Design and experiment of vehicular charger AC/DC system based on predictive control algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Guangbi; Quan, Shuhai; Lu, Yuzhang

2018-06-01

For the car charging stage rectifier uncontrollable system, this paper proposes a predictive control algorithm of DC/DC converter based on the prediction model, established by the state space average method and its prediction model, obtained by the optimal mathematical description of mathematical calculation, to analysis prediction algorithm by Simulink simulation. The design of the structure of the car charging, at the request of the rated output power and output voltage adjustable control circuit, the first stage is the three-phase uncontrolled rectifier DC voltage Ud through the filter capacitor, after by using double-phase interleaved buck-boost circuit with wide range output voltage required value, analyzing its working principle and the the parameters for the design and selection of components. The analysis of current ripple shows that the double staggered parallel connection has the advantages of reducing the output current ripple and reducing the loss. The simulation experiment of the whole charging circuit is carried out by software, and the result is in line with the design requirements of the system. Finally combining the soft with hardware circuit to achieve charging of the system according to the requirements, experimental platform proved the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed predictive control algorithm based on the car charging of the system, which is consistent with the simulation results.

Real-time Adaptive Control Using Neural Generalized Predictive Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haley, Pam; Soloway, Don; Gold, Brian

1999-01-01

The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of a Nonlinear Generalized Predictive Control algorithm by showing real-time adaptive control on a plant with relatively fast time-constants. Generalized Predictive Control has classically been used in process control where linear control laws were formulated for plants with relatively slow time-constants. The plant of interest for this paper is a magnetic levitation device that is nonlinear and open-loop unstable. In this application, the reference model of the plant is a neural network that has an embedded nominal linear model in the network weights. The control based on the linear model provides initial stability at the beginning of network training. In using a neural network the control laws are nonlinear and online adaptation of the model is possible to capture unmodeled or time-varying dynamics. Newton-Raphson is the minimization algorithm. Newton-Raphson requires the calculation of the Hessian, but even with this computational expense the low iteration rate make this a viable algorithm for real-time control.

Development and Implementation of a Hardware In-the-Loop Test Bed for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Control Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nyangweso, Emmanuel; Bole, Brian

2014-01-01

Successful prediction and management of battery life using prognostic algorithms through ground and flight tests is important for performance evaluation of electrical systems. This paper details the design of test beds suitable for replicating loading profiles that would be encountered in deployed electrical systems. The test bed data will be used to develop and validate prognostic algorithms for predicting battery discharge time and battery failure time. Online battery prognostic algorithms will enable health management strategies. The platform used for algorithm demonstration is the EDGE 540T electric unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The fully designed test beds developed and detailed in this paper can be used to conduct battery life tests by controlling current and recording voltage and temperature to develop a model that makes a prediction of end-of-charge and end-of-life of the system based on rapid state of health (SOH) assessment.

Enhanced pid vs model predictive control applied to bldc motor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaya, M. S.; Muhammad, Auwal; Aliyu Abdulkadir, Rabiu; Salim, S. N. S.; Madugu, I. S.; Tijjani, Aminu; Aminu Yusuf, Lukman; Dauda Umar, Ibrahim; Khairi, M. T. M.

2018-01-01

BrushLess Direct Current (BLDC) motor is a multivariable and highly complex nonlinear system. Variation of internal parameter values with environment or reference signal increases the difficulty in controlling the BLDC effectively. Advanced control strategies (like model predictive control) often have to be integrated to satisfy the control desires. Enhancing or proper tuning of a conventional algorithm results in achieving the desired performance. This paper presents a performance comparison of Enhanced PID and Model Predictive Control (MPC) applied to brushless direct current motor. The simulation results demonstrated that the PSO-PID is slightly better than the PID and MPC in tracking the trajectory of the reference signal. The proposed scheme could be useful algorithms for the system.

Effectiveness of a Predictive Algorithm in the Prevention of Exercise-Induced Hypoglycemia in Type 1 Diabetes.

PubMed

Abraham, Mary B; Davey, Raymond; O'Grady, Michael J; Ly, Trang T; Paramalingam, Nirubasini; Fournier, Paul A; Roy, Anirban; Grosman, Benyamin; Kurtz, Natalie; Fairchild, Janice M; King, Bruce R; Ambler, Geoffrey R; Cameron, Fergus; Jones, Timothy W; Davis, Elizabeth A

2016-09-01

Sensor-augmented pump therapy (SAPT) with a predictive algorithm to suspend insulin delivery has the potential to reduce hypoglycemia, a known obstacle in improving physical activity in patients with type 1 diabetes. The predictive low glucose management (PLGM) system employs a predictive algorithm that suspends basal insulin when hypoglycemia is predicted. The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of this algorithm in the prevention of exercise-induced hypoglycemia under in-clinic conditions. This was a randomized, controlled cross-over study in which 25 participants performed 2 consecutive sessions of 30 min of moderate-intensity exercise while on basal continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion on 2 study days: a control day with SAPT alone and an intervention day with SAPT and PLGM. The predictive algorithm suspended basal insulin when sensor glucose was predicted to be below the preset hypoglycemic threshold in 30 min. We tested preset hypoglycemic thresholds of 70 and 80 mg/dL. The primary outcome was the requirement for hypoglycemia treatment (symptomatic hypoglycemia with plasma glucose <63 mg/dL or plasma glucose <50 mg/dL) and was compared in both control and intervention arms. Results were analyzed in 19 participants. In the intervention arm with both thresholds, only 6 participants (32%) required treatment for hypoglycemia compared with 17 participants (89%) in the control arm (P = 0.003). In participants with a 2-h pump suspension on intervention days, the plasma glucose was 84 ± 12 and 99 ± 24 mg/dL at thresholds of 70 and 80 mg/dL, respectively. SAPT with PLGM reduced the need for hypoglycemia treatment after moderate-intensity exercise in an in-clinic setting.

Model predictive and reallocation problem for CubeSat fault recovery and attitude control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franchi, Loris; Feruglio, Lorenzo; Mozzillo, Raffaele; Corpino, Sabrina

2018-01-01

In recent years, thanks to the increase of the know-how on machine-learning techniques and the advance of the computational capabilities of on-board processing, expensive computing algorithms, such as Model Predictive Control, have begun to spread in space applications even on small on-board processor. The paper presents an algorithm for an optimal fault recovery of a 3U CubeSat, developed in MathWorks Matlab & Simulink environment. This algorithm involves optimization techniques aiming at obtaining the optimal recovery solution, and involves a Model Predictive Control approach for the attitude control. The simulated system is a CubeSat in Low Earth Orbit: the attitude control is performed with three magnetic torquers and a single reaction wheel. The simulation neglects the errors in the attitude determination of the satellite, and focuses on the recovery approach and control method. The optimal recovery approach takes advantage of the properties of magnetic actuation, which gives the possibility of the redistribution of the control action when a fault occurs on a single magnetic torquer, even in absence of redundant actuators. In addition, the paper presents the results of the implementation of Model Predictive approach to control the attitude of the satellite.

Predictive control and estimation algorithms for the NASA/JPL 70-meter antennas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gawronski, W.

1991-01-01

A modified output prediction procedure and a new controller design is presented based on the predictive control law. Also, a new predictive estimator is developed to complement the controller and to enhance system performance. The predictive controller is designed and applied to the tracking control of the Deep Space Network 70 m antennas. Simulation results show significant improvement in tracking performance over the linear quadratic controller and estimator presently in use.

Methods for predicting properties and tailoring salt solutions for industrial processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ally, Moonis R.

1993-01-01

An algorithm developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory accurately and quickly predicts thermodynamic properties of concentrated aqueous salt solutions. This algorithm is much simpler and much faster than other modeling schemes and is unique because it can predict solution behavior at very high concentrations and under varying conditions. Typical industrial applications of this algorithm would be in manufacture of inorganic chemicals by crystallization, thermal storage, refrigeration and cooling, extraction of metals, emissions controls, etc.

Inaccuracy of Wolff-Parkinson-white accessory pathway localization algorithms in children and patients with congenital heart defects.

PubMed

Bar-Cohen, Yaniv; Khairy, Paul; Morwood, James; Alexander, Mark E; Cecchin, Frank; Berul, Charles I

2006-07-01

ECG algorithms used to localize accessory pathways (AP) in patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome have been validated in adults, but less is known of their use in children, especially in patients with congenital heart disease (CHD). We hypothesize that these algorithms have low diagnostic accuracy in children and even lower in those with CHD. Pre-excited ECGs in 43 patients with WPW and CHD (median age 5.4 years [0.9-32 years]) were evaluated and compared to 43 consecutive WPW control patients without CHD (median age 14.5 years [1.8-18 years]). Two blinded observers predicted AP location using 2 adult and 1 pediatric WPW algorithms, and a third blinded observer served as a tiebreaker. Predicted locations were compared with ablation-verified AP location to identify (a) exact match for AP location and (b) match for laterality (left-sided vs right-sided AP). In control children, adult algorithms were accurate in only 56% and 60%, while the pediatric algorithm was correct in 77%. In 19 patients with Ebstein's anomaly, diagnostic accuracy was similar to controls with at times an even better ability to predict laterality. In non-Ebstein's CHD, however, the algorithms were markedly worse (29% for the adult algorithms and 42% for the pediatric algorithms). A relatively large degree of interobserver variability was seen (kappa values from 0.30 to 0.58). Adult localization algorithms have poor diagnostic accuracy in young patients with and without CHD. Both adult and pediatric algorithms are particularly misleading in non-Ebstein's CHD patients and should be interpreted with caution.

Small Body GN&C Research Report: A Robust Model Predictive Control Algorithm with Guaranteed Resolvability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Behcet A.; Carson, John M., III

2005-01-01

A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees the resolvability of the associated finite-horizon optimal control problem in a receding-horizon implementation. The control consists of two components; (i) feedforward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives, and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

A robust model predictive control algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems that guarantees resolvability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Ahmet Behcet; Carson, John M., III

2006-01-01

A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees resolvability. With resolvability, initial feasibility of the finite-horizon optimal control problem implies future feasibility in a receding-horizon framework. The control consists of two components; (i) feed-forward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

Basic Research on Adaptive Model Algorithmic Control

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-12-01

Control Conference. Richalet, J., A. Rault, J.L. Testud and J. Papon (1978). Model predictive heuristic control: applications to industrial...pp.977-982. Richalet, J., A. Rault, J. L. Testud and J. Papon (1978). Model predictive heuristic control: applications to industrial processes

Numerical analysis of moving contact line with contact angle hysteresis using feedback deceleration technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jun Kwon; Kang, Kwan Hyoung

2012-04-01

Contact angle (CA) hysteresis is important in many natural and engineering wetting processes, but predicting it numerically is difficult. We developed an algorithm that considers CA hysteresis when analyzing the motion of the contact line (CL). This algorithm employs feedback control of CA which decelerates CL speed to make the CL stationary in the hysteretic range of CA, and one control coefficient should be heuristically determined depending on characteristic time of the simulated system. The algorithm requires embedding only a simple additional routine with little modification of a code which considers the dynamic CA. The method is non-iterative and explicit, and also has less computational load than other algorithms. For a drop hanging on a wire, the proposed algorithm accurately predicts the theoretical equilibrium CA. For the drop impacting on a dry surface, the results of the proposed algorithm agree well with experimental results including the intermittent occurrence of the pinning of CL. The proposed algorithm is as accurate as other algorithms, but faster.

Closed-loop control of artificial pancreatic Beta -cell in type 1 diabetes mellitus using model predictive iterative learning control.

PubMed

Wang, Youqing; Dassau, Eyal; Doyle, Francis J

2010-02-01

A novel combination of iterative learning control (ILC) and model predictive control (MPC), referred to here as model predictive iterative learning control (MPILC), is proposed for glycemic control in type 1 diabetes mellitus. MPILC exploits two key factors: frequent glucose readings made possible by continuous glucose monitoring technology; and the repetitive nature of glucose-meal-insulin dynamics with a 24-h cycle. The proposed algorithm can learn from an individual's lifestyle, allowing the control performance to be improved from day to day. After less than 10 days, the blood glucose concentrations can be kept within a range of 90-170 mg/dL. Generally, control performance under MPILC is better than that under MPC. The proposed methodology is robust to random variations in meal timings within +/-60 min or meal amounts within +/-75% of the nominal value, which validates MPILC's superior robustness compared to run-to-run control. Moreover, to further improve the algorithm's robustness, an automatic scheme for setpoint update that ensures safe convergence is proposed. Furthermore, the proposed method does not require user intervention; hence, the algorithm should be of particular interest for glycemic control in children and adolescents.

Algorithms for a Closed-Loop Artificial Pancreas: The Case for Model Predictive Control

PubMed Central

Bequette, B. Wayne

2013-01-01

The relative merits of model predictive control (MPC) and proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control are discussed, with the end goal of a closed-loop artificial pancreas (AP). It is stressed that neither MPC nor PID are single algorithms, but rather are approaches or strategies that may be implemented very differently by different engineers. The primary advantages to MPC are that (i) constraints on the insulin delivery rate (and/or insulin on board) can be explicitly included in the control calculation; (ii) it is a general framework that makes it relatively easy to include the effect of meals, exercise, and other events that are a function of the time of day; and (iii) it is flexible enough to include many different objectives, from set-point tracking (target) to zone (control to range). In the end, however, it is recognized that the control algorithm, while important, represents only a portion of the effort required to develop a closed-loop AP. Thus, any number of algorithms/approaches can be successful—the engineers involved in the design must have experience with the particular technique, including the important experience of implementing the algorithm in human studies and not simply through simulation studies. PMID:24351190

NASA Acting Deputy Chief Technologist Briefed on Operation of Sonic Boom Prediction Algorithms

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-08-29

NASA Acting Deputy Chief Technologist Vicki Crips being briefed by Tim Cox, Controls Engineer at NASA’s Armstrong Flight Research Center at Edwards, California, on the operation of the sonic boom prediction algorithms being used in engineering simulation for the NASA Supersonic Quest program.

Statistics based sampling for controller and estimator design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tenne, Dirk

The purpose of this research is the development of statistical design tools for robust feed-forward/feedback controllers and nonlinear estimators. This dissertation is threefold and addresses the aforementioned topics nonlinear estimation, target tracking and robust control. To develop statistically robust controllers and nonlinear estimation algorithms, research has been performed to extend existing techniques, which propagate the statistics of the state, to achieve higher order accuracy. The so-called unscented transformation has been extended to capture higher order moments. Furthermore, higher order moment update algorithms based on a truncated power series have been developed. The proposed techniques are tested on various benchmark examples. Furthermore, the unscented transformation has been utilized to develop a three dimensional geometrically constrained target tracker. The proposed planar circular prediction algorithm has been developed in a local coordinate framework, which is amenable to extension of the tracking algorithm to three dimensional space. This tracker combines the predictions of a circular prediction algorithm and a constant velocity filter by utilizing the Covariance Intersection. This combined prediction can be updated with the subsequent measurement using a linear estimator. The proposed technique is illustrated on a 3D benchmark trajectory, which includes coordinated turns and straight line maneuvers. The third part of this dissertation addresses the design of controller which include knowledge of parametric uncertainties and their distributions. The parameter distributions are approximated by a finite set of points which are calculated by the unscented transformation. This set of points is used to design robust controllers which minimize a statistical performance of the plant over the domain of uncertainty consisting of a combination of the mean and variance. The proposed technique is illustrated on three benchmark problems. The first relates to the design of prefilters for a linear and nonlinear spring-mass-dashpot system and the second applies a feedback controller to a hovering helicopter. Lastly, the statistical robust controller design is devoted to a concurrent feed-forward/feedback controller structure for a high-speed low tension tape drive.

Optimal input selection for neural machine interfaces predicting multiple non-explicit outputs.

PubMed

Krepkovich, Eileen T; Perreault, Eric J

2008-01-01

This study implemented a novel algorithm that optimally selects inputs for neural machine interface (NMI) devices intended to control multiple outputs and evaluated its performance on systems lacking explicit output. NMIs often incorporate signals from multiple physiological sources and provide predictions for multidimensional control, leading to multiple-input multiple-output systems. Further, NMIs often are used with subjects who have motor disabilities and thus lack explicit motor outputs. Our algorithm was tested on simulated multiple-input multiple-output systems and on electromyogram and kinematic data collected from healthy subjects performing arm reaches. Effects of output noise in simulated systems indicated that the algorithm could be useful for systems with poor estimates of the output states, as is true for systems lacking explicit motor output. To test efficacy on physiological data, selection was performed using inputs from one subject and outputs from a different subject. Selection was effective for these cases, again indicating that this algorithm will be useful for predictions where there is no motor output, as often is the case for disabled subjects. Further, prediction results generalized for different movement types not used for estimation. These results demonstrate the efficacy of this algorithm for the development of neural machine interfaces.

Trajectory Control of Rendezvous with Maneuver Target Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Zhinqiang

2012-01-01

In this paper, a nonlinear trajectory control algorithm of rendezvous with maneuvering target spacecraft is presented. The disturbance forces on the chaser and target spacecraft and the thrust forces on the chaser spacecraft are considered in the analysis. The control algorithm developed in this paper uses the relative distance and relative velocity between the target and chaser spacecraft as the inputs. A general formula of reference relative trajectory of the chaser spacecraft to the target spacecraft is developed and applied to four different proximity maneuvers, which are in-track circling, cross-track circling, in-track spiral rendezvous and cross-track spiral rendezvous. The closed-loop differential equations of the proximity relative motion with the control algorithm are derived. It is proven in the paper that the tracking errors between the commanded relative trajectory and the actual relative trajectory are bounded within a constant region determined by the control gains. The prediction of the tracking errors is obtained. Design examples are provided to show the implementation of the control algorithm. The simulation results show that the actual relative trajectory tracks the commanded relative trajectory tightly. The predicted tracking errors match those calculated in the simulation results. The control algorithm developed in this paper can also be applied to interception of maneuver target spacecraft and relative trajectory control of spacecraft formation flying.

Network congestion control algorithm based on Actor-Critic reinforcement learning model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Tao; Gong, Lina; Zhang, Wei; Li, Xuhong; Wang, Xia; Pan, Wenwen

2018-04-01

Aiming at the network congestion control problem, a congestion control algorithm based on Actor-Critic reinforcement learning model is designed. Through the genetic algorithm in the congestion control strategy, the network congestion problems can be better found and prevented. According to Actor-Critic reinforcement learning, the simulation experiment of network congestion control algorithm is designed. The simulation experiments verify that the AQM controller can predict the dynamic characteristics of the network system. Moreover, the learning strategy is adopted to optimize the network performance, and the dropping probability of packets is adaptively adjusted so as to improve the network performance and avoid congestion. Based on the above finding, it is concluded that the network congestion control algorithm based on Actor-Critic reinforcement learning model can effectively avoid the occurrence of TCP network congestion.

Analysis of Bioactive Amino Acids from Fish Hydrolysates with a New Bioinformatic Intelligent System Approach.

PubMed

Elaziz, Mohamed Abd; Hemdan, Ahmed Monem; Hassanien, AboulElla; Oliva, Diego; Xiong, Shengwu

2017-09-07

The current economics of the fish protein industry demand rapid, accurate and expressive prediction algorithms at every step of protein production especially with the challenge of global climate change. This help to predict and analyze functional and nutritional quality then consequently control food allergies in hyper allergic patients. As, it is quite expensive and time-consuming to know these concentrations by the lab experimental tests, especially to conduct large-scale projects. Therefore, this paper introduced a new intelligent algorithm using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system based on whale optimization algorithm. This algorithm is used to predict the concentration levels of bioactive amino acids in fish protein hydrolysates at different times during the year. The whale optimization algorithm is used to determine the optimal parameters in adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. The results of proposed algorithm are compared with others and it is indicated the higher performance of the proposed algorithm.

A model predictive speed tracking control approach for autonomous ground vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Min; Chen, Huiyan; Xiong, Guangming

2017-03-01

This paper presents a novel speed tracking control approach based on a model predictive control (MPC) framework for autonomous ground vehicles. A switching algorithm without calibration is proposed to determine the drive or brake control. Combined with a simple inverse longitudinal vehicle model and adaptive regulation of MPC, this algorithm can make use of the engine brake torque for various driving conditions and avoid high frequency oscillations automatically. A simplified quadratic program (QP) solving algorithm is used to reduce the computational time, and the approach has been applied in a 16-bit microcontroller. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated via simulations and vehicle tests, which were carried out in a range of speed-profile tracking tasks. With a well-designed system structure, high-precision speed control is achieved. The system can robustly model uncertainty and external disturbances, and yields a faster response with less overshoot than a PI controller.

Adaptive adjustment of interval predictive control based on combined model and application in shell brand petroleum distillation tower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Chao; Zhang, Chunran; Gu, Xinfeng; Liu, Bin

2017-10-01

Constraints of the optimization objective are often unable to be met when predictive control is applied to industrial production process. Then, online predictive controller will not find a feasible solution or a global optimal solution. To solve this problem, based on Back Propagation-Auto Regressive with exogenous inputs (BP-ARX) combined control model, nonlinear programming method is used to discuss the feasibility of constrained predictive control, feasibility decision theorem of the optimization objective is proposed, and the solution method of soft constraint slack variables is given when the optimization objective is not feasible. Based on this, for the interval control requirements of the controlled variables, the slack variables that have been solved are introduced, the adaptive weighted interval predictive control algorithm is proposed, achieving adaptive regulation of the optimization objective and automatically adjust of the infeasible interval range, expanding the scope of the feasible region, and ensuring the feasibility of the interval optimization objective. Finally, feasibility and effectiveness of the algorithm is validated through the simulation comparative experiments.

Adaptive MPC based on MIMO ARX-Laguerre model.

PubMed

Ben Abdelwahed, Imen; Mbarek, Abdelkader; Bouzrara, Kais

2017-03-01

This paper proposes a method for synthesizing an adaptive predictive controller using a reduced complexity model. This latter is given by the projection of the ARX model on Laguerre bases. The resulting model is entitled MIMO ARX-Laguerre and it is characterized by an easy recursive representation. The adaptive predictive control law is computed based on multi-step-ahead finite-element predictors, identified directly from experimental input/output data. The model is tuned in each iteration by an online identification algorithms of both model parameters and Laguerre poles. The proposed approach avoids time consuming numerical optimization algorithms associated with most common linear predictive control strategies, which makes it suitable for real-time implementation. The method is used to synthesize and test in numerical simulations adaptive predictive controllers for the CSTR process benchmark. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strategies for concurrent processing of complex algorithms in data driven architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoughton, John W.; Mielke, Roland R.; Som, Sukhamony

1990-01-01

The performance modeling and enhancement for periodic execution of large-grain, decision-free algorithms in data flow architectures is examined. Applications include real-time implementation of control and signal processing algorithms where performance is required to be highly predictable. The mapping of algorithms onto the specified class of data flow architectures is realized by a marked graph model called ATAMM (Algorithm To Architecture Mapping Model). Performance measures and bounds are established. Algorithm transformation techniques are identified for performance enhancement and reduction of resource (computing element) requirements. A systematic design procedure is described for generating operating conditions for predictable performance both with and without resource constraints. An ATAMM simulator is used to test and validate the performance prediction by the design procedure. Experiments on a three resource testbed provide verification of the ATAMM model and the design procedure.

Strategies for concurrent processing of complex algorithms in data driven architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Som, Sukhamoy; Stoughton, John W.; Mielke, Roland R.

1990-01-01

Performance modeling and performance enhancement for periodic execution of large-grain, decision-free algorithms in data flow architectures are discussed. Applications include real-time implementation of control and signal processing algorithms where performance is required to be highly predictable. The mapping of algorithms onto the specified class of data flow architectures is realized by a marked graph model called algorithm to architecture mapping model (ATAMM). Performance measures and bounds are established. Algorithm transformation techniques are identified for performance enhancement and reduction of resource (computing element) requirements. A systematic design procedure is described for generating operating conditions for predictable performance both with and without resource constraints. An ATAMM simulator is used to test and validate the performance prediction by the design procedure. Experiments on a three resource testbed provide verification of the ATAMM model and the design procedure.

Programmable logic controller implementation of an auto-tuned predictive control based on minimal plant information.

PubMed

Valencia-Palomo, G; Rossiter, J A

2011-01-01

This paper makes two key contributions. First, it tackles the issue of the availability of constrained predictive control for low-level control loops. Hence, it describes how the constrained control algorithm is embedded in an industrial programmable logic controller (PLC) using the IEC 61131-3 programming standard. Second, there is a definition and implementation of a novel auto-tuned predictive controller; the key novelty is that the modelling is based on relatively crude but pragmatic plant information. Laboratory experiment tests were carried out in two bench-scale laboratory systems to prove the effectiveness of the combined algorithm and hardware solution. For completeness, the results are compared with a commercial proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller (also embedded in the PLC) using the most up to date auto-tuning rules. Copyright © 2010 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High capacity reversible watermarking for audio by histogram shifting and predicted error expansion.

PubMed

Wang, Fei; Xie, Zhaoxin; Chen, Zuo

2014-01-01

Being reversible, the watermarking information embedded in audio signals can be extracted while the original audio data can achieve lossless recovery. Currently, the few reversible audio watermarking algorithms are confronted with following problems: relatively low SNR (signal-to-noise) of embedded audio; a large amount of auxiliary embedded location information; and the absence of accurate capacity control capability. In this paper, we present a novel reversible audio watermarking scheme based on improved prediction error expansion and histogram shifting. First, we use differential evolution algorithm to optimize prediction coefficients and then apply prediction error expansion to output stego data. Second, in order to reduce location map bits length, we introduced histogram shifting scheme. Meanwhile, the prediction error modification threshold according to a given embedding capacity can be computed by our proposed scheme. Experiments show that this algorithm improves the SNR of embedded audio signals and embedding capacity, drastically reduces location map bits length, and enhances capacity control capability.

Aircraft Engine Thrust Estimator Design Based on GSA-LSSVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Hanlin; Zhang, Tianhong

2017-08-01

In view of the necessity of highly precise and reliable thrust estimator to achieve direct thrust control of aircraft engine, based on support vector regression (SVR), as well as least square support vector machine (LSSVM) and a new optimization algorithm - gravitational search algorithm (GSA), by performing integrated modelling and parameter optimization, a GSA-LSSVM-based thrust estimator design solution is proposed. The results show that compared to particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, GSA can find unknown optimization parameter better and enables the model developed with better prediction and generalization ability. The model can better predict aircraft engine thrust and thus fulfills the need of direct thrust control of aircraft engine.

Outdoor flocking of quadcopter drones with decentralized model predictive control.

PubMed

Yuan, Quan; Zhan, Jingyuan; Li, Xiang

2017-11-01

In this paper, we present a multi-drone system featured with a decentralized model predictive control (DMPC) flocking algorithm. The drones gather localized information from neighbors and update their velocities using the DMPC flocking algorithm. In the multi-drone system, data packages are transmitted through XBee ® wireless modules in broadcast mode, yielding such an anonymous and decentralized system where all the calculations and controls are completed on an onboard minicomputer of each drone. Each drone is a double-layered agent system with the coordination layer running multi-drone flocking algorithms and the flight control layer navigating the drone, and the final formation of the flock relies on both the communication range and the desired inter-drone distance. We give both numerical simulations and field tests with a flock of five drones, showing that the DMPC flocking algorithm performs well on the presented multi-drone system in both the convergence rate and the ability of tracking a desired path. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Active control strategy for the running attitude of high-speed train under strong crosswind condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Decang; Meng, Jianjun; Bai, Huan; Xu, Ruxun

2018-07-01

This paper focuses on the safety of high-speed trains under strong crosswind conditions. A new active control strategy is proposed based on the adaptive predictive control theory. The new control strategy aims at adjusting the attitudes of a train by controlling the new-type intelligent giant magnetostrictive actuator (GMA). It combined adaptive control with dynamic matrix control; parameters of predictive controller was real-time adjusted by online distinguishing to enhance the robustness of the control algorithm. On this basis, a correction control algorithm is also designed to regulate the parameters of predictive controller based on the step response of a controlled objective. Finally, the simulation results show that the proposed control strategy can adjust the running attitudes of high-speed trains under strong crosswind conditions; they also indicate that the new active control strategy is effective and applicable in improving the safety performance of a train based on a host-target computer technology provided by Matlab/Simulink.

Serious injury prediction algorithm based on large-scale data and under-triage control.

PubMed

Nishimoto, Tetsuya; Mukaigawa, Kosuke; Tominaga, Shigeru; Lubbe, Nils; Kiuchi, Toru; Motomura, Tomokazu; Matsumoto, Hisashi

2017-01-01

The present study was undertaken to construct an algorithm for an advanced automatic collision notification system based on national traffic accident data compiled by Japanese police. While US research into the development of a serious-injury prediction algorithm is based on a logistic regression algorithm using the National Automotive Sampling System/Crashworthiness Data System, the present injury prediction algorithm was based on comprehensive police data covering all accidents that occurred across Japan. The particular focus of this research is to improve the rescue of injured vehicle occupants in traffic accidents, and the present algorithm assumes the use of an onboard event data recorder data from which risk factors such as pseudo delta-V, vehicle impact location, seatbelt wearing or non-wearing, involvement in a single impact or multiple impact crash and the occupant's age can be derived. As a result, a simple and handy algorithm suited for onboard vehicle installation was constructed from a sample of half of the available police data. The other half of the police data was applied to the validation testing of this new algorithm using receiver operating characteristic analysis. An additional validation was conducted using in-depth investigation of accident injuries in collaboration with prospective host emergency care institutes. The validated algorithm, named the TOYOTA-Nihon University algorithm, proved to be as useful as the US URGENCY and other existing algorithms. Furthermore, an under-triage control analysis found that the present algorithm could achieve an under-triage rate of less than 10% by setting a threshold of 8.3%. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distributed model predictive control for constrained nonlinear systems with decoupled local dynamics.

PubMed

Zhao, Meng; Ding, Baocang

2015-03-01

This paper considers the distributed model predictive control (MPC) of nonlinear large-scale systems with dynamically decoupled subsystems. According to the coupled state in the overall cost function of centralized MPC, the neighbors are confirmed and fixed for each subsystem, and the overall objective function is disassembled into each local optimization. In order to guarantee the closed-loop stability of distributed MPC algorithm, the overall compatibility constraint for centralized MPC algorithm is decomposed into each local controller. The communication between each subsystem and its neighbors is relatively low, only the current states before optimization and the optimized input variables after optimization are being transferred. For each local controller, the quasi-infinite horizon MPC algorithm is adopted, and the global closed-loop system is proven to be exponentially stable. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation analysis of adaptive cruise prediction control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Li; Cui, Sheng Min

2017-09-01

Predictive control is suitable for multi-variable and multi-constraint system control.In order to discuss the effect of predictive control on the vehicle longitudinal motion, this paper establishes the expected spacing model by combining variable pitch spacing and the of safety distance strategy. The model predictive control theory and the optimization method based on secondary planning are designed to obtain and track the best expected acceleration trajectory quickly. Simulation models are established including predictive and adaptive fuzzy control. Simulation results show that predictive control can realize the basic function of the system while ensuring the safety. The application of predictive and fuzzy adaptive algorithm in cruise condition indicates that the predictive control effect is better.

Predicting coronary artery disease using different artificial neural network models.

PubMed

Colak, M Cengiz; Colak, Cemil; Kocatürk, Hasan; Sağiroğlu, Seref; Barutçu, Irfan

2008-08-01

Eight different learning algorithms used for creating artificial neural network (ANN) models and the different ANN models in the prediction of coronary artery disease (CAD) are introduced. This work was carried out as a retrospective case-control study. Overall, 124 consecutive patients who had been diagnosed with CAD by coronary angiography (at least 1 coronary stenosis > 50% in major epicardial arteries) were enrolled in the work. Angiographically, the 113 people (group 2) with normal coronary arteries were taken as control subjects. Multi-layered perceptrons ANN architecture were applied. The ANN models trained with different learning algorithms were performed in 237 records, divided into training (n=171) and testing (n=66) data sets. The performance of prediction was evaluated by sensitivity, specificity and accuracy values based on standard definitions. The results have demonstrated that ANN models trained with eight different learning algorithms are promising because of high (greater than 71%) sensitivity, specificity and accuracy values in the prediction of CAD. Accuracy, sensitivity and specificity values varied between 83.63%-100%, 86.46%-100% and 74.67%-100% for training, respectively. For testing, the values were more than 71% for sensitivity, 76% for specificity and 81% for accuracy. It may be proposed that the use of different learning algorithms other than backpropagation and larger sample sizes can improve the performance of prediction. The proposed ANN models trained with these learning algorithms could be used a promising approach for predicting CAD without the need for invasive diagnostic methods and could help in the prognostic clinical decision.

Feed-Forward Neural Network Soft-Sensor Modeling of Flotation Process Based on Particle Swarm Optimization and Gravitational Search Algorithm

PubMed Central

Wang, Jie-Sheng; Han, Shuang

2015-01-01

For predicting the key technology indicators (concentrate grade and tailings recovery rate) of flotation process, a feed-forward neural network (FNN) based soft-sensor model optimized by the hybrid algorithm combining particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm and gravitational search algorithm (GSA) is proposed. Although GSA has better optimization capability, it has slow convergence velocity and is easy to fall into local optimum. So in this paper, the velocity vector and position vector of GSA are adjusted by PSO algorithm in order to improve its convergence speed and prediction accuracy. Finally, the proposed hybrid algorithm is adopted to optimize the parameters of FNN soft-sensor model. Simulation results show that the model has better generalization and prediction accuracy for the concentrate grade and tailings recovery rate to meet the online soft-sensor requirements of the real-time control in the flotation process. PMID:26583034

Algorithms for detecting and predicting influenza outbreaks: metanarrative review of prospective evaluations

PubMed Central

Spreco, A; Timpka, T

2016-01-01

Objectives Reliable monitoring of influenza seasons and pandemic outbreaks is essential for response planning, but compilations of reports on detection and prediction algorithm performance in influenza control practice are largely missing. The aim of this study is to perform a metanarrative review of prospective evaluations of influenza outbreak detection and prediction algorithms restricted settings where authentic surveillance data have been used. Design The study was performed as a metanarrative review. An electronic literature search was performed, papers selected and qualitative and semiquantitative content analyses were conducted. For data extraction and interpretations, researcher triangulation was used for quality assurance. Results Eight prospective evaluations were found that used authentic surveillance data: three studies evaluating detection and five studies evaluating prediction. The methodological perspectives and experiences from the evaluations were found to have been reported in narrative formats representing biodefence informatics and health policy research, respectively. The biodefence informatics narrative having an emphasis on verification of technically and mathematically sound algorithms constituted a large part of the reporting. Four evaluations were reported as health policy research narratives, thus formulated in a manner that allows the results to qualify as policy evidence. Conclusions Awareness of the narrative format in which results are reported is essential when interpreting algorithm evaluations from an infectious disease control practice perspective. PMID:27154479

Development of a Low-Lift Chiller Controller and Simplified Precooling Control Algorithm - Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gayeski, N.; Armstrong, Peter; Alvira, M.

2011-11-30

KGS Buildings LLC (KGS) and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) have developed a simplified control algorithm and prototype low-lift chiller controller suitable for model-predictive control in a demonstration project of low-lift cooling. Low-lift cooling is a highly efficient cooling strategy conceived to enable low or net-zero energy buildings. A low-lift cooling system consists of a high efficiency low-lift chiller, radiant cooling, thermal storage, and model-predictive control to pre-cool thermal storage overnight on an optimal cooling rate trajectory. We call the properly integrated and controlled combination of these elements a low-lift cooling system (LLCS). This document is the final report formore » that project.« less

Outpatient safety assessment of an in-home predictive low-glucose suspend system with type 1 diabetes subjects at elevated risk of nocturnal hypoglycemia.

PubMed

Buckingham, Bruce A; Cameron, Fraser; Calhoun, Peter; Maahs, David M; Wilson, Darrell M; Chase, H Peter; Bequette, B Wayne; Lum, John; Sibayan, Judy; Beck, Roy W; Kollman, Craig

2013-08-01

Nocturnal hypoglycemia is a common problem with type 1 diabetes. In the home setting, we conducted a pilot study to evaluate the safety of a system consisting of an insulin pump and continuous glucose monitor communicating wirelessly with a bedside computer running an algorithm that temporarily suspends insulin delivery when hypoglycemia is predicted. After the run-in phase, a 21-night randomized trial was conducted in which each night was randomly assigned 2:1 to have either the predictive low-glucose suspend (PLGS) system active (intervention night) or inactive (control night). Three predictive algorithm versions were studied sequentially during the study for a total of 252 intervention and 123 control nights. The trial included 19 participants 18-56 years old with type 1 diabetes (hemoglobin A1c level of 6.0-7.7%) who were current users of the MiniMed Paradigm® REAL-Time Revel™ System and Sof-sensor® glucose sensor (Medtronic Diabetes, Northridge, CA). With the final algorithm, pump suspension occurred on 53% of 77 intervention nights. Mean morning glucose level was 144±48 mg/dL on the 77 intervention nights versus 133±57 mg/dL on the 37 control nights, with morning blood ketones >0.6 mmol/L following one intervention night. Overnight hypoglycemia was lower on intervention than control nights, with at least one value ≤70 mg/dL occurring on 16% versus 30% of nights, respectively, with the final algorithm. This study demonstrated that the PLGS system in the home setting is safe and feasible. The preliminary efficacy data appear promising with the final algorithm reducing nocturnal hypoglycemia by almost 50%.

Fault diagnosis and fault-tolerant finite control set-model predictive control of a multiphase voltage-source inverter supplying BLDC motor.

PubMed

Salehifar, Mehdi; Moreno-Equilaz, Manuel

2016-01-01

Due to its fault tolerance, a multiphase brushless direct current (BLDC) motor can meet high reliability demand for application in electric vehicles. The voltage-source inverter (VSI) supplying the motor is subjected to open circuit faults. Therefore, it is necessary to design a fault-tolerant (FT) control algorithm with an embedded fault diagnosis (FD) block. In this paper, finite control set-model predictive control (FCS-MPC) is developed to implement the fault-tolerant control algorithm of a five-phase BLDC motor. The developed control method is fast, simple, and flexible. A FD method based on available information from the control block is proposed; this method is simple, robust to common transients in motor and able to localize multiple open circuit faults. The proposed FD and FT control algorithm are embedded in a five-phase BLDC motor drive. In order to validate the theory presented, simulation and experimental results are conducted on a five-phase two-level VSI supplying a five-phase BLDC motor. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accounting of fundamental components of the rotation parameters of the Earth in the formation of a high-accuracy orbit of navigation satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markov, Yu. G.; Mikhailov, M. V.; Pochukaev, V. N.

2012-07-01

An analysis of perturbing factors influencing the motion of a navigation satellite (NS) is carried out, and the degree of influence of each factor on the GLONASS orbit is estimated. It is found that fundamental components of the Earth's rotation parameters (ERP) are one substantial factor commensurable with maximum perturbations. Algorithms for the calculation of orbital perturbations caused by these parameters are given; these algorithms can be implemented in a consumer's equipment. The daily prediction of NS coordinates is performed on the basis of real GLONASS satellite ephemerides transmitted to a consumer, using the developed prediction algorithms taking the ERP into account. The obtained accuracy of the daily prediction of GLONASS ephemerides exceeds by tens of times the accuracy of the daily prediction performed using algorithms recommended in interface control documents.

Initial Evaluations of LoC Prediction Algorithms Using the NASA Vertical Motion Simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krishnakumar, Kalmanje; Stepanyan, Vahram; Barlow, Jonathan; Hardy, Gordon; Dorais, Greg; Poolla, Chaitanya; Reardon, Scott; Soloway, Donald

2014-01-01

Flying near the edge of the safe operating envelope is an inherently unsafe proposition. Edge of the envelope here implies that small changes or disturbances in system state or system dynamics can take the system out of the safe envelope in a short time and could result in loss-of-control events. This study evaluated approaches to predicting loss-of-control safety margins as the aircraft gets closer to the edge of the safe operating envelope. The goal of the approach is to provide the pilot aural, visual, and tactile cues focused on maintaining the pilot's control action within predicted loss-of-control boundaries. Our predictive architecture combines quantitative loss-of-control boundaries, an adaptive prediction method to estimate in real-time Markov model parameters and associated stability margins, and a real-time data-based predictive control margins estimation algorithm. The combined architecture is applied to a nonlinear transport class aircraft. Evaluations of various feedback cues using both test and commercial pilots in the NASA Ames Vertical Motion-base Simulator (VMS) were conducted in the summer of 2013. The paper presents results of this evaluation focused on effectiveness of these approaches and the cues in preventing the pilots from entering a loss-of-control event.

Comparison of predictive control methods for high consumption industrial furnace.

PubMed

Stojanovski, Goran; Stankovski, Mile

2013-01-01

We describe several predictive control approaches for high consumption industrial furnace control. These furnaces are major consumers in production industries, and reducing their fuel consumption and optimizing the quality of the products is one of the most important engineer tasks. In order to demonstrate the benefits from implementation of the advanced predictive control algorithms, we have compared several major criteria for furnace control. On the basis of the analysis, some important conclusions have been drawn.

Model-on-Demand Predictive Control for Nonlinear Hybrid Systems With Application to Adaptive Behavioral Interventions

PubMed Central

Nandola, Naresh N.; Rivera, Daniel E.

2011-01-01

This paper presents a data-centric modeling and predictive control approach for nonlinear hybrid systems. System identification of hybrid systems represents a challenging problem because model parameters depend on the mode or operating point of the system. The proposed algorithm applies Model-on-Demand (MoD) estimation to generate a local linear approximation of the nonlinear hybrid system at each time step, using a small subset of data selected by an adaptive bandwidth selector. The appeal of the MoD approach lies in the fact that model parameters are estimated based on a current operating point; hence estimation of locations or modes governed by autonomous discrete events is achieved automatically. The local MoD model is then converted into a mixed logical dynamical (MLD) system representation which can be used directly in a model predictive control (MPC) law for hybrid systems using multiple-degree-of-freedom tuning. The effectiveness of the proposed MoD predictive control algorithm for nonlinear hybrid systems is demonstrated on a hypothetical adaptive behavioral intervention problem inspired by Fast Track, a real-life preventive intervention for improving parental function and reducing conduct disorder in at-risk children. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can be useful for adaptive intervention problems exhibiting both nonlinear and hybrid character. PMID:21874087

A tuning algorithm for model predictive controllers based on genetic algorithms and fuzzy decision making.

PubMed

van der Lee, J H; Svrcek, W Y; Young, B R

2008-01-01

Model Predictive Control is a valuable tool for the process control engineer in a wide variety of applications. Because of this the structure of an MPC can vary dramatically from application to application. There have been a number of works dedicated to MPC tuning for specific cases. Since MPCs can differ significantly, this means that these tuning methods become inapplicable and a trial and error tuning approach must be used. This can be quite time consuming and can result in non-optimum tuning. In an attempt to resolve this, a generalized automated tuning algorithm for MPCs was developed. This approach is numerically based and combines a genetic algorithm with multi-objective fuzzy decision-making. The key advantages to this approach are that genetic algorithms are not problem specific and only need to be adapted to account for the number and ranges of tuning parameters for a given MPC. As well, multi-objective fuzzy decision-making can handle qualitative statements of what optimum control is, in addition to being able to use multiple inputs to determine tuning parameters that best match the desired results. This is particularly useful for multi-input, multi-output (MIMO) cases where the definition of "optimum" control is subject to the opinion of the control engineer tuning the system. A case study will be presented in order to illustrate the use of the tuning algorithm. This will include how different definitions of "optimum" control can arise, and how they are accounted for in the multi-objective decision making algorithm. The resulting tuning parameters from each of the definition sets will be compared, and in doing so show that the tuning parameters vary in order to meet each definition of optimum control, thus showing the generalized automated tuning algorithm approach for tuning MPCs is feasible.

Temperature control in a solar collector field using Filtered Dynamic Matrix Control.

PubMed

Lima, Daniel Martins; Normey-Rico, Julio Elias; Santos, Tito Luís Maia

2016-05-01

This paper presents the output temperature control of a solar collector field of a desalinization plant using the Filtered Dynamic Matrix Control (FDMC). The FDMC is a modified controller based on the Dynamic Matrix Control (DMC), a predictive control strategy widely used in industry. In the FDMC, a filter is used in the prediction error, which allows the modification of the robustness and disturbance rejection characteristics of the original algorithm. The implementation and tuning of the FDMC are simple and maintain the advantages of DMC. Several simulation results using a validated model of the solar plant are presented considering different scenarios. The results are also compared to nonlinear control techniques, showing that FDMC, if properly tuned, can yield similar results to more complex control algorithms. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and coronary disease: COPDCoRi, a simple and effective algorithm for predicting the risk of coronary artery disease in COPD patients.

PubMed

Cazzola, Mario; Calzetta, Luigino; Matera, Maria Gabriella; Muscoli, Saverio; Rogliani, Paola; Romeo, Francesco

2015-08-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is often associated with cardiovascular artery disease (CAD), representing a potential and independent risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify an algorithm for predicting the risk of CAD in COPD patients. We analyzed data of patients afferent to the Cardiology ward and the Respiratory Diseases outpatient clinic of Tor Vergata University (2010-2012, 1596 records). The study population was clustered as training population (COPD patients undergoing coronary arteriography), control population (non-COPD patients undergoing coronary arteriography), test population (COPD patients whose records reported information on the coronary status). The predicting model was built via causal relationship between variables, stepwise binary logistic regression and Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis. The algorithm was validated via split-sample validation method and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis. The diagnostic accuracy was assessed. In training population the variables gender (men/women OR: 1.7, 95%CI: 1.237-2.5, P < 0.05), dyslipidemia (OR: 1.8, 95%CI: 1.2-2.5, P < 0.01) and smoking habit (OR: 1.5, 95%CI: 1.2-1.9, P < 0.001) were significantly associated with CAD in COPD patients, whereas in control population also age and diabetes were correlated. The stepwise binary logistic regressions permitted to build a well fitting predictive model for training population but not for control population. The predictive algorithm shown a diagnostic accuracy of 81.5% (95%CI: 77.78-84.71) and an AUC of 0.81 (95%CI: 0.78-0.85) for the validation set. The proposed algorithm is effective for predicting the risk of CAD in COPD patients via a rapid, inexpensive and non-invasive approach. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real-Time Feedback Control of Flow-Induced Cavity Tones. Part 2; Adaptive Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kegerise, M. A.; Cabell, R. H.; Cattafesta, L. N., III

2006-01-01

An adaptive generalized predictive control (GPC) algorithm was formulated and applied to the cavity flow-tone problem. The algorithm employs gradient descent to update the GPC coefficients at each time step. Past input-output data and an estimate of the open-loop pulse response sequence are all that is needed to implement the algorithm for application at fixed Mach numbers. Transient measurements made during controller adaptation revealed that the controller coefficients converged to a steady state in the mean, and this implies that adaptation can be turned off at some point with no degradation in control performance. When converged, the control algorithm demonstrated multiple Rossiter mode suppression at fixed Mach numbers ranging from 0.275 to 0.38. However, as in the case of fixed-gain GPC, the adaptive GPC performance was limited by spillover in sidebands around the suppressed Rossiter modes. The algorithm was also able to maintain suppression of multiple cavity tones as the freestream Mach number was varied over a modest range (0.275 to 0.29). Beyond this range, stable operation of the control algorithm was not possible due to the fixed plant model in the algorithm.

Discovering Pediatric Asthma Phenotypes on the Basis of Response to Controller Medication Using Machine Learning.

PubMed

Ross, Mindy K; Yoon, Jinsung; van der Schaar, Auke; van der Schaar, Mihaela

2018-01-01

Pediatric asthma has variable underlying inflammation and symptom control. Approaches to addressing this heterogeneity, such as clustering methods to find phenotypes and predict outcomes, have been investigated. However, clustering based on the relationship between treatment and clinical outcome has not been performed, and machine learning approaches for long-term outcome prediction in pediatric asthma have not been studied in depth. Our objectives were to use our novel machine learning algorithm, predictor pursuit (PP), to discover pediatric asthma phenotypes on the basis of asthma control in response to controller medications, to predict longitudinal asthma control among children with asthma, and to identify features associated with asthma control within each discovered pediatric phenotype. We applied PP to the Childhood Asthma Management Program study data (n = 1,019) to discover phenotypes on the basis of asthma control between assigned controller therapy groups (budesonide vs. nedocromil). We confirmed PP's ability to discover phenotypes using the Asthma Clinical Research Network/Childhood Asthma Research and Education network data. We next predicted children's asthma control over time and compared PP's performance with that of traditional prediction methods. Last, we identified clinical features most correlated with asthma control in the discovered phenotypes. Four phenotypes were discovered in both datasets: allergic not obese (A + /O - ), obese not allergic (A - /O + ), allergic and obese (A + /O + ), and not allergic not obese (A - /O - ). Of the children with well-controlled asthma in the Childhood Asthma Management Program dataset, we found more nonobese children treated with budesonide than with nedocromil (P = 0.015) and more obese children treated with nedocromil than with budesonide (P = 0.008). Within the obese group, more A + /O + children's asthma was well controlled with nedocromil than with budesonide (P = 0.022) or with placebo (P = 0.011). The PP algorithm performed significantly better (P < 0.001) than traditional machine learning algorithms for both short- and long-term asthma control prediction. Asthma control and bronchodilator response were the features most predictive of short-term asthma control, regardless of type of controller medication or phenotype. Bronchodilator response and serum eosinophils were the most predictive features of asthma control, regardless of type of controller medication or phenotype. Advanced statistical machine learning approaches can be powerful tools for discovery of phenotypes based on treatment response and can aid in asthma control prediction in complex medical conditions such as asthma.

Integrated identification, modeling and control with applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Guojun

This thesis deals with the integration of system design, identification, modeling and control. In particular, six interdisciplinary engineering problems are addressed and investigated. Theoretical results are established and applied to structural vibration reduction and engine control problems. First, the data-based LQG control problem is formulated and solved. It is shown that a state space model is not necessary to solve this problem; rather a finite sequence from the impulse response is the only model data required to synthesize an optimal controller. The new theory avoids unnecessary reliance on a model, required in the conventional design procedure. The infinite horizon model predictive control problem is addressed for multivariable systems. The basic properties of the receding horizon implementation strategy is investigated and the complete framework for solving the problem is established. The new theory allows the accommodation of hard input constraints and time delays. The developed control algorithms guarantee the closed loop stability. A closed loop identification and infinite horizon model predictive control design procedure is established for engine speed regulation. The developed algorithms are tested on the Cummins Engine Simulator and desired results are obtained. A finite signal-to-noise ratio model is considered for noise signals. An information quality index is introduced which measures the essential information precision required for stabilization. The problems of minimum variance control and covariance control are formulated and investigated. Convergent algorithms are developed for solving the problems of interest. The problem of the integrated passive and active control design is addressed in order to improve the overall system performance. A design algorithm is developed, which simultaneously finds: (i) the optimal values of the stiffness and damping ratios for the structure, and (ii) an optimal output variance constrained stabilizing controller such that the active control energy is minimized. A weighted q-Markov COVER method is introduced for identification with measurement noise. The result is use to develop an iterative closed loop identification/control design algorithm. The effectiveness of the algorithm is illustrated by experimental results.

Nonlinear predictive control of a boiler-turbine unit: A state-space approach with successive on-line model linearisation and quadratic optimisation.

PubMed

Ławryńczuk, Maciej

2017-03-01

This paper details development of a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm for a boiler-turbine unit, which is a nonlinear multiple-input multiple-output process. The control objective is to follow set-point changes imposed on two state (output) variables and to satisfy constraints imposed on three inputs and one output. In order to obtain a computationally efficient control scheme, the state-space model is successively linearised on-line for the current operating point and used for prediction. In consequence, the future control policy is easily calculated from a quadratic optimisation problem. For state estimation the extended Kalman filter is used. It is demonstrated that the MPC strategy based on constant linear models does not work satisfactorily for the boiler-turbine unit whereas the discussed algorithm with on-line successive model linearisation gives practically the same trajectories as the truly nonlinear MPC controller with nonlinear optimisation repeated at each sampling instant. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A novel toolpath force prediction algorithm using CAM volumetric data for optimizing robotic arthroplasty.

PubMed

Kianmajd, Babak; Carter, David; Soshi, Masakazu

2016-10-01

Robotic total hip arthroplasty is a procedure in which milling operations are performed on the femur to remove material for the insertion of a prosthetic implant. The robot performs the milling operation by following a sequential list of tool motions, also known as a toolpath, generated by a computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) software. The purpose of this paper is to explain a new toolpath force prediction algorithm that predicts cutting forces, which results in improving the quality and safety of surgical systems. With a custom macro developed in the CAM system's native application programming interface, cutting contact patch volume was extracted from CAM simulations. A time domain cutting force model was then developed through the use of a cutting force prediction algorithm. The second portion validated the algorithm by machining a hip canal in simulated bone using a CNC machine. Average cutting forces were measured during machining using a dynamometer and compared to the values predicted from CAM simulation data using the proposed method. The results showed the predicted forces matched the measured forces in both magnitude and overall pattern shape. However, due to inconsistent motion control, the time duration of the forces was slightly distorted. Nevertheless, the algorithm effectively predicted the forces throughout an entire hip canal procedure. This method provides a fast and easy technique for predicting cutting forces during orthopedic milling by utilizing data within a CAM software.

Power maximization of a point absorber wave energy converter using improved model predictive control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milani, Farideh; Moghaddam, Reihaneh Kardehi

2017-08-01

This paper considers controlling and maximizing the absorbed power of wave energy converters for irregular waves. With respect to physical constraints of the system, a model predictive control is applied. Irregular waves' behavior is predicted by Kalman filter method. Owing to the great influence of controller parameters on the absorbed power, these parameters are optimized by imperialist competitive algorithm. The results illustrate the method's efficiency in maximizing the extracted power in the presence of unknown excitation force which should be predicted by Kalman filter.

Pole-placement Predictive Functional Control for under-damped systems with real numbers algebra.

PubMed

Zabet, K; Rossiter, J A; Haber, R; Abdullah, M

2017-11-01

This paper presents the new algorithm of PP-PFC (Pole-placement Predictive Functional Control) for stable, linear under-damped higher-order processes. It is shown that while conventional PFC aims to get first-order exponential behavior, this is not always straightforward with significant under-damped modes and hence a pole-placement PFC algorithm is proposed which can be tuned more precisely to achieve the desired dynamics, but exploits complex number algebra and linear combinations in order to deliver guarantees of stability and performance. Nevertheless, practical implementation is easier by avoiding complex number algebra and hence a modified formulation of the PP-PFC algorithm is also presented which utilises just real numbers while retaining the key attributes of simple algebra, coding and tuning. The potential advantages are demonstrated with numerical examples and real-time control of a laboratory plant. Copyright © 2017 ISA. All rights reserved.

Automatic intraaortic balloon pump timing using an intrabeat dicrotic notch prediction algorithm.

PubMed

Schreuder, Jan J; Castiglioni, Alessandro; Donelli, Andrea; Maisano, Francesco; Jansen, Jos R C; Hanania, Ramzi; Hanlon, Pat; Bovelander, Jan; Alfieri, Ottavio

2005-03-01

The efficacy of intraaortic balloon counterpulsation (IABP) during arrhythmic episodes is questionable. A novel algorithm for intrabeat prediction of the dicrotic notch was used for real time IABP inflation timing control. A windkessel model algorithm was used to calculate real-time aortic flow from aortic pressure. The dicrotic notch was predicted using a percentage of calculated peak flow. Automatic inflation timing was set at intrabeat predicted dicrotic notch and was combined with automatic IAB deflation. Prophylactic IABP was applied in 27 patients with low ejection fraction (< 35%) undergoing cardiac surgery. Analysis of IABP at a 1:4 ratio revealed that IAB inflation occurred at a mean of 0.6 +/- 5 ms from the dicrotic notch. In all patients accurate automatic timing at a 1:1 assist ratio was performed. Seventeen patients had episodes of severe arrhythmia, the novel IABP inflation algorithm accurately assisted 318 of 320 arrhythmic beats at a 1:1 ratio. The novel real-time intrabeat IABP inflation timing algorithm performed accurately in all patients during both regular rhythms and severe arrhythmia, allowing fully automatic intrabeat IABP timing.

Self-Tuning of Design Variables for Generalized Predictive Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Chaung; Juang, Jer-Nan

2000-01-01

Three techniques are introduced to determine the order and control weighting for the design of a generalized predictive controller. These techniques are based on the application of fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms, and simulated annealing to conduct an optimal search on specific performance indexes or objective functions. Fuzzy logic is found to be feasible for real-time and on-line implementation due to its smooth and quick convergence. On the other hand, genetic algorithms and simulated annealing are applicable for initial estimation of the model order and control weighting, and final fine-tuning within a small region of the solution space, Several numerical simulations for a multiple-input and multiple-output system are given to illustrate the techniques developed in this paper.

Robust distributed model predictive control of linear systems with structured time-varying uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Langwen; Xie, Wei; Wang, Jingcheng

2017-11-01

In this work, synthesis of robust distributed model predictive control (MPC) is presented for a class of linear systems subject to structured time-varying uncertainties. By decomposing a global system into smaller dimensional subsystems, a set of distributed MPC controllers, instead of a centralised controller, are designed. To ensure the robust stability of the closed-loop system with respect to model uncertainties, distributed state feedback laws are obtained by solving a min-max optimisation problem. The design of robust distributed MPC is then transformed into solving a minimisation optimisation problem with linear matrix inequality constraints. An iterative online algorithm with adjustable maximum iteration is proposed to coordinate the distributed controllers to achieve a global performance. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed robust distributed MPC algorithm.

Towards feasible and effective predictive wavefront control for adaptive optics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Poyneer, L A; Veran, J

We have recently proposed Predictive Fourier Control, a computationally efficient and adaptive algorithm for predictive wavefront control that assumes frozen flow turbulence. We summarize refinements to the state-space model that allow operation with arbitrary computational delays and reduce the computational cost of solving for new control. We present initial atmospheric characterization using observations with Gemini North's Altair AO system. These observations, taken over 1 year, indicate that frozen flow is exists, contains substantial power, and is strongly detected 94% of the time.

Formation of the predicted training parameters in the form of a discrete information stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolentseva, T. E.; Sumin, V. I.; Zolnikov, V. K.; Lavlinsky, V. V.

2018-03-01

In work process of training in the form of a discrete information stream is considered. On each of stages of the considered process portions of the training information and quality of their assimilation are analysed. Individual characteristics and reaction trained for every portion of information on appropriate sections are defined. The control algorithm of training with the predicted number of control checks of the trainee who allows to define what operating influence is considered it is necessary to create for the trainee. On the basis of this algorithm the vector of probabilities of ignorance of elements of the training information is received. As a result of the conducted researches the algorithm on formation of the predicted training parameters is developed. In work the task of comparison of duration of training received experimentally with predicted on the basis of it is solved the conclusion is drawn on efficiency of formation of the predicted training parameters. The program complex on the basis of the values of individual parameters received as a result of experiments on each trainee who allows to calculate individual characteristics is developed, to form rating and to monitor process of change of parameters of training.

Real-Time Adaptive Control of Flow-Induced Cavity Tones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kegerise, Michael A.; Cabell, Randolph H.; Cattafesta, Louis N.

2004-01-01

An adaptive generalized predictive control (GPC) algorithm was formulated and applied to the cavity flow-tone problem. The algorithm employs gradient descent to update the GPC coefficients at each time step. The adaptive control algorithm demonstrated multiple Rossiter mode suppression at fixed Mach numbers ranging from 0.275 to 0.38. The algorithm was also able t o maintain suppression of multiple cavity tones as the freestream Mach number was varied over a modest range (0.275 to 0.29). Controller performance was evaluated with a measure of output disturbance rejection and an input sensitivity transfer function. The results suggest that disturbances entering the cavity flow are colocated with the control input at the cavity leading edge. In that case, only tonal components of the cavity wall-pressure fluctuations can be suppressed and arbitrary broadband pressure reduction is not possible. In the control-algorithm development, the cavity dynamics are treated as linear and time invariant (LTI) for a fixed Mach number. The experimental results lend support this treatment.

Development of an operationally efficient PTC braking enforcement algorithm for freight trains.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

Software algorithms used in positive train control (PTC) systems designed to predict freight train stopping distance and enforce a penalty brake application have been shown to be overly conservative, which can lead to operational inefficiencies by in...

An Experimental Evaluation of Generalized Predictive Control for Tiltrotor Aeroelastic Stability Augmentation in Airplane Mode of Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kvaternik, Raymond G.; Piatak, David J.; Nixon, Mark W.; Langston, Chester W.; Singleton, Jeffrey D.; Bennett, Richard L.; Brown, Ross K.

2001-01-01

The results of a joint NASA/Army/Bell Helicopter Textron wind-tunnel test to assess the potential of Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) for actively controlling the swashplate of tiltrotor aircraft to enhance aeroelastic stability in the airplane mode of flight are presented. GPC is an adaptive time-domain predictive control method that uses a linear difference equation to describe the input-output relationship of the system and to design the controller. The test was conducted in the Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel using an unpowered 1/5-scale semispan aeroelastic model of the V-22 that was modified to incorporate a GPC-based multi-input multi-output control algorithm to individually control each of the three swashplate actuators. Wing responses were used for feedback. The GPC-based control system was highly effective in increasing the stability of the critical wing mode for all of the conditions tested, without measurable degradation of the damping in the other modes. The algorithm was also robust with respect to its performance in adjusting to rapid changes in both the rotor speed and the tunnel airspeed.

Model predictive controller design for boost DC-DC converter using T-S fuzzy cost function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Sang-Wha; Kim, Yong; Choi, Han Ho

2017-11-01

This paper proposes a Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy method to select cost function weights of finite control set model predictive DC-DC converter control algorithms. The proposed method updates the cost function weights at every sample time by using T-S type fuzzy rules derived from the common optimal control engineering knowledge that a state or input variable with an excessively large magnitude can be penalised by increasing the weight corresponding to the variable. The best control input is determined via the online optimisation of the T-S fuzzy cost function for all the possible control input sequences. This paper implements the proposed model predictive control algorithm in real time on a Texas Instruments TMS320F28335 floating-point Digital Signal Processor (DSP). Some experimental results are given to illuminate the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed control system under several operating conditions. The results verify that our method can yield not only good transient and steady-state responses (fast recovery time, small overshoot, zero steady-state error, etc.) but also insensitiveness to abrupt load or input voltage parameter variations.

Nonlinear Recurrent Neural Network Predictive Control for Energy Distribution of a Fuel Cell Powered Robot

PubMed Central

Chen, Qihong; Long, Rong; Quan, Shuhai

2014-01-01

This paper presents a neural network predictive control strategy to optimize power distribution for a fuel cell/ultracapacitor hybrid power system of a robot. We model the nonlinear power system by employing time variant auto-regressive moving average with exogenous (ARMAX), and using recurrent neural network to represent the complicated coefficients of the ARMAX model. Because the dynamic of the system is viewed as operating- state- dependent time varying local linear behavior in this frame, a linear constrained model predictive control algorithm is developed to optimize the power splitting between the fuel cell and ultracapacitor. The proposed algorithm significantly simplifies implementation of the controller and can handle multiple constraints, such as limiting substantial fluctuation of fuel cell current. Experiment and simulation results demonstrate that the control strategy can optimally split power between the fuel cell and ultracapacitor, limit the change rate of the fuel cell current, and so as to extend the lifetime of the fuel cell. PMID:24707206

Traffic Predictive Control: Case Study and Evaluation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-06-26

This project developed a quantile regression method for predicting future traffic flow at a signalized intersection by combining both historical and real-time data. The algorithm exploits nonlinear correlations in historical measurements and efficien...

Dinucleotide controlled null models for comparative RNA gene prediction.

PubMed

Gesell, Tanja; Washietl, Stefan

2008-05-27

Comparative prediction of RNA structures can be used to identify functional noncoding RNAs in genomic screens. It was shown recently by Babak et al. [BMC Bioinformatics. 8:33] that RNA gene prediction programs can be biased by the genomic dinucleotide content, in particular those programs using a thermodynamic folding model including stacking energies. As a consequence, there is need for dinucleotide-preserving control strategies to assess the significance of such predictions. While there have been randomization algorithms for single sequences for many years, the problem has remained challenging for multiple alignments and there is currently no algorithm available. We present a program called SISSIz that simulates multiple alignments of a given average dinucleotide content. Meeting additional requirements of an accurate null model, the randomized alignments are on average of the same sequence diversity and preserve local conservation and gap patterns. We make use of a phylogenetic substitution model that includes overlapping dependencies and site-specific rates. Using fast heuristics and a distance based approach, a tree is estimated under this model which is used to guide the simulations. The new algorithm is tested on vertebrate genomic alignments and the effect on RNA structure predictions is studied. In addition, we directly combined the new null model with the RNAalifold consensus folding algorithm giving a new variant of a thermodynamic structure based RNA gene finding program that is not biased by the dinucleotide content. SISSIz implements an efficient algorithm to randomize multiple alignments preserving dinucleotide content. It can be used to get more accurate estimates of false positive rates of existing programs, to produce negative controls for the training of machine learning based programs, or as standalone RNA gene finding program. Other applications in comparative genomics that require randomization of multiple alignments can be considered. SISSIz is available as open source C code that can be compiled for every major platform and downloaded here: http://sourceforge.net/projects/sissiz.

Algorithm and data support of traffic congestion forecasting in the controlled transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dmitriev, S. V.

2015-06-01

The topicality of problem of the traffic congestion forecasting in the logistic systems of product movement highways is considered. The concepts: the controlled territory, the highway occupancy by vehicles, the parking and the controlled territory are introduced. Technical realizabilityof organizing the necessary flow of information on the state of the transport system for its regulation has been marked. Sequence of practical implementation of the solution is given. An algorithm for predicting traffic congestion in the controlled transport system is suggested.

Controlling for Frailty in Pharmacoepidemiologic Studies of Older Adults: Validation of an Existing Medicare Claims-based Algorithm.

PubMed

Cuthbertson, Carmen C; Kucharska-Newton, Anna; Faurot, Keturah R; Stürmer, Til; Jonsson Funk, Michele; Palta, Priya; Windham, B Gwen; Thai, Sydney; Lund, Jennifer L

2018-07-01

Frailty is a geriatric syndrome characterized by weakness and weight loss and is associated with adverse health outcomes. It is often an unmeasured confounder in pharmacoepidemiologic and comparative effectiveness studies using administrative claims data. Among the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study Visit 5 participants (2011-2013; n = 3,146), we conducted a validation study to compare a Medicare claims-based algorithm of dependency in activities of daily living (or dependency) developed as a proxy for frailty with a reference standard measure of phenotypic frailty. We applied the algorithm to the ARIC participants' claims data to generate a predicted probability of dependency. Using the claims-based algorithm, we estimated the C-statistic for predicting phenotypic frailty. We further categorized participants by their predicted probability of dependency (<5%, 5% to <20%, and ≥20%) and estimated associations with difficulties in physical abilities, falls, and mortality. The claims-based algorithm showed good discrimination of phenotypic frailty (C-statistic = 0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.67, 0.74). Participants classified with a high predicted probability of dependency (≥20%) had higher prevalence of falls and difficulty in physical ability, and a greater risk of 1-year all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 5.7 [95% CI = 2.5, 13]) than participants classified with a low predicted probability (<5%). Sensitivity and specificity varied across predicted probability of dependency thresholds. The Medicare claims-based algorithm showed good discrimination of phenotypic frailty and high predictive ability with adverse health outcomes. This algorithm can be used in future Medicare claims analyses to reduce confounding by frailty and improve study validity.

Control algorithms for dynamic windows for residential buildings

DOE PAGES

Firlag, Szymon; Yazdanian, Mehrangiz; Curcija, Charlie; ...

2015-09-30

This study analyzes the influence of control algorithms for dynamic windows on energy consumption, number of hours of retracted shades during daylight and shade operations. Five different control algorithms - heating/cooling, simple rules, perfect citizen, heat flow and predictive weather were developed and compared. The performance of a typical residential building was modeled with EnergyPlus. The program Widow was used to generate a Bi-Directional Distribution Function (BSDF) for two window configurations. The BSDF was exported to EnergyPlus using the IDF file format. The EMS feature in EnergyPlus was used to develop custom control algorithms. The calculations were made for fourmore » locations with diverse climate. The results showed that: (a) use of automated shading with proposed control algorithms can reduce the site energy in the range of 11.6-13.0%; in regard to source (primary) energy in the range of 20.1-21.6%, (b) the differences between algorithms in regard to energy savings are not high, (c) the differences between algorithms in regard to number of hours of retracted shades are visible, (e) the control algorithms have a strong influence on shade operation and oscillation of shade can occur, (d) additional energy consumption caused by motor, sensors and a small microprocessor in the analyzed case is very small.« less

Numerical Algorithms for Acoustic Integrals - The Devil is in the Details

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brentner, Kenneth S.

1996-01-01

The accurate prediction of the aeroacoustic field generated by aerospace vehicles or nonaerospace machinery is necessary for designers to control and reduce source noise. Powerful computational aeroacoustic methods, based on various acoustic analogies (primarily the Lighthill acoustic analogy) and Kirchhoff methods, have been developed for prediction of noise from complicated sources, such as rotating blades. Both methods ultimately predict the noise through a numerical evaluation of an integral formulation. In this paper, we consider three generic acoustic formulations and several numerical algorithms that have been used to compute the solutions to these formulations. Algorithms for retarded-time formulations are the most efficient and robust, but they are difficult to implement for supersonic-source motion. Collapsing-sphere and emission-surface formulations are good alternatives when supersonic-source motion is present, but the numerical implementations of these formulations are more computationally demanding. New algorithms - which utilize solution adaptation to provide a specified error level - are needed.

Control of epileptic seizures in WAG/Rij rats by means of brain-computer interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarov, Vladimir V.; Maksimenko, Vladimir A.; van Luijtelaar, Gilles; Lüttjohann, Annika; Hramov, Alexander E.

2018-02-01

The main issue of epileptology is the elimination of epileptic events. This can be achieved by a system that predicts the emergence of seizures in conjunction with a system that interferes with the process that leads to the onset of seizure. The prediction of seizures remains, for the present, unresolved in the absence epilepsy, due to the sudden onset of seizures. We developed an algorithm for predicting seizures in real time, evaluated it and implemented it into an online closed-loop brain stimulation system designed to prevent typical for the absence of epilepsy of spike waves (SWD) in the genetic rat model. The algorithm correctly predicts more than 85% of the seizures and the rest were successfully detected. Unlike the old beliefs that SWDs are unpredictable, current results show that they can be predicted and that the development of systems for predicting and preventing closed-loop capture is a feasible step on the way to intervention to achieve control and freedom from epileptic seizures.

An Approximation of the Error Backpropagation Algorithm in a Predictive Coding Network with Local Hebbian Synaptic Plasticity

PubMed Central

Whittington, James C. R.; Bogacz, Rafal

2017-01-01

To efficiently learn from feedback, cortical networks need to update synaptic weights on multiple levels of cortical hierarchy. An effective and well-known algorithm for computing such changes in synaptic weights is the error backpropagation algorithm. However, in this algorithm, the change in synaptic weights is a complex function of weights and activities of neurons not directly connected with the synapse being modified, whereas the changes in biological synapses are determined only by the activity of presynaptic and postsynaptic neurons. Several models have been proposed that approximate the backpropagation algorithm with local synaptic plasticity, but these models require complex external control over the network or relatively complex plasticity rules. Here we show that a network developed in the predictive coding framework can efficiently perform supervised learning fully autonomously, employing only simple local Hebbian plasticity. Furthermore, for certain parameters, the weight change in the predictive coding model converges to that of the backpropagation algorithm. This suggests that it is possible for cortical networks with simple Hebbian synaptic plasticity to implement efficient learning algorithms in which synapses in areas on multiple levels of hierarchy are modified to minimize the error on the output. PMID:28333583

An Approximation of the Error Backpropagation Algorithm in a Predictive Coding Network with Local Hebbian Synaptic Plasticity.

PubMed

Whittington, James C R; Bogacz, Rafal

2017-05-01

To efficiently learn from feedback, cortical networks need to update synaptic weights on multiple levels of cortical hierarchy. An effective and well-known algorithm for computing such changes in synaptic weights is the error backpropagation algorithm. However, in this algorithm, the change in synaptic weights is a complex function of weights and activities of neurons not directly connected with the synapse being modified, whereas the changes in biological synapses are determined only by the activity of presynaptic and postsynaptic neurons. Several models have been proposed that approximate the backpropagation algorithm with local synaptic plasticity, but these models require complex external control over the network or relatively complex plasticity rules. Here we show that a network developed in the predictive coding framework can efficiently perform supervised learning fully autonomously, employing only simple local Hebbian plasticity. Furthermore, for certain parameters, the weight change in the predictive coding model converges to that of the backpropagation algorithm. This suggests that it is possible for cortical networks with simple Hebbian synaptic plasticity to implement efficient learning algorithms in which synapses in areas on multiple levels of hierarchy are modified to minimize the error on the output.

Experimental evaluation of model predictive control and inverse dynamics control for spacecraft proximity and docking maneuvers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virgili-Llop, Josep; Zagaris, Costantinos; Park, Hyeongjun; Zappulla, Richard; Romano, Marcello

2018-03-01

An experimental campaign has been conducted to evaluate the performance of two different guidance and control algorithms on a multi-constrained docking maneuver. The evaluated algorithms are model predictive control (MPC) and inverse dynamics in the virtual domain (IDVD). A linear-quadratic approach with a quadratic programming solver is used for the MPC approach. A nonconvex optimization problem results from the IDVD approach, and a nonlinear programming solver is used. The docking scenario is constrained by the presence of a keep-out zone, an entry cone, and by the chaser's maximum actuation level. The performance metrics for the experiments and numerical simulations include the required control effort and time to dock. The experiments have been conducted in a ground-based air-bearing test bed, using spacecraft simulators that float over a granite table.

Performance comparison of the Prophecy (forecasting) Algorithm in FFT form for unseen feature and time-series prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaenisch, Holger; Handley, James

2013-06-01

We introduce a generalized numerical prediction and forecasting algorithm. We have previously published it for malware byte sequence feature prediction and generalized distribution modeling for disparate test article analysis. We show how non-trivial non-periodic extrapolation of a numerical sequence (forecast and backcast) from the starting data is possible. Our ancestor-progeny prediction can yield new options for evolutionary programming. Our equations enable analytical integrals and derivatives to any order. Interpolation is controllable from smooth continuous to fractal structure estimation. We show how our generalized trigonometric polynomial can be derived using a Fourier transform.

Automated red blood cells extraction from holographic images using fully convolutional neural networks.

PubMed

Yi, Faliu; Moon, Inkyu; Javidi, Bahram

2017-10-01

In this paper, we present two models for automatically extracting red blood cells (RBCs) from RBCs holographic images based on a deep learning fully convolutional neural network (FCN) algorithm. The first model, called FCN-1, only uses the FCN algorithm to carry out RBCs prediction, whereas the second model, called FCN-2, combines the FCN approach with the marker-controlled watershed transform segmentation scheme to achieve RBCs extraction. Both models achieve good segmentation accuracy. In addition, the second model has much better performance in terms of cell separation than traditional segmentation methods. In the proposed methods, the RBCs phase images are first numerically reconstructed from RBCs holograms recorded with off-axis digital holographic microscopy. Then, some RBCs phase images are manually segmented and used as training data to fine-tune the FCN. Finally, each pixel in new input RBCs phase images is predicted into either foreground or background using the trained FCN models. The RBCs prediction result from the first model is the final segmentation result, whereas the result from the second model is used as the internal markers of the marker-controlled transform algorithm for further segmentation. Experimental results show that the given schemes can automatically extract RBCs from RBCs phase images and much better RBCs separation results are obtained when the FCN technique is combined with the marker-controlled watershed segmentation algorithm.

Automated red blood cells extraction from holographic images using fully convolutional neural networks

PubMed Central

Yi, Faliu; Moon, Inkyu; Javidi, Bahram

2017-01-01

In this paper, we present two models for automatically extracting red blood cells (RBCs) from RBCs holographic images based on a deep learning fully convolutional neural network (FCN) algorithm. The first model, called FCN-1, only uses the FCN algorithm to carry out RBCs prediction, whereas the second model, called FCN-2, combines the FCN approach with the marker-controlled watershed transform segmentation scheme to achieve RBCs extraction. Both models achieve good segmentation accuracy. In addition, the second model has much better performance in terms of cell separation than traditional segmentation methods. In the proposed methods, the RBCs phase images are first numerically reconstructed from RBCs holograms recorded with off-axis digital holographic microscopy. Then, some RBCs phase images are manually segmented and used as training data to fine-tune the FCN. Finally, each pixel in new input RBCs phase images is predicted into either foreground or background using the trained FCN models. The RBCs prediction result from the first model is the final segmentation result, whereas the result from the second model is used as the internal markers of the marker-controlled transform algorithm for further segmentation. Experimental results show that the given schemes can automatically extract RBCs from RBCs phase images and much better RBCs separation results are obtained when the FCN technique is combined with the marker-controlled watershed segmentation algorithm. PMID:29082078

Recursive Deadbeat Controller Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Juang, Jer-Nan; Phan, Minh Q.

1997-01-01

This paper presents a recursive algorithm for a deadbeat predictive controller design. The method combines together the concepts of system identification and deadbeat controller designs. It starts with the multi-step output prediction equation and derives the control force in terms of past input and output time histories. The formulation thus derived satisfies simultaneously system identification and deadbeat controller design requirements. As soon as the coefficient matrices are identified satisfying the output prediction equation, no further work is required to compute the deadbeat control gain matrices. The method can be implemented recursively just as any typical recursive system identification techniques.

Multiplexed Predictive Control of a Large Commercial Turbofan Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richter, hanz; Singaraju, Anil; Litt, Jonathan S.

2008-01-01

Model predictive control is a strategy well-suited to handle the highly complex, nonlinear, uncertain, and constrained dynamics involved in aircraft engine control problems. However, it has thus far been infeasible to implement model predictive control in engine control applications, because of the combination of model complexity and the time allotted for the control update calculation. In this paper, a multiplexed implementation is proposed that dramatically reduces the computational burden of the quadratic programming optimization that must be solved online as part of the model-predictive-control algorithm. Actuator updates are calculated sequentially and cyclically in a multiplexed implementation, as opposed to the simultaneous optimization taking place in conventional model predictive control. Theoretical aspects are discussed based on a nominal model, and actual computational savings are demonstrated using a realistic commercial engine model.

Real-time prediction and gating of respiratory motion using an extended Kalman filter and Gaussian process regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bukhari, W.; Hong, S.-M.

2015-01-01

Motion-adaptive radiotherapy aims to deliver a conformal dose to the target tumour with minimal normal tissue exposure by compensating for tumour motion in real time. The prediction as well as the gating of respiratory motion have received much attention over the last two decades for reducing the targeting error of the treatment beam due to respiratory motion. In this article, we present a real-time algorithm for predicting and gating respiratory motion that utilizes a model-based and a model-free Bayesian framework by combining them in a cascade structure. The algorithm, named EKF-GPR+, implements a gating function without pre-specifying a particular region of the patient’s breathing cycle. The algorithm first employs an extended Kalman filter (LCM-EKF) to predict the respiratory motion and then uses a model-free Gaussian process regression (GPR) to correct the error of the LCM-EKF prediction. The GPR is a non-parametric Bayesian algorithm that yields predictive variance under Gaussian assumptions. The EKF-GPR+ algorithm utilizes the predictive variance from the GPR component to capture the uncertainty in the LCM-EKF prediction error and systematically identify breathing points with a higher probability of large prediction error in advance. This identification allows us to pause the treatment beam over such instances. EKF-GPR+ implements the gating function by using simple calculations based on the predictive variance with no additional detection mechanism. A sparse approximation of the GPR algorithm is employed to realize EKF-GPR+ in real time. Extensive numerical experiments are performed based on a large database of 304 respiratory motion traces to evaluate EKF-GPR+. The experimental results show that the EKF-GPR+ algorithm effectively reduces the prediction error in a root-mean-square (RMS) sense by employing the gating function, albeit at the cost of a reduced duty cycle. As an example, EKF-GPR+ reduces the patient-wise RMS error to 37%, 39% and 42% in percent ratios relative to no prediction for a duty cycle of 80% at lookahead lengths of 192 ms, 384 ms and 576 ms, respectively. The experiments also confirm that EKF-GPR+ controls the duty cycle with reasonable accuracy.

Circadian Phase Resetting via Single and Multiple Control Targets

PubMed Central

Bagheri, Neda; Stelling, Jörg; Doyle, Francis J.

2008-01-01

Circadian entrainment is necessary for rhythmic physiological functions to be appropriately timed over the 24-hour day. Disruption of circadian rhythms has been associated with sleep and neuro-behavioral impairments as well as cancer. To date, light is widely accepted to be the most powerful circadian synchronizer, motivating its use as a key control input for phase resetting. Through sensitivity analysis, we identify additional control targets whose individual and simultaneous manipulation (via a model predictive control algorithm) out-perform the open-loop light-based phase recovery dynamics by nearly 3-fold. We further demonstrate the robustness of phase resetting by synchronizing short- and long-period mutant phenotypes to the 24-hour environment; the control algorithm is robust in the presence of model mismatch. These studies prove the efficacy and immediate application of model predictive control in experimental studies and medicine. In particular, maintaining proper circadian regulation may significantly decrease the chance of acquiring chronic illness. PMID:18795146

Health-aware Model Predictive Control of Pasteurization Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi Pour, Fatemeh; Puig, Vicenç; Ocampo-Martinez, Carlos

2017-01-01

In order to optimize the trade-off between components life and energy consumption, the integration of a system health management and control modules is required. This paper proposes the integration of model predictive control (MPC) with a fatigue estimation approach that minimizes the damage of the components of a pasteurization plant. The fatigue estimation is assessed with the rainflow counting algorithm. Using data from this algorithm, a simplified model that characterizes the health of the system is developed and integrated with MPC. The MPC controller objective is modified by adding an extra criterion that takes into account the accumulated damage. But, a steady-state offset is created by adding this extra criterion. Finally, by including an integral action in the MPC controller, the steady-state error for regulation purpose is eliminated. The proposed control scheme is validated in simulation using a simulator of a utility-scale pasteurization plant.

An adaptive transmission protocol for managing dynamic shared states in collaborative surgical simulation.

PubMed

Qin, J; Choi, K S; Ho, Simon S M; Heng, P A

2008-01-01

A force prediction algorithm is proposed to facilitate virtual-reality (VR) based collaborative surgical simulation by reducing the effect of network latencies. State regeneration is used to correct the estimated prediction. This algorithm is incorporated into an adaptive transmission protocol in which auxiliary features such as view synchronization and coupling control are equipped to ensure the system consistency. We implemented this protocol using multi-threaded technique on a cluster-based network architecture.

Finite element based model predictive control for active vibration suppression of a one-link flexible manipulator.

PubMed

Dubay, Rickey; Hassan, Marwan; Li, Chunying; Charest, Meaghan

2014-09-01

This paper presents a unique approach for active vibration control of a one-link flexible manipulator. The method combines a finite element model of the manipulator and an advanced model predictive controller to suppress vibration at its tip. This hybrid methodology improves significantly over the standard application of a predictive controller for vibration control. The finite element model used in place of standard modelling in the control algorithm provides a more accurate prediction of dynamic behavior, resulting in enhanced control. Closed loop control experiments were performed using the flexible manipulator, instrumented with strain gauges and piezoelectric actuators. In all instances, experimental and simulation results demonstrate that the finite element based predictive controller provides improved active vibration suppression in comparison with using a standard predictive control strategy. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transient flow thrust prediction for an ejector propulsion concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drummond, Colin K.

1989-01-01

A method for predicting transient thrust augmenting ejector characteristics is introduced. The analysis blends classic self-similar turbulent jet descriptions with a mixing region control volume analysis to predict transient effects in a new way. Details of the theoretical foundation, the solution algorithm, and sample calculations are given.

Model predictive control of attitude maneuver of a geostationary flexible satellite based on genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

TayyebTaher, M.; Esmaeilzadeh, S. Majid

2017-07-01

This article presents an application of Model Predictive Controller (MPC) to the attitude control of a geostationary flexible satellite. SIMO model has been used for the geostationary satellite, using the Lagrange equations. Flexibility is also included in the modelling equations. The state space equations are expressed in order to simplify the controller. Naturally there is no specific tuning rule to find the best parameters of an MPC controller which fits the desired controller. Being an intelligence method for optimizing problem, Genetic Algorithm has been used for optimizing the performance of MPC controller by tuning the controller parameter due to minimum rise time, settling time, overshoot of the target point of the flexible structure and its mode shape amplitudes to make large attitude maneuvers possible. The model included geosynchronous orbit environment and geostationary satellite parameters. The simulation results of the flexible satellite with attitude maneuver shows the efficiency of proposed optimization method in comparison with LQR optimal controller.

Prediction-Correction Algorithms for Time-Varying Constrained Optimization

DOE PAGES

Simonetto, Andrea; Dall'Anese, Emiliano

2017-07-26

This article develops online algorithms to track solutions of time-varying constrained optimization problems. Particularly, resembling workhorse Kalman filtering-based approaches for dynamical systems, the proposed methods involve prediction-correction steps to provably track the trajectory of the optimal solutions of time-varying convex problems. The merits of existing prediction-correction methods have been shown for unconstrained problems and for setups where computing the inverse of the Hessian of the cost function is computationally affordable. This paper addresses the limitations of existing methods by tackling constrained problems and by designing first-order prediction steps that rely on the Hessian of the cost function (and do notmore » require the computation of its inverse). In addition, the proposed methods are shown to improve the convergence speed of existing prediction-correction methods when applied to unconstrained problems. Numerical simulations corroborate the analytical results and showcase performance and benefits of the proposed algorithms. A realistic application of the proposed method to real-time control of energy resources is presented.« less

Real-Time Feedback Control of Flow-Induced Cavity Tones. Part 1; Fixed-Gain Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kegerise, M. A.; Cabell, R. H.; Cattafesta, L. N., III

2006-01-01

A generalized predictive control (GPC) algorithm was formulated and applied to the cavity flow-tone problem. The control algorithm demonstrated multiple Rossiter-mode suppression at fixed Mach numbers ranging from 0.275 to 0.38. Controller performance was evaluated with a measure of output disturbance rejection and an input sensitivity transfer function. The results suggest that disturbances entering the cavity flow are collocated with the control input at the cavity leading edge. In that case, only tonal components of the cavity wall-pressure fluctuations can be suppressed and arbitrary broadband pressure reduction is not possible with the present sensor/actuator arrangement. In the control-algorithm development, the cavity dynamics were treated as linear and time invariant (LTI) for a fixed Mach number. The experimental results lend support to that treatment.

Prediction of properties of wheat dough using intelligent deep belief networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guha, Paramita; Bhatnagar, Taru; Pal, Ishan; Kamboj, Uma; Mishra, Sunita

2017-11-01

In this paper, the rheological and chemical properties of wheat dough are predicted using deep belief networks. Wheat grains are stored at controlled environmental conditions. The internal parameters of grains viz., protein, fat, carbohydrates, moisture, ash are determined using standard chemical analysis and viscosity of the dough is measured using Rheometer. Here, fat, carbohydrates, moisture, ash and temperature are considered as inputs whereas protein and viscosity are chosen as outputs. The prediction algorithm is developed using deep neural network where each layer is trained greedily using restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) networks. The overall network is finally fine-tuned using standard neural network technique. In most literature, it has been found that fine-tuning is done using back-propagation technique. In this paper, a new algorithm is proposed in which each layer is tuned using RBM and the final network is fine-tuned using deep neural network (DNN). It has been observed that with the proposed algorithm, errors between the actual and predicted outputs are less compared to the conventional algorithm. Hence, the given network can be considered as beneficial as it predicts the outputs more accurately. Numerical results along with discussions are presented.

Natural speech algorithm applied to baseline interview data can predict which patients will respond to psilocybin for treatment-resistant depression.

PubMed

Carrillo, Facundo; Sigman, Mariano; Fernández Slezak, Diego; Ashton, Philip; Fitzgerald, Lily; Stroud, Jack; Nutt, David J; Carhart-Harris, Robin L

2018-04-01

Natural speech analytics has seen some improvements over recent years, and this has opened a window for objective and quantitative diagnosis in psychiatry. Here, we used a machine learning algorithm applied to natural speech to ask whether language properties measured before psilocybin for treatment-resistant can predict for which patients it will be effective and for which it will not. A baseline autobiographical memory interview was conducted and transcribed. Patients with treatment-resistant depression received 2 doses of psilocybin, 10 mg and 25 mg, 7 days apart. Psychological support was provided before, during and after all dosing sessions. Quantitative speech measures were applied to the interview data from 17 patients and 18 untreated age-matched healthy control subjects. A machine learning algorithm was used to classify between controls and patients and predict treatment response. Speech analytics and machine learning successfully differentiated depressed patients from healthy controls and identified treatment responders from non-responders with a significant level of 85% of accuracy (75% precision). Automatic natural language analysis was used to predict effective response to treatment with psilocybin, suggesting that these tools offer a highly cost-effective facility for screening individuals for treatment suitability and sensitivity. The sample size was small and replication is required to strengthen inferences on these results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Deep learning and model predictive control for self-tuning mode-locked lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baumeister, Thomas; Brunton, Steven L.; Nathan Kutz, J.

2018-03-01

Self-tuning optical systems are of growing importance in technological applications such as mode-locked fiber lasers. Such self-tuning paradigms require {\\em intelligent} algorithms capable of inferring approximate models of the underlying physics and discovering appropriate control laws in order to maintain robust performance for a given objective. In this work, we demonstrate the first integration of a {\\em deep learning} (DL) architecture with {\\em model predictive control} (MPC) in order to self-tune a mode-locked fiber laser. Not only can our DL-MPC algorithmic architecture approximate the unknown fiber birefringence, it also builds a dynamical model of the laser and appropriate control law for maintaining robust, high-energy pulses despite a stochastically drifting birefringence. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this method on a fiber laser which is mode-locked by nonlinear polarization rotation. The method advocated can be broadly applied to a variety of optical systems that require robust controllers.

On several aspects and applications of the multigrid method for solving partial differential equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dinar, N.

1978-01-01

Several aspects of multigrid methods are briefly described. The main subjects include the development of very efficient multigrid algorithms for systems of elliptic equations (Cauchy-Riemann, Stokes, Navier-Stokes), as well as the development of control and prediction tools (based on local mode Fourier analysis), used to analyze, check and improve these algorithms. Preliminary research on multigrid algorithms for time dependent parabolic equations is also described. Improvements in existing multigrid processes and algorithms for elliptic equations were studied.

Aircraft Trajectories Computation-Prediction-Control. Volume 1 (La Trajectoire de l’Avion Calcul-Prediction-Controle)

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-03-01

knowledge covering problems of this type is called calculus of variations or optimal control theory (Refs. 1-8). As stated before, appli - cations occur...to the optimality conditions and the feasibility equations of Problem (GP), respectively. Clearly, after the transformation (26) is applied , the...trajectories, the primal sequential gradient-restoration algorithm (PSGRA) is applied to compute optimal trajectories for aeroassisted orbital transfer

Intelligent automated control of life support systems using proportional representations.

PubMed

Wu, Annie S; Garibay, Ivan I

2004-06-01

Effective automatic control of Advanced Life Support Systems (ALSS) is a crucial component of space exploration. An ALSS is a coupled dynamical system which can be extremely sensitive and difficult to predict. As a result, such systems can be difficult to control using deliberative and deterministic methods. We investigate the performance of two machine learning algorithms, a genetic algorithm (GA) and a stochastic hill-climber (SH), on the problem of learning how to control an ALSS, and compare the impact of two different types of problem representations on the performance of both algorithms. We perform experiments on three ALSS optimization problems using five strategies with multiple variations of a proportional representation for a total of 120 experiments. Results indicate that although a proportional representation can effectively boost GA performance, it does not necessarily have the same effect on other algorithms such as SH. Results also support previous conclusions that multivector control strategies are an effective method for control of coupled dynamical systems.

A Grammatical Approach to RNA-RNA Interaction Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, Yuki; Akutsu, Tatsuya; Seki, Hiroyuki

2007-11-01

Much attention has been paid to two interacting RNA molecules involved in post-transcriptional control of gene expression. Although there have been a few studies on RNA-RNA interaction prediction based on dynamic programming algorithm, no grammar-based approach has been proposed. The purpose of this paper is to provide a new modeling for RNA-RNA interaction based on multiple context-free grammar (MCFG). We present a polynomial time parsing algorithm for finding the most likely derivation tree for the stochastic version of MCFG, which is applicable to RNA joint secondary structure prediction including kissing hairpin loops. Also, elementary tests on RNA-RNA interaction prediction have shown that the proposed method is comparable to Alkan et al.'s method.

Application of Machine Learning to Predict Dietary Lapses During Weight Loss.

PubMed

Goldstein, Stephanie P; Zhang, Fengqing; Thomas, John G; Butryn, Meghan L; Herbert, James D; Forman, Evan M

2018-05-01

Individuals who adhere to dietary guidelines provided during weight loss interventions tend to be more successful with weight control. Any deviation from dietary guidelines can be referred to as a "lapse." There is a growing body of research showing that lapses are predictable using a variety of physiological, environmental, and psychological indicators. With recent technological advancements, it may be possible to assess these triggers and predict dietary lapses in real time. The current study sought to use machine learning techniques to predict lapses and evaluate the utility of combining both group- and individual-level data to enhance lapse prediction. The current study trained and tested a machine learning algorithm capable of predicting dietary lapses from a behavioral weight loss program among adults with overweight/obesity (n = 12). Participants were asked to follow a weight control diet for 6 weeks and complete ecological momentary assessment (EMA; repeated brief surveys delivered via smartphone) regarding dietary lapses and relevant triggers. WEKA decision trees were used to predict lapses with an accuracy of 0.72 for the group of participants. However, generalization of the group algorithm to each individual was poor, and as such, group- and individual-level data were combined to improve prediction. The findings suggest that 4 weeks of individual data collection is recommended to attain optimal model performance. The predictive algorithm could be utilized to provide in-the-moment interventions to prevent dietary lapses and therefore enhance weight losses. Furthermore, methods in the current study could be translated to other types of health behavior lapses.

Validation Study of a Predictive Algorithm to Evaluate Opioid Use Disorder in a Primary Care Setting

PubMed Central

Sharma, Maneesh; Lee, Chee; Kantorovich, Svetlana; Tedtaotao, Maria; Smith, Gregory A.

2017-01-01

Background: Opioid abuse in chronic pain patients is a major public health issue. Primary care providers are frequently the first to prescribe opioids to patients suffering from pain, yet do not always have the time or resources to adequately evaluate the risk of opioid use disorder (OUD). Purpose: This study seeks to determine the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm (“profile”) incorporating phenotypic and, more uniquely, genotypic risk factors. Methods and Results: In a validation study with 452 participants diagnosed with OUD and 1237 controls, the algorithm successfully categorized patients at high and moderate risk of OUD with 91.8% sensitivity. Regardless of changes in the prevalence of OUD, sensitivity of the algorithm remained >90%. Conclusion: The algorithm correctly stratifies primary care patients into low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories to appropriately identify patients in need for additional guidance, monitoring, or treatment changes. PMID:28890908

Validation Study of a Predictive Algorithm to Evaluate Opioid Use Disorder in a Primary Care Setting.

PubMed

Sharma, Maneesh; Lee, Chee; Kantorovich, Svetlana; Tedtaotao, Maria; Smith, Gregory A; Brenton, Ashley

2017-01-01

Opioid abuse in chronic pain patients is a major public health issue. Primary care providers are frequently the first to prescribe opioids to patients suffering from pain, yet do not always have the time or resources to adequately evaluate the risk of opioid use disorder (OUD). This study seeks to determine the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm ("profile") incorporating phenotypic and, more uniquely, genotypic risk factors. In a validation study with 452 participants diagnosed with OUD and 1237 controls, the algorithm successfully categorized patients at high and moderate risk of OUD with 91.8% sensitivity. Regardless of changes in the prevalence of OUD, sensitivity of the algorithm remained >90%. The algorithm correctly stratifies primary care patients into low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories to appropriately identify patients in need for additional guidance, monitoring, or treatment changes.

Predicting Energy Consumption for Potential Effective Use in Hybrid Vehicle Powertrain Management Using Driver Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magnuson, Brian

A proof-of-concept software-in-the-loop study is performed to assess the accuracy of predicted net and charge-gaining energy consumption for potential effective use in optimizing powertrain management of hybrid vehicles. With promising results of improving fuel efficiency of a thermostatic control strategy for a series, plug-ing, hybrid-electric vehicle by 8.24%, the route and speed prediction machine learning algorithms are redesigned and implemented for real- world testing in a stand-alone C++ code-base to ingest map data, learn and predict driver habits, and store driver data for fast startup and shutdown of the controller or computer used to execute the compiled algorithm. Speed prediction is performed using a multi-layer, multi-input, multi- output neural network using feed-forward prediction and gradient descent through back- propagation training. Route prediction utilizes a Hidden Markov Model with a recurrent forward algorithm for prediction and multi-dimensional hash maps to store state and state distribution constraining associations between atomic road segments and end destinations. Predicted energy is calculated using the predicted time-series speed and elevation profile over the predicted route and the road-load equation. Testing of the code-base is performed over a known road network spanning 24x35 blocks on the south hill of Spokane, Washington. A large set of training routes are traversed once to add randomness to the route prediction algorithm, and a subset of the training routes, testing routes, are traversed to assess the accuracy of the net and charge-gaining predicted energy consumption. Each test route is traveled a random number of times with varying speed conditions from traffic and pedestrians to add randomness to speed prediction. Prediction data is stored and analyzed in a post process Matlab script. The aggregated results and analysis of all traversals of all test routes reflect the performance of the Driver Prediction algorithm. The error of average energy gained through charge-gaining events is 31.3% and the error of average net energy consumed is 27.3%. The average delta and average standard deviation of the delta of predicted energy gained through charge-gaining events is 0.639 and 0.601 Wh respectively for individual time-series calculations. Similarly, the average delta and average standard deviation of the delta of the predicted net energy consumed is 0.567 and 0.580 Wh respectively for individual time-series calculations. The average delta and standard deviation of the delta of the predicted speed is 1.60 and 1.15 respectively also for the individual time-series measurements. The percentage of accuracy of route prediction is 91%. Overall, test routes are traversed 151 times for a total test distance of 276.4 km.

Observational study to calculate addictive risk to opioids: a validation study of a predictive algorithm to evaluate opioid use disorder.

PubMed

Brenton, Ashley; Richeimer, Steven; Sharma, Maneesh; Lee, Chee; Kantorovich, Svetlana; Blanchard, John; Meshkin, Brian

2017-01-01

Opioid abuse in chronic pain patients is a major public health issue, with rapidly increasing addiction rates and deaths from unintentional overdose more than quadrupling since 1999. This study seeks to determine the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm incorporating phenotypic risk factors and neuroscience-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The Proove Opioid Risk (POR) algorithm determines the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm incorporating phenotypic risk factors and neuroscience-associated SNPs. In a validation study with 258 subjects with diagnosed opioid use disorder (OUD) and 650 controls who reported using opioids, the POR successfully categorized patients at high and moderate risks of opioid misuse or abuse with 95.7% sensitivity. Regardless of changes in the prevalence of opioid misuse or abuse, the sensitivity of POR remained >95%. The POR correctly stratifies patients into low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories to appropriately identify patients at need for additional guidance, monitoring, or treatment changes.

A machine learning approach to triaging patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

PubMed Central

Qirko, Klajdi; Smith, Ted; Corcoran, Ethan; Wysham, Nicholas G.; Bazaz, Gaurav; Kappel, George; Gerber, Anthony N.

2017-01-01

COPD patients are burdened with a daily risk of acute exacerbation and loss of control, which could be mitigated by effective, on-demand decision support tools. In this study, we present a machine learning-based strategy for early detection of exacerbations and subsequent triage. Our application uses physician opinion in a statistically and clinically comprehensive set of patient cases to train a supervised prediction algorithm. The accuracy of the model is assessed against a panel of physicians each triaging identical cases in a representative patient validation set. Our results show that algorithm accuracy and safety indicators surpass all individual pulmonologists in both identifying exacerbations and predicting the consensus triage in a 101 case validation set. The algorithm is also the top performer in sensitivity, specificity, and ppv when predicting a patient’s need for emergency care. PMID:29166411

Using Time Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a PICU.

PubMed

Kennedy, Curtis E; Aoki, Noriaki; Mariscalco, Michele; Turley, James P

2015-11-01

To build and test cardiac arrest prediction models in a PICU, using time series analysis as input, and to measure changes in prediction accuracy attributable to different classes of time series data. Retrospective cohort study. Thirty-one bed academic PICU that provides care for medical and general surgical (not congenital heart surgery) patients. Patients experiencing a cardiac arrest in the PICU and requiring external cardiac massage for at least 2 minutes. None. One hundred three cases of cardiac arrest and 109 control cases were used to prepare a baseline dataset that consisted of 1,025 variables in four data classes: multivariate, raw time series, clinical calculations, and time series trend analysis. We trained 20 arrest prediction models using a matrix of five feature sets (combinations of data classes) with four modeling algorithms: linear regression, decision tree, neural network, and support vector machine. The reference model (multivariate data with regression algorithm) had an accuracy of 78% and 87% area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The best model (multivariate + trend analysis data with support vector machine algorithm) had an accuracy of 94% and 98% area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Cardiac arrest predictions based on a traditional model built with multivariate data and a regression algorithm misclassified cases 3.7 times more frequently than predictions that included time series trend analysis and built with a support vector machine algorithm. Although the final model lacks the specificity necessary for clinical application, we have demonstrated how information from time series data can be used to increase the accuracy of clinical prediction models.

Prediction Study on Anti-Slide Control of Railway Vehicle Based on RBF Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Lijun; Zhang, Jimin

While railway vehicle braking, Anti-slide control system will detect operating status of each wheel-sets e.g. speed difference and deceleration etc. Once the detected value on some wheel-set is over pre-defined threshold, brake effort on such wheel-set will be adjusted automatically to avoid blocking. Such method takes effect on guarantee safety operation of vehicle and avoid wheel-set flatness, however it cannot adapt itself to the rail adhesion variation. While wheel-sets slide, the operating status is chaotic time series with certain law, and can be predicted with the law and experiment data in certain time. The predicted values can be used as the input reference signals of vehicle anti-slide control system, to judge and control the slide status of wheel-sets. In this article, the RBF neural networks is taken to predict wheel-set slide status in multi-step with weight vector adjusted based on online self-adaptive algorithm, and the center & normalizing parameters of active function of the hidden unit of RBF neural networks' hidden layer computed with K-means clustering algorithm. With multi-step prediction simulation, the predicted signal with appropriate precision can be used by anti-slide system to trace actively and adjust wheel-set slide tendency, so as to adapt to wheel-rail adhesion variation and reduce the risk of wheel-set blocking.

Development of a strategy and computational application to select candidate protein analogues with reduced HLA binding and immunogenicity.

PubMed

Dhanda, Sandeep Kumar; Grifoni, Alba; Pham, John; Vaughan, Kerrie; Sidney, John; Peters, Bjoern; Sette, Alessandro

2018-01-01

Unwanted immune responses against protein therapeutics can reduce efficacy or lead to adverse reactions. T-cell responses are key in the development of such responses, and are directed against immunodominant regions within the protein sequence, often associated with binding to several allelic variants of HLA class II molecules (promiscuous binders). Herein, we report a novel computational strategy to predict 'de-immunized' peptides, based on previous studies of erythropoietin protein immunogenicity. This algorithm (or method) first predicts promiscuous binding regions within the target protein sequence and then identifies residue substitutions predicted to reduce HLA binding. Further, this method anticipates the effect of any given substitution on flanking peptides, thereby circumventing the creation of nascent HLA-binding regions. As a proof-of-principle, the algorithm was applied to Vatreptacog α, an engineered Factor VII molecule associated with unintended immunogenicity. The algorithm correctly predicted the two immunogenic peptides containing the engineered residues. As a further validation, we selected and evaluated the immunogenicity of seven substitutions predicted to simultaneously reduce HLA binding for both peptides, five control substitutions with no predicted reduction in HLA-binding capacity, and additional flanking region controls. In vitro immunogenicity was detected in 21·4% of the cultures of peptides predicted to have reduced HLA binding and 11·4% of the flanking regions, compared with 46% for the cultures of the peptides predicted to be immunogenic. This method has been implemented as an interactive application, freely available online at http://tools.iedb.org/deimmunization/. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Voltage control on a train system

DOEpatents

Gordon, Susanna P.; Evans, John A.

2004-01-20

The present invention provides methods for preventing low train voltages and managing interference, thereby improving the efficiency, reliability, and passenger comfort associated with commuter trains. An algorithm implementing neural network technology is used to predict low voltages before they occur. Once voltages are predicted, then multiple trains can be controlled to prevent low voltage events. Further, algorithms for managing inference are presented in the present invention. Different types of interference problems are addressed in the present invention such as "Interference During Acceleration", "Interference Near Station Stops", and "Interference During Delay Recovery." Managing such interference avoids unnecessary brake/acceleration cycles during acceleration, immediately before station stops, and after substantial delays. Algorithms are demonstrated to avoid oscillatory brake/acceleration cycles due to interference and to smooth the trajectories of closely following trains. This is achieved by maintaining sufficient following distances to avoid unnecessary braking/accelerating. These methods generate smooth train trajectories, making for a more comfortable ride, and improve train motor reliability by avoiding unnecessary mode-changes between propulsion and braking. These algorithms can also have a favorable impact on traction power system requirements and energy consumption.

Use of sexually transmitted disease risk assessment algorithms for selection of intrauterine device candidates.

PubMed

Morrison, C S; Sekadde-Kigondu, C; Miller, W C; Weiner, D H; Sinei, S K

1999-02-01

Sexually transmitted diseases (STD) are an important contraindication for intrauterine device (IUD) insertion. Nevertheless, laboratory testing for STD is not possible in many settings. The objective of this study is to evaluate the use of risk assessment algorithms to predict STD and subsequent IUD-related complications among IUD candidates. Among 615 IUD users in Kenya, the following algorithms were evaluated: 1) an STD algorithm based on US Agency for International Development (USAID) Technical Working Group guidelines: 2) a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) algorithm for management of chlamydia; and 3) a data-derived algorithm modeled from study data. Algorithms were evaluated for prediction of chlamydial and gonococcal infection at 1 month and complications (pelvic inflammatory disease [PID], IUD removals, and IUD expulsions) over 4 months. Women with STD were more likely to develop complications than women without STD (19% vs 6%; risk ratio = 2.9; 95% CI 1.3-6.5). For STD prediction, the USAID algorithm was 75% sensitive and 48% specific, with a positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 1.4. The CDC algorithm was 44% sensitive and 72% specific, LR+ = 1.6. The data-derived algorithm was 91% sensitive and 56% specific, with LR+ = 2.0 and LR- = 0.2. Category-specific LR for this algorithm identified women with very low (< 1%) and very high (29%) infection probabilities. The data-derived algorithm was also the best predictor of IUD-related complications. These results suggest that use of STD algorithms may improve selection of IUD users. Women at high risk for STD could be counseled to avoid IUD, whereas women at moderate risk should be monitored closely and counseled to use condoms.

A Simple Two Aircraft Conflict Resolution Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chatterji, Gano B.

1999-01-01

Conflict detection and resolution methods are crucial for distributed air-ground traffic management in which the crew in the cockpit, dispatchers in operation control centers and air traffic controllers in the ground-based air traffic management facilities share information and participate in the traffic flow and traffic control imctions.This paper describes a conflict detection and a conflict resolution method. The conflict detection method predicts the minimum separation and the time-to-go to the closest point of approach by assuming that both the aircraft will continue to fly at their current speeds along their current headings. The conflict resolution method described here is motivated by the proportional navigation algorithm. It generates speed and heading commands to rotate the line-of-sight either clockwise or counter-clockwise for conflict resolution. Once the aircraft achieve a positive range-rate and no further conflict is predicted, the algorithm generates heading commands to turn back the aircraft to their nominal trajectories. The speed commands are set to the optimal pre-resolution speeds. Six numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the conflict detection and resolution method.

A dynamic feedforward neural network based on gaussian particle swarm optimization and its application for predictive control.

PubMed

Han, Min; Fan, Jianchao; Wang, Jun

2011-09-01

A dynamic feedforward neural network (DFNN) is proposed for predictive control, whose adaptive parameters are adjusted by using Gaussian particle swarm optimization (GPSO) in the training process. Adaptive time-delay operators are added in the DFNN to improve its generalization for poorly known nonlinear dynamic systems with long time delays. Furthermore, GPSO adopts a chaotic map with Gaussian function to balance the exploration and exploitation capabilities of particles, which improves the computational efficiency without compromising the performance of the DFNN. The stability of the particle dynamics is analyzed, based on the robust stability theory, without any restrictive assumption. A stability condition for the GPSO+DFNN model is derived, which ensures a satisfactory global search and quick convergence, without the need for gradients. The particle velocity ranges could change adaptively during the optimization process. The results of a comparative study show that the performance of the proposed algorithm can compete with selected algorithms on benchmark problems. Additional simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed combination algorithm in identifying and controlling nonlinear systems with long time delays.

Multi-model predictive control based on LMI: from the adaptation of the state-space model to the analytic description of the control law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falugi, P.; Olaru, S.; Dumur, D.

2010-08-01

This article proposes an explicit robust predictive control solution based on linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). The considered predictive control strategy uses different local descriptions of the system dynamics and uncertainties and thus allows the handling of less conservative input constraints. The computed control law guarantees constraint satisfaction and asymptotic stability. The technique is effective for a class of nonlinear systems embedded into polytopic models. A detailed discussion of the procedures which adapt the partition of the state space is presented. For the practical implementation the construction of suitable (explicit) descriptions of the control law are described upon concrete algorithms.

Diffeomorphic demons: efficient non-parametric image registration.

PubMed

Vercauteren, Tom; Pennec, Xavier; Perchant, Aymeric; Ayache, Nicholas

2009-03-01

We propose an efficient non-parametric diffeomorphic image registration algorithm based on Thirion's demons algorithm. In the first part of this paper, we show that Thirion's demons algorithm can be seen as an optimization procedure on the entire space of displacement fields. We provide strong theoretical roots to the different variants of Thirion's demons algorithm. This analysis predicts a theoretical advantage for the symmetric forces variant of the demons algorithm. We show on controlled experiments that this advantage is confirmed in practice and yields a faster convergence. In the second part of this paper, we adapt the optimization procedure underlying the demons algorithm to a space of diffeomorphic transformations. In contrast to many diffeomorphic registration algorithms, our solution is computationally efficient since in practice it only replaces an addition of displacement fields by a few compositions. Our experiments show that in addition to being diffeomorphic, our algorithm provides results that are similar to the ones from the demons algorithm but with transformations that are much smoother and closer to the gold standard, available in controlled experiments, in terms of Jacobians.

Fourier transform wavefront control with adaptive prediction of the atmosphere.

PubMed

Poyneer, Lisa A; Macintosh, Bruce A; Véran, Jean-Pierre

2007-09-01

Predictive Fourier control is a temporal power spectral density-based adaptive method for adaptive optics that predicts the atmosphere under the assumption of frozen flow. The predictive controller is based on Kalman filtering and a Fourier decomposition of atmospheric turbulence using the Fourier transform reconstructor. It provides a stable way to compensate for arbitrary numbers of atmospheric layers. For each Fourier mode, efficient and accurate algorithms estimate the necessary atmospheric parameters from closed-loop telemetry and determine the predictive filter, adjusting as conditions change. This prediction improves atmospheric rejection, leading to significant improvements in system performance. For a 48x48 actuator system operating at 2 kHz, five-layer prediction for all modes is achievable in under 2x10(9) floating-point operations/s.

The fatigue life prediction of aluminium alloy using genetic algorithm and neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susmikanti, Mike

2013-09-01

The behavior of the fatigue life of the industrial materials is very important. In many cases, the material with experiencing fatigue life cannot be avoided, however, there are many ways to control their behavior. Many investigations of the fatigue life phenomena of alloys have been done, but it is high cost and times consuming computation. This paper report the modeling and simulation approaches to predict the fatigue life behavior of Aluminum Alloys and resolves some problems of computation. First, the simulation using genetic algorithm was utilized to optimize the load to obtain the stress values. These results can be used to provide N-cycle fatigue life of the material. Furthermore, the experimental data was applied as input data in the neural network learning, while the samples data were applied for testing of the training data. Finally, the multilayer perceptron algorithm is applied to predict whether the given data sets in accordance with the fatigue life of the alloy. To achieve rapid convergence, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was also employed. The simulations results shows that the fatigue behaviors of aluminum under pressure can be predicted. In addition, implementation of neural networks successfully identified a model for material fatigue life.

Correlation of Wissler Human Thermal Model Blood Flow and Shiver Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bue, Grant; Makinen, Janice; Cognata, Thomas

2010-01-01

The Wissler Human Thermal Model (WHTM) is a thermal math model of the human body that has been widely used to predict the human thermoregulatory response to a variety of cold and hot environments. The model has been shown to predict core temperature and skin temperatures higher and lower, respectively, than in tests of subjects in crew escape suit working in a controlled hot environments. Conversely the model predicts core temperature and skin temperatures lower and higher, respectively, than in tests of lightly clad subjects immersed in cold water conditions. The blood flow algorithms of the model has been investigated to allow for more and less flow, respectively, for the cold and hot case. These changes in the model have yielded better correlation of skin and core temperatures in the cold and hot cases. The algorithm for onset of shiver did not need to be modified to achieve good agreement in cold immersion simulations

Comparison of different stomatal conductance algorithms for ozone flux modelling

Treesearch

P. Buker; L.D. Emberson; M. R. Ashmore; H. M. Cambridge; C. M. Jacobs; W. J. Massman; J. Muller; N. Nikolov; K. Novak; E. Oksanen; M. Schaub; D. de la Torre

2007-01-01

A multiplicative and a semi-mechanistic, BWB-type [Ball, J.T., Woodrow, I.E., Berry, J.A., 1987. A model predicting stomatal conductance and its contribution to the control of photosynthesis under different environmental conditions. In: Biggens, J. (Ed.), Progress in Photosynthesis Research, vol. IV. Martinus Nijhoff, Dordrecht, pp. 221-224.] algorithm for calculating...

EV Charging Algorithm Implementation with User Price Preference

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Bin; Hu, Boyang; Qiu, Charlie

2015-02-17

in this paper, we propose and implement a smart Electric Vehicle (EV) charging algorithm to control the EV charging infrastructures according to users’ price preferences. EVSE (Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment), equipped with bidirectional communication devices and smart meters, can be remotely monitored by the proposed charging algorithm applied to EV control center and mobile app. On the server side, ARIMA model is utilized to fit historical charging load data and perform day-ahead prediction. A pricing strategy with energy bidding policy is proposed and implemented to generate a charging price list to be broadcasted to EV users through mobile app. Onmore » the user side, EV drivers can submit their price preferences and daily travel schedules to negotiate with Control Center to consume the expected energy and minimize charging cost simultaneously. The proposed algorithm is tested and validated through the experimental implementations in UCLA parking lots.« less

Peak-Seeking Optimization of Trim for Reduced Fuel Consumption: Architecture and Performance Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaefer, Jacob; Brown, Nelson

2013-01-01

A peak-seeking control approach for real-time trim configuration optimization for reduced fuel consumption has been developed by researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Dryden Flight Research Center to address the goals of the NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation project to reduce fuel burn and emissions. The peak-seeking control approach is based on a steepest-descent algorithm using a time-varying Kalman filter to estimate the gradient of a performance function of fuel flow versus control surface positions. In real-time operation, deflections of symmetric ailerons, trailing-edge flaps, and leading-edge flaps of an FA-18 airplane (McDonnell Douglas, now The Boeing Company, Chicago, Illinois) are controlled for optimization of fuel flow. This presentation presents the design and integration of this peak-seeking controller on a modified NASA FA-18 airplane with research flight control computers. A research flight was performed to collect data to build a realistic model of the performance function and characterize measurement noise. This model was then implemented into a nonlinear six-degree-of-freedom FA-18 simulation along with the peak-seeking control algorithm. With the goal of eventual flight tests, the algorithm was first evaluated in the improved simulation environment. Results from the simulation predict good convergence on minimum fuel flow with a 2.5-percent reduction in fuel flow relative to the baseline trim of the aircraft.

Peak-Seeking Optimization of Trim for Reduced Fuel Consumption: Architecture and Performance Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaefer, Jacob; Brown, Nelson A.

2013-01-01

A peak-seeking control approach for real-time trim configuration optimization for reduced fuel consumption has been developed by researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Dryden Flight Research Center to address the goals of the NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation project to reduce fuel burn and emissions. The peak-seeking control approach is based on a steepest-descent algorithm using a time-varying Kalman filter to estimate the gradient of a performance function of fuel flow versus control surface positions. In real-time operation, deflections of symmetric ailerons, trailing-edge flaps, and leading-edge flaps of an F/A-18 airplane (McDonnell Douglas, now The Boeing Company, Chicago, Illinois) are controlled for optimization of fuel flow. This paper presents the design and integration of this peak-seeking controller on a modified NASA F/A-18 airplane with research flight control computers. A research flight was performed to collect data to build a realistic model of the performance function and characterize measurement noise. This model was then implemented into a nonlinear six-degree-of-freedom F/A-18 simulation along with the peak-seeking control algorithm. With the goal of eventual flight tests, the algorithm was first evaluated in the improved simulation environment. Results from the simulation predict good convergence on minimum fuel flow with a 2.5-percent reduction in fuel flow relative to the baseline trim of the aircraft.

IDMA-Based MAC Protocol for Satellite Networks with Consideration on Channel Quality

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

In order to overcome the shortcomings of existing medium access control (MAC) protocols based on TDMA or CDMA in satellite networks, interleave division multiple access (IDMA) technique is introduced into satellite communication networks. Therefore, a novel wide-band IDMA MAC protocol based on channel quality is proposed in this paper, consisting of a dynamic power allocation algorithm, a rate adaptation algorithm, and a call admission control (CAC) scheme. Firstly, the power allocation algorithm combining the technique of IDMA SINR-evolution and channel quality prediction is developed to guarantee high power efficiency even in terrible channel conditions. Secondly, the effective rate adaptation algorithm, based on accurate channel information per timeslot and by the means of rate degradation, can be realized. What is more, based on channel quality prediction, the CAC scheme, combining the new power allocation algorithm, rate scheduling, and buffering strategies together, is proposed for the emerging IDMA systems, which can support a variety of traffic types, and offering quality of service (QoS) requirements corresponding to different priority levels. Simulation results show that the new wide-band IDMA MAC protocol can make accurate estimation of available resource considering the effect of multiuser detection (MUD) and QoS requirements of multimedia traffic, leading to low outage probability as well as high overall system throughput. PMID:25126592

Analysis of Air Traffic Track Data with the AutoBayes Synthesis System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schumann, Johann Martin Philip; Cate, Karen; Lee, Alan G.

2010-01-01

The Next Generation Air Traffic System (NGATS) is aiming to provide substantial computer support for the air traffic controllers. Algorithms for the accurate prediction of aircraft movements are of central importance for such software systems but trajectory prediction has to work reliably in the presence of unknown parameters and uncertainties. We are using the AutoBayes program synthesis system to generate customized data analysis algorithms that process large sets of aircraft radar track data in order to estimate parameters and uncertainties. In this paper, we present, how the tasks of finding structure in track data, estimation of important parameters in climb trajectories, and the detection of continuous descent approaches can be accomplished with compact task-specific AutoBayes specifications. We present an overview of the AutoBayes architecture and describe, how its schema-based approach generates customized analysis algorithms, documented C/C++ code, and detailed mathematical derivations. Results of experiments with actual air traffic control data are discussed.

Hybrid robust predictive optimization method of power system dispatch

DOEpatents

Chandra, Ramu Sharat [Niskayuna, NY; Liu, Yan [Ballston Lake, NY; Bose, Sumit [Niskayuna, NY; de Bedout, Juan Manuel [West Glenville, NY

2011-08-02

A method of power system dispatch control solves power system dispatch problems by integrating a larger variety of generation, load and storage assets, including without limitation, combined heat and power (CHP) units, renewable generation with forecasting, controllable loads, electric, thermal and water energy storage. The method employs a predictive algorithm to dynamically schedule different assets in order to achieve global optimization and maintain the system normal operation.

Predictive classification of pediatric bipolar disorder using atlas-based diffusion weighted imaging and support vector machines.

PubMed

Mwangi, Benson; Wu, Mon-Ju; Bauer, Isabelle E; Modi, Haina; Zeni, Cristian P; Zunta-Soares, Giovana B; Hasan, Khader M; Soares, Jair C

2015-11-30

Previous studies have reported abnormalities of white-matter diffusivity in pediatric bipolar disorder. However, it has not been established whether these abnormalities are able to distinguish individual subjects with pediatric bipolar disorder from healthy controls with a high specificity and sensitivity. Diffusion-weighted imaging scans were acquired from 16 youths diagnosed with DSM-IV bipolar disorder and 16 demographically matched healthy controls. Regional white matter tissue microstructural measurements such as fractional anisotropy, axial diffusivity and radial diffusivity were computed using an atlas-based approach. These measurements were used to 'train' a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm to predict new or 'unseen' subjects' diagnostic labels. The SVM algorithm predicted individual subjects with specificity=87.5%, sensitivity=68.75%, accuracy=78.12%, positive predictive value=84.62%, negative predictive value=73.68%, area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC)=0.7812 and chi-square p-value=0.0012. A pattern of reduced regional white matter fractional anisotropy was observed in pediatric bipolar disorder patients. These results suggest that atlas-based diffusion weighted imaging measurements can distinguish individual pediatric bipolar disorder patients from healthy controls. Notably, from a clinical perspective these findings will contribute to the pathophysiological understanding of pediatric bipolar disorder. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observational study to calculate addictive risk to opioids: a validation study of a predictive algorithm to evaluate opioid use disorder

PubMed Central

Brenton, Ashley; Richeimer, Steven; Sharma, Maneesh; Lee, Chee; Kantorovich, Svetlana; Blanchard, John; Meshkin, Brian

2017-01-01

Background Opioid abuse in chronic pain patients is a major public health issue, with rapidly increasing addiction rates and deaths from unintentional overdose more than quadrupling since 1999. Purpose This study seeks to determine the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm incorporating phenotypic risk factors and neuroscience-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Patients and methods The Proove Opioid Risk (POR) algorithm determines the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm incorporating phenotypic risk factors and neuroscience-associated SNPs. In a validation study with 258 subjects with diagnosed opioid use disorder (OUD) and 650 controls who reported using opioids, the POR successfully categorized patients at high and moderate risks of opioid misuse or abuse with 95.7% sensitivity. Regardless of changes in the prevalence of opioid misuse or abuse, the sensitivity of POR remained >95%. Conclusion The POR correctly stratifies patients into low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories to appropriately identify patients at need for additional guidance, monitoring, or treatment changes. PMID:28572737

A Particle Swarm Optimization-Based Approach with Local Search for Predicting Protein Folding.

PubMed

Yang, Cheng-Hong; Lin, Yu-Shiun; Chuang, Li-Yeh; Chang, Hsueh-Wei

2017-10-01

The hydrophobic-polar (HP) model is commonly used for predicting protein folding structures and hydrophobic interactions. This study developed a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based algorithm combined with local search algorithms; specifically, the high exploration PSO (HEPSO) algorithm (which can execute global search processes) was combined with three local search algorithms (hill-climbing algorithm, greedy algorithm, and Tabu table), yielding the proposed HE-L-PSO algorithm. By using 20 known protein structures, we evaluated the performance of the HE-L-PSO algorithm in predicting protein folding in the HP model. The proposed HE-L-PSO algorithm exhibited favorable performance in predicting both short and long amino acid sequences with high reproducibility and stability, compared with seven reported algorithms. The HE-L-PSO algorithm yielded optimal solutions for all predicted protein folding structures. All HE-L-PSO-predicted protein folding structures possessed a hydrophobic core that is similar to normal protein folding.

Development of a generally applicable morphokinetic algorithm capable of predicting the implantation potential of embryos transferred on Day 3.

PubMed

Petersen, Bjørn Molt; Boel, Mikkel; Montag, Markus; Gardner, David K

2016-10-01

Can a generally applicable morphokinetic algorithm suitable for Day 3 transfers of time-lapse monitored embryos originating from different culture conditions and fertilization methods be developed for the purpose of supporting the embryologist's decision on which embryo to transfer back to the patient in assisted reproduction? The algorithm presented here can be used independently of culture conditions and fertilization method and provides predictive power not surpassed by other published algorithms for ranking embryos according to their blastocyst formation potential. Generally applicable algorithms have so far been developed only for predicting blastocyst formation. A number of clinics have reported validated implantation prediction algorithms, which have been developed based on clinic-specific culture conditions and clinical environment. However, a generally applicable embryo evaluation algorithm based on actual implantation outcome has not yet been reported. Retrospective evaluation of data extracted from a database of known implantation data (KID) originating from 3275 embryos transferred on Day 3 conducted in 24 clinics between 2009 and 2014. The data represented different culture conditions (reduced and ambient oxygen with various culture medium strategies) and fertilization methods (IVF, ICSI). The capability to predict blastocyst formation was evaluated on an independent set of morphokinetic data from 11 218 embryos which had been cultured to Day 5. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, The algorithm was developed by applying automated recursive partitioning to a large number of annotation types and derived equations, progressing to a five-fold cross-validation test of the complete data set and a validation test of different incubation conditions and fertilization methods. The results were expressed as receiver operating characteristics curves using the area under the curve (AUC) to establish the predictive strength of the algorithm. By applying the here developed algorithm (KIDScore), which was based on six annotations (the number of pronuclei equals 2 at the 1-cell stage, time from insemination to pronuclei fading at the 1-cell stage, time from insemination to the 2-cell stage, time from insemination to the 3-cell stage, time from insemination to the 5-cell stage and time from insemination to the 8-cell stage) and ranking the embryos in five groups, the implantation potential of the embryos was predicted with an AUC of 0.650. On Day 3 the KIDScore algorithm was capable of predicting blastocyst development with an AUC of 0.745 and blastocyst quality with an AUC of 0.679. In a comparison of blastocyst prediction including six other published algorithms and KIDScore, only KIDScore and one more algorithm surpassed an algorithm constructed on conventional Alpha/ESHRE consensus timings in terms of predictive power. Some morphological assessments were not available and consequently three of the algorithms in the comparison were not used in full and may therefore have been put at a disadvantage. Algorithms based on implantation data from Day 3 embryo transfers require adjustments to be capable of predicting the implantation potential of Day 5 embryo transfers. The current study is restricted by its retrospective nature and absence of live birth information. Prospective Randomized Controlled Trials should be used in future studies to establish the value of time-lapse technology and morphokinetic evaluation. Algorithms applicable to different culture conditions can be developed if based on large data sets of heterogeneous origin. This study was funded by Vitrolife A/S, Denmark and Vitrolife AB, Sweden. B.M.P.'s company BMP Analytics is performing consultancy for Vitrolife A/S. M.B. is employed at Vitrolife A/S. M.M.'s company ilabcomm GmbH received honorarium for consultancy from Vitrolife AB. D.K.G. received research support from Vitrolife AB. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology.

Development of a generally applicable morphokinetic algorithm capable of predicting the implantation potential of embryos transferred on Day 3

PubMed Central

Petersen, Bjørn Molt; Boel, Mikkel; Montag, Markus; Gardner, David K.

2016-01-01

STUDY QUESTION Can a generally applicable morphokinetic algorithm suitable for Day 3 transfers of time-lapse monitored embryos originating from different culture conditions and fertilization methods be developed for the purpose of supporting the embryologist's decision on which embryo to transfer back to the patient in assisted reproduction? SUMMARY ANSWER The algorithm presented here can be used independently of culture conditions and fertilization method and provides predictive power not surpassed by other published algorithms for ranking embryos according to their blastocyst formation potential. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Generally applicable algorithms have so far been developed only for predicting blastocyst formation. A number of clinics have reported validated implantation prediction algorithms, which have been developed based on clinic-specific culture conditions and clinical environment. However, a generally applicable embryo evaluation algorithm based on actual implantation outcome has not yet been reported. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION Retrospective evaluation of data extracted from a database of known implantation data (KID) originating from 3275 embryos transferred on Day 3 conducted in 24 clinics between 2009 and 2014. The data represented different culture conditions (reduced and ambient oxygen with various culture medium strategies) and fertilization methods (IVF, ICSI). The capability to predict blastocyst formation was evaluated on an independent set of morphokinetic data from 11 218 embryos which had been cultured to Day 5. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS The algorithm was developed by applying automated recursive partitioning to a large number of annotation types and derived equations, progressing to a five-fold cross-validation test of the complete data set and a validation test of different incubation conditions and fertilization methods. The results were expressed as receiver operating characteristics curves using the area under the curve (AUC) to establish the predictive strength of the algorithm. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE By applying the here developed algorithm (KIDScore), which was based on six annotations (the number of pronuclei equals 2 at the 1-cell stage, time from insemination to pronuclei fading at the 1-cell stage, time from insemination to the 2-cell stage, time from insemination to the 3-cell stage, time from insemination to the 5-cell stage and time from insemination to the 8-cell stage) and ranking the embryos in five groups, the implantation potential of the embryos was predicted with an AUC of 0.650. On Day 3 the KIDScore algorithm was capable of predicting blastocyst development with an AUC of 0.745 and blastocyst quality with an AUC of 0.679. In a comparison of blastocyst prediction including six other published algorithms and KIDScore, only KIDScore and one more algorithm surpassed an algorithm constructed on conventional Alpha/ESHRE consensus timings in terms of predictive power. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Some morphological assessments were not available and consequently three of the algorithms in the comparison were not used in full and may therefore have been put at a disadvantage. Algorithms based on implantation data from Day 3 embryo transfers require adjustments to be capable of predicting the implantation potential of Day 5 embryo transfers. The current study is restricted by its retrospective nature and absence of live birth information. Prospective Randomized Controlled Trials should be used in future studies to establish the value of time-lapse technology and morphokinetic evaluation. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS Algorithms applicable to different culture conditions can be developed if based on large data sets of heterogeneous origin. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This study was funded by Vitrolife A/S, Denmark and Vitrolife AB, Sweden. B.M.P.’s company BMP Analytics is performing consultancy for Vitrolife A/S. M.B. is employed at Vitrolife A/S. M.M.’s company ilabcomm GmbH received honorarium for consultancy from Vitrolife AB. D.K.G. received research support from Vitrolife AB. PMID:27609980

Advisory Algorithm for Scheduling Open Sectors, Operating Positions, and Workstations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloem, Michael; Drew, Michael; Lai, Chok Fung; Bilimoria, Karl D.

2012-01-01

Air traffic controller supervisors configure available sector, operating position, and work-station resources to safely and efficiently control air traffic in a region of airspace. In this paper, an algorithm for assisting supervisors with this task is described and demonstrated on two sample problem instances. The algorithm produces configuration schedule advisories that minimize a cost. The cost is a weighted sum of two competing costs: one penalizing mismatches between configurations and predicted air traffic demand and another penalizing the effort associated with changing configurations. The problem considered by the algorithm is a shortest path problem that is solved with a dynamic programming value iteration algorithm. The cost function contains numerous parameters. Default values for most of these are suggested based on descriptions of air traffic control procedures and subject-matter expert feedback. The parameter determining the relative importance of the two competing costs is tuned by comparing historical configurations with corresponding algorithm advisories. Two sample problem instances for which appropriate configuration advisories are obvious were designed to illustrate characteristics of the algorithm. Results demonstrate how the algorithm suggests advisories that appropriately utilize changes in airspace configurations and changes in the number of operating positions allocated to each open sector. The results also demonstrate how the advisories suggest appropriate times for configuration changes.

Direct cortical control of 3D neuroprosthetic devices.

PubMed

Taylor, Dawn M; Tillery, Stephen I Helms; Schwartz, Andrew B

2002-06-07

Three-dimensional (3D) movement of neuroprosthetic devices can be controlled by the activity of cortical neurons when appropriate algorithms are used to decode intended movement in real time. Previous studies assumed that neurons maintain fixed tuning properties, and the studies used subjects who were unaware of the movements predicted by their recorded units. In this study, subjects had real-time visual feedback of their brain-controlled trajectories. Cell tuning properties changed when used for brain-controlled movements. By using control algorithms that track these changes, subjects made long sequences of 3D movements using far fewer cortical units than expected. Daily practice improved movement accuracy and the directional tuning of these units.

An improved predictive functional control method with application to PMSM systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shihua; Liu, Huixian; Fu, Wenshu

2017-01-01

In common design of prediction model-based control method, usually disturbances are not considered in the prediction model as well as the control design. For the control systems with large amplitude or strong disturbances, it is difficult to precisely predict the future outputs according to the conventional prediction model, and thus the desired optimal closed-loop performance will be degraded to some extent. To this end, an improved predictive functional control (PFC) method is developed in this paper by embedding disturbance information into the system model. Here, a composite prediction model is thus obtained by embedding the estimated value of disturbances, where disturbance observer (DOB) is employed to estimate the lumped disturbances. So the influence of disturbances on system is taken into account in optimisation procedure. Finally, considering the speed control problem for permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) servo system, a control scheme based on the improved PFC method is designed to ensure an optimal closed-loop performance even in the presence of disturbances. Simulation and experimental results based on a hardware platform are provided to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

A prototype methodology combining surface-enhanced laser desorption/ionization protein chip technology and artificial neural network algorithms to predict the chemoresponsiveness of breast cancer cell lines exposed to Paclitaxel and Doxorubicin under in vitro conditions.

PubMed

Mian, Shahid; Ball, Graham; Hornbuckle, Jo; Holding, Finn; Carmichael, James; Ellis, Ian; Ali, Selman; Li, Geng; McArdle, Stephanie; Creaser, Colin; Rees, Robert

2003-09-01

An ability to predict the likelihood of cellular response towards particular chemotherapeutic agents based upon protein expression patterns could facilitate the identification of biological molecules with previously undefined roles in the process of chemoresistance/chemosensitivity, and if robust enough these patterns might also be exploited towards the development of novel predictive assays. To ascertain whether proteomic based molecular profiling in conjunction with artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms could be applied towards the specific recognition of phenotypic patterns between either control or drug treated and chemosensitive or chemoresistant cellular populations, a combined approach involving MALDI-TOF matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry, Ciphergen protein chip technology and ANN algorithms have been applied to specifically identify proteomic 'fingerprints' indicative of treatment regimen for chemosensitive (MCF-7, T47D) and chemoresistant (MCF-7/ADR) breast cancer cell lines following exposure to Doxorubicin or Paclitaxel. The results indicate that proteomic patterns can be identified by ANN algorithms to correctly assign 'class' for treatment regimen (e.g. control/drug treated or chemosensitive/chemoresistant) with a high degree of accuracy using boot-strap statistical validation techniques and that biomarker ion patterns indicative of response/non-response phenotypes are associated with MCF-7 and MCF-7/ADR cells exposed to Doxorubicin. We have also examined the predictive capability of this approach towards MCF-7 and T47D cells to ascertain whether prediction could be made based upon treatment regimen irrespective of cell lineage. Models were identified that could correctly assign class (control or Paclitaxel treatment) for 35/38 samples of an independent dataset. A similar level of predictive capability was also found (> 92%; n = 28) when proteomic patterns derived from the drug resistant cell line MCF-7/ADR were compared against those derived from MCF-7 and T47D as a model system of drug resistant and drug sensitive phenotypes. This approach might offer a potential methodology for predicting the biological behaviour of cancer cells towards particular chemotherapeutics and through protein isolation and sequence identification could result in the identification of biological molecules associated with chemosensitive/chemoresistance tumour phenotypes.

Predicting Recovery Potential for Individual Stroke Patients Increases Rehabilitation Efficiency.

PubMed

Stinear, Cathy M; Byblow, Winston D; Ackerley, Suzanne J; Barber, P Alan; Smith, Marie-Claire

2017-04-01

Several clinical measures and biomarkers are associated with motor recovery after stroke, but none are used to guide rehabilitation for individual patients. The objective of this study was to evaluate the implementation of upper limb predictions in stroke rehabilitation, by combining clinical measures and biomarkers using the Predict Recovery Potential (PREP) algorithm. Predictions were provided for patients in the implementation group (n=110) and withheld from the comparison group (n=82). Predictions guided rehabilitation therapy focus for patients in the implementation group. The effects of predictive information on clinical practice (length of stay, therapist confidence, therapy content, and dose) were evaluated. Clinical outcomes (upper limb function, impairment and use, independence, and quality of life) were measured 3 and 6 months poststroke. The primary clinical practice outcome was inpatient length of stay. The primary clinical outcome was Action Research Arm Test score 3 months poststroke. Length of stay was 1 week shorter for the implementation group (11 days; 95% confidence interval, 9-13 days) than the comparison group (17 days; 95% confidence interval, 14-21 days; P =0.001), controlling for upper limb impairment, age, sex, and comorbidities. Therapists were more confident ( P =0.004) and modified therapy content according to predictions for the implementation group ( P <0.05). The algorithm correctly predicted the primary clinical outcome for 80% of patients in both groups. There were no adverse effects of algorithm implementation on patient outcomes at 3 or 6 months poststroke. PREP algorithm predictions modify therapy content and increase rehabilitation efficiency after stroke without compromising clinical outcome. URL: http://anzctr.org.au. Unique identifier: ACTRN12611000755932. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

A comparative study of machine learning methods for time-to-event survival data for radiomics risk modelling.

PubMed

Leger, Stefan; Zwanenburg, Alex; Pilz, Karoline; Lohaus, Fabian; Linge, Annett; Zöphel, Klaus; Kotzerke, Jörg; Schreiber, Andreas; Tinhofer, Inge; Budach, Volker; Sak, Ali; Stuschke, Martin; Balermpas, Panagiotis; Rödel, Claus; Ganswindt, Ute; Belka, Claus; Pigorsch, Steffi; Combs, Stephanie E; Mönnich, David; Zips, Daniel; Krause, Mechthild; Baumann, Michael; Troost, Esther G C; Löck, Steffen; Richter, Christian

2017-10-16

Radiomics applies machine learning algorithms to quantitative imaging data to characterise the tumour phenotype and predict clinical outcome. For the development of radiomics risk models, a variety of different algorithms is available and it is not clear which one gives optimal results. Therefore, we assessed the performance of 11 machine learning algorithms combined with 12 feature selection methods by the concordance index (C-Index), to predict loco-regional tumour control (LRC) and overall survival for patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The considered algorithms are able to deal with continuous time-to-event survival data. Feature selection and model building were performed on a multicentre cohort (213 patients) and validated using an independent cohort (80 patients). We found several combinations of machine learning algorithms and feature selection methods which achieve similar results, e.g. C-Index = 0.71 and BT-COX: C-Index = 0.70 in combination with Spearman feature selection. Using the best performing models, patients were stratified into groups of low and high risk of recurrence. Significant differences in LRC were obtained between both groups on the validation cohort. Based on the presented analysis, we identified a subset of algorithms which should be considered in future radiomics studies to develop stable and clinically relevant predictive models for time-to-event endpoints.

Predictive optimal control of sewer networks using CORAL tool: application to Riera Blanca catchment in Barcelona.

PubMed

Puig, V; Cembrano, G; Romera, J; Quevedo, J; Aznar, B; Ramón, G; Cabot, J

2009-01-01

This paper deals with the global control of the Riera Blanca catchment in the Barcelona sewer network using a predictive optimal control approach. This catchment has been modelled using a conceptual modelling approach based on decomposing the catchments in subcatchments and representing them as virtual tanks. This conceptual modelling approach allows real-time model calibration and control of the sewer network. The global control problem of the Riera Blanca catchment is solved using a optimal/predictive control algorithm. To implement the predictive optimal control of the Riera Blanca catchment, a software tool named CORAL is used. The on-line control is simulated by interfacing CORAL with a high fidelity simulator of sewer networks (MOUSE). CORAL interchanges readings from the limnimeters and gate commands with MOUSE as if it was connected with the real SCADA system. Finally, the global control results obtained using the predictive optimal control are presented and compared against the results obtained using current local control system. The results obtained using the global control are very satisfactory compared to those obtained using the local control.

I-SAVE: AN INTERACTIVE REAL-TIME MONITOR AND CONTROLLER TO INFLUENCE ENERGY CONSERVATION BEHAVIOR BY IMPULSE SAVING

EPA Science Inventory

Simulation-based model to explore the benefits of monitoring and control to energy saving opportunities in residential homes; an adaptive algorithm to predict the type of electrical loads; a prototype user friendly interface monitoring and control device to save energy; a p...

Real time optimal guidance of low-thrust spacecraft: an application of nonlinear model predictive control.

PubMed

Arrieta-Camacho, Juan José; Biegler, Lorenz T

2005-12-01

Real time optimal guidance is considered for a class of low thrust spacecraft. In particular, nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) is utilized for computing the optimal control actions required to transfer a spacecraft from a low Earth orbit to a mission orbit. The NMPC methodology presented is able to cope with unmodeled disturbances. The dynamics of the transfer are modeled using a set of modified equinoctial elements because they do not exhibit singularities for zero inclination and zero eccentricity. The idea behind NMPC is the repeated solution of optimal control problems; at each time step, a new control action is computed. The optimal control problem is solved using a direct method-fully discretizing the equations of motion. The large scale nonlinear program resulting from the discretization procedure is solved using IPOPT--a primal-dual interior point algorithm. Stability and robustness characteristics of the NMPC algorithm are reviewed. A numerical example is presented that encourages further development of the proposed methodology: the transfer from low-Earth orbit to a molniya orbit.

Real-time Upstream Monitoring System (RUMS): Forecasting arrival times of interplanetary shocks using energetic particle data from ACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, G.; Donegan, M.; Vandegriff, J.; Wagstaff, K.

We have created a system for predicting the arrival times at Earth of interplanetary (IP) shocks that originate at the Sun. This system is currently available on the web (http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RISP/index.html) and runs in real-time. Input data to our prediction algorithm is energetic particle data from the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument on NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Real-time EPAM data is obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Environment Center (SEC). Our algorithm operates in two stages. First it watches for a velocity dispersion signature (energetic ions show flux enhancement followed by subsequent enhancements in lower energies), which is commonly seen upstream of a large IP shock. Once a precursor signature has been detected, a pattern recognition algorithm is used to analyze the time series profile of the particle data and generate an estimate for the shock arrival time. Tests on the algorithm show an average error of roughly 9 hours for predictions made 24 hours before the shock arrival and roughly 5 hours when the shock is 12 hours away. This can provide significant lead-time and deliver critical information to mission planners, satellite operations controllers, and scientists. As of February 4, 2004, the ACE real-time stream has been switched to include data from another detector on EPAM. We are now processing the new real-time data stream and have made improvements to our algorithm based on this data. In this paper, we report prediction results from the updated algorithm.

A Simple Two Aircraft Conflict Resolution Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chatterji, Gano B.

2006-01-01

Conflict detection and resolution methods are crucial for distributed air-ground traffic management in which the crew in, the cockpit, dispatchers in operation control centers sad and traffic controllers in the ground-based air traffic management facilities share information and participate in the traffic flow and traffic control functions. This paper describes a conflict detection, and a conflict resolution method. The conflict detection method predicts the minimum separation and the time-to-go to the closest point of approach by assuming that both the aircraft will continue to fly at their current speeds along their current headings. The conflict resolution method described here is motivated by the proportional navigation algorithm, which is often used for missile guidance during the terminal phase. It generates speed and heading commands to rotate the line-of-sight either clockwise or counter-clockwise for conflict resolution. Once the aircraft achieve a positive range-rate and no further conflict is predicted, the algorithm generates heading commands to turn back the aircraft to their nominal trajectories. The speed commands are set to the optimal pre-resolution speeds. Six numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the conflict detection, and the conflict resolution methods.

A problem of optimal control and observation for distributed homogeneous multi-agent system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruglikov, Sergey V.

2017-12-01

The paper considers the implementation of a algorithm for controlling a distributed complex of several mobile multi-robots. The concept of a unified information space of the controlling system is applied. The presented information and mathematical models of participants and obstacles, as real agents, and goals and scenarios, as virtual agents, create the base forming the algorithmic and software background for computer decision support system. The controlling scheme assumes the indirect management of the robotic team on the basis of optimal control and observation problem predicting intellectual behavior in a dynamic, hostile environment. A basic content problem is a compound cargo transportation by a group of participants in the case of a distributed control scheme in the terrain with multiple obstacles.

Development of a combined feed forward-feedback system for an electron Linac

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, E.; Biedron, S. G.; LeBlanc, G.; Morgan, M. J.; Wu, J.

2009-10-01

This paper describes the results of an advanced control algorithm for the stabilization of electron beam energy in a Linac. The approach combines a conventional Proportional-Integral (PI) controller with a neural network (NNET) feed forward algorithm; it utilizes the robustness of PI control and the ability of a feed forward system in order to exert control over a wider range of frequencies. The NNET is trained to recognize jitter occurring in the phase and voltage of one of the klystrons, based on a record of these parameters, and predicts future energy deviations. A systematic approach is developed to determine the optimal NNET parameters that are then applied to the Australian Synchrotron Linac. The system's capability to fully cancel multi-frequency jitter is demonstrated. The NNET system is then augmented with the PI algorithm, and further jitter attenuation is achieved when the NNET is not operating optimally.

Minimalist ensemble algorithms for genome-wide protein localization prediction.

PubMed

Lin, Jhih-Rong; Mondal, Ananda Mohan; Liu, Rong; Hu, Jianjun

2012-07-03

Computational prediction of protein subcellular localization can greatly help to elucidate its functions. Despite the existence of dozens of protein localization prediction algorithms, the prediction accuracy and coverage are still low. Several ensemble algorithms have been proposed to improve the prediction performance, which usually include as many as 10 or more individual localization algorithms. However, their performance is still limited by the running complexity and redundancy among individual prediction algorithms. This paper proposed a novel method for rational design of minimalist ensemble algorithms for practical genome-wide protein subcellular localization prediction. The algorithm is based on combining a feature selection based filter and a logistic regression classifier. Using a novel concept of contribution scores, we analyzed issues of algorithm redundancy, consensus mistakes, and algorithm complementarity in designing ensemble algorithms. We applied the proposed minimalist logistic regression (LR) ensemble algorithm to two genome-wide datasets of Yeast and Human and compared its performance with current ensemble algorithms. Experimental results showed that the minimalist ensemble algorithm can achieve high prediction accuracy with only 1/3 to 1/2 of individual predictors of current ensemble algorithms, which greatly reduces computational complexity and running time. It was found that the high performance ensemble algorithms are usually composed of the predictors that together cover most of available features. Compared to the best individual predictor, our ensemble algorithm improved the prediction accuracy from AUC score of 0.558 to 0.707 for the Yeast dataset and from 0.628 to 0.646 for the Human dataset. Compared with popular weighted voting based ensemble algorithms, our classifier-based ensemble algorithms achieved much better performance without suffering from inclusion of too many individual predictors. We proposed a method for rational design of minimalist ensemble algorithms using feature selection and classifiers. The proposed minimalist ensemble algorithm based on logistic regression can achieve equal or better prediction performance while using only half or one-third of individual predictors compared to other ensemble algorithms. The results also suggested that meta-predictors that take advantage of a variety of features by combining individual predictors tend to achieve the best performance. The LR ensemble server and related benchmark datasets are available at http://mleg.cse.sc.edu/LRensemble/cgi-bin/predict.cgi.

Minimalist ensemble algorithms for genome-wide protein localization prediction

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Computational prediction of protein subcellular localization can greatly help to elucidate its functions. Despite the existence of dozens of protein localization prediction algorithms, the prediction accuracy and coverage are still low. Several ensemble algorithms have been proposed to improve the prediction performance, which usually include as many as 10 or more individual localization algorithms. However, their performance is still limited by the running complexity and redundancy among individual prediction algorithms. Results This paper proposed a novel method for rational design of minimalist ensemble algorithms for practical genome-wide protein subcellular localization prediction. The algorithm is based on combining a feature selection based filter and a logistic regression classifier. Using a novel concept of contribution scores, we analyzed issues of algorithm redundancy, consensus mistakes, and algorithm complementarity in designing ensemble algorithms. We applied the proposed minimalist logistic regression (LR) ensemble algorithm to two genome-wide datasets of Yeast and Human and compared its performance with current ensemble algorithms. Experimental results showed that the minimalist ensemble algorithm can achieve high prediction accuracy with only 1/3 to 1/2 of individual predictors of current ensemble algorithms, which greatly reduces computational complexity and running time. It was found that the high performance ensemble algorithms are usually composed of the predictors that together cover most of available features. Compared to the best individual predictor, our ensemble algorithm improved the prediction accuracy from AUC score of 0.558 to 0.707 for the Yeast dataset and from 0.628 to 0.646 for the Human dataset. Compared with popular weighted voting based ensemble algorithms, our classifier-based ensemble algorithms achieved much better performance without suffering from inclusion of too many individual predictors. Conclusions We proposed a method for rational design of minimalist ensemble algorithms using feature selection and classifiers. The proposed minimalist ensemble algorithm based on logistic regression can achieve equal or better prediction performance while using only half or one-third of individual predictors compared to other ensemble algorithms. The results also suggested that meta-predictors that take advantage of a variety of features by combining individual predictors tend to achieve the best performance. The LR ensemble server and related benchmark datasets are available at http://mleg.cse.sc.edu/LRensemble/cgi-bin/predict.cgi. PMID:22759391

A Consensus Method for the Prediction of ‘Aggregation-Prone’ Peptides in Globular Proteins

PubMed Central

Tsolis, Antonios C.; Papandreou, Nikos C.; Iconomidou, Vassiliki A.; Hamodrakas, Stavros J.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this work was to construct a consensus prediction algorithm of ‘aggregation-prone’ peptides in globular proteins, combining existing tools. This allows comparison of the different algorithms and the production of more objective and accurate results. Eleven (11) individual methods are combined and produce AMYLPRED2, a publicly, freely available web tool to academic users (http://biophysics.biol.uoa.gr/AMYLPRED2), for the consensus prediction of amyloidogenic determinants/‘aggregation-prone’ peptides in proteins, from sequence alone. The performance of AMYLPRED2 indicates that it functions better than individual aggregation-prediction algorithms, as perhaps expected. AMYLPRED2 is a useful tool for identifying amyloid-forming regions in proteins that are associated with several conformational diseases, called amyloidoses, such as Altzheimer's, Parkinson's, prion diseases and type II diabetes. It may also be useful for understanding the properties of protein folding and misfolding and for helping to the control of protein aggregation/solubility in biotechnology (recombinant proteins forming bacterial inclusion bodies) and biotherapeutics (monoclonal antibodies and biopharmaceutical proteins). PMID:23326595

Methods for predicting unsteady takeoff and landing trajectories of the aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shevchenko, A.; Pavlov, B.; Nachinkina, G.

2017-01-01

Informational and situational awareness of the aircrew greatly affects the probability of accidents, during takeoff and landing in particular. For the purpose of assessing the current and predicting the future states of an aircraft the energy approach to the flight control is used. Key energy balance equation is generalized to the ground phases. The equation describes the process of accumulating of the total energy of the aircraft along the entire trajectory, including the segment ahead. This segment length is defined by the required terminal energy state. For the takeoff phase the predict algorithm calculates the aircraft position on a runway after which it is possible to accelerate up to the speed of steady level flight and to reach the altitude sufficient for overcoming the high-rise obstacles. For the landing phase the braking distance length is determined. For increasing the likelihood of predicting the correction of the algorithm is introduced. The results of modeling many takeoffs and landings of passenger liner with different weights with the ahead obstacle and the engine failure are given. Working availability of the algorithm correction is shown.

Sequencing batch-reactor control using Gaussian-process models.

PubMed

Kocijan, Juš; Hvala, Nadja

2013-06-01

This paper presents a Gaussian-process (GP) model for the design of sequencing batch-reactor (SBR) control for wastewater treatment. The GP model is a probabilistic, nonparametric model with uncertainty predictions. In the case of SBR control, it is used for the on-line optimisation of the batch-phases duration. The control algorithm follows the course of the indirect process variables (pH, redox potential and dissolved oxygen concentration) and recognises the characteristic patterns in their time profile. The control algorithm uses GP-based regression to smooth the signals and GP-based classification for the pattern recognition. When tested on the signals from an SBR laboratory pilot plant, the control algorithm provided a satisfactory agreement between the proposed completion times and the actual termination times of the biodegradation processes. In a set of tested batches the final ammonia and nitrate concentrations were below 1 and 0.5 mg L(-1), respectively, while the aeration time was shortened considerably. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Insight into efficient image registration techniques and the demons algorithm.

PubMed

Vercauteren, Tom; Pennec, Xavier; Malis, Ezio; Perchant, Aymeric; Ayache, Nicholas

2007-01-01

As image registration becomes more and more central to many biomedical imaging applications, the efficiency of the algorithms becomes a key issue. Image registration is classically performed by optimizing a similarity criterion over a given spatial transformation space. Even if this problem is considered as almost solved for linear registration, we show in this paper that some tools that have recently been developed in the field of vision-based robot control can outperform classical solutions. The adequacy of these tools for linear image registration leads us to revisit non-linear registration and allows us to provide interesting theoretical roots to the different variants of Thirion's demons algorithm. This analysis predicts a theoretical advantage to the symmetric forces variant of the demons algorithm. We show that, on controlled experiments, this advantage is confirmed, and yields a faster convergence.

UAV Control on the Basis of 3D Landmark Bearing-Only Observations.

PubMed

Karpenko, Simon; Konovalenko, Ivan; Miller, Alexander; Miller, Boris; Nikolaev, Dmitry

2015-11-27

The article presents an approach to the control of a UAV on the basis of 3D landmark observations. The novelty of the work is the usage of the 3D RANSAC algorithm developed on the basis of the landmarks' position prediction with the aid of a modified Kalman-type filter. Modification of the filter based on the pseudo-measurements approach permits obtaining unbiased UAV position estimation with quadratic error characteristics. Modeling of UAV flight on the basis of the suggested algorithm shows good performance, even under significant external perturbations.

Optimal Predictive Control for Path Following of a Full Drive-by-Wire Vehicle at Varying Speeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SONG, Pan; GAO, Bolin; XIE, Shugang; FANG, Rui

2017-05-01

The current research of the global chassis control problem for the full drive-by-wire vehicle focuses on the control allocation (CA) of the four-wheel-distributed traction/braking/steering systems. However, the path following performance and the handling stability of the vehicle can be enhanced a step further by automatically adjusting the vehicle speed to the optimal value. The optimal solution for the combined longitudinal and lateral motion control (MC) problem is given. First, a new variable step-size spatial transformation method is proposed and utilized in the prediction model to derive the dynamics of the vehicle with respect to the road, such that the tracking errors can be explicitly obtained over the prediction horizon at varying speeds. Second, a nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) algorithm is introduced to handle the nonlinear coupling between any two directions of the vehicular planar motion and computes the sequence of the optimal motion states for following the desired path. Third, a hierarchical control structure is proposed to separate the motion controller into a NMPC based path planner and a terminal sliding mode control (TSMC) based path follower. As revealed through off-line simulations, the hierarchical methodology brings nearly 1700% improvement in computational efficiency without loss of control performance. Finally, the control algorithm is verified through a hardware in-the-loop simulation system. Double-lane-change (DLC) test results show that by using the optimal predictive controller, the root-mean-square (RMS) values of the lateral deviations and the orientation errors can be reduced by 41% and 30%, respectively, comparing to those by the optimal preview acceleration (OPA) driver model with the non-preview speed-tracking method. Additionally, the average vehicle speed is increased by 0.26 km/h with the peak sideslip angle suppressed to 1.9°. This research proposes a novel motion controller, which provides the full drive-by-wire vehicle with better lane-keeping and collision-avoidance capabilities during autonomous driving.

Simulation of the Predictive Control Algorithm for Container Crane Operation using Matlab Fuzzy Logic Tool Box

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, Albert O.

1997-01-01

This research has investigated the use of fuzzy logic, via the Matlab Fuzzy Logic Tool Box, to design optimized controller systems. The engineering system for which the controller was designed and simulate was the container crane. The fuzzy logic algorithm that was investigated was the 'predictive control' algorithm. The plant dynamics of the container crane is representative of many important systems including robotic arm movements. The container crane that was investigated had a trolley motor and hoist motor. Total distance to be traveled by the trolley was 15 meters. The obstruction height was 5 meters. Crane height was 17.8 meters. Trolley mass was 7500 kilograms. Load mass was 6450 kilograms. Maximum trolley and rope velocities were 1.25 meters per sec. and 0.3 meters per sec., respectively. The fuzzy logic approach allowed the inclusion, in the controller model, of performance indices that are more effectively defined in linguistic terms. These include 'safety' and 'cargo swaying'. Two fuzzy inference systems were implemented using the Matlab simulation package, namely the Mamdani system (which relates fuzzy input variables to fuzzy output variables), and the Sugeno system (which relates fuzzy input variables to crisp output variable). It is found that the Sugeno FIS is better suited to including aspects of those plant dynamics whose mathematical relationships can be determined.

Predicting the survival of diabetes using neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamuda, Mamman; Sathasivam, Saratha

2017-08-01

Data mining techniques at the present time are used in predicting diseases of health care industries. Neural Network is one among the prevailing method in data mining techniques of an intelligent field for predicting diseases in health care industries. This paper presents a study on the prediction of the survival of diabetes diseases using different learning algorithms from the supervised learning algorithms of neural network. Three learning algorithms are considered in this study: (i) The levenberg-marquardt learning algorithm (ii) The Bayesian regulation learning algorithm and (iii) The scaled conjugate gradient learning algorithm. The network is trained using the Pima Indian Diabetes Dataset with the help of MATLAB R2014(a) software. The performance of each algorithm is further discussed through regression analysis. The prediction accuracy of the best algorithm is further computed to validate the accurate prediction

Efficient Strategies for Predictive Cell-Level Control of Lithium-Ion Batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xavier, Marcelo A.

This dissertation introduces a set of state-space based model predictive control (MPC) algorithms tailored to a non-zero feedthrough term to account for the ohmic resistance that is inherent to the battery dynamics. MPC is herein applied to the problem of regulating cell-level measures of performance for lithium-ion batteries; the control methodologies are used first to compute a fast charging profile that respects input, output, and state constraints, i.e., input current, terminal voltage, and state of charge for an equivalent circuit model of the battery cell, and extended later to a linearized physics-based reduced-order model. The novelty of this work can summarized as follows: (1) the MPC variants are employed to a physics based reduce-order model in order to make use of the available set of internal electrochemical variables and mitigate internal mechanisms of cell degradation. (e.g., lithium plating); (2) we developed a dual-mode MPC closed-loop paradigm that suits the battery control problem with the objective of reducing computational effort by solving simpler optimization routines and guaranteeing stability; and finally (3) we developed a completely new approach of the use of a predictive control strategy where MPC is employed as a "smart sensor" for power estimation. Results are presented that show the comparative performance of the MPC algorithms for both EMC and PBROM These results highlight that dual-mode MPC can deliver optimal input current profiles by using a shorter horizon while still guaranteeing stability. Additionally, rigorous mathematical developments are presented for the development of the MPC algorithms. The use of MPC as a "smart sensor" presents it self as an appealing method for power estimation, since MPC permits a fully dynamic input profile that is able to achieve performance right at the proper constraint boundaries. Therefore, MPC is expected to produce accurate power limits for each computed sample time when compared to the Bisection method [1] which assumes constant input values over the prediction interval.

Development and validation of an electronic phenotyping algorithm for chronic kidney disease

PubMed Central

Nadkarni, Girish N; Gottesman, Omri; Linneman, James G; Chase, Herbert; Berg, Richard L; Farouk, Samira; Nadukuru, Rajiv; Lotay, Vaneet; Ellis, Steve; Hripcsak, George; Peissig, Peggy; Weng, Chunhua; Bottinger, Erwin P

2014-01-01

Twenty-six million Americans are estimated to have chronic kidney disease (CKD) with increased risk for cardiovascular disease and end stage renal disease. CKD is frequently undiagnosed and patients are unaware, hampering intervention. A tool for accurate and timely identification of CKD from electronic medical records (EMR) could improve healthcare quality and identify patients for research. As members of eMERGE (electronic medical records and genomics) Network, we developed an automated phenotyping algorithm that can be deployed to identify rapidly diabetic and/or hypertensive CKD cases and controls in health systems with EMRs It uses diagnostic codes, laboratory results, medication and blood pressure records, and textual information culled from notes. Validation statistics demonstrated positive predictive values of 96% and negative predictive values of 93.3. Similar results were obtained on implementation by two independent eMERGE member institutions. The algorithm dramatically outperformed identification by ICD-9-CM codes with 63% positive and 54% negative predictive values, respectively. PMID:25954398

Prediction of outcome in internet-delivered cognitive behaviour therapy for paediatric obsessive-compulsive disorder: A machine learning approach.

PubMed

Lenhard, Fabian; Sauer, Sebastian; Andersson, Erik; Månsson, Kristoffer Nt; Mataix-Cols, David; Rück, Christian; Serlachius, Eva

2018-03-01

There are no consistent predictors of treatment outcome in paediatric obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). One reason for this might be the use of suboptimal statistical methodology. Machine learning is an approach to efficiently analyse complex data. Machine learning has been widely used within other fields, but has rarely been tested in the prediction of paediatric mental health treatment outcomes. To test four different machine learning methods in the prediction of treatment response in a sample of paediatric OCD patients who had received Internet-delivered cognitive behaviour therapy (ICBT). Participants were 61 adolescents (12-17 years) who enrolled in a randomized controlled trial and received ICBT. All clinical baseline variables were used to predict strictly defined treatment response status three months after ICBT. Four machine learning algorithms were implemented. For comparison, we also employed a traditional logistic regression approach. Multivariate logistic regression could not detect any significant predictors. In contrast, all four machine learning algorithms performed well in the prediction of treatment response, with 75 to 83% accuracy. The results suggest that machine learning algorithms can successfully be applied to predict paediatric OCD treatment outcome. Validation studies and studies in other disorders are warranted. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Guidance and control of swarms of spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, Daniel James

There has been considerable interest in formation flying spacecraft due to their potential to perform certain tasks at a cheaper cost than monolithic spacecraft. Formation flying enables the use of smaller, cheaper spacecraft that distribute the risk of the mission. Recently, the ideas of formation flying have been extended to spacecraft swarms made up of hundreds to thousands of 100-gram-class spacecraft known as femtosatellites. The large number of spacecraft and limited capabilities of each individual spacecraft present a significant challenge in guidance, navigation, and control. This dissertation deals with the guidance and control algorithms required to enable the flight of spacecraft swarms. The algorithms developed in this dissertation are focused on achieving two main goals: swarm keeping and swarm reconfiguration. The objectives of swarm keeping are to maintain bounded relative distances between spacecraft, prevent collisions between spacecraft, and minimize the propellant used by each spacecraft. Swarm reconfiguration requires the transfer of the swarm to a specific shape. Like with swarm keeping, minimizing the propellant used and preventing collisions are the main objectives. Additionally, the algorithms required for swarm keeping and swarm reconfiguration should be decentralized with respect to communication and computation so that they can be implemented on femtosats, which have limited hardware capabilities. The algorithms developed in this dissertation are concerned with swarms located in low Earth orbit. In these orbits, Earth oblateness and atmospheric drag have a significant effect on the relative motion of the swarm. The complicated dynamic environment of low Earth orbits further complicates the swarm-keeping and swarm-reconfiguration problems. To better develop and test these algorithms, a nonlinear, relative dynamic model with J2 and drag perturbations is developed. This model is used throughout this dissertation to validate the algorithms using computer simulations. The swarm-keeping problem can be solved by placing the spacecraft on J2-invariant relative orbits, which prevent collisions and minimize the drift of the swarm over hundreds of orbits using a single burn. These orbits are achieved by energy matching the spacecraft to the reference orbit. Additionally, these conditions can be repeatedly applied to minimize the drift of the swarm when atmospheric drag has a large effect (orbits with an altitude under 500 km). The swarm reconfiguration is achieved using two steps: trajectory optimization and assignment. The trajectory optimization problem can be written as a nonlinear, optimal control problem. This optimal control problem is discretized, decoupled, and convexified so that the individual femtosats can efficiently solve the optimization. Sequential convex programming is used to generate the control sequences and trajectories required to safely and efficiently transfer a spacecraft from one position to another. The sequence of trajectories is shown to converge to a Karush-Kuhn-Tucker point of the nonconvex problem. In the case where many of the spacecraft are interchangeable, a variable-swarm, distributed auction algorithm is used to determine the assignment of spacecraft to target positions. This auction algorithm requires only local communication and all of the bidding parameters are stored locally. The assignment generated using this auction algorithm is shown to be near optimal and to converge in a finite number of bids. Additionally, the bidding process is used to modify the number of targets used in the assignment so that the reconfiguration can be achieved even when there is a disconnected communication network or a significant loss of agents. Once the assignment is achieved, the trajectory optimization can be run using the terminal positions determined by the auction algorithm. To implement these algorithms in real time a model predictive control formulation is used. Model predictive control uses a finite horizon to apply the most up-to-date control sequence while simultaneously calculating a new assignment and trajectory based on updated state information. Using a finite horizon allows collisions to only be considered between spacecraft that are near each other at the current time. This relaxes the all-to-all communication assumption so that only neighboring agents need to communicate. Experimental validation is done using the formation flying testbed. The swarm-reconfiguration algorithms are tested using multiple quadrotors. Experiments have been performed using sequential convex programming for offline trajectory planning, model predictive control and sequential convex programming for real-time trajectory generation, and the variable-swarm, distributed auction algorithm for optimal assignment. These experiments show that the swarm-reconfiguration algorithms can be implemented in real time using actual hardware. In general, this dissertation presents guidance and control algorithms that maintain and reconfigure swarms of spacecraft while maintaining the shape of the swarm, preventing collisions between the spacecraft, and minimizing the amount of propellant used.

Predictive factors for renal failure and a control and treatment algorithm

PubMed Central

Cerqueira, Denise de Paula; Tavares, José Roberto; Machado, Regimar Carla

2014-01-01

Objectives to evaluate the renal function of patients in an intensive care unit, to identify the predisposing factors for the development of renal failure, and to develop an algorithm to help in the control of the disease. Method exploratory, descriptive, prospective study with a quantitative approach. Results a total of 30 patients (75.0%) were diagnosed with kidney failure and the main factors associated with this disease were: advanced age, systemic arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, lung diseases, and antibiotic use. Of these, 23 patients (76.6%) showed a reduction in creatinine clearance in the first 24 hours of hospitalization. Conclusion a decline in renal function was observed in a significant number of subjects, therefore, an algorithm was developed with the aim of helping in the control of renal failure in a practical and functional way. PMID:26107827

Reconstructing genome-wide regulatory network of E. coli using transcriptome data and predicted transcription factor activities

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Gene regulatory networks play essential roles in living organisms to control growth, keep internal metabolism running and respond to external environmental changes. Understanding the connections and the activity levels of regulators is important for the research of gene regulatory networks. While relevance score based algorithms that reconstruct gene regulatory networks from transcriptome data can infer genome-wide gene regulatory networks, they are unfortunately prone to false positive results. Transcription factor activities (TFAs) quantitatively reflect the ability of the transcription factor to regulate target genes. However, classic relevance score based gene regulatory network reconstruction algorithms use models do not include the TFA layer, thus missing a key regulatory element. Results This work integrates TFA prediction algorithms with relevance score based network reconstruction algorithms to reconstruct gene regulatory networks with improved accuracy over classic relevance score based algorithms. This method is called Gene expression and Transcription factor activity based Relevance Network (GTRNetwork). Different combinations of TFA prediction algorithms and relevance score functions have been applied to find the most efficient combination. When the integrated GTRNetwork method was applied to E. coli data, the reconstructed genome-wide gene regulatory network predicted 381 new regulatory links. This reconstructed gene regulatory network including the predicted new regulatory links show promising biological significances. Many of the new links are verified by known TF binding site information, and many other links can be verified from the literature and databases such as EcoCyc. The reconstructed gene regulatory network is applied to a recent transcriptome analysis of E. coli during isobutanol stress. In addition to the 16 significantly changed TFAs detected in the original paper, another 7 significantly changed TFAs have been detected by using our reconstructed network. Conclusions The GTRNetwork algorithm introduces the hidden layer TFA into classic relevance score-based gene regulatory network reconstruction processes. Integrating the TFA biological information with regulatory network reconstruction algorithms significantly improves both detection of new links and reduces that rate of false positives. The application of GTRNetwork on E. coli gene transcriptome data gives a set of potential regulatory links with promising biological significance for isobutanol stress and other conditions. PMID:21668997

Electron beam energy and bunch length feed forward control studies using an artificial neural network at the Linac coherent light source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, E.; Biedron, S. G.; LeBlanc, G.; Morgan, M. J.; Wu, J.

2009-11-01

This paper describes the results of an advanced control algorithm for the stabilization of electron beam energy in a Linac. The approach combines a conventional Proportional-Integral (PI) controller with a neural network (NNET) feed forward algorithm; it utilizes the robustness of PI control and the ability of a feed forward system in order to exert control over a wider range of frequencies. The NNET is trained to recognize jitter occurring in the phase and voltage of one of the klystrons, based on a record of these parameters, and predicts future energy deviations. A systematic approach is developed to determine the optimal NNET parameters that are then applied to the Australian Synchrotron Linac. The system's capability to fully cancel multi-frequency jitter is demonstrated. The NNET system is then augmented with the PI algorithm, and further jitter attenuation is achieved when the NNET is not operating optimally.

Fault tolerant control of multivariable processes using auto-tuning PID controller.

PubMed

Yu, Ding-Li; Chang, T K; Yu, Ding-Wen

2005-02-01

Fault tolerant control of dynamic processes is investigated in this paper using an auto-tuning PID controller. A fault tolerant control scheme is proposed composing an auto-tuning PID controller based on an adaptive neural network model. The model is trained online using the extended Kalman filter (EKF) algorithm to learn system post-fault dynamics. Based on this model, the PID controller adjusts its parameters to compensate the effects of the faults, so that the control performance is recovered from degradation. The auto-tuning algorithm for the PID controller is derived with the Lyapunov method and therefore, the model predicted tracking error is guaranteed to converge asymptotically. The method is applied to a simulated two-input two-output continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) with various faults, which demonstrate the applicability of the developed scheme to industrial processes.

Time-varying delays compensation algorithm for powertrain active damping of an electrified vehicle equipped with an axle motor during regenerative braking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Junzhi; Li, Yutong; Lv, Chen; Gou, Jinfang; Yuan, Ye

2017-03-01

The flexibility of the electrified powertrain system elicits a negative effect upon the cooperative control performance between regenerative and hydraulic braking and the active damping control performance. Meanwhile, the connections among sensors, controllers, and actuators are realized via network communication, i.e., controller area network (CAN), that introduces time-varying delays and deteriorates the control performances of the closed-loop control systems. As such, the goal of this paper is to develop a control algorithm to cope with all these challenges. To this end, the models of the stochastic network induced time-varying delays, based on a real in-vehicle network topology and on a flexible electrified powertrain, were firstly built. In order to further enhance the control performances of active damping and cooperative control of regenerative and hydraulic braking, the time-varying delays compensation algorithm for the electrified powertrain active damping during regenerative braking was developed based on a predictive scheme. The augmented system is constructed and the H∞ performance is analyzed. Based on this analysis, the control gains are derived by solving a nonlinear minimization problem. The simulations and hardware-in-loop (HIL) tests were carried out to validate the effectiveness of the developed algorithm. The test results show that the active damping and cooperative control performances are enhanced significantly.

Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kossobokov, V.G.; Healy, J.H.; Dewey, J.W.

1997-01-01

A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known as M8. The M8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.

Development and evaluation of a data-adaptive alerting algorithm for univariate temporal biosurveillance data.

PubMed

Elbert, Yevgeniy; Burkom, Howard S

2009-11-20

This paper discusses further advances in making robust predictions with the Holt-Winters forecasts for a variety of syndromic time series behaviors and introduces a control-chart detection approach based on these forecasts. Using three collections of time series data, we compare biosurveillance alerting methods with quantified measures of forecast agreement, signal sensitivity, and time-to-detect. The study presents practical rules for initialization and parameterization of biosurveillance time series. Several outbreak scenarios are used for detection comparison. We derive an alerting algorithm from forecasts using Holt-Winters-generalized smoothing for prospective application to daily syndromic time series. The derived algorithm is compared with simple control-chart adaptations and to more computationally intensive regression modeling methods. The comparisons are conducted on background data from both authentic and simulated data streams. Both types of background data include time series that vary widely by both mean value and cyclic or seasonal behavior. Plausible, simulated signals are added to the background data for detection performance testing at signal strengths calculated to be neither too easy nor too hard to separate the compared methods. Results show that both the sensitivity and the timeliness of the Holt-Winters-based algorithm proved to be comparable or superior to that of the more traditional prediction methods used for syndromic surveillance.

Comparison of the accuracy of three algorithms in predicting accessory pathways among adult Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome patients.

PubMed

Maden, Orhan; Balci, Kevser Gülcihan; Selcuk, Mehmet Timur; Balci, Mustafa Mücahit; Açar, Burak; Unal, Sefa; Kara, Meryem; Selcuk, Hatice

2015-12-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of three algorithms in predicting accessory pathway locations in adult patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome in Turkish population. A total of 207 adult patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome were retrospectively analyzed. The most preexcited 12-lead electrocardiogram in sinus rhythm was used for analysis. Two investigators blinded to the patient data used three algorithms for prediction of accessory pathway location. Among all locations, 48.5% were left-sided, 44% were right-sided, and 7.5% were located in the midseptum or anteroseptum. When only exact locations were accepted as match, predictive accuracy for Chiang was 71.5%, 72.4% for d'Avila, and 71.5% for Arruda. The percentage of predictive accuracy of all algorithms did not differ between the algorithms (p = 1.000; p = 0.875; p = 0.885, respectively). The best algorithm for prediction of right-sided, left-sided, and anteroseptal and midseptal accessory pathways was Arruda (p < 0.001). Arruda was significantly better than d'Avila in predicting adjacent sites (p = 0.035) and the percent of the contralateral site prediction was higher with d'Avila than Arruda (p = 0.013). All algorithms were similar in predicting accessory pathway location and the predicted accuracy was lower than previously reported by their authors. However, according to the accessory pathway site, the algorithm designed by Arruda et al. showed better predictions than the other algorithms and using this algorithm may provide advantages before a planned ablation.

Integrated controls design optimization

DOEpatents

Lou, Xinsheng; Neuschaefer, Carl H.

2015-09-01

A control system (207) for optimizing a chemical looping process of a power plant includes an optimizer (420), an income algorithm (230) and a cost algorithm (225) and a chemical looping process models. The process models are used to predict the process outputs from process input variables. Some of the process in puts and output variables are related to the income of the plant; and some others are related to the cost of the plant operations. The income algorithm (230) provides an income input to the optimizer (420) based on a plurality of input parameters (215) of the power plant. The cost algorithm (225) provides a cost input to the optimizer (420) based on a plurality of output parameters (220) of the power plant. The optimizer (420) determines an optimized operating parameter solution based on at least one of the income input and the cost input, and supplies the optimized operating parameter solution to the power plant.

Approximated affine projection algorithm for feedback cancellation in hearing aids.

PubMed

Lee, Sangmin; Kim, In-Young; Park, Young-Cheol

2007-09-01

We propose an approximated affine projection (AP) algorithm for feedback cancellation in hearing aids. It is based on the conventional approach using the Gauss-Seidel (GS) iteration, but provides more stable convergence behaviour even with small step sizes. In the proposed algorithm, a residue of the weighted error vector, instead of the current error sample, is used to provide stable convergence. A new learning rate control scheme is also applied to the proposed algorithm to prevent signal cancellation and system instability. The new scheme determines step size in proportion to the prediction factor of the input, so that adaptation is inhibited whenever tone-like signals are present in the input. Simulation results verified the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

Optimization and real-time control for laser treatment of heterogeneous soft tissues.

PubMed

Feng, Yusheng; Fuentes, David; Hawkins, Andrea; Bass, Jon M; Rylander, Marissa Nichole

2009-01-01

Predicting the outcome of thermotherapies in cancer treatment requires an accurate characterization of the bioheat transfer processes in soft tissues. Due to the biological and structural complexity of tumor (soft tissue) composition and vasculature, it is often very difficult to obtain reliable tissue properties that is one of the key factors for the accurate treatment outcome prediction. Efficient algorithms employing in vivo thermal measurements to determine heterogeneous thermal tissues properties in conjunction with a detailed sensitivity analysis can produce essential information for model development and optimal control. The goals of this paper are to present a general formulation of the bioheat transfer equation for heterogeneous soft tissues, review models and algorithms developed for cell damage, heat shock proteins, and soft tissues with nanoparticle inclusion, and demonstrate an overall computational strategy for developing a laser treatment framework with the ability to perform real-time robust calibrations and optimal control. This computational strategy can be applied to other thermotherapies using the heat source such as radio frequency or high intensity focused ultrasound.

Prediction of Baseflow Index of Catchments using Machine Learning Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, B.; Hatfield, K.

2017-12-01

We present the results of eight machine learning techniques for predicting the baseflow index (BFI) of ungauged basins using a surrogate of catchment scale climate and physiographic data. The tested algorithms include ordinary least squares, ridge regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso), elasticnet, support vector machine, gradient boosted regression trees, random forests, and extremely randomized trees. Our work seeks to identify the dominant controls of BFI that can be readily obtained from ancillary geospatial databases and remote sensing measurements, such that the developed techniques can be extended to ungauged catchments. More than 800 gauged catchments spanning the continental United States were selected to develop the general methodology. The BFI calculation was based on the baseflow separated from daily streamflow hydrograph using HYSEP filter. The surrogate catchment attributes were compiled from multiple sources including digital elevation model, soil, landuse, climate data, other publicly available ancillary and geospatial data. 80% catchments were used to train the ML algorithms, and the remaining 20% of the catchments were used as an independent test set to measure the generalization performance of fitted models. A k-fold cross-validation using exhaustive grid search was used to fit the hyperparameters of each model. Initial model development was based on 19 independent variables, but after variable selection and feature ranking, we generated revised sparse models of BFI prediction that are based on only six catchment attributes. These key predictive variables selected after the careful evaluation of bias-variance tradeoff include average catchment elevation, slope, fraction of sand, permeability, temperature, and precipitation. The most promising algorithms exceeding an accuracy score (r-square) of 0.7 on test data include support vector machine, gradient boosted regression trees, random forests, and extremely randomized trees. Considering both the accuracy and the computational complexity of these algorithms, we identify the extremely randomized trees as the best performing algorithm for BFI prediction in ungauged basins.

Dynamic Modeling, Model-Based Control, and Optimization of Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spivey, Benjamin James

2011-07-01

Solid oxide fuel cells are a promising option for distributed stationary power generation that offers efficiencies ranging from 50% in stand-alone applications to greater than 80% in cogeneration. To advance SOFC technology for widespread market penetration, the SOFC should demonstrate improved cell lifetime and load-following capability. This work seeks to improve lifetime through dynamic analysis of critical lifetime variables and advanced control algorithms that permit load-following while remaining in a safe operating zone based on stress analysis. Control algorithms typically have addressed SOFC lifetime operability objectives using unconstrained, single-input-single-output control algorithms that minimize thermal transients. Existing SOFC controls research has not considered maximum radial thermal gradients or limits on absolute temperatures in the SOFC. In particular, as stress analysis demonstrates, the minimum cell temperature is the primary thermal stress driver in tubular SOFCs. This dissertation presents a dynamic, quasi-two-dimensional model for a high-temperature tubular SOFC combined with ejector and prereformer models. The model captures dynamics of critical thermal stress drivers and is used as the physical plant for closed-loop control simulations. A constrained, MIMO model predictive control algorithm is developed and applied to control the SOFC. Closed-loop control simulation results demonstrate effective load-following, constraint satisfaction for critical lifetime variables, and disturbance rejection. Nonlinear programming is applied to find the optimal SOFC size and steady-state operating conditions to minimize total system costs.

UAV Control on the Basis of 3D Landmark Bearing-Only Observations

PubMed Central

Karpenko, Simon; Konovalenko, Ivan; Miller, Alexander; Miller, Boris; Nikolaev, Dmitry

2015-01-01

The article presents an approach to the control of a UAV on the basis of 3D landmark observations. The novelty of the work is the usage of the 3D RANSAC algorithm developed on the basis of the landmarks’ position prediction with the aid of a modified Kalman-type filter. Modification of the filter based on the pseudo-measurements approach permits obtaining unbiased UAV position estimation with quadratic error characteristics. Modeling of UAV flight on the basis of the suggested algorithm shows good performance, even under significant external perturbations. PMID:26633394

A Risk-based Model Predictive Control Approach to Adaptive Interventions in Behavioral Health

PubMed Central

Zafra-Cabeza, Ascensión; Rivera, Daniel E.; Collins, Linda M.; Ridao, Miguel A.; Camacho, Eduardo F.

2010-01-01

This paper examines how control engineering and risk management techniques can be applied in the field of behavioral health through their use in the design and implementation of adaptive behavioral interventions. Adaptive interventions are gaining increasing acceptance as a means to improve prevention and treatment of chronic, relapsing disorders, such as abuse of alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs, mental illness, and obesity. A risk-based Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm is developed for a hypothetical intervention inspired by Fast Track, a real-life program whose long-term goal is the prevention of conduct disorders in at-risk children. The MPC-based algorithm decides on the appropriate frequency of counselor home visits, mentoring sessions, and the availability of after-school recreation activities by relying on a model that includes identifiable risks, their costs, and the cost/benefit assessment of mitigating actions. MPC is particularly suited for the problem because of its constraint-handling capabilities, and its ability to scale to interventions involving multiple tailoring variables. By systematically accounting for risks and adapting treatment components over time, an MPC approach as described in this paper can increase intervention effectiveness and adherence while reducing waste, resulting in advantages over conventional fixed treatment. A series of simulations are conducted under varying conditions to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm. PMID:21643450

Effect of window length on performance of the elbow-joint angle prediction based on electromyography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Triwiyanto; Wahyunggoro, Oyas; Adi Nugroho, Hanung; Herianto

2017-05-01

The high performance of the elbow joint angle prediction is essential on the development of the devices based on electromyography (EMG) control. The performance of the prediction depends on the feature of extraction parameters such as window length. In this paper, we evaluated the effect of the window length on the performance of the elbow-joint angle prediction. The prediction algorithm consists of zero-crossing feature extraction and second order of Butterworth low pass filter. The feature was used to extract the EMG signal by varying window length. The EMG signal was collected from the biceps muscle while the elbow was moved in the flexion and extension motion. The subject performed the elbow motion by holding a 1-kg load and moved the elbow in different periods (12 seconds, 8 seconds and 6 seconds). The results indicated that the window length affected the performance of the prediction. The 250 window lengths yielded the best performance of the prediction algorithm of (mean±SD) root mean square error = 5.68%±1.53% and Person’s correlation = 0.99±0.0059.

Integrating Predictive Modeling with Control System Design for Managed Aquifer Recharge and Recovery Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drumheller, Z. W.; Regnery, J.; Lee, J. H.; Illangasekare, T. H.; Kitanidis, P. K.; Smits, K. M.

2014-12-01

Aquifers around the world show troubling signs of irreversible depletion and seawater intrusion as climate change, population growth, and urbanization led to reduced natural recharge rates and overuse. Scientists and engineers have begun to re-investigate the technology of managed aquifer recharge and recovery (MAR) as a means to increase the reliability of the diminishing and increasingly variable groundwater supply. MAR systems offer the possibility of naturally increasing groundwater storage while improving the quality of impaired water used for recharge. Unfortunately, MAR systems remain wrought with operational challenges related to the quality and quantity of recharged and recovered water stemming from a lack of data-driven, real-time control. Our project seeks to ease the operational challenges of MAR facilities through the implementation of active sensor networks, adaptively calibrated flow and transport models, and simulation-based meta-heuristic control optimization methods. The developed system works by continually collecting hydraulic and water quality data from a sensor network embedded within the aquifer. The data is fed into an inversion algorithm, which calibrates the parameters and initial conditions of a predictive flow and transport model. The calibrated model is passed to a meta-heuristic control optimization algorithm (e.g. genetic algorithm) to execute the simulations and determine the best course of action, i.e., the optimal pumping policy for current aquifer conditions. The optimal pumping policy is manually or autonomously applied. During operation, sensor data are used to assess the accuracy of the optimal prediction and augment the pumping strategy as needed. At laboratory-scale, a small (18"H x 46"L) and an intermediate (6'H x 16'L) two-dimensional synthetic aquifer were constructed and outfitted with sensor networks. Data collection and model inversion components were developed and sensor data were validated by analytical measurements.

Model predictive control based on reduced order models applied to belt conveyor system.

PubMed

Chen, Wei; Li, Xin

2016-11-01

In the paper, a model predictive controller based on reduced order model is proposed to control belt conveyor system, which is an electro-mechanics complex system with long visco-elastic body. Firstly, in order to design low-degree controller, the balanced truncation method is used for belt conveyor model reduction. Secondly, MPC algorithm based on reduced order model for belt conveyor system is presented. Because of the error bound between the full-order model and reduced order model, two Kalman state estimators are applied in the control scheme to achieve better system performance. Finally, the simulation experiments are shown that balanced truncation method can significantly reduce the model order with high-accuracy and model predictive control based on reduced-model performs well in controlling the belt conveyor system. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of Filling and Afterload Conditions by Pump Intrinsic Parameters in a Pulsatile Total Artificial Heart.

PubMed

Cuenca-Navalon, Elena; Laumen, Marco; Finocchiaro, Thomas; Steinseifer, Ulrich

2016-07-01

A physiological control algorithm is being developed to ensure an optimal physiological interaction between the ReinHeart total artificial heart (TAH) and the circulatory system. A key factor for that is the long-term, accurate determination of the hemodynamic state of the cardiovascular system. This study presents a method to determine estimation models for predicting hemodynamic parameters (pump chamber filling and afterload) from both left and right cardiovascular circulations. The estimation models are based on linear regression models that correlate filling and afterload values with pump intrinsic parameters derived from measured values of motor current and piston position. Predictions for filling lie in average within 5% from actual values, predictions for systemic afterload (AoPmean , AoPsys ) and mean pulmonary afterload (PAPmean ) lie in average within 9% from actual values. Predictions for systolic pulmonary afterload (PAPsys ) present an average deviation of 14%. The estimation models show satisfactory prediction and confidence intervals and are thus suitable to estimate hemodynamic parameters. This method and derived estimation models are a valuable alternative to implanted sensors and are an essential step for the development of a physiological control algorithm for a fully implantable TAH. Copyright © 2015 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Application of higher harmonic blade feathering for helicopter vibration reduction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powers, R. W.

1978-01-01

Higher harmonic blade feathering for helicopter vibration reduction is considered. Recent wind tunnel tests confirmed the effectiveness of higher harmonic control in reducing articulated rotor vibratory hub loads. Several predictive analyses developed in support of the NASA program were shown to be capable of calculating single harmonic control inputs required to minimize a single 4P hub response. In addition, a multiple-input, multiple-output harmonic control predictive analysis was developed. All techniques developed thus far obtain a solution by extracting empirical transfer functions from sampled data. Algorithm data sampling and processing requirements are minimal to encourage adaptive control system application of such techniques in a flight environment.

Experimental Investigations of Generalized Predictive Control for Tiltrotor Stability Augmentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nixon, Mark W.; Langston, Chester W.; Singleton, Jeffrey D.; Piatak, David J.; Kvaternik, Raymond G.; Bennett, Richard L.; Brown, Ross K.

2001-01-01

A team of researchers from the Army Research Laboratory, NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), and Bell Helicopter-Textron, Inc. have completed hover-cell and wind-tunnel testing of a 1/5-size aeroelastically-scaled tiltrotor model using a new active control system for stability augmentation. The active system is based on a generalized predictive control (GPC) algorithm originally developed at NASA LaRC in 1997 for un-known disturbance rejection. Results of these investigations show that GPC combined with an active swashplate can significantly augment the damping and stability of tiltrotors in both hover and high-speed flight.

Dynamic properties of the adaptive optics system depending on the temporary transformations of mirror control voltages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavrinov, V. V.; Lavrinova, L. N.

2017-11-01

The statistically optimal control algorithm for the correcting mirror is formed by constructing a prediction of distortions of the optical signal and improves the time resolution of the adaptive optics system. The prediction of distortions is based on an analysis of the dynamics of changes in the optical inhomogeneities of the turbulent atmosphere or the evolution of phase fluctuations at the input aperture of the adaptive system. Dynamic properties of the system are manifested during the temporary transformation of the stresses controlling the mirror and are determined by the dynamic characteristics of the flexible mirror.

Effects of secondary loudspeaker properties on broadband feedforward active duct noise control.

PubMed

Chan, Yum-Ji; Huang, Lixi; Lam, James

2013-07-01

Dependence of the performance of feedforward active duct noise control on secondary loudspeaker parameters is investigated. Noise reduction performance can be improved if the force factor of the secondary loudspeaker is higher. For example, broadband noise reduction improvement up to 1.6 dB is predicted by increasing the force factor by 50%. In addition, a secondary loudspeaker with a larger force factor was found to have quicker convergence in the adaptive algorithm in experiment. In simulations, noise reduction is improved in using an adaptive algorithm by using a secondary loudspeaker with a heavier moving mass. It is predicted that an extra broadband noise reduction of more than 7 dB can be gained using an adaptive filter if the force factor, moving mass and coil inductance of a commercially available loudspeaker are doubled. Methods to increase the force factor beyond those of commercially available loudspeakers are proposed.

Manual physical balance assistance of therapists during gait training of stroke survivors: characteristics and predicting the timing.

PubMed

Haarman, Juliet A M; Maartens, Erik; van der Kooij, Herman; Buurke, Jaap H; Reenalda, Jasper; Rietman, Johan S

2017-12-02

During gait training, physical therapists continuously supervise stroke survivors and provide physical support to their pelvis when they judge that the patient is unable to keep his balance. This paper is the first in providing quantitative data about the corrective forces that therapists use during gait training. It is assumed that changes in the acceleration of a patient's COM are a good predictor for therapeutic balance assistance during the training sessions Therefore, this paper provides a method that predicts the timing of therapeutic balance assistance, based on acceleration data of the sacrum. Eight sub-acute stroke survivors and seven therapists were included in this study. Patients were asked to perform straight line walking as well as slalom walking in a conventional training setting. Acceleration of the sacrum was captured by an Inertial Magnetic Measurement Unit. Balance-assisting corrective forces applied by the therapist were collected from two force sensors positioned on both sides of the patient's hips. Measures to characterize the therapeutic balance assistance were the amount of force, duration, impulse and the anatomical plane in which the assistance took place. Based on the acceleration data of the sacrum, an algorithm was developed to predict therapeutic balance assistance. To validate the developed algorithm, the predicted events of balance assistance by the algorithm were compared with the actual provided therapeutic assistance. The algorithm was able to predict the actual therapeutic assistance with a Positive Predictive Value of 87% and a True Positive Rate of 81%. Assistance mainly took place over the medio-lateral axis and corrective forces of about 2% of the patient's body weight (15.9 N (11), median (IQR)) were provided by therapists in this plane. Median duration of balance assistance was 1.1 s (0.6) (median (IQR)) and median impulse was 9.4Ns (8.2) (median (IQR)). Although therapists were specifically instructed to aim for the force sensors on the iliac crest, a different contact location was reported in 22% of the corrections. This paper presents insights into the behavior of therapists regarding their manual physical assistance during gait training. A quantitative dataset was presented, representing therapeutic balance-assisting force characteristics. Furthermore, an algorithm was developed that predicts events at which therapeutic balance assistance was provided. Prediction scores remain high when different therapists and patients were analyzed with the same algorithm settings. Both the quantitative dataset and the developed algorithm can serve as technical input in the development of (robot-controlled) balance supportive devices.

PheKB: a catalog and workflow for creating electronic phenotype algorithms for transportability.

PubMed

Kirby, Jacqueline C; Speltz, Peter; Rasmussen, Luke V; Basford, Melissa; Gottesman, Omri; Peissig, Peggy L; Pacheco, Jennifer A; Tromp, Gerard; Pathak, Jyotishman; Carrell, David S; Ellis, Stephen B; Lingren, Todd; Thompson, Will K; Savova, Guergana; Haines, Jonathan; Roden, Dan M; Harris, Paul A; Denny, Joshua C

2016-11-01

Health care generated data have become an important source for clinical and genomic research. Often, investigators create and iteratively refine phenotype algorithms to achieve high positive predictive values (PPVs) or sensitivity, thereby identifying valid cases and controls. These algorithms achieve the greatest utility when validated and shared by multiple health care systems.Materials and Methods We report the current status and impact of the Phenotype KnowledgeBase (PheKB, http://phekb.org), an online environment supporting the workflow of building, sharing, and validating electronic phenotype algorithms. We analyze the most frequent components used in algorithms and their performance at authoring institutions and secondary implementation sites. As of June 2015, PheKB contained 30 finalized phenotype algorithms and 62 algorithms in development spanning a range of traits and diseases. Phenotypes have had over 3500 unique views in a 6-month period and have been reused by other institutions. International Classification of Disease codes were the most frequently used component, followed by medications and natural language processing. Among algorithms with published performance data, the median PPV was nearly identical when evaluated at the authoring institutions (n = 44; case 96.0%, control 100%) compared to implementation sites (n = 40; case 97.5%, control 100%). These results demonstrate that a broad range of algorithms to mine electronic health record data from different health systems can be developed with high PPV, and algorithms developed at one site are generally transportable to others. By providing a central repository, PheKB enables improved development, transportability, and validity of algorithms for research-grade phenotypes using health care generated data. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

PheKB: a catalog and workflow for creating electronic phenotype algorithms for transportability

PubMed Central

Kirby, Jacqueline C; Speltz, Peter; Rasmussen, Luke V; Basford, Melissa; Gottesman, Omri; Peissig, Peggy L; Pacheco, Jennifer A; Tromp, Gerard; Pathak, Jyotishman; Carrell, David S; Ellis, Stephen B; Lingren, Todd; Thompson, Will K; Savova, Guergana; Haines, Jonathan; Roden, Dan M; Harris, Paul A

2016-01-01

Objective Health care generated data have become an important source for clinical and genomic research. Often, investigators create and iteratively refine phenotype algorithms to achieve high positive predictive values (PPVs) or sensitivity, thereby identifying valid cases and controls. These algorithms achieve the greatest utility when validated and shared by multiple health care systems. Materials and Methods We report the current status and impact of the Phenotype KnowledgeBase (PheKB, http://phekb.org), an online environment supporting the workflow of building, sharing, and validating electronic phenotype algorithms. We analyze the most frequent components used in algorithms and their performance at authoring institutions and secondary implementation sites. Results As of June 2015, PheKB contained 30 finalized phenotype algorithms and 62 algorithms in development spanning a range of traits and diseases. Phenotypes have had over 3500 unique views in a 6-month period and have been reused by other institutions. International Classification of Disease codes were the most frequently used component, followed by medications and natural language processing. Among algorithms with published performance data, the median PPV was nearly identical when evaluated at the authoring institutions (n = 44; case 96.0%, control 100%) compared to implementation sites (n = 40; case 97.5%, control 100%). Discussion These results demonstrate that a broad range of algorithms to mine electronic health record data from different health systems can be developed with high PPV, and algorithms developed at one site are generally transportable to others. Conclusion By providing a central repository, PheKB enables improved development, transportability, and validity of algorithms for research-grade phenotypes using health care generated data. PMID:27026615

A Feature and Algorithm Selection Method for Improving the Prediction of Protein Structural Class.

PubMed

Ni, Qianwu; Chen, Lei

2017-01-01

Correct prediction of protein structural class is beneficial to investigation on protein functions, regulations and interactions. In recent years, several computational methods have been proposed in this regard. However, based on various features, it is still a great challenge to select proper classification algorithm and extract essential features to participate in classification. In this study, a feature and algorithm selection method was presented for improving the accuracy of protein structural class prediction. The amino acid compositions and physiochemical features were adopted to represent features and thirty-eight machine learning algorithms collected in Weka were employed. All features were first analyzed by a feature selection method, minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR), producing a feature list. Then, several feature sets were constructed by adding features in the list one by one. For each feature set, thirtyeight algorithms were executed on a dataset, in which proteins were represented by features in the set. The predicted classes yielded by these algorithms and true class of each protein were collected to construct a dataset, which were analyzed by mRMR method, yielding an algorithm list. From the algorithm list, the algorithm was taken one by one to build an ensemble prediction model. Finally, we selected the ensemble prediction model with the best performance as the optimal ensemble prediction model. Experimental results indicate that the constructed model is much superior to models using single algorithm and other models that only adopt feature selection procedure or algorithm selection procedure. The feature selection procedure or algorithm selection procedure are really helpful for building an ensemble prediction model that can yield a better performance. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Genome analysis of Legionella pneumophila strains using a mixed-genome microarray.

PubMed

Euser, Sjoerd M; Nagelkerke, Nico J; Schuren, Frank; Jansen, Ruud; Den Boer, Jeroen W

2012-01-01

Legionella, the causative agent for Legionnaires' disease, is ubiquitous in both natural and man-made aquatic environments. The distribution of Legionella genotypes within clinical strains is significantly different from that found in environmental strains. Developing novel genotypic methods that offer the ability to distinguish clinical from environmental strains could help to focus on more relevant (virulent) Legionella species in control efforts. Mixed-genome microarray data can be used to perform a comparative-genome analysis of strain collections, and advanced statistical approaches, such as the Random Forest algorithm are available to process these data. Microarray analysis was performed on a collection of 222 Legionella pneumophila strains, which included patient-derived strains from notified cases in The Netherlands in the period 2002-2006 and the environmental strains that were collected during the source investigation for those patients within the Dutch National Legionella Outbreak Detection Programme. The Random Forest algorithm combined with a logistic regression model was used to select predictive markers and to construct a predictive model that could discriminate between strains from different origin: clinical or environmental. Four genetic markers were selected that correctly predicted 96% of the clinical strains and 66% of the environmental strains collected within the Dutch National Legionella Outbreak Detection Programme. The Random Forest algorithm is well suited for the development of prediction models that use mixed-genome microarray data to discriminate between Legionella strains from different origin. The identification of these predictive genetic markers could offer the possibility to identify virulence factors within the Legionella genome, which in the future may be implemented in the daily practice of controlling Legionella in the public health environment.

Robust prediction of consensus secondary structures using averaged base pairing probability matrices.

PubMed

Kiryu, Hisanori; Kin, Taishin; Asai, Kiyoshi

2007-02-15

Recent transcriptomic studies have revealed the existence of a considerable number of non-protein-coding RNA transcripts in higher eukaryotic cells. To investigate the functional roles of these transcripts, it is of great interest to find conserved secondary structures from multiple alignments on a genomic scale. Since multiple alignments are often created using alignment programs that neglect the special conservation patterns of RNA secondary structures for computational efficiency, alignment failures can cause potential risks of overlooking conserved stem structures. We investigated the dependence of the accuracy of secondary structure prediction on the quality of alignments. We compared three algorithms that maximize the expected accuracy of secondary structures as well as other frequently used algorithms. We found that one of our algorithms, called McCaskill-MEA, was more robust against alignment failures than others. The McCaskill-MEA method first computes the base pairing probability matrices for all the sequences in the alignment and then obtains the base pairing probability matrix of the alignment by averaging over these matrices. The consensus secondary structure is predicted from this matrix such that the expected accuracy of the prediction is maximized. We show that the McCaskill-MEA method performs better than other methods, particularly when the alignment quality is low and when the alignment consists of many sequences. Our model has a parameter that controls the sensitivity and specificity of predictions. We discussed the uses of that parameter for multi-step screening procedures to search for conserved secondary structures and for assigning confidence values to the predicted base pairs. The C++ source code that implements the McCaskill-MEA algorithm and the test dataset used in this paper are available at http://www.ncrna.org/papers/McCaskillMEA/. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Numerical prediction on the dispersion of pollutant particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osman, Kahar; Ali, Zairi; Ubaidullah, S.; Zahid, M. N.

2012-06-01

The increasing concern on air pollution has led people around the world to find more efficient ways to control the problem. Air dispersion modeling is proven to be one of the alternatives that provide economical ways to control the growing threat of air pollution. The objective of this research is to develop a practical numerical algorithm to predict the dispersion of pollutant particles around a specific source of emission. The source selected was a rubber wood manufacturing plant. Gaussian-plume model were used as air dispersion model due to its simplicity and generic application. Results of this study show the concentrations of the pollutant particles on ground level reached approximately 90μg/m3, compared with other software. This value surpasses the limit of 50μg/m3 stipulated by the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) and Recommended Malaysian Guidelines (RMG) set by Environment Department of Malaysia. The results also show high concentration of pollutant particles reading during dru seasons as compared to that of rainy seasons. In general, the developed algorithm is proven to be able to predict particles distribution around emitted source with acceptable accuracy.

Evaluation of several state-of-charge algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espinosa, J. M.; Martin, M. E.; Burke, A. F.

1988-09-01

One of the important needs in marketing an electric vehicle is a device which reliably indicates battery state-of-charge for all types of driving. The purpose of the state-of-charge indicator is analogous to a gas gauge in an internal combustion engine powered vehicle. Many different approaches have been tried to accurately predict battery state-of-charge. This report evaluates several of these approaches. Four different algorithms were implemented into software on an IBM PC and tested using a battery test database for ALCO 2200 lead-acid batteries generated at the INEL. The database was obtained under controlled conditions which compare with the battery response in real EV use. Each algorithm is described in detail as to theory and operational functionality. Also discussed is the hardware and data requirements particular to implementing the individual algorithms. The algorithms were evaluated for accuracy using constant power, stepped power, and simulated vehicle (SFUDS79) discharge profiles. Attempts were made to explain the cause of differences between the predicted and actual state-of-charge and to provide possible remedies to correct them. Recommendations for future work on battery state-of-charge indicators are presented that utilize the hardware and software now in place in the INEL Battery Laboratory.

Application of XGBoost algorithm in hourly PM2.5 concentration prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Bingyue

2018-02-01

In view of prediction techniques of hourly PM2.5 concentration in China, this paper applied the XGBoost(Extreme Gradient Boosting) algorithm to predict hourly PM2.5 concentration. The monitoring data of air quality in Tianjin city was analyzed by using XGBoost algorithm. The prediction performance of the XGBoost method is evaluated by comparing observed and predicted PM2.5 concentration using three measures of forecast accuracy. The XGBoost method is also compared with the random forest algorithm, multiple linear regression, decision tree regression and support vector machines for regression models using computational results. The results demonstrate that the XGBoost algorithm outperforms other data mining methods.

Development and Evaluation of a Mobile Personalized Blood Glucose Prediction System for Patients With Gestational Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Pustozerov, Evgenii; Popova, Polina; Tkachuk, Aleksandra; Bolotko, Yana; Yuldashev, Zafar; Grineva, Elena

2018-01-09

Personalized blood glucose (BG) prediction for diabetes patients is an important goal that is pursued by many researchers worldwide. Despite many proposals, only a few projects are dedicated to the development of complete recommender system infrastructures that incorporate BG prediction algorithms for diabetes patients. The development and implementation of such a system aided by mobile technology is of particular interest to patients with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), especially considering the significant importance of quickly achieving adequate BG control for these patients in a short period (ie, during pregnancy) and a typically higher acceptance rate for mobile health (mHealth) solutions for short- to midterm usage. This study was conducted with the objective of developing infrastructure comprising data processing algorithms, BG prediction models, and an appropriate mobile app for patients' electronic record management to guide BG prediction-based personalized recommendations for patients with GDM. A mobile app for electronic diary management was developed along with data exchange and continuous BG signal processing software. Both components were coupled to obtain the necessary data for use in the personalized BG prediction system. Necessary data on meals, BG measurements, and other events were collected via the implemented mobile app and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system processing software. These data were used to tune and evaluate the BG prediction model, which included an algorithm for dynamic coefficients tuning. In the clinical study, 62 participants (GDM: n=49; control: n=13) took part in a 1-week monitoring trial during which they used the mobile app to track their meals and self-measurements of BG and CGM system for continuous BG monitoring. The data on 909 food intakes and corresponding postprandial BG curves as well as the set of patients' characteristics (eg, glycated hemoglobin, body mass index [BMI], age, and lifestyle parameters) were selected as inputs for the BG prediction models. The prediction results by the models for BG levels 1 hour after food intake were root mean square error=0.87 mmol/L, mean absolute error=0.69 mmol/L, and mean absolute percentage error=12.8%, which correspond to an adequate prediction accuracy for BG control decisions. The mobile app for the collection and processing of relevant data, appropriate software for CGM system signals processing, and BG prediction models were developed for a recommender system. The developed system may help improve BG control in patients with GDM; this will be the subject of evaluation in a subsequent study. ©Evgenii Pustozerov, Polina Popova, Aleksandra Tkachuk, Yana Bolotko, Zafar Yuldashev, Elena Grineva. Originally published in JMIR Mhealth and Uhealth (http://mhealth.jmir.org), 09.01.2018.

Sequential reconstruction of driving-forces from nonlinear nonstationary dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Güntürkün, Ulaş

2010-07-01

This paper describes a functional analysis-based method for the estimation of driving-forces from nonlinear dynamic systems. The driving-forces account for the perturbation inputs induced by the external environment or the secular variations in the internal variables of the system. The proposed algorithm is applicable to the problems for which there is too little or no prior knowledge to build a rigorous mathematical model of the unknown dynamics. We derive the estimator conditioned on the differentiability of the unknown system’s mapping, and smoothness of the driving-force. The proposed algorithm is an adaptive sequential realization of the blind prediction error method, where the basic idea is to predict the observables, and retrieve the driving-force from the prediction error. Our realization of this idea is embodied by predicting the observables one-step into the future using a bank of echo state networks (ESN) in an online fashion, and then extracting the raw estimates from the prediction error and smoothing these estimates in two adaptive filtering stages. The adaptive nature of the algorithm enables to retrieve both slowly and rapidly varying driving-forces accurately, which are illustrated by simulations. Logistic and Moran-Ricker maps are studied in controlled experiments, exemplifying chaotic state and stochastic measurement models. The algorithm is also applied to the estimation of a driving-force from another nonlinear dynamic system that is stochastic in both state and measurement equations. The results are judged by the posterior Cramer-Rao lower bounds. The method is finally put into test on a real-world application; extracting sun’s magnetic flux from the sunspot time series.

An Improved Formulation of Hybrid Model Predictive Control With Application to Production-Inventory Systems.

PubMed

Nandola, Naresh N; Rivera, Daniel E

2013-01-01

We consider an improved model predictive control (MPC) formulation for linear hybrid systems described by mixed logical dynamical (MLD) models. The algorithm relies on a multiple-degree-of-freedom parametrization that enables the user to adjust the speed of setpoint tracking, measured disturbance rejection and unmeasured disturbance rejection independently in the closed-loop system. Consequently, controller tuning is more flexible and intuitive than relying on objective function weights (such as move suppression) traditionally used in MPC schemes. The controller formulation is motivated by the needs of non-traditional control applications that are suitably described by hybrid production-inventory systems. Two applications are considered in this paper: adaptive, time-varying interventions in behavioral health, and inventory management in supply chains under conditions of limited capacity. In the adaptive intervention application, a hypothetical intervention inspired by the Fast Track program, a real-life preventive intervention for reducing conduct disorder in at-risk children, is examined. In the inventory management application, the ability of the algorithm to judiciously alter production capacity under conditions of varying demand is presented. These case studies demonstrate that MPC for hybrid systems can be tuned for desired performance under demanding conditions involving noise and uncertainty.

An Improved Formulation of Hybrid Model Predictive Control With Application to Production-Inventory Systems

PubMed Central

Nandola, Naresh N.; Rivera, Daniel E.

2013-01-01

We consider an improved model predictive control (MPC) formulation for linear hybrid systems described by mixed logical dynamical (MLD) models. The algorithm relies on a multiple-degree-of-freedom parametrization that enables the user to adjust the speed of setpoint tracking, measured disturbance rejection and unmeasured disturbance rejection independently in the closed-loop system. Consequently, controller tuning is more flexible and intuitive than relying on objective function weights (such as move suppression) traditionally used in MPC schemes. The controller formulation is motivated by the needs of non-traditional control applications that are suitably described by hybrid production-inventory systems. Two applications are considered in this paper: adaptive, time-varying interventions in behavioral health, and inventory management in supply chains under conditions of limited capacity. In the adaptive intervention application, a hypothetical intervention inspired by the Fast Track program, a real-life preventive intervention for reducing conduct disorder in at-risk children, is examined. In the inventory management application, the ability of the algorithm to judiciously alter production capacity under conditions of varying demand is presented. These case studies demonstrate that MPC for hybrid systems can be tuned for desired performance under demanding conditions involving noise and uncertainty. PMID:24348004

Comparison of simulator fidelity model predictions with in-simulator evaluation data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parrish, R. V.; Mckissick, B. T.; Ashworth, B. R.

1983-01-01

A full factorial in simulator experiment of a single axis, multiloop, compensatory pitch tracking task is described. The experiment was conducted to provide data to validate extensions to an analytic, closed loop model of a real time digital simulation facility. The results of the experiment encompassing various simulation fidelity factors, such as visual delay, digital integration algorithms, computer iteration rates, control loading bandwidths and proprioceptive cues, and g-seat kinesthetic cues, are compared with predictions obtained from the analytic model incorporating an optimal control model of the human pilot. The in-simulator results demonstrate more sensitivity to the g-seat and to the control loader conditions than were predicted by the model. However, the model predictions are generally upheld, although the predicted magnitudes of the states and of the error terms are sometimes off considerably. Of particular concern is the large sensitivity difference for one control loader condition, as well as the model/in-simulator mismatch in the magnitude of the plant states when the other states match.

Adaptive Guidance and Control Algorithms applied to the X-38 Reentry Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graesslin, M.; Wallner, E.; Burkhardt, J.; Schoettle, U.; Well, K. H.

International Space Station's Crew Return/Rescue Vehicle (CRV) is planned to autonomously return the complete crew of 7 astronauts back to earth in case of an emergency. As prototype of such a vehicle, the X-38, is being developed and built by NASA with European participation. The X-38 is a lifting body with a hyper- sonic lift to drag ratio of about 0.9. In comparison to the Space Shuttle Orbiter, the X-38 has less aerodynamic manoeuvring capability and less actuators. Within the German technology programme TETRA (TEchnologies for future space TRAnsportation systems) contributing to the X-38 program, guidance and control algorithms have been developed and applied to the X-38 reentry mission. The adaptive guidance concept conceived combines an on-board closed-loop predictive guidance algorithm with flight load control that temporarily overrides the attitude commands of the predictive component if the corre- sponding load constraints are violated. The predictive guidance scheme combines an optimization step and a sequence of constraint restoration cycles. In order to satisfy on-board computation limitations the complete scheme is performed only during the exo-atmospheric flight coast phase. During the controlled atmospheric flight segment the task is reduced to a repeatedly solved targeting problem based on the initial optimal solution, thus omitting in-flight constraints. To keep the flight loads - especially the heat flux, which is in fact a major concern of the X-38 reentry flight - below their maximum admissible values, a flight path controller based on quadratic minimization techniques may override the predictive guidance command for a flight along the con- straint boundary. The attitude control algorithms developed are based on dynamic inversion. This methodology enables the designer to straightforwardly devise a controller structure from the system dynamics. The main ad- vantage of this approach with regard to reentry control design lies in the fact that inversion renders a scheduled controller. Throughout the reentry, varying sets of actuators are available for control. Depending on which set is available, different inversion schemes are applied. With at least three controls effectors, decoupled control of the attitude angles can be achieved via a successive inversion which exploits the time-scale separation inherent in the attitude dynamics. However, during a flight phase where control needs to be achieved with only two body flaps, internal dynamics must be taken into account. To this end, a redefinition of the controlled variables is carried out so that the internal dynamics are stabilized while satisfactory tracking performance is achieved. The objectives of the present paper are to discuss the guidance and control approach taken, and asses the per- formance of the concepts by numerical flight simulations. For this purpose results obtained by means of a nu- merical flight simulator (CREDITS), that accurately models the characteristics of the X-38 vehicle, are presented to demonstrate the performance and effectiveness of the guidance and control design. Sensitivities to non- nominal flight conditions have been evaluated by Monte-Carlo analyses comprising motion simulations in both three and six degree of freedom. The results show that the mission requirements are met.

A Wavelet Neural Network Optimal Control Model for Traffic-Flow Prediction in Intelligent Transport Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Darong; Bai, Xing-Rong

Based on wavelet transform and neural network theory, a traffic-flow prediction model, which was used in optimal control of Intelligent Traffic system, is constructed. First of all, we have extracted the scale coefficient and wavelet coefficient from the online measured raw data of traffic flow via wavelet transform; Secondly, an Artificial Neural Network model of Traffic-flow Prediction was constructed and trained using the coefficient sequences as inputs and raw data as outputs; Simultaneous, we have designed the running principium of the optimal control system of traffic-flow Forecasting model, the network topological structure and the data transmitted model; Finally, a simulated example has shown that the technique is effectively and exactly. The theoretical results indicated that the wavelet neural network prediction model and algorithms have a broad prospect for practical application.

Performance of Optimized Actuator and Sensor Arrays in an Active Noise Control System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palumbo, D. L.; Padula, S. L.; Lyle, K. H.; Cline, J. H.; Cabell, R. H.

1996-01-01

Experiments have been conducted in NASA Langley's Acoustics and Dynamics Laboratory to determine the effectiveness of optimized actuator/sensor architectures and controller algorithms for active control of harmonic interior noise. Tests were conducted in a large scale fuselage model - a composite cylinder which simulates a commuter class aircraft fuselage with three sections of trim panel and a floor. Using an optimization technique based on the component transfer functions, combinations of 4 out of 8 piezoceramic actuators and 8 out of 462 microphone locations were evaluated against predicted performance. A combinatorial optimization technique called tabu search was employed to select the optimum transducer arrays. Three test frequencies represent the cases of a strong acoustic and strong structural response, a weak acoustic and strong structural response and a strong acoustic and weak structural response. Noise reduction was obtained using a Time Averaged/Gradient Descent (TAGD) controller. Results indicate that the optimization technique successfully predicted best and worst case performance. An enhancement of the TAGD control algorithm was also evaluated. The principal components of the actuator/sensor transfer functions were used in the PC-TAGD controller. The principal components are shown to be independent of each other while providing control as effective as the standard TAGD.

Learning Instance-Specific Predictive Models

PubMed Central

Visweswaran, Shyam; Cooper, Gregory F.

2013-01-01

This paper introduces a Bayesian algorithm for constructing predictive models from data that are optimized to predict a target variable well for a particular instance. This algorithm learns Markov blanket models, carries out Bayesian model averaging over a set of models to predict a target variable of the instance at hand, and employs an instance-specific heuristic to locate a set of suitable models to average over. We call this method the instance-specific Markov blanket (ISMB) algorithm. The ISMB algorithm was evaluated on 21 UCI data sets using five different performance measures and its performance was compared to that of several commonly used predictive algorithms, including nave Bayes, C4.5 decision tree, logistic regression, neural networks, k-Nearest Neighbor, Lazy Bayesian Rules, and AdaBoost. Over all the data sets, the ISMB algorithm performed better on average on all performance measures against all the comparison algorithms. PMID:25045325

A neural network based implementation of an MPC algorithm applied in the control systems of electromechanical plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marusak, Piotr M.; Kuntanapreeda, Suwat

2018-01-01

The paper considers application of a neural network based implementation of a model predictive control (MPC) control algorithm to electromechanical plants. Properties of such control plants implicate that a relatively short sampling time should be used. However, in such a case, finding the control value numerically may be too time-consuming. Therefore, the current paper tests the solution based on transforming the MPC optimization problem into a set of differential equations whose solution is the same as that of the original optimization problem. This set of differential equations can be interpreted as a dynamic neural network. In such an approach, the constraints can be introduced into the optimization problem with relative ease. Moreover, the solution of the optimization problem can be obtained faster than when the standard numerical quadratic programming routine is used. However, a very careful tuning of the algorithm is needed to achieve this. A DC motor and an electrohydraulic actuator are taken as illustrative examples. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach are demonstrated through numerical simulations.

Predicting fruit fly's sensing rate with insect flight simulations.

PubMed

Chang, Song; Wang, Z Jane

2014-08-05

Without sensory feedback, flies cannot fly. Exactly how various feedback controls work in insects is a complex puzzle to solve. What do insects measure to stabilize their flight? How often and how fast must insects adjust their wings to remain stable? To gain insights into algorithms used by insects to control their dynamic instability, we develop a simulation tool to study free flight. To stabilize flight, we construct a control algorithm that modulates wing motion based on discrete measurements of the body-pitch orientation. Our simulations give theoretical bounds on both the sensing rate and the delay time between sensing and actuation. Interpreting our findings together with experimental results on fruit flies' reaction time and sensory motor reflexes, we conjecture that fruit flies sense their kinematic states every wing beat to stabilize their flight. We further propose a candidate for such a control involving the fly's haltere and first basalar motor neuron. Although we focus on fruit flies as a case study, the framework for our simulation and discrete control algorithms is applicable to studies of both natural and man-made fliers.

An Evolutionary Algorithm for Feature Subset Selection in Hard Disk Drive Failure Prediction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bhasin, Harpreet

2011-01-01

Hard disk drives are used in everyday life to store critical data. Although they are reliable, failure of a hard disk drive can be catastrophic, especially in applications like medicine, banking, air traffic control systems, missile guidance systems, computer numerical controlled machines, and more. The use of Self-Monitoring, Analysis and…

A High Performance Cloud-Based Protein-Ligand Docking Prediction Algorithm

PubMed Central

Chen, Jui-Le; Yang, Chu-Sing

2013-01-01

The potential of predicting druggability for a particular disease by integrating biological and computer science technologies has witnessed success in recent years. Although the computer science technologies can be used to reduce the costs of the pharmaceutical research, the computation time of the structure-based protein-ligand docking prediction is still unsatisfied until now. Hence, in this paper, a novel docking prediction algorithm, named fast cloud-based protein-ligand docking prediction algorithm (FCPLDPA), is presented to accelerate the docking prediction algorithm. The proposed algorithm works by leveraging two high-performance operators: (1) the novel migration (information exchange) operator is designed specially for cloud-based environments to reduce the computation time; (2) the efficient operator is aimed at filtering out the worst search directions. Our simulation results illustrate that the proposed method outperforms the other docking algorithms compared in this paper in terms of both the computation time and the quality of the end result. PMID:23762864

A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8

USGS Publications Warehouse

Healy, John H.; Kossobokov, Vladimir G.; Dewey, James W.

1992-01-01

A test of the algorithm M8 is described. The test is constructed to meet four rules, which we propose to be applicable to the test of any method for earthquake prediction:  1. An earthquake prediction technique should be presented as a well documented, logical algorithm that can be used by  investigators without restrictions. 2. The algorithm should be coded in a common programming language and implementable on widely available computer systems. 3. A test of the earthquake prediction technique should involve future predictions with a black box version of the algorithm in which potentially adjustable parameters are fixed in advance. The source of the input data must be defined and ambiguities in these data must be resolved automatically by the algorithm. 4. At least one reasonable null hypothesis should be stated in advance of testing the earthquake prediction method, and it should be stated how this null hypothesis will be used to estimate the statistical significance of the earthquake predictions. The M8 algorithm has successfully predicted several destructive earthquakes, in the sense that the earthquakes occurred inside regions with linear dimensions from 384 to 854 km that the algorithm had identified as being in times of increased probability for strong earthquakes. In addition, M8 has successfully "post predicted" high percentages of strong earthquakes in regions to which it has been applied in retroactive studies. The statistical significance of previous predictions has not been established, however, and post-prediction studies in general are notoriously subject to success-enhancement through hindsight. Nor has it been determined how much more precise an M8 prediction might be than forecasts and probability-of-occurrence estimates made by other techniques. We view our test of M8 both as a means to better determine the effectiveness of M8 and as an experimental structure within which to make observations that might lead to improvements in the algorithm or conceivably lead to a radically different approach to earthquake prediction.

A traveling salesman approach for predicting protein functions.

PubMed

Johnson, Olin; Liu, Jing

2006-10-12

Protein-protein interaction information can be used to predict unknown protein functions and to help study biological pathways. Here we present a new approach utilizing the classic Traveling Salesman Problem to study the protein-protein interactions and to predict protein functions in budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We apply the global optimization tool from combinatorial optimization algorithms to cluster the yeast proteins based on the global protein interaction information. We then use this clustering information to help us predict protein functions. We use our algorithm together with the direct neighbor algorithm 1 on characterized proteins and compare the prediction accuracy of the two methods. We show our algorithm can produce better predictions than the direct neighbor algorithm, which only considers the immediate neighbors of the query protein. Our method is a promising one to be used as a general tool to predict functions of uncharacterized proteins and a successful sample of using computer science knowledge and algorithms to study biological problems.

A traveling salesman approach for predicting protein functions

PubMed Central

Johnson, Olin; Liu, Jing

2006-01-01

Background Protein-protein interaction information can be used to predict unknown protein functions and to help study biological pathways. Results Here we present a new approach utilizing the classic Traveling Salesman Problem to study the protein-protein interactions and to predict protein functions in budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We apply the global optimization tool from combinatorial optimization algorithms to cluster the yeast proteins based on the global protein interaction information. We then use this clustering information to help us predict protein functions. We use our algorithm together with the direct neighbor algorithm [1] on characterized proteins and compare the prediction accuracy of the two methods. We show our algorithm can produce better predictions than the direct neighbor algorithm, which only considers the immediate neighbors of the query protein. Conclusion Our method is a promising one to be used as a general tool to predict functions of uncharacterized proteins and a successful sample of using computer science knowledge and algorithms to study biological problems. PMID:17147783

Method of managing interference during delay recovery on a train system

DOEpatents

Gordon, Susanna P.; Evans, John A.

2005-12-27

The present invention provides methods for preventing low train voltages and managing interference, thereby improving the efficiency, reliability, and passenger comfort associated with commuter trains. An algorithm implementing neural network technology is used to predict low voltages before they occur. Once voltages are predicted, then multiple trains can be controlled to prevent low voltage events. Further, algorithms for managing inference are presented in the present invention. Different types of interference problems are addressed in the present invention such as "Interference During Acceleration", "Interference Near Station Stops", and "Interference During Delay Recovery." Managing such interference avoids unnecessary brake/acceleration cycles during acceleration, immediately before station stops, and after substantial delays. Algorithms are demonstrated to avoid oscillatory brake/acceleration cycles due to interference and to smooth the trajectories of closely following trains. This is achieved by maintaining sufficient following distances to avoid unnecessary braking/accelerating. These methods generate smooth train trajectories, making for a more comfortable ride, and improve train motor reliability by avoiding unnecessary mode-changes between propulsion and braking. These algorithms can also have a favorable impact on traction power system requirements and energy consumption.

Efficient high density train operations

DOEpatents

Gordon, Susanna P.; Evans, John A.

2001-01-01

The present invention provides methods for preventing low train voltages and managing interference, thereby improving the efficiency, reliability, and passenger comfort associated with commuter trains. An algorithm implementing neural network technology is used to predict low voltages before they occur. Once voltages are predicted, then multiple trains can be controlled to prevent low voltage events. Further, algorithms for managing inference are presented in the present invention. Different types of interference problems are addressed in the present invention such as "Interference. During Acceleration", "Interference Near Station Stops", and "Interference During Delay Recovery." Managing such interference avoids unnecessary brake/acceleration cycles during acceleration, immediately before station stops, and after substantial delays. Algorithms are demonstrated to avoid oscillatory brake/acceleration cycles due to interference and to smooth the trajectories of closely following trains. This is achieved by maintaining sufficient following distances to avoid unnecessary braking/accelerating. These methods generate smooth train trajectories, making for a more comfortable ride, and improve train motor reliability by avoiding unnecessary mode-changes between propulsion and braking. These algorithms can also have a favorable impact on traction power system requirements and energy consumption.

External validation of the international risk prediction algorithm for major depressive episode in the US general population: the PredictD-US study.

PubMed

Nigatu, Yeshambel T; Liu, Yan; Wang, JianLi

2016-07-22

Multivariable risk prediction algorithms are useful for making clinical decisions and for health planning. While prediction algorithms for new onset of major depression in the primary care attendees in Europe and elsewhere have been developed, the performance of these algorithms in different populations is not known. The objective of this study was to validate the PredictD algorithm for new onset of major depressive episode (MDE) in the US general population. Longitudinal study design was conducted with approximate 3-year follow-up data from a nationally representative sample of the US general population. A total of 29,621 individuals who participated in Wave 1 and 2 of the US National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) and who did not have an MDE in the past year at Wave 1 were included. The PredictD algorithm was directly applied to the selected participants. MDE was assessed by the Alcohol Use Disorder and Associated Disabilities Interview Schedule, based on the DSM-IV criteria. Among the participants, 8 % developed an MDE over three years. The PredictD algorithm had acceptable discriminative power (C-statistics = 0.708, 95 % CI: 0.696, 0.720), but poor calibration (p < 0.001) with the NESARC data. In the European primary care attendees, the algorithm had a C-statistics of 0.790 (95 % CI: 0.767, 0.813) with a perfect calibration. The PredictD algorithm has acceptable discrimination, but the calibration capacity was poor in the US general population despite of re-calibration. Therefore, based on the results, at current stage, the use of PredictD in the US general population for predicting individual risk of MDE is not encouraged. More independent validation research is needed.

Operational warning of interplanetary shock arrivals using energetic particle data from ACE: Real-time Upstream Monitoring System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donegan, M.; Vandegriff, J.; Ho, G. C.; Julia, S. J.

2004-12-01

We report on an operational system which provides advance warning and predictions of arrival times at Earth of interplanetary (IP) shocks that originate at the Sun. The data stream used in our prediction algorithm is real-time and comes from the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument on NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Since locally accelerated energetic storm particle (ESP) events accompany most IP shocks, their arrival can be predicted using ESP event signatures. We have previously reported on the development and implementation of an algorithm which recognizes the upstream particle signature of approaching IP shocks and provides estimated countdown predictions. A web-based system (see (http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RISP/index.html) combines this prediction capability with real-time ACE/EPAM data provided by the NOAA Space Environment Center. The most recent ACE data is continually processed and predictions of shock arrival time are updated every five minutes when an event is impending. An operational display is provided to indicate advisories and countdowns for the event. Running the algorithm on a test set of historical events, we obtain a median error of about 10 hours for predictions made 24-36 hours before actual shock arrival and about 6 hours when the shock is 6-12 hours away. This system can provide critical information to mission planners, satellite operations controllers, and scientists by providing significant lead-time for approaching events. Recently, we have made improvements to the triggering mechanism as well as re-training the neural network, and here we report prediction results from the latest system.

Central safety factor and β N control on NSTX-U via beam power and plasma boundary shape modification, using TRANSP for closed loop simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boyer, M. D.; Andre, R.; Gates, D. A.

The high-performance operational goals of NSTX-U will require development of advanced feedback control algorithms, including control of ßN and the safety factor profile. In this work, a novel approach to simultaneously controlling ßN and the value of the safety factor on the magnetic axis, q0, through manipulation of the plasma boundary shape and total beam power, is proposed. Simulations of the proposed scheme show promising results and motivate future experimental implementation and eventual integration into a more complex current profile control scheme planned to include actuation of individual beam powers, density, and loop voltage. As part of this work, amore » flexible framework for closed loop simulations within the high-fidelity code TRANSP was developed. The framework, used here to identify control-design-oriented models and to tune and test the proposed controller, exploits many of the predictive capabilities of TRANSP and provides a means for performing control calculations based on user-supplied data (controller matrices, target waveforms, etc.). The flexible framework should enable high-fidelity testing of a variety of control algorithms, thereby reducing the amount of expensive experimental time needed to implement new control algorithms on NSTX-U and other devices.« less

Central safety factor and βN control on NSTX-U via beam power and plasma boundary shape modification, using TRANSP for closed loop simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyer, M. D.; Andre, R.; Gates, D. A.; Gerhardt, S.; Goumiri, I. R.; Menard, J.

2015-05-01

The high-performance operational goals of NSTX-U will require development of advanced feedback control algorithms, including control of βN and the safety factor profile. In this work, a novel approach to simultaneously controlling βN and the value of the safety factor on the magnetic axis, q0, through manipulation of the plasma boundary shape and total beam power, is proposed. Simulations of the proposed scheme show promising results and motivate future experimental implementation and eventual integration into a more complex current profile control scheme planned to include actuation of individual beam powers, density, and loop voltage. As part of this work, a flexible framework for closed loop simulations within the high-fidelity code TRANSP was developed. The framework, used here to identify control-design-oriented models and to tune and test the proposed controller, exploits many of the predictive capabilities of TRANSP and provides a means for performing control calculations based on user-supplied data (controller matrices, target waveforms, etc). The flexible framework should enable high-fidelity testing of a variety of control algorithms, thereby reducing the amount of expensive experimental time needed to implement new control algorithms on NSTX-U and other devices.

Pathological tremor prediction using surface EMG and acceleration: potential use in “ON-OFF” demand driven deep brain stimulator design

PubMed Central

Basu, Ishita; Graupe, Daniel; Tuninetti, Daniela; Shukla, Pitamber; Slavin, Konstantin V.; Metman, Leo Verhagen; Corcos, Daniel M.

2013-01-01

Objective We present a proof of concept for a novel method of predicting the onset of pathological tremor using non-invasively measured surface electromyogram (sEMG) and acceleration from tremor-affected extremities of patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD) and Essential tremor (ET). Approach The tremor prediction algorithm uses a set of spectral (fourier and wavelet) and non-linear time series (entropy and recurrence rate) parameters extracted from the non-invasively recorded sEMG and acceleration signals. Main results The resulting algorithm is shown to successfully predict tremor onset for all 91 trials recorded in 4 PD patients and for all 91 trials recorded in 4 ET patients. The predictor achieves a 100% sensitivity for all trials considered, along with an overall accuracy of 85.7% for all ET trials and 80.2% for all PD trials. By using a Pearson’s chi-square test, the prediction results are shown to significantly differ from a random prediction outcome. Significance The tremor prediction algorithm can be potentially used for designing the next generation of non-invasive closed-loop predictive ON-OFF controllers for deep brain stimulation (DBS), used for suppressing pathological tremor in such patients. Such a system is based on alternating ON and OFF DBS periods, an incoming tremor being predicted during the time intervals when DBS is OFF, so as to turn DBS back ON. The prediction should be a few seconds before tremor re-appears so that the patient is tremor-free for the entire DBS ON-OFF cycle as well as the tremor-free DBS OFF interval should be maximized in order to minimize the current injected in the brain and battery usage. PMID:23658233

Pathological tremor prediction using surface electromyogram and acceleration: potential use in ‘ON-OFF’ demand driven deep brain stimulator design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Ishita; Graupe, Daniel; Tuninetti, Daniela; Shukla, Pitamber; Slavin, Konstantin V.; Verhagen Metman, Leo; Corcos, Daniel M.

2013-06-01

Objective. We present a proof of concept for a novel method of predicting the onset of pathological tremor using non-invasively measured surface electromyogram (sEMG) and acceleration from tremor-affected extremities of patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD) and essential tremor (ET). Approach. The tremor prediction algorithm uses a set of spectral (Fourier and wavelet) and nonlinear time series (entropy and recurrence rate) parameters extracted from the non-invasively recorded sEMG and acceleration signals. Main results. The resulting algorithm is shown to successfully predict tremor onset for all 91 trials recorded in 4 PD patients and for all 91 trials recorded in 4 ET patients. The predictor achieves a 100% sensitivity for all trials considered, along with an overall accuracy of 85.7% for all ET trials and 80.2% for all PD trials. By using a Pearson’s chi-square test, the prediction results are shown to significantly differ from a random prediction outcome. Significance. The tremor prediction algorithm can be potentially used for designing the next generation of non-invasive closed-loop predictive ON-OFF controllers for deep brain stimulation (DBS), used for suppressing pathological tremor in such patients. Such a system is based on alternating ON and OFF DBS periods, an incoming tremor being predicted during the time intervals when DBS is OFF, so as to turn DBS back ON. The prediction should be a few seconds before tremor re-appears so that the patient is tremor-free for the entire DBS ON-OFF cycle and the tremor-free DBS OFF interval should be maximized in order to minimize the current injected in the brain and battery usage.

A hierarchical framework for air traffic control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Kaushik

Air travel in recent years has been plagued by record delays, with over $8 billion in direct operating costs being attributed to 100 million flight delay minutes in 2007. Major contributing factors to delay include weather, congestion, and aging infrastructure; the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) aims to alleviate these delays through an upgrade of the air traffic control system. Changes to large-scale networked systems such as air traffic control are complicated by the need for coordinated solutions over disparate temporal and spatial scales. Individual air traffic controllers must ensure aircraft maintain safe separation locally with a time horizon of seconds to minutes, whereas regional plans are formulated to efficiently route flows of aircraft around weather and congestion on the order of every hour. More efficient control algorithms that provide a coordinated solution are required to safely handle a larger number of aircraft in a fixed amount of airspace. Improved estimation algorithms are also needed to provide accurate aircraft state information and situational awareness for human controllers. A hierarchical framework is developed to simultaneously solve the sometimes conflicting goals of regional efficiency and local safety. Careful attention is given in defining the interactions between the layers of this hierarchy. In this way, solutions to individual air traffic problems can be targeted and implemented as needed. First, the regional traffic flow management problem is posed as an optimization problem and shown to be NP-Hard. Approximation methods based on aggregate flow models are developed to enable real-time implementation of algorithms that reduce the impact of congestion and adverse weather. Second, the local trajectory design problem is solved using a novel slot-based sector model. This model is used to analyze sector capacity under varying traffic patterns, providing a more comprehensive understanding of how increased automation in NextGen will affect the overall performance of air traffic control. The dissertation also provides solutions to several key estimation problems that support corresponding control tasks. Throughout the development of these estimation algorithms, aircraft motion is modeled using hybrid systems, which encapsulate both the discrete flight mode of an aircraft and the evolution of continuous states such as position and velocity. The target-tracking problem is posed as one of hybrid state estimation, and two new algorithms are developed to exploit structure specific to aircraft motion, especially near airports. First, discrete mode evolution is modeled using state-dependent transitions, in which the likelihood of changing flight modes is dependent on aircraft state. Second, an estimator is designed for systems with limited mode changes, including arrival aircraft. Improved target tracking facilitates increased safety in collision avoidance and trajectory design problems. A multiple-target tracking and identity management algorithm is developed to improve situational awareness for controllers about multiple maneuvering targets in a congested region. Finally, tracking algorithms are extended to predict aircraft landing times; estimated time of arrival prediction is one example of important decision support information for air traffic control.

Research on wind field algorithm of wind lidar based on BP neural network and grey prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yong; Chen, Chun-Li; Luo, Xiong; Zhang, Yan; Yang, Ze-hou; Zhou, Jie; Shi, Xiao-ding; Wang, Lei

2018-01-01

This paper uses the BP neural network and grey algorithm to forecast and study radar wind field. In order to reduce the residual error in the wind field prediction which uses BP neural network and grey algorithm, calculating the minimum value of residual error function, adopting the residuals of the gray algorithm trained by BP neural network, using the trained network model to forecast the residual sequence, using the predicted residual error sequence to modify the forecast sequence of the grey algorithm. The test data show that using the grey algorithm modified by BP neural network can effectively reduce the residual value and improve the prediction precision.

Constant-Time Pattern Matching For Real-Time Production Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parson, Dale E.; Blank, Glenn D.

1989-03-01

Many intelligent systems must respond to sensory data or critical environmental conditions in fixed, predictable time. Rule-based systems, including those based on the efficient Rete matching algorithm, cannot guarantee this result. Improvement in execution-time efficiency is not all that is needed here; it is important to ensure constant, 0(1) time limits for portions of the matching process. Our approach is inspired by two observations about human performance. First, cognitive psychologists distinguish between automatic and controlled processing. Analogously, we partition the matching process across two networks. The first is the automatic partition; it is characterized by predictable 0(1) time and space complexity, lack of persistent memory, and is reactive in nature. The second is the controlled partition; it includes the search-based goal-driven and data-driven processing typical of most production system programming. The former is responsible for recognition and response to critical environmental conditions. The latter is responsible for the more flexible problem-solving behaviors consistent with the notion of intelligence. Support for learning and refining the automatic partition can be placed in the controlled partition. Our second observation is that people are able to attend to more critical stimuli or requirements selectively. Our match algorithm uses priorities to focus matching. It compares priority of information during matching, rather than deferring this comparison until conflict resolution. Messages from the automatic partition are able to interrupt the controlled partition, enhancing system responsiveness. Our algorithm has numerous applications for systems that must exhibit time-constrained behavior.

Anticipatory control: A software retrofit for current plant controllers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parthasarathy, S.; Parlos, A.G.; Atiya, A.F.

1993-01-01

The design and simulated testing of an artificial neural network (ANN)-based self-adapting controller for complex process systems are presented in this paper. The proposed controller employs concepts based on anticipatory systems, which have been widely used in the petroleum and chemical industries, and they are slowly finding their way into the power industry. In particular, model predictive control (MPC) is used for the systematic adaptation of the controller parameters to achieve desirable plant performance over the entire operating envelope. The versatile anticipatory control algorithm developed in this study is projected to enhance plant performance and lend robustness to drifts inmore » plant parameters and to modeling uncertainties. This novel technique of integrating recurrent ANNs with a conventional controller structure appears capable of controlling complex, nonlinear, and nonminimum phase process systems. The direct, on-line adaptive control algorithm presented in this paper considers the plant response over a finite time horizon, diminishing the need for manual control or process interruption for controller gain tuning.« less

Fast Demand Forecast of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations for Cell Phone Application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Majidpour, Mostafa; Qiu, Charlie; Chung, Ching-Yen

This paper describes the core cellphone application algorithm which has been implemented for the prediction of energy consumption at Electric Vehicle (EV) Charging Stations at UCLA. For this interactive user application, the total time of accessing database, processing the data and making the prediction, needs to be within a few seconds. We analyze four relatively fast Machine Learning based time series prediction algorithms for our prediction engine: Historical Average, kNearest Neighbor, Weighted k-Nearest Neighbor, and Lazy Learning. The Nearest Neighbor algorithm (k Nearest Neighbor with k=1) shows better performance and is selected to be the prediction algorithm implemented for themore » cellphone application. Two applications have been designed on top of the prediction algorithm: one predicts the expected available energy at the station and the other one predicts the expected charging finishing time. The total time, including accessing the database, data processing, and prediction is about one second for both applications.« less

Evaluation of developmental metrics for utilization in a pediatric advanced automatic crash notification algorithm.

PubMed

Doud, Andrea N; Weaver, Ashley A; Talton, Jennifer W; Barnard, Ryan T; Petty, John; Stitzel, Joel D

2016-01-01

Appropriate treatment at designated trauma centers (TCs) improves outcomes among injured children after motor vehicle crashes (MVCs). Advanced Automatic Crash Notification (AACN) has shown promise in improving triage to appropriate TCs. Pediatric-specific AACN algorithms have not yet been created. To create such an algorithm, it will be necessary to include some metric of development (age, height, or weight) as a covariate in the injury risk algorithm. This study sought to determine which marker of development should serve as a covariate in such an algorithm and to quantify injury risk at different levels of this metric. A retrospective review of occupants age < 19 years within the MVC data set NASS-CDS 2000-2011 was performed. R(2) values of logistic regression models using age, height, or weight to predict 18 key injury types were compared to determine which metric should be used as a covariate in a pediatric AACN algorithm. Clinical judgment, literature review, and chi-square analysis were used to create groupings of the chosen metric that would discriminate injury patterns. Adjusted odds of particular injury types at the different levels of this metric were calculated from logistic regression while controlling for gender, vehicle velocity change (delta V), belted status (optimal, suboptimal, or unrestrained), and crash mode (rollover, rear, frontal, near-side, or far-side). NASS-CDS analysis produced 11,541 occupants age < 19 years with nonmissing data. Age, height, and weight were correlated with one another and with injury patterns. Age demonstrated the best predictive power in injury patterns and was categorized into bins of 0-4 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years, and 15-18 years. Age was a significant predictor of all 18 injury types evaluated even when controlling for all other confounders and when controlling for age- and gender-specific body mass index (BMI) classifications. Adjusted odds of key injury types with respect to these age categorizations revealed that younger children were at increased odds of sustaining Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ and 3+ head injuries and AIS 3+ spinal injuries, whereas older children were at increased odds of sustaining thoracic fractures, AIS 3+ abdominal injuries, and AIS 2+ upper and lower extremity injuries. The injury patterns observed across developmental metrics in this study mirror those previously described among children with blunt trauma. This study identifies age as the metric best suited for use in a pediatric AACN algorithm and utilizes 12 years of data to provide quantifiable risks of particular injuries at different levels of this metric. This risk quantification will have important predictive purposes in a pediatric-specific AACN algorithm.

Common spaceborne multicomputer operating system and development environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Craymer, L. G.; Lewis, B. F.; Hayes, P. J.; Jones, R. L.

1994-01-01

A preliminary technical specification for a multicomputer operating system is developed. The operating system is targeted for spaceborne flight missions and provides a broad range of real-time functionality, dynamic remote code-patching capability, and system fault tolerance and long-term survivability features. Dataflow concepts are used for representing application algorithms. Functional features are included to ensure real-time predictability for a class of algorithms which require data-driven execution on an iterative steady state basis. The development environment supports the development of algorithm code, design of control parameters, performance analysis, simulation of real-time dataflow applications, and compiling and downloading of the resulting application.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simonetto, Andrea; Dall'Anese, Emiliano

This article develops online algorithms to track solutions of time-varying constrained optimization problems. Particularly, resembling workhorse Kalman filtering-based approaches for dynamical systems, the proposed methods involve prediction-correction steps to provably track the trajectory of the optimal solutions of time-varying convex problems. The merits of existing prediction-correction methods have been shown for unconstrained problems and for setups where computing the inverse of the Hessian of the cost function is computationally affordable. This paper addresses the limitations of existing methods by tackling constrained problems and by designing first-order prediction steps that rely on the Hessian of the cost function (and do notmore » require the computation of its inverse). In addition, the proposed methods are shown to improve the convergence speed of existing prediction-correction methods when applied to unconstrained problems. Numerical simulations corroborate the analytical results and showcase performance and benefits of the proposed algorithms. A realistic application of the proposed method to real-time control of energy resources is presented.« less

A review of predictive coding algorithms.

PubMed

Spratling, M W

2017-03-01

Predictive coding is a leading theory of how the brain performs probabilistic inference. However, there are a number of distinct algorithms which are described by the term "predictive coding". This article provides a concise review of these different predictive coding algorithms, highlighting their similarities and differences. Five algorithms are covered: linear predictive coding which has a long and influential history in the signal processing literature; the first neuroscience-related application of predictive coding to explaining the function of the retina; and three versions of predictive coding that have been proposed to model cortical function. While all these algorithms aim to fit a generative model to sensory data, they differ in the type of generative model they employ, in the process used to optimise the fit between the model and sensory data, and in the way that they are related to neurobiology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Prediction of the Gas Utilization Ratio Based on TS Fuzzy Neural Network and Particle Swarm Optimization

PubMed Central

Jiang, Haihe; Yin, Yixin; Xiao, Wendong; Zhao, Baoyong

2018-01-01

Gas utilization ratio (GUR) is an important indicator that is used to evaluate the energy consumption of blast furnaces (BFs). Currently, the existing methods cannot predict the GUR accurately. In this paper, we present a novel data-driven model for predicting the GUR. The proposed approach utilized both the TS fuzzy neural network (TS-FNN) and the particle swarm algorithm (PSO) to predict the GUR. The particle swarm algorithm (PSO) is applied to optimize the parameters of the TS-FNN in order to decrease the error caused by the inaccurate initial parameter. This paper also applied the box graph (Box-plot) method to eliminate the abnormal value of the raw data during the data preprocessing. This method can deal with the data which does not obey the normal distribution which is caused by the complex industrial environments. The prediction results demonstrate that the optimization model based on PSO and the TS-FNN approach achieves higher prediction accuracy compared with the TS-FNN model and SVM model and the proposed approach can accurately predict the GUR of the blast furnace, providing an effective way for the on-line blast furnace distribution control. PMID:29461469

The Prediction of the Gas Utilization Ratio based on TS Fuzzy Neural Network and Particle Swarm Optimization.

PubMed

Zhang, Sen; Jiang, Haihe; Yin, Yixin; Xiao, Wendong; Zhao, Baoyong

2018-02-20

Gas utilization ratio (GUR) is an important indicator that is used to evaluate the energy consumption of blast furnaces (BFs). Currently, the existing methods cannot predict the GUR accurately. In this paper, we present a novel data-driven model for predicting the GUR. The proposed approach utilized both the TS fuzzy neural network (TS-FNN) and the particle swarm algorithm (PSO) to predict the GUR. The particle swarm algorithm (PSO) is applied to optimize the parameters of the TS-FNN in order to decrease the error caused by the inaccurate initial parameter. This paper also applied the box graph (Box-plot) method to eliminate the abnormal value of the raw data during the data preprocessing. This method can deal with the data which does not obey the normal distribution which is caused by the complex industrial environments. The prediction results demonstrate that the optimization model based on PSO and the TS-FNN approach achieves higher prediction accuracy compared with the TS-FNN model and SVM model and the proposed approach can accurately predict the GUR of the blast furnace, providing an effective way for the on-line blast furnace distribution control.

Advanced methods in NDE using machine learning approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wunderlich, Christian; Tschöpe, Constanze; Duckhorn, Frank

2018-04-01

Machine learning (ML) methods and algorithms have been applied recently with great success in quality control and predictive maintenance. Its goal to build new and/or leverage existing algorithms to learn from training data and give accurate predictions, or to find patterns, particularly with new and unseen similar data, fits perfectly to Non-Destructive Evaluation. The advantages of ML in NDE are obvious in such tasks as pattern recognition in acoustic signals or automated processing of images from X-ray, Ultrasonics or optical methods. Fraunhofer IKTS is using machine learning algorithms in acoustic signal analysis. The approach had been applied to such a variety of tasks in quality assessment. The principal approach is based on acoustic signal processing with a primary and secondary analysis step followed by a cognitive system to create model data. Already in the second analysis steps unsupervised learning algorithms as principal component analysis are used to simplify data structures. In the cognitive part of the software further unsupervised and supervised learning algorithms will be trained. Later the sensor signals from unknown samples can be recognized and classified automatically by the algorithms trained before. Recently the IKTS team was able to transfer the software for signal processing and pattern recognition to a small printed circuit board (PCB). Still, algorithms will be trained on an ordinary PC; however, trained algorithms run on the Digital Signal Processor and the FPGA chip. The identical approach will be used for pattern recognition in image analysis of OCT pictures. Some key requirements have to be fulfilled, however. A sufficiently large set of training data, a high signal-to-noise ratio, and an optimized and exact fixation of components are required. The automated testing can be done subsequently by the machine. By integrating the test data of many components along the value chain further optimization including lifetime and durability prediction based on big data becomes possible, even if components are used in different versions or configurations. This is the promise behind German Industry 4.0.

Predictive ability of positive clinical culture results and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, to identify and classify noninvasive Staphylococcus aureus infections: a validation study.

PubMed

Tracy, LaRee A; Furuno, Jon P; Harris, Anthony D; Singer, Mary; Langenberg, Patricia; Roghmann, Mary-Claire

2010-07-01

To develop and validate an algorithm to identify and classify noninvasive infections due to Staphylococcus aureus by using positive clinical culture results and administrative data. Retrospective cohort study. Veterans Affairs Maryland Health Care System. Data were collected retrospectively on all S. aureus clinical culture results from samples obtained from nonsterile body sites during October 1998 through September 2008 and associated administrative claims records. An algorithm was developed to identify noninvasive infections on the basis of a unique S. aureus-positive culture result from a nonsterile site sample with a matching International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9-CM), code for infection at time of sampling. Medical records of a subset of cases were reviewed to find the proportion of true noninvasive infections (cases that met the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Healthcare Safety Network [NHSN] definition of infection). Positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated for all infections and according to body site of infection. We identified 4,621 unique S. aureus-positive culture results, of which 2,816 (60.9%) results met our algorithm definition of noninvasive S. aureus infection and 1,805 (39.1%) results lacked a matching ICD-9-CM code. Among 96 cases that met our algorithm criteria for noninvasive S. aureus infection, 76 also met the NHSN criteria (PPV, 79.2% [95% confidence interval, 70.0%-86.1%]). Among 98 cases that failed to meet the algorithm criteria, 80 did not meet the NHSN criteria (NPV, 81.6% [95% confidence interval, 72.8%-88.0%]). The PPV of all culture results was 55.4%. The algorithm was most predictive for skin and soft-tissue infections and bone and joint infections. When culture-based surveillance methods are used, the addition of administrative ICD-9-CM codes for infection can increase the PPV of true noninvasive S. aureus infection over the use of positive culture results alone.

Validation of Coevolving Residue Algorithms via Pipeline Sensitivity Analysis: ELSC and OMES and ZNMI, Oh My!

PubMed Central

Brown, Christopher A.; Brown, Kevin S.

2010-01-01

Correlated amino acid substitution algorithms attempt to discover groups of residues that co-fluctuate due to either structural or functional constraints. Although these algorithms could inform both ab initio protein folding calculations and evolutionary studies, their utility for these purposes has been hindered by a lack of confidence in their predictions due to hard to control sources of error. To complicate matters further, naive users are confronted with a multitude of methods to choose from, in addition to the mechanics of assembling and pruning a dataset. We first introduce a new pair scoring method, called ZNMI (Z-scored-product Normalized Mutual Information), which drastically improves the performance of mutual information for co-fluctuating residue prediction. Second and more important, we recast the process of finding coevolving residues in proteins as a data-processing pipeline inspired by the medical imaging literature. We construct an ensemble of alignment partitions that can be used in a cross-validation scheme to assess the effects of choices made during the procedure on the resulting predictions. This pipeline sensitivity study gives a measure of reproducibility (how similar are the predictions given perturbations to the pipeline?) and accuracy (are residue pairs with large couplings on average close in tertiary structure?). We choose a handful of published methods, along with ZNMI, and compare their reproducibility and accuracy on three diverse protein families. We find that (i) of the algorithms tested, while none appear to be both highly reproducible and accurate, ZNMI is one of the most accurate by far and (ii) while users should be wary of predictions drawn from a single alignment, considering an ensemble of sub-alignments can help to determine both highly accurate and reproducible couplings. Our cross-validation approach should be of interest both to developers and end users of algorithms that try to detect correlated amino acid substitutions. PMID:20531955

An Envelope Based Feedback Control System for Earthquake Early Warning: Reality Check Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heaton, T. H.; Karakus, G.; Beck, J. L.

2016-12-01

Earthquake early warning systems are, in general, designed to be open loop control systems in such a way that the output, i.e., the warning messages, only depend on the input, i.e., recorded ground motions, up to the moment when the message is issued in real-time. We propose an algorithm, which is called Reality Check Algorithm (RCA), which would assess the accuracy of issued warning messages, and then feed the outcome of the assessment back into the system. Then, the system would modify its messages if necessary. That is, we are proposing to convert earthquake early warning systems into feedback control systems by integrating them with RCA. RCA works by continuously monitoring and comparing the observed ground motions' envelopes to the predicted envelopes of Virtual Seismologist (Cua 2005). Accuracy of magnitude and location (both spatial and temporal) estimations of the system are assessed separately by probabilistic classification models, which are trained by a Sparse Bayesian Learning technique called Automatic Relevance Determination prior.

Monthly prediction of air temperature in Australia and New Zealand with machine learning algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salcedo-Sanz, S.; Deo, R. C.; Carro-Calvo, L.; Saavedra-Moreno, B.

2016-07-01

Long-term air temperature prediction is of major importance in a large number of applications, including climate-related studies, energy, agricultural, or medical. This paper examines the performance of two Machine Learning algorithms (Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP)) in a problem of monthly mean air temperature prediction, from the previous measured values in observational stations of Australia and New Zealand, and climate indices of importance in the region. The performance of the two considered algorithms is discussed in the paper and compared to alternative approaches. The results indicate that the SVR algorithm is able to obtain the best prediction performance among all the algorithms compared in the paper. Moreover, the results obtained have shown that the mean absolute error made by the two algorithms considered is significantly larger for the last 20 years than in the previous decades, in what can be interpreted as a change in the relationship among the prediction variables involved in the training of the algorithms.

Algorithms for Robust Identification and Control of Large Space Structures. Phase 1.

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-05-14

Variate Analysis," Proc. Amer. Control Conf., San Francisco, * pp. 445-451. LECTIQUE, J., Rault, A., Tessier, M., and Testud , J.L. (1978), "Multivariable...Rault, J.L. Testud , and J. Papon (1978), "Model Predictive Heuris- tic Control: Applications to Industrial Processes," Automatica, Vol. 14, pp. 413...Control ’. Conference, Minneapolis, MN, June. TESTUD , J.L. (1979), "Commande Numerique Multivariable du Ballon de Recupera- tion de Vapeur," Adersa/Gerbios

Can human experts predict solubility better than computers?

PubMed

Boobier, Samuel; Osbourn, Anne; Mitchell, John B O

2017-12-13

In this study, we design and carry out a survey, asking human experts to predict the aqueous solubility of druglike organic compounds. We investigate whether these experts, drawn largely from the pharmaceutical industry and academia, can match or exceed the predictive power of algorithms. Alongside this, we implement 10 typical machine learning algorithms on the same dataset. The best algorithm, a variety of neural network known as a multi-layer perceptron, gave an RMSE of 0.985 log S units and an R 2 of 0.706. We would not have predicted the relative success of this particular algorithm in advance. We found that the best individual human predictor generated an almost identical prediction quality with an RMSE of 0.942 log S units and an R 2 of 0.723. The collection of algorithms contained a higher proportion of reasonably good predictors, nine out of ten compared with around half of the humans. We found that, for either humans or algorithms, combining individual predictions into a consensus predictor by taking their median generated excellent predictivity. While our consensus human predictor achieved very slightly better headline figures on various statistical measures, the difference between it and the consensus machine learning predictor was both small and statistically insignificant. We conclude that human experts can predict the aqueous solubility of druglike molecules essentially equally well as machine learning algorithms. We find that, for either humans or algorithms, combining individual predictions into a consensus predictor by taking their median is a powerful way of benefitting from the wisdom of crowds.

Adaptive control of artificial pancreas systems - a review.

PubMed

Turksoy, Kamuran; Cinar, Ali

2014-01-01

Artificial pancreas (AP) systems offer an important improvement in regulating blood glucose concentration for patients with type 1 diabetes, compared to current approaches. AP consists of sensors, control algorithms and an insulin pump. Different AP control algorithms such as proportional-integral-derivative, model-predictive control, adaptive control, and fuzzy logic control have been investigated in simulation and clinical studies in the past three decades. The variability over time and complexity of the dynamics of blood glucose concentration, unsteady disturbances such as meals, time-varying delays on measurements and insulin infusion, and noisy data from sensors create a challenging system to AP. Adaptive control is a powerful control technique that can deal with such challenges. In this paper, a review of adaptive control techniques for blood glucose regulation with an AP system is presented. The investigations and advances in technology produced impressive results, but there is still a need for a reliable AP system that is both commercially viable and appealing to patients with type 1 diabetes.

Discrete sequence prediction and its applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laird, Philip

1992-01-01

Learning from experience to predict sequences of discrete symbols is a fundamental problem in machine learning with many applications. We apply sequence prediction using a simple and practical sequence-prediction algorithm, called TDAG. The TDAG algorithm is first tested by comparing its performance with some common data compression algorithms. Then it is adapted to the detailed requirements of dynamic program optimization, with excellent results.

The effect of machine learning regression algorithms and sample size on individualized behavioral prediction with functional connectivity features.

PubMed

Cui, Zaixu; Gong, Gaolang

2018-06-02

Individualized behavioral/cognitive prediction using machine learning (ML) regression approaches is becoming increasingly applied. The specific ML regression algorithm and sample size are two key factors that non-trivially influence prediction accuracies. However, the effects of the ML regression algorithm and sample size on individualized behavioral/cognitive prediction performance have not been comprehensively assessed. To address this issue, the present study included six commonly used ML regression algorithms: ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, ridge regression, elastic-net regression, linear support vector regression (LSVR), and relevance vector regression (RVR), to perform specific behavioral/cognitive predictions based on different sample sizes. Specifically, the publicly available resting-state functional MRI (rs-fMRI) dataset from the Human Connectome Project (HCP) was used, and whole-brain resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) or rsFC strength (rsFCS) were extracted as prediction features. Twenty-five sample sizes (ranged from 20 to 700) were studied by sub-sampling from the entire HCP cohort. The analyses showed that rsFC-based LASSO regression performed remarkably worse than the other algorithms, and rsFCS-based OLS regression performed markedly worse than the other algorithms. Regardless of the algorithm and feature type, both the prediction accuracy and its stability exponentially increased with increasing sample size. The specific patterns of the observed algorithm and sample size effects were well replicated in the prediction using re-testing fMRI data, data processed by different imaging preprocessing schemes, and different behavioral/cognitive scores, thus indicating excellent robustness/generalization of the effects. The current findings provide critical insight into how the selected ML regression algorithm and sample size influence individualized predictions of behavior/cognition and offer important guidance for choosing the ML regression algorithm or sample size in relevant investigations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A prediction algorithm for first onset of major depression in the general population: development and validation.

PubMed

Wang, JianLi; Sareen, Jitender; Patten, Scott; Bolton, James; Schmitz, Norbert; Birney, Arden

2014-05-01

Prediction algorithms are useful for making clinical decisions and for population health planning. However, such prediction algorithms for first onset of major depression do not exist. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prediction algorithm for first onset of major depression in the general population. Longitudinal study design with approximate 3-year follow-up. The study was based on data from a nationally representative sample of the US general population. A total of 28 059 individuals who participated in Waves 1 and 2 of the US National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions and who had not had major depression at Wave 1 were included. The prediction algorithm was developed using logistic regression modelling in 21 813 participants from three census regions. The algorithm was validated in participants from the 4th census region (n=6246). Major depression occurred since Wave 1 of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions, assessed by the Alcohol Use Disorder and Associated Disabilities Interview Schedule-diagnostic and statistical manual for mental disorders IV. A prediction algorithm containing 17 unique risk factors was developed. The algorithm had good discriminative power (C statistics=0.7538, 95% CI 0.7378 to 0.7699) and excellent calibration (F-adjusted test=1.00, p=0.448) with the weighted data. In the validation sample, the algorithm had a C statistic of 0.7259 and excellent calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2)=3.41, p=0.906). The developed prediction algorithm has good discrimination and calibration capacity. It can be used by clinicians, mental health policy-makers and service planners and the general public to predict future risk of having major depression. The application of the algorithm may lead to increased personalisation of treatment, better clinical decisions and more optimal mental health service planning.

Multi-linear model set design based on the nonlinearity measure and H-gap metric.

PubMed

Shaghaghi, Davood; Fatehi, Alireza; Khaki-Sedigh, Ali

2017-05-01

This paper proposes a model bank selection method for a large class of nonlinear systems with wide operating ranges. In particular, nonlinearity measure and H-gap metric are used to provide an effective algorithm to design a model bank for the system. Then, the proposed model bank is accompanied with model predictive controllers to design a high performance advanced process controller. The advantage of this method is the reduction of excessive switch between models and also decrement of the computational complexity in the controller bank that can lead to performance improvement of the control system. The effectiveness of the method is verified by simulations as well as experimental studies on a pH neutralization laboratory apparatus which confirms the efficiency of the proposed algorithm. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Safe Exploration Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning Controllers.

PubMed

Mannucci, Tommaso; van Kampen, Erik-Jan; de Visser, Cornelis; Chu, Qiping

2018-04-01

Self-learning approaches, such as reinforcement learning, offer new possibilities for autonomous control of uncertain or time-varying systems. However, exploring an unknown environment under limited prediction capabilities is a challenge for a learning agent. If the environment is dangerous, free exploration can result in physical damage or in an otherwise unacceptable behavior. With respect to existing methods, the main contribution of this paper is the definition of a new approach that does not require global safety functions, nor specific formulations of the dynamics or of the environment, but relies on interval estimation of the dynamics of the agent during the exploration phase, assuming a limited capability of the agent to perceive the presence of incoming fatal states. Two algorithms are presented with this approach. The first is the Safety Handling Exploration with Risk Perception Algorithm (SHERPA), which provides safety by individuating temporary safety functions, called backups. SHERPA is shown in a simulated, simplified quadrotor task, for which dangerous states are avoided. The second algorithm, denominated OptiSHERPA, can safely handle more dynamically complex systems for which SHERPA is not sufficient through the use of safety metrics. An application of OptiSHERPA is simulated on an aircraft altitude control task.

Optimal Control of a Surge-Mode WEC in Random Waves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chertok, Allan; Ceberio, Olivier; Staby, Bill

2016-08-30

The objective of this project was to develop one or more real-time feedback and feed-forward (MPC) control algorithms for an Oscillating Surge Wave Converter (OSWC) developed by RME called SurgeWEC™ that leverages recent innovations in wave energy converter (WEC) control theory to maximize power production in random wave environments. The control algorithms synthesized innovations in dynamic programming and nonlinear wave dynamics using anticipatory wave sensors and localized sensor measurements; e.g. position and velocity of the WEC Power Take Off (PTO), with predictive wave forecasting data. The result was an advanced control system that uses feedback or feed-forward data from anmore » array of sensor channels comprised of both localized and deployed sensors fused into a single decision process that optimally compensates for uncertainties in the system dynamics, wave forecasts, and sensor measurement errors.« less

Real-time control of combined surface water quantity and quality: polder flushing.

PubMed

Xu, M; van Overloop, P J; van de Giesen, N C; Stelling, G S

2010-01-01

In open water systems, keeping both water depths and water quality at specified values is critical for maintaining a 'healthy' water system. Many systems still require manual operation, at least for water quality management. When applying real-time control, both quantity and quality standards need to be met. In this paper, an artificial polder flushing case is studied. Model Predictive Control (MPC) is developed to control the system. In addition to MPC, a 'forward estimation' procedure is used to acquire water quality predictions for the simplified model used in MPC optimization. In order to illustrate the advantages of MPC, classical control [Proportional-Integral control (PI)] has been developed for comparison in the test case. The results show that both algorithms are able to control the polder flushing process, but MPC is more efficient in functionality and control flexibility.

Prediction of pork quality parameters by applying fractals and data mining on MRI.

PubMed

Caballero, Daniel; Pérez-Palacios, Trinidad; Caro, Andrés; Amigo, José Manuel; Dahl, Anders B; ErsbØll, Bjarne K; Antequera, Teresa

2017-09-01

This work firstly investigates the use of MRI, fractal algorithms and data mining techniques to determine pork quality parameters non-destructively. The main objective was to evaluate the capability of fractal algorithms (Classical Fractal algorithm, CFA; Fractal Texture Algorithm, FTA and One Point Fractal Texture Algorithm, OPFTA) to analyse MRI in order to predict quality parameters of loin. In addition, the effect of the sequence acquisition of MRI (Gradient echo, GE; Spin echo, SE and Turbo 3D, T3D) and the predictive technique of data mining (Isotonic regression, IR and Multiple linear regression, MLR) were analysed. Both fractal algorithm, FTA and OPFTA are appropriate to analyse MRI of loins. The sequence acquisition, the fractal algorithm and the data mining technique seems to influence on the prediction results. For most physico-chemical parameters, prediction equations with moderate to excellent correlation coefficients were achieved by using the following combinations of acquisition sequences of MRI, fractal algorithms and data mining techniques: SE-FTA-MLR, SE-OPFTA-IR, GE-OPFTA-MLR, SE-OPFTA-MLR, with the last one offering the best prediction results. Thus, SE-OPFTA-MLR could be proposed as an alternative technique to determine physico-chemical traits of fresh and dry-cured loins in a non-destructive way with high accuracy. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Large-Scale Mapping and Validation of Escherichia coli Transcriptional Regulation from a Compendium of Expression Profiles

PubMed Central

Thaden, Joshua T; Mogno, Ilaria; Wierzbowski, Jamey; Cottarel, Guillaume; Kasif, Simon; Collins, James J; Gardner, Timothy S

2007-01-01

Machine learning approaches offer the potential to systematically identify transcriptional regulatory interactions from a compendium of microarray expression profiles. However, experimental validation of the performance of these methods at the genome scale has remained elusive. Here we assess the global performance of four existing classes of inference algorithms using 445 Escherichia coli Affymetrix arrays and 3,216 known E. coli regulatory interactions from RegulonDB. We also developed and applied the context likelihood of relatedness (CLR) algorithm, a novel extension of the relevance networks class of algorithms. CLR demonstrates an average precision gain of 36% relative to the next-best performing algorithm. At a 60% true positive rate, CLR identifies 1,079 regulatory interactions, of which 338 were in the previously known network and 741 were novel predictions. We tested the predicted interactions for three transcription factors with chromatin immunoprecipitation, confirming 21 novel interactions and verifying our RegulonDB-based performance estimates. CLR also identified a regulatory link providing central metabolic control of iron transport, which we confirmed with real-time quantitative PCR. The compendium of expression data compiled in this study, coupled with RegulonDB, provides a valuable model system for further improvement of network inference algorithms using experimental data. PMID:17214507

Predicting the random drift of MEMS gyroscope based on K-means clustering and OLS RBF Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen-yu; Zhang, Li-jie

2017-10-01

Measure error of the sensor can be effectively compensated with prediction. Aiming at large random drift error of MEMS(Micro Electro Mechanical System))gyroscope, an improved learning algorithm of Radial Basis Function(RBF) Neural Network(NN) based on K-means clustering and Orthogonal Least-Squares (OLS) is proposed in this paper. The algorithm selects the typical samples as the initial cluster centers of RBF NN firstly, candidates centers with K-means algorithm secondly, and optimizes the candidate centers with OLS algorithm thirdly, which makes the network structure simpler and makes the prediction performance better. Experimental results show that the proposed K-means clustering OLS learning algorithm can predict the random drift of MEMS gyroscope effectively, the prediction error of which is 9.8019e-007°/s and the prediction time of which is 2.4169e-006s

An algorithm for modeling entrainment and naturally and chemically dispersed oil droplet size distribution under surface breaking wave conditions.

PubMed

Li, Zhengkai; Spaulding, Malcolm L; French-McCay, Deborah

2017-06-15

A surface oil entrainment model and droplet size model have been developed to estimate the flux of oil under surface breaking waves. Both equations are expressed in dimensionless Weber number (We) and Ohnesorge number (Oh, which explicitly accounts for the oil viscosity, density, and oil-water interfacial tension). Data from controlled lab studies, large-scale wave tank tests, and field observations have been used to calibrate the constants of the two independent equations. Predictions using the new algorithm compared well with the observed amount of oil removed from the surface and the sizes of the oil droplets entrained in the water column. Simulations with the new algorithm, implemented in a comprehensive spill model, show that entrainment rates increase more rapidly with wind speed than previously predicted based on the existing Delvigne and Sweeney's (1988) model, and a quasi-stable droplet size distribution (d<~50μm) is developed in the near surface water. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Technologies for network-centric C4ISR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunkelberger, Kirk A.

2003-07-01

Three technologies form the heart of any network-centric command, control, communication, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) system: distributed processing, reconfigurable networking, and distributed resource management. Distributed processing, enabled by automated federation, mobile code, intelligent process allocation, dynamic multiprocessing groups, check pointing, and other capabilities creates a virtual peer-to-peer computing network across the force. Reconfigurable networking, consisting of content-based information exchange, dynamic ad-hoc routing, information operations (perception management) and other component technologies forms the interconnect fabric for fault tolerant inter processor and node communication. Distributed resource management, which provides the means for distributed cooperative sensor management, foe sensor utilization, opportunistic collection, symbiotic inductive/deductive reasoning and other applications provides the canonical algorithms for network-centric enterprises and warfare. This paper introduces these three core technologies and briefly discusses a sampling of their component technologies and their individual contributions to network-centric enterprises and warfare. Based on the implied requirements, two new algorithms are defined and characterized which provide critical building blocks for network centricity: distributed asynchronous auctioning and predictive dynamic source routing. The first provides a reliable, efficient, effective approach for near-optimal assignment problems; the algorithm has been demonstrated to be a viable implementation for ad-hoc command and control, object/sensor pairing, and weapon/target assignment. The second is founded on traditional dynamic source routing (from mobile ad-hoc networking), but leverages the results of ad-hoc command and control (from the contributed auctioning algorithm) into significant increases in connection reliability through forward prediction. Emphasis is placed on the advantages gained from the closed-loop interaction of the multiple technologies in the network-centric application environment.

Standard cardiovascular disease risk algorithms underestimate the risk of cardiovascular disease in schizophrenia: evidence from a national primary care database.

PubMed

McLean, Gary; Martin, Julie Langan; Martin, Daniel J; Guthrie, Bruce; Mercer, Stewart W; Smith, Daniel J

2014-10-01

Schizophrenia is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality. Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction algorithms are widely in the general population, their utility for patients with schizophrenia is unknown. A primary care dataset was used to compare CVD risk scores (Joint British Societies (JBS) score), cardiovascular risk factors, rates of pre-existing CVD and age of first diagnosis of CVD for schizophrenia (n=1997) relative to population controls (n=215,165). Pre-existing rates of CVD and the recording of risk factors for those without CVD were higher in the schizophrenia cohort in the younger age groups, for both genders. Those with schizophrenia were more likely to have a first diagnosis of CVD at a younger age, with nearly half of men with schizophrenia plus CVD diagnosed under the age of 55 (schizophrenia men 46.1% vs. control men 34.8%, p<0.001; schizophrenia women 28.9% vs. control women 23.8%, p<0.001). However, despite high rates of CVD risk factors within the schizophrenia group, only a very small percentage (3.2% of men and 7.5% of women) of those with schizophrenia under age 55 were correctly identified as high risk for CVD according to the JBS risk algorithm. The JBS2 risk score identified only a small proportion of individuals with schizophrenia under the age of 55 as being at high risk of CVD, despite high rates of risk factors and high rates of first diagnosis of CVD within this age group. The validity of CVD risk prediction algorithms for schizophrenia needs further research. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Building a generalized distributed system model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukkamala, R.

1993-01-01

The key elements in the 1992-93 period of the project are the following: (1) extensive use of the simulator to implement and test - concurrency control algorithms, interactive user interface, and replica control algorithms; and (2) investigations into the applicability of data and process replication in real-time systems. In the 1993-94 period of the project, we intend to accomplish the following: (1) concentrate on efforts to investigate the effects of data and process replication on hard and soft real-time systems - especially we will concentrate on the impact of semantic-based consistency control schemes on a distributed real-time system in terms of improved reliability, improved availability, better resource utilization, and reduced missed task deadlines; and (2) use the prototype to verify the theoretically predicted performance of locking protocols, etc.

Data-driven prognosis: a multi-physics approach verified via balloon burst experiment.

PubMed

Chandra, Abhijit; Kar, Oliva

2015-04-08

A multi-physics formulation for data-driven prognosis (DDP) is developed. Unlike traditional predictive strategies that require controlled offline measurements or 'training' for determination of constitutive parameters to derive the transitional statistics, the proposed DDP algorithm relies solely on in situ measurements. It uses a deterministic mechanics framework, but the stochastic nature of the solution arises naturally from the underlying assumptions regarding the order of the conservation potential as well as the number of dimensions involved. The proposed DDP scheme is capable of predicting onset of instabilities. Because the need for offline testing (or training) is obviated, it can be easily implemented for systems where such a priori testing is difficult or even impossible to conduct. The prognosis capability is demonstrated here via a balloon burst experiment where the instability is predicted using only online visual observations. The DDP scheme never failed to predict the incipient failure, and no false-positives were issued. The DDP algorithm is applicable to other types of datasets. Time horizons of DDP predictions can be adjusted by using memory over different time windows. Thus, a big dataset can be parsed in time to make a range of predictions over varying time horizons.

Reference governors for controlled belt restraint systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Laan, E. P.; Heemels, W. P. M. H.; Luijten, H.; Veldpaus, F. E.; Steinbuch, M.

2010-07-01

Today's restraint systems typically include a number of airbags, and a three-point seat belt with load limiter and pretensioner. For the class of real-time controlled restraint systems, the restraint actuator settings are continuously manipulated during the crash. This paper presents a novel control strategy for these systems. The control strategy developed here is based on a combination of model predictive control and reference management, in which a non-linear device - a reference governor (RG) - is added to a primal closed-loop controlled system. This RG determines an optimal setpoint in terms of injury reduction and constraint satisfaction by solving a constrained optimisation problem. Prediction of the vehicle motion, required to predict future constraint violation, is included in the design and is based on past crash data, using linear regression techniques. Simulation results with MADYMO models show that, with ideal sensors and actuators, a significant reduction (45%) of the peak chest acceleration can be achieved, without prior knowledge of the crash. Furthermore, it is shown that the algorithms are sufficiently fast to be implemented online.

Validation of algorithms to determine incidence of Hirschsprung disease in Ontario, Canada: a population-based study using health administrative data

PubMed Central

Nasr, Ahmed; Sullivan, Katrina J; Chan, Emily W; Wong, Coralie A; Benchimol, Eric I

2017-01-01

Objective Incidence rates of Hirschsprung disease (HD) vary by geographical region, yet no recent population-based estimate exists for Canada. The objective of our study was to validate and use health administrative data from Ontario, Canada to describe trends in incidence of HD between 1991 and 2013. Study design To identify children with HD we tested algorithms consisting of a combination of diagnostic, procedural, and intervention codes against the reference standard of abstracted clinical charts from a tertiary pediatric hospital. The algorithm with the highest positive predictive value (PPV) that could maintain high sensitivity was applied to health administrative data from April 31, 1991 to March 31, 2014 (fiscal years 1991–2013) to determine annual incidence. Temporal trends were evaluated using Poisson regression, controlling for sex as a covariate. Results The selected algorithm was highly sensitive (93.5%) and specific (>99.9%) with excellent predictive abilities (PPV 89.6% and negative predictive value >99.9%). Using the algorithm, a total of 679 patients diagnosed with HD were identified in Ontario between 1991 and 2013. The overall incidence during this time was 2.05 per 10,000 live births (or 1 in 4,868 live births). The incidence did not change significantly over time (odds ratio 0.998, 95% confidence interval 0.983–1.013, p = 0.80). Conclusion Ontario health administrative data can be used to accurately identify cases of HD and describe trends in incidence. There has not been a significant change in HD incidence over time in Ontario between 1991 and 2013. PMID:29180902

Prediction of Regulation Reserve Requirements in California ISO Control Area based on BAAL Standard

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

This paper presents new methodologies developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to estimate regulation capacity requirements in the California ISO control area. Two approaches have been developed: (1) an approach based on statistical analysis of actual historical area control error (ACE) and regulation data, and (2) an approach based on balancing authority ACE limit control performance standard. The approaches predict regulation reserve requirements on a day-ahead basis including upward and downward requirements, for each operating hour of a day. California ISO data has been used to test the performance of the proposed algorithms. Results show that software tool allowsmore » saving up to 30% on the regulation procurements cost .« less

Stochastic Prediction and Feedback Control of Router Queue Size in a Virtual Network Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-18

predictor equations, while the update equations for measurement can be thought of as corrector equations. 11 2.3.1.1 Predict Equations In the... Adaptive Filters and Self -Learning Systems. Springer London, 2005. [11] Zarchan, P., and Musoff, H. Fundamentals of Kalman filtering: A Practical...iv AFIT-ENG-T-14-S-10 Abstract Modern congestion and routing management algorithms work well for networks with static topologies and moderate

Cavity parameters identification for TESLA control system development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czarski, Tomasz; Pozniak, Krysztof T.; Romaniuk, Ryszard S.; Simrock, Stefan

2005-08-01

Aim of the control system development for TESLA cavity is a more efficient stabilization of the pulsed, accelerating EM field inside resonator. Cavity parameters identification is an essential task for the comprehensive control algorithm. TESLA cavity simulator has been successfully implemented using high-speed FPGA technology. Electromechanical model of the cavity resonator includes Lorentz force detuning and beam loading. The parameters identification is based on the electrical model of the cavity. The model is represented by state space equation for envelope of the cavity voltage driven by current generator and beam loading. For a given model structure, the over-determined matrix equation is created covering long enough measurement range with the solution according to the least-squares method. A low-degree polynomial approximation is applied to estimate the time-varying cavity detuning during the pulse. The measurement channel distortion is considered, leading to the external cavity model seen by the controller. The comprehensive algorithm of the cavity parameters identification was implemented in the Matlab system with different modes of operation. Some experimental results were presented for different cavity operational conditions. The following considerations have lead to the synthesis of the efficient algorithm for the cavity control system predicted for the potential FPGA technology implementation.

Mechanobiological simulations of peri-acetabular bone ingrowth: a comparative analysis of cell-phenotype specific and phenomenological algorithms.

PubMed

Mukherjee, Kaushik; Gupta, Sanjay

2017-03-01

Several mechanobiology algorithms have been employed to simulate bone ingrowth around porous coated implants. However, there is a scarcity of quantitative comparison between the efficacies of commonly used mechanoregulatory algorithms. The objectives of this study are: (1) to predict peri-acetabular bone ingrowth using cell-phenotype specific algorithm and to compare these predictions with those obtained using phenomenological algorithm and (2) to investigate the influences of cellular parameters on bone ingrowth. The variation in host bone material property and interfacial micromotion of the implanted pelvis were mapped onto the microscale model of implant-bone interface. An overall variation of 17-88 % in peri-acetabular bone ingrowth was observed. Despite differences in predicted tissue differentiation patterns during the initial period, both the algorithms predicted similar spatial distribution of neo-tissue layer, after attainment of equilibrium. Results indicated that phenomenological algorithm, being computationally faster than the cell-phenotype specific algorithm, might be used to predict peri-prosthetic bone ingrowth. The cell-phenotype specific algorithm, however, was found to be useful in numerically investigating the influence of alterations in cellular activities on bone ingrowth, owing to biologically related factors. Amongst the host of cellular activities, matrix production rate of bone tissue was found to have predominant influence on peri-acetabular bone ingrowth.

Application of Output Predictive Algorithmic Control to a Terrain Following Aircraft System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-03-01

non-linear regime the results from an optimal control solution may be questionable. 15 -**—• - •*- "•—"".’" CHAPTER 3 Output Prpdirl- ivf ...strongly influenced by two other factors as well - the sample time T and the least-squares cost function Q. unlike the deadbeat control law of Ref...design of aircraft control systems since these methods offer tremendous insight into the dynamic behavior of the system at relatively low cost . However

Active Structural Acoustic Control of Interior Noise on a Raytheon 1900D

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palumbo, Dan; Cabell, Ran; Sullivan, Brenda; Cline, John

2000-01-01

An active structural acoustic control system has been demonstrated on a Raytheon Aircraft Company 1900D turboprop airliner. Both single frequency and multi-frequency control of the blade passage frequency and its harmonics was accomplished. The control algorithm was a variant of the popular filtered-x LMS implemented in the principal component domain. The control system consisted of 21 inertial actuators and 32 microphones. The actuators were mounted to the aircraft's ring frames. The microphones were distributed uniformly throughout the interior at head height, both seated and standing. Actuator locations were selected using a combinatorial search optimization algorithm. The control system achieved a 14 dB noise reduction of the blade passage frequency during single frequency tests. Multi-frequency control of the first 1st, 2nd and 3rd harmonics resulted in 10.2 dB, 3.3 dB and 1.6 dB noise reductions respectively. These results fall short of the predictions which were produced by the optimization algorithm (13.5 dB, 8.6 dB and 6.3 dB). The optimization was based on actuator transfer functions taken on the ground and it is postulated that cabin pressurization at flight altitude was a factor in this discrepancy.

Application of genetic algorithm to land use optimization for non-point source pollution control based on CLUE-S and SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qingrui; Liu, Ruimin; Men, Cong; Guo, Lijia

2018-05-01

The genetic algorithm (GA) was combined with the Conversion of Land Use and its Effect at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model to obtain an optimized land use pattern for controlling non-point source (NPS) pollution. The performance of the combination was evaluated. The effect of the optimized land use pattern on the NPS pollution control was estimated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and an assistant map was drawn to support the land use plan for the future. The Xiangxi River watershed was selected as the study area. Two scenarios were used to simulate the land use change. Under the historical trend scenario (Markov chain prediction), the forest area decreased by 2035.06 ha, and was mainly converted into paddy and dryland area. In contrast, under the optimized scenario (genetic algorithm (GA) prediction), up to 3370 ha of dryland area was converted into forest area. Spatially, the conversion of paddy and dryland into forest occurred mainly in the northwest and southeast of the watershed, where the slope land occupied a large proportion. The organic and inorganic phosphorus loads decreased by 3.6% and 3.7%, respectively, in the optimized scenario compared to those in the historical trend scenario. GA showed a better performance in optimized land use prediction. A comparison of the land use patterns in 2010 under the real situation and in 2020 under the optimized situation showed that Shennongjia and Shuiyuesi should convert 1201.76 ha and 1115.33 ha of dryland into forest areas, respectively, which represented the greatest changes in all regions in the watershed. The results of this study indicated that GA and the CLUE-S model can be used to optimize the land use patterns in the future and that SWAT can be used to evaluate the effect of land use optimization on non-point source pollution control. These methods may provide support for land use plan of an area.

Neural signal processing and closed-loop control algorithm design for an implanted neural recording and stimulation system.

PubMed

Hamilton, Lei; McConley, Marc; Angermueller, Kai; Goldberg, David; Corba, Massimiliano; Kim, Louis; Moran, James; Parks, Philip D; Sang Chin; Widge, Alik S; Dougherty, Darin D; Eskandar, Emad N

2015-08-01

A fully autonomous intracranial device is built to continually record neural activities in different parts of the brain, process these sampled signals, decode features that correlate to behaviors and neuropsychiatric states, and use these features to deliver brain stimulation in a closed-loop fashion. In this paper, we describe the sampling and stimulation aspects of such a device. We first describe the signal processing algorithms of two unsupervised spike sorting methods. Next, we describe the LFP time-frequency analysis and feature derivation from the two spike sorting methods. Spike sorting includes a novel approach to constructing a dictionary learning algorithm in a Compressed Sensing (CS) framework. We present a joint prediction scheme to determine the class of neural spikes in the dictionary learning framework; and, the second approach is a modified OSort algorithm which is implemented in a distributed system optimized for power efficiency. Furthermore, sorted spikes and time-frequency analysis of LFP signals can be used to generate derived features (including cross-frequency coupling, spike-field coupling). We then show how these derived features can be used in the design and development of novel decode and closed-loop control algorithms that are optimized to apply deep brain stimulation based on a patient's neuropsychiatric state. For the control algorithm, we define the state vector as representative of a patient's impulsivity, avoidance, inhibition, etc. Controller parameters are optimized to apply stimulation based on the state vector's current state as well as its historical values. The overall algorithm and software design for our implantable neural recording and stimulation system uses an innovative, adaptable, and reprogrammable architecture that enables advancement of the state-of-the-art in closed-loop neural control while also meeting the challenges of system power constraints and concurrent development with ongoing scientific research designed to define brain network connectivity and neural network dynamics that vary at the individual patient level and vary over time.

Improving personalized link prediction by hybrid diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jin-Hu; Zhu, Yu-Xiao; Zhou, Tao

2016-04-01

Inspired by traditional link prediction and to solve the problem of recommending friends in social networks, we introduce the personalized link prediction in this paper, in which each individual will get equal number of diversiform predictions. While the performances of many classical algorithms are not satisfactory under this framework, thus new algorithms are in urgent need. Motivated by previous researches in other fields, we generalize heat conduction process to the framework of personalized link prediction and find that this method outperforms many classical similarity-based algorithms, especially in the performance of diversity. In addition, we demonstrate that adding one ground node that is supposed to connect all the nodes in the system will greatly benefit the performance of heat conduction. Finally, better hybrid algorithms composed of local random walk and heat conduction have been proposed. Numerical results show that the hybrid algorithms can outperform other algorithms simultaneously in all four adopted metrics: AUC, precision, recall and hamming distance. In a word, this work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of the effect of physical processes in personalized link prediction.

Evolutionary Dynamic Multiobjective Optimization Via Kalman Filter Prediction.

PubMed

Muruganantham, Arrchana; Tan, Kay Chen; Vadakkepat, Prahlad

2016-12-01

Evolutionary algorithms are effective in solving static multiobjective optimization problems resulting in the emergence of a number of state-of-the-art multiobjective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs). Nevertheless, the interest in applying them to solve dynamic multiobjective optimization problems has only been tepid. Benchmark problems, appropriate performance metrics, as well as efficient algorithms are required to further the research in this field. One or more objectives may change with time in dynamic optimization problems. The optimization algorithm must be able to track the moving optima efficiently. A prediction model can learn the patterns from past experience and predict future changes. In this paper, a new dynamic MOEA using Kalman filter (KF) predictions in decision space is proposed to solve the aforementioned problems. The predictions help to guide the search toward the changed optima, thereby accelerating convergence. A scoring scheme is devised to hybridize the KF prediction with a random reinitialization method. Experimental results and performance comparisons with other state-of-the-art algorithms demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is capable of significantly improving the dynamic optimization performance.

Predicting Vasovagal Syncope from Heart Rate and Blood Pressure: A Prospective Study in 140 Subjects.

PubMed

Virag, Nathalie; Erickson, Mark; Taraborrelli, Patricia; Vetter, Rolf; Lim, Phang Boon; Sutton, Richard

2018-04-28

We developed a vasovagal syncope (VVS) prediction algorithm for use during head-up tilt with simultaneous analysis of heart rate (HR) and systolic blood pressure (SBP). We previously tested this algorithm retrospectively in 1155 subjects, showing sensitivity 95%, specificity 93% and median prediction time of 59s. This study was prospective, single center, on 140 subjects to evaluate this VVS prediction algorithm and assess if retrospective results were reproduced and clinically relevant. Primary endpoint was VVS prediction: sensitivity and specificity >80%. In subjects, referred for 60° head-up tilt (Italian protocol), non-invasive HR and SBP were supplied to the VVS prediction algorithm: simultaneous analysis of RR intervals, SBP trends and their variability represented by low-frequency power generated cumulative risk which was compared with a predetermined VVS risk threshold. When cumulative risk exceeded threshold, an alert was generated. Prediction time was duration between first alert and syncope. Of 140 subjects enrolled, data was usable for 134. Of 83 tilt+ve (61.9%), 81 VVS events were correctly predicted and of 51 tilt-ve subjects (38.1%), 45 were correctly identified as negative by the algorithm. Resulting algorithm performance was sensitivity 97.6%, specificity 88.2%, meeting primary endpoint. Mean VVS prediction time was 2min 26s±3min16s with median 1min 25s. Using only HR and HR variability (without SBP) the mean prediction time reduced to 1min34s±1min45s with median 1min13s. The VVS prediction algorithm, is clinically-relevant tool and could offer applications including providing a patient alarm, shortening tilt-test time, or triggering pacing intervention in implantable devices. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Lithium-ion battery cell-level control using constrained model predictive control and equivalent circuit models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xavier, Marcelo A.; Trimboli, M. Scott

2015-07-01

This paper introduces a novel application of model predictive control (MPC) to cell-level charging of a lithium-ion battery utilizing an equivalent circuit model of battery dynamics. The approach employs a modified form of the MPC algorithm that caters for direct feed-though signals in order to model near-instantaneous battery ohmic resistance. The implementation utilizes a 2nd-order equivalent circuit discrete-time state-space model based on actual cell parameters; the control methodology is used to compute a fast charging profile that respects input, output, and state constraints. Results show that MPC is well-suited to the dynamics of the battery control problem and further suggest significant performance improvements might be achieved by extending the result to electrochemical models.

Prediction of cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: performance of original and adapted SCORE algorithms.

PubMed

Arts, E E A; Popa, C D; Den Broeder, A A; Donders, R; Sandoo, A; Toms, T; Rollefstad, S; Ikdahl, E; Semb, A G; Kitas, G D; Van Riel, P L C M; Fransen, J

2016-04-01

Predictive performance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculators appears suboptimal in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A disease-specific CVD risk algorithm may improve CVD risk prediction in RA. The objectives of this study are to adapt the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm with determinants of CVD risk in RA and to assess the accuracy of CVD risk prediction calculated with the adapted SCORE algorithm. Data from the Nijmegen early RA inception cohort were used. The primary outcome was first CVD events. The SCORE algorithm was recalibrated by reweighing included traditional CVD risk factors and adapted by adding other potential predictors of CVD. Predictive performance of the recalibrated and adapted SCORE algorithms was assessed and the adapted SCORE was externally validated. Of the 1016 included patients with RA, 103 patients experienced a CVD event. Discriminatory ability was comparable across the original, recalibrated and adapted SCORE algorithms. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results indicated that all three algorithms provided poor model fit (p<0.05) for the Nijmegen and external validation cohort. The adapted SCORE algorithm mainly improves CVD risk estimation in non-event cases and does not show a clear advantage in reclassifying patients with RA who develop CVD (event cases) into more appropriate risk groups. This study demonstrates for the first time that adaptations of the SCORE algorithm do not provide sufficient improvement in risk prediction of future CVD in RA to serve as an appropriate alternative to the original SCORE. Risk assessment using the original SCORE algorithm may underestimate CVD risk in patients with RA. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Prediction of Safety Stock Using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) and Technology of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) for Stock Control at Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mashuri, Chamdan; Suryono; Suseno, Jatmiko Endro

2018-02-01

This research was conducted by prediction of safety stock using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) and technology of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) for stock control at Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI). Well-controlled stock influenced company revenue and minimized cost. It discussed about information system of safety stock prediction developed through programming language of PHP. Input data consisted of demand got from automatic, online and real time acquisition using technology of RFID, then, sent to server and stored at online database. Furthermore, data of acquisition result was predicted by using algorithm of FTS applying universe of discourse defining and fuzzy sets determination. Fuzzy set result was continued to division process of universe of discourse in order to be to final step. Prediction result was displayed at information system dashboard developed. By using 60 data from demand data, prediction score was 450.331 and safety stock was 135.535. Prediction result was done by error deviation validation using Mean Square Percent Error of 15%. It proved that FTS was good enough in predicting demand and safety stock for stock control. For deeper analysis, researchers used data of demand and universe of discourse U varying at FTS to get various result based on test data used.

Influenza detection and prediction algorithms: comparative accuracy trial in Östergötland county, Sweden, 2008-2012.

PubMed

Spreco, A; Eriksson, O; Dahlström, Ö; Timpka, T

2017-07-01

Methods for the detection of influenza epidemics and prediction of their progress have seldom been comparatively evaluated using prospective designs. This study aimed to perform a prospective comparative trial of algorithms for the detection and prediction of increased local influenza activity. Data on clinical influenza diagnoses recorded by physicians and syndromic data from a telenursing service were used. Five detection and three prediction algorithms previously evaluated in public health settings were calibrated and then evaluated over 3 years. When applied on diagnostic data, only detection using the Serfling regression method and prediction using the non-adaptive log-linear regression method showed acceptable performances during winter influenza seasons. For the syndromic data, none of the detection algorithms displayed a satisfactory performance, while non-adaptive log-linear regression was the best performing prediction method. We conclude that evidence was found for that available algorithms for influenza detection and prediction display satisfactory performance when applied on local diagnostic data during winter influenza seasons. When applied on local syndromic data, the evaluated algorithms did not display consistent performance. Further evaluations and research on combination of methods of these types in public health information infrastructures for 'nowcasting' (integrated detection and prediction) of influenza activity are warranted.

[Clinical applications of dosing algorithm in the predication of warfarin maintenance dose].

PubMed

Huang, Sheng-wen; Xiang, Dao-kang; An, Bang-quan; Li, Gui-fang; Huang, Ling; Wu, Hai-li

2011-12-27

To evaluate the feasibility of clinical application for genetic based dosing algorithm in the predication of warfarin maintenance dose in Chinese population. The clinical data were collected and blood samples harvested from a total of 126 patients undergoing heart valve replacement. The genotypes of VKORC1 and CYP2C9 were determined by melting curve analysis after PCR. They were divided randomly into the study and control groups. In the study group, the first three doses of warfarin were prescribed according to the predicted warfarin maintenance dose while warfarin was initiated at 2.5 mg/d in the control group. The warfarin doses were adjusted according to the measured international normalized ratio (INR) values. And all subjects were followed for 50 days after an initiation of warfarin therapy. At the end of a 50-day follow-up period, the proportions of the patients on a stable dose were 82.4% (42/51) and 62.5% (30/48) for the study and control groups respectively. The mean durations of reaching a stable dose of warfarin were (27.5 ± 1.8) and (34.7 ± 1.8) days and the median durations were (24.0 ± 1.7) and (33.0 ± 4.5) days in the study and control groups respectively. Significant differences existed in the durations of reaching a stable dose between the two groups (P = 0.012). Compared with the control group, the hazard ratio (HR) for the duration of reaching a stable dose was 1.786 in the study group (95%CI 1.088 - 2.875, P = 0.026). The predicted dosing algorithm incorporating genetic and non-genetic factors may shorten the duration of achieving efficiently a stable dose of warfarin. And the present study validates the feasibility of its clinical application.

BRCA-Monet: a breast cancer specific drug treatment mode-of-action network for treatment effective prediction using large scale microarray database.

PubMed

Ma, Chifeng; Chen, Hung-I; Flores, Mario; Huang, Yufei; Chen, Yidong

2013-01-01

Connectivity map (cMap) is a recent developed dataset and algorithm for uncovering and understanding the treatment effect of small molecules on different cancer cell lines. It is widely used but there are still remaining challenges for accurate predictions. Here, we propose BRCA-MoNet, a network of drug mode of action (MoA) specific to breast cancer, which is constructed based on the cMap dataset. A drug signature selection algorithm fitting the characteristic of cMap data, a quality control scheme as well as a novel query algorithm based on BRCA-MoNet are developed for more effective prediction of drug effects. BRCA-MoNet was applied to three independent data sets obtained from the GEO database: Estrodial treated MCF7 cell line, BMS-754807 treated MCF7 cell line, and a breast cancer patient microarray dataset. In the first case, BRCA-MoNet could identify drug MoAs likely to share same and reverse treatment effect. In the second case, the result demonstrated the potential of BRCA-MoNet to reposition drugs and predict treatment effects for drugs not in cMap data. In the third case, a possible procedure of personalized drug selection is showcased. The results clearly demonstrated that the proposed BRCA-MoNet approach can provide increased prediction power to cMap and thus will be useful for identification of new therapeutic candidates.

NWRA AVOSS Wake Vortex Prediction Algorithm. 3.1.1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robins, R. E.; Delisi, D. P.; Hinton, David (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This report provides a detailed description of the wake vortex prediction algorithm used in the Demonstration Version of NASA's Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS). The report includes all equations used in the algorithm, an explanation of how to run the algorithm, and a discussion of how the source code for the algorithm is organized. Several appendices contain important supplementary information, including suggestions for enhancing the algorithm and results from test cases.

Diagnosis and prediction of periodontally compromised teeth using a deep learning-based convolutional neural network algorithm.

PubMed

Lee, Jae-Hong; Kim, Do-Hyung; Jeong, Seong-Nyum; Choi, Seong-Ho

2018-04-01

The aim of the current study was to develop a computer-assisted detection system based on a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithm and to evaluate the potential usefulness and accuracy of this system for the diagnosis and prediction of periodontally compromised teeth (PCT). Combining pretrained deep CNN architecture and a self-trained network, periapical radiographic images were used to determine the optimal CNN algorithm and weights. The diagnostic and predictive accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, area under the ROC curve, confusion matrix, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using our deep CNN algorithm, based on a Keras framework in Python. The periapical radiographic dataset was split into training (n=1,044), validation (n=348), and test (n=348) datasets. With the deep learning algorithm, the diagnostic accuracy for PCT was 81.0% for premolars and 76.7% for molars. Using 64 premolars and 64 molars that were clinically diagnosed as severe PCT, the accuracy of predicting extraction was 82.8% (95% CI, 70.1%-91.2%) for premolars and 73.4% (95% CI, 59.9%-84.0%) for molars. We demonstrated that the deep CNN algorithm was useful for assessing the diagnosis and predictability of PCT. Therefore, with further optimization of the PCT dataset and improvements in the algorithm, a computer-aided detection system can be expected to become an effective and efficient method of diagnosing and predicting PCT.

A systematic investigation of computation models for predicting Adverse Drug Reactions (ADRs).

PubMed

Kuang, Qifan; Wang, MinQi; Li, Rong; Dong, YongCheng; Li, Yizhou; Li, Menglong

2014-01-01

Early and accurate identification of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) is critically important for drug development and clinical safety. Computer-aided prediction of ADRs has attracted increasing attention in recent years, and many computational models have been proposed. However, because of the lack of systematic analysis and comparison of the different computational models, there remain limitations in designing more effective algorithms and selecting more useful features. There is therefore an urgent need to review and analyze previous computation models to obtain general conclusions that can provide useful guidance to construct more effective computational models to predict ADRs. In the current study, the main work is to compare and analyze the performance of existing computational methods to predict ADRs, by implementing and evaluating additional algorithms that have been earlier used for predicting drug targets. Our results indicated that topological and intrinsic features were complementary to an extent and the Jaccard coefficient had an important and general effect on the prediction of drug-ADR associations. By comparing the structure of each algorithm, final formulas of these algorithms were all converted to linear model in form, based on this finding we propose a new algorithm called the general weighted profile method and it yielded the best overall performance among the algorithms investigated in this paper. Several meaningful conclusions and useful findings regarding the prediction of ADRs are provided for selecting optimal features and algorithms.

Automated Pressure Injury Risk Assessment System Incorporated Into an Electronic Health Record System.

PubMed

Jin, Yinji; Jin, Taixian; Lee, Sun-Mi

Pressure injury risk assessment is the first step toward preventing pressure injuries, but traditional assessment tools are time-consuming, resulting in work overload and fatigue for nurses. The objectives of the study were to build an automated pressure injury risk assessment system (Auto-PIRAS) that can assess pressure injury risk using data, without requiring nurses to collect or input additional data, and to evaluate the validity of this assessment tool. A retrospective case-control study and a system development study were conducted in a 1,355-bed university hospital in Seoul, South Korea. A total of 1,305 pressure injury patients and 5,220 nonpressure injury patients participated for the development of a risk scoring algorithm: 687 and 2,748 for the validation of the algorithm and 237 and 994 for validation after clinical implementation, respectively. A total of 4,211 pressure injury-related clinical variables were extracted from the electronic health record (EHR) systems to develop a risk scoring algorithm, which was validated and incorporated into the EHR. That program was further evaluated for predictive and concurrent validity. Auto-PIRAS, incorporated into the EHR system, assigned a risk assessment score of high, moderate, or low and displayed this on the Kardex nursing record screen. Risk scores were updated nightly according to 10 predetermined risk factors. The predictive validity measures of the algorithm validation stage were as follows: sensitivity = .87, specificity = .90, positive predictive value = .68, negative predictive value = .97, Youden index = .77, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = .95. The predictive validity measures of the Braden Scale were as follows: sensitivity = .77, specificity = .93, positive predictive value = .72, negative predictive value = .95, Youden index = .70, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = .85. The kappa of the Auto-PIRAS and Braden Scale risk classification result was .73. The predictive performance of the Auto-PIRAS was similar to Braden Scale assessments conducted by nurses. Auto-PIRAS is expected to be used as a system that assesses pressure injury risk automatically without additional data collection by nurses.

An improved reversible data hiding algorithm based on modification of prediction errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jafar, Iyad F.; Hiary, Sawsan A.; Darabkh, Khalid A.

2014-04-01

Reversible data hiding algorithms are concerned with the ability of hiding data and recovering the original digital image upon extraction. This issue is of interest in medical and military imaging applications. One particular class of such algorithms relies on the idea of histogram shifting of prediction errors. In this paper, we propose an improvement over one popular algorithm in this class. The improvement is achieved by employing a different predictor, the use of more bins in the prediction error histogram in addition to multilevel embedding. The proposed extension shows significant improvement over the original algorithm and its variations.

An accelerated non-Gaussianity based multichannel predictive deconvolution method with the limited supporting region of filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhong-xiao; Li, Zhen-chun

2016-09-01

The multichannel predictive deconvolution can be conducted in overlapping temporal and spatial data windows to solve the 2D predictive filter for multiple removal. Generally, the 2D predictive filter can better remove multiples at the cost of more computation time compared with the 1D predictive filter. In this paper we first use the cross-correlation strategy to determine the limited supporting region of filters where the coefficients play a major role for multiple removal in the filter coefficient space. To solve the 2D predictive filter the traditional multichannel predictive deconvolution uses the least squares (LS) algorithm, which requires primaries and multiples are orthogonal. To relax the orthogonality assumption the iterative reweighted least squares (IRLS) algorithm and the fast iterative shrinkage thresholding (FIST) algorithm have been used to solve the 2D predictive filter in the multichannel predictive deconvolution with the non-Gaussian maximization (L1 norm minimization) constraint of primaries. The FIST algorithm has been demonstrated as a faster alternative to the IRLS algorithm. In this paper we introduce the FIST algorithm to solve the filter coefficients in the limited supporting region of filters. Compared with the FIST based multichannel predictive deconvolution without the limited supporting region of filters the proposed method can reduce the computation burden effectively while achieving a similar accuracy. Additionally, the proposed method can better balance multiple removal and primary preservation than the traditional LS based multichannel predictive deconvolution and FIST based single channel predictive deconvolution. Synthetic and field data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Hybrid zero-voltage switching (ZVS) control for power inverters

DOEpatents

Amirahmadi, Ahmadreza; Hu, Haibing; Batarseh, Issa

2016-11-01

A power inverter combination includes a half-bridge power inverter including first and second semiconductor power switches receiving input power having an intermediate node therebetween providing an inductor current through an inductor. A controller includes input comparison circuitry receiving the inductor current having outputs coupled to first inputs of pulse width modulation (PWM) generation circuitry, and a predictive control block having an output coupled to second inputs of the PWM generation circuitry. The predictive control block is coupled to receive a measure of Vin and an output voltage at a grid connection point. A memory stores a current control algorithm configured for resetting a PWM period for a switching signal applied to control nodes of the first and second power switch whenever the inductor current reaches a predetermined upper limit or a predetermined lower limit.

Prevention of Insulin-Induced Hypoglycemia in Type 1 Diabetes with Predictive Low Glucose Management System.

PubMed

Abraham, Mary B; de Bock, Martin; Paramalingam, Nirubasini; O'Grady, Michael J; Ly, Trang T; George, Carly; Roy, Anirban; Spital, Glenn; Karula, Sophy; Heels, Kristine; Gebert, Rebecca; Fairchild, Jan M; King, Bruce R; Ambler, Geoffrey R; Cameron, Fergus; Davis, Elizabeth A; Jones, Timothy W

2016-07-01

Sensor-augmented pump therapy (SAPT) with algorithms to predict impending low blood glucose and suspend insulin delivery has the potential to reduce hypoglycemia exposure. The aim of this study was to determine whether predictive low glucose management (PLGM) system is effective in preventing insulin-induced hypoglycemia in controlled experiments. Two protocols were used to induce hypoglycemia in an in-clinic environment. (A) Insulin bolus: Insulin was administered as a manual bolus through the pump. (B) Increased basal insulin: Hypoglycemia was induced by increasing basal rates overnight to 180%. For both protocols, participants were randomized and studied on 2 separate days; a control day with SAPT alone and an intervention day with SAPT and PLGM activated. The predictive algorithm was programmed to suspend basal insulin infusion when sensor glucose was predicted to be <80 mg/dL in 30 min. The primary outcome was the requirement for hypoglycemia treatment (symptomatic hypoglycemia or plasma glucose <50 mg/dL) and was compared in both control and intervention arms. With insulin bolus, 24/28 participants required hypoglycemia treatment with SAPT alone compared to 5/28 participants when PLGM was activated (P ≤ 0.001). With increased basal rates, all the eight SAPT-alone participants required treatment for hypoglycemia compared to only one with SAPT and PLGM. There was no post pump-suspend hyperglycemia with insulin bolus (P = 0.4) or increased basal rates (P = 0.69) in participants with 2-h pump suspension on intervention days. SAPT with PLGM reduced the requirement for hypoglycemia treatment following insulin-induced hypoglycemia in an in-clinic setting.

Mortality risk score prediction in an elderly population using machine learning.

PubMed

Rose, Sherri

2013-03-01

Standard practice for prediction often relies on parametric regression methods. Interesting new methods from the machine learning literature have been introduced in epidemiologic studies, such as random forest and neural networks. However, a priori, an investigator will not know which algorithm to select and may wish to try several. Here I apply the super learner, an ensembling machine learning approach that combines multiple algorithms into a single algorithm and returns a prediction function with the best cross-validated mean squared error. Super learning is a generalization of stacking methods. I used super learning in the Study of Physical Performance and Age-Related Changes in Sonomans (SPPARCS) to predict death among 2,066 residents of Sonoma, California, aged 54 years or more during the period 1993-1999. The super learner for predicting death (risk score) improved upon all single algorithms in the collection of algorithms, although its performance was similar to that of several algorithms. Super learner outperformed the worst algorithm (neural networks) by 44% with respect to estimated cross-validated mean squared error and had an R2 value of 0.201. The improvement of super learner over random forest with respect to R2 was approximately 2-fold. Alternatives for risk score prediction include the super learner, which can provide improved performance.

Improved hybrid optimization algorithm for 3D protein structure prediction.

PubMed

Zhou, Changjun; Hou, Caixia; Wei, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Qiang

2014-07-01

A new improved hybrid optimization algorithm - PGATS algorithm, which is based on toy off-lattice model, is presented for dealing with three-dimensional protein structure prediction problems. The algorithm combines the particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA), and tabu search (TS) algorithms. Otherwise, we also take some different improved strategies. The factor of stochastic disturbance is joined in the particle swarm optimization to improve the search ability; the operations of crossover and mutation that are in the genetic algorithm are changed to a kind of random liner method; at last tabu search algorithm is improved by appending a mutation operator. Through the combination of a variety of strategies and algorithms, the protein structure prediction (PSP) in a 3D off-lattice model is achieved. The PSP problem is an NP-hard problem, but the problem can be attributed to a global optimization problem of multi-extremum and multi-parameters. This is the theoretical principle of the hybrid optimization algorithm that is proposed in this paper. The algorithm combines local search and global search, which overcomes the shortcoming of a single algorithm, giving full play to the advantage of each algorithm. In the current universal standard sequences, Fibonacci sequences and real protein sequences are certified. Experiments show that the proposed new method outperforms single algorithms on the accuracy of calculating the protein sequence energy value, which is proved to be an effective way to predict the structure of proteins.

Real-time economic nonlinear model predictive control for wind turbine control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gros, Sebastien; Schild, Axel

2017-12-01

Nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) is a strong candidate to handle the control challenges emerging in the modern wind energy industry. Recent research suggested that wind turbine (WT) control based on economic NMPC (ENMPC) can improve the closed-loop performance and simplify the task of controller design when compared to a classical NMPC approach. This paper establishes a formal relationship between the ENMPC controller and the classic NMPC approach, and compares empirically their closed-loop nominal behaviour and performance. The robustness of the performance is assessed for an inaccurate modelling of the tower fore-aft main frequency. Additionally, though a perfect wind preview is assumed here, the effect of having a limited horizon of preview of the wind speed via the LIght Detection And Ranging (LIDAR) sensor is investigated. Finally, this paper provides new algorithmic solutions for deploying ENMPC for WT control, and report improved computational times.

Predictive Scheduling for Electric Vehicles Considering Uncertainty of Load and User Behaviors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Bin; Huang, Rui; Wang, Yubo

2016-05-02

Un-coordinated Electric Vehicle (EV) charging can create unexpected load in local distribution grid, which may degrade the power quality and system reliability. The uncertainty of EV load, user behaviors and other baseload in distribution grid, is one of challenges that impedes optimal control for EV charging problem. Previous researches did not fully solve this problem due to lack of real-world EV charging data and proper stochastic model to describe these behaviors. In this paper, we propose a new predictive EV scheduling algorithm (PESA) inspired by Model Predictive Control (MPC), which includes a dynamic load estimation module and a predictive optimizationmore » module. The user-related EV load and base load are dynamically estimated based on the historical data. At each time interval, the predictive optimization program will be computed for optimal schedules given the estimated parameters. Only the first element from the algorithm outputs will be implemented according to MPC paradigm. Current-multiplexing function in each Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) is considered and accordingly a virtual load is modeled to handle the uncertainties of future EV energy demands. This system is validated by the real-world EV charging data collected on UCLA campus and the experimental results indicate that our proposed model not only reduces load variation up to 40% but also maintains a high level of robustness. Finally, IEC 61850 standard is utilized to standardize the data models involved, which brings significance to more reliable and large-scale implementation.« less

Applying Spatial-Temporal Model and Game Theory to Asymmetric Threat Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

Genshe Chen, Denis Garagic, Xiaohuan Tan, Dongxu Li, Dan Shen, Mo Wei, Xu Wang, “Team Dynamics and Tactics for Mission Planning,” Proceedings...Cruz, Jr., Genshe Chen, Dongxu Li, and Denis Garagic, “Target Selection in UAV Cooperative Control Under Uncertain Environment: Genetic Algorithm

User Controllability in a Hybrid Recommender System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parra Santander, Denis Alejandro

2013-01-01

Since the introduction of Tapestry in 1990, research on recommender systems has traditionally focused on the development of algorithms whose goal is to increase the accuracy of predicting users' taste based on historical data. In the last decade, this research has diversified, with "human factors" being one area that has received…

Terrain mapping and control of unmanned aerial vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Yeonsik

In this thesis, methods for terrain mapping and control of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are proposed. First, robust obstacle detection and tracking algorithm are introduced to eliminate the clutter noise uncorrelated with the real obstacle. This is an important problem since most types of sensor measurements are vulnerable to noise. In order to eliminate such noise, a Kalman filter-based interacting multiple model (IMM) algorithm is employed to effectively detect obstacles and estimate their positions precisely. Using the outcome of the IMM-based obstacle detection algorithm, a new method of building a probabilistic occupancy grid map is proposed based on Bayes rule in probability theory. Since the proposed map update law uses the outputs of the IMM-based obstacle detection algorithm, simultaneous tracking of moving targets and mapping of stationary obstacles are possible. This can be helpful especially in a noisy outdoor environment where different types of obstacles exist. Another feature of the algorithm is its capability to eliminate clutter noise as well as measurement noise. The proposed algorithm is simulated in Matlab using realistic sensor models. The results show close agreement with the layout of real obstacles. An efficient method called "quadtree" is used to process massive geographical information in a convenient manner. The algorithm is evaluated in a realistic simulation environment called RIPTIDE, which the NASA Ames Research Center developed to access the performance of complicated software for UAVs. Supposing that a UAV is equipped with abovementioned obstacle detection and mapping algorithm, the control problem of a small fixed-wing UAV is studied. A Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC is designed as a high level controller for the fixed-wing UAV using a kinematic model of the UAV. The kinematic model is employed because of the assumption that there exist low level controls on the UAV. The UAV dynamics are nonlinear with input constraints which is the main challenge explored in this thesis. The control objective of the NMPC is determined to track a desired line, and the analysis of the designed NMPC's stability is followed to find the conditions that can assure stability. Then, the control objective is extended to track adjoined multiple line segments with obstacle avoidance capability. In simulation, the performance of the NMPC is superb with fast convergence and small overshoot. The computation time is not a burden for a fixed-wing UAV controller with a Pentium level on-board computer that provides a reasonable control update rate.

A piloted simulator evaluation of a ground-based 4-D descent advisor algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Thomas J.; Green, Steven M.; Erzberger, Heinz

1990-01-01

A ground-based, four dimensional (4D) descent-advisor algorithm is under development at NASA-Ames. The algorithm combines detailed aerodynamic, propulsive, and atmospheric models with an efficient numerical integration scheme to generate 4D descent advisories. The ability is investigated of the 4D descent advisor algorithm to provide adequate control of arrival time for aircraft not equipped with on-board 4D guidance systems. A piloted simulation was conducted to determine the precision with which the descent advisor could predict the 4D trajectories of typical straight-in descents flown by airline pilots under different wind conditions. The effects of errors in the estimation of wind and initial aircraft weight were also studied. A description of the descent advisor as well as the result of the simulation studies are presented.

Application of dynamic recurrent neural networks in nonlinear system identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Yun; Wu, Xueli; Sun, Huiqin; Zhang, Suying; Tian, Qiang

2006-11-01

An adaptive identification method of simple dynamic recurrent neural network (SRNN) for nonlinear dynamic systems is presented in this paper. This method based on the theory that by using the inner-states feed-back of dynamic network to describe the nonlinear kinetic characteristics of system can reflect the dynamic characteristics more directly, deduces the recursive prediction error (RPE) learning algorithm of SRNN, and improves the algorithm by studying topological structure on recursion layer without the weight values. The simulation results indicate that this kind of neural network can be used in real-time control, due to its less weight values, simpler learning algorithm, higher identification speed, and higher precision of model. It solves the problems of intricate in training algorithm and slow rate in convergence caused by the complicate topological structure in usual dynamic recurrent neural network.

Formal Verification of Air Traffic Conflict Prevention Bands Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Narkawicz, Anthony J.; Munoz, Cesar A.; Dowek, Gilles

2010-01-01

In air traffic management, a pairwise conflict is a predicted loss of separation between two aircraft, referred to as the ownship and the intruder. A conflict prevention bands system computes ranges of maneuvers for the ownship that characterize regions in the airspace that are either conflict-free or 'don't go' zones that the ownship has to avoid. Conflict prevention bands are surprisingly difficult to define and analyze. Errors in the calculation of prevention bands may result in incorrect separation assurance information being displayed to pilots or air traffic controllers. This paper presents provably correct 3-dimensional prevention bands algorithms for ranges of track angle; ground speed, and vertical speed maneuvers. The algorithms have been mechanically verified in the Prototype Verification System (PVS). The verification presented in this paper extends in a non-trivial way that of previously published 2-dimensional algorithms.

Validation of administrative data used for the diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal events following nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug prescription.

PubMed

Abraham, N S; Cohen, D C; Rivers, B; Richardson, P

2006-07-15

To validate veterans affairs (VA) administrative data for the diagnosis of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID)-related upper gastrointestinal events (UGIE) and to develop a diagnostic algorithm. A retrospective study of veterans prescribed an NSAID as identified from the national pharmacy database merged with in-patient and out-patient data, followed by primary chart abstraction. Contingency tables were constructed to allow comparison with a random sample of patients prescribed an NSAID, but without UGIE. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to derive a predictive algorithm. Once derived, the algorithm was validated in a separate cohort of veterans. Of 906 patients, 606 had a diagnostic code for UGIE; 300 were a random subsample of 11 744 patients (control). Only 161 had a confirmed UGIE. The positive predictive value (PPV) of diagnostic codes was poor, but improved from 27% to 51% with the addition of endoscopic procedural codes. The strongest predictors of UGIE were an in-patient ICD-9 code for gastric ulcer, duodenal ulcer and haemorrhage combined with upper endoscopy. This algorithm had a PPV of 73% when limited to patients >or=65 years (c-statistic 0.79). Validation of the algorithm revealed a PPV of 80% among patients with an overlapping NSAID prescription. NSAID-related UGIE can be assessed using VA administrative data. The optimal algorithm includes an in-patient ICD-9 code for gastric or duodenal ulcer and gastrointestinal bleeding combined with a procedural code for upper endoscopy.

Utilizing Machine Learning and Automated Performance Metrics to Evaluate Robot-Assisted Radical Prostatectomy Performance and Predict Outcomes.

PubMed

Hung, Andrew J; Chen, Jian; Che, Zhengping; Nilanon, Tanachat; Jarc, Anthony; Titus, Micha; Oh, Paul J; Gill, Inderbir S; Liu, Yan

2018-05-01

Surgical performance is critical for clinical outcomes. We present a novel machine learning (ML) method of processing automated performance metrics (APMs) to evaluate surgical performance and predict clinical outcomes after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP). We trained three ML algorithms utilizing APMs directly from robot system data (training material) and hospital length of stay (LOS; training label) (≤2 days and >2 days) from 78 RARP cases, and selected the algorithm with the best performance. The selected algorithm categorized the cases as "Predicted as expected LOS (pExp-LOS)" and "Predicted as extended LOS (pExt-LOS)." We compared postoperative outcomes of the two groups (Kruskal-Wallis/Fisher's exact tests). The algorithm then predicted individual clinical outcomes, which we compared with actual outcomes (Spearman's correlation/Fisher's exact tests). Finally, we identified five most relevant APMs adopted by the algorithm during predicting. The "Random Forest-50" (RF-50) algorithm had the best performance, reaching 87.2% accuracy in predicting LOS (73 cases as "pExp-LOS" and 5 cases as "pExt-LOS"). The "pExp-LOS" cases outperformed the "pExt-LOS" cases in surgery time (3.7 hours vs 4.6 hours, p = 0.007), LOS (2 days vs 4 days, p = 0.02), and Foley duration (9 days vs 14 days, p = 0.02). Patient outcomes predicted by the algorithm had significant association with the "ground truth" in surgery time (p < 0.001, r = 0.73), LOS (p = 0.05, r = 0.52), and Foley duration (p < 0.001, r = 0.45). The five most relevant APMs, adopted by the RF-50 algorithm in predicting, were largely related to camera manipulation. To our knowledge, ours is the first study to show that APMs and ML algorithms may help assess surgical RARP performance and predict clinical outcomes. With further accrual of clinical data (oncologic and functional data), this process will become increasingly relevant and valuable in surgical assessment and training.

Can machine-learning improve cardiovascular risk prediction using routine clinical data?

PubMed Central

Kai, Joe; Garibaldi, Jonathan M.; Qureshi, Nadeem

2017-01-01

Background Current approaches to predict cardiovascular risk fail to identify many people who would benefit from preventive treatment, while others receive unnecessary intervention. Machine-learning offers opportunity to improve accuracy by exploiting complex interactions between risk factors. We assessed whether machine-learning can improve cardiovascular risk prediction. Methods Prospective cohort study using routine clinical data of 378,256 patients from UK family practices, free from cardiovascular disease at outset. Four machine-learning algorithms (random forest, logistic regression, gradient boosting machines, neural networks) were compared to an established algorithm (American College of Cardiology guidelines) to predict first cardiovascular event over 10-years. Predictive accuracy was assessed by area under the ‘receiver operating curve’ (AUC); and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) to predict 7.5% cardiovascular risk (threshold for initiating statins). Findings 24,970 incident cardiovascular events (6.6%) occurred. Compared to the established risk prediction algorithm (AUC 0.728, 95% CI 0.723–0.735), machine-learning algorithms improved prediction: random forest +1.7% (AUC 0.745, 95% CI 0.739–0.750), logistic regression +3.2% (AUC 0.760, 95% CI 0.755–0.766), gradient boosting +3.3% (AUC 0.761, 95% CI 0.755–0.766), neural networks +3.6% (AUC 0.764, 95% CI 0.759–0.769). The highest achieving (neural networks) algorithm predicted 4,998/7,404 cases (sensitivity 67.5%, PPV 18.4%) and 53,458/75,585 non-cases (specificity 70.7%, NPV 95.7%), correctly predicting 355 (+7.6%) more patients who developed cardiovascular disease compared to the established algorithm. Conclusions Machine-learning significantly improves accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction, increasing the number of patients identified who could benefit from preventive treatment, while avoiding unnecessary treatment of others. PMID:28376093

Can machine-learning improve cardiovascular risk prediction using routine clinical data?

PubMed

Weng, Stephen F; Reps, Jenna; Kai, Joe; Garibaldi, Jonathan M; Qureshi, Nadeem

2017-01-01

Current approaches to predict cardiovascular risk fail to identify many people who would benefit from preventive treatment, while others receive unnecessary intervention. Machine-learning offers opportunity to improve accuracy by exploiting complex interactions between risk factors. We assessed whether machine-learning can improve cardiovascular risk prediction. Prospective cohort study using routine clinical data of 378,256 patients from UK family practices, free from cardiovascular disease at outset. Four machine-learning algorithms (random forest, logistic regression, gradient boosting machines, neural networks) were compared to an established algorithm (American College of Cardiology guidelines) to predict first cardiovascular event over 10-years. Predictive accuracy was assessed by area under the 'receiver operating curve' (AUC); and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) to predict 7.5% cardiovascular risk (threshold for initiating statins). 24,970 incident cardiovascular events (6.6%) occurred. Compared to the established risk prediction algorithm (AUC 0.728, 95% CI 0.723-0.735), machine-learning algorithms improved prediction: random forest +1.7% (AUC 0.745, 95% CI 0.739-0.750), logistic regression +3.2% (AUC 0.760, 95% CI 0.755-0.766), gradient boosting +3.3% (AUC 0.761, 95% CI 0.755-0.766), neural networks +3.6% (AUC 0.764, 95% CI 0.759-0.769). The highest achieving (neural networks) algorithm predicted 4,998/7,404 cases (sensitivity 67.5%, PPV 18.4%) and 53,458/75,585 non-cases (specificity 70.7%, NPV 95.7%), correctly predicting 355 (+7.6%) more patients who developed cardiovascular disease compared to the established algorithm. Machine-learning significantly improves accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction, increasing the number of patients identified who could benefit from preventive treatment, while avoiding unnecessary treatment of others.

A unified algorithm for predicting partition coefficients for PBPK modeling of drugs and environmental chemicals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peyret, Thomas; Poulin, Patrick; Krishnan, Kannan, E-mail: kannan.krishnan@umontreal.ca

The algorithms in the literature focusing to predict tissue:blood PC (P{sub tb}) for environmental chemicals and tissue:plasma PC based on total (K{sub p}) or unbound concentration (K{sub pu}) for drugs differ in their consideration of binding to hemoglobin, plasma proteins and charged phospholipids. The objective of the present study was to develop a unified algorithm such that P{sub tb}, K{sub p} and K{sub pu} for both drugs and environmental chemicals could be predicted. The development of the unified algorithm was accomplished by integrating all mechanistic algorithms previously published to compute the PCs. Furthermore, the algorithm was structured in such amore » way as to facilitate predictions of the distribution of organic compounds at the macro (i.e. whole tissue) and micro (i.e. cells and fluids) levels. The resulting unified algorithm was applied to compute the rat P{sub tb}, K{sub p} or K{sub pu} of muscle (n = 174), liver (n = 139) and adipose tissue (n = 141) for acidic, neutral, zwitterionic and basic drugs as well as ketones, acetate esters, alcohols, aliphatic hydrocarbons, aromatic hydrocarbons and ethers. The unified algorithm reproduced adequately the values predicted previously by the published algorithms for a total of 142 drugs and chemicals. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated the relative importance of the various compound properties reflective of specific mechanistic determinants relevant to prediction of PC values of drugs and environmental chemicals. Overall, the present unified algorithm uniquely facilitates the computation of macro and micro level PCs for developing organ and cellular-level PBPK models for both chemicals and drugs.« less

Development and Validation of an Algorithm to Identify Planned Readmissions From Claims Data.

PubMed

Horwitz, Leora I; Grady, Jacqueline N; Cohen, Dorothy B; Lin, Zhenqiu; Volpe, Mark; Ngo, Chi K; Masica, Andrew L; Long, Theodore; Wang, Jessica; Keenan, Megan; Montague, Julia; Suter, Lisa G; Ross, Joseph S; Drye, Elizabeth E; Krumholz, Harlan M; Bernheim, Susannah M

2015-10-01

It is desirable not to include planned readmissions in readmission measures because they represent deliberate, scheduled care. To develop an algorithm to identify planned readmissions, describe its performance characteristics, and identify improvements. Consensus-driven algorithm development and chart review validation study at 7 acute-care hospitals in 2 health systems. For development, all discharges qualifying for the publicly reported hospital-wide readmission measure. For validation, all qualifying same-hospital readmissions that were characterized by the algorithm as planned, and a random sampling of same-hospital readmissions that were characterized as unplanned. We calculated weighted sensitivity and specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the algorithm (version 2.1), compared to gold standard chart review. In consultation with 27 experts, we developed an algorithm that characterizes 7.8% of readmissions as planned. For validation we reviewed 634 readmissions. The weighted sensitivity of the algorithm was 45.1% overall, 50.9% in large teaching centers and 40.2% in smaller community hospitals. The weighted specificity was 95.9%, positive predictive value was 51.6%, and negative predictive value was 94.7%. We identified 4 minor changes to improve algorithm performance. The revised algorithm had a weighted sensitivity 49.8% (57.1% at large hospitals), weighted specificity 96.5%, positive predictive value 58.7%, and negative predictive value 94.5%. Positive predictive value was poor for the 2 most common potentially planned procedures: diagnostic cardiac catheterization (25%) and procedures involving cardiac devices (33%). An administrative claims-based algorithm to identify planned readmissions is feasible and can facilitate public reporting of primarily unplanned readmissions. © 2015 Society of Hospital Medicine.

A Novel Approach for Blast-Induced Flyrock Prediction Based on Imperialist Competitive Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network

PubMed Central

Marto, Aminaton; Jahed Armaghani, Danial; Tonnizam Mohamad, Edy; Makhtar, Ahmad Mahir

2014-01-01

Flyrock is one of the major disturbances induced by blasting which may cause severe damage to nearby structures. This phenomenon has to be precisely predicted and subsequently controlled through the changing in the blast design to minimize potential risk of blasting. The scope of this study is to predict flyrock induced by blasting through a novel approach based on the combination of imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) and artificial neural network (ANN). For this purpose, the parameters of 113 blasting operations were accurately recorded and flyrock distances were measured for each operation. By applying the sensitivity analysis, maximum charge per delay and powder factor were determined as the most influential parameters on flyrock. In the light of this analysis, two new empirical predictors were developed to predict flyrock distance. For a comparison purpose, a predeveloped backpropagation (BP) ANN was developed and the results were compared with those of the proposed ICA-ANN model and empirical predictors. The results clearly showed the superiority of the proposed ICA-ANN model in comparison with the proposed BP-ANN model and empirical approaches. PMID:25147856

Shear wave prediction using committee fuzzy model constrained by lithofacies, Zagros basin, SW Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiroodi, Sadjad Kazem; Ghafoori, Mohammad; Ansari, Hamid Reza; Lashkaripour, Golamreza; Ghanadian, Mostafa

2017-02-01

The main purpose of this study is to introduce the geological controlling factors in improving an intelligence-based model to estimate shear wave velocity from seismic attributes. The proposed method includes three main steps in the framework of geological events in a complex sedimentary succession located in the Persian Gulf. First, the best attributes were selected from extracted seismic data. Second, these attributes were transformed into shear wave velocity using fuzzy inference systems (FIS) such as Sugeno's fuzzy inference (SFIS), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference (ANFIS) and optimized fuzzy inference (OFIS). Finally, a committee fuzzy machine (CFM) based on bat-inspired algorithm (BA) optimization was applied to combine previous predictions into an enhanced solution. In order to show the geological effect on improving the prediction, the main classes of predominate lithofacies in the reservoir of interest including shale, sand, and carbonate were selected and then the proposed algorithm was performed with and without lithofacies constraint. The results showed a good agreement between real and predicted shear wave velocity in the lithofacies-based model compared to the model without lithofacies especially in sand and carbonate.

A novel approach for blast-induced flyrock prediction based on imperialist competitive algorithm and artificial neural network.

PubMed

Marto, Aminaton; Hajihassani, Mohsen; Armaghani, Danial Jahed; Mohamad, Edy Tonnizam; Makhtar, Ahmad Mahir

2014-01-01

Flyrock is one of the major disturbances induced by blasting which may cause severe damage to nearby structures. This phenomenon has to be precisely predicted and subsequently controlled through the changing in the blast design to minimize potential risk of blasting. The scope of this study is to predict flyrock induced by blasting through a novel approach based on the combination of imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) and artificial neural network (ANN). For this purpose, the parameters of 113 blasting operations were accurately recorded and flyrock distances were measured for each operation. By applying the sensitivity analysis, maximum charge per delay and powder factor were determined as the most influential parameters on flyrock. In the light of this analysis, two new empirical predictors were developed to predict flyrock distance. For a comparison purpose, a predeveloped backpropagation (BP) ANN was developed and the results were compared with those of the proposed ICA-ANN model and empirical predictors. The results clearly showed the superiority of the proposed ICA-ANN model in comparison with the proposed BP-ANN model and empirical approaches.

Profile control simulations and experiments on TCV: a controller test environment and results using a model-based predictive controller

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maljaars, E.; Felici, F.; Blanken, T. C.; Galperti, C.; Sauter, O.; de Baar, M. R.; Carpanese, F.; Goodman, T. P.; Kim, D.; Kim, S. H.; Kong, M.; Mavkov, B.; Merle, A.; Moret, J. M.; Nouailletas, R.; Scheffer, M.; Teplukhina, A. A.; Vu, N. M. T.; The EUROfusion MST1-team; The TCV-team

2017-12-01

The successful performance of a model predictive profile controller is demonstrated in simulations and experiments on the TCV tokamak, employing a profile controller test environment. Stable high-performance tokamak operation in hybrid and advanced plasma scenarios requires control over the safety factor profile (q-profile) and kinetic plasma parameters such as the plasma beta. This demands to establish reliable profile control routines in presently operational tokamaks. We present a model predictive profile controller that controls the q-profile and plasma beta using power requests to two clusters of gyrotrons and the plasma current request. The performance of the controller is analyzed in both simulation and TCV L-mode discharges where successful tracking of the estimated inverse q-profile as well as plasma beta is demonstrated under uncertain plasma conditions and the presence of disturbances. The controller exploits the knowledge of the time-varying actuator limits in the actuator input calculation itself such that fast transitions between targets are achieved without overshoot. A software environment is employed to prepare and test this and three other profile controllers in parallel in simulations and experiments on TCV. This set of tools includes the rapid plasma transport simulator RAPTOR and various algorithms to reconstruct the plasma equilibrium and plasma profiles by merging the available measurements with model-based predictions. In this work the estimated q-profile is merely based on RAPTOR model predictions due to the absence of internal current density measurements in TCV. These results encourage to further exploit model predictive profile control in experiments on TCV and other (future) tokamaks.

Influence of characteristics of time series on short-term forecasting error parameter changes in real time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klevtsov, S. I.

2018-05-01

The impact of physical factors, such as temperature and others, leads to a change in the parameters of the technical object. Monitoring the change of parameters is necessary to prevent a dangerous situation. The control is carried out in real time. To predict the change in the parameter, a time series is used in this paper. Forecasting allows one to determine the possibility of a dangerous change in a parameter before the moment when this change occurs. The control system in this case has more time to prevent a dangerous situation. A simple time series was chosen. In this case, the algorithm is simple. The algorithm is executed in the microprocessor module in the background. The efficiency of using the time series is affected by its characteristics, which must be adjusted. In the work, the influence of these characteristics on the error of prediction of the controlled parameter was studied. This takes into account the behavior of the parameter. The values of the forecast lag are determined. The results of the research, in the case of their use, will improve the efficiency of monitoring the technical object during its operation.

Parametric Bayesian priors and better choice of negative examples improve protein function prediction.

PubMed

Youngs, Noah; Penfold-Brown, Duncan; Drew, Kevin; Shasha, Dennis; Bonneau, Richard

2013-05-01

Computational biologists have demonstrated the utility of using machine learning methods to predict protein function from an integration of multiple genome-wide data types. Yet, even the best performing function prediction algorithms rely on heuristics for important components of the algorithm, such as choosing negative examples (proteins without a given function) or determining key parameters. The improper choice of negative examples, in particular, can hamper the accuracy of protein function prediction. We present a novel approach for choosing negative examples, using a parameterizable Bayesian prior computed from all observed annotation data, which also generates priors used during function prediction. We incorporate this new method into the GeneMANIA function prediction algorithm and demonstrate improved accuracy of our algorithm over current top-performing function prediction methods on the yeast and mouse proteomes across all metrics tested. Code and Data are available at: http://bonneaulab.bio.nyu.edu/funcprop.html

Air-Traffic Controllers Evaluate The Descent Advisor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tobias, Leonard; Volckers, Uwe; Erzberger, Heinz

1992-01-01

Report describes study of Descent Advisor algorithm: software automation aid intended to assist air-traffic controllers in spacing traffic and meeting specified times or arrival. Based partly on mathematical models of weather conditions and performances of aircraft, it generates suggested clearances, including top-of-descent points and speed-profile data to attain objectives. Study focused on operational characteristics with specific attention to how it can be used for prediction, spacing, and metering.

Compressed sensing based missing nodes prediction in temporal communication network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Guangquan; Ma, Yang; Liu, Zhong; Xie, Fuli

2018-02-01

The reconstruction of complex network topology is of great theoretical and practical significance. Most research so far focuses on the prediction of missing links. There are many mature algorithms for link prediction which have achieved good results, but research on the prediction of missing nodes has just begun. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for missing node prediction in complex networks. We detect the position of missing nodes based on their neighbor nodes under the theory of compressed sensing, and extend the algorithm to the case of multiple missing nodes using spectral clustering. Experiments on real public network datasets and simulated datasets show that our algorithm can detect the locations of hidden nodes effectively with high precision.

Ensemble-based prediction of RNA secondary structures.

PubMed

Aghaeepour, Nima; Hoos, Holger H

2013-04-24

Accurate structure prediction methods play an important role for the understanding of RNA function. Energy-based, pseudoknot-free secondary structure prediction is one of the most widely used and versatile approaches, and improved methods for this task have received much attention over the past five years. Despite the impressive progress that as been achieved in this area, existing evaluations of the prediction accuracy achieved by various algorithms do not provide a comprehensive, statistically sound assessment. Furthermore, while there is increasing evidence that no prediction algorithm consistently outperforms all others, no work has been done to exploit the complementary strengths of multiple approaches. In this work, we present two contributions to the area of RNA secondary structure prediction. Firstly, we use state-of-the-art, resampling-based statistical methods together with a previously published and increasingly widely used dataset of high-quality RNA structures to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of existing RNA secondary structure prediction procedures. The results from this evaluation clarify the performance relationship between ten well-known existing energy-based pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction methods and clearly demonstrate the progress that has been achieved in recent years. Secondly, we introduce AveRNA, a generic and powerful method for combining a set of existing secondary structure prediction procedures into an ensemble-based method that achieves significantly higher prediction accuracies than obtained from any of its component procedures. Our new, ensemble-based method, AveRNA, improves the state of the art for energy-based, pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction by exploiting the complementary strengths of multiple existing prediction procedures, as demonstrated using a state-of-the-art statistical resampling approach. In addition, AveRNA allows an intuitive and effective control of the trade-off between false negative and false positive base pair predictions. Finally, AveRNA can make use of arbitrary sets of secondary structure prediction procedures and can therefore be used to leverage improvements in prediction accuracy offered by algorithms and energy models developed in the future. Our data, MATLAB software and a web-based version of AveRNA are publicly available at http://www.cs.ubc.ca/labs/beta/Software/AveRNA.

Increasing Prediction the Original Final Year Project of Student Using Genetic Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saragih, Rijois Iboy Erwin; Turnip, Mardi; Sitanggang, Delima; Aritonang, Mendarissan; Harianja, Eva

2018-04-01

Final year project is very important forgraduation study of a student. Unfortunately, many students are not seriouslydidtheir final projects. Many of studentsask for someone to do it for them. In this paper, an application of genetic algorithms to predict the original final year project of a studentis proposed. In the simulation, the data of the final project for the last 5 years is collected. The genetic algorithm has several operators namely population, selection, crossover, and mutation. The result suggest that genetic algorithm can do better prediction than other comparable model. Experimental results of predicting showed that 70% was more accurate than the previous researched.

CAT-PUMA: CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiajia; Ye, Yudong; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Yuming; Erdélyi, Robert

2018-04-01

CAT-PUMA (CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms) quickly and accurately predicts the arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) of CME arrival time. The software was trained via detailed analysis of CME features and solar wind parameters using 182 previously observed geo-effective partial-/full-halo CMEs and uses algorithms of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) to make its predictions, which can be made within minutes of providing the necessary input parameters of a CME.

A low computation cost method for seizure prediction.

PubMed

Zhang, Yanli; Zhou, Weidong; Yuan, Qi; Wu, Qi

2014-10-01

The dynamic changes of electroencephalograph (EEG) signals in the period prior to epileptic seizures play a major role in the seizure prediction. This paper proposes a low computation seizure prediction algorithm that combines a fractal dimension with a machine learning algorithm. The presented seizure prediction algorithm extracts the Higuchi fractal dimension (HFD) of EEG signals as features to classify the patient's preictal or interictal state with Bayesian linear discriminant analysis (BLDA) as a classifier. The outputs of BLDA are smoothed by a Kalman filter for reducing possible sporadic and isolated false alarms and then the final prediction results are produced using a thresholding procedure. The algorithm was evaluated on the intracranial EEG recordings of 21 patients in the Freiburg EEG database. For seizure occurrence period of 30 min and 50 min, our algorithm obtained an average sensitivity of 86.95% and 89.33%, an average false prediction rate of 0.20/h, and an average prediction time of 24.47 min and 39.39 min, respectively. The results confirm that the changes of HFD can serve as a precursor of ictal activities and be used for distinguishing between interictal and preictal epochs. Both HFD and BLDA classifier have a low computational complexity. All of these make the proposed algorithm suitable for real-time seizure prediction. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genome-scale fluxes predicted under the guidance of enzyme abundance using a novel hyper-cube shrink algorithm.

PubMed

Xie, Zhengwei; Zhang, Tianyu; Ouyang, Qi

2018-02-01

One of the long-expected goals of genome-scale metabolic modelling is to evaluate the influence of the perturbed enzymes on flux distribution. Both ordinary differential equation (ODE) models and constraint-based models, like Flux balance analysis (FBA), lack the capacity to perform metabolic control analysis (MCA) for large-scale networks. In this study, we developed a hyper-cube shrink algorithm (HCSA) to incorporate the enzymatic properties into the FBA model by introducing a pseudo reaction V constrained by enzymatic parameters. Our algorithm uses the enzymatic information quantitatively rather than qualitatively. We first demonstrate the concept by applying HCSA to a simple three-node network, whereby we obtained a good correlation between flux and enzyme abundance. We then validate its prediction by comparison with ODE and with a synthetic network producing voilacein and analogues in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We show that HCSA can mimic the state-state results of ODE. Finally, we show its capability of predicting the flux distribution in genome-scale networks by applying it to sporulation in yeast. We show the ability of HCSA to operate without biomass flux and perform MCA to determine rate-limiting reactions. Algorithm was implemented by Matlab and C ++. The code is available at https://github.com/kekegg/HCSA. xiezhengwei@hsc.pku.edu.cn or qi@pku.edu.cn. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Design of a final approach spacing tool for TRACON air traffic control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Thomas J.; Erzberger, Heinz; Bergeron, Hugh

1989-01-01

This paper describes an automation tool that assists air traffic controllers in the Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) Facilities in providing safe and efficient sequencing and spacing of arrival traffic. The automation tool, referred to as the Final Approach Spacing Tool (FAST), allows the controller to interactively choose various levels of automation and advisory information ranging from predicted time errors to speed and heading advisories for controlling time error. FAST also uses a timeline to display current scheduling and sequencing information for all aircraft in the TRACON airspace. FAST combines accurate predictive algorithms and state-of-the-art mouse and graphical interface technology to present advisory information to the controller. Furthermore, FAST exchanges various types of traffic information and communicates with automation tools being developed for the Air Route Traffic Control Center. Thus it is part of an integrated traffic management system for arrival traffic at major terminal areas.

An evaluation of volume-based morphometry for prediction of mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease

PubMed Central

Schmitter, Daniel; Roche, Alexis; Maréchal, Bénédicte; Ribes, Delphine; Abdulkadir, Ahmed; Bach-Cuadra, Meritxell; Daducci, Alessandro; Granziera, Cristina; Klöppel, Stefan; Maeder, Philippe; Meuli, Reto; Krueger, Gunnar

2014-01-01

Voxel-based morphometry from conventional T1-weighted images has proved effective to quantify Alzheimer's disease (AD) related brain atrophy and to enable fairly accurate automated classification of AD patients, mild cognitive impaired patients (MCI) and elderly controls. Little is known, however, about the classification power of volume-based morphometry, where features of interest consist of a few brain structure volumes (e.g. hippocampi, lobes, ventricles) as opposed to hundreds of thousands of voxel-wise gray matter concentrations. In this work, we experimentally evaluate two distinct volume-based morphometry algorithms (FreeSurfer and an in-house algorithm called MorphoBox) for automatic disease classification on a standardized data set from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Results indicate that both algorithms achieve classification accuracy comparable to the conventional whole-brain voxel-based morphometry pipeline using SPM for AD vs elderly controls and MCI vs controls, and higher accuracy for classification of AD vs MCI and early vs late AD converters, thereby demonstrating the potential of volume-based morphometry to assist diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease. PMID:25429357

A comparative study of clonal selection algorithm for effluent removal forecasting in septic sludge treatment plant.

PubMed

Chun, Ting Sie; Malek, M A; Ismail, Amelia Ritahani

2015-01-01

The development of effluent removal prediction is crucial in providing a planning tool necessary for the future development and the construction of a septic sludge treatment plant (SSTP), especially in the developing countries. In order to investigate the expected functionality of the required standard, the prediction of the effluent quality, namely biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand and total suspended solid of an SSTP was modelled using an artificial intelligence approach. In this paper, we adopt the clonal selection algorithm (CSA) to set up a prediction model, with a well-established method - namely the least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM) as a baseline model. The test results of the case study showed that the prediction of the CSA-based SSTP model worked well and provided model performance as satisfactory as the LS-SVM model. The CSA approach shows that fewer control and training parameters are required for model simulation as compared with the LS-SVM approach. The ability of a CSA approach in resolving limited data samples, non-linear sample function and multidimensional pattern recognition makes it a powerful tool in modelling the prediction of effluent removals in an SSTP.

A controlled variation scheme for convection treatment in pressure-based algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shyy, Wei; Thakur, Siddharth; Tucker, Kevin

1993-01-01

Convection effect and source terms are two primary sources of difficulties in computing turbulent reacting flows typically encountered in propulsion devices. The present work intends to elucidate the individual as well as the collective roles of convection and source terms in the fluid flow equations, and to devise appropriate treatments and implementations to improve our current capability of predicting such flows. A controlled variation scheme (CVS) has been under development in the context of a pressure-based algorithm, which has the characteristics of adaptively regulating the amount of numerical diffusivity, relative to central difference scheme, according to the variation in local flow field. Both the basic concepts and a pragmatic assessment will be presented to highlight the status of this work.

Aperiodic Robust Model Predictive Control for Constrained Continuous-Time Nonlinear Systems: An Event-Triggered Approach.

PubMed

Liu, Changxin; Gao, Jian; Li, Huiping; Xu, Demin

2018-05-01

The event-triggered control is a promising solution to cyber-physical systems, such as networked control systems, multiagent systems, and large-scale intelligent systems. In this paper, we propose an event-triggered model predictive control (MPC) scheme for constrained continuous-time nonlinear systems with bounded disturbances. First, a time-varying tightened state constraint is computed to achieve robust constraint satisfaction, and an event-triggered scheduling strategy is designed in the framework of dual-mode MPC. Second, the sufficient conditions for ensuring feasibility and closed-loop robust stability are developed, respectively. We show that robust stability can be ensured and communication load can be reduced with the proposed MPC algorithm. Finally, numerical simulations and comparison studies are performed to verify the theoretical results.

Development and Validation of an Algorithm to Identify Patients with Multiple Myeloma Using Administrative Claims Data.

PubMed

Princic, Nicole; Gregory, Chris; Willson, Tina; Mahue, Maya; Felici, Diana; Werther, Winifred; Lenhart, Gregory; Foley, Kathleen A

2016-01-01

The objective was to expand on prior work by developing and validating a new algorithm to identify multiple myeloma (MM) patients in administrative claims. Two files were constructed to select MM cases from MarketScan Oncology Electronic Medical Records (EMR) and controls from the MarketScan Primary Care EMR during January 1, 2000-March 31, 2014. Patients were linked to MarketScan claims databases, and files were merged. Eligible cases were age ≥18, had a diagnosis and visit for MM in the Oncology EMR, and were continuously enrolled in claims for ≥90 days preceding and ≥30 days after diagnosis. Controls were age ≥18, had ≥12 months of overlap in claims enrollment (observation period) in the Primary Care EMR and ≥1 claim with an ICD-9-CM diagnosis code of MM (203.0×) during that time. Controls were excluded if they had chemotherapy; stem cell transplant; or text documentation of MM in the EMR during the observation period. A split sample was used to develop and validate algorithms. A maximum of 180 days prior to and following each MM diagnosis was used to identify events in the diagnostic process. Of 20 algorithms explored, the baseline algorithm of 2 MM diagnoses and the 3 best performing were validated. Values for sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) were calculated. Three claims-based algorithms were validated with ~10% improvement in PPV (87-94%) over prior work (81%) and the baseline algorithm (76%) and can be considered for future research. Consistent with prior work, it was found that MM diagnoses before and after tests were needed.

Predictive minimum description length principle approach to inferring gene regulatory networks.

PubMed

Chaitankar, Vijender; Zhang, Chaoyang; Ghosh, Preetam; Gong, Ping; Perkins, Edward J; Deng, Youping

2011-01-01

Reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks using information theory models has received much attention due to its simplicity, low computational cost, and capability of inferring large networks. One of the major problems with information theory models is to determine the threshold that defines the regulatory relationships between genes. The minimum description length (MDL) principle has been implemented to overcome this problem. The description length of the MDL principle is the sum of model length and data encoding length. A user-specified fine tuning parameter is used as control mechanism between model and data encoding, but it is difficult to find the optimal parameter. In this work, we propose a new inference algorithm that incorporates mutual information (MI), conditional mutual information (CMI), and predictive minimum description length (PMDL) principle to infer gene regulatory networks from DNA microarray data. In this algorithm, the information theoretic quantities MI and CMI determine the regulatory relationships between genes and the PMDL principle method attempts to determine the best MI threshold without the need of a user-specified fine tuning parameter. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated using both synthetic time series data sets and a biological time series data set (Saccharomyces cerevisiae). The results show that the proposed algorithm produced fewer false edges and significantly improved the precision when compared to existing MDL algorithm.

Mapping the EORTC QLQ-C30 onto the EQ-5D-3L: assessing the external validity of existing mapping algorithms.

PubMed

Doble, Brett; Lorgelly, Paula

2016-04-01

To determine the external validity of existing mapping algorithms for predicting EQ-5D-3L utility values from EORTC QLQ-C30 responses and to establish their generalizability in different types of cancer. A main analysis (pooled) sample of 3560 observations (1727 patients) and two disease severity patient samples (496 and 93 patients) with repeated observations over time from Cancer 2015 were used to validate the existing algorithms. Errors were calculated between observed and predicted EQ-5D-3L utility values using a single pooled sample and ten pooled tumour type-specific samples. Predictive accuracy was assessed using mean absolute error (MAE) and standardized root-mean-squared error (RMSE). The association between observed and predicted EQ-5D utility values and other covariates across the distribution was tested using quantile regression. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated using observed and predicted values to test responsiveness. Ten 'preferred' mapping algorithms were identified. Two algorithms estimated via response mapping and ordinary least-squares regression using dummy variables performed well on number of validation criteria, including accurate prediction of the best and worst QLQ-C30 health states, predicted values within the EQ-5D tariff range, relatively small MAEs and RMSEs, and minimal differences between estimated QALYs. Comparison of predictive accuracy across ten tumour type-specific samples highlighted that algorithms are relatively insensitive to grouping by tumour type and affected more by differences in disease severity. Two of the 'preferred' mapping algorithms suggest more accurate predictions, but limitations exist. We recommend extensive scenario analyses if mapped utilities are used in cost-utility analyses.

Complexity control algorithm based on adaptive mode selection for interframe coding in high efficiency video coding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Gang; Yang, Bing; Zhang, Xiaoyun; Gao, Zhiyong

2017-07-01

The latest high efficiency video coding (HEVC) standard significantly increases the encoding complexity for improving its coding efficiency. Due to the limited computational capability of handheld devices, complexity constrained video coding has drawn great attention in recent years. A complexity control algorithm based on adaptive mode selection is proposed for interframe coding in HEVC. Considering the direct proportionality between encoding time and computational complexity, the computational complexity is measured in terms of encoding time. First, complexity is mapped to a target in terms of prediction modes. Then, an adaptive mode selection algorithm is proposed for the mode decision process. Specifically, the optimal mode combination scheme that is chosen through offline statistics is developed at low complexity. If the complexity budget has not been used up, an adaptive mode sorting method is employed to further improve coding efficiency. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm achieves a very large complexity control range (as low as 10%) for the HEVC encoder while maintaining good rate-distortion performance. For the lowdelayP condition, compared with the direct resource allocation method and the state-of-the-art method, an average gain of 0.63 and 0.17 dB in BDPSNR is observed for 18 sequences when the target complexity is around 40%.

Developing a dengue forecast model using machine learning: A case study in China.

PubMed

Guo, Pi; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Qin; Wang, Li; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zhang, Qingying; Luo, Ganfeng; Li, Zhihao; He, Jianfeng; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

2017-10-01

In China, dengue remains an important public health issue with expanded areas and increased incidence recently. Accurate and timely forecasts of dengue incidence in China are still lacking. We aimed to use the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to develop an accurate predictive model of dengue. Weekly dengue cases, Baidu search queries and climate factors (mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) during 2011-2014 in Guangdong were gathered. A dengue search index was constructed for developing the predictive models in combination with climate factors. The observed year and week were also included in the models to control for the long-term trend and seasonality. Several machine learning algorithms, including the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm, step-down linear regression model, gradient boosted regression tree algorithm (GBM), negative binomial regression model (NBM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) linear regression model and generalized additive model (GAM), were used as candidate models to predict dengue incidence. Performance and goodness of fit of the models were assessed using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and R-squared measures. The residuals of the models were examined using the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function analyses to check the validity of the models. The models were further validated using dengue surveillance data from five other provinces. The epidemics during the last 12 weeks and the peak of the 2014 large outbreak were accurately forecasted by the SVR model selected by a cross-validation technique. Moreover, the SVR model had the consistently smallest prediction error rates for tracking the dynamics of dengue and forecasting the outbreaks in other areas in China. The proposed SVR model achieved a superior performance in comparison with other forecasting techniques assessed in this study. The findings can help the government and community respond early to dengue epidemics.

A Systematic Investigation of Computation Models for Predicting Adverse Drug Reactions (ADRs)

PubMed Central

Kuang, Qifan; Wang, MinQi; Li, Rong; Dong, YongCheng; Li, Yizhou; Li, Menglong

2014-01-01

Background Early and accurate identification of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) is critically important for drug development and clinical safety. Computer-aided prediction of ADRs has attracted increasing attention in recent years, and many computational models have been proposed. However, because of the lack of systematic analysis and comparison of the different computational models, there remain limitations in designing more effective algorithms and selecting more useful features. There is therefore an urgent need to review and analyze previous computation models to obtain general conclusions that can provide useful guidance to construct more effective computational models to predict ADRs. Principal Findings In the current study, the main work is to compare and analyze the performance of existing computational methods to predict ADRs, by implementing and evaluating additional algorithms that have been earlier used for predicting drug targets. Our results indicated that topological and intrinsic features were complementary to an extent and the Jaccard coefficient had an important and general effect on the prediction of drug-ADR associations. By comparing the structure of each algorithm, final formulas of these algorithms were all converted to linear model in form, based on this finding we propose a new algorithm called the general weighted profile method and it yielded the best overall performance among the algorithms investigated in this paper. Conclusion Several meaningful conclusions and useful findings regarding the prediction of ADRs are provided for selecting optimal features and algorithms. PMID:25180585

Predictive control of a chaotic permanent magnet synchronous generator in a wind turbine system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manal, Messadi; Adel, Mellit; Karim, Kemih; Malek, Ghanes

2015-01-01

This paper investigates how to address the chaos problem in a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) in a wind turbine system. Predictive control approach is proposed to suppress chaotic behavior and make operating stable; the advantage of this method is that it can only be applied to one state of the wind turbine system. The use of the genetic algorithms to estimate the optimal parameter values of the wind turbine leads to maximization of the power generation. Moreover, some simulation results are included to visualize the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method. Project supported by the CMEP-TASSILI Project (Grant No. 14MDU920).

A fuzzy logic approach to control anaerobic digestion.

PubMed

Domnanovich, A M; Strik, D P; Zani, L; Pfeiffer, B; Karlovits, M; Braun, R; Holubar, P

2003-01-01

One of the goals of the EU-Project AMONCO (Advanced Prediction, Monitoring and Controlling of Anaerobic Digestion Process Behaviour towards Biogas Usage in Fuel Cells) is to create a control tool for the anaerobic digestion process, which predicts the volumetric organic loading rate (Bv) for the next day, to obtain a high biogas quality and production. The biogas should contain a high methane concentration (over 50%) and a low concentration of components toxic for fuel cells, e.g. hydrogen sulphide, siloxanes, ammonia and mercaptanes. For producing data to test the control tool, four 20 l anaerobic Continuously Stirred Tank Reactors (CSTR) are operated. For controlling two systems were investigated: a pure fuzzy logic system and a hybrid-system which contains a fuzzy based reactor condition calculation and a hierachial neural net in a cascade of optimisation algorithms.

Lithium-ion battery cell-level control using constrained model predictive control and equivalent circuit models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xavier, MA; Trimboli, MS

This paper introduces a novel application of model predictive control (MPC) to cell-level charging of a lithium-ion battery utilizing an equivalent circuit model of battery dynamics. The approach employs a modified form of the MPC algorithm that caters for direct feed-though signals in order to model near-instantaneous battery ohmic resistance. The implementation utilizes a 2nd-order equivalent circuit discrete-time state-space model based on actual cell parameters; the control methodology is used to compute a fast charging profile that respects input, output, and state constraints. Results show that MPC is well-suited to the dynamics of the battery control problem and further suggestmore » significant performance improvements might be achieved by extending the result to electrochemical models. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.« less

Protein docking prediction using predicted protein-protein interface.

PubMed

Li, Bin; Kihara, Daisuke

2012-01-10

Many important cellular processes are carried out by protein complexes. To provide physical pictures of interacting proteins, many computational protein-protein prediction methods have been developed in the past. However, it is still difficult to identify the correct docking complex structure within top ranks among alternative conformations. We present a novel protein docking algorithm that utilizes imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction for guiding protein docking. Since the accuracy of protein binding site prediction varies depending on cases, the challenge is to develop a method which does not deteriorate but improves docking results by using a binding site prediction which may not be 100% accurate. The algorithm, named PI-LZerD (using Predicted Interface with Local 3D Zernike descriptor-based Docking algorithm), is based on a pair wise protein docking prediction algorithm, LZerD, which we have developed earlier. PI-LZerD starts from performing docking prediction using the provided protein-protein binding interface prediction as constraints, which is followed by the second round of docking with updated docking interface information to further improve docking conformation. Benchmark results on bound and unbound cases show that PI-LZerD consistently improves the docking prediction accuracy as compared with docking without using binding site prediction or using the binding site prediction as post-filtering. We have developed PI-LZerD, a pairwise docking algorithm, which uses imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction to improve docking accuracy. PI-LZerD consistently showed better prediction accuracy over alternative methods in the series of benchmark experiments including docking using actual docking interface site predictions as well as unbound docking cases.

Pitch-Learning Algorithm For Speech Encoders

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhaskar, B. R. Udaya

1988-01-01

Adaptive algorithm detects and corrects errors in sequence of estimates of pitch period of speech. Algorithm operates in conjunction with techniques used to estimate pitch period. Used in such parametric and hybrid speech coders as linear predictive coders and adaptive predictive coders.

Adaptive Trajectory Prediction Algorithm for Climbing Flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Charles Alexander; Thipphavong, David P.; Erzberger, Heinz

2012-01-01

Aircraft climb trajectories are difficult to predict, and large errors in these predictions reduce the potential operational benefits of some advanced features for NextGen. The algorithm described in this paper improves climb trajectory prediction accuracy by adjusting trajectory predictions based on observed track data. It utilizes rate-of-climb and airspeed measurements derived from position data to dynamically adjust the aircraft weight modeled for trajectory predictions. In simulations with weight uncertainty, the algorithm is able to adapt to within 3 percent of the actual gross weight within two minutes of the initial adaptation. The root-mean-square of altitude errors for five-minute predictions was reduced by 73 percent. Conflict detection performance also improved, with a 15 percent reduction in missed alerts and a 10 percent reduction in false alerts. In a simulation with climb speed capture intent and weight uncertainty, the algorithm improved climb trajectory prediction accuracy by up to 30 percent and conflict detection performance, reducing missed and false alerts by up to 10 percent.

Economic Model Predictive Control of Bihormonal Artificial Pancreas System Based on Switching Control and Dynamic R-parameter.

PubMed

Tang, Fengna; Wang, Youqing

2017-11-01

Blood glucose (BG) regulation is a long-term task for people with diabetes. In recent years, more and more researchers have attempted to achieve automated regulation of BG using automatic control algorithms, called the artificial pancreas (AP) system. In clinical practice, it is equally important to guarantee the treatment effect and reduce the treatment costs. The main motivation of this study is to reduce the cure burden. The dynamic R-parameter economic model predictive control (R-EMPC) is chosen to regulate the delivery rates of exogenous hormones (insulin and glucagon). It uses particle swarm optimization (PSO) to optimize the economic cost function and the switching logic between insulin delivery and glucagon delivery is designed based on switching control theory. The proposed method is first tested on the standard subject; the result is compared with the switching PID and the switching MPC. The effect of the dynamic R-parameter on improving the control performance is illustrated by comparing the results of the EMPC and the R-EMPC. Finally, the robustness tests on meal change (size and timing), hormone sensitivity (insulin and glucagon), and subject variability are performed. All results show that the proposed method can improve the control performance and reduce the economic costs. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm on improving the tracking performance, enhancing robustness, and reducing economic costs. The method proposed in this study owns great worth in practical application.

Subarachnoid hemorrhage admissions retrospectively identified using a prediction model

PubMed Central

McIntyre, Lauralyn; Fergusson, Dean; Turgeon, Alexis; dos Santos, Marlise P.; Lum, Cheemun; Chassé, Michaël; Sinclair, John; Forster, Alan; van Walraven, Carl

2016-01-01

Objective: To create an accurate prediction model using variables collected in widely available health administrative data records to identify hospitalizations for primary subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods: A previously established complete cohort of consecutive primary SAH patients was combined with a random sample of control hospitalizations. Chi-square recursive partitioning was used to derive and internally validate a model to predict the probability that a patient had primary SAH (due to aneurysm or arteriovenous malformation) using health administrative data. Results: A total of 10,322 hospitalizations with 631 having primary SAH (6.1%) were included in the study (5,122 derivation, 5,200 validation). In the validation patients, our recursive partitioning algorithm had a sensitivity of 96.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 93.9–98.0), a specificity of 99.8% (95% CI 99.6–99.9), and a positive likelihood ratio of 483 (95% CI 254–879). In this population, patients meeting criteria for the algorithm had a probability of 45% of truly having primary SAH. Conclusions: Routinely collected health administrative data can be used to accurately identify hospitalized patients with a high probability of having a primary SAH. This algorithm may allow, upon validation, an easy and accurate method to create validated cohorts of primary SAH from either ruptured aneurysm or arteriovenous malformation. PMID:27629096

Adaptive Inverse Control for Rotorcraft Vibration Reduction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacklin, Stephen A.

1985-01-01

This thesis extends the Least Mean Square (LMS) algorithm to solve the mult!ple-input, multiple-output problem of alleviating N/Rev (revolutions per minute by number of blades) helicopter fuselage vibration by means of adaptive inverse control. A frequency domain locally linear model is used to represent the transfer matrix relating the higher harmonic pitch control inputs to the harmonic vibration outputs to be controlled. By using the inverse matrix as the controller gain matrix, an adaptive inverse regulator is formed to alleviate the N/Rev vibration. The stability and rate of convergence properties of the extended LMS algorithm are discussed. It is shown that the stability ranges for the elements of the stability gain matrix are directly related to the eigenvalues of the vibration signal information matrix for the learning phase, but not for the control phase. The overall conclusion is that the LMS adaptive inverse control method can form a robust vibration control system, but will require some tuning of the input sensor gains, the stability gain matrix, and the amount of control relaxation to be used. The learning curve of the controller during the learning phase is shown to be quantitatively close to that predicted by averaging the learning curves of the normal modes. For higher order transfer matrices, a rough estimate of the inverse is needed to start the algorithm efficiently. The simulation results indicate that the factor which most influences LMS adaptive inverse control is the product of the control relaxation and the the stability gain matrix. A small stability gain matrix makes the controller less sensitive to relaxation selection, and permits faster and more stable vibration reduction, than by choosing the stability gain matrix large and the control relaxation term small. It is shown that the best selections of the stability gain matrix elements and the amount of control relaxation is basically a compromise between slow, stable convergence and fast convergence with increased possibility of unstable identification. In the simulation studies, the LMS adaptive inverse control algorithm is shown to be capable of adapting the inverse (controller) matrix to track changes in the flight conditions. The algorithm converges quickly for moderate disturbances, while taking longer for larger disturbances. Perfect knowledge of the inverse matrix is not required for good control of the N/Rev vibration. However it is shown that measurement noise will prevent the LMS adaptive inverse control technique from controlling the vibration, unless the signal averaging method presented is incorporated into the algorithm.

Predicting the continuum between corridors and barriers to animal movements using Step Selection Functions and Randomized Shortest Paths.

PubMed

Panzacchi, Manuela; Van Moorter, Bram; Strand, Olav; Saerens, Marco; Kivimäki, Ilkka; St Clair, Colleen C; Herfindal, Ivar; Boitani, Luigi

2016-01-01

The loss, fragmentation and degradation of habitat everywhere on Earth prompts increasing attention to identifying landscape features that support animal movement (corridors) or impedes it (barriers). Most algorithms used to predict corridors assume that animals move through preferred habitat either optimally (e.g. least cost path) or as random walkers (e.g. current models), but neither extreme is realistic. We propose that corridors and barriers are two sides of the same coin and that animals experience landscapes as spatiotemporally dynamic corridor-barrier continua connecting (separating) functional areas where individuals fulfil specific ecological processes. Based on this conceptual framework, we propose a novel methodological approach that uses high-resolution individual-based movement data to predict corridor-barrier continua with increased realism. Our approach consists of two innovations. First, we use step selection functions (SSF) to predict friction maps quantifying corridor-barrier continua for tactical steps between consecutive locations. Secondly, we introduce to movement ecology the randomized shortest path algorithm (RSP) which operates on friction maps to predict the corridor-barrier continuum for strategic movements between functional areas. By modulating the parameter Ѳ, which controls the trade-off between exploration and optimal exploitation of the environment, RSP bridges the gap between algorithms assuming optimal movements (when Ѳ approaches infinity, RSP is equivalent to LCP) or random walk (when Ѳ → 0, RSP → current models). Using this approach, we identify migration corridors for GPS-monitored wild reindeer (Rangifer t. tarandus) in Norway. We demonstrate that reindeer movement is best predicted by an intermediate value of Ѳ, indicative of a movement trade-off between optimization and exploration. Model calibration allows identification of a corridor-barrier continuum that closely fits empirical data and demonstrates that RSP outperforms models that assume either optimality or random walk. The proposed approach models the multiscale cognitive maps by which animals likely navigate real landscapes and generalizes the most common algorithms for identifying corridors. Because suboptimal, but non-random, movement strategies are likely widespread, our approach has the potential to predict more realistic corridor-barrier continua for a wide range of species. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

An enhanced deterministic K-Means clustering algorithm for cancer subtype prediction from gene expression data.

PubMed

Nidheesh, N; Abdul Nazeer, K A; Ameer, P M

2017-12-01

Clustering algorithms with steps involving randomness usually give different results on different executions for the same dataset. This non-deterministic nature of algorithms such as the K-Means clustering algorithm limits their applicability in areas such as cancer subtype prediction using gene expression data. It is hard to sensibly compare the results of such algorithms with those of other algorithms. The non-deterministic nature of K-Means is due to its random selection of data points as initial centroids. We propose an improved, density based version of K-Means, which involves a novel and systematic method for selecting initial centroids. The key idea of the algorithm is to select data points which belong to dense regions and which are adequately separated in feature space as the initial centroids. We compared the proposed algorithm to a set of eleven widely used single clustering algorithms and a prominent ensemble clustering algorithm which is being used for cancer data classification, based on the performances on a set of datasets comprising ten cancer gene expression datasets. The proposed algorithm has shown better overall performance than the others. There is a pressing need in the Biomedical domain for simple, easy-to-use and more accurate Machine Learning tools for cancer subtype prediction. The proposed algorithm is simple, easy-to-use and gives stable results. Moreover, it provides comparatively better predictions of cancer subtypes from gene expression data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the external validity of algorithms to estimate EQ-5D-3L from the WOMAC.

PubMed

Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A; Englund, Martin

2016-10-04

The use of mapping algorithms have been suggested as a solution to predict health utilities when no preference-based measure is included in the study. However, validity and predictive performance of these algorithms are highly variable and hence assessing the accuracy and validity of algorithms before use them in a new setting is of importance. The aim of the current study was to assess the predictive accuracy of three mapping algorithms to estimate the EQ-5D-3L from the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) among Swedish people with knee disorders. Two of these algorithms developed using ordinary least squares (OLS) models and one developed using mixture model. The data from 1078 subjects mean (SD) age 69.4 (7.2) years with frequent knee pain and/or knee osteoarthritis from the Malmö Osteoarthritis study in Sweden were used. The algorithms' performance was assessed using mean error, mean absolute error, and root mean squared error. Two types of prediction were estimated for mixture model: weighted average (WA), and conditional on estimated component (CEC). The overall mean was overpredicted by an OLS model and underpredicted by two other algorithms (P < 0.001). All predictions but the CEC predictions of mixture model had a narrower range than the observed scores (22 to 90 %). All algorithms suffered from overprediction for severe health states and underprediction for mild health states with lesser extent for mixture model. While the mixture model outperformed OLS models at the extremes of the EQ-5D-3D distribution, it underperformed around the center of the distribution. While algorithm based on mixture model reflected the distribution of EQ-5D-3L data more accurately compared with OLS models, all algorithms suffered from systematic bias. This calls for caution in applying these mapping algorithms in a new setting particularly in samples with milder knee problems than original sample. Assessing the impact of the choice of these algorithms on cost-effectiveness studies through sensitivity analysis is recommended.

Real-time stylistic prediction for whole-body human motions.

PubMed

Matsubara, Takamitsu; Hyon, Sang-Ho; Morimoto, Jun

2012-01-01

The ability to predict human motion is crucial in several contexts such as human tracking by computer vision and the synthesis of human-like computer graphics. Previous work has focused on off-line processes with well-segmented data; however, many applications such as robotics require real-time control with efficient computation. In this paper, we propose a novel approach called real-time stylistic prediction for whole-body human motions to satisfy these requirements. This approach uses a novel generative model to represent a whole-body human motion including rhythmic motion (e.g., walking) and discrete motion (e.g., jumping). The generative model is composed of a low-dimensional state (phase) dynamics and a two-factor observation model, allowing it to capture the diversity of motion styles in humans. A real-time adaptation algorithm was derived to estimate both state variables and style parameter of the model from non-stationary unlabeled sequential observations. Moreover, with a simple modification, the algorithm allows real-time adaptation even from incomplete (partial) observations. Based on the estimated state and style, a future motion sequence can be accurately predicted. In our implementation, it takes less than 15 ms for both adaptation and prediction at each observation. Our real-time stylistic prediction was evaluated for human walking, running, and jumping behaviors. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A link prediction approach to cancer drug sensitivity prediction.

PubMed

Turki, Turki; Wei, Zhi

2017-10-03

Predicting the response to a drug for cancer disease patients based on genomic information is an important problem in modern clinical oncology. This problem occurs in part because many available drug sensitivity prediction algorithms do not consider better quality cancer cell lines and the adoption of new feature representations; both lead to the accurate prediction of drug responses. By predicting accurate drug responses to cancer, oncologists gain a more complete understanding of the effective treatments for each patient, which is a core goal in precision medicine. In this paper, we model cancer drug sensitivity as a link prediction, which is shown to be an effective technique. We evaluate our proposed link prediction algorithms and compare them with an existing drug sensitivity prediction approach based on clinical trial data. The experimental results based on the clinical trial data show the stability of our link prediction algorithms, which yield the highest area under the ROC curve (AUC) and are statistically significant. We propose a link prediction approach to obtain new feature representation. Compared with an existing approach, the results show that incorporating the new feature representation to the link prediction algorithms has significantly improved the performance.

Closed Loop System Identification with Genetic Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whorton, Mark S.

2004-01-01

High performance control design for a flexible space structure is challenging since high fidelity plant models are di.cult to obtain a priori. Uncertainty in the control design models typically require a very robust, low performance control design which must be tuned on-orbit to achieve the required performance. Closed loop system identi.cation is often required to obtain a multivariable open loop plant model based on closed-loop response data. In order to provide an accurate initial plant model to guarantee convergence for standard local optimization methods, this paper presents a global parameter optimization method using genetic algorithms. A minimal representation of the state space dynamics is employed to mitigate the non-uniqueness and over-parameterization of general state space realizations. This control-relevant system identi.cation procedure stresses the joint nature of the system identi.cation and control design problem by seeking to obtain a model that minimizes the di.erence between the predicted and actual closed-loop performance.

A support vector machine based control application to the experimental three-tank system.

PubMed

Iplikci, Serdar

2010-07-01

This paper presents a support vector machine (SVM) approach to generalized predictive control (GPC) of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) nonlinear systems. The possession of higher generalization potential and at the same time avoidance of getting stuck into the local minima have motivated us to employ SVM algorithms for modeling MIMO systems. Based on the SVM model, detailed and compact formulations for calculating predictions and gradient information, which are used in the computation of the optimal control action, are given in the paper. The proposed MIMO SVM-based GPC method has been verified on an experimental three-tank liquid level control system. Experimental results have shown that the proposed method can handle the control task successfully for different reference trajectories. Moreover, a detailed discussion on data gathering, model selection and effects of the control parameters have been given in this paper. 2010 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on disease vectors through ecological niche modelling.

PubMed

Carvalho, B M; Rangel, E F; Vale, M M

2017-08-01

Vector-borne diseases are exceptionally sensitive to climate change. Predicting vector occurrence in specific regions is a challenge that disease control programs must meet in order to plan and execute control interventions and climate change adaptation measures. Recently, an increasing number of scientific articles have applied ecological niche modelling (ENM) to study medically important insects and ticks. With a myriad of available methods, it is challenging to interpret their results. Here we review the future projections of disease vectors produced by ENM, and assess their trends and limitations. Tropical regions are currently occupied by many vector species; but future projections indicate poleward expansions of suitable climates for their occurrence and, therefore, entomological surveillance must be continuously done in areas projected to become suitable. The most commonly applied methods were the maximum entropy algorithm, generalized linear models, the genetic algorithm for rule set prediction, and discriminant analysis. Lack of consideration of the full-known current distribution of the target species on models with future projections has led to questionable predictions. We conclude that there is no ideal 'gold standard' method to model vector distributions; researchers are encouraged to test different methods for the same data. Such practice is becoming common in the field of ENM, but still lags behind in studies of disease vectors.

Performance Assessment of Model-Based Optimal Feedforward and Feedback Current Profile Control in NSTX-U using the TRANSP Code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ilhan, Z.; Wehner, W. P.; Schuster, E.; Boyer, M. D.; Gates, D. A.; Gerhardt, S.; Menard, J.

2015-11-01

Active control of the toroidal current density profile is crucial to achieve and maintain high-performance, MHD-stable plasma operation in NSTX-U. A first-principles-driven, control-oriented model describing the temporal evolution of the current profile has been proposed earlier by combining the magnetic diffusion equation with empirical correlations obtained at NSTX-U for the electron density, electron temperature, and non-inductive current drives. A feedforward + feedback control scheme for the requlation of the current profile is constructed by embedding the proposed nonlinear, physics-based model into the control design process. Firstly, nonlinear optimization techniques are used to design feedforward actuator trajectories that steer the plasma to a desired operating state with the objective of supporting the traditional trial-and-error experimental process of advanced scenario planning. Secondly, a feedback control algorithm to track a desired current profile evolution is developed with the goal of adding robustness to the overall control scheme. The effectiveness of the combined feedforward + feedback control algorithm for current profile regulation is tested in predictive simulations carried out in TRANSP. Supported by PPPL.

New algorithm for toric intraocular lens power calculation considering the posterior corneal astigmatism.

PubMed

Canovas, Carmen; Alarcon, Aixa; Rosén, Robert; Kasthurirangan, Sanjeev; Ma, Joseph J K; Koch, Douglas D; Piers, Patricia

2018-02-01

To assess the accuracy of toric intraocular lens (IOL) power calculations of a new algorithm that incorporates the effect of posterior corneal astigmatism (PCA). Abbott Medical Optics, Inc., Groningen, the Netherlands. Retrospective case report. In eyes implanted with toric IOLs, the exact vergence formula of the Tecnis toric calculator was used to predict refractive astigmatism from preoperative biometry, surgeon-estimated surgically induced astigmatism (SIA), and implanted IOL power, with and without including the new PCA algorithm. For each calculation method, the error in predicted refractive astigmatism was calculated as the vector difference between the prediction and the actual refraction. Calculations were also made using postoperative keratometry (K) values to eliminate the potential effect of incorrect SIA estimates. The study comprised 274 eyes. The PCA algorithm significantly reduced the centroid error in predicted refractive astigmatism (P < .001). With the PCA algorithm, the centroid error reduced from 0.50 @ 1 to 0.19 @ 3 when using preoperative K values and from 0.30 @ 0 to 0.02 @ 84 when using postoperative K values. Patients who had anterior corneal against-the-rule, with-the-rule, and oblique astigmatism had improvement with the PCA algorithm. In addition, the PCA algorithm reduced the median absolute error in all groups (P < .001). The use of the new PCA algorithm decreased the error in the prediction of residual refractive astigmatism in eyes implanted with toric IOLs. Therefore, the new PCA algorithm, in combination with an exact vergence IOL power calculation formula, led to an increased predictability of toric IOL power. Copyright © 2018 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Claims Data to Predict Dependency in Activities of Daily Living as a Proxy for Frailty

PubMed Central

Faurot, Keturah R.; Funk, Michele Jonsson; Pate, Virginia; Brookhart, M. Alan; Patrick, Amanda; Hanson, Laura C.; Castillo, Wendy Camelo; Stürmer, Til

2014-01-01

Purpose Estimating drug effectiveness and safety among older adults in population-based studies using administrative healthcare claims can be hampered by unmeasured confounding due to frailty. A claims-based algorithm that identifies patients likely to be dependent, a proxy for frailty, may improve confounding control. Our objective was to develop an algorithm to predict dependency in activities of daily living (ADL) in a sample of Medicare beneficiaries. Methods Community-dwelling respondents to the 2006 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, >65 years old, with Medicare Part A, B, home health, and hospice claims were included. ADL dependency was defined as needing help with bathing, eating, walking, dressing, toileting, or transferring. Potential predictors were demographics, ICD-9 diagnosis/procedure and durable medical equipment codes for frailty-associated conditions. Multivariable logistic regression was to predict ADL dependency. Cox models estimated hazard ratios for death as a function of observed and predicted ADL dependency. Results Of 6391 respondents, 57% were female, 88% white, and 38% were ≥80. The prevalence of ADL dependency was 9.5%. Strong predictors of ADL dependency were charges for a home hospital bed (OR=5.44, 95% CI=3.28–9.03) and wheelchair (OR=3.91, 95% CI=2.78–5.51). The c-statistic of the final model was 0.845. Model-predicted ADL dependency of 20% or greater was associated with a hazard ratio for death of 3.19 (95% CI: 2.78, 3.68). Conclusions An algorithm for predicting ADL dependency using healthcare claims was developed to measure some aspects of frailty. Accounting for variation in frailty among older adults could lead to more valid conclusions about treatment use, safety, and effectiveness. PMID:25335470

Predicting missing links in complex networks based on common neighbors and distance

PubMed Central

Yang, Jinxuan; Zhang, Xiao-Dong

2016-01-01

The algorithms based on common neighbors metric to predict missing links in complex networks are very popular, but most of these algorithms do not account for missing links between nodes with no common neighbors. It is not accurate enough to reconstruct networks by using these methods in some cases especially when between nodes have less common neighbors. We proposed in this paper a new algorithm based on common neighbors and distance to improve accuracy of link prediction. Our proposed algorithm makes remarkable effect in predicting the missing links between nodes with no common neighbors and performs better than most existing currently used methods for a variety of real-world networks without increasing complexity. PMID:27905526

Adaptive Fault Detection on Liquid Propulsion Systems with Virtual Sensors: Algorithms and Architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matthews, Bryan L.; Srivastava, Ashok N.

2010-01-01

Prior to the launch of STS-119 NASA had completed a study of an issue in the flow control valve (FCV) in the Main Propulsion System of the Space Shuttle using an adaptive learning method known as Virtual Sensors. Virtual Sensors are a class of algorithms that estimate the value of a time series given other potentially nonlinearly correlated sensor readings. In the case presented here, the Virtual Sensors algorithm is based on an ensemble learning approach and takes sensor readings and control signals as input to estimate the pressure in a subsystem of the Main Propulsion System. Our results indicate that this method can detect faults in the FCV at the time when they occur. We use the standard deviation of the predictions of the ensemble as a measure of uncertainty in the estimate. This uncertainty estimate was crucial to understanding the nature and magnitude of transient characteristics during startup of the engine. This paper overviews the Virtual Sensors algorithm and discusses results on a comprehensive set of Shuttle missions and also discusses the architecture necessary for deploying such algorithms in a real-time, closed-loop system or a human-in-the-loop monitoring system. These results were presented at a Flight Readiness Review of the Space Shuttle in early 2009.

BRCA-Monet: a breast cancer specific drug treatment mode-of-action network for treatment effective prediction using large scale microarray database

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Connectivity map (cMap) is a recent developed dataset and algorithm for uncovering and understanding the treatment effect of small molecules on different cancer cell lines. It is widely used but there are still remaining challenges for accurate predictions. Method Here, we propose BRCA-MoNet, a network of drug mode of action (MoA) specific to breast cancer, which is constructed based on the cMap dataset. A drug signature selection algorithm fitting the characteristic of cMap data, a quality control scheme as well as a novel query algorithm based on BRCA-MoNet are developed for more effective prediction of drug effects. Result BRCA-MoNet was applied to three independent data sets obtained from the GEO database: Estrodial treated MCF7 cell line, BMS-754807 treated MCF7 cell line, and a breast cancer patient microarray dataset. In the first case, BRCA-MoNet could identify drug MoAs likely to share same and reverse treatment effect. In the second case, the result demonstrated the potential of BRCA-MoNet to reposition drugs and predict treatment effects for drugs not in cMap data. In the third case, a possible procedure of personalized drug selection is showcased. Conclusions The results clearly demonstrated that the proposed BRCA-MoNet approach can provide increased prediction power to cMap and thus will be useful for identification of new therapeutic candidates. Website: The web based application is developed and can be access through the following link http://compgenomics.utsa.edu/BRCAMoNet/ PMID:24564956

An improved shuffled frog leaping algorithm based evolutionary framework for currency exchange rate prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dash, Rajashree

2017-11-01

Forecasting purchasing power of one currency with respect to another currency is always an interesting topic in the field of financial time series prediction. Despite the existence of several traditional and computational models for currency exchange rate forecasting, there is always a need for developing simpler and more efficient model, which will produce better prediction capability. In this paper, an evolutionary framework is proposed by using an improved shuffled frog leaping (ISFL) algorithm with a computationally efficient functional link artificial neural network (CEFLANN) for prediction of currency exchange rate. The model is validated by observing the monthly prediction measures obtained for three currency exchange data sets such as USD/CAD, USD/CHF, and USD/JPY accumulated within same period of time. The model performance is also compared with two other evolutionary learning techniques such as Shuffled frog leaping algorithm and Particle Swarm optimization algorithm. Practical analysis of results suggest that, the proposed model developed using the ISFL algorithm with CEFLANN network is a promising predictor model for currency exchange rate prediction compared to other models included in the study.

3D Protein structure prediction with genetic tabu search algorithm

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Protein structure prediction (PSP) has important applications in different fields, such as drug design, disease prediction, and so on. In protein structure prediction, there are two important issues. The first one is the design of the structure model and the second one is the design of the optimization technology. Because of the complexity of the realistic protein structure, the structure model adopted in this paper is a simplified model, which is called off-lattice AB model. After the structure model is assumed, optimization technology is needed for searching the best conformation of a protein sequence based on the assumed structure model. However, PSP is an NP-hard problem even if the simplest model is assumed. Thus, many algorithms have been developed to solve the global optimization problem. In this paper, a hybrid algorithm, which combines genetic algorithm (GA) and tabu search (TS) algorithm, is developed to complete this task. Results In order to develop an efficient optimization algorithm, several improved strategies are developed for the proposed genetic tabu search algorithm. The combined use of these strategies can improve the efficiency of the algorithm. In these strategies, tabu search introduced into the crossover and mutation operators can improve the local search capability, the adoption of variable population size strategy can maintain the diversity of the population, and the ranking selection strategy can improve the possibility of an individual with low energy value entering into next generation. Experiments are performed with Fibonacci sequences and real protein sequences. Experimental results show that the lowest energy obtained by the proposed GATS algorithm is lower than that obtained by previous methods. Conclusions The hybrid algorithm has the advantages from both genetic algorithm and tabu search algorithm. It makes use of the advantage of multiple search points in genetic algorithm, and can overcome poor hill-climbing capability in the conventional genetic algorithm by using the flexible memory functions of TS. Compared with some previous algorithms, GATS algorithm has better performance in global optimization and can predict 3D protein structure more effectively. PMID:20522256

The Behavioral and Neural Mechanisms Underlying the Tracking of Expertise

PubMed Central

Boorman, Erie D.; O’Doherty, John P.; Adolphs, Ralph; Rangel, Antonio

2013-01-01

Summary Evaluating the abilities of others is fundamental for successful economic and social behavior. We investigated the computational and neurobiological basis of ability tracking by designing an fMRI task that required participants to use and update estimates of both people and algorithms’ expertise through observation of their predictions. Behaviorally, we find a model-based algorithm characterized subject predictions better than several alternative models. Notably, when the agent’s prediction was concordant rather than discordant with the subject’s own likely prediction, participants credited people more than algorithms for correct predictions and penalized them less for incorrect predictions. Neurally, many components of the mentalizing network—medial prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate gyrus, temporoparietal junction, and precuneus—represented or updated expertise beliefs about both people and algorithms. Moreover, activity in lateral orbitofrontal and medial prefrontal cortex reflected behavioral differences in learning about people and algorithms. These findings provide basic insights into the neural basis of social learning. PMID:24360551

Prediction and Control of Network Cascade: Example of Power Grid or Networking Adaptability from WMD Disruption and Cascading Failures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chertkov, Michael

2012-07-24

The goal of the DTRA project is to develop a mathematical framework that will provide the fundamental understanding of network survivability, algorithms for detecting/inferring pre-cursors of abnormal network behaviors, and methods for network adaptability and self-healing from cascading failures.

A study on model fidelity for model predictive control-based obstacle avoidance in high-speed autonomous ground vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiechao; Jayakumar, Paramsothy; Stein, Jeffrey L.; Ersal, Tulga

2016-11-01

This paper investigates the level of model fidelity needed in order for a model predictive control (MPC)-based obstacle avoidance algorithm to be able to safely and quickly avoid obstacles even when the vehicle is close to its dynamic limits. The context of this work is large autonomous ground vehicles that manoeuvre at high speed within unknown, unstructured, flat environments and have significant vehicle dynamics-related constraints. Five different representations of vehicle dynamics models are considered: four variations of the two degrees-of-freedom (DoF) representation as lower fidelity models and a fourteen DoF representation with combined-slip Magic Formula tyre model as a higher fidelity model. It is concluded that the two DoF representation that accounts for tyre nonlinearities and longitudinal load transfer is necessary for the MPC-based obstacle avoidance algorithm in order to operate the vehicle at its limits within an environment that includes large obstacles. For less challenging environments, however, the two DoF representation with linear tyre model and constant axle loads is sufficient.

Controlling infectious disease through the targeted manipulation of contact network structure

PubMed Central

Gates, M. Carolyn; Woolhouse, Mark E.J.

2015-01-01

Individuals in human and animal populations are linked through dynamic contact networks with characteristic structural features that drive the epidemiology of directly transmissible infectious diseases. Using animal movement data from the British cattle industry as an example, this analysis explores whether disease dynamics can be altered by placing targeted restrictions on contact formation to reconfigure network topology. This was accomplished using a simple network generation algorithm that combined configuration wiring with stochastic block modelling techniques to preserve the weighted in- and out-degree of individual nodes (farms) as well as key demographic characteristics of the individual network connections (movement date, livestock market, and animal production type). We then tested a control strategy based on introducing additional constraints into the network generation algorithm to prevent farms with a high in-degree from selling cattle to farms with a high out-degree as these particular network connections are predicted to have a disproportionately strong role in spreading disease. Results from simple dynamic disease simulation models predicted significantly lower endemic disease prevalences on the trade restricted networks compared to the baseline generated networks. As expected, the relative magnitude of the predicted changes in endemic prevalence was greater for diseases with short infectious periods and low transmission probabilities. Overall, our study findings demonstrate that there is significant potential for controlling multiple infectious diseases simultaneously by manipulating networks to have more epidemiologically favourable topological configurations. Further research is needed to determine whether the economic and social benefits of controlling disease can justify the costs of restricting contact formation. PMID:26342238

Controlling infectious disease through the targeted manipulation of contact network structure.

PubMed

Gates, M Carolyn; Woolhouse, Mark E J

2015-09-01

Individuals in human and animal populations are linked through dynamic contact networks with characteristic structural features that drive the epidemiology of directly transmissible infectious diseases. Using animal movement data from the British cattle industry as an example, this analysis explores whether disease dynamics can be altered by placing targeted restrictions on contact formation to reconfigure network topology. This was accomplished using a simple network generation algorithm that combined configuration wiring with stochastic block modelling techniques to preserve the weighted in- and out-degree of individual nodes (farms) as well as key demographic characteristics of the individual network connections (movement date, livestock market, and animal production type). We then tested a control strategy based on introducing additional constraints into the network generation algorithm to prevent farms with a high in-degree from selling cattle to farms with a high out-degree as these particular network connections are predicted to have a disproportionately strong role in spreading disease. Results from simple dynamic disease simulation models predicted significantly lower endemic disease prevalences on the trade restricted networks compared to the baseline generated networks. As expected, the relative magnitude of the predicted changes in endemic prevalence was greater for diseases with short infectious periods and low transmission probabilities. Overall, our study findings demonstrate that there is significant potential for controlling multiple infectious diseases simultaneously by manipulating networks to have more epidemiologically favourable topological configurations. Further research is needed to determine whether the economic and social benefits of controlling disease can justify the costs of restricting contact formation. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A time series based sequence prediction algorithm to detect activities of daily living in smart home.

PubMed

Marufuzzaman, M; Reaz, M B I; Ali, M A M; Rahman, L F

2015-01-01

The goal of smart homes is to create an intelligent environment adapting the inhabitants need and assisting the person who needs special care and safety in their daily life. This can be reached by collecting the ADL (activities of daily living) data and further analysis within existing computing elements. In this research, a very recent algorithm named sequence prediction via enhanced episode discovery (SPEED) is modified and in order to improve accuracy time component is included. The modified SPEED or M-SPEED is a sequence prediction algorithm, which modified the previous SPEED algorithm by using time duration of appliance's ON-OFF states to decide the next state. M-SPEED discovered periodic episodes of inhabitant behavior, trained it with learned episodes, and made decisions based on the obtained knowledge. The results showed that M-SPEED achieves 96.8% prediction accuracy, which is better than other time prediction algorithms like PUBS, ALZ with temporal rules and the previous SPEED. Since human behavior shows natural temporal patterns, duration times can be used to predict future events more accurately. This inhabitant activity prediction system will certainly improve the smart homes by ensuring safety and better care for elderly and handicapped people.

Making predictions in a changing world-inference, uncertainty, and learning.

PubMed

O'Reilly, Jill X

2013-01-01

To function effectively, brains need to make predictions about their environment based on past experience, i.e., they need to learn about their environment. The algorithms by which learning occurs are of interest to neuroscientists, both in their own right (because they exist in the brain) and as a tool to model participants' incomplete knowledge of task parameters and hence, to better understand their behavior. This review focusses on a particular challenge for learning algorithms-how to match the rate at which they learn to the rate of change in the environment, so that they use as much observed data as possible whilst disregarding irrelevant, old observations. To do this algorithms must evaluate whether the environment is changing. We discuss the concepts of likelihood, priors and transition functions, and how these relate to change detection. We review expected and estimation uncertainty, and how these relate to change detection and learning rate. Finally, we consider the neural correlates of uncertainty and learning. We argue that the neural correlates of uncertainty bear a resemblance to neural systems that are active when agents actively explore their environments, suggesting that the mechanisms by which the rate of learning is set may be subject to top down control (in circumstances when agents actively seek new information) as well as bottom up control (by observations that imply change in the environment).

Robot tracking system improvements and visual calibration of orbiter position for radiator inspection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tonkay, Gregory

1990-01-01

The following separate topics are addressed: (1) improving a robotic tracking system; and (2) providing insights into orbiter position calibration for radiator inspection. The objective of the tracking system project was to provide the capability to track moving targets more accurately by adjusting parameters in the control system and implementing a predictive algorithm. A computer model was developed to emulate the tracking system. Using this model as a test bed, a self-tuning algorithm was developed to tune the system gains. The model yielded important findings concerning factors that affect the gains. The self-tuning algorithms will provide the concepts to write a program to automatically tune the gains in the real system. The section concerning orbiter position calibration provides a comparison to previous work that had been performed for plant growth. It provided the conceptualized routines required to visually determine the orbiter position and orientation. Furthermore, it identified the types of information which are required to flow between the robot controller and the vision system.

Event-Triggered Model Predictive Control for Embedded Artificial Pancreas Systems.

PubMed

Chakrabarty, Ankush; Zavitsanou, Stamatina; Doyle, Francis J; Dassau, Eyal

2018-03-01

The development of artificial pancreas (AP) technology for deployment in low-energy, embedded devices is contingent upon selecting an efficient control algorithm for regulating glucose in people with type 1 diabetes mellitus. In this paper, we aim to lower the energy consumption of the AP by reducing controller updates, that is, the number of times the decision-making algorithm is invoked to compute an appropriate insulin dose. Physiological insights into glucose management are leveraged to design an event-triggered model predictive controller (MPC) that operates efficiently, without compromising patient safety. The proposed event-triggered MPC is deployed on a wearable platform. Its robustness to latent hypoglycemia, model mismatch, and meal misinformation is tested, with and without meal announcement, on the full version of the US-FDA accepted UVA/Padova metabolic simulator. The event-based controller remains on for 18 h of 41 h in closed loop with unannounced meals, while maintaining glucose in 70-180 mg/dL for 25 h, compared to 27 h for a standard MPC controller. With meal announcement, the time in 70-180 mg/dL is almost identical, with the controller operating a mere 25.88% of the time in comparison with a standard MPC. A novel control architecture for AP systems enables safe glycemic regulation with reduced processor computations. Our proposed framework integrated seamlessly with a wide variety of popular MPC variants reported in AP research, customizes tradeoff between glycemic regulation and efficacy according to prior design specifications, and eliminates judicious prior selection of controller sampling times.

Algorithm for Training a Recurrent Multilayer Perceptron

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parlos, Alexander G.; Rais, Omar T.; Menon, Sunil K.; Atiya, Amir F.

2004-01-01

An improved algorithm has been devised for training a recurrent multilayer perceptron (RMLP) for optimal performance in predicting the behavior of a complex, dynamic, and noisy system multiple time steps into the future. [An RMLP is a computational neural network with self-feedback and cross-talk (both delayed by one time step) among neurons in hidden layers]. Like other neural-network-training algorithms, this algorithm adjusts network biases and synaptic-connection weights according to a gradient-descent rule. The distinguishing feature of this algorithm is a combination of global feedback (the use of predictions as well as the current output value in computing the gradient at each time step) and recursiveness. The recursive aspect of the algorithm lies in the inclusion of the gradient of predictions at each time step with respect to the predictions at the preceding time step; this recursion enables the RMLP to learn the dynamics. It has been conjectured that carrying the recursion to even earlier time steps would enable the RMLP to represent a noisier, more complex system.

Real-tiem Adaptive Control Scheme for Superior Plasma Confinement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alexander Trunov, Ph.D.

2001-06-01

During this Phase I project, IOS, in collaboration with our subcontractors at General Atomics, Inc., acquired and analyzed measurement data on various plasma equilibrium modes. We developed a Matlab-based toolbox consisting of linear and neural network approximators that are capable of learning and predicting, with accuracy, the behavior of plasma parameters. We also began development of the control algorithm capable of using the model of the plasma obtained by the neural network approximator.

A system for learning statistical motion patterns.

PubMed

Hu, Weiming; Xiao, Xuejuan; Fu, Zhouyu; Xie, Dan; Tan, Tieniu; Maybank, Steve

2006-09-01

Analysis of motion patterns is an effective approach for anomaly detection and behavior prediction. Current approaches for the analysis of motion patterns depend on known scenes, where objects move in predefined ways. It is highly desirable to automatically construct object motion patterns which reflect the knowledge of the scene. In this paper, we present a system for automatically learning motion patterns for anomaly detection and behavior prediction based on a proposed algorithm for robustly tracking multiple objects. In the tracking algorithm, foreground pixels are clustered using a fast accurate fuzzy K-means algorithm. Growing and prediction of the cluster centroids of foreground pixels ensure that each cluster centroid is associated with a moving object in the scene. In the algorithm for learning motion patterns, trajectories are clustered hierarchically using spatial and temporal information and then each motion pattern is represented with a chain of Gaussian distributions. Based on the learned statistical motion patterns, statistical methods are used to detect anomalies and predict behaviors. Our system is tested using image sequences acquired, respectively, from a crowded real traffic scene and a model traffic scene. Experimental results show the robustness of the tracking algorithm, the efficiency of the algorithm for learning motion patterns, and the encouraging performance of algorithms for anomaly detection and behavior prediction.

Underground localization using dual magnetic field sequence measurement and pose graph SLAM for directional drilling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Byeolteo; Myung, Hyun

2014-12-01

With the development of unconventional gas, the technology of directional drilling has become more advanced. Underground localization is the key technique of directional drilling for real-time path following and system control. However, there are problems such as vibration, disconnection with external infrastructure, and magnetic field distortion. Conventional methods cannot solve these problems in real time or in various environments. In this paper, a novel underground localization algorithm using a re-measurement of the sequence of the magnetic field and pose graph SLAM (simultaneous localization and mapping) is introduced. The proposed algorithm exploits the property of the drilling system that the body passes through the previous pass. By comparing the recorded measurement from one magnetic sensor and the current re-measurement from another magnetic sensor, the proposed algorithm predicts the pose of the drilling system. The performance of the algorithm is validated through simulations and experiments.

Predicting biomedical metadata in CEDAR: A study of Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO).

PubMed

Panahiazar, Maryam; Dumontier, Michel; Gevaert, Olivier

2017-08-01

A crucial and limiting factor in data reuse is the lack of accurate, structured, and complete descriptions of data, known as metadata. Towards improving the quantity and quality of metadata, we propose a novel metadata prediction framework to learn associations from existing metadata that can be used to predict metadata values. We evaluate our framework in the context of experimental metadata from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). We applied four rule mining algorithms to the most common structured metadata elements (sample type, molecular type, platform, label type and organism) from over 1.3million GEO records. We examined the quality of well supported rules from each algorithm and visualized the dependencies among metadata elements. Finally, we evaluated the performance of the algorithms in terms of accuracy, precision, recall, and F-measure. We found that PART is the best algorithm outperforming Apriori, Predictive Apriori, and Decision Table. All algorithms perform significantly better in predicting class values than the majority vote classifier. We found that the performance of the algorithms is related to the dimensionality of the GEO elements. The average performance of all algorithm increases due of the decreasing of dimensionality of the unique values of these elements (2697 platforms, 537 organisms, 454 labels, 9 molecules, and 5 types). Our work suggests that experimental metadata such as present in GEO can be accurately predicted using rule mining algorithms. Our work has implications for both prospective and retrospective augmentation of metadata quality, which are geared towards making data easier to find and reuse. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Enhanced clinical pharmacy service targeting tools: risk-predictive algorithms.

PubMed

El Hajji, Feras W D; Scullin, Claire; Scott, Michael G; McElnay, James C

2015-04-01

This study aimed to determine the value of using a mix of clinical pharmacy data and routine hospital admission spell data in the development of predictive algorithms. Exploration of risk factors in hospitalized patients, together with the targeting strategies devised, will enable the prioritization of clinical pharmacy services to optimize patient outcomes. Predictive algorithms were developed using a number of detailed steps using a 75% sample of integrated medicines management (IMM) patients, and validated using the remaining 25%. IMM patients receive targeted clinical pharmacy input throughout their hospital stay. The algorithms were applied to the validation sample, and predicted risk probability was generated for each patient from the coefficients. Risk threshold for the algorithms were determined by identifying the cut-off points of risk scores at which the algorithm would have the highest discriminative performance. Clinical pharmacy staffing levels were obtained from the pharmacy department staffing database. Numbers of previous emergency admissions and admission medicines together with age-adjusted co-morbidity and diuretic receipt formed a 12-month post-discharge and/or readmission risk algorithm. Age-adjusted co-morbidity proved to be the best index to predict mortality. Increased numbers of clinical pharmacy staff at ward level was correlated with a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality index (RAMI). Algorithms created were valid in predicting risk of in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and risk of hospital readmission 3, 6 and 12 months post-discharge. The provision of ward-based clinical pharmacy services is a key component to reducing RAMI and enabling the full benefits of pharmacy input to patient care to be realized. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A comprehensive performance evaluation on the prediction results of existing cooperative transcription factors identification algorithms.

PubMed

Lai, Fu-Jou; Chang, Hong-Tsun; Huang, Yueh-Min; Wu, Wei-Sheng

2014-01-01

Eukaryotic transcriptional regulation is known to be highly connected through the networks of cooperative transcription factors (TFs). Measuring the cooperativity of TFs is helpful for understanding the biological relevance of these TFs in regulating genes. The recent advances in computational techniques led to various predictions of cooperative TF pairs in yeast. As each algorithm integrated different data resources and was developed based on different rationales, it possessed its own merit and claimed outperforming others. However, the claim was prone to subjectivity because each algorithm compared with only a few other algorithms and only used a small set of performance indices for comparison. This motivated us to propose a series of indices to objectively evaluate the prediction performance of existing algorithms. And based on the proposed performance indices, we conducted a comprehensive performance evaluation. We collected 14 sets of predicted cooperative TF pairs (PCTFPs) in yeast from 14 existing algorithms in the literature. Using the eight performance indices we adopted/proposed, the cooperativity of each PCTFP was measured and a ranking score according to the mean cooperativity of the set was given to each set of PCTFPs under evaluation for each performance index. It was seen that the ranking scores of a set of PCTFPs vary with different performance indices, implying that an algorithm used in predicting cooperative TF pairs is of strength somewhere but may be of weakness elsewhere. We finally made a comprehensive ranking for these 14 sets. The results showed that Wang J's study obtained the best performance evaluation on the prediction of cooperative TF pairs in yeast. In this study, we adopted/proposed eight performance indices to make a comprehensive performance evaluation on the prediction results of 14 existing cooperative TFs identification algorithms. Most importantly, these proposed indices can be easily applied to measure the performance of new algorithms developed in the future, thus expedite progress in this research field.

Outpatient Closed-Loop Control with Unannounced Moderate Exercise in Adolescents Using Zone Model Predictive Control

PubMed Central

Huyett, Lauren M.; Ly, Trang T.; Forlenza, Gregory P.; Reuschel-DiVirgilio, Suzette; Messer, Laurel H.; Wadwa, R. Paul; Gondhalekar, Ravi; Doyle, Francis J.; Pinsker, Jordan E.; Maahs, David M.; Buckingham, Bruce A.

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: The artificial pancreas (AP) has the potential to improve glycemic control in adolescents. This article presents the first evaluation in adolescents of the Zone Model Predictive Control and Health Monitoring System (ZMPC+HMS) AP algorithms, and their first evaluation in a supervised outpatient setting with frequent exercise. Materials and Methods: Adolescents with type 1 diabetes underwent 3 days of closed-loop control (CLC) in a hotel setting with the ZMPC+HMS algorithms on the Diabetes Assistant platform. Subjects engaged in twice-daily exercise, including soccer, tennis, and bicycling. Meal size (unrestricted) was estimated and entered into the system by subjects to trigger a bolus, but exercise was not announced. Results: Ten adolescents (11.9–17.7 years) completed 72 h of CLC, with data on 95 ± 14 h of sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy before CLC as a comparison to usual therapy. The percentage of time with continuous glucose monitor (CGM) 70–180 mg/dL was 71% ± 10% during CLC, compared to 57% ± 16% during SAP (P = 0.012). Nocturnal control during CLC was safe, with 0% (0%, 0.6%) of time with CGM <70 mg/dL compared to 1.1% (0.0%, 14%) during SAP. Despite large meals (estimated up to 120 g carbohydrate), only 8.0% ± 6.9% of time during CLC was spent with CGM >250 mg/dL (16% ± 14% during SAP). The system remained connected in CLC for 97% ± 2% of the total study time. No adverse events or severe hypoglycemia occurred. Conclusions: The use of the ZMPC+HMS algorithms is feasible in the adolescent outpatient environment and achieved significantly more time in the desired glycemic range than SAP in the face of unannounced exercise and large announced meal challenges. PMID:28459617

Analytical investigation of adaptive control of radiated inlet noise from turbofan engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Risi, John D.; Burdisso, Ricardo A.

1994-01-01

An analytical model has been developed to predict the resulting far field radiation from a turbofan engine inlet. A feedforward control algorithm was simulated to predict the controlled far field radiation from the destructive combination of fan noise and secondary control sources. Numerical results were developed for two system configurations, with the resulting controlled far field radiation patterns showing varying degrees of attenuation and spillover. With one axial station of twelve control sources and error sensors with equal relative angular positions, nearly global attenuation is achieved. Shifting the angular position of one error sensor resulted in an increase of spillover to the extreme sidelines. The complex control inputs for each configuration was investigated to identify the structure of the wave pattern created by the control sources, giving an indication of performance of the system configuration. It is deduced that the locations of the error sensors and the control source configuration are equally critical to the operation of the active noise control system.

Characterization and prediction of the backscattered form function of an immersed cylindrical shell using hybrid fuzzy clustering and bio-inspired algorithms.

PubMed

Agounad, Said; Aassif, El Houcein; Khandouch, Younes; Maze, Gérard; Décultot, Dominique

2018-02-01

The acoustic scattering of a plane wave by an elastic cylindrical shell is studied. A new approach is developed to predict the form function of an immersed cylindrical shell of the radius ratio b/a ('b' is the inner radius and 'a' is the outer radius). The prediction of the backscattered form function is investigated by a combined approach between fuzzy clustering algorithms and bio-inspired algorithms. Four famous fuzzy clustering algorithms: the fuzzy c-means (FCM), the Gustafson-Kessel algorithm (GK), the fuzzy c-regression model (FCRM) and the Gath-Geva algorithm (GG) are combined with particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithm. The symmetric and antisymmetric circumferential waves A, S 0 , A 1 , S 1 and S 2 are investigated in a reduced frequency (k 1 a) range extends over 0.1

Phase 2 development of Great Lakes algorithms for Nimbus-7 coastal zone color scanner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tanis, Fred J.

1984-01-01

A series of experiments have been conducted in the Great Lakes designed to evaluate the application of the NIMBUS-7 Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS). Atmospheric and water optical models were used to relate surface and subsurface measurements to satellite measured radiances. Absorption and scattering measurements were reduced to obtain a preliminary optical model for the Great Lakes. Algorithms were developed for geometric correction, correction for Rayleigh and aerosol path radiance, and prediction of chlorophyll-a pigment and suspended mineral concentrations. The atmospheric algorithm developed compared favorably with existing algorithms and was the only algorithm found to adequately predict the radiance variations in the 670 nm band. The atmospheric correction algorithm developed was designed to extract needed algorithm parameters from the CZCS radiance values. The Gordon/NOAA ocean algorithms could not be demonstrated to work for Great Lakes waters. Predicted values of chlorophyll-a concentration compared favorably with expected and measured data for several areas of the Great Lakes.

Machine learning algorithm accurately detects fMRI signature of vulnerability to major depression.

PubMed

Sato, João R; Moll, Jorge; Green, Sophie; Deakin, John F W; Thomaz, Carlos E; Zahn, Roland

2015-08-30

Standard functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) analyses cannot assess the potential of a neuroimaging signature as a biomarker to predict individual vulnerability to major depression (MD). Here, we use machine learning for the first time to address this question. Using a recently identified neural signature of guilt-selective functional disconnection, the classification algorithm was able to distinguish remitted MD from control participants with 78.3% accuracy. This demonstrates the high potential of our fMRI signature as a biomarker of MD vulnerability. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying patients likely to have atopic dermatitis: development of a pilot algorithm.

PubMed

Farage, Miranda A; Bowtell, Philip; Katsarou, Alexandra

2010-01-01

A quick method to distinguish people who are predisposed to skin complaints would be useful in a variety of fields. Certain subgroups, such as people with atopic dermatitis, might be more susceptible to skin irritation than the typical consumer and may be more likely to report product-related complaints. To develop a rapid, questionnaire-based algorithm to predict whether or not individuals who report skin complaints have atopic dermatitis. A 9-item questionnaire on self-perceived skin sensitivity and product categories reportedly associated with skin reactions was administered to two groups of patients from a dermatology clinic: one with clinically diagnosed, active atopic dermatitis (n = 25) and a control group of patients with dermatologic complaints unrelated to atopic dermatitis (n = 25). Questionnaire responses were correlated with the patients' clinical diagnoses in order to derive the minimum number of questions needed to best predict the patients' original diagnoses. We demonstrated that responses to a sequence of three targeted questions related to self-perceived skin sensitivity, preference for hypoallergenic products, and reactions to or avoidance of alpha-hydroxy acids were highly predictive of atopic dermatitis among a population of dermatology clinic patients. The predictive algorithm concept may be useful in postmarketing surveillance programs to rapidly assess the possible status of consumers who report frequent or persistent product-related complaints. Further refinement and validation of this concept is planned with samples drawn from the general population and from consumers who report skin complaints associated with personal products.

Fast genomic predictions via Bayesian G-BLUP and multilocus models of threshold traits including censored Gaussian data.

PubMed

Kärkkäinen, Hanni P; Sillanpää, Mikko J

2013-09-04

Because of the increased availability of genome-wide sets of molecular markers along with reduced cost of genotyping large samples of individuals, genomic estimated breeding values have become an essential resource in plant and animal breeding. Bayesian methods for breeding value estimation have proven to be accurate and efficient; however, the ever-increasing data sets are placing heavy demands on the parameter estimation algorithms. Although a commendable number of fast estimation algorithms are available for Bayesian models of continuous Gaussian traits, there is a shortage for corresponding models of discrete or censored phenotypes. In this work, we consider a threshold approach of binary, ordinal, and censored Gaussian observations for Bayesian multilocus association models and Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction and present a high-speed generalized expectation maximization algorithm for parameter estimation under these models. We demonstrate our method with simulated and real data. Our example analyses suggest that the use of the extra information present in an ordered categorical or censored Gaussian data set, instead of dichotomizing the data into case-control observations, increases the accuracy of genomic breeding values predicted by Bayesian multilocus association models or by Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction. Furthermore, the example analyses indicate that the correct threshold model is more accurate than the directly used Gaussian model with a censored Gaussian data, while with a binary or an ordinal data the superiority of the threshold model could not be confirmed.

Fast Genomic Predictions via Bayesian G-BLUP and Multilocus Models of Threshold Traits Including Censored Gaussian Data

PubMed Central

Kärkkäinen, Hanni P.; Sillanpää, Mikko J.

2013-01-01

Because of the increased availability of genome-wide sets of molecular markers along with reduced cost of genotyping large samples of individuals, genomic estimated breeding values have become an essential resource in plant and animal breeding. Bayesian methods for breeding value estimation have proven to be accurate and efficient; however, the ever-increasing data sets are placing heavy demands on the parameter estimation algorithms. Although a commendable number of fast estimation algorithms are available for Bayesian models of continuous Gaussian traits, there is a shortage for corresponding models of discrete or censored phenotypes. In this work, we consider a threshold approach of binary, ordinal, and censored Gaussian observations for Bayesian multilocus association models and Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction and present a high-speed generalized expectation maximization algorithm for parameter estimation under these models. We demonstrate our method with simulated and real data. Our example analyses suggest that the use of the extra information present in an ordered categorical or censored Gaussian data set, instead of dichotomizing the data into case-control observations, increases the accuracy of genomic breeding values predicted by Bayesian multilocus association models or by Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction. Furthermore, the example analyses indicate that the correct threshold model is more accurate than the directly used Gaussian model with a censored Gaussian data, while with a binary or an ordinal data the superiority of the threshold model could not be confirmed. PMID:23821618

Optimal design of low-density SNP arrays for genomic prediction: algorithm and applications

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Low-density (LD) single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays provide a cost-effective solution for genomic prediction and selection, but algorithms and computational tools are needed for their optimal design. A multiple-objective, local optimization (MOLO) algorithm was developed for design of optim...

High Speed Research Noise Prediction Code (HSRNOISE) User's and Theoretical Manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Golub, Robert (Technical Monitor); Rawls, John W., Jr.; Yeager, Jessie C.

2004-01-01

This report describes a computer program, HSRNOISE, that predicts noise levels for a supersonic aircraft powered by mixed flow turbofan engines with rectangular mixer-ejector nozzles. It fully documents the noise prediction algorithms, provides instructions for executing the HSRNOISE code, and provides predicted noise levels for the High Speed Research (HSR) program Technology Concept (TC) aircraft. The component source noise prediction algorithms were developed jointly by Boeing, General Electric Aircraft Engines (GEAE), NASA and Pratt & Whitney during the course of the NASA HSR program. Modern Technologies Corporation developed an alternative mixer ejector jet noise prediction method under contract to GEAE that has also been incorporated into the HSRNOISE prediction code. Algorithms for determining propagation effects and calculating noise metrics were taken from the NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program.

An improved stochastic fractal search algorithm for 3D protein structure prediction.

PubMed

Zhou, Changjun; Sun, Chuan; Wang, Bin; Wang, Xiaojun

2018-05-03

Protein structure prediction (PSP) is a significant area for biological information research, disease treatment, and drug development and so on. In this paper, three-dimensional structures of proteins are predicted based on the known amino acid sequences, and the structure prediction problem is transformed into a typical NP problem by an AB off-lattice model. This work applies a novel improved Stochastic Fractal Search algorithm (ISFS) to solve the problem. The Stochastic Fractal Search algorithm (SFS) is an effective evolutionary algorithm that performs well in exploring the search space but falls into local minimums sometimes. In order to avoid the weakness, Lvy flight and internal feedback information are introduced in ISFS. In the experimental process, simulations are conducted by ISFS algorithm on Fibonacci sequences and real peptide sequences. Experimental results prove that the ISFS performs more efficiently and robust in terms of finding the global minimum and avoiding getting stuck in local minimums.

False-nearest-neighbors algorithm and noise-corrupted time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, Carl; Morari, Manfred

1997-05-01

The false-nearest-neighbors (FNN) algorithm was originally developed to determine the embedding dimension for autonomous time series. For noise-free computer-generated time series, the algorithm does a good job in predicting the embedding dimension. However, the problem of predicting the embedding dimension when the time-series data are corrupted by noise was not fully examined in the original studies of the FNN algorithm. Here it is shown that with large data sets, even small amounts of noise can lead to incorrect prediction of the embedding dimension. Surprisingly, as the length of the time series analyzed by FNN grows larger, the cause of incorrect prediction becomes more pronounced. An analysis of the effect of noise on the FNN algorithm and a solution for dealing with the effects of noise are given here. Some results on the theoretically correct choice of the FNN threshold are also presented.

A systematic review of validated methods to capture stillbirth and spontaneous abortion using administrative or claims data.

PubMed

Likis, Frances E; Sathe, Nila A; Carnahan, Ryan; McPheeters, Melissa L

2013-12-30

To identify and assess diagnosis, procedure and pharmacy dispensing codes used to identify stillbirths and spontaneous abortion in administrative and claims databases from the United States or Canada. We searched the MEDLINE database from 1991 to September 2012 using controlled vocabulary and key terms related to stillbirth or spontaneous abortion. We also searched the reference lists of included studies. Two investigators independently assessed the full text of studies against pre-determined inclusion criteria. Two reviewers independently extracted data regarding participant and algorithm characteristics and assessed each study's methodological rigor using a pre-defined approach. Ten publications addressing stillbirth and four addressing spontaneous abortion met our inclusion criteria. The International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) codes most commonly used in algorithms for stillbirth were those for intrauterine death (656.4) and stillborn outcomes of delivery (V27.1, V27.3-V27.4, and V27.6-V27.7). Papers identifying spontaneous abortion used codes for missed abortion and spontaneous abortion: 632, 634.x, as well as V27.0-V27.7. Only two studies identifying stillbirth reported validation of algorithms. The overall positive predictive value of the algorithms was high (99%-100%), and one study reported an algorithm with 86% sensitivity. However, the predictive value of individual codes was not assessed and study populations were limited to specific geographic areas. Additional validation studies with a nationally representative sample are needed to confirm the optimal algorithm to identify stillbirths or spontaneous abortion in administrative and claims databases.' Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Protein Structure Prediction with Evolutionary Algorithms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hart, W.E.; Krasnogor, N.; Pelta, D.A.

1999-02-08

Evolutionary algorithms have been successfully applied to a variety of molecular structure prediction problems. In this paper we reconsider the design of genetic algorithms that have been applied to a simple protein structure prediction problem. Our analysis considers the impact of several algorithmic factors for this problem: the confirmational representation, the energy formulation and the way in which infeasible conformations are penalized, Further we empirically evaluated the impact of these factors on a small set of polymer sequences. Our analysis leads to specific recommendations for both GAs as well as other heuristic methods for solving PSP on the HP model.

A Universal Tare Load Prediction Algorithm for Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulbrich, N.

2011-01-01

An algorithm is discussed that may be used to estimate tare loads of wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. The algorithm was originally developed by R. Galway of IAR/NRC Canada and has been described in the literature for the iterative analysis technique. Basic ideas of Galway's algorithm, however, are universally applicable and work for both the iterative and the non-iterative analysis technique. A recent modification of Galway's algorithm is presented that improves the convergence behavior of the tare load prediction process if it is used in combination with the non-iterative analysis technique. The modified algorithm allows an analyst to use an alternate method for the calculation of intermediate non-linear tare load estimates whenever Galway's original approach does not lead to a convergence of the tare load iterations. It is also shown in detail how Galway's algorithm may be applied to the non-iterative analysis technique. Hand load data from the calibration of a six-component force balance is used to illustrate the application of the original and modified tare load prediction method. During the analysis of the data both the iterative and the non-iterative analysis technique were applied. Overall, predicted tare loads for combinations of the two tare load prediction methods and the two balance data analysis techniques showed excellent agreement as long as the tare load iterations converged. The modified algorithm, however, appears to have an advantage over the original algorithm when absolute voltage measurements of gage outputs are processed using the non-iterative analysis technique. In these situations only the modified algorithm converged because it uses an exact solution of the intermediate non-linear tare load estimate for the tare load iteration.

IND - THE IND DECISION TREE PACKAGE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, W.

1994-01-01

A common approach to supervised classification and prediction in artificial intelligence and statistical pattern recognition is the use of decision trees. A tree is "grown" from data using a recursive partitioning algorithm to create a tree which has good prediction of classes on new data. Standard algorithms are CART (by Breiman Friedman, Olshen and Stone) and ID3 and its successor C4 (by Quinlan). As well as reimplementing parts of these algorithms and offering experimental control suites, IND also introduces Bayesian and MML methods and more sophisticated search in growing trees. These produce more accurate class probability estimates that are important in applications like diagnosis. IND is applicable to most data sets consisting of independent instances, each described by a fixed length vector of attribute values. An attribute value may be a number, one of a set of attribute specific symbols, or it may be omitted. One of the attributes is delegated the "target" and IND grows trees to predict the target. Prediction can then be done on new data or the decision tree printed out for inspection. IND provides a range of features and styles with convenience for the casual user as well as fine-tuning for the advanced user or those interested in research. IND can be operated in a CART-like mode (but without regression trees, surrogate splits or multivariate splits), and in a mode like the early version of C4. Advanced features allow more extensive search, interactive control and display of tree growing, and Bayesian and MML algorithms for tree pruning and smoothing. These often produce more accurate class probability estimates at the leaves. IND also comes with a comprehensive experimental control suite. IND consists of four basic kinds of routines: data manipulation routines, tree generation routines, tree testing routines, and tree display routines. The data manipulation routines are used to partition a single large data set into smaller training and test sets. The generation routines are used to build classifiers. The test routines are used to evaluate classifiers and to classify data using a classifier. And the display routines are used to display classifiers in various formats. IND is written in C-language for Sun4 series computers. It consists of several programs with controlling shell scripts. Extensive UNIX man entries are included. IND is designed to be used on any UNIX system, although it has only been thoroughly tested on SUN platforms. The standard distribution medium for IND is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. An electronic copy of the documentation in PostScript format is included on the distribution medium. IND was developed in 1992.

Prediction Of The Expected Safety Performance Of Rural Two-Lane Highways

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

This report presents an algorithm for predicting the safety performance of a rural two-lane highway. The accident prediction algorithm consists of base models and accident modification factors for both roadway segments and at-grade intersections on r...

Adaptive non-linear control for cancer therapy through a Fokker-Planck observer.

PubMed

Shakeri, Ehsan; Latif-Shabgahi, Gholamreza; Esmaeili Abharian, Amir

2018-04-01

In recent years, many efforts have been made to present optimal strategies for cancer therapy through the mathematical modelling of tumour-cell population dynamics and optimal control theory. In many cases, therapy effect is included in the drift term of the stochastic Gompertz model. By fitting the model with empirical data, the parameters of therapy function are estimated. The reported research works have not presented any algorithm to determine the optimal parameters of therapy function. In this study, a logarithmic therapy function is entered in the drift term of the Gompertz model. Using the proposed control algorithm, the therapy function parameters are predicted and adaptively adjusted. To control the growth of tumour-cell population, its moments must be manipulated. This study employs the probability density function (PDF) control approach because of its ability to control all the process moments. A Fokker-Planck-based non-linear stochastic observer will be used to determine the PDF of the process. A cost function based on the difference between a predefined desired PDF and PDF of tumour-cell population is defined. Using the proposed algorithm, the therapy function parameters are adjusted in such a manner that the cost function is minimised. The existence of an optimal therapy function is also proved. The numerical results are finally given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Insulin Patch Pumps: Their Development and Future in Closed-Loop Systems

PubMed Central

Bohannon, Nancy J.V.

2010-01-01

Abstract Steady progress is being made toward the development of a so-called “artificial pancreas,” which may ultimately be a fully automated, closed-loop, glucose control system comprising a continuous glucose monitor, an insulin pump, and a controller. The controller will use individualized algorithms to direct delivery of insulin without user input. A major factor propelling artificial pancreas development is the substantial incidence of—and attendant patient, parental, and physician concerns about—hypoglycemia and extreme hyperglycemia associated with current means of insulin delivery for type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). A successful fully automated artificial pancreas would likely reduce the frequency of and anxiety about hypoglycemia and marked hyperglycemia. Patch-pump systems (“patch pumps”) are likely to be used increasingly in the control of T1DM and may be incorporated into the artificial pancreas systems of tomorrow. Patch pumps are free of tubing, small, lightweight, and unobtrusive. This article describes features of patch pumps that have been approved for U.S. marketing or are under development. Included in the review is an introduction to control algorithms driving insulin delivery, particularly the two major types: proportional integrative derivative and model predictive control. The use of advanced algorithms in the clinical development of closed-loop systems is reviewed along with projected next steps in artificial pancreas development. PMID:20515308

Electric Power Engineering Cost Predicting Model Based on the PCA-GA-BP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Lei; Yu, Jiake; Zhao, Xin

2017-10-01

In this paper a hybrid prediction algorithm: PCA-GA-BP model is proposed. PCA algorithm is established to reduce the correlation between indicators of original data and decrease difficulty of BP neural network in complex dimensional calculation. The BP neural network is established to estimate the cost of power transmission project. The results show that PCA-GA-BP algorithm can improve result of prediction of electric power engineering cost.

Orion Guidance and Control Ascent Abort Algorithm Design and Performance Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Proud, Ryan W.; Bendle, John R.; Tedesco, Mark B.; Hart, Jeremy J.

2009-01-01

During the ascent flight phase of NASA s Constellation Program, the Ares launch vehicle propels the Orion crew vehicle to an agreed to insertion target. If a failure occurs at any point in time during ascent then a system must be in place to abort the mission and return the crew to a safe landing with a high probability of success. To achieve continuous abort coverage one of two sets of effectors is used. Either the Launch Abort System (LAS), consisting of the Attitude Control Motor (ACM) and the Abort Motor (AM), or the Service Module (SM), consisting of SM Orion Main Engine (OME), Auxiliary (Aux) Jets, and Reaction Control System (RCS) jets, is used. The LAS effectors are used for aborts from liftoff through the first 30 seconds of second stage flight. The SM effectors are used from that point through Main Engine Cutoff (MECO). There are two distinct sets of Guidance and Control (G&C) algorithms that are designed to maximize the performance of these abort effectors. This paper will outline the necessary inputs to the G&C subsystem, the preliminary design of the G&C algorithms, the ability of the algorithms to predict what abort modes are achievable, and the resulting success of the abort system. Abort success will be measured against the Preliminary Design Review (PDR) abort performance metrics and overall performance will be reported. Finally, potential improvements to the G&C design will be discussed.

A hybrid expectation maximisation and MCMC sampling algorithm to implement Bayesian mixture model based genomic prediction and QTL mapping.

PubMed

Wang, Tingting; Chen, Yi-Ping Phoebe; Bowman, Phil J; Goddard, Michael E; Hayes, Ben J

2016-09-21

Bayesian mixture models in which the effects of SNP are assumed to come from normal distributions with different variances are attractive for simultaneous genomic prediction and QTL mapping. These models are usually implemented with Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling, which requires long compute times with large genomic data sets. Here, we present an efficient approach (termed HyB_BR), which is a hybrid of an Expectation-Maximisation algorithm, followed by a limited number of MCMC without the requirement for burn-in. To test prediction accuracy from HyB_BR, dairy cattle and human disease trait data were used. In the dairy cattle data, there were four quantitative traits (milk volume, protein kg, fat% in milk and fertility) measured in 16,214 cattle from two breeds genotyped for 632,002 SNPs. Validation of genomic predictions was in a subset of cattle either from the reference set or in animals from a third breeds that were not in the reference set. In all cases, HyB_BR gave almost identical accuracies to Bayesian mixture models implemented with full MCMC, however computational time was reduced by up to 1/17 of that required by full MCMC. The SNPs with high posterior probability of a non-zero effect were also very similar between full MCMC and HyB_BR, with several known genes affecting milk production in this category, as well as some novel genes. HyB_BR was also applied to seven human diseases with 4890 individuals genotyped for around 300 K SNPs in a case/control design, from the Welcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC). In this data set, the results demonstrated again that HyB_BR performed as well as Bayesian mixture models with full MCMC for genomic predictions and genetic architecture inference while reducing the computational time from 45 h with full MCMC to 3 h with HyB_BR. The results for quantitative traits in cattle and disease in humans demonstrate that HyB_BR can perform equally well as Bayesian mixture models implemented with full MCMC in terms of prediction accuracy, but with up to 17 times faster than the full MCMC implementations. The HyB_BR algorithm makes simultaneous genomic prediction, QTL mapping and inference of genetic architecture feasible in large genomic data sets.

Active structural acoustic control of helicopter interior multifrequency noise using input-output-based hybrid control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xunjun; Lu, Yang; Wang, Fengjiao

2017-09-01

This paper presents the recent advances in reduction of multifrequency noise inside helicopter cabin using an active structural acoustic control system, which is based on active gearbox struts technical approach. To attenuate the multifrequency gearbox vibrations and resulting noise, a new scheme of discrete model predictive sliding mode control has been proposed based on controlled auto-regressive moving average model. Its implementation only needs input/output data, hence a broader frequency range of controlled system is modelled and the burden on the state observer design is released. Furthermore, a new iteration form of the algorithm is designed, improving the developing efficiency and run speed. To verify the algorithm's effectiveness and self-adaptability, experiments of real-time active control are performed on a newly developed helicopter model system. The helicopter model can generate gear meshing vibration/noise similar to a real helicopter with specially designed gearbox and active struts. The algorithm's control abilities are sufficiently checked by single-input single-output and multiple-input multiple-output experiments via different feedback strategies progressively: (1) control gear meshing noise through attenuating vibrations at the key points on the transmission path, (2) directly control the gear meshing noise in the cabin using the actuators. Results confirm that the active control system is practical for cancelling multifrequency helicopter interior noise, which also weakens the frequency-modulation of the tones. For many cases, the attenuations of the measured noise exceed the level of 15 dB, with maximum reduction reaching 31 dB. Also, the control process is demonstrated to be smoother and faster.

Model Predictive Control of HVAC Systems: Implementation and Testing at the University of California, Merced

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haves, Phillip; Hencey, Brandon; Borrell, Francesco

2010-06-29

A Model Predictive Control algorithm was developed for the UC Merced campus chilled water plant. Model predictive control (MPC) is an advanced control technology that has proven successful in the chemical process industry and other industries. The main goal of the research was to demonstrate the practical and commercial viability of MPC for optimization of building energy systems. The control algorithms were developed and implemented in MATLAB, allowing for rapid development, performance, and robustness assessment. The UC Merced chilled water plant includes three water-cooled chillers and a two million gallon chilled water storage tank. The tank is charged during themore » night to minimize on-peak electricity consumption and take advantage of the lower ambient wet bulb temperature. The control algorithms determined the optimal chilled water plant operation including chilled water supply (CHWS) temperature set-point, condenser water supply (CWS) temperature set-point and the charging start and stop times to minimize a cost function that includes energy consumption and peak electrical demand over a 3-day prediction horizon. A detailed model of the chilled water plant and simplified models of the buildings served by the plant were developed using the equation-based modeling language Modelica. Steady state models of the chillers, cooling towers and pumps were developed, based on manufacturers performance data, and calibrated using measured data collected and archived by the control system. A detailed dynamic model of the chilled water storage tank was also developed and calibrated. Simple, semi-empirical models were developed to predict the temperature and flow rate of the chilled water returning to the plant from the buildings. These models were then combined and simplified for use in a model predictive control algorithm that determines the optimal chiller start and stop times and set-points for the condenser water temperature and the chilled water supply temperature. The report describes the development and testing of the algorithm and evaluates the resulting performance, concluding with a discussion of next steps in further research. The experimental results show a small improvement in COP over the baseline policy but it is difficult to draw any strong conclusions about the energy savings potential for MPC with this system only four days of suitable experimental data were obtained once correct operation of the MPC system had been achieved. These data show an improvement in COP of 3.1% {+-} 2.2% relative to a baseline established immediately prior to the period when the MPC was run in its final form. This baseline includes control policy improvements that the plant operators learned by observing the earlier implementations of MPC, including increasing the temperature of the water supplied to the chiller condensers from the cooling towers. The process of data collection and model development, necessary for any MPC project, resulted in the team uncovering various problems with the chilled water system. Although it is difficult to quantify the energy savings resulting from these problems being remedied, they were likely on the same order as the energy savings from the MPC itself. Although the types of problems uncovered and the level of energy savings may differ significantly from other projects, some of the benefits of detecting and diagnosing problems are expected from the use of MPC for any chilled water plant. The degree of chiller loading was found to be a key factor for efficiency. It is more efficient to operate the chillers at or near full load. In order to maximize the chiller load, one would maximize the temperature difference across chillers and the chilled water flow rate through the chillers. Thus, the CHWS set-point and the chilled water flow-rate can be used to limit the chiller loading to prevent chiller surging. Since the flow rate has an upper bound and the CHWS set point has a lower bound, the chiller loading is constrained and often determined by the chilled water return temperature (CHWR). The CHWR temperature is primarily comprised of warm water from the top of the TES tank. The CHWR temperature falls substantially as the thermocline approaches the top of the tank, which reduces the chiller loading. As a result, it has been determined that overcharging the TES tank can be detrimental to the chilled water plant efficiency. The resulting MPC policy differs from the current practice of fully charging the TES tank. A heuristic rule could possible avoid this problem without using predictive control. Similarly, the COP improvements from the change in CWS set-point were largely captured by a static set-point change by the operators. Further research is required to determine how much of the MPC savings could be garnered through simplified rules (based on the MPC study), with and without prediction.« less

A Unified Statistical Rain-Attenuation Model for Communication Link Fade Predictions and Optimal Stochastic Fade Control Design Using a Location-Dependent Rain-Statistic Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manning, Robert M.

1990-01-01

A static and dynamic rain-attenuation model is presented which describes the statistics of attenuation on an arbitrarily specified satellite link for any location for which there are long-term rainfall statistics. The model may be used in the design of the optimal stochastic control algorithms to mitigate the effects of attenuation and maintain link reliability. A rain-statistics data base is compiled, which makes it possible to apply the model to any location in the continental U.S. with a resolution of 0-5 degrees in latitude and longitude. The model predictions are compared with experimental observations, showing good agreement.

Neural correlates of strategic reasoning during competitive games.

PubMed

Seo, Hyojung; Cai, Xinying; Donahue, Christopher H; Lee, Daeyeol

2014-10-17

Although human and animal behaviors are largely shaped by reinforcement and punishment, choices in social settings are also influenced by information about the knowledge and experience of other decision-makers. During competitive games, monkeys increased their payoffs by systematically deviating from a simple heuristic learning algorithm and thereby countering the predictable exploitation by their computer opponent. Neurons in the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) signaled the animal's recent choice and reward history that reflected the computer's exploitative strategy. The strength of switching signals in the dmPFC also correlated with the animal's tendency to deviate from the heuristic learning algorithm. Therefore, the dmPFC might provide control signals for overriding simple heuristic learning algorithms based on the inferred strategies of the opponent. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Binary Classification using Decision Tree based Genetic Programming and Its Application to Analysis of Bio-mass Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

To, Cuong; Pham, Tuan D.

2010-01-01

In machine learning, pattern recognition may be the most popular task. "Similar" patterns identification is also very important in biology because first, it is useful for prediction of patterns associated with disease, for example cancer tissue (normal or tumor); second, similarity or dissimilarity of the kinetic patterns is used to identify coordinately controlled genes or proteins involved in the same regulatory process. Third, similar genes (proteins) share similar functions. In this paper, we present an algorithm which uses genetic programming to create decision tree for binary classification problem. The application of the algorithm was implemented on five real biological databases. Base on the results of comparisons with well-known methods, we see that the algorithm is outstanding in most of cases.

A Real-Time Position-Locating Algorithm for CCD-Based Sunspot Tracking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Jaime R.

1996-01-01

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) EXperimental Vector Magnetograph (EXVM) polarimeter measures the sun's vector magnetic field. These measurements are taken to improve understanding of the sun's magnetic field in the hopes to better predict solar flares. Part of the procedure for the EXVM requires image motion stabilization over a period of a few minutes. A high speed tracker can be used to reduce image motion produced by wind loading on the EXVM, fluctuations in the atmosphere and other vibrations. The tracker consists of two elements, an image motion detector and a control system. The image motion detector determines the image movement from one frame to the next and sends an error signal to the control system. For the ground based application to reduce image motion due to atmospheric fluctuations requires an error determination at the rate of at least 100 hz. It would be desirable to have an error determination rate of 1 kHz to assure that higher rate image motion is reduced and to increase the control system stability. Two algorithms are presented that are typically used for tracking. These algorithms are examined for their applicability for tracking sunspots, specifically their accuracy if only one column and one row of CCD pixels are used. To examine the accuracy of this method two techniques are used. One involves moving a sunspot image a known distance with computer software, then applying the particular algorithm to see how accurately it determines this movement. The second technique involves using a rate table to control the object motion, then applying the algorithms to see how accurately each determines the actual motion. Results from these two techniques are presented.

Tactical Conflict Detection in Terminal Airspace

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tang, Huabin; Robinson, John E.; Denery, Dallas G.

2010-01-01

Air traffic systems have long relied on automated short-term conflict prediction algorithms to warn controllers of impending conflicts (losses of separation). The complexity of terminal airspace has proven difficult for such systems as it often leads to excessive false alerts. Thus, the legacy system, called Conflict Alert, which provides short-term alerts in both en-route and terminal airspace currently, is often inhibited or degraded in areas where frequent false alerts occur, even though the alerts are provided only when an aircraft is in dangerous proximity of other aircraft. This research investigates how a minimal level of flight intent information may be used to improve short-term conflict detection in terminal airspace such that it can be used by the controller to maintain legal aircraft separation. The flight intent information includes a site-specific nominal arrival route and inferred altitude clearances in addition to the flight plan that includes the RNAV (Area Navigation) departure route. A new tactical conflict detection algorithm is proposed, which uses a single analytic trajectory, determined by the flight intent and the current state information of the aircraft, and includes a complex set of current, dynamic separation standards for terminal airspace to define losses of separation. The new algorithm is compared with an algorithm that imitates a known en-route algorithm and another that imitates Conflict Alert by analysis of false-alert rate and alert lead time with recent real-world data of arrival and departure operations and a large set of operational error cases from Dallas/Fort Worth TRACON (Terminal Radar Approach Control). The new algorithm yielded a false-alert rate of two per hour and an average alert lead time of 38 seconds.

Test and evaluation of the HIDEC engine uptrim algorithm. [Highly Integrated Digital Electronic Control for aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, R. J.; Myers, L. P.

1986-01-01

The highly integrated digital electronic control (HIDEC) program will demonstrate and evaluate the improvements in performance and mission effectiveness that result from integrated engine-airframe control systems. Performance improvements will result from an adaptive engine stall margin mode, a highly integrated mode that uses the airplane flight conditions and the resulting inlet distortion to continuously compute engine stall margin. When there is excessive stall margin, the engine is uptrimmed for more thrust by increasing engine pressure ratio (EPR). The EPR uptrim logic has been evaluated and implemente into computer simulations. Thrust improvements over 10 percent are predicted for subsonic flight conditions. The EPR uptrim was successfully demonstrated during engine ground tests. Test results verify model predictions at the conditions tested.

Clinical Utility of a Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Gene Score in UK Healthy Middle Aged Men and in the Pakistani Population

PubMed Central

Beaney, Katherine E.; Cooper, Jackie A.; Ullah Shahid, Saleem; Ahmed, Waqas; Qamar, Raheel; Drenos, Fotios; Crockard, Martin A.; Humphries, Steve E.

2015-01-01

Background Numerous risk prediction algorithms based on conventional risk factors for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) are available but provide only modest discrimination. The inclusion of genetic information may improve clinical utility. Methods We tested the use of two gene scores (GS) in the prospective second Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHSII) of 2775 healthy UK men (284 cases), and Pakistani case-control studies from Islamabad/Rawalpindi (321 cases/228 controls) and Lahore (414 cases/219 controls). The 19-SNP GS included SNPs in loci identified by GWAS and candidate gene studies, while the 13-SNP GS only included SNPs in loci identified by the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium. Results In NPHSII, the mean of both gene scores was higher in those who went on to develop CHD over 13.5 years of follow-up (19-SNP p=0.01, 13-SNP p=7x10-3). In combination with the Framingham algorithm the GSs appeared to show improvement in discrimination (increase in area under the ROC curve, 19-SNP p=0.48, 13-SNP p=0.82) and risk classification (net reclassification improvement (NRI), 19-SNP p=0.28, 13-SNP p=0.42) compared to the Framingham algorithm alone, but these were not statistically significant. When considering only individuals who moved up a risk category with inclusion of the GS, the improvement in risk classification was statistically significant (19-SNP p=0.01, 13-SNP p=0.04). In the Pakistani samples, risk allele frequencies were significantly lower compared to NPHSII for 13/19 SNPs. In the Islamabad study, the mean gene score was higher in cases than controls only for the 13-SNP GS (2.24 v 2.34, p=0.04). There was no association with CHD and either score in the Lahore study. Conclusion The performance of both GSs showed potential clinical utility in European men but much less utility in subjects from Pakistan, suggesting that a different set of risk loci or SNPs may be required for risk prediction in the South Asian population. PMID:26133560

Diagnosis of Clostridium difficile-associated disease: examination of multiple algorithms using toxin EIA, glutamate dehydrogenase EIA and loop-mediated isothermal amplification.

PubMed

Bamber, A I; Fitzsimmons, K; Cunniffe, J G; Beasor, C C; Mackintosh, C A; Hobbs, G

2012-01-01

The laboratory diagnosis of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) needs to be accurate and timely to ensure optimal patient management, infection control and reliable surveillance. Three methods are evaluated using 810 consecutive stool samples against toxigenic culture: CDT TOX A/B Premier enzyme immunoassay (EIA) kit (Meridian Bioscience, Europe), Premier EIA for C. difficile glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH) (Meridian Bioscience, Europe) and the Illumigene kit (Meridian Bioscience, Europe), both individually and within combined testing algorithms. The study revealed that the CDT TOX A/B Premier EIA gave rise to false-positive and false-negative results and demonstrated poor sensitivity (56.47%), compared to Premier EIA for C. difficile GDH (97.65%), suggesting this GDH EIA can be a useful negative screening method. Results for the Illumigene assay alone showed sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV) of 91.57%, 98.07%, 99.03% and 84.44%, respectively. A two-stage algorithm using Premier EIA for C. difficile GDH/Illumigene assay yielded superior results compared with other testing algorithms (91.57%, 98.07%, 99.03% and 84.44%, respectively), mirroring the Illumigene performance. However, Illumigene is approximately half the cost of current polymerase chain reaction (PCR) methods, has a rapid turnaround time and requires no specialised skill base, making it an attractive alternative to assays such as the Xpert C. difficile assay (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA). A three-stage algorithm offered no improvement and would hamper workflow.

Accuracy of algorithms to predict accessory pathway location in children with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome.

PubMed

Wren, Christopher; Vogel, Melanie; Lord, Stephen; Abrams, Dominic; Bourke, John; Rees, Philip; Rosenthal, Eric

2012-02-01

The aim of this study was to examine the accuracy in predicting pathway location in children with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome for each of seven published algorithms. ECGs from 100 consecutive children with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome undergoing electrophysiological study were analysed by six investigators using seven published algorithms, six of which had been developed in adult patients. Accuracy and concordance of predictions were adjusted for the number of pathway locations. Accessory pathways were left-sided in 49, septal in 20 and right-sided in 31 children. Overall accuracy of prediction was 30-49% for the exact location and 61-68% including adjacent locations. Concordance between investigators varied between 41% and 86%. No algorithm was better at predicting septal pathways (accuracy 5-35%, improving to 40-78% including adjacent locations), but one was significantly worse. Predictive accuracy was 24-53% for the exact location of right-sided pathways (50-71% including adjacent locations) and 32-55% for the exact location of left-sided pathways (58-73% including adjacent locations). All algorithms were less accurate in our hands than in other authors' own assessment. None performed well in identifying midseptal or right anteroseptal accessory pathway locations.

Real-time in-flight thrust calculation on a digital electronic engine control-equipped F100 engine in an F-15 airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, R. J.; Myers, L. P.

1984-01-01

Computer algorithms which calculate in-flight engine and aircraft performance real-time are discussed. The first step was completed with the implementation of a real-time thrust calculation program on a digital electronic engine control (DEEC) equiped F100 engine in an F-15 aircraft. The in-flight thrust modifications that allow calculations to be performed in real-time, to compare results to predictions, are presented.

Performance metrics and variance partitioning reveal sources of uncertainty in species distribution models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watling, James I.; Brandt, Laura A.; Bucklin, David N.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romañach, Stephanie; Speroterra, Carolina

2015-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in basic and applied ecology, making it important to understand sources and magnitudes of uncertainty in SDM performance and predictions. We analyzed SDM performance and partitioned variance among prediction maps for 15 rare vertebrate species in the southeastern USA using all possible combinations of seven potential sources of uncertainty in SDMs: algorithms, climate datasets, model domain, species presences, variable collinearity, CO2 emissions scenarios, and general circulation models. The choice of modeling algorithm was the greatest source of uncertainty in SDM performance and prediction maps, with some additional variation in performance associated with the comprehensiveness of the species presences used for modeling. Other sources of uncertainty that have received attention in the SDM literature such as variable collinearity and model domain contributed little to differences in SDM performance or predictions in this study. Predictions from different algorithms tended to be more variable at northern range margins for species with more northern distributions, which may complicate conservation planning at the leading edge of species' geographic ranges. The clear message emerging from this work is that researchers should use multiple algorithms for modeling rather than relying on predictions from a single algorithm, invest resources in compiling a comprehensive set of species presences, and explicitly evaluate uncertainty in SDM predictions at leading range margins.

X-29A Lateral-Directional Stability and Control Derivatives Extracted From High-Angle-of-Attack Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iliff, Kenneth W.; Wang, Kon-Sheng Charles Wang

1996-01-01

The lateral-directional stability and control derivatives of the X-29A number 2 are extracted from flight data over an angle-of-attack range of 4 degrees to 53 degrees using a parameter identification algorithm. The algorithm uses the linearized aircraft equations of motion and a maximum likelihood estimator in the presence of state and measurement noise. State noise is used to model the uncommanded forcing function caused by unsteady aerodynamics over the aircraft at angles of attack above 15 degrees. The results supported the flight-envelope-expansion phase of the X-29A number 2 by helping to update the aerodynamic mathematical model, to improve the real-time simulator, and to revise flight control system laws. Effects of the aircraft high gain flight control system on maneuver quality and the estimated derivatives are also discussed. The derivatives are plotted as functions of angle of attack and compared with the predicted aerodynamic database. Agreement between predicted and flight values is quite good for some derivatives such as the lateral force due to sideslip, the lateral force due to rudder deflection, and the rolling moment due to roll rate. The results also show significant differences in several important derivatives such as the rolling moment due to sideslip, the yawing moment due to sideslip, the yawing moment due to aileron deflection, and the yawing moment due to rudder deflection.

PNS predictions for supersonic/hypersonic flows over finned missile configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhutta, Bilal A.; Lewis, Clark H.

1992-01-01

Finned missile design entails accurate and computationally fast numerical techniques for predicting viscous flows over complex lifting configurations at small to moderate angles of attack and over Mach 3 to 15; these flows are often characterized by strong embedded shocks, so that numerical algorithms are also required to capture embedded shocks. The recent real-gas Flux Vector Splitting technique is here extended to investigate the Mach 3 flow over a typical finned missile configuration with/without side fin deflections. Elliptic grid-generation techniques for Mach 15 flows are shown to be inadequate for Mach 3 flows over finned configurations and need to be modified. Fin-deflection studies indicate that even small amounts of missile fin deflection can substantially modify vehicle aerodynamics. This 3D parabolized Navier-Stokes scheme is also extended into an efficient embedded algorithm for studying small axially separated flow regions due to strong fin and control surface deflections.

Investigation into the influence of build parameters on failure of 3D printed parts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fornasini, Giacomo

Additive manufacturing, including fused deposition modeling (FDM), is transforming the built world and engineering education. Deep understanding of parts created through FDM technology has lagged behind its adoption in home, work, and academic environments. Properties of parts created from bulk materials through traditional manufacturing are understood well enough to accurately predict their behavior through analytical models. Unfortunately, Additive Manufacturing (AM) process parameters create anisotropy on a scale that fundamentally affects the part properties. Understanding AM process parameters (implemented by program algorithms called slicers) is necessary to predict part behavior. Investigating algorithms controlling print parameters (slicers) revealed stark differences between the generation of part layers. In this work, tensile testing experiments, including a full factorial design, determined that three key factors, width, thickness, infill density, and their interactions, significantly affect the tensile properties of 3D printed test samples.

Neural network modeling of drying of rice in BAU-STR dryer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, Md. Ashraful; Saha, Chayan Kumer; Alam, Md. Monjurul; Ashraf, Md. Ali; Bala, Bilash Kanti; Harvey, Jagger

2018-05-01

The experimental performance and artificial neural network modeling of rice drying in BAU-STR dryer is presented in this paper. The dryer consists of a biomass stove as a heat source, a perforated inner bin and a perforated outer bin with annular space for grains, and a blower (1 hp) to supply heated air. The dryer capacity was 500 kg of freshly harvested rice. Twenty experimental runs were conducted to investigate the experimental performance of the dryer for drying of rice. An independent multilayer neural network approach was used to predict the performance of the BAU-STR dryer for drying of rice. Ten sets of experimental data were used for training using back propagation algorithm and another ten sets of data were used for testing the artificial neural network model. The prediction of the performance of the dryer was found to be excellent after it was adequately trained. The statistical analysis showed that the errors (MSE and RMSE) were within and acceptable range of ±5% with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 99%. The model can be used to predict the potential of the dryer for different locations, and can also be used in a predictive optimal control algorithm.

[Application of near infrared spectroscopy combined with particle swarm optimization based least square support vactor machine to rapid quantitative analysis of Corni Fructus].

PubMed

Liu, Xue-song; Sun, Fen-fang; Jin, Ye; Wu, Yong-jiang; Gu, Zhi-xin; Zhu, Li; Yan, Dong-lan

2015-12-01

A novel method was developed for the rapid determination of multi-indicators in corni fructus by means of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) based least squares support vector machine was investigated to increase the levels of quality control. The calibration models of moisture, extractum, morroniside and loganin were established using the PSO-LS-SVM algorithm. The performance of PSO-LS-SVM models was compared with partial least squares regression (PLSR) and back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN). The calibration and validation results of PSO-LS-SVM were superior to both PLS and BP-ANN. For PSO-LS-SVM models, the correlation coefficients (r) of calibrations were all above 0.942. The optimal prediction results were also achieved by PSO-LS-SVM models with the RMSEP (root mean square error of prediction) and RSEP (relative standard errors of prediction) less than 1.176 and 15.5% respectively. The results suggest that PSO-LS-SVM algorithm has a good model performance and high prediction accuracy. NIR has a potential value for rapid determination of multi-indicators in Corni Fructus.

Real-time and simultaneous control of artificial limbs based on pattern recognition algorithms.

PubMed

Ortiz-Catalan, Max; Håkansson, Bo; Brånemark, Rickard

2014-07-01

The prediction of simultaneous limb motions is a highly desirable feature for the control of artificial limbs. In this work, we investigate different classification strategies for individual and simultaneous movements based on pattern recognition of myoelectric signals. Our results suggest that any classifier can be potentially employed in the prediction of simultaneous movements if arranged in a distributed topology. On the other hand, classifiers inherently capable of simultaneous predictions, such as the multi-layer perceptron (MLP), were found to be more cost effective, as they can be successfully employed in their simplest form. In the prediction of individual movements, the one-vs-one (OVO) topology was found to improve classification accuracy across different classifiers and it was therefore used to benchmark the benefits of simultaneous control. As opposed to previous work reporting only offline accuracy, the classification performance and the resulting controllability are evaluated in real time using the motion test and target achievement control (TAC) test, respectively. We propose a simultaneous classification strategy based on MLP that outperformed a top classifier for individual movements (LDA-OVO), thus improving the state-of-the-art classification approach. Furthermore, all the presented classification strategies and data collected in this study are freely available in BioPatRec, an open source platform for the development of advanced prosthetic control strategies.

An Adaptive Intelligent Integrated Lighting Control Approach for High-Performance Office Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karizi, Nasim

An acute and crucial societal problem is the energy consumed in existing commercial buildings. There are 1.5 million commercial buildings in the U.S. with only about 3% being built each year. Hence, existing buildings need to be properly operated and maintained for several decades. Application of integrated centralized control systems in buildings could lead to more than 50% energy savings. This research work demonstrates an innovative adaptive integrated lighting control approach which could achieve significant energy savings and increase indoor comfort in high performance office buildings. In the first phase of the study, a predictive algorithm was developed and validated through experiments in an actual test room. The objective was to regulate daylight on a specified work plane by controlling the blind slat angles. Furthermore, a sensor-based integrated adaptive lighting controller was designed in Simulink which included an innovative sensor optimization approach based on genetic algorithm to minimize the number of sensors and efficiently place them in the office. The controller was designed based on simple integral controllers. The objective of developed control algorithm was to improve the illuminance situation in the office through controlling the daylight and electrical lighting. To evaluate the performance of the system, the controller was applied on experimental office model in Lee et al.'s research study in 1998. The result of the developed control approach indicate a significantly improvement in lighting situation and 1-23% and 50-78% monthly electrical energy savings in the office model, compared to two static strategies when the blinds were left open and closed during the whole year respectively.

A Project-Based Laboratory for Learning Embedded System Design with Industry Support

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Chyi-Shyong; Su, Juing-Huei; Lin, Kuo-En; Chang, Jia-Hao; Lin, Gu-Hong

2010-01-01

A project-based laboratory for learning embedded system design with support from industry is presented in this paper. The aim of this laboratory is to motivate students to learn the building blocks of embedded systems and practical control algorithms by constructing a line-following robot using the quadratic interpolation technique to predict the…

Trust-Based Design of Human-Guided Algorithms

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

Management Interdepartmental Program in Operations Research 17 May, 2007 Approved by: Laura Major Forest The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory...2. Information Analysis: predicting based on data, integrating and managing information, augmenting human operator perception and cognition. 3...allocation of automation by designers and managers . How an operator decides between manual and automatic control of a system is a necessary

An In-Process Surface Roughness Recognition System in End Milling Operations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Lieh-Dai; Chen, Joseph C.

2004-01-01

To develop an in-process quality control system, a sensor technique and a decision-making algorithm need to be applied during machining operations. Several sensor techniques have been used in the in-process prediction of quality characteristics in machining operations. For example, an accelerometer sensor can be used to monitor the vibration of…

Training the Recurrent neural network by the Fuzzy Min-Max algorithm for fault prediction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zemouri, Ryad; Racoceanu, Daniel; Zerhouni, Noureddine

2009-03-05

In this paper, we present a training technique of a Recurrent Radial Basis Function neural network for fault prediction. We use the Fuzzy Min-Max technique to initialize the k-center of the RRBF neural network. The k-means algorithm is then applied to calculate the centers that minimize the mean square error of the prediction task. The performances of the k-means algorithm are then boosted by the Fuzzy Min-Max technique.

Application of Avco data analysis and prediction techniques (ADAPT) to prediction of sunspot activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunter, H. E.; Amato, R. A.

1972-01-01

The results are presented of the application of Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) to derivation of new algorithms for the prediction of future sunspot activity. The ADAPT derived algorithms show a factor of 2 to 3 reduction in the expected 2-sigma errors in the estimates of the 81-day running average of the Zurich sunspot numbers. The report presents: (1) the best estimates for sunspot cycles 20 and 21, (2) a comparison of the ADAPT performance with conventional techniques, and (3) specific approaches to further reduction in the errors of estimated sunspot activity and to recovery of earlier sunspot historical data. The ADAPT programs are used both to derive regression algorithm for prediction of the entire 11-year sunspot cycle from the preceding two cycles and to derive extrapolation algorithms for extrapolating a given sunspot cycle based on any available portion of the cycle.

Prediction of monthly rainfall in Victoria, Australia: Clusterwise linear regression approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagirov, Adil M.; Mahmood, Arshad; Barton, Andrew

2017-05-01

This paper develops the Clusterwise Linear Regression (CLR) technique for prediction of monthly rainfall. The CLR is a combination of clustering and regression techniques. It is formulated as an optimization problem and an incremental algorithm is designed to solve it. The algorithm is applied to predict monthly rainfall in Victoria, Australia using rainfall data with five input meteorological variables over the period of 1889-2014 from eight geographically diverse weather stations. The prediction performance of the CLR method is evaluated by comparing observed and predicted rainfall values using four measures of forecast accuracy. The proposed method is also compared with the CLR using the maximum likelihood framework by the expectation-maximization algorithm, multiple linear regression, artificial neural networks and the support vector machines for regression models using computational results. The results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms other methods in most locations.

Integration of Irma tactical scene generator into directed-energy weapon system simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owens, Monte A.; Cole, Madison B., III; Laine, Mark R.

2003-08-01

Integrated high-fidelity physics-based simulations that include engagement models, image generation, electro-optical hardware models and control system algorithms have previously been developed by Boeing-SVS for various tracking and pointing systems. These simulations, however, had always used images with featureless or random backgrounds and simple target geometries. With the requirement to engage tactical ground targets in the presence of cluttered backgrounds, a new type of scene generation tool was required to fully evaluate system performance in this challenging environment. To answer this need, Irma was integrated into the existing suite of Boeing-SVS simulation tools, allowing scene generation capabilities with unprecedented realism. Irma is a US Air Force research tool used for high-resolution rendering and prediction of target and background signatures. The MATLAB/Simulink-based simulation achieves closed-loop tracking by running track algorithms on the Irma-generated images, processing the track errors through optical control algorithms, and moving simulated electro-optical elements. The geometry of these elements determines the sensor orientation with respect to the Irma database containing the three-dimensional background and target models. This orientation is dynamically passed to Irma through a Simulink S-function to generate the next image. This integrated simulation provides a test-bed for development and evaluation of tracking and control algorithms against representative images including complex background environments and realistic targets calibrated using field measurements.

Comparing Binaural Pre-processing Strategies I: Instrumental Evaluation.

PubMed

Baumgärtel, Regina M; Krawczyk-Becker, Martin; Marquardt, Daniel; Völker, Christoph; Hu, Hongmei; Herzke, Tobias; Coleman, Graham; Adiloğlu, Kamil; Ernst, Stephan M A; Gerkmann, Timo; Doclo, Simon; Kollmeier, Birger; Hohmann, Volker; Dietz, Mathias

2015-12-30

In a collaborative research project, several monaural and binaural noise reduction algorithms have been comprehensively evaluated. In this article, eight selected noise reduction algorithms were assessed using instrumental measures, with a focus on the instrumental evaluation of speech intelligibility. Four distinct, reverberant scenarios were created to reflect everyday listening situations: a stationary speech-shaped noise, a multitalker babble noise, a single interfering talker, and a realistic cafeteria noise. Three instrumental measures were employed to assess predicted speech intelligibility and predicted sound quality: the intelligibility-weighted signal-to-noise ratio, the short-time objective intelligibility measure, and the perceptual evaluation of speech quality. The results show substantial improvements in predicted speech intelligibility as well as sound quality for the proposed algorithms. The evaluated coherence-based noise reduction algorithm was able to provide improvements in predicted audio signal quality. For the tested single-channel noise reduction algorithm, improvements in intelligibility-weighted signal-to-noise ratio were observed in all but the nonstationary cafeteria ambient noise scenario. Binaural minimum variance distortionless response beamforming algorithms performed particularly well in all noise scenarios. © The Author(s) 2015.

Comparing Binaural Pre-processing Strategies I

PubMed Central

Krawczyk-Becker, Martin; Marquardt, Daniel; Völker, Christoph; Hu, Hongmei; Herzke, Tobias; Coleman, Graham; Adiloğlu, Kamil; Ernst, Stephan M. A.; Gerkmann, Timo; Doclo, Simon; Kollmeier, Birger; Hohmann, Volker; Dietz, Mathias

2015-01-01

In a collaborative research project, several monaural and binaural noise reduction algorithms have been comprehensively evaluated. In this article, eight selected noise reduction algorithms were assessed using instrumental measures, with a focus on the instrumental evaluation of speech intelligibility. Four distinct, reverberant scenarios were created to reflect everyday listening situations: a stationary speech-shaped noise, a multitalker babble noise, a single interfering talker, and a realistic cafeteria noise. Three instrumental measures were employed to assess predicted speech intelligibility and predicted sound quality: the intelligibility-weighted signal-to-noise ratio, the short-time objective intelligibility measure, and the perceptual evaluation of speech quality. The results show substantial improvements in predicted speech intelligibility as well as sound quality for the proposed algorithms. The evaluated coherence-based noise reduction algorithm was able to provide improvements in predicted audio signal quality. For the tested single-channel noise reduction algorithm, improvements in intelligibility-weighted signal-to-noise ratio were observed in all but the nonstationary cafeteria ambient noise scenario. Binaural minimum variance distortionless response beamforming algorithms performed particularly well in all noise scenarios. PMID:26721920

Prediction of dynamical systems by symbolic regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quade, Markus; Abel, Markus; Shafi, Kamran; Niven, Robert K.; Noack, Bernd R.

2016-07-01

We study the modeling and prediction of dynamical systems based on conventional models derived from measurements. Such algorithms are highly desirable in situations where the underlying dynamics are hard to model from physical principles or simplified models need to be found. We focus on symbolic regression methods as a part of machine learning. These algorithms are capable of learning an analytically tractable model from data, a highly valuable property. Symbolic regression methods can be considered as generalized regression methods. We investigate two particular algorithms, the so-called fast function extraction which is a generalized linear regression algorithm, and genetic programming which is a very general method. Both are able to combine functions in a certain way such that a good model for the prediction of the temporal evolution of a dynamical system can be identified. We illustrate the algorithms by finding a prediction for the evolution of a harmonic oscillator based on measurements, by detecting an arriving front in an excitable system, and as a real-world application, the prediction of solar power production based on energy production observations at a given site together with the weather forecast.

Literature-based condition-specific miRNA-mRNA target prediction.

PubMed

Oh, Minsik; Rhee, Sungmin; Moon, Ji Hwan; Chae, Heejoon; Lee, Sunwon; Kang, Jaewoo; Kim, Sun

2017-01-01

miRNAs are small non-coding RNAs that regulate gene expression by binding to the 3'-UTR of genes. Many recent studies have reported that miRNAs play important biological roles by regulating specific mRNAs or genes. Many sequence-based target prediction algorithms have been developed to predict miRNA targets. However, these methods are not designed for condition-specific target predictions and produce many false positives; thus, expression-based target prediction algorithms have been developed for condition-specific target predictions. A typical strategy to utilize expression data is to leverage the negative control roles of miRNAs on genes. To control false positives, a stringent cutoff value is typically set, but in this case, these methods tend to reject many true target relationships, i.e., false negatives. To overcome these limitations, additional information should be utilized. The literature is probably the best resource that we can utilize. Recent literature mining systems compile millions of articles with experiments designed for specific biological questions, and the systems provide a function to search for specific information. To utilize the literature information, we used a literature mining system, BEST, that automatically extracts information from the literature in PubMed and that allows the user to perform searches of the literature with any English words. By integrating omics data analysis methods and BEST, we developed Context-MMIA, a miRNA-mRNA target prediction method that combines expression data analysis results and the literature information extracted based on the user-specified context. In the pathway enrichment analysis using genes included in the top 200 miRNA-targets, Context-MMIA outperformed the four existing target prediction methods that we tested. In another test on whether prediction methods can re-produce experimentally validated target relationships, Context-MMIA outperformed the four existing target prediction methods. In summary, Context-MMIA allows the user to specify a context of the experimental data to predict miRNA targets, and we believe that Context-MMIA is very useful for predicting condition-specific miRNA targets.

A novel frame-level constant-distortion bit allocation for smooth H.264/AVC video quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li; Zhuang, Xinhua

2009-01-01

It is known that quality fluctuation has a major negative effect on visual perception. In previous work, we introduced a constant-distortion bit allocation method [1] for H.263+ encoder. However, the method in [1] can not be adapted to the newest H.264/AVC encoder directly as the well-known chicken-egg dilemma resulted from the rate-distortion optimization (RDO) decision process. To solve this problem, we propose a new two stage constant-distortion bit allocation (CDBA) algorithm with enhanced rate control for H.264/AVC encoder. In stage-1, the algorithm performs RD optimization process with a constant quantization QP. Based on prediction residual signals from stage-1 and target distortion for smooth video quality purpose, the frame-level bit target is allocated by using a close-form approximations of ratedistortion relationship similar to [1], and a fast stage-2 encoding process is performed with enhanced basic unit rate control. Experimental results show that, compared with original rate control algorithm provided by H.264/AVC reference software JM12.1, the proposed constant-distortion frame-level bit allocation scheme reduces quality fluctuation and delivers much smoother PSNR on all testing sequences.

Code-based Diagnostic Algorithms for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis. Case Validation and Improvement.

PubMed

Ley, Brett; Urbania, Thomas; Husson, Gail; Vittinghoff, Eric; Brush, David R; Eisner, Mark D; Iribarren, Carlos; Collard, Harold R

2017-06-01

Population-based studies of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) in the United States have been limited by reliance on diagnostic code-based algorithms that lack clinical validation. To validate a well-accepted International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, code-based algorithm for IPF using patient-level information and to develop a modified algorithm for IPF with enhanced predictive value. The traditional IPF algorithm was used to identify potential cases of IPF in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California adult population from 2000 to 2014. Incidence and prevalence were determined overall and by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. A validation subset of cases (n = 150) underwent expert medical record and chest computed tomography review. A modified IPF algorithm was then derived and validated to optimize positive predictive value. From 2000 to 2014, the traditional IPF algorithm identified 2,608 cases among 5,389,627 at-risk adults in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California population. Annual incidence was 6.8/100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.1-7.7) and was higher in patients with older age, male sex, and white race. The positive predictive value of the IPF algorithm was only 42.2% (95% CI, 30.6 to 54.6%); sensitivity was 55.6% (95% CI, 21.2 to 86.3%). The corrected incidence was estimated at 5.6/100,000 person-years (95% CI, 2.6-10.3). A modified IPF algorithm had improved positive predictive value but reduced sensitivity compared with the traditional algorithm. A well-accepted International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, code-based IPF algorithm performs poorly, falsely classifying many non-IPF cases as IPF and missing a substantial proportion of IPF cases. A modification of the IPF algorithm may be useful for future population-based studies of IPF.

Connecting a cognitive architecture to robotic perception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurup, Unmesh; Lebiere, Christian; Stentz, Anthony; Hebert, Martial

2012-06-01

We present an integrated architecture in which perception and cognition interact and provide information to each other leading to improved performance in real-world situations. Our system integrates the Felzenswalb et. al. object-detection algorithm with the ACT-R cognitive architecture. The targeted task is to predict and classify pedestrian behavior in a checkpoint scenario, most specifically to discriminate between normal versus checkpoint-avoiding behavior. The Felzenswalb algorithm is a learning-based algorithm for detecting and localizing objects in images. ACT-R is a cognitive architecture that has been successfully used to model human cognition with a high degree of fidelity on tasks ranging from basic decision-making to the control of complex systems such as driving or air traffic control. The Felzenswalb algorithm detects pedestrians in the image and provides ACT-R a set of features based primarily on their locations. ACT-R uses its pattern-matching capabilities, specifically its partial-matching and blending mechanisms, to track objects across multiple images and classify their behavior based on the sequence of observed features. ACT-R also provides feedback to the Felzenswalb algorithm in the form of expected object locations that allow the algorithm to eliminate false-positives and improve its overall performance. This capability is an instance of the benefits pursued in developing a richer interaction between bottom-up perceptual processes and top-down goal-directed cognition. We trained the system on individual behaviors (only one person in the scene) and evaluated its performance across single and multiple behavior sets.

A range-based predictive localization algorithm for WSID networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yuan; Chen, Junjie; Li, Gang

2017-11-01

Most studies on localization algorithms are conducted on the sensor networks with densely distributed nodes. However, the non-localizable problems are prone to occur in the network with sparsely distributed sensor nodes. To solve this problem, a range-based predictive localization algorithm (RPLA) is proposed in this paper for the wireless sensor networks syncretizing the RFID (WSID) networks. The Gaussian mixture model is established to predict the trajectory of a mobile target. Then, the received signal strength indication is used to reduce the residence area of the target location based on the approximate point-in-triangulation test algorithm. In addition, collaborative localization schemes are introduced to locate the target in the non-localizable situations. Simulation results verify that the RPLA achieves accurate localization for the network with sparsely distributed sensor nodes. The localization accuracy of the RPLA is 48.7% higher than that of the APIT algorithm, 16.8% higher than that of the single Gaussian model-based algorithm and 10.5% higher than that of the Kalman filtering-based algorithm.

Design, implementation and evaluation of a practical pseudoknot folding algorithm based on thermodynamics

PubMed Central

Reeder, Jens; Giegerich, Robert

2004-01-01

Background The general problem of RNA secondary structure prediction under the widely used thermodynamic model is known to be NP-complete when the structures considered include arbitrary pseudoknots. For restricted classes of pseudoknots, several polynomial time algorithms have been designed, where the O(n6)time and O(n4) space algorithm by Rivas and Eddy is currently the best available program. Results We introduce the class of canonical simple recursive pseudoknots and present an algorithm that requires O(n4) time and O(n2) space to predict the energetically optimal structure of an RNA sequence, possible containing such pseudoknots. Evaluation against a large collection of known pseudoknotted structures shows the adequacy of the canonization approach and our algorithm. Conclusions RNA pseudoknots of medium size can now be predicted reliably as well as efficiently by the new algorithm. PMID:15294028

Pharmacogenetics-based warfarin dosing algorithm decreases time to stable anticoagulation and the risk of major hemorrhage: an updated meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Wang, Zhi-Quan; Zhang, Rui; Zhang, Peng-Pai; Liu, Xiao-Hong; Sun, Jian; Wang, Jun; Feng, Xiang-Fei; Lu, Qiu-Fen; Li, Yi-Gang

2015-04-01

Warfarin is yet the most widely used oral anticoagulant for thromboembolic diseases, despite the recently emerged novel anticoagulants. However, difficulty in maintaining stable dose within the therapeutic range and subsequent serious adverse effects markedly limited its use in clinical practice. Pharmacogenetics-based warfarin dosing algorithm is a recently emerged strategy to predict the initial and maintaining dose of warfarin. However, whether this algorithm is superior over conventional clinically guided dosing algorithm remains controversial. We made a comparison of pharmacogenetics-based versus clinically guided dosing algorithm by an updated meta-analysis. We searched OVID MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library for relevant citations. The primary outcome was the percentage of time in therapeutic range. The secondary outcomes were time to stable therapeutic dose and the risks of adverse events including all-cause mortality, thromboembolic events, total bleedings, and major bleedings. Eleven randomized controlled trials with 2639 participants were included. Our pooled estimates indicated that pharmacogenetics-based dosing algorithm did not improve percentage of time in therapeutic range [weighted mean difference, 4.26; 95% confidence interval (CI), -0.50 to 9.01; P = 0.08], but it significantly shortened the time to stable therapeutic dose (weighted mean difference, -8.67; 95% CI, -11.86 to -5.49; P < 0.00001). Additionally, pharmacogenetics-based algorithm significantly reduced the risk of major bleedings (odds ratio, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.23 to 0.98; P = 0.04), but it did not reduce the risks of all-cause mortality, total bleedings, or thromboembolic events. Our results suggest that pharmacogenetics-based warfarin dosing algorithm significantly improves the efficiency of International Normalized Ratio correction and reduces the risk of major hemorrhage.

The utility and limitations of current web-available algorithms to predict peptides recognized by CD4 T cells in response to pathogen infection #

PubMed Central

Chaves, Francisco A.; Lee, Alvin H.; Nayak, Jennifer; Richards, Katherine A.; Sant, Andrea J.

2012-01-01

The ability to track CD4 T cells elicited in response to pathogen infection or vaccination is critical because of the role these cells play in protective immunity. Coupled with advances in genome sequencing of pathogenic organisms, there is considerable appeal for implementation of computer-based algorithms to predict peptides that bind to the class II molecules, forming the complex recognized by CD4 T cells. Despite recent progress in this area, there is a paucity of data regarding their success in identifying actual pathogen-derived epitopes. In this study, we sought to rigorously evaluate the performance of multiple web-available algorithms by comparing their predictions and our results using purely empirical methods for epitope discovery in influenza that utilized overlapping peptides and cytokine Elispots, for three independent class II molecules. We analyzed the data in different ways, trying to anticipate how an investigator might use these computational tools for epitope discovery. We come to the conclusion that currently available algorithms can indeed facilitate epitope discovery, but all shared a high degree of false positive and false negative predictions. Therefore, efficiencies were low. We also found dramatic disparities among algorithms and between predicted IC50 values and true dissociation rates of peptide:MHC class II complexes. We suggest that improved success of predictive algorithms will depend less on changes in computational methods or increased data sets and more on changes in parameters used to “train” the algorithms that factor in elements of T cell repertoire and peptide acquisition by class II molecules. PMID:22467652

Predicting the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking in primary care: development and validation of a simple risk algorithm.

PubMed

Bellón, Juan Ángel; de Dios Luna, Juan; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Motrico, Emma; GildeGómez-Barragán, María Josefa; Torres-González, Francisco; Montón-Franco, Carmen; Sánchez-Celaya, Marta; Díaz-Barreiros, Miguel Ángel; Vicens, Catalina; Moreno-Peral, Patricia

2017-04-01

Little is known about the risk of progressing to hazardous alcohol use in abstinent or low-risk drinkers. To develop and validate a simple brief risk algorithm for the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking (HAD) over 12 months for use in primary care. Prospective cohort study in 32 health centres from six Spanish provinces, with evaluations at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. Forty-one risk factors were measured and multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting were used to build the risk algorithm. The outcome was new occurrence of HAD during the study, as measured by the AUDIT. From the lists of 174 GPs, 3954 adult abstinent or low-risk drinkers were recruited. The 'predictAL-10' risk algorithm included just nine variables (10 questions): province, sex, age, cigarette consumption, perception of financial strain, having ever received treatment for an alcohol problem, childhood sexual abuse, AUDIT-C, and interaction AUDIT-C*Age. The c-index was 0.886 (95% CI = 0.854 to 0.918). The optimal cutoff had a sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.80. Excluding childhood sexual abuse from the model (the 'predictAL-9'), the c-index was 0.880 (95% CI = 0.847 to 0.913), sensitivity 0.79, and specificity 0.81. There was no statistically significant difference between the c-indexes of predictAL-10 and predictAL-9. The predictAL-10/9 is a simple and internally valid risk algorithm to predict the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking over 12 months in primary care attendees; it is a brief tool that is potentially useful for primary prevention of hazardous alcohol drinking. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

Predicting missing links and identifying spurious links via likelihood analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Liming; Zhou, Tao; Lü, Linyuan; Hu, Chin-Kun

2016-03-01

Real network data is often incomplete and noisy, where link prediction algorithms and spurious link identification algorithms can be applied. Thus far, it lacks a general method to transform network organizing mechanisms to link prediction algorithms. Here we use an algorithmic framework where a network’s probability is calculated according to a predefined structural Hamiltonian that takes into account the network organizing principles, and a non-observed link is scored by the conditional probability of adding the link to the observed network. Extensive numerical simulations show that the proposed algorithm has remarkably higher accuracy than the state-of-the-art methods in uncovering missing links and identifying spurious links in many complex biological and social networks. Such method also finds applications in exploring the underlying network evolutionary mechanisms.

Predicting missing links and identifying spurious links via likelihood analysis

PubMed Central

Pan, Liming; Zhou, Tao; Lü, Linyuan; Hu, Chin-Kun

2016-01-01

Real network data is often incomplete and noisy, where link prediction algorithms and spurious link identification algorithms can be applied. Thus far, it lacks a general method to transform network organizing mechanisms to link prediction algorithms. Here we use an algorithmic framework where a network’s probability is calculated according to a predefined structural Hamiltonian that takes into account the network organizing principles, and a non-observed link is scored by the conditional probability of adding the link to the observed network. Extensive numerical simulations show that the proposed algorithm has remarkably higher accuracy than the state-of-the-art methods in uncovering missing links and identifying spurious links in many complex biological and social networks. Such method also finds applications in exploring the underlying network evolutionary mechanisms. PMID:26961965

Traffic Noise Ground Attenuation Algorithm Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, Lloyd Allen

The Federal Highway Administration traffic noise prediction program, STAMINA 2.0, was evaluated for its accuracy. In addition, the ground attenuation algorithm used in the Ontario ORNAMENT method was evaluated to determine its potential to improve these predictions. Field measurements of sound levels were made at 41 sites on I-440 in Nashville, Tennessee in order to both study noise barrier effectiveness and to evaluate STAMINA 2.0 and the performance of the ORNAMENT ground attenuation algorithm. The measurement sites, which contain large variations in terrain, included several cross sections. Further, all sites contain some type of barrier, natural or constructed, which could more fully expose the strength and weaknesses of the ground attenuation algorithms. The noise barrier evaluation was accomplished in accordance with American National Standard Methods for Determination of Insertion Loss of Outdoor Noise Barriers which resulted in an evaluation of this standard. The entire 7.2 mile length of I-440 was modeled using STAMINA 2.0. A multiple run procedure was developed to emulate the results that would be obtained if the ORNAMENT algorithm was incorporated into STAMINA 2.0. Finally, the predicted noise levels based on STAMINA 2.0 and STAMINA with the ORNAMENT ground attenuation algorithm were compared with each other and with the field measurements. It was found that STAMINA 2.0 overpredicted noise levels by an average of over 2 dB for the receivers on I-440, whereas, the STAMINA with ORNAMENT ground attenuation algorithm overpredicted noise levels by an average of less than 0.5 dB. The mean errors for the two predictions were found to be statistically different from each other, and the mean error for the prediction with the ORNAMENT ground attenuation algorithm was not found to be statistically different from zero. The STAMINA 2.0 program predicts little, if any, ground attenuation for receivers at typical first-row distances from highways where noise barriers are used. The ORNAMENT ground attenuation algorithm, which recognizes and better compensates for the presence of obstacles in the propagation path of a sound wave, predicted significant amounts of ground attenuation for most sites.

The gradient boosting algorithm and random boosting for genome-assisted evaluation in large data sets.

PubMed

González-Recio, O; Jiménez-Montero, J A; Alenda, R

2013-01-01

In the next few years, with the advent of high-density single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays and genome sequencing, genomic evaluation methods will need to deal with a large number of genetic variants and an increasing sample size. The boosting algorithm is a machine-learning technique that may alleviate the drawbacks of dealing with such large data sets. This algorithm combines different predictors in a sequential manner with some shrinkage on them; each predictor is applied consecutively to the residuals from the committee formed by the previous ones to form a final prediction based on a subset of covariates. Here, a detailed description is provided and examples using a toy data set are included. A modification of the algorithm called "random boosting" was proposed to increase predictive ability and decrease computation time of genome-assisted evaluation in large data sets. Random boosting uses a random selection of markers to add a subsequent weak learner to the predictive model. These modifications were applied to a real data set composed of 1,797 bulls genotyped for 39,714 SNP. Deregressed proofs of 4 yield traits and 1 type trait from January 2009 routine evaluations were used as dependent variables. A 2-fold cross-validation scenario was implemented. Sires born before 2005 were used as a training sample (1,576 and 1,562 for production and type traits, respectively), whereas younger sires were used as a testing sample to evaluate predictive ability of the algorithm on yet-to-be-observed phenotypes. Comparison with the original algorithm was provided. The predictive ability of the algorithm was measured as Pearson correlations between observed and predicted responses. Further, estimated bias was computed as the average difference between observed and predicted phenotypes. The results showed that the modification of the original boosting algorithm could be run in 1% of the time used with the original algorithm and with negligible differences in accuracy and bias. This modification may be used to speed the calculus of genome-assisted evaluation in large data sets such us those obtained from consortiums. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A numerical solution of Duffing's equations including the prediction of jump phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moyer, E. T., Jr.; Ghasghai-Abdi, E.

1987-01-01

Numerical methodology for the solution of Duffing's differential equation is presented. Algorithms for the prediction of multiple equilibrium solutions and jump phenomena are developed. In addition, a filtering algorithm for producing steady state solutions is presented. The problem of a rigidly clamped circular plate subjected to cosinusoidal pressure loading is solved using the developed algorithms (the plate is assumed to be in the geometrically nonlinear range). The results accurately predict regions of solution multiplicity and jump phenomena.

Statistical Relational Learning to Predict Primary Myocardial Infarction from Electronic Health Records

PubMed Central

Weiss, Jeremy C; Page, David; Peissig, Peggy L; Natarajan, Sriraam; McCarty, Catherine

2013-01-01

Electronic health records (EHRs) are an emerging relational domain with large potential to improve clinical outcomes. We apply two statistical relational learning (SRL) algorithms to the task of predicting primary myocardial infarction. We show that one SRL algorithm, relational functional gradient boosting, outperforms propositional learners particularly in the medically-relevant high recall region. We observe that both SRL algorithms predict outcomes better than their propositional analogs and suggest how our methods can augment current epidemiological practices. PMID:25360347

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Devpura, S; Li, H; Liu, C

Purpose: To correlate dose distributions computed using six algorithms for recurrent early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT), with outcome (local failure). Methods: Of 270 NSCLC patients treated with 12Gyx4, 20 were found to have local recurrence prior to the 2-year time point. These patients were originally planned with 1-D pencil beam (1-D PB) algorithm. 4D imaging was performed to manage tumor motion. Regions of local failures were determined from follow-up PET-CT scans. Follow-up CT images were rigidly fused to the planning CT (pCT), and recurrent tumor volumes (Vrecur) were mapped to themore » pCT. Dose was recomputed, retrospectively, using five algorithms: 3-D PB, collapsed cone convolution (CCC), anisotropic analytical algorithm (AAA), AcurosXB, and Monte Carlo (MC). Tumor control probability (TCP) was computed using the Marsden model (1,2). Patterns of failure were classified as central, in-field, marginal, and distant for Vrecur ≥95% of prescribed dose, 95–80%, 80–20%, and ≤20%, respectively (3). Results: Average PTV D95 (dose covering 95% of the PTV) for 3-D PB, CCC, AAA, AcurosXB, and MC relative to 1-D PB were 95.3±2.1%, 84.1±7.5%, 84.9±5.7%, 86.3±6.0%, and 85.1±7.0%, respectively. TCP values for 1-D PB, 3-D PB, CCC, AAA, AcurosXB, and MC were 98.5±1.2%, 95.7±3.0, 79.6±16.1%, 79.7±16.5%, 81.1±17.5%, and 78.1±20%, respectively. Patterns of local failures were similar for 1-D and 3D PB plans, which predicted that the majority of failures occur in centraldistal regions, with only ∼15% occurring distantly. However, with convolution/superposition and MC type algorithms, the majority of failures (65%) were predicted to be distant, consistent with the literature. Conclusion: Based on MC and convolution/superposition type algorithms, average PTV D95 and TCP were ∼15% lower than the planned 1-D PB dose calculation. Patterns of failure results suggest that MC and convolution/superposition type algorithms predict different outcomes for patterns of failure relative to PB algorithms. Work supported in part by Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, CA.« less

Loads and aeroelasticity division research and technology accomplishments for FY 1983 and plans for FY 1984

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gardner, J. E.; Dixon, S. C.

1984-01-01

Research was done in the following areas: development and validation of solution algorithms, modeling techniques, integrated finite elements for flow-thermal-structural analysis and design, optimization of aircraft and spacecraft for the best performance, reduction of loads and increase in the dynamic structural stability of flexible airframes by the use of active control, methods for predicting steady and unsteady aerodynamic loads and aeroelastic characteristics of flight vehicles with emphasis on the transonic range, and methods for predicting and reducing helicoper vibrations.

Model predictive control of a solar-thermal reactor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saade Saade, Maria Elizabeth

Solar-thermal reactors represent a promising alternative to fossil fuels because they can harvest solar energy and transform it into storable and transportable fuels. The operation of solar-thermal reactors is restricted by the available sunlight and its inherently transient behavior, which affects the performance of the reactors and limits their efficiency. Before solar-thermal reactors can become commercially viable, they need to be able to maintain a continuous high-performance operation, even in the presence of passing clouds. A well-designed control system can preserve product quality and maintain stable product compositions, resulting in a more efficient and cost-effective operation, which can ultimately lead to scale-up and commercialization of solar thermochemical technologies. In this work, we propose a model predictive control (MPC) system for a solar-thermal reactor for the steam-gasification of biomass. The proposed controller aims at rejecting the disturbances in solar irradiation caused by the presence of clouds. A first-principles dynamic model of the process was developed. The model was used to study the dynamic responses of the process variables and to identify a linear time-invariant model used in the MPC algorithm. To provide an estimation of the disturbances for the control algorithm, a one-minute-ahead direct normal irradiance (DNI) predictor was developed. The proposed predictor utilizes information obtained through the analysis of sky images, in combination with current atmospheric measurements, to produce the DNI forecast. In the end, a robust controller was designed capable of rejecting disturbances within the operating region. Extensive simulation experiments showed that the controller outperforms a finely-tuned multi-loop feedback control strategy. The results obtained suggest that our controller is suitable for practical implementation.

Periodic-Zone Model Predictive Control for Diurnal Closed-Loop Operation of an Artificial Pancreas

PubMed Central

Gondhalekar, Ravi; Dassau, Eyal; Zisser, Howard C.; Doyle, Francis J.

2013-01-01

Background The objective of this research is an artificial pancreas (AP) that performs automatic regulation of blood glucose levels in people with type 1 diabetes mellitus. This article describes a control strategy that performs algorithmic insulin dosing for maintaining safe blood glucose levels over prolonged, overnight periods of time and furthermore was designed with outpatient, multiday deployment in mind. Of particular concern is the prevention of nocturnal hypoglycemia, because during sleep, subjects cannot monitor themselves and may not respond to alarms. An AP intended for prolonged and unsupervised outpatient deployment must strategically reduce the risk of hypoglycemia during times of sleep, without requiring user interaction. Methods A diurnal insulin delivery strategy based on predictive control methods is proposed. The so-called “periodic-zone model predictive control” (PZMPC) strategy employs periodically time-dependent blood glucose output target zones and furthermore enforces periodically time-dependent insulin input constraints to modulate its behavior based on the time of day. Results The proposed strategy was evaluated through an extensive simulation-based study and a preliminary clinical trial. Results indicate that the proposed method delivers insulin more conservatively during nighttime than during daytime while maintaining safe blood glucose levels at all times. In clinical trials, the proposed strategy delivered 77% of the amount of insulin delivered by a time-invariant control strategy; specifically, it delivered on average 1.23 U below, compared with 0.31 U above, the nominal basal rate overnight while maintaining comparable, and safe, blood glucose values. Conclusions The proposed PZMPC algorithm strategically prevents nocturnal hypoglycemia and is considered a significant step toward deploying APs into outpatient environments for extended periods of time in full closed-loop operation. PMID:24351171

Adaptive envelope protection methods for aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unnikrishnan, Suraj

Carefree handling refers to the ability of a pilot to operate an aircraft without the need to continuously monitor aircraft operating limits. At the heart of all carefree handling or maneuvering systems, also referred to as envelope protection systems, are algorithms and methods for predicting future limit violations. Recently, envelope protection methods that have gained more acceptance, translate limit proximity information to its equivalent in the control channel. Envelope protection algorithms either use very small prediction horizon or are static methods with no capability to adapt to changes in system configurations. Adaptive approaches maximizing prediction horizon such as dynamic trim, are only applicable to steady-state-response critical limit parameters. In this thesis, a new adaptive envelope protection method is developed that is applicable to steady-state and transient response critical limit parameters. The approach is based upon devising the most aggressive optimal control profile to the limit boundary and using it to compute control limits. Pilot-in-the-loop evaluations of the proposed approach are conducted at the Georgia Tech Carefree Maneuver lab for transient longitudinal hub moment limit protection. Carefree maneuvering is the dual of carefree handling in the realm of autonomous Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Designing a flight control system to fully and effectively utilize the operational flight envelope is very difficult. With the increasing role and demands for extreme maneuverability there is a need for developing envelope protection methods for autonomous UAVs. In this thesis, a full-authority automatic envelope protection method is proposed for limit protection in UAVs. The approach uses adaptive estimate of limit parameter dynamics and finite-time horizon predictions to detect impending limit boundary violations. Limit violations are prevented by treating the limit boundary as an obstacle and by correcting nominal control/command inputs to track a limit parameter safe-response profile near the limit boundary. The method is evaluated using software-in-the-loop and flight evaluations on the Georgia Tech unmanned rotorcraft platform---GTMax. The thesis also develops and evaluates an extension for calculating control margins based on restricting limit parameter response aggressiveness near the limit boundary.

State-Dependent Decoding Algorithms Improve the Performance of a Bidirectional BMI in Anesthetized Rats.

PubMed

De Feo, Vito; Boi, Fabio; Safaai, Houman; Onken, Arno; Panzeri, Stefano; Vato, Alessandro

2017-01-01

Brain-machine interfaces (BMIs) promise to improve the quality of life of patients suffering from sensory and motor disabilities by creating a direct communication channel between the brain and the external world. Yet, their performance is currently limited by the relatively small amount of information that can be decoded from neural activity recorded form the brain. We have recently proposed that such decoding performance may be improved when using state-dependent decoding algorithms that predict and discount the large component of the trial-to-trial variability of neural activity which is due to the dependence of neural responses on the network's current internal state. Here we tested this idea by using a bidirectional BMI to investigate the gain in performance arising from using a state-dependent decoding algorithm. This BMI, implemented in anesthetized rats, controlled the movement of a dynamical system using neural activity decoded from motor cortex and fed back to the brain the dynamical system's position by electrically microstimulating somatosensory cortex. We found that using state-dependent algorithms that tracked the dynamics of ongoing activity led to an increase in the amount of information extracted form neural activity by 22%, with a consequently increase in all of the indices measuring the BMI's performance in controlling the dynamical system. This suggests that state-dependent decoding algorithms may be used to enhance BMIs at moderate computational cost.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zawisza, I; Yan, H; Yin, F

Purpose: To assure that tumor motion is within the radiation field during high-dose and high-precision radiosurgery, real-time imaging and surrogate monitoring are employed. These methods are useful in providing real-time tumor/surrogate motion but no future information is available. In order to anticipate future tumor/surrogate motion and track target location precisely, an algorithm is developed and investigated for estimating surrogate motion multiple-steps ahead. Methods: The study utilized a one-dimensional surrogate motion signal divided into three components: (a) training component containing the primary data including the first frame to the beginning of the input subsequence; (b) input subsequence component of the surrogatemore » signal used as input to the prediction algorithm: (c) output subsequence component is the remaining signal used as the known output of the prediction algorithm for validation. The prediction algorithm consists of three major steps: (1) extracting subsequences from training component which best-match the input subsequence according to given criterion; (2) calculating weighting factors from these best-matched subsequence; (3) collecting the proceeding parts of the subsequences and combining them together with assigned weighting factors to form output. The prediction algorithm was examined for several patients, and its performance is assessed based on the correlation between prediction and known output. Results: Respiratory motion data was collected for 20 patients using the RPM system. The output subsequence is the last 50 samples (∼2 seconds) of a surrogate signal, and the input subsequence was 100 (∼3 seconds) frames prior to the output subsequence. Based on the analysis of correlation coefficient between predicted and known output subsequence, the average correlation is 0.9644±0.0394 and 0.9789±0.0239 for equal-weighting and relative-weighting strategies, respectively. Conclusion: Preliminary results indicate that the prediction algorithm is effective in estimating surrogate motion multiple-steps in advance. Relative-weighting method shows better prediction accuracy than equal-weighting method. More parameters of this algorithm are under investigation.« less

Classifying performance impairment in response to sleep loss using pattern recognition algorithms on single session testing

PubMed Central

St. Hilaire, Melissa A.; Sullivan, Jason P.; Anderson, Clare; Cohen, Daniel A.; Barger, Laura K.; Lockley, Steven W.; Klerman, Elizabeth B.

2012-01-01

There is currently no “gold standard” marker of cognitive performance impairment resulting from sleep loss. We utilized pattern recognition algorithms to determine which features of data collected under controlled laboratory conditions could most reliably identify cognitive performance impairment in response to sleep loss using data from only one testing session, such as would occur in the “real world” or field conditions. A training set for testing the pattern recognition algorithms was developed using objective Psychomotor Vigilance Task (PVT) and subjective Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS) data collected from laboratory studies during which subjects were sleep deprived for 26 – 52 hours. The algorithm was then tested in data from both laboratory and field experiments. The pattern recognition algorithm was able to identify performance impairment with a single testing session in individuals studied under laboratory conditions using PVT, KSS, length of time awake and time of day information with sensitivity and specificity as high as 82%. When this algorithm was tested on data collected under real-world conditions from individuals whose data were not in the training set, accuracy of predictions for individuals categorized with low performance impairment were as high as 98%. Predictions for medium and severe performance impairment were less accurate. We conclude that pattern recognition algorithms may be a promising method for identifying performance impairment in individuals using only current information about the individual’s behavior. Single testing features (e.g., number of PVT lapses) with high correlation with performance impairment in the laboratory setting may not be the best indicators of performance impairment under real-world conditions. Pattern recognition algorithms should be further tested for their ability to be used in conjunction with other assessments of sleepiness in real-world conditions to quantify performance impairment in response to sleep loss. PMID:22959616

Predicting flight delay based on multiple linear regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yi

2017-08-01

Delay of flight has been regarded as one of the toughest difficulties in aviation control. How to establish an effective model to handle the delay prediction problem is a significant work. To solve the problem that the flight delay is difficult to predict, this study proposes a method to model the arriving flights and a multiple linear regression algorithm to predict delay, comparing with Naive-Bayes and C4.5 approach. Experiments based on a realistic dataset of domestic airports show that the accuracy of the proposed model approximates 80%, which is further improved than the Naive-Bayes and C4.5 approach approaches. The result testing shows that this method is convenient for calculation, and also can predict the flight delays effectively. It can provide decision basis for airport authorities.

Research prioritization through prediction of future impact on biomedical science: a position paper on inference-analytics.

PubMed

Ganapathiraju, Madhavi K; Orii, Naoki

2013-08-30

Advances in biotechnology have created "big-data" situations in molecular and cellular biology. Several sophisticated algorithms have been developed that process big data to generate hundreds of biomedical hypotheses (or predictions). The bottleneck to translating this large number of biological hypotheses is that each of them needs to be studied by experimentation for interpreting its functional significance. Even when the predictions are estimated to be very accurate, from a biologist's perspective, the choice of which of these predictions is to be studied further is made based on factors like availability of reagents and resources and the possibility of formulating some reasonable hypothesis about its biological relevance. When viewed from a global perspective, say from that of a federal funding agency, ideally the choice of which prediction should be studied would be made based on which of them can make the most translational impact. We propose that algorithms be developed to identify which of the computationally generated hypotheses have potential for high translational impact; this way, funding agencies and scientific community can invest resources and drive the research based on a global view of biomedical impact without being deterred by local view of feasibility. In short, data-analytic algorithms analyze big-data and generate hypotheses; in contrast, the proposed inference-analytic algorithms analyze these hypotheses and rank them by predicted biological impact. We demonstrate this through the development of an algorithm to predict biomedical impact of protein-protein interactions (PPIs) which is estimated by the number of future publications that cite the paper which originally reported the PPI. This position paper describes a new computational problem that is relevant in the era of big-data and discusses the challenges that exist in studying this problem, highlighting the need for the scientific community to engage in this line of research. The proposed class of algorithms, namely inference-analytic algorithms, is necessary to ensure that resources are invested in translating those computational outcomes that promise maximum biological impact. Application of this concept to predict biomedical impact of PPIs illustrates not only the concept, but also the challenges in designing these algorithms.

Prediction of flood abnormalities for improved public safety using a modified adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system.

PubMed

Aqil, M; Kita, I; Yano, A; Nishiyama, S

2006-01-01

It is widely accepted that an efficient flood alarm system may significantly improve public safety and mitigate economical damages caused by inundations. In this paper, a modified adaptive neuro-fuzzy system is proposed to modify the traditional neuro-fuzzy model. This new method employs a rule-correction based algorithm to replace the error back propagation algorithm that is employed by the traditional neuro-fuzzy method in backward pass calculation. The final value obtained during the backward pass calculation using the rule-correction algorithm is then considered as a mapping function of the learning mechanism of the modified neuro-fuzzy system. Effectiveness of the proposed identification technique is demonstrated through a simulation study on the flood series of the Citarum River in Indonesia. The first four-year data (1987 to 1990) was used for model training/calibration, while the other remaining data (1991 to 2002) was used for testing the model. The number of antecedent flows that should be included in the input variables was determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation between the variables. Performance accuracy of the model was evaluated in terms of two statistical indices, i.e. mean average percentage error and root mean square error. The algorithm was developed in a decision support system environment in order to enable users to process the data. The decision support system is found to be useful due to its interactive nature, flexibility in approach, and evolving graphical features, and can be adopted for any similar situation to predict the streamflow. The main data processing includes gauging station selection, input generation, lead-time selection/generation, and length of prediction. This program enables users to process the flood data, to train/test the model using various input options, and to visualize results. The program code consists of a set of files, which can be modified as well to match other purposes. This program may also serve as a tool for real-time flood monitoring and process control. The results indicate that the modified neuro-fuzzy model applied to the flood prediction seems to have reached encouraging results for the river basin under examination. The comparison of the modified neuro-fuzzy predictions with the observed data was satisfactory, where the error resulted from the testing period was varied between 2.632% and 5.560%. Thus, this program may also serve as a tool for real-time flood monitoring and process control.

Medical chart validation of an algorithm for identifying multiple sclerosis relapse in healthcare claims.

PubMed

Chastek, Benjamin J; Oleen-Burkey, Merrikay; Lopez-Bresnahan, Maria V

2010-01-01

Relapse is a common measure of disease activity in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS). The objective of this study was to test the content validity of an operational algorithm for detecting relapse in claims data. A claims-based relapse detection algorithm was tested by comparing its detection rate over a 1-year period with relapses identified based on medical chart review. According to the algorithm, MS patients in a US healthcare claims database who had either (1) a primary claim for MS during hospitalization or (2) a corticosteroid claim following a MS-related outpatient visit were designated as having a relapse. Patient charts were examined for explicit indication of relapse or care suggestive of relapse. Positive and negative predictive values were calculated. Medical charts were reviewed for 300 MS patients, half of whom had a relapse according to the algorithm. The claims-based criteria correctly classified 67.3% of patients with relapses (positive predictive value) and 70.0% of patients without relapses (negative predictive value; kappa 0.373: p < 0.001). Alternative algorithms did not improve on the predictive value of the operational algorithm. Limitations of the algorithm include lack of differentiation between relapsing-remitting MS and other types, and that it does not incorporate measures of function and disability. The claims-based algorithm appeared to successfully detect moderate-to-severe MS relapse. This validated definition can be applied to future claims-based MS studies.

Comparative evaluation of atom mapping algorithms for balanced metabolic reactions: application to Recon 3D

DOE PAGES

Preciat Gonzalez, German A.; El Assal, Lemmer R. P.; Noronha, Alberto; ...

2017-06-14

The mechanism of each chemical reaction in a metabolic network can be represented as a set of atom mappings, each of which relates an atom in a substrate metabolite to an atom of the same element in a product metabolite. Genome-scale metabolic network reconstructions typically represent biochemistry at the level of reaction stoichiometry. However, a more detailed representation at the underlying level of atom mappings opens the possibility for a broader range of biological, biomedical and biotechnological applications than with stoichiometry alone. Complete manual acquisition of atom mapping data for a genome-scale metabolic network is a laborious process. However, manymore » algorithms exist to predict atom mappings. How do their predictions compare to each other and to manually curated atom mappings? For more than four thousand metabolic reactions in the latest human metabolic reconstruction, Recon 3D, we compared the atom mappings predicted by six atom mapping algorithms. We also compared these predictions to those obtained by manual curation of atom mappings for over five hundred reactions distributed among all top level Enzyme Commission number classes. Five of the evaluated algorithms had similarly high prediction accuracy of over 91% when compared to manually curated atom mapped reactions. On average, the accuracy of the prediction was highest for reactions catalysed by oxidoreductases and lowest for reactions catalysed by ligases. In addition to prediction accuracy, the algorithms were evaluated on their accessibility, their advanced features, such as the ability to identify equivalent atoms, and their ability to map hydrogen atoms. In addition to prediction accuracy, we found that software accessibility and advanced features were fundamental to the selection of an atom mapping algorithm in practice.« less

Comparative evaluation of atom mapping algorithms for balanced metabolic reactions: application to Recon 3D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preciat Gonzalez, German A.; El Assal, Lemmer R. P.; Noronha, Alberto

The mechanism of each chemical reaction in a metabolic network can be represented as a set of atom mappings, each of which relates an atom in a substrate metabolite to an atom of the same element in a product metabolite. Genome-scale metabolic network reconstructions typically represent biochemistry at the level of reaction stoichiometry. However, a more detailed representation at the underlying level of atom mappings opens the possibility for a broader range of biological, biomedical and biotechnological applications than with stoichiometry alone. Complete manual acquisition of atom mapping data for a genome-scale metabolic network is a laborious process. However, manymore » algorithms exist to predict atom mappings. How do their predictions compare to each other and to manually curated atom mappings? For more than four thousand metabolic reactions in the latest human metabolic reconstruction, Recon 3D, we compared the atom mappings predicted by six atom mapping algorithms. We also compared these predictions to those obtained by manual curation of atom mappings for over five hundred reactions distributed among all top level Enzyme Commission number classes. Five of the evaluated algorithms had similarly high prediction accuracy of over 91% when compared to manually curated atom mapped reactions. On average, the accuracy of the prediction was highest for reactions catalysed by oxidoreductases and lowest for reactions catalysed by ligases. In addition to prediction accuracy, the algorithms were evaluated on their accessibility, their advanced features, such as the ability to identify equivalent atoms, and their ability to map hydrogen atoms. In addition to prediction accuracy, we found that software accessibility and advanced features were fundamental to the selection of an atom mapping algorithm in practice.« less

Comparative evaluation of atom mapping algorithms for balanced metabolic reactions: application to Recon 3D.

PubMed

Preciat Gonzalez, German A; El Assal, Lemmer R P; Noronha, Alberto; Thiele, Ines; Haraldsdóttir, Hulda S; Fleming, Ronan M T

2017-06-14

The mechanism of each chemical reaction in a metabolic network can be represented as a set of atom mappings, each of which relates an atom in a substrate metabolite to an atom of the same element in a product metabolite. Genome-scale metabolic network reconstructions typically represent biochemistry at the level of reaction stoichiometry. However, a more detailed representation at the underlying level of atom mappings opens the possibility for a broader range of biological, biomedical and biotechnological applications than with stoichiometry alone. Complete manual acquisition of atom mapping data for a genome-scale metabolic network is a laborious process. However, many algorithms exist to predict atom mappings. How do their predictions compare to each other and to manually curated atom mappings? For more than four thousand metabolic reactions in the latest human metabolic reconstruction, Recon 3D, we compared the atom mappings predicted by six atom mapping algorithms. We also compared these predictions to those obtained by manual curation of atom mappings for over five hundred reactions distributed among all top level Enzyme Commission number classes. Five of the evaluated algorithms had similarly high prediction accuracy of over 91% when compared to manually curated atom mapped reactions. On average, the accuracy of the prediction was highest for reactions catalysed by oxidoreductases and lowest for reactions catalysed by ligases. In addition to prediction accuracy, the algorithms were evaluated on their accessibility, their advanced features, such as the ability to identify equivalent atoms, and their ability to map hydrogen atoms. In addition to prediction accuracy, we found that software accessibility and advanced features were fundamental to the selection of an atom mapping algorithm in practice.

A Sensor Dynamic Measurement Error Prediction Model Based on NAPSO-SVM.

PubMed

Jiang, Minlan; Jiang, Lan; Jiang, Dingde; Li, Fei; Song, Houbing

2018-01-15

Dynamic measurement error correction is an effective way to improve sensor precision. Dynamic measurement error prediction is an important part of error correction, and support vector machine (SVM) is often used for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Traditionally, the SVM parameters were always set manually, which cannot ensure the model's performance. In this paper, a SVM method based on an improved particle swarm optimization (NAPSO) is proposed to predict the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Natural selection and simulated annealing are added in the PSO to raise the ability to avoid local optima. To verify the performance of NAPSO-SVM, three types of algorithms are selected to optimize the SVM's parameters: the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), the improved PSO optimization algorithm (NAPSO), and the glowworm swarm optimization (GSO). The dynamic measurement error data of two sensors are applied as the test data. The root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error are employed to evaluate the prediction models' performances. The experimental results show that among the three tested algorithms the NAPSO-SVM method has a better prediction precision and a less prediction errors, and it is an effective method for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors.

BIG DATA ANALYTICS AND PRECISION ANIMAL AGRICULTURE SYMPOSIUM: Data to decisions.

PubMed

White, B J; Amrine, D E; Larson, R L

2018-04-14

Big data are frequently used in many facets of business and agronomy to enhance knowledge needed to improve operational decisions. Livestock operations collect data of sufficient quantity to perform predictive analytics. Predictive analytics can be defined as a methodology and suite of data evaluation techniques to generate a prediction for specific target outcomes. The objective of this manuscript is to describe the process of using big data and the predictive analytic framework to create tools to drive decisions in livestock production, health, and welfare. The predictive analytic process involves selecting a target variable, managing the data, partitioning the data, then creating algorithms, refining algorithms, and finally comparing accuracy of the created classifiers. The partitioning of the datasets allows model building and refining to occur prior to testing the predictive accuracy of the model with naive data to evaluate overall accuracy. Many different classification algorithms are available for predictive use and testing multiple algorithms can lead to optimal results. Application of a systematic process for predictive analytics using data that is currently collected or that could be collected on livestock operations will facilitate precision animal management through enhanced livestock operational decisions.

Predictive Caching Using the TDAG Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laird, Philip; Saul, Ronald

1992-01-01

We describe how the TDAG algorithm for learning to predict symbol sequences can be used to design a predictive cache store. A model of a two-level mass storage system is developed and used to calculate the performance of the cache under various conditions. Experimental simulations provide good confirmation of the model.

Predictive Model of Linear Antimicrobial Peptides Active against Gram-Negative Bacteria.

PubMed

Vishnepolsky, Boris; Gabrielian, Andrei; Rosenthal, Alex; Hurt, Darrell E; Tartakovsky, Michael; Managadze, Grigol; Grigolava, Maya; Makhatadze, George I; Pirtskhalava, Malak

2018-05-29

Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) have been identified as a potential new class of anti-infectives for drug development. There are a lot of computational methods that try to predict AMPs. Most of them can only predict if a peptide will show any antimicrobial potency, but to the best of our knowledge, there are no tools which can predict antimicrobial potency against particular strains. Here we present a predictive model of linear AMPs being active against particular Gram-negative strains relying on a semi-supervised machine-learning approach with a density-based clustering algorithm. The algorithm can well distinguish peptides active against particular strains from others which may also be active but not against the considered strain. The available AMP prediction tools cannot carry out this task. The prediction tool based on the algorithm suggested herein is available on https://dbaasp.org.

Uncertainty management for aerial vehicles: Coordination, deconfliction, and disturbance rejection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panyakeow, Prachya

The presented dissertation aims to develop control algorithms that deal with three types of uncertainties managements. First, we examine the situation when unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) fly through uncertain environments that contain both stationary and moving obstacles. Moreover, a guarantee of collision avoidance is necessary when UAVs operate in close proximity of each other. Second, we look at the communication uncertainty among the network of cooperative UAVs and the efforts to establish and maintain the connectivity throughout their entire missions. Third, we explore the scenario when the aircraft flies through wind gust. The introduction of an appropriate control scheme to actively alleviate the gust loads can result into weight reduction and consequently lower the fuel cost. In the first part of this dissertation, we develop a deconfliction algorithm that guarantees collision avoidance between a pair of constant speed unicycle-type UAVs as well as convergence to the desired destination for each UAV in presence of static obstacles. We use a combination of navigation and swirling functions to direct the unicycle vehicles along the planned trajectories while avoiding inter-vehicle collisions. The main feature of our contribution is proposing means of designing a deconfliction algorithm for unicycle vehicles that more closely capture the dynamics of constant speed UAVs as opposed to double integrator models. Specifically, we consider the issue of UAV turn-rate constraints and proceed to explore the selection of key algorithmic parameters in order to minimize undesirable trajectories and overshoots induced by the avoidance algorithm. The avoidance and convergence analysis of the proposed algorithm is then performed for two cooperative UAVs and simulation results are provided to support the viability of the proposed framework for more general mission scenarios. For the uncertainty of the UAV network, we provides two approaches to establish connectivity among a collection of UAVs that are initially scattered in space. The goal is to find shortest trajectories that bring the UAVs to a connected formation where they are in the range of detection of one another and headed in the same direction to maintain the connectivity. Pontryagin Minimum Principle (PMP) is utilized to determine the control law and path synthesis for the UAVs under the turn-rate constraints. We introduce an algorithm to search for the optimal solution when the final network topology is specified; followed by a nonlinear programming method in which the final configuration is emerged from the optimization routine under the constraints that the final topology is connected. Each method has its own advantages based on the size of corporative networks. For the uncertainty due to gust turbulence, we choose a model predictive control (MPC) technique to address gust load alleviation (GLA) for a flexible aircraft. MPC is a discrete method based on repeated online optimization that allows direct consideration of control actuator constraints into the feedback computation. Gust alleviation systems are dependent on how the structural flexibility of the aircraft affects its dynamics. Hence, we develop a six-degree-of-freedom flexible aircraft model that can integrate rigid body dynamic with structural deflection. The structural stick-and-beam model is utilized for the calculation of aeroelastic mode shapes and airframe loads. Another important feature of MPC for GLA design is the ability to include the preview of gust information ahead of the aircraft nose into the prediction process. This helps raising the prediction accuracy and consequently improves the load alleviation performance. Finally, the aircraft is modified by the addition of the flap-array, a composition of small trailing edge flaps throughout the entire span of the wings. These flaps are used in conjunction with the distributed spoilers. With the availability of the control surfaces closer to the wing root, the MPC with flap-array can reduce the wing bending moment from different mode shapes and achieve better load alleviation performance than the original aircraft.

Non linear predictive control of a LEGO mobile robot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merabti, H.; Bouchemal, B.; Belarbi, K.; Boucherma, D.; Amouri, A.

2014-10-01

Metaheuristics are general purpose heuristics which have shown a great potential for the solution of difficult optimization problems. In this work, we apply the meta heuristic, namely particle swarm optimization, PSO, for the solution of the optimization problem arising in NLMPC. This algorithm is easy to code and may be considered as alternatives for the more classical solution procedures. The PSO- NLMPC is applied to control a mobile robot for the tracking trajectory and obstacles avoidance. Experimental results show the strength of this approach.

Community detection in complex networks using link prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Hui-Min; Ning, Yi-Zi; Yin, Zhao; Yan, Chao; Liu, Xin; Zhang, Zhong-Yuan

2018-01-01

Community detection and link prediction are both of great significance in network analysis, which provide very valuable insights into topological structures of the network from different perspectives. In this paper, we propose a novel community detection algorithm with inclusion of link prediction, motivated by the question whether link prediction can be devoted to improving the accuracy of community partition. For link prediction, we propose two novel indices to compute the similarity between each pair of nodes, one of which aims to add missing links, and the other tries to remove spurious edges. Extensive experiments are conducted on benchmark data sets, and the results of our proposed algorithm are compared with two classes of baselines. In conclusion, our proposed algorithm is competitive, revealing that link prediction does improve the precision of community detection.

Comparison of Algorithm-based Estimates of Occupational Diesel Exhaust Exposure to Those of Multiple Independent Raters in a Population-based Case–Control Study

PubMed Central

Friesen, Melissa C.

2013-01-01

Objectives: Algorithm-based exposure assessments based on patterns in questionnaire responses and professional judgment can readily apply transparent exposure decision rules to thousands of jobs quickly. However, we need to better understand how algorithms compare to a one-by-one job review by an exposure assessor. We compared algorithm-based estimates of diesel exhaust exposure to those of three independent raters within the New England Bladder Cancer Study, a population-based case–control study, and identified conditions under which disparities occurred in the assessments of the algorithm and the raters. Methods: Occupational diesel exhaust exposure was assessed previously using an algorithm and a single rater for all 14 983 jobs reported by 2631 study participants during personal interviews conducted from 2001 to 2004. Two additional raters independently assessed a random subset of 324 jobs that were selected based on strata defined by the cross-tabulations of the algorithm and the first rater’s probability assessments for each job, oversampling their disagreements. The algorithm and each rater assessed the probability, intensity and frequency of occupational diesel exhaust exposure, as well as a confidence rating for each metric. Agreement among the raters, their aggregate rating (average of the three raters’ ratings) and the algorithm were evaluated using proportion of agreement, kappa and weighted kappa (κw). Agreement analyses on the subset used inverse probability weighting to extrapolate the subset to estimate agreement for all jobs. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) models were used to identify patterns in questionnaire responses that predicted disparities in exposure status (i.e., unexposed versus exposed) between the first rater and the algorithm-based estimates. Results: For the probability, intensity and frequency exposure metrics, moderate to moderately high agreement was observed among raters (κw = 0.50–0.76) and between the algorithm and the individual raters (κw = 0.58–0.81). For these metrics, the algorithm estimates had consistently higher agreement with the aggregate rating (κw = 0.82) than with the individual raters. For all metrics, the agreement between the algorithm and the aggregate ratings was highest for the unexposed category (90–93%) and was poor to moderate for the exposed categories (9–64%). Lower agreement was observed for jobs with a start year <1965 versus ≥1965. For the confidence metrics, the agreement was poor to moderate among raters (κw = 0.17–0.45) and between the algorithm and the individual raters (κw = 0.24–0.61). CART models identified patterns in the questionnaire responses that predicted a fair-to-moderate (33–89%) proportion of the disagreements between the raters’ and the algorithm estimates. Discussion: The agreement between any two raters was similar to the agreement between an algorithm-based approach and individual raters, providing additional support for using the more efficient and transparent algorithm-based approach. CART models identified some patterns in disagreements between the first rater and the algorithm. Given the absence of a gold standard for estimating exposure, these patterns can be reviewed by a team of exposure assessors to determine whether the algorithm should be revised for future studies. PMID:23184256

A novel gene network inference algorithm using predictive minimum description length approach.

PubMed

Chaitankar, Vijender; Ghosh, Preetam; Perkins, Edward J; Gong, Ping; Deng, Youping; Zhang, Chaoyang

2010-05-28

Reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks using information theory models has received much attention due to its simplicity, low computational cost, and capability of inferring large networks. One of the major problems with information theory models is to determine the threshold which defines the regulatory relationships between genes. The minimum description length (MDL) principle has been implemented to overcome this problem. The description length of the MDL principle is the sum of model length and data encoding length. A user-specified fine tuning parameter is used as control mechanism between model and data encoding, but it is difficult to find the optimal parameter. In this work, we proposed a new inference algorithm which incorporated mutual information (MI), conditional mutual information (CMI) and predictive minimum description length (PMDL) principle to infer gene regulatory networks from DNA microarray data. In this algorithm, the information theoretic quantities MI and CMI determine the regulatory relationships between genes and the PMDL principle method attempts to determine the best MI threshold without the need of a user-specified fine tuning parameter. The performance of the proposed algorithm was evaluated using both synthetic time series data sets and a biological time series data set for the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. The benchmark quantities precision and recall were used as performance measures. The results show that the proposed algorithm produced less false edges and significantly improved the precision, as compared to the existing algorithm. For further analysis the performance of the algorithms was observed over different sizes of data. We have proposed a new algorithm that implements the PMDL principle for inferring gene regulatory networks from time series DNA microarray data that eliminates the need of a fine tuning parameter. The evaluation results obtained from both synthetic and actual biological data sets show that the PMDL principle is effective in determining the MI threshold and the developed algorithm improves precision of gene regulatory network inference. Based on the sensitivity analysis of all tested cases, an optimal CMI threshold value has been identified. Finally it was observed that the performance of the algorithms saturates at a certain threshold of data size.

The sensitivity and negative predictive value of a pediatric cervical spine clearance algorithm that minimizes computerized tomography.

PubMed

Arbuthnot, Mary; Mooney, David P

2017-01-01

It is crucial to identify cervical spine injuries while minimizing ionizing radiation. This study analyzes the sensitivity and negative predictive value of a pediatric cervical spine clearance algorithm. We performed a retrospective review of all children <21years old who were admitted following blunt trauma and underwent cervical spine clearance utilizing our institution's cervical spine clearance algorithm over a 10-year period. Age, gender, International Classification of Diseases 9th Edition diagnosis codes, presence or absence of cervical collar on arrival, Injury Severity Score, and type of cervical spine imaging obtained were extracted from the trauma registry and electronic medical record. Descriptive statistics were used and the sensitivity and negative predictive value of the algorithm were calculated. Approximately 125,000 children were evaluated in the Emergency Department and 11,331 were admitted. Of the admitted children, 1023 patients arrived in a cervical collar without advanced cervical spine imaging and were evaluated using the cervical spine clearance algorithm. Algorithm sensitivity was 94.4% and the negative predictive value was 99.9%. There was one missed injury, a spinous process tip fracture in a teenager maintained in a collar. Our algorithm was associated with a low missed injury rate and low CT utilization rate, even in children <3years old. IV. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Some practical universal noiseless coding techniques, part 3, module PSl14,K+

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rice, Robert F.

1991-01-01

The algorithmic definitions, performance characterizations, and application notes for a high-performance adaptive noiseless coding module are provided. Subsets of these algorithms are currently under development in custom very large scale integration (VLSI) at three NASA centers. The generality of coding algorithms recently reported is extended. The module incorporates a powerful adaptive noiseless coder for Standard Data Sources (i.e., sources whose symbols can be represented by uncorrelated non-negative integers, where smaller integers are more likely than the larger ones). Coders can be specified to provide performance close to the data entropy over any desired dynamic range (of entropy) above 0.75 bit/sample. This is accomplished by adaptively choosing the best of many efficient variable-length coding options to use on each short block of data (e.g., 16 samples) All code options used for entropies above 1.5 bits/sample are 'Huffman Equivalent', but they require no table lookups to implement. The coding can be performed directly on data that have been preprocessed to exhibit the characteristics of a standard source. Alternatively, a built-in predictive preprocessor can be used where applicable. This built-in preprocessor includes the familiar 1-D predictor followed by a function that maps the prediction error sequences into the desired standard form. Additionally, an external prediction can be substituted if desired. A broad range of issues dealing with the interface between the coding module and the data systems it might serve are further addressed. These issues include: multidimensional prediction, archival access, sensor noise, rate control, code rate improvements outside the module, and the optimality of certain internal code options.

Cooperative and Integrated Vehicle and Intersection Control for Energy Efficiency (CIVIC-E²)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hou, Yunfei; Seliman, Salaheldeen M. S.; Wang, Enshu

Recent advances in connected vehicle technologies enable vehicles and signal controllers to cooperate and improve the traffic management at intersections. This paper explores the opportunity for cooperative and integrated vehicle and intersection control for energy efficiency (CIVIC-E 2) to contribute to a more sustainable transportation system. We propose a two-level approach that jointly optimizes the traffic signal timing and vehicles' approach speed, with the objective being to minimize total energy consumption for all vehicles passing through an isolated intersection. More specifically, at the intersection level, a dynamic programming algorithm is designed to find the optimal signal timing by explicitly consideringmore » the arrival time and energy profile of each vehicle. At the vehicle level, a model predictive control strategy is adopted to ensure that vehicles pass through the intersection in a timely fashion. Our simulation study has shown that the proposed CIVIC-E 2 system can significantly improve intersection performance under various traffic conditions. Compared with conventional fixed-time and actuated signal control strategies, the proposed algorithm can reduce energy consumption and queue length by up to 31% and 95%, respectively.« less

Cooperative and Integrated Vehicle and Intersection Control for Energy Efficiency (CIVIC-E²)

DOE PAGES

Hou, Yunfei; Seliman, Salaheldeen M. S.; Wang, Enshu; ...

2018-02-15

Recent advances in connected vehicle technologies enable vehicles and signal controllers to cooperate and improve the traffic management at intersections. This paper explores the opportunity for cooperative and integrated vehicle and intersection control for energy efficiency (CIVIC-E 2) to contribute to a more sustainable transportation system. We propose a two-level approach that jointly optimizes the traffic signal timing and vehicles' approach speed, with the objective being to minimize total energy consumption for all vehicles passing through an isolated intersection. More specifically, at the intersection level, a dynamic programming algorithm is designed to find the optimal signal timing by explicitly consideringmore » the arrival time and energy profile of each vehicle. At the vehicle level, a model predictive control strategy is adopted to ensure that vehicles pass through the intersection in a timely fashion. Our simulation study has shown that the proposed CIVIC-E 2 system can significantly improve intersection performance under various traffic conditions. Compared with conventional fixed-time and actuated signal control strategies, the proposed algorithm can reduce energy consumption and queue length by up to 31% and 95%, respectively.« less

Physics Based Model for Cryogenic Chilldown and Loading. Part I: Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luchinsky, Dmitry G.; Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.; Brown, Barbara

2014-01-01

We report the progress in the development of the physics based model for cryogenic chilldown and loading. The chilldown and loading is model as fully separated non-equilibrium two-phase flow of cryogenic fluid thermally coupled to the pipe walls. The solution follow closely nearly-implicit and semi-implicit algorithms developed for autonomous control of thermal-hydraulic systems developed by Idaho National Laboratory. A special attention is paid to the treatment of instabilities. The model is applied to the analysis of chilldown in rapid loading system developed at NASA-Kennedy Space Center. The nontrivial characteristic feature of the analyzed chilldown regime is its active control by dump valves. The numerical predictions are in reasonable agreement with the experimental time traces. The obtained results pave the way to the development of autonomous loading operation on the ground and space.

A Simulation-Based Study on the Comparison of Statistical and Time Series Forecasting Methods for Early Detection of Infectious Disease Outbreaks.

PubMed

Yang, Eunjoo; Park, Hyun Woo; Choi, Yeon Hwa; Kim, Jusim; Munkhdalai, Lkhagvadorj; Musa, Ibrahim; Ryu, Keun Ho

2018-05-11

Early detection of infectious disease outbreaks is one of the important and significant issues in syndromic surveillance systems. It helps to provide a rapid epidemiological response and reduce morbidity and mortality. In order to upgrade the current system at the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), a comparative study of state-of-the-art techniques is required. We compared four different temporal outbreak detection algorithms: the CUmulative SUM (CUSUM), the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS), the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and the Holt-Winters algorithm. The comparison was performed based on not only 42 different time series generated taking into account trends, seasonality, and randomly occurring outbreaks, but also real-world daily and weekly data related to diarrhea infection. The algorithms were evaluated using different metrics. These were namely, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), F1 score, symmetric mean absolute percent error (sMAPE), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and mean absolute deviation (MAD). Although the comparison results showed better performance for the EARS C3 method with respect to the other algorithms, despite the characteristics of the underlying time series data, Holt⁻Winters showed better performance when the baseline frequency and the dispersion parameter values were both less than 1.5 and 2, respectively.

External validation of the fatty liver index and lipid accumulation product indices, using 1H-magnetic resonance spectroscopy, to identify hepatic steatosis in healthy controls and obese, insulin-resistant individuals.

PubMed

Cuthbertson, Daniel J; Weickert, Martin O; Lythgoe, Daniel; Sprung, Victoria S; Dobson, Rebecca; Shoajee-Moradie, Fariba; Umpleby, Margot; Pfeiffer, Andreas F H; Thomas, E Louise; Bell, Jimmy D; Jones, Helen; Kemp, Graham J

2014-11-01

Simple clinical algorithms including the fatty liver index (FLI) and lipid accumulation product (LAP) have been developed as surrogate markers for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), constructed using (semi-quantitative) ultrasonography. This study aimed to validate FLI and LAP as measures of hepatic steatosis, as determined quantitatively by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS). Data were collected from 168 patients with NAFLD and 168 controls who had undergone clinical, biochemical and anthropometric assessment. Values of FLI and LAP were determined and assessed both as predictors of the presence of hepatic steatosis (liver fat>5.5%) and of actual liver fat content, as measured by 1H-MRS. The discriminative ability of FLI and LAP was estimated using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC). As FLI can also be interpreted as a predictive probability of hepatic steatosis, we assessed how well calibrated it was in our cohort. Linear regression with prediction intervals was used to assess the ability of FLI and LAP to predict liver fat content. Further validation was provided in 54 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. FLI, LAP and alanine transferase discriminated between patients with and without steatosis with an AUROC of 0.79 (IQR=0.74, 0.84), 0.78 (IQR=0.72, 0.83) and 0.83 (IQR=0.79, 0.88) respectively although could not quantitatively predict liver fat. Additionally, the algorithms accurately matched the observed percentages of patients with hepatic steatosis in our cohort. FLI and LAP may be used to identify patients with hepatic steatosis clinically or for research purposes but could not predict liver fat content. © 2014 European Society of Endocrinology.

Learning-based computing techniques in geoid modeling for precise height transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erol, B.; Erol, S.

2013-03-01

Precise determination of local geoid is of particular importance for establishing height control in geodetic GNSS applications, since the classical leveling technique is too laborious. A geoid model can be accurately obtained employing properly distributed benchmarks having GNSS and leveling observations using an appropriate computing algorithm. Besides the classical multivariable polynomial regression equations (MPRE), this study attempts an evaluation of learning based computing algorithms: artificial neural networks (ANNs), adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and especially the wavelet neural networks (WNNs) approach in geoid surface approximation. These algorithms were developed parallel to advances in computer technologies and recently have been used for solving complex nonlinear problems of many applications. However, they are rather new in dealing with precise modeling problem of the Earth gravity field. In the scope of the study, these methods were applied to Istanbul GPS Triangulation Network data. The performances of the methods were assessed considering the validation results of the geoid models at the observation points. In conclusion the ANFIS and WNN revealed higher prediction accuracies compared to ANN and MPRE methods. Beside the prediction capabilities, these methods were also compared and discussed from the practical point of view in conclusions.

A material political economy: Automated Trading Desk and price prediction in high-frequency trading.

PubMed

MacKenzie, Donald

2017-04-01

This article contains the first detailed historical study of one of the new high-frequency trading (HFT) firms that have transformed many of the world's financial markets. The study, of Automated Trading Desk (ATD), one of the earliest and most important such firms, focuses on how ATD's algorithms predicted share price changes. The article argues that political-economic struggles are integral to the existence of some of the 'pockets' of predictable structure in the otherwise random movements of prices, to the availability of the data that allow algorithms to identify these pockets, and to the capacity of algorithms to use these predictions to trade profitably. The article also examines the role of HFT algorithms such as ATD's in the epochal, fiercely contested shift in US share trading from 'fixed-role' markets towards 'all-to-all' markets.

Evaluating the diagnostic utility of applying a machine learning algorithm to diffusion tensor MRI measures in individuals with major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Schnyer, David M; Clasen, Peter C; Gonzalez, Christopher; Beevers, Christopher G

2017-06-30

Using MRI to diagnose mental disorders has been a long-term goal. Despite this, the vast majority of prior neuroimaging work has been descriptive rather than predictive. The current study applies support vector machine (SVM) learning to MRI measures of brain white matter to classify adults with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and healthy controls. In a precisely matched group of individuals with MDD (n =25) and healthy controls (n =25), SVM learning accurately (74%) classified patients and controls across a brain map of white matter fractional anisotropy values (FA). The study revealed three main findings: 1) SVM applied to DTI derived FA maps can accurately classify MDD vs. healthy controls; 2) prediction is strongest when only right hemisphere white matter is examined; and 3) removing FA values from a region identified by univariate contrast as significantly different between MDD and healthy controls does not change the SVM accuracy. These results indicate that SVM learning applied to neuroimaging data can classify the presence versus absence of MDD and that predictive information is distributed across brain networks rather than being highly localized. Finally, MDD group differences revealed through typical univariate contrasts do not necessarily reveal patterns that provide accurate predictive information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structured Kernel Subspace Learning for Autonomous Robot Navigation.

PubMed

Kim, Eunwoo; Choi, Sungjoon; Oh, Songhwai

2018-02-14

This paper considers two important problems for autonomous robot navigation in a dynamic environment, where the goal is to predict pedestrian motion and control a robot with the prediction for safe navigation. While there are several methods for predicting the motion of a pedestrian and controlling a robot to avoid incoming pedestrians, it is still difficult to safely navigate in a dynamic environment due to challenges, such as the varying quality and complexity of training data with unwanted noises. This paper addresses these challenges simultaneously by proposing a robust kernel subspace learning algorithm based on the recent advances in nuclear-norm and l 1 -norm minimization. We model the motion of a pedestrian and the robot controller using Gaussian processes. The proposed method efficiently approximates a kernel matrix used in Gaussian process regression by learning low-rank structured matrix (with symmetric positive semi-definiteness) to find an orthogonal basis, which eliminates the effects of erroneous and inconsistent data. Based on structured kernel subspace learning, we propose a robust motion model and motion controller for safe navigation in dynamic environments. We evaluate the proposed robust kernel learning in various tasks, including regression, motion prediction, and motion control problems, and demonstrate that the proposed learning-based systems are robust against outliers and outperform existing regression and navigation methods.

Local-search based prediction of medical image registration error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saygili, Görkem

2018-03-01

Medical image registration is a crucial task in many different medical imaging applications. Hence, considerable amount of work has been published recently that aim to predict the error in a registration without any human effort. If provided, these error predictions can be used as a feedback to the registration algorithm to further improve its performance. Recent methods generally start with extracting image-based and deformation-based features, then apply feature pooling and finally train a Random Forest (RF) regressor to predict the real registration error. Image-based features can be calculated after applying a single registration but provide limited accuracy whereas deformation-based features such as variation of deformation vector field may require up to 20 registrations which is a considerably high time-consuming task. This paper proposes to use extracted features from a local search algorithm as image-based features to estimate the error of a registration. The proposed method comprises a local search algorithm to find corresponding voxels between registered image pairs and based on the amount of shifts and stereo confidence measures, it predicts the amount of registration error in millimetres densely using a RF regressor. Compared to other algorithms in the literature, the proposed algorithm does not require multiple registrations, can be efficiently implemented on a Graphical Processing Unit (GPU) and can still provide highly accurate error predictions in existence of large registration error. Experimental results with real registrations on a public dataset indicate a substantially high accuracy achieved by using features from the local search algorithm.

Adaptive firefly algorithm: parameter analysis and its application.

PubMed

Cheung, Ngaam J; Ding, Xue-Ming; Shen, Hong-Bin

2014-01-01

As a nature-inspired search algorithm, firefly algorithm (FA) has several control parameters, which may have great effects on its performance. In this study, we investigate the parameter selection and adaptation strategies in a modified firefly algorithm - adaptive firefly algorithm (AdaFa). There are three strategies in AdaFa including (1) a distance-based light absorption coefficient; (2) a gray coefficient enhancing fireflies to share difference information from attractive ones efficiently; and (3) five different dynamic strategies for the randomization parameter. Promising selections of parameters in the strategies are analyzed to guarantee the efficient performance of AdaFa. AdaFa is validated over widely used benchmark functions, and the numerical experiments and statistical tests yield useful conclusions on the strategies and the parameter selections affecting the performance of AdaFa. When applied to the real-world problem - protein tertiary structure prediction, the results demonstrated improved variants can rebuild the tertiary structure with the average root mean square deviation less than 0.4Å and 1.5Å from the native constrains with noise free and 10% Gaussian white noise.

Adaptive Firefly Algorithm: Parameter Analysis and its Application

PubMed Central

Shen, Hong-Bin

2014-01-01

As a nature-inspired search algorithm, firefly algorithm (FA) has several control parameters, which may have great effects on its performance. In this study, we investigate the parameter selection and adaptation strategies in a modified firefly algorithm — adaptive firefly algorithm (AdaFa). There are three strategies in AdaFa including (1) a distance-based light absorption coefficient; (2) a gray coefficient enhancing fireflies to share difference information from attractive ones efficiently; and (3) five different dynamic strategies for the randomization parameter. Promising selections of parameters in the strategies are analyzed to guarantee the efficient performance of AdaFa. AdaFa is validated over widely used benchmark functions, and the numerical experiments and statistical tests yield useful conclusions on the strategies and the parameter selections affecting the performance of AdaFa. When applied to the real-world problem — protein tertiary structure prediction, the results demonstrated improved variants can rebuild the tertiary structure with the average root mean square deviation less than 0.4Å and 1.5Å from the native constrains with noise free and 10% Gaussian white noise. PMID:25397812

Statistical algorithms improve accuracy of gene fusion detection

PubMed Central

Hsieh, Gillian; Bierman, Rob; Szabo, Linda; Lee, Alex Gia; Freeman, Donald E.; Watson, Nathaniel; Sweet-Cordero, E. Alejandro

2017-01-01

Abstract Gene fusions are known to play critical roles in tumor pathogenesis. Yet, sensitive and specific algorithms to detect gene fusions in cancer do not currently exist. In this paper, we present a new statistical algorithm, MACHETE (Mismatched Alignment CHimEra Tracking Engine), which achieves highly sensitive and specific detection of gene fusions from RNA-Seq data, including the highest Positive Predictive Value (PPV) compared to the current state-of-the-art, as assessed in simulated data. We show that the best performing published algorithms either find large numbers of fusions in negative control data or suffer from low sensitivity detecting known driving fusions in gold standard settings, such as EWSR1-FLI1. As proof of principle that MACHETE discovers novel gene fusions with high accuracy in vivo, we mined public data to discover and subsequently PCR validate novel gene fusions missed by other algorithms in the ovarian cancer cell line OVCAR3. These results highlight the gains in accuracy achieved by introducing statistical models into fusion detection, and pave the way for unbiased discovery of potentially driving and druggable gene fusions in primary tumors. PMID:28541529

Preliminary Evaluation of a New Semi-Closed-Loop Insulin Therapy System Over the Prandial Period in Adult Patients With Type 1 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Quemerais, Marie Aude; Doron, Maeva; Dutrech, Florent; Melki, Vincent; Franc, Sylvia; Antonakios, Michel; Charpentier, Guillaume; Hanaire, Helene; Charpentier, Guillaume

2014-01-01

There is room for improvement in the algorithms used in closed-loop insulin therapy during the prandial period. This pilot study evaluated the efficacy and safety of the Diabeloop algorithm (model predictive control type) during the postprandial period. This 2-center clinical trial compared interstitial glucose levels over two 5-hour periods (with/without the algorithm) following a calibrated lunch. On the control day, the amount of insulin delivered by the pump was determined according to the patient’s usual parameters. On the test day, 50% or 75% of the theoretical bolus required was delivered, while the algorithm, informed of carbohydrate intake, proposed changes to insulin delivery every 15 minutes using modeling to forecast glucose levels. The primary endpoint was percentage of time spent at near normoglycemia (70-180 mg/dl). Twelve patients with type 1 diabetes (9 men, age 35.6 ± 12.7 years, HbA1c 7.3 ± 0.8%) were included. The percentage of time spent in the target range was 84.5 ± 20.8 (test day) versus 69.2 ± 33.9% (control day, P = .11). The percentage of time spent in hypoglycemia < 70 mg/dl was 0.2 ± 0.8 (test) versus 4.4 ± 8.2% (control, P = .18). Interstitial glucose at the end of the test (5 hours) was 127.5 ± 40.1 (test) versus 146 ± 53.5 mg/dl (control, P = .25). The insulin doses did not differ, and no differences were observed between the 50% and 75% boluses. In a semi-closed-loop configuration with manual priming boluses (25% or 50% reduction), the Diabeloop v1 algorithm was as successful as the manual method in determining the prandial bolus, without any exposure to excessive hypoglycemic risk. PMID:25097057

Optimal Control of Hybrid Systems in Air Traffic Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamgarpour, Maryam

Growing concerns over the scalability of air traffic operations, air transportation fuel emissions and prices, as well as the advent of communication and sensing technologies motivate improvements to the air traffic management system. To address such improvements, in this thesis a hybrid dynamical model as an abstraction of the air traffic system is considered. Wind and hazardous weather impacts are included using a stochastic model. This thesis focuses on the design of algorithms for verification and control of hybrid and stochastic dynamical systems and the application of these algorithms to air traffic management problems. In the deterministic setting, a numerically efficient algorithm for optimal control of hybrid systems is proposed based on extensions of classical optimal control techniques. This algorithm is applied to optimize the trajectory of an Airbus 320 aircraft in the presence of wind and storms. In the stochastic setting, the verification problem of reaching a target set while avoiding obstacles (reach-avoid) is formulated as a two-player game to account for external agents' influence on system dynamics. The solution approach is applied to air traffic conflict prediction in the presence of stochastic wind. Due to the uncertainty in forecasts of the hazardous weather, and hence the unsafe regions of airspace for aircraft flight, the reach-avoid framework is extended to account for stochastic target and safe sets. This methodology is used to maximize the probability of the safety of aircraft paths through hazardous weather. Finally, the problem of modeling and optimization of arrival air traffic and runway configuration in dense airspace subject to stochastic weather data is addressed. This problem is formulated as a hybrid optimal control problem and is solved with a hierarchical approach that decouples safety and performance. As illustrated with this problem, the large scale of air traffic operations motivates future work on the efficient implementation of the proposed algorithms.

"Smart" Electromechanical Shock Absorber

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stokes, Lebarian; Glenn, Dean C.; Carroll, Monty B.

1989-01-01

Shock-absorbing apparatus includes electromechanical actuator and digital feedback control circuitry rather than springs and hydraulic damping as in conventional shock absorbers. Device not subject to leakage and requires little or no maintenance. Attenuator parameters adjusted in response to sensory feedback and predictive algorithms to obtain desired damping characteristic. Device programmed to decelerate slowly approaching vehicle or other large object according to prescribed damping characteristic.

Capture, Learning, and Classification of Upper Extremity Movement Primitives in Healthy Controls and Stroke Patients

PubMed Central

Guerra, Jorge; Uddin, Jasim; Nilsen, Dawn; Mclnerney, James; Fadoo, Ammarah; Omofuma, Isirame B.; Hughes, Shatif; Agrawal, Sunil; Allen, Peter; Schambra, Heidi M.

2017-01-01

There currently exist no practical tools to identify functional movements in the upper extremities (UEs). This absence has limited the precise therapeutic dosing of patients recovering from stroke. In this proof-of-principle study, we aimed to develop an accurate approach for classifying UE functional movement primitives, which comprise functional movements. Data were generated from inertial measurement units (IMUs) placed on upper body segments of older healthy individuals and chronic stroke patients. Subjects performed activities commonly trained during rehabilitation after stroke. Data processing involved the use of a sliding window to obtain statistical descriptors, and resulting features were processed by a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The likelihoods of the states, resulting from the HMM, were segmented by a second sliding window and their averages were calculated. The final predictions were mapped to human functional movement primitives using a Logistic Regression algorithm. Algorithm performance was assessed with a leave-one-out analysis, which determined its sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for all classified primitives. In healthy control and stroke participants, our approach identified functional movement primitives embedded in training activities with, on average, 80% precision. This approach may support functional movement dosing in stroke rehabilitation. PMID:28813877

An automated workflow for patient-specific quality control of contour propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beasley, William J.; McWilliam, Alan; Slevin, Nicholas J.; Mackay, Ranald I.; van Herk, Marcel

2016-12-01

Contour propagation is an essential component of adaptive radiotherapy, but current contour propagation algorithms are not yet sufficiently accurate to be used without manual supervision. Manual review of propagated contours is time-consuming, making routine implementation of real-time adaptive radiotherapy unrealistic. Automated methods of monitoring the performance of contour propagation algorithms are therefore required. We have developed an automated workflow for patient-specific quality control of contour propagation and validated it on a cohort of head and neck patients, on which parotids were outlined by two observers. Two types of error were simulated—mislabelling of contours and introducing noise in the scans before propagation. The ability of the workflow to correctly predict the occurrence of errors was tested, taking both sets of observer contours as ground truth, using receiver operator characteristic analysis. The area under the curve was 0.90 and 0.85 for the observers, indicating good ability to predict the occurrence of errors. This tool could potentially be used to identify propagated contours that are likely to be incorrect, acting as a flag for manual review of these contours. This would make contour propagation more efficient, facilitating the routine implementation of adaptive radiotherapy.

The advantages of the surface Laplacian in brain-computer interface research.

PubMed

McFarland, Dennis J

2015-09-01

Brain-computer interface (BCI) systems frequently use signal processing methods, such as spatial filtering, to enhance performance. The surface Laplacian can reduce spatial noise and aid in identification of sources. In BCI research, these two functions of the surface Laplacian correspond to prediction accuracy and signal orthogonality. In the present study, an off-line analysis of data from a sensorimotor rhythm-based BCI task dissociated these functions of the surface Laplacian by comparing nearest-neighbor and next-nearest neighbor Laplacian algorithms. The nearest-neighbor Laplacian produced signals that were more orthogonal while the next-nearest Laplacian produced signals that resulted in better accuracy. Both prediction and signal identification are important for BCI research. Better prediction of user's intent produces increased speed and accuracy of communication and control. Signal identification is important for ruling out the possibility of control by artifacts. Identifying the nature of the control signal is relevant both to understanding exactly what is being studied and in terms of usability for individuals with limited motor control. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Space shuttle propulsion parameter estimation using optimal estimation techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

The first twelve system state variables are presented with the necessary mathematical developments for incorporating them into the filter/smoother algorithm. Other state variables, i.e., aerodynamic coefficients can be easily incorporated into the estimation algorithm, representing uncertain parameters, but for initial checkout purposes are treated as known quantities. An approach for incorporating the NASA propulsion predictive model results into the optimal estimation algorithm was identified. This approach utilizes numerical derivatives and nominal predictions within the algorithm with global iterations of the algorithm. The iterative process is terminated when the quality of the estimates provided no longer significantly improves.

Developing a dengue forecast model using machine learning: A case study in China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qin; Wang, Li; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zhang, Qingying; Luo, Ganfeng; Li, Zhihao; He, Jianfeng; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

2017-01-01

Background In China, dengue remains an important public health issue with expanded areas and increased incidence recently. Accurate and timely forecasts of dengue incidence in China are still lacking. We aimed to use the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to develop an accurate predictive model of dengue. Methodology/Principal findings Weekly dengue cases, Baidu search queries and climate factors (mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) during 2011–2014 in Guangdong were gathered. A dengue search index was constructed for developing the predictive models in combination with climate factors. The observed year and week were also included in the models to control for the long-term trend and seasonality. Several machine learning algorithms, including the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm, step-down linear regression model, gradient boosted regression tree algorithm (GBM), negative binomial regression model (NBM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) linear regression model and generalized additive model (GAM), were used as candidate models to predict dengue incidence. Performance and goodness of fit of the models were assessed using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and R-squared measures. The residuals of the models were examined using the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function analyses to check the validity of the models. The models were further validated using dengue surveillance data from five other provinces. The epidemics during the last 12 weeks and the peak of the 2014 large outbreak were accurately forecasted by the SVR model selected by a cross-validation technique. Moreover, the SVR model had the consistently smallest prediction error rates for tracking the dynamics of dengue and forecasting the outbreaks in other areas in China. Conclusion and significance The proposed SVR model achieved a superior performance in comparison with other forecasting techniques assessed in this study. The findings can help the government and community respond early to dengue epidemics. PMID:29036169

Development of an Evolutionary Algorithm for the ab Initio Discovery of Two-Dimensional Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revard, Benjamin Charles

Crystal structure prediction is an important first step on the path toward computational materials design. Increasingly robust methods have become available in recent years for computing many materials properties, but because properties are largely a function of crystal structure, the structure must be known before these methods can be brought to bear. In addition, structure prediction is particularly useful for identifying low-energy structures of subperiodic materials, such as two-dimensional (2D) materials, which may adopt unexpected structures that differ from those of the corresponding bulk phases. Evolutionary algorithms, which are heuristics for global optimization inspired by biological evolution, have proven to be a fruitful approach for tackling the problem of crystal structure prediction. This thesis describes the development of an improved evolutionary algorithm for structure prediction and several applications of the algorithm to predict the structures of novel low-energy 2D materials. The first part of this thesis contains an overview of evolutionary algorithms for crystal structure prediction and presents our implementation, including details of extending the algorithm to search for clusters, wires, and 2D materials, improvements to efficiency when running in parallel, improved composition space sampling, and the ability to search for partial phase diagrams. We then present several applications of the evolutionary algorithm to 2D systems, including InP, the C-Si and Sn-S phase diagrams, and several group-IV dioxides. This thesis makes use of the Cornell graduate school's "papers" option. Chapters 1 and 3 correspond to the first-author publications of Refs. [131] and [132], respectively, and chapter 2 will soon be submitted as a first-author publication. The material in chapter 4 is taken from Ref. [144], in which I share joint first-authorship. In this case I have included only my own contributions.

A parallel algorithm for the initial screening of space debris collisions prediction using the SGP4/SDP4 models and GPU acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Mingpei; Xu, Ming; Fu, Xiaoyu

2017-05-01

Currently, a tremendous amount of space debris in Earth's orbit imperils operational spacecraft. It is essential to undertake risk assessments of collisions and predict dangerous encounters in space. However, collision predictions for an enormous amount of space debris give rise to large-scale computations. In this paper, a parallel algorithm is established on the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) platform of NVIDIA Corporation for collision prediction. According to the parallel structure of NVIDIA graphics processors, a block decomposition strategy is adopted in the algorithm. Space debris is divided into batches, and the computation and data transfer operations of adjacent batches overlap. As a consequence, the latency to access shared memory during the entire computing process is significantly reduced, and a higher computing speed is reached. Theoretically, a simulation of collision prediction for space debris of any amount and for any time span can be executed. To verify this algorithm, a simulation example including 1382 pieces of debris, whose operational time scales vary from 1 min to 3 days, is conducted on Tesla C2075 of NVIDIA. The simulation results demonstrate that with the same computational accuracy as that of a CPU, the computing speed of the parallel algorithm on a GPU is 30 times that on a CPU. Based on this algorithm, collision prediction of over 150 Chinese spacecraft for a time span of 3 days can be completed in less than 3 h on a single computer, which meets the timeliness requirement of the initial screening task. Furthermore, the algorithm can be adapted for multiple tasks, including particle filtration, constellation design, and Monte-Carlo simulation of an orbital computation.

Deep learning improves prediction of CRISPR-Cpf1 guide RNA activity.

PubMed

Kim, Hui Kwon; Min, Seonwoo; Song, Myungjae; Jung, Soobin; Choi, Jae Woo; Kim, Younggwang; Lee, Sangeun; Yoon, Sungroh; Kim, Hyongbum Henry

2018-03-01

We present two algorithms to predict the activity of AsCpf1 guide RNAs. Indel frequencies for 15,000 target sequences were used in a deep-learning framework based on a convolutional neural network to train Seq-deepCpf1. We then incorporated chromatin accessibility information to create the better-performing DeepCpf1 algorithm for cell lines for which such information is available and show that both algorithms outperform previous machine learning algorithms on our own and published data sets.

A statistical analysis of RNA folding algorithms through thermodynamic parameter perturbation.

PubMed

Layton, D M; Bundschuh, R

2005-01-01

Computational RNA secondary structure prediction is rather well established. However, such prediction algorithms always depend on a large number of experimentally measured parameters. Here, we study how sensitive structure prediction algorithms are to changes in these parameters. We found already that for changes corresponding to the actual experimental error to which these parameters have been determined, 30% of the structure are falsely predicted whereas the ground state structure is preserved under parameter perturbation in only 5% of all the cases. We establish that base-pairing probabilities calculated in a thermal ensemble are viable although not a perfect measure for the reliability of the prediction of individual structure elements. Here, a new measure of stability using parameter perturbation is proposed, and its limitations are discussed.

Temporal and Spatial Simulation of Atmospheric Pollutant PM2.5 Changes and Risk Assessment of Population Exposure to Pollution Using Optimization Algorithms of the Back Propagation-Artificial Neural Network Model and GIS

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ping; Hong, Bo; He, Liang; Cheng, Fei; Zhao, Peng; Wei, Cailiang; Liu, Yunhui

2015-01-01

PM2.5 pollution has become of increasing public concern because of its relative importance and sensitivity to population health risks. Accurate predictions of PM2.5 pollution and population exposure risks are crucial to developing effective air pollution control strategies. We simulated and predicted the temporal and spatial changes of PM2.5 concentration and population exposure risks, by coupling optimization algorithms of the Back Propagation-Artificial Neural Network (BP-ANN) model and a geographical information system (GIS) in Xi’an, China, for 2013, 2020, and 2025. Results indicated that PM2.5 concentration was positively correlated with GDP, SO2, and NO2, while it was negatively correlated with population density, average temperature, precipitation, and wind speed. Principal component analysis of the PM2.5 concentration and its influencing factors’ variables extracted four components that accounted for 86.39% of the total variance. Correlation coefficients of the Levenberg-Marquardt (trainlm) and elastic (trainrp) algorithms were more than 0.8, the index of agreement (IA) ranged from 0.541 to 0.863 and from 0.502 to 0.803 by trainrp and trainlm algorithms, respectively; mean bias error (MBE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) indicated that the predicted values were very close to the observed values, and the accuracy of trainlm algorithm was better than the trainrp. Compared to 2013, temporal and spatial variation of PM2.5 concentration and risk of population exposure to pollution decreased in 2020 and 2025. The high-risk areas of population exposure to PM2.5 were mainly distributed in the northern region, where there is downtown traffic, abundant commercial activity, and more exhaust emissions. A moderate risk zone was located in the southern region associated with some industrial pollution sources, and there were mainly low-risk areas in the western and eastern regions, which are predominantly residential and educational areas. PMID:26426030

Temporal and Spatial Simulation of Atmospheric Pollutant PM2.5 Changes and Risk Assessment of Population Exposure to Pollution Using Optimization Algorithms of the Back Propagation-Artificial Neural Network Model and GIS.

PubMed

Zhang, Ping; Hong, Bo; He, Liang; Cheng, Fei; Zhao, Peng; Wei, Cailiang; Liu, Yunhui

2015-09-29

PM2.5 pollution has become of increasing public concern because of its relative importance and sensitivity to population health risks. Accurate predictions of PM2.5 pollution and population exposure risks are crucial to developing effective air pollution control strategies. We simulated and predicted the temporal and spatial changes of PM2.5 concentration and population exposure risks, by coupling optimization algorithms of the Back Propagation-Artificial Neural Network (BP-ANN) model and a geographical information system (GIS) in Xi'an, China, for 2013, 2020, and 2025. Results indicated that PM2.5 concentration was positively correlated with GDP, SO₂, and NO₂, while it was negatively correlated with population density, average temperature, precipitation, and wind speed. Principal component analysis of the PM2.5 concentration and its influencing factors' variables extracted four components that accounted for 86.39% of the total variance. Correlation coefficients of the Levenberg-Marquardt (trainlm) and elastic (trainrp) algorithms were more than 0.8, the index of agreement (IA) ranged from 0.541 to 0.863 and from 0.502 to 0.803 by trainrp and trainlm algorithms, respectively; mean bias error (MBE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) indicated that the predicted values were very close to the observed values, and the accuracy of trainlm algorithm was better than the trainrp. Compared to 2013, temporal and spatial variation of PM2.5 concentration and risk of population exposure to pollution decreased in 2020 and 2025. The high-risk areas of population exposure to PM2.5 were mainly distributed in the northern region, where there is downtown traffic, abundant commercial activity, and more exhaust emissions. A moderate risk zone was located in the southern region associated with some industrial pollution sources, and there were mainly low-risk areas in the western and eastern regions, which are predominantly residential and educational areas.

Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H.

1999-01-01

Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Test and evaluation of the HIDEC engine uptrim algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, R. J.; Myers, L. P.

1986-01-01

The highly integrated digital electronic control (HIDEC) program will demonstrate and evaluate the improvements in performance and mission effectiveness that result from integrated engine-airframe control systems. Performance improvements will result from an adaptive engine stall margin mode, a highly integrated mode that uses the airplane flight conditions and the resulting inlet distortion to continuously compute engine stall margin. When there is excessive stall margin, the engine is uptrimmed for more thrust by increasing engine pressure ratio (EPR). The EPR uptrim logic has been evaluated and implemented into computer simulations. Thrust improvements over 10 percent are predicted for subsonic flight conditions. The EPR uptrim was successfully demonstrated during engine ground tests. Test results verify model predictions at the conditions tested.

Control algorithms and applications of the wavefront sensorless adaptive optics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Liang; Wang, Bin; Zhou, Yuanshen; Yang, Huizhen

2017-10-01

Compared with the conventional adaptive optics (AO) system, the wavefront sensorless (WFSless) AO system need not to measure the wavefront and reconstruct it. It is simpler than the conventional AO in system architecture and can be applied to the complex conditions. Based on the analysis of principle and system model of the WFSless AO system, wavefront correction methods of the WFSless AO system were divided into two categories: model-free-based and model-based control algorithms. The WFSless AO system based on model-free-based control algorithms commonly considers the performance metric as a function of the control parameters and then uses certain control algorithm to improve the performance metric. The model-based control algorithms include modal control algorithms, nonlinear control algorithms and control algorithms based on geometrical optics. Based on the brief description of above typical control algorithms, hybrid methods combining the model-free-based control algorithm with the model-based control algorithm were generalized. Additionally, characteristics of various control algorithms were compared and analyzed. We also discussed the extensive applications of WFSless AO system in free space optical communication (FSO), retinal imaging in the human eye, confocal microscope, coherent beam combination (CBC) techniques and extended objects.

Deformation and Breakup of a Stretching Liquid Bridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franses, Elias I.; Liao, Ying-Chih; Basaran, Osman

2004-11-01

Surfactants are routinely used to control the breakup of drops and jets in applications as diverse as ink jet printing, crop spraying, and microarraying. While highly accurate algorithms for studying the breakup of surfactant-free drops and jets are well documented and a great deal of information is now available in such situations, little is known about the closely related problem of interface rupture when surfactant effects cannot be neglected. Here we analyze the deformation and breakup of a stretching liquid bridge whose surface is covered with an insoluble surfactant monolayer by means of a two-dimensional (2-d) finite element algorithm using elliptic mesh generation. That the predictions made with the 2-d algorithm are faithful to the physics is confirmed by demonstrating that the computed results accord well with our new high-speed visualization experiments and existing scaling theories. Comparisons are also made to computations made with a one-dimensional (1-d) algorithm based on the slender-jet equations.

Analysis of algorithms for predicting canopy fuel

Treesearch

Katharine L. Gray; Elizabeth Reinhardt

2003-01-01

We compared observed canopy fuel characteristics with those predicted by existing biomass algorithms. We specifically examined the accuracy of the biomass equations developed by Brown (1978. We used destructively sampled data obtained at 5 different study areas. We compared predicted and observed quantities of foliage and crown biomass for individual trees in our study...

A Combined Energy Management Algorithm for Wind Turbine/Battery Hybrid System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altin, Necmi; Eyimaya, Süleyman Emre

2018-03-01

From an energy management standpoint, natural phenomena such as solar irradiation and wind speed are uncontrolled variables, so the correlation between the energy generated by renewable energy sources and energy demand cannot always be predicted. For this reason, energy storage systems are used to provide more efficient renewable energy systems. In these systems, energy management systems are used to control the energy storage system and establish a balance between the generated power and the power demand. In addition, especially in wind turbines, rapidly varying wind speeds cause wind power fluctuations, which threaten the power system stability, especially at high power levels. Energy storage systems are also used to mitigate the power fluctuations and sustain the power system's stability. In these systems, another controller which controls the energy storage system power to mitigate power fluctuations is required. These two controllers are different from each other. In this study, a combined energy management algorithm is proposed which can perform both as an energy control system and a power fluctuation mitigation system. The proposed controller is tested with wind energy conversion system modeled in MATLAB/Simulink. Simulation results show that the proposed controller acts as an energy management system while, at the same time, mitigating power fluctuations.

A simple model-based control for Pichia pastoris allows a more efficient heterologous protein production bioprocess.

PubMed

Cos, Oriol; Ramon, Ramon; Montesinos, José Luis; Valero, Francisco

2006-09-05

A predictive control algorithm coupled with a PI feedback controller has been satisfactorily implemented in the heterologous Rhizopus oryzae lipase production by Pichia pastoris methanol utilization slow (Mut(s)) phenotype. This control algorithm has allowed the study of the effect of methanol concentration, ranging from 0.5 to 1.75 g/L, on heterologous protein production. The maximal lipolytic activity (490 UA/mL), specific yield (11,236 UA/g(biomass)), productivity (4,901 UA/L . h), and specific productivity (112 UA/g(biomass)h were reached for a methanol concentration of 1 g/L. These parameters are almost double than those obtained with a manual control at a similar methanol set-point. The study of the specific growth, consumption, and production rates showed different patterns for these rates depending on the methanol concentration set-point. Results obtained have shown the need of implementing a robust control scheme when reproducible quality and productivity are sought. It has been demonstrated that the model-based control proposed here is a very efficient, robust, and easy-to-implement strategy from an industrial application point of view. (c) 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Algorithm for Lossless Compression of Calibrated Hyperspectral Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiely, Aaron B.; Klimesh, Matthew A.

2010-01-01

A two-stage predictive method was developed for lossless compression of calibrated hyperspectral imagery. The first prediction stage uses a conventional linear predictor intended to exploit spatial and/or spectral dependencies in the data. The compressor tabulates counts of the past values of the difference between this initial prediction and the actual sample value. To form the ultimate predicted value, in the second stage, these counts are combined with an adaptively updated weight function intended to capture information about data regularities introduced by the calibration process. Finally, prediction residuals are losslessly encoded using adaptive arithmetic coding. Algorithms of this type are commonly tested on a readily available collection of images from the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) hyperspectral imager. On the standard calibrated AVIRIS hyperspectral images that are most widely used for compression benchmarking, the new compressor provides more than 0.5 bits/sample improvement over the previous best compression results. The algorithm has been implemented in Mathematica. The compression algorithm was demonstrated as beneficial on 12-bit calibrated AVIRIS images.

Evaluation of classifier topologies for the real-time classification of simultaneous limb motions.

PubMed

Ortiz-Catalan, Max; Branemark, Rickard; Hakansson, Bo

2013-01-01

The prediction of motion intent through the decoding of myoelectric signals has the potential to improve the functionally of limb prostheses. Considerable research on individual motion classifiers has been done to exploit this idea. A drawback with the individual prediction approach, however, is its limitation to serial control, which is slow, cumbersome, and unnatural. In this work, different classifier topologies suitable for the decoding of mixed classes, and thus capable of predicting simultaneous motions, were investigated in real-time. These topologies resulted in higher offline accuracies than previously achieved, but more importantly, positive indications of their suitability for real-time systems were found. Furthermore, in order to facilitate further development, benchmarking, and cooperation, the algorithms and data generated in this study are freely available as part of BioPatRec, an open source framework for the development of advanced prosthetic control strategies.

Algorithm aversion: people erroneously avoid algorithms after seeing them err.

PubMed

Dietvorst, Berkeley J; Simmons, Joseph P; Massey, Cade

2015-02-01

Research shows that evidence-based algorithms more accurately predict the future than do human forecasters. Yet when forecasters are deciding whether to use a human forecaster or a statistical algorithm, they often choose the human forecaster. This phenomenon, which we call algorithm aversion, is costly, and it is important to understand its causes. We show that people are especially averse to algorithmic forecasters after seeing them perform, even when they see them outperform a human forecaster. This is because people more quickly lose confidence in algorithmic than human forecasters after seeing them make the same mistake. In 5 studies, participants either saw an algorithm make forecasts, a human make forecasts, both, or neither. They then decided whether to tie their incentives to the future predictions of the algorithm or the human. Participants who saw the algorithm perform were less confident in it, and less likely to choose it over an inferior human forecaster. This was true even among those who saw the algorithm outperform the human.