Predicting Loss-of-Control Boundaries Toward a Piloting Aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barlow, Jonathan; Stepanyan, Vahram; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje

2012-01-01

This work presents an approach to predicting loss-of-control with the goal of providing the pilot a decision aid focused on maintaining the pilot's control action within predicted loss-of-control boundaries. The predictive architecture combines quantitative loss-of-control boundaries, a data-based predictive control boundary estimation algorithm and an adaptive prediction method to estimate Markov model parameters in real-time. The data-based loss-of-control boundary estimation algorithm estimates the boundary of a safe set of control inputs that will keep the aircraft within the loss-of-control boundaries for a specified time horizon. The adaptive prediction model generates estimates of the system Markov Parameters, which are used by the data-based loss-of-control boundary estimation algorithm. The combined algorithm is applied to a nonlinear generic transport aircraft to illustrate the features of the architecture.

Convolutional neural networks for prostate cancer recurrence prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Neeraj; Verma, Ruchika; Arora, Ashish; Kumar, Abhay; Gupta, Sanchit; Sethi, Amit; Gann, Peter H.

2017-03-01

Accurate prediction of the treatment outcome is important for cancer treatment planning. We present an approach to predict prostate cancer (PCa) recurrence after radical prostatectomy using tissue images. We used a cohort whose case vs. control (recurrent vs. non-recurrent) status had been determined using post-treatment follow up. Further, to aid the development of novel biomarkers of PCa recurrence, cases and controls were paired based on matching of other predictive clinical variables such as Gleason grade, stage, age, and race. For this cohort, tissue resection microarray with up to four cores per patient was available. The proposed approach is based on deep learning, and its novelty lies in the use of two separate convolutional neural networks (CNNs) - one to detect individual nuclei even in the crowded areas, and the other to classify them. To detect nuclear centers in an image, the first CNN predicts distance transform of the underlying (but unknown) multi-nuclear map from the input HE image. The second CNN classifies the patches centered at nuclear centers into those belonging to cases or controls. Voting across patches extracted from image(s) of a patient yields the probability of recurrence for the patient. The proposed approach gave 0.81 AUC for a sample of 30 recurrent cases and 30 non-recurrent controls, after being trained on an independent set of 80 case-controls pairs. If validated further, such an approach might help in choosing between a combination of treatment options such as active surveillance, radical prostatectomy, radiation, and hormone therapy. It can also generalize to the prediction of treatment outcomes in other cancers.

A model predictive speed tracking control approach for autonomous ground vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Min; Chen, Huiyan; Xiong, Guangming

2017-03-01

This paper presents a novel speed tracking control approach based on a model predictive control (MPC) framework for autonomous ground vehicles. A switching algorithm without calibration is proposed to determine the drive or brake control. Combined with a simple inverse longitudinal vehicle model and adaptive regulation of MPC, this algorithm can make use of the engine brake torque for various driving conditions and avoid high frequency oscillations automatically. A simplified quadratic program (QP) solving algorithm is used to reduce the computational time, and the approach has been applied in a 16-bit microcontroller. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated via simulations and vehicle tests, which were carried out in a range of speed-profile tracking tasks. With a well-designed system structure, high-precision speed control is achieved. The system can robustly model uncertainty and external disturbances, and yields a faster response with less overshoot than a PI controller.

Predicting influent biochemical oxygen demand: Balancing energy demand and risk management.

PubMed

Zhu, Jun-Jie; Kang, Lulu; Anderson, Paul R

2018-01-01

Ready access to comprehensive influent information can help water reclamation plant (WRP) operators implement better real-time process controls, provide operational reliability and reduce energy consumption. The five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD 5 ), a critical parameter for WRP process control, is expensive and difficult to measure using hard-sensors. An alternative approach based on a soft-sensor methodology shows promise, but can be problematic when used to predict high BOD 5 values. Underestimating high BOD 5 concentrations for process control could result in an insufficient amount of aeration, increasing the risk of an effluent violation. To address this issue, we tested a hierarchical hybrid soft-sensor approach involving multiple linear regression, artificial neural networks (ANN), and compromise programming. While this hybrid approach results in a slight decrease in overall prediction accuracy relative to the approach based on ANN only, the underestimation percentage is substantially lower (37% vs. 61%) for predictions of carbonaceous BOD 5 (CBOD 5 ) concentrations higher than the long-term average value. The hybrid approach is also flexible and can be adjusted depending on the relative importance between energy savings and managing the risk of an effluent violation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Configural approaches to temperament assessment: implications for predicting risk of unintentional injury in children.

PubMed

Berry, Jack W; Schwebel, David C

2009-10-01

This study used two configural approaches to understand how temperament factors (surgency/extraversion, negative affect, and effortful control) might predict child injury risk. In the first approach, clustering procedures were applied to trait dimensions to identify discrete personality prototypes. In the second approach, two- and three-way trait interactions were considered dimensionally in regression models predicting injury outcomes. Injury risk was assessed through four measures: lifetime prevalence of injuries requiring professional medical attention, scores on the Injury Behavior Checklist, and frequency and severity of injuries reported in a 2-week injury diary. In the prototype analysis, three temperament clusters were obtained, which resembled resilient, overcontrolled, and undercontrolled types found in previous research. Undercontrolled children had greater risk of injury than children in the other groups. In the dimensional interaction analyses, an interaction between surgency/extraversion and negative affect tended to predict injury, especially when children lacked capacity for effortful control.

Offline modeling for product quality prediction of mineral processing using modeling error PDF shaping and entropy minimization.

PubMed

Ding, Jinliang; Chai, Tianyou; Wang, Hong

2011-03-01

This paper presents a novel offline modeling for product quality prediction of mineral processing which consists of a number of unit processes in series. The prediction of the product quality of the whole mineral process (i.e., the mixed concentrate grade) plays an important role and the establishment of its predictive model is a key issue for the plantwide optimization. For this purpose, a hybrid modeling approach of the mixed concentrate grade prediction is proposed, which consists of a linear model and a nonlinear model. The least-squares support vector machine is adopted to establish the nonlinear model. The inputs of the predictive model are the performance indices of each unit process, while the output is the mixed concentrate grade. In this paper, the model parameter selection is transformed into the shape control of the probability density function (PDF) of the modeling error. In this context, both the PDF-control-based and minimum-entropy-based model parameter selection approaches are proposed. Indeed, this is the first time that the PDF shape control idea is used to deal with system modeling, where the key idea is to turn model parameters so that either the modeling error PDF is controlled to follow a target PDF or the modeling error entropy is minimized. The experimental results using the real plant data and the comparison of the two approaches are discussed. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

Individual Differences in Approach and Avoidance Inclinations Moderate the Effect of Self-Control Depletion on Ad-Lib Drinking

PubMed Central

Schlauch, Robert C.; Christensen, Rita L.; Derrick, Jaye L.; Crane, Cory A.; Collins, R. Lorraine

2015-01-01

Background The current study sought to examine how exerting self-control to inhibit stereotype use affects alcohol consumption. In addition, we sought to expand previous findings via examination of how individual differences in motivations to approach or avoid alcohol consumption interact with self-control depletion to determine the regulation of ad-lib drinking behavior. Methods Sixty-one social drinkers (31 female) were recruited to participate in a socially relevant self-control depletion task in which they were randomly assigned to one of two creative writing conditions: 1) the self-control depletion condition with explicit instructions to refrain from using stereotypes, or 2) the non-depletion condition in which no instructions were given regarding the use of stereotypes. Participants then completed an ad-lib drinking task and self-report questionnaires pertaining to their motivation to consume alcohol. Results As predicted, results indicated a significant three-way interaction between depletion condition, approach inclinations, and avoidance inclinations. Specifically, self-control depletion predicted greater drinking disinhibition (i.e., mean sip size, total alcohol consumption) only among participants high in both approach and avoidance. Conclusions Taken together, results from the current study highlight the importance of both approach and avoidance inclinations in the failure to regulate alcohol consumption following a routine, socially relevant form of self-control depletion. Our results also suggest that the high approach / high avoidance motivational profile may predict the greatest risk among those actively trying to regulate their drinking. PMID:26756800

Automatic Avoidance Tendencies for Alcohol Cues Predict Drinking After Detoxification Treatment in Alcohol Dependence

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Alcohol dependence is characterized by conflict between approach and avoidance motivational orientations for alcohol that operate in automatic and controlled processes. This article describes the first study to investigate the predictive validity of these motivational orientations for relapse to drinking after discharge from alcohol detoxification treatment in alcohol-dependent patients. One hundred twenty alcohol-dependent patients who were nearing the end of inpatient detoxification treatment completed measures of self-reported (Approach and Avoidance of Alcohol Questionnaire; AAAQ) and automatic (modified Stimulus-Response Compatibility task) approach and avoidance motivational orientations for alcohol. Their drinking behavior was assessed via telephone follow-ups at 2, 4, and 6 months after discharge from treatment. Results indicated that, after controlling for the severity of alcohol dependence, strong automatic avoidance tendencies for alcohol cues were predictive of higher percentage of heavy drinking days (PHDD) at 4-month (β = 0.22, 95% CI [0.07, 0.43]) and 6-month (β = 0.22, 95% CI [0.01, 0.42]) follow-ups. We failed to replicate previous demonstrations of the predictive validity of approach subscales of the AAAQ for relapse to drinking, and there were no significant predictors of PHDD at 2-month follow-up. In conclusion, strong automatic avoidance tendencies predicted relapse to drinking after inpatient detoxification treatment, but automatic approach tendencies and self-reported approach and avoidance tendencies were not predictive in this study. Our results extend previous findings and help to resolve ambiguities with earlier studies that investigated the roles of automatic and controlled cognitive processes in recovery from alcohol dependence. PMID:27935726

Application of model predictive control for optimal operation of wind turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Yuan; Cao, Pei; Tang, J.

2017-04-01

For large-scale wind turbines, reducing maintenance cost is a major challenge. Model predictive control (MPC) is a promising approach to deal with multiple conflicting objectives using the weighed sum approach. In this research, model predictive control method is applied to wind turbine to find an optimal balance between multiple objectives, such as the energy capture, loads on turbine components, and the pitch actuator usage. The actuator constraints are integrated into the objective function at the control design stage. The analysis is carried out in both the partial load region and full load region, and the performances are compared with those of a baseline gain scheduling PID controller. The application of this strategy achieves enhanced balance of component loads, the average power and actuator usages in partial load region.

Muscle Synergies Facilitate Computational Prediction of Subject-Specific Walking Motions

PubMed Central

Meyer, Andrew J.; Eskinazi, Ilan; Jackson, Jennifer N.; Rao, Anil V.; Patten, Carolynn; Fregly, Benjamin J.

2016-01-01

Researchers have explored a variety of neurorehabilitation approaches to restore normal walking function following a stroke. However, there is currently no objective means for prescribing and implementing treatments that are likely to maximize recovery of walking function for any particular patient. As a first step toward optimizing neurorehabilitation effectiveness, this study develops and evaluates a patient-specific synergy-controlled neuromusculoskeletal simulation framework that can predict walking motions for an individual post-stroke. The main question we addressed was whether driving a subject-specific neuromusculoskeletal model with muscle synergy controls (5 per leg) facilitates generation of accurate walking predictions compared to a model driven by muscle activation controls (35 per leg) or joint torque controls (5 per leg). To explore this question, we developed a subject-specific neuromusculoskeletal model of a single high-functioning hemiparetic subject using instrumented treadmill walking data collected at the subject’s self-selected speed of 0.5 m/s. The model included subject-specific representations of lower-body kinematic structure, foot–ground contact behavior, electromyography-driven muscle force generation, and neural control limitations and remaining capabilities. Using direct collocation optimal control and the subject-specific model, we evaluated the ability of the three control approaches to predict the subject’s walking kinematics and kinetics at two speeds (0.5 and 0.8 m/s) for which experimental data were available from the subject. We also evaluated whether synergy controls could predict a physically realistic gait period at one speed (1.1 m/s) for which no experimental data were available. All three control approaches predicted the subject’s walking kinematics and kinetics (including ground reaction forces) well for the model calibration speed of 0.5 m/s. However, only activation and synergy controls could predict the subject’s walking kinematics and kinetics well for the faster non-calibration speed of 0.8 m/s, with synergy controls predicting the new gait period the most accurately. When used to predict how the subject would walk at 1.1 m/s, synergy controls predicted a gait period close to that estimated from the linear relationship between gait speed and stride length. These findings suggest that our neuromusculoskeletal simulation framework may be able to bridge the gap between patient-specific muscle synergy information and resulting functional capabilities and limitations. PMID:27790612

Reducing usage of the computational resources by event driven approach to model predictive control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misik, Stefan; Bradac, Zdenek; Cela, Arben

2017-08-01

This paper deals with a real-time and optimal control of dynamic systems while also considers the constraints which these systems might be subject to. Main objective of this work is to propose a simple modification of the existing Model Predictive Control approach to better suit needs of computational resource-constrained real-time systems. An example using model of a mechanical system is presented and the performance of the proposed method is evaluated in a simulated environment.

Comparison of predictive control methods for high consumption industrial furnace.

PubMed

Stojanovski, Goran; Stankovski, Mile

2013-01-01

We describe several predictive control approaches for high consumption industrial furnace control. These furnaces are major consumers in production industries, and reducing their fuel consumption and optimizing the quality of the products is one of the most important engineer tasks. In order to demonstrate the benefits from implementation of the advanced predictive control algorithms, we have compared several major criteria for furnace control. On the basis of the analysis, some important conclusions have been drawn.

Discovering Pediatric Asthma Phenotypes on the Basis of Response to Controller Medication Using Machine Learning.

PubMed

Ross, Mindy K; Yoon, Jinsung; van der Schaar, Auke; van der Schaar, Mihaela

2018-01-01

Pediatric asthma has variable underlying inflammation and symptom control. Approaches to addressing this heterogeneity, such as clustering methods to find phenotypes and predict outcomes, have been investigated. However, clustering based on the relationship between treatment and clinical outcome has not been performed, and machine learning approaches for long-term outcome prediction in pediatric asthma have not been studied in depth. Our objectives were to use our novel machine learning algorithm, predictor pursuit (PP), to discover pediatric asthma phenotypes on the basis of asthma control in response to controller medications, to predict longitudinal asthma control among children with asthma, and to identify features associated with asthma control within each discovered pediatric phenotype. We applied PP to the Childhood Asthma Management Program study data (n = 1,019) to discover phenotypes on the basis of asthma control between assigned controller therapy groups (budesonide vs. nedocromil). We confirmed PP's ability to discover phenotypes using the Asthma Clinical Research Network/Childhood Asthma Research and Education network data. We next predicted children's asthma control over time and compared PP's performance with that of traditional prediction methods. Last, we identified clinical features most correlated with asthma control in the discovered phenotypes. Four phenotypes were discovered in both datasets: allergic not obese (A + /O - ), obese not allergic (A - /O + ), allergic and obese (A + /O + ), and not allergic not obese (A - /O - ). Of the children with well-controlled asthma in the Childhood Asthma Management Program dataset, we found more nonobese children treated with budesonide than with nedocromil (P = 0.015) and more obese children treated with nedocromil than with budesonide (P = 0.008). Within the obese group, more A + /O + children's asthma was well controlled with nedocromil than with budesonide (P = 0.022) or with placebo (P = 0.011). The PP algorithm performed significantly better (P < 0.001) than traditional machine learning algorithms for both short- and long-term asthma control prediction. Asthma control and bronchodilator response were the features most predictive of short-term asthma control, regardless of type of controller medication or phenotype. Bronchodilator response and serum eosinophils were the most predictive features of asthma control, regardless of type of controller medication or phenotype. Advanced statistical machine learning approaches can be powerful tools for discovery of phenotypes based on treatment response and can aid in asthma control prediction in complex medical conditions such as asthma.

Low-Cloud Feedbacks from Cloud-Controlling Factors: A Review

DOE PAGES

Klein, Stephen A.; Hall, Alex; Norris, Joel R.; ...

2017-10-24

Here, the response to warming of tropical low-level clouds including both marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. Climate model simulations of the response vary widely, reflecting the difficulty the models have in simulating these clouds. These inadequacies have led to alternative approaches to predict low-cloud feedbacks. Here, we review an observational approach that relies on the assumption that observed relationships between low clouds and the “cloud-controlling factors” of the large-scale environment are invariant across time-scales. With this assumption, and given predictions of how the cloud-controlling factors change with climate warming,more » one can predict low-cloud feedbacks without using any model simulation of low clouds. We discuss both fundamental and implementation issues with this approach and suggest steps that could reduce uncertainty in the predicted low-cloud feedback. Recent studies using this approach predict that the tropical low-cloud feedback is positive mainly due to the observation that reflection of solar radiation by low clouds decreases as temperature increases, holding all other cloud-controlling factors fixed. The positive feedback from temperature is partially offset by a negative feedback from the tendency for the inversion strength to increase in a warming world, with other cloud-controlling factors playing a smaller role. A consensus estimate from these studies for the contribution of tropical low clouds to the global mean cloud feedback is 0.25 ± 0.18 W m –2 K –1 (90% confidence interval), suggesting it is very unlikely that tropical low clouds reduce total global cloud feedback. Because the prediction of positive tropical low-cloud feedback with this approach is consistent with independent evidence from low-cloud feedback studies using high-resolution cloud models, progress is being made in reducing this key climate uncertainty.« less

Low-Cloud Feedbacks from Cloud-Controlling Factors: A Review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klein, Stephen A.; Hall, Alex; Norris, Joel R.

Here, the response to warming of tropical low-level clouds including both marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. Climate model simulations of the response vary widely, reflecting the difficulty the models have in simulating these clouds. These inadequacies have led to alternative approaches to predict low-cloud feedbacks. Here, we review an observational approach that relies on the assumption that observed relationships between low clouds and the “cloud-controlling factors” of the large-scale environment are invariant across time-scales. With this assumption, and given predictions of how the cloud-controlling factors change with climate warming,more » one can predict low-cloud feedbacks without using any model simulation of low clouds. We discuss both fundamental and implementation issues with this approach and suggest steps that could reduce uncertainty in the predicted low-cloud feedback. Recent studies using this approach predict that the tropical low-cloud feedback is positive mainly due to the observation that reflection of solar radiation by low clouds decreases as temperature increases, holding all other cloud-controlling factors fixed. The positive feedback from temperature is partially offset by a negative feedback from the tendency for the inversion strength to increase in a warming world, with other cloud-controlling factors playing a smaller role. A consensus estimate from these studies for the contribution of tropical low clouds to the global mean cloud feedback is 0.25 ± 0.18 W m –2 K –1 (90% confidence interval), suggesting it is very unlikely that tropical low clouds reduce total global cloud feedback. Because the prediction of positive tropical low-cloud feedback with this approach is consistent with independent evidence from low-cloud feedback studies using high-resolution cloud models, progress is being made in reducing this key climate uncertainty.« less

A Novel Topology Link-Controlling Approach for Active Defense of a Node in a Network.

PubMed

Li, Jun; Hu, HanPing; Ke, Qiao; Xiong, Naixue

2017-03-09

With the rapid development of virtual machine technology and cloud computing, distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks, or some peak traffic, poses a great threat to the security of the network. In this paper, a novel topology link control technique and mitigation attacks in real-time environments is proposed. Firstly, a non-invasive method of deploying virtual sensors in the nodes is built, which uses the resource manager of each monitored node as a sensor. Secondly, a general topology-controlling approach of resisting the tolerant invasion is proposed. In the proposed approach, a prediction model is constructed by using copula functions for predicting the peak of a resource through another resource. The result of prediction determines whether or not to initiate the active defense. Finally, a minority game with incomplete strategy is employed to suppress attack flows and improve the permeability of the normal flows. The simulation results show that the proposed approach is very effective in protecting nodes.

A Novel Topology Link-Controlling Approach for Active Defense of Nodes in Networks

PubMed Central

Li, Jun; Hu, HanPing; Ke, Qiao; Xiong, Naixue

2017-01-01

With the rapid development of virtual machine technology and cloud computing, distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks, or some peak traffic, poses a great threat to the security of the network. In this paper, a novel topology link control technique and mitigation attacks in real-time environments is proposed. Firstly, a non-invasive method of deploying virtual sensors in the nodes is built, which uses the resource manager of each monitored node as a sensor. Secondly, a general topology-controlling approach of resisting the tolerant invasion is proposed. In the proposed approach, a prediction model is constructed by using copula functions for predicting the peak of a resource through another resource. The result of prediction determines whether or not to initiate the active defense. Finally, a minority game with incomplete strategy is employed to suppress attack flows and improve the permeability of the normal flows. The simulation results show that the proposed approach is very effective in protecting nodes. PMID:28282962

Finite element based model predictive control for active vibration suppression of a one-link flexible manipulator.

PubMed

Dubay, Rickey; Hassan, Marwan; Li, Chunying; Charest, Meaghan

2014-09-01

This paper presents a unique approach for active vibration control of a one-link flexible manipulator. The method combines a finite element model of the manipulator and an advanced model predictive controller to suppress vibration at its tip. This hybrid methodology improves significantly over the standard application of a predictive controller for vibration control. The finite element model used in place of standard modelling in the control algorithm provides a more accurate prediction of dynamic behavior, resulting in enhanced control. Closed loop control experiments were performed using the flexible manipulator, instrumented with strain gauges and piezoelectric actuators. In all instances, experimental and simulation results demonstrate that the finite element based predictive controller provides improved active vibration suppression in comparison with using a standard predictive control strategy. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design of a final approach spacing tool for TRACON air traffic control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Thomas J.; Erzberger, Heinz; Bergeron, Hugh

1989-01-01

This paper describes an automation tool that assists air traffic controllers in the Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) Facilities in providing safe and efficient sequencing and spacing of arrival traffic. The automation tool, referred to as the Final Approach Spacing Tool (FAST), allows the controller to interactively choose various levels of automation and advisory information ranging from predicted time errors to speed and heading advisories for controlling time error. FAST also uses a timeline to display current scheduling and sequencing information for all aircraft in the TRACON airspace. FAST combines accurate predictive algorithms and state-of-the-art mouse and graphical interface technology to present advisory information to the controller. Furthermore, FAST exchanges various types of traffic information and communicates with automation tools being developed for the Air Route Traffic Control Center. Thus it is part of an integrated traffic management system for arrival traffic at major terminal areas.

Control of Systems With Slow Actuators Using Time Scale Separation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stepanyan, Vehram; Nguyen, Nhan

2009-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of controlling a nonlinear plant with a slow actuator using singular perturbation method. For the known plant-actuator cascaded system the proposed scheme achieves tracking of a given reference model with considerably less control demand than would otherwise result when using conventional design techniques. This is the consequence of excluding the small parameter from the actuator dynamics via time scale separation. The resulting tracking error is within the order of this small parameter. For the unknown system the adaptive counterpart is developed based on the prediction model, which is driven towards the reference model by the control design. It is proven that the prediction model tracks the reference model with an error proportional to the small parameter, while the prediction error converges to zero. The resulting closed-loop system with all prediction models and adaptive laws remains stable. The benefits of the approach are demonstrated in simulation studies and compared to conventional control approaches.

Model predictive control of non-linear systems over networks with data quantization and packet loss.

PubMed

Yu, Jimin; Nan, Liangsheng; Tang, Xiaoming; Wang, Ping

2015-11-01

This paper studies the approach of model predictive control (MPC) for the non-linear systems under networked environment where both data quantization and packet loss may occur. The non-linear controlled plant in the networked control system (NCS) is represented by a Tagaki-Sugeno (T-S) model. The sensed data and control signal are quantized in both links and described as sector bound uncertainties by applying sector bound approach. Then, the quantized data are transmitted in the communication networks and may suffer from the effect of packet losses, which are modeled as Bernoulli process. A fuzzy predictive controller which guarantees the stability of the closed-loop system is obtained by solving a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automatic avoidance tendencies for alcohol cues predict drinking after detoxification treatment in alcohol dependence.

PubMed

Field, Matt; Di Lemma, Lisa; Christiansen, Paul; Dickson, Joanne

2017-03-01

Alcohol dependence is characterized by conflict between approach and avoidance motivational orientations for alcohol that operate in automatic and controlled processes. This article describes the first study to investigate the predictive validity of these motivational orientations for relapse to drinking after discharge from alcohol detoxification treatment in alcohol-dependent patients. One hundred twenty alcohol-dependent patients who were nearing the end of inpatient detoxification treatment completed measures of self-reported (Approach and Avoidance of Alcohol Questionnaire; AAAQ) and automatic (modified Stimulus-Response Compatibility task) approach and avoidance motivational orientations for alcohol. Their drinking behavior was assessed via telephone follow-ups at 2, 4, and 6 months after discharge from treatment. Results indicated that, after controlling for the severity of alcohol dependence, strong automatic avoidance tendencies for alcohol cues were predictive of higher percentage of heavy drinking days (PHDD) at 4-month (β = 0.22, 95% CI [0.07, 0.43]) and 6-month (β = 0.22, 95% CI [0.01, 0.42]) follow-ups. We failed to replicate previous demonstrations of the predictive validity of approach subscales of the AAAQ for relapse to drinking, and there were no significant predictors of PHDD at 2-month follow-up. In conclusion, strong automatic avoidance tendencies predicted relapse to drinking after inpatient detoxification treatment, but automatic approach tendencies and self-reported approach and avoidance tendencies were not predictive in this study. Our results extend previous findings and help to resolve ambiguities with earlier studies that investigated the roles of automatic and controlled cognitive processes in recovery from alcohol dependence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Integrating Statistical Machine Learning in a Semantic Sensor Web for Proactive Monitoring and Control.

PubMed

Adeleke, Jude Adekunle; Moodley, Deshendran; Rens, Gavin; Adewumi, Aderemi Oluyinka

2017-04-09

Proactive monitoring and control of our natural and built environments is important in various application scenarios. Semantic Sensor Web technologies have been well researched and used for environmental monitoring applications to expose sensor data for analysis in order to provide responsive actions in situations of interest. While these applications provide quick response to situations, to minimize their unwanted effects, research efforts are still necessary to provide techniques that can anticipate the future to support proactive control, such that unwanted situations can be averted altogether. This study integrates a statistical machine learning based predictive model in a Semantic Sensor Web using stream reasoning. The approach is evaluated in an indoor air quality monitoring case study. A sliding window approach that employs the Multilayer Perceptron model to predict short term PM 2 . 5 pollution situations is integrated into the proactive monitoring and control framework. Results show that the proposed approach can effectively predict short term PM 2 . 5 pollution situations: precision of up to 0.86 and sensitivity of up to 0.85 is achieved over half hour prediction horizons, making it possible for the system to warn occupants or even to autonomously avert the predicted pollution situations within the context of Semantic Sensor Web.

Integrating Statistical Machine Learning in a Semantic Sensor Web for Proactive Monitoring and Control

PubMed Central

Adeleke, Jude Adekunle; Moodley, Deshendran; Rens, Gavin; Adewumi, Aderemi Oluyinka

2017-01-01

Proactive monitoring and control of our natural and built environments is important in various application scenarios. Semantic Sensor Web technologies have been well researched and used for environmental monitoring applications to expose sensor data for analysis in order to provide responsive actions in situations of interest. While these applications provide quick response to situations, to minimize their unwanted effects, research efforts are still necessary to provide techniques that can anticipate the future to support proactive control, such that unwanted situations can be averted altogether. This study integrates a statistical machine learning based predictive model in a Semantic Sensor Web using stream reasoning. The approach is evaluated in an indoor air quality monitoring case study. A sliding window approach that employs the Multilayer Perceptron model to predict short term PM2.5 pollution situations is integrated into the proactive monitoring and control framework. Results show that the proposed approach can effectively predict short term PM2.5 pollution situations: precision of up to 0.86 and sensitivity of up to 0.85 is achieved over half hour prediction horizons, making it possible for the system to warn occupants or even to autonomously avert the predicted pollution situations within the context of Semantic Sensor Web. PMID:28397776

Life extending control: An interdisciplinary engineering thrust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lorenzo, Carl F.; Merrill, Walter C.

1991-01-01

The concept of Life Extending Control (LEC) is introduced. Possible extensions to the cyclic damage prediction approach are presented based on the identification of a model from elementary forms. Several candidate elementary forms are presented. These extensions will result in a continuous or differential form of the damage prediction model. Two possible approaches to the LEC based on the existing cyclic damage prediction method, the measured variables LEC and the estimated variables LEC, are defined. Here, damage estimates or measurements would be used directly in the LEC. A simple hydraulic actuator driven position control system example is used to illustrate the main ideas behind LEC. Results from a simple hydraulic actuator example demonstrate that overall system performance (dynamic plus life) can be maximized by accounting for component damage in the control design.

On the comparison of stochastic model predictive control strategies applied to a hydrogen-based microgrid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velarde, P.; Valverde, L.; Maestre, J. M.; Ocampo-Martinez, C.; Bordons, C.

2017-03-01

In this paper, a performance comparison among three well-known stochastic model predictive control approaches, namely, multi-scenario, tree-based, and chance-constrained model predictive control is presented. To this end, three predictive controllers have been designed and implemented in a real renewable-hydrogen-based microgrid. The experimental set-up includes a PEM electrolyzer, lead-acid batteries, and a PEM fuel cell as main equipment. The real experimental results show significant differences from the plant components, mainly in terms of use of energy, for each implemented technique. Effectiveness, performance, advantages, and disadvantages of these techniques are extensively discussed and analyzed to give some valid criteria when selecting an appropriate stochastic predictive controller.

Model predictive control of P-time event graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamri, H.; Kara, R.; Amari, S.

2016-12-01

This paper deals with model predictive control of discrete event systems modelled by P-time event graphs. First, the model is obtained by using the dater evolution model written in the standard algebra. Then, for the control law, we used the finite-horizon model predictive control. For the closed-loop control, we used the infinite-horizon model predictive control (IH-MPC). The latter is an approach that calculates static feedback gains which allows the stability of the closed-loop system while respecting the constraints on the control vector. The problem of IH-MPC is formulated as a linear convex programming subject to a linear matrix inequality problem. Finally, the proposed methodology is applied to a transportation system.

Experimental evaluation of model predictive control and inverse dynamics control for spacecraft proximity and docking maneuvers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virgili-Llop, Josep; Zagaris, Costantinos; Park, Hyeongjun; Zappulla, Richard; Romano, Marcello

2018-03-01

An experimental campaign has been conducted to evaluate the performance of two different guidance and control algorithms on a multi-constrained docking maneuver. The evaluated algorithms are model predictive control (MPC) and inverse dynamics in the virtual domain (IDVD). A linear-quadratic approach with a quadratic programming solver is used for the MPC approach. A nonconvex optimization problem results from the IDVD approach, and a nonlinear programming solver is used. The docking scenario is constrained by the presence of a keep-out zone, an entry cone, and by the chaser's maximum actuation level. The performance metrics for the experiments and numerical simulations include the required control effort and time to dock. The experiments have been conducted in a ground-based air-bearing test bed, using spacecraft simulators that float over a granite table.

Class-Related Emotions in Secondary Physical Education: A Control-Value Theory Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simonton, Kelly L.; Garn, Alex C.; Solmon, Melinda Ann

2017-01-01

Purpose: Grounded in control-value theory, a model of students' achievement emotions in physical education (PE) was investigated. Methods: A path analysis tested hypotheses that students' (N = 529) perceptions of teacher responsiveness, assertiveness, and clarity predict control and value beliefs which, in turn, predict enjoyment and boredom.…

Group Sequential Testing of the Predictive Accuracy of a Continuous Biomarker with Unknown Prevalence

PubMed Central

Koopmeiners, Joseph S.; Feng, Ziding

2015-01-01

Group sequential testing procedures have been proposed as an approach to conserving resources in biomarker validation studies. Previously, Koopmeiners and Feng (2011) derived the asymptotic properties of the sequential empirical positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value curves, which summarize the predictive accuracy of a continuous marker, under case-control sampling. A limitation of their approach is that the prevalence can not be estimated from a case-control study and must be assumed known. In this manuscript, we consider group sequential testing of the predictive accuracy of a continuous biomarker with unknown prevalence. First, we develop asymptotic theory for the sequential empirical PPV and NPV curves when the prevalence must be estimated, rather than assumed known in a case-control study. We then discuss how our results can be combined with standard group sequential methods to develop group sequential testing procedures and bias-adjusted estimators for the PPV and NPV curve. The small sample properties of the proposed group sequential testing procedures and estimators are evaluated by simulation and we illustrate our approach in the context of a study to validate a novel biomarker for prostate cancer. PMID:26537180

SYSTEMS APPROACH TO CHARACTERIZING AND PREDICTING THYROID TOXICITY

EPA Science Inventory

A systems approach is being undertaken in which in vivo and in vitro assays are integrated to understand the mechanisms of thyroid hormone mediated pathways controlling frog metamorphosis, and more generally the regulation and control of the HPT axis.

Comparison of Predictive Modeling Methods of Aircraft Landing Speed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diallo, Ousmane H.

2012-01-01

Expected increases in air traffic demand have stimulated the development of air traffic control tools intended to assist the air traffic controller in accurately and precisely spacing aircraft landing at congested airports. Such tools will require an accurate landing-speed prediction to increase throughput while decreasing necessary controller interventions for avoiding separation violations. There are many practical challenges to developing an accurate landing-speed model that has acceptable prediction errors. This paper discusses the development of a near-term implementation, using readily available information, to estimate/model final approach speed from the top of the descent phase of flight to the landing runway. As a first approach, all variables found to contribute directly to the landing-speed prediction model are used to build a multi-regression technique of the response surface equation (RSE). Data obtained from operations of a major airlines for a passenger transport aircraft type to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport are used to predict the landing speed. The approach was promising because it decreased the standard deviation of the landing-speed error prediction by at least 18% from the standard deviation of the baseline error, depending on the gust condition at the airport. However, when the number of variables is reduced to the most likely obtainable at other major airports, the RSE model shows little improvement over the existing methods. Consequently, a neural network that relies on a nonlinear regression technique is utilized as an alternative modeling approach. For the reduced number of variables cases, the standard deviation of the neural network models errors represent over 5% reduction compared to the RSE model errors, and at least 10% reduction over the baseline predicted landing-speed error standard deviation. Overall, the constructed models predict the landing-speed more accurately and precisely than the current state-of-the-art.

Noise transmission and reduction in turboprop aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacMartin, Douglas G.; Basso, Gordon L.; Leigh, Barry

1994-09-01

There is considerable interest in reducing the cabin noise environment in turboprop aircraft. Various approaches have been considered at deHaviland Inc., including passive tuned-vibration absorbers, speaker-based noise cancellation, and structural vibration control of the fuselage. These approaches will be discussed briefly. In addition to controlling the noise, a method of predicting the internal noise is required both to evaluate potential noise reduction approaches, and to validate analytical design models. Instead of costly flight tests, or carrying out a ground simulation of the propeller pressure field, a much simpler reciprocal technique can be used. A capacitive scanner is used to measure the fuselage vibration response on a deHaviland Dash-8 fuselage, due to an internal noise source. The approach is validated by comparing this reciprocal noise transmission measurement with the direct measurement. The fuselage noise transmission information is then combined with computer predictions of the propeller pressure field data to predict the internal noise at two points.

Combined Molecular Dynamics Simulation-Molecular-Thermodynamic Theory Framework for Predicting Surface Tensions.

PubMed

Sresht, Vishnu; Lewandowski, Eric P; Blankschtein, Daniel; Jusufi, Arben

2017-08-22

A molecular modeling approach is presented with a focus on quantitative predictions of the surface tension of aqueous surfactant solutions. The approach combines classical Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations with a molecular-thermodynamic theory (MTT) [ Y. J. Nikas, S. Puvvada, D. Blankschtein, Langmuir 1992 , 8 , 2680 ]. The MD component is used to calculate thermodynamic and molecular parameters that are needed in the MTT model to determine the surface tension isotherm. The MD/MTT approach provides the important link between the surfactant bulk concentration, the experimental control parameter, and the surfactant surface concentration, the MD control parameter. We demonstrate the capability of the MD/MTT modeling approach on nonionic alkyl polyethylene glycol surfactants at the air-water interface and observe reasonable agreement of the predicted surface tensions and the experimental surface tension data over a wide range of surfactant concentrations below the critical micelle concentration. Our modeling approach can be extended to ionic surfactants and their mixtures with both ionic and nonionic surfactants at liquid-liquid interfaces.

Standardization of a Hierarchical Transactive Control System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hammerstrom, Donald J.; Oliver, Terry V.; Melton, Ronald B.

2010-12-03

The authors describe work they have conducted toward the generalization and standardization of the transactive control approach that was first demonstrated in the Olympic Peninsula Project for the management of a transmission constraint. The newly generalized approach addresses several potential shortfalls of the prior approach: First, the authors have formalized a hierarchical node structure which defines the nodes and the functional signal pathways between these nodes. Second, by fully generalizing the inputs, outputs, and functional responsibilities of each node, the authors make the approach available to a much wider set of responsive assets and operational objectives. Third, the new, generalizedmore » approach defines transactive signals that include the predicted day-ahead future. This predictive feature allows the market-like bids and offers to become resolved iteratively over time, thus allowing the behaviors of responsive assets to be called upon both for the present and as future dispatch decisions are being made. The hierarchical transactive control approach is a key feature of a proposed Pacific Northwest smart grid demonstration.« less

A distributed predictive control approach for periodic flow-based networks: application to drinking water systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grosso, Juan M.; Ocampo-Martinez, Carlos; Puig, Vicenç

2017-10-01

This paper proposes a distributed model predictive control approach designed to work in a cooperative manner for controlling flow-based networks showing periodic behaviours. Under this distributed approach, local controllers cooperate in order to enhance the performance of the whole flow network avoiding the use of a coordination layer. Alternatively, controllers use both the monolithic model of the network and the given global cost function to optimise the control inputs of the local controllers but taking into account the effect of their decisions over the remainder subsystems conforming the entire network. In this sense, a global (all-to-all) communication strategy is considered. Although the Pareto optimality cannot be reached due to the existence of non-sparse coupling constraints, the asymptotic convergence to a Nash equilibrium is guaranteed. The resultant strategy is tested and its effectiveness is shown when applied to a large-scale complex flow-based network: the Barcelona drinking water supply system.

Cooperative airframe/propulsion control for supersonic cruise aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schweikhard, W. G.; Berry, D. T.

1974-01-01

Interactions between propulsion systems and flight controls have emerged as a major control problem on supersonic cruise aircraft. This paper describes the nature and causes of these interactions and the approaches to predicting and solving the problem. Integration of propulsion and flight control systems appears to be the most promising solution if the interaction effects can be adequately predicted early in the vehicle design. Significant performance, stability, and control improvements may be realized from a cooperative control system.

Efficient operation scheduling for adsorption chillers using predictive optimization-based control methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bürger, Adrian; Sawant, Parantapa; Bohlayer, Markus; Altmann-Dieses, Angelika; Braun, Marco; Diehl, Moritz

2017-10-01

Within this work, the benefits of using predictive control methods for the operation of Adsorption Cooling Machines (ACMs) are shown on a simulation study. Since the internal control decisions of series-manufactured ACMs often cannot be influenced, the work focuses on optimized scheduling of an ACM considering its internal functioning as well as forecasts for load and driving energy occurrence. For illustration, an assumed solar thermal climate system is introduced and a system model suitable for use within gradient-based optimization methods is developed. The results of a system simulation using a conventional scheme for ACM scheduling are compared to the results of a predictive, optimization-based scheduling approach for the same exemplary scenario of load and driving energy occurrence. The benefits of the latter approach are shown and future actions for application of these methods for system control are addressed.

Automatic Train Operation Using Autonomic Prediction of Train Runs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asuka, Masashi; Kataoka, Kenji; Komaya, Kiyotoshi; Nishida, Syogo

In this paper, we present an automatic train control method adaptable to disturbed train traffic conditions. The proposed method presumes transmission of detected time of a home track clearance to trains approaching to the station by employing equipment of Digital ATC (Automatic Train Control). Using the information, each train controls its acceleration by the method that consists of two approaches. First, by setting a designated restricted speed, the train controls its running time to arrive at the next station in accordance with predicted delay. Second, the train predicts the time at which it will reach the current braking pattern generated by Digital ATC, along with the time when the braking pattern transits ahead. By comparing them, the train correctly chooses the coasting drive mode in advance to avoid deceleration due to the current braking pattern. We evaluated the effectiveness of the proposed method regarding driving conditions, energy consumption and reduction of delays by simulation.

Development of a noise prediction model based on advanced fuzzy approaches in typical industrial workrooms.

PubMed

Aliabadi, Mohsen; Golmohammadi, Rostam; Khotanlou, Hassan; Mansoorizadeh, Muharram; Salarpour, Amir

2014-01-01

Noise prediction is considered to be the best method for evaluating cost-preventative noise controls in industrial workrooms. One of the most important issues is the development of accurate models for analysis of the complex relationships among acoustic features affecting noise level in workrooms. In this study, advanced fuzzy approaches were employed to develop relatively accurate models for predicting noise in noisy industrial workrooms. The data were collected from 60 industrial embroidery workrooms in the Khorasan Province, East of Iran. The main acoustic and embroidery process features that influence the noise were used to develop prediction models using MATLAB software. Multiple regression technique was also employed and its results were compared with those of fuzzy approaches. Prediction errors of all prediction models based on fuzzy approaches were within the acceptable level (lower than one dB). However, Neuro-fuzzy model (RMSE=0.53dB and R2=0.88) could slightly improve the accuracy of noise prediction compared with generate fuzzy model. Moreover, fuzzy approaches provided more accurate predictions than did regression technique. The developed models based on fuzzy approaches as useful prediction tools give professionals the opportunity to have an optimum decision about the effectiveness of acoustic treatment scenarios in embroidery workrooms.

Glycemic Control Indices and Their Aggregation in the Prediction of Nocturnal Hypoglycemia From Intermittent Blood Glucose Measurements.

PubMed

Sampath, Sivananthan; Tkachenko, Pavlo; Renard, Eric; Pereverzev, Sergei V

2016-11-01

Despite the risk associated with nocturnal hypoglycemia (NH) there are only a few methods aiming at the prediction of such events based on intermittent blood glucose monitoring data. One of the first methods that potentially can be used for NH prediction is based on the low blood glucose index (LBGI) and suggested, for example, in Accu-Chek® Connect as a hypoglycemia risk indicator. On the other hand, nowadays there are other glucose control indices (GCI), which could be used for NH prediction in the same spirit as LBGI. In the present study we propose a general approach of combining NH predictors constructed from different GCI. The approach is based on a recently developed strategy for aggregating ranking algorithms in machine learning. NH predictors have been calibrated and tested on data extracted from clinical trials, performed in EU FP7-funded project DIAdvisor. Then, to show a portability of the method we have tested it on another dataset that was received from EU Horizon 2020-funded project AMMODIT. We exemplify the proposed approach by aggregating NH predictors that have been constructed based on 4 GCI associated with hypoglycemia. Even though these predictors have been preliminary optimized to exhibit better performance on the considered dataset, our aggregation approach allows a further performance improvement. On the dataset, where a portability of the proposed approach has been demonstrated, the aggregating predictor has exhibited the following performance: sensitivity 77%, specificity 83.4%, positive predictive value 80.2%, negative predictive value 80.6%, which is higher than conventionally considered as acceptable. The proposed approach shows potential to be used in telemedicine systems for NH prediction. © 2016 Diabetes Technology Society.

A Model-Based Approach to Predicting Graduate-Level Performance Using Indicators of Undergraduate-Level Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zimmermann, Judith; Brodersen, Kay H.; Heinimann, Hans R.; Buhmann, Joachim M.

2015-01-01

The graduate admissions process is crucial for controlling the quality of higher education, yet, rules-of-thumb and domain-specific experiences often dominate evidence-based approaches. The goal of the present study is to dissect the predictive power of undergraduate performance indicators and their aggregates. We analyze 81 variables in 171…

Control of Thermo-Acoustics Instabilities: The Multi-Scale Extended Kalman Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le, Dzu K.; DeLaat, John C.; Chang, Clarence T.

2003-01-01

"Multi-Scale Extended Kalman" (MSEK) is a novel model-based control approach recently found to be effective for suppressing combustion instabilities in gas turbines. A control law formulated in this approach for fuel modulation demonstrated steady suppression of a high-frequency combustion instability (less than 500Hz) in a liquid-fuel combustion test rig under engine-realistic conditions. To make-up for severe transport-delays on control effect, the MSEK controller combines a wavelet -like Multi-Scale analysis and an Extended Kalman Observer to predict the thermo-acoustic states of combustion pressure perturbations. The commanded fuel modulation is composed of a damper action based on the predicted states, and a tones suppression action based on the Multi-Scale estimation of thermal excitations and other transient disturbances. The controller performs automatic adjustments of the gain and phase of these actions to minimize the Time-Scale Averaged Variances of the pressures inside the combustion zone and upstream of the injector. The successful demonstration of Active Combustion Control with this MSEK controller completed an important NASA milestone for the current research in advanced combustion technologies.

Missile Guidance Law Based on Robust Model Predictive Control Using Neural-Network Optimization.

PubMed

Li, Zhijun; Xia, Yuanqing; Su, Chun-Yi; Deng, Jun; Fu, Jun; He, Wei

2015-08-01

In this brief, the utilization of robust model-based predictive control is investigated for the problem of missile interception. Treating the target acceleration as a bounded disturbance, novel guidance law using model predictive control is developed by incorporating missile inside constraints. The combined model predictive approach could be transformed as a constrained quadratic programming (QP) problem, which may be solved using a linear variational inequality-based primal-dual neural network over a finite receding horizon. Online solutions to multiple parametric QP problems are used so that constrained optimal control decisions can be made in real time. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness and performance of the proposed guidance control law for missile interception.

The Impact of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty on Air Traffic Controller Performance and Acceptability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mercer, Joey S.; Bienert, Nancy; Gomez, Ashley; Hunt, Sarah; Kraut, Joshua; Martin, Lynne; Morey, Susan; Green, Steven M.; Prevot, Thomas; Wu, Minghong G.

2013-01-01

A Human-In-The-Loop air traffic control simulation investigated the impact of uncertainties in trajectory predictions on NextGen Trajectory-Based Operations concepts, seeking to understand when the automation would become unacceptable to controllers or when performance targets could no longer be met. Retired air traffic controllers staffed two en route transition sectors, delivering arrival traffic to the northwest corner-post of Atlanta approach control under time-based metering operations. Using trajectory-based decision-support tools, the participants worked the traffic under varying levels of wind forecast error and aircraft performance model error, impacting the ground automations ability to make accurate predictions. Results suggest that the controllers were able to maintain high levels of performance, despite even the highest levels of trajectory prediction errors.

An Imbalance of Approach and Effortful Control Predicts Externalizing Problems: Support for Extending the Dual-Systems Model into Early Childhood.

PubMed

Jonas, Katherine; Kochanska, Grazyna

2018-01-25

Although the association between deficits in effortful control and later externalizing behavior is well established, many researchers (Nigg Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 47(3-4), 395-422, 2006; Steinberg Developmental Review, 28(1), 78-106, 2008) have hypothesized this association is actually the product of the imbalance of dual systems, or two underlying traits: approach and self-regulation. Very little research, however, has deployed a statistically robust strategy to examine that compelling model; further, no research has done so using behavioral measures, particularly in longitudinal studies. We examined the imbalance of approach and self-regulation (effortful control, EC) as predicting externalizing problems. Latent trait models of approach and EC were derived from behavioral measures collected from 102 children in a community sample at 25, 38, 52, and 67 months (2 to 5 ½ years), and used to predict externalizing behaviors, modeled as a latent trait derived from parent-reported measures at 80, 100, 123, and 147 months (6 ½ to 12 years). The imbalance hypothesis was supported: Children with an imbalance of approach and EC had more externalizing behavior problems in middle childhood and early preadolescence, relative to children with equal levels of the two traits.

Data-driven modeling and predictive control for boiler-turbine unit using fuzzy clustering and subspace methods.

PubMed

Wu, Xiao; Shen, Jiong; Li, Yiguo; Lee, Kwang Y

2014-05-01

This paper develops a novel data-driven fuzzy modeling strategy and predictive controller for boiler-turbine unit using fuzzy clustering and subspace identification (SID) methods. To deal with the nonlinear behavior of boiler-turbine unit, fuzzy clustering is used to provide an appropriate division of the operation region and develop the structure of the fuzzy model. Then by combining the input data with the corresponding fuzzy membership functions, the SID method is extended to extract the local state-space model parameters. Owing to the advantages of the both methods, the resulting fuzzy model can represent the boiler-turbine unit very closely, and a fuzzy model predictive controller is designed based on this model. As an alternative approach, a direct data-driven fuzzy predictive control is also developed following the same clustering and subspace methods, where intermediate subspace matrices developed during the identification procedure are utilized directly as the predictor. Simulation results show the advantages and effectiveness of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonprincipal plane scattering of flat plates and pattern control of horn antennas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balanis, Constantine A.; Polka, Lesley A.; Liu, Kefeng

1989-01-01

Using the geometrical theory of diffraction, the traditional method of high frequency scattering analysis, the prediction of the radar cross section of a perfectly conducting, flat, rectangular plate is limited to principal planes. Part A of this report predicts the radar cross section in nonprincipal planes using the method of equivalent currents. This technique is based on an asymptotic end-point reduction of the surface radiation integrals for an infinite wedge and enables nonprincipal plane prediction. The predicted radar cross sections for both horizontal and vertical polarizations are compared to moment method results and experimental data from Arizona State University's anechoic chamber. In part B, a variational calculus approach to the pattern control of the horn antenna is outlined. The approach starts with the optimization of the aperture field distribution so that the control of the radiation pattern in a range of directions can be realized. A control functional is thus formulated. Next, a spectral analysis method is introduced to solve for the eigenfunctions from the extremal condition of the formulated functional. Solutions to the optimized aperture field distribution are then obtained.

Approach-bias predicts development of cannabis problem severity in heavy cannabis users: results from a prospective FMRI study.

PubMed

Cousijn, Janna; Goudriaan, Anna E; Ridderinkhof, K Richard; van den Brink, Wim; Veltman, Dick J; Wiers, Reinout W

2012-01-01

A potentially powerful predictor for the course of drug (ab)use is the approach-bias, that is, the pre-reflective tendency to approach rather than avoid drug-related stimuli. Here we investigated the neural underpinnings of cannabis approach and avoidance tendencies. By elucidating the predictive power of neural approach-bias activations for future cannabis use and problem severity, we aimed at identifying new intervention targets. Using functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI), neural approach-bias activations were measured with a Stimulus Response Compatibility task (SRC) and compared between 33 heavy cannabis users and 36 matched controls. In addition, associations were examined between approach-bias activations and cannabis use and problem severity at baseline and at six-month follow-up. Approach-bias activations did not differ between heavy cannabis users and controls. However, within the group of heavy cannabis users, a positive relation was observed between total lifetime cannabis use and approach-bias activations in various fronto-limbic areas. Moreover, approach-bias activations in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) independently predicted cannabis problem severity after six months over and beyond session-induced subjective measures of craving. Higher DLPFC/ACC activity during cannabis approach trials, but lower activity during cannabis avoidance trials were associated with decreases in cannabis problem severity. These findings suggest that cannabis users with deficient control over cannabis action tendencies are more likely to develop cannabis related problems. Moreover, the balance between cannabis approach and avoidance responses in the DLPFC and ACC may help identify individuals at-risk for cannabis use disorders and may be new targets for prevention and treatment.

Approach-Bias Predicts Development of Cannabis Problem Severity in Heavy Cannabis Users: Results from a Prospective FMRI Study

PubMed Central

Cousijn, Janna; Goudriaan, Anna E.; Ridderinkhof, K. Richard; van den Brink, Wim; Veltman, Dick J.; Wiers, Reinout W.

2012-01-01

A potentially powerful predictor for the course of drug (ab)use is the approach-bias, that is, the pre-reflective tendency to approach rather than avoid drug-related stimuli. Here we investigated the neural underpinnings of cannabis approach and avoidance tendencies. By elucidating the predictive power of neural approach-bias activations for future cannabis use and problem severity, we aimed at identifying new intervention targets. Using functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI), neural approach-bias activations were measured with a Stimulus Response Compatibility task (SRC) and compared between 33 heavy cannabis users and 36 matched controls. In addition, associations were examined between approach-bias activations and cannabis use and problem severity at baseline and at six-month follow-up. Approach-bias activations did not differ between heavy cannabis users and controls. However, within the group of heavy cannabis users, a positive relation was observed between total lifetime cannabis use and approach-bias activations in various fronto-limbic areas. Moreover, approach-bias activations in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) independently predicted cannabis problem severity after six months over and beyond session-induced subjective measures of craving. Higher DLPFC/ACC activity during cannabis approach trials, but lower activity during cannabis avoidance trials were associated with decreases in cannabis problem severity. These findings suggest that cannabis users with deficient control over cannabis action tendencies are more likely to develop cannabis related problems. Moreover, the balance between cannabis approach and avoidance responses in the DLPFC and ACC may help identify individuals at-risk for cannabis use disorders and may be new targets for prevention and treatment. PMID:22957019

Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions.

PubMed

Kaufman, Leyla V; Wright, Mark G

2017-07-07

The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions

PubMed Central

Kaufman, Leyla V.; Wright, Mark G.

2017-01-01

The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments. PMID:28686180

Real-time economic nonlinear model predictive control for wind turbine control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gros, Sebastien; Schild, Axel

2017-12-01

Nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) is a strong candidate to handle the control challenges emerging in the modern wind energy industry. Recent research suggested that wind turbine (WT) control based on economic NMPC (ENMPC) can improve the closed-loop performance and simplify the task of controller design when compared to a classical NMPC approach. This paper establishes a formal relationship between the ENMPC controller and the classic NMPC approach, and compares empirically their closed-loop nominal behaviour and performance. The robustness of the performance is assessed for an inaccurate modelling of the tower fore-aft main frequency. Additionally, though a perfect wind preview is assumed here, the effect of having a limited horizon of preview of the wind speed via the LIght Detection And Ranging (LIDAR) sensor is investigated. Finally, this paper provides new algorithmic solutions for deploying ENMPC for WT control, and report improved computational times.

Novel Formulation of Adaptive MPC as EKF Using ANN Model: Multiproduct Semibatch Polymerization Reactor Case Study.

PubMed

Kamesh, Reddi; Rani, Kalipatnapu Yamuna

2017-12-01

In this paper, a novel formulation for nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) has been proposed incorporating the extended Kalman filter (EKF) control concept using a purely data-driven artificial neural network (ANN) model based on measurements for supervisory control. The proposed scheme consists of two modules focusing on online parameter estimation based on past measurements and control estimation over control horizon based on minimizing the deviation of model output predictions from set points along the prediction horizon. An industrial case study for temperature control of a multiproduct semibatch polymerization reactor posed as a challenge problem has been considered as a test bed to apply the proposed ANN-EKFMPC strategy at supervisory level as a cascade control configuration along with proportional integral controller [ANN-EKFMPC with PI (ANN-EKFMPC-PI)]. The proposed approach is formulated incorporating all aspects of MPC including move suppression factor for control effort minimization and constraint-handling capability including terminal constraints. The nominal stability analysis and offset-free tracking capabilities of the proposed controller are proved. Its performance is evaluated by comparison with a standard MPC-based cascade control approach using the same adaptive ANN model. The ANN-EKFMPC-PI control configuration has shown better controller performance in terms of temperature tracking, smoother input profiles, as well as constraint-handling ability compared with the ANN-MPC with PI approach for two products in summer and winter. The proposed scheme is found to be versatile although it is based on a purely data-driven model with online parameter estimation.

Improved model predictive control of resistive wall modes by error field estimator in EXTRAP T2R

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiadi, A. C.; Brunsell, P. R.; Frassinetti, L.

2016-12-01

Many implementations of a model-based approach for toroidal plasma have shown better control performance compared to the conventional type of feedback controller. One prerequisite of model-based control is the availability of a control oriented model. This model can be obtained empirically through a systematic procedure called system identification. Such a model is used in this work to design a model predictive controller to stabilize multiple resistive wall modes in EXTRAP T2R reversed-field pinch. Model predictive control is an advanced control method that can optimize the future behaviour of a system. Furthermore, this paper will discuss an additional use of the empirical model which is to estimate the error field in EXTRAP T2R. Two potential methods are discussed that can estimate the error field. The error field estimator is then combined with the model predictive control and yields better radial magnetic field suppression.

Interpreting Disruption Prediction Models to Improve Plasma Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, Matthew

2017-10-01

In order for the tokamak to be a feasible design for a fusion reactor, it is necessary to minimize damage to the machine caused by plasma disruptions. Accurately predicting disruptions is a critical capability for triggering any mitigative actions, and a modest amount of attention has been given to efforts that employ machine learning techniques to make these predictions. By monitoring diagnostic signals during a discharge, such predictive models look for signs that the plasma is about to disrupt. Typically these predictive models are interpreted simply to give a `yes' or `no' response as to whether a disruption is approaching. However, it is possible to extract further information from these models to indicate which input signals are more strongly correlated with the plasma approaching a disruption. If highly accurate predictive models can be developed, this information could be used in plasma control schemes to make better decisions about disruption avoidance. This work was supported by a Grant from the 2016-2017 Fulbright U.S. Student Program, administered by the Franco-American Fulbright Commission in France.

Expert system and process optimization techniques for real-time monitoring and control of plasma processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Jie; Qian, Zhaogang; Irani, Keki B.; Etemad, Hossein; Elta, Michael E.

1991-03-01

To meet the ever-increasing demand of the rapidly-growing semiconductor manufacturing industry it is critical to have a comprehensive methodology integrating techniques for process optimization real-time monitoring and adaptive process control. To this end we have accomplished an integrated knowledge-based approach combining latest expert system technology machine learning method and traditional statistical process control (SPC) techniques. This knowledge-based approach is advantageous in that it makes it possible for the task of process optimization and adaptive control to be performed consistently and predictably. Furthermore this approach can be used to construct high-level and qualitative description of processes and thus make the process behavior easy to monitor predict and control. Two software packages RIST (Rule Induction and Statistical Testing) and KARSM (Knowledge Acquisition from Response Surface Methodology) have been developed and incorporated with two commercially available packages G2 (real-time expert system) and ULTRAMAX (a tool for sequential process optimization).

Generating optimal control simulations of musculoskeletal movement using OpenSim and MATLAB.

PubMed

Lee, Leng-Feng; Umberger, Brian R

2016-01-01

Computer modeling, simulation and optimization are powerful tools that have seen increased use in biomechanics research. Dynamic optimizations can be categorized as either data-tracking or predictive problems. The data-tracking approach has been used extensively to address human movement problems of clinical relevance. The predictive approach also holds great promise, but has seen limited use in clinical applications. Enhanced software tools would facilitate the application of predictive musculoskeletal simulations to clinically-relevant research. The open-source software OpenSim provides tools for generating tracking simulations but not predictive simulations. However, OpenSim includes an extensive application programming interface that permits extending its capabilities with scripting languages such as MATLAB. In the work presented here, we combine the computational tools provided by MATLAB with the musculoskeletal modeling capabilities of OpenSim to create a framework for generating predictive simulations of musculoskeletal movement based on direct collocation optimal control techniques. In many cases, the direct collocation approach can be used to solve optimal control problems considerably faster than traditional shooting methods. Cyclical and discrete movement problems were solved using a simple 1 degree of freedom musculoskeletal model and a model of the human lower limb, respectively. The problems could be solved in reasonable amounts of time (several seconds to 1-2 hours) using the open-source IPOPT solver. The problems could also be solved using the fmincon solver that is included with MATLAB, but the computation times were excessively long for all but the smallest of problems. The performance advantage for IPOPT was derived primarily by exploiting sparsity in the constraints Jacobian. The framework presented here provides a powerful and flexible approach for generating optimal control simulations of musculoskeletal movement using OpenSim and MATLAB. This should allow researchers to more readily use predictive simulation as a tool to address clinical conditions that limit human mobility.

Generating optimal control simulations of musculoskeletal movement using OpenSim and MATLAB

PubMed Central

Lee, Leng-Feng

2016-01-01

Computer modeling, simulation and optimization are powerful tools that have seen increased use in biomechanics research. Dynamic optimizations can be categorized as either data-tracking or predictive problems. The data-tracking approach has been used extensively to address human movement problems of clinical relevance. The predictive approach also holds great promise, but has seen limited use in clinical applications. Enhanced software tools would facilitate the application of predictive musculoskeletal simulations to clinically-relevant research. The open-source software OpenSim provides tools for generating tracking simulations but not predictive simulations. However, OpenSim includes an extensive application programming interface that permits extending its capabilities with scripting languages such as MATLAB. In the work presented here, we combine the computational tools provided by MATLAB with the musculoskeletal modeling capabilities of OpenSim to create a framework for generating predictive simulations of musculoskeletal movement based on direct collocation optimal control techniques. In many cases, the direct collocation approach can be used to solve optimal control problems considerably faster than traditional shooting methods. Cyclical and discrete movement problems were solved using a simple 1 degree of freedom musculoskeletal model and a model of the human lower limb, respectively. The problems could be solved in reasonable amounts of time (several seconds to 1–2 hours) using the open-source IPOPT solver. The problems could also be solved using the fmincon solver that is included with MATLAB, but the computation times were excessively long for all but the smallest of problems. The performance advantage for IPOPT was derived primarily by exploiting sparsity in the constraints Jacobian. The framework presented here provides a powerful and flexible approach for generating optimal control simulations of musculoskeletal movement using OpenSim and MATLAB. This should allow researchers to more readily use predictive simulation as a tool to address clinical conditions that limit human mobility. PMID:26835184

Acoustic methodology review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schlegel, R. G.

1982-01-01

It is important for industry and NASA to assess the status of acoustic design technology for predicting and controlling helicopter external noise in order for a meaningful research program to be formulated which will address this problem. The prediction methodologies available to the designer and the acoustic engineer are three-fold. First is what has been described as a first principle analysis. This analysis approach attempts to remove any empiricism from the analysis process and deals with a theoretical mechanism approach to predicting the noise. The second approach attempts to combine first principle methodology (when available) with empirical data to formulate source predictors which can be combined to predict vehicle levels. The third is an empirical analysis, which attempts to generalize measured trends into a vehicle noise prediction method. This paper will briefly address each.

Predicting flight delay based on multiple linear regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yi

2017-08-01

Delay of flight has been regarded as one of the toughest difficulties in aviation control. How to establish an effective model to handle the delay prediction problem is a significant work. To solve the problem that the flight delay is difficult to predict, this study proposes a method to model the arriving flights and a multiple linear regression algorithm to predict delay, comparing with Naive-Bayes and C4.5 approach. Experiments based on a realistic dataset of domestic airports show that the accuracy of the proposed model approximates 80%, which is further improved than the Naive-Bayes and C4.5 approach approaches. The result testing shows that this method is convenient for calculation, and also can predict the flight delays effectively. It can provide decision basis for airport authorities.

Non-fragile observer-based output feedback control for polytopic uncertain system under distributed model predictive control approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Kaiqun; Song, Yan; Zhang, Sunjie; Zhong, Zhaozhun

2017-07-01

In this paper, a non-fragile observer-based output feedback control problem for the polytopic uncertain system under distributed model predictive control (MPC) approach is discussed. By decomposing the global system into some subsystems, the computation complexity is reduced, so it follows that the online designing time can be saved.Moreover, an observer-based output feedback control algorithm is proposed in the framework of distributed MPC to deal with the difficulties in obtaining the states measurements. In this way, the presented observer-based output-feedback MPC strategy is more flexible and applicable in practice than the traditional state-feedback one. What is more, the non-fragility of the controller has been taken into consideration in favour of increasing the robustness of the polytopic uncertain system. After that, a sufficient stability criterion is presented by using Lyapunov-like functional approach, meanwhile, the corresponding control law and the upper bound of the quadratic cost function are derived by solving an optimisation subject to convex constraints. Finally, some simulation examples are employed to show the effectiveness of the method.

Model Predictive Flight Control System with Full State Observer using H∞ Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanwale, Jitu; Singh, Dhan Jeet

2018-03-01

This paper presents the application of the model predictive approach to design a flight control system (FCS) for longitudinal dynamics of a fixed wing aircraft. Longitudinal dynamics is derived for a conventional aircraft. Open loop aircraft response analysis is carried out. Simulation studies are illustrated to prove the efficacy of the proposed model predictive controller using H ∞ state observer. The estimation criterion used in the {H}_{∞} observer design is to minimize the worst possible effects of the modelling errors and additive noise on the parameter estimation.

On Predictive Understanding of Extreme Events: Pattern Recognition Approach; Prediction Algorithms; Applications to Disaster Preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Soloviev, A.; Gabrielov, A.

2011-12-01

We describe a uniform approach to predicting different extreme events, also known as critical phenomena, disasters, or crises. The following types of such events are considered: strong earthquakes; economic recessions (their onset and termination); surges of unemployment; surges of crime; and electoral changes of the governing party. A uniform approach is possible due to the common feature of these events: each of them is generated by a certain hierarchical dissipative complex system. After a coarse-graining, such systems exhibit regular behavior patterns; we look among them for "premonitory patterns" that signal the approach of an extreme event. We introduce methodology, based on the optimal control theory, assisting disaster management in choosing optimal set of disaster preparedness measures undertaken in response to a prediction. Predictions with their currently realistic (limited) accuracy do allow preventing a considerable part of the damage by a hierarchy of preparedness measures. Accuracy of prediction should be known, but not necessarily high.

Rate-Based Model Predictive Control of Turbofan Engine Clearance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeCastro, Jonathan A.

2006-01-01

An innovative model predictive control strategy is developed for control of nonlinear aircraft propulsion systems and sub-systems. At the heart of the controller is a rate-based linear parameter-varying model that propagates the state derivatives across the prediction horizon, extending prediction fidelity to transient regimes where conventional models begin to lose validity. The new control law is applied to a demanding active clearance control application, where the objectives are to tightly regulate blade tip clearances and also anticipate and avoid detrimental blade-shroud rub occurrences by optimally maintaining a predefined minimum clearance. Simulation results verify that the rate-based controller is capable of satisfying the objectives during realistic flight scenarios where both a conventional Jacobian-based model predictive control law and an unconstrained linear-quadratic optimal controller are incapable of doing so. The controller is evaluated using a variety of different actuators, illustrating the efficacy and versatility of the control approach. It is concluded that the new strategy has promise for this and other nonlinear aerospace applications that place high importance on the attainment of control objectives during transient regimes.

Pilots Rate Augmented Generalized Predictive Control for Reconfiguration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soloway, Don; Haley, Pam

2004-01-01

The objective of this paper is to report the results from the research being conducted in reconfigurable fight controls at NASA Ames. A study was conducted with three NASA Dryden test pilots to evaluate two approaches of reconfiguring an aircraft's control system when failures occur in the control surfaces and engine. NASA Ames is investigating both a Neural Generalized Predictive Control scheme and a Neural Network based Dynamic Inverse controller. This paper highlights the Predictive Control scheme where a simple augmentation to reduce zero steady-state error led to the neural network predictor model becoming redundant for the task. Instead of using a neural network predictor model, a nominal single point linear model was used and then augmented with an error corrector. This paper shows that the Generalized Predictive Controller and the Dynamic Inverse Neural Network controller perform equally well at reconfiguration, but with less rate requirements from the actuators. Also presented are the pilot ratings for each controller for various failure scenarios and two samples of the required control actuation during reconfiguration. Finally, the paper concludes by stepping through the Generalized Predictive Control's reconfiguration process for an elevator failure.

Centralized and Decentralized Control for Demand Response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Shuai; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng

2011-04-29

Demand response has been recognized as an essential element of the smart grid. Frequency response, regulation and contingency reserve functions performed traditionally by generation resources are now starting to involve demand side resources. Additional benefits from demand response include peak reduction and load shifting, which will defer new infrastructure investment and improve generator operation efficiency. Technical approaches designed to realize these functionalities can be categorized into centralized control and decentralized control, depending on where the response decision is made. This paper discusses these two control philosophies and compares their relative advantages and disadvantages in terms of delay time, predictability, complexity,more » and reliability. A distribution system model with detailed household loads and controls is built to demonstrate the characteristics of the two approaches. The conclusion is that the promptness and reliability of decentralized control should be combined with the predictability and simplicity of centralized control to achieve the best performance of the smart grid.« less

Quality by control: Towards model predictive control of mammalian cell culture bioprocesses.

PubMed

Sommeregger, Wolfgang; Sissolak, Bernhard; Kandra, Kulwant; von Stosch, Moritz; Mayer, Martin; Striedner, Gerald

2017-07-01

The industrial production of complex biopharmaceuticals using recombinant mammalian cell lines is still mainly built on a quality by testing approach, which is represented by fixed process conditions and extensive testing of the end-product. In 2004 the FDA launched the process analytical technology initiative, aiming to guide the industry towards advanced process monitoring and better understanding of how critical process parameters affect the critical quality attributes. Implementation of process analytical technology into the bio-production process enables moving from the quality by testing to a more flexible quality by design approach. The application of advanced sensor systems in combination with mathematical modelling techniques offers enhanced process understanding, allows on-line prediction of critical quality attributes and subsequently real-time product quality control. In this review opportunities and unsolved issues on the road to a successful quality by design and dynamic control implementation are discussed. A major focus is directed on the preconditions for the application of model predictive control for mammalian cell culture bioprocesses. Design of experiments providing information about the process dynamics upon parameter change, dynamic process models, on-line process state predictions and powerful software environments seem to be a prerequisite for quality by control realization. © 2017 The Authors. Biotechnology Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A Stochastic Simulation Framework for the Prediction of Strategic Noise Mapping and Occupational Noise Exposure Using the Random Walk Approach

PubMed Central

Haron, Zaiton; Bakar, Suhaimi Abu; Dimon, Mohamad Ngasri

2015-01-01

Strategic noise mapping provides important information for noise impact assessment and noise abatement. However, producing reliable strategic noise mapping in a dynamic, complex working environment is difficult. This study proposes the implementation of the random walk approach as a new stochastic technique to simulate noise mapping and to predict the noise exposure level in a workplace. A stochastic simulation framework and software, namely RW-eNMS, were developed to facilitate the random walk approach in noise mapping prediction. This framework considers the randomness and complexity of machinery operation and noise emission levels. Also, it assesses the impact of noise on the workers and the surrounding environment. For data validation, three case studies were conducted to check the accuracy of the prediction data and to determine the efficiency and effectiveness of this approach. The results showed high accuracy of prediction results together with a majority of absolute differences of less than 2 dBA; also, the predicted noise doses were mostly in the range of measurement. Therefore, the random walk approach was effective in dealing with environmental noises. It could predict strategic noise mapping to facilitate noise monitoring and noise control in the workplaces. PMID:25875019

The Current Status of Unsteady CFD Approaches for Aerodynamic Flow Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, Mark H.; Singer, Bart A.; Yamaleev, Nail; Vatsa, Veer N.; Viken, Sally A.; Atkins, Harold L.

2002-01-01

An overview of the current status of time dependent algorithms is presented. Special attention is given to algorithms used to predict fluid actuator flows, as well as other active and passive flow control devices. Capabilities for the next decade are predicted, and principal impediments to the progress of time-dependent algorithms are identified.

Prediction of Bispectral Index during Target-controlled Infusion of Propofol and Remifentanil: A Deep Learning Approach.

PubMed

Lee, Hyung-Chul; Ryu, Ho-Geol; Chung, Eun-Jin; Jung, Chul-Woo

2018-03-01

The discrepancy between predicted effect-site concentration and measured bispectral index is problematic during intravenous anesthesia with target-controlled infusion of propofol and remifentanil. We hypothesized that bispectral index during total intravenous anesthesia would be more accurately predicted by a deep learning approach. Long short-term memory and the feed-forward neural network were sequenced to simulate the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parts of an empirical model, respectively, to predict intraoperative bispectral index during combined use of propofol and remifentanil. Inputs of long short-term memory were infusion histories of propofol and remifentanil, which were retrieved from target-controlled infusion pumps for 1,800 s at 10-s intervals. Inputs of the feed-forward network were the outputs of long short-term memory and demographic data such as age, sex, weight, and height. The final output of the feed-forward network was the bispectral index. The performance of bispectral index prediction was compared between the deep learning model and previously reported response surface model. The model hyperparameters comprised 8 memory cells in the long short-term memory layer and 16 nodes in the hidden layer of the feed-forward network. The model training and testing were performed with separate data sets of 131 and 100 cases. The concordance correlation coefficient (95% CI) were 0.561 (0.560 to 0.562) in the deep learning model, which was significantly larger than that in the response surface model (0.265 [0.263 to 0.266], P < 0.001). The deep learning model-predicted bispectral index during target-controlled infusion of propofol and remifentanil more accurately compared to the traditional model. The deep learning approach in anesthetic pharmacology seems promising because of its excellent performance and extensibility.

Interactive contributions of self-regulation deficits and social motivation to psychopathology: Unraveling divergent pathways to aggressive behavior and depressive symptoms

PubMed Central

RUDOLPH, KAREN D.; TROOP-GORDON, WENDY; LLEWELLYN, NICOLE

2015-01-01

Poor self-regulation has been implicated as a significant risk factor for the development of multiple forms of psychopathology. This research examined the proposition that self-regulation deficits differentially predict aggressive behavior and depressive symptoms, depending on children’s social approach versus avoidance motivation. A prospective, multiple-informant approach was used to test this hypothesis in 419 children (M age = 8.92, SD = 0.36). Parents rated children’s inhibitory control. Children completed measures of social approach–avoidance motivation and depressive symptoms. Teachers rated children’s aggressive behavior. As anticipated, poor inhibitory control predicted aggressive behavior in boys with high but not low approach motivation and low but not high avoidance motivation, whereas poor inhibitory control predicted depressive symptoms in girls with high but not low avoidance motivation. This research supports several complementary theoretical models of psychopathology and provides insight into the differential contributions of poor self-regulation to maladaptive developmental outcomes. The findings suggest the need for targeted intervention programs that consider heterogeneity among children with self-regulatory deficits. PMID:23627953

Robust predictive cruise control for commercial vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junell, Jaime; Tumer, Kagan

2013-10-01

In this paper we explore learning-based predictive cruise control and the impact of this technology on increasing fuel efficiency for commercial trucks. Traditional cruise control is wasteful when maintaining a constant velocity over rolling hills. Predictive cruise control (PCC) is able to look ahead at future road conditions and solve for a cost-effective course of action. Model- based controllers have been implemented in this field but cannot accommodate many complexities of a dynamic environment which includes changing road and vehicle conditions. In this work, we focus on incorporating a learner into an already successful model- based predictive cruise controller in order to improve its performance. We explore back propagating neural networks to predict future errors then take actions to prevent said errors from occurring. The results show that this approach improves the model based PCC by up to 60% under certain conditions. In addition, we explore the benefits of classifier ensembles to further improve the gains due to intelligent cruise control.

A predictive pilot model for STOL aircraft landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kleinman, D. L.; Killingsworth, W. R.

1974-01-01

An optimal control approach has been used to model pilot performance during STOL flare and landing. The model is used to predict pilot landing performance for three STOL configurations, each having a different level of automatic control augmentation. Model predictions are compared with flight simulator data. It is concluded that the model can be effective design tool for studying analytically the effects of display modifications, different stability augmentation systems, and proposed changes in the landing area geometry.

Piloted Simulation Evaluation of a Model-Predictive Automatic Recovery System to Prevent Vehicle Loss of Control on Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litt, Jonathan; Liu, Yuan; Sowers, T. Shane; Owen, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei

2014-01-01

This paper describes a model-predictive automatic recovery system for aircraft on the verge of a loss-of-control situation. The system determines when it must intervene to prevent an imminent accident, resulting from a poor approach. It estimates the altitude loss that would result from a go-around maneuver at the current flight condition. If the loss is projected to violate a minimum altitude threshold, the maneuver is automatically triggered. The system deactivates to allow landing once several criteria are met. Piloted flight simulator evaluation showed the system to provide effective envelope protection during extremely unsafe landing attempts. The results demonstrate how flight and propulsion control can be integrated to recover control of the vehicle automatically and prevent a potential catastrophe.

State dependent model predictive control for orbital rendezvous using pulse-width pulse-frequency modulated thrusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Peng; Zhu, Zheng H.; Meguid, S. A.

2016-07-01

This paper studies the pulse-width pulse-frequency modulation based trajectory planning for orbital rendezvous and proximity maneuvering near a non-cooperative spacecraft in an elliptical orbit. The problem is formulated by converting the continuous control input, output from the state dependent model predictive control, into a sequence of pulses of constant magnitude by controlling firing frequency and duration of constant-magnitude thrusters. The state dependent model predictive control is derived by minimizing the control error of states and control roughness of control input for a safe, smooth and fuel efficient approaching trajectory. The resulting nonlinear programming problem is converted into a series of quadratic programming problem and solved by numerical iteration using the receding horizon strategy. The numerical results show that the proposed state dependent model predictive control with the pulse-width pulse-frequency modulation is able to effectively generate optimized trajectories using equivalent control pulses for the proximity maneuvering with less energy consumption.

Control and Optimization of Electric Ship Propulsion Systems with Hybrid Energy Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Jun

Electric ships experience large propulsion-load fluctuations on their drive shaft due to encountered waves and the rotational motion of the propeller, affecting the reliability of the shipboard power network and causing wear and tear. This dissertation explores new solutions to address these fluctuations by integrating a hybrid energy storage system (HESS) and developing energy management strategies (EMS). Advanced electric propulsion drive concepts are developed to improve energy efficiency, performance and system reliability by integrating HESS, developing advanced control solutions and system integration strategies, and creating tools (including models and testbed) for design and optimization of hybrid electric drive systems. A ship dynamics model which captures the underlying physical behavior of the electric ship propulsion system is developed to support control development and system optimization. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed control approaches, a state-of-the-art testbed has been constructed which includes a system controller, Li-Ion battery and ultra-capacitor (UC) modules, a high-speed flywheel, electric motors with their power electronic drives, DC/DC converters, and rectifiers. The feasibility and effectiveness of HESS are investigated and analyzed. Two different HESS configurations, namely battery/UC (B/UC) and battery/flywheel (B/FW), are studied and analyzed to provide insights into the advantages and limitations of each configuration. Battery usage, loss analysis, and sensitivity to battery aging are also analyzed for each configuration. In order to enable real-time application and achieve desired performance, a model predictive control (MPC) approach is developed, where a state of charge (SOC) reference of flywheel for B/FW or UC for B/UC is used to address the limitations imposed by short predictive horizons, because the benefits of flywheel and UC working around high-efficiency range are ignored by short predictive horizons. Given the multi-frequency characteristics of load fluctuations, a filter-based control strategy is developed to illustrate the importance of the coordination within the HESS. Without proper control strategies, the HESS solution could be worse than a single energy storage system solution. The proposed HESS, when introduced into an existing shipboard electrical propulsion system, will interact with the power generation systems. A model-based analysis is performed to evaluate the interactions of the multiple power sources when a hybrid energy storage system is introduced. The study has revealed undesirable interactions when the controls are not coordinated properly, and leads to the conclusion that a proper EMS is needed. Knowledge of the propulsion-load torque is essential for the proposed system-level EMS, but this load torque is immeasurable in most marine applications. To address this issue, a model-based approach is developed so that load torque estimation and prediction can be incorporated into the MPC. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, an input observer with linear prediction is developed as an alternative approach to obtain the load estimation and prediction. Comparative studies are performed to illustrate the importance of load torque estimation and prediction, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in terms of improved efficiency, enhanced reliability, and reduced wear and tear. Finally, the real-time MPC algorithm has been implemented on a physical testbed. Three different efforts have been made to enable real-time implementation: a specially tailored problem formulation, an efficient optimization algorithm and a multi-core hardware implementation. Compared to the filter-based strategy, the proposed real-time MPC achieves superior performance, in terms of the enhanced system reliability, improved HESS efficiency, and extended battery life.

Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions

PubMed Central

Fox, Naomi J.; Marion, Glenn; Davidson, Ross S.; White, Piran C. L.; Hutchings, Michael R.

2012-01-01

Simple Summary Parasitic helminths represent one of the most pervasive challenges to livestock, and their intensity and distribution will be influenced by climate change. There is a need for long-term predictions to identify potential risks and highlight opportunities for control. We explore the approaches to modelling future helminth risk to livestock under climate change. One of the limitations to model creation is the lack of purpose driven data collection. We also conclude that models need to include a broad view of the livestock system to generate meaningful predictions. Abstract Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed. PMID:26486780

Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groves, Curtis; Ilie, Marcel; Schallhorn, Paul

2014-01-01

Spacecraft components may be damaged due to airflow produced by Environmental Control Systems (ECS). There are uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to predict the flow field around a spacecraft from the ECS System. This paper describes an approach to estimate the uncertainty in using CFD to predict the airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft.

Absolute Stability Analysis of a Phase Plane Controlled Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jang, Jiann-Woei; Plummer, Michael; Bedrossian, Nazareth; Hall, Charles; Jackson, Mark; Spanos, Pol

2010-01-01

Many aerospace attitude control systems utilize phase plane control schemes that include nonlinear elements such as dead zone and ideal relay. To evaluate phase plane control robustness, stability margin prediction methods must be developed. Absolute stability is extended to predict stability margins and to define an abort condition. A constrained optimization approach is also used to design flex filters for roll control. The design goal is to optimize vehicle tracking performance while maintaining adequate stability margins. Absolute stability is shown to provide satisfactory stability constraints for the optimization.

Toward autonomous spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fogel, L. J.; Calabrese, P. G.; Walsh, M. J.; Owens, A. J.

1982-01-01

Ways in which autonomous behavior of spacecraft can be extended to treat situations wherein a closed loop control by a human may not be appropriate or even possible are explored. Predictive models that minimize mean least squared error and arbitrary cost functions are discussed. A methodology for extracting cyclic components for an arbitrary environment with respect to usual and arbitrary criteria is developed. An approach to prediction and control based on evolutionary programming is outlined. A computer program capable of predicting time series is presented. A design of a control system for a robotic dense with partially unknown physical properties is presented.

Differing Air Traffic Controller Responses to Similar Trajectory Prediction Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mercer, Joey; Hunt-Espinosa, Sarah; Bienert, Nancy; Laraway, Sean

2016-01-01

A Human-In-The-Loop simulation was conducted in January of 2013 in the Airspace Operations Laboratory at NASA's Ames Research Center. The simulation airspace included two en route sectors feeding the northwest corner of Atlanta's Terminal Radar Approach Control. The focus of this paper is on how uncertainties in the study's trajectory predictions impacted the controllers ability to perform their duties. Of particular interest is how the controllers interacted with the delay information displayed in the meter list and data block while managing the arrival flows. Due to wind forecasts with 30-knot over-predictions and 30-knot under-predictions, delay value computations included errors of similar magnitude, albeit in opposite directions. However, when performing their duties in the presence of these errors, did the controllers issue clearances of similar magnitude, albeit in opposite directions?

Predictive Management of Asian Carps in the Upper Mississippi River System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vondracek, Bruce C.; Carlson, Andrew K.

2014-01-01

Prolific non-native organisms pose serious threats to ecosystems and economies worldwide. Nonnative bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) and silver carp (H. molitrix), collectively referred to as Asian carps, continue to colonize aquatic ecosystems throughout the central United States. These species are r-selected, exhibiting iteroparous spawning, rapid growth, broad environmental tolerance, high density, and long-distance movement. Hydrological, thermal, and physicochemical conditions are favorable for establishment beyond the current range, rendering containment and control imperative. Ecological approaches to confine Asian carp populations and prevent colonization characterize contemporary management in the United States. Foraging and reproduction of Asian carps govern habitat selection and movement, providing valuable insight for predictive control. Current management approaches are progressive and often anticipatory but deficient in human dimensions. We define predictive management of Asian carps as synthesis of ecology and human dimensions at regional and local scales to develop strategies for containment and control. We illustrate predictive management in the Upper Mississippi River System and suggest resource managers integrate predictive models, containment paradigms, and human dimensions to design effective, socially acceptable management strategies. Through continued research, university-agency collaboration, and public engagement, predictive management of Asian carps is an auspicious paradigm for preventing and alleviating consequences of colonization in the United States.

Adaptive Data-based Predictive Control for Short Take-off and Landing (STOL) Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barlow, Jonathan Spencer; Acosta, Diana Michelle; Phan, Minh Q.

2010-01-01

Data-based Predictive Control is an emerging control method that stems from Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC computes current control action based on a prediction of the system output a number of time steps into the future and is generally derived from a known model of the system. Data-based predictive control has the advantage of deriving predictive models and controller gains from input-output data. Thus, a controller can be designed from the outputs of complex simulation code or a physical system where no explicit model exists. If the output data happens to be corrupted by periodic disturbances, the designed controller will also have the built-in ability to reject these disturbances without the need to know them. When data-based predictive control is implemented online, it becomes a version of adaptive control. The characteristics of adaptive data-based predictive control are particularly appropriate for the control of nonlinear and time-varying systems, such as Short Take-off and Landing (STOL) aircraft. STOL is a capability of interest to NASA because conceptual Cruise Efficient Short Take-off and Landing (CESTOL) transport aircraft offer the ability to reduce congestion in the terminal area by utilizing existing shorter runways at airports, as well as to lower community noise by flying steep approach and climb-out patterns that reduce the noise footprint of the aircraft. In this study, adaptive data-based predictive control is implemented as an integrated flight-propulsion controller for the outer-loop control of a CESTOL-type aircraft. Results show that the controller successfully tracks velocity while attempting to maintain a constant flight path angle, using longitudinal command, thrust and flap setting as the control inputs.

The Effect of Visual Information on the Manual Approach and Landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wewerinke, P. H.

1982-01-01

The effect of visual information in combination with basic display information on the approach performance. A pre-experimental model analysis was performed in terms of the optimal control model. The resulting aircraft approach performance predictions were compared with the results of a moving base simulator program. The results illustrate that the model provides a meaningful description of the visual (scene) perception process involved in the complex (multi-variable, time varying) manual approach task with a useful predictive capability. The theoretical framework was shown to allow a straight-forward investigation of the complex interaction of a variety of task variables.

Automatic knowledge extraction from chemical structures: the case of mutagenicity prediction.

PubMed

Ferrari, T; Cattaneo, D; Gini, G; Golbamaki Bakhtyari, N; Manganaro, A; Benfenati, E

2013-01-01

This work proposes a new structure-activity relationship (SAR) approach to mine molecular fragments that act as structural alerts for biological activity. The entire process is designed to fit with human reasoning, not only to make the predictions more reliable but also to permit clear control by the user in order to meet customized requirements. This approach has been tested on the mutagenicity endpoint, showing marked prediction skills and, more interestingly, bringing to the surface much of the knowledge already collected in the literature as well as new evidence.

An efficient approach to understanding and predicting the effects of multiple task characteristics on performance.

PubMed

Richardson, Miles

2017-04-01

In ergonomics there is often a need to identify and predict the separate effects of multiple factors on performance. A cost-effective fractional factorial approach to understanding the relationship between task characteristics and task performance is presented. The method has been shown to provide sufficient independent variability to reveal and predict the effects of task characteristics on performance in two domains. The five steps outlined are: selection of performance measure, task characteristic identification, task design for user trials, data collection, regression model development and task characteristic analysis. The approach can be used for furthering knowledge of task performance, theoretical understanding, experimental control and prediction of task performance. Practitioner Summary: A cost-effective method to identify and predict the separate effects of multiple factors on performance is presented. The five steps allow a better understanding of task factors during the design process.

Robustness and cognition in stabilization problem of dynamical systems based on asymptotic methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubovik, S. A.; Kabanov, A. A.

2017-01-01

The problem of synthesis of stabilizing systems based on principles of cognitive (logical-dynamic) control for mobile objects used under uncertain conditions is considered. This direction in control theory is based on the principles of guaranteeing robust synthesis focused on worst-case scenarios of the controlled process. The guaranteeing approach is able to provide functioning of the system with the required quality and reliability only at sufficiently low disturbances and in the absence of large deviations from some regular features of the controlled process. The main tool for the analysis of large deviations and prediction of critical states here is the action functional. After the forecast is built, the choice of anti-crisis control is the supervisory control problem that optimizes the control system in a normal mode and prevents escape of the controlled process in critical states. An essential aspect of the approach presented here is the presence of a two-level (logical-dynamic) control: the input data are used not only for generating of synthesized feedback (local robust synthesis) in advance (off-line), but also to make decisions about the current (on-line) quality of stabilization in the global sense. An example of using the presented approach for the problem of development of the ship tilting prediction system is considered.

Two Machine Learning Approaches for Short-Term Wind Speed Time-Series Prediction.

PubMed

Ak, Ronay; Fink, Olga; Zio, Enrico

2016-08-01

The increasing liberalization of European electricity markets, the growing proportion of intermittent renewable energy being fed into the energy grids, and also new challenges in the patterns of energy consumption (such as electric mobility) require flexible and intelligent power grids capable of providing efficient, reliable, economical, and sustainable energy production and distribution. From the supplier side, particularly, the integration of renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar) into the grid imposes an engineering and economic challenge because of the limited ability to control and dispatch these energy sources due to their intermittent characteristics. Time-series prediction of wind speed for wind power production is a particularly important and challenging task, wherein prediction intervals (PIs) are preferable results of the prediction, rather than point estimates, because they provide information on the confidence in the prediction. In this paper, two different machine learning approaches to assess PIs of time-series predictions are considered and compared: 1) multilayer perceptron neural networks trained with a multiobjective genetic algorithm and 2) extreme learning machines combined with the nearest neighbors approach. The proposed approaches are applied for short-term wind speed prediction from a real data set of hourly wind speed measurements for the region of Regina in Saskatchewan, Canada. Both approaches demonstrate good prediction precision and provide complementary advantages with respect to different evaluation criteria.

Nonparametric method for failures diagnosis in the actuating subsystem of aircraft control system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terentev, M. N.; Karpenko, S. S.; Zybin, E. Yu; Kosyanchuk, V. V.

2018-02-01

In this paper we design a nonparametric method for failures diagnosis in the aircraft control system that uses the measurements of the control signals and the aircraft states only. It doesn’t require a priori information of the aircraft model parameters, training or statistical calculations, and is based on analytical nonparametric one-step-ahead state prediction approach. This makes it possible to predict the behavior of unidentified and failure dynamic systems, to weaken the requirements to control signals, and to reduce the diagnostic time and problem complexity.

Effortful Control and Parents' Emotion Socialization Patterns Predict Children's Positive Social Behavior: A Person-Centered Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Rachel L.; Dunsmore, Julie C.; Smith, Cynthia L.

2015-01-01

Research Findings: We examined relations of effortful control with parent emotion socialization practices and child social behavior using a person-centered approach in children ages 18 months to 5 years. A total of 76 parents (66 mothers, 10 fathers) completed questionnaires at screening and 6-month follow-up. There were no age differences in…

A Pressure Control Method for Emulsion Pump Station Based on Elman Neural Network

PubMed Central

Tan, Chao; Qi, Nan; Yao, Xingang; Wang, Zhongbin; Si, Lei

2015-01-01

In order to realize pressure control of emulsion pump station which is key equipment of coal mine in the safety production, the control requirements were analyzed and a pressure control method based on Elman neural network was proposed. The key techniques such as system framework, pressure prediction model, pressure control model, and the flowchart of proposed approach were presented. Finally, a simulation example was carried out and comparison results indicated that the proposed approach was feasible and efficient and outperformed others. PMID:25861253

Real-Time Adaptive Control Allocation Applied to a High Performance Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davidson, John B.; Lallman, Frederick J.; Bundick, W. Thomas

2001-01-01

Abstract This paper presents the development and application of one approach to the control of aircraft with large numbers of control effectors. This approach, referred to as real-time adaptive control allocation, combines a nonlinear method for control allocation with actuator failure detection and isolation. The control allocator maps moment (or angular acceleration) commands into physical control effector commands as functions of individual control effectiveness and availability. The actuator failure detection and isolation algorithm is a model-based approach that uses models of the actuators to predict actuator behavior and an adaptive decision threshold to achieve acceptable false alarm/missed detection rates. This integrated approach provides control reconfiguration when an aircraft is subjected to actuator failure, thereby improving maneuverability and survivability of the degraded aircraft. This method is demonstrated on a next generation military aircraft Lockheed-Martin Innovative Control Effector) simulation that has been modified to include a novel nonlinear fluid flow control control effector based on passive porosity. Desktop and real-time piloted simulation results demonstrate the performance of this integrated adaptive control allocation approach.

Adaptive MPC based on MIMO ARX-Laguerre model.

PubMed

Ben Abdelwahed, Imen; Mbarek, Abdelkader; Bouzrara, Kais

2017-03-01

This paper proposes a method for synthesizing an adaptive predictive controller using a reduced complexity model. This latter is given by the projection of the ARX model on Laguerre bases. The resulting model is entitled MIMO ARX-Laguerre and it is characterized by an easy recursive representation. The adaptive predictive control law is computed based on multi-step-ahead finite-element predictors, identified directly from experimental input/output data. The model is tuned in each iteration by an online identification algorithms of both model parameters and Laguerre poles. The proposed approach avoids time consuming numerical optimization algorithms associated with most common linear predictive control strategies, which makes it suitable for real-time implementation. The method is used to synthesize and test in numerical simulations adaptive predictive controllers for the CSTR process benchmark. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A predictive control framework for optimal energy extraction of wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vali, M.; van Wingerden, J. W.; Boersma, S.; Petrović, V.; Kühn, M.

2016-09-01

This paper proposes an adjoint-based model predictive control for optimal energy extraction of wind farms. It employs the axial induction factor of wind turbines to influence their aerodynamic interactions through the wake. The performance index is defined here as the total power production of the wind farm over a finite prediction horizon. A medium-fidelity wind farm model is utilized to predict the inflow propagation in advance. The adjoint method is employed to solve the formulated optimization problem in a cost effective way and the first part of the optimal solution is implemented over the control horizon. This procedure is repeated at the next controller sample time providing the feedback into the optimization. The effectiveness and some key features of the proposed approach are studied for a two turbine test case through simulations.

NAPR: a Cloud-Based Framework for Neuroanatomical Age Prediction.

PubMed

Pardoe, Heath R; Kuzniecky, Ruben

2018-01-01

The availability of cloud computing services has enabled the widespread adoption of the "software as a service" (SaaS) approach for software distribution, which utilizes network-based access to applications running on centralized servers. In this paper we apply the SaaS approach to neuroimaging-based age prediction. Our system, named "NAPR" (Neuroanatomical Age Prediction using R), provides access to predictive modeling software running on a persistent cloud-based Amazon Web Services (AWS) compute instance. The NAPR framework allows external users to estimate the age of individual subjects using cortical thickness maps derived from their own locally processed T1-weighted whole brain MRI scans. As a demonstration of the NAPR approach, we have developed two age prediction models that were trained using healthy control data from the ABIDE, CoRR, DLBS and NKI Rockland neuroimaging datasets (total N = 2367, age range 6-89 years). The provided age prediction models were trained using (i) relevance vector machines and (ii) Gaussian processes machine learning methods applied to cortical thickness surfaces obtained using Freesurfer v5.3. We believe that this transparent approach to out-of-sample evaluation and comparison of neuroimaging age prediction models will facilitate the development of improved age prediction models and allow for robust evaluation of the clinical utility of these methods.

H∞ control for switched fuzzy systems via dynamic output feedback: Hybrid and switched approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiang, Weiming; Xiao, Jian; Iqbal, Muhammad Naveed

2013-06-01

Fuzzy T-S model has been proven to be a practical and effective way to deal with the analysis and synthesis problems for complex nonlinear systems. As for switched nonlinear system, describing its subsystems as fuzzy T-S models, namely switched fuzzy system, naturally is an alternative method to conventional control approaches. In this paper, the H∞ control problem for a class of switched fuzzy systems is addressed. Hybrid and switched design approaches are proposed with different availability of switching signal information at switching instant. The hybrid control strategy includes two parts: fuzzy controllers for subsystems and state updating controller at switching instant, and the switched control strategy contains the controllers for subsystems. It is demonstrated that the conservativeness is reduced by introducing the state updating behavior but its cost is an online prediction of switching signal. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of proposed approaches and compare the conservativeness of two approaches.

Adaptive cruise control with stop&go function using the state-dependent nonlinear model predictive control approach.

PubMed

Shakouri, Payman; Ordys, Andrzej; Askari, Mohamad R

2012-09-01

In the design of adaptive cruise control (ACC) system two separate control loops - an outer loop to maintain the safe distance from the vehicle traveling in front and an inner loop to control the brake pedal and throttle opening position - are commonly used. In this paper a different approach is proposed in which a single control loop is utilized. The objective of the distance tracking is incorporated into the single nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) by extending the original linear time invariant (LTI) models obtained by linearizing the nonlinear dynamic model of the vehicle. This is achieved by introducing the additional states corresponding to the relative distance between leading and following vehicles, and also the velocity of the leading vehicle. Control of the brake and throttle position is implemented by taking the state-dependent approach. The model demonstrates to be more effective in tracking the speed and distance by eliminating the necessity of switching between the two controllers. It also offers smooth variation in brake and throttle controlling signal which subsequently results in a more uniform acceleration of the vehicle. The results of proposed method are compared with other ACC systems using two separate control loops. Furthermore, an ACC simulation results using a stop&go scenario are shown, demonstrating a better fulfillment of the design requirements. Copyright © 2012 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Stationary Lithium-Ion Batteries for Optimization and Predictive Control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baker, Kyri A; Shi, Ying; Christensen, Dane T

Accurately modeling stationary battery storage behavior is crucial to understand and predict its limitations in demand-side management scenarios. In this paper, a lithium-ion battery model was derived to estimate lifetime and state-of-charge for building-integrated use cases. The proposed battery model aims to balance speed and accuracy when modeling battery behavior for real-time predictive control and optimization. In order to achieve these goals, a mixed modeling approach was taken, which incorporates regression fits to experimental data and an equivalent circuit to model battery behavior. A comparison of the proposed battery model output to actual data from the manufacturer validates the modelingmore » approach taken in the paper. Additionally, a dynamic test case demonstrates the effects of using regression models to represent internal resistance and capacity fading.« less

Modeling Stationary Lithium-Ion Batteries for Optimization and Predictive Control: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raszmann, Emma; Baker, Kyri; Shi, Ying

Accurately modeling stationary battery storage behavior is crucial to understand and predict its limitations in demand-side management scenarios. In this paper, a lithium-ion battery model was derived to estimate lifetime and state-of-charge for building-integrated use cases. The proposed battery model aims to balance speed and accuracy when modeling battery behavior for real-time predictive control and optimization. In order to achieve these goals, a mixed modeling approach was taken, which incorporates regression fits to experimental data and an equivalent circuit to model battery behavior. A comparison of the proposed battery model output to actual data from the manufacturer validates the modelingmore » approach taken in the paper. Additionally, a dynamic test case demonstrates the effects of using regression models to represent internal resistance and capacity fading.« less

Predicting asthma exacerbations in children.

PubMed

Forno, Erick; Celedón, Juan C

2012-01-01

This review critically assesses recently published literature on predicting asthma exacerbations in children, while also providing general recommendations for future research in this field. Current evidence suggests that every effort should be made to provide optimal treatment to achieve adequate asthma control, as this will significantly reduce the risk of severe disease exacerbations. Children who have had at least one asthma exacerbation in the previous year are at highest risk for subsequent exacerbations, regardless of disease severity and/or control. Although several tools and biomarkers to predict asthma exacerbations have been recently developed, these approaches need further validation and/or have only had partial success in identifying children at risk. Although considerable progress has been made, much remains to be done. Future studies should clearly differentiate severe asthma exacerbations due to inadequate asthma control from those occurring in children whose asthma is well controlled, utilize standardized definitions of asthma exacerbations, and use a systematic approach to identify the best predictors after accounting for the multiple dimensions of the problem. Our ability to correctly predict the development of severe asthma exacerbations in an individual child should improve in parallel with increased knowledge and/or understanding of the complex interactions among genetic, environmental (e.g. viral infections) and lifestyle (e.g. adherence to treatment) factors underlying these events.

Model-on-Demand Predictive Control for Nonlinear Hybrid Systems With Application to Adaptive Behavioral Interventions

PubMed Central

Nandola, Naresh N.; Rivera, Daniel E.

2011-01-01

This paper presents a data-centric modeling and predictive control approach for nonlinear hybrid systems. System identification of hybrid systems represents a challenging problem because model parameters depend on the mode or operating point of the system. The proposed algorithm applies Model-on-Demand (MoD) estimation to generate a local linear approximation of the nonlinear hybrid system at each time step, using a small subset of data selected by an adaptive bandwidth selector. The appeal of the MoD approach lies in the fact that model parameters are estimated based on a current operating point; hence estimation of locations or modes governed by autonomous discrete events is achieved automatically. The local MoD model is then converted into a mixed logical dynamical (MLD) system representation which can be used directly in a model predictive control (MPC) law for hybrid systems using multiple-degree-of-freedom tuning. The effectiveness of the proposed MoD predictive control algorithm for nonlinear hybrid systems is demonstrated on a hypothetical adaptive behavioral intervention problem inspired by Fast Track, a real-life preventive intervention for improving parental function and reducing conduct disorder in at-risk children. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can be useful for adaptive intervention problems exhibiting both nonlinear and hybrid character. PMID:21874087

Spatial pattern formation facilitates eradication of infectious diseases

PubMed Central

Eisinger, Dirk; Thulke, Hans-Hermann

2008-01-01

Control of animal-born diseases is a major challenge faced by applied ecologists and public health managers. To improve cost-effectiveness, the effort required to control such pathogens needs to be predicted as accurately as possible. In this context, we reviewed the anti-rabies vaccination schemes applied around the world during the past 25 years. We contrasted predictions from classic approaches based on theoretical population ecology (which governs rabies control to date) with a newly developed individual-based model. Our spatially explicit approach allowed for the reproduction of pattern formation emerging from a pathogen's spread through its host population. We suggest that a much lower management effort could eliminate the disease than that currently in operation. This is supported by empirical evidence from historic field data. Adapting control measures to the new prediction would save one-third of resources in future control programmes. The reason for the lower prediction is the spatial structure formed by spreading infections in spatially arranged host populations. It is not the result of technical differences between models. Synthesis and applications. For diseases predominantly transmitted by neighbourhood interaction, our findings suggest that the emergence of spatial structures facilitates eradication. This may have substantial implications for the cost-effectiveness of existing disease management schemes, and suggests that when planning management strategies consideration must be given to methods that reflect the spatial nature of the pathogen–host system. PMID:18784795

Robust PBPK/PD-Based Model Predictive Control of Blood Glucose.

PubMed

Schaller, Stephan; Lippert, Jorg; Schaupp, Lukas; Pieber, Thomas R; Schuppert, Andreas; Eissing, Thomas

2016-07-01

Automated glucose control (AGC) has not yet reached the point where it can be applied clinically [3]. Challenges are accuracy of subcutaneous (SC) glucose sensors, physiological lag times, and both inter- and intraindividual variability. To address above issues, we developed a novel scheme for MPC that can be applied to AGC. An individualizable generic whole-body physiology-based pharmacokinetic and dynamics (PBPK/PD) model of the glucose, insulin, and glucagon metabolism has been used as the predictive kernel. The high level of mechanistic detail represented by the model takes full advantage of the potential of MPC and may make long-term prediction possible as it captures at least some relevant sources of variability [4]. Robustness against uncertainties was increased by a control cascade relying on proportional-integrative derivative-based offset control. The performance of this AGC scheme was evaluated in silico and retrospectively using data from clinical trials. This analysis revealed that our approach handles sensor noise with a MARD of 10%-14%, and model uncertainties and disturbances. The results suggest that PBPK/PD models are well suited for MPC in a glucose control setting, and that their predictive power in combination with the integrated database-driven (a priori individualizable) model framework will help overcome current challenges in the development of AGC systems. This study provides a new, generic, and robust mechanistic approach to AGC using a PBPK platform with extensive a priori (database) knowledge for individualization.

Reaching out towards cannabis: approach-bias in heavy cannabis users predicts changes in cannabis use

PubMed Central

Cousijn, Janna; Goudriaan, Anna E; Wiers, Reinout W

2011-01-01

Aims Repeated drug exposure can lead to an approach-bias, i.e. the relatively automatically triggered tendencies to approach rather that avoid drug-related stimuli. Our main aim was to study this approach-bias in heavy cannabis users with the newly developed cannabis Approach Avoidance Task (cannabis-AAT) and to investigate the predictive relationship between an approach-bias for cannabis-related materials and levels of cannabis use, craving, and the course of cannabis use. Design, settings and participants Cross-sectional assessment and six-month follow-up in 32 heavy cannabis users and 39 non-using controls. Measurements Approach and avoidance action-tendencies towards cannabis and neutral images were assessed with the cannabis AAT. During the AAT, participants pulled or pushed a joystick in response to image orientation. To generate additional sense of approach or avoidance, pulling the joystick increased picture size while pushing decreased it. Craving was measured pre- and post-test with the multi-factorial Marijuana Craving Questionnaire (MCQ). Cannabis use frequencies and levels of dependence were measured at baseline and after a six-month follow-up. Findings Heavy cannabis users demonstrated an approach-bias for cannabis images, as compared to controls. The approach-bias predicted changes in cannabis use at six-month follow-up. The pre-test MCQ emotionality and expectancy factor were associated negatively with the approach-bias. No effects were found on levels of cannabis dependence. Conclusions Heavy cannabis users with a strong approach-bias for cannabis are more likely to increase their cannabis use. This approach-bias could be used as a predictor of the course of cannabis use to identify individuals at risk from increasing cannabis use. PMID:21518067

A Grammatical Approach to RNA-RNA Interaction Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, Yuki; Akutsu, Tatsuya; Seki, Hiroyuki

2007-11-01

Much attention has been paid to two interacting RNA molecules involved in post-transcriptional control of gene expression. Although there have been a few studies on RNA-RNA interaction prediction based on dynamic programming algorithm, no grammar-based approach has been proposed. The purpose of this paper is to provide a new modeling for RNA-RNA interaction based on multiple context-free grammar (MCFG). We present a polynomial time parsing algorithm for finding the most likely derivation tree for the stochastic version of MCFG, which is applicable to RNA joint secondary structure prediction including kissing hairpin loops. Also, elementary tests on RNA-RNA interaction prediction have shown that the proposed method is comparable to Alkan et al.'s method.

An alternative approach based on artificial neural networks to study controlled drug release.

PubMed

Reis, Marcus A A; Sinisterra, Rubén D; Belchior, Jadson C

2004-02-01

An alternative methodology based on artificial neural networks is proposed to be a complementary tool to other conventional methods to study controlled drug release. Two systems are used to test the approach; namely, hydrocortisone in a biodegradable matrix and rhodium (II) butyrate complexes in a bioceramic matrix. Two well-established mathematical models are used to simulate different release profiles as a function of fundamental properties; namely, diffusion coefficient (D), saturation solubility (C(s)), drug loading (A), and the height of the device (h). The models were tested, and the results show that these fundamental properties can be predicted after learning the experimental or model data for controlled drug release systems. The neural network results obtained after the learning stage can be considered to quantitatively predict ideal experimental conditions. Overall, the proposed methodology was shown to be efficient for ideal experiments, with a relative average error of <1% in both tests. This approach can be useful for the experimental analysis to simulate and design efficient controlled drug-release systems. Copyright 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association

Datamining approaches for modeling tumor control probability.

PubMed

Naqa, Issam El; Deasy, Joseph O; Mu, Yi; Huang, Ellen; Hope, Andrew J; Lindsay, Patricia E; Apte, Aditya; Alaly, James; Bradley, Jeffrey D

2010-11-01

Tumor control probability (TCP) to radiotherapy is determined by complex interactions between tumor biology, tumor microenvironment, radiation dosimetry, and patient-related variables. The complexity of these heterogeneous variable interactions constitutes a challenge for building predictive models for routine clinical practice. We describe a datamining framework that can unravel the higher order relationships among dosimetric dose-volume prognostic variables, interrogate various radiobiological processes, and generalize to unseen data before when applied prospectively. Several datamining approaches are discussed that include dose-volume metrics, equivalent uniform dose, mechanistic Poisson model, and model building methods using statistical regression and machine learning techniques. Institutional datasets of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients are used to demonstrate these methods. The performance of the different methods was evaluated using bivariate Spearman rank correlations (rs). Over-fitting was controlled via resampling methods. Using a dataset of 56 patients with primary NCSLC tumors and 23 candidate variables, we estimated GTV volume and V75 to be the best model parameters for predicting TCP using statistical resampling and a logistic model. Using these variables, the support vector machine (SVM) kernel method provided superior performance for TCP prediction with an rs=0.68 on leave-one-out testing compared to logistic regression (rs=0.4), Poisson-based TCP (rs=0.33), and cell kill equivalent uniform dose model (rs=0.17). The prediction of treatment response can be improved by utilizing datamining approaches, which are able to unravel important non-linear complex interactions among model variables and have the capacity to predict on unseen data for prospective clinical applications.

Science--A Process Approach, Product Development Report No. 8.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sanderson, Barbara A.; Kratochvil, Daniel W.

Science - A Process Approach, a science program for grades kindergarten through sixth, mainly focuses on scientific processes: observing, classifying, using numbers, measuring, space/time relationships, communicating, predicting, inferring, defining operationally, formulating hypotheses, interpreting data, controlling variables, and experimenting.…

A Final Approach Trajectory Model for Current Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gong, Chester; Sadovsky, Alexander

2010-01-01

Predicting accurate trajectories with limited intent information is a challenge faced by air traffic management decision support tools in operation today. One such tool is the FAA's Terminal Proximity Alert system which is intended to assist controllers in maintaining safe separation of arrival aircraft during final approach. In an effort to improve the performance of such tools, two final approach trajectory models are proposed; one based on polynomial interpolation, the other on the Fourier transform. These models were tested against actual traffic data and used to study effects of the key final approach trajectory modeling parameters of wind, aircraft type, and weight class, on trajectory prediction accuracy. Using only the limited intent data available to today's ATM system, both the polynomial interpolation and Fourier transform models showed improved trajectory prediction accuracy over a baseline dead reckoning model. Analysis of actual arrival traffic showed that this improved trajectory prediction accuracy leads to improved inter-arrival separation prediction accuracy for longer look ahead times. The difference in mean inter-arrival separation prediction error between the Fourier transform and dead reckoning models was 0.2 nmi for a look ahead time of 120 sec, a 33 percent improvement, with a corresponding 32 percent improvement in standard deviation.

Prestraining and Its Influence on Subsequent Fatigue Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, Gary R.; Mcgaw, Michael A.; Kalluri, Sreeramesh

1995-01-01

An experimental program was conducted to study the damaging effects of tensile and compressive prestrains on the fatigue life of nickel-base, Inconel 718 superalloy at room temperature. To establish baseline fatigue behavior, virgin specimens with a solid uniform gage section were fatigued to failure under fully-reversed strain-control. Additional specimens were prestrained to 2 percent, 5 percent, and 10 percent (engineering strains) in the tensile direction and to 2 percent (engineering strain) in the compressive direction under stroke-control, and were subsequently fatigued to failure under fully-reversed strain-control. Experimental results are compared with estimates of remaining fatigue lives (after prestraining) using three life prediction approaches: (1) the Linear Damage Rule; (2) the Linear Strain and Life Fraction Rule; and (3) the nonlinear Damage Curve Approach. The Smith-Watson-Topper parameter was used to estimate fatigue lives in the presence of mean stresses. Among the cumulative damage rules investigated, best remaining fatigue life predictions were obtained with the nonlinear Damage Curve Approach.

Neural network based automatic limit prediction and avoidance system and method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calise, Anthony J. (Inventor); Prasad, Jonnalagadda V. R. (Inventor); Horn, Joseph F. (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A method for performance envelope boundary cueing for a vehicle control system comprises the steps of formulating a prediction system for a neural network and training the neural network to predict values of limited parameters as a function of current control positions and current vehicle operating conditions. The method further comprises the steps of applying the neural network to the control system of the vehicle, where the vehicle has capability for measuring current control positions and current vehicle operating conditions. The neural network generates a map of current control positions and vehicle operating conditions versus the limited parameters in a pre-determined vehicle operating condition. The method estimates critical control deflections from the current control positions required to drive the vehicle to a performance envelope boundary. Finally, the method comprises the steps of communicating the critical control deflection to the vehicle control system; and driving the vehicle control system to provide a tactile cue to an operator of the vehicle as the control positions approach the critical control deflections.

Determining Functional Reliability of Pyrotechnic Mechanical Devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bement, Laurence J.; Multhaup, Herbert A.

1997-01-01

This paper describes a new approach for evaluating mechanical performance and predicting the mechanical functional reliability of pyrotechnic devices. Not included are other possible failure modes, such as the initiation of the pyrotechnic energy source. The requirement of hundreds or thousands of consecutive, successful tests on identical components for reliability predictions, using the generally accepted go/no-go statistical approach routinely ignores physics of failure. The approach described in this paper begins with measuring, understanding and controlling mechanical performance variables. Then, the energy required to accomplish the function is compared to that delivered by the pyrotechnic energy source to determine mechanical functional margin. Finally, the data collected in establishing functional margin is analyzed to predict mechanical functional reliability, using small-sample statistics. A careful application of this approach can provide considerable cost improvements and understanding over that of go/no-go statistics. Performance and the effects of variables can be defined, and reliability predictions can be made by evaluating 20 or fewer units. The application of this approach to a pin puller used on a successful NASA mission is provided as an example.

Adaptive envelope protection methods for aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unnikrishnan, Suraj

Carefree handling refers to the ability of a pilot to operate an aircraft without the need to continuously monitor aircraft operating limits. At the heart of all carefree handling or maneuvering systems, also referred to as envelope protection systems, are algorithms and methods for predicting future limit violations. Recently, envelope protection methods that have gained more acceptance, translate limit proximity information to its equivalent in the control channel. Envelope protection algorithms either use very small prediction horizon or are static methods with no capability to adapt to changes in system configurations. Adaptive approaches maximizing prediction horizon such as dynamic trim, are only applicable to steady-state-response critical limit parameters. In this thesis, a new adaptive envelope protection method is developed that is applicable to steady-state and transient response critical limit parameters. The approach is based upon devising the most aggressive optimal control profile to the limit boundary and using it to compute control limits. Pilot-in-the-loop evaluations of the proposed approach are conducted at the Georgia Tech Carefree Maneuver lab for transient longitudinal hub moment limit protection. Carefree maneuvering is the dual of carefree handling in the realm of autonomous Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Designing a flight control system to fully and effectively utilize the operational flight envelope is very difficult. With the increasing role and demands for extreme maneuverability there is a need for developing envelope protection methods for autonomous UAVs. In this thesis, a full-authority automatic envelope protection method is proposed for limit protection in UAVs. The approach uses adaptive estimate of limit parameter dynamics and finite-time horizon predictions to detect impending limit boundary violations. Limit violations are prevented by treating the limit boundary as an obstacle and by correcting nominal control/command inputs to track a limit parameter safe-response profile near the limit boundary. The method is evaluated using software-in-the-loop and flight evaluations on the Georgia Tech unmanned rotorcraft platform---GTMax. The thesis also develops and evaluates an extension for calculating control margins based on restricting limit parameter response aggressiveness near the limit boundary.

An analytical approach for predicting pilot induced oscillations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, R. A.

1981-01-01

The optimal control model (OCM) of the human pilot is applied to the study of aircraft handling qualities. Attention is focused primarily on longitudinal tasks. The modeling technique differs from previous applications of the OCM in that considerable effort is expended in simplifying the pilot/vehicle analysis. After briefly reviewing the OCM, a technique for modeling the pilot controlling higher order systems is introduced. Following this, a simple criterion or determining the susceptability of an aircraft to pilot induced oscillations (PIO) is formulated. Finally, a model-based metric for pilot rating prediction is discussed. The resulting modeling procedure provides a relatively simple, yet unified approach to the study of a variety of handling qualities problems.

Departments of Defense and Agriculture Team Up to Develop New Insecticides for Mosquito Control

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

archives of insecticide data by quantita- tive structure-activity relationship ( QSAR ) modeling to predict and synthesize new insecticides. This...blood- sucking arthropods. The key thrust of IIBBL’s approach involves QSAR -based modeling of fast-acting pyrethroid insecticides to predict and

Control of Aerodynamic Flows. Delivery Order 0051: Transition Prediction Method Review Summary for the Rapid Assessment Tool for Transition Prediction (RATTraP)

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-15

61 9.2.7 Reynolds Number Effects...............................................................................................62 9.2.8...appropriate for control, and is therefore very useful for airfoil and wing design. However, Arnal (1994) and Schrauf (1994) review the different approaches...evaluation of new airfoil shapes for wings, even in 3- D, in a comparative sense. In summary, carefully used LST is the method of choice for

Predictive Utility of Personality Disorder in Depression: Comparison of Outcomes and Taxonomic Approach.

PubMed

Newton-Howes, Giles; Mulder, Roger; Ellis, Pete M; Boden, Joseph M; Joyce, Peter

2017-09-19

There is debate around the best model for diagnosing personality disorder, both in terms of its relationship to the empirical data and clinical utility. Four randomized controlled trials examining various treatments for depression were analyzed at an individual patient level. Three different approaches to the diagnosis of personality disorder were analyzed in these patients. A total of 578 depressed patients were included in the analysis. Personality disorder, however measured, was of little predictive utility in the short term but added significantly to predictive modelling of medium-term outcomes, accounting for more than twice as much of the variance in social functioning outcome as depression psychopathology. Personality disorder assessment is of predictive utility with longer timeframes and when considering social outcomes as opposed to symptom counts. This utility is sufficiently great that there appears to be value in assessing personality; however, no particular approach outperforms any other.

[Valences of self-evaluation and approach-avoidance tendencies: research based on regulatory focus theory].

PubMed

Ozaki, Yuka; Karasawa, Kaori

2011-12-01

Four studies were conducted to investigate the relationship between valences of self-evaluation and approach-avoidance tendencies. Based on regulatory focus theory (Higgins, 1997, 1998), we predicted that positivity of self-evaluation is related to the tendency to approach gains, while negativity of self-evaluation is related to the tendency to avoid losses. In Study 1, a self-report measure of behavioral tendencies for approaching gains and avoiding losses was developed. In Studies 2 to 4, correlations between these approach/avoidance tendencies and various kinds of self-evaluations were examined. Overall, the authors' predictions were supported. The results suggest that the self-evaluation system and the self-regulation system work in close cooperation with each other in controlling human behavior.

Predictive capacity of a non-radioisotopic local lymph node assay using flow cytometry, LLNA:BrdU-FCM: Comparison of a cutoff approach and inferential statistics.

PubMed

Kim, Da-Eun; Yang, Hyeri; Jang, Won-Hee; Jung, Kyoung-Mi; Park, Miyoung; Choi, Jin Kyu; Jung, Mi-Sook; Jeon, Eun-Young; Heo, Yong; Yeo, Kyung-Wook; Jo, Ji-Hoon; Park, Jung Eun; Sohn, Soo Jung; Kim, Tae Sung; Ahn, Il Young; Jeong, Tae-Cheon; Lim, Kyung-Min; Bae, SeungJin

2016-01-01

In order for a novel test method to be applied for regulatory purposes, its reliability and relevance, i.e., reproducibility and predictive capacity, must be demonstrated. Here, we examine the predictive capacity of a novel non-radioisotopic local lymph node assay, LLNA:BrdU-FCM (5-bromo-2'-deoxyuridine-flow cytometry), with a cutoff approach and inferential statistics as a prediction model. 22 reference substances in OECD TG429 were tested with a concurrent positive control, hexylcinnamaldehyde 25%(PC), and the stimulation index (SI) representing the fold increase in lymph node cells over the vehicle control was obtained. The optimal cutoff SI (2.7≤cutoff <3.5), with respect to predictive capacity, was obtained by a receiver operating characteristic curve, which produced 90.9% accuracy for the 22 substances. To address the inter-test variability in responsiveness, SI values standardized with PC were employed to obtain the optimal percentage cutoff (42.6≤cutoff <57.3% of PC), which produced 86.4% accuracy. A test substance may be diagnosed as a sensitizer if a statistically significant increase in SI is elicited. The parametric one-sided t-test and non-parametric Wilcoxon rank-sum test produced 77.3% accuracy. Similarly, a test substance could be defined as a sensitizer if the SI means of the vehicle control, and of the low, middle, and high concentrations were statistically significantly different, which was tested using ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis, with post hoc analysis, Dunnett, or DSCF (Dwass-Steel-Critchlow-Fligner), respectively, depending on the equal variance test, producing 81.8% accuracy. The absolute SI-based cutoff approach produced the best predictive capacity, however the discordant decisions between prediction models need to be examined further. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MEASUREMENT AND PREDICTION OF THE RESISTIVITY OF ASH/SORBENT MIXTURES PRODUCED BY SULFUR OXIDE CONTROL PROCESSES

EPA Science Inventory

The report describes the development of (1) a modified procedure for obtaining consistent and reproducible laboratory resistivity values for mixtures of coal fly ash and partially spent sorbent, and (2) an approach for predicting resistivity based on the chemical composition of t...

How Homes Influence Schools: Early Parenting Predicts African American Children's Classroom Social-Emotional Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Claire E.; Rimm-Kaufman, Sara E.

2014-01-01

Data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Cohort were used to examine the extent to which early parenting predicted African American children's kindergarten social-emotional functioning. Teachers rated children's classroom social-emotional functioning in four areas (i.e., approaches to learning, self-control, interpersonal…

Cell Fate Reprogramming by Control of Intracellular Network Dynamics

PubMed Central

Zañudo, Jorge G. T.; Albert, Réka

2015-01-01

Identifying control strategies for biological networks is paramount for practical applications that involve reprogramming a cell’s fate, such as disease therapeutics and stem cell reprogramming. Here we develop a novel network control framework that integrates the structural and functional information available for intracellular networks to predict control targets. Formulated in a logical dynamic scheme, our approach drives any initial state to the target state with 100% effectiveness and needs to be applied only transiently for the network to reach and stay in the desired state. We illustrate our method’s potential to find intervention targets for cancer treatment and cell differentiation by applying it to a leukemia signaling network and to the network controlling the differentiation of helper T cells. We find that the predicted control targets are effective in a broad dynamic framework. Moreover, several of the predicted interventions are supported by experiments. PMID:25849586

Prediction-based sampled-data H∞ controller design for attitude stabilisation of a rigid spacecraft with disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Baolong; Zhang, Zhiping; Zhou, Ding; Ma, Jie; Li, Shunli

2017-08-01

This paper investigates the H∞ control problem of the attitude stabilisation of a rigid spacecraft with external disturbances using prediction-based sampled-data control strategy. Aiming to achieve a 'virtual' closed-loop system, a type of parameterised sampled-data controller is designed by introducing a prediction mechanism. The resultant closed-loop system is equivalent to a hybrid system featured by a continuous-time and an impulsive differential system. By using a time-varying Lyapunov functional, a generalised bounded real lemma (GBRL) is first established for a kind of impulsive differential system. Based on this GBRL and Lyapunov functional approach, a sufficient condition is derived to guarantee the closed-loop system to be asymptotically stable and to achieve a prescribed H∞ performance. In addition, the controller parameter tuning is cast into a convex optimisation problem. Simulation and comparative results are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the developed control scheme.

Optimal strategy analysis based on robust predictive control for inventory system with random demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saputra, Aditya; Widowati, Sutrisno

2017-12-01

In this paper, the optimal strategy for a single product single supplier inventory system with random demand is analyzed by using robust predictive control with additive random parameter. We formulate the dynamical system of this system as a linear state space with additive random parameter. To determine and analyze the optimal strategy for the given inventory system, we use robust predictive control approach which gives the optimal strategy i.e. the optimal product volume that should be purchased from the supplier for each time period so that the expected cost is minimal. A numerical simulation is performed with some generated random inventory data. We simulate in MATLAB software where the inventory level must be controlled as close as possible to a set point decided by us. From the results, robust predictive control model provides the optimal strategy i.e. the optimal product volume that should be purchased and the inventory level was followed the given set point.

Multi-objective optimization for model predictive control.

PubMed

Wojsznis, Willy; Mehta, Ashish; Wojsznis, Peter; Thiele, Dirk; Blevins, Terry

2007-06-01

This paper presents a technique of multi-objective optimization for Model Predictive Control (MPC) where the optimization has three levels of the objective function, in order of priority: handling constraints, maximizing economics, and maintaining control. The greatest weights are assigned dynamically to control or constraint variables that are predicted to be out of their limits. The weights assigned for economics have to out-weigh those assigned for control objectives. Control variables (CV) can be controlled at fixed targets or within one- or two-sided ranges around the targets. Manipulated Variables (MV) can have assigned targets too, which may be predefined values or current actual values. This MV functionality is extremely useful when economic objectives are not defined for some or all the MVs. To achieve this complex operation, handle process outputs predicted to go out of limits, and have a guaranteed solution for any condition, the technique makes use of the priority structure, penalties on slack variables, and redefinition of the constraint and control model. An engineering implementation of this approach is shown in the MPC embedded in an industrial control system. The optimization and control of a distillation column, the standard Shell heavy oil fractionator (HOF) problem, is adequately achieved with this MPC.

Efficient multi-scenario Model Predictive Control for water resources management with ensemble streamflow forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Xin; Negenborn, Rudy R.; van Overloop, Peter-Jules; María Maestre, José; Sadowska, Anna; van de Giesen, Nick

2017-11-01

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is one of the most advanced real-time control techniques that has been widely applied to Water Resources Management (WRM). MPC can manage the water system in a holistic manner and has a flexible structure to incorporate specific elements, such as setpoints and constraints. Therefore, MPC has shown its versatile performance in many branches of WRM. Nonetheless, with the in-depth understanding of stochastic hydrology in recent studies, MPC also faces the challenge of how to cope with hydrological uncertainty in its decision-making process. A possible way to embed the uncertainty is to generate an Ensemble Forecast (EF) of hydrological variables, rather than a deterministic one. The combination of MPC and EF results in a more comprehensive approach: Multi-scenario MPC (MS-MPC). In this study, we will first assess the model performance of MS-MPC, considering an ensemble streamflow forecast. Noticeably, the computational inefficiency may be a critical obstacle that hinders applicability of MS-MPC. In fact, with more scenarios taken into account, the computational burden of solving an optimization problem in MS-MPC accordingly increases. To deal with this challenge, we propose the Adaptive Control Resolution (ACR) approach as a computationally efficient scheme to practically reduce the number of control variables in MS-MPC. In brief, the ACR approach uses a mixed-resolution control time step from the near future to the distant future. The ACR-MPC approach is tested on a real-world case study: an integrated flood control and navigation problem in the North Sea Canal of the Netherlands. Such an approach reduces the computation time by 18% and up in our case study. At the same time, the model performance of ACR-MPC remains close to that of conventional MPC.

Cycle-time determination and process control of sequencing batch membrane bioreactors.

PubMed

Krampe, J

2013-01-01

In this paper a method to determine the cycle time for sequencing batch membrane bioreactors (SBMBRs) is introduced. One of the advantages of SBMBRs is the simplicity of adapting them to varying wastewater composition. The benefit of this flexibility can only be fully utilised if the cycle times are optimised for the specific inlet load conditions. This requires either proactive and ongoing operator adjustment or active predictive instrument-based control. Determination of the cycle times for conventional sequencing batch reactor (SBR) plants is usually based on experience. Due to the higher mixed liquor suspended solids concentrations in SBMBRs and the limited experience with their application, a new approach to calculate the cycle time had to be developed. Based on results from a semi-technical pilot plant, the paper presents an approach for calculating the cycle time in relation to the influent concentration according to the Activated Sludge Model No. 1 and the German HSG (Hochschulgruppe) Approach. The approach presented in this paper considers the increased solid contents in the reactor and the resultant shortened reaction times. This allows for an exact calculation of the nitrification and denitrification cycles with a tolerance of only a few minutes. Ultimately the same approach can be used for a predictive control strategy and for conventional SBR plants.

Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions.

PubMed

Fox, Naomi J; Marion, Glenn; Davidson, Ross S; White, Piran C L; Hutchings, Michael R

2012-03-06

Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed.

A novel auto-tuning PID control mechanism for nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Cetin, Meric; Iplikci, Serdar

2015-09-01

In this paper, a novel Runge-Kutta (RK) discretization-based model-predictive auto-tuning proportional-integral-derivative controller (RK-PID) is introduced for the control of continuous-time nonlinear systems. The parameters of the PID controller are tuned using RK model of the system through prediction error-square minimization where the predicted information of tracking error provides an enhanced tuning of the parameters. Based on the model-predictive control (MPC) approach, the proposed mechanism provides necessary PID parameter adaptations while generating additive correction terms to assist the initially inadequate PID controller. Efficiency of the proposed mechanism has been tested on two experimental real-time systems: an unstable single-input single-output (SISO) nonlinear magnetic-levitation system and a nonlinear multi-input multi-output (MIMO) liquid-level system. RK-PID has been compared to standard PID, standard nonlinear MPC (NMPC), RK-MPC and conventional sliding-mode control (SMC) methods in terms of control performance, robustness, computational complexity and design issue. The proposed mechanism exhibits acceptable tuning and control performance with very small steady-state tracking errors, and provides very short settling time for parameter convergence. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Prediction of the Gas Utilization Ratio Based on TS Fuzzy Neural Network and Particle Swarm Optimization

PubMed Central

Jiang, Haihe; Yin, Yixin; Xiao, Wendong; Zhao, Baoyong

2018-01-01

Gas utilization ratio (GUR) is an important indicator that is used to evaluate the energy consumption of blast furnaces (BFs). Currently, the existing methods cannot predict the GUR accurately. In this paper, we present a novel data-driven model for predicting the GUR. The proposed approach utilized both the TS fuzzy neural network (TS-FNN) and the particle swarm algorithm (PSO) to predict the GUR. The particle swarm algorithm (PSO) is applied to optimize the parameters of the TS-FNN in order to decrease the error caused by the inaccurate initial parameter. This paper also applied the box graph (Box-plot) method to eliminate the abnormal value of the raw data during the data preprocessing. This method can deal with the data which does not obey the normal distribution which is caused by the complex industrial environments. The prediction results demonstrate that the optimization model based on PSO and the TS-FNN approach achieves higher prediction accuracy compared with the TS-FNN model and SVM model and the proposed approach can accurately predict the GUR of the blast furnace, providing an effective way for the on-line blast furnace distribution control. PMID:29461469

The Prediction of the Gas Utilization Ratio based on TS Fuzzy Neural Network and Particle Swarm Optimization.

PubMed

Zhang, Sen; Jiang, Haihe; Yin, Yixin; Xiao, Wendong; Zhao, Baoyong

2018-02-20

Gas utilization ratio (GUR) is an important indicator that is used to evaluate the energy consumption of blast furnaces (BFs). Currently, the existing methods cannot predict the GUR accurately. In this paper, we present a novel data-driven model for predicting the GUR. The proposed approach utilized both the TS fuzzy neural network (TS-FNN) and the particle swarm algorithm (PSO) to predict the GUR. The particle swarm algorithm (PSO) is applied to optimize the parameters of the TS-FNN in order to decrease the error caused by the inaccurate initial parameter. This paper also applied the box graph (Box-plot) method to eliminate the abnormal value of the raw data during the data preprocessing. This method can deal with the data which does not obey the normal distribution which is caused by the complex industrial environments. The prediction results demonstrate that the optimization model based on PSO and the TS-FNN approach achieves higher prediction accuracy compared with the TS-FNN model and SVM model and the proposed approach can accurately predict the GUR of the blast furnace, providing an effective way for the on-line blast furnace distribution control.

A comparative study of clonal selection algorithm for effluent removal forecasting in septic sludge treatment plant.

PubMed

Chun, Ting Sie; Malek, M A; Ismail, Amelia Ritahani

2015-01-01

The development of effluent removal prediction is crucial in providing a planning tool necessary for the future development and the construction of a septic sludge treatment plant (SSTP), especially in the developing countries. In order to investigate the expected functionality of the required standard, the prediction of the effluent quality, namely biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand and total suspended solid of an SSTP was modelled using an artificial intelligence approach. In this paper, we adopt the clonal selection algorithm (CSA) to set up a prediction model, with a well-established method - namely the least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM) as a baseline model. The test results of the case study showed that the prediction of the CSA-based SSTP model worked well and provided model performance as satisfactory as the LS-SVM model. The CSA approach shows that fewer control and training parameters are required for model simulation as compared with the LS-SVM approach. The ability of a CSA approach in resolving limited data samples, non-linear sample function and multidimensional pattern recognition makes it a powerful tool in modelling the prediction of effluent removals in an SSTP.

Least-Squares Support Vector Machine Approach to Viral Replication Origin Prediction

PubMed Central

Cruz-Cano, Raul; Chew, David S.H.; Kwok-Pui, Choi; Ming-Ying, Leung

2010-01-01

Replication of their DNA genomes is a central step in the reproduction of many viruses. Procedures to find replication origins, which are initiation sites of the DNA replication process, are therefore of great importance for controlling the growth and spread of such viruses. Existing computational methods for viral replication origin prediction have mostly been tested within the family of herpesviruses. This paper proposes a new approach by least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs) and tests its performance not only on the herpes family but also on a collection of caudoviruses coming from three viral families under the order of caudovirales. The LS-SVM approach provides sensitivities and positive predictive values superior or comparable to those given by the previous methods. When suitably combined with previous methods, the LS-SVM approach further improves the prediction accuracy for the herpesvirus replication origins. Furthermore, by recursive feature elimination, the LS-SVM has also helped find the most significant features of the data sets. The results suggest that the LS-SVMs will be a highly useful addition to the set of computational tools for viral replication origin prediction and illustrate the value of optimization-based computing techniques in biomedical applications. PMID:20729987

Least-Squares Support Vector Machine Approach to Viral Replication Origin Prediction.

PubMed

Cruz-Cano, Raul; Chew, David S H; Kwok-Pui, Choi; Ming-Ying, Leung

2010-06-01

Replication of their DNA genomes is a central step in the reproduction of many viruses. Procedures to find replication origins, which are initiation sites of the DNA replication process, are therefore of great importance for controlling the growth and spread of such viruses. Existing computational methods for viral replication origin prediction have mostly been tested within the family of herpesviruses. This paper proposes a new approach by least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs) and tests its performance not only on the herpes family but also on a collection of caudoviruses coming from three viral families under the order of caudovirales. The LS-SVM approach provides sensitivities and positive predictive values superior or comparable to those given by the previous methods. When suitably combined with previous methods, the LS-SVM approach further improves the prediction accuracy for the herpesvirus replication origins. Furthermore, by recursive feature elimination, the LS-SVM has also helped find the most significant features of the data sets. The results suggest that the LS-SVMs will be a highly useful addition to the set of computational tools for viral replication origin prediction and illustrate the value of optimization-based computing techniques in biomedical applications.

Estimation of excitation forces for wave energy converters control using pressure measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelkhalik, O.; Zou, S.; Robinett, R.; Bacelli, G.; Wilson, D.

2017-08-01

Most control algorithms of wave energy converters require prediction of wave elevation or excitation force for a short future horizon, to compute the control in an optimal sense. This paper presents an approach that requires the estimation of the excitation force and its derivatives at present time with no need for prediction. An extended Kalman filter is implemented to estimate the excitation force. The measurements in this approach are selected to be the pressures at discrete points on the buoy surface, in addition to the buoy heave position. The pressures on the buoy surface are more directly related to the excitation force on the buoy as opposed to wave elevation in front of the buoy. These pressure measurements are also more accurate and easier to obtain. A singular arc control is implemented to compute the steady-state control using the estimated excitation force. The estimated excitation force is expressed in the Laplace domain and substituted in the control, before the latter is transformed to the time domain. Numerical simulations are presented for a Bretschneider wave case study.

Decentralized robust nonlinear model predictive controller for unmanned aerial systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia Garreton, Gonzalo A.

The nonlinear and unsteady nature of aircraft aerodynamics together with limited practical range of controls and state variables make the use of the linear control theory inadequate especially in the presence of external disturbances, such as wind. In the classical approach, aircraft are controlled by multiple inner and outer loops, designed separately and sequentially. For unmanned aerial systems in particular, control technology must evolve to a point where autonomy is extended to the entire mission flight envelope. This requires advanced controllers that have sufficient robustness, track complex trajectories, and use all the vehicles control capabilities at higher levels of accuracy. In this work, a robust nonlinear model predictive controller is designed to command and control an unmanned aerial system to track complex tight trajectories in the presence of internal and external perturbance. The Flight System developed in this work achieves the above performance by using: 1. A nonlinear guidance algorithm that enables the vehicle to follow an arbitrary trajectory shaped by moving points; 2. A formulation that embeds the guidance logic and trajectory information in the aircraft model, avoiding cross coupling and control degradation; 3. An artificial neural network, designed to adaptively estimate and provide aerodynamic and propulsive forces in real-time; and 4. A mixed sensitivity approach that enhances the robustness for a nonlinear model predictive controller overcoming the effect of un-modeled dynamics, external disturbances such as wind, and measurement additive perturbations, such as noise and biases. These elements have been integrated and tested in simulation and with previously stored flight test data and shown to be feasible.

Computing the sensitivity of drag and lift in flow past a circular cylinder: Time-stepping versus self-consistent analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meliga, Philippe

2017-07-01

We provide in-depth scrutiny of two methods making use of adjoint-based gradients to compute the sensitivity of drag in the two-dimensional, periodic flow past a circular cylinder (Re≲189 ): first, the time-stepping analysis used in Meliga et al. [Phys. Fluids 26, 104101 (2014), 10.1063/1.4896941] that relies on classical Navier-Stokes modeling and determines the sensitivity to any generic control force from time-dependent adjoint equations marched backwards in time; and, second, a self-consistent approach building on the model of Mantič-Lugo et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 113, 084501 (2014), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.113.084501] to compute semilinear approximations of the sensitivity to the mean and fluctuating components of the force. Both approaches are applied to open-loop control by a small secondary cylinder and allow identifying the sensitive regions without knowledge of the controlled states. The theoretical predictions obtained by time-stepping analysis reproduce well the results obtained by direct numerical simulation of the two-cylinder system. So do the predictions obtained by self-consistent analysis, which corroborates the relevance of the approach as a guideline for efficient and systematic control design in the attempt to reduce drag, even though the Reynolds number is not close to the instability threshold and the oscillation amplitude is not small. This is because, unlike simpler approaches relying on linear stability analysis to predict the main features of the flow unsteadiness, the semilinear framework encompasses rigorously the effect of the control on the mean flow, as well as on the finite-amplitude fluctuation that feeds back nonlinearly onto the mean flow via the formation of Reynolds stresses. Such results are especially promising as the self-consistent approach determines the sensitivity from time-independent equations that can be solved iteratively, which makes it generally less computationally demanding. We ultimately discuss the extent to which relevant information can be gained from a hybrid modeling computing self-consistent sensitivities from the postprocessing of DNS data. Application to alternative control objectives such as increasing the lift and alleviating the fluctuating drag and lift is also discussed.

Testing a hydraulic trait based model of stomatal control: results from a controlled drought experiment on aspen (Populus tremuloides, Michx.) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa, Douglas)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, D. M.; Venturas, M.; Sperry, J.; Wang, Y.; Anderegg, W.

2017-12-01

Modeling approaches for tree stomatal control often rely on empirical fitting to provide accurate estimates of whole tree transpiration (E) and assimilation (A), which are limited in their predictive power by the data envelope used to calibrate model parameters. Optimization based models hold promise as a means to predict stomatal behavior under novel climate conditions. We designed an experiment to test a hydraulic trait based optimization model, which predicts stomatal conductance from a gain/risk approach. Optimal stomatal conductance is expected to maximize the potential carbon gain by photosynthesis, and minimize the risk to hydraulic transport imposed by cavitation. The modeled risk to the hydraulic network is assessed from cavitation vulnerability curves, a commonly measured physiological trait in woody plant species. Over a growing season garden grown plots of aspen (Populus tremuloides, Michx.) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa, Douglas) were subjected to three distinct drought treatments (moderate, severe, severe with rehydration) relative to a control plot to test model predictions. Model outputs of predicted E, A, and xylem pressure can be directly compared to both continuous data (whole tree sapflux, soil moisture) and point measurements (leaf level E, A, xylem pressure). The model also predicts levels of whole tree hydraulic impairment expected to increase mortality risk. This threshold is used to estimate survivorship in the drought treatment plots. The model can be run at two scales, either entirely from climate (meteorological inputs, irrigation) or using the physiological measurements as a starting point. These data will be used to study model performance and utility, and aid in developing the model for larger scale applications.

Real time simulation of nonlinear generalized predictive control for wind energy conversion system with nonlinear observer.

PubMed

Ouari, Kamel; Rekioua, Toufik; Ouhrouche, Mohand

2014-01-01

In order to make a wind power generation truly cost-effective and reliable, an advanced control techniques must be used. In this paper, we develop a new control strategy, using nonlinear generalized predictive control (NGPC) approach, for DFIG-based wind turbine. The proposed control law is based on two points: NGPC-based torque-current control loop generating the rotor reference voltage and NGPC-based speed control loop that provides the torque reference. In order to enhance the robustness of the controller, a disturbance observer is designed to estimate the aerodynamic torque which is considered as an unknown perturbation. Finally, a real-time simulation is carried out to illustrate the performance of the proposed controller. Copyright © 2013 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exhaled Breath Markers for Nonimaging and Noninvasive Measures for Detection of Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Broza, Yoav Y; Har-Shai, Lior; Jeries, Raneen; Cancilla, John C; Glass-Marmor, Lea; Lejbkowicz, Izabella; Torrecilla, José S; Yao, Xuelin; Feng, Xinliang; Narita, Akimitsu; Müllen, Klaus; Miller, Ariel; Haick, Hossam

2017-11-15

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common chronic neurological disease affecting young adults. MS diagnosis is based on clinical characteristics and confirmed by examination of the cerebrospinal fluids (CSF) or by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain or spinal cord or both. However, neither of the current diagnostic procedures are adequate as a routine tool to determine disease state. Thus, diagnostic biomarkers are needed. In the current study, a novel approach that could meet these expectations is presented. The approach is based on noninvasive analysis of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in breath. Exhaled breath was collected from 204 participants, 146 MS and 58 healthy control individuals. Analysis was performed by gas-chromatography mass-spectrometry (GC-MS) and nanomaterial-based sensor array. Predictive models were derived from the sensors, using artificial neural networks (ANNs). GC-MS analysis revealed significant differences in VOC abundance between MS patients and controls. Sensor data analysis on training sets was able to discriminate in binary comparisons between MS patients and controls with accuracies up to 90%. Blinded sets showed 95% positive predictive value (PPV) between MS-remission and control, 100% sensitivity with 100% negative predictive value (NPV) between MS not-treated (NT) and control, and 86% NPV between relapse and control. Possible links between VOC biomarkers and the MS pathogenesis were established. Preliminary results suggest the applicability of a new nanotechnology-based method for MS diagnostics.

MOST: most-similar ligand based approach to target prediction.

PubMed

Huang, Tao; Mi, Hong; Lin, Cheng-Yuan; Zhao, Ling; Zhong, Linda L D; Liu, Feng-Bin; Zhang, Ge; Lu, Ai-Ping; Bian, Zhao-Xiang

2017-03-11

Many computational approaches have been used for target prediction, including machine learning, reverse docking, bioactivity spectra analysis, and chemical similarity searching. Recent studies have suggested that chemical similarity searching may be driven by the most-similar ligand. However, the extent of bioactivity of most-similar ligands has been oversimplified or even neglected in these studies, and this has impaired the prediction power. Here we propose the MOst-Similar ligand-based Target inference approach, namely MOST, which uses fingerprint similarity and explicit bioactivity of the most-similar ligands to predict targets of the query compound. Performance of MOST was evaluated by using combinations of different fingerprint schemes, machine learning methods, and bioactivity representations. In sevenfold cross-validation with a benchmark Ki dataset from CHEMBL release 19 containing 61,937 bioactivity data of 173 human targets, MOST achieved high average prediction accuracy (0.95 for pKi ≥ 5, and 0.87 for pKi ≥ 6). Morgan fingerprint was shown to be slightly better than FP2. Logistic Regression and Random Forest methods performed better than Naïve Bayes. In a temporal validation, the Ki dataset from CHEMBL19 were used to train models and predict the bioactivity of newly deposited ligands in CHEMBL20. MOST also performed well with high accuracy (0.90 for pKi ≥ 5, and 0.76 for pKi ≥ 6), when Logistic Regression and Morgan fingerprint were employed. Furthermore, the p values associated with explicit bioactivity were found be a robust index for removing false positive predictions. Implicit bioactivity did not offer this capability. Finally, p values generated with Logistic Regression, Morgan fingerprint and explicit activity were integrated with a false discovery rate (FDR) control procedure to reduce false positives in multiple-target prediction scenario, and the success of this strategy it was demonstrated with a case of fluanisone. In the case of aloe-emodin's laxative effect, MOST predicted that acetylcholinesterase was the mechanism-of-action target; in vivo studies validated this prediction. Using the MOST approach can result in highly accurate and robust target prediction. Integrated with a FDR control procedure, MOST provides a reliable framework for multiple-target inference. It has prospective applications in drug repurposing and mechanism-of-action target prediction.

Know Your Enemy: Successful Bioinformatic Approaches to Predict Functional RNA Structures in Viral RNAs.

PubMed

Lim, Chun Shen; Brown, Chris M

2017-01-01

Structured RNA elements may control virus replication, transcription and translation, and their distinct features are being exploited by novel antiviral strategies. Viral RNA elements continue to be discovered using combinations of experimental and computational analyses. However, the wealth of sequence data, notably from deep viral RNA sequencing, viromes, and metagenomes, necessitates computational approaches being used as an essential discovery tool. In this review, we describe practical approaches being used to discover functional RNA elements in viral genomes. In addition to success stories in new and emerging viruses, these approaches have revealed some surprising new features of well-studied viruses e.g., human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus, influenza, and dengue viruses. Some notable discoveries were facilitated by new comparative analyses of diverse viral genome alignments. Importantly, comparative approaches for finding RNA elements embedded in coding and non-coding regions differ. With the exponential growth of computer power we have progressed from stem-loop prediction on single sequences to cutting edge 3D prediction, and from command line to user friendly web interfaces. Despite these advances, many powerful, user friendly prediction tools and resources are underutilized by the virology community.

Know Your Enemy: Successful Bioinformatic Approaches to Predict Functional RNA Structures in Viral RNAs

PubMed Central

Lim, Chun Shen; Brown, Chris M.

2018-01-01

Structured RNA elements may control virus replication, transcription and translation, and their distinct features are being exploited by novel antiviral strategies. Viral RNA elements continue to be discovered using combinations of experimental and computational analyses. However, the wealth of sequence data, notably from deep viral RNA sequencing, viromes, and metagenomes, necessitates computational approaches being used as an essential discovery tool. In this review, we describe practical approaches being used to discover functional RNA elements in viral genomes. In addition to success stories in new and emerging viruses, these approaches have revealed some surprising new features of well-studied viruses e.g., human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus, influenza, and dengue viruses. Some notable discoveries were facilitated by new comparative analyses of diverse viral genome alignments. Importantly, comparative approaches for finding RNA elements embedded in coding and non-coding regions differ. With the exponential growth of computer power we have progressed from stem-loop prediction on single sequences to cutting edge 3D prediction, and from command line to user friendly web interfaces. Despite these advances, many powerful, user friendly prediction tools and resources are underutilized by the virology community. PMID:29354101

Validity of the MicroDYN Approach: Complex Problem Solving Predicts School Grades beyond Working Memory Capacity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schweizer, Fabian; Wustenberg, Sascha; Greiff, Samuel

2013-01-01

This study examines the validity of the complex problem solving (CPS) test MicroDYN by investigating a) the relation between its dimensions--rule identification (exploration strategy), rule knowledge (acquired knowledge), rule application (control performance)--and working memory capacity (WMC), and b) whether CPS predicts school grades in…

A Predictive Approach to Network Reverse-Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiggins, Chris

2005-03-01

A central challenge of systems biology is the ``reverse engineering" of transcriptional networks: inferring which genes exert regulatory control over which other genes. Attempting such inference at the genomic scale has only recently become feasible, via data-intensive biological innovations such as DNA microrrays (``DNA chips") and the sequencing of whole genomes. In this talk we present a predictive approach to network reverse-engineering, in which we integrate DNA chip data and sequence data to build a model of the transcriptional network of the yeast S. cerevisiae capable of predicting the response of genes in unseen experiments. The technique can also be used to extract ``motifs,'' sequence elements which act as binding sites for regulatory proteins. We validate by a number of approaches and present comparison of theoretical prediction vs. experimental data, along with biological interpretations of the resulting model. En route, we will illustrate some basic notions in statistical learning theory (fitting vs. over-fitting; cross- validation; assessing statistical significance), highlighting ways in which physicists can make a unique contribution in data- driven approaches to reverse engineering.

Optimal Battery Utilization Over Lifetime for Parallel Hybrid Electric Vehicle to Maximize Fuel Economy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patil, Chinmaya; Naghshtabrizi, Payam; Verma, Rajeev

This paper presents a control strategy to maximize fuel economy of a parallel hybrid electric vehicle over a target life of the battery. Many approaches to maximizing fuel economy of parallel hybrid electric vehicle do not consider the effect of control strategy on the life of the battery. This leads to an oversized and underutilized battery. There is a trade-off between how aggressively to use and 'consume' the battery versus to use the engine and consume fuel. The proposed approach addresses this trade-off by exploiting the differences in the fast dynamics of vehicle power management and slow dynamics of batterymore » aging. The control strategy is separated into two parts, (1) Predictive Battery Management (PBM), and (2) Predictive Power Management (PPM). PBM is the higher level control with slow update rate, e.g. once per month, responsible for generating optimal set points for PPM. The considered set points in this paper are the battery power limits and State Of Charge (SOC). The problem of finding the optimal set points over the target battery life that minimize engine fuel consumption is solved using dynamic programming. PPM is the lower level control with high update rate, e.g. a second, responsible for generating the optimal HEV energy management controls and is implemented using model predictive control approach. The PPM objective is to find the engine and battery power commands to achieve the best fuel economy given the battery power and SOC constraints imposed by PBM. Simulation results with a medium duty commercial hybrid electric vehicle and the proposed two-level hierarchical control strategy show that the HEV fuel economy is maximized while meeting a specified target battery life. On the other hand, the optimal unconstrained control strategy achieves marginally higher fuel economy, but fails to meet the target battery life.« less

Predictions of Energy Savings in HVAC Systems by Lumped Models (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-14

various control devices into a simulated HVAC system. Con- trols contain a setpoint of 26.7oC. The adjustable damper, variable chiller work input, and variable fanspeed contain values of αP of -1.0, 0.1, and 1.0, respectively. 25 ...Villanova, PA 19085 bCode 985, Naval System Warfare Center, Carderock Division, Philadelphia, PA 19112 Abstract An approach to optimizing the energy...suggest an order of mag- nitude greater energy savings using a variable chiller power control approach compared to control damper and variable-drive

Predictor symbology in computer-generated pictorial displays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grunwald, A. J.

1981-01-01

The display under investigation, is a tunnel display for the four-dimensional commercial aircraft approach-to-landing under instrument flight rules. It is investigated whether more complex predictive information such as a three-dimensional perspective vehicle symbol, predicting the future vehicle position as well as future vehicle attitude angles, contributes to a better system response, and suitable predictor laws for the predictor motions, are formulated. Methods for utilizing the predictor symbol in controlling the forward velocity of the aircraft in four-dimensional approaches, are investigated. The simulator tests show, that the complex perspective vehicle symbol yields improved damping in the lateral response as compared to a flat two-dimensional predictor cross, but yields generally larger vertical deviations. Methods of using the predictor symbol in controlling the forward velocity of the vehicle are shown to be effective. The tunnel display with superimposed perspective vehicle symbol yields very satisfactory results and pilot acceptance in the lateral control but is found to be unsatisfactory in the vertical control, as a result of too large vertical path-angle deviations.

Inlet Flow Control and Prediction Technologies for Embedded Propulsion Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McMillan, Michelle L.; Gissen, Abe; Vukasinovic, Bojan; Lakebrink, Matthew T.; Glezer, Ari; Mani, Mori; Mace, James

2010-01-01

Fail-safe inlet flow control may enable high-speed cruise efficiency, low noise signature, and reduced fuel-burn goals for hybrid wing-body aircraft. The objectives of this program are to develop flow control and prediction methodologies for boundary-layer ingesting (BLI) inlets used in these aircraft. This report covers the second of a three year program. The approach integrates experiments and numerical simulations. Both passive and active flow-control devices were tested in a small-scale wind tunnel. Hybrid actuation approaches, combining a passive microvane and active synthetic jet, were tested in various geometric arrangements. Detailed flow measurements were taken to provide insight into the flow physics. Results of the numerical simulations were correlated against experimental data. The sensitivity of results to grid resolution and turbulence models was examined. Aerodynamic benefits from microvanes and microramps were assessed when installed in an offset BLI inlet. Benefits were quantified in terms of recovery and distortion changes. Microvanes were more effective than microramps at improving recovery and distortion.

The influence of approach-avoidance motivational orientation on conflict adaptation.

PubMed

Hengstler, Maikel; Holland, Rob W; van Steenbergen, Henk; van Knippenberg, Ad

2014-06-01

To deal effectively with a continuously changing environment, our cognitive system adaptively regulates resource allocation. Earlier findings showed that an avoidance orientation (induced by arm extension), relative to an approach orientation (induced by arm flexion), enhanced sustained cognitive control. In avoidance conditions, performance on a cognitive control task was enhanced, as indicated by a reduced congruency effect, relative to approach conditions. Extending these findings, in the present behavioral studies we investigated dynamic adaptations in cognitive control-that is, conflict adaptation. We proposed that an avoidance state recruits more resources in response to conflicting signals, and thereby increases conflict adaptation. Conversely, in an approach state, conflict processing diminishes, which consequently weakens conflict adaptation. As predicted, approach versus avoidance arm movements affected both behavioral congruency effects and conflict adaptation: As compared to approach, avoidance movements elicited reduced congruency effects and increased conflict adaptation. These results are discussed in line with a possible underlying neuropsychological model.

Closed loop models for analyzing the effects of simulator characteristics. [digital simulation of human operators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baron, S.; Muralidharan, R.; Kleinman, D. L.

1978-01-01

The optimal control model of the human operator is used to develop closed loop models for analyzing the effects of (digital) simulator characteristics on predicted performance and/or workload. Two approaches are considered: the first utilizes a continuous approximation to the discrete simulation in conjunction with the standard optimal control model; the second involves a more exact discrete description of the simulator in a closed loop multirate simulation in which the optimal control model simulates the pilot. Both models predict that simulator characteristics can have significant effects on performance and workload.

Disease prevention versus data privacy: using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models.

PubMed

Tildesley, Michael J; Ryan, Sadie J

2012-01-01

The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock.

Disease Prevention versus Data Privacy: Using Landcover Maps to Inform Spatial Epidemic Models

PubMed Central

Tildesley, Michael J.; Ryan, Sadie J.

2012-01-01

The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock. PMID:23133352

Anticipatory Monitoring and Control of Complex Systems using a Fuzzy based Fusion of Support Vector Regressors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miltiadis Alamaniotis; Vivek Agarwal

This paper places itself in the realm of anticipatory systems and envisions monitoring and control methods being capable of making predictions over system critical parameters. Anticipatory systems allow intelligent control of complex systems by predicting their future state. In the current work, an intelligent model aimed at implementing anticipatory monitoring and control in energy industry is presented and tested. More particularly, a set of support vector regressors (SVRs) are trained using both historical and observed data. The trained SVRs are used to predict the future value of the system based on current operational system parameter. The predicted values are thenmore » inputted to a fuzzy logic based module where the values are fused to obtain a single value, i.e., final system output prediction. The methodology is tested on real turbine degradation datasets. The outcome of the approach presented in this paper highlights the superiority over single support vector regressors. In addition, it is shown that appropriate selection of fuzzy sets and fuzzy rules plays an important role in improving system performance.« less

WE-AB-207B-02: A Bayesian Network Approach for Joint Prediction of Tumor Control and Radiation Pneumonitis (RP) in Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Y; McShan, D; Matuszak, M

Purpose: NSCLC radiotherapy treatment is a trade-off between controlling the tumor while limiting radiation-induced toxicities. Here we identify hierarchical biophysical relationships that could simultaneously influence both local control (LC) and RP by using an integrated Bayesian Networks (BN) approach. Methods: We studied 79 NSCLC patients treated on prospective protocol with 56 cases of LC and 21 events of RP. Beyond dosimetric information, each patient had 193 features including 12 clinical factors, 60 circulating blood cytokines before and during radiotherapy, 62 microRNAs, and 59 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The most relevant biophysical predictors for both LC and RP were identified using amore » Markov blanket local discovery algorithm and the corresponding BN was constructed using a score-learning algorithm. The area under the free-response receiver operating characteristics (AU-FROC) was used for performance evaluation. Cross-validation was employed to guard against overfitting pitfalls. Results: A BN revealing the biophysical interrelationships jointly in terms of LC and RP was developed and evaluated. The integrated BN included two SNPs, one microRNA, one clinical factor, three pre-treatment cytokines, relative changes of two cytokines between pre and during-treatment, and gEUDs of the GTV (a=-20) and lung (a=1). On cross-validation, the AUC prediction of independent LC was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.75–0.95) and RP was 0.83 (0.73–0.92). The AU-FROC of the integrated BN to predict both LC/RP was 0.81 (0.71–0.90) based on 2000 stratified bootstrap, indicating minimal loss in joint prediction power. Conclusions: We developed a new approach for multiple outcome utility application in radiotherapy based on integrated BN techniques. The BN developed from large-scale retrospective data is able to simultaneously predict LC and RP in NSCLC treatments based on individual patient characteristics. The joint prediction is only slightly compromised compared to independent predictions. Our approach shows promise for use in clinical decision support system for personalized radiotherapy subject to multiple endpoints. These studies were supported by a grant from the NCI/NIH P01-CA59827.« less

Predictive onboard flow control for packet switching satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bobinsky, Eric A.

1992-01-01

We outline two alternate approaches to predicting the onset of congestion in a packet switching satellite, and argue that predictive, rather than reactive, flow control is necessary for the efficient operation of such a system. The first method discussed is based on standard, statistical techniques which are used to periodically calculate a probability of near-term congestion based on arrival rate statistics. If this probability exceeds a present threshold, the satellite would transmit a rate-reduction signal to all active ground stations. The second method discussed would utilize a neural network to periodically predict the occurrence of buffer overflow based on input data which would include, in addition to arrival rates, the distributions of packet lengths, source addresses, and destination addresses.

Searching for the self: an identity control theory approach to triggers of occupational exploration.

PubMed

Anderson, Katherine L; Mounts, Nina S

2012-01-01

Identity control theory researchers have found evidence for two processes of identity development (identity defense and identity change) and have theorized a third process (identity exploration). College students (N = 123) self-rated as high or low in occupational identity certainty and importance received self-discrepant feedback to induce identity disturbance, and dependent measures of identity defense, identity change, and identity exploration were obtained. As predicted, high certainty about identity standards led to identity defense, while low certainty led to identity change. Although an interaction between certainty and importance was hypothesized to predict identity exploration, results showed that the two operated independently. Low certainty predicted exploration of additional occupational areas, whereas high importance predicted exploration of self, environment, and additional occupational areas.

Preview Scheduled Model Predictive Control For Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laks, Jason H.

This research investigates the use of model predictive control (MPC) in application to wind turbine operation from start-up to cut-out. The studies conducted are focused on the design of an MPC controller for a 650˜KW, three-bladed horizontal axis turbine that is in operation at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's National Wind Technology Center outside of Golden, Colorado. This turbine is at the small end of utility scale turbines, but it provides advanced instrumentation and control capabilities, and there is a good probability that the approach developed in simulation for this thesis, will be field tested on the actual turbine. A contribution of this thesis is a method to combine the use of preview measurements with MPC while also providing regulation of turbine speed and cyclic blade loading. A common MPC technique provides integral-like control to achieve offset-free operation. At the same time in wind turbine applications, multiple studies have developed "feed-forward" controls based on applying a gain to an estimate of the wind speed changes obtained from an observer incorporating a disturbance model. These approaches are based on a technique that can be referred to as disturbance accommodating control (DAC). In this thesis, it is shown that offset-free tracking MPC is equivalent to a DAC approach when the disturbance gain is computed to satisfy a regulator equation. Although the MPC literature has recognized that this approach provides "structurally stable" disturbance rejection and tracking, this step is not typically divorced from the MPC computations repeated each sample hit. The DAC formulation is conceptually simpler, and essentially uncouples regulation considerations from MPC related issues. This thesis provides a self contained proof that the DAC formulation (an observer-controller and appropriate disturbance gain) provides structurally stable regulation.

Predicting Baseline for Analysis of Electricity Pricing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, T.; Lee, D.; Choi, J.

2016-05-03

To understand the impact of new pricing structure on residential electricity demands, we need a baseline model that captures every factor other than the new price. The standard baseline is a randomized control group, however, a good control group is hard to design. This motivates us to devlop data-driven approaches. We explored many techniques and designed a strategy, named LTAP, that could predict the hourly usage years ahead. The key challenge in this process is that the daily cycle of electricity demand peaks a few hours after the temperature reaching its peak. Existing methods rely on the lagged variables ofmore » recent past usages to enforce this daily cycle. These methods have trouble making predictions years ahead. LTAP avoids this trouble by assuming the daily usage profile is determined by temperature and other factors. In a comparison against a well-designed control group, LTAP is found to produce accurate predictions.« less

High Self-Control Predicts More Positive Emotions, Better Engagement, and Higher Achievement in School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Ronnel B.; Gaerlan, Marianne Jennifer M.

2014-01-01

The control-value theory of academic emotions has emerged as a useful framework for studying the antecedents and consequences of different emotions in school. This framework focuses on the role of control-related and value-related appraisals as proximal antecedents of emotions. In this study, we take an individual differences approach to examine…

Optimization of classification and regression analysis of four monoclonal antibodies from Raman spectra using collaborative machine learning approach.

PubMed

Le, Laetitia Minh Maï; Kégl, Balázs; Gramfort, Alexandre; Marini, Camille; Nguyen, David; Cherti, Mehdi; Tfaili, Sana; Tfayli, Ali; Baillet-Guffroy, Arlette; Prognon, Patrice; Chaminade, Pierre; Caudron, Eric

2018-07-01

The use of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) constitutes one of the most important strategies to treat patients suffering from cancers such as hematological malignancies and solid tumors. These antibodies are prescribed by the physician and prepared by hospital pharmacists. An analytical control enables the quality of the preparations to be ensured. The aim of this study was to explore the development of a rapid analytical method for quality control. The method used four mAbs (Infliximab, Bevacizumab, Rituximab and Ramucirumab) at various concentrations and was based on recording Raman data and coupling them to a traditional chemometric and machine learning approach for data analysis. Compared to conventional linear approach, prediction errors are reduced with a data-driven approach using statistical machine learning methods. In the latter, preprocessing and predictive models are jointly optimized. An additional original aspect of the work involved on submitting the problem to a collaborative data challenge platform called Rapid Analytics and Model Prototyping (RAMP). This allowed using solutions from about 300 data scientists in collaborative work. Using machine learning, the prediction of the four mAbs samples was considerably improved. The best predictive model showed a combined error of 2.4% versus 14.6% using linear approach. The concentration and classification errors were 5.8% and 0.7%, only three spectra were misclassified over the 429 spectra of the test set. This large improvement obtained with machine learning techniques was uniform for all molecules but maximal for Bevacizumab with an 88.3% reduction on combined errors (2.1% versus 17.9%). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Close Approach Prediction Analysis of the Earth Science Constellation with the Fengyun-1C Debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duncan, Matthew; Rand, David K.

2008-01-01

Routine satellite operations for the Earth Science Constellation (ESC) include collision risk assessment between members of the constellation and other orbiting space objects. Each day, close approach predictions are generated by a U.S. Department of Defense Joint Space Operations Center Orbital Safety Analyst using the high accuracy Space Object Catalog maintained by the Air Force's 1" Space Control Squadron. Prediction results and other ancillary data such as state vector information are sent to NASAJGoddard Space Flight Center's (GSFC's) Collision Risk Assessment analysis team for review. Collision analysis is performed and the GSFC team works with the ESC member missions to develop risk reduction strategies as necessary. This paper presents various close approach statistics for the ESC. The ESC missions have been affected by debris from the recent anti-satellite test which destroyed the Chinese Fengyun- 1 C satellite. The paper also presents the percentage of close approach events induced by the Fengyun-1C debris, and presents analysis results which predict the future effects on the ESC caused by this event. Specifically, the Fengyun-1C debris is propagated for twenty years using high-performance computing technology and close approach predictions are generated for the ESC. The percent increase in the total number of conjunction events is considered to be an estimate of the collision risk due to the Fengyun-1C break- UP.

Using Theory of Planned Behavior to Predict Healthy Eating among Danish Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gronhoj, Alice; Bech-Larsen, Tino; Chan, Kara; Tsang, Lennon

2013-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to apply the theory of planned behavior to predict Danish adolescents' behavioral intention for healthy eating. Design/methodology/approach: A cluster sample survey of 410 students aged 11 to 16 years studying in Grade 6 to Grade 10 was conducted in Denmark. Findings: Perceived behavioral control followed by…

Nonlinear predictive control of a boiler-turbine unit: A state-space approach with successive on-line model linearisation and quadratic optimisation.

PubMed

Ławryńczuk, Maciej

2017-03-01

This paper details development of a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm for a boiler-turbine unit, which is a nonlinear multiple-input multiple-output process. The control objective is to follow set-point changes imposed on two state (output) variables and to satisfy constraints imposed on three inputs and one output. In order to obtain a computationally efficient control scheme, the state-space model is successively linearised on-line for the current operating point and used for prediction. In consequence, the future control policy is easily calculated from a quadratic optimisation problem. For state estimation the extended Kalman filter is used. It is demonstrated that the MPC strategy based on constant linear models does not work satisfactorily for the boiler-turbine unit whereas the discussed algorithm with on-line successive model linearisation gives practically the same trajectories as the truly nonlinear MPC controller with nonlinear optimisation repeated at each sampling instant. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computer program for prediction of fuel consumption statistical data for an upper stage three-axes stabilized on-off control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

A FORTRAN coded computer program and method to predict the reaction control fuel consumption statistics for a three axis stabilized rocket vehicle upper stage is described. A Monte Carlo approach is used which is more efficient by using closed form estimates of impulses. The effects of rocket motor thrust misalignment, static unbalance, aerodynamic disturbances, and deviations in trajectory, mass properties and control system characteristics are included. This routine can be applied to many types of on-off reaction controlled vehicles. The pseudorandom number generation and statistical analyses subroutines including the output histograms can be used for other Monte Carlo analyses problems.

Output-Feedback Model Predictive Control of a Pasteurization Pilot Plant based on an LPV model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi Pour, Fatemeh; Ocampo-Martinez, Carlos; Puig, Vicenç

2017-01-01

This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC) of a pasteurization pilot plant based on an LPV model. Since not all the states are measured, an observer is also designed, which allows implementing an output-feedback MPC scheme. However, the model of the plant is not completely observable when augmented with the disturbance models. In order to solve this problem, the following strategies are used: (i) the whole system is decoupled into two subsystems, (ii) an inner state-feedback controller is implemented into the MPC control scheme. A real-time example based on the pasteurization pilot plant is simulated as a case study for testing the behavior of the approaches.

Quasi-laminar stability and sensitivity analyses for turbulent flows: Prediction of low-frequency unsteadiness and passive control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mettot, Clément; Sipp, Denis; Bézard, Hervé

2014-04-01

This article presents a quasi-laminar stability approach to identify in high-Reynolds number flows the dominant low-frequencies and to design passive control means to shift these frequencies. The approach is based on a global linear stability analysis of mean-flows, which correspond to the time-average of the unsteady flows. Contrary to the previous work by Meliga et al. ["Sensitivity of 2-D turbulent flow past a D-shaped cylinder using global stability," Phys. Fluids 24, 061701 (2012)], we use the linearized Navier-Stokes equations based solely on the molecular viscosity (leaving aside any turbulence model and any eddy viscosity) to extract the least stable direct and adjoint global modes of the flow. Then, we compute the frequency sensitivity maps of these modes, so as to predict before hand where a small control cylinder optimally shifts the frequency of the flow. In the case of the D-shaped cylinder studied by Parezanović and Cadot [J. Fluid Mech. 693, 115 (2012)], we show that the present approach well captures the frequency of the flow and recovers accurately the frequency control maps obtained experimentally. The results are close to those already obtained by Meliga et al., who used a more complex approach in which turbulence models played a central role. The present approach is simpler and may be applied to a broader range of flows since it is tractable as soon as mean-flows — which can be obtained either numerically from simulations (Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS), Large Eddy Simulation (LES), unsteady Reynolds-Averaged-Navier-Stokes (RANS), steady RANS) or from experimental measurements (Particle Image Velocimetry - PIV) — are available. We also discuss how the influence of the control cylinder on the mean-flow may be more accurately predicted by determining an eddy-viscosity from numerical simulations or experimental measurements. From a technical point of view, we finally show how an existing compressible numerical simulation code may be used in a black-box manner to extract the global modes and sensitivity maps.

Control and Interference in Task Switching--A Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kiesel, Andrea; Steinhauser, Marco; Wendt, Mike; Falkenstein, Michael; Jost, Kerstin; Philipp, Andrea M.; Koch, Iring

2010-01-01

The task-switching paradigm offers enormous possibilities to study cognitive control as well as task interference. The current review provides an overview of recent research on both topics. First, we review different experimental approaches to task switching, such as comparing mixed-task blocks with single-task blocks, predictable task-switching…

Characterization of a Saccharomyces cerevisiae fermentation process for production of a therapeutic recombinant protein using a multivariate Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Fu, Zhibiao; Baker, Daniel; Cheng, Aili; Leighton, Julie; Appelbaum, Edward; Aon, Juan

2016-05-01

The principle of quality by design (QbD) has been widely applied to biopharmaceutical manufacturing processes. Process characterization is an essential step to implement the QbD concept to establish the design space and to define the proven acceptable ranges (PAR) for critical process parameters (CPPs). In this study, we present characterization of a Saccharomyces cerevisiae fermentation process using risk assessment analysis, statistical design of experiments (DoE), and the multivariate Bayesian predictive approach. The critical quality attributes (CQAs) and CPPs were identified with a risk assessment. The statistical model for each attribute was established using the results from the DoE study with consideration given to interactions between CPPs. Both the conventional overlapping contour plot and the multivariate Bayesian predictive approaches were used to establish the region of process operating conditions where all attributes met their specifications simultaneously. The quantitative Bayesian predictive approach was chosen to define the PARs for the CPPs, which apply to the manufacturing control strategy. Experience from the 10,000 L manufacturing scale process validation, including 64 continued process verification batches, indicates that the CPPs remain under a state of control and within the established PARs. The end product quality attributes were within their drug substance specifications. The probability generated with the Bayesian approach was also used as a tool to assess CPP deviations. This approach can be extended to develop other production process characterization and quantify a reliable operating region. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:799-812, 2016. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

An innovations approach to decoupling of multibody dynamics and control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, G.

1989-01-01

The problem of hinged multibody dynamics is solved using an extension of the innovations approach of linear filtering and prediction theory to the problem of mechanical system modeling and control. This approach has been used quite effectively to diagonalize the equations for filtering and prediction for linear state space systems. It has similar advantages in the study of dynamics and control of multibody systems. The innovations approach advanced here consists of expressing the equations of motion in terms of two closely related processes: (1) the innovations process e, a sequence of moments, obtained from the applied moments T by means of a spatially recursive Kalman filter that goes from the tip of the manipulator to its base; (2) a residual process, a sequence of velocities, obtained from the joint-angle velocities by means of an outward smoothing operations. The innovations e and the applied moments T are related by means of the relationships e = (I - L)T and T = (I + K)e. The operation (I - L) is a causal lower triangular matrix which is generated by a spatially recursive Kalman filter and the corresponding discrete-step Riccati equation. Hence, the innovations and the applied moments can be obtained from each other by means of a causal operation which is itself casually invertible.

[Locus of control and self-concept in interpersonal conflict resolution approaches].

PubMed

Hisli Sahin, Nesrin; Basim, H Nejat; Cetin, Fatih

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between self-concept and locus of control in interpersonal conflict resolution approaches and to determine the predictors of conflict resolution approach choices. The study included 345 students aged between 18 and 28 years that were studying at universities in Ankara. Data were collected using the Interpersonal Conflict Resolution Approaches Scale to measure conflict resolution approaches, the Social Comparison Scale to measure self-concept, and the Internal-External Locus of Control Scale to measure locus of control. It was observed that confrontation approach to interpersonal conflict was predicted by self-concept (beta = 0.396, P < 0.001) Moreover, self-concept was related to self-disclosure (beta = 0.180, P < 0.01) and emotional expression (beta = 0.196, P < 0.001) approaches. Locus of control played a role in the choice of all resolution approaches. In addition to these findings, it was observed that females used self-disclosure (beta = -0.163, P < 0.01) and emotional expression (beta = -0.219, P < 0.001), while males used approach (beta = 0.395, P < 0.001) and public behavior (beta = 0.270, P < 0.001) approaches in the resolution processes. Self-concept and locus of control were related to the behaviors adopted in the interpersonal conflict resolution process. Individuals with a positive self-concept and an internal locus of control adopted solutions to interpersonal conflict resolution that were more effective and constructive.

Predictive optimized adaptive PSS in a single machine infinite bus.

PubMed

Milla, Freddy; Duarte-Mermoud, Manuel A

2016-07-01

Power System Stabilizer (PSS) devices are responsible for providing a damping torque component to generators for reducing fluctuations in the system caused by small perturbations. A Predictive Optimized Adaptive PSS (POA-PSS) to improve the oscillations in a Single Machine Infinite Bus (SMIB) power system is discussed in this paper. POA-PSS provides the optimal design parameters for the classic PSS using an optimization predictive algorithm, which adapts to changes in the inputs of the system. This approach is part of small signal stability analysis, which uses equations in an incremental form around an operating point. Simulation studies on the SMIB power system illustrate that the proposed POA-PSS approach has better performance than the classical PSS. In addition, the effort in the control action of the POA-PSS is much less than that of other approaches considered for comparison. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genomic prediction unifies animal and plant breeding programs to form platforms for biological discovery.

PubMed

Hickey, John M; Chiurugwi, Tinashe; Mackay, Ian; Powell, Wayne

2017-08-30

The rate of annual yield increases for major staple crops must more than double relative to current levels in order to feed a predicted global population of 9 billion by 2050. Controlled hybridization and selective breeding have been used for centuries to adapt plant and animal species for human use. However, achieving higher, sustainable rates of improvement in yields in various species will require renewed genetic interventions and dramatic improvement of agricultural practices. Genomic prediction of breeding values has the potential to improve selection, reduce costs and provide a platform that unifies breeding approaches, biological discovery, and tools and methods. Here we compare and contrast some animal and plant breeding approaches to make a case for bringing the two together through the application of genomic selection. We propose a strategy for the use of genomic selection as a unifying approach to deliver innovative 'step changes' in the rate of genetic gain at scale.

The 4-D approach to visual control of autonomous systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dickmanns, Ernst D.

1994-01-01

Development of a 4-D approach to dynamic machine vision is described. Core elements of this method are spatio-temporal models oriented towards objects and laws of perspective projection in a foward mode. Integration of multi-sensory measurement data was achieved through spatio-temporal models as invariants for object recognition. Situation assessment and long term predictions were allowed through maintenance of a symbolic 4-D image of processes involving objects. Behavioral capabilities were easily realized by state feedback and feed-foward control.

Jacques Loeb, B. F. Skinner, and the legacy of prediction and control

PubMed Central

Hackenberg, Timothy D.

1995-01-01

The biologist Jacques Loeb is an important figure in the history of behavior analysis. Between 1890 and 1915, Loeb championed an approach to experimental biology that would later exert substantial influence on the work of B. F. Skinner and behavior analysis. This paper examines some of these sources of influence, with a particular emphasis on Loeb's firm commitment to prediction and control as fundamental goals of an experimental life science, and how these goals were extended and broadened by Skinner. Both Loeb and Skinner adopted a pragmatic approach to science that put practical control of their subject matter above formal theory testing, both based their research programs on analyses of reproducible units involving the intact organism, and both strongly endorsed technological applications of basic laboratory science. For Loeb, but especially for Skinner, control came to mean something more than mere experimental or technological control for its own sake; it became synonomous with scientific understanding. This view follows from (a) the successful working model of science Loeb and Skinner inherited from Ernst Mach, in which science is viewed as human social activity, and effective practical action is taken as the basis of scientific knowledge, and (b) Skinner's analysis of scientific activity, situated in the world of direct experience and related to practices arranged by scientific verbal communities. From this perspective, prediction and control are human acts that arise from and are maintained by social circumstances in which such acts meet with effective consequences. PMID:22478220

Improved design of constrained model predictive tracking control for batch processes against unknown uncertainties.

PubMed

Wu, Sheng; Jin, Qibing; Zhang, Ridong; Zhang, Junfeng; Gao, Furong

2017-07-01

In this paper, an improved constrained tracking control design is proposed for batch processes under uncertainties. A new process model that facilitates process state and tracking error augmentation with further additional tuning is first proposed. Then a subsequent controller design is formulated using robust stable constrained MPC optimization. Unlike conventional robust model predictive control (MPC), the proposed method enables the controller design to bear more degrees of tuning so that improved tracking control can be acquired, which is very important since uncertainties exist inevitably in practice and cause model/plant mismatches. An injection molding process is introduced to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed MPC approach in comparison with conventional robust MPC. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A predictive approach to selecting the size of a clinical trial, based on subjective clinical opinion.

PubMed

Spiegelhalter, D J; Freedman, L S

1986-01-01

The 'textbook' approach to determining sample size in a clinical trial has some fundamental weaknesses which we discuss. We describe a new predictive method which takes account of prior clinical opinion about the treatment difference. The method adopts the point of clinical equivalence (determined by interviewing the clinical participants) as the null hypothesis. Decision rules at the end of the study are based on whether the interval estimate of the treatment difference (classical or Bayesian) includes the null hypothesis. The prior distribution is used to predict the probabilities of making the decisions to use one or other treatment or to reserve final judgement. It is recommended that sample size be chosen to control the predicted probability of the last of these decisions. An example is given from a multi-centre trial of superficial bladder cancer.

Rational adaptation under task and processing constraints: implications for testing theories of cognition and action.

PubMed

Howes, Andrew; Lewis, Richard L; Vera, Alonso

2009-10-01

The authors assume that individuals adapt rationally to a utility function given constraints imposed by their cognitive architecture and the local task environment. This assumption underlies a new approach to modeling and understanding cognition-cognitively bounded rational analysis-that sharpens the predictive acuity of general, integrated theories of cognition and action. Such theories provide the necessary computational means to explain the flexible nature of human behavior but in doing so introduce extreme degrees of freedom in accounting for data. The new approach narrows the space of predicted behaviors through analysis of the payoff achieved by alternative strategies, rather than through fitting strategies and theoretical parameters to data. It extends and complements established approaches, including computational cognitive architectures, rational analysis, optimal motor control, bounded rationality, and signal detection theory. The authors illustrate the approach with a reanalysis of an existing account of psychological refractory period (PRP) dual-task performance and the development and analysis of a new theory of ordered dual-task responses. These analyses yield several novel results, including a new understanding of the role of strategic variation in existing accounts of PRP and the first predictive, quantitative account showing how the details of ordered dual-task phenomena emerge from the rational control of a cognitive system subject to the combined constraints of internal variance, motor interference, and a response selection bottleneck.

Petri Net computational modelling of Langerhans cell Interferon Regulatory Factor Network predicts their role in T cell activation.

PubMed

Polak, Marta E; Ung, Chuin Ying; Masapust, Joanna; Freeman, Tom C; Ardern-Jones, Michael R

2017-04-06

Langerhans cells (LCs) are able to orchestrate adaptive immune responses in the skin by interpreting the microenvironmental context in which they encounter foreign substances, but the regulatory basis for this has not been established. Utilising systems immunology approaches combining in silico modelling of a reconstructed gene regulatory network (GRN) with in vitro validation of the predictions, we sought to determine the mechanisms of regulation of immune responses in human primary LCs. The key role of Interferon regulatory factors (IRFs) as controllers of the human Langerhans cell response to epidermal cytokines was revealed by whole transcriptome analysis. Applying Boolean logic we assembled a Petri net-based model of the IRF-GRN which provides molecular pathway predictions for the induction of different transcriptional programmes in LCs. In silico simulations performed after model parameterisation with transcription factor expression values predicted that human LC activation of antigen-specific CD8 T cells would be differentially regulated by epidermal cytokine induction of specific IRF-controlled pathways. This was confirmed by in vitro measurement of IFN-γ production by activated T cells. As a proof of concept, this approach shows that stochastic modelling of a specific immune networks renders transcriptome data valuable for the prediction of functional outcomes of immune responses.

Respiratory protective device design using control system techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burgess, W. A.; Yankovich, D.

1972-01-01

The feasibility of a control system analysis approach to provide a design base for respiratory protective devices is considered. A system design approach requires that all functions and components of the system be mathematically identified in a model of the RPD. The mathematical notations describe the operation of the components as closely as possible. The individual component mathematical descriptions are then combined to describe the complete RPD. Finally, analysis of the mathematical notation by control system theory is used to derive compensating component values that force the system to operate in a stable and predictable manner.

Systematic elucidation and in vivo validation of sequences enriched in hindbrain transcriptional control

PubMed Central

Burzynski, Grzegorz M.; Reed, Xylena; Taher, Leila; Stine, Zachary E.; Matsui, Takeshi; Ovcharenko, Ivan; McCallion, Andrew S.

2012-01-01

Illuminating the primary sequence encryption of enhancers is central to understanding the regulatory architecture of genomes. We have developed a machine learning approach to decipher motif patterns of hindbrain enhancers and identify 40,000 sequences in the human genome that we predict display regulatory control that includes the hindbrain. Consistent with their roles in hindbrain patterning, MEIS1, NKX6-1, as well as HOX and POU family binding motifs contributed strongly to this enhancer model. Predicted hindbrain enhancers are overrepresented at genes expressed in hindbrain and associated with nervous system development, and primarily reside in the areas of open chromatin. In addition, 77 (0.2%) of these predictions are identified as hindbrain enhancers on the VISTA Enhancer Browser, and 26,000 (60%) overlap enhancer marks (H3K4me1 or H3K27ac). To validate these putative hindbrain enhancers, we selected 55 elements distributed throughout our predictions and six low scoring controls for evaluation in a zebrafish transgenic assay. When assayed in mosaic transgenic embryos, 51/55 elements directed expression in the central nervous system. Furthermore, 30/34 (88%) predicted enhancers analyzed in stable zebrafish transgenic lines directed expression in the larval zebrafish hindbrain. Subsequent analysis of sequence fragments selected based upon motif clustering further confirmed the critical role of the motifs contributing to the classifier. Our results demonstrate the existence of a primary sequence code characteristic to hindbrain enhancers. This code can be accurately extracted using machine-learning approaches and applied successfully for de novo identification of hindbrain enhancers. This study represents a critical step toward the dissection of regulatory control in specific neuronal subtypes. PMID:22759862

Broad control of disulfide stability through microenvironmental effects and analysis in complex redox environments.

PubMed

Wu, Chuanliu; Wang, Shuo; Brülisauer, Lorine; Leroux, Jean-Christophe; Gauthier, Marc A

2013-07-08

Disulfide bonds stabilize the tertiary- and quaternary structure of proteins. In addition, they can be used to engineer redox-sensitive (bio)materials and drug-delivery systems. Many of these applications require control of the stability of the disulfide bond. It has recently been shown that the charged microenvironment of the disulfide can be used to alter their stability by ∼3 orders of magnitude in a predictable and finely tunable manner at acidic pH. The aim of this work is to extend these findings to physiological pH and to demonstrate the validity of this approach in complex redox milieu. Disulfide microenvironments were manipulated synergistically with steric hindrance herein to control disulfide bond stability over ∼3 orders of magnitude at neutral pH. Control of disulfide stability through microenvironmental effects could also be observed in complex redox buffers (including serum) and in the presence of cells. Such fine and predictable control of disulfide properties is not achievable using other existing approaches. These findings provide easily implementable and general tools for controlling the responsiveness of biomaterials and drug delivery systems toward various local endogenous redox environments.

Algorithms for a Closed-Loop Artificial Pancreas: The Case for Model Predictive Control

PubMed Central

Bequette, B. Wayne

2013-01-01

The relative merits of model predictive control (MPC) and proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control are discussed, with the end goal of a closed-loop artificial pancreas (AP). It is stressed that neither MPC nor PID are single algorithms, but rather are approaches or strategies that may be implemented very differently by different engineers. The primary advantages to MPC are that (i) constraints on the insulin delivery rate (and/or insulin on board) can be explicitly included in the control calculation; (ii) it is a general framework that makes it relatively easy to include the effect of meals, exercise, and other events that are a function of the time of day; and (iii) it is flexible enough to include many different objectives, from set-point tracking (target) to zone (control to range). In the end, however, it is recognized that the control algorithm, while important, represents only a portion of the effort required to develop a closed-loop AP. Thus, any number of algorithms/approaches can be successful—the engineers involved in the design must have experience with the particular technique, including the important experience of implementing the algorithm in human studies and not simply through simulation studies. PMID:24351190

Automated System Checkout to Support Predictive Maintenance for the Reusable Launch Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson-Hine, Ann; Deb, Somnath; Kulkarni, Deepak; Wang, Yao; Lau, Sonie (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

The Propulsion Checkout and Control System (PCCS) is a predictive maintenance software system. The real-time checkout procedures and diagnostics are designed to detect components that need maintenance based on their condition, rather than using more conventional approaches such as scheduled or reliability centered maintenance. Predictive maintenance can reduce turn-around time and cost and increase safety as compared to conventional maintenance approaches. Real-time sensor validation, limit checking, statistical anomaly detection, and failure prediction based on simulation models are employed. Multi-signal models, useful for testability analysis during system design, are used during the operational phase to detect and isolate degraded or failed components. The TEAMS-RT real-time diagnostic engine was developed to utilize the multi-signal models by Qualtech Systems, Inc. Capability of predicting the maintenance condition was successfully demonstrated with a variety of data, from simulation to actual operation on the Integrated Propulsion Technology Demonstrator (IPTD) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Playback of IPTD valve actuations for feature recognition updates identified an otherwise undetectable Main Propulsion System 12 inch prevalve degradation. The algorithms were loaded into the Propulsion Checkout and Control System for further development and are the first known application of predictive Integrated Vehicle Health Management to an operational cryogenic testbed. The software performed successfully in real-time, meeting the required performance goal of 1 second cycle time.

Predicting school adjustment from multiple perspectives on parental behaviors.

PubMed

Ratelle, Catherine F; Duchesne, Stéphane; Guay, Frédéric

2017-01-01

Past research supported the importance of parental autonomy support, involvement, and structure for student outcomes. The goal of this study was to test the contribution of these behaviors from mothers and fathers in predicting adolescents' adjustment in school using a multi-informant approach. A sample of 522 adolescents (233 boys, 389 girls), their mothers (n = 535), and fathers (n = 296) participated in the study. Results revealed that parents' self-evaluations explained additional variance in children's school adjustment, over and beyond the contribution of children's evaluation of their parents. Maternal reports on their positive behaviors (autonomy support, involvement, and structure) predicted their child's academic and emotional adjustment while their reported control predicted lower levels of these. Fathers' self-reported positive behaviors predicted academic adjustment while their control predicted lower academic and personal-emotional adjustment. These findings support the importance of multiple assessments of parental behaviors for improving the prediction of adjustment in school. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Isothermal life prediction of composite lamina using a damage mechanics approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abuelfoutouh, Nader M.; Verrilli, Michael J.; Halford, Gary R.

1989-01-01

A method for predicting isothermal plastic fatigue life of a composite lamina is presented in which both fibers and matrix are isotropic materials. In general, the fatigue resistances of the matrix, fibers, and interfacial material must be known in order to predict composite fatigue life. Composite fatigue life is predicted using only the matrix fatigue resistance due to inelasticity micromechanisms. The effect of the fiber orientation on loading direction is accounted for while predicting composite life. The application is currently limited to isothermal cases where the internal thermal stresses that might arise from thermal strain mismatch between fibers and matrix are negligible. The theory is formulated to predict the fatigue life of a composite lamina under either load or strain control. It is applied currently to predict the life of tungsten-copper composite lamina at 260 C under tension-tension load control. The calculated life of the lamina is in good agreement with available composite low cycle fatigue data.

Robust model predictive control of nonlinear systems with unmodeled dynamics and bounded uncertainties based on neural networks.

PubMed

Yan, Zheng; Wang, Jun

2014-03-01

This paper presents a neural network approach to robust model predictive control (MPC) for constrained discrete-time nonlinear systems with unmodeled dynamics affected by bounded uncertainties. The exact nonlinear model of underlying process is not precisely known, but a partially known nominal model is available. This partially known nonlinear model is first decomposed to an affine term plus an unknown high-order term via Jacobian linearization. The linearization residue combined with unmodeled dynamics is then modeled using an extreme learning machine via supervised learning. The minimax methodology is exploited to deal with bounded uncertainties. The minimax optimization problem is reformulated as a convex minimization problem and is iteratively solved by a two-layer recurrent neural network. The proposed neurodynamic approach to nonlinear MPC improves the computational efficiency and sheds a light for real-time implementability of MPC technology. Simulation results are provided to substantiate the effectiveness and characteristics of the proposed approach.

Polygenic risk score analysis of pathologically confirmed Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Escott-Price, Valentina; Myers, Amanda J; Huentelman, Matt; Hardy, John

2017-08-01

Previous estimates of the utility of polygenic risk score analysis for the prediction of Alzheimer disease have given area under the curve (AUC) estimates of <80%. However, these have been based on the genetic analysis of clinical case-control series. Here, we apply the same analytic approaches to a pathological case-control series and show a predictive AUC of 84%. We suggest that this analysis has clinical utility and that there is limited room for further improvement using genetic data. Ann Neurol 2017;82:311-314. © 2017 American Neurological Association.

Adjoint Method and Predictive Control for 1-D Flow in NASA Ames 11-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan; Ardema, Mark

2006-01-01

This paper describes a modeling method and a new optimal control approach to investigate a Mach number control problem for the NASA Ames 11-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel. The flow in the wind tunnel is modeled by the 1-D unsteady Euler equations whose boundary conditions prescribe a controlling action by a compressor. The boundary control inputs to the compressor are in turn controlled by a drive motor system and an inlet guide vane system whose dynamics are modeled by ordinary differential equations. The resulting Euler equations are thus coupled to the ordinary differential equations via the boundary conditions. Optimality conditions are established by an adjoint method and are used to develop a model predictive linear-quadratic optimal control for regulating the Mach number due to a test model disturbance during a continuous pitch

Perceptual Training Methods Compared: The Relative Efficacy of Different Approaches to Enhancing Sport-Specific Anticipation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abernethy, Bruce; Schorer, Jorg; Jackson, Robin C.; Hagemann, Norbert

2012-01-01

The comparative efficacy of different perceptual training approaches for the improvement of anticipation was examined using a goalkeeping task from European handball that required the rapid prediction of shot direction. Novice participants (N = 60) were assigned equally to four different training groups and two different control groups (a placebo…

Cross-organism learning method to discover new gene functionalities.

PubMed

Domeniconi, Giacomo; Masseroli, Marco; Moro, Gianluca; Pinoli, Pietro

2016-04-01

Knowledge of gene and protein functions is paramount for the understanding of physiological and pathological biological processes, as well as in the development of new drugs and therapies. Analyses for biomedical knowledge discovery greatly benefit from the availability of gene and protein functional feature descriptions expressed through controlled terminologies and ontologies, i.e., of gene and protein biomedical controlled annotations. In the last years, several databases of such annotations have become available; yet, these valuable annotations are incomplete, include errors and only some of them represent highly reliable human curated information. Computational techniques able to reliably predict new gene or protein annotations with an associated likelihood value are thus paramount. Here, we propose a novel cross-organisms learning approach to reliably predict new functionalities for the genes of an organism based on the known controlled annotations of the genes of another, evolutionarily related and better studied, organism. We leverage a new representation of the annotation discovery problem and a random perturbation of the available controlled annotations to allow the application of supervised algorithms to predict with good accuracy unknown gene annotations. Taking advantage of the numerous gene annotations available for a well-studied organism, our cross-organisms learning method creates and trains better prediction models, which can then be applied to predict new gene annotations of a target organism. We tested and compared our method with the equivalent single organism approach on different gene annotation datasets of five evolutionarily related organisms (Homo sapiens, Mus musculus, Bos taurus, Gallus gallus and Dictyostelium discoideum). Results show both the usefulness of the perturbation method of available annotations for better prediction model training and a great improvement of the cross-organism models with respect to the single-organism ones, without influence of the evolutionary distance between the considered organisms. The generated ranked lists of reliably predicted annotations, which describe novel gene functionalities and have an associated likelihood value, are very valuable both to complement available annotations, for better coverage in biomedical knowledge discovery analyses, and to quicken the annotation curation process, by focusing it on the prioritized novel annotations predicted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting the stochastic guiding of kinesin-driven microtubules in microfabricated tracks: a statistical-mechanics-based modeling approach.

PubMed

Lin, Chih-Tin; Meyhofer, Edgar; Kurabayashi, Katsuo

2010-01-01

Directional control of microtubule shuttles via microfabricated tracks is key to the development of controlled nanoscale mass transport by kinesin motor molecules. Here we develop and test a model to quantitatively predict the stochastic behavior of microtubule guiding when they mechanically collide with the sidewalls of lithographically patterned tracks. By taking into account appropriate probability distributions of microscopic states of the microtubule system, the model allows us to theoretically analyze the roles of collision conditions and kinesin surface densities in determining how the motion of microtubule shuttles is controlled. In addition, we experimentally observe the statistics of microtubule collision events and compare our theoretical prediction with experimental data to validate our model. The model will direct the design of future hybrid nanotechnology devices that integrate nanoscale transport systems powered by kinesin-driven molecular shuttles.

Exposure–response model for sibutramine and placebo: suggestion for application to long-term weight-control drug development

PubMed Central

Han, Seunghoon; Jeon, Sangil; Hong, Taegon; Lee, Jongtae; Bae, Soo Hyeon; Park, Wan-su; Park, Gab-jin; Youn, Sunil; Jang, Doo Yeon; Kim, Kyung-Soo; Yim, Dong-Seok

2015-01-01

No wholly successful weight-control drugs have been developed to date, despite the tremendous demand. We present an exposure–response model of sibutramine mesylate that can be applied during clinical development of other weight-control drugs. Additionally, we provide a model-based evaluation of sibutramine efficacy. Data from a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter study were used (N=120). Subjects in the treatment arm were initially given 8.37 mg sibutramine base daily, and those who lost <2 kg after 4 weeks’ treatment were escalated to 12.55 mg. The duration of treatment was 24 weeks. Drug concentration and body weight were measured predose and at 4 weeks, 8 weeks, and 24 weeks after treatment initiation. Exposure and response to sibutramine, including the placebo effect, were modeled using NONMEM 7.2. An asymptotic model approaching the final body weight was chosen to describe the time course of weight loss. Extent of weight loss was described successfully using a sigmoidal exposure–response relationship of the drug with a constant placebo effect in each individual. The placebo effect was influenced by subjects’ sex and baseline body mass index. Maximal weight loss was predicted to occur around 1 year after treatment initiation. The difference in mean weight loss between the sibutramine (daily 12.55 mg) and placebo groups was predicted to be 4.5% in a simulation of 1 year of treatment, with considerable overlap of prediction intervals. Our exposure–response model, which included the placebo effect, is the first example of a quantitative model that can be used to predict the efficacy of weight-control drugs. Similar approaches can help decision-making during clinical development of novel weight-loss drugs. PMID:26392753

Exposure-response model for sibutramine and placebo: suggestion for application to long-term weight-control drug development.

PubMed

Han, Seunghoon; Jeon, Sangil; Hong, Taegon; Lee, Jongtae; Bae, Soo Hyeon; Park, Wan-su; Park, Gab-jin; Youn, Sunil; Jang, Doo Yeon; Kim, Kyung-Soo; Yim, Dong-Seok

2015-01-01

No wholly successful weight-control drugs have been developed to date, despite the tremendous demand. We present an exposure-response model of sibutramine mesylate that can be applied during clinical development of other weight-control drugs. Additionally, we provide a model-based evaluation of sibutramine efficacy. Data from a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter study were used (N=120). Subjects in the treatment arm were initially given 8.37 mg sibutramine base daily, and those who lost <2 kg after 4 weeks' treatment were escalated to 12.55 mg. The duration of treatment was 24 weeks. Drug concentration and body weight were measured predose and at 4 weeks, 8 weeks, and 24 weeks after treatment initiation. Exposure and response to sibutramine, including the placebo effect, were modeled using NONMEM 7.2. An asymptotic model approaching the final body weight was chosen to describe the time course of weight loss. Extent of weight loss was described successfully using a sigmoidal exposure-response relationship of the drug with a constant placebo effect in each individual. The placebo effect was influenced by subjects' sex and baseline body mass index. Maximal weight loss was predicted to occur around 1 year after treatment initiation. The difference in mean weight loss between the sibutramine (daily 12.55 mg) and placebo groups was predicted to be 4.5% in a simulation of 1 year of treatment, with considerable overlap of prediction intervals. Our exposure-response model, which included the placebo effect, is the first example of a quantitative model that can be used to predict the efficacy of weight-control drugs. Similar approaches can help decision-making during clinical development of novel weight-loss drugs.

Nonlinear adaptive control system design with asymptotically stable parameter estimation error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishkov, Rumen; Darmonski, Stanislav

2018-01-01

The paper presents a new general method for nonlinear adaptive system design with asymptotic stability of the parameter estimation error. The advantages of the approach include asymptotic unknown parameter estimation without persistent excitation and capability to directly control the estimates transient response time. The method proposed modifies the basic parameter estimation dynamics designed via a known nonlinear adaptive control approach. The modification is based on the generalised prediction error, a priori constraints with a hierarchical parameter projection algorithm, and the stable data accumulation concepts. The data accumulation principle is the main tool for achieving asymptotic unknown parameter estimation. It relies on the parametric identifiability system property introduced. Necessary and sufficient conditions for exponential stability of the data accumulation dynamics are derived. The approach is applied in a nonlinear adaptive speed tracking vector control of a three-phase induction motor.

A Discrete-Time Average Model Based Predictive Control for Quasi-Z-Source Inverter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Yushan; Abu-Rub, Haitham; Xue, Yaosuo

A discrete-time average model-based predictive control (DTA-MPC) is proposed for a quasi-Z-source inverter (qZSI). As a single-stage inverter topology, the qZSI regulates the dc-link voltage and the ac output voltage through the shoot-through (ST) duty cycle and the modulation index. Several feedback strategies have been dedicated to produce these two control variables, among which the most popular are the proportional–integral (PI)-based control and the conventional model-predictive control (MPC). However, in the former, there are tradeoffs between fast response and stability; the latter is robust, but at the cost of high calculation burden and variable switching frequency. Moreover, they require anmore » elaborated design or fine tuning of controller parameters. The proposed DTA-MPC predicts future behaviors of the ST duty cycle and modulation signals, based on the established discrete-time average model of the quasi-Z-source (qZS) inductor current, the qZS capacitor voltage, and load currents. The prediction actions are applied to the qZSI modulator in the next sampling instant, without the need of other controller parameters’ design. A constant switching frequency and significantly reduced computations are achieved with high performance. Transient responses and steady-state accuracy of the qZSI system under the proposed DTA-MPC are investigated and compared with the PI-based control and the conventional MPC. Simulation and experimental results verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach for the qZSI.« less

A Discrete-Time Average Model Based Predictive Control for Quasi-Z-Source Inverter

DOE PAGES

Liu, Yushan; Abu-Rub, Haitham; Xue, Yaosuo; ...

2017-12-25

A discrete-time average model-based predictive control (DTA-MPC) is proposed for a quasi-Z-source inverter (qZSI). As a single-stage inverter topology, the qZSI regulates the dc-link voltage and the ac output voltage through the shoot-through (ST) duty cycle and the modulation index. Several feedback strategies have been dedicated to produce these two control variables, among which the most popular are the proportional–integral (PI)-based control and the conventional model-predictive control (MPC). However, in the former, there are tradeoffs between fast response and stability; the latter is robust, but at the cost of high calculation burden and variable switching frequency. Moreover, they require anmore » elaborated design or fine tuning of controller parameters. The proposed DTA-MPC predicts future behaviors of the ST duty cycle and modulation signals, based on the established discrete-time average model of the quasi-Z-source (qZS) inductor current, the qZS capacitor voltage, and load currents. The prediction actions are applied to the qZSI modulator in the next sampling instant, without the need of other controller parameters’ design. A constant switching frequency and significantly reduced computations are achieved with high performance. Transient responses and steady-state accuracy of the qZSI system under the proposed DTA-MPC are investigated and compared with the PI-based control and the conventional MPC. Simulation and experimental results verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach for the qZSI.« less

Lithium-ion battery cell-level control using constrained model predictive control and equivalent circuit models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xavier, Marcelo A.; Trimboli, M. Scott

2015-07-01

This paper introduces a novel application of model predictive control (MPC) to cell-level charging of a lithium-ion battery utilizing an equivalent circuit model of battery dynamics. The approach employs a modified form of the MPC algorithm that caters for direct feed-though signals in order to model near-instantaneous battery ohmic resistance. The implementation utilizes a 2nd-order equivalent circuit discrete-time state-space model based on actual cell parameters; the control methodology is used to compute a fast charging profile that respects input, output, and state constraints. Results show that MPC is well-suited to the dynamics of the battery control problem and further suggest significant performance improvements might be achieved by extending the result to electrochemical models.

Stability and Control CFD Investigations of a Generic 53 Degree Swept UCAV Configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frink, Neal T.

2014-01-01

NATO STO Task Group AVT-201 on "Extended Assessment of Reliable Stability & Control Prediction Methods for NATO Air Vehicles" is studying various computational approaches to predict stability and control parameters for aircraft undergoing non-linear flight conditions. This paper contributes an assessment through correlations with wind tunnel data for the state of aerodynamic predictive capability of time-accurate RANS methodology on the group's focus configuration, a 53deg swept and twisted lambda wing UCAV, undergoing a variety of roll, pitch, and yaw motions. The vehicle aerodynamics is dominated by the complex non-linear physics of round leading-edge vortex flow separation. Correlations with experimental data are made for static longitudinal/lateral sweeps, and at varying frequencies of prescribed roll/pitch/yaw sinusoidal motion for the vehicle operating with and without control surfaces. The data and the derived understanding should prove useful to the AVT-201 team and other researchers who are developing techniques for augmenting flight simulation models from low-speed CFD predictions of aircraft traversing non-linear regions of a flight envelope.

Prediction of outcome in internet-delivered cognitive behaviour therapy for paediatric obsessive-compulsive disorder: A machine learning approach.

PubMed

Lenhard, Fabian; Sauer, Sebastian; Andersson, Erik; Månsson, Kristoffer Nt; Mataix-Cols, David; Rück, Christian; Serlachius, Eva

2018-03-01

There are no consistent predictors of treatment outcome in paediatric obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). One reason for this might be the use of suboptimal statistical methodology. Machine learning is an approach to efficiently analyse complex data. Machine learning has been widely used within other fields, but has rarely been tested in the prediction of paediatric mental health treatment outcomes. To test four different machine learning methods in the prediction of treatment response in a sample of paediatric OCD patients who had received Internet-delivered cognitive behaviour therapy (ICBT). Participants were 61 adolescents (12-17 years) who enrolled in a randomized controlled trial and received ICBT. All clinical baseline variables were used to predict strictly defined treatment response status three months after ICBT. Four machine learning algorithms were implemented. For comparison, we also employed a traditional logistic regression approach. Multivariate logistic regression could not detect any significant predictors. In contrast, all four machine learning algorithms performed well in the prediction of treatment response, with 75 to 83% accuracy. The results suggest that machine learning algorithms can successfully be applied to predict paediatric OCD treatment outcome. Validation studies and studies in other disorders are warranted. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A water balance model to estimate flow through the Old and Middle River corridor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, Stephen W.; Gross, Edward S.; Hutton, Paul H.

2016-01-01

We applied a water balance model to predict tidally averaged (subtidal) flows through the Old River and Middle River corridor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. We reviewed the dynamics that govern subtidal flows and water levels and adopted a simplified representation. In this water balance approach, we estimated ungaged flows as linear functions of known (or specified) flows. We assumed that subtidal storage within the control volume varies because of fortnightly variation in subtidal water level, Delta inflow, and barometric pressure. The water balance model effectively predicts subtidal flows and approaches the accuracy of a 1–D Delta hydrodynamic model. We explore the potential to improve the approach by representing more complex dynamics and identify possible future improvements.

Multivariate statistical analysis of a high rate biofilm process treating kraft mill bleach plant effluent.

PubMed

Goode, C; LeRoy, J; Allen, D G

2007-01-01

This study reports on a multivariate analysis of the moving bed biofilm reactor (MBBR) wastewater treatment system at a Canadian pulp mill. The modelling approach involved a data overview by principal component analysis (PCA) followed by partial least squares (PLS) modelling with the objective of explaining and predicting changes in the BOD output of the reactor. Over two years of data with 87 process measurements were used to build the models. Variables were collected from the MBBR control scheme as well as upstream in the bleach plant and in digestion. To account for process dynamics, a variable lagging approach was used for variables with significant temporal correlations. It was found that wood type pulped at the mill was a significant variable governing reactor performance. Other important variables included flow parameters, faults in the temperature or pH control of the reactor, and some potential indirect indicators of biomass activity (residual nitrogen and pH out). The most predictive model was found to have an RMSEP value of 606 kgBOD/d, representing a 14.5% average error. This was a good fit, given the measurement error of the BOD test. Overall, the statistical approach was effective in describing and predicting MBBR treatment performance.

A Novel Approach for Blast-Induced Flyrock Prediction Based on Imperialist Competitive Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network

PubMed Central

Marto, Aminaton; Jahed Armaghani, Danial; Tonnizam Mohamad, Edy; Makhtar, Ahmad Mahir

2014-01-01

Flyrock is one of the major disturbances induced by blasting which may cause severe damage to nearby structures. This phenomenon has to be precisely predicted and subsequently controlled through the changing in the blast design to minimize potential risk of blasting. The scope of this study is to predict flyrock induced by blasting through a novel approach based on the combination of imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) and artificial neural network (ANN). For this purpose, the parameters of 113 blasting operations were accurately recorded and flyrock distances were measured for each operation. By applying the sensitivity analysis, maximum charge per delay and powder factor were determined as the most influential parameters on flyrock. In the light of this analysis, two new empirical predictors were developed to predict flyrock distance. For a comparison purpose, a predeveloped backpropagation (BP) ANN was developed and the results were compared with those of the proposed ICA-ANN model and empirical predictors. The results clearly showed the superiority of the proposed ICA-ANN model in comparison with the proposed BP-ANN model and empirical approaches. PMID:25147856

Longitudinal Study-Based Dementia Prediction for Public Health

PubMed Central

Kim, HeeChel; Chun, Hong-Woo; Kim, Seonho; Coh, Byoung-Youl; Kwon, Oh-Jin; Moon, Yeong-Ho

2017-01-01

The issue of public health in Korea has attracted significant attention given the aging of the country’s population, which has created many types of social problems. The approach proposed in this article aims to address dementia, one of the most significant symptoms of aging and a public health care issue in Korea. The Korean National Health Insurance Service Senior Cohort Database contains personal medical data of every citizen in Korea. There are many different medical history patterns between individuals with dementia and normal controls. The approach used in this study involved examination of personal medical history features from personal disease history, sociodemographic data, and personal health examinations to develop a prediction model. The prediction model used a support-vector machine learning technique to perform a 10-fold cross-validation analysis. The experimental results demonstrated promising performance (80.9% F-measure). The proposed approach supported the significant influence of personal medical history features during an optimal observation period. It is anticipated that a biomedical “big data”-based disease prediction model may assist the diagnosis of any disease more correctly. PMID:28867810

A novel approach for blast-induced flyrock prediction based on imperialist competitive algorithm and artificial neural network.

PubMed

Marto, Aminaton; Hajihassani, Mohsen; Armaghani, Danial Jahed; Mohamad, Edy Tonnizam; Makhtar, Ahmad Mahir

2014-01-01

Flyrock is one of the major disturbances induced by blasting which may cause severe damage to nearby structures. This phenomenon has to be precisely predicted and subsequently controlled through the changing in the blast design to minimize potential risk of blasting. The scope of this study is to predict flyrock induced by blasting through a novel approach based on the combination of imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) and artificial neural network (ANN). For this purpose, the parameters of 113 blasting operations were accurately recorded and flyrock distances were measured for each operation. By applying the sensitivity analysis, maximum charge per delay and powder factor were determined as the most influential parameters on flyrock. In the light of this analysis, two new empirical predictors were developed to predict flyrock distance. For a comparison purpose, a predeveloped backpropagation (BP) ANN was developed and the results were compared with those of the proposed ICA-ANN model and empirical predictors. The results clearly showed the superiority of the proposed ICA-ANN model in comparison with the proposed BP-ANN model and empirical approaches.

Vehicle height and posture control of the electronic air suspension system using the hybrid system approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiaoqiang; Cai, Yingfeng; Chen, Long; Liu, Yanling; Wang, Shaohua

2016-03-01

The electronic air suspension (EAS) system can improve ride comfort, fuel economy and handling safety of vehicles by adjusting vehicle height. This paper describes the development of a novel controller using the hybrid system approach to adjust the vehicle height (height control) and to regulate the roll and pitch angles of the vehicle body during the height adjustment process (posture control). The vehicle height adjustment system of EAS poses challenging hybrid control problems, since it features different discrete modes of operation, where each mode has an associated linear continuous-time dynamic. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to the modelling and controller design problem for the vehicle height adjustment system of EAS. The system model is described firstly in the hybrid system description language (HYSDEL) to obtain a mixed logical dynamical (MLD) hybrid model. For the resulting model, a hybrid model predictive controller is tuned to improve the vehicle height and posture tracking accuracy and to achieve the on-off statuses direct control of solenoid valves. The effectiveness and performance of the proposed approach are demonstrated by simulations and actual vehicle tests.

Predictive fault-tolerant control of an all-thruster satellite in 6-DOF motion via neural network model updating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavakoli, M. M.; Assadian, N.

2018-03-01

The problem of controlling an all-thruster spacecraft in the coupled translational-rotational motion in presence of actuators fault and/or failure is investigated in this paper. The nonlinear model predictive control approach is used because of its ability to predict the future behavior of the system. The fault/failure of the thrusters changes the mapping between the commanded forces to the thrusters and actual force/torque generated by the thruster system. Thus, the basic six degree-of-freedom kinetic equations are separated from this mapping and a set of neural networks are trained off-line to learn the kinetic equations. Then, two neural networks are attached to these trained networks in order to learn the thruster commands to force/torque mappings on-line. Different off-nominal conditions are modeled so that neural networks can detect any failure and fault, including scale factor and misalignment of thrusters. A simple model of the spacecraft relative motion is used in MPC to decrease the computational burden. However, a precise model by the means of orbit propagation including different types of perturbation is utilized to evaluate the usefulness of the proposed approach in actual conditions. The numerical simulation shows that this method can successfully control the all-thruster spacecraft with ON-OFF thrusters in different combinations of thruster fault and/or failure.

Intolerance for approach of ambiguity in social anxiety disorder.

PubMed

Kuckertz, Jennie M; Strege, Marlene V; Amir, Nader

2017-06-01

Previous research has utilised the approach-avoidance task (AAT) to measure approach and avoidance action tendencies in socially anxious individuals. "Neutral" social stimuli may be perceived as ambiguous and hence threatening to socially anxious individuals, however it is unclear whether this results in difficulty approaching ambiguous ("neutral") versus unambiguous threat (e.g. disgust) faces (i.e. intolerance of ambiguity). Thirty participants with social anxiety disorder (SADs) and 29 non-anxious controls completed an implicit AAT in which they were instructed to approach or avoid neutral and disgust faces (i.e. pull or push a joystick) based on colour of the picture border. Results indicated that SADs demonstrated greater difficulty approaching neutral relative to disgust faces. Moreover, intolerance for approach of ambiguity predicted social anxiety severity while controlling for the effects of trait anxiety and depression. Our results provide further support for the role of intolerance of ambiguity in SAD.

Understanding food webs in the Chesapeake Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keough, J.R.; Haramis, G.M.; Perry, M.C.; Perry, M.C.

2002-01-01

Approaches to predictive modeling and to management of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem are 'bottom up' (i.e., approaches involve the control of nutrient inputs in attempts to manage plankton productivity) and 'top down' (i.e., approaches involve controls on harvest of fisheries and wildlife in attempts to manage vertebrate populations). Both approaches are limited by a lack of understanding of trophic connections between nutrient inputs, primary producers, and higher trophic level consumers. This project is aimed at identifying trophic structure for the submersed aquatic vegetation habitat of the Chesapeake Bay. We are employing analysis of stable isotope ratios of plant and animal tissues to identify trophic levels and traditional food habits analysis to identify the foods of a number of species of waterfowl.

Pursuit and prediction in the tracking of moving food by a teleost fish (Acanthaluteres spilomelanurus).

PubMed

Lanchester, B S; Mark, R F

1975-12-01

1. The path, eye and body movements of a teleost fish (the leatherjacket Acanthaluteres spilomelanurus) approaching and taking food were measured by cinematography. 2. Fixation of the food by movement of the eyes is an invariable feature of the approach. The eyes then remain aligned with the target while the body moves forward and round to bring the mouth to the food. 3. When pursuing pieces of food moving vertically at constant velocity through the water these fish normally trace out the pathway that can be calculated by assuming the fish aims constantly at the food. Predictive pathways that imply anticipation of the point of intersection with the food are not regularly seen. 4. Deviations from pursuit occur sporadically, usually in the direction of a predictive path, particularly when the fish approach falling food from below. 5. The geometry of the situation suggests that predictive paths may sometimes be generated if the alignment of eye and body during the pursuit of moving food can be delayed. In approaches from below this may be because forward movement of the fish would tend to stabilize the image of the falling food in the retina. 6. We suggest that a simple linked control system using both eye and body movements to fixate retinal images will on occasions generate predictive pathways without any need for the central nervous system to calculate them in advance.

Adaptive neuron-to-EMG decoder training for FES neuroprostheses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ethier, Christian; Acuna, Daniel; Solla, Sara A.; Miller, Lee E.

2016-08-01

Objective. We have previously demonstrated a brain-machine interface neuroprosthetic system that provided continuous control of functional electrical stimulation (FES) and restoration of grasp in a primate model of spinal cord injury (SCI). Predicting intended EMG directly from cortical recordings provides a flexible high-dimensional control signal for FES. However, no peripheral signal such as force or EMG is available for training EMG decoders in paralyzed individuals. Approach. Here we present a method for training an EMG decoder in the absence of muscle activity recordings; the decoder relies on mapping behaviorally relevant cortical activity to the inferred EMG activity underlying an intended action. Monkeys were trained at a 2D isometric wrist force task to control a computer cursor by applying force in the flexion, extension, ulnar, and radial directions and execute a center-out task. We used a generic muscle force-to-endpoint force model based on muscle pulling directions to relate each target force to an optimal EMG pattern that attained the target force while minimizing overall muscle activity. We trained EMG decoders during the target hold periods using a gradient descent algorithm that compared EMG predictions to optimal EMG patterns. Main results. We tested this method both offline and online. We quantified both the accuracy of offline force predictions and the ability of a monkey to use these real-time force predictions for closed-loop cursor control. We compared both offline and online results to those obtained with several other direct force decoders, including an optimal decoder computed from concurrently measured neural and force signals. Significance. This novel approach to training an adaptive EMG decoder could make a brain-control FES neuroprosthesis an effective tool to restore the hand function of paralyzed individuals. Clinical implementation would make use of individualized EMG-to-force models. Broad generalization could be achieved by including data from multiple grasping tasks in the training of the neuron-to-EMG decoder. Our approach would make it possible for persons with SCI to grasp objects with their own hands, using near-normal motor intent.

Model Predictive Control of the Current Profile and the Internal Energy of DIII-D Plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauret, M.; Wehner, W.; Schuster, E.

2015-11-01

For efficient and stable operation of tokamak plasmas it is important that the current density profile and the internal energy are jointly controlled by using the available heating and current-drive (H&CD) sources. The proposed approach is a version of nonlinear model predictive control in which the input set is restricted in size by the possible combinations of the H&CD on/off states. The controller uses real-time predictions over a receding-time horizon of both the current density profile (nonlinear partial differential equation) and the internal energy (nonlinear ordinary differential equation) evolutions. At every time instant the effect of every possible combination of H&CD sources on the current profile and internal energy is evaluated over the chosen time horizon. The combination that leads to the best result, which is assessed by a user-defined cost function, is then applied up until the next time instant. Simulations results based on a control-oriented transport code illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control method. Supported by the US DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698 & DE-SC0010661.

UAV Control on the Basis of 3D Landmark Bearing-Only Observations.

PubMed

Karpenko, Simon; Konovalenko, Ivan; Miller, Alexander; Miller, Boris; Nikolaev, Dmitry

2015-11-27

The article presents an approach to the control of a UAV on the basis of 3D landmark observations. The novelty of the work is the usage of the 3D RANSAC algorithm developed on the basis of the landmarks' position prediction with the aid of a modified Kalman-type filter. Modification of the filter based on the pseudo-measurements approach permits obtaining unbiased UAV position estimation with quadratic error characteristics. Modeling of UAV flight on the basis of the suggested algorithm shows good performance, even under significant external perturbations.

Jump resonant frequency islands in nonlinear feedback control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koenigsberg, W. D.; Dunn, J. C.

1975-01-01

A new type of jump resonance is predicted and observed in certain nonlinear feedback control systems. The new jump resonance characteristic is described as a 'frequency island' due to the fact that a portion of the input-output transfer characteristic is disjoint from the main body. The presence of such frequency islands was predicted by using a sinusoidal describing function characterization of the dynamics of an inertial gyro employing nonlinear ternary rebalance logic. While the general conditions under which such islands are possible has not been examined, a numerical approach is presented which can aid in establishing their presence. The existence of the frequency islands predicted for the ternary rebalanced gyro was confirmed by simulating the nonlinear system and measuring the transfer function.

The predictive influence of family and neighborhood assets on fighting and weapon carrying from mid- to late adolescence.

PubMed

Haegerich, Tamara M; Oman, Roy F; Vesely, Sara K; Aspy, Cheryl B; Tolma, Eleni L

2014-08-01

Using a developmental, social-ecological approach to understand the etiology of health-risk behavior and inform primary prevention efforts, we assess the predictive effects of family and neighborhood social processes on youth physical fighting and weapon carrying. Specifically, we focus on relationships among youth and their parents, family communication, parental monitoring, as well as sense of community and neighborhood informal social control, support, concerns, and disorder. This study advances knowledge through its investigation of family and neighborhood structural factors and social processes together, employment of longitudinal models that estimate effects over adolescent development, and use of self-report and observational measures. Data from 1,093 youth/parent pairs were analyzed from the Youth Assets Study using a Generalized Estimating Equation approach; family and neighborhood assets and risks were analyzed as time varying and lagged. Similar family assets affected physical fighting and weapon carrying, whereas different neighborhood social processes influenced the two forms of youth violence. Study findings have implications for the primary prevention of youth violence, including the use of family-based approaches that build relationships and parental monitoring skills and community-level change approaches that promote informal social control and reduce neighborhood concerns about safety.

A tuning algorithm for model predictive controllers based on genetic algorithms and fuzzy decision making.

PubMed

van der Lee, J H; Svrcek, W Y; Young, B R

2008-01-01

Model Predictive Control is a valuable tool for the process control engineer in a wide variety of applications. Because of this the structure of an MPC can vary dramatically from application to application. There have been a number of works dedicated to MPC tuning for specific cases. Since MPCs can differ significantly, this means that these tuning methods become inapplicable and a trial and error tuning approach must be used. This can be quite time consuming and can result in non-optimum tuning. In an attempt to resolve this, a generalized automated tuning algorithm for MPCs was developed. This approach is numerically based and combines a genetic algorithm with multi-objective fuzzy decision-making. The key advantages to this approach are that genetic algorithms are not problem specific and only need to be adapted to account for the number and ranges of tuning parameters for a given MPC. As well, multi-objective fuzzy decision-making can handle qualitative statements of what optimum control is, in addition to being able to use multiple inputs to determine tuning parameters that best match the desired results. This is particularly useful for multi-input, multi-output (MIMO) cases where the definition of "optimum" control is subject to the opinion of the control engineer tuning the system. A case study will be presented in order to illustrate the use of the tuning algorithm. This will include how different definitions of "optimum" control can arise, and how they are accounted for in the multi-objective decision making algorithm. The resulting tuning parameters from each of the definition sets will be compared, and in doing so show that the tuning parameters vary in order to meet each definition of optimum control, thus showing the generalized automated tuning algorithm approach for tuning MPCs is feasible.

Career Locus of Control and Career Success among Chinese Employees: A Multidimensional Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guan, Yanjun; Wang, Zhen; Dong, Zhilin; Liu, Yukun; Yue, Yumeng; Liu, Haiyang; Zhang, Yuqing; Zhou, Wenxia; Liu, Haihua

2013-01-01

The current research aimed to develop a multidimensional measure of career locus of control (LOC) and examine its predictive validity on objective and subjective career success among Chinese employees. Items of career LOC were generated based on literature review of the significant predictors of career success, as well as the open-ended responses…

Real-time and simultaneous control of artificial limbs based on pattern recognition algorithms.

PubMed

Ortiz-Catalan, Max; Håkansson, Bo; Brånemark, Rickard

2014-07-01

The prediction of simultaneous limb motions is a highly desirable feature for the control of artificial limbs. In this work, we investigate different classification strategies for individual and simultaneous movements based on pattern recognition of myoelectric signals. Our results suggest that any classifier can be potentially employed in the prediction of simultaneous movements if arranged in a distributed topology. On the other hand, classifiers inherently capable of simultaneous predictions, such as the multi-layer perceptron (MLP), were found to be more cost effective, as they can be successfully employed in their simplest form. In the prediction of individual movements, the one-vs-one (OVO) topology was found to improve classification accuracy across different classifiers and it was therefore used to benchmark the benefits of simultaneous control. As opposed to previous work reporting only offline accuracy, the classification performance and the resulting controllability are evaluated in real time using the motion test and target achievement control (TAC) test, respectively. We propose a simultaneous classification strategy based on MLP that outperformed a top classifier for individual movements (LDA-OVO), thus improving the state-of-the-art classification approach. Furthermore, all the presented classification strategies and data collected in this study are freely available in BioPatRec, an open source platform for the development of advanced prosthetic control strategies.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adigun, Babatunde John; Fensin, Michael Lorne; Galloway, Jack D.

Our burnup study examined the effect of a predicted critical control rod position on the nuclide predictability of several axial and radial locations within a 4×4 graphite moderated gas cooled reactor fuel cluster geometry. To achieve this, a control rod position estimator (CRPE) tool was developed within the framework of the linkage code Monteburns between the transport code MCNP and depletion code CINDER90, and four methodologies were proposed within the tool for maintaining criticality. Two of the proposed methods used an inverse multiplication approach - where the amount of fissile material in a set configuration is slowly altered until criticalitymore » is attained - in estimating the critical control rod position. Another method carried out several MCNP criticality calculations at different control rod positions, then used a linear fit to estimate the critical rod position. The final method used a second-order polynomial fit of several MCNP criticality calculations at different control rod positions to guess the critical rod position. The results showed that consistency in prediction of power densities as well as uranium and plutonium isotopics was mutual among methods within the CRPE tool that predicted critical position consistently well. Finall, while the CRPE tool is currently limited to manipulating a single control rod, future work could be geared toward implementing additional criticality search methodologies along with additional features.« less

Assessment of CTAS ETA prediction capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolender, Michael A.

1994-11-01

This report summarizes the work done to date in assessing the trajectory fidelity and estimated time of arrival (ETA) prediction capability of the NASA Ames Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS) software. The CTAS software suite is a series of computer programs designed to aid air traffic controllers in their tasks of safely scheduling the landing sequence of approaching aircraft. in particular, this report concerns the accuracy of the available measurements (e.g., position, altitude, etc.) that are input to the software, as well as the accuracy of the final data that is made available to the air traffic controllers.

A Theoretical and Experimental Analysis of the Outside World Perception Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wewerinke, P. H.

1978-01-01

The outside scene is often an important source of information for manual control tasks. Important examples of these are car driving and aircraft control. This paper deals with modelling this visual scene perception process on the basis of linear perspective geometry and the relative motion cues. Model predictions utilizing psychophysical threshold data from base-line experiments and literature of a variety of visual approach tasks are compared with experimental data. Both the performance and workload results illustrate that the model provides a meaningful description of the outside world perception process, with a useful predictive capability.

Tailored high-resolution numerical weather forecasts for energy efficient predictive building control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauch, V. J.; Gwerder, M.; Gyalistras, D.; Oldewurtel, F.; Schubiger, F.; Steiner, P.

2010-09-01

The high proportion of the total primary energy consumption by buildings has increased the public interest in the optimisation of buildings' operation and is also driving the development of novel control approaches for the indoor climate. In this context, the use of weather forecasts presents an interesting and - thanks to advances in information and predictive control technologies and the continuous improvement of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models - an increasingly attractive option for improved building control. Within the research project OptiControl (www.opticontrol.ethz.ch) predictive control strategies for a wide range of buildings, heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, and representative locations in Europe are being investigated with the aid of newly developed modelling and simulation tools. Grid point predictions for radiation, temperature and humidity of the high-resolution limited area NWP model COSMO-7 (see www.cosmo-model.org) and local measurements are used as disturbances and inputs into the building system. The control task considered consists in minimizing energy consumption whilst maintaining occupant comfort. In this presentation, we use the simulation-based OptiControl methodology to investigate the impact of COSMO-7 forecasts on the performance of predictive building control and the resulting energy savings. For this, we have selected building cases that were shown to benefit from a prediction horizon of up to 3 days and therefore, are particularly suitable for the use of numerical weather forecasts. We show that the controller performance is sensitive to the quality of the weather predictions, most importantly of the incident radiation on differently oriented façades. However, radiation is characterised by a high temporal and spatial variability in part caused by small scale and fast changing cloud formation and dissolution processes being only partially represented in the COSMO-7 grid point predictions. On the other hand, buildings are affected by particularly local weather conditions at the building site. To overcome this discrepancy, we make use of local measurements to statistically adapt the COSMO-7 model output to the meteorological conditions at the building. For this, we have developed a general correction algorithm that exploits systematic properties of the COSMO-7 prediction error and explicitly estimates the degree of temporal autocorrelation using online recursive estimation. The resulting corrected predictions are improved especially for the first few hours being the most crucial for the predictive controller and, ultimately for the reduction of primary energy consumption using predictive control. The use of numerical weather forecasts in predictive building automation is one example in a wide field of weather dependent advanced energy saving technologies. Our work particularly highlights the need for the development of specifically tailored weather forecast products by (statistical) postprocessing in order to meet the requirements of specific applications.

Satellite attitude prediction by multiple time scales method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Y. C.; Ramnath, R.

1975-01-01

An investigation is made of the problem of predicting the attitude of satellites under the influence of external disturbing torques. The attitude dynamics are first expressed in a perturbation formulation which is then solved by the multiple scales approach. The independent variable, time, is extended into new scales, fast, slow, etc., and the integration is carried out separately in the new variables. The theory is applied to two different satellite configurations, rigid body and dual spin, each of which may have an asymmetric mass distribution. The disturbing torques considered are gravity gradient and geomagnetic. Finally, as multiple time scales approach separates slow and fast behaviors of satellite attitude motion, this property is used for the design of an attitude control device. A nutation damping control loop, using the geomagnetic torque for an earth pointing dual spin satellite, is designed in terms of the slow equation.

Look at me, I'm happy and creative: The effect of impression management on behavior in social presence.

PubMed

Uziel, Liad

2010-12-01

The present research tested competing approaches to individual differences in impression management (as measured with social desirability scales) and their implication for behavior in social contexts. A defensiveness approach argues that impression management is a source of defensive self-presentation, which causes performance impairment in public social settings. The competing adjustment approach argues that impression management measures friendliness and self-control, which should bring about performance facilitation in public social settings. To decide between these approaches, two experiments utilized a social facilitation paradigm, whereby task performance was compared between an alone and a public condition. The results supported the predictions of the adjustment approach. Across different tasks, a high impression management score was associated with performance facilitation in social presence, expressed in greater creativity, positive implicit affect, and high self-control. The results reveal previously unnoticed constructive effects of impression management, supporting the reframing of the trait as reflecting interpersonally oriented self-control.

Weight-control behaviors and subsequent weight change among adolescents and young adult females123

PubMed Central

Haines, Jess; Rosner, Bernard; Willett, Walter C

2010-01-01

Background: Little is known about the effectiveness of behavioral strategies to prevent long-term weight gain among adolescents and young adults. Objective: The objective was to assess the relation of dietary and physical activity weight-control strategies, alone and together, with subsequent weight change. Design: This was a prospective study of 4456 female adolescents and young adults aged 14–22 y in the ongoing Growing Up Today Study. Weight-control behaviors, including dietary approaches and physical activity, were self-reported in 2001 and were used to predict weight change from 2001 to 2005. Results: In 2001–2002, 23.7% of female adolescents and young adults were trying to maintain their weight and another 54.4% were trying to lose weight. Approximately 25% used each of the following weight-control strategies: not eating snacks, following low-calorie or low-fat diets, and limiting portion sizes. In addition, 47.7% reported exercising at least occasionally for weight control. During 4 y of follow-up, participants gained an average of 3.3 kg. None of the dietary approaches to weight control predicted less weight change; however, females who exercised ≥5 d/wk gained significantly less weight than did their peers (−0.9 kg; 95% CI: −1.4, −0.4). The most successful strategy for weight-gain prevention among the females was to limit portion sizes (−1.9 kg; 95% CI: −2.6, −1.1) combined with frequent exercise. Conclusions: Our results suggest that physical activity is a necessary strategy for long-term weight control among adolescents and young adult females. Combining dietary weight-control approaches with physical activity is the most effective method for reducing weight gain. PMID:19889827

BVI induced vibration and noise alleviation by active and passive approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li

This dissertation describes the development of a comprehensive aeroelastic/aeroacoustic simulation capability for the modeling of vibration and noise in rotorcraft induced by blade-vortex interaction (BVI). Subsequently this capability is applied to study vibration and noise reduction, using active and passive control approaches. The active approach employed is the actively controlled partial span trailing edge flaps (ACF), implemented in single and dual, servo and plain flap configurations. The passive approach is based on varying the sweep and anhedral on the tip of the rotor. Two different modern helicopters are chosen as the baseline for the implementation of ACF approach, one resembling a four-bladed MBB BO-105 hingeless rotor and the other similar to a five-bladed MD-900 bearingless rotor. The structural model is based on a finite element approach capable of simulating composite helicopter blades with swept tips, and representing multiple load paths at the blade root which is a characteristic of bearingless rotors. An unsteady compressible aerodynamic model based on a rational function approximation (RFA) approach is combined with a free wake analysis which has been enhanced by improving the wake analysis resolution and modeling a dual vortex structure. These enhancements are important for capturing BVI effects. A method for predicting compressible unsteady blade surface pressure distribution on rotor blades has been developed, which is required by the acoustic analysis. A modified version of helicopter noise code WOPWOP with provisions for blade flexibility has been combined with the aeroelastic analysis to predict the BVI noise. Several variants of the higher harmonic control (HHC) algorithm have been applied for the active noise control, as well as the simultaneous vibration and noise control. Active control of BVI noise is accomplished using feedback from an onboard microphone. The simulation has been extensively validated against experimental data and other comprehensive rotorcraft codes, and overall good correlation is obtained. Subsequently, the effectiveness of the ACF approach for vibration and BVI noise reduction has been explored, using the two different helicopter configurations. Vibration reductions of up to 86% and 60% are shown for the hingeless and bearingless rotor, respectively. Noise reductions of up to 6dB and 3dB are also demonstrated for these two configurations. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

A fuzzy logic approach to control anaerobic digestion.

PubMed

Domnanovich, A M; Strik, D P; Zani, L; Pfeiffer, B; Karlovits, M; Braun, R; Holubar, P

2003-01-01

One of the goals of the EU-Project AMONCO (Advanced Prediction, Monitoring and Controlling of Anaerobic Digestion Process Behaviour towards Biogas Usage in Fuel Cells) is to create a control tool for the anaerobic digestion process, which predicts the volumetric organic loading rate (Bv) for the next day, to obtain a high biogas quality and production. The biogas should contain a high methane concentration (over 50%) and a low concentration of components toxic for fuel cells, e.g. hydrogen sulphide, siloxanes, ammonia and mercaptanes. For producing data to test the control tool, four 20 l anaerobic Continuously Stirred Tank Reactors (CSTR) are operated. For controlling two systems were investigated: a pure fuzzy logic system and a hybrid-system which contains a fuzzy based reactor condition calculation and a hierachial neural net in a cascade of optimisation algorithms.

Lithium-ion battery cell-level control using constrained model predictive control and equivalent circuit models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xavier, MA; Trimboli, MS

This paper introduces a novel application of model predictive control (MPC) to cell-level charging of a lithium-ion battery utilizing an equivalent circuit model of battery dynamics. The approach employs a modified form of the MPC algorithm that caters for direct feed-though signals in order to model near-instantaneous battery ohmic resistance. The implementation utilizes a 2nd-order equivalent circuit discrete-time state-space model based on actual cell parameters; the control methodology is used to compute a fast charging profile that respects input, output, and state constraints. Results show that MPC is well-suited to the dynamics of the battery control problem and further suggestmore » significant performance improvements might be achieved by extending the result to electrochemical models. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.« less

A novel single-parameter approach for forecasting algal blooms.

PubMed

Xiao, Xi; He, Junyu; Huang, Haomin; Miller, Todd R; Christakos, George; Reichwaldt, Elke S; Ghadouani, Anas; Lin, Shengpan; Xu, Xinhua; Shi, Jiyan

2017-01-01

Harmful algal blooms frequently occur globally, and forecasting could constitute an essential proactive strategy for bloom control. To decrease the cost of aquatic environmental monitoring and increase the accuracy of bloom forecasting, a novel single-parameter approach combining wavelet analysis with artificial neural networks (WNN) was developed and verified based on daily online monitoring datasets of algal density in the Siling Reservoir, China and Lake Winnebago, U.S.A. Firstly, a detailed modeling process was illustrated using the forecasting of cyanobacterial cell density in the Chinese reservoir as an example. Three WNN models occupying various prediction time intervals were optimized through model training using an early stopped training approach. All models performed well in fitting historical data and predicting the dynamics of cyanobacterial cell density, with the best model predicting cyanobacteria density one-day ahead (r = 0.986 and mean absolute error = 0.103 × 10 4  cells mL -1 ). Secondly, the potential of this novel approach was further confirmed by the precise predictions of algal biomass dynamics measured as chl a in both study sites, demonstrating its high performance in forecasting algal blooms, including cyanobacteria as well as other blooming species. Thirdly, the WNN model was compared to current algal forecasting methods (i.e. artificial neural networks, autoregressive integrated moving average model), and was found to be more accurate. In addition, the application of this novel single-parameter approach is cost effective as it requires only a buoy-mounted fluorescent probe, which is merely a fraction (∼15%) of the cost of a typical auto-monitoring system. As such, the newly developed approach presents a promising and cost-effective tool for the future prediction and management of harmful algal blooms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A prototype methodology combining surface-enhanced laser desorption/ionization protein chip technology and artificial neural network algorithms to predict the chemoresponsiveness of breast cancer cell lines exposed to Paclitaxel and Doxorubicin under in vitro conditions.

PubMed

Mian, Shahid; Ball, Graham; Hornbuckle, Jo; Holding, Finn; Carmichael, James; Ellis, Ian; Ali, Selman; Li, Geng; McArdle, Stephanie; Creaser, Colin; Rees, Robert

2003-09-01

An ability to predict the likelihood of cellular response towards particular chemotherapeutic agents based upon protein expression patterns could facilitate the identification of biological molecules with previously undefined roles in the process of chemoresistance/chemosensitivity, and if robust enough these patterns might also be exploited towards the development of novel predictive assays. To ascertain whether proteomic based molecular profiling in conjunction with artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms could be applied towards the specific recognition of phenotypic patterns between either control or drug treated and chemosensitive or chemoresistant cellular populations, a combined approach involving MALDI-TOF matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry, Ciphergen protein chip technology and ANN algorithms have been applied to specifically identify proteomic 'fingerprints' indicative of treatment regimen for chemosensitive (MCF-7, T47D) and chemoresistant (MCF-7/ADR) breast cancer cell lines following exposure to Doxorubicin or Paclitaxel. The results indicate that proteomic patterns can be identified by ANN algorithms to correctly assign 'class' for treatment regimen (e.g. control/drug treated or chemosensitive/chemoresistant) with a high degree of accuracy using boot-strap statistical validation techniques and that biomarker ion patterns indicative of response/non-response phenotypes are associated with MCF-7 and MCF-7/ADR cells exposed to Doxorubicin. We have also examined the predictive capability of this approach towards MCF-7 and T47D cells to ascertain whether prediction could be made based upon treatment regimen irrespective of cell lineage. Models were identified that could correctly assign class (control or Paclitaxel treatment) for 35/38 samples of an independent dataset. A similar level of predictive capability was also found (> 92%; n = 28) when proteomic patterns derived from the drug resistant cell line MCF-7/ADR were compared against those derived from MCF-7 and T47D as a model system of drug resistant and drug sensitive phenotypes. This approach might offer a potential methodology for predicting the biological behaviour of cancer cells towards particular chemotherapeutics and through protein isolation and sequence identification could result in the identification of biological molecules associated with chemosensitive/chemoresistance tumour phenotypes.

Identification Approach to Alleviate Effects of Unmeasured Heat Gains for MIMO Building Thermal Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cai, Jie; Kim, Donghun; Braun, James E.

It is important to have practical methods for constructing a good mathematical model for a building's thermal system for energy audits, retrofit analysis and advanced building controls, e.g. model predictive control. Identification approaches based on semi-physical model structures are popular in building science for those purposes. However conventional gray box identification approaches applied to thermal networks would fail when significant unmeasured heat gains present in estimation data. Although this situation is very common and practical, there has been little research to tackle this issue in building science. This paper presents an overall identification approach to alleviate influences of unmeasured disturbances,more » and hence to obtain improved gray-box building models. The approach was applied to an existing open space building and the performance is demonstrated.« less

Aperiodic Robust Model Predictive Control for Constrained Continuous-Time Nonlinear Systems: An Event-Triggered Approach.

PubMed

Liu, Changxin; Gao, Jian; Li, Huiping; Xu, Demin

2018-05-01

The event-triggered control is a promising solution to cyber-physical systems, such as networked control systems, multiagent systems, and large-scale intelligent systems. In this paper, we propose an event-triggered model predictive control (MPC) scheme for constrained continuous-time nonlinear systems with bounded disturbances. First, a time-varying tightened state constraint is computed to achieve robust constraint satisfaction, and an event-triggered scheduling strategy is designed in the framework of dual-mode MPC. Second, the sufficient conditions for ensuring feasibility and closed-loop robust stability are developed, respectively. We show that robust stability can be ensured and communication load can be reduced with the proposed MPC algorithm. Finally, numerical simulations and comparison studies are performed to verify the theoretical results.

Artificial neural network implementation of a near-ideal error prediction controller

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcvey, Eugene S.; Taylor, Lynore Denise

1992-01-01

A theory has been developed at the University of Virginia which explains the effects of including an ideal predictor in the forward loop of a linear error-sampled system. It has been shown that the presence of this ideal predictor tends to stabilize the class of systems considered. A prediction controller is merely a system which anticipates a signal or part of a signal before it actually occurs. It is understood that an exact prediction controller is physically unrealizable. However, in systems where the input tends to be repetitive or limited, (i.e., not random) near ideal prediction is possible. In order for the controller to act as a stability compensator, the predictor must be designed in a way that allows it to learn the expected error response of the system. In this way, an unstable system will become stable by including the predicted error in the system transfer function. Previous and current prediction controller include pattern recognition developments and fast-time simulation which are applicable to the analysis of linear sampled data type systems. The use of pattern recognition techniques, along with a template matching scheme, has been proposed as one realizable type of near-ideal prediction. Since many, if not most, systems are repeatedly subjected to similar inputs, it was proposed that an adaptive mechanism be used to 'learn' the correct predicted error response. Once the system has learned the response of all the expected inputs, it is necessary only to recognize the type of input with a template matching mechanism and then to use the correct predicted error to drive the system. Suggested here is an alternate approach to the realization of a near-ideal error prediction controller, one designed using Neural Networks. Neural Networks are good at recognizing patterns such as system responses, and the back-propagation architecture makes use of a template matching scheme. In using this type of error prediction, it is assumed that the system error responses be known for a particular input and modeled plant. These responses are used in the error prediction controller. An analysis was done on the general dynamic behavior that results from including a digital error predictor in a control loop and these were compared to those including the near-ideal Neural Network error predictor. This analysis was done for a second and third order system.

A support vector machine based control application to the experimental three-tank system.

PubMed

Iplikci, Serdar

2010-07-01

This paper presents a support vector machine (SVM) approach to generalized predictive control (GPC) of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) nonlinear systems. The possession of higher generalization potential and at the same time avoidance of getting stuck into the local minima have motivated us to employ SVM algorithms for modeling MIMO systems. Based on the SVM model, detailed and compact formulations for calculating predictions and gradient information, which are used in the computation of the optimal control action, are given in the paper. The proposed MIMO SVM-based GPC method has been verified on an experimental three-tank liquid level control system. Experimental results have shown that the proposed method can handle the control task successfully for different reference trajectories. Moreover, a detailed discussion on data gathering, model selection and effects of the control parameters have been given in this paper. 2010 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health-aware Model Predictive Control of Pasteurization Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi Pour, Fatemeh; Puig, Vicenç; Ocampo-Martinez, Carlos

2017-01-01

In order to optimize the trade-off between components life and energy consumption, the integration of a system health management and control modules is required. This paper proposes the integration of model predictive control (MPC) with a fatigue estimation approach that minimizes the damage of the components of a pasteurization plant. The fatigue estimation is assessed with the rainflow counting algorithm. Using data from this algorithm, a simplified model that characterizes the health of the system is developed and integrated with MPC. The MPC controller objective is modified by adding an extra criterion that takes into account the accumulated damage. But, a steady-state offset is created by adding this extra criterion. Finally, by including an integral action in the MPC controller, the steady-state error for regulation purpose is eliminated. The proposed control scheme is validated in simulation using a simulator of a utility-scale pasteurization plant.

Summary of the Sixth Persh Workshop: Corrosion Policy Guiding Science and Technology

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

mitigating corrosion. Corrosion affects military readiness, so corrosion prevention and control (CPC) have a high priority for the DOD since CPC is a...resulting in high -cost repairs. Corrosion mitigation is thus a key cost-effective approach for system maintainability and reduced life cycle costs. The... treatments . • Develop corrosion databases and corrosion models for predictive evaluation. Testing methods for realistic prediction of performance

Fiber Optic Wing Shape Sensing on NASA's Ikhana UAV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richards, Lance; Parker, Allen R.; Ko, William L.; Piazza, Anthony

2008-01-01

This document discusses the development of fiber optic wing shape sensing on NASA's Ikhana vehicle. The Dryden Flight Research Center's Aerostructures Branch initiated fiber-optic instrumentation development efforts in the mid-1990s. Motivated by a failure to control wing dihedral resulting in a mishap with the Helios aircraft, new wing displacement techniques were developed. Research objectives for Ikhana included validating fiber optic sensor measurements and real-time wing shape sensing predictions; the validation of fiber optic mathematical models and design tools; assessing technical viability and, if applicable, developing methodology and approaches to incorporate wing shape measurements within the vehicle flight control system; and, developing and flight validating approaches to perform active wing shape control using conventional control surfaces and active material concepts.

Neuroscientific Model of Motivational Process

PubMed Central

Kim, Sung-il

2013-01-01

Considering the neuroscientific findings on reward, learning, value, decision-making, and cognitive control, motivation can be parsed into three sub processes, a process of generating motivation, a process of maintaining motivation, and a process of regulating motivation. I propose a tentative neuroscientific model of motivational processes which consists of three distinct but continuous sub processes, namely reward-driven approach, value-based decision-making, and goal-directed control. Reward-driven approach is the process in which motivation is generated by reward anticipation and selective approach behaviors toward reward. This process recruits the ventral striatum (reward area) in which basic stimulus-action association is formed, and is classified as an automatic motivation to which relatively less attention is assigned. By contrast, value-based decision-making is the process of evaluating various outcomes of actions, learning through positive prediction error, and calculating the value continuously. The striatum and the orbitofrontal cortex (valuation area) play crucial roles in sustaining motivation. Lastly, the goal-directed control is the process of regulating motivation through cognitive control to achieve goals. This consciously controlled motivation is associated with higher-level cognitive functions such as planning, retaining the goal, monitoring the performance, and regulating action. The anterior cingulate cortex (attention area) and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (cognitive control area) are the main neural circuits related to regulation of motivation. These three sub processes interact with each other by sending reward prediction error signals through dopaminergic pathway from the striatum and to the prefrontal cortex. The neuroscientific model of motivational process suggests several educational implications with regard to the generation, maintenance, and regulation of motivation to learn in the learning environment. PMID:23459598

Neuroscientific model of motivational process.

PubMed

Kim, Sung-Il

2013-01-01

Considering the neuroscientific findings on reward, learning, value, decision-making, and cognitive control, motivation can be parsed into three sub processes, a process of generating motivation, a process of maintaining motivation, and a process of regulating motivation. I propose a tentative neuroscientific model of motivational processes which consists of three distinct but continuous sub processes, namely reward-driven approach, value-based decision-making, and goal-directed control. Reward-driven approach is the process in which motivation is generated by reward anticipation and selective approach behaviors toward reward. This process recruits the ventral striatum (reward area) in which basic stimulus-action association is formed, and is classified as an automatic motivation to which relatively less attention is assigned. By contrast, value-based decision-making is the process of evaluating various outcomes of actions, learning through positive prediction error, and calculating the value continuously. The striatum and the orbitofrontal cortex (valuation area) play crucial roles in sustaining motivation. Lastly, the goal-directed control is the process of regulating motivation through cognitive control to achieve goals. This consciously controlled motivation is associated with higher-level cognitive functions such as planning, retaining the goal, monitoring the performance, and regulating action. The anterior cingulate cortex (attention area) and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (cognitive control area) are the main neural circuits related to regulation of motivation. These three sub processes interact with each other by sending reward prediction error signals through dopaminergic pathway from the striatum and to the prefrontal cortex. The neuroscientific model of motivational process suggests several educational implications with regard to the generation, maintenance, and regulation of motivation to learn in the learning environment.

Maintaining a Critical Spectra within Monteburns for a Gas-Cooled Reactor Array by Way of Control Rod Manipulation

DOE PAGES

Adigun, Babatunde John; Fensin, Michael Lorne; Galloway, Jack D.; ...

2016-10-01

Our burnup study examined the effect of a predicted critical control rod position on the nuclide predictability of several axial and radial locations within a 4×4 graphite moderated gas cooled reactor fuel cluster geometry. To achieve this, a control rod position estimator (CRPE) tool was developed within the framework of the linkage code Monteburns between the transport code MCNP and depletion code CINDER90, and four methodologies were proposed within the tool for maintaining criticality. Two of the proposed methods used an inverse multiplication approach - where the amount of fissile material in a set configuration is slowly altered until criticalitymore » is attained - in estimating the critical control rod position. Another method carried out several MCNP criticality calculations at different control rod positions, then used a linear fit to estimate the critical rod position. The final method used a second-order polynomial fit of several MCNP criticality calculations at different control rod positions to guess the critical rod position. The results showed that consistency in prediction of power densities as well as uranium and plutonium isotopics was mutual among methods within the CRPE tool that predicted critical position consistently well. Finall, while the CRPE tool is currently limited to manipulating a single control rod, future work could be geared toward implementing additional criticality search methodologies along with additional features.« less

Inflight Characterization of the Cassini Spacecraft Propellant Slosh and Structural Frequencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Allan Y.; Stupik, Joan

2015-01-01

While there has been extensive theoretical and analytical research regarding the characterization of spacecraft propellant slosh and structural frequencies, there have been limited studies to compare the analytical predictions with measured flight data. This paper uses flight telemetry from the Cassini spacecraft to get estimates of high-g propellant slosh frequencies and the magnetometer boom frequency characteristics, and compares these values with those predicted by theoretical works. Most Cassini attitude control data are available at a telemetry frequency of 0.5 Hz. Moreover, liquid sloshing is attenuated by propellant management device and attitude controllers. Identification of slosh and structural frequency are made on a best-effort basis. This paper reviews the analytical approaches that were used to predict the Cassini propellant slosh frequencies. The predicted frequencies are then compared with those estimated using telemetry from selected Cassini burns where propellant sloshing was observed (such as the Saturn Orbit Insertion burn).

Application of linear regression analysis in accuracy assessment of rolling force calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poliak, E. I.; Shim, M. K.; Kim, G. S.; Choo, W. Y.

1998-10-01

Efficient operation of the computational models employed in process control systems require periodical assessment of the accuracy of their predictions. Linear regression is proposed as a tool which allows separate systematic and random prediction errors from those related to measurements. A quantitative characteristic of the model predictive ability is introduced in addition to standard statistical tests for model adequacy. Rolling force calculations are considered as an example for the application. However, the outlined approach can be used to assess the performance of any computational model.

Comparative genomics of metabolic capacities of regulons controlled by cis-regulatory RNA motifs in bacteria.

PubMed

Sun, Eric I; Leyn, Semen A; Kazanov, Marat D; Saier, Milton H; Novichkov, Pavel S; Rodionov, Dmitry A

2013-09-02

In silico comparative genomics approaches have been efficiently used for functional prediction and reconstruction of metabolic and regulatory networks. Riboswitches are metabolite-sensing structures often found in bacterial mRNA leaders controlling gene expression on transcriptional or translational levels.An increasing number of riboswitches and other cis-regulatory RNAs have been recently classified into numerous RNA families in the Rfam database. High conservation of these RNA motifs provides a unique advantage for their genomic identification and comparative analysis. A comparative genomics approach implemented in the RegPredict tool was used for reconstruction and functional annotation of regulons controlled by RNAs from 43 Rfam families in diverse taxonomic groups of Bacteria. The inferred regulons include ~5200 cis-regulatory RNAs and more than 12000 target genes in 255 microbial genomes. All predicted RNA-regulated genes were classified into specific and overall functional categories. Analysis of taxonomic distribution of these categories allowed us to establish major functional preferences for each analyzed cis-regulatory RNA motif family. Overall, most RNA motif regulons showed predictable functional content in accordance with their experimentally established effector ligands. Our results suggest that some RNA motifs (including thiamin pyrophosphate and cobalamin riboswitches that control the cofactor metabolism) are widespread and likely originated from the last common ancestor of all bacteria. However, many more analyzed RNA motifs are restricted to a narrow taxonomic group of bacteria and likely represent more recent evolutionary innovations. The reconstructed regulatory networks for major known RNA motifs substantially expand the existing knowledge of transcriptional regulation in bacteria. The inferred regulons can be used for genetic experiments, functional annotations of genes, metabolic reconstruction and evolutionary analysis. The obtained genome-wide collection of reference RNA motif regulons is available in the RegPrecise database (http://regprecise.lbl.gov/).

Integration of vehicle yaw stabilisation and rollover prevention through nonlinear hierarchical control allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alberding, Matthäus B.; Tjønnås, Johannes; Johansen, Tor A.

2014-12-01

This work presents an approach to rollover prevention that takes advantage of the modular structure and optimisation properties of the control allocation paradigm. It eliminates the need for a stabilising roll controller by introducing rollover prevention as a constraint on the control allocation problem. The major advantage of this approach is the control authority margin that remains with a high-level controller even during interventions for rollover prevention. In this work, the high-level control is assigned to a yaw stabilising controller. It could be replaced by any other controller. The constraint for rollover prevention could be replaced by or extended to different control objectives. This work uses differential braking for actuation. The use of additional or different actuators is possible. The developed control algorithm is computationally efficient and suitable for low-cost automotive electronic control units. The predictive design of the rollover prevention constraint does not require any sensor equipment in addition to the yaw controller. The method is validated using an industrial multi-body vehicle simulation environment.

Substance Use Progression from Adolescence to Early Adulthood: Effortful Control in the Context of Friendship Influence and Early-Onset Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piehler, Timothy F.; Veronneau, Marie-Helene; Dishion, Thomas J.

2012-01-01

In a sample of 998 ethnically diverse adolescents, a multiagent, multimethod approach to the measurement of adolescent effortful control, adolescent substance use, and friendship influence was used to predict escalations to early-adult tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana use by ages 22-23. Structural equation modeling revealed that adolescent…

Peak-Seeking Optimization of Trim for Reduced Fuel Consumption: Architecture and Performance Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaefer, Jacob; Brown, Nelson

2013-01-01

A peak-seeking control approach for real-time trim configuration optimization for reduced fuel consumption has been developed by researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Dryden Flight Research Center to address the goals of the NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation project to reduce fuel burn and emissions. The peak-seeking control approach is based on a steepest-descent algorithm using a time-varying Kalman filter to estimate the gradient of a performance function of fuel flow versus control surface positions. In real-time operation, deflections of symmetric ailerons, trailing-edge flaps, and leading-edge flaps of an FA-18 airplane (McDonnell Douglas, now The Boeing Company, Chicago, Illinois) are controlled for optimization of fuel flow. This presentation presents the design and integration of this peak-seeking controller on a modified NASA FA-18 airplane with research flight control computers. A research flight was performed to collect data to build a realistic model of the performance function and characterize measurement noise. This model was then implemented into a nonlinear six-degree-of-freedom FA-18 simulation along with the peak-seeking control algorithm. With the goal of eventual flight tests, the algorithm was first evaluated in the improved simulation environment. Results from the simulation predict good convergence on minimum fuel flow with a 2.5-percent reduction in fuel flow relative to the baseline trim of the aircraft.

Peak-Seeking Optimization of Trim for Reduced Fuel Consumption: Architecture and Performance Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaefer, Jacob; Brown, Nelson A.

2013-01-01

A peak-seeking control approach for real-time trim configuration optimization for reduced fuel consumption has been developed by researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Dryden Flight Research Center to address the goals of the NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation project to reduce fuel burn and emissions. The peak-seeking control approach is based on a steepest-descent algorithm using a time-varying Kalman filter to estimate the gradient of a performance function of fuel flow versus control surface positions. In real-time operation, deflections of symmetric ailerons, trailing-edge flaps, and leading-edge flaps of an F/A-18 airplane (McDonnell Douglas, now The Boeing Company, Chicago, Illinois) are controlled for optimization of fuel flow. This paper presents the design and integration of this peak-seeking controller on a modified NASA F/A-18 airplane with research flight control computers. A research flight was performed to collect data to build a realistic model of the performance function and characterize measurement noise. This model was then implemented into a nonlinear six-degree-of-freedom F/A-18 simulation along with the peak-seeking control algorithm. With the goal of eventual flight tests, the algorithm was first evaluated in the improved simulation environment. Results from the simulation predict good convergence on minimum fuel flow with a 2.5-percent reduction in fuel flow relative to the baseline trim of the aircraft.

A comparison of two different approaches to characterizing the heterogeneity within antisocial behavior: age-of-onset versus behavioral sub-types.

PubMed

Burt, S Alexandra; Hopwood, Christopher J

2010-04-01

There are two common approaches to sub-typing the well-documented heterogeneity within antisocial behavior: age-of-onset (i.e., child-onset versus adolescent-onset; see Moffitt, 1993) and behavioral (i.e., physical aggression versus nonaggressive rule-breaking). These approaches appear to be intimately connected, such that aggression is particularly characteristic of child-onset antisocial behavior whereas rule-breaking is largely specific to adolescent-onset antisocial behavior (see Moffitt, 2003). Even so, it remains unclear which approach, if either, substantively drives these different manifestations of antisocial behavior. We examined this question in a sample of 1,726 adults in treatment for alcoholism, evaluating the two approaches in regards to their prediction of anger and alcohol dependency. Although age-of-onset predicted both outcomes when analyzed alone, these associations fully dissipated once we controlled for aggression and rule-breaking. Such findings suggest that the behavioral sub-types may prove to be a stronger predictor of antisocial behavior outcomes than is age-of-onset.

Modeling a full-scale primary sedimentation tank using artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Gamal El-Din, A; Smith, D W

2002-05-01

Modeling the performance of full-scale primary sedimentation tanks has been commonly done using regression-based models, which are empirical relationships derived strictly from observed daily average influent and effluent data. Another approach to model a sedimentation tank is using a hydraulic efficiency model that utilizes tracer studies to characterize the performance of model sedimentation tanks based on eddy diffusion. However, the use of hydraulic efficiency models to predict the dynamic behavior of a full-scale sedimentation tank is very difficult as the development of such models has been done using controlled studies of model tanks. In this paper, another type of model, namely artificial neural network modeling approach, is used to predict the dynamic response of a full-scale primary sedimentation tank. The neuralmodel consists of two separate networks, one uses flow and influent total suspended solids data in order to predict the effluent total suspended solids from the tank, and the other makes predictions of the effluent chemical oxygen demand using data of the flow and influent chemical oxygen demand as inputs. An extensive sampling program was conducted in order to collect a data set to be used in training and validating the networks. A systematic approach was used in the building process of the model which allowed the identification of a parsimonious neural model that is able to learn (and not memorize) from past data and generalize very well to unseen data that were used to validate the model. Theresults seem very promising. The potential of using the model as part of a real-time process control system isalso discussed.

Volumetric brain magnetic resonance imaging predicts functioning in bipolar disorder: A machine learning approach.

PubMed

Sartori, Juliana M; Reckziegel, Ramiro; Passos, Ives Cavalcante; Czepielewski, Leticia S; Fijtman, Adam; Sodré, Leonardo A; Massuda, Raffael; Goi, Pedro D; Vianna-Sulzbach, Miréia; Cardoso, Taiane de Azevedo; Kapczinski, Flávio; Mwangi, Benson; Gama, Clarissa S

2018-08-01

Neuroimaging studies have been steadily explored in Bipolar Disorder (BD) in the last decades. Neuroanatomical changes tend to be more pronounced in patients with repeated episodes. Although the role of such changes in cognition and memory is well established, daily-life functioning impairments bulge among the consequences of the proposed progression. The objective of this study was to analyze MRI volumetric modifications in BD and healthy controls (HC) as possible predictors of daily-life functioning through a machine learning approach. Ninety-four participants (35 DSM-IV BD type I and 59 HC) underwent clinical and functioning assessments, and structural MRI. Functioning was assessed using the Functioning Assessment Short Test (FAST). The machine learning analysis was used to identify possible candidates of regional brain volumes that could predict functioning status, through a support vector regression algorithm. Patients with BD and HC did not differ in age, education and marital status. There were significant differences between groups in gender, BMI, FAST score, and employment status. There was significant correlation between observed and predicted FAST score for patients with BD, but not for controls. According to the model, the brain structures volumes that could predict FAST scores were: left superior frontal cortex, left rostral medial frontal cortex, right white matter total volume and right lateral ventricle volume. The machine learning approach demonstrated that brain volume changes in MRI were predictors of FAST score in patients with BD and could identify specific brain areas related to functioning impairment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

BigFoot, a program to reduce risk for indirect drive laser fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Cliff

2016-10-01

The conventional approach to inertial confinement fusion (ICF) is to maximize compressibility, or, total areal density. To achieve high convergence (40), the laser pulse is shaped to launch a weak first shock, which is followed in turn by 2-3 stronger shocks. Importantly, this has an outsized effect on integrated target physics, as the time it takes the shocks to transit the shell is related to hohlraum wall motion and filling, and can contribute to difficulties achieving an implosion that is fast, tunable, and/or predictable. At its outset, this approach attempts to predict the tradeoff in capsule and hohlraum physics in a case that is challenging, and assumes the hotspot can still reach the temperature and density necessary to self-heat (4-5 keV and 0.1-0.2 g/cm2, respectively). Here, we consider an alternate route to fusion ignition, for which the benefits of predictability, control, and coupling could exceed the benefits of convergence. In this approach we avoid uncertainty, and instead, seek a target that is predictable. To simplify hohlraum physics and limit wall motion we keep the implosion time short (6-7 ns), and design the target to avoid laser-plasma instabilities. Whereas the previous focus was on density, it is now on making a 1D hotspot at low convergence (20) that is robust with respect to alpha heating (5-6 keV, and 0.2-0.3 g/cm2) . At present, we estimate the tradeoff between convergence and control is relatively flat, and advantages in coupling enable high velocity (450-500 um/ns) and high yield (1E17). Were the approach successful, we believe it could reduce barriers to progress, as further improvements could be made with small, incremental increases in areal density. Details regarding the ``BigFoot'' platform and pulse are reported, as well as initial experiments. Work that could enable additional improvements in laser power, laser control, and capsule stability will also be discussed. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

A Decade of Genetic and Metabolomic Contributions to Type 2 Diabetes Risk Prediction

PubMed Central

Merino, Jordi; Leong, Aaron; Meigs, James B.

2018-01-01

Purpose of Review The purpose of this review was to summarize and reflect on advances over the past decade in human genetic and metabolomic discovery with particular focus on their contributions to type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk prediction. Recent Findings In the past 10 years, a combination of advances in genotyping efficiency, metabolomic profiling, bio-informatics approaches, and international collaboration have moved T2D genetics and metabolomics from a state of frustration to an abundance of new knowledge. Summary Efforts to control and prevent T2D have failed to stop this global epidemic. New approaches are needed, and although neither genetic nor metabolomic profiling yet have a clear clinical role, the rapid pace of accumulating knowledge offers the possibility for “multi-omic” prediction to improve health. PMID:29103096

Profile analysis and prediction of tissue-specific CpG island methylation classes

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The computational prediction of DNA methylation has become an important topic in the recent years due to its role in the epigenetic control of normal and cancer-related processes. While previous prediction approaches focused merely on differences between methylated and unmethylated DNA sequences, recent experimental results have shown the presence of much more complex patterns of methylation across tissues and time in the human genome. These patterns are only partially described by a binary model of DNA methylation. In this work we propose a novel approach, based on profile analysis of tissue-specific methylation that uncovers significant differences in the sequences of CpG islands (CGIs) that predispose them to a tissue- specific methylation pattern. Results We defined CGI methylation profiles that separate not only between constitutively methylated and unmethylated CGIs, but also identify CGIs showing a differential degree of methylation across tissues and cell-types or a lack of methylation exclusively in sperm. These profiles are clearly distinguished by a number of CGI attributes including their evolutionary conservation, their significance, as well as the evolutionary evidence of prior methylation. Additionally, we assess profile functionality with respect to the different compartments of protein coding genes and their possible use in the prediction of DNA methylation. Conclusion Our approach provides new insights into the biological features that determine if a CGI has a functional role in the epigenetic control of gene expression and the features associated with CGI methylation susceptibility. Moreover, we show that the ability to predict CGI methylation is based primarily on the quality of the biological information used and the relationships uncovered between different sources of knowledge. The strategy presented here is able to predict, besides the constitutively methylated and unmethylated classes, two more tissue specific methylation classes conserving the accuracy provided by leading binary methylation classification methods. PMID:19383127

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Flight Test Approval Process and Its Implications: A Methodological Approach to Capture and Evaluate Hidden Costs and Value in the Overall Process

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-22

world’s first powered and controlled flying machine. Numerous flight designs and tests were done by scientists, engineers, and flight enthusiasts...conceptual flight and preliminary designs before they could control the craft with three-axis control and the correct airfoil design . These pioneers...analysis support. Although wind tunnel testing can provide data to predict and develop control surface designs , few SUAV operators opt to utilize wind

M-MRAC Backstepping for Systems with Unknown Virtual Control Coefficients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stepanyan, Vahram; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje

2015-01-01

The paper presents an over-parametrization free certainty equivalence state feedback backstepping adaptive control design method for systems of any relative degree with unmatched uncertainties and unknown virtual control coefficients. It uses a fast prediction model to estimate the unknown parameters, which is independent of the control design. It is shown that the system's input and output tracking errors can be systematically decreased by the proper choice of the design parameters. The benefits of the approach are demonstrated in numerical simulations.

Fuel conservation through active control of rotor clearances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beitler, R. S.; Saunders, A. A.; Wanger, R. P.

1980-01-01

Under the NASA-sponsored Energy Efficient Engine (EEE) Project, technology is being developed which will significantly reduce the fuel consumption of turbofan engines for subsonic transport aircraft. One technology concept being pursued is active control of rotor tip clearances. Attention is given to rotor tip clearance considerations and an overview of preliminary study results as well as the General Electric EEE clearance control approach is presented. Finally, potential fuel savings with active control of rotor clearances for a typical EEE mission are predicted.

Design, implementation and control of a magnetic levitation device

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shameli, Ehsan

Magnetic levitation technology has shown a great deal of promise for micromanipulation tasks. Due to the lack of mechanical contact, magnetic levitation systems are free of problems caused by friction, wear, sealing and lubrication. These advantages have made magnetic levitation systems a great candidate for clean room applications. In this thesis, a new large gap magnetic levitation system is designed, developed and successfully tested. The system is capable of levitating a 6.5(gr) permanent magnet in 3D space with an air gap of approximately 50(cm) with the traveling range of 20x20x30 mm3. The overall positioning accuracy of the system is 60mum. With the aid of finite elements method, an optimal geometry for the magnetic stator is proposed. Also, an energy optimization approach is utilized in the design of the electromagnets. In order to facilitate the design of various controllers for the system, a mathematical model of the magnetic force experienced by the levitated object is obtained. The dynamic magnetic force model is determined experimentally using frequency response system identification. The response of the system components including the power amplifiers, and position measurement system are also considered in the development of the force model. The force model is then employed in the controller design for the magnetic levitation device. Through a modular approach, the controller design for the 3D positioning system is started with the controller design for the vertical direction, i.e. z, and then followed by the controller design in the horizontal directions, i.e. x and y. For the vertical direction, several controllers such as PID, feed forward and feedback linearization are designed and their performances are compared. Also a control command conditioning method is introduced as a solution to increase the control performance and the results of the proposed controller are compared with the other designs. Experimental results showed that for the magnetic levitation system, the feedback linearization controller has the shortest settling time and is capable of reducing the positioning error to RMS value of 11.56mum. The force model was also utilized in the design of a model reference adaptive feedback linearization (MRAFL) controller for the z direction. For this case, the levitated object is a small microrobot equipped with a remote controlled gripper weighting approximately 28(gr). Experimental results showed that the MRAFL controller enables the micro-robot to pick up and transport a payload as heavy as 30% of its own weight without a considerable effect on its positioning accuracy. In the presence of the payload, the MRAFL controller resulted in a RMS positioning error of 8microm compared with 27.9mum of the regular feedback linearization controller. For the horizontal position control of the system, a mathematical formula for distributing the electric currents to the multiple electromagnets of the system was proposed and a PID control approach was implemented to control the position of the levitated object in the xy-plane. The control system was experimentally tested in tracking circular and spiral trajectories with overall positioning accuracy of 60mum. Also, a new mathematical approach is presented for the prediction of magnetic field distribution in the horizontal direction. The proposed approach is named the pivot point method and is capable of predicting the two dimensional position of the levitated object in a given vertical plane for an arbitrary current distribution in the electromagnets of the levitation system. Experimental results showed that the proposed method is capable of predicting the location of the levitated object with less than 10% error.

Predicting stability and change in loneliness in later life

PubMed Central

Newall, Nancy E. G.; Chipperfield, Judith G.; Bailis, Daniel S.

2016-01-01

This study examined potential discriminators of groups of older adults showing different patterns of stability or change in loneliness over 5 years: those who became lonely, overcame loneliness, were persistently lonely, and were persistently not lonely. Discriminant function analysis results showed that the persistently lonely, compared with the persistently not lonely, were more often living alone, widowed, and experiencing poorer health and perceived control. Moreover, changes in living arrangements and perceived control predicted loneliness change. In conclusion, perceiving that one is able to meet social needs is a predictor of loneliness and loneliness change and appears to be more important than people’s friendships. Because the predictors were better able to predict entry into loneliness, results point to the promise of prevention approaches to loneliness interventions. PMID:27867246

Estimating Controller Intervention Probabilities for Optimized Profile Descent Arrivals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyn, Larry A.; Erzberger, Heinz; Huynh, Phu V.

2011-01-01

Simulations of arrival traffic at Dallas/Fort-Worth and Denver airports were conducted to evaluate incorporating scheduling and separation constraints into advisories that define continuous descent approaches. The goal was to reduce the number of controller interventions required to ensure flights maintain minimum separation distances of 5 nmi horizontally and 1000 ft vertically. It was shown that simply incorporating arrival meter fix crossing-time constraints into the advisory generation could eliminate over half of the all predicted separation violations and more than 80% of the predicted violations between two arrival flights. Predicted separation violations between arrivals and non-arrivals were 32% of all predicted separation violations at Denver and 41% at Dallas/Fort-Worth. A probabilistic analysis of meter fix crossing-time errors is included which shows that some controller interventions will still be required even when the predicted crossing-times of the advisories are set to add a 1 or 2 nmi buffer above the minimum in-trail separation of 5 nmi. The 2 nmi buffer was shown to increase average flight delays by up to 30 sec when compared to the 1 nmi buffer, but it only resulted in a maximum decrease in average arrival throughput of one flight per hour.

Piloted Simulation of a Model-Predictive Automated Recovery System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, James (Yuan); Litt, Jonathan; Sowers, T. Shane; Owens, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei

2014-01-01

This presentation describes a model-predictive automatic recovery system for aircraft on the verge of a loss-of-control situation. The system determines when it must intervene to prevent an imminent accident, resulting from a poor approach. It estimates the altitude loss that would result from a go-around maneuver at the current flight condition. If the loss is projected to violate a minimum altitude threshold, the maneuver is automatically triggered. The system deactivates to allow landing once several criteria are met. Piloted flight simulator evaluation showed the system to provide effective envelope protection during extremely unsafe landing attempts. The results demonstrate how flight and propulsion control can be integrated to recover control of the vehicle automatically and prevent a potential catastrophe.

Supervising Remote Humanoids Across Intermediate Time Delay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hambuchen, Kimberly; Bluethmann, William; Goza, Michael; Ambrose, Robert; Rabe, Kenneth; Allan, Mark

2006-01-01

The President's Vision for Space Exploration, laid out in 2004, relies heavily upon robotic exploration of the lunar surface in early phases of the program. Prior to the arrival of astronauts on the lunar surface, these robots will be required to be controlled across space and time, posing a considerable challenge for traditional telepresence techniques. Because time delays will be measured in seconds, not minutes as is the case for Mars Exploration, uploading the plan for a day seems excessive. An approach for controlling humanoids under intermediate time delay is presented. This approach uses software running within a ground control cockpit to predict an immersed robot supervisor's motions which the remote humanoid autonomously executes. Initial results are presented.

Status and trends in active control technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rediess, H. A.; Szalai, K. J.

1975-01-01

The emergence of highly reliable fly-by-wire flight control systems makes it possible to consider a strong reliance on automatic control systems in the design optimization of future aircraft. This design philosophy has been referred to as the control configured vehicle approach or the application of active control technology. Several studies and flight tests sponsored by the Air Force and NASA have demonstrated the potential benefits of control configured vehicles and active control technology. The present status and trends of active control technology are reviewed and the impact it will have on aircraft designs, design techniques, and the designer is predicted.

Machine learning and predictive data analytics enabling metrology and process control in IC fabrication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Narender; Zhang, Yunlin; Wall, Donald; Dirahoui, Bachir; Bailey, Todd C.

2015-03-01

Integrate circuit (IC) technology is going through multiple changes in terms of patterning techniques (multiple patterning, EUV and DSA), device architectures (FinFET, nanowire, graphene) and patterning scale (few nanometers). These changes require tight controls on processes and measurements to achieve the required device performance, and challenge the metrology and process control in terms of capability and quality. Multivariate data with complex nonlinear trends and correlations generally cannot be described well by mathematical or parametric models but can be relatively easily learned by computing machines and used to predict or extrapolate. This paper introduces the predictive metrology approach which has been applied to three different applications. Machine learning and predictive analytics have been leveraged to accurately predict dimensions of EUV resist patterns down to 18 nm half pitch leveraging resist shrinkage patterns. These patterns could not be directly and accurately measured due to metrology tool limitations. Machine learning has also been applied to predict the electrical performance early in the process pipeline for deep trench capacitance and metal line resistance. As the wafer goes through various processes its associated cost multiplies. It may take days to weeks to get the electrical performance readout. Predicting the electrical performance early on can be very valuable in enabling timely actionable decision such as rework, scrap, feedforward, feedback predicted information or information derived from prediction to improve or monitor processes. This paper provides a general overview of machine learning and advanced analytics application in the advanced semiconductor development and manufacturing.

UAV Control on the Basis of 3D Landmark Bearing-Only Observations

PubMed Central

Karpenko, Simon; Konovalenko, Ivan; Miller, Alexander; Miller, Boris; Nikolaev, Dmitry

2015-01-01

The article presents an approach to the control of a UAV on the basis of 3D landmark observations. The novelty of the work is the usage of the 3D RANSAC algorithm developed on the basis of the landmarks’ position prediction with the aid of a modified Kalman-type filter. Modification of the filter based on the pseudo-measurements approach permits obtaining unbiased UAV position estimation with quadratic error characteristics. Modeling of UAV flight on the basis of the suggested algorithm shows good performance, even under significant external perturbations. PMID:26633394

INVASIVE SPECIES: PREDICTING GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS USING ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

Present approaches to species invasions are reactive in nature. This scenario results in management that perpetually lags behind the most recent invasion and makes control much more difficult. In contrast, spatially explicit ecological niche modeling provides an effective solut...

The Trojan female technique: a novel, effective and humane approach for pest population control.

PubMed

Gemmell, Neil J; Jalilzadeh, Aidin; Didham, Raphael K; Soboleva, Tanya; Tompkins, Daniel M

2013-12-22

Humankind's ongoing battle with pest species spans millennia. Pests cause or carry disease, damage or consume food crops and other resources, and drive global environmental change. Conventional approaches to pest management usually involve lethal control, but such approaches are costly, of varying efficiency and often have ethical issues. Thus, pest management via control of reproductive output is increasingly considered an optimal solution. One of the most successful such 'fertility control' strategies developed to date is the sterile male technique (SMT), in which large numbers of sterile males are released into a population each generation. However, this approach is time-consuming, labour-intensive and costly. We use mathematical models to test a new twist on the SMT, using maternally inherited mitochondrial (mtDNA) mutations that affect male, but not female reproductive fitness. 'Trojan females' carrying such mutations, and their female descendants, produce 'sterile-male'-equivalents under natural conditions over multiple generations. We find that the Trojan female technique (TFT) has the potential to be a novel humane approach for pest control. Single large releases and relatively few small repeat releases of Trojan females both provided effective and persistent control within relatively few generations. Although greatest efficacy was predicted for high-turnover species, the additive nature of multiple releases made the TFT applicable to the full range of life histories modelled. The extensive conservation of mtDNA among eukaryotes suggests this approach could have broad utility for pest control.

Use of Linear Prediction Uncertainty Analysis to Guide Conditioning of Models Simulating Surface-Water/Groundwater Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, J. D.; White, J.; Doherty, J.

2011-12-01

Linear prediction uncertainty analysis in a Bayesian framework was applied to guide the conditioning of an integrated surface water/groundwater model that will be used to predict the effects of groundwater withdrawals on surface-water and groundwater flows. Linear prediction uncertainty analysis is an effective approach for identifying (1) raw and processed data most effective for model conditioning prior to inversion, (2) specific observations and periods of time critically sensitive to specific predictions, and (3) additional observation data that would reduce model uncertainty relative to specific predictions. We present results for a two-dimensional groundwater model of a 2,186 km2 area of the Biscayne aquifer in south Florida implicitly coupled to a surface-water routing model of the actively managed canal system. The model domain includes 5 municipal well fields withdrawing more than 1 Mm3/day and 17 operable surface-water control structures that control freshwater releases from the Everglades and freshwater discharges to Biscayne Bay. More than 10 years of daily observation data from 35 groundwater wells and 24 surface water gages are available to condition model parameters. A dense parameterization was used to fully characterize the contribution of the inversion null space to predictive uncertainty and included bias-correction parameters. This approach allows better resolution of the boundary between the inversion null space and solution space. Bias-correction parameters (e.g., rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and structure flow multipliers) absorb information that is present in structural noise that may otherwise contaminate the estimation of more physically-based model parameters. This allows greater precision in predictions that are entirely solution-space dependent, and reduces the propensity for bias in predictions that are not. Results show that application of this analysis is an effective means of identifying those surface-water and groundwater data, both raw and processed, that minimize predictive uncertainty, while simultaneously identifying the maximum solution-space dimensionality of the inverse problem supported by the data.

Towards Intelligent Control for Next Generation Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acosta, Diana Michelle; KrishnaKumar, Kalmanje Srinvas; Frost, Susan Alane

2008-01-01

NASA Aeronautics Subsonic Fixed Wing Project is focused on mitigating the environmental and operation impacts expected as aviation operations triple by 2025. The approach is to extend technological capabilities and explore novel civil transport configurations that reduce noise, emissions, fuel consumption and field length. Two Next Generation (NextGen) aircraft have been identified to meet the Subsonic Fixed Wing Project goals - these are the Hybrid Wing-Body (HWB) and Cruise Efficient Short Take-Off and Landing (CESTOL) aircraft. The technologies and concepts developed for these aircraft complicate the vehicle s design and operation. In this paper, flight control challenges for NextGen aircraft are described. The objective of this paper is to examine the potential of state-of-the-art control architectures and algorithms to meet the challenges and needed performance metrics for NextGen flight control. A broad range of conventional and intelligent control approaches are considered, including dynamic inversion control, integrated flight-propulsion control, control allocation, adaptive dynamic inversion control, data-based predictive control and reinforcement learning control.

Predictive control of a chaotic permanent magnet synchronous generator in a wind turbine system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manal, Messadi; Adel, Mellit; Karim, Kemih; Malek, Ghanes

2015-01-01

This paper investigates how to address the chaos problem in a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) in a wind turbine system. Predictive control approach is proposed to suppress chaotic behavior and make operating stable; the advantage of this method is that it can only be applied to one state of the wind turbine system. The use of the genetic algorithms to estimate the optimal parameter values of the wind turbine leads to maximization of the power generation. Moreover, some simulation results are included to visualize the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method. Project supported by the CMEP-TASSILI Project (Grant No. 14MDU920).

Evaluation of a Post-Processing Approach for Multiscale Analysis of Biphasic Mechanics of Chondrocytes

PubMed Central

Sibole, Scott C.; Maas, Steve; Halloran, Jason P.; Weiss, Jeffrey A.; Erdemir, Ahmet

2014-01-01

Understanding the mechanical behavior of chondrocytes as a result of cartilage tissue mechanics has significant implications for both evaluation of mechanobiological function and to elaborate on damage mechanisms. A common procedure for prediction of chondrocyte mechanics (and of cell mechanics in general) relies on a computational post-processing approach where tissue level deformations drive cell level models. Potential loss of information in this numerical coupling approach may cause erroneous cellular scale results, particularly during multiphysics analysis of cartilage. The goal of this study was to evaluate the capacity of 1st and 2nd order data passing to predict chondrocyte mechanics by analyzing cartilage deformations obtained for varying complexity of loading scenarios. A tissue scale model with a sub-region incorporating representation of chondron size and distribution served as control. The postprocessing approach first required solution of a homogeneous tissue level model, results of which were used to drive a separate cell level model (same characteristics as the subregion of control model). The 1st data passing appeared to be adequate for simplified loading of the cartilage and for a subset of cell deformation metrics, e.g., change in aspect ratio. The 2nd order data passing scheme was more accurate, particularly when asymmetric permeability of the tissue boundaries were considered. Yet, the method exhibited limitations for predictions of instantaneous metrics related to the fluid phase, e.g., mass exchange rate. Nonetheless, employing higher-order data exchange schemes may be necessary to understand the biphasic mechanics of cells under lifelike tissue loading states for the whole time history of the simulation. PMID:23809004

Theoretical prediction of welding distortion in large and complex structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, De-An

2010-06-01

Welding technology is widely used to assemble large thin plate structures such as ships, automobiles, and passenger trains because of its high productivity. However, it is impossible to avoid welding-induced distortion during the assembly process. Welding distortion not only reduces the fabrication accuracy of a weldment, but also decreases the productivity due to correction work. If welding distortion can be predicted using a practical method beforehand, the prediction will be useful for taking appropriate measures to control the dimensional accuracy to an acceptable limit. In this study, a two-step computational approach, which is a combination of a thermoelastic-plastic finite element method (FEM) and an elastic finite element with consideration for large deformation, is developed to estimate welding distortion for large and complex welded structures. Welding distortions in several representative large complex structures, which are often used in shipbuilding, are simulated using the proposed method. By comparing the predictions and the measurements, the effectiveness of the two-step computational approach is verified.

Links between motor control and classroom behaviors: Moderation by low birth weight

PubMed Central

Razza, Rachel A.; Martin, Anne; Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne

2016-01-01

It is unclear from past research on effortful control whether one of its components, motor control, independently contributes to adaptive classroom behaviors. The goal of this study was to identify associations between early motor control, measured by the walk-a-line task at age 3, and teacher-reported learning-related behaviors (approaches to learning and attention problems) and behavior problems in kindergarten classrooms. Models tested whether children who were vulnerable to poorer learning behaviors and more behavior problems due to having been born low birth weight benefited more, less, or the same as other children from better motor control. Data were drawn from the national Fragile Families and Child-Wellbeing Study (n = 751). Regression models indicated that motor control was significantly associated with better approaches to learning and fewer behavior problems. Children who were low birth weight benefitted more than normal birth weight children from better motor control with respect to their approaches to learning, but equally with respect to behavior problems. Additionally, for low but not normal birth weight children, better motor control predicted fewer attention problems. These findings suggest that motor control follows a compensatory model of development for low birth weight children and classroom behaviors. PMID:27594776

Rapid assessment of nonlinear optical propagation effects in dielectrics

PubMed Central

Hoyo, J. del; de la Cruz, A. Ruiz; Grace, E.; Ferrer, A.; Siegel, J.; Pasquazi, A.; Assanto, G.; Solis, J.

2015-01-01

Ultrafast laser processing applications need fast approaches to assess the nonlinear propagation of the laser beam in order to predict the optimal range of processing parameters in a wide variety of cases. We develop here a method based on the simple monitoring of the nonlinear beam shaping against numerical prediction. The numerical code solves the nonlinear Schrödinger equation with nonlinear absorption under simplified conditions by employing a state-of-the art computationally efficient approach. By comparing with experimental results we can rapidly estimate the nonlinear refractive index and nonlinear absorption coefficients of the material. The validity of this approach has been tested in a variety of experiments where nonlinearities play a key role, like spatial soliton shaping or fs-laser waveguide writing. The approach provides excellent results for propagated power densities for which free carrier generation effects can be neglected. Above such a threshold, the peculiarities of the nonlinear propagation of elliptical beams enable acquiring an instantaneous picture of the deposition of energy inside the material realistic enough to estimate the effective nonlinear refractive index and nonlinear absorption coefficients that can be used for predicting the spatial distribution of energy deposition inside the material and controlling the beam in the writing process. PMID:25564243

Rapid assessment of nonlinear optical propagation effects in dielectrics.

PubMed

del Hoyo, J; de la Cruz, A Ruiz; Grace, E; Ferrer, A; Siegel, J; Pasquazi, A; Assanto, G; Solis, J

2015-01-07

Ultrafast laser processing applications need fast approaches to assess the nonlinear propagation of the laser beam in order to predict the optimal range of processing parameters in a wide variety of cases. We develop here a method based on the simple monitoring of the nonlinear beam shaping against numerical prediction. The numerical code solves the nonlinear Schrödinger equation with nonlinear absorption under simplified conditions by employing a state-of-the art computationally efficient approach. By comparing with experimental results we can rapidly estimate the nonlinear refractive index and nonlinear absorption coefficients of the material. The validity of this approach has been tested in a variety of experiments where nonlinearities play a key role, like spatial soliton shaping or fs-laser waveguide writing. The approach provides excellent results for propagated power densities for which free carrier generation effects can be neglected. Above such a threshold, the peculiarities of the nonlinear propagation of elliptical beams enable acquiring an instantaneous picture of the deposition of energy inside the material realistic enough to estimate the effective nonlinear refractive index and nonlinear absorption coefficients that can be used for predicting the spatial distribution of energy deposition inside the material and controlling the beam in the writing process.

Rapid assessment of nonlinear optical propagation effects in dielectrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoyo, J. Del; de La Cruz, A. Ruiz; Grace, E.; Ferrer, A.; Siegel, J.; Pasquazi, A.; Assanto, G.; Solis, J.

2015-01-01

Ultrafast laser processing applications need fast approaches to assess the nonlinear propagation of the laser beam in order to predict the optimal range of processing parameters in a wide variety of cases. We develop here a method based on the simple monitoring of the nonlinear beam shaping against numerical prediction. The numerical code solves the nonlinear Schrödinger equation with nonlinear absorption under simplified conditions by employing a state-of-the art computationally efficient approach. By comparing with experimental results we can rapidly estimate the nonlinear refractive index and nonlinear absorption coefficients of the material. The validity of this approach has been tested in a variety of experiments where nonlinearities play a key role, like spatial soliton shaping or fs-laser waveguide writing. The approach provides excellent results for propagated power densities for which free carrier generation effects can be neglected. Above such a threshold, the peculiarities of the nonlinear propagation of elliptical beams enable acquiring an instantaneous picture of the deposition of energy inside the material realistic enough to estimate the effective nonlinear refractive index and nonlinear absorption coefficients that can be used for predicting the spatial distribution of energy deposition inside the material and controlling the beam in the writing process.

Visuo-motor coordination ability predicts performance with brain-computer interfaces controlled by modulation of sensorimotor rhythms (SMR)

PubMed Central

Hammer, Eva M.; Kaufmann, Tobias; Kleih, Sonja C.; Blankertz, Benjamin; Kübler, Andrea

2014-01-01

Modulation of sensorimotor rhythms (SMR) was suggested as a control signal for brain-computer interfaces (BCI). Yet, there is a population of users estimated between 10 to 50% not able to achieve reliable control and only about 20% of users achieve high (80–100%) performance. Predicting performance prior to BCI use would facilitate selection of the most feasible system for an individual, thus constitute a practical benefit for the user, and increase our knowledge about the correlates of BCI control. In a recent study, we predicted SMR-BCI performance from psychological variables that were assessed prior to the BCI sessions and BCI control was supported with machine-learning techniques. We described two significant psychological predictors, namely the visuo-motor coordination ability and the ability to concentrate on the task. The purpose of the current study was to replicate these results thereby validating these predictors within a neurofeedback based SMR-BCI that involved no machine learning.Thirty-three healthy BCI novices participated in a calibration session and three further neurofeedback training sessions. Two variables were related with mean SMR-BCI performance: (1) a measure for the accuracy of fine motor skills, i.e., a trade for a person’s visuo-motor control ability; and (2) subject’s “attentional impulsivity”. In a linear regression they accounted for almost 20% in variance of SMR-BCI performance, but predictor (1) failed significance. Nevertheless, on the basis of our prior regression model for sensorimotor control ability we could predict current SMR-BCI performance with an average prediction error of M = 12.07%. In more than 50% of the participants, the prediction error was smaller than 10%. Hence, psychological variables played a moderate role in predicting SMR-BCI performance in a neurofeedback approach that involved no machine learning. Future studies are needed to further consolidate (or reject) the present predictors. PMID:25147518

What else can brains do?

PubMed

Sloman, Aaron

2013-06-01

The approach Clark labels "action-oriented predictive processing" treats all cognition as part of a system of on-line control. This ignores other important aspects of animal, human, and robot intelligence. He contrasts it with an alleged "mainstream" approach that also ignores the depth and variety of AI/Robotic research. I don't think the theory presented is worth taking seriously as a complete model, even if there is much that it explains.

A simple approach to polymer mixture miscibility.

PubMed

Higgins, Julia S; Lipson, Jane E G; White, Ronald P

2010-03-13

Polymeric mixtures are important materials, but the control and understanding of mixing behaviour poses problems. The original Flory-Huggins theoretical approach, using a lattice model to compute the statistical thermodynamics, provides the basic understanding of the thermodynamic processes involved but is deficient in describing most real systems, and has little or no predictive capability. We have developed an approach using a lattice integral equation theory, and in this paper we demonstrate that this not only describes well the literature data on polymer mixtures but allows new insights into the behaviour of polymers and their mixtures. The characteristic parameters obtained by fitting the data have been successfully shown to be transferable from one dataset to another, to be able to correctly predict behaviour outside the experimental range of the original data and to allow meaningful comparisons to be made between different polymer mixtures.

The Predictive Influence of Family and Neighborhood Assets on Fighting and Weapon Carrying from Mid- to Late-Adolescence

PubMed Central

Haegerich, Tamara M.; Oman, Roy F.; Vesely, Sara K.; Aspy, Cheryl B.; Tolma, Eleni L.

2015-01-01

Using a developmental, social-ecological approach to understand the etiology of health risk behavior and inform primary prevention efforts, we assess the predictive effects of family and neighborhood social processes on youth physical fighting and weapon carrying. Specifically, we focus on relationships among youth and their parents, family communication, and parental monitoring, as well as sense of community and neighborhood informal social control, support, concerns, and disorder. This study advances knowledge through its investigation of family and neighborhood structural factors and social processes together, employment of longitudinal models that estimate effects over adolescent development, and use of self-report and observational measures. Data from 1,093 youth/parent pairs were analyzed from the Youth Assets Study using a Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) approach; family and neighborhood assets and risks were analyzed as time-varying and lagged. Similar family assets affected physical fighting and weapon carrying, whereas different neighborhood social processes influenced the two forms of youth violence. Study findings have implications for the primary prevention of youth violence, including the use of family-based approaches that build relationships and parental monitoring skills, and community-level change approaches that promote informal social control and reduce neighborhood concerns about safety. PMID:23677457

Predicting the continuum between corridors and barriers to animal movements using Step Selection Functions and Randomized Shortest Paths.

PubMed

Panzacchi, Manuela; Van Moorter, Bram; Strand, Olav; Saerens, Marco; Kivimäki, Ilkka; St Clair, Colleen C; Herfindal, Ivar; Boitani, Luigi

2016-01-01

The loss, fragmentation and degradation of habitat everywhere on Earth prompts increasing attention to identifying landscape features that support animal movement (corridors) or impedes it (barriers). Most algorithms used to predict corridors assume that animals move through preferred habitat either optimally (e.g. least cost path) or as random walkers (e.g. current models), but neither extreme is realistic. We propose that corridors and barriers are two sides of the same coin and that animals experience landscapes as spatiotemporally dynamic corridor-barrier continua connecting (separating) functional areas where individuals fulfil specific ecological processes. Based on this conceptual framework, we propose a novel methodological approach that uses high-resolution individual-based movement data to predict corridor-barrier continua with increased realism. Our approach consists of two innovations. First, we use step selection functions (SSF) to predict friction maps quantifying corridor-barrier continua for tactical steps between consecutive locations. Secondly, we introduce to movement ecology the randomized shortest path algorithm (RSP) which operates on friction maps to predict the corridor-barrier continuum for strategic movements between functional areas. By modulating the parameter Ѳ, which controls the trade-off between exploration and optimal exploitation of the environment, RSP bridges the gap between algorithms assuming optimal movements (when Ѳ approaches infinity, RSP is equivalent to LCP) or random walk (when Ѳ → 0, RSP → current models). Using this approach, we identify migration corridors for GPS-monitored wild reindeer (Rangifer t. tarandus) in Norway. We demonstrate that reindeer movement is best predicted by an intermediate value of Ѳ, indicative of a movement trade-off between optimization and exploration. Model calibration allows identification of a corridor-barrier continuum that closely fits empirical data and demonstrates that RSP outperforms models that assume either optimality or random walk. The proposed approach models the multiscale cognitive maps by which animals likely navigate real landscapes and generalizes the most common algorithms for identifying corridors. Because suboptimal, but non-random, movement strategies are likely widespread, our approach has the potential to predict more realistic corridor-barrier continua for a wide range of species. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

The Role of Maladaptive Cognitions in Hypersexuality among Highly Sexually Active Gay and Bisexual Men

PubMed Central

Pachankis, John E.; Rendina, H. Jonathon; Ventuneac, Ana; Grov, Christian; Parsons, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

Cognitive appraisals about sex may represent an important component of the maintenance and treatment of hypersexuality, but they are not currently represented in conceptual models of hypersexuality. Therefore, we validated a measure of maladaptive cognitions about sex and examined its unique ability to predict hypersexuality. Qualitative interviews with a pilot sample of 60 highly sexually active gay and bisexual men and expert review of items yielded a pool of 17 items regarding maladaptive cognitions about sex. A separate sample of 202 highly sexually active gay and bisexual men completed measures of sexual inhibition and excitation, impulsivity, emotional dysregulation, depression and anxiety, sexual compulsivity, the Hypersexual Disorder Screening Inventory proposed by the American Psychiatric Association’s DSM-5 Workgroup on Sexual and Gender Identity Disorders (2010). Factor analysis confirmed the presence of three subscales: perceived sexual needs, sexual costs, and sexual control efficacy. Structural equation modeling results were consistent with a cognitive model of hypersexuality whereby magnifying the necessity of sex and disqualifying the benefits of sex partially predicted minimized self-efficacy for controlling one’s sexual behavior, all of which predicted problematic hypersexuality. In multivariate logistic regression, disqualifying the benefits of sex predicted unique variance in hypersexuality, even after adjusting for the role of core constructs of existing research on hypersexuality, AOR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.02, 3.10. Results suggest the utility of a cognitive approach for better understanding hypersexuality and the importance of developing treatment approaches that encourage adaptive appraisals regarding the outcomes of sex and one’s ability to control his sexual behavior. PMID:24558123

A Comparison of Three Job Engagement Measures: Examining their Factorial and Criterion-Related Validity.

PubMed

Wefald, Andrew J; Mills, Maura J; Smith, Michael R; Downey, Ronald G

2012-03-01

Engagement is an emerging job attitude that purports to measure employees' psychological presence at and involvement in their work. This research compares three academic approaches to engagement, and makes recommendations regarding the most appropriate conceptualisation and measurement of the construct in future research. The current research also investigates whether any of these three approaches to engagement contribute unique variance to the prediction of turnover intentions above and beyond the predictive capacity of alternative constructs. An online survey was taken by 382 employees and managers from a mid-sized financial institution. Results failed to support either a multi- or unidimensional factor structure for the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale (UWES) engagement measure. For the Shirom-Melamed Vigor Measure (SMVM), a multi-dimensional structure was identified as a good fit, while a unidimensional structure fit poorly. The uni-factorial structure of Britt's engagement measure was confirmed. The Schaufeli measure of engagement was a strong predictor of work outcomes; however, when controlling for job satisfaction and affective commitment, that measure lost its ability to predict intentions to leave. Two components of the Shirom vigor measure held their predictive validity. Collectively, these findings suggest that the Shirom vigor measure may provide better insight into whether and how much a person is 'into' his or her job. The Schaufeli measure was a good predictor of important work outcomes, but when job satisfaction and affective commitment were controlled, it lost its predictive validity. We were not able to confirm the three-factor structure of the Schaufeli measure. Two components of the Shirom vigor measure predicted turnover intentions after controlling for job satisfaction and affective commitment, suggesting less overlap with those constructs than the Schaufeli measure of engagement. This research adds important information on the nature of engagement and is expected to contribute toward a better understanding of the construct itself, as well as its measurement. © 2011 The Authors. Applied Psychology: Health and Well-Being © 2011 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Operational flood control of a low-lying delta system using large time step Model Predictive Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Xin; van Overloop, Peter-Jules; Negenborn, Rudy R.; van de Giesen, Nick

2015-01-01

The safety of low-lying deltas is threatened not only by riverine flooding but by storm-induced coastal flooding as well. For the purpose of flood control, these deltas are mostly protected in a man-made environment, where dikes, dams and other adjustable infrastructures, such as gates, barriers and pumps are widely constructed. Instead of always reinforcing and heightening these structures, it is worth considering making the most of the existing infrastructure to reduce the damage and manage the delta in an operational and overall way. In this study, an advanced real-time control approach, Model Predictive Control, is proposed to operate these structures in the Dutch delta system (the Rhine-Meuse delta). The application covers non-linearity in the dynamic behavior of the water system and the structures. To deal with the non-linearity, a linearization scheme is applied which directly uses the gate height instead of the structure flow as the control variable. Given the fact that MPC needs to compute control actions in real-time, we address issues regarding computational time. A new large time step scheme is proposed in order to save computation time, in which different control variables can have different control time steps. Simulation experiments demonstrate that Model Predictive Control with the large time step setting is able to control a delta system better and much more efficiently than the conventional operational schemes.

Towards a Semantically-Enabled Control Strategy for Building Simulations: Integration of Semantic Technologies and Model Predictive Control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Delgoshaei, Parastoo; Austin, Mark A.; Pertzborn, Amanda J.

State-of-the-art building simulation control methods incorporate physical constraints into their mathematical models, but omit implicit constraints associated with policies of operation and dependency relationships among rules representing those constraints. To overcome these shortcomings, there is a recent trend in enabling the control strategies with inference-based rule checking capabilities. One solution is to exploit semantic web technologies in building simulation control. Such approaches provide the tools for semantic modeling of domains, and the ability to deduce new information based on the models through use of Description Logic (DL). In a step toward enabling this capability, this paper presents a cross-disciplinary data-drivenmore » control strategy for building energy management simulation that integrates semantic modeling and formal rule checking mechanisms into a Model Predictive Control (MPC) formulation. The results show that MPC provides superior levels of performance when initial conditions and inputs are derived from inference-based rules.« less

Network Controllability in the Inferior Frontal Gyrus Relates to Controlled Language Variability and Susceptibility to TMS.

PubMed

Medaglia, John D; Harvey, Denise Y; White, Nicole; Kelkar, Apoorva; Zimmerman, Jared; Bassett, Danielle S; Hamilton, Roy H

2018-06-08

In language production, humans are confronted with considerable word selection demands. Often, we must select a word from among similar, acceptable, and competing alternative words in order to construct a sentence that conveys an intended meaning. In recent years, the left inferior frontal gyrus (LIFG) has been identified as critical to this ability. Despite a recent emphasis on network approaches to understanding language, how the LIFG interacts with the brain's complex networks to facilitate controlled language performance remains unknown. Here, we take a novel approach to understand word selection as a network control process in the brain. Using an anatomical brain network derived from high-resolution diffusion spectrum imaging (DSI), we computed network controllability underlying the site of transcranial magnetic stimulation in the LIFG between administrations of language tasks that vary in response (cognitive control) demands: open-response (word generation) vs. closed-response (number naming) tasks. We find that a statistic that quantifies the LIFG's theoretically predicted control of communication across modules in the human connectome explains TMS-induced changes in open-response language task performance only. Moreover, we find that a statistic that quantifies the LIFG's theoretically predicted control of difficult-to-reach states explains vulnerability to TMS in the closed-ended (but not open-ended) response task. These findings establish a link between network controllability, cognitive function, and TMS effects. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT This work illustrates that network control statistics applied to anatomical connectivity data demonstrate relationships with cognitive variability during controlled language tasks and TMS effects. Copyright © 2018 the authors.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ainstworth, Nathan; Johnson, Brian; Lundstrom, Blake

Presentation for NAPS 2015 associated with conference publication CP-64392. Home Energy Management Systems (HEMS) are controllers that manage and coordinate the generation, storage, and loads in a home. These controllers are increasingly necessary to ensure that increasing penetrations of distributed energy resources are used effectively and do not disrupt the operation of the grid. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to HEMS design based on behavioral control methods, which do not require accurate models or predictions and are very responsive to changing conditions.

Prognostics and Health Monitoring: Application to Electric Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Chetan S.

2017-01-01

As more and more autonomous electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in accurate prediction of remaining useful life of the systemssubsystems, specifically the electrical powertrain. In case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle.Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator either to the pilotautopilot for the electric vehicles which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life of the vehicle e.g. determine state-of-charge in batteries. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making.

Development of the Surface Management System Integrated with CTAS Arrival Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jung, Yoon C.; Jara, Dave

2005-01-01

The Surface Management System (SMS) developed by NASA Ames Research Center in coordination with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is a decision support tool to help tower traffic coordinators and Ground/Local controllers in managing and controlling airport surface traffic in order to increase capacity, efficiency, and flexibility. SMS provides common situation awareness to personnel at various air traffic control facilities such as airport traffic control towers (ATCT s), airline ramp towers, Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON), and Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC). SMS also provides a traffic management tool to assist ATCT traffic management coordinators (TMCs) in making decisions such as airport configuration and runway load balancing. The Build 1 of the SMS tool was installed and successfully tested at Memphis International Airport (MEM) and received high acceptance scores from ATCT controllers and coordinators, as well as airline ramp controllers. NASA Ames Research Center continues to develop SMS under NASA s Strategic Airspace Usage (SAU) project in order to improve its prediction accuracy and robustness under various modeling uncertainties. This paper reports the recent development effort performed by the NASA Ames Research Center: 1) integration of Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS) capability with SMS and 2) an alternative approach to obtain airline gate information through a publicly available website. The preliminary analysis results performed on the air/surface traffic data at the DFW airport have shown significant improvement in predicting airport arrival demand and IN time at the gate. This paper concludes with recommendations for future research and development.

Exploration of crystal simulation potential by fluconazole isomorphism and its application in improvement of pharmaceutical properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thakur, Amitha; Kumar, Dinesh; Thipparaboina, Rajesh; Shastri, Nalini R.

2014-11-01

Control of crystal morphology during crystallization is a paramount challenge in pharmaceutical processing. Hence, there is need to introduce computational methods for morphology prediction to manage production cost of drugs and improve related pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical properties. Layer docking approach with molecular dynamics opens a new avenue for crystal habit prediction in presence of solvent. In the present study, attempts were made to correlate predicted and experimental crystal habits of fluconazole considering solvent interactions using layer docking approach. Simulated results from layer docking approach with methanol as solvent gave two dominant facets (0 1 1) and (1 0 1) with a surface area 22.43% and 19.82% respectively, which were in agreement with the experimental results. Experimentally grown modified crystal habit of fluconazole in methanol showed enhanced dissolution rate (p<0.05) when compared to plain drug. This was attributed to the increased surface area on the specified facets caused by interactions with the solvent. Furthermore, Differential Scanning Calorimetry, Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) Spectroscopy and powder X-ray Diffraction of recrystallized samples confirmed only a habit change and absence of any polymorphs, hydrates or solvates. Flow and compressibility of fluconazole recrystallized in methanol was significantly improved when compared to plain drug. This study demonstrates a methodical approach using computational tools for prediction and modification of crystal habit, to enhance dissolution of poorly soluble drugs, for future pharmaceutical applications.

Experimental results in autonomous landing approaches by dynamic machine vision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickmanns, Ernst D.; Werner, Stefan; Kraus, S.; Schell, R.

1994-07-01

The 4-D approach to dynamic machine vision, exploiting full spatio-temporal models of the process to be controlled, has been applied to on board autonomous landing approaches of aircraft. Aside from image sequence processing, for which it was developed initially, it is also used for data fusion from a range of sensors. By prediction error feedback an internal representation of the aircraft state relative to the runway in 3-D space and time is servo- maintained in the interpretation process, from which the control applications required are being derived. The validity and efficiency of the approach have been proven both in hardware- in-the-loop simulations and in flight experiments with a twin turboprop aircraft Do128 under perturbations from cross winds and wind gusts. The software package has been ported to `C' and onto a new transputer image processing platform; the system has been expanded for bifocal vision with two cameras of different focal length mounted fixed relative to each other on a two-axes platform for viewing direction control.

Gaussian Process Autoregression for Simultaneous Proportional Multi-Modal Prosthetic Control With Natural Hand Kinematics.

PubMed

Xiloyannis, Michele; Gavriel, Constantinos; Thomik, Andreas A C; Faisal, A Aldo

2017-10-01

Matching the dexterity, versatility, and robustness of the human hand is still an unachieved goal in bionics, robotics, and neural engineering. A major limitation for hand prosthetics lies in the challenges of reliably decoding user intention from muscle signals when controlling complex robotic hands. Most of the commercially available prosthetic hands use muscle-related signals to decode a finite number of predefined motions and some offer proportional control of open/close movements of the whole hand. Here, in contrast, we aim to offer users flexible control of individual joints of their artificial hand. We propose a novel framework for decoding neural information that enables a user to independently control 11 joints of the hand in a continuous manner-much like we control our natural hands. Toward this end, we instructed six able-bodied subjects to perform everyday object manipulation tasks combining both dynamic, free movements (e.g., grasping) and isometric force tasks (e.g., squeezing). We recorded the electromyographic and mechanomyographic activities of five extrinsic muscles of the hand in the forearm, while simultaneously monitoring 11 joints of hand and fingers using a sensorized data glove that tracked the joints of the hand. Instead of learning just a direct mapping from current muscle activity to intended hand movement, we formulated a novel autoregressive approach that combines the context of previous hand movements with instantaneous muscle activity to predict future hand movements. Specifically, we evaluated a linear vector autoregressive moving average model with exogenous inputs and a novel Gaussian process ( ) autoregressive framework to learn the continuous mapping from hand joint dynamics and muscle activity to decode intended hand movement. Our approach achieves high levels of performance (RMSE of 8°/s and ). Crucially, we use a small set of sensors that allows us to control a larger set of independently actuated degrees of freedom of a hand. This novel undersensored control is enabled through the combination of nonlinear autoregressive continuous mapping between muscle activity and joint angles. The system evaluates the muscle signals in the context of previous natural hand movements. This enables us to resolve ambiguities in situations, where muscle signals alone cannot determine the correct action as we evaluate the muscle signals in their context of natural hand movements. autoregression is a particularly powerful approach which makes not only a prediction based on the context but also represents the associated uncertainty of its predictions, thus enabling the novel notion of risk-based control in neuroprosthetics. Our results suggest that autoregressive approaches with exogenous inputs lend themselves for natural, intuitive, and continuous control in neurotechnology, with the particular focus on prosthetic restoration of natural limb function, where high dexterity is required for complex movements.

A Cluster-Randomised, Controlled Trial of the Impact of Cogmed Working Memory Training on Both Academic Performance and Regulation of Social, Emotional and Behavioural Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hitchcock, Caitlin; Westwell, Martin S.

2017-01-01

Background: We explored whether school-based Cogmed Working Memory Training (CWMT) may optimise both academic and psychological outcomes at school. Training of executive control skills may form a novel approach to enhancing processes that predict academic achievement, such as task-related attention, and thereby academic performance, but also has…

Using Psychodynamic, Cognitive Behavioral, and Control Mastery Prototypes to Predict Change: A New Look at an Old Paradigm for Long-Term Single-Case Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pole, Nnamdi; Ablon, J. Stuart; O'Connor, Lynn E.

2008-01-01

This article illustrates a method of testing models of change in individual long-term psychotherapy cases. A depressed client was treated with 208 sessions of control mastery therapy (CMT), an unmanualized approach that integrates elements of psychodynamic therapy (PDT) and cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). Panels of experts developed prototypes…

FOOD RISK ANALYSIS

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Food risk analysis is a holistic approach to food safety because it considers all aspects of the problem. Risk assessment modeling is the foundation of food risk analysis. Proper design and simulation of the risk assessment model is important to properly predict and control risk. Because of knowl...

Watershed Management Tool for Selection and Spacial Allocation of Non-Point Source Pollution Control Practices

EPA Science Inventory

Distributed-parameter watershed models are often utilized for evaluating the effectiveness of sediment and nutrient abatement strategies through the traditional {calibrate→ validate→ predict} approach. The applicability of the method is limited due to modeling approximations. In ...

Predictors of early growth in academic achievement: the head-toes-knees-shoulders task

PubMed Central

McClelland, Megan M.; Cameron, Claire E.; Duncan, Robert; Bowles, Ryan P.; Acock, Alan C.; Miao, Alicia; Pratt, Megan E.

2014-01-01

Children's behavioral self-regulation and executive function (EF; including attentional or cognitive flexibility, working memory, and inhibitory control) are strong predictors of academic achievement. The present study examined the psychometric properties of a measure of behavioral self-regulation called the Head-Toes-Knees-Shoulders (HTKS) by assessing construct validity, including relations to EF measures, and predictive validity to academic achievement growth between prekindergarten and kindergarten. In the fall and spring of prekindergarten and kindergarten, 208 children (51% enrolled in Head Start) were assessed on the HTKS, measures of cognitive flexibility, working memory (WM), and inhibitory control, and measures of emergent literacy, mathematics, and vocabulary. For construct validity, the HTKS was significantly related to cognitive flexibility, working memory, and inhibitory control in prekindergarten and kindergarten. For predictive validity in prekindergarten, a random effects model indicated that the HTKS significantly predicted growth in mathematics, whereas a cognitive flexibility task significantly predicted growth in mathematics and vocabulary. In kindergarten, the HTKS was the only measure to significantly predict growth in all academic outcomes. An alternative conservative analytical approach, a fixed effects analysis (FEA) model, also indicated that growth in both the HTKS and measures of EF significantly predicted growth in mathematics over four time points between prekindergarten and kindergarten. Results demonstrate that the HTKS involves cognitive flexibility, working memory, and inhibitory control, and is substantively implicated in early achievement, with the strongest relations found for growth in achievement during kindergarten and associations with emergent mathematics. PMID:25071619

Predictive Techniques for Spacecraft Cabin Air Quality Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perry, J. L.; Cromes, Scott D. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

As assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) proceeds, predictive techniques are used to determine the best approach for handling a variety of cabin air quality challenges. These techniques use equipment offgassing data collected from each ISS module before flight to characterize the trace chemical contaminant load. Combined with crew metabolic loads, these data serve as input to a predictive model for assessing the capability of the onboard atmosphere revitalization systems to handle the overall trace contaminant load as station assembly progresses. The techniques for predicting in-flight air quality are summarized along with results from early ISS mission analyses. Results from groundbased analyses of in-flight air quality samples are compared to the predictions to demonstrate the technique's relative conservatism.

How physiological and physical processes contribute to the phenology of cyanobacterial blooms in large shallow lakes: A new Euler-Lagrangian coupled model.

PubMed

Feng, Tao; Wang, Chao; Wang, Peifang; Qian, Jin; Wang, Xun

2018-09-01

Cyanobacterial blooms have emerged as one of the most severe ecological problems affecting large and shallow freshwater lakes. To improve our understanding of the factors that influence, and could be used to predict, surface blooms, this study developed a novel Euler-Lagrangian coupled approach combining the Eulerian model with agent-based modelling (ABM). The approach was subsequently verified based on monitoring datasets and MODIS data in a large shallow lake (Lake Taihu, China). The Eulerian model solves the Eulerian variables and physiological parameters, whereas ABM generates the complete life cycle and transport processes of cyanobacterial colonies. This model ensemble performed well in fitting historical data and predicting the dynamics of cyanobacterial biomass, bloom distribution, and area. Based on the calculated physical and physiological characteristics of surface blooms, principal component analysis (PCA) captured the major processes influencing surface bloom formation at different stages (two bloom clusters). Early bloom outbreaks were influenced by physical processes (horizontal transport and vertical turbulence-induced mixing), whereas buoyancy-controlling strategies were essential for mature bloom outbreaks. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) revealed the combined actions of multiple environment variables on different bloom clusters. The effects of buoyancy-controlling strategies (ISP), vertical turbulence-induced mixing velocity of colony (VMT) and horizontal drift velocity of colony (HDT) were quantitatively compared using scenario simulations in the coupled model. VMT accounted for 52.9% of bloom formations and maintained blooms over long periods, thus demonstrating the importance of wind-induced turbulence in shallow lakes. In comparison, HDT and buoyancy controlling strategies influenced blooms at different stages. In conclusion, the approach developed here presents a promising tool for understanding the processes of onshore/offshore algal blooms formation and subsequent predicting. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Why does working memory capacity predict variation in reading comprehension? On the influence of mind wandering and executive attention.

PubMed

McVay, Jennifer C; Kane, Michael J

2012-05-01

Some people are better readers than others, and this variation in comprehension ability is predicted by measures of working memory capacity (WMC). The primary goal of this study was to investigate the mediating role of mind-wandering experiences in the association between WMC and normal individual differences in reading comprehension, as predicted by the executive-attention theory of WMC (e.g., Engle & Kane, 2004). We used a latent-variable, structural-equation-model approach, testing skilled adult readers on 3 WMC span tasks, 7 varied reading-comprehension tasks, and 3 attention-control tasks. Mind wandering was assessed using experimenter-scheduled thought probes during 4 different tasks (2 reading, 2 attention-control). The results support the executive-attention theory of WMC. Mind wandering across the 4 tasks loaded onto a single latent factor, reflecting a stable individual difference. Most important, mind wandering was a significant mediator in the relationship between WMC and reading comprehension, suggesting that the WMC-comprehension correlation is driven, in part, by attention control over intruding thoughts. We discuss implications for theories of WMC, attention control, and reading comprehension.

Artificial neural network EMG classifier for functional hand grasp movements prediction.

PubMed

Gandolla, Marta; Ferrante, Simona; Ferrigno, Giancarlo; Baldassini, Davide; Molteni, Franco; Guanziroli, Eleonora; Cotti Cottini, Michele; Seneci, Carlo; Pedrocchi, Alessandra

2017-12-01

Objective To design and implement an electromyography (EMG)-based controller for a hand robotic assistive device, which is able to classify the user's motion intention before the effective kinematic movement execution. Methods Multiple degrees-of-freedom hand grasp movements (i.e. pinching, grasp an object, grasping) were predicted by means of surface EMG signals, recorded from 10 bipolar EMG electrodes arranged in a circular configuration around the forearm 2-3 cm from the elbow. Two cascaded artificial neural networks were then exploited to detect the patient's motion intention from the EMG signal window starting from the electrical activity onset to movement onset (i.e. electromechanical delay). Results The proposed approach was tested on eight healthy control subjects (4 females; age range 25-26 years) and it demonstrated a mean ± SD testing performance of 76% ± 14% for correctly predicting healthy users' motion intention. Two post-stroke patients tested the controller and obtained 79% and 100% of correctly classified movements under testing conditions. Conclusion A task-selection controller was developed to estimate the intended movement from the EMG measured during the electromechanical delay.

Phonon-tunnelling dissipation in mechanical resonators

PubMed Central

Cole, Garrett D.; Wilson-Rae, Ignacio; Werbach, Katharina; Vanner, Michael R.; Aspelmeyer, Markus

2011-01-01

Microscale and nanoscale mechanical resonators have recently emerged as ubiquitous devices for use in advanced technological applications, for example, in mobile communications and inertial sensors, and as novel tools for fundamental scientific endeavours. Their performance is in many cases limited by the deleterious effects of mechanical damping. In this study, we report a significant advancement towards understanding and controlling support-induced losses in generic mechanical resonators. We begin by introducing an efficient numerical solver, based on the 'phonon-tunnelling' approach, capable of predicting the design-limited damping of high-quality mechanical resonators. Further, through careful device engineering, we isolate support-induced losses and perform a rigorous experimental test of the strong geometric dependence of this loss mechanism. Our results are in excellent agreement with the theory, demonstrating the predictive power of our approach. In combination with recent progress on complementary dissipation mechanisms, our phonon-tunnelling solver represents a major step towards accurate prediction of the mechanical quality factor. PMID:21407197

A prescribed wake rotor inflow and flow field prediction analysis, user's manual and technical approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Egolf, T. A.; Landgrebe, A. J.

1982-01-01

A user's manual is provided which includes the technical approach for the Prescribed Wake Rotor Inflow and Flow Field Prediction Analysis. The analysis is used to provide the rotor wake induced velocities at the rotor blades for use in blade airloads and response analyses and to provide induced velocities at arbitrary field points such as at a tail surface. This analysis calculates the distribution of rotor wake induced velocities based on a prescribed wake model. Section operating conditions are prescribed from blade motion and controls determined by a separate blade response analysis. The analysis represents each blade by a segmented lifting line, and the rotor wake by discrete segmented trailing vortex filaments. Blade loading and circulation distributions are calculated based on blade element strip theory including the local induced velocity predicted by the numerical integration of the Biot-Savart Law applied to the vortex wake model.

CisMapper: predicting regulatory interactions from transcription factor ChIP-seq data

PubMed Central

O'Connor, Timothy; Bodén, Mikael

2017-01-01

Abstract Identifying the genomic regions and regulatory factors that control the transcription of genes is an important, unsolved problem. The current method of choice predicts transcription factor (TF) binding sites using chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by sequencing (ChIP-seq), and then links the binding sites to putative target genes solely on the basis of the genomic distance between them. Evidence from chromatin conformation capture experiments shows that this approach is inadequate due to long-distance regulation via chromatin looping. We present CisMapper, which predicts the regulatory targets of a TF using the correlation between a histone mark at the TF's bound sites and the expression of each gene across a panel of tissues. Using both chromatin conformation capture and differential expression data, we show that CisMapper is more accurate at predicting the target genes of a TF than the distance-based approaches currently used, and is particularly advantageous for predicting the long-range regulatory interactions typical of tissue-specific gene expression. CisMapper also predicts which TF binding sites regulate a given gene more accurately than using genomic distance. Unlike distance-based methods, CisMapper can predict which transcription start site of a gene is regulated by a particular binding site of the TF. PMID:28204599

Pneumatic Variable Series Elastic Actuator.

PubMed

Zheng, Hao; Wu, Molei; Shen, Xiangrong

2016-08-01

Inspired by human motor control theory, stiffness control is highly effective in manipulation and human-interactive tasks. The implementation of stiffness control in robotic systems, however, has largely been limited to closed-loop control, and suffers from multiple issues such as limited frequency range, potential instability, and lack of contribution to energy efficiency. Variable-stiffness actuator represents a better solution, but the current designs are complex, heavy, and bulky. The approach in this paper seeks to address these issues by using pneumatic actuator as a variable series elastic actuator (VSEA), leveraging the compressibility of the working fluid. In this work, a pneumatic actuator is modeled as an elastic element with controllable stiffness and equilibrium point, both of which are functions of air masses in the two chambers. As such, for the implementation of stiffness control in a robotic system, the desired stiffness/equilibrium point can be converted to the desired chamber air masses, and a predictive pressure control approach is developed to control the timing of valve switching to obtain the desired air mass while minimizing control action. Experimental results showed that the new approach in this paper requires less expensive hardware (on-off valve instead of proportional valve), causes less control action in implementation, and provides good control performance by leveraging the inherent dynamics of the actuator.

Pneumatic Variable Series Elastic Actuator

PubMed Central

Zheng, Hao; Wu, Molei; Shen, Xiangrong

2016-01-01

Inspired by human motor control theory, stiffness control is highly effective in manipulation and human-interactive tasks. The implementation of stiffness control in robotic systems, however, has largely been limited to closed-loop control, and suffers from multiple issues such as limited frequency range, potential instability, and lack of contribution to energy efficiency. Variable-stiffness actuator represents a better solution, but the current designs are complex, heavy, and bulky. The approach in this paper seeks to address these issues by using pneumatic actuator as a variable series elastic actuator (VSEA), leveraging the compressibility of the working fluid. In this work, a pneumatic actuator is modeled as an elastic element with controllable stiffness and equilibrium point, both of which are functions of air masses in the two chambers. As such, for the implementation of stiffness control in a robotic system, the desired stiffness/equilibrium point can be converted to the desired chamber air masses, and a predictive pressure control approach is developed to control the timing of valve switching to obtain the desired air mass while minimizing control action. Experimental results showed that the new approach in this paper requires less expensive hardware (on–off valve instead of proportional valve), causes less control action in implementation, and provides good control performance by leveraging the inherent dynamics of the actuator. PMID:27354755

Use of EDTA in modified kinetic testing for contaminated drainage prediction from waste rocks: case of the Lac Tio mine.

PubMed

Plante, Benoît; Benzaazoua, Mostafa; Bussière, Bruno; Kandji, El-Hadji-Babacar; Chopard, Aurélie; Bouzahzah, Hassan

2015-05-01

The tools developed for acid mine drainage (AMD) prediction were proven unsuccessful to predict the geochemical behavior of mine waste rocks having a significant chemical sorption capacity, which delays the onset of contaminated neutral drainage (CND). The present work was performed in order to test a new approach of water quality prediction, by using a chelating agent solution (0.03 M EDTA, or ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid) in kinetic testing used for the prediction of the geochemical behavior of geologic material. The hypothesis underlying the proposed approach is that the EDTA solution should chelate the metals as soon as they are released by sulfide oxidation, inhibiting their sorption or secondary precipitation, and therefore reproduce a worst-case scenario where very low metal attenuation mechanisms are present in the drainage waters. Fresh and weathered waste rocks from the Lac Tio mine (Rio tinto, Iron and Titanium), which are known to generate Ni-CND at the field scale, were submitted to small-scale humidity cells in control tests (using deionized water) and using an EDTA solution. Results show that EDTA effectively prevents the metals to be sorbed or to precipitate as secondary minerals, therefore enabling to bypass the delay associated with metal sorption in the prediction of water quality from these materials. This work shows that the use of a chelating agent solution is a promising novel approach of water quality prediction and provides general guidelines to be used in further studies, which will help both practitioners and regulators to plan more efficient management and disposal strategies of mine wastes.

Impulsivity, Impulsive and Reflective Processes and the Development of Alcohol Use and Misuse in Adolescents and Young Adults

PubMed Central

Wiers, Reinout W.; Ames, Susan L.; Hofmann, Wilhelm; Krank, Marvin; Stacy, Alan W.

2010-01-01

This paper contrasts dual-process and personality approaches in the prediction of addictive behaviors and related risk behaviors. In dual-process models, behavior is described as the joint outcome of qualitatively different “impulsive” (or associative) and “reflective” processes. There are important individual differences regarding both types of processes, and the relative strength of both in a specific situation is influenced by prior behavior and state variables (e.g., fatigue, alcohol use). From this perspective, a specific behavior (e.g., alcohol misuse) can be predicted by the combined indices of the behavior-related impulsive processes (e.g., associations with alcohol), and reflective processes, including the ability to refrain from a motivationally salient action. Personality approaches have reported that general traits such as impulsivity predict addictive behaviors. Here we contrast these two approaches, with supplementary analyses on four datasets. We hypothesized that trait impulsivity can predict specific risky behaviors, but that its predictive power disappears once specific behavior-related associations, indicators of executive functioning, and their interaction are entered into the equation. In all four studies the observed interaction between specific associations and executive control (EC) was robust: trait impulsivity did not diminish the prediction of alcohol use by the interaction. Trait impulsivity was not always related to alcohol use, and when it was, the predictive power disappeared after entering the interaction between behavior-specific associations and EC in one study, but not in the other. These findings are interpreted in relation to the validity of the measurements used, which leads to a more refined hypothesis. PMID:21833213

Analysis of Air Traffic Track Data with the AutoBayes Synthesis System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schumann, Johann Martin Philip; Cate, Karen; Lee, Alan G.

2010-01-01

The Next Generation Air Traffic System (NGATS) is aiming to provide substantial computer support for the air traffic controllers. Algorithms for the accurate prediction of aircraft movements are of central importance for such software systems but trajectory prediction has to work reliably in the presence of unknown parameters and uncertainties. We are using the AutoBayes program synthesis system to generate customized data analysis algorithms that process large sets of aircraft radar track data in order to estimate parameters and uncertainties. In this paper, we present, how the tasks of finding structure in track data, estimation of important parameters in climb trajectories, and the detection of continuous descent approaches can be accomplished with compact task-specific AutoBayes specifications. We present an overview of the AutoBayes architecture and describe, how its schema-based approach generates customized analysis algorithms, documented C/C++ code, and detailed mathematical derivations. Results of experiments with actual air traffic control data are discussed.

Capture, Learning, and Classification of Upper Extremity Movement Primitives in Healthy Controls and Stroke Patients

PubMed Central

Guerra, Jorge; Uddin, Jasim; Nilsen, Dawn; Mclnerney, James; Fadoo, Ammarah; Omofuma, Isirame B.; Hughes, Shatif; Agrawal, Sunil; Allen, Peter; Schambra, Heidi M.

2017-01-01

There currently exist no practical tools to identify functional movements in the upper extremities (UEs). This absence has limited the precise therapeutic dosing of patients recovering from stroke. In this proof-of-principle study, we aimed to develop an accurate approach for classifying UE functional movement primitives, which comprise functional movements. Data were generated from inertial measurement units (IMUs) placed on upper body segments of older healthy individuals and chronic stroke patients. Subjects performed activities commonly trained during rehabilitation after stroke. Data processing involved the use of a sliding window to obtain statistical descriptors, and resulting features were processed by a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The likelihoods of the states, resulting from the HMM, were segmented by a second sliding window and their averages were calculated. The final predictions were mapped to human functional movement primitives using a Logistic Regression algorithm. Algorithm performance was assessed with a leave-one-out analysis, which determined its sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for all classified primitives. In healthy control and stroke participants, our approach identified functional movement primitives embedded in training activities with, on average, 80% precision. This approach may support functional movement dosing in stroke rehabilitation. PMID:28813877

Computerized atmospheric trace contaminant control simulation for manned spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perry, J. L.

1993-01-01

Buildup of atmospheric trace contaminants in enclosed volumes such as a spacecraft may lead to potentially serious health problems for the crew members. For this reason, active control methods must be implemented to minimize the concentration of atmospheric contaminants to levels that are considered safe for prolonged, continuous exposure. Designing hardware to accomplish this has traditionally required extensive testing to characterize and select appropriate control technologies. Data collected since the Apollo project can now be used in a computerized performance simulation to predict the performance and life of contamination control hardware to allow for initial technology screening, performance prediction, and operations and contingency studies to determine the most suitable hardware approach before specific design and testing activities begin. The program, written in FORTRAN 77, provides contaminant removal rate, total mass removed, and per pass efficiency for each control device for discrete time intervals. In addition, projected cabin concentration is provided. Input and output data are manipulated using commercial spreadsheet and data graphing software. These results can then be used in analyzing hardware design parameters such as sizing and flow rate, overall process performance and program economics. Test performance may also be predicted to aid test design.

Planner-Based Control of Advanced Life Support Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muscettola, Nicola; Kortenkamp, David; Fry, Chuck; Bell, Scott

2005-01-01

The paper describes an approach to the integration of qualitative and quantitative modeling techniques for advanced life support (ALS) systems. Developing reliable control strategies that scale up to fully integrated life support systems requires augmenting quantitative models and control algorithms with the abstractions provided by qualitative, symbolic models and their associated high-level control strategies. This will allow for effective management of the combinatorics due to the integration of a large number of ALS subsystems. By focusing control actions at different levels of detail and reactivity we can use faster: simpler responses at the lowest level and predictive but complex responses at the higher levels of abstraction. In particular, methods from model-based planning and scheduling can provide effective resource management over long time periods. We describe reference implementation of an advanced control system using the IDEA control architecture developed at NASA Ames Research Center. IDEA uses planning/scheduling as the sole reasoning method for predictive and reactive closed loop control. We describe preliminary experiments in planner-based control of ALS carried out on an integrated ALS simulation developed at NASA Johnson Space Center.

Lay out, test verification and in orbit performance of HELIOS a temperature control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brungs, W.

1975-01-01

HELIOS temperature control system is described. The main design features and the impact of interactions between experiment, spacecraft system, and temperature control system requirements on the design are discussed. The major limitations of the thermal design regarding a closer sun approach are given and related to test experience and performance data obtained in orbit. Finally the validity of the test results achieved with prototype and flight spacecraft is evaluated by comparison between test data, orbit temperature predictions and flight data.

A Review of Emerging Technologies for the Management of Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Zarkogianni, Konstantia; Litsa, Eleni; Mitsis, Konstantinos; Wu, Po-Yen; Kaddi, Chanchala D; Cheng, Chih-Wen; Wang, May D; Nikita, Konstantina S

2015-12-01

High prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) along with the poor health outcomes and the escalated costs of treatment and care poses the need to focus on prevention, early detection and improved management of the disease. The aim of this paper is to present and discuss the latest accomplishments in sensors for glucose and lifestyle monitoring along with clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) facilitating self-disease management and supporting healthcare professionals in decision making. A critical literature review analysis is conducted focusing on advances in: 1) sensors for physiological and lifestyle monitoring, 2) models and molecular biomarkers for predicting the onset and assessing the progress of DM, and 3) modeling and control methods for regulating glucose levels. Glucose and lifestyle sensing technologies are continuously evolving with current research focusing on the development of noninvasive sensors for accurate glucose monitoring. A wide range of modeling, classification, clustering, and control approaches have been deployed for the development of the CDSS for diabetes management. Sophisticated multiscale, multilevel modeling frameworks taking into account information from behavioral down to molecular level are necessary to reveal correlations and patterns indicating the onset and evolution of DM. Integration of data originating from sensor-based systems and electronic health records combined with smart data analytics methods and powerful user centered approaches enable the shift toward preventive, predictive, personalized, and participatory diabetes care. The potential of sensing and predictive modeling approaches toward improving diabetes management is highlighted and related challenges are identified.

A Review of Emerging Technologies for the Management of Diabetes Mellitus

PubMed Central

Zarkogianni, Konstantia; Litsa, Eleni; Mitsis, Konstantinos; Wu, Po-Yen; Kaddi, Chanchala D.; Cheng, Chih-Wen; Wang, May D.; Nikita, Konstantina S.

2016-01-01

Objective High prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) along with the poor health outcomes and the escalated costs of treatment and care poses the need to focus on prevention, early detection and improved management of the disease. The aim of this paper is to present and discuss the latest accomplishments in sensors for glucose and lifestyle monitoring along with clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) facilitating self-disease management and supporting healthcare professionals in decision making. Methods A critical literature review analysis is conducted focusing on advances in: 1) sensors for physiological and lifestyle monitoring, 2) models and molecular biomarkers for predicting the onset and assessing the progress of DM, and 3) modeling and control methods for regulating glucose levels. Results Glucose and lifestyle sensing technologies are continuously evolving with current research focusing on the development of noninvasive sensors for accurate glucose monitoring. A wide range of modeling, classification, clustering, and control approaches have been deployed for the development of the CDSS for diabetes management. Sophisticated multiscale, multilevel modeling frameworks taking into account information from behavioral down to molecular level are necessary to reveal correlations and patterns indicating the onset and evolution of DM. Conclusion Integration of data originating from sensor-based systems and electronic health records combined with smart data analytics methods and powerful user centered approaches enable the shift toward preventive, predictive, personalized, and participatory diabetes care. Significance The potential of sensing and predictive modeling approaches toward improving diabetes management is highlighted and related challenges are identified. PMID:26292334

A review of 'green' strategies to prevent or mitigate microbiologically influenced corrosion.

PubMed

Little, Brenda; Lee, Jason; Ray, Richard

2007-01-01

Two approaches to control microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC) have been developed that do not require the use of biocides. These strategies include the following: i) use of biofilms to inhibit or prevent corrosion, and ii) manipulation (removal or addition) of an electron acceptor, (e.g. oxygen, sulphate or nitrate) to influence the microbial population. In both approaches the composition of the microbial community is affected by small perturbations in the environment (e.g. temperature, nutrient concentration and flow) and the response of microorganisms cannot be predicted with certainty. The following sections will review the literature on the effectiveness of these environmentally friendly, "green," strategies for controlling MIC.

Collapse of Non-Rectangular Channels in a Soft Elastomer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tepayotl-Ramirez, Daniel; Park, Yong-Lae; Lu, Tong; Majidi, Carmel

2013-03-01

We examine the collapse of microchannels in a soft elastomer by treating the sidewalls as in- denters that penetrate the channel base. This approach leads to a closed-form algebraic mapping between applied pressure and cross-sectional deformation that are in strong agreement with ex- perimental measurements and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) simulation. Applications of this new approach to modeling soft microchannel collapse range from lab-on-a-chip microfluidics for pressure-controlled protein filtration to soft-matter pressures sensing. We demonstrate the latter by comparing theoretical predictions with experimental measurements of the pressure-controlled electrical resistance of liquid-phase Gallium alloy microchannels embedded in a soft silicone elas- tomer.

A dynamic method to forecast the wheel slip for antilock braking system and its experimental evaluation.

PubMed

Oniz, Yesim; Kayacan, Erdal; Kaynak, Okyay

2009-04-01

The control of an antilock braking system (ABS) is a difficult problem due to its strongly nonlinear and uncertain characteristics. To overcome this difficulty, the integration of gray-system theory and sliding-mode control is proposed in this paper. This way, the prediction capabilities of the former and the robustness of the latter are combined to regulate optimal wheel slip depending on the vehicle forward velocity. The design approach described is novel, considering that a point, rather than a line, is used as the sliding control surface. The control algorithm is derived and subsequently tested on a quarter vehicle model. Encouraged by the simulation results indicating the ability to overcome the stated difficulties with fast convergence, experimental results are carried out on a laboratory setup. The results presented indicate the potential of the approach in handling difficult real-time control problems.

Exuberant and inhibited children: Person-centered profiles and links to social adjustment.

PubMed

Dollar, Jessica M; Stifter, Cynthia A; Buss, Kristin A

2017-07-01

The current study aimed to substantiate and extend our understanding regarding the existence and developmental pathways of 3 distinct temperament profiles-exuberant, inhibited, and average approach-in a sample of 3.5-year-old children (n = 121). The interactions between temperamental styles and specific types of effortful control, inhibitory control and attentional control, were also examined in predicting kindergarten peer acceptance. Latent profile analysis identified 3 temperamental styles: exuberant, inhibited, and average approach. Support was found for the adaptive role of inhibitory control for exuberant children and attentional control for inhibited children in promoting peer acceptance in kindergarten. These findings add to our current understanding of temperamental profiles by using sophisticated methodology in a slightly older, community sample, as well as the importance of examining specific types of self-regulation to identify which skills lower risk for children of different temperamental styles. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Towards Assessing the Human Trajectory Planning Horizon

PubMed Central

Nitsch, Verena; Meinzer, Dominik; Wollherr, Dirk

2016-01-01

Mobile robots are envisioned to cooperate closely with humans and to integrate seamlessly into a shared environment. For locomotion, these environments resemble traversable areas which are shared between multiple agents like humans and robots. The seamless integration of mobile robots into these environments requires accurate predictions of human locomotion. This work considers optimal control and model predictive control approaches for accurate trajectory prediction and proposes to integrate aspects of human behavior to improve their performance. Recently developed models are not able to reproduce accurately trajectories that result from sudden avoidance maneuvers. Particularly, the human locomotion behavior when handling disturbances from other agents poses a problem. The goal of this work is to investigate whether humans alter their trajectory planning horizon, in order to resolve abruptly emerging collision situations. By modeling humans as model predictive controllers, the influence of the planning horizon is investigated in simulations. Based on these results, an experiment is designed to identify, whether humans initiate a change in their locomotion planning behavior while moving in a complex environment. The results support the hypothesis, that humans employ a shorter planning horizon to avoid collisions that are triggered by unexpected disturbances. Observations presented in this work are expected to further improve the generalizability and accuracy of prediction methods based on dynamic models. PMID:27936015

Towards Assessing the Human Trajectory Planning Horizon.

PubMed

Carton, Daniel; Nitsch, Verena; Meinzer, Dominik; Wollherr, Dirk

2016-01-01

Mobile robots are envisioned to cooperate closely with humans and to integrate seamlessly into a shared environment. For locomotion, these environments resemble traversable areas which are shared between multiple agents like humans and robots. The seamless integration of mobile robots into these environments requires accurate predictions of human locomotion. This work considers optimal control and model predictive control approaches for accurate trajectory prediction and proposes to integrate aspects of human behavior to improve their performance. Recently developed models are not able to reproduce accurately trajectories that result from sudden avoidance maneuvers. Particularly, the human locomotion behavior when handling disturbances from other agents poses a problem. The goal of this work is to investigate whether humans alter their trajectory planning horizon, in order to resolve abruptly emerging collision situations. By modeling humans as model predictive controllers, the influence of the planning horizon is investigated in simulations. Based on these results, an experiment is designed to identify, whether humans initiate a change in their locomotion planning behavior while moving in a complex environment. The results support the hypothesis, that humans employ a shorter planning horizon to avoid collisions that are triggered by unexpected disturbances. Observations presented in this work are expected to further improve the generalizability and accuracy of prediction methods based on dynamic models.

Prediction of Low Community Sanitation Coverage Using Environmental and Sociodemographic Factors in Amhara Region, Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Oswald, William E.; Stewart, Aisha E. P.; Flanders, W. Dana; Kramer, Michael R.; Endeshaw, Tekola; Zerihun, Mulat; Melaku, Birhanu; Sata, Eshetu; Gessesse, Demelash; Teferi, Tesfaye; Tadesse, Zerihun; Guadie, Birhan; King, Jonathan D.; Emerson, Paul M.; Callahan, Elizabeth K.; Moe, Christine L.; Clasen, Thomas F.

2016-01-01

This study developed and validated a model for predicting the probability that communities in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, have low sanitation coverage, based on environmental and sociodemographic conditions. Community sanitation coverage was measured between 2011 and 2014 through trachoma control program evaluation surveys. Information on environmental and sociodemographic conditions was obtained from available data sources and linked with community data using a geographic information system. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of low community sanitation coverage (< 20% versus ≥ 20%). The selected model was geographically and temporally validated. Model-predicted probabilities of low community sanitation coverage were mapped. Among 1,502 communities, 344 (22.90%) had coverage below 20%. The selected model included measures for high topsoil gravel content, an indicator for low-lying land, population density, altitude, and rainfall and had reasonable predictive discrimination (area under the curve = 0.75, 95% confidence interval = 0.72, 0.78). Measures of soil stability were strongly associated with low community sanitation coverage, controlling for community wealth, and other factors. A model using available environmental and sociodemographic data predicted low community sanitation coverage for areas across Amhara Region with fair discrimination. This approach could assist sanitation programs and trachoma control programs, scaling up or in hyperendemic areas, to target vulnerable areas with additional activities or alternate technologies. PMID:27430547

Predictive classification of pediatric bipolar disorder using atlas-based diffusion weighted imaging and support vector machines.

PubMed

Mwangi, Benson; Wu, Mon-Ju; Bauer, Isabelle E; Modi, Haina; Zeni, Cristian P; Zunta-Soares, Giovana B; Hasan, Khader M; Soares, Jair C

2015-11-30

Previous studies have reported abnormalities of white-matter diffusivity in pediatric bipolar disorder. However, it has not been established whether these abnormalities are able to distinguish individual subjects with pediatric bipolar disorder from healthy controls with a high specificity and sensitivity. Diffusion-weighted imaging scans were acquired from 16 youths diagnosed with DSM-IV bipolar disorder and 16 demographically matched healthy controls. Regional white matter tissue microstructural measurements such as fractional anisotropy, axial diffusivity and radial diffusivity were computed using an atlas-based approach. These measurements were used to 'train' a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm to predict new or 'unseen' subjects' diagnostic labels. The SVM algorithm predicted individual subjects with specificity=87.5%, sensitivity=68.75%, accuracy=78.12%, positive predictive value=84.62%, negative predictive value=73.68%, area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC)=0.7812 and chi-square p-value=0.0012. A pattern of reduced regional white matter fractional anisotropy was observed in pediatric bipolar disorder patients. These results suggest that atlas-based diffusion weighted imaging measurements can distinguish individual pediatric bipolar disorder patients from healthy controls. Notably, from a clinical perspective these findings will contribute to the pathophysiological understanding of pediatric bipolar disorder. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A study of the prediction of cruise noise and laminar flow control noise criteria for subsonic air transports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swift, G.; Mungur, P.

1979-01-01

General procedures for the prediction of component noise levels incident upon airframe surfaces during cruise are developed. Contributing noise sources are those associated with the propulsion system, the airframe and the laminar flow control (LFC) system. Transformation procedures from the best prediction base of each noise source to the transonic cruise condition are established. Two approaches to LFC/acoustic criteria are developed. The first is a semi-empirical extension of the X-21 LFC/acoustic criteria to include sensitivity to the spectrum and directionality of the sound field. In the second, the more fundamental problem of how sound excites boundary layer disturbances is analyzed by deriving and solving an inhomogeneous Orr-Sommerfeld equation in which the source terms are proportional to the production and dissipation of sound induced fluctuating vorticity. Numerical solutions are obtained and compared with corresponding measurements. Recommendations are made to improve and validate both the cruise noise prediction methods and the LFC/acoustic criteria.

Inflight Characterization of the Cassini Spacecraft Propellant Slosh and Structural Frequencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Allan Y.; Stupik, Joan

2015-01-01

While there has been extensive theoretical and analytical research regarding the characterization of spacecraft propellant slosh and structural frequencies, there have been limited studies to compare the analytical predictions with measured flight data. This paper uses flight telemetry from the Cassini spacecraft to get estimates of high-g propellant slosh frequencies and the magnetometer boom frequency characteristics, and compares these values with those predicted by theoretical works. Most Cassini attitude control data are available at a telemetry frequency of 0.5 Hz. Moreover, liquid sloshing is attenuated by propellant management device and attitude controllers. Identification of slosh and structural frequency are made on a best-effort basis. This paper reviews the analytical approaches that were used to predict the Cassini propellant slosh frequencies. The predicted frequencies are then compared with those estimated using telemetry from selected Cassini burns where propellant sloshing was observed (such as the Saturn Orbit Insertion burn). Determination of the magnetometer boom structural frequency is also discussed.

Clinical Trials for Predictive Medicine—New Challenges and Paradigms*

PubMed Central

Simon, Richard

2014-01-01

Background Developments in biotechnology and genomics have increased the focus of biostatisticians on prediction problems. This has led to many exciting developments for predictive modeling where the number of variables is larger than the number of cases. Heterogeneity of human diseases and new technology for characterizing them presents new opportunities and challenges for the design and analysis of clinical trials. Purpose In oncology, treatment of broad populations with regimens that do not benefit most patients is less economically sustainable with expensive molecularly targeted therapeutics. The established molecular heterogeneity of human diseases requires the development of new paradigms for the design and analysis of randomized clinical trials as a reliable basis for predictive medicine[1, 2]. Results We have reviewed prospective designs for the development of new therapeutics with candidate predictive biomarkers. We have also outlined a prediction based approach to the analysis of randomized clinical trials that both preserves the type I error and provides a reliable internally validated basis for predicting which patients are most likely or unlikely to benefit from the new regimen. Conclusions Developing new treatments with predictive biomarkers for identifying the patients who are most likely or least likely to benefit makes drug development more complex. But for many new oncology drugs it is the only science based approach and should increase the chance of success. It may also lead to more consistency in results among trials and has obvious benefits for reducing the number of patients who ultimately receive expensive drugs which expose them risks of adverse events but no benefit. This approach also has great potential value for controlling societal expenditures on health care. Development of treatments with predictive biomarkers requires major changes in the standard paradigms for the design and analysis of clinical trials. Some of the key assumptions upon which current methods are based are no longer valid. In addition to reviewing a variety of new clinical trial designs for co-development of treatments and predictive biomarkers, we have outlined a prediction based approach to the analysis of randomized clinical trials. This is a very structured approach whose use requires careful prospective planning. It requires further development but may serve as a basis for a new generation of predictive clinical trials which provide the kinds of reliable individualized information which physicians and patients have long sought, but which have not been available from the past use of post-hoc subset analysis. PMID:20338899

Toward Malaria Risk Prediction in Afghanistan Using Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safi, N.; Adimi, F.; Soebiyanto, R. P.; Kiang, R. K.

2010-01-01

Malaria causes more than one million deaths every year worldwide, with most of the mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is also a significant public health concern in Afghanistan, with approximately 60% of the population, or nearly 14 million people, living in a malaria-endemic area. Malaria transmission has been shown to be dependent on a number of environmental and meteorological variables. For countries in the tropics and the subtropics, rainfall is normally the most important variable, except for regions with high altitude where temperature may also be important. Afghanistan s diverse landscape contributes to the heterogeneous malaria distribution. Understanding the environmental effects on malaria transmission is essential to the effective control of malaria in Afghanistan. Provincial malaria data gathered by Health Posts in 23 provinces during 2004-2007 are used in this study. Remotely sensed geophysical parameters, including precipitation from TRMM, and surface temperature and vegetation index from MODIS are used to derive the empirical relationship between malaria cases and these geophysical parameters. Both neural network methods and regression analyses are used to examine the environmental dependency of malaria transmission. And the trained models are used for predicting future transmission. While neural network methods are intrinsically more adaptive for nonlinear relationship, the regression approach lends itself in providing statistical significance measures. Our results indicate that NDVI is the strongest predictor. This reflects the role of irrigation, instead of precipitation, in Afghanistan for agricultural production. The second strongest prediction is surface temperature. Precipitation is not shown as a significant predictor, contrary to other malarious countries in the tropics or subtropics. With the regression approach, the malaria time series are modelled well, with average R2 of 0.845. For cumulative 6-month prediction of malaria cases, the average provincial accuracy reaches 91%. The developed predictive and early warning capabilities support the Third Strategic Approach of the WHO EMRO Malaria Control and Elimination Plan.

Prediction of aircraft handling qualities using analytical models of the human pilot

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, R. A.

1982-01-01

The optimal control model (OCM) of the human pilot is applied to the study of aircraft handling qualities. Attention is focused primarily on longitudinal tasks. The modeling technique differs from previous applications of the OCM in that considerable effort is expended in simplifying the pilot/vehicle analysis. After briefly reviewing the OCM, a technique for modeling the pilot controlling higher order systems is introduced. Following this, a simple criterion for determining the susceptibility of an aircraft to pilot-induced oscillations (PIO) is formulated. Finally, a model-based metric for pilot rating prediction is discussed. The resulting modeling procedure provides a relatively simple, yet unified approach to the study of a variety of handling qualities problems.

Prediction of aircraft handling qualities using analytical models of the human pilot

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, R. A.

1982-01-01

The optimal control model (OCM) of the human pilot is applied to the study of aircraft handling qualities. Attention is focused primarily on longitudinal tasks. The modeling technique differs from previous applications of the OCM in that considerable effort is expended in simplifying the pilot/vehicle analysis. After briefly reviewing the OCM, a technique for modeling the pilot controlling higher order systems is introduced. Following this, a simple criterion for determining the susceptibility of an aircraft to pilot induced oscillations is formulated. Finally, a model based metric for pilot rating prediction is discussed. The resulting modeling procedure provides a relatively simple, yet unified approach to the study of a variety of handling qualities problems.

The insertion of human dynamics models in the flight control loops of V/STOL research aircraft. Appendix 2: The optimal control model of a pilot in V/STOL aircraft control loops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zipf, Mark E.

1989-01-01

An overview is presented of research work focussed on the design and insertion of classical models of human pilot dynamics within the flight control loops of V/STOL aircraft. The pilots were designed and configured for use in integrated control system research and design. The models of human behavior that were considered are: McRuer-Krendel (a single variable transfer function model); and Optimal Control Model (a multi-variable approach based on optimal control and stochastic estimation theory). These models attempt to predict human control response characteristics when confronted with compensatory tracking and state regulation tasks. An overview, mathematical description, and discussion of predictive limitations of the pilot models is presented. Design strategies and closed loop insertion configurations are introduced and considered for various flight control scenarios. Models of aircraft dynamics (both transfer function and state space based) are developed and discussed for their use in pilot design and application. Pilot design and insertion are illustrated for various flight control objectives. Results of pilot insertion within the control loops of two V/STOL research aricraft (Sikorski Black Hawk UH-60A, McDonnell Douglas Harrier II AV-8B) are presented and compared against actual pilot flight data. Conclusions are reached on the ability of the pilot models to adequately predict human behavior when confronted with similar control objectives.

Identifying Structure-Property Relationships Through DREAM.3D Representative Volume Elements and DAMASK Crystal Plasticity Simulations: An Integrated Computational Materials Engineering Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diehl, Martin; Groeber, Michael; Haase, Christian; Molodov, Dmitri A.; Roters, Franz; Raabe, Dierk

2017-05-01

Predicting, understanding, and controlling the mechanical behavior is the most important task when designing structural materials. Modern alloy systems—in which multiple deformation mechanisms, phases, and defects are introduced to overcome the inverse strength-ductility relationship—give raise to multiple possibilities for modifying the deformation behavior, rendering traditional, exclusively experimentally-based alloy development workflows inappropriate. For fast and efficient alloy design, it is therefore desirable to predict the mechanical performance of candidate alloys by simulation studies to replace time- and resource-consuming mechanical tests. Simulation tools suitable for this task need to correctly predict the mechanical behavior in dependence of alloy composition, microstructure, texture, phase fractions, and processing history. Here, an integrated computational materials engineering approach based on the open source software packages DREAM.3D and DAMASK (Düsseldorf Advanced Materials Simulation Kit) that enables such virtual material development is presented. More specific, our approach consists of the following three steps: (1) acquire statistical quantities that describe a microstructure, (2) build a representative volume element based on these quantities employing DREAM.3D, and (3) evaluate the representative volume using a predictive crystal plasticity material model provided by DAMASK. Exemplarily, these steps are here conducted for a high-manganese steel.

Proton exchange membrane fuel cell model for aging predictions: Simulated equivalent active surface area loss and comparisons with durability tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robin, C.; Gérard, M.; Quinaud, M.; d'Arbigny, J.; Bultel, Y.

2016-09-01

The prediction of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) lifetime is one of the major challenges to optimize both material properties and dynamic control of the fuel cell system. In this study, by a multiscale modeling approach, a mechanistic catalyst dissolution model is coupled to a dynamic PEMFC cell model to predict the performance loss of the PEMFC. Results are compared to two 2000-h experimental aging tests. More precisely, an original approach is introduced to estimate the loss of an equivalent active surface area during an aging test. Indeed, when the computed Electrochemical Catalyst Surface Area profile is fitted on the experimental measures from Cyclic Voltammetry, the computed performance loss of the PEMFC is underestimated. To be able to predict the performance loss measured by polarization curves during the aging test, an equivalent active surface area is obtained by a model inversion. This methodology enables to successfully find back the experimental cell voltage decay during time. The model parameters are fitted from the polarization curves so that they include the global degradation. Moreover, the model captures the aging heterogeneities along the surface of the cell observed experimentally. Finally, a second 2000-h durability test in dynamic operating conditions validates the approach.

Integrating machine learning to achieve an automatic parameter prediction for practical continuous-variable quantum key distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Weiqi; Huang, Peng; Peng, Jinye; Fan, Jianping; Zeng, Guihua

2018-02-01

For supporting practical quantum key distribution (QKD), it is critical to stabilize the physical parameters of signals, e.g., the intensity, phase, and polarization of the laser signals, so that such QKD systems can achieve better performance and practical security. In this paper, an approach is developed by integrating a support vector regression (SVR) model to optimize the performance and practical security of the QKD system. First, a SVR model is learned to precisely predict the time-along evolutions of the physical parameters of signals. Second, such predicted time-along evolutions are employed as feedback to control the QKD system for achieving the optimal performance and practical security. Finally, our proposed approach is exemplified by using the intensity evolution of laser light and a local oscillator pulse in the Gaussian modulated coherent state QKD system. Our experimental results have demonstrated three significant benefits of our SVR-based approach: (1) it can allow the QKD system to achieve optimal performance and practical security, (2) it does not require any additional resources and any real-time monitoring module to support automatic prediction of the time-along evolutions of the physical parameters of signals, and (3) it is applicable to any measurable physical parameter of signals in the practical QKD system.

Engineering bacterial translation initiation - Do we have all the tools we need?

PubMed

Vigar, Justin R J; Wieden, Hans-Joachim

2017-11-01

Reliable tools that allow precise and predictable control over gene expression are critical for the success of nearly all bioengineering applications. Translation initiation is the most regulated phase during protein biosynthesis, and is therefore a promising target for exerting control over gene expression. At the translational level, the copy number of a protein can be fine-tuned by altering the interaction between the translation initiation region of an mRNA and the ribosome. These interactions can be controlled by modulating the mRNA structure using numerous approaches, including small molecule ligands, RNAs, or RNA-binding proteins. A variety of naturally occurring regulatory elements have been repurposed, facilitating advances in synthetic gene regulation strategies. The pursuit of a comprehensive understanding of mechanisms governing translation initiation provides the framework for future engineering efforts. Here we outline state-of-the-art strategies used to predictably control translation initiation in bacteria. We also discuss current limitations in the field and future goals. Due to its function as the rate-determining step, initiation is the ideal point to exert effective translation regulation. Several engineering tools are currently available to rationally design the initiation characteristics of synthetic mRNAs. However, improvements are required to increase the predictability, effectiveness, and portability of these tools. Predictable and reliable control over translation initiation will allow greater predictability when designing, constructing, and testing genetic circuits. The ability to build more complex circuits predictably will advance synthetic biology and contribute to our fundamental understanding of the underlying principles of these processes. "This article is part of a Special Issue entitled "Biochemistry of Synthetic Biology - Recent Developments" Guest Editor: Dr. Ilka Heinemann and Dr. Patrick O'Donoghue. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structure-reactivity modeling using mixture-based representation of chemical reactions.

PubMed

Polishchuk, Pavel; Madzhidov, Timur; Gimadiev, Timur; Bodrov, Andrey; Nugmanov, Ramil; Varnek, Alexandre

2017-09-01

We describe a novel approach of reaction representation as a combination of two mixtures: a mixture of reactants and a mixture of products. In turn, each mixture can be encoded using an earlier reported approach involving simplex descriptors (SiRMS). The feature vector representing these two mixtures results from either concatenated product and reactant descriptors or the difference between descriptors of products and reactants. This reaction representation doesn't need an explicit labeling of a reaction center. The rigorous "product-out" cross-validation (CV) strategy has been suggested. Unlike the naïve "reaction-out" CV approach based on a random selection of items, the proposed one provides with more realistic estimation of prediction accuracy for reactions resulting in novel products. The new methodology has been applied to model rate constants of E2 reactions. It has been demonstrated that the use of the fragment control domain applicability approach significantly increases prediction accuracy of the models. The models obtained with new "mixture" approach performed better than those required either explicit (Condensed Graph of Reaction) or implicit (reaction fingerprints) reaction center labeling.

Reflections on the Anopheles gambiae genome sequence, transgenic mosquitoes and the prospect for controlling malaria and other vector borne diseases.

PubMed

Tabachnick, Walter J

2003-09-01

The completion of the Anopheles gambiae Giles genome sequencing project is a milestone toward developing more effective strategies in reducing the impact of malaria and other vector borne diseases. The successes in developing transgenic approaches using mosquitoes have provided another essential new tool for further progress in basic vector genetics and the goal of disease control. The use of transgenic approaches to develop refractory mosquitoes is also possible. The ability to use genome sequence to identify genes, and transgenic approaches to construct refractory mosquitoes, has provided the opportunity that with the future development of an appropriate genetic drive system, refractory transgenes can be released into vector populations leading to nontransmitting mosquitoes. An. gambiae populations incapable of transmitting malaria. This compelling strategy will be very difficult to achieve and will require a broad substantial research program for success. The fundamental information that is required on genome structure, gene function and environmental effects on genetic expression are largely unknown. The ability to predict gene effects on phenotype is rudimentary, particularly in natural populations. As a result, the release of a refractory transgene into natural mosquito populations is imprecise and there is little ability to predict unintended consequences. The new genetic tools at hand provide opportunities to address an array of important issues, many of which can have immediate impact on the effectiveness of a host of strategies to control vector borne disease. Transgenic release approaches represent only one strategy that should be pursued. A balanced research program is required.

Simplifying the complexity of resistance heterogeneity in metastasis

PubMed Central

Lavi, Orit; Greene, James M.; Levy, Doron; Gottesman, Michael M.

2014-01-01

The main goal of treatment regimens for metastasis is to control growth rates, not eradicate all cancer cells. Mathematical models offer methodologies that incorporate high-throughput data with dynamic effects on net growth. The ideal approach would simplify, but not over-simplify, a complex problem into meaningful and manageable estimators that predict a patient’s response to specific treatments. Here, we explore three fundamental approaches with different assumptions concerning resistance mechanisms, in which the cells are categorized into either discrete compartments or described by a continuous range of resistance levels. We argue in favor of modeling resistance as a continuum and demonstrate how integrating cellular growth rates, density-dependent versus exponential growth, and intratumoral heterogeneity improves predictions concerning the resistance heterogeneity of metastases. PMID:24491979

Model-Based Individualized Treatment of Chemotherapeutics: Bayesian Population Modeling and Dose Optimization

PubMed Central

Jayachandran, Devaraj; Laínez-Aguirre, José; Rundell, Ann; Vik, Terry; Hannemann, Robert; Reklaitis, Gintaras; Ramkrishna, Doraiswami

2015-01-01

6-Mercaptopurine (6-MP) is one of the key drugs in the treatment of many pediatric cancers, auto immune diseases and inflammatory bowel disease. 6-MP is a prodrug, converted to an active metabolite 6-thioguanine nucleotide (6-TGN) through enzymatic reaction involving thiopurine methyltransferase (TPMT). Pharmacogenomic variation observed in the TPMT enzyme produces a significant variation in drug response among the patient population. Despite 6-MP’s widespread use and observed variation in treatment response, efforts at quantitative optimization of dose regimens for individual patients are limited. In addition, research efforts devoted on pharmacogenomics to predict clinical responses are proving far from ideal. In this work, we present a Bayesian population modeling approach to develop a pharmacological model for 6-MP metabolism in humans. In the face of scarcity of data in clinical settings, a global sensitivity analysis based model reduction approach is used to minimize the parameter space. For accurate estimation of sensitive parameters, robust optimal experimental design based on D-optimality criteria was exploited. With the patient-specific model, a model predictive control algorithm is used to optimize the dose scheduling with the objective of maintaining the 6-TGN concentration within its therapeutic window. More importantly, for the first time, we show how the incorporation of information from different levels of biological chain-of response (i.e. gene expression-enzyme phenotype-drug phenotype) plays a critical role in determining the uncertainty in predicting therapeutic target. The model and the control approach can be utilized in the clinical setting to individualize 6-MP dosing based on the patient’s ability to metabolize the drug instead of the traditional standard-dose-for-all approach. PMID:26226448

Design Principles for a Comprehensive Library System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Uluakar, Tamer; And Others

1981-01-01

Describes an online design featuring circulation control, catalog access, and serial holdings that uses an incremental approach to system development. Utilizing a dedicated computer, this second of three releases pays particular attention to present and predicted computing capabilities as well as trends in library automation. (Author/RAA)

Large truck crashes in Texas : a predictive approach for identifying those at higher risk

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-08-01

The objective of this research is to characterize large truck safety levels in Texas on the basis of driver, vehicle, cargo, and carrier traits while controlling for the effects of crash and operating environment conditions. Data to support this inve...

A Simple Approach To Assessing Copper Pitting Corrosion Tendenices and Developing Control Strategies

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this research was to assess the effectiveness of a simple pipe loop system and protocol to predict localized corrosion, and to assess treatment alternatives for a drinking water that has been associated with customer complaints of pinhole leaks.

Rapprochement in Late Adolescent Separation-Individuation: A Structural Equations Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quintana, Stephen M.; Lapsley, Daniel K.

1990-01-01

Attempted to integrate indices of connection and individuality into a single, positively related construct. College students (n=101) responded to measures of parenting style, individuation, and ego identity. Results suggest that parental control restricts successful individuation but that adjustment on individuation indices predicts advanced…

Novel Functional Genomics Approaches: A Promising Future in the Combat Against Plant Viruses.

PubMed

Fondong, Vincent N; Nagalakshmi, Ugrappa; Dinesh-Kumar, Savithramma P

2016-10-01

Advances in functional genomics and genome editing approaches have provided new opportunities and potential to accelerate plant virus control efforts through modification of host and viral genomes in a precise and predictable manner. Here, we discuss application of RNA-based technologies, including artificial micro RNA, transacting small interfering RNA, and Cas9 (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeat-associated protein 9), which are currently being successfully deployed in generating virus-resistant plants. We further discuss the reverse genetics approach, targeting induced local lesions in genomes (TILLING) and its variant, known as EcoTILLING, that are used in the identification of plant virus recessive resistance gene alleles. In addition to describing specific applications of these technologies in plant virus control, this review discusses their advantages and limitations.

Design of Accelerator Online Simulator Server Using Structured Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Guobao; /Brookhaven; Chu, Chungming

2012-07-06

Model based control plays an important role for a modern accelerator during beam commissioning, beam study, and even daily operation. With a realistic model, beam behaviour can be predicted and therefore effectively controlled. The approach used by most current high level application environments is to use a built-in simulation engine and feed a realistic model into that simulation engine. Instead of this traditional monolithic structure, a new approach using a client-server architecture is under development. An on-line simulator server is accessed via network accessible structured data. With this approach, a user can easily access multiple simulation codes. This paper describesmore » the design, implementation, and current status of PVData, which defines the structured data, and PVAccess, which provides network access to the structured data.« less

Ensemble-based prediction of RNA secondary structures.

PubMed

Aghaeepour, Nima; Hoos, Holger H

2013-04-24

Accurate structure prediction methods play an important role for the understanding of RNA function. Energy-based, pseudoknot-free secondary structure prediction is one of the most widely used and versatile approaches, and improved methods for this task have received much attention over the past five years. Despite the impressive progress that as been achieved in this area, existing evaluations of the prediction accuracy achieved by various algorithms do not provide a comprehensive, statistically sound assessment. Furthermore, while there is increasing evidence that no prediction algorithm consistently outperforms all others, no work has been done to exploit the complementary strengths of multiple approaches. In this work, we present two contributions to the area of RNA secondary structure prediction. Firstly, we use state-of-the-art, resampling-based statistical methods together with a previously published and increasingly widely used dataset of high-quality RNA structures to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of existing RNA secondary structure prediction procedures. The results from this evaluation clarify the performance relationship between ten well-known existing energy-based pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction methods and clearly demonstrate the progress that has been achieved in recent years. Secondly, we introduce AveRNA, a generic and powerful method for combining a set of existing secondary structure prediction procedures into an ensemble-based method that achieves significantly higher prediction accuracies than obtained from any of its component procedures. Our new, ensemble-based method, AveRNA, improves the state of the art for energy-based, pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction by exploiting the complementary strengths of multiple existing prediction procedures, as demonstrated using a state-of-the-art statistical resampling approach. In addition, AveRNA allows an intuitive and effective control of the trade-off between false negative and false positive base pair predictions. Finally, AveRNA can make use of arbitrary sets of secondary structure prediction procedures and can therefore be used to leverage improvements in prediction accuracy offered by algorithms and energy models developed in the future. Our data, MATLAB software and a web-based version of AveRNA are publicly available at http://www.cs.ubc.ca/labs/beta/Software/AveRNA.

Incremental inverse kinematics based vision servo for autonomous robotic capture of non-cooperative space debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Gangqi; Zhu, Z. H.

2016-04-01

This paper proposed a new incremental inverse kinematics based vision servo approach for robotic manipulators to capture a non-cooperative target autonomously. The target's pose and motion are estimated by a vision system using integrated photogrammetry and EKF algorithm. Based on the estimated pose and motion of the target, the instantaneous desired position of the end-effector is predicted by inverse kinematics and the robotic manipulator is moved incrementally from its current configuration subject to the joint speed limits. This approach effectively eliminates the multiple solutions in the inverse kinematics and increases the robustness of the control algorithm. The proposed approach is validated by a hardware-in-the-loop simulation, where the pose and motion of the non-cooperative target is estimated by a real vision system. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed estimation approach for the target and the incremental control strategy for the robotic manipulator.

Prediction of bacterial small RNAs in the RsmA (CsrA) and ToxT pathways: a machine learning approach.

PubMed

Fakhry, Carl Tony; Kulkarni, Prajna; Chen, Ping; Kulkarni, Rahul; Zarringhalam, Kourosh

2017-08-22

Small RNAs (sRNAs) constitute an important class of post-transcriptional regulators that control critical cellular processes in bacteria. Recent research using high-throughput transcriptomic approaches has led to a dramatic increase in the discovery of bacterial sRNAs. However, it is generally believed that the currently identified sRNAs constitute a limited subset of the bacterial sRNA repertoire. In several cases, sRNAs belonging to a specific class are already known and the challenge is to identify additional sRNAs belonging to the same class. In such cases, machine-learning approaches can be used to predict novel sRNAs in a given class. In this work, we develop novel bioinformatics approaches that integrate sequence and structure-based features to train machine-learning models for the discovery of bacterial sRNAs. We show that features derived from recurrent structural motifs in the ensemble of low energy secondary structures can distinguish the RNA classes with high accuracy. We apply this approach to predict new members in two broad classes of bacterial small RNAs: 1) sRNAs that bind to the RNA-binding protein RsmA/CsrA in diverse bacterial species and 2) sRNAs regulated by the master regulator of virulence, ToxT, in Vibrio cholerae. The involvement of sRNAs in bacterial adaptation to changing environments is an increasingly recurring theme in current research in microbiology. It is likely that future research, combining experimental and computational approaches, will discover many more examples of sRNAs as components of critical regulatory pathways in bacteria. We have developed a novel approach for prediction of small RNA regulators in important bacterial pathways. This approach can be applied to specific classes of sRNAs for which several members have been identified and the challenge is to identify additional sRNAs.

Texting while driving: psychosocial influences on young people's texting intentions and behaviour.

PubMed

Nemme, Heidi E; White, Katherine M

2010-07-01

Despite the dangers and illegality, there is a continued prevalence of texting while driving amongst young Australian drivers. The present study tested an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB) to predict young drivers' (17-24 years) intentions to [1] send and [2] read text messages while driving. Participants (n=169 university students) completed measures of attitudes, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control, intentions, and the additional social influence measures of group norm and moral norm. One week later, participants reported on the number of texts sent and read while driving in the previous week. Attitude predicted intentions to both send and read texts while driving, and subjective norm and perceived behavioural control determined sending, but not reading, intentions. Further, intention, but not perceptions of control, predicted both texting behaviours 1 week later. In addition, both group norm and moral norm added predictive ability to the model. These findings provide support for the TPB in understanding students' decisions to text while driving as well as the inclusion of additional normative influences within this context, suggesting that a multi-strategy approach is likely to be useful in attempts to reduce the incidence of these risky driving behaviours. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combining chemoinformatics with bioinformatics: in silico prediction of bacterial flavor-forming pathways by a chemical systems biology approach "reverse pathway engineering".

PubMed

Liu, Mengjin; Bienfait, Bruno; Sacher, Oliver; Gasteiger, Johann; Siezen, Roland J; Nauta, Arjen; Geurts, Jan M W

2014-01-01

The incompleteness of genome-scale metabolic models is a major bottleneck for systems biology approaches, which are based on large numbers of metabolites as identified and quantified by metabolomics. Many of the revealed secondary metabolites and/or their derivatives, such as flavor compounds, are non-essential in metabolism, and many of their synthesis pathways are unknown. In this study, we describe a novel approach, Reverse Pathway Engineering (RPE), which combines chemoinformatics and bioinformatics analyses, to predict the "missing links" between compounds of interest and their possible metabolic precursors by providing plausible chemical and/or enzymatic reactions. We demonstrate the added-value of the approach by using flavor-forming pathways in lactic acid bacteria (LAB) as an example. Established metabolic routes leading to the formation of flavor compounds from leucine were successfully replicated. Novel reactions involved in flavor formation, i.e. the conversion of alpha-hydroxy-isocaproate to 3-methylbutanoic acid and the synthesis of dimethyl sulfide, as well as the involved enzymes were successfully predicted. These new insights into the flavor-formation mechanisms in LAB can have a significant impact on improving the control of aroma formation in fermented food products. Since the input reaction databases and compounds are highly flexible, the RPE approach can be easily extended to a broad spectrum of applications, amongst others health/disease biomarker discovery as well as synthetic biology.

A computational language approach to modeling prose recall in schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Rosenstein, Mark; Diaz-Asper, Catherine; Foltz, Peter W.; Elvevåg, Brita

2014-01-01

Many cortical disorders are associated with memory problems. In schizophrenia, verbal memory deficits are a hallmark feature. However, the exact nature of this deficit remains elusive. Modeling aspects of language features used in memory recall have the potential to provide means for measuring these verbal processes. We employ computational language approaches to assess time-varying semantic and sequential properties of prose recall at various retrieval intervals (immediate, 30 min and 24 h later) in patients with schizophrenia, unaffected siblings and healthy unrelated control participants. First, we model the recall data to quantify the degradation of performance with increasing retrieval interval and the effect of diagnosis (i.e., group membership) on performance. Next we model the human scoring of recall performance using an n-gram language sequence technique, and then with a semantic feature based on Latent Semantic Analysis. These models show that automated analyses of the recalls can produce scores that accurately mimic human scoring. The final analysis addresses the validity of this approach by ascertaining the ability to predict group membership from models built on the two classes of language features. Taken individually, the semantic feature is most predictive, while a model combining the features improves accuracy of group membership prediction slightly above the semantic feature alone as well as over the human rating approach. We discuss the implications for cognitive neuroscience of such a computational approach in exploring the mechanisms of prose recall. PMID:24709122

A bioinformatics approach to identify patients with symptomatic peanut allergy using peptide microarray immunoassay

PubMed Central

Lin, Jing; Bruni, Francesca M.; Fu, Zhiyan; Maloney, Jennifer; Bardina, Ludmilla; Boner, Attilio L.; Gimenez, Gustavo; Sampson, Hugh A.

2013-01-01

Background Peanut allergy is relatively common, typically permanent, and often severe. Double-blind, placebo-controlled food challenge is considered the gold standard for the diagnosis of food allergy–related disorders. However, the complexity and potential of double-blind, placebo-controlled food challenge to cause life-threatening allergic reactions affects its clinical application. A laboratory test that could accurately diagnose symptomatic peanut allergy would greatly facilitate clinical practice. Objective We sought to develop an allergy diagnostic method that could correctly predict symptomatic peanut allergy by using peptide microarray immunoassays and bioinformatic methods. Methods Microarray immunoassays were performed by using the sera from 62 patients (31 with symptomatic peanut allergy and 31 who had outgrown their peanut allergy or were sensitized but were clinically tolerant to peanut). Specific IgE and IgG4 binding to 419 overlapping peptides (15 mers, 3 offset) covering the amino acid sequences of Ara h 1, Ara h 2, and Ara h 3 were measured by using a peptide microarray immunoassay. Bioinformatic methods were applied for data analysis. Results Individuals with peanut allergy showed significantly greater IgE binding and broader epitope diversity than did peanut-tolerant individuals. No significant difference in IgG4 binding was found between groups. By using machine learning methods, 4 peptide biomarkers were identified and prediction models that can predict the outcome of double-blind, placebo-controlled food challenges with high accuracy were developed by using a combination of the biomarkers. Conclusions In this study, we developed a novel diagnostic approach that can predict peanut allergy with high accuracy by combining the results of a peptide microarray immunoassay and bioinformatic methods. Further studies are needed to validate the efficacy of this assay in clinical practice. PMID:22444503

Which Neuropsychological Tests Predict Progression to Alzheimer’s Disease in Hispanics?

PubMed Central

Weissberger, Gali H.; Salmon, David P.; Bondi, Mark W.; Gollan, Tamar H.

2013-01-01

Objective To investigate which neuropsychological tests predict eventual progression to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in both Hispanic and non-Hispanic individuals. Although our approach was exploratory, we predicted that tests that underestimate cognitive ability in healthy aging Hispanics might not be sensitive to future cognitive decline in this cultural group. Method We compared first-year data of 22 older adults (11 Hispanic) who were diagnosed as cognitively normal but eventually developed AD (decliners), to 60 age- and education-matched controls (27 Hispanic) who remained cognitively normal. To identify tests that may be culturally biased in our sample, we compared Hispanic with non-Hispanic controls on all tests and asked which tests were sensitive to future decline in each cultural group. Results Compared to age-, education-, and gender-matched non-Hispanic controls, Hispanic controls obtained lower scores on tests of language, executive function, and some measures of global cognition. Consistent with our predictions, some tests identified non-Hispanic, but not Hispanic, decliners (vocabulary, semantic fluency). Contrary to our predictions, a number of tests on which Hispanics obtained lower scores than non-Hispanics nevertheless predicted eventual progression to AD in both cultural groups (e.g., Boston Naming Test [BNT], Trails A and B). Conclusions Cross-cultural variation in test sensitivity to decline may reflect greater resistance of medium difficulty items to decline and bilingual advantages that initially protect Hispanics against some aspects of cognitive decline commonly observed in non-Hispanics with preclinical AD. These findings highlight a need for further consideration of cross-cultural differences in neuropsychological test performance and development of culturally unbiased measures. PMID:23688216

Modelling the multidimensional niche by linking functional traits to competitive performance

PubMed Central

Maynard, Daniel S.; Leonard, Kenneth E.; Drake, John M.; Hall, David W.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Bradford, Mark A.

2015-01-01

Linking competitive outcomes to environmental conditions is necessary for understanding species' distributions and responses to environmental change. Despite this importance, generalizable approaches for predicting competitive outcomes across abiotic gradients are lacking, driven largely by the highly complex and context-dependent nature of biotic interactions. Here, we present and empirically test a novel niche model that uses functional traits to model the niche space of organisms and predict competitive outcomes of co-occurring populations across multiple resource gradients. The model makes no assumptions about the underlying mode of competition and instead applies to those settings where relative competitive ability across environments correlates with a quantifiable performance metric. To test the model, a series of controlled microcosm experiments were conducted using genetically related strains of a widespread microbe. The model identified trait microevolution and performance differences among strains, with the predicted competitive ability of each organism mapped across a two-dimensional carbon and nitrogen resource space. Areas of coexistence and competitive dominance between strains were identified, and the predicted competitive outcomes were validated in approximately 95% of the pairings. By linking trait variation to competitive ability, our work demonstrates a generalizable approach for predicting and modelling competitive outcomes across changing environmental contexts. PMID:26136444

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Prediction of final error level in learning and repetitive control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levoci, Peter A.

Repetitive control (RC) is a field that creates controllers to eliminate the effects of periodic disturbances on a feedback control system. The methods have applications in spacecraft problems, to isolate fine pointing equipment from periodic vibration disturbances such as slight imbalances in momentum wheels or cryogenic pumps. A closely related field of control design is iterative learning control (ILC) which aims to eliminate tracking error in a task that repeats, each time starting from the same initial condition. Experiments done on a robot at NASA Langley Research Center showed that the final error levels produced by different candidate repetitive and learning controllers can be very different, even when each controller is analytically proven to converge to zero error in the deterministic case. Real world plant and measurement noise and quantization noise (from analog to digital and digital to analog converters) in these control methods are acted on as if they were error sources that will repeat and should be cancelled, which implies that the algorithms amplify such errors. Methods are developed that predict the final error levels of general first order ILC, of higher order ILC including current cycle learning, and of general RC, in the presence of noise, using frequency response methods. The method involves much less computation than the corresponding time domain approach that involves large matrices. The time domain approach was previously developed for ILC and handles a certain class of ILC methods. Here methods are created to include zero-phase filtering that is very important in creating practical designs. Also, time domain methods are developed for higher order ILC and for repetitive control. Since RC and ILC must be implemented digitally, all of these methods predict final error levels at the sample times. It is shown here that RC can easily converge to small error levels between sample times, but that ILC in most applications will have large and diverging intersample error if in fact zero error is reached at the sample times. This is independent of the ILC law used, and is purely a property of the physical system. Methods are developed to address this issue.

On the stability of von Kármán rotating-disk boundary layers with radial anisotropic surface roughness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrett, S. J.; Cooper, A. J.; Harris, J. H.; Özkan, M.; Segalini, A.; Thomas, P. J.

2016-01-01

We summarise results of a theoretical study investigating the distinct convective instability properties of steady boundary-layer flow over rough rotating disks. A generic roughness pattern of concentric circles with sinusoidal surface undulations in the radial direction is considered. The goal is to compare predictions obtained by means of two alternative, and fundamentally different, modelling approaches for surface roughness for the first time. The motivating rationale is to identify commonalities and isolate results that might potentially represent artefacts associated with the particular methodologies underlying one of the two modelling approaches. The most significant result of practical relevance obtained is that both approaches predict overall stabilising effects on type I instability mode of rotating disk flow. This mode leads to transition of the rotating-disk boundary layer and, more generally, the transition of boundary-layers with a cross-flow profile. Stabilisation of the type 1 mode means that it may be possible to exploit surface roughness for laminar-flow control in boundary layers with a cross-flow component. However, we also find differences between the two sets of model predictions, some subtle and some substantial. These will represent criteria for establishing which of the two alternative approaches is more suitable to correctly describe experimental data when these become available.

Learning to rank image tags with limited training examples.

PubMed

Songhe Feng; Zheyun Feng; Rong Jin

2015-04-01

With an increasing number of images that are available in social media, image annotation has emerged as an important research topic due to its application in image matching and retrieval. Most studies cast image annotation into a multilabel classification problem. The main shortcoming of this approach is that it requires a large number of training images with clean and complete annotations in order to learn a reliable model for tag prediction. We address this limitation by developing a novel approach that combines the strength of tag ranking with the power of matrix recovery. Instead of having to make a binary decision for each tag, our approach ranks tags in the descending order of their relevance to the given image, significantly simplifying the problem. In addition, the proposed method aggregates the prediction models for different tags into a matrix, and casts tag ranking into a matrix recovery problem. It introduces the matrix trace norm to explicitly control the model complexity, so that a reliable prediction model can be learned for tag ranking even when the tag space is large and the number of training images is limited. Experiments on multiple well-known image data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for tag ranking compared with the state-of-the-art approaches for image annotation and tag ranking.

Towards Current Profile Control in ITER: Potential Approaches and Research Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, E.; Barton, J. E.; Wehner, W. P.

2014-10-01

Many challenging plasma control problems still need to be addressed in order for the ITER Plasma Control System (PCS) to be able to successfully achieve the ITER project goals. For instance, setting up a suitable toroidal current density profile is key for one possible advanced scenario characterized by noninductive sustainment of the plasma current and steady-state operation. The nonlinearity and high dimensionality exhibited by the plasma demand a model-based current-profile control synthesis procedure that can accommodate this complexity through embedding the known physics within the design. The development of a model capturing the dynamics of the plasma relevant for control design enables not only the design of feedback controllers for regulation or tracking but also the design of optimal feedforward controllers for a systematic model-based approach to scenario planning, the design of state estimators for a reliable real-time reconstruction of the plasma internal profiles based on limited and noisy diagnostics, and the development of a fast predictive simulation code for closed-loop performance evaluation before implementation. Progress towards control-oriented modeling of the current profile evolution and associated control design has been reported following both data-driven and first-principles-driven approaches. An overview of these two approaches will be provided, as well as a discussion on research needs associated with each one of the model applications described above. Supported by the US Department of Energy under DE-SC0001334 and DE-SC0010661.

Data-Driven Nonlinear Subspace Modeling for Prediction and Control of Molten Iron Quality Indices in Blast Furnace Ironmaking

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Ping; Song, Heda; Wang, Hong

Blast furnace (BF) in ironmaking is a nonlinear dynamic process with complicated physical-chemical reactions, where multi-phase and multi-field coupling and large time delay occur during its operation. In BF operation, the molten iron temperature (MIT) as well as Si, P and S contents of molten iron are the most essential molten iron quality (MIQ) indices, whose measurement, modeling and control have always been important issues in metallurgic engineering and automation field. This paper develops a novel data-driven nonlinear state space modeling for the prediction and control of multivariate MIQ indices by integrating hybrid modeling and control techniques. First, to improvemore » modeling efficiency, a data-driven hybrid method combining canonical correlation analysis and correlation analysis is proposed to identify the most influential controllable variables as the modeling inputs from multitudinous factors would affect the MIQ indices. Then, a Hammerstein model for the prediction of MIQ indices is established using the LS-SVM based nonlinear subspace identification method. Such a model is further simplified by using piecewise cubic Hermite interpolating polynomial method to fit the complex nonlinear kernel function. Compared to the original Hammerstein model, this simplified model can not only significantly reduce the computational complexity, but also has almost the same reliability and accuracy for a stable prediction of MIQ indices. Last, in order to verify the practicability of the developed model, it is applied in designing a genetic algorithm based nonlinear predictive controller for multivariate MIQ indices by directly taking the established model as a predictor. Industrial experiments show the advantages and effectiveness of the proposed approach.« less

An approach to the mathematical modelling of a controlled ecological life support system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Averner, M. M.

1981-01-01

An approach to the design of a computer based model of a closed ecological life-support system suitable for use in extraterrestrial habitats is presented. The model is based on elemental mass balance and contains representations of the metabolic activities of biological components. The model can be used as a tool in evaluating preliminary designs for closed regenerative life support systems and as a method for predicting the behavior of such systems.

Evaluation of classifier topologies for the real-time classification of simultaneous limb motions.

PubMed

Ortiz-Catalan, Max; Branemark, Rickard; Hakansson, Bo

2013-01-01

The prediction of motion intent through the decoding of myoelectric signals has the potential to improve the functionally of limb prostheses. Considerable research on individual motion classifiers has been done to exploit this idea. A drawback with the individual prediction approach, however, is its limitation to serial control, which is slow, cumbersome, and unnatural. In this work, different classifier topologies suitable for the decoding of mixed classes, and thus capable of predicting simultaneous motions, were investigated in real-time. These topologies resulted in higher offline accuracies than previously achieved, but more importantly, positive indications of their suitability for real-time systems were found. Furthermore, in order to facilitate further development, benchmarking, and cooperation, the algorithms and data generated in this study are freely available as part of BioPatRec, an open source framework for the development of advanced prosthetic control strategies.

Emotional Intelligence predicts individual differences in social exchange reasoning.

PubMed

Reis, Deidre L; Brackett, Marc A; Shamosh, Noah A; Kiehl, Kent A; Salovey, Peter; Gray, Jeremy R

2007-04-15

When assessed with performance measures, Emotional Intelligence (EI) correlates positively with the quality of social relationships. However, the bases of such correlations are not understood in terms of cognitive and neural information processing mechanisms. We investigated whether a performance measure of EI is related to reasoning about social situations (specifically social exchange reasoning) using versions of the Wason Card Selection Task. In an fMRI study (N=16), higher EI predicted hemodynamic responses during social reasoning in the left frontal polar and left anterior temporal brain regions, even when controlling for responses on a very closely matched task (precautionary reasoning). In a larger behavioral study (N=48), higher EI predicted faster social exchange reasoning, after controlling for precautionary reasoning. The results are the first to directly suggest that EI is mediated in part by mechanisms supporting social reasoning and validate a new approach to investigating EI in terms of more basic information processing mechanisms.

Using Bayesian analysis in repeated preclinical in vivo studies for a more effective use of animals.

PubMed

Walley, Rosalind; Sherington, John; Rastrick, Joe; Detrait, Eric; Hanon, Etienne; Watt, Gillian

2016-05-01

Whilst innovative Bayesian approaches are increasingly used in clinical studies, in the preclinical area Bayesian methods appear to be rarely used in the reporting of pharmacology data. This is particularly surprising in the context of regularly repeated in vivo studies where there is a considerable amount of data from historical control groups, which has potential value. This paper describes our experience with introducing Bayesian analysis for such studies using a Bayesian meta-analytic predictive approach. This leads naturally either to an informative prior for a control group as part of a full Bayesian analysis of the next study or using a predictive distribution to replace a control group entirely. We use quality control charts to illustrate study-to-study variation to the scientists and describe informative priors in terms of their approximate effective numbers of animals. We describe two case studies of animal models: the lipopolysaccharide-induced cytokine release model used in inflammation and the novel object recognition model used to screen cognitive enhancers, both of which show the advantage of a Bayesian approach over the standard frequentist analysis. We conclude that using Bayesian methods in stable repeated in vivo studies can result in a more effective use of animals, either by reducing the total number of animals used or by increasing the precision of key treatment differences. This will lead to clearer results and supports the "3Rs initiative" to Refine, Reduce and Replace animals in research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating aquatic toxicity as determined through laboratory tests of great lakes sediments containing complex mixtures of environmental contaminants

USGS Publications Warehouse

1996-01-01

We developed and evaluated a total toxic units modeling approach for predicting mean toxicity as measured in laboratory tests for Great Lakes sediments containing complex mixtures of environmental contaminants (e.g., polychlorinated biphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, pesticides, chlorinated dioxins, and metals). The approach incorporates equilibrium partitioning and organic carbon control of bioavailability for organic contaminants and acid volatile sulfide (AVS) control for metals, and includes toxic equivalency for planar organic chemicals. A toxic unit is defined as the ratio of the estimated pore-water concentration of a contaminant to the chronic toxicity of that contaminant, as estimated by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Ambient Water Quality Criteria (AWQC). The toxic unit models we developed assume complete additivity of contaminant effects, are completely mechanistic in form, and were evaluated without any a posteriori modification of either the models or the data from which the models were developed and against which they were tested. A linear relationship between total toxic units, which included toxicity attributable to both iron and un-ionized ammonia, accounted for about 88% of observed variability in mean toxicity; a quadratic relationship accounted for almost 94%. Exclusion of either bioavailability components (i.e., equilibrium partitioning control of organic contaminants and AVS control of metals) or iron from the model substantially decreased its ability to predict mean toxicity. A model based solely on un-ionized ammonia accounted for about 47% of the variability in mean toxicity. We found the toxic unit approach to be a viable method for assessing and ranking the relative potential toxicity of contaminated sediments.

Multi-fluid modelling of pulsed discharges for flow control applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poggie, J.

2015-02-01

Experimental evidence suggests that short-pulse dielectric barrier discharge actuators are effective for speeds corresponding to take-off and approach of large aircraft, and thus are a fruitful direction for flow control technology development. Large-eddy simulations have reproduced some of the main fluid dynamic effects. The plasma models used in such simulations are semi-empirical, however, and need to be tuned for each flowfield under consideration. In this paper, the discharge physics is examined in more detail with multi-fluid modelling, comparing a five-moment model (continuity, momentum, and energy equations) to a two-moment model (continuity and energy equations). A steady-state, one-dimensional discharge was considered first, and the five-moment model was found to predict significantly lower ionisation rates and number densities than the two-moment model. A two-dimensional, transient discharge problem with an elliptical cathode was studied next. Relative to the two-moment model, the five-moment model predicted a slower response to the activation of the cathode, and lower electron velocities and temperatures as the simulation approached steady-state. The primary reason for the differences in the predictions of the two models can be attributed to the effects of particle inertia, particularly electron inertia in the cathode layer. The computational cost of the five-moment model is only about twice that of the simpler variant, suggesting that it may be feasible to use the more sophisticated model in practical calculations for flow control actuator design.

A nonlinear model predictive control formulation for obstacle avoidance in high-speed autonomous ground vehicles in unstructured environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiechao; Jayakumar, Paramsothy; Stein, Jeffrey L.; Ersal, Tulga

2018-06-01

This paper presents a nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) formulation for obstacle avoidance in high-speed, large-size autono-mous ground vehicles (AGVs) with high centre of gravity (CoG) that operate in unstructured environments, such as military vehicles. The term 'unstructured' in this context denotes that there are no lanes or traffic rules to follow. Existing MPC formulations for passenger vehicles in structured environments do not readily apply to this context. Thus, a new nonlinear MPC formulation is developed to navigate an AGV from its initial position to a target position at high-speed safely. First, a new cost function formulation is used that aims to find the shortest path to the target position, since no reference trajectory exists in unstructured environments. Second, a region partitioning approach is used in conjunction with a multi-phase optimal control formulation to accommodate the complicated forms the obstacle-free region can assume due to the presence of multiple obstacles in the prediction horizon in an unstructured environment. Third, the no-wheel-lift-off condition, which is the major dynamical safety concern for high-speed, high-CoG AGVs, is ensured by limiting the steering angle within a range obtained offline using a 14 degrees-of-freedom vehicle dynamics model. Thus, a safe, high-speed navigation is enabled in an unstructured environment. Simulations of an AGV approaching multiple obstacles are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm.

Intact action segmentation in Parkinson's disease: Hypothesis testing using a novel computational approach.

PubMed

Schiffer, Anne-Marike; Nevado-Holgado, Alejo J; Johnen, Andreas; Schönberger, Anna R; Fink, Gereon R; Schubotz, Ricarda I

2015-11-01

Action observation is known to trigger predictions of the ongoing course of action and thus considered a hallmark example for predictive perception. A related task, which explicitly taps into the ability to predict actions based on their internal representations, is action segmentation; the task requires participants to demarcate where one action step is completed and another one begins. It thus benefits from a temporally precise prediction of the current action. Formation and exploitation of these temporal predictions of external events is now closely associated with a network including the basal ganglia and prefrontal cortex. Because decline of dopaminergic innervation leads to impaired function of the basal ganglia and prefrontal cortex in Parkinson's disease (PD), we hypothesised that PD patients would show increased temporal variability in the action segmentation task, especially under medication withdrawal (hypothesis 1). Another crucial aspect of action segmentation is its reliance on a semantic representation of actions. There is no evidence to suggest that action representations are substantially altered, or cannot be accessed, in non-demented PD patients. We therefore expected action segmentation judgments to follow the same overall patterns in PD patients and healthy controls (hypothesis 2), resulting in comparable segmentation profiles. Both hypotheses were tested with a novel classification approach. We present evidence for both hypotheses in the present study: classifier performance was slightly decreased when it was tested for its ability to predict the identity of movies segmented by PD patients, and a measure of normativity of response behaviour was decreased when patients segmented movies under medication-withdrawal without access to an episodic memory of the sequence. This pattern of results is consistent with hypothesis 1. However, the classifier analysis also revealed that responses given by patients and controls create very similar action-specific patterns, thus delivering evidence in favour hypothesis 2. In terms of methodology, the use of classifiers in the present study allowed us to establish similarity of behaviour across groups (hypothesis 2). The approach opens up a new avenue that standard statistical methods often fail to provide and is discussed in terms of its merits to measure hypothesised similarities across study populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real-time stylistic prediction for whole-body human motions.

PubMed

Matsubara, Takamitsu; Hyon, Sang-Ho; Morimoto, Jun

2012-01-01

The ability to predict human motion is crucial in several contexts such as human tracking by computer vision and the synthesis of human-like computer graphics. Previous work has focused on off-line processes with well-segmented data; however, many applications such as robotics require real-time control with efficient computation. In this paper, we propose a novel approach called real-time stylistic prediction for whole-body human motions to satisfy these requirements. This approach uses a novel generative model to represent a whole-body human motion including rhythmic motion (e.g., walking) and discrete motion (e.g., jumping). The generative model is composed of a low-dimensional state (phase) dynamics and a two-factor observation model, allowing it to capture the diversity of motion styles in humans. A real-time adaptation algorithm was derived to estimate both state variables and style parameter of the model from non-stationary unlabeled sequential observations. Moreover, with a simple modification, the algorithm allows real-time adaptation even from incomplete (partial) observations. Based on the estimated state and style, a future motion sequence can be accurately predicted. In our implementation, it takes less than 15 ms for both adaptation and prediction at each observation. Our real-time stylistic prediction was evaluated for human walking, running, and jumping behaviors. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Current Trends in Modeling Research for Turbulent Aerodynamic Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gatski, Thomas B.; Rumsey, Christopher L.; Manceau, Remi

2007-01-01

The engineering tools of choice for the computation of practical engineering flows have begun to migrate from those based on the traditional Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes approach to methodologies capable, in theory if not in practice, of accurately predicting some instantaneous scales of motion in the flow. The migration has largely been driven by both the success of Reynolds-averaged methods over a wide variety of flows as well as the inherent limitations of the method itself. Practitioners, emboldened by their ability to predict a wide-variety of statistically steady, equilibrium turbulent flows, have now turned their attention to flow control and non-equilibrium flows, that is, separation control. This review gives some current priorities in traditional Reynolds-averaged modeling research as well as some methodologies being applied to a new class of turbulent flow control problems.

Serbo-Croatian Word Order: A Logical Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mihalicek, Vedrana

2012-01-01

This dissertation presents a formal theory of Serbo-Croatian grammar. The theory predicts acceptable form/meaning pairs for a substantial chunk of Serbo-Croatian. In particular, we analyze Serbo-Croatian declarative and interrogative main clauses, embedded clauses, a couple of different types of nominal modification, control and predication, as…

A Case for a Process Approach: The Warwick Experience.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Screen, P.

1988-01-01

Describes the cyclical nature of a problem-solving sequence produced from observing children involved in the process. Discusses the generic qualities of science: (1) observing; (2) inferring; (3) classifying; (4) predicting; (5) controlling variables; and (6) hypothesizing. Explains the processes in use and advantages of a process-led course. (RT)

A Three-Pronged Approach for Overcoming Design Fixation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Steven M.; Linsey, Julie

2011-01-01

Earthquakes, lightning, and history-changing ideas are classic examples of powerful, unpredictable forces of nature. These sorts of phenomena have been difficult to explain and predict, an often frustrating fact as humans try to understand and control the significant influences in our lives. Historically, such phenomena have been attributed to…

Women and Transgression in the Halls of Academe

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davies, Bronwyn

2006-01-01

The controlling strategies of neo-liberalism, designed to constitute academics as economic units supporting the designs of government, are contrasted here with the creative and transgressive elements of a more Deleuzian approach to writing that opens things up, that brings thought to life, that makes the familiar, predictable order tremble. The…

Changing implicit attitudes toward smoking: results from a web-based approach-avoidance practice intervention.

PubMed

Macy, Jonathan T; Chassin, Laurie; Presson, Clark C; Sherman, Jeffrey W

2015-02-01

Implicit attitudes have been shown to predict smoking behaviors. Therefore, an important goal is the development of interventions to change these attitudes. This study assessed the effects of a web-based intervention on implicit attitudes toward smoking and receptivity to smoking-related information. Smokers (N = 284) were recruited to a two-session web-based study. In the first session, baseline data were collected. Session two contained the intervention, which consisted of assignment to the experimental or control version of an approach-avoidance task and assignment to an anti-smoking or control public service announcement (PSA), and post-intervention measures. Among smokers with less education and with plans to quit, implicit attitudes were more negative for those who completed the approach-avoidance task. Smokers with more education who viewed the anti-smoking PSA and completed the approach-avoidance task spent more time reading smoking-related information. An approach-avoidance task is a potentially feasible strategy for changing implicit attitudes toward smoking and increasing receptivity to smoking-related information.

Changing Implicit Attitudes toward Smoking: Results from a Web-Based Approach-Avoidance Practice Intervention

PubMed Central

Macy, Jonathan T.; Chassin, Laurie; Presson, Clark C.; Sherman, Jeffrey W.

2014-01-01

Implicit attitudes have been shown to predict smoking behaviors. Therefore, an important goal is the development of interventions to change these attitudes. This study assessed the effects of a web-based intervention on implicit attitudes toward smoking and receptivity to smoking-related information. Smokers (N=284) were recruited to a two-session web-based study. In the first session, baseline data were collected. Session two contained the intervention, which consisted of assignment to the experimental or control version of an approach-avoidance task and assignment to an anti-smoking or control public service announcement (PSA), and post-intervention measures. Among smokers with less education and with plans to quit, implicit attitudes were more negative for those who completed the approach-avoidance task. Smokers with more education who viewed the anti-smoking PSA and completed the approach-avoidance task spent more time reading smoking-related information. An approach-avoidance task is a potentially feasible strategy for changing implicit attitudes toward smoking and increasing receptivity to smoking-related information. PMID:25059750

A Model-based Approach to Controlling the ST-5 Constellation Lights-Out Using the GMSEC Message Bus and Simulink

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Witt, Kenneth J.; Stanley, Jason; Shendock, Robert; Mandl, Daniel

2005-01-01

Space Technology 5 (ST-5) is a three-satellite constellation, technology validation mission under the New Millennium Program at NASA to be launched in March 2006. One of the key technologies to be validated is a lights-out, model-based operations approach to be used for one week to control the ST-5 constellation with no manual intervention. The ground architecture features the GSFC Mission Services Evolution Center (GMSEC) middleware, which allows easy plugging in of software components and a standardized messaging protocol over a software bus. A predictive modeling tool built on MatLab's Simulink software package makes use of the GMSEC standard messaging protocol to interface to the Advanced Mission Planning System (AMPS) Scenario Scheduler which controls all activities, resource allocation and real-time re-profiling of constellation resources when non-nominal events occur. The key features of this system, which we refer to as the ST-5 Simulink system, are as follows: Original daily plan is checked to make sure that predicted resources needed are available by comparing the plan against the model. As the plan is run in real-time, the system re-profiles future activities in real-time if planned activities do not occur in the predicted timeframe or fashion. Alert messages are sent out on the GMSEC bus by the system if future predicted problems are detected. This will allow the Scenario Scheduler to correct the situation before the problem happens. The predictive model is evolved automatically over time via telemetry updates thus reducing the cost of implementing and maintaining the models by an order of magnitude from previous efforts at GSFC such as the model-based system built for MAP in the mid-1990's. This paper will describe the key features, lessons learned and implications for future missions once this system is successfully validated on-orbit in 2006.

Predicting risky choices from brain activity patterns

PubMed Central

Helfinstein, Sarah M.; Schonberg, Tom; Congdon, Eliza; Karlsgodt, Katherine H.; Mumford, Jeanette A.; Sabb, Fred W.; Cannon, Tyrone D.; London, Edythe D.; Bilder, Robert M.; Poldrack, Russell A.

2014-01-01

Previous research has implicated a large network of brain regions in the processing of risk during decision making. However, it has not yet been determined if activity in these regions is predictive of choices on future risky decisions. Here, we examined functional MRI data from a large sample of healthy subjects performing a naturalistic risk-taking task and used a classification analysis approach to predict whether individuals would choose risky or safe options on upcoming trials. We were able to predict choice category successfully in 71.8% of cases. Searchlight analysis revealed a network of brain regions where activity patterns were reliably predictive of subsequent risk-taking behavior, including a number of regions known to play a role in control processes. Searchlights with significant predictive accuracy were primarily located in regions more active when preparing to avoid a risk than when preparing to engage in one, suggesting that risk taking may be due, in part, to a failure of the control systems necessary to initiate a safe choice. Additional analyses revealed that subject choice can be successfully predicted with minimal decrements in accuracy using highly condensed data, suggesting that information relevant for risky choice behavior is encoded in coarse global patterns of activation as well as within highly local activation within searchlights. PMID:24550270

Comparison of individual-based modeling and population approaches for prediction of foodborne pathogens growth.

PubMed

Augustin, Jean-Christophe; Ferrier, Rachel; Hezard, Bernard; Lintz, Adrienne; Stahl, Valérie

2015-02-01

Individual-based modeling (IBM) approach combined with the microenvironment modeling of vacuum-packed cold-smoked salmon was more effective to describe the variability of the growth of a few Listeria monocytogenes cells contaminating irradiated salmon slices than the traditional population models. The IBM approach was particularly relevant to predict the absence of growth in 25% (5 among 20) of artificially contaminated cold-smoked salmon samples stored at 8 °C. These results confirmed similar observations obtained with smear soft cheese (Ferrier et al., 2013). These two different food models were used to compare the IBM/microscale and population/macroscale modeling approaches in more global exposure and risk assessment frameworks taking into account the variability and/or the uncertainty of the factors influencing the growth of L. monocytogenes. We observed that the traditional population models significantly overestimate exposure and risk estimates in comparison to IBM approach when contamination of foods occurs with a low number of cells (<100 per serving). Moreover, the exposure estimates obtained with the population model were characterized by a great uncertainty. The overestimation was mainly linked to the ability of IBM to predict no growth situations rather than the consideration of microscale environment. On the other hand, when the aim of quantitative risk assessment studies is only to assess the relative impact of changes in control measures affecting the growth of foodborne bacteria, the two modeling approach gave similar results and the simplest population approach was suitable. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic optimal control of homeostasis: an integrative system approach for modeling of the central nitrogen metabolism in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

PubMed

van Riel, N A; Giuseppin, M L; Verrips, C T

2000-01-01

The theory of dynamic optimal metabolic control (DOMC), as developed by Giuseppin and Van Riel (Metab. Eng., 2000), is applied to model the central nitrogen metabolism (CNM) in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. The CNM represents a typical system encountered in advanced metabolic engineering. The CNM is the source of the cellular amino acids and proteins, including flavors and potentially valuable biomolecules; therefore, it is also of industrial interest. In the DOMC approach the cell is regarded as an optimally controlled system. Given the metabolic genotype, the cell faces a control problem to maintain an optimal flux distribution in a changing environment. The regulation is based on strategies and balances feedback control of homeostasis and feedforward regulation for adaptation. The DOMC approach is an integrative, holistic approach, not based on mechanistic descriptions and (therefore) not biased by the variation present in biochemical and molecular biological data. It is an effective tool to structure the rapidly increasing amount of data on the function of genes and pathways. The DOMC model is used successfully to predict the responses of pulses of ammonia and glutamine to nitrogen-limited continuous cultures of a wild-type strain and a glutamine synthetase-negative mutant. The simulation results are validated with experimental data.

A data-driven approach to identify controls on global fire activity from satellite and climate observations (SOFIA V1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Lasslop, Gitta; Teubner, Irene; Chuvieco, Emilio; Thonicke, Kirsten

2017-12-01

Vegetation fires affect human infrastructures, ecosystems, global vegetation distribution, and atmospheric composition. However, the climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors that control global fire activity in vegetation are only poorly understood, and in various complexities and formulations are represented in global process-oriented vegetation-fire models. Data-driven model approaches such as machine learning algorithms have successfully been used to identify and better understand controlling factors for fire activity. However, such machine learning models cannot be easily adapted or even implemented within process-oriented global vegetation-fire models. To overcome this gap between machine learning-based approaches and process-oriented global fire models, we introduce a new flexible data-driven fire modelling approach here (Satellite Observations to predict FIre Activity, SOFIA approach version 1). SOFIA models can use several predictor variables and functional relationships to estimate burned area that can be easily adapted with more complex process-oriented vegetation-fire models. We created an ensemble of SOFIA models to test the importance of several predictor variables. SOFIA models result in the highest performance in predicting burned area if they account for a direct restriction of fire activity under wet conditions and if they include a land cover-dependent restriction or allowance of fire activity by vegetation density and biomass. The use of vegetation optical depth data from microwave satellite observations, a proxy for vegetation biomass and water content, reaches higher model performance than commonly used vegetation variables from optical sensors. We further analyse spatial patterns of the sensitivity between anthropogenic, climate, and vegetation predictor variables and burned area. We finally discuss how multiple observational datasets on climate, hydrological, vegetation, and socioeconomic variables together with data-driven modelling and model-data integration approaches can guide the future development of global process-oriented vegetation-fire models.

Predicting performance and safety based on driver fatigue.

PubMed

Mollicone, Daniel; Kan, Kevin; Mott, Chris; Bartels, Rachel; Bruneau, Steve; van Wollen, Matthew; Sparrow, Amy R; Van Dongen, Hans P A

2018-04-02

Fatigue causes decrements in vigilant attention and reaction time and is a major safety hazard in the trucking industry. There is a need to quantify the relationship between driver fatigue and safety in terms of operationally relevant measures. Hard-braking events are a suitable measure for this purpose as they are relatively easily observed and are correlated with collisions and near-crashes. We developed an analytic approach that predicts driver fatigue based on a biomathematical model and then estimates hard-braking events as a function of predicted fatigue, controlling for time of day to account for systematic variations in exposure (traffic density). The analysis used de-identified data from a previously published, naturalistic field study of 106 U.S. commercial motor vehicle (CMV) drivers. Data analyzed included drivers' official duty logs, sleep patterns measured around the clock using wrist actigraphy, and continuous recording of vehicle data to capture hard-braking events. The curve relating predicted fatigue to hard-braking events showed that the frequency of hard-braking events increased as predicted fatigue levels worsened. For each increment on the fatigue scale, the frequency of hard-braking events increased by 7.8%. The results provide proof of concept for a novel approach that predicts fatigue based on drivers' sleep patterns and estimates driving performance in terms of an operational metric related to safety. The approach can be translated to practice by CMV operators to achieve a fatigue risk profile specific to their own settings, in order to support data-driven decisions about fatigue countermeasures that cost-effectively deliver quantifiable operational benefits. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards energy efficient operation of Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning systems via advanced supervisory control design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oswiecinska, A.; Hibbs, J.; Zajic, I.; Burnham, K. J.

2015-11-01

This paper presents conceptual control solution for reliable and energy efficient operation of heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems used in large volume building applications, e.g. warehouse facilities or exhibition centres. Advanced two-level scalable control solution, designed to extend capabilities of the existing low-level control strategies via remote internet connection, is presented. The high-level, supervisory controller is based on Model Predictive Control (MPC) architecture, which is the state-of-the-art for indoor climate control systems. The innovative approach benefits from using passive heating and cooling control strategies for reducing the HVAC system operational costs, while ensuring that required environmental conditions are met.

CRN5EXP: Expert system for statistical quality control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hentea, Mariana

1991-01-01

The purpose of the Expert System CRN5EXP is to assist in checking the quality of the coils at two very important mills: Hot Rolling and Cold Rolling in a steel plant. The system interprets the statistical quality control charts, diagnoses and predicts the quality of the steel. Measurements of process control variables are recorded in a database and sample statistics such as the mean and the range are computed and plotted on a control chart. The chart is analyzed through patterns using the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) and a forward chaining technique to reach a conclusion about the causes of defects and to take management measures for the improvement of the quality control techniques. The Expert System combines the certainty factors associated with the process control variables to predict the quality of the steel. The paper presents the approach to extract data from the database, the reason to combine certainty factors, the architecture and the use of the Expert System. However, the interpretation of control charts patterns requires the human expert's knowledge and lends to Expert Systems rules.

An Adaptive Intelligent Integrated Lighting Control Approach for High-Performance Office Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karizi, Nasim

An acute and crucial societal problem is the energy consumed in existing commercial buildings. There are 1.5 million commercial buildings in the U.S. with only about 3% being built each year. Hence, existing buildings need to be properly operated and maintained for several decades. Application of integrated centralized control systems in buildings could lead to more than 50% energy savings. This research work demonstrates an innovative adaptive integrated lighting control approach which could achieve significant energy savings and increase indoor comfort in high performance office buildings. In the first phase of the study, a predictive algorithm was developed and validated through experiments in an actual test room. The objective was to regulate daylight on a specified work plane by controlling the blind slat angles. Furthermore, a sensor-based integrated adaptive lighting controller was designed in Simulink which included an innovative sensor optimization approach based on genetic algorithm to minimize the number of sensors and efficiently place them in the office. The controller was designed based on simple integral controllers. The objective of developed control algorithm was to improve the illuminance situation in the office through controlling the daylight and electrical lighting. To evaluate the performance of the system, the controller was applied on experimental office model in Lee et al.'s research study in 1998. The result of the developed control approach indicate a significantly improvement in lighting situation and 1-23% and 50-78% monthly electrical energy savings in the office model, compared to two static strategies when the blinds were left open and closed during the whole year respectively.

Network inference reveals novel connections in pathways regulating growth and defense in the yeast salt response.

PubMed

MacGilvray, Matthew E; Shishkova, Evgenia; Chasman, Deborah; Place, Michael; Gitter, Anthony; Coon, Joshua J; Gasch, Audrey P

2018-05-01

Cells respond to stressful conditions by coordinating a complex, multi-faceted response that spans many levels of physiology. Much of the response is coordinated by changes in protein phosphorylation. Although the regulators of transcriptome changes during stress are well characterized in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, the upstream regulatory network controlling protein phosphorylation is less well dissected. Here, we developed a computational approach to infer the signaling network that regulates phosphorylation changes in response to salt stress. We developed an approach to link predicted regulators to groups of likely co-regulated phospho-peptides responding to stress, thereby creating new edges in a background protein interaction network. We then use integer linear programming (ILP) to integrate wild type and mutant phospho-proteomic data and predict the network controlling stress-activated phospho-proteomic changes. The network we inferred predicted new regulatory connections between stress-activated and growth-regulating pathways and suggested mechanisms coordinating metabolism, cell-cycle progression, and growth during stress. We confirmed several network predictions with co-immunoprecipitations coupled with mass-spectrometry protein identification and mutant phospho-proteomic analysis. Results show that the cAMP-phosphodiesterase Pde2 physically interacts with many stress-regulated transcription factors targeted by PKA, and that reduced phosphorylation of those factors during stress requires the Rck2 kinase that we show physically interacts with Pde2. Together, our work shows how a high-quality computational network model can facilitate discovery of new pathway interactions during osmotic stress.

A boundary element approach to optimization of active noise control sources on three-dimensional structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cunefare, K. A.; Koopmann, G. H.

1991-01-01

This paper presents the theoretical development of an approach to active noise control (ANC) applicable to three-dimensional radiators. The active noise control technique, termed ANC Optimization Analysis, is based on minimizing the total radiated power by adding secondary acoustic sources on the primary noise source. ANC Optimization Analysis determines the optimum magnitude and phase at which to drive the secondary control sources in order to achieve the best possible reduction in the total radiated power from the noise source/control source combination. For example, ANC Optimization Analysis predicts a 20 dB reduction in the total power radiated from a sphere of radius at a dimensionless wavenumber ka of 0.125, for a single control source representing 2.5 percent of the total area of the sphere. ANC Optimization Analysis is based on a boundary element formulation of the Helmholtz Integral Equation, and thus, the optimization analysis applies to a single frequency, while multiple frequencies can be treated through repeated analyses.

Predicting hydrofacies and hydraulic conductivity from direct-push data using a data-driven relevance vector machine approach: Motivations, algorithms, and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paradis, Daniel; Lefebvre, René; Gloaguen, Erwan; Rivera, Alfonso

2015-01-01

The spatial heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity (K) exerts a major control on groundwater flow and solute transport. The heterogeneous spatial distribution of K can be imaged using indirect geophysical data as long as reliable relations exist to link geophysical data to K. This paper presents a nonparametric learning machine approach to predict aquifer K from cone penetrometer tests (CPT) coupled with a soil moisture and resistivity probe (SMR) using relevance vector machines (RVMs). The learning machine approach is demonstrated with an application to a heterogeneous unconsolidated littoral aquifer in a 12 km2 subwatershed, where relations between K and multiparameters CPT/SMR soundings appear complex. Our approach involved fuzzy clustering to define hydrofacies (HF) on the basis of CPT/SMR and K data prior to the training of RVMs for HFs recognition and K prediction on the basis of CPT/SMR data alone. The learning machine was built from a colocated training data set representative of the study area that includes K data from slug tests and CPT/SMR data up-scaled at a common vertical resolution of 15 cm with K data. After training, the predictive capabilities of the learning machine were assessed through cross validation with data withheld from the training data set and with K data from flowmeter tests not used during the training process. Results show that HF and K predictions from the learning machine are consistent with hydraulic tests. The combined use of CPT/SMR data and RVM-based learning machine proved to be powerful and efficient for the characterization of high-resolution K heterogeneity for unconsolidated aquifers.

The habenula governs the attribution of incentive salience to reward predictive cues

PubMed Central

Danna, Carey L.; Shepard, Paul D.; Elmer, Greg I.

2013-01-01

The attribution of incentive salience to reward associated cues is critical for motivation and the pursuit of rewards. Disruptions in the integrity of the neural systems controlling these processes can lead to avolition and anhedonia, symptoms that cross the diagnostic boundaries of many neuropsychiatric illnesses. Here, we consider whether the habenula (Hb), a region recently demonstrated to encode negatively valenced events, also modulates the attribution of incentive salience to a neutral cue predicting a food reward. The Pavlovian autoshaping paradigm was used in the rat as an investigative tool to dissociate Pavlovian learning processes imparting strictly predictive value from learning that attributes incentive motivational value. Electrolytic lesions of the fasciculus retroflexus (fr), the sole pathway through which descending Hb efferents are conveyed, significantly increased incentive salience as measured by conditioned approaches to a cue light predictive of reward. Conversely, generation of a fictive Hb signal via fr stimulation during CS+ presentation significantly decreased the incentive salience of the predictive cue. Neither manipulation altered the reward predictive value of the cue as measured by conditioned approach to the food. Our results provide new evidence supporting a significant role for the Hb in governing the attribution of incentive motivational salience to reward predictive cues and further imply that pathological changes in Hb activity could contribute to the aberrant pursuit of debilitating goals or avolition and depression-like symptoms. PMID:24368898

Network measures predict neuropsychological outcome after brain injury

PubMed Central

Warren, David E.; Power, Jonathan D.; Bruss, Joel; Denburg, Natalie L.; Waldron, Eric J.; Sun, Haoxin; Petersen, Steven E.; Tranel, Daniel

2014-01-01

Hubs are network components that hold positions of high importance for network function. Previous research has identified hubs in human brain networks derived from neuroimaging data; however, there is little consensus on the localization of such hubs. Moreover, direct evidence regarding the role of various proposed hubs in network function (e.g., cognition) is scarce. Regions of the default mode network (DMN) have been frequently identified as “cortical hubs” of brain networks. On theoretical grounds, we have argued against some of the methods used to identify these hubs and have advocated alternative approaches that identify different regions of cortex as hubs. Our framework predicts that our proposed hub locations may play influential roles in multiple aspects of cognition, and, in contrast, that hubs identified via other methods (including salient regions in the DMN) might not exert such broad influence. Here we used a neuropsychological approach to directly test these predictions by studying long-term cognitive and behavioral outcomes in 30 patients, 19 with focal lesions to six “target” hubs identified by our approaches (high system density and participation coefficient) and 11 with focal lesions to two “control” hubs (high degree centrality). In support of our predictions, we found that damage to target locations produced severe and widespread cognitive deficits, whereas damage to control locations produced more circumscribed deficits. These findings support our interpretation of how neuroimaging-derived network measures relate to cognition and augment classic neuroanatomically based predictions about cognitive and behavioral outcomes after focal brain injury. PMID:25225403

Advancement in Watershed Modelling Using Dynamic Lateral and Longitudinal Sediment (Dis)connectivity Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahoney, D. T.; al Aamery, N. M. H.; Fox, J.

2017-12-01

The authors find that sediment (dis)connectivity has seldom taken precedence within watershed models, and the present study advances this modeling framework and applies the modeling within a bedrock-controlled system. Sediment (dis)connectivity, defined as the detachment and transport of sediment from source to sink between geomorphic zones, is a major control on sediment transport. Given the availability of high resolution geospatial data, coupling sediment connectivity concepts within sediment prediction models offers an approach to simulate sediment sources and pathways within a watershed's sediment cascade. Bedrock controlled catchments are potentially unique due to the presence of rock outcrops causing longitudinal impedance to sediment transport pathways in turn impacting the longitudinal distribution of the energy gradient responsible for conveying sediment. Therefore, the authors were motivated by the need to formulate a sediment transport model that couples sediment (dis)connectivity knowledge to predict sediment flux for bedrock controlled catchments. A watershed-scale sediment transport model was formulated that incorporates sediment (dis)connectivity knowledge collected via field reconnaissance and predicts sediment flux through coupling with the Partheniades equation and sediment continuity model. Sediment (dis)connectivity was formulated by coupling probabilistic upland lateral connectivity prediction with instream longitudinal connectivity assessments via discretization of fluid and sediment pathways. Flux predictions from the upland lateral connectivity model served as an input to the instream longitudinal connectivity model. Disconnectivity in the instream model was simulated via the discretization of stream reaches due to barriers such as bedrock outcroppings and man-made check dams. The model was tested for a bedrock controlled catchment in Kentucky, USA for which extensive historic water and sediment flux data was available. Predicted sediment flux was validated via sediment flux measurements collected by the authors. Watershed configuration and the distribution of lateral and longitudinal impedances to sediment transport were found to have significant influence on sediment connectivity and thus sediment flux.

The effects of practice on movement distance and final position reproduction: implications for the equilibrium-point control of movements.

PubMed

Jaric, S; Corcos, D M; Gottlieb, G L; Ilic, D B; Latash, M L

1994-01-01

Predictions of two views on single-joint motor control, namely programming of muscle force patterns and equilibrium-point control, were compared with the results of experiments with reproduction of movement distance and final location during fast unidirectional elbow flexions. Two groups of subjects were tested. The first group practiced movements over a fixed distance (36 degrees), starting from seven different initial positions (distance group, DG). The second group practiced movements from the same seven initial positions to a fixed final location (location group, LG). Later, all the subjects were tested at the practiced task with their eyes closed, and then, unexpectedly for the subjects, they were tested at the other, unpracticed task. In both groups, the task to reproduce final position had lower indices of final position variability than the task to reproduce movement distance. Analysis of the linear regression lines between initial position and final position (or movement distance) also demonstrated a better (more accurate) performance during final position reproduction than during distance reproduction. The data are in a good correspondence with the predictions of the equilibrium-point hypothesis, but not with the predictions of the force-pattern control approach.

Why Does Working Memory Capacity Predict Variation in Reading Comprehension? On the Influence of Mind Wandering and Executive Attention

PubMed Central

McVay, Jennifer C.; Kane, Michael J.

2012-01-01

Some people are better readers than others, and this variation in comprehension ability is predicted by measures of working memory capacity (WMC). The primary goal of this study was to investigate the mediating role of mind wandering experiences in the association between WMC and normal individual differences in reading comprehension, as predicted by the executive-attention theory of WMC (e.g., Engle & Kane, 2004). We used a latent-variable, structural-equation-model approach, testing skilled adult readers on three WMC span tasks, seven varied reading comprehension tasks, and three attention-control tasks. Mind wandering was assessed using experimenter-scheduled thought probes during four different tasks (two reading, two attention-control tasks). The results support the executive-attention theory of WMC. Mind wandering across the four tasks loaded onto a single latent factor, reflecting a stable individual difference. Most importantly, mind wandering was a significant mediator in the relationship between WMC and reading comprehension, suggesting that the WMC-comprehension correlation is driven, in part, by attention control over intruding thoughts. We discuss implications for theories of WMC, attention control, and reading comprehension. PMID:21875246

Artificial neural network EMG classifier for functional hand grasp movements prediction

PubMed Central

Ferrante, Simona; Ferrigno, Giancarlo; Baldassini, Davide; Molteni, Franco; Guanziroli, Eleonora; Cotti Cottini, Michele; Seneci, Carlo; Pedrocchi, Alessandra

2016-01-01

Objective To design and implement an electromyography (EMG)-based controller for a hand robotic assistive device, which is able to classify the user's motion intention before the effective kinematic movement execution. Methods Multiple degrees-of-freedom hand grasp movements (i.e. pinching, grasp an object, grasping) were predicted by means of surface EMG signals, recorded from 10 bipolar EMG electrodes arranged in a circular configuration around the forearm 2–3 cm from the elbow. Two cascaded artificial neural networks were then exploited to detect the patient's motion intention from the EMG signal window starting from the electrical activity onset to movement onset (i.e. electromechanical delay). Results The proposed approach was tested on eight healthy control subjects (4 females; age range 25–26 years) and it demonstrated a mean ± SD testing performance of 76% ± 14% for correctly predicting healthy users' motion intention. Two post-stroke patients tested the controller and obtained 79% and 100% of correctly classified movements under testing conditions. Conclusion A task-selection controller was developed to estimate the intended movement from the EMG measured during the electromechanical delay. PMID:27677300

Spatial Map of Synthesized Criteria for the Redundancy Resolution of Human Arm Movements.

PubMed

Li, Zhi; Milutinovic, Dejan; Rosen, Jacob

2015-11-01

The kinematic redundancy of the human arm enables the elbow position to rotate about the axis going through the shoulder and wrist, which results in infinite possible arm postures when the arm reaches to a target in a 3-D workspace. To infer the control strategy the human motor system uses to resolve redundancy in reaching movements, this paper compares five redundancy resolution criteria and evaluates their arm posture prediction performance using data on healthy human motion. Two synthesized criteria are developed to provide better real-time arm posture prediction than the five individual criteria. Of these two, the criterion synthesized using an exponential method predicts the arm posture more accurately than that using a least squares approach, and therefore is preferable for inferring the contributions of the individual criteria to motor control during reaching movements. As a methodology contribution, this paper proposes a framework to compare and evaluate redundancy resolution criteria for arm motion control. A cluster analysis which associates criterion contributions with regions of the workspace provides a guideline for designing a real-time motion control system applicable to upper-limb exoskeletons for stroke rehabilitation.

Anterior approach versus posterior approach for Pipkin I and II femoral head fractures: A systemic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Chen-guang; Li, Yao-min; Zhang, Hua-feng; Li, Hui; Li, Zhi-jun

2016-03-01

We performed a meta-analysis, pooling the results from controlled clinical trials to compare the efficiency of anterior and posterior surgical approaches to Pipkin I and II fractures of the femoral head. Potential academic articles were identified from the Cochrane Library, Medline (1966-2015.5), PubMed (1966-2015.5), Embase (1980-2015.5) and ScienceDirect (1966-2015.5) databases. Gray studies were identified from the references of the included literature. Pooling of the data was performed and analyzed by RevMan software, version 5.1. Five case-control trials (CCTs) met the inclusion criteria. There were significant differences in the incidence of heterotopic ossification (HO) between the approaches, but no significant differences were found between the two groups regarding functional outcomes of the hip, general postoperative complications, osteonecrosis of the femoral head or post-traumatic arthritis. The present meta-analysis indicated that the posterior approach decreased the risk of heterotopic ossification compared with the anterior approach for the treatment of Pipkin I and II femoral head fractures. No other complications were related to anterior and posterior approaches. Future high-quality randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) are needed to determine the optimal surgical approach and to predict other postoperative complications. III. Copyright © 2016 IJS Publishing Group Limited. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fuzzy Behavior-Based Navigation for Planetary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tunstel, Edward; Danny, Harrison; Lippincott, Tanya; Jamshidi, Mo

1997-01-01

Adaptive behavioral capabilities are necessary for robust rover navigation in unstructured and partially-mapped environments. A control approach is described which exploits the approximate reasoning capability of fuzzy logic to produce adaptive motion behavior. In particular, a behavior-based architecture for hierarchical fuzzy control of microrovers is presented. Its structure is described, as well as mechanisms of control decision-making which give rise to adaptive behavior. Control decisions for local navigation result from a consensus of recommendations offered only by behaviors that are applicable to current situations. Simulation predicts the navigation performance on a microrover in simplified Mars-analog terrain.

Demand response-enabled model predictive HVAC load control in buildings using real-time electricity pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avci, Mesut

A practical cost and energy efficient model predictive control (MPC) strategy is proposed for HVAC load control under dynamic real-time electricity pricing. The MPC strategy is built based on a proposed model that jointly minimizes the total energy consumption and hence, cost of electricity for the user, and the deviation of the inside temperature from the consumer's preference. An algorithm that assigns temperature set-points (reference temperatures) to price ranges based on the consumer's discomfort tolerance index is developed. A practical parameter prediction model is also designed for mapping between the HVAC load and the inside temperature. The prediction model and the produced temperature set-points are integrated as inputs into the MPC controller, which is then used to generate signal actions for the AC unit. To investigate and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, a simulation based experimental analysis is presented using real-life pricing data. An actual prototype for the proposed HVAC load control strategy is then built and a series of prototype experiments are conducted similar to the simulation studies. The experiments reveal that the MPC strategy can lead to significant reductions in overall energy consumption and cost savings for the consumer. Results suggest that by providing an efficient response strategy for the consumers, the proposed MPC strategy can enable the utility providers to adopt efficient demand management policies using real-time pricing. Finally, a cost-benefit analysis is performed to display the economic feasibility of implementing such a controller as part of a building energy management system, and the payback period is identified considering cost of prototype build and cost savings to help the adoption of this controller in the building HVAC control industry.

Development of a combined feed forward-feedback system for an electron Linac

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, E.; Biedron, S. G.; LeBlanc, G.; Morgan, M. J.; Wu, J.

2009-10-01

This paper describes the results of an advanced control algorithm for the stabilization of electron beam energy in a Linac. The approach combines a conventional Proportional-Integral (PI) controller with a neural network (NNET) feed forward algorithm; it utilizes the robustness of PI control and the ability of a feed forward system in order to exert control over a wider range of frequencies. The NNET is trained to recognize jitter occurring in the phase and voltage of one of the klystrons, based on a record of these parameters, and predicts future energy deviations. A systematic approach is developed to determine the optimal NNET parameters that are then applied to the Australian Synchrotron Linac. The system's capability to fully cancel multi-frequency jitter is demonstrated. The NNET system is then augmented with the PI algorithm, and further jitter attenuation is achieved when the NNET is not operating optimally.

A practical approach for predicting retention time shifts due to pressure and temperature gradients in ultra-high-pressure liquid chromatography.

PubMed

Åsberg, Dennis; Chutkowski, Marcin; Leśko, Marek; Samuelsson, Jörgen; Kaczmarski, Krzysztof; Fornstedt, Torgny

2017-01-06

Large pressure gradients are generated in ultra-high-pressure liquid chromatography (UHPLC) using sub-2μm particles causing significant temperature gradients over the column due to viscous heating. These pressure and temperature gradients affect retention and ultimately result in important selectivity shifts. In this study, we developed an approach for predicting the retention time shifts due to these gradients. The approach is presented as a step-by-step procedure and it is based on empirical linear relationships describing how retention varies as a function of temperature and pressure and how the average column temperature increases with the flow rate. It requires only four experiments on standard equipment, is based on straightforward calculations, and is therefore easy to use in method development. The approach was rigorously validated against experimental data obtained with a quality control method for the active pharmaceutical ingredient omeprazole. The accuracy of retention time predictions was very good with relative errors always less than 1% and in many cases around 0.5% (n=32). Selectivity shifts observed between omeprazole and the related impurities when changing the flow rate could also be accurately predicted resulting in good estimates of the resolution between critical peak pairs. The approximations which the presented approach are based on were all justified. The retention factor as a function of pressure and temperature was studied in an experimental design while the temperature distribution in the column was obtained by solving the fundamental heat and mass balance equations for the different experimental conditions. We strongly believe that this approach is sufficiently accurate and experimentally feasible for this separation to be a valuable tool when developing a UHPLC method. After further validation with other separation systems, it could become a useful approach in UHPLC method development, especially in the pharmaceutical industry where demands are high for robustness and regulatory oversight. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Real-time In-Flight Strain and Deflection Monitoring with Fiber Optic Sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richards, Lance; Parker, Allen R.; Ko, William L.; Piazza, Anthony

2008-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews Dryden's efforts to develop in-flight monitoring based on Fiber Optics. One of the motivating factors for this development was the breakup of the Helios aircraft. On Ikhana the use of fiber optics for wing shape sensing is being developed. They are being used to flight validate fiber optic sensor measurements and real-time wing shape sensing predictions on NASA's Ikhana vehicle; validate fiber optic mathematical models and design tools; Assess technical viability and, if applicable, develop methodology and approach to incorporate wing shape measurements within the vehicle flight control system, and develop and flight validate advanced approaches to perform active wing shape control.

Do emotional support and classroom organization earlier in the year set the stage for higher quality instruction?

PubMed

Curby, Timothy W; Rimm-Kaufman, Sara E; Abry, Tashia

2013-10-01

Many teachers believe that providing greater emotional and organizational supports in the beginning of the year strengthens their ability to teach effectively as the year progresses. Some interventions, such as the Responsive Classroom (RC) approach, explicitly embed this sequence into professional development efforts. We tested the hypothesis that earlier emotional and organizational supports set the stage for improved instruction later in the year in a sample of third- and fourth-grade teachers enrolled in a randomized controlled trial of the RC approach. Further, we examined the extent to which the model generalized for teachers using varying levels of RC practices as well as whether or not teachers were in the intervention or control groups. Teachers' emotional, organizational, and instructional interactions were observed using the Classroom Assessment Scoring System (Pianta, La Paro, & Hamre, 2008) on five occasions throughout the year. Results indicated a reciprocal relation between emotional and instructional supports. Specifically, higher levels of emotional support earlier in the year predicted higher instructional support later in the year. Also, higher levels of instructional support earlier in the year predicted higher emotional support later in the year. Classroom organization was not found to have longitudinal associations with the other domains across a year. This pattern was robust when controlling for the use of RC practices as well as across intervention and control groups. Further, teachers' use of RC practices predicted higher emotional support and classroom organization throughout the year, suggesting the malleability of this teacher characteristic. Discussion highlights the connection between teachers' emotional and instructional supports and how the use of RC practices improves teachers' emotionally supportive interactions with students. Copyright © 2013 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DemQSAR: predicting human volume of distribution and clearance of drugs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir-Kavuk, Ozgur; Bentzien, Jörg; Muegge, Ingo; Knapp, Ernst-Walter

2011-12-01

In silico methods characterizing molecular compounds with respect to pharmacologically relevant properties can accelerate the identification of new drugs and reduce their development costs. Quantitative structure-activity/-property relationship (QSAR/QSPR) correlate structure and physico-chemical properties of molecular compounds with a specific functional activity/property under study. Typically a large number of molecular features are generated for the compounds. In many cases the number of generated features exceeds the number of molecular compounds with known property values that are available for learning. Machine learning methods tend to overfit the training data in such situations, i.e. the method adjusts to very specific features of the training data, which are not characteristic for the considered property. This problem can be alleviated by diminishing the influence of unimportant, redundant or even misleading features. A better strategy is to eliminate such features completely. Ideally, a molecular property can be described by a small number of features that are chemically interpretable. The purpose of the present contribution is to provide a predictive modeling approach, which combines feature generation, feature selection, model building and control of overtraining into a single application called DemQSAR. DemQSAR is used to predict human volume of distribution (VDss) and human clearance (CL). To control overtraining, quadratic and linear regularization terms were employed. A recursive feature selection approach is used to reduce the number of descriptors. The prediction performance is as good as the best predictions reported in the recent literature. The example presented here demonstrates that DemQSAR can generate a model that uses very few features while maintaining high predictive power. A standalone DemQSAR Java application for model building of any user defined property as well as a web interface for the prediction of human VDss and CL is available on the webpage of DemPRED: http://agknapp.chemie.fu-berlin.de/dempred/.

DemQSAR: predicting human volume of distribution and clearance of drugs.

PubMed

Demir-Kavuk, Ozgur; Bentzien, Jörg; Muegge, Ingo; Knapp, Ernst-Walter

2011-12-01

In silico methods characterizing molecular compounds with respect to pharmacologically relevant properties can accelerate the identification of new drugs and reduce their development costs. Quantitative structure-activity/-property relationship (QSAR/QSPR) correlate structure and physico-chemical properties of molecular compounds with a specific functional activity/property under study. Typically a large number of molecular features are generated for the compounds. In many cases the number of generated features exceeds the number of molecular compounds with known property values that are available for learning. Machine learning methods tend to overfit the training data in such situations, i.e. the method adjusts to very specific features of the training data, which are not characteristic for the considered property. This problem can be alleviated by diminishing the influence of unimportant, redundant or even misleading features. A better strategy is to eliminate such features completely. Ideally, a molecular property can be described by a small number of features that are chemically interpretable. The purpose of the present contribution is to provide a predictive modeling approach, which combines feature generation, feature selection, model building and control of overtraining into a single application called DemQSAR. DemQSAR is used to predict human volume of distribution (VD(ss)) and human clearance (CL). To control overtraining, quadratic and linear regularization terms were employed. A recursive feature selection approach is used to reduce the number of descriptors. The prediction performance is as good as the best predictions reported in the recent literature. The example presented here demonstrates that DemQSAR can generate a model that uses very few features while maintaining high predictive power. A standalone DemQSAR Java application for model building of any user defined property as well as a web interface for the prediction of human VD(ss) and CL is available on the webpage of DemPRED: http://agknapp.chemie.fu-berlin.de/dempred/ .

Coping with examinations: exploring relationships between students' coping strategies, implicit theories of ability, and perceived control.

PubMed

Doron, Julie; Stephan, Yannick; Boiché, Julie; Le Scanff, Christine

2009-09-01

Relatively little is known about the contribution of students' beliefs regarding the nature of academic ability (i.e. their implicit theories) on strategies used to deal with examinations. This study applied Dweck's socio-cognitive model of achievement motivation to better understand how students cope with examinations. It was expected that students' implicit theories of academic ability would be related to their use of particular coping strategies to deal with exam-related stress. Additionally, it was predicted that perceived control over exams acts as a mediator between implicit theories of ability and coping. Four hundred and ten undergraduate students (263 males, 147 females), aged from 17 to 26 years old (M=19.73, SD=1.46) were volunteers for the present study. Students completed measures of coping, implicit theories of academic ability, and perception of control over academic examinations during regular classes in the first term of the university year. Multiple regression analyses revealed that incremental beliefs of ability significantly and positively predicted active coping, planning, venting of emotions, seeking social support for emotional and instrumental reasons, whereas entity beliefs positively predicted behavioural disengagement and negatively predicted active coping and acceptance. In addition, analyses revealed that entity beliefs of ability were related to coping strategies through students' perception of control over academic examinations. These results confirm that exam-related coping varies as a function of students' beliefs about the nature of academic ability and their perceptions of control when approaching examinations.

On-orbit evaluation of the control system/structural mode interactions on OSO-8

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slafer, L. I.

1980-01-01

The Orbiting Solar Observatory-8 experienced severe structural mode/control loop interaction problems during the spacecraft development. Extensive analytical studies, using the hybrid coordinate modeling approach, and comprehensive ground testing were carried out in order to achieve the system's precision pointing performance requirements. A recent series of flight tests were conducted with the spacecraft in which a wide bandwidth, high resolution telemetry system was utilized to evaluate the on-orbit flexible dynamics characteristics of the vehicle along with the control system performance. This paper describes the results of these tests, reviewing the basic design problem, analytical approach taken, ground test philosophy, and on-orbit testing. Data from the tests was used to determine the primary mode frequency, damping, and servo coupling dynamics for the on-orbit condition. Additionally, the test results have verified analytically predicted differences between the on-orbit and ground test environments. The test results have led to a validation of both the analytical modeling and servo design techniques used during the development of the control system, and also verified the approach taken to vehicle and servo ground testing.

A Graph Based Approach to Nonlinear Model Predictive Control with Application to Combustion Control and Flow Control

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-21

plants (200 MW and above) produce the majority of the nation’s energy demands, and these are the most heavily regulated by the EPA . The automotive...existing engines are not achieving the best possible efficiency. As in the electric power industry, EPA regulation is a major factor in the US...automotive engine market. Cummins, for example, was the only company in the market to meet the 2010 EPA standards for NOx emissions with their release of a 6.7

What should be considered if you decide to build your own mathematical model for predicting the development of bacterial resistance? Recommendations based on a systematic review of the literature

PubMed Central

Arepeva, Maria; Kolbin, Alexey; Kurylev, Alexey; Balykina, Julia; Sidorenko, Sergey

2015-01-01

Acquired bacterial resistance is one of the causes of mortality and morbidity from infectious diseases. Mathematical modeling allows us to predict the spread of resistance and to some extent to control its dynamics. The purpose of this review was to examine existing mathematical models in order to understand the pros and cons of currently used approaches and to build our own model. During the analysis, seven articles on mathematical approaches to studying resistance that satisfied the inclusion/exclusion criteria were selected. All models were classified according to the approach used to study resistance in the presence of an antibiotic and were analyzed in terms of our research. Some models require modifications due to the specifics of the research. The plan for further work on model building is as follows: modify some models, according to our research, check all obtained models against our data, and select the optimal model or models with the best quality of prediction. After that we would be able to build a model for the development of resistance using the obtained results. PMID:25972847

The Mira-Titan Universe. II. Matter Power Spectrum Emulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, Earl; Heitmann, Katrin; Kwan, Juliana; Upadhye, Amol; Bingham, Derek; Habib, Salman; Higdon, David; Pope, Adrian; Finkel, Hal; Frontiere, Nicholas

2017-09-01

We introduce a new cosmic emulator for the matter power spectrum covering eight cosmological parameters. Targeted at optical surveys, the emulator provides accurate predictions out to a wavenumber k˜ 5 Mpc-1 and redshift z≤slant 2. In addition to covering the standard set of ΛCDM parameters, massive neutrinos and a dynamical dark energy of state are included. The emulator is built on a sample set of 36 cosmological models, carefully chosen to provide accurate predictions over the wide and large parameter space. For each model, we have performed a high-resolution simulation, augmented with 16 medium-resolution simulations and TimeRG perturbation theory results to provide accurate coverage over a wide k-range; the data set generated as part of this project is more than 1.2Pbytes. With the current set of simulated models, we achieve an accuracy of approximately 4%. Because the sampling approach used here has established convergence and error-control properties, follow-up results with more than a hundred cosmological models will soon achieve ˜ 1 % accuracy. We compare our approach with other prediction schemes that are based on halo model ideas and remapping approaches. The new emulator code is publicly available.

Using kaizen to improve employee well-being: Results from two organizational intervention studies.

PubMed

von Thiele Schwarz, Ulrica; Nielsen, Karina M; Stenfors-Hayes, Terese; Hasson, Henna

2017-08-01

Participatory intervention approaches that are embedded in existing organizational structures may improve the efficiency and effectiveness of organizational interventions, but concrete tools are lacking. In the present article, we use a realist evaluation approach to explore the role of kaizen, a lean tool for participatory continuous improvement, in improving employee well-being in two cluster-randomized, controlled participatory intervention studies. Case 1 is from the Danish Postal Service, where kaizen boards were used to implement action plans. The results of multi-group structural equation modeling showed that kaizen served as a mechanism that increased the level of awareness of and capacity to manage psychosocial issues, which, in turn, predicted increased job satisfaction and mental health. Case 2 is from a regional hospital in Sweden that integrated occupational health processes with a pre-existing kaizen system. Multi-group structural equation modeling revealed that, in the intervention group, kaizen work predicted better integration of organizational and employee objectives after 12 months, which, in turn, predicted increased job satisfaction and decreased discomfort at 24 months. The findings suggest that participatory and structured problem-solving approaches that are familiar and visual to employees can facilitate organizational interventions.

The Mira-Titan Universe. II. Matter Power Spectrum Emulation

DOE PAGES

Lawrence, Earl; Heitmann, Katrin; Kwan, Juliana; ...

2017-09-20

We introduce a new cosmic emulator for the matter power spectrum covering eight cosmological parameters. Targeted at optical surveys, the emulator provides accurate predictions out to a wavenumber k ~ 5Mpc -1 and redshift z ≤ 2. Besides covering the standard set of CDM parameters, massive neutrinos and a dynamical dark energy of state are included. The emulator is built on a sample set of 36 cosmological models, carefully chosen to provide accurate predictions over the wide and large parameter space. For each model, we have performed a high-resolution simulation, augmented with sixteen medium-resolution simulations and TimeRG perturbation theory resultsmore » to provide accurate coverage of a wide k-range; the dataset generated as part of this project is more than 1.2Pbyte. With the current set of simulated models, we achieve an accuracy of approximately 4%. Because the sampling approach used here has established convergence and error-control properties, follow-on results with more than a hundred cosmological models will soon achieve ~1% accuracy. We compare our approach with other prediction schemes that are based on halo model ideas and remapping approaches. The new emulator code is publicly available.« less

Using kaizen to improve employee well-being: Results from two organizational intervention studies

PubMed Central

von Thiele Schwarz, Ulrica; Nielsen, Karina M; Stenfors-Hayes, Terese; Hasson, Henna

2016-01-01

Participatory intervention approaches that are embedded in existing organizational structures may improve the efficiency and effectiveness of organizational interventions, but concrete tools are lacking. In the present article, we use a realist evaluation approach to explore the role of kaizen, a lean tool for participatory continuous improvement, in improving employee well-being in two cluster-randomized, controlled participatory intervention studies. Case 1 is from the Danish Postal Service, where kaizen boards were used to implement action plans. The results of multi-group structural equation modeling showed that kaizen served as a mechanism that increased the level of awareness of and capacity to manage psychosocial issues, which, in turn, predicted increased job satisfaction and mental health. Case 2 is from a regional hospital in Sweden that integrated occupational health processes with a pre-existing kaizen system. Multi-group structural equation modeling revealed that, in the intervention group, kaizen work predicted better integration of organizational and employee objectives after 12 months, which, in turn, predicted increased job satisfaction and decreased discomfort at 24 months. The findings suggest that participatory and structured problem-solving approaches that are familiar and visual to employees can facilitate organizational interventions. PMID:28736455

The Mira-Titan Universe. II. Matter Power Spectrum Emulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence, Earl; Heitmann, Katrin; Kwan, Juliana

We introduce a new cosmic emulator for the matter power spectrum covering eight cosmological parameters. Targeted at optical surveys, the emulator provides accurate predictions out to a wavenumber k similar to 5 Mpc(-1) and redshift z <= 2. In addition to covering the standard set of Lambda CDM parameters, massive neutrinos and a dynamical dark energy of state are included. The emulator is built on a sample set of 36 cosmological models, carefully chosen to provide accurate predictions over the wide and large parameter space. For each model, we have performed a high-resolution simulation, augmented with 16 medium-resolution simulations andmore » TimeRG perturbation theory results to provide accurate coverage over a wide k-range; the data set generated as part of this project is more than 1.2Pbytes. With the current set of simulated models, we achieve an accuracy of approximately 4%. Because the sampling approach used here has established convergence and error-control properties, follow-up results with more than a hundred cosmological models will soon achieve similar to 1% accuracy. We compare our approach with other prediction schemes that are based on halo model ideas and remapping approaches.« less

The Mira-Titan Universe. II. Matter Power Spectrum Emulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence, Earl; Heitmann, Katrin; Kwan, Juliana

We introduce a new cosmic emulator for the matter power spectrum covering eight cosmological parameters. Targeted at optical surveys, the emulator provides accurate predictions out to a wavenumber k ~ 5Mpc -1 and redshift z ≤ 2. Besides covering the standard set of CDM parameters, massive neutrinos and a dynamical dark energy of state are included. The emulator is built on a sample set of 36 cosmological models, carefully chosen to provide accurate predictions over the wide and large parameter space. For each model, we have performed a high-resolution simulation, augmented with sixteen medium-resolution simulations and TimeRG perturbation theory resultsmore » to provide accurate coverage of a wide k-range; the dataset generated as part of this project is more than 1.2Pbyte. With the current set of simulated models, we achieve an accuracy of approximately 4%. Because the sampling approach used here has established convergence and error-control properties, follow-on results with more than a hundred cosmological models will soon achieve ~1% accuracy. We compare our approach with other prediction schemes that are based on halo model ideas and remapping approaches. The new emulator code is publicly available.« less

Attentional Bias to Negative Emotion as a Function of Approach and Withdrawal Anger Styles: An ERP Investigation

PubMed Central

Stewart, Jennifer L.; Silton, Rebecca Levin; Sass, Sarah M.; Fisher, Joscelyn E.; Edgar, J. Christopher; Heller, Wendy; Miller, Gregory A.

2010-01-01

Although models of emotion have focused on the relationship between anger and approach motivation associated with aggression, anger is also related to withdrawal motivation. Anger-out and anger-in styles are associated with psychopathology and may disrupt the control of attention within the context of negatively valenced information. The present study used event-related brain potentials (ERPs) to examine whether anger styles uniquely predict attentional bias to negative stimuli during an emotion-word Stroop task. High anger-out predicted larger N200, P300, and N400 to negative words, suggesting that aggressive individuals exert more effort to override attention to negative information. In contrast, high anger-in predicted smaller N400 amplitude to negative words, indicating that negative information may be readily available (primed) for anger suppressors, requiring fewer resources. Individuals with an anger-out style might benefit from being directed away from provocative stimuli that might otherwise consume their attention and foster overt aggression. Findings indicating that anger-out and anger-in were associated with divergent patterns of brain activity provide support for distinguishing approach- and withdrawal-related anger styles. PMID:20109502

Modeling and Classifying Six-Dimensional Trajectories for Teleoperation Under a Time Delay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

SunSpiral, Vytas; Wheeler, Kevin R.; Allan, Mark B.; Martin, Rodney

2006-01-01

Within the context of teleoperating the JSC Robonaut humanoid robot under 2-10 second time delays, this paper explores the technical problem of modeling and classifying human motions represented as six-dimensional (position and orientation) trajectories. A dual path research agenda is reviewed which explored both deterministic approaches and stochastic approaches using Hidden Markov Models. Finally, recent results are shown from a new model which represents the fusion of these two research paths. Questions are also raised about the possibility of automatically generating autonomous actions by reusing the same predictive models of human behavior to be the source of autonomous control. This approach changes the role of teleoperation from being a stand-in for autonomy into the first data collection step for developing generative models capable of autonomous control of the robot.

Combining Knowledge and Data Driven Insights for Identifying Risk Factors using Electronic Health Records

PubMed Central

Sun, Jimeng; Hu, Jianying; Luo, Dijun; Markatou, Marianthi; Wang, Fei; Edabollahi, Shahram; Steinhubl, Steven E.; Daar, Zahra; Stewart, Walter F.

2012-01-01

Background: The ability to identify the risk factors related to an adverse condition, e.g., heart failures (HF) diagnosis, is very important for improving care quality and reducing cost. Existing approaches for risk factor identification are either knowledge driven (from guidelines or literatures) or data driven (from observational data). No existing method provides a model to effectively combine expert knowledge with data driven insight for risk factor identification. Methods: We present a systematic approach to enhance known knowledge-based risk factors with additional potential risk factors derived from data. The core of our approach is a sparse regression model with regularization terms that correspond to both knowledge and data driven risk factors. Results: The approach is validated using a large dataset containing 4,644 heart failure cases and 45,981 controls. The outpatient electronic health records (EHRs) for these patients include diagnosis, medication, lab results from 2003–2010. We demonstrate that the proposed method can identify complementary risk factors that are not in the existing known factors and can better predict the onset of HF. We quantitatively compare different sets of risk factors in the context of predicting onset of HF using the performance metric, the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC). The combined risk factors between knowledge and data significantly outperform knowledge-based risk factors alone. Furthermore, those additional risk factors are confirmed to be clinically meaningful by a cardiologist. Conclusion: We present a systematic framework for combining knowledge and data driven insights for risk factor identification. We demonstrate the power of this framework in the context of predicting onset of HF, where our approach can successfully identify intuitive and predictive risk factors beyond a set of known HF risk factors. PMID:23304365

Dissertation Defense Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groves, Curtis Edward

2014-01-01

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This paper describes an approach to quantify the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft without the use of test data. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional "validation by test only" mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions. Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computational Fluid Dynamics can be used to verify these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. This research includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available and open source solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT, STARCCM+, and OPENFOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model using the methodology found in "Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations". This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System /spacecraft system. Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Dissertation Defense: Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groves, Curtis Edward

2014-01-01

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This paper describes an approach to quantify the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft without the use of test data. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional validation by test only mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions.Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computational Fluid Dynamics can be used to verify these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. This research includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available and open source solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT, STARCCM+, and OPENFOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model using the methodology found in Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations. This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System spacecraft system.Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groves, Curtis E.

2013-01-01

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This proposal describes an approach to validate the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft. The research described here is absolutely cutting edge. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional"validation by test only'' mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions. Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computationaf Fluid Dynamics can be used to veritY these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. The proposed research project includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT and OPEN FOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid . . . Dynamics model using the methodology found in "Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations". This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System /spacecraft system. Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. To date, the author is the only person to look at the uncertainty in the entire computational domain. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, threedimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Predictability of bee community composition after floral removals differs by floral trait group.

PubMed

Urban-Mead, Katherine R

2017-11-01

Plant-bee visitor communities are complex networks. While studies show that deleting nodes alters network topology, predicting these changes in the field remains difficult. Here, a simple trait-based approach is tested for predicting bee community composition following disturbance. I selected six fields with mixed cover of flower species with shallow (open) and deep (tube) nectar access, and removed all flowers or flower heads of species of each trait in different plots paired with controls, then observed bee foraging and composition. I compared the bee community in each manipulated plot with bees on the same flower species in control plots. The bee morphospecies composition in manipulations with only tube flowers remaining was the same as that in the control plots, while the bee morphospecies on only open flowers were dissimilar from those in control plots. However, the proportion of short- and long-tongued bees on focal flowers did not differ between control and manipulated plots for either manipulation. So, bees within some functional groups are more strongly linked to their floral trait partners than others. And, it may be more fruitful to describe expected bee community compositions in terms of relative proportions of relevant ecological traits than species, particularly in species-diverse communities. © 2017 The Author(s).

A numerical evaluation of the dynamical systems approach to wall layer turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berkooz, Gal

1990-01-01

This work attempts to test predictions based on the Dynamical Systems approach to Wall Layer Turbulence. We analyze the Dynamical Systems model for the nonlinear interaction mechanisms between the coherent structures and deduce qualitative behavior as expected. We then test for this behavior in data sets from D.N.S. The agreement is good, given the suboptimal conditions for the test. We discuss implications of this test and work to be done to deepen the understanding of control of turbulent boundary layers.

Modeling of Pedestrian Flows Using Hybrid Models of Euler Equations and Dynamical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bärwolff, Günter; Slawig, Thomas; Schwandt, Hartmut

2007-09-01

In the last years various systems have been developed for controlling, planning and predicting the traffic of persons and vehicles, in particular under security aspects. Going beyond pure counting and statistical models, approaches were found to be very adequate and accurate which are based on well-known concepts originally developed in very different research areas, namely continuum mechanics and computer science. In the present paper, we outline a continuum mechanical approach for the description of pedestrain flow.

Filtering sensory information with XCSF: improving learning robustness and robot arm control performance.

PubMed

Kneissler, Jan; Stalph, Patrick O; Drugowitsch, Jan; Butz, Martin V

2014-01-01

It has been shown previously that the control of a robot arm can be efficiently learned using the XCSF learning classifier system, which is a nonlinear regression system based on evolutionary computation. So far, however, the predictive knowledge about how actual motor activity changes the state of the arm system has not been exploited. In this paper, we utilize the forward velocity kinematics knowledge of XCSF to alleviate the negative effect of noisy sensors for successful learning and control. We incorporate Kalman filtering for estimating successive arm positions, iteratively combining sensory readings with XCSF-based predictions of hand position changes over time. The filtered arm position is used to improve both trajectory planning and further learning of the forward velocity kinematics. We test the approach on a simulated kinematic robot arm model. The results show that the combination can improve learning and control performance significantly. However, it also shows that variance estimates of XCSF prediction may be underestimated, in which case self-delusional spiraling effects can hinder effective learning. Thus, we introduce a heuristic parameter, which can be motivated by theory, and which limits the influence of XCSF's predictions on its own further learning input. As a result, we obtain drastic improvements in noise tolerance, allowing the system to cope with more than 10 times higher noise levels.

Controlling the Surface Chemistry of Graphite by Engineered Self-Assembled Peptides

PubMed Central

Khatayevich, Dmitriy; So, Christopher R.; Hayamizu, Yuhei; Gresswell, Carolyn; Sarikaya, Mehmet

2012-01-01

The systematic control over surface chemistry is a long-standing challenge in biomedical and nanotechnological applications for graphitic materials. As a novel approach, we utilize graphite-binding dodecapeptides that self-assemble into dense domains to form monolayer thick long-range ordered films on graphite. Specifically, the peptides are rationally designed through their amino acid sequences to predictably display hydrophilic and hydrophobic characteristics while maintaining their self-assembly capabilities on the solid substrate. The peptides are observed to maintain a high tolerance for sequence modification, allowing the control over surface chemistry via their amino acid sequence. Furthermore, through a single step co-assembly of two different designed peptides, we predictably and precisely tune the wettability of the resulting functionalized graphite surfaces from 44 to 83 degrees. The modular molecular structures and predictable behavior of short peptides demonstrated here give rise to a novel platform for functionalizing graphitic materials that offers numerous advantages, including non-invasive modification of the substrate, bio-compatible processing in an aqueous environment, and simple fusion with other functional biological molecules. PMID:22428620

Coupled information diffusion--pest dynamics models predict delayed benefits of farmer cooperation in pest management programs.

PubMed

Rebaudo, François; Dangles, Olivier

2011-10-01

Worldwide, the theory and practice of agricultural extension system have been dominated for almost half a century by Rogers' "diffusion of innovation theory". In particular, the success of integrated pest management (IPM) extension programs depends on the effectiveness of IPM information diffusion from trained farmers to other farmers, an important assumption which underpins funding from development organizations. Here we developed an innovative approach through an agent-based model (ABM) combining social (diffusion theory) and biological (pest population dynamics) models to study the role of cooperation among small-scale farmers to share IPM information for controlling an invasive pest. The model was implemented with field data, including learning processes and control efficiency, from large scale surveys in the Ecuadorian Andes. Our results predict that although cooperation had short-term costs for individual farmers, it paid in the long run as it decreased pest infestation at the community scale. However, the slow learning process placed restrictions on the knowledge that could be generated within farmer communities over time, giving rise to natural lags in IPM diffusion and applications. We further showed that if individuals learn from others about the benefits of early prevention of new pests, then educational effort may have a sustainable long-run impact. Consistent with models of information diffusion theory, our results demonstrate how an integrated approach combining ecological and social systems would help better predict the success of IPM programs. This approach has potential beyond pest management as it could be applied to any resource management program seeking to spread innovations across populations.

Association of goal orientation with work engagement and burnout in emergency nurses.

PubMed

Adriaenssens, Jef; De Gucht, Veronique; Maes, Stan

2015-01-01

Goal orientation is a mindset towards the achievement of work-related goals, and it has been found to be related to occupational well-being. This study explored to what extent the 4-dimensional model of goal orientation adds additional variance to the explanation of burnout and work engagement in emergency nurses, after controlling for demographics, job characteristics and organizational variables. Self-report questionnaires including the Leiden Quality of Work Questionnaire for Nurses, Goal Orientation Questionnaire, Maslach Burnout Inventory and Utrecht Work Engagement Scale were completed by 170 out of 274 emergency nurses from 13 secondary Belgian hospitals (response rate 62%). Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were conducted. Goal orientation explained 14 and 13% of the variance in burnout and work engagement respectively. Job control was predictive of both outcomes. Job demands was a predictor of burnout, and social support predicted work engagement. Reward was related to work engagement. The mastery-approach goal orientation was strongly related to an increase in work engagement and to a decrease in burnout. The performance-avoidance goal orientation was strongly related to a decrease in work engagement and to an increase in burnout. The performance-approach and mastery-avoidance goal orientations were not predictive for the two outcome variables. Goal orientation explains additional variance in burnout and work engagement over and above work characteristics and organizational variables. A mastery-approach goal orientation appears to be beneficial while a performance-avoidance goal orientation is not. Hospital management should therefore invest in personal involvement and growth of ER-nurses and in a rewarding organizational culture.

Synchrophasor Sensing and Processing based Smart Grid Security Assessment for Renewable Energy Integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Huaiguang

With the evolution of energy and power systems, the emerging Smart Grid (SG) is mainly featured by distributed renewable energy generations, demand-response control and huge amount of heterogeneous data sources. Widely distributed synchrophasor sensors, such as phasor measurement units (PMUs) and fault disturbance recorders (FDRs), can record multi-modal signals, for power system situational awareness and renewable energy integration. An effective and economical approach is proposed for wide-area security assessment. This approach is based on wavelet analysis for detecting and locating the short-term and long-term faults in SG, using voltage signals collected by distributed synchrophasor sensors. A data-driven approach for fault detection, identification and location is proposed and studied. This approach is based on matching pursuit decomposition (MPD) using Gaussian atom dictionary, hidden Markov model (HMM) of real-time frequency and voltage variation features, and fault contour maps generated by machine learning algorithms in SG systems. In addition, considering the economic issues, the placement optimization of distributed synchrophasor sensors is studied to reduce the number of the sensors without affecting the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed approach. Furthermore, because the natural hazards is a critical issue for power system security, this approach is studied under different types of faults caused by natural hazards. A fast steady-state approach is proposed for voltage security of power systems with a wind power plant connected. The impedance matrix can be calculated by the voltage and current information collected by the PMUs. Based on the impedance matrix, locations in SG can be identified, where cause the greatest impact on the voltage at the wind power plants point of interconnection. Furthermore, because this dynamic voltage security assessment method relies on time-domain simulations of faults at different locations, the proposed approach is feasible, convenient and effective. Conventionally, wind energy is highly location-dependent. Many desirable wind resources are located in rural areas without direct access to the transmission grid. By connecting MW-scale wind turbines or wind farms to the distributions system of SG, the cost of building long transmission facilities can be avoid and wind power supplied to consumers can be greatly increased. After the effective wide area monitoring (WAM) approach is built, an event-driven control strategy is proposed for renewable energy integration. This approach is based on support vector machine (SVM) predictor and multiple-input and multiple-output (MIMO) model predictive control (MPC) on linear time-invariant (LTI) and linear time-variant (LTV) systems. The voltage condition of the distribution system is predicted by the SVM classifier using synchrophasor measurement data. The controllers equipped with wind turbine generators are triggered by the prediction results. Both transmission level and distribution level are designed based on this proposed approach. Considering economic issues in the power system, a statistical scheduling approach to economic dispatch and energy reserves is proposed. The proposed approach focuses on minimizing the overall power operating cost with considerations of renewable energy uncertainty and power system security. The hybrid power system scheduling is formulated as a convex programming problem to minimize power operating cost, taking considerations of renewable energy generation, power generation-consumption balance and power system security. A genetic algorithm based approach is used for solving the minimization of the power operating cost. In addition, with technology development, it can be predicted that the renewable energy such as wind turbine generators and PV panels will be pervasively located in distribution systems. The distribution system is an unbalanced system, which contains single-phase, two-phase and three-phase loads, and distribution lines. The complex configuration brings a challenge to power flow calculation. A topology analysis based iterative approach is used to solve this problem. In this approach, a self-adaptive topology recognition method is used to analyze the distribution system, and the backward/forward sweep algorithm is used to generate the power flow results. Finally, for the numerical simulations, the IEEE 14-bus, 30-bus, 39-bus and 118-bus systems are studied for fault detection, identification and location. Both transmission level and distribution level models are employed with the proposed control strategy for voltage stability of renewable energy integration. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. The IEEE 24-bus reliability test system (IEEE-RTS), which is commonly used for evaluating the price stability and reliability of power system, is used as the test bench for verifying and evaluating system performance of the proposed scheduling approach.

Optogenetic activation of neocortical neurons in vivo with a sapphire-based micro-scale LED probe.

PubMed

McAlinden, Niall; Gu, Erdan; Dawson, Martin D; Sakata, Shuzo; Mathieson, Keith

2015-01-01

Optogenetics has proven to be a revolutionary technology in neuroscience and has advanced continuously over the past decade. However, optical stimulation technologies for in vivo need to be developed to match the advances in genetics and biochemistry that have driven this field. In particular, conventional approaches for in vivo optical illumination have a limitation on the achievable spatio-temporal resolution. Here we utilize a sapphire-based microscale gallium nitride light-emitting diode (μLED) probe to activate neocortical neurons in vivo. The probes were designed to contain independently controllable multiple μLEDs, emitting at 450 nm wavelength with an irradiance of up to 2 W/mm(2). Monte-Carlo stimulations predicted that optical stimulation using a μLED can modulate neural activity within a localized region. To validate this prediction, we tested this probe in the mouse neocortex that expressed channelrhodopsin-2 (ChR2) and compared the results with optical stimulation through a fiber at the cortical surface. We confirmed that both approaches reliably induced action potentials in cortical neurons and that the μLED probe evoked strong responses in deep neurons. Due to the possibility to integrate many optical stimulation sites onto a single shank, the μLED probe is thus a promising approach to control neurons locally in vivo.

Predictive genetic testing for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer: psychological distress and illness representations 1 year following disclosure.

PubMed

Claes, E; Evers-Kiebooms, G; Denayer, L; Decruyenaere, M; Boogaerts, A; Philippe, K; Legius, E

2005-10-01

This prospective study evaluates emotional functioning and illness representations in 68 unaffected women (34 carriers/34 noncarriers) 1 year after predictive testing for BRCA1/2 mutations when offered within a multidisciplinary approach. Carriers had higher subjective risk perception of breast cancer than noncarriers. Carriers who did not have prophylactic oophorectomy had the highest risk perception of ovarian cancer. No differences were found between carriers and noncarriers regarding perceived seriousness and perceived control of breast and ovarian cancer. Mean levels of distress were within normal ranges. Only few women showed an overall pattern of clinically elevated distress. Cancer-specific distress and state-anxiety significantly decreased in noncarriers from pre- to posttest while general distress remained about the same. There were no significant changes in distress in the group of carriers except for ovarian cancer distress which significantly decreased from pre- to posttest. Our study did not reveal adverse effects of predictive testing when offered in the context of a multidisciplinary approach.

Meta-Analysis of the Reasoned Action Approach (RAA) to Understanding Health Behaviors.

PubMed

McEachan, Rosemary; Taylor, Natalie; Harrison, Reema; Lawton, Rebecca; Gardner, Peter; Conner, Mark

2016-08-01

Reasoned action approach (RAA) includes subcomponents of attitude (experiential/instrumental), perceived norm (injunctive/descriptive), and perceived behavioral control (capacity/autonomy) to predict intention and behavior. To provide a meta-analysis of the RAA for health behaviors focusing on comparing the pairs of RAA subcomponents and differences between health protection and health-risk behaviors. The present research reports a meta-analysis of correlational tests of RAA subcomponents, examination of moderators, and combined effects of subcomponents on intention and behavior. Regressions were used to predict intention and behavior based on data from studies measuring all variables. Capacity and experiential attitude had large, and other constructs had small-medium-sized correlations with intention; all constructs except autonomy were significant independent predictors of intention in regressions. Intention, capacity, and experiential attitude had medium-large, and other constructs had small-medium-sized correlations with behavior; intention, capacity, experiential attitude, and descriptive norm were significant independent predictors of behavior in regressions. The RAA subcomponents have utility in predicting and understanding health behaviors.

Benchmarking of dynamic simulation predictions in two software platforms using an upper limb musculoskeletal model

PubMed Central

Saul, Katherine R.; Hu, Xiao; Goehler, Craig M.; Vidt, Meghan E.; Daly, Melissa; Velisar, Anca; Murray, Wendy M.

2014-01-01

Several opensource or commercially available software platforms are widely used to develop dynamic simulations of movement. While computational approaches are conceptually similar across platforms, technical differences in implementation may influence output. We present a new upper limb dynamic model as a tool to evaluate potential differences in predictive behavior between platforms. We evaluated to what extent differences in technical implementations in popular simulation software environments result in differences in kinematic predictions for single and multijoint movements using EMG- and optimization-based approaches for deriving control signals. We illustrate the benchmarking comparison using SIMM-Dynamics Pipeline-SD/Fast and OpenSim platforms. The most substantial divergence results from differences in muscle model and actuator paths. This model is a valuable resource and is available for download by other researchers. The model, data, and simulation results presented here can be used by future researchers to benchmark other software platforms and software upgrades for these two platforms. PMID:24995410

Prognostics for Ground Support Systems: Case Study on Pneumatic Valves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew; Goebel, Kai

2011-01-01

Prognostics technologies determine the health (or damage) state of a component or sub-system, and make end of life (EOL) and remaining useful life (RUL) predictions. Such information enables system operators to make informed maintenance decisions and streamline operational and mission-level activities. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology for pneumatic valves used in ground support equipment for cryogenic propellant loading operations. These valves are used to control the flow of propellant, so failures may have a significant impact on launch availability. Therefore, correctly predicting when valves will fail enables timely maintenance that avoids launch delays and aborts. The approach utilizes mathematical models describing the underlying physics of valve degradation, and, employing the particle filtering algorithm for joint state-parameter estimation, determines the health state of the valve and the rate of damage progression, from which EOL and RUL predictions are made. We develop a prototype user interface for valve prognostics, and demonstrate the prognostics approach using historical pneumatic valve data from the Space Shuttle refueling system.

Enhanced Predictive Handover for Fast Proxy Mobile IPv6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeon, Seil; Kang, Namhi; Kim, Younghan

Proxy Mobile IPv6 (PMIPv6) has been proposed in order to overcome the limitations of host-based mobility management in IPv6 networks. However, packet losses during doing handover are still a problem. To solve this issue, several schemes have been developed, and can be classified into two approaches: predictive and reactive handover. Both approaches commonly use bi-directional tunnel between mobile access gateways (MAGs). In predictive schemes especially, mobility support for a mobile node (MN) is triggered by simplified link signal strength. Thereafter, the MN sends handover notification to its serving MAG, and is then able to initiate packet forwarding. Therefore, if the MN moves toward an unexpected MAG that does not have any pre-established tunnel with the serving MAG, it may lead to packet losses. In this paper, we define this problem as Early Packet Forwarding (EPF). As a solution, we propose an enhanced PMIPv6 scheme using two-phase tunnel control based on the IEEE 802.21 Media Independent Handover (MIH).

Benchmarking of dynamic simulation predictions in two software platforms using an upper limb musculoskeletal model.

PubMed

Saul, Katherine R; Hu, Xiao; Goehler, Craig M; Vidt, Meghan E; Daly, Melissa; Velisar, Anca; Murray, Wendy M

2015-01-01

Several opensource or commercially available software platforms are widely used to develop dynamic simulations of movement. While computational approaches are conceptually similar across platforms, technical differences in implementation may influence output. We present a new upper limb dynamic model as a tool to evaluate potential differences in predictive behavior between platforms. We evaluated to what extent differences in technical implementations in popular simulation software environments result in differences in kinematic predictions for single and multijoint movements using EMG- and optimization-based approaches for deriving control signals. We illustrate the benchmarking comparison using SIMM-Dynamics Pipeline-SD/Fast and OpenSim platforms. The most substantial divergence results from differences in muscle model and actuator paths. This model is a valuable resource and is available for download by other researchers. The model, data, and simulation results presented here can be used by future researchers to benchmark other software platforms and software upgrades for these two platforms.

Indentation quantification for in-liquid nanomechanical measurement of soft material using an atomic force microscope: rate-dependent elastic modulus of live cells.

PubMed

Ren, Juan; Yu, Shiyan; Gao, Nan; Zou, Qingze

2013-11-01

In this paper, a control-based approach to replace the conventional method to achieve accurate indentation quantification is proposed for nanomechanical measurement of live cells using atomic force microscope. Accurate indentation quantification is central to probe-based nanomechanical property measurement. The conventional method for in-liquid nanomechanical measurement of live cells, however, fails to accurately quantify the indentation as effects of the relative probe acceleration and the hydrodynamic force are not addressed. As a result, significant errors and uncertainties are induced in the nanomechanical properties measured. In this paper, a control-based approach is proposed to account for these adverse effects by tracking the same excitation force profile on both a live cell and a hard reference sample through the use of an advanced control technique, and by quantifying the indentation from the difference of the cantilever base displacement in these two measurements. The proposed control-based approach not only eliminates the relative probe acceleration effect with no need to calibrate the parameters involved, but it also reduces the hydrodynamic force effect significantly when the force load rate becomes high. We further hypothesize that, by using the proposed control-based approach, the rate-dependent elastic modulus of live human epithelial cells under different stress conditions can be reliably quantified to predict the elasticity evolution of cell membranes, and hence can be used to predict cellular behaviors. By implementing the proposed approach, the elastic modulus of HeLa cells before and after the stress process were quantified as the force load rate was changed over three orders of magnitude from 0.1 to 100 Hz, where the amplitude of the applied force and the indentation were at 0.4-2 nN and 250-450 nm, respectively. The measured elastic modulus of HeLa cells showed a clear power-law dependence on the load rate, both before and after the stress process. Moreover, the elastic modulus of HeLa cells was substantially reduced by two to five times due to the stress process. Thus, our measurements demonstrate that the control-based protocol is effective in quantifying and characterizing the evolution of nanomechanical properties during the stress process of live cells.

Overview of Active Flow Control at NASA Langley Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pack, L. G.; Joslin, R. D.

1998-01-01

The paper summarizes Active Flow Control projects currently underway at the NASA Langley Research Center. Technology development is being pursued within a multidisciplinary, cooperative approach, involving the classical disciplines of fluid mechanics, structural mechanics, material science, acoustics, and stability and control theory. Complementing the companion papers in this session, the present paper will focus on projects that have the goal of extending the state-of-the-art in the measurement, prediction, and control of unsteady, nonlinear aerodynamics. Toward this goal, innovative actuators, micro and macro sensors, and control strategies are considered for high payoff flow control applications. The target payoffs are outlined within each section below. Validation of the approaches range from bench-top experiments to wind-tunnel experiments to flight tests. Obtaining correlations for future actuator and sensor designs are implicit in the discussion. The products of the demonstration projects and design tool development from the fundamental NASA R&D level technology will then be transferred to the Applied Research components within NASA, DOD, and US Industry. Keywords: active flow control, separation control, MEMS, review

Output MSE and PSNR prediction in DCT-based lossy compression of remote sensing images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozhemiakin, Ruslan A.; Abramov, Sergey K.; Lukin, Vladimir V.; Vozel, Benoit; Chehdi, Kacem

2017-10-01

Amount and size of remote sensing (RS) images acquired by modern systems are so large that data have to be compressed in order to transfer, save and disseminate them. Lossy compression becomes more popular for aforementioned situations. But lossy compression has to be applied carefully with providing acceptable level of introduced distortions not to lose valuable information contained in data. Then introduced losses have to be controlled and predicted and this is problematic for many coders. In this paper, we analyze possibilities of predicting mean square error or, equivalently, PSNR for coders based on discrete cosine transform (DCT) applied either for compressing singlechannel RS images or multichannel data in component-wise manner. The proposed approach is based on direct dependence between distortions introduced due to DCT coefficient quantization and losses in compressed data. One more innovation deals with possibility to employ a limited number (percentage) of blocks for which DCT-coefficients have to be calculated. This accelerates prediction and makes it considerably faster than compression itself. There are two other advantages of the proposed approach. First, it is applicable for both uniform and non-uniform quantization of DCT coefficients. Second, the approach is quite general since it works for several analyzed DCT-based coders. The simulation results are obtained for standard test images and then verified for real-life RS data.

Learning Behaviour and Learning Outcomes: The Roles for Social Influence and Field of Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smyth, Lillian; Mavor, Kenneth I.; Platow, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Research has demonstrated a significant role of discipline social identification in predicting learning approaches, even controlling for individual differences. Smyth et al. ("Educ Psychol" 35(1):53-72, 2015. doi:10.1080/01443410.2013.822962) suggest that learners share discipline-based social identifications, and that this…

Predicting Future-Year Ozone Concentrations: Integrated Observational-Modeling Approach for Probabilistic Evaluation of the Efficacy of Emission Control strategies

EPA Science Inventory

Regional-scale air quality models are being used to demonstrate attainment of the ozone air quality standard. In current regulatory applications, a regional-scale air quality model is applied for a base year and a future year with reduced emissions using the same meteorological ...

Psychosocial Factors as Predictors of Mentoring among Nurses in Southwestern Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salami, Samuel O.

2008-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the psychosocial factors that predict mentoring among nurses. Design/methodology/approach: This study adopted a survey research design. Questionnaires were used to collect data on self-esteem, locus of control, emotional intelligence and demographic factors from 480 nurses (males 230; females = 250)…

Use of QSAR validation principles to enhance predictive approaches in the US EPA ECOSAR model

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA Office of Pollution Prevention and Toxics (OPPT) is responsible for implementing the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA). TSCA is the US law that regulates industrial chemicals in the US and OPPT evaluates both new chemicals entering commerce, as well as those chemica...

Impact of Learned Resourcefulness and Theories of Intelligence on Academic Achievement of University Students: An Integrated Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kennett, Deborah J.; Keefer, Kateryna

2006-01-01

This was the first study to integrate Rosenbaum's concept of learned resourcefulness with Dweck's implicit theories of intelligence in predicting university students' academic self-control behaviour and year-end grades. Rosenbaum highlights the prominent role that learned resourcefulness skills play in promoting mastery responses and goal…

Joint nonlinearity effects in the design of a flexible truss structure control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mercadal, Mathieu

1986-01-01

Nonlinear effects are introduced in the dynamics of large space truss structures by the connecting joints which are designed with rather important tolerances to facilitate the assembly of the structures in space. The purpose was to develop means to investigate the nonlinear dynamics of the structures, particularly the limit cycles that might occur when active control is applied to the structures. An analytical method was sought and derived to predict the occurrence of limit cycles and to determine their stability. This method is mainly based on the quasi-linearization of every joint using describing functions. This approach was proven successful when simple dynamical systems were tested. Its applicability to larger systems depends on the amount of computations it requires, and estimates of the computational task tend to indicate that the number of individual sources of nonlinearity should be limited. Alternate analytical approaches, which do not account for every single nonlinearity, or the simulation of a simplified model of the dynamical system should, therefore, be investigated to determine a more effective way to predict limit cycles in large dynamical systems with an important number of distributed nonlinearities.

Design-based modeling of magnetically actuated soft diaphragm materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayaneththi, V. R.; Aw, K. C.; McDaid, A. J.

2018-04-01

Magnetic polymer composites (MPC) have shown promise for emerging biomedical applications such as lab-on-a-chip and implantable drug delivery. These soft material actuators are capable of fast response, large deformation and wireless actuation. Existing MPC modeling approaches are computationally expensive and unsuitable for rapid design prototyping and real-time control applications. This paper proposes a macro-scale 1-DOF model capable of predicting force and displacement of an MPC diaphragm actuator. Model validation confirmed both blocked force and displacement can be accurately predicted in a variety of working conditions i.e. different magnetic field strengths, static/dynamic fields, and gap distances. The contribution of this work includes a comprehensive experimental investigation of a macro-scale diaphragm actuator; the derivation and validation of a new phenomenological model to describe MPC actuation; and insights into the proposed model’s design-based functionality i.e. scalability and generalizability in terms of magnetic filler concentration and diaphragm diameter. Due to the lumped element modeling approach, the proposed model can also be adapted to alternative actuator configurations, and thus presents a useful tool for design, control and simulation of novel MPC applications.

Prediction of Rate Constant for Supramolecular Systems with Multiconfigurations.

PubMed

Guo, Tao; Li, Haiyan; Wu, Li; Guo, Zhen; Yin, Xianzhen; Wang, Caifen; Sun, Lixin; Shao, Qun; Gu, Jingkai; York, Peter; Zhang, Jiwen

2016-02-25

The control of supramolecular systems requires a thorough understanding of their dynamics, especially on a molecular level. It is extremely difficult to determine the thermokinetic parameters of supramolecular systems, such as drug-cyclodextrin complexes with fast association/dissociation processes by experimental techniques. In this paper, molecular modeling combined with novel mathematical relationships integrating the thermodynamic/thermokinetic parameters of a series of isomeric multiconfigurations to predict the overall parameters in a range of pH values have been employed to study supramolecular dynamics at the molecular level. A suitable form of Eyring's equation was derived and a two-stage model was introduced. The new approach enabled accurate prediction of the apparent dissociation/association (k(off)/k(on)) and unbinding/binding (k-r/kr) rate constants of the ubiquitous multiconfiguration complexes of the supramolecular system. The pyronine Y (PY) was used as a model system for the validation of the presented method. Interestingly, the predicted k(off) value ((40 ± 1) × 10(5) s(-1), 298 K) of PY is largely in agreement with that previously determined by fluorescence correlation spectroscopy ((5 ± 3) × 10(5) s(-1), 298 K). Moreover, the k(off)/k(on) and k-r/kr for flurbiprofen-β-cylcodextrin and ibuprofen-β-cyclodextrin systems were also predicted and suggested that the association processes are diffusion-controlled. The methodology is considered to be especially useful in the design and selection of excipients for a supramolecular system with preferred association and dissociation rate constants and understanding their mechanisms. It is believed that this new approach could be applicable to a wide range of ligand-receptor supramolecular systems and will surely help in understanding their complex mechanism.

An Improved Incremental Learning Approach for KPI Prognosis of Dynamic Fuel Cell System.

PubMed

Yin, Shen; Xie, Xiaochen; Lam, James; Cheung, Kie Chung; Gao, Huijun

2016-12-01

The key performance indicator (KPI) has an important practical value with respect to the product quality and economic benefits for modern industry. To cope with the KPI prognosis issue under nonlinear conditions, this paper presents an improved incremental learning approach based on available process measurements. The proposed approach takes advantage of the algorithm overlapping of locally weighted projection regression (LWPR) and partial least squares (PLS), implementing the PLS-based prognosis in each locally linear model produced by the incremental learning process of LWPR. The global prognosis results including KPI prediction and process monitoring are obtained from the corresponding normalized weighted means of all the local models. The statistical indicators for prognosis are enhanced as well by the design of novel KPI-related and KPI-unrelated statistics with suitable control limits for non-Gaussian data. For application-oriented purpose, the process measurements from real datasets of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell system are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of KPI prognosis. The proposed approach is finally extended to a long-term voltage prediction for potential reference of further fuel cell applications.

Integrating bioavailability approaches into waste rock evaluations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ranville, James F.; Blumenstein, E. P.; Adams, Michael J.; Choate, LaDonna M.; Smith, Kathleen S.; Wildeman, Thomas R.

2006-01-01

The presence of toxic metals in soils affected by mining, industry, agriculture and urbanization, presents problems to human health, the establishment and maintenance of plant and animal habitats, and the rehabilitation of affected areas. A key to managing these problems is predicting the fraction of metal in a given soil that will be biologically labile, and potentially harmful ('bioavailable'). The molecular form of metals and metalloids, particularly the uncomplexed (free) form, controls their bioavailability and toxicity in solution. One computational approach for determining bioavailability, the biotic ligand model (BLM), takes into account not only metal complexation by ligands in solution, but also competitive binding of hardness cations (Ca 2+,Mg 2+,) and metal ions to biological receptor sites. The more direct approach to assess bioavailability is to explicitly measure the response of an organism to a contaminant. A number of microbial enzyme tests have been developed to assess the impact of pollution in a rapid and procedurally simple way. These different approaches in making bioavailability predictions may have value in setting landuse priorities, remediation goals, and habitat reclamation strategies.

Self-consistent molecular dynamics formulation for electric-field-mediated electrolyte transport through nanochannels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghunathan, A. V.; Aluru, N. R.

2007-07-01

A self-consistent molecular dynamics (SCMD) formulation is presented for electric-field-mediated transport of water and ions through a nanochannel connected to reservoirs or baths. The SCMD formulation is compared with a uniform field MD approach, where the applied electric field is assumed to be uniform, for 2nm and 3.5nm wide nanochannels immersed in a 0.5M KCl solution. Reservoir ionic concentrations are maintained using the dual-control-volume grand canonical molecular dynamics technique. Simulation results with varying channel height indicate that the SCMD approach calculates the electrostatic potential in the simulation domain more accurately compared to the uniform field approach, with the deviation in results increasing with the channel height. The translocation times and ionic fluxes predicted by uniform field MD can be substantially different from those predicted by the SCMD approach. Our results also indicate that during a 2ns simulation time K+ ions can permeate through a 1nm channel when the applied electric field is computed self-consistently, while the permeation is not observed when the electric field is assumed to be uniform.

Several examples where turbulence models fail in inlet flow field analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Bernhard H.

1993-01-01

Computational uncertainties in turbulence modeling for three dimensional inlet flow fields include flows approaching separation, strength of secondary flow field, three dimensional flow predictions of vortex liftoff, and influence of vortex-boundary layer interactions; computational uncertainties in vortex generator modeling include representation of generator vorticity field and the relationship between generator and vorticity field. The objectives of the inlet flow field studies presented in this document are to advance the understanding, prediction, and control of intake distortion and to study the basic interactions that influence this design problem.

Occupant-vehicle dynamics and the role of the internal model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, David J.

2018-05-01

With the increasing need to reduce time and cost of vehicle development there is increasing advantage in simulating mathematically the dynamic interaction of a vehicle and its occupant. The larger design space arising from the introduction of automated vehicles further increases the potential advantage. The aim of the paper is to outline the role of the internal model hypothesis in understanding and modelling occupant-vehicle dynamics, specifically the dynamics associated with direction and speed control of the vehicle. The internal model is the driver's or passenger's understanding of the vehicle dynamics and is thought to be employed in the perception, cognition and action processes of the brain. The internal model aids the estimation of the states of the vehicle from noisy sensory measurements. It can also be used to optimise cognitive control action by predicting the consequence of the action; thus model predictive control (MPC) theory provides a foundation for modelling the cognition process. The stretch reflex of the neuromuscular system also makes use of the prediction of the internal model. Extensions to the MPC approach are described which account for: interaction with an automated vehicle; robust control; intermittent control; and cognitive workload. Further work to extend understanding of occupant-vehicle dynamic interaction is outlined. This paper is based on a keynote presentation given by the author to the 13th International Symposium on Advanced Vehicle Control (AVEC) conference held in Munich, September 2016.

Rocket Ejector Studies for Application to RBCC Engines: An Integrated Experimental/CFD Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pal, S.; Merkle, C. L.; Anderson, W. E.; Santoro, R. J.

1997-01-01

Recent interest in low cost, reliable access to space has generated increased interest in advanced technology approaches to space transportation systems. A key to the success of such programs lies in the development of advanced propulsion systems capable of achieving the performance and operations goals required for the next generation of space vehicles. One extremely promising approach involves the combination of rocket and air- breathing engines into a rocket-based combined-cycle engine (RBCC). A key element of that engine is the rocket ejector which is utilized in the zero to Mach two operating regime. Studies of RBCC engine concepts are not new and studies dating back thirty years are well documented in the literature. However, studies focused on the rocket ejector mode of the RBCC cycle are lacking. The present investigation utilizes an integrated experimental and computation fluid dynamics (CFD) approach to examine critical rocket ejector performance issues. In particular, the development of a predictive methodology capable of performance prediction is a key objective in order to analyze thermal choking and its control, primary/secondary pressure matching considerations, and effects of nozzle expansion ratio. To achieve this objective, the present study emphasizes obtaining new data using advanced optical diagnostics such as Raman spectroscopy and CFD techniques to investigate mixing in the rocket ejector mode. A new research facility for the study of the rocket ejector mode is described along with the diagnostic approaches to be used. The CFD modeling approach is also described along with preliminary CFD predictions obtained to date.

Genetically Predicted Body Mass Index and Alzheimer’s Disease Related Phenotypes in Three Large Samples: Mendelian Randomization Analyses

PubMed Central

Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Walter, Stefan; Kauwe, John S.K.; Saykin, Andrew J.; Bennett, David A.; Larson, Eric B.; Crane, Paul K.; Glymour, M. Maria

2015-01-01

Observational research shows that higher body mass index (BMI) increases Alzheimer’s disease (AD) risk, but it is unclear whether this association is causal. We applied genetic variants that predict BMI in Mendelian Randomization analyses, an approach that is not biased by reverse causation or confounding, to evaluate whether higher BMI increases AD risk. We evaluated individual level data from the AD Genetics Consortium (ADGC: 10,079 AD cases and 9,613 controls), the Health and Retirement Study (HRS: 8,403 participants with algorithm-predicted dementia status) and published associations from the Genetic and Environmental Risk for AD consortium (GERAD1: 3,177 AD cases and 7,277 controls). No evidence from individual SNPs or polygenic scores indicated BMI increased AD risk. Mendelian Randomization effect estimates per BMI point (95% confidence intervals) were: ADGC OR=0.95 (0.90, 1.01); HRS OR=1.00 (0.75, 1.32); GERAD1 OR=0.96 (0.87, 1.07). One subscore (cellular processes not otherwise specified) unexpectedly predicted lower AD risk. PMID:26079416

How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

PubMed Central

Woolhouse, Mark

2011-01-01

Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the ‘art of the possible’, which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for ‘good practice’ for the development and the use of predictive models. PMID:21624924

Predicting plant uptake of cadmium: validated with long-term contaminated soils.

PubMed

Lamb, Dane T; Kader, Mohammed; Ming, Hui; Wang, Liang; Abbasi, Sedigheh; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Naidu, Ravi

2016-10-01

Cadmium accumulates in plant tissues at low soil loadings and is a concern for human health. Yet at higher levels it is also of concern for ecological receptors. We determined Cd partitioning constants for 41 soils to examine the role of soil properties controlling Cd partitioning and plant uptake. From a series of sorption and dose response studies, transfer functions were developed for predicting Cd uptake in Cucumis sativa L. (cucumber). The parameter log K f was predicted with soil pH ca , logCEC and log OC. Transfer of soil pore-water Cd 2+ to shoots was described with a power function (R 2  = 0.73). The dataset was validated with 13 long-term contaminated soils (plus 2 control soils) ranging in Cd concentration from 0.2 to 300 mg kg -1 . The series of equations predicting Cd shoot from pore-water Cd 2+ were able to predict the measured data in the independent dataset (root mean square error = 2.2). The good relationship indicated that Cd uptake to cucumber shoots could be predicted with Cd pore and Cd 2+ without other pore-water parameters such as pH or Ca 2+ . The approach may be adapted to a range of plant species.

An architecture for designing fuzzy logic controllers using neural networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berenji, Hamid R.

1991-01-01

Described here is an architecture for designing fuzzy controllers through a hierarchical process of control rule acquisition and by using special classes of neural network learning techniques. A new method for learning to refine a fuzzy logic controller is introduced. A reinforcement learning technique is used in conjunction with a multi-layer neural network model of a fuzzy controller. The model learns by updating its prediction of the plant's behavior and is related to the Sutton's Temporal Difference (TD) method. The method proposed here has the advantage of using the control knowledge of an experienced operator and fine-tuning it through the process of learning. The approach is applied to a cart-pole balancing system.

A reinforcement learning-based architecture for fuzzy logic control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berenji, Hamid R.

1992-01-01

This paper introduces a new method for learning to refine a rule-based fuzzy logic controller. A reinforcement learning technique is used in conjunction with a multilayer neural network model of a fuzzy controller. The approximate reasoning based intelligent control (ARIC) architecture proposed here learns by updating its prediction of the physical system's behavior and fine tunes a control knowledge base. Its theory is related to Sutton's temporal difference (TD) method. Because ARIC has the advantage of using the control knowledge of an experienced operator and fine tuning it through the process of learning, it learns faster than systems that train networks from scratch. The approach is applied to a cart-pole balancing system.

Using a topographic index to distribute variable source area runoff predicted with the SCS curve-number equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, Steve W.; Walter, M. Todd; Gérard-Marchant, Pierre; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

2004-10-01

Because the traditional Soil Conservation Service curve-number (SCS-CN) approach continues to be used ubiquitously in water quality models, new application methods are needed that are consistent with variable source area (VSA) hydrological processes in the landscape. We developed and tested a distributed approach for applying the traditional SCS-CN equation to watersheds where VSA hydrology is a dominant process. Predicting the location of source areas is important for watershed planning because restricting potentially polluting activities from runoff source areas is fundamental to controlling non-point-source pollution. The method presented here used the traditional SCS-CN approach to predict runoff volume and spatial extent of saturated areas and a topographic index, like that used in TOPMODEL, to distribute runoff source areas through watersheds. The resulting distributed CN-VSA method was applied to two subwatersheds of the Delaware basin in the Catskill Mountains region of New York State and one watershed in south-eastern Australia to produce runoff-probability maps. Observed saturated area locations in the watersheds agreed with the distributed CN-VSA method. Results showed good agreement with those obtained from the previously validated soil moisture routing (SMR) model. When compared with the traditional SCS-CN method, the distributed CN-VSA method predicted a similar total volume of runoff, but vastly different locations of runoff generation. Thus, the distributed CN-VSA approach provides a physically based method that is simple enough to be incorporated into water quality models, and other tools that currently use the traditional SCS-CN method, while still adhering to the principles of VSA hydrology.

Application of Model-based Prognostics to a Pneumatic Valves Testbed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew; Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Gorospe, George

2014-01-01

Pneumatic-actuated valves play an important role in many applications, including cryogenic propellant loading for space operations. Model-based prognostics emphasizes the importance of a model that describes the nominal and faulty behavior of a system, and how faulty behavior progresses in time, causing the end of useful life of the system. We describe the construction of a testbed consisting of a pneumatic valve that allows the injection of faulty behavior and controllable fault progression. The valve opens discretely, and is controlled through a solenoid valve. Controllable leaks of pneumatic gas in the testbed are introduced through proportional valves, allowing the testing and validation of prognostics algorithms for pneumatic valves. A new valve prognostics approach is developed that estimates fault progression and predicts remaining life based only on valve timing measurements. Simulation experiments demonstrate and validate the approach.

Electron beam energy and bunch length feed forward control studies using an artificial neural network at the Linac coherent light source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, E.; Biedron, S. G.; LeBlanc, G.; Morgan, M. J.; Wu, J.

2009-11-01

This paper describes the results of an advanced control algorithm for the stabilization of electron beam energy in a Linac. The approach combines a conventional Proportional-Integral (PI) controller with a neural network (NNET) feed forward algorithm; it utilizes the robustness of PI control and the ability of a feed forward system in order to exert control over a wider range of frequencies. The NNET is trained to recognize jitter occurring in the phase and voltage of one of the klystrons, based on a record of these parameters, and predicts future energy deviations. A systematic approach is developed to determine the optimal NNET parameters that are then applied to the Australian Synchrotron Linac. The system's capability to fully cancel multi-frequency jitter is demonstrated. The NNET system is then augmented with the PI algorithm, and further jitter attenuation is achieved when the NNET is not operating optimally.

Creating and validating cis-regulatory maps of tissue-specific gene expression regulation

PubMed Central

O'Connor, Timothy R.; Bailey, Timothy L.

2014-01-01

Predicting which genomic regions control the transcription of a given gene is a challenge. We present a novel computational approach for creating and validating maps that associate genomic regions (cis-regulatory modules–CRMs) with genes. The method infers regulatory relationships that explain gene expression observed in a test tissue using widely available genomic data for ‘other’ tissues. To predict the regulatory targets of a CRM, we use cross-tissue correlation between histone modifications present at the CRM and expression at genes within 1 Mbp of it. To validate cis-regulatory maps, we show that they yield more accurate models of gene expression than carefully constructed control maps. These gene expression models predict observed gene expression from transcription factor binding in the CRMs linked to that gene. We show that our maps are able to identify long-range regulatory interactions and improve substantially over maps linking genes and CRMs based on either the control maps or a ‘nearest neighbor’ heuristic. Our results also show that it is essential to include CRMs predicted in multiple tissues during map-building, that H3K27ac is the most informative histone modification, and that CAGE is the most informative measure of gene expression for creating cis-regulatory maps. PMID:25200088

An Efficient Interval Type-2 Fuzzy CMAC for Chaos Time-Series Prediction and Synchronization.

PubMed

Lee, Ching-Hung; Chang, Feng-Yu; Lin, Chih-Min

2014-03-01

This paper aims to propose a more efficient control algorithm for chaos time-series prediction and synchronization. A novel type-2 fuzzy cerebellar model articulation controller (T2FCMAC) is proposed. In some special cases, this T2FCMAC can be reduced to an interval type-2 fuzzy neural network, a fuzzy neural network, and a fuzzy cerebellar model articulation controller (CMAC). So, this T2FCMAC is a more generalized network with better learning ability, thus, it is used for the chaos time-series prediction and synchronization. Moreover, this T2FCMAC realizes the un-normalized interval type-2 fuzzy logic system based on the structure of the CMAC. It can provide better capabilities for handling uncertainty and more design degree of freedom than traditional type-1 fuzzy CMAC. Unlike most of the interval type-2 fuzzy system, the type-reduction of T2FCMAC is bypassed due to the property of un-normalized interval type-2 fuzzy logic system. This causes T2FCMAC to have lower computational complexity and is more practical. For chaos time-series prediction and synchronization applications, the training architectures with corresponding convergence analyses and optimal learning rates based on Lyapunov stability approach are introduced. Finally, two illustrated examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed T2FCMAC.

Objective Versus Subjective Measures of Executive Functions: Predictors of Participation and Quality of Life in Parkinson Disease?

PubMed

Vlagsma, Thialda T; Koerts, Janneke; Tucha, Oliver; Dijkstra, Hilde T; Duits, Annelien A; van Laar, Teus; Spikman, Jacoba M

2017-11-01

To determine whether objective (neuropsychological tests) and subjective measures (questionnaires) of executive functions (EFs) are associated in patients with Parkinson disease (PD), and to determine to what extent level of participation and quality of life (QoL) of patients with PD can be predicted by these measures of EFs. Correlational research design (case-control and prediction design). Departments of neuropsychology of 3 medical centers. A sample (N=136) of patients with PD (n=42) and their relatives, and controls without PD (n=94). Not applicable. A test battery measuring EFs. In addition, patients, their relatives, and controls completed the Dysexecutive Questionnaire, Brock Adaptive Functioning Questionnaire, and Barkley Deficits in Executive Functioning Scale - time management questionnaires measuring complaints about EFs. Participation and QoL were measured with the Impact on Participation and Autonomy scale and the Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire-39, respectively. Patients with PD showed impairments in EFs on objective tests and reported significantly more complaints about EFs than did controls without PD. No associations were found between patients' performances on objective and subjective measures of EFs. However, both objective and subjective measures predicted patients' level of participation. In addition, subjective measures of EFs predicted QoL in patients with PD. These findings show that objective and subjective measures of EFs are not interchangeable and that both approaches predict level of participation and QoL in patients with PD. However, within this context, sex needs to be taken into account. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A state-based approach to trend recognition and failure prediction for the Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Kyle S.; Hadden, George D.

1992-01-01

A state-based reasoning approach to trend recognition and failure prediction for the Altitude Determination, and Control System (ADCS) of the Space Station Freedom (SSF) is described. The problem domain is characterized by features (e.g., trends and impending failures) that develop over a variety of time spans, anywhere from several minutes to several years. Our state-based reasoning approach, coupled with intelligent data screening, allows features to be tracked as they develop in a time-dependent manner. That is, each state machine has the ability to encode a time frame for the feature it detects. As features are detected, they are recorded and can be used as input to other state machines, creating a hierarchical feature recognition scheme. Furthermore, each machine can operate independently of the others, allowing simultaneous tracking of features. State-based reasoning was implemented in the trend recognition and the prognostic modules of a prototype Space Station Freedom Maintenance and Diagnostic System (SSFMDS) developed at Honeywell's Systems and Research Center.

A Risk-based Model Predictive Control Approach to Adaptive Interventions in Behavioral Health

PubMed Central

Zafra-Cabeza, Ascensión; Rivera, Daniel E.; Collins, Linda M.; Ridao, Miguel A.; Camacho, Eduardo F.

2010-01-01

This paper examines how control engineering and risk management techniques can be applied in the field of behavioral health through their use in the design and implementation of adaptive behavioral interventions. Adaptive interventions are gaining increasing acceptance as a means to improve prevention and treatment of chronic, relapsing disorders, such as abuse of alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs, mental illness, and obesity. A risk-based Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm is developed for a hypothetical intervention inspired by Fast Track, a real-life program whose long-term goal is the prevention of conduct disorders in at-risk children. The MPC-based algorithm decides on the appropriate frequency of counselor home visits, mentoring sessions, and the availability of after-school recreation activities by relying on a model that includes identifiable risks, their costs, and the cost/benefit assessment of mitigating actions. MPC is particularly suited for the problem because of its constraint-handling capabilities, and its ability to scale to interventions involving multiple tailoring variables. By systematically accounting for risks and adapting treatment components over time, an MPC approach as described in this paper can increase intervention effectiveness and adherence while reducing waste, resulting in advantages over conventional fixed treatment. A series of simulations are conducted under varying conditions to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm. PMID:21643450

Characterizing vaccine-associated risks using cubic smoothing splines.

PubMed

Brookhart, M Alan; Walker, Alexander M; Lu, Yun; Polakowski, Laura; Li, Jie; Paeglow, Corrie; Puenpatom, Tosmai; Izurieta, Hector; Daniel, Gregory W

2012-11-15

Estimating risks associated with the use of childhood vaccines is challenging. The authors propose a new approach for studying short-term vaccine-related risks. The method uses a cubic smoothing spline to flexibly estimate the daily risk of an event after vaccination. The predicted incidence rates from the spline regression are then compared with the expected rates under a log-linear trend that excludes the days surrounding vaccination. The 2 models are then used to estimate the excess cumulative incidence attributable to the vaccination during the 42-day period after vaccination. Confidence intervals are obtained using a model-based bootstrap procedure. The method is applied to a study of known effects (positive controls) and expected noneffects (negative controls) of the measles, mumps, and rubella and measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella vaccines among children who are 1 year of age. The splines revealed well-resolved spikes in fever, rash, and adenopathy diagnoses, with the maximum incidence occurring between 9 and 11 days after vaccination. For the negative control outcomes, the spline model yielded a predicted incidence more consistent with the modeled day-specific risks, although there was evidence of increased risk of diagnoses of congenital malformations after vaccination, possibly because of a "provider visit effect." The proposed approach may be useful for vaccine safety surveillance.

A systems approach to college drinking: development of a deterministic model for testing alcohol control policies.

PubMed

Scribner, Richard; Ackleh, Azmy S; Fitzpatrick, Ben G; Jacquez, Geoffrey; Thibodeaux, Jeremy J; Rommel, Robert; Simonsen, Neal

2009-09-01

The misuse and abuse of alcohol among college students remain persistent problems. Using a systems approach to understand the dynamics of student drinking behavior and thus forecasting the impact of campus policy to address the problem represents a novel approach. Toward this end, the successful development of a predictive mathematical model of college drinking would represent a significant advance for prevention efforts. A deterministic, compartmental model of college drinking was developed, incorporating three processes: (1) individual factors, (2) social interactions, and (3) social norms. The model quantifies these processes in terms of the movement of students between drinking compartments characterized by five styles of college drinking: abstainers, light drinkers, moderate drinkers, problem drinkers, and heavy episodic drinkers. Predictions from the model were first compared with actual campus-level data and then used to predict the effects of several simulated interventions to address heavy episodic drinking. First, the model provides a reasonable fit of actual drinking styles of students attending Social Norms Marketing Research Project campuses varying by "wetness" and by drinking styles of matriculating students. Second, the model predicts that a combination of simulated interventions targeting heavy episodic drinkers at a moderately "dry" campus would extinguish heavy episodic drinkers, replacing them with light and moderate drinkers. Instituting the same combination of simulated interventions at a moderately "wet" campus would result in only a moderate reduction in heavy episodic drinkers (i.e., 50% to 35%). A simple, five-state compartmental model adequately predicted the actual drinking patterns of students from a variety of campuses surveyed in the Social Norms Marketing Research Project study. The model predicted the impact on drinking patterns of several simulated interventions to address heavy episodic drinking on various types of campuses.

A Systems Approach to College Drinking: Development of a Deterministic Model for Testing Alcohol Control Policies*

PubMed Central

Scribner, Richard; Ackleh, Azmy S.; Fitzpatrick, Ben G.; Jacquez, Geoffrey; Thibodeaux, Jeremy J.; Rommel, Robert; Simonsen, Neal

2009-01-01

Objective: The misuse and abuse of alcohol among college students remain persistent problems. Using a systems approach to understand the dynamics of student drinking behavior and thus forecasting the impact of campus policy to address the problem represents a novel approach. Toward this end, the successful development of a predictive mathematical model of college drinking would represent a significant advance for prevention efforts. Method: A deterministic, compartmental model of college drinking was developed, incorporating three processes: (1) individual factors, (2) social interactions, and (3) social norms. The model quantifies these processes in terms of the movement of students between drinking compartments characterized by five styles of college drinking: abstainers, light drinkers, moderate drinkers, problem drinkers, and heavy episodic drinkers. Predictions from the model were first compared with actual campus-level data and then used to predict the effects of several simulated interventions to address heavy episodic drinking. Results: First, the model provides a reasonable fit of actual drinking styles of students attending Social Norms Marketing Research Project campuses varying by “wetness” and by drinking styles of matriculating students. Second, the model predicts that a combination of simulated interventions targeting heavy episodic drinkers at a moderately “dry” campus would extinguish heavy episodic drinkers, replacing them with light and moderate drinkers. Instituting the same combination of simulated interventions at a moderately “wet” campus would result in only a moderate reduction in heavy episodic drinkers (i.e., 50% to 35%). Conclusions: A simple, five-state compartmental model adequately predicted the actual drinking patterns of students from a variety of campuses surveyed in the Social Norms Marketing Research Project study. The model predicted the impact on drinking patterns of several simulated interventions to address heavy episodic drinking on various types of campuses. PMID:19737506

Impulsive Approach Tendencies towards Physical Activity and Sedentary Behaviors, but Not Reflective Intentions, Prospectively Predict Non-Exercise Activity Thermogenesis

PubMed Central

Cheval, Boris; Sarrazin, Philippe; Pelletier, Luc

2014-01-01

Understanding the determinants of non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT) is crucial, given its extensive health benefits. Some scholars have assumed that a proneness to react differently to environmental cues promoting sedentary versus active behaviors could be responsible for inter-individual differences in NEAT. In line with this reflection and grounded on the Reflective-Impulsive Model, we test the assumption that impulsive processes related to sedentary and physical activity behaviors can prospectively predict NEAT, operationalized as spontaneous effort exerted to maintain low intensity muscle contractions within the release phases of an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. Participants (n = 91) completed a questionnaire assessing their intentions to adopt physical activity behaviors and a manikin task to assess impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity behaviors (IAPA) and sedentary behaviors (IASB). Participants were then instructed to perform a maximal handgrip strength task and an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. As hypothesized, multilevel regression analyses revealed that spontaneous effort was (a) positively predicted by IAPA, (b) negatively predicted by IASB, and (c) was not predicted by physical activity intentions, after controlling for some confounding variables such as age, sex, usual PA level and average force provided during the maximal-contraction phases of the task. These effects remained constant throughout all the phases of the task. This study demonstrated that impulsive processes may play a unique role in predicting spontaneous physical activity behaviors. Theoretically, this finding reinforces the utility of a motivational approach based on dual-process models to explain inter-individual differences in NEAT. Implications for health behavior theories and behavior change interventions are outlined. PMID:25526596

Impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity and sedentary behaviors, but not reflective intentions, prospectively predict non-exercise activity thermogenesis.

PubMed

Cheval, Boris; Sarrazin, Philippe; Pelletier, Luc

2014-01-01

Understanding the determinants of non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT) is crucial, given its extensive health benefits. Some scholars have assumed that a proneness to react differently to environmental cues promoting sedentary versus active behaviors could be responsible for inter-individual differences in NEAT. In line with this reflection and grounded on the Reflective-Impulsive Model, we test the assumption that impulsive processes related to sedentary and physical activity behaviors can prospectively predict NEAT, operationalized as spontaneous effort exerted to maintain low intensity muscle contractions within the release phases of an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. Participants (n = 91) completed a questionnaire assessing their intentions to adopt physical activity behaviors and a manikin task to assess impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity behaviors (IAPA) and sedentary behaviors (IASB). Participants were then instructed to perform a maximal handgrip strength task and an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. As hypothesized, multilevel regression analyses revealed that spontaneous effort was (a) positively predicted by IAPA, (b) negatively predicted by IASB, and (c) was not predicted by physical activity intentions, after controlling for some confounding variables such as age, sex, usual PA level and average force provided during the maximal-contraction phases of the task. These effects remained constant throughout all the phases of the task. This study demonstrated that impulsive processes may play a unique role in predicting spontaneous physical activity behaviors. Theoretically, this finding reinforces the utility of a motivational approach based on dual-process models to explain inter-individual differences in NEAT. Implications for health behavior theories and behavior change interventions are outlined.

Risk Assessment and Prediction of Flyrock Distance by Combined Multiple Regression Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation of Quarry Blasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaghani, Danial Jahed; Mahdiyar, Amir; Hasanipanah, Mahdi; Faradonbeh, Roohollah Shirani; Khandelwal, Manoj; Amnieh, Hassan Bakhshandeh

2016-09-01

Flyrock is considered as one of the main causes of human injury, fatalities, and structural damage among all undesirable environmental impacts of blasting. Therefore, it seems that the proper prediction/simulation of flyrock is essential, especially in order to determine blast safety area. If proper control measures are taken, then the flyrock distance can be controlled, and, in return, the risk of damage can be reduced or eliminated. The first objective of this study was to develop a predictive model for flyrock estimation based on multiple regression (MR) analyses, and after that, using the developed MR model, flyrock phenomenon was simulated by the Monte Carlo (MC) approach. In order to achieve objectives of this study, 62 blasting operations were investigated in Ulu Tiram quarry, Malaysia, and some controllable and uncontrollable factors were carefully recorded/calculated. The obtained results of MC modeling indicated that this approach is capable of simulating flyrock ranges with a good level of accuracy. The mean of simulated flyrock by MC was obtained as 236.3 m, while this value was achieved as 238.6 m for the measured one. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was also conducted to investigate the effects of model inputs on the output of the system. The analysis demonstrated that powder factor is the most influential parameter on fly rock among all model inputs. It is noticeable that the proposed MR and MC models should be utilized only in the studied area and the direct use of them in the other conditions is not recommended.

Using ecology to guide the study of cognitive and neural mechanisms of different aspects of spatial memory in food-hoarding animals.

PubMed

Smulders, Tom V; Gould, Kristy L; Leaver, Lisa A

2010-03-27

Understanding the survival value of behaviour does not tell us how the mechanisms that control this behaviour work. Nevertheless, understanding survival value can guide the study of these mechanisms. In this paper, we apply this principle to understanding the cognitive mechanisms that support cache retrieval in scatter-hoarding animals. We believe it is too simplistic to predict that all scatter-hoarding animals will outperform non-hoarding animals on all tests of spatial memory. Instead, we argue that we should look at the detailed ecology and natural history of each species. This understanding of natural history then allows us to make predictions about which aspects of spatial memory should be better in which species. We use the natural hoarding behaviour of the three best-studied groups of scatter-hoarding animals to make predictions about three aspects of their spatial memory: duration, capacity and spatial resolution, and we test these predictions against the existing literature. Having laid out how ecology and natural history can be used to predict detailed cognitive abilities, we then suggest using this approach to guide the study of the neural basis of these abilities. We believe that this complementary approach will reveal aspects of memory processing that would otherwise be difficult to discover.

Artificial intelligence: a new approach for prescription and monitoring of hemodialysis therapy.

PubMed

Akl, A I; Sobh, M A; Enab, Y M; Tattersall, J

2001-12-01

The effect of dialysis on patients is conventionally predicted using a formal mathematical model. This approach requires many assumptions of the processes involved, and validation of these may be difficult. The validity of dialysis urea modeling using a formal mathematical model has been challenged. Artificial intelligence using neural networks (NNs) has been used to solve complex problems without needing a mathematical model or an understanding of the mechanisms involved. In this study, we applied an NN model to study and predict concentrations of urea during a hemodialysis session. We measured blood concentrations of urea, patient weight, and total urea removal by direct dialysate quantification (DDQ) at 30-minute intervals during the session (in 15 chronic hemodialysis patients). The NN model was trained to recognize the evolution of measured urea concentrations and was subsequently able to predict hemodialysis session time needed to reach a target solute removal index (SRI) in patients not previously studied by the NN model (in another 15 chronic hemodialysis patients). Comparing results of the NN model with the DDQ model, the prediction error was 10.9%, with a not significant difference between predicted total urea nitrogen (UN) removal and measured UN removal by DDQ. NN model predictions of time showed a not significant difference with actual intervals needed to reach the same SRI level at the same patient conditions, except for the prediction of SRI at the first 30-minute interval, which showed a significant difference (P = 0.001). This indicates the sensitivity of the NN model to what is called patient clearance time; the prediction error was 8.3%. From our results, we conclude that artificial intelligence applications in urea kinetics can give an idea of intradialysis profiling according to individual clinical needs. In theory, this approach can be extended easily to other solutes, making the NN model a step forward to achieving artificial-intelligent dialysis control.

A Novel Approach of Battery Energy Storage for Improving Value of Wind Power in Deregulated Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Y. Minh; Yoon, Yong Tae

2013-06-01

Wind power producers face many regulation costs in deregulated environment, which remarkably lowers the value of wind power in comparison with the conventional sources. One of these costs is associated with the real-time variation of power output and being paid in frequency control market according to the variation band. In this regard, this paper presents a new approach to the scheduling and operation of battery energy storage installed in wind generation system. This approach depends on the statistic data of wind generation and the prediction of frequency control market prices to determine the optimal charging and discharging of batteries in real-time, which ultimately gives the minimum cost of frequency regulation for wind power producers. The optimization problem is formulated as the trade-off between the decrease in regulation payment and the increase in the cost of using battery energy storage. The approach is illustrated in the case study and the results of simulation show its effectiveness.

A model-based approach to predict muscle synergies using optimization: application to feedback control

PubMed Central

Sharif Razavian, Reza; Mehrabi, Naser; McPhee, John

2015-01-01

This paper presents a new model-based method to define muscle synergies. Unlike the conventional factorization approach, which extracts synergies from electromyographic data, the proposed method employs a biomechanical model and formally defines the synergies as the solution of an optimal control problem. As a result, the number of required synergies is directly related to the dimensions of the operational space. The estimated synergies are posture-dependent, which correlate well with the results of standard factorization methods. Two examples are used to showcase this method: a two-dimensional forearm model, and a three-dimensional driver arm model. It has been shown here that the synergies need to be task-specific (i.e., they are defined for the specific operational spaces: the elbow angle and the steering wheel angle in the two systems). This functional definition of synergies results in a low-dimensional control space, in which every force in the operational space is accurately created by a unique combination of synergies. As such, there is no need for extra criteria (e.g., minimizing effort) in the process of motion control. This approach is motivated by the need for fast and bio-plausible feedback control of musculoskeletal systems, and can have important implications in engineering, motor control, and biomechanics. PMID:26500530

Individualized Statin Benefit for Determining Statin Eligibility in the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease.

PubMed

Thanassoulis, George; Williams, Ken; Altobelli, Kathleen Kimler; Pencina, Michael J; Cannon, Christopher P; Sniderman, Allan D

2016-04-19

Current guidelines recommend statins in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease on the basis of predicted cardiovascular risk without directly considering the expected benefits of statin therapy based on the available randomized, controlled trial evidence. We included 2134 participants representing 71.8 million American residents potentially eligible for statins in primary prevention from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for the years 2005 to 2010. We compared statin eligibilities using 2 separate approaches: a 10-year risk-based approach (≥7.5% 10-year risk) and an individualized benefit approach (ie, based on predicted absolute risk reduction over 10 years [ARR10] ≥2.3% from randomized, controlled trial data). A risk-based approach led to the eligibility of 15.0 million (95% confidence interval, 12.7-17.3 million) Americans, whereas a benefit-based approach identified 24.6 million (95% confidence interval, 21.0-28.1 million). The corresponding numbers needed to treat over 10 years were 21 (range, 9-44) and 25 (range, 9-44). The benefit-based approach identified 9.5 million lower-risk (<7.5% 10-year risk) Americans not currently eligible for statin treatment who had the same or greater expected benefit from statins (≥2.3% ARR10) compared with higher-risk individuals. This lower-risk/acceptable-benefit group includes younger individuals (mean age, 55.2 versus 62.5 years; P<0.001 for benefit based versus risk based) with higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (140 versus133 mg/dL; P=0.01). Statin treatment in this group would be expected to prevent an additional 266 508 cardiovascular events over 10 years. An individualized statin benefit approach can identify lower-risk individuals who have equal or greater expected benefit from statins in primary prevention compared with higher-risk individuals. This approach may help develop guideline recommendations that better identify individuals who meaningfully benefit from statin therapy. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Controls on SOC across space and time: Models with different acclimation schemes make similar spatial predictions but divergent warming predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abramoff, R. Z.; Torn, M. S.; Georgiou, K.; Tang, J.; Riley, W. J.

2017-12-01

Researchers use spatial gradients to estimate long-term ecosystem responses to perturbations. This approach is commonly applied to soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks which change slowly but store the majority of terrestrial carbon. Climate warming may reduce SOC stocks if higher temperatures increase decomposition rates. Yet, it is uncertain how vulnerable SOC is to warming, and whether the same factors - such as organo-mineral associations, climate, or plant inputs - determine SOC stocks across space and time. In order to test the "space for time" concept, we developed two versions of the Substrate-Mineral-Microbe Soil (SuMMS) model - one with microbial temperature acclimation and one without - to analyze observed SOC stocks at 24 sites spanning a wide range of soil types and climate. Both model predictions of SOC were strongly correlated with observations (R2 > 0.9), because mineral sorption capacity was the dominant control over steady-state SOC stock as determined by a Random Forest model. However, the two model versions made fundamentally different predictions of the change in SOC following 5°C soil warming from 2016 to 2100 because the initial mean annual temperature (MAT) was the dominant control over the SOC response. The model with microbial acclimation predicted that SOC would decline 10% at all sites along the transect, while the model with no acclimation predicted large surface SOC losses at high latitude sites and SOC gains at low latitude sites where microbial exoenzymes were already at or near their temperature optimum. These simulations suggest that gradient studies cannot be used to infer site-level responses to warming, because the dominant controls on SOC at steady state (i.e., mineral sorption capacity) are different than the dominant controls on the SOC response to a warming perturbation (i.e., initial MAT, capacity for acclimation).

Rapid assessment of lamp spectrum to quantify ecological effects of light at night.

PubMed

Longcore, Travis; Rodríguez, Airam; Witherington, Blair; Penniman, Jay F; Herf, Lorna; Herf, Michael

2018-06-12

For many decades, the spectral composition of lighting was determined by the type of lamp, which also influenced potential effects of outdoor lights on species and ecosystems. Light-emitting diode (LED) lamps have dramatically increased the range of spectral profiles of light that is economically viable for outdoor lighting. Because of the array of choices, it is necessary to develop methods to predict the effects of different spectral profiles without conducting field studies, especially because older lighting systems are being replaced rapidly. We describe an approach to predict responses of exemplar organisms and groups to lamps of different spectral output by calculating an index based on action spectra from behavioral or visual characteristics of organisms and lamp spectral irradiance. We calculate relative response indices for a range of lamp types and light sources and develop an index that identifies lamps that minimize predicted effects as measured by ecological, physiological, and astronomical indices. Using these assessment metrics, filtered yellow-green and amber LEDs are predicted to have lower effects on wildlife than high pressure sodium lamps, while blue-rich lighting (e.g., K ≥ 2200) would have greater effects. The approach can be updated with new information about behavioral or visual responses of organisms and used to test new lighting products based on spectrum. Together with control of intensity, direction, and duration, the approach can be used to predict and then minimize the adverse effects of lighting and can be tailored to individual species or taxonomic groups. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prediction Effects of Personal, Psychosocial, and Occupational Risk Factors on Low Back Pain Severity Using Artificial Neural Networks Approach in Industrial Workers.

PubMed

Darvishi, Ebrahim; Khotanlou, Hassan; Khoubi, Jamshid; Giahi, Omid; Mahdavi, Neda

2017-09-01

This study aimed to provide an empirical model of predicting low back pain (LBP) by considering the occupational, personal, and psychological risk factor interactions in workers population employed in industrial units using an artificial neural networks approach. A total of 92 workers with LBP as the case group and 68 healthy workers as a control group were selected in various industrial units with similar occupational conditions. The demographic information and personal, occupational, and psychosocial factors of the participants were collected via interview, related questionnaires, consultation with occupational medicine, and also the Rapid Entire Body Assessment worksheet and National Aeronautics and Space Administration Task Load Index software. Then, 16 risk factors for LBP were used as input variables to develop the prediction model. Networks with various multilayered structures were developed using MATLAB. The developed neural networks with 1 hidden layer and 26 neurons had the least error of classification in both training and testing phases. The mean of classification accuracy of the developed neural networks for the testing and training phase data were about 88% and 96%, respectively. In addition, the mean of classification accuracy of both training and testing data was 92%, indicating much better results compared with other methods. It appears that the prediction model using the neural network approach is more accurate compared with other applied methods. Because occupational LBP is usually untreatable, the results of prediction may be suitable for developing preventive strategies and corrective interventions. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Flared landing approach flying qualities. Volume 2: Appendices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weingarten, Norman C.; Berthe, Charles J., Jr.; Rynaski, Edmund G.; Sarrafian, Shahan K.

1986-01-01

An in-flight research study was conducted utilizing the USAF/Total In-Flight Simulator (TIFS) to investigate longitudinal flying qualities for the flared landing approach phase of flight. A consistent set of data were generated for: determining what kind of command response the pilot prefers/requires in order to flare and land an aircraft with precision, and refining a time history criterion that took into account all the necessary variables and the characteristics that would accurately predict flying qualities. Seven evaluation pilots participated representing NASA Langley, NASA Dryden, Calspan, Boeing, Lockheed, and DFVLR (Braunschweig, Germany). The results of the first part of the study provide guidelines to the flight control system designer, using MIL-F-8785-(C) as a guide, that yield the dynamic behavior pilots prefer in flared landings. The results of the second part provide the flying qualities engineer with a derived flying qualities predictive tool which appears to be highly accurate. This time-domain predictive flying qualities criterion was applied to the flight data as well as six previous flying qualities studies, and the results indicate that the criterion predicted the flying qualities level 81% of the time and the Cooper-Harper pilot rating, within + or - 1%, 60% of the time.

Flared landing approach flying qualities. Volume 1: Experiment design and analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weingarten, Norman C.; Berthe, Charles J., Jr.; Rynaski, Edmund G.; Sarrafian, Shahan K.

1986-01-01

An inflight research study was conducted utilizing the USAF Total Inflight Simulator (TIFS) to investigate longitudinal flying qualities for the flared landing approach phase of flight. The purpose of the experiment was to generate a consistent set of data for: (1) determining what kind of commanded response the pilot prefers in order to flare and land an airplane with precision, and (2) refining a time history criterion that took into account all the necessary variables and their characteristics that would accurately predict flying qualities. The result of the first part provides guidelines to the flight control system designer, using MIL-F-8785-(C) as a guide, that yield the dynamic behavior pilots perfer in flared landings. The results of the second part provides the flying qualities engineer with a newly derived flying qualities predictive tool which appears to be highly accurate. This time domain predictive flying qualities criterion was applied to the flight data as well as six previous flying qualities studies, and the results indicate that the criterion predicted the flying qualities level 81% of the time and the Cooper-Harper pilot rating, within + or - 1, 60% of the time.