Validation of Kinetic-Turbulent-Neoclassical Theory for Edge Intrinsic Rotation in DIII-D Plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashourvan, Arash

2017-10-01

Recent experiments on DIII-D with low-torque neutral beam injection (NBI) have provided a validation of a new model of momentum generation in a wide range of conditions spanning L- and H-mode with direct ion and electron heating. A challenge in predicting the bulk rotation profile for ITER has been to capture the physics of momentum transport near the separatrix and steep gradient region. A recent theory has presented a model for edge momentum transport which predicts the value and direction of the main-ion intrinsic velocity at the pedestal-top, generated by the passing orbits in the inhomogeneous turbulent field. In this study, this model-predicted velocity is tested on DIII-D for a database of 44 low-torque NBI discharges comprised of bothL- and H-mode plasmas. For moderate NBI powers (PNBI<4 MW), model prediction agrees well with the experiments for both L- and H-mode. At higher NBI power the experimental rotation is observed to saturate and even degrade compared to theory. TRANSP-NUBEAM simulations performed for the database show that for discharges with nominally balanced - but high powered - NBI, the net injected torque through the edge can exceed 1 N.m in the counter-current direction. The theory model has been extended to compute the rotation degradation from this counter-current NBI torque by solving a reduced momentum evolution equation for the edge and found the revised velocity prediction to be in agreement with experiment. Projecting to the ITER baseline scenario, this model predicts a value for the pedestal-top rotation (ρ 0.9) comparable to 4 kRad/s. Using the theory modeled - and now tested - velocity to predict the bulk plasma rotation opens up a path to more confidently projecting the confinement and stability in ITER. Supported by the US DOE under DE-AC02-09CH11466 and DE-FC02-04ER54698.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newman, Jennifer F.; Clifton, Andrew

Currently, cup anemometers on meteorological towers are used to measure wind speeds and turbulence intensity to make decisions about wind turbine class and site suitability; however, as modern turbine hub heights increase and wind energy expands to complex and remote sites, it becomes more difficult and costly to install meteorological towers at potential sites. As a result, remote-sensing devices (e.g., lidars) are now commonly used by wind farm managers and researchers to estimate the flow field at heights spanned by a turbine. Although lidars can accurately estimate mean wind speeds and wind directions, there is still a large amount ofmore » uncertainty surrounding the measurement of turbulence using these devices. Errors in lidar turbulence estimates are caused by a variety of factors, including instrument noise, volume averaging, and variance contamination, in which the magnitude of these factors is highly dependent on measurement height and atmospheric stability. As turbulence has a large impact on wind power production, errors in turbulence measurements will translate into errors in wind power prediction. The impact of using lidars rather than cup anemometers for wind power prediction must be understood if lidars are to be considered a viable alternative to cup anemometers.In this poster, the sensitivity of power prediction error to typical lidar turbulence measurement errors is assessed. Turbulence estimates from a vertically profiling WINDCUBE v2 lidar are compared to high-resolution sonic anemometer measurements at field sites in Oklahoma and Colorado to determine the degree of lidar turbulence error that can be expected under different atmospheric conditions. These errors are then incorporated into a power prediction model to estimate the sensitivity of power prediction error to turbulence measurement error. Power prediction models, including the standard binning method and a random forest method, were developed using data from the aeroelastic simulator FAST for a 1.5 MW turbine. The impact of lidar turbulence error on the predicted power from these different models is examined to determine the degree of turbulence measurement accuracy needed for accurate power prediction.« less

Two Stochastic Phases of Tick-wise Price Fluctuation and the Price Prediction Generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka-Yamawaki, Mieko; Tokuoka, Seiji

2007-07-01

We report in this paper the existence of two different stochastic phases in the tick-wise price fluctuations. Based on this observation, we improve our old method of developing the evolutional strategy to predict the direction of the tick-wise price movements. We obtain a stable predictive power even in the region where the old method had a difficulty.

Effects of nonverbal behavior on perceptions of a female employee's power bases.

PubMed

Aguinis, H; Henle, C A

2001-08-01

The authors extended a previous examination of the effects of nonverbal behavior on perceptions of a male employee's power bases (H. Aguinis, M. M. Simonsen, & C. A. Pierce, 1998) by examining the effects of nonverbal behavior on perceptions of a female employee's power bases. U.S. undergraduates read vignettes describing a female employee engaging in 3 types of nonverbal behavior (i.e., eye contact, facial expression, body posture) and rated their perceptions of the woman's power bases (i.e., reward, coercive, legitimate, referent, expert, credibility). As predicted, (a) direct eye contact increased perceptions of coercive power, and (b) a relaxed facial expression decreased perceptions of all 6 power bases. Also as predicted, the present results differed markedly from those of Aguinis et al. (1998) regarding a male employee. The authors discuss implications for theory, future research, and the advancement of female employees.

Enhanced charging kinetics of porous electrodes: surface conduction as a short-circuit mechanism.

PubMed

Mirzadeh, Mohammad; Gibou, Frederic; Squires, Todd M

2014-08-29

We use direct numerical simulations of the Poisson-Nernst-Planck equations to study the charging kinetics of porous electrodes and to evaluate the predictive capabilities of effective circuit models, both linear and nonlinear. The classic transmission line theory of de Levie holds for general electrode morphologies, but only at low applied potentials. Charging dynamics are slowed appreciably at high potentials, yet not as significantly as predicted by the nonlinear transmission line model of Biesheuvel and Bazant. We identify surface conduction as a mechanism which can effectively "short circuit" the high-resistance electrolyte in the bulk of the pores, thus accelerating the charging dynamics and boosting power densities. Notably, the boost in power density holds only for electrode morphologies with continuous conducting surfaces in the charging direction.

Prediction and measurement of the electromagnetic environment of high-power medium-wave and short-wave broadcast antennas in far field.

PubMed

Tang, Zhanghong; Wang, Qun; Ji, Zhijiang; Shi, Meiwu; Hou, Guoyan; Tan, Danjun; Wang, Pengqi; Qiu, Xianbo

2014-12-01

With the increasing city size, high-power electromagnetic radiation devices such as high-power medium-wave (MW) and short-wave (SW) antennas have been inevitably getting closer and closer to buildings, which resulted in the pollution of indoor electromagnetic radiation becoming worsened. To avoid such radiation exceeding the exposure limits by national standards, it is necessary to predict and survey the electromagnetic radiation by MW and SW antennas before constructing the buildings. In this paper, a modified prediction method for the far-field electromagnetic radiation is proposed and successfully applied to predict the electromagnetic environment of an area close to a group of typical high-power MW and SW wave antennas. Different from currently used simplified prediction method defined in the Radiation Protection Management Guidelines (H J/T 10. 3-1996), the new method in this article makes use of more information such as antennas' patterns to predict the electromagnetic environment. Therefore, it improves the prediction accuracy significantly by the new feature of resolution at different directions. At the end of this article, a comparison between the prediction data and the measured results is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed new method. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Short time ahead wind power production forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapronova, Alla; Meissner, Catherine; Mana, Matteo

2016-09-01

An accurate prediction of wind power output is crucial for efficient coordination of cooperative energy production from different sources. Long-time ahead prediction (from 6 to 24 hours) of wind power for onshore parks can be achieved by using a coupled model that would bridge the mesoscale weather prediction data and computational fluid dynamics. When a forecast for shorter time horizon (less than one hour ahead) is anticipated, an accuracy of a predictive model that utilizes hourly weather data is decreasing. That is because the higher frequency fluctuations of the wind speed are lost when data is averaged over an hour. Since the wind speed can vary up to 50% in magnitude over a period of 5 minutes, the higher frequency variations of wind speed and direction have to be taken into account for an accurate short-term ahead energy production forecast. In this work a new model for wind power production forecast 5- to 30-minutes ahead is presented. The model is based on machine learning techniques and categorization approach and using the historical park production time series and hourly numerical weather forecast.

Noise radiation characteristics of the Westinghouse WWG-0600 (600kW) wind turbine generator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, Kevin P.; Hubbard, Harvey H.

1989-01-01

Acoustic data are presented from five different WWG-0600 machines for the wind speed range 6.7 to 13.4 m/s, for a power output range of 51 to 600 kW and for upwind, downwind and crosswind locations. Both broadband and narrowband data are presented and are compared with calculations and with similar data from other machines. Predicted broadband spectra are in good agreement with measurements at high power and underestimate them at low power. Discrete frequency rotational noise components are present in all measurements and are believed due to terrain induced wind gradients. Predictions are in general agreement with measurements upwind and downwind but underestimate them in the crosswind direction.

Space Station Freedom electrical performance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hojnicki, Jeffrey S.; Green, Robert D.; Kerslake, Thomas W.; Mckissock, David B.; Trudell, Jeffrey J.

1993-01-01

The baseline Space Station Freedom electric power system (EPS) employs photovoltaic (PV) arrays and nickel hydrogen (NiH2) batteries to supply power to housekeeping and user electrical loads via a direct current (dc) distribution system. The EPS was originally designed for an operating life of 30 years through orbital replacement of components. As the design and development of the EPS continues, accurate EPS performance predictions are needed to assess design options, operating scenarios, and resource allocations. To meet these needs, NASA Lewis Research Center (LeRC) has, over a 10 year period, developed SPACE (Station Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation), a computer code designed to predict EPS performance. This paper describes SPACE, its functionality, and its capabilities.

Performance of an inverted pendulum model directly applied to normal human gait.

PubMed

Buczek, Frank L; Cooney, Kevin M; Walker, Matthew R; Rainbow, Michael J; Concha, M Cecilia; Sanders, James O

2006-03-01

In clinical gait analysis, we strive to understand contributions to body support and propulsion as this forms a basis for treatment selection, yet the relative importance of gravitational forces and joint powers can be controversial even for normal gait. We hypothesized that an inverted pendulum model, propelled only by gravity, would be inadequate to predict velocities and ground reaction forces during gait. Unlike previous ballistic and passive dynamic walking studies, we directly compared model predictions to gait data for 24 normal children. We defined an inverted pendulum from the average center-of-pressure to the instantaneous center-of-mass, and derived equations of motion during single support that allowed a telescoping action. Forward and inverse dynamics predicted pendulum velocities and ground reaction forces, and these were statistically and graphically compared to actual gait data for identical strides. Results of forward dynamics replicated those in the literature, with reasonable predictions for velocities and anterior ground reaction forces, but poor predictions for vertical ground reaction forces. Deviations from actual values were explained by joint powers calculated for these subjects. With a telescoping action during inverse dynamics, predicted vertical forces improved dramatically and gained a dual-peak pattern previously missing in the literature, yet expected for normal gait. These improvements vanished when telescoping terms were set to zero. Because this telescoping action is difficult to explain without muscle activity, we believe these results support the need for both gravitational forces and joint powers in normal gait. Our approach also begins to quantify the relative contributions of each.

Perceived parental behaviour, self-esteem and happiness.

PubMed

Furnham, A; Cheng, H

2000-10-01

This study set out to determine to what extent recalled parental rearing styles (authoritarian, authoritativeness, permissiveness), personality (extraversion, neuroticism, psychoticism, lie), and self-esteem predicted self-rated happiness in a normal, nonclinical, population of young people in their late teens and early 20s. Each participant completed a few questionnaires: the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (revised), the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, the Parental Authority Questionnaire and the Oxford Happiness Inventory. It was predicted that sex, extraversion, neuroticism, self-esteem and both maternal and paternal authoritativeness would be significant predictors of happiness. Regressional and path analysis showed self-esteem to be the most dominant and powerful predictor of happiness. The effect of sex on happiness was moderated by neuroticism, which related to self-esteem, which directly influenced happiness. Stability, extraversion and maternal authoritativeness were significant predictors of self-esteem accounting for one-third of the variance. The results are considered in terms of the distinct literature on the relation between personality and happiness and on the relation between parental styles and self-esteem. Self-esteem was both a direct and a moderator variable for young people's self-reported happiness. Extraversion had both direct and indirect predictive power of happiness, whereas neuroticism predicted happiness mediating through self-esteem. Maternal authoritativeness was the only direct predictor of happiness when paternal and maternal rearing styles were examined together, suggesting that a reasonable discipline exercised by mothers towards their children was particularly beneficial in enhancing the offsprings' self-esteem.

Prediction of apparent extinction for optical transmission through rain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasseur, H.; Gibbins, C. J.

1996-12-01

At optical wavelengths, geometrical optics holds that the extinction efficiency of raindrops is equal to two. This approximation yields a wavelength-independent extinction coefficient that, however, can hardly be used to predict accurately rain extinction measured in optical transmissions. Actually, in addition to the extinct direct incoming light, a significant part of the power scattered by the rain particles reaches the receiver. This leads to a reduced apparent extinction that depends on both rain characteristics and link parameters. A simple method is proposed to evaluate this apparent extinction. It accounts for the additional scattered power that enters the receiver when one considers the forward-scattering pattern of the raindrops as well as the multiple-scattering effects using, respectively, the Fraunhofer diffraction and Twersky theory. It results in a direct analytical formula that enables a quick and accurate estimation of the rain apparent extinction and highlights the influence of the link parameters. Predictions of apparent extinction through rain are found in excellent agreement with measurements in the visible and IR regions.

Effect of Voltage Level on Power System Design for Solar Electric Propulsion Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerslake, Thomas W.

2003-01-01

This paper presents study results quantifying the benefits of higher voltage, electric power system designs for a typical solar electric propulsion spacecraft Earth orbiting mission. A conceptual power system architecture was defined and design points were generated for system voltages of 28-V, 50-V, 120-V, and 300-V using state-of-the-art or advanced technologies. A 300-V 'direct-drive' architecture was also analyzed to assess the benefits of directly powering the electric thruster from the photovoltaic array without up-conversion. Fortran and spreadsheet computational models were exercised to predict the performance and size power system components to meet spacecraft mission requirements. Pertinent space environments, such as electron and proton radiation, were calculated along the spiral trajectory. In addition, a simplified electron current collection model was developed to estimate photovoltaic array losses for the orbital plasma environment and that created by the thruster plume. The secondary benefits of power system mass savings for spacecraft propulsion and attitude control systems were also quantified. Results indicate that considerable spacecraft wet mass savings were achieved by the 300-V and 300-V direct-drive architectures.

Critical analysis of 3-D organoid in vitro cell culture models for high-throughput drug candidate toxicity assessments.

PubMed

Astashkina, Anna; Grainger, David W

2014-04-01

Drug failure due to toxicity indicators remains among the primary reasons for staggering drug attrition rates during clinical studies and post-marketing surveillance. Broader validation and use of next-generation 3-D improved cell culture models are expected to improve predictive power and effectiveness of drug toxicological predictions. However, after decades of promising research significant gaps remain in our collective ability to extract quality human toxicity information from in vitro data using 3-D cell and tissue models. Issues, challenges and future directions for the field to improve drug assay predictive power and reliability of 3-D models are reviewed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Role of Atmospheric Measurements in Wind Power Statistical Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wharton, S.; Bulaevskaya, V.; Irons, Z.; Newman, J. F.; Clifton, A.

2015-12-01

The simplest wind power generation curves model power only as a function of the wind speed at turbine hub-height. While the latter is an essential predictor of power output, it is widely accepted that wind speed information in other parts of the vertical profile, as well as additional atmospheric variables including atmospheric stability, wind veer, and hub-height turbulence are also important factors. The goal of this work is to determine the gain in predictive ability afforded by adding additional atmospheric measurements to the power prediction model. In particular, we are interested in quantifying any gain in predictive ability afforded by measurements taken from a laser detection and ranging (lidar) instrument, as lidar provides high spatial and temporal resolution measurements of wind speed and direction at 10 or more levels throughout the rotor-disk and at heights well above. Co-located lidar and meteorological tower data as well as SCADA power data from a wind farm in Northern Oklahoma will be used to train a set of statistical models. In practice, most wind farms continue to rely on atmospheric measurements taken from less expensive, in situ instruments mounted on meteorological towers to assess turbine power response to a changing atmospheric environment. Here, we compare a large suite of atmospheric variables derived from tower measurements to those taken from lidar to determine if remote sensing devices add any competitive advantage over tower measurements alone to predict turbine power response.

Statistical analysis of quiet stance sway in 2-D

PubMed Central

DiZio, Paul; Lackner, James R.

2014-01-01

Subjects exposed to a rotating environment that perturbs their postural sway show adaptive changes in their voluntary spatially directed postural motion to restore accurate movement paths but do not exhibit any obvious learning during passive stance. We have found, however, that a variable known to characterize the degree of stochasticity in quiet stance can also reveal subtle learning phenomena in passive stance. We extended Chow and Collins (Phys Rev E 52(1):909–912, 1995) one-dimensional pinned-polymer model (PPM) to two dimensions (2-D) and then evaluated the model’s ability to make analytical predictions for 2-D quiet stance. To test the model, we tracked center of mass and centers of foot pressures, and compared and contrasted stance sway for the anterior–posterior versus medio-lateral directions before, during, and after exposure to rotation at 10 rpm. Sway of the body during rotation generated Coriolis forces that acted perpendicular to the direction of sway. We found significant adaptive changes for three characteristic features of the mean square displacement (MSD) function: the exponent of the power law defined at short time scales, the proportionality constant of the power law, and the saturation plateau value defined at longer time scales. The exponent of the power law of MSD at a short time scale lies within the bounds predicted by the 2-D PPM. The change in MSD during exposure to rotation also had a power-law exponent in the range predicted by the theoretical model. We discuss the Coriolis force paradigm for studying postural and movement control and the applicability of the PPM model in 2-D for studying postural adaptation. PMID:24477760

Two-dimensional simulation of a two-phase, regenerative pumped radiator loop utilizing direct contact heat transfer with phase change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhee, Hyop S.; Begg, Lester L.; Wetch, Joseph R.; Jang, Jong H.; Juhasz, Albert J.

An innovative pumped loop concept for 600 K space power system radiators utilizing direct contact heat transfer, which facilitates repeated startup/shutdown of the power system without complex and time-consuming coolant thawing during power startup, is under development. The heat transfer process with melting/freezing of Li in an NaK flow was studied through two-dimensional time-dependent numerical simulations to characterize and predict the Li/NaK radiator performance during startup (thawing) and shutdown (cold-trapping). Effects of system parameters and the criteria for the plugging domain are presented together with temperature distribution patterns in solid Li and subsequent melting surface profile variations in time.

Aeroacoustics of large wind turbines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hubbard, Harvey H.; Shepherd, Kevin P.

1991-01-01

This paper reviews published information on aerodynamically generated noise from large horizontal axis wind turbines operated for electric power generation. Methods are presented for predicting both the discrete frequency rotational noise components and the broadband noise components, and results are compared with measurements. Refraction effects that result in the formation of high-frequency shadow zones in the upwind direction and channeling effects for the low frequencies in the downwind direction are illustrated. Special topics such as distributed source effects in prediction and the role of building dynamics in perception are also included.

The Shock and Vibration Bulletin. Part 4. Prediction and Experimental Techniques, Isolation and Damping

DTIC Science & Technology

1973-06-01

one in laboratory tests. All components of the hydraulic power supply system, with the exceptions of the pumps and the heat exchanger, are located...servoactuator operated by a hydraulic power supply and a control electronics package mounted inside the cabin. For the seat isolation system, the...compensate for the static load b>ing supported. The actuators are the sole supportl.g link in the vertical direction. Hydraulic Power Supply The

European shags optimize their flight behavior according to wind conditions.

PubMed

Kogure, Yukihisa; Sato, Katsufumi; Watanuki, Yutaka; Wanless, Sarah; Daunt, Francis

2016-02-01

Aerodynamics results in two characteristic speeds of flying birds: the minimum power speed and the maximum range speed. The minimum power speed requires the lowest rate of energy expenditure per unit time to stay airborne and the maximum range speed maximizes air distance traveled per unit of energy consumed. Therefore, if birds aim to minimize the cost of transport under a range of wind conditions, they are predicted to fly at the maximum range speed. Furthermore, take-off is predicted to be strongly affected by wind speed and direction. To investigate the effect of wind conditions on take-off and cruising flight behavior, we equipped 14 European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis with a back-mounted GPS logger to measure position and hence ground speed, and a neck-mounted accelerometer to record wing beat frequency and strength. Local wind conditions were recorded during the deployment period. Shags always took off into the wind regardless of their intended destination and take-off duration was correlated negatively with wind speed. We combined ground speed and direction during the cruising phase with wind speed and direction to estimate air speed and direction. Whilst ground speed was highly variable, air speed was comparatively stable, although it increased significantly during strong head winds, because of stronger wing beats. The increased air speeds in head winds suggest that birds fly at the maximum range speed, not at the minimum power speed. Our study demonstrates that European shags actively adjust their flight behavior to utilize wind power to minimize the costs of take-off and cruising flight. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Power prediction in mobile communication systems using an optimal neural-network structure.

PubMed

Gao, X M; Gao, X Z; Tanskanen, J A; Ovaska, S J

1997-01-01

Presents a novel neural-network-based predictor for received power level prediction in direct sequence code division multiple access (DS/CDMA) systems. The predictor consists of an adaptive linear element (Adaline) followed by a multilayer perceptron (MLP). An important but difficult problem in designing such a cascade predictor is to determine the complexity of the networks. We solve this problem by using the predictive minimum description length (PMDL) principle to select the optimal numbers of input and hidden nodes. This approach results in a predictor with both good noise attenuation and excellent generalization capability. The optimized neural networks are used for predictive filtering of very noisy Rayleigh fading signals with 1.8 GHz carrier frequency. Our results show that the optimal neural predictor can provide smoothed in-phase and quadrature signals with signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) gains of about 12 and 7 dB at the urban mobile speeds of 5 and 50 km/h, respectively. The corresponding power signal SNR gains are about 11 and 5 dB. Therefore, the neural predictor is well suitable for power control applications where ldquodelaylessrdquo noise attenuation and efficient reduction of fast fading are required.

Sixty-five years of the long march in protein secondary structure prediction: the final stretch?

PubMed Central

Yang, Yuedong; Gao, Jianzhao; Wang, Jihua; Heffernan, Rhys; Hanson, Jack; Paliwal, Kuldip; Zhou, Yaoqi

2018-01-01

Abstract Protein secondary structure prediction began in 1951 when Pauling and Corey predicted helical and sheet conformations for protein polypeptide backbone even before the first protein structure was determined. Sixty-five years later, powerful new methods breathe new life into this field. The highest three-state accuracy without relying on structure templates is now at 82–84%, a number unthinkable just a few years ago. These improvements came from increasingly larger databases of protein sequences and structures for training, the use of template secondary structure information and more powerful deep learning techniques. As we are approaching to the theoretical limit of three-state prediction (88–90%), alternative to secondary structure prediction (prediction of backbone torsion angles and Cα-atom-based angles and torsion angles) not only has more room for further improvement but also allows direct prediction of three-dimensional fragment structures with constantly improved accuracy. About 20% of all 40-residue fragments in a database of 1199 non-redundant proteins have <6 Å root-mean-squared distance from the native conformations by SPIDER2. More powerful deep learning methods with improved capability of capturing long-range interactions begin to emerge as the next generation of techniques for secondary structure prediction. The time has come to finish off the final stretch of the long march towards protein secondary structure prediction. PMID:28040746

Lateralization in Alpha-Band Oscillations Predicts the Locus and Spatial Distribution of Attention.

PubMed

Ikkai, Akiko; Dandekar, Sangita; Curtis, Clayton E

2016-01-01

Attending to a task-relevant location changes how neural activity oscillates in the alpha band (8-13Hz) in posterior visual cortical areas. However, a clear understanding of the relationships between top-down attention, changes in alpha oscillations in visual cortex, and attention performance are still poorly understood. Here, we tested the degree to which the posterior alpha power tracked the locus of attention, the distribution of attention, and how well the topography of alpha could predict the locus of attention. We recorded magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data while subjects performed an attention demanding visual discrimination task that dissociated the direction of attention from the direction of a saccade to indicate choice. On some trials, an endogenous cue predicted the target's location, while on others it contained no spatial information. When the target's location was cued, alpha power decreased in sensors over occipital cortex contralateral to the attended visual field. When the cue did not predict the target's location, alpha power again decreased in sensors over occipital cortex, but bilaterally, and increased in sensors over frontal cortex. Thus, the distribution and the topography of alpha reliably indicated the locus of covert attention. Together, these results suggest that alpha synchronization reflects changes in the excitability of populations of neurons whose receptive fields match the locus of attention. This is consistent with the hypothesis that alpha oscillations reflect the neural mechanisms by which top-down control of attention biases information processing and modulate the activity of neurons in visual cortex.

The prediction of the hydrodynamic performance of tidal current turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Y Xiao, B.; Zhou, L. J.; Xiao, Y. X.; Wang, Z. W.

2013-12-01

Nowadays tidal current energy is considered to be one of the most promising alternative green energy resources and tidal current turbines are used for power generation. Prediction of the open water performance around tidal turbines is important for the reason that it can give some advice on installation and array of tidal current turbines. This paper presents numerical computations of tidal current turbines by using a numerical model which is constructed to simulate an isolated turbine. This paper aims at studying the installation of marine current turbine of which the hydro-environmental impacts influence by means of numerical simulation. Such impacts include free-stream velocity magnitude, seabed and inflow direction of velocity. The results of the open water performance prediction show that the power output and efficiency of marine current turbine varies from different marine environments. The velocity distribution should be clearly and the suitable unit installation depth and direction be clearly chosen, which can ensure the most effective strategy for energy capture before installing the marine current turbine. The findings of this paper are expected to be beneficial in developing tidal current turbines and array in the future.

Normative and descriptive accounts of the influence of power and contingency on causal judgement.

PubMed

Perales, José C; Shanks, David R

2003-08-01

The power PC theory (Cheng, 1997) is a normative account of causal inference, which predicts that causal judgements are based on the power p of a potential cause, where p is the cause-effect contingency normalized by the base rate of the effect. In three experiments we demonstrate that both cause-effect contingency and effect base-rate independently affect estimates in causal learning tasks. In Experiment 1, causal strength judgements were directly related to power p in a task in which the effect base-rate was manipulated across two positive and two negative contingency conditions. In Experiments 2 and 3 contingency manipulations affected causal estimates in several situations in which power p was held constant, contrary to the power PC theory's predictions. This latter effect cannot be explained by participants' conflation of reliability and causal strength, as Experiment 3 demonstrated independence of causal judgements and confidence. From a descriptive point of view, the data are compatible with Pearce's (1987) model, as well as with several other judgement rules, but not with the Rescorla-Wagner (Rescorla & Wagner, 1972) or power PC models.

Predicting community composition from pairwise interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedman, Jonathan; Higgins, Logan; Gore, Jeff

The ability to predict the structure of complex, multispecies communities is crucial for understanding the impact of species extinction and invasion on natural communities, as well as for engineering novel, synthetic communities. Communities are often modeled using phenomenological models, such as the classical generalized Lotka-Volterra (gLV) model. While a lot of our intuition comes from such models, their predictive power has rarely been tested experimentally. To directly assess the predictive power of this approach, we constructed synthetic communities comprised of up to 8 soil bacteria. We measured the outcome of competition between all species pairs, and used these measurements to predict the composition of communities composed of more than 2 species. The pairwise competitions resulted in a diverse set of outcomes, including coexistence, exclusion, and bistability, and displayed evidence for both interference and facilitation. Most pair outcomes could be captured by the gLV framework, and the composition of multispecies communities could be predicted for communities composed solely of such pairs. Our results demonstrate the predictive ability and utility of simple phenomenology, which enables accurate predictions in the absence of mechanistic details.

Evaluation of Advanced Stirling Convertor Net Heat Input Correlation Methods Using a Thermal Standard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Briggs, Maxwell; Schifer, Nicholas

2011-01-01

Test hardware used to validate net heat prediction models. Problem: Net Heat Input cannot be measured directly during operation. Net heat input is a key parameter needed in prediction of efficiency for convertor performance. Efficiency = Electrical Power Output (Measured) divided by Net Heat Input (Calculated). Efficiency is used to compare convertor designs and trade technology advantages for mission planning.

The non-linear power spectrum of the Lyman alpha forest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arinyo-i-Prats, Andreu; Miralda-Escudé, Jordi; Viel, Matteo

2015-12-01

The Lyman alpha forest power spectrum has been measured on large scales by the BOSS survey in SDSS-III at z∼ 2.3, has been shown to agree well with linear theory predictions, and has provided the first measurement of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations at this redshift. However, the power at small scales, affected by non-linearities, has not been well examined so far. We present results from a variety of hydrodynamic simulations to predict the redshift space non-linear power spectrum of the Lyα transmission for several models, testing the dependence on resolution and box size. A new fitting formula is introduced to facilitate themore » comparison of our simulation results with observations and other simulations. The non-linear power spectrum has a generic shape determined by a transition scale from linear to non-linear anisotropy, and a Jeans scale below which the power drops rapidly. In addition, we predict the two linear bias factors of the Lyα forest and provide a better physical interpretation of their values and redshift evolution. The dependence of these bias factors and the non-linear power on the amplitude and slope of the primordial fluctuations power spectrum, the temperature-density relation of the intergalactic medium, and the mean Lyα transmission, as well as the redshift evolution, is investigated and discussed in detail. A preliminary comparison to the observations shows that the predicted redshift distortion parameter is in good agreement with the recent determination of Blomqvist et al., but the density bias factor is lower than observed. We make all our results publicly available in the form of tables of the non-linear power spectrum that is directly obtained from all our simulations, and parameters of our fitting formula.« less

Qualitative modeling of silica plasma etching using neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Byungwhan; Kwon, Kwang Ho

2003-01-01

An etching of silica thin film is qualitatively modeled by using a neural network. The process was characterized by a 23 full factorial experiment plus one center point, in which the experimental factors and ranges include 100-800 W radio-frequency source power, 100-400 W bias power and gas flow rate ratio CHF3/CF4. The gas flow rate ratio varied from 0.2 to 5.0. The backpropagation neural network (BPNN) was trained on nine experiments and tested on six experiments, not pertaining to the original training data. The prediction ability of the BPNN was optimized as a function of the training parameters. Prediction errors are 180 Å/min and 1.33, for the etch rate and anisotropy models, respectively. Physical etch mechanisms were estimated from the three-dimensional plots generated from the optimized models. Predicted response surfaces were consistent with experimentally measured etch data. The dc bias was correlated to the etch responses to evaluate its contribution. Both the source power (plasma density) and bias power (ion directionality) strongly affected the etch rate. The source power was the most influential factor for the etch rate. A conflicting effect between the source and bias powers was noticed with respect to the anisotropy. The dc bias played an important role in understanding or separating physical etch mechanisms.

Experimental Results From the Thermal Energy Storage-1 (TES-1) Flight Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacqmin, David

1995-01-01

The Thermal Energy Storage (TES) experiments are designed to provide data to help researchers understand the long-duration microgravity behavior of thermal energy storage fluoride salts that undergo repeated melting and freezing. Such data, which have never been obtained before, have direct application to space-based solar dynamic power systems. These power systems will store solar energy in a thermal energy salt, such as lithium fluoride (LiF) or a eutectic of lithium fluoride/calcium difluoride (LiF-CaF2) (which melts at a lower temperature). The energy will be stored as the latent heat of fusion when the salt is melted by absorbing solar thermal energy. The stored energy will then be extracted during the shade portion of the orbit, enabling the solar dynamic power system to provide constant electrical power over the entire orbit. Analytical computer codes have been developed to predict the performance of a spacebased solar dynamic power system. However, the analytical predictions must be verified experimentally before the analytical results can be used for future space power design applications. Four TES flight experiments will be used to obtain the needed experimental data. This article focuses on the flight results from the first experiment, TES-1, in comparison to the predicted results from the Thermal Energy Storage Simulation (TESSIM) analytical computer code.

A learning curve for solar thermal power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Platzer, Werner J.; Dinter, Frank

2016-05-01

Photovoltaics started its success story by predicting the cost degression depending on cumulated installed capacity. This so-called learning curve was published and used for predictions for PV modules first, then predictions of system cost decrease also were developed. This approach is less sensitive to political decisions and changing market situations than predictions on the time axis. Cost degression due to innovation, use of scaling effects, improved project management, standardised procedures including the search for better sites and optimization of project size are learning effects which can only be utilised when projects are developed. Therefore a presentation of CAPEX versus cumulated installed capacity is proposed in order to show the possible future advancement of the technology to politics and market. However from a wide range of publications on cost for CSP it is difficult to derive a learning curve. A logical cost structure for direct and indirect capital expenditure is needed as the basis for further analysis. Using derived reference cost for typical power plant configurations predictions of future cost have been derived. Only on the basis of that cost structure and the learning curve levelised cost of electricity for solar thermal power plants should be calculated for individual projects with different capacity factors in various locations.

Control and prediction for blackouts caused by frequency collapse in smart grids.

PubMed

Wang, Chengwei; Grebogi, Celso; Baptista, Murilo S

2016-09-01

The electric power system is one of the cornerstones of modern society. One of its most serious malfunctions is the blackout, a catastrophic event that may disrupt a substantial portion of the system, playing havoc to human life and causing great economic losses. Thus, understanding the mechanisms leading to blackouts and creating a reliable and resilient power grid has been a major issue, attracting the attention of scientists, engineers, and stakeholders. In this paper, we study the blackout problem in power grids by considering a practical phase-oscillator model. This model allows one to simultaneously consider different types of power sources (e.g., traditional AC power plants and renewable power sources connected by DC/AC inverters) and different types of loads (e.g., consumers connected to distribution networks and consumers directly connected to power plants). We propose two new control strategies based on our model, one for traditional power grids and another one for smart grids. The control strategies show the efficient function of the fast-response energy storage systems in preventing and predicting blackouts in smart grids. This work provides innovative ideas which help us to build up a robuster and more economic smart power system.

Control and prediction for blackouts caused by frequency collapse in smart grids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chengwei; Grebogi, Celso; Baptista, Murilo S.

2016-09-01

The electric power system is one of the cornerstones of modern society. One of its most serious malfunctions is the blackout, a catastrophic event that may disrupt a substantial portion of the system, playing havoc to human life and causing great economic losses. Thus, understanding the mechanisms leading to blackouts and creating a reliable and resilient power grid has been a major issue, attracting the attention of scientists, engineers, and stakeholders. In this paper, we study the blackout problem in power grids by considering a practical phase-oscillator model. This model allows one to simultaneously consider different types of power sources (e.g., traditional AC power plants and renewable power sources connected by DC/AC inverters) and different types of loads (e.g., consumers connected to distribution networks and consumers directly connected to power plants). We propose two new control strategies based on our model, one for traditional power grids and another one for smart grids. The control strategies show the efficient function of the fast-response energy storage systems in preventing and predicting blackouts in smart grids. This work provides innovative ideas which help us to build up a robuster and more economic smart power system.

Investigation of the Jet Noise Prediction Theory and Application Utilizing the PAO Formulation. [mathematical model for calculating noise radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

Application of the Phillips theory to engineering calculations of rocket and high speed jet noise radiation is reported. Presented are a detailed derivation of the theory, the composition of the numerical scheme, and discussions of the practical problems arising in the application of the present noise prediction method. The present method still contains some empirical elements, yet it provides a unified approach in the prediction of sound power, spectrum, and directivity.

Power-law scaling in Bénard-Marangoni convection at large Prandtl numbers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boeck, Thomas; Thess, André

2001-08-01

Bénard-Marangoni convection at large Prandtl numbers is found to exhibit steady (nonturbulent) behavior in numerical experiments over a very wide range of Marangoni numbers Ma far away from the primary instability threshold. A phenomenological theory, taking into account the different character of thermal boundary layers at the bottom and at the free surface, is developed. It predicts a power-law scaling for the nondimensional velocity (Peclet number) and heat flux (Nusselt number) of the form Pe~Ma2/3, Nu~Ma2/9. This prediction is in good agreement with two-dimensional direct numerical simulations up to Ma=3.2×105.

WHAT PREDICTS A SUCCESSFUL LIFE? A LIFE-COURSE MODEL OF WELL-BEING*

PubMed Central

Layard, Richard; Clark, Andrew E.; Cornaglia, Francesca; Powdthavee, Nattavudh; Vernoit, James

2014-01-01

Policy-makers who care about well-being need a recursive model of how adult life-satisfaction is predicted by childhood influences, acting both directly and (indirectly) through adult circumstances. We estimate such a model using the British Cohort Study (1970). We show that the most powerful childhood predictor of adult life-satisfaction is the child’s emotional health, followed by the child’s conduct. The least powerful predictor is the child’s intellectual development. This may have implications for educational policy. Among adult circumstances, family income accounts for only 0.5% of the variance of life-satisfaction. Mental and physical health are much more important. PMID:25422527

Toward an operant model of power in organizations

PubMed Central

Goltz, Sonia M.

2003-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to suggest that behavior analysis can help to explain social power. In this approach, an individual's potential for influence is thought to be partially a function of his or her access to stimuli that can be used as consequences. This access can occur either through direct authority or indirectly through social networks and exchanges. Social power is also thought to be a function of an individual's skill in delivering the stimuli in ways that will have the most impact on behavior. A number of predictions about power based on an operant approach are offered. PMID:22478398

Environmental Loss Characterization of an Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC-E2) Insulation Package Using a Mock Heater Head

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schifer, Nicholas A.; Briggs, Maxwell H.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. This generator would use two highefficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), developed by Sunpower Inc. and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). As part of ground testing of these ASCs, different operating conditions are used to simulate expected mission conditions. These conditions require achieving a specified electrical power output for a given net heat input. While electrical power output can be precisely quantified, thermal power input to the Stirling cycle cannot be directly measured. In an effort to improve net heat input predictions, the Mock Heater Head was developed with the same relative thermal paths as a convertor using a conducting rod to represent the Stirling cycle and tested to provide a direct comparison to numerical and empirical models used to predict convertor net heat input. The Mock Heater Head also served as the pathfinder for a higher fidelity version of validation test hardware, known as the Thermal Standard. This paper describes how the Mock Heater Head was tested and utilized to validate a process for the Thermal Standard.

Use of Mass- and Area-Dimensional Power Laws for Determining Precipitation Particle Terminal Velocities.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, David L.

1996-06-01

Based on boundary layer theory and a comparison of empirical power laws relating the Reynolds and Best numbers, it was apparent that the primary variables governing a hydrometeor's terminal velocity were its mass, its area projected to the flow, and its maximum dimension. The dependence of terminal velocities on surface roughness appeared secondary, with surface roughness apparently changing significantly only during phase changes (i.e., ice to liquid). In the theoretical analysis, a new, comprehensive expression for the drag force, which is valid for both inertial and viscous-dominated flow, was derived.A hydrometeor's mass and projected area were simply and accurately represented in terms of its maximum dimension by using dimensional power laws. Hydrometeor terminal velocities were calculated by using mass- and area-dimensional power laws to parameterize the Best number, X. Using a theoretical relationship general for all particle types, the Reynolds number, Re, was then calculated from the Best number. Terminal velocities were calculated from Re.Alternatively, four Re-X power-law expressions were extracted from the theoretical Re-X relationship. These expressions collectively describe the terminal velocities of all ice particle types. These were parameterized using mass- and area-dimensional power laws, yielding four theoretically based power-law expressions predicting fall speeds in terms of ice particle maximum dimension. When parameterized for a given ice particle type, the theoretical fall speed power law can be compared directly with empirical fall speed-dimensional power laws in the literature for the appropriate Re range. This provides a means of comparing theory with observations.Terminal velocities predicted by this method were compared with fall speeds given by empirical fall speed expressions for the same ice particle type, which were curve fits to measured fall speeds. Such comparisons were done for nine types of ice particles. Fall speeds predicted by this method differed from those based on measurements by no more than 20%.The features that distinguish this method of determining fall speeds from others are that it does not represent particles as spheroids, it is general for any ice particle shape and size, it is conceptually and mathematically simple, it appears accurate, and it provides for physical insight. This method also allows fall speeds to be determined from aircraft measurements of ice particle mass and projected area, rather than directly measuring fall speeds. This approach may be useful for ice crystals characterizing cirrus clouds, for which direct fall speed measurements are difficult.

Analyses of the most influential factors for vibration monitoring of planetary power transmissions in pellet mills by adaptive neuro-fuzzy technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milovančević, Miloš; Nikolić, Vlastimir; Anđelković, Boban

2017-01-01

Vibration-based structural health monitoring is widely recognized as an attractive strategy for early damage detection in civil structures. Vibration monitoring and prediction is important for any system since it can save many unpredictable behaviors of the system. If the vibration monitoring is properly managed, that can ensure economic and safe operations. Potentials for further improvement of vibration monitoring lie in the improvement of current control strategies. One of the options is the introduction of model predictive control. Multistep ahead predictive models of vibration are a starting point for creating a successful model predictive strategy. For the purpose of this article, predictive models of are created for vibration monitoring of planetary power transmissions in pellet mills. The models were developed using the novel method based on ANFIS (adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system). The aim of this study is to investigate the potential of ANFIS for selecting the most relevant variables for predictive models of vibration monitoring of pellet mills power transmission. The vibration data are collected by PIC (Programmable Interface Controller) microcontrollers. The goal of the predictive vibration monitoring of planetary power transmissions in pellet mills is to indicate deterioration in the vibration of the power transmissions before the actual failure occurs. The ANFIS process for variable selection was implemented in order to detect the predominant variables affecting the prediction of vibration monitoring. It was also used to select the minimal input subset of variables from the initial set of input variables - current and lagged variables (up to 11 steps) of vibration. The obtained results could be used for simplification of predictive methods so as to avoid multiple input variables. It was preferable to used models with less inputs because of overfitting between training and testing data. While the obtained results are promising, further work is required in order to get results that could be directly applied in practice.

Understanding GPU Power. A Survey of Profiling, Modeling, and Simulation Methods

DOE PAGES

Bridges, Robert A.; Imam, Neena; Mintz, Tiffany M.

2016-09-01

Modern graphics processing units (GPUs) have complex architectures that admit exceptional performance and energy efficiency for high throughput applications.Though GPUs consume large amounts of power, their use for high throughput applications facilitate state-of-the-art energy efficiency and performance. Consequently, continued development relies on understanding their power consumption. Our work is a survey of GPU power modeling and profiling methods with increased detail on noteworthy efforts. Moreover, as direct measurement of GPU power is necessary for model evaluation and parameter initiation, internal and external power sensors are discussed. Hardware counters, which are low-level tallies of hardware events, share strong correlation to powermore » use and performance. Statistical correlation between power and performance counters has yielded worthwhile GPU power models, yet the complexity inherent to GPU architectures presents new hurdles for power modeling. Developments and challenges of counter-based GPU power modeling is discussed. Often building on the counter-based models, research efforts for GPU power simulation, which make power predictions from input code and hardware knowledge, provide opportunities for optimization in programming or architectural design. Noteworthy strides in power simulations for GPUs are included along with their performance or functional simulator counterparts when appropriate. Lastly, possible directions for future research are discussed.« less

Understanding GPU Power. A Survey of Profiling, Modeling, and Simulation Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bridges, Robert A.; Imam, Neena; Mintz, Tiffany M.

Modern graphics processing units (GPUs) have complex architectures that admit exceptional performance and energy efficiency for high throughput applications.Though GPUs consume large amounts of power, their use for high throughput applications facilitate state-of-the-art energy efficiency and performance. Consequently, continued development relies on understanding their power consumption. Our work is a survey of GPU power modeling and profiling methods with increased detail on noteworthy efforts. Moreover, as direct measurement of GPU power is necessary for model evaluation and parameter initiation, internal and external power sensors are discussed. Hardware counters, which are low-level tallies of hardware events, share strong correlation to powermore » use and performance. Statistical correlation between power and performance counters has yielded worthwhile GPU power models, yet the complexity inherent to GPU architectures presents new hurdles for power modeling. Developments and challenges of counter-based GPU power modeling is discussed. Often building on the counter-based models, research efforts for GPU power simulation, which make power predictions from input code and hardware knowledge, provide opportunities for optimization in programming or architectural design. Noteworthy strides in power simulations for GPUs are included along with their performance or functional simulator counterparts when appropriate. Lastly, possible directions for future research are discussed.« less

What factors are associated with having an advance directive among older adults who are new to long term care services?

PubMed

Hirschman, Karen B; Abbott, Katherine M; Hanlon, Alexandra L; Prvu Bettger, Janet; Naylor, Mary D

2012-01-01

To explore differences in having an advance directive among older adults newly transitioned to long term services and support (LTSS) settings (ie, nursing homes [NHs]; assisted living facilities [ALFs]; home and community-based services). Cross sectional survey. LTSS in New York and Pennsylvania. Participants were 470 older adults who recently started receiving LTSS. Included in this analyses, N = 442 (ALF: n = 153; NH: n = 145; home and community-based services: n = 144). Interviews consisted of questions about advance directives (living will and health care power of attorney), significant health changes in the 6 months before the start of long term care support services, Mini-Mental State Examination, and basic demographics. Sixty-one percent (270/442) of older adults receiving LTSS reported having either a living will and/or an health care power of attorney. ALF residents reported having an advance directive more frequently than NH residents and older adults receiving LTSS in their own home (living will: χ(2)[2]= 120.9; P < .001; health care power of attorney: χ(2)[2]= 69.1; P < .001). In multivariate logistic regression models, receiving LTSS at an ALF (OR = 5.01; P < .001), being white (OR = 2.87; P < .001), having more than 12 years of education (OR = 2.50; P < .001), and experiencing a significant health change in past 6 months (OR = 1.97; P = .007) were predictive of having a living will. Receiving LTSS at an ALF (OR = 4.16; P < .001), having more than 12 years of education (OR = 1.74, P = .022), and having had a significant change in health in the last 6 months (OR = 1.61; P = .037) were predictive in having an health care power of attorney in this population of LTSS recipients. These data provide insight into advance directives and older adults new to LTSS. Future research is needed to better understand the barriers to completing advance directives before and during enrollment in LTSS as well as to assess advance directive completion changes over time for this population of older adults. Copyright © 2012 American Medical Directors Association, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Imani, Mohammadreza F., E-mail: mohamad.imani@gmail.com; Grbic, Anthony

One of the obstacles preventing wireless power transfer from becoming ubiquitous is their leakage of power: high-amplitude electromagnetic fields that can interfere with other electronic devices, increase health concerns, or hinder power metering. In this paper, we present near-field plates (NFPs) as a novel method to tailor the electromagnetic fields generated by a wireless power transfer system while maintaining high efficiency. NFPs are modulated arrays or surfaces designed to form prescribed near-field patterns. The NFP proposed in this paper consists of an array of loaded loops that are designed to confine the electromagnetic fields of a resonant transmitting loop tomore » the desired direction (receiving loop) while suppressing fields in other directions. The step-by-step design procedure for this device is outlined. Two NFPs are designed and examined in full-wave simulation. Their performance is shown to be in close agreement with the design predictions, thereby verifying the proposed design and operation. A NFP is also fabricated and experimentally shown to form a unidirectional wireless power transfer link with high efficiency.« less

Lateralization in Alpha-Band Oscillations Predicts the Locus and Spatial Distribution of Attention

PubMed Central

Ikkai, Akiko; Dandekar, Sangita; Curtis, Clayton E.

2016-01-01

Attending to a task-relevant location changes how neural activity oscillates in the alpha band (8–13Hz) in posterior visual cortical areas. However, a clear understanding of the relationships between top-down attention, changes in alpha oscillations in visual cortex, and attention performance are still poorly understood. Here, we tested the degree to which the posterior alpha power tracked the locus of attention, the distribution of attention, and how well the topography of alpha could predict the locus of attention. We recorded magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data while subjects performed an attention demanding visual discrimination task that dissociated the direction of attention from the direction of a saccade to indicate choice. On some trials, an endogenous cue predicted the target’s location, while on others it contained no spatial information. When the target’s location was cued, alpha power decreased in sensors over occipital cortex contralateral to the attended visual field. When the cue did not predict the target’s location, alpha power again decreased in sensors over occipital cortex, but bilaterally, and increased in sensors over frontal cortex. Thus, the distribution and the topography of alpha reliably indicated the locus of covert attention. Together, these results suggest that alpha synchronization reflects changes in the excitability of populations of neurons whose receptive fields match the locus of attention. This is consistent with the hypothesis that alpha oscillations reflect the neural mechanisms by which top-down control of attention biases information processing and modulate the activity of neurons in visual cortex. PMID:27144717

Machine learning for the New York City power grid.

PubMed

Rudin, Cynthia; Waltz, David; Anderson, Roger N; Boulanger, Albert; Salleb-Aouissi, Ansaf; Chow, Maggie; Dutta, Haimonti; Gross, Philip N; Huang, Bert; Ierome, Steve; Isaac, Delfina F; Kressner, Arthur; Passonneau, Rebecca J; Radeva, Axinia; Wu, Leon

2012-02-01

Power companies can benefit from the use of knowledge discovery methods and statistical machine learning for preventive maintenance. We introduce a general process for transforming historical electrical grid data into models that aim to predict the risk of failures for components and systems. These models can be used directly by power companies to assist with prioritization of maintenance and repair work. Specialized versions of this process are used to produce 1) feeder failure rankings, 2) cable, joint, terminator, and transformer rankings, 3) feeder Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) estimates, and 4) manhole events vulnerability rankings. The process in its most general form can handle diverse, noisy, sources that are historical (static), semi-real-time, or realtime, incorporates state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms for prioritization (supervised ranking or MTBF), and includes an evaluation of results via cross-validation and blind test. Above and beyond the ranked lists and MTBF estimates are business management interfaces that allow the prediction capability to be integrated directly into corporate planning and decision support; such interfaces rely on several important properties of our general modeling approach: that machine learning features are meaningful to domain experts, that the processing of data is transparent, and that prediction results are accurate enough to support sound decision making. We discuss the challenges in working with historical electrical grid data that were not designed for predictive purposes. The “rawness” of these data contrasts with the accuracy of the statistical models that can be obtained from the process; these models are sufficiently accurate to assist in maintaining New York City’s electrical grid.

Pre-stimulus thalamic theta power predicts human memory formation.

PubMed

Sweeney-Reed, Catherine M; Zaehle, Tino; Voges, Jürgen; Schmitt, Friedhelm C; Buentjen, Lars; Kopitzki, Klaus; Richardson-Klavehn, Alan; Hinrichs, Hermann; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Knight, Robert T; Rugg, Michael D

2016-09-01

Pre-stimulus theta (4-8Hz) power in the hippocampus and neocortex predicts whether a memory for a subsequent event will be formed. Anatomical studies reveal thalamus-hippocampal connectivity, and lesion, neuroimaging, and electrophysiological studies show that memory processing involves the dorsomedial (DMTN) and anterior thalamic nuclei (ATN). The small size and deep location of these nuclei have limited real-time study of their activity, however, and it is unknown whether pre-stimulus theta power predictive of successful memory formation is also found in these subcortical structures. We recorded human electrophysiological data from the DMTN and ATN of 7 patients receiving deep brain stimulation for refractory epilepsy. We found that greater pre-stimulus theta power in the right DMTN was associated with successful memory encoding, predicting both behavioral outcome and post-stimulus correlates of successful memory formation. In particular, significant correlations were observed between right DMTN theta power and both frontal theta and right ATN gamma (32-50Hz) phase alignment, and frontal-ATN theta-gamma cross-frequency coupling. We draw the following primary conclusions. Our results provide direct electrophysiological evidence in humans of a role for the DMTN as well as the ATN in memory formation. Furthermore, prediction of subsequent memory performance by pre-stimulus thalamic oscillations provides evidence that post-stimulus differences in thalamic activity that index successful and unsuccessful encoding reflect brain processes specifically underpinning memory formation. Finally, the findings broaden the understanding of brain states that facilitate memory encoding to include subcortical as well as cortical structures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Forces associated with pneumatic power screwdriver operation: statics and dynamics.

PubMed

Lin, Jia-Hua; Radwin, Robert G; Fronczak, Frank J; Richard, Terry G

2003-10-10

The statics and dynamics of pneumatic power screwdriver operation were investigated in the context of predicting forces acting against the human operator. A static force model is described in the paper, based on tool geometry, mass, orientation in space, feed force, torque build up, and stall torque. Three common power hand tool shapes are considered, including pistol grip, right angle, and in-line. The static model estimates handle force needed to support a power nutrunner when it acts against the tightened fastener with a constant torque. A system of equations for static force and moment equilibrium conditions are established, and the resultant handle force (resolved in orthogonal directions) is calculated in matrix form. A dynamic model is formulated to describe pneumatic motor torque build-up characteristics dependent on threaded fastener joint hardness. Six pneumatic tools were tested to validate the deterministic model. The average torque prediction error was 6.6% (SD = 5.4%) and the average handle force prediction error was 6.7% (SD = 6.4%) for a medium-soft threaded fastener joint. The average torque prediction error was 5.2% (SD = 5.3%) and the average handle force prediction error was 3.6% (SD = 3.2%) for a hard threaded fastener joint. Use of these equations for estimating handle forces based on passive mechanical elements representing the human operator is also described. These models together should be useful for considering tool handle force in the selection and design of power screwdrivers, particularly for minimizing handle forces in the prevention of injuries and work related musculoskeletal disorders.

Prediction of energy balance and utilization for solar electric cars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, K.; Guo, L. M.; Wang, Y. K.; Zafar, M. T.

2017-11-01

Solar irradiation and ambient temperature are characterized by region, season and time-domain, which directly affects the performance of solar energy based car system. In this paper, the model of solar electric cars used was based in Xi’an. Firstly, the meteorological data are modelled to simulate the change of solar irradiation and ambient temperature, and then the temperature change of solar cell is calculated using the thermal equilibrium relation. The above work is based on the driving resistance and solar cell power generation model, which is simulated under the varying radiation conditions in a day. The daily power generation and solar electric car cruise mileage can be predicted by calculating solar cell efficiency and power. The above theoretical approach and research results can be used in the future for solar electric car program design and optimization for the future developments.

A 50-kW Module Power Station of Directly Solar-Pumped Iodine Laser

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, S. H.; Lee, J. H.; Meador, W. E.; Conway, E. J.

1997-01-01

The conceptual design of a 50 kW Directly Solar-Pumped Iodine Laser (DSPIL) module was developed for a space-based power station which transmits its coherent-beam power to users such as the moon, Martian rovers, or other satellites with large (greater than 25 kW) electric power requirements. Integration of multiple modules would provide an amount of power that exceeds the power of a single module by combining and directing the coherent beams to the user's receiver. The model developed for the DSPIL system conservatively predicts the laser output power (50 kW) that appears much less than the laser output (93 kW) obtained from the gain volume ratio extrapolation of experimental data. The difference in laser outputs may be attributed to reflector configurations adopted in both design and experiment. Even though the photon absorption by multiple reflections in experimental cavity setup was more efficient, the maximum secondary absorption amounts to be only 24.7 percent of the primary. However, the gain volume ratio shows 86 percent more power output than theoretical estimation that is roughly 60 percent more than the contribution by the secondary absorption. Such a difference indicates that the theoretical model adopted in the study underestimates the overall performance of the DSPIL. This fact may tolerate more flexible and radical selection of design parameters than used in this design study. The design achieves an overall specific power of approximately 5 W/kg and total mass of 10 metric tons.

Differentiating the effects of status and power: a justice perspective.

PubMed

Blader, Steven L; Chen, Ya-Ru

2012-05-01

Few empirical efforts have been devoted to differentiating status and power, and thus significant questions remain about differences in how status and power impact social encounters. We conducted 5 studies to address this gap. In particular, these studies tested the prediction that status and power would have opposing effects on justice enacted toward others. In the first 3 studies, we directly compared the effects of status and power on people's enactment of distributive (Study 1) and procedural (Studies 2 and 3) justice. In the last 2 studies, we orthogonally manipulated status and power and examined their main and interactive effects on people's enactment of distributive (Study 4) and procedural (Study 5) justice. As predicted, all 5 studies showed consistent evidence that status is positively associated with justice toward others, while power is negatively associated with justice toward others. The effects of power are moderated, however, by an individual's other orientation (Studies 2, 3, 4, and 5), and the effects of status are moderated by an individual's dispositional concern about status (Study 5). Furthermore, Studies 4 and 5 also demonstrated that status and power interact, such that the positive effect of status on justice emerges when power is low and not when power is high, providing further evidence for differential effects between power and status. Theoretical implications for the literatures on status, power, and distributive/procedural justice are discussed.

A statistical framework for genetic association studies of power curves in bird flight

PubMed Central

Lin, Min; Zhao, Wei

2006-01-01

How the power required for bird flight varies as a function of forward speed can be used to predict the flight style and behavioral strategy of a bird for feeding and migration. A U-shaped curve was observed between the power and flight velocity in many birds, which is consistent to the theoretical prediction by aerodynamic models. In this article, we present a general genetic model for fine mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTL) responsible for power curves in a sample of birds drawn from a natural population. This model is developed within the maximum likelihood context, implemented with the EM algorithm for estimating the population genetic parameters of QTL and the simplex algorithm for estimating the QTL genotype-specific parameters of power curves. Using Monte Carlo simulation derived from empirical observations of power curves in the European starling (Sturnus vulgaris), we demonstrate how the underlying QTL for power curves can be detected from molecular markers and how the QTL detected affect the most appropriate flight speeds used to design an optimal migration strategy. The results from our model can be directly integrated into a conceptual framework for understanding flight origin and evolution. PMID:17066123

Using Flow Characteristics in Three-Dimensional Power Doppler Ultrasound Imaging to Predict Complete Responses in Patients Undergoing Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy.

PubMed

Shia, Wei-Chung; Huang, Yu-Len; Wu, Hwa-Koon; Chen, Dar-Ren

2017-05-01

Strategies are needed for the identification of a poor response to treatment and determination of appropriate chemotherapy strategies for patients in the early stages of neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer. We hypothesize that power Doppler ultrasound imaging can provide useful information on predicting response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The solid directional flow of vessels in breast tumors was used as a marker of pathologic complete responses (pCR) in patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Thirty-one breast cancer patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy and had tumors of 2 to 5 cm were recruited. Three-dimensional power Doppler ultrasound with high-definition flow imaging technology was used to acquire the indices of tumor blood flow/volume, and the chemotherapy response prediction was established, followed by support vector machine classification. The accuracy of pCR prediction before the first chemotherapy treatment was 83.87% (area under the ROC curve [AUC] = 0.6957). After the second chemotherapy treatment, the accuracy of was 87.9% (AUC = 0.756). Trend analysis showed that good and poor responders exhibited different trends in vascular flow during chemotherapy. This preliminary study demonstrates the feasibility of using the vascular flow in breast tumors to predict chemotherapeutic efficacy. © 2017 by the American Institute of Ultrasound in Medicine.

Enhancing prediction power of chemometric models through manipulation of the fed spectrophotometric data: A comparative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saad, Ahmed S.; Hamdy, Abdallah M.; Salama, Fathy M.; Abdelkawy, Mohamed

2016-10-01

Effect of data manipulation in preprocessing step proceeding construction of chemometric models was assessed. The same set of UV spectral data was used for construction of PLS and PCR models directly and after mathematically manipulation as per well known first and second derivatives of the absorption spectra, ratio spectra and first and second derivatives of the ratio spectra spectrophotometric methods, meanwhile the optimal working wavelength ranges were carefully selected for each model and the models were constructed. Unexpectedly, number of latent variables used for models' construction varied among the different methods. The prediction power of the different models was compared using a validation set of 8 mixtures prepared as per the multilevel multifactor design and results were statistically compared using two-way ANOVA test. Root mean squares error of prediction (RMSEP) was used for further comparison of the predictability among different constructed models. Although no significant difference was found between results obtained using Partial Least Squares (PLS) and Principal Component Regression (PCR) models, however, discrepancies among results was found to be attributed to the variation in the discrimination power of adopted spectrophotometric methods on spectral data.

Lateral-directional aerodynamic characteristics of light, twin-engine, propeller driven airplanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolowicz, C. H.; Yancey, R. B.

1972-01-01

Analytical procedures and design data for predicting the lateral-directional static and dynamic stability and control characteristics of light, twin engine, propeller driven airplanes for propeller-off and power-on conditions are reported. Although the consideration of power effects is limited to twin engine airplanes, the propeller-off considerations are applicable to single engine airplanes as well. The procedures are applied to a twin engine, propeller driven, semi-low-wing airplane in the clean configuration through the linear lift range. The calculated derivative characteristics are compared with wind tunnel and flight data. Included in the calculated characteristics are the spiral mode, roll mode, and Dutch roll mode over the speed range of the airplane.

Magnetostrictive direct drive motors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naik, Dipak; Dehoff, P. H.

1990-01-01

Developing magnetostrictive direct drive research motors to power robot joints is discussed. These type motors are expected to produce extraordinary torque density, to be able to perform microradian incremental steps and to be self-braking and safe with the power off. Several types of motor designs have been attempted using magnetostrictive materials. One of the candidate approaches (the magnetostrictive roller drive) is described. The method in which the design will function is described as is the reason why this approach is inherently superior to the other approaches. Following this, the design will be modelled and its expected performance predicted. This particular candidate design is currently undergoing detailed engineering with prototype construction and testing scheduled for mid 1991.

System performance predictions for Space Station Freedom's electric power system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerslake, Thomas W.; Hojnicki, Jeffrey S.; Green, Robert D.; Follo, Jeffrey C.

1993-01-01

Space Station Freedom Electric Power System (EPS) capability to effectively deliver power to housekeeping and user loads continues to strongly influence Freedom's design and planned approaches for assembly and operations. The EPS design consists of silicon photovoltaic (PV) arrays, nickel-hydrogen batteries, and direct current power management and distribution hardware and cabling. To properly characterize the inherent EPS design capability, detailed system performance analyses must be performed for early stages as well as for the fully assembled station up to 15 years after beginning of life. Such analyses were repeatedly performed using the FORTRAN code SPACE (Station Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation) developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center over a 10-year period. SPACE combines orbital mechanics routines, station orientation/pointing routines, PV array and battery performance models, and a distribution system load-flow analysis to predict EPS performance. Time-dependent, performance degradation, low earth orbit environmental interactions, and EPS architecture build-up are incorporated in SPACE. Results from two typical SPACE analytical cases are presented: (1) an electric load driven case and (2) a maximum EPS capability case.

Power flow prediction in vibrating systems via model reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xianhui

This dissertation focuses on power flow prediction in vibrating systems. Reduced order models (ROMs) are built based on rational Krylov model reduction which preserve power flow information in the original systems over a specified frequency band. Stiffness and mass matrices of the ROMs are obtained by projecting the original system matrices onto the subspaces spanned by forced responses. A matrix-free algorithm is designed to construct ROMs directly from the power quantities at selected interpolation frequencies. Strategies for parallel implementation of the algorithm via message passing interface are proposed. The quality of ROMs is iteratively refined according to the error estimate based on residual norms. Band capacity is proposed to provide a priori estimate of the sizes of good quality ROMs. Frequency averaging is recast as ensemble averaging and Cauchy distribution is used to simplify the computation. Besides model reduction for deterministic systems, details of constructing ROMs for parametric and nonparametric random systems are also presented. Case studies have been conducted on testbeds from Harwell-Boeing collections. Input and coupling power flow are computed for the original systems and the ROMs. Good agreement is observed in all cases.

Six Degree-of-Freedom Measurements of Human Mild Traumatic Brain Injury.

PubMed

Hernandez, Fidel; Wu, Lyndia C; Yip, Michael C; Laksari, Kaveh; Hoffman, Andrew R; Lopez, Jaime R; Grant, Gerald A; Kleiven, Svein; Camarillo, David B

2015-08-01

This preliminary study investigated whether direct measurement of head rotation improves prediction of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). Although many studies have implicated rotation as a primary cause of mTBI, regulatory safety standards use 3 degree-of-freedom (3DOF) translation-only kinematic criteria to predict injury. Direct 6DOF measurements of human head rotation (3DOF) and translation (3DOF) have not been previously available to examine whether additional DOFs improve injury prediction. We measured head impacts in American football, boxing, and mixed martial arts using 6DOF instrumented mouthguards, and predicted clinician-diagnosed injury using 12 existing kinematic criteria and 6 existing brain finite element (FE) criteria. Among 513 measured impacts were the first two 6DOF measurements of clinically diagnosed mTBI. For this dataset, 6DOF criteria were the most predictive of injury, more than 3DOF translation-only and 3DOF rotation-only criteria. Peak principal strain in the corpus callosum, a 6DOF FE criteria, was the strongest predictor, followed by two criteria that included rotation measurements, peak rotational acceleration magnitude and Head Impact Power (HIP). These results suggest head rotation measurements may improve injury prediction. However, more 6DOF data is needed to confirm this evaluation of existing injury criteria, and to develop new criteria that considers directional sensitivity to injury.

Magnetic field dissipation in D-sheets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burlaga, L. F.; Scudder, J. D.

1973-01-01

The effects of magnetic field annihilation at a tangential or rotational discontinuity in a resistive plasma are examined. The magnetic field intensity profile depends on (1) the field intensities far from the current sheet (+ and - infinity), (2) the angle between the two intensities, and (3) the electrical resistivity. For a tangential discontinuity, the theory predicts a depression in B, centered at the discontinuity, and it predicts a monotonic transition. The theory provides satisfactory fits to the magnetic field intensity and proton temperature profiles observed for two extremely broad D-sheets in the solar wind. Assuming a diffusion time 10 days, one obtains effective resistivities or approximately = 3 x 10 to the 12th power and 2 x 10 to the 13th power emu for the D-sheets. Either resistivity at directional discontinuities is much lower than 10 to the 12th power emu or annihilation does not always occur at discontinuities.

Wind directions predicted from global circulation models and wind directions determined from eolian sandstones of the western United States-A comparison

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrish, Judith T.; Peterson, F.

1988-01-01

Wind directions for Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic time are predicted from global circulation models for the western United States. These predictions are compared with paleowind directions interpreted from eolian sandstones of Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic age. Predicted regional wind directions correspond with at least three-quarters of the paleowind data from the sandstones; the rest of the data may indicate problems with correlation, local effects of paleogeography on winds, and lack of resolution of the circulation models. The data and predictions suggest the following paleoclimatic developments through the time interval studied: predominance of winter subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Late Pennsylvanian; predominance of summer subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Permian; predominance of summer monsoonal circulation in the Triassic and earliest Jurassic; and, during the remainder of the Jurassic, influence of both summer subtropical and summer monsoonal circulation, with the boundary between the two systems over the western United States. This sequence of climatic changes is largely owing to paleogeographic changes, which influenced the buildup and breakdown of the monsoonal circulation, and possibly owing partly to a decrease in the global temperature gradient, which might have lessened the influence of the subtropical high-pressure circulation. The atypical humidity of Triassic time probably resulted from the monsoonal circulation created by the geography of Pangaea. This circulation is predicted to have been at a maximum in the Triassic and was likely to have been powerful enough to draw moisture along the equator from the ocean to the west. ?? 1988.

Fish genome manipulation and directional breeding.

PubMed

Ye, Ding; Zhu, ZuoYan; Sun, YongHua

2015-02-01

Aquaculture is one of the fastest developing agricultural industries worldwide. One of the most important factors for sustainable aquaculture is the development of high performing culture strains. Genome manipulation offers a powerful method to achieve rapid and directional breeding in fish. We review the history of fish breeding methods based on classical genome manipulation, including polyploidy breeding and nuclear transfer. Then, we discuss the advances and applications of fish directional breeding based on transgenic technology and recently developed genome editing technologies. These methods offer increased efficiency, precision and predictability in genetic improvement over traditional methods.

The relationship between blood pressure and the structures of Pender's health promotion model in rural hypertensive patients.

PubMed

Kamran, Aziz; Azadbakht, Leila; Sharifirad, Gholamreza; Mahaki, Behzad; Mohebi, Siamak

2015-01-01

Perception is the most important predictor of behavior and there is a strong relation and correlation between behavior and believes. Thus, to improve self-care behaviors of patients, it is required to fully understand their perceptions about behavior. This paper aimed to assess the prediction power of health promotion model of systolic blood pressure (SBP) as the result of self-care behavior in rural hypertensive. This cross-sectional study has been carried out through random multistage sampling on 671 rural patients under the coverage of health center of Ardebil city in 2013. Data were collected through reliable and valid questionnaire based on the health promotion model in eight sectors. For data analysis, Pearson correlation statistical tests, multivariate linear regression, ANOVA and independent t-test were used and for confirmatory factor analysis, SPSS 18 and AMOS 18 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA) were used. The results showed significant negative correlation between self-efficacy, perceived benefits, situational influences, affects related to behavior and commitment to action structures with SBP and showed a positive significant correlation between perceived barriers and SBP. Furthermore, age and body mass had direct significant relation with SBP. The age of patients showed inverse significant correlation with self-efficacy, perceived benefits, affects related to behavior, interpersonal influences and commitment and showed a direct significant correlation with perceived barriers, means that by increase of age, the perceived barriers also increased. The structures of health promotion model have in overall the prediction power of 71.4% of SBP changes. The diet perceptions of patients, the same as health promotion model, has good predictive power of SBP, especially the structures of perceived benefits and self-efficacy have inverse meaningful relation with systole blood pressure and predicted a higher percentage of this variable.

Exercise dependence and the drive for muscularity in male bodybuilders, power lifters, and fitness lifters.

PubMed

Hale, Bruce D; Roth, Andrew D; DeLong, Ryan E; Briggs, Michael S

2010-06-01

Researchers have hypothesized differences in exercise dependence and drive for muscularity between bodybuilders and power lifters, while others have not found the predicted differences. This study assessed 146 weight lifters (bodybuilders, n=59; power lifters, n=47; fitness lifters, n=40) on the Exercise Dependence Scale, Bodybuilding Dependence Scale, and the Drive for Muscularity Scale. Results showed that bodybuilders and power lifters were significantly higher than fitness lifters on EDS Total, 7 EDS scales, and the 3 BDS scales. In contrast, power lifters were found to be significantly higher on DMS Total and DMS Behavior scales than bodybuilders. The regression results suggest that exercise dependence may be directly related to the drive for muscularity. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Local gravity and large-scale structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Juszkiewicz, Roman; Vittorio, Nicola; Wyse, Rosemary F. G.

1990-01-01

The magnitude and direction of the observed dipole anisotropy of the galaxy distribution can in principle constrain the amount of large-scale power present in the spectrum of primordial density fluctuations. This paper confronts the data, provided by a recent redshift survey of galaxies detected by the IRAS satellite, with the predictions of two cosmological models with very different levels of large-scale power: the biased Cold Dark Matter dominated model (CDM) and a baryon-dominated model (BDM) with isocurvature initial conditions. Model predictions are investigated for the Local Group peculiar velocity, v(R), induced by mass inhomogeneities distributed out to a given radius, R, for R less than about 10,000 km/s. Several convergence measures for v(R) are developed, which can become powerful cosmological tests when deep enough samples become available. For the present data sets, the CDM and BDM predictions are indistinguishable at the 2 sigma level and both are consistent with observations. A promising discriminant between cosmological models is the misalignment angle between v(R) and the apex of the dipole anisotropy of the microwave background.

Supernova Origin of Cosmic Rays from a γ-Ray Signal in the Constellation III Region of the Large Magellanic Cloud.

PubMed

Neronov, Andrii

2017-11-10

Cosmic rays could be produced via shock acceleration powered by supernovae. The supernova hypothesis implies that each supernova injects, on average, some 10^{50}  erg in cosmic rays, while the shock acceleration model predicts a power law cosmic ray spectrum with the slope close to 2. Verification of these predictions requires measurement of the spectrum and power of cosmic ray injection from supernova population(s). Here, we obtain such measurements based on γ-ray observation of the Constellation III region of the Large Magellanic Cloud. We show that γ-ray emission from this young star formation region originates from cosmic rays injected by approximately two thousand supernovae, rather than by a massive star wind powered by a superbubble predating supernova activity. Cosmic ray injection power is found to be (1.1_{-0.2}^{+0.5})×10^{50}  erg/supernova (for the estimated interstellar medium density 0.3  cm^{-3}). The spectrum is a power law with slope 2.09_{-0.07}^{+0.06}. This agrees with the model of particle acceleration at supernova shocks and provides a direct proof of the supernova origin of cosmic rays.

Authenticity and Relationship Satisfaction: Two Distinct Ways of Directing Power to Self-Esteem.

PubMed

Wang, Yi Nan

2015-01-01

Possessing power contributes to high self-esteem, but how power enhances self-esteem is still unknown. As power is associated with both self-oriented goals and social-responsibility goals, we proposed that power predicts self-esteem through two positive personal and interpersonal results: authenticity and relationship satisfaction. Three studies were carried out with a total of 505 Chinese participants, including college students and adults, who completed surveys that assessed personal power, self-esteem, authenticity, relationship satisfaction, communal orientation, and social desirability. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses demonstrated that power, authenticity, and relationship satisfaction each uniquely contributed to self-esteem. More importantly, multiple mediation analysis showed that authenticity and relationship satisfaction both mediated the effects of power on self-esteem, even when controlling for participants' communal orientation and social desirability. Our findings demonstrate that authenticity and relationship satisfaction represent two key mechanisms by which power is associated with self-esteem.

Authenticity and Relationship Satisfaction: Two Distinct Ways of Directing Power to Self-Esteem

PubMed Central

Wang, Yi Nan

2015-01-01

Possessing power contributes to high self-esteem, but how power enhances self-esteem is still unknown. As power is associated with both self-oriented goals and social-responsibility goals, we proposed that power predicts self-esteem through two positive personal and interpersonal results: authenticity and relationship satisfaction. Three studies were carried out with a total of 505 Chinese participants, including college students and adults, who completed surveys that assessed personal power, self-esteem, authenticity, relationship satisfaction, communal orientation, and social desirability. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses demonstrated that power, authenticity, and relationship satisfaction each uniquely contributed to self-esteem. More importantly, multiple mediation analysis showed that authenticity and relationship satisfaction both mediated the effects of power on self-esteem, even when controlling for participants’ communal orientation and social desirability. Our findings demonstrate that authenticity and relationship satisfaction represent two key mechanisms by which power is associated with self-esteem. PMID:26720814

Prediction of flyover jet noise spectra from static tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, U.; Michalke, A.

A scaling law for predicting the overall flyover noise of a single stream shock-free circular jet from static experiments is outlined. It is valid for isothermal and hot jets. It assumes that the jet flow and turbulence field are axially stretched in flight. Effects of the boundary layer within the nozzle and along the engine nacelle are neglected. The scaling laws for the power spectral density and spectra with constant relative bandwidth can be derived. In order to compare static and inflight directivities, the far field point relative to the source position must be denoted by the emission angle and the wave normal distance. From the solution of the convective Lighthill equation in a coordinate system fixed to the jet nozzle (wind tunnel case), the power spectral density of sound pressure at a given frequency is found. Predictions for Aerotrain compare well with measured values.

Electron cyclotron heating and core intrinsic rotation reversal in DIII-D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grassie, J. S. de, E-mail: degrassie@fusion.gat.com; Boedo, J. A.; Grierson, B. A.

2015-12-10

The effect of electron cyclotron heating (ECH) on the intrinsic rotation profile in DIII-D is shown experimentally. Former DIII-D experiments have shown that ECH tends to cause an interior reduction in the normally co-Ip directed intrinsic rotation profile, and this core rotation can be fully reversed to the opposite direction. This effect is due to a turbulent rearrangement of the interior rotation profile. Here, we show results that there is more than one mechanism causing this. We compare two low density L-mode discharges where the only operational difference is the location of the ECH deposition. At low ECH power, comparablemore » to the Ohmic power, the primary change is in the q-profile accompanied by a reversal of the core intrinsic rotation direction for the more off-axis deposition. The change in the shear of the q-profile fits well with a recent theoretical prediction for this rotation reversal. At higher ECH power, the primary change is in the core electron temperature, Te, accompanied by a hollowing of the rotation profile near the magnetic axis. This effect appears to be due to the change in electron collisionality, consistent with another theoretical, gyrokinetic prediction. The variety of phenomena that could allow ECH to modify the intrinsic rotation profile give some expectation that regions of large velocity shear in the interior could be generated, with the possibility of triggering internal transport barriers.« less

Predicting the stochastic guiding of kinesin-driven microtubules in microfabricated tracks: a statistical-mechanics-based modeling approach.

PubMed

Lin, Chih-Tin; Meyhofer, Edgar; Kurabayashi, Katsuo

2010-01-01

Directional control of microtubule shuttles via microfabricated tracks is key to the development of controlled nanoscale mass transport by kinesin motor molecules. Here we develop and test a model to quantitatively predict the stochastic behavior of microtubule guiding when they mechanically collide with the sidewalls of lithographically patterned tracks. By taking into account appropriate probability distributions of microscopic states of the microtubule system, the model allows us to theoretically analyze the roles of collision conditions and kinesin surface densities in determining how the motion of microtubule shuttles is controlled. In addition, we experimentally observe the statistics of microtubule collision events and compare our theoretical prediction with experimental data to validate our model. The model will direct the design of future hybrid nanotechnology devices that integrate nanoscale transport systems powered by kinesin-driven molecular shuttles.

The application of parameter estimation to flight measurements to obtain lateral-directional stability derivatives of an augmented jet-flap STOL airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephenson, J. D.

1983-01-01

Flight experiments with an augmented jet flap STOL aircraft provided data from which the lateral directional stability and control derivatives were calculated by applying a linear regression parameter estimation procedure. The tests, which were conducted with the jet flaps set at a 65 deg deflection, covered a large range of angles of attack and engine power settings. The effect of changing the angle of the jet thrust vector was also investigated. Test results are compared with stability derivatives that had been predicted. The roll damping derived from the tests was significantly larger than had been predicted, whereas the other derivatives were generally in agreement with the predictions. Results obtained using a maximum likelihood estimation procedure are compared with those from the linear regression solutions.

Acid-Catalyzed Enolization of [beta]-Tetralone

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dewprashad, Brahmadeo; Nesturi, Anthony; Urena, Joel

2008-01-01

This experiment allows students to use [to the first power]H NMR to directly compare the relative initial rates of substitution of the benzylic and non-benzylic [alpha] hydrogens of [beta]-tetralone and correlate their findings with the predictions made by resonance theory. The experiment demonstrates that the benzylic hydrogens undergo [alpha]…

Baseline Brain Activity Predicts Response to Neuromodulatory Pain Treatment

PubMed Central

Jensen, Mark P.; Sherlin, Leslie H.; Fregni, Felipe; Gianas, Ann; Howe, Jon D.; Hakimian, Shahin

2015-01-01

Objectives The objective of this study was to examine the associations between baseline electroencephalogram (EEG)-assessed brain oscillations and subsequent response to four neuromodulatory treatments. Based on available research, we hypothesized that baseline theta oscillations would prospectively predict response to hypnotic analgesia. Analyses involving other oscillations and the other treatments (meditation, neurofeedback, and both active and sham transcranial direct current stimulation) were viewed as exploratory, given the lack of previous research examining brain oscillations as predictors of response to these other treatments. Design Randomized controlled study of single sessions of four neuromodulatory pain treatments and a control procedure. Methods Thirty individuals with spinal cord injury and chronic pain had their EEG recorded before each session of four active treatments (hypnosis, meditation, EEG biofeedback, transcranial direct current stimulation) and a control procedure (sham transcranial direct stimulation). Results As hypothesized, more presession theta power was associated with greater response to hypnotic analgesia. In exploratory analyses, we found that less baseline alpha power predicted pain reduction with meditation. Conclusions The findings support the idea that different patients respond to different pain treatments and that between-person treatment response differences are related to brain states as measured by EEG. The results have implications for the possibility of enhancing pain treatment response by either 1) better patient/treatment matching or 2) influencing brain activity before treatment is initiated in order to prepare patients to respond. Research is needed to replicate and confirm the findings in additional samples of individuals with chronic pain. PMID:25287554

A summary of wind power prediction methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuqi

2018-06-01

The deterministic prediction of wind power, the probability prediction and the prediction of wind power ramp events are introduced in this paper. Deterministic prediction includes the prediction of statistical learning based on histor ical data and the prediction of physical models based on NWP data. Due to the great impact of wind power ramp events on the power system, this paper also introduces the prediction of wind power ramp events. At last, the evaluation indicators of all kinds of prediction are given. The prediction of wind power can be a good solution to the adverse effects of wind power on the power system due to the abrupt, intermittent and undulation of wind power.

Integrated digital/electric aircraft concepts study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cronin, M. J.; Hays, A. P.; Green, F. B.; Radovcich, N. A.; Helsley, C. W.; Rutchik, W. L.

1985-01-01

The integrated digital/electrical aircraft (IDEA) is an aircraft concept which employs all electric secondary power systems and advanced digital flight control systems. After trade analysis, preferred systems were applied to the baseline configuration. An additional configuration, the alternate IDEA, was also considered. For this concept the design ground rules were relaxed in order to quantify additional synergistic benefits. It was proposed that an IDEA configuration and technical risks associated with the IDEA systems concepts be defined and the research and development required activities to reduce these risks be identified. The selected subsystems include: power generation, power distribution, actuators, environmental control system and flight controls systems. When the aircraft was resized, block fuel was predicted to decrease by 11.3 percent, with 7.9 percent decrease in direct operating cost. The alternate IDEA shows a further 3.4 percent reduction in block fuel and 3.1 percent reduction in direct operating cost.

The correlation between the total magnetic flux and the total jet power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nokhrina, Elena E.

2017-12-01

Magnetic field threading a black hole ergosphere is believed to play the key role in both driving the powerful relativistic jets observed in active galactic nuclei and extracting the rotational energy from a black hole via Blandford-Znajek process. The magnitude of magnetic field and the magnetic flux in the vicinity of a central black hole is predicted by theoretical models. On the other hand, the magnetic field in a jet can be estimated through measurements of either the core shift effect or the brightness temperature. In both cases the obtained magnetic field is in the radiating domain, so its direct application to the calculation of the magnetic flux needs some theoretical assumptions. In this paper we address the issue of estimating the magnetic flux contained in a jet using the measurements of a core shift effect and of a brightness temperature for the jets, directed almost at the observer. The accurate account for the jet transversal structure allow us to express the magnetic flux through the observed values and an unknown rotation rate of magnetic surfaces. If we assume the sources are in a magnetically arrested disk state, the lower limit for the rotation rate can be obtained. On the other hand, the flux estimate may be tested against the total jet power predicted by the electromagnetic energy extraction model. The resultant expression for power depends logarithmically weakly on an unknown rotation rate. We show that the total jet power estimated through the magnetic flux is in good agreement with the observed power. We also obtain the extremely slow rotation rates, which may be an indication that the majority of the sources considered are not in the magnetically arrested disk state.

High-resolution vertical profiles of groundwater electrical conductivity (EC) and chloride from direct-push EC logs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bourke, Sarah A.; Hermann, Kristian J.; Hendry, M. Jim

2017-11-01

Elevated groundwater salinity associated with produced water, leaching from landfills or secondary salinity can degrade arable soils and potable water resources. Direct-push electrical conductivity (EC) profiling enables rapid, relatively inexpensive, high-resolution in-situ measurements of subsurface salinity, without requiring core collection or installation of groundwater wells. However, because the direct-push tool measures the bulk EC of both solid and liquid phases (ECa), incorporation of ECa data into regional or historical groundwater data sets requires the prediction of pore water EC (ECw) or chloride (Cl-) concentrations from measured ECa. Statistical linear regression and physically based models for predicting ECw and Cl- from ECa profiles were tested on a brine plume in central Saskatchewan, Canada. A linear relationship between ECa/ECw and porosity was more accurate for predicting ECw and Cl- concentrations than a power-law relationship (Archie's Law). Despite clay contents of up to 96%, the addition of terms to account for electrical conductance in the solid phase did not improve model predictions. In the absence of porosity data, statistical linear regression models adequately predicted ECw and Cl- concentrations from direct-push ECa profiles (ECw = 5.48 ECa + 0.78, R 2 = 0.87; Cl- = 1,978 ECa - 1,398, R 2 = 0.73). These statistical models can be used to predict ECw in the absence of lithologic data and will be particularly useful for initial site assessments. The more accurate linear physically based model can be used to predict ECw and Cl- as porosity data become available and the site-specific ECw-Cl- relationship is determined.

Proactive monitoring of a wind turbine array with lidar measurements, SCADA data and a data-driven RANS solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iungo, G.; Said, E. A.; Santhanagopalan, V.; Zhan, L.

2016-12-01

Power production of a wind farm and durability of wind turbines are strongly dependent on non-linear wake interactions occurring within a turbine array. Wake dynamics are highly affected by the specific site conditions, such as topography and local atmospheric conditions. Furthermore, contingencies through the life of a wind farm, such as turbine ageing and off-design operations, make prediction of wake interactions and power performance a great challenge in wind energy. In this work, operations of an onshore wind turbine array were monitored through lidar measurements, SCADA and met-tower data. The atmospheric wind field investing the wind farm was estimated by using synergistically the available data through five different methods, which are characterized by different confidence levels. By combining SCADA data and the lidar measurements, it was possible to estimate power losses connected with wake interactions. For this specific array, power losses were estimated to be 4% and 2% of the total power production for stable and convective atmospheric regimes, respectively. The entire dataset was then leveraged for the calibration of a data-driven RANS (DDRANS) solver for prediction of wind turbine wakes and power production. The DDRANS is based on a parabolic formulation of the Navier-Stokes equations with axisymmetry and boundary layer approximations, which allow achieving very low computational costs. Accuracy in prediction of wind turbine wakes and power production is achieved through an optimal tuning of the turbulence closure model. The latter is based on a mixing length model, which was developed based on previous wind turbine wake studies carried out through large eddy simulations and wind tunnel experiments. Several operative conditions of the wind farm under examination were reproduced through DDRANS for different stability regimes, wind directions and wind velocity. The results show that DDRANS is capable of achieving a good level of accuracy in prediction of power production and wake velocity field associated with the turbine array.

Flipping the switch: power, social dominance, and expectancies of mental energy change.

PubMed

Egan, Patrick M; Hirt, Edward R

2015-03-01

Research suggests that high levels of interpersonal power can promote enhanced executive functioning capabilities. The present work explored whether this effect is contingent upon expectancies concerning power's downstream cognitive consequences. Study 1 showed that social dominance orientation (SDO) predicted idiosyncratic expectancies of mental energy change toward interpersonal power. Study 2 showed that SDO moderated the executive functioning changes associated with interpersonal power and that this moderation effect was contingent upon changes in perceived mental depletion. Study 3 showed that directly manipulating expectancies of mental energy change concerning interpersonal power moderated the executive functioning consequences of power and that this moderation effect was contingent upon SDO and changes in perceived mental depletion. Together, the present findings underscore the importance of expectancies and individual differences in understanding the effects of interpersonal power. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Examination of CRISPR/Cas9 design tools and the effect of target site accessibility on Cas9 activity.

PubMed

Lee, Ciaran M; Davis, Timothy H; Bao, Gang

2018-04-01

What is the topic of this review? In this review, we analyse the performance of recently described tools for CRISPR/Cas9 guide RNA design, in particular, design tools that predict CRISPR/Cas9 activity. What advances does it highlight? Recently, many tools designed to predict CRISPR/Cas9 activity have been reported. However, the majority of these tools lack experimental validation. Our analyses indicate that these tools have poor predictive power. Our preliminary results suggest that target site accessibility should be considered in order to develop better guide RNA design tools with improved predictive power. The recent adaptation of the clustered regulatory interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)/CRISPR-associated protein 9 (Cas9) system for targeted genome engineering has led to its widespread application in many fields worldwide. In order to gain a better understanding of the design rules of CRISPR/Cas9 systems, several groups have carried out large library-based screens leading to some insight into sequence preferences among highly active target sites. To facilitate CRISPR/Cas9 design, these studies have spawned a plethora of guide RNA (gRNA) design tools with algorithms based solely on direct or indirect sequence features. Here, we demonstrate that the predictive power of these tools is poor, suggesting that sequence features alone cannot accurately inform the cutting efficiency of a particular CRISPR/Cas9 gRNA design. Furthermore, we demonstrate that DNA target site accessibility influences the activity of CRISPR/Cas9. With further optimization, we hypothesize that it will be possible to increase the predictive power of gRNA design tools by including both sequence and target site accessibility metrics. © 2017 The Authors. Experimental Physiology © 2017 The Physiological Society.

Near real time wind energy forecasting incorporating wind tunnel modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubitz, William David

A series of experiments and investigations were carried out to inform the development of a day-ahead wind power forecasting system. An experimental near-real time wind power forecasting system was designed and constructed that operates on a desktop PC and forecasts 12--48 hours in advance. The system uses model output of the Eta regional scale forecast (RSF) to forecast the power production of a wind farm in the Altamont Pass, California, USA from 12 to 48 hours in advance. It is of modular construction and designed to also allow diagnostic forecasting using archived RSF data, thereby allowing different methods of completing each forecasting step to be tested and compared using the same input data. Wind-tunnel investigations of the effect of wind direction and hill geometry on wind speed-up above a hill were conducted. Field data from an Altamont Pass, California site was used to evaluate several speed-up prediction algorithms, both with and without wind direction adjustment. These algorithms were found to be of limited usefulness for the complex terrain case evaluated. Wind-tunnel and numerical simulation-based methods were developed for determining a wind farm power curve (the relation between meteorological conditions at a point in the wind farm and the power production of the wind farm). Both methods, as well as two methods based on fits to historical data, ultimately showed similar levels of accuracy: mean absolute errors predicting power production of 5 to 7 percent of the wind farm power capacity. The downscaling of RSF forecast data to the wind farm was found to be complicated by the presence of complex terrain. Poor results using the geostrophic drag law and regression methods motivated the development of a database search method that is capable of forecasting not only wind speeds but also power production with accuracy better than persistence.

Effectiveness of evaluating tumor vascularization using 3D power Doppler ultrasound with high-definition flow technology in the prediction of the response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy for T2 breast cancer: a preliminary report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shia, Wei-Chung; Chen, Dar-Ren; Huang, Yu-Len; Wu, Hwa-Koon; Kuo, Shou-Jen

2015-10-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of advanced ultrasound (US) imaging of vascular flow and morphological features in the prediction of a pathologic complete response (pCR) and a partial response (PR) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy for T2 breast cancer. Twenty-nine consecutive patients with T2 breast cancer treated with six courses of anthracycline-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy were enrolled. Three-dimensional (3D) power Doppler US with high-definition flow (HDF) technology was used to investigate the blood flow in and morphological features of the tumors. Six vascularity quantization features, three morphological features, and two vascular direction features were selected and extracted from the US images. A support vector machine was used to evaluate the changes in vascularity after neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and pCR and PR were predicted on the basis of these changes. The most accurate prediction of pCR was achieved after the first chemotherapy cycle, with an accuracy of 93.1% and a specificity of 85.5%, while that of a PR was achieved after the second cycle, with an accuracy of 79.31% and a specificity of 72.22%. Vascularity data can be useful to predict the effects of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Determination of changes in vascularity after neoadjuvant chemotherapy using 3D power Doppler US with HDF can generate accurate predictions of the patient response, facilitating early decision-making.

Radiation effects in silicon and gallium arsenide solar cells using isotropic and normally incident radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anspaugh, B. E.; Downing, R. G.

1984-01-01

Several types of silicon and gallium arsenide solar cells were irradiated with protons with energies between 50 keV and 10 MeV at both normal and isotropic incidence. Damage coefficients for maximum power relative to 10 MeV were derived for these cells for both cases of omni-directional and normal incidence. The damage coefficients for the silicon cells were found to be somewhat lower than those quoted in the Solar Cell Radiation Handbook. These values were used to compute omni-directional damage coefficients suitable for solar cells protected by coverglasses of practical thickness, which in turn were used to compute solar cell degradation in two proton-dominated orbits. In spite of the difference in the low energy proton damage coefficients, the difference between the handbook prediction and the prediction using the newly derived values was negligible. Damage coefficients for GaAs solar cells for short circuit current, open circuit voltage, and maximum power were also computed relative to 10 MeV protons. They were used to predict cell degradation in the same two orbits and in a 5600 nmi orbit. Results show the performance of the GaAs solar cells in these orbits to be superior to that of the Si cells.

Modelling and analysis of a direct ascorbic acid fuel cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Yingzhi; Fujiwara, Naoko; Yamazaki, Shin-ichi; Tanimoto, Kazumi; Wu, Ping

L-Ascorbic acid (AA), also known as vitamin C, is an environmentally-benign and biologically-friendly compound that can be used as an alternative fuel for direct oxidation fuel cells. While direct ascorbic acid fuel cells (DAAFCs) have been studied experimentally, modelling and simulation of these devices have been overlooked. In this work, we develop a mathematical model to describe a DAAFC and validate it with experimental data. The model is formulated by integrating the mass and charge balances, and model parameters are estimated by best-fitting to experimental data of current-voltage curves. By comparing the transient voltage curves predicted by dynamic simulation and experiments, the model is further validated. Various parameters that affect the power generation are studied by simulation. The cathodic reaction is found to be the most significant determinant of power generation, followed by fuel feed concentration and the mass-transfer coefficient of ascorbic acid. These studies also reveal that the power density steadily increases with respect to the fuel feed concentration. The results may guide future development and operation of a more efficient DAAFC.

On-line self-learning time forward voltage prognosis for lithium-ion batteries using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischer, Christian; Waag, Wladislaw; Bai, Ziou; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2013-12-01

The battery management system (BMS) of a battery-electric road vehicle must ensure an optimal operation of the electrochemical storage system to guarantee for durability and reliability. In particular, the BMS must provide precise information about the battery's state-of-functionality, i.e. how much dis-/charging power can the battery accept at current state and condition while at the same time preventing it from operating outside its safe operating area. These critical limits have to be calculated in a predictive manner, which serve as a significant input factor for the supervising vehicle energy management (VEM). The VEM must provide enough power to the vehicle's drivetrain for certain tasks and especially in critical driving situations. Therefore, this paper describes a new approach which can be used for state-of-available-power estimation with respect to lowest/highest cell voltage prediction using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The estimated voltage for a given time frame in the future is directly compared with the actual voltage, verifying the effectiveness and accuracy of a relative voltage prediction error of less than 1%. Moreover, the real-time operating capability of the proposed algorithm was verified on a battery test bench while running on a real-time system performing voltage prediction.

PREDICTIVE MODELING OF ACOUSTIC SIGNALS FROM THERMOACOUSTIC POWER SENSORS (TAPS)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dumm, Christopher M.; Vipperman, Jeffrey S.

2016-06-30

Thermoacoustic Power Sensor (TAPS) technology offers the potential for self-powered, wireless measurement of nuclear reactor core operating conditions. TAPS are based on thermoacoustic engines, which harness thermal energy from fission reactions to generate acoustic waves by virtue of gas motion through a porous stack of thermally nonconductive material. TAPS can be placed in the core, where they generate acoustic waves whose frequency and amplitude are proportional to the local temperature and radiation flux, respectively. TAPS acoustic signals are not measured directly at the TAPS; rather, they propagate wirelessly from an individual TAPS through the reactor, and ultimately to a low-powermore » receiver network on the vessel’s exterior. In order to rely on TAPS as primary instrumentation, reactor-specific models which account for geometric/acoustic complexities in the signal propagation environment must be used to predict the amplitude and frequency of TAPS signals at receiver locations. The reactor state may then be derived by comparing receiver signals to the reference levels established by predictive modeling. In this paper, we develop and experimentally benchmark a methodology for predictive modeling of the signals generated by a TAPS system, with the intent of subsequently extending these efforts to modeling of TAPS in a liquid sodium environmen« less

Dynamic Stark spectroscopic measurements of microwave electric fields inside the plasma near a high-power antenna.

PubMed

Klepper, C C; Isler, R C; Hillairet, J; Martin, E H; Colas, L; Ekedahl, A; Goniche, M; Harris, J H; Hillis, D L; Panayotis, S; Pegourié, B; Lotte, Ph; Colledani, G; Martin, V

2013-05-24

Fully dynamic Stark effect visible spectroscopy was used for the first time to directly measure the local rf electric field in the boundary plasma near a high-power antenna in high-performance, magnetically confined, fusion energy experiment. The measurement was performed in the superconducting tokamak Tore Supra, in the near field of a 1–3 MW, lower-hybrid, 3.7 GHz wave-launch antenna, and combined with modeling of neutral atom transport to estimate the local rf electric field amplitude (as low as 1–2 kV/cm) and direction in this region. The measurement was then shown to be consistent with the predicted values from a 2D full-wave propagation model. Notably the measurement confirmed that the electric field direction deviates substantially from the direction in which it is launched by the waveguides as it penetrates only a few cm radially inward into the plasma from the waveguides, consistent with the model.

A distributed big data storage and data mining framework for solar-generated electricity quantity forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jianzong; Chen, Yanjun; Hua, Rui; Wang, Peng; Fu, Jia

2012-02-01

Photovoltaic is a method of generating electrical power by converting solar radiation into direct current electricity using semiconductors that exhibit the photovoltaic effect. Photovoltaic power generation employs solar panels composed of a number of solar cells containing a photovoltaic material. Due to the growing demand for renewable energy sources, the manufacturing of solar cells and photovoltaic arrays has advanced considerably in recent years. Solar photovoltaics are growing rapidly, albeit from a small base, to a total global capacity of 40,000 MW at the end of 2010. More than 100 countries use solar photovoltaics. Driven by advances in technology and increases in manufacturing scale and sophistication, the cost of photovoltaic has declined steadily since the first solar cells were manufactured. Net metering and financial incentives, such as preferential feed-in tariffs for solar-generated electricity; have supported solar photovoltaics installations in many countries. However, the power that generated by solar photovoltaics is affected by the weather and other natural factors dramatically. To predict the photovoltaic energy accurately is of importance for the entire power intelligent dispatch in order to reduce the energy dissipation and maintain the security of power grid. In this paper, we have proposed a big data system--the Solar Photovoltaic Power Forecasting System, called SPPFS to calculate and predict the power according the real-time conditions. In this system, we utilized the distributed mixed database to speed up the rate of collecting, storing and analysis the meteorological data. In order to improve the accuracy of power prediction, the given neural network algorithm has been imported into SPPFS.By adopting abundant experiments, we shows that the framework can provide higher forecast accuracy-error rate less than 15% and obtain low latency of computing by deploying the mixed distributed database architecture for solar-generated electricity.

Sink fast and swim harder! Round-trip cost-of-transport for buoyant divers.

PubMed

Miller, Patrick J O; Biuw, Martin; Watanabe, Yuuki Y; Thompson, Dave; Fedak, Mike A

2012-10-15

Efficient locomotion between prey resources at depth and oxygen at the surface is crucial for breath-hold divers to maximize time spent in the foraging layer, and thereby net energy intake rates. The body density of divers, which changes with body condition, determines the apparent weight (buoyancy) of divers, which may affect round-trip cost-of-transport (COT) between the surface and depth. We evaluated alternative predictions from external-work and actuator-disc theory of how non-neutral buoyancy affects round-trip COT to depth, and the minimum COT speed for steady-state vertical transit. Not surprisingly, the models predict that one-way COT decreases (increases) when buoyancy aids (hinders) one-way transit. At extreme deviations from neutral buoyancy, gliding at terminal velocity is the minimum COT strategy in the direction aided by buoyancy. In the transit direction hindered by buoyancy, the external-work model predicted that minimum COT speeds would not change at greater deviations from neutral buoyancy, but minimum COT speeds were predicted to increase under the actuator disc model. As previously documented for grey seals, we found that vertical transit rates of 36 elephant seals increased in both directions as body density deviated from neutral buoyancy, indicating that actuator disc theory may more closely predict the power requirements of divers affected by gravity than an external work model. For both models, minor deviations from neutral buoyancy did not affect minimum COT speed or round-trip COT itself. However, at body-density extremes, both models predict that savings in the aided direction do not fully offset the increased COT imposed by the greater thrusting required in the hindered direction.

Mechanical evidence of the orbital angular momentum to energy ratio of vortex beams.

PubMed

Demore, Christine E M; Yang, Zhengyi; Volovick, Alexander; Cochran, Sandy; MacDonald, Michael P; Spalding, Gabriel C

2012-05-11

We measure, in a single experiment, both the radiation pressure and the torque due to a wide variety of propagating acoustic vortex beams. The results validate, for the first time directly, the theoretically predicted ratio of the orbital angular momentum to linear momentum in a propagating beam. We experimentally determine this ratio using simultaneous measurements of both the levitation force and the torque on an acoustic absorber exerted by a broad range of helical ultrasonic beams produced by a 1000-element matrix transducer array. In general, beams with helical phase fronts have been shown to contain orbital angular momentum as the result of the azimuthal component of the Poynting vector around the propagation axis. Theory predicts that for both optical and acoustic helical beams the ratio of the angular momentum current of the beam to the power should be given by the ratio of the beam's topological charge to its angular frequency. This direct experimental observation that the ratio of the torque to power does convincingly match the expected value (given by the topological charge to angular frequency ratio of the beam) is a fundamental result.

Whose intentions predict? Power over condom use within heterosexual dyads.

PubMed

VanderDrift, Laura E; Agnew, Christopher R; Harvey, S Marie; Warren, Jocelyn T

2013-10-01

According to major theories of behavioral prediction, the most proximal psychological predictor of an individual's behavior is that individual's intention. With respect to interdependent behaviors such as condom use, however, relationship dynamics influence individuals' power to make decisions and to act. The current study examines how relationship dynamics impact 3 condom use relevant outcomes: (a) the individual forming his or her own intention to use condoms, (b) the couple forming their joint intention to use condoms, and (c) actual condom use behavior. We conducted a 2-wave longitudinal study of young heterosexual adult couples at high risk for HIV infection involving the collection of both individual- and couple-derived data. Results demonstrate the importance of both person (e.g., biological sex and dispositional dominance) and relational (e.g., relational power and amount of interest in the relationship, operationalized as commitment and perceived alternatives to the relationship) factors in predicting condom use intentions and behavior. Individuals who are lower in dispositional dominance are likely to incorporate their partner's intentions into their own individual intentions; the intentions of individuals who have less interest in the relationship are more highly predictive of the couple's joint intention; and the intentions of men and individuals higher in relationship power are more likely to exert a direct influence on condom use. These findings have implications for improving the health of high-risk individuals, including suggesting situations in which individuals are highly influenced by their partners' intentions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

Photovoltaic System Modeling. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Clifford W.; Martin, Curtis E.

2015-08-01

We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling AC energy from ph otovoltaic systems . Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. We quantify u ncertainty i n the output of each model using empirical distribution s of each model's residuals. We propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models by sampli ng these distributions to obtain a n empirical distribution of a PV system's output. We consider models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane - of - array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature;more » (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power ; (5) reduce DC power for losses due to inefficient maximum power point tracking or mismatch among modules; and (6) convert DC to AC power . O ur analysis consider s a notional PV system com prising an array of FirstSolar FS - 387 modules and a 250 kW AC inverter ; we use measured irradiance and weather at Albuquerque, NM. We found the uncertainty in PV syste m output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. We found that unce rtainty in the models for POA irradiance and effective irradiance to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty in predicted daily energy. Our analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output predictions may yield the greatest improvements by focusing on the POA and effective irradiance models.« less

Understanding redshift space distortions in density-weighted peculiar velocity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sugiyama, Naonori S.; Okumura, Teppei; Spergel, David N., E-mail: nao.s.sugiyama@gmail.com, E-mail: teppei.oku@gmail.com, E-mail: dns@astro.princeton.edu

2016-07-01

Observations of the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect measure the density-weighted velocity field, a potentially powerful cosmological probe. This paper presents an analytical method to predict the power spectrum and two-point correlation function of the density-weighted velocity in redshift space, the direct observables in kSZ surveys. We show a simple relation between the density power spectrum and the density-weighted velocity power spectrum that holds for both dark matter and halos. Using this relation, we can then extend familiar perturbation expansion techniques to the kSZ power spectrum. One of the most important features of density-weighted velocity statistics in redshift space is themore » change in sign of the cross-correlation between the density and density-weighted velocity at mildly small scales due to nonlinear redshift space distortions. Our model can explain this characteristic feature without any free parameters. As a result, our results can precisely predict the non-linear behavior of the density-weighted velocity field in redshift space up to ∼ 30 h {sup -1} Mpc for dark matter particles at the redshifts of z =0.0, 0.5, and 1.0.« less

A comparison of flight and simulation data for three automatic landing system control laws for the Augmentor wing jet STOL research airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feinreich, B.; Gevaert, G.

1980-01-01

Automatic flare and decrab control laws for conventional takeoff and landing aircraft were adapted to the unique requirements of the powered lift short takeoff and landing airplane. Three longitudinal autoland control laws were developed. Direct lift and direct drag control were used in the longitudinal axis. A fast time simulation was used for the control law synthesis, with emphasis on stochastic performance prediction and evaluation. Good correlation with flight test results was obtained.

Wind energy resource modelling in Portugal and its future large-scale alteration due to anthropogenic induced climate changes =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalho, David Joao da Silva

The high dependence of Portugal from foreign energy sources (mainly fossil fuels), together with the international commitments assumed by Portugal and the national strategy in terms of energy policy, as well as resources sustainability and climate change issues, inevitably force Portugal to invest in its energetic self-sufficiency. The 20/20/20 Strategy defined by the European Union defines that in 2020 60% of the total electricity consumption must come from renewable energy sources. Wind energy is currently a major source of electricity generation in Portugal, producing about 23% of the national total electricity consumption in 2013. The National Energy Strategy 2020 (ENE2020), which aims to ensure the national compliance of the European Strategy 20/20/20, states that about half of this 60% target will be provided by wind energy. This work aims to implement and optimise a numerical weather prediction model in the simulation and modelling of the wind energy resource in Portugal, both in offshore and onshore areas. The numerical model optimisation consisted in the determination of which initial and boundary conditions and planetary boundary layer physical parameterizations options provide wind power flux (or energy density), wind speed and direction simulations closest to in situ measured wind data. Specifically for offshore areas, it is also intended to evaluate if the numerical model, once optimised, is able to produce power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ measured data than wind measurements collected by satellites. This work also aims to study and analyse possible impacts that anthropogenic climate changes may have on the future wind energetic resource in Europe. The results show that the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-Interim are those that, among all the forcing databases currently available to drive numerical weather prediction models, allow wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements. It was also found that the Pleim-Xiu and ACM2 planetary boundary layer parameterizations are the ones that showed the best performance in terms of wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations. This model optimisation allowed a significant reduction of the wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations errors and, specifically for offshore areas, wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements than data obtained from satellites, which is a very valuable and interesting achievement. This work also revealed that future anthropogenic climate changes can negatively impact future European wind energy resource, due to tendencies towards a reduction in future wind speeds especially by the end of the current century and under stronger radiative forcing conditions.

CASCADE AND DAMPING OF ALFVEN-CYCLOTRON FLUCTUATIONS: APPLICATION TO SOLAR WIND TURBULENCE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang Yanwei; Petrosian, Vahe; Liu Siming

2009-06-10

It is well recognized that the presence of magnetic fields will lead to anisotropic energy cascade and dissipation of astrophysical turbulence. With the diffusion approximation and linear dissipation rates, we study the cascade and damping of Alfven-cyclotron fluctuations in solar plasmas numerically for two diagonal diffusion tensors, one (isotropic) with identical components for the parallel and perpendicular directions (with respect to the magnetic field) and one with different components (nonisotropic). It is found that for the isotropic case the steady-state turbulence spectra are nearly isotropic in the inertial range and can be fitted by a single power-law function with amore » spectral index of -3/2, similar to the Iroshnikov-Kraichnan phenomenology, while for the nonisotropic case the spectra vary greatly with the direction of propagation. The energy fluxes in both cases are much higher in the perpendicular direction than in the parallel direction due to the angular dependence (or inhomogeneity) of the components. In addition, beyond the MHD regime the kinetic effects make the spectrum softer at higher wavenumbers. In the dissipation range the turbulence spectrum cuts off at the wavenumber, where the damping rate becomes comparable to the cascade rate, and the cutoff wavenumber changes with the wave propagation direction. The angle-averaged turbulence spectrum of the isotropic model resembles a broken power law, which cuts off at the maximum of the cutoff wavenumbers or the {sup 4}He cyclotron frequency. Taking into account the Doppler effects, the model naturally reproduces the broken power-law turbulence spectra observed in the solar wind and predicts that a higher break frequency always comes along with a softer dissipation range spectrum that may be caused by the increase of the turbulence intensity, the reciprocal of the plasma {beta}{sub p}, and/or the angle between the solar wind velocity and the mean magnetic field. These predictions can be tested by detailed comparisons with more accurate observations.« less

Prediction of the far field noise from wind energy farms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, K. P.; Hubbard, H. H.

1986-01-01

The basic physical factors involved in making predictions of wind turbine noise and an approach which allows for differences in the machines, the wind energy farm configurations and propagation conditions are reviewed. Example calculations to illustrate the sensitivity of the radiated noise to such variables as machine size, spacing and numbers, and such atmosphere variables as absorption and wind direction are presented. It is found that calculated far field distances to particular sound level contours are greater for lower values of atmospheric absorption, for a larger total number of machines, for additional rows of machines and for more powerful machines. At short and intermediate distances, higher sound pressure levels are calculated for closer machine spacings, for more powerful machines, for longer row lengths and for closer row spacings.

Models for 31-Mode PVDF Energy Harvester for Wearable Applications

PubMed Central

Zhao, Jingjing; You, Zheng

2014-01-01

Currently, wearable electronics are increasingly widely used, leading to an increasing need of portable power supply. As a clean and renewable power source, piezoelectric energy harvester can transfer mechanical energy into electric energy directly, and the energy harvester based on polyvinylidene difluoride (PVDF) operating in 31-mode is appropriate to harvest energy from human motion. This paper established a series of theoretical models to predict the performance of 31-mode PVDF energy harvester. Among them, the energy storage one can predict the collected energy accurately during the operation of the harvester. Based on theoretical study and experiments investigation, two approaches to improve the energy harvesting performance have been found. Furthermore, experiment results demonstrate the high accuracies of the models, which are better than 95%. PMID:25114981

The COMMAND trial of cognitive therapy to prevent harmful compliance with command hallucinations: predictors of outcome and mediators of change.

PubMed

Birchwood, Max; Dunn, Graham; Meaden, Alan; Tarrier, Nicholas; Lewis, Shon; Wykes, Til; Davies, Linda; Michail, Maria; Peters, Emmanuelle

2017-12-05

Acting on harmful command hallucinations is a major clinical concern. Our COMMAND CBT trial approximately halved the rate of harmful compliance (OR = 0.45, 95% CI 0.23-0.88, p = 0.021). The focus of the therapy was a single mechanism, the power dimension of voice appraisal, was also significantly reduced. We hypothesised that voice power differential (between voice and voice hearer) was the mediator of the treatment effect. The trial sample (n = 197) was used. A logistic regression model predicting 18-month compliance was used to identify predictors, and an exploratory principal component analysis (PCA) of baseline variables used as potential predictors (confounders) in their own right. Stata's paramed command used to obtain estimates of the direct, indirect and total effects of treatment. Voice omnipotence was the best predictor although the PCA identified a highly predictive cognitive-affective dimension comprising: voices' power, childhood trauma, depression and self-harm. In the mediation analysis, the indirect effect of treatment was fully explained by its effect on the hypothesised mediator: voice power differential. Voice power and treatment allocation were the best predictors of harmful compliance up to 18 months; post-treatment, voice power differential measured at nine months was the mediator of the effect of treatment on compliance at 18 months.

The wind power prediction research based on mind evolutionary algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Ling; Zhao, Xinjian; Ji, Tianming; Miao, Jingwen; Cui, Haina

2018-04-01

When the wind power is connected to the power grid, its characteristics of fluctuation, intermittent and randomness will affect the stability of the power system. The wind power prediction can guarantee the power quality and reduce the operating cost of power system. There were some limitations in several traditional wind power prediction methods. On the basis, the wind power prediction method based on Mind Evolutionary Algorithm (MEA) is put forward and a prediction model is provided. The experimental results demonstrate that MEA performs efficiently in term of the wind power prediction. The MEA method has broad prospect of engineering application.

In-class didactic versus self-directed teaching of the probe-based confocal laser endomicroscopy (pCLE) criteria for Barrett's esophagus.

PubMed

Rzouq, Fadi; Vennalaganti, Prashanth; Pakseresht, Kavous; Kanakadandi, Vijay; Parasa, Sravanthi; Mathur, Sharad C; Alsop, Benjamin R; Hornung, Benjamin; Gupta, Neil; Sharma, Prateek

2016-02-01

Optimal teaching methods for disease recognition using probe-based confocal laser endomicroscopy (pCLE) have not been developed. Our aim was to compare in-class didactic teaching vs. self-directed teaching of Barrett's neoplasia diagnosis using pCLE. This randomized controlled trial was conducted at a tertiary academic center. Study participants with no prior pCLE experience were randomized to in-class didactic (group 1) or self-directed teaching groups (group 2). For group 1, an expert conducted a classroom teaching session using standardized educational material. Participants in group 2 were provided with the same material on an audio PowerPoint. After initial training, all participants graded an initial set of 20 pCLE videos and reviewed correct responses with the expert (group 1) or on audio PowerPoint (group 2). Finally, all participants completed interpretations of a further 40 videos. Eighteen trainees (8 medical students, 10 gastroenterology trainees) participated in the study. Overall diagnostic accuracy for neoplasia prediction by pCLE was 77 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 74.0 % - 79.2 %); of predictions made with high confidence (53 %), the accuracy was 85 % (95 %CI 81.8 % - 87.8 %). The overall accuracy and interobserver agreement was significantly higher in group 1 than in group 2 for all predictions (80.4 % vs. 73 %; P = 0.005) and for high confidence predictions (90 % vs. 80 %; P < 0.001). Following feedback (after the initial 20 videos), the overall accuracy improved from 73 % to 79 % (P = 0.04), mainly driven by a significant improvement in group 1 (74 % to 84 %; P < 0.01). Accuracy of prediction significantly improved with time in endoscopy training (72 % students, 77 % FY1, 82 % FY2, and 85 % FY3; P = 0.003). For novice trainees, in-class didactic teaching enables significantly better recognition of the pCLE features of Barrett's esophagus than self-directed teaching. The in-class didactic group had a shorter learning curve and were able to achieve 90 % accuracy for their high confidence predictions. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Gaseous-fuel nuclear reactor research for multimegawatt power in space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thom, K.; Schneider, R. T.; Helmick, H. H.

1977-01-01

In the gaseous-fuel reactor concept, the fissile material is contained in a moderator-reflector cavity and exists in the form of a flowing gas or plasma separated from the cavity walls by means of fluid mechanical forces. Temperatures in excess of structural limitations are possible for low-specific-mass power and high-specific-impulse propulsion in space. Experiments have been conducted with a canister filled with enriched UF6 inserted into a beryllium-reflected cavity. A theoretically predicted critical mass of 6 kg was measured. The UF6 was also circulated through this cavity, demonstrating stable reactor operation with the fuel in motion. Because the flowing gaseous fuel can be continuously processed, the radioactive waste in this type of reactor can be kept small. Another potential of fissioning gases is the possibility of converting the kinetic energy of fission fragments directly into coherent electromagnetic radiation, the nuclear pumping of lasers. Numerous nuclear laser experiments indicate the possibility of transmitting power in space directly from fission energy. The estimated specific mass of a multimegawatt gaseous-fuel reactor power system is from 1 to 5 kg/kW while the companion laser-power receiver station would be much lower in specific mass.

Evaluating measurements of carbon dioxide emissions using a precision source--A natural gas burner.

PubMed

Bryant, Rodney; Bundy, Matthew; Zong, Ruowen

2015-07-01

A natural gas burner has been used as a precise and accurate source for generating large quantities of carbon dioxide (CO2) to evaluate emissions measurements at near-industrial scale. Two methods for determining carbon dioxide emissions from stationary sources are considered here: predicting emissions based on fuel consumption measurements-predicted emissions measurements, and direct measurement of emissions quantities in the flue gas-direct emissions measurements. Uncertainty for the predicted emissions measurement was estimated at less than 1%. Uncertainty estimates for the direct emissions measurement of carbon dioxide were on the order of ±4%. The relative difference between the direct emissions measurements and the predicted emissions measurements was within the range of the measurement uncertainty, therefore demonstrating good agreement. The study demonstrates how independent methods are used to validate source emissions measurements, while also demonstrating how a fire research facility can be used as a precision test-bed to evaluate and improve carbon dioxide emissions measurements from stationary sources. Fossil-fuel-consuming stationary sources such as electric power plants and industrial facilities account for more than half of the CO2 emissions in the United States. Therefore, accurate emissions measurements from these sources are critical for evaluating efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This study demonstrates how a surrogate for a stationary source, a fire research facility, can be used to evaluate the accuracy of measurements of CO2 emissions.

Formation of visual memories controlled by gamma power phase-locked to alpha oscillations.

PubMed

Park, Hyojin; Lee, Dong Soo; Kang, Eunjoo; Kang, Hyejin; Hahm, Jarang; Kim, June Sic; Chung, Chun Kee; Jiang, Haiteng; Gross, Joachim; Jensen, Ole

2016-06-16

Neuronal oscillations provide a window for understanding the brain dynamics that organize the flow of information from sensory to memory areas. While it has been suggested that gamma power reflects feedforward processing and alpha oscillations feedback control, it remains unknown how these oscillations dynamically interact. Magnetoencephalography (MEG) data was acquired from healthy subjects who were cued to either remember or not remember presented pictures. Our analysis revealed that in anticipation of a picture to be remembered, alpha power decreased while the cross-frequency coupling between gamma power and alpha phase increased. A measure of directionality between alpha phase and gamma power predicted individual ability to encode memory: stronger control of alpha phase over gamma power was associated with better memory. These findings demonstrate that encoding of visual information is reflected by a state determined by the interaction between alpha and gamma activity.

Formation of visual memories controlled by gamma power phase-locked to alpha oscillations

PubMed Central

Park, Hyojin; Lee, Dong Soo; Kang, Eunjoo; Kang, Hyejin; Hahm, Jarang; Kim, June Sic; Chung, Chun Kee; Jiang, Haiteng; Gross, Joachim; Jensen, Ole

2016-01-01

Neuronal oscillations provide a window for understanding the brain dynamics that organize the flow of information from sensory to memory areas. While it has been suggested that gamma power reflects feedforward processing and alpha oscillations feedback control, it remains unknown how these oscillations dynamically interact. Magnetoencephalography (MEG) data was acquired from healthy subjects who were cued to either remember or not remember presented pictures. Our analysis revealed that in anticipation of a picture to be remembered, alpha power decreased while the cross-frequency coupling between gamma power and alpha phase increased. A measure of directionality between alpha phase and gamma power predicted individual ability to encode memory: stronger control of alpha phase over gamma power was associated with better memory. These findings demonstrate that encoding of visual information is reflected by a state determined by the interaction between alpha and gamma activity. PMID:27306959

Formation of visual memories controlled by gamma power phase-locked to alpha oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Hyojin; Lee, Dong Soo; Kang, Eunjoo; Kang, Hyejin; Hahm, Jarang; Kim, June Sic; Chung, Chun Kee; Jiang, Haiteng; Gross, Joachim; Jensen, Ole

2016-06-01

Neuronal oscillations provide a window for understanding the brain dynamics that organize the flow of information from sensory to memory areas. While it has been suggested that gamma power reflects feedforward processing and alpha oscillations feedback control, it remains unknown how these oscillations dynamically interact. Magnetoencephalography (MEG) data was acquired from healthy subjects who were cued to either remember or not remember presented pictures. Our analysis revealed that in anticipation of a picture to be remembered, alpha power decreased while the cross-frequency coupling between gamma power and alpha phase increased. A measure of directionality between alpha phase and gamma power predicted individual ability to encode memory: stronger control of alpha phase over gamma power was associated with better memory. These findings demonstrate that encoding of visual information is reflected by a state determined by the interaction between alpha and gamma activity.

Awareness Is Necessary for Extracting Patterns in Working Memory but Not for Directing Spatial Attention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsieh, Po-Jang; Colas, Jaron T.

2012-01-01

The contents of working memory (WM) have predominantly been viewed as necessarily conscious. However, recent findings suggest otherwise. Here we investigate whether visual WM can represent subliminal stimuli, such that the positions of an invisible moving object can be extrapolated or learned about in terms of their task-relevant predictive power.…

Tools and techniques for estimating high intensity RF effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zacharias, Richard L.; Pennock, Steve T.; Poggio, Andrew J.; Ray, Scott L.

1992-01-01

Tools and techniques for estimating and measuring coupling and component disturbance for avionics and electronic controls are described. A finite-difference-time-domain (FD-TD) modeling code, TSAR, used to predict coupling is described. This code can quickly generate a mesh model to represent the test object. Some recent applications as well as the advantages and limitations of using such a code are described. Facilities and techniques for making low-power coupling measurements and for making direct injection test measurements of device disturbance are also described. Some scaling laws for coupling and device effects are presented. A method for extrapolating these low-power test results to high-power full-system effects are presented.

Comparison of Methodologies Using Estimated or Measured Values of Total Corneal Astigmatism for Toric Intraocular Lens Power Calculation.

PubMed

Ferreira, Tiago B; Ribeiro, Paulo; Ribeiro, Filomena J; O'Neill, João G

2017-12-01

To compare the prediction error in the calculation of toric intraocular lenses (IOLs) associated with methods that estimate the power of the posterior corneal surface (ie, Barrett toric calculator and Abulafia-Koch formula) with that of methods that consider real measures obtained using Scheimpflug imaging: a software that uses vectorial calculation (Panacea toric calculator: http://www.panaceaiolandtoriccalculator.com) and a ray tracing software (PhacoOptics, Aarhus Nord, Denmark). In 107 eyes of 107 patients undergoing cataract surgery with toric IOL implantation (Acrysof IQ Toric; Alcon Laboratories, Inc., Fort Worth, TX), predicted residual astigmatism by each calculation method was compared with manifest refractive astigmatism. Prediction error in residual astigmatism was calculated using vector analysis. All calculation methods resulted in overcorrection of with-the-rule astigmatism and undercorrection of against-the-rule astigmatism. Both estimation methods resulted in lower mean and centroid astigmatic prediction errors, and a larger number of eyes within 0.50 diopters (D) of absolute prediction error than methods considering real measures (P < .001). Centroid prediction error (CPE) was 0.07 D at 172° for the Barrett toric calculator and 0.13 D at 174° for the Abulafia-Koch formula (combined with Holladay calculator). For methods using real posterior corneal surface measurements, CPE was 0.25 D at 173° for the Panacea calculator and 0.29 D at 171° for the ray tracing software. The Barrett toric calculator and Abulafia-Koch formula yielded the lowest astigmatic prediction errors. Directly evaluating total corneal power for toric IOL calculation was not superior to estimating it. [J Refract Surg. 2017;33(12):794-800.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

Mode-independent attenuation in evanescent-field sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnewuch, Harald; Renner, Hagen

1995-03-01

Generally, the total power attenuation in multimode evanescent-field sensor waveguides is nonproportional to the bulk absorbance because the modal attenuation constants differ. Hence a direct measurement is difficult and is additionally aggravated because the waveguide absorbance is highly sensitive to the specific launching conditions at the waveguide input. A general asymptotic formula for the modal power attenuation in strongly asymmetric inhomogeneous planar waveguides with arbitrarily distributed weak absorption in the low-index superstrate is derived. Explicit expressions for typical refractive-index profiles are given. Except when very close to the cutoff, the predicted asymptotic attenuation behavior agrees well with exact calculations. The ratio of TM versus TE absorption has been derived to be (2 - n0 2/nf2 ) for arbitrary profiles. Waveguides with a linear refractive-index profile show mode-independent attenuation coefficients within each polarization. Further, the asymptotic sensitivity is independent of the wavelength, so that it should be possible to directly measure the spectral variation of the bulk absorption. The mode independence of the attenuation has been verified experimentally for a second-order polynomial profile, which is close to a linear refractive-index distribution. In contrast, the attenuation in the step-profile waveguide has been found to depend strongly on the mode number, as predicted by theory. A strong spread of the modal attenuation coefficients is also predicted for the parabolic-profile waveguide sensor.

Exonic Splicing Mutations Are More Prevalent than Currently Estimated and Can Be Predicted by Using In Silico Tools

PubMed Central

Soukarieh, Omar; Gaildrat, Pascaline; Hamieh, Mohamad; Drouet, Aurélie; Baert-Desurmont, Stéphanie; Frébourg, Thierry; Tosi, Mario; Martins, Alexandra

2016-01-01

The identification of a causal mutation is essential for molecular diagnosis and clinical management of many genetic disorders. However, even if next-generation exome sequencing has greatly improved the detection of nucleotide changes, the biological interpretation of most exonic variants remains challenging. Moreover, particular attention is typically given to protein-coding changes often neglecting the potential impact of exonic variants on RNA splicing. Here, we used the exon 10 of MLH1, a gene implicated in hereditary cancer, as a model system to assess the prevalence of RNA splicing mutations among all single-nucleotide variants identified in a given exon. We performed comprehensive minigene assays and analyzed patient’s RNA when available. Our study revealed a staggering number of splicing mutations in MLH1 exon 10 (77% of the 22 analyzed variants), including mutations directly affecting splice sites and, particularly, mutations altering potential splicing regulatory elements (ESRs). We then used this thoroughly characterized dataset, together with experimental data derived from previous studies on BRCA1, BRCA2, CFTR and NF1, to evaluate the predictive power of 3 in silico approaches recently described as promising tools for pinpointing ESR-mutations. Our results indicate that ΔtESRseq and ΔHZEI-based approaches not only discriminate which variants affect splicing, but also predict the direction and severity of the induced splicing defects. In contrast, the ΔΨ-based approach did not show a compelling predictive power. Our data indicates that exonic splicing mutations are more prevalent than currently appreciated and that they can now be predicted by using bioinformatics methods. These findings have implications for all genetically-caused diseases. PMID:26761715

Chronic pain and praying to a higher power: useful or useless?

PubMed

Andersson, Gerhard

2008-06-01

In the present study a Swedish sample of 118 persons with chronic pain completed online tests on two occasions in association with treatment trials. A three item subscale measuring praying as a coping strategy was derived from the Coping Strategies Questionnaire (CSQ), but adapted to refer to "a higher power" instead of "God". Measures of pain and anxiety/depression were also included. Results revealed significant associations between praying and pain interference and impairment. Praying was also associated with anxiety and depression scores. Results also showed that prayer predicted depression scores at follow-up, and that follow-up prayer was predicted by pain interference at first measurement occasion. Overall, if prayer had any relation with the other variables it was in the negative direction of more distress being associated with more praying both concurrently and prospectively.

Validity of the Miller forensic assessment of symptoms test in psychiatric inpatients.

PubMed

Veazey, Connie H; Wagner, Alisha L; Hays, J Ray; Miller, Holly A

2005-06-01

This study investigated the validity of the Miller Forensic Assessment of Symptoms Test (M-FAST), a brief measure of malingering, in an inpatient psychiatric sample of 70. Among those patients who also completed the Personality Assessment Inventory (N=44), Total M-FAST score was related in the expected directions to the Personality Assessment Inventory validity scales and indexes, providing evidence for concurrent validity of the M-FAST. With the PAI malingering index used as a criterion, we examined the diagnostic efficiency of the M-FAST and found a cut score of 8 represented the best balance of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive power, and negative predictive power. Based on this cut-score of 8, 16% of the population was classified as malingering. The M-FAST appears to be an excellent rapid screen for symptom exaggeration in this population and setting.

The electronic stopping powers and angular energy-loss dependence of helium and lithium ions in the silicon crystal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikšová, R.; Macková, A.; Malinský, P.

2017-09-01

We have measured the electronic stopping powers of helium and lithium ions in the channelling direction of the Si〈1 0 0〉 crystal. The energy range used (2.0-8.0 MeV) was changed by 200 and 400-keV steps. The ratio α between the channelling and random stopping powers was determined as a function of the angle for 2, 3 and 4 MeV 4He+ ions and for 3 and 6 MeV 7Li+,2+ ions. The measurements were carried out using the Rutherford backscattering spectrometry in the channelling mode (RBS-C) in a silicon-on-insulator material. The experimental channelling stopping-power values measured in the channelling direction were then discussed in the frame of the random energy stopping predictions calculated using SRIM-2013 code and the theoretical unitary convolution approximation (UCA) model. The experimental channelling stopping-power values decrease with increasing ion energy. The stopping-power difference between channelled and randomly moving ions increases with the enhanced initial ion energy. The ratio between the channelling and random ion stopping powers α as a function of the ion beam incoming angle for 2, 3 and 4 MeV He+ ions and for 3 and 6 MeV Li+,2+ ions was observed in the range 0.5-1.

Cost analysis of a coal-fired power plant using the NPV method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Ravinder; Sharma, Avdhesh Kr.; Tewari, P. C.

2015-12-01

The present study investigates the impact of various factors affecting coal-fired power plant economics of 210 MW subcritical unit situated in north India for electricity generation. In this paper, the cost data of various units of thermal power plant in terms of power output capacity have been fitted using power law with the help of the data collected from a literature search. To have a realistic estimate of primary components or equipment, it is necessary to include the latest cost of these components. The cost analysis of the plant was carried out on the basis of total capital investment, operating cost and revenue. The total capital investment includes the total direct plant cost and total indirect plant cost. Total direct plant cost involves the cost of equipment (i.e. boiler, steam turbine, condenser, generator and auxiliary equipment including condensate extraction pump, feed water pump, etc.) and other costs associated with piping, electrical, civil works, direct installation cost, auxiliary services, instrumentation and controls, and site preparation. The total indirect plant cost includes the cost of engineering and set-up. The net present value method was adopted for the present study. The work presented in this paper is an endeavour to study the influence of some of the important parameters on the lifetime costs of a coal-fired power plant. For this purpose, parametric study with and without escalation rates for a period of 35 years plant life was evaluated. The results predicted that plant life, interest rate and the escalation rate were observed to be very sensitive on plant economics in comparison to other factors under study.

Spontaneous Polariton Currents in Periodic Lateral Chains.

PubMed

Nalitov, A V; Liew, T C H; Kavokin, A V; Altshuler, B L; Rubo, Y G

2017-08-11

We predict spontaneous generation of superfluid polariton currents in planar microcavities with lateral periodic modulation of both the potential and decay rate. A spontaneous breaking of spatial inversion symmetry of a polariton condensate emerges at a critical pumping, and the current direction is stochastically chosen. We analyze the stability of the current with respect to the fluctuations of the condensate. A peculiar spatial current domain structure emerges, where the current direction is switched at the domain walls, and the characteristic domain size and lifetime scale with the pumping power.

High-Efficiency Nested Hall Thrusters for Robotic Solar System Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hofer, Richard R.

2013-01-01

This work describes the scaling and design attributes of Nested Hall Thrusters (NHT) with extremely large operational envelopes, including a wide range of throttleability in power and specific impulse at high efficiency (>50%). NHTs have the potential to provide the game changing performance, powerprocessing capabilities, and cost effectiveness required to enable missions that cannot otherwise be accomplished. NHTs were first identified in the electric propulsion community as a path to 100- kW class thrusters for human missions. This study aimed to identify the performance capabilities NHTs can provide for NASA robotic and human missions, with an emphasis on 10-kW class thrusters well-suited for robotic exploration. A key outcome of this work has been the identification of NHTs as nearly constant-efficiency devices over large power throttling ratios, especially in direct-drive power systems. NHT systems sized for robotic solar system exploration are predicted to be capable of high-efficiency operation over nearly their entire power throttling range. A traditional Annular Hall Thruster (AHT) consists of a single annular discharge chamber where the propellant is ionized and accelerated. In an NHT, multiple annular channels are concentrically stacked. The channels can be operated in unison or individually depending on the available power or required performance. When throttling an AHT, performance must be sacrificed since a single channel cannot satisfy the diverse design attributes needed to maintain high thrust efficiency. NHTs can satisfy these requirements by varying which channels are operated and thereby offer significant benefits in terms of thruster performance, especially under deep power throttling conditions where the efficiency of an AHT suffers since a single channel can only operate efficiently (>50%) over a narrow power throttling ratio (3:1). Designs for 10-kW class NHTs were developed and compared with AHT systems. Power processing systems were considered using either traditional Power Processing Units (PPU) or Direct Drive Units (DDU). In a PPU-based system, power from the solar arrays is transformed from the low voltage of the arrays to the high voltage needed by the thruster. In a DDU-based system, power from the solar arrays is fed to the thruster without conversion. DDU-based systems are attractive for their simplicity since they eliminate the most complex and expensive part of the propulsion system. The results point to the strong potential of NHTs operating with either PPUs or DDUs to benefit robotic and human missions through their unprecedented power and specific impulse throttling capabilities. NHTs coupled to traditional PPUs are predicted to offer high-efficiency (>50%) power throttling ratios 320% greater than present capabilities, while NHTs with direct-drive power systems (DDU) could exceed existing capabilities by 340%. Because the NHT-DDU approach is implicitly low-cost, NHT-DDU technology has the potential to radically reduce the cost of SEP-enabled NASA missions while simultaneously enabling unprecedented performance capability.

Thermomechanical modelling of laser surface glazing for H13 tool steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabir, I. R.; Yin, D.; Tamanna, N.; Naher, S.

2018-03-01

A two-dimensional thermomechanical finite element (FE) model of laser surface glazing (LSG) has been developed for H13 tool steel. The direct coupling technique of ANSYS 17.2 (APDL) has been utilised to solve the transient thermomechanical process. A H13 tool steel cylindrical cross-section has been modelled for laser power 200 W and 300 W at constant 0.2 mm beam width and 0.15 ms residence time. The model can predict temperature distribution, stress-strain increments in elastic and plastic region with time and space. The crack formation tendency also can be assumed by analysing the von Mises stress in the heat-concentrated zone. Isotropic and kinematic hardening models have been applied separately to predict the after-yield phenomena. At 200 W laser power, the peak surface temperature achieved is 1520 K which is below the melting point (1727 K) of H13 tool steel. For laser power 300 W, the peak surface temperature is 2523 K. Tensile residual stresses on surface have been found after cooling, which are in agreement with literature. Isotropic model shows higher residual stress that increases with laser power. Conversely, kinematic model gives lower residual stress which decreases with laser power. Therefore, both plasticity models could work in LSG for H13 tool steel.

Testing the accuracy of correlations for multicomponent mass transport of adsorbed gases in metal-organic frameworks: diffusion of H2/CH4 mixtures in CuBTC.

PubMed

Keskin, Seda; Liu, Jinchen; Johnson, J Karl; Sholl, David S

2008-08-05

Mass transport of chemical mixtures in nanoporous materials is important in applications such as membrane separations, but measuring diffusion of mixtures experimentally is challenging. Methods that can predict multicomponent diffusion coefficients from single-component data can be extremely useful if these methods are known to be accurate. We present the first test of a method of this kind for molecules adsorbed in a metal-organic framework (MOF). Specifically, we examine the method proposed by Skoulidas, Sholl, and Krishna (SSK) ( Langmuir, 2003, 19, 7977) by comparing predictions made with this method to molecular simulations of mixture transport of H 2/CH 4 mixtures in CuBTC. These calculations provide the first direct information on mixture transport of any species in a MOF. The predictions of the SSK approach are in good agreement with our direct simulations of binary diffusion, suggesting that this approach may be a powerful one for examining multicomponent diffusion in MOFs. We also use our molecular simulation data to test the ideal adsorbed solution theory method for predicting binary adsorption isotherms and a method for predicting mixture self-diffusion coefficients.

Unveiling the First Black Holes With JWST:Multi-wavelength Spectral Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natarajan, Priyamvada; Pacucci, Fabio; Ferrara, Andrea; Agarwal, Bhaskar; Ricarte, Angelo; Zackrisson, Erik; Cappelluti, Nico

2017-04-01

Growing supermassive black holes (˜ {10}9 {M}⊙ ) that power luminous z> 6 quasars from light seeds—the remnants of the first stars—within a Gyr of the Big Bang poses a timing challenge. The formation of massive black hole seeds via direct collapse with initial masses ˜ {10}4{--}{10}5 {M}⊙ alleviates this problem. Viable direct-collapse black hole formation sites, the satellite halos of star-forming galaxies, merge and acquire stars to produce a new, transient class of high-redshift objects, obese black hole galaxies (OBGs). The accretion luminosity outshines that of the stars in OBGs. We predict the multi-wavelength energy output of OBGs and growing Pop III remnants at z = 9 for standard and slim disk accretion, as well as high and low metallicities of the associated stellar population. We derive robust selection criteria for OBGs—a pre-selection to eliminate blue sources, followed by color-color cuts ([{F}090W-{F}220W]> 0;-0.3< [{F}200W-{F}444W]< 0.3) and the ratio of X-ray flux to rest-frame optical flux ({F}X/{F}444W\\gg 1). Our cuts sift out OBGs from other bright, high- and low-redshift contaminants in the infrared. OBGs with predicted {M}{AB}< 25 are unambiguously detectable by the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI), on the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). For parameters explored here, growing Pop III remnants with predicted {M}{AB}< 30 will likely be undetectable by JWST. We demonstrate that JWST has the power to discriminate between initial seeding mechanisms.

A theory of physician-hospital integration: contending institutional and market logics in the health care field.

PubMed

Rundall, Thomas G; Shortell, Stephen M; Alexander, Jeffrey A

2004-01-01

This article proposes a theory of physician-hospital integration. The theory is developed by building on three streams of scholarship: "new" institutionalism, "old" institutionalism, and the theory of economic markets. The theory uses several key concepts from these theoretical frameworks, including the notions of environmental demands for legitimacy, market demands for efficiency, and agency. To enhance the predictive power of the theory, two new concepts are introduced: directionality of influence between institutional and market forces at the macro-societal level, and degree of separation of institutional and market domains at the local level--which add important predictive power to the theory. Using these concepts, a number of hypotheses are proposed regarding the ideal types of physician-hospital arrangements that are likely to emerge under different combinations of directionality of influence and institutional and market domain separation. Moreover, the theory generates hypotheses regarding organizational dynamics associated with physician-hospital integration, including the conditions associated with high and low prevalence of physician-hospital integration, the extent to which the integrated organization is physician-centric or hospital-centric, and whether physician-hospital integration is likely to be based on loose contractual arrangements or tight, ownership-based arrangements.

Estimating radiofrequency power deposition in body NMR imaging.

PubMed

Bottomley, P A; Redington, R W; Edelstein, W A; Schenck, J F

1985-08-01

Simple theoretical estimates of the average, maximum, and spatial variation of the radiofrequency power deposition (specific absorption rate) during hydrogen nuclear magnetic resonance imaging are deduced for homogeneous spheres and for cylinders of biological tissue with a uniformly penetrating linear rf field directed axially and transverse to the cylindrical axis. These are all simple scalar multiples of the expression for the cylinder in an axial field published earlier (Med. Phys. 8, 510 (1981]. Exact solutions for the power deposition in the cylinder with axial (Phys. Med. Biol. 23, 630 (1978] and transversely directed rf field are also presented, and the spatial variation of power deposition in head and body models is examined. In the exact models, the specific absorption rates decrease rapidly and monotonically with decreasing radius despite local increases in rf field amplitude. Conversion factors are provided for calculating the power deposited by Gaussian and sinc-modulated rf pulses used for slice selection in NMR imaging, relative to rectangular profiled pulses. Theoretical estimates are compared with direct measurements of the total power deposited in the bodies of nine adult males by a 63-MHz body-imaging system with transversely directed field, taking account of cable and NMR coil losses. The results for the average power deposition agree within about 20% for the exact model of the cylinder with axial field, when applied to the exposed torso volume enclosed by the rf coil. The average values predicted by the simple spherical and cylindrical models with axial fields, the exact cylindrical model with transverse field, and the simple truncated cylinder model with transverse field were about two to three times that measured, while the simple model consisting of an infinitely long cylinder with transverse field gave results about six times that measured. The surface power deposition measured by observing the incremental power as a function of external torso radius was comparable to the average value. This is consistent with the presence of a variable thickness peripheral adipose layer which does not substantially increase surface power deposition with increasing torso radius. The absence of highly localized intensity artifacts in 63-MHz body images does not suggest anomalously intense power deposition at localized internal sites, although peak power is difficult to measure.

Heat pipe cooling of power processing magnetics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, I. G.; Chester, M.

1979-01-01

The constant demand for increased power and reduced mass has raised the internal temperature of conventionally cooled power magnetics toward the upper limit of acceptability. The conflicting demands of electrical isolation, mechanical integrity, and thermal conductivity preclude significant further advancements using conventional approaches. However, the size and mass of multikilowatt power processing systems may be further reduced by the incorporation of heat pipe cooling directly into the power magnetics. Additionally, by maintaining lower more constant temperatures, the life and reliability of the magnetic devices will be improved. A heat pipe cooled transformer and input filter have been developed for the 2.4 kW beam supply of a 30-cm ion thruster system. This development yielded a mass reduction of 40% (1.76 kg) and lower mean winding temperature (20 C lower). While these improvements are significant, preliminary designs predict even greater benefits to be realized at higher power. This paper presents the design details along with the results of thermal vacuum operation and the component performance in a 3 kW breadboard power processor.

Experimental Results from the Thermal Energy Storage-1 (TES-1) Flight Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wald, Lawrence W.; Tolbert, Carol; Jacqmin, David

1995-01-01

The Thermal Energy Storage-1 (TES-1) is a flight experiment that flew on the Space Shuttle Columbia (STS-62), in March 1994, as part of the OAST-2 mission. TES-1 is the first experiment in a four experiment suite designed to provide data for understanding the long duration microgravity behavior of thermal energy storage fluoride salts that undergo repeated melting and freezing. Such data have never been obtained before and have direct application for the development of space-based solar dynamic (SD) power systems. These power systems will store solar energy in a thermal energy salt such as lithium fluoride or calcium fluoride. The stored energy is extracted during the shade portion of the orbit. This enables the solar dynamic power system to provide constant electrical power over the entire orbit. Analytical computer codes have been developed for predicting performance of a spaced-based solar dynamic power system. Experimental verification of the analytical predictions is needed prior to using the analytical results for future space power design applications. The four TES flight experiments will be used to obtain the needed experimental data. This paper will focus on the flight results from the first experiment, TES-1, in comparison to the predicted results from the Thermal Energy Storage Simulation (TESSIM) analytical computer code. The TES-1 conceptual development, hardware design, final development, and system verification testing were accomplished at the NASA lewis Research Center (LeRC). TES-1 was developed under the In-Space Technology Experiment Program (IN-STEP), which sponsors NASA, industry, and university flight experiments designed to enable and enhance space flight technology. The IN-STEP Program is sponsored by the Office of Space Access and Technology (OSAT).

Non-Nuclear Validation Test Results of a Closed Brayton Cycle Test-Loop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Steven A.

2007-01-01

Both NASA and DOE have programs that are investigating advanced power conversion cycles for planetary surface power on the moon or Mars, or for next generation nuclear power plants on earth. Although open Brayton cycles are in use for many applications (combined cycle power plants, aircraft engines), only a few closed Brayton cycles have been tested. Experience with closed Brayton cycles coupled to nuclear reactors is even more limited and current projections of Brayton cycle performance are based on analytic models. This report describes and compares experimental results with model predictions from a series of non-nuclear tests using a small scale closed loop Brayton cycle available at Sandia National Laboratories. A substantial amount of testing has been performed, and the information is being used to help validate models. In this report we summarize the results from three kinds of tests. These tests include: 1) test results that are useful for validating the characteristic flow curves of the turbomachinery for various gases ranging from ideal gases (Ar or Ar/He) to non-ideal gases such as CO2, 2) test results that represent shut down transients and decay heat removal capability of Brayton loops after reactor shut down, and 3) tests that map a range of operating power versus shaft speed curve and turbine inlet temperature that are useful for predicting stable operating conditions during both normal and off-normal operating behavior. These tests reveal significant interactions between the reactor and balance of plant. Specifically these results predict limited speed up behavior of the turbomachinery caused by loss of load, the conditions for stable operation, and for direct cooled reactors, the tests reveal that the coast down behavior during loss of power events can extend for hours provided the ultimate heat sink remains available.

The predictive performance of a path-dependent exotic-option credit risk model in the emerging market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Dar-Hsin; Chou, Heng-Chih; Wang, David; Zaabar, Rim

2011-06-01

Most empirical research of the path-dependent, exotic-option credit risk model focuses on developed markets. Taking Taiwan as an example, this study investigates the bankruptcy prediction performance of the path-dependent, barrier option model in the emerging market. We adopt Duan's (1994) [11], (2000) [12] transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method to directly estimate the unobserved model parameters, and compare the predictive ability of the barrier option model to the commonly adopted credit risk model, Merton's model. Our empirical findings show that the barrier option model is more powerful than Merton's model in predicting bankruptcy in the emerging market. Moreover, we find that the barrier option model predicts bankruptcy much better for highly-leveraged firms. Finally, our findings indicate that the prediction accuracy of the credit risk model can be improved by higher asset liquidity and greater financial transparency.

Inflationary tensor perturbations after BICEP2.

PubMed

Caligiuri, Jerod; Kosowsky, Arthur

2014-05-16

The measurement of B-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background at large angular scales by the BICEP experiment suggests a stochastic gravitational wave background from early-Universe inflation with a surprisingly large amplitude. The power spectrum of these tensor perturbations can be probed both with further measurements of the microwave background polarization at smaller scales and also directly via interferometry in space. We show that sufficiently sensitive high-resolution B-mode measurements will ultimately have the ability to test the inflationary consistency relation between the amplitude and spectrum of the tensor perturbations, confirming their inflationary origin. Additionally, a precise B-mode measurement of the tensor spectrum will predict the tensor amplitude on solar system scales to 20% accuracy for an exact power-law tensor spectrum, so a direct detection will then measure the running of the tensor spectral index to high precision.

Fluctuating pressures in flow fields of jets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schroeder, J. C.; Haviland, J. K.

1976-01-01

The powered lift configurations under present development for STOL aircraft are the externally blown flap (EBF), involving direct jet impingement on the aircraft flaps, and the upper surface blown (USB), where the jet flow is attached on the upper surface of the wing and directed downwards. Towards the goal of developing scaling laws to predict unsteady loads imposed on the structural components of these STOL aircraft from small model tests, the near field fluctuating pressure behavior for the simplified cases of a round free cold jet and the same jet impinging on a flat plate was investigated. Examples are given of coherences, phase lags (giving convection velocities), and overall fluctuating pressure levels measured. The fluctuating pressure levels measured on the flat plate are compared to surface fluctuating pressure levels measured on full-scale powered-lift configuration models.

Predictability of action sub-steps modulates motor system activation during the observation of goal-directed actions.

PubMed

Braukmann, Ricarda; Bekkering, Harold; Hidding, Margreeth; Poljac, Edita; Buitelaar, Jan K; Hunnius, Sabine

2017-08-01

Action perception and execution are linked in the human motor system, and researchers have proposed that this action-observation matching system underlies our ability to predict observed behavior. If the motor system is indeed involved in the generation of action predictions, activation should be modulated by the degree of predictability of an observed action. This study used EEG and eye-tracking to investigate whether and how predictability of an observed action modulates motor system activation as well as behavioral predictions in the form of anticipatory eye-movements. Participants were presented with object-directed actions (e.g., making a cup of tea) consisting of three action steps which increased in their predictability. While the goal of the first step was ambiguous (e.g., when making tea, one can first grab the teabag or the cup), the goals of the following steps became predictable over the course of the action. Motor system activation was assessed by measuring attenuation of sensorimotor mu- and beta-oscillations. We found that mu- and beta-power were attenuated during observation, indicating general activation of the motor system. Importantly, predictive motor system activation, indexed by beta-band attenuation, increased for each action step, showing strongest activation prior to the final (i.e. most predictable) step. Sensorimotor activity was related to participants' predictive eye-movements which also showed a modulation by action step. Our results demonstrate that motor system activity and behavioral predictions become stronger for more predictable action steps. The functional roles of sensorimotor oscillations in predicting other's actions are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improvement of short-term numerical wind predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedard, Joel

Geophysic Model Output Statistics (GMOS) are developed to optimize the use of NWP for complex sites. GMOS differs from other MOS that are widely used by meteorological centers in the following aspects: it takes into account the surrounding geophysical parameters such as surface roughness, terrain height, etc., along with wind direction; it can be directly applied without any training, although training will further improve the results. The GMOS was applied to improve the Environment Canada GEM-LAM 2.5km forecasts at North Cape (PEI, Canada): It improves the predictions RMSE by 25-30% for all time horizons and almost all meteorological conditions; the topographic signature of the forecast error due to insufficient grid refinement is eliminated and the NWP combined with GMOS outperform the persistence from a 2h horizon, instead of 4h without GMOS. Finally, GMOS was applied at another site (Bouctouche, NB, Canada): similar improvements were observed, thus showing its general applicability. Keywords: wind energy, wind power forecast, numerical weather prediction, complex sites, model output statistics

Extended Fitts' model of pointing time in eye-gaze input system - Incorporating effects of target shape and movement direction into modeling.

PubMed

Murata, Atsuo; Fukunaga, Daichi

2018-04-01

This study attempted to investigate the effects of the target shape and the movement direction on the pointing time using an eye-gaze input system and extend Fitts' model so that these factors are incorporated into the model and the predictive power of Fitts' model is enhanced. The target shape, the target size, the movement distance, and the direction of target presentation were set as within-subject experimental variables. The target shape included: a circle, and rectangles with an aspect ratio of 1:1, 1:2, 1:3, and 1:4. The movement direction included eight directions: upper, lower, left, right, upper left, upper right, lower left, and lower right. On the basis of the data for identifying the effects of the target shape and the movement direction on the pointing time, an attempt was made to develop a generalized and extended Fitts' model that took into account the movement direction and the target shape. As a result, the generalized and extended model was found to fit better to the experimental data, and be more effective for predicting the pointing time for a variety of human-computer interaction (HCI) task using an eye-gaze input system. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Medium-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wenfeng; Bao, Fangmin; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Mao, Yubin; Wang, Jiangbo; Liu, Junhui

2018-06-01

Electric demand forecasting is a basic work to ensure the safe operation of power system. Based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this paper introduces Prognoz Platform 7.2 intelligent adaptive modeling platform, and constructs the economic electricity transmission model that considers the economic development scenarios and the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure to predict the region's annual electricity demand, and the accurate prediction of the whole society's electricity consumption is realized. Firstly, based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this dissertation attempts to find the economic indicator variables that drive the most economical growth of electricity consumption and availability, and build an annual regional macroeconomic forecast model that takes into account the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure. Secondly, it innovatively put forward the economic electricity directed conduction theory and constructed the economic power transfer function to realize the group forecast of the primary industry + rural residents living electricity consumption, urban residents living electricity, the second industry electricity consumption, the tertiary industry electricity consumption; By comparing with the actual value of economy and electricity in Henan province in 2016, the validity of EETM model is proved, and the electricity consumption of the whole province from 2017 to 2018 is predicted finally.

Frontal Theta Reflects Uncertainty and Unexpectedness during Exploration and Exploitation

PubMed Central

Figueroa, Christina M.; Cohen, Michael X; Frank, Michael J.

2012-01-01

In order to understand the exploitation/exploration trade-off in reinforcement learning, previous theoretical and empirical accounts have suggested that increased uncertainty may precede the decision to explore an alternative option. To date, the neural mechanisms that support the strategic application of uncertainty-driven exploration remain underspecified. In this study, electroencephalography (EEG) was used to assess trial-to-trial dynamics relevant to exploration and exploitation. Theta-band activities over middle and lateral frontal areas have previously been implicated in EEG studies of reinforcement learning and strategic control. It was hypothesized that these areas may interact during top-down strategic behavioral control involved in exploratory choices. Here, we used a dynamic reward–learning task and an associated mathematical model that predicted individual response times. This reinforcement-learning model generated value-based prediction errors and trial-by-trial estimates of exploration as a function of uncertainty. Mid-frontal theta power correlated with unsigned prediction error, although negative prediction errors had greater power overall. Trial-to-trial variations in response-locked frontal theta were linearly related to relative uncertainty and were larger in individuals who used uncertainty to guide exploration. This finding suggests that theta-band activities reflect prefrontal-directed strategic control during exploratory choices. PMID:22120491

Overview of condition monitoring and operation control of electric power conversion systems in direct-drive wind turbines under faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shoudao; Wu, Xuan; Liu, Xiao; Gao, Jian; He, Yunze

2017-09-01

Electric power conversion system (EPCS), which consists of a generator and power converter, is one of the most important subsystems in a direct-drive wind turbine (DD-WT). However, this component accounts for the most failures (approximately 60% of the total number) in the entire DD-WT system according to statistical data. To improve the reliability of EPCSs and reduce the operation and maintenance cost of DD-WTs, numerous researchers have studied condition monitoring (CM) and fault diagnostics (FD). Numerous CM and FD techniques, which have respective advantages and disadvantages, have emerged. This paper provides an overview of the CM, FD, and operation control of EPCSs in DD-WTs under faults. After introducing the functional principle and structure of EPCS, this survey discusses the common failures in wind generators and power converters; briefly reviewed CM and FD methods and operation control of these generators and power converters under faults; and discussed the grid voltage faults related to EPCSs in DD-WTs. These theories and their related technical concepts are systematically discussed. Finally, predicted development trends are presented. The paper provides a valuable reference for developing service quality evaluation methods and fault operation control systems to achieve high-performance and high-intelligence DD-WTs.

The Minimum-Mass Surface Density of the Solar Nebula using the Disk Evolution Equation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Sanford S.

2005-01-01

The Hayashi minimum-mass power law representation of the pre-solar nebula (Hayashi 1981, Prog. Theo. Phys.70,35) is revisited using analytic solutions of the disk evolution equation. A new cumulative-planetary-mass-model (an integrated form of the surface density) is shown to predict a smoother surface density compared with methods based on direct estimates of surface density from planetary data. First, a best-fit transcendental function is applied directly to the cumulative planetary mass data with the surface density obtained by direct differentiation. Next a solution to the time-dependent disk evolution equation is parametrically adapted to the planetary data. The latter model indicates a decay rate of r -1/2 in the inner disk followed by a rapid decay which results in a sharper outer boundary than predicted by the minimum mass model. The model is shown to be a good approximation to the finite-size early Solar Nebula and by extension to extra solar protoplanetary disks.

Endocrine and aggressive responses to competition are moderated by contest outcome, gender, individual versus team competition, and implicit motives

PubMed Central

Oxford, Jon K.; Tiedtke, Johanna M.; Ossmann, Anna; Özbe, Dominik

2017-01-01

This study examined hormonal responses to competition in relation to gender, social context, and implicit motives. Participants (N = 326) were randomly assigned to win or lose in a 10-round, virtual face-to-face competition, in same-sex individual- and team-competition contexts. Saliva samples, taken before and twice after the competition, were assayed for testosterone (T), estradiol (E), progesterone (P), and cortisol (C). Implicit needs for power (nPower) and affiliation (nAffiliation) were assessed with a picture-story exercise before the competition. Aggression was measured via the volume at which participants set noise blasts for their opponents. Men competing individually and women competing as teams showed similar T increases after winning. C was differentially associated with outcome in the team matches, with higher post-match cortisol for winning women, and an opposite effect for male teams. Analyses including implicit motives indicated that situational variables interacted with motivational needs in shaping hormonal responses to competition: in naturally cycling women, nPower predicted T increases after winning and T and E decreases after losing. In men, nPower predicted T increases after losing and decreases after winning. In male teams, nPower predicted C increases after losing, but not after winning, whereas in individual competitions, nPower was a general negative predictor of C changes in women. nAffiliation predicted P increases for women competing as teams, and P decreases for women competing individually. Aggression was higher in men, losers, and teams than in women, winners, and individuals. High aggression was associated with high baseline C in women competing individually and with low baseline C and C decreases in women competing as teams and in men generally. Our findings suggest that while situational and gender factors play a role in hormonal responses to competition, they also depend on their interplay with motivational factors. They also suggest that while aggression is strongly affected by situational factors in the context of a competition, it has no direct association with motivational and hormonal correlates of dominance (nPower, T, E) and instead is associated with (mostly) low levels of C. PMID:28750061

Feasibility of large-scale power plants based on thermoelectric effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Liping

2014-12-01

Heat resources of small temperature difference are easily accessible, free and enormous on the Earth. Thermoelectric effects provide the technology for converting these heat resources directly into electricity. We present designs for electricity generators based on thermoelectric effects that utilize heat resources of small temperature difference, e.g., ocean water at different depths and geothermal resources, and conclude that large-scale power plants based on thermoelectric effects are feasible and economically competitive. The key observation is that the power factor of thermoelectric materials, unlike the figure of merit, can be improved by orders of magnitude upon laminating good conductors and good thermoelectric materials. The predicted large-scale power generators based on thermoelectric effects, if validated, will have the advantages of the scalability, renewability, and free supply of heat resources of small temperature difference on the Earth.

Generating optimal control simulations of musculoskeletal movement using OpenSim and MATLAB.

PubMed

Lee, Leng-Feng; Umberger, Brian R

2016-01-01

Computer modeling, simulation and optimization are powerful tools that have seen increased use in biomechanics research. Dynamic optimizations can be categorized as either data-tracking or predictive problems. The data-tracking approach has been used extensively to address human movement problems of clinical relevance. The predictive approach also holds great promise, but has seen limited use in clinical applications. Enhanced software tools would facilitate the application of predictive musculoskeletal simulations to clinically-relevant research. The open-source software OpenSim provides tools for generating tracking simulations but not predictive simulations. However, OpenSim includes an extensive application programming interface that permits extending its capabilities with scripting languages such as MATLAB. In the work presented here, we combine the computational tools provided by MATLAB with the musculoskeletal modeling capabilities of OpenSim to create a framework for generating predictive simulations of musculoskeletal movement based on direct collocation optimal control techniques. In many cases, the direct collocation approach can be used to solve optimal control problems considerably faster than traditional shooting methods. Cyclical and discrete movement problems were solved using a simple 1 degree of freedom musculoskeletal model and a model of the human lower limb, respectively. The problems could be solved in reasonable amounts of time (several seconds to 1-2 hours) using the open-source IPOPT solver. The problems could also be solved using the fmincon solver that is included with MATLAB, but the computation times were excessively long for all but the smallest of problems. The performance advantage for IPOPT was derived primarily by exploiting sparsity in the constraints Jacobian. The framework presented here provides a powerful and flexible approach for generating optimal control simulations of musculoskeletal movement using OpenSim and MATLAB. This should allow researchers to more readily use predictive simulation as a tool to address clinical conditions that limit human mobility.

Generating optimal control simulations of musculoskeletal movement using OpenSim and MATLAB

PubMed Central

Lee, Leng-Feng

2016-01-01

Computer modeling, simulation and optimization are powerful tools that have seen increased use in biomechanics research. Dynamic optimizations can be categorized as either data-tracking or predictive problems. The data-tracking approach has been used extensively to address human movement problems of clinical relevance. The predictive approach also holds great promise, but has seen limited use in clinical applications. Enhanced software tools would facilitate the application of predictive musculoskeletal simulations to clinically-relevant research. The open-source software OpenSim provides tools for generating tracking simulations but not predictive simulations. However, OpenSim includes an extensive application programming interface that permits extending its capabilities with scripting languages such as MATLAB. In the work presented here, we combine the computational tools provided by MATLAB with the musculoskeletal modeling capabilities of OpenSim to create a framework for generating predictive simulations of musculoskeletal movement based on direct collocation optimal control techniques. In many cases, the direct collocation approach can be used to solve optimal control problems considerably faster than traditional shooting methods. Cyclical and discrete movement problems were solved using a simple 1 degree of freedom musculoskeletal model and a model of the human lower limb, respectively. The problems could be solved in reasonable amounts of time (several seconds to 1–2 hours) using the open-source IPOPT solver. The problems could also be solved using the fmincon solver that is included with MATLAB, but the computation times were excessively long for all but the smallest of problems. The performance advantage for IPOPT was derived primarily by exploiting sparsity in the constraints Jacobian. The framework presented here provides a powerful and flexible approach for generating optimal control simulations of musculoskeletal movement using OpenSim and MATLAB. This should allow researchers to more readily use predictive simulation as a tool to address clinical conditions that limit human mobility. PMID:26835184

Very-short-term wind power prediction by a hybrid model with single- and multi-step approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

Very-short-term wind power prediction (VSTWPP) has played an essential role for the operation of electric power systems. This paper aims at improving and applying a hybrid method of VSTWPP based on historical data. The hybrid method is combined by multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), which is intended for reducing prediction errors. The predicted values are obtained through two sub-processes:1) transform the time-series data of actual wind power into the power ratio, and then predict the power ratio;2) use the predicted power ratio to predict the wind power. Besides, the proposed method can include two prediction approaches: single-step prediction (SSP) and multi-step prediction (MSP). WPP is tested comparatively by auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model from the predicted values and errors. The validity of the proposed hybrid method is confirmed in terms of error analysis by using probability density function (PDF), mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and means square error (MSE). Meanwhile, comparison of the correlation coefficients between the actual values and the predicted values for different prediction times and window has confirmed that MSP approach by using the hybrid model is the most accurate while comparing to SSP approach and ARMA. The MLR&LS is accurate and promising for solving problems in WPP.

Overview of free-piston Stirling engine technology for space power application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slaby, Jack G.

1987-01-01

An overview is presented of free-piston Stirling engine activities, directed toward space power applications. One of the major elements of the program is the development of advanced power conversion. Under this program the status of the 25 kWe opposed-piston Space Power Demonstrator Engine (SPDE) is presented. Initial differences between predicted and experimental power outputs and power output influenced by variations in regenerators are discussed. Technology work was conducted on heat-exchanger concepts to minimize the number of joints as well as to enhance the heat transfer in the heater. Design parameters and conceptual design features are also presented for a 25 kWe, single-cylinder free-piston Stirling space power converter. Projections are made for future space power requirements over the next few decades along with a recommendation to consider the use of dynamic power conversion systems, either solar or nuclear. A cursory comparison is presented showing the mass benefits of a Stirling system over a Brayton system for the same peak temperature and output power. A description of a study to investigate the feasibility of scaling a single-cylinder free-piston Stirling space power module to the 150 kWe power range is presented.

Seasonal thermoregulatory responses in mammals.

PubMed

Lovegrove, Barry G

2005-05-01

This study examined the proportional seasonal winter adjustments of total and mass-specific basal power (watts and watts g-1, respectively), thermal conductance (watts g-1 degrees C-1), non-shivering thermogenesis capacity (ratio of NST/basal power), body temperature ( degrees C), and body mass (g) of mammals. The responses are best summarized for three different body size classes; small mammals (<100 g), intermediate-sized mammals (0.1-10 kg), and large mammals (>10 kg). The principal adjustments of the small mammals center on energy conservation, especially the Dehnel Effect, the winter reduction in body size of as much as 50%, accompanied by reductions in mass-specific basal power. On average, these reductions reduce the total basal power approximately in direct proportion to the mass reductions. Reductions in mass-specific basal power are matched by concomitant reductions in conductance to maintain the setpoint body temperature during winter. The overall thermoregulatory adjustments in small mammals serve to (a) lower overall winter power consumption, (b) maintain the setpoint body temperature, and (c) lower the lower critical limit of thermoneutrality and hence thermoregulatory costs. In intermediate-size mammals, the seasonal response is centered more on increasing thermogenic capacity by increasing basal power and NST capacity, accompanied by predictable and large reductions in conductance. The Dehnel effect is negligible. Very large mammals undergo the largest reductions in total and mass-specific basal power and conductance. However, there are too few data to resolve whether the reductions in total basal power can be attributed to the Dehnel effect, because the moderate decreases in body mass may also be caused by nutritional stress. Apart from the seasonal changes in basal power, these observations are consistent with the predictions of Heldmaier's seasonal acclimatization model.

Abundance matters: a field experiment testing the more individuals hypothesis for richness–productivity relationships

PubMed Central

Yee, D. A.; Juliano, S. A.

2007-01-01

The more individuals hypothesis (MIH) postulates that productivity increases species richness by increasing mean equilibrium population size, thereby reducing the probability of local extinction. We tested the MIH for invertebrates colonizing microcosms that simulated tree holes by manipulating productivity through additions of leaf or animal detritus and subsequently determining the relationships among richness, total abundance, abundance per species, and measures of productivity. We quantified productivity as the rate of microorganism protein synthesis, microorganism metabolic rate, nutrient ion concentration, and type and amount of detritus. Microcosms with animal detritus attracted more species, more individuals per species, and more total individuals than did microcosms with similar amounts of leaf detritus. Relationships between richness or abundance and productivity varied with date. Richness in June increased as a linear function of productivity, whereas the power function predicted by the MIH fit best in July. Abundance in June and July was best described by a power function of productivity, but the linear function predicted by the MIH fit best in September. Abundance per species was best described by a power function of productivity in June and July. Path analysis showed that the indirect effect of productivity through abundance on richness that is predicted by MIH was important in all months, and that direct links between productivity and richness were unnecessary. Our results support many of the predictions of the MIH, but they also suggest that the effects of abundance on richness may be more complex than expected. PMID:17401581

Information-theoretic approach to interactive learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Still, S.

2009-01-01

The principles of statistical mechanics and information theory play an important role in learning and have inspired both theory and the design of numerous machine learning algorithms. The new aspect in this paper is a focus on integrating feedback from the learner. A quantitative approach to interactive learning and adaptive behavior is proposed, integrating model- and decision-making into one theoretical framework. This paper follows simple principles by requiring that the observer's world model and action policy should result in maximal predictive power at minimal complexity. Classes of optimal action policies and of optimal models are derived from an objective function that reflects this trade-off between prediction and complexity. The resulting optimal models then summarize, at different levels of abstraction, the process's causal organization in the presence of the learner's actions. A fundamental consequence of the proposed principle is that the learner's optimal action policies balance exploration and control as an emerging property. Interestingly, the explorative component is present in the absence of policy randomness, i.e. in the optimal deterministic behavior. This is a direct result of requiring maximal predictive power in the presence of feedback.

Social power, conflict policing, and the role of subordination signals in rhesus macaque society

PubMed Central

Beisner, Brianne A.; Hannibal, Darcy L.; Finn, Kelly R.; Fushing, Hsieh; McCowan, Brenda

2017-01-01

Objectives Policing is a conflict-limiting mechanism observed in many primate species. It is thought to require a skewed distribution of social power for some individuals to have sufficiently high social power to stop others’ fights, yet social power has not been examined in most species with policing behavior. We examined networks of subordination signals as a source of social power that permits policing behavior in rhesus macaques. Materials and Methods For each of seven captive groups of rhesus macaques, we (a) examined the structure of subordination signal networks and used GLMs to examine the relationship between (b) pairwise dominance certainty and subordination network pathways and (c) policing frequency and social power (group-level convergence in subordination signaling pathways). Results Networks of subordination signals had perfect linear transitivity, and pairs connected by both direct and indirect pathways of signals had more certain dominance relationships than pairs with no such network connection. Social power calculated using both direct and indirect network pathways showed a heavy-tailed distribution and positively predicted conflict policing. Conclusions Our results empirically substantiate that subordination signaling is associated with greater dominance relationship certainty and further show that pairs who signal rarely (or not at all) may use information from others’ signaling interactions to infer or reaffirm the relative certainty of their own relationships. We argue that the network of formal dominance relationships is central to societal stability because it is important for relationship stability and also supports the additional stabilizing mechanism of policing. PMID:26801956

Social power, conflict policing, and the role of subordination signals in rhesus macaque society.

PubMed

Beisner, Brianne A; Hannibal, Darcy L; Finn, Kelly R; Fushing, Hsieh; McCowan, Brenda

2016-05-01

Policing is a conflict-limiting mechanism observed in many primate species. It is thought to require a skewed distribution of social power for some individuals to have sufficiently high social power to stop others' fights, yet social power has not been examined in most species with policing behavior. We examined networks of subordination signals as a source of social power that permits policing behavior in rhesus macaques. For each of seven captive groups of rhesus macaques, we (a) examined the structure of subordination signal networks and used GLMs to examine the relationship between (b) pairwise dominance certainty and subordination network pathways and (c) policing frequency and social power (group-level convergence in subordination signaling pathways). Networks of subordination signals had perfect linear transitivity, and pairs connected by both direct and indirect pathways of signals had more certain dominance relationships than pairs with no such network connection. Social power calculated using both direct and indirect network pathways showed a heavy-tailed distribution and positively predicted conflict policing. Our results empirically substantiate that subordination signaling is associated with greater dominance relationship certainty and further show that pairs who signal rarely (or not at all) may use information from others' signaling interactions to infer or reaffirm the relative certainty of their own relationships. We argue that the network of formal dominance relationships is central to societal stability because it is important for relationship stability and also supports the additional stabilizing mechanism of policing. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The effects of power, leadership and psychological safety on resident event reporting.

PubMed

Appelbaum, Nital P; Dow, Alan; Mazmanian, Paul E; Jundt, Dustin K; Appelbaum, Eric N

2016-03-01

Although the reporting of adverse events is a necessary first step in identifying and addressing lapses in patient safety, such events are under-reported, especially by frontline providers such as resident physicians. This study describes and tests relationships between power distance and leader inclusiveness on psychological safety and the willingness of residents to report adverse events. A total of 106 resident physicians from the departments of neurosurgery, orthopaedic surgery, emergency medicine, otolaryngology, neurology, obstetrics and gynaecology, paediatrics and general surgery in a mid-Atlantic teaching hospital were asked to complete a survey on psychological safety, perceived power distance, leader inclusiveness and intention to report adverse events. Perceived power distance (β = -0.26, standard error [SE] 0.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.37 to 0.15; p < 0.001) and leader inclusiveness (β = 0.51; SE 0.07, 95% CI 0.38-0.65; p < 0.001) both significantly predicted psychological safety, which, in turn, significantly predicted intention to report adverse events (β = 0.34; SE 0.08, 95% CI 0.18-0.49; p < 0.001). Psychological safety significantly mediated the direct relationship between power distance and intention to report adverse events (indirect effect: -0.09; SE 0.02, 95% CI -0.13 to 0.04; p < 0.001). Psychological safety also significantly mediated the direct relationship between leader inclusiveness and intention to report adverse events (indirect effect: 0.17; SE 0.02, 95% CI 0.08-0.27; p = 0.001). Psychological safety was found to be a predictor of intention to report adverse events. Perceived power distance and leader inclusiveness both influenced the reporting of adverse events through the concept of psychological safety. Because adverse event reporting is shaped by relationships and culture external to the individual, it should be viewed as an organisational as much as a personal function. Supervisors and other leaders in health care should ensure that policies, procedures and leadership practices build psychological safety and minimise power distance between low- and high-status members in order to support greater reporting of adverse events. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Numerical calculations of non-inductive current driven by microwaves in JET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirov, K. K.; Baranov, Yu; Mailloux, J.; Nave, M. F. F.; Contributors, JET

2016-12-01

Recent studies at JET focus on analysis of the lower hybrid (LH) wave power absorption and current drive (CD) calculations by means of a new ray tracing (RT)/Fokker-Planck (FP) package. The RT code works in real 2D geometry accounting for the plasma boundary and the launcher shape. LH waves with different parallel refractive index, {{N}\\parallel} , spectra in poloidal direction can be launched thus simulating authentic antenna spectrum with rows fed by different combinations of klystrons. Various FP solvers were tested most advanced of which is a relativistic bounce averaged FP code. LH wave power deposition profiles from the new RT/FP code were compared to the experimental results from electron cyclotron emission (ECE) analysis of pulses at 3.4 T low and high density. This kind of direct comparison between power deposition profiles from experimental ECE data and numerical model were carried out for the first time for waves in the LH range of frequencies. The results were in a reasonable agreement with experimental data at lower density, line averaged values of {{n}\\text{e}}≈ 2.4× {{10}19} {{\\text{m}}-3} . At higher density, {{n}\\text{e}}≈ 3× {{10}19} {{\\text{m}}-3} , the code predicted larger on-axis LH power deposition, which is inconsistent with the experimental observations. Both calculations were unable to produce LH wave absorption at the plasma periphery, which contradicts to the analysis of the ECE data and possible sources of these discrepancies have been briefly discussed in the paper. The code was also used to calculate the LH power deposition and CD profiles for the low-density preheat phase of JET’s advanced tokamak (AT) scenario. It was found that as the density evolves from hollow to flat and then to a more peaked profile the LH power and driven current move inward i.e. towards the plasma axis. A total driven current of about 70 kA for 1 MW of launched LH power was predicted in these conditions.

Statistical aspects of radiogenomics: can radiogenomics models be used to aid prediction of outcomes in cancer patients?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Boya; Mazurowski, Maciej A.

2017-03-01

Radiogenomics is a new direction in cancer research that aims at identifying the relationship between tumor genomics and its appearance in imaging (i.e. its radiophenotype). Recent years brought multiple radiogenomic discoveries in brain, breast, lung, and other cancers. With development of this new field we believe that it important to investigate in which setting radiogenomics could be useful to better direct research effort. One of the general applications of radiogenomics is to generate imaging-based models for prediction of outcomes and doing so through modeling the relationship between imaging and genomics and the relationship between genomics and outcomes. We believe that this is an important potential application of radiogenomic as it could advance imaging-based precision medicine. We show a preliminary simulation study evaluation whether such approach results in improved models. We investigate different setting in terms of the strengths of the radiogenomic relationship, prognostic power of the imaging and genomic descriptors, and availability and quality of data. Our experiments indicated that the following parameters have impact on usefulness of the radiogenomic approach: predictive power of genomic features and imaging features, strength of the radiogenomic relationship as well as number and follow up time for the genomic data. Overall, we found that there are some situations in which radiogenomics approach is beneficial but only when the radiogenomic relationship is strong and low number of imaging cases with outcomes data are available.

A Comparison of the Performance of Advanced Statistical Techniques for the Refinement of Day-ahead and Longer NWP-based Wind Power Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zack, J. W.

2015-12-01

Predictions from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are the foundation for wind power forecasts for day-ahead and longer forecast horizons. The NWP models directly produce three-dimensional wind forecasts on their respective computational grids. These can be interpolated to the location and time of interest. However, these direct predictions typically contain significant systematic errors ("biases"). This is due to a variety of factors including the limited space-time resolution of the NWP models and shortcomings in the model's representation of physical processes. It has become common practice to attempt to improve the raw NWP forecasts by statistically adjusting them through a procedure that is widely known as Model Output Statistics (MOS). The challenge is to identify complex patterns of systematic errors and then use this knowledge to adjust the NWP predictions. The MOS-based improvements are the basis for much of the value added by commercial wind power forecast providers. There are an enormous number of statistical approaches that can be used to generate the MOS adjustments to the raw NWP forecasts. In order to obtain insight into the potential value of some of the newer and more sophisticated statistical techniques often referred to as "machine learning methods" a MOS-method comparison experiment has been performed for wind power generation facilities in 6 wind resource areas of California. The underlying NWP models that provided the raw forecasts were the two primary operational models of the US National Weather Service: the GFS and NAM models. The focus was on 1- and 2-day ahead forecasts of the hourly wind-based generation. The statistical methods evaluated included: (1) screening multiple linear regression, which served as a baseline method, (2) artificial neural networks, (3) a decision-tree approach called random forests, (4) gradient boosted regression based upon an decision-tree algorithm, (5) support vector regression and (6) analog ensemble, which is a case-matching scheme. The presentation will provide (1) an overview of each method and the experimental design, (2) performance comparisons based on standard metrics such as bias, MAE and RMSE, (3) a summary of the performance characteristics of each approach and (4) a preview of further experiments to be conducted.

Sound-diffracting flap in the ear of a bat generates spatial information.

PubMed

Müller, Rolf; Lu, Hongwang; Buck, John R

2008-03-14

Sound diffraction by the mammalian ear generates source-direction information. We have obtained an immediate quantification of this information from numerical predictions. We demonstrate the power of our approach by showing that a small flap in a bat's pinna generates useful information over a large set of directions in a central band of frequencies: presence of the flap more than doubled the solid angle with direction information above a given threshold. From the workings of the employed information measure, the Cramér-Rao lower bound, we can explain how physical shape is linked to sensory information via a strong sidelobe with frequency-dependent orientation in the directivity pattern. This method could be applied to any other mammal species with pinnae to quantify the relative importance of pinna structures' contributions to directional information and to facilitate interspecific comparisons of pinna directivity patterns.

Maternal behavior predicts infant neurophysiological and behavioral attention processes in the first year.

PubMed

Swingler, Margaret M; Perry, Nicole B; Calkins, Susan D; Bell, Martha Ann

2017-01-01

We apply a biopsychosocial conceptualization to attention development in the 1st year and examine the role of neurophysiological and social processes on the development of early attention processes. We tested whether maternal behavior measured during 2 mother-child interaction tasks when infants (N = 388) were 5 months predicted infant medial frontal (F3/F4) EEG power and observed attention behavior during an attention task at 10 months. After controlling for infant attention behavior and EEG power in the same task measured at an earlier 5-month time point, results indicated a significant direct and positive association from 5-month maternal positive affect to infant attention behavior at 10 months. However, maternal positive affect was not related to medial frontal EEG power. In contrast, 5-month maternal intrusive behavior was associated with infants' task-related EEG power change at the left frontal location, F3, at 10 months of age. The test of indirect effects from 5-month maternal intrusiveness to 10-month infant attention behavior via infants' EEG power change at F3 was significant. These findings suggest that the development of neural networks serving attention processes may be 1 mechanism through which early maternal behavior is related to infant attention development in the 1st year and that intrusive maternal behavior may have a particularly disruptive effect on this process. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Validation of finite element and boundary element methods for predicting structural vibration and radiated noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seybert, A. F.; Wu, X. F.; Oswald, Fred B.

1992-01-01

Analytical and experimental validation of methods to predict structural vibration and radiated noise are presented. A rectangular box excited by a mechanical shaker was used as a vibrating structure. Combined finite element method (FEM) and boundary element method (BEM) models of the apparatus were used to predict the noise radiated from the box. The FEM was used to predict the vibration, and the surface vibration was used as input to the BEM to predict the sound intensity and sound power. Vibration predicted by the FEM model was validated by experimental modal analysis. Noise predicted by the BEM was validated by sound intensity measurements. Three types of results are presented for the total radiated sound power: (1) sound power predicted by the BEM modeling using vibration data measured on the surface of the box; (2) sound power predicted by the FEM/BEM model; and (3) sound power measured by a sound intensity scan. The sound power predicted from the BEM model using measured vibration data yields an excellent prediction of radiated noise. The sound power predicted by the combined FEM/BEM model also gives a good prediction of radiated noise except for a shift of the natural frequencies that are due to limitations in the FEM model.

Secondary traumatic stress among domestic violence advocates: workplace risk and protective factors.

PubMed

Slattery, Suzanne M; Goodman, Lisa A

2009-11-01

This study identified workplace factors associated with secondary traumatic stress (STS) in a sample of 148 domestic violence advocates working in diverse settings. Findings indicate that coworker support and quality clinical supervision are critical to emotional well-being and that an environment in which there is shared power-that is, respect for diversity, mutuality, and consensual decision making-provides better protection for advocates than more traditional, hierarchical organizational models. Furthermore, shared power emerged as the only workplace variable to significantly predict STS above and beyond individual factors. The discussion includes implications for practice and policy as well as directions for future research.

Solar Stirling power generation - Systems analysis and preliminary tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selcuk, M. K.; Wu, Y.-C.; Moynihan, P. I.; Day, F. D., III

1977-01-01

The feasibility of an electric power generation system utilizing a sun-tracking parabolic concentrator and a Stirling engine/linear alternator is being evaluated. Performance predictions and cost analysis of a proposed large distributed system are discussed. Design details and preliminary test results are presented for a 9.5 ft diameter parabolic dish at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (Caltech) Table Mountain Test Facility. Low temperature calorimetric measurements were conducted to evaluate the concentrator performance, and a helium flow system is being used to test the solar receiver at anticipated working fluid temperatures (up to 650 or 1200 C) to evaluate the receiver thermal performance. The receiver body is designed to adapt to a free-piston Stirling engine which powers a linear alternator assembly for direct electric power generation. During the next phase of the program, experiments with an engine and receiver integrated into the concentrator assembly are planned.

Univariate Time Series Prediction of Solar Power Using a Hybrid Wavelet-ARMA-NARX Prediction Method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nazaripouya, Hamidreza; Wang, Yubo; Chu, Chi-Cheng

This paper proposes a new hybrid method for super short-term solar power prediction. Solar output power usually has a complex, nonstationary, and nonlinear characteristic due to intermittent and time varying behavior of solar radiance. In addition, solar power dynamics is fast and is inertia less. An accurate super short-time prediction is required to compensate for the fluctuations and reduce the impact of solar power penetration on the power system. The objective is to predict one step-ahead solar power generation based only on historical solar power time series data. The proposed method incorporates discrete wavelet transform (DWT), Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA)more » models, and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), while the RNN architecture is based on Nonlinear Auto-Regressive models with eXogenous inputs (NARX). The wavelet transform is utilized to decompose the solar power time series into a set of richer-behaved forming series for prediction. ARMA model is employed as a linear predictor while NARX is used as a nonlinear pattern recognition tool to estimate and compensate the error of wavelet-ARMA prediction. The proposed method is applied to the data captured from UCLA solar PV panels and the results are compared with some of the common and most recent solar power prediction methods. The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and show a considerable improvement in the prediction precision.« less

Load Forecasting Based Distribution System Network Reconfiguration -- A Distributed Data-Driven Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Huaiguang; Zhang, Yingchen; Muljadi, Eduard

In this paper, a short-term load forecasting approach based network reconfiguration is proposed in a parallel manner. Specifically, a support vector regression (SVR) based short-term load forecasting approach is designed to provide an accurate load prediction and benefit the network reconfiguration. Because of the nonconvexity of the three-phase balanced optimal power flow, a second-order cone program (SOCP) based approach is used to relax the optimal power flow problem. Then, the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is used to compute the optimal power flow in distributed manner. Considering the limited number of the switches and the increasing computation capability, themore » proposed network reconfiguration is solved in a parallel way. The numerical results demonstrate the feasible and effectiveness of the proposed approach.« less

Towards a direct measurement of vacuum magnetic birefringence: PVLAS achievements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Della Valle, F.; Di Domenico, G.; Gastaldi, U.; Milotti, E.; Pengo, R.; Ruoso, G.; Zavattini, G.

2010-11-01

Nonlinear effects in vacuum have been predicted but never observed yet directly. The PVLAS collaboration has long been working on an apparatus aimed at detecting such effects by measuring vacuum magnetic birefringence. Unfortunately the sensitivity has been affected by unaccounted noise and systematics since the beginning. A new small prototype ellipsometer has been designed and characterized at the Department of Physics of the University of Ferrara, Italy entirely mounted on a single seismically isolated optical bench. With a finesse F = 414,000 and a cavity length L = 0.5 m we have reached the sensitivity of ψ=2ṡ101/√{Hz} given the laser power at the output of the ellipsometer of P = 24 mW. This record result, very close to the predicted limit, demonstrates the feasibility of reaching such sensitivities, and opens the way to designing a dedicated apparatus for a first detection of vacuum magnetic birefringence.

Two Dimensional Finite Element Analysis for the Effect of a Pressure Wave in the Human Brain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponce L., Ernesto; Ponce S., Daniel

2008-11-01

Brain injuries in people of all ages is a serious, world-wide health problem, with consequences as varied as attention or memory deficits, difficulties in problem-solving, aggressive social behavior, and neuro degenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's. Brain injuries can be the result of a direct impact, but also pressure waves and direct impulses. The aim of this work is to develop a predictive method to calculate the stress generated in the human brain by pressure waves such as high power sounds. The finite element method is used, combined with elastic wave theory. The predictions of the generated stress levels are compared with the resistance of the arterioles that pervade the brain. The problem was focused to the Chilean mining where there are some accidents happen by detonations and high sound level. There are not formal medical investigation, however these pressure waves could produce human brain damage.

Wide-Area Traffic Management for Cloud Services

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-01

performance prediction tools [11], which are usually load oblivious. Therefore, without information about link loads and capacities, a CDN may direct...powerful tool . DONAR allows its customers to dictate a replica’s (i) split weight, wi, the desired proportion of requests that a particular replica i...Diagnostic Tool (NDT) [100], which is used for the Federal Communication Commission’s Consumer Broadband Test, and NPAD [101]—are more closely integrated with

Flight-determined stability and control characteristics of the M2-F3 lifting body vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sim, A. G.

1973-01-01

Flight data were obtained over a Mach number range from 0.4 to 1.55 and an angle-of-attack range from -2 deg to 16 deg. Lateral-directional and longitudinal derivatives, reaction control rocket effectiveness, and longitudinal trim information obtained from flight data and wind-tunnel predictions are compared. The effects of power, configuration change, and speed brake are discussed.

Time-Dependent Traveling Wave Tube Model for Intersymbol Interference Investigations

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-06-01

band is 5.7 degrees. C. Differences between broadband and single-tone excitations The TWT characteristics are compared when excited by single-tones...direct description of the effects of the TWT on modulated digital signals. The TWT model comprehensively takes into account the effects of frequency...of the high power amplifier and the operational digital signal. This method promises superior predictive fidelity compared to methods using TWT

Multiple scattering corrections to the Beer-Lambert law. 1: Open detector.

PubMed

Tam, W G; Zardecki, A

1982-07-01

Multiple scattering corrections to the Beer-Lambert law are analyzed by means of a rigorous small-angle solution to the radiative transfer equation. Transmission functions for predicting the received radiant power-a directly measured quantity in contrast to the spectral radiance in the Beer-Lambert law-are derived. Numerical algorithms and results relating to the multiple scattering effects for laser propagation in fog, cloud, and rain are presented.

Optimal Parameter Selection for Support Vector Machine Based on Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm: A Case Study of Grid-Connected PV System Power Prediction.

PubMed

Gao, Xiang-Ming; Yang, Shi-Feng; Pan, San-Bo

2017-01-01

Predicting the output power of photovoltaic system with nonstationarity and randomness, an output power prediction model for grid-connected PV systems is proposed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized with an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. First, according to the weather forecast data sets on the prediction date, the time series data of output power on a similar day with 15-minute intervals are built. Second, the time series data of the output power are decomposed into a series of components, including some intrinsic mode components IMFn and a trend component Res, at different scales using EMD. The corresponding SVM prediction model is established for each IMF component and trend component, and the SVM model parameters are optimized with the artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of each model are reconstructed, and the predicted values of the output power of the grid-connected PV system can be obtained. The prediction model is tested with actual data, and the results show that the power prediction model based on the EMD and ABC-SVM has a faster calculation speed and higher prediction accuracy than do the single SVM prediction model and the EMD-SVM prediction model without optimization.

Optimal Parameter Selection for Support Vector Machine Based on Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm: A Case Study of Grid-Connected PV System Power Prediction

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Predicting the output power of photovoltaic system with nonstationarity and randomness, an output power prediction model for grid-connected PV systems is proposed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized with an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. First, according to the weather forecast data sets on the prediction date, the time series data of output power on a similar day with 15-minute intervals are built. Second, the time series data of the output power are decomposed into a series of components, including some intrinsic mode components IMFn and a trend component Res, at different scales using EMD. The corresponding SVM prediction model is established for each IMF component and trend component, and the SVM model parameters are optimized with the artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of each model are reconstructed, and the predicted values of the output power of the grid-connected PV system can be obtained. The prediction model is tested with actual data, and the results show that the power prediction model based on the EMD and ABC-SVM has a faster calculation speed and higher prediction accuracy than do the single SVM prediction model and the EMD-SVM prediction model without optimization. PMID:28912803

Foreign Direct Investment and Energy Supply in the Middle East and North Africa: A Correlational Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elghali, Siddig

Middle East and North Africa countries have been criticized for failing to utilize foreign direct investment energy resources efficiently. The changing of energy resources environment of the past decades with its growing emphasis on the importance of imminent energy supply challenges require strategists to consider different types of energy resources investment to improve energy supply. One type of energy investment will show effectiveness and efficiency in utilizing foreign direct investment in exposing RE, fossil fuels, natural gas, and reducing CO2 emissions. The purpose of this quantitative correlational study was to utilize foreign direct investment to predict total primary energy supply in the Middle East and North Africa region between 1971 and 2013. The study was conducted using a sample size of 43 years of energy supply resources and foreign direct investment from 1971 to 2013, which includes all of the years for which FDI is available. RE potential may equip Middle East and North Africa countries with sustainable and clean electricity for centuries to come, as non-renewable energy resources may not meet the demands globally and domestically or environmentally. As demands for fossil fuels grow, carbon emissions will increase. RE may be a better option of CO 2 emissions sequestration and will increase electricity to rural areas without government subsidies and complex decision-making policies. RE infrastructure will reduce water desalinization costs, cooling systems, and be useful in heating. Establishing concentrated solar power may be useful for the region cooperation, negotiations, and integration to share this energy. The alternative sought to fossil fuels was nuclear power. However, nuclear power depends on depleting, non-renewable uranium resources. The cost of uranium will increase if widely used and the presence of a nuclear plant in an unstable region is unsafe. Thus, renewable energy as a long-term option is efficient. A nonlinear regression analysis performed to test the foreign direct investment and energy supply predictor variables with the control variables relate to renewable energy resources, fossil fuels, natural gas, nuclear energy, and CO2 emissions. FDI to predict the total primary energy supply in the MENA region between 1971 and 2013. The predictor variable was FDI evaluated for all years between 1971 and 2013. The criterion variables were total primary energy supply from four distinct sources: fossil fuels (including crude oil, natural gas liquid, and refinery feedstocks); natural gas; renewables and waste; and electricity. The results of the nonlinear regression supported FDI inflow was significantly predictive of the total primary energy supply in the Middle East between 1971 and 2013. A future quantitative study could examine FDI and Energy Supply in the MENA for strategic energy and investment policies indicators. Significant prediction between FDI and energy supply should serve as a red flag to researchers and cause them to research further. The study outlines steps that could be followed in making a determination whether selected FDI were consistent with energy data, which would then suggest the need for further FDI and energy supply investigation.

Radar observations of density gradients, electric fields, and plasma irregularities near polar cap patches in the context of the gradient-drift instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamarche, Leslie J.; Makarevich, Roman A.

2017-03-01

We present observations of plasma density gradients, electric fields, and small-scale plasma irregularities near a polar cap patch made by the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network radar at Rankin Inlet (RKN) and the northern face of Resolute Bay Incoherent Scatter Radar (RISR-N). RKN echo power and occurrence are analyzed in the context of gradient-drift instability (GDI) theory, with a particular focus on the previously uninvestigated 2-D dependencies on wave propagation, electric field, and gradient vectors, with the latter two quantities evaluated directly from RISR-N measurements. It is shown that higher gradient and electric field components along the wave vector generally lead to the higher observed echo occurrence, which is consistent with the expected higher GDI growth rate, but the relationship with echo power is far less straightforward. The RKN echo power increases monotonically as the predicted linear growth rate approaches zero from negative values but does not continue this trend into positive growth rate values, in contrast with GDI predictions. The observed greater consistency of echo occurrence with GDI predictions suggests that GDI operating in the linear regime can control basic plasma structuring, but measured echo strength may be affected by other processes and factors, such as multistep or nonlinear processes or a shear-driven instability.

Migrants, health, and happiness: Evidence that health assessments travel with migrants and predict well-being.

PubMed

Ljunge, Martin

2016-09-01

Health assessments correlate with health outcomes and subjective well-being. Immigrants offer an opportunity to study persistent social influences on health where the social conditions are not endogenous to individual outcomes. This approach provides a clear direction of causality from social conditions to health, and in a second stage to well-being. Natives and immigrants from across the world residing in 30 European countries are studied using survey data. The paper applies within country analysis using both linear regressions and two stage least squares. Natives' and immigrants' individual characteristics have similar predictive power for health, except Muslim immigrants who experience a sizeable health penalty. Average health reports in the immigrant's birth country have a significant association with the immigrant's current health. Almost a quarter of the birth country health variation is brought by the immigrants, while conditioning on socioeconomic characteristics. There is no evidence of the birth country predictive power declining neither as the immigrant spends more time in the residence country nor over the life course. The second stage estimates indicate that a one standard deviation improvement in health predicts higher happiness by 1.72 point or 0.82 of a standard deviation, more than four times the happiness difference of changing employment status from unemployed to employed. Studying life satisfaction yields similar results. Health improvements predict substantial increases in individual happiness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new solar power output prediction based on hybrid forecast engine and decomposition model.

PubMed

Zhang, Weijiang; Dang, Hongshe; Simoes, Rolando

2018-06-12

Regarding to the growing trend of photovoltaic (PV) energy as a clean energy source in electrical networks and its uncertain nature, PV energy prediction has been proposed by researchers in recent decades. This problem is directly effects on operation in power network while, due to high volatility of this signal, an accurate prediction model is demanded. A new prediction model based on Hilbert Huang transform (HHT) and integration of improved empirical mode decomposition (IEMD) with feature selection and forecast engine is presented in this paper. The proposed approach is divided into three main sections. In the first section, the signal is decomposed by the proposed IEMD as an accurate decomposition tool. To increase the accuracy of the proposed method, a new interpolation method has been used instead of cubic spline curve (CSC) fitting in EMD. Then the obtained output is entered into the new feature selection procedure to choose the best candidate inputs. Finally, the signal is predicted by a hybrid forecast engine composed of support vector regression (SVR) based on an intelligent algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed approach has been verified over a number of real-world engineering test cases in comparison with other well-known models. The obtained results prove the validity of the proposed method. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Selenide isotope generator for the Galileo mission. SIG/Galileo contract compliance power prediction technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hammel, T.E.; Srinivas, V.

1978-11-01

This initial definition of the power degradation prediction technique outlines a model for predicting SIG/Galileo mean EOM power using component test data and data from a module power degradation demonstration test program. (LCL)

An approach to adjustment of relativistic mean field model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayram, Tuncay; Akkoyun, Serkan

2017-09-01

The Relativistic Mean Field (RMF) model with a small number of adjusted parameters is powerful tool for correct predictions of various ground-state nuclear properties of nuclei. Its success for describing nuclear properties of nuclei is directly related with adjustment of its parameters by using experimental data. In the present study, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method which mimics brain functionality has been employed for improvement of the RMF model parameters. In particular, the understanding capability of the ANN method for relations between the RMF model parameters and their predictions for binding energies (BEs) of 58Ni and 208Pb have been found in agreement with the literature values.

Performance Prediction and Validation: Data, Frameworks, and Considerations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tinnesand, Heidi

2017-05-19

Improving the predictability and reliability of wind power generation and operations will reduce costs and potentially establish a framework to attract new capital into the distributed wind sector, a key cost reduction requirement highlighted in results from the distributed wind future market assessment conducted with dWind. Quantifying and refining the accuracy of project performance estimates will also directly address several of the key challenges identified by industry stakeholders in 2015 as part of the distributed wind resource assessment workshop and be cross-cutting for several other facets of the distributed wind portfolio. This presentation covers the efforts undertaken in 2016 tomore » address these topics.« less

Validation of the kinetic-turbulent-neoclassical theory for edge intrinsic rotation in DIII-D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashourvan, Arash; Grierson, B. A.; Battaglia, D. J.; Haskey, S. R.; Stoltzfus-Dueck, T.

2018-05-01

In a recent kinetic model of edge main-ion (deuterium) toroidal velocity, intrinsic rotation results from neoclassical orbits in an inhomogeneous turbulent field [T. Stoltzfus-Dueck, Phys. Rev. Lett. 108, 065002 (2012)]. This model predicts a value for the toroidal velocity that is co-current for a typical inboard X-point plasma at the core-edge boundary (ρ ˜ 0.9). Using this model, the velocity prediction is tested on the DIII-D tokamak for a database of L-mode and H-mode plasmas with nominally low neutral beam torque, including both signs of plasma current. Values for the flux-surface-averaged main-ion rotation velocity in the database are obtained from the impurity carbon rotation by analytically calculating the main-ion—impurity neoclassical offset. The deuterium rotation obtained in this manner has been validated by direct main-ion measurements for a limited number of cases. Key theoretical parameters of ion temperature and turbulent scale length are varied across a wide range in an experimental database of discharges. Using a characteristic electron temperature scale length as a proxy for a turbulent scale length, the predicted main-ion rotation velocity has a general agreement with the experimental measurements for neutral beam injection (NBI) powers in the range PNBI < 4 MW. At higher NBI power, the experimental rotation is observed to saturate and even degrade compared to theory. TRANSP-NUBEAM simulations performed for the database show that for discharges with nominally balanced—but high powered—NBI, the net injected torque through the edge can exceed 1 Nm in the counter-current direction. The theory model has been extended to compute the rotation degradation from this counter-current NBI torque by solving a reduced momentum evolution equation for the edge and found the revised velocity prediction to be in agreement with experiment. Using the theory modeled—and now tested—velocity to predict the bulk plasma rotation opens up a path to more confidently projecting the confinement and stability in ITER.

Neuroeconomics and public health

PubMed Central

Larsen, Torben

2010-01-01

Objective To design an economic evaluation strategy for general health promotion projects. Method Identification of key parameters of behavioral health from neuroeconomic studies. Results The Frontal Power of Concentration (C) is a quadripartite executive integrator depending on four key parameters: 1) The Limbic system originating ambivalent emotions (L). 2) Volition in the Prefrontal Cortex (c) controlling cognitive prediction and emotions with a view on Frontopolar long-term goals. 3) Semantic memories in the Temporal lobe (R). 4) An intuitive visuospatial sketchpad in the Parietal lobe (I). C aiming to minimize error between preferences and predictions is directly determined by the following equation including I as a stochastic knowledge component: C =Rc2/L +εI→ 1 Discussion All of the parameters of C are object to improvement by training: Cognitive predictions are improved by open-mindedness towards feedback (R).The effect of emotional regrets is reinforced by an appropriate level of fitness (c, L).Our imagination may be unfolded by in-depth-relaxation-procedures and visualization (I). Conclusion Economic evaluation of general public health should focus on the subset of separate and integrated interventions that directly affect the parameters of Formula C in individuals.

Quantitative prediction of drug side effects based on drug-related features.

PubMed

Niu, Yanqing; Zhang, Wen

2017-09-01

Unexpected side effects of drugs are great concern in the drug development, and the identification of side effects is an important task. Recently, machine learning methods are proposed to predict the presence or absence of interested side effects for drugs, but it is difficult to make the accurate prediction for all of them. In this paper, we transform side effect profiles of drugs as their quantitative scores, by summing up their side effects with weights. The quantitative scores may measure the dangers of drugs, and thus help to compare the risk of different drugs. Here, we attempt to predict quantitative scores of drugs, namely the quantitative prediction. Specifically, we explore a variety of drug-related features and evaluate their discriminative powers for the quantitative prediction. Then, we consider several feature combination strategies (direct combination, average scoring ensemble combination) to integrate three informative features: chemical substructures, targets, and treatment indications. Finally, the average scoring ensemble model which produces the better performances is used as the final quantitative prediction model. Since weights for side effects are empirical values, we randomly generate different weights in the simulation experiments. The experimental results show that the quantitative method is robust to different weights, and produces satisfying results. Although other state-of-the-art methods cannot make the quantitative prediction directly, the prediction results can be transformed as the quantitative scores. By indirect comparison, the proposed method produces much better results than benchmark methods in the quantitative prediction. In conclusion, the proposed method is promising for the quantitative prediction of side effects, which may work cooperatively with existing state-of-the-art methods to reveal dangers of drugs.

Predicting the performance of a power amplifier using large-signal circuit simulations of an AlGaN/GaN HFET model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilbro, Griff L.; Hou, Danqiong; Yin, Hong; Trew, Robert J.

2009-02-01

We have quantitatively modeled the conduction current and charge storage of an HFET in terms its physical dimensions and material properties. For DC or small-signal RF operation, no adjustable parameters are necessary to predict the terminal characteristics of the device. Linear performance measures such as small-signal gain and input admittance can be predicted directly from the geometric structure and material properties assumed for the device design. We have validated our model at low-frequency against experimental I-V measurements and against two-dimensional device simulations. We discuss our recent extension of our model to include a larger class of electron velocity-field curves. We also discuss the recent reformulation of our model to facilitate its implementation in commercial large-signal high-frequency circuit simulators. Large signal RF operation is more complex. First, the highest CW microwave power is fundamentally bounded by a brief, reversible channel breakdown in each RF cycle. Second, the highest experimental measurements of efficiency, power, or linearity always require harmonic load pull and possibly also harmonic source pull. Presently, our model accounts for these facts with an adjustable breakdown voltage and with adjustable load impedances and source impedances for the fundamental frequency and its harmonics. This has allowed us to validate our model for large signal RF conditions by simultaneously fitting experimental measurements of output power, gain, and power added efficiency of real devices. We show that the resulting model can be used to compare alternative device designs in terms of their large signal performance, such as their output power at 1dB gain compression or their third order intercept points. In addition, the model provides insight into new device physics features enabled by the unprecedented current and voltage levels of AlGaN/GaN HFETs, including non-ohmic resistance in the source access regions and partial depletion of the 2DEG in the drain access region.

Power load prediction based on GM (1,1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Di

2017-05-01

Currently, Chinese power load prediction is highly focused; the paper deeply studies grey prediction and applies it to Chinese electricity consumption during the recent 14 years; through after-test test, it obtains grey prediction which has good adaptability to medium and long-term power load.

Effect of accuracy of wind power prediction on power system operator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schlueter, R. A.; Sigari, G.; Costi, T.

1985-01-01

This research project proposed a modified unit commitment that schedules connection and disconnection of generating units in response to load. A modified generation control is also proposed that controls steam units under automatic generation control, fast responding diesels, gas turbines and hydro units under a feedforward control, and wind turbine array output under a closed loop array control. This modified generation control and unit commitment require prediction of trend wind power variation one hour ahead and the prediction of error in this trend wind power prediction one half hour ahead. An improved meter for predicting trend wind speed variation is developed. Methods for accurately simulating the wind array power from a limited number of wind speed prediction records was developed. Finally, two methods for predicting the error in the trend wind power prediction were developed. This research provides a foundation for testing and evaluating the modified unit commitment and generation control that was developed to maintain operating reliability at a greatly reduced overall production cost for utilities with wind generation capacity.

Predicting multi-level drug response with gene expression profile in multiple myeloma using hierarchical ordinal regression.

PubMed

Zhang, Xinyan; Li, Bingzong; Han, Huiying; Song, Sha; Xu, Hongxia; Hong, Yating; Yi, Nengjun; Zhuang, Wenzhuo

2018-05-10

Multiple myeloma (MM), like other cancers, is caused by the accumulation of genetic abnormalities. Heterogeneity exists in the patients' response to treatments, for example, bortezomib. This urges efforts to identify biomarkers from numerous molecular features and build predictive models for identifying patients that can benefit from a certain treatment scheme. However, previous studies treated the multi-level ordinal drug response as a binary response where only responsive and non-responsive groups are considered. It is desirable to directly analyze the multi-level drug response, rather than combining the response to two groups. In this study, we present a novel method to identify significantly associated biomarkers and then develop ordinal genomic classifier using the hierarchical ordinal logistic model. The proposed hierarchical ordinal logistic model employs the heavy-tailed Cauchy prior on the coefficients and is fitted by an efficient quasi-Newton algorithm. We apply our hierarchical ordinal regression approach to analyze two publicly available datasets for MM with five-level drug response and numerous gene expression measures. Our results show that our method is able to identify genes associated with the multi-level drug response and to generate powerful predictive models for predicting the multi-level response. The proposed method allows us to jointly fit numerous correlated predictors and thus build efficient models for predicting the multi-level drug response. The predictive model for the multi-level drug response can be more informative than the previous approaches. Thus, the proposed approach provides a powerful tool for predicting multi-level drug response and has important impact on cancer studies.

Direction selective structural-acoustic coupled radiator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Hee-Seon; Kim, Yang-Hann

2005-04-01

This paper presents a method of designing a structural-acoustic coupled radiator that can emit sound in the desired direction. The structural-acoustic coupled system is consisted of acoustic spaces and wall. The wall composes two plates and an opening, and the wall separates one space that is highly reverberant and the other that is unbounded without any reflection. An equation is developed that predicts energy distribution and energy flow in the two spaces separated by the wall, and its computational examples are presented including near field acoustic characteristics. To design the directional coupled radiator, Pareto optimization method is adapted. An objective is selected to maximize radiation power on a main axis and minimize a side lobe level and a subjective is selected direction of the main axis and dimensions of the walls geometry. Pressure and intensity distribution of the designed radiator is also presented.

Entertainment-education and recruitment of cornea donors: the role of emotion and issue involvement.

PubMed

Bae, Hyuhn-Suhck

2008-01-01

This study examined the role of emotional responses and viewer's level of issue involvement to an entertainment-education show about cornea donation in order to predict intention to register as cornea donors. Results confirmed that sympathy and empathy responses operated as a catalyst for issue involvement, which emerged as an important intermediary in the persuasion process. Issue involvement also was found to be a common causal antecedent of attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control, the last two of which predict intentions unlike attitude, which does not. The revised path model confirmed that involvement directly influences intention. The findings of this study suggest that adding emotion and involvement in the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) enhances the explanatory power of the theory in predicting intentions, which indicates the possibility of combining the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) and the TPB in the prediction of human behaviors.

The Scientific Foundations of Forecasting Magnetospheric Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eastwood, J. P.; Nakamura, R.; Turc, L.; Mejnertsen, L.; Hesse, M.

2017-11-01

The magnetosphere is the lens through which solar space weather phenomena are focused and directed towards the Earth. In particular, the non-linear interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's magnetic field leads to the formation of highly inhomogenous electrical currents in the ionosphere which can ultimately result in damage to and problems with the operation of power distribution networks. Since electric power is the fundamental cornerstone of modern life, the interruption of power is the primary pathway by which space weather has impact on human activity and technology. Consequently, in the context of space weather, it is the ability to predict geomagnetic activity that is of key importance. This is usually stated in terms of geomagnetic storms, but we argue that in fact it is the substorm phenomenon which contains the crucial physics, and therefore prediction of substorm occurrence, severity and duration, either within the context of a longer-lasting geomagnetic storm, but potentially also as an isolated event, is of critical importance. Here we review the physics of the magnetosphere in the frame of space weather forecasting, focusing on recent results, current understanding, and an assessment of probable future developments.

Local Thermonuclear Runaways in Dwarf Novae?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shara, Michael

2012-10-01

We have no hope of understanding the structure and evolution of a class of astrophysical objects if we cannot identify the dominant energy source of those objects.The Disk Instability Model {DIM} postulates that Dwarf Nova {DN} outbursts are powered by runaway accretion from an accretion disk onto a White Dwarf {WD} in a red dwarf-WD mass transferring binary. Ominously, HST observations {e.g. Sion et al. 2001} of WD surface abundances hint at a significant shortcoming of the DIM. The data from the present proposal will be able to unequivocally demonstrate if the observed highly Carbon-depleted and Nitrogen-enhanced abundances on WD surfaces {NOT predicted by DIM} vary with binary orbital phase, or throughout a DN quiescence cycle, or from cycle to cycle. These same data will test if predicted {but never observed} Local Thermonuclear Runaways {"Nuclear-powered mini-novas"} occur on the WDs of DN. Such events could trigger or even power DN, providing the long-sought physical mechanism of DN eruptions that DIM lacks. As a "free" bonus, the same data may also directly detect the diffusion of accreted metals in a WD atmosphere for the first time, or provide significant limits on the diffusion rate.

Predicting High-Power Performance in Professional Cyclists.

PubMed

Sanders, Dajo; Heijboer, Mathieu; Akubat, Ibrahim; Meijer, Kenneth; Hesselink, Matthijs K

2017-03-01

To assess if short-duration (5 to ~300 s) high-power performance can accurately be predicted using the anaerobic power reserve (APR) model in professional cyclists. Data from 4 professional cyclists from a World Tour cycling team were used. Using the maximal aerobic power, sprint peak power output, and an exponential constant describing the decrement in power over time, a power-duration relationship was established for each participant. To test the predictive accuracy of the model, several all-out field trials of different durations were performed by each cyclist. The power output achieved during the all-out trials was compared with the predicted power output by the APR model. The power output predicted by the model showed very large to nearly perfect correlations to the actual power output obtained during the all-out trials for each cyclist (r = .88 ± .21, .92 ± .17, .95 ± .13, and .97 ± .09). Power output during the all-out trials remained within an average of 6.6% (53 W) of the predicted power output by the model. This preliminary pilot study presents 4 case studies on the applicability of the APR model in professional cyclists using a field-based approach. The decrement in all-out performance during high-intensity exercise seems to conform to a general relationship with a single exponential-decay model describing the decrement in power vs increasing duration. These results are in line with previous studies using the APR model to predict performance during brief all-out trials. Future research should evaluate the APR model with a larger sample size of elite cyclists.

Intertemporal consumption with directly measured welfare functions and subjective expectations

PubMed Central

Kapteyn, Arie; Kleinjans, Kristin J.; van Soest, Arthur

2010-01-01

Euler equation estimation of intertemporal consumption models requires many, often unverifiable assumptions. These include assumptions on expectations and preferences. We aim at reducing some of these requirements by using direct subjective information on respondents’ preferences and expectations. The results suggest that individually measured welfare functions and expectations have predictive power for the variation in consumption across households. Furthermore, estimates of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution based on the estimated welfare functions are plausible and of a similar order of magnitude as other estimates found in the literature. The model favored by the data only requires cross-section data for estimation. PMID:20442798

The Surface Density Distribution in the Solar Nebula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Sanford S.

2004-01-01

The commonly used minimum mass power law representation of the pre-solar nebula is reanalyzed using a new cumulative-mass-model. This model predicts a smoother surface density approximation compared with methods based on direct computation of surface density. The density is quantified using two independent analytical formulations. First, a best-fit transcendental function is applied directly to the basic planetary data. Next a solution to the time-dependent disk evolution equation is parametrically adapted to the solar nebula data. The latter model is shown to be a good approximation to the finite-size early Solar Nebula, and by extension to other extra solar protoplanetary disks.

Control of Vibratory Energy Harvesters in the Presence of Nonlinearities and Power-Flow Constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassidy, Ian L.

Over the past decade, a significant amount of research activity has been devoted to developing electromechanical systems that can convert ambient mechanical vibrations into usable electric power. Such systems, referred to as vibratory energy harvesters, have a number of useful of applications, ranging in scale from self-powered wireless sensors for structural health monitoring in bridges and buildings to energy harvesting from ocean waves. One of the most challenging aspects of this technology concerns the efficient extraction and transmission of power from transducer to storage. Maximizing the rate of power extraction from vibratory energy harvesters is further complicated by the stochastic nature of the disturbance. The primary purpose of this dissertation is to develop feedback control algorithms which optimize the average power generated from stochastically-excited vibratory energy harvesters. This dissertation will illustrate the performance of various controllers using two vibratory energy harvesting systems: an electromagnetic transducer embedded within a flexible structure, and a piezoelectric bimorph cantilever beam. Compared with piezoelectric systems, large-scale electromagnetic systems have received much less attention in the literature despite their ability to generate power at the watt--kilowatt scale. Motivated by this observation, the first part of this dissertation focuses on developing an experimentally validated predictive model of an actively controlled electromagnetic transducer. Following this experimental analysis, linear-quadratic-Gaussian control theory is used to compute unconstrained state feedback controllers for two ideal vibratory energy harvesting systems. This theory is then augmented to account for competing objectives, nonlinearities in the harvester dynamics, and non-quadratic transmission loss models in the electronics. In many vibratory energy harvesting applications, employing a bi-directional power electronic drive to actively control the harvester is infeasible due to the high levels of parasitic power required to operate the drive. For the case where a single-directional drive is used, a constraint on the directionality of power-flow is imposed on the system, which necessitates the use of nonlinear feedback. As such, a sub-optimal controller for power-flow-constrained vibratory energy harvesters is presented, which is analytically guaranteed to outperform the optimal static admittance controller. Finally, the last section of this dissertation explores a numerical approach to compute optimal discretized control manifolds for systems with power-flow constraints. Unlike the sub-optimal nonlinear controller, the numerical controller satisfies the necessary conditions for optimality by solving the stochastic Hamilton-Jacobi equation.

A 1987 overview of free-piston Stirling technology for space power application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slaby, Jack G.; Alger, Donald L.

1987-01-01

An overview is presented of the NASA Lewis Research Center free-piston Stirling engine activities directed toward space-power application. NASA Lewis serves as the project office to manage the newly initiated NASA SP-100 Advanced Technology Program. One of the major elements of this five-year program is the development of advanced power conversion concepts of which the Stirling cycle is a viable growth candidate. Under this program the status of the 25 kWe opposed-piston Space Power Demonstrator Engine (SPDE) is presented. Included in the SPDE discussion are comparisons between predicted and experimental engine performance, enhanced performance resulting from regenerator modification, increased operating stroke brought about by isolating the gas bearing flow between the displacer and power piston, identifying excessive energy losses and recommending corrective action, and a better understanding of linear alternator design and operation. Technology work is also conducted on heat exchanger concepts, both design and fabrication. Design parameters and conceptual design features are also presented for a 25 kWe, single-cylinder free-piston Stirling space-power converter.

Efficient Power-Transfer Capability Analysis of the TET System Using the Equivalent Small Parameter Method.

PubMed

Yanzhen Wu; Hu, A P; Budgett, D; Malpas, S C; Dissanayake, T

2011-06-01

Transcutaneous energy transfer (TET) enables the transfer of power across the skin without direct electrical connection. It is a mechanism for powering implantable devices for the lifetime of a patient. For maximum power transfer, it is essential that TET systems be resonant on both the primary and secondary sides, which requires considerable design effort. Consequently, a strong need exists for an efficient method to aid the design process. This paper presents an analytical technique appropriate to analyze complex TET systems. The system's steady-state solution in closed form with sufficient accuracy is obtained by employing the proposed equivalent small parameter method. It is shown that power-transfer capability can be correctly predicted without tedious iterative simulations or practical measurements. Furthermore, for TET systems utilizing a current-fed push-pull soft switching resonant converter, it is found that the maximum energy transfer does not occur when the primary and secondary resonant tanks are "tuned" to the nominal resonant frequency. An optimal turning point exists, corresponding to the system's maximum power-transfer capability when optimal tuning capacitors are applied.

An experimental study of windturbine noise from blade-tower wake interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcus, E. N.; Harris, W. L.

1983-04-01

A program of experiments has been conducted to study the impulsive noise of a horizontal axis windturbine. These tests were performed on a 1/53 scale model of the DOE-NASA MOD-1 windturbine. Experiments were performed in the M.I.T. 5 x 7-1/2 ft Anechoic Windtunnel Facility. The impulsive noise of a horizontal axis windturbine is observed to result from repeated blade passage through the mean velocity deficit induced in the lee of the windturbine support tower. The two factors which most influence this noise are rotation speed and tower drag coefficient. The intensity of noise from blade tower wake interaction is predicted to increase with the fourth power of the RPM and the second power of the tower drag coefficient. These predictions are confirmed in experiments. Further experiments are also presented in order to observe directionality of the acoustic field as well as the acoustic influence of tower shape and blade number.

Operator performance and localized muscle fatigue in a simulated space vehicle control task

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, J. L., Jr.

1979-01-01

Fourier transforms in a special purpose computer were utilized to obtain power spectral density functions from electromyograms of the biceps brachii, triceps brachii, brachioradialis, flexor carpi ulnaris, brachialis, and pronator teres in eight subjects performing isometric tracking tasks in two directions utilizing a prototype spacecraft rotational hand controller. Analysis of these spectra in general purpose computers aided in defining muscles involved in performing the task, and yielded a derived measure potentially useful in predicting task termination. The triceps was the only muscle to show significant differences in all possible tests for simple effects in both tasks and, overall, was the most consistently involved of the six muscles. The total power monitored for triceps, biceps, and brachialis dropped to minimal levels across all subjects earlier than for other muscles. However, smaller variances existed for the biceps, brachioradialis, brachialis, and flexor carpi ulnaris muscles and could provide longer predictive times due to smaller standard deviations for a greater population range.

Worldwide impact of aerosol's time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential.

PubMed

Ruiz-Arias, Jose A; Gueymard, Christian A; Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J; Pozo-Vázquez, David

2016-08-10

Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis.

Worldwide impact of aerosol’s time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential

PubMed Central

Ruiz-Arias, Jose A.; Gueymard, Christian A.; Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J.; Pozo-Vázquez, David

2016-01-01

Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis. PMID:27507711

Computations of Combustion-Powered Actuation for Dynamic Stall Suppression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jee, Solkeun; Bowles, Patrick O.; Matalanis, Claude G.; Min, Byung-Young; Wake, Brian E.; Crittenden, Tom; Glezer, Ari

2016-01-01

A computational framework for the simulation of dynamic stall suppression with combustion-powered actuation (COMPACT) is validated against wind tunnel experimental results on a VR-12 airfoil. COMPACT slots are located at 10% chord from the leading edge of the airfoil and directed tangentially along the suction-side surface. Helicopter rotor-relevant flow conditions are used in the study. A computationally efficient two-dimensional approach, based on unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS), is compared in detail against the baseline and the modified airfoil with COMPACT, using aerodynamic forces, pressure profiles, and flow-field data. The two-dimensional RANS approach predicts baseline static and dynamic stall very well. Most of the differences between the computational and experimental results are within two standard deviations of the experimental data. The current framework demonstrates an ability to predict COMPACT efficacy across the experimental dataset. Enhanced aerodynamic lift on the downstroke of the pitching cycle due to COMPACT is well predicted, and the cycleaveraged lift enhancement computed is within 3% of the test data. Differences with experimental data are discussed with a focus on three-dimensional features not included in the simulations and the limited computational model for COMPACT.

Swimming efficiency of bacterium Escherichia coli

PubMed Central

Chattopadhyay, Suddhashil; Moldovan, Radu; Yeung, Chuck; Wu, X. L.

2006-01-01

We use measurements of swimming bacteria in an optical trap to determine fundamental properties of bacterial propulsion. In particular, we directly measure the force required to hold the bacterium in the optical trap and determine the propulsion matrix, which relates the translational and angular velocity of the flagellum to the torques and forces propelling the bacterium. From the propulsion matrix, dynamical properties such as torques, swimming speed, and power can be obtained by measuring the angular velocity of the motor. We find significant heterogeneities among different individuals even though all bacteria started from a single colony. The propulsive efficiency, defined as the ratio of the propulsive power output to the rotary power input provided by the motors, is found to be ≈2%, which is consistent with the efficiency predicted theoretically for a rigid helical coil. PMID:16954194

Mitigation of multipacting, enhanced by gas condensation on the high power input coupler of a superconducting RF module, by comprehensive warm aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chaoen; Chang, Lung-Hai; Chang, Mei-Hsia; Chen, Ling-Jhen; Chung, Fu-Tsai; Lin, Ming-Chyuan; Liu, Zong-Kai; Lo, Chih-Hung; Tsai, Chi-Lin; Yeh, Meng-Shu; Yu, Tsung-Chi

2017-11-01

Excitation of multipacting, enhanced by gas condensation on cold surfaces of the high power input coupler in a SRF module poses the highest challenge for reliable SRF operation under high average RF power. This could prevent the light source SRF module from being operated with a desired high beam current. Off-line long-term reliability tests have been conducted for the newly constructed 500-MHz SRF KEKB type modules at an accelerating RF voltage of 1.6-MV to enable prediction of their operational reliability in the 3-GeV Taiwan Photon Source (TPS), since prediction from mere production performance by conventional horizontal test is presently unreliable. As expected, operational difficulties resulting from multipacting, enhanced by gas condensation, have been identified in the course of long-term reliability test. Our present hypothesis is that gas condensation can be slowed down by preserving the vacuum pressure at the power coupler close to that reached just after its cool down to liquid helium temperatures. This is achievable by reduction of the power coupler out-gassing rate through comprehensive warm aging. Its feasibility and effectiveness has been experimentally verified in a second long term reliability test. Our success opens the possibility to operate the SRF module free of multipacting trouble and opens a new direction to improve the operational performance of next generation SRF modules in light sources with high beam currents.

High energy density propulsion systems and small engine dynamometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hays, Thomas

2009-07-01

Scope and Method of Study. This study investigates all possible methods of powering small unmanned vehicles, provides reasoning for the propulsion system down select, and covers in detail the design and production of a dynamometer to confirm theoretical energy density calculations for small engines. Initial energy density calculations are based upon manufacturer data, pressure vessel theory, and ideal thermodynamic cycle efficiencies. Engine tests are conducted with a braking type dynamometer for constant load energy density tests, and show true energy densities in excess of 1400 WH/lb of fuel. Findings and Conclusions. Theory predicts lithium polymer, the present unmanned system energy storage device of choice, to have much lower energy densities than other conversion energy sources. Small engines designed for efficiency, instead of maximum power, would provide the most advantageous method for powering small unmanned vehicles because these engines have widely variable power output, loss of mass during flight, and generate rotational power directly. Theoretical predictions for the energy density of small engines has been verified through testing. Tested values up to 1400 WH/lb can be seen under proper operating conditions. The implementation of such a high energy density system will require a significant amount of follow-on design work to enable the engines to tolerate the higher temperatures of lean operation. Suggestions are proposed to enable a reliable, small-engine propulsion system in future work. Performance calculations show that a mature system is capable of month long flight times, and unrefueled circumnavigation of the globe.

Supporting Energy-Related Societal Applications Using NASA's Satellite and Modeling Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Whitlock, C. H.; Chandler, W. S.; Hoell, J. M.; Zhang, T.; Mikovitz, J. C.; Leng, G. S.; Lilienthal, P.

2006-01-01

Improvements to NASA Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) web site are now being made through the Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project under NASA Science Mission Directorate Applied Science Energy Management Program. The purpose of this project is to tailor NASA Science Mission results for energy sector applications and decision support systems. The current status of SSE and research towards upgrading estimates of total, direct and diffuse solar irradiance from NASA satellite measurements and analysis are discussed. Part of this work involves collaborating with partners such as the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Natural Resources Canada (NRCan). Energy Management and POWER plans including historic, near-term and forecast datasets are also overviewed.

Thermal optimization of second harmonic generation at high pump powers.

PubMed

Sahm, Alexander; Uebernickel, Mirko; Paschke, Katrin; Erbert, Götz; Tränkle, Günther

2011-11-07

We measure the temperature distribution of a 3 cm long periodically poled LiNbO₃ crystal in a single-pass second harmonic generation (SHG) setup at 488 nm. By means of three resistance heaters and directly mounted Pt100 sensors the crystal is subdivided in three sections. 9.4 W infrared pump light and 1.3 W of SHG light cause a de-homogenized temperature distribution of 0.2 K between the middle and back section. A sectional offset heating is used to homogenize the temperature in those two sections and thus increasing the conversion efficiency. A 15% higher SHG output power matching the prediction of our theoretical model is achieved.

A numerical investigation of a thermodielectric power generation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sklar, Akiva A.

The performance of a novel micro-thermodielectric power generation system was investigated in order to determine if thermodielectric power generation can be practically employed and if its performance can compete with current portable power generation technologies. Thermodielectric power generation is a direct energy conversion technology that converts heat directly into high voltage direct current. It requires dielectric (i.e., capacitive) materials whose charge storing capabilities are a function of temperature. This property can be exploited by heating these materials after they are charged; as their temperature increases, their charge storage capability decreases, forcing them to eject a portion of their surface charge. This ejected charge can then be supplied to an appropriate electronic storage device. There are several advantages associated with thermodielectric energy conversion; first, it requires heat addition at relatively low conventional power generation temperatures, i.e., less than 600 °K, and second, devices that utilize it have the potential for excellent power density and device reliability. The predominant disadvantage of using this power generation technique is that the device must operate in an unsteady manner; this can lead to substantial heat transfer losses that limit the device's thermal efficiency. The studied power generation system was designed so that the power generating components of the system (i.e., the thermodielectric materials) are integrated within a micro-scale heat exchange apparatus designed specifically to provide the thermodielectric materials with the unsteady heating and cooling necessary for efficient power generation. This apparatus is designed to utilize a liquid as a working fluid in order to maximize its heat transfer capabilities, minimize the size of the heat exchanger, and maximize the power density of the power generation system. The thermodielectric materials are operated through a power generation cycle that consists of four processes; the first process is a charging process, during which an electric field is applied to a thermodielectric material, causing it to acquire electrical charge on its surface (this process is analogous to the isentropic compression process of a Brayton cycle). The second process is a heating process in which the temperature of the dielectric material is increased via heat transfer from an external source. During this process, the thermodielectric material is forced to eject a portion of its surface charge because its charge storing capability decreases as the temperature increases; the ejected charge is intended for capture by external circuitry connected to the thermodielectric material, where it can be routed to an electrochemical storage device or an electromechanical device requiring high voltage direct current. The third process is a discharging process, during which the applied electric field is reduced to its initial strength (analogous to the isentropic expansion process of a Brayton cycle). The final process is a cooling process in which the temperature of the dielectric material is decreased via heat transfer from an external source, returning it to its initial temperature. Previously, predicting the performance of a thermodielectric power generator was hindered by a poor understanding of the material's thermodynamic properties and the effect unsteady heat transfer losses have on system performance. In order to improve predictive capabilities in this study, a thermodielectric equation of state was developed that relates the strength of the applied electric field, the amount of surface charge stored by the thermodielectric material, and its temperature. This state equation was then used to derive expressions for the material's thermodynamic states (internal energy, entropy), which were subsequently used to determine the optimum material properties for power generation. Next, a numerical simulation code was developed to determine the heat transfer capabilities of a micro-scale parallel plate heat recuperator (MPPHR), a device designed specifically to (a) provide the unsteady heating and cooling necessary for thermodielectric power generation and (b) minimize the unsteady heat transfer losses of the system. The simulation code was used to find the optimum heat transfer and heat recuperation regimes of the MPPHR. The previously derived thermodynamic equations that describe the behavior of the thermodielectric materials were then incorporated into the model for the walls of the parallel plate channel in the numerical simulation code, creating a tool capable of determining the thermodynamic performance of an MTDPG, in terms of the thermal efficiency, percent Carnot efficiency, and energy/power density. A detailed parameterization of the MTDPG with the simulation code yielded the critical non-dimensional numbers that determine the relationship between the heat exchange/recuperation abilities of the flow and the power generation capabilities of the thermodielectric materials. These relationships were subsequently used to optimize the performance of an MTDPG with an operating temperature range of 300--500 °K. The optimization predicted that the MTDPG could provide a thermal efficiency of 29.7 percent with the potential to reach 34 percent. These thermal efficiencies correspond to 74.2 and 85 percent of the Carnot efficiency, respectively. The power density of this MTDPG depends on the operating frequency and can exceed 1,000,000 W/m3.

Fluid mechanics of slurry flow through the grinding media in ball mills

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Songfack, P.K.; Rajamani, R.K.

1995-12-31

The slurry transport within the ball mill greatly influences the mill holdup, residence time, breakage rate, and hence the power draw and the particle size distribution of the mill product. However, residence-time distribution and holdup in industrial mills could not be predicted a priori. Indeed, it is impossible to determine the slurry loading in continuously operating mills by direct measurement, especially in industrial mills. In this paper, the slurry transport problem is solved using the principles of fluid mechanics. First, the motion of the ball charge and its expansion are predicted by a technique called discrete element method. Then themore » slurry flow through the porous ball charge is tackled with a fluid-flow technique called the marker and cell method. This may be the only numerical technique capable of tracking the slurry free surface as it fluctuates with the motion of the ball charge. The result is a prediction of the slurry profile in both the radial and axial directions. Hence, it leads to the detailed description of slurry mass and ball charge within the mill. The model predictions are verified with pilot-scale experimental work. This novel approach based on the physics of fluid flow is devoid of any empiricism. It is shown that the holdup of industrial mills at a given feed percent solids can be predicted successfully.« less

Doppler Feature Based Classification of Wind Profiler Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, Swati; Chandrasekhar Sarma, T. V.; Lourde. R, Mary

2017-01-01

Wind Profilers (WP) are coherent pulsed Doppler radars in UHF and VHF bands. They are used for vertical profiling of wind velocity and direction. This information is very useful for weather modeling, study of climatic patterns and weather prediction. Observations at different height and different wind velocities are possible by changing the operating parameters of WP. A set of Doppler power spectra is the standard form of WP data. Wind velocity, direction and wind velocity turbulence at different heights can be derived from it. Modern wind profilers operate for long duration and generate approximately 4 megabytes of data per hour. The radar data stream contains Doppler power spectra from different radar configurations with echoes from different atmospheric targets. In order to facilitate systematic study, this data needs to be segregated according the type of target. A reliable automated target classification technique is required to do this job. Classical techniques of radar target identification use pattern matching and minimization of mean squared error, Euclidean distance etc. These techniques are not effective for the classification of WP echoes, as these targets do not have well-defined signature in Doppler power spectra. This paper presents an effective target classification technique based on range-Doppler features.

Velocity model of the shallow lunar crust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gangi, A. F.

1980-01-01

The travel times of the seismic waves obtained for the Apollo-14 and -16 active seismic experiments and the Apollo-16 grenade launches are shown to be consistent with a powder-layer model of the shallow lunar crust. The velocity variation with depth determined from these data is: V(z) = approximately 110 z to the 1/6 power m/sec for z less than 10 meters and V(z) is nearly = to 250 m/sec for z greater than 10 meters. The velocity values found for the 10 meter depth are similar to those found by Kovach, et al. (1972). The z to the 1/6 power depth dependence for the velocity of the topmost layer is that predicted on the basis of a powder layer (Gangi, 1972). The Amplitude variation of the direct waves as a function of source-to-receiver separation, x, is A(x) = A(o)x to the -n power exp(-ax) where 1.5 n 2.2 and a is nearly = to 0.047 neper/m. Velocity-spectra analyses of the direct, surface-reflected, bottom-reflected and refracted waves give results that are consistent with the velocity model inferred from the traveltime data.

Frequency domain and full waveform time domain inversion of ground based magnetometer, electrometer and incoherent scattering radar arrays to image strongly heterogenous 3-D Earth structure, ionospheric structure, and to predict the intensity of GICs in the power grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, A.; Imamura, N.; Bonner, L. R., IV; Cosgrove, R. B.

2016-12-01

Ground-based magnetometer and electrometer arrays provide the means to probe the structure of the Earth's interior, the interactions of space weather with the ionosphere, and to anticipate the intensity of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in power grids. We present a local-to-continental scale view of a heterogeneous 3-D crust and mantle as determined from magnetotelluric (MT) observations across arrays of ground-based electric and magnetic field sensors. MT impedance tensors describe the relationship between electric and magnetic fields at a given site, thus implicitly they contain all known information on the 3-D electrical resistivity structure beneath and surrounding that site. By using multivariate transfer functions to project real-time magnetic observatory network data to areas surrounding electric power grids, and by projecting those magnetic fields through MT impedance tensors, the projected magnetic field can be transformed into predictions of electric fields along the path of the transmission lines, an essential element of predicting the intensity of GICs in the grid. Finally, we explore GICs, i.e. Earth-ionosphere coupling directly in the time-domain. We consider the fully coupled EM system, where we allow for a non-stationary ionospheric source field of arbitrary complexity above a 3-D Earth. We solve the simultaneous inverse problem for 3-D Earth conductivity and source field structure directly in the time domain. In the present work, we apply this method to magnetotelluric data obtained from a synchronously operating array of 25 MT stations that collected continuous MT waveform data in the interior of Alaska during the autumn and winter of 2015 under the footprint of the Poker Flat (Alaska) Incoherent Scattering Radar (PFISR). PFISR data yield functionals of the ionospheric electric field and ionospheric conductivity that constrain the MT source field. We show that in this region conventional robust MT processing methods struggle to produce reliable MT response functions at periods much greater than about 2,000 s, a consequence, we believe, of the complexity of the ionospheric source fields in this high latitude setting. This provides impetus for direct waveform inversion methods that dispense with typical parametric assumptions made about the MT source fields.

Predicting protein structures with a multiplayer online game.

PubMed

Cooper, Seth; Khatib, Firas; Treuille, Adrien; Barbero, Janos; Lee, Jeehyung; Beenen, Michael; Leaver-Fay, Andrew; Baker, David; Popović, Zoran; Players, Foldit

2010-08-05

People exert large amounts of problem-solving effort playing computer games. Simple image- and text-recognition tasks have been successfully 'crowd-sourced' through games, but it is not clear if more complex scientific problems can be solved with human-directed computing. Protein structure prediction is one such problem: locating the biologically relevant native conformation of a protein is a formidable computational challenge given the very large size of the search space. Here we describe Foldit, a multiplayer online game that engages non-scientists in solving hard prediction problems. Foldit players interact with protein structures using direct manipulation tools and user-friendly versions of algorithms from the Rosetta structure prediction methodology, while they compete and collaborate to optimize the computed energy. We show that top-ranked Foldit players excel at solving challenging structure refinement problems in which substantial backbone rearrangements are necessary to achieve the burial of hydrophobic residues. Players working collaboratively develop a rich assortment of new strategies and algorithms; unlike computational approaches, they explore not only the conformational space but also the space of possible search strategies. The integration of human visual problem-solving and strategy development capabilities with traditional computational algorithms through interactive multiplayer games is a powerful new approach to solving computationally-limited scientific problems.

Quantitative Assessment of Thermodynamic Constraints on the Solution Space of Genome-Scale Metabolic Models

PubMed Central

Hamilton, Joshua J.; Dwivedi, Vivek; Reed, Jennifer L.

2013-01-01

Constraint-based methods provide powerful computational techniques to allow understanding and prediction of cellular behavior. These methods rely on physiochemical constraints to eliminate infeasible behaviors from the space of available behaviors. One such constraint is thermodynamic feasibility, the requirement that intracellular flux distributions obey the laws of thermodynamics. The past decade has seen several constraint-based methods that interpret this constraint in different ways, including those that are limited to small networks, rely on predefined reaction directions, and/or neglect the relationship between reaction free energies and metabolite concentrations. In this work, we utilize one such approach, thermodynamics-based metabolic flux analysis (TMFA), to make genome-scale, quantitative predictions about metabolite concentrations and reaction free energies in the absence of prior knowledge of reaction directions, while accounting for uncertainties in thermodynamic estimates. We applied TMFA to a genome-scale network reconstruction of Escherichia coli and examined the effect of thermodynamic constraints on the flux space. We also assessed the predictive performance of TMFA against gene essentiality and quantitative metabolomics data, under both aerobic and anaerobic, and optimal and suboptimal growth conditions. Based on these results, we propose that TMFA is a useful tool for validating phenotypes and generating hypotheses, and that additional types of data and constraints can improve predictions of metabolite concentrations. PMID:23870272

Comparative Dietary Therapy Effectiveness in Remission of Pediatric Eosinophilic Esophagitis

PubMed Central

Henderson, Carol J.; Abonia, J. Pablo; King, Eileen C.; Putnam, Philip E.; Collins, Margaret H.; Franciosi, James P.; Rothenberg, Marc E.

2012-01-01

Background Eosinophilic esophagitis is a chronic, immune-mediated inflammatory disorder that responds to dietary therapy; however, data evaluating the effectiveness of dietary therapeutic strategies is limited. Objective This study compared the effectiveness of three frequently prescribed dietary therapies [elemental, six-food elimination, and skin prick and atopy patch-directed elimination] and assessed the remission predictability of skin tests and their utility in directing dietary planning. Methods A retrospective cohort of proton-pump inhibitor-unresponsive, non-glucocorticoid-treated eosinophilic esophagitis patients who had two consecutive endoscopic biopsies associated with dietary intervention was identified. Biopsy histology and remissions (< 15 eosinophils/high-power field) following dietary therapy and food reintroductions were evaluated. Results Ninety-eight of 513 patients met eligibility criteria. Of these 98, 50% (49), 27% (26), and 23% (23) received elemental, six-food elimination, and directed diets, respectively. Remission occurred in 96%, 81%, and 65% of patients on elemental, six-food elimination, and directed diets, respectively. The odds of post-diet remission vs. non-remission were 5.6-fold higher (P=0.05) on elemental vs. six-food elimination, 12.5-fold higher (P=0.003) on elemental vs. directed, and were not significantly different (P=0.22) on six-food elimination vs. directed diets. Following 116 single-food reintroductions, the negative predictive value of skin testing for remission was 40%–67% (milk 40%, egg 56%, soy 64%, and wheat 67%). Conclusion All three dietary therapies are effective; however, an elemental diet is superior at inducing histologic remission compared with six-food elimination and skin test-directed diets. Notably, an empiric six-food elimination diet is as effective as a skin test-directed diet. The negative predictive values of foods most commonly reintroduced in single-food challenges are not sufficient to support the development of dietary advancement plans solely based on skin tests. PMID:22541246

Local Fitness Landscapes Predict Yeast Evolutionary Dynamics in Directionally Changing Environments.

PubMed

Gorter, Florien A; Aarts, Mark G M; Zwaan, Bas J; de Visser, J Arjan G M

2018-01-01

The fitness landscape is a concept that is widely used for understanding and predicting evolutionary adaptation. The topography of the fitness landscape depends critically on the environment, with potentially far-reaching consequences for evolution under changing conditions. However, few studies have assessed directly how empirical fitness landscapes change across conditions, or validated the predicted consequences of such change. We previously evolved replicate yeast populations in the presence of either gradually increasing, or constant high, concentrations of the heavy metals cadmium (Cd), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn), and analyzed their phenotypic and genomic changes. Here, we reconstructed the local fitness landscapes underlying adaptation to each metal by deleting all repeatedly mutated genes both by themselves and in combination. Fitness assays revealed that the height, and/or shape, of each local fitness landscape changed considerably across metal concentrations, with distinct qualitative differences between unconditionally (Cd) and conditionally toxic metals (Ni and Zn). This change in topography had particularly crucial consequences in the case of Ni, where a substantial part of the individual mutational fitness effects changed in sign across concentrations. Based on the Ni landscape analyses, we made several predictions about which mutations had been selected when during the evolution experiment. Deep sequencing of population samples from different time points generally confirmed these predictions, demonstrating the power of landscape reconstruction analyses for understanding and ultimately predicting evolutionary dynamics, even under complex scenarios of environmental change. Copyright © 2018 by the Genetics Society of America.

Finite Control Set Model Predictive Control for Multiple Distributed Generators Microgrids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babqi, Abdulrahman Jamal

This dissertation proposes two control strategies for AC microgrids that consist of multiple distributed generators (DGs). The control strategies are valid for both grid-connected and islanded modes of operation. In general, microgrid can operate as a stand-alone system (i.e., islanded mode) or while it is connected to the utility grid (i.e., grid connected mode). To enhance the performance of a micrgorid, a sophisticated control scheme should be employed. The control strategies of microgrids can be divided into primary and secondary controls. The primary control regulates the output active and reactive powers of each DG in grid-connected mode as well as the output voltage and frequency of each DG in islanded mode. The secondary control is responsible for regulating the microgrid voltage and frequency in the islanded mode. Moreover, it provides power sharing schemes among the DGs. In other words, the secondary control specifies the set points (i.e. reference values) for the primary controllers. In this dissertation, Finite Control Set Model Predictive Control (FCS-MPC) was proposed for controlling microgrids. FCS-MPC was used as the primary controller to regulate the output power of each DG (in the grid-connected mode) or the voltage of the point of DG coupling (in the islanded mode of operation). In the grid-connected mode, Direct Power Model Predictive Control (DPMPC) was implemented to manage the power flow between each DG and the utility grid. In the islanded mode, Voltage Model Predictive Control (VMPC), as the primary control, and droop control, as the secondary control, were employed to control the output voltage of each DG and system frequency. The controller was equipped with a supplementary current limiting technique in order to limit the output current of each DG in abnormal incidents. The control approach also enabled smooth transition between the two modes. The performance of the control strategy was investigated and verified using PSCAD/EMTDC software platform. This dissertation also proposes a control and power sharing strategy for small-scale microgrids in both grid-connected and islanded modes based on centralized FCS-MPC. In grid-connected mode, the controller was capable of managing the output power of each DG and enabling flexible power regulation between the microgrid and the utility grid. In islanded mode, the controller regulated the microgrid voltage and frequency, and provided a precise power sharing scheme among the DGs. In addition, the power sharing can be adjusted flexibly by changing the sharing ratio. The proposed control also enabled plug-and-play operation. Moreover, a smooth transition between the two modes of operation was achieved without any disturbance in the system. Case studies were carried out in order to validate the proposed control strategy with the PSCAD/EMTDA software package.

Predicting contraceptive use from an egalitarian model of women's overall household power vis-à-vis conventional power models and third variables.

PubMed

León, Federico R

2013-07-01

Research on gender power in contraceptive use has focused on whether women have an active role in household decision-making (the participation model) or on the extent of their control of domestic decisions (the control model); it has also addressed the joint effects of power, age, education and work. Findings published in this journal (Woldemicael, 2009) suggest a third power model according to which wives make joint decisions with their husbands on important domestic areas and autonomous decisions on secondary matters (the egalitarian model). In analyses of Demographic and Health Survey data sets from 46 countries, the egalitarian model explained contraceptive use better than the control and participation models in 19 out of 20 countries outside sub-Saharan Africa; its superiority was less overwhelming in this sub-continent. Power effects on contraceptive use that depend on women's education, age and work for cash are larger in sub-Saharan Africa than in other world regions, whereas independent power effects differ little regionally, suggesting the action of a personality factor. Situational specification of decision importance and direct measurement of women's assertiveness are needed to improve the explanation of contraceptive behaviour.

Picosecond pulses from wavelength-swept continuous-wave Fourier domain mode-locked lasers.

PubMed

Eigenwillig, Christoph M; Wieser, Wolfgang; Todor, Sebastian; Biedermann, Benjamin R; Klein, Thomas; Jirauschek, Christian; Huber, Robert

2013-01-01

Ultrafast lasers have a crucial function in many fields of science; however, up to now, high-energy pulses directly from compact, efficient and low-power semiconductor lasers are not available. Therefore, we introduce a new approach based on temporal compression of the continuous-wave, wavelength-swept output of Fourier domain mode-locked lasers, where a narrowband optical filter is tuned synchronously to the round-trip time of light in a kilometre-long laser cavity. So far, these rapidly swept lasers enabled orders-of-magnitude speed increase in optical coherence tomography. Here we report on the generation of ~60-70 ps pulses at 390 kHz repetition rate. As energy is stored optically in the long-fibre delay line and not as population inversion in the laser-gain medium, high-energy pulses can now be generated directly from a low-power, compact semiconductor-based oscillator. Our theory predicts subpicosecond pulses with this new technique in the future.

Picosecond pulses from wavelength-swept continuous-wave Fourier domain mode-locked lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eigenwillig, Christoph M.; Wieser, Wolfgang; Todor, Sebastian; Biedermann, Benjamin R.; Klein, Thomas; Jirauschek, Christian; Huber, Robert

2013-05-01

Ultrafast lasers have a crucial function in many fields of science; however, up to now, high-energy pulses directly from compact, efficient and low-power semiconductor lasers are not available. Therefore, we introduce a new approach based on temporal compression of the continuous-wave, wavelength-swept output of Fourier domain mode-locked lasers, where a narrowband optical filter is tuned synchronously to the round-trip time of light in a kilometre-long laser cavity. So far, these rapidly swept lasers enabled orders-of-magnitude speed increase in optical coherence tomography. Here we report on the generation of ~60-70 ps pulses at 390 kHz repetition rate. As energy is stored optically in the long-fibre delay line and not as population inversion in the laser-gain medium, high-energy pulses can now be generated directly from a low-power, compact semiconductor-based oscillator. Our theory predicts subpicosecond pulses with this new technique in the future.

A lifting-surface theory solution for the diffraction of internal sound sources by an engine nacelle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, R.

1986-07-01

Lifting-surface theory is used to solve the problem of diffraction by a rigid open-ended pipe of zero thickness and finite length, with application to the prediction of acoustic insertion-loss performance for the encasing structure of a ducted propeller or turbofan. An axisymmetric situation is assumed, and the incident field due to a force applied directly to the fluid in the cylinder axial direction is used. A virtual-source distribution of unsteady dipoles is found whose integrated component of radial velocity is set to cancel that of the incident field over the surface. The calculated virtual load is verified by whether its effect on the near-field input power at the actual source is consistent with the far-field power radiated by the system, a balance which is possible if the no-flow-through boundary condition has been satisfied over the rigid pipe surface such that the velocity component of the acoustic intensity is zero.

Workplace Ostracism Seen through the Lens of Power

PubMed Central

Fiset, John; Al Hajj, Raghid; Vongas, John G.

2017-01-01

Drawing on approach/inhibition theory of power, we investigated two factors that influence the manner by which victims react to workplace ostracism: the hierarchical status of the ostracizer and the level of an ostracizee’s external social support including family, friends, and significant others. Across an experimental vignette study (Study 1) and a field study (Study 2), we found support for a three-way interaction with felt ostracism, ostracizee external social support, and ostracizer status influencing victims’ organizational citizenship behavior and deviance directed toward other individuals. In addition, felt ostracism and ostracizee external social support interacted to predict turnover intentions. Overall, victims who were ostracized by a legitimate higher-status authority (e.g., manager) and whose external social support network was limited experienced the most negative outcomes across both studies. Our findings suggest that contextual factors both inside and outside the organization jointly impact the way in which individuals react to perceived workplace ostracism. Implications and future research directions are discussed. PMID:28928702

Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) Users Guide

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

ARL-TR-7573● JAN 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) User’s Guide by David P Sauter...not return it to the originator. ARL-TR-7573 ● JAN 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER...2016 2. REPORT TYPE Final 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 09/2015–11/2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) User’s

Unified Sequence-Based Association Tests Allowing for Multiple Functional Annotations and Meta-analysis of Noncoding Variation in Metabochip Data.

PubMed

He, Zihuai; Xu, Bin; Lee, Seunggeun; Ionita-Laza, Iuliana

2017-09-07

Substantial progress has been made in the functional annotation of genetic variation in the human genome. Integrative analysis that incorporates such functional annotations into sequencing studies can aid the discovery of disease-associated genetic variants, especially those with unknown function and located outside protein-coding regions. Direct incorporation of one functional annotation as weight in existing dispersion and burden tests can suffer substantial loss of power when the functional annotation is not predictive of the risk status of a variant. Here, we have developed unified tests that can utilize multiple functional annotations simultaneously for integrative association analysis with efficient computational techniques. We show that the proposed tests significantly improve power when variant risk status can be predicted by functional annotations. Importantly, when functional annotations are not predictive of risk status, the proposed tests incur only minimal loss of power in relation to existing dispersion and burden tests, and under certain circumstances they can even have improved power by learning a weight that better approximates the underlying disease model in a data-adaptive manner. The tests can be constructed with summary statistics of existing dispersion and burden tests for sequencing data, therefore allowing meta-analysis of multiple studies without sharing individual-level data. We applied the proposed tests to a meta-analysis of noncoding rare variants in Metabochip data on 12,281 individuals from eight studies for lipid traits. By incorporating the Eigen functional score, we detected significant associations between noncoding rare variants in SLC22A3 and low-density lipoprotein and total cholesterol, associations that are missed by standard dispersion and burden tests. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scaling theory for information networks.

PubMed

Moses, Melanie E; Forrest, Stephanie; Davis, Alan L; Lodder, Mike A; Brown, James H

2008-12-06

Networks distribute energy, materials and information to the components of a variety of natural and human-engineered systems, including organisms, brains, the Internet and microprocessors. Distribution networks enable the integrated and coordinated functioning of these systems, and they also constrain their design. The similar hierarchical branching networks observed in organisms and microprocessors are striking, given that the structure of organisms has evolved via natural selection, while microprocessors are designed by engineers. Metabolic scaling theory (MST) shows that the rate at which networks deliver energy to an organism is proportional to its mass raised to the 3/4 power. We show that computational systems are also characterized by nonlinear network scaling and use MST principles to characterize how information networks scale, focusing on how MST predicts properties of clock distribution networks in microprocessors. The MST equations are modified to account for variation in the size and density of transistors and terminal wires in microprocessors. Based on the scaling of the clock distribution network, we predict a set of trade-offs and performance properties that scale with chip size and the number of transistors. However, there are systematic deviations between power requirements on microprocessors and predictions derived directly from MST. These deviations are addressed by augmenting the model to account for decentralized flow in some microprocessor networks (e.g. in logic networks). More generally, we hypothesize a set of constraints between the size, power and performance of networked information systems including transistors on chips, hosts on the Internet and neurons in the brain.

Characterization and Modeling of a Control Moment Gyroscope

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

parallel, and angular directions [16]. The rotor is powered by a brushless DC motor rated to 557.9 mN-m (4.938 in-lbf) [4]. The motor has Hall effect ...mass balance installed on rotor housing Gimbal Balancing Test Procedures. To evaluate the effectiveness of the mass balance, the gimbal was tested...in which the rotor is running The vehicle-level model test (Section 4.9) predicts the effects of CMG gear lash on overall vehicle performance. Gear

A Predictive Model of Domestic Violence in Multicultural Families Focusing on Perpetrator.

PubMed

Choi, Eun Young; Hyun, Hye Jin

2016-09-01

This study was conducted to assess predictor variables of husbands in multicultural families and examine the relationship among variables after setting up a hypothetical model including influencing factors, so as to provide a framework necessary for developing nursing interventions of domestic violence. The participants were 260 husbands in multicultural families in four cities in Korea. Data were analyzed using SPSS 22.0 and AMOS 20.0. Self-control, social support, family of origin violence experience and stress on cultural adaptation directly affected to dysfunctional communication, and the explanatory power of the variables was 64.7%. Family of origin violence experience in domestic stress on cultural adaptation, and dysfunctional communication were directly related to domestic violence in multicultural families, and the explanatory power of the variables was 64.6%. We found out that all variables in the model had mediation effects to domestic violence through dysfunctional communication. In other words, self-control and social support had complete mediation effects, and family of origin violence experience in domestic violence and stress on cultural adaptation had partial mediation effects. The variables explained in this study should be considered as predictive factors of domestic violence in multicultural families, and used to provide preventive nursing intervention. Our resutls can be taken into account for developing and implementing programs on alleviating dysfunctional communication in multicultural families in Korea. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Coupled modeling of a directly heated tubular solar receiver for supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycle: Optical and thermal-fluid evaluation

DOE PAGES

Ortega, Jesus; Khivsara, Sagar; Christian, Joshua; ...

2016-05-30

In single phase performance and appealing thermo-physical properties supercritical carbon dioxide (s-CO 2) make a good heat transfer fluid candidate for concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies. The development of a solar receiver capable of delivering s-CO 2 at outlet temperatures ~973 K is required in order to merge CSP and s-CO 2 Brayton cycle technologies. A coupled optical and thermal-fluid modeling effort for a tubular receiver is undertaken to evaluate the direct tubular s-CO 2 receiver’s thermal performance when exposed to a concentrated solar power input of ~0.3–0.5 MW. Ray tracing, using SolTrace, is performed to determine the heat fluxmore » profiles on the receiver and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) determines the thermal performance of the receiver under the specified heating conditions. Moreover, an in-house MATLAB code is developed to couple SolTrace and ANSYS Fluent. CFD modeling is performed using ANSYS Fluent to predict the thermal performance of the receiver by evaluating radiation and convection heat loss mechanisms. Understanding the effects of variation in heliostat aiming strategy and flow configurations on the thermal performance of the receiver was achieved through parametric analyses. Finally, a receiver thermal efficiency ~85% was predicted and the surface temperatures were observed to be within the allowable limit for the materials under consideration.« less

Coupled modeling of a directly heated tubular solar receiver for supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycle: Optical and thermal-fluid evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ortega, Jesus; Khivsara, Sagar; Christian, Joshua

In single phase performance and appealing thermo-physical properties supercritical carbon dioxide (s-CO 2) make a good heat transfer fluid candidate for concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies. The development of a solar receiver capable of delivering s-CO 2 at outlet temperatures ~973 K is required in order to merge CSP and s-CO 2 Brayton cycle technologies. A coupled optical and thermal-fluid modeling effort for a tubular receiver is undertaken to evaluate the direct tubular s-CO 2 receiver’s thermal performance when exposed to a concentrated solar power input of ~0.3–0.5 MW. Ray tracing, using SolTrace, is performed to determine the heat fluxmore » profiles on the receiver and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) determines the thermal performance of the receiver under the specified heating conditions. Moreover, an in-house MATLAB code is developed to couple SolTrace and ANSYS Fluent. CFD modeling is performed using ANSYS Fluent to predict the thermal performance of the receiver by evaluating radiation and convection heat loss mechanisms. Understanding the effects of variation in heliostat aiming strategy and flow configurations on the thermal performance of the receiver was achieved through parametric analyses. Finally, a receiver thermal efficiency ~85% was predicted and the surface temperatures were observed to be within the allowable limit for the materials under consideration.« less

SP-100 multimegawatt scaleup to meet electric propulsion mission requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newkirk, D. W.; Salamah, S. A.; Stewart, S. L.; Pluta, P. R.

The SP-100 nuclear heat source technology, utilizing uranium nitride fuel clad in PWC-11 in a fast reactor with lithium coolant circulated by an electromagnetic pump, is shown to be directly extrapolatable to thermal power levels that meet NASA nuclear electric propulsion requirements using different power conversion techniques. The SP-100 nuclear technology can be applied to missions with NEP (nuclear electric propulsion) requirements as low as tens of kWe to tens of MWe. It is pointed out that the SP-100 heat source has a great advantage of very long lifetime capability, since it utilizes very rugged refractory metal fuel pins and is independent of the power conversion scheme chosen for a given mission. The only moving parts in the nuclear subsystems are the control rods moved to compensate for fuel enrichment degradation due to fission and for power shutdown. Lowest alpha values in the range of interest for potential NASA missions are predicted for the dynamic Rankine and static HYTEC conversion systems.

Comprehensive lipid analysis: a powerful metanomic tool for predictive and diagnostic medicine.

PubMed

Watkins, S M

2000-09-01

The power and accuracy of predictive diagnostics stand to improve dramatically as a result of lipid metanomics. The high definition of data obtained with this approach allows multiple rather than single metabolites to be used in markers for a group. Since as many as 40 fatty acids are quantified from each lipid class, and up to 15 lipid classes can be quantified easily, more than 600 individual lipid metabolites can be measured routinely for each sample. Because these analyses are comprehensive, only the most appropriate and unique metabolites are selected for their predictive value. Thus, comprehensive lipid analysis promises to greatly improve predictive diagnostics for phenotypes that directly or peripherally involve lipids. A broader and possibly more exciting aspect of this technology is the generation of metabolic profiles that are not simply markers for disease, but metabolic maps that can be used to identify specific genes or activities that cause or influence the disease state. Metanomics is, in essence, functional genomics from metabolite analysis. By defining the metabolic basis for phenotype, researchers and clinicians will have an extraordinary opportunity to understand and treat disease. Much in the same way that gene chips allow researchers to observe the complex expression response to a stimulus, metanomics will enable researchers to observe the complex metabolic interplay responsible for defining phenotype. By extending this approach beyond the observation of individual dysregulations, medicine will begin to profile not single diseases, but health. As health is the proper balance of all vital metabolic pathways, comprehensive or metanomic analysis lends itself very well to identifying the metabolite distributions necessary for optimum health. Comprehensive and quantitative analysis of lipids would provide this degree of diagnostic power to researchers and clinicians interested in mining metabolic profiles for biological meaning.

Inflationary tensor fossils in large-scale structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dimastrogiovanni, Emanuela; Fasiello, Matteo; Jeong, Donghui

Inflation models make specific predictions for a tensor-scalar-scalar three-point correlation, or bispectrum, between one gravitational-wave (tensor) mode and two density-perturbation (scalar) modes. This tensor-scalar-scalar correlation leads to a local power quadrupole, an apparent departure from statistical isotropy in our Universe, as well as characteristic four-point correlations in the current mass distribution in the Universe. So far, the predictions for these observables have been worked out only for single-clock models in which certain consistency conditions between the tensor-scalar-scalar correlation and tensor and scalar power spectra are satisfied. Here we review the requirements on inflation models for these consistency conditions to bemore » satisfied. We then consider several examples of inflation models, such as non-attractor and solid-inflation models, in which these conditions are put to the test. In solid inflation the simplest consistency conditions are already violated whilst in the non-attractor model we find that, contrary to the standard scenario, the tensor-scalar-scalar correlator probes directly relevant model-dependent information. We work out the predictions for observables in these models. For non-attractor inflation we find an apparent local quadrupolar departure from statistical isotropy in large-scale structure but that this power quadrupole decreases very rapidly at smaller scales. The consistency of the CMB quadrupole with statistical isotropy then constrains the distance scale that corresponds to the transition from the non-attractor to attractor phase of inflation to be larger than the currently observable horizon. Solid inflation predicts clustering fossils signatures in the current galaxy distribution that may be large enough to be detectable with forthcoming, and possibly even current, galaxy surveys.« less

A novel method to study contact inhibition of locomotion using micropatterned substrates

PubMed Central

Scarpa, Elena; Roycroft, Alice; Theveneau, Eric; Terriac, Emmanuel; Piel, Matthieu; Mayor, Roberto

2013-01-01

Summary The concept of contact inhibition of locomotion (CIL) describes the ability of a cell to change the direction of its movement after contact with another cell. It has been shown to be responsible for physiological and developmental processes such as wound healing, macrophage dispersion and neural crest cell migration; whereas its loss facilitates cancer cell invasion and metastatic dissemination. Different assays have been developed to analyze CIL in tissue culture models. However, these methods have several caveats. Collisions happen at low frequency between freely migrating cells and the orientation of the cells at the time of contact is not predictable. Moreover, the computational analysis required by these assays is often complicated and it retains a certain degree of discretion. Here, we show that confinement of neural crest cell migration on a single dimension by using a micropatterned substrate allows standardized and predictable cell–cell collision. CIL can thus easily be quantified by direct measurement of simple cellular parameters such as the distance between nuclei after collision. We tested some of the signaling pathways previously identified as involved in CIL, such as small GTPases and non-canonical Wnt signaling, using this new method for CIL analysis. The restricted directionality of migration of cells in lines is a powerful strategy to obtain higher predictability and higher efficiency of the CIL response upon cell–cell collisions. PMID:24143276

Prediction of anaerobic power values from an abbreviated WAnT protocol.

PubMed

Stickley, Christopher D; Hetzler, Ronald K; Kimura, Iris F

2008-05-01

The traditional 30-second Wingate anaerobic test (WAnT) is a widely used anaerobic power assessment protocol. An abbreviated protocol has been shown to decrease the mild to severe physical discomfort often associated with the WAnT. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine whether a 20-second WAnT protocol could be used to accurately predict power values of a standard 30-second WAnT. In 96 college females, anaerobic power variables were assessed using a standard 30-second WAnT protocol. Maximum power values as well as instantaneous power at 10, 15, and 20 seconds were recorded. Based on these results, stepwise regression analysis was performed to determine the accuracy with which mean power, minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue for a standard 30-second WAnT could be predicted from values obtained during the first 20 seconds of testing. Mean power values showed the highest level of predictability (R2 = 0.99) from the 20-second values. Minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue also showed high levels of predictability (R2 = 0.91, 0.84, and 0.84, respectively) using only values obtained during the first 20 seconds of the protocol. An abbreviated (20-second) WAnT protocol appears to effectively predict results of a standard 30-second WAnT in college-age females, allowing for comparison of data to published norms. A shortened test may allow for a decrease in unwanted side effects associated with the traditional WAnT protocol.

Effect of trabeculectomy on the accuracy of intraocular lens calculations in patients with open-angle glaucoma.

PubMed

Bae, Hyoung Won; Lee, Yun Ha; Kim, Do Wook; Lee, Taekjune; Hong, Samin; Seong, Gong Je; Kim, Chan Yun

2016-08-01

The objective of the study is to examine the effect of trabeculectomy on intraocular lens power calculations in patients with open-angle glaucoma (OAG) undergoing cataract surgery. The design is retrospective data analysis. There are a total of 55 eyes of 55 patients with OAG who had a cataract surgery alone or in combination with trabeculectomy. We classified OAG subjects into the following groups based on surgical history: only cataract surgery (OC group), cataract surgery after prior trabeculectomy (CAT group), and cataract surgery performed in combination with trabeculectomy (CCT group). Differences between actual and predicted postoperative refractive error. Mean error (ME, difference between postoperative and predicted SE) in the CCT group was significantly lower (towards myopia) than that of the OC group (P = 0.008). Additionally, mean absolute error (MAE, absolute value of ME) in the CAT group was significantly greater than in the OC group (P = 0.006). Using linear mixed models, the ME calculated with the SRK II formula was more accurate than the ME predicted by the SRK T formula in the CAT (P = 0.032) and CCT (P = 0.035) groups. The intraocular lens power prediction accuracy was lower in the CAT and CCT groups than in the OC group. The prediction error was greater in the CAT group than in the OC group, and the direction of the prediction error tended to be towards myopia in the CCT group. The SRK II formula may be more accurate in predicting residual refractive error in the CAT and CCT groups. © 2016 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Bifurcation Analysis of a DC-DC Bidirectional Power Converter Operating with Constant Power Loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristiano, Rony; Pagano, Daniel J.; Benadero, Luis; Ponce, Enrique

Direct current (DC) microgrids (MGs) are an emergent option to satisfy new demands for power quality and integration of renewable resources in electrical distribution systems. This work addresses the large-signal stability analysis of a DC-DC bidirectional converter (DBC) connected to a storage device in an islanding MG. This converter is responsible for controlling the balance of power (load demand and generation) under constant power loads (CPLs). In order to control the DC bus voltage through a DBC, we propose a robust sliding mode control (SMC) based on a washout filter. Dynamical systems techniques are exploited to assess the quality of this switching control strategy. In this sense, a bifurcation analysis is performed to study the nonlinear stability of a reduced model of this system. The appearance of different bifurcations when load parameters and control gains are changed is studied in detail. In the specific case of Teixeira Singularity (TS) bifurcation, some experimental results are provided, confirming the mathematical predictions. Both a deeper insight in the dynamic behavior of the controlled system and valuable design criteria are obtained.

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Spacecraft Power System Design and Orbital Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dakermanji, George; Burns, Michael; Lee, Leonine; Lyons, John; Kim, David; Spitzer, Thomas; Kercheval, Bradford

2016-01-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) spacecraft was jointly developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). It is a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) spacecraft launched on February 27, 2014. The spacecraft is in a circular 400 Km altitude, 65 degrees inclination nadir pointing orbit with a three year basic mission life. The solar array consists of two sun tracking wings with cable wraps. The panels are populated with triple junction cells of nominal 29.5% efficiency. One axis is canted by 52 degrees to provide power to the spacecraft at high beta angles. The power system is a Direct Energy Transfer (DET) system designed to support 1950 Watts orbit average power. The batteries use SONY 18650HC cells and consist of three 8s x 84p batteries operated in parallel as a single battery. The paper describes the power system design details, its performance to date and the lithium ion battery model that was developed for use in the energy balance analysis and is being used to predict the on-orbit health of the battery.

Impact of large-scale tides on cosmological distortions via redshift-space power spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akitsu, Kazuyuki; Takada, Masahiro

2018-03-01

Although large-scale perturbations beyond a finite-volume survey region are not direct observables, these affect measurements of clustering statistics of small-scale (subsurvey) perturbations in large-scale structure, compared with the ensemble average, via the mode-coupling effect. In this paper we show that a large-scale tide induced by scalar perturbations causes apparent anisotropic distortions in the redshift-space power spectrum of galaxies in a way depending on an alignment between the tide, wave vector of small-scale modes and line-of-sight direction. Using the perturbation theory of structure formation, we derive a response function of the redshift-space power spectrum to large-scale tide. We then investigate the impact of large-scale tide on estimation of cosmological distances and the redshift-space distortion parameter via the measured redshift-space power spectrum for a hypothetical large-volume survey, based on the Fisher matrix formalism. To do this, we treat the large-scale tide as a signal, rather than an additional source of the statistical errors, and show that a degradation in the parameter is restored if we can employ the prior on the rms amplitude expected for the standard cold dark matter (CDM) model. We also discuss whether the large-scale tide can be constrained at an accuracy better than the CDM prediction, if the effects up to a larger wave number in the nonlinear regime can be included.

21 CFR 882.1570 - Powered direct-contact temperature measurement device.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Powered direct-contact temperature measurement... HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES NEUROLOGICAL DEVICES Neurological Diagnostic Devices § 882.1570 Powered direct-contact temperature measurement device. (a) Identification. A powered direct...

21 CFR 882.1570 - Powered direct-contact temperature measurement device.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Powered direct-contact temperature measurement... HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES NEUROLOGICAL DEVICES Neurological Diagnostic Devices § 882.1570 Powered direct-contact temperature measurement device. (a) Identification. A powered direct...

21 CFR 882.1570 - Powered direct-contact temperature measurement device.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Powered direct-contact temperature measurement... HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES NEUROLOGICAL DEVICES Neurological Diagnostic Devices § 882.1570 Powered direct-contact temperature measurement device. (a) Identification. A powered direct...

Investigation of chemical and electrochemical reactions mechanisms in a direct carbon fuel cell using olive wood charcoal as sustainable fuel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elleuch, Amal; Halouani, Kamel; Li, Yongdan

2015-05-01

Direct carbon fuel cell (DCFC) is a high temperature fuel cell using solid carbon as fuel. The use of environmentally friendly carbon material constitutes a promising option for the DCFC future. In this context, this paper focuses on the use of biomass-derived charcoal renewable fuel. A practical investigation of Tunisian olive wood charcoal (OW-C) in planar DCFCs is conducted and good power density (105 mW cm-2) and higher current density (550 mA cm-2) are obtained at 700 °C. Analytical and predictive techniques are performed to explore the relationships between fuel properties and DCFC chemical and electrochemical mechanisms. High carbon content, carbon-oxygen groups and disordered structure, are the key parameters allowing the achieved good performance. Relatively complex chain reactions are predicted to explain the gas evolution within the anode. CO, H2 and CH4 participation in the anodic reaction is proved.

Direct numerical simulation of broadband trailing edge noise from a NACA 0012 airfoil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehrabadi, Mohammad; Bodony, Daniel

2016-11-01

Commercial jet-powered aircraft produce unwanted noise at takeoff and landing when they are close to near-airport communities. Modern high-bypass-ratio turbofan engines have reduced jet exhaust noise sufficiently such that noise from the main fan is now significant. In preparation for a large-eddy simulation of the NASA/GE Source Diagnostic Test Fan, we study the broadband noise due to the turbulent flow on a NACA 0012 airfoil at zero degree angle-of-attack, a chord-based Reynolds number of 408,000 and a Mach number of 0.115 using direct numerical simulation (DNS) and wall-modeled large-eddy simulation (WMLES). The flow conditions correspond to existing experimental data. We investigate the roughness-induced transition-to-turbulence and sound generation from a DNS perspective as well as examine how these two features are captured by a wall model. Comparisons between the DNS- and WMLES-predicted noise are made and provide guidance on the use of WMLES for broadband fan noise prediction. AeroAcoustics Research Consortium.

Feeling Interpersonally Controlled While Pursuing Materialistic Goals: A Problematic Combination for Moral Behavior.

PubMed

Sheldon, Kennon M; Sommet, Nicolas; Corcoran, Mike; Elliot, Andrew J

2018-04-01

We created a life-goal assessment drawing from self-determination theory and achievement goal literature, examining its predictive power regarding immoral behavior and subjective well-being. Our source items assessed direction and energization of motivation, via the distinction between intrinsic and extrinsic aims and between intrinsic and extrinsic reasons for acting, respectively. Fused source items assessed four goal complexes representing a combination of direction and energization. Across three studies ( Ns = 109, 121, and 398), the extrinsic aim/extrinsic reason complex was consistently associated with immoral and/or unethical behavior beyond four source and three other goal complex variables. This was consistent with the triangle model of responsibility's claim that immoral behaviors may result when individuals disengage the self from moral prescriptions. The extrinsic/extrinsic complex also predicted lower subjective well-being, albeit less consistently. Our goal complex approach sheds light on how self-determination theory's goal contents and organismic integration mini-theories interact, particularly with respect to unethical behavior.

Exploring the Effects of Low Power Schemas in Mothers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Rosemary S. L.

1999-01-01

Assessed whether low perceived maternal power and temperamentally fearful preschool-aged daughters predicted subsequent maternal overcontrol and internalizing symptoms in daughters 2 years later. Found that low perceived maternal power predicted subsequent maternal overcontrol with initially fearful daughters but did not predict subsequent…

Direct solar-pumped iodine laser amplifier

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, Kwang S.; Kim, K. H.; Stock, L. V.

1987-01-01

The improvement on the collection system of the Tarmarack Solar Simulator beam was attemped. The basic study of evaluating the solid state laser materials for the solar pumping and also the work to construct a kinetic model algorithm for the flashlamp pumped iodine lasers were carried out. It was observed that the collector cone worked better than the lens assembly in order to collect the solar simulator beam and to focus it down to a strong power density. The study on the various laser materials and their lasing characteristics shows that the neodymium and chromium co-doped gadolinium scandium gallium garnet (Nr:Cr:GSGG) may be a strong candidate for the high power solar pumped solid state laser crystal. On the other hand the improved kinetic modeling for the flashlamp pumped iodine laser provides a good agreement between the theoretical model and the experimental data on the laser power output, and predicts the output parameters of a solar pumped iodine laser.

Feasibility Study of Solar Dome Encapsulation of Photovoltaic Arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

The technical and economic advantages of using air-supported plastic enclosures to protect flat plate photovoltaic arrays are described. Conceptual designs for a fixed, latitude-tilt array and a fully tracking array were defined. Detailed wind loads and strength analyses were performed for the fixed array. Detailed thermal and power output analyses provided array performance for typical seasonal and extreme temperature conditions. Costs of each design as used in a 200 MWe central power station were defined from manufacturing and material cost estimates. The capital cost and cost of energy for the enclosed fixed-tilt array were lower than for the enclosed tracking array. The enclosed fixed-tilt array capital investment was 38% less, and the levelized bus bar energy cost was 26% less than costs for a conventional, glass-encapsulated array design. The predicted energy cost for the enclosed fixed array was 79 mills/kW-h for direct current delivered to the power conditioning units.

High frequency sound propagation in a network of interconnecting streets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewett, D. P.

2012-12-01

We propose a new model for the propagation of acoustic energy from a time-harmonic point source through a network of interconnecting streets in the high frequency regime, in which the wavelength is small compared to typical macro-lengthscales such as street widths/lengths and building heights. Our model, which is based on geometrical acoustics (ray theory), represents the acoustic power flow from the source along any pathway through the network as the integral of a power density over the launch angle of a ray emanating from the source, and takes into account the key phenomena involved in the propagation, namely energy loss by wall absorption, energy redistribution at junctions, and, in 3D, energy loss to the atmosphere. The model predicts strongly anisotropic decay away from the source, with the power flow decaying exponentially in the number of junctions from the source, except along the axial directions of the network, where the decay is algebraic.

Wireless energy transfer: Dielectric lens antennas for beam shaping in wireless power-transfer applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonçalves, Ricardo; Carvalho, Nuno B.; Pinho, Pedro

2017-02-01

In the current contest of wireless systems, the last frontier remains the cut of the power cord. In that sense, the interest over wireless energy transfer technologies in the past years has grown exponentially. However, there are still many challenges to be overcome in order to enable wireless energy transfer full potential. One of the focus in the development of such systems is the design of very-high-gain, highly efficient, antennas that can compensate for the propagation loss of radio signals over the air. In this paper, we explore the design and manufacturing process of dielectric lenses, fabricated using a professional-grade desktop 3D printer. Lens antennas are used in order to increase beam efficiency and therefore maximize the efficiency of a wireless power-transfer system operating at microwave frequencies in the Ku band. Measurements of two fabricated prototypes showcase a large directivity, as predicted with simulations. xml:lang="fr"

Research on trading patterns of large users' direct power purchase considering consumption of clean energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guojun, He; Lin, Guo; Zhicheng, Yu; Xiaojun, Zhu; Lei, Wang; Zhiqiang, Zhao

2017-03-01

In order to reduce the stochastic volatility of supply and demand, and maintain the electric power system's stability after large scale stochastic renewable energy sources connected to grid, the development and consumption should be promoted by marketing means. Bilateral contract transaction model of large users' direct power purchase conforms to the actual situation of our country. Trading pattern of large users' direct power purchase is analyzed in this paper, characteristics of each power generation are summed up, and centralized matching mode is mainly introduced. Through the establishment of power generation enterprises' priority evaluation index system and the analysis of power generation enterprises' priority based on fuzzy clustering, the sorting method of power generation enterprises' priority in trading patterns of large users' direct power purchase is put forward. Suggestions for trading mechanism of large users' direct power purchase are offered by this method, which is good for expand the promotion of large users' direct power purchase further.

Effect of Adding McKenzie Syndrome, Centralization, Directional Preference, and Psychosocial Classification Variables to a Risk-Adjusted Model Predicting Functional Status Outcomes for Patients With Lumbar Impairments.

PubMed

Werneke, Mark W; Edmond, Susan; Deutscher, Daniel; Ward, Jason; Grigsby, David; Young, Michelle; McGill, Troy; McClenahan, Brian; Weinberg, Jon; Davidow, Amy L

2016-09-01

Study Design Retrospective cohort. Background Patient-classification subgroupings may be important prognostic factors explaining outcomes. Objectives To determine effects of adding classification variables (McKenzie syndrome and pain patterns, including centralization and directional preference; Symptom Checklist Back Pain Prediction Model [SCL BPPM]; and the Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire subscales of work and physical activity) to a baseline risk-adjusted model predicting functional status (FS) outcomes. Methods Consecutive patients completed a battery of questionnaires that gathered information on 11 risk-adjustment variables. Physical therapists trained in Mechanical Diagnosis and Therapy methods classified each patient by McKenzie syndromes and pain pattern. Functional status was assessed at discharge by patient-reported outcomes. Only patients with complete data were included. Risk of selection bias was assessed. Prediction of discharge FS was assessed using linear stepwise regression models, allowing 13 variables to enter the model. Significant variables were retained in subsequent models. Model power (R(2)) and beta coefficients for model variables were estimated. Results Two thousand sixty-six patients with lumbar impairments were evaluated. Of those, 994 (48%), 10 (<1%), and 601 (29%) were excluded due to incomplete psychosocial data, McKenzie classification data, and missing FS at discharge, respectively. The final sample for analyses was 723 (35%). Overall R(2) for the baseline prediction FS model was 0.40. Adding classification variables to the baseline model did not result in significant increases in R(2). McKenzie syndrome or pain pattern explained 2.8% and 3.0% of the variance, respectively. When pain pattern and SCL BPPM were added simultaneously, overall model R(2) increased to 0.44. Although none of these increases in R(2) were significant, some classification variables were stronger predictors compared with some other variables included in the baseline model. Conclusion The small added prognostic capabilities identified when combining McKenzie or pain-pattern classifications with the SCL BPPM classification did not significantly improve prediction of FS outcomes in this study. Additional research is warranted to investigate the importance of classification variables compared with those used in the baseline model to maximize predictive power. Level of Evidence Prognosis, level 4. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2016;46(9):726-741. Epub 31 Jul 2016. doi:10.2519/jospt.2016.6266.

Acceleration of low-energy ions at parallel shocks with a focused transport model

DOE PAGES

Zuo, Pingbing; Zhang, Ming; Rassoul, Hamid K.

2013-04-10

Here, we present a test particle simulation on the injection and acceleration of low-energy suprathermal particles by parallel shocks with a focused transport model. The focused transport equation contains all necessary physics of shock acceleration, but avoids the limitation of diffusive shock acceleration (DSA) that requires a small pitch angle anisotropy. This simulation verifies that the particles with speeds of a fraction of to a few times the shock speed can indeed be directly injected and accelerated into the DSA regime by parallel shocks. At higher energies starting from a few times the shock speed, the energy spectrum of acceleratedmore » particles is a power law with the same spectral index as the solution of standard DSA theory, although the particles are highly anisotropic in the upstream region. The intensity, however, is different from that predicted by DSA theory, indicating a different level of injection efficiency. It is found that the shock strength, the injection speed, and the intensity of an electric cross-shock potential (CSP) jump can affect the injection efficiency of the low-energy particles. A stronger shock has a higher injection efficiency. In addition, if the speed of injected particles is above a few times the shock speed, the produced power-law spectrum is consistent with the prediction of standard DSA theory in both its intensity and spectrum index with an injection efficiency of 1. CSP can increase the injection efficiency through direct particle reflection back upstream, but it has little effect on the energetic particle acceleration once the speed of injected particles is beyond a few times the shock speed. This test particle simulation proves that the focused transport theory is an extension of DSA theory with the capability of predicting the efficiency of particle injection.« less

Effects of Surface and Subsurface Bed Material Composition on Gravel Transport and Flow Competence Relations—Possibilities for Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunte, K.; Abt, S. R.; Swingle, K. W.; Cenderelli, D. A.; Gaeuman, D. A.

2014-12-01

Bedload transport and flow competence relations are difficult to predict in coarse-bedded steep streams where widely differing sediment supply, bed stability, and complex flow hydraulics greatly affect amounts and sizes of transported gravel particles. This study explains how properties of bed material surface and subsurface size distributions are directly related to gravel transport and may be used for prediction of gravel transport and flow competence relations. Gravel transport, flow competence, and bed material size were measured in step-pool and plane-bed streams. Power functions were fitted to gravel transport QB=aQb and flow competence Dmax=cQd relations; Q is water discharge. Frequency distributions of surface FDsurf and subsurface FDsub bed material were likewise described by power functions FDsurf=hD j and FDsub=kDm fitted over six 0.5-phi size classes within 4 to 22.4 mm. Those gravel sizes are typically mobile even in moderate floods. Study results show that steeper subsurface bed material size distributions lead to steeper gravel transport and flow competence relations, whereas larger amounts of sediment contained in those 6 size bedmaterial classes (larger h and k) flatten the relations. Similarly, steeper surface size distributions decrease the coefficients of the gravel transport and flow competence relations, whereas larger amounts of sediment within the six bed material classes increase the intercepts of gravel transport and flow competence relations. Those relations are likely causative in streams where bedload stems almost entirely from the channel bed as opposed to direct (unworked) contributions from hillslopes and tributaries. The exponent of the subsurface bed material distribution m predicted the gravel transport exponent b with r2 near 0.7 and flow competence exponent d with r2 near 0.5. The intercept of bed surface distributions h increased the intercept a of gravel transport and c of the flow competence relations with r2 near 0.6.

Child and adolescent risk factors that differentially predict violent versus nonviolent crime.

PubMed

Kalvin, Carla B; Bierman, Karen L

2017-11-01

While most research on the development of antisocial and criminal behavior has considered nonviolent and violent crime together, some evidence points to differential risk factors for these separate types of crime. The present study explored differential risk for nonviolent and violent crime by investigating the longitudinal associations between three key child risk factors (aggression, emotion dysregulation, and social isolation) and two key adolescent risk factors (parent detachment and deviant peer affiliation) predicting violent and nonviolent crime outcomes in early adulthood. Data on 754 participants (46% African American, 50% European American, 4% other; 58% male) oversampled for aggressive-disruptive behavior were collected across three time points. Parents and teachers rated aggression, emotion dysregulation, and social isolation in fifth grade (middle childhood, age 10-11); parents and youth rated parent detachment and deviant peer affiliation in seventh and eighth grade (early adolescence, age 12-14) and arrest data were collected when participants were 22-23 years old (early adulthood). Different pathways to violent and nonviolent crime emerged. The severity of child dysfunction in late childhood, including aggression, emotion dysregulation, and social isolation, was a powerful and direct predictor of violent crime. Although child dysfunction also predicted nonviolent crime, the direct pathway accounted for half as much variance as the direct pathway to violent crime. Significant indirect pathways through adolescent socialization experiences (peer deviancy) emerged for nonviolent crime, but not for violent crime, suggesting adolescent socialization plays a more distinctive role in predicting nonviolent than violent crime. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Influence of the anisotropy on the performance of D-band SiC IMPATT diodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Qing; Yang, Lin'an; Wang, Shulong; Zhang, Yue; Dai, Yang; Hao, Yue

2015-03-01

Numerical simulation has been made to predict the RF performance of <0001> direction and <> direction p+/n/n-/n+ (single drift region) 4H silicon carbide (4H-SiC) impact-ionization-avalanche-transit-time (IMPATT) diodes for operation at D-band frequencies. We observed that the output performance of 4H-SiC IMPATT diode is sensitive to the crystal direction of the one-dimensional current flow. The simulation results show that <0001> direction 4H-SiC IMPATT diode provides larger breakdown voltage for its lower electron and hole ionization rates and higher dc-to-rf conversion efficiency (η) for its higher ratio of drift zone voltage drop (VD) to breakdown voltage (VB) compared with those for <> direction 4H-SiC IMPATT diode, which lead to higher-millimeter-wave power output for <0001> direction 4H-SiC IMPATT compared to <> direction. However, the quality factor Q for the <> direction 4H-SiC IMPATT diode is lower than that of <0001> direction, which implies that the <> direction 4H-SiC IMPATT diode exhibits better stability and higher growth rate of microwave oscillation compared with <0001> direction 4H-SiC IMPATT diode.

Reducing power consumption during execution of an application on a plurality of compute nodes

DOEpatents

Archer, Charles J [Rochester, MN; Blocksome, Michael A [Rochester, MN; Peters, Amanda E [Rochester, MN; Ratterman, Joseph D [Rochester, MN; Smith, Brian E [Rochester, MN

2012-06-05

Methods, apparatus, and products are disclosed for reducing power consumption during execution of an application on a plurality of compute nodes that include: executing, by each compute node, an application, the application including power consumption directives corresponding to one or more portions of the application; identifying, by each compute node, the power consumption directives included within the application during execution of the portions of the application corresponding to those identified power consumption directives; and reducing power, by each compute node, to one or more components of that compute node according to the identified power consumption directives during execution of the portions of the application corresponding to those identified power consumption directives.

Potentiality Prediction of Electric Power Replacement Based on Power Market Development Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Bo; Yang, Shuo; Liu, Qiang; Lin, Jingyi; Zhao, Le; Liu, Chang; Li, Bin

2017-05-01

The application of electric power replacement plays an important role in promoting the development of energy conservation and emission reduction in our country. To exploit the potentiality of regional electric power replacement, the regional GDP (gross domestic product) and energy consumption are taken as potentiality evaluation indicators. The principal component factors are extracted with PCA (principal component analysis), and the integral potentiality analysis is made to the potentiality of electric power replacement in the national various regions; a region is taken as a research object, and the potentiality of electric power replacement is defined and quantified. The analytical model for the potentiality of multi-scenario electric power replacement is developed, and prediction is made to the energy consumption with the grey prediction model. The relevant theoretical research is utilized to realize prediction analysis on the potentiality amount of multi-scenario electric power replacement.

A GLOBAL ASSESSMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY RESOURCES: NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, T.; Stackhouse, P. W., Jr.; Chandler, W.; Hoell, J. M.; Westberg, D.; Whitlock, C. H.

2010-12-01

NASA's POWER project, or the Prediction of the Worldwide Energy Resources project, synthesizes and analyzes data on a global scale. The products of the project find valuable applications in the solar and wind energy sectors of the renewable energy industries. The primary source data for the POWER project are NASA's World Climate Research Project (WCRP)/Global Energy and Water cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project (Release 3.0) and the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) assimilation model (V 4.0.3). Users of the POWER products access the data through NASA's Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE, Version 6.0) website (http://power.larc.nasa.gov). Over 200 parameters are available to the users. The spatial resolution is 1 degree by 1 degree now and will be finer later. The data covers from July 1983 to December 2007, a time-span of 24.5 years, and are provided as 3-hourly, daily and monthly means. As of now, there have been over 18 million web hits and over 4 million data file downloads. The POWER products have been systematically validated against ground-based measurements, and in particular, data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) archive, and also against the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB). Parameters such as minimum, maximum, daily mean temperature and dew points, relative humidity and surface pressure are validated against the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) data. SSE feeds data directly into Decision Support Systems including RETScreen International clean energy project analysis software that is written in 36 languages and has greater than 260,000 users worldwide.

Bayesian predictive power: choice of prior and some recommendations for its use as probability of success in drug development.

PubMed

Rufibach, Kaspar; Burger, Hans Ulrich; Abt, Markus

2016-09-01

Bayesian predictive power, the expectation of the power function with respect to a prior distribution for the true underlying effect size, is routinely used in drug development to quantify the probability of success of a clinical trial. Choosing the prior is crucial for the properties and interpretability of Bayesian predictive power. We review recommendations on the choice of prior for Bayesian predictive power and explore its features as a function of the prior. The density of power values induced by a given prior is derived analytically and its shape characterized. We find that for a typical clinical trial scenario, this density has a u-shape very similar, but not equal, to a β-distribution. Alternative priors are discussed, and practical recommendations to assess the sensitivity of Bayesian predictive power to its input parameters are provided. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Electrical Performance of the International Space Station U.S. Photovoltaic Array During Bifacial Illumination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delleur, Ann M.; Kerslake, Thomas W.

2002-01-01

With the first United States (U.S.) photovoltaic array (PVA) activated on International Space Station (ISS) in December 2000, on-orbit data can now be compared to analytical predictions. Due to ISS operational constraints, it is not always possible to point the front side of the arrays at the Sun. Thus, in many cases, sunlight directly illuminates the backside of the PVA as well as albedo illumination on either the front or the back. During this time, appreciable power is produced since the solar cells are mounted on a thin, solar transparent substrate. It is important to present accurate predictions for both front and backside power generation for mission planning, certification of flight readiness for a given mission, and on-orbit mission support. To provide a more detailed assessment of the ISS power production capability, the authors developed a PVA electrical performance model applicable to generalized bifacial illumination conditions. On-orbit PVA performance data were also collected and analyzed. This paper describes the ISS PVA performance model, and the methods used to reduce orbital performance data. Analyses were performed using SPACE. a NASA-GRC developed computer code for the ISS program office. Results showed a excellent comparison of on-orbit performance data and analytical results.

Multiphysics Computational Analysis of a Solid-Core Nuclear Thermal Engine Thrust Chamber

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Ten-See; Canabal, Francisco; Cheng, Gary; Chen, Yen-Sen

2007-01-01

The objective of this effort is to develop an efficient and accurate computational heat transfer methodology to predict thermal, fluid, and hydrogen environments for a hypothetical solid-core, nuclear thermal engine - the Small Engine. In addition, the effects of power profile and hydrogen conversion on heat transfer efficiency and thrust performance were also investigated. The computational methodology is based on an unstructured-grid, pressure-based, all speeds, chemically reacting, computational fluid dynamics platform, while formulations of conjugate heat transfer were implemented to describe the heat transfer from solid to hydrogen inside the solid-core reactor. The computational domain covers the entire thrust chamber so that the afore-mentioned heat transfer effects impact the thrust performance directly. The result shows that the computed core-exit gas temperature, specific impulse, and core pressure drop agree well with those of design data for the Small Engine. Finite-rate chemistry is very important in predicting the proper energy balance as naturally occurring hydrogen decomposition is endothermic. Locally strong hydrogen conversion associated with centralized power profile gives poor heat transfer efficiency and lower thrust performance. On the other hand, uniform hydrogen conversion associated with a more uniform radial power profile achieves higher heat transfer efficiency, and higher thrust performance.

USAF Advanced Terrestrial Energy Study. Volume 4. Analysis, Data, and Bibliography.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-04-01

OBJECTIVE OF THIS PROGRAM IS T0 DEVELOP A METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING LON(.o-TERM FUEL CELL PERFORM4ANCE FROM S"ORT-TEIM VESTING. APPLYING THE PERVURbATION...ION PROGRAM WAS DEVELOPED FOR ACTUALLY INSTALLINGP THE FUEL CELL POWER PLANT AT THE SANTA CLARA SIE DE SCh1PT ORS6 AIR POLLUTION DATtMENT;AUXILIARY...IV OF THE CERAMIC TECHNOLUGY READINESS PROGRAM TITL IMDNU) ADVANCED MATER IALS FUR ALTERNATIVE FUEL CAPABLE DIRECTLY FIRED HEAT ENGINES 36 - - - . r

Validation of MCDS by comparison of predicted with experimental velocity distribution functions in rarefied normal shocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pham-Van-diep, Gerald C.; Erwin, Daniel A.

1989-01-01

Velocity distribution functions in normal shock waves in argon and helium are calculated using Monte Carlo direct simulation. These are compared with experimental results for argon at M = 7.18 and for helium at M = 1.59 and 20. For both argon and helium, the variable-hard-sphere (VHS) model is used for the elastic scattering cross section, with the velocity dependence derived from a viscosity-temperature power-law relationship in the way normally used by Bird (1976).

Size distribution spectrum of noninertial particles in turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, Izumi; Gotoh, Toshiyuki; Watanabe, Takeshi

2018-05-01

Collision-coalescence growth of noninertial particles in three-dimensional homogeneous isotropic turbulence is studied. Smoluchowski's coagulation equation describes the evolution of the size distribution of particles in this system. By applying a methodology based on turbulence theory, the equation is shown to have a steady-state solution, which corresponds to the Kolmogorov-type power-law spectrum. Direct numerical simulations of turbulence and Lagrangian particles are conducted. The result shows that the size distribution in a statistically steady state agrees accurately with the theoretical prediction.

Power maximization of a point absorber wave energy converter using improved model predictive control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milani, Farideh; Moghaddam, Reihaneh Kardehi

2017-08-01

This paper considers controlling and maximizing the absorbed power of wave energy converters for irregular waves. With respect to physical constraints of the system, a model predictive control is applied. Irregular waves' behavior is predicted by Kalman filter method. Owing to the great influence of controller parameters on the absorbed power, these parameters are optimized by imperialist competitive algorithm. The results illustrate the method's efficiency in maximizing the extracted power in the presence of unknown excitation force which should be predicted by Kalman filter.

A test-bed modeling study for wave resource assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z.; Neary, V. S.; Wang, T.; Gunawan, B.; Dallman, A.

2016-02-01

Hindcasts from phase-averaged wave models are commonly used to estimate standard statistics used in wave energy resource assessments. However, the research community and wave energy converter industry is lacking a well-documented and consistent modeling approach for conducting these resource assessments at different phases of WEC project development, and at different spatial scales, e.g., from small-scale pilot study to large-scale commercial deployment. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate current wave model codes, as well as limitations and knowledge gaps for predicting sea states, in order to establish best wave modeling practices, and to identify future research needs to improve wave prediction for resource assessment. This paper presents the first phase of an on-going modeling study to address these concerns. The modeling study is being conducted at a test-bed site off the Central Oregon Coast using two of the most widely-used third-generation wave models - WaveWatchIII and SWAN. A nested-grid modeling approach, with domain dimension ranging from global to regional scales, was used to provide wave spectral boundary condition to a local scale model domain, which has a spatial dimension around 60km by 60km and a grid resolution of 250m - 300m. Model results simulated by WaveWatchIII and SWAN in a structured-grid framework are compared to NOAA wave buoy data for the six wave parameters, including omnidirectional wave power, significant wave height, energy period, spectral width, direction of maximum directionally resolved wave power, and directionality coefficient. Model performance and computational efficiency are evaluated, and the best practices for wave resource assessments are discussed, based on a set of standard error statistics and model run times.

FINAL REPORT: Mechanistically-Base Field Scale Models of Uranium Biogeochemistry from Upscaling Pore-Scale Experiments and Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, Brian D.

2013-11-04

Biogeochemical reactive transport processes in the subsurface environment are important to many contemporary environmental issues of significance to DOE. Quantification of risks and impacts associated with environmental management options, and design of remediation systems where needed, require that we have at our disposal reliable predictive tools (usually in the form of numerical simulation models). However, it is well known that even the most sophisticated reactive transport models available today have poor predictive power, particularly when applied at the field scale. Although the lack of predictive ability is associated in part with our inability to characterize the subsurface and limitations inmore » computational power, significant advances have been made in both of these areas in recent decades and can be expected to continue. In this research, we examined the upscaling (pore to Darcy and Darcy to field) the problem of bioremediation via biofilms in porous media. The principle idea was to start with a conceptual description of the bioremediation process at the pore scale, and apply upscaling methods to formally develop the appropriate upscaled model at the so-called Darcy scale. The purpose was to determine (1) what forms the upscaled models would take, and (2) how one might parameterize such upscaled models for applications to bioremediation in the field. We were able to effectively upscale the bioremediation process to explain how the pore-scale phenomena were linked to the field scale. The end product of this research was to produce a set of upscaled models that could be used to help predict field-scale bioremediation. These models were mechanistic, in the sense that they directly incorporated pore-scale information, but upscaled so that only the essential features of the process were needed to predict the effective parameters that appear in the model. In this way, a direct link between the microscale and the field scale was made, but the upscaling process helped inform potential users of the model what kinds of information would be needed to accurately characterize the system.« less

Development and design of photovoltaic power prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhijia; Zhou, Hai; Cheng, Xu

2018-02-01

In order to reduce the impact of power grid safety caused by volatility and randomness of the energy produced in photovoltaic power plants, this paper puts forward a construction scheme on photovoltaic power generation prediction system, introducing the technical requirements, system configuration and function of each module, and discussing the main technical features of the platform software development. The scheme has been applied in many PV power plants in the northwest of China. It shows that the system can produce reasonable prediction results, providing a right guidance for dispatching and efficient running for PV power plant.

Modified ensemble Kalman filter for nuclear accident atmospheric dispersion: prediction improved and source estimated.

PubMed

Zhang, X L; Su, G F; Yuan, H Y; Chen, J G; Huang, Q Y

2014-09-15

Atmospheric dispersion models play an important role in nuclear power plant accident management. A reliable estimation of radioactive material distribution in short range (about 50 km) is in urgent need for population sheltering and evacuation planning. However, the meteorological data and the source term which greatly influence the accuracy of the atmospheric dispersion models are usually poorly known at the early phase of the emergency. In this study, a modified ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation method in conjunction with a Lagrangian puff-model is proposed to simultaneously improve the model prediction and reconstruct the source terms for short range atmospheric dispersion using the off-site environmental monitoring data. Four main uncertainty parameters are considered: source release rate, plume rise height, wind speed and wind direction. Twin experiments show that the method effectively improves the predicted concentration distribution, and the temporal profiles of source release rate and plume rise height are also successfully reconstructed. Moreover, the time lag in the response of ensemble Kalman filter is shortened. The method proposed here can be a useful tool not only in the nuclear power plant accident emergency management but also in other similar situation where hazardous material is released into the atmosphere. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Research update: Prediction of high figure of merit plateau in SnS and solid solution of (Pb,Sn)S

DOE PAGES

Hao, Shiqiang; Dravid, Vinayak P.; Kanatzidis, Mercouri G.; ...

2016-10-17

Direct conversion between thermal and electrical energy can be achieved by thermoelectric materials, which provide a viable route for power generation and solid state refrigeration. Here, we use a combination of energetic, electronic, and vibrational first-principles based results to predict the figure of merit performance in hole doped single crystals of SnS and (Pb,Sn)S. We find high ZT values for both materials, specifically for (Pb,Sn)S along the b-axis. Both SnS and (Pb,Sn)S have excellent power factors when doped, due to a combination of increased electrical conductivity (due to doping) and a significantly enhanced Seebeck coefficient obtained by a doping-induced multibandmore » effect. Anharmonic phonon calculations combined with a Debye-Calloway model show that the lattice thermal conductivity of both compounds is low, due to intrinsic anharmonicity, and is lowered further by the random, solid solution nature of the cation sublattice of (Pb,Sn)S. (Pb,Sn)S exhibits a high ZT plateau ranging from 1.3 at 300 K to 1.9 at 800 K. Finally, the overall ZT of the hole doped (Pb,Sn)S crystals is predicted to outperform most of the current state-of-the-art thermoelectric sulfide materials.« less

Research update: Prediction of high figure of merit plateau in SnS and solid solution of (Pb,Sn)S

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hao, Shiqiang; Dravid, Vinayak P.; Kanatzidis, Mercouri G.

Direct conversion between thermal and electrical energy can be achieved by thermoelectric materials, which provide a viable route for power generation and solid state refrigeration. Here, we use a combination of energetic, electronic, and vibrational first-principles based results to predict the figure of merit performance in hole doped single crystals of SnS and (Pb,Sn)S. We find high ZT values for both materials, specifically for (Pb,Sn)S along the b-axis. Both SnS and (Pb,Sn)S have excellent power factors when doped, due to a combination of increased electrical conductivity (due to doping) and a significantly enhanced Seebeck coefficient obtained by a doping-induced multibandmore » effect. Anharmonic phonon calculations combined with a Debye-Calloway model show that the lattice thermal conductivity of both compounds is low, due to intrinsic anharmonicity, and is lowered further by the random, solid solution nature of the cation sublattice of (Pb,Sn)S. (Pb,Sn)S exhibits a high ZT plateau ranging from 1.3 at 300 K to 1.9 at 800 K. Finally, the overall ZT of the hole doped (Pb,Sn)S crystals is predicted to outperform most of the current state-of-the-art thermoelectric sulfide materials.« less

Constraints on the gluon PDF from top quark pair production at hadron colliders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czakon, Michal; Mangano, Michelangelo L.; Mitov, Alexander; Rojo, Juan

2013-07-01

Using the recently derived NNLO cross sections [1], we provide NNLO+NNLL theoretical predictions for top quark pair production based on all the available NNLO PDF sets, and compare them with the most precise LHC and Tevatron data. In this comparison we study in detail the PDF uncertainty and the scale, m t and α s dependence of the theoretical predictions for each PDF set. Next, we observe that top quark pair production provides a powerful direct constraint on the gluon PDF at large x, and include Tevatron and LHC top pair data consistently into a global NNLO PDF fit. We then explore the phenomenological consequences of the reduced gluon PDF uncertainties, by showing how they can improve predictions for Beyond the Standard Model processes at the LHC. Finally, we update to full NNLO+NNLL the theoretical predictions for the ratio of top quark cross sections between different LHC center of mass energies, as well as the cross sections for hypothetical heavy fourth-generation quark production at the LHC.

Parameter Estimation for a Pulsating Turbulent Buoyant Jet Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christopher, Jason; Wimer, Nicholas; Lapointe, Caelan; Hayden, Torrey; Grooms, Ian; Rieker, Greg; Hamlington, Peter

2017-11-01

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a powerful tool that allows sparse experimental or other ``truth'' data to be used for the prediction of unknown parameters, such as flow properties and boundary conditions, in numerical simulations of real-world engineering systems. Here we introduce the ABC approach and then use ABC to predict unknown inflow conditions in simulations of a two-dimensional (2D) turbulent, high-temperature buoyant jet. For this test case, truth data are obtained from a direct numerical simulation (DNS) with known boundary conditions and problem parameters, while the ABC procedure utilizes lower fidelity large eddy simulations. Using spatially-sparse statistics from the 2D buoyant jet DNS, we show that the ABC method provides accurate predictions of true jet inflow parameters. The success of the ABC approach in the present test suggests that ABC is a useful and versatile tool for predicting flow information, such as boundary conditions, that can be difficult to determine experimentally.

Real estate value prediction using multivariate regression models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manjula, R.; Jain, Shubham; Srivastava, Sharad; Rajiv Kher, Pranav

2017-11-01

The real estate market is one of the most competitive in terms of pricing and the same tends to vary significantly based on a lot of factors, hence it becomes one of the prime fields to apply the concepts of machine learning to optimize and predict the prices with high accuracy. Therefore in this paper, we present various important features to use while predicting housing prices with good accuracy. We have described regression models, using various features to have lower Residual Sum of Squares error. While using features in a regression model some feature engineering is required for better prediction. Often a set of features (multiple regressions) or polynomial regression (applying a various set of powers in the features) is used for making better model fit. For these models are expected to be susceptible towards over fitting ridge regression is used to reduce it. This paper thus directs to the best application of regression models in addition to other techniques to optimize the result.

Predicting perturbation patterns from the topology of biological networks.

PubMed

Santolini, Marc; Barabási, Albert-László

2018-06-20

High-throughput technologies, offering an unprecedented wealth of quantitative data underlying the makeup of living systems, are changing biology. Notably, the systematic mapping of the relationships between biochemical entities has fueled the rapid development of network biology, offering a suitable framework to describe disease phenotypes and predict potential drug targets. However, our ability to develop accurate dynamical models remains limited, due in part to the limited knowledge of the kinetic parameters underlying these interactions. Here, we explore the degree to which we can make reasonably accurate predictions in the absence of the kinetic parameters. We find that simple dynamically agnostic models are sufficient to recover the strength and sign of the biochemical perturbation patterns observed in 87 biological models for which the underlying kinetics are known. Surprisingly, a simple distance-based model achieves 65% accuracy. We show that this predictive power is robust to topological and kinetic parameter perturbations, and we identify key network properties that can increase up to 80% the recovery rate of the true perturbation patterns. We validate our approach using experimental data on the chemotactic pathway in bacteria, finding that a network model of perturbation spreading predicts with ∼80% accuracy the directionality of gene expression and phenotype changes in knock-out and overproduction experiments. These findings show that the steady advances in mapping out the topology of biochemical interaction networks opens avenues for accurate perturbation spread modeling, with direct implications for medicine and drug development.

Directional kriging implementation for gridded data interpolation and comparative study with common methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmoudabadi, H.; Briggs, G.

2016-12-01

Gridded data sets, such as geoid models or datum shift grids, are commonly used in coordinate transformation algorithms. Grid files typically contain known or measured values at regular fixed intervals. The process of computing a value at an unknown location from the values in the grid data set is called "interpolation". Generally, interpolation methods predict a value at a given point by computing a weighted average of the known values in the neighborhood of the point. Geostatistical Kriging is a widely used interpolation method for irregular networks. Kriging interpolation first analyzes the spatial structure of the input data, then generates a general model to describe spatial dependencies. This model is used to calculate values at unsampled locations by finding direction, shape, size, and weight of neighborhood points. Because it is based on a linear formulation for the best estimation, Kriging it the optimal interpolation method in statistical terms. The Kriging interpolation algorithm produces an unbiased prediction, as well as the ability to calculate the spatial distribution of uncertainty, allowing you to estimate the errors in an interpolation for any particular point. Kriging is not widely used in geospatial applications today, especially applications that run on low power devices or deal with large data files. This is due to the computational power and memory requirements of standard Kriging techniques. In this paper, improvements are introduced in directional kriging implementation by taking advantage of the structure of the grid files. The regular spacing of points simplifies finding the neighborhood points and computing their pairwise distances, reducing the the complexity and improving the execution time of the Kriging algorithm. Also, the proposed method iteratively loads small portion of interest areas in different directions to reduce the amount of required memory. This makes the technique feasible on almost any computer processor. Comparison between kriging and other standard interpolation methods demonstrated more accurate estimations in less denser data files.

An algorithm for direct causal learning of influences on patient outcomes.

PubMed

Rathnam, Chandramouli; Lee, Sanghoon; Jiang, Xia

2017-01-01

This study aims at developing and introducing a new algorithm, called direct causal learner (DCL), for learning the direct causal influences of a single target. We applied it to both simulated and real clinical and genome wide association study (GWAS) datasets and compared its performance to classic causal learning algorithms. The DCL algorithm learns the causes of a single target from passive data using Bayesian-scoring, instead of using independence checks, and a novel deletion algorithm. We generate 14,400 simulated datasets and measure the number of datasets for which DCL correctly and partially predicts the direct causes. We then compare its performance with the constraint-based path consistency (PC) and conservative PC (CPC) algorithms, the Bayesian-score based fast greedy search (FGS) algorithm, and the partial ancestral graphs algorithm fast causal inference (FCI). In addition, we extend our comparison of all five algorithms to both a real GWAS dataset and real breast cancer datasets over various time-points in order to observe how effective they are at predicting the causal influences of Alzheimer's disease and breast cancer survival. DCL consistently outperforms FGS, PC, CPC, and FCI in discovering the parents of the target for the datasets simulated using a simple network. Overall, DCL predicts significantly more datasets correctly (McNemar's test significance: p<0.0001) than any of the other algorithms for these network types. For example, when assessing overall performance (simple and complex network results combined), DCL correctly predicts approximately 1400 more datasets than the top FGS method, 1600 more datasets than the top CPC method, 4500 more datasets than the top PC method, and 5600 more datasets than the top FCI method. Although FGS did correctly predict more datasets than DCL for the complex networks, and DCL correctly predicted only a few more datasets than CPC for these networks, there is no significant difference in performance between these three algorithms for this network type. However, when we use a more continuous measure of accuracy, we find that all the DCL methods are able to better partially predict more direct causes than FGS and CPC for the complex networks. In addition, DCL consistently had faster runtimes than the other algorithms. In the application to the real datasets, DCL identified rs6784615, located on the NISCH gene, and rs10824310, located on the PRKG1 gene, as direct causes of late onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) development. In addition, DCL identified ER category as a direct predictor of breast cancer mortality within 5 years, and HER2 status as a direct predictor of 10-year breast cancer mortality. These predictors have been identified in previous studies to have a direct causal relationship with their respective phenotypes, supporting the predictive power of DCL. When the other algorithms discovered predictors from the real datasets, these predictors were either also found by DCL or could not be supported by previous studies. Our results show that DCL outperforms FGS, PC, CPC, and FCI in almost every case, demonstrating its potential to advance causal learning. Furthermore, our DCL algorithm effectively identifies direct causes in the LOAD and Metabric GWAS datasets, which indicates its potential for clinical applications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Locust displacing winds in eastern Australia reassessed with observations from an insect monitoring radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zhenhua; Drake, V. Alistair; Sidhu, Leesa; Taylor, John R.

2017-12-01

Based on previous investigations, adult Australian plague locusts are believed to migrate on warm nights (with evening temperatures >25 °C), provided daytime flight is suppressed by surface winds greater than the locusts' flight speed, which has been shown to be 3.1 m s-1. Moreover, adult locusts are believed to undertake briefer `dispersal' flights on nights with evening temperature >20 °C. To reassess the utility of these conditions for forecasting locust flight, contingency tests were conducted comparing the nights selected on these bases (predicted nights) for the months of November, January, and March and the nights when locust migration were detected with an insect monitoring radar (actual nights) over a 7-year period. In addition, the wind direction distributions and mean wind directions on all predicted nights and actual nights were compared. Observations at around 395 m above ground level (AGL), the height at which radar observations have shown that the greatest number of locusts fly, were used to determine the actual nights. Tests and comparisons were also made for a second height, 990 m AGL, as this was used in the previous investigation. Our analysis shows that the proposed criteria are successful from predicting migratory flight only in March, when the surface temperature is effective as a predicting factor. Surface wind speed has no predicting power. It is suggested that a strong daytime surface wind speed requirement should not be considered and other meteorological variables need to be added to the requirement of a warm surface temperature around dusk for the predictions to have much utility.

Symbiotic theory of the origin of eukaryotic organelles; criteria for proof.

PubMed

Margulis, L

1975-01-01

The purpose of a scientific theory is to unite apparently disparate observations into a coherent set of generalizations with predictive power. Historical theories, which necessarily treat complex irreversible events, can never be directly tested. However they certainly can lead to predictions. The 'extreme' version of the serial endosymbiotic theory argues that three classes of eukaryotic organelles had free-living ancestors: mitochondria, basal bodies/flagella/cilia [(9 + 2) homologues] and photosynthetic plastids. Many lines of evidence support this theory and can be interpreted in relation to one another on the basis of this theory. Even if this theory should eventually be proved wrong it has the real advantage of generating a large number of unique experimentally verifiable hypotheses.

Continuum Electrostatics Approaches to Calculating pKas and Ems in Proteins

PubMed Central

Gunner, MR; Baker, Nathan A.

2017-01-01

Proteins change their charge state through protonation and redox reactions as well as through binding charged ligands. The free energy of these reactions are dominated by solvation and electrostatic energies and modulated by protein conformational relaxation in response to the ionization state changes. Although computational methods for calculating these interactions can provide very powerful tools for predicting protein charge states, they include several critical approximations of which users should be aware. This chapter discusses the strengths, weaknesses, and approximations of popular computational methods for predicting charge states and understanding their underlying electrostatic interactions. The goal of this chapter is to inform users about applications and potential caveats of these methods as well as outline directions for future theoretical and computational research. PMID:27497160

Managing PV Power on Mars - MER Rovers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stella, Paul M.; Chin, Keith; Wood, Eric; Herman, Jennifer; Ewell, Richard

2009-01-01

The MER Rovers have recently completed over 5 years of operation! This is a remarkable demonstration of the capabilities of PV power on the Martian surface. The extended mission required the development of an efficient process to predict the power available to the rovers on a day-to-day basis. The performance of the MER solar arrays is quite unlike that of any other Space array and perhaps more akin to Terrestrial PV operation, although even severe by that comparison. The impact of unpredictable factors, such as atmospheric conditions and dust accumulation (and removal) on the panels limits the accurate prediction of array power to short time spans. Based on the above, it is clear that long term power predictions are not sufficiently accurate to allow for detailed long term planning. Instead, the power assessment is essentially a daily activity, effectively resetting the boundary points for the overall predictive power model. A typical analysis begins with the importing of the telemetry from each rover's previous day's power subsystem activities. This includes the array power generated, battery state-of-charge, rover power loads, and rover orientation, all as functions of time. The predicted performance for that day is compared to the actual performance to identify the extent of any differences. The model is then corrected for these changes. Details of JPL's MER power analysis procedure are presented, including the description of steps needed to provide the final prediction for the mission planners. A dust cleaning event of the solar array is also highlighted to illustrate the impact of Martian weather on solar array performance

Quantitative structure-activity relationship models that stand the test of time.

PubMed

Davis, Andrew M; Wood, David J

2013-04-01

The pharmaceutical industry is in a period of intense change. While this has many drivers, attrition through the development process continues to be an important pressure. The emerging definitions of "compound quality" that are based on retrospective analyses of developmental attrition have highlighted a new direction for medicinal chemistry and the paradigm of "quality at the point of design". The time has come for retrospective analyses to catalyze prospective action. Quality at the point of design places pressure on the quality of our predictive models. Empirical QSAR models when built with care provide true predictive control, but their accuracy and precision can be improved. Here we describe AstraZeneca's experience of automation in QSAR model building and validation, and how an informatics system can provide a step-change in predictive power to project design teams, if they choose to use it.

Kantian fractionalization predicts the conflict propensity of the international system.

PubMed

Cranmer, Skyler J; Menninga, Elizabeth J; Mucha, Peter J

2015-09-22

Network science has spurred a reexamination of relational phenomena in political science, including the study of international conflict. We introduce a new direction to the study of conflict by showing that the multiplex fractionalization of the international system along three key dimensions is a powerful predictor of the propensity for violent interstate conflict. Even after controlling for well-established conflict indicators, our new measure contributes more to model fit for interstate conflict than all of the previously established measures combined. Moreover, joint democracy plays little, if any, role in predicting system stability, thus challenging perhaps the major empirical finding of the international relations literature. Lastly, the temporal variability of our measure with conflict is consistent with a causal relationship. Our results have real-world policy implications as changes in our fractionalization measure substantially aid the prediction of conflict up to 10 years into the future, allowing it to serve as an early warning sign of international instability.

Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

MCKissick, Burnell T. (Technical Monitor); Plassman, Gerald E.; Mall, Gerald H.; Quagliano, John R.

2005-01-01

Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

Enriching peptide libraries for binding affinity and specificity through computationally directed library design

PubMed Central

Foight, Glenna Wink; Chen, T. Scott; Richman, Daniel; Keating, Amy E.

2017-01-01

Peptide reagents with high affinity or specificity for their target protein interaction partner are of utility for many important applications. Optimization of peptide binding by screening large libraries is a proven and powerful approach. Libraries designed to be enriched in peptide sequences that are predicted to have desired affinity or specificity characteristics are more likely to yield success than random mutagenesis. We present a library optimization method in which the choice of amino acids to encode at each peptide position can be guided by available experimental data or structure-based predictions. We discuss how to use analysis of predicted library performance to inform rounds of library design. Finally, we include protocols for more complex library design procedures that consider the chemical diversity of the amino acids at each peptide position and optimize a library score based on a user-specified input model. PMID:28236241

Enriching Peptide Libraries for Binding Affinity and Specificity Through Computationally Directed Library Design.

PubMed

Foight, Glenna Wink; Chen, T Scott; Richman, Daniel; Keating, Amy E

2017-01-01

Peptide reagents with high affinity or specificity for their target protein interaction partner are of utility for many important applications. Optimization of peptide binding by screening large libraries is a proven and powerful approach. Libraries designed to be enriched in peptide sequences that are predicted to have desired affinity or specificity characteristics are more likely to yield success than random mutagenesis. We present a library optimization method in which the choice of amino acids to encode at each peptide position can be guided by available experimental data or structure-based predictions. We discuss how to use analysis of predicted library performance to inform rounds of library design. Finally, we include protocols for more complex library design procedures that consider the chemical diversity of the amino acids at each peptide position and optimize a library score based on a user-specified input model.

Ultra-fast consensus of discrete-time multi-agent systems with multi-step predictive output feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenle; Liu, Jianchang

2016-04-01

This article addresses the ultra-fast consensus problem of high-order discrete-time multi-agent systems based on a unified consensus framework. A novel multi-step predictive output mechanism is proposed under a directed communication topology containing a spanning tree. By predicting the outputs of a network several steps ahead and adding this information into the consensus protocol, it is shown that the asymptotic convergence factor is improved by a power of q + 1 compared to the routine consensus. The difficult problem of selecting the optimal control gain is solved well by introducing a variable called convergence step. In addition, the ultra-fast formation achievement is studied on the basis of this new consensus protocol. Finally, the ultra-fast consensus with respect to a reference model and robust consensus is discussed. Some simulations are performed to illustrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results.

Computational Simulation of Thermal and Spattering Phenomena and Microstructure in Selective Laser Melting of Inconel 625

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Özel, Tuğrul; Arısoy, Yiğit M.; Criales, Luis E.

Computational modelling of Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) processes such as Selective laser Melting (SLM) can reveal information that is hard to obtain or unobtainable by in-situ experimental measurements. A 3D thermal field that is not visible by the thermal camera can be obtained by solving the 3D heat transfer problem. Furthermore, microstructural modelling can be used to predict the quality and mechanical properties of the product. In this paper, a nonlinear 3D Finite Element Method based computational code is developed to simulate the SLM process with different process parameters such as laser power and scan velocity. The code is further improved by utilizing an in-situ thermal camera recording to predict spattering which is in turn included as a stochastic heat loss. Then, thermal gradients extracted from the simulations applied to predict growth directions in the resulting microstructure.

Supersonic jet noise - Its generation, prediction and effects on people and structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Preisser, J. S.; Golub, R. A.; Seiner, J. M.; Powell, C. A.

1990-01-01

This paper presents the results of a study aimed at quantifying the effects of jet source noise reduction, increases in aircraft lift, and reduced aircraft thrust on the take-off noise associated with supersonic civil transports. Supersonic jet noise sources are first described, and their frequency and directivity dependence are defined. The study utilizes NASA's Aircraft Noise Prediction Program in a parametric study to weigh the relative benefits of several approaches to low noise. The baseline aircraft concept used in these predictions is the AST-205-1 powered by GE21/J11-B14A scaled engines. Noise assessment is presented in terms of effective perceived noise levels at the FAA's centerline and sideline measuring locations for current subsonic aircraft, and in terms of audiologically perceived sound of people and other indirect effects. The results show that significant noise benefit can be achieved through proper understanding and utilization of all available approaches.

NASA's Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project Unveils a New Geospatial Data Portal

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-03-16

NASA's Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project Unveils a New Geospatial Data Portal ... current POWER home page. The new POWER will include improved solar and meteorological data with all parameters available on a 0.5-degree ...

The Topology of Large-Scale Structure in the 1.2 Jy IRAS Redshift Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Protogeros, Zacharias A. M.; Weinberg, David H.

1997-11-01

We measure the topology (genus) of isodensity contour surfaces in volume-limited subsets of the 1.2 Jy IRAS redshift survey, for smoothing scales λ = 4, 7, and 12 h-1 Mpc. At 12 h-1 Mpc, the observed genus curve has a symmetric form similar to that predicted for a Gaussian random field. At the shorter smoothing lengths, the observed genus curve shows a modest shift in the direction of an isolated cluster or ``meatball'' topology. We use mock catalogs drawn from cosmological N-body simulations to investigate the systematic biases that affect topology measurements in samples of this size and to determine the full covariance matrix of the expected random errors. We incorporate the error correlations into our evaluations of theoretical models, obtaining both frequentist assessments of absolute goodness of fit and Bayesian assessments of models' relative likelihoods. We compare the observed topology of the 1.2 Jy survey to the predictions of dynamically evolved, unbiased, gravitational instability models that have Gaussian initial conditions. The model with an n = -1 power-law initial power spectrum achieves the best overall agreement with the data, though models with a low-density cold dark matter power spectrum and an n = 0 power-law spectrum are also consistent. The observed topology is inconsistent with an initially Gaussian model that has n = -2, and it is strongly inconsistent with a Voronoi foam model, which has a non-Gaussian, bubble topology.

A study of the vibrational energies of two coupled beams by finite element and green function (receptance) methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shankar, K.; Keane, A. J.

1995-04-01

The behaviour of two hinged-hinged beams, point coupled by springs (translational, rotary and a combination of both) with weak to strong coupling is studied from the point of view of vibrational energies, input power and power transferred through the coupling. Two configurations are studied: in the first case the beams are placed parallel to each other and only the transverse, Euler-Bernoulli modes are considered; the second configuration is more complicated with the beams placed perpendicular to each other, executing axial as well as transverse vibrations. These models are studied by using a finite element analysis (FEA) package and, alternatively, via the modally derived Green functions of the uncoupled subsystems. In both cases the beams are given proportional damping and one of the beams is driven by a point harmonic force. The effects of coupling stiffness and modal summation bandwidth are studied. It is shown that there is good agreement between the FEA and the Green function approach over a range of coupling strengths, but that at higher strengths the number of uncoupled modes used significantly affects the accuracy of the Green function method used here. The beams in the second configuration are then further studied from the point of view of SEA coupling loss factors. The frequency averaged coupling loss factors are calculated for weak and strong coupling, first by using a power injection method, where the power balance equations are formed on the assumption of only direct coupling loss factors. Then, the entire matrix of direct and indirect coupling loss factors is derived by using a deterministic modal approach. These are compared and the indirect coupling loss factors are found to be significant in magnitude in respect to the direct coupling loss factors. Several cases are studied in which the coupling powers and energy levels are predicted by using only the direct coupling loss factors and compared with the exact results obtained by using both direct and indirect factors. These agree only under certain conditions for weak coupling and show rather poorer agreement in the case of strong coupling. This behaviour demonstrates the importance of taking into account indirect coupling loss factors in SEA models having several subsystems.

Communal and Agentic Interpersonal and Intergroup Motives Predict Preferences for Status Versus Power.

PubMed

Locke, Kenneth D; Heller, Sonja

2017-01-01

Seven studies involving 1,343 participants showed how circumplex models of social motives can help explain individual differences in preferences for status (having others' admiration) versus power (controlling valuable resources). Studies 1 to 3 and 7 concerned interpersonal motives in workplace contexts, and found that stronger communal motives (to have mutual trust, support, and cooperation) predicted being more attracted to status (but not power) and achieving more workplace status, while stronger agentic motives (to be firm, decisive, and influential) predicted being more attracted to and achieving more workplace power, and experiencing a stronger connection between workplace power and job satisfaction. Studies 4 to 6 found similar effects for intergroup motives: Stronger communal motives predicted wanting one's ingroup (e.g., country) to have status-but not power-relative to other groups. Finally, most people preferred status over power, and this was especially true for women, which was partially explained by women having stronger communal motives.

Enhanced air dispersion modelling at a typical Chinese nuclear power plant site: Coupling RIMPUFF with two advanced diagnostic wind models.

PubMed

Liu, Yun; Li, Hong; Sun, Sida; Fang, Sheng

2017-09-01

An enhanced air dispersion modelling scheme is proposed to cope with the building layout and complex terrain of a typical Chinese nuclear power plant (NPP) site. In this modelling, the California Meteorological Model (CALMET) and the Stationary Wind Fit and Turbulence (SWIFT) are coupled with the Risø Mesoscale PUFF model (RIMPUFF) for refined wind field calculation. The near-field diffusion coefficient correction scheme of the Atmospheric Relative Concentrations in the Building Wakes Computer Code (ARCON96) is adopted to characterize dispersion in building arrays. The proposed method is evaluated by a wind tunnel experiment that replicates the typical Chinese NPP site. For both wind speed/direction and air concentration, the enhanced modelling predictions agree well with the observations. The fraction of the predictions within a factor of 2 and 5 of observations exceeds 55% and 82% respectively in the building area and the complex terrain area. This demonstrates the feasibility of the new enhanced modelling for typical Chinese NPP sites. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The predictive power of local properties of financial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caraiani, Petre

2017-01-01

The literature on analyzing the dynamics of financial networks has focused so far on the predictive power of global measures of networks like entropy or index cohesive force. In this paper, I show that the local network properties have similar predictive power. I focus on key network measures like average path length, average degree or cluster coefficient, and also consider the diameter and the s-metric. Using Granger causality tests, I show that some of these measures have statistically significant prediction power with respect to the dynamics of aggregate stock market. Average path length is most robust relative to the frequency of data used or specification (index or growth rate). Most measures are found to have predictive power only for monthly frequency. Further evidences that support this view are provided through a simple regression model.

Predicting energy expenditure through hand rim propulsion power output in individuals who use wheelchairs.

PubMed

Conger, Scott A; Scott, Stacy N; Bassett, David R

2014-07-01

To examine the relationship between hand rim propulsion power and energy expenditure (EE) during wheelchair wheeling and to investigate whether adding other variables to the model could improve on the prediction of EE. Individuals who use manual wheelchairs (n=14) performed five different wheeling activities in a wheelchair with a PowerTap power meter hub built into the right rear wheel. Activities included wheeling on a smooth, level surface at three different speeds (4.5, 5.5 and 6.5 km/h), wheeling on a rubberised track at one speed (5.5 km/h) and wheeling on a sidewalk course that included uphill and downhill segments at a self-selected speed. EE was measured using a portable indirect calorimetry system. Stepwise linear regression was performed to predict EE from power output variables. A repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to compare the measured EE to the estimates from the power models. Bland-Altman plots were used to assess the agreement between the criterion values and the predicted values. EE and power were significantly correlated (r=0.694, p<0.001). Regression analysis yielded three significant prediction models utilising measured power; measured power and speed; and measured power, speed and heart rate. No significant differences were found between measured EE and any of the prediction models. EE can be accurately and precisely estimated based on hand rim propulsion power. These results indicate that power could be used as a method to assess EE in individuals who use wheelchairs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Quantitative assessment of thermodynamic constraints on the solution space of genome-scale metabolic models.

PubMed

Hamilton, Joshua J; Dwivedi, Vivek; Reed, Jennifer L

2013-07-16

Constraint-based methods provide powerful computational techniques to allow understanding and prediction of cellular behavior. These methods rely on physiochemical constraints to eliminate infeasible behaviors from the space of available behaviors. One such constraint is thermodynamic feasibility, the requirement that intracellular flux distributions obey the laws of thermodynamics. The past decade has seen several constraint-based methods that interpret this constraint in different ways, including those that are limited to small networks, rely on predefined reaction directions, and/or neglect the relationship between reaction free energies and metabolite concentrations. In this work, we utilize one such approach, thermodynamics-based metabolic flux analysis (TMFA), to make genome-scale, quantitative predictions about metabolite concentrations and reaction free energies in the absence of prior knowledge of reaction directions, while accounting for uncertainties in thermodynamic estimates. We applied TMFA to a genome-scale network reconstruction of Escherichia coli and examined the effect of thermodynamic constraints on the flux space. We also assessed the predictive performance of TMFA against gene essentiality and quantitative metabolomics data, under both aerobic and anaerobic, and optimal and suboptimal growth conditions. Based on these results, we propose that TMFA is a useful tool for validating phenotypes and generating hypotheses, and that additional types of data and constraints can improve predictions of metabolite concentrations. Copyright © 2013 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How large customer direct power transaction mode give consideration to power generation cleaning and power saving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yu; Zeng, Ming; Liu, Wei; Li, Ran

2017-05-01

The so-called Large Customers' Direct Power Transaction, refers to the mode that the users on high voltage level, or being seized of hold the large power or independent power distribution, have the qualification of purchasing electricity directly from the generation companies and pay reasonable electricity transmission and distribution fee to the power network enterprises because the transaction is through its transmission channel. The Direct Purchase promotes the marketization level of electricity trading, but there are some problems in its developing process, especially whether promotes the green optimal allocation of power resources, this paper aims to explore the solution.

The impact of frequency on the performance of microwave ablation.

PubMed

Sawicki, James F; Shea, Jacob D; Behdad, Nader; Hagness, Susan C

2017-02-01

The use of higher frequencies in percutaneous microwave ablation (MWA) may offer compelling interstitial antenna design advantages over the 915 MHz and 2.45 GHz frequencies typically employed in current systems. To evaluate the impact of higher frequencies on ablation performance, we conducted a comprehensive computational and experimental study of microwave absorption and tissue heating as a function of frequency. We performed electromagnetic and thermal simulations of MWA in ex vivo and in vivo porcine muscle at discrete frequencies in the 1.9-26 GHz range. Ex vivo ablation experiments were performed in the 1.9-18 GHz range. We tracked the size of the ablation zone across frequency for constant input power and ablation duration. Further, we conducted simulations to investigate antenna feed line heating as a function of frequency, input power, and cable diameter. As the frequency was increased from 1.9 to 26 GHz the resulting ablation zone dimensions decreased in the longitudinal direction while remaining relatively constant in the radial direction; thus at higher frequencies the overall ablation zone was more spherical. However, cable heating at higher frequencies became more problematic for smaller diameter cables at constant input power. Comparably sized ablation zones are achievable well above 1.9 GHz, despite increasingly localised power absorption. Specific absorption rate alone does not accurately predict ablation performance, particularly at higher frequencies where thermal diffusion plays an important role. Cable heating due to ohmic losses at higher frequencies may be controlled through judicious choices of input power and cable diameter.

Link prediction with node clustering coefficient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Zhihao; Lin, Youfang; Wang, Jing; Gregory, Steve

2016-06-01

Predicting missing links in incomplete complex networks efficiently and accurately is still a challenging problem. The recently proposed Cannistrai-Alanis-Ravai (CAR) index shows the power of local link/triangle information in improving link-prediction accuracy. Inspired by the idea of employing local link/triangle information, we propose a new similarity index with more local structure information. In our method, local link/triangle structure information can be conveyed by clustering coefficient of common-neighbors directly. The reason why clustering coefficient has good effectiveness in estimating the contribution of a common-neighbor is that it employs links existing between neighbors of a common-neighbor and these links have the same structural position with the candidate link to this common-neighbor. In our experiments, three estimators: precision, AUP and AUC are used to evaluate the accuracy of link prediction algorithms. Experimental results on ten tested networks drawn from various fields show that our new index is more effective in predicting missing links than CAR index, especially for networks with low correlation between number of common-neighbors and number of links between common-neighbors.

Population impact of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia: a nationwide study.

PubMed

Sørensen, Holger J; Nielsen, Philip R; Pedersen, Carsten B; Benros, Michael E; Nordentoft, Merete; Mortensen, Preben B

2014-03-01

Although several studies have examined the relative contributions of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia, few have additionally examined the predictive power on the individual level and simultaneously examined the population impact associated with a wide range of familial and environmental risk factors. The authors present rate ratios (IRR), population-attributable risks (PAR) and sex-specific cumulative incidences of the following risk factors: parental history of mental illness, urban place of birth, advanced paternal age, parental loss and immigration status. We established a population-based cohort of 2,486,646million persons born in Denmark between 1 January 1955 and 31 December 1993 using Danish registers. We found that PAR associated with urban birth was 11.73%; PAR associated with one, respectively 2, parent(s) with schizophrenia was 2.67% and 0.12%. PAR associated with second-generation immigration was 0.70%. Highest cumulative incidence (CI=20.23%; 95% CI=18.10-22.62) was found in male offspring of 2 parents with schizophrenia. Cumulative incidences for male offspring or female offspring of a parent with schizophrenia were 9.53% (95% CI=7.71-11.79), and 4.89%, (95% CI 4.50-5.31). The study showed that risk factors with highest predictive power on the individual level have a relatively low population impact. The challenge in future studies with direct genetic data is to examine gene-environmental interactions that can move research beyond current approaches and seek to achieve higher predictive power on the individual level and higher population impact. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conditional power and predictive power based on right censored data with supplementary auxiliary information.

PubMed

Sun, Libo; Wan, Ying

2018-04-22

Conditional power and predictive power provide estimates of the probability of success at the end of the trial based on the information from the interim analysis. The observed value of the time to event endpoint at the interim analysis could be biased for the true treatment effect due to early censoring, leading to a biased estimate of conditional power and predictive power. In such cases, the estimates and inference for this right censored primary endpoint are enhanced by incorporating a fully observed auxiliary variable. We assume a bivariate normal distribution of the transformed primary variable and a correlated auxiliary variable. Simulation studies are conducted that not only shows enhanced conditional power and predictive power but also can provide the framework for a more efficient futility interim analysis in terms of an improved accuracy in estimator, a smaller inflation in type II error and an optimal timing for such analysis. We also illustrated the new approach by a real clinical trial example. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The predictive power of Japanese candlestick charting in Chinese stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shi; Bao, Si; Zhou, Yu

2016-09-01

This paper studies the predictive power of 4 popular pairs of two-day bullish and bearish Japanese candlestick patterns in Chinese stock market. Based on Morris' study, we give the quantitative details of definition of long candlestick, which is important in two-day candlestick pattern recognition but ignored by several previous researches, and we further give the quantitative definitions of these four pairs of two-day candlestick patterns. To test the predictive power of candlestick patterns on short-term price movement, we propose the definition of daily average return to alleviate the impact of correlation among stocks' overlap-time returns in statistical tests. To show the robustness of our result, two methods of trend definition are used for both the medium-market-value and large-market-value sample sets. We use Step-SPA test to correct for data snooping bias. Statistical results show that the predictive power differs from pattern to pattern, three of the eight patterns provide both short-term and relatively long-term prediction, another one pair only provide significant forecasting power within very short-term period, while the rest three patterns present contradictory results for different market value groups. For all the four pairs, the predictive power drops as predicting time increases, and forecasting power is stronger for stocks with medium market value than those with large market value.

The prediction of the impact of climatic factors on short-term electric power load based on the big data of smart city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Yunfei; Li, Xizhong; Zheng, Wei; Hu, Qinghe; Wei, Zhanmeng; Yue, Yaqin

2017-08-01

The climate changes have great impact on the residents’ electricity consumption, so the study on the impact of climatic factors on electric power load is of significance. In this paper, the effects of the data of temperature, rainfall and wind of smart city on short-term power load is studied to predict power load. The authors studied the relation between power load and daily temperature, rainfall and wind in the 31 days of January of one year. In the research, the authors used the Matlab neural network toolbox to establish the combinational forecasting model. The authors trained the original input data continuously to get the internal rules inside the data and used the rules to predict the daily power load in the next January. The prediction method relies on the accuracy of weather forecasting. If the weather forecasting is different from the actual weather, we need to correct the climatic factors to ensure accurate prediction.

Evaluating Upper-Body Strength and Power From a Single Test: The Ballistic Push-up.

PubMed

Wang, Ran; Hoffman, Jay R; Sadres, Eliahu; Bartolomei, Sandro; Muddle, Tyler W D; Fukuda, David H; Stout, Jeffrey R

2017-05-01

Wang, R, Hoffman, JR, Sadres, E, Bartolomei, S, Muddle, TWD, Fukuda, DH, and Stout, JR. Evaluating upper-body strength and power from a single test: the ballistic push-up. J Strength Cond Res 31(5): 1338-1345, 2017-The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability of the ballistic push-up (BPU) exercise and to develop a prediction model for both maximal strength (1 repetition maximum [1RM]) in the bench press exercise and upper-body power. Sixty recreationally active men completed a 1RM bench press and 2 BPU assessments in 3 separate testing sessions. Peak and mean force, peak and mean rate of force development, net impulse, peak velocity, flight time, and peak and mean power were determined. Intraclass correlation coefficients were used to examine the reliability of the BPU. Stepwise linear regression was used to develop 1RM bench press and power prediction equations. Intraclass correlation coefficient's ranged from 0.849 to 0.971 for the BPU measurements. Multiple regression analysis provided the following 1RM bench press prediction equation: 1RM = 0.31 × Mean Force - 1.64 × Body Mass + 0.70 (R = 0.837, standard error of the estimate [SEE] = 11 kg); time-based power prediction equation: Peak Power = 11.0 × Body Mass + 2012.3 × Flight Time - 338.0 (R = 0.658, SEE = 150 W), Mean Power = 6.7 × Body Mass + 1004.4 × Flight Time - 224.6 (R = 0.664, SEE = 82 W); and velocity-based power prediction equation: Peak Power = 8.1 × Body Mass + 818.6 × Peak Velocity - 762.0 (R = 0.797, SEE = 115 W); Mean Power = 5.2 × Body Mass + 435.9 × Peak Velocity - 467.7 (R = 0.838, SEE = 57 W). The BPU is a reliable test for both upper-body strength and power. Results indicate that the mean force generated from the BPU can be used to predict 1RM bench press, whereas peak velocity and flight time measured during the BPU can be used to predict upper-body power. These findings support the potential use of the BPU as a valid method to evaluate upper-body strength and power.

The advantages and disadvantages of centralized control of air power at operational level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arisoy, Uǧur

2014-05-01

People do not want to see and hear a war. In today's world, if war is inevitable, the use of air power is seen as the preferable means of conducting operations instead of financially burdensome land battles which are more likely to cause heavy loss of life. The use of Air Power has gained importance in NATO operations in the Post-Cold War era. For example, air power has undertaken a decisive role from the beginning to the end of the operation in Libya. From this point of view, the most important issue to consider is how to direct air power more effectively at operational level. NATO's Core JFAC (Joint Force Air Command) was established in 2012 to control joint air power at operational level from a single center. US had experienced JFAC aproach in the Operation Desert Storm in 1991. UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain are also directing their air power from their JFAC structures. Joint air power can be directed from a single center at operational level by means of JFAC. JFAC aproach provides complex planning progress of Air Power to be controled faster in a single center. An Air Power with a large number of aircrafts, long range missiles of cutting-edge technology may have difficulties in achieving results unless directed effectively. In this article, directing air power more effectively at operational level has been studied in the framework of directing air power from a single center carried out by SWOT analysis technique. "Directing Air Power at operational level from a single center similar to JFAC-like structure" is compared with "Directing Air Power at operational level from two centers similar to AC (Air Command) + CAOC (Combined Air Operations Center) structure" As a result of this study, it is assessed that directing air power at operational level from a single center would bring effectiveness to the air campaign. The study examines directing air power at operational level. Developments at political, strategic and tactical levels have been ignored.

Wind Power predictability a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of Wind Generation Turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiesen, J.; Gulstad, L.; Ristic, I.; Maric, T.

2010-09-01

Summit: The wind power predictability is often a forgotten decision and planning factor for most major wind parks, both onshore and offshore. The results of the predictability are presented after having examined a number of European offshore and offshore parks power predictability by using three(3) mesoscale model IRIE_GFS and IRIE_EC and WRF. Full description: It is well known that the potential wind production is changing with latitude and complexity in terrain, but how big are the changes in the predictability and the economic impacts on a project? The concept of meteorological predictability has hitherto to some degree been neglected as a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of wind power plants. Wind power plants are generally built in places where the wind resources are high, but these are often also sites where the predictability of the wind and other weather parameters is comparatively low. This presentation addresses the question of whether higher predictability can outweigh lower average wind speeds with regard to the overall economy of a wind power project. Low predictability also tends to reduce the value of the energy produced. If it is difficult to forecast the wind on a site, it will also be difficult to predict the power production. This, in turn, leads to increased balance costs and a less reduced carbon emission from the renewable source. By investigating the output from three(3) mesoscale models IRIE and WRF, using ECMWF and GFS as boundary data over a forecasting period of 3 months for 25 offshore and onshore wind parks in Europe, the predictability are mapped. Three operational mesoscale models with two different boundary data have been chosen in order to eliminate the uncertainty with one mesoscale model. All mesoscale models are running in a 10 km horizontal resolution. The model output are converted into "day a head" wind turbine generation forecasts by using a well proven advanced physical wind power model. The power models are using a number of weather parameters like wind speed in different heights, friction velocity and DTHV. The 25 wind sites are scattered around in Europe and contains 4 offshore parks and 21 onshore parks in various terrain complexity. The "day a head" forecasts are compared with production data and predictability for the period February 2010-April 2010 are given in Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Errors (RMSE). The power predictability results are mapped for each turbine giving a clear picture of the predictability in Europe. . Finally a economic analysis are shown for each wind parks in different regimes of predictability will be compared with regard to the balance costs that result from errors in the wind power prediction. Analysis shows that it may very well be profitable to place wind parks in regions of lower, but more predictable wind ressource. Authors: Ivan Ristic, CTO Weather2Umberlla D.O.O Tomislav Maric, Meteorologist at Global Flow Solutions Vestas Wind Technology R&D Line Gulstad, Manager Global Flow Solutions Vestas Wind Technology R&D Jesper Thiesen, CEO ConWx ApS

Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data.

PubMed

Farrer, Emily C; Ashton, Isabel W; Knape, Jonas; Suding, Katharine N

2014-04-01

Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non-additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single-factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best-fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Direct photon production and PDF fits reloaded

DOE PAGES

Campbell, John M.; Rojo, Juan; Slade, Emma; ...

2018-06-09

Direct photon production in hadronic collisions provides a handle on the gluon PDF by means of the QCD Compton scattering process. In this work we revisit the impact of direct photon production on a global PDF analysis, motivated by the recent availability of the next-to-next-to-leading (NNLO) calculation for this process. We demonstrate that the inclusion of NNLO QCD and leading-logarithmic electroweak corrections leads to a good quantitative agreement with the ATLAS measurements at 8 and 13 TeV, except for the most forward rapidity region in the former case. By including the ATLAS 8 TeV direct photon production data in themore » NNPDF3.1 NNLO global analysis, we assess its impact on the medium-x gluon. We also study the constraining power of the direct photon production measurements on PDF fits based on different datasets, in particular on the NNPDF3.1 no-LHC and collider-only fits. Here, we also present updated NNLO theoretical predictions for direct photon production at 13 TeV that include the constraints from the 8 TeV measurements.« less

Direct photon production and PDF fits reloaded

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Campbell, John M.; Rojo, Juan; Slade, Emma

Direct photon production in hadronic collisions provides a handle on the gluon PDF by means of the QCD Compton scattering process. In this work we revisit the impact of direct photon production on a global PDF analysis, motivated by the recent availability of the next-to-next-to-leading (NNLO) calculation for this process. We demonstrate that the inclusion of NNLO QCD and leading-logarithmic electroweak corrections leads to a good quantitative agreement with the ATLAS measurements at 8 and 13 TeV, except for the most forward rapidity region in the former case. By including the ATLAS 8 TeV direct photon production data in themore » NNPDF3.1 NNLO global analysis, we assess its impact on the medium-x gluon. We also study the constraining power of the direct photon production measurements on PDF fits based on different datasets, in particular on the NNPDF3.1 no-LHC and collider-only fits. Here, we also present updated NNLO theoretical predictions for direct photon production at 13 TeV that include the constraints from the 8 TeV measurements.« less

Direct photon production and PDF fits reloaded

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Campbell, John M.; Rojo, Juan; Slade, Emma

2018-02-08

Direct photon production in hadronic collisions provides a handle on the gluon PDF by means of the QCD Compton scattering process. In this work we revisit the impact of direct photon production on a global PDF analysis, motivated by the recent availability of the next-to-next-to-leading (NNLO) calculation for this process. We demonstrate that the inclusion of NNLO QCD and leading-logarithmic electroweak corrections leads to a good quantitative agreement with the ATLAS measurements at 8 TeV and 13 TeV, except for the most forward rapidity region in the former case. By including the ATLAS 8 TeV direct photon production data inmore » the NNPDF3.1 NNLO global analysis, we assess its impact on the medium-x gluon. We also study the constraining power of the direct photon production measurements on PDF fits based on different datasets, in particular on the NNPDF3.1 no-LHC and collider-only fits. We also present updated NNLO theoretical predictions for direct photon production at 13 TeV that include the constraints from the 8 TeV measurements.« less

Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abbas, Nikhar; Tom, Nathan M

2017-06-03

Wave energy converter (WEC) control strategies have been primarily focused on maximizing power absorption. The use of model predictive control strategies allows for a finite-horizon, multiterm objective function to be solved. This work utilizes a multiterm objective function to maximize power absorption while minimizing the structural loads on the WEC system. Furthermore, a Kalman filter and autoregressive model were used to estimate and forecast the wave exciting force and predict the future dynamics of the WEC. The WEC's power-take-off time-averaged power and structural loads under a perfect forecast assumption in irregular waves were compared against results obtained from the Kalmanmore » filter and autoregressive model to evaluate model predictive control performance.« less

Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abbas, Nikhar; Tom, Nathan

Wave energy converter (WEC) control strategies have been primarily focused on maximizing power absorption. The use of model predictive control strategies allows for a finite-horizon, multiterm objective function to be solved. This work utilizes a multiterm objective function to maximize power absorption while minimizing the structural loads on the WEC system. Furthermore, a Kalman filter and autoregressive model were used to estimate and forecast the wave exciting force and predict the future dynamics of the WEC. The WEC's power-take-off time-averaged power and structural loads under a perfect forecast assumption in irregular waves were compared against results obtained from the Kalmanmore » filter and autoregressive model to evaluate model predictive control performance.« less

Habits, action sequences, and reinforcement learning

PubMed Central

Dezfouli, Amir; Balleine, Bernard W.

2012-01-01

It is now widely accepted that instrumental actions can be either goal-directed or habitual; whereas the former are rapidly acquire and regulated by their outcome, the latter are reflexive, elicited by antecedent stimuli rather than their consequences. Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) provides an elegant description of goal-directed action. Through exposure to states, actions and rewards, the agent rapidly constructs a model of the world and can choose an appropriate action based on quite abstract changes in environmental and evaluative demands. This model is powerful but has a problem explaining the development of habitual actions. To account for habits, theorists have argued that another action controller is required, called model-free RL, that does not form a model of the world but rather caches action values within states allowing a state to select an action based on its reward history rather than its consequences. Nevertheless, there are persistent problems with important predictions from the model; most notably the failure of model-free RL correctly to predict the insensitivity of habitual actions to changes in the action-reward contingency. Here, we suggest that introducing model-free RL in instrumental conditioning is unnecessary and demonstrate that reconceptualizing habits as action sequences allows model-based RL to be applied to both goal-directed and habitual actions in a manner consistent with what real animals do. This approach has significant implications for the way habits are currently investigated and generates new experimental predictions. PMID:22487034

Compact Assumption Applied to the Monopole Term of Farassat's Formulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lopes, Leonard V.

2015-01-01

Farassat's formulations provide an acoustic prediction at an observer location provided a source surface, including motion and flow conditions. This paper presents compact forms for the monopole term of several of Farassat's formulations. When the physical surface is elongated, such as the case of a high aspect ratio rotorcraft blade, compact forms can be derived which are shown to be a function of the blade cross sectional area by reducing the computation from a surface integral to a line integral. The compact forms of all formulations are applied to two example cases: a short span wing with constant airfoil cross section moving at three forward flight Mach numbers and a rotor at two advance ratios. Acoustic pressure time histories and power spectral densities of monopole noise predicted from the compact forms of all the formulations at several observer positions are shown to compare very closely to the predictions from their non-compact counterparts. A study on the influence of rotorcraft blade shape on the high frequency portion of the power spectral density shows that there is a direct correlation between the aspect ratio of the airfoil and the error incurred by using the compact form. Finally, a prediction of pressure gradient from the non-compact and compact forms of the thickness term of Formulation G1A shows that using the compact forms results in a 99.6% improvement in computation time, which will be critical when noise is incorporated into a design environment.

Real time cancer prediction based on objective tissue compliance measurement in endoscopic surgery.

PubMed

Fakhry, Morkos; Bello, Fernando; Hanna, George B

2014-02-01

To investigate the feasibility of real time cancer tissue diagnosis intraoperatively based on in vivo tissue compliance measurements obtained by a recently developed laparoscopic smart device. Cancer tissue is stiffer than its normal counterpart. Modern forms of remote surgery such as laparoscopic and robotic surgical techniques diminish direct assessment of this important tissue property. In vivo human tissue compliance of the normal and cancer gastrointestinal tissue is unknown. A Clinical Real Time Tissue Compliance Mapping System (CRTCMS) with a predictive power comparable to the human hand and useable in routine surgical practice has been recently developed. The CRTCMS is employed in the operating theater to collect data from 50 patients undergoing intra-abdominal surgical interventions [40 men, 10 women, aged between 32 and 89 (mean = 66.4, range = 57)]. This includes 10 esophageal and 27 gastric cancer patients. A total of 1212 compliance measurements of normal and cancerous in vivo gastrointestinal tissues were taken. The data were used to calibrate the CRTCMS to predict cancerous tissue in a further 12 patients (3 cancer esophagus and 9 cancer stomach) involving 175 measurements. The system demonstrated a high prediction power to diagnose cancer tissue in real time during routine surgical procedures (sensitivity = 98.7%, specificity = 99%). An in vivo human tissue compliance data bank of the gastrointestinal tract was produced. Real time cancer diagnosis based on in vivo tissue compliance measurements is feasible. The reported data open new avenues in cancer diagnostics, surgical robotics, and development of more realistic surgical simulators.

Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Hybrid Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

This paper aims to develop and apply a hybrid model of two data analytical methods, multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), for ultra-short-term wind power prediction (WPP), for example taking, Northeast China electricity demand. The data was obtained from the historical records of wind power from an offshore region, and from a wind farm of the wind power plant in the areas. The WPP achieved in two stages: first, the ratios of wind power were forecasted using the proposed hybrid method, and then the transformation of these ratios of wind power to obtain forecasted values. The hybrid model combines the persistence methods, MLR and LS. The proposed method included two prediction types, multi-point prediction and single-point prediction. WPP is tested by applying different models such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN). By comparing results of the above models, the validity of the proposed hybrid model is confirmed in terms of error and correlation coefficient. Comparison of results confirmed that the proposed method works effectively. Additional, forecasting errors were also computed and compared, to improve understanding of how to depict highly variable WPP and the correlations between actual and predicted wind power.

Experimental validation of boundary element methods for noise prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seybert, A. F.; Oswald, Fred B.

1992-01-01

Experimental validation of methods to predict radiated noise is presented. A combined finite element and boundary element model was used to predict the vibration and noise of a rectangular box excited by a mechanical shaker. The predicted noise was compared to sound power measured by the acoustic intensity method. Inaccuracies in the finite element model shifted the resonance frequencies by about 5 percent. The predicted and measured sound power levels agree within about 2.5 dB. In a second experiment, measured vibration data was used with a boundary element model to predict noise radiation from the top of an operating gearbox. The predicted and measured sound power for the gearbox agree within about 3 dB.

Predicting Rediated Noise With Power Flow Finite Element Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-01

Defence R&D Canada – Atlantic DEFENCE DÉFENSE & Predicting Rediated Noise With Power Flow Finite Element Analysis D. Brennan T.S. Koko L. Jiang J...PREDICTING RADIATED NOISE WITH POWER FLOW FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS D.P. Brennan T.S. Koko L. Jiang J.C. Wallace Martec Limited Martec Limited...model- or full-scale data before it is available for general use. Brennan, D.P., Koko , T.S., Jiang, L., Wallace, J.C. 2007. Predicting Radiated

Dynamic Modeling and Very Short-term Prediction of Wind Power Output Using Box-Cox Transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Kengo; Inoue, Masaki; Murayama, Dai; Adachi, Shuichi

2016-09-01

We propose a statistical modeling method of wind power output for very short-term prediction. The modeling method with a nonlinear model has cascade structure composed of two parts. One is a linear dynamic part that is driven by a Gaussian white noise and described by an autoregressive model. The other is a nonlinear static part that is driven by the output of the linear part. This nonlinear part is designed for output distribution matching: we shape the distribution of the model output to match with that of the wind power output. The constructed model is utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the wind power output. Furthermore, we study the relation between the prediction accuracy and the prediction horizon.

Asymmetric predictability and cognitive competition in football penalty shootouts.

PubMed

Misirlisoy, Erman; Haggard, Patrick

2014-08-18

Sports provide powerful demonstrations of cognitive strategies underlying competitive behavior. Penalty shootouts in football (soccer) involve direct competition between elite players and absorb the attention of millions. The penalty shootout between Germany and England in the 1990 World Cup semifinal was viewed by an estimated 46.49% of the UK population. In a penalty shootout, a goalkeeper must defend their goal without teammate assistance while an opposing series of kickers aim to kick the ball past them into the net. As in many sports, the ball during a penalty kick often approaches too quickly for the goalkeeper to react to its direction of motion; instead, the goalkeeper must guess the likely direction of the kick, and dive in anticipation, if they are to have a chance of saving the shot. We examined all 361 kicks from the 37 penalty shootouts that occurred in World Cup and Euro Cup matches over a 36-year period from 1976 to 2012 and show that goalkeepers displayed a clear sequential bias. Following repeated kicks in the same direction, goalkeepers became increasingly likely to dive in the opposite direction on the next kick. Surprisingly, kickers failed to exploit these goalkeeper biases. Our findings highlight the importance of monitoring and predicting sequential behavior in real-world competition. Penalty shootouts pit one goalkeeper against several kickers in rapid succession. Asymmetries in the cognitive capacities of an individual versus a group could produce significant advantages over opponents. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

30 CFR 77.701-2 - Approved methods of grounding metallic frames, casings, and other enclosures of electric...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... from a direct-current power system with one polarity grounded will be approved: (1) A solid connection..., casings, and other enclosures of electric equipment receiving power from a direct-current power system. 77... enclosures of electric equipment receiving power from a direct-current power system. (a) The following...

30 CFR 75.701-3 - Approved methods of grounding metallic frames, casings and other enclosures of electric equipment...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

..., casings and other enclosures of electric equipment receiving power from direct current power systems with... equipment receiving power from direct current power systems with one polarity grounded. For the purpose of... direct-current power system with one polarity grounded, the following methods of grounding will be...

30 CFR 75.701-3 - Approved methods of grounding metallic frames, casings and other enclosures of electric equipment...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., casings and other enclosures of electric equipment receiving power from direct current power systems with... equipment receiving power from direct current power systems with one polarity grounded. For the purpose of... direct-current power system with one polarity grounded, the following methods of grounding will be...

30 CFR 77.701-2 - Approved methods of grounding metallic frames, casings, and other enclosures of electric...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... from a direct-current power system with one polarity grounded will be approved: (1) A solid connection..., casings, and other enclosures of electric equipment receiving power from a direct-current power system. 77... enclosures of electric equipment receiving power from a direct-current power system. (a) The following...

30 CFR 75.701-3 - Approved methods of grounding metallic frames, casings and other enclosures of electric equipment...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., casings and other enclosures of electric equipment receiving power from direct current power systems with... equipment receiving power from direct current power systems with one polarity grounded. For the purpose of... direct-current power system with one polarity grounded, the following methods of grounding will be...

30 CFR 75.701-3 - Approved methods of grounding metallic frames, casings and other enclosures of electric equipment...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., casings and other enclosures of electric equipment receiving power from direct current power systems with... equipment receiving power from direct current power systems with one polarity grounded. For the purpose of... direct-current power system with one polarity grounded, the following methods of grounding will be...

30 CFR 75.701-3 - Approved methods of grounding metallic frames, casings and other enclosures of electric equipment...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., casings and other enclosures of electric equipment receiving power from direct current power systems with... equipment receiving power from direct current power systems with one polarity grounded. For the purpose of... direct-current power system with one polarity grounded, the following methods of grounding will be...

Social motives and cognitive power-sex associations: predictors of aggressive sexual behavior.

PubMed

Zurbriggen, E L

2000-03-01

The present study investigated whether implicit social motives and cognitive power-sex associations would predict self-reports of aggressive sexual behavior. Participants wrote stories in response to Thematic Apperception Test pictures, which were scored for power and affiliation-intimacy motives. They also completed a lexical-decision priming task that provided an index of the strength of the cognitive association between the concepts of "power" and "sexuality." For men, high levels of power motivation and strong power-sex associations predicted more frequent aggression. There was also an interaction: Power motivation was unrelated to aggression for men with the weakest power-sex associations. For women, high levels of affiliation-intimacy motivation were associated with more frequent aggression. Strong power-sex associations were also predictive for women but only when affiliation-intimacy motivation was high.

Experimental Results from the Thermal Energy Storage-2 (TES-2) Flight Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tolbert, Carol

2000-01-01

Thermal Energy Storage-2 (TES-2) is a flight experiment that flew on the Space Shuttle Endeavour (STS-72), in January 1996. TES-2 originally flew with TES-1 as part of the OAST-2 Hitchhiker payload on the Space Shuttle Columbia (STS-62) in early 1994. The two experiments, TES-1 and TES-2 were identical except for the fluoride salts to be characterized. TES-1 provided data on lithium fluoride (LiF), TES-2 provided data on a fluoride eutectic (LiF/CaF2). Each experiment was a complex autonomous payload in a Get-Away-Special payload canister. TES-1 operated flawlessly for 22 hr. Results were reported in a paper entitled, Effect of Microgravity on Materials Undergoing Melting and Freezing-The TES Experiment, by David Namkoong et al. A software failure in TES-2 caused its shutdown after 4 sec of operation. TES-1 and 2 were the first experiments in a four experiment suite designed to provide data for understanding the long duration microgravity behavior of thermal energy storage salts that undergo repeated melting and freezing. Such data have never been obtained before and have direct application for the development of space-based solar dynamic (SD) power systems. These power systems will store energy in a thermal energy salt such as lithium fluoride or a eutectic of lithium fluoride/calcium difluoride. The stored energy is extracted during the shade portion of the orbit. This enables the solar dynamic power system to provide constant electrical power over the entire orbit. Analytical computer codes were developed for predicting performance of a space-based solar dynamic power system. Experimental verification of the analytical predictions were needed prior to using the analytical results for future space power design applications. The four TES flight experiments were to be used to obtain the needed experimental data. This paper will address the flight results from the first and second experiments, TES-1 and 2, in comparison to the predicted results from the Thermal Energy Storage Simulation (TESSIM) analytical computer code. An analysis of the TES-2 data was conducted by Cleveland State University Professor, Mounir Ibrahim. TESSIM validation was based on two types of results; temperature history of various points on the containment vessel and TES material distribution within the vessel upon return from flight. The TESSIM prediction showed close comparison with the flight data. Distribution of the TES material within the vessel was obtained by a tomography imaging process. The frozen TES material was concentrated toward the colder end of the canister. The TESSIM prediction indicated a similar pattern. With agreement between TESSIM and the flight data, a computerized representation was produced to show the movement and behavior of the void during the entire melting and freezing cycles.

Radioactivity in the galactic plane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walraven, G. D.; Haymes, R. C.

1976-01-01

The paper reports the detection of a large concentration of interstellar radioactivity during balloon-altitude measurements of gamma-ray energy spectra in the band between 0.02 and 12.27 MeV from galactic and extragalactic sources. Enhanced counting rates were observed in three directions towards the plane of the Galaxy; a power-law energy spectrum is computed for one of these directions (designated B 10). A large statistical deviation from the power law in a 1.0-FWHM interval centered near 1.16 MeV is discussed, and the existence of a nuclear gamma-ray line at 1.15 MeV in B 10 is postulated. It is suggested that Ca-44, which emits gamma radiation at 1.156 MeV following the decay of radioactive Sc-44, is a likely candidate for this line, noting that Sc-44 arises from Ti-44 according to explosive models of supernova nucleosynthesis. The 1.16-MeV line flux inferred from the present data is shown to equal the predicted flux for a supernova at a distance of approximately 3 kpc and an age not exceeding about 100 years.

Rocket noise - A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McInerny, S. A.

1990-10-01

This paper reviews what is known about far-field rocket noise from the controlled studies of the late 1950s and 1960s and from launch data. The peak dimensionless frequency, the dependence of overall sound power on exhaust parameters, and the directivity of the overall sound power of rockets are compared to those of subsonic jets and turbo-jets. The location of the dominant sound source in the rocket exhaust plume and the mean flow velocity in this region are discussed and shown to provide a qualitative explanation for the low peak Strouhal number, fD(e)/V(e), and large angle of maximum directivity. Lastly, two empirical prediction methods are compared with data from launches of a Titan family vehicle (two, solid rocket motors of 5.7 x 10 to the 6th N thrust each) and the Saturn V (five, liquid oxygen/rocket propellant engines of 6.7 x 10 to the 6th N thrust, each). The agreement is favorable. In contrast, these methods appear to overpredict the far-field sound pressure levels generated by the Space Shuttle.

Core cooling under accident conditions at the high-flux beam reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tichler, P.; Cheng, L.; Fauske, H.

The High-Flux Beam Reactor (HFBR) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) is cooled and moderated by heavy water and contains {sup 235}U in the form of narrow-channel, parallel-plate-type fuel elements. During normal operation, the flow direction is downward through the core. This flow direction is maintained at a reduced flow rate during routine shutdown and on loss of commercial power by means of redundant pumps and power supplies. However, in certain accident scenarios, e.g. loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs), all forced-flow cooling is lost. Although there was experimental evidence during the reactor design period (1958-1963) that the heat removal capacity in the fullymore » developed natural circulation cooling mode was relatively high, it was not possible to make a confident prediction of the heat removal capacity during the transition from downflow to natural circulation. Accordingly, a test program was initiated using an electrically heated section to simulate the fuel channel and a cooling loop to simulate the balance of the primary cooling system.« less

Study of complete interconnect reliability for a GaAs MMIC power amplifier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Qian; Wu, Haifeng; Chen, Shan-ji; Jia, Guoqing; Jiang, Wei; Chen, Chao

2018-05-01

By combining the finite element analysis (FEA) and artificial neural network (ANN) technique, the complete prediction of interconnect reliability for a monolithic microwave integrated circuit (MMIC) power amplifier (PA) at the both of direct current (DC) and alternating current (AC) operation conditions is achieved effectively in this article. As a example, a MMIC PA is modelled to study the electromigration failure of interconnect. This is the first time to study the interconnect reliability for an MMIC PA at the conditions of DC and AC operation simultaneously. By training the data from FEA, a high accuracy ANN model for PA reliability is constructed. Then, basing on the reliability database which is obtained from the ANN model, it can give important guidance for improving the reliability design for IC.

Application of the electroosmotic effect for thrust generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Thomas Edward

The present work focuses on demonstrating the capabilities of electroosmotic pumps, (EOP) to generate thrust. An underwater glider was successfully propelled by electroosmosis for the first time published - at 0.85 inches per second. Asymmetric AC voltage pulsing proved to produce higher flow rates then equivalent DC pumps for the same average voltage. Ultra-short pulsing proved 100 nanosecond rise times in EOP are possible, which surpassed published predictions by three orders of magnitude. Theories behind efficiency losses of high power EOP were investigated. Direct measurement of effective voltage at the face of a membrane is the most accurate way to determine voltage drop across the electrolyte of an EOP. Forced convection lowered efficiency of the EOP for low voltages by preventing capacitance charging, but proved to prolong pump life during high power application.

Studies of the generation mechanisms of steady vortex formations in the channels of nuclear-power installations for purposes of improving the reliability and safety of their work

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitrofanova, O.

2017-01-01

The analysis of the results of experimental researches on revealing the mechanisms of vortex formation in channels of complex geometry in the neutral and conductive media is carried out. The directions of researches related to the study of mechanisms of vortex generation and accumulation of energy by large-scale vortex structures are considered for the possibility of predictions of the man-made accidents and catastrophic natural phenomena. The main goal of ongoing investigations is the solution of the task aimed at improving the safety of nuclear power installations and, in particular, of the fast neutron reactors with liquid-metal coolants, and the prevention of emergency modes arising from acoustic, magnetic and hydrodynamic resonance effects.

Looking into the future: An inward bias in aesthetic experience driven only by gaze cues.

PubMed

Chen, Yi-Chia; Colombatto, Clara; Scholl, Brian J

2018-07-01

The inward bias is an especially powerful principle of aesthetic experience: In framed images (e.g. photographs), we prefer peripheral figures that face inward (vs. outward). Why does this bias exist? Since agents tend to act in the direction in which they are facing, one intriguing possibility is that the inward bias reflects a preference to view scenes from a perspective that will allow us to witness those predicted future actions. This account has been difficult to test with previous displays, in which facing direction is often confounded with either global shape profiles or the relative locations of salient features (since e.g. someone's face is generally more visually interesting than the back of their head). But here we demonstrate a robust inward bias in aesthetic judgment driven by a cue that is socially powerful but visually subtle: averted gaze. Subjects adjusted the positions of people in images to maximize the images' aesthetic appeal. People with direct gaze were not placed preferentially in particular regions, but people with averted gaze were reliably placed so that they appeared to be looking inward. This demonstrates that the inward bias can arise from visually subtle features, when those features signal how future events may unfold. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Investigation of coaxial jet noise and inlet choking using an F-111A airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putnam, T. W.

1973-01-01

Measurements of engine noise generated by an F-111A airplane positioned on a thrustmeasuring platform were made at angles of 0 deg to 160 deg from the aircraft heading. Sound power levels, power spectra, and directivity patterns are presented for jet exit velocities between 260 feet per second and 2400 feet per second. The test results indicate that the total acoustic power was proportional to the eighth power of the core jet velocity for core exhaust velocities greater than 300 meters per second (985 feet per second) and that little or no mixing of the core and fan streams occurred. The maximum sideline noise was most accurately predicted by using the average jet velocity for velocities above 300 meters per second (985 feet per second). The acoustic power spectrum was essentially the same for the single jet flow of afterburner operation and the coaxial flow of the nonafterburning condition. By varying the inlet geometry and cowl position, reductions in the sound pressure level of the blade passing frequency on the order of 15 decibels to 25 decibels were observed for inlet Mach numbers of 0.8 to 0.9.

POWER Web Access Data

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-05-27

Description:  Obtain Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) data The Prediction of Worldwide Energy ... (POWER) project was initiated to improve upon the current renewable energy data set and to create new data sets from new satellite ...

Direct Observation of Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Short Electron Bunches in Storage Rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evain, C.; Roussel, E.; Le Parquier, M.; Szwaj, C.; Tordeux, M.-A.; Brubach, J.-B.; Manceron, L.; Roy, P.; Bielawski, S.

2017-02-01

In recent synchrotron radiation facilities, the use of short (picosecond) electron bunches is a powerful method for producing giant pulses of terahertz coherent synchrotron radiation. Here we report on the first direct observation of these pulse shapes with a few picoseconds resolution, and of their dynamics over a long time. We thus confirm in a very direct way the theories predicting an interplay between two physical processes. Below a critical bunch charge, we observe a train of identical THz pulses (a broadband Terahertz comb) stemming from the shortness of the electron bunches. Above this threshold, a large part of the emission is dominated by drifting structures, which appear through spontaneous self-organization. These challenging single-shot THz recordings are made possible by using a recently developed photonic time stretch detector with a high sensitivity. The experiment has been realized at the SOLEIL storage ring.

Josephson Parametric Reflection Amplifier with Integrated Directionality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westig, M. P.; Klapwijk, T. M.

2018-06-01

A directional superconducting parametric amplifier in the GHz frequency range is designed and analyzed, suitable for low-power read-out of microwave kinetic inductance detectors employed in astrophysics and when combined with a nonreciprocal device at its input also for circuit quantum electrodynamics. It consists of a one-wavelength-long nondegenerate Josephson parametric reflection amplifier circuit. The device has two Josephson-junction oscillators, connected via a tailored impedance to an on-chip passive circuit which directs the in- to the output port. The amplifier provides a gain of 20 dB over a bandwidth of 220 MHz on the signal as well as on the idler portion of the amplified input and the total photon shot noise referred to the input corresponds to maximally approximately 1.3 photons per second per Hertz of bandwidth. We predict a factor of 4 increase in dynamic range compared to conventional Josephson parametric amplifiers.

Air quality impacts of distributed energy resources implemented in the northeastern United States.

PubMed

Carreras-Sospedra, Marc; Dabdub, Donald; Brouwer, Jacob; Knipping, Eladio; Kumar, Naresh; Darrow, Ken; Hampson, Anne; Hedman, Bruce

2008-07-01

Emissions from the potential installation of distributed energy resources (DER) in the place of current utility-scale power generators have been introduced into an emissions inventory of the northeastern United States. A methodology for predicting future market penetration of DER that considers economics and emission factors was used to estimate the most likely implementation of DER. The methodology results in spatially and temporally resolved emission profiles of criteria pollutants that are subsequently introduced into a detailed atmospheric chemistry and transport model of the region. The DER technology determined by the methodology includes 62% reciprocating engines, 34% gas turbines, and 4% fuel cells and other emerging technologies. The introduction of DER leads to retirement of 2625 MW of existing power plants for which emissions are removed from the inventory. The air quality model predicts maximum differences in air pollutant concentrations that are located downwind from the central power plants that were removed from the domain. Maximum decreases in hourly peak ozone concentrations due to DER use are 10 ppb and are located over the state of New Jersey. Maximum decreases in 24-hr average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations reach 3 microg/m3 and are located off the coast of New Jersey and New York. The main contribution to decreased PM2.5 is the reduction of sulfate levels due to significant reductions in direct emissions of sulfur oxides (SO(x)) from the DER compared with the central power plants removed. The scenario presented here represents an accelerated DER penetration case with aggressive emission reductions due to removal of highly emitting power plants. Such scenario provides an upper bound for air quality benefits of DER implementation scenarios.

Interacting dark sector and precision cosmology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buen-Abad, Manuel A.; Schmaltz, Martin; Lesgourgues, Julien; Brinckmann, Thejs

2018-01-01

We consider a recently proposed model in which dark matter interacts with a thermal background of dark radiation. Dark radiation consists of relativistic degrees of freedom which allow larger values of the expansion rate of the universe today to be consistent with CMB data (H0-problem). Scattering between dark matter and radiation suppresses the matter power spectrum at small scales and can explain the apparent discrepancies between ΛCDM predictions of the matter power spectrum and direct measurements of Large Scale Structure LSS (σ8-problem). We go beyond previous work in two ways: 1. we enlarge the parameter space of our previous model and allow for an arbitrary fraction of the dark matter to be interacting and 2. we update the data sets used in our fits, most importantly we include LSS data with full k-dependence to explore the sensitivity of current data to the shape of the matter power spectrum. We find that LSS data prefer models with overall suppressed matter clustering due to dark matter - dark radiation interactions over ΛCDM at 3–4 σ. However recent weak lensing measurements of the power spectrum are not yet precise enough to clearly distinguish two limits of the model with different predicted shapes for the linear matter power spectrum. In two appendices we give a derivation of the coupled dark matter and dark radiation perturbation equations from the Boltzmann equation in order to clarify a confusion in the recent literature, and we derive analytic approximations to the solutions of the perturbation equations in the two physically interesting limits of all dark matter weakly interacting or a small fraction of dark matter strongly interacting.

Decision - making of Direct Customers Based on Available Transfer Capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quan, Tang; Zhaohang, Lin; Huaqiang, Li

2017-05-01

Large customer direct-power-purchasing is a hot spot in the electricity market reform. In this paper, the author established an Available Transfer Capability (ATC) model which takes uncertain factors into account, applied the model into large customer direct-power-purchasing transactions and improved the reliability of power supply during direct-power-purchasing by introducing insurance theory. The author also considered the customers loss suffered from power interruption when building ATC model, established large customer decision model, took purchasing quantity of power from different power plants and reserved capacity insurance as variables, targeted minimum power interruption loss as optimization goal and best solution by means of particle swarm algorithm to produce optimal power purchasing decision of large consumers. Simulation was made through IEEE57 system finally and proved that such method is effective.

Towards Subject-Specific Strength Training Design through Predictive Use of Musculoskeletal Models.

PubMed

Plüss, Michael; Schellenberg, Florian; Taylor, William R; Lorenzetti, Silvio

2018-01-01

Lower extremity dysfunction is often associated with hip muscle strength deficiencies. Detailed knowledge of the muscle forces generated in the hip under specific external loading conditions enables specific structures to be trained. The aim of this study was to find the most effective movement type and loading direction to enable the training of specific parts of the hip muscles using a standing posture and a pulley system. In a novel approach to release the predictive power of musculoskeletal modelling techniques based on inverse dynamics, flexion/extension and ab-/adduction movements were virtually created. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach, three hip orientations and an external loading force that was systematically rotated around the body were simulated using a state-of-the art OpenSim model in order to establish ideal designs for training of the anterior and posterior parts of the M. gluteus medius (GM). The external force direction as well as the hip orientation greatly influenced the muscle forces in the different parts of the GM. No setting was found for simultaneous training of the anterior and posterior parts with a muscle force higher than 50% of the maximum. Importantly, this study has demonstrated the use of musculoskeletal models as an approach to predict muscle force variations for different strength and rehabilitation exercise variations.

Towards Subject-Specific Strength Training Design through Predictive Use of Musculoskeletal Models

PubMed Central

Plüss, Michael; Schellenberg, Florian

2018-01-01

Lower extremity dysfunction is often associated with hip muscle strength deficiencies. Detailed knowledge of the muscle forces generated in the hip under specific external loading conditions enables specific structures to be trained. The aim of this study was to find the most effective movement type and loading direction to enable the training of specific parts of the hip muscles using a standing posture and a pulley system. In a novel approach to release the predictive power of musculoskeletal modelling techniques based on inverse dynamics, flexion/extension and ab-/adduction movements were virtually created. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach, three hip orientations and an external loading force that was systematically rotated around the body were simulated using a state-of-the art OpenSim model in order to establish ideal designs for training of the anterior and posterior parts of the M. gluteus medius (GM). The external force direction as well as the hip orientation greatly influenced the muscle forces in the different parts of the GM. No setting was found for simultaneous training of the anterior and posterior parts with a muscle force higher than 50% of the maximum. Importantly, this study has demonstrated the use of musculoskeletal models as an approach to predict muscle force variations for different strength and rehabilitation exercise variations. PMID:29796082

POWER/SSE Web Access Data

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-06-25

Description:  Obtain Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) data The Prediction of Worldwide Energy ... (POWER) project was initiated to improve upon the current renewable energy data set and to create new data sets from new satellite ...

Research on prediction of agricultural machinery total power based on grey model optimized by genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yan; Li, Mu; Zhou, Jin; Zheng, Chang-zheng

2009-07-01

Agricultural machinery total power is an important index to reflex and evaluate the level of agricultural mechanization. It is the power source of agricultural production, and is the main factors to enhance the comprehensive agricultural production capacity expand production scale and increase the income of the farmers. Its demand is affected by natural, economic, technological and social and other "grey" factors. Therefore, grey system theory can be used to analyze the development of agricultural machinery total power. A method based on genetic algorithm optimizing grey modeling process is introduced in this paper. This method makes full use of the advantages of the grey prediction model and characteristics of genetic algorithm to find global optimization. So the prediction model is more accurate. According to data from a province, the GM (1, 1) model for predicting agricultural machinery total power was given based on the grey system theories and genetic algorithm. The result indicates that the model can be used as agricultural machinery total power an effective tool for prediction.

Power corrections to the universal heavy WIMP-nucleon cross section

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chien-Yi; Hill, Richard J.; Solon, Mikhail P.; Wijangco, Alexander M.

2018-06-01

WIMP-nucleon scattering is analyzed at order 1 / M in Heavy WIMP Effective Theory. The 1 / M power corrections, where M ≫mW is the WIMP mass, distinguish between different underlying UV models with the same universal limit and their impact on direct detection rates can be enhanced relative to naive expectations due to generic amplitude-level cancellations at leading order. The necessary one- and two-loop matching calculations onto the low-energy effective theory for WIMP interactions with Standard Model quarks and gluons are performed for the case of an electroweak SU(2) triplet WIMP, considering both the cases of elementary fermions and composite scalars. The low-velocity WIMP-nucleon scattering cross section is evaluated and compared with current experimental limits and projected future sensitivities. Our results provide the most robust prediction for electroweak triplet Majorana fermion dark matter direct detection rates; for this case, a cancellation between two sources of power corrections yields a small total 1 / M correction, and a total cross section close to the universal limit for M ≳ few × 100GeV. For the SU(2) composite scalar, the 1 / M corrections introduce dependence on underlying strong dynamics. Using a leading chiral logarithm evaluation, the total 1 / M correction has a larger magnitude and uncertainty than in the fermionic case, with a sign that further suppresses the total cross section. These examples provide definite targets for future direct detection experiments and motivate large scale detectors capable of probing to the neutrino floor in the TeV mass regime.

Study of Flexible Load Dispatch to Improve the Capacity of Wind Power Absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yunlei, Yang; Shifeng, Zhang; Xiao, Chang; Da, Lei; Min, Zhang; Jinhao, Wang; Shengwen, Li; Huipeng, Li

2017-05-01

The dispatch method which track the trend of load demand by arranging the generation scheme of controllable hydro or thermal units faces great difficulties and challenges. With the increase of renewable energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaic power introduced to grid, system has to arrange much more spinning reserve units to compensate the unbalanced power. How to exploit the peak-shaving potential of flexible load which can be shifted with time or storage energy has become many scholars’ research direction. However, the modelling of different kinds of load and control strategy is considerably difficult, this paper choose the Air Conditioner with compressor which can storage energy in fact to study. The equivalent thermal parameters of Air Conditioner has been established. And with the use of “loop control” strategies, we can predict the regulated power of Air Conditioner. Then we established the Gen-Load optimal scheduling model including flexible load based on traditional optimal scheduling model. At last, an improved IEEE-30 case is used to verify. The result of simulation shows that flexible load can fast-track renewable power changes. More than that, with flexible load and reasonable incentive method to consumers, the operating cost of the system can be greatly cut down.

Waveform agile high-power fiber laser illuminators for directed-energy weapon systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engin, Doruk; Lu, Wei; Kimpel, Frank; Gupta, Shantanu

2012-06-01

A kW-class fiber-amplifier based laser illuminator system at 1030nm is demonstrated. At 125 kHz pulse repetition rate, 1.9mJ energy per pulse (235W average power) is achieved for 100nsec pulses with >72% optical conversion efficiency, and at 250kHz repetition, >350W average power is demonstrated, limited by the available pumps. Excellent agreement is established between the experimental results and dynamic fiber amplifier simulation, for predicting the pulse shape, spectrum and ASE accumulation throughout the fiber-amplifier chain. High pulse-energy, high power fiber-amplifier operation requires careful engineering - minimize ASE content throughout the pre-amplifier stages, use of large mode area gain fiber in the final power stage for effective pulse energy extraction, and pulse pre-shaping to compensate for the laser gain-saturation induced intra-pulse and pulse-pattern dependent distortion. Such optimization using commercially available (VLMA) fibers with core size in the 30-40μm range is estimated to lead to >4mJ pulse energy for 100nsec pulse at 50kHz repetition rate. Such waveform agile high-power, high-energy pulsed fiber laser illuminators at λ=1030nm satisfies requirements for active-tracking/ranging in high-energy laser (HEL) weapon systems, and in uplink laser beacon for deep space communication.

Generation of Underwater Sound by a Moving High-Power Laser Source.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-08-01

convolution 63 2. Laser beamwidth effects 67 3. Numerical predictions 69 V Table of Contents (Cont.) Page B. Experimental results 72 1. Pressure...source - II 53 17 Nerfield ef f ects: t as a ftunction of ro and cc 55 19 Nearfield effects : @max as a function of r. and a 56 • 20 Nearfield directivity...of a " photophone " or apparatus for the production of sound by light. Bell’s invention of the photophone was neglected for many years, but recently it

Activity-based protein profiling: from enzyme chemistry to proteomic chemistry.

PubMed

Cravatt, Benjamin F; Wright, Aaron T; Kozarich, John W

2008-01-01

Genome sequencing projects have provided researchers with a complete inventory of the predicted proteins produced by eukaryotic and prokaryotic organisms. Assignment of functions to these proteins represents one of the principal challenges for the field of proteomics. Activity-based protein profiling (ABPP) has emerged as a powerful chemical proteomic strategy to characterize enzyme function directly in native biological systems on a global scale. Here, we review the basic technology of ABPP, the enzyme classes addressable by this method, and the biological discoveries attributable to its application.

SDP_mharwit_1: Demonstration of HIFI Linear Polarization Analysis of Spectral Features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harwit, M.

2010-03-01

We propose to observe the polarization of the 621 GHz water vapor maser in VY Canis Majoris to demonstrate the capability of HIFI to make polarization observations of Far-Infrared/Submillimeter spectral lines. The proposed Demonstration Phase would: - Show that HIFI is capable of interesting linear polarization measurements of spectral lines; - Test out the highest spectral resolving power to sort out closely spaced Doppler components; - Determine whether the relative intensities predicted by Neufeld and Melnick are correct; - Record the degree and direction of linear polarization for the closely-Doppler shifted peaks.

A method for calculating strut and splitter plate noise in exit ducts: Theory and verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fink, M. R.

1978-01-01

Portions of a four-year analytical and experimental investigation relative to noise radiation from engine internal components in turbulent flow are summarized. Spectra measured for such airfoils over a range of chord, thickness ratio, flow velocity, and turbulence level were compared with predictions made by an available rigorous thin-airfoil analytical method. This analysis included the effects of flow compressibility and source noncompactness. Generally good agreement was obtained. This noise calculation method for isolated airfoils in turbulent flow was combined with a method for calculating transmission of sound through a subsonic exit duct and with an empirical far-field directivity shape. These three elements were checked separately and were individually shown to give close agreement with data. This combination provides a method for predicting engine internally generated aft-radiated noise from radial struts and stators, and annular splitter rings. Calculated sound power spectra, directivity, and acoustic pressure spectra were compared with the best available data. These data were for noise caused by a fan exit duct annular splitter ring, larger-chord stator blades, and turbine exit struts.

Measurement Of Trailing Edge Noise using Directional Array and Coherent Output Power Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hutcheson, Florence V.; Brooks, Thomas F.

2002-01-01

The use of a directional array of microphones for the measurement of trailing edge (TE) noise is described. The capabilities of this method are evaluated via measurements of TE noise from a NACA 63-215 airfoil model and from a cylindrical rod. This TE noise measurement approach is compared to one that is based on the cross spectral analysis of output signals from a pair of microphones (COP method). Advantages and limitations of both methods are examined. It is shown that the microphone array can accurately measures TE noise and captures its two-dimensional characteristic over a large frequency range for any TE configuration as long as noise contamination from extraneous sources is within bounds. The COP method is shown to also accurately measure TE noise but over a more limited frequency range that narrows for increased TE thickness. Finally, the applicability and generality of an airfoil self-noise prediction method was evaluated via comparison to the experimental data obtained using the COP and array measurement methods. The predicted and experimental results are shown to agree over large frequency ranges.

Transient analysis of ”2 inch Direct Vessel Injection line break” in SPES-2 facility by using TRACE code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Amico, S.; Lombardo, C.; Moscato, I.; Polidori, M.; Vella, G.

2015-11-01

In the past few decades a lot of theoretical and experimental researches have been done to understand the physical phenomena characterizing nuclear accidents. In particular, after the Three Miles Island accident, several reactors have been designed to handle successfully LOCA events. This paper presents a comparison between experimental and numerical results obtained for the “2 inch Direct Vessel Injection line break” in SPES-2. This facility is an integral test facility built in Piacenza at the SIET laboratories and simulating the primary circuit, the relevant parts of the secondary circuits and the passive safety systems typical of the AP600 nuclear power plant. The numerical analysis here presented was performed by using TRACE and CATHARE thermal-hydraulic codes with the purpose of evaluating their prediction capability. The main results show that the TRACE model well predicts the overall behaviour of the plant during the transient, in particular it is able to simulate the principal thermal-hydraulic phenomena related to all passive safety systems. The performance of the presented CATHARE noding has suggested some possible improvements of the model.

a Dosimetry Assessment for the Core Restraint of AN Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, D. A.; Allen, D. A.; Tyrrell, R. J.; Meese, T. C.; Huggon, A. P.; Whiley, G. S.; Mossop, J. R.

2009-08-01

This paper describes calculations of neutron damage rates within the core restraint structures of Advanced Gas Cooled Reactors (AGRs). Using advanced features of the Monte Carlo radiation transport code MCBEND, and neutron source data from core follow calculations performed with the reactor physics code PANTHER, a detailed model of the reactor cores of two of British Energy's AGR power plants has been developed for this purpose. Because there are no relevant neutron fluence measurements directly supporting this assessment, results of benchmark comparisons and successful validation of MCBEND for Magnox reactors have been used to estimate systematic and random uncertainties on the predictions. In particular, it has been necessary to address the known under-prediction of lower energy fast neutron responses associated with the penetration of large thicknesses of graphite.

Continuum Electrostatics Approaches to Calculating pKas and Ems in Proteins.

PubMed

Gunner, M R; Baker, N A

2016-01-01

Proteins change their charge state through protonation and redox reactions as well as through binding charged ligands. The free energy of these reactions is dominated by solvation and electrostatic energies and modulated by protein conformational relaxation in response to the ionization state changes. Although computational methods for calculating these interactions can provide very powerful tools for predicting protein charge states, they include several critical approximations of which users should be aware. This chapter discusses the strengths, weaknesses, and approximations of popular computational methods for predicting charge states and understanding the underlying electrostatic interactions. The goal of this chapter is to inform users about applications and potential caveats of these methods as well as outline directions for future theoretical and computational research. © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Method and system for monitoring and displaying engine performance parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbott, Terence S. (Inventor); Person, Lee H., Jr. (Inventor)

1988-01-01

The invention is believed a major improvement that will have a broad application in governmental and commercial aviation. It provides a dynamic method and system for monitoring and simultaneously displaying in easily scanned form the available, predicted, and actual thrust of a jet aircraft engine under actual operating conditions. The available and predicted thrusts are based on the performance of a functional model of the aircraft engine under the same operating conditions. Other critical performance parameters of the aircraft engine and functional model are generated and compared, the differences in value being simultaneously displayed in conjunction with the displayed thrust values. Thus, the displayed information permits the pilot to make power adjustments directly while keeping him aware of total performance at a glance of a single display panel.

50 kHz bottom backscattering measurements from two types of artificially roughened sandy bottoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, Su-Uk; Cho, Sungho; Choi, Jee Woong

2016-07-01

Laboratory measurements of 50 kHz bottom backscattering strengths as a function of grazing angle were performed on the sandy bottom of a water tank; two types of bottom roughnesses, a relatively smooth interface and a rough interface, were created on the bottom surface. The roughness profiles of the two interface types were measured directly using an ultrasound arrival time difference of 5 MHz and then were Fourier transformed to obtain the roughness power spectra. The measured backscattering strengths increased from -29 to 0 dB with increasing grazing angle from 35 to 86°, which were compared to theoretical backscattering model predictions. The comparison results implied that bottom roughness is a key factor in accurately predicting bottom scattering for a sandy bottom.

Toward superconducting critical current by design

DOE PAGES

Sadovskyy, Ivan A.; Jia, Ying; Leroux, Maxime; ...

2016-03-31

The interaction of vortex matter with defects in applied superconductors directly determines their current carrying capacity. Defects range from chemically grown nanostructures and crystalline imperfections to the layered structure of the material itself. The vortex-defect interactions are non-additive in general, leading to complex dynamic behavior that has proven difficult to capture in analytical models. With recent rapid progress in computational powers, a new paradigm has emerged that aims at simulation assisted design of defect structures with predictable ‘critical-current-by-design’: analogous to the materials genome concept of predicting stable materials structures of interest. We demonstrate the feasibility of this paradigm by combiningmore » large-scale time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau numerical simulations with experiments on commercial high temperature superconductor (HTS) containing well-controlled correlated defects.« less

Heat conduction in a chain of colliding particles with a stiff repulsive potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gendelman, Oleg V.; Savin, Alexander V.

2016-11-01

One-dimensional billiards, i.e., a chain of colliding particles with equal masses, is a well-known example of a completely integrable system. Billiards with different particle masses is generically not integrable, but it still exhibits divergence of a heat conduction coefficient (HCC) in the thermodynamic limit. Traditional billiards models imply instantaneous (zero-time) collisions between the particles. We relax this condition of instantaneous impact and consider heat transport in a chain of stiff colliding particles with the power-law potential of the nearest-neighbor interaction. The instantaneous collisions correspond to the limit of infinite power in the interaction potential; for finite powers, the interactions take nonzero time. This modification of the model leads to a profound physical consequence—the probability of multiple (in particular triple) -particle collisions becomes nonzero. Contrary to the integrable billiards of equal particles, the modified model exhibits saturation of the heat conduction coefficient for a large system size. Moreover, the identification of scattering events with triple-particle collisions leads to a simple definition of the characteristic mean free path and a kinetic description of heat transport. This approach allows us to predict both the temperature and density dependencies for the HCC limit values. The latter dependence is quite counterintuitive—the HCC is inversely proportional to the particle density in the chain. Both predictions are confirmed by direct numerical simulations.

Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosgaard, Martin; Giebel, Gregor; Skov Nielsen, Torben; Hahmann, Andrea; Sørensen, Poul; Madsen, Henrik

2013-04-01

This poster presents the current state of the public service obligation (PSO) funded project PSO 10464, with the title "Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool". The goal is to integrate a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with purely statistical tools in order to assess wind power fluctuations, with focus on long term power system planning for future wind farms as well as short term forecasting for existing wind farms. Currently, wind power fluctuation models are either purely statistical or integrated with NWP models of limited resolution. Using the state-of-the-art mesoscale NWP model Weather Research & Forecasting model (WRF) the forecast error is sought quantified in dependence of the time scale involved. This task constitutes a preparative study for later implementation of features accounting for NWP forecast errors in the DTU Wind Energy maintained Corwind code - a long term wind power planning tool. Within the framework of PSO 10464 research related to operational short term wind power prediction will be carried out, including a comparison of forecast quality at different mesoscale NWP model resolutions and development of a statistical wind power prediction tool taking input from WRF. The short term prediction part of the project is carried out in collaboration with ENFOR A/S; a Danish company that specialises in forecasting and optimisation for the energy sector. The integrated prediction model will allow for the description of the expected variability in wind power production in the coming hours to days, accounting for its spatio-temporal dependencies, and depending on the prevailing weather conditions defined by the WRF output. The output from the integrated short term prediction tool constitutes scenario forecasts for the coming period, which can then be fed into any type of system model or decision making problem to be solved. The high resolution of the WRF results loaded into the integrated prediction model will ensure a high accuracy data basis is available for use in the decision making process of the Danish transmission system operator. The need for high accuracy predictions will only increase over the next decade as Denmark approaches the goal of 50% wind power based electricity in 2025 from the current 20%.

Method for predicting water demand for crop uses in New Jersey in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, and for estimating water use for livestock and selected sectors of the food-processing industry in New Jersey in 1987

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clawges, R.M.; Titus, E.O.

1993-01-01

A method was developed to predict water demand for crop uses in New Jersey. A separate method was developed to estimate water use for livestock and selected sectors of the food-processing industry in 1987. Predictions of water demand for field- grown crops in New Jersey were made for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 under three climatological scenarios: (1) wet year, (2) average year, and (3) drought year. These estimates ranged from 4.10 times 10 to the 9th power to 16.82 times 10 to the 9th power gal (gallons). Irrigation amounts calculated for the three climatological scenarios by using a daily water-balance model were multiplied by predicted numbers of irrigated acreage. Irrigated acreage was predicted from historical crop-irrigation data and from predictions of harvested acreage produced by using a statistical model relating population to harvested acreage. Predictions of water demand for cranberries and container-grown nursery crops also were made for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Predictions of water demand under the three climatological scenarios were made for container- grown nursery crops, but not for cranberries, because water demand for cranberries varies little in response to climatological factors. Water demand for cranberries was predicted to remain constant at 4.43 times 10 to the 9th power gal through the year 2020. Predictions of water demand for container-grown nursery crops ranged from 1.89 times 10 to the 9th power to 3.63 times 10 to the 9th power gal. Water-use for livestock in 1987 was estimated to be 0.78 times 10 to the 9th power gal, and water use for selected sectors of the food-processing industry was estimated to be 3.75 times 10 to the 9th power gal.

Goal conflict, goal facilitation, and health professionals' provision of physical activity advice in primary care: an exploratory prospective study.

PubMed

Presseau, Justin; Francis, Jill J; Campbell, Neil C; Sniehotta, Falko F

2011-07-15

The theory of planned behaviour has well-evidenced utility in predicting health professional behaviour, but focuses on a single behaviour isolated from the numerous potentially conflicting and facilitating goal-directed behaviours performed alongside. Goal conflict and goal facilitation may influence whether health professionals engage in guideline-recommended behaviours, and may supplement the predictive power of the theory of planned behaviour. We hypothesised that goal facilitation and goal conflict contribute to predicting primary care health professionals' provision of physical activity advice to patients with hypertension, over and above predictors of behaviour from the theory of planned behaviour. Using a prospective predictive design, at baseline we invited a random sample of 606 primary care health professionals from all primary care practices in NHS Grampian and NHS Tayside (Scotland) to complete postal questionnaires. Goal facilitation and goal conflict were measured alongside theory of planned behaviour constructs at baseline. At follow-up six months later, participants self-reported the number of patients, out of those seen in the preceding two weeks, to whom they provided physical activity advice. Forty-four primary care physicians and nurses completed measures at both time points (7.3% response rate). Goal facilitation and goal conflict improved the prediction of behaviour, accounting for substantial additional variance (5.8% and 8.4%, respectively) in behaviour over and above intention and perceived behavioural control. Health professionals' provision of physical activity advice in primary care can be predicted by perceptions about how their conflicting and facilitating goal-directed behaviours help and hinder giving advice, over and above theory of planned behaviour constructs. Incorporating features of multiple goal pursuit into the theory of planned behaviour may help to better understand health professional behaviour.

Goal conflict, goal facilitation, and health professionals' provision of physical activity advice in primary care: An exploratory prospective study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The theory of planned behaviour has well-evidenced utility in predicting health professional behaviour, but focuses on a single behaviour isolated from the numerous potentially conflicting and facilitating goal-directed behaviours performed alongside. Goal conflict and goal facilitation may influence whether health professionals engage in guideline-recommended behaviours, and may supplement the predictive power of the theory of planned behaviour. We hypothesised that goal facilitation and goal conflict contribute to predicting primary care health professionals' provision of physical activity advice to patients with hypertension, over and above predictors of behaviour from the theory of planned behaviour. Methods Using a prospective predictive design, at baseline we invited a random sample of 606 primary care health professionals from all primary care practices in NHS Grampian and NHS Tayside (Scotland) to complete postal questionnaires. Goal facilitation and goal conflict were measured alongside theory of planned behaviour constructs at baseline. At follow-up six months later, participants self-reported the number of patients, out of those seen in the preceding two weeks, to whom they provided physical activity advice. Results Forty-four primary care physicians and nurses completed measures at both time points (7.3% response rate). Goal facilitation and goal conflict improved the prediction of behaviour, accounting for substantial additional variance (5.8% and 8.4%, respectively) in behaviour over and above intention and perceived behavioural control. Conclusions Health professionals' provision of physical activity advice in primary care can be predicted by perceptions about how their conflicting and facilitating goal-directed behaviours help and hinder giving advice, over and above theory of planned behaviour constructs. Incorporating features of multiple goal pursuit into the theory of planned behaviour may help to better understand health professional behaviour. PMID:21762486

A new comparator account of auditory verbal hallucinations: how motor prediction can plausibly contribute to the sense of agency for inner speech

PubMed Central

Swiney, Lauren; Sousa, Paulo

2014-01-01

The comparator account holds that processes of motor prediction contribute to the sense of agency by attenuating incoming sensory information and that disruptions to this process contribute to misattributions of agency in schizophrenia. Over the last 25 years this simple and powerful model has gained widespread support not only as it relates to bodily actions but also as an account of misattributions of agency for inner speech, potentially explaining the etiology of auditory verbal hallucination (AVH). In this paper we provide a detailed analysis of the traditional comparator account for inner speech, pointing out serious problems with the specification of inner speech on which it is based and highlighting inconsistencies in the interpretation of the electrophysiological evidence commonly cited in its favor. In light of these analyses we propose a new comparator account of misattributed inner speech. The new account follows leading models of motor imagery in proposing that inner speech is not attenuated by motor prediction, but rather derived directly from it. We describe how failures of motor prediction would therefore directly affect the phenomenology of inner speech and trigger a mismatch in the comparison between motor prediction and motor intention, contributing to abnormal feelings of agency. We argue that the new account fits with the emerging phenomenological evidence that AVHs are both distinct from ordinary inner speech and heterogeneous. Finally, we explore the possibility that the new comparator account may extend to explain disruptions across a range of imagistic modalities, and outline avenues for future research. PMID:25221502

A new comparator account of auditory verbal hallucinations: how motor prediction can plausibly contribute to the sense of agency for inner speech.

PubMed

Swiney, Lauren; Sousa, Paulo

2014-01-01

The comparator account holds that processes of motor prediction contribute to the sense of agency by attenuating incoming sensory information and that disruptions to this process contribute to misattributions of agency in schizophrenia. Over the last 25 years this simple and powerful model has gained widespread support not only as it relates to bodily actions but also as an account of misattributions of agency for inner speech, potentially explaining the etiology of auditory verbal hallucination (AVH). In this paper we provide a detailed analysis of the traditional comparator account for inner speech, pointing out serious problems with the specification of inner speech on which it is based and highlighting inconsistencies in the interpretation of the electrophysiological evidence commonly cited in its favor. In light of these analyses we propose a new comparator account of misattributed inner speech. The new account follows leading models of motor imagery in proposing that inner speech is not attenuated by motor prediction, but rather derived directly from it. We describe how failures of motor prediction would therefore directly affect the phenomenology of inner speech and trigger a mismatch in the comparison between motor prediction and motor intention, contributing to abnormal feelings of agency. We argue that the new account fits with the emerging phenomenological evidence that AVHs are both distinct from ordinary inner speech and heterogeneous. Finally, we explore the possibility that the new comparator account may extend to explain disruptions across a range of imagistic modalities, and outline avenues for future research.

Gallium phosphide energy converters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sims, P.E.; Dinetta, L.C.; Goetz, M.A.

1995-10-01

Gallium phosphide (GaP) energy converters may be successfully deployed to provide new mission capabilities for spacecraft. Betavoltaic power supplies based on the conversion of tritium beta decay to electricity using GaP energy converters can supply long term low-level power with high reliability. High temperature solar cells, also based on GaP, can be used in inward-bound missions greatly reducing the need for thermal dissipation. Results are presented for GaP direct conversion devices powered by Ni-63 and compared to the conversion of light emitted by tritiarated phosphors. Leakage currents as low as 1.2 x 10(exp {minus}17) A/sq cm have been measured andmore » the temperature dependence of the reverse saturation current is found to have ideal behavior. Temperature dependent IV, QE, R(sub sh), and V(sub oc) results are also presented. These data are used to predict the high-temperature solar cell and betacell performance of GaP devices and suggest appropriate applications for the deployment of this technology.« less

Gallium phosphide energy converters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sims, P. E.; Dinetta, L. C.; Goetz, M. A.

1995-10-01

Gallium phosphide (GaP) energy converters may be successfully deployed to provide new mission capabilities for spacecraft. Betavoltaic power supplies based on the conversion of tritium beta decay to electricity using GaP energy converters can supply long term low-level power with high reliability. High temperature solar cells, also based on GaP, can be used in inward-bound missions greatly reducing the need for thermal dissipation. Results are presented for GaP direct conversion devices powered by Ni-63 and compared to the conversion of light emitted by tritiarated phosphors. Leakage currents as low as 1.2 x 10(exp -17) A/sq cm have been measured and the temperature dependence of the reverse saturation current is found to have ideal behavior. Temperature dependent IV, QE, R(sub sh), and V(sub oc) results are also presented. These data are used to predict the high-temperature solar cell and betacell performance of GaP devices and suggest appropriate applications for the deployment of this technology.

Experimental investigation of geologically produced antineutrinos with KamLAND.

PubMed

Araki, T; Enomoto, S; Furuno, K; Gando, Y; Ichimura, K; Ikeda, H; Inoue, K; Kishimoto, Y; Koga, M; Koseki, Y; Maeda, T; Mitsui, T; Motoki, M; Nakajima, K; Ogawa, H; Ogawa, M; Owada, K; Ricol, J-S; Shimizu, I; Shirai, J; Suekane, F; Suzuki, A; Tada, K; Takeuchi, S; Tamae, K; Tsuda, Y; Watanabe, H; Busenitz, J; Classen, T; Djurcic, Z; Keefer, G; Leonard, D; Piepke, A; Yakushev, E; Berger, B E; Chan, Y D; Decowski, M P; Dwyer, D A; Freedman, S J; Fujikawa, B K; Goldman, J; Gray, F; Heeger, K M; Hsu, L; Lesko, K T; Luk, K-B; Murayama, H; O'Donnell, T; Poon, A W P; Steiner, H M; Winslow, L A; Mauger, C; McKeown, R D; Vogel, P; Lane, C E; Miletic, T; Guillian, G; Learned, J G; Maricic, J; Matsuno, S; Pakvasa, S; Horton-Smith, G A; Dazeley, S; Hatakeyama, S; Rojas, A; Svoboda, R; Dieterle, B D; Detwiler, J; Gratta, G; Ishii, K; Tolich, N; Uchida, Y; Batygov, M; Bugg, W; Efremenko, Y; Kamyshkov, Y; Kozlov, A; Nakamura, Y; Karwowski, H J; Markoff, D M; Nakamura, K; Rohm, R M; Tornow, W; Wendell, R; Chen, M-J; Wang, Y-F; Piquemal, F

2005-07-28

The detection of electron antineutrinos produced by natural radioactivity in the Earth could yield important geophysical information. The Kamioka liquid scintillator antineutrino detector (KamLAND) has the sensitivity to detect electron antineutrinos produced by the decay of 238U and 232Th within the Earth. Earth composition models suggest that the radiogenic power from these isotope decays is 16 TW, approximately half of the total measured heat dissipation rate from the Earth. Here we present results from a search for geoneutrinos with KamLAND. Assuming a Th/U mass concentration ratio of 3.9, the 90 per cent confidence interval for the total number of geoneutrinos detected is 4.5 to 54.2. This result is consistent with the central value of 19 predicted by geophysical models. Although our present data have limited statistical power, they nevertheless provide by direct means an upper limit (60 TW) for the radiogenic power of U and Th in the Earth, a quantity that is currently poorly constrained.

Gallium phosphide energy converters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sims, P. E.; Dinetta, L. C.; Goetz, M. A.

1995-01-01

Gallium phosphide (GaP) energy converters may be successfully deployed to provide new mission capabilities for spacecraft. Betavoltaic power supplies based on the conversion of tritium beta decay to electricity using GaP energy converters can supply long term low-level power with high reliability. High temperature solar cells, also based on GaP, can be used in inward-bound missions greatly reducing the need for thermal dissipation. Results are presented for GaP direct conversion devices powered by Ni-63 and compared to the conversion of light emitted by tritiarated phosphors. Leakage currents as low as 1.2 x 10(exp -17) A/sq cm have been measured and the temperature dependence of the reverse saturation current is found to have ideal behavior. Temperature dependent IV, QE, R(sub sh), and V(sub oc) results are also presented. These data are used to predict the high-temperature solar cell and betacell performance of GaP devices and suggest appropriate applications for the deployment of this technology.

The stopping powers and energy straggling of heavy ions in polymer foils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikšová, R.; Macková, A.; Malinský, P.; Hnatowicz, V.; Slepička, P.

2014-07-01

The stopping power and energy straggling of 7Li, 12C and 16O ions in thin poly(etheretherketone) (PEEK), polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polycarbonate (PC) foils were measured in the incident beam energy range of 9.4-11.8 MeV using an indirect transmission method. Ions scattered from a thin gold target at an angle of 150° were registered by a partially depleted PIPS detector, partly shielded with a polymer foil placed in front of the detector. Therefore, the signals from both direct and slowed down ions were visible in the same energy spectrum, which was evaluated by the ITAP code, developed at our laboratory. The ITAP code was employed to perform a Gaussian-fitting procedure to provide a complete analysis of each measured spectrum. The measured stopping powers were compared with the predictions obtained from the SRIM-2008 and MSTAR codes and with previous experimental data. The energy straggling data were compared with those calculated by using Bohr's, Lindhard-Scharff and Bethe-Livingston theories.

Correlations of Power-law Spectral and QPO Features In Black Hole Candidate Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiorito, Ralph; Titarchuk, Lev

2004-01-01

Recent studies have shown that strong correlations are observed between low frequency QPO s and the spectral power law index for a number of black hole candidate sources (BHCs), when these sources exhibit quasi-steady hard x-ray emission states. The dominant long standing interpretation of QPO's is that they are produced in and are the signature of the thermal accretion disk. Paradoxically, strong QPO's are present even in the cases where the thermal component is negligible. We present a model which identifies the origin of the QPO's and relates them directly to the properties of a compact coronal region which is bounded by the adjustment from Kepleriaa to sub-Kelperian inflow into the BH, and is primarily responsible for the observed power law spectrum. The model also predicts the relationship between high and low frequency QPO's and shows how BH's can be unique identified from observations of the soft states of NS's and BHC's.

Propfan test assessment propfan propulsion system static test report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orourke, D. M.

1987-01-01

The propfan test assessment (PTA) propulsion system successfully completed over 50 hours of extensive static ground tests, including a 36 hour endurance test. All major systems performed as expected, verifying that the large-scale 2.74 m diameter propfan, engine, gearbox, controls, subsystems, and flight instrumentation will be satisfactory with minor modifications for the upcoming PTA flight tests on the GII aircraft in early 1987. A test envelope was established for static ground operation to maintain propfan blade stresses within limits for propfan rotational speeds up to 105 percent and power levels up to 3880 kW. Transient tests verified stable, predictable response of engine power and propfan speed controls. Installed engine TSFC was better than expected, probably due to the excellent inlet performance coupled with the supercharging effect of the propfan. Near- and far-field noise spectra contained three dominant components, which were dependent on power, tip speed, and direction. The components were propfan blade tones, propfan random noise, and compressor/propfan interaction noise. No significant turbine noise or combustion noise was evident.

Minimalist model of ice microphysics in mixed-phase stratiform clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Fan; Ovchinnikov, Mikhail; Shaw, Raymond A.

2013-07-01

The question of whether persistent ice crystal precipitation from supercooled layer clouds can be explained by time-dependent, stochastic ice nucleation is explored using an approximate, analytical model and a large-eddy simulation (LES) cloud model. The updraft velocity in the cloud defines an accumulation zone, where small ice particles cannot fall out until they are large enough, which will increase the residence time of ice particles in the cloud. Ice particles reach a quasi-steady state between growth by vapor deposition and fall speed at cloud base. The analytical model predicts that ice water content (wi) has a 2.5 power-law relationship with ice number concentration (ni). wi and ni from a LES cloud model with stochastic ice nucleation confirm the 2.5 power-law relationship, and initial indications of the scaling law are observed in data from the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign. The prefactor of the power law is proportional to the ice nucleation rate and therefore provides a quantitative link to observations of ice microphysical properties.

Magnetic field power density spectra during 'scatter-free' solar particle events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tan, L. C.; Mason, G. M.

1993-01-01

We have examined interplanetary magnetic field power spectral density during four previously identified 3He-rich flare periods when the about 1 MeV nucleon-1 particles exhibited nearly scatter-free transport from the sun to 1 AU. Since the scattering mean free path A was large, it might be expected that interplanetary turbulence was low, yet the spectral density value was low only for one of the four periods. For the other three, however, the spectral index q of the power density spectrum was near 2.0, a value at which quasi-linear theories predict an increase in the scattering mean free path. Comparing the lambda values from the energetic particles with that computed from a recent quasi-linear theory which includes helicity and the propagation direction of waves, we find lambda(QLT)/lambda(SEP) = 0.08 +/- 0.03 for the four events. Thus, the theory fits the q-dependence of lambda; however, as found for previous quasi-linear theories, the absolute value is low.

Divertor extreme ultraviolet (EUV) survey spectroscopy in DIII-D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLean, Adam; Allen, Steve; Ellis, Ron; Jarvinen, Aaro; Soukhanovskii, Vlad; Boivin, Rejean; Gonzales, Eduardo; Holmes, Ian; Kulchar, James; Leonard, Anthony; Williams, Bob; Taussig, Doug; Thomas, Dan; Marcy, Grant

2017-10-01

An extreme ultraviolet spectrograph measuring resonant emissions of D and C in the lower divertor has been added to DIII-D to help resolve an 2X discrepancy between bolometrically measured radiated power and that predicted by boundary codes for DIII-D, JET and ASDEX-U. With 290 and 450 gr/mm gratings, the DivSPRED spectrometer, an 0.3 m flat-field McPherson model 251, measures ground state transitions for D (the Lyman series) and C (e.g., C IV, 155 nm) which account for >75% of radiated power in the divertor. Combined with Thomson scattering and imaging in the DIII-D divertor, measurements of position, temperature and fractional power emission from plasma components are made and compared to UEDGE/SOLPS-ITER. Mechanical, optical, electrical, vacuum, and shielding aspects of DivSPRED are presented. Work supported under USDOE Cooperative Agreement DE-FC02-04ER54698 and DE-AC52-07NA27344, and by the LLNL Laboratory Directed R&D Program, project #17-ERD-020.

Application of clustering analysis in the prediction of photovoltaic power generation based on neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, K.; Guo, L. M.; Wang, Y. K.; Zafar, M. T.

2017-11-01

In order to select effective samples in the large number of data of PV power generation years and improve the accuracy of PV power generation forecasting model, this paper studies the application of clustering analysis in this field and establishes forecasting model based on neural network. Based on three different types of weather on sunny, cloudy and rainy days, this research screens samples of historical data by the clustering analysis method. After screening, it establishes BP neural network prediction models using screened data as training data. Then, compare the six types of photovoltaic power generation prediction models before and after the data screening. Results show that the prediction model combining with clustering analysis and BP neural networks is an effective method to improve the precision of photovoltaic power generation.

Weather Driven Renewable Energy Analysis, Modeling New Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paine, J.; Clack, C.; Picciano, P.; Terry, L.

2015-12-01

Carbon emission reduction is essential to hampering anthropogenic climate change. While there are several methods to broach carbon reductions, the National Energy with Weather System (NEWS) model focuses on limiting electrical generation emissions by way of a national high-voltage direct-current transmission that takes advantage of the strengths of different regions in terms of variable sources of energy. Specifically, we focus upon modeling concentrating solar power (CSP) as another source to contribute to the electric grid. Power tower solar fields are optimized taking into account high spatial and temporal resolution, 13km and hourly, numerical weather prediction model data gathered by NOAA from the years of 2006-2008. Importantly, the optimization of these CSP power plants takes into consideration factors that decrease the optical efficiency of the heliostats reflecting solar irradiance. For example, cosine efficiency, atmospheric attenuation, and shadowing are shown here; however, it should be noted that they are not the only limiting factors. While solar photovoltaic plants can be combined for similar efficiency to the power tower and currently at a lower cost, they do not have a cost-effective capability to provide electricity when there are interruptions in solar irradiance. Power towers rely on a heat transfer fluid, which can be used for thermal storage changing the cost efficiency of this energy source. Thermal storage increases the electric stability that many other renewable energy sources lack, and thus, the ability to choose between direct electric conversion and thermal storage is discussed. The figure shown is a test model of a CSP plant made up of heliostats. The colors show the optical efficiency of each heliostat at a single time of the day.

Selection of nontarget arthropod taxa for field research on transgenic insecticidal crops: using empirical data and statistical power.

PubMed

Prasifka, J R; Hellmich, R L; Dively, G P; Higgins, L S; Dixon, P M; Duan, J J

2008-02-01

One of the possible adverse effects of transgenic insecticidal crops is the unintended decline in the abundance of nontarget arthropods. Field trials designed to evaluate potential nontarget effects can be more complex than expected because decisions to conduct field trials and the selection of taxa to include are not always guided by the results of laboratory tests. Also, recent studies emphasize the potential for indirect effects (adverse impacts to nontarget arthropods without feeding directly on plant tissues), which are difficult to predict because of interactions among nontarget arthropods, target pests, and transgenic crops. As a consequence, field studies may attempt to monitor expansive lists of arthropod taxa, making the design of such broad studies more difficult and reducing the likelihood of detecting any negative effects that might be present. To improve the taxonomic focus and statistical rigor of future studies, existing field data and corresponding power analysis may provide useful guidance. Analysis of control data from several nontarget field trials using repeated-measures designs suggests that while detection of small effects may require considerable increases in replication, there are taxa from different ecological roles that are sampled effectively using standard methods. The use of statistical power to guide selection of taxa for nontarget trials reflects scientists' inability to predict the complex interactions among arthropod taxa, particularly when laboratory trials fail to provide guidance on which groups are more likely to be affected. However, scientists still may exercise judgment, including taxa that are not included in or supported by power analyses.

Analytical and numerical prediction of harmonic sound power in the inlet of aero-engines with emphasis on transonic rotation speeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewy, Serge; Polacsek, Cyril; Barrier, Raphael

2014-12-01

Tone noise radiated through the inlet of a turbofan is mainly due to rotor-stator interactions at subsonic regimes (approach flight), and to the shock waves attached to each blade at supersonic helical tip speeds (takeoff). The axial compressor of a helicopter turboshaft engine is transonic as well and can be studied like turbofans at takeoff. The objective of the paper is to predict the sound power at the inlet radiating into the free field, with a focus on transonic conditions because sound levels are much higher. Direct numerical computation of tone acoustic power is based on a RANS (Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes) solver followed by an integration of acoustic intensity over specified inlet cross-sections, derived from Cantrell and Hart equations (valid in irrotational flows). In transonic regimes, sound power decreases along the intake because of nonlinear propagation, which must be discriminated from numerical dissipation. This is one of the reasons why an analytical approach is also suggested. It is based on three steps: (i) appraisal of the initial pressure jump of the shock waves; (ii) 2D nonlinear propagation model of Morfey and Fisher; (iii) calculation of the sound power of the 3D ducted acoustic field. In this model, all the blades are assumed to be identical such that only the blade passing frequency and its harmonics are predicted (like in the present numerical simulations). However, transfer from blade passing frequency to multiple pure tones can be evaluated in a fourth step through a statistical analysis of irregularities between blades. Interest of the analytical method is to provide a good estimate of nonlinear acoustic propagation in the upstream duct while being easy and fast to compute. The various methods are applied to two turbofan models, respectively in approach (subsonic) and takeoff (transonic) conditions, and to a Turbomeca turboshaft engine (transonic case). The analytical method in transonic appears to be quite reliable by comparison with the numerical solution and with available experimental data.

Surrogate endpoints for cancer screening trials: general principles and an illustration using the UK Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening Trial.

PubMed

Cuzick, Jack; Cafferty, Fay H; Edwards, Robert; Møller, Henrik; Duffy, Stephen W

2007-01-01

Cancer screening is aimed primarily at reducing deaths. Thus, site-specific cancer mortality is the appropriate endpoint for evaluating screening interventions. However, it is also the most demanding endpoint, requiring follow-up and a large numbers of patients order to have adequate power. Therefore, it is highly desirable to have surrogate endpoints that can reliably predict mortality reductions many years earlier. We here review a range of surrogate markers in terms of their potential advantages and pitfalls, and argue that a measure which weights incident cancers according to their predicted mortality has many advantages over other measures and should be used more routinely. Application to the UK Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening Trial data suggests that predicted colorectal cancer mortality, based on stage-specific incidence, is a more powerful endpoint than actual mortality and could advance the analysis time by about three years. Total colorectal cancer incidence as a surrogate endpoint provides little advance in the analysis time over actual mortality. The approach requires reliable prognostic data, (e.g. stage), for both the study cohort and a representative sample of the whole population. The routine collection of such data should be a priority for cancer registries. Surrogate endpoints should not replace a long-term analysis based directly on mortality, but can provide reliable early indicators which can be useful both for monitoring ongoing screening programmes and for making policy decisions.

Association between expression of random gene sets and survival is evident in multiple cancer types and may be explained by sub-classification.

PubMed

Shimoni, Yishai

2018-02-01

One of the goals of cancer research is to identify a set of genes that cause or control disease progression. However, although multiple such gene sets were published, these are usually in very poor agreement with each other, and very few of the genes proved to be functional therapeutic targets. Furthermore, recent findings from a breast cancer gene-expression cohort showed that sets of genes selected randomly can be used to predict survival with a much higher probability than expected. These results imply that many of the genes identified in breast cancer gene expression analysis may not be causal of cancer progression, even though they can still be highly predictive of prognosis. We performed a similar analysis on all the cancer types available in the cancer genome atlas (TCGA), namely, estimating the predictive power of random gene sets for survival. Our work shows that most cancer types exhibit the property that random selections of genes are more predictive of survival than expected. In contrast to previous work, this property is not removed by using a proliferation signature, which implies that proliferation may not always be the confounder that drives this property. We suggest one possible solution in the form of data-driven sub-classification to reduce this property significantly. Our results suggest that the predictive power of random gene sets may be used to identify the existence of sub-classes in the data, and thus may allow better understanding of patient stratification. Furthermore, by reducing the observed bias this may allow more direct identification of biologically relevant, and potentially causal, genes.

Association between expression of random gene sets and survival is evident in multiple cancer types and may be explained by sub-classification

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

One of the goals of cancer research is to identify a set of genes that cause or control disease progression. However, although multiple such gene sets were published, these are usually in very poor agreement with each other, and very few of the genes proved to be functional therapeutic targets. Furthermore, recent findings from a breast cancer gene-expression cohort showed that sets of genes selected randomly can be used to predict survival with a much higher probability than expected. These results imply that many of the genes identified in breast cancer gene expression analysis may not be causal of cancer progression, even though they can still be highly predictive of prognosis. We performed a similar analysis on all the cancer types available in the cancer genome atlas (TCGA), namely, estimating the predictive power of random gene sets for survival. Our work shows that most cancer types exhibit the property that random selections of genes are more predictive of survival than expected. In contrast to previous work, this property is not removed by using a proliferation signature, which implies that proliferation may not always be the confounder that drives this property. We suggest one possible solution in the form of data-driven sub-classification to reduce this property significantly. Our results suggest that the predictive power of random gene sets may be used to identify the existence of sub-classes in the data, and thus may allow better understanding of patient stratification. Furthermore, by reducing the observed bias this may allow more direct identification of biologically relevant, and potentially causal, genes. PMID:29470520

Integrated modelling of H-mode pedestal and confinement in JET-ILW

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saarelma, S.; Challis, C. D.; Garzotti, L.; Frassinetti, L.; Maggi, C. F.; Romanelli, M.; Stokes, C.; Contributors, JET

2018-01-01

A pedestal prediction model Europed is built on the existing EPED1 model by coupling it with core transport simulation using a Bohm-gyroBohm transport model to self-consistently predict JET-ILW power scan for hybrid plasmas that display weaker power degradation than the IPB98(y, 2) scaling of the energy confinement time. The weak power degradation is reproduced in the coupled core-pedestal simulation. The coupled core-pedestal model is further tested for a 3.0 MA plasma with the highest stored energy achieved in JET-ILW so far, giving a prediction of the stored plasma energy within the error margins of the measured experimental value. A pedestal density prediction model based on the neutral penetration is tested on a JET-ILW database giving a prediction with an average error of 17% from the experimental data when a parameter taking into account the fuelling rate is added into the model. However the model fails to reproduce the power dependence of the pedestal density implying missing transport physics in the model. The future JET-ILW deuterium campaign with increased heating power is predicted to reach plasma energy of 11 MJ, which would correspond to 11-13 MW of fusion power in equivalent deuterium-tritium plasma but with isotope effects on pedestal stability and core transport ignored.

Development of the Mathematics of Learning Curve Models for Evaluating Small Modular Reactor Economics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harrison, T. J.

2014-02-01

The cost of nuclear power is a straightforward yet complicated topic. It is straightforward in that the cost of nuclear power is a function of the cost to build the nuclear power plant, the cost to operate and maintain it, and the cost to provide fuel for it. It is complicated in that some of those costs are not necessarily known, introducing uncertainty into the analysis. For large light water reactor (LWR)-based nuclear power plants, the uncertainty is mainly contained within the cost of construction. The typical costs of operations and maintenance (O&M), as well as fuel, are well knownmore » based on the current fleet of LWRs. However, the last currently operating reactor to come online was Watts Bar 1 in May 1996; thus, the expected construction costs for gigawatt (GW)-class reactors in the United States are based on information nearly two decades old. Extrapolating construction, O&M, and fuel costs from GW-class LWRs to LWR-based small modular reactors (SMRs) introduces even more complication. The per-installed-kilowatt construction costs for SMRs are likely to be higher than those for the GW-class reactors based on the property of the economy of scale. Generally speaking, the economy of scale is the tendency for overall costs to increase slower than the overall production capacity. For power plants, this means that doubling the power production capacity would be expected to cost less than twice as much. Applying this property in the opposite direction, halving the power production capacity would be expected to cost more than half as much. This can potentially make the SMRs less competitive in the electricity market against the GW-class reactors, as well as against other power sources such as natural gas and subsidized renewables. One factor that can potentially aid the SMRs in achieving economic competitiveness is an economy of numbers, as opposed to the economy of scale, associated with learning curves. The basic concept of the learning curve is that the more a new process is repeated, the more efficient the process can be made. Assuming that efficiency directly relates to cost means that the more a new process is repeated successfully and efficiently, the less costly the process can be made. This factor ties directly into the factory fabrication and modularization aspect of the SMR paradigm—manufacturing serial, standardized, identical components for use in nuclear power plants can allow the SMR industry to use the learning curves to predict and optimize deployment costs.« less

Interpreting tracer breakthrough tailing from different forced-gradient tracer experiment configurations in fractured bedrock

USGS Publications Warehouse

Becker, M.W.; Shapiro, A.M.

2003-01-01

Conceptual and mathematical models are presented that explain tracer breakthrough tailing in the absence of significant matrix diffusion. Model predictions are compared to field results from radially convergent, weak-dipole, and push-pull tracer experiments conducted in a saturated crystalline bedrock. The models are based upon the assumption that flow is highly channelized, that the mass of tracer in a channel is proportional to the cube of the mean channel aperture, and the mean transport time in the channel is related to the square of the mean channel aperture. These models predict the consistent -2 straight line power law slope observed in breakthrough from radially convergent and weak-dipole tracer experiments and the variable straight line power law slope observed in push-pull tracer experiments with varying injection volumes. The power law breakthrough slope is predicted in the absence of matrix diffusion. A comparison of tracer experiments in which the flow field was reversed to those in which it was not indicates that the apparent dispersion in the breakthrough curve is partially reversible. We hypothesize that the observed breakthrough tailing is due to a combination of local hydrodynamic dispersion, which always increases in the direction of fluid velocity, and heterogeneous advection, which is partially reversed when the flow field is reversed. In spite of our attempt to account for heterogeneous advection using a multipath approach, a much smaller estimate of hydrodynamic dispersivity was obtained from push-pull experiments than from radially convergent or weak dipole experiments. These results suggest that although we can explain breakthrough tailing as an advective phenomenon, we cannot ignore the relationship between hydrodynamic dispersion and flow field geometry at this site. The design of the tracer experiment can severely impact the estimation of hydrodynamic dispersion and matrix diffusion in highly heterogeneous geologic media.

Laser power beaming: an emerging technology for power transmission and propulsion in space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Harold E.

1997-05-01

A ground based laser beam transmitted to space can be used as an electric utility for satellites. It can significantly increase the electric power available to operate a satellite or to transport it from low earth orbit (LEO) to mid earth or geosynchronous orbits. The increase in electrical power compared to that obtainable from the sun is as much as 1000% for the same size solar panels. An increase in satellite electric power is needed to meet the increasing demands for power caused by the advent of 'direct to home TV,' for increased telecommunications, or for other demands made by the burgeoning 'space highway.' Monetary savings as compared to putting up multiple satellites in the same 'slot' can be over half a billion dollars. To obtain propulsion, the laser power can be beamed through the atmosphere to an 'orbit transfer vehicle' (OTV) satellite which travels back and forth between LEO and higher earth orbits. The OTV will transport the satellite into orbit as does a rocket but does not require the heavy fuel load needed if rocket propulsion is used. Monetary savings of 300% or more in launch costs are predicted. Key elements in the proposed concept are a 100 to 200 kW free- electron laser operating at 0.84 m in the photographic infrared region of the spectrum and a novel adaptive optic telescope.

Supply-demand balance in outward-directed networks and Kleiber's law

PubMed Central

Painter, Page R

2005-01-01

Background Recent theories have attempted to derive the value of the exponent α in the allometric formula for scaling of basal metabolic rate from the properties of distribution network models for arteries and capillaries. It has recently been stated that a basic theorem relating the sum of nutrient currents to the specific nutrient uptake rate, together with a relationship claimed to be required in order to match nutrient supply to nutrient demand in 3-dimensional outward-directed networks, leads to Kleiber's law (b = 3/4). Methods The validity of the supply-demand matching principle and the assumptions required to prove the basic theorem are assessed. The supply-demand principle is evaluated by examining the supply term and the demand term in outward-directed lattice models of nutrient and water distribution systems and by applying the principle to fractal-like models of mammalian arterial systems. Results Application of the supply-demand principle to bifurcating fractal-like networks that are outward-directed does not predict 3/4-power scaling, and evaluation of water distribution system models shows that the matching principle does not match supply to demand in such systems. Furthermore, proof of the basic theorem is shown to require that the covariance of nutrient uptake and current path length is 0, an assumption unlikely to be true in mammalian arterial systems. Conclusion The supply-demand matching principle does not lead to a satisfactory explanation for the approximately 3/4-power scaling of mammalian basal metabolic rate. PMID:16283939

Supply-demand balance in outward-directed networks and Kleiber's law.

PubMed

Painter, Page R

2005-11-10

Recent theories have attempted to derive the value of the exponent alpha in the allometric formula for scaling of basal metabolic rate from the properties of distribution network models for arteries and capillaries. It has recently been stated that a basic theorem relating the sum of nutrient currents to the specific nutrient uptake rate, together with a relationship claimed to be required in order to match nutrient supply to nutrient demand in 3-dimensional outward-directed networks, leads to Kleiber's law (b = 3/4). The validity of the supply-demand matching principle and the assumptions required to prove the basic theorem are assessed. The supply-demand principle is evaluated by examining the supply term and the demand term in outward-directed lattice models of nutrient and water distribution systems and by applying the principle to fractal-like models of mammalian arterial systems. Application of the supply-demand principle to bifurcating fractal-like networks that are outward-directed does not predict 3/4-power scaling, and evaluation of water distribution system models shows that the matching principle does not match supply to demand in such systems. Furthermore, proof of the basic theorem is shown to require that the covariance of nutrient uptake and current path length is 0, an assumption unlikely to be true in mammalian arterial systems. The supply-demand matching principle does not lead to a satisfactory explanation for the approximately 3/4-power scaling of mammalian basal metabolic rate.

The concepts of asymmetric and symmetric power can help resolve the puzzle of altruistic and cooperative behaviour.

PubMed

Phillips, Tim

2018-02-01

Evolutionary theory predicts competition in nature yet altruistic and cooperative behaviour appears to reduce the ability to compete in order to help others compete better. This evolutionary puzzle is usually explained by kin selection where close relatives perform altruistic and cooperative acts to help each other and by reciprocity theory (i.e. direct, indirect and generalized reciprocity) among non-kin. Here, it is proposed that the concepts of asymmetry and symmetry in power and dominance are critical if we are ever to resolve the puzzle of altruism and cooperation towards non-kin. Asymmetry in power and dominance is likely to emerge under competition in nature as individuals strive to gain greater access to the scarce resources needed to survive and reproduce successfully. Yet asymmetric power presents serious problems for reciprocity theory in that a dominant individual faces a temptation to cheat in interactions with subordinates that is likely to far outweigh any individual selective benefits gained through reciprocal mechanisms. Furthermore, action taken by subordinates to deter non-reciprocation by dominants is likely to prove prohibitively costly to their fitness, making successful enforcement of reciprocal mechanisms unlikely. It is also argued here that many apparently puzzling forms of cooperation observed in nature (e.g. cooperative breeding in which unrelated subordinates help dominants to breed) might be best explained by asymmetry in power and dominance. Once it is recognized that individuals in these cooperative interactions are subject to the constraints and opportunities imposed on them by asymmetric power then they can be seen as pursuing a 'least bad' strategy to promote individual fitness - one that is nevertheless consistent with evolutionary theory. The concept of symmetric power also provides important insights. It can inhibit reciprocal mechanisms in the sense that symmetric power makes it easier for a cheat to appropriate common resources while incurring fewer penalties. Nevertheless under certain restrictive conditions, symmetric power is seen as likely to promote direct reciprocity through 'tit for tat'. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Compatibility of Segments of Thermoelectric Generators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Snyder, G. Jeffrey; Ursell, Tristan

2009-01-01

A method of calculating (usually for the purpose of maximizing) the power-conversion efficiency of a segmented thermoelectric generator is based on equations derived from the fundamental equations of thermoelectricity. Because it is directly traceable to first principles, the method provides physical explanations in addition to predictions of phenomena involved in segmentation. In comparison with the finite-element method used heretofore to predict (without being able to explain) the behavior of a segmented thermoelectric generator, this method is much simpler to implement in practice: in particular, the efficiency of a segmented thermoelectric generator can be estimated by evaluating equations using only hand-held calculator with this method. In addition, the method provides for determination of cascading ratios. The concept of cascading is illustrated in the figure and the definition of the cascading ratio is defined in the figure caption. An important aspect of the method is its approach to the issue of compatibility among segments, in combination with introduction of the concept of compatibility within a segment. Prior approaches involved the use of only averaged material properties. Two materials in direct contact could be examined for compatibility with each other, but there was no general framework for analysis of compatibility. The present method establishes such a framework. The mathematical derivation of the method begins with the definition of reduced efficiency of a thermoelectric generator as the ratio between (1) its thermal-to-electric power-conversion efficiency and (2) its Carnot efficiency (the maximum efficiency theoretically attainable, given its hot- and cold-side temperatures). The derivation involves calculation of the reduced efficiency of a model thermoelectric generator for which the hot-side temperature is only infinitesimally greater than the cold-side temperature. The derivation includes consideration of the ratio (u) between the electric current and heat-conduction power and leads to the concept of compatibility factor (s) for a given thermoelectric material, defined as the value of u that maximizes the reduced efficiency of the aforementioned model thermoelectric generator.

Entangled, guided photon generation in (1+1)-dimensional photonic crystals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sciscione, L.; Centini, M.; Sibilia, C.

A scheme based on photonic crystal technology is proposed as an ultrabright source of entangled photons on a miniaturized scale. The geometry consists of a multilayer microcavity, excited by a resonant pump frequency, such that the emitted photons are guided transversally to the direction of the incident pump. The entanglement occurs in direction, frequency, and polarization, and the bandwidth of the emitted photons is of the order of 1 nm. We propose a feasible design based on Al{sub 0.3}Ga{sub 0.7}As/Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} structures and predict an emission rate 10{sup 5} pairs per second with 100 mW pump power. These resultsmore » are promising for realization of chip and future quantum computer applications.« less

Theoretical and experimental aspects of laser cutting with a direct diode laser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa Rodrigues, G.; Pencinovsky, J.; Cuypers, M.; Duflou, J. R.

2014-10-01

Recent developments in beam coupling techniques have made it possible to scale up the power of diode lasers with a laser beam quality suitable for laser cutting of metal sheets. In this paper a prototype of a Direct Diode Laser (DDL) source (BPP of 22 mm-mrad) is analyzed in terms of efficiency and cut performance and compared with two established technologies, CO2 and fiber lasers. An analytical model based on absorption calculations is used to predict the performance of the studied laser source with a good agreement with experimental results. Furthermore results of fusion cutting of stainless steel and aluminium alloys as well as oxygen cutting of structural steel are presented, demonstrating that industrial relevant cutting speeds with high cutting quality can now be achieved with DDL.

Does Spontaneous Favorability to Power (vs. Universalism) Values Predict Spontaneous Prejudice and Discrimination?

PubMed

Souchon, Nicolas; Maio, Gregory R; Hanel, Paul H P; Bardin, Brigitte

2017-10-01

We conducted five studies testing whether an implicit measure of favorability toward power over universalism values predicts spontaneous prejudice and discrimination. Studies 1 (N = 192) and 2 (N = 86) examined correlations between spontaneous favorability toward power (vs. universalism) values, achievement (vs. benevolence) values, and a spontaneous measure of prejudice toward ethnic minorities. Study 3 (N = 159) tested whether conditioning participants to associate power values with positive adjectives and universalism values with negative adjectives (or inversely) affects spontaneous prejudice. Study 4 (N = 95) tested whether decision bias toward female handball players could be predicted by spontaneous attitude toward power (vs. universalism) values. Study 5 (N = 123) examined correlations between spontaneous attitude toward power (vs. universalism) values, spontaneous importance toward power (vs. universalism) values, and spontaneous prejudice toward Black African people. Spontaneous positivity toward power (vs. universalism) values was associated with spontaneous negativity toward minorities and predicted gender bias in a decision task, whereas the explicit measures did not. These results indicate that the implicit assessment of evaluative responses attached to human values helps to model value-attitude-behavior relations. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Personality Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Progress towards an Optimization Methodology for Combustion-Driven Portable Thermoelectric Power Generation Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnan, Shankar; Karri, Naveen K.; Gogna, Pawan K.

2012-03-13

Enormous military and commercial interests exist in developing quiet, lightweight, and compact thermoelectric (TE) power generation systems. This paper investigates design integration and analysis of an advanced TE power generation system implementing JP-8 fueled combustion and thermal recuperation. Design and development of a portable TE power system using a JP-8 combustor as a high temperature heat source and optimal process flows depend on efficient heat generation, transfer, and recovery within the system are explored. Design optimization of the system required considering the combustion system efficiency and TE conversion efficiency simultaneously. The combustor performance and TE sub-system performance were coupled directlymore » through exhaust temperatures, fuel and air mass flow rates, heat exchanger performance, subsequent hot-side temperatures, and cold-side cooling techniques and temperatures. Systematic investigation of this system relied on accurate thermodynamic modeling of complex, high-temperature combustion processes concomitantly with detailed thermoelectric converter thermal/mechanical modeling. To this end, this work reports on design integration of systemlevel process flow simulations using commercial software CHEMCADTM with in-house thermoelectric converter and module optimization, and heat exchanger analyses using COMSOLTM software. High-performance, high-temperature TE materials and segmented TE element designs are incorporated in coupled design analyses to achieve predicted TE subsystem level conversion efficiencies exceeding 10%. These TE advances are integrated with a high performance microtechnology combustion reactor based on recent advances at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). Predictions from this coupled simulation established a basis for optimal selection of fuel and air flow rates, thermoelectric module design and operating conditions, and microtechnology heat-exchanger design criteria. This paper will discuss this simulation process that leads directly to system efficiency power maps defining potentially available optimal system operating conditions and regimes. This coupled simulation approach enables pathways for integrated use of high-performance combustor components, high performance TE devices, and microtechnologies to produce a compact, lightweight, combustion driven TE power system prototype that operates on common fuels.« less

Inverter power module with distributed support for direct substrate cooling

DOEpatents

Miller, David Harold [San Pedro, CA; Korich, Mark D [Chino Hills, CA; Ward, Terence G [Redondo Beach, CA; Mann, Brooks S [Redondo Beach, CA

2012-08-21

Systems and/or methods are provided for an inverter power module with distributed support for direct substrate cooling. An inverter module comprises a power electronic substrate. A first support frame is adapted to house the power electronic substrate and has a first region adapted to allow direct cooling of the power electronic substrate. A gasket is interposed between the power electronic substrate and the first support frame. The gasket is configured to provide a seal between the first region and the power electronic substrate. A second support frame is adapted to house the power electronic substrate and joined to the first support frame to form the seal.

Electric Power Engineering Cost Predicting Model Based on the PCA-GA-BP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Lei; Yu, Jiake; Zhao, Xin

2017-10-01

In this paper a hybrid prediction algorithm: PCA-GA-BP model is proposed. PCA algorithm is established to reduce the correlation between indicators of original data and decrease difficulty of BP neural network in complex dimensional calculation. The BP neural network is established to estimate the cost of power transmission project. The results show that PCA-GA-BP algorithm can improve result of prediction of electric power engineering cost.

Application of Deep Learning in Automated Analysis of Molecular Images in Cancer: A Survey

PubMed Central

Xue, Yong; Chen, Shihui; Liu, Yong

2017-01-01

Molecular imaging enables the visualization and quantitative analysis of the alterations of biological procedures at molecular and/or cellular level, which is of great significance for early detection of cancer. In recent years, deep leaning has been widely used in medical imaging analysis, as it overcomes the limitations of visual assessment and traditional machine learning techniques by extracting hierarchical features with powerful representation capability. Research on cancer molecular images using deep learning techniques is also increasing dynamically. Hence, in this paper, we review the applications of deep learning in molecular imaging in terms of tumor lesion segmentation, tumor classification, and survival prediction. We also outline some future directions in which researchers may develop more powerful deep learning models for better performance in the applications in cancer molecular imaging. PMID:29114182

Validation of spatially resolved all sky imager derived DNI nowcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhn, Pascal; Wilbert, Stefan; Schüler, David; Prahl, Christoph; Haase, Thomas; Ramirez, Lourdes; Zarzalejo, Luis; Meyer, Angela; Vuilleumier, Laurent; Blanc, Philippe; Dubrana, Jean; Kazantzidis, Andreas; Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion; Hirsch, Tobias; Pitz-Paal, Robert

2017-06-01

Mainly due to clouds, Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) displays short-term local variabilities affecting the efficiency of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants. To enable efficient plant operation, DNI nowcasts in high spatial and temporal resolutions for 15 to 30 minutes ahead are required. Ground-based All Sky Imagers (ASI) can be used to detect, track and predict 3D positions of clouds possibly shading the plant. The accuracy and reliability of these ASI-derived DNI nowcasts must be known to allow its application in solar power plants. Within the framework of the European project DNICast, an ASI-based nowcasting system was developed and implemented at the Plataforma Solar de Almería (PSA). Its validation methodology and validation results are presented in this work. The nowcasting system outperforms persistence forecasts for volatile irradiance situations.

Compensation of strong thermal lensing in high-optical-power cavities.

PubMed

Zhao, C; Degallaix, J; Ju, L; Fan, Y; Blair, D G; Slagmolen, B J J; Gray, M B; Lowry, C M Mow; McClelland, D E; Hosken, D J; Mudge, D; Brooks, A; Munch, J; Veitch, P J; Barton, M A; Billingsley, G

2006-06-16

In an experiment to simulate the conditions in high optical power advanced gravitational wave detectors, we show for the first time that the time evolution of strong thermal lenses follows the predicted infinite sum of exponentials (approximated by a double exponential), and that such lenses can be compensated using an intracavity compensation plate heated on its cylindrical surface. We show that high finesse approximately 1400 can be achieved in cavities with internal compensation plates, and that mode matching can be maintained. The experiment achieves a wave front distortion similar to that expected for the input test mass substrate in the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory, and shows that thermal compensation schemes are viable. It is also shown that the measurements allow a direct measurement of substrate optical absorption in the test mass and the compensation plate.

Intermittency between avalanche regimes on grain piles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arran, M. I.; Vriend, N. M.

2018-06-01

We experimentally investigate discrete avalanches of grains, driven by a low inflow rate, on an erodible pile in a channel. We observe intermittency between one regime, in which avalanches are quasiperiodic and system spanning, and another, in which they pass at irregular intervals and have a power-law size distribution. Observations are robust to changes of inflow rate and grain type and require no tuning of external parameters. We demonstrate that the state of the pile's surface determines whether avalanche fronts propagate to the end of the channel or stop partway down, and we introduce a toy model for the latter case that reproduces the observed power-law size distribution. We suggest direct applications to avalanches of pharmaceutical and geophysical grains, and the possibility of reconciling the "self-organized criticality" predicted by several authors with the hysteretic behavior described by others.

Intelligence in the brain: a theory of how it works and how to build it.

PubMed

Werbos, Paul J

2009-04-01

This paper presents a theory of how general-purpose learning-based intelligence is achieved in the mammal brain, and how we can replicate it. It reviews four generations of ever more powerful general-purpose learning designs in Adaptive, Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP), which includes reinforcement learning as a special case. It reviews empirical results which fit the theory, and suggests important new directions for research, within the scope of NSF's recent initiative on Cognitive Optimization and Prediction. The appendices suggest possible connections to the realms of human subjective experience, comparative cognitive neuroscience, and new challenges in electric power. The major challenge before us today in mathematical neural networks is to replicate the "mouse level", but the paper does contain a few thoughts about building, understanding and nourishing levels of general intelligence beyond the mouse.

Evaluation of Data-Driven Models for Predicting Solar Photovoltaics Power Output

DOE PAGES

Moslehi, Salim; Reddy, T. Agami; Katipamula, Srinivas

2017-09-10

This research was undertaken to evaluate different inverse models for predicting power output of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems under different practical scenarios. In particular, we have investigated whether PV power output prediction accuracy can be improved if module/cell temperature was measured in addition to climatic variables, and also the extent to which prediction accuracy degrades if solar irradiation is not measured on the plane of array but only on a horizontal surface. We have also investigated the significance of different independent or regressor variables, such as wind velocity and incident angle modifier in predicting PV power output and cell temperature.more » The inverse regression model forms have been evaluated both in terms of their goodness-of-fit, and their accuracy and robustness in terms of their predictive performance. Given the accuracy of the measurements, expected CV-RMSE of hourly power output prediction over the year varies between 3.2% and 8.6% when only climatic data are used. Depending on what type of measured climatic and PV performance data is available, different scenarios have been identified and the corresponding appropriate modeling pathways have been proposed. The corresponding models are to be implemented on a controller platform for optimum operational planning of microgrids and integrated energy systems.« less

Improved techniques for predicting spacecraft power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chmielewski, A. B.

1987-01-01

Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) are going to supply power for the NASA Galileo and Ulysses spacecraft now scheduled to be launched in 1989 and 1990. The duration of the Galileo mission is expected to be over 8 years. This brings the total RTG lifetime to 13 years. In 13 years, the RTG power drops more than 20 percent leaving a very small power margin over what is consumed by the spacecraft. Thus it is very important to accurately predict the RTG performance and be able to assess the magnitude of errors involved. The paper lists all the error sources involved in the RTG power predictions and describes a statistical method for calculating the tolerance.

Near-term Forecasting of Solar Total and Direct Irradiance for Solar Energy Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, C. N.; Riihimaki, L. D.; Berg, L. K.

2012-12-01

Integration of solar renewable energy into the power grid, like wind energy, is hindered by the variable nature of the solar resource. One challenge of the integration problem for shorter time periods is the phenomenon of "ramping events" where the electrical output of the solar power system increases or decreases significantly and rapidly over periods of minutes or less. Advance warning, of even just a few minutes, allows power system operators to compensate for the ramping. However, the ability for short-term prediction on such local "point" scales is beyond the abilities of typical model-based weather forecasting. Use of surface-based solar radiation measurements has been recognized as a likely solution for providing input for near-term (5 to 30 minute) forecasts of solar energy availability and variability. However, it must be noted that while fixed-orientation photovoltaic panel systems use the total (global) downwelling solar radiation, tracking photovoltaic and solar concentrator systems use only the direct normal component of the solar radiation. Thus even accurate near-term forecasts of total solar radiation will under many circumstances include inherent inaccuracies with respect to tracking systems due to lack of information of the direct component of the solar radiation. We will present examples and statistical analyses of solar radiation partitioning showing the differences in the behavior of the total/direct radiation with respect to the near-term forecast issue. We will present an overview of the possibility of using a network of unique new commercially available total/diffuse radiometers in conjunction with a near-real-time adaptation of the Shortwave Radiative Flux Analysis methodology (Long and Ackerman, 2000; Long et al., 2006). The results are used, in conjunction with persistence and tendency forecast techniques, to provide more accurate near-term forecasts of cloudiness, and both total and direct normal solar irradiance availability and variability. This new system could be a long term economical solution for solar energy applications.xample of SW Flux Analysis global hemispheric (light blue) and direct (yellow) clear-sky shortwave (SW) along with corresponding actual global hemispheric (blue) and direct (red) SW, and the corresponding fractional sky cover (black, right Y-axis). Note in afternoon about 40-50% of the global SW is available, yet most times there is no direct SW.

ESB-based Sensor Web integration for the prediction of electric power supply system vulnerability.

PubMed

Stoimenov, Leonid; Bogdanovic, Milos; Bogdanovic-Dinic, Sanja

2013-08-15

Electric power supply companies increasingly rely on enterprise IT systems to provide them with a comprehensive view of the state of the distribution network. Within a utility-wide network, enterprise IT systems collect data from various metering devices. Such data can be effectively used for the prediction of power supply network vulnerability. The purpose of this paper is to present the Enterprise Service Bus (ESB)-based Sensor Web integration solution that we have developed with the purpose of enabling prediction of power supply network vulnerability, in terms of a prediction of defect probability for a particular network element. We will give an example of its usage and demonstrate our vulnerability prediction model on data collected from two different power supply companies. The proposed solution is an extension of the GinisSense Sensor Web-based architecture for collecting, processing, analyzing, decision making and alerting based on the data received from heterogeneous data sources. In this case, GinisSense has been upgraded to be capable of operating in an ESB environment and combine Sensor Web and GIS technologies to enable prediction of electric power supply system vulnerability. Aside from electrical values, the proposed solution gathers ambient values from additional sensors installed in the existing power supply network infrastructure. GinisSense aggregates gathered data according to an adapted Omnibus data fusion model and applies decision-making logic on the aggregated data. Detected vulnerabilities are visualized to end-users through means of a specialized Web GIS application.

ESB-Based Sensor Web Integration for the Prediction of Electric Power Supply System Vulnerability

PubMed Central

Stoimenov, Leonid; Bogdanovic, Milos; Bogdanovic-Dinic, Sanja

2013-01-01

Electric power supply companies increasingly rely on enterprise IT systems to provide them with a comprehensive view of the state of the distribution network. Within a utility-wide network, enterprise IT systems collect data from various metering devices. Such data can be effectively used for the prediction of power supply network vulnerability. The purpose of this paper is to present the Enterprise Service Bus (ESB)-based Sensor Web integration solution that we have developed with the purpose of enabling prediction of power supply network vulnerability, in terms of a prediction of defect probability for a particular network element. We will give an example of its usage and demonstrate our vulnerability prediction model on data collected from two different power supply companies. The proposed solution is an extension of the GinisSense Sensor Web-based architecture for collecting, processing, analyzing, decision making and alerting based on the data received from heterogeneous data sources. In this case, GinisSense has been upgraded to be capable of operating in an ESB environment and combine Sensor Web and GIS technologies to enable prediction of electric power supply system vulnerability. Aside from electrical values, the proposed solution gathers ambient values from additional sensors installed in the existing power supply network infrastructure. GinisSense aggregates gathered data according to an adapted Omnibus data fusion model and applies decision-making logic on the aggregated data. Detected vulnerabilities are visualized to end-users through means of a specialized Web GIS application. PMID:23955435

From documentation to prediction: Raising the bar for thermokarst research

DOE PAGES

Rowland, Joel C.; Coon, Ethan T.

2015-11-12

Here we report that to date the majority of published research on thermokarst has been directed at documenting its form, occurrence, and rates of occurrence. The fundamental processes driving thermokarst have long been largely understood. However, the detailed physical couplings between, water, air, soil, and the thermal dynamics governing freeze-thaw and soil mechanics is less understood and not captured in models aimed at predicting the response of frozen soils to warming and thaw. As computational resources increase more sophisticated mechanistic models can be applied; these show great promise as predictive tools. These models will be capable of simulating the responsemore » of soil deformation to thawing/freezing cycles and the long-term, non-recoverable response of the land surface to the loss of ice. At the same time, advances in remote sensing of permafrost environments also show promise in providing detailed and spatially extensive estimates in the rates and patterns of subsidence. These datasets provide key constraints to calibrate and evaluate the predictive power of mechanistic models. In conclusion, in the coming decade, these emerging technologies will greatly increase our ability to predict when, where, and how thermokarst will occur in a changing climate.« less

Effect of heteroscedasticity treatment in residual error models on model calibration and prediction uncertainty estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ruochen; Yuan, Huiling; Liu, Xiaoli

2017-11-01

The heteroscedasticity treatment in residual error models directly impacts the model calibration and prediction uncertainty estimation. This study compares three methods to deal with the heteroscedasticity, including the explicit linear modeling (LM) method and nonlinear modeling (NL) method using hyperbolic tangent function, as well as the implicit Box-Cox transformation (BC). Then a combined approach (CA) combining the advantages of both LM and BC methods has been proposed. In conjunction with the first order autoregressive model and the skew exponential power (SEP) distribution, four residual error models are generated, namely LM-SEP, NL-SEP, BC-SEP and CA-SEP, and their corresponding likelihood functions are applied to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model over the Huaihe River basin, China. Results show that the LM-SEP yields the poorest streamflow predictions with the widest uncertainty band and unrealistic negative flows. The NL and BC methods can better deal with the heteroscedasticity and hence their corresponding predictive performances are improved, yet the negative flows cannot be avoided. The CA-SEP produces the most accurate predictions with the highest reliability and effectively avoids the negative flows, because the CA approach is capable of addressing the complicated heteroscedasticity over the study basin.

Power quality analysis based on spatial correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiangtao; Zhao, Gang; Liu, Haibo; Li, Fenghou; Liu, Xiaoli

2018-03-01

With the industrialization and urbanization, the status of electricity in the production and life is getting higher and higher. So the prediction of power quality is the more potential significance. Traditional power quality analysis methods include: power quality data compression, disturbance event pattern classification, disturbance parameter calculation. Under certain conditions, these methods can predict power quality. This paper analyses the temporal variation of power quality of one provincial power grid in China from time angle. The distribution of power quality was analyzed based on spatial autocorrelation. This paper tries to prove that the research idea of geography is effective for mining the potential information of power quality.

RELATING ACCUMULATOR MODEL PARAMETERS AND NEURAL DYNAMICS

PubMed Central

Purcell, Braden A.; Palmeri, Thomas J.

2016-01-01

Accumulator models explain decision-making as an accumulation of evidence to a response threshold. Specific model parameters are associated with specific model mechanisms, such as the time when accumulation begins, the average rate of evidence accumulation, and the threshold. These mechanisms determine both the within-trial dynamics of evidence accumulation and the predicted behavior. Cognitive modelers usually infer what mechanisms vary during decision-making by seeing what parameters vary when a model is fitted to observed behavior. The recent identification of neural activity with evidence accumulation suggests that it may be possible to directly infer what mechanisms vary from an analysis of how neural dynamics vary. However, evidence accumulation is often noisy, and noise complicates the relationship between accumulator dynamics and the underlying mechanisms leading to those dynamics. To understand what kinds of inferences can be made about decision-making mechanisms based on measures of neural dynamics, we measured simulated accumulator model dynamics while systematically varying model parameters. In some cases, decision- making mechanisms can be directly inferred from dynamics, allowing us to distinguish between models that make identical behavioral predictions. In other cases, however, different parameterized mechanisms produce surprisingly similar dynamics, limiting the inferences that can be made based on measuring dynamics alone. Analyzing neural dynamics can provide a powerful tool to resolve model mimicry at the behavioral level, but we caution against drawing inferences based solely on neural analyses. Instead, simultaneous modeling of behavior and neural dynamics provides the most powerful approach to understand decision-making and likely other aspects of cognition and perception. PMID:28392584

Rotary engine performance limits predicted by a zero-dimensional model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartrand, Timothy A.; Willis, Edward A.

1992-01-01

A parametric study was performed to determine the performance limits of a rotary combustion engine. This study shows how well increasing the combustion rate, insulating, and turbocharging increase brake power and decrease fuel consumption. Several generalizations can be made from the findings. First, it was shown that the fastest combustion rate is not necessarily the best combustion rate. Second, several engine insulation schemes were employed for a turbocharged engine. Performance improved only for a highly insulated engine. Finally, the variability of turbocompounding and the influence of exhaust port shape were calculated. Rotary engines performance was predicted by an improved zero-dimensional computer model based on a model developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the 1980's. Independent variables in the study include turbocharging, manifold pressures, wall thermal properties, leakage area, and exhaust port geometry. Additions to the computer programs since its results were last published include turbocharging, manifold modeling, and improved friction power loss calculation. The baseline engine for this study is a single rotor 650 cc direct-injection stratified-charge engine with aluminum housings and a stainless steel rotor. Engine maps are provided for the baseline and turbocharged versions of the engine.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Tony Y.; Wechsler, Risa H.; Devaraj, Kiruthika

Intensity mapping, which images a single spectral line from unresolved galaxies across cosmological volumes, is a promising technique for probing the early universe. Here we present predictions for the intensity map and power spectrum of the CO(1–0) line from galaxies atmore » $$z\\sim 2.4$$–2.8, based on a parameterized model for the galaxy–halo connection, and demonstrate the extent to which properties of high-redshift galaxies can be directly inferred from such observations. We find that our fiducial prediction should be detectable by a realistic experiment. Motivated by significant modeling uncertainties, we demonstrate the effect on the power spectrum of varying each parameter in our model. Using simulated observations, we infer constraints on our model parameter space with an MCMC procedure, and show corresponding constraints on the $${L}_{\\mathrm{IR}}$$–$${L}_{\\mathrm{CO}}$$ relation and the CO luminosity function. These constraints would be complementary to current high-redshift galaxy observations, which can detect the brightest galaxies but not complete samples from the faint end of the luminosity function. Furthermore, by probing these populations in aggregate, CO intensity mapping could be a valuable tool for probing molecular gas and its relation to star formation in high-redshift galaxies.« less

Design and experiment of a directional coupler for X-band long pulse high power microwaves.

PubMed

Bai, Zhen; Li, Guolin; Zhang, Jun; Jin, Zhenxing

2013-03-01

Higher power and longer pulse are the trend of the development of high power microwave (HPM), and then some problems emerge in measuring the power of HPM because rf breakdown is easier to occur under the circumstance of high power (the level of gigawatt) and long pulse (about 100 ns). In order to measure the power of the dominant TM₀₁ mode of an X-band long pulse overmoded HPM source, a directional coupler with stable coupling coefficient, high directivity, and high power handling capacity in wide band is investigated numerically and experimentally. At the central frequency 9.4 GHz, the simulation results show that the coupling coefficient is -59.6 dB with the directivity of 35 dB and the power handling capacity of 2 GW. The coupling coefficient is calibrated to be accordant with the simulation results. The high power tests are performed on an X-band long pulse HPM source, whose output mode is mainly TM₀₁ mode, and the results show that the measured power and waveform of the directional coupler have a good consistency with the far-field measuring results.

Relationships and Predictive Capabilities of Jump Assessments to Soccer-Specific Field Test Performance in Division I Collegiate Players.

PubMed

Lockie, Robert G; Stage, Alyssa A; Stokes, John J; Orjalo, Ashley J; Davis, DeShaun L; Giuliano, Dominic V; Moreno, Matthew R; Risso, Fabrice G; Lazar, Adrina; Birmingham-Babauta, Samantha A; Tomita, Tricia M

2016-12-03

Leg power is an important characteristic for soccer, and jump tests can measure this capacity. Limited research has analyzed relationships between jumping and soccer-specific field test performance in collegiate male players. Nineteen Division I players completed tests of: leg power (vertical jump (VJ), standing broad jump (SBJ), left- and right-leg triple hop (TH)); linear (30 m sprint; 0⁻5 m, 5⁻10 m, 0⁻10, 0⁻30 m intervals) and change-of-direction (505) speed; soccer-specific fitness (Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Test Level 2); and 7 × 30-m sprints to measure repeated-sprint ability (RSA; total time (TT), performance decrement (PD)). Pearson's correlations ( r ) determined jump and field test relationships; stepwise regression ascertained jump predictors of the tests ( p < 0.05). All jumps correlated with the 0⁻5, 0⁻10, and 0⁻30 m sprint intervals ( r = -0.65⁻-0.90). VJ, SBJ, and left- and right-leg TH correlated with RSA TT ( r = -0.51⁻-0.59). Right-leg TH predicted the 0⁻5 and 0⁻10 m intervals (R² = 0.55⁻0.81); the VJ predicted the 0⁻30 m interval and RSA TT (R² = 0.41⁻0.84). Between-leg TH asymmetry correlated with and predicted left-leg 505 and RSA PD ( r = -0.68⁻0.62; R² = 0.39⁻0.46). Improvements in jumping ability could contribute to faster speed and RSA performance in collegiate soccer players.

Pneumococcal pneumonia - Are the new severity scores more accurate in predicting adverse outcomes?

PubMed

Ribeiro, C; Ladeira, I; Gaio, A R; Brito, M C

2013-01-01

The site-of-care decision is one of the most important factors in the management of patients with community-acquired pneumonia. The severity scores are validated prognostic tools for community-acquired pneumonia mortality and treatment site decision. The aim of this paper was to compare the discriminatory power of four scores - the classic PSI and CURB65 ant the most recent SCAP and SMART-COP - in predicting major adverse events: death, ICU admission, need for invasive mechanical ventilation or vasopressor support in patients admitted with pneumococcal pneumonia. A five year retrospective study of patients admitted for pneumococcal pneumonia. Patients were stratified based on admission data and assigned to low-, intermediate-, and high-risk classes for each score. Results were obtained comparing low versus non-low risk classes. We studied 142 episodes of hospitalization with 2 deaths and 10 patients needing mechanical ventilation and vasopressor support. The majority of patients were classified as low risk by all scores - we found high negative predictive values for all adverse events studied, the most negative value corresponding to the SCAP score. The more recent scores showed better accuracy for predicting ICU admission and need for ventilation or vasopressor support (mostly for the SCAP score with higher AUC values for all adverse events). The rate of all adverse outcomes increased directly with increasing risk class in all scores. The new gravity scores appear to have a higher discriminatory power in all adverse events in our study, particularly, the SCAP score. Copyright © 2012 Sociedade Portuguesa de Pneumologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Direct current power delivery system and method

DOEpatents

Zhang, Di; Garces, Luis Jose; Dai, Jian; Lai, Rixin

2016-09-06

A power transmission system includes a first unit for carrying out the steps of receiving high voltage direct current (HVDC) power from an HVDC power line, generating an alternating current (AC) component indicative of a status of the first unit, and adding the AC component to the HVDC power line. Further, the power transmission system includes a second unit for carrying out the steps of generating a direct current (DC) voltage to transfer the HVDC power on the HVDC power line, wherein the HVDC power line is coupled between the first unit and the second unit, detecting a presence or an absence of the added AC component in the HVDC power line, and determining the status of the first unit based on the added AC component.

Predicting power-optimal kinematics of avian wings

PubMed Central

Parslew, Ben

2015-01-01

A theoretical model of avian flight is developed which simulates wing motion through a class of methods known as predictive simulation. This approach uses numerical optimization to predict power-optimal kinematics of avian wings in hover, cruise, climb and descent. The wing dynamics capture both aerodynamic and inertial loads. The model is used to simulate the flight of the pigeon, Columba livia, and the results are compared with previous experimental measurements. In cruise, the model unearths a vast range of kinematic modes that are capable of generating the required forces for flight. The most efficient mode uses a near-vertical stroke–plane and a flexed-wing upstroke, similar to kinematics recorded experimentally. In hover, the model predicts that the power-optimal mode uses an extended-wing upstroke, similar to hummingbirds. In flexing their wings, pigeons are predicted to consume 20% more power than if they kept their wings full extended, implying that the typical kinematics used by pigeons in hover are suboptimal. Predictions of climbing flight suggest that the most energy-efficient way to reach a given altitude is to climb as steeply as possible, subjected to the availability of power. PMID:25392398

Performance of comorbidity, risk adjustment, and functional status measures in expenditure prediction for patients with diabetes.

PubMed

Maciejewski, Matthew L; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D

2009-01-01

To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline expenditures were constructed from administrative and survey data. Outpatient, inpatient, and total expenditure models were estimated using ordinary least squares regression. Adjusted R(2) statistics and predictive ratios were compared across measures to assess overall explanatory power and explanatory power of low- and high-cost subgroups. Administrative data-based risk adjusters performed better than the comorbidity, functional status, and diabetes-specific measures in all expenditure models. The diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) measure had the greatest predictive power overall and for the low- and high-cost subgroups, while the diabetes-specific measure had the lowest predictive power. A model with DCGs and the diabetes-specific measure modestly improved predictive power. Existing generic measures can be useful for diabetes-specific research and policy applications, but more predictive diabetes-specific measures are needed.

Prediction of light aircraft interior sound pressure level using the room equation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atwal, M.; Bernhard, R.

1984-01-01

The room equation is investigated for predicting interior sound level. The method makes use of an acoustic power balance, by equating net power flow into the cabin volume to power dissipated within the cabin using the room equation. The sound power level transmitted through the panels was calculated by multiplying the measured space averaged transmitted intensity for each panel by its surface area. The sound pressure level was obtained by summing the mean square sound pressures radiated from each panel. The data obtained supported the room equation model in predicting the cabin interior sound pressure level.

Multi-Temporal Decomposed Wind and Load Power Models for Electric Energy Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel-Karim, Noha

This thesis is motivated by the recognition that sources of uncertainties in electric power systems are multifold and may have potentially far-reaching effects. In the past, only system load forecast was considered to be the main challenge. More recently, however, the uncertain price of electricity and hard-to-predict power produced by renewable resources, such as wind and solar, are making the operating and planning environment much more challenging. The near-real-time power imbalances are compensated by means of frequency regulation and generally require fast-responding costly resources. Because of this, a more accurate forecast and look-ahead scheduling would result in a reduced need for expensive power balancing. Similarly, long-term planning and seasonal maintenance need to take into account long-term demand forecast as well as how the short-term generation scheduling is done. The better the demand forecast, the more efficient planning will be as well. Moreover, computer algorithms for scheduling and planning are essential in helping the system operators decide what to schedule and planners what to build. This is needed given the overall complexity created by different abilities to adjust the power output of generation technologies, demand uncertainties and by the network delivery constraints. Given the growing presence of major uncertainties, it is likely that the main control applications will use more probabilistic approaches. Today's predominantly deterministic methods will be replaced by methods which account for key uncertainties as decisions are made. It is well-understood that although demand and wind power cannot be predicted at very high accuracy, taking into consideration predictions and scheduling in a look-ahead way over several time horizons generally results in more efficient and reliable utilization, than when decisions are made assuming deterministic, often worst-case scenarios. This change is in approach is going to ultimately require new electricity market rules capable of providing the right incentives to manage uncertainties and of differentiating various technologies according to the rate at which they can respond to ever changing conditions. Given the overall need for modeling uncertainties in electric energy systems, we consider in this thesis the problem of multi-temporal modeling of wind and demand power, in particular. Historic data is used to derive prediction models for several future time horizons. Short-term prediction models derived can be used for look-ahead economic dispatch and unit commitment, while the long-term annual predictive models can be used for investment planning. As expected, the accuracy of such predictive models depends on the time horizons over which the predictions are made, as well as on the nature of uncertain signals. It is shown that predictive models obtained using the same general modeling approaches result in different accuracy for wind than for demand power. In what follows, we introduce several models which have qualitatively different patterns, ranging from hourly to annual. We first transform historic time-stamped data into the Fourier Transform (Fr) representation. The frequency domain data representation is used to decompose the wind and load power signals and to derive predictive models relevant for short-term and long-term predictions using extracted spectral techniques. The short-term results are interpreted next as a Linear Prediction Coding Model (LPC) and its accuracy is analyzed. Next, a new Markov-Based Sensitivity Model (MBSM) for short term prediction has been proposed and the dispatched costs of uncertainties for different predictive models with comparisons have been developed. Moreover, the Discrete Markov Process (DMP) representation is applied to help assess probabilities of most likely short-, medium- and long-term states and the related multi-temporal risks. In addition, this thesis discusses operational impacts of wind power integration in different scenario levels by performing more than 9,000 AC Optimal Power Flow runs. The effects of both wind and load variations on system constraints and costs are presented. The limitations of DC Optimal Power Flow (DCOPF) vs. ACOPF are emphasized by means of system convergence problems due to the effect of wind power on changing line flows and net power injections. By studying the effect of having wind power on line flows, we found that the divergence problem applies in areas with high wind and hydro generation capacity share (cheap generations). (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Using coal inside California for electric power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, J. B.

1978-01-01

In a detailed analysis performed at Southern California Edison on a wide variety of technologies, the direct combustion of coal and medium BTU gas from coal were ranked just below nuclear power for future nonpetroleum based electric power generation. As a result, engineering studies were performed for demonstration projects for the direct combustion of coal and medium BTU gas from coal. Graphs are presented for power demand, and power cost. Direct coal combustion and coal gasification processes are presented.

Fourier transform power spectrum is a potential measure of tissue alignment in standard MRI: A multiple sclerosis study.

PubMed

Sharma, Shrushrita; Zhang, Yunyan

2017-01-01

Loss of tissue coherency in brain white matter is found in many neurological diseases such as multiple sclerosis (MS). While several approaches have been proposed to evaluate white matter coherency including fractional anisotropy and fiber tracking in diffusion-weighted imaging, few are available for standard magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Here we present an image post-processing method for this purpose based on Fourier transform (FT) power spectrum. T2-weighted images were collected from 19 patients (10 relapsing-remitting and 9 secondary progressive MS) and 19 age- and gender-matched controls. Image processing steps included: computation, normalization, and thresholding of FT power spectrum; determination of tissue alignment profile and dominant alignment direction; and calculation of alignment complexity using a new measure named angular entropy. To test the validity of this method, we used a highly organized brain white matter structure, corpus callosum. Six regions of interest were examined from the left, central and right aspects of both genu and splenium. We found that the dominant orientation of each ROI derived from our method was significantly correlated with the predicted directions based on anatomy. There was greater angular entropy in patients than controls, and a trend to be greater in secondary progressive MS patients. These findings suggest that it is possible to detect tissue alignment and anisotropy using traditional MRI, which are routinely acquired in clinical practice. Analysis of FT power spectrum may become a new approach for advancing the evaluation and management of patients with MS and similar disorders. Further confirmation is warranted.

When Black Holes Collide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, John

2010-01-01

Among the fascinating phenomena predicted by General Relativity, Einstein's theory of gravity, black holes and gravitational waves, are particularly important in astronomy. Though once viewed as a mathematical oddity, black holes are now recognized as the central engines of many of astronomy's most energetic cataclysms. Gravitational waves, though weakly interacting with ordinary matter, may be observed with new gravitational wave telescopes, opening a new window to the universe. These observations promise a direct view of the strong gravitational dynamics involving dense, often dark objects, such as black holes. The most powerful of these events may be merger of two colliding black holes. Though dark, these mergers may briefly release more energy that all the stars in the visible universe, in gravitational waves. General relativity makes precise predictions for the gravitational-wave signatures of these events, predictions which we can now calculate with the aid of supercomputer simulations. These results provide a foundation for interpreting expect observations in the emerging field of gravitational wave astronomy.

Kantian fractionalization predicts the conflict propensity of the international system

PubMed Central

Cranmer, Skyler J.; Menninga, Elizabeth J.; Mucha, Peter J.

2015-01-01

Network science has spurred a reexamination of relational phenomena in political science, including the study of international conflict. We introduce a new direction to the study of conflict by showing that the multiplex fractionalization of the international system along three key dimensions is a powerful predictor of the propensity for violent interstate conflict. Even after controlling for well-established conflict indicators, our new measure contributes more to model fit for interstate conflict than all of the previously established measures combined. Moreover, joint democracy plays little, if any, role in predicting system stability, thus challenging perhaps the major empirical finding of the international relations literature. Lastly, the temporal variability of our measure with conflict is consistent with a causal relationship. Our results have real-world policy implications as changes in our fractionalization measure substantially aid the prediction of conflict up to 10 years into the future, allowing it to serve as an early warning sign of international instability. PMID:26338977

Inhomogeneous distribution of water droplets in cloud turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fouxon, Itzhak; Park, Yongnam; Harduf, Roei; Lee, Changhoon

2015-09-01

We consider sedimentation of small particles in the turbulent flow where fluid accelerations are much smaller than acceleration of gravity g . The particles are dragged by the flow by linear friction force. We demonstrate that the pair-correlation function of particles' concentration diverges with decreasing separation as a power law with negative exponent. This manifests fractal distribution of particles in space. We find that the exponent is proportional to ratio of integral of energy spectrum of turbulence times the wave number over g . The proportionality coefficient is a universal number independent of particle size. We derive the spectrum of Lyapunov exponents that describes the evolution of small patches of particles. It is demonstrated that particles separate dominantly in the horizontal plane. This provides a theory for the recently observed vertical columns formed by the particles. We confirm the predictions by direct numerical simulations of Navier-Stokes turbulence. The predictions include conditions that hold for water droplets in warm clouds thus providing a tool for the prediction of rain formation.

Structural kinematics based damage zone prediction in gradient structures using vibration database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talha, Mohammad; Ashokkumar, Chimpalthradi R.

2014-05-01

To explore the applications of functionally graded materials (FGMs) in dynamic structures, structural kinematics based health monitoring technique becomes an important problem. Depending upon the displacements in three dimensions, the health of the material to withstand dynamic loads is inferred in this paper, which is based on the net compressive and tensile displacements that each structural degree of freedom takes. These net displacements at each finite element node predicts damage zones of the FGM where the material is likely to fail due to a vibration response which is categorized according to loading condition. The damage zone prediction of a dynamically active FGMs plate have been accomplished using Reddy's higher-order theory. The constituent material properties are assumed to vary in the thickness direction according to the power-law behavior. The proposed C0 finite element model (FEM) is applied to get net tensile and compressive displacement distributions across the structures. A plate made of Aluminum/Ziconia is considered to illustrate the concept of structural kinematics-based health monitoring aspects of FGMs.

Evaluation of icing drag coefficient correlations applied to iced propeller performance prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Thomas L.; Shaw, R. J.; Korkan, K. D.

1987-01-01

Evaluation of three empirical icing drag coefficient correlations is accomplished through application to a set of propeller icing data. The various correlations represent the best means currently available for relating drag rise to various flight and atmospheric conditions for both fixed-wing and rotating airfoils, and the work presented here ilustrates and evaluates one such application of the latter case. The origins of each of the correlations are discussed, and their apparent capabilities and limitations are summarized. These correlations have been made to be an integral part of a computer code, ICEPERF, which has been designed to calculate iced propeller performance. Comparison with experimental propeller icing data shows generally good agreement, with the quality of the predicted results seen to be directly related to the radial icing extent of each case. The code's capability to properly predict thrust coefficient, power coefficient, and propeller efficiency is shown to be strongly dependent on the choice of correlation selected, as well as upon proper specificatioon of radial icing extent.

The effects of load on system and lower-body joint kinetics during jump squats.

PubMed

Moir, Gavin L; Gollie, Jared M; Davis, Shala E; Guers, John J; Witmer, Chad A

2012-11-01

To investigate the effects of different loads on system and lower-body kinetics during jump squats, 12 resistance-trained men performed jumps under different loading conditions: 0%, 12%, 27%, 42%, 56%, 71%, and 85% of 1-repetition maximum (1-RM). System power output was calculated as the product of the vertical component of the ground reaction force and the vertical velocity of the bar during its ascent. Joint power output was calculated during bar ascent for the hip, knee, and ankle joints, and was also summed across the joints. System power output and joint power at knee and ankle joints were maximized at 0% 1-RM (p < 0.001) and followed the linear trends (p < 0.001) caused by power output decreasing as the load increased. Power output at the hip was maximized at 42% 1-RM (p = 0.016) and followed a quadratic trend (p = 0.030). Summed joint power could be predicted from system power (p < 0.05), while system power could predict power at the knee and ankle joints under some of the loading conditions. Power at the hip could not be predicted from system power. System power during loaded jumps reflects the power at the knee and ankle, while power at the hip does not correspond to system power.

Wind farms production: Control and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Fouly, Tarek Hussein Mostafa

Wind energy resources, unlike dispatchable central station generation, produce power dependable on external irregular source and that is the incident wind speed which does not always blow when electricity is needed. This results in the variability, unpredictability, and uncertainty of wind resources. Therefore, the integration of wind facilities to utility electrical grid presents a major challenge to power system operator. Such integration has significant impact on the optimum power flow, transmission congestion, power quality issues, system stability, load dispatch, and economic analysis. Due to the irregular nature of wind power production, accurate prediction represents the major challenge to power system operators. Therefore, in this thesis two novel models are proposed for wind speed and wind power prediction. One proposed model is dedicated to short-term prediction (one-hour ahead) and the other involves medium term prediction (one-day ahead). The accuracy of the proposed models is revealed by comparing their results with the corresponding values of a reference prediction model referred to as the persistent model. Utility grid operation is not only impacted by the uncertainty of the future production of wind farms, but also by the variability of their current production and how the active and reactive power exchange with the grid is controlled. To address this particular task, a control technique for wind turbines, driven by doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs), is developed to regulate the terminal voltage by equally sharing the generated/absorbed reactive power between the rotor-side and the gridside converters. To highlight the impact of the new developed technique in reducing the power loss in the generator set, an economic analysis is carried out. Moreover, a new aggregated model for wind farms is proposed that accounts for the irregularity of the incident wind distribution throughout the farm layout. Specifically, this model includes the wake effect and the time delay of the incident wind speed of the different turbines on the farm, and to simulate the fluctuation in the generated power more accurately and more closer to real-time operation. Recently, wind farms with considerable output power ratings have been installed. Their integrating into the utility grid will substantially affect the electricity markets. This thesis investigates the possible impact of wind power variability, wind farm control strategy, wind energy penetration level, wind farm location, and wind power prediction accuracy on the total generation costs and close to real time electricity market prices. These issues are addressed by developing a single auction market model for determining the real-time electricity market prices.

Acoustic Characterization and Prediction of Representative, Small-Scale Rotary-Wing Unmanned Aircraft System Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zawodny, Nikolas S.; Boyd, D. Douglas, Jr.; Burley, Casey L.

2016-01-01

In this study, hover performance and acoustic measurements are taken on two different isolated rotors representative of small-scale rotary-wing unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) for a range of rotation rates. Each rotor system consists of two fixed-pitch blades powered by a brushless motor. For nearly the same thrust condition, significant differences in overall sound pressure level (OASPL), up to 8 dB, and directivity were observed between the two rotor systems. Differences are shown to be in part attributed to different rotor tip speeds, along with increased broadband and motor noise levels. In addition to acoustic measurements, aeroacoustic predictions were implemented in order to better understand the noise content of the rotor systems. Numerical aerodynamic predictions were computed using the unsteady Reynoldsaveraged Navier Stokes code OVERFLOW2 on one of the isolated rotors, while analytical predictions were computed using the Propeller Analysis System of the Aircraft NOise Prediction Program (ANOPP-PAS) on the two rotor configurations. Preliminary semi-empirical frequency domain broadband noise predictions were also carried out based on airfoil self-noise theory in a rotational reference frame. The prediction techniques further supported trends identified in the experimental data analysis. The brushless motors were observed to be important noise contributors and warrant further investigation. It is believed that UAS acoustic prediction capabilities must consider both rotor and motor components as part of a combined noise-generating system.

Elastic anisotropy of core samples from the Taiwan Chelungpu Fault Drilling Project (TCDP): direct 3-D measurements and weak anisotropy approximations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louis, Laurent; David, Christian; Špaček, Petr; Wong, Teng-Fong; Fortin, Jérôme; Song, Sheng Rong

2012-01-01

The study of seismic anisotropy has become a powerful tool to decipher rock physics attributes in reservoirs or in complex tectonic settings. We compare direct 3-D measurements of P-wave velocity in 132 different directions on spherical rock samples to the prediction of the approximate model proposed by Louis et al. based on a tensorial approach. The data set includes measurements on dry spheres under confining pressure ranging from 5 to 200 MPa for three sandstones retrieved at a depth of 850, 1365 and 1394 metres in TCDP hole A (Taiwan Chelungpu Fault Drilling Project). As long as the P-wave velocity anisotropy is weak, we show that the predictions of the approximate model are in good agreement with the measurements. As the tensorial method is designed to work with cylindrical samples cored in three orthogonal directions, a significant gain both in the number of measurements involved and in sample preparation is achieved compared to measurements on spheres. We analysed the pressure dependence of the velocity field and show that as the confining pressure is raised the velocity increases, the anisotropy decreases but remains significant even at high pressure, and the shape of the ellipsoid representing the velocity (or elastic) fabric evolves from elongated to planar. These observations can be accounted for by considering the existence of both isotropic and anisotropic crack distributions and their evolution with applied pressure.

Replacement of SSE (Release 6) with NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project GIS-enabled Web Data Portal:

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-03-15

... effort has been developed under the Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project funded largely by NASA Earth Applied Sciences ... to NASA's satellite and modeling analysis for Renewable Energy, Sustainable Buildings and Agroclimatology applications.  A new POWER ...

POWER/SSE

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-06-15

... The Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project was initiated to improve upon the current SSE ... continue to be focussed on the solar and wind Renewable Energy industry. New data sets will target Sustainable Buildings ... The Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project was initiated to improve upon the current SSE ...

Design and experimental investigation of an oxy-fuel combustion system for magnetohydrodynamic power extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, Manuel Johannes

A general consensus in the scientific and research community is the need to restrict carbon emissions in energy systems. Therefore, extensive research efforts are underway to develop the next generation of energy systems. In the field of power generation, researchers are actively investigating novel methods to produce electricity in a cleaner, efficient form. Recently, Oxy-Combustion for magnetohydrodynamic power extraction has generated significant interest, since the idea was proposed as a method for clean power generation in coal and natural gas power plants. Oxy-combustion technologies have been proposed to provide high enthalpy, electrically conductive flows for direct conversion of electricity. Direct power extraction via magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) can occur as a consequence of the motion of "seeded" combustion products in the presence of magnetic fields. However, oxy-combustion technologies for MHD power extraction has not been demonstrated in the available literature. Furthermore, there are still fundamental unexplored questions remaining, associated with this technology, for MHD power extraction. In this present study, previous magnetohydrodynamic combustion technologies and technical issues in this field were assessed to develop a new combustion system for electrically conductive flows. The research aims were to fully understand the current-state-of-the-art of open-cycle magnetohydrodynamic technologies and present new future directions and concepts. The design criteria, methodology, and technical specifications of an advanced cooled oxy-combustion technology are presented in this dissertation. The design was based on a combined analytical, empirical, and numerical approach. Analytical one-dimensional (1D) design tools initiated design construction. Design variants were analyzed and vetted against performance criteria through the application of computational fluid dynamics modeling. CFD-generated flow fields permitted insightful visualization of the design concepts. Therefore, numerical computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models were developed to design and optimize the combustion flow fields of oxy-fuel combustion systems. These models were analyzed to understand the boundary layer and heat transfer profile and qualitative behaviors in the product designs. Advanced materials for high-temperature applications were assessed for their possible implementation in the product design. A trade-off analysis indicated that this scheme may incur elevated product cost and a difficulty in manufacturing. Active cooling strategies were considered for product development. A rocket-based cooling scheme, regenerative cooling, was implemented to provide active cooling. In the hot gas path (HGP) cooling design, CFD models were developed to predict the variation of heat removal along the oxy-combustion wall for various operating conditions. The oxy-combustion technology was manufactured using electrical discharge machining (EDM). The product development lifecycle in this dissertation encompassed preliminary design, detailed design, and demonstration and validation of the product. Towards the final stages of the product development, Fuel-rich oxy combustion experiments were carried out to demonstrate and observe flame characteristics from the designed technology and to predict heat transfer loads. The demonstration findings of oxy-combustion flames are presented in this work to contribute the developing field of MHD direct power extraction, which lacks oxy-combustion design data and qualitative combustion datasets. The findings show that this oxy-combustion concept is capable of providing a high-enthalpy MHD environment for seeding, in order to render the flow to be conductive. Based on previous findings, temperatures in the range of 2800-3000 K may enable magnetohydrodynamic power extraction. The combustor hardware design was developed to contribute to engineered systems rated less than 100 kW for demonstration. The product hardware was designed to produce gas velocities of 2000 m/s gas and temperatures within the following range of 2800-3000 K. In the injection system, the momentum flux ratio (MFR) was estimated to be 16. The heat loss fraction in this oxy-combustion system, based on CFD and analytical calculations, at optimal operating conditions, was estimated to be less than 10 percent. Furthermore, the heat transfer design removed approximately 7 MW/m2. The experimental performance of oxy-combustion systems demonstrates promise for advanced power generation applications.

Intelligent Prediction of Fan Rotation Stall in Power Plants Based on Pressure Sensor Data Measured In-Situ

PubMed Central

Xu, Xiaogang; Wang, Songling; Liu, Jinlian; Liu, Xinyu

2014-01-01

Blower and exhaust fans consume over 30% of electricity in a thermal power plant, and faults of these fans due to rotation stalls are one of the most frequent reasons for power plant outage failures. To accurately predict the occurrence of fan rotation stalls, we propose a support vector regression machine (SVRM) model that predicts the fan internal pressures during operation, leaving ample time for rotation stall detection. We train the SVRM model using experimental data samples, and perform pressure data prediction using the trained SVRM model. To prove the feasibility of using the SVRM model for rotation stall prediction, we further process the predicted pressure data via wavelet-transform-based stall detection. By comparison of the detection results from the predicted and measured pressure data, we demonstrate that the SVRM model can accurately predict the fan pressure and guarantee reliable stall detection with a time advance of up to 0.0625 s. This superior pressure data prediction capability leaves significant time for effective control and prevention of fan rotation stall faults. This model has great potential for use in intelligent fan systems with stall prevention capability, which will ensure safe operation and improve the energy efficiency of power plants. PMID:24854057

Revealing Exo-Zody and Exo-Planets from Solar System Dust Measurements: ALADDIN-2 for the Solar Power Sail Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yano, Hajime; Hirai, Takayuki

2016-07-01

The dust structure of our Solar System provides a benchmark information of dust disks of other exo-planetary systems in general, just like the Sun as the closest main sequence G-star that we can study with the most details. Heliocentric dust distributions and gravitational and orbital interactions with planets such as mean motion resonances (MMRs) of dust flux of our Solar System are what we can transfer the knowledge of our Solar System dust apply to infer anisotropic exo-zodiacal brightness, or spatial structures within a exo-planetary dust disks with information about potentially embedded planets inside. In the coming era of disk resolved observations by ALMA, TMT and other new telescopes, we will be able to apply what we find in the Solar System to the rest of planetary systems. In 2010-11, the IKAROS solar sail spacecraft carried the ALADDIN large area dust detector array to study large meteoroids between the Earth and Venus orbits. Yano et al. directly detected both the Earth's and Venus' MMRs dust structures, being consistent with numerical simulations that predict the existence of such local enhancements of dust distribution around these terrestrial planets, as well as Neptune. JAXA's Solar Power Sail mission plans to carry even larger dust detector inherited the technology onboard IKAROS, namely ALADDIN-2 in order to search for such MMRs in the Mars and Jupiter orbits, as predicted by Kuchner et al.(2000), in addition to make a continuous measurement of large dust flux from 1.0 to 5.2 AU crossing the main asteroid belt up to Jupiter Trojan region. It is also noted that recent reanalysis of the Pioneer 10 and 11 photo polarimeter data suggests a small enhancement of the brightness towards the anti-solar direction near Jupiter the largest planet of our Solar System, implying a possible existence of a dust belt related to the planet. The spatial density of dust particles directly measured by the ALADDIN-2 will provide a more conclusive and direct proof due to the insusceptibility to the background brightness from the stars and the galaxy.

The impact of response measurement error on the analysis of designed experiments

DOE PAGES

Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela; Hamada, Michael Scott; Burr, Thomas Lee

2016-11-01

This study considers the analysis of designed experiments when there is measurement error in the true response or so-called response measurement error. We consider both additive and multiplicative response measurement errors. Through a simulation study, we investigate the impact of ignoring the response measurement error in the analysis, that is, by using a standard analysis based on t-tests. In addition, we examine the role of repeat measurements in improving the quality of estimation and prediction in the presence of response measurement error. We also study a Bayesian approach that accounts for the response measurement error directly through the specification ofmore » the model, and allows including additional information about variability in the analysis. We consider the impact on power, prediction, and optimization. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.« less

The impact of response measurement error on the analysis of designed experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela; Hamada, Michael Scott; Burr, Thomas Lee

This study considers the analysis of designed experiments when there is measurement error in the true response or so-called response measurement error. We consider both additive and multiplicative response measurement errors. Through a simulation study, we investigate the impact of ignoring the response measurement error in the analysis, that is, by using a standard analysis based on t-tests. In addition, we examine the role of repeat measurements in improving the quality of estimation and prediction in the presence of response measurement error. We also study a Bayesian approach that accounts for the response measurement error directly through the specification ofmore » the model, and allows including additional information about variability in the analysis. We consider the impact on power, prediction, and optimization. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.« less

From molecular chaperones to membrane motors: through the lens of a mass spectrometrist.

PubMed

Robinson, Carol V

2017-02-08

Twenty-five years ago, we obtained our first mass spectra of molecular chaperones in complex with protein ligands and entered a new field of gas-phase structural biology. It is perhaps now time to pause and reflect, and to ask how many of our initial structure predictions and models derived from mass spectrometry (MS) datasets were correct. With recent advances in structure determination, many of the most challenging complexes that we studied over the years have become tractable by other structural biology approaches enabling such comparisons to be made. Moreover, in the light of powerful new electron microscopy methods, what role is there now for MS? In considering these questions, I will give my personal view on progress and problems as well as my predictions for future directions. © 2017 The Author(s).

Effect of the equivalent refractive index on intraocular lens power prediction with ray tracing after myopic laser in situ keratomileusis.

PubMed

Canovas, Carmen; van der Mooren, Marrie; Rosén, Robert; Piers, Patricia A; Wang, Li; Koch, Douglas D; Artal, Pablo

2015-05-01

To determine the impact of the equivalent refractive index (ERI) on intraocular lens (IOL) power prediction for eyes with previous myopic laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) using custom ray tracing. AMO B.V., Groningen, the Netherlands, and the Department of Ophthalmology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA. Retrospective data analysis. The ERI was calculated individually from the post-LASIK total corneal power. Two methods to account for the posterior corneal surface were tested; that is, calculation from pre-LASIK data or from post-LASIK data only. Four IOL power predictions were generated using a computer-based ray-tracing technique, including individual ERI results from both calculation methods, a mean ERI over the whole population, and the ERI for normal patients. For each patient, IOL power results calculated from the four predictions as well as those obtained with the Haigis-L were compared with the optimum IOL power calculated after cataract surgery. The study evaluated 25 patients. The mean and range of ERI values determined using post-LASIK data were similar to those determined from pre-LASIK data. Introducing individual or an average ERI in the ray-tracing IOL power calculation procedure resulted in mean IOL power errors that were not significantly different from zero. The ray-tracing procedure that includes an average ERI gave a greater percentage of eyes with an IOL power prediction error within ±0.5 diopter than the Haigis-L (84% versus 52%). For IOL power determination in post-LASIK patients, custom ray tracing including a modified ERI was an accurate procedure that exceeded the current standards for normal eyes. Copyright © 2015 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Applying dynamic priority scheduling scheme to static systems of pinwheel task model in power-aware scheduling.

PubMed

Seol, Ye-In; Kim, Young-Kuk

2014-01-01

Power-aware scheduling reduces CPU energy consumption in hard real-time systems through dynamic voltage scaling (DVS). In this paper, we deal with pinwheel task model which is known as static and predictable task model and could be applied to various embedded or ubiquitous systems. In pinwheel task model, each task's priority is static and its execution sequence could be predetermined. There have been many static approaches to power-aware scheduling in pinwheel task model. But, in this paper, we will show that the dynamic priority scheduling results in power-aware scheduling could be applied to pinwheel task model. This method is more effective than adopting the previous static priority scheduling methods in saving energy consumption and, for the system being still static, it is more tractable and applicable to small sized embedded or ubiquitous computing. Also, we introduce a novel power-aware scheduling algorithm which exploits all slacks under preemptive earliest-deadline first scheduling which is optimal in uniprocessor system. The dynamic priority method presented in this paper could be applied directly to static systems of pinwheel task model. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm with the algorithmic complexity of O(n) reduces the energy consumption by 10-80% over the existing algorithms.

Applying Dynamic Priority Scheduling Scheme to Static Systems of Pinwheel Task Model in Power-Aware Scheduling

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Power-aware scheduling reduces CPU energy consumption in hard real-time systems through dynamic voltage scaling (DVS). In this paper, we deal with pinwheel task model which is known as static and predictable task model and could be applied to various embedded or ubiquitous systems. In pinwheel task model, each task's priority is static and its execution sequence could be predetermined. There have been many static approaches to power-aware scheduling in pinwheel task model. But, in this paper, we will show that the dynamic priority scheduling results in power-aware scheduling could be applied to pinwheel task model. This method is more effective than adopting the previous static priority scheduling methods in saving energy consumption and, for the system being still static, it is more tractable and applicable to small sized embedded or ubiquitous computing. Also, we introduce a novel power-aware scheduling algorithm which exploits all slacks under preemptive earliest-deadline first scheduling which is optimal in uniprocessor system. The dynamic priority method presented in this paper could be applied directly to static systems of pinwheel task model. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm with the algorithmic complexity of O(n) reduces the energy consumption by 10–80% over the existing algorithms. PMID:25121126

Forecasting Electric Power Generation of Photovoltaic Power System for Energy Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudo, Mitsuru; Takeuchi, Akira; Nozaki, Yousuke; Endo, Hisahito; Sumita, Jiro

Recently, there has been an increase in concern about the global environment. Interest is growing in developing an energy network by which new energy systems such as photovoltaic and fuel cells generate power locally and electric power and heat are controlled with a communications network. We developed the power generation forecast method for photovoltaic power systems in an energy network. The method makes use of weather information and regression analysis. We carried out forecasting power output of the photovoltaic power system installed in Expo 2005, Aichi Japan. As a result of comparing measurements with a prediction values, the average prediction error per day was about 26% of the measured power.

Direct heuristic dynamic programming for damping oscillations in a large power system.

PubMed

Lu, Chao; Si, Jennie; Xie, Xiaorong

2008-08-01

This paper applies a neural-network-based approximate dynamic programming method, namely, the direct heuristic dynamic programming (direct HDP), to a large power system stability control problem. The direct HDP is a learning- and approximation-based approach to addressing nonlinear coordinated control under uncertainty. One of the major design parameters, the controller learning objective function, is formulated to directly account for network-wide low-frequency oscillation with the presence of nonlinearity, uncertainty, and coupling effect among system components. Results include a novel learning control structure based on the direct HDP with applications to two power system problems. The first case involves static var compensator supplementary damping control, which is used to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the learning control performance. The second case aims at addressing a difficult complex system challenge by providing a new solution to a large interconnected power network oscillation damping control problem that frequently occurs in the China Southern Power Grid.

Large-Eddy Simulation of Wind-Plant Aerodynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Churchfield, M. J.; Lee, S.; Moriarty, P. J.

In this work, we present results of a large-eddy simulation of the 48 multi-megawatt turbines composing the Lillgrund wind plant. Turbulent inflow wind is created by performing an atmospheric boundary layer precursor simulation, and turbines are modeled using a rotating, variable-speed actuator line representation. The motivation for this work is that few others have done large-eddy simulations of wind plants with a substantial number of turbines, and the methods for carrying out the simulations are varied. We wish to draw upon the strengths of the existing simulations and our growing atmospheric large-eddy simulation capability to create a sound methodology formore » performing this type of simulation. We used the OpenFOAM CFD toolbox to create our solver. The simulated time-averaged power production of the turbines in the plant agrees well with field observations, except with the sixth turbine and beyond in each wind-aligned. The power produced by each of those turbines is overpredicted by 25-40%. A direct comparison between simulated and field data is difficult because we simulate one wind direction with a speed and turbulence intensity characteristic of Lillgrund, but the field observations were taken over a year of varying conditions. The simulation shows the significant 60-70% decrease in the performance of the turbines behind the front row in this plant that has a spacing of 4.3 rotor diameters in this direction. The overall plant efficiency is well predicted. This work shows the importance of using local grid refinement to simultaneously capture the meter-scale details of the turbine wake and the kilometer-scale turbulent atmospheric structures. Although this work illustrates the power of large-eddy simulation in producing a time-accurate solution, it required about one million processor-hours, showing the significant cost of large-eddy simulation.« less

Hypothesis regarding the transformation of the intended direction of movement during the production of graphic trajectories: a study of drawing movements in 8- to 12-year-old children.

PubMed

Pellizzer, Giuseppe; Zesiger, Pascal

2009-03-01

Children from 8 to 12 years of age drew figure-eights and ellipses at a self-chosen tempo on a digitizing tablet. Global aspects (perimeter and average speed) and local aspects (relation between instantaneous speed and curvature) of performance were analyzed across age groups and types of figures. We tested the predictions of the transformation model, which is based on the hypothesis that changing the intended direction of movement is a time-consuming process that affects the evolution in time of the movement trajectory, and compared how well it fitted the data relative to the power law. We found that the relation between speed and curvature was typically better described by the transformation model than by the power law. However, the power law provided a better description when ellipses were drawn at a fast speed. The analyses of the parameters of the transformation model indicate that processing speed increased linearly with age. In addition, the results suggest that the effects of the spring-like properties of the arm were noticeable when ellipses were drawn at a fast speed. This study indicates that both biomechanical properties and central processes have an effect on the kinematics of continuous movements and particularly on the relation between speed and curvature. However, their relative importance varies with the type of figure and average movement speed. In conclusion, the results support the hypothesis that a time-consuming process of transformation of the intended direction of movement is operating during the production of continuous movements and that this process increases in speed between 8 to 12 years of age.

Using Reanalysis Data for the Prediction of Seasonal Wind Turbine Power Losses Due to Icing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burtch, D.; Mullendore, G. L.; Delene, D. J.; Storm, B.

2013-12-01

The Northern Plains region of the United States is home to a significant amount of potential wind energy. However, in winter months capturing this potential power is severely impacted by the meteorological conditions, in the form of icing. Predicting the expected loss in power production due to icing is a valuable parameter that can be used in wind turbine operations, determination of wind turbine site locations and long-term energy estimates which are used for financing purposes. Currently, losses due to icing must be estimated when developing predictions for turbine feasibility and financing studies, while icing maps, a tool commonly used in Europe, are lacking in the United States. This study uses the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset in conjunction with turbine production data to investigate various methods of predicting seasonal losses (October-March) due to icing at two wind turbine sites located 121 km apart in North Dakota. The prediction of icing losses is based on temperature and relative humidity thresholds and is accomplished using three methods. For each of the three methods, the required atmospheric variables are determined in one of two ways: using industry-specific software to correlate anemometer data in conjunction with the MERRA dataset and using only the MERRA dataset for all variables. For each season, a percentage of the total expected generated power lost due to icing is determined and compared to observed losses from the production data. An optimization is performed in order to determine the relative humidity threshold that minimizes the difference between the predicted and observed values. Eight seasons of data are used to determine an optimal relative humidity threshold, and a further three seasons of data are used to test this threshold. Preliminary results have shown that the optimized relative humidity threshold for the northern turbine is higher than the southern turbine for all methods. For the three test seasons, the optimized thresholds tend to under-predict the icing losses. However, the threshold determined using boundary layer similarity theory most closely predicts the power losses due to icing versus the other methods. For the northern turbine, the average predicted power loss over the three seasons is 4.65 % while the observed power loss is 6.22 % (average difference of 1.57 %). For the southern turbine, the average predicted power loss and observed power loss over the same time period are 4.43 % and 6.16 %, respectively (average difference of 1.73 %). The three-year average, however, does not clearly capture the variability that exists season-to-season. On examination of each of the test seasons individually, the optimized relative humidity threshold methodology performs better than fixed power loss estimates commonly used in the wind energy industry.

Application of empirical and linear methods to VSTOL powered-lift aerodynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Margason, Richard; Kuhn, Richard

1988-01-01

Available prediction methods applied to problems of aero/propulsion interactions for short takeoff and vertical landing (STOVL) aircraft are critically reviewed and an assessment of their strengths and weaknesses provided. The first two problems deal with aerodynamic performance effects during hover: (1) out-of-ground effect, and (2) in-ground effect. The first can be evaluated for some multijet cases; however, the second problem is very difficult to evaluate for multijets. The ground-environment effects due to wall jets and fountain flows directly affect hover performance. In a related problem: (3) hot-gas ingestion affects the engine operation. Both of these problems as well as jet noise affect the ability of people to work near the aircraft and the ability of the aircraft to operate near the ground. Additional problems are: (4) the power-augmented lift due to jet-flap effects (both in- and out-of-ground effects), and (5) the direct jet-lift effects during short takeoff and landing (STOL) operations. The final problem: (6) is the aerodynamic/propulsion interactions in transition between hover and wing-borne flight. Areas where modern CFD methods can provide improvements to current computational capabilities are identified.

Dynamic modelling and simulation of CSP plant based on supercritical carbon dioxide closed Brayton cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakkarainen, Elina; Sihvonen, Teemu; Lappalainen, Jari

2017-06-01

Supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) has recently gained a lot of interest as a working fluid in different power generation applications. For concentrated solar power (CSP) applications, sCO2 provides especially interesting option if it could be used both as the heat transfer fluid (HTF) in the solar field and as the working fluid in the power conversion unit. This work presents development of a dynamic model of CSP plant concept, in which sCO2 is used for extracting the solar heat in Linear Fresnel collector field, and directly applied as the working fluid in the recuperative Brayton cycle; these both in a single flow loop. We consider the dynamic model is capable to predict the system behavior in typical operational transients in a physically plausible way. The novel concept was tested through simulation cases under different weather conditions. The results suggest that the concept can be successfully controlled and operated in the supercritical region to generate electric power during the daytime, and perform start-up and shut down procedures in order to stay overnight in sub-critical conditions. Besides the normal daily operation, the control system was demonstrated to manage disturbances due to sudden irradiance changes.

Nonlinear and linear wave equations for propagation in media with frequency power law losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szabo, Thomas L.

2003-10-01

The Burgers, KZK, and Westervelt wave equations used for simulating wave propagation in nonlinear media are based on absorption that has a quadratic dependence on frequency. Unfortunately, most lossy media, such as tissue, follow a more general frequency power law. The authors first research involved measurements of loss and dispersion associated with a modification to Blackstock's solution to the linear thermoviscous wave equation [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 41, 1312 (1967)]. A second paper by Blackstock [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 77, 2050 (1985)] showed the loss term in the Burgers equation for plane waves could be modified for other known instances of loss. The authors' work eventually led to comprehensive time-domain convolutional operators that accounted for both dispersion and general frequency power law absorption [Szabo, J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 96, 491 (1994)]. Versions of appropriate loss terms were developed to extend the standard three nonlinear wave equations to these more general losses. Extensive experimental data has verified the predicted phase velocity dispersion for different power exponents for the linear case. Other groups are now working on methods suitable for solving wave equations numerically for these types of loss directly in the time domain for both linear and nonlinear media.

The Stardust solar array

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gasner, S.; Sharmit, K.; Stella, P. M.; Craig, C.; Mumaw, S.

2003-01-01

The Stardust program, part of NASA's Discovery Missions was launched on February 7. 1999. It's seven-year mission is to gather interstellar dust and material from the comet Wild-2 and return the material to earth in January 2006. In order to accomplish this mission, the satellite will orbit the sun a total of three times, traversing distances from a little under 1 AU to 2.7 AU. On April 18 2002 , the Stardust spacecraft reached its furthest distance and broke the record for being the farthest spacecraft from the sun powered by solar energy, The Stardust solar panels were built with standard off the shelf 10 Ohm-cm high efficiency silicon solar cells. These solar cells are relatively inexpensive and have shown excellent characteristics under LILT conditions. In order to accommodate the varying temperature and intensity conditions on the electrical power subsystem, an electronic switch box was designed to reconfigure the string length and number of swings depending on the mission phase. This box allowed the use of an inexpensive direct energy transfer system for the electrical power system architecture. The solar panels and electrical power system have met all requirements. Telemetry data from the solar panels at 2.7 AU are in excellent agreement with flight predictions.

Improved accuracy of intraocular lens power calculation with the Zeiss IOLMaster.

PubMed

Olsen, Thomas

2007-02-01

This study aimed to demonstrate how the level of accuracy in intraocular lens (IOL) power calculation can be improved with optical biometry using partial optical coherence interferometry (PCI) (Zeiss IOLMaster) and current anterior chamber depth (ACD) prediction algorithms. Intraocular lens power in 461 consecutive cataract operations was calculated using both PCI and ultrasound and the accuracy of the results of each technique were compared. To illustrate the importance of ACD prediction per se, predictions were calculated using both a recently published 5-variable method and the Haigis 2-variable method and the results compared. All calculations were optimized in retrospect to account for systematic errors, including IOL constants and other off-set errors. The average absolute IOL prediction error (observed minus expected refraction) was 0.65 dioptres with ultrasound and 0.43 D with PCI using the 5-variable ACD prediction method (p < 0.00001). The number of predictions within +/- 0.5 D, +/- 1.0 D and +/- 2.0 D of the expected outcome was 62.5%, 92.4% and 99.9% with PCI, compared with 45.5%, 77.3% and 98.4% with ultrasound, respectively (p < 0.00001). The 2-variable ACD method resulted in an average error in PCI predictions of 0.46 D, which was significantly higher than the error in the 5-variable method (p < 0.001). The accuracy of IOL power calculation can be significantly improved using calibrated axial length readings obtained with PCI and modern IOL power calculation formulas incorporating the latest generation ACD prediction algorithms.

Modeling late rectal toxicities based on a parameterized representation of the 3D dose distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buettner, Florian; Gulliford, Sarah L.; Webb, Steve; Partridge, Mike

2011-04-01

Many models exist for predicting toxicities based on dose-volume histograms (DVHs) or dose-surface histograms (DSHs). This approach has several drawbacks as firstly the reduction of the dose distribution to a histogram results in the loss of spatial information and secondly the bins of the histograms are highly correlated with each other. Furthermore, some of the complex nonlinear models proposed in the past lack a direct physical interpretation and the ability to predict probabilities rather than binary outcomes. We propose a parameterized representation of the 3D distribution of the dose to the rectal wall which explicitly includes geometrical information in the form of the eccentricity of the dose distribution as well as its lateral and longitudinal extent. We use a nonlinear kernel-based probabilistic model to predict late rectal toxicity based on the parameterized dose distribution and assessed its predictive power using data from the MRC RT01 trial (ISCTRN 47772397). The endpoints under consideration were rectal bleeding, loose stools, and a global toxicity score. We extract simple rules identifying 3D dose patterns related to a specifically low risk of complication. Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models based on parameterized representations of geometrical and volumetric measures resulted in areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.66, 0.63 and 0.67 for predicting rectal bleeding, loose stools and global toxicity, respectively. In comparison, NTCP models based on standard DVHs performed worse and resulted in AUCs of 0.59 for all three endpoints. In conclusion, we have presented low-dimensional, interpretable and nonlinear NTCP models based on the parameterized representation of the dose to the rectal wall. These models had a higher predictive power than models based on standard DVHs and their low dimensionality allowed for the identification of 3D dose patterns related to a low risk of complication.

Overview of Heat Addition and Efficiency Predictions for an Advanced Stirling Convertor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Scott D.; Reid, Terry V.; Schifer, Nicholas A.; Briggs, Maxwell H.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), developed by Sunpower Inc. and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). The ASCs convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. As part of ground testing of these ASCs, different operating conditions are used to simulate expected mission conditions. These conditions require achieving a particular operating frequency, hot end and cold end temperatures, and specified electrical power output for a given net heat input. Microporous bulk insulation is used in the ground support test hardware to minimize the loss of thermal energy from the electric heat source to the environment. The insulation package is characterized before operation to predict how much heat will be absorbed by the convertor and how much will be lost to the environment during operation. In an effort to validate these predictions, numerous tasks have been performed, which provided a more accurate value for net heat input into the ASCs. This test and modeling effort included: (a) making thermophysical property measurements of test setup materials to provide inputs to the numerical models, (b) acquiring additional test data that was collected during convertor tests to provide numerical models with temperature profiles of the test setup via thermocouple and infrared measurements, (c) using multidimensional numerical models (computational fluid dynamics code) to predict net heat input of an operating convertor, and (d) using validation test hardware to provide direct comparison of numerical results and validate the multidimensional numerical models used to predict convertor net heat input. This effort produced high fidelity ASC net heat input predictions, which were successfully validated using specially designed test hardware enabling measurement of heat transferred through a simulated Stirling cycle. The overall effort and results are discussed.

Predicting Key Agronomic Soil Properties with UV-Vis Fluorescence Measurements Combined with Vis-NIR-SWIR Reflectance Spectroscopy: A Farm-Scale Study in a Mediterranean Viticultural Agroecosystem.

PubMed

Vaudour, Emmanuelle; Cerovic, Zoran G; Ebengo, Dav M; Latouche, Gwendal

2018-04-10

For adequate crop and soil management, rapid and accurate techniques for monitoring soil properties are particularly important when a farmer starts up his activities and needs a diagnosis of his cultivated fields. This study aimed to evaluate the potential of fluorescence measured directly on 146 whole soil solid samples, for predicting key soil properties at the scale of a 6 ha Mediterranean wine estate with contrasting soils. UV-Vis fluorescence measurements were carried out in conjunction with reflectance measurements in the Vis-NIR-SWIR range. Combining PLSR predictions from Vis-NIR-SWIR reflectance spectra and from a set of fluorescence signals enabled us to improve the power of prediction of a number of key agronomic soil properties including SOC, N tot , CaCO₃, iron, fine particle-sizes (clay, fine silt, fine sand), CEC, pH and exchangeable Ca 2+ with cross-validation RPD ≥ 2 and R² ≥ 0.75, while exchangeable K⁺, Na⁺, Mg 2+ , coarse silt and coarse sand contents were fairly predicted (1.42 ≤ RPD < 2 and 0.54 ≤ R² < 0.75). Predictions of SOC, N tot , CaCO₃, iron contents, and pH were still good (RPD ≥ 1.8, R² ≥ 0.68) when using a single fluorescence signal or index such as SFR_R or FERARI, highlighting the unexpected importance of red excitations and indices derived from plant studies. The predictive ability of single fluorescence indices or original signals was very significant for topsoil: this is very important for a farmer who wishes to update information on soil nutrient for the purpose of fertility diagnosis and particularly nitrogen fertilization. These results open encouraging perspectives for using miniaturized fluorescence devices enabling red excitation coupled with red or far-red fluorescence emissions directly in the field.

Predicting Key Agronomic Soil Properties with UV-Vis Fluorescence Measurements Combined with Vis-NIR-SWIR Reflectance Spectroscopy: A Farm-Scale Study in a Mediterranean Viticultural Agroecosystem

PubMed Central

Vaudour, Emmanuelle; Cerovic, Zoran G.; Ebengo, Dav M.; Latouche, Gwendal

2018-01-01

For adequate crop and soil management, rapid and accurate techniques for monitoring soil properties are particularly important when a farmer starts up his activities and needs a diagnosis of his cultivated fields. This study aimed to evaluate the potential of fluorescence measured directly on 146 whole soil solid samples, for predicting key soil properties at the scale of a 6 ha Mediterranean wine estate with contrasting soils. UV-Vis fluorescence measurements were carried out in conjunction with reflectance measurements in the Vis-NIR-SWIR range. Combining PLSR predictions from Vis-NIR-SWIR reflectance spectra and from a set of fluorescence signals enabled us to improve the power of prediction of a number of key agronomic soil properties including SOC, Ntot, CaCO3, iron, fine particle-sizes (clay, fine silt, fine sand), CEC, pH and exchangeable Ca2+ with cross-validation RPD ≥ 2 and R² ≥ 0.75, while exchangeable K+, Na+, Mg2+, coarse silt and coarse sand contents were fairly predicted (1.42 ≤ RPD < 2 and 0.54 ≤ R² < 0.75). Predictions of SOC, Ntot, CaCO3, iron contents, and pH were still good (RPD ≥ 1.8, R² ≥ 0.68) when using a single fluorescence signal or index such as SFR_R or FERARI, highlighting the unexpected importance of red excitations and indices derived from plant studies. The predictive ability of single fluorescence indices or original signals was very significant for topsoil: this is very important for a farmer who wishes to update information on soil nutrient for the purpose of fertility diagnosis and particularly nitrogen fertilization. These results open encouraging perspectives for using miniaturized fluorescence devices enabling red excitation coupled with red or far-red fluorescence emissions directly in the field. PMID:29642640

Another baryon miracle? Testing solutions to the `missing dwarfs' problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trujillo-Gomez, Sebastian; Schneider, Aurel; Papastergis, Emmanouil; Reed, Darren S.; Lake, George

2018-04-01

The dearth of dwarf galaxies in the local Universe is hard to reconcile with the large number of low-mass haloes expected within the concordance Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) paradigm. In this paper, we perform a systematic evaluation of the uncertainties affecting the measurement of dark matter halo abundance using galaxy kinematics. Using a large sample of dwarf galaxies with spatially resolved kinematics, we derive a correction to obtain the abundance of galaxies as a function of maximum circular velocity - a direct probe of halo mass - from the line-of-sight velocity function in the Local Volume. This method provides a direct means of comparing the predictions of theoretical models and simulations (including non-standard cosmologies and novel galaxy formation physics) to the observational constraints. The new `galactic Vmax' function is steeper than the line-of-sight velocity function but still shallower than the theoretical CDM expectation, implying that unaccounted baryonic physics may be necessary to reduce the predicted abundance of galaxies. Using the galactic Vmax function, we investigate the theoretical effects of feedback-powered outflows and photoevaporation of gas due to reionization. At the 3σ confidence level, we find that feedback and reionization are not effective enough to reconcile the disagreement. In the case of maximum baryonic effects, the theoretical prediction still deviates significantly from the observations for Vmax < 60 km s-1. CDM predicts at least 1.8 times more galaxies with Vmax = 50 km s-1 and 2.5 times more than observed at 30 km s-1. Recent hydrodynamic simulations seem to resolve the discrepancy but disagree with the properties of observed galaxies with spatially resolved kinematics. This abundance problem might point to the need to modify cosmological predictions at small scales.

Ecological and personal predictors of science achievement in an urban center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guidubaldi, John Michael

This study sought to examine selected personal and environmental factors that predict urban students' achievement test scores on the science subject area of the Ohio standardized test. Variables examined were in the general categories of teacher/classroom, student, and parent/home. It assumed that these clusters might add independent variance to a best predictor model, and that discovering relative strength of different predictors might lead to better selection of intervention strategies to improve student performance. This study was conducted in an urban school district and was comprised of teachers and students enrolled in ninth grade science in three of this district's high schools. Consenting teachers (9), students (196), and parents (196) received written surveys with questions designed to examine the predictive power of each variable cluster. Regression analyses were used to determine which factors best correlate with student scores and classroom science grades. Selected factors were then compiled into a best predictive model, predicting success on standardized science tests. Students t tests of gender and racial subgroups confirmed that there were racial differences in OPT scores, and both gender and racial differences in science grades. Additional examinations were therefore conducted for all 12 variables to determine whether gender and race had an impact on the strength of individual variable predictions and on the final best predictor model. Of the 15 original OPT and cluster variable hypotheses, eight showed significant positive relationships that occurred in the expected direction. However, when more broadly based end-of-the-year science class grade was used as a criterion, 13 of the 15 hypotheses showed significant relationships in the expected direction. With both criteria, significant gender and racial differences were observed in the strength of individual predictors and in the composition of best predictor models.

Using a Guided Machine Learning Ensemble Model to Predict Discharge Disposition following Meningioma Resection.

PubMed

Muhlestein, Whitney E; Akagi, Dallin S; Kallos, Justiss A; Morone, Peter J; Weaver, Kyle D; Thompson, Reid C; Chambless, Lola B

2018-04-01

Objective  Machine learning (ML) algorithms are powerful tools for predicting patient outcomes. This study pilots a novel approach to algorithm selection and model creation using prediction of discharge disposition following meningioma resection as a proof of concept. Materials and Methods  A diversity of ML algorithms were trained on a single-institution database of meningioma patients to predict discharge disposition. Algorithms were ranked by predictive power and top performers were combined to create an ensemble model. The final ensemble was internally validated on never-before-seen data to demonstrate generalizability. The predictive power of the ensemble was compared with a logistic regression. Further analyses were performed to identify how important variables impact the ensemble. Results  Our ensemble model predicted disposition significantly better than a logistic regression (area under the curve of 0.78 and 0.71, respectively, p  = 0.01). Tumor size, presentation at the emergency department, body mass index, convexity location, and preoperative motor deficit most strongly influence the model, though the independent impact of individual variables is nuanced. Conclusion  Using a novel ML technique, we built a guided ML ensemble model that predicts discharge destination following meningioma resection with greater predictive power than a logistic regression, and that provides greater clinical insight than a univariate analysis. These techniques can be extended to predict many other patient outcomes of interest.

Hybrid robust predictive optimization method of power system dispatch

DOEpatents

Chandra, Ramu Sharat [Niskayuna, NY; Liu, Yan [Ballston Lake, NY; Bose, Sumit [Niskayuna, NY; de Bedout, Juan Manuel [West Glenville, NY

2011-08-02

A method of power system dispatch control solves power system dispatch problems by integrating a larger variety of generation, load and storage assets, including without limitation, combined heat and power (CHP) units, renewable generation with forecasting, controllable loads, electric, thermal and water energy storage. The method employs a predictive algorithm to dynamically schedule different assets in order to achieve global optimization and maintain the system normal operation.

Power capability evaluation for lithium iron phosphate batteries based on multi-parameter constraints estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yujie; Pan, Rui; Liu, Chang; Chen, Zonghai; Ling, Qiang

2018-01-01

The battery power capability is intimately correlated with the climbing, braking and accelerating performance of the electric vehicles. Accurate power capability prediction can not only guarantee the safety but also regulate driving behavior and optimize battery energy usage. However, the nonlinearity of the battery model is very complex especially for the lithium iron phosphate batteries. Besides, the hysteresis loop in the open-circuit voltage curve is easy to cause large error in model prediction. In this work, a multi-parameter constraints dynamic estimation method is proposed to predict the battery continuous period power capability. A high-fidelity battery model which considers the battery polarization and hysteresis phenomenon is presented to approximate the high nonlinearity of the lithium iron phosphate battery. Explicit analyses of power capability with multiple constraints are elaborated, specifically the state-of-energy is considered in power capability assessment. Furthermore, to solve the problem of nonlinear system state estimation, and suppress noise interference, the UKF based state observer is employed for power capability prediction. The performance of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by experiments under different dynamic characterization schedules. The charge and discharge power capabilities of the lithium iron phosphate batteries are quantitatively assessed under different time scales and temperatures.

Evaluating the accuracy of SHAPE-directed RNA secondary structure predictions

PubMed Central

Sükösd, Zsuzsanna; Swenson, M. Shel; Kjems, Jørgen; Heitsch, Christine E.

2013-01-01

Recent advances in RNA structure determination include using data from high-throughput probing experiments to improve thermodynamic prediction accuracy. We evaluate the extent and nature of improvements in data-directed predictions for a diverse set of 16S/18S ribosomal sequences using a stochastic model of experimental SHAPE data. The average accuracy for 1000 data-directed predictions always improves over the original minimum free energy (MFE) structure. However, the amount of improvement varies with the sequence, exhibiting a correlation with MFE accuracy. Further analysis of this correlation shows that accurate MFE base pairs are typically preserved in a data-directed prediction, whereas inaccurate ones are not. Thus, the positive predictive value of common base pairs is consistently higher than the directed prediction accuracy. Finally, we confirm sequence dependencies in the directability of thermodynamic predictions and investigate the potential for greater accuracy improvements in the worst performing test sequence. PMID:23325843

Balancing computation and communication power in power constrained clusters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piga, Leonardo; Paul, Indrani; Huang, Wei

Systems, apparatuses, and methods for balancing computation and communication power in power constrained environments. A data processing cluster with a plurality of compute nodes may perform parallel processing of a workload in a power constrained environment. Nodes that finish tasks early may be power-gated based on one or more conditions. In some scenarios, a node may predict a wait duration and go into a reduced power consumption state if the wait duration is predicted to be greater than a threshold. The power saved by power-gating one or more nodes may be reassigned for use by other nodes. A cluster agentmore » may be configured to reassign the unused power to the active nodes to expedite workload processing.« less

Modeling of a resonant heat engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preetham, B. S.; Anderson, M.; Richards, C.

2012-12-01

A resonant heat engine in which the piston assembly is replaced by a sealed elastic cavity is modeled and analyzed. A nondimensional lumped-parameter model is derived and used to investigate the factors that control the performance of the engine. The thermal efficiency predicted by the model agrees with that predicted from the relation for the Otto cycle based on compression ratio. The predictions show that for a fixed mechanical load, increasing the heat input results in increased efficiency. The output power and power density are shown to depend on the loading for a given heat input. The loading condition for maximum output power is different from that required for maximum power density.

Synchrophasor-Assisted Prediction of Stability/Instability of a Power System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha Roy, Biman Kumar; Sinha, Avinash Kumar; Pradhan, Ashok Kumar

2013-05-01

This paper presents a technique for real-time prediction of stability/instability of a power system based on synchrophasor measurements obtained from phasor measurement units (PMUs) at generator buses. For stability assessment the technique makes use of system severity indices developed using bus voltage magnitude obtained from PMUs and generator electrical power. Generator power is computed using system information and PMU information like voltage and current phasors obtained from PMU. System stability/instability is predicted when the indices exceeds a threshold value. A case study is carried out on New England 10-generator, 39-bus system to validate the performance of the technique.

Prediction of the effects of propeller operation on the static longitudinal stability of single-engine tractor monoplanes with flaps retracted

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weil, Joseph; Sleeman, William C , Jr

1949-01-01

The effects of propeller operation on the static longitudinal stability of single-engine tractor monoplanes are analyzed, and a simple method is presented for computing power-on pitching-moment curves for flap-retracted flight conditions. The methods evolved are based on the results of powered-model wind-tunnel investigations of 28 model configurations. Correlation curves are presented from which the effects of power on the downwash over the tail and the stabilizer effectiveness can be rapidly predicted. The procedures developed enable prediction of power-on longitudinal stability characteristics that are generally in very good agreement with experiment.

A Comparison between Bench Press Throw and Ballistic Push-Up tests to assess upper-body power in trained individuals.

PubMed

Bartolomei, Sandro; Nigro, Federico; Ruggeri, Sandro; Lanzoni, Ivan Malagoli; Ciacci, Simone; Merni, Franco; Sadres, Eliahu; Hoffman, Jay R; Semprini, Gabriele

2018-03-06

The purpose of the present study was to validate the ballistic push-up test performed with hands on a force plate (BPU) as a method to measure upper-body power. Twenty-eight experienced resistance trained men (age = 25.4 ± 5.2 y; body mass = 78.5 ± 9.0 kg; body height = 179.6 ± 7.8 cm) performed, two days apart, a bench press 1RM test and upper-body power tests. Mean power and peak power were assessed using the bench press throw test (BT) and the BPU test performed in randomized order. The area under the force/power curve (AUC) obtained at BT was also calculated. Power expressed at BPU was estimated using a time-based prediction equation. Mean force and the participant's body weight were used to predict the bench press 1RM. Pearson product moment correlations were used to examine relationships between the power assessment methods and between the predicted 1RM bench and the actual value. Large correlations (0.79; p < 0.001) were found between AUC and mean power expressed at BPU. Large correlations were also detected between mean power and peak power expressed at BT and BPU (0.75; p < 0.001 and 0.74; p < 0.001, respectively). Very large correlations (0.87; p < 0.001) were found between the 1RM bench and the 1RM predicted by the BPU. Results of the present study indicate that BPU represents a valid and reliable method to estimate the upper-body power in resistance-trained individuals.

Effects of atmospheric variations on acoustic system performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nation, Robert; Lang, Stephen; Olsen, Robert; Chintawongvanich, Prasan

1993-01-01

Acoustic propagation over medium to long ranges in the atmosphere is subject to many complex, interacting effects. Of particular interest at this point is modeling low frequency (less than 500 Hz) propagation for the purpose of predicting ranges and bearing accuracies at which acoustic sources can be detected. A simple means of estimating how much of the received signal power propagated directly from the source to the receiver and how much was received by turbulent scattering was developed. The correlations between the propagation mechanism and detection thresholds, beamformer bearing estimation accuracies, and beamformer processing gain of passive acoustic signal detection systems were explored.

Spatial-temporal analysis of coherent offshore wind field structures measured by scanning Doppler-lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valldecabres, L.; Friedrichs, W.; von Bremen, L.; Kühn, M.

2016-09-01

An analysis of the spatial and temporal power fluctuations of a simplified wind farm model is conducted on four offshore wind fields data sets, two from lidar measurements and two from LES under unstable and neutral atmospheric conditions. The integral length scales of the horizontal wind speed computed in the streamwise and the cross-stream direction revealed the elongation of the structures in the direction of the mean flow. To analyse the effect of the structures on the power output of a wind turbine, the aggregated equivalent power of two wind turbines with different turbine spacing in the streamwise and cross-stream direction is analysed at different time scales under 10 minutes. The fact of considering the summation of the power of two wind turbines smooths out the fluctuations of the power output of a single wind turbine. This effect, which is stronger with increasing spacing between turbines, can be seen in the aggregation of the power of two wind turbines in the streamwise direction. Due to the anti-correlation of the coherent structures in the cross-stream direction, this smoothing effect is stronger when the aggregated power is computed with two wind turbines aligned orthogonally to the mean flow direction.

Studying the Power of the Integrative Weaning Index in Predicting the Success Rate of the Spontaneous Breathing Trial in Patients under Mechanical Ventilation.

PubMed

Ebrahimabadi, Sahar; Moghadam, Ahmad Bagheri; Vakili, Mohammadali; Modanloo, Mahnaz; Khoddam, Homeira

2017-08-01

The use of weaning predictive indicators can avoid early extubation and wrongful prolonged mechanical ventilation. This study aimed to determine the power of the integrative weaning index (IWI) in predicting the success rate of the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) in patients under mechanical ventilation. In this prospective study, 105 patients undergoing mechanical ventilation for over 48 h were enrolled. Before weaning initiation, the IWI was calculated and based on the defined cutoff point (≥25), the success rate of the SBT was predicted. In case of weaning from the device, 2-h SBT was performed and the physiologic and respiratory indices were continuously studied while being intubated. If they were in the normal range besides the patient's tolerance, the test was considered as a success. The result was then compared with the IWI and further analyzed. The SBT was successful in 90 (85.7%) and unsuccessful in 15 (14.3%) cases. The difference between the true patient outcome after SBT, and the IWI prediction was 0.143 according to the Kappa agreement coefficient ( P < 0.001). Moreover, regarding the predictive power, IWI had high sensitivity (95.6%), specificity (40%), positive and negative predictive values (90.5% and 60), positive and negative likelihood ratios (1.59 and 0.11), and accuracy (86.7%). The IWI as a more objective indicator has acceptable accuracy and power for predicting the 2-h SBT result. Therefore, in addition to the reliable prediction of the final weaning outcome, it has favorable power to predict if the patient is ready to breathe spontaneously as the first step to weaning.

Studying the Power of the Integrative Weaning Index in Predicting the Success Rate of the Spontaneous Breathing Trial in Patients under Mechanical Ventilation

PubMed Central

Ebrahimabadi, Sahar; Moghadam, Ahmad Bagheri; Vakili, Mohammadali; Modanloo, Mahnaz; Khoddam, Homeira

2017-01-01

Background and Aims: The use of weaning predictive indicators can avoid early extubation and wrongful prolonged mechanical ventilation. This study aimed to determine the power of the integrative weaning index (IWI) in predicting the success rate of the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) in patients under mechanical ventilation. Materials and Methods: In this prospective study, 105 patients undergoing mechanical ventilation for over 48 h were enrolled. Before weaning initiation, the IWI was calculated and based on the defined cutoff point (≥25), the success rate of the SBT was predicted. In case of weaning from the device, 2-h SBT was performed and the physiologic and respiratory indices were continuously studied while being intubated. If they were in the normal range besides the patient's tolerance, the test was considered as a success. The result was then compared with the IWI and further analyzed. Results: The SBT was successful in 90 (85.7%) and unsuccessful in 15 (14.3%) cases. The difference between the true patient outcome after SBT, and the IWI prediction was 0.143 according to the Kappa agreement coefficient (P < 0.001). Moreover, regarding the predictive power, IWI had high sensitivity (95.6%), specificity (40%), positive and negative predictive values (90.5% and 60), positive and negative likelihood ratios (1.59 and 0.11), and accuracy (86.7%). Conclusion: The IWI as a more objective indicator has acceptable accuracy and power for predicting the 2-h SBT result. Therefore, in addition to the reliable prediction of the final weaning outcome, it has favorable power to predict if the patient is ready to breathe spontaneously as the first step to weaning. PMID:28904477

Electronic stopping powers for heavy ions in SiC and SiO{sub 2}

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, K.; Xue, H.; Zhang, Y., E-mail: Zhangy1@ornl.gov

2014-01-28

Accurate information on electronic stopping power is fundamental for broad advances in materials science, electronic industry, space exploration, and sustainable energy technologies. In the case of slow heavy ions in light targets, current codes and models provide significantly inconsistent predictions, among which the Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter (SRIM) code is the most commonly used one. Experimental evidence, however, has demonstrated considerable errors in the predicted ion and damage profiles based on SRIM stopping powers. In this work, electronic stopping powers for Cl, Br, I, and Au ions are experimentally determined in two important functional materials, SiC andmore » SiO{sub 2}, based on a single ion technique, and new electronic stopping power values are derived over the energy regime from 0 to 15 MeV, where large deviations from the SRIM predictions are observed. As an experimental validation, Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) are utilized to measure the depth profiles of implanted Au ions in SiC for energies from 700 keV to 15 MeV. The measured ion distributions by both RBS and SIMS are considerably deeper than the SRIM predictions, but agree well with predictions based on our derived stopping powers.« less

Electronic Stopping Powers For Heavy Ions In SiC And SiO2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Ke; Zhang, Y.; Zhu, Zihua

2014-01-24

Accurate information on electronic stopping power is fundamental for broad advances in materials science, electronic industry, space exploration, and sustainable energy technologies. In the case of slow heavy ions in light targets, current codes and models provide significantly inconsistent predictions, among which the Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter (SRIM) code is the most commonly used one. Experimental evidence, however, has demonstrated considerable errors in the predicted ion and damage profiles based on SRIM stopping powers. In this work, electronic stopping powers for Cl, Br, I, and Au ions are experimentally determined in two important functional materials, SiC andmore » SiO2, based on a single ion technique, and new electronic stopping power values are derived over the energy regime from 0 to 15 MeV, where large deviations from the SRIM predictions are observed. As an experimental validation, Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) are utilized to measure the depth profiles of implanted Au ions in SiC for energies from 700 keV to 15MeV. The measured ion distributions by both RBS and SIMS are considerably deeper than the SRIM predictions, but agree well with predictions based on our derived stopping powers.« less

Tonic pain and continuous EEG: prediction of subjective pain perception by alpha-1 power during stimulation and at rest.

PubMed

Nir, Rony-Reuven; Sinai, Alon; Moont, Ruth; Harari, Eyal; Yarnitsky, David

2012-03-01

Pain neurophysiology has been chiefly characterized via event-related potentials (ERPs), which are exerted using brief, phase-locked noxious stimuli. Striving for objectively characterizing clinical pain states using more natural, prolonged stimuli, tonic pain has been recently associated with the individual peak frequency of alpha oscillations. This finding encouraged us to explore whether alpha power, reflecting the magnitude of the synchronized activity within this frequency range, will demonstrate a corresponding relationship with subjective perception of tonic pain. Five-minute-long continuous EEG was recorded in 18 healthy volunteers under: (i) resting-state; (ii) innocuous temperature; and (iii) psychophysically-anchored noxious temperature. Numerical pain scores (NPSs) collected during the application of tonic noxious stimuli were tested for correlation with alpha-1 and alpha-2 power. NPSs and alpha power remained stable throughout the recording conditions (Ps⩾0.381). In the noxious condition, alpha-1 power obtained at the bilateral temporal scalp was negatively correlated with NPSs (Ps⩽0.04). Additionally, resting-state alpha-1 power recorded at the bilateral temporal scalp was negatively correlated with NPSs reported during the noxious condition (Ps⩽0.038). Current findings suggest alpha-1 power may serve as a direct, objective and experimentally stable measure of subjective perception of tonic pain. Furthermore, resting-state alpha-1 power might reflect individuals' inherent tonic pain responsiveness. The relevance of alpha-1 power to tonic pain perception may deepen the understanding of the mechanisms underlying the processing of prolonged noxious stimulation. Copyright © 2011 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Advanced Stirling Convertor Net Heat Input Correlation Methods Using a Thermal Standard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Briggs, Maxwell H.; Schifer, Nicholas A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), developed by Sunpower Inc. and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). The ASCs convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. As part of ground testing of these ASCs, different operating conditions are used to simulate expected mission conditions. These conditions require achieving a particular operating frequency, hot end and cold end temperatures, and specified electrical power output for a given net heat input. In an effort to improve net heat input predictions, numerous tasks have been performed which provided a more accurate value for net heat input into the ASCs, including testing validation hardware, known as the Thermal Standard, to provide a direct comparison to numerical and empirical models used to predict convertor net heat input. This validation hardware provided a comparison for scrutinizing and improving empirical correlations and numerical models of ASC-E2 net heat input. This hardware simulated the characteristics of an ASC-E2 convertor in both an operating and non-operating mode. This paper describes the Thermal Standard testing and the conclusions of the validation effort applied to the empirical correlation methods used by the Radioisotope Power System (RPS) team at NASA Glenn.

Prosthetic leg powered by MR brake and SMA wires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, The; Munguia, Vicente; Calderon, Jose

2014-04-01

Current knee designs for prosthetic legs rely on electric motors for both moving and stationary states. The electric motors draw an especially high level of current to sustain a fixed position. The advantage of using magnetorheological (MR) fluid is that it requires less current and can have a variable braking torque. Besides, the proposed prosthetic leg is actuated by NiTinol wire, a popular shape memory alloy (SMA). The incorporation of NiTinol gives the leg more realistic weight distribution with appropriate arrangement of the batteries and wires. The prosthesis in this research was designed with MR brake as stopping component and SMA wire network as actuating component at the knee. The MR brake was designed with novel non-circular shape for the rotor that improved the braking torque while minimizing the power consumption. The design also helped simplify the control of braking process. The SMA wire network was design so that the knee motion was actively rotated in both directions. The SMA wires were arranged and played very similar role as the leg's muscles. The study started with the overall solid design of the knee including both MR and SMA parts. Theoretical models were derived and programmed in Simulink for both components. The simulation was capable of predicting the power required for moving the leg or hold it in a fixed position for a certain amount of time. Subsequently, the design was prototyped and tested to validate the theoretical prediction. The theoretical models were updated accordingly to correlate with the experimental data.

Comparison and validation of statistical methods for predicting power outage durations in the event of hurricanes.

PubMed

Nateghi, Roshanak; Guikema, Seth D; Quiring, Steven M

2011-12-01

This article compares statistical methods for modeling power outage durations during hurricanes and examines the predictive accuracy of these methods. Being able to make accurate predictions of power outage durations is valuable because the information can be used by utility companies to plan their restoration efforts more efficiently. This information can also help inform customers and public agencies of the expected outage times, enabling better collective response planning, and coordination of restoration efforts for other critical infrastructures that depend on electricity. In the long run, outage duration estimates for future storm scenarios may help utilities and public agencies better allocate risk management resources to balance the disruption from hurricanes with the cost of hardening power systems. We compare the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of five distinct statistical models for estimating power outage duration times caused by Hurricane Ivan in 2004. The methods compared include both regression models (accelerated failure time (AFT) and Cox proportional hazard models (Cox PH)) and data mining techniques (regression trees, Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), and multivariate additive regression splines). We then validate our models against two other hurricanes. Our results indicate that BART yields the best prediction accuracy and that it is possible to predict outage durations with reasonable accuracy. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Performance of Comorbidity, Risk Adjustment, and Functional Status Measures in Expenditure Prediction for Patients With Diabetes

PubMed Central

Maciejewski, Matthew L.; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D.

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE—To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline expenditures were constructed from administrative and survey data. Outpatient, inpatient, and total expenditure models were estimated using ordinary least squares regression. Adjusted R2 statistics and predictive ratios were compared across measures to assess overall explanatory power and explanatory power of low- and high-cost subgroups. RESULTS—Administrative data–based risk adjusters performed better than the comorbidity, functional status, and diabetes-specific measures in all expenditure models. The diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) measure had the greatest predictive power overall and for the low- and high-cost subgroups, while the diabetes-specific measure had the lowest predictive power. A model with DCGs and the diabetes-specific measure modestly improved predictive power. CONCLUSIONS—Existing generic measures can be useful for diabetes-specific research and policy applications, but more predictive diabetes-specific measures are needed. PMID:18945927

Off-Ice Anaerobic Power Does Not Predict On-Ice Repeated Shift Performance in Hockey.

PubMed

Peterson, Ben J; Fitzgerald, John S; Dietz, Calvin C; Ziegler, Kevin S; Baker, Sarah E; Snyder, Eric M

2016-09-01

Peterson, BJ, Fitzgerald, JS, Dietz, CC, Ziegler, KS, Baker, SE, and Snyder, EM. Off-ice anaerobic power does not predict on-ice repeated shift performance in hockey. J Strength Cond Res 30(9): 2375-2381, 2016-Anaerobic power is a significant predictor of acceleration and top speed in team sport athletes. Historically, these findings have been applied to ice hockey although recent research has brought their validity for this sport into question. As ice hockey emphasizes the ability to repeatedly produce power, single bout anaerobic power tests should be examined to determine their ability to predict on-ice performance. We tested whether conventional off-ice anaerobic power tests could predict on-ice acceleration, top speed, and repeated shift performance. Forty-five hockey players, aged 18-24 years, completed anthropometric, off-ice, and on-ice tests. Anthropometric and off-ice testing included height, weight, body composition, vertical jump, and Wingate tests. On-ice testing consisted of acceleration, top speed, and repeated shift fatigue tests. Vertical jump (VJ) (r = -0.42; r = -0.58), Wingate relative peak power (WRPP) (r = -0.32; r = -0.43), and relative mean power (WRMP) (r = -0.34; r = -0.48) were significantly correlated (p ≤ 0.05) to on-ice acceleration and top speed, respectively. Conversely, none of the off-ice tests correlated with on-ice repeated shift performance, as measured by first gate, second gate, or total course fatigue; VJ (r = 0.06; r = 0.13; r = 0.09), WRPP (r = 0.06; r = 0.14; r = 0.10), or WRMP (r = -0.10; r = -0.01; r = -0.01). Although conventional off-ice anaerobic power tests predict single bout on-ice acceleration and top speed, they neither predict the repeated shift ability of the player, nor are good markers for performance in ice hockey.

Enhanced distributed energy resource system

DOEpatents

Atcitty, Stanley [Albuquerque, NM; Clark, Nancy H [Corrales, NM; Boyes, John D [Albuquerque, NM; Ranade, Satishkumar J [Las Cruces, NM

2007-07-03

A power transmission system including a direct current power source electrically connected to a conversion device for converting direct current into alternating current, a conversion device connected to a power distribution system through a junction, an energy storage device capable of producing direct current connected to a converter, where the converter, such as an insulated gate bipolar transistor, converts direct current from an energy storage device into alternating current and supplies the current to the junction and subsequently to the power distribution system. A microprocessor controller, connected to a sampling and feedback module and the converter, determines when the current load is higher than a set threshold value, requiring triggering of the converter to supply supplemental current to the power transmission system.

Asymmetric Power Boosts Extortion in an Economic Experiment

PubMed Central

Hagel, Kristin; Milinski, Manfred

2016-01-01

Direct reciprocity is a major mechanism for the evolution of cooperation. Several classical studies have suggested that humans should quickly learn to adopt reciprocal strategies to establish mutual cooperation in repeated interactions. On the other hand, the recently discovered theory of ZD strategies has found that subjects who use extortionate strategies are able to exploit and subdue cooperators. Although such extortioners have been predicted to succeed in any population of adaptive opponents, theoretical follow-up studies questioned whether extortion can evolve in reality. However, most of these studies presumed that individuals have similar strategic possibilities and comparable outside options, whereas asymmetries are ubiquitous in real world applications. Here we show with a model and an economic experiment that extortionate strategies readily emerge once subjects differ in their strategic power. Our experiment combines a repeated social dilemma with asymmetric partner choice. In our main treatment there is one randomly chosen group member who is unilaterally allowed to exchange one of the other group members after every ten rounds of the social dilemma. We find that this asymmetric replacement opportunity generally promotes cooperation, but often the resulting payoff distribution reflects the underlying power structure. Almost half of the subjects in a better strategic position turn into extortioners, who quickly proceed to exploit their peers. By adapting their cooperation probabilities consistent with ZD theory, extortioners force their co-players to cooperate without being similarly cooperative themselves. Comparison to non-extortionate players under the same conditions indicates a substantial net gain to extortion. Our results thus highlight how power asymmetries can endanger mutually beneficial interactions, and transform them into exploitative relationships. In particular, our results indicate that the extortionate strategies predicted from ZD theory could play a more prominent role in our daily interactions than previously thought. PMID:27701427

The Importance of Strength and Power on Key Performance Indicators in Elite Youth Soccer.

PubMed

Wing, Christopher E; Turner, Anthony N; Bishop, Chris J

2018-01-24

The purpose of this investigation was to examine the importance of strength and power in relation to key performance indicators (KPI's) within competitive soccer match play. This was achieved through using an experimental approach where fifteen subjects were recruited from a professional soccer club's scholarship squad during the 2013/14 season. Following anthropometric measures, power and strength were assessed across a range of tests which included the squat jump (SJ), countermovement jump (CMJ), 20 metre (m) sprint and arrowhead change of direction test. A predicted 1-repetition maximum (RM) was also obtained for strength by performing a 3RM test for both the back squat and bench press and a total score of athleticism (TSA) was provided by summing z-scores for all fitness tests together, providing one complete score for athleticism. Performance analysis data was collected during 16 matches for the following KPIs: passing, shooting, dribbling, tackling and heading. Alongside this, data concerning player ball involvements (touches) was recorded. Results showed that there was a significant correlation (p < 0.05) between CMJ (r = 0.80), SJ (r = 0.79) and TSA (r = 0.64) in relation to heading success. Similarly, a significant correlation (p < 0.05) between predicted 1RM squat strength and tackle success (r = 0.61). These data supports the notion that strength and power training are important to soccer performance, particularly when players are required to win duels of a physical nature. There were no other relationships found between the fitness data and the KPI's recorded during match play which may indicate that other aspects of player's development such as technical skill, cognitive function and sensory awareness are more important for soccer-specific performance.

A model for the release, dispersion and environmental impact of a postulated reactor accident from a submerged commercial nuclear power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertch, Timothy Creston

1998-12-01

Nuclear power plants are inherently suitable for submerged applications and could provide power to the shore power grid or support future underwater applications. The technology exists today and the construction of a submerged commercial nuclear power plant may become desirable. A submerged reactor is safer to humans because the infinite supply of water for heat removal, particulate retention in the water column, sedimentation to the ocean floor and inherent shielding of the aquatic environment would significantly mitigate the effects of a reactor accident. A better understanding of reactor operation in this new environment is required to quantify the radioecological impact and to determine the suitability of this concept. The impact of release to the environment from a severe reactor accident is a new aspect of the field of marine radioecology. Current efforts have been centered on radioecological impacts of nuclear waste disposal, nuclear weapons testing fallout and shore nuclear plant discharges. This dissertation examines the environmental impact of a severe reactor accident in a submerged commercial nuclear power plant, modeling a postulated site on the Atlantic continental shelf adjacent to the United States. This effort models the effects of geography, decay, particle transport/dispersion, bioaccumulation and elimination with associated dose commitment. The use of a source term equivalent to the release from Chernobyl allows comparison between the impacts of that accident and the postulated submerged commercial reactor plant accident. All input parameters are evaluated using sensitivity analysis. The effect of the release on marine biota is determined. Study of the pathways to humans from gaseous radionuclides, consumption of contaminated marine biota and direct exposure as contaminated water reaches the shoreline is conducted. The model developed by this effort predicts a significant mitigation of the radioecological impact of the reactor accident release with a submerged commercial nuclear power plant. The two box models predict the most of the radio-ecological impact occurs during the first eight days after release. The most significant risk to humans is from consumption of biota. The reduction in impact to humans from a large radioactive release makes the concept worthy of further study.