SU-E-T-630: Predictive Modeling of Mortality, Tumor Control, and Normal Tissue Complications After Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy for Stage I Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lindsay, WD; Oncora Medical, LLC, Philadelphia, PA; Berlind, CG

Purpose: While rates of local control have been well characterized after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), less data are available characterizing survival and normal tissue toxicities, and no validated models exist assessing these parameters after SBRT. We evaluate the reliability of various machine learning techniques when applied to radiation oncology datasets to create predictive models of mortality, tumor control, and normal tissue complications. Methods: A dataset of 204 consecutive patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) at the University of Pennsylvania between 2009 and 2013more » was used to create predictive models of tumor control, normal tissue complications, and mortality in this IRB-approved study. Nearly 200 data fields of detailed patient- and tumor-specific information, radiotherapy dosimetric measurements, and clinical outcomes data were collected. Predictive models were created for local tumor control, 1- and 3-year overall survival, and nodal failure using 60% of the data (leaving the remainder as a test set). After applying feature selection and dimensionality reduction, nonlinear support vector classification was applied to the resulting features. Models were evaluated for accuracy and area under ROC curve on the 81-patient test set. Results: Models for common events in the dataset (such as mortality at one year) had the highest predictive power (AUC = .67, p < 0.05). For rare occurrences such as radiation pneumonitis and local failure (each occurring in less than 10% of patients), too few events were present to create reliable models. Conclusion: Although this study demonstrates the validity of predictive analytics using information extracted from patient medical records and can most reliably predict for survival after SBRT, larger sample sizes are needed to develop predictive models for normal tissue toxicities and more advanced machine learning methodologies need be consider in the future.« less

Adaptive vibration control of structures under earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lew, Jiann-Shiun; Juang, Jer-Nan; Loh, Chin-Hsiung

2017-04-01

techniques, for structural vibration suppression under earthquakes. Various control strategies have been developed to protect structures from natural hazards and improve the comfort of occupants in buildings. However, there has been little development of adaptive building control with the integration of real-time system identification and control design. Generalized predictive control, which combines the process of real-time system identification and the process of predictive control design, has received widespread acceptance and has been successfully applied to various test-beds. This paper presents a formulation of the predictive control scheme for adaptive vibration control of structures under earthquakes. Comprehensive simulations are performed to demonstrate and validate the proposed adaptive control technique for earthquake-induced vibration of a building.

A Hierarchical Model Predictive Tracking Control for Independent Four-Wheel Driving/Steering Vehicles with Coaxial Steering Mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itoh, Masato; Hagimori, Yuki; Nonaka, Kenichiro; Sekiguchi, Kazuma

2016-09-01

In this study, we apply a hierarchical model predictive control to omni-directional mobile vehicle, and improve the tracking performance. We deal with an independent four-wheel driving/steering vehicle (IFWDS) equipped with four coaxial steering mechanisms (CSM). The coaxial steering mechanism is a special one composed of two steering joints on the same axis. In our previous study with respect to IFWDS with ideal steering, we proposed a model predictive tracking control. However, this method did not consider constraints of the coaxial steering mechanism which causes delay of steering. We also proposed a model predictive steering control considering constraints of this mechanism. In this study, we propose a hierarchical system combining above two control methods for IFWDS. An upper controller, which deals with vehicle kinematics, runs a model predictive tracking control, and a lower controller, which considers constraints of coaxial steering mechanism, runs a model predictive steering control which tracks the predicted steering angle optimized an upper controller. We verify the superiority of this method by comparing this method with the previous method.

Cell fate reprogramming by control of intracellular network dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanudo, Jorge G. T.; Albert, Reka

Identifying control strategies for biological networks is paramount for practical applications that involve reprogramming a cell's fate, such as disease therapeutics and stem cell reprogramming. Although the topic of controlling the dynamics of a system has a long history in control theory, most of this work is not directly applicable to intracellular networks. Here we present a network control method that integrates the structural and functional information available for intracellular networks to predict control targets. Formulated in a logical dynamic scheme, our control method takes advantage of certain function-dependent network components and their relation to steady states in order to identify control targets, which are guaranteed to drive any initial state to the target state with 100% effectiveness and need to be applied only transiently for the system to reach and stay in the desired state. We illustrate our method's potential to find intervention targets for cancer treatment and cell differentiation by applying it to a leukemia signaling network and to the network controlling the differentiation of T cells. We find that the predicted control targets are effective in a broad dynamic framework. Moreover, several of the predicted interventions are supported by experiments. This work was supported by NSF Grant PHY 1205840.

Nonlinear model predictive control applied to the separation of praziquantel in simulated moving bed chromatography.

PubMed

Andrade Neto, A S; Secchi, A R; Souza, M B; Barreto, A G

2016-10-28

An adaptive nonlinear model predictive control of a simulated moving bed unit for the enantioseparation of praziquantel is presented. A first principle model was applied at the proposed purity control scheme. The main concern about this kind of model in a control framework is in regard to the computational effort to solve it; however, a fast enough solution was achieved. In order to evaluate the controller's performance, several cases were simulated, including external pumps and switching valve malfunctions. The problem of plant-model mismatch was also investigated, and for that reason a parameter estimation step was introduced in the control strategy. In every studied scenario, the controller was able to maintain the purity levels at their set points, which were set to 99% and 98.6% for extract and raffinate, respectively. Additionally, fast responses and smooth actuation were achieved. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Model predictive control of the solid oxide fuel cell stack temperature with models based on experimental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohjoranta, Antti; Halinen, Matias; Pennanen, Jari; Kiviaho, Jari

2015-03-01

Generalized predictive control (GPC) is applied to control the maximum temperature in a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) stack and the temperature difference over the stack. GPC is a model predictive control method and the models utilized in this work are ARX-type (autoregressive with extra input), multiple input-multiple output, polynomial models that were identified from experimental data obtained from experiments with a complete SOFC system. The proposed control is evaluated by simulation with various input-output combinations, with and without constraints. A comparison with conventional proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control is also made. It is shown that if only the stack maximum temperature is controlled, a standard PID controller can be used to obtain output performance comparable to that obtained with the significantly more complex model predictive controller. However, in order to control the temperature difference over the stack, both the stack minimum and the maximum temperature need to be controlled and this cannot be done with a single PID controller. In such a case the model predictive controller provides a feasible and effective solution.

Prediction based active ramp metering control strategy with mobility and safety assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Jie; Tu, Lili

2018-04-01

Ramp metering is one of the most direct and efficient motorway traffic flow management measures so as to improve traffic conditions. However, owing to short of traffic conditions prediction, in earlier studies, the impact on traffic flow dynamics of the applied RM control was not quantitatively evaluated. In this study, a RM control algorithm adopting Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework to predict and assess future traffic conditions, which taking both the current traffic conditions and the RM-controlled future traffic states into consideration, was presented. The designed RM control algorithm targets at optimizing the network mobility and safety performance. The designed algorithm is evaluated in a field-data-based simulation. Through comparing the presented algorithm controlled scenario with the uncontrolled scenario, it was proved that the proposed RM control algorithm can effectively relieve the congestion of traffic network with no significant compromises in safety aspect.

Rate-Based Model Predictive Control of Turbofan Engine Clearance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeCastro, Jonathan A.

2006-01-01

An innovative model predictive control strategy is developed for control of nonlinear aircraft propulsion systems and sub-systems. At the heart of the controller is a rate-based linear parameter-varying model that propagates the state derivatives across the prediction horizon, extending prediction fidelity to transient regimes where conventional models begin to lose validity. The new control law is applied to a demanding active clearance control application, where the objectives are to tightly regulate blade tip clearances and also anticipate and avoid detrimental blade-shroud rub occurrences by optimally maintaining a predefined minimum clearance. Simulation results verify that the rate-based controller is capable of satisfying the objectives during realistic flight scenarios where both a conventional Jacobian-based model predictive control law and an unconstrained linear-quadratic optimal controller are incapable of doing so. The controller is evaluated using a variety of different actuators, illustrating the efficacy and versatility of the control approach. It is concluded that the new strategy has promise for this and other nonlinear aerospace applications that place high importance on the attainment of control objectives during transient regimes.

Predicting the spread of sudden oak death in California (2010-2030): epidemic outcomes under no control

Treesearch

Ross K. Meentemeyer; Nik Cunniffe; Alex Cook; David M. Rizzo; Chris A. Gilligan

2010-01-01

Landscape- to regional-scale models of plant epidemics are direly needed to predict largescale impacts of disease and assess practicable options for control. While landscape heterogeneity is recognized as a major driver of disease dynamics, epidemiological models are rarely applied to realistic landscape conditions due to computational and data limitations. Here we...

Likelihood of achieving air quality targets under model uncertainties.

PubMed

Digar, Antara; Cohan, Daniel S; Cox, Dennis D; Kim, Byeong-Uk; Boylan, James W

2011-01-01

Regulatory attainment demonstrations in the United States typically apply a bright-line test to predict whether a control strategy is sufficient to attain an air quality standard. Photochemical models are the best tools available to project future pollutant levels and are a critical part of regulatory attainment demonstrations. However, because photochemical models are uncertain and future meteorology is unknowable, future pollutant levels cannot be predicted perfectly and attainment cannot be guaranteed. This paper introduces a computationally efficient methodology for estimating the likelihood that an emission control strategy will achieve an air quality objective in light of uncertainties in photochemical model input parameters (e.g., uncertain emission and reaction rates, deposition velocities, and boundary conditions). The method incorporates Monte Carlo simulations of a reduced form model representing pollutant-precursor response under parametric uncertainty to probabilistically predict the improvement in air quality due to emission control. The method is applied to recent 8-h ozone attainment modeling for Atlanta, Georgia, to assess the likelihood that additional controls would achieve fixed (well-defined) or flexible (due to meteorological variability and uncertain emission trends) targets of air pollution reduction. The results show that in certain instances ranking of the predicted effectiveness of control strategies may differ between probabilistic and deterministic analyses.

Machine learning and predictive data analytics enabling metrology and process control in IC fabrication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Narender; Zhang, Yunlin; Wall, Donald; Dirahoui, Bachir; Bailey, Todd C.

2015-03-01

Integrate circuit (IC) technology is going through multiple changes in terms of patterning techniques (multiple patterning, EUV and DSA), device architectures (FinFET, nanowire, graphene) and patterning scale (few nanometers). These changes require tight controls on processes and measurements to achieve the required device performance, and challenge the metrology and process control in terms of capability and quality. Multivariate data with complex nonlinear trends and correlations generally cannot be described well by mathematical or parametric models but can be relatively easily learned by computing machines and used to predict or extrapolate. This paper introduces the predictive metrology approach which has been applied to three different applications. Machine learning and predictive analytics have been leveraged to accurately predict dimensions of EUV resist patterns down to 18 nm half pitch leveraging resist shrinkage patterns. These patterns could not be directly and accurately measured due to metrology tool limitations. Machine learning has also been applied to predict the electrical performance early in the process pipeline for deep trench capacitance and metal line resistance. As the wafer goes through various processes its associated cost multiplies. It may take days to weeks to get the electrical performance readout. Predicting the electrical performance early on can be very valuable in enabling timely actionable decision such as rework, scrap, feedforward, feedback predicted information or information derived from prediction to improve or monitor processes. This paper provides a general overview of machine learning and advanced analytics application in the advanced semiconductor development and manufacturing.

Natural speech algorithm applied to baseline interview data can predict which patients will respond to psilocybin for treatment-resistant depression.

PubMed

Carrillo, Facundo; Sigman, Mariano; Fernández Slezak, Diego; Ashton, Philip; Fitzgerald, Lily; Stroud, Jack; Nutt, David J; Carhart-Harris, Robin L

2018-04-01

Natural speech analytics has seen some improvements over recent years, and this has opened a window for objective and quantitative diagnosis in psychiatry. Here, we used a machine learning algorithm applied to natural speech to ask whether language properties measured before psilocybin for treatment-resistant can predict for which patients it will be effective and for which it will not. A baseline autobiographical memory interview was conducted and transcribed. Patients with treatment-resistant depression received 2 doses of psilocybin, 10 mg and 25 mg, 7 days apart. Psychological support was provided before, during and after all dosing sessions. Quantitative speech measures were applied to the interview data from 17 patients and 18 untreated age-matched healthy control subjects. A machine learning algorithm was used to classify between controls and patients and predict treatment response. Speech analytics and machine learning successfully differentiated depressed patients from healthy controls and identified treatment responders from non-responders with a significant level of 85% of accuracy (75% precision). Automatic natural language analysis was used to predict effective response to treatment with psilocybin, suggesting that these tools offer a highly cost-effective facility for screening individuals for treatment suitability and sensitivity. The sample size was small and replication is required to strengthen inferences on these results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictive display design for the vehicles with time delay in dynamic response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efremov, A. V.; Tiaglik, M. S.; Irgaleev, I. H.; Efremov, E. V.

2018-02-01

The two ways for the improvement of flying qualities are considered: the predictive display (PD) and the predictive display integrated with the flight control system (FCS). The both ways allow to transforming the controlled element dynamics in the crossover frequency range, to improve the accuracy of tracking and to suppress the effect of time delay in the vehicle response too. The technique for optimization of the predictive law is applied to the landing task. The results of the mathematical modeling and experimental investigations carried out for this task are considered in the paper.

Adaptive adjustment of interval predictive control based on combined model and application in shell brand petroleum distillation tower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Chao; Zhang, Chunran; Gu, Xinfeng; Liu, Bin

2017-10-01

Constraints of the optimization objective are often unable to be met when predictive control is applied to industrial production process. Then, online predictive controller will not find a feasible solution or a global optimal solution. To solve this problem, based on Back Propagation-Auto Regressive with exogenous inputs (BP-ARX) combined control model, nonlinear programming method is used to discuss the feasibility of constrained predictive control, feasibility decision theorem of the optimization objective is proposed, and the solution method of soft constraint slack variables is given when the optimization objective is not feasible. Based on this, for the interval control requirements of the controlled variables, the slack variables that have been solved are introduced, the adaptive weighted interval predictive control algorithm is proposed, achieving adaptive regulation of the optimization objective and automatically adjust of the infeasible interval range, expanding the scope of the feasible region, and ensuring the feasibility of the interval optimization objective. Finally, feasibility and effectiveness of the algorithm is validated through the simulation comparative experiments.

Using VAPEPS for noise control on Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Badilla, Gloria; Bergen, Thomas; Scharton, Terry

1991-01-01

Noise environmental control is an important design consideration for Space Station Freedom (SSF), both for crew safety and productivity. Acoustic noise requirements are established to eliminate fatigue and potential hearing loss by crew members from long-term exposure and to facilitate speech communication. VAPEPS (VibroAcoustic Payload Environment Prediction System) is currently being applied to SSF for prediction of the on-orbit noise and vibration environments induced in the 50 to 10,000 Hz frequency range. Various sources such as fans, pumps, centrifuges, exercise equipment, and other mechanical devices are used in the analysis. The predictions will be used in design tradeoff studies and to provide confidence that requirements will be met. Preliminary predictions show that the required levels will be exceeded unless substantial noise control measures are incorporated in the SSF design. Predicted levels for an SSF design without acoustic control treatments exceed requirements by 25 dB in some one-third octave frequency bands.

Spatial pattern formation facilitates eradication of infectious diseases

PubMed Central

Eisinger, Dirk; Thulke, Hans-Hermann

2008-01-01

Control of animal-born diseases is a major challenge faced by applied ecologists and public health managers. To improve cost-effectiveness, the effort required to control such pathogens needs to be predicted as accurately as possible. In this context, we reviewed the anti-rabies vaccination schemes applied around the world during the past 25 years. We contrasted predictions from classic approaches based on theoretical population ecology (which governs rabies control to date) with a newly developed individual-based model. Our spatially explicit approach allowed for the reproduction of pattern formation emerging from a pathogen's spread through its host population. We suggest that a much lower management effort could eliminate the disease than that currently in operation. This is supported by empirical evidence from historic field data. Adapting control measures to the new prediction would save one-third of resources in future control programmes. The reason for the lower prediction is the spatial structure formed by spreading infections in spatially arranged host populations. It is not the result of technical differences between models. Synthesis and applications. For diseases predominantly transmitted by neighbourhood interaction, our findings suggest that the emergence of spatial structures facilitates eradication. This may have substantial implications for the cost-effectiveness of existing disease management schemes, and suggests that when planning management strategies consideration must be given to methods that reflect the spatial nature of the pathogen–host system. PMID:18784795

Robust PBPK/PD-Based Model Predictive Control of Blood Glucose.

PubMed

Schaller, Stephan; Lippert, Jorg; Schaupp, Lukas; Pieber, Thomas R; Schuppert, Andreas; Eissing, Thomas

2016-07-01

Automated glucose control (AGC) has not yet reached the point where it can be applied clinically [3]. Challenges are accuracy of subcutaneous (SC) glucose sensors, physiological lag times, and both inter- and intraindividual variability. To address above issues, we developed a novel scheme for MPC that can be applied to AGC. An individualizable generic whole-body physiology-based pharmacokinetic and dynamics (PBPK/PD) model of the glucose, insulin, and glucagon metabolism has been used as the predictive kernel. The high level of mechanistic detail represented by the model takes full advantage of the potential of MPC and may make long-term prediction possible as it captures at least some relevant sources of variability [4]. Robustness against uncertainties was increased by a control cascade relying on proportional-integrative derivative-based offset control. The performance of this AGC scheme was evaluated in silico and retrospectively using data from clinical trials. This analysis revealed that our approach handles sensor noise with a MARD of 10%-14%, and model uncertainties and disturbances. The results suggest that PBPK/PD models are well suited for MPC in a glucose control setting, and that their predictive power in combination with the integrated database-driven (a priori individualizable) model framework will help overcome current challenges in the development of AGC systems. This study provides a new, generic, and robust mechanistic approach to AGC using a PBPK platform with extensive a priori (database) knowledge for individualization.

Processes in the development of mathematics in kindergarten children from Title 1 schools.

PubMed

Foster, Matthew E; Anthony, Jason L; Clements, Doug H; Sarama, Julie H

2015-12-01

This study examined how well nonverbal IQ (or fluid intelligence), vocabulary, phonological awareness (PA), rapid autonomized naming (RAN), and phonological short-term memory (STM) predicted mathematics outcomes. The 208 participating kindergartners were administered tests of fluid intelligence, vocabulary, PA, RAN, STM, and numeracy in the fall of kindergarten, whereas tests of numeracy and applied problems were administered in the spring of kindergarten. Fall numeracy scores accounted for substantial variation in spring outcomes (R(2) values = .49 and .32 for numeracy and applied problems, respectively), which underscores the importance of preschool math instruction and screening for mathematics learning difficulties on entry into kindergarten. Fluid intelligence and PA significantly predicted unique variation in spring numeracy scores (ΔR(2) = .05) after controlling for autoregressive effects and classroom nesting. Fluid intelligence, PA, and STM significantly predicted unique variation in spring applied problems scores (ΔR(2) = .14) after controlling for autoregressive effects and classroom nesting. Although the contributions of fluid intelligence, PA, and STM toward math outcomes were reliable and arguably important, they were small. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A multidimensional stability model for predicting shallow landslide size and shape across landscapes

Treesearch

David G. Milledge; Dino Bellugi; Jim A. McKean; Alexander L. Densmore; William E. Dietrich

2014-01-01

The size of a shallow landslide is a fundamental control on both its hazard and geomorphic importance. Existing models are either unable to predict landslide size or are computationally intensive such that they cannot practically be applied across landscapes. We derive a model appropriate for natural slopes that is capable of predicting shallow landslide size but...

Application of model predictive control for optimal operation of wind turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Yuan; Cao, Pei; Tang, J.

2017-04-01

For large-scale wind turbines, reducing maintenance cost is a major challenge. Model predictive control (MPC) is a promising approach to deal with multiple conflicting objectives using the weighed sum approach. In this research, model predictive control method is applied to wind turbine to find an optimal balance between multiple objectives, such as the energy capture, loads on turbine components, and the pitch actuator usage. The actuator constraints are integrated into the objective function at the control design stage. The analysis is carried out in both the partial load region and full load region, and the performances are compared with those of a baseline gain scheduling PID controller. The application of this strategy achieves enhanced balance of component loads, the average power and actuator usages in partial load region.

Learning to apply models of materials while explaining their properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpin, Tiia; Juuti, Kalle; Lavonen, Jari

2014-09-01

Background:Applying structural models is important to chemistry education at the upper secondary level, but it is considered one of the most difficult topics to learn. Purpose:This study analyses to what extent in designed lessons students learned to apply structural models in explaining the properties and behaviours of various materials. Sample:An experimental group is 27 Finnish upper secondary school students and control group included 18 students from the same school. Design and methods:In quasi-experimental setting, students were guided through predict, observe, explain activities in four practical work situations. It was intended that the structural models would encourage students to learn how to identify and apply appropriate models when predicting and explaining situations. The lessons, organised over a one-week period, began with a teacher's demonstration and continued with student experiments in which they described the properties and behaviours of six household products representing three different materials. Results:Most students in the experimental group learned to apply the models correctly, as demonstrated by post-test scores that were significantly higher than pre-test scores. The control group showed no significant difference between pre- and post-test scores. Conclusions:The findings indicate that the intervention where students engage in predict, observe, explain activities while several materials and models are confronted at the same time, had a positive effect on learning outcomes.

Intelligent monitoring and control of semiconductor manufacturing equipment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murdock, Janet L.; Hayes-Roth, Barbara

1991-01-01

The use of AI methods to monitor and control semiconductor fabrication in a state-of-the-art manufacturing environment called the Rapid Thermal Multiprocessor is described. Semiconductor fabrication involves many complex processing steps with limited opportunities to measure process and product properties. By applying additional process and product knowledge to that limited data, AI methods augment classical control methods by detecting abnormalities and trends, predicting failures, diagnosing, planning corrective action sequences, explaining diagnoses or predictions, and reacting to anomalous conditions that classical control systems typically would not correct. Research methodology and issues are discussed, and two diagnosis scenarios are examined.

Neural network based automatic limit prediction and avoidance system and method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calise, Anthony J. (Inventor); Prasad, Jonnalagadda V. R. (Inventor); Horn, Joseph F. (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A method for performance envelope boundary cueing for a vehicle control system comprises the steps of formulating a prediction system for a neural network and training the neural network to predict values of limited parameters as a function of current control positions and current vehicle operating conditions. The method further comprises the steps of applying the neural network to the control system of the vehicle, where the vehicle has capability for measuring current control positions and current vehicle operating conditions. The neural network generates a map of current control positions and vehicle operating conditions versus the limited parameters in a pre-determined vehicle operating condition. The method estimates critical control deflections from the current control positions required to drive the vehicle to a performance envelope boundary. Finally, the method comprises the steps of communicating the critical control deflection to the vehicle control system; and driving the vehicle control system to provide a tactile cue to an operator of the vehicle as the control positions approach the critical control deflections.

Applying Sigma Metrics to Reduce Outliers.

PubMed

Litten, Joseph

2017-03-01

Sigma metrics can be used to predict assay quality, allowing easy comparison of instrument quality and predicting which tests will require minimal quality control (QC) rules to monitor the performance of the method. A Six Sigma QC program can result in fewer controls and fewer QC failures for methods with a sigma metric of 5 or better. The higher the number of methods with a sigma metric of 5 or better, the lower the costs for reagents, supplies, and control material required to monitor the performance of the methods. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear Model Predictive Control with Constraint Satisfactions for a Quadcopter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ye; Ramirez-Jaime, Andres; Xu, Feng; Puig, Vicenç

2017-01-01

This paper presents a nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) strategy combined with constraint satisfactions for a quadcopter. The full dynamics of the quadcopter describing the attitude and position are nonlinear, which are quite sensitive to changes of inputs and disturbances. By means of constraint satisfactions, partial nonlinearities and modeling errors of the control-oriented model of full dynamics can be transformed into the inequality constraints. Subsequently, the quadcopter can be controlled by an NMPC controller with the updated constraints generated by constraint satisfactions. Finally, the simulation results applied to a quadcopter simulator are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

Unscented Kalman Filter-Trained Neural Networks for Slip Model Prediction

PubMed Central

Li, Zhencai; Wang, Yang; Liu, Zhen

2016-01-01

The purpose of this work is to investigate the accurate trajectory tracking control of a wheeled mobile robot (WMR) based on the slip model prediction. Generally, a nonholonomic WMR may increase the slippage risk, when traveling on outdoor unstructured terrain (such as longitudinal and lateral slippage of wheels). In order to control a WMR stably and accurately under the effect of slippage, an unscented Kalman filter and neural networks (NNs) are applied to estimate the slip model in real time. This method exploits the model approximating capabilities of nonlinear state–space NN, and the unscented Kalman filter is used to train NN’s weights online. The slip parameters can be estimated and used to predict the time series of deviation velocity, which can be used to compensate control inputs of a WMR. The results of numerical simulation show that the desired trajectory tracking control can be performed by predicting the nonlinear slip model. PMID:27467703

Fish consumption in a sample of people in Bandar Abbas, Iran: application of the theory of planned behavior.

PubMed

Aghamolaei, Teamur; Sadat Tavafian, Sedigheh; Madani, Abdoulhossain

2012-09-01

This study aimed to apply the conceptual framework of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to explain fish consumption in a sample of people who lived in Bandar Abbass, Iran. We investigated the role of three traditional constructs of TPB that included attitude, social norms, and perceived behavioral control in an effort to characterize the intention to consume fish as well as the behavioral trends that characterize fish consumption. Data were derived from a cross-sectional sample of 321 subjects. Alpha coefficient correlation and linear regression analysis were applied to test the relationships between constructs. The predictors of fish consumption frequency were also evaluated. Multiple regression analysis revealed that attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control significantly predicted intention to eat fish (R2 = 0.54, F = 128.4, P < 0.001). Multiple regression analysis for the intention to eat fish and perceived behavioral control revealed that both factors significantly predicted fish consumption frequency (R2 = 0.58, F = 223.1, P < 0.001). The results indicated that the models fit well with the data. Attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control all had significant positive impacts on behavioral intention. Moreover, both intention and perceived behavioral control could be used to predict the frequency of fish consumption.

Dynamics and control of quadcopter using linear model predictive control approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, M.; Okasha, M.; Idres, M. M.

2017-12-01

This paper investigates the dynamics and control of a quadcopter using the Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach. The dynamic model is of high fidelity and nonlinear, with six degrees of freedom that include disturbances and model uncertainties. The control approach is developed based on MPC to track different reference trajectories ranging from simple ones such as circular to complex helical trajectories. In this control technique, a linearized model is derived and the receding horizon method is applied to generate the optimal control sequence. Although MPC is computer expensive, it is highly effective to deal with the different types of nonlinearities and constraints such as actuators’ saturation and model uncertainties. The MPC parameters (control and prediction horizons) are selected by trial-and-error approach. Several simulation scenarios are performed to examine and evaluate the performance of the proposed control approach using MATLAB and Simulink environment. Simulation results show that this control approach is highly effective to track a given reference trajectory.

Initial Evaluations of LoC Prediction Algorithms Using the NASA Vertical Motion Simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krishnakumar, Kalmanje; Stepanyan, Vahram; Barlow, Jonathan; Hardy, Gordon; Dorais, Greg; Poolla, Chaitanya; Reardon, Scott; Soloway, Donald

2014-01-01

Flying near the edge of the safe operating envelope is an inherently unsafe proposition. Edge of the envelope here implies that small changes or disturbances in system state or system dynamics can take the system out of the safe envelope in a short time and could result in loss-of-control events. This study evaluated approaches to predicting loss-of-control safety margins as the aircraft gets closer to the edge of the safe operating envelope. The goal of the approach is to provide the pilot aural, visual, and tactile cues focused on maintaining the pilot's control action within predicted loss-of-control boundaries. Our predictive architecture combines quantitative loss-of-control boundaries, an adaptive prediction method to estimate in real-time Markov model parameters and associated stability margins, and a real-time data-based predictive control margins estimation algorithm. The combined architecture is applied to a nonlinear transport class aircraft. Evaluations of various feedback cues using both test and commercial pilots in the NASA Ames Vertical Motion-base Simulator (VMS) were conducted in the summer of 2013. The paper presents results of this evaluation focused on effectiveness of these approaches and the cues in preventing the pilots from entering a loss-of-control event.

Control and prediction components of movement planning in stuttering vs. nonstuttering adults

PubMed Central

Daliri, Ayoub; Prokopenko, Roman A.; Flanagan, J. Randall; Max, Ludo

2014-01-01

Purpose Stuttering individuals show speech and nonspeech sensorimotor deficiencies. To perform accurate movements, the sensorimotor system needs to generate appropriate control signals and correctly predict their sensory consequences. Using a reaching task, we examined the integrity of these control and prediction components, separately, for movements unrelated to the speech motor system. Method Nine stuttering and nine nonstuttering adults made fast reaching movements to visual targets while sliding an object under the index finger. To quantify control, we determined initial direction error and end-point error. To quantify prediction, we calculated the correlation between vertical and horizontal forces applied to the object—an index of how well vertical force (preventing slip) anticipated direction-dependent variations in horizontal force (moving the object). Results Directional and end-point error were significantly larger for the stuttering group. Both groups performed similarly in scaling vertical force with horizontal force. Conclusions The stuttering group's reduced reaching accuracy suggests limitations in generating control signals for voluntary movements, even for non-orofacial effectors. Typical scaling of vertical force with horizontal force suggests an intact ability to predict the consequences of planned control signals. Stuttering may be associated with generalized deficiencies in planning control signals rather than predicting the consequences of those signals. PMID:25203459

Constrained model predictive control, state estimation and coordination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Jun

In this dissertation, we study the interaction between the control performance and the quality of the state estimation in a constrained Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework for systems with stochastic disturbances. This consists of three parts: (i) the development of a constrained MPC formulation that adapts to the quality of the state estimation via constraints; (ii) the application of such a control law in a multi-vehicle formation coordinated control problem in which each vehicle operates subject to a no-collision constraint posed by others' imperfect prediction computed from finite bit-rate, communicated data; (iii) the design of the predictors and the communication resource assignment problem that satisfy the performance requirement from Part (ii). Model Predictive Control (MPC) is of interest because it is one of the few control design methods which preserves standard design variables and yet handles constraints. MPC is normally posed as a full-state feedback control and is implemented in a certainty-equivalence fashion with best estimates of the states being used in place of the exact state. However, if the state constraints were handled in the same certainty-equivalence fashion, the resulting control law could drive the real state to violate the constraints frequently. Part (i) focuses on exploring the inclusion of state estimates into the constraints. It does this by applying constrained MPC to a system with stochastic disturbances. The stochastic nature of the problem requires re-posing the constraints in a probabilistic form. In Part (ii), we consider applying constrained MPC as a local control law in a coordinated control problem of a group of distributed autonomous systems. Interactions between the systems are captured via constraints. First, we inspect the application of constrained MPC to a completely deterministic case. Formation stability theorems are derived for the subsystems and conditions on the local constraint set are derived in order to guarantee local stability or convergence to a target state. If these conditions are met for all subsystems, then this stability is inherited by the overall system. For the case when each subsystem suffers from disturbances in the dynamics, own self-measurement noises, and quantization errors on neighbors' information due to the finite-bit-rate channels, the constrained MPC strategy developed in Part (i) is appropriate to apply. In Part (iii), we discuss the local predictor design and bandwidth assignment problem in a coordinated vehicle formation context. The MPC controller used in Part (ii) relates the formation control performance and the information quality in the way that large standoff implies conservative performance. We first develop an LMI (Linear Matrix Inequality) formulation for cross-estimator design in a simple two-vehicle scenario with non-standard information: one vehicle does not have access to the other's exact control value applied at each sampling time, but to its known, pre-computed, coupling linear feedback control law. Then a similar LMI problem is formulated for the bandwidth assignment problem that minimizes the total number of bits by adjusting the prediction gain matrices and the number of bits assigned to each variable. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

On Application of Model Predictive Control to Power Converter with Switching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanma, Tadanao; Fukuta, Junichi; Doki, Shinji; Ishida, Muneaki; Okuma, Shigeru; Matsumoto, Takashi; Nishimori, Eiji

This paper concerns a DC-DC converter control. In DC-DC converters, there exist both continuous components such as inductance, conductance and resistance and discrete ones, IGBT and MOSFET as semiconductor switching elements. Such a system can be regarded as a hybrid dynamical system. Thus, this paper presents a dc-dc control technique based on the model predictive control. Specifically, a case in which the load of the dc-dc converter changes from active to sleep is considered. In the case, a control method which makes the output voltage follow to the reference quickly in transition, and the switching frequency be constant in steady state. In addition, in applying the model predictive control to power electronics circuits, the switching characteristic of the device and the restriction condition for protection are also considered. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by comparing a conventional method through some simulation results.

Model predictive control of non-linear systems over networks with data quantization and packet loss.

PubMed

Yu, Jimin; Nan, Liangsheng; Tang, Xiaoming; Wang, Ping

2015-11-01

This paper studies the approach of model predictive control (MPC) for the non-linear systems under networked environment where both data quantization and packet loss may occur. The non-linear controlled plant in the networked control system (NCS) is represented by a Tagaki-Sugeno (T-S) model. The sensed data and control signal are quantized in both links and described as sector bound uncertainties by applying sector bound approach. Then, the quantized data are transmitted in the communication networks and may suffer from the effect of packet losses, which are modeled as Bernoulli process. A fuzzy predictive controller which guarantees the stability of the closed-loop system is obtained by solving a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Building and validating a prediction model for paediatric type 1 diabetes risk using next generation targeted sequencing of class II HLA genes.

PubMed

Zhao, Lue Ping; Carlsson, Annelie; Larsson, Helena Elding; Forsander, Gun; Ivarsson, Sten A; Kockum, Ingrid; Ludvigsson, Johnny; Marcus, Claude; Persson, Martina; Samuelsson, Ulf; Örtqvist, Eva; Pyo, Chul-Woo; Bolouri, Hamid; Zhao, Michael; Nelson, Wyatt C; Geraghty, Daniel E; Lernmark, Åke

2017-11-01

It is of interest to predict possible lifetime risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in young children for recruiting high-risk subjects into longitudinal studies of effective prevention strategies. Utilizing a case-control study in Sweden, we applied a recently developed next generation targeted sequencing technology to genotype class II genes and applied an object-oriented regression to build and validate a prediction model for T1D. In the training set, estimated risk scores were significantly different between patients and controls (P = 8.12 × 10 -92 ), and the area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was 0.917. Using the validation data set, we validated the result with AUC of 0.886. Combining both training and validation data resulted in a predictive model with AUC of 0.903. Further, we performed a "biological validation" by correlating risk scores with 6 islet autoantibodies, and found that the risk score was significantly correlated with IA-2A (Z-score = 3.628, P < 0.001). When applying this prediction model to the Swedish population, where the lifetime T1D risk ranges from 0.5% to 2%, we anticipate identifying approximately 20 000 high-risk subjects after testing all newborns, and this calculation would identify approximately 80% of all patients expected to develop T1D in their lifetime. Through both empirical and biological validation, we have established a prediction model for estimating lifetime T1D risk, using class II HLA. This prediction model should prove useful for future investigations to identify high-risk subjects for prevention research in high-risk populations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Relationship between body composition and postural control in prepubertal overweight/obese children: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Villarrasa-Sapiña, Israel; Álvarez-Pitti, Julio; Cabeza-Ruiz, Ruth; Redón, Pau; Lurbe, Empar; García-Massó, Xavier

2018-02-01

Excess body weight during childhood causes reduced motor functionality and problems in postural control, a negative influence which has been reported in the literature. Nevertheless, no information regarding the effect of body composition on the postural control of overweight and obese children is available. The objective of this study was therefore to establish these relationships. A cross-sectional design was used to establish relationships between body composition and postural control variables obtained in bipedal eyes-open and eyes-closed conditions in twenty-two children. Centre of pressure signals were analysed in the temporal and frequency domains. Pearson correlations were applied to establish relationships between variables. Principal component analysis was applied to the body composition variables to avoid potential multicollinearity in the regression models. These principal components were used to perform a multiple linear regression analysis, from which regression models were obtained to predict postural control. Height and leg mass were the body composition variables that showed the highest correlation with postural control. Multiple regression models were also obtained and several of these models showed a higher correlation coefficient in predicting postural control than simple correlations. These models revealed that leg and trunk mass were good predictors of postural control. More equations were found in the eyes-open than eyes-closed condition. Body weight and height are negatively correlated with postural control. However, leg and trunk mass are better postural control predictors than arm or body mass. Finally, body composition variables are more useful in predicting postural control when the eyes are open. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

State feedback control design for Boolean networks.

PubMed

Liu, Rongjie; Qian, Chunjiang; Liu, Shuqian; Jin, Yu-Fang

2016-08-26

Driving Boolean networks to desired states is of paramount significance toward our ultimate goal of controlling the progression of biological pathways and regulatory networks. Despite recent computational development of controllability of general complex networks and structural controllability of Boolean networks, there is still a lack of bridging the mathematical condition on controllability to real boolean operations in a network. Further, no realtime control strategy has been proposed to drive a Boolean network. In this study, we applied semi-tensor product to represent boolean functions in a network and explored controllability of a boolean network based on the transition matrix and time transition diagram. We determined the necessary and sufficient condition for a controllable Boolean network and mapped this requirement in transition matrix to real boolean functions and structure property of a network. An efficient tool is offered to assess controllability of an arbitrary Boolean network and to determine all reachable and non-reachable states. We found six simplest forms of controllable 2-node Boolean networks and explored the consistency of transition matrices while extending these six forms to controllable networks with more nodes. Importantly, we proposed the first state feedback control strategy to drive the network based on the status of all nodes in the network. Finally, we applied our reachability condition to the major switch of P53 pathway to predict the progression of the pathway and validate the prediction with published experimental results. This control strategy allowed us to apply realtime control to drive Boolean networks, which could not be achieved by the current control strategy for Boolean networks. Our results enabled a more comprehensive understanding of the evolution of Boolean networks and might be extended to output feedback control design.

Elementary Students' Effortful Control and Academic Achievement: The Mediating Role of Teacher-Student Relationship Quality

PubMed Central

Hernández, Maciel M.; Valiente, Carlos; Eisenberg, Nancy; Berger, Rebecca H.; Spinrad, Tracy L.; VanSchyndel, Sarah K.; Silva, Kassondra M.; Southworth, Jody; Thompson, Marilyn S.

2017-01-01

This study evaluated the association between effortful control in kindergarten and academic achievement one year later (N = 301), and whether teacher–student closeness and conflict in kindergarten mediated the association. Parents, teachers, and observers reported on children's effortful control, and teachers reported on their perceived levels of closeness and conflict with students. Students completed the passage comprehension and applied problems subtests of the Woodcock–Johnson tests of achievement, as well as a behavioral measure of effortful control. Analytical models predicting academic achievement were estimated using a structural equation model framework. Effortful control positively predicted academic achievement even when controlling for prior achievement and other covariates. Mediation hypotheses were tested in a separate model; effortful control positively predicted teacher–student closeness and strongly, negatively predicted teacher–student conflict. Teacher–student closeness and effortful control, but not teacher–student conflict, had small, positive associations with academic achievement. Effortful control also indirectly predicted higher academic achievement through its positive effect on teacher–student closeness and via its positive relation to early academic achievement. The findings suggest that teacher–student closeness is one mechanism by which effortful control is associated with academic achievement. Effortful control was also a consistent predictor of academic achievement, beyond prior achievement levels and controlling for teacher–student closeness and conflict, with implications for intervention programs on fostering regulation and achievement concurrently. PMID:28684888

Elementary Students' Effortful Control and Academic Achievement: The Mediating Role of Teacher-Student Relationship Quality.

PubMed

Hernández, Maciel M; Valiente, Carlos; Eisenberg, Nancy; Berger, Rebecca H; Spinrad, Tracy L; VanSchyndel, Sarah K; Silva, Kassondra M; Southworth, Jody; Thompson, Marilyn S

This study evaluated the association between effortful control in kindergarten and academic achievement one year later ( N = 301), and whether teacher-student closeness and conflict in kindergarten mediated the association. Parents, teachers, and observers reported on children's effortful control, and teachers reported on their perceived levels of closeness and conflict with students. Students completed the passage comprehension and applied problems subtests of the Woodcock-Johnson tests of achievement, as well as a behavioral measure of effortful control. Analytical models predicting academic achievement were estimated using a structural equation model framework. Effortful control positively predicted academic achievement even when controlling for prior achievement and other covariates. Mediation hypotheses were tested in a separate model; effortful control positively predicted teacher-student closeness and strongly, negatively predicted teacher-student conflict. Teacher-student closeness and effortful control, but not teacher-student conflict, had small, positive associations with academic achievement. Effortful control also indirectly predicted higher academic achievement through its positive effect on teacher-student closeness and via its positive relation to early academic achievement. The findings suggest that teacher-student closeness is one mechanism by which effortful control is associated with academic achievement. Effortful control was also a consistent predictor of academic achievement, beyond prior achievement levels and controlling for teacher-student closeness and conflict, with implications for intervention programs on fostering regulation and achievement concurrently.

Maintenance of equilibrium point control during an unexpectedly loaded rapid limb movement.

PubMed

Simmons, R W; Richardson, C

1984-06-08

Two experiments investigated whether the equilibrium point hypothesis or the mass-spring model of motor control subserves positioning accuracy during spring loaded, rapid, bi-articulated movement. For intact preparations, the equilibrium point hypothesis predicts response accuracy to be determined by a mixture of afferent and efferent information, whereas the mass-spring model predicts positioning to be under a direct control system. Subjects completed a series of load-resisted training trials to a spatial target. The magnitude of a sustained spring load was unexpectedly increased on selected trials. Results indicated positioning accuracy and applied force varied with increases in load, which suggests that the original efferent commands are modified by afferent information during the movement as predicted by the equilibrium point hypothesis.

A Multiple Agent Model of Human Performance in Automated Air Traffic Control and Flight Management Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corker, Kevin; Pisanich, Gregory; Condon, Gregory W. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

A predictive model of human operator performance (flight crew and air traffic control (ATC)) has been developed and applied in order to evaluate the impact of automation developments in flight management and air traffic control. The model is used to predict the performance of a two person flight crew and the ATC operators generating and responding to clearances aided by the Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS). The purpose of the modeling is to support evaluation and design of automated aids for flight management and airspace management and to predict required changes in procedure both air and ground in response to advancing automation in both domains. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Non linear predictive control of a LEGO mobile robot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merabti, H.; Bouchemal, B.; Belarbi, K.; Boucherma, D.; Amouri, A.

2014-10-01

Metaheuristics are general purpose heuristics which have shown a great potential for the solution of difficult optimization problems. In this work, we apply the meta heuristic, namely particle swarm optimization, PSO, for the solution of the optimization problem arising in NLMPC. This algorithm is easy to code and may be considered as alternatives for the more classical solution procedures. The PSO- NLMPC is applied to control a mobile robot for the tracking trajectory and obstacles avoidance. Experimental results show the strength of this approach.

Using Theory of Planned Behavior to Predict Healthy Eating among Danish Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gronhoj, Alice; Bech-Larsen, Tino; Chan, Kara; Tsang, Lennon

2013-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to apply the theory of planned behavior to predict Danish adolescents' behavioral intention for healthy eating. Design/methodology/approach: A cluster sample survey of 410 students aged 11 to 16 years studying in Grade 6 to Grade 10 was conducted in Denmark. Findings: Perceived behavioral control followed by…

Application of indoor noise prediction in the real world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, David N.

2002-11-01

Predicting indoor noise in industrial workrooms is an important part of the process of designing industrial plants. Predicted levels are used in the design process to determine compliance with occupational-noise regulations, and to estimate levels inside the walls in order to predict community noise radiated from the building. Once predicted levels are known, noise-control strategies can be developed. In this paper an overview of over 20 years of experience is given with the use of various prediction approaches to manage noise in Unilever plants. This work has applied empirical and ray-tracing approaches separately, and in combination, to design various packaging and production plants and other facilities. The advantages of prediction methods in general, and of the various approaches in particular, will be discussed. A case-study application of prediction methods to the optimization of noise-control measures in a food-packaging plant will be presented. Plans to acquire a simplified prediction model for use as a company noise-screening tool will be discussed.

Adaptation of reach-to-grasp movement in response to force perturbations.

PubMed

Rand, M K; Shimansky, Y; Stelmach, G E; Bloedel, J R

2004-01-01

This study examined how reach-to-grasp movements are modified during adaptation to external force perturbations applied on the arm during reach. Specifically, we examined whether the organization of these movements was dependent upon the condition under which the perturbation was applied. In response to an auditory signal, all subjects were asked to reach for a vertical dowel, grasp it between the index finger and thumb, and lift it a short distance off the table. The subjects were instructed to do the task as fast as possible. The perturbation was an elastic load acting on the wrist at an angle of 105 deg lateral to the reaching direction. The condition was modified by changing the predictability with which the perturbation was applied in a given trial. After recording unperturbed control trials, perturbations were applied first on successive trials (predictable perturbations) and then were applied randomly (unpredictable perturbations). In the early predictable perturbation trials, reach path length became longer and reaching duration increased. As more predictable perturbations were applied, the reach path length gradually decreased and became similar to that of control trials. Reaching duration also decreased gradually as the subjects adapted by exerting force against the perturbation. In addition, the amplitude of peak grip aperture during arm transport initially increased in response to repeated perturbations. During the course of learning, it reached its maximum and thereafter slightly decreased. However, it did not return to the normal level. The subjects also adapted to the unpredictable perturbations through changes in both arm transport and grasping components, indicating that they can compensate even when the occurrence of the perturbation cannot be predicted during the inter-trial interval. Throughout random perturbation trials, large grip aperture values were observed, suggesting that a conservative aperture level is set regardless of whether the reaching arm is perturbed or not. In addition, the results of the predictable perturbations showed that the time from movement onset to the onset of grip aperture closure changed as adaptation occurred. However, the spatial location where the onset of finger closure occurred showed minimum changes with perturbation. These data suggest that the onset of finger closure is dependent upon distance to target rather than the temporal relationship of the grasp relative to the transport phase of the movement.

Prediction of Safety Stock Using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) and Technology of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) for Stock Control at Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mashuri, Chamdan; Suryono; Suseno, Jatmiko Endro

2018-02-01

This research was conducted by prediction of safety stock using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) and technology of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) for stock control at Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI). Well-controlled stock influenced company revenue and minimized cost. It discussed about information system of safety stock prediction developed through programming language of PHP. Input data consisted of demand got from automatic, online and real time acquisition using technology of RFID, then, sent to server and stored at online database. Furthermore, data of acquisition result was predicted by using algorithm of FTS applying universe of discourse defining and fuzzy sets determination. Fuzzy set result was continued to division process of universe of discourse in order to be to final step. Prediction result was displayed at information system dashboard developed. By using 60 data from demand data, prediction score was 450.331 and safety stock was 135.535. Prediction result was done by error deviation validation using Mean Square Percent Error of 15%. It proved that FTS was good enough in predicting demand and safety stock for stock control. For deeper analysis, researchers used data of demand and universe of discourse U varying at FTS to get various result based on test data used.

Study and classification of the abdominal adiposity throughout the application of the two-dimensional predictive equation Garaulet et al., in the clinical practice.

PubMed

Piernas Sánchez, C M; Morales Falo, E M; Zamora Navarro, S; Garaulet Aza, M

2010-01-01

The excess of visceral abdominal adipose tissue is one of the major concerns in obesity and its clinical treatment. To apply the two-dimensional predictive equation proposed by Garaulet et al. to determine the abdominal fat distribution and to compare the results with the body composition obtained by multi-frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis (M-BIA). We studied 230 women, who underwent anthropometry and M-BIA. The predictive equation was applied. Multivariate lineal and partial correlation analyses were performed with control for BMI and % body fat, using SPSS 15.0 with statistical significance P < 0.05. Overall, women were considered as having subcutaneous distribution of abdominal fat. Truncal fat, regional fat and muscular mass were negatively associated with VA/SA(predicted), while the visceral index obtained by M-BIA was positively correlated with VA/SA(predicted). The predictive equation may be useful in the clinical practice to obtain an accurate, costless and safe classification of abdominal obesity.

Multi input single output model predictive control of non-linear bio-polymerization process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arumugasamy, Senthil Kumar; Ahmad, Z.

This paper focuses on Multi Input Single Output (MISO) Model Predictive Control of bio-polymerization process in which mechanistic model is developed and linked with the feedforward neural network model to obtain a hybrid model (Mechanistic-FANN) of lipase-catalyzed ring-opening polymerization of ε-caprolactone (ε-CL) for Poly (ε-caprolactone) production. In this research, state space model was used, in which the input to the model were the reactor temperatures and reactor impeller speeds and the output were the molecular weight of polymer (M{sub n}) and polymer polydispersity index. State space model for MISO created using System identification tool box of Matlab™. This state spacemore » model is used in MISO MPC. Model predictive control (MPC) has been applied to predict the molecular weight of the biopolymer and consequently control the molecular weight of biopolymer. The result shows that MPC is able to track reference trajectory and give optimum movement of manipulated variable.« less

Maneuvering a reentry body via magneto-gasdynamic forces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohare, Leo Patrick

1992-04-01

Some of the characteristics of the interaction of an electrically conducting fluid with a non-uniform applied magnetic field and a potential magnetogasdynamic control system which may be used on future aerospace vehicles are presented. The flow through a two dimensional channel is predicted by numerically solving the magnetogasdynamic equations using a time marching technique. The fluid was modeled as a compressible, inviscid, supersonic gas with finite electrical conductivity. Development of the algorithm provided a means to predict and analyze phenomena associated with magnetogasdynamic flows which had not been previously explored using numerical methods. One such phenomena was the prediction of oblique waves resulting from the interaction of an electrically conducting fluid with a non-uniform applied magnetic field. Development of this tool provided a means to explore an application which might have potential use for future aerospace vehicle missions. In order to appreciate the significance of this technology, predictions were made of the pitching moment about a slender blunted cone, generated by a system relying on the fluid-magnetic interaction. These moments were compared to predictions of a pitching moment generated by a deflecting control surface on the same vehicle. It was shown that the proposed magnetogasdynamic system could produce moments which were on the same order as the moments produced by the flap systems at low deflection angles.

Head-target tracking control of well drilling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agzamov, Z. V.

2018-05-01

The method of directional drilling trajectory control for oil and gas wells using predictive models is considered in the paper. The developed method does not apply optimization and therefore there is no need for the high-performance computing. Nevertheless, it allows following the well-plan with high precision taking into account process input saturation. Controller output is calculated both from the present target reference point of the well-plan and from well trajectory prediction with using the analytical model. This method allows following a well-plan not only on angular, but also on the Cartesian coordinates. Simulation of the control system has confirmed the high precision and operation performance with a wide range of random disturbance action.

Computer program for prediction of fuel consumption statistical data for an upper stage three-axes stabilized on-off control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

A FORTRAN coded computer program and method to predict the reaction control fuel consumption statistics for a three axis stabilized rocket vehicle upper stage is described. A Monte Carlo approach is used which is more efficient by using closed form estimates of impulses. The effects of rocket motor thrust misalignment, static unbalance, aerodynamic disturbances, and deviations in trajectory, mass properties and control system characteristics are included. This routine can be applied to many types of on-off reaction controlled vehicles. The pseudorandom number generation and statistical analyses subroutines including the output histograms can be used for other Monte Carlo analyses problems.

Theory of the control of structures by low authority controllers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aubrun, J. N.

1978-01-01

The novel idea presented is based on the observation that if a structure is controlled by distributed systems of sensors and actuators with limited authority, i.e., if the controller is allowed to modify only moderately the natural modes and frequencies of the structure, then it should be possible to apply root perturbation techniques to predict analytically the behavior of the total system. Attention is given to the root perturbation formula first derived by Jacobi for infinitesimal perturbations which neglect the induced eigenvector perturbation, a more general form of Jacobi's formula, first-order structural equations and modal state vectors, state-space equations for damper-augmented structures, and modal damping prediction formulas.

Trajectory Control of Rendezvous with Maneuver Target Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Zhinqiang

2012-01-01

In this paper, a nonlinear trajectory control algorithm of rendezvous with maneuvering target spacecraft is presented. The disturbance forces on the chaser and target spacecraft and the thrust forces on the chaser spacecraft are considered in the analysis. The control algorithm developed in this paper uses the relative distance and relative velocity between the target and chaser spacecraft as the inputs. A general formula of reference relative trajectory of the chaser spacecraft to the target spacecraft is developed and applied to four different proximity maneuvers, which are in-track circling, cross-track circling, in-track spiral rendezvous and cross-track spiral rendezvous. The closed-loop differential equations of the proximity relative motion with the control algorithm are derived. It is proven in the paper that the tracking errors between the commanded relative trajectory and the actual relative trajectory are bounded within a constant region determined by the control gains. The prediction of the tracking errors is obtained. Design examples are provided to show the implementation of the control algorithm. The simulation results show that the actual relative trajectory tracks the commanded relative trajectory tightly. The predicted tracking errors match those calculated in the simulation results. The control algorithm developed in this paper can also be applied to interception of maneuver target spacecraft and relative trajectory control of spacecraft formation flying.

Drug release control and system understanding of sucrose esters matrix tablets by artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Chansanroj, Krisanin; Petrović, Jelena; Ibrić, Svetlana; Betz, Gabriele

2011-10-09

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were applied for system understanding and prediction of drug release properties from direct compacted matrix tablets using sucrose esters (SEs) as matrix-forming agents for controlled release of a highly water soluble drug, metoprolol tartrate. Complexity of the system was presented through the effects of SE concentration and tablet porosity at various hydrophilic-lipophilic balance (HLB) values of SEs ranging from 0 to 16. Both effects contributed to release behaviors especially in the system containing hydrophilic SEs where swelling phenomena occurred. A self-organizing map neural network (SOM) was applied for visualizing interrelation among the variables and multilayer perceptron neural networks (MLPs) were employed to generalize the system and predict the drug release properties based on HLB value and concentration of SEs and tablet properties, i.e., tablet porosity, volume and tensile strength. Accurate prediction was obtained after systematically optimizing network performance based on learning algorithm of MLP. Drug release was mainly attributed to the effects of SEs, tablet volume and tensile strength in multi-dimensional interrelation whereas tablet porosity gave a small impact. Ability of system generalization and accurate prediction of the drug release properties proves the validity of SOM and MLPs for the formulation modeling of direct compacted matrix tablets containing controlled release agents of different material properties. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Polygenic risk score analysis of pathologically confirmed Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Escott-Price, Valentina; Myers, Amanda J; Huentelman, Matt; Hardy, John

2017-08-01

Previous estimates of the utility of polygenic risk score analysis for the prediction of Alzheimer disease have given area under the curve (AUC) estimates of <80%. However, these have been based on the genetic analysis of clinical case-control series. Here, we apply the same analytic approaches to a pathological case-control series and show a predictive AUC of 84%. We suggest that this analysis has clinical utility and that there is limited room for further improvement using genetic data. Ann Neurol 2017;82:311-314. © 2017 American Neurological Association.

Relationship Between Magnitude of Applied Spin Recovery Moment and Ensuing Number of Recovery Turns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anglin, Ernie L.

1967-01-01

An analytical study has been made to investigate the relationship between the magnitude of the applied spin recovery moment and the ensuing number of turns made during recovery from a developed spin with a view toward determining how to interpolate or extrapolate spin recovery results with regard to determining the amount of control required for a satisfactory recovery. Five configurations were used which are considered to be representative of modern airplanes: a delta-wing fighter, a stub-wing research vehicle, a boostglide configuration, a supersonic trainer, and a sweptback-wing fighter. The results obtained indicate that there is a direct relationship between the magnitude of the applied spin recovery moments and the ensuing number of recovery turns made and that this relationship can be expressed in either simple multiplicative or exponential form. Either type of relationship was adequate for interpolating or extrapolating to predict turns required for recovery with satisfactory accuracy for configurations having relatively steady recovery motions. Any two recoveries from the same developed spin condition can be used as a basis for the predicted results provided these recoveries are obtained with the same ratio of recovery control deflections. No such predictive method can be expected to give satisfactory results for oscillatory recoveries.

Real-time control of combined surface water quantity and quality: polder flushing.

PubMed

Xu, M; van Overloop, P J; van de Giesen, N C; Stelling, G S

2010-01-01

In open water systems, keeping both water depths and water quality at specified values is critical for maintaining a 'healthy' water system. Many systems still require manual operation, at least for water quality management. When applying real-time control, both quantity and quality standards need to be met. In this paper, an artificial polder flushing case is studied. Model Predictive Control (MPC) is developed to control the system. In addition to MPC, a 'forward estimation' procedure is used to acquire water quality predictions for the simplified model used in MPC optimization. In order to illustrate the advantages of MPC, classical control [Proportional-Integral control (PI)] has been developed for comparison in the test case. The results show that both algorithms are able to control the polder flushing process, but MPC is more efficient in functionality and control flexibility.

MetaDP: a comprehensive web server for disease prediction of 16S rRNA metagenomic datasets.

PubMed

Xu, Xilin; Wu, Aiping; Zhang, Xinlei; Su, Mingming; Jiang, Taijiao; Yuan, Zhe-Ming

2016-01-01

High-throughput sequencing-based metagenomics has garnered considerable interest in recent years. Numerous methods and tools have been developed for the analysis of metagenomic data. However, it is still a daunting task to install a large number of tools and complete a complicated analysis, especially for researchers with minimal bioinformatics backgrounds. To address this problem, we constructed an automated software named MetaDP for 16S rRNA sequencing data analysis, including data quality control, operational taxonomic unit clustering, diversity analysis, and disease risk prediction modeling. Furthermore, a support vector machine-based prediction model for intestinal bowel syndrome (IBS) was built by applying MetaDP to microbial 16S sequencing data from 108 children. The success of the IBS prediction model suggests that the platform may also be applied to other diseases related to gut microbes, such as obesity, metabolic syndrome, or intestinal cancer, among others (http://metadp.cn:7001/).

Network control principles predict neuron function in the Caenorhabditis elegans connectome

PubMed Central

Chew, Yee Lian; Walker, Denise S.; Schafer, William R.; Barabási, Albert-László

2017-01-01

Recent studies on the controllability of complex systems offer a powerful mathematical framework to systematically explore the structure-function relationship in biological, social and technological networks1–3. Despite theoretical advances, we lack direct experimental proof of the validity of these widely used control principles. Here we fill this gap by applying a control framework to the connectome of the nematode C. elegans4–6, allowing us to predict the involvement of each C. elegans neuron in locomotor behaviours. We predict that control of the muscles or motor neurons requires twelve neuronal classes, which include neuronal groups previously implicated in locomotion by laser ablation7–13, as well as one previously uncharacterised neuron, PDB. We validate this prediction experimentally, finding that the ablation of PDB leads to a significant loss of dorsoventral polarity in large body bends. Importantly, control principles also allow us to investigate the involvement of individual neurons within each neuronal class. For example, we predict that, within the class of DD motor neurons, only three (DD04, DD05, or DD06) should affect locomotion when ablated individually. This prediction is also confirmed, with single-cell ablations of DD04 or DD05, but not DD02 or DD03, specifically affecting posterior body movements. Our predictions are robust to deletions of weak connections, missing connections, and rewired connections in the current connectome, indicating the potential applicability of this analytical framework to larger and less well-characterised connectomes. PMID:29045391

Network control principles predict neuron function in the Caenorhabditis elegans connectome

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Gang; Vértes, Petra E.; Towlson, Emma K.; Chew, Yee Lian; Walker, Denise S.; Schafer, William R.; Barabási, Albert-László

2017-10-01

Recent studies on the controllability of complex systems offer a powerful mathematical framework to systematically explore the structure-function relationship in biological, social, and technological networks. Despite theoretical advances, we lack direct experimental proof of the validity of these widely used control principles. Here we fill this gap by applying a control framework to the connectome of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, allowing us to predict the involvement of each C. elegans neuron in locomotor behaviours. We predict that control of the muscles or motor neurons requires 12 neuronal classes, which include neuronal groups previously implicated in locomotion by laser ablation, as well as one previously uncharacterized neuron, PDB. We validate this prediction experimentally, finding that the ablation of PDB leads to a significant loss of dorsoventral polarity in large body bends. Importantly, control principles also allow us to investigate the involvement of individual neurons within each neuronal class. For example, we predict that, within the class of DD motor neurons, only three (DD04, DD05, or DD06) should affect locomotion when ablated individually. This prediction is also confirmed; single cell ablations of DD04 or DD05 specifically affect posterior body movements, whereas ablations of DD02 or DD03 do not. Our predictions are robust to deletions of weak connections, missing connections, and rewired connections in the current connectome, indicating the potential applicability of this analytical framework to larger and less well-characterized connectomes.

Network control principles predict neuron function in the Caenorhabditis elegans connectome.

PubMed

Yan, Gang; Vértes, Petra E; Towlson, Emma K; Chew, Yee Lian; Walker, Denise S; Schafer, William R; Barabási, Albert-László

2017-10-26

Recent studies on the controllability of complex systems offer a powerful mathematical framework to systematically explore the structure-function relationship in biological, social, and technological networks. Despite theoretical advances, we lack direct experimental proof of the validity of these widely used control principles. Here we fill this gap by applying a control framework to the connectome of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, allowing us to predict the involvement of each C. elegans neuron in locomotor behaviours. We predict that control of the muscles or motor neurons requires 12 neuronal classes, which include neuronal groups previously implicated in locomotion by laser ablation, as well as one previously uncharacterized neuron, PDB. We validate this prediction experimentally, finding that the ablation of PDB leads to a significant loss of dorsoventral polarity in large body bends. Importantly, control principles also allow us to investigate the involvement of individual neurons within each neuronal class. For example, we predict that, within the class of DD motor neurons, only three (DD04, DD05, or DD06) should affect locomotion when ablated individually. This prediction is also confirmed; single cell ablations of DD04 or DD05 specifically affect posterior body movements, whereas ablations of DD02 or DD03 do not. Our predictions are robust to deletions of weak connections, missing connections, and rewired connections in the current connectome, indicating the potential applicability of this analytical framework to larger and less well-characterized connectomes.

Low-cost solar tracking system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, C. G.; Stephens, J. B.

1975-01-01

Smaller heat-collector is moved to stay in focus with the sun, instead of moving reflector. Tracking can be controlled by storing data of predicted solar positions or by applying conventional sun-sensing devices to follow solar movement.

Isothermal life prediction of composite lamina using a damage mechanics approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abuelfoutouh, Nader M.; Verrilli, Michael J.; Halford, Gary R.

1989-01-01

A method for predicting isothermal plastic fatigue life of a composite lamina is presented in which both fibers and matrix are isotropic materials. In general, the fatigue resistances of the matrix, fibers, and interfacial material must be known in order to predict composite fatigue life. Composite fatigue life is predicted using only the matrix fatigue resistance due to inelasticity micromechanisms. The effect of the fiber orientation on loading direction is accounted for while predicting composite life. The application is currently limited to isothermal cases where the internal thermal stresses that might arise from thermal strain mismatch between fibers and matrix are negligible. The theory is formulated to predict the fatigue life of a composite lamina under either load or strain control. It is applied currently to predict the life of tungsten-copper composite lamina at 260 C under tension-tension load control. The calculated life of the lamina is in good agreement with available composite low cycle fatigue data.

Active Control of Surge in Compressors Which Exhibit Abrupt Stall

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-06-01

sensor (of pressure, flow rate, etc.) is fed to a controller which applies a proper control law to drive the actuator (valve, The present paper reports...1993), who analyzed the influence of sensor and numerical simulation shows that: t) the predictions of control acutrsltin o th mxmm sabizd opesr...a sensor of compressor face total pressure), a The present paper considers the active suppression of surge in a butterfly throttle/actuation valve

Design and analysis of a model predictive controller for active queue management.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Chen, Hong; Yang, Xiaoping; Ma, Yan

2012-01-01

Model predictive (MP) control as a novel active queue management (AQM) algorithm in dynamic computer networks is proposed. According to the predicted future queue length in the data buffer, early packets at the router are dropped reasonably by the MPAQM controller so that the queue length reaches the desired value with minimal tracking error. The drop probability is obtained by optimizing the network performance. Further, randomized algorithms are applied to analyze the robustness of MPAQM successfully, and also to provide the stability domain of systems with uncertain network parameters. The performances of MPAQM are evaluated through a series of simulations in NS2. The simulation results show that the MPAQM algorithm outperforms RED, PI, and REM algorithms in terms of stability, disturbance rejection, and robustness. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Terminal spacecraft rendezvous and capture with LASSO model predictive control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartley, Edward N.; Gallieri, Marco; Maciejowski, Jan M.

2013-11-01

The recently investigated ℓasso model predictive control (MPC) is applied to the terminal phase of a spacecraft rendezvous and capture mission. The interaction between the cost function and the treatment of minimum impulse bit is also investigated. The propellant consumption with ℓasso MPC for the considered scenario is noticeably less than with a conventional quadratic cost and control actions are sparser in time. Propellant consumption and sparsity are competitive with those achieved using a zone-based ℓ1 cost function, whilst requiring fewer decision variables in the optimisation problem than the latter. The ℓasso MPC is demonstrated to meet tighter specifications on control precision and also avoids the risk of undesirable behaviours often associated with pure ℓ1 stage costs.

Predictive Thermal Control Applied to HabEx

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brooks, Thomas E.

2017-01-01

Exoplanet science can be accomplished with a telescope that has an internal coronagraph or with an external starshade. An internal coronagraph architecture requires extreme wavefront stability (10 pm change/10 minutes for 10(exp -10) contrast), so every source of wavefront error (WFE) must be controlled. Analysis has been done to estimate the thermal stability required to meet the wavefront stability requirement. This paper illustrates the potential of a new thermal control method called predictive thermal control (PTC) to achieve the required thermal stability. A simple development test using PTC indicates that PTC may meet the thermal stability requirements. Further testing of the PTC method in flight-like environments will be conducted in the X-ray and Cryogenic Facility (XRCF) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC).

Predictive thermal control applied to HabEx

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, Thomas E.

2017-09-01

Exoplanet science can be accomplished with a telescope that has an internal coronagraph or with an external starshade. An internal coronagraph architecture requires extreme wavefront stability (10 pm change/10 minutes for 10-10 contrast), so every source of wavefront error (WFE) must be controlled. Analysis has been done to estimate the thermal stability required to meet the wavefront stability requirement. This paper illustrates the potential of a new thermal control method called predictive thermal control (PTC) to achieve the required thermal stability. A simple development test using PTC indicates that PTC may meet the thermal stability requirements. Further testing of the PTC method in flight-like environments will be conducted in the X-ray and Cryogenic Facility (XRCF) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC).

Hybrid zero-voltage switching (ZVS) control for power inverters

DOEpatents

Amirahmadi, Ahmadreza; Hu, Haibing; Batarseh, Issa

2016-11-01

A power inverter combination includes a half-bridge power inverter including first and second semiconductor power switches receiving input power having an intermediate node therebetween providing an inductor current through an inductor. A controller includes input comparison circuitry receiving the inductor current having outputs coupled to first inputs of pulse width modulation (PWM) generation circuitry, and a predictive control block having an output coupled to second inputs of the PWM generation circuitry. The predictive control block is coupled to receive a measure of Vin and an output voltage at a grid connection point. A memory stores a current control algorithm configured for resetting a PWM period for a switching signal applied to control nodes of the first and second power switch whenever the inductor current reaches a predetermined upper limit or a predetermined lower limit.

Metering Best Practices Applied in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Research Support Facility: A Primer to the 2011 Measured and Modeled Energy Consumption Datasets

DOE Data Explorer

Sheppy, Michael; Beach, A.; Pless, Shanti

2016-08-09

Modern buildings are complex energy systems that must be controlled for energy efficiency. The Research Support Facility (RSF) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has hundreds of controllers -- computers that communicate with the building's various control systems -- to control the building based on tens of thousands of variables and sensor points. These control strategies were designed for the RSF's systems to efficiently support research activities. Many events that affect energy use cannot be reliably predicted, but certain decisions (such as control strategies) must be made ahead of time. NREL researchers modeled the RSF systems to predict how they might perform. They then monitor these systems to understand how they are actually performing and reacting to the dynamic conditions of weather, occupancy, and maintenance.

A Low Cost Mobile Robot Based on Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) Control System and Odometer for Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haq, R.; Prayitno, H.; Dzulkiflih; Sucahyo, I.; Rahmawati, E.

2018-03-01

In this article, the development of a low cost mobile robot based on PID controller and odometer for education is presented. PID controller and odometer is applied for controlling mobile robot position. Two-dimensional position vector in cartesian coordinate system have been inserted to robot controller as an initial and final position. Mobile robot has been made based on differential drive and sensor magnetic rotary encoder which measured robot position from a number of wheel rotation. Odometry methode use data from actuator movements for predicting change of position over time. The mobile robot is examined to get final position with three different heading angle 30°, 45° and 60° by applying various value of KP, KD and KI constant.

An innovations approach to decoupling of multibody dynamics and control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, G.

1989-01-01

The problem of hinged multibody dynamics is solved using an extension of the innovations approach of linear filtering and prediction theory to the problem of mechanical system modeling and control. This approach has been used quite effectively to diagonalize the equations for filtering and prediction for linear state space systems. It has similar advantages in the study of dynamics and control of multibody systems. The innovations approach advanced here consists of expressing the equations of motion in terms of two closely related processes: (1) the innovations process e, a sequence of moments, obtained from the applied moments T by means of a spatially recursive Kalman filter that goes from the tip of the manipulator to its base; (2) a residual process, a sequence of velocities, obtained from the joint-angle velocities by means of an outward smoothing operations. The innovations e and the applied moments T are related by means of the relationships e = (I - L)T and T = (I + K)e. The operation (I - L) is a causal lower triangular matrix which is generated by a spatially recursive Kalman filter and the corresponding discrete-step Riccati equation. Hence, the innovations and the applied moments can be obtained from each other by means of a causal operation which is itself casually invertible.

Mine planning and emission control strategies using geostatistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martino, F.; Kim, Y.C.

1983-03-01

This paper reviews the past four years' research efforts performed jointly by the University of Arizona and the Homer City Owners in which geostatistics were applied to solve various problems associated with coal characterization, mine planning, and development of emission control strategies. Because geostatistics is the only technique which can quantify the degree of confidence associated with a given estimate (or prediction), it played an important role throughout the research efforts. Through geostatistics, it was learned that there is an urgent need for closely spaced sample information, if short-term coal quality predictions are to be made for mine planning purposes.

A Discrete-Time Average Model Based Predictive Control for Quasi-Z-Source Inverter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Yushan; Abu-Rub, Haitham; Xue, Yaosuo

A discrete-time average model-based predictive control (DTA-MPC) is proposed for a quasi-Z-source inverter (qZSI). As a single-stage inverter topology, the qZSI regulates the dc-link voltage and the ac output voltage through the shoot-through (ST) duty cycle and the modulation index. Several feedback strategies have been dedicated to produce these two control variables, among which the most popular are the proportional–integral (PI)-based control and the conventional model-predictive control (MPC). However, in the former, there are tradeoffs between fast response and stability; the latter is robust, but at the cost of high calculation burden and variable switching frequency. Moreover, they require anmore » elaborated design or fine tuning of controller parameters. The proposed DTA-MPC predicts future behaviors of the ST duty cycle and modulation signals, based on the established discrete-time average model of the quasi-Z-source (qZS) inductor current, the qZS capacitor voltage, and load currents. The prediction actions are applied to the qZSI modulator in the next sampling instant, without the need of other controller parameters’ design. A constant switching frequency and significantly reduced computations are achieved with high performance. Transient responses and steady-state accuracy of the qZSI system under the proposed DTA-MPC are investigated and compared with the PI-based control and the conventional MPC. Simulation and experimental results verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach for the qZSI.« less

A Discrete-Time Average Model Based Predictive Control for Quasi-Z-Source Inverter

DOE PAGES

Liu, Yushan; Abu-Rub, Haitham; Xue, Yaosuo; ...

2017-12-25

A discrete-time average model-based predictive control (DTA-MPC) is proposed for a quasi-Z-source inverter (qZSI). As a single-stage inverter topology, the qZSI regulates the dc-link voltage and the ac output voltage through the shoot-through (ST) duty cycle and the modulation index. Several feedback strategies have been dedicated to produce these two control variables, among which the most popular are the proportional–integral (PI)-based control and the conventional model-predictive control (MPC). However, in the former, there are tradeoffs between fast response and stability; the latter is robust, but at the cost of high calculation burden and variable switching frequency. Moreover, they require anmore » elaborated design or fine tuning of controller parameters. The proposed DTA-MPC predicts future behaviors of the ST duty cycle and modulation signals, based on the established discrete-time average model of the quasi-Z-source (qZS) inductor current, the qZS capacitor voltage, and load currents. The prediction actions are applied to the qZSI modulator in the next sampling instant, without the need of other controller parameters’ design. A constant switching frequency and significantly reduced computations are achieved with high performance. Transient responses and steady-state accuracy of the qZSI system under the proposed DTA-MPC are investigated and compared with the PI-based control and the conventional MPC. Simulation and experimental results verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach for the qZSI.« less

Model Predictive Optimal Control of a Time-Delay Distributed-Parameter Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan

2006-01-01

This paper presents an optimal control method for a class of distributed-parameter systems governed by first order, quasilinear hyperbolic partial differential equations that arise in many physical systems. Such systems are characterized by time delays since information is transported from one state to another by wave propagation. A general closed-loop hyperbolic transport model is controlled by a boundary control embedded in a periodic boundary condition. The boundary control is subject to a nonlinear differential equation constraint that models actuator dynamics of the system. The hyperbolic equation is thus coupled with the ordinary differential equation via the boundary condition. Optimality of this coupled system is investigated using variational principles to seek an adjoint formulation of the optimal control problem. The results are then applied to implement a model predictive control design for a wind tunnel to eliminate a transport delay effect that causes a poor Mach number regulation.

The fatigue life prediction of aluminium alloy using genetic algorithm and neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susmikanti, Mike

2013-09-01

The behavior of the fatigue life of the industrial materials is very important. In many cases, the material with experiencing fatigue life cannot be avoided, however, there are many ways to control their behavior. Many investigations of the fatigue life phenomena of alloys have been done, but it is high cost and times consuming computation. This paper report the modeling and simulation approaches to predict the fatigue life behavior of Aluminum Alloys and resolves some problems of computation. First, the simulation using genetic algorithm was utilized to optimize the load to obtain the stress values. These results can be used to provide N-cycle fatigue life of the material. Furthermore, the experimental data was applied as input data in the neural network learning, while the samples data were applied for testing of the training data. Finally, the multilayer perceptron algorithm is applied to predict whether the given data sets in accordance with the fatigue life of the alloy. To achieve rapid convergence, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was also employed. The simulations results shows that the fatigue behaviors of aluminum under pressure can be predicted. In addition, implementation of neural networks successfully identified a model for material fatigue life.

Model Predictive Control of the Current Profile and the Internal Energy of DIII-D Plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauret, M.; Wehner, W.; Schuster, E.

2015-11-01

For efficient and stable operation of tokamak plasmas it is important that the current density profile and the internal energy are jointly controlled by using the available heating and current-drive (H&CD) sources. The proposed approach is a version of nonlinear model predictive control in which the input set is restricted in size by the possible combinations of the H&CD on/off states. The controller uses real-time predictions over a receding-time horizon of both the current density profile (nonlinear partial differential equation) and the internal energy (nonlinear ordinary differential equation) evolutions. At every time instant the effect of every possible combination of H&CD sources on the current profile and internal energy is evaluated over the chosen time horizon. The combination that leads to the best result, which is assessed by a user-defined cost function, is then applied up until the next time instant. Simulations results based on a control-oriented transport code illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control method. Supported by the US DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698 & DE-SC0010661.

Applying Social Psychological Models to Predicting HIV-Related Sexual Risk Behaviors Among African Americans

PubMed Central

Cochran, Susan D.; Mays, Vickie M.

2011-01-01

Existing models of attitude-behavior relationships, including the Health Belief Model, the Theory of Reasoned Action, and the Self-Efficacy Theory, are increasingly being used by psychologists to predict human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related risk behaviors. The authors briefly highlight some of the difficulties that might arise in applying these models to predicting the risk behaviors of African Americans. These social psychological models tend to emphasize the importance of individualistic, direct control of behavioral choices and deemphasize factors, such as racism and poverty, particularly relevant to that segment of the African American population most at risk for HIV infection. Applications of these models without taking into account the unique issues associated with behavioral choices within the African American community may fail to capture the relevant determinants of risk behaviors. PMID:23529205

The Prediction of the Gas Utilization Ratio Based on TS Fuzzy Neural Network and Particle Swarm Optimization

PubMed Central

Jiang, Haihe; Yin, Yixin; Xiao, Wendong; Zhao, Baoyong

2018-01-01

Gas utilization ratio (GUR) is an important indicator that is used to evaluate the energy consumption of blast furnaces (BFs). Currently, the existing methods cannot predict the GUR accurately. In this paper, we present a novel data-driven model for predicting the GUR. The proposed approach utilized both the TS fuzzy neural network (TS-FNN) and the particle swarm algorithm (PSO) to predict the GUR. The particle swarm algorithm (PSO) is applied to optimize the parameters of the TS-FNN in order to decrease the error caused by the inaccurate initial parameter. This paper also applied the box graph (Box-plot) method to eliminate the abnormal value of the raw data during the data preprocessing. This method can deal with the data which does not obey the normal distribution which is caused by the complex industrial environments. The prediction results demonstrate that the optimization model based on PSO and the TS-FNN approach achieves higher prediction accuracy compared with the TS-FNN model and SVM model and the proposed approach can accurately predict the GUR of the blast furnace, providing an effective way for the on-line blast furnace distribution control. PMID:29461469

The Prediction of the Gas Utilization Ratio based on TS Fuzzy Neural Network and Particle Swarm Optimization.

PubMed

Zhang, Sen; Jiang, Haihe; Yin, Yixin; Xiao, Wendong; Zhao, Baoyong

2018-02-20

Gas utilization ratio (GUR) is an important indicator that is used to evaluate the energy consumption of blast furnaces (BFs). Currently, the existing methods cannot predict the GUR accurately. In this paper, we present a novel data-driven model for predicting the GUR. The proposed approach utilized both the TS fuzzy neural network (TS-FNN) and the particle swarm algorithm (PSO) to predict the GUR. The particle swarm algorithm (PSO) is applied to optimize the parameters of the TS-FNN in order to decrease the error caused by the inaccurate initial parameter. This paper also applied the box graph (Box-plot) method to eliminate the abnormal value of the raw data during the data preprocessing. This method can deal with the data which does not obey the normal distribution which is caused by the complex industrial environments. The prediction results demonstrate that the optimization model based on PSO and the TS-FNN approach achieves higher prediction accuracy compared with the TS-FNN model and SVM model and the proposed approach can accurately predict the GUR of the blast furnace, providing an effective way for the on-line blast furnace distribution control.

Effects of external loads on balance control during upright stance: experimental results and model-based predictions.

PubMed

Qu, Xingda; Nussbaum, Maury A

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify the effects of external loads on balance control during upright stance, and to examine the ability of a new balance control model to predict these effects. External loads were applied to 12 young, healthy participants, and effects on balance control were characterized by center-of-pressure (COP) based measures. Several loading conditions were studied, involving combinations of load mass (10% and 20% of individual body mass) and height (at or 15% of stature above the whole-body COM). A balance control model based on an optimal control strategy was used to predict COP time series. It was assumed that a given individual would adopt the same neural optimal control mechanisms, identified in a no-load condition, under diverse external loading conditions. With the application of external loads, COP mean velocity in the anterior-posterior direction and RMS distance in the medial-lateral direction increased 8.1% and 10.4%, respectively. Predicted COP mean velocity and RMS distance in the anterior-posterior direction also increased with external loading, by 11.1% and 2.9%, respectively. Both experimental COP data and model-based predictions provided the same general conclusion, that application of larger external loads and loads more superior to the whole body center of mass lead to less effective postural control and perhaps a greater risk of loss of balance or falls. Thus, it can be concluded that the assumption about consistency in control mechanisms was partially supported, and it is the mechanical changes induced by external loads that primarily affect balance control.

Adaptive control of bivalirudin in the cardiac intensive care unit.

PubMed

Zhao, Qi; Edrich, Thomas; Paschalidis, Ioannis Ch

2015-02-01

Bivalirudin is a direct thrombin inhibitor used in the cardiac intensive care unit when heparin is contraindicated due to heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. Since it is not a commonly used drug, clinical experience with its dosing is sparse. In earlier work [1], we developed a dynamic system model that accurately predicts the effect of bivalirudin given dosage over time and patient physiological characteristics. This paper develops adaptive dosage controllers that regulate its effect to desired levels. To that end, and in the case that bivalirudin model parameters are available, we develop a Model Reference Control law. In the case that model parameters are unknown, an indirect Model Reference Adaptive Control scheme is applied to estimate model parameters first and then adapt the controller. Alternatively, direct Model Reference Adaptive Control is applied to adapt the controller directly without estimating model parameters first. Our algorithms are validated using actual patient data from a large hospital in the Boston area.

An Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior to Sorority Alcohol Consumption

PubMed Central

Huchting, Karen; Lac, Andrew; LaBrie, Joseph W.

2008-01-01

Greek-affiliated college students have been found to drink more heavily and frequently than other students. With female student drinking on the rise over the past decade, sorority women may be at particular risk for heavy consumption patterns. The current study is the first to apply the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to examine drinking patterns among a sorority-only sample. Two-hundred and forty-seven sorority members completed questionnaires measuring TPB variables of attitudes, norms, perceived behavioral control, and intentions, with drinking behaviors measured one month later. Latent structural equation modeling examined the pathways of the TPB model. Intentions to drink mediated the relationship between attitudes and norms on drinking behavior. Subjective norms predicted intentions to drink more than attitudes or perceived behavioral control. Perceived behavioral control did not predict intentions but did predict drinking behaviors. Interpretation and suggestions from these findings are discussed. PMID:18055130

Strategies for control of sudden oak death in Humboldt County-informed guidance based on a parameterized epidemiological model

Treesearch

João A. N. Filipe; Richard C. Cobb; David M. Rizzo; Ross K. Meentemeyer; Christopher A. Gilligan

2010-01-01

Landscape- to regional-scale models of plant epidemics are direly needed to predict largescale impacts of disease and assess practicable options for control. While landscape heterogeneity is recognized as a major driver of disease dynamics, epidemiological models are rarely applied to realistic landscape conditions due to computational and data limitations. Here we...

A model predictive speed tracking control approach for autonomous ground vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Min; Chen, Huiyan; Xiong, Guangming

2017-03-01

This paper presents a novel speed tracking control approach based on a model predictive control (MPC) framework for autonomous ground vehicles. A switching algorithm without calibration is proposed to determine the drive or brake control. Combined with a simple inverse longitudinal vehicle model and adaptive regulation of MPC, this algorithm can make use of the engine brake torque for various driving conditions and avoid high frequency oscillations automatically. A simplified quadratic program (QP) solving algorithm is used to reduce the computational time, and the approach has been applied in a 16-bit microcontroller. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated via simulations and vehicle tests, which were carried out in a range of speed-profile tracking tasks. With a well-designed system structure, high-precision speed control is achieved. The system can robustly model uncertainty and external disturbances, and yields a faster response with less overshoot than a PI controller.

Nonlinear engine model for idle speed control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Livshiz, M.; Sanvido, D.J.; Stiles, S.D.

1994-12-31

This paper describes a nonlinear model of an engine used for the design of idle speed control and prediction in a broad range of idle speeds and operational conditions. Idle speed control systems make use of both spark advance and the idle air actuator to control engine speed for improved response relative to variations in the target idle speed due to load disturbances. The control system at idle can be presented by a multiple input multiple output (MIMO) nonlinear model. Information of nonlinearities helps to improve performance of the system over the whole range of engine speeds. A proposed simplemore » nonlinear model of the engine at idle was applied for design of optimal controllers and predictors for improved steady state, load rejection and transition from and to idle. This paper describes vehicle results of engine speed prediction based on the described model.« less

Lateral stability and control derivatives extracted from space shuttle Challenger flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schiess, James R.

1988-01-01

Flight data taken from six flights of the Space Transportation System shuttle Challenger (STS-6, 7, 8, 11, 13 and 17) during atmospheric entry are analyzed to determine the shuttle lateral aerodynamic characteristics. Maximum likelihood estimation is applied to data derived from accelerometer and rate gyro measurements and trajectory, meteorological and control surface data to estimate lateral-directional stability and control derivatives. The vehicle stability and control surface effectiveness are compared across the flights and to preflight predicted values.

Benzalkonium chloride neutralizes the irritant effect of sodium dodecyl sulfate.

PubMed

McFadden, J P; Holloway, D B; Whittle, E G; Basketter, D A

2000-11-01

When benzalkonium chloride (BKC), a cationic surfactant, is added to sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS), an anionic surfactant, and used in patch testing, on the basis of their known physicochemical interaction, it is possible to predict that there will be a tendency towards a reduction in the expected irritant response when compared to SDS alone. The aim of this study was to investigate whether BKC could reduce the irritant response to SDS when applied after the SDS exposure. 54 non-atopic adult volunteers were recruited for the study. 20% SDS was applied for 2 h under occlusion. 1% BKC was then applied to the same site. Various controls, including SDS application followed by water for 2 h, were included. The irritant reaction was assessed at 24 h and 48 h. 40 of the 54 subjects had some reaction when SDS was applied for 2 h followed by either benzalkonium chloride or water control under occlusion. In comparison to water control, where BKC was applied after SDS, 20 of the 40 responders had a weaker reaction but only 4 had a stronger response. This study shows that BKC applied to skin exposed to SDS attenuates the resulting irritant reaction.

The Use of an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Prediction of the Incidence of Dysentery in Jiangsu, China.

PubMed

Wang, Kewei; Song, Wentao; Li, Jinping; Lu, Wu; Yu, Jiangang; Han, Xiaofeng

2016-05-01

The aim of this study is to forecast the incidence of bacillary dysentery with a prediction model. We collected the annual and monthly laboratory data of confirmed cases from January 2004 to December 2014. In this study, we applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast bacillary dysentery incidence in Jiangsu, China. The ARIMA (1, 1, 1) × (1, 1, 2)12 model fitted exactly with the number of cases during January 2004 to December 2014. The fitted model was then used to predict bacillary dysentery incidence during the period January to August 2015, and the number of cases fell within the model's CI for the predicted number of cases during January-August 2015. This study shows that the ARIMA model fits the fluctuations in bacillary dysentery frequency, and it can be used for future forecasting when applied to bacillary dysentery prevention and control. © 2016 APJPH.

Prediction of circulation control performance characteristics for Super STOL and STOL applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naqvi, Messam Abbas

The rapid air travel growth during the last three decades, has resulted in runway congestion at major airports. The current airports infrastructure will not be able to support the rapid growth trends expected in the next decade. Changes or upgrades in infrastructure alone would not be able to satisfy the growth requirements, and new airplane concepts such as the NASA proposed Super Short Takeoff and Landing and Extremely Short Takeoff & Landing (ESTOL) are being vigorously pursued. Aircraft noise pollution during Takeoff & Landing is another serious concern and efforts are aimed to reduce the airframe noise produced by Conventional High Lift Devices during Takeoff & Landing. Circulation control technology has the prospect of being a good alternative to resolve both the aforesaid issues. Circulation control airfoils are not only capable of producing very high values of lift (Cl values in excess of 8.0) at zero degree angle of attack, but also eliminate the noise generated by the conventional high lift devices and their associated weight penalty as well as their complex operation and storage. This will ensure not only satisfying the small takeoff and landing distances, but minimal acoustic signature in accordance with FAA requirements. The Circulation Control relies on the tendency of an emanating wall jet to independently control the circulation and lift on an airfoil. Unlike, conventional airfoil where rear stagnation point is located at the sharp trailing edge, circulation control airfoils possess a round trailing edge, therefore the rear stagnation point is free to move. The location of rear stagnation point is controlled by the blown jet momentum. This provides a secondary control in the form of jet momentum with which the lift generated can be controlled rather the only available control of incidence (angle of attack) in case of conventional airfoils. The use of Circulation control despite its promising potential has been limited only to research applications due to the lack of a simple prediction capability. This research effort was focused on the creation of a rapid prediction capability of Circulation Control Aerodynamic Characteristics which could help designers with rapid performance estimates for design space exploration. A morphological matrix was created with the available set of options which could be chosen to create this prediction capability starting with purely analytical physics based modeling to high fidelity CFD codes. Based on the available constraints, and desired accuracy meta-models have been created around the two dimensional circulation control performance results computed using Navier Stokes Equations (Computational Fluid Dynamics). DSS2, a two dimensional RANS code written by Professor Lakshmi Sankar was utilized for circulation control airfoil characteristics. The CFD code was first applied to the NCCR 1510-7607N airfoil to validate the model with available experimental results. It was then applied to compute the results of a fractional factorial design of experiments array. Metamodels were formulated using the neural networks to the results obtained from the Design of Experiments. Additional validation runs were performed to validate the model predictions. Metamodels are not only capable of rapid performance prediction, but also help generate the relation trends of response matrices with control variables and capture the complex interactions between control variables. Quantitative as well as qualitative assessments of results were performed by computation of aerodynamic forces & moments and flow field visualizations. Wing characteristics in three dimensions were obtained by integration over the whole wing using Prandtl's Wing Theory. The baseline Super STOL configuration [3] was then analyzed with the application of circulation control technology. The desired values of lift and drag to achieve the target values of Takeoff & Landing performance were compared with the optimal configurations obtained by the model. The same optimal configurations were then subjected to Super STOL cruise conditions to perform a trade off analysis between Takeoff and Cruise Performance. Supercritical airfoils modified for circulation control were also thoroughly analyzed for Takeoff and Cruise performance and may constitute a viable option for Super STOL & STOL Designs. The prediction capability produced by this research effort can be integrated with the current conceptual aircraft modeling & simulation framework. The prediction tool is applicable within the selected ranges of each variable, but methodology and formulation scheme adopted can be applied to any other design space exploration.

Multi-step prediction for influenza outbreak by an adjusted long short-term memory.

PubMed

Zhang, J; Nawata, K

2018-05-01

Influenza results in approximately 3-5 million annual cases of severe illness and 250 000-500 000 deaths. We urgently need an accurate multi-step-ahead time-series forecasting model to help hospitals to perform dynamical assignments of beds to influenza patients for the annually varied influenza season, and aid pharmaceutical companies to formulate a flexible plan of manufacturing vaccine for the yearly different influenza vaccine. In this study, we utilised four different multi-step prediction algorithms in the long short-term memory (LSTM). The result showed that implementing multiple single-output prediction in a six-layer LSTM structure achieved the best accuracy. The mean absolute percentage errors from two- to 13-step-ahead prediction for the US influenza-like illness rates were all <15%, averagely 12.930%. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that LSTM has been applied and refined to perform multi-step-ahead prediction for influenza outbreaks. Hopefully, this modelling methodology can be applied in other countries and therefore help prevent and control influenza worldwide.

Configural approaches to temperament assessment: implications for predicting risk of unintentional injury in children.

PubMed

Berry, Jack W; Schwebel, David C

2009-10-01

This study used two configural approaches to understand how temperament factors (surgency/extraversion, negative affect, and effortful control) might predict child injury risk. In the first approach, clustering procedures were applied to trait dimensions to identify discrete personality prototypes. In the second approach, two- and three-way trait interactions were considered dimensionally in regression models predicting injury outcomes. Injury risk was assessed through four measures: lifetime prevalence of injuries requiring professional medical attention, scores on the Injury Behavior Checklist, and frequency and severity of injuries reported in a 2-week injury diary. In the prototype analysis, three temperament clusters were obtained, which resembled resilient, overcontrolled, and undercontrolled types found in previous research. Undercontrolled children had greater risk of injury than children in the other groups. In the dimensional interaction analyses, an interaction between surgency/extraversion and negative affect tended to predict injury, especially when children lacked capacity for effortful control.

Prediction of clinical depression scores and detection of changes in whole-brain using resting-state functional MRI data with partial least squares regression

PubMed Central

Shimizu, Yu; Yoshimoto, Junichiro; Takamura, Masahiro; Okada, Go; Okamoto, Yasumasa; Yamawaki, Shigeto; Doya, Kenji

2017-01-01

In diagnostic applications of statistical machine learning methods to brain imaging data, common problems include data high-dimensionality and co-linearity, which often cause over-fitting and instability. To overcome these problems, we applied partial least squares (PLS) regression to resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) data, creating a low-dimensional representation that relates symptoms to brain activity and that predicts clinical measures. Our experimental results, based upon data from clinically depressed patients and healthy controls, demonstrated that PLS and its kernel variants provided significantly better prediction of clinical measures than ordinary linear regression. Subsequent classification using predicted clinical scores distinguished depressed patients from healthy controls with 80% accuracy. Moreover, loading vectors for latent variables enabled us to identify brain regions relevant to depression, including the default mode network, the right superior frontal gyrus, and the superior motor area. PMID:28700672

Testing the predictive power of the transtheoretical model of behavior change applied to dietary fat intake

PubMed Central

Wright, Julie A.; Velicer, Wayne F.; Prochaska, James O.

2009-01-01

This study evaluated how well predictions from the transtheoretical model (TTM) generalized from smoking to diet. Longitudinal data were used from a randomized control trial on reducing dietary fat consumption in adults (n =1207) recruited from primary care practices. Predictive power was evaluated by making a priori predictions of the magnitude of change expected in the TTM constructs of temptation, pros and cons, and 10 processes of change when an individual transitions between the stages of change. Generalizability was evaluated by testing predictions based on smoking data. Three sets of predictions were made for each stage: Precontemplation (PC), Contemplation (C) and Preparation (PR) based on stage transition categories of no progress, progress and regression determined by stage at baseline versus stage at the 12-month follow-up. Univariate analysis of variance between stage transition groups was used to calculate the effect size [omega squared (ω2)]. For diet predictions based on diet data, there was a high degree of confirmation: 92%, 95% and 92% for PC, C and PR, respectively. For diet predictions based on smoking data, 77%, 79% and 85% were confirmed, respectively, suggesting a moderate degree of generalizability. This study revised effect size estimates for future theory testing on the TTM applied to dietary fat. PMID:18400785

NAPR: a Cloud-Based Framework for Neuroanatomical Age Prediction.

PubMed

Pardoe, Heath R; Kuzniecky, Ruben

2018-01-01

The availability of cloud computing services has enabled the widespread adoption of the "software as a service" (SaaS) approach for software distribution, which utilizes network-based access to applications running on centralized servers. In this paper we apply the SaaS approach to neuroimaging-based age prediction. Our system, named "NAPR" (Neuroanatomical Age Prediction using R), provides access to predictive modeling software running on a persistent cloud-based Amazon Web Services (AWS) compute instance. The NAPR framework allows external users to estimate the age of individual subjects using cortical thickness maps derived from their own locally processed T1-weighted whole brain MRI scans. As a demonstration of the NAPR approach, we have developed two age prediction models that were trained using healthy control data from the ABIDE, CoRR, DLBS and NKI Rockland neuroimaging datasets (total N = 2367, age range 6-89 years). The provided age prediction models were trained using (i) relevance vector machines and (ii) Gaussian processes machine learning methods applied to cortical thickness surfaces obtained using Freesurfer v5.3. We believe that this transparent approach to out-of-sample evaluation and comparison of neuroimaging age prediction models will facilitate the development of improved age prediction models and allow for robust evaluation of the clinical utility of these methods.

Prediction of noise constrained optimum takeoff procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Padula, S. L.

1980-01-01

An optimization method is used to predict safe, maximum-performance takeoff procedures which satisfy noise constraints at multiple observer locations. The takeoff flight is represented by two-degree-of-freedom dynamical equations with aircraft angle-of-attack and engine power setting as control functions. The engine thrust, mass flow and noise source parameters are assumed to be given functions of the engine power setting and aircraft Mach number. Effective Perceived Noise Levels at the observers are treated as functionals of the control functions. The method is demonstrated by applying it to an Advanced Supersonic Transport aircraft design. The results indicate that automated takeoff procedures (continuously varying controls) can be used to significantly reduce community and certification noise without jeopardizing safety or degrading performance.

IMPROVE AND APPLY CHEMICAL MECHANISMS FOR DEVELOPING OZONE CONTROL STRATEGIES

EPA Science Inventory

Air quality models that realistically describe the formation of ozone, air toxics, and other pollutants are needed by EPA and state agencies to predict current and future concentrations of these pollutants and develop ways to decrease their concentrations below harmful levels. ...

Control of the NASA Langley 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel with the Self-Organizing Feature Map

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motter, Mark A.

1998-01-01

A predictive, multiple model control strategy is developed based on an ensemble of local linear models of the nonlinear system dynamics for a transonic wind tunnel. The local linear models are estimated directly from the weights of a Self Organizing Feature Map (SOFM). Local linear modeling of nonlinear autonomous systems with the SOFM is extended to a control framework where the modeled system is nonautonomous, driven by an exogenous input. This extension to a control framework is based on the consideration of a finite number of subregions in the control space. Multiple self organizing feature maps collectively model the global response of the wind tunnel to a finite set of representative prototype controls. These prototype controls partition the control space and incorporate experimental knowledge gained from decades of operation. Each SOFM models the combination of the tunnel with one of the representative controls, over the entire range of operation. The SOFM based linear models are used to predict the tunnel response to a larger family of control sequences which are clustered on the representative prototypes. The control sequence which corresponds to the prediction that best satisfies the requirements on the system output is applied as the external driving signal. Each SOFM provides a codebook representation of the tunnel dynamics corresponding to a prototype control. Different dynamic regimes are organized into topological neighborhoods where the adjacent entries in the codebook represent the minimization of a similarity metric which is the essence of the self organizing feature of the map. Thus, the SOFM is additionally employed to identify the local dynamical regime, and consequently implements a switching scheme than selects the best available model for the applied control. Experimental results of controlling the wind tunnel, with the proposed method, during operational runs where strict research requirements on the control of the Mach number were met, are presented. Comparison to similar runs under the same conditions with the tunnel controlled by either the existing controller or an expert operator indicate the superiority of the method.

Model predictive control of an air suspension system with damping multi-mode switching damper based on hybrid model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiaoqiang; Yuan, Chaochun; Cai, Yingfeng; Wang, Shaohua; Chen, Long

2017-09-01

This paper presents the hybrid modeling and the model predictive control of an air suspension system with damping multi-mode switching damper. Unlike traditional damper with continuously adjustable damping, in this study, a new damper with four discrete damping modes is applied to vehicle semi-active air suspension. The new damper can achieve different damping modes by just controlling the on-off statuses of two solenoid valves, which makes its damping adjustment more efficient and more reliable. However, since the damping mode switching induces different modes of operation, the air suspension system with the new damper poses challenging hybrid control problem. To model both the continuous/discrete dynamics and the switching between different damping modes, the framework of mixed logical dynamical (MLD) systems is used to establish the system hybrid model. Based on the resulting hybrid dynamical model, the system control problem is recast as a model predictive control (MPC) problem, which allows us to optimize the switching sequences of the damping modes by taking into account the suspension performance requirements. Numerical simulations results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed control method finally.

Autonomous Motivation Predicts 7-Day Physical Activity in Hong Kong Students.

PubMed

Ha, Amy S; Ng, Johan Y Y

2015-07-01

Autonomous motivation predicts positive health behaviors such as physical activity. However, few studies have examined the relation between motivational regulations and objectively measured physical activity and sedentary behaviors. Thus, we investigated whether different motivational regulations (autonomous motivation, controlled motivation, and amotivation) predicted 7-day physical activity, sedentary behaviors, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of students. A total of 115 students (mean age = 11.6 years, 55.7% female) self-reported their motivational regulations and health-related quality of life. Physical activity and sedentary behaviors were measured using accelerometers for seven days. Using multilevel modeling, we found that autonomous motivation predicted higher levels of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, less sedentary behaviors, and better HRQoL. Controlled motivation and amotivation each only negatively predicted one facet of HRQoL. Results suggested that autonomous motivation could be an important predictor of physical activity behaviors in Hong Kong students. Promotion of this form of motivational regulation may also increase HRQoL. © 2015 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Stress and anger as contextual factors and preexisting cognitive schemas: predicting parental child maltreatment risk.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Christina M; Richardson, Michael J

2007-11-01

Progress in the child maltreatment field depends on refinements in leading models. This study examines aspects of social information processing theory (Milner, 2000) in predicting physical maltreatment risk in a community sample. Consistent with this theory, selected preexisting schema (external locus-of-control orientation, inappropriate developmental expectations, low empathic perspective-taking ability, and low perceived attachment relationship to child) were expected to predict child abuse risk beyond contextual factors (parenting stress and anger expression). Based on 115 parents' self-report, results from this study support cognitive factors that predict abuse risk (with locus of control, perceived attachment, or empathy predicting different abuse risk measures, but not developmental expectations), although the broad contextual factors involving negative affectivity and stress were consistent predictors across abuse risk markers. Findings are discussed with regard to implications for future model evaluations, with indications the model may apply to other forms of maltreatment, such as psychological maltreatment or neglect.

High capacity reversible watermarking for audio by histogram shifting and predicted error expansion.

PubMed

Wang, Fei; Xie, Zhaoxin; Chen, Zuo

2014-01-01

Being reversible, the watermarking information embedded in audio signals can be extracted while the original audio data can achieve lossless recovery. Currently, the few reversible audio watermarking algorithms are confronted with following problems: relatively low SNR (signal-to-noise) of embedded audio; a large amount of auxiliary embedded location information; and the absence of accurate capacity control capability. In this paper, we present a novel reversible audio watermarking scheme based on improved prediction error expansion and histogram shifting. First, we use differential evolution algorithm to optimize prediction coefficients and then apply prediction error expansion to output stego data. Second, in order to reduce location map bits length, we introduced histogram shifting scheme. Meanwhile, the prediction error modification threshold according to a given embedding capacity can be computed by our proposed scheme. Experiments show that this algorithm improves the SNR of embedded audio signals and embedding capacity, drastically reduces location map bits length, and enhances capacity control capability.

TankSIM: A Cryogenic Tank Performance Prediction Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolshinskiy, L. G.; Hedayat, A.; Hastings, L. J.; Moder, J. P.; Schnell, A. R.; Sutherlin, S. G.

2015-01-01

Accurate prediction of the thermodynamic state of the cryogenic propellants in launch vehicle tanks is necessary for mission planning and successful execution. Cryogenic propellant storage and transfer in space environments requires that tank pressure be controlled. The pressure rise rate is determined by the complex interaction of external heat leak, fluid temperature stratification, and interfacial heat and mass transfer. If the required storage duration of a space mission is longer than the period in which the tank pressure reaches its allowable maximum, an appropriate pressure control method must be applied. Therefore, predictions of the pressurization rate and performance of pressure control techniques in cryogenic tanks are required for development of cryogenic fluid long-duration storage technology and planning of future space exploration missions. This paper describes an analytical tool, Tank System Integrated Model (TankSIM), which can be used for modeling pressure control and predicting the behavior of cryogenic propellant for long-term storage for future space missions. It is written in the FORTRAN 90 language and can be compiled with any Visual FORTRAN compiler. A thermodynamic vent system (TVS) is used to achieve tank pressure control. Utilizing TankSIM, the following processes can be modeled: tank self-pressurization, boiloff, ullage venting, and mixing. Details of the TankSIM program and comparisons of its predictions with test data for liquid hydrogen and liquid methane will be presented in the final paper.

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report Fourth Quarter FY-04

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William; Wheeler, Mark; Lambert, Winifred; Case, Jonathan; Short, David

2004-01-01

This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (A MU) activities for the fourth quarter of Fiscal Year 2004 (July -Sept 2004). Tasks covered are: (1) Objective Lightning Probability Forecast: Phase I, (2) Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid, (3) Hail Index, (4) Shuttle Ascent Camera Cloud Obstruction Forecast, (5) Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Optimization and Training Extension and (5) User Control Interface for ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS) Data Ingest.

Effect on the partial least-squares prediction of yarn properties combining raman and infrared measurements and applying wavelength selection.

PubMed

de Groot, P J; Swierenga, H; Postma, G J; Melssen, W J; Buydens, L M C

2003-06-01

The combination of Raman and infrared spectroscopy on the one hand and wavelength selection on the other hand is used to improve the partial least-squares (PLS) prediction of seven selected yarn properties. These properties are important for on-line quality control during production. From 71 yarn samples, the Raman and infrared spectra are measured and reference methods are used to determine the selected properties. Making separate PLS models for all yarn properties using the Raman and infrared spectra, prior to wavelength selection, reveals that Raman spectroscopy outperforms infrared spectroscopy. If wavelength selection is applied, the PLS prediction error decreases and the correlation coefficient increases for all properties. However, a substantial wavelength selection effect is present for the infrared spectra compared to the Raman spectra. For the infrared spectra, wavelength selection results in PLS prediction errors comparable with the prediction performance of the Raman spectra prior to wavelength selection. Concatenating the Raman and infrared spectra does not enhance the PLS prediction performance, not even after wavelength selection. It is concluded that an infrared spectrometer, combined with a wavelength selection procedure, can be used if no (suitable) Raman instrument is available.

A Novel Calibration-Minimum Method for Prediction of Mole Fraction in Non-Ideal Mixture.

PubMed

Shibayama, Shojiro; Kaneko, Hiromasa; Funatsu, Kimito

2017-04-01

This article proposes a novel concentration prediction model that requires little training data and is useful for rapid process understanding. Process analytical technology is currently popular, especially in the pharmaceutical industry, for enhancement of process understanding and process control. A calibration-free method, iterative optimization technology (IOT), was proposed to predict pure component concentrations, because calibration methods such as partial least squares, require a large number of training samples, leading to high costs. However, IOT cannot be applied to concentration prediction in non-ideal mixtures because its basic equation is derived from the Beer-Lambert law, which cannot be applied to non-ideal mixtures. We proposed a novel method that realizes prediction of pure component concentrations in mixtures from a small number of training samples, assuming that spectral changes arising from molecular interactions can be expressed as a function of concentration. The proposed method is named IOT with virtual molecular interaction spectra (IOT-VIS) because the method takes spectral change as a virtual spectrum x nonlin,i into account. It was confirmed through the two case studies that the predictive accuracy of IOT-VIS was the highest among existing IOT methods.

Discovering Pediatric Asthma Phenotypes on the Basis of Response to Controller Medication Using Machine Learning.

PubMed

Ross, Mindy K; Yoon, Jinsung; van der Schaar, Auke; van der Schaar, Mihaela

2018-01-01

Pediatric asthma has variable underlying inflammation and symptom control. Approaches to addressing this heterogeneity, such as clustering methods to find phenotypes and predict outcomes, have been investigated. However, clustering based on the relationship between treatment and clinical outcome has not been performed, and machine learning approaches for long-term outcome prediction in pediatric asthma have not been studied in depth. Our objectives were to use our novel machine learning algorithm, predictor pursuit (PP), to discover pediatric asthma phenotypes on the basis of asthma control in response to controller medications, to predict longitudinal asthma control among children with asthma, and to identify features associated with asthma control within each discovered pediatric phenotype. We applied PP to the Childhood Asthma Management Program study data (n = 1,019) to discover phenotypes on the basis of asthma control between assigned controller therapy groups (budesonide vs. nedocromil). We confirmed PP's ability to discover phenotypes using the Asthma Clinical Research Network/Childhood Asthma Research and Education network data. We next predicted children's asthma control over time and compared PP's performance with that of traditional prediction methods. Last, we identified clinical features most correlated with asthma control in the discovered phenotypes. Four phenotypes were discovered in both datasets: allergic not obese (A + /O - ), obese not allergic (A - /O + ), allergic and obese (A + /O + ), and not allergic not obese (A - /O - ). Of the children with well-controlled asthma in the Childhood Asthma Management Program dataset, we found more nonobese children treated with budesonide than with nedocromil (P = 0.015) and more obese children treated with nedocromil than with budesonide (P = 0.008). Within the obese group, more A + /O + children's asthma was well controlled with nedocromil than with budesonide (P = 0.022) or with placebo (P = 0.011). The PP algorithm performed significantly better (P < 0.001) than traditional machine learning algorithms for both short- and long-term asthma control prediction. Asthma control and bronchodilator response were the features most predictive of short-term asthma control, regardless of type of controller medication or phenotype. Bronchodilator response and serum eosinophils were the most predictive features of asthma control, regardless of type of controller medication or phenotype. Advanced statistical machine learning approaches can be powerful tools for discovery of phenotypes based on treatment response and can aid in asthma control prediction in complex medical conditions such as asthma.

Predictive control of a chaotic permanent magnet synchronous generator in a wind turbine system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manal, Messadi; Adel, Mellit; Karim, Kemih; Malek, Ghanes

2015-01-01

This paper investigates how to address the chaos problem in a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) in a wind turbine system. Predictive control approach is proposed to suppress chaotic behavior and make operating stable; the advantage of this method is that it can only be applied to one state of the wind turbine system. The use of the genetic algorithms to estimate the optimal parameter values of the wind turbine leads to maximization of the power generation. Moreover, some simulation results are included to visualize the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method. Project supported by the CMEP-TASSILI Project (Grant No. 14MDU920).

RANS Simulation of the Separated Flow over a Bump with Active Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iaccarino, Gianluca; Marongiu, Claudio; Catalano, Pietro; Amato, Marcello

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is to investigate the accuracy of Reynolds-Averaged Navier- Stokes (RANS) techniques in predicting the effect of steady and unsteady flow control devices. This is part of a larger effort in applying numerical simulation tools to investigate of the performance of synthetic jets in high Reynolds number turbulent flows. RANS techniques have been successful in predicting isolated synthetic jets as reported by Kral et al. Nevertheless, due to the complex, and inherently unsteady nature of the interaction between the synthetic jet and the external boundary layer flow, it is not clear whether RANS models can represent the turbulence statistics correctly.

Deep learning and model predictive control for self-tuning mode-locked lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baumeister, Thomas; Brunton, Steven L.; Nathan Kutz, J.

2018-03-01

Self-tuning optical systems are of growing importance in technological applications such as mode-locked fiber lasers. Such self-tuning paradigms require {\\em intelligent} algorithms capable of inferring approximate models of the underlying physics and discovering appropriate control laws in order to maintain robust performance for a given objective. In this work, we demonstrate the first integration of a {\\em deep learning} (DL) architecture with {\\em model predictive control} (MPC) in order to self-tune a mode-locked fiber laser. Not only can our DL-MPC algorithmic architecture approximate the unknown fiber birefringence, it also builds a dynamical model of the laser and appropriate control law for maintaining robust, high-energy pulses despite a stochastically drifting birefringence. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this method on a fiber laser which is mode-locked by nonlinear polarization rotation. The method advocated can be broadly applied to a variety of optical systems that require robust controllers.

A Comparison of Three Job Engagement Measures: Examining their Factorial and Criterion-Related Validity.

PubMed

Wefald, Andrew J; Mills, Maura J; Smith, Michael R; Downey, Ronald G

2012-03-01

Engagement is an emerging job attitude that purports to measure employees' psychological presence at and involvement in their work. This research compares three academic approaches to engagement, and makes recommendations regarding the most appropriate conceptualisation and measurement of the construct in future research. The current research also investigates whether any of these three approaches to engagement contribute unique variance to the prediction of turnover intentions above and beyond the predictive capacity of alternative constructs. An online survey was taken by 382 employees and managers from a mid-sized financial institution. Results failed to support either a multi- or unidimensional factor structure for the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale (UWES) engagement measure. For the Shirom-Melamed Vigor Measure (SMVM), a multi-dimensional structure was identified as a good fit, while a unidimensional structure fit poorly. The uni-factorial structure of Britt's engagement measure was confirmed. The Schaufeli measure of engagement was a strong predictor of work outcomes; however, when controlling for job satisfaction and affective commitment, that measure lost its ability to predict intentions to leave. Two components of the Shirom vigor measure held their predictive validity. Collectively, these findings suggest that the Shirom vigor measure may provide better insight into whether and how much a person is 'into' his or her job. The Schaufeli measure was a good predictor of important work outcomes, but when job satisfaction and affective commitment were controlled, it lost its predictive validity. We were not able to confirm the three-factor structure of the Schaufeli measure. Two components of the Shirom vigor measure predicted turnover intentions after controlling for job satisfaction and affective commitment, suggesting less overlap with those constructs than the Schaufeli measure of engagement. This research adds important information on the nature of engagement and is expected to contribute toward a better understanding of the construct itself, as well as its measurement. © 2011 The Authors. Applied Psychology: Health and Well-Being © 2011 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Structural Acoustic Prediction and Interior Noise Control Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathur, G. P.; Chin, C. L.; Simpson, M. A.; Lee, J. T.; Palumbo, Daniel L. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This report documents the results of Task 14, "Structural Acoustic Prediction and Interior Noise Control Technology". The task was to evaluate the performance of tuned foam elements (termed Smart Foam) both analytically and experimentally. Results taken from a three-dimensional finite element model of an active, tuned foam element are presented. Measurements of sound absorption and sound transmission loss were taken using the model. These results agree well with published data. Experimental performance data were taken in Boeing's Interior Noise Test Facility where 12 smart foam elements were applied to a 757 sidewall. Several configurations were tested. Noise reductions of 5-10 dB were achieved over the 200-800 Hz bandwidth of the controller. Accelerometers mounted on the panel provided a good reference for the controller. Configurations with far-field error microphones outperformed near-field cases.

System and Method for Providing Model-Based Alerting of Spatial Disorientation to a Pilot

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Steve (Inventor); Conner, Kevin J (Inventor); Mathan, Santosh (Inventor)

2015-01-01

A system and method monitor aircraft state parameters, for example, aircraft movement and flight parameters, applies those inputs to a spatial disorientation model, and makes a prediction of when pilot may become spatially disoriented. Once the system predicts a potentially disoriented pilot, the sensitivity for alerting the pilot to conditions exceeding a threshold can be increased and allow for an earlier alert to mitigate the possibility of an incorrect control input.

A new mathematical solution for predicting char activation reactions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rafsanjani, H.H.; Jamshidi, E.; Rostam-Abadi, M.

2002-01-01

The differential conservation equations that describe typical gas-solid reactions, such as activation of coal chars, yield a set of coupled second-order partial differential equations. The solution of these coupled equations by exact analytical methods is impossible. In addition, an approximate or exact solution only provides predictions for either reaction- or diffusion-controlling cases. A new mathematical solution, the quantize method (QM), was applied to predict the gasification rates of coal char when both chemical reaction and diffusion through the porous char are present. Carbon conversion rates predicted by the QM were in closer agreement with the experimental data than those predicted by the random pore model and the simple particle model. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A distributed predictive control approach for periodic flow-based networks: application to drinking water systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grosso, Juan M.; Ocampo-Martinez, Carlos; Puig, Vicenç

2017-10-01

This paper proposes a distributed model predictive control approach designed to work in a cooperative manner for controlling flow-based networks showing periodic behaviours. Under this distributed approach, local controllers cooperate in order to enhance the performance of the whole flow network avoiding the use of a coordination layer. Alternatively, controllers use both the monolithic model of the network and the given global cost function to optimise the control inputs of the local controllers but taking into account the effect of their decisions over the remainder subsystems conforming the entire network. In this sense, a global (all-to-all) communication strategy is considered. Although the Pareto optimality cannot be reached due to the existence of non-sparse coupling constraints, the asymptotic convergence to a Nash equilibrium is guaranteed. The resultant strategy is tested and its effectiveness is shown when applied to a large-scale complex flow-based network: the Barcelona drinking water supply system.

Research in navigation and optimization for space trajectories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pines, S.; Kelley, H. J.

1979-01-01

Topics covered include: (1) initial Cartesian coordinates for rapid precision orbit prediction; (2) accelerating convergence in optimization methods using search routines by applying curvilinear projection ideas; (3) perturbation-magnitude control for difference-quotient estimation of derivatives; and (4) determining the accelerometer bias for in-orbit shuttle trajectories.

Lateral stability and control derivatives extracted from five early flights of the space shuttle Columbia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schiess, J. R.

1986-01-01

Flight data taken from the first five flights (STS-2, 3, 4, 5 and 9) of the Space Transportation System Shuttle Columbia during entry are analyzed to determine the Shuttle lateral aerodynamic characteristics. Maximum likelihood estimation is applied to data derived from accelerometer and rate gyro measurements and trajectory, meteorological and control surface data to estimate lateral-directional stability and control derivatives. The estimated parameters are compared across the five flights and to preflight predicted values.

Control theory for scanning probe microscopy revisited.

PubMed

Stirling, Julian

2014-01-01

We derive a theoretical model for studying SPM feedback in the context of control theory. Previous models presented in the literature that apply standard models for proportional-integral-derivative controllers predict a highly unstable feedback environment. This model uses features specific to the SPM implementation of the proportional-integral controller to give realistic feedback behaviour. As such the stability of SPM feedback for a wide range of feedback gains can be understood. Further consideration of mechanical responses of the SPM system gives insight into the causes of exciting mechanical resonances of the scanner during feedback operation.

Adaptive Guidance and Control Algorithms applied to the X-38 Reentry Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graesslin, M.; Wallner, E.; Burkhardt, J.; Schoettle, U.; Well, K. H.

International Space Station's Crew Return/Rescue Vehicle (CRV) is planned to autonomously return the complete crew of 7 astronauts back to earth in case of an emergency. As prototype of such a vehicle, the X-38, is being developed and built by NASA with European participation. The X-38 is a lifting body with a hyper- sonic lift to drag ratio of about 0.9. In comparison to the Space Shuttle Orbiter, the X-38 has less aerodynamic manoeuvring capability and less actuators. Within the German technology programme TETRA (TEchnologies for future space TRAnsportation systems) contributing to the X-38 program, guidance and control algorithms have been developed and applied to the X-38 reentry mission. The adaptive guidance concept conceived combines an on-board closed-loop predictive guidance algorithm with flight load control that temporarily overrides the attitude commands of the predictive component if the corre- sponding load constraints are violated. The predictive guidance scheme combines an optimization step and a sequence of constraint restoration cycles. In order to satisfy on-board computation limitations the complete scheme is performed only during the exo-atmospheric flight coast phase. During the controlled atmospheric flight segment the task is reduced to a repeatedly solved targeting problem based on the initial optimal solution, thus omitting in-flight constraints. To keep the flight loads - especially the heat flux, which is in fact a major concern of the X-38 reentry flight - below their maximum admissible values, a flight path controller based on quadratic minimization techniques may override the predictive guidance command for a flight along the con- straint boundary. The attitude control algorithms developed are based on dynamic inversion. This methodology enables the designer to straightforwardly devise a controller structure from the system dynamics. The main ad- vantage of this approach with regard to reentry control design lies in the fact that inversion renders a scheduled controller. Throughout the reentry, varying sets of actuators are available for control. Depending on which set is available, different inversion schemes are applied. With at least three controls effectors, decoupled control of the attitude angles can be achieved via a successive inversion which exploits the time-scale separation inherent in the attitude dynamics. However, during a flight phase where control needs to be achieved with only two body flaps, internal dynamics must be taken into account. To this end, a redefinition of the controlled variables is carried out so that the internal dynamics are stabilized while satisfactory tracking performance is achieved. The objectives of the present paper are to discuss the guidance and control approach taken, and asses the per- formance of the concepts by numerical flight simulations. For this purpose results obtained by means of a nu- merical flight simulator (CREDITS), that accurately models the characteristics of the X-38 vehicle, are presented to demonstrate the performance and effectiveness of the guidance and control design. Sensitivities to non- nominal flight conditions have been evaluated by Monte-Carlo analyses comprising motion simulations in both three and six degree of freedom. The results show that the mission requirements are met.

Operational flood control of a low-lying delta system using large time step Model Predictive Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Xin; van Overloop, Peter-Jules; Negenborn, Rudy R.; van de Giesen, Nick

2015-01-01

The safety of low-lying deltas is threatened not only by riverine flooding but by storm-induced coastal flooding as well. For the purpose of flood control, these deltas are mostly protected in a man-made environment, where dikes, dams and other adjustable infrastructures, such as gates, barriers and pumps are widely constructed. Instead of always reinforcing and heightening these structures, it is worth considering making the most of the existing infrastructure to reduce the damage and manage the delta in an operational and overall way. In this study, an advanced real-time control approach, Model Predictive Control, is proposed to operate these structures in the Dutch delta system (the Rhine-Meuse delta). The application covers non-linearity in the dynamic behavior of the water system and the structures. To deal with the non-linearity, a linearization scheme is applied which directly uses the gate height instead of the structure flow as the control variable. Given the fact that MPC needs to compute control actions in real-time, we address issues regarding computational time. A new large time step scheme is proposed in order to save computation time, in which different control variables can have different control time steps. Simulation experiments demonstrate that Model Predictive Control with the large time step setting is able to control a delta system better and much more efficiently than the conventional operational schemes.

A feasibility study for long-path multiple detection using a neural network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feuerbacher, G. A.; Moebes, T. A.

1994-01-01

Least-squares inverse filters have found widespread use in the deconvolution of seismograms and the removal of multiples. The use of least-squares prediction filters with prediction distances greater than unity leads to the method of predictive deconvolution which can be used for the removal of long path multiples. The predictive technique allows one to control the length of the desired output wavelet by control of the predictive distance, and hence to specify the desired degree of resolution. Events which are periodic within given repetition ranges can be attenuated selectively. The method is thus effective in the suppression of rather complex reverberation patterns. A back propagation(BP) neural network is constructed to perform the detection of first arrivals of the multiples and therefore aid in the more accurate determination of the predictive distance of the multiples. The neural detector is applied to synthetic reflection coefficients and synthetic seismic traces. The processing results show that the neural detector is accurate and should lead to an automated fast method for determining predictive distances across vast amounts of data such as seismic field records. The neural network system used in this study was the NASA Software Technology Branch's NETS system.

An Analysis of the Optimal Control Modification Method Applied to Flutter Suppression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drew, Michael; Nguyen, Nhan T.; Hashemi, Kelley E.; Ting, Eric; Chaparro, Daniel

2017-01-01

Unlike basic Model Reference Adaptive Control (MRAC)l, Optimal Control Modification (OCM) has been shown to be a promising MRAC modification with robustness and analytical properties not present in other adaptive control methods. This paper presents an analysis of the OCM method, and how the asymptotic property of OCM is useful for analyzing and tuning the controller. We begin with a Lyapunov stability proof of an OCM controller having two adaptive gain terms, then the less conservative and easily analyzed OCM asymptotic property is presented. Two numerical examples are used to show how this property can accurately predict steady state stability and quantitative robustness in the presence of time delay, and relative to linear plant perturbations, and nominal Loop Transfer Recovery (LTR) tuning. The asymptotic property of the OCM controller is then used as an aid in tuning the controller applied to a large scale aeroservoelastic longitudinal aircraft model for flutter suppression. Control with OCM adaptive augmentation is shown to improve performance over that of the nominal non-adaptive controller when significant disparities exist between the controller/observer model and the true plant model.

UV254 absorbance as real-time monitoring and control parameter for micropollutant removal in advanced wastewater treatment with powdered activated carbon.

PubMed

Altmann, Johannes; Massa, Lukas; Sperlich, Alexander; Gnirss, Regina; Jekel, Martin

2016-05-01

This study investigates the applicability of UV absorbance measurements at 254 nm (UVA254) to serve as a simple and reliable surrogate parameter to monitor and control the removal of organic micropollutants (OMPs) in advanced wastewater treatment applying powdered activated carbon (PAC). Correlations between OMP removal and corresponding UVA254 reduction were determined in lab-scale adsorption batch tests and successfully applied to a pilot-scale PAC treatment stage to predict OMP removals in aggregate samples with good accuracy. Real-time UVA254 measurements were utilized to evaluate adapted PAC dosing strategies and proved to be effective for online monitoring of OMP removal. Furthermore, active PAC dosing control according to differential UVA254 measurements was implemented and tested. While precise removal predictions based on real-time measurements were not accurate for all OMPs, UVA254-controlled dynamic PAC dosing was capable of achieving stable OMP removals. UVA254 can serve as an effective surrogate parameter for OMP removal in technical PAC applications. Even though the applicability as control parameter to adjust PAC dosing to water quality changes might be limited to applications with fast response between PAC adjustment and adsorptive removal (e.g. direct filtration), UVA254 measurements can also be used to monitor the adsorption efficiency in more complex PAC applications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Technology of Suppressing Harmonics with Complex Neural Network is Applied to Microgrid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jing; Li, Zhan-Ying; Wang, Yan-ping; Li, Yang; Zong, Ke-yong

2018-03-01

According to the traits of harmonics in microgrid, a new CANN controller which combines BP and RBF neural network is proposed to control APF to detect and suppress harmonics. This controller has the function of current prediction. By simulation in Matlab / Simulink, this design can shorten the delay time nearly 0.02s (a power supply current cycle) in comparison with the traditional controller based on ip-iq method. The new controller also has higher compensation accuracy and better dynamic tracking traits, it can greatly suppress the harmonics and improve the power quality.

Prediction of aircraft handling qualities using analytical models of the human pilot

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, R. A.

1982-01-01

The optimal control model (OCM) of the human pilot is applied to the study of aircraft handling qualities. Attention is focused primarily on longitudinal tasks. The modeling technique differs from previous applications of the OCM in that considerable effort is expended in simplifying the pilot/vehicle analysis. After briefly reviewing the OCM, a technique for modeling the pilot controlling higher order systems is introduced. Following this, a simple criterion for determining the susceptibility of an aircraft to pilot-induced oscillations (PIO) is formulated. Finally, a model-based metric for pilot rating prediction is discussed. The resulting modeling procedure provides a relatively simple, yet unified approach to the study of a variety of handling qualities problems.

Prediction of aircraft handling qualities using analytical models of the human pilot

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, R. A.

1982-01-01

The optimal control model (OCM) of the human pilot is applied to the study of aircraft handling qualities. Attention is focused primarily on longitudinal tasks. The modeling technique differs from previous applications of the OCM in that considerable effort is expended in simplifying the pilot/vehicle analysis. After briefly reviewing the OCM, a technique for modeling the pilot controlling higher order systems is introduced. Following this, a simple criterion for determining the susceptibility of an aircraft to pilot induced oscillations is formulated. Finally, a model based metric for pilot rating prediction is discussed. The resulting modeling procedure provides a relatively simple, yet unified approach to the study of a variety of handling qualities problems.

An analytical approach for predicting pilot induced oscillations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, R. A.

1981-01-01

The optimal control model (OCM) of the human pilot is applied to the study of aircraft handling qualities. Attention is focused primarily on longitudinal tasks. The modeling technique differs from previous applications of the OCM in that considerable effort is expended in simplifying the pilot/vehicle analysis. After briefly reviewing the OCM, a technique for modeling the pilot controlling higher order systems is introduced. Following this, a simple criterion or determining the susceptability of an aircraft to pilot induced oscillations (PIO) is formulated. Finally, a model-based metric for pilot rating prediction is discussed. The resulting modeling procedure provides a relatively simple, yet unified approach to the study of a variety of handling qualities problems.

A Unified Statistical Rain-Attenuation Model for Communication Link Fade Predictions and Optimal Stochastic Fade Control Design Using a Location-Dependent Rain-Statistic Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manning, Robert M.

1990-01-01

A static and dynamic rain-attenuation model is presented which describes the statistics of attenuation on an arbitrarily specified satellite link for any location for which there are long-term rainfall statistics. The model may be used in the design of the optimal stochastic control algorithms to mitigate the effects of attenuation and maintain link reliability. A rain-statistics data base is compiled, which makes it possible to apply the model to any location in the continental U.S. with a resolution of 0-5 degrees in latitude and longitude. The model predictions are compared with experimental observations, showing good agreement.

Evaluating RNAlater® as a preservative for using near-infrared spectroscopy to predict Anopheles gambiae age and species

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Mosquito age and species identification is a crucial determinant of the efficacy of vector control programs. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) has previously been applied successfully to rapidly, non-destructively, and simultaneously determine the age and species of freshly anesthetized African mala...

Management and prediction of red oak decline in the Missouri Ozarks

Treesearch

James J. Wetteroff; John P. Dwyer

1993-01-01

In 1990, 72, 0.50-acre permanent plots were laid out and tree and regeneration data was collected on four sites which showed evidence of red oak decline in the Missouri Ozarks. In the fall of 1990, three treatments were applied; a control, selection cutting, and clearcutting.

Applying Spatial-Temporal Model and Game Theory to Asymmetric Threat Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

Genshe Chen, Denis Garagic, Xiaohuan Tan, Dongxu Li, Dan Shen, Mo Wei, Xu Wang, “Team Dynamics and Tactics for Mission Planning,” Proceedings...Cruz, Jr., Genshe Chen, Dongxu Li, and Denis Garagic, “Target Selection in UAV Cooperative Control Under Uncertain Environment: Genetic Algorithm

The design and optimization for light-algae bioreactor controller based on Artificial Neural Network-Model Predictive Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Dawei; Liu, Hong; Yang, Chenliang; Hu, Enzhu

As a subsystem of the bioregenerative life support system (BLSS), light-algae bioreactor (LABR) has properties of high reaction rate, efficiently synthesizing microalgal biomass, absorbing CO2 and releasing O2, so it is significant for BLSS to provide food and maintain gas balance. In order to manipulate the LABR properly, it has been designed as a closed-loop control system, and technology of Artificial Neural Network-Model Predictive Control (ANN-MPC) is applied to design the controller for LABR in which green microalgae, Spirulina platensis is cultivated continuously. The conclusion is drawn by computer simulation that ANN-MPC controller can intelligently learn the complicated dynamic performances of LABR, and automatically, robustly and self-adaptively regulate the light intensity illuminating on the LABR, hence make the growth of microalgae in the LABR be changed in line with the references, meanwhile provide appropriate damping to improve markedly the transient response performance of LABR.

Implementation and Test of the Automatic Flight Dynamics Operations for Geostationary Satellite Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Sangwook; Lee, Young-Ran; Hwang, Yoola; Javier Santiago Noguero Galilea

2009-12-01

This paper describes the Flight Dynamics Automation (FDA) system for COMS Flight Dynamics System (FDS) and its test result in terms of the performance of the automation jobs. FDA controls the flight dynamics functions such as orbit determination, orbit prediction, event prediction, and fuel accounting. The designed FDA is independent from the specific characteristics which are defined by spacecraft manufacturer or specific satellite missions. Therefore, FDA could easily links its autonomous job control functions to any satellite mission control system with some interface modification. By adding autonomous system along with flight dynamics system, it decreases the operator’s tedious and repeated jobs but increase the usability and reliability of the system. Therefore, FDA is used to improve the completeness of whole mission control system’s quality. The FDA is applied to the real flight dynamics system of a geostationary satellite, COMS and the experimental test is performed. The experimental result shows the stability and reliability of the mission control operations through the automatic job control.

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report. First Quarter FY-05

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William; Wheeler, Mark; Lambert, Winifred; Case, Jonathan; Short, David

2005-01-01

This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2005 (October - December 2005). Tasks reviewed include: (1) Objective Lightning Probability Forecast: Phase I, (2) Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid, (3) Hail Index, (4) Stable Low Cloud Evaluation, (5) Shuttle Ascent Camera Cloud Obstruction Forecast, (6) Range Standardization and Automation (RSA) and Legacy Wind Sensor Evaluation, (7) Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Optimization and Training Extension, and (8) User Control Interface for ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS) Data Ingest

Nondestructive monitoring of fatigue damage evolution in austenitic stainless steel by positron-lifetime measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holzwarth, Uwe; Schaaff, Petra

2004-03-01

Positron-lifetime measurements have been performed on austenitic stainless steel during (i) stress- and (ii) strain-controlled fatigue experiments for different applied stress and strain amplitudes, respectively. For this purpose a generator-detector assembly with a 72Se/72As positron generator [maximum activity 25 μCi (0.9 MBq)] has been mounted on mechanical testing machines in order to measure the positron lifetime without removing the specimens from the load train. The average positron lifetime has been determined by a β+-γ coincidence. The feasibility to use the average positron lifetime for monitoring the evolution of fatigue damage and to predict early failure has been examined. In strain- and stress-controlled experiments the average positron lifetime shows a pronounced increase within the first 10% and 40% of the fatigue life, respectively. In stress-controlled experiments the average positron lifetime at failure depends significantly on the applied stress amplitude. In strain-controlled experiments significantly different positron lifetimes for different applied plastic strain amplitudes are obtained within the first 1.000 fatigue cycles, whereas differences get wiped out during further cycling until failure.

A theory and model of conflict detection in air traffic control: incorporating environmental constraints.

PubMed

Loft, Shayne; Bolland, Scott; Humphreys, Michael S; Neal, Andrew

2009-06-01

A performance theory for conflict detection in air traffic control is presented that specifies how controllers adapt decisions to compensate for environmental constraints. This theory is then used as a framework for a model that can fit controller intervention decisions. The performance theory proposes that controllers apply safety margins to ensure separation between aircraft. These safety margins are formed through experience and reflect the biasing of decisions to favor safety over accuracy, as well as expectations regarding uncertainty in aircraft trajectory. In 2 experiments, controllers indicated whether they would intervene to ensure separation between pairs of aircraft. The model closely predicted the probability of controller intervention across the geometry of problems and as a function of controller experience. When controller safety margins were manipulated via task instructions, the parameters of the model changed in the predicted direction. The strength of the model over existing and alternative models is that it better captures the uncertainty and decision biases involved in the process of conflict detection. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved).

Understanding Eating Behaviors through Parental Communication and the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction.

PubMed

Scheinfeld, Emily; Shim, Minsun

2017-05-01

Emerging adulthood (EA) is an important yet overlooked period for developing long-term health behaviors. During these years, emerging adults adopt health behaviors that persist throughout life. This study applies the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction (IMBP) to examine the role of childhood parental communication in predicting engagement in healthful eating during EA. Participants included 239 college students, ages 18 to 25, from a large university in the southern United States. Participants were recruited and data collection occurred spring 2012. Participants responded to measures to assess perceived parental communication, eating behaviors, attitudes, subjective norms, and behavioral control over healthful eating. SEM and mediation analyses were used to address the hypotheses posited. Data demonstrated that perceived parent-child communication - specifically, its quality and target-specific content - significantly predicted emerging adults' eating behaviors, mediated through subjective norm and perceived behavioral control. This study sets the stage for further exploration and understanding of different ways parental communication influences emerging adults' healthy behavior enactment.

ERTS-1 data collection systems used to predict wheat disease severities. [Riley County, Kansas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanemasu, E. T.; Schimmelpfenning, H.; Choy, E. C.; Eversmeyer, M. G.; Lenhert, D.

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The feasibility of using the data collection system on ERTS-1 to predict wheat leaf rust severity and resulting yield loss was tested. Ground-based data collection platforms (DCP'S), placed in two commercial wheat fields in Riley County, Kansas, transmitted to the satellite such meteorological information as maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, and hours of free moisture. Meteorological data received from the two DCP'S from April 23 to 29 were used to estimate the disease progress curve. Values from the curve were used to predict the percentage decrease in wheat yields resulting from leaf rust. Actual decrease in yield was obtained by applying a zinc and maneb spray (5.6 kg/ha) to control leaf rust, then comparing yields of the controlled (healthy) and the noncontrolled (rusted) areas. In each field a 9% decrease in yield was predicted by the DCP-derived data; actual decreases were 12% and 9%.

Scheduling Chemotherapy: Catch 22 between Cell Kill and Resistance Evolution

DOE PAGES

Gardner, Shea N.

2000-01-01

Dose response curves show that prolonged drug exposure at a low concentration may kill more cells than short exposures at higher drug concentrations, particularly for cell cycle phase specific drugs. Applying drugs at low concentrations for prolonged periods, however, allows cells with partial resistance to evolve higher levels of resistance through stepwise processes such as gene amplification. Models are developed for cell cycle specific (CS) and cell cycle nonspecific (CNS) drugs to identify the schedule of drug application that balances this tradeoff. The models predict that a CS drug may be applied most effectively by splitting the cumulative dose intomore » many (>40) fractions applied by long-term chemotherapy, while CNS drugs may be better applied in fewer than 10 fractions applied over a shorter term. The model suggests that administering each fraction by continuous infusion may be more effective than giving the drug as a bolus, whether the drug is CS or CNS. In addition, tumors with a low growth fraction or slow rate of cell division are predicted to be controlled more easily with CNS drugs, while those with a high proliferative fraction or fast cell division rate may respond better to CS drugs.« less

Scheduling Chemotherapy: Catch 22 between Cell Kill and Resistance Evolution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gardner, Shea N.

Dose response curves show that prolonged drug exposure at a low concentration may kill more cells than short exposures at higher drug concentrations, particularly for cell cycle phase specific drugs. Applying drugs at low concentrations for prolonged periods, however, allows cells with partial resistance to evolve higher levels of resistance through stepwise processes such as gene amplification. Models are developed for cell cycle specific (CS) and cell cycle nonspecific (CNS) drugs to identify the schedule of drug application that balances this tradeoff. The models predict that a CS drug may be applied most effectively by splitting the cumulative dose intomore » many (>40) fractions applied by long-term chemotherapy, while CNS drugs may be better applied in fewer than 10 fractions applied over a shorter term. The model suggests that administering each fraction by continuous infusion may be more effective than giving the drug as a bolus, whether the drug is CS or CNS. In addition, tumors with a low growth fraction or slow rate of cell division are predicted to be controlled more easily with CNS drugs, while those with a high proliferative fraction or fast cell division rate may respond better to CS drugs.« less

Changes in Gene Expression Predicting Local Control in Cervical Cancer: Results from Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 0128

PubMed Central

Weidhaas, Joanne B.; Li, Shu-Xia; Winter, Kathryn; Ryu, Janice; Jhingran, Anuja; Miller, Bridgette; Dicker, Adam P.; Gaffney, David

2009-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the potential of gene expression signatures to predict response to treatment in locally advanced cervical cancer treated with definitive chemotherapy and radiation. Experimental Design Tissue biopsies were collected from patients participating in Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 0128, a phase II trial evaluating the benefit of celecoxib in addition to cisplatin chemotherapy and radiation for locally advanced cervical cancer. Gene expression profiling was done and signatures of pretreatment, mid-treatment (before the first implant), and “changed” gene expression patterns between pre- and mid-treatment samples were determined. The ability of the gene signatures to predict local control versus local failure was evaluated. Two-group t test was done to identify the initial gene set separating these end points. Supervised classification methods were used to enrich the gene sets. The results were further validated by leave-one-out and 2-fold cross-validation. Results Twenty-two patients had suitable material from pretreatment samples for analysis, and 13 paired pre- and mid-treatment samples were obtained. The changed gene expression signatures between the pre- and mid-treatment biopsies predicted response to treatment, separating patients with local failures from those who achieved local control with a seven-gene signature. The in-sample prediction rate, leave-one-out prediction rate, and 2-fold prediction rate are 100% for this seven-gene signature. This signature was enriched for cell cycle genes. Conclusions Changed gene expression signatures during therapy in cervical cancer can predict outcome as measured by local control. After further validation, such findings could be applied to direct additional therapy for cervical cancer patients treated with chemotherapy and radiation. PMID:19509178

Forecasting paediatric malaria admissions on the Kenya Coast using rainfall.

PubMed

Karuri, Stella Wanjugu; Snow, Robert W

2016-01-01

Malaria is a vector-borne disease which, despite recent scaled-up efforts to achieve control in Africa, continues to pose a major threat to child survival. The disease is caused by the protozoan parasite Plasmodium and requires mosquitoes and humans for transmission. Rainfall is a major factor in seasonal and secular patterns of malaria transmission along the East African coast. The goal of the study was to develop a model to reliably forecast incidences of paediatric malaria admissions to Kilifi District Hospital (KDH). In this article, we apply several statistical models to look at the temporal association between monthly paediatric malaria hospital admissions, rainfall, and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Trend and seasonally adjusted, marginal and multivariate, time-series models for hospital admissions were applied to a unique data set to examine the role of climate, seasonality, and long-term anomalies in predicting malaria hospital admission rates and whether these might become more or less predictable with increasing vector control. The proportion of paediatric admissions to KDH that have malaria as a cause of admission can be forecast by a model which depends on the proportion of malaria admissions in the previous 2 months. This model is improved by incorporating either the previous month's Indian Ocean Dipole information or the previous 2 months' rainfall. Surveillance data can help build time-series prediction models which can be used to anticipate seasonal variations in clinical burdens of malaria in stable transmission areas and aid the timing of malaria vector control.

A pre-admission program for underrepresented minority and disadvantaged students: application, acceptance, graduation rates and timeliness of graduating from medical school.

PubMed

Strayhorn, G

2000-04-01

To determine whether students' performances in a pre-admission program predicted whether participants would (1) apply to medical school, (2) get accepted, and (3) graduate. Using prospectively collected data from participants in the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill's Medical Education Development Program (MEDP) and data from the Association of American Colleges Student and Applicant Information Management System, the author identified 371 underrepresented minority (URM) students who were full-time participants and completed the program between 1984 and 1989, prior to their acceptance into medical school. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine whether MEDP performance significantly predicted (after statistically controlling for traditional predictors of these outcomes) the proportions of URM participants who applied to medical school and were accepted, the timeliness of graduating, and the proportion graduating. Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated to determine the associations between the independent and outcome variables. In separate logistic regression models, MEDP performance predicted the study's outcomes after statistically controlling for traditional predictors with 95% confidence intervals. Pre-admission programs with similar outcomes can improve the diversity of the physician workforce and the access to health care for underrepresented minority and economically disadvantaged populations.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on disease vectors through ecological niche modelling.

PubMed

Carvalho, B M; Rangel, E F; Vale, M M

2017-08-01

Vector-borne diseases are exceptionally sensitive to climate change. Predicting vector occurrence in specific regions is a challenge that disease control programs must meet in order to plan and execute control interventions and climate change adaptation measures. Recently, an increasing number of scientific articles have applied ecological niche modelling (ENM) to study medically important insects and ticks. With a myriad of available methods, it is challenging to interpret their results. Here we review the future projections of disease vectors produced by ENM, and assess their trends and limitations. Tropical regions are currently occupied by many vector species; but future projections indicate poleward expansions of suitable climates for their occurrence and, therefore, entomological surveillance must be continuously done in areas projected to become suitable. The most commonly applied methods were the maximum entropy algorithm, generalized linear models, the genetic algorithm for rule set prediction, and discriminant analysis. Lack of consideration of the full-known current distribution of the target species on models with future projections has led to questionable predictions. We conclude that there is no ideal 'gold standard' method to model vector distributions; researchers are encouraged to test different methods for the same data. Such practice is becoming common in the field of ENM, but still lags behind in studies of disease vectors.

Generating Adaptive Behaviour within a Memory-Prediction Framework

PubMed Central

Rawlinson, David; Kowadlo, Gideon

2012-01-01

The Memory-Prediction Framework (MPF) and its Hierarchical-Temporal Memory implementation (HTM) have been widely applied to unsupervised learning problems, for both classification and prediction. To date, there has been no attempt to incorporate MPF/HTM in reinforcement learning or other adaptive systems; that is, to use knowledge embodied within the hierarchy to control a system, or to generate behaviour for an agent. This problem is interesting because the human neocortex is believed to play a vital role in the generation of behaviour, and the MPF is a model of the human neocortex. We propose some simple and biologically-plausible enhancements to the Memory-Prediction Framework. These cause it to explore and interact with an external world, while trying to maximize a continuous, time-varying reward function. All behaviour is generated and controlled within the MPF hierarchy. The hierarchy develops from a random initial configuration by interaction with the world and reinforcement learning only. Among other demonstrations, we show that a 2-node hierarchy can learn to successfully play “rocks, paper, scissors” against a predictable opponent. PMID:22272231

Model-on-Demand Predictive Control for Nonlinear Hybrid Systems With Application to Adaptive Behavioral Interventions

PubMed Central

Nandola, Naresh N.; Rivera, Daniel E.

2011-01-01

This paper presents a data-centric modeling and predictive control approach for nonlinear hybrid systems. System identification of hybrid systems represents a challenging problem because model parameters depend on the mode or operating point of the system. The proposed algorithm applies Model-on-Demand (MoD) estimation to generate a local linear approximation of the nonlinear hybrid system at each time step, using a small subset of data selected by an adaptive bandwidth selector. The appeal of the MoD approach lies in the fact that model parameters are estimated based on a current operating point; hence estimation of locations or modes governed by autonomous discrete events is achieved automatically. The local MoD model is then converted into a mixed logical dynamical (MLD) system representation which can be used directly in a model predictive control (MPC) law for hybrid systems using multiple-degree-of-freedom tuning. The effectiveness of the proposed MoD predictive control algorithm for nonlinear hybrid systems is demonstrated on a hypothetical adaptive behavioral intervention problem inspired by Fast Track, a real-life preventive intervention for improving parental function and reducing conduct disorder in at-risk children. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can be useful for adaptive intervention problems exhibiting both nonlinear and hybrid character. PMID:21874087

A Study on Predictive Analytics Application to Ship Machinery Maintenance

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

Looking at the nature of the time series forecasting method , it would be better applied to offline analysis . The application for real- time online...other system attributes in future. Two techniques of statistical analysis , mainly time series models and cumulative sum control charts, are discussed in...statistical tool employed for the two techniques of statistical analysis . Both time series forecasting as well as CUSUM control charts are shown to be

Predictive Control of the Blood Glucose Level in Type I Diabetic Patient Using Delay Differential Equation Wang Model.

PubMed

Esna-Ashari, Mojgan; Zekri, Maryam; Askari, Masood; Khalili, Noushin

2017-01-01

Because of increasing risk of diabetes, the measurement along with control of blood sugar has been of great importance in recent decades. In type I diabetes, because of the lack of insulin secretion, the cells cannot absorb glucose leading to low level of glucose. To control blood glucose (BG), the insulin must be injected to the body. This paper proposes a method for BG level regulation in type I diabetes. The control strategy is based on nonlinear model predictive control. The aim of the proposed controller optimized with genetics algorithms is to measure BG level each time and predict it for the next time interval. This merit causes a less amount of control effort, which is the rate of insulin delivered to the patient body. Consequently, this method can decrease the risk of hypoglycemia, a lethal phenomenon in regulating BG level in diabetes caused by a low BG level. Two delay differential equation models, namely Wang model and Enhanced Wang model, are applied as controller model and plant, respectively. The simulation results exhibit an acceptable performance of the proposed controller in meal disturbance rejection and robustness against parameter changes. As a result, if the nutrition of the person decreases instantly, the hypoglycemia will not happen. Furthermore, comparing this method with other works, it was shown that the new method outperforms previous studies.

Predictive Control of the Blood Glucose Level in Type I Diabetic Patient Using Delay Differential Equation Wang Model

PubMed Central

Esna-Ashari, Mojgan; Zekri, Maryam; Askari, Masood; Khalili, Noushin

2017-01-01

Because of increasing risk of diabetes, the measurement along with control of blood sugar has been of great importance in recent decades. In type I diabetes, because of the lack of insulin secretion, the cells cannot absorb glucose leading to low level of glucose. To control blood glucose (BG), the insulin must be injected to the body. This paper proposes a method for BG level regulation in type I diabetes. The control strategy is based on nonlinear model predictive control. The aim of the proposed controller optimized with genetics algorithms is to measure BG level each time and predict it for the next time interval. This merit causes a less amount of control effort, which is the rate of insulin delivered to the patient body. Consequently, this method can decrease the risk of hypoglycemia, a lethal phenomenon in regulating BG level in diabetes caused by a low BG level. Two delay differential equation models, namely Wang model and Enhanced Wang model, are applied as controller model and plant, respectively. The simulation results exhibit an acceptable performance of the proposed controller in meal disturbance rejection and robustness against parameter changes. As a result, if the nutrition of the person decreases instantly, the hypoglycemia will not happen. Furthermore, comparing this method with other works, it was shown that the new method outperforms previous studies. PMID:28487828

Assessment of the potential human health risks from exposure to complex substances in accordance with REACH requirements. "White spirit" as a case study.

PubMed

McKee, Richard H; Tibaldi, Rosalie; Adenuga, Moyinoluwa D; Carrillo, Juan-Carlos; Margary, Alison

2018-02-01

The European chemical control regulation (REACH) requires that data on physical/chemical, toxicological and environmental hazards be compiled. Additionally, REACH requires formal assessments to ensure that substances can be safely used for their intended purposes. For health hazard assessments, reference values (Derived No Effect levels, DNELs) are calculated from toxicology data and compared to estimated exposure levels. If the ratio of the predicted exposure level to the DNEL, i.e. the Risk Characterization Ratio (RCR), is less than 1, the risk is considered controlled; otherwise, additional Risk Management Measures (RMM) must be applied. These requirements pose particular challenges for complex substances. Herein, "white spirit", a complex hydrocarbon solvent, is used as an example to illustrate how these procedures were applied. Hydrocarbon solvents were divided into categories of similar substances. Representative substances were identified for DNEL determinations. Adjustment factors were applied to the no effect levels to calculate the DNELs. Exposure assessments utilized a standardized set of generic exposure scenarios (GES) which incorporated exposure predictions for solvent handling activities. Computer-based tools were developed to automate RCR calculations and identify appropriate RMMs, allowing consistent communications to users via safety data sheets. Copyright © 2017 ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An extended reinforcement learning model of basal ganglia to understand the contributions of serotonin and dopamine in risk-based decision making, reward prediction, and punishment learning

PubMed Central

Balasubramani, Pragathi P.; Chakravarthy, V. Srinivasa; Ravindran, Balaraman; Moustafa, Ahmed A.

2014-01-01

Although empirical and neural studies show that serotonin (5HT) plays many functional roles in the brain, prior computational models mostly focus on its role in behavioral inhibition. In this study, we present a model of risk based decision making in a modified Reinforcement Learning (RL)-framework. The model depicts the roles of dopamine (DA) and serotonin (5HT) in Basal Ganglia (BG). In this model, the DA signal is represented by the temporal difference error (δ), while the 5HT signal is represented by a parameter (α) that controls risk prediction error. This formulation that accommodates both 5HT and DA reconciles some of the diverse roles of 5HT particularly in connection with the BG system. We apply the model to different experimental paradigms used to study the role of 5HT: (1) Risk-sensitive decision making, where 5HT controls risk assessment, (2) Temporal reward prediction, where 5HT controls time-scale of reward prediction, and (3) Reward/Punishment sensitivity, in which the punishment prediction error depends on 5HT levels. Thus the proposed integrated RL model reconciles several existing theories of 5HT and DA in the BG. PMID:24795614

Pathways from parental knowledge and warmth to adolescent marijuana use: an extension to the theory of planned behavior.

PubMed

Lac, Andrew; Alvaro, Eusebio M; Crano, William D; Siegel, Jason T

2009-03-01

Despite research indicating that effective parenting plays an important protective role in adolescent risk behaviors, few studies have applied theory to examine this link with marijuana use, especially with national data. In the current study (N = 2,141), we hypothesized that parental knowledge (of adolescent activities and whereabouts) and parental warmth are antecedents of adolescents' marijuana beliefs-attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control-as posited by the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB; Ajzen 1991). These three types of beliefs were hypothesized to predict marijuana intention, which in turn was hypothesized to predict marijuana consumption. Results of confirmatory factor analyses corroborated the psychometric properties of the two-factor parenting structure as well as the five-factor structure of the TPB. Further, the proposed integrative predictive framework, estimated with a latent structural equation model, was largely supported. Parental knowledge inversely predicted pro-marijuana attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control; parental warmth inversely predicted pro-marijuana attitudes and subjective norms, ps < .001. Marijuana intention (p < .001), but not perceived behavioral control, predicted marijuana use 1 year later. In households with high parental knowledge, parental warmth also was perceived to be high (r = .54, p < .001). Owing to the analysis of nationally representative data, results are generalizable to the United States population of adolescents 12-18 years of age.

Effect of Interfacial Turbulence and Accommodation Coefficient on CFD Predictions of Pressurization and Pressure Control in Cryogenic Storage Tank

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kassemi, Mohammad; Kartuzova, Olga; Hylton, Sonya

2015-01-01

Laminar models agree closely with the pressure evolution and vapor phase temperature stratification but under-predict liquid temperatures. Turbulent SST k-w and k-e models under-predict the pressurization rate and extent of stratification in the vapor but represent liquid temperature distributions fairly well. These conclusions seem to equally apply to large cryogenic tank simulations as well as small scale simulant fluid pressurization cases. Appropriate turbulent models that represent both interfacial and bulk vapor phase turbulence with greater fidelity are needed. Application of LES models to the tank pressurization problem can serve as a starting point.

Automated detection of external ventricular and lumbar drain-related meningitis using laboratory and microbiology results and medication data.

PubMed

van Mourik, Maaike S M; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Berkelbach van der Sprenkel, Jan Willem; van Solinge, Wouter W; Troelstra, Annet; Bonten, Marc J M

2011-01-01

Monitoring of healthcare-associated infection rates is important for infection control and hospital benchmarking. However, manual surveillance is time-consuming and susceptible to error. The aim was, therefore, to develop a prediction model to retrospectively detect drain-related meningitis (DRM), a frequently occurring nosocomial infection, using routinely collected data from a clinical data warehouse. As part of the hospital infection control program, all patients receiving an external ventricular (EVD) or lumbar drain (ELD) (2004 to 2009; n = 742) had been evaluated for the development of DRM through chart review and standardized diagnostic criteria by infection control staff; this was the reference standard. Children, patients dying <24 hours after drain insertion or with <1 day follow-up and patients with infection at the time of insertion or multiple simultaneous drains were excluded. Logistic regression was used to develop a model predicting the occurrence of DRM. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation. Bootstrapping was applied to increase generalizability. 537 patients remained after application of exclusion criteria, of which 82 developed DRM (13.5/1000 days at risk). The automated model to detect DRM included the number of drains placed, drain type, blood leukocyte count, C-reactive protein, cerebrospinal fluid leukocyte count and culture result, number of antibiotics started during admission, and empiric antibiotic therapy. Discriminatory power of this model was excellent (area under the ROC curve 0.97). The model achieved 98.8% sensitivity (95% CI 88.0% to 99.9%) and specificity of 87.9% (84.6% to 90.8%). Positive and negative predictive values were 56.9% (50.8% to 67.9%) and 99.9% (98.6% to 99.9%), respectively. Predicted yearly infection rates concurred with observed infection rates. A prediction model based on multi-source data stored in a clinical data warehouse could accurately quantify rates of DRM. Automated detection using this statistical approach is feasible and could be applied to other nosocomial infections.

The Interaction between Interoceptive and Action States within a Framework of Predictive Coding

PubMed Central

Marshall, Amanda C.; Gentsch, Antje; Schütz-Bosbach, Simone

2018-01-01

The notion of predictive coding assumes that perception is an iterative process between prior knowledge and sensory feedback. To date, this perspective has been primarily applied to exteroceptive perception as well as action and its associated phenomenological experiences such as agency. More recently, this predictive, inferential framework has been theoretically extended to interoception. This idea postulates that subjective feeling states are generated by top–down inferences made about internal and external causes of interoceptive afferents. While the processing of motor signals for action control and the emergence of selfhood have been studied extensively, the contributions of interoceptive input and especially the potential interaction of motor and interoceptive signals remain largely unaddressed. Here, we argue for a specific functional relation between motor and interoceptive awareness. Specifically, we implicate interoceptive predictions in the generation of subjective motor-related feeling states. Furthermore, we propose a distinction between reflexive and pre-reflexive modes of agentic action control and suggest that interoceptive input may affect each differently. Finally, we advocate the necessity of continuous interoceptive input for conscious forms of agentic action control. We conclude by discussing further research contributions that would allow for a fuller understanding of the interaction between agency and interoceptive awareness. PMID:29515495

Interior noise control prediction study for high-speed propeller-driven aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rennison, D. C.; Wilby, J. F.; Marsh, A. H.; Wilby, E. G.

1979-01-01

An analytical model was developed to predict the noise levels inside propeller-driven aircraft during cruise at M = 0.8. The model was applied to three study aircraft with fuselages of different size (wide body, narrow body and small diameter) in order to determine the noise reductions required to achieve the goal of an A-weighted sound level which does not exceed 80 dB. The model was then used to determine noise control methods which could achieve the required noise reductions. Two classes of noise control treatments were investigated: add-on treatments which can be added to existing structures, and advanced concepts which would require changes to the fuselage primary structure. Only one treatment, a double wall with limp panel, provided the required noise reductions. Weight penalties associated with the treatment were estimated for the three study aircraft.

Frictionless segmented mechanics for controlled space closure

PubMed Central

Andrade, Ildeu

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Extraction spaces may be needed to achieve specific orthodontic goals of positioning the dentition in harmony with the craniofacial complex. However, the fundamental reality that determines the occlusion final position is the control exerted by the orthodontist while closing the extraction spaces. A specific treatment objective may require the posterior teeth to remain in a constant position anteroposteriorly as well as vertically, while the anterior teeth occupy the entire extraction site. Another treatment objective may require the opposite, or any number of intentional alternatives of extraction site closure. The present case report describes a simple controlled segmented mechanic system that permitted definable and predictable force systems to be applied and allowed to predict the treatment outcome with confidence. This case was presented to the Brazilian Board of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics (BBO) in partial fulfillment of the requirements for Diplomate certification. PMID:28444016

Current Trends in Modeling Research for Turbulent Aerodynamic Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gatski, Thomas B.; Rumsey, Christopher L.; Manceau, Remi

2007-01-01

The engineering tools of choice for the computation of practical engineering flows have begun to migrate from those based on the traditional Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes approach to methodologies capable, in theory if not in practice, of accurately predicting some instantaneous scales of motion in the flow. The migration has largely been driven by both the success of Reynolds-averaged methods over a wide variety of flows as well as the inherent limitations of the method itself. Practitioners, emboldened by their ability to predict a wide-variety of statistically steady, equilibrium turbulent flows, have now turned their attention to flow control and non-equilibrium flows, that is, separation control. This review gives some current priorities in traditional Reynolds-averaged modeling research as well as some methodologies being applied to a new class of turbulent flow control problems.

Adaptive fuzzy controller for thermal comfort inside the air-conditioned automobile chamber

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tong, L.; Yu, B.; Chen, Z.

1999-07-01

In order to meet the passengers' demand for thermal comfort, the adaptive fuzzy logic control design methodology is applied for the automobile airconditioner system. In accordance with the theory of air flow and heat transfer, the air temperature field inside the airconditioned automobile chamber is simulated by a set of simplified half-empirical formula. Then, instead of PMV (Predicted Mean Vote) criterion, RIV (Real Individual Vote) criterion is adopted as the base of the control for passengers' thermal comfort. The proposed controller is applied to the air temperature regulation at the individual passenger position. The control procedure is based on partitioningmore » the state space of the system into cell-groups and fuzzily quantificating the state space into these cells. When the system model has some parameter perturbation, the controller can also adjust its control parameters to compensate for the perturbation and maintain the good performance. The learning procedure shows its ideal effect in both computer simulation and experiments. The final results demonstrate the ideal performance of this adaptive fuzzy controller.« less

Computational Study of Laminar Flow Control on a Subsonic Swept Wing Using Discrete Roughness Elements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Fei; Choudhari, Meelan M.; Chang, Chau-Lyan; Streett, Craig L.; Carpenter, Mark H.

2011-01-01

A combination of parabolized stability equations and secondary instability theory has been applied to a low-speed swept airfoil model with a chord Reynolds number of 7.15 million, with the goals of (i) evaluating this methodology in the context of transition prediction for a known configuration for which roughness based crossflow transition control has been demonstrated under flight conditions and (ii) of analyzing the mechanism of transition delay via the introduction of discrete roughness elements (DRE). Roughness based transition control involves controlled seeding of suitable, subdominant crossflow modes, so as to weaken the growth of naturally occurring, linearly more unstable crossflow modes. Therefore, a synthesis of receptivity, linear and nonlinear growth of stationary crossflow disturbances, and the ensuing development of high frequency secondary instabilities is desirable to understand the experimentally observed transition behavior. With further validation, such higher fidelity prediction methodology could be utilized to assess the potential for crossflow transition control at even higher Reynolds numbers, where experimental data is currently unavailable.

Distinguishing between tectonic and lithologic controls on bedrock channel longitudinal profiles using cosmogenic 10Be erosion rates and channel steepness index

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cyr, Andrew J.; Granger, Darryl E.; Olivetti, Valerio; Molin, Paola

2014-01-01

Knickpoints in fluvial channel longitudinal profiles and channel steepness index values derived from digital elevation data can be used to detect tectonic structures and infer spatial patterns of uplift. However, changes in lithologic resistance to channel incision can also influence the morphology of longitudinal profiles. We compare the spatial patterns of both channel steepness index and cosmogenic 10Be-determined erosion rates from four landscapes in Italy, where the geology and tectonics are well constrained, to four theoretical predictions of channel morphologies, which can be interpreted as the result of primarily tectonic or lithologic controls. These data indicate that longitudinal profile forms controlled by unsteady or nonuniform tectonics can be distinguished from those controlled by nonuniform lithologic resistance. In each landscape the distribution of channel steepness index and erosion rates is consistent with model predictions and demonstrates that cosmogenic nuclide methods can be applied to distinguish between these two controlling factors.

Roughness Based Crossflow Transition Control: A Computational Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Fei; Choudhari, Meelan M.; Chang, Chau-Lyan; Streett, Craig L.; Carpenter, Mark H.

2009-01-01

A combination of parabolized stability equations and secondary instability theory has been applied to a low-speed swept airfoil model with a chord Reynolds number of 7.15 million, with the goals of (i) evaluating this methodology in the context of transition prediction for a known configuration for which roughness based crossflow transition control has been demonstrated under flight conditions and (ii) of analyzing the mechanism of transition delay via the introduction of discrete roughness elements (DRE). Roughness based transition control involves controlled seeding of suitable, subdominant crossflow modes, so as to weaken the growth of naturally occurring, linearly more unstable crossflow modes. Therefore, a synthesis of receptivity, linear and nonlinear growth of stationary crossflow disturbances, and the ensuing development of high frequency secondary instabilities is desirable to understand the experimentally observed transition behavior. With further validation, such higher fidelity prediction methodology could be utilized to assess the potential for crossflow transition control at even higher Reynolds numbers, where experimental data is currently unavailable.

Short-term Operation of Multi-purpose Reservoir using Model Predictive Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uysal, Gokcen; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Alvarado Montero, Rodolfo; Sensoy, Aynur; Arda Sorman, Ali

2017-04-01

Operation of water structures especially with conflicting water supply and flood mitigation objectives is under more stress attributed to growing water demand and changing hydro-climatic conditions. Model Predictive Control (MPC) based optimal control solutions has been successfully applied to different water resources applications. In this study, Feedback Control (FBC) and MPC get combined and an improved joint optimization-simulation operating scheme is proposed. Water supply and flood control objectives are fulfilled by incorporating the long term water supply objectives into a time-dependent variable guide curve policy whereas the extreme floods are attenuated by means of short-term optimization based on MPC. A final experiment is carried out to assess the lead time performance and reliability of forecasts in a hindcasting experiment with imperfect, perturbed forecasts. The framework is tested in Yuvacık Dam reservoir where the main water supply reservoir of Kocaeli City in the northwestern part of Turkey (the Marmara region) and it requires a challenging gate operation due to restricted downstream flow conditions.

Predicting Future-Year Ozone Concentrations: Integrated Observational-Modeling Approach for Probabilistic Evaluation of the Efficacy of Emission Control strategies

EPA Science Inventory

Regional-scale air quality models are being used to demonstrate attainment of the ozone air quality standard. In current regulatory applications, a regional-scale air quality model is applied for a base year and a future year with reduced emissions using the same meteorological ...

What High-Achieving Latino Students Need to Apply to College: Environmental Factors, Individual Resiliency, or Both?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rivera, Gwendelyn J.

2014-01-01

This quantitative study investigated how well environmental and individual factors predicted college-going behavior for college eligible Latino/as. Three questions were addressed: (a) Is there a relationship between individual agency and college-going behavior after controlling for environmental factors? (b) What is the relationship between the…

Combined Metabolomic Analysis of Plasma and Urine Reveals AHBA, Tryptophan and Serotonin Metabolism as Potential Risk Factors in Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM)

PubMed Central

Leitner, Miriam; Fragner, Lena; Danner, Sarah; Holeschofsky, Nastassja; Leitner, Karoline; Tischler, Sonja; Doerfler, Hannes; Bachmann, Gert; Sun, Xiaoliang; Jaeger, Walter; Kautzky-Willer, Alexandra; Weckwerth, Wolfram

2017-01-01

Gestational diabetes mellitus during pregnancy has severe implications for the health of the mother and the fetus. Therefore, early prediction and an understanding of the physiology are an important part of prenatal care. Metabolite profiling is a long established method for the analysis and prediction of metabolic diseases. Here, we applied untargeted and targeted metabolomic protocols to analyze plasma and urine samples of pregnant women with and without GDM. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses of metabolomic profiles revealed markers such as 2-hydroxybutanoic acid (AHBA), 3-hydroxybutanoic acid (BHBA), amino acids valine and alanine, the glucose-alanine-cycle, but also plant-derived compounds like sitosterin as different between control and GDM patients. PLS-DA and VIP analysis revealed tryptophan as a strong variable separating control and GDM. As tryptophan is biotransformed to serotonin we hypothesized whether serotonin metabolism might also be altered in GDM. To test this hypothesis we applied a method for the analysis of serotonin, metabolic intermediates and dopamine in urine by stable isotope dilution direct infusion electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (SID-MS). Indeed, serotonin and related metabolites differ significantly between control and GDM patients confirming the involvement of serotonin metabolism in GDM. Clustered correlation coefficient visualization of metabolite correlation networks revealed the different metabolic signatures between control and GDM patients. Eventually, the combination of selected blood plasma and urine sample metabolites improved the AUC prediction accuracy to 0.99. The detected GDM candidate biomarkers and the related systemic metabolic signatures are discussed in their pathophysiological context. Further studies with larger cohorts are necessary to underpin these observations. PMID:29312952

Application of a Novel Grey Self-Memory Coupling Model to Forecast the Incidence Rates of Two Notifiable Diseases in China: Dysentery and Gonorrhea

PubMed Central

Guo, Xiaojun; Liu, Sifeng; Wu, Lifeng; Tang, Lingling

2014-01-01

Objective In this study, a novel grey self-memory coupling model was developed to forecast the incidence rates of two notifiable infectious diseases (dysentery and gonorrhea); the effectiveness and applicability of this model was assessed based on its ability to predict the epidemiological trend of infectious diseases in China. Methods The linear model, the conventional GM(1,1) model and the GM(1,1) model with self-memory principle (SMGM(1,1) model) were used to predict the incidence rates of the two notifiable infectious diseases based on statistical incidence data. Both simulation accuracy and prediction accuracy were assessed to compare the predictive performances of the three models. The best-fit model was applied to predict future incidence rates. Results Simulation results show that the SMGM(1,1) model can take full advantage of the systematic multi-time historical data and possesses superior predictive performance compared with the linear model and the conventional GM(1,1) model. By applying the novel SMGM(1,1) model, we obtained the possible incidence rates of the two representative notifiable infectious diseases in China. Conclusion The disadvantages of the conventional grey prediction model, such as sensitivity to initial value, can be overcome by the self-memory principle. The novel grey self-memory coupling model can predict the incidence rates of infectious diseases more accurately than the conventional model, and may provide useful references for making decisions involving infectious disease prevention and control. PMID:25546054

Application of a novel grey self-memory coupling model to forecast the incidence rates of two notifiable diseases in China: dysentery and gonorrhea.

PubMed

Guo, Xiaojun; Liu, Sifeng; Wu, Lifeng; Tang, Lingling

2014-01-01

In this study, a novel grey self-memory coupling model was developed to forecast the incidence rates of two notifiable infectious diseases (dysentery and gonorrhea); the effectiveness and applicability of this model was assessed based on its ability to predict the epidemiological trend of infectious diseases in China. The linear model, the conventional GM(1,1) model and the GM(1,1) model with self-memory principle (SMGM(1,1) model) were used to predict the incidence rates of the two notifiable infectious diseases based on statistical incidence data. Both simulation accuracy and prediction accuracy were assessed to compare the predictive performances of the three models. The best-fit model was applied to predict future incidence rates. Simulation results show that the SMGM(1,1) model can take full advantage of the systematic multi-time historical data and possesses superior predictive performance compared with the linear model and the conventional GM(1,1) model. By applying the novel SMGM(1,1) model, we obtained the possible incidence rates of the two representative notifiable infectious diseases in China. The disadvantages of the conventional grey prediction model, such as sensitivity to initial value, can be overcome by the self-memory principle. The novel grey self-memory coupling model can predict the incidence rates of infectious diseases more accurately than the conventional model, and may provide useful references for making decisions involving infectious disease prevention and control.

Wheel slip control with torque blending using linear and nonlinear model predictive control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basrah, M. Sofian; Siampis, Efstathios; Velenis, Efstathios; Cao, Dongpu; Longo, Stefano

2017-11-01

Modern hybrid electric vehicles employ electric braking to recuperate energy during deceleration. However, currently anti-lock braking system (ABS) functionality is delivered solely by friction brakes. Hence regenerative braking is typically deactivated at a low deceleration threshold in case high slip develops at the wheels and ABS activation is required. If blending of friction and electric braking can be achieved during ABS events, there would be no need to impose conservative thresholds for deactivation of regenerative braking and the recuperation capacity of the vehicle would increase significantly. In addition, electric actuators are typically significantly faster responding and would deliver better control of wheel slip than friction brakes. In this work we present a control strategy for ABS on a fully electric vehicle with each wheel independently driven by an electric machine and friction brake independently applied at each wheel. In particular we develop linear and nonlinear model predictive control strategies for optimal performance and enforcement of critical control and state constraints. The capability for real-time implementation of these controllers is assessed and their performance is validated in high fidelity simulation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simpson, L.; Britt, J.; Birkmire, R.

ITN Energy Systems, Inc., and Global Solar Energy, Inc., assisted by NREL's PV Manufacturing R&D program, have continued to advance CIGS production technology by developing trajectory-oriented predictive/control models, fault-tolerance control, control platform development, in-situ sensors, and process improvements. Modeling activities included developing physics-based and empirical models for CIGS and sputter-deposition processing, implementing model-based control, and applying predictive models to the construction of new evaporation sources and for control. Model-based control is enabled by implementing reduced or empirical models into a control platform. Reliability improvement activities include implementing preventive maintenance schedules; detecting failed sensors/equipment and reconfiguring to tinue processing; and systematicmore » development of fault prevention and reconfiguration strategies for the full range of CIGS PV production deposition processes. In-situ sensor development activities have resulted in improved control and indicated the potential for enhanced process status monitoring and control of the deposition processes. Substantial process improvements have been made, including significant improvement in CIGS uniformity, thickness control, efficiency, yield, and throughput. In large measure, these gains have been driven by process optimization, which in turn have been enabled by control and reliability improvements due to this PV Manufacturing R&D program.« less

Organizational Systems Theory and Command and Control Concepts

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

Decentralized C2 • Problem is determinable • Many solutions • Predictable results • Low Risk • Slow feedback loop • Plans: Engineered or designed • C2...of these concepts in the Art of Command and the Science of Control, but lacks a proper model to assist commanders in determining how to correctly...commanders in determining how to correctly apply the concepts based on the operational environment. The paper concludes with a recommendation that the

Intelligent Control of Micro Grid: A Big Data-Based Control Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lu; Wang, Yanping; Liu, Li; Wang, Zhiseng

2018-01-01

In this paper, a structure of micro grid system with big data-based control center is introduced. Energy data from distributed generation, storage and load are analized through the control center, and from the results new trends will be predicted and applied as a feedback to optimize the control. Therefore, each step proceeded in micro grid can be adjusted and orgnized in a form of comprehensive management. A framework of real-time data collection, data processing and data analysis will be proposed by employing big data technology. Consequently, a integrated distributed generation and a optimized energy storage and transmission process can be implemented in the micro grid system.

Modeling and control of plasma rotation and βn for NSTX-U using Neoclassical Toroidal Viscosity and Neutral Beam Injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goumiri, Imene; Rowley, Clarence; Sabbagh, Steven; Gates, David; Gerhardt, Stefan; Boyer, Mark

2015-11-01

A model-based system is presented allowing control of the plasma rotation profile in a magnetically confined toroidal fusion device to maintain plasma stability for long pulse operation. The analysis, using NSTX data and NSTX-U TRANSP simulations, is aimed at controlling plasma rotation using momentum from six injected neutral beams and neoclassical toroidal viscosity generated by three-dimensional applied magnetic fields as actuators. Based on the momentum diffusion and torque balance model obtained, a feedback controller is designed and predictive simulations using TRANSP will be presented. Robustness of the model and the rotation controller will be discussed.

Criticality of Adaptive Control Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patzelt, Felix; Pawelzik, Klaus

2011-12-01

We show, that stabilization of a dynamical system can annihilate observable information about its structure. This mechanism induces critical points as attractors in locally adaptive control. It also reveals, that previously reported criticality in simple controllers is caused by adaptation and not by other controller details. We apply these results to a real-system example: human balancing behavior. A model of predictive adaptive closed-loop control subject to some realistic constraints is introduced and shown to reproduce experimental observations in unprecedented detail. Our results suggests, that observed error distributions in between the Lévy and Gaussian regimes may reflect a nearly optimal compromise between the elimination of random local trends and rare large errors.

A slewing control experiment for flexible structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Juang, J.-N.; Horta, L. G.; Robertshaw, H. H.

1985-01-01

A hardware set-up has been developed to study slewing control for flexible structures including a steel beam and a solar panel. The linear optimal terminal control law is used to design active controllers which are implemented in an analog computer. The objective of this experiment is to demonstrate and verify the dynamics and optimal terminal control laws as applied to flexible structures for large angle maneuver. Actuation is provided by an electric motor while sensing is given by strain gages and angle potentiometer. Experimental measurements are compared with analytical predictions in terms of modal parameters of the system stability matrix and sufficient agreement is achieved to validate the theory.

Data-Driven Nonlinear Subspace Modeling for Prediction and Control of Molten Iron Quality Indices in Blast Furnace Ironmaking

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Ping; Song, Heda; Wang, Hong

Blast furnace (BF) in ironmaking is a nonlinear dynamic process with complicated physical-chemical reactions, where multi-phase and multi-field coupling and large time delay occur during its operation. In BF operation, the molten iron temperature (MIT) as well as Si, P and S contents of molten iron are the most essential molten iron quality (MIQ) indices, whose measurement, modeling and control have always been important issues in metallurgic engineering and automation field. This paper develops a novel data-driven nonlinear state space modeling for the prediction and control of multivariate MIQ indices by integrating hybrid modeling and control techniques. First, to improvemore » modeling efficiency, a data-driven hybrid method combining canonical correlation analysis and correlation analysis is proposed to identify the most influential controllable variables as the modeling inputs from multitudinous factors would affect the MIQ indices. Then, a Hammerstein model for the prediction of MIQ indices is established using the LS-SVM based nonlinear subspace identification method. Such a model is further simplified by using piecewise cubic Hermite interpolating polynomial method to fit the complex nonlinear kernel function. Compared to the original Hammerstein model, this simplified model can not only significantly reduce the computational complexity, but also has almost the same reliability and accuracy for a stable prediction of MIQ indices. Last, in order to verify the practicability of the developed model, it is applied in designing a genetic algorithm based nonlinear predictive controller for multivariate MIQ indices by directly taking the established model as a predictor. Industrial experiments show the advantages and effectiveness of the proposed approach.« less

Impact of rain gauge quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation: an application to the Warwick catchment, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Shulun; Li, Yuan; Pauwels, Valentijn R. N.; Walker, Jeffrey P.

2017-12-01

Rain gauges are widely used to obtain temporally continuous point rainfall records, which are then interpolated into spatially continuous data to force hydrological models. However, rainfall measurements and interpolation procedure are subject to various uncertainties, which can be reduced by applying quality control and selecting appropriate spatial interpolation approaches. Consequently, the integrated impact of rainfall quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation has attracted increased attention but not been fully addressed. This study applies a quality control procedure to the hourly rainfall measurements obtained in the Warwick catchment in eastern Australia. The grid-based daily precipitation from the Australian Water Availability Project was used as a reference. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the daily accumulation of gauged rainfall and the reference data was used to eliminate gauges with significant quality issues. The unrealistic outliers were censored based on a comparison between gauged rainfall and the reference. Four interpolation methods, including the inverse distance weighting (IDW), nearest neighbors (NN), linear spline (LN), and ordinary Kriging (OK), were implemented. The four methods were firstly assessed through a cross-validation using the quality-controlled rainfall data. The impacts of the quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation were then evaluated through a semi-distributed hydrological model. The results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) and Bias of the streamflow simulations were significantly improved after quality control. In the cross-validation, the IDW and OK methods resulted in good interpolation rainfall, while the NN led to the worst result. In term of the impact on hydrological prediction, the IDW led to the most consistent streamflow predictions with the observations, according to the validation at five streamflow-gauged locations. The OK method performed second best according to streamflow predictions at the five gauges in the calibration period (01/01/2007–31/12/2011) and four gauges during the validation period (01/01/2012–30/06/2014). However, NN produced the worst prediction at the outlet of the catchment in the validation period, indicating a low robustness. While the IDW exhibited the best performance in the study catchment in terms of accuracy, robustness and efficiency, more general recommendations on the selection of rainfall interpolation methods need to be further explored.

Impact of rain gauge quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation: an application to the Warwick catchment, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Shulun; Li, Yuan; Pauwels, Valentijn R. N.; Walker, Jeffrey P.

2018-01-01

Rain gauges are widely used to obtain temporally continuous point rainfall records, which are then interpolated into spatially continuous data to force hydrological models. However, rainfall measurements and interpolation procedure are subject to various uncertainties, which can be reduced by applying quality control and selecting appropriate spatial interpolation approaches. Consequently, the integrated impact of rainfall quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation has attracted increased attention but not been fully addressed. This study applies a quality control procedure to the hourly rainfall measurements obtained in the Warwick catchment in eastern Australia. The grid-based daily precipitation from the Australian Water Availability Project was used as a reference. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the daily accumulation of gauged rainfall and the reference data was used to eliminate gauges with significant quality issues. The unrealistic outliers were censored based on a comparison between gauged rainfall and the reference. Four interpolation methods, including the inverse distance weighting (IDW), nearest neighbors (NN), linear spline (LN), and ordinary Kriging (OK), were implemented. The four methods were firstly assessed through a cross-validation using the quality-controlled rainfall data. The impacts of the quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation were then evaluated through a semi-distributed hydrological model. The results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) and Bias of the streamflow simulations were significantly improved after quality control. In the cross-validation, the IDW and OK methods resulted in good interpolation rainfall, while the NN led to the worst result. In term of the impact on hydrological prediction, the IDW led to the most consistent streamflow predictions with the observations, according to the validation at five streamflow-gauged locations. The OK method performed second best according to streamflow predictions at the five gauges in the calibration period (01/01/2007–31/12/2011) and four gauges during the validation period (01/01/2012–30/06/2014). However, NN produced the worst prediction at the outlet of the catchment in the validation period, indicating a low robustness. While the IDW exhibited the best performance in the study catchment in terms of accuracy, robustness and efficiency, more general recommendations on the selection of rainfall interpolation methods need to be further explored.

Assessment of the Uniqueness of Wind Tunnel Strain-Gage Balance Load Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulbrich, N.

2016-01-01

A new test was developed to assess the uniqueness of wind tunnel strain-gage balance load predictions that are obtained from regression models of calibration data. The test helps balance users to gain confidence in load predictions of non-traditional balance designs. It also makes it possible to better evaluate load predictions of traditional balances that are not used as originally intended. The test works for both the Iterative and Non-Iterative Methods that are used in the aerospace testing community for the prediction of balance loads. It is based on the hypothesis that the total number of independently applied balance load components must always match the total number of independently measured bridge outputs or bridge output combinations. This hypothesis is supported by a control volume analysis of the inputs and outputs of a strain-gage balance. It is concluded from the control volume analysis that the loads and bridge outputs of a balance calibration data set must separately be tested for linear independence because it cannot always be guaranteed that a linearly independent load component set will result in linearly independent bridge output measurements. Simple linear math models for the loads and bridge outputs in combination with the variance inflation factor are used to test for linear independence. A highly unique and reversible mapping between the applied load component set and the measured bridge output set is guaranteed to exist if the maximum variance inflation factor of both sets is less than the literature recommended threshold of five. Data from the calibration of a six{component force balance is used to illustrate the application of the new test to real-world data.

Interventions for the prediction and management of chronic postsurgical pain after total knee replacement: systematic review of randomised controlled trials

PubMed Central

Beswick, Andrew D; Wylde, Vikki; Gooberman-Hill, Rachael

2015-01-01

Objectives Total knee replacement can be a successful operation for pain relief. However, 10–34% of patients experience chronic postsurgical pain. Our aim was to synthesise evidence on the effectiveness of applying predictive models to guide preventive treatment, and for interventions in the management of chronic pain after total knee replacement. Setting We conducted a systematic review of randomised controlled trials using appropriate search strategies in the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE and EMBASE from inception to October 2014. No language restrictions were applied. Participants Adult patients receiving total knee replacement. Interventions Predictive models to guide treatment for prevention of chronic pain. Interventions for management of chronic pain. Primary and secondary outcome measures Reporting of specific outcomes was not an eligibility criterion but we sought outcomes relating to pain severity. Results No studies evaluated the effectiveness of predictive models in guiding treatment and improving outcomes after total knee replacement. One study evaluated an intervention for the management of chronic pain. The trial evaluated the use of a botulinum toxin A injection with antinociceptive and anticholinergic activity in 49 patients with chronic postsurgical pain after knee replacement. A single injection provided meaningful pain relief for about 40 days and the authors acknowledged the need for a large trial with repeated injections. No trials of multidisciplinary interventions or individualised treatments were identified. Conclusions Our systematic review highlights a lack of evidence about the effectiveness of prediction and management strategies for chronic postsurgical pain after total knee replacement. As a large number of people are affected by chronic pain after total knee replacement, development of an evidence base about care for these patients should be a research priority. PMID:25967998

Methods and Research for Multi-Component Cutting Force Sensing Devices and Approaches in Machining

PubMed Central

Liang, Qiaokang; Zhang, Dan; Wu, Wanneng; Zou, Kunlin

2016-01-01

Multi-component cutting force sensing systems in manufacturing processes applied to cutting tools are gradually becoming the most significant monitoring indicator. Their signals have been extensively applied to evaluate the machinability of workpiece materials, predict cutter breakage, estimate cutting tool wear, control machine tool chatter, determine stable machining parameters, and improve surface finish. Robust and effective sensing systems with capability of monitoring the cutting force in machine operations in real time are crucial for realizing the full potential of cutting capabilities of computer numerically controlled (CNC) tools. The main objective of this paper is to present a brief review of the existing achievements in the field of multi-component cutting force sensing systems in modern manufacturing. PMID:27854322

Electric field control of magnon-induced magnetization dynamics in multiferroics.

PubMed

Risinggård, Vetle; Kulagina, Iryna; Linder, Jacob

2016-08-24

We consider theoretically the effect of an inhomogeneous magnetoelectric coupling on the magnon-induced dynamics of a ferromagnet. The magnon-mediated magnetoelectric torque affects both the homogeneous magnetization and magnon-driven domain wall motion. In the domains, we predict a reorientation of the magnetization, controllable by the applied electric field, which is almost an order of magnitude larger than that observed in other physical systems via the same mechanism. The applied electric field can also be used to tune the domain wall speed and direction of motion in a linear fashion, producing domain wall velocities several times the zero field velocity. These results show that multiferroic systems offer a promising arena to achieve low-dissipation magnetization rotation and domain wall motion by exciting spin-waves.

Methods and Research for Multi-Component Cutting Force Sensing Devices and Approaches in Machining.

PubMed

Liang, Qiaokang; Zhang, Dan; Wu, Wanneng; Zou, Kunlin

2016-11-16

Multi-component cutting force sensing systems in manufacturing processes applied to cutting tools are gradually becoming the most significant monitoring indicator. Their signals have been extensively applied to evaluate the machinability of workpiece materials, predict cutter breakage, estimate cutting tool wear, control machine tool chatter, determine stable machining parameters, and improve surface finish. Robust and effective sensing systems with capability of monitoring the cutting force in machine operations in real time are crucial for realizing the full potential of cutting capabilities of computer numerically controlled (CNC) tools. The main objective of this paper is to present a brief review of the existing achievements in the field of multi-component cutting force sensing systems in modern manufacturing.

Three dimensional boundary displacement due to stable ideal kink modes excited by external n = 2 magnetic perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willensdorfer, M.; Strumberger, E.; Suttrop, W.; Dunne, M.; Fischer, R.; Birkenmeier, G.; Brida, D.; Cavedon, M.; Denk, S. S.; Igochine, V.; Giannone, L.; Kirk, A.; Kirschner, J.; Medvedeva, A.; Odstrčil, T.; Ryan, D. A.; The ASDEX Upgrade Team; The EUROfusion MST1 Team

2017-11-01

In low-collisionality (ν\\star) scenarios exhibiting mitigation of edge localized mode (ELMs), stable ideal kink modes at the edge are excited by externally applied magnetic perturbation (MP)-fields. In ASDEX Upgrade these modes can cause three-dimensional (3D) boundary displacements up to the centimeter range. These displacements have been measured using toroidally localized high resolution diagnostics and rigidly rotating n=2 MP-fields with various applied poloidal mode spectra. These measurements are compared to non-linear 3D ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equilibria calculated by VMEC. Comprehensive comparisons have been conducted, which consider for instance plasma movements due to the position control system, attenuation due to internal conductors and changes in the edge pressure profiles. VMEC accurately reproduces the amplitude of the displacement and its dependencies on the applied poloidal mode spectra. Quantitative agreement is found around the low field side (LFS) midplane. The response at the plasma top is qualitatively compared. The measured and predicted displacements at the plasma top maximize when the applied spectra is optimized for ELM-mitigation. The predictions from the vacuum modeling generally fails to describe the displacement at the LFS midplane as well as at the plasma top. When the applied mode spectra is set to maximize the displacement, VMEC and the measurements clearly surpass the predictions from the vacuum modeling by a factor of four. Minor disagreements between VMEC and the measurements are discussed. This study underlines the importance of the stable ideal kink modes at the edge for the 3D boundary displacement in scenarios relevant for ELM-mitigation.

Hydrometeorological model for streamflow prediction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tangborn, Wendell V.

1979-01-01

The hydrometeorological model described in this manual was developed to predict seasonal streamflow from water in storage in a basin using streamflow and precipitation data. The model, as described, applies specifically to the Skokomish, Nisqually, and Cowlitz Rivers, in Washington State, and more generally to streams in other regions that derive seasonal runoff from melting snow. Thus the techniques demonstrated for these three drainage basins can be used as a guide for applying this method to other streams. Input to the computer program consists of daily averages of gaged runoff of these streams, and daily values of precipitation collected at Longmire, Kid Valley, and Cushman Dam. Predictions are based on estimates of the absolute storage of water, predominately as snow: storage is approximately equal to basin precipitation less observed runoff. A pre-forecast test season is used to revise the storage estimate and improve the prediction accuracy. To obtain maximum prediction accuracy for operational applications with this model , a systematic evaluation of several hydrologic and meteorologic variables is first necessary. Six input options to the computer program that control prediction accuracy are developed and demonstrated. Predictions of streamflow can be made at any time and for any length of season, although accuracy is usually poor for early-season predictions (before December 1) or for short seasons (less than 15 days). The coefficient of prediction (CP), the chief measure of accuracy used in this manual, approaches zero during the late autumn and early winter seasons and reaches a maximum of about 0.85 during the spring snowmelt season. (Kosco-USGS)

Novel Formulation of Adaptive MPC as EKF Using ANN Model: Multiproduct Semibatch Polymerization Reactor Case Study.

PubMed

Kamesh, Reddi; Rani, Kalipatnapu Yamuna

2017-12-01

In this paper, a novel formulation for nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) has been proposed incorporating the extended Kalman filter (EKF) control concept using a purely data-driven artificial neural network (ANN) model based on measurements for supervisory control. The proposed scheme consists of two modules focusing on online parameter estimation based on past measurements and control estimation over control horizon based on minimizing the deviation of model output predictions from set points along the prediction horizon. An industrial case study for temperature control of a multiproduct semibatch polymerization reactor posed as a challenge problem has been considered as a test bed to apply the proposed ANN-EKFMPC strategy at supervisory level as a cascade control configuration along with proportional integral controller [ANN-EKFMPC with PI (ANN-EKFMPC-PI)]. The proposed approach is formulated incorporating all aspects of MPC including move suppression factor for control effort minimization and constraint-handling capability including terminal constraints. The nominal stability analysis and offset-free tracking capabilities of the proposed controller are proved. Its performance is evaluated by comparison with a standard MPC-based cascade control approach using the same adaptive ANN model. The ANN-EKFMPC-PI control configuration has shown better controller performance in terms of temperature tracking, smoother input profiles, as well as constraint-handling ability compared with the ANN-MPC with PI approach for two products in summer and winter. The proposed scheme is found to be versatile although it is based on a purely data-driven model with online parameter estimation.

An architecture for designing fuzzy logic controllers using neural networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berenji, Hamid R.

1991-01-01

Described here is an architecture for designing fuzzy controllers through a hierarchical process of control rule acquisition and by using special classes of neural network learning techniques. A new method for learning to refine a fuzzy logic controller is introduced. A reinforcement learning technique is used in conjunction with a multi-layer neural network model of a fuzzy controller. The model learns by updating its prediction of the plant's behavior and is related to the Sutton's Temporal Difference (TD) method. The method proposed here has the advantage of using the control knowledge of an experienced operator and fine-tuning it through the process of learning. The approach is applied to a cart-pole balancing system.

A reinforcement learning-based architecture for fuzzy logic control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berenji, Hamid R.

1992-01-01

This paper introduces a new method for learning to refine a rule-based fuzzy logic controller. A reinforcement learning technique is used in conjunction with a multilayer neural network model of a fuzzy controller. The approximate reasoning based intelligent control (ARIC) architecture proposed here learns by updating its prediction of the physical system's behavior and fine tunes a control knowledge base. Its theory is related to Sutton's temporal difference (TD) method. Because ARIC has the advantage of using the control knowledge of an experienced operator and fine tuning it through the process of learning, it learns faster than systems that train networks from scratch. The approach is applied to a cart-pole balancing system.

A chemical reactor network for oxides of nitrogen emission prediction in gas turbine combustor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Nguyen Thanh

2014-06-01

This study presents the use of a new chemical reactor network (CRN) model and non-uniform injectors to predict the NOx emission pollutant in gas turbine combustor. The CRN uses information from Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) combustion analysis with two injectors of CH4-air mixture. The injectors of CH4-air mixture have different lean equivalence ratio, and they control fuel flow to stabilize combustion and adjust combustor's equivalence ratio. Non-uniform injector is applied to improve the burning process of the turbine combustor. The results of the new CRN for NOx prediction in the gas turbine combustor show very good agreement with the experimental data from Korea Electric Power Research Institute.

Numerical Study of Hydrothermal Wave Suppression in Thermocapillary Flow Using a Predictive Control Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muldoon, F. H.

2018-04-01

Hydrothermal waves in flows driven by thermocapillary and buoyancy effects are suppressed by applying a predictive control method. Hydrothermal waves arise in the manufacturing of crystals, including the "open boat" crystal growth process, and lead to undesirable impurities in crystals. The open boat process is modeled using the two-dimensional unsteady incompressible Navier-Stokes equations under the Boussinesq approximation and the linear approximation of the surface thermocapillary force. The flow is controlled by a spatially and temporally varying heat flux density through the free surface. The heat flux density is determined by a conjugate gradient optimization algorithm. The gradient of the objective function with respect to the heat flux density is found by solving adjoint equations derived from the Navier-Stokes ones in the Boussinesq approximation. Special attention is given to heat flux density distributions over small free-surface areas and to the maximum admissible heat flux density.

Learning and Control Model of the Arm for Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyoungsik; Kambara, Hiroyuki; Shin, Duk; Koike, Yasuharu

We propose a learning and control model of the arm for a loading task in which an object is loaded onto one hand with the other hand, in the sagittal plane. Postural control during object interactions provides important points to motor control theories in terms of how humans handle dynamics changes and use the information of prediction and sensory feedback. For the learning and control model, we coupled a feedback-error-learning scheme with an Actor-Critic method used as a feedback controller. To overcome sensory delays, a feedforward dynamics model (FDM) was used in the sensory feedback path. We tested the proposed model in simulation using a two-joint arm with six muscles, each with time delays in muscle force generation. By applying the proposed model to the loading task, we showed that motor commands started increasing, before an object was loaded on, to stabilize arm posture. We also found that the FDM contributes to the stabilization by predicting how the hand changes based on contexts of the object and efferent signals. For comparison with other computational models, we present the simulation results of a minimum-variance model.

Ground-based adaptive optics coronagraphic performance under closed-loop predictive control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Males, Jared R.; Guyon, Olivier

2018-01-01

The discovery of the exoplanet Proxima b highlights the potential for the coming generation of giant segmented mirror telescopes (GSMTs) to characterize terrestrial-potentially habitable-planets orbiting nearby stars with direct imaging. This will require continued development and implementation of optimized adaptive optics systems feeding coronagraphs on the GSMTs. Such development should proceed with an understanding of the fundamental limits imposed by atmospheric turbulence. Here, we seek to address this question with a semianalytic framework for calculating the postcoronagraph contrast in a closed-loop adaptive optics system. We do this starting with the temporal power spectra of the Fourier basis calculated assuming frozen flow turbulence, and then apply closed-loop transfer functions. We include the benefits of a simple predictive controller, which we show could provide over a factor of 1400 gain in raw point spread function contrast at 1 λ/D on bright stars, and more than a factor of 30 gain on an I=7.5 mag star such as Proxima. More sophisticated predictive control can be expected to improve this even further. Assuming a photon-noise limited observing technique such as high-dispersion coronagraphy, these gains in raw contrast will decrease integration times by the same large factors. Predictive control of atmospheric turbulence should therefore be seen as one of the key technologies that will enable ground-based telescopes to characterize terrestrial planets.

Coping with examinations: exploring relationships between students' coping strategies, implicit theories of ability, and perceived control.

PubMed

Doron, Julie; Stephan, Yannick; Boiché, Julie; Le Scanff, Christine

2009-09-01

Relatively little is known about the contribution of students' beliefs regarding the nature of academic ability (i.e. their implicit theories) on strategies used to deal with examinations. This study applied Dweck's socio-cognitive model of achievement motivation to better understand how students cope with examinations. It was expected that students' implicit theories of academic ability would be related to their use of particular coping strategies to deal with exam-related stress. Additionally, it was predicted that perceived control over exams acts as a mediator between implicit theories of ability and coping. Four hundred and ten undergraduate students (263 males, 147 females), aged from 17 to 26 years old (M=19.73, SD=1.46) were volunteers for the present study. Students completed measures of coping, implicit theories of academic ability, and perception of control over academic examinations during regular classes in the first term of the university year. Multiple regression analyses revealed that incremental beliefs of ability significantly and positively predicted active coping, planning, venting of emotions, seeking social support for emotional and instrumental reasons, whereas entity beliefs positively predicted behavioural disengagement and negatively predicted active coping and acceptance. In addition, analyses revealed that entity beliefs of ability were related to coping strategies through students' perception of control over academic examinations. These results confirm that exam-related coping varies as a function of students' beliefs about the nature of academic ability and their perceptions of control when approaching examinations.

Tailored Excitation for Frequency Response Measurement Applied to the X-43A Flight Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baumann, Ethan

2007-01-01

An important aspect of any flight research project is assessing aircraft stability and flight control performance. In some programs this assessment is accomplished through the estimation of the in-flight vehicle frequency response. This estimation has traditionally been a lengthy task requiring separate swept sine inputs for each control axis at a constant flight condition. Hypersonic vehicles spend little time at any specific flight condition while they are decelerating. Accordingly, it is difficult to use traditional methods to calculate the vehicle frequency response and stability margins for this class of vehicle. A technique has been previously developed to significantly reduce the duration of the excitation input by tailoring the input to excite only the frequency range of interest. Reductions in test time were achieved by simultaneously applying tailored excitation signals to multiple control loops, allowing a quick estimate of the frequency response of a particular aircraft. This report discusses the flight results obtained from applying a tailored excitation input to the X-43A longitudinal and lateral-directional control loops during the second and third flights. The frequency responses and stability margins obtained from flight data are compared with preflight predictions.

Calibration and prediction of removal function in magnetorheological finishing.

PubMed

Dai, Yifan; Song, Ci; Peng, Xiaoqiang; Shi, Feng

2010-01-20

A calibrated and predictive model of the removal function has been established based on the analysis of a magnetorheological finishing (MRF) process. By introducing an efficiency coefficient of the removal function, the model can be used to calibrate the removal function in a MRF figuring process and to accurately predict the removal function of a workpiece to be polished whose material is different from the spot part. Its correctness and feasibility have been validated by simulations. Furthermore, applying this model to the MRF figuring experiments, the efficiency coefficient of the removal function can be identified accurately to make the MRF figuring process deterministic and controllable. Therefore, all the results indicate that the calibrated and predictive model of the removal function can improve the finishing determinacy and increase the model applicability in a MRF process.

Advancement in Watershed Modelling Using Dynamic Lateral and Longitudinal Sediment (Dis)connectivity Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahoney, D. T.; al Aamery, N. M. H.; Fox, J.

2017-12-01

The authors find that sediment (dis)connectivity has seldom taken precedence within watershed models, and the present study advances this modeling framework and applies the modeling within a bedrock-controlled system. Sediment (dis)connectivity, defined as the detachment and transport of sediment from source to sink between geomorphic zones, is a major control on sediment transport. Given the availability of high resolution geospatial data, coupling sediment connectivity concepts within sediment prediction models offers an approach to simulate sediment sources and pathways within a watershed's sediment cascade. Bedrock controlled catchments are potentially unique due to the presence of rock outcrops causing longitudinal impedance to sediment transport pathways in turn impacting the longitudinal distribution of the energy gradient responsible for conveying sediment. Therefore, the authors were motivated by the need to formulate a sediment transport model that couples sediment (dis)connectivity knowledge to predict sediment flux for bedrock controlled catchments. A watershed-scale sediment transport model was formulated that incorporates sediment (dis)connectivity knowledge collected via field reconnaissance and predicts sediment flux through coupling with the Partheniades equation and sediment continuity model. Sediment (dis)connectivity was formulated by coupling probabilistic upland lateral connectivity prediction with instream longitudinal connectivity assessments via discretization of fluid and sediment pathways. Flux predictions from the upland lateral connectivity model served as an input to the instream longitudinal connectivity model. Disconnectivity in the instream model was simulated via the discretization of stream reaches due to barriers such as bedrock outcroppings and man-made check dams. The model was tested for a bedrock controlled catchment in Kentucky, USA for which extensive historic water and sediment flux data was available. Predicted sediment flux was validated via sediment flux measurements collected by the authors. Watershed configuration and the distribution of lateral and longitudinal impedances to sediment transport were found to have significant influence on sediment connectivity and thus sediment flux.

Quantitative assessment of a spatial multicriteria model for highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand, and application in Cambodia

PubMed Central

Paul, Mathilde C.; Goutard, Flavie L.; Roulleau, Floriane; Holl, Davun; Thanapongtharm, Weerapong; Roger, François L.; Tran, Annelise

2016-01-01

The Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 (HPAI) virus is now considered endemic in several Asian countries. In Cambodia, the virus has been circulating in the poultry population since 2004, with a dramatic effect on farmers’ livelihoods and public health. In Thailand, surveillance and control are still important to prevent any new H5N1 incursion. Risk mapping can contribute effectively to disease surveillance and control systems, but is a very challenging task in the absence of reliable disease data. In this work, we used spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to produce risk maps for HPAI H5N1 in poultry. We aimed to i) evaluate the performance of the MCDA approach to predict areas suitable for H5N1 based on a dataset from Thailand, comparing the predictive capacities of two sources of a priori knowledge (literature and experts), and ii) apply the best method to produce a risk map for H5N1 in poultry in Cambodia. Our results showed that the expert-based model had a very high predictive capacity in Thailand (AUC = 0.97). Applied in Cambodia, MCDA mapping made it possible to identify hotspots suitable for HPAI H5N1 in the Tonlé Sap watershed, around the cities of Battambang and Kampong Cham, and along the Vietnamese border. PMID:27489997

Improved Broadband Liner Optimization Applied to the Advanced Noise Control Fan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nark, Douglas M.; Jones, Michael G.; Sutliff, Daniel L.; Ayle, Earl; Ichihashi, Fumitaka

2014-01-01

The broadband component of fan noise has grown in relevance with the utilization of increased bypass ratio and advanced fan designs. Thus, while the attenuation of fan tones remains paramount, the ability to simultaneously reduce broadband fan noise levels has become more desirable. This paper describes improvements to a previously established broadband acoustic liner optimization process using the Advanced Noise Control Fan rig as a demonstrator. Specifically, in-duct attenuation predictions with a statistical source model are used to obtain optimum impedance spectra over the conditions of interest. The predicted optimum impedance information is then used with acoustic liner modeling tools to design liners aimed at producing impedance spectra that most closely match the predicted optimum values. Design selection is based on an acceptance criterion that provides the ability to apply increased weighting to specific frequencies and/or operating conditions. Constant-depth, double-degree of freedom and variable-depth, multi-degree of freedom designs are carried through design, fabrication, and testing to validate the efficacy of the design process. Results illustrate the value of the design process in concurrently evaluating the relative costs/benefits of these liner designs. This study also provides an application for demonstrating the integrated use of duct acoustic propagation/radiation and liner modeling tools in the design and evaluation of novel broadband liner concepts for complex engine configurations.

Applying Ajzen's Theory of Planned Behavior to a Study of Online Course Adoption in Public Relations Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knabe, Ann Peru

2012-01-01

This study used Icek Ajzen's Theory of Planned Behavior to research public relations faculty intentions of teaching online. All of the main predictor variables (Subjective Norms, Attitude toward the Act and Perceived Behavioral Control) were statistically significant at varying degrees in predicting intent to teach public relations online. Of the…

Aeroelastic Analysis for Rotorcraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, W.

1982-01-01

Aeroelastic-analysis computer program incorporates an analytical model of aeroelastic behavior of wide range of rotorcraft. Such an analytical model is desirable for both pretest predictions and posttest correlations. Program can be applied in investigations of isolated rotor aeroelasticity and helicopter-flight dynamics and could be employed as basis for more-extensive investigations or aeroelastic behavior, such as automatic control system design.

A Structural Equation Modeling Investigation of the Theory of Planned Behavior Applied to Accounting Professors' Enforcement of Cheating Rules

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brigham, Stephen Scott

2010-01-01

This dissertation concerns factors that influence accounting professors' formal enforcement of academic misconduct rules using the theory of planned behavior ("TPB") as a theoretical framework. The theory posits that intentional behavior, such as enforcement, can be predicted by peoples' perceived behavioral control and…

Predicting the Likelihood of Going to Graduate School: The Importance of Locus of Control

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nordstrom, Cynthia R.; Segrist, Dan J.

2009-01-01

Although many undergraduates apply to graduate school, only a fraction will be admitted. A question arises as to what factors relate to the likelihood of pursuing graduate studies. The current research examined this question by surveying students in a Careers in Psychology course. We hypothesized that GPA, a more internal locus of control…

An In-Process Surface Roughness Recognition System in End Milling Operations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Lieh-Dai; Chen, Joseph C.

2004-01-01

To develop an in-process quality control system, a sensor technique and a decision-making algorithm need to be applied during machining operations. Several sensor techniques have been used in the in-process prediction of quality characteristics in machining operations. For example, an accelerometer sensor can be used to monitor the vibration of…

Thinning guidelines from crown area relationships for young hardwood plantations

Treesearch

Jeffrey W. Stringer; Luke Cecil

2010-01-01

Crown closure in hardwood plantations signals the first opportunity to apply density control treatments such as thinning or release. The proper timing of these treatments is a function of stocking levels and is generally scheduled within several years after initial crown closure. Predicting crown closure for a plantation provides practitioners with the ability to plan...

Estimation of Power Consumption in the Circular Sawing of Stone Based on Tangential Force Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Guoqin; Zhang, Meiqin; Huang, Hui; Guo, Hua; Xu, Xipeng

2018-04-01

Circular sawing is an important method for the processing of natural stone. The ability to predict sawing power is important in the optimisation, monitoring and control of the sawing process. In this paper, a predictive model (PFD) of sawing power, which is based on the tangential force distribution at the sawing contact zone, was proposed, experimentally validated and modified. With regard to the influence of sawing speed on tangential force distribution, the modified PFD (MPFD) performed with high predictive accuracy across a wide range of sawing parameters, including sawing speed. The mean maximum absolute error rate was within 6.78%, and the maximum absolute error rate was within 11.7%. The practicability of predicting sawing power by the MPFD with few initial experimental samples was proved in case studies. On the premise of high sample measurement accuracy, only two samples are required for a fixed sawing speed. The feasibility of applying the MPFD to optimise sawing parameters while lowering the energy consumption of the sawing system was validated. The case study shows that energy use was reduced 28% by optimising the sawing parameters. The MPFD model can be used to predict sawing power, optimise sawing parameters and control energy.

An exploration of the utility of mathematical modeling predicting fatigue from sleep/wake history and circadian phase applied in accident analysis and prevention: the crash of Comair Flight 5191.

PubMed

Pruchnicki, Shawn A; Wu, Lora J; Belenky, Gregory

2011-05-01

On 27 August 2006 at 0606 eastern daylight time (EDT) at Bluegrass Airport in Lexington, KY (LEX), the flight crew of Comair Flight 5191 inadvertently attempted to take off from a general aviation runway too short for their aircraft. The aircraft crashed killing 49 of the 50 people on board. To better understand this accident and to aid in preventing similar accidents, we applied mathematical modeling predicting fatigue-related degradation in performance for the Air Traffic Controller on-duty at the time of the crash. To provide the necessary input to the model, we attempted to estimate circadian phase and sleep/wake histories for the Captain, First Officer, and Air Traffic Controller. We were able to estimate with confidence the circadian phase for each. We were able to estimate with confidence the sleep/wake history for the Air Traffic Controller, but unable to do this for the Captain and First Officer. Using the sleep/wake history estimates for the Air Traffic Controller as input, the mathematical modeling predicted moderate fatigue-related performance degradation at the time of the crash. This prediction was supported by the presence of what appeared to be fatigue-related behaviors in the Air Traffic Controller during the 30 min prior to and in the minutes after the crash. Our modeling results do not definitively establish fatigue in the Air Traffic Controller as a cause of the accident, rather they suggest that had he been less fatigued he might have detected Comair Flight 5191's lining up on the wrong runway. We were not able to perform a similar analysis for the Captain and First Officer because we were not able to estimate with confidence their sleep/wake histories. Our estimates of sleep/wake history and circadian rhythm phase for the Air Traffic Controller might generalize to other air traffic controllers and to flight crew operating in the early morning hours at LEX. Relative to other times of day, the modeling results suggest an elevated risk of fatigue-related error, incident, or accident in the early morning due to truncated sleep from the early start and adverse circadian phase from the time of day. This in turn suggests that fatigue mitigation targeted to early morning starts might reduce fatigue risk. In summary, this study suggests that mathematical models predicting performance from sleep/wake history and circadian phase are (1) useful in retrospective accident analysis provided reliable sleep/wake histories are available for the accident personnel and, (2) useful in prospective fatigue-risk identification, mitigation, and accident prevention. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetically Predicted Body Mass Index and Alzheimer’s Disease Related Phenotypes in Three Large Samples: Mendelian Randomization Analyses

PubMed Central

Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Walter, Stefan; Kauwe, John S.K.; Saykin, Andrew J.; Bennett, David A.; Larson, Eric B.; Crane, Paul K.; Glymour, M. Maria

2015-01-01

Observational research shows that higher body mass index (BMI) increases Alzheimer’s disease (AD) risk, but it is unclear whether this association is causal. We applied genetic variants that predict BMI in Mendelian Randomization analyses, an approach that is not biased by reverse causation or confounding, to evaluate whether higher BMI increases AD risk. We evaluated individual level data from the AD Genetics Consortium (ADGC: 10,079 AD cases and 9,613 controls), the Health and Retirement Study (HRS: 8,403 participants with algorithm-predicted dementia status) and published associations from the Genetic and Environmental Risk for AD consortium (GERAD1: 3,177 AD cases and 7,277 controls). No evidence from individual SNPs or polygenic scores indicated BMI increased AD risk. Mendelian Randomization effect estimates per BMI point (95% confidence intervals) were: ADGC OR=0.95 (0.90, 1.01); HRS OR=1.00 (0.75, 1.32); GERAD1 OR=0.96 (0.87, 1.07). One subscore (cellular processes not otherwise specified) unexpectedly predicted lower AD risk. PMID:26079416

Validation and comparison of clinical prediction rules for invasive candidiasis in intensive care unit patients: a matched case-control study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Due to the increasing prevalence and severity of invasive candidiasis, investigators have developed clinical prediction rules to identify patients who may benefit from antifungal prophylaxis or early empiric therapy. The aims of this study were to validate and compare the Paphitou and Ostrosky-Zeichner clinical prediction rules in ICU patients in a 689-bed academic medical center. Methods We conducted a retrospective matched case-control study from May 2003 to June 2008 to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of each rule. Cases included adults with ICU stays of at least four days and invasive candidiasis matched to three controls by age, gender and ICU admission date. The clinical prediction rules were applied to cases and controls via retrospective chart review to evaluate the success of the rules in predicting invasive candidiasis. Paphitou's rule included diabetes, total parenteral nutrition (TPN) and dialysis with or without antibiotics. Ostrosky-Zeichner's rule included antibiotics or central venous catheter plus at least two of the following: surgery, immunosuppression, TPN, dialysis, corticosteroids and pancreatitis. Conditional logistic regression was performed to evaluate the rules. Discriminative power was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC). Results A total of 352 patients were included (88 cases and 264 controls). The incidence of invasive candidiasis among adults with an ICU stay of at least four days was 2.3%. The prediction rules performed similarly, exhibiting low PPVs (0.041 to 0.054), high NPVs (0.983 to 0.990) and AUC ROCs (0.649 to 0.705). A new prediction rule (Nebraska Medical Center rule) was developed with PPVs, NPVs and AUC ROCs of 0.047, 0.994 and 0.770, respectively. Conclusions Based on low PPVs and high NPVs, the rules are most useful for identifying patients who are not likely to develop invasive candidiasis, potentially preventing unnecessary antifungal use, optimizing patient ICU care and facilitating the design of forthcoming antifungal clinical trials. PMID:21846332

Application of artificial neural networks with backpropagation technique in the financial data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiswal, Jitendra Kumar; Das, Raja

2017-11-01

The propensity of applying neural networks has been proliferated in multiple disciplines for research activities since the past recent decades because of its powerful control with regulatory parameters for pattern recognition and classification. It is also being widely applied for forecasting in the numerous divisions. Since financial data have been readily available due to the involvement of computers and computing systems in the stock market premises throughout the world, researchers have also developed numerous techniques and algorithms to analyze the data from this sector. In this paper we have applied neural network with backpropagation technique to find the data pattern from finance section and prediction for stock values as well.

A prototype methodology combining surface-enhanced laser desorption/ionization protein chip technology and artificial neural network algorithms to predict the chemoresponsiveness of breast cancer cell lines exposed to Paclitaxel and Doxorubicin under in vitro conditions.

PubMed

Mian, Shahid; Ball, Graham; Hornbuckle, Jo; Holding, Finn; Carmichael, James; Ellis, Ian; Ali, Selman; Li, Geng; McArdle, Stephanie; Creaser, Colin; Rees, Robert

2003-09-01

An ability to predict the likelihood of cellular response towards particular chemotherapeutic agents based upon protein expression patterns could facilitate the identification of biological molecules with previously undefined roles in the process of chemoresistance/chemosensitivity, and if robust enough these patterns might also be exploited towards the development of novel predictive assays. To ascertain whether proteomic based molecular profiling in conjunction with artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms could be applied towards the specific recognition of phenotypic patterns between either control or drug treated and chemosensitive or chemoresistant cellular populations, a combined approach involving MALDI-TOF matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry, Ciphergen protein chip technology and ANN algorithms have been applied to specifically identify proteomic 'fingerprints' indicative of treatment regimen for chemosensitive (MCF-7, T47D) and chemoresistant (MCF-7/ADR) breast cancer cell lines following exposure to Doxorubicin or Paclitaxel. The results indicate that proteomic patterns can be identified by ANN algorithms to correctly assign 'class' for treatment regimen (e.g. control/drug treated or chemosensitive/chemoresistant) with a high degree of accuracy using boot-strap statistical validation techniques and that biomarker ion patterns indicative of response/non-response phenotypes are associated with MCF-7 and MCF-7/ADR cells exposed to Doxorubicin. We have also examined the predictive capability of this approach towards MCF-7 and T47D cells to ascertain whether prediction could be made based upon treatment regimen irrespective of cell lineage. Models were identified that could correctly assign class (control or Paclitaxel treatment) for 35/38 samples of an independent dataset. A similar level of predictive capability was also found (> 92%; n = 28) when proteomic patterns derived from the drug resistant cell line MCF-7/ADR were compared against those derived from MCF-7 and T47D as a model system of drug resistant and drug sensitive phenotypes. This approach might offer a potential methodology for predicting the biological behaviour of cancer cells towards particular chemotherapeutics and through protein isolation and sequence identification could result in the identification of biological molecules associated with chemosensitive/chemoresistance tumour phenotypes.

Observability and Controllability of Networks: Symmetry in Representations of Brains and Controllers for Epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiff, Steven

Observability and controllability are essential concepts to the design of predictive observer models and feedback controllers of networked systems. We present a numerical and group representational framework, to quantify the observability and controllability of nonlinear networks with explicit symmetries that shows the connection between symmetries and nonlinear measures of observability and controllability. In addition to the topology of brain networks, we have advanced our ability to represent network nodes within the brain using conservation principles and more accurate biophysics that unifies the dynamics of spikes, seizures, and spreading depression. Lastly, we show how symmetries in controller design can be applied to infectious disease epidemics. NIH Grants 1R01EB014641, 1DP1HD086071.

Strategies for Controlling Non-Transmissible Infection Outbreaks Using a Large Human Movement Data Set

PubMed Central

Hancock, Penelope A.; Rehman, Yasmin; Hall, Ian M.; Edeghere, Obaghe; Danon, Leon; House, Thomas A.; Keeling, Matthew J.

2014-01-01

Prediction and control of the spread of infectious disease in human populations benefits greatly from our growing capacity to quantify human movement behavior. Here we develop a mathematical model for non-transmissible infections contracted from a localized environmental source, informed by a detailed description of movement patterns of the population of Great Britain. The model is applied to outbreaks of Legionnaires' disease, a potentially life-threatening form of pneumonia caused by the bacteria Legionella pneumophilia. We use case-report data from three recent outbreaks that have occurred in Great Britain where the source has already been identified by public health agencies. We first demonstrate that the amount of individual-level heterogeneity incorporated in the movement data greatly influences our ability to predict the source location. The most accurate predictions were obtained using reported travel histories to describe movements of infected individuals, but using detailed simulation models to estimate movement patterns offers an effective fast alternative. Secondly, once the source is identified, we show that our model can be used to accurately determine the population likely to have been exposed to the pathogen, and hence predict the residential locations of infected individuals. The results give rise to an effective control strategy that can be implemented rapidly in response to an outbreak. PMID:25211122

A Topology Control Strategy with Reliability Assurance for Satellite Cluster Networks in Earth Observation

PubMed Central

Chen, Qing; Zhang, Jinxiu; Hu, Ze

2017-01-01

This article investigates the dynamic topology control problem of satellite cluster networks (SCNs) in Earth observation (EO) missions by applying a novel metric of stability for inter-satellite links (ISLs). The properties of the periodicity and predictability of satellites’ relative position are involved in the link cost metric which is to give a selection criterion for choosing the most reliable data routing paths. Also, a cooperative work model with reliability is proposed for the situation of emergency EO missions. Based on the link cost metric and the proposed reliability model, a reliability assurance topology control algorithm and its corresponding dynamic topology control (RAT) strategy are established to maximize the stability of data transmission in the SCNs. The SCNs scenario is tested through some numeric simulations of the topology stability of average topology lifetime and average packet loss rate. Simulation results show that the proposed reliable strategy applied in SCNs significantly improves the data transmission performance and prolongs the average topology lifetime. PMID:28241474

Liquid metal actuator driven by electrochemical manipulation of surface tension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, Loren; Wissman, James; Majidi, Carmel

2017-12-01

We examine the electrocapillary properties of a fluidic actuator composed of a liquid metal droplet that is submerged in electrolytic solution and attached to an elastic beam. The beam deflection is controlled by electrochemically driven changes in the surface energy of the droplet. The metal is a eutectic gallium-indium alloy that is liquid at room temperature and forms an nm-thin Ga2O3 skin when oxidized. The effective surface tension of the droplet changes dramatically with oxidation and reduction, which are reversibly controlled by applying low voltage to the electrolytic bath. Wetting the droplet to two copper pads allows for a controllable tensile force to be developed between the opposing surfaces. We demonstrate the ability to reliably control force by changing the applied oxidizing voltage. Actuator forces and droplet geometries are also examined by performing a computational fluid mechanics simulation using Surface Evolver. The theoretical predictions are in qualitative agreement with the experimental measurements and provide additional confirmation that actuation is driven by surface tension.

A Topology Control Strategy with Reliability Assurance for Satellite Cluster Networks in Earth Observation.

PubMed

Chen, Qing; Zhang, Jinxiu; Hu, Ze

2017-02-23

This article investigates the dynamic topology control problemof satellite cluster networks (SCNs) in Earth observation (EO) missions by applying a novel metric of stability for inter-satellite links (ISLs). The properties of the periodicity and predictability of satellites' relative position are involved in the link cost metric which is to give a selection criterion for choosing the most reliable data routing paths. Also, a cooperative work model with reliability is proposed for the situation of emergency EO missions. Based on the link cost metric and the proposed reliability model, a reliability assurance topology control algorithm and its corresponding dynamic topology control (RAT) strategy are established to maximize the stability of data transmission in the SCNs. The SCNs scenario is tested through some numeric simulations of the topology stability of average topology lifetime and average packet loss rate. Simulation results show that the proposed reliable strategy applied in SCNs significantly improves the data transmission performance and prolongs the average topology lifetime.

Topographic models for predicting malaria vector breeding habitats: potential tools for vector control managers.

PubMed

Nmor, Jephtha C; Sunahara, Toshihiko; Goto, Kensuke; Futami, Kyoko; Sonye, George; Akweywa, Peter; Dida, Gabriel; Minakawa, Noboru

2013-01-16

Identification of malaria vector breeding sites can enhance control activities. Although associations between malaria vector breeding sites and topography are well recognized, practical models that predict breeding sites from topographic information are lacking. We used topographic variables derived from remotely sensed Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) to model the breeding sites of malaria vectors. We further compared the predictive strength of two different DEMs and evaluated the predictability of various habitat types inhabited by Anopheles larvae. Using GIS techniques, topographic variables were extracted from two DEMs: 1) Shuttle Radar Topography Mission 3 (SRTM3, 90-m resolution) and 2) the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission Reflection Radiometer Global DEM (ASTER, 30-m resolution). We used data on breeding sites from an extensive field survey conducted on an island in western Kenya in 2006. Topographic variables were extracted for 826 breeding sites and for 4520 negative points that were randomly assigned. Logistic regression modelling was applied to characterize topographic features of the malaria vector breeding sites and predict their locations. Model accuracy was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). All topographic variables derived from both DEMs were significantly correlated with breeding habitats except for the aspect of SRTM. The magnitude and direction of correlation for each variable were similar in the two DEMs. Multivariate models for SRTM and ASTER showed similar levels of fit indicated by Akaike information criterion (3959.3 and 3972.7, respectively), though the former was slightly better than the latter. The accuracy of prediction indicated by AUC was also similar in SRTM (0.758) and ASTER (0.755) in the training site. In the testing site, both SRTM and ASTER models showed higher AUC in the testing sites than in the training site (0.829 and 0.799, respectively). The predictability of habitat types varied. Drains, foot-prints, puddles and swamp habitat types were most predictable. Both SRTM and ASTER models had similar predictive potentials, which were sufficiently accurate to predict vector habitats. The free availability of these DEMs suggests that topographic predictive models could be widely used by vector control managers in Africa to complement malaria control strategies.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goumiri, I. R.; Rowley, C. W.; Sabbagh, S. A.

In this study, a model-based feedback system is presented enabling the simultaneous control of the stored energy through β n and the toroidal rotation profile of the plasma in National Spherical Torus eXperiment Upgrade device. Actuation is obtained using the momentum from six injected neutral beams and the neoclassical toroidal viscosity generated by applying three-dimensional magnetic fields. Based on a model of the momentum diffusion and torque balance, a feedback controller is designed and tested in closed-loop simulations using TRANSP, a time dependent transport analysis code, in predictive mode. Promising results for the ongoing experimental implementation of controllers are obtained.

Mental stress and psychosocial factors at work in relation to multiple-site musculoskeletal pain: a longitudinal study of kitchen workers.

PubMed

Haukka, Eija; Leino-Arjas, Päivi; Ojajärvi, Anneli; Takala, Esa-Pekka; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Riihimäki, Hilkka

2011-04-01

Among 385 female kitchen workers, we examined (1) whether mental stress and psychosocial factors at work (job control, skill discretion, supervisor support, co-worker relationships, and hurry) predict multiple-site musculoskeletal pain (MSP; defined as pain at ≥ 3 of seven sites) and (2) reversedly, whether MSP predicts these psychosocial factors. Data were collected by questionnaire at 3-month intervals during 2 years. Trajectory analysis was applied. Four trajectories of MSP prevalence emerged: Low, Descending, Ascending, and High. For the psychosocial factors, a two-trajectory model (Ascending or High vs. Low) yielded the best fit. In logistic regression analysis, with the Low MSP trajectory as reference, poor co-worker relationships (odds ratio [OR] 3.9), mental stress (3.1) and hurry (2.1) at baseline predicted belonging to the High MSP trajectory. Also MSP at baseline predicted the trajectories (Ascending vs. Low) of low job control (2.2) and mental stress (3.2). Adverse changes in most psychosocial factors were associated with belonging to the High (ORs between 2.3 and 8.6) and Ascending (2.7-5.5) MSP trajectories. In generalized estimating equations, time-lagged by 3 months, all psychosocial factors but two predicted MSP (1.4-2.1), allowing, e.g. for MSP at baseline, and vice versa, MSP predicted low job control, low supervisor support, and mental stress (1.4-2.0), after adjustment for e.g. the relevant psychosocial factor at baseline. In conclusion, we found that several psychosocial factors predicted MSP and that MSP predicted several psychosocial factors. The results suggest a cumulative process in which adverse psychosocial factors and MSP influence each other. Copyright © 2010 European Federation of International Association for the Study of Pain Chapters. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The utility of MMPI-2-RF substantive scales in prediction of negative treatment outcomes in a community mental health center.

PubMed

Anestis, Joye C; Gottfried, Emily D; Joiner, Thomas E

2015-02-01

This study examined the utility of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2-Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF) substantive scales in the prediction of premature termination and therapy no-shows while controlling for other relevant predictors in a university-based community mental health center, a sample at high risk of both premature termination and no-show appointments. Participants included 457 individuals seeking services from a university-based psychology clinic. Results indicated that Juvenile Conduct Problems (JCP) predicted premature termination and Behavioral/Externalizing Dysfunction and JCP predicted number of no-shows, when accounting for initial severity of illness, personality disorder diagnosis, therapist experience, and other related MMPI-2-RF scales. The MMPI-2-RF Aesthetic-Literary Interests scale also predicted number of no-shows. Recommendations for applying these findings in clinical practice are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens: an Interagency Risk Assessment-model and baseline results.

PubMed

Pouillot, Régis; Gallagher, Daniel; Tang, Jia; Hoelzer, Karin; Kause, Janell; Dennis, Sherri B

2015-01-01

The Interagency Risk Assessment-Listeria monocytogenes (Lm) in Retail Delicatessens provides a scientific assessment of the risk of listeriosis associated with the consumption of ready-to-eat (RTE) foods commonly prepared and sold in the delicatessen (deli) of a retail food store. The quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model simulates the behavior of retail employees in a deli department and tracks the Lm potentially present in this environment and in the food. Bacterial growth, bacterial inactivation (following washing and sanitizing actions), and cross-contamination (from object to object, from food to object, or from object to food) are evaluated through a discrete event modeling approach. The QRA evaluates the risk per serving of deli-prepared RTE food for the susceptible and general population, using a dose-response model from the literature. This QRA considers six separate retail baseline conditions and provides information on the predicted risk of listeriosis for each. Among the baseline conditions considered, the model predicts that (i) retail delis without an environmental source of Lm (such as niches), retail delis without niches that do apply temperature control, and retail delis with niches that do apply temperature control lead to lower predicted risk of listeriosis relative to retail delis with niches and (ii) retail delis with incoming RTE foods that are contaminated with Lm lead to higher predicted risk of listeriosis, directly or through cross-contamination, whether the contaminated incoming product supports growth or not. The risk assessment predicts that listeriosis cases associated with retail delicatessens result from a sequence of key events: (i) the contaminated RTE food supports Lm growth; (ii) improper retail and/or consumer storage temperature or handling results in the growth of Lm on the RTE food; and (iii) the consumer of this RTE food is susceptible to listeriosis. The risk assessment model, therefore, predicts that cross-contamination with Lm at retail predominantly results in sporadic cases.

Self-regulatory skills usage strengthens the relations of self-efficacy for improved eating, exercise, and weight in the severely obese: toward an explanatory model.

PubMed

Annesi, James J

2011-07-01

Lack of success with behavioral weight-management treatments indicates a need for a better understanding of modifiable psychological correlates. Adults with class 2 and 3 obesity (N = 183; Mean(BMI) = 42.0 kg/m(2)) volunteered for a 26-week nutrition and exercise treatment, based on social cognitive theory, that focused on self-efficacy and self-regulation applied to increasing cardiovascular exercise and fruit and vegetable consumption. Improved self-efficacy for controlled eating significantly predicted increased fruit and vegetable consumption (R(2) = .15). Improved self-efficacy for exercise significantly predicted increased exercise (R(2) = .46). When changes in self-regulatory skill usage were stepped into the 2 previous equations, the variances accounted for significantly increased. Increases in fruit and vegetable consumption and exercise significantly predicted weight loss (R(2) = .38). Findings suggest that behavioral theory should guide research on weight-loss treatment, and a focus on self-efficacy and self-regulatory skills applied to specific nutrition and exercise behaviors is warranted.

Symmetry in locomotor central pattern generators and animal gaits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golubitsky, Martin; Stewart, Ian; Buono, Pietro-Luciano; Collins, J. J.

1999-10-01

Animal locomotion is controlled, in part, by a central pattern generator (CPG), which is an intraspinal network of neurons capable of generating a rhythmic output. The spatio-temporal symmetries of the quadrupedal gaits walk, trot and pace lead to plausible assumptions about the symmetries of locomotor CPGs. These assumptions imply that the CPG of a quadruped should consist of eight nominally identical subcircuits, arranged in an essentially unique matter. Here we apply analogous arguments to myriapod CPGs. Analyses based on symmetry applied to these networks lead to testable predictions, including a distinction between primary and secondary gaits, the existence of a new primary gait called `jump', and the occurrence of half-integer wave numbers in myriapod gaits. For bipeds, our analysis also predicts two gaits with the out-of-phase symmetry of the walk and two gaits with the in-phase symmetry of the hop. We present data that support each of these predictions. This work suggests that symmetry can be used to infer a plausible class of CPG network architectures from observed patterns of animal gaits.

Analysis and Control of Pulse-Width Modulated AC to DC Voltage Source Converters.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Rusong

The pulse width modulated AC to DC voltage source converter is comprehensively analyzed in the thesis. A general mathematical model of the converter is first established, which is discontinuous, time-variant and non-linear. The following three techniques are used to obtain closed form solutions: Fourier analysis, transformation of reference frame and small signal linearization. Three models, namely, a steady-state DC model, a low frequency small signal AC model and a high frequency model, are consequently developed. Finally, three solution sets, namely, the steady-state solution, various dynamic transfer functions and the high frequency harmonic components, are obtained from the three models. Two control strategies, the Phase and Amplitude Control (PAC) and a new proposed strategy, Predicted Current Control with a Fixed Switching Frequency (PCFF), are investigated. Based on the transfer functions derived from the above mentioned analysis, regulators for a closed-loop control are designed. A prototype circuit is built to experimentally verify the theoretical predictions. The analysis and experimental results show that both strategies produce nearly sinusoidal line current with unity power factor on the utility side in both rectifying and regenerating operations and concurrently provide a regulated DC output voltage on the load side. However the proposed PCFF control has a faster and improved dynamic response over the PAC control. Moreover it is also easier to be implemented. Therefore, the PCFF control is preferable to the PAC control. As an example of application, a configuration of variable DC supply under PCFF control is proposed. The quasi-optimal dynamic response obtained shows that the PWM AC to DC converter lays the foundation for building a four-quadrant, fast-dynamic system, and the PCFF control is an effective strategy for improving dynamic performances not only as applied to the AC to DC converter, but also as applied to the DC to DC chopper or other circuits.

Electric field control of magnon-induced magnetization dynamics in multiferroics

PubMed Central

Risinggård, Vetle; Kulagina, Iryna; Linder, Jacob

2016-01-01

We consider theoretically the effect of an inhomogeneous magnetoelectric coupling on the magnon-induced dynamics of a ferromagnet. The magnon-mediated magnetoelectric torque affects both the homogeneous magnetization and magnon-driven domain wall motion. In the domains, we predict a reorientation of the magnetization, controllable by the applied electric field, which is almost an order of magnitude larger than that observed in other physical systems via the same mechanism. The applied electric field can also be used to tune the domain wall speed and direction of motion in a linear fashion, producing domain wall velocities several times the zero field velocity. These results show that multiferroic systems offer a promising arena to achieve low-dissipation magnetization rotation and domain wall motion by exciting spin-waves. PMID:27554064

A proof-of-principle simulation for closed-loop control based on preexisting experimental thalamic DBS-enhanced instrumental learning.

PubMed

Wang, Ching-Fu; Yang, Shih-Hung; Lin, Sheng-Huang; Chen, Po-Chuan; Lo, Yu-Chun; Pan, Han-Chi; Lai, Hsin-Yi; Liao, Lun-De; Lin, Hui-Ching; Chen, Hsu-Yan; Huang, Wei-Chen; Huang, Wun-Jhu; Chen, You-Yin

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) has been applied as an effective therapy for treating Parkinson's disease or essential tremor. Several open-loop DBS control strategies have been developed for clinical experiments, but they are limited by short battery life and inefficient therapy. Therefore, many closed-loop DBS control systems have been designed to tackle these problems by automatically adjusting the stimulation parameters via feedback from neural signals, which has been reported to reduce the power consumption. However, when the association between the biomarkers of the model and stimulation is unclear, it is difficult to develop an optimal control scheme for other DBS applications, i.e., DBS-enhanced instrumental learning. Furthermore, few studies have investigated the effect of closed-loop DBS control for cognition function, such as instrumental skill learning, and have been implemented in simulation environments. In this paper, we proposed a proof-of-principle design for a closed-loop DBS system, cognitive-enhancing DBS (ceDBS), which enhanced skill learning based on in vivo experimental data. The ceDBS acquired local field potential (LFP) signal from the thalamic central lateral (CL) nuclei of animals through a neural signal processing system. A strong coupling of the theta oscillation (4-7 Hz) and the learning period was found in the water reward-related lever-pressing learning task. Therefore, the theta-band power ratio, which was the averaged theta band to averaged total band (1-55 Hz) power ratio, could be used as a physiological marker for enhancement of instrumental skill learning. The on-line extraction of the theta-band power ratio was implemented on a field-programmable gate array (FPGA). An autoregressive with exogenous inputs (ARX)-based predictor was designed to construct a CL-thalamic DBS model and forecast the future physiological marker according to the past physiological marker and applied DBS. The prediction could further assist the design of a closed-loop DBS controller. A DBS controller based on a fuzzy expert system was devised to automatically control DBS according to the predicted physiological marker via a set of rules. The simulated experimental results demonstrate that the ceDBS based on the closed-loop control architecture not only reduced power consumption using the predictive physiological marker, but also achieved a desired level of physiological marker through the DBS controller. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Applying Differential Coercion and Social Support Theory to Intimate Partner Violence.

PubMed

Zavala, Egbert; Kurtz, Don L

2017-09-01

A review of the current body of literature on intimate partner violence (IPV) shows that the most common theories used to explain this public health issue are social learning theory, a general theory of crime, general strain theory, or a combination of these perspectives. Other criminological theories have received less empirical attention. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to apply Differential Coercion and Social Support (DCSS) theory to test its capability to explain IPV. Data collected from two public universities ( N = 492) shows that three out of four measures of coercion (i.e., physical abuse, emotional abuse, and anticipated strain) predicted IPV perpetration, whereas social support was not found to be significant. Only two social-psychological deficits (anger and self-control) were found to be positive and significant in predicting IPV. Results, as well as the study's limitations and suggestions for future research, are discussed.

A tide prediction and tide height control system for laboratory mesocosms

PubMed Central

Long, Jeremy D.

2015-01-01

Experimental mesocosm studies of rocky shore and estuarine intertidal systems may benefit from the application of natural tide cycles to better replicate variation in immersion time, water depth, and attendant fluctuations in abiotic and edaphic conditions. Here we describe a stand-alone microcontroller tide prediction open-source software program, coupled with a mechanical tidal elevation control system, which allows continuous adjustment of aquarium water depths in synchrony with local tide cycles. We used this system to monitor the growth of Spartina foliosa marsh cordgrass and scale insect herbivores at three simulated shore elevations in laboratory mesocosms. Plant growth decreased with increasing shore elevation, while scale insect population growth on the plants was not strongly affected by immersion time. This system shows promise for a range of laboratory mesocosm studies where natural tide cycling could impact organism performance or behavior, while the tide prediction system could additionally be utilized in field experiments where treatments need to be applied at certain stages of the tide cycle. PMID:26623195

[Establishing and applying of autoregressive integrated moving average model to predict the incidence rate of dysentery in Shanghai].

PubMed

Li, Jian; Wu, Huan-Yu; Li, Yan-Ting; Jin, Hui-Ming; Gu, Bao-Ke; Yuan, Zheng-An

2010-01-01

To explore the feasibility of establishing and applying of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the incidence rate of dysentery in Shanghai, so as to provide the theoretical basis for prevention and control of dysentery. ARIMA model was established based on the monthly incidence rate of dysentery of Shanghai from 1990 to 2007. The parameters of model were estimated through unconditional least squares method, the structure was determined according to criteria of residual un-correlation and conclusion, and the model goodness-of-fit was determined through Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Bayesian criterion (SBC). The constructed optimal model was applied to predict the incidence rate of dysentery of Shanghai in 2008 and evaluate the validity of model through comparing the difference of predicted incidence rate and actual one. The incidence rate of dysentery in 2010 was predicted by ARIMA model based on the incidence rate from January 1990 to June 2009. The model ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 2)(12) had a good fitness to the incidence rate with both autoregressive coefficient (AR1 = 0.443) during the past time series, moving average coefficient (MA1 = 0.806) and seasonal moving average coefficient (SMA1 = 0.543, SMA2 = 0.321) being statistically significant (P < 0.01). AIC and SBC were 2.878 and 16.131 respectively and predicting error was white noise. The mathematic function was (1-0.443B) (1-B) (1-B(12))Z(t) = (1-0.806B) (1-0.543B(12)) (1-0.321B(2) x 12) micro(t). The predicted incidence rate in 2008 was consistent with the actual one, with the relative error of 6.78%. The predicted incidence rate of dysentery in 2010 based on the incidence rate from January 1990 to June 2009 would be 9.390 per 100 thousand. ARIMA model can be used to fit the changes of incidence rate of dysentery and to forecast the future incidence rate in Shanghai. It is a predicted model of high precision for short-time forecast.

Exploratory Studies in Generalized Predictive Control for Active Gust Load Alleviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kvaternik, Raymond G.; Eure, Kenneth W.; Juang, Jer-Nan

2006-01-01

The results of numerical simulations aimed at assessing the efficacy of Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) for active gust load alleviation using trailing- and leading-edge control surfaces are presented. The equations underlying the method are presented and discussed, including system identification, calculation of control law matrices, and calculation of commands applied to the control effectors. Both embedded and explicit feedforward paths for inclusion of disturbance effects are addressed. Results from two types of simulations are shown. The first used a 3-DOF math model of a mass-spring-dashpot system subject to user-defined external disturbances. The second used open-loop data from a wind-tunnel test in which a wing model was excited by sinusoidal vertical gusts; closed-loop behavior was simulated in post-test calculations. Results obtained from these simulations have been decidedly positive. In particular, results of closed-loop simulations for the wing model showed reductions in root moments by factors as high as 1000, depending on whether the excitation is from a constant- or variable-frequency gust and on the direction of the response.

Longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics of light, twin-engine, propeller-driven airplanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolowicz, C. H.; Yancey, R. B.

1972-01-01

Representative state-of-the-art analytical procedures and design data for predicting the longitudinal static and dynamic stability and control characteristics of light, propeller-driven airplanes are presented. Procedures for predicting drag characteristics are also included. The procedures are applied to a twin-engine, propeller-driven airplane in the clean configuration from zero lift to stall conditions. The calculated characteristics are compared with wind-tunnel and flight data. Included in the comparisons are level-flight trim characteristics, period and damping of the short-period oscillatory mode, and windup-turn characteristics. All calculations are documented.

Linear ideal MHD predictions for n = 2 non-axisymmetric magnetic perturbations on DIII-D

DOE PAGES

Haskey, Shaun R.; Lanctot, Matthew J.; Liu, Y. Q.; ...

2014-02-05

Here, an extensive examination of the plasma response to dominantly n = 2 non-axisymmetric magnetic perturbations (MPs) on the DIII-D tokamak shows the potential to control 3D field interactions by varying the poloidal spectrum of the radial magnetic field. The plasma response is calculated as a function of the applied magnetic field structure and plasma parameters, using the linear magnetohydrodynamic code MARS-F. The ideal, single fluid plasma response is decomposed into two main components: a local pitch-resonant response occurring at rational magnetic flux surfaces, and a global kink response. The efficiency with which the field couples to the total plasmamore » response is determined by the safety factor and the structure of the applied field. In many cases, control of the applied field has a more significant effect than control of plasma parameters, which is of particular interest since it can be modified at will throughout a shot to achieve a desired effect. The presence of toroidal harmonics, other than the dominant n = 2 component, is examined revealing a significant n = 4 component in the perturbations applied by the DIII-D MP coils; however, modeling shows the plasma responses to n = 4 perturbations are substantially smaller than the dominant n = 2 responses in most situations.« less

Pesticide transport with runoff from turf: observations compared with TurfPQ model simulations.

PubMed

Kramer, Kirsten E; Rice, Pamela J; Horgan, Brian P; Rittenhouse, Jennifer L; King, Kevin W

2009-01-01

Pesticides applied to turf grass have been detected in surface waters raising concerns of their effect on water quality and interest in their source, hydrological transport and use of models to predict transport. TurfPQ, a pesticide runoff model for turf grass, predicts pesticide transport but has not been rigorously validated for larger storms. The objective of this study was to determine TurfPQ's ability to accurately predict the transport of pesticides with runoff following more intense precipitation. The study was conducted with creeping bentgrass [Agrostis palustris Huds.] turf managed as a golf course fairway. A pesticide mixture containing dicamba, 2,4-D, MCPP, flutolanil, and chlorpyrifos was applied to six adjacent 24.4 by 6.1 m plots. Controlled rainfall simulations were conducted using a rainfall simulator designed to deliver water droplets similar to natural rain. Runoff flow rates and volume were measured and water samples were collected for analysis of pesticide concentrations. Six simulations yielded 13 events with which to test TurfPQ. Measured mean percentage of applied pesticide recovered in the runoff for dicamba, 2,4-D, MCPP, flutolanil, and chlorpyrifos was 24.6, 20.7, 14.9, 5.9, and 0.8%, respectively. The predicted mean values produced by TurfPQ were 13.7, 15.6, 15.5, 2.5, and 0.2%, respectively. The model produced correlations of r=0.56 and 0.64 for curve number hydrology and measured hydrology, respectively. Comparisons of the model estimates with our field observations indicate that TurfPQ under predicted pesticide runoff during 69.5+/-11.4 mm, 1.9+/-0.2 h, simulated storms.

The effect of applied transducer force on acoustic radiation force impulse quantification within the left lobe of the liver.

PubMed

Porra, Luke; Swan, Hans; Ho, Chien

2015-08-01

Introduction: Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse (ARFI) Quantification measures shear wave velocities (SWVs) within the liver. It is a reliable method for predicting the severity of liver fibrosis and has the potential to assess fibrosis in any part of the liver, but previous research has found ARFI quantification in the right lobe more accurate than in the left lobe. A lack of standardised applied transducer force when performing ARFI quantification in the left lobe of the liver may account for some of this inaccuracy. The research hypothesis of this present study predicted that an increase in applied transducer force would result in an increase in SWVs measured. Methods: ARFI quantification within the left lobe of the liver was performed within a group of healthy volunteers (n = 28). During each examination, each participant was subjected to ARFI quantification at six different levels of transducer force applied to the epigastric abdominal wall. Results: A repeated measures ANOVA test showed that ARFI quantification was significantly affected by applied transducer force (p = 0.002). Significant pairwise comparisons using Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons showed that with an increase in applied transducer force, there was a decrease in SWVs. Conclusion: Applied transducer force has a significant effect on SWVs within the left lobe of the liver and it may explain some of the less accurate and less reliable results in previous studies where transducer force was not taken into consideration. Future studies in the left lobe of the liver should take this into account and control for applied transducer force.

Integrated modeling and analysis of a space-truss article

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stockwell, Alan E.; Perez, Sharon E.; Pappa, Richard S.

1990-01-01

MSC/NASTRAN is being used in the Controls-Structures Interaction (CSI) program at NASA Langley Research Center as a key analytical tool for structural analysis as well as the basis for control law development, closed-loop performance evaluation, and system safety checks. Guest investigators from academia and industry are performing dynamics and control experiments on a flight-like deployable space truss called Mini-Mast to determine the effectiveness of various active-vibration control laws. MSC/NASTRAN was used to calculate natural frequencies and mode shapes below 100 Hz to describe the dynamics of the 20-meter-long lightweight Mini-Mast structure. Gravitational effects contribute significantly to structural stiffness and are accounted for through a two-phase solution in which the differential stiffness matrix is calculated and then used in the eigensolution. Reduced modal models are extracted for control law design and evaluation of closed-loop system performance. Predicted actuator forces from controls simulations are then applied to the extended model to predict member loads and stresses. These pre-test analyses reduce risks associated with the structural integrity of the test article, which is a major concern in closed-loop control experiments due to potential instabilities.

A problem of optimal control and observation for distributed homogeneous multi-agent system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruglikov, Sergey V.

2017-12-01

The paper considers the implementation of a algorithm for controlling a distributed complex of several mobile multi-robots. The concept of a unified information space of the controlling system is applied. The presented information and mathematical models of participants and obstacles, as real agents, and goals and scenarios, as virtual agents, create the base forming the algorithmic and software background for computer decision support system. The controlling scheme assumes the indirect management of the robotic team on the basis of optimal control and observation problem predicting intellectual behavior in a dynamic, hostile environment. A basic content problem is a compound cargo transportation by a group of participants in the case of a distributed control scheme in the terrain with multiple obstacles.

Behavior-Specific Social Support for Healthy Behaviors among African American Church Members: Applying Optimal Matching Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thrasher, James F.; Campbell, Marci Kramish; Oates, Veronica

2004-01-01

This study used data from 850 African Americans to test optimal matching theory (OMT). OMT predicts that (1) the most important dimensions of social support depend on the controllability of the behavior and (2) different network members often provide support across health behaviors. Data were gathered on social support source for physical…

Impact of environmental variables on Dubas bug infestation rate: A case study from the Sultanate of Oman

PubMed Central

Al-Kindi, Khalifa M.; Andrew, Nigel; Welch, Mitchell

2017-01-01

Date palm cultivation is economically important in the Sultanate of Oman, with significant financial investment coming from both the government and from private individuals. However, a global infestation of Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) has impacted the Middle East region, and infestations of date palms have been widespread. In this study, spatial analysis and geostatistical techniques were used to model the spatial distribution of Dubas bug infestations to (a) identify correlations between Dubas bug densities and different environmental variables, and (b) predict the locations of future Dubas bug infestations in Oman. Firstly, we considered individual environmental variables and their correlations with infestation locations. Then, we applied more complex predictive models and regression analysis techniques to investigate the combinations of environmental factors most conducive to the survival and spread of the Dubas bug. Environmental variables including elevation, geology, and distance to drainage pathways were found to significantly affect Dubas bug infestations. In contrast, aspect and hillshade did not significantly impact on Dubas bug infestations. Understanding their distribution and therefore applying targeted controls on their spread is important for effective mapping, control and management (e.g., resource allocation) of Dubas bug infestations. PMID:28558069

Impact of environmental variables on Dubas bug infestation rate: A case study from the Sultanate of Oman.

PubMed

Al-Kindi, Khalifa M; Kwan, Paul; Andrew, Nigel; Welch, Mitchell

2017-01-01

Date palm cultivation is economically important in the Sultanate of Oman, with significant financial investment coming from both the government and from private individuals. However, a global infestation of Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) has impacted the Middle East region, and infestations of date palms have been widespread. In this study, spatial analysis and geostatistical techniques were used to model the spatial distribution of Dubas bug infestations to (a) identify correlations between Dubas bug densities and different environmental variables, and (b) predict the locations of future Dubas bug infestations in Oman. Firstly, we considered individual environmental variables and their correlations with infestation locations. Then, we applied more complex predictive models and regression analysis techniques to investigate the combinations of environmental factors most conducive to the survival and spread of the Dubas bug. Environmental variables including elevation, geology, and distance to drainage pathways were found to significantly affect Dubas bug infestations. In contrast, aspect and hillshade did not significantly impact on Dubas bug infestations. Understanding their distribution and therefore applying targeted controls on their spread is important for effective mapping, control and management (e.g., resource allocation) of Dubas bug infestations.

Determination of the protonation state of the Asp dyad: conventional molecular dynamics versus thermodynamic integration.

PubMed

Huang, Jinfeng; Zhu, Yali; Sun, Bin; Yao, Yuan; Liu, Junjun

2016-03-01

The protonation state of the Asp dyad is important as it can reveal enzymatic mechanisms, and the information this provides can be used in the development of drugs for proteins such as memapsin 2 (BACE-1), HIV-1 protease, and rennin. Conventional molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have been successfully used to determine the preferred protonation state of the Asp dyad. In the present work, we demonstrate that the results obtained from conventional MD simulations can be greatly influenced by the particular force field applied or the values used for control parameters. In principle, free-energy changes between possible protonation states can be used to determine the protonation state. We show that protonation state prediction by the thermodynamic integration (TI) method is insensitive to force field version or to the cutoff for calculating nonbonded interactions (a control parameter). In the present study, the protonation state of the Asp dyad predicted by TI calculations was the same regardless of the force field and cutoff value applied. Contrary to the intuition that conventional MD is more efficient, our results clearly show that the TI method is actually more efficient and more reliable for determining the protonation state of the Asp dyad.

The Recalibrated Sunspot Number: Impact on Solar Cycle Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clette, F.; Lefevre, L.

2017-12-01

Recently and for the first time since their creation, the sunspot number and group number series were entirely revisited and a first fully recalibrated version was officially released in July 2015 by the World Data Center SILSO (Brussels). Those reference long-term series are widely used as input data or as a calibration reference by various solar cycle prediction methods. Therefore, past predictions may now need to be redone using the new sunspot series, and methods already used for predicting cycle 24 will require adaptations before attempting predictions of the next cycles.In order to clarify the nature of the applied changes, we describe the different corrections applied to the sunspot and group number series, which affect extended time periods and can reach up to 40%. While some changes simply involve constant scale factors, other corrections vary with time or follow the solar cycle modulation. Depending on the prediction method and on the selected time interval, this can lead to different responses and biases. Moreover, together with the new series, standard error estimates are also progressively added to the new sunspot numbers, which may help deriving more accurate uncertainties for predicted activity indices. We conclude on the new round of recalibration that is now undertaken in the framework of a broad multi-team collaboration articulated around upcoming ISSI workshops. We outline the future corrections that can still be expected in the future, as part of a permanent upgrading process and quality control. From now on, future sunspot-based predictive models should thus be made more adaptable, and regular updates of predictions should become common practice in order to track periodic upgrades of the sunspot number series, just like it is done when using other modern solar observational series.

Predicting the growth of S i3N4 nanowires by phase-equilibrium-dominated vapor-liquid-solid mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongliang; Cai, Jing; Yang, Lijun; Wu, Qiang; Wang, Xizhang; Hu, Zheng

2017-09-01

Nanomaterial synthesis is experiencing a profound evolution from empirical science ("cook-and-look") to prediction and design, which depends on the deep insight into the growth mechanism. Herein, we report a generalized prediction of the growth of S i3N4 nanowires by nitriding F e28S i72 alloy particles across different phase regions based on our finding of the phase-equilibrium-dominated vapor-liquid-solid (PED-VLS) mechanism. All the predictions about the growth of S i3N4 nanowires, and the associated evolutions of lattice parameters and geometries of the coexisting Fe -Si alloy phases, are experimentally confirmed quantitatively. This progress corroborates the general validity of the PED-VLS mechanism, which could be applied to the design and controllable synthesis of various one-dimensional nanomaterials.

A QSPR model for prediction of diffusion coefficient of non-electrolyte organic compounds in air at ambient condition.

PubMed

Mirkhani, Seyyed Alireza; Gharagheizi, Farhad; Sattari, Mehdi

2012-03-01

Evaluation of diffusion coefficients of pure compounds in air is of great interest for many diverse industrial and air quality control applications. In this communication, a QSPR method is applied to predict the molecular diffusivity of chemical compounds in air at 298.15K and atmospheric pressure. Four thousand five hundred and seventy nine organic compounds from broad spectrum of chemical families have been investigated to propose a comprehensive and predictive model. The final model is derived by Genetic Function Approximation (GFA) and contains five descriptors. Using this dedicated model, we obtain satisfactory results quantified by the following statistical results: Squared Correlation Coefficient=0.9723, Standard Deviation Error=0.003 and Average Absolute Relative Deviation=0.3% for the predicted properties from existing experimental values. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phase Transition between Black and Blue Phosphorenes: A Quantum Monte Carlo Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lesheng; Yao, Yi; Reeves, Kyle; Kanai, Yosuke

Phase transition of the more common black phosphorene to blue phosphorene is of great interest because they are predicted to exhibit unique electronic and optical properties. However, these two phases are predicted to be separated by a rather large energy barrier. In this work, we study the transition pathway between black and blue phosphorenes by using the variable cell nudge elastic band method combined with density functional theory calculation. We show how diffusion quantum Monte Carlo method can be used for determining the energetics of the phase transition and demonstrate the use of two approaches for removing finite-size errors. Finally, we predict how applied stress can be used to control the energetic balance between these two different phases of phosphorene.

Peer group socialization of homophobic attitudes and behavior during adolescence.

PubMed

Poteat, V Paul

2007-01-01

A social developmental framework was applied to test for the socialization of homophobic attitudes and behavior within adolescent peer groups (Grades 7-11; aged 12-17 years). Substantial similarity within and differences across groups were documented. Multilevel models identified a group socializing contextual effect, predicting homophobic attitudes and behavior of individuals within the group 8 months later, even after controlling for the predictive effect of individuals' own previously reported attitudes and behavior. Several group characteristics moderated the extent to which individuals' previously reported attitudes predicted later attitudes. Findings indicate the need to integrate the concurrent assessment of individual and social factors to inform the construction of more comprehensive models of how prejudiced attitudes and behaviors develop and are perpetuated.

Microstructure and rheology of thermoreversible nanoparticle gels.

PubMed

Ramakrishnan, S; Zukoski, C F

2006-08-29

Naïve mode coupling theory is applied to particles interacting with short-range Yukawa attractions. Model results for the location of the gel line and the modulus of the resulting gels are reduced to algebraic equations capturing the effects of the range and strength of attraction. This model is then applied to thermo reversible gels composed of octadecyl silica particles suspended in decalin. The application of the model to the experimental system requires linking the experimental variable controlling strength of attraction, temperature, to the model strength of attraction. With this link, the model predicts temperature and volume fraction dependencies of gelation and modulus with five parameters: particle size, particle volume fraction, overlap volume of surface hairs, and theta temperature. In comparing model predictions with experimental results, we first observe that in these thermal gels there is no evidence of clustering as has been reported in depletion gels. One consequence of this observation is that there are no additional adjustable parameters required to make quantitative comparisons between experimental results and model predictions. Our results indicate that the naïve mode coupling approach taken here in conjunction with a model linking temperature to strength of attraction provides a robust approach for making quantitative predictions of gel mechanical properties. Extension of model predictions to additional experimental systems requires linking experimental variables to the Yukawa strength and range of attraction.

A predictive estimation method for carbon dioxide transport by data-driven modeling with a physically-based data model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Jina; Park, Eungyu; Han, Weon Shik; Kim, Kue-Young; Jun, Seong-Chun; Choung, Sungwook; Yun, Seong-Taek; Oh, Junho; Kim, Hyun-Jun

2017-11-01

In this study, a data-driven method for predicting CO2 leaks and associated concentrations from geological CO2 sequestration is developed. Several candidate models are compared based on their reproducibility and predictive capability for CO2 concentration measurements from the Environment Impact Evaluation Test (EIT) site in Korea. Based on the data mining results, a one-dimensional solution of the advective-dispersive equation for steady flow (i.e., Ogata-Banks solution) is found to be most representative for the test data, and this model is adopted as the data model for the developed method. In the validation step, the method is applied to estimate future CO2 concentrations with the reference estimation by the Ogata-Banks solution, where a part of earlier data is used as the training dataset. From the analysis, it is found that the ensemble mean of multiple estimations based on the developed method shows high prediction accuracy relative to the reference estimation. In addition, the majority of the data to be predicted are included in the proposed quantile interval, which suggests adequate representation of the uncertainty by the developed method. Therefore, the incorporation of a reasonable physically-based data model enhances the prediction capability of the data-driven model. The proposed method is not confined to estimations of CO2 concentration and may be applied to various real-time monitoring data from subsurface sites to develop automated control, management or decision-making systems.

Automatic Prediction of Conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Probable Alzheimer’s Disease using Structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging

PubMed Central

Nho, Kwangsik; Shen, Li; Kim, Sungeun; Risacher, Shannon L.; West, John D.; Foroud, Tatiana; Jack, Clifford R.; Weiner, Michael W.; Saykin, Andrew J.

2010-01-01

Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) is thought to be a precursor to the development of early Alzheimer’s disease (AD). For early diagnosis of AD, the development of a model that is able to predict the conversion of amnestic MCI to AD is challenging. Using automatic whole-brain MRI analysis techniques and pattern classification methods, we developed a model to differentiate AD from healthy controls (HC), and then applied it to the prediction of MCI conversion to AD. Classification was performed using support vector machines (SVMs) together with a SVM-based feature selection method, which selected a set of most discriminating predictors for optimizing prediction accuracy. We obtained 90.5% cross-validation accuracy for classifying AD and HC, and 72.3% accuracy for predicting MCI conversion to AD. These analyses suggest that a classifier trained to separate HC vs. AD has substantial potential for predicting MCI conversion to AD. PMID:21347037

Controls on SOC across space and time: Models with different acclimation schemes make similar spatial predictions but divergent warming predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abramoff, R. Z.; Torn, M. S.; Georgiou, K.; Tang, J.; Riley, W. J.

2017-12-01

Researchers use spatial gradients to estimate long-term ecosystem responses to perturbations. This approach is commonly applied to soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks which change slowly but store the majority of terrestrial carbon. Climate warming may reduce SOC stocks if higher temperatures increase decomposition rates. Yet, it is uncertain how vulnerable SOC is to warming, and whether the same factors - such as organo-mineral associations, climate, or plant inputs - determine SOC stocks across space and time. In order to test the "space for time" concept, we developed two versions of the Substrate-Mineral-Microbe Soil (SuMMS) model - one with microbial temperature acclimation and one without - to analyze observed SOC stocks at 24 sites spanning a wide range of soil types and climate. Both model predictions of SOC were strongly correlated with observations (R2 > 0.9), because mineral sorption capacity was the dominant control over steady-state SOC stock as determined by a Random Forest model. However, the two model versions made fundamentally different predictions of the change in SOC following 5°C soil warming from 2016 to 2100 because the initial mean annual temperature (MAT) was the dominant control over the SOC response. The model with microbial acclimation predicted that SOC would decline 10% at all sites along the transect, while the model with no acclimation predicted large surface SOC losses at high latitude sites and SOC gains at low latitude sites where microbial exoenzymes were already at or near their temperature optimum. These simulations suggest that gradient studies cannot be used to infer site-level responses to warming, because the dominant controls on SOC at steady state (i.e., mineral sorption capacity) are different than the dominant controls on the SOC response to a warming perturbation (i.e., initial MAT, capacity for acclimation).

Disturbed functional connectivity within the left prefrontal cortex and sensorimotor areas predicts impaired cognitive speed in patients with first-episode schizophrenia.

PubMed

Krukow, Paweł; Jonak, Kamil; Karakuła-Juchnowicz, Hanna; Podkowiński, Arkadiusz; Jonak, Katarzyna; Borys, Magdalena; Harciarek, Michał

2018-05-30

This study aimed at identifying abnormal cortico-cortical functional connectivity patterns that could predict cognitive slowing in patients with schizophrenia. A group of thirty-two patients with the first-episode schizophrenia and comparable healthy controls underwent resting-state qEEG and cognitive assessment. Phase Lag Index (PLI) was applied as a connectivity index and the synchronizations were analyzed in six frequencies. Pairs of electrodes were grouped to separately cover frontal, temporal, central, parietal and occipital regions. PLI was calculated for intra-regional connectivity and between-regions connectivity. Computer version processing speed tests were applied to control for possible fluctuations in cognitive efficiency during the performance of the tasks. In the group of patients, in comparison to healthy controls, significantly higher PLI values were recorded in theta frequency, especially in the posterior areas and decreased PLI in low-alpha frequency within the frontal regions. Mean PLI in gamma frequency was also lower in the patients group. Regression analysis showed that lower intra-regional PLI for left frontal cortex and higher PLI within somatosensory cortex in theta band, together with the duration of untreated psychosis, proved to be significant predictors of impaired processing speed in first-episode patients. Our investigation confirmed that disrupted cortico-cortical synchronization contributes to cognitive slowing in schizophrenia. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictability decomposition detects the impairment of brain-heart dynamical networks during sleep disorders and their recovery with treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faes, Luca; Marinazzo, Daniele; Stramaglia, Sebastiano; Jurysta, Fabrice; Porta, Alberto; Giandomenico, Nollo

2016-05-01

This work introduces a framework to study the network formed by the autonomic component of heart rate variability (cardiac process η) and the amplitude of the different electroencephalographic waves (brain processes δ, θ, α, σ, β) during sleep. The framework exploits multivariate linear models to decompose the predictability of any given target process into measures of self-, causal and interaction predictability reflecting respectively the information retained in the process and related to its physiological complexity, the information transferred from the other source processes, and the information modified during the transfer according to redundant or synergistic interaction between the sources. The framework is here applied to the η, δ, θ, α, σ, β time series measured from the sleep recordings of eight severe sleep apnoea-hypopnoea syndrome (SAHS) patients studied before and after long-term treatment with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy, and 14 healthy controls. Results show that the full and self-predictability of η, δ and θ decreased significantly in SAHS compared with controls, and were restored with CPAP for δ and θ but not for η. The causal predictability of η and δ occurred through significantly redundant source interaction during healthy sleep, which was lost in SAHS and recovered after CPAP. These results indicate that predictability analysis is a viable tool to assess the modifications of complexity and causality of the cerebral and cardiac processes induced by sleep disorders, and to monitor the restoration of the neuroautonomic control of these processes during long-term treatment.

Learning to push and learning to move: the adaptive control of contact forces

PubMed Central

Casadio, Maura; Pressman, Assaf; Mussa-Ivaldi, Ferdinando A.

2015-01-01

To be successful at manipulating objects one needs to apply simultaneously well controlled movements and contact forces. We present a computational theory of how the brain may successfully generate a vast spectrum of interactive behaviors by combining two independent processes. One process is competent to control movements in free space and the other is competent to control contact forces against rigid constraints. Free space and rigid constraints are singularities at the boundaries of a continuum of mechanical impedance. Within this continuum, forces and motions occur in “compatible pairs” connected by the equations of Newtonian dynamics. The force applied to an object determines its motion. Conversely, inverse dynamics determine a unique force trajectory from a movement trajectory. In this perspective, we describe motor learning as a process leading to the discovery of compatible force/motion pairs. The learned compatible pairs constitute a local representation of the environment's mechanics. Experiments on force field adaptation have already provided us with evidence that the brain is able to predict and compensate the forces encountered when one is attempting to generate a motion. Here, we tested the theory in the dual case, i.e., when one attempts at applying a desired contact force against a simulated rigid surface. If the surface becomes unexpectedly compliant, the contact point moves as a function of the applied force and this causes the applied force to deviate from its desired value. We found that, through repeated attempts at generating the desired contact force, subjects discovered the unique compatible hand motion. When, after learning, the rigid contact was unexpectedly restored, subjects displayed after effects of learning, consistent with the concurrent operation of a motion control system and a force control system. Together, theory and experiment support a new and broader view of modularity in the coordinated control of forces and motions. PMID:26594163

Predicting clinical diagnosis in Huntington's disease: An imaging polymarker

PubMed Central

Daws, Richard E.; Soreq, Eyal; Johnson, Eileanoir B.; Scahill, Rachael I.; Tabrizi, Sarah J.; Barker, Roger A.; Hampshire, Adam

2018-01-01

Objective Huntington's disease (HD) gene carriers can be identified before clinical diagnosis; however, statistical models for predicting when overt motor symptoms will manifest are too imprecise to be useful at the level of the individual. Perfecting this prediction is integral to the search for disease modifying therapies. This study aimed to identify an imaging marker capable of reliably predicting real‐life clinical diagnosis in HD. Method A multivariate machine learning approach was applied to resting‐state and structural magnetic resonance imaging scans from 19 premanifest HD gene carriers (preHD, 8 of whom developed clinical disease in the 5 years postscanning) and 21 healthy controls. A classification model was developed using cross‐group comparisons between preHD and controls, and within the preHD group in relation to “estimated” and “actual” proximity to disease onset. Imaging measures were modeled individually, and combined, and permutation modeling robustly tested classification accuracy. Results Classification performance for preHDs versus controls was greatest when all measures were combined. The resulting polymarker predicted converters with high accuracy, including those who were not expected to manifest in that time scale based on the currently adopted statistical models. Interpretation We propose that a holistic multivariate machine learning treatment of brain abnormalities in the premanifest phase can be used to accurately identify those patients within 5 years of developing motor features of HD, with implications for prognostication and preclinical trials. Ann Neurol 2018;83:532–543 PMID:29405351

Using a hybrid model to predict solute transfer from initially saturated soil into surface runoff with controlled drainage water.

PubMed

Tong, Juxiu; Hu, Bill X; Yang, Jinzhong; Zhu, Yan

2016-06-01

The mixing layer theory is not suitable for predicting solute transfer from initially saturated soil to surface runoff water under controlled drainage conditions. By coupling the mixing layer theory model with the numerical model Hydrus-1D, a hybrid solute transfer model has been proposed to predict soil solute transfer from an initially saturated soil into surface water, under controlled drainage water conditions. The model can also consider the increasing ponding water conditions on soil surface before surface runoff. The data of solute concentration in surface runoff and drainage water from a sand experiment is used as the reference experiment. The parameters for the water flow and solute transfer model and mixing layer depth under controlled drainage water condition are identified. Based on these identified parameters, the model is applied to another initially saturated sand experiment with constant and time-increasing mixing layer depth after surface runoff, under the controlled drainage water condition with lower drainage height at the bottom. The simulation results agree well with the observed data. Study results suggest that the hybrid model can accurately simulate the solute transfer from initially saturated soil into surface runoff under controlled drainage water condition. And it has been found that the prediction with increasing mixing layer depth is better than that with the constant one in the experiment with lower drainage condition. Since lower drainage condition and deeper ponded water depth result in later runoff start time, more solute sources in the mixing layer are needed for the surface water, and larger change rate results in the increasing mixing layer depth.

Model Predictive Control techniques with application to photovoltaic, DC Microgrid, and a multi-sourced hybrid energy system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shadmand, Mohammad Bagher

Renewable energy sources continue to gain popularity. However, two major limitations exist that prevent widespread adoption: availability and variability of the electricity generated and the cost of the equipment. The focus of this dissertation is Model Predictive Control (MPC) for optimal sized photovoltaic (PV), DC Microgrid, and multi-sourced hybrid energy systems. The main considered applications are: maximum power point tracking (MPPT) by MPC, droop predictive control of DC microgrid, MPC of grid-interaction inverter, MPC of a capacitor-less VAR compensator based on matrix converter (MC). This dissertation firstly investigates a multi-objective optimization technique for a hybrid distribution system. The variability of a high-penetration PV scenario is also studied when incorporated into the microgrid concept. Emerging (PV) technologies have enabled the creation of contoured and conformal PV surfaces; the effect of using non-planar PV modules on variability is also analyzed. The proposed predictive control to achieve maximum power point for isolated and grid-tied PV systems speeds up the control loop since it predicts error before the switching signal is applied to the converter. The low conversion efficiency of PV cells means we want to ensure always operating at maximum possible power point to make the system economical. Thus the proposed MPPT technique can capture more energy compared to the conventional MPPT techniques from same amount of installed solar panel. Because of the MPPT requirement, the output voltage of the converter may vary. Therefore a droop control is needed to feed multiple arrays of photovoltaic systems to a DC bus in microgrid community. Development of a droop control technique by means of predictive control is another application of this dissertation. Reactive power, denoted as Volt Ampere Reactive (VAR), has several undesirable consequences on AC power system network such as reduction in power transfer capability and increase in transmission loss if not controlled appropriately. Inductive loads which operate with lagging power factor consume VARs, thus load compensation techniques by capacitor bank employment locally supply VARs needed by the load. Capacitors are highly unreliable components due to their failure modes and aging inherent. Approximately 60% of power electronic devices failure such as voltage-source inverter based static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) is due to the use of aluminum electrolytic DC capacitors. Therefore, a capacitor-less VAR compensation is desired. This dissertation also investigates a STATCOM capacitor-less reactive power compensation that uses only inductors combined with predictive controlled matrix converter.

A quick reality check for microRNA target prediction.

PubMed

Kast, Juergen

2011-04-01

The regulation of protein abundance by microRNA (miRNA)-mediated repression of mRNA translation is a rapidly growing area of interest in biochemical research. In animal cells, the miRNA seed sequence does not perfectly match that of the mRNA it targets, resulting in a large number of possible miRNA targets and varied extents of repression. Several software tools are available for the prediction of miRNA targets, yet the overlap between them is limited. Jovanovic et al. have developed and applied a targeted, quantitative approach to validate predicted miRNA target proteins. Using a proteome database, they have set up and tested selected reaction monitoring assays for approximately 20% of more than 800 predicted let-7 targets, as well as control genes in Caenorhabditis elegans. Their results demonstrate that such assays can be developed quickly and with relative ease, and applied in a high-throughput setup to verify known and identify novel miRNA targets. They also show, however, that the choice of the biological system and material has a noticeable influence on the frequency, extent and direction of the observed changes. Nonetheless, selected reaction monitoring assays, such as those developed by Jovanovic et al., represent an attractive new tool in the study of miRNA function at the organism level.

Simultaneous feedback control of plasma rotation and stored energy on NSTX-U using neoclassical toroidal viscosity and neutral beam injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goumiri, I. R.; Rowley, C. W.; Sabbagh, S. A.; Gates, D. A.; Boyer, M. D.; Gerhardt, S. P.; Kolemen, E.; Menard, J. E.

2017-05-01

A model-based feedback system is presented enabling the simultaneous control of the stored energy through βn and the toroidal rotation profile of the plasma in National Spherical Torus eXperiment Upgrade device. Actuation is obtained using the momentum from six injected neutral beams and the neoclassical toroidal viscosity generated by applying three-dimensional magnetic fields. Based on a model of the momentum diffusion and torque balance, a feedback controller is designed and tested in closed-loop simulations using TRANSP, a time dependent transport analysis code, in predictive mode. Promising results for the ongoing experimental implementation of controllers are obtained.

Simultaneous feedback control of plasma rotation and stored energy on NSTX-U using neoclassical toroidal viscosity and neutral beam injection

PubMed Central

Goumiri, I. R.; Sabbagh, S. A.; Boyer, M. D.; Gerhardt, S. P.; Kolemen, E.; Menard, J. E.

2017-01-01

A model-based feedback system is presented enabling the simultaneous control of the stored energy through βn and the toroidal rotation profile of the plasma in National Spherical Torus eXperiment Upgrade device. Actuation is obtained using the momentum from six injected neutral beams and the neoclassical toroidal viscosity generated by applying three-dimensional magnetic fields. Based on a model of the momentum diffusion and torque balance, a feedback controller is designed and tested in closed-loop simulations using TRANSP, a time dependent transport analysis code, in predictive mode. Promising results for the ongoing experimental implementation of controllers are obtained. PMID:28435207

Simultaneous feedback control of plasma rotation and stored energy on NSTX-U using neoclassical toroidal viscosity and neutral beam injection

DOE PAGES

Goumiri, I. R.; Rowley, C. W.; Sabbagh, S. A.; ...

2017-02-23

In this study, a model-based feedback system is presented enabling the simultaneous control of the stored energy through β n and the toroidal rotation profile of the plasma in National Spherical Torus eXperiment Upgrade device. Actuation is obtained using the momentum from six injected neutral beams and the neoclassical toroidal viscosity generated by applying three-dimensional magnetic fields. Based on a model of the momentum diffusion and torque balance, a feedback controller is designed and tested in closed-loop simulations using TRANSP, a time dependent transport analysis code, in predictive mode. Promising results for the ongoing experimental implementation of controllers are obtained.

Magnetophoresis of flexible DNA-based dumbbell structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babić, B.; Ghai, R.; Dimitrov, K.

2008-02-01

Controlled movement and manipulation of magnetic micro- and nanostructures using magnetic forces can give rise to important applications in biomedecine, diagnostics, and immunology. We report controlled magnetophoresis and stretching, in aqueous solution, of a DNA-based dumbbell structure containing magnetic and diamagnetic microspheres. The velocity and stretching of the dumbbell were experimentally measured and correlated with a theoretical model based on the forces acting on individual magnetic beads or the entire dumbbell structures. The results show that precise and predictable manipulation of dumbbell structures is achievable and can potentially be applied to immunomagnetic cell separators.

Study of cabin noise control for twin engine general aviation aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaicaitis, R.; Slazak, M.

1982-02-01

An analytical model based on modal analysis was developed to predict the noise transmission into a twin-engine light aircraft. The model was applied to optimize the interior noise to an A-weighted level of 85 dBA. To achieve the required noise attenuation, add-on treatments in the form of honeycomb panels, damping tapes, acoustic blankets, septum barriers and limp trim panels were added to the existing structure. The added weight of the noise control treatment is about 1.1 percent of the total gross take-off weight of the aircraft.

Simulation and control of the technological processes of metal forming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salikhov, Z. G.; Genkin, A. L.

2015-11-01

Theoretical and applied reports in the field of simulation, prediction, and control of the technological processes of metal forming are reviewed. These reports were presented by researchers from Austria, Great Britain, Germany, Italy, Kazakhstan, Canada, the Netherlands, Poland, Russia, the United States, Thailand, Ukraine, Finland, Czech Republic, and Switzerland in international scientific and technical congress on metal forming "OMD-2014. Fundamental Problems. Innovative Materials and Technologies." The advanced innovative trends in MF investigations, which were presented by well-known scientific teams and Russian and foreign companies, are discussed.

Cabin Noise Control for Twin Engine General Aviation Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vaicaitis, R.; Slazak, M.

1982-01-01

An analytical model based on modal analysis was developed to predict the noise transmission into a twin-engine light aircraft. The model was applied to optimize the interior noise to an A-weighted level of 85 dBA. To achieve the required noise attenuation, add-on treatments in the form of honeycomb panels, damping tapes, acoustic blankets, septum barriers and limp trim panels were added to the existing structure. The added weight of the noise control treatment is about 1.1 percent of the total gross take-off weight of the aircraft.

Multiphysics superensemble forecast applied to Mediterranean heavy precipitation situations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vich, M.; Romero, R.

2010-11-01

The high-impact precipitation events that regularly affect the western Mediterranean coastal regions are still difficult to predict with the current prediction systems. Bearing this in mind, this paper focuses on the superensemble technique applied to the precipitation field. Encouraged by the skill shown by a previous multiphysics ensemble prediction system applied to western Mediterranean precipitation events, the superensemble is fed with this ensemble. The training phase of the superensemble contributes to the actual forecast with weights obtained by comparing the past performance of the ensemble members and the corresponding observed states. The non-hydrostatic MM5 mesoscale model is used to run the multiphysics ensemble. Simulations are performed with a 22.5 km resolution domain (Domain 1 in http://mm5forecasts.uib.es) nested in the ECMWF forecast fields. The period between September and December 2001 is used to train the superensemble and a collection of 19~MEDEX cyclones is used to test it. The verification procedure involves testing the superensemble performance and comparing it with that of the poor-man and bias-corrected ensemble mean and the multiphysic EPS control member. The results emphasize the need of a well-behaved training phase to obtain good results with the superensemble technique. A strategy to obtain this improved training phase is already outlined.

Predictive control of intersegmental tarsal movements in an insect.

PubMed

Costalago-Meruelo, Alicia; Simpson, David M; Veres, Sandor M; Newland, Philip L

2017-08-01

In many animals intersegmental reflexes are important for postural and movement control but are still poorly undesrtood. Mathematical methods can be used to model the responses to stimulation, and thus go beyond a simple description of responses to specific inputs. Here we analyse an intersegmental reflex of the foot (tarsus) of the locust hind leg, which raises the tarsus when the tibia is flexed and depresses it when the tibia is extended. A novel method is described to measure and quantify the intersegmental responses of the tarsus to a stimulus to the femoro-tibial chordotonal organ. An Artificial Neural Network, the Time Delay Neural Network, was applied to understand the properties and dynamics of the reflex responses. The aim of this study was twofold: first to develop an accurate method to record and analyse the movement of an appendage and second, to apply methods to model the responses using Artificial Neural Networks. The results show that Artificial Neural Networks provide accurate predictions of tarsal movement when trained with an average reflex response to Gaussian White Noise stimulation compared to linear models. Furthermore, the Artificial Neural Network model can predict the individual responses of each animal and responses to others inputs such as a sinusoid. A detailed understanding of such a reflex response could be included in the design of orthoses or functional electrical stimulation treatments to improve walking in patients with neurological disorders as well as the bio/inspired design of robots.

Applying theory of planned behavior to predict exercise maintenance in sarcopenic elderly.

PubMed

Ahmad, Mohamad Hasnan; Shahar, Suzana; Teng, Nur Islami Mohd Fahmi; Manaf, Zahara Abdul; Sakian, Noor Ibrahim Mohd; Omar, Baharudin

2014-01-01

This study aimed to determine the factors associated with exercise behavior based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) among the sarcopenic elderly people in Cheras, Kuala Lumpur. A total of 65 subjects with mean ages of 67.5±5.2 (men) and 66.1±5.1 (women) years participated in this study. Subjects were divided into two groups: 1) exercise group (n=34; 25 men, nine women); and 2) the control group (n=31; 22 men, nine women). Structural equation modeling, based on TPB components, was applied to determine specific factors that most contribute to and predict actual behavior toward exercise. Based on the TPB's model, attitude (β=0.60) and perceived behavioral control (β=0.24) were the major predictors of intention to exercise among men at the baseline. Among women, the subjective norm (β=0.82) was the major predictor of intention to perform the exercise at the baseline. After 12 weeks, attitude (men's, β=0.68; women's, β=0.24) and subjective norm (men's, β=0.12; women's, β=0.87) were the predictors of the intention to perform the exercise. "Feels healthier with exercise" was the specific factor to improve the intention to perform and to maintain exercise behavior in men (β=0.36) and women (β=0.49). "Not motivated to perform exercise" was the main barrier among men's intention to exercise. The intention to perform the exercise was able to predict actual behavior regarding exercise at the baseline and at 12 weeks of an intervention program. As a conclusion, TPB is a useful model to determine and to predict maintenance of exercise in the sarcopenic elderly.

Applying theory of planned behavior to predict exercise maintenance in sarcopenic elderly

PubMed Central

Ahmad, Mohamad Hasnan; Shahar, Suzana; Teng, Nur Islami Mohd Fahmi; Manaf, Zahara Abdul; Sakian, Noor Ibrahim Mohd; Omar, Baharudin

2014-01-01

This study aimed to determine the factors associated with exercise behavior based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) among the sarcopenic elderly people in Cheras, Kuala Lumpur. A total of 65 subjects with mean ages of 67.5±5.2 (men) and 66.1±5.1 (women) years participated in this study. Subjects were divided into two groups: 1) exercise group (n=34; 25 men, nine women); and 2) the control group (n=31; 22 men, nine women). Structural equation modeling, based on TPB components, was applied to determine specific factors that most contribute to and predict actual behavior toward exercise. Based on the TPB’s model, attitude (β=0.60) and perceived behavioral control (β=0.24) were the major predictors of intention to exercise among men at the baseline. Among women, the subjective norm (β=0.82) was the major predictor of intention to perform the exercise at the baseline. After 12 weeks, attitude (men’s, β=0.68; women’s, β=0.24) and subjective norm (men’s, β=0.12; women’s, β=0.87) were the predictors of the intention to perform the exercise. “Feels healthier with exercise” was the specific factor to improve the intention to perform and to maintain exercise behavior in men (β=0.36) and women (β=0.49). “Not motivated to perform exercise” was the main barrier among men’s intention to exercise. The intention to perform the exercise was able to predict actual behavior regarding exercise at the baseline and at 12 weeks of an intervention program. As a conclusion, TPB is a useful model to determine and to predict maintenance of exercise in the sarcopenic elderly. PMID:25258524

Design and control of a prosthetic leg for above-knee amputees operated in semi-active and active modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jinhyuk; Yoon, Gun-Ha; Kang, Je-Won; Choi, Seung-Bok

2016-08-01

This paper proposes a new prosthesis operated in two different modes; the semi-active and active modes. The semi-active mode is achieved from a flow mode magneto-rheological (MR) damper, while the active mode is obtained from an electronically commutated (EC) motor. The knee joint part of the above knee prosthesis is equipped with the MR damper and EC motor. The MR damper generates reaction force by controlling the field-dependent yield stress of the MR fluid, while the EC motor actively controls the knee joint angle during gait cycle. In this work, the MR damper is designed as a two-end type flow mode mechanism without air chamber for compact size. On other hand, in order to predict desired knee joint angle to be controlled by EC motor, a polynomial prediction function using a statistical method is used. A nonlinear proportional-derivative controller integrated with the computed torque method is then designed and applied to both MR damper and EC motor to control the knee joint angle. It is demonstrated that the desired knee joint angle is well achieved in different walking velocities on the ground ground.

Fingerstroke time estimates for touchscreen-based mobile gaming interaction.

PubMed

Lee, Ahreum; Song, Kiburm; Ryu, Hokyoung Blake; Kim, Jieun; Kwon, Gyuhyun

2015-12-01

The growing popularity of gaming applications and ever-faster mobile carrier networks have called attention to an intriguing issue that is closely related to command input performance. A challenging mirroring game service, which simultaneously provides game service to both PC and mobile phone users, allows them to play games against each other with very different control interfaces. Thus, for efficient mobile game design, it is essential to apply a new predictive model for measuring how potential touch input compares to the PC interfaces. The present study empirically tests the keystroke-level model (KLM) for predicting the time performance of basic interaction controls on the touch-sensitive smartphone interface (i.e., tapping, pointing, dragging, and flicking). A modified KLM, tentatively called the fingerstroke-level model (FLM), is proposed using time estimates on regression models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Autonomous and controlled motivational regulations for multiple health-related behaviors: between- and within-participants analyses

PubMed Central

Hagger, M.S.; Hardcastle, S.J.; Chater, A.; Mallett, C.; Pal, S.; Chatzisarantis, N.L.D.

2014-01-01

Self-determination theory has been applied to the prediction of a number of health-related behaviors with self-determined or autonomous forms of motivation generally more effective in predicting health behavior than non-self-determined or controlled forms. Research has been confined to examining the motivational predictors in single health behaviors rather than comparing effects across multiple behaviors. The present study addressed this gap in the literature by testing the relative contribution of autonomous and controlling motivation to the prediction of a large number of health-related behaviors, and examining individual differences in self-determined motivation as a moderator of the effects of autonomous and controlling motivation on health behavior. Participants were undergraduate students (N = 140) who completed measures of autonomous and controlled motivational regulations and behavioral intention for 20 health-related behaviors at an initial occasion with follow-up behavioral measures taken four weeks later. Path analysis was used to test a process model for each behavior in which motivational regulations predicted behavior mediated by intentions. Some minor idiosyncratic findings aside, between-participants analyses revealed significant effects for autonomous motivational regulations on intentions and behavior across the 20 behaviors. Effects for controlled motivation on intentions and behavior were relatively modest by comparison. Intentions mediated the effect of autonomous motivation on behavior. Within-participants analyses were used to segregate the sample into individuals who based their intentions on autonomous motivation (autonomy-oriented) and controlled motivation (control-oriented). Replicating the between-participants path analyses for the process model in the autonomy- and control-oriented samples did not alter the relative effects of the motivational orientations on intention and behavior. Results provide evidence for consistent effects of autonomous motivation on intentions and behavior across multiple health-related behaviors with little evidence of moderation by individual differences. Findings have implications for the generalizability of proposed effects in self-determination theory and intentions as a mediator of distal motivational factors on health-related behavior. PMID:25750803

Statistics based sampling for controller and estimator design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tenne, Dirk

The purpose of this research is the development of statistical design tools for robust feed-forward/feedback controllers and nonlinear estimators. This dissertation is threefold and addresses the aforementioned topics nonlinear estimation, target tracking and robust control. To develop statistically robust controllers and nonlinear estimation algorithms, research has been performed to extend existing techniques, which propagate the statistics of the state, to achieve higher order accuracy. The so-called unscented transformation has been extended to capture higher order moments. Furthermore, higher order moment update algorithms based on a truncated power series have been developed. The proposed techniques are tested on various benchmark examples. Furthermore, the unscented transformation has been utilized to develop a three dimensional geometrically constrained target tracker. The proposed planar circular prediction algorithm has been developed in a local coordinate framework, which is amenable to extension of the tracking algorithm to three dimensional space. This tracker combines the predictions of a circular prediction algorithm and a constant velocity filter by utilizing the Covariance Intersection. This combined prediction can be updated with the subsequent measurement using a linear estimator. The proposed technique is illustrated on a 3D benchmark trajectory, which includes coordinated turns and straight line maneuvers. The third part of this dissertation addresses the design of controller which include knowledge of parametric uncertainties and their distributions. The parameter distributions are approximated by a finite set of points which are calculated by the unscented transformation. This set of points is used to design robust controllers which minimize a statistical performance of the plant over the domain of uncertainty consisting of a combination of the mean and variance. The proposed technique is illustrated on three benchmark problems. The first relates to the design of prefilters for a linear and nonlinear spring-mass-dashpot system and the second applies a feedback controller to a hovering helicopter. Lastly, the statistical robust controller design is devoted to a concurrent feed-forward/feedback controller structure for a high-speed low tension tape drive.

Design of elevator control surface actuated by LIPCA for small unmanned air vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, K. J.; Setiawan, Hery; Goo, N. S.

2006-03-01

There have been persistent interests in high performance actuators suitable for the actuation of control surfaces of small aircraft and helicopter blades and for active vibration control of aerospace and submarine structures that need high specific force and displacement. What is really needed for active actuation is a large-displacement actuator with a compact source, i.e., much higher strain. A lot of effort has been made to develop compact actuators with large displacement at a high force. One of the representative actuator is LIPCA actuator that was introduced by Yoon et al. The LIPCA design offers the advantages to be applied as actuator for the small aerial vehicle comparing with any other actuators. The weight is one of the main concerns for aerospace field, and since LIPCA has lighter weight than any other piezo-actuator thus it is suitable as actuator for small aircraft control surface. In this paper, a conceptual design of LIPCA-actuated control surface is introduced. A finite element model was constructed and analyzed to predict the deflection angle of the control surface. The hinge moment that produced by the aerodynamic forces was calculated to determine the optimum position of the hinge point, which could produce the deflection as high as possible with reasonable hinge moment. To verify the prediction, a prototype of SUAV (small unmanned air vehicle) control surface was manufactured and tested both in static condition and in the wind tunnel. The prediction and test results showed a good agreement on the control surface deflection angle.

Modeling and control of plasma rotation for NSTX using neoclassical toroidal viscosity and neutral beam injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goumiri, I. R.; Rowley, C. W.; Sabbagh, S. A.; Gates, D. A.; Gerhardt, S. P.; Boyer, M. D.; Andre, R.; Kolemen, E.; Taira, K.

2016-03-01

A model-based feedback system is presented to control plasma rotation in a magnetically confined toroidal fusion device, to maintain plasma stability for long-pulse operation. This research uses experimental measurements from the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) and is aimed at controlling plasma rotation using two different types of actuation: momentum from injected neutral beams and neoclassical toroidal viscosity generated by three-dimensional applied magnetic fields. Based on the data-driven model obtained, a feedback controller is designed, and predictive simulations using the TRANSP plasma transport code show that the controller is able to attain desired plasma rotation profiles given practical constraints on the actuators and the available measurements of rotation.

Modeling and control of plasma rotation for NSTX using neoclassical toroidal viscosity and neutral beam injection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goumiri, I. R.; Rowley, C. W.; Sabbagh, S. A.

2016-02-19

A model-based feedback system is presented to control plasma rotation in a magnetically confined toroidal fusion device, to maintain plasma stability for long-pulse operation. This research uses experimental measurements from the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) and is aimed at controlling plasma rotation using two different types of actuation: momentum from injected neutral beams and neoclassical toroidal viscosity generated by three-dimensional applied magnetic fields. Based on the data-driven model obtained, a feedback controller is designed, and predictive simulations using the TRANSP plasma transport code show that the controller is able to attain desired plasma rotation profiles given practical constraints onmore » the actuators and the available measurements of rotation.« less

Analysis of clinically important factors on the performance of advanced hydraulic, microprocessor-controlled exo-prosthetic knee joints based on 899 trial fittings

PubMed Central

Hahn, Andreas; Lang, Michael; Stuckart, Claudia

2016-01-01

Abstract The objective of this work is to evaluate whether clinically important factors may predict an individual's capability to utilize the functional benefits provided by an advanced hydraulic, microprocessor-controlled exo-prosthetic knee component. This retrospective cross-sectional cohort analysis investigated the data of above knee amputees captured during routine trial fittings. Prosthetists rated the performance indicators showing the functional benefits of the advanced maneuvering capabilities of the device. Subjects were asked to rate their perception. Simple and multiple linear and logistic regression was applied. Data from 899 subjects with demographics typical for the population were evaluated. Ability to vary gait speed, perform toileting, and ascend stairs were identified as the most sensitive performance predictors. Prior C-Leg users showed benefits during advanced maneuvering. Variables showed plausible and meaningful effects, however, could not claim predictive power. Mobility grade showed the largest effect but also failed to be predictive. Clinical parameters such as etiology, age, mobility grade, and others analyzed here do not suffice to predict individual potential. Daily walking distance may pose a threshold value and be part of a predictive instrument. Decisions based solely on single parameters such as mobility grade rating or walking distance seem to be questionable. PMID:27828871

Analysis of clinically important factors on the performance of advanced hydraulic, microprocessor-controlled exo-prosthetic knee joints based on 899 trial fittings.

PubMed

Hahn, Andreas; Lang, Michael; Stuckart, Claudia

2016-11-01

The objective of this work is to evaluate whether clinically important factors may predict an individual's capability to utilize the functional benefits provided by an advanced hydraulic, microprocessor-controlled exo-prosthetic knee component.This retrospective cross-sectional cohort analysis investigated the data of above knee amputees captured during routine trial fittings. Prosthetists rated the performance indicators showing the functional benefits of the advanced maneuvering capabilities of the device. Subjects were asked to rate their perception. Simple and multiple linear and logistic regression was applied.Data from 899 subjects with demographics typical for the population were evaluated. Ability to vary gait speed, perform toileting, and ascend stairs were identified as the most sensitive performance predictors. Prior C-Leg users showed benefits during advanced maneuvering. Variables showed plausible and meaningful effects, however, could not claim predictive power. Mobility grade showed the largest effect but also failed to be predictive.Clinical parameters such as etiology, age, mobility grade, and others analyzed here do not suffice to predict individual potential. Daily walking distance may pose a threshold value and be part of a predictive instrument. Decisions based solely on single parameters such as mobility grade rating or walking distance seem to be questionable.

Petri Net computational modelling of Langerhans cell Interferon Regulatory Factor Network predicts their role in T cell activation.

PubMed

Polak, Marta E; Ung, Chuin Ying; Masapust, Joanna; Freeman, Tom C; Ardern-Jones, Michael R

2017-04-06

Langerhans cells (LCs) are able to orchestrate adaptive immune responses in the skin by interpreting the microenvironmental context in which they encounter foreign substances, but the regulatory basis for this has not been established. Utilising systems immunology approaches combining in silico modelling of a reconstructed gene regulatory network (GRN) with in vitro validation of the predictions, we sought to determine the mechanisms of regulation of immune responses in human primary LCs. The key role of Interferon regulatory factors (IRFs) as controllers of the human Langerhans cell response to epidermal cytokines was revealed by whole transcriptome analysis. Applying Boolean logic we assembled a Petri net-based model of the IRF-GRN which provides molecular pathway predictions for the induction of different transcriptional programmes in LCs. In silico simulations performed after model parameterisation with transcription factor expression values predicted that human LC activation of antigen-specific CD8 T cells would be differentially regulated by epidermal cytokine induction of specific IRF-controlled pathways. This was confirmed by in vitro measurement of IFN-γ production by activated T cells. As a proof of concept, this approach shows that stochastic modelling of a specific immune networks renders transcriptome data valuable for the prediction of functional outcomes of immune responses.

Fault tolerant control of multivariable processes using auto-tuning PID controller.

PubMed

Yu, Ding-Li; Chang, T K; Yu, Ding-Wen

2005-02-01

Fault tolerant control of dynamic processes is investigated in this paper using an auto-tuning PID controller. A fault tolerant control scheme is proposed composing an auto-tuning PID controller based on an adaptive neural network model. The model is trained online using the extended Kalman filter (EKF) algorithm to learn system post-fault dynamics. Based on this model, the PID controller adjusts its parameters to compensate the effects of the faults, so that the control performance is recovered from degradation. The auto-tuning algorithm for the PID controller is derived with the Lyapunov method and therefore, the model predicted tracking error is guaranteed to converge asymptotically. The method is applied to a simulated two-input two-output continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) with various faults, which demonstrate the applicability of the developed scheme to industrial processes.

Convolutional neural networks for seizure prediction using intracranial and scalp electroencephalogram.

PubMed

Truong, Nhan Duy; Nguyen, Anh Duy; Kuhlmann, Levin; Bonyadi, Mohammad Reza; Yang, Jiawei; Ippolito, Samuel; Kavehei, Omid

2018-05-07

Seizure prediction has attracted growing attention as one of the most challenging predictive data analysis efforts to improve the life of patients with drug-resistant epilepsy and tonic seizures. Many outstanding studies have reported great results in providing sensible indirect (warning systems) or direct (interactive neural stimulation) control over refractory seizures, some of which achieved high performance. However, to achieve high sensitivity and a low false prediction rate, many of these studies relied on handcraft feature extraction and/or tailored feature extraction, which is performed for each patient independently. This approach, however, is not generalizable, and requires significant modifications for each new patient within a new dataset. In this article, we apply convolutional neural networks to different intracranial and scalp electroencephalogram (EEG) datasets and propose a generalized retrospective and patient-specific seizure prediction method. We use the short-time Fourier transform on 30-s EEG windows to extract information in both the frequency domain and the time domain. The algorithm automatically generates optimized features for each patient to best classify preictal and interictal segments. The method can be applied to any other patient from any dataset without the need for manual feature extraction. The proposed approach achieves sensitivity of 81.4%, 81.2%, and 75% and a false prediction rate of 0.06/h, 0.16/h, and 0.21/h on the Freiburg Hospital intracranial EEG dataset, the Boston Children's Hospital-MIT scalp EEG dataset, and the American Epilepsy Society Seizure Prediction Challenge dataset, respectively. Our prediction method is also statistically better than an unspecific random predictor for most of the patients in all three datasets. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Control of Ultracold Photodissociation with Magnetic Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, M.; Majewska, I.; Lee, C.-H.; Kondov, S. S.; McGuyer, B. H.; Moszynski, R.; Zelevinsky, T.

2018-01-01

Photodissociation of a molecule produces a spatial distribution of photofragments determined by the molecular structure and the characteristics of the dissociating light. Performing this basic reaction at ultracold temperatures allows its quantum mechanical features to dominate. In this regime, weak applied fields can be used to control the reaction. Here, we photodissociate ultracold diatomic strontium in magnetic fields below 10 G and observe striking changes in photofragment angular distributions. The observations are in excellent agreement with a multichannel quantum chemistry model that includes nonadiabatic effects and predicts strong mixing of partial waves in the photofragment energy continuum. The experiment is enabled by precise quantum-state control of the molecules.

Criteria for Handling Qualities of Military Aircraft.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-01

loop precognitive manner. The pilot is able to apply discrete, step-like inputs which more or less exactly produce the desired aircraft response. Some...While closed loop operation depends upon the frequency domain response characteristics, successful precognitive control requires the time domain...represents the other extreme of the pilot task from the precognitive time response situation. Mich work was done in attempting to predict pilot opinion from

Comprehensive report of aeropropulsion, space propulsion, space power, and space science applications of the Lewis Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

The research activities of the Lewis Research Center for 1988 are summarized. The projects included are within basic and applied technical disciplines essential to aeropropulsion, space propulsion, space power, and space science/applications. These disciplines are materials science and technology, structural mechanics, life prediction, internal computational fluid mechanics, heat transfer, instruments and controls, and space electronics.

Compensating for intersegmental dynamics across the shoulder, elbow, and wrist joints during feedforward and feedback control.

PubMed

Maeda, Rodrigo S; Cluff, Tyler; Gribble, Paul L; Pruszynski, J Andrew

2017-10-01

Moving the arm is complicated by mechanical interactions that arise between limb segments. Such intersegmental dynamics cause torques applied at one joint to produce movement at multiple joints, and in turn, the only way to create single joint movement is by applying torques at multiple joints. We investigated whether the nervous system accounts for intersegmental limb dynamics across the shoulder, elbow, and wrist joints during self-initiated planar reaching and when countering external mechanical perturbations. Our first experiment tested whether the timing and amplitude of shoulder muscle activity account for interaction torques produced during single-joint elbow movements from different elbow initial orientations and over a range of movement speeds. We found that shoulder muscle activity reliably preceded movement onset and elbow agonist activity, and was scaled to compensate for the magnitude of interaction torques arising because of forearm rotation. Our second experiment tested whether elbow muscles compensate for interaction torques introduced by single-joint wrist movements. We found that elbow muscle activity preceded movement onset and wrist agonist muscle activity, and thus the nervous system predicted interaction torques arising because of hand rotation. Our third and fourth experiments tested whether shoulder muscles compensate for interaction torques introduced by different hand orientations during self-initiated elbow movements and to counter mechanical perturbations that caused pure elbow motion. We found that the nervous system predicted the amplitude and direction of interaction torques, appropriately scaling the amplitude of shoulder muscle activity during self-initiated elbow movements and rapid feedback control. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the nervous system robustly accounts for intersegmental dynamics and that the process is similar across the proximal to distal musculature of the arm as well as between feedforward (i.e., self-initiated) and feedback (i.e., reflexive) control. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Intersegmental dynamics complicate the mapping between applied joint torques and the resulting joint motions. We provide evidence that the nervous system robustly predicts these intersegmental limb dynamics across the shoulder, elbow, and wrist joints during reaching and when countering external perturbations. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Use of Feedback in Clinical Prediction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schroeder, Harold E.

1972-01-01

Results indicated that predictive accuracy is greater when feedback is applied to the basis for the prediction than when applied to gut" impressions. Judges forming hypotheses were also able to learn from experience. (Author)

Artificial neural networks applied to flow prediction scenarios in Tomebamba River - Paute watershed, for flood and water quality control and management at City of Cuenca Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cisneros, Felipe; Veintimilla, Jaime

2013-04-01

The main aim of this research is to create a model of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) that allows predicting the flow in Tomebamba River both, at real time and in a certain day of year. As inputs we are using information of rainfall and flow of the stations along of the river. This information is organized in scenarios and each scenario is prepared to a specific area. The information is acquired from the hydrological stations placed in the watershed using an electronic system developed at real time and it supports any kind or brands of this type of sensors. The prediction works very good three days in advance This research includes two ANN models: Back propagation and a hybrid model between back propagation and OWO-HWO. These last two models have been tested in a preliminary research. To validate the results we are using some error indicators such as: MSE, RMSE, EF, CD and BIAS. The results of this research reached high levels of reliability and the level of error are minimal. These predictions are useful for flood and water quality control and management at City of Cuenca Ecuador

Chemoviscosity modeling for thermosetting resins - I

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, T. H.

1984-01-01

A new analytical model for chemoviscosity variation during cure of thermosetting resins was developed. This model is derived by modifying the widely used WLF (Williams-Landel-Ferry) Theory in polymer rheology. Major assumptions involved are that the rate of reaction is diffusion controlled and is linearly inversely proportional to the viscosity of the medium over the entire cure cycle. The resultant first order nonlinear differential equation is solved numerically, and the model predictions compare favorably with experimental data of EPON 828/Agent U obtained on a Rheometrics System 4 Rheometer. The model describes chemoviscosity up to a range of six orders of magnitude under isothermal curing conditions. The extremely non-linear chemoviscosity profile for a dynamic heating cure cycle is predicted as well. The model is also shown to predict changes of glass transition temperature for the thermosetting resin during cure. The physical significance of this prediction is unclear at the present time, however, and further research is required. From the chemoviscosity simulation point of view, the technique of establishing an analytical model as described here is easily applied to any thermosetting resin. The model thus obtained is used in real-time process controls for fabricating composite materials.

Identification Approach to Alleviate Effects of Unmeasured Heat Gains for MIMO Building Thermal Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cai, Jie; Kim, Donghun; Braun, James E.

It is important to have practical methods for constructing a good mathematical model for a building's thermal system for energy audits, retrofit analysis and advanced building controls, e.g. model predictive control. Identification approaches based on semi-physical model structures are popular in building science for those purposes. However conventional gray box identification approaches applied to thermal networks would fail when significant unmeasured heat gains present in estimation data. Although this situation is very common and practical, there has been little research to tackle this issue in building science. This paper presents an overall identification approach to alleviate influences of unmeasured disturbances,more » and hence to obtain improved gray-box building models. The approach was applied to an existing open space building and the performance is demonstrated.« less

A plasma rotation control scheme for NSTX and NSTX-U

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goumiri, Imene

2016-10-01

Plasma rotation has been proven to play a key role in stabilizing large scale instabilities and improving plasma confinement by suppressing micro-turbulence. A model-based feedback system which controls the plasma rotation profile on the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) and its upgrade (NSTX-U) is presented. The first part of this work uses experimental measurements from NSTX as a starting point and models the control of plasma rotation using two different types of actuation: momentum from injected neutral beams and neoclassical toroidal viscosity generated by three-dimensional applied magnetic fields. Whether based on the data-driven model for NSTX or purely predictive modeling for NSTX-U, a reduced order model based feedback controller was designed. Predictive simulations using the TRANSP plasma transport code with the actuator input determined by the controller (controller-in-the-loop) show that the controller drives the plasma's rotation to the desired profiles in less than 100 ms given practical constraints on the actuators and the available real-time rotation measurements. This is the first time that TRANSP has been used as a plasma in simulator in a closed feedback loop test. Another approach to control simultaneously the toroidal rotation profile as well as βN is then shown for NSTX-U. For this case, the neutral beams (actuators) have been augmented in the modeling to match the upgrade version which spread the injection throughout the edge of the plasma. Control robustness in stability and performance has then been tested and used to predict the limits of the resulting controllers when the energy confinement time (τE) and the momentum diffusivity coefficient (χϕ) vary.

Analyses of the most influential factors for vibration monitoring of planetary power transmissions in pellet mills by adaptive neuro-fuzzy technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milovančević, Miloš; Nikolić, Vlastimir; Anđelković, Boban

2017-01-01

Vibration-based structural health monitoring is widely recognized as an attractive strategy for early damage detection in civil structures. Vibration monitoring and prediction is important for any system since it can save many unpredictable behaviors of the system. If the vibration monitoring is properly managed, that can ensure economic and safe operations. Potentials for further improvement of vibration monitoring lie in the improvement of current control strategies. One of the options is the introduction of model predictive control. Multistep ahead predictive models of vibration are a starting point for creating a successful model predictive strategy. For the purpose of this article, predictive models of are created for vibration monitoring of planetary power transmissions in pellet mills. The models were developed using the novel method based on ANFIS (adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system). The aim of this study is to investigate the potential of ANFIS for selecting the most relevant variables for predictive models of vibration monitoring of pellet mills power transmission. The vibration data are collected by PIC (Programmable Interface Controller) microcontrollers. The goal of the predictive vibration monitoring of planetary power transmissions in pellet mills is to indicate deterioration in the vibration of the power transmissions before the actual failure occurs. The ANFIS process for variable selection was implemented in order to detect the predominant variables affecting the prediction of vibration monitoring. It was also used to select the minimal input subset of variables from the initial set of input variables - current and lagged variables (up to 11 steps) of vibration. The obtained results could be used for simplification of predictive methods so as to avoid multiple input variables. It was preferable to used models with less inputs because of overfitting between training and testing data. While the obtained results are promising, further work is required in order to get results that could be directly applied in practice.

Machine learning derived risk prediction of anorexia nervosa.

PubMed

Guo, Yiran; Wei, Zhi; Keating, Brendan J; Hakonarson, Hakon

2016-01-20

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a complex psychiatric disease with a moderate to strong genetic contribution. In addition to conventional genome wide association (GWA) studies, researchers have been using machine learning methods in conjunction with genomic data to predict risk of diseases in which genetics play an important role. In this study, we collected whole genome genotyping data on 3940 AN cases and 9266 controls from the Genetic Consortium for Anorexia Nervosa (GCAN), the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 3 (WTCCC3), Price Foundation Collaborative Group and the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP), and applied machine learning methods for predicting AN disease risk. The prediction performance is measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), indicating how well the model distinguishes cases from unaffected control subjects. Logistic regression model with the lasso penalty technique generated an AUC of 0.693, while Support Vector Machines and Gradient Boosted Trees reached AUC's of 0.691 and 0.623, respectively. Using different sample sizes, our results suggest that larger datasets are required to optimize the machine learning models and achieve higher AUC values. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to assess AN risk based on genome wide genotype level data. Future integration of genomic, environmental and family-based information is likely to improve the AN risk evaluation process, eventually benefitting AN patients and families in the clinical setting.

Can performance on summative evaluation of wax-added dental anatomy projects be better predicted from the combination of supervised and unsupervised practice than from supervised practice alone?

PubMed

Radjaeipour, G; Chambers, D W; Geissberger, M

2016-11-01

The study explored the effects of adding student-directed projects in pre-clinical dental anatomy laboratory on improving the predictability of students' eventual performance on summative evaluation exercises, given the presence of intervening faculty-controlled, in-class practice. All students from four consecutive classes (n = 555) completed wax-added home projects (HP), spending as much or as little time as desired and receiving no faculty feedback; followed by similar laboratory projects (LP) with time limits and feedback; and then summative practical projects (PP) in a timed format but without faculty feedback. Path analysis was used to assess if the student-directed HP had any effect over and above the laboratory projects. Average scores were HP = 0.785 (SD = 0.089); LP = 0.736 (SD = 0.092); and PP = 0.743 (SD = 0.108). Path analysis was applied to show the effects of including a student-controlled home practice exercise on summative exercise performance. HP contributed 57% direct effect and 37% mediated effect through the LP condition. Student-directed home practice provided a measureable improvement in ability to predict eventual performance in summative test cases over and above the predictive contribution of intervening faculty-controlled practice conditions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Real-time prediction of hand trajectory by ensembles of cortical neurons in primates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessberg, Johan; Stambaugh, Christopher R.; Kralik, Jerald D.; Beck, Pamela D.; Laubach, Mark; Chapin, John K.; Kim, Jung; Biggs, S. James; Srinivasan, Mandayam A.; Nicolelis, Miguel A. L.

2000-11-01

Signals derived from the rat motor cortex can be used for controlling one-dimensional movements of a robot arm. It remains unknown, however, whether real-time processing of cortical signals can be employed to reproduce, in a robotic device, the kind of complex arm movements used by primates to reach objects in space. Here we recorded the simultaneous activity of large populations of neurons, distributed in the premotor, primary motor and posterior parietal cortical areas, as non-human primates performed two distinct motor tasks. Accurate real-time predictions of one- and three-dimensional arm movement trajectories were obtained by applying both linear and nonlinear algorithms to cortical neuronal ensemble activity recorded from each animal. In addition, cortically derived signals were successfully used for real-time control of robotic devices, both locally and through the Internet. These results suggest that long-term control of complex prosthetic robot arm movements can be achieved by simple real-time transformations of neuronal population signals derived from multiple cortical areas in primates.

Optimization and real-time control for laser treatment of heterogeneous soft tissues.

PubMed

Feng, Yusheng; Fuentes, David; Hawkins, Andrea; Bass, Jon M; Rylander, Marissa Nichole

2009-01-01

Predicting the outcome of thermotherapies in cancer treatment requires an accurate characterization of the bioheat transfer processes in soft tissues. Due to the biological and structural complexity of tumor (soft tissue) composition and vasculature, it is often very difficult to obtain reliable tissue properties that is one of the key factors for the accurate treatment outcome prediction. Efficient algorithms employing in vivo thermal measurements to determine heterogeneous thermal tissues properties in conjunction with a detailed sensitivity analysis can produce essential information for model development and optimal control. The goals of this paper are to present a general formulation of the bioheat transfer equation for heterogeneous soft tissues, review models and algorithms developed for cell damage, heat shock proteins, and soft tissues with nanoparticle inclusion, and demonstrate an overall computational strategy for developing a laser treatment framework with the ability to perform real-time robust calibrations and optimal control. This computational strategy can be applied to other thermotherapies using the heat source such as radio frequency or high intensity focused ultrasound.

Systematic elucidation and in vivo validation of sequences enriched in hindbrain transcriptional control

PubMed Central

Burzynski, Grzegorz M.; Reed, Xylena; Taher, Leila; Stine, Zachary E.; Matsui, Takeshi; Ovcharenko, Ivan; McCallion, Andrew S.

2012-01-01

Illuminating the primary sequence encryption of enhancers is central to understanding the regulatory architecture of genomes. We have developed a machine learning approach to decipher motif patterns of hindbrain enhancers and identify 40,000 sequences in the human genome that we predict display regulatory control that includes the hindbrain. Consistent with their roles in hindbrain patterning, MEIS1, NKX6-1, as well as HOX and POU family binding motifs contributed strongly to this enhancer model. Predicted hindbrain enhancers are overrepresented at genes expressed in hindbrain and associated with nervous system development, and primarily reside in the areas of open chromatin. In addition, 77 (0.2%) of these predictions are identified as hindbrain enhancers on the VISTA Enhancer Browser, and 26,000 (60%) overlap enhancer marks (H3K4me1 or H3K27ac). To validate these putative hindbrain enhancers, we selected 55 elements distributed throughout our predictions and six low scoring controls for evaluation in a zebrafish transgenic assay. When assayed in mosaic transgenic embryos, 51/55 elements directed expression in the central nervous system. Furthermore, 30/34 (88%) predicted enhancers analyzed in stable zebrafish transgenic lines directed expression in the larval zebrafish hindbrain. Subsequent analysis of sequence fragments selected based upon motif clustering further confirmed the critical role of the motifs contributing to the classifier. Our results demonstrate the existence of a primary sequence code characteristic to hindbrain enhancers. This code can be accurately extracted using machine-learning approaches and applied successfully for de novo identification of hindbrain enhancers. This study represents a critical step toward the dissection of regulatory control in specific neuronal subtypes. PMID:22759862

Resource Management in Constrained Dynamic Situations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seok, Jinwoo

Resource management is considered in this dissertation for systems with limited resources, possibly combined with other system constraints, in unpredictably dynamic environments. Resources may represent fuel, power, capabilities, energy, and so on. Resource management is important for many practical systems; usually, resources are limited, and their use must be optimized. Furthermore, systems are often constrained, and constraints must be satisfied for safe operation. Simplistic resource management can result in poor use of resources and failure of the system. Furthermore, many real-world situations involve dynamic environments. Many traditional problems are formulated based on the assumptions of given probabilities or perfect knowledge of future events. However, in many cases, the future is completely unknown, and information on or probabilities about future events are not available. In other words, we operate in unpredictably dynamic situations. Thus, a method is needed to handle dynamic situations without knowledge of the future, but few formal methods have been developed to address them. Thus, the goal is to design resource management methods for constrained systems, with limited resources, in unpredictably dynamic environments. To this end, resource management is organized hierarchically into two levels: 1) planning, and 2) control. In the planning level, the set of tasks to be performed is scheduled based on limited resources to maximize resource usage in unpredictably dynamic environments. In the control level, the system controller is designed to follow the schedule by considering all the system constraints for safe and efficient operation. Consequently, this dissertation is mainly divided into two parts: 1) planning level design, based on finite state machines, and 2) control level methods, based on model predictive control. We define a recomposable restricted finite state machine to handle limited resource situations and unpredictably dynamic environments for the planning level. To obtain a policy, dynamic programing is applied, and to obtain a solution, limited breadth-first search is applied to the recomposable restricted finite state machine. A multi-function phased array radar resource management problem and an unmanned aerial vehicle patrolling problem are treated using recomposable restricted finite state machines. Then, we use model predictive control for the control level, because it allows constraint handling and setpoint tracking for the schedule. An aircraft power system management problem is treated that aims to develop an integrated control system for an aircraft gas turbine engine and electrical power system using rate-based model predictive control. Our results indicate that at the planning level, limited breadth-first search for recomposable restricted finite state machines generates good scheduling solutions in limited resource situations and unpredictably dynamic environments. The importance of cooperation in the planning level is also verified. At the control level, a rate-based model predictive controller allows good schedule tracking and safe operations. The importance of considering the system constraints and interactions between the subsystems is indicated. For the best resource management in constrained dynamic situations, the planning level and the control level need to be considered together.

Using the Theory of Planned Behavior to predict intention to comply with a food recall message.

PubMed

Freberg, Karen

2013-01-01

The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) has provided considerable insight into the public's intention to comply with many different health-related messages, but has not been applied previously to intention to comply with food safety recommendations and recalls ( Hallman & Cuite, 2010 ). Because food recalls can differ from other health messages in their urgency, timing, and cessation, the applicability of the TPB in this domain is unknown. The research reported here attempted to address this gap using a nationally representative consumer panel. Results showed that, consistent with the theory's predictions, attitudes and subjective norms were predictive of the intention to comply with a food recall message, with attitudes having a much greater impact on intent to comply than subjective norms. Perceived behavioral control failed to predict intention to comply. Implications of these results for health public relations and crisis communications and recommendations for future research were discussed.

Interventions for the prediction and management of chronic postsurgical pain after total knee replacement: systematic review of randomised controlled trials.

PubMed

Beswick, Andrew D; Wylde, Vikki; Gooberman-Hill, Rachael

2015-05-12

Total knee replacement can be a successful operation for pain relief. However, 10-34% of patients experience chronic postsurgical pain. Our aim was to synthesise evidence on the effectiveness of applying predictive models to guide preventive treatment, and for interventions in the management of chronic pain after total knee replacement. We conducted a systematic review of randomised controlled trials using appropriate search strategies in the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE and EMBASE from inception to October 2014. No language restrictions were applied. Adult patients receiving total knee replacement. Predictive models to guide treatment for prevention of chronic pain. Interventions for management of chronic pain. Reporting of specific outcomes was not an eligibility criterion but we sought outcomes relating to pain severity. No studies evaluated the effectiveness of predictive models in guiding treatment and improving outcomes after total knee replacement. One study evaluated an intervention for the management of chronic pain. The trial evaluated the use of a botulinum toxin A injection with antinociceptive and anticholinergic activity in 49 patients with chronic postsurgical pain after knee replacement. A single injection provided meaningful pain relief for about 40 days and the authors acknowledged the need for a large trial with repeated injections. No trials of multidisciplinary interventions or individualised treatments were identified. Our systematic review highlights a lack of evidence about the effectiveness of prediction and management strategies for chronic postsurgical pain after total knee replacement. As a large number of people are affected by chronic pain after total knee replacement, development of an evidence base about care for these patients should be a research priority. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Testing the predictive value of peripheral gene expression for nonremission following citalopram treatment for major depression.

PubMed

Guilloux, Jean-Philippe; Bassi, Sabrina; Ding, Ying; Walsh, Chris; Turecki, Gustavo; Tseng, George; Cyranowski, Jill M; Sibille, Etienne

2015-02-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) in general, and anxious-depression in particular, are characterized by poor rates of remission with first-line treatments, contributing to the chronic illness burden suffered by many patients. Prospective research is needed to identify the biomarkers predicting nonremission prior to treatment initiation. We collected blood samples from a discovery cohort of 34 adult MDD patients with co-occurring anxiety and 33 matched, nondepressed controls at baseline and after 12 weeks (of citalopram plus psychotherapy treatment for the depressed cohort). Samples were processed on gene arrays and group differences in gene expression were investigated. Exploratory analyses suggest that at pretreatment baseline, nonremitting patients differ from controls with gene function and transcription factor analyses potentially related to elevated inflammation and immune activation. In a second phase, we applied an unbiased machine learning prediction model and corrected for model-selection bias. Results show that baseline gene expression predicted nonremission with 79.4% corrected accuracy with a 13-gene model. The same gene-only model predicted nonremission after 8 weeks of citalopram treatment with 76% corrected accuracy in an independent validation cohort of 63 MDD patients treated with citalopram at another institution. Together, these results demonstrate the potential, but also the limitations, of baseline peripheral blood-based gene expression to predict nonremission after citalopram treatment. These results not only support their use in future prediction tools but also suggest that increased accuracy may be obtained with the inclusion of additional predictors (eg, genetics and clinical scales).

Use long short-term memory to enhance Internet of Things for combined sewer overflow monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Duo; Lindholm, Geir; Ratnaweera, Harsha

2018-01-01

Combined sewer overflow causes severe water pollution, urban flooding and reduced treatment plant efficiency. Understanding the behavior of CSO structures is vital for urban flooding prevention and overflow control. Neural networks have been extensively applied in water resource related fields. In this study, we collect data from an Internet of Things monitoring CSO structure and build different neural network models for simulating and predicting the water level of the CSO structure. Through a comparison of four different neural networks, namely multilayer perceptron (MLP), wavelet neural network (WNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU), the LSTM and GRU present superior capabilities for multi-step-ahead time series prediction. Furthermore, GRU achieves prediction performances similar to LSTM with a quicker learning curve.

Dynamics of a linear system coupled to a chain of light nonlinear oscillators analyzed through a continuous approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charlemagne, S.; Ture Savadkoohi, A.; Lamarque, C.-H.

2018-07-01

The continuous approximation is used in this work to describe the dynamics of a nonlinear chain of light oscillators coupled to a linear main system. A general methodology is applied to an example where the chain has local nonlinear restoring forces. The slow invariant manifold is detected at fast time scale. At slow time scale, equilibrium and singular points are sought around this manifold in order to predict periodic regimes and strongly modulated responses of the system. Analytical predictions are in good accordance with numerical results and represent a potent tool for designing nonlinear chains for passive control purposes.

Applications of system identification methods to the prediction of helicopter stability, control and handling characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Padfield, G. D.; Duval, R. K.

1982-01-01

A set of results on rotorcraft system identification is described. Flight measurements collected on an experimental Puma helicopter are reviewed and some notable characteristics highlighted. Following a brief review of previous work in rotorcraft system identification, the results of state estimation and model structure estimation processes applied to the Puma data are presented. The results, which were obtained using NASA developed software, are compared with theoretical predictions of roll, yaw and pitching moment derivatives for a 6 degree of freedom model structure. Anomalies are reported. The theoretical methods used are described. A framework for reduced order modelling is outlined.

Meta-analysis reveals that seed-applied neonicotinoids and pyrethroids have similar negative effects on abundance of arthropod natural enemies

PubMed Central

Tooker, John F.

2016-01-01

Background Seed-applied neonicotinoids are widely used in agriculture, yet their effects on non-target species remain incompletely understood. One important group of non-target species is arthropod natural enemies (predators and parasitoids), which contribute considerably to suppression of crop pests. We hypothesized that seed-applied neonicotinoids reduce natural-enemy abundance, but not as strongly as alternative insecticide options such as soil- and foliar-applied pyrethroids. Furthermore we hypothesized that seed-applied neonicotinoids affect natural enemies through a combination of toxin exposure and prey scarcity. Methods To test our hypotheses, we compiled datasets comprising observations from randomized field studies in North America and Europe that compared natural-enemy abundance in plots that were planted with seed-applied neonicotinoids to control plots that were either (1) managed without insecticides (20 studies, 56 site-years, 607 observations) or (2) managed with pyrethroid insecticides (eight studies, 15 site-years, 384 observations). Using the effect size Hedge’s d as the response variable, we used meta-regression to estimate the overall effect of seed-applied neonicotinoids on natural-enemy abundance and to test the influence of potential moderating factors. Results Seed-applied neonicotinoids reduced the abundance of arthropod natural enemies compared to untreated controls (d = −0.30 ± 0.10 [95% confidence interval]), and as predicted under toxin exposure this effect was stronger for insect than for non-insect taxa (QM = 8.70, df = 1, P = 0.003). Moreover, seed-applied neonicotinoids affected the abundance of arthropod natural enemies similarly to soil- or foliar-applied pyrethroids (d = 0.16 ± 0.42 or −0.02 ± 0.12; with or without one outlying study). Effect sizes were surprisingly consistent across both datasets (I2 = 2.7% for no-insecticide controls; I2 = 0% for pyrethroid controls), suggesting little moderating influence of crop species, neonicotinoid active ingredients, or methodological choices. Discussion Our meta-analysis of nearly 1,000 observations from North American and European field studies revealed that seed-applied neonicotinoids reduced the abundance of arthropod natural enemies similarly to broadcast applications of pyrethroid insecticides. These findings suggest that substituting pyrethroids for seed-applied neonicotinoids, or vice versa, will have little net affect on natural enemy abundance. Consistent with previous lab work, our results also suggest that seed-applied neonicotinoids are less toxic to spiders and mites, which can contribute substantially to biological control in many agricultural systems. Finally, our ability to interpret the negative effect of neonicotinoids on natural enemies is constrained by difficulty relating natural-enemy abundance to biological control function; this is an important area for future study. PMID:27957400

Meta-analysis reveals that seed-applied neonicotinoids and pyrethroids have similar negative effects on abundance of arthropod natural enemies.

PubMed

Douglas, Margaret R; Tooker, John F

2016-01-01

Seed-applied neonicotinoids are widely used in agriculture, yet their effects on non-target species remain incompletely understood. One important group of non-target species is arthropod natural enemies (predators and parasitoids), which contribute considerably to suppression of crop pests. We hypothesized that seed-applied neonicotinoids reduce natural-enemy abundance, but not as strongly as alternative insecticide options such as soil- and foliar-applied pyrethroids. Furthermore we hypothesized that seed-applied neonicotinoids affect natural enemies through a combination of toxin exposure and prey scarcity. To test our hypotheses, we compiled datasets comprising observations from randomized field studies in North America and Europe that compared natural-enemy abundance in plots that were planted with seed-applied neonicotinoids to control plots that were either (1) managed without insecticides (20 studies, 56 site-years, 607 observations) or (2) managed with pyrethroid insecticides (eight studies, 15 site-years, 384 observations). Using the effect size Hedge's d as the response variable, we used meta-regression to estimate the overall effect of seed-applied neonicotinoids on natural-enemy abundance and to test the influence of potential moderating factors. Seed-applied neonicotinoids reduced the abundance of arthropod natural enemies compared to untreated controls ( d = -0.30 ± 0.10 [95% confidence interval]), and as predicted under toxin exposure this effect was stronger for insect than for non-insect taxa ( Q M = 8.70, df = 1, P = 0.003). Moreover, seed-applied neonicotinoids affected the abundance of arthropod natural enemies similarly to soil- or foliar-applied pyrethroids ( d = 0.16 ± 0.42 or -0.02 ± 0.12; with or without one outlying study). Effect sizes were surprisingly consistent across both datasets ( I 2  = 2.7% for no-insecticide controls; I 2  = 0% for pyrethroid controls), suggesting little moderating influence of crop species, neonicotinoid active ingredients, or methodological choices. Our meta-analysis of nearly 1,000 observations from North American and European field studies revealed that seed-applied neonicotinoids reduced the abundance of arthropod natural enemies similarly to broadcast applications of pyrethroid insecticides. These findings suggest that substituting pyrethroids for seed-applied neonicotinoids, or vice versa, will have little net affect on natural enemy abundance. Consistent with previous lab work, our results also suggest that seed-applied neonicotinoids are less toxic to spiders and mites, which can contribute substantially to biological control in many agricultural systems. Finally, our ability to interpret the negative effect of neonicotinoids on natural enemies is constrained by difficulty relating natural-enemy abundance to biological control function; this is an important area for future study.

Tracking Deceased-Related Thinking with Neural Pattern Decoding of a Cortical-Basal Ganglia Circuit.

PubMed

Schneck, Noam; Haufe, Stefan; Tu, Tao; Bonanno, George A; Ochsner, Kevin; Sajda, Paul; Mann, J John

2017-07-01

Deceased-related thinking is central to grieving and potentially critical to processing of the loss. Self-report measurements might fail to capture important elements of deceased-related thinking and processing. Here, we used a machine learning approach applied to fMRI - known as neural decoding - to develop a measure of ongoing deceased-related processing. 23 subjects grieving the loss of a first-degree relative, spouse or partner within 14 months underwent two fMRI tasks. They first viewed pictures and stories related to the deceased, a living control and a demographic control figure while providing ongoing valence and arousal ratings. Second, they performed a 10-minute Sustained Attention to Response Task (SART) with thought probes every 25-35 seconds to identify deceased, living and self-related thoughts. A conjunction analysis, controlling for valence/arousal, identified neural clusters in basal ganglia, orbital prefrontal cortex and insula associated with both types of deceased-related stimuli vs. the two control conditions in the first task. This pattern was applied to fMRI data collected during the SART, and discriminated deceased-related but not living or self-related thoughts, independently of grief-severity and time since loss. Deceased-related thoughts on the SART correlated with self-reported avoidance. The neural model predicted avoidance over and above deceased-related thoughts. A neural pattern trained to identify mental representations of the deceased tracked deceased-related thinking during a sustained attention task and also predicted subject-level avoidance. This approach provides a new imaging tool to be used as an index of processing the deceased for future studies of complicated grief.

Magnetic Control of Solutal Buoyancy Driven Convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramachandran, N.; Leslie, F. W.

2003-01-01

Volumetric forces resulting from local density variations and gravitational acceleration cause buoyancy induced convective motion in melts and solutions. Solutal buoyancy is a result of concentration differences in an otherwise isothermal fluid. If the fluid also exhibits variations in magnetic susceptibility with concentration then convection control by external magnetic fields can be hypothesized. Magnetic control of thermal buoyancy induced convection in ferrofluids (dispersions of ferromagnetic particles in a carrier fluid) and paramagnetic fluids have been demonstrated. Here we show the nature of magnetic control of solutal buoyancy driven convection of a paramagnetic fluid, an aqueous solution of Manganese Chloride hydrate. We predict the critical magnetic field required for balancing gravitational solutal buoyancy driven convection and validate it through a simple experiment. We demonstrate that gravity driven flow can be completely reversed by a magnetic field but the exact cancellation of the flow is not possible. This is because the phenomenon is unstable. The technique can be applied to crystal growth processes in order to reduce convection and to heat exchanger devices for enhancing convection. The method can also be applied to impose a desired g-level in reduced gravity applications.

Effects of computing time delay on real-time control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shin, Kang G.; Cui, Xianzhong

1988-01-01

The reliability of a real-time digital control system depends not only on the reliability of the hardware and software used, but also on the speed in executing control algorithms. The latter is due to the negative effects of computing time delay on control system performance. For a given sampling interval, the effects of computing time delay are classified into the delay problem and the loss problem. Analysis of these two problems is presented as a means of evaluating real-time control systems. As an example, both the self-tuning predicted (STP) control and Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) control are applied to the problem of tracking robot trajectories, and their respective effects of computing time delay on control performance are comparatively evaluated. For this example, the STP (PID) controller is shown to outperform the PID (STP) controller in coping with the delay (loss) problem.

Prediction of the diffuse-field transmission loss of interior natural-ventilation openings and silencers.

PubMed

Bibby, Chris; Hodgson, Murray

2017-01-01

The work reported here, part of a study on the performance and optimal design of interior natural-ventilation openings and silencers ("ventilators"), discusses the prediction of the acoustical performance of such ventilators, and the factors that affect it. A wave-based numerical approach-the finite-element method (FEM)-is applied. The development of a FEM technique for the prediction of ventilator diffuse-field transmission loss is presented. Model convergence is studied with respect to mesh, frequency-sampling and diffuse-field convergence. The modeling technique is validated by way of predictions and the comparison of them to analytical and experimental results. The transmission-loss performance of crosstalk silencers of four shapes, and the factors that affect it, are predicted and discussed. Performance increases with flow-path length for all silencer types. Adding elbows significantly increases high-frequency transmission loss, but does not increase overall silencer performance which is controlled by low-to-mid-frequency transmission loss.

Prediction-Correction Algorithms for Time-Varying Constrained Optimization

DOE PAGES

Simonetto, Andrea; Dall'Anese, Emiliano

2017-07-26

This article develops online algorithms to track solutions of time-varying constrained optimization problems. Particularly, resembling workhorse Kalman filtering-based approaches for dynamical systems, the proposed methods involve prediction-correction steps to provably track the trajectory of the optimal solutions of time-varying convex problems. The merits of existing prediction-correction methods have been shown for unconstrained problems and for setups where computing the inverse of the Hessian of the cost function is computationally affordable. This paper addresses the limitations of existing methods by tackling constrained problems and by designing first-order prediction steps that rely on the Hessian of the cost function (and do notmore » require the computation of its inverse). In addition, the proposed methods are shown to improve the convergence speed of existing prediction-correction methods when applied to unconstrained problems. Numerical simulations corroborate the analytical results and showcase performance and benefits of the proposed algorithms. A realistic application of the proposed method to real-time control of energy resources is presented.« less

Slug sizing/slug volume prediction, state of the art review and simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burke, N.E.; Kashou, S.F.

1995-12-01

Slug flow is a flow pattern commonly encountered in offshore multiphase flowlines. It is characterized by an alternate flow of liquid slugs and gas pockets, resulting in an unsteady hydrodynamic behavior. All important design variables, such as slug length and slug frequency, liquid holdup, and pressure drop, vary with time and this makes the prediction of slug flow characteristics both difficult and challenging. This paper reviews the state of the art methods in slug catcher sizing and slug volume predictions. In addition, history matching of measured slug flow data is performed using the OLGA transient simulator. This paper reviews themore » design factors that impact slug catcher sizing during steady state, during transient, during pigging, and during operations under a process control system. The slug tracking option of the OLGA simulator is applied to predict the slug length and the slug volume during a field operation. This paper will also comment on the performance of common empirical slug prediction correlations.« less

Slug-sizing/slug-volume prediction: State of the art review and simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burke, N.E.; Kashou, S.F.

1996-08-01

Slug flow is a flow pattern commonly encountered in offshore multiphase flowlines. It is characterized by an alternate flow of liquid slugs and gas pockets, resulting in an unsteady hydrodynamic behavior. All important design variables, such as slug length and slug frequency, liquid holdup, and pressure drop, vary with time and this makes the prediction of slug flow characteristics both difficult and challenging. This paper reviews the state of the art methods in slug-catcher sizing and slug-volume predictions. In addition, history matching of measured slug flow data is performed using the OLGA transient simulator. This paper reviews the design factorsmore » that impact slug-catcher sizing during steady state, during transient, during pigging, and during operations under a process-control system. The slug-tracking option of the simulator is applied to predict the slug length and the slug volume during a field operation. This paper will also comment on the performance of common empirical slug-prediction correlations.« less

Predicting clinical symptoms of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder based on temporal patterns between and within intrinsic connectivity networks.

PubMed

Wang, Xun-Heng; Jiao, Yun; Li, Lihua

2017-10-24

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a common brain disorder with high prevalence in school-age children. Previously developed machine learning-based methods have discriminated patients with ADHD from normal controls by providing label information of the disease for individuals. Inattention and impulsivity are the two most significant clinical symptoms of ADHD. However, predicting clinical symptoms (i.e., inattention and impulsivity) is a challenging task based on neuroimaging data. The goal of this study is twofold: to build predictive models for clinical symptoms of ADHD based on resting-state fMRI and to mine brain networks for predictive patterns of inattention and impulsivity. To achieve this goal, a cohort of 74 boys with ADHD and a cohort of 69 age-matched normal controls were recruited from the ADHD-200 Consortium. Both structural and resting-state fMRI images were obtained for each participant. Temporal patterns between and within intrinsic connectivity networks (ICNs) were applied as raw features in the predictive models. Specifically, sample entropy was taken asan intra-ICN feature, and phase synchronization (PS) was used asan inter-ICN feature. The predictive models were based on the least absolute shrinkage and selectionator operator (LASSO) algorithm. The performance of the predictive model for inattention is r=0.79 (p<10 -8 ), and the performance of the predictive model for impulsivity is r=0.48 (p<10 -8 ). The ICN-related predictive patterns may provide valuable information for investigating the brain network mechanisms of ADHD. In summary, the predictive models for clinical symptoms could be beneficial for personalizing ADHD medications. Copyright © 2017 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real-Time Feedback Control of Flow-Induced Cavity Tones. Part 1; Fixed-Gain Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kegerise, M. A.; Cabell, R. H.; Cattafesta, L. N., III

2006-01-01

A generalized predictive control (GPC) algorithm was formulated and applied to the cavity flow-tone problem. The control algorithm demonstrated multiple Rossiter-mode suppression at fixed Mach numbers ranging from 0.275 to 0.38. Controller performance was evaluated with a measure of output disturbance rejection and an input sensitivity transfer function. The results suggest that disturbances entering the cavity flow are collocated with the control input at the cavity leading edge. In that case, only tonal components of the cavity wall-pressure fluctuations can be suppressed and arbitrary broadband pressure reduction is not possible with the present sensor/actuator arrangement. In the control-algorithm development, the cavity dynamics were treated as linear and time invariant (LTI) for a fixed Mach number. The experimental results lend support to that treatment.

Poly (lactic-co-glycolic acid) controlled release systems: experimental and modeling insights

PubMed Central

Hines, Daniel J.; Kaplan, David L.

2013-01-01

Poly-lactic-co-glycolic acid (PLGA) has been the most successful polymeric biomaterial for use in controlled drug delivery systems. There are several different chemical and physical properties of PLGA that impact the release behavior of drugs from PLGA delivery devices. These properties must be considered and optimized in drug release device formulation. Mathematical modeling is a useful tool for identifying, characterizing, and predicting the mechanisms of controlled release. The advantages and limitations of poly (lactic-co-glycolic acid) for controlled release are reviewed, followed by a review of current approaches in controlled release technology that utilize PLGA. Mathematical modeling applied towards controlled release rates from PLGA-based devices will also be discussed to provide a complete picture of state of the art understanding of the control achievable with this polymeric system, as well as the limitations. PMID:23614648

A predictive estimation method for carbon dioxide transport by data-driven modeling with a physically-based data model.

PubMed

Jeong, Jina; Park, Eungyu; Han, Weon Shik; Kim, Kue-Young; Jun, Seong-Chun; Choung, Sungwook; Yun, Seong-Taek; Oh, Junho; Kim, Hyun-Jun

2017-11-01

In this study, a data-driven method for predicting CO 2 leaks and associated concentrations from geological CO 2 sequestration is developed. Several candidate models are compared based on their reproducibility and predictive capability for CO 2 concentration measurements from the Environment Impact Evaluation Test (EIT) site in Korea. Based on the data mining results, a one-dimensional solution of the advective-dispersive equation for steady flow (i.e., Ogata-Banks solution) is found to be most representative for the test data, and this model is adopted as the data model for the developed method. In the validation step, the method is applied to estimate future CO 2 concentrations with the reference estimation by the Ogata-Banks solution, where a part of earlier data is used as the training dataset. From the analysis, it is found that the ensemble mean of multiple estimations based on the developed method shows high prediction accuracy relative to the reference estimation. In addition, the majority of the data to be predicted are included in the proposed quantile interval, which suggests adequate representation of the uncertainty by the developed method. Therefore, the incorporation of a reasonable physically-based data model enhances the prediction capability of the data-driven model. The proposed method is not confined to estimations of CO 2 concentration and may be applied to various real-time monitoring data from subsurface sites to develop automated control, management or decision-making systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of different aperture distribution models and critical stress criteria on equivalent permeability in fractured rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisdom, Kevin; Bertotti, Giovanni; Nick, Hamidreza M.

2016-05-01

Predicting equivalent permeability in fractured reservoirs requires an understanding of the fracture network geometry and apertures. There are different methods for defining aperture, based on outcrop observations (power law scaling), fundamental mechanics (sublinear length-aperture scaling), and experiments (Barton-Bandis conductive shearing). Each method predicts heterogeneous apertures, even along single fractures (i.e., intrafracture variations), but most fractured reservoir models imply constant apertures for single fractures. We compare the relative differences in aperture and permeability predicted by three aperture methods, where permeability is modeled in explicit fracture networks with coupled fracture-matrix flow. Aperture varies along single fractures, and geomechanical relations are used to identify which fractures are critically stressed. The aperture models are applied to real-world large-scale fracture networks. (Sub)linear length scaling predicts the largest average aperture and equivalent permeability. Barton-Bandis aperture is smaller, predicting on average a sixfold increase compared to matrix permeability. Application of critical stress criteria results in a decrease in the fraction of open fractures. For the applied stress conditions, Coulomb predicts that 50% of the network is critically stressed, compared to 80% for Barton-Bandis peak shear. The impact of the fracture network on equivalent permeability depends on the matrix hydraulic properties, as in a low-permeable matrix, intrafracture connectivity, i.e., the opening along a single fracture, controls equivalent permeability, whereas for a more permeable matrix, absolute apertures have a larger impact. Quantification of fracture flow regimes using only the ratio of fracture versus matrix permeability is insufficient, as these regimes also depend on aperture variations within fractures.

Development of a strategy and computational application to select candidate protein analogues with reduced HLA binding and immunogenicity.

PubMed

Dhanda, Sandeep Kumar; Grifoni, Alba; Pham, John; Vaughan, Kerrie; Sidney, John; Peters, Bjoern; Sette, Alessandro

2018-01-01

Unwanted immune responses against protein therapeutics can reduce efficacy or lead to adverse reactions. T-cell responses are key in the development of such responses, and are directed against immunodominant regions within the protein sequence, often associated with binding to several allelic variants of HLA class II molecules (promiscuous binders). Herein, we report a novel computational strategy to predict 'de-immunized' peptides, based on previous studies of erythropoietin protein immunogenicity. This algorithm (or method) first predicts promiscuous binding regions within the target protein sequence and then identifies residue substitutions predicted to reduce HLA binding. Further, this method anticipates the effect of any given substitution on flanking peptides, thereby circumventing the creation of nascent HLA-binding regions. As a proof-of-principle, the algorithm was applied to Vatreptacog α, an engineered Factor VII molecule associated with unintended immunogenicity. The algorithm correctly predicted the two immunogenic peptides containing the engineered residues. As a further validation, we selected and evaluated the immunogenicity of seven substitutions predicted to simultaneously reduce HLA binding for both peptides, five control substitutions with no predicted reduction in HLA-binding capacity, and additional flanking region controls. In vitro immunogenicity was detected in 21·4% of the cultures of peptides predicted to have reduced HLA binding and 11·4% of the flanking regions, compared with 46% for the cultures of the peptides predicted to be immunogenic. This method has been implemented as an interactive application, freely available online at http://tools.iedb.org/deimmunization/. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A temporary deficiency in self-control: Can heightened motivation overcome this effect?

PubMed

Kelly, Claire L; Crawford, Trevor J; Gowen, Emma; Richardson, Kelly; Sünram-Lea, Sandra I

2017-05-01

Self-control is important for everyday life and involves behavioral regulation. Self-control requires effort, and when completing two successive self-control tasks, there is typically a temporary drop in performance in the second task. High self-reported motivation and being made self-aware somewhat counteract this effect-with the result that performance in the second task is enhanced. The current study explored the relationship between self-awareness and motivation on sequential self-control task performance. Before employing self-control in an antisaccade task, participants initially applied self-control in an incongruent Stroop task or completed a control task. After the Stroop task, participants unscrambled sentences that primed self-awareness (each started with the word "I") or unscrambled neutral sentences. Motivation was measured after the antisaccade task. Findings revealed that, after exerting self-control in the incongruent Stroop task, motivation predicted erroneous responses in the antisaccade task for those that unscrambled neutral sentences, and high motivation led to fewer errors. Those primed with self-awareness were somewhat more motivated overall, but motivation did not significantly predict antisaccade performance. Supporting the resource allocation account, if one was motivated-intrinsically or via the manipulation of self-awareness-resources were allocated to both tasks leading to the successful completion of two sequential self-control tasks. © 2017 The Authors. Psychophysiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Exposure–response model for sibutramine and placebo: suggestion for application to long-term weight-control drug development

PubMed Central

Han, Seunghoon; Jeon, Sangil; Hong, Taegon; Lee, Jongtae; Bae, Soo Hyeon; Park, Wan-su; Park, Gab-jin; Youn, Sunil; Jang, Doo Yeon; Kim, Kyung-Soo; Yim, Dong-Seok

2015-01-01

No wholly successful weight-control drugs have been developed to date, despite the tremendous demand. We present an exposure–response model of sibutramine mesylate that can be applied during clinical development of other weight-control drugs. Additionally, we provide a model-based evaluation of sibutramine efficacy. Data from a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter study were used (N=120). Subjects in the treatment arm were initially given 8.37 mg sibutramine base daily, and those who lost <2 kg after 4 weeks’ treatment were escalated to 12.55 mg. The duration of treatment was 24 weeks. Drug concentration and body weight were measured predose and at 4 weeks, 8 weeks, and 24 weeks after treatment initiation. Exposure and response to sibutramine, including the placebo effect, were modeled using NONMEM 7.2. An asymptotic model approaching the final body weight was chosen to describe the time course of weight loss. Extent of weight loss was described successfully using a sigmoidal exposure–response relationship of the drug with a constant placebo effect in each individual. The placebo effect was influenced by subjects’ sex and baseline body mass index. Maximal weight loss was predicted to occur around 1 year after treatment initiation. The difference in mean weight loss between the sibutramine (daily 12.55 mg) and placebo groups was predicted to be 4.5% in a simulation of 1 year of treatment, with considerable overlap of prediction intervals. Our exposure–response model, which included the placebo effect, is the first example of a quantitative model that can be used to predict the efficacy of weight-control drugs. Similar approaches can help decision-making during clinical development of novel weight-loss drugs. PMID:26392753

Exposure-response model for sibutramine and placebo: suggestion for application to long-term weight-control drug development.

PubMed

Han, Seunghoon; Jeon, Sangil; Hong, Taegon; Lee, Jongtae; Bae, Soo Hyeon; Park, Wan-su; Park, Gab-jin; Youn, Sunil; Jang, Doo Yeon; Kim, Kyung-Soo; Yim, Dong-Seok

2015-01-01

No wholly successful weight-control drugs have been developed to date, despite the tremendous demand. We present an exposure-response model of sibutramine mesylate that can be applied during clinical development of other weight-control drugs. Additionally, we provide a model-based evaluation of sibutramine efficacy. Data from a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter study were used (N=120). Subjects in the treatment arm were initially given 8.37 mg sibutramine base daily, and those who lost <2 kg after 4 weeks' treatment were escalated to 12.55 mg. The duration of treatment was 24 weeks. Drug concentration and body weight were measured predose and at 4 weeks, 8 weeks, and 24 weeks after treatment initiation. Exposure and response to sibutramine, including the placebo effect, were modeled using NONMEM 7.2. An asymptotic model approaching the final body weight was chosen to describe the time course of weight loss. Extent of weight loss was described successfully using a sigmoidal exposure-response relationship of the drug with a constant placebo effect in each individual. The placebo effect was influenced by subjects' sex and baseline body mass index. Maximal weight loss was predicted to occur around 1 year after treatment initiation. The difference in mean weight loss between the sibutramine (daily 12.55 mg) and placebo groups was predicted to be 4.5% in a simulation of 1 year of treatment, with considerable overlap of prediction intervals. Our exposure-response model, which included the placebo effect, is the first example of a quantitative model that can be used to predict the efficacy of weight-control drugs. Similar approaches can help decision-making during clinical development of novel weight-loss drugs.

Cross-organism learning method to discover new gene functionalities.

PubMed

Domeniconi, Giacomo; Masseroli, Marco; Moro, Gianluca; Pinoli, Pietro

2016-04-01

Knowledge of gene and protein functions is paramount for the understanding of physiological and pathological biological processes, as well as in the development of new drugs and therapies. Analyses for biomedical knowledge discovery greatly benefit from the availability of gene and protein functional feature descriptions expressed through controlled terminologies and ontologies, i.e., of gene and protein biomedical controlled annotations. In the last years, several databases of such annotations have become available; yet, these valuable annotations are incomplete, include errors and only some of them represent highly reliable human curated information. Computational techniques able to reliably predict new gene or protein annotations with an associated likelihood value are thus paramount. Here, we propose a novel cross-organisms learning approach to reliably predict new functionalities for the genes of an organism based on the known controlled annotations of the genes of another, evolutionarily related and better studied, organism. We leverage a new representation of the annotation discovery problem and a random perturbation of the available controlled annotations to allow the application of supervised algorithms to predict with good accuracy unknown gene annotations. Taking advantage of the numerous gene annotations available for a well-studied organism, our cross-organisms learning method creates and trains better prediction models, which can then be applied to predict new gene annotations of a target organism. We tested and compared our method with the equivalent single organism approach on different gene annotation datasets of five evolutionarily related organisms (Homo sapiens, Mus musculus, Bos taurus, Gallus gallus and Dictyostelium discoideum). Results show both the usefulness of the perturbation method of available annotations for better prediction model training and a great improvement of the cross-organism models with respect to the single-organism ones, without influence of the evolutionary distance between the considered organisms. The generated ranked lists of reliably predicted annotations, which describe novel gene functionalities and have an associated likelihood value, are very valuable both to complement available annotations, for better coverage in biomedical knowledge discovery analyses, and to quicken the annotation curation process, by focusing it on the prioritized novel annotations predicted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multidimensional stability model for predicting shallow landslide size and shape across landscapes.

PubMed

Milledge, David G; Bellugi, Dino; McKean, Jim A; Densmore, Alexander L; Dietrich, William E

2014-11-01

The size of a shallow landslide is a fundamental control on both its hazard and geomorphic importance. Existing models are either unable to predict landslide size or are computationally intensive such that they cannot practically be applied across landscapes. We derive a model appropriate for natural slopes that is capable of predicting shallow landslide size but simple enough to be applied over entire watersheds. It accounts for lateral resistance by representing the forces acting on each margin of potential landslides using earth pressure theory and by representing root reinforcement as an exponential function of soil depth. We test our model's ability to predict failure of an observed landslide where the relevant parameters are well constrained by field data. The model predicts failure for the observed scar geometry and finds that larger or smaller conformal shapes are more stable. Numerical experiments demonstrate that friction on the boundaries of a potential landslide increases considerably the magnitude of lateral reinforcement, relative to that due to root cohesion alone. We find that there is a critical depth in both cohesive and cohesionless soils, resulting in a minimum size for failure, which is consistent with observed size-frequency distributions. Furthermore, the differential resistance on the boundaries of a potential landslide is responsible for a critical landslide shape which is longer than it is wide, consistent with observed aspect ratios. Finally, our results show that minimum size increases as approximately the square of failure surface depth, consistent with observed landslide depth-area data.

A multidimensional stability model for predicting shallow landslide size and shape across landscapes

PubMed Central

Milledge, David G; Bellugi, Dino; McKean, Jim A; Densmore, Alexander L; Dietrich, William E

2014-01-01

The size of a shallow landslide is a fundamental control on both its hazard and geomorphic importance. Existing models are either unable to predict landslide size or are computationally intensive such that they cannot practically be applied across landscapes. We derive a model appropriate for natural slopes that is capable of predicting shallow landslide size but simple enough to be applied over entire watersheds. It accounts for lateral resistance by representing the forces acting on each margin of potential landslides using earth pressure theory and by representing root reinforcement as an exponential function of soil depth. We test our model's ability to predict failure of an observed landslide where the relevant parameters are well constrained by field data. The model predicts failure for the observed scar geometry and finds that larger or smaller conformal shapes are more stable. Numerical experiments demonstrate that friction on the boundaries of a potential landslide increases considerably the magnitude of lateral reinforcement, relative to that due to root cohesion alone. We find that there is a critical depth in both cohesive and cohesionless soils, resulting in a minimum size for failure, which is consistent with observed size-frequency distributions. Furthermore, the differential resistance on the boundaries of a potential landslide is responsible for a critical landslide shape which is longer than it is wide, consistent with observed aspect ratios. Finally, our results show that minimum size increases as approximately the square of failure surface depth, consistent with observed landslide depth-area data. PMID:26213663

Magnetic stirling cycles: A new application for magnetic materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, G. V.

1977-01-01

The elements of the cycle are summarized. The basic advantages include high entropy density in the magnetic material, completely reversible processes, convenient control of the entropy by the applied field, the feature that heat transfer is possible during all processes, and the ability of the ideal cycle to attain Carnot efficiency. The mean field theory is used to predict the entropy of a ferromagnet in an applied field and also the isothermal entropy change and isentropic temperature change caused by applying a field. The results for isentropic temperature change are compared with experimental data on Gd. Coarse mixtures of ferromagnetic materials with different Curie points are proposed to modify the path of the cycle in the T-S diagram in order to improve the efficiency or to increase the specific power.

Internet Competency Predicts Practical Hearing Aid Knowledge and Skills in First-Time Hearing Aid Users.

PubMed

Maidment, David; Brassington, William; Wharrad, Heather; Ferguson, Melanie

2016-10-01

The purpose of the study was to assess whether Internet competency predicted practical hearing aid knowledge and handling skills in first-time hearing aid users. The design was a prospective, randomized controlled trial of a multimedia educational intervention consisting of interactive video tutorials (or reusable learning objects [RLOs]). RLOs were delivered through DVD for TV or PC, and online. Internet competency was measured at the hearing aid fitting appointment, whereas hearing aid knowledge and practical handling skills were assessed 6 weeks postfitting. Internet competency predicted practical hearing aid knowledge and handling skills, controlling for age, hearing sensitivity, educational status, and gender for the group that received the RLOs. Internet competency was inversely related to the number of times the RLOs were watched. Associations between Internet competency and practical hearing aid knowledge, handling skills, and watching the RLOs fewer times may have arisen because of improved self-efficacy. Therefore, first-time hearing aid users who are more competent Internet users may be better equipped to apply newly learned information to effectively manage their hearing loss.

Dynamical Epidemic Suppression Using Stochastic Prediction and Control

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-10-28

initial probability density function (PDF), p: D C R2 -- R, is defined by the stochastic Frobenius - Perron For deterministic systems, normal methods of...induced chaos. To analyze the qualitative change, we apply the technique of the stochastic Frobenius - Perron operator [L. Billings et al., Phys. Rev. Lett...transition matrix describing the probability of transport from one region of phase space to another, which approximates the stochastic Frobenius - Perron

Electromagnetic Model Reliably Predicts Radar Scattering Characteristics of Airborne Organisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirkovic, Djordje; Stepanian, Phillip M.; Kelly, Jeffrey F.; Chilson, Phillip B.

2016-10-01

The radar scattering characteristics of aerial animals are typically obtained from controlled laboratory measurements of a freshly harvested specimen. These measurements are tedious to perform, difficult to replicate, and typically yield only a small subset of the full azimuthal, elevational, and polarimetric radio scattering data. As an alternative, biological applications of radar often assume that the radar cross sections of flying animals are isotropic, since sophisticated computer models are required to estimate the 3D scattering properties of objects having complex shapes. Using the method of moments implemented in the WIPL-D software package, we show for the first time that such electromagnetic modeling techniques (typically applied to man-made objects) can accurately predict organismal radio scattering characteristics from an anatomical model: here the Brazilian free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis). The simulated scattering properties of the bat agree with controlled measurements and radar observations made during a field study of bats in flight. This numerical technique can produce the full angular set of quantitative polarimetric scattering characteristics, while eliminating many practical difficulties associated with physical measurements. Such a modeling framework can be applied for bird, bat, and insect species, and will help drive a shift in radar biology from a largely qualitative and phenomenological science toward quantitative estimation of animal densities and taxonomic identification.

Electromagnetic Model Reliably Predicts Radar Scattering Characteristics of Airborne Organisms

PubMed Central

Mirkovic, Djordje; Stepanian, Phillip M.; Kelly, Jeffrey F.; Chilson, Phillip B.

2016-01-01

The radar scattering characteristics of aerial animals are typically obtained from controlled laboratory measurements of a freshly harvested specimen. These measurements are tedious to perform, difficult to replicate, and typically yield only a small subset of the full azimuthal, elevational, and polarimetric radio scattering data. As an alternative, biological applications of radar often assume that the radar cross sections of flying animals are isotropic, since sophisticated computer models are required to estimate the 3D scattering properties of objects having complex shapes. Using the method of moments implemented in the WIPL-D software package, we show for the first time that such electromagnetic modeling techniques (typically applied to man-made objects) can accurately predict organismal radio scattering characteristics from an anatomical model: here the Brazilian free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis). The simulated scattering properties of the bat agree with controlled measurements and radar observations made during a field study of bats in flight. This numerical technique can produce the full angular set of quantitative polarimetric scattering characteristics, while eliminating many practical difficulties associated with physical measurements. Such a modeling framework can be applied for bird, bat, and insect species, and will help drive a shift in radar biology from a largely qualitative and phenomenological science toward quantitative estimation of animal densities and taxonomic identification. PMID:27762292

Electromagnetic Model Reliably Predicts Radar Scattering Characteristics of Airborne Organisms.

PubMed

Mirkovic, Djordje; Stepanian, Phillip M; Kelly, Jeffrey F; Chilson, Phillip B

2016-10-20

The radar scattering characteristics of aerial animals are typically obtained from controlled laboratory measurements of a freshly harvested specimen. These measurements are tedious to perform, difficult to replicate, and typically yield only a small subset of the full azimuthal, elevational, and polarimetric radio scattering data. As an alternative, biological applications of radar often assume that the radar cross sections of flying animals are isotropic, since sophisticated computer models are required to estimate the 3D scattering properties of objects having complex shapes. Using the method of moments implemented in the WIPL-D software package, we show for the first time that such electromagnetic modeling techniques (typically applied to man-made objects) can accurately predict organismal radio scattering characteristics from an anatomical model: here the Brazilian free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis). The simulated scattering properties of the bat agree with controlled measurements and radar observations made during a field study of bats in flight. This numerical technique can produce the full angular set of quantitative polarimetric scattering characteristics, while eliminating many practical difficulties associated with physical measurements. Such a modeling framework can be applied for bird, bat, and insect species, and will help drive a shift in radar biology from a largely qualitative and phenomenological science toward quantitative estimation of animal densities and taxonomic identification.

Trajectory-Based Takeoff Time Predictions Applied to Tactical Departure Scheduling: Concept Description, System Design, and Initial Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engelland, Shawn A.; Capps, Alan

2011-01-01

Current aircraft departure release times are based on manual estimates of aircraft takeoff times. Uncertainty in takeoff time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route streams and lead to lost throughput. However, technology exists to improve takeoff time estimates by using the aircraft surface trajectory predictions that enable air traffic control tower (ATCT) decision support tools. NASA s Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) is designed to use automated surface trajectory-based takeoff time estimates to improve en route tactical departure scheduling. This is accomplished by integrating an ATCT decision support tool with an en route tactical departure scheduling decision support tool. The PDRC concept and prototype software have been developed, and an initial test was completed at air traffic control facilities in Dallas/Fort Worth. This paper describes the PDRC operational concept, system design, and initial observations.

Individual Sawtooth Pacing by Synchronized ECCD in TCV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goodman, T. P.; Felici, F.; Canal, G.

2011-12-23

Previous real-time sawtooth control scenarios using EC actuators have attempted to shorten or lengthen the sawtooth period by optimally positioning the EC absorption near the q = 1 surface. In new experiments we demonstrate for the first time that individual sawtooth crashes can be repetitively induced at predictable times by reducing the stabilizing ECCD power after a predetermined time from the preceding crash. Other stabilizing actuators (e.g. ICRF, NBI) are expected to produce similar effects. Armed with these results, we present a new sawtooth / NTM control paradigm for improved performance in burning plasmas. The potential appearance of neo-classical tearingmore » modes, triggered by long period sawtooth crashes even at low beta, becomes predictable and therefore amenable to preemptive ECCD. The ITER Electron Cyclotron Upper Launcher (EC-UL) design incorporates the needed functionalities for this method to be applied. The methodology and associated TCV experiments will be presented.« less

Applications of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in food science.

PubMed

Huang, Yiqun; Kangas, Lars J; Rasco, Barbara A

2007-01-01

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been applied in almost every aspect of food science over the past two decades, although most applications are in the development stage. ANNs are useful tools for food safety and quality analyses, which include modeling of microbial growth and from this predicting food safety, interpreting spectroscopic data, and predicting physical, chemical, functional and sensory properties of various food products during processing and distribution. ANNs hold a great deal of promise for modeling complex tasks in process control and simulation and in applications of machine perception including machine vision and electronic nose for food safety and quality control. This review discusses the basic theory of the ANN technology and its applications in food science, providing food scientists and the research community an overview of the current research and future trend of the applications of ANN technology in the field.

Satellite attitude prediction by multiple time scales method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Y. C.; Ramnath, R.

1975-01-01

An investigation is made of the problem of predicting the attitude of satellites under the influence of external disturbing torques. The attitude dynamics are first expressed in a perturbation formulation which is then solved by the multiple scales approach. The independent variable, time, is extended into new scales, fast, slow, etc., and the integration is carried out separately in the new variables. The theory is applied to two different satellite configurations, rigid body and dual spin, each of which may have an asymmetric mass distribution. The disturbing torques considered are gravity gradient and geomagnetic. Finally, as multiple time scales approach separates slow and fast behaviors of satellite attitude motion, this property is used for the design of an attitude control device. A nutation damping control loop, using the geomagnetic torque for an earth pointing dual spin satellite, is designed in terms of the slow equation.

Burnout control at the Albright coal-waste-bank fire. Rept. of investigations/1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chaiken, R.F.; Bayles, L.G.

1991-01-01

Burnout Control is a process developed by the U.S. Bureau of Mines for accelerating the burning of wasted coal fires in situ, while at the same time controlling the heat and fumes produced. The Albright fire project is a first field trial of Burnout Control as applied to a coal waste bank. An exhaust ventilation system was designed and constructed and then operated over a 1-year period at the site of an existing abandoned mine land fire near the town of Albright, W.V. While predicted exhaust gas temperatures of 900 C and thermal power levels of 5 MW were achievedmore » at 20- to 30-in H2O vacuum levels, problems were encountered with engineering designs, equipment breakdown, and fuel-rich combustion that curtailed the time period of satisfactory operation. Effective afterburning of the exhaust gases (as they were drawn from the bank) corrected the problems associated with combustion stoichiometry and led to high thermal outputs. It is believed that with (1) improvements in engineering design and construction, (2) better control of the afterburning process, and (3) the use of conventional stack gas air-pollution controls, Burnout Control can be applied successfully to a coal waste bank fire.« less

Datamining approaches for modeling tumor control probability.

PubMed

Naqa, Issam El; Deasy, Joseph O; Mu, Yi; Huang, Ellen; Hope, Andrew J; Lindsay, Patricia E; Apte, Aditya; Alaly, James; Bradley, Jeffrey D

2010-11-01

Tumor control probability (TCP) to radiotherapy is determined by complex interactions between tumor biology, tumor microenvironment, radiation dosimetry, and patient-related variables. The complexity of these heterogeneous variable interactions constitutes a challenge for building predictive models for routine clinical practice. We describe a datamining framework that can unravel the higher order relationships among dosimetric dose-volume prognostic variables, interrogate various radiobiological processes, and generalize to unseen data before when applied prospectively. Several datamining approaches are discussed that include dose-volume metrics, equivalent uniform dose, mechanistic Poisson model, and model building methods using statistical regression and machine learning techniques. Institutional datasets of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients are used to demonstrate these methods. The performance of the different methods was evaluated using bivariate Spearman rank correlations (rs). Over-fitting was controlled via resampling methods. Using a dataset of 56 patients with primary NCSLC tumors and 23 candidate variables, we estimated GTV volume and V75 to be the best model parameters for predicting TCP using statistical resampling and a logistic model. Using these variables, the support vector machine (SVM) kernel method provided superior performance for TCP prediction with an rs=0.68 on leave-one-out testing compared to logistic regression (rs=0.4), Poisson-based TCP (rs=0.33), and cell kill equivalent uniform dose model (rs=0.17). The prediction of treatment response can be improved by utilizing datamining approaches, which are able to unravel important non-linear complex interactions among model variables and have the capacity to predict on unseen data for prospective clinical applications.

Machine learning classification with confidence: application of transductive conformal predictors to MRI-based diagnostic and prognostic markers in depression.

PubMed

Nouretdinov, Ilia; Costafreda, Sergi G; Gammerman, Alexander; Chervonenkis, Alexey; Vovk, Vladimir; Vapnik, Vladimir; Fu, Cynthia H Y

2011-05-15

There is rapidly accumulating evidence that the application of machine learning classification to neuroimaging measurements may be valuable for the development of diagnostic and prognostic prediction tools in psychiatry. However, current methods do not produce a measure of the reliability of the predictions. Knowing the risk of the error associated with a given prediction is essential for the development of neuroimaging-based clinical tools. We propose a general probabilistic classification method to produce measures of confidence for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. We describe the application of transductive conformal predictor (TCP) to MRI images. TCP generates the most likely prediction and a valid measure of confidence, as well as the set of all possible predictions for a given confidence level. We present the theoretical motivation for TCP, and we have applied TCP to structural and functional MRI data in patients and healthy controls to investigate diagnostic and prognostic prediction in depression. We verify that TCP predictions are as accurate as those obtained with more standard machine learning methods, such as support vector machine, while providing the additional benefit of a valid measure of confidence for each prediction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neural Network Assisted Inverse Dynamic Guidance for Terminally Constrained Entry Flight

PubMed Central

Chen, Wanchun

2014-01-01

This paper presents a neural network assisted entry guidance law that is designed by applying Bézier approximation. It is shown that a fully constrained approximation of a reference trajectory can be made by using the Bézier curve. Applying this approximation, an inverse dynamic system for an entry flight is solved to generate guidance command. The guidance solution thus gotten ensures terminal constraints for position, flight path, and azimuth angle. In order to ensure terminal velocity constraint, a prediction of the terminal velocity is required, based on which, the approximated Bézier curve is adjusted. An artificial neural network is used for this prediction of the terminal velocity. The method enables faster implementation in achieving fully constrained entry flight. Results from simulations indicate improved performance of the neural network assisted method. The scheme is expected to have prospect for further research on automated onboard control of terminal velocity for both reentry and terminal guidance laws. PMID:24723821

Quantitative assessment of specific defects in roasted ground coffee via infrared-photoacoustic spectroscopy.

PubMed

Dias, Rafael Carlos Eloy; Valderrama, Patrícia; Março, Paulo Henrique; Dos Santos Scholz, Maria Brigida; Edelmann, Michael; Yeretzian, Chahan

2018-07-30

Chemical analyses and sensory evaluation are the most applied methods for quality control of roasted and ground coffee (RG). However, faster alternatives would be highly valuable. Here, we applied infrared-photoacoustic spectroscopy (FTIR-PAS) on RG powder. Mixtures of specific defective beans were blended with healthy (defect-free) Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora bases in specific ratios, forming different classes of blends. Principal Component Analysis allowed predicting the amount/fraction and nature of the defects in blends while partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis revealed similarities between blends (=samples). A successful predictive model was obtained using six classes of blends. The model could classify 100% of the samples into four classes. The specificities were higher than 0.9. Application of FTIR-PAS on RG coffee to characterize and classify blends has shown to be an accurate, easy, quick and "green" alternative to current methods. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Dynamo threshold detection in the von Kármán sodium experiment.

PubMed

Miralles, Sophie; Bonnefoy, Nicolas; Bourgoin, Mickael; Odier, Philippe; Pinton, Jean-François; Plihon, Nicolas; Verhille, Gautier; Boisson, Jean; Daviaud, François; Dubrulle, Bérengère

2013-07-01

Predicting dynamo self-generation in liquid metal experiments has been an ongoing question for many years. In contrast to simple dynamical systems for which reliable techniques have been developed, the ability to predict the dynamo capacity of a flow and the estimate of the corresponding critical value of the magnetic Reynolds number (the control parameter of the instability) has been elusive, partly due to the high level of turbulent fluctuations of flows in such experiments (with kinetic Reynolds numbers in excess of 10(6)). We address these issues here, using the von Kármán sodium experiment and studying its response to an externally applied magnetic field. We first show that a dynamo threshold can be estimated from analysis related to critical slowing down and susceptibility divergence, in configurations for which dynamo action is indeed observed. These approaches are then applied to flow configurations that have failed to self-generate magnetic fields within operational limits, and we quantify the dynamo capacity of these configurations.

Multi-Dimensional Shallow Landslide Stability Analysis Suitable for Application at the Watershed Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milledge, D.; Bellugi, D.; McKean, J. A.; Dietrich, W.

2012-12-01

The infinite slope model is the basis for almost all watershed scale slope stability models. However, it assumes that a potential landslide is infinitely long and wide. As a result, it cannot represent resistance at the margins of a potential landslide (e.g. from lateral roots), and is unable to predict the size of a potential landslide. Existing three-dimensional models generally require computationally expensive numerical solutions and have previously been applied only at the hillslope scale. Here we derive an alternative analytical treatment that accounts for lateral resistance by representing the forces acting on each margin of an unstable block. We apply 'at rest' earth pressure on the lateral sides, and 'active' and 'passive' pressure using a log-spiral method on the upslope and downslope margins. We represent root reinforcement on each margin assuming that root cohesion is an exponential function of soil depth. We benchmark this treatment against other more complete approaches (Finite Element (FE) and closed form solutions) and find that our model: 1) converges on the infinite slope predictions as length / depth and width / depth ratios become large; 2) agrees with the predictions from state-of-the-art FE models to within +/- 30% error, for the specific cases in which these can be applied. We then test our model's ability to predict failure of an actual (mapped) landslide where the relevant parameters are relatively well constrained. We find that our model predicts failure at the observed location with a nearly identical shape and predicts that larger or smaller shapes conformal to the observed shape are indeed more stable. Finally, we perform a sensitivity analysis using our model to show that lateral reinforcement sets a minimum landslide size, while the additional strength at the downslope boundary means that the optimum shape for a given size is longer in a downslope direction. However, reinforcement effects cannot fully explain the size or shape distributions of observed landslides, highlighting the importance of spatial patterns of key parameters (e.g. pore water pressure) and motivating the model's watershed scale application. This watershed scale application requires an efficient method to find the least stable shapes among an almost infinite set. However, when applied in this context, it allows a more complete examination of the controls on landslide size, shape and location.

Microbial burden prediction model for unmanned planetary spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, A. R.; Winterburn, D. A.

1972-01-01

The technical development of a computer program for predicting microbial burden on unmanned planetary spacecraft is outlined. The discussion includes the derivation of the basic analytical equations, the selection of a method for handling several random variables, the macrologic of the computer programs and the validation and verification of the model. The prediction model was developed to (1) supplement the biological assays of a spacecraft by simulating the microbial accretion during periods when assays are not taken; (2) minimize the necessity for a large number of microbiological assays; and (3) predict the microbial loading on a lander immediately prior to sterilization and other non-lander equipment prior to launch. It is shown that these purposes not only were achieved but also that the prediction results compare favorably to the estimates derived from the direct assays. The computer program can be applied not only as a prediction instrument but also as a management and control tool. The basic logic of the model is shown to have possible applicability to other sequential flow processes, such as food processing.

Forecasting Precipitation over the MENA Region: A Data Mining and Remote Sensing Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elkadiri, R.; Sultan, M.; Elbayoumi, T.; Chouinard, K.

2015-12-01

We developed and applied an integrated approach to construct predictive tools with lead times of 1 to 12 months to forecast precipitation amounts over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The following steps were conducted: (1) acquire and analyze temporal remote sensing-based precipitation datasets (i.e. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission [TRMM]) over five main water source regions in the MENA area (i.e. Atlas Mountains in Morocco, Southern Sudan, Red Sea Hills of Yemen, and Blue Nile and White Nile source areas) throughout the investigation period (1998 to 2015), (2) acquire and extract monthly values for all of the climatic indices that are likely to influence the climatic patterns over the MENA region (e.g., Northern Atlantic Oscillation [NOI], Southern Oscillation Index [SOI], and Tropical North Atlantic Index [TNA]); and (3) apply data mining methods to extract relationships between the observed precipitation and the controlling factors (climatic indices) and use predictive tools to forecast monthly precipitation over each of the identified pilot study areas. Preliminary results indicate that by using the period from January 1998 until August 2012 for model training and the period from September 2012 to January 2015 for testing, precipitation can be successfully predicted with a three-months lead over South West Yemen, Atlas Mountains in Morocco, Southern Sudan, Blue Nile sources and White Nile sources with confidence (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.911, 0.823, 0.807, 0.801 and 0.895 respectively). Future work will focus on applying this technique for prediction of precipitation over each of the climatically contiguous areas of the MENA region. If our efforts are successful, our findings will lead the way to the development and implementation of sound water management scenarios for the MENA countries.

Applying the theory of planned behavior: nursing students' intention to seek clinical experiences using the essential clinical behavior database.

PubMed

Meyer, Linda

2002-03-01

This study examined the antecedents and determinants predictive of whether nursing students (N = 92) intend to ask for assignments to perform nursing behaviors after using a database to record essential clinical behaviors. The results of applying the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to behavioral intention using multivariant path analysis suggested that the endogenous variables, attitude and subjective norms, had a significant effect on the intention to ask for assignments to perform nursing behaviors. In addition, it was primarily through attitudes and subjective norms that the respective antecedents or exogenous variables, behavioral beliefs and normative beliefs, affected the intention to ask for assignments to perform nursing behaviors. The lack of direct influence of perceived behavioral control on intention and the direct negative impact of control belief on intention were contrary to expectations, given the tenets of the TPB.

ISG hybrid powertrain: a rule-based driver model incorporating look-ahead information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Shuiwen; Zhang, Junzhi; Chen, Xiaojiang; Zhong, Qing-Chang; Thornton, Roger

2010-03-01

According to European regulations, if the amount of regenerative braking is determined by the travel of the brake pedal, more stringent standards must be applied, otherwise it may adversely affect the existing vehicle safety system. The use of engine or vehicle speed to derive regenerative braking is one way to avoid strict design standards, but this introduces discontinuity in powertrain torque when the driver releases the acceleration pedal or applies the brake pedal. This is shown to cause oscillations in the pedal input and powertrain torque when a conventional driver model is adopted. Look-ahead information, together with other predicted vehicle states, are adopted to control the vehicle speed, in particular, during deceleration, and to improve the driver model so that oscillations can be avoided. The improved driver model makes analysis and validation of the control strategy for an integrated starter generator (ISG) hybrid powertrain possible.

Display/control requirements for automated VTOL aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, W. C.; Kleinman, D. L.; Young, L. R.

1976-01-01

A systematic design methodology for pilot displays in advanced commercial VTOL aircraft was developed and refined. The analyst is provided with a step-by-step procedure for conducting conceptual display/control configurations evaluations for simultaneous monitoring and control pilot tasks. The approach consists of three phases: formulation of information requirements, configuration evaluation, and system selection. Both the monitoring and control performance models are based upon the optimal control model of the human operator. Extensions to the conventional optimal control model required in the display design methodology include explicit optimization of control/monitoring attention; simultaneous monitoring and control performance predictions; and indifference threshold effects. The methodology was applied to NASA's experimental CH-47 helicopter in support of the VALT program. The CH-47 application examined the system performance of six flight conditions. Four candidate configurations are suggested for evaluation in pilot-in-the-loop simulations and eventual flight tests.

Output MSE and PSNR prediction in DCT-based lossy compression of remote sensing images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozhemiakin, Ruslan A.; Abramov, Sergey K.; Lukin, Vladimir V.; Vozel, Benoit; Chehdi, Kacem

2017-10-01

Amount and size of remote sensing (RS) images acquired by modern systems are so large that data have to be compressed in order to transfer, save and disseminate them. Lossy compression becomes more popular for aforementioned situations. But lossy compression has to be applied carefully with providing acceptable level of introduced distortions not to lose valuable information contained in data. Then introduced losses have to be controlled and predicted and this is problematic for many coders. In this paper, we analyze possibilities of predicting mean square error or, equivalently, PSNR for coders based on discrete cosine transform (DCT) applied either for compressing singlechannel RS images or multichannel data in component-wise manner. The proposed approach is based on direct dependence between distortions introduced due to DCT coefficient quantization and losses in compressed data. One more innovation deals with possibility to employ a limited number (percentage) of blocks for which DCT-coefficients have to be calculated. This accelerates prediction and makes it considerably faster than compression itself. There are two other advantages of the proposed approach. First, it is applicable for both uniform and non-uniform quantization of DCT coefficients. Second, the approach is quite general since it works for several analyzed DCT-based coders. The simulation results are obtained for standard test images and then verified for real-life RS data.

Rotating Molten Metallic Drops and Related Phenomena: A New Approach to the Surface Tension Measurement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhim, Won-Kyu; Ishikawa, Takehiko

2000-01-01

Molten aluminum and tin drops were levitated in a high vacuum by controlled electric fields, and they were systematically rotated by applying by a rotating magnetic field. When the evolution of the drop shape was measured as a function of rotation frequency, it agreed quantitatively well with the Brown and Scriven's theoretical prediction. The normalized rotation frequencies at the bifurcation point agreed with the predicted value 0.559, within 2%. An anomalous phenomenon which totally deviated from the prediction was observed in rotating molten tin drops when they were kept in a high rotation rate for several hours. No anomaly was observed in aluminum drops when they underwent similar condition. It was speculated that under the strong centrifugal force in the drop the tin isotopes must be separating. Since Al-27 is essentially the only naturally abundant isotope in the aluminum drops, the same anomaly is not expected. Based on the shape deformation of a rotating drop, an alternate approach to the surface tension measurement was verified. This new surface tension measurement technique was applied to a glassforming alloy, Zr(41.2)Ti(13.8)Cu(12.5)Ni(10.0)Be(22.5) in its highly viscous states. Also demonstrated in the paper was a use of a molten aluminum drop to verify the Busse's prediction of the influence of the drop rotation on the drop oscillation frequency.

Characterization of a Saccharomyces cerevisiae fermentation process for production of a therapeutic recombinant protein using a multivariate Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Fu, Zhibiao; Baker, Daniel; Cheng, Aili; Leighton, Julie; Appelbaum, Edward; Aon, Juan

2016-05-01

The principle of quality by design (QbD) has been widely applied to biopharmaceutical manufacturing processes. Process characterization is an essential step to implement the QbD concept to establish the design space and to define the proven acceptable ranges (PAR) for critical process parameters (CPPs). In this study, we present characterization of a Saccharomyces cerevisiae fermentation process using risk assessment analysis, statistical design of experiments (DoE), and the multivariate Bayesian predictive approach. The critical quality attributes (CQAs) and CPPs were identified with a risk assessment. The statistical model for each attribute was established using the results from the DoE study with consideration given to interactions between CPPs. Both the conventional overlapping contour plot and the multivariate Bayesian predictive approaches were used to establish the region of process operating conditions where all attributes met their specifications simultaneously. The quantitative Bayesian predictive approach was chosen to define the PARs for the CPPs, which apply to the manufacturing control strategy. Experience from the 10,000 L manufacturing scale process validation, including 64 continued process verification batches, indicates that the CPPs remain under a state of control and within the established PARs. The end product quality attributes were within their drug substance specifications. The probability generated with the Bayesian approach was also used as a tool to assess CPP deviations. This approach can be extended to develop other production process characterization and quantify a reliable operating region. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:799-812, 2016. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Systems and methods for distributing power using photovoltaic resources and a shifting battery system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mammoli, Andrea A.; Lavrova, Olga; Arellano, Brian

The present invention is an apparatus and method for delivering energy using a renewable resource. The method includes providing a photovoltaic energy source and applying energy storage to the photovoltaic energy source via a battery storage unit. The energy output from the photovoltaic energy source and the battery system is controlled using a battery control system. The battery control system predicts peak load, develops a schedule that includes when to begin discharging power and when to stop discharging power, shifts power to the battery storage unit when excess power is available, and prioritizes the functionality of the battery storage unitmore » and the photovoltaic energy source.« less

Low drag attitude control for Skylab orbital lifetime extension

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glaese, J. R.; Kennel, H. F.

1981-01-01

In the fall of 1977 it was determined that Skylab had started to tumble and that the original orbit lifetime predictions were much too optimistic. A decision had to be made whether to accept an early uncontrolled reentry with its inherent risks or try to attempt to control Skylab to a lower drag attitude in the hope that there was enough time to develop a Teleoperator Retrieval System, bring it up on the Space Shuttle and then decide whether to boost Skylab to a higher longer life orbit or to reenter it in a controlled fashion. The end-on-velocity (EOVV) control method is documented, which was successfully applied for about half a year to keep Skylab in a low drag attitude with the aid of the control moment gyros and a minimal expenditure of attitude control gas.

Dynamic Modeling, Model-Based Control, and Optimization of Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spivey, Benjamin James

2011-07-01

Solid oxide fuel cells are a promising option for distributed stationary power generation that offers efficiencies ranging from 50% in stand-alone applications to greater than 80% in cogeneration. To advance SOFC technology for widespread market penetration, the SOFC should demonstrate improved cell lifetime and load-following capability. This work seeks to improve lifetime through dynamic analysis of critical lifetime variables and advanced control algorithms that permit load-following while remaining in a safe operating zone based on stress analysis. Control algorithms typically have addressed SOFC lifetime operability objectives using unconstrained, single-input-single-output control algorithms that minimize thermal transients. Existing SOFC controls research has not considered maximum radial thermal gradients or limits on absolute temperatures in the SOFC. In particular, as stress analysis demonstrates, the minimum cell temperature is the primary thermal stress driver in tubular SOFCs. This dissertation presents a dynamic, quasi-two-dimensional model for a high-temperature tubular SOFC combined with ejector and prereformer models. The model captures dynamics of critical thermal stress drivers and is used as the physical plant for closed-loop control simulations. A constrained, MIMO model predictive control algorithm is developed and applied to control the SOFC. Closed-loop control simulation results demonstrate effective load-following, constraint satisfaction for critical lifetime variables, and disturbance rejection. Nonlinear programming is applied to find the optimal SOFC size and steady-state operating conditions to minimize total system costs.

Design of optimal hyperthermia protocols for prostate cancer by controlling HSP expression through computer modeling (Invited Paper)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rylander, Marissa N.; Feng, Yusheng; Diller, Kenneth; Bass, J.

2005-04-01

Heat shock proteins (HSP) are critical components of a complex defense mechanism essential for preserving cell survival under adverse environmental conditions. It is inevitable that hyperthermia will enhance tumor tissue viability, due to HSP expression in regions where temperatures are insufficient to coagulate proteins, and would likely increase the probability of cancer recurrence. Although hyperthermia therapy is commonly used in conjunction with radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and gene therapy to increase therapeutic effectiveness, the efficacy of these therapies can be substantially hindered due to HSP expression when hyperthermia is applied prior to these procedures. Therefore, in planning hyperthermia protocols, prediction of the HSP response of the tumor must be incorporated into the treatment plan to optimize the thermal dose delivery and permit prediction of overall tissue response. In this paper, we present a highly accurate, adaptive, finite element tumor model capable of predicting the HSP expression distribution and tissue damage region based on measured cellular data when hyperthermia protocols are specified. Cubic spline representations of HSP27 and HSP70, and Arrhenius damage models were integrated into the finite element model to enable prediction of the HSP expression and damage distribution in the tissue following laser heating. Application of the model can enable optimized treatment planning by controlling of the tissue response to therapy based on accurate prediction of the HSP expression and cell damage distribution.

Predicting coronary artery disease using different artificial neural network models.

PubMed

Colak, M Cengiz; Colak, Cemil; Kocatürk, Hasan; Sağiroğlu, Seref; Barutçu, Irfan

2008-08-01

Eight different learning algorithms used for creating artificial neural network (ANN) models and the different ANN models in the prediction of coronary artery disease (CAD) are introduced. This work was carried out as a retrospective case-control study. Overall, 124 consecutive patients who had been diagnosed with CAD by coronary angiography (at least 1 coronary stenosis > 50% in major epicardial arteries) were enrolled in the work. Angiographically, the 113 people (group 2) with normal coronary arteries were taken as control subjects. Multi-layered perceptrons ANN architecture were applied. The ANN models trained with different learning algorithms were performed in 237 records, divided into training (n=171) and testing (n=66) data sets. The performance of prediction was evaluated by sensitivity, specificity and accuracy values based on standard definitions. The results have demonstrated that ANN models trained with eight different learning algorithms are promising because of high (greater than 71%) sensitivity, specificity and accuracy values in the prediction of CAD. Accuracy, sensitivity and specificity values varied between 83.63%-100%, 86.46%-100% and 74.67%-100% for training, respectively. For testing, the values were more than 71% for sensitivity, 76% for specificity and 81% for accuracy. It may be proposed that the use of different learning algorithms other than backpropagation and larger sample sizes can improve the performance of prediction. The proposed ANN models trained with these learning algorithms could be used a promising approach for predicting CAD without the need for invasive diagnostic methods and could help in the prognostic clinical decision.

Predicting the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Sichuan province, China using the ARIMA model.

PubMed

Liu, L; Luan, R S; Yin, F; Zhu, X P; Lü, Q

2016-01-01

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is an infectious disease caused by enteroviruses, which usually occurs in children aged <5 years. In China, the HFMD situation is worsening, with increasing number of cases nationwide. Therefore, monitoring and predicting HFMD incidence are urgently needed to make control measures more effective. In this study, we applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast HFMD incidence in Sichuan province, China. HFMD infection data from January 2010 to June 2014 were used to fit the ARIMA model. The coefficient of determination (R 2), normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and mean absolute percentage of error (MAPE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the constructed models. The fitted ARIMA model was applied to forecast the incidence of HMFD from April to June 2014. The goodness-of-fit test generated the optimum general multiplicative seasonal ARIMA (1,0,1) × (0,1,0)12 model (R 2 = 0·692, MAPE = 15·982, BIC = 5·265), which also showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model (P = 0·893). The forecast incidence values of the ARIMA (1,0,1) × (0,1,0)12 model from July to December 2014 were 4103-9987, which were proximate forecasts. The ARIMA model could be applied to forecast HMFD incidence trend and provide support for HMFD prevention and control. Further observations should be carried out continually into the time sequence, and the parameters of the models could be adjusted because HMFD incidence will not be absolutely stationary in the future.

2-D Circulation Control Airfoil Benchmark Experiments Intended for CFD Code Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Englar, Robert J.; Jones, Gregory S.; Allan, Brian G.; Lin, Johb C.

2009-01-01

A current NASA Research Announcement (NRA) project being conducted by Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI) personnel and NASA collaborators includes the development of Circulation Control (CC) blown airfoils to improve subsonic aircraft high-lift and cruise performance. The emphasis of this program is the development of CC active flow control concepts for both high-lift augmentation, drag control, and cruise efficiency. A collaboration in this project includes work by NASA research engineers, whereas CFD validation and flow physics experimental research are part of NASA s systematic approach to developing design and optimization tools for CC applications to fixed-wing aircraft. The design space for CESTOL type aircraft is focusing on geometries that depend on advanced flow control technologies that include Circulation Control aerodynamics. The ability to consistently predict advanced aircraft performance requires improvements in design tools to include these advanced concepts. Validation of these tools will be based on experimental methods applied to complex flows that go beyond conventional aircraft modeling techniques. This paper focuses on recent/ongoing benchmark high-lift experiments and CFD efforts intended to provide 2-D CFD validation data sets related to NASA s Cruise Efficient Short Take Off and Landing (CESTOL) study. Both the experimental data and related CFD predictions are discussed.

Changes in sensorimotor-related thalamic diffusion properties and cerebrospinal fluid hydrodynamics predict gait responses to tap test in idiopathic normal-pressure hydrocephalus.

PubMed

Tsai, Ping-Huei; Chen, Yung-Chieh; Chiang, Shih-Wei; Huang, Teng-Yi; Chou, Ming-Chung; Liu, Hua-Shan; Chung, Hsiao-Wen; Peng, Giia-Sheun; Ma, Hsin-I; Kao, Hung-Wen; Chen, Cheng-Yu

2018-05-07

To compare diffusion tensor (DT)-derived indices from the thalamic nuclei and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) hydrodynamic parameters for the prediction of gait responsiveness to the CSF tap test in early iNPH patients. In this study, 22 patients with iNPH and 16 normal controls were enrolled with the approval of an institutional review board. DT imaging and phase-contrast magnetic resonance imaging were performed in patients and controls to determine DT-related indices of the sensorimotor-related thalamic nuclei and CSF hydrodynamics. Gait performance was assessed in patients using gait scale before and after the tap test. The Mann-Whitney U test and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were applied to compare group differences between patients and controls and assess the predictive performance of gait responsiveness to the tap test in the patients. Fractional anisotropy (FA) and axial diffusivity showed significant increases in the ventrolateral (VL) and ventroposterolateral (VPL) nuclei of the iNPH group compared with those of the control group (p < 0.05). The predictions of gait responsiveness of ventral thalamic FA alone (area under the ROC curve [AUC] < 0.8) significantly outperformed those of CSF hydrodynamics alone (AUC < 0.6). The AUC curve was elevated to 0.812 when the CSF peak systolic velocity and FA value were combined for the VPL nucleus, yielding the highest sensitivity (0.769) and specificity (0.778) to predict gait responses. Combined measurements of sensorimotor-related thalamic FA and CSF hydrodynamics can provide potential biomarkers for gait response to the CSF tap test in patients with iNPH. • Ventrolateral and ventroposterolateral thalamic FA may predict gait responsiveness to tap test. • Thalamic neuroplasticity can be assessed through DTI in idiopathic normal-pressure hydrocephalus. • Changes in the CST associated with gait control could trigger thalamic neuroplasticity. • Activities of sensorimotor-related circuits could alter in patients with gait disturbance. • Management of patients with iNPH could be more appropriate.

Raman spectroscopy detection of platelet for Alzheimer’s disease with predictive probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L. J.; Du, X. Q.; Du, Z. W.; Yang, Y. Y.; Chen, P.; Tian, Q.; Shang, X. L.; Liu, Z. C.; Yao, X. Q.; Wang, J. Z.; Wang, X. H.; Cheng, Y.; Peng, J.; Shen, A. G.; Hu, J. M.

2014-08-01

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a common form of dementia. Early and differential diagnosis of AD has always been an arduous task for the medical expert due to the unapparent early symptoms and the currently imperfect imaging examination methods. Therefore, obtaining reliable markers with clinical diagnostic value in easily assembled samples is worthy and significant. Our previous work with laser Raman spectroscopy (LRS), in which we detected platelet samples of different ages of AD transgenic mice and non-transgenic controls, showed great effect in the diagnosis of AD. In addition, a multilayer perception network (MLP) classification method was adopted to discriminate the spectral data. However, there were disturbances, which were induced by noise from the machines and so on, in the data set; thus the MLP method had to be trained with large-scale data. In this paper, we aim to re-establish the classification models of early and advanced AD and the control group with fewer features, and apply some mechanism of noise reduction to improve the accuracy of models. An adaptive classification method based on the Gaussian process (GP) featured, with predictive probabilities, is proposed, which could tell when a data set is related to some kind of disease. Compared with MLP on the same feature set, GP showed much better performance in the experimental results. What is more, since the spectra of platelets are isolated from AD, GP has good expansibility and can be applied in diagnosis of many other similar diseases, such as Parkinson’s disease (PD). Spectral data of 4 month and 12 month AD platelets, as well as control data, were collected. With predictive probabilities, the proposed GP classification method improved the diagnostic sensitivity to nearly 100%. Samples were also collected from PD platelets as classification and comparison to the 12 month AD. The presented approach and our experiments indicate that utilization of GP with predictive probabilities in platelet LRS detection analysis turns out to be more accurate for early and differential diagnosis of AD and has a wide application prospect.

Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework

PubMed Central

Brooks, Logan C.; Farrow, David C.; Hyun, Sangwon; Tibshirani, Ryan J.; Rosenfeld, Roni

2015-01-01

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic’s behavior, policy makers can design and implement more effective countermeasures. This past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted the “Predict the Influenza Season Challenge”, with the task of predicting key epidemiological measures for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season with the help of digital surveillance data. We developed a framework for in-season forecasts of epidemics using a semiparametric Empirical Bayes framework, and applied it to predict the weekly percentage of outpatient doctors visits for influenza-like illness, and the season onset, duration, peak time, and peak height, with and without using Google Flu Trends data. Previous work on epidemic modeling has focused on developing mechanistic models of disease behavior and applying time series tools to explain historical data. However, tailoring these models to certain types of surveillance data can be challenging, and overly complex models with many parameters can compromise forecasting ability. Our approach instead produces possibilities for the epidemic curve of the season of interest using modified versions of data from previous seasons, allowing for reasonable variations in the timing, pace, and intensity of the seasonal epidemics, as well as noise in observations. Since the framework does not make strict domain-specific assumptions, it can easily be applied to some other diseases with seasonal epidemics. This method produces a complete posterior distribution over epidemic curves, rather than, for example, solely point predictions of forecasting targets. We report prospective influenza-like-illness forecasts made for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season, and compare the framework’s cross-validated prediction error on historical data to that of a variety of simpler baseline predictors. PMID:26317693

Prediction of pilot opinion ratings using an optimal pilot model. [of aircraft handling qualities in multiaxis tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, R. A.

1977-01-01

A brief review of some of the more pertinent applications of analytical pilot models to the prediction of aircraft handling qualities is undertaken. The relative ease with which multiloop piloting tasks can be modeled via the optimal control formulation makes the use of optimal pilot models particularly attractive for handling qualities research. To this end, a rating hypothesis is introduced which relates the numerical pilot opinion rating assigned to a particular vehicle and task to the numerical value of the index of performance resulting from an optimal pilot modeling procedure as applied to that vehicle and task. This hypothesis is tested using data from piloted simulations and is shown to be reasonable. An example concerning a helicopter landing approach is introduced to outline the predictive capability of the rating hypothesis in multiaxis piloting tasks.

The application of parameter estimation to flight measurements to obtain lateral-directional stability derivatives of an augmented jet-flap STOL airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephenson, J. D.

1983-01-01

Flight experiments with an augmented jet flap STOL aircraft provided data from which the lateral directional stability and control derivatives were calculated by applying a linear regression parameter estimation procedure. The tests, which were conducted with the jet flaps set at a 65 deg deflection, covered a large range of angles of attack and engine power settings. The effect of changing the angle of the jet thrust vector was also investigated. Test results are compared with stability derivatives that had been predicted. The roll damping derived from the tests was significantly larger than had been predicted, whereas the other derivatives were generally in agreement with the predictions. Results obtained using a maximum likelihood estimation procedure are compared with those from the linear regression solutions.

A Dynamic Hydrology-Critical Zone Framework for Rainfall-triggered Landslide Hazard Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dialynas, Y. G.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.; Dietrich, W. E.; Bras, R. L.

2017-12-01

Watershed-scale coupled hydrologic-stability models are still in their early stages, and are characterized by important limitations: (a) either they assume steady-state or quasi-dynamic watershed hydrology, or (b) they simulate landslide occurrence based on a simple one-dimensional stability criterion. Here we develop a three-dimensional landslide prediction framework, based on a coupled hydrologic-slope stability model and incorporation of the influence of deep critical zone processes (i.e., flow through weathered bedrock and exfiltration to the colluvium) for more accurate prediction of the timing, location, and extent of landslides. Specifically, a watershed-scale slope stability model that systematically accounts for the contribution of driving and resisting forces in three-dimensional hillslope segments was coupled with a spatially-explicit and physically-based hydrologic model. The landslide prediction framework considers critical zone processes and structure, and explicitly accounts for the spatial heterogeneity of surface and subsurface properties that control slope stability, including soil and weathered bedrock hydrological and mechanical characteristics, vegetation, and slope morphology. To test performance, the model was applied in landslide-prone sites in the US, the hydrology of which has been extensively studied. Results showed that both rainfall infiltration in the soil and groundwater exfiltration exert a strong control on the timing and magnitude of landslide occurrence. We demonstrate the extent to which three-dimensional slope destabilizing factors, which are modulated by dynamic hydrologic conditions in the soil-bedrock column, control landslide initiation at the watershed scale.

"Squishy capacitor" model for electrical double layers and the stability of charged interfaces.

PubMed

Partenskii, Michael B; Jordan, Peter C

2009-07-01

Negative capacitance (NC), predicted by various electrical double layer (EDL) theories, is critically reviewed. Physically possible for individual components of the EDL, the compact or diffuse layer, it is strictly prohibited for the whole EDL or for an electrochemical cell with two electrodes. However, NC is allowed for the artificial conditions of sigma control, where an EDL is described by the equilibrium electric response of electrolyte to a field of fixed, and typically uniform, surface charge-density distributions, sigma. The contradiction is only apparent; in fact local sigma cannot be set independently, but is established by the equilibrium response to physically controllable variables, i.e., applied voltage phi (phi control) or total surface charge q (q control). NC predictions in studies based on sigma control signify potential instabilities and phase transitions for physically realizable conditions. Building on our previous study of phi control [M. B. Partenskii and P. C. Jordan, Phys. Rev. E 77, 061117 (2008)], here we analyze critical behavior under q control, clarifying the basic picture using an exactly solvable "squishy capacitor" toy model. We find that phi can change discontinuously in the presence of a lateral transition, specify stability conditions for an electrochemical cell, analyze the origin of the EDL's critical point in terms of compact and diffuse serial contributions, and discuss perspectives and challenges for theoretical studies not limited by sigma control.

Iterative learning-based decentralized adaptive tracker for large-scale systems: a digital redesign approach.

PubMed

Tsai, Jason Sheng-Hong; Du, Yan-Yi; Huang, Pei-Hsiang; Guo, Shu-Mei; Shieh, Leang-San; Chen, Yuhua

2011-07-01

In this paper, a digital redesign methodology of the iterative learning-based decentralized adaptive tracker is proposed to improve the dynamic performance of sampled-data linear large-scale control systems consisting of N interconnected multi-input multi-output subsystems, so that the system output will follow any trajectory which may not be presented by the analytic reference model initially. To overcome the interference of each sub-system and simplify the controller design, the proposed model reference decentralized adaptive control scheme constructs a decoupled well-designed reference model first. Then, according to the well-designed model, this paper develops a digital decentralized adaptive tracker based on the optimal analog control and prediction-based digital redesign technique for the sampled-data large-scale coupling system. In order to enhance the tracking performance of the digital tracker at specified sampling instants, we apply the iterative learning control (ILC) to train the control input via continual learning. As a result, the proposed iterative learning-based decentralized adaptive tracker not only has robust closed-loop decoupled property but also possesses good tracking performance at both transient and steady state. Besides, evolutionary programming is applied to search for a good learning gain to speed up the learning process of ILC. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Active Wake Redirection Control to Improve Energy Yield (Poster)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Churchfield, M. J.; Fleming, P.; DeGeorge, E.

Wake effects can dramatically reduce the efficiency of waked turbines relative to the unwaked turbines. Wakes can be deflected, or 'redirected,' by applying yaw misalignment to the turbines. Yaw misalignment causes part of the rotor thrust vector to be pointed in the cross-stream direction, deflecting the flow and the wake. Yaw misalignment reduces power production, but the global increase in wind plant power due to decreased wake effect creates a net increase in power production. It is also a fairly simple control idea to implement at existing or new wind plants. We performed high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics simulations of themore » wake flow of the proposed Fishermen's Atlantic City Windfarm (FACW) that predict that under certain waking conditions, wake redirection can increase plant efficiency by 10%. This means that by applying wake redirection control, for a given watersheet area, a wind plant can either produce more power, or the same amount of power can be produced with a smaller watersheet area. With the power increase may come increased loads, though, due to the yaw misalignment. If misalignment is applied properly, or if layered with individual blade pitch control, though, the load increase can be mitigated. In this talk we will discuss the concept of wake redirection through yaw misalignment and present our CFD results of the FACW project. We will also discuss the implications of wake redirection control on annual energy production, and finally we will discuss plans to implement wake redirection control at FACW when it is operational.« less

Magnetic Control of Hypersonic Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poggie, Jonathan; Gaitonde, Datta

2000-11-01

Electromagnetic control is an appealing possibility for mitigating the thermal loads that occur in hypersonic flight, in particular for the case of atmospheric entry. There was extensive research on this problem between about 1955 and 1970,(M. F. Romig, ``The Influence of Electric and Magnetic Fields on Heat Transfer to Electrically Conducting Fluids,'' \\underlineAdvances In Heat Transfer), Vol. 1, Academic Press, NY, 1964. and renewed interest has arisen due to developments in the technology of super-conducting magnets and the understanding of the physics of weakly-ionized, non-equilibrium plasmas. In order to examine the physics of this problem, and to evaluate the practicality of electromagnetic control in hypersonic flight, we have developed a computer code to solve the three-dimensional, non-ideal magnetogasdynamics equations. We have applied the code to the problem of magnetically-decelerated hypersonic flow over a sphere, and observed a reduction, with an applied dipole field, in heat flux and skin friction near the nose of the body, as well as an increase in shock standoff distance. The computational results compare favorably with the analytical predictions of Bush.(W. B. Bush, ``Magnetohydrodynamic-Hypersonic Flow Past a Blunt Body'', Journal of the Aero/Space Sciences, Vol. 25, No. 11, 1958; ``The Stagnation-Point Boundary Layer in the Presence of an Applied Magnetic Field'', Vol. 28, No. 8, 1961.)

An Inverse Neural Controller Based on the Applicability Domain of RBF Network Models

PubMed Central

Alexandridis, Alex; Stogiannos, Marios; Papaioannou, Nikolaos; Zois, Elias; Sarimveis, Haralambos

2018-01-01

This paper presents a novel methodology of generic nature for controlling nonlinear systems, using inverse radial basis function neural network models, which may combine diverse data originating from various sources. The algorithm starts by applying the particle swarm optimization-based non-symmetric variant of the fuzzy means (PSO-NSFM) algorithm so that an approximation of the inverse system dynamics is obtained. PSO-NSFM offers models of high accuracy combined with small network structures. Next, the applicability domain concept is suitably tailored and embedded into the proposed control structure in order to ensure that extrapolation is avoided in the controller predictions. Finally, an error correction term, estimating the error produced by the unmodeled dynamics and/or unmeasured external disturbances, is included to the control scheme to increase robustness. The resulting controller guarantees bounded input-bounded state (BIBS) stability for the closed loop system when the open loop system is BIBS stable. The proposed methodology is evaluated on two different control problems, namely, the control of an experimental armature-controlled direct current (DC) motor and the stabilization of a highly nonlinear simulated inverted pendulum. For each one of these problems, appropriate case studies are tested, in which a conventional neural controller employing inverse models and a PID controller are also applied. The results reveal the ability of the proposed control scheme to handle and manipulate diverse data through a data fusion approach and illustrate the superiority of the method in terms of faster and less oscillatory responses. PMID:29361781

New Secondary Batteries Utilizing Electronically Conductive Polypyrrole Cathode. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeu, Taewhan

1991-01-01

To gain a better understanding of the dynamic behavior in electronically conducting polypyrroles and to provide guidance toward designs of new secondary batteries based on these polymers, two mathematical models are developed; one for the potentiostatically controlled switching behavior of polypyrrole film, and one for the galvanostatically controlled charge/discharge behavior of lithium/polypyrrole secondary battery cell. The first model is used to predict the profiles of electrolyte concentrations, charge states, and electrochemical potentials within the thin polypyrrole film during switching process as functions of applied potential and position. Thus, the detailed mechanisms of charge transport and electrochemical reaction can be understood. Sensitivity analysis is performed for independent parameters, describing the physical and electrochemical characteristic of polypyrrole film, to verify their influences on the model performance. The values of independent parameters are estimated by comparing model predictions with experimental data obtained from identical conditions. The second model is used to predict the profiles of electrolyte concentrations, charge state, and electrochemical potentials within the battery system during charge and discharge processes as functions of time and position. Energy and power densities are estimated from model predictions and compared with existing battery systems. The independent design criteria on the charge and discharge performance of the cell are provided by studying the effects of design parameters.

Optimization of Control Strategies for Non-Domiciliated Triatoma dimidiata, Chagas Disease Vector in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico

PubMed Central

Barbu, Corentin; Dumonteil, Eric; Gourbière, Sébastien

2009-01-01

Background Chagas disease is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. Regional initiatives based on residual insecticide spraying have successfully controlled domiciliated vectors in many regions. Non-domiciliated vectors remain responsible for a significant transmission risk, and their control is now a key challenge for disease control. Methodology/Principal Findings A mathematical model was developed to predict the temporal variations in abundance of non-domiciliated vectors inside houses. Demographic parameters were estimated by fitting the model to two years of field data from the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico. The predictive value of the model was tested on an independent data set before simulations examined the efficacy of control strategies based on residual insecticide spraying, insect screens, and bednets. The model accurately fitted and predicted field data in the absence and presence of insecticide spraying. Pyrethroid spraying was found effective when 50 mg/m2 were applied yearly within a two-month period matching the immigration season. The >80% reduction in bug abundance was not improved by larger doses or more frequent interventions, and it decreased drastically for different timing and lower frequencies of intervention. Alternatively, the use of insect screens consistently reduced bug abundance proportionally to the reduction of the vector immigration rate. Conclusion/Significance Control of non-domiciliated vectors can hardly be achieved by insecticide spraying, because it would require yearly application and an accurate understanding of the temporal pattern of immigration. Insect screens appear to offer an effective and sustainable alternative, which may be part of multi-disease interventions for the integrated control of neglected vector-borne diseases. PMID:19365542

Broadband Fan Noise Generated by Small Scale Turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glegg, Stewart A. L.

1998-01-01

This report describes the development of prediction methods for broadband fan noise from aircraft engines. First, experimental evidence of the most important source mechanisms is reviewed. It is found that there are a number of competing source mechanism involved and that there is no single dominant source to which noise control procedures can be applied. Theoretical models are then developed for: (1) ducted rotors and stator vanes interacting with duct wall boundary layers, (2) ducted rotor self noise, and (3) stator vanes operating in the wakes of rotors. All the turbulence parameters required for these models are based on measured quantities. Finally the theoretical models are used to predict measured fan noise levels with some success.

Effects of time delay and pitch control sensitivity in the flared landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berthe, C. J.; Chalk, C. R.; Wingarten, N. C.; Grantham, W.

1986-01-01

Between December 1985 and January 1986, a flared landing program was conducted, using the USAF Total In-Flight simulator airplane, to examine time delay effects in a formal manner. Results show that as pitch sensitivity is increased, tolerance to time delay decreases. With the proper selection of pitch sensitivity, Level I performance was maintained with time delays ranging from 150 milliseconds to greater than 300 milliseconds. With higher sensitivity, configurations with Level I performance at 150 milliseconds degraded to level 2 at 200 milliseconds. When metrics of time delay and pitch sensitivity effects are applied to enhance previously developed predictive criteria, the result is an improved prediction technique which accounts for significant closed loop items.

Establishing best practise in the application of expert review of mutagenicity under ICH M7.

PubMed

Barber, Chris; Amberg, Alexander; Custer, Laura; Dobo, Krista L; Glowienke, Susanne; Van Gompel, Jacky; Gutsell, Steve; Harvey, Jim; Honma, Masamitsu; Kenyon, Michelle O; Kruhlak, Naomi; Muster, Wolfgang; Stavitskaya, Lidiya; Teasdale, Andrew; Vessey, Jonathan; Wichard, Joerg

2015-10-01

The ICH M7 guidelines for the assessment and control of DNA reactive (mutagenic) impurities in pharmaceuticals allows for the consideration of in silico predictions in place of in vitro studies. This represents a significant advance in the acceptance of (Q)SAR models and has resulted from positive interactions between modellers, regulatory agencies and industry with a shared purpose of developing effective processes to minimise risk. This paper discusses key scientific principles that should be applied when evaluating in silico predictions with a focus on accuracy and scientific rigour that will support a consistent and practical route to regulatory submission. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Transonic small disturbances equation applied to the solution of two-dimensional nonsteady flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Couston, M.; Angelini, J. J.; Mulak, P.

1980-01-01

Transonic nonsteady flows are of large practical interest. Aeroelastic instability prediction, control figured vehicle techniques or rotary wings in forward flight are some examples justifying the effort undertaken to improve knowledge of these problems is described. The numerical solution of these problems under the potential flow hypothesis is described. The use of an alternating direction implicit scheme allows the efficient resolution of the two dimensional transonic small perturbations equation.

Preliminary Report on Free Flight Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warner, E P; Norton, F H

1920-01-01

Results are presented for a series of tests made by the Advisory Committee's staff at Langley Field during the summer of 1919 with the objectives of determining the characteristics of airplanes in flight and the extent to which the actual characteristics differ from those predicted from tests on models in the wind tunnel, and of studying the balance of the machines and the forces which must be applied to the controls in order to maintain longitudinal equilibrium.

Spatial Brain Control Interface using Optical and Electrophysiological Measures

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-27

appropriate for implementing a reliable brain-computer interface ( BCI ). The LSVM method 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 27-08-2013 13...Machine (LSVM) was the most appropriate for implementing a reliable brain-computer interface ( BCI ). The LSVM method was applied to the imaging data...local field potentials proved to be fast and strongly tuned for the spatial parameters of the task. Thus, a reliable BCI that can predict upcoming

Predicting free-living energy expenditure using a miniaturized ear-worn sensor: an evaluation against doubly labeled water.

PubMed

Bouarfa, Loubna; Atallah, Louis; Kwasnicki, Richard Mark; Pettitt, Claire; Frost, Gary; Yang, Guang-Zhong

2014-02-01

Accurate estimation of daily total energy expenditure (EE)is a prerequisite for assisted weight management and assessing certain health conditions. The use of wearable sensors for predicting free-living EE is challenged by consistent sensor placement, user compliance, and estimation methods used. This paper examines whether a single ear-worn accelerometer can be used for EE estimation under free-living conditions.An EE prediction model as first derived and validated in a controlled setting using healthy subjects involving different physical activities. Ten different activities were assessed showing a tenfold cross validation error of 0.24. Furthermore, the EE prediction model shows a mean absolute deviation(MAD) below 1.2 metabolic equivalent of tasks. The same model was applied to a free-living setting with a different population for further validation. The results were compared against those derived from doubly labeled water. In free-living settings, the predicted daily EE has a correlation of 0.74, p 0.008, and a MAD of 272 kcal day. These results demonstrate that laboratory-derived prediction models can be used to predict EE under free-living conditions [corrected].

Collaborative Research: Separating Forced and Unforced Decadal Predictability in Models and Observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tippett, Michael K.

2014-04-09

This report is a progress report of the accomplishments of the research grant “Collaborative Research: Separating Forced and Unforced Decadal Predictability in Models and Observa- tions” during the period 1 May 2011- 31 August 2013. This project is a collaborative one between Columbia University and George Mason University. George Mason University will submit a final technical report at the conclusion of their no-cost extension. The purpose of the proposed research is to identify unforced predictable components on decadal time scales, distinguish these components from forced predictable components, and to assess the reliability of model predictions of these components. Components ofmore » unforced decadal predictability will be isolated by maximizing the Average Predictability Time (APT) in long, multimodel control runs from state-of-the-art climate models. Components with decadal predictability have large APT, so maximizing APT ensures that components with decadal predictability will be detected. Optimal fingerprinting techniques, as used in detection and attribution analysis, will be used to separate variations due to natural and anthropogenic forcing from those due to unforced decadal predictability. This methodology will be applied to the decadal hindcasts generated by the CMIP5 project to assess the reliability of model projections. The question of whether anthropogenic forcing changes decadal predictability, or gives rise to new forms of decadal predictability, also will be investigated.« less

Predictive capacity of a non-radioisotopic local lymph node assay using flow cytometry, LLNA:BrdU-FCM: Comparison of a cutoff approach and inferential statistics.

PubMed

Kim, Da-Eun; Yang, Hyeri; Jang, Won-Hee; Jung, Kyoung-Mi; Park, Miyoung; Choi, Jin Kyu; Jung, Mi-Sook; Jeon, Eun-Young; Heo, Yong; Yeo, Kyung-Wook; Jo, Ji-Hoon; Park, Jung Eun; Sohn, Soo Jung; Kim, Tae Sung; Ahn, Il Young; Jeong, Tae-Cheon; Lim, Kyung-Min; Bae, SeungJin

2016-01-01

In order for a novel test method to be applied for regulatory purposes, its reliability and relevance, i.e., reproducibility and predictive capacity, must be demonstrated. Here, we examine the predictive capacity of a novel non-radioisotopic local lymph node assay, LLNA:BrdU-FCM (5-bromo-2'-deoxyuridine-flow cytometry), with a cutoff approach and inferential statistics as a prediction model. 22 reference substances in OECD TG429 were tested with a concurrent positive control, hexylcinnamaldehyde 25%(PC), and the stimulation index (SI) representing the fold increase in lymph node cells over the vehicle control was obtained. The optimal cutoff SI (2.7≤cutoff <3.5), with respect to predictive capacity, was obtained by a receiver operating characteristic curve, which produced 90.9% accuracy for the 22 substances. To address the inter-test variability in responsiveness, SI values standardized with PC were employed to obtain the optimal percentage cutoff (42.6≤cutoff <57.3% of PC), which produced 86.4% accuracy. A test substance may be diagnosed as a sensitizer if a statistically significant increase in SI is elicited. The parametric one-sided t-test and non-parametric Wilcoxon rank-sum test produced 77.3% accuracy. Similarly, a test substance could be defined as a sensitizer if the SI means of the vehicle control, and of the low, middle, and high concentrations were statistically significantly different, which was tested using ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis, with post hoc analysis, Dunnett, or DSCF (Dwass-Steel-Critchlow-Fligner), respectively, depending on the equal variance test, producing 81.8% accuracy. The absolute SI-based cutoff approach produced the best predictive capacity, however the discordant decisions between prediction models need to be examined further. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting riverine dissolved silica fluxes by chemical weathering: results from a hyperactive region and analysis of first-order controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Jens; Jansen, Nils; Dürr, Hans H.; Harashima, Akira; Okubo, Kenji; Kempe, Stephan

2010-05-01

Silicate weathering and resulting transport of dissolved matter influence the global carbon cycle in two ways. First, by the uptake of atmospheric/soil CO2, and second, by providing the oceanic ecosystems via the fluvial systems with the nutrient dissolved silica (DSi). Previous work suggests that regions dominated by volcanics are hyperactive or even 'hot spots' concerning DSi-mobilization from the critical zone. Here, we present a new approach for predicting riverine DSi-fluxes by chemical weathering, emphasizing 'first-order' controlling factors (lithology, runoff, relief, land cover and temperature). This approach is applied to the Japanese Archipelago, a region characterized by a high percentage of volcanics (29.1% of surface area). The presented DSi-flux model is based on data of 516 catchments, covering approximately 56.7% of the area of the Japanese Archipelago. The spatial distribution of lithology - one of the most important first order controls - is taken from a new, high resolution map of Japan. Results show that the Japanese Archipelago is a hyperactive region with a specific DSi-yield 6.6 times higher than the world average of 3.3 t SiO2 km-2 a-1, but with large regional variations. Approximately 10% of its area exceeds 10 times the world average specific DSi-yield. Slope constitutes another important controlling factor on the mobilization of DSi-fluxes from the critical zone, besides lithology and runoff, and can exceed the influence of runoff on specific DSi-yields. Even though the monitored area on the Japanese Archipelago stretches from about 31° to 46° N, temperature is not identified as a significant first-order model variable. This may be due to the fact that slope, runoff and lithology are correlated with temperature due to regional settings of the Archipelago, and temperature information is substituted to a certain extent by these factors. Land cover data also do not improve the prediction model. This may partly be attributed to misinterpreted land cover information from satellite images. Implications of results for chemical weathering rates based on lithological information applied are discussed. Reference: Hartmann, J., Jansen, N., Dürr, H.H., Harashima, A., Okubo, K., Kempe S. (2010) Predicting riverine dissolved silica fluxes into coastal zones from a hyperactive region and analysis of their first order controls. International Journal of Earth Sciences, 99(1), 207-230. doi:10.1007/s00531-008-0381-5.

Demand theory of gene regulation. II. Quantitative application to the lactose and maltose operons of Escherichia coli.

PubMed Central

Savageau, M A

1998-01-01

Induction of gene expression can be accomplished either by removing a restraining element (negative mode of control) or by providing a stimulatory element (positive mode of control). According to the demand theory of gene regulation, which was first presented in qualitative form in the 1970s, the negative mode will be selected for the control of a gene whose function is in low demand in the organism's natural environment, whereas the positive mode will be selected for the control of a gene whose function is in high demand. This theory has now been further developed in a quantitative form that reveals the importance of two key parameters: cycle time C, which is the average time for a gene to complete an ON/OFF cycle, and demand D, which is the fraction of the cycle time that the gene is ON. Here we estimate nominal values for the relevant mutation rates and growth rates and apply the quantitative demand theory to the lactose and maltose operons of Escherichia coli. The results define regions of the C vs. D plot within which selection for the wild-type regulatory mechanisms is realizable, and these in turn provide the first estimates for the minimum and maximum values of demand that are required for selection of the positive and negative modes of gene control found in these systems. The ratio of mutation rate to selection coefficient is the most relevant determinant of the realizable region for selection, and the most influential parameter is the selection coefficient that reflects the reduction in growth rate when there is superfluous expression of a gene. The quantitative theory predicts the rate and extent of selection for each mode of control. It also predicts three critical values for the cycle time. The predicted maximum value for the cycle time C is consistent with the lifetime of the host. The predicted minimum value for C is consistent with the time for transit through the intestinal tract without colonization. Finally, the theory predicts an optimum value of C that is in agreement with the observed frequency for E. coli colonizing the human intestinal tract. PMID:9691028

A framework for the use of single-chemical transcriptomics data in predicting the hazards associated with complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

PubMed

Labib, Sarah; Williams, Andrew; Kuo, Byron; Yauk, Carole L; White, Paul A; Halappanavar, Sabina

2017-07-01

The assumption of additivity applied in the risk assessment of environmental mixtures containing carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was investigated using transcriptomics. MutaTMMouse were gavaged for 28 days with three doses of eight individual PAHs, two defined mixtures of PAHs, or coal tar, an environmentally ubiquitous complex mixture of PAHs. Microarrays were used to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in lung tissue collected 3 days post-exposure. Cancer-related pathways perturbed by the individual or mixtures of PAHs were identified, and dose-response modeling of the DEGs was conducted to calculate gene/pathway benchmark doses (BMDs). Individual PAH-induced pathway perturbations (the median gene expression changes for all genes in a pathway relative to controls) and pathway BMDs were applied to models of additivity [i.e., concentration addition (CA), generalized concentration addition (GCA), and independent action (IA)] to generate predicted pathway-specific dose-response curves for each PAH mixture. The predicted and observed pathway dose-response curves were compared to assess the sensitivity of different additivity models. Transcriptomics-based additivity calculation showed that IA accurately predicted the pathway perturbations induced by all mixtures of PAHs. CA did not support the additivity assumption for the defined mixtures; however, GCA improved the CA predictions. Moreover, pathway BMDs derived for coal tar were comparable to BMDs derived from previously published coal tar-induced mouse lung tumor incidence data. These results suggest that in the absence of tumor incidence data, individual chemical-induced transcriptomics changes associated with cancer can be used to investigate the assumption of additivity and to predict the carcinogenic potential of a mixture.

NoGOA: predicting noisy GO annotations using evidences and sparse representation.

PubMed

Yu, Guoxian; Lu, Chang; Wang, Jun

2017-07-21

Gene Ontology (GO) is a community effort to represent functional features of gene products. GO annotations (GOA) provide functional associations between GO terms and gene products. Due to resources limitation, only a small portion of annotations are manually checked by curators, and the others are electronically inferred. Although quality control techniques have been applied to ensure the quality of annotations, the community consistently report that there are still considerable noisy (or incorrect) annotations. Given the wide application of annotations, however, how to identify noisy annotations is an important but yet seldom studied open problem. We introduce a novel approach called NoGOA to predict noisy annotations. NoGOA applies sparse representation on the gene-term association matrix to reduce the impact of noisy annotations, and takes advantage of sparse representation coefficients to measure the semantic similarity between genes. Secondly, it preliminarily predicts noisy annotations of a gene based on aggregated votes from semantic neighborhood genes of that gene. Next, NoGOA estimates the ratio of noisy annotations for each evidence code based on direct annotations in GOA files archived on different periods, and then weights entries of the association matrix via estimated ratios and propagates weights to ancestors of direct annotations using GO hierarchy. Finally, it integrates evidence-weighted association matrix and aggregated votes to predict noisy annotations. Experiments on archived GOA files of six model species (H. sapiens, A. thaliana, S. cerevisiae, G. gallus, B. Taurus and M. musculus) demonstrate that NoGOA achieves significantly better results than other related methods and removing noisy annotations improves the performance of gene function prediction. The comparative study justifies the effectiveness of integrating evidence codes with sparse representation for predicting noisy GO annotations. Codes and datasets are available at http://mlda.swu.edu.cn/codes.php?name=NoGOA .

Artificial Neural Networks: A New Approach to Predicting Application Behavior.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gonzalez, Julie M. Byers; DesJardins, Stephen L.

2002-01-01

Applied the technique of artificial neural networks to predict which students were likely to apply to one research university. Compared the results to the traditional analysis tool, logistic regression modeling. Found that the addition of artificial intelligence models was a useful new tool for predicting student application behavior. (EV)

Control of Flow Structure in Square Cross-Sectioned U Bend using Numerical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yavuz, Mehmet Metin; Guden, Yigitcan

2014-11-01

Due to the curvature in U-bends, the flow development involves complex flow structures including Dean vortices and high levels of turbulence that are quite critical in considering noise problems and structural failure of the ducts. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models are developed using ANSYS Fluent to analyze and to control the flow structure in a square cross-sectioned U-bend with a radius of curvature Rc/D = 0.65. The predictions of velocity profiles on different angular positions of the U-bend are compared against the experimental results available in the literature and the previous numerical studies. The performances of different turbulence models are evaluated to propose the best numerical approach that has high accuracy with reduced computation time. The numerical results of the present study indicate improvements with respect to the previous numerical predictions and very good agreement with the available experimental results. In addition, a flow control technique is utilized to regulate the flow inside the bend. The elimination of Dean vortices along with significant reduction in turbulence levels in different cross flow planes are successfully achieved when the flow control technique is applied. The project is supported by Meteksan Defense Industries, Inc.

Evaluation of MM5 model resolution when applied to prediction of national fire danger rating indexes

Treesearch

Jeanne L. Hoadley; Miriam L. Rorig; Larry Bradshaw; Sue A. Ferguson; Kenneth J. Westrick; Scott L. Goodrick; Paul Werth

2006-01-01

Weather predictions from the MM5 mesoscale model were used to compute gridded predictions of National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) indexes. The model output was applied to a case study of the 2000 fire season in Northern Idaho and Western Montana to simulate an extreme event. To determine the preferred resolution for automating NFD RS predictions, model...

Anti AIDS drug design with the help of neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tetko, I. V.; Tanchuk, V. Yu.; Luik, A. I.

1995-04-01

Artificial neural networks were used to analyze and predict the human immunodefiency virus type 1 reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Training and control set included 44 molecules (most of them are well-known substances such as AZT, TIBO, dde, etc.) The biological activities of molecules were taken from literature and rated for two classes: active and inactive compounds according to their values. We used topological indices as molecular parameters. Four most informative parameters (out of 46) were chosen using cluster analysis and original input parameters' estimation procedure and were used to predict activities of both control and new (synthesized in our institute) molecules. We applied pruning network algorithm and network ensembles to obtain the final classifier and avoid chance correlation. The increasing of neural network generalization of the data from the control set was observed, when using the aforementioned methods. The prognosis of new molecules revealed one molecule as possibly active. It was confirmed by further biological tests. The compound was as active as AZT and in order less toxic. The active compound is currently being evaluated in pre clinical trials as possible drug for anti-AIDS therapy.

The relationship between drug use and sexual aggression in men across time.

PubMed

Swartout, Kevin M; White, Jacquelyn W

2010-09-01

The relationship between drug use and sexual aggression in a sample of men was examined at five time points from adolescence through the 4th year of college. Hierarchical linear modeling explored the relationship between proximal drug use and severity of sexual aggression after controlling for proximal alcohol use at each time period. Results revealed that proximal drug use was associated with sexual aggression severity: Increased drug use predicted increased severity of sexual aggression across time. A second set of analyses explored the relationship between distal marijuana use and severity of sexual aggression after controlling for distal alcohol use. Results indicated that increased marijuana use predicted increased severity of sexual aggression across time. A third set of analyses explored the relationship between distal use of other illicit drugs and severity of sexual aggression after controlling for distal alcohol use. Results mirrored those of the second set of analyses and are discussed in terms of drug use as a component of deviant lifestyles that may include sexually aggressive behavior, including implications for applied settings.

The relation of locus-of-control orientation and task structure to problem-solving performance of sixth-grade student pairs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Main, June Dewey; Budd Rowe, Mary

This study investigated the relationship of locus-of-control orientations and task structure to the science problem-solving performance of 100 same-sex, sixth-grade student pairs. Pairs performed a four-variable problem-solving task, racing cylinders down a ramp in a series of trials to determine the 3 fastest of 18 different cylinders. The task was completed in one of two treatment conditions: the structured condition with moderate cuing and the unstructured condition with minimal cuing. Pairs completed an after-task assessment, predicting the results of proposed cylinder races, to measure the ability to understand and apply task concepts. Overall conclusions were: (1) There was no relationship between locus-of-control orientation and effectiveness of problem-solving strategy; (2) internality was significantly related to higher accuracy on task solutions and on after-task predictions; (3) there was no significant relationship between task structure and effectiveness of problem-solving strategy; (4) solutions to the task were more accurate in the unstructured task condition; (5) internality related to more accurate solutions in the unstructured task condition.

A Constitutive Model for Strain-Controlled Strength Degradation of Rockmasses (SDR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalos, A.; Kavvadas, M.

2017-11-01

The paper describes a continuum, rate-independent, incremental plasticity constitutive model applicable in weak rocks and heavily fractured rockmasses, where mechanical behaviour is controlled by rockmass strength rather than structural features (discontinuities). The model describes rockmass structure by a generalised Hoek-Brown Structure Envelope (SE) in the stress space. Stress paths inside the SE are nonlinear and irreversible to better simulate behaviour at strains up to peak strength and under stress reversals. Stress paths on the SE have user-controlled volume dilatancy (gradually reducing to zero at large shear strains) and can model post-peak strain softening of brittle rockmasses via a structure degradation (damage) mechanism triggered by accumulated plastic shear strains. As the SE may strain harden with plastic strains, ductile behaviour can also be modelled. The model was implemented in the Finite Element Code Simulia ABAQUS and was applied in plane strain (2D) excavation of a cylindrical cavity (tunnel) to predict convergence-confinement curves. It is shown that small-strain nonlinearity, variable volume dilatancy and post-peak hardening/softening strongly affect the predicted curves, resulting in corresponding differences of lining pressures in real tunnel excavations.

Neural correlates of sensory prediction errors in monkeys: evidence for internal models of voluntary self-motion in the cerebellum.

PubMed

Cullen, Kathleen E; Brooks, Jessica X

2015-02-01

During self-motion, the vestibular system makes essential contributions to postural stability and self-motion perception. To ensure accurate perception and motor control, it is critical to distinguish between vestibular sensory inputs that are the result of externally applied motion (exafference) and that are the result of our own actions (reafference). Indeed, although the vestibular sensors encode vestibular afference and reafference with equal fidelity, neurons at the first central stage of sensory processing selectively encode vestibular exafference. The mechanism underlying this reafferent suppression compares the brain's motor-based expectation of sensory feedback with the actual sensory consequences of voluntary self-motion, effectively computing the sensory prediction error (i.e., exafference). It is generally thought that sensory prediction errors are computed in the cerebellum, yet it has been challenging to explicitly demonstrate this. We have recently addressed this question and found that deep cerebellar nuclei neurons explicitly encode sensory prediction errors during self-motion. Importantly, in everyday life, sensory prediction errors occur in response to changes in the effector or world (muscle strength, load, etc.), as well as in response to externally applied sensory stimulation. Accordingly, we hypothesize that altering the relationship between motor commands and the actual movement parameters will result in the updating in the cerebellum-based computation of exafference. If our hypothesis is correct, under these conditions, neuronal responses should initially be increased--consistent with a sudden increase in the sensory prediction error. Then, over time, as the internal model is updated, response modulation should decrease in parallel with a reduction in sensory prediction error, until vestibular reafference is again suppressed. The finding that the internal model predicting the sensory consequences of motor commands adapts for new relationships would have important implications for understanding how responses to passive stimulation endure despite the cerebellum's ability to learn new relationships between motor commands and sensory feedback.

Evaluation of Turbulence-Model Performance as Applied to Jet-Noise Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodruff, S. L.; Seiner, J. M.; Hussaini, M. Y.; Erlebacher, G.

1998-01-01

The accurate prediction of jet noise is possible only if the jet flow field can be predicted accurately. Predictions for the mean velocity and turbulence quantities in the jet flowfield are typically the product of a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solver coupled with a turbulence model. To evaluate the effectiveness of solvers and turbulence models in predicting those quantities most important to jet noise prediction, two CFD codes and several turbulence models were applied to a jet configuration over a range of jet temperatures for which experimental data is available.

Self-regulation of Exercise Behavior in the TIGER Study

PubMed Central

Dishman, Rod K.; Jackson, Andrew S.; Bray, Molly S.

2014-01-01

Objective To test experiential and behavioral processes of change as mediators of the prediction of exercise behavior by two self-regulation traits, self-efficacy and self-motivation, while controlling for exercise enjoyment. Methods Structural equation modeling was applied to questionnaire responses obtained from a diverse sample of participants. Objective measures defined adherence (928 of 1279 participants attended 80% or more of sessions) and compliance (867 of 1145 participants exercised 30 minutes or more each session at their prescribed heart rate). Results Prediction of attendance by self-efficacy (inversely) and self-motivation was direct and also indirect, mediated through positive relations with the typical use of behavioral change processes. Enjoyment and self-efficacy (inversely) predicted compliance with the exercise prescription. Conclusions The results support the usefulness of self-regulatory behavioral processes of the Transtheoretical Model for predicting exercise adherence, but not compliance, extending the supportive evidence for self-regulation beyond self-reports of physical activity used in prior observational studies. PMID:24311018

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simonetto, Andrea; Dall'Anese, Emiliano

This article develops online algorithms to track solutions of time-varying constrained optimization problems. Particularly, resembling workhorse Kalman filtering-based approaches for dynamical systems, the proposed methods involve prediction-correction steps to provably track the trajectory of the optimal solutions of time-varying convex problems. The merits of existing prediction-correction methods have been shown for unconstrained problems and for setups where computing the inverse of the Hessian of the cost function is computationally affordable. This paper addresses the limitations of existing methods by tackling constrained problems and by designing first-order prediction steps that rely on the Hessian of the cost function (and do notmore » require the computation of its inverse). In addition, the proposed methods are shown to improve the convergence speed of existing prediction-correction methods when applied to unconstrained problems. Numerical simulations corroborate the analytical results and showcase performance and benefits of the proposed algorithms. A realistic application of the proposed method to real-time control of energy resources is presented.« less

Machine learning of structural magnetic resonance imaging predicts psychopathic traits in adolescent offenders.

PubMed

Steele, Vaughn R; Rao, Vikram; Calhoun, Vince D; Kiehl, Kent A

2017-01-15

Classification models are becoming useful tools for finding patterns in neuroimaging data sets that are not observable to the naked eye. Many of these models are applied to discriminating clinical groups such as schizophrenic patients from healthy controls or from patients with bipolar disorder. A more nuanced model might be to discriminate between levels of personality traits. Here, as a proof of concept, we take an initial step toward developing prediction models to differentiate individuals based on a personality disorder: psychopathy. We included three groups of adolescent participants: incarcerated youth with elevated psychopathic traits (i.e., callous and unemotional traits and conduct disordered traits; n=71), incarcerated youth with low psychopathic traits (n=72), and non-incarcerated youth as healthy controls (n=21). Support vector machine (SVM) learning models were developed to separate these groups using an out-of-sample cross-validation method on voxel-based morphometry (VBM) data. Regions of interest from the paralimbic system, identified in an independent forensic sample, were successful in differentiating youth groups. Models seeking to classify incarcerated individuals to have high or low psychopathic traits achieved 69.23% overall accuracy. As expected, accuracy increased in models differentiating healthy controls from individuals with high psychopathic traits (82.61%) and low psychopathic traits (80.65%). Here we have laid the foundation for using neural correlates of personality traits to identify group membership within and beyond psychopathy. This is only the first step, of many, toward prediction models using neural measures as a proxy for personality traits. As these methods are improved, prediction models with neural measures of personality traits could have far-reaching impact on diagnosis, treatment, and prediction of future behavior. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Machine Learning of Structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging Predicts Psychopathic Traits in Adolescent Offenders

PubMed Central

Steele, Vaughn R.; Rao, Vikram; Calhoun, Vince D.; Kiehl, Kent A.

2015-01-01

Classification models are becoming useful tools for finding patterns in neuroimaging data sets that are not observable to the naked eye. Many of these models are applied to discriminating clinical groups such as schizophrenic patients from healthy controls or from patients with bipolar disorder. A more nuanced model might be to discriminate between levels of personality traits. Here, as a proof-of-concept, we take an initial step toward developing prediction models to differentiate individuals based on a personality disorder: psychopathy. We included three groups of adolescent participants: incarcerated youth with elevated psychopathic traits (i.e., callous and unemotional traits and conduct disordered traits; n = 71), incarcerated youth with low psychopathic traits (n =72), and non-incarcerated youth as healthy controls (n = 21). Support vector machine (SVM) learning models were developed to separate these groups using an out-of-sample cross-validation method on voxel-based morphometry (VBM) data. Regions-of-interest from the paralimbic system, identified in an independent forensic sample, were successful in differentiating youth groups. Models seeking to classify incarcerated individuals to have high or low psychopathic traits achieved 69.23% overall accuracy. As expected, accuracy increased in models differentiating healthy controls from individuals with high psychopathic traits (82.61%) and low psychopathic traits (80.65%). Here we have laid the foundation for using neural correlates of personality traits to identify group membership within and beyond psychopathy. This is only the first step, of many, toward prediction models using neural measures as a proxy for personality traits. As these methods are improved, prediction models with neural measures of personality traits could have far-reaching impact on diagnosis, treatment, and prediction of future behavior. PMID:26690808

Real‐time monitoring and control of the load phase of a protein A capture step

PubMed Central

Rüdt, Matthias; Brestrich, Nina; Rolinger, Laura

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT The load phase in preparative Protein A capture steps is commonly not controlled in real‐time. The load volume is generally based on an offline quantification of the monoclonal antibody (mAb) prior to loading and on a conservative column capacity determined by resin‐life time studies. While this results in a reduced productivity in batch mode, the bottleneck of suitable real‐time analytics has to be overcome in order to enable continuous mAb purification. In this study, Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS) modeling on UV/Vis absorption spectra was applied to quantify mAb in the effluent of a Protein A capture step during the load phase. A PLS model based on several breakthrough curves with variable mAb titers in the HCCF was successfully calibrated. The PLS model predicted the mAb concentrations in the effluent of a validation experiment with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.06 mg/mL. The information was applied to automatically terminate the load phase, when a product breakthrough of 1.5 mg/mL was reached. In a second part of the study, the sensitivity of the method was further increased by only considering small mAb concentrations in the calibration and by subtracting an impurity background signal. The resulting PLS model exhibited a RMSE of prediction of 0.01 mg/mL and was successfully applied to terminate the load phase, when a product breakthrough of 0.15 mg/mL was achieved. The proposed method has hence potential for the real‐time monitoring and control of capture steps at large scale production. This might enhance the resin capacity utilization, eliminate time‐consuming offline analytics, and contribute to the realization of continuous processing. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2017;114: 368–373. © 2016 The Authors. Biotechnology and Bioengineering published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27543789

Prediction of a nail polish colour applied on a nail.

PubMed

Monpeurt, C; Cinotti, E; Razafindrakoto, J; Rubegni, P; Fimiani, M; Perrot, J L; Hebert, M

2018-02-01

The colour of a nail polish varies according to the nail on which it is applied. The objective of this study was to predict the colour of the nail polish on a given nail and to study how the colour varies depending on the nail polish thickness. Six nail polishes were applied in one, two and three layers on the nails of one subject, thus forming eighteen samples. The spectral reflectances of the eighteen nail polishes applied on the nails with different thicknesses were obtained by spectrophotometry. The spectral reflectances of the nails without polish were also measured using the same technique. The thicknesses of nail polishes were measured by high-definition optical coherence tomography (HD-OCT). Then, to determine the physical parameters of the nail polish itself, we applied the six nail polishes on an opacity drawdown chart and we measured the spectral reflectance and the thickness of each patch using spectrophotometry and HD-OCT, respectively. The Kubelka-Munk theory was used to get the predicted spectral reflectance of the nail polish applied on the nail according to the polish thickness by knowing the parameter of the polish itself and the spectral reflectance of the nail. The predicted spectral reflectances were finally compared with those measured directly on the nails. The predicted spectral reflectances were rather close to measured ones. Consequently, knowing the colour of the nail without polish and the optical parameters of the nail polish itself, we can estimate the colour of the nail polish applied on the nail depending on its thickness. Our study showed that the Kubelka-Munk theory can be used to predict the nail polish colour. The ability to predict the real colour of a nail polish applied on a nail could help a nail polish manufacturer to improve his polish formulae in order to obtain a precise colour. © 2017 Society of Cosmetic Scientists and the Société Française de Cosmétologie.

Control-Structure-Interaction (CSI) technologies and trends to future NASA missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

Control-structure-interaction (CSI) issues which are relevant for future NASA missions are reviewed. This goal was achieved by: (1) reviewing large space structures (LSS) technologies to provide a background and survey of the current state of the art (SOA); (2) analytically studying a focus mission to identify opportunities where CSI technology may be applied to enhance or enable future NASA spacecraft; and (3) expanding a portion of the focus mission, the large antenna, to provide in-depth trade studies, scaling laws, and methodologies which may be applied to other NASA missions. Several sections are presented. Section 1 defines CSI issues and presents an overview of the relevant modeling and control issues for LLS. Section 2 presents the results of the three phases of the CSI study. Section 2.1 gives the results of a CSI study conducted with the Geostationary Platform (Geoplat) as the focus mission. Section 2.2 contains an overview of the CSI control design methodology available in the technical community. Included is a survey of the CSI ground-based experiments which were conducted to verify theoretical performance predictions. Section 2.3 presents and demonstrates a new CSI scaling law methodology for assessing potential CSI with large antenna systems.

Hydrologic Controls on Shallow Landslide Location, Size, and Shape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellugi, D.; Milledge, D.; Perron, T.; McKean, J. A.; Dietrich, W.; Rulli, M.

2012-12-01

Shallow landslides, typically involving just the soil mantle, are principally controlled by topography, soil and root strengths, and soil thickness, and are typically triggered by storm-induced increases in pore water pressure. The response of a landscape to landslide-triggering storms will thus depend on factors such as rainfall totals, storm intensity and duration, and antecedent moisture conditions. The two dominant mechanisms that generate high pore water pressures at a point are topographically-steered lateral subsurface flow (over timescales of days to weeks), and rapid vertical infiltration (over timescales of minutes to hours). We aim to understand the impact of different storm characteristics and hydrologic regimes on shallow landslide location, size, and shape. We have developed a regional-scale model, which applies a low-parameter grid-based multi-dimensional slope stability model within a novel search algorithm, to generate discrete landslide predictions. This model shows that the spatial organization of parameters such as root strength and pore water pressure has a strong control on shallow landslide location, size, and shape. We apply this model to a field site near Coos Bay, OR, where a ten-year landslide inventory has been mapped onto high-resolution topographic data. Our model predicts landslide size generally increases with increasing rainfall intensity, except when root strength is extremely high and pore pressures are topographically steered. The distribution of topographic index values (the ratios of contributing area to slope) of predicted landslides is a clear signature of the pore water pressure generation mechanism: as laterally dominated flow increases, landslides develop in locations with lower slopes and higher contributing areas; in contrast, in the case of vertically-dominated pore pressure rise, landslides are consistently found in locations with higher slopes and lower contributing areas. While in both cases landslides are found in the hollows, where the soils are sufficiently deep to overcome the effects of root strength, in the laterally-dominated case they are predicted to occur further down the hollows (which matches field observations). The size distribution of landslides is better predicted in our model when vertical infiltration dominates, but the observed distribution of topographic index values follows that predicted when lateral flow dominates. This suggests that both mechanisms must be taken into account in order to capture both location and size of shallow landslides (consistent with field observations). These results suggest that this modeling approach could allow us to use observed landslide locations and geometries to infer the dominant hydrologic triggering mechanisms. Furthermore, as the spatial and temporal resolution of precipitation forecasting improves, this model will enable us to more accurately predict both location and size of shallow landslides.

A distributed model predictive control scheme for leader-follower multi-agent systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franzè, Giuseppe; Lucia, Walter; Tedesco, Francesco

2018-02-01

In this paper, we present a novel receding horizon control scheme for solving the formation problem of leader-follower configurations. The algorithm is based on set-theoretic ideas and is tuned for agents described by linear time-invariant (LTI) systems subject to input and state constraints. The novelty of the proposed framework relies on the capability to jointly use sequences of one-step controllable sets and polyhedral piecewise state-space partitions in order to online apply the 'better' control action in a distributed receding horizon fashion. Moreover, we prove that the design of both robust positively invariant sets and one-step-ahead controllable regions is achieved in a distributed sense. Simulations and numerical comparisons with respect to centralised and local-based strategies are finally performed on a group of mobile robots to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

Active control of turbomachine discrete tones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleeter, Sanford

1994-01-01

This paper was directed at active control of discrete frequency noise generated by subsonic blade rows through cancellation of the blade row interaction generated propagating acoustic waves. First discrete frequency noise generated by a rotor and stator in a duct was analyzed to determine the propagating acoustic pressure waves. Then a mathematical model was developed to analyze and predict the active control of discrete frequency noise generated by subsonic blade rows through cancellation of the propagating acoustic waves, accomplished by utilizing oscillating airfoil surfaces to generate additional control propagating pressure waves. These control waves interact with the propagating acoustic waves, thereby, in principle, canceling the acoustic waves and thus, the far field discrete frequency tones. This model was then applied to a fan exit guide vane to investigate active airfoil surface techniques for control of the propagating acoustic waves, and thus the far field discrete frequency tones, generated by blade row interactions.

Active control of turbomachine discrete tones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleeter, Sanford

This paper was directed at active control of discrete frequency noise generated by subsonic blade rows through cancellation of the blade row interaction generated propagating acoustic waves. First discrete frequency noise generated by a rotor and stator in a duct was analyzed to determine the propagating acoustic pressure waves. Then a mathematical model was developed to analyze and predict the active control of discrete frequency noise generated by subsonic blade rows through cancellation of the propagating acoustic waves, accomplished by utilizing oscillating airfoil surfaces to generate additional control propagating pressure waves. These control waves interact with the propagating acoustic waves, thereby, in principle, canceling the acoustic waves and thus, the far field discrete frequency tones. This model was then applied to a fan exit guide vane to investigate active airfoil surface techniques for control of the propagating acoustic waves, and thus the far field discrete frequency tones, generated by blade row interactions.

Aircraft Flight Envelope Determination using Upset Detection and Physical Modeling Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, Jeffrey D.; McKillip, Robert M. Jr.; Kim, Singwan

2009-01-01

The development of flight control systems to enhance aircraft safety during periods of vehicle impairment or degraded operations has been the focus of extensive work in recent years. Conditions adversely affecting aircraft flight operations and safety may result from a number of causes, including environmental disturbances, degraded flight operations, and aerodynamic upsets. To enhance the effectiveness of adaptive and envelope limiting controls systems, it is desirable to examine methods for identifying the occurrence of anomalous conditions and for assessing the impact of these conditions on the aircraft operational limits. This paper describes initial work performed toward this end, examining the use of fault detection methods applied to the aircraft for aerodynamic performance degradation identification and model-based methods for envelope prediction. Results are presented in which a model-based fault detection filter is applied to the identification of aircraft control surface and stall departure failures/upsets. This application is supported by a distributed loading aerodynamics formulation for the flight dynamics system reference model. Extensions for estimating the flight envelope due to generalized aerodynamic performance degradation are also described.

Effect of ice on pain after corticosteroid injection in the hand and wrist: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

An, T W; Boone, S L; Boyer, M I; Gelberman, R H; Osei, D A; Calfee, R P

2016-11-01

This prospective, randomized controlled study was designed to determine if applying ice to the site of corticosteroid injections in the hand and wrist reduces post-injection pain. Patients receiving corticosteroid injections in the hand or wrist at a tertiary institution were enrolled. Subjects were randomized to apply ice to the injection site and take scheduled over-the-counter analgesics ( n = 36) or take scheduled over-the-counter analgesics alone ( n = 32). There were no significant differences in the mean pain score between the two groups at any time-point (pre-injection or 1-5 days post-injection). In regression modelling, the application of ice did not predict pain after injection. Visual analogue pain scores increased at least 2 points (0-10 scale) after injection in 17 out of 36 patients in the ice group versus ten out of 32 control patients. We conclude that the application of ice in addition to over-the-counter analgesics does not reduce post-injection pain after corticosteroid injection in the hand or wrist. I Therapeutic Study.

Elucidating dynamic metabolic physiology through network integration of quantitative time-course metabolomics

DOE PAGES

Bordbar, Aarash; Yurkovich, James T.; Paglia, Giuseppe; ...

2017-04-07

In this study, the increasing availability of metabolomics data necessitates novel methods for deeper data analysis and interpretation. We present a flux balance analysis method that allows for the computation of dynamic intracellular metabolic changes at the cellular scale through integration of time-course absolute quantitative metabolomics. This approach, termed “unsteady-state flux balance analysis” (uFBA), is applied to four cellular systems: three dynamic and one steady-state as a negative control. uFBA and FBA predictions are contrasted, and uFBA is found to be more accurate in predicting dynamic metabolic flux states for red blood cells, platelets, and Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Notably, only uFBAmore » predicts that stored red blood cells metabolize TCA intermediates to regenerate important cofactors, such as ATP, NADH, and NADPH. These pathway usage predictions were subsequently validated through 13C isotopic labeling and metabolic flux analysis in stored red blood cells. Utilizing time-course metabolomics data, uFBA provides an accurate method to predict metabolic physiology at the cellular scale for dynamic systems.« less

Elucidating dynamic metabolic physiology through network integration of quantitative time-course metabolomics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bordbar, Aarash; Yurkovich, James T.; Paglia, Giuseppe

In this study, the increasing availability of metabolomics data necessitates novel methods for deeper data analysis and interpretation. We present a flux balance analysis method that allows for the computation of dynamic intracellular metabolic changes at the cellular scale through integration of time-course absolute quantitative metabolomics. This approach, termed “unsteady-state flux balance analysis” (uFBA), is applied to four cellular systems: three dynamic and one steady-state as a negative control. uFBA and FBA predictions are contrasted, and uFBA is found to be more accurate in predicting dynamic metabolic flux states for red blood cells, platelets, and Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Notably, only uFBAmore » predicts that stored red blood cells metabolize TCA intermediates to regenerate important cofactors, such as ATP, NADH, and NADPH. These pathway usage predictions were subsequently validated through 13C isotopic labeling and metabolic flux analysis in stored red blood cells. Utilizing time-course metabolomics data, uFBA provides an accurate method to predict metabolic physiology at the cellular scale for dynamic systems.« less

The backend design of an environmental monitoring system upon real-time prediction of groundwater level fluctuation under the hillslope.

PubMed

Lin, Hsueh-Chun; Hong, Yao-Ming; Kan, Yao-Chiang

2012-01-01

The groundwater level represents a critical factor to evaluate hillside landslides. A monitoring system upon the real-time prediction platform with online analytical functions is important to forecast the groundwater level due to instantaneously monitored data when the heavy precipitation raises the groundwater level under the hillslope and causes instability. This study is to design the backend of an environmental monitoring system with efficient algorithms for machine learning and knowledge bank for the groundwater level fluctuation prediction. A Web-based platform upon the model-view controller-based architecture is established with technology of Web services and engineering data warehouse to support online analytical process and feedback risk assessment parameters for real-time prediction. The proposed system incorporates models of hydrological computation, machine learning, Web services, and online prediction to satisfy varieties of risk assessment requirements and approaches of hazard prevention. The rainfall data monitored from the potential landslide area at Lu-Shan, Nantou and Li-Shan, Taichung, in Taiwan, are applied to examine the system design.

Monitoring and Control of an Adsorption System Using Electrical Properties of the Adsorbent for Organic Compound Abatement.

PubMed

Hu, Ming-Ming; Emamipour, Hamidreza; Johnsen, David L; Rood, Mark J; Song, Linhua; Zhang, Zailong

2017-07-05

Adsorption systems typically need gas and temperature sensors to monitor their adsorption/regeneration cycles to separate gases from gas streams. Activated carbon fiber cloth (ACFC)-electrothermal swing adsorption (ESA) is an adsorption system that has the potential to be controlled with the electrical properties of the adsorbent and is studied here to monitor and control the adsorption/regeneration cycles without the use of gas and temperature sensors and to predict breakthrough before it occurs. The ACFC's electrical resistance was characterized on the basis of the amount of adsorbed organic gas/vapor and the adsorbent temperature. These relationships were then used to develop control logic to monitor and control ESA cycles on the basis of measured resistance and applied power values. Continuous sets of adsorption and regeneration cycles were performed sequentially entirely on the basis of remote electrical measurements and achieved ≥95% capture efficiency at inlet concentrations of 2000 and 4000 ppm v for isobutane, acetone, and toluene in dry and elevated relative humidity gas streams, demonstrating a novel cyclic ESA system that does not require gas or temperature sensors. This contribution is important because it reduces the cost and simplifies the system, predicts breakthrough before its occurrence, and reduces emissions to the atmosphere.

Homeostatic maintenance via degradation and repair of elastic fibers under tension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alves, Calebe; Araújo, Ascanio D.; Oliveira, Cláudio L. N.; Imsirovic, Jasmin; Bartolák-Suki, Erzsébet; Andrade, José S.; Suki, Béla

2016-06-01

Cellular maintenance of the extracellular matrix requires an effective regulation that balances enzymatic degradation with the repair of collagen fibrils and fibers. Here, we investigate the long-term maintenance of elastic fibers under tension combined with diffusion of general degradative and regenerative particles associated with digestion and repair processes. Computational results show that homeostatic fiber stiffness can be achieved by assuming that cells periodically probe fiber stiffness to adjust the production and release of degradative and regenerative particles. However, this mechanism is unable to maintain a homogeneous fiber. To account for axial homogeneity, we introduce a robust control mechanism that is locally governed by how the binding affinity of particles is modulated by mechanical forces applied to the ends of the fiber. This model predicts diameter variations along the fiber that are in agreement with the axial distribution of collagen fibril diameters obtained from scanning electron microscopic images of normal rat thoracic aorta. The model predictions match the experiments only when the applied force on the fiber is in the range where the variance of local stiffness along the fiber takes a minimum value. Our model thus predicts that the biophysical properties of the fibers play an important role in the long-term regulatory maintenance of these fibers.

A personalized medicine approach to the design of dry powder inhalers: Selecting the optimal amount of bypass.

PubMed

Kopsch, Thomas; Murnane, Darragh; Symons, Digby

2017-08-30

In dry powder inhalers (DPIs) the patient's inhalation manoeuvre strongly influences the release of drug. Drug release from a DPI may also be influenced by the size of any air bypass incorporated in the device. If the amount of bypass is high less air flows through the entrainment geometry and the release rate is lower. In this study we propose to reduce the intra- and inter-patient variations of drug release by controlling the amount of air bypass in a DPI. A fast computational method is proposed that can predict how much bypass is needed for a specified drug delivery rate for a particular patient. This method uses a meta-model which was constructed using multiphase computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations. The meta-model is applied in an optimization framework to predict the required amount of bypass needed for drug delivery that is similar to a desired target release behaviour. The meta-model was successfully validated by comparing its predictions to results from additional CFD simulations. The optimization framework has been applied to identify the optimal amount of bypass needed for fictitious sample inhalation manoeuvres in order to deliver a target powder release profile for two patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A model of neuro-musculo-skeletal system for human locomotion under position constraint condition.

PubMed

Ni, Jiangsheng; Hiramatsu, Seiji; Kato, Atsuo

2003-08-01

The human locomotion was studied on the basis of the interaction of the musculo-skeletal system, the neural system and the environment. A mathematical model of human locomotion under position constraint condition was established. Besides the neural rhythm generator, the posture controller and the sensory system, the environment feedback controller and the stability controller were taken into account in the model. The environment feedback controller was proposed for two purposes, obstacle avoidance and target position control of the swing foot. The stability controller was proposed to imitate the self-balancing ability of a human body and improve the stability of the model. In the stability controller, the ankle torque was used to control the velocity of the body gravity center. A prediction control algorithm was applied to calculate the torque magnitude of the stability controller. As an example, human stairs climbing movement was simulated and the results were given. The simulation result proved that the mathematical modeling of the task was successful.

Using an Ecological Land Hierarchy to Predict Seasonal-Wetland Abundance in Upland Forests

Treesearch

Brian J. Palik; Richard Buech; Leanne Egeland

2003-01-01

Hierarchy theory, when applied to landscapes, predicts that broader-scale ecosystems constrain the development of finer-scale, nested ecosystems. This prediction finds application in hierarchical land classifications. Such classifications typically apply to physiognomically similar ecosystems, or ecological land units, e.g., a set of multi-scale forest ecosystems. We...

Linking decision-making research and cancer prevention and control: important themes.

PubMed

McCaul, Kevin D; Peters, Ellen; Nelson, Wendy; Stefanek, Michael

2005-07-01

This article describes 6 themes underlying the multiple presentations from the Basic and Applied Decision Making in Cancer Control meeting, held February 19-20, 2004. The following themes have important implications for research and practice linking basic decision-making research to cancer prevention and control: (a) Traditional decision-making theories fail to capture real-world decision making, (b) decision makers are often unable to predict future preferences, (c) preferences are often constructed on the spot and thus are influenced by situational cues, (d) decision makers often rely on feelings rather than beliefs when making a decision, (e) the perspective of the decision maker is critical in determining preferences, and (f) informed decision making may--or may not--yield the best decisions.

Multidisciplinary Optimization Approach for Design and Operation of Constrained and Complex-shaped Space Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Dae Young

The design of a small satellite is challenging since they are constrained by mass, volume, and power. To mitigate these constraint effects, designers adopt deployable configurations on the spacecraft that result in an interesting and difficult optimization problem. The resulting optimization problem is challenging due to the computational complexity caused by the large number of design variables and the model complexity created by the deployables. Adding to these complexities, there is a lack of integration of the design optimization systems into operational optimization, and the utility maximization of spacecraft in orbit. The developed methodology enables satellite Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) that is extendable to on-orbit operation. Optimization of on-orbit operations is possible with MDO since the model predictive controller developed in this dissertation guarantees the achievement of the on-ground design behavior in orbit. To enable the design optimization of highly constrained and complex-shaped space systems, the spherical coordinate analysis technique, called the "Attitude Sphere", is extended and merged with an additional engineering tools like OpenGL. OpenGL's graphic acceleration facilitates the accurate estimation of the shadow-degraded photovoltaic cell area. This technique is applied to the design optimization of the satellite Electric Power System (EPS) and the design result shows that the amount of photovoltaic power generation can be increased more than 9%. Based on this initial methodology, the goal of this effort is extended from Single Discipline Optimization to Multidisciplinary Optimization, which includes the design and also operation of the EPS, Attitude Determination and Control System (ADCS), and communication system. The geometry optimization satisfies the conditions of the ground development phase; however, the operation optimization may not be as successful as expected in orbit due to disturbances. To address this issue, for the ADCS operations, controllers based on Model Predictive Control that are effective for constraint handling were developed and implemented. All the suggested design and operation methodologies are applied to a mission "CADRE", which is space weather mission scheduled for operation in 2016. This application demonstrates the usefulness and capability of the methodology to enhance CADRE's capabilities, and its ability to be applied to a variety of missions.

Evaluating the Theoretic Adequacy and Applied Potential of Computational Models of the Spacing Effect.

PubMed

Walsh, Matthew M; Gluck, Kevin A; Gunzelmann, Glenn; Jastrzembski, Tiffany; Krusmark, Michael

2018-06-01

The spacing effect is among the most widely replicated empirical phenomena in the learning sciences, and its relevance to education and training is readily apparent. Yet successful applications of spacing effect research to education and training is rare. Computational modeling can provide the crucial link between a century of accumulated experimental data on the spacing effect and the emerging interest in using that research to enable adaptive instruction. In this paper, we review relevant literature and identify 10 criteria for rigorously evaluating computational models of the spacing effect. Five relate to evaluating the theoretic adequacy of a model, and five relate to evaluating its application potential. We use these criteria to evaluate a novel computational model of the spacing effect called the Predictive Performance Equation (PPE). Predictive Performance Equation combines elements of earlier models of learning and memory including the General Performance Equation, Adaptive Control of Thought-Rational, and the New Theory of Disuse, giving rise to a novel computational account of the spacing effect that performs favorably across the complete sets of theoretic and applied criteria. We implemented two other previously published computational models of the spacing effect and compare them to PPE using the theoretic and applied criteria as guides. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Control of volume resistivity in inorganic organic separators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheibley, D. W.; Manzo, M. A.

1979-01-01

Control of resistivity in NASA inorganic-organic separators is achieved by incorporating small percentages of high surface area, fine particle silica with other ingredients in the separator coating. The volume resistivity is predictable from the surface area of filler particles in the coating. The approach is applied to two polymer- plasticizer -filler coating systems, where the filler content of each is below the generally acknowledged critical pigment volume concentration of the coating. Application of these coating systems to 0.0254 cm thick (10-mil) fuel cell grade asbestos sheet produces inexpensive, flexible, microporous separators that perform as well as the original inorganic-organic concept, the Astropower separator.

Collapse of Non-Rectangular Channels in a Soft Elastomer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tepayotl-Ramirez, Daniel; Park, Yong-Lae; Lu, Tong; Majidi, Carmel

2013-03-01

We examine the collapse of microchannels in a soft elastomer by treating the sidewalls as in- denters that penetrate the channel base. This approach leads to a closed-form algebraic mapping between applied pressure and cross-sectional deformation that are in strong agreement with ex- perimental measurements and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) simulation. Applications of this new approach to modeling soft microchannel collapse range from lab-on-a-chip microfluidics for pressure-controlled protein filtration to soft-matter pressures sensing. We demonstrate the latter by comparing theoretical predictions with experimental measurements of the pressure-controlled electrical resistance of liquid-phase Gallium alloy microchannels embedded in a soft silicone elas- tomer.

Set-membership fault detection under noisy environment with application to the detection of abnormal aircraft control surface positions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Houda Thabet, Rihab; Combastel, Christophe; Raïssi, Tarek; Zolghadri, Ali

2015-09-01

The paper develops a set membership detection methodology which is applied to the detection of abnormal positions of aircraft control surfaces. Robust and early detection of such abnormal positions is an important issue for early system reconfiguration and overall optimisation of aircraft design. In order to improve fault sensitivity while ensuring a high level of robustness, the method combines a data-driven characterisation of noise and a model-driven approach based on interval prediction. The efficiency of the proposed methodology is illustrated through simulation results obtained based on data recorded in several flight scenarios of a highly representative aircraft benchmark.

[Testing of the effect of classic conditioning stimuli in human experiment by means of the transfer of control paradigm].

PubMed

Wolter, J

1999-01-01

Pavlovian conditioning in animals is often evaluated by means of transfer of control experiments. With human subjects, however, only very few studies have been conducted and the outcomes were often not in accordance with theoretical explanations based on studies with animals. A theoretical framework is presented that tries to integrate the results of the human conditioning paradigm and the animal conditioning paradigm as well, with reference to the well-known Yerkes-Dodson law. The experimental study with human subjects (N = 24) confirmed the predictions out of this framework, when a procedure similar to animal research is applied.

Toward microscale flow control using non-uniform electro-osmotic flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paratore, Federico; Boyko, Evgeniy; Gat, Amir D.; Kaigala, Govind V.; Bercovici, Moran

2018-02-01

We present a novel method that allows establishing desired flow patterns in a Hele-Shaw cell, solely by controlling the surface chemistry, without the use of physical walls. Using weak electrolytes, we locally pattern the chamber's ceiling and/or floor, thus defining a spatial distribution of surface charge. This translates to a non-uniform electric double layer which when subjected to an external electric field applied along the chamber, gives rise to non-uniform electroosmotic flow (EOF). We present the theory that allows prediction and design of such flows fields, as well as experimental demonstrations opening the door to configurable microfluidic devices.

A comparison between two simulation models for spread of foot-and-mouth disease.

PubMed

Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette; Stockmarr, Anders; Enøe, Claes; Christiansen, Lasse E

2014-01-01

Two widely used simulation models of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were used in order to compare the models' predictions in term of disease spread, consequence, and the ranking of the applied control strategies, and to discuss the effect of the way disease spread is modeled on the predicted outcomes of each model. The DTU-DADS (version 0.100), and ISP (version 2.001.11) were used to simulate a hypothetical spread of FMD in Denmark. Actual herd type, movements, and location data in the period 1st October 2006 and 30th September 2007 was used. The models simulated the spread of FMD using 3 different control scenarios: 1) A basic scenario representing EU and Danish control strategies, 2) pre-emptive depopulation of susceptible herds within a 500 meters radius around the detected herds, and 3) suppressive vaccination of susceptible herds within a 1,000 meters radius around the detected herds. Depopulation and vaccination started 14 days following the detection of the first infected herd. Five thousand index herds were selected randomly, of which there were 1,000 cattle herds located in high density cattle areas and 1,000 in low density cattle areas, 1,000 swine herds located in high density swine areas and 1,000 in low density swine areas, and 1,000 sheep herds. Generally, DTU-DADS predicted larger, longer duration and costlier epidemics than ISP, except when epidemics started in cattle herds located in high density cattle areas. ISP supported suppressive vaccination rather than pre-emptive depopulation, while DTU-DADS was indifferent to the alternative control strategies. Nonetheless, the absolute differences between control strategies were small making the choice of control strategy during an outbreak to be most likely based on practical reasons.

A Comparison between Two Simulation Models for Spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease

PubMed Central

Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette; Stockmarr, Anders; Enøe, Claes; Christiansen, Lasse E.

2014-01-01

Two widely used simulation models of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were used in order to compare the models’ predictions in term of disease spread, consequence, and the ranking of the applied control strategies, and to discuss the effect of the way disease spread is modeled on the predicted outcomes of each model. The DTU-DADS (version 0.100), and ISP (version 2.001.11) were used to simulate a hypothetical spread of FMD in Denmark. Actual herd type, movements, and location data in the period 1st October 2006 and 30th September 2007 was used. The models simulated the spread of FMD using 3 different control scenarios: 1) A basic scenario representing EU and Danish control strategies, 2) pre-emptive depopulation of susceptible herds within a 500 meters radius around the detected herds, and 3) suppressive vaccination of susceptible herds within a 1,000 meters radius around the detected herds. Depopulation and vaccination started 14 days following the detection of the first infected herd. Five thousand index herds were selected randomly, of which there were 1,000 cattle herds located in high density cattle areas and 1,000 in low density cattle areas, 1,000 swine herds located in high density swine areas and 1,000 in low density swine areas, and 1,000 sheep herds. Generally, DTU-DADS predicted larger, longer duration and costlier epidemics than ISP, except when epidemics started in cattle herds located in high density cattle areas. ISP supported suppressive vaccination rather than pre-emptive depopulation, while DTU-DADS was indifferent to the alternative control strategies. Nonetheless, the absolute differences between control strategies were small making the choice of control strategy during an outbreak to be most likely based on practical reasons. PMID:24667525

Method to Predict Tempering of Steels Under Non-isothermal Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poirier, D. R.; Kohli, A.

2017-05-01

A common way of representing the tempering responses of steels is with a "tempering parameter" that includes the effect of temperature and time on hardness after hardening. Such functions, usually in graphical form, are available for many steels and have been applied for isothermal tempering. In this article, we demonstrate that the method can be extended to non-isothermal conditions. Controlled heating experiments were done on three grades in order to verify the method.

Assessing ADHD symptoms in children and adults: evaluating the role of objective measures.

PubMed

Emser, Theresa S; Johnston, Blair A; Steele, J Douglas; Kooij, Sandra; Thorell, Lisa; Christiansen, Hanna

2018-05-18

Diagnostic guidelines recommend using a variety of methods to assess and diagnose ADHD. Applying subjective measures always incorporates risks such as informant biases or large differences between ratings obtained from diverse sources. Furthermore, it has been demonstrated that ratings and tests seem to assess somewhat different constructs. The use of objective measures might thus yield valuable information for diagnosing ADHD. This study aims at evaluating the role of objective measures when trying to distinguish between individuals with ADHD and controls. Our sample consisted of children (n = 60) and adults (n = 76) diagnosed with ADHD and matched controls who completed self- and observer ratings as well as objective tasks. Diagnosis was primarily based on clinical interviews. A popular pattern recognition approach, support vector machines, was used to predict the diagnosis. We observed relatively high accuracy of 79% (adults) and 78% (children) applying solely objective measures. Predicting an ADHD diagnosis using both subjective and objective measures exceeded the accuracy of objective measures for both adults (89.5%) and children (86.7%), with the subjective variables proving to be the most relevant. We argue that objective measures are more robust against rater bias and errors inherent in subjective measures and may be more replicable. Considering the high accuracy of objective measures only, we found in our study, we think that they should be incorporated in diagnostic procedures for assessing ADHD.

Predicting organic food consumption: A meta-analytic structural equation model based on the theory of planned behavior.

PubMed

Scalco, Andrea; Noventa, Stefano; Sartori, Riccardo; Ceschi, Andrea

2017-05-01

During the last decade, the purchase of organic food within a sustainable consumption context has gained momentum. Consequently, the amount of research in the field has increased, leading in some cases to discrepancies regarding both methods and results. The present review examines those works that applied the theory of planned behavior (TPB; Ajzen, 1991) as a theoretical framework in order to understand and predict consumers' motivation to buy organic food. A meta-analysis has been conducted to assess the strength of the relationships between attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and intention, as well as between intention and behavior. Results confirm the major role played by individual attitude in shaping buying intention, followed by subjective norms and perceived behavioral control. Intention-behavior shows a large effect size, few studies however explicitly reported such an association. Furthermore, starting from a pooled correlation matrix, a meta-analytic structural equation model has been applied to jointly evaluate the strength of the relationships among the factors of the original model. Results suggest the robustness of the TPB model. In addition, mediation analysis indicates a potential direct effect from subjective norms to individual attitude in the present context. Finally, some issues regarding methodological aspects of the application of the TPB within the context of organic food are discussed for further research developments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring and Predicting the Internal Structure of Semiconductor Nanocrystals through Raman Spectroscopy.

PubMed

Mukherjee, Prabuddha; Lim, Sung Jun; Wrobel, Tomasz P; Bhargava, Rohit; Smith, Andrew M

2016-08-31

Nanocrystals composed of mixed chemical domains have diverse properties that are driving their integration in next-generation electronics, light sources, and biosensors. However, the precise spatial distribution of elements within these particles is difficult to measure and control, yet profoundly impacts their quality and performance. Here we synthesized a unique series of 42 different quantum dot nanocrystals, composed of two chemical domains (CdS:CdSe), arranged in 7 alloy and (core)shell structural classes. Chemometric analyses of far-field Raman spectra accurately classified their internal structures from their vibrational signatures. These classifications provide direct insight into the elemental arrangement of the alloy as well as an independent prediction of fluorescence quantum yield. This nondestructive, rapid approach can be broadly applied to greatly enhance our capacity to measure, predict and monitor multicomponent nanomaterials for precise tuning of their structures and properties.

An Update on Design Tools for Optimization of CMC 3D Fiber Architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lang, J.; DiCarlo, J.

2012-01-01

Objective: Describe and up-date progress for NASA's efforts to develop 3D architectural design tools for CMC in general and for SIC/SiC composites in particular. Describe past and current sequential work efforts aimed at: Understanding key fiber and tow physical characteristics in conventional 2D and 3D woven architectures as revealed by microstructures in the literature. Developing an Excel program for down-selecting and predicting key geometric properties and resulting key fiber-controlled properties for various conventional 3D architectures. Developing a software tool for accurately visualizing all the key geometric details of conventional 3D architectures. Validating tools by visualizing and predicting the Internal geometry and key mechanical properties of a NASA SIC/SIC panel with a 3D orthogonal architecture. Applying the predictive and visualization tools toward advanced 3D orthogonal SiC/SIC composites, and combining them into a user-friendly software program.

Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure.

PubMed

Dyble, Julianne; Bienfang, Paul; Dusek, Eva; Hitchcock, Gary; Holland, Fred; Laws, Ed; Lerczak, James; McGillicuddy, Dennis J; Minnett, Peter; Moore, Stephanie K; O'Kelly, Charles; Solo-Gabriele, Helena; Wang, John D

2008-11-07

Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges.

A prescribed wake rotor inflow and flow field prediction analysis, user's manual and technical approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Egolf, T. A.; Landgrebe, A. J.

1982-01-01

A user's manual is provided which includes the technical approach for the Prescribed Wake Rotor Inflow and Flow Field Prediction Analysis. The analysis is used to provide the rotor wake induced velocities at the rotor blades for use in blade airloads and response analyses and to provide induced velocities at arbitrary field points such as at a tail surface. This analysis calculates the distribution of rotor wake induced velocities based on a prescribed wake model. Section operating conditions are prescribed from blade motion and controls determined by a separate blade response analysis. The analysis represents each blade by a segmented lifting line, and the rotor wake by discrete segmented trailing vortex filaments. Blade loading and circulation distributions are calculated based on blade element strip theory including the local induced velocity predicted by the numerical integration of the Biot-Savart Law applied to the vortex wake model.

Optimality Principles for Model-Based Prediction of Human Gait

PubMed Central

Ackermann, Marko; van den Bogert, Antonie J.

2010-01-01

Although humans have a large repertoire of potential movements, gait patterns tend to be stereotypical and appear to be selected according to optimality principles such as minimal energy. When applied to dynamic musculoskeletal models such optimality principles might be used to predict how a patient’s gait adapts to mechanical interventions such as prosthetic devices or surgery. In this paper we study the effects of different performance criteria on predicted gait patterns using a 2D musculoskeletal model. The associated optimal control problem for a family of different cost functions was solved utilizing the direct collocation method. It was found that fatigue-like cost functions produced realistic gait, with stance phase knee flexion, as opposed to energy-related cost functions which avoided knee flexion during the stance phase. We conclude that fatigue minimization may be one of the primary optimality principles governing human gait. PMID:20074736

Performance factors in associative learning: assessment of the sometimes competing retrieval model.

PubMed

Witnauer, James E; Wojick, Brittany M; Polack, Cody W; Miller, Ralph R

2012-09-01

Previous simulations revealed that the sometimes competing retrieval model (SOCR; Stout & Miller, Psychological Review, 114, 759-783, 2007), which assumes local error reduction, can explain many cue interaction phenomena that elude traditional associative theories based on total error reduction. Here, we applied SOCR to a new set of Pavlovian phenomena. Simulations used a single set of fixed parameters to simulate each basic effect (e.g., blocking) and, for specific experiments using different procedures, used fitted parameters discovered through hill climbing. In simulation 1, SOCR was successfully applied to basic acquisition, including the overtraining effect, which is context dependent. In simulation 2, we applied SOCR to basic extinction and renewal. SOCR anticipated these effects with both fixed parameters and best-fitting parameters, although the renewal effects were weaker than those observed in some experiments. In simulation 3a, feature-negative training was simulated, including the often observed transition from second-order conditioning to conditioned inhibition. In simulation 3b, SOCR predicted the observation that conditioned inhibition after feature-negative and differential conditioning depends on intertrial interval. In simulation 3c, SOCR successfully predicted failure of conditioned inhibition to extinguish with presentations of the inhibitor alone under most circumstances. In simulation 4, cue competition, including blocking (4a), recovery from relative validity (4b), and unblocking (4c), was simulated. In simulation 5, SOCR correctly predicted that inhibitors gain more behavioral control than do excitors when they are trained in compound. Simulation 6 demonstrated that SOCR explains the slower acquisition observed following CS-weak shock pairings.

Fatigue response of perforated titanium for application in laminar flow control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, W. Steven; Miller, Jennifer L.; Newman, Jr., James

1996-01-01

The room temperature tensile and fatigue response of non-perforated and perforated titanium for laminar flow control application was investigated both experimentally and analytically. Results showed that multiple perforations did not affect the tensile response, but did reduce the fatigue life. A two dimensional finite element stress analysis was used to determine that the stress fields from adjacent perforations did not influence one another. The stress fields around the holes did not overlap one another, allowing the materials to be modeled as a plate with a center hole. Fatigue life was predicted using an equivalent MW flow size approach to relate the experimental results to microstructural features of the titanium. Predictions using flaw sizes ranging from 1 to 15 microns correlated within a factor of 2 with the experimental results by using a flow stress of 260 MPa. By using two different flow stresses in the crack closure model and correcting for plasticity, the experimental results were bounded by the predictions for high applied stresses. Further analysis of the complex geometry of the perforations and the local material chemistry is needed to further understand the fatigue behavior of the perforated titanium.

Summary of longitudinal stability and control parameters as determined from Space Shuttle Challenger flight test data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suit, William T.

1989-01-01

Estimates of longitudinal stability and control parameters for the space shuttle were determined by applying a maximum likelihood parameter estimation technique to Challenger flight test data. The parameters for pitching moment coefficient, C(m sub alpha), (at different angles of attack), pitching moment coefficient, C(m sub delta e), (at different elevator deflections) and the normal force coefficient, C(z sub alpha), (at different angles of attack) describe 90 percent of the response to longitudinal inputs during Space Shuttle Challenger flights with C(m sub delta e) being the dominant parameter. The values of C(z sub alpha) were found to be input dependent for these tests. However, when C(z sub alpha) was set at preflight predictions, the values determined for C(m sub delta e) changed less than 10 percent from the values obtained when C(z sub alpha) was estimated as well. The preflight predictions for C(z sub alpha) and C(m sub alpha) are acceptable values, while the values of C(z sub delta e) should be about 30 percent less negative than the preflight predictions near Mach 1, and 10 percent less negative, otherwise.

Theory of Mind and Selective Attention, Response Inhibition, Cognitive Flexibility in Patients with Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Eşsizoğlu, Altan; Köşger, Ferdi; Akarsu, Ferdane Özlem; Özaydin, Özer; Güleç, Gülcan

2017-06-01

The aims of the current study are to investigate the relationship between selective attention, response inhibition, and cognitive flexibility that are among executive functions and sociocognitive and socioperceptual theory of mind (ToM) functions and also to investigate whether selective attention, response inhibition, and cognitive flexibility are predictive factors for ToM functions in patients with schizophrenia. Forty-seven patients diagnosed with schizophrenia and a control group consisting of 42 individuals were administered demographic information form, Wisconsin card sorting test (WCST), Stroop test, Eye test, Hinting test. Positive and negative syndrome scale was applied to the schizophrenia group. In comparison to the control group, the schizophrenia group performed significantly worse on Eyes test and Hinting test. Eyes Test score and age, WCST perseverative error scores were significantly negatively correlated; education and WCST categories achieved scores were significantly positively correlated in patients with schizophrenia. Age and cognitive flexibility were found to predict the Eyes test score in patients with schizophrenia. ToM functions that are important in maintaining socioperceptual functioning are closely related with cognitive flexibility, and impairment in cognitive flexibility may predict the ToM functions in patients with schizophrenia.

Predicting intentions to eat a healthful diet by college baseball players: applying the theory of planned behavior.

PubMed

Pawlak, Roman; Malinauskas, Brenda; Rivera, David

2009-01-01

To assess factors important to college baseball players regarding intention to eat a healthful diet within the Theory of Planned Behavior. A survey based on the Theory of Planned Behavior was administered during the 2006 summer league season from 5 of the Northern Division teams of the Coastal Plain League. Male undergraduate college baseball players (mean [standard deviation (SD)] age 20.25 [1.12]). Prediction of behavioral intention to eat a healthful diet. Regression analysis was used to assess how well the variables of the Theory of Planned Behavior predicted behavioral intention to eat a healthful diet. Attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavior control variables accounted for 72% of the variance in behavioral intention to eat a healthful diet. Attitude had the greatest influence on intention (beta = .383, P < .001), followed by subjective norms (beta = .291, P < .001), and perceived behavioral control (beta = .269, P < .001). Athletes' daily schedule and their perception of the impact of a healthful diet on their focus and concentration had the biggest impact on intention to eat healthful food. University athletic administration must emphasize providing access to healthful food, especially during the season, both at home and while traveling to games.

Predictive modelling of flow in a two-dimensional intermediate-scale, heterogeneous porous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barth, Gilbert R.; Hill, M.C.; Illangasekare, T.H.; Rajaram, H.

2000-01-01

To better understand the role of sedimentary structures in flow through porous media, and to determine how small-scale laboratory-measured values of hydraulic conductivity relate to in situ values this work deterministically examines flow through simple, artificial structures constructed for a series of intermediate-scale (10 m long), two-dimensional, heterogeneous, laboratory experiments. Nonlinear regression was used to determine optimal values of in situ hydraulic conductivity, which were compared to laboratory-measured values. Despite explicit numerical representation of the heterogeneity, the optimized values were generally greater than the laboratory-measured values. Discrepancies between measured and optimal values varied depending on the sand sieve size, but their contribution to error in the predicted flow was fairly consistent for all sands. Results indicate that, even under these controlled circumstances, laboratory-measured values of hydraulic conductivity need to be applied to models cautiously.To better understand the role of sedimentary structures in flow through porous media, and to determine how small-scale laboratory-measured values of hydraulic conductivity relate to in situ values this work deterministically examines flow through simple, artificial structures constructed for a series of intermediate-scale (10 m long), two-dimensional, heterogeneous, laboratory experiments. Nonlinear regression was used to determine optimal values of in situ hydraulic conductivity, which were compared to laboratory-measured values. Despite explicit numerical representation of the heterogeneity, the optimized values were generally greater than the laboratory-measured values. Discrepancies between measured and optimal values varied depending on the sand sieve size, but their contribution to error in the predicted flow was fairly consistent for all sands. Results indicate that, even under these controlled circumstances, laboratory-measured values of hydraulic conductivity need to be applied to models cautiously.

Predictability and Robustness in the Manipulation of Dynamically Complex Objects

PubMed Central

Hasson, Christopher J.

2017-01-01

Manipulation of complex objects and tools is a hallmark of many activities of daily living, but how the human neuromotor control system interacts with such objects is not well understood. Even the seemingly simple task of transporting a cup of coffee without spilling creates complex interaction forces that humans need to compensate for. Predicting the behavior of an underactuated object with nonlinear fluid dynamics based on an internal model appears daunting. Hence, this research tests the hypothesis that humans learn strategies that make interactions predictable and robust to inaccuracies in neural representations of object dynamics. The task of moving a cup of coffee is modeled with a cart-and-pendulum system that is rendered in a virtual environment, where subjects interact with a virtual cup with a rolling ball inside using a robotic manipulandum. To gain insight into human control strategies, we operationalize predictability and robustness to permit quantitative theory-based assessment. Predictability is quantified by the mutual information between the applied force and the object dynamics; robustness is quantified by the energy margin away from failure. Three studies are reviewed that show how with practice subjects develop movement strategies that are predictable and robust. Alternative criteria, common for free movement, such as maximization of smoothness and minimization of force, do not account for the observed data. As manual dexterity is compromised in many individuals with neurological disorders, the experimental paradigm and its analyses are a promising platform to gain insights into neurological diseases, such as dystonia and multiple sclerosis, as well as healthy aging. PMID:28035560

An online spatio-temporal prediction model for dengue fever epidemic in Kaohsiung,Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Ming-Hung; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Angulo, Jose; Christakos, George

2013-04-01

Dengue Fever (DF) is one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases in tropical and subtropical areas. DF epidemics occur in Taiwan annually especially during summer and fall seasons. Kaohsiung city has been one of the major DF hotspots in decades. The emergence and re-emergence of the DF epidemic is complex and can be influenced by various factors including space-time dynamics of human and vector populations and virus serotypes as well as the associated uncertainties. This study integrates a stochastic space-time "Susceptible-Infected-Recovered" model under Bayesian maximum entropy framework (BME-SIR) to perform real-time prediction of disease diffusion across space-time. The proposed model is applied for spatiotemporal prediction of the DF epidemic at Kaohsiung city during 2002 when the historical series of high DF cases was recorded. The online prediction by BME-SIR model updates the parameters of SIR model and infected cases across districts over time. Results show that the proposed model is rigorous to initial guess of unknown model parameters, i.e. transmission and recovery rates, which can depend upon the virus serotypes and various human interventions. This study shows that spatial diffusion can be well characterized by BME-SIR model, especially at the district surrounding the disease outbreak locations. The prediction performance at DF hotspots, i.e. Cianjhen and Sanmin, can be degraded due to the implementation of various disease control strategies during the epidemics. The proposed online disease prediction BME-SIR model can provide the governmental agency with a valuable reference to timely identify, control, and efficiently prevent DF spread across space-time.

CpG island methylation profile in non-invasive oral rinse samples is predictive of oral and pharyngeal carcinoma.

PubMed

Langevin, Scott M; Eliot, Melissa; Butler, Rondi A; Cheong, Agnes; Zhang, Xiang; McClean, Michael D; Koestler, Devin C; Kelsey, Karl T

2015-01-01

There are currently no screening tests in routine use for oral and pharyngeal cancer beyond visual inspection and palpation, which are provided on an opportunistic basis, indicating a need for development of novel methods for early detection, particularly in high-risk populations. We sought to address this need through comprehensive interrogation of CpG island methylation in oral rinse samples. We used the Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadArray to interrogate DNA methylation in oral rinse samples collected from 154 patients with incident oral or pharyngeal carcinoma prior to treatment and 72 cancer-free control subjects. Subjects were randomly allocated to either a training or a testing set. For each subject, average methylation was calculated for each CpG island represented on the array. We applied a semi-supervised recursively partitioned mixture model to the CpG island methylation data to identify a classifier for prediction of case status in the training set. We then applied the resultant classifier to the testing set for validation and to assess the predictive accuracy. We identified a methylation classifier comprised of 22 CpG islands, which predicted oral and pharyngeal carcinoma with a high degree of accuracy (AUC = 0.92, 95 % CI 0.86, 0.98). This novel methylation panel is a strong predictor of oral and pharyngeal carcinoma case status in oral rinse samples and may have utility in early detection and post-treatment follow-up.

Bayesian prediction of placebo analgesia in an instrumental learning model

PubMed Central

Jung, Won-Mo; Lee, Ye-Seul; Wallraven, Christian; Chae, Younbyoung

2017-01-01

Placebo analgesia can be primarily explained by the Pavlovian conditioning paradigm in which a passively applied cue becomes associated with less pain. In contrast, instrumental conditioning employs an active paradigm that might be more similar to clinical settings. In the present study, an instrumental conditioning paradigm involving a modified trust game in a simulated clinical situation was used to induce placebo analgesia. Additionally, Bayesian modeling was applied to predict the placebo responses of individuals based on their choices. Twenty-four participants engaged in a medical trust game in which decisions to receive treatment from either a doctor (more effective with high cost) or a pharmacy (less effective with low cost) were made after receiving a reference pain stimulus. In the conditioning session, the participants received lower levels of pain following both choices, while high pain stimuli were administered in the test session even after making the decision. The choice-dependent pain in the conditioning session was modulated in terms of both intensity and uncertainty. Participants reported significantly less pain when they chose the doctor or the pharmacy for treatment compared to the control trials. The predicted pain ratings based on Bayesian modeling showed significant correlations with the actual reports from participants for both of the choice categories. The instrumental conditioning paradigm allowed for the active choice of optional cues and was able to induce the placebo analgesia effect. Additionally, Bayesian modeling successfully predicted pain ratings in a simulated clinical situation that fits well with placebo analgesia induced by instrumental conditioning. PMID:28225816

Models for nearly every occasion: Part III - One box decreasing emission models.

PubMed

Hewett, Paul; Ganser, Gary H

2017-11-01

New one box "well-mixed room" decreasing emission (DE) models are introduced that allow for local exhaust or local exhaust with filtered return, as well the recirculation of a filtered (or cleaned) portion of the general room ventilation. For each control device scenario, a steady state and transient model is presented. The transient equations predict the concentration at any time t after the application of a known mass of a volatile substance to a surface, and can be used to predict the task exposure profile, the average task exposure, as well as peak and short-term exposures. The steady state equations can be used to predict the "average concentration per application" that is reached whenever the substance is repeatedly applied. Whenever the beginning and end concentrations are expected to be zero (or near zero) the steady state equations can also be used to predict the average concentration for a single task with multiple applications during the task, or even a series of such tasks. The transient equations should be used whenever these criteria cannot be met. A structured calibration procedure is proposed that utilizes a mass balance approach. Depending upon the DE model selected, one or more calibration measurements are collected. Using rearranged versions of the steady state equations, estimates of the model variables-e.g., the mass of the substance applied during each application, local exhaust capture efficiency, and the various cleaning or filtration efficiencies-can be calculated. A new procedure is proposed for estimating the emission rate constant.

Adaptive Quantum Control of Charge Motion in Semiconductor Heterostructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reitze, David

1998-05-01

Quantum control of electronic wavepacket motion and interactions using ultrafast lasers has moved from the conceptual stage to reality, in large part driven by advances in quantum control theory (R. J. Gordon and S. A. Rice, Ann. Rev. Phys. Chem. (1997), in press.) (M. Shapiro and P. Brumer, J. Chem. Soc. Faraday Trans. V93, 1263 (1997).) (D. Neuhauser and H. Rabitz, Acc. Chem. Res. V26, 496 (1993).) and experimental pulse shaping methods (A. M. Weiner, D. E. Leaird, G. P. Wiederrecht, and K. A. Nelson, Science V247, 412 (1990).) (A. Efimov, C. Schaffer, and D. H. Reitze, J. Opt. Soc. Am VB12, 1968 (1995).). Here, we apply these methods to controlling charge motion in semiconductor heterostructures. Control of coherent charge dynamics in heterostructures enjoys an advantage in that spatial potential profiles can be adjusted almost arbitrarily. Thus, control of charge motion can be exerted by tailoring both the temporal and spatial interactions of the charges with the controlling optical and static fields. In this talk, we demonstrate an experimental feedback loop which adaptively shapes fs pulses in a quantum contol pump-probe experiment, apply it to the control of coherent wavepacket motion in DC-biased asymmetric double quantum well(ADQW) structures, and compare to theoretical predictions of quantum control in ADQWs (N. M. Beach, D. H. Reitze, and J. L. Krause, submitted to Opt. Exp.) (J. L. Krause, D. H. Reitze, G. D. Sanders, A. Kuznetsov, and C. J. Stanton, to appear in Phys. Rev. B).

Hybrid Clustering-GWO-NARX neural network technique in predicting stock price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Debashish; Safa Sadiq, Ali; Mirjalili, Seyedali; Noraziah, A.

2017-09-01

Prediction of stock price is one of the most challenging tasks due to nonlinear nature of the stock data. Though numerous attempts have been made to predict the stock price by applying various techniques, yet the predicted price is not always accurate and even the error rate is high to some extent. Consequently, this paper endeavours to determine an efficient stock prediction strategy by implementing a combinatorial method of Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), Clustering and Non Linear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Technique. The study uses stock data from prominent stock market i.e. New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ and emerging stock market i.e. Malaysian Stock Market (Bursa Malaysia), Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). It applies K-means clustering algorithm to determine the most promising cluster, then MGWO is used to determine the classification rate and finally the stock price is predicted by applying NARX neural network algorithm. The prediction performance gained through experimentation is compared and assessed to guide the investors in making investment decision. The result through this technique is indeed promising as it has shown almost precise prediction and improved error rate. We have applied the hybrid Clustering-GWO-NARX neural network technique in predicting stock price. We intend to work with the effect of various factors in stock price movement and selection of parameters. We will further investigate the influence of company news either positive or negative in stock price movement. We would be also interested to predict the Stock indices.

Use of Linear Prediction Uncertainty Analysis to Guide Conditioning of Models Simulating Surface-Water/Groundwater Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, J. D.; White, J.; Doherty, J.

2011-12-01

Linear prediction uncertainty analysis in a Bayesian framework was applied to guide the conditioning of an integrated surface water/groundwater model that will be used to predict the effects of groundwater withdrawals on surface-water and groundwater flows. Linear prediction uncertainty analysis is an effective approach for identifying (1) raw and processed data most effective for model conditioning prior to inversion, (2) specific observations and periods of time critically sensitive to specific predictions, and (3) additional observation data that would reduce model uncertainty relative to specific predictions. We present results for a two-dimensional groundwater model of a 2,186 km2 area of the Biscayne aquifer in south Florida implicitly coupled to a surface-water routing model of the actively managed canal system. The model domain includes 5 municipal well fields withdrawing more than 1 Mm3/day and 17 operable surface-water control structures that control freshwater releases from the Everglades and freshwater discharges to Biscayne Bay. More than 10 years of daily observation data from 35 groundwater wells and 24 surface water gages are available to condition model parameters. A dense parameterization was used to fully characterize the contribution of the inversion null space to predictive uncertainty and included bias-correction parameters. This approach allows better resolution of the boundary between the inversion null space and solution space. Bias-correction parameters (e.g., rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and structure flow multipliers) absorb information that is present in structural noise that may otherwise contaminate the estimation of more physically-based model parameters. This allows greater precision in predictions that are entirely solution-space dependent, and reduces the propensity for bias in predictions that are not. Results show that application of this analysis is an effective means of identifying those surface-water and groundwater data, both raw and processed, that minimize predictive uncertainty, while simultaneously identifying the maximum solution-space dimensionality of the inverse problem supported by the data.

Comparison of the Seventh and Eighth Editions of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control Tumor-Node-Metastasis Staging System for Differentiated Thyroid Cancer.

PubMed

Kim, Mijin; Kim, Won Gu; Oh, Hye-Seon; Park, Suyeon; Kwon, Hyemi; Song, Dong Eun; Kim, Tae Yong; Shong, Young Kee; Kim, Won Bae; Sung, Tae-Yon; Jeon, Min Ji

2017-09-01

To evaluate the efficacy and prognostic validity for disease-specific survival (DSS) of the eighth edition American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (TNM-8) compared to the seventh edition (TNM-7) in patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC). The seventh and eighth editions of the TNM staging system were applied to 1613 DTC patients who underwent thyroid surgery between 1996 and 2003. The proportion of variation explained and Harrell's c-index were evaluated to compare the predictive capability of DSS. The mean age of the patients was 44.7 years, and the median follow-up period was 11.2 years. When TNM-8 was applied, 63% of T3 and 3% of N1b DTCs were downgraded to T1/T2 and N1a, respectively. About 38% of patients were downstaged according to TNM-8. The 10-year DSS rates in TNM-7 stages I, II, III, and IV were 99.7%, 98.2%, 98.8%, and 83.2%, respectively. Those in TNM-8 stages I, II, III, and IV were 99.6%, 95.4%, 72.3%, and 48.6%, respectively. The proportion of variation explained values of TNM-7 and TNM-8 were 6.0% and 7.0%, respectively. The Harrell's c-index of TNM-7 was 0.86 and that of TNM-8 was 0.88. A significant number of patients were reclassified to lower stages with the application of TNM-8 compared to TNM-7. Applying TNM-8 could improve the accuracy of the staging system for predicting DSS in patients with DTC.

Initial Aerodynamic and Acoustic Study of an Active Twist Rotor Using a Loosely Coupled CFD/CSD Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyd, David D. Jr.

2009-01-01

Preliminary aerodynamic and performance predictions for an active twist rotor for a HART-II type of configuration are performed using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code, OVERFLOW2, and a computational structural dynamics (CSD) code, CAMRAD -II. These codes are loosely coupled to compute a consistent set of aerodynamics and elastic blade motions. Resultant aerodynamic and blade motion data are then used in the Ffowcs-Williams Hawkins solver, PSU-WOPWOP, to compute noise on an observer plane under the rotor. Active twist of the rotor blade is achieved in CAMRAD-II by application of a periodic torsional moment couple (of equal and opposite sign) at the blade root and tip at a specified frequency and amplitude. To provide confidence in these particular active twist predictions for which no measured data is available, the rotor system geometry and computational set up examined here are identical to that used in a previous successful Higher Harmonic Control (HHC) computational study. For a single frequency equal to three times the blade passage frequency (3P), active twist is applied across a range of control phase angles at two different amplitudes. Predicted results indicate that there are control phase angles where the maximum mid-frequency noise level and the 4P non -rotating hub vibrations can be reduced, potentially, both at the same time. However, these calculated reductions are predicted to come with a performance penalty in the form of a reduction in rotor lift-to-drag ratio due to an increase in rotor profile power.

Studies on the response of resistive-wall modes to applied magnetic perturbations in the EXTRAP T2R reversed field pinch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregoratto, D.; Drake, J. R.; Yadikin, D.; Liu, Y. Q.; Paccagnella, R.; Brunsell, P. R.; Bolzonella, T.; Marchiori, G.; Cecconello, M.

2005-09-01

Arrays of magnetic coils and sensors in the EXTRAP T2R [P. R. Brunsell et al., Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 43 1457 (2001)] reversed-field pinch have been used to investigate the plasma response to an applied resonant magnetic perturbation in the range of the resistive-wall modes (RWMs). Measured RWM growth rates agree with predictions of a cylindrical ideal-plasma model. The linear growth of low-n marginally stable RWMs is related to the so-called resonant-field amplification due to a dominant ∣n∣=2 machine error field of about 2 G. The dynamics of the m =1 RWMs interacting with the applied field produced by the coils can be accurately described by a two-pole system. Estimated poles and residues are given with sufficient accuracy by the cylindrical model with a thin continuous wall.

W transport and accumulation control in the termination phase of JET H-mode discharges and implications for ITER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köchl, F.; Loarte, A.; de la Luna, E.; Parail, V.; Corrigan, G.; Harting, D.; Nunes, I.; Reux, C.; Rimini, F. G.; Polevoi, A.; Romanelli, M.; Contributors, JET

2018-07-01

Tokamak operation with W PFCs is associated with specific challenges for impurity control, which may be particularly demanding in the transition from stationary H-mode to L-mode. To address W control issues in this phase, dedicated experiments have been performed at JET including the variation of the decrease of the power and current, gas fuelling and central ion cyclotron heating (ICRH), and applying active ELM control by vertical kicks. The experimental results obtained demonstrate the key role of maintaining ELM control to control the W concentration in the exit phase of H-modes with slow (ITER-like) ramp-down of the neutral beam injection power in JET. For these experiments, integrated fully predictive core+edge+SOL transport modelling studies applying discrete models for the description of transients such as sawteeth and ELMs have been performed for the first time with the JINTRAC suite of codes for the entire transition from stationary H-mode until the time when the plasma would return to L-mode focusing on the W transport behaviour. Simulations have shown that the existing models can appropriately reproduce the plasma profile evolution in the core, edge and SOL as well as W accumulation trends in the termination phase of JET H-mode discharges as function of the applied ICRH and ELM control schemes, substantiating the ambivalent effect of ELMs on W sputtering on one side and on edge transport affecting core W accumulation on the other side. The sensitivity with respect to NB particle and momentum sources has also been analysed and their impact on neoclassical W transport has been found to be crucial to reproduce the observed W accumulation characteristics in JET discharges. In this paper the results of the JET experiments, the comparison with JINTRAC modelling and the adequacy of the models to reproduce the experimental results are described and conclusions are drawn regarding the applicability of these models for the extrapolation of the applied W accumulation control techniques to ITER.

Link prediction boosted psychiatry disorder classification for functional connectivity network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Weiwei; Mei, Xue; Wang, Hao; Zhou, Yu; Huang, Jiashuang

2017-02-01

Functional connectivity network (FCN) is an effective tool in psychiatry disorders classification, and represents cross-correlation of the regional blood oxygenation level dependent signal. However, FCN is often incomplete for suffering from missing and spurious edges. To accurate classify psychiatry disorders and health control with the incomplete FCN, we first `repair' the FCN with link prediction, and then exact the clustering coefficients as features to build a weak classifier for every FCN. Finally, we apply a boosting algorithm to combine these weak classifiers for improving classification accuracy. Our method tested by three datasets of psychiatry disorder, including Alzheimer's Disease, Schizophrenia and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder. The experimental results show our method not only significantly improves the classification accuracy, but also efficiently reconstructs the incomplete FCN.

The Cerebellum: Adaptive Prediction for Movement and Cognition

PubMed Central

Sokolov, Arseny A.; Miall, R. Chris; Ivry, Richard B.

2017-01-01

Over the past 30 years, cumulative evidence has indicated that cerebellar function extends beyond sensorimotor control. This view has emerged from studies of neuroanatomy, neuroimaging, neuropsychology and brain stimulation, with the results implicating the cerebellum in domains as diverse as attention, language, executive function and social cognition. Although the literature provides sophisticated models of how the cerebellum helps refine movements, it remains unclear how the core mechanisms of these models can be applied when considering a broader conceptualization of cerebellar function. In light of recent multidisciplinary findings, we consider two key concepts that have been suggested as general computational principles of cerebellar function, prediction and error-based learning, examining how these might be relevant in the operation of cognitive cerebro-cerebellar loops. PMID:28385461

A water balance model to estimate flow through the Old and Middle River corridor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, Stephen W.; Gross, Edward S.; Hutton, Paul H.

2016-01-01

We applied a water balance model to predict tidally averaged (subtidal) flows through the Old River and Middle River corridor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. We reviewed the dynamics that govern subtidal flows and water levels and adopted a simplified representation. In this water balance approach, we estimated ungaged flows as linear functions of known (or specified) flows. We assumed that subtidal storage within the control volume varies because of fortnightly variation in subtidal water level, Delta inflow, and barometric pressure. The water balance model effectively predicts subtidal flows and approaches the accuracy of a 1–D Delta hydrodynamic model. We explore the potential to improve the approach by representing more complex dynamics and identify possible future improvements.

Validation of the thermal transport model used for ITER startup scenario predictions with DIII-D experimental data

DOE PAGES

Casper, T. A.; Meyer, W. H.; Jackson, G. L.; ...

2010-12-08

We are exploring characteristics of ITER startup scenarios in similarity experiments conducted on the DIII-D Tokamak. In these experiments, we have validated scenarios for the ITER current ramp up to full current and developed methods to control the plasma parameters to achieve stability. Predictive simulations of ITER startup using 2D free-boundary equilibrium and 1D transport codes rely on accurate estimates of the electron and ion temperature profiles that determine the electrical conductivity and pressure profiles during the current rise. Here we present results of validation studies that apply the transport model used by the ITER team to DIII-D discharge evolutionmore » and comparisons with data from our similarity experiments.« less

Chemical combination effects predict connectivity in biological systems

PubMed Central

Lehár, Joseph; Zimmermann, Grant R; Krueger, Andrew S; Molnar, Raymond A; Ledell, Jebediah T; Heilbut, Adrian M; Short, Glenn F; Giusti, Leanne C; Nolan, Garry P; Magid, Omar A; Lee, Margaret S; Borisy, Alexis A; Stockwell, Brent R; Keith, Curtis T

2007-01-01

Efforts to construct therapeutically useful models of biological systems require large and diverse sets of data on functional connections between their components. Here we show that cellular responses to combinations of chemicals reveal how their biological targets are connected. Simulations of pathways with pairs of inhibitors at varying doses predict distinct response surface shapes that are reproduced in a yeast experiment, with further support from a larger screen using human tumour cells. The response morphology yields detailed connectivity constraints between nearby targets, and synergy profiles across many combinations show relatedness between targets in the whole network. Constraints from chemical combinations complement genetic studies, because they probe different cellular components and can be applied to disease models that are not amenable to mutagenesis. Chemical probes also offer increased flexibility, as they can be continuously dosed, temporally controlled, and readily combined. After extending this initial study to cover a wider range of combination effects and pathway topologies, chemical combinations may be used to refine network models or to identify novel targets. This response surface methodology may even apply to non-biological systems where responses to targeted perturbations can be measured. PMID:17332758

The multiaxial fatigue response of cylindrical geometry under proportional loading subject to fluctuating tractions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, Rudy D.

A multiaxial fatigue model is proposed, as it would apply to cylindrical geometry in the form of industrial sized pressure vessels. The main focus of the multiaxial fatigue model will be based on using energy methods with the loading states confined to fluctuating tractions under proportional loading. The proposed fatigue model is an effort to support and enhance existing fatigue life predicting methods for pressure vessel design, beyond the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel codes, ASME Section VIII Division 2 and 3, which is currently used in industrial engineering practice for pressure vessel design. Both uniaxial and biaxial low alloy pearlittic-ferritic steel cylindrical cyclic test data are utilized to substantiate the proposed fatigue model. Approximate material hardening and softening aspects from applied load cycling states and the Bauschinger effect are accounted for by adjusting strain control generated hysteresis loops and the cyclic stress strain curve. The proposed fatigue energy model and the current ASME fatigue model are then compared with regards to the accuracy of predicting fatigue life cycle consistencies.

Micromechanisms of thermomechanical fatigue: A comparison with isothermal fatigue

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bill, R. C.

1986-01-01

Thermomechanical Fatigue (TMF) experiments were conducted on Mar-M 200, B-1900, and PWA-1480 (single crystals) over temperature ranges representative of gas turbine airfoil environments. The results were examined from both a phenomenological basis and a micromechanical basis. Depending on constituents present in the superalloy system, certain micromechanisms dominated the crack initiation process and significantly influenced the TMF lives as well as sensitivity of the material to the type TMF cycle imposed. For instance, high temperature cracking around grain boundary carbides in Mar-M 200 resulted in short in-phase TMF lives compared to either out-of-phase or isothermal lives. In single crystal PWA-1480, the type of coating applied was seen to be the controlling factor in determining sensitivity to the type of TMF cycle imposed. Micromechanisms of deformation were observed over the temperature range of interest to the TMF cycles, and provided some insight as to the differences between TMF damage mechanisms and isothermal damage mechanisms. Finally, the applicability of various life prediction models to TMF results was reviewed. Current life prediction models based on isothermal data must be modified before being generally applied to TMF.

GIS Based Distributed Runoff Predictions in Variable Source Area Watersheds Employing the SCS-Curve Number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steenhuis, T. S.; Mendoza, G.; Lyon, S. W.; Gerard Marchant, P.; Walter, M. T.; Schneiderman, E.

2003-04-01

Because the traditional Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) approach continues to be ubiquitously used in GIS-BASED water quality models, new application methods are needed that are consistent with variable source area (VSA) hydrological processes in the landscape. We developed within an integrated GIS modeling environment a distributed approach for applying the traditional SCS-CN equation to watersheds where VSA hydrology is a dominant process. Spatial representation of hydrologic processes is important for watershed planning because restricting potentially polluting activities from runoff source areas is fundamental to controlling non-point source pollution. The methodology presented here uses the traditional SCS-CN method to predict runoff volume and spatial extent of saturated areas and uses a topographic index to distribute runoff source areas through watersheds. The resulting distributed CN-VSA method was incorporated in an existing GWLF water quality model and applied to sub-watersheds of the Delaware basin in the Catskill Mountains region of New York State. We found that the distributed CN-VSA approach provided a physically-based method that gives realistic results for watersheds with VSA hydrology.

Self-consistent molecular dynamics formulation for electric-field-mediated electrolyte transport through nanochannels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghunathan, A. V.; Aluru, N. R.

2007-07-01

A self-consistent molecular dynamics (SCMD) formulation is presented for electric-field-mediated transport of water and ions through a nanochannel connected to reservoirs or baths. The SCMD formulation is compared with a uniform field MD approach, where the applied electric field is assumed to be uniform, for 2nm and 3.5nm wide nanochannels immersed in a 0.5M KCl solution. Reservoir ionic concentrations are maintained using the dual-control-volume grand canonical molecular dynamics technique. Simulation results with varying channel height indicate that the SCMD approach calculates the electrostatic potential in the simulation domain more accurately compared to the uniform field approach, with the deviation in results increasing with the channel height. The translocation times and ionic fluxes predicted by uniform field MD can be substantially different from those predicted by the SCMD approach. Our results also indicate that during a 2ns simulation time K+ ions can permeate through a 1nm channel when the applied electric field is computed self-consistently, while the permeation is not observed when the electric field is assumed to be uniform.

EEG-based emergency braking intention prediction for brain-controlled driving considering one electrode falling-off.

PubMed

Huikang Wang; Luzheng Bi; Teng Teng

2017-07-01

This paper proposes a novel method of electroencephalography (EEG)-based driver emergency braking intention detection system for brain-controlled driving considering one electrode falling-off. First, whether one electrode falls off is discriminated based on EEG potentials. Then, the missing signals are estimated by using the signals collected from other channels based on multivariate linear regression. Finally, a linear decoder is applied to classify driver intentions. Experimental results show that the falling-off discrimination accuracy is 99.63% on average and the correlation coefficient and root mean squared error (RMSE) between the estimated and experimental data are 0.90 and 11.43 μV, respectively, on average. Given one electrode falls off, the system accuracy of the proposed intention prediction method is significantly higher than that of the original method (95.12% VS 79.11%) and is close to that (95.95%) of the original system under normal situations (i. e., no electrode falling-off).

Recent Progress in Engine Noise Reduction Technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huff, Dennis; Gliebe, Philip

2003-01-01

Highlights from NASA-funded research over the past ten years for aircraft engine noise reduction are presented showing overall technical plans, accomplishments, and selected applications to turbofan engines. The work was sponsored by NASA's Advanced Subsonic Technology (AST) Noise Reduction Program. Emphasis is given to only the engine noise reduction research and significant accomplishments that were investigated at Technology Readiness Levels ranging from 4 to 6. The Engine Noise Reduction sub-element was divided into four work areas: source noise prediction, model scale tests, engine validation, and active noise control. Highlights from each area include technologies for higher bypass ratio turbofans, scarf inlets, forward-swept fans, swept and leaned stators, chevron/tabbed nozzles, advanced noise prediction analyses, and active noise control for fans. Finally, an industry perspective is given from General Electric Aircraft Engines showing how these technologies are being applied to commercial products. This publication contains only presentation vu-graphs from an invited lecture given at the 41st AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting, January 6-9, 2003.

Aerodynamic Parameter Estimation for the X-43A (Hyper-X) from Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Eugene A.; Derry, Stephen D.; Smith, Mark S.

2005-01-01

Aerodynamic parameters were estimated based on flight data from the third flight of the X-43A hypersonic research vehicle, also called Hyper-X. Maneuvers were flown using multiple orthogonal phase-optimized sweep inputs applied as simultaneous control surface perturbations at Mach 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, and 3 during the vehicle descent. Aerodynamic parameters, consisting of non-dimensional longitudinal and lateral stability and control derivatives, were estimated from flight data at each Mach number. Multi-step inputs at nearly the same flight conditions were also flown to assess the prediction capability of the identified models. Prediction errors were found to be comparable in magnitude to the modeling errors, which indicates accurate modeling. Aerodynamic parameter estimates were plotted as a function of Mach number, and compared with estimates from the pre-flight aerodynamic database, which was based on wind-tunnel tests and computational fluid dynamics. Agreement between flight estimates and values computed from the aerodynamic database was excellent overall.

Network Controllability in the Inferior Frontal Gyrus Relates to Controlled Language Variability and Susceptibility to TMS.

PubMed

Medaglia, John D; Harvey, Denise Y; White, Nicole; Kelkar, Apoorva; Zimmerman, Jared; Bassett, Danielle S; Hamilton, Roy H

2018-06-08

In language production, humans are confronted with considerable word selection demands. Often, we must select a word from among similar, acceptable, and competing alternative words in order to construct a sentence that conveys an intended meaning. In recent years, the left inferior frontal gyrus (LIFG) has been identified as critical to this ability. Despite a recent emphasis on network approaches to understanding language, how the LIFG interacts with the brain's complex networks to facilitate controlled language performance remains unknown. Here, we take a novel approach to understand word selection as a network control process in the brain. Using an anatomical brain network derived from high-resolution diffusion spectrum imaging (DSI), we computed network controllability underlying the site of transcranial magnetic stimulation in the LIFG between administrations of language tasks that vary in response (cognitive control) demands: open-response (word generation) vs. closed-response (number naming) tasks. We find that a statistic that quantifies the LIFG's theoretically predicted control of communication across modules in the human connectome explains TMS-induced changes in open-response language task performance only. Moreover, we find that a statistic that quantifies the LIFG's theoretically predicted control of difficult-to-reach states explains vulnerability to TMS in the closed-ended (but not open-ended) response task. These findings establish a link between network controllability, cognitive function, and TMS effects. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT This work illustrates that network control statistics applied to anatomical connectivity data demonstrate relationships with cognitive variability during controlled language tasks and TMS effects. Copyright © 2018 the authors.

Asthma medication ratio predicts emergency department visits and hospitalizations in children with asthma.

PubMed

Andrews, Annie Lintzenich; Simpson, Annie N; Basco, William T; Teufel, Ronald J

2013-01-01

To determine if the asthma medication ratio predicts subsequent emergency department (ED) visits and hospital admissions in children. Retrospective cohort with two year pairs. 2007-2009 South Carolina Medicaid recipients with persistent asthma age 2-18. Controller-to-total asthma medication ratios were calculated for each patient in 2007 and 2008. Ratios range from 0-1 (1 = ideal, 0 = no controller). 2008 and 2009 asthma related ED visits, hospitalizations, and a combined outcome of ED visit or hospitalization in the subsequent 3, 6, and 12 month time periods. 19,512 patients were included. Mean age 8.9 years, 58% male, and 55% black. The ratio significantly predicted ED visits and hospitalizations over subsequent 3, 6, and 12 month time periods. The cut-point that maximized the ability to predict visits ranged from 0.4-0.6. A cutpoint of 0.5 was used in the final models. After controlling for age, race, gender, and rurality, patients with a ratio <0.5 were significantly more likely to have a subsequent emergent healthcare visit (OR 1.5-2.0). The ratio retained its predictive ability in both year-pairs for all three outcome variables, in all three time periods, with the exception of the 2008 ratio not predicting 2009 3-month and 6-month hospitalizations. The asthma medication ratio is a significant predictor of ED visits and hospitalizations in children. Using a cutoff of <0.5 to signal at-risk patients may be an effective way for populations who would benefit from increased use of controller medications to reduce future emergent asthma visits. CPT only copyright XXXX-2012 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. CPT is a registered trademark of the American Medical Association. Applicable FARS/DFARS Apply to Government Use. Fee schedules, relative value units, conversion factors and/or related components are not assigned by the AMA, are not part of CPT, and the AMA is not recommending their use. The AMA does not directly or indirectly practice medicine or dispense medical services. The AMA assumes no liability for data contained or not contained herein. See attached CMS CPT 2013 end user license.

Efficient Strategies for Predictive Cell-Level Control of Lithium-Ion Batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xavier, Marcelo A.

This dissertation introduces a set of state-space based model predictive control (MPC) algorithms tailored to a non-zero feedthrough term to account for the ohmic resistance that is inherent to the battery dynamics. MPC is herein applied to the problem of regulating cell-level measures of performance for lithium-ion batteries; the control methodologies are used first to compute a fast charging profile that respects input, output, and state constraints, i.e., input current, terminal voltage, and state of charge for an equivalent circuit model of the battery cell, and extended later to a linearized physics-based reduced-order model. The novelty of this work can summarized as follows: (1) the MPC variants are employed to a physics based reduce-order model in order to make use of the available set of internal electrochemical variables and mitigate internal mechanisms of cell degradation. (e.g., lithium plating); (2) we developed a dual-mode MPC closed-loop paradigm that suits the battery control problem with the objective of reducing computational effort by solving simpler optimization routines and guaranteeing stability; and finally (3) we developed a completely new approach of the use of a predictive control strategy where MPC is employed as a "smart sensor" for power estimation. Results are presented that show the comparative performance of the MPC algorithms for both EMC and PBROM These results highlight that dual-mode MPC can deliver optimal input current profiles by using a shorter horizon while still guaranteeing stability. Additionally, rigorous mathematical developments are presented for the development of the MPC algorithms. The use of MPC as a "smart sensor" presents it self as an appealing method for power estimation, since MPC permits a fully dynamic input profile that is able to achieve performance right at the proper constraint boundaries. Therefore, MPC is expected to produce accurate power limits for each computed sample time when compared to the Bisection method [1] which assumes constant input values over the prediction interval.

Viscoelastic Lithosphere Response and Stress Memory of Tectonic Force History (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusznir, N. J.

2009-12-01

While great attention is often paid to the details of creep deformation mechanisms, brittle failure and their compositional controls when predicting the response of lithosphere to tectonic forces, the lithosphere’s elastic properties are usually neglected; a viscous rheology alone is often used to predict the resulting distribution of stress with depth or to determine lithosphere strength. While this may simplify geodynamic modelling of lithosphere response to tectonic processes, the omission of the elastic properties can often give misleading or false predictions. The addition of the elastic properties of lithosphere material in the form of a visco-elastic rheology results is a fundamentally different lithosphere response. This difference can be illustrated by examining the application of horizontal tectonic force to a section of lithosphere incorporating the brittle-visco-elastic response of each infinitesimal lithosphere layer with temperature and stress dependent viscous rheology. The transient response of a visco-elastic lithosphere to a constant applied tectonic force and the resulting distribution of stress with depth are substantially different from that predicted by a viscous lithosphere model, with the same lithosphere composition and temperature structure, subjected to a constant lateral strain rate. For visco-elastic lithosphere subject to an applied horizontal tectonic force, viscous creep in the lower crust and mantle leads to stress decay in these regions and to stress amplification in the upper lithosphere through stress redistribution. Cooling of lithosphere with a visco-elastic rheology results in thermal stresses which, as a consequence of stress dissipation by creep and brittle failure, results in a complex and sometimes counter-intuitive distribution of stress with depth. This can be most clearly illustrated for the cooling of oceanic lithosphere, however similar or more complex behaviour can be expected to occur for continental lithosphere. The application of changes in applied tectonic force with time to a visco-elastic lithosphere model results in reversals in the sign of stress with depth as a consequence of the “memory” of past stress dissipation by creep and brittle deformation. Because of this “memory”, locally stress polarity may be opposite to that of the current applied tectonic force. A lithosphere with viscous rheology displays no such “memory” of the applied tectonic stress history. The stress “memory” of lithosphere with visco-elastic rheology to its history of applied tectonic force, heating and cooling adds to its effective rheological complexity, particularly for continental lithosphere.

Output-feedback control of combined sewer networks through receding horizon control with moving horizon estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joseph-Duran, Bernat; Ocampo-Martinez, Carlos; Cembrano, Gabriela

2015-10-01

An output-feedback control strategy for pollution mitigation in combined sewer networks is presented. The proposed strategy provides means to apply model-based predictive control to large-scale sewer networks, in-spite of the lack of measurements at most of the network sewers. In previous works, the authors presented a hybrid linear control-oriented model for sewer networks together with the formulation of Optimal Control Problems (OCP) and State Estimation Problems (SEP). By iteratively solving these problems, preliminary Receding Horizon Control with Moving Horizon Estimation (RHC/MHE) results, based on flow measurements, were also obtained. In this work, the RHC/MHE algorithm has been extended to take into account both flow and water level measurements and the resulting control loop has been extensively simulated to assess the system performance according different measurement availability scenarios and rain events. All simulations have been carried out using a detailed physically based model of a real case-study network as virtual reality.

Nonlinear adaptive control system design with asymptotically stable parameter estimation error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishkov, Rumen; Darmonski, Stanislav

2018-01-01

The paper presents a new general method for nonlinear adaptive system design with asymptotic stability of the parameter estimation error. The advantages of the approach include asymptotic unknown parameter estimation without persistent excitation and capability to directly control the estimates transient response time. The method proposed modifies the basic parameter estimation dynamics designed via a known nonlinear adaptive control approach. The modification is based on the generalised prediction error, a priori constraints with a hierarchical parameter projection algorithm, and the stable data accumulation concepts. The data accumulation principle is the main tool for achieving asymptotic unknown parameter estimation. It relies on the parametric identifiability system property introduced. Necessary and sufficient conditions for exponential stability of the data accumulation dynamics are derived. The approach is applied in a nonlinear adaptive speed tracking vector control of a three-phase induction motor.

Sender–receiver systems and applying information theory for quantitative synthetic biology

PubMed Central

Barcena Menendez, Diego; Senthivel, Vivek Raj; Isalan, Mark

2015-01-01

Sender–receiver (S–R) systems abound in biology, with communication systems sending information in various forms. Information theory provides a quantitative basis for analysing these processes and is being applied to study natural genetic, enzymatic and neural networks. Recent advances in synthetic biology are providing us with a wealth of artificial S–R systems, giving us quantitative control over networks with a finite number of well-characterised components. Combining the two approaches can help to predict how to maximise signalling robustness, and will allow us to make increasingly complex biological computers. Ultimately, pushing the boundaries of synthetic biology will require moving beyond engineering the flow of information and towards building more sophisticated circuits that interpret biological meaning. PMID:25282688

Assessment of insulin resistance in Chinese PCOS patients with normal glucose tolerance.

PubMed

Gao, Jing; Zhou, Li; Hong, Jie; Chen, Chen

2017-11-01

The study aimed to investigate insulin resistance (IR) status in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) women with normal glucose tolerance (NGT), and further to evaluate feasible diagnostic method for those patients. Three hundred and twenty-five PCOS women with NGT and ninety-five healthy age-matched controls were recruited with Rotterdam criterion and 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). IR status was estimated following a glycemic and insulinemic OGTT (0, 30, 60, 120, and 180 min). A modified HOMA-IR formula was applied to each time-course value of glycemia and insulinemia. The predictive performance of each IR index was analyzed with the use of ROC curves. Compared with healthy controls, both non-obese and obese PCOS patients with NGT had a higher BMI, serum glucose, insulin value (p < .05). The best predictive index of IR in non-obese PCOS-NGT was a HOMA-M30 value of 20.36 or more (AUC: 0.753). In obese PCOS-NGT population, the best predictive performance was obtained by a HOMA-M60 value of 32.17 or more (AUC: 0.868). IR was common in Chinese PCOS women with NGT, and the early assessment of IR should be heeded. We recommended HOMA-M30 (Cutoff: 20.36) and HOMA-M60 (Cutoff: 32.17) as the best predictive parameters for non-obese and obese PCOS-NGT patients, respectively.

Mercury capture within coal-fired power plant electrostatic precipitators: model evaluation.

PubMed

Clack, Herek L

2009-03-01

Efforts to reduce anthropogenic mercury emissions worldwide have recently focused on a variety of sources, including mercury emitted during coal combustion. Toward that end, much research has been ongoing seeking to develop new processes for reducing coal combustion mercury emissions. Among air pollution control processes that can be applied to coal-fired boilers, electrostatic precipitators (ESPs) are by far the most common, both on a global scale and among the principal countries of India, China, and the U.S. that burn coal for electric power generation. A previously reported theoretical model of in-flight mercury capture within ESPs is herein evaluated against data from a number of full-scale tests of activated carbon injection for mercury emissions control. By using the established particle size distribution of the activated carbon and actual or estimated values of its equilibrium mercury adsorption capacity, the incremental reduction in mercury concentration across each ESP can be predicted and compared to experimental results. Because the model does not incorporate kinetics associated with gas-phase mercury transformation or surface adsorption, the model predictions representthe mass-transfer-limited performance. Comparing field data to model results reveals many facilities performing at or near the predicted mass-transfer-limited maximum, particularly at low rates of sorbent injection. Where agreement is poor between field data and model predictions, additional chemical or physical phenomena may be responsible for reducing mercury removal efficiencies.

A Novel Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction Model for P92 Steel on the Basis of Cyclic Strain Energy Density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Dongmei; Ren, Jianxing; Zhang, Lai-Chang

2016-11-01

A novel creep-fatigue life prediction model was deduced based on an expression of the strain energy density in this study. In order to obtain the expression of the strain energy density, the load-controlled creep-fatigue (CF) tests of P92 steel at 873 K were carried out. Cyclic strain of P92 steel under CF load was divided into elastic strain, applying and unloading plastic strain, creep strain, and anelastic strain. Analysis of cyclic strain indicates that the damage process of P92 steel under CF load consists of three stages, similar to pure creep. According to the characteristics of the strains above, an expression was defined to describe the strain energy density for each cycle. The strain energy density at stable stage is inversely proportional to the total strain energy density dissipated by P92 steel. However, the total strain energy densities under different test conditions are proportional to the fatigue life. Therefore, the expression of the strain energy density at stable stage was chosen to predict the fatigue life. The CF experimental data on P92 steel were employed to verify the rationality of the novel model. The model obtained from the load-controlled CF test of P92 steel with short holding time could predict the fatigue life of P92 steel with long holding time.

Electrical Properties and Power Considerations of a Piezoelectric Actuator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jordan, T.; Ounaies, Z.; Tripp, J.; Tcheng, P.

1999-01-01

This paper assesses the electrical characteristics of piezoelectric wafers for use in aeronautical applications such as active noise control in aircraft. Determination of capacitive behavior and power consumption is necessary to optimize the system configuration and to design efficient driving electronics. Empirical relations are developed from experimental data to predict the capacitance and loss tangent of a PZT5A ceramic as nonlinear functions of both applied peak voltage and driving frequency. Power consumed by the PZT is the rate of energy required to excite the piezoelectric system along with power dissipated due to dielectric loss and mechanical and structural damping. Overall power consumption is thus quantified as a function of peak applied voltage and driving frequency. It was demonstrated that by incorporating the variation of capacitance and power loss with voltage and frequency, satisfactory estimates of power requirements can be obtained. These relations allow general guidelines in selection and application of piezoelectric actuators and driving electronics for active control applications.

Probing the Quantum States of a Single Atom Transistor at Microwave Frequencies.

PubMed

Tettamanzi, Giuseppe Carlo; Hile, Samuel James; House, Matthew Gregory; Fuechsle, Martin; Rogge, Sven; Simmons, Michelle Y

2017-03-28

The ability to apply gigahertz frequencies to control the quantum state of a single P atom is an essential requirement for the fast gate pulsing needed for qubit control in donor-based silicon quantum computation. Here, we demonstrate this with nanosecond accuracy in an all epitaxial single atom transistor by applying excitation signals at frequencies up to ≈13 GHz to heavily phosphorus-doped silicon leads. These measurements allow the differentiation between the excited states of the single atom and the density of states in the one-dimensional leads. Our pulse spectroscopy experiments confirm the presence of an excited state at an energy ≈9 meV, consistent with the first excited state of a single P donor in silicon. The relaxation rate of this first excited state to the ground state is estimated to be larger than 2.5 GHz, consistent with theoretical predictions. These results represent a systematic investigation of how an atomically precise single atom transistor device behaves under radio frequency excitations.

Office and 24-h ambulatory blood pressure control by treatment in general practice: the 'Monitoraggio della pressione ARteriosa nella medicina TErritoriale' study.

PubMed

Zaninelli, Augusto; Parati, Gianfranco; Cricelli, Claudio; Bignamini, Angelo A; Modesti, Pietro A; Pamparana, Franco; Bilo, Grzegorz; Mancia, Giuseppe; Gensini, Gian F

2010-05-01

Guidelines recommend that blood pressure (BP) should be lowered in hypertensive patients to prevent cardiovascular accidents. Management of antihypertensive treatment by general practitioners is usually based on office measurements, which may not allow an assessment of BP control over 24 h, which requires ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) to be implemented. This is rarely done in general practice, and limited information is available on the consistency between the evaluations of the response to treatment provided by office measurement and by ABPM in this setting. To assess concordance between office BP measurements and ABPM-based estimates of hypertension control in a general practice setting. Prospective, comparative between techniques. General practice. Seventy-eight general practices, representative of all Italian regions, participated in this study by recruiting sequential hypertensive adults on stabilized treatment, who were subdivided into even groups with office BP, respectively, controlled or noncontrolled by treatment. In each individual, ABPM was applied by the general practitioner after appropriate training, and 24-h ABP values were defined as controlled or not according to current guidelines. Concordance between office and ABPM evaluation of BP control was assessed with kappa statistics. Positive and negative predictive values of office measurement versus ABPM were estimated. Between July 2005 and November 2006, 190 general practitioners recruited 2059 hypertensive patients based on office BP measurements; in 1728 patients, a 24-h ABPM was performed, yielding 1524 recordings considered as valid for further analysis. The agreement between the assessment of BP control by office measurement and by ABPM was poor (kappa = 0.120), with office measurements showing a satisfactory positive predictive value (0.842) and a poor negative predictive value (0.278); the situation was worse in patients with three or more among the following features: male sex, age of at least 65 years, alcohol consumption, diabetes, and obesity (negative predictive value = 0.149). In general practice, the agreement between assessment of BP control by treatment provided by office and ambulatory BP measurements is better in patients of 'uncontrolled' office BP than in 'controlled' office BP patients. This emphasizes the need for the larger use of out-of-office BP monitoring in a general practice setting, in particular, in patients considered as 'controlled' during consultation.

Real-Time Adaptive Control Allocation Applied to a High Performance Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davidson, John B.; Lallman, Frederick J.; Bundick, W. Thomas

2001-01-01

Abstract This paper presents the development and application of one approach to the control of aircraft with large numbers of control effectors. This approach, referred to as real-time adaptive control allocation, combines a nonlinear method for control allocation with actuator failure detection and isolation. The control allocator maps moment (or angular acceleration) commands into physical control effector commands as functions of individual control effectiveness and availability. The actuator failure detection and isolation algorithm is a model-based approach that uses models of the actuators to predict actuator behavior and an adaptive decision threshold to achieve acceptable false alarm/missed detection rates. This integrated approach provides control reconfiguration when an aircraft is subjected to actuator failure, thereby improving maneuverability and survivability of the degraded aircraft. This method is demonstrated on a next generation military aircraft Lockheed-Martin Innovative Control Effector) simulation that has been modified to include a novel nonlinear fluid flow control control effector based on passive porosity. Desktop and real-time piloted simulation results demonstrate the performance of this integrated adaptive control allocation approach.

Applicability of Existing C3 (Command, Control and Communications) Vulnerability and Hardness Analyses to Sentry System Issues.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-01-13

Naval .1 Ordnance Systems Command ) codes are detailed propagation simulations mostly at lower frequencies . These are combined with WEPH code phenomenology...AD B062349L. Scope /Abstract: This report describes a simple model for predicting the loads on box-like target structures subject to air blast. A... model and applying it to targets which can be approximated by a series of rectangular parallelopipeds. In this report the physical phenomena of high

Feature selection and classification model construction on type 2 diabetic patients' data.

PubMed

Huang, Yue; McCullagh, Paul; Black, Norman; Harper, Roy

2007-11-01

Diabetes affects between 2% and 4% of the global population (up to 10% in the over 65 age group), and its avoidance and effective treatment are undoubtedly crucial public health and health economics issues in the 21st century. The aim of this research was to identify significant factors influencing diabetes control, by applying feature selection to a working patient management system to assist with ranking, classification and knowledge discovery. The classification models can be used to determine individuals in the population with poor diabetes control status based on physiological and examination factors. The diabetic patients' information was collected by Ulster Community and Hospitals Trust (UCHT) from year 2000 to 2004 as part of clinical management. In order to discover key predictors and latent knowledge, data mining techniques were applied. To improve computational efficiency, a feature selection technique, feature selection via supervised model construction (FSSMC), an optimisation of ReliefF, was used to rank the important attributes affecting diabetic control. After selecting suitable features, three complementary classification techniques (Naïve Bayes, IB1 and C4.5) were applied to the data to predict how well the patients' condition was controlled. FSSMC identified patients' 'age', 'diagnosis duration', the need for 'insulin treatment', 'random blood glucose' measurement and 'diet treatment' as the most important factors influencing blood glucose control. Using the reduced features, a best predictive accuracy of 95% and sensitivity of 98% was achieved. The influence of factors, such as 'type of care' delivered, the use of 'home monitoring', and the importance of 'smoking' on outcome can contribute to domain knowledge in diabetes control. In the care of patients with diabetes, the more important factors identified: patients' 'age', 'diagnosis duration' and 'family history', are beyond the control of physicians. Treatment methods such as 'insulin', 'diet' and 'tablets' (a variety of oral medicines) may be controlled. However lifestyle indicators such as 'body mass index' and 'smoking status' are also important and may be controlled by the patient. This further underlines the need for public health education to aid awareness and prevention. More subtle data interactions need to be better understood and data mining can contribute to the clinical evidence base. The research confirms and to a lesser extent challenges current thinking. Whilst fully appreciating the requirement for clinical verification and interpretation, this work supports the use of data mining as an exploratory tool, particularly as the domain is suffering from a data explosion due to enhanced monitoring and the (potential) storage of this data in the electronic health record. FSSMC has proved a useful feature estimator for large data sets, where processing efficiency is an important factor.

Fire Blight Control: The Struggle Goes On. A Comparison of Different Fire Blight Control Methods in Switzerland with Respect to Biosafety, Efficacy and Durability.

PubMed

Gusberti, Michele; Klemm, Urs; Meier, Matthias S; Maurhofer, Monika; Hunger-Glaser, Isabel

2015-09-11

Fire blight (FB), caused by Erwinia amylovora, is one of the most important pome fruit pathogens worldwide. To control this devastating disease, various chemical and biological treatments are commonly applied in Switzerland, but they fail to keep the infection at an acceptable level in years of heavy disease pressure. The Swiss authorities therefore currently allow the controlled use of the antibiotic streptomycin against FB in years that are predicted to have heavy infection periods, but only one treatment per season is permitted. Another strategy for controlling Erwinia is to breed resistant/tolerant apple cultivars. One way of accelerating the breeding process is to obtain resistant cultivars by inserting one or several major resistance genes, using genetic engineering. To date, no study summarizing the impact of different FB control measures on the environment and on human health has been performed. This study consequently aims to compare different disease-control measures (biological control, chemical control, control by antibiotics and by resistant/tolerant apple cultivars obtained through conventional or molecular breeding) applied against E. amylovora, considering different protection goals (protection of human health, environment, agricultural diversity and economic interest), with special emphasis on biosafety aspects. Information on each FB control measure in relation to the specified protection goal was assessed by literature searches and by interviews with experts. Based on our results it can be concluded that the FB control measures currently applied in Switzerland are safe for consumers, workers and the environment. However, there are several gaps in our knowledge of the human health and environmental impacts analyzed: data are missing (1) on long term studies on the efficacy of most of the analyzed FB control measures; (2) on the safety of operators handling streptomycin; (3) on residue analyses of Equisetum plant extract, the copper and aluminum compounds used in apple production; and (4) on the effect of biological and chemical control measures on non-target fauna and flora. These gaps urgently need to be addressed in the near future.

Fire Blight Control: The Struggle Goes On. A Comparison of Different Fire Blight Control Methods in Switzerland with Respect to Biosafety, Efficacy and Durability

PubMed Central

Gusberti, Michele; Klemm, Urs; Meier, Matthias S.; Maurhofer, Monika; Hunger-Glaser, Isabel

2015-01-01

Fire blight (FB), caused by Erwinia amylovora, is one of the most important pome fruit pathogens worldwide. To control this devastating disease, various chemical and biological treatments are commonly applied in Switzerland, but they fail to keep the infection at an acceptable level in years of heavy disease pressure. The Swiss authorities therefore currently allow the controlled use of the antibiotic streptomycin against FB in years that are predicted to have heavy infection periods, but only one treatment per season is permitted. Another strategy for controlling Erwinia is to breed resistant/tolerant apple cultivars. One way of accelerating the breeding process is to obtain resistant cultivars by inserting one or several major resistance genes, using genetic engineering. To date, no study summarizing the impact of different FB control measures on the environment and on human health has been performed. This study consequently aims to compare different disease-control measures (biological control, chemical control, control by antibiotics and by resistant/tolerant apple cultivars obtained through conventional or molecular breeding) applied against E. amylovora, considering different protection goals (protection of human health, environment, agricultural diversity and economic interest), with special emphasis on biosafety aspects. Information on each FB control measure in relation to the specified protection goal was assessed by literature searches and by interviews with experts. Based on our results it can be concluded that the FB control measures currently applied in Switzerland are safe for consumers, workers and the environment. However, there are several gaps in our knowledge of the human health and environmental impacts analyzed: data are missing (1) on long term studies on the efficacy of most of the analyzed FB control measures; (2) on the safety of operators handling streptomycin; (3) on residue analyses of Equisetum plant extract, the copper and aluminum compounds used in apple production; and (4) on the effect of biological and chemical control measures on non-target fauna and flora. These gaps urgently need to be addressed in the near future. PMID:26378562

CisMiner: Genome-Wide In-Silico Cis-Regulatory Module Prediction by Fuzzy Itemset Mining

PubMed Central

Navarro, Carmen; Lopez, Francisco J.; Cano, Carlos; Garcia-Alcalde, Fernando; Blanco, Armando

2014-01-01

Eukaryotic gene control regions are known to be spread throughout non-coding DNA sequences which may appear distant from the gene promoter. Transcription factors are proteins that coordinately bind to these regions at transcription factor binding sites to regulate gene expression. Several tools allow to detect significant co-occurrences of closely located binding sites (cis-regulatory modules, CRMs). However, these tools present at least one of the following limitations: 1) scope limited to promoter or conserved regions of the genome; 2) do not allow to identify combinations involving more than two motifs; 3) require prior information about target motifs. In this work we present CisMiner, a novel methodology to detect putative CRMs by means of a fuzzy itemset mining approach able to operate at genome-wide scale. CisMiner allows to perform a blind search of CRMs without any prior information about target CRMs nor limitation in the number of motifs. CisMiner tackles the combinatorial complexity of genome-wide cis-regulatory module extraction using a natural representation of motif combinations as itemsets and applying the Top-Down Fuzzy Frequent- Pattern Tree algorithm to identify significant itemsets. Fuzzy technology allows CisMiner to better handle the imprecision and noise inherent to regulatory processes. Results obtained for a set of well-known binding sites in the S. cerevisiae genome show that our method yields highly reliable predictions. Furthermore, CisMiner was also applied to putative in-silico predicted transcription factor binding sites to identify significant combinations in S. cerevisiae and D. melanogaster, proving that our approach can be further applied genome-wide to more complex genomes. CisMiner is freely accesible at: http://genome2.ugr.es/cisminer. CisMiner can be queried for the results presented in this work and can also perform a customized cis-regulatory module prediction on a query set of transcription factor binding sites provided by the user. PMID:25268582

A bioavailable strontium isoscape for Western Europe: A machine learning approach

PubMed Central

von Holstein, Isabella C. C.; Laffoon, Jason E.; Willmes, Malte; Liu, Xiao-Ming; Davies, Gareth R.

2018-01-01

Strontium isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr) are gaining considerable interest as a geolocation tool and are now widely applied in archaeology, ecology, and forensic research. However, their application for provenance requires the development of baseline models predicting surficial 87Sr/86Sr variations (“isoscapes”). A variety of empirically-based and process-based models have been proposed to build terrestrial 87Sr/86Sr isoscapes but, in their current forms, those models are not mature enough to be integrated with continuous-probability surface models used in geographic assignment. In this study, we aim to overcome those limitations and to predict 87Sr/86Sr variations across Western Europe by combining process-based models and a series of remote-sensing geospatial products into a regression framework. We find that random forest regression significantly outperforms other commonly used regression and interpolation methods, and efficiently predicts the multi-scale patterning of 87Sr/86Sr variations by accounting for geological, geomorphological and atmospheric controls. Random forest regression also provides an easily interpretable and flexible framework to integrate different types of environmental auxiliary variables required to model the multi-scale patterning of 87Sr/86Sr variability. The method is transferable to different scales and resolutions and can be applied to the large collection of geospatial data available at local and global levels. The isoscape generated in this study provides the most accurate 87Sr/86Sr predictions in bioavailable strontium for Western Europe (R2 = 0.58 and RMSE = 0.0023) to date, as well as a conservative estimate of spatial uncertainty by applying quantile regression forest. We anticipate that the method presented in this study combined with the growing numbers of bioavailable 87Sr/86Sr data and satellite geospatial products will extend the applicability of the 87Sr/86Sr geo-profiling tool in provenance applications. PMID:29847595

Advanced dc motor controller for battery-powered electric vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belsterling, C. A.

1981-01-01

A motor generation set is connected to run from the dc source and generate a voltage in the traction motor armature circuit that normally opposes the source voltage. The functional feasibility of the concept is demonstrated with tests on a Proof of Principle System. An analog computer simulation is developed, validated with the results of the tests, applied to predict the performance of a full scale Functional Model dc Controller. The results indicate high efficiencies over wide operating ranges and exceptional recovery of regenerated energy. The new machine integrates both motor and generator on a single two bearing shaft. The control strategy produces a controlled bidirectional plus or minus 48 volts dc output from the generator permitting full control of a 96 volt dc traction motor from a 48 volt battery, was designed to control a 20 hp traction motor. The controller weighs 63.5 kg (140 lb.) and has a peak efficiency of 90% in random driving modes and 96% during the SAE J 227a/D driving cycle.

Hybrid fuzzy sliding mode control for motorised space tether spin-up when coupled with axial and torsional oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yi; Cartmell, Matthew

2010-03-01

A specialised hybrid controller is applied to the control of a motorised space tether spin-up space coupled with an axial and a torsional oscillation phenomenon. A seven-degree-of-freedom (7-DOF) dynamic model of a motorised momentum exchange tether is used as the basis for interplanetary payload exchange in the context of control. The tether comprises a symmetrical double payload configuration, with an outrigger counter inertia and massive central facility. It is shown that including axial and torsional elasticity permits an enhanced level of performance prediction accuracy and a useful departure from the usual rigid body representations, particularly for accurate payload positioning at strategic points. A simulation with given initial condition data has been devised in a connecting programme between control code written in MATLAB and dynamics simulation code constructed within MATHEMATICA. It is shown that there is an enhanced level of spin-up control for the 7-DOF motorised momentum exchange tether system using the specialised hybrid controller.

Controls on the Environmental Fate of Compounds Controlled by Coupled Hydrologic and Reactive Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hixson, J.; Ward, A. S.; McConville, M.; Remucal, C.

2017-12-01

Current understanding of how compounds interact with hydrologic processes or reactive processes have been well established. However, the environmental fate for compounds that interact with hydrologic AND reactive processes is not well known, yet critical in evaluating environmental risk. Evaluations of risk are often simplified to homogenize processes in space and time and to assess processes independently of one another. However, we know spatial heterogeneity and time-variable reactivities complicate predictions of environmental transport and fate, and is further complicated by the interaction of these processes, limiting our ability to accurately predict risk. Compounds that interact with both systems, such as photolytic compounds, require that both components are fully understood in order to predict transport and fate. Release of photolytic compounds occurs through both unintentional releases and intentional loadings. Evaluating risks associated with unintentional releases and implementing best management practices for intentional releases requires an in-depth understanding of the sensitivity of photolytic compounds to external controls. Lampricides, such as 3-trifluoromethyl-4-nitrophenol (TFM), are broadly applied in the Great Lakes system to control the population of invasive sea lamprey. Over-dosing can yield fish kills and other detrimental impacts. Still, planning accounts for time of passage and dilution, but not the interaction of the physical and chemical systems (i.e., storage in the hyporheic zone and time-variable decay rates). In this study, we model a series of TFM applications to test the efficacy of dosing as a function of system characteristics. Overall, our results demonstrate the complexity associated with photo-sensitive compounds through stream-hyporheic systems, and highlight the need to better understand how physical and chemical systems interact to control transport and fate in the environment.