Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.M.; Moniz, L.; Nichols, J.D.; Pecora, L.M.; Cooch, E.

2005-01-01

A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

Chaos and Forecasting - Proceedings of the Royal Society Discussion Meeting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Howell

1995-04-01

The Table of Contents for the full book PDF is as follows: * Preface * Orthogonal Projection, Embedding Dimension and Sample Size in Chaotic Time Series from a Statistical Perspective * A Theory of Correlation Dimension for Stationary Time Series * On Prediction and Chaos in Stochastic Systems * Locally Optimized Prediction of Nonlinear Systems: Stochastic and Deterministic * A Poisson Distribution for the BDS Test Statistic for Independence in a Time Series * Chaos and Nonlinear Forecastability in Economics and Finance * Paradigm Change in Prediction * Predicting Nonuniform Chaotic Attractors in an Enzyme Reaction * Chaos in Geophysical Fluids * Chaotic Modulation of the Solar Cycle * Fractal Nature in Earthquake Phenomena and its Simple Models * Singular Vectors and the Predictability of Weather and Climate * Prediction as a Criterion for Classifying Natural Time Series * Measuring and Characterising Spatial Patterns, Dynamics and Chaos in Spatially-Extended Dynamical Systems and Ecologies * Non-Linear Forecasting and Chaos in Ecology and Epidemiology: Measles as a Case Study

Inattentional Blindness and Individual Differences in Cognitive Abilities.

PubMed

Kreitz, Carina; Furley, Philip; Memmert, Daniel; Simons, Daniel J

2015-01-01

People sometimes fail to notice salient unexpected objects when their attention is otherwise occupied, a phenomenon known as inattentional blindness. To explore individual differences in inattentional blindness, we employed both static and dynamic tasks that either presented the unexpected object away from the focus of attention (spatial) or near the focus of attention (central). We hypothesized that noticing in central tasks might be driven by the availability of cognitive resources like working memory, and that noticing in spatial tasks might be driven by the limits on spatial attention like attention breadth. However, none of the cognitive measures predicted noticing in the dynamic central task or in either the static or dynamic spatial task. Only in the central static task did working memory capacity predict noticing, and that relationship was fairly weak. Furthermore, whether or not participants noticed an unexpected object in a static task was only weakly associated with their odds of noticing an unexpected object in a dynamic task. Taken together, our results are largely consistent with the notion that noticing unexpected objects is driven more by stochastic processes common to all people than by stable individual differences in cognitive abilities.

Inattentional Blindness and Individual Differences in Cognitive Abilities

PubMed Central

Kreitz, Carina; Furley, Philip; Memmert, Daniel; Simons, Daniel J.

2015-01-01

People sometimes fail to notice salient unexpected objects when their attention is otherwise occupied, a phenomenon known as inattentional blindness. To explore individual differences in inattentional blindness, we employed both static and dynamic tasks that either presented the unexpected object away from the focus of attention (spatial) or near the focus of attention (central). We hypothesized that noticing in central tasks might be driven by the availability of cognitive resources like working memory, and that noticing in spatial tasks might be driven by the limits on spatial attention like attention breadth. However, none of the cognitive measures predicted noticing in the dynamic central task or in either the static or dynamic spatial task. Only in the central static task did working memory capacity predict noticing, and that relationship was fairly weak. Furthermore, whether or not participants noticed an unexpected object in a static task was only weakly associated with their odds of noticing an unexpected object in a dynamic task. Taken together, our results are largely consistent with the notion that noticing unexpected objects is driven more by stochastic processes common to all people than by stable individual differences in cognitive abilities. PMID:26258545

The dynamic and indirect spatial effects of neighborhood conditions on land value, spatial panel dynamic econometrics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitriani, Rahma; Sumarminingsih, Eni; Astutik, Suci

2017-05-01

Land value is the product of past decision of its use leading to its value, as well as the value of the surrounded land. It is also affected by the local characteristic and the spillover development demand of the previous time period. The effect of each factor on land value will have dynamic and spatial virtues. Thus, a spatial panel dynamic model is used to estimate the particular effects. The model will be useful for predicting the future land value or the effect of implemented policy on land value. The objective of this paper is to derive the dynamic and indirect spatial marginal effects of the land characteristic and the spillover development demand on land value. Each effect is the partial derivative of the expected land value based on the spatial dynamic model with respect to each variable, by considering different time period and different location. The results indicate that the instant change of local or neighborhood characteristics on land value affect the local and the immediate neighborhood land value. However, the longer the change take place, the effect will spread further, not only on the immediate neighborhood.

DVD-COOP: Innovative Conjunction Prediction Using Voronoi-filter based on the Dynamic Voronoi Diagram of 3D Spheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cha, J.; Ryu, J.; Lee, M.; Song, C.; Cho, Y.; Schumacher, P.; Mah, M.; Kim, D.

Conjunction prediction is one of the critical operations in space situational awareness (SSA). For geospace objects, common algorithms for conjunction prediction are usually based on all-pairwise check, spatial hash, or kd-tree. Computational load is usually reduced through some filters. However, there exists a good chance of missing potential collisions between space objects. We present a novel algorithm which both guarantees no missing conjunction and is efficient to answer to a variety of spatial queries including pairwise conjunction prediction. The algorithm takes only O(k log N) time for N objects in the worst case to answer conjunctions where k is a constant which is linear to prediction time length. The proposed algorithm, named DVD-COOP (Dynamic Voronoi Diagram-based Conjunctive Orbital Object Predictor), is based on the dynamic Voronoi diagram of moving spherical balls in 3D space. The algorithm has a preprocessing which consists of two steps: The construction of an initial Voronoi diagram (taking O(N) time on average) and the construction of a priority queue for the events of topology changes in the Voronoi diagram (taking O(N log N) time in the worst case). The scalability of the proposed algorithm is also discussed. We hope that the proposed Voronoi-approach will change the computational paradigm in spatial reasoning among space objects.

Modelling hen harrier dynamics to inform human-wildlife conflict resolution: a spatially-realistic, individual-based approach.

PubMed

Heinonen, Johannes P M; Palmer, Stephen C F; Redpath, Steve M; Travis, Justin M J

2014-01-01

Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions.

Modelling Hen Harrier Dynamics to Inform Human-Wildlife Conflict Resolution: A Spatially-Realistic, Individual-Based Approach

PubMed Central

Heinonen, Johannes P. M.; Palmer, Stephen C. F.; Redpath, Steve M.; Travis, Justin M. J.

2014-01-01

Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions. PMID:25405860

Irruptive dynamics of introduced caribou on Adak Island, Alaska: an evaluation of Riney-Caughley model predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ricca, Mark A.; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Weckerly, Floyd W.; Williams, Jeffrey C.; Miles, A. Keith

2014-01-01

Large mammalian herbivores introduced to islands without predators are predicted to undergo irruptive population and spatial dynamics, but only a few well-documented case studies support this paradigm. We used the Riney-Caughley model as a framework to test predictions of irruptive population growth and spatial expansion of caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) introduced to Adak Island in the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska in 1958 and 1959. We utilized a time series of spatially explicit counts conducted on this population intermittently over a 54-year period. Population size increased from 23 released animals to approximately 2900 animals in 2012. Population dynamics were characterized by two distinct periods of irruptive growth separated by a long time period of relative stability, and the catalyst for the initial irruption was more likely related to annual variation in hunting pressure than weather conditions. An unexpected pattern resembling logistic population growth occurred between the peak of the second irruption in 2005 and the next survey conducted seven years later in 2012. Model simulations indicated that an increase in reported harvest alone could not explain the deceleration in population growth, yet high levels of unreported harvest combined with increasing density-dependent feedbacks on fecundity and survival were the most plausible explanation for the observed population trend. No studies of introduced island Rangifer have measured a time series of spatial use to the extent described in this study. Spatial use patterns during the post-calving season strongly supported Riney-Caughley model predictions, whereby high-density core areas expanded outwardly as population size increased. During the calving season, caribou displayed marked site fidelity across the full range of population densities despite availability of other suitable habitats for calving. Finally, dispersal and reproduction on neighboring Kagalaska Island represented a new dispersal front for irruptive dynamics and a new challenge for resource managers. The future demography of caribou on both islands is far from certain, yet sustained and significant hunting pressure should be a vital management tool.

Accounting for Landscape Heterogeneity Improves Spatial Predictions of Tree Vulnerability to Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwantes, A. M.; Parolari, A.; Swenson, J. J.; Johnson, D. M.; Domec, J. C.; Jackson, R. B.; Pelak, N. F., III; Porporato, A. M.

2017-12-01

Globally, as climate change continues, forest vulnerability to droughts and heatwaves is increasing, but vulnerability differs regionally and locally depending on landscape position. However, most models used in forecasting forest responses to heatwaves and droughts do not incorporate relevant spatial processes. To improve predictions of spatial tree vulnerability, we employed a non-linear stochastic model of soil moisture dynamics across a landscape, accounting for spatial differences in aspect, topography, and soils. Our unique approach integrated plant hydraulics and landscape processes, incorporating effects from lateral redistribution of water using a topographic index and radiation and temperature differences attributable to aspect. Across a watershed in central Texas we modeled dynamic water stress for a dominant tree species, Juniperus ashei. We compared our results to a detailed spatial dataset of drought-impacted areas (>25% canopy loss) derived from remote sensing during the severe 2011 drought. We then projected future dynamic water stress through the 21st century using climate projections from 10 global climate models under two scenarios, and compared models with and without landscape heterogeneity. Within this watershed, 42% of J. ashei dominated systems were impacted by the 2011 drought. Modeled dynamic water stress tracked these spatial patterns of observed drought-impacted areas. Total accuracy increased from 59%, when accounting only for soil variability, to 73% when including lateral redistribution of water and radiation and temperature effects. Dynamic water stress was projected to increase through the 21st century, with only minimal buffering from the landscape. During the hotter and more severe droughts projected in the 21st century, up to 90% of the watershed crossed a dynamic water stress threshold associated with canopy loss in 2011. Favorable microsites may exist across a landscape where trees can persist; however, if future droughts are too severe, the buffering capacity of a heterogenous landscape could be overwhelmed. Incorporating spatial data will improve projections of future tree water stress and identification of potential resilient refugia.

Tests of the Dynamic Field Theory and the Spatial Precision Hypothesis: Capturing a Qualitative Developmental Transition in Spatial Working Memory

PubMed Central

Schutte, Anne R.; Spencer, John P.

2009-01-01

This study tested a dynamic field theory (DFT) of spatial working memory and an associated spatial precision hypothesis (SPH). Between three and six years of age there is a qualitative shift in how children use reference axes to remember locations: 3-year-olds’ spatial recall responses are biased toward reference axes after short memory delays, whereas 6-year-olds’ responses are biased away from reference axes. According to the DFT and the SPH, quantitative improvements over development in the precision of excitatory and inhibitory working memory processes lead to this qualitative shift. Simulations of the DFT in Experiment 1 predict that improvements in precision should cause the spatial range of targets attracted toward a reference axis to narrow gradually over development with repulsion emerging and gradually increasing until responses to most targets show biases away from the axis. Results from Experiment 2 with 3- to 5-year-olds support these predictions. Simulations of the DFT in Experiment 3 quantitatively fit the empirical results and offer insights into the neural processes underlying this developmental change. PMID:19968430

Natural image sequences constrain dynamic receptive fields and imply a sparse code.

PubMed

Häusler, Chris; Susemihl, Alex; Nawrot, Martin P

2013-11-06

In their natural environment, animals experience a complex and dynamic visual scenery. Under such natural stimulus conditions, neurons in the visual cortex employ a spatially and temporally sparse code. For the input scenario of natural still images, previous work demonstrated that unsupervised feature learning combined with the constraint of sparse coding can predict physiologically measured receptive fields of simple cells in the primary visual cortex. This convincingly indicated that the mammalian visual system is adapted to the natural spatial input statistics. Here, we extend this approach to the time domain in order to predict dynamic receptive fields that can account for both spatial and temporal sparse activation in biological neurons. We rely on temporal restricted Boltzmann machines and suggest a novel temporal autoencoding training procedure. When tested on a dynamic multi-variate benchmark dataset this method outperformed existing models of this class. Learning features on a large dataset of natural movies allowed us to model spatio-temporal receptive fields for single neurons. They resemble temporally smooth transformations of previously obtained static receptive fields and are thus consistent with existing theories. A neuronal spike response model demonstrates how the dynamic receptive field facilitates temporal and population sparseness. We discuss the potential mechanisms and benefits of a spatially and temporally sparse representation of natural visual input. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictive computation of genomic logic processing functions in embryonic development

PubMed Central

Peter, Isabelle S.; Faure, Emmanuel; Davidson, Eric H.

2012-01-01

Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) control the dynamic spatial patterns of regulatory gene expression in development. Thus, in principle, GRN models may provide system-level, causal explanations of developmental process. To test this assertion, we have transformed a relatively well-established GRN model into a predictive, dynamic Boolean computational model. This Boolean model computes spatial and temporal gene expression according to the regulatory logic and gene interactions specified in a GRN model for embryonic development in the sea urchin. Additional information input into the model included the progressive embryonic geometry and gene expression kinetics. The resulting model predicted gene expression patterns for a large number of individual regulatory genes each hour up to gastrulation (30 h) in four different spatial domains of the embryo. Direct comparison with experimental observations showed that the model predictively computed these patterns with remarkable spatial and temporal accuracy. In addition, we used this model to carry out in silico perturbations of regulatory functions and of embryonic spatial organization. The model computationally reproduced the altered developmental functions observed experimentally. Two major conclusions are that the starting GRN model contains sufficiently complete regulatory information to permit explanation of a complex developmental process of gene expression solely in terms of genomic regulatory code, and that the Boolean model provides a tool with which to test in silico regulatory circuitry and developmental perturbations. PMID:22927416

Perception of differences in naturalistic dynamic scenes, and a V1-based model.

PubMed

To, Michelle P S; Gilchrist, Iain D; Tolhurst, David J

2015-01-16

We investigate whether a computational model of V1 can predict how observers rate perceptual differences between paired movie clips of natural scenes. Observers viewed 198 pairs of movies clips, rating how different the two clips appeared to them on a magnitude scale. Sixty-six of the movie pairs were naturalistic and those remaining were low-pass or high-pass spatially filtered versions of those originals. We examined three ways of comparing a movie pair. The Spatial Model compared corresponding frames between each movie pairwise, combining those differences using Minkowski summation. The Temporal Model compared successive frames within each movie, summed those differences for each movie, and then compared the overall differences between the paired movies. The Ordered-Temporal Model combined elements from both models, and yielded the single strongest predictions of observers' ratings. We modeled naturalistic sustained and transient impulse functions and compared frames directly with no temporal filtering. Overall, modeling naturalistic temporal filtering improved the models' performance; in particular, the predictions of the ratings for low-pass spatially filtered movies were much improved by employing a transient impulse function. The correlations between model predictions and observers' ratings rose from 0.507 without temporal filtering to 0.759 (p = 0.01%) when realistic impulses were included. The sustained impulse function and the Spatial Model carried more weight in ratings for normal and high-pass movies, whereas the transient impulse function with the Ordered-Temporal Model was most important for spatially low-pass movies. This is consistent with models in which high spatial frequency channels with sustained responses primarily code for spatial details in movies, while low spatial frequency channels with transient responses code for dynamic events. © 2015 ARVO.

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

DOE PAGES

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; ...

2016-10-24

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. Here, we overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates inmore » the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Finally, our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.« less

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. Here, we overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates inmore » the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Finally, our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.« less

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Homer, Collin G.; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R.; Adler, Peter B.

2016-01-01

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. We overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.

Simulating forest management and its effect on landscape pattern

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson

2017-01-01

Landscapes are characterized by their structure (the spatial arrangement of landscape elements), their ecological function (how ecological processes operate within that structure), and the dynamics of change (disturbance and recovery). Thus, understanding the dynamic nature of landscapes and predicting their future dynamics are of particular emphasis. Landscape change...

An individual-based process model to simulate landscape-scale forest ecosystem dynamics

Treesearch

Rupert Seidl; Werner Rammer; Robert M. Scheller; Thomas Spies

2012-01-01

Forest ecosystem dynamics emerges from nonlinear interactions between adaptive biotic agents (i.e., individual trees) and their relationship with a spatially and temporally heterogeneous abiotic environment. Understanding and predicting the dynamics resulting from these complex interactions is crucial for the sustainable stewardship of ecosystems, particularly in the...

What Do They Have in Common? Physical Drivers of Streamflow Spatial Correlation and Prediction of Flow Regimes at Ungauged Locations in the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betterle, A.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2017-12-01

Streamflow dynamics strongly influence anthropogenic activities and the ecological functions of riverine and riparian habitats. However, the widespread lack of direct discharge measurements often challenges the set-up of conscious and effective decision-making processes, including droughts and floods protection, water resources management and river restoration practices. By characterizing the spatial correlation of daily streamflow timeseries at two arbitrary locations, this study provides a method to evaluate how spatially variable catchment-scale hydrological process affects the resulting streamflow dynamics along and across river systems. In particular, streamflow spatial correlation is described analytically as a function of morphological, climatic and vegetation properties in the contributing catchments, building on a joint probabilistic description of flow dynamics at pairs of outlets. The approach enables an explicit linkage between similarities of flow dynamics and spatial patterns of hydrologically relevant features of climate and landscape. Therefore, the method is suited to explore spatial patterns of streamflow dynamics across geomorphoclimatic gradients. In particular, we show how the streamflow correlation can be used at the continental scale to individuate catchment pairs with similar hydrological dynamics, thereby providing a useful tool for the estimate of flow duration curves in poorly gauged areas.

Communication: Slow relaxation, spatial mobility gradients, and vitrification in confined films.

PubMed

Mirigian, Stephen; Schweizer, Kenneth S

2014-10-28

Two decades of experimental research indicate that spatial confinement of glass-forming molecular and polymeric liquids results in major changes of their slow dynamics beginning at large confinement distances. A fundamental understanding remains elusive given the generic complexity of activated relaxation in supercooled liquids and the major complications of geometric confinement, interfacial effects, and spatial inhomogeneity. We construct a predictive, quantitative, force-level theory of relaxation in free-standing films for the central question of the nature of the spatial mobility gradient. The key new idea is that vapor interfaces speed up barrier hopping in two distinct, but coupled, ways by reducing near surface local caging constraints and spatially long range collective elastic distortion. Effective vitrification temperatures, dynamic length scales, and mobile layer thicknesses naturally follow. Our results provide a unified basis for central observations of dynamic and pseudo-thermodynamic measurements.

Communication: slow relaxation, spatial mobility gradients, and vitrification in confined films

DOE PAGES

Mirigian, Stephen; Schweizer, Kenneth S.

2014-10-31

Two decades of experimental research indicate that spatial confinement of glass-forming molecular and polymeric liquids results in major changes of their slow dynamics beginning at large confinement distances. A fundamental understanding remains elusive given the generic complexity of activated relaxation in supercooled liquids and the major complications of geometric confinement, interfacial effects, and spatial inhomogeneity. For this research, we construct a predictive, quantitative, force-level theory of relaxation in free-standing films for the central question of the nature of the spatial mobility gradient. The key new idea is that vapor interfaces speed up barrier hopping in two distinct, but coupled, waysmore » by reducing near surface local caging constraints and spatially long range collective elastic distortion. Effective vitrification temperatures, dynamic length scales, and mobile layer thicknesses naturally follow. In conclusion, our results provide a unified basis for central observations of dynamic and pseudo-thermodynamic measurements.« less

The problem of ecological scaling in spatially complex, nonequilibrium ecological systems [chapter 3

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Jeremy Littell; Kevin McGarigal

2010-01-01

In the previous chapter we reviewed the challenges posed by spatial complexity and temporal disequilibrium to efforts to understand and predict the structure and dynamics of ecological systems. The central theme was that spatial variability in the environment and population processes fundamentally alters the interactions between species and their environments, largely...

Deploying dengue-suppressing Wolbachia : Robust models predict slow but effective spatial spread in Aedes aegypti.

PubMed

Turelli, Michael; Barton, Nicholas H

2017-06-01

A novel strategy for controlling the spread of arboviral diseases such as dengue, Zika and chikungunya is to transform mosquito populations with virus-suppressing Wolbachia. In general, Wolbachia transinfected into mosquitoes induce fitness costs through lower viability or fecundity. These maternally inherited bacteria also produce a frequency-dependent advantage for infected females by inducing cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI), which kills the embryos produced by uninfected females mated to infected males. These competing effects, a frequency-dependent advantage and frequency-independent costs, produce bistable Wolbachia frequency dynamics. Above a threshold frequency, denoted pˆ, CI drives fitness-decreasing Wolbachia transinfections through local populations; but below pˆ, infection frequencies tend to decline to zero. If pˆ is not too high, CI also drives spatial spread once infections become established over sufficiently large areas. We illustrate how simple models provide testable predictions concerning the spatial and temporal dynamics of Wolbachia introductions, focusing on rate of spatial spread, the shape of spreading waves, and the conditions for initiating spread from local introductions. First, we consider the robustness of diffusion-based predictions to incorporating two important features of wMel-Aedes aegypti biology that may be inconsistent with the diffusion approximations, namely fast local dynamics induced by complete CI (i.e., all embryos produced from incompatible crosses die) and long-tailed, non-Gaussian dispersal. With complete CI, our numerical analyses show that long-tailed dispersal changes wave-width predictions only slightly; but it can significantly reduce wave speed relative to the diffusion prediction; it also allows smaller local introductions to initiate spatial spread. Second, we use approximations for pˆ and dispersal distances to predict the outcome of 2013 releases of wMel-infected Aedes aegypti in Cairns, Australia, Third, we describe new data from Ae. aegypti populations near Cairns, Australia that demonstrate long-distance dispersal and provide an approximate lower bound on pˆ for wMel in northeastern Australia. Finally, we apply our analyses to produce operational guidelines for efficient transformation of vector populations over large areas. We demonstrate that even very slow spatial spread, on the order of 10-20 m/month (as predicted), can produce area-wide population transformation within a few years following initial releases covering about 20-30% of the target area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying; Moges, Semu; Block, Paul

2018-01-01

Prediction of seasonal precipitation can provide actionable information to guide management of various sectoral activities. For instance, it is often translated into hydrological forecasts for better water resources management. However, many studies assume homogeneity in precipitation across an entire study region, which may prove ineffective for operational and local-level decisions, particularly for locations with high spatial variability. This study proposes advancing local-level seasonal precipitation predictions by first conditioning on regional-level predictions, as defined through objective cluster analysis, for western Ethiopia. To our knowledge, this is the first study predicting seasonal precipitation at high resolution in this region, where lives and livelihoods are vulnerable to precipitation variability given the high reliance on rain-fed agriculture and limited water resources infrastructure. The combination of objective cluster analysis, spatially high-resolution prediction of seasonal precipitation, and a modeling structure spanning statistical and dynamical approaches makes clear advances in prediction skill and resolution, as compared with previous studies. The statistical model improves versus the non-clustered case or dynamical models for a number of specific clusters in northwestern Ethiopia, with clusters having regional average correlation and ranked probability skill score (RPSS) values of up to 0.5 and 33 %, respectively. The general skill (after bias correction) of the two best-performing dynamical models over the entire study region is superior to that of the statistical models, although the dynamical models issue predictions at a lower resolution and the raw predictions require bias correction to guarantee comparable skills.

Spatial synchrony of local populations has increased in association with the recent Northern Hemisphere climate trend.

PubMed

Post, Eric; Forchhammer, Mads C

2004-06-22

According to ecological theory, populations whose dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation face increased extinction risk as environmental conditions become more synchronized spatially. This prediction is highly relevant to the study of ecological consequences of climate change. Recent empirical studies have indicated, for example, that large-scale climate synchronizes trophic interactions and population dynamics over broad spatial scales in freshwater and terrestrial systems. Here, we present an analysis of century-scale, spatially replicated data on local weather and the population dynamics of caribou in Greenland. Our results indicate that spatial autocorrelation in local weather has increased with large-scale climatic warming. This increase in spatial synchrony of environmental conditions has been matched, in turn, by an increase in the spatial synchrony of local caribou populations toward the end of the 20th century. Our results indicate that spatial synchrony in environmental conditions and the populations influenced by them are highly variable through time and can increase with climatic warming. We suggest that if future warming can increase population synchrony, it may also increase extinction risk.

Validating a spatially distributed hydrological model with soil morphology data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doppler, T.; Honti, M.; Zihlmann, U.; Weisskopf, P.; Stamm, C.

2013-10-01

Spatially distributed hydrological models are popular tools in hydrology and they are claimed to be useful to support management decisions. Despite the high spatial resolution of the computed variables, calibration and validation is often carried out only on discharge time-series at specific locations due to the lack of spatially distributed reference data. Because of this restriction, the predictive power of these models, with regard to predicted spatial patterns, can usually not be judged. An example of spatial predictions in hydrology is the prediction of saturated areas in agricultural catchments. These areas can be important source areas for the transport of agrochemicals to the stream. We set up a spatially distributed model to predict saturated areas in a 1.2 km2 catchment in Switzerland with moderate topography. Around 40% of the catchment area are artificially drained. We measured weather data, discharge and groundwater levels in 11 piezometers for 1.5 yr. For broadening the spatially distributed data sets that can be used for model calibration and validation, we translated soil morphological data available from soil maps into an estimate of the duration of soil saturation in the soil horizons. We used redox-morphology signs for these estimates. This resulted in a data set with high spatial coverage on which the model predictions were validated. In general, these saturation estimates corresponded well to the measured groundwater levels. We worked with a model that would be applicable for management decisions because of its fast calculation speed and rather low data requirements. We simultaneously calibrated the model to the groundwater levels in the piezometers and discharge. The model was able to reproduce the general hydrological behavior of the catchment in terms of discharge and absolute groundwater levels. However, the accuracy of the groundwater level predictions was not high enough to be used for the prediction of saturated areas. The groundwater level dynamics were not adequately reproduced and the predicted spatial patterns of soil saturation did not correspond to the patterns estimated from the soil map. Our results indicate that an accurate prediction of the groundwater level dynamics of the shallow groundwater in our catchment that is subject to artificial drainage would require a more complex model. Especially high spatial resolution and very detailed process representations at the boundary between the unsaturated and the saturated zone are expected to be crucial. The data needed for such a detailed model are not generally available. The high computational demand and the complex model setup would require more resources than the direct identification of saturated areas in the field. This severely hampers the practical use of such models despite their usefulness for scientific purposes.

Metabolic resource allocation in individual microbes determines ecosystem interactions and spatial dynamics

PubMed Central

Harcombe, William R.; Riehl, William J.; Dukovski, Ilija; Granger, Brian R.; Betts, Alex; Lang, Alex H.; Bonilla, Gracia; Kar, Amrita; Leiby, Nicholas; Mehta, Pankaj; Marx, Christopher J.; Segrè, Daniel

2014-01-01

Summary The inter-species exchange of metabolites plays a key role in the spatio-temporal dynamics of microbial communities. This raises the question whether ecosystem-level behavior of structured communities can be predicted using genome-scale models of metabolism for multiple organisms. We developed a modeling framework that integrates dynamic flux balance analysis with diffusion on a lattice, and applied it to engineered consortia. First, we predicted, and experimentally confirmed, the species-ratio to which a 2-species mutualistic consortium converges, and the equilibrium composition of a newly engineered 3-member community. We next identified a specific spatial arrangement of colonies, which gives rise to what we term the “eclipse dilemma”: does a competitor placed between a colony and its cross-feeding partner benefit or hurt growth of the original colony? Our experimentally validated finding, that the net outcome is beneficial, highlights the complex nature of metabolic interactions in microbial communities, while at the same time demonstrating their predictability. PMID:24794435

Spatio-temporal transitions in the dynamics of bacterial populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Anna; Lincoln, Bryan; Mann, Bernward; Torres, Gelsy; Kas, Josef; Swinney, Harry

2001-03-01

We experimentally investigate the population dynamics of a strain of E. coli bacteria living under spatially inhomogeneous growth conditions. A localized perturbation that moves with a well-defined drift velocity is imposed on the system. A reaction-diffusion model of this situation^1 predicts that an abrupt transition between spatial localization and extinction of the colony occurs for a fixed average growth rate when the drift velocity exceeds a critical value. Also, a transition between localized and delocalized populations is predicted to occur at a fixed drift velocity when the spatially averaged growth rate is varied. We create a spatially localized perturbation with UV light and vary the strength and drift velocity of the perturbation to investigate the existence of the different bacterial population distributions and the transitions between them. Numerical simulations of a 250 mm by 20 mm system guide our experiments. ^1K. A. Dahmen, D. R. Nelson, N. M. Shnerb, Jour. Math. Bio., 41 1 (2000).

Extinction threshold for spatial forest dynamics with height structure.

PubMed

Garcia-Domingo, Josep L; Saldaña, Joan

2011-05-07

We present a pair-approximation model for spatial forest dynamics defined on a regular lattice. The model assumes three possible states for a lattice site: empty (gap site), occupied by an immature tree, and occupied by a mature tree, and considers three nonlinearities in the dynamics associated to the processes of light interference, gap expansion, and recruitment. We obtain an expression of the basic reproduction number R(0) which, in contrast to the one obtained under the mean-field approach, uses information about the spatial arrangement of individuals close to extinction. Moreover, we analyze the corresponding survival-extinction transition of the forest and the spatial correlations among gaps, immature and mature trees close to this critical point. Predictions of the pair-approximation model are compared with those of a cellular automaton. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal dynamics and optical vortices in a photorefractive phase-conjugate resonator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Siuying Raymond; Indebetouw, Guy

1992-01-01

A truncated modal expansion approach is used to study the spatiotemporal dynamics of a phase-conjugate resonator as a function of Bragg detuning. The numerical results reveal a rich variety of behaviors. Emphasis is given to the spatial distribution of optical vortices, their trajectories and their relationship to the beam's spatial coherence. The limitations of the model are discussed and experimental results are presented for comparison with the model's predictions and assessment of its soundness.

Development of a non-linear spatial model for predicting snowpack and snowmelt

EPA Science Inventory

Formation and melting of snowpack can be important components of hydrologic budgets in mountainous areas. Methods that predict discharge without accounting for snowpack dynamics can overestimate potential discharge during periods of snowpack formation, and underestimate potentia...

A DYNAMIC MODEL OF AN ESTUARINE INVASION BY A NON-NATIVE SEAGRASS

EPA Science Inventory

Mathematical and simulation models provide an excellent tool for examining and predicting biological invasions in time and space; however, traditional models do not incorporate dynamic rates of population growth, which limits their realism. We developed a spatially explicit simul...

Mitotic Cortical Waves Predict Future Division Sites by Encoding Positional and Size Information.

PubMed

Xiao, Shengping; Tong, Cheesan; Yang, Yang; Wu, Min

2017-11-20

Dynamic spatial patterns such as traveling waves could theoretically encode spatial information, but little is known about whether or how they are employed by biological systems, especially higher eukaryotes. Here, we show that concentric target or spiral waves of active Cdc42 and the F-BAR protein FBP17 are invoked in adherent cells at the onset of mitosis. These waves predict the future sites of cell divisions and represent the earliest known spatial cues for furrow assembly. Unlike interphase waves, the frequencies and wavelengths of the mitotic waves display size-dependent scaling properties. While the positioning role of the metaphase waves requires microtubule dynamics, spindle and microtubule-independent inhibitory signals are propagated by the mitotic waves to ensure the singularity of furrow formation. Taken together, we propose that metaphase cortical waves integrate positional and cell size information for division-plane specification in adhesion-dependent cytokinesis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of landscape pattern and hydrologic process in watershed systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randhir, Timothy O.; Tsvetkova, Olga

2011-06-01

SummaryLand use change is influenced by spatial and temporal factors that interact with watershed resources. Modeling these changes is critical to evaluate emerging land use patterns and to predict variation in water quantity and quality. The objective of this study is to model the nature and emergence of spatial patterns in land use and water resource impacts using a spatially explicit and dynamic landscape simulation. Temporal changes are predicted using a probabilistic Markovian process and spatial interaction through cellular automation. The MCMC (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) analysis with cellular automation is linked to hydrologic equations to simulate landscape patterns and processes. The spatiotemporal watershed dynamics (SWD) model is applied to a subwatershed in the Blackstone River watershed of Massachusetts to predict potential land use changes and expected runoff and sediment loading. Changes in watershed land use and water resources are evaluated over 100 years at a yearly time step. Results show high potential for rapid urbanization that could result in lowering of groundwater recharge and increased storm water peaks. The watershed faces potential decreases in agricultural and forest area that affect open space and pervious cover of the watershed system. Water quality deteriorated due to increased runoff which can also impact stream morphology. While overland erosion decreased, instream erosion increased from increased runoff from urban areas. Use of urban best management practices (BMPs) in sensitive locations, preventive strategies, and long-term conservation planning will be useful in sustaining the watershed system.

The effect of area size and predation on the time to extinction of prairie vole populations. simulation studies via SERDYCA: a Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Model of Rodent Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

2003-11-21

We present a spatially-explicit individual-based computational model of rodent dynamics, customized for the prairie vole species, M. Ochrogaster. The model is based on trophic relationships and represents important features such as territorial competition, mating behavior, density-dependent predation and dispersal out of the modeled spatial region. Vegetation growth and vole fecundity are dependent on climatic components. The results of simulations show that the model correctly predicts the overall temporal dynamics of the population density. Time-series analysis shows a very good match between the periods corresponding to the peak population density frequencies predicted by the model and the ones reported in themore » literature. The model is used to study the relation between persistence, landscape area and predation. We introduce the notions of average time to extinction (ATE) and persistence frequency to quantify persistence. While the ATE decreases with decrease of area, it is a bell-shaped function of the predation level: increasing for 'small' and decreasing for 'large' predation levels.« less

Spatial occupancy models for predicting metapopulation dynamics and viability following reintroduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chandler, Richard B.; Muths, Erin L.; Sigafus, Brent H.; Schwalbe, Cecil R.; Jarchow, Christopher J.; Hossack, Blake R.

2015-01-01

Synthesis and applications. This work demonstrates how spatio-temporal statistical models based on ecological theory can be applied to forecast the outcomes of conservation actions such as reintroduction. Our spatial occupancy model should be particularly useful when management agencies lack the funds to collect intensive individual-level data.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

PubMed

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

2013-09-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis , the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

PubMed Central

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S.; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V.

2014-01-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001–2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

Temperature drives abundance fluctuations, but spatial dynamics is constrained by landscape configuration: Implications for climate-driven range shift in a butterfly.

PubMed

Fourcade, Yoan; Ranius, Thomas; Öckinger, Erik

2017-10-01

Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins. Here, using a butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future. Second, we used a 13-year monitoring dataset including the majority of all habitat patches at the species northern range margin to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on abundance and colonization-extinction dynamics. The fluctuation in abundance between years was almost entirely determined by the variation in temperature during the species larval development. In contrast, colonization and extinction dynamics were better explained by patch area, between-patch connectivity and host plant density. This suggests that the response of the species to future climate change may be limited by future land use and how its host plants respond to climate change. It is, thus, probable that dispersal limitation will prevent P. armoricanus from reaching its potential future distribution. We argue that models of range dynamics should consider the factors influencing metapopulation dynamics, especially at the range edges, and not only broad-scale climate. It includes factors acting at the scale of habitat patches such as habitat quality and microclimate and landscape-scale factors such as the spatial configuration of potentially suitable patches. Knowledge of population dynamics under various environmental conditions, and the incorporation of realistic scenarios of future land use, appears essential to provide predictions useful for actions mitigating the negative effects of climate change. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Plate tectonics drive tropical reef biodiversity dynamics

PubMed Central

Leprieur, Fabien; Descombes, Patrice; Gaboriau, Théo; Cowman, Peter F.; Parravicini, Valeriano; Kulbicki, Michel; Melián, Carlos J.; de Santana, Charles N.; Heine, Christian; Mouillot, David; Bellwood, David R.; Pellissier, Loïc

2016-01-01

The Cretaceous breakup of Gondwana strongly modified the global distribution of shallow tropical seas reshaping the geographic configuration of marine basins. However, the links between tropical reef availability, plate tectonic processes and marine biodiversity distribution patterns are still unknown. Here, we show that a spatial diversification model constrained by absolute plate motions for the past 140 million years predicts the emergence and movement of diversity hotspots on tropical reefs. The spatial dynamics of tropical reefs explains marine fauna diversification in the Tethyan Ocean during the Cretaceous and early Cenozoic, and identifies an eastward movement of ancestral marine lineages towards the Indo-Australian Archipelago in the Miocene. A mechanistic model based only on habitat-driven diversification and dispersal yields realistic predictions of current biodiversity patterns for both corals and fishes. As in terrestrial systems, we demonstrate that plate tectonics played a major role in driving tropical marine shallow reef biodiversity dynamics. PMID:27151103

Plate tectonics drive tropical reef biodiversity dynamics.

PubMed

Leprieur, Fabien; Descombes, Patrice; Gaboriau, Théo; Cowman, Peter F; Parravicini, Valeriano; Kulbicki, Michel; Melián, Carlos J; de Santana, Charles N; Heine, Christian; Mouillot, David; Bellwood, David R; Pellissier, Loïc

2016-05-06

The Cretaceous breakup of Gondwana strongly modified the global distribution of shallow tropical seas reshaping the geographic configuration of marine basins. However, the links between tropical reef availability, plate tectonic processes and marine biodiversity distribution patterns are still unknown. Here, we show that a spatial diversification model constrained by absolute plate motions for the past 140 million years predicts the emergence and movement of diversity hotspots on tropical reefs. The spatial dynamics of tropical reefs explains marine fauna diversification in the Tethyan Ocean during the Cretaceous and early Cenozoic, and identifies an eastward movement of ancestral marine lineages towards the Indo-Australian Archipelago in the Miocene. A mechanistic model based only on habitat-driven diversification and dispersal yields realistic predictions of current biodiversity patterns for both corals and fishes. As in terrestrial systems, we demonstrate that plate tectonics played a major role in driving tropical marine shallow reef biodiversity dynamics.

Corn rootworms (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in space and time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Yong-Lak

Spatial dispersion is a main characteristic of insect populations. Dispersion pattern provides useful information for developing effective sampling and scouting programs because it affects sampling accuracy, efficiency, and precision. Insect dispersion, however, is dynamic in space and time and largely dependent upon interactions among insect, plant and environmental factors. This study investigated the spatial and temporal dynamics of corn rootworm dispersion at different spatial scales by using the global positioning system, the geographic information system, and geostatistics. Egg dispersion pattern was random or uniform in 8-ha cornfields, but could be aggregated at a smaller scale. Larval dispersion pattern was aggregated regardless of spatial scales used in this study. Soil moisture positively affected corn rootworm egg and larval dispersions. Adult dispersion tended to be aggregated during peak population period and random or uniform early and late in the season and corn plant phenology was a major factor to determine dispersion patterns. The dispersion pattern of root injury by corn rootworm larval feeding was aggregated and the degree of aggregation increased as the root injury increased within the range of root injury observed in microscale study. Between-year relationships in dispersion among eggs, larvae, adult, and environment provided a strategy that could predict potential root damage the subsequent year. The best prediction map for the subsequent year's potential root damage was the dispersion maps of adults during population peaked in the cornfield. The prediction map was used to develop site-specific pest management that can reduce chemical input and increase control efficiency by controlling pests only where management is needed. This study demonstrated the spatio-temporal dynamics of insect population and spatial interactions among insects, plants, and environment.

Predicting the evolution of complex networks via similarity dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Tao; Chen, Leiting; Zhong, Linfeng; Xian, Xingping

2017-01-01

Almost all real-world networks are subject to constant evolution, and plenty of them have been investigated empirically to uncover the underlying evolution mechanism. However, the evolution prediction of dynamic networks still remains a challenging problem. The crux of this matter is to estimate the future network links of dynamic networks. This paper studies the evolution prediction of dynamic networks with link prediction paradigm. To estimate the likelihood of the existence of links more accurate, an effective and robust similarity index is presented by exploiting network structure adaptively. Moreover, most of the existing link prediction methods do not make a clear distinction between future links and missing links. In order to predict the future links, the networks are regarded as dynamic systems in this paper, and a similarity updating method, spatial-temporal position drift model, is developed to simulate the evolutionary dynamics of node similarity. Then the updated similarities are used as input information for the future links' likelihood estimation. Extensive experiments on real-world networks suggest that the proposed similarity index performs better than baseline methods and the position drift model performs well for evolution prediction in real-world evolving networks.

Range expansion through fragmented landscapes under a variable climate

PubMed Central

Bennie, Jonathan; Hodgson, Jenny A; Lawson, Callum R; Holloway, Crispin TR; Roy, David B; Brereton, Tom; Thomas, Chris D; Wilson, Robert J

2013-01-01

Ecological responses to climate change may depend on complex patterns of variability in weather and local microclimate that overlay global increases in mean temperature. Here, we show that high-resolution temporal and spatial variability in temperature drives the dynamics of range expansion for an exemplar species, the butterfly Hesperia comma. Using fine-resolution (5 m) models of vegetation surface microclimate, we estimate the thermal suitability of 906 habitat patches at the species' range margin for 27 years. Population and metapopulation models that incorporate this dynamic microclimate surface improve predictions of observed annual changes to population density and patch occupancy dynamics during the species' range expansion from 1982 to 2009. Our findings reveal how fine-scale, short-term environmental variability drives rates and patterns of range expansion through spatially localised, intermittent episodes of expansion and contraction. Incorporating dynamic microclimates can thus improve models of species range shifts at spatial and temporal scales relevant to conservation interventions. PMID:23701124

A Tour Through Shape Dynamic Black Holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herczeg, Gabriel

Shape dynamics is a classical theory of gravity which agrees with general relativity in many important cases, but possesses different gauge symmetries and constraints. Rather than spacetime diffeomorphism invariance, shape dynamics takes spatial diffeomorphism invariance and spatial Weyl invariance as the fundamental gauge symmetries associated with the gravitational field. Despite these differences, shape dynamics and general relativity generically predict the same dynamics--there exist gauge-fixings of each theory that ensure agreement with the other. However, these gauge-fixing conditions are not necessarily globally well-defined and it is therefore possible to find solutions of the shape dynamics equations of motion that agree with general relativity on some open neighborhoods, but which have different global structures. In particular, the black hole solutions of the two theories disagree globally. Understanding these novel "shape dynamic black holes" is the primary goal of this thesis.

Seasonal Prediction of Regional Surface Air Temperature and First-flowering Date in South Korea using Dynamical Downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, J. B.; Hur, J.

2015-12-01

The seasonal prediction of both the surface air temperature and the first-flowering date (FFD) over South Korea are produced using dynamical downscaling (Hur and Ahn, 2015). Dynamical downscaling is performed using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) v3.0 with the lateral forcing from hourly outputs of Pusan National University (PNU) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) v1.1. Gridded surface air temperature data with high spatial (3km) and temporal (daily) resolution are obtained using the physically-based dynamical models. To reduce systematic bias, simple statistical correction method is then applied to the model output. The FFDs of cherry, peach and pear in South Korea are predicted for the decade of 1999-2008 by applying the corrected daily temperature predictions to the phenological thermal-time model. The WRF v3.0 results reflect the detailed topographical effect, despite having cold and warm biases for warm and cold seasons, respectively. After applying the correction, the mean temperature for early spring (February to April) well represents the general pattern of observation, while preserving the advantages of dynamical downscaling. The FFD predictabilities for the three species of trees are evaluated in terms of qualitative, quantitative and categorical estimations. Although FFDs derived from the corrected WRF results well predict the spatial distribution and the variation of observation, the prediction performance has no statistical significance or appropriate predictability. The approach used in the study may be helpful in obtaining detailed and useful information about FFD and regional temperature by accounting for physically-based atmospheric dynamics, although the seasonal predictability of flowering phenology is not high enough. Acknowledgements This work was carried out with the support of the Rural Development Administration Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development under Grant Project No. PJ009953 and Project No. PJ009353, Republic of Korea. Reference Hur, J., J.-B. Ahn, 2015. Seasonal Prediction of Regional Surface Air Temperature and First-flowering Date over South Korea, Int. J. Climatol., DOI: 10.1002/joc.4323.

Measles on the edge: coastal heterogeneities and infection dynamics.

PubMed

Bharti, Nita; Xia, Yingcun; Bjornstad, Ottar N; Grenfell, Bryan T

2008-04-09

Mathematical models can help elucidate the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics as well as the impact of control measures. The gravity model for directly transmitted diseases is currently one of the most parsimonious models for spatial epidemic spread. This model uses distance-weighted, population size-dependent coupling to estimate host movement and disease incidence in metapopulations. The model captures overall measles dynamics in terms of underlying human movement in pre-vaccination England and Wales (previously established). In spatial models, edges often present a special challenge. Therefore, to test the model's robustness, we analyzed gravity model incidence predictions for coastal cities in England and Wales. Results show that, although predictions are accurate for inland towns, they significantly underestimate coastal persistence. We examine incidence, outbreak seasonality, and public transportation records, to show that the model's inaccuracies stem from an underestimation of total contacts per individual along the coast. We rescue this predicted 'edge effect' by increasing coastal contacts to approximate the number of per capita inland contacts. These results illustrate the impact of 'edge effects' on epidemic metapopulations in general and illustrate directions for the refinement of spatiotemporal epidemic models.

Spatial cognition and science achievement: The contribution of intrinsic and extrinsic spatial skills from 7 to 11 years.

PubMed

Hodgkiss, Alex; Gilligan, Katie A; Tolmie, Andrew K; Thomas, Michael S C; Farran, Emily K

2018-01-22

Prior longitudinal and correlational research with adults and adolescents indicates that spatial ability is a predictor of science learning and achievement. However, there is little research to date with primary-school aged children that addresses this relationship. Understanding this association has the potential to inform curriculum design and support the development of early interventions. This study examined the relationship between primary-school children's spatial skills and their science achievement. Children aged 7-11 years (N = 123) completed a battery of five spatial tasks, based on a model of spatial ability in which skills fall along two dimensions: intrinsic-extrinsic; static-dynamic. Participants also completed a curriculum-based science assessment. Controlling for verbal ability and age, mental folding (intrinsic-dynamic spatial ability), and spatial scaling (extrinsic-static spatial ability) each emerged as unique predictors of overall science scores, with mental folding a stronger predictor than spatial scaling. These spatial skills combined accounted for 8% of the variance in science scores. When considered by scientific discipline, mental folding uniquely predicted both physics and biology scores, and spatial scaling accounted for additional variance in biology and variance in chemistry scores. The children's embedded figures task (intrinsic-static spatial ability) only accounted for variance in chemistry scores. The patterns of association were consistent across the age range. Spatial skills, particularly mental folding, spatial scaling, and disembedding, are predictive of 7- to 11-year-olds' science achievement. These skills make a similar contribution to performance for each age group. © 2018 The Authors. British Journal of Education Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Psychological Society.

Predicting spatial spread of rabies in skunk populations using surveillance data reported by the public

PubMed Central

Streicker, Daniel G.; Fischer, Justin W.; VerCauteren, Kurt C.; Gilbert, Amy T.

2017-01-01

Background Prevention and control of wildlife disease invasions relies on the ability to predict spatio-temporal dynamics and understand the role of factors driving spread rates, such as seasonality and transmission distance. Passive disease surveillance (i.e., case reports by public) is a common method of monitoring emergence of wildlife diseases, but can be challenging to interpret due to spatial biases and limitations in data quantity and quality. Methodology/Principal findings We obtained passive rabies surveillance data from dead striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) in an epizootic in northern Colorado, USA. We developed a dynamic patch-occupancy model which predicts spatio-temporal spreading while accounting for heterogeneous sampling. We estimated the distance travelled per transmission event, direction of invasion, rate of spatial spread, and effects of infection density and season. We also estimated mean transmission distance and rates of spatial spread using a phylogeographic approach on a subsample of viral sequences from the same epizootic. Both the occupancy and phylogeographic approaches predicted similar rates of spatio-temporal spread. Estimated mean transmission distances were 2.3 km (95% Highest Posterior Density (HPD95): 0.02, 11.9; phylogeographic) and 3.9 km (95% credible intervals (CI95): 1.4, 11.3; occupancy). Estimated rates of spatial spread in km/year were: 29.8 (HPD95: 20.8, 39.8; phylogeographic, branch velocity, homogenous model), 22.6 (HPD95: 15.3, 29.7; phylogeographic, diffusion rate, homogenous model) and 21.1 (CI95: 16.7, 25.5; occupancy). Initial colonization probability was twice as high in spring relative to fall. Conclusions/Significance Skunk-to-skunk transmission was primarily local (< 4 km) suggesting that if interventions were needed, they could be applied at the wave front. Slower viral invasions of skunk rabies in western USA compared to a similar epizootic in raccoons in the eastern USA implies host species or landscape factors underlie the dynamics of rabies invasions. Our framework provides a straightforward method for estimating rates of spatial spread of wildlife diseases. PMID:28759576

Stochastic Spatial Models in Ecology: A Statistical Physics Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pigolotti, Simone; Cencini, Massimo; Molina, Daniel; Muñoz, Miguel A.

2018-07-01

Ecosystems display a complex spatial organization. Ecologists have long tried to characterize them by looking at how different measures of biodiversity change across spatial scales. Ecological neutral theory has provided simple predictions accounting for general empirical patterns in communities of competing species. However, while neutral theory in well-mixed ecosystems is mathematically well understood, spatial models still present several open problems, limiting the quantitative understanding of spatial biodiversity. In this review, we discuss the state of the art in spatial neutral theory. We emphasize the connection between spatial ecological models and the physics of non-equilibrium phase transitions and how concepts developed in statistical physics translate in population dynamics, and vice versa. We focus on non-trivial scaling laws arising at the critical dimension D = 2 of spatial neutral models, and their relevance for biological populations inhabiting two-dimensional environments. We conclude by discussing models incorporating non-neutral effects in the form of spatial and temporal disorder, and analyze how their predictions deviate from those of purely neutral theories.

Stochastic Spatial Models in Ecology: A Statistical Physics Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pigolotti, Simone; Cencini, Massimo; Molina, Daniel; Muñoz, Miguel A.

2017-11-01

Ecosystems display a complex spatial organization. Ecologists have long tried to characterize them by looking at how different measures of biodiversity change across spatial scales. Ecological neutral theory has provided simple predictions accounting for general empirical patterns in communities of competing species. However, while neutral theory in well-mixed ecosystems is mathematically well understood, spatial models still present several open problems, limiting the quantitative understanding of spatial biodiversity. In this review, we discuss the state of the art in spatial neutral theory. We emphasize the connection between spatial ecological models and the physics of non-equilibrium phase transitions and how concepts developed in statistical physics translate in population dynamics, and vice versa. We focus on non-trivial scaling laws arising at the critical dimension D = 2 of spatial neutral models, and their relevance for biological populations inhabiting two-dimensional environments. We conclude by discussing models incorporating non-neutral effects in the form of spatial and temporal disorder, and analyze how their predictions deviate from those of purely neutral theories.

Spatial representation of organic carbon and active-layer thickness of high latitude soils in CMIP5 earth system models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mishra, Umakant; Drewniak, Beth; Jastrow, Julie D.

Soil properties such as soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and active-layer thickness are used in earth system models (F.SMs) to predict anthropogenic and climatic impacts on soil carbon dynamics, future changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and associated climate changes in the permafrost regions. Accurate representation of spatial and vertical distribution of these soil properties in ESMs is a prerequisite for redudng existing uncertainty in predicting carbon-climate feedbacks. We compared the spatial representation of SOC stocks and active-layer thicknesses predicted by the coupled Modellntercomparison Project Phase 5 { CMIP5) ESMs with those predicted from geospatial predictions, based on observation datamore » for the state of Alaska, USA. For the geospatial modeling. we used soil profile observations {585 for SOC stocks and 153 for active-layer thickness) and environmental variables (climate, topography, land cover, and surficial geology types) and generated fine-resolution (50-m spatial resolution) predictions of SOC stocks (to 1-m depth) and active-layer thickness across Alaska. We found large inter-quartile range (2.5-5.5 m) in predicted active-layer thickness of CMIP5 modeled results and small inter-quartile range (11.5-22 kg m-2) in predicted SOC stocks. The spatial coefficient of variability of active-layer thickness and SOC stocks were lower in CMIP5 predictions compared to our geospatial estimates when gridded at similar spatial resolutions (24.7 compared to 30% and 29 compared to 38%, respectively). However, prediction errors. when calculated for independent validation sites, were several times larger in ESM predictions compared to geospatial predictions. Primaly factors leading to observed differences were ( 1) lack of spatial heterogeneity in ESM predictions, (2) differences in assumptions concerning environmental controls, and (3) the absence of pedogenic processes in ESM model structures. Our results suggest that efforts to incorporate these factors in F.SMs should reduce current uncertainties associated with ESM predictions of carbon-climate feedbacks.« less

Integrating Map Algebra and Statistical Modeling for Spatio- Temporal Analysis of Monthly Mean Daily Incident Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) over a Complex Terrain.

PubMed

Evrendilek, Fatih

2007-12-12

This study aims at quantifying spatio-temporal dynamics of monthly mean dailyincident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) over a vast and complex terrain such asTurkey. The spatial interpolation method of universal kriging, and the combination ofmultiple linear regression (MLR) models and map algebra techniques were implemented togenerate surface maps of PAR with a grid resolution of 500 x 500 m as a function of fivegeographical and 14 climatic variables. Performance of the geostatistical and MLR modelswas compared using mean prediction error (MPE), root-mean-square prediction error(RMSPE), average standard prediction error (ASE), mean standardized prediction error(MSPE), root-mean-square standardized prediction error (RMSSPE), and adjustedcoefficient of determination (R² adj. ). The best-fit MLR- and universal kriging-generatedmodels of monthly mean daily PAR were validated against an independent 37-year observeddataset of 35 climate stations derived from 160 stations across Turkey by the Jackknifingmethod. The spatial variability patterns of monthly mean daily incident PAR were moreaccurately reflected in the surface maps created by the MLR-based models than in thosecreated by the universal kriging method, in particular, for spring (May) and autumn(November). The MLR-based spatial interpolation algorithms of PAR described in thisstudy indicated the significance of the multifactor approach to understanding and mappingspatio-temporal dynamics of PAR for a complex terrain over meso-scales.

A dynamical systems approach to studying midlatitude weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messori, Gabriele; Caballero, Rodrigo; Faranda, Davide

2017-04-01

Extreme weather occurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. The ability to predict these events is therefore a topic of crucial importance. Here we propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We show that simple dynamical systems metrics can be used to identify sets of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns with similar spatial structure and temporal evolution on time scales of several days to a week. In regions where these patterns favor extreme weather, they afford a particularly good predictability of the extremes. We specifically test this technique on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, where it provides predictability of large-scale wintertime surface temperature extremes in Europe up to 1 week in advance.

How spatial abilities and dynamic visualizations interplay when learning functional anatomy with 3D anatomical models.

PubMed

Berney, Sandra; Bétrancourt, Mireille; Molinari, Gaëlle; Hoyek, Nady

2015-01-01

The emergence of dynamic visualizations of three-dimensional (3D) models in anatomy curricula may be an adequate solution for spatial difficulties encountered with traditional static learning, as they provide direct visualization of change throughout the viewpoints. However, little research has explored the interplay between learning material presentation formats, spatial abilities, and anatomical tasks. First, to understand the cognitive challenges a novice learner would be faced with when first exposed to 3D anatomical content, a six-step cognitive task analysis was developed. Following this, an experimental study was conducted to explore how presentation formats (dynamic vs. static visualizations) support learning of functional anatomy, and affect subsequent anatomical tasks derived from the cognitive task analysis. A second aim was to investigate the interplay between spatial abilities (spatial visualization and spatial relation) and presentation formats when the functional anatomy of a 3D scapula and the associated shoulder flexion movement are learned. Findings showed no main effect of the presentation formats on performances, but revealed the predictive influence of spatial visualization and spatial relation abilities on performance. However, an interesting interaction between presentation formats and spatial relation ability for a specific anatomical task was found. This result highlighted the influence of presentation formats when spatial abilities are involved as well as the differentiated influence of spatial abilities on anatomical tasks. © 2015 American Association of Anatomists.

Soliton triads ensemble in frequency conversion: from inverse scattering theory to experimental observation.

PubMed

Baronio, Fabio; Andreana, Marco; Conforti, Matteo; Manili, Gabriele; Couderc, Vincent; De Angelis, Costantino; Barthélémy, Alain

2011-07-04

We consider the spectral theory of three-wave interactions to predict the initiation, formation and dynamics of an ensemble of bright-dark-bright soliton triads in frequency conversion processes. Spatial observation of non-interacting triads ensemble in a KTP crystal confirms theoretical prediction and numerical simulations.

Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago

PubMed Central

Chalmandrier, Loïc; Albouy, Camille; Descombes, Patrice; Sandel, Brody; Faurby, Soren; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2018-01-01

Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns. PMID:29657753

Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago.

PubMed

Chalmandrier, Loïc; Albouy, Camille; Descombes, Patrice; Sandel, Brody; Faurby, Soren; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Pellissier, Loïc

2018-03-01

Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns.

Study of Earthquake Disaster Prediction System of Langfang city Based on GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Meng; Zhang, Dian; Li, Pan; Zhang, YunHui; Zhang, RuoFei

2017-07-01

In this paper, according to the status of China’s need to improve the ability of earthquake disaster prevention, this paper puts forward the implementation plan of earthquake disaster prediction system of Langfang city based on GIS. Based on the GIS spatial database, coordinate transformation technology, GIS spatial analysis technology and PHP development technology, the seismic damage factor algorithm is used to predict the damage of the city under different intensity earthquake disaster conditions. The earthquake disaster prediction system of Langfang city is based on the B / S system architecture. Degree and spatial distribution and two-dimensional visualization display, comprehensive query analysis and efficient auxiliary decision-making function to determine the weak earthquake in the city and rapid warning. The system has realized the transformation of the city’s earthquake disaster reduction work from static planning to dynamic management, and improved the city’s earthquake and disaster prevention capability.

Improving predictions of large scale soil carbon dynamics: Integration of fine-scale hydrological and biogeochemical processes, scaling, and benchmarking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Dwivedi, D.; Ghimire, B.; Hoffman, F. M.; Pau, G. S. H.; Randerson, J. T.; Shen, C.; Tang, J.; Zhu, Q.

2015-12-01

Numerical model representations of decadal- to centennial-scale soil-carbon dynamics are a dominant cause of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Recent attempts by some Earth System Model (ESM) teams to integrate previously unrepresented soil processes (e.g., explicit microbial processes, abiotic interactions with mineral surfaces, vertical transport), poor performance of many ESM land models against large-scale and experimental manipulation observations, and complexities associated with spatial heterogeneity highlight the nascent nature of our community's ability to accurately predict future soil carbon dynamics. I will present recent work from our group to develop a modeling framework to integrate pore-, column-, watershed-, and global-scale soil process representations into an ESM (ACME), and apply the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package for evaluation. At the column scale and across a wide range of sites, observed depth-resolved carbon stocks and their 14C derived turnover times can be explained by a model with explicit representation of two microbial populations, a simple representation of mineralogy, and vertical transport. Integrating soil and plant dynamics requires a 'process-scaling' approach, since all aspects of the multi-nutrient system cannot be explicitly resolved at ESM scales. I will show that one approach, the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation, improves predictions of forest nitrogen and phosphorus experimental manipulations and leads to very different global soil carbon predictions. Translating model representations from the site- to ESM-scale requires a spatial scaling approach that either explicitly resolves the relevant processes, or more practically, accounts for fine-resolution dynamics at coarser scales. To that end, I will present recent watershed-scale modeling work that applies reduced order model methods to accurately scale fine-resolution soil carbon dynamics to coarse-resolution simulations. Finally, we contend that creating believable soil carbon predictions requires a robust, transparent, and community-available benchmarking framework. I will present an ILAMB evaluation of several of the above-mentioned approaches in ACME, and attempt to motivate community adoption of this evaluation approach.

Synchrony, waves and ripple in spatially coupled Kuramoto oscillators with Mexican hat connectivity.

PubMed

Heitmann, Stewart; Ermentrout, G Bard

2015-06-01

Spatiotemporal waves of synchronized activity are known to arise in oscillatory neural networks with lateral inhibitory coupling. How such patterns respond to dynamic changes in coupling strength is largely unexplored. The present study uses analysis and simulation to investigate the evolution of wave patterns when the strength of lateral inhibition is varied dynamically. Neural synchronization was modeled by a spatial ring of Kuramoto oscillators with Mexican hat lateral coupling. Broad bands of coexisting stable wave solutions were observed at all levels of inhibition. The stability of these waves was formally analyzed in both the infinite ring and the finite ring. The broad range of multi-stability predicted hysteresis in transitions between neighboring wave solutions when inhibition is slowly varied. Numerical simulation confirmed the predicted transitions when inhibition was ramped down from a high initial value. However, non-wave solutions emerged from the uniform solution when inhibition was ramped upward from zero. These solutions correspond to spatially periodic deviations of phase that we call ripple states. Numerical continuation showed that stable ripple states emerge from synchrony via a supercritical pitchfork bifurcation. The normal form of this bifurcation was derived analytically, and its predictions compared against the numerical results. Ripple states were also found to bifurcate from wave solutions, but these were locally unstable. Simulation also confirmed the existence of hysteresis and ripple states in two spatial dimensions. Our findings show that spatial synchronization patterns can remain structurally stable despite substantial changes in network connectivity.

Microclimate predicts within-season distribution dynamics of montane forest birds

Treesearch

Sarah J.K. Frey; Adam S. Hadley; Matthew G. Betts; Mark Robertson

2016-01-01

Aim: Climate changes are anticipated to have pervasive negative effects on biodiversity and are expected to necessitate widespread range shifts or contractions. Such projections are based upon the assumptions that (1) species respond primarily to broad-scale climatic regimes, or (2) that variation in climate at fine spatial scales is less relevant at coarse spatial...

Estimating long-wavelength dynamic topographic change of passive continental margins since the Early Cretaceous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Dietmar; Hassan, Rakib; Gurnis, Michael; Flament, Nicolas; Williams, Simon

2017-04-01

The influence of mantle convection on dynamic topographic change along continental margins is difficult to unravel, because their stratigraphic record is dominated by tectonic subsidence caused by rifting. Yet, dynamic topography can potentially introduce significant depth anomalies along passive margins, influencing their water depth, sedimentary environments and geohistory. Here we follow a three-fold approach to estimate changes in dynamic topography along both continental interiors and passive margins based on a set of seven global mantle convection models. These models include different methodologies (forward and hybrid backward-forward methods), different plate reconstructions and alternative mantle rheologies. We demonstrate that a geodynamic forward model that includes adiabatic heating in addition to internal heating from radiogenic sources, and a mantle viscosity profile with a gradual increase in viscosity below the mantle transition zone, provides a greatly improved match to the spectral range of residual topography end-members as compared with previous models at very long wavelengths (spherical degrees 2-3). We combine global sea level estimates with predicted surface dynamic topography to evaluate the match between predicted continental flooding patterns and published paleo-coastlines by comparing predicted versus geologically reconstructed land fractions and spatial overlaps of flooded regions for individual continents since 140 Ma. Modelled versus geologically reconstructed land fractions match within 10% for most models, and the spatial overlaps of inundated regions are mostly between 85% and 100% for the Cenozoic, dropping to about 75-100% in the Cretaceous. We categorise the evolution of modelled dynamic topography in both continental interiors and along passive margins using cluster analysis to investigate how clusters of similar dynamic topography time series are distributed spatially. A subdivision of four clusters is found to best reveal end-members of dynamic topography evolution along passive margins and their hinterlands, differentiating topographic stability, long-term pronounced subsidence, initial stability over a dynamic high followed by moderate subsidence and regions that are relatively proximal to subduction zones with varied dynamic topography histories. Along passive continental margins the most commonly observed process is a gradual move from dynamic highs towards lows during the fragmentation of Pangea, reflecting that many passive margins now overly slabs sinking in the lower mantle. Our best-fit model results in up to 500 ±150 m of total dynamic subsidence of continental interiors while along passive margins the maximum predicted dynamic topographic change over 140 million years is about 350 ±150 m of subsidence. Models with plumes exhibit clusters of transient passive margin uplift of about 200 ±200m. The good overall match between predicted dynamic topography and geologically mapped paleo-coastlines makes a convincing case that mantle-driven topographic change is a critical component of relative sea level change, and one of the main driving forces generating the observed geometries and timings of large-scale shifts in paleo-coastlines.

Programmed coherent coupling in a synthetic DNA-based excitonic circuit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boulais, Étienne; Sawaya, Nicolas P. D.; Veneziano, Rémi; Andreoni, Alessio; Banal, James L.; Kondo, Toru; Mandal, Sarthak; Lin, Su; Schlau-Cohen, Gabriela S.; Woodbury, Neal W.; Yan, Hao; Aspuru-Guzik, Alán; Bathe, Mark

2018-02-01

Natural light-harvesting systems spatially organize densely packed chromophore aggregates using rigid protein scaffolds to achieve highly efficient, directed energy transfer. Here, we report a synthetic strategy using rigid DNA scaffolds to similarly program the spatial organization of densely packed, discrete clusters of cyanine dye aggregates with tunable absorption spectra and strongly coupled exciton dynamics present in natural light-harvesting systems. We first characterize the range of dye-aggregate sizes that can be templated spatially by A-tracts of B-form DNA while retaining coherent energy transfer. We then use structure-based modelling and quantum dynamics to guide the rational design of higher-order synthetic circuits consisting of multiple discrete dye aggregates within a DX-tile. These programmed circuits exhibit excitonic transport properties with prominent circular dichroism, superradiance, and fast delocalized exciton transfer, consistent with our quantum dynamics predictions. This bottom-up strategy offers a versatile approach to the rational design of strongly coupled excitonic circuits using spatially organized dye aggregates for use in coherent nanoscale energy transport, artificial light-harvesting, and nanophotonics.

The Spatial Structure of Planform Migration - Curvature Relation of Meandering Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guneralp, I.; Rhoads, B. L.

2005-12-01

Planform dynamics of meandering rivers have been of fundamental interest to fluvial geomorphologists and engineers because of the intriguing complexity of these dynamics, the role of planform change in floodplain development and landscape evolution, and the economic and social consequences of bank erosion and channel migration. Improved understanding of the complex spatial structure of planform change and capacity to predict these changes are important for effective stream management, engineering and restoration. The planform characteristics of a meandering river channel are integral to its planform dynamics. Active meandering rivers continually change their positions and shapes as a consequence of hydraulic forces exerted on the channel banks and bed, but as the banks and bed change through sediment transport, so do the hydraulic forces. Thus far, this complex feedback between form and process is incompletely understood, despite the fact that the characteristics and the dynamics of meandering rivers have been studied extensively. Current theoretical models aimed at predicting planform dynamics relate rates of meander migration to local and upstream planform curvature where weighting of the influence of curvature on migration rate decays exponentially over distance. This theoretical relation, however, has not been rigorously evaluated empirically. Furthermore, although models based on exponential-weighting of curvature effects yield fairly realistic predictions of meander migration, such models are incapable of reproducing complex forms of bend development, such as double heading or compound looping. This study presents the development of a new methodology based on parametric cubic spline interpolation for the characterization of channel planform and the planform curvature of meandering rivers. The use of continuous mathematical functions overcomes the reliance on bend-averaged values or piece-wise discrete approximations of planform curvature - a major limitation of previous studies. Continuous curvature series can be related to measured rates of lateral migration to explore empirically the relationship between spatially extended curvature and local bend migration. The methodology is applied to a study reach along a highly sinuous section of the Embarras River in Illinois, USA, which contains double-headed asymmetrical loops. To identify patterns of channel planform and rates of lateral migration for a study reach along Embarrass River in central Illinois, geographical information systems analysis of historical aerial photography over a period from 1936 to 1998 was conducted. Results indicate that parametric cubic spline interpolation provides excellent characterization of the complex planforms and planform curvatures of meandering rivers. The findings also indicate that the spatial structure of migration rate-curvature relation may be more complex than a simple exponential distance-decay function. The study represents a first step toward unraveling the spatial structure of planform evolution of meandering rivers and for developing models of planform dynamics that accurately relate spatially extended patterns of channel curvature to local rates of lateral migration. Such knowledge is vital for improving the capacity to accurately predict planform change of meandering rivers.

High resolution tempo-spatial ozone prediction with SVM and LSTM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, D.; Zhang, Y.; Qu, Z.; Sadighi, K.; Coffey, E.; LIU, Q.; Hannigan, M.; Henze, D. K.; Dick, R.; Shang, L.; Lv, Q.

2017-12-01

To investigate and predict the exposure of ozone and other pollutants in urban areas, we utilize data from various infrastructures including EPA, NOAA and RIITS from government of Los Angeles and construct statistical models to conduct ozone concentration prediction in Los Angeles areas at finer spatial and temporal granularity. Our work involves cyber data such as traffic, roads and population data as features for prediction. Two statistical models, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Long Short-term Memory (LSTM, deep learning method) are used for prediction. . Our experiments show that kernelized SVM gains better prediction performance when taking traffic counts, road density and population density as features, with a prediction RMSE of 7.99 ppb for all-time ozone and 6.92 ppb for peak-value ozone. With simulated NOx from Chemical Transport Model(CTM) as features, SVM generates even better prediction performance, with a prediction RMSE of 6.69ppb. We also build LSTM, which has shown great advantages at dealing with temporal sequences, to predict ozone concentration by treating ozone concentration as spatial-temporal sequences. Trained by ozone concentration measurements from the 13 EPA stations in LA area, the model achieves 4.45 ppb RMSE. Besides, we build a variant of this model which adds spatial dynamics into the model in the form of transition matrix that reveals new knowledge on pollutant transition. The forgetting gate of the trained LSTM is consistent with the delay effect of ozone concentration and the trained transition matrix shows spatial consistency with the common direction of winds in LA area.

Groundwater–surface water mixing shifts ecological assembly processes and stimulates organic carbon turnover

DOE PAGES

Stegen, James C.; Fredrickson, James K.; Wilkins, Michael J.; ...

2016-04-07

Environmental transition zones are associated with geochemical gradients that overcome energy limitations to microbial metabolism, resulting in biogeochemical hot spots and moments. Riverine systems where groundwater mixes with surface water (the hyporheic zone) are spatially complex and temporally dynamic, making development of predictive models challenging. Spatial and temporal variations in hyporheic zone microbial communities are a key, but understudied, component of riverine biogeochemical function. To investigate the coupling among groundwater-surface water mixing, microbial communities, and biogeochemistry we applied ecological theory, aqueous biogeochemistry, DNA sequencing, and ultra-high resolution organic carbon profiling to field samples collected across times and locations representing amore » broad range of mixing conditions. Mixing of groundwater and surface water resulted in a shift from transport-driven stochastic dynamics to a deterministic microbial structure associated with elevated biogeochemical rates. While the dynamics of the hyporheic make predictive modeling a challenge, we provide new knowledge that can improve the tractability of such models.« less

Fragility of foot process morphology in kidney podocytes arises from chaotic spatial propagation of cytoskeletal instability

PubMed Central

Deerinck, Thomas J.; Chen, Yibang; He, John C.; Ellisman, Mark H.; Iyengar, Ravi

2017-01-01

Kidney podocytes’ function depends on fingerlike projections (foot processes) that interdigitate with those from neighboring cells to form the glomerular filtration barrier. The integrity of the barrier depends on spatial control of dynamics of actin cytoskeleton in the foot processes. We determined how imbalances in regulation of actin cytoskeletal dynamics could result in pathological morphology. We obtained 3-D electron microscopy images of podocytes and used quantitative features to build dynamical models to investigate how regulation of actin dynamics within foot processes controls local morphology. We find that imbalances in regulation of actin bundling lead to chaotic spatial patterns that could impair the foot process morphology. Simulation results are consistent with experimental observations for cytoskeletal reconfiguration through dysregulated RhoA or Rac1, and they predict compensatory mechanisms for biochemical stability. We conclude that podocyte morphology, optimized for filtration, is intrinsically fragile, whereby local transient biochemical imbalances may lead to permanent morphological changes associated with pathophysiology. PMID:28301477

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Swati, F. N. U.; Stein, Michael L.

Regional climate models (RCMs) are a standard tool for downscaling climate forecasts to finer spatial scales. The evaluation of RCMs against observational data is an important step in building confidence in the use of RCMs for future prediction. In addition to model performance in climatological means and marginal distributions, a model’s ability to capture spatio-temporal relationships is important. This study develops two approaches: (1) spatial correlation/variogram for a range of spatial lags, with total monthly precipitation and non-seasonal precipitation components used to assess the spatial variations of precipitation; and (2) spatio-temporal correlation for a wide range of distances, directions, andmore » time lags, with daily precipitation occurrence used to detect the dynamic features of precipitation. These measures of spatial and spatio-temporal dependence are applied to a high-resolution RCM run and to the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) AMIP II reanalysis data (NCEP-R2), which provides initial and lateral boundary conditions for the RCM. The RCM performs better than NCEP-R2 in capturing both the spatial variations of total and non-seasonal precipitation components and the spatio-temporal correlations of daily precipitation occurrences, which are related to dynamic behaviors of precipitating systems. The improvements are apparent not just at resolutions finer than that of NCEP-R2, but also when the RCM and observational data are aggregated to the resolution of NCEP-R2.« less

Assimilation of remote sensing observations into a sediment transport model of China's largest freshwater lake: spatial and temporal effects.

PubMed

Zhang, Peng; Chen, Xiaoling; Lu, Jianzhong; Zhang, Wei

2015-12-01

Numerical models are important tools that are used in studies of sediment dynamics in inland and coastal waters, and these models can now benefit from the use of integrated remote sensing observations. This study explores a scheme for assimilating remotely sensed suspended sediment (from charge-coupled device (CCD) images obtained from the Huanjing (HJ) satellite) into a two-dimensional sediment transport model of Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China. Optimal interpolation is used as the assimilation method, and model predictions are obtained by combining four remote sensing images. The parameters for optimal interpolation are determined through a series of assimilation experiments evaluating the sediment predictions based on field measurements. The model with assimilation of remotely sensed sediment reduces the root-mean-square error of the predicted sediment concentrations by 39.4% relative to the model without assimilation, demonstrating the effectiveness of the assimilation scheme. The spatial effect of assimilation is explored by comparing model predictions with remotely sensed sediment, revealing that the model with assimilation generates reasonable spatial distribution patterns of suspended sediment. The temporal effect of assimilation on the model's predictive capabilities varies spatially, with an average temporal effect of approximately 10.8 days. The current velocities which dominate the rate and direction of sediment transport most likely result in spatial differences in the temporal effect of assimilation on model predictions.

Satellite Microwave Remote Sensing for Environmental Modeling of Mosquito Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Chuang, Ting-Wu; Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Kimball, John S.; VanRoekel-Patton, Denise L.; Hildreth, Michael B.; Wimberly, Michael C.

2012-01-01

Environmental variability has important influences on mosquito life cycles and understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of mosquito populations is critical for mosquito control and vector-borne disease prevention. Meteorological data used for model-based predictions of mosquito abundance and life cycle dynamics are typically acquired from ground-based weather stations; however, data availability and completeness are often limited by sparse networks and resource availability. In contrast, environmental measurements from satellite remote sensing are more spatially continuous and can be retrieved automatically. This study compared environmental measurements from the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS (AMSR-E) and in situ weather station data to examine their ability to predict the abundance of two important mosquito species (Aedes vexans and Culex tarsalis) in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA from 2005 to 2010. The AMSR-E land parameters included daily surface water inundation fraction, surface air temperature, soil moisture, and microwave vegetation opacity. The AMSR-E derived models had better fits and higher forecasting accuracy than models based on weather station data despite the relatively coarse (25-km) spatial resolution of the satellite data. In the AMSR-E models, air temperature and surface water fraction were the best predictors of Aedes vexans, whereas air temperature and vegetation opacity were the best predictors of Cx. tarsalis abundance. The models were used to extrapolate spatial, seasonal, and interannual patterns of climatic suitability for mosquitoes across eastern South Dakota. Our findings demonstrate that environmental metrics derived from satellite passive microwave radiometry are suitable for predicting mosquito population dynamics and can potentially improve the effectiveness of mosquito-borne disease early warning systems. PMID:23049143

Measles on the Edge: Coastal Heterogeneities and Infection Dynamics

PubMed Central

Bharti, Nita; Xia, Yingcun; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

2008-01-01

Mathematical models can help elucidate the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics as well as the impact of control measures. The gravity model for directly transmitted diseases is currently one of the most parsimonious models for spatial epidemic spread. This model uses distance-weighted, population size-dependent coupling to estimate host movement and disease incidence in metapopulations. The model captures overall measles dynamics in terms of underlying human movement in pre-vaccination England and Wales (previously established). In spatial models, edges often present a special challenge. Therefore, to test the model's robustness, we analyzed gravity model incidence predictions for coastal cities in England and Wales. Results show that, although predictions are accurate for inland towns, they significantly underestimate coastal persistence. We examine incidence, outbreak seasonality, and public transportation records, to show that the model's inaccuracies stem from an underestimation of total contacts per individual along the coast. We rescue this predicted ‘edge effect’ by increasing coastal contacts to approximate the number of per capita inland contacts. These results illustrate the impact of ‘edge effects’ on epidemic metapopulations in general and illustrate directions for the refinement of spatiotemporal epidemic models. PMID:18398467

Using Climate Regionalization to Understand Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Precipitation Performance for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Regonda, Satish K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Rodell, Matthew

2016-01-01

Dynamically based seasonal forecasts are prone to systematic spatial biases due to imperfections in the underlying global climate model (GCM). This can result in low-forecast skill when the GCM misplaces teleconnections or fails to resolve geographic barriers, even if the prediction of large-scale dynamics is accurate. To characterize and address this issue, this study applies objective climate regionalization to identify discrepancies between the Climate Forecast SystemVersion 2 (CFSv2) and precipitation observations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Regionalization shows that CFSv2 1 month forecasts capture the general spatial character of warm season precipitation variability but that forecast regions systematically differ from observation in some transition zones. CFSv2 predictive skill for these misclassified areas is systematically reduced relative to correctly regionalized areas and CONUS as a whole. In these incorrectly regionalized areas, higher skill can be obtained by using a regional-scale forecast in place of the local grid cell prediction.

Geographic variation in forest composition and precipitation predict the synchrony of forest insect outbreaks

Treesearch

Kyle J. Haynes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Ottar N. Bjørnstad; Andrew J. Allstadt; Randall S. Morin

2018-01-01

Evaluating the causes of spatial synchrony in population dynamics in nature is notoriously difficult due to a lack of data and appropriate statistical methods. Here, we use a recently developed method, a multivariate extension of the local indicators of spatial autocorrelation statistic, to map geographic variation in the synchrony of gypsy moth outbreaks. Regression...

Predicted effects of gypsy moth defoliation and climate change on forest carbon dynamics in the New Jersey Pine Barrens

Treesearch

Alec M. Kretchun; Robert M. Scheller; Melissa S. Lucash; Kenneth L. Clark; John Hom; Steve Van Tuyl; Michael L. Fine

2014-01-01

Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to...

Linking 3D spatial models of fuels and fire: Effects of spatial heterogeneity on fire behavior

Treesearch

Russell A. Parsons; William E. Mell; Peter McCauley

2011-01-01

Crownfire endangers fire fighters and can have severe ecological consequences. Prediction of fire behavior in tree crowns is essential to informed decisions in fire management. Current methods used in fire management do not address variability in crown fuels. New mechanistic physics-based fire models address convective heat transfer with computational fluid dynamics (...

Spatial occurrence of a habitat-tracking saproxylic beetle inhabiting a managed forest landscape.

PubMed

Schroeder, L Martin; Ranius, Thomas; Ekbom, Barbara; Larsson, Stig

2007-04-01

Because of the dynamic nature of many managed habitats, proper evaluation of conservation efforts calls for models that take into account both spatial and temporal habitat dynamics. We develop a metapopulation model for successional-type systems, in which habitat quality changes over time in a predictable fashion. The occupancy and recruitment of the predatory saproxylic (dependent on dead wood) beetle Harminius undulatus was studied in a managed boreal forest landscape, covering 24,449 ha, in central Sweden. In a first step, we analyzed the beetle's occupancy pattern in relation to stand characteristics, and the amounts of present and past habitat in the surrounding landscape. Managed forest is suitable habitat when > or =60 years old, and immediately after cutting, but not between the ages of 10 and 60 years. The observed occupancy of H. undulatus was positively correlated with the stand's age as habitat. We used a metapopulation model to predict the current probability of occurrence in each forest stand, given the spatiotemporal distribution of suitable forest stands during the last 50 years. Metapopulation parameters were estimated by matching predicted spatial distributions with observed spatial distributions. The model predicted observed spatial distributions better than a similar model that assumed constant habitat quality of each forest stand. Thus, metapopulation models for successional-type systems, such as dead wood dependent organisms in managed forest landscapes, should include habitat dynamics. An estimated 82% of the landscape-wide recruitment took place in managed stands, which covered 87% of the forest area, in comparison with 18% in unmanaged stands, which covered 13% of the forest area. Among the managed stand types, > or =60-year-old stands and 3-7-year-old clear-cuttings contributed to 79% of the total recruitment while 8-59-year-old stands only contributed 3%. The results suggest the following guidelines to improve conditions for H. undulatus and other species with similar habitat requirements: (1) the proportion of the landscape constituted by younger stands should not be allowed to grow too large, (2) the rotation period of managed stands should not be allowed to be too short, and (3) dead wood should be retained and created at final cutting.

Optimal estimator model for human spatial orientation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Borah, J.; Young, L. R.; Curry, R. E.

1979-01-01

A model is being developed to predict pilot dynamic spatial orientation in response to multisensory stimuli. Motion stimuli are first processed by dynamic models of the visual, vestibular, tactile, and proprioceptive sensors. Central nervous system function is then modeled as a steady-state Kalman filter which blends information from the various sensors to form an estimate of spatial orientation. Where necessary, this linear central estimator has been augmented with nonlinear elements to reflect more accurately some highly nonlinear human response characteristics. Computer implementation of the model has shown agreement with several important qualitative characteristics of human spatial orientation, and it is felt that with further modification and additional experimental data the model can be improved and extended. Possible means are described for extending the model to better represent the active pilot with varying skill and work load levels.

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France

PubMed Central

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J. J.; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils. PMID:27808169

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France.

PubMed

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J J; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A

2016-11-03

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO 2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils.

Integrating real-time and manual monitored data to predict hillslope soil moisture dynamics with high spatio-temporal resolution using linear and non-linear models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture (') is a challenge that remains to be better understood. A trade-off exists between spatial coverage and temporal resolution when using the manual and real-time ' monitoring methods. This restricted the comprehensive and intensive examination of ' dynamic...

Nonrandom community assembly and high temporal turnover promote regional coexistence in tropics but not temperate zone.

PubMed

Freestone, Amy L; Inouye, Brian D

2015-01-01

A persistent challenge for ecologists is understanding the ecological mechanisms that maintain global patterns of biodiversity, particularly the latitudinal diversity gradient of peak species richness in the tropics. Spatial and temporal variation in community composition contribute to these patterns of biodiversity, but how this variation and its underlying processes change across latitude remains unresolved. Using a model system of sessile marine invertebrates across 25 degrees of latitude, from the temperate zone to the tropics, we tested the prediction that spatial and temporal patterns of taxonomic richness and composition, and the community assembly processes underlying these patterns, will differ across latitude. Specifically, we predicted that high beta diversity (spatial variation in composition) and high temporal turnover contribute to the high species richness of the tropics. Using a standardized experimental approach that controls for several confounding factors that hinder interpretation of prior studies, we present results that support our predictions. In the temperate zone, communities were more similar across spatial scales from centimeters to tens of kilometers and temporal scales up to one year than at lower latitudes. Since the patterns at northern latitudes were congruent with a null model, stochastic assembly processes are implicated. In contrast, the communities in the tropics were a dynamic spatial and temporal mosaic, with low similarity even across small spatial scales and high temporal turnover at both local and regional scales. Unlike the temperate zone, deterministic community assembly processes such as predation likely contributed to the high beta diversity in the tropics. Our results suggest that community assembly processes and temporal dynamics vary across latitude and help structure and maintain latitudinal patterns of diversity.

Local and global dynamical effects of dark energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chernin, A. D.

Local expansion flows of galaxies were discovered by Lemaitre and Hubble in 1927-29 at distances of less than 25-30 Mpc. The global expansion of the Universe as a whole was predicted theoretically by Friedmann in 1922-24 and discovered in the 1990s in observations at truly cosmological distances of more than 1 000 Mpc. On all these spatial scales, the flows follow a (nearly) linear velocity-distance relation, known now as Hubble's law. This similarity of local and global phenomena is due to the universal dark energy antigravity which dominates the cosmic dynamics on both local and global spatial scales.

Predictability of weather and climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model: A dynamical systems approach. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nese, Jon M.

1989-01-01

A dynamical systems approach is used to quantify the instantaneous and time-averaged predictability of a low-order moist general circulation model. Specifically, the effects on predictability of incorporating an active ocean circulation, implementing annual solar forcing, and asynchronously coupling the ocean and atmosphere are evaluated. The predictability and structure of the model attractors is compared using the Lyapunov exponents, the local divergence rates, and the correlation, fractal, and Lyapunov dimensions. The Lyapunov exponents measure the average rate of growth of small perturbations on an attractor, while the local divergence rates quantify phase-spatial variations of predictability. These local rates are exploited to efficiently identify and distinguish subtle differences in predictability among attractors. In addition, the predictability of monthly averaged and yearly averaged states is investigated by using attractor reconstruction techniques.

Contributions of Dynamic Systems Theory to Cognitive Development

PubMed Central

Spencer, John P.; Austin, Andrew; Schutte, Anne R.

2015-01-01

This paper examines the contributions of dynamic systems theory to the field of cognitive development, focusing on modeling using dynamic neural fields. A brief overview highlights the contributions of dynamic systems theory and the central concepts of dynamic field theory (DFT). We then probe empirical predictions and findings generated by DFT around two examples—the DFT of infant perseverative reaching that explains the Piagetian A-not-B error, and the DFT of spatial memory that explain changes in spatial cognition in early development. A systematic review of the literature around these examples reveals that computational modeling is having an impact on empirical research in cognitive development; however, this impact does not extend to neural and clinical research. Moreover, there is a tendency for researchers to interpret models narrowly, anchoring them to specific tasks. We conclude on an optimistic note, encouraging both theoreticians and experimentalists to work toward a more theory-driven future. PMID:26052181

Large Variations in HIV-1 Viral Load Explained by Shifting-Mosaic Metapopulation Dynamics

PubMed Central

Lythgoe, Katrina A.; Blanquart, François

2016-01-01

The viral population of HIV-1, like many pathogens that cause systemic infection, is structured and differentiated within the body. The dynamics of cellular immune trafficking through the blood and within compartments of the body has also received wide attention. Despite these advances, mathematical models, which are widely used to interpret and predict viral and immune dynamics in infection, typically treat the infected host as a well-mixed homogeneous environment. Here, we present mathematical, analytical, and computational results that demonstrate that consideration of the spatial structure of the viral population within the host radically alters predictions of previous models. We study the dynamics of virus replication and cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) within a metapopulation of spatially segregated patches, representing T cell areas connected by circulating blood and lymph. The dynamics of the system depend critically on the interaction between CTLs and infected cells at the within-patch level. We show that for a wide range of parameters, the system admits an unexpected outcome called the shifting-mosaic steady state. In this state, the whole body’s viral population is stable over time, but the equilibrium results from an underlying, highly dynamic process of local infection and clearance within T-cell centers. Notably, and in contrast to previous models, this new model can explain the large differences in set-point viral load (SPVL) observed between patients and their distribution, as well as the relatively low proportion of cells infected at any one time, and alters the predicted determinants of viral load variation. PMID:27706164

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Pacific Oyster Hemolymph Microbiota across Multiple Scales

PubMed Central

Lokmer, Ana; Goedknegt, M. Anouk; Thieltges, David W.; Fiorentino, Dario; Kuenzel, Sven; Baines, John F.; Wegner, K. Mathias

2016-01-01

Unveiling the factors and processes that shape the dynamics of host associated microbial communities (microbiota) under natural conditions is an important part of understanding and predicting an organism's response to a changing environment. The microbiota is shaped by host (i.e., genetic) factors as well as by the biotic and abiotic environment. Studying natural variation of microbial community composition in multiple host genetic backgrounds across spatial as well as temporal scales represents a means to untangle this complex interplay. Here, we combined a spatially-stratified with a longitudinal sampling scheme within differentiated host genetic backgrounds by reciprocally transplanting Pacific oysters between two sites in the Wadden Sea (Sylt and Texel). To further differentiate contingent site from host genetic effects, we repeatedly sampled the same individuals over a summer season to examine structure, diversity and dynamics of individual hemolymph microbiota following experimental removal of resident microbiota by antibiotic treatment. While a large proportion of microbiome variation could be attributed to immediate environmental conditions, we observed persistent effects of antibiotic treatment and translocation suggesting that hemolymph microbial community dynamics is subject to within-microbiome interactions and host population specific factors. In addition, the analysis of spatial variation revealed that the within-site microenvironmental heterogeneity resulted in high small-scale variability, as opposed to large-scale (between-site) stability. Similarly, considerable within-individual temporal variability was in contrast with the overall temporal stability at the site level. Overall, our longitudinal, spatially-stratified sampling design revealed that variation in hemolymph microbiota is strongly influenced by site and immediate environmental conditions, whereas internal microbiome dynamics and oyster-related factors add to their long-term stability. The combination of small and large scale resolution of spatial and temporal observations therefore represents a crucial but underused tool to study host-associated microbiome dynamics. PMID:27630625

Time-specific ecological niche modeling predicts spatial dynamics of vector insects and human dengue cases.

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Martínez-Campos, Carmen; Nakazawa, Yoshinori; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique

2005-09-01

Numerous human diseases-malaria, dengue, yellow fever and leishmaniasis, to name a few-are transmitted by insect vectors with brief life cycles and biting activity that varies in both space and time. Although the general geographic distributions of these epidemiologically important species are known, the spatiotemporal variation in their emergence and activity remains poorly understood. We used ecological niche modeling via a genetic algorithm to produce time-specific predictive models of monthly distributions of Aedes aegypti in Mexico in 1995. Significant predictions of monthly mosquito activity and distributions indicate that predicting spatiotemporal dynamics of disease vector species is feasible; significant coincidence with human cases of dengue indicate that these dynamics probably translate directly into transmission of dengue virus to humans. This approach provides new potential for optimizing use of resources for disease prevention and remediation via automated forecasting of disease transmission risk.

Modeling a beaver population on the Prescott Peninsula, Massachusetts: Feasibility of LANDSAT as an input

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Finn, J. T.; Howard, R.

1981-01-01

A preliminary dynamic model of beaver spatial distribution and population growth was developed. The feasibility of locating beaver ponds on LANDSAT digital tapes, and of using this information to provide initial conditions of beaver spatial distribution for the model, and to validate model predictions is discussed. The techniques used to identify beaver ponds on LANDSAT are described.

Spatial glass transition temperature variations in polymer glass: application to a maltodextrin-water system.

PubMed

van Sleeuwen, Rutger M T; Zhang, Suying; Normand, Valéry

2012-03-12

A model was developed to predict spatial glass transition temperature (T(g)) distributions in glassy maltodextrin particles during transient moisture sorption. The simulation employed a numerical mass transfer model with a concentration dependent apparent diffusion coefficient (D(app)) measured using Dynamic Vapor Sorption. The mass average moisture content increase and the associated decrease in T(g) were successfully modeled over time. Large spatial T(g) variations were predicted in the particle, resulting in a temporary broadening of the T(g) region. Temperature modulated differential scanning calorimetry confirmed that the variation in T(g) in nonequilibrated samples was larger than in equilibrated samples. This experimental broadening was characterized by an almost doubling of the T(g) breadth compared to the start of the experiment. Upon reaching equilibrium, both the experimental and predicted T(g) breadth contracted back to their initial value.

Spatial and temporal synchrony in reptile population dynamics in variable environments.

PubMed

Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Nguyen, Vuong; Dickman, Chris R

2016-10-01

Resources are seldom distributed equally across space, but many species exhibit spatially synchronous population dynamics. Such synchrony suggests the operation of large-scale external drivers, such as rainfall or wildfire, or the influence of oasis sites that provide water, shelter, or other resources. However, testing the generality of these factors is not easy, especially in variable environments. Using a long-term dataset (13-22 years) from a large (8000 km(2)) study region in arid Central Australia, we tested firstly for regional synchrony in annual rainfall and the dynamics of six reptile species across nine widely separated sites. For species that showed synchronous spatial dynamics, we then used multivariate follow a multivariate auto-regressive state-space (MARSS) models to predict that regional rainfall would be positively associated with their populations. For asynchronous species, we used MARSS models to explore four other possible population structures: (1) populations were asynchronous, (2) differed between oasis and non-oasis sites, (3) differed between burnt and unburnt sites, or (4) differed between three sub-regions with different rainfall gradients. Only one species showed evidence of spatial population synchrony and our results provide little evidence that rainfall synchronizes reptile populations. The oasis or the wildfire hypotheses were the best-fitting models for the other five species. Thus, our six study species appear generally to be structured in space into one or two populations across the study region. Our findings suggest that for arid-dwelling reptile populations, spatial and temporal dynamics are structured by abiotic events, but individual responses to covariates at smaller spatial scales are complex and poorly understood.

Metapopulation responses to patch connectivity and quality are masked by successional habitat dynamics.

PubMed

Hodgson, Jenny A; Moilanen, Atte; Thomas, Chris D

2009-06-01

Many species have to track changes in the spatial distribution of suitable habitat from generation to generation. Understanding the dynamics of such species will likely require spatially explicit models, and patch-based metapopulation models are potentially appropriate. However, relatively little attention has been paid to developing metapopulation models that include habitat dynamics, and very little to testing the predictions of these models. We tested three predictions from theory about the differences between dynamic habitat metapopulations and their static counterparts using long-term survey data from two metapopulations of the butterfly Plebejus argus. As predicted, we showed first that the metapopulation inhabiting dynamic habitat had a lower level of habitat occupancy, which could not be accounted for by other differences between the metapopulations. Secondly, we found that patch occupancy did not significantly increase with increasing patch connectivity in dynamic habitat, whereas there was a strong positive connectivity-occupancy relationship in static habitat. Thirdly, we found no significant relationship between patch occupancy and patch quality in dynamic habitat, whereas there was a strong, positive quality-occupancy relationship in static habitat. Modeling confirmed that the differences in mean patch occupancy and connectivity-occupancy slope could arise without changing the species' metapopulation parameters-importantly, without changing the dependence of colonization upon connectivity. We found that, for a range of landscape scenarios, successional simulations always produced a lower connectivity-occupancy slope than comparable simulations with static patches, whether compared like-for-like or controlling for mean occupancy. We conclude that landscape-scale studies may often underestimate the importance of connectivity for species occurrence and persistence because habitat turnover can obscure the connectivity-occupancy relationship in commonly available snapshot data.

Visualization of spatial-temporal data based on 3D virtual scene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xianghong; Liu, Jiping; Wang, Yong; Bi, Junfang

2009-10-01

The main purpose of this paper is to realize the expression of the three-dimensional dynamic visualization of spatialtemporal data based on three-dimensional virtual scene, using three-dimensional visualization technology, and combining with GIS so that the people's abilities of cognizing time and space are enhanced and improved by designing dynamic symbol and interactive expression. Using particle systems, three-dimensional simulation, virtual reality and other visual means, we can simulate the situations produced by changing the spatial location and property information of geographical entities over time, then explore and analyze its movement and transformation rules by changing the interactive manner, and also replay history and forecast of future. In this paper, the main research object is the vehicle track and the typhoon path and spatial-temporal data, through three-dimensional dynamic simulation of its track, and realize its timely monitoring its trends and historical track replaying; according to visualization techniques of spatialtemporal data in Three-dimensional virtual scene, providing us with excellent spatial-temporal information cognitive instrument not only can add clarity to show spatial-temporal information of the changes and developments in the situation, but also be used for future development and changes in the prediction and deduction.

The importance of within-system spatial variation in drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts

PubMed Central

Fisher, J. A. D.; Casini, M.; Frank, K. T.; Möllmann, C.; Leggett, W. C.; Daskalov, G.

2015-01-01

Comparative analyses of the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems have led to differing hypotheses regarding the primary causes of observed regime shifts, while many ecosystems have apparently not undergone regime shifts. These varied responses may be partly explained by the decade-old recognition that within-system spatial heterogeneity in key climate and anthropogenic drivers may be important, as recent theoretical examinations have concluded that spatial heterogeneity in environmental characteristics may diminish the tendency for regime shifts. Here, we synthesize recent, empirical within-system spatio-temporal analyses of some temperate and subarctic large marine ecosystems in which regime shifts have (and have not) occurred. Examples from the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bengula Current, North Sea, Barents Sea and Eastern Scotian Shelf reveal the largely neglected importance of considering spatial variability in key biotic and abiotic influences and species movements in the context of evaluating and predicting regime shifts. We highlight both the importance of understanding the scale-dependent spatial dynamics of climate influences and key predator–prey interactions to unravel the dynamics of regime shifts, and the utility of spatial downscaling of proposed mechanisms (as evident in the North Sea and Barents Sea) as a means of evaluating hypotheses originally derived from among-system comparisons.

Modeling spatial-temporal dynamics of global wetlands: Comprehensive evaluation of a new sub-grid TOPMODEL parameterization and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Zimmermann, N. E.; Poulter, B.

2015-12-01

Simulations of the spatial-temporal dynamics of wetlands is key to understanding the role of wetland biogeochemistry under past and future climate variability. Hydrologic inundation models, such as TOPMODEL, are based on a fundamental parameter known as the compound topographic index (CTI) and provide a computationally cost-efficient approach to simulate global wetland dynamics. However, there remains large discrepancy in the implementations of TOPMODEL in land-surface models (LSMs) and thus their performance against observations. This study describes new improvements to TOPMODEL implementation and estimates of global wetland dynamics using the LPJ-wsl DGVM, and quantifies uncertainties by comparing three digital elevation model products (HYDRO1k, GMTED, and HydroSHEDS) at different spatial resolution and accuracy on simulated inundation dynamics. We found that calibrating TOPMODEL with a benchmark dataset can help to successfully predict the seasonal and interannual variations of wetlands, as well as improve the spatial distribution of wetlands to be consistent with inventories. The HydroSHEDS DEM, using a river-basin scheme for aggregating the CTI, shows best accuracy for capturing the spatio-temporal dynamics of wetland among three DEM products. This study demonstrates the feasibility to capture spatial heterogeneity of inundation and to estimate seasonal and interannual variations in wetland by coupling a hydrological module in LSMs with appropriate benchmark datasets. It additionally highlight the importance of an adequate understanding of topographic indices for simulating global wetlands and show the opportunity to converge wetland estimations in LSMs by identifying the uncertainty associated with existing wetland products.

Into the environment of mosquito-borne disease: A spatial analysis of vector distribution using traditional and remotely sensed methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Heidi E.

Spatially explicit information is increasingly available for infectious disease modeling. However, such information is reluctantly or inappropriately incorporated. My dissertation research uses spatially explicit data to assess relationships between landscape and mosquito species distribution and discusses challenges regarding accurate predictive risk modeling. The goal of my research is to use remotely sensed environmental information and spatial statistical methods to better understand mosquito-borne disease epidemiology for improvement of public health responses. In addition to reviewing the progress of spatial infectious disease modeling, I present four research projects. I begin by evaluating the biases in surveillance data and build up to predictive modeling of mosquito species presence. In the first study I explore how mosquito surveillance trap types influence estimations of mosquito populations. Then. I use county-based human surveillance data and landscape variables to identify risk factors for West Nile virus disease. The third study uses satellite-based vegetation indices to identify spatial variation among West Nile virus vectors in an urban area and relates the variability to virus transmission dynamics. Finally, I explore how information from three satellite sensors of differing spatial and spectral resolution can be used to identify and distinguish mosquito habitat across central Connecticut wetlands. Analyses presented here constitute improvements to the prediction of mosquito distribution and therefore identification of disease risk factors. Current methods for mosquito surveillance data collection are labor intensive and provide an extremely limited, incomplete picture of the species composition and abundance. Human surveillance data offers additional challenges with respect to reporting bias and resolution, but is nonetheless informative in identifying environmental risk factors and disease transmission dynamics. Remotely sensed imagery supports mosquito and human disease surveillance data by providing spatially explicit, line resolution information about environmental factors relevant to vector-borne disease processes. Together, surveillance and remotely sensed environmental data facilitate improved description and modeling of disease transmission. Remote sensing can be used to develop predictive maps of mosquito distribution in relation to disease risk. This has implications for increased accuracy of mosquito control efforts. The projects presented in this dissertation enhance current public health capacities by examining the applications of spatial modeling with respect to mosquito-borne disease.

The role of insect dispersal and migration in population processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rabb, R. L.; Stinner, R. E.

1979-01-01

Movement functions in the population dynamics of insects are discussed. Modes of movement, movement from a population view, and population patterns are described and predicted. A wide-area of spatial and temporal patterns are presented.

Decentralized Fuzzy MPC on Spatial Power Control of a Large PHWR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiangjie; Jiang, Di; Lee, Kwang Y.

2016-08-01

Reliable power control for stabilizing the spatial oscillations is quite important for ensuring the safe operation of a modern pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR), since these spatial oscillations can cause “flux tilting” in the reactor core. In this paper, a decentralized fuzzy model predictive control (DFMPC) is proposed for spatial control of PHWR. Due to the load dependent dynamics of the nuclear power plant, fuzzy modeling is used to approximate the nonlinear process. A fuzzy Lyapunov function and “quasi-min-max” strategy is utilized in designing the DFMPC, to reduce the conservatism. The plant-wide stability is achieved by the asymptotically positive realness constraint (APRC) for this decentralized MPC. The solving optimization problem is based on a receding horizon scheme involving the linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) technique. Through dynamic simulations, it is demonstrated that the designed DFMPC can effectively suppress spatial oscillations developed in PHWR, and further, shows the advantages over the typical parallel distributed compensation (PDC) control scheme.

A consistent hierarchy of generalized kinetic equation approximations to the master equation applied to surface catalysis.

PubMed

Herschlag, Gregory J; Mitran, Sorin; Lin, Guang

2015-06-21

We develop a hierarchy of approximations to the master equation for systems that exhibit translational invariance and finite-range spatial correlation. Each approximation within the hierarchy is a set of ordinary differential equations that considers spatial correlations of varying lattice distance; the assumption is that the full system will have finite spatial correlations and thus the behavior of the models within the hierarchy will approach that of the full system. We provide evidence of this convergence in the context of one- and two-dimensional numerical examples. Lower levels within the hierarchy that consider shorter spatial correlations are shown to be up to three orders of magnitude faster than traditional kinetic Monte Carlo methods (KMC) for one-dimensional systems, while predicting similar system dynamics and steady states as KMC methods. We then test the hierarchy on a two-dimensional model for the oxidation of CO on RuO2(110), showing that low-order truncations of the hierarchy efficiently capture the essential system dynamics. By considering sequences of models in the hierarchy that account for longer spatial correlations, successive model predictions may be used to establish empirical approximation of error estimates. The hierarchy may be thought of as a class of generalized phenomenological kinetic models since each element of the hierarchy approximates the master equation and the lowest level in the hierarchy is identical to a simple existing phenomenological kinetic models.

Cortical and subcortical predictive dynamics and learning during perception, cognition, emotion and action

PubMed Central

Grossberg, Stephen

2009-01-01

An intimate link exists between the predictive and learning processes in the brain. Perceptual/cognitive and spatial/motor processes use complementary predictive mechanisms to learn, recognize, attend and plan about objects in the world, determine their current value, and act upon them. Recent neural models clarify these mechanisms and how they interact in cortical and subcortical brain regions. The present paper reviews and synthesizes data and models of these processes, and outlines a unified theory of predictive brain processing. PMID:19528003

Using dynamic population simulations to extend resource selection analyses and prioritize habitats for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinrichs, Julie; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Schumaker, Nathan

2017-01-01

Prioritizing habitats for conservation is a challenging task, particularly for species with fluctuating populations and seasonally dynamic habitat needs. Although the use of resource selection models to identify and prioritize habitat for conservation is increasingly common, their ability to characterize important long-term habitats for dynamic populations are variable. To examine how habitats might be prioritized differently if resource selection was directly and dynamically linked with population fluctuations and movement limitations among seasonal habitats, we constructed a spatially explicit individual-based model for a dramatically fluctuating population requiring temporally varying resources. Using greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming as a case study, we used resource selection function maps to guide seasonal movement and habitat selection, but emergent population dynamics and simulated movement limitations modified long-term habitat occupancy. We compared priority habitats in RSF maps to long-term simulated habitat use. We examined the circumstances under which the explicit consideration of movement limitations, in combination with population fluctuations and trends, are likely to alter predictions of important habitats. In doing so, we assessed the future occupancy of protected areas under alternative population and habitat conditions. Habitat prioritizations based on resource selection models alone predicted high use in isolated parcels of habitat and in areas with low connectivity among seasonal habitats. In contrast, results based on more biologically-informed simulations emphasized central and connected areas near high-density populations, sometimes predicted to be low selection value. Dynamic models of habitat use can provide additional biological realism that can extend, and in some cases, contradict habitat use predictions generated from short-term or static resource selection analyses. The explicit inclusion of population dynamics and movement propensities via spatial simulation modeling frameworks may provide an informative means of predicting long-term habitat use, particularly for fluctuating populations with complex seasonal habitat needs. Importantly, our results indicate the possible need to consider habitat selection models as a starting point rather than the common end point for refining and prioritizing habitats for protection for cyclic and highly variable populations.

A model for the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent parameterized from the spatial variability of precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Weltzien, Ingunn H.

2016-09-01

Snow is an important and complicated element in hydrological modelling. The traditional catchment hydrological model with its many free calibration parameters, also in snow sub-models, is not a well-suited tool for predicting conditions for which it has not been calibrated. Such conditions include prediction in ungauged basins and assessing hydrological effects of climate change. In this study, a new model for the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE), parameterized solely from observed spatial variability of precipitation, is compared with the current snow distribution model used in the operational flood forecasting models in Norway. The former model uses a dynamic gamma distribution and is called Snow Distribution_Gamma, (SD_G), whereas the latter model has a fixed, calibrated coefficient of variation, which parameterizes a log-normal model for snow distribution and is called Snow Distribution_Log-Normal (SD_LN). The two models are implemented in the parameter parsimonious rainfall-runoff model Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD), and their capability for predicting runoff, SWE and snow-covered area (SCA) is tested and compared for 71 Norwegian catchments. The calibration period is 1985-2000 and validation period is 2000-2014. Results show that SDG better simulates SCA when compared with MODIS satellite-derived snow cover. In addition, SWE is simulated more realistically in that seasonal snow is melted out and the building up of "snow towers" and giving spurious positive trends in SWE, typical for SD_LN, is prevented. The precision of runoff simulations using SDG is slightly inferior, with a reduction in Nash-Sutcliffe and Kling-Gupta efficiency criterion of 0.01, but it is shown that the high precision in runoff prediction using SD_LN is accompanied with erroneous simulations of SWE.

Determination of the effect of source intensity profile on speckle contrast using coherent spatial frequency domain imaging

PubMed Central

Rice, Tyler B.; Konecky, Soren D.; Owen, Christopher; Choi, Bernard; Tromberg, Bruce J.

2012-01-01

Laser Speckle Imaging (LSI) is fast, noninvasive technique to image particle dynamics in scattering media such as biological tissue. While LSI measurements are independent of the overall intensity of the laser source, we find that spatial variations in the laser source profile can impact measured flow rates. This occurs due to differences in average photon path length across the profile, and is of significant concern because all lasers have some degree of natural Gaussian profile in addition to artifacts potentially caused by projecting optics. Two in vivo measurement are performed to show that flow rates differ based on location with respect to the beam profile. A quantitative analysis is then done through a speckle contrast forward model generated within a coherent Spatial Frequency Domain Imaging (cSFDI) formalism. The model predicts remitted speckle contrast as a function of spatial frequency, optical properties, and scattering dynamics. Comparison with experimental speckle contrast images were done using liquid phantoms with known optical properties for three common beam shapes. cSFDI is found to accurately predict speckle contrast for all beam shapes to within 5% root mean square error. Suggestions for improving beam homogeneity are given, including a widening of the natural beam Gaussian, proper diffusing glass spreading, and flat top shaping using microlens arrays. PMID:22741080

A multidimensional model of the effect of gravity on the spatial orientation of the monkey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merfeld, D. M.; Young, L. R.; Oman, C. M.; Shelhamer, M. J.

1993-01-01

A "sensory conflict" model of spatial orientation was developed. This mathematical model was based on concepts derived from observer theory, optimal observer theory, and the mathematical properties of coordinate rotations. The primary hypothesis is that the central nervous system of the squirrel monkey incorporates information about body dynamics and sensory dynamics to develop an internal model. The output of this central model (expected sensory afference) is compared to the actual sensory afference, with the difference defined as "sensory conflict." The sensory conflict information is, in turn, used to drive central estimates of angular velocity ("velocity storage"), gravity ("gravity storage"), and linear acceleration ("acceleration storage") toward more accurate values. The model successfully predicts "velocity storage" during rotation about an earth-vertical axis. The model also successfully predicts that the time constant of the horizontal vestibulo-ocular reflex is reduced and that the axis of eye rotation shifts toward alignment with gravity following postrotatory tilt. Finally, the model predicts the bias, modulation, and decay components that have been observed during off-vertical axis rotations (OVAR).

Stability of the thermodynamic equilibrium - A test of the validity of dynamic models as applied to gyroviscous perpendicular magnetohydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faghihi, Mustafa; Scheffel, Jan; Spies, Guenther O.

1988-05-01

Stability of the thermodynamic equilibrium is put forward as a simple test of the validity of dynamic equations, and is applied to perpendicular gyroviscous magnetohydrodynamics (i.e., perpendicular magnetohydrodynamics with gyroviscosity added). This model turns out to be invalid because it predicts exponentially growing Alfven waves in a spatially homogeneous static equilibrium with scalar pressure.

Stratification Modelling of Key Bacterial Taxa Driven by Metabolic Dynamics in Meromictic Lakes.

PubMed

Zhu, Kaicheng; Lauro, Federico M; Su, Haibin

2018-06-22

In meromictic lakes, the water column is stratified into distinguishable steady layers with different physico-chemical properties. The bottom portion, known as monimolimnion, has been studied for the functional stratification of microbial populations. Recent experiments have reported the profiles of bacterial and nutrient spatial distributions, but quantitative understanding is invoked to unravel the underlying mechanism of maintaining the discrete spatial organization. Here a reaction-diffusion model is developed to highlight the spatial pattern coupled with the light-driven metabolism of bacteria, which is resilient to a wide range of dynamical correlation between bacterial and nutrient species at the molecular level. Particularly, exact analytical solutions of the system are presented together with numerical results, in a good agreement with measurements in Ace lake and Rogoznica lake. Furthermore, one quantitative prediction is reported here on the dynamics of the seasonal stratification patterns in Ace lake. The active role played by the bacterial metabolism at microscale clearly shapes the biogeochemistry landscape of lake-wide ecology at macroscale.

Spatial landuse planning using land evaluation and dynamic system to define sustainable area of paddy field: Case study in Karawang Regency, West Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widiatmaka, Widiatmaka; Ambarwulan, Wiwin; Firmansyah, Irman; Munibah, Khursatul; Santoso, Paulus B. K.

2015-04-01

Indonesia is the country with the 4th largest population in the worlds; the population reached more than 237 million people. With rice as the staple food for more than 95 percent of the population, there is an important role of paddy field in Indonesian food security. Actually, paddy field in Java has produced 52,6% of the total rice production in Indonesia, showing the very high dependence of Indonesia on food production from paddy fields in Java island. Karawang Regency is one of the regions in West Java Province that contribute to the national food supply, due to its high soil fertility and its high extent of paddy field. Dynamics of land use change in this region are high because of its proximity to urban area; this dynamics has led to paddy field conversion to industry and residential landuse, which in turn change the regional rice production capacity. Decreasing paddy field landuse in this region could be serve as an example case of the general phenomena which occurred in Javanese rice production region. The objective of this study were: (i) to identify the suitable area for paddy field, (ii) to modelize the decreasing of paddy field in socio-economic context of the region, and (iii) to plan the spatial priority area of paddy field protection according to model prediction. A land evaluation for paddy was completed after a soil survey, while IKONOS imagery was analyzed to delineate paddy fields. Dynamic system model of paddy field land use is built, and then based on the model built, the land area of paddy field untill 2040 in some scenarios was developped. The research results showed that the land suitability class for paddy fields in Karawang Regency ranged from very suitable (S1) to marginally suitable (S3), with various land characteristics as limiting factors. The model predicts that if the situation of paddy field land use change continues in its business as usual path, paddy field area that would exist in the region in 2040 will stay half of the recent area. Based on the model, the scenario were developed for the protection of priority area. With such scenario, paddy field remains close to the value predicted oficially. Spatial information then can play a role by presenting the scenario spatially. Combining spatial information with land suitability, priority areas of paddy field protection can be delineated. Policies that followed also then be compiled, including the location of protection. Key-words: Land evaluation, food security, spatial information

Temporal Dynamics and Spatial Patterns of Aedes aegypti Breeding Sites, in the Context of a Dengue Control Program in Tartagal (Salta Province, Argentina).

PubMed

Espinosa, Manuel; Weinberg, Diego; Rotela, Camilo H; Polop, Francisco; Abril, Marcelo; Scavuzzo, Carlos Marcelo

2016-05-01

Since 2009, Fundación Mundo Sano has implemented an Aedes aegypti Surveillance and Control Program in Tartagal city (Salta Province, Argentina). The purpose of this study was to analyze temporal dynamics of Ae. aegypti breeding sites spatial distribution, during five years of samplings, and the effect of control actions over vector population dynamics. Seasonal entomological (larval) samplings were conducted in 17,815 fixed sites in Tartagal urban area between 2009 and 2014. Based on information of breeding sites abundance, from satellite remote sensing data (RS), and by the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), spatial analysis (hotspots and cluster analysis) and predictive model (MaxEnt) were performed. Spatial analysis showed a distribution pattern with the highest breeding densities registered in city outskirts. The model indicated that 75% of Ae. aegypti distribution is explained by 3 variables: bare soil coverage percentage (44.9%), urbanization coverage percentage(13.5%) and water distribution (11.6%). This results have called attention to the way entomological field data and information from geospatial origin (RS/GIS) are used to infer scenarios which could then be applied in epidemiological surveillance programs and in the determination of dengue control strategies. Predictive maps development constructed with Ae. aegypti systematic spatiotemporal data, in Tartagal city, would allow public health workers to identify and target high-risk areas with appropriate and timely control measures. These tools could help decision-makers to improve health system responses and preventive measures related to vector control.

Temporal Dynamics and Spatial Patterns of Aedes aegypti Breeding Sites, in the Context of a Dengue Control Program in Tartagal (Salta Province, Argentina)

PubMed Central

Espinosa, Manuel; Weinberg, Diego; Rotela, Camilo H.; Polop, Francisco; Abril, Marcelo; Scavuzzo, Carlos Marcelo

2016-01-01

Background Since 2009, Fundación Mundo Sano has implemented an Aedes aegypti Surveillance and Control Program in Tartagal city (Salta Province, Argentina). The purpose of this study was to analyze temporal dynamics of Ae. aegypti breeding sites spatial distribution, during five years of samplings, and the effect of control actions over vector population dynamics. Methodology/Principal Findings Seasonal entomological (larval) samplings were conducted in 17,815 fixed sites in Tartagal urban area between 2009 and 2014. Based on information of breeding sites abundance, from satellite remote sensing data (RS), and by the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), spatial analysis (hotspots and cluster analysis) and predictive model (MaxEnt) were performed. Spatial analysis showed a distribution pattern with the highest breeding densities registered in city outskirts. The model indicated that 75% of Ae. aegypti distribution is explained by 3 variables: bare soil coverage percentage (44.9%), urbanization coverage percentage(13.5%) and water distribution (11.6%). Conclusions/Significance This results have called attention to the way entomological field data and information from geospatial origin (RS/GIS) are used to infer scenarios which could then be applied in epidemiological surveillance programs and in the determination of dengue control strategies. Predictive maps development constructed with Ae. aegypti systematic spatiotemporal data, in Tartagal city, would allow public health workers to identify and target high-risk areas with appropriate and timely control measures. These tools could help decision-makers to improve health system responses and preventive measures related to vector control. PMID:27223693

Testing the skill of numerical hydraulic modeling to simulate spatiotemporal flooding patterns in the Logone floodplain, Cameroon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, Alfonso; Najafi, Mohammad Reza; Durand, Michael; Mark, Bryan G.; Moritz, Mark; Jung, Hahn Chul; Neal, Jeffrey; Shastry, Apoorva; Laborde, Sarah; Phang, Sui Chian; Hamilton, Ian M.; Xiao, Ningchuan

2016-08-01

Recent innovations in hydraulic modeling have enabled global simulation of rivers, including simulation of their coupled wetlands and floodplains. Accurate simulations of floodplains using these approaches may imply tremendous advances in global hydrologic studies and in biogeochemical cycling. One such innovation is to explicitly treat sub-grid channels within two-dimensional models, given only remotely sensed data in areas with limited data availability. However, predicting inundated area in floodplains using a sub-grid model has not been rigorously validated. In this study, we applied the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model using a sub-grid channel parameterization to simulate inundation dynamics on the Logone River floodplain, in northern Cameroon, from 2001 to 2007. Our goal was to determine whether floodplain dynamics could be simulated with sufficient accuracy to understand human and natural contributions to current and future inundation patterns. Model inputs in this data-sparse region include in situ river discharge, satellite-derived rainfall, and the shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM) floodplain elevation. We found that the model accurately simulated total floodplain inundation, with a Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.9, and RMSE less than 700 km2, compared to peak inundation greater than 6000 km2. Predicted discharge downstream of the floodplain matched measurements (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.81), and indicated that net flow from the channel to the floodplain was modeled accurately. However, the spatial pattern of inundation was not well simulated, apparently due to uncertainties in SRTM elevations. We evaluated model results at 250, 500 and 1000-m spatial resolutions, and found that results are insensitive to spatial resolution. We also compared the model output against results from a run of LISFLOOD-FP in which the sub-grid channel parameterization was disabled, finding that the sub-grid parameterization simulated more realistic dynamics. These results suggest that analysis of global inundation is feasible using a sub-grid model, but that spatial patterns at sub-kilometer resolutions still need to be adequately predicted.

A Dynamic Hydrology-Critical Zone Framework for Rainfall-triggered Landslide Hazard Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dialynas, Y. G.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.; Dietrich, W. E.; Bras, R. L.

2017-12-01

Watershed-scale coupled hydrologic-stability models are still in their early stages, and are characterized by important limitations: (a) either they assume steady-state or quasi-dynamic watershed hydrology, or (b) they simulate landslide occurrence based on a simple one-dimensional stability criterion. Here we develop a three-dimensional landslide prediction framework, based on a coupled hydrologic-slope stability model and incorporation of the influence of deep critical zone processes (i.e., flow through weathered bedrock and exfiltration to the colluvium) for more accurate prediction of the timing, location, and extent of landslides. Specifically, a watershed-scale slope stability model that systematically accounts for the contribution of driving and resisting forces in three-dimensional hillslope segments was coupled with a spatially-explicit and physically-based hydrologic model. The landslide prediction framework considers critical zone processes and structure, and explicitly accounts for the spatial heterogeneity of surface and subsurface properties that control slope stability, including soil and weathered bedrock hydrological and mechanical characteristics, vegetation, and slope morphology. To test performance, the model was applied in landslide-prone sites in the US, the hydrology of which has been extensively studied. Results showed that both rainfall infiltration in the soil and groundwater exfiltration exert a strong control on the timing and magnitude of landslide occurrence. We demonstrate the extent to which three-dimensional slope destabilizing factors, which are modulated by dynamic hydrologic conditions in the soil-bedrock column, control landslide initiation at the watershed scale.

Climate-driven spatial dynamics of plague among prairie dog colonies.

PubMed

Snäll, T; O'Hara, R B; Ray, C; Collinge, S K

2008-02-01

We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for the joint spatial dynamics of a host-parasite system. The model was fitted to long-term data on regional plague dynamics and metapopulation dynamics of the black-tailed prairie dog, a declining keystone species of North American prairies. The rate of plague transmission between colonies increases with increasing precipitation, while the rate of infection from unknown sources decreases in response to hot weather. The mean annual dispersal distance of plague is about 10 km, and topographic relief reduces the transmission rate. Larger colonies are more likely to become infected, but colony area does not affect the infectiousness of colonies. The results suggest that prairie dog movements do not drive the spread of plague through the landscape. Instead, prairie dogs are useful sentinels of plague epizootics. Simulations suggest that this model can be used for predicting long-term colony and plague dynamics as well as for identifying which colonies are most likely to become infected in a specific year.

Modelling field scale spatial variation in water run-off, soil moisture, N2O emissions and herbage biomass of a grazed pasture using the SPACSYS model.

PubMed

Liu, Yi; Li, Yuefen; Harris, Paul; Cardenas, Laura M; Dunn, Robert M; Sint, Hadewij; Murray, Phil J; Lee, Michael R F; Wu, Lianhai

2018-04-01

In this study, we evaluated the ability of the SPACSYS model to simulate water run-off, soil moisture, N 2 O fluxes and grass growth using data generated from a field of the North Wyke Farm Platform. The field-scale model is adapted via a linked and grid-based approach (grid-to-grid) to account for not only temporal dynamics but also the within-field spatial variation in these key ecosystem indicators. Spatial variability in nutrient and water presence at the field-scale is a key source of uncertainty when quantifying nutrient cycling and water movement in an agricultural system. Results demonstrated that the new spatially distributed version of SPACSYS provided a worthy improvement in accuracy over the standard (single-point) version for biomass productivity. No difference in model prediction performance was observed for water run-off, reflecting the closed-system nature of this variable. Similarly, no difference in model prediction performance was found for N 2 O fluxes, but here the N 2 O predictions were noticeably poor in both cases. Further developmental work, informed by this study's findings, is proposed to improve model predictions for N 2 O. Soil moisture results with the spatially distributed version appeared promising but this promise could not be objectively verified.

Integrating flood modelling in a hydrological catchment model: flow approximations and spatial resolution.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Bout, Bastian; Jetten, Victor

2017-04-01

Within hydrological models, flow approximations are commonly used to reduce computation time. The validity of these approximations is strongly determined by flow height, flow velocity, the spatial resolution of the model, and by the manner in which flow routing is implemented. The assumptions of these approximations can furthermore limit emergent behavior, and influence flow behavior under space-time scaling. In this presentation, the validity and performance of the kinematic, diffusive and dynamic flow approximations are investigated for use in a catchment-based flood model. Particularly, the validity during flood events and for varying spatial resolutions is investigated. The OpenLISEM hydrological model is extended to implement these flow approximations and channel flooding based on dynamic flow. The kinematic routing uses a predefined converging flow network, the diffusive and dynamic routing uses a 2D flow solution over a DEM. The channel flow in all cases is a 1D kinematic wave approximation. The flow approximations are used to recreate measured discharge in three catchments of different size in China, Spain and Italy, among which is the hydrograph of the 2003 flood event in the Fella river basin (Italy). Furthermore, spatial resolutions are varied for the flood simulation in order to investigate the influence of spatial resolution on these flow approximations. Results show that the kinematic, diffusive and dynamic flow approximation provide least to highest accuracy, respectively, in recreating measured temporal variation of the discharge. Kinematic flow, which is commonly used in hydrological modelling, substantially over-estimates hydrological connectivity in the simulations with a spatial resolution of below 30 meters. Since spatial resolutions of models have strongly increased over the past decades, usage of routed kinematic flow should be reconsidered. In the case of flood events, spatial modelling of kinematic flow substantially over-estimates hydrological connectivity and flow concentration, leading to significant errors. The combination of diffusive or dynamic overland flow and dynamic channel flooding provides high accuracy in recreating the 2003 Fella river flood event. Finally, flow approximations substantially influenced the predictive potential of the (flash) flood model.

Linking models and data on vegetation structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J.; Thomas, R. Q.; Dubayah, R.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Shugart, H. H.

2010-06-01

For more than a century, scientists have recognized the importance of vegetation structure in understanding forest dynamics. Now future satellite missions such as Deformation, Ecosystem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI) hold the potential to provide unprecedented global data on vegetation structure needed to reduce uncertainties in terrestrial carbon dynamics. Here, we briefly review the uses of data on vegetation structure in ecosystem models, develop and analyze theoretical models to quantify model-data requirements, and describe recent progress using a mechanistic modeling approach utilizing a formal scaling method and data on vegetation structure to improve model predictions. Generally, both limited sampling and coarse resolution averaging lead to model initialization error, which in turn is propagated in subsequent model prediction uncertainty and error. In cases with representative sampling, sufficient resolution, and linear dynamics, errors in initialization tend to compensate at larger spatial scales. However, with inadequate sampling, overly coarse resolution data or models, and nonlinear dynamics, errors in initialization lead to prediction error. A robust model-data framework will require both models and data on vegetation structure sufficient to resolve important environmental gradients and tree-level heterogeneity in forest structure globally.

Bacteria and game theory: the rise and fall of cooperation in spatially heterogeneous environments.

PubMed

Lambert, Guillaume; Vyawahare, Saurabh; Austin, Robert H

2014-08-06

One of the predictions of game theory is that cooperative behaviours are vulnerable to exploitation by selfish individuals, but this result seemingly contradicts the survival of cooperation observed in nature. In this review, we will introduce game theoretical concepts that lead to this conclusion and show how the spatial competition dynamics between microorganisms can be used to model the survival and maintenance of cooperation. In particular, we focus on how Escherichia coli bacteria with a growth advantage in stationary phase (GASP) phenotype maintain a proliferative phenotype when faced with overcrowding to gain a fitness advantage over wild-type populations. We review recent experimental approaches studying the growth dynamics of competing GASP and wild-type strains of E. coli inside interconnected microfabricated habitats and use a game theoretical approach to analyse the observed inter-species interactions. We describe how the use of evolutionary game theory and the ideal free distribution accurately models the spatial distribution of cooperative and selfish individuals in spatially heterogeneous environments. Using bacteria as a model system of cooperative and selfish behaviours may lead to a better understanding of the competition dynamics of other organisms-including tumour-host interactions during cancer development and metastasis.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population

PubMed Central

Bartolino, Valerio; Tian, Huidong; Bergström, Ulf; Jounela, Pekka; Aro, Eero; Dieterich, Christian; Meier, H. E. Markus; Cardinale, Massimiliano; Bland, Barbara

2017-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes. PMID:28207804

Fort Collins Science Center Ecosystem Dynamics branch--interdisciplinary research for addressing complex natural resource issues across landscapes and time

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowen, Zachary H.; Melcher, Cynthia P.; Wilson, Juliette T.

2013-01-01

The Ecosystem Dynamics Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center offers an interdisciplinary team of talented and creative scientists with expertise in biology, botany, ecology, geology, biogeochemistry, physical sciences, geographic information systems, and remote-sensing, for tackling complex questions about natural resources. As demand for natural resources increases, the issues facing natural resource managers, planners, policy makers, industry, and private landowners are increasing in spatial and temporal scope, often involving entire regions, multiple jurisdictions, and long timeframes. Needs for addressing these issues include (1) a better understanding of biotic and abiotic ecosystem components and their complex interactions; (2) the ability to easily monitor, assess, and visualize the spatially complex movements of animals, plants, water, and elements across highly variable landscapes; and (3) the techniques for accurately predicting both immediate and long-term responses of system components to natural and human-caused change. The overall objectives of our research are to provide the knowledge, tools, and techniques needed by the U.S. Department of the Interior, state agencies, and other stakeholders in their endeavors to meet the demand for natural resources while conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services. Ecosystem Dynamics scientists use field and laboratory research, data assimilation, and ecological modeling to understand ecosystem patterns, trends, and mechanistic processes. This information is used to predict the outcomes of changes imposed on species, habitats, landscapes, and climate across spatiotemporal scales. The products we develop include conceptual models to illustrate system structure and processes; regional baseline and integrated assessments; predictive spatial and mathematical models; literature syntheses; and frameworks or protocols for improved ecosystem monitoring, adaptive management, and program evaluation. The descriptions in this fact sheet provide snapshots of our three research emphases, followed by descriptions of select current projects.

Spatially explicit modeling of particulate nutrient flux in Large global rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S.; Kettner, A.; Mayorga, E.; Harrison, J. A.

2017-12-01

Water, sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes along river networks have undergone considerable alterations in response to anthropogenic and climatic changes, with significant consequences to infrastructure, agriculture, water security, ecology and geomorphology worldwide. However, in a global setting, these changes in fluvial fluxes and their spatial and temporal characteristics are poorly constrained, due to the limited availability of continuous and long-term observations. We present results from a new global-scale particulate modeling framework (WBMsedNEWS) that combines the Global NEWS watershed nutrient export model with the spatially distributed WBMsed water and sediment model. We compare the model predictions against multiple observational datasets. The results indicate that the model is able to accurately predict particulate nutrient (Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Organic Carbon) fluxes on an annual time scale. Analysis of intra-basin nutrient dynamics and fluxes to global oceans is presented.

On species persistence-time distributions.

PubMed

Suweis, S; Bertuzzo, E; Mari, L; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I; Maritan, A; Rinaldo, A

2012-06-21

We present new theoretical and empirical results on the probability distributions of species persistence times in natural ecosystems. Persistence times, defined as the timespans occurring between species' colonization and local extinction in a given geographic region, are empirically estimated from local observations of species' presence/absence. A connected sampling problem is presented, generalized and solved analytically. Species persistence is shown to provide a direct connection with key spatial macroecological patterns like species-area and endemics-area relationships. Our empirical analysis pertains to two different ecosystems and taxa: a herbaceous plant community and a estuarine fish database. Despite the substantial differences in ecological interactions and spatial scales, we confirm earlier evidence on the general properties of the scaling of persistence times, including the predicted effects of the structure of the spatial interaction network. The framework tested here allows to investigate directly nature and extent of spatial effects in the context of ecosystem dynamics. The notable coherence between spatial and temporal macroecological patterns, theoretically derived and empirically verified, is suggested to underlie general features of the dynamic evolution of ecosystems. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linking spring phenology with mechanistic models of host movement to predict disease transmission risk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Merkle, Jerod A.; Cross, Paul C.; Scurlock, Brandon M.; Cole, Eric K.; Courtemanch, Alyson B.; Dewey, Sarah R.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

2018-01-01

Disease models typically focus on temporal dynamics of infection, while often neglecting environmental processes that determine host movement. In many systems, however, temporal disease dynamics may be slow compared to the scale at which environmental conditions alter host space-use and accelerate disease transmission.Using a mechanistic movement modelling approach, we made space-use predictions of a mobile host (elk [Cervus Canadensis] carrying the bacterial disease brucellosis) under environmental conditions that change daily and annually (e.g., plant phenology, snow depth), and we used these predictions to infer how spring phenology influences the risk of brucellosis transmission from elk (through aborted foetuses) to livestock in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.Using data from 288 female elk monitored with GPS collars, we fit step selection functions (SSFs) during the spring abortion season and then implemented a master equation approach to translate SSFs into predictions of daily elk distribution for five plausible winter weather scenarios (from a heavy snow, to an extreme winter drought year). We predicted abortion events by combining elk distributions with empirical estimates of daily abortion rates, spatially varying elk seroprevelance and elk population counts.Our results reveal strong spatial variation in disease transmission risk at daily and annual scales that is strongly governed by variation in host movement in response to spring phenology. For example, in comparison with an average snow year, years with early snowmelt are predicted to have 64% of the abortions occurring on feedgrounds shift to occurring on mainly public lands, and to a lesser extent on private lands.Synthesis and applications. Linking mechanistic models of host movement with disease dynamics leads to a novel bridge between movement and disease ecology. Our analysis framework offers new avenues for predicting disease spread, while providing managers tools to proactively mitigate risks posed by mobile disease hosts. More broadly, we demonstrate how mechanistic movement models can provide predictions of ecological conditions that are consistent with climate change but may be more extreme than has been observed historically.

The dual impact of ecology and management on social incentives in marine common-pool resource systems.

PubMed

Klein, E S; Barbier, M R; Watson, J R

2017-08-01

Understanding how and when cooperative human behaviour forms in common-pool resource systems is critical to illuminating social-ecological systems and designing governance institutions that promote sustainable resource use. Before assessing the full complexity of social dynamics, it is essential to understand, concretely and mechanistically, how resource dynamics and human actions interact to create incentives and pay-offs for social behaviours. Here, we investigated how such incentives for information sharing are affected by spatial dynamics and management in a common-pool resource system. Using interviews with fishermen to inform an agent-based model, we reveal generic mechanisms through which, for a given ecological setting characterized by the spatial dynamics of the resource, the two 'human factors' of information sharing and management may heterogeneously impact various members of a group for whom theory would otherwise predict the same strategy. When users can deplete the resource, these interactions are further affected by the management approach. Finally, we discuss the implications of alternative motivations, such as equity among fishermen and consistency of the fleet's output. Our results indicate that resource spatial dynamics, form of management and level of depletion can interact to alter the sociality of people in common-pool resource systems, providing necessary insight for future study of strategic decision processes.

Validating spatiotemporal predictions of an important pest of small grains.

PubMed

Merrill, Scott C; Holtzer, Thomas O; Peairs, Frank B; Lester, Philip J

2015-01-01

Arthropod pests are typically managed using tactics applied uniformly to the whole field. Precision pest management applies tactics under the assumption that within-field pest pressure differences exist. This approach allows for more precise and judicious use of scouting resources and management tactics. For example, a portion of a field delineated as attractive to pests may be selected to receive extra monitoring attention. Likely because of the high variability in pest dynamics, little attention has been given to developing precision pest prediction models. Here, multimodel synthesis was used to develop a spatiotemporal model predicting the density of a key pest of wheat, the Russian wheat aphid, Diuraphis noxia (Kurdjumov). Spatially implicit and spatially explicit models were synthesized to generate spatiotemporal pest pressure predictions. Cross-validation and field validation were used to confirm model efficacy. A strong within-field signal depicting aphid density was confirmed with low prediction errors. Results show that the within-field model predictions will provide higher-quality information than would be provided by traditional field scouting. With improvements to the broad-scale model component, the model synthesis approach and resulting tool could improve pest management strategy and provide a template for the development of spatially explicit pest pressure models. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Tumor evolution in space: the effects of competition colonization tradeoffs on tumor invasion dynamics.

PubMed

Orlando, Paul A; Gatenby, Robert A; Brown, Joel S

2013-01-01

We apply competition colonization tradeoff models to tumor growth and invasion dynamics to explore the hypothesis that varying selection forces will result in predictable phenotypic differences in cells at the tumor invasive front compared to those in the core. Spatially, ecologically, and evolutionarily explicit partial differential equation models of tumor growth confirm that spatial invasion produces selection pressure for motile phenotypes. The effects of the invasive phenotype on normal adjacent tissue determine the patterns of growth and phenotype distribution. If tumor cells do not destroy their environment, colonizer and competitive phenotypes coexist with the former localized at the invasion front and the latter, to the tumor interior. If tumors cells do destroy their environment, then cell motility is strongly selected resulting in accelerated invasion speed with time. Our results suggest that the widely observed genetic heterogeneity within cancers may not be the stochastic effect of random mutations. Rather, it may be the consequence of predictable variations in environmental selection forces and corresponding phenotypic adaptations.

Tumor Evolution in Space: The Effects of Competition Colonization Tradeoffs on Tumor Invasion Dynamics

PubMed Central

Orlando, Paul A.; Gatenby, Robert A.; Brown, Joel S.

2013-01-01

We apply competition colonization tradeoff models to tumor growth and invasion dynamics to explore the hypothesis that varying selection forces will result in predictable phenotypic differences in cells at the tumor invasive front compared to those in the core. Spatially, ecologically, and evolutionarily explicit partial differential equation models of tumor growth confirm that spatial invasion produces selection pressure for motile phenotypes. The effects of the invasive phenotype on normal adjacent tissue determine the patterns of growth and phenotype distribution. If tumor cells do not destroy their environment, colonizer and competitive phenotypes coexist with the former localized at the invasion front and the latter, to the tumor interior. If tumors cells do destroy their environment, then cell motility is strongly selected resulting in accelerated invasion speed with time. Our results suggest that the widely observed genetic heterogeneity within cancers may not be the stochastic effect of random mutations. Rather, it may be the consequence of predictable variations in environmental selection forces and corresponding phenotypic adaptations. PMID:23508890

Predictive spatial modeling of narcotic crop growth patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waltz, Frederick A.; Moore, D.G.

1986-01-01

Spatial models for predicting the geographic distribution of marijuana crops have been developed and are being evaluated for use in law enforcement programs. The models are based on growing condition preferences and on psychological inferences regarding grower behavior. Experiences of local law officials were used to derive the initial model, which was updated and improved as data from crop finds were archived and statistically analyzed. The predictive models are changed as crop locations are moved in response to the pressures of law enforcement. The models use spatial data in a raster geographic information system. The spatial data are derived from the U.S. Geological Survey's US GeoData, standard 7.5-minute topographic quadrangle maps, interpretations of aerial photographs, and thematic maps. Updating of cultural patterns, canopy closure, and other dynamic features is conducted through interpretation of aerial photographs registered to the 7.5-minute quadrangle base. The model is used to numerically weight various data layers that have been processed using spread functions, edge definition, and categorization. The building of the spatial data base, model development, model application, product generation, and use are collectively referred to as the Area Reduction Program (ARP). The goal of ARP is to provide law enforcement officials with tactical maps that show the most likely locations for narcotic crops.

Dam Dynamics in the Colonial Northeast and Chesapeake: Hydrologic Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bain, D. J.; Salant, N. L.; Brandt, S. L.

2008-12-01

Recent work has highlighted the widespread presence of low-head dams for power generation during the 19th century. However, this work largely depends on census numbers tabulated in the mid-1800s, over 200 years after European activity began in North America. In order to compare the hydrologic implications of colonial era low-head dam construction with the impacts of other simultaneous processes (e.g., expatriation of the beaver or forest clearance), we have compiled historical data on mills to reconstruct the temporal and spatial dynamics of low-head dam construction in the colonial northeastern United States (i.e., Virginia to Maine). This reconstruction, combined with the results of related work on beaver pond dynamics and deforestation, provides several insights into the distribution and impacts of human impoundments during this period. While the resulting hydrologic changes are large, the addition of human dams to the system seems to be minimally offset and less important than changes arising from the expatriation of the beaver or the removal of trees during this early period. In addition, the spatial patterns of dam construction are complex, making prediction of hydrologic and associated responses more difficult to predict.

Incorporating human-water dynamics in a hyper-resolution land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergopolan, N.; Chaney, N.; Wanders, N.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

The increasing demand for water, energy, and food is leading to unsustainable groundwater and surface water exploitation. As a result, the human interactions with the environment, through alteration of land and water resources dynamics, need to be reflected in hydrologic and land surface models (LSMs). Advancements in representing human-water dynamics still leave challenges related to the lack of water use data, water allocation algorithms, and modeling scales. This leads to an over-simplistic representation of human water use in large-scale models; this is in turn leads to an inability to capture extreme events signatures and to provide reliable information at stakeholder-level spatial scales. The emergence of hyper-resolution models allows one to address these challenges by simulating the hydrological processes and interactions with the human impacts at field scales. We integrated human-water dynamics into HydroBlocks - a hyper-resolution, field-scale resolving LSM. HydroBlocks explicitly solves the field-scale spatial heterogeneity of land surface processes through interacting hydrologic response units (HRUs); and its HRU-based model parallelization allows computationally efficient long-term simulations as well as ensemble predictions. The implemented human-water dynamics include groundwater and surface water abstraction to meet agricultural, domestic and industrial water demands. Furthermore, a supply-demand water allocation scheme based on relative costs helps to determine sectoral water use requirements and tradeoffs. A set of HydroBlocks simulations over the Midwest United States (daily, at 30-m spatial resolution for 30 years) are used to quantify the irrigation impacts on water availability. The model captures large reductions in total soil moisture and water table levels, as well as spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and runoff peaks, with their intensity related to the adopted water management strategy. By incorporating human-water dynamics in a hyper-resolution LSM this work allows for progress on hydrological monitoring and predictions, as well as drought preparedness and water impact assessments at relevant decision-making scales.

Individual-Based Model of Microbial Life on Hydrated Rough Soil Surfaces

PubMed Central

Kim, Minsu; Or, Dani

2016-01-01

Microbial life in soil is perceived as one of the most interesting ecological systems, with microbial communities exhibiting remarkable adaptability to vast dynamic environmental conditions. At the same time, it is a notoriously challenging system to understand due to its complexity including physical, chemical, and biological factors in synchrony. This study presents a spatially-resolved model of microbial dynamics on idealised rough soil surfaces represented as patches with different (roughness) properties that preserve the salient hydration physics of real surfaces. Cell level microbial interactions are considered within an individual-based formulation including dispersion and various forms of trophic dependencies (competition, mutualism). The model provides new insights into mechanisms affecting microbial community dynamics and gives rise to spontaneous formation of microbial community spatial patterns. The framework is capable of representing many interacting species and provides diversity metrics reflecting surface conditions and their evolution over time. A key feature of the model is its spatial scalability that permits representation of microbial processes from cell-level (micro-metric scales) to soil representative volumes at sub-metre scales. Several illustrative examples of microbial trophic interactions and population dynamics highlight the potential of the proposed modelling framework to quantitatively study soil microbial processes. The model is highly applicable in a wide range spanning from quantifying spatial organisation of multiple species under various hydration conditions to predicting microbial diversity residing in different soils. PMID:26807803

A comparison of large-scale climate signals and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) for drought prediction in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Lei; Chen, Nengcheng; Zhang, Xiang

2018-02-01

Drought is an extreme natural disaster that can lead to huge socioeconomic losses. Drought prediction ahead of months is helpful for early drought warning and preparations. In this study, we developed a statistical model, two weighted dynamic models and a statistical-dynamic (hybrid) model for 1-6 month lead drought prediction in China. Specifically, statistical component refers to climate signals weighting by support vector regression (SVR), dynamic components consist of the ensemble mean (EM) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) climatic models, and the hybrid part denotes a combination of statistical and dynamic components by assigning weights based on their historical performances. The results indicate that the statistical and hybrid models show better rainfall predictions than NMME-EM and NMME-BMA models, which have good predictability only in southern China. In the 2011 China winter-spring drought event, the statistical model well predicted the spatial extent and severity of drought nationwide, although the severity was underestimated in the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR) region. The NMME-EM and NMME-BMA models largely overestimated rainfall in northern and western China in 2011 drought. In the 2013 China summer drought, the NMME-EM model forecasted the drought extent and severity in eastern China well, while the statistical and hybrid models falsely detected negative precipitation anomaly (NPA) in some areas. Model ensembles such as multiple statistical approaches, multiple dynamic models or multiple hybrid models for drought predictions were highlighted. These conclusions may be helpful for drought prediction and early drought warnings in China.

Phylodynamics and Human-Mediated Dispersal of a Zoonotic Virus

PubMed Central

Talbi, Chiraz; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A.; Abdelatif, Elbia; Elharrak, Mehdi; Jalal, Nourlil; Faouzi, Abdellah; Echevarría, Juan E.; Vazquez Morón, Sonia; Rambaut, Andrew; Campiz, Nicholas; Tatem, Andrew J.; Holmes, Edward C.; Bourhy, Hervé

2010-01-01

Understanding the role of humans in the dispersal of predominately animal pathogens is essential for their control. We used newly developed Bayesian phylogeographic methods to unravel the dynamics and determinants of the spread of dog rabies virus (RABV) in North Africa. Each of the countries studied exhibited largely disconnected spatial dynamics with major geo-political boundaries acting as barriers to gene flow. Road distances proved to be better predictors of the movement of dog RABV than accessibility or raw geographical distance, with occasional long distance and rapid spread within each of these countries. Using simulations that bridge phylodynamics and spatial epidemiology, we demonstrate that the contemporary viral distribution extends beyond that expected for RABV transmission in African dog populations. These results are strongly supportive of human-mediated dispersal, and demonstrate how an integrated phylogeographic approach will turn viral genetic data into a powerful asset for characterizing, predicting, and potentially controlling the spatial spread of pathogens. PMID:21060816

Microbial Life in Soil - Linking Biophysical Models with Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Or, Dani; Tecon, Robin; Ebrahimi, Ali; Kleyer, Hannah; Ilie, Olga; Wang, Gang

2015-04-01

Microbial life in soil occurs within fragmented aquatic habitats formed in complex pore spaces where motility is restricted to short hydration windows (e.g., following rainfall). The limited range of self-dispersion and physical confinement promote spatial association among trophically interdepended microbial species. Competition and preferences for different nutrient resources and byproducts and their diffusion require high level of spatial organization to sustain the functioning of multispecies communities. We report mechanistic modeling studies of competing multispecies microbial communities grown on hydrated surfaces and within artificial soil aggregates (represented by 3-D pore network). Results show how trophic dependencies and cell-level interactions within patchy diffusion fields promote spatial self-organization of motile microbial cells. The spontaneously forming patterns of segregated, yet coexisting species were robust to spatial heterogeneities and to temporal perturbations (hydration dynamics), and respond primarily to the type of trophic dependencies. Such spatially self-organized consortia may reflect ecological templates that optimize substrate utilization and could form the basic architecture for more permanent surface-attached microbial colonies. Hydration dynamics affect structure and spatial arrangement of aerobic and anaerobic microbial communities and their biogeochemical functions. Experiments with well-characterized artificial soil microbial assemblies grown on porous surfaces provide access to community dynamics during wetting and drying cycles detected through genetic fingerprinting. Experiments for visual observations of spatial associations of tagged bacterial species with known trophic dependencies on model porous surfaces are underway. Biophysical modeling provide a means for predicting hydration-mediated critical separation distances for activation of spatial self-organization. The study provides new modeling and observational tools that enable new mechanistic insights into how differences in substrate affinities among microbial species and soil micro-hydrological conditions may give rise to a remarkable spatial and functional order in an extremely heterogeneous soil microbial world

Microbial Life in Soil - Linking Biophysical Models with Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Or, D.; Tecon, R.; Ebrahimi, A.; Kleyer, H.; Ilie, O.; Wang, G.

2014-12-01

Microbial life in soil occurs within fragmented aquatic habitats in complex pore spaces where motility is restricted to short hydration windows (e.g., following rainfall). The limited range of self-dispersion and physical confinement promote spatial association among trophically interdepended microbial species. Competition and preferences for different nutrient resources and byproducts and their diffusion require high level of spatial organization to sustain the functioning of multispecies communities. We report mechanistic modeling studies of competing multispecies microbial communities grown on hydrated surfaces and within artificial soil aggregates (represented by 3-D pore network). Results show how trophic dependencies and cell-level interactions within patchy diffusion fields promote spatial self-organization of motile microbial cells. The spontaneously forming patterns of segregated, yet coexisting species were robust to spatial heterogeneities and to temporal perturbations (hydration dynamics), and respond primarily to the type of trophic dependencies. Such spatially self-organized consortia may reflect ecological templates that optimize substrate utilization and could form the basic architecture for more permanent surface-attached microbial colonies. Hydration dynamics affect structure and spatial arrangement of aerobic and anaerobic microbial communities and their biogeochemical functions. Experiments with well-characterized artificial soil microbial assemblies grown on porous surfaces provide access to community dynamics during wetting and drying cycles detected through genetic fingerprinting. Experiments for visual observations of spatial associations of tagged bacterial species with known trophic dependencies on model porous surfaces are underway. Biophysical modeling provide a means for predicting hydration-mediated critical separation distances for activation of spatial self-organization. The study provides new modeling and observational tools that enable new mechanistic insights into how differences in substrate affinities among microbial species and soil micro-hydrological conditions may give rise to a remarkable spatial and functional order in an extremely heterogeneous soil microbial world.

Spatial Pattern of Attacks of the Invasive Woodwasp Sirex noctilio, at Landscape and Stand Scales.

PubMed

Lantschner, M Victoria; Corley, Juan C

2015-01-01

Invasive insect pests are responsible for important damage to native and plantation forests, when population outbreaks occur. Understanding the spatial pattern of attacks by forest pest populations is essential to improve our understanding of insect population dynamics and for predicting attack risk by invasives or planning pest management strategies. The woodwasp Sirex noctilio is an invasive woodwasp that has become probably the most important pest of pine plantations in the Southern Hemisphere. Our aim was to study the spatial dynamics of S. noctilio populations in Southern Argentina. Specifically we describe: (1) the spatial patterns of S. noctilio outbreaks and their relation with environmental factors at a landscape scale; and (2) characterize the spatial pattern of attacked trees at the stand scale. We surveyed the spatial distribution of S. noctilio outbreaks in three pine plantation landscapes, and we assessed potential associations with topographic variables, habitat characteristics, and distance to other outbreaks. We also looked at the spatial distribution of attacked trees in 20 stands with different levels of infestation, and assessed the relationship of attacks with stand composition and management. We found that the spatial pattern of pine stands with S. noctilio outbreaks at the landscape scale is influenced mainly by the host species present, slope aspect, and distance to other outbreaks. At a stand scale, there is strong aggregation of attacked trees in stands with intermediate infestation levels, and the degree of attacks is influenced by host species and plantation management. We conclude that the pattern of S. noctilio damage at different spatial scales is influenced by a combination of both inherent population dynamics and the underlying patterns of environmental factors. Our results have important implications for the understanding and management of invasive insect outbreaks in forest systems.

The consequences of neural degeneration regarding optimal cochlear implant position in scala tympani: a model approach.

PubMed

Briaire, Jeroen J; Frijns, Johan H M

2006-04-01

Cochlear implant research endeavors to optimize the spatial selectivity, threshold and dynamic range with the objective of improving the speech perception performance of the implant user. One of the ways to achieve some of these goals is by electrode design. New cochlear implant electrode designs strive to bring the electrode contacts into close proximity to the nerve fibers in the modiolus: this is done by placing the contacts on the medial side of the array and positioning the implant against the medial wall of scala tympani. The question remains whether this is the optimal position for a cochlea with intact neural fibers and, if so, whether it is also true for a cochlea with degenerated neural fibers. In this study a computational model of the implanted human cochlea is used to investigate the optimal position of the array with respect to threshold, dynamic range and spatial selectivity for a cochlea with intact nerve fibers and for degenerated nerve fibers. In addition, the model is used to evaluate the predictive value of eCAP measurements for obtaining peri-operative information on the neural status. The model predicts improved threshold, dynamic range and spatial selectivity for the peri-modiolar position at the basal end of the cochlea, with minimal influence of neural degeneration. At the apical end of the array (1.5 cochlear turns), the dynamic range and the spatial selectivity are limited due to the occurrence of cross-turn stimulation, with the exception of the condition without neural degeneration and with the electrode array along the lateral wall of scala tympani. The eCAP simulations indicate that a large P(0) peak occurs before the N(1)P(1) complex when the fibers are not degenerated. The absence of this peak might be used as an indicator for neural degeneration.

Time-and-Spatially Adapting Simulations for Efficient Dynamic Stall Predictions

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

Experi- mental Investigation and Fundamental Understand- ing of a Full-Scale Slowed Rotor at High Advance Ratios,” Journal of the American Helicopter ...remains a major roadblock in the design and analysis of conventional rotors as well as new concepts for future vertical lift. Several approaches to...of conventional rotors as well as new concepts for future vertical lift. Several approaches to reduce the cost of these dynamic stall simulations for

Influence of chemistry, interfacial width, and non-isothermal conditions on spatially heterogeneous activated relaxation and elasticity in glass-forming free standing films

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mirigian, Stephen; Schweizer, Kenneth S.

Here, we employ the Elastically Collective Nonlinear Langevin Equation (ECNLE) theory of activated relaxation to study several questions in free standing thin films of glass-forming molecular and polymer liquids. The influence of non-universal chemical aspects on dynamical confinement effects is found to be relatively weak, but with the caveat that for the systems examined, the bulk ECNLE polymer theory does not predict widely varying fragilities. Allowing the film model to have a realistic vapor interfacial width significantly enhances the reduction of the film-averaged glass transition temperature, T g, in a manner that depends on whether a dynamic or pseudo-thermodynamic averagingmore » of the spatial mobility gradient is adopted. The nature of film thickness effects on the spatial profiles of the alpha relaxation time and elastic modulus is studied under non-isothermal conditions and contrasted with the corresponding isothermal behavior. Modest differences are found if a film-thickness dependent T g is defined in a dynamical manner. But, adopting a pseudo-thermodynamic measure of T g leads to a qualitatively new form of the alpha relaxation time gradient where highly mobile layers near the film surface coexist with strongly vitrified regions in the film interior. Consequently, the film-averaged shear modulus can increase with decreasing film thickness, despite the T g reduction and presence of a mobile surface layer. Such a behavior stands in qualitative contrast to the predicted mechanical softening under isothermal conditions. Spatial gradients of the elastic modulus are studied as a function of temperature, film thickness, probing frequency, and experimental protocol, and a rich behavior is found.« less

Influence of chemistry, interfacial width, and non-isothermal conditions on spatially heterogeneous activated relaxation and elasticity in glass-forming free standing films

DOE PAGES

Mirigian, Stephen; Schweizer, Kenneth S.

2017-02-02

Here, we employ the Elastically Collective Nonlinear Langevin Equation (ECNLE) theory of activated relaxation to study several questions in free standing thin films of glass-forming molecular and polymer liquids. The influence of non-universal chemical aspects on dynamical confinement effects is found to be relatively weak, but with the caveat that for the systems examined, the bulk ECNLE polymer theory does not predict widely varying fragilities. Allowing the film model to have a realistic vapor interfacial width significantly enhances the reduction of the film-averaged glass transition temperature, T g, in a manner that depends on whether a dynamic or pseudo-thermodynamic averagingmore » of the spatial mobility gradient is adopted. The nature of film thickness effects on the spatial profiles of the alpha relaxation time and elastic modulus is studied under non-isothermal conditions and contrasted with the corresponding isothermal behavior. Modest differences are found if a film-thickness dependent T g is defined in a dynamical manner. But, adopting a pseudo-thermodynamic measure of T g leads to a qualitatively new form of the alpha relaxation time gradient where highly mobile layers near the film surface coexist with strongly vitrified regions in the film interior. Consequently, the film-averaged shear modulus can increase with decreasing film thickness, despite the T g reduction and presence of a mobile surface layer. Such a behavior stands in qualitative contrast to the predicted mechanical softening under isothermal conditions. Spatial gradients of the elastic modulus are studied as a function of temperature, film thickness, probing frequency, and experimental protocol, and a rich behavior is found.« less

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling

PubMed Central

Wisz, Mary Susanne; Pottier, Julien; Kissling, W Daniel; Pellissier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Damgaard, Christian F; Dormann, Carsten F; Forchhammer, Mads C; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Guisan, Antoine; Heikkinen, Risto K; Høye, Toke T; Kühn, Ingolf; Luoto, Miska; Maiorano, Luigi; Nilsson, Marie-Charlotte; Normand, Signe; Öckinger, Erik; Schmidt, Niels M; Termansen, Mette; Timmermann, Allan; Wardle, David A; Aastrup, Peter; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2013-01-01

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km2 to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere. PMID:22686347

Finite Element Model Development and Validation for Aircraft Fuselage Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buehrle, Ralph D.; Fleming, Gary A.; Pappa, Richard S.; Grosveld, Ferdinand W.

2000-01-01

The ability to extend the valid frequency range for finite element based structural dynamic predictions using detailed models of the structural components and attachment interfaces is examined for several stiffened aircraft fuselage structures. This extended dynamic prediction capability is needed for the integration of mid-frequency noise control technology. Beam, plate and solid element models of the stiffener components are evaluated. Attachment models between the stiffener and panel skin range from a line along the rivets of the physical structure to a constraint over the entire contact surface. The finite element models are validated using experimental modal analysis results. The increased frequency range results in a corresponding increase in the number of modes, modal density and spatial resolution requirements. In this study, conventional modal tests using accelerometers are complemented with Scanning Laser Doppler Velocimetry and Electro-Optic Holography measurements to further resolve the spatial response characteristics. Whenever possible, component and subassembly modal tests are used to validate the finite element models at lower levels of assembly. Normal mode predictions for different finite element representations of components and assemblies are compared with experimental results to assess the most accurate techniques for modeling aircraft fuselage type structures.

Mass and energy budgets of animals: Behavioral and ecological implications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porter, W.P.

1991-11-01

The two major aims of our lab are as follows: First, to develop and field-test general mechanistic models that predict animal life history characteristics as influenced by climate and the physical, physiological behavioral characteristics of species. This involves: understanding how animal time and energy budgets are affected by climate and animal properties; predicting growth and reproductive potential from time and energy budgets; predicting mortality based on climate and time and energy budgets; and linking these individual based models to population dynamics. Second to conduct empirical studies of animal physiological ecology, particularly the effects of temperature on time and energy budgets.more » The physiological ecology of individual animals is the key link between the physical environment and population-level phenomena. We address the macroclimate to microclimate linkage on a broad spatial scale; address the links between individuals and population dynamics for lizard species; test the endotherm energetics and behavior model using beaver; address the spatial variation in climate and its effects on individual energetics, growth and reproduction; and address patchiness in the environment and constraints they may impose on individual energetics, growth and reproduction. These projects are described individually in the following section. 24 refs., 9 figs.« less

Analysis of solar receiver flux distributions for US/Russian solar dynamic system demonstration on the MIR Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerslake, Thomas W.; Fincannon, James

1995-01-01

The United States and Russia have agreed to jointly develop a solar dynamic (SD) system for flight demonstration on the Russian MIR space station starting in late 1997. Two important components of this SD system are the solar concentrator and heat receiver provided by Russia and the U.S., respectively. This paper describes optical analysis of the concentrator and solar flux predictions on target receiver surfaces. The optical analysis is performed using the code CIRCE2. These analyses account for finite sun size with limb darkening, concentrator surface slope and position errors, concentrator petal thermal deformation, gaps between petals, and the shading effect of the receiver support struts. The receiver spatial flux distributions are then combined with concentrator shadowing predictions. Geometric shadowing patterns are traced from the concentrator to the target receiver surfaces. These patterns vary with time depending on the chosen MIR flight attitude and orbital mechanics of the MIR spacecraft. The resulting predictions provide spatial and temporal receiver flux distributions for any specified mission profile. The impact these flux distributions have on receiver design and control of the Brayton engine are discussed.

Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Balshi, M. S.; McGuire, A.D.; Duffy, P.; Flannigan, M.; Walsh, J.; Melillo, J.

2009-01-01

Fire is a common disturbance in the North American boreal forest that influences ecosystem structure and function. The temporal and spatial dynamics of fire are likely to be altered as climate continues to change. In this study, we ask the question: how will area burned in boreal North America by wildfire respond to future changes in climate? To evaluate this question, we developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5?? (latitude ?? longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was substantially more predictable in the western portion of boreal North America than in eastern Canada. Burned area was also not very predictable in areas of substantial topographic relief and in areas along the transition between boreal forest and tundra. At the scale of Alaska and western Canada, the empirical fire models explain on the order of 82% of the variation in annual area burned for the period 1960-2002. July temperature was the most frequently occurring predictor across all models, but the fuel moisture codes for the months June through August (as a group) entered the models as the most important predictors of annual area burned. To predict changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of fire under future climate, the empirical fire models used output from the Canadian Climate Center CGCM2 global climate model to predict annual area burned through the year 2100 across Alaska and western Canada. Relative to 1991-2000, the results suggest that average area burned per decade will double by 2041-2050 and will increase on the order of 3.5-5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century. To improve the ability to better predict wildfire across Alaska and Canada, future research should focus on incorporating additional effects of long-term and successional vegetation changes on area burned to account more fully for interactions among fire, climate, and vegetation dynamics. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Thermal imager sources of non-uniformities: modeling of static and dynamic contributions during operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sozzi, B.; Olivieri, M.; Mariani, P.; Giunti, C.; Zatti, S.; Porta, A.

2014-05-01

Due to the fast-growing of cooled detector sensitivity in the last years, on the image 10-20 mK temperature difference between adjacent objects can theoretically be discerned if the calibration algorithm (NUC) is capable to take into account and compensate every spatial noise source. To predict how the NUC algorithm is strong in all working condition, the modeling of the flux impinging on the detector becomes a challenge to control and improve the quality of a properly calibrated image in all scene/ambient conditions including every source of spurious signal. In literature there are just available papers dealing with NU caused by pixel-to-pixel differences of detector parameters and by the difference between the reflection of the detector cold part and the housing at the operative temperature. These models don't explain the effects on the NUC results due to vignetting, dynamic sources out and inside the FOV, reflected contributions from hot spots inside the housing (for example thermal reference far of the optical path). We propose a mathematical model in which: 1) detector and system (opto-mechanical configuration and scene) are considered separated and represented by two independent transfer functions 2) on every pixel of the array the amount of photonic signal coming from different spurious sources are considered to evaluate the effect on residual spatial noise due to dynamic operative conditions. This article also contains simulation results showing how this model can be used to predict the amount of spatial noise.

Simulated GOLD Observations of Atmospheric Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correira, J.; Evans, J. S.; Lumpe, J. D.; Rusch, D. W.; Chandran, A.; Eastes, R.; Codrescu, M.

2016-12-01

The Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) mission will measure structures in the Earth's airglow layer due to dynamical forcing by vertically and horizontally propagating waves. These measurements focus on global-scale structures, including compositional and temperature responses resulting from dynamical forcing. Daytime observations of far-UV emissions by GOLD will be used to generate two-dimensional maps of the ratio of atomic oxygen and molecular nitrogen column densities (ΣO/N2 ) as well as neutral temperature that provide signatures of large-scale spatial structure. In this presentation, we use simulations to demonstrate GOLD's capability to deduce periodicities and spatial dimensions of large-scale waves from the spatial and temporal evolution observed in composition and temperature maps. Our simulations include sophisticated forward modeling of the upper atmospheric airglow that properly accounts for anisotropy in neutral and ion composition, temperature, and solar illumination. Neutral densities and temperatures used in the simulations are obtained from global circulation and climatology models that have been perturbed by propagating waves with a range of amplitudes, periods, and sources of excitation. Modeling of airglow emission and predictions of ΣO/N2 and neutral temperatures are performed with the Atmospheric Ultraviolet Radiance Integrated Code (AURIC) and associated derived product algorithms. Predicted structure in ΣO/N2 and neutral temperature due to dynamical forcing by propagating waves is compared to existing observations. Realistic GOLD Level 2 data products are generated from simulated airglow emission using algorithm code that will be implemented operationally at the GOLD Science Data Center.

ASSESSING AND PREVENTING THE SPREAD OF CONTAMINANTS IN A DRINKING WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

Remote monitoring data, field studies, and the modeling software ? EPANET, can be used by drinking water utilities and consulting engineers to predict flow dynamics and information on the spatial distribution and concentration of contaminants in a drinking water system. A field ...

Spatial dispersal of Douglas-fir beetle populations in Colorado and Wyoming

Treesearch

John R. Withrow; John E. Lundquist; Jose F. Negron

2013-01-01

Bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) are mortality agents to multiple tree species throughout North America. Understanding spatiotemporal dynamics of these insects can assist management, prediction of outbreaks, and development of "real time" assessments of forest susceptibility incorporating insect population data. Here, dispersal of Douglas-...

Exploring space-time structure of human mobility in urban space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, J. B.; Yuan, J.; Wang, Y.; Si, H. B.; Shan, X. M.

2011-03-01

Understanding of human mobility in urban space benefits the planning and provision of municipal facilities and services. Due to the high penetration of cell phones, mobile cellular networks provide information for urban dynamics with a large spatial extent and continuous temporal coverage in comparison with traditional approaches. The original data investigated in this paper were collected by cellular networks in a southern city of China, recording the population distribution by dividing the city into thousands of pixels. The space-time structure of urban dynamics is explored by applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the original data, from temporal and spatial perspectives between which there is a dual relation. Based on the results of the analysis, we have discovered four underlying rules of urban dynamics: low intrinsic dimensionality, three categories of common patterns, dominance of periodic trends, and temporal stability. It implies that the space-time structure can be captured well by remarkably few temporal or spatial predictable periodic patterns, and the structure unearthed by PCA evolves stably over time. All these features play a critical role in the applications of forecasting and anomaly detection.

Solar Activity Across the Scales: From Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy N.; Kosovichev, Alexander G.; Mansour, Nagi N.; Wray, Alan A.

2017-01-01

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Solar activity across the scales: from small-scale quiet-Sun dynamics to magnetic activity cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitiashvili, I.; Collins, N.; Kosovichev, A. G.; Mansour, N. N.; Wray, A. A.

2017-12-01

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high-resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Coarse climate change projections for species living in a fine-scaled world.

PubMed

Nadeau, Christopher P; Urban, Mark C; Bridle, Jon R

2017-01-01

Accurately predicting biological impacts of climate change is necessary to guide policy. However, the resolution of climate data could be affecting the accuracy of climate change impact assessments. Here, we review the spatial and temporal resolution of climate data used in impact assessments and demonstrate that these resolutions are often too coarse relative to biologically relevant scales. We then develop a framework that partitions climate into three important components: trend, variance, and autocorrelation. We apply this framework to map different global climate regimes and identify where coarse climate data is most and least likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments. We show that impact assessments for many large mammals and birds use climate data with a spatial resolution similar to the biologically relevant area encompassing population dynamics. Conversely, impact assessments for many small mammals, herpetofauna, and plants use climate data with a spatial resolution that is orders of magnitude larger than the area encompassing population dynamics. Most impact assessments also use climate data with a coarse temporal resolution. We suggest that climate data with a coarse spatial resolution is likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments the most in climates with high spatial trend and variance (e.g., much of western North and South America) and the least in climates with low spatial trend and variance (e.g., the Great Plains of the USA). Climate data with a coarse temporal resolution is likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments the most in the northern half of the northern hemisphere where temporal climatic variance is high. Our framework provides one way to identify where improving the resolution of climate data will have the largest impact on the accuracy of biological predictions under climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A new spatial snow distribution in hydrological models parameterized from observed spatial variability of precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Weltzien, Ingunn

2016-04-01

The traditional catchment hydrological model with its many free calibration parameters is not a well suited tool for prediction under conditions for which is has not been calibrated. Important tasks for hydrological modelling such as prediction in ungauged basins and assessing hydrological effects of climate change are hence not solved satisfactory. In order to reduce the number of calibration parameters in hydrological models we have introduced a new model which uses a dynamic gamma distribution as the spatial frequency distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE). The parameters are estimated from observed spatial variability of precipitation and the magnitude of accumulation and melting events and are hence not subject to calibration. The relationship between spatial mean and variance of precipitation is found to follow a pattern where decreasing temporal correlation with increasing accumulation or duration of the event leads to a levelling off or even a decrease of the spatial variance. The new model for snow distribution is implemented in the, already parameter parsimonious, DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) hydrological model and was tested for 71 Norwegian catchments. We compared the new snow distribution model with the current operational snow distribution model where a fixed, calibrated coefficient of variation parameterizes a log-normal model for snow distribution. Results show that the precision of runoff simulations is equal, but that the new snow distribution model better simulates snow covered area (SCA) when compared with MODIS satellite derived snow cover. In addition, SWE is simulated more realistically in that seasonal snow is melted out and the building up of "snow towers" is prevented and hence spurious trends in SWE.

A compartmental-spatial system dynamics approach to ground water modeling.

PubMed

Roach, Jesse; Tidwell, Vince

2009-01-01

High-resolution, spatially distributed ground water flow models can prove unsuitable for the rapid, interactive analysis that is increasingly demanded to support a participatory decision environment. To address this shortcoming, we extend the idea of multiple cell (Bear 1979) and compartmental (Campana and Simpson 1984) ground water models developed within the context of spatial system dynamics (Ahmad and Simonovic 2004) for rapid scenario analysis. We term this approach compartmental-spatial system dynamics (CSSD). The goal is to balance spatial aggregation necessary to achieve a real-time integrative and interactive decision environment while maintaining sufficient model complexity to yield a meaningful representation of the regional ground water system. As a test case, a 51-compartment CSSD model was built and calibrated from a 100,0001 cell MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh 1988) model of the Albuquerque Basin in central New Mexico (McAda and Barroll 2002). Seventy-seven percent of historical drawdowns predicted by the MODFLOW model were within 1 m of the corresponding CSSD estimates, and in 80% of the historical model run years the CSSD model estimates of river leakage, reservoir leakage, ground water flow to agricultural drains, and riparian evapotranspiration were within 30% of the corresponding estimates from McAda and Barroll (2002), with improved model agreement during the scenario period. Comparisons of model results demonstrate both advantages and limitations of the CCSD model approach.

Prediction of Viking lander camera image quality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huck, F. O.; Burcher, E. E.; Jobson, D. J.; Wall, S. D.

1976-01-01

Formulations are presented that permit prediction of image quality as a function of camera performance, surface radiance properties, and lighting and viewing geometry. Predictions made for a wide range of surface radiance properties reveal that image quality depends strongly on proper camera dynamic range command and on favorable lighting and viewing geometry. Proper camera dynamic range commands depend mostly on the surface albedo that will be encountered. Favorable lighting and viewing geometries depend mostly on lander orientation with respect to the diurnal sun path over the landing site, and tend to be independent of surface albedo and illumination scattering function. Side lighting with low sun elevation angles (10 to 30 deg) is generally favorable for imaging spatial details and slopes, whereas high sun elevation angles are favorable for measuring spectral reflectances.

Sustainable and Smart City Planning Using Spatial Data in Wallonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenne, N.; Beaumont, B.; Hallot, E.; Wolff, E.; Poelmans, L.; Baltus, C.

2016-09-01

Simulating population distribution and land use changes in space and time offer opportunities for smart city planning. It provides a holistic and dynamic vision of fast changing urban environment to policy makers. Impacts, such as environmental and health risks or mobility issues, of policies can be assessed and adapted consequently. In this paper, we suppose that "Smart" city developments should be sustainable, dynamic and participative. This paper addresses these three smart objectives in the context of urban risk assessment in Wallonia, Belgium. The sustainable, dynamic and participative solution includes (i) land cover and land use mapping using remote sensing and GIS, (ii) population density mapping using dasymetric mapping, (iii) predictive modelling of land use changes and population dynamics and (iv) risk assessment. The comprehensive and long-term vision of the territory should help to draw sustainable spatial planning policies, to adapt remote sensing acquisition, to update GIS data and to refine risk assessment from regional to city scale.

How does the Xenopus laevis embryonic cell cycle avoid spatial chaos?

PubMed Central

Gelens, Lendert; Huang, Kerwyn Casey; Ferrell, James E.

2015-01-01

Summary Theoretical studies have shown that a deterministic biochemical oscillator can become chaotic when operating over a sufficiently large volume, and have suggested that the Xenopus laevis cell cycle oscillator operates close to such a chaotic regime. To experimentally test this hypothesis, we decreased the speed of the post-fertilization calcium wave, which had been predicted to generate chaos. However, cell divisions were found to develop normally and eggs developed into normal tadpoles. Motivated by these experiments, we carried out modeling studies to understand the prerequisites for the predicted spatial chaos. We showed that this type of spatial chaos requires oscillatory reaction dynamics with short pulse duration, and postulated that the mitotic exit in Xenopus laevis is likely slow enough to avoid chaos. In systems with shorter pulses, chaos may be an important hazard, as in cardiac arrhythmias, or a useful feature, as in the pigmentation of certain mollusk shells. PMID:26212326

Excellent approach to modeling urban expansion by fuzzy cellular automata: agent base model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajavigodellou, Yousef; Alesheikh, Ali A.; Mohammed, Abdulrazak A. S.; Chapi, Kamran

2014-09-01

Recently, the interaction between humans and their environment is the one of important challenges in the world. Landuse/ cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. The complexity and dynamics of urban systems make the applicable practice of urban modeling very difficult. With the increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data, micro-simulation such as the agent based and cellular automata simulation methods, has been developed by geographers, planners, and scholars, and it has shown great potential for representing and simulating the complexity of the dynamic processes involved in urban growth and land use change. This paper presents Fuzzy Cellular Automata in Geospatial Information System and remote Sensing to simulated and predicted urban expansion pattern. These FCA-based dynamic spatial urban models provide an improved ability to forecast and assess future urban growth and to create planning scenarios, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of simulations that correspond to urban planning and management policies. A fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on Land use change is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. The model integrates an ABM (agent-based model) and FCA (Fuzzy Cellular Automata) to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Based on this model rapid development and green land protection under the influences of the behaviors and decision modes of regional authority agents, real estate developer agents, resident agents and non- resident agents and their interactions have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Erbil metropolitan region.

Spatial-Sequential Working Memory in Younger and Older Adults: Age Predicts Backward Recall Performance within Both Age Groups

PubMed Central

Brown, Louise A.

2016-01-01

Working memory is vulnerable to age-related decline, but there is debate regarding the age-sensitivity of different forms of spatial-sequential working memory task, depending on their passive or active nature. The functional architecture of spatial working memory was therefore explored in younger (18–40 years) and older (64–85 years) adults, using passive and active recall tasks. Spatial working memory was assessed using a modified version of the Spatial Span subtest of the Wechsler Memory Scale – Third Edition (WMS-III; Wechsler, 1998). Across both age groups, the effects of interference (control, visual, or spatial), and recall type (forward and backward), were investigated. There was a clear effect of age group, with younger adults demonstrating a larger spatial working memory capacity than the older adults overall. There was also a specific effect of interference, with the spatial interference task (spatial tapping) reliably reducing performance relative to both the control and visual interference (dynamic visual noise) conditions in both age groups and both recall types. This suggests that younger and older adults have similar dependence upon active spatial rehearsal, and that both forward and backward recall require this processing capacity. Linear regression analyses were then carried out within each age group, to assess the predictors of performance in each recall format (forward and backward). Specifically the backward recall task was significantly predicted by age, within both the younger and older adult groups. This finding supports previous literature showing lifespan linear declines in spatial-sequential working memory, and in working memory tasks from other domains, but contrasts with previous evidence that backward spatial span is no more sensitive to aging than forward span. The study suggests that backward spatial span is indeed more processing-intensive than forward span, even when both tasks include a retention period, and that age predicts backward spatial span performance across the adult lifespan, within both younger and older adulthood. PMID:27757096

Spatial-Sequential Working Memory in Younger and Older Adults: Age Predicts Backward Recall Performance within Both Age Groups.

PubMed

Brown, Louise A

2016-01-01

Working memory is vulnerable to age-related decline, but there is debate regarding the age-sensitivity of different forms of spatial-sequential working memory task, depending on their passive or active nature. The functional architecture of spatial working memory was therefore explored in younger (18-40 years) and older (64-85 years) adults, using passive and active recall tasks. Spatial working memory was assessed using a modified version of the Spatial Span subtest of the Wechsler Memory Scale - Third Edition (WMS-III; Wechsler, 1998). Across both age groups, the effects of interference (control, visual, or spatial), and recall type (forward and backward), were investigated. There was a clear effect of age group, with younger adults demonstrating a larger spatial working memory capacity than the older adults overall. There was also a specific effect of interference, with the spatial interference task (spatial tapping) reliably reducing performance relative to both the control and visual interference (dynamic visual noise) conditions in both age groups and both recall types. This suggests that younger and older adults have similar dependence upon active spatial rehearsal, and that both forward and backward recall require this processing capacity. Linear regression analyses were then carried out within each age group, to assess the predictors of performance in each recall format (forward and backward). Specifically the backward recall task was significantly predicted by age, within both the younger and older adult groups. This finding supports previous literature showing lifespan linear declines in spatial-sequential working memory, and in working memory tasks from other domains, but contrasts with previous evidence that backward spatial span is no more sensitive to aging than forward span. The study suggests that backward spatial span is indeed more processing-intensive than forward span, even when both tasks include a retention period, and that age predicts backward spatial span performance across the adult lifespan, within both younger and older adulthood.

Short-term Temperature Prediction Using Adaptive Computing on Dynamic Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, W.; Cervone, G.; Jha, S.; Balasubramanian, V.; Turilli, M.

2017-12-01

When predicting temperature, there are specific places and times when high accuracy predictions are harder. For example, not all the sub-regions in the domain require the same amount of computing resources to generate an accurate prediction. Plateau areas might require less computing resources than mountainous areas because of the steeper gradient of temperature change in the latter. However, it is difficult to estimate beforehand the optimal allocation of computational resources because several parameters play a role in determining the accuracy of the forecasts, in addition to orography. The allocation of resources to perform simulations can become a bottleneck because it requires human intervention to stop jobs or start new ones. The goal of this project is to design and develop a dynamic approach to generate short-term temperature predictions that can automatically determines the required computing resources and the geographic scales of the predictions based on the spatial and temporal uncertainties. The predictions and the prediction quality metrics are computed using a numeric weather prediction model, Analog Ensemble (AnEn), and the parallelization on high performance computing systems is accomplished using Ensemble Toolkit, one component of the RADICAL-Cybertools family of tools. RADICAL-Cybertools decouple the science needs from the computational capabilities by building an intermediate layer to run general ensemble patterns, regardless of the science. In this research, we show how the ensemble toolkit allows generating high resolution temperature forecasts at different spatial and temporal resolution. The AnEn algorithm is run using NAM analysis and forecasts data for the continental United States for a period of 2 years. AnEn results show that temperature forecasts perform well according to different probabilistic and deterministic statistical tests.

A spectral-spatial-dynamic hierarchical Bayesian (SSD-HB) model for estimating soybean yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazama, Yoriko; Kujirai, Toshihiro

2014-10-01

A method called a "spectral-spatial-dynamic hierarchical-Bayesian (SSD-HB) model," which can deal with many parameters (such as spectral and weather information all together) by reducing the occurrence of multicollinearity, is proposed. Experiments conducted on soybean yields in Brazil fields with a RapidEye satellite image indicate that the proposed SSD-HB model can predict soybean yield with a higher degree of accuracy than other estimation methods commonly used in remote-sensing applications. In the case of the SSD-HB model, the mean absolute error between estimated yield of the target area and actual yield is 0.28 t/ha, compared to 0.34 t/ha when conventional PLS regression was applied, showing the potential effectiveness of the proposed model.

Investigation of Kibble-Zurek Quench Dynamics in a Spin-1 Ferromagnetic BEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anquez, Martin; Robbins, Bryce; Hoang, Thai; Yang, Xiaoyun; Land, Benjamin; Hamley, Christopher; Chapman, Michael

2014-05-01

We study the temporal evolution of spin populations in small spin-1 87Rb condensates following a slow quench. A ferromagnetic spin-1 BEC exhibits a second-order gapless (quantum) phase transition due to a competition between the magnetic and collisional spin interaction energies. The dynamics of slow quenches through the critical point are predicted to exhibit universal power-law scaling as a function of quench speed. In spatially extended condensates, these excitations are revealed as spatial spin domains. In small condensates, the excitations are manifest in the temporal evolution of the spin populations, illustrating a Kibble-Zurek type scaling. We will present the results of our investigation and compare them to full quantum simulations of the system.

Jupiter cloud composition, stratification, convection, and wave motion: a view from new horizons.

PubMed

Reuter, D C; Simon-Miller, A A; Lunsford, A; Baines, K H; Cheng, A F; Jennings, D E; Olkin, C B; Spencer, J R; Stern, S A; Weaver, H A; Young, L A

2007-10-12

Several observations of Jupiter's atmosphere made by instruments on the New Horizons spacecraft have implications for the stability and dynamics of Jupiter's weather layer. Mesoscale waves, first seen by Voyager, have been observed at a spatial resolution of 11 to 45 kilometers. These waves have a 300-kilometer wavelength and phase velocities greater than the local zonal flow by 100 meters per second, much higher than predicted by models. Additionally, infrared spectral measurements over five successive Jupiter rotations at spatial resolutions of 200 to 140 kilometers have shown the development of transient ammonia ice clouds (lifetimes of 40 hours or less) in regions of strong atmospheric upwelling. Both of these phenomena serve as probes of atmospheric dynamics below the visible cloud tops.

Predictive modeling of multicellular structure formation by using Cellular Particle Dynamics simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCune, Matthew; Shafiee, Ashkan; Forgacs, Gabor; Kosztin, Ioan

2014-03-01

Cellular Particle Dynamics (CPD) is an effective computational method for describing and predicting the time evolution of biomechanical relaxation processes of multicellular systems. A typical example is the fusion of spheroidal bioink particles during post bioprinting structure formation. In CPD cells are modeled as an ensemble of cellular particles (CPs) that interact via short-range contact interactions, characterized by an attractive (adhesive interaction) and a repulsive (excluded volume interaction) component. The time evolution of the spatial conformation of the multicellular system is determined by following the trajectories of all CPs through integration of their equations of motion. CPD was successfully applied to describe and predict the fusion of 3D tissue construct involving identical spherical aggregates. Here, we demonstrate that CPD can also predict tissue formation involving uneven spherical aggregates whose volumes decrease during the fusion process. Work supported by NSF [PHY-0957914]. Computer time provided by the University of Missouri Bioinformatics Consortium.

RIPARIAN VEGETATION AND CHANNEL MORPHOLOGY IMPACT ON SPATIAL PATTERNS OF WATER QUALITY IN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS

EPA Science Inventory

A model based on the KLS factors of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) accurately predicted temporal dynamics and relative peak levels of suspended solids, turbidity, and phosphorus in an agricultural watershed with well-protected streambanks and cultivation to the stream ed...

Cross-scale interactions, legacies, and spatial connectivity: integrating time and space to predict post-disturbance response across scales

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Emergent properties and cross-scale interactions are important in driving landscape-scale dynamics during a disturbance event, such as wildfire. We used these concepts related to changing pattern-process relationships across scales to explain ecological responses following disturbance that resulted ...

Applying Spatial-Temporal Model and Game Theory to Asymmetric Threat Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

Genshe Chen, Denis Garagic, Xiaohuan Tan, Dongxu Li, Dan Shen, Mo Wei, Xu Wang, “Team Dynamics and Tactics for Mission Planning,” Proceedings...Cruz, Jr., Genshe Chen, Dongxu Li, and Denis Garagic, “Target Selection in UAV Cooperative Control Under Uncertain Environment: Genetic Algorithm

Effects of human dynamics on epidemic spreading in Côte d'Ivoire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ruiqi; Wang, Wenxu; Di, Zengru

2017-02-01

Understanding and predicting outbreaks of contagious diseases are crucial to the development of society and public health, especially for underdeveloped countries. However, challenging problems are encountered because of complex epidemic spreading dynamics influenced by spatial structure and human dynamics (including both human mobility and human interaction intensity). We propose a systematical model to depict nationwide epidemic spreading in Côte d'Ivoire, which integrates multiple factors, such as human mobility, human interaction intensity, and demographic features. We provide insights to aid in modeling and predicting the epidemic spreading process by data-driven simulation and theoretical analysis, which is otherwise beyond the scope of local evaluation and geometrical views. We show that the requirement that the average local basic reproductive number to be greater than unity is not necessary for outbreaks of epidemics. The observed spreading phenomenon can be roughly explained as a heterogeneous diffusion-reaction process by redefining mobility distance according to the human mobility volume between nodes, which is beyond the geometrical viewpoint. However, the heterogeneity of human dynamics still poses challenges to precise prediction.

A distributed analysis of Human impact on global sediment dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S.; Kettner, A.; Syvitski, J. P.

2012-12-01

Understanding riverine sediment dynamics is an important undertaking for both socially-relevant issues such as agriculture, water security and infrastructure management and for scientific analysis of landscapes, river ecology, oceanography and other disciplines. Providing good quantitative and predictive tools in therefore timely particularly in light of predicted climate and landuse changes. Ever increasing human activity during the Anthropocene have affected sediment dynamics in two major ways: (1) an increase is hillslope erosion due to agriculture, deforestation and landscape engineering and (2) trapping of sediment in dams and other man-made reservoirs. The intensity and dynamics between these man-made factors vary widely across the globe and in time and are therefore hard to predict. Using sophisticated numerical models is therefore warranted. Here we use a distributed global riverine sediment flux and water discharge model (WBMsed) to compare a pristine (without human input) and disturbed (with human input) simulations. Using these 50 year simulations we will show and discuss the complex spatial and temporal patterns of human effect on riverine sediment flux and water discharge.

Dynamic stress changes during earthquake rupture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Day, S.M.; Yu, G.; Wald, D.J.

1998-01-01

We assess two competing dynamic interpretations that have been proposed for the short slip durations characteristic of kinematic earthquake models derived by inversion of earthquake waveform and geodetic data. The first interpretation would require a fault constitutive relationship in which rapid dynamic restrengthening of the fault surface occurs after passage of the rupture front, a hypothesized mechanical behavior that has been referred to as "self-healing." The second interpretation would require sufficient spatial heterogeneity of stress drop to permit rapid equilibration of elastic stresses with the residual dynamic friction level, a condition we refer to as "geometrical constraint." These interpretations imply contrasting predictions for the time dependence of the fault-plane shear stresses. We compare these predictions with dynamic shear stress changes for the 1992 Landers (M 7.3), 1994 Northridge (M 6.7), and 1995 Kobe (M 6.9) earthquakes. Stress changes are computed from kinematic slip models of these earthquakes, using a finite-difference method. For each event, static stress drop is highly variable spatially, with high stress-drop patches embedded in a background of low, and largely negative, stress drop. The time histories of stress change show predominantly monotonic stress change after passage of the rupture front, settling to a residual level, without significant evidence for dynamic restrengthening. The stress change at the rupture front is usually gradual rather than abrupt, probably reflecting the limited resolution inherent in the underlying kinematic inversions. On the basis of this analysis, as well as recent similar results obtained independently for the Kobe and Morgan Hill earthquakes, we conclude that, at the present time, the self-healing hypothesis is unnecessary to explain earthquake kinematics.

Competitive exclusion over broad spatial extents is a slow process: Evidence and implications for species distribution modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackulic, Charles B.

2016-01-01

There is considerable debate about the role of competition in shaping species distributions over broad spatial extents. This debate has practical implications because predicting changes in species' geographic ranges in response to ongoing environmental change would be simpler if competition could be ignored. While this debate has been the subject of many reviews, recent literature has not addressed the rates of relevant processes. This omission is surprising in that ecologists hypothesized decades ago that regional competitive exclusion is a slow process. The goal of this review is to reassess the debate under the hypothesis that competitive exclusion over broad spatial extents is a slow process.Available evidence, including simulations presented for the first time here, suggests that competitive exclusion over broad spatial extents occurs slowly over temporal extents of many decades to millennia. Ecologists arguing against an important role for competition frequently study modern patterns and/or range dynamics over periods of decades, while much of the evidence for competition shaping geographic ranges at broad spatial extents comes from paleoecological studies over time scales of centuries or longer. If competition is slow, as evidence suggests, the geographic distributions of some, perhaps many species, would continue to change over time scales of decades to millennia, even if environmental conditions did not continue to change. If the distributions of competing species are at equilibrium it is possible to predict species distributions based on observed species–environment relationships. However, disequilibrium is widespread as a result of competition and many other processes. Studies whose goal is accurate predictions over intermediate time scales (decades to centuries) should focus on factors associated with range expansion (colonization) and loss (local extinction), as opposed to current patterns. In general, understanding of modern range dynamics would be enhanced by considering the rates of relevant processes.

Three-Dimensional Water and Carbon Cycle Modeling at High Spatial-Temporal Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, C.; Zhuang, Q.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems in cryosphere are very sensitive to the global climate change due to the presence of snow covers, mountain glaciers and permafrost, especially when the increase in near surface air temperature is almost twice as large as the global average. However, few studies have investigated the water and carbon cycle dynamics using process-based hydrological and biogeochemistry modeling approach. In this study, we used three-dimensional modeling approach at high spatial-temporal resolutions to investigate the water and carbon cycle dynamics for the Tanana Flats Basin in interior Alaska with emphases on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics. The results have shown that: (1) lateral flow plays an important role in water and carbon cycle, especially in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics. (2) approximately 2.0 × 104 kg C yr-1 DOC is exported to the hydrological networks and it compromises 1% and 0.01% of total annual gross primary production (GPP) and total organic carbon stored in soil, respectively. This study has established an operational and flexible framework to investigate and predict the water and carbon cycle dynamics under the changing climate.

Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

DOE PAGES

Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; ...

2016-02-29

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this article, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on amore » literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Lastly, monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.« less

Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

PubMed Central

Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Regan, Helen M.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change. PMID:26929338

What Do They Have in Common? Drivers of Streamflow Spatial Correlation and Prediction of Flow Regimes in Ungauged Locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betterle, A.; Radny, D.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2017-12-01

The spatial correlation of daily streamflows represents a statistical index encapsulating the similarity between hydrographs at two arbitrary catchment outlets. In this work, a process-based analytical framework is utilized to investigate the hydrological drivers of streamflow spatial correlation through an extensive application to 78 pairs of stream gauges belonging to 13 unregulated catchments in the eastern United States. The analysis provides insight on how the observed heterogeneity of the physical processes that control flow dynamics ultimately affect streamflow correlation and spatial patterns of flow regimes. Despite the variability of recession properties across the study catchments, the impact of heterogeneous drainage rates on the streamflow spatial correlation is overwhelmed by the spatial variability of frequency and intensity of effective rainfall events. Overall, model performances are satisfactory, with root mean square errors between modeled and observed streamflow spatial correlation below 10% in most cases. We also propose a method for estimating streamflow correlation in the absence of discharge data, which proves useful to predict streamflow regimes in ungauged areas. The method consists in setting a minimum threshold on the modeled flow correlation to individuate hydrologically similar sites. Catchment outlets that are most correlated (ρ>0.9) are found to be characterized by analogous streamflow distributions across a broad range of flow regimes.

Spatial-temporal forecasting the sunspot diagram

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covas, Eurico

2017-09-01

Aims: We attempt to forecast the Sun's sunspot butterfly diagram in both space (I.e. in latitude) and time, instead of the usual one-dimensional time series forecasts prevalent in the scientific literature. Methods: We use a prediction method based on the non-linear embedding of data series in high dimensions. We use this method to forecast both in latitude (space) and in time, using a full spatial-temporal series of the sunspot diagram from 1874 to 2015. Results: The analysis of the results shows that it is indeed possible to reconstruct the overall shape and amplitude of the spatial-temporal pattern of sunspots, but that the method in its current form does not have real predictive power. We also apply a metric called structural similarity to compare the forecasted and the observed butterfly cycles, showing that this metric can be a useful addition to the usual root mean square error metric when analysing the efficiency of different prediction methods. Conclusions: We conclude that it is in principle possible to reconstruct the full sunspot butterfly diagram for at least one cycle using this approach and that this method and others should be explored since just looking at metrics such as sunspot count number or sunspot total area coverage is too reductive given the spatial-temporal dynamical complexity of the sunspot butterfly diagram. However, more data and/or an improved approach is probably necessary to have true predictive power.

Predictive Coding: A Fresh View of Inhibition in the Retina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, M. V.; Laughlin, S. B.; Dubs, A.

1982-11-01

Interneurons exhibiting centre--surround antagonism within their receptive fields are commonly found in peripheral visual pathways. We propose that this organization enables the visual system to encode spatial detail in a manner that minimizes the deleterious effects of intrinsic noise, by exploiting the spatial correlation that exists within natural scenes. The antagonistic surround takes a weighted mean of the signals in neighbouring receptors to generate a statistical prediction of the signal at the centre. The predicted value is subtracted from the actual centre signal, thus minimizing the range of outputs transmitted by the centre. In this way the entire dynamic range of the interneuron can be devoted to encoding a small range of intensities, thus rendering fine detail detectable against intrinsic noise injected at later stages in processing. This predictive encoding scheme also reduces spatial redundancy, thereby enabling the array of interneurons to transmit a larger number of distinguishable images, taking into account the expected structure of the visual world. The profile of the required inhibitory field is derived from statistical estimation theory. This profile depends strongly upon the signal: noise ratio and weakly upon the extent of lateral spatial correlation. The receptive fields that are quantitatively predicted by the theory resemble those of X-type retinal ganglion cells and show that the inhibitory surround should become weaker and more diffuse at low intensities. The latter property is unequivocally demonstrated in the first-order interneurons of the fly's compound eye. The theory is extended to the time domain to account for the phasic responses of fly interneurons. These comparisons suggest that, in the early stages of processing, the visual system is concerned primarily with coding the visual image to protect against subsequent intrinsic noise, rather than with reconstructing the scene or extracting specific features from it. The treatment emphasizes that a neuron's dynamic range should be matched to both its receptive field and the statistical properties of the visual pattern expected within this field. Finally, the analysis is synthetic because it is an extension of the background suppression hypothesis (Barlow & Levick 1976), satisfies the redundancy reduction hypothesis (Barlow 1961 a, b) and is equivalent to deblurring under certain conditions (Ratliff 1965).

Atomic force microscopy characterization of Zerodur mirror substrates for the extreme ultraviolet telescopes aboard NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory.

PubMed

Soufli, Regina; Baker, Sherry L; Windt, David L; Gullikson, Eric M; Robinson, Jeff C; Podgorski, William A; Golub, Leon

2007-06-01

The high-spatial frequency roughness of a mirror operating at extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wavelengths is crucial for the reflective performance and is subject to very stringent specifications. To understand and predict mirror performance, precision metrology is required for measuring the surface roughness. Zerodur mirror substrates made by two different polishing vendors for a suite of EUV telescopes for solar physics were characterized by atomic force microscopy (AFM). The AFM measurements revealed features in the topography of each substrate that are associated with specific polishing techniques. Theoretical predictions of the mirror performance based on the AFM-measured high-spatial-frequency roughness are in good agreement with EUV reflectance measurements of the mirrors after multilayer coating.

A Spatio-Temporal Enhancement Method for medium resolution LAI (STEM-LAI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houborg, Rasmus; McCabe, Matthew F.; Gao, Feng

2016-05-01

Satellite remote sensing has been used successfully to map leaf area index (LAI) across landscapes, but advances are still needed to exploit multi-scale data streams for producing LAI at both high spatial and temporal resolution. A multi-scale Spatio-Temporal Enhancement Method for medium resolution LAI (STEM-LAI) has been developed to generate 4-day time-series of Landsat-scale LAI from existing medium resolution LAI products. STEM-LAI has been designed to meet the demands of applications requiring frequent and spatially explicit information, such as effectively resolving rapidly evolving vegetation dynamics at sub-field (30 m) scales. In this study, STEM-LAI is applied to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) based LAI data and utilizes a reference-based regression tree approach for producing MODIS-consistent, but Landsat-based, LAI. The Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM) is used to interpolate the downscaled LAI between Landsat acquisition dates, providing a high spatial and temporal resolution improvement over existing LAI products. STARFM predicts high resolution LAI by blending MODIS and Landsat based information from a common acquisition date, with MODIS data from a prediction date. To demonstrate its capacity to reproduce fine-scale spatial features observed in actual Landsat LAI, the STEM-LAI approach is tested over an agricultural region in Nebraska. The implementation of a 250 m resolution LAI product, derived from MODIS 1 km data and using a scale consistent approach based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), is found to significantly improve accuracies of spatial pattern prediction, with the coefficient of efficiency (E) ranging from 0.77-0.94 compared to 0.01-0.85 when using 1 km LAI inputs alone. Comparisons against an 11-year record of in-situ measured LAI over maize and soybean highlight the utility of STEM-LAI in reproducing observed LAI dynamics (both characterized by r2 = 0.86) over a range of plant development stages. Overall, STEM-LAI represents an effective downscaling and temporal enhancement mechanism that predicts in-situ measured LAI better than estimates derived through linear interpolation between Landsat acquisitions. This is particularly true when the in-situ measurement date is greater than 10 days from the nearest Landsat acquisition, with prediction errors reduced by up to 50%. With a streamlined and completely automated processing interface, STEM-LAI represents a flexible tool for LAI disaggregation in space and time that is adaptable to different land cover types, landscape heterogeneities, and cloud cover conditions.

Modelling spatial patterns of urban growth in Africa

PubMed Central

Linard, Catherine; Tatem, Andrew J.; Gilbert, Marius

2013-01-01

The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving exceptionally high urban expansion rates that will induce significant socio-economic, environmental and health changes. In order to prepare for these changes, it is important to better understand urban growth dynamics in Africa and better predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions. Previous work on urban expansion has been carried out at the city level or at the global level with a relatively coarse 5–10 km resolution. The main objective of the present paper was to develop a modelling approach at an intermediate scale in order to identify factors that influence spatial patterns of urban expansion in Africa. Boosted Regression Tree models were developed to predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions in every large African city. Urban change data between circa 1990 and circa 2000 available for 20 large cities across Africa were used as training data. Results showed that the urban land in a 1 km neighbourhood and the accessibility to the city centre were the most influential variables. Results obtained were generally more accurate than results obtained using a distance-based urban expansion model and showed that the spatial pattern of small, compact and fast growing cities were easier to simulate than cities with lower population densities and a lower growth rate. The simulation method developed here will allow the production of spatially detailed urban expansion forecasts for 2020 and 2025 for Africa, data that are increasingly required by global change modellers. PMID:25152552

Towards a Predictive Theory of Malaria: Connections to Spatio-temporal Variability of Climate and Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endo, N.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2015-12-01

Malaria transmission is closely linked to climatology, hydrology, environment, and the biology of local vectors. These factors interact with each other and non-linearly influence malaria transmission dynamics, making prediction and prevention challenging. Our work attempts to find a universality in the multi-dimensional system of malaria transmission and to develop a theory to predict emergence of malaria given a limited set of environmental and biological inputs.A credible malaria transmission dynamics model, HYDREMATS (Bomblies et al., 2008), was used under hypothetical settings to investigate the role of spatial and temporal distribution of vector breeding pools. HYDREMATS is a mechanistic model and capable of simulating the basic reproduction rate (Ro) without bold assumptions even under dynamic conditions. The spatial distribution of pools is mainly governed by hydrological factors; the impact of pool persistence and rainy season length on malaria transmission were investigated. Also analyzed was the impact of the temporal distribution of pools relative to human houses. We developed non-dimensional variables combining the hydrological and biological parameters. Simulated values of Ro from HYDREMATS are presented in a newly-introduced non-dimensional plane, which leads to a some-what universal theory describing the condition for sustainable malaria transmission. The findings were tested against observations both from the West Africa and the Ethiopian Highland, representing diverse hydroclimatological conditions. Predicated Ro values from the theory over the two regions are in good agreement with the observed malaria transmission data.

Perception of the dynamic visual vertical during sinusoidal linear motion.

PubMed

Pomante, A; Selen, L P J; Medendorp, W P

2017-10-01

The vestibular system provides information for spatial orientation. However, this information is ambiguous: because the otoliths sense the gravitoinertial force, they cannot distinguish gravitational and inertial components. As a consequence, prolonged linear acceleration of the head can be interpreted as tilt, referred to as the somatogravic effect. Previous modeling work suggests that the brain disambiguates the otolith signal according to the rules of Bayesian inference, combining noisy canal cues with the a priori assumption that prolonged linear accelerations are unlikely. Within this modeling framework the noise of the vestibular signals affects the dynamic characteristics of the tilt percept during linear whole-body motion. To test this prediction, we devised a novel paradigm to psychometrically characterize the dynamic visual vertical-as a proxy for the tilt percept-during passive sinusoidal linear motion along the interaural axis (0.33 Hz motion frequency, 1.75 m/s 2 peak acceleration, 80 cm displacement). While subjects ( n =10) kept fixation on a central body-fixed light, a line was briefly flashed (5 ms) at different phases of the motion, the orientation of which had to be judged relative to gravity. Consistent with the model's prediction, subjects showed a phase-dependent modulation of the dynamic visual vertical, with a subject-specific phase shift with respect to the imposed acceleration signal. The magnitude of this modulation was smaller than predicted, suggesting a contribution of nonvestibular signals to the dynamic visual vertical. Despite their dampening effect, our findings may point to a link between the noise components in the vestibular system and the characteristics of dynamic visual vertical. NEW & NOTEWORTHY A fundamental question in neuroscience is how the brain processes vestibular signals to infer the orientation of the body and objects in space. We show that, under sinusoidal linear motion, systematic error patterns appear in the disambiguation of linear acceleration and spatial orientation. We discuss the dynamics of these illusory percepts in terms of a dynamic Bayesian model that combines uncertainty in the vestibular signals with priors based on the natural statistics of head motion. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Multidimensional spatial characterization of plant invasions in 'El Pinacate y Gran Desierto de Altar' Biosphere Reserve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez Flores, Erick

Invasive species are considered an agent of ecological change with more significant effects than global warming. Exotic plant invasions threaten biodiversity and ecosystem viability worldwide. Their effects in the Sonoran Desert ecosystems are a growing concern among ecologists and land managers. We hypothesized that highly dynamic desert environments are unstable, therefore more vulnerable to invasion by exotic plant species. To test this hypothesis we used a multidimensional approach to assess the spatial distribution of two exotic species: Brassica tournefortii (Saharan mustard) and Schismus arabicus (Arabian grass), in a portion of 'El Pinacate y Gran Desierto de Altar' Biosphere Reserve (PBR) in northwestern Sonora, Mexico. This approach combined genetic algorithms, geographic information systems, field methods, statistical analysis, and remote sensing modeling at multiple spatial and temporal scales to predict and test the current and potential distribution of the invasives over dynamic landscapes. Predicted probability of invasion was influenced strongly by human factors: Road networks were the strongest predictors of presence, revealing the potential importance of humans as vectors of invasiveness. Dynamic landscapes, associated mostly with vegetation losses, were detected spectrally in the eastern portion of the study area, very likely associated with past agricultural and current grazing activity. Combined models of high probability for invasion by B. tournefortii and S. arabicus over dynamic landscapes were tested against confirmed locations of the invasives and land cover types associated with invasion. Results confirmed the hypothesis of the study and suggest that more dynamic landscapes are more prone to invasion by these two exotic plants in the PBR. B. tournefortii was found associated mostly with landscapes occupied by microphyllous desert scrub and grassland, as well as sarcocaulescent desert scrub. S. arabicus was found more abundantly in the flat low lands occupied by microphyllous and crassicaulescent desert scrub. These relationships cannot, however, be conclusive and require further investigation due to the complex ecology of these invasives.

Local Competition and Metapopulation Processes Drive Long-Term Seagrass-Epiphyte Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Lobelle, Delphine; Kenyon, Emma J.; Cook, Kevan J.; Bull, James C.

2013-01-01

It is well known that ecological processes such as population regulation and natural enemy interactions potentially occur over a range of spatial scales, and there is a substantial body of literature developing theoretical understanding of the interplay between these processes. However, there are comparatively few studies quantifying the long-term effects of spatial scaling in natural ecosystems. A key challenge is that trophic complexity in real-world biological communities quickly obscures the signal from a focal process. Seagrass meadows provide an excellent opportunity in this respect: in many instances, seagrasses effectively form extensive natural monocultures, in which hypotheses about endogenous dynamics can be formulated and tested. We present amongst the longest unbroken, spatially explict time series of seagrass abundance published to date. Data include annual measures of shoot density, total above-ground abundance, and associated epiphyte cover from five Zostera marina meadows distributed around the Isles of Scilly, UK, from 1996 to 2011. We explore empirical patterns at the local and metapopulation scale using standard time series analysis and develop a simple population dynamic model, testing the hypothesis that both local and metapopulation scale feedback processes are important. We find little evidence of an interaction between scales in seagrass dynamics but that both scales contribute approximately equally to observed local epiphyte abundance. By quantifying the long-term dynamics of seagrass-epiphyte interactions we show how measures of density and extent are both important in establishing baseline information relevant to predicting responses to environmental change and developing management plans. We hope that this study complements existing mechanistic studies of physiology, genetics and productivity in seagrass, whilst highlighting the potential of seagrass as a model ecosystem. More generally, this study provides a rare opportunity to test some of the predictions of ecological theory in a natural ecosystem of global conservation and economic value. PMID:23437313

Local competition and metapopulation processes drive long-term seagrass-epiphyte population dynamics.

PubMed

Lobelle, Delphine; Kenyon, Emma J; Cook, Kevan J; Bull, James C

2013-01-01

It is well known that ecological processes such as population regulation and natural enemy interactions potentially occur over a range of spatial scales, and there is a substantial body of literature developing theoretical understanding of the interplay between these processes. However, there are comparatively few studies quantifying the long-term effects of spatial scaling in natural ecosystems. A key challenge is that trophic complexity in real-world biological communities quickly obscures the signal from a focal process. Seagrass meadows provide an excellent opportunity in this respect: in many instances, seagrasses effectively form extensive natural monocultures, in which hypotheses about endogenous dynamics can be formulated and tested. We present amongst the longest unbroken, spatially explict time series of seagrass abundance published to date. Data include annual measures of shoot density, total above-ground abundance, and associated epiphyte cover from five Zostera marina meadows distributed around the Isles of Scilly, UK, from 1996 to 2011. We explore empirical patterns at the local and metapopulation scale using standard time series analysis and develop a simple population dynamic model, testing the hypothesis that both local and metapopulation scale feedback processes are important. We find little evidence of an interaction between scales in seagrass dynamics but that both scales contribute approximately equally to observed local epiphyte abundance. By quantifying the long-term dynamics of seagrass-epiphyte interactions we show how measures of density and extent are both important in establishing baseline information relevant to predicting responses to environmental change and developing management plans. We hope that this study complements existing mechanistic studies of physiology, genetics and productivity in seagrass, whilst highlighting the potential of seagrass as a model ecosystem. More generally, this study provides a rare opportunity to test some of the predictions of ecological theory in a natural ecosystem of global conservation and economic value.

Beta Oscillatory Dynamics in the Prefrontal and Superior Temporal Cortices Predict Spatial Working Memory Performance.

PubMed

Proskovec, Amy L; Wiesman, Alex I; Heinrichs-Graham, Elizabeth; Wilson, Tony W

2018-05-31

The oscillatory dynamics serving spatial working memory (SWM), and how such dynamics relate to performance, are poorly understood. To address these topics, the present study recruited 22 healthy adults to perform a SWM task during magnetoencephalography (MEG). The resulting MEG data were transformed into the time-frequency domain, and significant oscillatory responses were imaged using a beamformer. Voxel time series data were extracted from the cluster peaks to quantify the dynamics, while whole-brain partial correlation maps were computed to identify regions where oscillatory strength varied with accuracy on the SWM task. The results indicated transient theta oscillations in spatially distinct subregions of the prefrontal cortices at the onset of encoding and maintenance, which may underlie selection of goal-relevant information. Additionally, strong and persistent decreases in alpha and beta oscillations were observed throughout encoding and maintenance in parietal, temporal, and occipital regions, which could serve sustained attention and maintenance processes during SWM performance. The neuro-behavioral correlations revealed that beta activity within left dorsolateral prefrontal control regions and bilateral superior temporal integration regions was negatively correlated with SWM accuracy. Notably, this is the first study to employ a whole-brain approach to significantly link neural oscillations to behavioral performance in the context of SWM.

Detecting, anticipating, and predicting critical transitions in spatially extended systems.

PubMed

Kwasniok, Frank

2018-03-01

A data-driven linear framework for detecting, anticipating, and predicting incipient bifurcations in spatially extended systems based on principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis is discussed. The dynamics are assumed to be governed by a system of linear stochastic differential equations which is estimated from the data. The principal modes of the system together with corresponding decay or growth rates and oscillation frequencies are extracted as the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the system matrix. The method can be applied to stationary datasets to identify the least stable modes and assess the proximity to instability; it can also be applied to nonstationary datasets using a sliding window approach to track the changing eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the system. As a further step, a genuinely nonstationary POP analysis is introduced. Here, the system matrix of the linear stochastic model is time-dependent, allowing for extrapolation and prediction of instabilities beyond the learning data window. The methods are demonstrated and explored using the one-dimensional Swift-Hohenberg equation as an example, focusing on the dynamics of stochastic fluctuations around the homogeneous stable state prior to the first bifurcation. The POP-based techniques are able to extract and track the least stable eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the system; the nonstationary POP analysis successfully predicts the timing of the first instability and the unstable mode well beyond the learning data window.

Detecting, anticipating, and predicting critical transitions in spatially extended systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwasniok, Frank

2018-03-01

A data-driven linear framework for detecting, anticipating, and predicting incipient bifurcations in spatially extended systems based on principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis is discussed. The dynamics are assumed to be governed by a system of linear stochastic differential equations which is estimated from the data. The principal modes of the system together with corresponding decay or growth rates and oscillation frequencies are extracted as the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the system matrix. The method can be applied to stationary datasets to identify the least stable modes and assess the proximity to instability; it can also be applied to nonstationary datasets using a sliding window approach to track the changing eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the system. As a further step, a genuinely nonstationary POP analysis is introduced. Here, the system matrix of the linear stochastic model is time-dependent, allowing for extrapolation and prediction of instabilities beyond the learning data window. The methods are demonstrated and explored using the one-dimensional Swift-Hohenberg equation as an example, focusing on the dynamics of stochastic fluctuations around the homogeneous stable state prior to the first bifurcation. The POP-based techniques are able to extract and track the least stable eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the system; the nonstationary POP analysis successfully predicts the timing of the first instability and the unstable mode well beyond the learning data window.

Nonlinear dynamics in flow through unsaturated fractured-porous media: Status and perspectives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faybishenko, Boris

2002-11-27

The need has long been recognized to improve predictions of flow and transport in partially saturated heterogeneous soils and fractured rock of the vadose zone for many practical applications, such as remediation of contaminated sites, nuclear waste disposal in geological formations, and climate predictions. Until recently, flow and transport processes in heterogeneous subsurface media with oscillating irregularities were assumed to be random and were not analyzed using methods of nonlinear dynamics. The goals of this paper are to review the theoretical concepts, present the results, and provide perspectives on investigations of flow and transport in unsaturated heterogeneous soils and fracturedmore » rock, using the methods of nonlinear dynamics and deterministic chaos. The results of laboratory and field investigations indicate that the nonlinear dynamics of flow and transport processes in unsaturated soils and fractured rocks arise from the dynamic feedback and competition between various nonlinear physical processes along with complex geometry of flow paths. Although direct measurements of variables characterizing the individual flow processes are not technically feasible, their cumulative effect can be characterized by analyzing time series data using the models and methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos. Identifying flow through soil or rock as a nonlinear dynamical system is important for developing appropriate short- and long-time predictive models, evaluating prediction uncertainty, assessing the spatial distribution of flow characteristics from time series data, and improving chemical transport simulations. Inferring the nature of flow processes through the methods of nonlinear dynamics could become widely used in different areas of the earth sciences.« less

Global patterns and predictors of fish species richness in estuaries.

PubMed

Vasconcelos, Rita P; Henriques, Sofia; França, Susana; Pasquaud, Stéphanie; Cardoso, Inês; Laborde, Marina; Cabral, Henrique N

2015-09-01

1. Knowledge of global patterns of biodiversity and regulating variables is indispensable to develop predictive models. 2. The present study used predictive modelling approaches to investigate hypotheses that explain the variation in fish species richness between estuaries over a worldwide spatial extent. Ultimately, such models will allow assessment of future changes in ecosystem structure and function as a result of environmental changes. 3. A comprehensive worldwide data base was compiled of the fish assemblage composition and environmental characteristics of estuaries. Generalized Linear Models were used to quantify how variation in species richness among estuaries is related to historical events, energy dynamics and ecosystem characteristics, while controlling for sampling effects. 4. At the global extent, species richness differed among marine biogeographic realms and continents and increased with mean sea surface temperature, terrestrial net primary productivity and the stability of connectivity with a marine ecosystem (open vs. temporarily open estuaries). At a smaller extent (within a marine biogeographic realm or continent), other characteristics were also important in predicting variation in species richness, with species richness increasing with estuary area and continental shelf width. 5. The results suggest that species richness in an estuary is defined by predictors that are spatially hierarchical. Over the largest spatial extents, species richness is influenced by the broader distributions and habitat use patterns of marine and freshwater species that can colonize estuaries, which are in turn governed by history contingency, energy dynamics and productivity variables. Species richness is also influenced by more regional and local parameters that can further affect the process of community colonization in an estuary including the connectivity of the estuary with the adjacent marine habitat, and, over smaller spatial extents, the size of these habitats. In summary, patterns of species richness in estuaries across large spatial extents seem to reflect from global to local processes acting on community colonization. The importance of considering spatial extent, sampling effects and of combining history and contemporary environmental characteristics when exploring biodiversity is highlighted. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons on behalf of the British Ecological Society.

Towards an eco-phylogenetic framework for infectious disease ecology.

PubMed

Fountain-Jones, Nicholas M; Pearse, William D; Escobar, Luis E; Alba-Casals, Ana; Carver, Scott; Davies, T Jonathan; Kraberger, Simona; Papeş, Monica; Vandegrift, Kurt; Worsley-Tonks, Katherine; Craft, Meggan E

2018-05-01

Identifying patterns and drivers of infectious disease dynamics across multiple scales is a fundamental challenge for modern science. There is growing awareness that it is necessary to incorporate multi-host and/or multi-parasite interactions to understand and predict current and future disease threats better, and new tools are needed to help address this task. Eco-phylogenetics (phylogenetic community ecology) provides one avenue for exploring multi-host multi-parasite systems, yet the incorporation of eco-phylogenetic concepts and methods into studies of host pathogen dynamics has lagged behind. Eco-phylogenetics is a transformative approach that uses evolutionary history to infer present-day dynamics. Here, we present an eco-phylogenetic framework to reveal insights into parasite communities and infectious disease dynamics across spatial and temporal scales. We illustrate how eco-phylogenetic methods can help untangle the mechanisms of host-parasite dynamics from individual (e.g. co-infection) to landscape scales (e.g. parasite/host community structure). An improved ecological understanding of multi-host and multi-pathogen dynamics across scales will increase our ability to predict disease threats. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Markov Chains for Investigating and Predicting Migration: A Case from Southwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Bo; Wang, Yiyu; Xu, Haoming

2018-03-01

In order to accurately predict the population’s happiness, this paper conducted two demographic surveys on a new district of a city in western China, and carried out a dynamic analysis using related mathematical methods. This paper argues that the migration of migrants in the city will change the pattern of spatial distribution of human resources in the city and thus affect the social and economic development in all districts. The migration status of the population will change randomly with the passage of time, so it can be predicted and analyzed through the Markov process. The Markov process provides the local government and decision-making bureau a valid basis for the dynamic analysis of the mobility of migrants in the city as well as the ways for promoting happiness of local people’s lives.

Anthropogenic Land-use Change and the Dynamics of Amazon Forest Biomass

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laurance, William F.

2004-01-01

This project was focused on assessing the effects of prevailing land uses, such as habitat fragmentation, selective logging, and fire, on biomass and carbon storage in Amazonian forests, and on the dynamics of carbon sequestration in regenerating forests. Ancillary goals included developing GIs models to help predict the future condition of Amazonian forests, and assessing the effects of anthropogenic climate change and ENS0 droughts on intact and fragmented forests. Ground-based studies using networks of permanent plots were linked with remote-sensing data (including Landsat TM and AVHRR) at regional scales, and higher-resolution techniques (IKONOS imagery, videography, LIDAR, aerial photographs) at landscape and local scales. The project s specific goals were quite eclectic and included: Determining the effects of habitat fragmentation on forest dynamics, floristic composition, and the various components of above- and below-ground biomass. Assessing historical and physical factors that affect trajectories of forest regeneration and carbon sequestration on abandoned lands. Extrapolating results from local studies of biomass dynamics in fragmented and regenerating forests to landscape and regional scales in Amazonia, using remote sensing and GIS. Testing the hypothesis that intact Amazonian forests are functioning as a significant carbon sink. Examining destructive synergisms between forest fragmentation and fire. Assessing the short-term impacts of selective logging on aboveground biomass. Developing GIS models that integrate current spatial data on forest cover, deforestation, logging, mining, highway and roads, navigable rivers, vulnerability to wild fires, protected areas, and existing and planned infrastructure projects, in an effort to predict the future condition of Brazilian Amazonian forests over the next 20-25 years. Devising predictive spatial models to assess the influence of varied biophysical and anthropogenic predictors on Amazonian deforestation.

Influence of Elevation Data Resolution on Spatial Prediction of Colluvial Soils in a Luvisol Region

PubMed Central

Penížek, Vít; Zádorová, Tereza; Kodešová, Radka; Vaněk, Aleš

2016-01-01

The development of a soil cover is a dynamic process. Soil cover can be altered within a few decades, which requires updating of the legacy soil maps. Soil erosion is one of the most important processes quickly altering soil cover on agriculture land. Colluvial soils develop in concave parts of the landscape as a consequence of sedimentation of eroded material. Colluvial soils are recognised as important soil units because they are a vast sink of soil organic carbon. Terrain derivatives became an important tool in digital soil mapping and are among the most popular auxiliary data used for quantitative spatial prediction. Prediction success rates are often directly dependent on raster resolution. In our study, we tested how raster resolution (1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 20 and 30 meters) influences spatial prediction of colluvial soils. Terrain derivatives (altitude, slope, plane curvature, topographic position index, LS factor and convergence index) were calculated for the given raster resolutions. Four models were applied (boosted tree, neural network, random forest and Classification/Regression Tree) to spatially predict the soil cover over a 77 ha large study plot. Models training and validation was based on 111 soil profiles surveyed on a regular sampling grid. Moreover, the predicted real extent and shape of the colluvial soil area was examined. In general, no clear trend in the accuracy prediction was found without the given raster resolution range. Higher maximum prediction accuracy for colluvial soil, compared to prediction accuracy of total soil cover of the study plot, can be explained by the choice of terrain derivatives that were best for Colluvial soils differentiation from other soil units. Regarding the character of the predicted Colluvial soils area, maps of 2 to 10 m resolution provided reasonable delineation of the colluvial soil as part of the cover over the study area. PMID:27846230

Stress during pregnancy alters temporal and spatial dynamics of the maternal and offspring microbiome in a sex-specific manner

PubMed Central

Jašarević, Eldin; Howard, Christopher D.; Misic, Ana M.; Beiting, Daniel P.; Bale, Tracy L.

2017-01-01

The microbiome is a regulator of host immunity, metabolism, neurodevelopment, and behavior. During early life, bacterial communities within maternal gut and vaginal compartments can have an impact on directing these processes. Maternal stress experience during pregnancy may impact offspring development by altering the temporal and spatial dynamics of the maternal microbiome during pregnancy. To examine the hypothesis that maternal stress disrupts gut and vaginal microbial dynamics during critical prenatal and postnatal windows, we used high-resolution 16S rRNA marker gene sequencing to examine outcomes in our mouse model of early prenatal stress. Consistent with predictions, maternal fecal communities shift across pregnancy, a process that is disrupted by stress. Vaginal bacterial community structure and composition exhibit lasting disruption following stress exposure. Comparison of maternal and offspring microbiota revealed that similarities in bacterial community composition was predicted by a complex interaction between maternal body niche and offspring age and sex. Importantly, early prenatal stress influenced offspring bacterial community assembly in a temporal and sex-specific manner. Taken together, our results demonstrate that early prenatal stress may influence offspring development through converging modifications to gut microbial composition during pregnancy and transmission of dysbiotic vaginal microbiome at birth. PMID:28266645

An innovations approach to decoupling of multibody dynamics and control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, G.

1989-01-01

The problem of hinged multibody dynamics is solved using an extension of the innovations approach of linear filtering and prediction theory to the problem of mechanical system modeling and control. This approach has been used quite effectively to diagonalize the equations for filtering and prediction for linear state space systems. It has similar advantages in the study of dynamics and control of multibody systems. The innovations approach advanced here consists of expressing the equations of motion in terms of two closely related processes: (1) the innovations process e, a sequence of moments, obtained from the applied moments T by means of a spatially recursive Kalman filter that goes from the tip of the manipulator to its base; (2) a residual process, a sequence of velocities, obtained from the joint-angle velocities by means of an outward smoothing operations. The innovations e and the applied moments T are related by means of the relationships e = (I - L)T and T = (I + K)e. The operation (I - L) is a causal lower triangular matrix which is generated by a spatially recursive Kalman filter and the corresponding discrete-step Riccati equation. Hence, the innovations and the applied moments can be obtained from each other by means of a causal operation which is itself casually invertible.

A comparative analysis reveals weak relationships between ecological factors and beta diversity of stream insect metacommunities at two spatial levels.

PubMed

Heino, Jani; Melo, Adriano S; Bini, Luis Mauricio; Altermatt, Florian; Al-Shami, Salman A; Angeler, David G; Bonada, Núria; Brand, Cecilia; Callisto, Marcos; Cottenie, Karl; Dangles, Olivier; Dudgeon, David; Encalada, Andrea; Göthe, Emma; Grönroos, Mira; Hamada, Neusa; Jacobsen, Dean; Landeiro, Victor L; Ligeiro, Raphael; Martins, Renato T; Miserendino, María Laura; Md Rawi, Che Salmah; Rodrigues, Marciel E; Roque, Fabio de Oliveira; Sandin, Leonard; Schmera, Denes; Sgarbi, Luciano F; Simaika, John P; Siqueira, Tadeu; Thompson, Ross M; Townsend, Colin R

2015-03-01

The hypotheses that beta diversity should increase with decreasing latitude and increase with spatial extent of a region have rarely been tested based on a comparative analysis of multiple datasets, and no such study has focused on stream insects. We first assessed how well variability in beta diversity of stream insect metacommunities is predicted by insect group, latitude, spatial extent, altitudinal range, and dataset properties across multiple drainage basins throughout the world. Second, we assessed the relative roles of environmental and spatial factors in driving variation in assemblage composition within each drainage basin. Our analyses were based on a dataset of 95 stream insect metacommunities from 31 drainage basins distributed around the world. We used dissimilarity-based indices to quantify beta diversity for each metacommunity and, subsequently, regressed beta diversity on insect group, latitude, spatial extent, altitudinal range, and dataset properties (e.g., number of sites and percentage of presences). Within each metacommunity, we used a combination of spatial eigenfunction analyses and partial redundancy analysis to partition variation in assemblage structure into environmental, shared, spatial, and unexplained fractions. We found that dataset properties were more important predictors of beta diversity than ecological and geographical factors across multiple drainage basins. In the within-basin analyses, environmental and spatial variables were generally poor predictors of variation in assemblage composition. Our results revealed deviation from general biodiversity patterns because beta diversity did not show the expected decreasing trend with latitude. Our results also call for reconsideration of just how predictable stream assemblages are along ecological gradients, with implications for environmental assessment and conservation decisions. Our findings may also be applicable to other dynamic systems where predictability is low.

Species and temperature measurement in H2/O2 rocket flow fields by means of Raman scattering diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Degroot, Wim A.; Weiss, Jonathan M.

1992-01-01

Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes developed for prediction and evaluation of rocket performance is hampered by a lack of experimental data. Non-intrusive laser based diagnostics are needed to provide spatially and temporally resolved gas dynamic and fluid dynamic measurements. This paper reports the first non-intrusive temperature and species measurements in the plume of a 110 N gaseous hydrogen/oxygen thruster at and below ambient pressures, obtained with spontaneous Raman spectroscopy. Measurements at 10 mm downstream of the exit plane are compared with predictions from a numerical solution of the axisymmetric Navier-Stokes and species transport equations with chemical kinetics, which fully model the combustor-nozzle-plume flowfield. The experimentally determined oxygen number density at the centerline at 10 mm downstream of the exit plane is four times that predicted by the model. The experimental number density data fall between those numerically predicted for the exit and 10 mm downstream planes in both magnitude and radial gradient. The predicted temperature levels are within 10 to 15 percent of measured values. Some of the discrepancies between experimental data and predictions result from not modeling the three dimensional core flow injection mixing process, facility back pressure effects, and possible diffuser-thruster interactions.

Representing climate, disturbance, and vegetation interactions in landscape models

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Donald McKenzie; Donald A. Falk; Erica A.H. Smithwick; Carol Miller; Lara-Karena B. Kellogg

2015-01-01

The prospect of rapidly changing climates over the next century calls for methods to predict their effects on myriad, interactive ecosystem processes. Spatially explicit models that simulate ecosystem dynamics at fine (plant, stand) to coarse (regional, global) scales are indispensable tools for meeting this challenge under a variety of possible futures. A special...

North American pulp & paper model (NAPAP)

Treesearch

Peter J. Ince; Joseph Buongiorno

2007-01-01

This chapter describes the development and structure of the NAPAP model and compares it to other forest sector models. The NAPAP model was based on PELPS and adapted to describe paper and paperboard product demand, pulpwood and recovered paper supply, and production capacity and technology, with spatially dynamic market equilibria. We describe how the model predicts...

An integrated view of complex landscapes: a big data-model integration approach to trans-disciplinary science

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Earth is a complex system comprised of many interacting spatial and temporal scales. Understanding, predicting, and managing for these dynamics requires a trans-disciplinary integrated approach. Although there have been calls for this integration, a general approach is needed. We developed a Tra...

Global, spatial, and temporal sensitivity analysis for a complex pesticide fate and transport model.

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Questions/Methods As one ofthe most heavily used exposure models by U.S. EPA, Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM) is a one-dimensional, dynamic, compartment model that predicts the fate and transport of a pesticide in the unsaturated soil system around a plant's root zo...

Coupling among Microbial Communities, Biogeochemistry, and Mineralogy across Biogeochemical Facies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stegen, James C.; Konopka, Allan; McKinely, Jim

Physical properties of sediments are commonly used to define subsurface lithofacies and these same physical properties influence subsurface microbial communities. This suggests an (unexploited) opportunity to use the spatial distribution of facies to predict spatial variation in biogeochemically relevant microbial attributes. Here, we characterize three biogeochemical facies—oxidized, reduced, and transition—within one lithofacies and elucidate relationships among facies features and microbial community biomass, diversity, and community composition. Consistent with previous observations of biogeochemical hotspots at environmental transition zones, we find elevated biomass within a biogeochemical facies that occurred at the transition between oxidized and reduced biogeochemical facies. Microbial diversity—the number ofmore » microbial taxa—was lower within the reduced facies and was well-explained by a combination of pH and mineralogy. Null modeling revealed that microbial community composition was influenced by ecological selection imposed by redox state and mineralogy, possibly due to effects on nutrient availability or transport. As an illustrative case, we predict microbial biomass concentration across a three-dimensional spatial domain by coupling the spatial distribution of subsurface biogeochemical facies with biomass-facies relationships revealed here. We expect that merging such an approach with hydro-biogeochemical models will provide important constraints on simulated dynamics, thereby reducing uncertainty in model predictions.« less

Modeling the Impact of Spatial Structure on Growth Dynamics of Invasive Plant Species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, James T.; Johnson, Mark P.; Walshe, Ray

2013-07-01

Invasive nonindigenous plant species can have potentially serious detrimental effects on local ecosystems and, as a result, costly control efforts often have to be put in place to protect habitats. An example of an invasive problem on a global scale involves the salt marsh grass species from the genus Spartina. The spread of Spartina anglica in Europe and Asia has drawn much concern due to its ability to convert coastal habitats into cord-grass monocultures and to alter the native food webs. However, the patterns of invasion of Spartina species are amenable to spatially-explicit modeling strategies that take into account both temporal and spatio-temporal processes. In this study, an agent-based model of Spartina growth on a simulated mud flat environment was developed in order to study the effects of spatial pattern and initial seedling placement on the invasion dynamics of the population. The spatial pattern of an invasion plays a key role in the rate of spread of the species and understanding this can lead to significant cost savings when designing efficient control strategies. We present here a model framework that can be used to explicitly represent complex spatial and temporal patterns of invasion in order to be able to predict quantitatively the impact of these factors on invasion dynamics. This would be a useful tool for assessing eradication strategies and choosing optimal control solutions in order to be able to minimize future control costs.

Linking genetic and environmental factors in amphibian disease risk

PubMed Central

Savage, Anna E; Becker, Carlos G; Zamudio, Kelly R

2015-01-01

A central question in evolutionary biology is how interactions between organisms and the environment shape genetic differentiation. The pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused variable population declines in the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis); thus, disease has potentially shaped, or been shaped by, host genetic diversity. Environmental factors can also influence both amphibian immunity and Bd virulence, confounding our ability to assess the genetic effects on disease dynamics. Here, we used genetics, pathogen dynamics, and environmental data to characterize L. yavapaiensis populations, estimate migration, and determine relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors in predicting Bd dynamics. We found that the two uninfected populations belonged to a single genetic deme, whereas each infected population was genetically unique. We detected an outlier locus that deviated from neutral expectations and was significantly correlated with mortality within populations. Across populations, only environmental variables predicted infection intensity, whereas environment and genetics predicted infection prevalence, and genetic diversity alone predicted mortality. At one locality with geothermally elevated water temperatures, migration estimates revealed source–sink dynamics that have likely prevented local adaptation. We conclude that integrating genetic and environmental variation among populations provides a better understanding of Bd spatial epidemiology, generating more effective conservation management strategies for mitigating amphibian declines. PMID:26136822

A Dynamic Framework for Water Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, Veena; Konar, Megan; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2017-04-01

Water security is a multi-faceted problem, going beyond mere balancing of supply and demand. Conventional attempts to quantify water security starting rely on static indices at a particular place and point in time. While these are simple and scalable, they lack predictive or explanatory power. 1) Most static indices focus on specific spatial scales and largely ignore cross-scale feedbacks between human and water systems. 2) They fail to account for the increasing spatial specialization in the modern world - some regions are cities others are agricultural breadbaskets; so water security means different things in different places. Human adaptation to environmental change necessitates a dynamic view of water security. We present a framework that defines water security as an emergent outcome of a coupled socio-hydrologic system. Over the medium term (5-25 years), water security models might hold governance, culture and infrastructure constant, but allow humans to respond to changes and thus predict how water security would evolve. But over very long time-frames (25-100 years), a society's values, norms and beliefs themselves may themselves evolve; these in turn may prompt changes in policy, governance and infrastructure. Predictions of water security in the long term involve accounting for such regime shifts in the cultural and political context of a watershed by allowing the governing equations of the models to change.

A Bayesian approach to estimate the biomass of anchovies off the coast of Perú.

PubMed

Quiroz, Zaida C; Prates, Marcos O; Rue, Håvard

2015-03-01

The Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS) is the world's most productive ecosystem in terms of fish. In particular, the Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) is the major prey of the main top predators, like seabirds, fish, humans, and other mammals. In this context, it is important to understand the dynamics of the anchovy distribution to preserve it as well as to exploit its economic capacities. Using the data collected by the "Instituto del Mar del Perú" (IMARPE) during a scientific survey in 2005, we present a statistical analysis that has as main goals: (i) to adapt to the characteristics of the sampled data, such as spatial dependence, high proportions of zeros and big size of samples; (ii) to provide important insights on the dynamics of the anchovy population; and (iii) to propose a model for estimation and prediction of anchovy biomass in the NHCS offshore from Perú. These data were analyzed in a Bayesian framework using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method. Further, to select the best model and to study the predictive power of each model, we performed model comparisons and predictive checks, respectively. Finally, we carried out a Bayesian spatial influence diagnostic for the preferred model. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Selective sweeps in growing microbial colonies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korolev, Kirill S.; Müller, Melanie J. I.; Karahan, Nilay; Murray, Andrew W.; Hallatschek, Oskar; Nelson, David R.

2012-04-01

Evolutionary experiments with microbes are a powerful tool to study mutations and natural selection. These experiments, however, are often limited to the well-mixed environments of a test tube or a chemostat. Since spatial organization can significantly affect evolutionary dynamics, the need is growing for evolutionary experiments in spatially structured environments. The surface of a Petri dish provides such an environment, but a more detailed understanding of microbial growth on Petri dishes is necessary to interpret such experiments. We formulate a simple deterministic reaction-diffusion model, which successfully predicts the spatial patterns created by two competing species during colony expansion. We also derive the shape of these patterns analytically without relying on microscopic details of the model. In particular, we find that the relative fitness of two microbial strains can be estimated from the logarithmic spirals created by selective sweeps. The theory is tested with strains of the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae for spatial competitions with different initial conditions and for a range of relative fitnesses. The reaction-diffusion model also connects the microscopic parameters like growth rates and diffusion constants with macroscopic spatial patterns and predicts the relationship between fitness in liquid cultures and on Petri dishes, which we confirmed experimentally. Spatial sector patterns therefore provide an alternative fitness assay to the commonly used liquid culture fitness assays.

Dynamic monitoring of the Poyang Lake wetland by integrating Landsat and MODIS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Bin; Chen, Lifan; Huang, Bo; Michishita, Ryo; Xu, Bing

2018-05-01

The spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion models (STARFM) have limited practical applications, because they often enforce the invalid assumption that land cover change does not occur between prior/posterior and target dates. To deal with this challenge, we proposed a spatiotemporal adaptive fusion model for NDVI products (STAFFN), to better blend highly resolved spatial and temporal information from multiple sensors. Compared with existing spatiotemporal fusion models, the proposed model integrates an initial prediction into a hierarchical selection strategy of similar pixels, and can capture landscape changes very well. Experiments using spatial details and temporal abundance comparison among MODIS, Landsat, and fusion results show that the predicted data can accurately capture temporal changes while preserving fine-spatial-resolution details. Model comparison also shows that STAFFNs produce consistently lower biases than STARFMs and the flexible spatiotemporal data fusion models (FSDAFs). A synthetic NDVI product (342 scenes in total) was produced with STAFFNs having a 16-day revisit frequency at 30-m spatial resolution from 2000 to 2014. With this product, we further provided a 15-year spatiotemporal change monitoring map of the Poyang Lake wetland. Results show that the water area in the dry season tended to lose 38.3 km2 yr-1 in coverage over the past 15 years, decreasing by 18.24% of the lake area between 2001 and 2014. The wetland vegetation group tended to increase in coverage, increasing by 10.08% of the lake area in the past 15 years. Our study indicates the STAFFN model can be reasonably applied in monitoring wetland dynamics, and can be easily adapted for the use with other ecosystems.

Exploring the effect of drought extent and interval on the Florida snail kite: Interplay between spatial and temporal scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mooij, Wolf M.; Bennetts, Robert E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2002-01-01

The paper aims at exploring the viability of the Florida snail kite population under various drought regimes in its wetland habitat. The population dynamics of snail kites are strongly linked with the hydrology of the system due to the dependence of this bird species on one exclusive prey species, the apple snail, which is negatively affected by a drying out of habitat. Based on empirical evidence, it has been hypothesised that the viability of the snail kite population critically depends not only on the time interval between droughts, but also on the spatial extent of these droughts. A system wide drought is likely to result in reduced reproduction and increased mortality, whereas the birds can respond to local droughts by moving to sites where conditions are still favourable. This paper explores the implications of this hypothesis by means of a spatially-explicit individual-based model. The specific aim of the model is to study in a factorial design the dynamics of the kite population in relation to two scale parameters, the temporal interval between droughts and the spatial correlation between droughts. In the model high drought frequencies led to reduced numbers of kites. Also, habitat degradation due to prolonged periods of inundation led to lower predicted numbers of kites. Another main result was that when the spatial correlation between droughts was low, the model showed little variability in the predicted numbers of kites. But when droughts occurred mostly on a system wide level, environmental stochasticity strongly increased the stochasticity in kite numbers and in the worst case the viability of the kite population was seriously threatened.

Revealing spatially heterogeneous relaxation in a model nanocomposite.

PubMed

Cheng, Shiwang; Mirigian, Stephen; Carrillo, Jan-Michael Y; Bocharova, Vera; Sumpter, Bobby G; Schweizer, Kenneth S; Sokolov, Alexei P

2015-11-21

The detailed nature of spatially heterogeneous dynamics of glycerol-silica nanocomposites is unraveled by combining dielectric spectroscopy with atomistic simulation and statistical mechanical theory. Analysis of the spatial mobility gradient shows no "glassy" layer, but the α-relaxation time near the nanoparticle grows with cooling faster than the α-relaxation time in the bulk and is ∼20 times longer at low temperatures. The interfacial layer thickness increases from ∼1.8 nm at higher temperatures to ∼3.5 nm upon cooling to near bulk Tg. A real space microscopic description of the mobility gradient is constructed by synergistically combining high temperature atomistic simulation with theory. Our analysis suggests that the interfacial slowing down arises mainly due to an increase of the local cage scale barrier for activated hopping induced by enhanced packing and densification near the nanoparticle surface. The theory is employed to predict how local surface densification can be manipulated to control layer dynamics and shear rigidity over a wide temperature range.

Revealing spatially heterogeneous relaxation in a model nanocomposite

DOE PAGES

Cheng, Shiwang; Mirigian, Stephen; Carrillo, Jan-Michael Y.; ...

2015-11-18

The detailed nature of spatially heterogeneous dynamics of glycerol-silica nanocomposites is unraveled by combining dielectric spectroscopy with atomistic simulation and statistical mechanical theory. Analysis of the spatial mobility gradient shows no glassy layer, but the -relaxation time near the nanoparticle grows with cooling faster than the -relaxation time in the bulk and is ~20 times longer at low temperatures. The interfacial layer thickness increases from ~1.8 nm at higher temperatures to ~3.5 nm upon cooling to near bulk T g. A real space microscopic description of the mobility gradient is constructed by synergistically combining high temperature atomistic simulation with theory.more » Our analysis suggests that the interfacial slowing down arises mainly due to an increase of the local cage scale barrier for activated hopping induced by enhanced packing and densification near the nanoparticle surface. As a result, the theory is employed to predict how local surface densification can be manipulated to control layer dynamics and shear rigidity over a wide temperature range.« less

Deep recurrent neural network reveals a hierarchy of process memory during dynamic natural vision.

PubMed

Shi, Junxing; Wen, Haiguang; Zhang, Yizhen; Han, Kuan; Liu, Zhongming

2018-05-01

The human visual cortex extracts both spatial and temporal visual features to support perception and guide behavior. Deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) provide a computational framework to model cortical representation and organization for spatial visual processing, but unable to explain how the brain processes temporal information. To overcome this limitation, we extended a CNN by adding recurrent connections to different layers of the CNN to allow spatial representations to be remembered and accumulated over time. The extended model, or the recurrent neural network (RNN), embodied a hierarchical and distributed model of process memory as an integral part of visual processing. Unlike the CNN, the RNN learned spatiotemporal features from videos to enable action recognition. The RNN better predicted cortical responses to natural movie stimuli than the CNN, at all visual areas, especially those along the dorsal stream. As a fully observable model of visual processing, the RNN also revealed a cortical hierarchy of temporal receptive window, dynamics of process memory, and spatiotemporal representations. These results support the hypothesis of process memory, and demonstrate the potential of using the RNN for in-depth computational understanding of dynamic natural vision. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Pattern does not equal process: what does patch occupancy really tell us about metapopulation dynamics?

PubMed

Clinchy, Michael; Haydon, Daniel T; Smith, Andrew T

2002-04-01

Patch occupancy surveys are commonly used to parameterize metapopulation models. If isolation predicts patch occupancy, this is generally attributed to a balance between distance-dependent recolonization and spatially independent extinctions. We investigated whether similar patterns could also be generated by a process of spatially correlated extinctions following a unique colonization event (analogous to nonequilibrium processes in island biogeography). We simulated effects of spatially correlated extinctions on patterns of patch occupancy among pikas (Ochotona princeps) at Bodie, California, using randomly located extinction disks to represent the likely effects of predation. Our simulations produced similar patterns to those cited as evidence of balanced metapopulation dynamics. Simulations using a variety of disk sizes and patch configurations confirmed that our results are potentially applicable to a broad range of species and sites. Analyses of the observed patterns of patch occupancy at Bodie revealed little evidence of rescue effects and strong evidence that most recolonizations are ephemeral in nature. Persistence will be overestimated if static or declining patterns of patch occupancy are mistakenly attributed to dynamically stable metapopulation processes. Consequently, simple patch occupancy surveys should not be considered as substitutes for detailed experimental tests of hypothesized population processes, particularly when conservation concerns are involved.

Using Imaging Spectrometry measurements of Ecosystem Composition to constrain Regional Predictions of Carbon, Water and Energy Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, C.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Huang, M.; Xu, Y.; Stegen, J.

2016-12-01

Ecosystem composition is a key attribute of terrestrial ecosystems, influencing the fluxes of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. The description of current ecosystem composition has traditionally come from relatively few ground-based inventories of the plant canopy, but are spatially limited and do not provide a comprehensive picture of ecosystem composition at regional or global scales. In this analysis, imaging spectrometry measurements, collected as part of the HyspIRI Preparatory Mission, are used to provide spatially-resolved estimates of plant functional type composition providing an important constraint on terrestrial biosphere model predictions of carbon, water and energy fluxes across the heterogeneous landscapes of the Californian Sierras. These landscapes include oak savannas, mid-elevation mixed pines, fir-cedar forests, and high elevation pines. Our results show that imaging spectrometry measurements can be successfully used to estimate regional-scale variation in ecosystem composition and resulting spatial heterogeneity in patterns of carbon, water and energy fluxes and ecosystem dynamics. Simulations at four flux tower sites within the study region yield patterns of seasonal and inter-annual variation in carbon and water fluxes that have comparable accuracy to simulations initialized from ground-based inventory measurements. Finally, results indicate that during the 2012-2015 Californian drought, regional net carbon fluxes fell by 84%, evaporation and transpiration fluxes fell by 53% and 33% respectively, and sensible heat increase by 51%. This study provides a framework for assimilating near-future global satellite imagery estimates of ecosystem composition with terrestrial biosphere models, constraining and improving their predictions of large-scale ecosystem dynamics and functioning.

Using Imaging Spectrometry measurements of Ecosystem Composition to constrain Regional Predictions of Carbon, Water and Energy Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antonarakis, A. S.; Bogan, S.; Moorcroft, P. R.

2017-12-01

Ecosystem composition is a key attribute of terrestrial ecosystems, influencing the fluxes of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. The description of current ecosystem composition has traditionally come from relatively few ground-based inventories of the plant canopy, but are spatially limited and do not provide a comprehensive picture of ecosystem composition at regional or global scales. In this analysis, imaging spectrometry measurements, collected as part of the HyspIRI Preparatory Mission, are used to provide spatially-resolved estimates of plant functional type composition providing an important constraint on terrestrial biosphere model predictions of carbon, water and energy fluxes across the heterogeneous landscapes of the Californian Sierras. These landscapes include oak savannas, mid-elevation mixed pines, fir-cedar forests, and high elevation pines. Our results show that imaging spectrometry measurements can be successfully used to estimate regional-scale variation in ecosystem composition and resulting spatial heterogeneity in patterns of carbon, water and energy fluxes and ecosystem dynamics. Simulations at four flux tower sites within the study region yield patterns of seasonal and inter-annual variation in carbon and water fluxes that have comparable accuracy to simulations initialized from ground-based inventory measurements. Finally, results indicate that during the 2012-2015 Californian drought, regional net carbon fluxes fell by 84%, evaporation and transpiration fluxes fell by 53% and 33% respectively, and sensible heat increase by 51%. This study provides a framework for assimilating near-future global satellite imagery estimates of ecosystem composition with terrestrial biosphere models, constraining and improving their predictions of large-scale ecosystem dynamics and functioning.

Spatial variation in water loss predicts terrestrial salamander distribution and population dynamics.

PubMed

Peterman, W E; Semlitsch, R D

2014-10-01

Many patterns observed in ecology, such as species richness, life history variation, habitat use, and distribution, have physiological underpinnings. For many ectothermic organisms, temperature relationships shape these patterns, but for terrestrial amphibians, water balance may supersede temperature as the most critical physiologically limiting factor. Many amphibian species have little resistance to water loss, which restricts them to moist microhabitats, and may significantly affect foraging, dispersal, and courtship. Using plaster models as surrogates for terrestrial plethodontid salamanders (Plethodon albagula), we measured water loss under ecologically relevant field conditions to estimate the duration of surface activity time across the landscape. Surface activity time was significantly affected by topography, solar exposure, canopy cover, maximum air temperature, and time since rain. Spatially, surface activity times were highest in ravine habitats and lowest on ridges. Surface activity time was a significant predictor of salamander abundance, as well as a predictor of successful recruitment; the probability of a juvenile salamander occupying an area with high surface activity time was two times greater than an area with limited predicted surface activity. Our results suggest that survival, recruitment, or both are demographic processes that are affected by water loss and the ability of salamanders to be surface-active. Results from our study extend our understanding of plethodontid salamander ecology, emphasize the limitations imposed by their unique physiology, and highlight the importance of water loss to spatial population dynamics. These findings are timely for understanding the effects that fluctuating temperature and moisture conditions predicted for future climates will have on plethodontid salamanders.

Spatial analysis and statistical modelling of snow cover dynamics in the Central Himalayas, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weidinger, Johannes; Gerlitz, Lars; Böhner, Jürgen

2017-04-01

General circulation models are able to predict large scale climate variations in global dimensions, however small scale dynamic characteristics, such as snow cover and its temporal variations in high mountain regions, are not represented sufficiently. Detailed knowledge about shifts in seasonal ablation times and spatial distribution of snow cover are crucial for various research interests. Since high mountain areas, for instance the Central Himalayas in Nepal, are generally remote, it is difficult to obtain data in high spatio-temporal resolutions. Regional climate models and downscaling techniques are implemented to compensate coarse resolution. Furthermore earth observation systems, such as MODIS, also permit bridging this gap to a certain extent. They offer snow (cover) data in daily temporal and medium spatial resolution of around 500 m, which can be applied as evaluation and training data for dynamical hydrological and statistical analyses. Within this approach two snow distribution models (binary snow cover and fractional snow cover) as well as one snow recession model were implemented for a research domain in the Rolwaling Himal in Nepal, employing the random forest technique, which represents a state of the art machine learning algorithm. Both bottom-up strategies provide inductive reasoning to derive rules for snow related processes out of climate (temperature, precipitation and irradiance) and climate-related topographic data sets (elevation, aspect and convergence index) obtained by meteorological network stations, remote sensing products (snow cover - MOD10-A1 and land surface temperatures - MOD11-A1) along with GIS. Snow distribution is predicted reliably on a daily basis in the research area, whereas further effort is necessary for predicting daily snow cover recession processes adequately. Swift changes induced by clear sky conditions with high insolation rates are well represented, whereas steady snow loss still needs continuing effort. All approaches underline the technical difficulties of snow cover modelling during the monsoon season, in accordance with previous studies. The developed methods in combination with continuous in situ measurements provide a basis for further downscaling approaches.

Prediction of rainfall anomalies during the dry to wet transition season over the Southern Amazonia using machine learning tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, X.; Zhang, K.; Zhuang, Y.; Fu, R.; Hong, Y.

2017-12-01

Seasonal prediction of rainfall during the dry-to-wet transition season in austral spring (September-November) over southern Amazonia is central for improving planting crops and fire mitigation in that region. Previous studies have identified the key large-scale atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamics pre-conditions during the dry season (June-August) that influence the rainfall anomalies during the dry to wet transition season over Southern Amazonia. Based on these key pre-conditions during dry season, we have evaluated several statistical models and developed a Neural Network based statistical prediction system to predict rainfall during the dry to wet transition for Southern Amazonia (5-15°S, 50-70°W). Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) Analysis is applied to the following four fields during JJA from the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) spanning from year 1979 to 2015: geopotential height at 200 hPa, surface relative humidity, convective inhibition energy (CIN) index and convective available potential energy (CAPE), to filter out noise and highlight the most coherent spatial and temporal variations. The first 10 EOF modes are retained for inputs to the statistical models, accounting for at least 70% of the total variance in the predictor fields. We have tested several linear and non-linear statistical methods. While the regularized Ridge Regression and Lasso Regression can generally capture the spatial pattern and magnitude of rainfall anomalies, we found that that Neural Network performs best with an accuracy greater than 80%, as expected from the non-linear dependence of the rainfall on the large-scale atmospheric thermodynamic conditions and circulation. Further tests of various prediction skill metrics and hindcasts also suggest this Neural Network prediction approach can significantly improve seasonal prediction skill than the dynamic predictions and regression based statistical predictions. Thus, this statistical prediction system could have shown potential to improve real-time seasonal rainfall predictions in the future.

Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds.

PubMed

Börger, Luca; Nudds, Thomas D

2014-01-01

Understanding the effects of landscape change and environmental variability on ecological processes is important for evaluating resource management policies, such as the emulation of natural forest disturbances. We analyzed time series of detection/nondetection data using hierarchical models in a Bayesian multi-model inference framework to decompose the dynamics of species distributions into responses to environmental variability, spatial variation in habitat conditions, and population dynamics and interspecific interactions, while correcting for observation errors and variation in sampling regimes. We modeled distribution dynamics of 14 waterbird species (broadly defined, including wetland and riparian species) using data from two different breeding bird surveys collected in the Boreal Shield ecozone within Ontario, Canada. Temporal variation in species occupancy (2000-2006) was primarily driven by climatic variability. Only two species showed evidence of consistent temporal trends in distribution: Ring-necked Duck (Aythya collaris) decreased, and Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) increased. The models had good predictive ability on independent data over time (1997-1999). Spatial variation in species occupancy was strongly related to the distribution of specific land cover types and habitat disturbance: Fire and forest harvesting influenced occupancy more than did roads, settlements, or mines. Bioclimatic and habitat heterogeneity indices and geographic coordinates exerted negligible influence on most species distributions. Estimated habitat suitability indices had good predictive ability on spatially independent data (Hudson Bay Lowlands ecozone). Additionally, we detected effects of interspecific interactions. Species responses to fire and forest harvesting were similar for 13 of 14 species; thus, forest-harvesting practices in Ontario generally appeared to emulate the effects of fire for waterbirds over timescales of 10-20 years. Extrapolating to all 84 waterbird species breeding on the Ontario Boreal Shield, however, suggested that up to 30 species may instead have altered (short-term) distribution dynamics due to forestry practices. Hence, natural disturbances are critical components of the ecology of the boreal forest and forest practices which aim to approximate them may succeed in allowing the maintenance of the associated species, but improved monitoring and modeling of large-scale boreal forest bird distribution dynamics will be necessary to resolve existing uncertainties, especially on less-common species.

Hotspots of Community Change: Temporal Dynamics Are Spatially Variable in Understory Plant Composition of a California Oak Woodland

PubMed Central

Spotswood, Erica N.; Bartolome, James W.; Allen-Diaz, Barbara

2015-01-01

Community response to external drivers such climate and disturbance can lead to fluctuations in community composition, or to directional change. Temporal dynamics can be influenced by a combination of drivers operating at multiple spatial scales, including external landscape scale drivers, local abiotic conditions, and local species pools. We hypothesized that spatial variation in these factors can create heterogeneity in temporal dynamics within landscapes. We used understory plant species composition from an 11 year dataset from a California oak woodland to compare plots where disturbance was experimentally manipulated with the removal of livestock grazing and a prescribed burn. We quantified three properties of temporal variation: compositional change (reflecting the appearance and disappearance of species), temporal fluctuation, and directional change. Directional change was related most strongly to disturbance type, and was highest at plots where grazing was removed during the study. Temporal fluctuations, compositional change, and directional change were all related to intrinsic abiotic factors, suggesting that some locations are more responsive to external drivers than others. Temporal fluctuations and compositional change were linked to local functional composition, indicating that environmental filters can create subsets of the local species pool that do not respond in the same way to external drivers. Temporal dynamics are often assumed to be relatively static at the landscape scale, provided disturbance and climate are continuous. This study shows that local and landscape scale factors jointly influence temporal dynamics creating hotspots that are particularly responsive to climate and disturbance. Thus, adequate predictions of response to disturbance or to changing climate will only be achieved by considering how factors at multiple spatial scales influence community resilience and recovery. PMID:26222069

Hotspots of Community Change: Temporal Dynamics Are Spatially Variable in Understory Plant Composition of a California Oak Woodland.

PubMed

Spotswood, Erica N; Bartolome, James W; Allen-Diaz, Barbara

2015-01-01

Community response to external drivers such climate and disturbance can lead to fluctuations in community composition, or to directional change. Temporal dynamics can be influenced by a combination of drivers operating at multiple spatial scales, including external landscape scale drivers, local abiotic conditions, and local species pools. We hypothesized that spatial variation in these factors can create heterogeneity in temporal dynamics within landscapes. We used understory plant species composition from an 11 year dataset from a California oak woodland to compare plots where disturbance was experimentally manipulated with the removal of livestock grazing and a prescribed burn. We quantified three properties of temporal variation: compositional change (reflecting the appearance and disappearance of species), temporal fluctuation, and directional change. Directional change was related most strongly to disturbance type, and was highest at plots where grazing was removed during the study. Temporal fluctuations, compositional change, and directional change were all related to intrinsic abiotic factors, suggesting that some locations are more responsive to external drivers than others. Temporal fluctuations and compositional change were linked to local functional composition, indicating that environmental filters can create subsets of the local species pool that do not respond in the same way to external drivers. Temporal dynamics are often assumed to be relatively static at the landscape scale, provided disturbance and climate are continuous. This study shows that local and landscape scale factors jointly influence temporal dynamics creating hotspots that are particularly responsive to climate and disturbance. Thus, adequate predictions of response to disturbance or to changing climate will only be achieved by considering how factors at multiple spatial scales influence community resilience and recovery.

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Wisz, Mary Susanne; Pottier, Julien; Kissling, W Daniel; Pellissier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Damgaard, Christian F; Dormann, Carsten F; Forchhammer, Mads C; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Guisan, Antoine; Heikkinen, Risto K; Høye, Toke T; Kühn, Ingolf; Luoto, Miska; Maiorano, Luigi; Nilsson, Marie-Charlotte; Normand, Signe; Öckinger, Erik; Schmidt, Niels M; Termansen, Mette; Timmermann, Allan; Wardle, David A; Aastrup, Peter; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2013-02-01

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere. © 2012 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2012 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Electromagnetic behavior of spatial terahertz wave modulators based on reconfigurable micromirror gratings in Littrow configuration.

PubMed

Kappa, Jan; Schmitt, Klemens M; Rahm, Marco

2017-08-21

Efficient, high speed spatial modulators with predictable performance are a key element in any coded aperture terahertz imaging system. For spectroscopy, the modulators must also provide a broad modulation frequency range. In this study, we numerically analyze the electromagnetic behavior of a dynamically reconfigurable spatial terahertz wave modulator based on a micromirror grating in Littrow configuration. We show that such a modulator can modulate terahertz radiation over a wide frequency range from 1.7 THz to beyond 3 THz at a modulation depth of more than 0.6. As a specific example, we numerically simulated coded aperture imaging of an object with binary transmissive properties and successfully reconstructed the image.

Plant reproductive allocation predicts herbivore dynamics across spatial and temporal scales.

PubMed

Miller, Tom E X; Tyre, Andrew J; Louda, Svata M

2006-11-01

Life-history theory suggests that iteroparous plants should be flexible in their allocation of resources toward growth and reproduction. Such plasticity could have consequences for herbivores that prefer or specialize on vegetative versus reproductive structures. To test this prediction, we studied the response of the cactus bug (Narnia pallidicornis) to meristem allocation by tree cholla cactus (Opuntia imbricata). We evaluated the explanatory power of demographic models that incorporated variation in cactus relative reproductive effort (RRE; the proportion of meristems allocated toward reproduction). Field data provided strong support for a single model that defined herbivore fecundity as a time-varying, increasing function of host RRE. High-RRE plants were predicted to support larger insect populations, and this effect was strongest late in the season. Independent field data provided strong support for these qualitative predictions and suggested that plant allocation effects extend across temporal and spatial scales. Specifically, late-season insect abundance was positively associated with interannual changes in cactus RRE over 3 years. Spatial variation in insect abundance was correlated with variation in RRE among five cactus populations across New Mexico. We conclude that plant allocation can be a critical component of resource quality for insect herbivores and, thus, an important mechanism underlying variation in herbivore abundance across time and space.

Nonequilibrium dynamics of probe filaments in actin-myosin networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gladrow, J.; Broedersz, C. P.; Schmidt, C. F.

2017-08-01

Active dynamic processes of cells are largely driven by the cytoskeleton, a complex and adaptable semiflexible polymer network, motorized by mechanoenzymes. Small dimensions, confined geometries, and hierarchical structures make it challenging to probe dynamics and mechanical response of such networks. Embedded semiflexible probe polymers can serve as nonperturbing multiscale probes to detect force distributions in active polymer networks. We show here that motor-induced forces transmitted to the probe polymers are reflected in nonequilibrium bending dynamics, which we analyze in terms of spatial eigenmodes of an elastic beam under steady-state conditions. We demonstrate how these active forces induce correlations among the mode amplitudes, which furthermore break time-reversal symmetry. This leads to a breaking of detailed balance in this mode space. We derive analytical predictions for the magnitude of resulting probability currents in mode space in the white-noise limit of motor activity. We relate the structure of these currents to the spatial profile of motor-induced forces along the probe polymers and provide a general relation for observable currents on two-dimensional hyperplanes.

Infections on the move: how transient phases of host movement influence disease spread

PubMed Central

Fenton, A.; Dell, A. I.

2017-01-01

Animal movement impacts the spread of human and wildlife diseases, and there is significant interest in understanding the role of migrations, biological invasions and other wildlife movements in spatial infection dynamics. However, the influence of processes acting on infections during transient phases of host movement is poorly understood. We propose a conceptual framework that explicitly considers infection dynamics during transient phases of host movement to better predict infection spread through spatial host networks. Accounting for host transient movement captures key processes that occur while hosts move between locations, which together determine the rate at which hosts spread infections through networks. We review theoretical and empirical studies of host movement and infection spread, highlighting the multiple factors that impact the infection status of hosts. We then outline characteristics of hosts, parasites and the environment that influence these dynamics. Recent technological advances provide disease ecologists unprecedented ability to track the fine-scale movement of organisms. These, in conjunction with experimental testing of the factors driving infection dynamics during host movement, can inform models of infection spread based on constituent biological processes. PMID:29263283

Atomic force microscopy characterization of Zerodur mirror substrates for the extreme ultraviolet telescopes aboard NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Soufli, Regina; Baker, Sherry L.; Windt, David L.

2007-06-01

The high-spatial frequency roughness of a mirror operating at extreme ultraviolet (EUV)wavelengths is crucial for the reflective performance and is subject to very stringent specifications. To understand and predict mirror performance, precision metrology is required for measuring the surface roughness. Zerodur mirror substrates made by two different polishing vendors for a suite of EUV telescopes for solar physics were characterized by atomic force microscopy (AFM). The AFM measurements revealed features in the topography of each substrate that are associated with specific polishing techniques. Theoretical predictions of the mirror performance based on the AFM-measured high-spatial-frequency roughness are in good agreement withmore » EUV reflectance measurements of the mirrors after multilayer coating.« less

Finite volume solution for two-phase flow in a straight capillary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yelkhovsky, Alexander; Pinczewski, W. Val

2018-04-01

The problem of two-phase flow in straight capillaries of polygonal cross section displays many of the dynamic characteristics of rapid interfacial motions associated with pore-scale displacements in porous media. Fluid inertia is known to be important in these displacements but is usually ignored in network models commonly used to predict macroscopic flow properties. This study presents a numerical model for two-phase flow which describes the spatial and temporal evolution of the interface between the fluids. The model is based on an averaged Navier-Stokes equation and is shown to be successful in predicting the complex dynamics of both capillary rise in round capillaries and imbibition along the corners of polygonal capillaries. The model can form the basis for more realistic network models which capture the effect of capillary, viscous, and inertial forces on pore-scale interfacial dynamics and consequent macroscopic flow properties.

Quantifying Information Gain from Dynamic Downscaling Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Y.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

2015-12-01

Dynamic climate downscaling experiments are designed to produce information at higher spatial and temporal resolutions. Such additional information is generated from the low-resolution initial and boundary conditions via the predictive power of the physical laws. However, errors and uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions can be propagated and even amplified to the downscaled simulations. Additionally, the limit of predictability in nonlinear dynamical systems will also damper the information gain, even if the initial and boundary conditions were error-free. Thus it is critical to quantitatively define and measure the amount of information increase from dynamic downscaling experiments, to better understand and appreciate their potentials and limitations. We present a scheme to objectively measure the information gain from such experiments. The scheme is based on information theory, and we argue that if a downscaling experiment is to exhibit value, it has to produce more information than what can be simply inferred from information sources already available. These information sources include the initial and boundary conditions, the coarse resolution model in which the higher-resolution models are embedded, and the same set of physical laws. These existing information sources define an "information threshold" as a function of the spatial and temporal resolution, and this threshold serves as a benchmark to quantify the information gain from the downscaling experiments, or any other approaches. For a downscaling experiment to shown any value, the information has to be above this threshold. A recent NASA-supported downscaling experiment is used as an example to illustrate the application of this scheme.

Dynamics of prey moving through a predator field: a model of migrating juvenile salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, J.H.; DeAngelis, D.L.

2000-01-01

The migration of a patch of prey through a field of relatively stationary predators is a situation that occurs frequently in nature. Making quantitative predictions concerning such phenomena may be difficult, however, because factors such as the number of the prey in the patch, the spatial length and velocity of the patch, and the feeding rate and satiation of the predators all interact in a complex way. However, such problems are of great practical importance in many management situations; e.g., calculating the mortality of juvenile salmon (smolts) swimming down a river or reservoir containing many predators. Salmon smolts often move downstream in patches short compared with the length of the reservoir. To take into account the spatial dependence of the interaction, we used a spatially-explicit, individual-based modeling approach. We found that the mortality of prey depends strongly on the number of prey in the patch, the downstream velocity of prey in the patch, and the dispersion or spread of the patch in size through time. Some counterintuitive phenomena are predicted, such as predators downstrean capturing more prey per predator than those upstream, even though the number of prey may be greatly depleted by the time the prey patch reaches the downstream predators. Individual-based models may be necessary for complex spatial situations, such as salmonid migration, where processes such as schooling occur at fine scales and affect system predictions. We compare some results to predictions from other salmonid models. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc.

Good coupling for the multiscale patch scheme on systems with microscale heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunder, J. E.; Roberts, A. J.; Kevrekidis, I. G.

2017-05-01

Computational simulation of microscale detailed systems is frequently only feasible over spatial domains much smaller than the macroscale of interest. The 'equation-free' methodology couples many small patches of microscale computations across space to empower efficient computational simulation over macroscale domains of interest. Motivated by molecular or agent simulations, we analyse the performance of various coupling schemes for patches when the microscale is inherently 'rough'. As a canonical problem in this universality class, we systematically analyse the case of heterogeneous diffusion on a lattice. Computer algebra explores how the dynamics of coupled patches predict the large scale emergent macroscale dynamics of the computational scheme. We determine good design for the coupling of patches by comparing the macroscale predictions from patch dynamics with the emergent macroscale on the entire domain, thus minimising the computational error of the multiscale modelling. The minimal error on the macroscale is obtained when the coupling utilises averaging regions which are between a third and a half of the patch. Moreover, when the symmetry of the inter-patch coupling matches that of the underlying microscale structure, patch dynamics predicts the desired macroscale dynamics to any specified order of error. The results confirm that the patch scheme is useful for macroscale computational simulation of a range of systems with microscale heterogeneity.

Scale-dependent habitat use by a large free-ranging predator, the Mediterranean fin whale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotté, Cédric; Guinet, Christophe; Taupier-Letage, Isabelle; Mate, Bruce; Petiau, Estelle

2009-05-01

Since the heterogeneity of oceanographic conditions drives abundance, distribution, and availability of prey, it is essential to understand how foraging predators interact with their dynamic environment at various spatial and temporal scales. We examined the spatio-temporal relationships between oceanographic features and abundance of fin whales ( Balaenoptera physalus), the largest free-ranging predator in the Western Mediterranean Sea (WM), through two independent approaches. First, spatial modeling was used to estimate whale density, using waiting distance (the distance between detections) for fin whales along ferry routes across the WM, in relation to remotely sensed oceanographic parameters. At a large scale (basin and year), fin whales exhibited fidelity to the northern WM with a summer-aggregated and winter-dispersed pattern. At mesoscale (20-100 km), whales were found in colder, saltier (from an on-board system) and dynamic areas defined by steep altimetric and temperature gradients. Second, using an independent fin whale satellite tracking dataset, we showed that tracked whales were effectively preferentially located in favorable habitats, i.e. in areas of high predicted densities as identified by our previous model using oceanographic data contemporaneous to the tracking period. We suggest that the large-scale fidelity corresponds to temporally and spatially predictable habitat of whale favorite prey, the northern krill ( Meganyctiphanes norvegica), while mesoscale relationships are likely to identify areas of high prey concentration and availability.

Quantitative, depth-resolved determination of particle motion using multi-exposure, spatial frequency domain laser speckle imaging.

PubMed

Rice, Tyler B; Kwan, Elliott; Hayakawa, Carole K; Durkin, Anthony J; Choi, Bernard; Tromberg, Bruce J

2013-01-01

Laser Speckle Imaging (LSI) is a simple, noninvasive technique for rapid imaging of particle motion in scattering media such as biological tissue. LSI is generally used to derive a qualitative index of relative blood flow due to unknown impact from several variables that affect speckle contrast. These variables may include optical absorption and scattering coefficients, multi-layer dynamics including static, non-ergodic regions, and systematic effects such as laser coherence length. In order to account for these effects and move toward quantitative, depth-resolved LSI, we have developed a method that combines Monte Carlo modeling, multi-exposure speckle imaging (MESI), spatial frequency domain imaging (SFDI), and careful instrument calibration. Monte Carlo models were used to generate total and layer-specific fractional momentum transfer distributions. This information was used to predict speckle contrast as a function of exposure time, spatial frequency, layer thickness, and layer dynamics. To verify with experimental data, controlled phantom experiments with characteristic tissue optical properties were performed using a structured light speckle imaging system. Three main geometries were explored: 1) diffusive dynamic layer beneath a static layer, 2) static layer beneath a diffuse dynamic layer, and 3) directed flow (tube) submerged in a dynamic scattering layer. Data fits were performed using the Monte Carlo model, which accurately reconstructed the type of particle flow (diffusive or directed) in each layer, the layer thickness, and absolute flow speeds to within 15% or better.

`spup' - An R Package for Analysis of Spatial Uncertainty Propagation and Application to Trace Gas Emission Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawicka, K.; Breuer, L.; Houska, T.; Santabarbara Ruiz, I.; Heuvelink, G. B. M.

2016-12-01

Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Advances in uncertainty propagation analysis and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability, including case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the `spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Here we will demonstrate that the 'spup' package is an effective and easy-to-use tool to be applied even in a very complex study case, and that it can be used in multi-disciplinary research and model-based decision support. As an example, we use the ecological LandscapeDNDC model to analyse propagation of uncertainties associated with spatial variability of the model driving forces such as rainfall, nitrogen deposition and fertilizer inputs. The uncertainty propagation is analysed for the prediction of emissions of N2O and CO2 for a German low mountainous, agriculturally developed catchment. The study tests the effect of spatial correlations on spatially aggregated model outputs, and could serve as an advice for developing best management practices and model improvement strategies.

Anthropogenic habitat disturbance and the dynamics of hantavirus using remote sensing, GIS, and a spatially explicit agent-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Lina

Sin Nombre virus (SNV), a strain of hantavirus, causes hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in humans, a deadly disease with high mortality rate (>50%). The primary virus host is deer mice, and greater deer mice abundance has been shown to increase the human risk of HPS. There is a great need in understanding the nature of the virus host, its temporal and spatial dynamics, and its relation to the human population with the purpose of predicting human risk of the disease. This research studies SNV dynamics in deer mice in the Great Basin Desert of central Utah, USA using multiyear field data and integrated geospatial approaches including remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS), and a spatially explicit agent-based model. The goal is to advance our understanding of the important ecological and demographic factors that affect the dynamics of deer mouse population and SNV prevalence. The primary research question is how climate, habitat disturbance, and deer mouse demographics affect deer mouse population density, its movement, and SNV prevalence in the sagebrush habitat. The results show that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) can be good predictors of deer mouse density and the number of infected deer mice with a time lag of 1.0 to 1.3 years. This information can be very useful in predicting mouse abundance and SNV risk. The results also showed that climate, mouse density, sex, mass, and SNV infection had significant effects on deer mouse movement. The effect of habitat disturbance on mouse movement varies according to climate conditions with positive relationship in predrought condition and negative association in postdrought condition. The heavier infected deer mice moved the most. Season and disturbance alone had no significant effects. The spatial agent-based model (SABM) simulation results show that prevalence was negatively related to the disturbance levels and the sensitivity analysis showed that population density was one of the most important parameters affecting the SNV dynamics. The results also indicated that habitat disturbance could increase hantavirus transmission likely by increasing the movement and consequently contact rates. However, the model suggested that habitat disturbance had a much stronger effect on prevalence by decreasing population density than by increasing mice movement. Therefore, overall habitat disturbance reduces SNV prevalence.

Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure.

PubMed

Dyble, Julianne; Bienfang, Paul; Dusek, Eva; Hitchcock, Gary; Holland, Fred; Laws, Ed; Lerczak, James; McGillicuddy, Dennis J; Minnett, Peter; Moore, Stephanie K; O'Kelly, Charles; Solo-Gabriele, Helena; Wang, John D

2008-11-07

Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges.

Natural Human Mobility Patterns and Spatial Spread of Infectious Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belik, Vitaly; Geisel, Theo; Brockmann, Dirk

2011-08-01

We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bidirectional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of the model on regular and complex metapopulation network topologies and show that significant dynamical differences exist to ordinary reaction-diffusion and effective force of infection models. On a lattice we calculate an expression for the velocity of the propagating epidemic front and find that, in contrast to the diffusive systems, our model predicts a saturation of the velocity with an increasing traveling rate. Furthermore, we show that a fully stochastic system exhibits a novel threshold for the attack ratio of an outbreak that is absent in diffusion and force of infection models. These insights not only capture natural features of human mobility relevant for the geographical epidemic spread, they may serve as a starting point for modeling important dynamical processes in human and animal epidemiology, population ecology, biology, and evolution.

Evaluating crown fire rate of spread predictions from physics-based models

Treesearch

C. M. Hoffman; J. Ziegler; J. Canfield; R. R. Linn; W. Mell; C. H. Sieg; F. Pimont

2015-01-01

Modeling the behavior of crown fires is challenging due to the complex set of coupled processes that drive the characteristics of a spreading wildfire and the large range of spatial and temporal scales over which these processes occur. Detailed physics-based modeling approaches such as FIRETEC and the Wildland Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) simulate...

The spatial-temporal evolution law of microseismic activities in the failure process of deep rock masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan-hui, Li; Gang, Lei; Shi-da, Xu; Da-wei, Wu

2018-07-01

Under high stress and blasting disturbance, the failure of deep rock masses is a complex, dynamic evolutionary process. To reveal the relation between macroscopic failure of deep rock masses and spatial-temporal evolution law of micro-cracking within, the initiation, extension, and connection of micro-cracks under blasting disturbance and the deformation and failure mechanism of deep rock masses were studied. The investigation was carried out using the microseismic (MS) monitoring system established in the deep mining area of Ashele Copper Mine (Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China). The results showed that the failure of the deep rock masses is a dynamic process accompanied with stress release and stress adjustment. It is not only related to the blasting-based mining, but also associated with zones of stress concentration formed due to the mining. In that space, the concentrated area in the cloud chart for the distribution of MS event density before failure of the rocks shows the basically same pattern with the damaged rocks obtained through scanning of mined-out areas, which indicates that the cloud chart can be used to determine potential risk areas of rocks in the spatial domain. In the time domain, relevant parameters of MS events presented different changes before the failure of the rocks: the energy index decreased while the cumulative apparent volume gradually increased, the magnitude distribution of microseismic events decreased rapidly, and the fractal dimension decreased at first and then remained stable. This demonstrates that the different changes in relevant MS parameters allow researchers to predict the failure time of the rocks. By analysing the dynamic evolution process of the failure of the deep rock masses, areas at potential risk can be predicted spatially and temporally. The result provides guidance for those involved in the safe production and management of underground engineering and establishes a theoretical basis for the study on the stability of deep rock masses.

Dynamic interactions between visual working memory and saccade target selection

PubMed Central

Schneegans, Sebastian; Spencer, John P.; Schöner, Gregor; Hwang, Seongmin; Hollingworth, Andrew

2014-01-01

Recent psychophysical experiments have shown that working memory for visual surface features interacts with saccadic motor planning, even in tasks where the saccade target is unambiguously specified by spatial cues. Specifically, a match between a memorized color and the color of either the designated target or a distractor stimulus influences saccade target selection, saccade amplitudes, and latencies in a systematic fashion. To elucidate these effects, we present a dynamic neural field model in combination with new experimental data. The model captures the neural processes underlying visual perception, working memory, and saccade planning relevant to the psychophysical experiment. It consists of a low-level visual sensory representation that interacts with two separate pathways: a spatial pathway implementing spatial attention and saccade generation, and a surface feature pathway implementing color working memory and feature attention. Due to bidirectional coupling between visual working memory and feature attention in the model, the working memory content can indirectly exert an effect on perceptual processing in the low-level sensory representation. This in turn biases saccadic movement planning in the spatial pathway, allowing the model to quantitatively reproduce the observed interaction effects. The continuous coupling between representations in the model also implies that modulation should be bidirectional, and model simulations provide specific predictions for complementary effects of saccade target selection on visual working memory. These predictions were empirically confirmed in a new experiment: Memory for a sample color was biased toward the color of a task-irrelevant saccade target object, demonstrating the bidirectional coupling between visual working memory and perceptual processing. PMID:25228628

A data-model integration approach toward improved understanding on wetland functions and hydrological benefits at the catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, I. Y.; Lang, M.; Lee, S.; Huang, C.; Jin, H.; McCarty, G.; Sadeghi, A.

2017-12-01

The wetland ecosystem plays crucial roles in improving hydrological function and ecological integrity for the downstream water and the surrounding landscape. However, changing behaviours and functioning of wetland ecosystems are poorly understood and extremely difficult to characterize. Improved understanding on hydrological behaviours of wetlands, considering their interaction with surrounding landscapes and impacts on downstream waters, is an essential first step toward closing the knowledge gap. We present an integrated wetland-catchment modelling study that capitalizes on recently developed inundation maps and other geospatial data. The aim of the data-model integration is to improve spatial prediction of wetland inundation and evaluate cumulative hydrological benefits at the catchment scale. In this paper, we highlight problems arising from data preparation, parameterization, and process representation in simulating wetlands within a distributed catchment model, and report the recent progress on mapping of wetland dynamics (i.e., inundation) using multiple remotely sensed data. We demonstrate the value of spatially explicit inundation information to develop site-specific wetland parameters and to evaluate model prediction at multi-spatial and temporal scales. This spatial data-model integrated framework is tested using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with improved wetland extension, and applied for an agricultural watershed in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA. This study illustrates necessity of spatially distributed information and a data integrated modelling approach to predict inundation of wetlands and hydrologic function at the local landscape scale, where monitoring and conservation decision making take place.

Efficacy of predictive wavefront control for compensating aero-optical aberrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goorskey, David J.; Schmidt, Jason; Whiteley, Matthew R.

2013-07-01

Imaging and laser beam propagation from airborne platforms are degraded by dynamic aberrations due to air flow around the aircraft, aero-mechanical distortions and jitter, and free atmospheric turbulence. For certain applications, like dim-object imaging, free-space optical communications, and laser weapons, adaptive optics (AO) is necessary to compensate for the aberrations in real time. Aero-optical flow is a particularly interesting source of aberrations whose flowing structures can be exploited by adaptive and predictive AO controllers, thereby realizing significant performance gains. We analyze dynamic aero-optical wavefronts to determine the pointing angles at which predictive wavefront control is more effective than conventional, fixed-gain, linear-filter control. It was found that properties of the spatial decompositions and temporal statistics of the wavefronts are directly traceable to specific features in the air flow. Furthermore, the aero-optical wavefront aberrations at the side- and aft-looking angles were the most severe, but they also benefited the most from predictive AO.

Monthly streamflow forecasting at varying spatial scales in the Rhine basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schick, Simon; Rössler, Ole; Weingartner, Rolf

2018-02-01

Model output statistics (MOS) methods can be used to empirically relate an environmental variable of interest to predictions from earth system models (ESMs). This variable often belongs to a spatial scale not resolved by the ESM. Here, using the linear model fitted by least squares, we regress monthly mean streamflow of the Rhine River at Lobith and Basel against seasonal predictions of precipitation, surface air temperature, and runoff from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. To address potential effects of a scale mismatch between the ESM's horizontal grid resolution and the hydrological application, the MOS method is further tested with an experiment conducted at the subcatchment scale. This experiment applies the MOS method to 133 additional gauging stations located within the Rhine basin and combines the forecasts from the subcatchments to predict streamflow at Lobith and Basel. In doing so, the MOS method is tested for catchments areas covering 4 orders of magnitude. Using data from the period 1981-2011, the results show that skill, with respect to climatology, is restricted on average to the first month ahead. This result holds for both the predictor combination that mimics the initial conditions and the predictor combinations that additionally include the dynamical seasonal predictions. The latter, however, reduce the mean absolute error of the former in the range of 5 to 12 %, which is consistently reproduced at the subcatchment scale. An additional experiment conducted for 5-day mean streamflow indicates that the dynamical predictions help to reduce uncertainties up to about 20 days ahead, but it also reveals some shortcomings of the present MOS method.

Observing Clonal Dynamics across Spatiotemporal Axes: A Prelude to Quantitative Fitness Models for Cancer.

PubMed

McPherson, Andrew W; Chan, Fong Chun; Shah, Sohrab P

2018-02-01

The ability to accurately model evolutionary dynamics in cancer would allow for prediction of progression and response to therapy. As a prelude to quantitative understanding of evolutionary dynamics, researchers must gather observations of in vivo tumor evolution. High-throughput genome sequencing now provides the means to profile the mutational content of evolving tumor clones from patient biopsies. Together with the development of models of tumor evolution, reconstructing evolutionary histories of individual tumors generates hypotheses about the dynamics of evolution that produced the observed clones. In this review, we provide a brief overview of the concepts involved in predicting evolutionary histories, and provide a workflow based on bulk and targeted-genome sequencing. We then describe the application of this workflow to time series data obtained for transformed and progressed follicular lymphomas (FL), and contrast the observed evolutionary dynamics between these two subtypes. We next describe results from a spatial sampling study of high-grade serous (HGS) ovarian cancer, propose mechanisms of disease spread based on the observed clonal mixtures, and provide examples of diversification through subclonal acquisition of driver mutations and convergent evolution. Finally, we state implications of the techniques discussed in this review as a necessary but insufficient step on the path to predictive modelling of disease dynamics. Copyright © 2018 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press; all rights reserved.

Through the big bang: Continuing Einstein's equations beyond a cosmological singularity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koslowski, Tim A.; Mercati, Flavio; Sloan, David

2018-03-01

All measurements are comparisons. The only physically accessible degrees of freedom (DOFs) are dimensionless ratios. The objective description of the universe as a whole thus predicts only how these ratios change collectively as one of them is changed. Here we develop a description for classical Bianchi IX cosmology implementing these relational principles. The objective evolution decouples from the volume and its expansion degree of freedom. We use the relational description to investigate both vacuum dominated and quiescent Bianchi IX cosmologies. In the vacuum dominated case the relational dynamical system predicts an infinite amount of change of the relational DOFs, in accordance with the well known chaotic behaviour of Bianchi IX. In the quiescent case the relational dynamical system evolves uniquely though the point where the decoupled scale DOFs predict the big bang/crunch. This is a non-trivial prediction of the relational description; the big bang/crunch is not the end of physics - it is instead a regular point of the relational evolution. Describing our solutions as spacetimes that satisfy Einstein's equations, we find that the relational dynamical system predicts two singular solutions of GR that are connected at the hypersurface of the singularity such that relational DOFs are continuous and the orientation of the spatial frame is inverted.

Thermodynamically consistent Langevin dynamics with spatially correlated noise predicting frictionless regime and transient attraction effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majka, M.; Góra, P. F.

2016-10-01

While the origins of temporal correlations in Langevin dynamics have been thoroughly researched, the understanding of spatially correlated noise (SCN) is rather incomplete. In particular, very little is known about the relation between friction and SCN. In this article, starting from the microscopic, deterministic model, we derive the analytical formula for the spatial correlation function in the particle-bath interactions. This expression shows that SCN is the inherent component of binary mixtures, originating from the effective (entropic) interactions. Further, employing this spatial correlation function, we postulate the thermodynamically consistent Langevin equation driven by the Gaussian SCN and calculate the adequate fluctuation-dissipation relation. The thermodynamical consistency is achieved by introducing the spatially variant friction coefficient, which can be also derived analytically. This coefficient exhibits a number of intriguing properties, e.g., the singular behavior for certain types of interactions. Eventually, we apply this new theory to the system of two charged particles in the presence of counter-ions. Such particles interact via the screened-charge Yukawa potential and the inclusion of SCN leads to the emergence of the anomalous frictionless regime. In this regime the particles can experience active propulsion leading to the transient attraction effect. This effect suggests a nonequilibrium mechanism facilitating the molecular binding of the like-charged particles.

A dynamic landscape model for fish in the Everglades and its application to restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gaff, H.D.; DeAngelis, D.L.; Gross, L.J.; Salinas, R.; Shorrosh, M.

2000-01-01

A model (ALFISH) for fish functional groups in freshwater marshes of the greater Everglades area of southern Florida has been developed. Its main objective is to assess the spatial pattern of fish densities through time across freshwater marshes. This model has the capability of providing a dynamic measure of the spatially-explicit food resources available to wading birds. ALFISH simulates two functional groups, large and small fish, where the larger ones can prey on the small fish type. Both functional groups are size-structured. The marsh landscape is modeled as 500×500 m spatial cells on a grid across southern Florida. A hydrology model predicts water levels in the spatial cells on 5-day time steps. Fish populations spread across the marsh during flooded conditions and either retreat into refugia (alligator ponds), move to other spatial cells, or die if their cell dries out. ALFISH has been applied to the evaluation of alternative water regulation scenarios under the Central and South Florida Comprehensive Project Review Study. The objective of this Review Study is to compare alternative methods for restoring historical ecological conditions in southern Florida. ALFISH has provided information on which plans are most are likely to increase fish biomass and its availability to wading bird populations.

Nanoscale dynamics of Joule heating and bubble nucleation in a solid-state nanopore.

PubMed

Levine, Edlyn V; Burns, Michael M; Golovchenko, Jene A

2016-01-01

We present a mathematical model for Joule heating of an electrolytic solution in a nanopore. The model couples the electrical and thermal dynamics responsible for rapid and extreme superheating of the electrolyte within the nanopore. The model is implemented numerically with a finite element calculation, yielding a time and spatially resolved temperature distribution in the nanopore region. Temperatures near the thermodynamic limit of superheat are predicted to be attained just before the explosive nucleation of a vapor bubble is observed experimentally. Knowledge of this temperature distribution enables the evaluation of related phenomena including bubble nucleation kinetics, relaxation oscillation, and bubble dynamics.

3D undersampled golden-radial phase encoding for DCE-MRA using inherently regularized iterative SENSE.

PubMed

Prieto, Claudia; Uribe, Sergio; Razavi, Reza; Atkinson, David; Schaeffter, Tobias

2010-08-01

One of the current limitations of dynamic contrast-enhanced MR angiography is the requirement of both high spatial and high temporal resolution. Several undersampling techniques have been proposed to overcome this problem. However, in most of these methods the tradeoff between spatial and temporal resolution is constant for all the time frames and needs to be specified prior to data collection. This is not optimal for dynamic contrast-enhanced MR angiography where the dynamics of the process are difficult to predict and the image quality requirements are changing during the bolus passage. Here, we propose a new highly undersampled approach that allows the retrospective adaptation of the spatial and temporal resolution. The method combines a three-dimensional radial phase encoding trajectory with the golden angle profile order and non-Cartesian Sensitivity Encoding (SENSE) reconstruction. Different regularization images, obtained from the same acquired data, are used to stabilize the non-Cartesian SENSE reconstruction for the different phases of the bolus passage. The feasibility of the proposed method was demonstrated on a numerical phantom and in three-dimensional intracranial dynamic contrast-enhanced MR angiography of healthy volunteers. The acquired data were reconstructed retrospectively with temporal resolutions from 1.2 sec to 8.1 sec, providing a good depiction of small vessels, as well as distinction of different temporal phases.

How Fast Do Objects Fall in Visual Memory? Uncovering the Temporal and Spatial Features of Representational Gravity

PubMed Central

De Sá Teixeira, Nuno

2016-01-01

Visual memory for the spatial location where a moving target vanishes has been found to be systematically displaced downward in the direction of gravity. Moreover, it was recently reported that the magnitude of the downward error increases steadily with increasing retention intervals imposed after object’s offset and before observers are allowed to perform the spatial localization task, in a pattern where the remembered vanishing location drifts downward as if following a falling trajectory. This outcome was taken to reflect the dynamics of a representational model of earth’s gravity. The present study aims to establish the spatial and temporal features of this downward drift by taking into account the dynamics of the motor response. The obtained results show that the memory for the last location of the target drifts downward with time, thus replicating previous results. Moreover, the time taken for completion of the behavioural localization movements seems to add to the imposed retention intervals in determining the temporal frame during which the visual memory is updated. Overall, it is reported that the representation of spatial location drifts downward by about 3 pixels for each two-fold increase of time until response. The outcomes are discussed in relation to a predictive internal model of gravity which outputs an on-line spatial update of remembered objects’ location. PMID:26910260

Temporal dynamics of divided spatial attention

PubMed Central

Garcia, Javier O.; Serences, John T.

2013-01-01

In naturalistic settings, observers often have to monitor multiple objects dispersed throughout the visual scene. However, the degree to which spatial attention can be divided across spatially noncontiguous objects has long been debated, particularly when those objects are in close proximity. Moreover, the temporal dynamics of divided attention are unclear: is the process of dividing spatial attention gradual and continuous, or does it onset in a discrete manner? To address these issues, we recorded steady-state visual evoked potentials (SSVEPs) as subjects covertly monitored two flickering targets while ignoring an intervening distractor that flickered at a different frequency. All three stimuli were clustered within either the lower left or the lower right quadrant, and our dependent measure was SSVEP power at the target and distractor frequencies measured over time. In two experiments, we observed a temporally discrete increase in power for target- vs. distractor-evoked SSVEPs extending from ∼350 to 150 ms prior to correct (but not incorrect) responses. The divergence in SSVEP power immediately prior to a correct response suggests that spatial attention can be divided across noncontiguous locations, even when the targets are closely spaced within a single quadrant. In addition, the division of spatial attention appears to be relatively discrete, as opposed to slow and continuous. Finally, the predictive relationship between SSVEP power and behavior demonstrates that these neurophysiological measures of divided attention are meaningfully related to cognitive function. PMID:23390315

Temporal dynamics of divided spatial attention.

PubMed

Itthipuripat, Sirawaj; Garcia, Javier O; Serences, John T

2013-05-01

In naturalistic settings, observers often have to monitor multiple objects dispersed throughout the visual scene. However, the degree to which spatial attention can be divided across spatially noncontiguous objects has long been debated, particularly when those objects are in close proximity. Moreover, the temporal dynamics of divided attention are unclear: is the process of dividing spatial attention gradual and continuous, or does it onset in a discrete manner? To address these issues, we recorded steady-state visual evoked potentials (SSVEPs) as subjects covertly monitored two flickering targets while ignoring an intervening distractor that flickered at a different frequency. All three stimuli were clustered within either the lower left or the lower right quadrant, and our dependent measure was SSVEP power at the target and distractor frequencies measured over time. In two experiments, we observed a temporally discrete increase in power for target- vs. distractor-evoked SSVEPs extending from ∼350 to 150 ms prior to correct (but not incorrect) responses. The divergence in SSVEP power immediately prior to a correct response suggests that spatial attention can be divided across noncontiguous locations, even when the targets are closely spaced within a single quadrant. In addition, the division of spatial attention appears to be relatively discrete, as opposed to slow and continuous. Finally, the predictive relationship between SSVEP power and behavior demonstrates that these neurophysiological measures of divided attention are meaningfully related to cognitive function.

Evolutionary games and spatial chaos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowak, Martin A.; May, Robert M.

1992-10-01

MUCH attention has been given to the Prisoners' Dilemma as a metaphor for the problems surrounding the evolution of coopera-tive behaviour1-6. This work has dealt with the relative merits of various strategies (such as tit-for-tat) when players who recognize each other meet repeatedly, and more recently with ensembles of strategies and with the effects of occasional errors. Here we neglect all strategical niceties or memories of past encounters, considering only two simple kinds of players: those who always cooperate and those who always defect. We explore the consequences of placing these players in a two-dimensional spatial array: in each round, every individual 'plays the game' with the immediate neighbours; after this, each site is occupied either by its original owner or by one of the neighbours, depending on who scores the highest total in that round; and so to the next round of the game. This simple, and purely deterministic, spatial version of the Prisoners' Dilemma, with no memories among players and no strategical elaboration, can generate chaotically changing spatial patterns, in which cooperators and defectors both persist indefinitely (in fluctuating proportions about predictable long-term averages). If the starting configurations are sufficiently symmetrical, these ever-changing sequences of spatial patterns-dynamic fractals-can be extraordinarily beautiful, and have interesting mathematical properties. There are potential implications for the dynamics of a wide variety of spatially extended systems in physics and biology.

How Fast Do Objects Fall in Visual Memory? Uncovering the Temporal and Spatial Features of Representational Gravity.

PubMed

De Sá Teixeira, Nuno

2016-01-01

Visual memory for the spatial location where a moving target vanishes has been found to be systematically displaced downward in the direction of gravity. Moreover, it was recently reported that the magnitude of the downward error increases steadily with increasing retention intervals imposed after object's offset and before observers are allowed to perform the spatial localization task, in a pattern where the remembered vanishing location drifts downward as if following a falling trajectory. This outcome was taken to reflect the dynamics of a representational model of earth's gravity. The present study aims to establish the spatial and temporal features of this downward drift by taking into account the dynamics of the motor response. The obtained results show that the memory for the last location of the target drifts downward with time, thus replicating previous results. Moreover, the time taken for completion of the behavioural localization movements seems to add to the imposed retention intervals in determining the temporal frame during which the visual memory is updated. Overall, it is reported that the representation of spatial location drifts downward by about 3 pixels for each two-fold increase of time until response. The outcomes are discussed in relation to a predictive internal model of gravity which outputs an on-line spatial update of remembered objects' location.

Dynamical attribution of oceanic prediction uncertainty in the North Atlantic: application to the design of optimal monitoring systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sévellec, Florian; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Drijfhout, Sybren S.; Germe, Agathe

2017-11-01

In this study, the relation between two approaches to assess the ocean predictability on interannual to decadal time scales is investigated. The first pragmatic approach consists of sampling the initial condition uncertainty and assess the predictability through the divergence of this ensemble in time. The second approach is provided by a theoretical framework to determine error growth by estimating optimal linear growing modes. In this paper, it is shown that under the assumption of linearized dynamics and normal distributions of the uncertainty, the exact quantitative spread of ensemble can be determined from the theoretical framework. This spread is at least an order of magnitude less expensive to compute than the approximate solution given by the pragmatic approach. This result is applied to a state-of-the-art Ocean General Circulation Model to assess the predictability in the North Atlantic of four typical oceanic metrics: the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the intensity of its heat transport, the two-dimensional spatially-averaged Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the North Atlantic, and the three-dimensional spatially-averaged temperature in the North Atlantic. For all tested metrics, except for SST, ˜ 75% of the total uncertainty on interannual time scales can be attributed to oceanic initial condition uncertainty rather than atmospheric stochastic forcing. The theoretical method also provide the sensitivity pattern to the initial condition uncertainty, allowing for targeted measurements to improve the skill of the prediction. It is suggested that a relatively small fleet of several autonomous underwater vehicles can reduce the uncertainty in AMOC strength prediction by 70% for 1-5 years lead times.

The evolution of a Müllerian mimic in a spatially distributed community.

PubMed

Joron, Mathieu; Iwasa, Yoh

2005-11-07

Strong positive density-dependence should lead to a loss of diversity, but warning-colour and Müllerian mimicry systems show extraordinary levels of diversity. Here, we propose an analytical model to explore the dynamics of two forms of a Müllerian mimic in a heterogeneous environment with two alternative model species. Two connected populations of a dimorphic, chemically defended mimic are allowed to evolve and disperse. The proportions of the respective model species vary spatially. We use a nonlinear approximation of Müller's number-dependent equations to model a situation where the mortality for either form of the mimic decreases hyberbolically when its local density increases. A first non-spatial analysis confirms that the positive density-dependence makes coexistence of mimetic forms unstable in a single isolated patch, but shows that mimicry of the rarer model can be stable once established. The two-patch analysis shows that when models have different abundance in different places, local mimetic diversity in the mimic is maintained only if spatial heterogeneity is strong, or, more interestingly, if the mimic is not too strongly distasteful. Therefore, mildly toxic species can become polymorphic in a wider range of ecological settings. Spatial dynamics thus reveal a region of Müllerian polymorphism separating classical Batesian polymorphism and Müllerian monomorphism along the mimic's palatability spectrum. Such polymorphism-palatability relationship in a spatial environment provides a parsimonious hypothesis accounting for the observed Müllerian polymorphism that does not require quasi-Batesian dynamics. While the stability of coexistence depends on all factors, only the migration rate and strength of selection appear to affect the level of diversity at the polymorphic equilibrium. Local adaptation is predicted in most polymorphic cases. These results are in very good accordance with recent empirical findings on the polymorphic butterflies Heliconius numata and H. cydno.

Life history determines genetic structure and evolutionary potential of host–parasite interactions

PubMed Central

Barrett, Luke G.; Thrall, Peter H.; Burdon, Jeremy J.; Linde, Celeste C.

2009-01-01

Measures of population genetic structure and diversity of disease-causing organisms are commonly used to draw inferences regarding their evolutionary history and potential to generate new variation in traits that determine interactions with their hosts. Parasite species exhibit a range of population structures and life-history strategies, including different transmission modes, life-cycle complexity, off-host survival mechanisms and dispersal ability. These are important determinants of the frequency and predictability of interactions with host species. Yet the complex causal relationships between spatial structure, life history and the evolutionary dynamics of parasite populations are not well understood. We demonstrate that a clear picture of the evolutionary potential of parasitic organisms and their demographic and evolutionary histories can only come from understanding the role of life history and spatial structure in influencing population dynamics and epidemiological patterns. PMID:18947899

Food-web complexity, meta-community complexity and community stability.

PubMed

Mougi, A; Kondoh, M

2016-04-13

What allows interacting, diverse species to coexist in nature has been a central question in ecology, ever since the theoretical prediction that a complex community should be inherently unstable. Although the role of spatiality in species coexistence has been recognized, its application to more complex systems has been less explored. Here, using a meta-community model of food web, we show that meta-community complexity, measured by the number of local food webs and their connectedness, elicits a self-regulating, negative-feedback mechanism and thus stabilizes food-web dynamics. Moreover, the presence of meta-community complexity can give rise to a positive food-web complexity-stability effect. Spatiality may play a more important role in stabilizing dynamics of complex, real food webs than expected from ecological theory based on the models of simpler food webs.

Life history determines genetic structure and evolutionary potential of host-parasite interactions.

PubMed

Barrett, Luke G; Thrall, Peter H; Burdon, Jeremy J; Linde, Celeste C

2008-12-01

Measures of population genetic structure and diversity of disease-causing organisms are commonly used to draw inferences regarding their evolutionary history and potential to generate new variation in traits that determine interactions with their hosts. Parasite species exhibit a range of population structures and life-history strategies, including different transmission modes, life-cycle complexity, off-host survival mechanisms and dispersal ability. These are important determinants of the frequency and predictability of interactions with host species. Yet the complex causal relationships between spatial structure, life history and the evolutionary dynamics of parasite populations are not well understood. We demonstrate that a clear picture of the evolutionary potential of parasitic organisms and their demographic and evolutionary histories can only come from understanding the role of life history and spatial structure in influencing population dynamics and epidemiological patterns.

Dynamically downscaling predictions for deciduous tree leaf emergence in California under current and future climate.

PubMed

Medvigy, David; Kim, Seung Hee; Kim, Jinwon; Kafatos, Menas C

2016-07-01

Models that predict the timing of deciduous tree leaf emergence are typically very sensitive to temperature. However, many temperature data products, including those from climate models, have been developed at a very coarse spatial resolution. Such coarse-resolution temperature products can lead to highly biased predictions of leaf emergence. This study investigates how dynamical downscaling of climate models impacts simulations of deciduous tree leaf emergence in California. Models for leaf emergence are forced with temperatures simulated by a general circulation model (GCM) at ~200-km resolution for 1981-2000 and 2031-2050 conditions. GCM simulations are then dynamically downscaled to 32- and 8-km resolution, and leaf emergence is again simulated. For 1981-2000, the regional average leaf emergence date is 30.8 days earlier in 32-km simulations than in ~200-km simulations. Differences between the 32 and 8 km simulations are small and mostly local. The impact of downscaling from 200 to 8 km is ~15 % smaller in 2031-2050 than in 1981-2000, indicating that the impacts of downscaling are unlikely to be stationary.

Distinct spatiotemporal activity in principal neurons of the mouse olfactory bulb in anesthetized and awake states

PubMed Central

Blauvelt, David G.; Sato, Tomokazu F.; Wienisch, Martin; Murthy, Venkatesh N.

2013-01-01

The acquisition of olfactory information and its early processing in mammals are modulated by brain states through sniffing behavior and neural feedback. We imaged the spatiotemporal pattern of odor-evoked activity in a population of output neurons (mitral/tufted cells, MTCs) in the olfactory bulb (OB) of head-restrained mice expressing a genetically-encoded calcium indicator. The temporal dynamics of MTC population activity were relatively simple in anesthetized animals, but were highly variable in awake animals. However, the apparently irregular activity in awake animals could be predicted well using sniff timing measured externally, or inferred through fluctuations in the global responses of MTC population even without explicit knowledge of sniff times. The overall spatial pattern of activity was conserved across states, but odor responses had a diffuse spatial component in anesthetized mice that was less prominent during wakefulness. Multi-photon microscopy indicated that MTC lateral dendrites were the likely source of spatially disperse responses in the anesthetized animal. Our data demonstrate that the temporal and spatial dynamics of MTCs can be significantly modulated by behavioral state, and that the ensemble activity of MTCs can provide information about sniff timing to downstream circuits to help decode odor responses. PMID:23543674

A Simple Model for Complex Dynamical Transitions in Epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earn, David J. D.; Rohani, Pejman; Bolker, Benjamin M.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

2000-01-01

Dramatic changes in patterns of epidemics have been observed throughout this century. For childhood infectious diseases such as measles, the major transitions are between regular cycles and irregular, possibly chaotic epidemics, and from regionally synchronized oscillations to complex, spatially incoherent epidemics. A simple model can explain both kinds of transitions as the consequences of changes in birth and vaccination rates. Measles is a natural ecological system that exhibits different dynamical transitions at different times and places, yet all of these transitions can be predicted as bifurcations of a single nonlinear model.

LIMAO: Cross-platform software for simulating laser-induced alignment and orientation dynamics of linear-, symmetric- and asymmetric tops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szidarovszky, Tamás; Jono, Maho; Yamanouchi, Kaoru

2018-07-01

A user-friendly and cross-platform software called Laser-Induced Molecular Alignment and Orientation simulator (LIMAO) has been developed. The program can be used to simulate within the rigid rotor approximation the rotational dynamics of gas phase molecules induced by linearly polarized intense laser fields at a given temperature. The software is implemented in the Java and Mathematica programming languages. The primary aim of LIMAO is to aid experimental scientists in predicting and analyzing experimental data representing laser-induced spatial alignment and orientation of molecules.

Dynamic interpretation of geoid anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hager, Bradford H.

1988-01-01

The NASA Geodynamics program has as two of its missions precise determination of spatial variations in earth's geopotential (or geoid) and highly accurate monitoring of polar motion, including changes in the length of day (LOD). For the past several years, data sets provided by NASA, along with data and models from other areas of geophysic were used to place fundamental contraints on the large scale dynamics of earth and her sister planet Venus. The main approach was using fluid mechanical models of mantle flow to predict the long-wavelength variations in the geoid.

Characterization of the Dispersal of Non-Domiciliated Triatoma dimidiata through the Selection of Spatially Explicit Models

PubMed Central

Barbu, Corentin; Dumonteil, Eric; Gourbière, Sébastien

2010-01-01

Background Chagas disease is a major parasitic disease in Latin America, prevented in part by vector control programs that reduce domestic populations of triatomines. However, the design of control strategies adapted to non-domiciliated vectors, such as Triatoma dimidiata, remains a challenge because it requires an accurate description of their spatio-temporal distributions, and a proper understanding of the underlying dispersal processes. Methodology/Principal Findings We combined extensive spatio-temporal data sets describing house infestation dynamics by T. dimidiata within a village, and spatially explicit population dynamics models in a selection model approach. Several models were implemented to provide theoretical predictions under different hypotheses on the origin of the dispersers and their dispersal characteristics, which we compared with the spatio-temporal pattern of infestation observed in the field. The best models fitted the dynamic of infestation described by a one year time-series, and also predicted with a very good accuracy the infestation process observed during a second replicate one year time-series. The parameterized models gave key insights into the dispersal of these vectors. i) About 55% of the triatomines infesting houses came from the peridomestic habitat, the rest corresponding to immigration from the sylvatic habitat, ii) dispersing triatomines were 5–15 times more attracted by houses than by peridomestic area, and iii) the moving individuals spread on average over rather small distances, typically 40–60 m/15 days. Conclusion/Significance Since these dispersal characteristics are associated with much higher abundance of insects in the periphery of the village, we discuss the possibility that spatially targeted interventions allow for optimizing the efficacy of vector control activities within villages. Such optimization could prove very useful in the context of limited resources devoted to vector control. PMID:20689823

Quantifying Subsurface Water and Heat Distribution and its Linkage with Landscape Properties in Terrestrial Environment using Hydro-Thermal-Geophysical Monitoring and Coupled Inverse Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dafflon, B.; Tran, A. P.; Wainwright, H. M.; Hubbard, S. S.; Peterson, J.; Ulrich, C.; Williams, K. H.

2015-12-01

Quantifying water and heat fluxes in the subsurface is crucial for managing water resources and for understanding the terrestrial ecosystem where hydrological properties drive a variety of biogeochemical processes across a large range of spatial and temporal scales. Here, we present the development of an advanced monitoring strategy where hydro-thermal-geophysical datasets are continuously acquired and further involved in a novel inverse modeling framework to estimate the hydraulic and thermal parameter that control heat and water dynamics in the subsurface and further influence surface processes such as evapotranspiration and vegetation growth. The measured and estimated soil properties are also used to investigate co-interaction between subsurface and surface dynamics by using above-ground aerial imaging. The value of this approach is demonstrated at two different sites, one in the polygonal shaped Arctic tundra where water and heat dynamics have a strong impact on freeze-thaw processes, vegetation and biogeochemical processes, and one in a floodplain along the Colorado River where hydrological fluxes between compartments of the system (surface, vadose zone and groundwater) drive biogeochemical transformations. Results show that the developed strategy using geophysical, point-scale and aerial measurements is successful to delineate the spatial distribution of hydrostratigraphic units having distinct physicochemical properties, to monitor and quantify in high resolution water and heat distribution and its linkage with vegetation, geomorphology and weather conditions, and to estimate hydraulic and thermal parameters for enhanced predictions of water and heat fluxes as well as evapotranspiration. Further, in the Colorado floodplain, results document the potential presence of only periodic infiltration pulses as a key hot moment controlling soil hydro and biogeochemical functioning. In the arctic, results show the strong linkage between soil water content, thermal parameters, thaw layer thickness and vegetation distribution. Overall, results of these efforts demonstrate the value of coupling various datasets at high spatial and temporal resolution to improve predictive understanding of subsurface and surface dynamics.

Species and temperature measurement in H2/O2 rocket flow fields by means of Raman scattering diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

De Groot, Wim A.; Weiss, Jonathan M.

1992-01-01

Validation of CFD codes developed for prediction and evaluation of rocket performance is hampered by a lack of experimental data. Nonintrusive laser based diagnostics are needed to provide spatially and temporally resolved gas dynamic and fluid dynamic measurements. This paper reports the first nonintrusive temperature and species measurements in the plume of a 110 N gaseous hydrogen/oxygen thruster at and below ambient pressures, obtained with spontaneous Raman spectroscopy. Measurements at 10 mm downstream of the exit plane are compared with predictions from a numerical solution of the axisymmetric Navier-Stokes and species transport equations with chemical kinetics, which fully model the combustor-nozzle-plume flowfield. The experimentally determined oxygen number density at the centerline at 10 mm downstream of the exit plane is four times that predicted by the model. The experimental number density data fall between those numerically predicted for the exit and 10 mm downstream planes in both magnitude and radial gradient. The predicted temperature levels are within 10 to 15 percent of measured values.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this article, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on amore » literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Lastly, monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.« less

Bridging the gap between computation and clinical biology: validation of cable theory in humans

PubMed Central

Finlay, Malcolm C.; Xu, Lei; Taggart, Peter; Hanson, Ben; Lambiase, Pier D.

2013-01-01

Introduction: Computerized simulations of cardiac activity have significantly contributed to our understanding of cardiac electrophysiology, but techniques of simulations based on patient-acquired data remain in their infancy. We sought to integrate data acquired from human electrophysiological studies into patient-specific models, and validated this approach by testing whether electrophysiological responses to sequential premature stimuli could be predicted in a quantitatively accurate manner. Methods: Eleven patients with structurally normal hearts underwent electrophysiological studies. Semi-automated analysis was used to reconstruct activation and repolarization dynamics for each electrode. This S2 extrastimuli data was used to inform individualized models of cardiac conduction, including a novel derivation of conduction velocity restitution. Activation dynamics of multiple premature extrastimuli were then predicted from this model and compared against measured patient data as well as data derived from the ten-Tusscher cell-ionic model. Results: Activation dynamics following a premature S3 were significantly different from those after an S2. Patient specific models demonstrated accurate prediction of the S3 activation wave, (Pearson's R2 = 0.90, median error 4%). Examination of the modeled conduction dynamics allowed inferences into the spatial dispersion of activation delay. Further validation was performed against data from the ten-Tusscher cell-ionic model, with our model accurately recapitulating predictions of repolarization times (R2 = 0.99). Conclusions: Simulations based on clinically acquired data can be used to successfully predict complex activation patterns following sequential extrastimuli. Such modeling techniques may be useful as a method of incorporation of clinical data into predictive models. PMID:24027527

Statistical prediction of nanoparticle delivery: from culture media to cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowan Brown, M.; Hondow, Nicole; Brydson, Rik; Rees, Paul; Brown, Andrew P.; Summers, Huw D.

2015-04-01

The application of nanoparticles (NPs) within medicine is of great interest; their innate physicochemical characteristics provide the potential to enhance current technology, diagnostics and therapeutics. Recently a number of NP-based diagnostic and therapeutic agents have been developed for treatment of various diseases, where judicious surface functionalization is exploited to increase efficacy of administered therapeutic dose. However, quantification of heterogeneity associated with absolute dose of a nanotherapeutic (NP number), how this is trafficked across biological barriers has proven difficult to achieve. The main issue being the quantitative assessment of NP number at the spatial scale of the individual NP, data which is essential for the continued growth and development of the next generation of nanotherapeutics. Recent advances in sample preparation and the imaging fidelity of transmission electron microscopy (TEM) platforms provide information at the required spatial scale, where individual NPs can be individually identified. High spatial resolution however reduces the sample frequency and as a result dynamic biological features or processes become opaque. However, the combination of TEM data with appropriate probabilistic models provide a means to extract biophysical information that imaging alone cannot. Previously, we demonstrated that limited cell sampling via TEM can be statistically coupled to large population flow cytometry measurements to quantify exact NP dose. Here we extended this concept to link TEM measurements of NP agglomerates in cell culture media to that encapsulated within vesicles in human osteosarcoma cells. By construction and validation of a data-driven transfer function, we are able to investigate the dynamic properties of NP agglomeration through endocytosis. In particular, we statistically predict how NP agglomerates may traverse a biological barrier, detailing inter-agglomerate merging events providing the basis for predictive modelling of nanopharmacology.

Continuous attractor network models of grid cell firing based on excitatory–inhibitory interactions

PubMed Central

Shipston‐Sharman, Oliver; Solanka, Lukas

2016-01-01

Abstract Neurons in the medial entorhinal cortex encode location through spatial firing fields that have a grid‐like organisation. The challenge of identifying mechanisms for grid firing has been addressed through experimental and theoretical investigations of medial entorhinal circuits. Here, we discuss evidence for continuous attractor network models that account for grid firing by synaptic interactions between excitatory and inhibitory cells. These models assume that grid‐like firing patterns are the result of computation of location from velocity inputs, with additional spatial input required to oppose drift in the attractor state. We focus on properties of continuous attractor networks that are revealed by explicitly considering excitatory and inhibitory neurons, their connectivity and their membrane potential dynamics. Models at this level of detail can account for theta‐nested gamma oscillations as well as grid firing, predict spatial firing of interneurons as well as excitatory cells, show how gamma oscillations can be modulated independently from spatial computations, reveal critical roles for neuronal noise, and demonstrate that only a subset of excitatory cells in a network need have grid‐like firing fields. Evaluating experimental data against predictions from detailed network models will be important for establishing the mechanisms mediating grid firing. PMID:27870120

Dynamical Scaling Implications of Ferrari, Prähofer, and Spohn's Remarkable Spatial Scaling Results for Facet-Edge Fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Einstein, T. L.; Pimpinelli, Alberto

2014-06-01

Spurred by theoretical predictions from Ferrari et al. (Phys Rev E 69:035102(R), 2004), we rederived and extended their result heuristically. With experimental colleagues we used STM line scans to corroborate their prediction that the fluctuations of the step bounding a facet exhibit scaling properties distinct from those of isolated steps or steps on vicinal surfaces. The correlation functions was shown to go as , decidedly different from the behavior for fluctuations of isolated steps.

Cortical Dynamics of Contextually Cued Attentive Visual Learning and Search: Spatial and Object Evidence Accumulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Tsung-Ren; Grossberg, Stephen

2010-01-01

How do humans use target-predictive contextual information to facilitate visual search? How are consistently paired scenic objects and positions learned and used to more efficiently guide search in familiar scenes? For example, humans can learn that a certain combination of objects may define a context for a kitchen and trigger a more efficient…

Strong spatial variability in trace gas dynamics following experimental drought in a humid tropical forest

Treesearch

Tana Wood; W. L. Silver

2012-01-01

[1] Soil moisture is a key driver of biogeochemical processes in terrestrial ecosystems, strongly affecting carbon (C) and nutrient availability as well as trace gas production and consumption in soils. Models predict increasing drought frequency in tropical forest ecosystems, which could feed back on future climate change directly via effects on trace gasdynamics and...

Modeling the spatial and temporal dynamics of isolated emerald ash borer populations

Treesearch

Nathan W. Siegert; Andrew M. Liebhold; Deborah G. McCullough

2008-01-01

The ability to predict the distance and rate of emerald ash borer (EAB) spread in outlier populations is needed to continue development of effective management strategies for improved EAB control. We have developed a coupled map lattice model to estimate the spread and dispersal of isolated emerald ash borer populations. This model creates an artificial environment in...

Disease Risk in a Dynamic Environment: The Spread of Tick-Borne Pathogens in Minnesota, USA

PubMed Central

Robinson, Stacie J.; Neitzel, David F.; Moen, Ronald A.; Craft, Meggan E.; Hamilton, Karin E.; Johnson, Lucinda B.; Mulla, David J.; Munderloh, Ulrike G.; Redig, Patrick T.; Smith, Kirk E.; Turner, Clarence L.; Umber, Jamie K.; Pelican, Katharine M.

2015-01-01

As humans and climate change alter the landscape, novel disease risk scenarios emerge. Understanding the complexities of pathogen emergence and subsequent spread as shaped by landscape heterogeneity is crucial to understanding disease emergence, pinpointing high-risk areas, and mitigating emerging disease threats in a dynamic environment. Tick-borne diseases present an important public health concern and incidence of many of these diseases are increasing in the United States. The complex epidemiology of tick-borne diseases includes strong ties with environmental factors that influence host availability, vector abundance, and pathogen transmission. Here, we used 16 years of case data from the Minnesota Department of Health to report spatial and temporal trends in Lyme disease (LD), human anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. We then used a spatial regression framework to evaluate the impact of landscape and climate factors on the spread of LD. Finally, we use the fitted model, and landscape and climate datasets projected under varying climate change scenarios, to predict future changes in tick-borne pathogen risk. Both forested habitat and temperature were important drivers of LD spread in Minnesota. Dramatic changes in future temperature regimes and forest communities predict rising risk of tick-borne disease. PMID:25281302

Temporal ecology in the Anthropocene.

PubMed

Wolkovich, E M; Cook, B I; McLauchlan, K K; Davies, T J

2014-11-01

Two fundamental axes - space and time - shape ecological systems. Over the last 30 years spatial ecology has developed as an integrative, multidisciplinary science that has improved our understanding of the ecological consequences of habitat fragmentation and loss. We argue that accelerating climate change - the effective manipulation of time by humans - has generated a current need to build an equivalent framework for temporal ecology. Climate change has at once pressed ecologists to understand and predict ecological dynamics in non-stationary environments, while also challenged fundamental assumptions of many concepts, models and approaches. However, similarities between space and time, especially related issues of scaling, provide an outline for improving ecological models and forecasting of temporal dynamics, while the unique attributes of time, particularly its emphasis on events and its singular direction, highlight where new approaches are needed. We emphasise how a renewed, interdisciplinary focus on time would coalesce related concepts, help develop new theories and methods and guide further data collection. The next challenge will be to unite predictive frameworks from spatial and temporal ecology to build robust forecasts of when and where environmental change will pose the largest threats to species and ecosystems, as well as identifying the best opportunities for conservation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Disease risk in a dynamic environment: the spread of tick-borne pathogens in Minnesota, USA.

PubMed

Robinson, Stacie J; Neitzel, David F; Moen, Ronald A; Craft, Meggan E; Hamilton, Karin E; Johnson, Lucinda B; Mulla, David J; Munderloh, Ulrike G; Redig, Patrick T; Smith, Kirk E; Turner, Clarence L; Umber, Jamie K; Pelican, Katharine M

2015-03-01

As humans and climate change alter the landscape, novel disease risk scenarios emerge. Understanding the complexities of pathogen emergence and subsequent spread as shaped by landscape heterogeneity is crucial to understanding disease emergence, pinpointing high-risk areas, and mitigating emerging disease threats in a dynamic environment. Tick-borne diseases present an important public health concern and incidence of many of these diseases are increasing in the United States. The complex epidemiology of tick-borne diseases includes strong ties with environmental factors that influence host availability, vector abundance, and pathogen transmission. Here, we used 16 years of case data from the Minnesota Department of Health to report spatial and temporal trends in Lyme disease (LD), human anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. We then used a spatial regression framework to evaluate the impact of landscape and climate factors on the spread of LD. Finally, we use the fitted model, and landscape and climate datasets projected under varying climate change scenarios, to predict future changes in tick-borne pathogen risk. Both forested habitat and temperature were important drivers of LD spread in Minnesota. Dramatic changes in future temperature regimes and forest communities predict rising risk of tick-borne disease.

Quantifying forest LAI succession in sub-tropical forests using time-series of Landsat data, 1987 -2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Q.; Song, J.; Wang, J.; Chen, S.; Yu, B.; Liao, L.

2016-12-01

Monitoring the dynamics of leaf area index (LAI) throughout the life-cycle of forests (from seeding to maturity) is vital for simulating forest growth and quantifying carbon sequestration. However, all current global LAI produts show extremely low accuracy in forests and the coarse spatial resolution(nearly 1-km) mismatch with the spatial scale of forest inventory plots (nearly 26m*26m). To date, several studies have explored the possibility of satellite data to classify forest succession or predict stand age. And a few studies have explored the potential of using long term Landsat data to monitor the growing trend of forests, but no studies have quantified the inter-annual and intra-annual LAI dynamics along with forest succession. Vegetation indexes are not perfect variables in quantifying forest foliage dynamics. Hallet (1995) suggested remote sensing of biophysical characteristics should shift away from direct inference from vegetation indices toward more physically based algorithms. This work intends to be a pioneer example for improving the accuracy of forests LAI and providing temporal-spatial matching LAI datasets for monitoring forest processes. We integrates the Geometric-Optical and Radiative Transfer (GORT) model with the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG) model to improve the estimation of the forest canopy LAI dynamics. Reflectance time-series data from 1987 to 2015 were collected and preprocessed for forests in southern China, using all available Landsat data (with <80% cloud). Effective LAI and true LAI were field measured to validate our results using various instruments, including digital hemispheric photographs (DHP), LAI-2000 Plant Canopy Analyzer (LI-COR), and Tracing radiation and Architecture of Canopies (TRAC). Results show that the relationship between spectral metrics of satellite images and forest LAI is clear in early stages before maturity. 3-PG provide accurate inter-annual trend of forest LAI, while satellite images provide clear intra-annual LAI dynamics. We concluded that the GORT-3PG model improved the LAI estimation significantly of forest stands. Improving forest LAI estimates will help inform forest management policy and such methods may be applied in other similar forests.

Integrated approach to monitor water dynamics with drones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raymaekers, Dries; De Keukelaere, Liesbeth; Knaeps, Els; Strackx, Gert; Decrop, Boudewijn; Bollen, Mark

2017-04-01

Remote sensing has been used for more than 20 years to estimate water quality in the open ocean and study the evolution of vegetation on land. More recently big improvements have been made to extend these practices to coastal and inland waters, opening new monitoring opportunities, eg. monitoring the impact of dredging activities on the aquatic environment. While satellite sensors can provide complete coverage and historical information of the study area, they are limited in their temporal revisit time and spatial resolution. Therefore, deployment of drones can create an added value and in combination with satellite information increase insights in the dynamics and actors of coastal and aquatic systems. Drones have the advantages of monitoring at high spatial detail (cm scale), with high frequency and are flexible. One of the important water quality parameters is the suspended sediment concentration. However, retrieving sediment concentrations from unmanned systems is a challenging task. The sediment dynamics in the port of Breskens, the Netherlands, were investigated by combining information retrieved from different data sources: satellite, drone and in-situ data were collected, analysed and inserted in sediment models. As such, historical (satellite), near-real time (drone) and predictive (sediment models) information, integrated in a spatial data infrastructure, allow to perform data analysis and can support decision makers.

Fortune favours the brave: Movement responses shape demographic dynamics in strongly competing populations.

PubMed

Potts, Jonathan R; Petrovskii, Sergei V

2017-05-07

Animal movement is a key mechanism for shaping population dynamics. The effect of interactions between competing animals on a population's survival has been studied for many decades. However, interactions also affect an animal's subsequent movement decisions. Despite this, the indirect effect of these decisions on animal survival is much less well-understood. Here, we incorporate movement responses to foreign animals into a model of two competing populations, where inter-specific competition is greater than intra-specific competition. When movement is diffusive, the travelling wave moves from the stronger population to the weaker. However, by incorporating behaviourally induced directed movement towards the stronger population, the weaker one can slow the travelling wave down, even reversing its direction. Hence movement responses can switch the predictions of traditional mechanistic models. Furthermore, when environmental heterogeneity is combined with aggressive movement strategies, it is possible for spatially segregated co-existence to emerge. In this situation, the spatial patterns of the competing populations have the unusual feature that they are slightly out-of-phase with the environmental patterns. Finally, incorporating dynamic movement responses can also enable stable co-existence in a homogeneous environment, giving a new mechanism for spatially segregated co-existence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecohydrological interfaces as hot spots of ecosystem processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krause, Stefan; Lewandowski, Jörg; Grimm, Nancy B.; Hannah, David M.; Pinay, Gilles; McDonald, Karlie; Martí, Eugènia; Argerich, Alba; Pfister, Laurent; Klaus, Julian; Battin, Tom; Larned, Scott T.; Schelker, Jacob; Fleckenstein, Jan; Schmidt, Christian; Rivett, Michael O.; Watts, Glenn; Sabater, Francesc; Sorolla, Albert; Turk, Valentina

2017-08-01

The movement of water, matter, organisms, and energy can be altered substantially at ecohydrological interfaces, the dynamic transition zones that often develop within ecotones or boundaries between adjacent ecosystems. Interdisciplinary research over the last two decades has indicated that ecohydrological interfaces are often "hot spots" of ecological, biogeochemical, and hydrological processes and may provide refuge for biota during extreme events. Ecohydrological interfaces can have significant impact on global hydrological and biogeochemical cycles, biodiversity, pollutant removal, and ecosystem resilience to disturbance. The organizational principles (i.e., the drivers and controls) of spatially and temporally variable processes at ecohydrological interfaces are poorly understood and require the integrated analysis of hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological processes. Our rudimentary understanding of the interactions between different drivers and controls critically limits our ability to predict complex system responses to change. In this paper, we explore similarities and contrasts in the functioning of diverse freshwater ecohydrological interfaces across spatial and temporal scales. We use this comparison to develop an integrated, interdisciplinary framework, including a roadmap for analyzing ecohydrological processes and their interactions in ecosystems. We argue that, in order to fully account for their nonlinear process dynamics, ecohydrological interfaces need to be conceptualized as unique, spatially and temporally dynamic entities, which represents a step change from their current representation as boundary conditions at investigated ecosystems.

Calibrating a forest landscape model to simulate frequent fire in Mediterranean-type shrublands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, A.D.; Yang, J.; Franklin, J.; He, H.S.; Keeley, J.E.

2007-01-01

In Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), fire disturbance influences the distribution of most plant communities, and altered fire regimes may be more important than climate factors in shaping future MTE vegetation dynamics. Models that simulate the high-frequency fire and post-fire response strategies characteristic of these regions will be important tools for evaluating potential landscape change scenarios. However, few existing models have been designed to simulate these properties over long time frames and broad spatial scales. We refined a landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) model to operate on an annual time step and to simulate altered fire regimes in a southern California Mediterranean landscape. After developing a comprehensive set of spatial and non-spatial variables and parameters, we calibrated the model to simulate very high fire frequencies and evaluated the simulations under several parameter scenarios representing hypotheses about system dynamics. The goal was to ensure that observed model behavior would simulate the specified fire regime parameters, and that the predictions were reasonable based on current understanding of community dynamics in the region. After calibration, the two dominant plant functional types responded realistically to different fire regime scenarios. Therefore, this model offers a new alternative for simulating altered fire regimes in MTE landscapes. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computational discovery and in vivo validation of hnf4 as a regulatory gene in planarian regeneration.

PubMed

Lobo, Daniel; Morokuma, Junji; Levin, Michael

2016-09-01

Automated computational methods can infer dynamic regulatory network models directly from temporal and spatial experimental data, such as genetic perturbations and their resultant morphologies. Recently, a computational method was able to reverse-engineer the first mechanistic model of planarian regeneration that can recapitulate the main anterior-posterior patterning experiments published in the literature. Validating this comprehensive regulatory model via novel experiments that had not yet been performed would add in our understanding of the remarkable regeneration capacity of planarian worms and demonstrate the power of this automated methodology. Using the Michigan Molecular Interactions and STRING databases and the MoCha software tool, we characterized as hnf4 an unknown regulatory gene predicted to exist by the reverse-engineered dynamic model of planarian regeneration. Then, we used the dynamic model to predict the morphological outcomes under different single and multiple knock-downs (RNA interference) of hnf4 and its predicted gene pathway interactors β-catenin and hh Interestingly, the model predicted that RNAi of hnf4 would rescue the abnormal regenerated phenotype (tailless) of RNAi of hh in amputated trunk fragments. Finally, we validated these predictions in vivo by performing the same surgical and genetic experiments with planarian worms, obtaining the same phenotypic outcomes predicted by the reverse-engineered model. These results suggest that hnf4 is a regulatory gene in planarian regeneration, validate the computational predictions of the reverse-engineered dynamic model, and demonstrate the automated methodology for the discovery of novel genes, pathways and experimental phenotypes. michael.levin@tufts.edu. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Towards robust quantification and reduction of uncertainty in hydrologic predictions: Integration of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo and factorial polynomial chaos expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.; Ancell, B. C.

2017-05-01

The particle filtering techniques have been receiving increasing attention from the hydrologic community due to its ability to properly estimate model parameters and states of nonlinear and non-Gaussian systems. To facilitate a robust quantification of uncertainty in hydrologic predictions, it is necessary to explicitly examine the forward propagation and evolution of parameter uncertainties and their interactions that affect the predictive performance. This paper presents a unified probabilistic framework that merges the strengths of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) and factorial polynomial chaos expansion (FPCE) algorithms to robustly quantify and reduce uncertainties in hydrologic predictions. A Gaussian anamorphosis technique is used to establish a seamless bridge between the data assimilation using the PMCMC and the uncertainty propagation using the FPCE through a straightforward transformation of posterior distributions of model parameters. The unified probabilistic framework is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) region in China to demonstrate its validity and applicability. Results reveal that the degree of spatial variability of soil moisture capacity is the most identifiable model parameter with the fastest convergence through the streamflow assimilation process. The potential interaction between the spatial variability in soil moisture conditions and the maximum soil moisture capacity has the most significant effect on the performance of streamflow predictions. In addition, parameter sensitivities and interactions vary in magnitude and direction over time due to temporal and spatial dynamics of hydrologic processes.

A Simple Iterative Model Accurately Captures Complex Trapline Formation by Bumblebees Across Spatial Scales and Flower Arrangements

PubMed Central

Reynolds, Andrew M.; Lihoreau, Mathieu; Chittka, Lars

2013-01-01

Pollinating bees develop foraging circuits (traplines) to visit multiple flowers in a manner that minimizes overall travel distance, a task analogous to the travelling salesman problem. We report on an in-depth exploration of an iterative improvement heuristic model of bumblebee traplining previously found to accurately replicate the establishment of stable routes by bees between flowers distributed over several hectares. The critical test for a model is its predictive power for empirical data for which the model has not been specifically developed, and here the model is shown to be consistent with observations from different research groups made at several spatial scales and using multiple configurations of flowers. We refine the model to account for the spatial search strategy of bees exploring their environment, and test several previously unexplored predictions. We find that the model predicts accurately 1) the increasing propensity of bees to optimize their foraging routes with increasing spatial scale; 2) that bees cannot establish stable optimal traplines for all spatial configurations of rewarding flowers; 3) the observed trade-off between travel distance and prioritization of high-reward sites (with a slight modification of the model); 4) the temporal pattern with which bees acquire approximate solutions to travelling salesman-like problems over several dozen foraging bouts; 5) the instability of visitation schedules in some spatial configurations of flowers; 6) the observation that in some flower arrays, bees' visitation schedules are highly individually different; 7) the searching behaviour that leads to efficient location of flowers and routes between them. Our model constitutes a robust theoretical platform to generate novel hypotheses and refine our understanding about how small-brained insects develop a representation of space and use it to navigate in complex and dynamic environments. PMID:23505353

The dynamics of transmission and the dynamics of networks.

PubMed

Farine, Damien

2017-05-01

A toy example depicted here highlighting the results of a study in this issue of the Journal of Animal Ecology that investigates the impact of network dynamics on potential disease outbreaks. Infections (stars) that spread by contact only (left) reduce the predicted outbreak size compared to situations where individuals can become infected by moving through areas that previously contained infected individuals (right). This is potentially important in species where individuals, or in this case groups, have overlapping ranges (as depicted on the top right). Incorporating network dynamics that maintain information about the ordering of contacts (central blocks; including the ordering of spatial overlap as noted by the arrows that highlight the blue group arriving after the red group in top-right of the figure) is important for capturing how a disease might not have the opportunity to spread to all individuals. By contrast, a static or 'average' network (lower blocks) does not capture any of these dynamics. Interestingly, although static networks generally predict larger outbreak sizes, the authors find that in cases when transmission probability is low, this prediction can switch as a result of changes in the estimated intensity of contacts among individuals. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]. Springer, A., Kappeler, P.M. & Nunn, C.L. (2017) Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: Predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs. Journal of Animal Ecology, 86, 419-433. The spread of disease or information through networks can be affected by several factors. Whether and how these factors are accounted for can fundamentally change the predicted impact of a spreading epidemic. Springer, Kappeler & Nunn () investigate the role of different modes of transmission and network dynamics on the predicted size of a disease outbreak across several groups of Verreaux's sifakas, a group-living species of lemur. While some factors, such as seasonality, led to consistent differences in the structure of social networks, using dynamic vs. static representations of networks generated differences in the predicted outbreak size of an emergent disease. These findings highlight some of the challenges associated with studying disease dynamics in animal populations, and the importance of continuing efforts to develop the network tools needed to study disease spread. © 2017 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Chronnectome fingerprinting: Identifying individuals and predicting higher cognitive functions using dynamic brain connectivity patterns.

PubMed

Liu, Jin; Liao, Xuhong; Xia, Mingrui; He, Yong

2018-02-01

The human brain is a large, interacting dynamic network, and its architecture of coupling among brain regions varies across time (termed the "chronnectome"). However, very little is known about whether and how the dynamic properties of the chronnectome can characterize individual uniqueness, such as identifying individuals as a "fingerprint" of the brain. Here, we employed multiband resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data from the Human Connectome Project (N = 105) and a sliding time-window dynamic network analysis approach to systematically examine individual time-varying properties of the chronnectome. We revealed stable and remarkable individual variability in three dynamic characteristics of brain connectivity (i.e., strength, stability, and variability), which was mainly distributed in three higher order cognitive systems (i.e., default mode, dorsal attention, and fronto-parietal) and in two primary systems (i.e., visual and sensorimotor). Intriguingly, the spatial patterns of these dynamic characteristics of brain connectivity could successfully identify individuals with high accuracy and could further significantly predict individual higher cognitive performance (e.g., fluid intelligence and executive function), which was primarily contributed by the higher order cognitive systems. Together, our findings highlight that the chronnectome captures inherent functional dynamics of individual brain networks and provides implications for individualized characterization of health and disease. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Theory of activated glassy relaxation, mobility gradients, surface diffusion, and vitrification in free standing thin films

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mirigian, Stephen, E-mail: kschweiz@illinois.edu, E-mail: smirigian@gmail.com; Schweizer, Kenneth S., E-mail: kschweiz@illinois.edu, E-mail: smirigian@gmail.com

2015-12-28

We have constructed a quantitative, force level, statistical mechanical theory for how confinement in free standing thin films introduces a spatial mobility gradient of the alpha relaxation time as a function of temperature, film thickness, and location in the film. The crucial idea is that relaxation speeds up due to the reduction of both near-surface barriers associated with the loss of neighbors in the local cage and the spatial cutoff and dynamical softening near the vapor interface of the spatially longer range collective elasticity cost for large amplitude hopping. These two effects are fundamentally coupled. Quantitative predictions are made formore » how an apparent glass temperature depends on the film thickness and experimental probe technique, the emergence of a two-step decay and mobile layers in time domain measurements, signatures of confinement in frequency-domain dielectric loss experiments, the dependence of film-averaged relaxation times and dynamic fragility on temperature and film thickness, surface diffusion, and the relationship between kinetic experiments and pseudo-thermodynamic measurements such as ellipsometry.« less

Theory of activated glassy relaxation, mobility gradients, surface diffusion, and vitrification in free standing thin films.

PubMed

Mirigian, Stephen; Schweizer, Kenneth S

2015-12-28

We have constructed a quantitative, force level, statistical mechanical theory for how confinement in free standing thin films introduces a spatial mobility gradient of the alpha relaxation time as a function of temperature, film thickness, and location in the film. The crucial idea is that relaxation speeds up due to the reduction of both near-surface barriers associated with the loss of neighbors in the local cage and the spatial cutoff and dynamical softening near the vapor interface of the spatially longer range collective elasticity cost for large amplitude hopping. These two effects are fundamentally coupled. Quantitative predictions are made for how an apparent glass temperature depends on the film thickness and experimental probe technique, the emergence of a two-step decay and mobile layers in time domain measurements, signatures of confinement in frequency-domain dielectric loss experiments, the dependence of film-averaged relaxation times and dynamic fragility on temperature and film thickness, surface diffusion, and the relationship between kinetic experiments and pseudo-thermodynamic measurements such as ellipsometry.

Spatial-temporal consistency between gross primary productivity and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence of vegetation in China during 2007-2014.

PubMed

Ma, Jun; Xiao, Xiangming; Zhang, Yao; Doughty, Russell; Chen, Bangqian; Zhao, Bin

2018-10-15

Accurately estimating spatial-temporal patterns of gross primary production (GPP) is important for the global carbon cycle. Satellite-based light use efficiency (LUE) models are regarded as an efficient tool in simulating spatial-temporal dynamics of GPP. However, the accuracy assessment of GPP simulations from LUE models at both spatial and temporal scales remains a challenge. In this study, we simulated GPP of vegetation in China during 2007-2014 using a LUE model (Vegetation Photosynthesis Model, VPM) based on MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) images with 8-day temporal and 500-m spatial resolutions and NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) climate data. Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2) solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) data were used to compare with VPM simulated GPP (GPP VPM ) temporally and spatially using linear correlation analysis. Significant positive linear correlations exist between monthly GPP VPM and SIF data over a single year (2010) and multiple years (2007-2014) in most areas of China. GPP VPM is also significantly positive correlated with GOME-2 SIF (R 2  > 0.43) spatially for seasonal scales. However, poor consistency was detected between GPP VPM and SIF data at yearly scale. GPP dynamic trends have high spatial-temporal variation in China during 2007-2014. Temperature, leaf area index (LAI), and precipitation are the most important factors influence GPP VPM in the regions of East Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Loss Plateau, and Southwestern China, respectively. The results of this study indicate that GPP VPM is temporally and spatially in line with GOME-2 SIF data, and space-borne SIF data have great potential for evaluating LUE-based GPP models. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Learning by Rodent Grid Cells

PubMed Central

Cheung, Allen

2016-01-01

Mounting evidence shows mammalian brains are probabilistic computers, but the specific cells involved remain elusive. Parallel research suggests that grid cells of the mammalian hippocampal formation are fundamental to spatial cognition but their diverse response properties still defy explanation. No plausible model exists which explains stable grids in darkness for twenty minutes or longer, despite being one of the first results ever published on grid cells. Similarly, no current explanation can tie together grid fragmentation and grid rescaling, which show very different forms of flexibility in grid responses when the environment is varied. Other properties such as attractor dynamics and grid anisotropy seem to be at odds with one another unless additional properties are assumed such as a varying velocity gain. Modelling efforts have largely ignored the breadth of response patterns, while also failing to account for the disastrous effects of sensory noise during spatial learning and recall, especially in darkness. Here, published electrophysiological evidence from a range of experiments are reinterpreted using a novel probabilistic learning model, which shows that grid cell responses are accurately predicted by a probabilistic learning process. Diverse response properties of probabilistic grid cells are statistically indistinguishable from rat grid cells across key manipulations. A simple coherent set of probabilistic computations explains stable grid fields in darkness, partial grid rescaling in resized arenas, low-dimensional attractor grid cell dynamics, and grid fragmentation in hairpin mazes. The same computations also reconcile oscillatory dynamics at the single cell level with attractor dynamics at the cell ensemble level. Additionally, a clear functional role for boundary cells is proposed for spatial learning. These findings provide a parsimonious and unified explanation of grid cell function, and implicate grid cells as an accessible neuronal population readout of a set of probabilistic spatial computations. PMID:27792723

Toward a community ecology of landscapes: predicting multiple predator-prey interactions across geographic space.

PubMed

Schmitz, Oswald J; Miller, Jennifer R B; Trainor, Anne M; Abrahms, Briana

2017-09-01

Community ecology was traditionally an integrative science devoted to studying interactions between species and their abiotic environments in order to predict species' geographic distributions and abundances. Yet for philosophical and methodological reasons, it has become divided into two enterprises: one devoted to local experimentation on species interactions to predict community dynamics; the other devoted to statistical analyses of abiotic and biotic information to describe geographic distribution. Our goal here is to instigate thinking about ways to reconnect the two enterprises and thereby return to a tradition to do integrative science. We focus specifically on the community ecology of predators and prey, which is ripe for integration. This is because there is active, simultaneous interest in experimentally resolving the nature and strength of predator-prey interactions as well as explaining patterns across landscapes and seascapes. We begin by describing a conceptual theory rooted in classical analyses of non-spatial food web modules used to predict species interactions. We show how such modules can be extended to consideration of spatial context using the concept of habitat domain. Habitat domain describes the spatial extent of habitat space that predators and prey use while foraging, which differs from home range, the spatial extent used by an animal to meet all of its daily needs. This conceptual theory can be used to predict how different spatial relations of predators and prey could lead to different emergent multiple predator-prey interactions such as whether predator consumptive or non-consumptive effects should dominate, and whether intraguild predation, predator interference or predator complementarity are expected. We then review the literature on studies of large predator-prey interactions that make conclusions about the nature of multiple predator-prey interactions. This analysis reveals that while many studies provide sufficient information about predator or prey spatial locations, and thus meet necessary conditions of the habitat domain conceptual theory for drawing conclusions about the nature of the predator-prey interactions, several studies do not. We therefore elaborate how modern technology and statistical approaches for animal movement analysis could be used to test the conceptual theory, using experimental or quasi-experimental analyses at landscape scales. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Inter-annual variability of carbon fluxes in temperate forest ecosystems: effects of biotic and abiotic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Hufkens, K.; Munger, J. W.; Bohrer, G.; Brzostek, E. R.; Richardson, A. D.

2014-12-01

Carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems are influenced by both abiotic and biotic factors. Abiotic factors, such as variation in meteorological conditions, directly drive biophysical and biogeochemical processes; biotic factors, referring to the inherent properties of the ecosystem components, reflect the internal regulating effects including temporal dynamics and memory. The magnitude of the effect of abiotic and biotic factors on forest ecosystem carbon exchange has been suggested to vary at different time scales. In this study, we design and conduct a model-data fusion experiment to investigate the role and relative importance of the biotic and abiotic factors for inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of temperate deciduous forest ecosystems in the Northeastern US. A process-based model (FöBAAR) is parameterized at four eddy-covariance sites using all available flux and biometric measurements. We conducted a "transplant" modeling experiment, that is, cross- site and parameter simulations with different combinations of site meteorology and parameters. Using wavelet analysis and variance partitioning techniques, analysis of model predictions identifies both spatial variant and spatially invariant parameters. Variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP), with relative contributions varying from hourly to yearly time scales. The inter-annual variability of GPP and NEE is more regulated by meteorological forcing, but spatial variability in certain model parameters (biotic response) has more substantial effects on the inter-annual variability of ecosystem respiration (Reco) through the effects on carbon pools. Both the biotic and abiotic factors play significant roles in modulating the spatial and temporal variability in terrestrial carbon cycling in the region. Together, our study quantifies the relative importance of both, and calls for better understanding of them to better predict regional CO2 exchanges.

Characterization and predictability of basin scale SWE distributions using ASO snow depth and SWE retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bormann, K.; Hedrick, A. R.; Marks, D. G.; Painter, T. H.

2017-12-01

The spatial and temporal distribution of snow water resources (SWE) in the mountains has been examined extensively through the use of models, in-situ networks and remote sensing techniques. However, until the Airborne Snow Observatory (http://aso.jpl.nasa.gov), our understanding of SWE dynamics has been limited due to a lack of well-constrained spatial distributions of SWE in complex terrain, particularly at high elevations and at regional scales (100km+). ASO produces comprehensive snow depth measurements and well-constrained SWE products providing the opportunity to re-examine our current understanding of SWE distributions with a robust and rich data source. We collected spatially-distributed snow depth and SWE data from over 150 individual ASO acquisitions spanning seven basins in California during the five-year operational period of 2013 - 2017. For each of these acquisitions, we characterized the spatial distribution of snow depth and SWE and examined how these distributions changed with time during snowmelt. We compared these distribution patterns between each of the seven basins and finally, examined the predictability of the SWE distributions using statistical extrapolations through both space and time. We compare and contrast these observationally-based characteristics with those from a physically-based snow model to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the implementation of our understanding of SWE processes in the model environment. In practice, these results may be used to support or challenge our current understanding of mountain SWE dynamics and provide techniques for enhanced evaluation of high-resolution snow models that go beyond in-situ point comparisons. In application, this work may provide guidance on the potential of ASO to guide backfilling of sparse spaceborne measurements of snow depth and snow water equivalent.

Design of a dynamic sensor inspired by bat ears

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Rolf; Pannala, Mittu; Reddy, O. Praveen K.; Meymand, Sajjad Z.

2012-09-01

In bats, the outer ear shapes act as beamforming baffles that create a spatial sensitivity pattern for the reception of the biosonar signals. Whereas technical receivers for wave-based signals usually have rigid geometries, the outer ears of some bat species, such as horseshoe bats, can undergo non-rigid deformations as a result of muscular actuation. It is hypothesized that these deformations provide the animals with a mechanism to adapt their spatial hearing sensitivity on short, sub-second time scales. This biological approach could be of interest to engineering as an inspiration for the design of beamforming devices that combine flexibility with parsimonious implementation. To explore this possibility, a biomimetic dynamic baffle was designed based on a simple shape overall geometry based on an average bat ear. This shape was augmented with three different biomimetic local shape features, a ridge on its exposed surface as well as a flap and an incision along its rim. Dynamic non-rigid deformations of the shape were accomplished through a simple actuation mechanism based on linear actuation inserted at a single point. Despite its simplicity, the prototype device was able to reproduce the dynamic functional characteristics that have been predicted for its biological paragon in a qualitative fashion.

Quantifying the Dynamics of Field Cancerization in Tobacco-Related Head and Neck Cancer: A Multiscale Modeling Approach.

PubMed

Ryser, Marc D; Lee, Walter T; Ready, Neal E; Leder, Kevin Z; Foo, Jasmine

2016-12-15

High rates of local recurrence in tobacco-related head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) are commonly attributed to unresected fields of precancerous tissue. Because they are not easily detectable at the time of surgery without additional biopsies, there is a need for noninvasive methods to predict the extent and dynamics of these fields. Here, we developed a spatial stochastic model of tobacco-related HNSCC at the tissue level and calibrated the model using a Bayesian framework and population-level incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. Probabilistic model analyses were performed to predict the field geometry at time of diagnosis, and model predictions of age-specific recurrence risks were tested against outcome data from SEER. The calibrated models predicted a strong dependence of the local field size on age at diagnosis, with a doubling of the expected field diameter between ages at diagnosis of 50 and 90 years, respectively. Similarly, the probability of harboring multiple, clonally unrelated fields at the time of diagnosis was found to increase substantially with patient age. On the basis of these findings, we hypothesized a higher recurrence risk in older than in younger patients when treated by surgery alone; we successfully tested this hypothesis using age-stratified outcome data. Further clinical studies are needed to validate the model predictions in a patient-specific setting. This work highlights the importance of spatial structure in models of epithelial carcinogenesis and suggests that patient age at diagnosis may be a critical predictor of the size and multiplicity of precancerous lesions. Cancer Res; 76(24); 7078-88. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Quantifying the dynamics of field cancerization in tobacco-related head and neck cancer: a multi-scale modeling approach

PubMed Central

Ryser, Marc D.; Lee, Walter T.; Readyz, Neal E.; Leder, Kevin Z.; Foo, Jasmine

2017-01-01

High rates of local recurrence in tobacco-related head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) are commonly attributed to unresected fields of precancerous tissue. Since they are not easily detectable at the time of surgery without additional biopsies, there is a need for non-invasive methods to predict the extent and dynamics of these fields. Here we developed a spatial stochastic model of tobacco-related HNSCC at the tissue level and calibrated the model using a Bayesian framework and population-level incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. Probabilistic model analyses were performed to predict the field geometry at time of diagnosis, and model predictions of age-specific recurrence risks were tested against outcome data from SEER. The calibrated models predicted a strong dependence of the local field size on age at diagnosis, with a doubling of the expected field diameter between ages at diagnosis of 50 and 90 years, respectively. Similarly, the probability of harboring multiple, clonally unrelated fields at the time of diagnosis were found to increase substantially with patient age. Based on these findings, we hypothesized a higher recurrence risk in older compared to younger patients when treated by surgery alone; we successfully tested this hypothesis using age-stratified outcome data. Further clinical studies are needed to validate the model predictions in a patient-specific setting. This work highlights the importance of spatial structure in models of epithelial carcinogenesis, and suggests that patient age at diagnosis may be a critical predictor of the size and multiplicity of precancerous lesions. Major Findings Patient age at diagnosis was found to be a critical predictor of the size and multiplicity of precancerous lesions. This finding challenges the current one-size-fits-all approach to surgical excision margins. PMID:27913438

Structural relaxation in supercooled orthoterphenyl.

PubMed

Chong, S-H; Sciortino, F

2004-05-01

We report molecular-dynamics simulation results performed for a model of molecular liquid orthoterphenyl in supercooled states, which we then compare with both experimental data and mode-coupling-theory (MCT) predictions, aiming at a better understanding of structural relaxation in orthoterphenyl. We pay special attention to the wave number dependence of the collective dynamics. It is shown that the simulation results for the model share many features with experimental data for real system, and that MCT captures the simulation results at the semiquantitative level except for intermediate wave numbers connected to the overall size of the molecule. Theoretical results at the intermediate wave number region are found to be improved by taking into account the spatial correlation of the molecule's geometrical center. This supports the idea that unusual dynamical properties at the intermediate wave numbers, reported previously in simulation studies for the model and discernible in coherent neutron-scattering experimental data, are basically due to the coupling of the rotational motion to the geometrical-center dynamics. However, there still remain qualitative as well as quantitative discrepancies between theoretical prediction and corresponding simulation results at the intermediate wave numbers, which call for further theoretical investigation.

Towards Improving Sea Ice Predictabiity: Evaluating Climate Models Against Satellite Sea Ice Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.

2014-12-01

The last four decades have seen a remarkable decline in the spatial extent of the Arctic sea ice cover, presenting both challenges and opportunities to Arctic residents, government agencies and industry. After the record low extent in September 2007 effort has increased to improve seasonal, decadal-scale and longer-term predictions of the sea ice cover. Coupled global climate models (GCMs) consistently project that if greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, the eventual outcome will be a complete loss of the multiyear ice cover. However, confidence in these projections depends o HoHoweon the models ability to reproduce features of the present-day climate. Comparison between models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and observations of sea ice extent and thickness show that (1) historical trends from 85% of the model ensemble members remain smaller than observed, and (2) spatial patterns of sea ice thickness are poorly represented in most models. Part of the explanation lies with a failure of models to represent details of the mean atmospheric circulation pattern that governs the transport and spatial distribution of sea ice. These results raise concerns regarding the ability of CMIP5 models to realistically represent the processes driving the decline of Arctic sea ice and to project the timing of when a seasonally ice-free Arctic may be realized. On shorter time-scales, seasonal sea ice prediction has been challenged to predict the sea ice extent from Arctic conditions a few months to a year in advance. Efforts such as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) project, originally organized through the Study of Environmental Change (SEARCH) and now managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN) synthesize predictions of the September sea ice extent based on a variety of approaches, including heuristic, statistical and dynamical modeling. Analysis of SIO contributions reveals that when the September sea ice extent is near the long-term trend, contributions tend to be accurate. Years when the observed extent departs from the trend have proven harder to predict. Predictability skill does not appear to be more accurate for dynamical models over statistical ones, nor is there a measurable improvement in skill as the summer progresses.

Rubella metapopulation dynamics and importance of spatial coupling to the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in Peru

PubMed Central

Metcalf, C. J. E.; Munayco, C. V.; Chowell, G.; Grenfell, B. T.; Bjørnstad, O. N.

2011-01-01

Rubella is generally a mild childhood disease, but infection during early pregnancy may cause spontaneous abortion or congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), which may entail a variety of birth defects. Consequently, understanding the age-structured dynamics of this infection has considerable public health value. Vaccination short of the threshold for local elimination of transmission will increase the average age of infection. Accordingly, the classic concern for this infection is the potential for vaccination to increase incidence in individuals of childbearing age. A neglected aspect of rubella dynamics is how age incidence patterns may be moulded by the spatial dynamics inherent to epidemic metapopulations. Here, we use a uniquely detailed dataset from Peru to explore the implications of this for the burden of CRS. Our results show that the risk of CRS may be particularly severe in small remote regions, a prediction at odds with expectations in the endemic situation, and with implications for the outcome of vaccination. This outcome results directly from the metapopulation context: specifically, extinction–re-colonization dynamics are crucial because they allow for significant leakage of susceptible individuals into the older age classes during inter-epidemic periods with the potential to increase CRS risk by as much as fivefold. PMID:20659931

High latitude changes in ice dynamics and their impact on polar marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Moline, Mark A; Karnovsky, Nina J; Brown, Zachary; Divoky, George J; Frazer, Thomas K; Jacoby, Charles A; Torres, Joseph J; Fraser, William R

2008-01-01

Polar regions have experienced significant warming in recent decades. Warming has been most pronounced across the Arctic Ocean Basin and along the Antarctic Peninsula, with significant decreases in the extent and seasonal duration of sea ice. Rapid retreat of glaciers and disintegration of ice sheets have also been documented. The rate of warming is increasing and is predicted to continue well into the current century, with continued impacts on ice dynamics. Climate-mediated changes in ice dynamics are a concern as ice serves as primary habitat for marine organisms central to the food webs of these regions. Changes in the timing and extent of sea ice impose temporal asynchronies and spatial separations between energy requirements and food availability for many higher trophic levels. These mismatches lead to decreased reproductive success, lower abundances, and changes in distribution. In addition to these direct impacts of ice loss, climate-induced changes also facilitate indirect effects through changes in hydrography, which include introduction of species from lower latitudes and altered assemblages of primary producers. Here, we review recent changes and trends in ice dynamics and the responses of marine ecosystems. Specifically, we provide examples of ice-dependent organisms and associated species from the Arctic and Antarctic to illustrate the impacts of the temporal and spatial changes in ice dynamics.

High-Efficiency High-Resolution Global Model Developments at the NASA Goddard Data Assimilation Office

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shian-Jiann; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has been developing a new generation of ultra-high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that is suitable for 4-D data assimilation, numerical weather predictions, and climate simulations. These three applications have conflicting requirements. For 4-D data assimilation and weather predictions, it is highly desirable to run the model at the highest possible spatial resolution (e.g., 55 km or finer) so as to be able to resolve and predict socially and economically important weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and severe winter storms. For climate change applications, the model simulations need to be carried out for decades, if not centuries. To reduce uncertainty in climate change assessments, the next generation model would also need to be run at a fine enough spatial resolution that can at least marginally simulate the effects of intense tropical cyclones. Scientific problems (e.g., parameterization of subgrid scale moist processes) aside, all three areas of application require the model's computational performance to be dramatically improved as compared to the previous generation. In this talk, I will present the current and future developments of the "finite-volume dynamical core" at the Data Assimilation Office. This dynamical core applies modem monotonicity preserving algorithms and is genuinely conservative by construction, not by an ad hoc fixer. The "discretization" of the conservation laws is purely local, which is clearly advantageous for resolving sharp gradient flow features. In addition, the local nature of the finite-volume discretization also has a significant advantage on distributed memory parallel computers. Together with a unique vertically Lagrangian control volume discretization that essentially reduces the dimension of the computational problem from three to two, the finite-volume dynamical core is very efficient, particularly at high resolutions. I will also present the computational design of the dynamical core using a hybrid distributed-shared memory programming paradigm that is portable to virtually any of today's high-end parallel super-computing clusters.

High-Efficiency High-Resolution Global Model Developments at the NASA Goddard Data Assimilation Office

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shian-Jiann; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has been developing a new generation of ultra-high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that is suitable for 4-D data assimilation, numerical weather predictions, and climate simulations. These three applications have conflicting requirements. For 4-D data assimilation and weather predictions, it is highly desirable to run the model at the highest possible spatial resolution (e.g., 55 kin or finer) so as to be able to resolve and predict socially and economically important weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and severe winter storms. For climate change applications, the model simulations need to be carried out for decades, if not centuries. To reduce uncertainty in climate change assessments, the next generation model would also need to be run at a fine enough spatial resolution that can at least marginally simulate the effects of intense tropical cyclones. Scientific problems (e.g., parameterization of subgrid scale moist processes) aside, all three areas of application require the model's computational performance to be dramatically improved as compared to the previous generation. In this talk, I will present the current and future developments of the "finite-volume dynamical core" at the Data Assimilation Office. This dynamical core applies modem monotonicity preserving algorithms and is genuinely conservative by construction, not by an ad hoc fixer. The "discretization" of the conservation laws is purely local, which is clearly advantageous for resolving sharp gradient flow features. In addition, the local nature of the finite-volume discretization also has a significant advantage on distributed memory parallel computers. Together with a unique vertically Lagrangian control volume discretization that essentially reduces the dimension of the computational problem from three to two, the finite-volume dynamical core is very efficient, particularly at high resolutions. I will also present the computational design of the dynamical core using a hybrid distributed- shared memory programming paradigm that is portable to virtually any of today's high-end parallel super-computing clusters.

Microscopic prediction of speech intelligibility in spatially distributed speech-shaped noise for normal-hearing listeners.

PubMed

Geravanchizadeh, Masoud; Fallah, Ali

2015-12-01

A binaural and psychoacoustically motivated intelligibility model, based on a well-known monaural microscopic model is proposed. This model simulates a phoneme recognition task in the presence of spatially distributed speech-shaped noise in anechoic scenarios. In the proposed model, binaural advantage effects are considered by generating a feature vector for a dynamic-time-warping speech recognizer. This vector consists of three subvectors incorporating two monaural subvectors to model the better-ear hearing, and a binaural subvector to simulate the binaural unmasking effect. The binaural unit of the model is based on equalization-cancellation theory. This model operates blindly, which means separate recordings of speech and noise are not required for the predictions. Speech intelligibility tests were conducted with 12 normal hearing listeners by collecting speech reception thresholds (SRTs) in the presence of single and multiple sources of speech-shaped noise. The comparison of the model predictions with the measured binaural SRTs, and with the predictions of a macroscopic binaural model called extended equalization-cancellation, shows that this approach predicts the intelligibility in anechoic scenarios with good precision. The square of the correlation coefficient (r(2)) and the mean-absolute error between the model predictions and the measurements are 0.98 and 0.62 dB, respectively.

Preliminary analysis of dynamic stall effects on a 91-meter wind turbine rotor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert E.

1995-01-01

Analytical investigation of dynamic stall on HAWT (horizontal-axis wind turbines) rotor loads was conducted. Dynamic stall was modeled using the Gormont approach on the MOD-2 rotor, treating the blade as a rigid body teetering about a fixed axis. Blade flapwise bending moments at station 370 were determined with and without dynamic stall for spatial variations in local wind speed due to wind shear and yaw. The predicted mean flapwise bending moments were found to be in good agreement with test results. Results obtained with and without dynamic stall showed no significant difference for the mean flapwise bending moment. The cyclic bending moments calculated with and without dynamic stall effects were substantially the same. None of the calculated cyclic loads reached the level of the cyclic loads measured on the MOD-2 using the Boeing five-minute-average technique.

Principles for the dynamic maintenance of cortical polarity

PubMed Central

Marco, Eugenio; Wedlich-Soldner, Roland; Li, Rong; Altschuler, Steven J.; Wu, Lani F.

2007-01-01

Summary Diverse cell types require the ability to dynamically maintain polarized membrane protein distributions through balancing transport and diffusion. However, design principles underlying dynamically maintained cortical polarity are not well understood. Here we constructed a mathematical model for characterizing the morphology of dynamically polarized protein distributions. We developed analytical approaches for measuring all model parameters from single-cell experiments. We applied our methods to a well-characterized system for studying polarized membrane proteins: budding yeast cells expressing activated Cdc42. We found that balanced diffusion and colocalized transport to and from the plasma membrane were sufficient for accurately describing polarization morphologies. Surprisingly, the model predicts that polarized regions are defined with a precision that is nearly optimal for measured transport rates, and that polarity can be dynamically stabilized through positive feedback with directed transport. Our approach provides a step towards understanding how biological systems shape spatially precise, unambiguous cortical polarity domains using dynamic processes. PMID:17448998

Modeling human perception of orientation in altered gravity

PubMed Central

Clark, Torin K.; Newman, Michael C.; Oman, Charles M.; Merfeld, Daniel M.; Young, Laurence R.

2015-01-01

Altered gravity environments, such as those experienced by astronauts, impact spatial orientation perception, and can lead to spatial disorientation and sensorimotor impairment. To more fully understand and quantify the impact of altered gravity on orientation perception, several mathematical models have been proposed. The utricular shear, tangent, and the idiotropic vector models aim to predict static perception of tilt in hyper-gravity. Predictions from these prior models are compared to the available data, but are found to systematically err from the perceptions experimentally observed. Alternatively, we propose a modified utricular shear model for static tilt perception in hyper-gravity. Previous dynamic models of vestibular function and orientation perception are limited to 1 G. Specifically, they fail to predict the characteristic overestimation of roll tilt observed in hyper-gravity environments. To address this, we have proposed a modification to a previous observer-type canal-otolith interaction model based upon the hypothesis that the central nervous system (CNS) treats otolith stimulation in the utricular plane differently than stimulation out of the utricular plane. Here we evaluate our modified utricular shear and modified observer models in four altered gravity motion paradigms: (a) static roll tilt in hyper-gravity, (b) static pitch tilt in hyper-gravity, (c) static roll tilt in hypo-gravity, and (d) static pitch tilt in hypo-gravity. The modified models match available data in each of the conditions considered. Our static modified utricular shear model and dynamic modified observer model may be used to help quantitatively predict astronaut perception of orientation in altered gravity environments. PMID:25999822

Revealing Hidden Structural Order Controlling Both Fast and Slow Glassy Dynamics in Supercooled Liquids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Hua; Tanaka, Hajime

2018-01-01

The dynamics of a supercooled liquid near the glass transition is characterized by two-step relaxation, fast β and slow α relaxations. Because of the apparently disordered nature of glassy structures, there have been long debates over whether the origin of drastic slowing-down of the α relaxation accompanied by heterogeneous dynamics is thermodynamic or dynamic. Furthermore, it has been elusive whether there is any deep connection between fast β and slow α modes. To settle these issues, here we introduce a set of new structural order parameters characterizing sterically favored structures with high local packing capability, and then access structure-dynamics correlation by a novel nonlocal approach. We find that the particle mobility is under control of the static order parameter field. The fast β process is controlled by the instantaneous order parameter field locally, resulting in short-time particle-scale dynamics. Then the mobility field progressively develops with time t , following the initial order parameter field from disorder to more ordered regions. As is well known, the heterogeneity in the mobility field (dynamic heterogeneity) is maximized with a characteristic length ξ4, when t reaches the relaxation time τα. We discover that this mobility pattern can be predicted solely by a spatial coarse graining of the initial order parameter field at t =0 over a length ξ without any dynamical information. Furthermore, we find a relation ξ ˜ξ4, indicating that the static length ξ grows coherently with the dynamic one ξ4 upon cooling. This further suggests an intrinsic link between τα and ξ : the growth of the static length ξ is the origin of dynamical slowing-down. These we confirm for the first time in binary glass formers both in two and three spatial dimensions. Thus, a static structure has two intrinsic characteristic lengths, particle size and ξ , which control dynamics in local and nonlocal manners, resulting in the emergence of the two key relaxation modes, fast β and slow α processes, respectively. Because the two processes share a common structural origin, we can even predict a dynamic propensity pattern at long timescale from the fast β pattern. The presence of such intrinsic structure-dynamics correlation strongly indicates a thermodynamic nature of glass transition.

Stochastic modelling of infectious diseases for heterogeneous populations.

PubMed

Ming, Rui-Xing; Liu, Ji-Ming; W Cheung, William K; Wan, Xiang

2016-12-22

Infectious diseases such as SARS and H1N1 can significantly impact people's lives and cause severe social and economic damages. Recent outbreaks have stressed the urgency of effective research on the dynamics of infectious disease spread. However, it is difficult to predict when and where outbreaks may emerge and how infectious diseases spread because many factors affect their transmission, and some of them may be unknown. One feasible means to promptly detect an outbreak and track the progress of disease spread is to implement surveillance systems in regional or national health and medical centres. The accumulated surveillance data, including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information can provide valuable information that can be exploited to better understand and model the dynamics of infectious disease spread. The aim of this work is to develop and empirically evaluate a stochastic model that allows the investigation of transmission patterns of infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. We test the proposed model on simulation data and apply it to the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. In the simulation experiment, our model achieves high accuracy in parameter estimation (less than 10.0 % mean absolute percentage error). In terms of the forward prediction of case incidence, the mean absolute percentage errors are 17.3 % for the simulation experiment and 20.0 % for the experiment on the real surveillance data. We propose a stochastic model to study the dynamics of infectious disease spread in heterogeneous populations from temporal-spatial surveillance data. The proposed model is evaluated using both simulated data and the real data from the 2009 H1N1 epidemic in Hong Kong and achieves acceptable prediction accuracy. We believe that our model can provide valuable insights for public health authorities to predict the effect of disease spread and analyse its underlying factors and to guide new control efforts.

What can numerical simulations say about Jupiter’s deep, long-lived anticyclones?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Kwing L.

2017-10-01

If Jupiter’s long-lived anticyclones, GRS being the most prominent example, are indeed deep as indicated, the study of their dynamics would be much more difficult than if they were shallow. A shallow phenomenon limited to the troposphere can be modeled by general circulation models like those used in weather prediction for Earth’s atmosphere, as the layer overall is convectively stable (hydrostatic approximation can be applied) and the time scales (advection and radiation) are relatively short. If the dynamics involve the deep convective envelop below, the time scales for thermal relaxation and spin-up would be many orders of magnitudes longer. At the same time, the requirements for handling stratification, turbulence, compressibility, fast rotation, spatial resolution, and numerical stability conditions are not forgiving. Currently, numerical studies of long-lived vortices generated in convection zone are limited to ‘numerical experiments’ having internal energy fluxes many orders of magnitudes greater than that of Jupiter (for faster thermal and dynamical relaxation). Though these experiments cannot predict quantitative values for direct observational comparison, their information on the spatial distributions and connections among velocity, temperature, pressure etc. can tell a lot about what a deep-seated model can predict or describe. We are going to present the results of our latest fully compressible, large-eddy-simulation model for generation of long-lived anticyclones in deep convection zone. The high turbulence and complex internal structures of the vortices can naturally be explained. One prediction for observation is: While fluctuations of temperature and vertical velocity dissipate relative fast with height in the troposphere (stable region), the horizontal velocities (vortical motions) drop much slower; they hardly decrease by a factor of two in four pressure scale heights in the overshoot region. Acknowledgement: This research is supported by FDCT of Macau 039/2013/A2 and 080/2015/A3.

Nanoscale Imaging of Light-Matter Coupling Inside Metal-Coated Cavities with a Pulsed Electron Beam.

PubMed

Moerland, Robert J; Weppelman, I Gerward C; Scotuzzi, Marijke; Hoogenboom, Jacob P

2018-05-02

Many applications in (quantum) nanophotonics rely on controlling light-matter interaction through strong, nanoscale modification of the local density of states (LDOS). All-optical techniques probing emission dynamics in active media are commonly used to measure the LDOS and benchmark experimental performance against theoretical predictions. However, metal coatings needed to obtain strong LDOS modifications in, for instance, nanocavities, are incompatible with all-optical characterization. So far, no reliable method exists to validate theoretical predictions. Here, we use subnanosecond pulses of focused electrons to penetrate the metal and excite a buried active medium at precisely defined locations inside subwavelength resonant nanocavities. We reveal the spatial layout of the spontaneous-emission decay dynamics inside the cavities with deep-subwavelength detail, directly mapping the LDOS. We show that emission enhancement converts to inhibition despite an increased number of modes, emphasizing the critical role of optimal emitter location. Our approach yields fundamental insight in dynamics at deep-subwavelength scales for a wide range of nano-optical systems.

Creation of diffraction-limited non-Airy multifocal arrays using a spatially shifted vortex beam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Han; Gu, Min

2013-02-01

Diffraction-limited non-Airy multifocal arrays are created by focusing a phase-modulated vortex beam through a high numerical-aperture objective. The modulated phase at the back aperture of the objective resulting from the superposition of two concentric phase-modulated vortex beams allows for the generation of a multifocal array of cylindrically polarized non-Airy patterns. Furthermore, we shift the spatial positions of the phase vortices to manipulate the intensity distribution at each focal spot, leading to the creation of a multifocal array of split-ring patterns. Our method is experimentally validated by generating the predicted phase modulation through a spatial light modulator. Consequently, the spatially shifted circularly polarized vortex beam adopted in a dynamic laser direct writing system facilitates the fabrication of a split-ring microstructure array in a polymer material by a single exposure of a femtosecond laser beam.

Intermittency, nonlinear dynamics and dissipation in the solar wind and astrophysical plasmas

PubMed Central

Matthaeus, W. H.; Wan, Minping; Servidio, S.; Greco, A.; Osman, K. T.; Oughton, S.; Dmitruk, P.

2015-01-01

An overview is given of important properties of spatial and temporal intermittency, including evidence of its appearance in fluids, magnetofluids and plasmas, and its implications for understanding of heliospheric plasmas. Spatial intermittency is generally associated with formation of sharp gradients and coherent structures. The basic physics of structure generation is ideal, but when dissipation is present it is usually concentrated in regions of strong gradients. This essential feature of spatial intermittency in fluids has been shown recently to carry over to the realm of kinetic plasma, where the dissipation function is not known from first principles. Spatial structures produced in intermittent plasma influence dissipation, heating, and transport and acceleration of charged particles. Temporal intermittency can give rise to very long time correlations or a delayed approach to steady-state conditions, and has been associated with inverse cascade or quasi-inverse cascade systems, with possible implications for heliospheric prediction. PMID:25848085

The Use of Convolutional Neural Network in Relating Precipitation to Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, B.; Hsu, K. L.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sorooshian, S.

2017-12-01

Precipitation prediction in dynamical weather and climate models depends on 1) the predictability of pressure or geopotential height for the forecasting period and 2) the successive work of interpreting the pressure field in terms of precipitation events. The later task is represented as parameterization schemes in numerical models, where detailed computing inevitably blurs the hidden cause-and-effect relationship in precipitation generation. The "big data" provided by numerical simulation, reanalysis and observation networks requires better causation analysis for people to digest and realize their use. While classic synoptical analysis methods are very-often insufficient for spatially distributed high dimensional data, a Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) is developed here to directly relate precipitation with circulation. Case study carried over west coast United States during boreal winter showed that CNN can locate and capture key pressure zones of different structures to project precipitation spatial distribution with high accuracy across hourly to monthly scales. This direct connection between atmospheric circulation and precipitation offers a probe for attributing precipitation to the coverage, location, intensity and spatial structure of characteristic pressure zones, which can be used for model diagnosis and improvement.

Remote-sensing supported monitoring of global biodiversity change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jetz, W.; Tuanmu, M. N.; W, A.; Melton, F. S.; Parmentier, B.; Amatulli, G.; Guzman, A.

2016-12-01

Remote sensing combined with biodiversity observation offers an unrivalled tool for understanding and predicting species distributions and their changes at the planetary scale. I will illustrate recently developed high-resolution remote-sensing based layers targeted for spatiotemporal biodiversity modeling, addressing climate, environment, topography, and habitat heterogeneity. In particular, I will illustrate the development and use of global MODIS-derived environmental layers for biodiversity assessment and change monitoring. Remote-sensing based capture of these putative predictors of biodiversity dynamics provides more a reliable signal than spatially interpolated layers and avoids inflated spatial autocorrelation. The layers result in more accurate models of species occurrence and are more readily able to address the scale of processes underpinning species distributions, e.g. when combined with emerging hierarchical, cross-scale models. I illustrate the multiple ways in which this type of information, based on continuously collected data, supports the prediction of not just spatial but also temporal variation in biodiversity. Using implementations in the Map of Life infrastructure I will showcase new indicators of species distribution and change that demonstrate these new opportunities.

Post-Fire Spatial Patterns of Soil Nitrogen Mineralization and Microbial Abundance

PubMed Central

Smithwick, Erica A. H.; Naithani, Kusum J.; Balser, Teri C.; Romme, William H.; Turner, Monica G.

2012-01-01

Stand-replacing fires influence soil nitrogen availability and microbial community composition, which may in turn mediate post-fire successional dynamics and nutrient cycling. However, fires create patchiness at both local and landscape scales and do not result in consistent patterns of ecological dynamics. The objectives of this study were to (1) quantify the spatial structure of microbial communities in forest stands recently affected by stand-replacing fire and (2) determine whether microbial variables aid predictions of in situ net nitrogen mineralization rates in recently burned stands. The study was conducted in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) and Engelmann spruce/subalpine fir (Picea engelmannii/Abies lasiocarpa) forest stands that burned during summer 2000 in Greater Yellowstone (Wyoming, USA). Using a fully probabilistic spatial process model and Bayesian kriging, the spatial structure of microbial lipid abundance and fungi-to-bacteria ratios were found to be spatially structured within plots two years following fire (for most plots, autocorrelation range varied from 1.5 to 10.5 m). Congruence of spatial patterns among microbial variables, in situ net N mineralization, and cover variables was evident. Stepwise regression resulted in significant models of in situ net N mineralization and included variables describing fungal and bacterial abundance, although explained variance was low (R2<0.29). Unraveling complex spatial patterns of nutrient cycling and the biotic factors that regulate it remains challenging but is critical for explaining post-fire ecosystem function, especially in Greater Yellowstone, which is projected to experience increased fire frequencies by mid 21st Century. PMID:23226324

Spatio-temporal dynamics of ocean conditions and forage taxa reveal regional structuring of seabird–prey relationships.

PubMed

Santora, Jarrod A; Schroeder, Isaac D; Field, John C; Wells, Brian K; Sydeman, William J

Studies of predator–prey demographic responses and the physical drivers of such relationships are rare, yet essential for predicting future changes in the structure and dynamics of marine ecosystems. Here, we hypothesize that predator–prey relationships vary spatially in association with underlying physical ocean conditions, leading to observable changes in demographic rates, such as reproduction. To test this hypothesis, we quantified spatio-temporal variability in hydrographic conditions, krill, and forage fish to model predator (seabird) demographic responses over 18 years (1990–2007). We used principal component analysis and spatial correlation maps to assess coherence among ocean conditions, krill, and forage fish, and generalized additive models to quantify interannual variability in seabird breeding success relative to prey abundance. The first principal component of four hydrographic measurements yielded an index that partitioned “warm/weak upwelling” and “cool/strong upwelling” years. Partitioning of krill and forage fish time series among shelf and oceanic regions yielded spatially explicit indicators of prey availability. Krill abundance within the oceanic region was remarkably consistent between years, whereas krill over the shelf showed marked interannual fluctuations in relation to ocean conditions. Anchovy abundance varied on the shelf, and was greater in years of strong stratification, weak upwelling and warmer temperatures. Spatio-temporal variability of juvenile forage fish co-varied strongly with each other and with krill, but was weakly correlated with hydrographic conditions. Demographic responses between seabirds and prey availability revealed spatially variable associations indicative of the dynamic nature of “predator–habitat” relationships. Quantification of spatially explicit demographic responses, and their variability through time, demonstrate the possibility of delineating specific critical areas where the implementation of protective measures could maintain functions and productivity of central place foraging predators.

Estimation of Spatial Dynamic Nonparametric Durbin Models with Fixed Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Qian, Minghui; Hu, Ridong; Chen, Jianwei

2016-01-01

Spatial panel data models have been widely studied and applied in both scientific and social science disciplines, especially in the analysis of spatial influence. In this paper, we consider the spatial dynamic nonparametric Durbin model (SDNDM) with fixed effects, which takes the nonlinear factors into account base on the spatial dynamic panel…

Using High-Resolution Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth To Estimate Daily PM2.5 Geographical Distribution in Mexico City.

PubMed

Just, Allan C; Wright, Robert O; Schwartz, Joel; Coull, Brent A; Baccarelli, Andrea A; Tellez-Rojo, Martha María; Moody, Emily; Wang, Yujie; Lyapustin, Alexei; Kloog, Itai

2015-07-21

Recent advances in estimating fine particle (PM2.5) ambient concentrations use daily satellite measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) for spatially and temporally resolved exposure estimates. Mexico City is a dense megacity that differs from other previously modeled regions in several ways: it has bright land surfaces, a distinctive climatological cycle, and an elevated semi-enclosed air basin with a unique planetary boundary layer dynamic. We extend our previous satellite methodology to the Mexico City area, a region with higher PM2.5 than most U.S. and European urban areas. Using a novel 1 km resolution AOD product from the MODIS instrument, we constructed daily predictions across the greater Mexico City area for 2004-2014. We calibrated the association of AOD to PM2.5 daily using municipal ground monitors, land use, and meteorological features. Predictions used spatial and temporal smoothing to estimate AOD when satellite data were missing. Our model performed well, resulting in an out-of-sample cross-validation R(2) of 0.724. Cross-validated root-mean-squared prediction error (RMSPE) of the model was 5.55 μg/m(3). This novel model reconstructs long- and short-term spatially resolved exposure to PM2.5 for epidemiological studies in Mexico City.

Using high-resolution satellite aerosol optical depth to estimate daily PM2.5 geographical distribution in Mexico City

PubMed Central

Just, Allan C.; Wright, Robert O.; Schwartz, Joel; Coull, Brent A.; Baccarelli, Andrea A.; Tellez-Rojo, Martha María; Moody, Emily; Wang, Yujie; Lyapustin, Alexei; Kloog, Itai

2015-01-01

Recent advances in estimating fine particle (PM2.5) ambient concentrations use daily satellite measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) for spatially and temporally resolved exposure estimates. Mexico City is a dense megacity that differs from other previously modeled regions in several ways: it has bright land surfaces, a distinctive climatological cycle, and an elevated semi-enclosed air basin with a unique planetary boundary layer dynamic. We extend our previous satellite methodology to the Mexico City area, a region with higher PM2.5 than most US and European urban areas. Using a novel 1 km resolution AOD product from the MODIS instrument, we constructed daily predictions across the greater Mexico City area for 2004–2014. We calibrated the association of AOD to PM2.5 daily using municipal ground monitors, land use, and meteorological features. Predictions used spatial and temporal smoothing to estimate AOD when satellite data were missing. Our model performed well, resulting in an out-of-sample cross validation R2 of 0.724. Cross-validated root mean squared prediction error (RMSPE) of the model was 5.55 μg/m3. This novel model reconstructs long- and short-term spatially resolved exposure to PM2.5 for epidemiological studies in Mexico City. PMID:26061488

Spatial Modeling of Iron Transformations Within Artificial Soil Aggregates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kausch, M.; Meile, C.; Pallud, C.

2008-12-01

Structured soils exhibit significant variations in transport characteristics at the aggregate scale. Preferential flow occurs through macropores while predominantly diffusive exchange takes place in intra-aggregate micropores. Such environments characterized by mass transfer limitations are conducive to the formation of small-scale chemical gradients and promote strong spatial variation in processes controlling the fate of redox-sensitive elements such as Fe. In this study, we present a reactive transport model used to spatially resolve iron bioreductive processes occurring within a spherical aggregate at the interface between advective and diffusive domains. The model is derived from current conceptual models of iron(hydr)oxide (HFO) transformations and constrained by literature and experimental data. Data were obtained from flow-through experiments on artificial soil aggregates inoculated with Shewanella putrefaciens strain CN32, and include the temporal evolution of the bulk solution composition, as well as spatial information on the final solid phase distribution within aggregates. With all iron initially in the form of ferrihydrite, spatially heterogeneous formation of goethite/lepidocrocite, magnetite and siderite was observed during the course of the experiments. These transformations were reproduced by the model, which ascribes a central role to divalent iron as a driver of HFO transformations and master variable in the rate laws of the considered reaction network. The predicted dissolved iron breakthrough curves also match the experimental ones closely. Thus, the computed chemical concentration fields help identify factors governing the observed trends in the solid phase distribution patterns inside the aggregate. Building on a mechanistic description of transformation reactions, fluid flow and solute transport, the model was able to describe the observations and hence illustrates the importance of small-scale gradients and dynamics of bioreductive processes for assessing bulk iron cycling. As HFOs are ubiquitous in soils, such process-level understanding of aggregate-scale iron dynamics has broad implications for the prediction of the subsurface fate of nutrients and contaminants that interact strongly with HFO surfaces.

Do abundance distributions and species aggregation correctly predict macroecological biodiversity patterns in tropical forests?

PubMed Central

Wiegand, Thorsten; Lehmann, Sebastian; Huth, Andreas; Fortin, Marie‐Josée

2016-01-01

Abstract Aim It has been recently suggested that different ‘unified theories of biodiversity and biogeography’ can be characterized by three common ‘minimal sufficient rules’: (1) species abundance distributions follow a hollow curve, (2) species show intraspecific aggregation, and (3) species are independently placed with respect to other species. Here, we translate these qualitative rules into a quantitative framework and assess if these minimal rules are indeed sufficient to predict multiple macroecological biodiversity patterns simultaneously. Location Tropical forest plots in Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and in Sinharaja, Sri Lanka. Methods We assess the predictive power of the three rules using dynamic and spatial simulation models in combination with census data from the two forest plots. We use two different versions of the model: (1) a neutral model and (2) an extended model that allowed for species differences in dispersal distances. In a first step we derive model parameterizations that correctly represent the three minimal rules (i.e. the model quantitatively matches the observed species abundance distribution and the distribution of intraspecific aggregation). In a second step we applied the parameterized models to predict four additional spatial biodiversity patterns. Results Species‐specific dispersal was needed to quantitatively fulfil the three minimal rules. The model with species‐specific dispersal correctly predicted the species–area relationship, but failed to predict the distance decay, the relationship between species abundances and aggregations, and the distribution of a spatial co‐occurrence index of all abundant species pairs. These results were consistent over the two forest plots. Main conclusions The three ‘minimal sufficient’ rules only provide an incomplete approximation of the stochastic spatial geometry of biodiversity in tropical forests. The assumption of independent interspecific placements is most likely violated in many forests due to shared or distinct habitat preferences. Furthermore, our results highlight missing knowledge about the relationship between species abundances and their aggregation. PMID:27667967

Predicting neutron damage using TEM with in situ ion irradiation and computer modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirk, Marquis A.; Li, Meimei; Xu, Donghua; Wirth, Brian D.

2018-01-01

We have constructed a computer model of irradiation defect production closely coordinated with TEM and in situ ion irradiation of Molybdenum at 80 °C over a range of dose, dose rate and foil thickness. We have reexamined our previous ion irradiation data to assign appropriate error and uncertainty based on more recent work. The spatially dependent cascade cluster dynamics model is updated with recent Molecular Dynamics results for cascades in Mo. After a careful assignment of both ion and neutron irradiation dose values in dpa, TEM data are compared for both ion and neutron irradiated Mo from the same source material. Using the computer model of defect formation and evolution based on the in situ ion irradiation of thin foils, the defect microstructure, consisting of densities and sizes of dislocation loops, is predicted for neutron irradiation of bulk material at 80 °C and compared with experiment. Reasonable agreement between model prediction and experimental data demonstrates a promising direction in understanding and predicting neutron damage using a closely coordinated program of in situ ion irradiation experiment and computer simulation.

Spatio-temporal propagation of cascading overload failures in spatially embedded networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jichang; Li, Daqing; Sanhedrai, Hillel; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

2016-01-01

Different from the direct contact in epidemics spread, overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies. Many studies focused on the critical conditions and catastrophic consequences of cascading failures. However, to understand the network vulnerability and mitigate the cascading overload failures, the knowledge of how the failures propagate in time and space is essential but still missing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation behaviour of cascading overload failures analytically and numerically on spatially embedded networks. The cascading overload failures are found to spread radially from the centre of the initial failure with an approximately constant velocity. The propagation velocity decreases with increasing tolerance, and can be well predicted by our theoretical framework with one single correction for all the tolerance values. This propagation velocity is found similar in various model networks and real network structures. Our findings may help to predict the dynamics of cascading overload failures in realistic systems.

Spatio-temporal propagation of cascading overload failures in spatially embedded networks

PubMed Central

Zhao, Jichang; Li, Daqing; Sanhedrai, Hillel; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

2016-01-01

Different from the direct contact in epidemics spread, overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies. Many studies focused on the critical conditions and catastrophic consequences of cascading failures. However, to understand the network vulnerability and mitigate the cascading overload failures, the knowledge of how the failures propagate in time and space is essential but still missing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation behaviour of cascading overload failures analytically and numerically on spatially embedded networks. The cascading overload failures are found to spread radially from the centre of the initial failure with an approximately constant velocity. The propagation velocity decreases with increasing tolerance, and can be well predicted by our theoretical framework with one single correction for all the tolerance values. This propagation velocity is found similar in various model networks and real network structures. Our findings may help to predict the dynamics of cascading overload failures in realistic systems. PMID:26754065

A 2D Daubechies finite wavelet domain method for transient wave response analysis in shear deformable laminated composite plates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastos, C. V.; Theodosiou, T. C.; Rekatsinas, C. S.; Saravanos, D. A.

2018-03-01

An efficient numerical method is developed for the simulation of dynamic response and the prediction of the wave propagation in composite plate structures. The method is termed finite wavelet domain method and takes advantage of the outstanding properties of compactly supported 2D Daubechies wavelet scaling functions for the spatial interpolation of displacements in a finite domain of a plate structure. The development of the 2D wavelet element, based on the first order shear deformation laminated plate theory is described and equivalent stiffness, mass matrices and force vectors are calculated and synthesized in the wavelet domain. The transient response is predicted using the explicit central difference time integration scheme. Numerical results for the simulation of wave propagation in isotropic, quasi-isotropic and cross-ply laminated plates are presented and demonstrate the high spatial convergence and problem size reduction obtained by the present method.

Interactions between Hillslope Hydraulic Response Function, Vegetation Organisation and Catchment Behaviour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schymanski, Stanislaus J.; McDonnell, Jeffrey; Or, Dani

2013-04-01

The behaviour of a catchment is sensitive to the pattern and organisation of its components (hillslopes, land cover etc.). Explaining observed organisation and emergence of pattern requires understanding of key organising principles, recognising that albeit similarities, the larger scale behaviour is likely to differ from that of individual components. In other words, the whole does not necessarily behave like the sum of its parts, because the arrangement of the parts matters. For example, hillslopes involve complex and hydrologically interacting elements (rapid flow pathways, depression storage, slope, and variable soil thickness) that shape hillslope hydrologic response in ways that cannot be represented by a collection of pores as implied by standard hydraulic functions. Additionally, inherent spatial and temporal variability of vegetation prohibits detailed and mechanistic parameterisation of root water uptake and evapotranspiration. The interplay of hydrologic hillslope function, climatic forcing and vegetation dynamics translates into complex catchment behaviour at the outlet. Vegetation, one of the most dynamic determinants of catchment behaviour, may interact with its environment by varying different elements such as root system properties, foliage properties and spatial arrangement. These interactions span different temporal scales from minutes (stomatal conductance) to decades (spatial arrangement) all of which may shape evapotranspiration and hence catchment behaviour. Evidence suggests that vegetation adapts to its environment in a self-organised, predictable way, guided by some overarching goal function, such as maximum net carbon profit or maximum entropy production. Appropriate optimality considerations under prevailing constraints enabled predictions of spatial heterogeneity of vegetation cover, or temporal dynamics of root distribution, canopy properties and water use. The hydrologic hillslope behaviour (e.g., surface and subsurface water fluxes and storage) is a powerful ingredient that defines boundary conditions for vegetation self-organisation. To systematically evaluate the role of this element, we propose a Hillslope Hydraulic Response Function (HHRF) a standardised parameterisation framework based on simplified and analytical representation of a prototypic hillslope. The HHRF uses a few geometrical parameters and intrinsic parameters to represent hillslope response in terms of fluxes and storage dynamics. Such an approach has been instrumental in deducing hydrologic response of watersheds (Kirchner, 2009, WRR) but has not been used for systematic parameterisation of HHRF. Here we separate out the biotic and abiotic components of catchment behaviour and test the sensitivity of vegetation and the catchment water balance to different hypothetical parameterisations of the HHRF.

A Local to National Scale Catchment Model Simulation Framework for Hydrological Predictions and Impact Assessments Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freer, Jim; Coxon, Gemma; Quinn, Niall; Dunne, Toby; Lane, Rosie; Bates, Paul; Wagener, Thorsten; Woods, Ross; Neal, Jeff; Howden, Nicholas; Musuuza, Jude

2017-04-01

There is a huge challenge in developing hydrological model structures that can be used for hypothesis testing, prediction, impact assessment and risk analyses over a wide range of spatial scales. There are many reasons why this is the case, from computational demands, to how we define and characterize different features and pathway connectivities in the landscape, that differ depending on the objectives of the study. However there is certainly a need more than ever to explore the trade-offs between the complexity of modelling applied (i.e. spatial discretization, levels of process representation, complexity of landscape representation) compared to the benefits realized in terms of predictive capability and robustness of these predictions during hydrological extremes and during change. Furthermore, there is a further balance, particularly associated with prediction uncertainties, in that it is not desirable to have modelling systems that are too complex compared to the observed data that would ever be available to apply them. This is particularly the case when models are applied to quantify national impact assessments, especially if these are based on validation assessments from smaller more detailed case studies. Therefore the hydrological community needs modelling tools and approaches that enable these trade-offs to be explored and to understand the level of representation needed in models to be 'fit-for-purpose' for a given application. This paper presents a catchment scale national modelling framework based on Dynamic-TOPMODEL specifically setup to fulfil these aims. A key component of the modelling framework is it's structural flexibility, as is the ability to assess model outputs using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The model build has been automated to work at any spatial scale to the national scale, and within that to control the level of spatial discretisation and connectivity of locally accounted landscape elements in the form of hydrological response units (HRU's). This allows for the explicit consideration of spatial rainfall fields, landscape, soils and geological attributes and the spatial connectivity of hydrological flow pathways to explore what level of modelling complexity we need for different prediction problems. We shall present this framework and show how it can be used in flood and drought risk analyses as well as include attributes and features within the landscape to explore societal and climate impacts effectively within an uncertainty analyses framework.

Determining Selection across Heterogeneous Landscapes: A Perturbation-Based Method and Its Application to Modeling Evolution in Space.

PubMed

Wickman, Jonas; Diehl, Sebastian; Blasius, Bernd; Klausmeier, Christopher A; Ryabov, Alexey B; Brännström, Åke

2017-04-01

Spatial structure can decisively influence the way evolutionary processes unfold. To date, several methods have been used to study evolution in spatial systems, including population genetics, quantitative genetics, moment-closure approximations, and individual-based models. Here we extend the study of spatial evolutionary dynamics to eco-evolutionary models based on reaction-diffusion equations and adaptive dynamics. Specifically, we derive expressions for the strength of directional and stabilizing/disruptive selection that apply both in continuous space and to metacommunities with symmetrical dispersal between patches. For directional selection on a quantitative trait, this yields a way to integrate local directional selection across space and determine whether the trait value will increase or decrease. The robustness of this prediction is validated against quantitative genetics. For stabilizing/disruptive selection, we show that spatial heterogeneity always contributes to disruptive selection and hence always promotes evolutionary branching. The expression for directional selection is numerically very efficient and hence lends itself to simulation studies of evolutionary community assembly. We illustrate the application and utility of the expressions for this purpose with two examples of the evolution of resource utilization. Finally, we outline the domain of applicability of reaction-diffusion equations as a modeling framework and discuss their limitations.

Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure

PubMed Central

Dyble, Julianne; Bienfang, Paul; Dusek, Eva; Hitchcock, Gary; Holland, Fred; Laws, Ed; Lerczak, James; McGillicuddy, Dennis J; Minnett, Peter; Moore, Stephanie K; O'Kelly, Charles; Solo-Gabriele, Helena; Wang, John D

2008-01-01

Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges. PMID:19025676

Poloidal rotation dynamics, radial electric field, and neoclassical theory in the jet internal-transport-barrier region.

PubMed

Crombé, K; Andrew, Y; Brix, M; Giroud, C; Hacquin, S; Hawkes, N C; Murari, A; Nave, M F F; Ongena, J; Parail, V; Van Oost, G; Voitsekhovitch, I; Zastrow, K-D

2005-10-07

Results from the first measurements of a core plasma poloidal rotation velocity (upsilontheta) across internal transport barriers (ITB) on JET are presented. The spatial and temporal evolution of the ITB can be followed along with the upsilontheta radial profiles, providing a very clear link between the location of the steepest region of the ion temperature gradient and localized spin-up of upsilontheta. The upsilontheta measurements are an order of magnitude higher than the neoclassical predictions for thermal particles in the ITB region, contrary to the close agreement found between the determined and predicted particle and heat transport coefficients [K.-D. Zastrow, Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 46, B255 (2004)]. These results have significant implications for the understanding of transport barrier dynamics due to their large impact on the measured radial electric field profile.

Diatom-sedimentation feedback generates a self-organized geomorphic landscape on intertidal mudflats (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van de Koppel, J.; Weerman, E.; Herman, P.

2010-12-01

During spring, intertidal flats can exhibit strikingly regular spatial patterns of diatom-covered hummocks alternating with almost bare, water-filled hollows. We hypothesize that 1) the formation of this geomorphic landscape is caused by a strong interaction between benthic diatoms and sediment dynamics, inducing spatial self-organization, and 2) that self-organization affects ecosystem functioning by increasing the net average sedimentation on the tidal flat. We present a combined empirical and mathematical study to test the first hypothesis. We determined how the sediment erosion threshold varied with diatom cover and elevation. Our results were incorporated into a mathematical model to investigate whether the proposed mechanism could explain the formation of the observed patterns. Our mathematical model confirmed that the interaction between sedimentation, diatom growth and water redistribution could induce the formation of regular patterns on the intertidal mudflat. The model predicts that areas exhibiting spatially-self-organized patterns have increased sediment accretion and diatom biomass compared with areas lacking spatial patterns. We tested this prediction by following the sediment elevation during the season on both patterned and unpatterned parts of the mudflat. The results of our study confirmed our model prediction, as more sediment was found to accumulate in patterned parts of the mudflat, revealing how self-organization affected the functioning of mudflat ecosystems. Our study on intertidal mudflats provides a simple but clear-cut example of how the interaction between biological and geomorphological processes, through the process of self-organization, induces a self-organized geomorphic landscape.

Analytical approximations for spatial stochastic gene expression in single cells and tissues

PubMed Central

Smith, Stephen; Cianci, Claudia; Grima, Ramon

2016-01-01

Gene expression occurs in an environment in which both stochastic and diffusive effects are significant. Spatial stochastic simulations are computationally expensive compared with their deterministic counterparts, and hence little is currently known of the significance of intrinsic noise in a spatial setting. Starting from the reaction–diffusion master equation (RDME) describing stochastic reaction–diffusion processes, we here derive expressions for the approximate steady-state mean concentrations which are explicit functions of the dimensionality of space, rate constants and diffusion coefficients. The expressions have a simple closed form when the system consists of one effective species. These formulae show that, even for spatially homogeneous systems, mean concentrations can depend on diffusion coefficients: this contradicts the predictions of deterministic reaction–diffusion processes, thus highlighting the importance of intrinsic noise. We confirm our theory by comparison with stochastic simulations, using the RDME and Brownian dynamics, of two models of stochastic and spatial gene expression in single cells and tissues. PMID:27146686

Intelligent automated surface grid generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yao, Ke-Thia; Gelsey, Andrew

1995-01-01

The goal of our research is to produce a flexible, general grid generator for automated use by other programs, such as numerical optimizers. The current trend in the gridding field is toward interactive gridding. Interactive gridding more readily taps into the spatial reasoning abilities of the human user through the use of a graphical interface with a mouse. However, a sometimes fruitful approach to generating new designs is to apply an optimizer with shape modification operators to improve an initial design. In order for this approach to be useful, the optimizer must be able to automatically grid and evaluate the candidate designs. This paper describes and intelligent gridder that is capable of analyzing the topology of the spatial domain and predicting approximate physical behaviors based on the geometry of the spatial domain to automatically generate grids for computational fluid dynamics simulators. Typically gridding programs are given a partitioning of the spatial domain to assist the gridder. Our gridder is capable of performing this partitioning. This enables the gridder to automatically grid spatial domains of wide range of configurations.

Cell shape and negative links in regulatory motifs together control spatial information flow in signaling networks.

PubMed

Neves, Susana R; Tsokas, Panayiotis; Sarkar, Anamika; Grace, Elizabeth A; Rangamani, Padmini; Taubenfeld, Stephen M; Alberini, Cristina M; Schaff, James C; Blitzer, Robert D; Moraru, Ion I; Iyengar, Ravi

2008-05-16

The role of cell size and shape in controlling local intracellular signaling reactions, and how this spatial information originates and is propagated, is not well understood. We have used partial differential equations to model the flow of spatial information from the beta-adrenergic receptor to MAPK1,2 through the cAMP/PKA/B-Raf/MAPK1,2 network in neurons using real geometries. The numerical simulations indicated that cell shape controls the dynamics of local biochemical activity of signal-modulated negative regulators, such as phosphodiesterases and protein phosphatases within regulatory loops to determine the size of microdomains of activated signaling components. The model prediction that negative regulators control the flow of spatial information to downstream components was verified experimentally in rat hippocampal slices. These results suggest a mechanism by which cellular geometry, the presence of regulatory loops with negative regulators, and key reaction rates all together control spatial information transfer and microdomain characteristics within cells.

Robot assistance of motor learning: A neuro-cognitive perspective.

PubMed

Heuer, Herbert; Lüttgen, Jenna

2015-09-01

The last several years have seen a number of approaches to robot assistance of motor learning. Experimental studies have produced a range of findings from beneficial effects through null-effects to detrimental effects of robot assistance. In this review we seek an answer to the question under which conditions which outcomes should be expected. For this purpose we derive tentative predictions based on a classification of learning tasks in terms of the products of learning, the mechanisms involved, and the modulation of these mechanisms by robot assistance. Consistent with these predictions, the learning of dynamic features of trajectories is facilitated and the learning of kinematic and dynamic transformations is impeded by robotic guidance, whereas the learning of dynamic transformations can profit from robot assistance with error-amplifying forces. Deviating from the predictions, learning of spatial features of trajectories is impeded by haptic guidance, but can be facilitated by divergent force fields. The deviations point to the existence of additional effects of robot assistance beyond the modulation of learning mechanisms, e.g., the induction of a passive role of the motor system during practice with haptic guidance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do environmental dynamics matter in fate models? Exploring scenario dynamics for a terrestrial and an aquatic system.

PubMed

Morselli, Melissa; Terzaghi, Elisa; Di Guardo, Antonio

2018-01-24

Nowadays, there is growing interest in inserting more ecological realism into risk assessment of chemicals. On the exposure evaluation side, this can be done by studying the complexity of exposure in the ecosystem, niche partitioning, e.g. variation of the exposure scenario. Current regulatory predictive approaches, to ensure simplicity and predictive ability, generally keep the scenario as static as possible. This could lead to under or overprediction of chemical exposure depending on the chemical and scenario simulated. To account for more realistic exposure conditions, varying temporally and spatially, additional scenario complexity should be included in currently used models to improve their predictive ability. This study presents two case studies (a terrestrial and an aquatic one) in which some polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were simulated with the SoilPlusVeg and ChimERA models to show the importance of scenario variation in time (biotic and abiotic compartments). The results outlined the importance of accounting for planetary boundary layer variation and vegetation dynamics to accurately predict air concentration changes and the timing of chemical dispersion from the source in terrestrial systems. For the aquatic exercise, the results indicated the need to account for organic carbon forms (particulate and dissolved organic carbon) and vegetation biomass dynamics. In both cases the range of variation was up to two orders of magnitude depending on the congener and scenario, reinforcing the need for incorporating such knowledge into exposure assessment.

Spatial variation in population growth rate and community structure affects local and regional dynamics.

PubMed

Trzcinski, M Kurtis; Walde, Sandra J; Taylor, Philip D

2008-11-01

1. Theory predicting that populations with high maximum rates of increase (r(max)) will be less stable, and that metapopulations with high average r(max) will be less synchronous, was tested using a small protist, Bodo, that inhabits pitcher plant leaves (Sarracenia purpurea L.). The effects of predators and resources on these relationships were also determined. 2. Abundance data collected for a total of 60 populations of Bodo, over a period of 3 months, at six sites in three bogs in eastern Canada, were used to test these predictions. Mosquitoes were manipulated in half the leaves partway through the season to increase the range of predation rates. 3. Dynamics differed greatly among leaves and sites, but most populations exhibited one or more episodes of rapid increase followed by a population crash. Estimates of r(max) obtained using a linear mixed-effects model, ranged from 1 x 5 to 2 x 7 per day. Resource levels (captured insect) and midge abundances affected r(max). 4. Higher r(max) was associated with greater temporal variability and lower synchrony as predicted. However, in contrast to expectations, populations with higher r(max) also had lower mean abundance and were more suppressed by predators. 5. This study demonstrates that the link between r(max) and temporal variability is key to understanding the dynamics of populations that spend little time near equilibrium, and to predicting and interpreting the effects of community structure on the dynamics of such populations.

Local introduction and heterogeneous spatial spread of dengue-suppressing Wolbachia through an urban population of Aedes aegypti

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Tom L.; Barton, Nicholas H.; Rašić, Gordana; Turley, Andrew P.; Montgomery, Brian L.; Iturbe-Ormaetxe, Inaki; Cook, Peter E.; Ryan, Peter A.; Ritchie, Scott A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; O’Neill, Scott L.

2017-01-01

Dengue-suppressing Wolbachia strains are promising tools for arbovirus control, particularly as they have the potential to self-spread following local introductions. To test this, we followed the frequency of the transinfected Wolbachia strain wMel through Ae. aegypti in Cairns, Australia, following releases at 3 nonisolated locations within the city in early 2013. Spatial spread was analysed graphically using interpolation and by fitting a statistical model describing the position and width of the wave. For the larger 2 of the 3 releases (covering 0.97 km2 and 0.52 km2), we observed slow but steady spatial spread, at about 100–200 m per year, roughly consistent with theoretical predictions. In contrast, the smallest release (0.11 km2) produced erratic temporal and spatial dynamics, with little evidence of spread after 2 years. This is consistent with the prediction concerning fitness-decreasing Wolbachia transinfections that a minimum release area is needed to achieve stable local establishment and spread in continuous habitats. Our graphical and likelihood analyses produced broadly consistent estimates of wave speed and wave width. Spread at all sites was spatially heterogeneous, suggesting that environmental heterogeneity will affect large-scale Wolbachia transformations of urban mosquito populations. The persistence and spread of Wolbachia in release areas meeting minimum area requirements indicates the promise of successful large-scale population transformation. PMID:28557993

Local introduction and heterogeneous spatial spread of dengue-suppressing Wolbachia through an urban population of Aedes aegypti.

PubMed

Schmidt, Tom L; Barton, Nicholas H; Rašić, Gordana; Turley, Andrew P; Montgomery, Brian L; Iturbe-Ormaetxe, Inaki; Cook, Peter E; Ryan, Peter A; Ritchie, Scott A; Hoffmann, Ary A; O'Neill, Scott L; Turelli, Michael

2017-05-01

Dengue-suppressing Wolbachia strains are promising tools for arbovirus control, particularly as they have the potential to self-spread following local introductions. To test this, we followed the frequency of the transinfected Wolbachia strain wMel through Ae. aegypti in Cairns, Australia, following releases at 3 nonisolated locations within the city in early 2013. Spatial spread was analysed graphically using interpolation and by fitting a statistical model describing the position and width of the wave. For the larger 2 of the 3 releases (covering 0.97 km2 and 0.52 km2), we observed slow but steady spatial spread, at about 100-200 m per year, roughly consistent with theoretical predictions. In contrast, the smallest release (0.11 km2) produced erratic temporal and spatial dynamics, with little evidence of spread after 2 years. This is consistent with the prediction concerning fitness-decreasing Wolbachia transinfections that a minimum release area is needed to achieve stable local establishment and spread in continuous habitats. Our graphical and likelihood analyses produced broadly consistent estimates of wave speed and wave width. Spread at all sites was spatially heterogeneous, suggesting that environmental heterogeneity will affect large-scale Wolbachia transformations of urban mosquito populations. The persistence and spread of Wolbachia in release areas meeting minimum area requirements indicates the promise of successful large-scale population transformation.

Neural mechanisms underlying spatial realignment during adaptation to optical wedge prisms.

PubMed

Chapman, Heidi L; Eramudugolla, Ranmalee; Gavrilescu, Maria; Strudwick, Mark W; Loftus, Andrea; Cunnington, Ross; Mattingley, Jason B

2010-07-01

Visuomotor adaptation to a shift in visual input produced by prismatic lenses is an example of dynamic sensory-motor plasticity within the brain. Prism adaptation is readily induced in healthy individuals, and is thought to reflect the brain's ability to compensate for drifts in spatial calibration between different sensory systems. The neural correlate of this form of functional plasticity is largely unknown, although current models predict the involvement of parieto-cerebellar circuits. Recent studies that have employed event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to identify brain regions associated with prism adaptation have discovered patterns of parietal and cerebellar modulation as participants corrected their visuomotor errors during the early part of adaptation. However, the role of these regions in the later stage of adaptation, when 'spatial realignment' or true adaptation is predicted to occur, remains unclear. Here, we used fMRI to quantify the distinctive patterns of parieto-cerebellar activity as visuomotor adaptation develops. We directly contrasted activation patterns during the initial error correction phase of visuomotor adaptation with that during the later spatial realignment phase, and found significant recruitment of the parieto-cerebellar network--with activations in the right inferior parietal lobe and the right posterior cerebellum. These findings provide the first evidence of both cerebellar and parietal involvement during the spatial realignment phase of prism adaptation. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decline of Tumor Vascular Function as Assessed by Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging Is Associated With Poor Responses to Radiation Therapy and Chemotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Fang-Hsin; Wang, Chun-Chieh; Radiation Biology Research Center, Institute for Radiological Research, Chang Gung University/Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Linkou, Taoyuan, Taiwan

Purpose: To investigate whether changes in the volume transfer coefficient (K{sup trans}) in a growing tumor could be used as a surrogate marker for predicting tumor responses to radiation therapy (RT) and chemotherapy (CT). Methods and Materials: Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) was consecutively performed on tumor-bearing mice, and temporal and spatial changes of K{sup trans} values were measured along with tumor growth. Tumor responses to RT and CT were studied before and after observed changes in K{sup trans} values with time. Results: Dynamic changes with an initial increase and subsequent decline in K{sup trans} values were found tomore » be associated with tumor growth. When each tumor was divided into core and peripheral regions, the K{sup trans} decline was greater in core, although neither vascular structure or necrosis could be linked to this spatial difference. Tumor responses to RT were worse if applied after the decline of K{sup trans}, and there was less drug distribution and cell death in the tumor core after CT. Conclusion: The K{sup trans} value in growing tumors, reflecting the changes of tumor microenvironment and vascular function, is strongly associated with tumor responses to RT and CT and could be a potential surrogate marker for predicting the tumor response to these treatments.« less

Challenges and opportunities to improve understanding on wetland ecosystem and function at the local catchment scale: data fusion, data-model integration, and prediction uncertainty.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, I. Y.

2016-12-01

Wetlands are valuable landscape features that provide important ecosystem functions and services. The ecosystem processes in wetlands are highly dependent on the hydrology. However, hydroperiod (i.e., change dynamics in inundation extent) is highly variable spatially and temporarily, and extremely difficult to predict owing to the complexity in hydrological processes within wetlands and its interaction with surrounding areas. This study reports the challenges and progress in assessing the catchment scale benefits of wetlands to regulate hydrological regime and water quality improvement in agricultural watershed. A process-based watershed model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was improved to simulate the cumulative impacts of wetlands on downstream. Newly developed remote sensing products from LiDAR intensity and time series Landsat records, which show the inter-annual changes in fraction inundation, were utilized to describe the change status of inundated areas within forested wetlands, develop spatially varying wetland parameters, and evaluate the predicted inundated areas at the landscape level. We outline the challenges on developing the time series inundation mapping products at a high spatial and temporal resolution and reconciling the catchment scale model with the moderate remote sensing products. We then highlight the importance of integrating spatialized information to model calibration and evaluation to address the issues of equi-finality and prediction uncertainty. This integrated approach was applied to the upper region of Choptank River Watershed, the agricultural watershed in the Coastal Plain of Chesapeake Bay Watershed (in US). In the Mid- Atlantic US, the provision of pollution regulation services provided by wetlands has been emphasized due to declining water quality within the Chesapeake Bay and watersheds, and the preservation and restoration of wetlands has become the top priority to manage nonpoint source water pollution.

The malleability of spatial skills: a meta-analysis of training studies.

PubMed

Uttal, David H; Meadow, Nathaniel G; Tipton, Elizabeth; Hand, Linda L; Alden, Alison R; Warren, Christopher; Newcombe, Nora S

2013-03-01

Having good spatial skills strongly predicts achievement and attainment in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics fields (e.g., Shea, Lubinski, & Benbow, 2001; Wai, Lubinski, & Benbow, 2009). Improving spatial skills is therefore of both theoretical and practical importance. To determine whether and to what extent training and experience can improve these skills, we meta-analyzed 217 research studies investigating the magnitude, moderators, durability, and generalizability of training on spatial skills. After eliminating outliers, the average effect size (Hedges's g) for training relative to control was 0.47 (SE = 0.04). Training effects were stable and were not affected by delays between training and posttesting. Training also transferred to other spatial tasks that were not directly trained. We analyzed the effects of several moderators, including the presence and type of control groups, sex, age, and type of training. Additionally, we included a theoretically motivated typology of spatial skills that emphasizes 2 dimensions: intrinsic versus extrinsic and static versus dynamic (Newcombe & Shipley, in press). Finally, we consider the potential educational and policy implications of directly training spatial skills. Considered together, the results suggest that spatially enriched education could pay substantial dividends in increasing participation in mathematics, science, and engineering. © 2013 American Psychological Association

Model for adhesion clutch explains biphasic relationship between actin flow and traction at the cell leading edge

PubMed Central

Craig, Erin M.; Stricker, Jonathan; Gardel, Margaret L.; Mogilner, Alex

2015-01-01

Cell motility relies on the continuous reorganization of a dynamic actin-myosin-adhesion network at the leading edge of the cell, in order to generate protrusion at the leading edge and traction between the cell and its external environment. We analyze experimentally measured spatial distributions of actin flow, traction force, myosin density, and adhesion density in control and pharmacologically perturbed epithelial cells in order to develop a mechanical model of the actin-adhesion-myosin self-organization at the leading edge. A model in which the F-actin network is treated as a viscous gel, and adhesion clutch engagement is strengthened by myosin but weakened by actin flow, can explain the measured molecular distributions and correctly predict the spatial distributions of the actin flow and traction stress. We test the model by comparing its predictions with measurements of the actin flow and traction stress in cells with fast and slow actin polymerization rates. The model predicts how the location of the lamellipodium-lamellum boundary depends on the actin viscosity and adhesion strength. The model further predicts that the location of the lamellipodium-lamellum boundary is not very sensitive to the level of myosin contraction. PMID:25969948

Dynamical Mapping of Anopheles darlingi Densities in a Residual Malaria Transmission Area of French Guiana by Using Remote Sensing and Meteorological Data

PubMed Central

Adde, Antoine; Roux, Emmanuel; Mangeas, Morgan; Dessay, Nadine; Nacher, Mathieu; Dusfour, Isabelle; Girod, Romain; Briolant, Sébastien

2016-01-01

Local variation in the density of Anopheles mosquitoes and the risk of exposure to bites are essential to explain the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in the transmission of malaria. Vector distribution is driven by environmental factors. Based on variables derived from satellite imagery and meteorological observations, this study aimed to dynamically model and map the densities of Anopheles darlingi in the municipality of Saint-Georges de l’Oyapock (French Guiana). Longitudinal sampling sessions of An. darlingi densities were conducted between September 2012 and October 2014. Landscape and meteorological data were collected and processed to extract a panel of variables that were potentially related to An. darlingi ecology. Based on these data, a robust methodology was formed to estimate a statistical predictive model of the spatial-temporal variations in the densities of An. darlingi in Saint-Georges de l’Oyapock. The final cross-validated model integrated two landscape variables—dense forest surface and built surface—together with four meteorological variables related to rainfall, evapotranspiration, and the minimal and maximal temperatures. Extrapolation of the model allowed the generation of predictive weekly maps of An. darlingi densities at a resolution of 10-m. Our results supported the use of satellite imagery and meteorological data to predict malaria vector densities. Such fine-scale modeling approach might be a useful tool for health authorities to plan control strategies and social communication in a cost-effective, targeted, and timely manner. PMID:27749938

Dynamical Mapping of Anopheles darlingi Densities in a Residual Malaria Transmission Area of French Guiana by Using Remote Sensing and Meteorological Data.

PubMed

Adde, Antoine; Roux, Emmanuel; Mangeas, Morgan; Dessay, Nadine; Nacher, Mathieu; Dusfour, Isabelle; Girod, Romain; Briolant, Sébastien

2016-01-01

Local variation in the density of Anopheles mosquitoes and the risk of exposure to bites are essential to explain the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in the transmission of malaria. Vector distribution is driven by environmental factors. Based on variables derived from satellite imagery and meteorological observations, this study aimed to dynamically model and map the densities of Anopheles darlingi in the municipality of Saint-Georges de l'Oyapock (French Guiana). Longitudinal sampling sessions of An. darlingi densities were conducted between September 2012 and October 2014. Landscape and meteorological data were collected and processed to extract a panel of variables that were potentially related to An. darlingi ecology. Based on these data, a robust methodology was formed to estimate a statistical predictive model of the spatial-temporal variations in the densities of An. darlingi in Saint-Georges de l'Oyapock. The final cross-validated model integrated two landscape variables-dense forest surface and built surface-together with four meteorological variables related to rainfall, evapotranspiration, and the minimal and maximal temperatures. Extrapolation of the model allowed the generation of predictive weekly maps of An. darlingi densities at a resolution of 10-m. Our results supported the use of satellite imagery and meteorological data to predict malaria vector densities. Such fine-scale modeling approach might be a useful tool for health authorities to plan control strategies and social communication in a cost-effective, targeted, and timely manner.

Cross scale interactions, nonlinearities, and forecasting catastrophic events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, Debra P.C.; Pielke, Roger A.; Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.; Allen, Craig D.; Munson-McGee, Stuart; Havstad, Kris M.

2004-01-01

Catastrophic events share characteristic nonlinear behaviors that are often generated by cross-scale interactions and feedbacks among system elements. These events result in surprises that cannot easily be predicted based on information obtained at a single scale. Progress on catastrophic events has focused on one of the following two areas: nonlinear dynamics through time without an explicit consideration of spatial connectivity [Holling, C. S. (1992) Ecol. Monogr. 62, 447–502] or spatial connectivity and the spread of contagious processes without a consideration of cross-scale interactions and feedbacks [Zeng, N., Neeling, J. D., Lau, L. M. & Tucker, C. J. (1999) Science 286, 1537–1540]. These approaches rarely have ventured beyond traditional disciplinary boundaries. We provide an interdisciplinary, conceptual, and general mathematical framework for understanding and forecasting nonlinear dynamics through time and across space. We illustrate the generality and usefulness of our approach by using new data and recasting published data from ecology (wildfires and desertification), epidemiology (infectious diseases), and engineering (structural failures). We show that decisions that minimize the likelihood of catastrophic events must be based on cross-scale interactions, and such decisions will often be counterintuitive. Given the continuing challenges associated with global change, approaches that cross disciplinary boundaries to include interactions and feedbacks at multiple scales are needed to increase our ability to predict catastrophic events and develop strategies for minimizing their occurrence and impacts. Our framework is an important step in developing predictive tools and designing experiments to examine cross-scale interactions.

From individual spiking neurons to population behavior: Systematic elimination of short-wavelength spatial modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steyn-Ross, Moira L.; Steyn-Ross, D. A.

2016-02-01

Mean-field models of the brain approximate spiking dynamics by assuming that each neuron responds to its neighbors via a naive spatial average that neglects local fluctuations and correlations in firing activity. In this paper we address this issue by introducing a rigorous formalism to enable spatial coarse-graining of spiking dynamics, scaling from the microscopic level of a single type 1 (integrator) neuron to a macroscopic assembly of spiking neurons that are interconnected by chemical synapses and nearest-neighbor gap junctions. Spiking behavior at the single-neuron scale ℓ ≈10 μ m is described by Wilson's two-variable conductance-based equations [H. R. Wilson, J. Theor. Biol. 200, 375 (1999), 10.1006/jtbi.1999.1002], driven by fields of incoming neural activity from neighboring neurons. We map these equations to a coarser spatial resolution of grid length B ℓ , with B ≫1 being the blocking ratio linking micro and macro scales. Our method systematically eliminates high-frequency (short-wavelength) spatial modes q ⃗ in favor of low-frequency spatial modes Q ⃗ using an adiabatic elimination procedure that has been shown to be equivalent to the path-integral coarse graining applied to renormalization group theory of critical phenomena. This bottom-up neural regridding allows us to track the percolation of synaptic and ion-channel noise from the single neuron up to the scale of macroscopic population-average variables. Anticipated applications of neural regridding include extraction of the current-to-firing-rate transfer function, investigation of fluctuation criticality near phase-transition tipping points, determination of spatial scaling laws for avalanche events, and prediction of the spatial extent of self-organized macrocolumnar structures. As a first-order exemplar of the method, we recover nonlinear corrections for a coarse-grained Wilson spiking neuron embedded in a network of identical diffusively coupled neurons whose chemical synapses have been disabled. Intriguingly, we find that reblocking transforms the original type 1 Wilson integrator into a type 2 resonator whose spike-rate transfer function exhibits abrupt spiking onset with near-vertical takeoff and chaotic dynamics just above threshold.

Using Bayesian hierarchical models to better understand nitrate sources and sinks in agricultural watersheds.

PubMed

Xia, Yongqiu; Weller, Donald E; Williams, Meghan N; Jordan, Thomas E; Yan, Xiaoyuan

2016-11-15

Export coefficient models (ECMs) are often used to predict nutrient sources and sinks in watersheds because ECMs can flexibly incorporate processes and have minimal data requirements. However, ECMs do not quantify uncertainties in model structure, parameters, or predictions; nor do they account for spatial and temporal variability in land characteristics, weather, and management practices. We applied Bayesian hierarchical methods to address these problems in ECMs used to predict nitrate concentration in streams. We compared four model formulations, a basic ECM and three models with additional terms to represent competing hypotheses about the sources of error in ECMs and about spatial and temporal variability of coefficients: an ADditive Error Model (ADEM), a SpatioTemporal Parameter Model (STPM), and a Dynamic Parameter Model (DPM). The DPM incorporates a first-order random walk to represent spatial correlation among parameters and a dynamic linear model to accommodate temporal correlation. We tested the modeling approach in a proof of concept using watershed characteristics and nitrate export measurements from watersheds in the Coastal Plain physiographic province of the Chesapeake Bay drainage. Among the four models, the DPM was the best--it had the lowest mean error, explained the most variability (R 2  = 0.99), had the narrowest prediction intervals, and provided the most effective tradeoff between fit complexity (its deviance information criterion, DIC, was 45.6 units lower than any other model, indicating overwhelming support for the DPM). The superiority of the DPM supports its underlying hypothesis that the main source of error in ECMs is their failure to account for parameter variability rather than structural error. Analysis of the fitted DPM coefficients for cropland export and instream retention revealed some of the factors controlling nitrate concentration: cropland nitrate exports were positively related to stream flow and watershed average slope, while instream nitrate retention was positively correlated with nitrate concentration. By quantifying spatial and temporal variability in sources and sinks, the DPM provides new information to better target management actions to the most effective times and places. Given the wide use of ECMs as research and management tools, our approach can be broadly applied in other watersheds and to other materials. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

2006-03-01

The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and for mega-earthquakes of M9.0+. The monitoring at regional scales may require application of a recently proposed scheme for the spatial stabilization of the intermediate-term middle-range predictions. The scheme guarantees a more objective and reliable diagnosis of times of increased probability and is less restrictive to input seismic data. It makes feasible reestablishment of seismic monitoring aimed at prediction of large magnitude earthquakes in Caucasus and Central Asia, which to our regret, has been discontinued in 1991. The first results of the monitoring (1986-1990) were encouraging, at least for M6.5+.

Can trait patterns along gradients predict plant community responses to climate change?

PubMed

Guittar, John; Goldberg, Deborah; Klanderud, Kari; Telford, Richard J; Vandvik, Vigdis

2016-10-01

Plant functional traits vary consistently along climate gradients and are therefore potential predictors of plant community response to climate change. We test this space-for-time assumption by combining a spatial gradient study with whole-community turf transplantation along temperature and precipitation gradients in a network of 12 grassland sites in Southern Norway. Using data on eight traits for 169 species and annual vegetation censuses of 235 turfs over 5 yr, we quantify trait-based responses to climate change by comparing observed community dynamics in transplanted turfs to field-parameterized null model simulations. Three traits related to species architecture (maximum height, number of dormant meristems, and ramet-ramet connection persistence) varied consistently along spatial temperature gradients and also correlated to changes in species abundances in turfs transplanted to warmer climates. Two traits associated with resource acquisition strategy (SLA, leaf area) increased along spatial temperature gradients but did not correlate to changes in species abundances following warming. No traits correlated consistently with precipitation. Our study supports the hypothesis that spatial associations between plant traits and broad-scale climate variables can be predictive of community response to climate change, but it also suggests that not all traits with clear patterns along climate gradients will necessarily influence community response to an equal degree. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Spatial gradients of protein-level time delays set the pace of the traveling segmentation clock waves

PubMed Central

Ay, Ahmet; Holland, Jack; Sperlea, Adriana; Devakanmalai, Gnanapackiam Sheela; Knierer, Stephan; Sangervasi, Sebastian; Stevenson, Angel; Özbudak, Ertuğrul M.

2014-01-01

The vertebrate segmentation clock is a gene expression oscillator controlling rhythmic segmentation of the vertebral column during embryonic development. The period of oscillations becomes longer as cells are displaced along the posterior to anterior axis, which results in traveling waves of clock gene expression sweeping in the unsegmented tissue. Although various hypotheses necessitating the inclusion of additional regulatory genes into the core clock network at different spatial locations have been proposed, the mechanism underlying traveling waves has remained elusive. Here, we combined molecular-level computational modeling and quantitative experimentation to solve this puzzle. Our model predicts the existence of an increasing gradient of gene expression time delays along the posterior to anterior direction to recapitulate spatiotemporal profiles of the traveling segmentation clock waves in different genetic backgrounds in zebrafish. We validated this prediction by measuring an increased time delay of oscillatory Her1 protein production along the unsegmented tissue. Our results refuted the need for spatial expansion of the core feedback loop to explain the occurrence of traveling waves. Spatial regulation of gene expression time delays is a novel way of creating dynamic patterns; this is the first report demonstrating such a control mechanism in any tissue and future investigations will explore the presence of analogous examples in other biological systems. PMID:25336742

Separating spatial search and efficiency rates as components of predation risk

PubMed Central

DeCesare, Nicholas J.

2012-01-01

Predation risk is an important driver of ecosystems, and local spatial variation in risk can have population-level consequences by affecting multiple components of the predation process. I use resource selection and proportional hazard time-to-event modelling to assess the spatial drivers of two key components of risk—the search rate (i.e. aggregative response) and predation efficiency rate (i.e. functional response)—imposed by wolves (Canis lupus) in a multi-prey system. In my study area, both components of risk increased according to topographic variation, but anthropogenic features affected only the search rate. Predicted models of the cumulative hazard, or risk of a kill, underlying wolf search paths validated well with broad-scale variation in kill rates, suggesting that spatial hazard models provide a means of scaling up from local heterogeneity in predation risk to population-level dynamics in predator–prey systems. Additionally, I estimated an integrated model of relative spatial predation risk as the product of the search and efficiency rates, combining the distinct contributions of spatial heterogeneity to each component of risk. PMID:22977145

Coordinated Speed Oscillations in Schooling Killifish Enrich Social Communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Daniel T.; Couzin, Iain D.; Leonard, Naomi Ehrich

2015-10-01

We examine the spatial dynamics of individuals in small schools of banded killifish ( Fundulus diaphanus) that exhibit rhythmic, oscillating speed, typically with sustained, coordinated, out-of-phase speed oscillations as they move around a shallow water tank. We show that the relative motion among the fish yields a periodically time-varying network of social interactions that enriches visually driven social communication. The oscillations lead to the regular making and breaking of occlusions, which we term "switching." We show that the rate of convergence to consensus (biologically, the capacity for individuals in groups to achieve effective coordinated motion) governed by the switching outperforms static alternatives, and performs as well as the less practical case of every fish sensing every other fish. We show further that the oscillations in speed yield oscillations in relative bearing between fish over a range that includes the angles previously predicted to be optimal for a fish to detect changes in heading and speed of its neighbors. To investigate systematically, we derive and analyze a dynamic model of interacting agents that move with oscillatory speed. We show that coordinated circular motion of the school leads to systematic cycling of spatial ordering of agents and possibilities for enriched spatial density of measurements of the external environment. Our results highlight the potential benefits of dynamic communication topologies in collective animal behavior, and suggest new, useful control laws for the distributed coordination of mobile robotic networks.

Application of dynamic Monte Carlo technique in proton beam radiotherapy using Geant4 simulation toolkit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Fada

Monte Carlo method has been successfully applied in simulating the particles transport problems. Most of the Monte Carlo simulation tools are static and they can only be used to perform the static simulations for the problems with fixed physics and geometry settings. Proton therapy is a dynamic treatment technique in the clinical application. In this research, we developed a method to perform the dynamic Monte Carlo simulation of proton therapy using Geant4 simulation toolkit. A passive-scattering treatment nozzle equipped with a rotating range modulation wheel was modeled in this research. One important application of the Monte Carlo simulation is to predict the spatial dose distribution in the target geometry. For simplification, a mathematical model of a human body is usually used as the target, but only the average dose over the whole organ or tissue can be obtained rather than the accurate spatial dose distribution. In this research, we developed a method using MATLAB to convert the medical images of a patient from CT scanning into the patient voxel geometry. Hence, if the patient voxel geometry is used as the target in the Monte Carlo simulation, the accurate spatial dose distribution in the target can be obtained. A data analysis tool---root was used to score the simulation results during a Geant4 simulation and to analyze the data and plot results after simulation. Finally, we successfully obtained the accurate spatial dose distribution in part of a human body after treating a patient with prostate cancer using proton therapy.

Experimental Test of Spatial Updating Models for Monkey Eye-Head Gaze Shifts

PubMed Central

Van Grootel, Tom J.; Van der Willigen, Robert F.; Van Opstal, A. John

2012-01-01

How the brain maintains an accurate and stable representation of visual target locations despite the occurrence of saccadic gaze shifts is a classical problem in oculomotor research. Here we test and dissociate the predictions of different conceptual models for head-unrestrained gaze-localization behavior of macaque monkeys. We adopted the double-step paradigm with rapid eye-head gaze shifts to measure localization accuracy in response to flashed visual stimuli in darkness. We presented the second target flash either before (static), or during (dynamic) the first gaze displacement. In the dynamic case the brief visual flash induced a small retinal streak of up to about 20 deg at an unpredictable moment and retinal location during the eye-head gaze shift, which provides serious challenges for the gaze-control system. However, for both stimulus conditions, monkeys localized the flashed targets with accurate gaze shifts, which rules out several models of visuomotor control. First, these findings exclude the possibility that gaze-shift programming relies on retinal inputs only. Instead, they support the notion that accurate eye-head motor feedback updates the gaze-saccade coordinates. Second, in dynamic trials the visuomotor system cannot rely on the coordinates of the planned first eye-head saccade either, which rules out remapping on the basis of a predictive corollary gaze-displacement signal. Finally, because gaze-related head movements were also goal-directed, requiring continuous access to eye-in-head position, we propose that our results best support a dynamic feedback scheme for spatial updating in which visuomotor control incorporates accurate signals about instantaneous eye- and head positions rather than relative eye- and head displacements. PMID:23118883

The influence of interspecific interactions on species range expansion rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Svenning, Jens-Christian; Gravel, Dominique; Holt, Robert D.; Schurr, Frank M.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Dullinger, Stefan; Edwards, Thomas C.; Hickler, Thomas; Higgins, Steven I.; Nabel, Julia E.M.S.; Pagel, Jörn; Normand, Signe

2014-01-01

Ongoing and predicted global change makes understanding and predicting species’ range shifts an urgent scientific priority. Here, we provide a synthetic perspective on the so far poorly understood effects of interspecific interactions on range expansion rates. We present theoretical foundations for how interspecific interactions may modulate range expansion rates, consider examples from empirical studies of biological invasions and natural range expansions as well as process-based simulations, and discuss how interspecific interactions can be more broadly represented in process-based, spatiotemporally explicit range forecasts. Theory tells us that interspecific interactions affect expansion rates via alteration of local population growth rates and spatial displacement rates, but also via effects on other demographic parameters. The best empirical evidence for interspecific effects on expansion rates comes from studies of biological invasions. Notably, invasion studies indicate that competitive dominance and release from specialized enemies can enhance expansion rates. Studies of natural range expansions especially point to the potential for competition from resident species to reduce expansion rates. Overall, it is clear that interspecific interactions may have important consequences for range dynamics, but also that their effects have received too little attention to robustly generalize on their importance. We then discuss how interspecific interactions effects can be more widely incorporated in dynamic modeling of range expansions. Importantly, models must describe spatiotemporal variation in both local population dynamics and dispersal. Finally, we derive the following guidelines for when it is particularly important to explicitly represent interspecific interactions in dynamic range expansion forecasts: if most interacting species show correlated spatial or temporal trends in their effects on the target species, if the number of interacting species is low, and if the abundance of one or more strongly interacting species is not closely linked to the abundance of the target species.

The influence of interspecific interactions on species range expansion rates.

PubMed

Svenning, Jens-Christian; Gravel, Dominique; Holt, Robert D; Schurr, Frank M; Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H; Dullinger, Stefan; Edwards, Thomas C; Hickler, Thomas; Higgins, Steven I; Nabel, Julia E M S; Pagel, Jörn; Normand, Signe

2014-12-01

Ongoing and predicted global change makes understanding and predicting species' range shifts an urgent scientific priority. Here, we provide a synthetic perspective on the so far poorly understood effects of interspecific interactions on range expansion rates. We present theoretical foundations for how interspecific interactions may modulate range expansion rates, consider examples from empirical studies of biological invasions and natural range expansions as well as process-based simulations, and discuss how interspecific interactions can be more broadly represented in process-based, spatiotemporally explicit range forecasts. Theory tells us that interspecific interactions affect expansion rates via alteration of local population growth rates and spatial displacement rates, but also via effects on other demographic parameters. The best empirical evidence for interspecific effects on expansion rates comes from studies of biological invasions. Notably, invasion studies indicate that competitive dominance and release from specialized enemies can enhance expansion rates. Studies of natural range expansions especially point to the potential for competition from resident species to reduce expansion rates. Overall, it is clear that interspecific interactions may have important consequences for range dynamics, but also that their effects have received too little attention to robustly generalize on their importance. We then discuss how interspecific interactions effects can be more widely incorporated in dynamic modeling of range expansions. Importantly, models must describe spatiotemporal variation in both local population dynamics and dispersal. Finally, we derive the following guidelines for when it is particularly important to explicitly represent interspecific interactions in dynamic range expansion forecasts: if most interacting species show correlated spatial or temporal trends in their effects on the target species, if the number of interacting species is low, and if the abundance of one or more strongly interacting species is not closely linked to the abundance of the target species.

The influence of interspecific interactions on species range expansion rates

PubMed Central

Svenning, Jens-Christian; Gravel, Dominique; Holt, Robert D.; Schurr, Frank M.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Dullinger, Stefan; Edwards, Thomas C.; Hickler, Thomas; Higgins, Steven I.; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; Pagel, Jörn; Normand, Signe

2014-01-01

Ongoing and predicted global change makes understanding and predicting species’ range shifts an urgent scientific priority. Here, we provide a synthetic perspective on the so far poorly understood effects of interspecific interactions on range expansion rates. We present theoretical foundations for how interspecific interactions may modulate range expansion rates, consider examples from empirical studies of biological invasions and natural range expansions as well as process-based simulations, and discuss how interspecific interactions can be more broadly represented in process-based, spatiotemporally explicit range forecasts. Theory tells us that interspecific interactions affect expansion rates via alteration of local population growth rates and spatial displacement rates, but also via effects on other demographic parameters. The best empirical evidence for interspecific effects on expansion rates comes from studies of biological invasions. Notably, invasion studies indicate that competitive dominance and release from specialized enemies can enhance expansion rates. Studies of natural range expansions especially point to the potential for competition from resident species to reduce expansion rates. Overall, it is clear that interspecific interactions may have important consequences for range dynamics, but also that their effects have received too little attention to robustly generalize on their importance. We then discuss how interspecific interactions effects can be more widely incorporated in dynamic modeling of range expansions. Importantly, models must describe spatiotemporal variation in both local population dynamics and dispersal. Finally, we derive the following guidelines for when it is particularly important to explicitly represent interspecific interactions in dynamic range expansion forecasts: if most interacting species show correlated spatial or temporal trends in their effects on the target species, if the number of interacting species is low, and if the abundance of one or more strongly interacting species is not closely linked to the abundance of the target species. PMID:25722537

Nanoscale Dynamics of Joule heating and Bubble Nucleation in a Solid-State Nanopore

PubMed Central

Levine, Edlyn V.; Burns, Michael M.; Golovchenko, Jene A.

2016-01-01

We present a mathematical model for Joule heating of an electrolytic solution in a nanopore. The model couples the electrical and thermal dynamics responsible for rapid and extreme superheating of the electrolyte within the nanopore. The model is implemented numerically with a finite element calculation, yielding a time and spatially resolved temperature distribution in the nanopore region. Temperatures near the thermodynamic limit of superheat are predicted to be attained just before the explosive nucleation of a vapor bubble is observed experimentally. Knowledge of this temperature distribution enables the evaluation of related phenomena including bubble nucleation kinetics, relaxation oscillation, and bubble dynamics. PACS numbers 47.55.dp, 47.55.db, 85.35.-p, 05.70Fh PMID:26871171

Three-Dimensional Multiscale Modeling of Dendritic Spacing Selection During Al-Si Directional Solidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourret, Damien; Clarke, Amy J.; Imhoff, Seth D.; Gibbs, Paul J.; Gibbs, John W.; Karma, Alain

2015-08-01

We present a three-dimensional extension of the multiscale dendritic needle network (DNN) model. This approach enables quantitative simulations of the unsteady dynamics of complex hierarchical networks in spatially extended dendritic arrays. We apply the model to directional solidification of Al-9.8 wt.%Si alloy and directly compare the model predictions with measurements from experiments with in situ x-ray imaging. We focus on the dynamical selection of primary spacings over a range of growth velocities, and the influence of sample geometry on the selection of spacings. Simulation results show good agreement with experiments. The computationally efficient DNN model opens new avenues for investigating the dynamics of large dendritic arrays at scales relevant to solidification experiments and processes.

Local Hotspots In The Gulf Of Maine: Spatial Overlap Between Dynamic Aggregations Of Primary Productivity And Fish Abundance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, M.

2016-02-01

Identification of biological hotspots may be a necessary step toward ecosystem-based management goals, as these often signal underlying processes that aggregate or stimulate resources in a particular location. However, previously used metrics to locate these hotspots are not easily adapted to local marine datasets, in part due to the high spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton populations. While most fish species in temperate regions are well adapted to the seasonal variability of phytoplankton abundance, it is the variability beyond this predictable pattern (i.e. anomalies) that may heavily impact the abundance and spatial distribution of organisms higher up the food chain. The objective of this study was to identify local-scale biological hotspots in a region in the western side of the Gulf of Maine using remote sensing chlorophyll-a data (from MERIS sensor), and to study the spatial overlap between these hotspots and high concentrations of fish abundance (derived from VTR dataset). For this reason, we defined a new hotspot metric that identified as a hotspot any area that consistently exhibited high-magnitude anomalies through time, a sign of highly dynamic communities. We improved on previous indices by minimizing the effect that different means and variances across space may have on the results, a situation that often occurs when comparing coastal and offshore systems. Results show a significant spatial correlation between pelagic fish abundance and aggregations of primary productivity. Spatial correlations were also significant between benthic fish abundance and primary productivity hotspots, but only during spring months. We argue that this new hotspot index compliments existing global measures as it helps managers understand the dynamic characteristics of a complex marine system. It also provides a unique metric that is easily compared across space and between different trophic levels, which may facilitate future ecosystem-wide studies.

Local Hotspots In The Gulf Of Maine: Spatial Overlap Between Dynamic Aggregations Of Primary Productivity And Fish Abundance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, M.

2016-12-01

Identification of biological hotspots may be a necessary step toward ecosystem-based management goals, as these often signal underlying processes that aggregate or stimulate resources in a particular location. However, previously used metrics to locate these hotspots are not easily adapted to local marine datasets, in part due to the high spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton populations. While most fish species in temperate regions are well adapted to the seasonal variability of phytoplankton abundance, it is the variability beyond this predictable pattern (i.e. anomalies) that may heavily impact the abundance and spatial distribution of organisms higher up the food chain. The objective of this study was to identify local-scale biological hotspots in a region in the western side of the Gulf of Maine using remote sensing chlorophyll-a data (from MERIS sensor), and to study the spatial overlap between these hotspots and high concentrations of fish abundance (derived from VTR dataset). For this reason, we defined a new hotspot metric that identified as a hotspot any area that consistently exhibited high-magnitude anomalies through time, a sign of highly dynamic communities. We improved on previous indices by minimizing the effect that different means and variances across space may have on the results, a situation that often occurs when comparing coastal and offshore systems. Results show a significant spatial correlation between pelagic fish abundance and aggregations of primary productivity. Spatial correlations were also significant between benthic fish abundance and primary productivity hotspots, but only during spring months. We argue that this new hotspot index compliments existing global measures as it helps managers understand the dynamic characteristics of a complex marine system. It also provides a unique metric that is easily compared across space and between different trophic levels, which may facilitate future ecosystem-wide studies.

Up, Down, and All Around: Scale-Dependent Spatial Variation in Rocky-Shore Communities of Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, Antarctica

PubMed Central

Valdivia, Nelson; Díaz, María J.; Holtheuer, Jorge; Garrido, Ignacio; Huovinen, Pirjo; Gómez, Iván

2014-01-01

Understanding the variation of biodiversity along environmental gradients and multiple spatial scales is relevant for theoretical and management purposes. Hereby, we analysed the spatial variability in diversity and structure of intertidal and subtidal macrobenthic Antarctic communities along vertical environmental stress gradients and across multiple horizontal spatial scales. Since biotic interactions and local topographic features are likely major factors for coastal assemblages, we tested the hypothesis that fine-scale processes influence the effects of the vertical environmental stress gradients on the macrobenthic diversity and structure. We used nested sampling designs in the intertidal and subtidal habitats, including horizontal spatial scales ranging from few centimetres to 1000s of metres along the rocky shore of Fildes Peninsula, King George Island. In both intertidal and subtidal habitats, univariate and multivariate analyses showed a marked vertical zonation in taxon richness and community structure. These patterns depended on the horizontal spatial scale of observation, as all analyses showed a significant interaction between height (or depth) and the finer spatial scale analysed. Variance and pseudo-variance components supported our prediction for taxon richness, community structure, and the abundance of dominant species such as the filamentous green alga Urospora penicilliformis (intertidal), the herbivore Nacella concinna (intertidal), the large kelp-like Himantothallus grandifolius (subtidal), and the red crustose red alga Lithothamnion spp. (subtidal). We suggest that in coastal ecosystems strongly governed by physical factors, fine-scale processes (e.g. biotic interactions and refugia availability) are still relevant for the structuring and maintenance of the local communities. The spatial patterns found in this study serve as a necessary benchmark to understand the dynamics and adaptation of natural assemblages in response to observed and predicted environmental changes in Antarctica. PMID:24956114

Ballistic-Failure Mechanisms in Gas Metal Arc Welds of Mil A46100 Armor-Grade Steel: A Computational Investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grujicic, M.; Snipes, J. S.; Galgalikar, R.; Ramaswami, S.; Yavari, R.; Yen, C.-F.; Cheeseman, B. A.

2014-09-01

In our recent work, a multi-physics computational model for the conventional gas metal arc welding (GMAW) joining process was introduced. The model is of a modular type and comprises five modules, each designed to handle a specific aspect of the GMAW process, i.e.: (i) electro-dynamics of the welding-gun; (ii) radiation-/convection-controlled heat transfer from the electric-arc to the workpiece and mass transfer from the filler-metal consumable electrode to the weld; (iii) prediction of the temporal evolution and the spatial distribution of thermal and mechanical fields within the weld region during the GMAW joining process; (iv) the resulting temporal evolution and spatial distribution of the material microstructure throughout the weld region; and (v) spatial distribution of the as-welded material mechanical properties. In the present work, the GMAW process model has been upgraded with respect to its predictive capabilities regarding the spatial distribution of the mechanical properties controlling the ballistic-limit (i.e., penetration-resistance) of the weld. The model is upgraded through the introduction of the sixth module in the present work in recognition of the fact that in thick steel GMAW weldments, the overall ballistic performance of the armor may become controlled by the (often inferior) ballistic limits of its weld (fusion and heat-affected) zones. To demonstrate the utility of the upgraded GMAW process model, it is next applied to the case of butt-welding of a prototypical high-hardness armor-grade martensitic steel, MIL A46100. The model predictions concerning the spatial distribution of the material microstructure and ballistic-limit-controlling mechanical properties within the MIL A46100 butt-weld are found to be consistent with prior observations and general expectations.

Optimization of Gas Metal Arc Welding (GMAW) Process for Maximum Ballistic Limit in MIL A46100 Steel Welded All-Metal Armor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grujicic, M.; Ramaswami, S.; Snipes, J. S.; Yavari, R.; Yen, C.-F.; Cheeseman, B. A.

2015-01-01

Our recently developed multi-physics computational model for the conventional gas metal arc welding (GMAW) joining process has been upgraded with respect to its predictive capabilities regarding the process optimization for the attainment of maximum ballistic limit within the weld. The original model consists of six modules, each dedicated to handling a specific aspect of the GMAW process, i.e., (a) electro-dynamics of the welding gun; (b) radiation-/convection-controlled heat transfer from the electric arc to the workpiece and mass transfer from the filler metal consumable electrode to the weld; (c) prediction of the temporal evolution and the spatial distribution of thermal and mechanical fields within the weld region during the GMAW joining process; (d) the resulting temporal evolution and spatial distribution of the material microstructure throughout the weld region; (e) spatial distribution of the as-welded material mechanical properties; and (f) spatial distribution of the material ballistic limit. In the present work, the model is upgraded through the introduction of the seventh module in recognition of the fact that identification of the optimum GMAW process parameters relative to the attainment of the maximum ballistic limit within the weld region entails the use of advanced optimization and statistical sensitivity analysis methods and tools. The upgraded GMAW process model is next applied to the case of butt welding of MIL A46100 (a prototypical high-hardness armor-grade martensitic steel) workpieces using filler metal electrodes made of the same material. The predictions of the upgraded GMAW process model pertaining to the spatial distribution of the material microstructure and ballistic limit-controlling mechanical properties within the MIL A46100 butt weld are found to be consistent with general expectations and prior observations.

Quantitative predictions of streamflow variability in the Susquehanna River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, R.; Boyer, E. W.; Leonard, L. N.; Duffy, C.; Schwarz, G. E.; Smith, R. A.

2012-12-01

Hydrologic researchers and water managers have increasingly sought an improved understanding of the major processes that control fluxes of water and solutes across diverse environmental settings and large spatial scales. Regional analyses of observed streamflow data have led to advances in our knowledge of relations among land use, climate, and streamflow, with methodologies ranging from statistical assessments of multiple monitoring sites to the regionalization of the parameters of catchment-scale mechanistic simulation models. However, gaps remain in our understanding of the best ways to transfer the knowledge of hydrologic response and governing processes among locations, including methods for regionalizing streamflow measurements and model predictions. We developed an approach to predict variations in streamflow using the SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) modeling infrastructure, with mechanistic functions, mass conservation constraints, and statistical estimation of regional and sub-regional parameters. We used the model to predict discharge in the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) under varying hydrological regimes that are representative of contemporary flow conditions. The resulting basin-scale water balance describes mean monthly flows in stream reaches throughout the entire SRB (represented at a 1:100,000 scale using the National Hydrologic Data network), with water supply and demand components that are inclusive of a range of hydrologic, climatic, and cultural properties (e.g., precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil and groundwater storage, runoff, baseflow, water use). We compare alternative models of varying complexity that reflect differences in the number and types of explanatory variables and functional expressions as well as spatial and temporal variability in the model parameters. Statistical estimation of the models reveals the levels of complexity that can be uniquely identified, subject to the information content and uncertainties of the hydrologic and climate measurements. Assessment of spatial variations in the model parameters and predictions provides an improved understanding of how much of the hydrologic response to land use, climate, and other properties is unique to specific locations versus more universally observed across catchments of the SRB. This approach advances understanding of water cycle variability at any location throughout the stream network, as a function of both landscape characteristics (e.g., soils, vegetation, land use) and external forcings (e.g., precipitation quantity and frequency). These improvements in predictions of streamflow dynamics will advance the ability to predict spatial and temporal variability in key solutes, such as nutrients, and their delivery to the Chesapeake Bay.

Facing the scaling problem: A multi-methodical approach to simulate soil erosion at hillslope and catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmengler, A. C.; Vlek, P. L. G.

2012-04-01

Modelling soil erosion requires a holistic understanding of the sediment dynamics in a complex environment. As most erosion models are scale-dependent and their parameterization is spatially limited, their application often requires special care, particularly in data-scarce environments. This study presents a hierarchical approach to overcome the limitations of a single model by using various quantitative methods and soil erosion models to cope with the issues of scale. At hillslope scale, the physically-based Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP)-model is used to simulate soil loss and deposition processes. Model simulations of soil loss vary between 5 to 50 t ha-1 yr-1 dependent on the spatial location on the hillslope and have only limited correspondence with the results of the 137Cs technique. These differences in absolute soil loss values could be either due to internal shortcomings of each approach or to external scale-related uncertainties. Pedo-geomorphological soil investigations along a catena confirm that estimations by the 137Cs technique are more appropriate in reflecting both the spatial extent and magnitude of soil erosion at hillslope scale. In order to account for sediment dynamics at a larger scale, the spatially-distributed WaTEM/SEDEM model is used to simulate soil erosion at catchment scale and to predict sediment delivery rates into a small water reservoir. Predicted sediment yield rates are compared with results gained from a bathymetric survey and sediment core analysis. Results show that specific sediment rates of 0.6 t ha-1 yr-1 by the model are in close agreement with observed sediment yield calculated from stratigraphical changes and downcore variations in 137Cs concentrations. Sediment erosion rates averaged over the entire catchment of 1 to 2 t ha-1 yr-1 are significantly lower than results obtained at hillslope scale confirming an inverse correlation between the magnitude of erosion rates and the spatial scale of the model. The study has shown that the use of multiple methods facilitates the calibration and validation of models and might provide a more accurate measure for soil erosion rates in ungauged catchments. Moreover, the approach could be used to identify the most appropriate working and operational scales for soil erosion modelling.

Information Technology Implementation and Sustainment Model: Data Collection Instrument

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-03-01

users (Wing and Bettinger , 2003). A GIS is a computerized system for spatial (geographically-referenced) data management (Davis and Schultz, 1990:3...AFIT/GEM/ENV/05M-15 Abstract The goal of this research was to develop a data collection instrument for an existing information technology...implementation and sustsinment model. In 2003, a unique system dynamics model was developed at the Air Force Institute of Technology to predict the

Evidence that implicit assumptions of ‘no evolution’ of disease vectors in changing environments can be violated on a rapid timescale

PubMed Central

Egizi, Andrea; Fefferman, Nina H.; Fonseca, Dina M.

2015-01-01

Projected impacts of climate change on vector-borne disease dynamics must consider many variables relevant to hosts, vectors and pathogens, including how altered environmental characteristics might affect the spatial distributions of vector species. However, many predictive models for vector distributions consider their habitat requirements to be fixed over relevant time-scales, when they may actually be capable of rapid evolutionary change and even adaptation. We examine the genetic signature of a spatial expansion by an invasive vector into locations with novel temperature conditions compared to its native range as a proxy for how existing vector populations may respond to temporally changing habitat. Specifically, we compare invasions into different climate ranges and characterize the importance of selection from the invaded habitat. We demonstrate that vector species can exhibit evolutionary responses (altered allelic frequencies) to a temperature gradient in as little as 7–10 years even in the presence of high gene flow, and further, that this response varies depending on the strength of selection. We interpret these findings in the context of climate change predictions for vector populations and emphasize the importance of incorporating vector evolution into models of future vector-borne disease dynamics. PMID:25688024

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations and Bioactivity in the Hyporheic Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeder, W. Jeffery; Quick, Annika M.; Farrell, Tiffany B.; Benner, Shawn G.; Feris, Kevin P.; Tonina, Daniele

2018-03-01

Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations and consumption rates are primary indicators of heterotrophic respiration and redox conditions in the hyporheic zone (HZ). Due to the complexity of hyporheic flow and interactions between hyporheic hydraulics and the biogeochemical processes, a detailed, mechanistic, and predictive understanding of the biogeochemical activity in the HZ has not yet been developed. Previous studies of microbial activity in the HZ have treated the metabolic DO consumption rate constant (KDO) as a temporally fixed and spatially homogeneous property that is determined primarily by the concentration of bioavailable carbon. These studies have generally treated bioactivity as temporally steady state, failing to capture the temporal dynamics of a changeable system. We demonstrate that hyporheic hydraulics controls rate constants in a hyporheic system that is relatively abundant in bioavailable carbon, such that KDO is a linear function of the local downwelling flux. We further demonstrate that, for triangular dunes, the downwelling velocities are lognormally distributed, as are the KDO values. By comparing measured and modeled DO profiles, we demonstrate that treating KDO as a function of the downwelling flux yields a significant improvement in the accuracy of predicted DO profiles. Additionally, our results demonstrate the temporal effect of carbon consumption on microbial respiration rates.

Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bushuk, Mitchell; Msadek, Rym; Winton, Michael; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Gudgel, Rich; Rosati, Anthony; Yang, Xiaosong

2017-05-01

Recent Arctic sea ice seasonal prediction efforts and forecast skill assessments have primarily focused on pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE). In this work, we move toward stakeholder-relevant spatial scales, investigating the regional forecast skill of Arctic sea ice in a Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) seasonal prediction system. Using a suite of retrospective initialized forecasts spanning 1981-2015 made with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land model, we show that predictions of detrended regional SIE are skillful at lead times up to 11 months. Regional prediction skill is highly region and target month dependent and generically exceeds the skill of an anomaly persistence forecast. We show for the first time that initializing the ocean subsurface in a seasonal prediction system can yield significant regional skill for winter SIE. Similarly, as suggested by previous work, we find that sea ice thickness initial conditions provide a crucial source of skill for regional summer SIE.

Evaluation of Spatially Targeted Strategies to Control Non-Domiciliated Triatoma dimidiata Vector of Chagas Disease

PubMed Central

Barbu, Corentin; Dumonteil, Eric; Gourbière, Sébastien

2011-01-01

Background Chagas disease is a major neglected tropical disease with deep socio-economical effects throughout Central and South America. Vector control programs have consistently reduced domestic populations of triatomine vectors, but non-domiciliated vectors still have to be controlled efficiently. Designing control strategies targeting these vectors is challenging, as it requires a quantitative description of the spatio-temporal dynamics of village infestation, which can only be gained from combinations of extensive field studies and spatial population dynamic modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings A spatially explicit population dynamic model was combined with a two-year field study of T. dimidiata infestation dynamics in the village of Teya, Mexico. The parameterized model fitted and predicted accurately both intra-annual variation and the spatial gradient in vector abundance. Five different control strategies were then applied in concentric rings to mimic spatial design targeting the periphery of the village, where vectors were most abundant. Indoor insecticide spraying and insect screens reduced vector abundance by up to 80% (when applied to the whole village), and half of this effect was obtained when control was applied only to the 33% of households closest to the village periphery. Peri-domicile cleaning was able to eliminate up to 60% of the vectors, but at the periphery of the village it has a low effect, as it is ineffective against sylvatic insects. The use of lethal traps and the management of house attractiveness provided similar levels of control. However this required either house attractiveness to be null, or ≥5 lethal traps, at least as attractive as houses, to be installed in each household. Conclusion/Significance Insecticide and insect screens used in houses at the periphery of the village can contribute to reduce house infestation in more central untreated zones. However, this beneficial effect remains insufficient to allow for a unique spatially targeted strategy to offer protection to all households. Most efficiently, control should combine the use of insect screens in outer zones to reduce infestation by both sylvatic and peri-domiciliated vectors, and cleaning of peri-domicile in the centre of the village where sylvatic vectors are absent. The design of such spatially mixed strategies of control offers a promising avenue to reduce the economic cost associated with the control of non-domiciliated vectors. PMID:21610862

Continental-scale, data-driven predictive assessment of eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, in sub-Saharan Africa by 2020.

PubMed

Michael, Edwin; Singh, Brajendra K; Mayala, Benjamin K; Smith, Morgan E; Hampton, Scott; Nabrzyski, Jaroslaw

2017-09-27

There are growing demands for predicting the prospects of achieving the global elimination of neglected tropical diseases as a result of the institution of large-scale nation-wide intervention programs by the WHO-set target year of 2020. Such predictions will be uncertain due to the impacts that spatial heterogeneity and scaling effects will have on parasite transmission processes, which will introduce significant aggregation errors into any attempt aiming to predict the outcomes of interventions at the broader spatial levels relevant to policy making. We describe a modeling platform that addresses this problem of upscaling from local settings to facilitate predictions at regional levels by the discovery and use of locality-specific transmission models, and we illustrate the utility of using this approach to evaluate the prospects for eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in sub-Saharan Africa by the WHO target year of 2020 using currently applied or newly proposed intervention strategies. METHODS AND RESULTS: We show how a computational platform that couples site-specific data discovery with model fitting and calibration can allow both learning of local LF transmission models and simulations of the impact of interventions that take a fuller account of the fine-scale heterogeneous transmission of this parasitic disease within endemic countries. We highlight how such a spatially hierarchical modeling tool that incorporates actual data regarding the roll-out of national drug treatment programs and spatial variability in infection patterns into the modeling process can produce more realistic predictions of timelines to LF elimination at coarse spatial scales, ranging from district to country to continental levels. Our results show that when locally applicable extinction thresholds are used, only three countries are likely to meet the goal of LF elimination by 2020 using currently applied mass drug treatments, and that switching to more intensive drug regimens, increasing the frequency of treatments, or switching to new triple drug regimens will be required if LF elimination is to be accelerated in Africa. The proportion of countries that would meet the goal of eliminating LF by 2020 may, however, reach up to 24/36 if the WHO 1% microfilaremia prevalence threshold is used and sequential mass drug deliveries are applied in countries. We have developed and applied a data-driven spatially hierarchical computational platform that uses the discovery of locally applicable transmission models in order to predict the prospects for eliminating the macroparasitic disease, LF, at the coarser country level in sub-Saharan Africa. We show that fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in local parasite transmission and extinction dynamics, as well as the exact nature of intervention roll-outs in countries, will impact the timelines to achieving national LF elimination on this continent.

Initiation and dynamics of a spiral wave around an ionic heterogeneity in a model for human cardiac tissue.

PubMed

Defauw, Arne; Dawyndt, Peter; Panfilov, Alexander V

2013-12-01

In relation to cardiac arrhythmias, heterogeneity of cardiac tissue is one of the most important factors underlying the onset of spiral waves and determining their type. In this paper, we numerically model heterogeneity of realistic size and value and study formation and dynamics of spiral waves around such heterogeneity. We find that the only sustained pattern obtained is a single spiral wave anchored around the heterogeneity. Dynamics of an anchored spiral wave depend on the extent of heterogeneity, and for certain heterogeneity size, we find abrupt regional increase in the period of excitation occurring as a bifurcation. We study factors determining spatial distribution of excitation periods of anchored spiral waves and discuss consequences of such dynamics for cardiac arrhythmias and possibilities for experimental testings of our predictions.

Wake-Driven Dynamics of Finite-Sized Buoyant Spheres in Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathai, Varghese; Prakash, Vivek N.; Brons, Jon; Sun, Chao; Lohse, Detlef

2015-09-01

Particles suspended in turbulent flows are affected by the turbulence and at the same time act back on the flow. The resulting coupling can give rise to rich variability in their dynamics. Here we report experimental results from an investigation of finite-sized buoyant spheres in turbulence. We find that even a marginal reduction in the particle's density from that of the fluid can result in strong modification of its dynamics. In contrast to classical spatial filtering arguments and predictions of particle models, we find that the particle acceleration variance increases with size. We trace this reversed trend back to the growing contribution from wake-induced forces, unaccounted for in current particle models in turbulence. Our findings highlight the need for improved multiphysics based models that account for particle wake effects for a faithful representation of buoyant-sphere dynamics in turbulence.

Do resting brain dynamics predict oddball evoked-potential?

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The oddball paradigm is widely applied to the investigation of cognitive function in neuroscience and in neuropsychiatry. Whether cortical oscillation in the resting state can predict the elicited oddball event-related potential (ERP) is still not clear. This study explored the relationship between resting electroencephalography (EEG) and oddball ERPs. The regional powers of 18 electrodes across delta, theta, alpha and beta frequencies were correlated with the amplitude and latency of N1, P2, N2 and P3 components of oddball ERPs. A multivariate analysis based on partial least squares (PLS) was applied to further examine the spatial pattern revealed by multiple correlations. Results Higher synchronization in the resting state, especially at the alpha spectrum, is associated with higher neural responsiveness and faster neural propagation, as indicated by the higher amplitude change of N1/N2 and shorter latency of P2. None of the resting quantitative EEG indices predict P3 latency and amplitude. The PLS analysis confirms that the resting cortical dynamics which explains N1/N2 amplitude and P2 latency does not show regional specificity, indicating a global property of the brain. Conclusions This study differs from previous approaches by relating dynamics in the resting state to neural responsiveness in the activation state. Our analyses suggest that the neural characteristics carried by resting brain dynamics modulate the earlier/automatic stage of target detection. PMID:22114868

Ecohydrologic role of solar radiation on landscape evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yetemen, Omer; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Flores-Cervantes, J. Homero; Vivoni, Enrique R.; Bras, Rafael L.

2015-02-01

Solar radiation has a clear signature on the spatial organization of ecohydrologic fluxes, vegetation patterns and dynamics, and landscape morphology in semiarid ecosystems. Existing landscape evolution models (LEMs) do not explicitly consider spatially explicit solar radiation as model forcing. Here, we improve an existing LEM to represent coupled processes of energy, water, and sediment balance for semiarid fluvial catchments. To ground model predictions, a study site is selected in central New Mexico where hillslope aspect has a marked influence on vegetation patterns and landscape morphology. Model predictions are corroborated using limited field observations in central NM and other locations with similar conditions. We design a set of comparative LEM simulations to investigate the role of spatially explicit solar radiation on landscape ecohydro-geomorphic development under different uplift scenarios. Aspect-control and network-control are identified as the two main drivers of soil moisture and vegetation organization on the landscape. Landscape-scale and long-term implications of these short-term ecohdrologic patterns emerged in modeled landscapes. As north facing slopes (NFS) get steeper by continuing uplift they support erosion-resistant denser vegetation cover which leads to further slope steepening until erosion and uplift attains a dynamic equilibrium. Conversely, on south facing slopes (SFS), as slopes grow with uplift, increased solar radiation exposure with slope supports sparser biomass and shallower slopes. At the landscape scale, these differential erosion processes lead to asymmetric development of catchment forms, consistent with regional observations. Understanding of ecohydrogeomorphic evolution will improve to assess the impacts of past and future climates on landscape response and morphology.

Quality of a fished resource: Assessing spatial and temporal dynamics

PubMed Central

Lorda, Julio; Shears, Nick T.; Ben-Horin, Tal; Toseland, Rebecca E.; Rathbone, Sarah T.; Rudie, Dave; Gaines, Steven D.

2018-01-01

Understanding spatio-temporal variability in the demography of harvested species is essential to improve sustainability, especially if there is large geographic variation in demography. Reproductive patterns commonly vary spatially, which is particularly important for management of “roe”-based fisheries, since profits depend on both the number and reproductive condition of individuals. The red sea urchin, Mesocentrotus franciscanus, is harvested in California for its roe (gonad), which is sold to domestic and international sushi markets. The primary driver of price within this multi-million-dollar industry is gonad quality. A relatively simple measure of the fraction of the body mass that is gonad, the gonadosomatic index (GSI), provides important insight into the ecological and environmental factors associated with variability in reproductive quality, and hence value within the industry. We identified the seasonality of the reproductive cycle and determined whether it varied within a heavily fished region. We found that fishermen were predictable both temporally and spatially in collecting urchins according to the reproductive dynamics of urchins. We demonstrated the use of red sea urchin GSI as a simple, quantitative tool to predict quality, effort, landings, price, and value of the fishery. We found that current management is not effectively realizing some objectives for the southern California fishery, since the reproductive cycle does not match the cycle in northern California, where these management guidelines were originally shaped. Although regulations may not be meeting initial management goals, the scheme may in fact provide conservation benefits by curtailing effort during part of the high-quality fishing season right before spawning. PMID:29874229

Optimising Habitat-Based Models for Wide-Ranging Marine Predators: Scale Matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scales, K. L.; Hazen, E. L.; Jacox, M.; Edwards, C. A.; Bograd, S. J.

2016-12-01

Predicting the responses of marine top predators to dynamic oceanographic conditions requires habitat-based models that sufficiently capture environmental preferences. Spatial resolution and temporal averaging of environmental data layers is a key aspect of model construction. The utility of surfaces contemporaneous to animal movement (e.g. daily, weekly), versus synoptic products (monthly, seasonal, climatological) is currently under debate, as is the optimal spatial resolution for predictive products. Using movement simulations with built-in environmental preferences (correlated random walks, multi-state hidden Markov-type models) together with modeled (Regional Oceanographic Modeling System, ROMS) and remotely-sensed (MODIS-Aqua) datasets, we explored the effects of degrading environmental surfaces (3km - 1 degree, daily - climatological) on model inference. We simulated the movements of a hypothetical wide-ranging marine predator through the California Current system over a three month period (May-June-July), based on metrics derived from previously published blue whale Balaenoptera musculus tracking studies. Results indicate that models using seasonal or climatological data fields can overfit true environmental preferences, in both presence-absence and behaviour-based model formulations. Moreover, the effects of a degradation in spatial resolution are more pronounced when using temporally averaged fields than when using daily, weekly or monthly datasets. In addition, we observed a notable divergence between the `best' models selected using common methods (e.g. AUC, AICc) and those that most accurately reproduced built-in environmental preferences. These findings have important implications for conservation and management of marine mammals, seabirds, sharks, sea turtles and large teleost fish, particularly in implementing dynamic ocean management initiatives and in forecasting responses to future climate-mediated ecosystem change.

Optimising Habitat-Based Models for Wide-Ranging Marine Predators: Scale Matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scales, K. L.; Hazen, E. L.; Jacox, M.; Edwards, C. A.; Bograd, S. J.

2016-02-01

Predicting the responses of marine top predators to dynamic oceanographic conditions requires habitat-based models that sufficiently capture environmental preferences. Spatial resolution and temporal averaging of environmental data layers is a key aspect of model construction. The utility of surfaces contemporaneous to animal movement (e.g. daily, weekly), versus synoptic products (monthly, seasonal, climatological) is currently under debate, as is the optimal spatial resolution for predictive products. Using movement simulations with built-in environmental preferences (correlated random walks, multi-state hidden Markov-type models) together with modeled (Regional Oceanographic Modeling System, ROMS) and remotely-sensed (MODIS-Aqua) datasets, we explored the effects of degrading environmental surfaces (3km - 1 degree, daily - climatological) on model inference. We simulated the movements of a hypothetical wide-ranging marine predator through the California Current system over a three month period (May-June-July), based on metrics derived from previously published blue whale Balaenoptera musculus tracking studies. Results indicate that models using seasonal or climatological data fields can overfit true environmental preferences, in both presence-absence and behaviour-based model formulations. Moreover, the effects of a degradation in spatial resolution are more pronounced when using temporally averaged fields than when using daily, weekly or monthly datasets. In addition, we observed a notable divergence between the `best' models selected using common methods (e.g. AUC, AICc) and those that most accurately reproduced built-in environmental preferences. These findings have important implications for conservation and management of marine mammals, seabirds, sharks, sea turtles and large teleost fish, particularly in implementing dynamic ocean management initiatives and in forecasting responses to future climate-mediated ecosystem change.

Local disturbance cycles and the maintenance of heterogeneity across scales in marine metapopulations.

PubMed

Gouhier, Tarik C; Guichard, Frédéric

2007-03-01

In marine systems, the occurrence and implications of disturbance-recovery cycles have been revealed at the landscape level, but only in demographically open or closed systems where landscape-level dynamics are assumed to have no feedback effect on regional dynamics. We present a mussel metapopulation model to elucidate the role of landscape-level disturbance cycles for regional response of mussel populations to onshore productivity and larval transport. Landscape dynamics are generated through spatially explicit rules, and each landscape is connected to its neighbor through unidirectional larval dispersal. The role of landscape disturbance cycles in the regional system behavior is elucidated (1) in demographically open vs. demographically coupled systems, in relation to (2) onshore reproductive output and (3) the temporal scale of landscape disturbance dynamics. By controlling for spatial structure at the landscape and metapopulation levels, we first demonstrate the interaction between landscape and oceanographic connectivity. The temporal scale of disturbance cycles, as controlled by mussel colonization rate, plays a critical role in the regional behavior of the system. Indeed, fast disturbance cycles are responsible for regional synchrony in relation to onshore reproductive output. Slow disturbance cycles, however, lead to increased robustness to changes in productivity and to demographic coupling. These testable predictions indicate that the occurrence and temporal scale of local disturbance-recovery dynamics can drive large-scale variability in demographically open systems, and the response of metapopulations to changes in nearshore productivity.

Nocturnal Near-Surface Temperature, but not Flow Dynamics, can be Predicted by Microtopography in a Mid-Range Mountain Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfister, Lena; Sigmund, Armin; Olesch, Johannes; Thomas, Christoph K.

2017-11-01

We investigate nocturnal flow dynamics and temperature behaviour near the surface of a 170-m long gentle slope in a mid-range mountain valley. In contrast to many existing studies focusing on locations with significant topographic variations, gentle slopes cover a greater spatial extent of the Earth's surface. Air temperatures were measured using the high-resolution distributed-temperature-sensing method within a two-dimensional fibre-optic array in the lowest metre above the surface. The main objectives are to characterize the spatio-temporal patterns in the near-surface temperature and flow dynamics, and quantify their responses to the microtopography and land cover. For the duration of the experiment, including even clear-sky nights with weak winds and strong radiative forcing, the classical cold-air drainage predicted by theory could not be detected. In contrast, we show that the airflow for the two dominant flow modes originates non-locally. The most abundant flow mode is characterized by vertically-decoupled layers featuring a near-surface flow perpendicular to the slope and strong stable stratification, which contradicts the expectation of a gravity-driven downslope flow of locally produced cold air. Differences in microtopography and land cover clearly affect spatio-temporal temperature perturbations. The second most abundant flow mode is characterized by strong mixing, leading to vertical coupling with airflow directed down the local slope. Here variations of microtopography and land cover lead to negligible near-surface temperature perturbations. We conclude that spatio-temporal temperature perturbations, but not flow dynamics, can be predicted by microtopography, which complicates the prediction of advective-heat components and the existence and dynamics of cold-air pools in gently sloped terrain in the absence of observations.

An online spatiotemporal prediction model for dengue fever epidemic in Kaohsiung (Taiwan).

PubMed

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Angulo, José M; Cheng, Ming-Hung; Wu, Jiaping; Christakos, George

2014-05-01

The emergence and re-emergence of disease epidemics is a complex question that may be influenced by diverse factors, including the space-time dynamics of human populations, environmental conditions, and associated uncertainties. This study proposes a stochastic framework to integrate space-time dynamics in the form of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, together with uncertain disease observations, into a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) framework. The resulting model (BME-SIR) can be used to predict space-time disease spread. Specifically, it was applied to obtain a space-time prediction of the dengue fever (DF) epidemic that took place in Kaohsiung City (Taiwan) during 2002. In implementing the model, the SIR parameters were continually updated and information on new cases of infection was incorporated. The results obtained show that the proposed model is rigorous to user-specified initial values of unknown model parameters, that is, transmission and recovery rates. In general, this model provides a good characterization of the spatial diffusion of the DF epidemic, especially in the city districts proximal to the location of the outbreak. Prediction performance may be affected by various factors, such as virus serotypes and human intervention, which can change the space-time dynamics of disease diffusion. The proposed BME-SIR disease prediction model can provide government agencies with a valuable reference for the timely identification, control, and prevention of DF spread in space and time. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Soil organic matter dynamics and CO2 fluxes in relation to landscape scale processes: linking process understanding to regional scale carbon mass-balances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Oost, Kristof; Nadeu, Elisabet; Wiaux, François; Wang, Zhengang; Stevens, François; Vanclooster, Marnik; Tran, Anh; Bogaert, Patrick; Doetterl, Sebastian; Lambot, Sébastien; Van wesemael, Bas

2014-05-01

In this paper, we synthesize the main outcomes of a collaborative project (2009-2014) initiated at the UCL (Belgium). The main objective of the project was to increase our understanding of soil organic matter dynamics in complex landscapes and use this to improve predictions of regional scale soil carbon balances. In a first phase, the project characterized the emergent spatial variability in soil organic matter storage and key soil properties at the regional scale. Based on the integration of remote sensing, geomorphological and soil analysis techniques, we quantified the temporal and spatial variability of soil carbon stock and pool distribution at the local and regional scales. This work showed a linkage between lateral fluxes of C in relation with sediment transport and the spatial variation in carbon storage at multiple spatial scales. In a second phase, the project focused on characterizing key controlling factors and process interactions at the catena scale. In-situ experiments of soil CO2 respiration showed that the soil carbon response at the catena scale was spatially heterogeneous and was mainly controlled by the catenary variation of soil physical attributes (soil moisture, temperature, C quality). The hillslope scale characterization relied on advanced hydrogeophysical techniques such as GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar), EMI (Electromagnetic induction), ERT (Electrical Resistivity Tomography), and geophysical inversion and data mining tools. Finally, we report on the integration of these insights into a coupled and spatially explicit model and its application. Simulations showed that C stocks and redistribution of mass and energy fluxes are closely coupled, they induce structured spatial and temporal patterns with non negligible attached uncertainties. We discuss the main outcomes of these activities in relation to sink-source behavior and relevance of erosion processes for larger-scale C budgets.

Emergence, spread, persistence and fade-out of sylvatic plague in Kazakhstan

PubMed Central

Heier, Lise; Storvik, Geir O.; Davis, Stephen A.; Viljugrein, Hildegunn; Ageyev, Vladimir S.; Klassovskaya, Evgeniya; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2011-01-01

Predicting the dynamics of zoonoses in wildlife is important not only for prevention of transmission to humans, but also for improving the general understanding of epidemiological processes. A large dataset on sylvatic plague in the Pre-Balkhash area of Kazakhstan (collected for surveillance purposes) provides a rare opportunity for detailed statistical modelling of an infectious disease. Previous work using these data has revealed a host abundance threshold for epizootics, and climatic influences on plague prevalence. Here, we present a model describing the local space–time dynamics of the disease at a spatial scale of 20 × 20 km2 and a biannual temporal scale, distinguishing between invasion and persistence events. We used a Bayesian imputation method to account for uncertainties resulting from poor data in explanatory variables and response variables. Spatial autocorrelation in the data was accounted for in imputations and analyses through random effects. The results show (i) a clear effect of spatial transmission, (ii) a high probability of persistence compared with invasion, and (iii) a stronger influence of rodent abundance on invasion than on persistence. In particular, there was a substantial probability of persistence also at low host abundance. PMID:21345866

Mathematical modelling methodologies in predictive food microbiology: a SWOT analysis.

PubMed

Ferrer, Jordi; Prats, Clara; López, Daniel; Vives-Rego, Josep

2009-08-31

Predictive microbiology is the area of food microbiology that attempts to forecast the quantitative evolution of microbial populations over time. This is achieved to a great extent through models that include the mechanisms governing population dynamics. Traditionally, the models used in predictive microbiology are whole-system continuous models that describe population dynamics by means of equations applied to extensive or averaged variables of the whole system. Many existing models can be classified by specific criteria. We can distinguish between survival and growth models by seeing whether they tackle mortality or cell duplication. We can distinguish between empirical (phenomenological) models, which mathematically describe specific behaviour, and theoretical (mechanistic) models with a biological basis, which search for the underlying mechanisms driving already observed phenomena. We can also distinguish between primary, secondary and tertiary models, by examining their treatment of the effects of external factors and constraints on the microbial community. Recently, the use of spatially explicit Individual-based Models (IbMs) has spread through predictive microbiology, due to the current technological capacity of performing measurements on single individual cells and thanks to the consolidation of computational modelling. Spatially explicit IbMs are bottom-up approaches to microbial communities that build bridges between the description of micro-organisms at the cell level and macroscopic observations at the population level. They provide greater insight into the mesoscale phenomena that link unicellular and population levels. Every model is built in response to a particular question and with different aims. Even so, in this research we conducted a SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the different approaches (population continuous modelling and Individual-based Modelling), which we hope will be helpful for current and future researchers.

Stochastic dynamics of penetrable rods in one dimension: occupied volume and spatial order.

PubMed

Craven, Galen T; Popov, Alexander V; Hernandez, Rigoberto

2013-06-28

The occupied volume of a penetrable hard rod (HR) system in one dimension is probed through the use of molecular dynamics simulations. In these dynamical simulations, collisions between penetrable rods are governed by a stochastic penetration algorithm (SPA), which allows for rods to either interpenetrate with a probability δ, or collide elastically otherwise. The limiting values of this parameter, δ = 0 and δ = 1, correspond to the HR and the ideal limits, respectively. At intermediate values, 0 < δ < 1, mixing of mutually exclusive and independent events is observed, making prediction of the occupied volume nontrivial. At high hard core volume fractions φ0, the occupied volume expression derived by Rikvold and Stell [J. Chem. Phys. 82, 1014 (1985)] for permeable systems does not accurately predict the occupied volume measured from the SPA simulations. Multi-body effects contribute significantly to the pair correlation function g2(r) and the simplification by Rikvold and Stell that g2(r) = δ in the penetrative region is observed to be inaccurate for the SPA model. We find that an integral over the penetrative region of g2(r) is the principal quantity that describes the particle overlap ratios corresponding to the observed penetration probabilities. Analytic formulas are developed to predict the occupied volume of mixed systems and agreement is observed between these theoretical predictions and the results measured from simulation.

Models of Eucalypt phenology predict bat population flux.

PubMed

Giles, John R; Plowright, Raina K; Eby, Peggy; Peel, Alison J; McCallum, Hamish

2016-10-01

Fruit bats (Pteropodidae) have received increased attention after the recent emergence of notable viral pathogens of bat origin. Their vagility hinders data collection on abundance and distribution, which constrains modeling efforts and our understanding of bat ecology, viral dynamics, and spillover. We addressed this knowledge gap with models and data on the occurrence and abundance of nectarivorous fruit bat populations at 3 day roosts in southeast Queensland. We used environmental drivers of nectar production as predictors and explored relationships between bat abundance and virus spillover. Specifically, we developed several novel modeling tools motivated by complexities of fruit bat foraging ecology, including: (1) a dataset of spatial variables comprising Eucalypt-focused vegetation indices, cumulative precipitation, and temperature anomaly; (2) an algorithm that associated bat population response with spatial covariates in a spatially and temporally relevant way given our current understanding of bat foraging behavior; and (3) a thorough statistical learning approach to finding optimal covariate combinations. We identified covariates that classify fruit bat occupancy at each of our three study roosts with 86-93% accuracy. Negative binomial models explained 43-53% of the variation in observed abundance across roosts. Our models suggest that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in Eucalypt-based food resources could drive at least 50% of bat population behavior at the landscape scale. We found that 13 spillover events were observed within the foraging range of our study roosts, and they occurred during times when models predicted low population abundance. Our results suggest that, in southeast Queensland, spillover may not be driven by large aggregations of fruit bats attracted by nectar-based resources, but rather by behavior of smaller resident subpopulations. Our models and data integrated remote sensing and statistical learning to make inferences on bat ecology and disease dynamics. This work provides a foundation for further studies on landscape-scale population movement and spatiotemporal disease dynamics.

An integrated assessment of soil erosion dynamics with special emphasis on gully erosion: Case studies from South Africa and Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maerker, Michael; Sommer, Christian; Zakerinejad, Reza; Cama, Elena

2017-04-01

Soil erosion by water is a significant problem in arid and semi arid areas of large parts of Iran. Water erosion is one of the most effective phenomena that leads to decreasing soil productivity and pollution of water resources. Especially in semiarid areas like in the Mazayjan watershed in the Southwestern Fars province as well as in the Mkomazi catchment in Kwa Zulu Natal, South Africa, gully erosion contributes to the sediment dynamics in a significant way. Consequently, the intention of this research is to identify the different types of soil erosion processes acting in the area with a stochastic approach and to assess the process dynamics in an integrative way. Therefore, we applied GIS, and satellite image analysis techniques to derive input information for the numeric models. For sheet and rill erosion the Unit Stream Power-based Erosion Deposition Model (USPED) was utilized. The spatial distribution of gully erosion was assessed using a statistical approach which used three variables (stream power index, slope, and flow accumulation) to predict the spatial distribution of gullies in the study area. The eroded gully volumes were estimated for a multiple years period by fieldwork and Google Earth high resolution images as well as with structure for motion algorithm. Finally, the gully retreat rates were integrated into the USPED model. The results show that the integration of the SPI approach to quantify gully erosion with the USPED model is a suitable method to qualitatively and quantitatively assess water erosion processes in data scarce areas. The application of GIS and stochastic model approaches to spatialize the USPED model input yield valuable results for the prediction of soil erosion in the test areas. The results of this research help to develop an appropriate management of soil and water resources in the study areas.

Epidemic patch models applied to pandemic influenza: contact matrix, stochasticity, robustness of predictions.

PubMed

Lunelli, Antonella; Pugliese, Andrea; Rizzo, Caterina

2009-07-01

Due to the recent emergence of H5N1 virus, the modelling of pandemic influenza has become a relevant issue. Here we present an SEIR model formulated to simulate a possible outbreak in Italy, analysing its structure and, more generally, the effect of including specific details into a model. These details regard population heterogeneities, such as age and spatial distribution, as well as stochasticity, that regulates the epidemic dynamics when the number of infectives is low. We discuss and motivate the specific modelling choices made when building the model and investigate how the model details influence the predicted dynamics. Our analysis may help in deciding which elements of complexity are worth including in the design of a deterministic model for pandemic influenza, in a balance between, on the one hand, keeping the model computationally efficient and the number of parameters low and, on the other hand, maintaining the necessary realistic features.

Vlasov dynamics of periodically driven systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Soumyadip; Shah, Kushal

2018-04-01

Analytical solutions of the Vlasov equation for periodically driven systems are of importance in several areas of plasma physics and dynamical systems and are usually approximated using ponderomotive theory. In this paper, we derive the plasma distribution function predicted by ponderomotive theory using Hamiltonian averaging theory and compare it with solutions obtained by the method of characteristics. Our results show that though ponderomotive theory is relatively much easier to use, its predictions are very restrictive and are likely to be very different from the actual distribution function of the system. We also analyse all possible initial conditions which lead to periodic solutions of the Vlasov equation for periodically driven systems and conjecture that the irreducible polynomial corresponding to the initial condition must only have squares of the spatial and momentum coordinate. The resulting distribution function for other initial conditions is aperiodic and can lead to complex relaxation processes within the plasma.

A comprehensive model of the spatio-temporal stem cell and tissue organisation in the intestinal crypt.

PubMed

Buske, Peter; Galle, Jörg; Barker, Nick; Aust, Gabriela; Clevers, Hans; Loeffler, Markus

2011-01-06

We introduce a novel dynamic model of stem cell and tissue organisation in murine intestinal crypts. Integrating the molecular, cellular and tissue level of description, this model links a broad spectrum of experimental observations encompassing spatially confined cell proliferation, directed cell migration, multiple cell lineage decisions and clonal competition.Using computational simulations we demonstrate that the model is capable of quantitatively describing and predicting the dynamic behaviour of the intestinal tissue during steady state as well as after cell damage and following selective gain or loss of gene function manipulations affecting Wnt- and Notch-signalling. Our simulation results suggest that reversibility and flexibility of cellular decisions are key elements of robust tissue organisation of the intestine. We predict that the tissue should be able to fully recover after complete elimination of cellular subpopulations including subpopulations deemed to be functional stem cells. This challenges current views of tissue stem cell organisation.

Modelling and predicting the spatial distribution of tree root density in heterogeneous forest ecosystems

PubMed Central

Mao, Zhun; Saint-André, Laurent; Bourrier, Franck; Stokes, Alexia; Cordonnier, Thomas

2015-01-01

Background and Aims In mountain ecosystems, predicting root density in three dimensions (3-D) is highly challenging due to the spatial heterogeneity of forest communities. This study presents a simple and semi-mechanistic model, named ChaMRoots, that predicts root interception density (RID, number of roots m–2). ChaMRoots hypothesizes that RID at a given point is affected by the presence of roots from surrounding trees forming a polygon shape. Methods The model comprises three sub-models for predicting: (1) the spatial heterogeneity – RID of the finest roots in the top soil layer as a function of tree basal area at breast height, and the distance between the tree and a given point; (2) the diameter spectrum – the distribution of RID as a function of root diameter up to 50 mm thick; and (3) the vertical profile – the distribution of RID as a function of soil depth. The RID data used for fitting in the model were measured in two uneven-aged mountain forest ecosystems in the French Alps. These sites differ in tree density and species composition. Key Results In general, the validation of each sub-model indicated that all sub-models of ChaMRoots had good fits. The model achieved a highly satisfactory compromise between the number of aerial input parameters and the fit to the observed data. Conclusions The semi-mechanistic ChaMRoots model focuses on the spatial distribution of root density at the tree cluster scale, in contrast to the majority of published root models, which function at the level of the individual. Based on easy-to-measure characteristics, simple forest inventory protocols and three sub-models, it achieves a good compromise between the complexity of the case study area and that of the global model structure. ChaMRoots can be easily coupled with spatially explicit individual-based forest dynamics models and thus provides a highly transferable approach for modelling 3-D root spatial distribution in complex forest ecosystems. PMID:26173892

Vision-based flight control in the hawkmoth Hyles lineata

PubMed Central

Windsor, Shane P.; Bomphrey, Richard J.; Taylor, Graham K.

2014-01-01

Vision is a key sensory modality for flying insects, playing an important role in guidance, navigation and control. Here, we use a virtual-reality flight simulator to measure the optomotor responses of the hawkmoth Hyles lineata, and use a published linear-time invariant model of the flight dynamics to interpret the function of the measured responses in flight stabilization and control. We recorded the forces and moments produced during oscillation of the visual field in roll, pitch and yaw, varying the temporal frequency, amplitude or spatial frequency of the stimulus. The moths’ responses were strongly dependent upon contrast frequency, as expected if the optomotor system uses correlation-type motion detectors to sense self-motion. The flight dynamics model predicts that roll angle feedback is needed to stabilize the lateral dynamics, and that a combination of pitch angle and pitch rate feedback is most effective in stabilizing the longitudinal dynamics. The moths’ responses to roll and pitch stimuli coincided qualitatively with these functional predictions. The moths produced coupled roll and yaw moments in response to yaw stimuli, which could help to reduce the energetic cost of correcting heading. Our results emphasize the close relationship between physics and physiology in the stabilization of insect flight. PMID:24335557

Genetic drift and selection in many-allele range expansions.

PubMed

Weinstein, Bryan T; Lavrentovich, Maxim O; Möbius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W; Nelson, David R

2017-12-01

We experimentally and numerically investigate the evolutionary dynamics of four competing strains of E. coli with differing expansion velocities in radially expanding colonies. We compare experimental measurements of the average fraction, correlation functions between strains, and the relative rates of genetic domain wall annihilations and coalescences to simulations modeling the population as a one-dimensional ring of annihilating and coalescing random walkers with deterministic biases due to selection. The simulations reveal that the evolutionary dynamics can be collapsed onto master curves governed by three essential parameters: (1) an expansion length beyond which selection dominates over genetic drift; (2) a characteristic angular correlation describing the size of genetic domains; and (3) a dimensionless constant quantifying the interplay between a colony's curvature at the frontier and its selection length scale. We measure these parameters with a new technique that precisely measures small selective differences between spatially competing strains and show that our simulations accurately predict the dynamics without additional fitting. Our results suggest that the random walk model can act as a useful predictive tool for describing the evolutionary dynamics of range expansions composed of an arbitrary number of genotypes with different fitnesses.

Vision-based flight control in the hawkmoth Hyles lineata.

PubMed

Windsor, Shane P; Bomphrey, Richard J; Taylor, Graham K

2014-02-06

Vision is a key sensory modality for flying insects, playing an important role in guidance, navigation and control. Here, we use a virtual-reality flight simulator to measure the optomotor responses of the hawkmoth Hyles lineata, and use a published linear-time invariant model of the flight dynamics to interpret the function of the measured responses in flight stabilization and control. We recorded the forces and moments produced during oscillation of the visual field in roll, pitch and yaw, varying the temporal frequency, amplitude or spatial frequency of the stimulus. The moths' responses were strongly dependent upon contrast frequency, as expected if the optomotor system uses correlation-type motion detectors to sense self-motion. The flight dynamics model predicts that roll angle feedback is needed to stabilize the lateral dynamics, and that a combination of pitch angle and pitch rate feedback is most effective in stabilizing the longitudinal dynamics. The moths' responses to roll and pitch stimuli coincided qualitatively with these functional predictions. The moths produced coupled roll and yaw moments in response to yaw stimuli, which could help to reduce the energetic cost of correcting heading. Our results emphasize the close relationship between physics and physiology in the stabilization of insect flight.

Collective stochastic coherence in recurrent neuronal networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sancristóbal, Belén; Rebollo, Beatriz; Boada, Pol; Sanchez-Vives, Maria V.; Garcia-Ojalvo, Jordi

2016-09-01

Recurrent networks of dynamic elements frequently exhibit emergent collective oscillations, which can show substantial regularity even when the individual elements are considerably noisy. How noise-induced dynamics at the local level coexists with regular oscillations at the global level is still unclear. Here we show that a combination of stochastic recurrence-based initiation with deterministic refractoriness in an excitable network can reconcile these two features, leading to maximum collective coherence for an intermediate noise level. We report this behaviour in the slow oscillation regime exhibited by a cerebral cortex network under dynamical conditions resembling slow-wave sleep and anaesthesia. Computational analysis of a biologically realistic network model reveals that an intermediate level of background noise leads to quasi-regular dynamics. We verify this prediction experimentally in cortical slices subject to varying amounts of extracellular potassium, which modulates neuronal excitability and thus synaptic noise. The model also predicts that this effectively regular state should exhibit noise-induced memory of the spatial propagation profile of the collective oscillations, which is also verified experimentally. Taken together, these results allow us to construe the high regularity observed experimentally in the brain as an instance of collective stochastic coherence.

Constructing the reduced dynamical models of interannual climate variability from spatial-distributed time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhin, Dmitry; Gavrilov, Andrey; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

2016-04-01

We suggest a method for empirical forecast of climate dynamics basing on the reconstruction of reduced dynamical models in a form of random dynamical systems [1,2] derived from observational time series. The construction of proper embedding - the set of variables determining the phase space the model works in - is no doubt the most important step in such a modeling, but this task is non-trivial due to huge dimension of time series of typical climatic fields. Actually, an appropriate expansion of observational time series is needed yielding the number of principal components considered as phase variables, which are to be efficient for the construction of low-dimensional evolution operator. We emphasize two main features the reduced models should have for capturing the main dynamical properties of the system: (i) taking into account time-lagged teleconnections in the atmosphere-ocean system and (ii) reflecting the nonlinear nature of these teleconnections. In accordance to these principles, in this report we present the methodology which includes the combination of a new way for the construction of an embedding by the spatio-temporal data expansion and nonlinear model construction on the basis of artificial neural networks. The methodology is aplied to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data including fields of sea level pressure, geopotential height, and wind speed, covering Northern Hemisphere. Its efficiency for the interannual forecast of various climate phenomena including ENSO, PDO, NAO and strong blocking event condition over the mid latitudes, is demonstrated. Also, we investigate the ability of the models to reproduce and predict the evolution of qualitative features of the dynamics, such as spectral peaks, critical transitions and statistics of extremes. This research was supported by the Government of the Russian Federation (Agreement No. 14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics RAS) [1] Y. I. Molkov, E. M. Loskutov, D. N. Mukhin, and A. M. Feigin, "Random dynamical models from time series," Phys. Rev. E, vol. 85, no. 3, p. 036216, 2012. [2] D. Mukhin, D. Kondrashov, E. Loskutov, A. Gavrilov, A. Feigin, and M. Ghil, "Predicting Critical Transitions in ENSO models. Part II: Spatially Dependent Models," J. Clim., vol. 28, no. 5, pp. 1962-1976, 2015.

Systems thinking in combating infectious diseases.

PubMed

Xia, Shang; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Liu, Jiming

2017-09-11

The transmission of infectious diseases is a dynamic process determined by multiple factors originating from disease pathogens and/or parasites, vector species, and human populations. These factors interact with each other and demonstrate the intrinsic mechanisms of the disease transmission temporally, spatially, and socially. In this article, we provide a comprehensive perspective, named as systems thinking, for investigating disease dynamics and associated impact factors, by means of emphasizing the entirety of a system's components and the complexity of their interrelated behaviors. We further develop the general steps for performing systems approach to tackling infectious diseases in the real-world settings, so as to expand our abilities to understand, predict, and mitigate infectious diseases.

Mechanistic, Mathematical Model to Predict the Dynamics of Tissue Genesis in Bone Defects via Mechanical Feedback and Mediation of Biochemical Factors

PubMed Central

Moore, Shannon R.; Saidel, Gerald M.; Knothe, Ulf; Knothe Tate, Melissa L.

2014-01-01

The link between mechanics and biology in the generation and the adaptation of bone has been well studied in context of skeletal development and fracture healing. Yet, the prediction of tissue genesis within - and the spatiotemporal healing of - postnatal defects, necessitates a quantitative evaluation of mechano-biological interactions using experimental and clinical parameters. To address this current gap in knowledge, this study aims to develop a mechanistic mathematical model of tissue genesis using bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) to represent of a class of factors that may coordinate bone healing. Specifically, we developed a mechanistic, mathematical model to predict the dynamics of tissue genesis by periosteal progenitor cells within a long bone defect surrounded by periosteum and stabilized via an intramedullary nail. The emergent material properties and mechanical environment associated with nascent tissue genesis influence the strain stimulus sensed by progenitor cells within the periosteum. Using a mechanical finite element model, periosteal surface strains are predicted as a function of emergent, nascent tissue properties. Strains are then input to a mechanistic mathematical model, where mechanical regulation of BMP-2 production mediates rates of cellular proliferation, differentiation and tissue production, to predict healing outcomes. A parametric approach enables the spatial and temporal prediction of endochondral tissue regeneration, assessed as areas of cartilage and mineralized bone, as functions of radial distance from the periosteum and time. Comparing model results to histological outcomes from two previous studies of periosteum-mediated bone regeneration in a common ovine model, it was shown that mechanistic models incorporating mechanical feedback successfully predict patterns (spatial) and trends (temporal) of bone tissue regeneration. The novel model framework presented here integrates a mechanistic feedback system based on the mechanosensitivity of periosteal progenitor cells, which allows for modeling and prediction of tissue regeneration on multiple length and time scales. Through combination of computational, physical and engineering science approaches, the model platform provides a means to test new hypotheses in silico and to elucidate conditions conducive to endogenous tissue genesis. Next generation models will serve to unravel intrinsic differences in bone genesis by endochondral and intramembranous mechanisms. PMID:24967742

A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McRae, B.H.; Schumaker, N.H.; McKane, R.B.; Busing, R.T.; Solomon, A.M.; Burdick, C.A.

2008-01-01

Reliable assessments of how human activities will affect wildlife populations are essential for making scientifically defensible resource management decisions. A principle challenge of predicting effects of proposed management, development, or conservation actions is the need to incorporate multiple biotic and abiotic factors, including land-use and climate change, that interact to affect wildlife habitat and populations through time. Here we demonstrate how models of land-use, climate change, and other dynamic factors can be integrated into a coherent framework for predicting wildlife population trends. Our framework starts with land-use and climate change models developed for a region of interest. Vegetation changes through time under alternative future scenarios are predicted using an individual-based plant community model. These predictions are combined with spatially explicit animal habitat models to map changes in the distribution and quality of wildlife habitat expected under the various scenarios. Animal population responses to habitat changes and other factors are then projected using a flexible, individual-based animal population model. As an example application, we simulated animal population trends under three future land-use scenarios and four climate change scenarios in the Cascade Range of western Oregon. We chose two birds with contrasting habitat preferences for our simulations: winter wrens (Troglodytes troglodytes), which are most abundant in mature conifer forests, and song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), which prefer more open, shrubby habitats. We used climate and land-use predictions from previously published studies, as well as previously published predictions of vegetation responses using FORCLIM, an individual-based forest dynamics simulator. Vegetation predictions were integrated with other factors in PATCH, a spatially explicit, individual-based animal population simulator. Through incorporating effects of landscape history and limited dispersal, our framework predicted population changes that typically exceeded those expected based on changes in mean habitat suitability alone. Although land-use had greater impacts on habitat quality than did climate change in our simulations, we found that small changes in vital rates resulting from climate change or other stressors can have large consequences for population trajectories. The ability to integrate bottom-up demographic processes like these with top-down constraints imposed by climate and land-use in a dynamic modeling environment is a key advantage of our approach. The resulting framework should allow researchers to synthesize existing empirical evidence, and to explore complex interactions that are difficult or impossible to capture through piecemeal modeling approaches. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Computational Fluid Dynamic Investigation of Loss Mechanisms in a Pulse-Tube Refrigerator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, K.; Esguerra, J.; Dodson, C.; Razani, A.

2015-12-01

In predicting Pulse-Tube Cryocooler (PTC) performance, One-Dimensional (1-D) PTR design and analysis tools such as Gedeon Associates SAGE® typically include models for performance degradation due to thermodynamically irreversible processes. SAGE®, in particular, accounts for convective loss, turbulent conductive loss and numerical diffusion “loss” via correlation functions based on analysis and empirical testing. In this study, we compare CFD and SAGE® estimates of PTR refrigeration performance for four distinct pulse-tube lengths. Performance predictions from PTR CFD models are compared to SAGE® predictions for all four cases. Then, to further demonstrate the benefits of higher-fidelity and multidimensional CFD simulation, the PTR loss mechanisms are characterized in terms of their spatial and temporal locations.

Modelling Southern Ocean ecosystems: krill, the food-web, and the impacts of harvesting.

PubMed

Hill, S L; Murphy, E J; Reid, K; Trathan, P N; Constable, A J

2006-11-01

The ecosystem approach to fisheries recognises the interdependence between harvested species and other ecosystem components. It aims to account for the propagation of the effects of harvesting through the food-web. The formulation and evaluation of ecosystem-based management strategies requires reliable models of ecosystem dynamics to predict these effects. The krill-based system in the Southern Ocean was the focus of some of the earliest models exploring such effects. It is also a suitable example for the development of models to support the ecosystem approach to fisheries because it has a relatively simple food-web structure and progress has been made in developing models of the key species and interactions, some of which has been motivated by the need to develop ecosystem-based management. Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, is the main target species for the fishery and the main prey of many top predators. It is therefore critical to capture the processes affecting the dynamics and distribution of krill in ecosystem dynamics models. These processes include environmental influences on recruitment and the spatially variable influence of advection. Models must also capture the interactions between krill and its consumers, which are mediated by the spatial structure of the environment. Various models have explored predator-prey population dynamics with simplistic representations of these interactions, while others have focused on specific details of the interactions. There is now a pressing need to develop plausible and practical models of ecosystem dynamics that link processes occurring at these different scales. Many studies have highlighted uncertainties in our understanding of the system, which indicates future priorities in terms of both data collection and developing methods to evaluate the effects of these uncertainties on model predictions. We propose a modelling approach that focuses on harvested species and their monitored consumers and that evaluates model uncertainty by using alternative structures and functional forms in a Monte Carlo framework.

Landscape modeling for Everglades ecosystem restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, D.L.; Gross, L.J.; Huston, M.A.; Wolff, W.F.; Fleming, D.M.; Comiskey, E.J.; Sylvester, S.M.

1998-01-01

A major environmental restoration effort is under way that will affect the Everglades and its neighboring ecosystems in southern Florida. Ecosystem and population-level modeling is being used to help in the planning and evaluation of this restoration. The specific objective of one of these modeling approaches, the Across Trophic Level System Simulation (ATLSS), is to predict the responses of a suite of higher trophic level species to several proposed alterations in Everglades hydrology. These include several species of wading birds, the snail kite, Cape Sable seaside sparrow, Florida panther, white-tailed deer, American alligator, and American crocodile. ATLSS is an ecosystem landscape-modeling approach and uses Geographic Information System (GIS) vegetation data and existing hydrology models for South Florida to provide the basic landscape for these species. A method of pseudotopography provides estimates of water depths through time at 28 ?? 28-m resolution across the landscape of southern Florida. Hydrologic model output drives models of habitat and prey availability for the higher trophic level species. Spatially explicit, individual-based computer models simulate these species. ATLSS simulations can compare the landscape dynamic spatial pattern of the species resulting from different proposed water management strategies. Here we compare the predicted effects of one possible change in water management in South Florida with the base case of no change. Preliminary model results predict substantial differences between these alternatives in some biotic spatial patterns. ?? 1998 Springer-Verlag.

Limitations of contrast enhancement for infrared target identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du Bosq, Todd W.; Fanning, Jonathan D.

2009-05-01

Contrast enhancement and dynamic range compression are currently being used to improve the performance of infrared imagers by increasing the contrast between the target and the scene content. Automatic contrast enhancement techniques do not always achieve this improvement. In some cases, the contrast can increase to a level of target saturation. This paper assesses the range-performance effects of contrast enhancement for target identification as a function of image saturation. Human perception experiments were performed to determine field performance using contrast enhancement on the U.S. Army RDECOM CERDEC NVESD standard military eight target set using an un-cooled LWIR camera. The experiments compare the identification performance of observers viewing contrast enhancement processed images at various levels of saturation. Contrast enhancement is modeled in the U.S. Army thermal target acquisition model (NVThermIP) by changing the scene contrast temperature. The model predicts improved performance based on any improved target contrast, regardless of specific feature saturation or enhancement. The measured results follow the predicted performance based on the target task difficulty metric used in NVThermIP for the non-saturated cases. The saturated images reduce the information contained in the target and performance suffers. The model treats the contrast of the target as uniform over spatial frequency. As the contrast is enhanced, the model assumes that the contrast is enhanced uniformly over the spatial frequencies. After saturation, the spatial cues that differentiate one tank from another are located in a limited band of spatial frequencies. A frequency dependent treatment of target contrast is needed to predict performance of over-processed images.

Highly spatially- and seasonally-resolved predictive contamination maps for persistent organic pollutants: development and validation.

PubMed

Ballabio, Cristiano; Guazzoni, Niccoló; Comolli, Roberto; Tremolada, Paolo

2013-08-01

A reliable spatial assessment of the POPs contamination in soils is essential for burden studies and flux evaluations. Soil characteristics and properties vary enormously even within small spatial scale and over time; therefore soil capacity of accumulating POPs varies greatly. In order to include this very high spatial and temporal variability, models can be used for assessing soil accumulation capacity in a specific time and space and, from it, the spatial distribution and temporal trends of POPs concentrations. In this work, predictive contamination maps of the accumulation capacity of soils were developed at a space resolution of 1×1m with a time frame of one day, in a study area located in the central Alps. Physical algorithms for temperature and organic carbon estimation along the soil profile and across the year were fitted to estimate the horizontal, vertical and seasonal distribution of the contamination potential for PCBs in soil (Ksa maps). The resulting maps were cross-validated with an independent set of PCB contamination data, showing very good agreement (e.g. for CB-153, R(2)=0.80, p-value≤2.2·10(-06)). Slopes of the regression between predicted Ksa and experimental concentrations were used to map the soil contamination for the whole area, taking into account soil characteristics and temperature conditions. These maps offer the opportunity to evaluate burden (concentration maps) and fluxes (emission maps) with highly resolved temporal and spatial detail. In addition, in order to explain the observed low autumn PCB concentrations in soil related to the high Ksa values of this period, a dynamic model of seasonal variation of soil concentrations was developed basing on rate parameters fitted on measured concentrations. The model was able to describe, at least partially, the observed different behavior between the quite rapid discharge phase in summer and the slow recharge phase in autumn. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The salt marsh vegetation spread dynamics simulation and prediction based on conditions optimized CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Yujuan; Zhang, Liquan

2006-10-01

The biodiversity conservation and management of the salt marsh vegetation relies on processing their spatial information. Nowadays, more attentions are focused on their classification surveying and describing qualitatively dynamics based on RS images interpreted, rather than on simulating and predicting their dynamics quantitatively, which is of greater importance for managing and planning the salt marsh vegetation. In this paper, our notion is to make a dynamic model on large-scale and to provide a virtual laboratory in which researchers can run it according requirements. Firstly, the characteristic of the cellular automata was analyzed and a conclusion indicated that it was necessary for a CA model to be extended geographically under varying conditions of space-time circumstance in order to make results matched the facts accurately. Based on the conventional cellular automata model, the author introduced several new conditions to optimize it for simulating the vegetation objectively, such as elevation, growth speed, invading ability, variation and inheriting and so on. Hence the CA cells and remote sensing image pixels, cell neighbors and pixel neighbors, cell rules and nature of the plants were unified respectively. Taking JiuDuanSha as the test site, where holds mainly Phragmites australis (P.australis) community, Scirpus mariqueter (S.mariqueter) community and Spartina alterniflora (S.alterniflora) community. The paper explored the process of making simulation and predictions about these salt marsh vegetable changing with the conditions optimized CA (COCA) model, and examined the links among data, statistical models, and ecological predictions. This study exploited the potential of applying Conditioned Optimized CA model technique to solve this problem.

Accounting for heterogeneity of nutrient dynamics in riverscapes through spatially distributed models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wollheim, W. M.; Stewart, R. J.

2011-12-01

Numerous types of heterogeneity exist within river systems, leading to hotspots of nutrient sources, sinks, and impacts embedded within an underlying gradient defined by river size. This heterogeneity influences the downstream propagation of anthropogenic impacts across flow conditions. We applied a river network model to explore how nitrogen saturation at river network scales is influenced by the abundance and distribution of potential nutrient processing hotspots (lakes, beaver ponds, tributary junctions, hyporheic zones) under different flow conditions. We determined that under low flow conditions, whole network nutrient removal is relatively insensitive to the number of hotspots because the underlying river network structure has sufficient nutrient processing capacity. However, hotspots become more important at higher flows and greatly influence the spatial distribution of removal within the network at all flows, suggesting that identification of heterogeneity is critical to develop predictive understanding of nutrient removal processes under changing loading and climate conditions. New temporally intensive data from in situ sensors can potentially help to better understand and constrain these dynamics.

Spatio-temporal evolution of perturbations in ensembles initialized by bred, Lyapunov and singular vectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pazó, Diego; Rodríguez, Miguel A.; López, Juan M.

2010-05-01

We study the evolution of finite perturbations in the Lorenz ‘96 model, a meteorological toy model of the atmosphere. The initial perturbations are chosen to be aligned along different dynamic vectors: bred, Lyapunov, and singular vectors. Using a particular vector determines not only the amplification rate of the perturbation but also the spatial structure of the perturbation and its stability under the evolution of the flow. The evolution of perturbations is systematically studied by means of the so-called mean-variance of logarithms diagram that provides in a very compact way the basic information to analyse the spatial structure. We discuss the corresponding advantages of using those different vectors for preparing initial perturbations to be used in ensemble prediction systems, focusing on key properties: dynamic adaptation to the flow, robustness, equivalence between members of the ensemble, etc. Among all the vectors considered here, the so-called characteristic Lyapunov vectors are possibly optimal, in the sense that they are both perfectly adapted to the flow and extremely robust.

Spatio-temporal evolution of perturbations in ensembles initialized by bred, Lyapunov and singular vectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pazó, Diego; Rodríguez, Miguel A.; López, Juan M.

2010-01-01

We study the evolution of finite perturbations in the Lorenz `96 model, a meteorological toy model of the atmosphere. The initial perturbations are chosen to be aligned along different dynamic vectors: bred, Lyapunov, and singular vectors. Using a particular vector determines not only the amplification rate of the perturbation but also the spatial structure of the perturbation and its stability under the evolution of the flow. The evolution of perturbations is systematically studied by means of the so-called mean-variance of logarithms diagram that provides in a very compact way the basic information to analyse the spatial structure. We discuss the corresponding advantages of using those different vectors for preparing initial perturbations to be used in ensemble prediction systems, focusing on key properties: dynamic adaptation to the flow, robustness, equivalence between members of the ensemble, etc. Among all the vectors considered here, the so-called characteristic Lyapunov vectors are possibly optimal, in the sense that they are both perfectly adapted to the flow and extremely robust.

Encoding sensory and motor patterns as time-invariant trajectories in recurrent neural networks

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Much of the information the brain processes and stores is temporal in nature—a spoken word or a handwritten signature, for example, is defined by how it unfolds in time. However, it remains unclear how neural circuits encode complex time-varying patterns. We show that by tuning the weights of a recurrent neural network (RNN), it can recognize and then transcribe spoken digits. The model elucidates how neural dynamics in cortical networks may resolve three fundamental challenges: first, encode multiple time-varying sensory and motor patterns as stable neural trajectories; second, generalize across relevant spatial features; third, identify the same stimuli played at different speeds—we show that this temporal invariance emerges because the recurrent dynamics generate neural trajectories with appropriately modulated angular velocities. Together our results generate testable predictions as to how recurrent networks may use different mechanisms to generalize across the relevant spatial and temporal features of complex time-varying stimuli. PMID:29537963

Encoding sensory and motor patterns as time-invariant trajectories in recurrent neural networks.

PubMed

Goudar, Vishwa; Buonomano, Dean V

2018-03-14

Much of the information the brain processes and stores is temporal in nature-a spoken word or a handwritten signature, for example, is defined by how it unfolds in time. However, it remains unclear how neural circuits encode complex time-varying patterns. We show that by tuning the weights of a recurrent neural network (RNN), it can recognize and then transcribe spoken digits. The model elucidates how neural dynamics in cortical networks may resolve three fundamental challenges: first, encode multiple time-varying sensory and motor patterns as stable neural trajectories; second, generalize across relevant spatial features; third, identify the same stimuli played at different speeds-we show that this temporal invariance emerges because the recurrent dynamics generate neural trajectories with appropriately modulated angular velocities. Together our results generate testable predictions as to how recurrent networks may use different mechanisms to generalize across the relevant spatial and temporal features of complex time-varying stimuli. © 2018, Goudar et al.

Sublayer-Specific Coding Dynamics during Spatial Navigation and Learning in Hippocampal Area CA1.

PubMed

Danielson, Nathan B; Zaremba, Jeffrey D; Kaifosh, Patrick; Bowler, John; Ladow, Max; Losonczy, Attila

2016-08-03

The mammalian hippocampus is critical for spatial information processing and episodic memory. Its primary output cells, CA1 pyramidal cells (CA1 PCs), vary in genetics, morphology, connectivity, and electrophysiological properties. It is therefore possible that distinct CA1 PC subpopulations encode different features of the environment and differentially contribute to learning. To test this hypothesis, we optically monitored activity in deep and superficial CA1 PCs segregated along the radial axis of the mouse hippocampus and assessed the relationship between sublayer dynamics and learning. Superficial place maps were more stable than deep during head-fixed exploration. Deep maps, however, were preferentially stabilized during goal-oriented learning, and representation of the reward zone by deep cells predicted task performance. These findings demonstrate that superficial CA1 PCs provide a more stable map of an environment, while their counterparts in the deep sublayer provide a more flexible representation that is shaped by learning about salient features in the environment. VIDEO ABSTRACT. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Biomass and fire dynamics in a temperate forest-grassland mosaic: Integrating multi-species herbivory, climate, and fire with the FireBGCv2/GrazeBGC system

Treesearch

Robert A. Riggs; Robert E. Keane; Norm Cimon; Rachel Cook; Lisa Holsinger; John Cook; Timothy DelCurto; L.Scott Baggett; Donald Justice; David Powell; Martin Vavra; Bridgett Naylor

2015-01-01

Landscape fire succession models (LFSMs) predict spatially-explicit interactions between vegetation succession and disturbance, but these models have yet to fully integrate ungulate herbivory as a driver of their processes. We modified a complex LFSM, FireBGCv2, to include a multi-species herbivory module, GrazeBGC. The system is novel in that it explicitly...

Spatial variability in oviposition damage by periodical cicadas in a fragmented landscape.

PubMed

Cook, William M; Holt, Robert D; Yao, Jin

2001-03-01

Effects of the periodical cicada (Magicicada spp.) on forest dynamics are poorly documented. A 1998 emergence of M. cassini in eastern Kansas led to colonization of a fragmented experimental landscape undergoing secondary succession. We hypothesized that per-tree rates of oviposition damage by cicadas would reflect: (1) distance from the source of the emergence, (2) patch size, and (3) local tree density. Ovipositing females displayed clear preferences for host species and damage incidence showed predictable spatial patterns. Two species (smooth sumac, Rhus glabra, and eastern red cedar, Juniperus virginiana) were rarely attacked, whereas others (rough-leaved dogwood, Cornus drummondii; slippery elm, Ulmus rubra; box elder, Acer negundo, and honey locust, Gleditsia triacanthos) were strongly attacked. The dominant early successional tree, dogwood, received on average the most attacks. As predicted, attacks per stem declined strongly with distance from the emergence source, and with local stem density (a "dilution" effect). Contrary to expectations, there were more attacks per stem on larger patches. Because ovipositing cicadas cut damaging slits in host tree branches, potentially affecting tree growth rate, competitive ability, and capacity to reproduce, cicada damage could potentially influence spatial variation in secondary succession.

Spatiotemporal integration for tactile localization during arm movements: a probabilistic approach.

PubMed

Maij, Femke; Wing, Alan M; Medendorp, W Pieter

2013-12-01

It has been shown that people make systematic errors in the localization of a brief tactile stimulus that is delivered to the index finger while they are making an arm movement. Here we modeled these spatial errors with a probabilistic approach, assuming that they follow from temporal uncertainty about the occurrence of the stimulus. In the model, this temporal uncertainty converts into a spatial likelihood about the external stimulus location, depending on arm velocity. We tested the prediction of the model that the localization errors depend on arm velocity. Participants (n = 8) were instructed to localize a tactile stimulus that was presented to their index finger while they were making either slow- or fast-targeted arm movements. Our results confirm the model's prediction that participants make larger localization errors when making faster arm movements. The model, which was used to fit the errors for both slow and fast arm movements simultaneously, accounted very well for all the characteristics of these data with temporal uncertainty in stimulus processing as the only free parameter. We conclude that spatial errors in dynamic tactile perception stem from the temporal precision with which tactile inputs are processed.

Medium-range, objective predictions of thunderstorm location and severity for aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, G. S.; Turner, R. E.

1981-01-01

This paper presents a computerized technique for medium-range (12-48h) prediction of both the location and severity of thunderstorms utilizing atmospheric predictions from the National Meteorological Center's limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM). A regional-scale analysis scheme is first used to examine the spatial and temporal distributions of forecasted variables associated with the structure and dynamics of mesoscale systems over an area of approximately 10 to the 6th sq km. The final prediction of thunderstorm location and severity is based upon an objective combination of these regionally analyzed variables. Medium-range thunderstorm predictions are presented for the late afternoon period of April 10, 1979, the day of the Wichita Falls, Texas tornado. Conventional medium-range thunderstorm forecasts, made from observed data, are presented with the case study to demonstrate the possible application of this objective technique in improving 12-48 h thunderstorm forecasts for aviation.

Predictive motor control of sensory dynamics in Auditory Active Sensing

PubMed Central

Morillon, Benjamin; Hackett, Troy A.; Kajikawa, Yoshinao; Schroeder, Charles E.

2016-01-01

Neuronal oscillations present potential physiological substrates for brain operations that require temporal prediction. We review this idea in the context of auditory perception. Using speech as an exemplar, we illustrate how hierarchically organized oscillations can be used to parse and encode complex input streams. We then consider the motor system as a major source of rhythms (temporal priors) in auditory processing, that act in concert with attention to sharpen sensory representations and link them across areas. We discuss the anatomo-functional pathways that could mediate this audio-motor interaction, and notably the potential role of the somatosensory cortex. Finally, we reposition temporal predictions in the context of internal models, discussing how they interact with feature-based or spatial predictions. We argue that complementary predictions interact synergistically according to the organizational principles of each sensory system, forming multidimensional filters crucial to perception. PMID:25594376

Spatiotemporal Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Traffic Prediction in Transportation Networks

PubMed Central

Yu, Haiyang; Wu, Zhihai; Wang, Shuqin; Wang, Yunpeng; Ma, Xiaolei

2017-01-01

Predicting large-scale transportation network traffic has become an important and challenging topic in recent decades. Inspired by the domain knowledge of motion prediction, in which the future motion of an object can be predicted based on previous scenes, we propose a network grid representation method that can retain the fine-scale structure of a transportation network. Network-wide traffic speeds are converted into a series of static images and input into a novel deep architecture, namely, spatiotemporal recurrent convolutional networks (SRCNs), for traffic forecasting. The proposed SRCNs inherit the advantages of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. The spatial dependencies of network-wide traffic can be captured by DCNNs, and the temporal dynamics can be learned by LSTMs. An experiment on a Beijing transportation network with 278 links demonstrates that SRCNs outperform other deep learning-based algorithms in both short-term and long-term traffic prediction. PMID:28672867

Spatiotemporal Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Traffic Prediction in Transportation Networks.

PubMed

Yu, Haiyang; Wu, Zhihai; Wang, Shuqin; Wang, Yunpeng; Ma, Xiaolei

2017-06-26

Predicting large-scale transportation network traffic has become an important and challenging topic in recent decades. Inspired by the domain knowledge of motion prediction, in which the future motion of an object can be predicted based on previous scenes, we propose a network grid representation method that can retain the fine-scale structure of a transportation network. Network-wide traffic speeds are converted into a series of static images and input into a novel deep architecture, namely, spatiotemporal recurrent convolutional networks (SRCNs), for traffic forecasting. The proposed SRCNs inherit the advantages of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. The spatial dependencies of network-wide traffic can be captured by DCNNs, and the temporal dynamics can be learned by LSTMs. An experiment on a Beijing transportation network with 278 links demonstrates that SRCNs outperform other deep learning-based algorithms in both short-term and long-term traffic prediction.

Virtual Embryo: Cell-Agent Based Modeling of Developmental Processes and Toxicities (CSS BOSC)

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial regulation of cellular dynamics is fundamental to morphological development. As such, chemical disruption of spatial dynamics is a determinant of developmental toxicity. Incorporating spatial dynamics into AOPs for developmental toxicity is desired but constrained by the ...

Higher temporal variability of forest breeding bird communities in fragmented landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boulinier, T.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Flather, C.H.; Pollock, K.H.

1998-01-01

Understanding the relationship between animal community dynamics and landscape structure has become a priority for biodiversity conservation. In particular, predicting the effects of habitat destruction that confine species to networks of small patches is an important prerequisite to conservation plan development. Theoretical models that predict the occurrence of species in fragmented landscapes, and relationships between stability and diversity do exist. However, reliable empirical investigations of the dynamics of biodiversity have been prevented by differences in species detection probabilities among landscapes. Using long-term data sampled at a large spatial scale in conjunction with a capture-recapture approach, we developed estimates of parameters of community changes over a 22-year period for forest breeding birds in selected areas of the eastern United States. We show that forest fragmentation was associated not only with a reduced number of forest bird species, but also with increased temporal variability in the number of species. This higher temporal variability was associated with higher local extinction and turnover rates. These results have major conservation implications. Moreover, the approach used provides a practical tool for the study of the dynamics of biodiversity.

Resolvent-based modeling of passive scalar dynamics in wall-bounded turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, Scott; Saxton-Fox, Theresa; McKeon, Beverley

2017-11-01

The resolvent formulation of the Navier-Stokes equations expresses the system state as the output of a linear (resolvent) operator acting upon a nonlinear forcing. Previous studies have demonstrated that a low-rank approximation of this linear operator predicts many known features of incompressible wall-bounded turbulence. In this work, this resolvent model for wall-bounded turbulence is extended to include a passive scalar field. This formulation allows for a number of additional simplifications that reduce model complexity. Firstly, it is shown that the effect of changing scalar diffusivity can be approximated through a transformation of spatial wavenumbers and temporal frequencies. Secondly, passive scalar dynamics may be studied through the low-rank approximation of a passive scalar resolvent operator, which is decoupled from velocity response modes. Thirdly, this passive scalar resolvent operator is amenable to approximation by semi-analytic methods. We investigate the extent to which this resulting hierarchy of models can describe and predict passive scalar dynamics and statistics in wall-bounded turbulence. The support of AFOSR under Grant Numbers FA9550-16-1-0232 and FA9550-16-1-0361 is gratefully acknowledged.

Multi-Dimensional Calibration of Impact Dynamic Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horta, Lucas G.; Reaves, Mercedes C.; Annett, Martin S.; Jackson, Karen E.

2011-01-01

NASA Langley, under the Subsonic Rotary Wing Program, recently completed two helicopter tests in support of an in-house effort to study crashworthiness. As part of this effort, work is on-going to investigate model calibration approaches and calibration metrics for impact dynamics models. Model calibration of impact dynamics problems has traditionally assessed model adequacy by comparing time histories from analytical predictions to test at only a few critical locations. Although this approach provides for a direct measure of the model predictive capability, overall system behavior is only qualitatively assessed using full vehicle animations. In order to understand the spatial and temporal relationships of impact loads as they migrate throughout the structure, a more quantitative approach is needed. In this work impact shapes derived from simulated time history data are used to recommend sensor placement and to assess model adequacy using time based metrics and orthogonality multi-dimensional metrics. An approach for model calibration is presented that includes metric definitions, uncertainty bounds, parameter sensitivity, and numerical optimization to estimate parameters to reconcile test with analysis. The process is illustrated using simulated experiment data.

Impact of cloud timing on surface temperature and related hydroclimatic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porporato, A. M.; Yin, J.

2015-12-01

Cloud feedbacks have long been identified as one of the largest source of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Differences in the spatial distribution of clouds and the related impact on surface temperature and climate dynamics have been recently emphasized in quasi-equilibrium General Circulation Models (GCM). However, much less attention has been paid to the temporal variation of cloud presence and thickness. Clouds in fact shade the solar radiation during the daytime, but also acts as greenhouse gas to reduce the emission of longwave radiation to the outer space anytime of the day. Thus it is logical to expect that even small differences in timing and thickness of clouds could result in very different predictions in GCMs. In this study, these two effects of cloud dynamics are analyzed by tracking the cloud impacts on longwave and shortwave radiation in a minimalist transient thermal balance model of the land surface. The marked changes in surface temperature due to alterations in the timing of onset of clouds demonstrate that capturing temporal variation of cloud at sub-daily scale should be a priority in cloud parameterization schemes in GCMs.

Dynamic wake prediction and visualization with uncertainty analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holforty, Wendy L. (Inventor); Powell, J. David (Inventor)

2005-01-01

A dynamic wake avoidance system utilizes aircraft and atmospheric parameters readily available in flight to model and predict airborne wake vortices in real time. A novel combination of algorithms allows for a relatively simple yet robust wake model to be constructed based on information extracted from a broadcast. The system predicts the location and movement of the wake based on the nominal wake model and correspondingly performs an uncertainty analysis on the wake model to determine a wake hazard zone (no fly zone), which comprises a plurality of wake planes, each moving independently from another. The system selectively adjusts dimensions of each wake plane to minimize spatial and temporal uncertainty, thereby ensuring that the actual wake is within the wake hazard zone. The predicted wake hazard zone is communicated in real time directly to a user via a realistic visual representation. In an example, the wake hazard zone is visualized on a 3-D flight deck display to enable a pilot to visualize or see a neighboring aircraft as well as its wake. The system substantially enhances the pilot's situational awareness and allows for a further safe decrease in spacing, which could alleviate airport and airspace congestion.

Groundwater similarity across a watershed derived from time-warped and flow-corrected time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinderer, M.; McGlynn, B. L.; van Meerveld, H. J.

2017-05-01

Information about catchment-scale groundwater dynamics is necessary to understand how catchments store and release water and why water quantity and quality varies in streams. However, groundwater level monitoring is often restricted to a limited number of sites. Knowledge of the factors that determine similarity between monitoring sites can be used to predict catchment-scale groundwater storage and connectivity of different runoff source areas. We used distance-based and correlation-based similarity measures to quantify the spatial and temporal differences in shallow groundwater similarity for 51 monitoring sites in a Swiss prealpine catchment. The 41 months long time series were preprocessed using Dynamic Time-Warping and a Flow-corrected Time Transformation to account for small timing differences and bias toward low-flow periods. The mean distance-based groundwater similarity was correlated to topographic indices, such as upslope contributing area, topographic wetness index, and local slope. Correlation-based similarity was less related to landscape position but instead revealed differences between seasons. Analysis of variance and partial Mantel tests showed that landscape position, represented by the topographic wetness index, explained 52% of the variability in mean distance-based groundwater similarity, while spatial distance, represented by the Euclidean distance, explained only 5%. The variability in distance-based similarity and correlation-based similarity between groundwater and streamflow time series was significantly larger for midslope locations than for other landscape positions. This suggests that groundwater dynamics at these midslope sites, which are important to understand runoff source areas and hydrological connectivity at the catchment scale, are most difficult to predict.

A model for filtered backprojection reconstruction artifacts due to time-varying attenuation values in perfusion C-arm CT.

PubMed

Fieselmann, Andreas; Dennerlein, Frank; Deuerling-Zheng, Yu; Boese, Jan; Fahrig, Rebecca; Hornegger, Joachim

2011-06-21

Filtered backprojection is the basis for many CT reconstruction tasks. It assumes constant attenuation values of the object during the acquisition of the projection data. Reconstruction artifacts can arise if this assumption is violated. For example, contrast flow in perfusion imaging with C-arm CT systems, which have acquisition times of several seconds per C-arm rotation, can cause this violation. In this paper, we derived and validated a novel spatio-temporal model to describe these kinds of artifacts. The model separates the temporal dynamics due to contrast flow from the scan and reconstruction parameters. We introduced derivative-weighted point spread functions to describe the spatial spread of the artifacts. The model allows prediction of reconstruction artifacts for given temporal dynamics of the attenuation values. Furthermore, it can be used to systematically investigate the influence of different reconstruction parameters on the artifacts. We have shown that with optimized redundancy weighting function parameters the spatial spread of the artifacts around a typical arterial vessel can be reduced by about 70%. Finally, an inversion of our model could be used as the basis for novel dynamic reconstruction algorithms that further minimize these artifacts.

Static Analysis of Large-Scale Multibody System Using Joint Coordinates and Spatial Algebra Operator

PubMed Central

Omar, Mohamed A.

2014-01-01

Initial transient oscillations inhibited in the dynamic simulations responses of multibody systems can lead to inaccurate results, unrealistic load prediction, or simulation failure. These transients could result from incompatible initial conditions, initial constraints violation, and inadequate kinematic assembly. Performing static equilibrium analysis before the dynamic simulation can eliminate these transients and lead to stable simulation. Most exiting multibody formulations determine the static equilibrium position by minimizing the system potential energy. This paper presents a new general purpose approach for solving the static equilibrium in large-scale articulated multibody. The proposed approach introduces an energy drainage mechanism based on Baumgarte constraint stabilization approach to determine the static equilibrium position. The spatial algebra operator is used to express the kinematic and dynamic equations of the closed-loop multibody system. The proposed multibody system formulation utilizes the joint coordinates and modal elastic coordinates as the system generalized coordinates. The recursive nonlinear equations of motion are formulated using the Cartesian coordinates and the joint coordinates to form an augmented set of differential algebraic equations. Then system connectivity matrix is derived from the system topological relations and used to project the Cartesian quantities into the joint subspace leading to minimum set of differential equations. PMID:25045732

Nonlinear amplification of coherent waves in media with soliton-type refractive index pattern.

PubMed

Bugaychuk, S; Conte, R

2012-08-01

We derive the complex Ginzburg-Landau equation for the dynamical self-diffraction of optical waves in a nonlinear cavity. The case of the reflection geometry of wave interaction as well as a medium that possesses the cubic nonlinearity (including a local and a nonlocal nonlinear responses) and the relaxation is considered. A stable localized spatial structure in the form of a "dark" dissipative soliton is formed in the cavity in the steady state. The envelope of the intensity pattern, as well as of the dynamical grating amplitude, takes the shape of a tanh function. The obtained complex Ginzburg-Landau equation describes the dynamics of this envelope; at the same time, the evolution of this spatial structure changes the parameters of the output waves. New effects are predicted in this system due to the transformation of the dissipative soliton which takes place during the interaction of a pulse with a continuous wave, such as retention of the pulse shape during the transmission of impulses in a long nonlinear cavity, and giant amplification of a seed pulse, which takes energy due to redistribution of the pump continuous energy into the signal.

Static analysis of large-scale multibody system using joint coordinates and spatial algebra operator.

PubMed

Omar, Mohamed A

2014-01-01

Initial transient oscillations inhibited in the dynamic simulations responses of multibody systems can lead to inaccurate results, unrealistic load prediction, or simulation failure. These transients could result from incompatible initial conditions, initial constraints violation, and inadequate kinematic assembly. Performing static equilibrium analysis before the dynamic simulation can eliminate these transients and lead to stable simulation. Most exiting multibody formulations determine the static equilibrium position by minimizing the system potential energy. This paper presents a new general purpose approach for solving the static equilibrium in large-scale articulated multibody. The proposed approach introduces an energy drainage mechanism based on Baumgarte constraint stabilization approach to determine the static equilibrium position. The spatial algebra operator is used to express the kinematic and dynamic equations of the closed-loop multibody system. The proposed multibody system formulation utilizes the joint coordinates and modal elastic coordinates as the system generalized coordinates. The recursive nonlinear equations of motion are formulated using the Cartesian coordinates and the joint coordinates to form an augmented set of differential algebraic equations. Then system connectivity matrix is derived from the system topological relations and used to project the Cartesian quantities into the joint subspace leading to minimum set of differential equations.

Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly.

PubMed

Hanski, Ilkka A

2011-08-30

Demographic population dynamics, gene flow, and local adaptation may influence each other and lead to coupling of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, especially in species inhabiting fragmented heterogeneous environments. Here, I review long-term research on eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly inhabiting a large network of approximately 4,000 meadows in Finland. The metapopulation persists in a balance between frequent local extinctions and recolonizations. The genetic spatial structure as defined by neutral markers is much more coarse-grained than the demographic spatial structure determined by the fragmented habitat, yet small-scale spatial structure has important consequences for the dynamics. I discuss three examples of eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics. (i) Extinction-colonization metapopulation dynamics influence allele frequency changes in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) gene, which leads to strong associations between genetic variation in Pgi and dispersal, recolonization, and local population dynamics. (ii) Inbreeding in local populations increases their risk for extinction, whereas reciprocal effects between inbreeding, population size, and emigration represent likely eco-evolutionary feedbacks. (iii) Genetically determined female oviposition preference for two host plant species exhibits a cline paralleling a gradient in host plant relative abundances, and host plant preference of dispersing females in relation to the host plant composition of habitat patches influences immigration (gene flow) and recolonization (founder events). Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in heterogeneous environments may not lead to directional evolutionary changes unless the environment itself changes, but eco-evolutionary dynamics may contribute to the maintenance of genetic variation attributable to fluctuating selection in space and time.

High Resolution Studies Of Lensed z ∼ 2 Galaxies: Kinematics And Metal Gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leethochawalit, Nicha

2016-09-01

We use the OSIRIS integral field unit (IFU) spectograph to secure spatially-resolved strong emission lines of 15 gravitationally-lensed star-forming galaxies at redshift z ∼ 2. With the aid of gravitational lensing and Keck laser-assisted adaptive optics, the spatial resolution of these sub-luminous galaxies is at a few hundred parsecs. First, we demonstrate that high spatial resolution is crucial in diagnosing the kinematic properties and dynamical maturity of z ∼ 2 galaxies. We observe a significantly lower fraction of rotationally-supported systems than what has been claimed in lower spatial resolution surveys. Second, we find a much larger fraction of z ∼ 2 galaxies with weak metallicity gradients, contrary to the simple picture suggested by earlier studies that well-ordered rotation develops concurrently with established steep metal gradients in all but merging systems. Comparing our observations with the predictions of hydronamical simulations, strong feedback is likely to play a key role in flattening metal gradients in early star-forming galaxies.

Demographic inference under the coalescent in a spatial continuum.

PubMed

Guindon, Stéphane; Guo, Hongbin; Welch, David

2016-10-01

Understanding population dynamics from the analysis of molecular and spatial data requires sound statistical modeling. Current approaches assume that populations are naturally partitioned into discrete demes, thereby failing to be relevant in cases where individuals are scattered on a spatial continuum. Other models predict the formation of increasingly tight clusters of individuals in space, which, again, conflicts with biological evidence. Building on recent theoretical work, we introduce a new genealogy-based inference framework that alleviates these issues. This approach effectively implements a stochastic model in which the distribution of individuals is homogeneous and stationary, thereby providing a relevant null model for the fluctuation of genetic diversity in time and space. Importantly, the spatial density of individuals in a population and their range of dispersal during the course of evolution are two parameters that can be inferred separately with this method. The validity of the new inference framework is confirmed with extensive simulations and the analysis of influenza sequences collected over five seasons in the USA. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Preemptive spatial competition under a reproduction-mortality constraint.

PubMed

Allstadt, Andrew; Caraco, Thomas; Korniss, G

2009-06-21

Spatially structured ecological interactions can shape selection pressures experienced by a population's different phenotypes. We study spatial competition between phenotypes subject to antagonistic pleiotropy between reproductive effort and mortality rate. The constraint we invoke reflects a previous life-history analysis; the implied dependence indicates that although propagation and mortality rates both vary, their ratio is fixed. We develop a stochastic invasion approximation predicting that phenotypes with higher propagation rates will invade an empty environment (no biotic resistance) faster, despite their higher mortality rate. However, once population density approaches demographic equilibrium, phenotypes with lower mortality are favored, despite their lower propagation rate. We conducted a set of pairwise invasion analyses by simulating an individual-based model of preemptive competition. In each case, the phenotype with the lowest mortality rate and (via antagonistic pleiotropy) the lowest propagation rate qualified as evolutionarily stable among strategies simulated. This result, for a fixed propagation to mortality ratio, suggests that a selective response to spatial competition can extend the time scale of the population's dynamics, which in turn decelerates phenotypic evolution.

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenzie, Donald; Littell, Jeremy

2017-01-01

Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought–fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western USA, from temperate rainforest to desert. In the middle of this gradient, conditional on vegetation (fuels), correlations are strong, but outside this range the equivalence hotter and drier equals more fire either breaks down or is contingent on other factors such as previous-year climate. This suggests that the regional drought–fire dynamic will not be stationary in future climate, nor will other more complex contingencies associated with the variation in fire extent. Predictions of future wildfire area therefore need to consider not only vegetation changes, as some dynamic vegetation models now do, but also potential changes in the drought–fire dynamic that will ensue in a warming climate.

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

PubMed

McKenzie, Donald; Littell, Jeremy S

2017-01-01

Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought-fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western USA, from temperate rainforest to desert. In the middle of this gradient, conditional on vegetation (fuels), correlations are strong, but outside this range the equivalence hotter and drier equals more fire either breaks down or is contingent on other factors such as previous-year climate. This suggests that the regional drought-fire dynamic will not be stationary in future climate, nor will other more complex contingencies associated with the variation in fire extent. Predictions of future wildfire area therefore need to consider not only vegetation changes, as some dynamic vegetation models now do, but also potential changes in the drought-fire dynamic that will ensue in a warming climate. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Formulation of image quality prediction criteria for the Viking lander camera

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huck, F. O.; Jobson, D. J.; Taylor, E. J.; Wall, S. D.

1973-01-01

Image quality criteria are defined and mathematically formulated for the prediction computer program which is to be developed for the Viking lander imaging experiment. The general objective of broad-band (black and white) imagery to resolve small spatial details and slopes is formulated as the detectability of a right-circular cone with surface properties of the surrounding terrain. The general objective of narrow-band (color and near-infrared) imagery to observe spectral characteristics if formulated as the minimum detectable albedo variation. The general goal to encompass, but not exceed, the range of the scene radiance distribution within single, commandable, camera dynamic range setting is also considered.

Three-dimensional multiscale modeling of dendritic spacing selection during Al-Si directional solidification

DOE PAGES

Tourret, Damien; Clarke, Amy J.; Imhoff, Seth D.; ...

2015-05-27

We present a three-dimensional extension of the multiscale dendritic needle network (DNN) model. This approach enables quantitative simulations of the unsteady dynamics of complex hierarchical networks in spatially extended dendritic arrays. We apply the model to directional solidification of Al-9.8 wt.%Si alloy and directly compare the model predictions with measurements from experiments with in situ x-ray imaging. The focus is on the dynamical selection of primary spacings over a range of growth velocities, and the influence of sample geometry on the selection of spacings. Simulation results show good agreement with experiments. The computationally efficient DNN model opens new avenues formore » investigating the dynamics of large dendritic arrays at scales relevant to solidification experiments and processes.« less

Dynamics of a multimode semiconductor laser with optical feedback

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koryukin, I. V.

A new model of a multi-longitudinal-mode semiconductor laser with weak optical feedback is proposed. This model generalizes the well-known Tang-Statz-deMars equations, which are derived from the first principles and adequately describe solid-state lasers to a semiconductor active medium. Steady states of the model and the spectrum of relaxation oscillations are found, and the laser dynamics in the chaotic regime of low-frequency fluctuations of intensity is investigated. It is established that the dynamic properties of the proposed model depend mainly on the carrier diffusion, which controls mode-mode coupling in the active medium via spread of gratings of spatial inversion. The resultsmore » obtained are compared with the predictions of previous semiphenomenological models and the scope of applicability of these models is determined.« less

Dynamical features and electric field strengths of double layers driven by currents. [in auroras

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, N.; Thiemann, H.; Schunk, R. W.

1985-01-01

In recent years, a number of papers have been concerned with 'ion-acoustic' double layers. In the present investigation, results from numerical simulations are presented to show that the shapes and forms of current-driven double layers evolve dynamically with the fluctuations in the current through the plasma. It is shown that double layers with a potential dip can form even without the excitation of ion-acoustic modes. Double layers in two-and one-half-dimensional simulations are discussed, taking into account the simulation technique, the spatial and temporal features of plasma, and the dynamical behavior of the parallel potential distribution. Attention is also given to double layers in one-dimensional simulations, and electrical field strengths predicted by two-and one-half-dimensional simulations.

Broad frequency band full field measurements for advanced applications: Point-wise comparisons between optical technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanarini, Alessandro

2018-01-01

The progress of optical systems gives nowadays at disposal on lightweight structures complex dynamic measurements and modal tests, each with its own advantages, drawbacks and preferred usage domains. It is thus more easy than before to obtain highly spatially defined vibration patterns for many applications in vibration engineering, testing and general product development. The potential of three completely different technologies is here benchmarked on a common test rig and advanced applications. SLDV, dynamic ESPI and hi-speed DIC are here first deployed in a complex and unique test on the estimation of FRFs with high spatial accuracy from a thin vibrating plate. The latter exhibits a broad band dynamics and high modal density in the common frequency domain where the techniques can find an operative intersection. A peculiar point-wise comparison is here addressed by means of discrete geometry transforms to put all the three technologies on trial at each physical point of the surface. Full field measurement technologies cannot estimate only displacement fields on a refined grid, but can exploit the spatial consistency of the results through neighbouring locations by means of numerical differentiation operators in the spatial domain to obtain rotational degrees of freedom and superficial dynamic strain distributions, with enhanced quality, compared to other technologies in literature. Approaching the task with the aid of superior quality receptance maps from the three different full field gears, this work calculates and compares rotational and dynamic strain FRFs. Dynamic stress FRFs can be modelled directly from the latter, by means of a constitutive model, avoiding the costly and time-consuming steps of building and tuning a numerical dynamic model of a flexible component or a structure in real life conditions. Once dynamic stress FRFs are obtained, spectral fatigue approaches can try to predict the life of a component in many excitation conditions. Different spectral shaping of the excitation can easily be used to enhance the comparison in the framework of any of the spectral approaches for fatigue life calculations, highlighting benefits and drawbacks of a direct experimental approach to failure and risk assessment in structural dynamics when dealing with complex patterns in real-life testing. Are optical measurements and spatially dense datasets really effective in advanced model updating of lightweight structures with complex structural dynamics? The noise shown in the raw signal of some experiments may pose issues in proficiently exploiting the added data in a fruitful model updating procedure. Model updating results are here compared between scanning and native full field technologies, with comments and details on the test rig, on the advantages and drawbacks of the approaches. The identification of EMA models highlights the increasing quality of shapes that can be obtained from native full field high resolution gears, against that (some time unexpectedly poor) of SLDV tested.

Spatial Patterns in Alternative States and Thresholds: A Missing Link for Management of Landscapes?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The detection of threshold dynamics (and other dynamics of interest) would benefit from explicit representations of spatial patterns of disturbance, spatial dependence in responses to disturbance, and the spatial structure of feedbacks in the design of monitoring and management strategies. Spatially...

20170312 - In Silico Dynamics: computer simulation in a ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Abstract: Utilizing cell biological information to predict higher order biological processes is a significant challenge in predictive toxicology. This is especially true for highly dynamical systems such as the embryo where morphogenesis, growth and differentiation require precisely orchestrated interactions between diverse cell populations. In patterning the embryo, genetic signals setup spatial information that cells then translate into a coordinated biological response. This can be modeled as ‘biowiring diagrams’ representing genetic signals and responses. Because the hallmark of multicellular organization resides in the ability of cells to interact with one another via well-conserved signaling pathways, multiscale computational (in silico) models that enable these interactions provide a platform to translate cellular-molecular lesions perturbations into higher order predictions. Just as ‘the Cell’ is the fundamental unit of biology so too should it be the computational unit (‘Agent’) for modeling embryogenesis. As such, we constructed multicellular agent-based models (ABM) with ‘CompuCell3D’ (www.compucell3d.org) to simulate kinematics of complex cell signaling networks and enable critical tissue events for use in predictive toxicology. Seeding the ABMs with HTS/HCS data from ToxCast demonstrated the potential to predict, quantitatively, the higher order impacts of chemical disruption at the cellular or bioche

In Silico Dynamics: computer simulation in a Virtual Embryo ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Abstract: Utilizing cell biological information to predict higher order biological processes is a significant challenge in predictive toxicology. This is especially true for highly dynamical systems such as the embryo where morphogenesis, growth and differentiation require precisely orchestrated interactions between diverse cell populations. In patterning the embryo, genetic signals setup spatial information that cells then translate into a coordinated biological response. This can be modeled as ‘biowiring diagrams’ representing genetic signals and responses. Because the hallmark of multicellular organization resides in the ability of cells to interact with one another via well-conserved signaling pathways, multiscale computational (in silico) models that enable these interactions provide a platform to translate cellular-molecular lesions perturbations into higher order predictions. Just as ‘the Cell’ is the fundamental unit of biology so too should it be the computational unit (‘Agent’) for modeling embryogenesis. As such, we constructed multicellular agent-based models (ABM) with ‘CompuCell3D’ (www.compucell3d.org) to simulate kinematics of complex cell signaling networks and enable critical tissue events for use in predictive toxicology. Seeding the ABMs with HTS/HCS data from ToxCast demonstrated the potential to predict, quantitatively, the higher order impacts of chemical disruption at the cellular or biochemical level. This is demonstrate

Modelling temporal and spatial dynamics of benthic fauna in North-West-European shelf seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lessin, Gennadi; Bruggeman, Jorn; Artioli, Yuri; Butenschön, Momme; Blackford, Jerry

2017-04-01

Benthic zones of shallow shelf seas receive high amounts of organic material. Physical processes such as resuspension, as well as complex transformations mediated by diverse faunal and microbial communities, define fate of this material, which can be returned to the water column, reworked within sediments or ultimately buried. In recent years, numerical models of various complexity and serving different goals have been developed and applied in order to better understand and predict dynamics of benthic processes. ERSEM includes explicit parameterisations of several groups of benthic biota, which makes it particularly applicable for studies of benthic biodiversity, biological interactions within sediments and benthic-pelagic coupling. To assess model skill in reproducing temporal (inter-annual and seasonal) dynamics of major benthic macrofaunal groups, 1D model simulation results were compared with data from the Western Channel Observatory (WCO) benthic survey. The benthic model was forced with organic matter deposition rates inferred from observed phytoplankton abundance and model parameters were subsequently recalibrated. Based on model results and WCO data comparison, deposit-feeders exert clear seasonal variability, while for suspension-feeders inter-annual variability is more pronounced. Spatial distribution of benthic fauna was investigated using results of a full-scale NEMO-ERSEM hindcast simulation of the North-West European Shelf Seas area, covering the period of 1981-2014. Results suggest close relationship between spatial distribution of biomass of benthic faunal functional groups in relation to bathymetry, hydrodynamic conditions and organic matter supply. Our work highlights that it is feasible to construct, implement and validate models that explicitly include functional groups of benthic macrofauna. Moreover, the modelling approach delivers detailed information on benthic biogeochemistry and food-web at spatial and temporal scales that are unavailable through other sources but highly relevant to marine management, planning and policy.

Rainfall Induced Landslides in Puerto Rico (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lepore, C.; Kamal, S.; Arnone, E.; Noto, V.; Shanahan, P.; Bras, R. L.

2009-12-01

Landslides are a major geologic hazard in the United States, typically triggered by rainfall, earthquakes, volcanoes and human activity. Rainfall-induced landslides are the most common type in the island of Puerto Rico, with one or two large events per year. We performed an island-wide determination of static landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment as well as dynamic modeling of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in a particular hydrologic basin. Based on statistical analysis of past landslides, we determined that reliable prediction of the susceptibility to landslides is strongly dependent on the resolution of the digital elevation model (DEM) employed and the reliability of the rainfall data. A distributed hydrology model capable of simulating landslides, tRIBS-VEGGIE, has been implemented for the first time in a humid tropical environment like Puerto Rico. The Mameyes basin, located in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico, was selected for modeling based on the availability of soil, vegetation, topographical, meteorological and historic landslide data. .Application of the model yields a temporal and spatial distribution of predicted rainfall-induced landslides, which is used to predict the dynamic susceptibility of the basin to landslides.

Dynamics of a radially expanding liquid sheet: Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majumdar, Nayanika; Tirumkudulu, Mahesh

2017-11-01

A recent theory predicts that sinuous waves generated at the center of a radially expanding liquid sheet grow spatially even in absence of a surrounding gas phase. Unlike flat liquid sheets, the thickness of a radially expanding liquid sheet varies inversely with distance from the center of the sheet. To test the predictions of the theory, experiments were carried out on a horizontal, radially expanding liquid sheet formed by collision of a single jet on a solid impactor. The latter was placed on a speaker-vibrator with controlled amplitude and frequency. The growth of sinuous waves was determined by measuring the wave surface inclination angle using reflected laser light under both atmospheric and sub-atmospheric pressure conditions. It is shown that the measured growth rate matches with the predictions of the theory over a large range of Weber numbers for both pressure conditions suggesting that the thinning of the liquid sheet plays a dominant role in setting the growth rate of sinuous waves with minimal influence of the surrounding gas phase on its dynamics. IIT Bombay.

A new theoretical approach to analyze complex processes in cytoskeleton proteins.

PubMed

Li, Xin; Kolomeisky, Anatoly B

2014-03-20

Cytoskeleton proteins are filament structures that support a large number of important biological processes. These dynamic biopolymers exist in nonequilibrium conditions stimulated by hydrolysis chemical reactions in their monomers. Current theoretical methods provide a comprehensive picture of biochemical and biophysical processes in cytoskeleton proteins. However, the description is only qualitative under biologically relevant conditions because utilized theoretical mean-field models neglect correlations. We develop a new theoretical method to describe dynamic processes in cytoskeleton proteins that takes into account spatial correlations in the chemical composition of these biopolymers. Our approach is based on analysis of probabilities of different clusters of subunits. It allows us to obtain exact analytical expressions for a variety of dynamic properties of cytoskeleton filaments. By comparing theoretical predictions with Monte Carlo computer simulations, it is shown that our method provides a fully quantitative description of complex dynamic phenomena in cytoskeleton proteins under all conditions.

Global, quantitative and dynamic mapping of protein subcellular localization.

PubMed

Itzhak, Daniel N; Tyanova, Stefka; Cox, Jürgen; Borner, Georg Hh

2016-06-09

Subcellular localization critically influences protein function, and cells control protein localization to regulate biological processes. We have developed and applied Dynamic Organellar Maps, a proteomic method that allows global mapping of protein translocation events. We initially used maps statically to generate a database with localization and absolute copy number information for over 8700 proteins from HeLa cells, approaching comprehensive coverage. All major organelles were resolved, with exceptional prediction accuracy (estimated at >92%). Combining spatial and abundance information yielded an unprecedented quantitative view of HeLa cell anatomy and organellar composition, at the protein level. We subsequently demonstrated the dynamic capabilities of the approach by capturing translocation events following EGF stimulation, which we integrated into a quantitative model. Dynamic Organellar Maps enable the proteome-wide analysis of physiological protein movements, without requiring any reagents specific to the investigated process, and will thus be widely applicable in cell biology.

The modern temperature-accelerated dynamics approach

DOE PAGES

Zamora, Richard J.; Uberuaga, Blas P.; Perez, Danny; ...

2016-06-01

Accelerated molecular dynamics (AMD) is a class of MD-based methods used to simulate atomistic systems in which the metastable state-to-state evolution is slow compared with thermal vibrations. Temperature-accelerated dynamics (TAD) is a particularly efficient AMD procedure in which the predicted evolution is hastened by elevating the temperature of the system and then recovering the correct state-to-state dynamics at the temperature of interest. TAD has been used to study various materials applications, often revealing surprising behavior beyond the reach of direct MD. This success has inspired several algorithmic performance enhancements, as well as the analysis of its mathematical framework. Recently, thesemore » enhancements have leveraged parallel programming techniques to enhance both the spatial and temporal scaling of the traditional approach. Here, we review the ongoing evolution of the modern TAD method and introduce the latest development: speculatively parallel TAD.« less

Habitat continuity and stepping-stone oceanographic distances explain population genetic connectivity of the brown alga Cystoseira amentacea.

PubMed

Buonomo, Roberto; Assis, Jorge; Fernandes, Francisco; Engelen, Aschwin H; Airoldi, Laura; Serrão, Ester A

2017-02-01

Effective predictive and management approaches for species occurring in a metapopulation structure require good understanding of interpopulation connectivity. In this study, we ask whether population genetic structure of marine species with fragmented distributions can be predicted by stepping-stone oceanographic transport and habitat continuity, using as model an ecosystem-structuring brown alga, Cystoseira amentacea var. stricta. To answer this question, we analysed the genetic structure and estimated the connectivity of populations along discontinuous rocky habitat patches in southern Italy, using microsatellite markers at multiple scales. In addition, we modelled the effect of rocky habitat continuity and ocean circulation on gene flow by simulating Lagrangian particle dispersal based on ocean surface currents allowing multigenerational stepping-stone dynamics. Populations were highly differentiated, at scales from few metres up to thousands of kilometres. The best possible model fit to explain the genetic results combined current direction, rocky habitat extension and distance along the coast among rocky sites. We conclude that a combination of variable suitable habitat and oceanographic transport is a useful predictor of genetic structure. This relationship provides insight into the mechanisms of dispersal and the role of life-history traits. Our results highlight the importance of spatially explicit modelling of stepping-stone dynamics and oceanographic directional transport coupled with habitat suitability, to better describe and predict marine population structure and differentiation. This study also suggests the appropriate spatial scales for the conservation, restoration and management of species that are increasingly affected by habitat modifications. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A first European scale multimedia fate modelling of BDE-209 from 1970 to 2020.

PubMed

Earnshaw, Mark R; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andy J

2015-01-01

The European Variant Berkeley Trent (EVn-BETR) multimedia fugacity model is used to test the validity of previously derived emission estimates and predict environmental concentrations of the main decabromodiphenyl ether congener, BDE-209. The results are presented here and compared with measured environmental data from the literature. Future multimedia concentration trends are predicted using three emission scenarios (Low, Realistic and High) in the dynamic unsteady state mode covering the period 1970-2020. The spatial and temporal distributions of emissions are evaluated. It is predicted that BDE-209 atmospheric concentrations peaked in 2004 and will decline to negligible levels by 2025. Freshwater concentrations should have peaked in 2011, one year after the emissions peak with sediment concentrations peaking in 2013. Predicted atmospheric concentrations are in good agreement with measured data for the Realistic (best estimate of emissions) and High (worst case scenario) emission scenarios. The Low emission scenario consistently underestimates measured data. The German unilateral ban on the use of DecaBDE in the textile industry is simulated in an additional scenario, the effects of which are mainly observed within Germany with only a small effect on the surrounding areas. Overall, the EVn-BTER model predicts atmospheric concentrations reasonably well, within a factor of 5 and 1.2 for the Realistic and High emission scenarios respectively, providing partial validation for the original emission estimate. Total mean MEC:PEC shows the High emission scenario predicts the best fit between air, freshwater and sediment data. An alternative spatial distribution of emissions is tested, based on higher consumption in EBFRIP member states, resulting in improved agreement between MECs and PECs in comparison with the Uniform spatial distribution based on population density. Despite good agreement between modelled and measured point data, more long-term monitoring datasets are needed to compare predicted trends in concentration to determine the rate of change of POPs within the environment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Animal movement in the absence of predation: environmental drivers of movement strategies in a partial migration system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Gibbs, James P.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Frair, Jacqueline L.; Cabrera, Fredy; Rousseau, Louis-Philippe

2016-01-01

Animal movement strategies including migration, dispersal, nomadism, and residency are shaped by broad-scale spatial-temporal structuring of the environment, including factors such as the degrees of spatial variation, seasonality and inter-annual predictability. Animal movement strategies, in turn, interact with the characteristics of individuals and the local distribution of resources to determine local patterns of resource selection with complex and poorly understood implications for animal fitness. Here we present a multi-scale investigation of animal movement strategies and resource selection. We consider the degree to which spatial variation, seasonality, and inter-annual predictability in resources drive migration patterns among different taxa and how movement strategies in turn shape local resource selection patterns. We focus on adult Galapagos giant tortoises Chelonoidis spp. as a model system since they display many movement strategies and evolved in the absence of predators of adults. Specifically, our analysis is based on 63 individuals among four taxa tracked on three islands over six years and almost 106 tortoise re-locations. Tortoises displayed a continuum of movement strategies from migration to sedentarism that were linked to the spatio-temporal scale and predictability of resource distributions. Movement strategies shaped patterns of resource selection. Specifically, migratory individuals displayed stronger selection toward areas where resources were more predictable among years than did non-migratory individuals, which indicates a selective advantage for migrants in seasonally structured, more predictable environments. Our analytical framework combines large-scale predictions for movement strategies, based on environmental structuring, with finer-scale analysis of space-use. Integrating different organizational levels of analysis provides a deeper understanding of the eco-evolutionary dynamics at play in the emergence and maintenance of migration and the critical role of resource predictability. Our results highlight that assessing the potential benefits of differential behavioral responses first requires an understanding of the interactions among movement strategies, resource selection and individual characteristics.

Peak-summer East Asian rainfall predictability and prediction part II: extratropical East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Xing, Wen

2016-07-01

The part II of the present study focuses on northern East Asia (NEA: 26°N-50°N, 100°-140°E), exploring the source and limit of the predictability of the peak summer (July-August) rainfall. Prediction of NEA peak summer rainfall is extremely challenging because of the exposure of the NEA to midlatitude influence. By examining four coupled climate models' multi-model ensemble (MME) hindcast during 1979-2010, we found that the domain-averaged MME temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill is only 0.13. It is unclear whether the dynamical models' poor skills are due to limited predictability of the peak-summer NEA rainfall. In the present study we attempted to address this issue by applying predictable mode analysis method using 35-year observations (1979-2013). Four empirical orthogonal modes of variability and associated major potential sources of variability are identified: (a) an equatorial western Pacific (EWP)-NEA teleconnection driven by EWP sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, (b) a western Pacific subtropical high and Indo-Pacific dipole SST feedback mode, (c) a central Pacific-El Nino-Southern Oscillation mode, and (d) a Eurasian wave train pattern. Physically meaningful predictors for each principal component (PC) were selected based on analysis of the lead-lag correlations with the persistent and tendency fields of SST and sea-level pressure from March to June. A suite of physical-empirical (P-E) models is established to predict the four leading PCs. The peak summer rainfall anomaly pattern is then objectively predicted by using the predicted PCs and the corresponding observed spatial patterns. A 35-year cross-validated hindcast over the NEA yields a domain-averaged TCC skill of 0.36, which is significantly higher than the MME dynamical hindcast (0.13). The estimated maximum potential attainable TCC skill averaged over the entire domain is around 0.61, suggesting that the current dynamical prediction models may have large rooms to improve. Limitations and future work are also discussed.

Disturbance, neutral theory, and patterns of beta diversity in soil communities.

PubMed

Maaß, Stefanie; Migliorini, Massimo; Rillig, Matthias C; Caruso, Tancredi

2014-12-01

Beta diversity describes how local communities within an area or region differ in species composition/abundance. There have been attempts to use changes in beta diversity as a biotic indicator of disturbance, but lack of theory and methodological caveats have hampered progress. We here propose that the neutral theory of biodiversity plus the definition of beta diversity as the total variance of a community matrix provide a suitable, novel, starting point for ecological applications. Observed levels of beta diversity (BD) can be compared to neutral predictions with three possible outcomes: Observed BD equals neutral prediction or is larger (divergence) or smaller (convergence) than the neutral prediction. Disturbance might lead to either divergence or convergence, depending on type and strength. We here apply these ideas to datasets collected on oribatid mites (a key, very diverse soil taxon) under several regimes of disturbances. When disturbance is expected to increase the heterogeneity of soil spatial properties or the sampling strategy encompassed a range of diverging environmental conditions, we observed diverging assemblages. On the contrary, we observed patterns consistent with neutrality when disturbance could determine homogenization of soil properties in space or the sampling strategy encompassed fairly homogeneous areas. With our method, spatial and temporal changes in beta diversity can be directly and easily monitored to detect significant changes in community dynamics, although the method itself cannot inform on underlying mechanisms. However, human-driven disturbances and the spatial scales at which they operate are usually known. In this case, our approach allows the formulation of testable predictions in terms of expected changes in beta diversity, thereby offering a promising monitoring tool.

Co-occurrence Patterns of the Dengue Vector Aedes aegypti and Aedes mediovitattus, a Dengue Competent Mosquito in Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Little, Eliza; Barrera, Roberto; Seto, Karen C.; Diuk-Wasser, Maria

2015-01-01

Aedes aegypti is implicated in dengue transmission in tropical and subtropical urban areas around the world. Ae. aegypti populations are controlled through integrative vector management. However, the efficacy of vector control may be undermined by the presence of alternative, competent species. In Puerto Rico, a native mosquito, Ae. mediovittatus, is a competent dengue vector in laboratory settings and spatially overlaps with Ae. aegypti. It has been proposed that Ae. mediovittatus may act as a dengue reservoir during inter-epidemic periods, perpetuating endemic dengue transmission in rural Puerto Rico. Dengue transmission dynamics may therefore be influenced by the spatial overlap of Ae. mediovittatus, Ae. aegypti, dengue viruses, and humans. We take a landscape epidemiology approach to examine the association between landscape composition and configuration and the distribution of each of these Aedes species and their co-occurrence. We used remotely sensed imagery from a newly launched satellite to map landscape features at very high spatial resolution. We found that the distribution of Ae. aegypti is positively predicted by urban density and by the number of tree patches, Ae. mediovittatus is positively predicted by the number of tree patches, but negatively predicted by large contiguous urban areas, and both species are predicted by urban density and the number of tree patches. This analysis provides evidence that landscape composition and configuration is a surrogate for mosquito community composition, and suggests that mapping landscape structure can be used to inform vector control efforts as well as to inform urban planning. PMID:21989642

Influence of crop type specification and spatial resolution on empirical modeling of field-scale Maize and Soybean carbon fluxes in the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCombs, A. G.; Hiscox, A.; Wang, C.; Desai, A. R.

2016-12-01

A challenge in satellite land surface remote-sensing models of ecosystem carbon dynamics in agricultural systems is the lack of differentiation by crop type and management. This generalization can lead to large discrepancies between model predictions and eddy covariance flux tower observations of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE). Literature confirms that NEE varies remarkably among different crop types making the generalization of agriculture in remote sensing based models inaccurate. Here, we address this inaccuracy by identifying and mapping net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in agricultural fields by comparing bulk modeling and modeling by crop type, and using this information to develop empirical models for future use. We focus on mapping NEE in maize and soybean fields in the US Great Plains at higher spatial resolution using the fusion of MODIS and LandSAT surface reflectance. MODIS observed reflectance was downscaled using the ESTARFM downscaling methodology to match spatial scales to those found in LandSAT and that are more appropriate for carbon dynamics in agriculture fields. A multiple regression model was developed from surface reflectance of the downscaled MODIS and LandSAT remote sensing values calibrated against five FLUXNET/AMERIFLUX flux towers located on soybean and/or maize agricultural fields in the US Great Plains with multi-year NEE observations. Our new methodology improves upon bulk approximates to map and model carbon dynamics in maize and soybean fields, which have significantly different photosynthetic capacities.

A general framework for predicting delayed responses of ecological communities to habitat loss.

PubMed

Chen, Youhua; Shen, Tsung-Jen

2017-04-20

Although biodiversity crisis at different spatial scales has been well recognised, the phenomena of extinction debt and immigration credit at a crossing-scale context are, at best, unclear. Based on two community patterns, regional species abundance distribution (SAD) and spatial abundance distribution (SAAD), Kitzes and Harte (2015) presented a macroecological framework for predicting post-disturbance delayed extinction patterns in the entire ecological community. In this study, we further expand this basic framework to predict diverse time-lagged effects of habitat destruction on local communities. Specifically, our generalisation of KH's model could address the questions that could not be answered previously: (1) How many species are subjected to delayed extinction in a local community when habitat is destructed in other areas? (2) How do rare or endemic species contribute to extinction debt or immigration credit of the local community? (3) How will species differ between two local areas? From the demonstrations using two SAD models (single-parameter lognormal and logseries), the predicted patterns of the debt, credit, and change in the fraction of unique species can vary, but with consistencies and depending on several factors. The general framework deepens the understanding of the theoretical effects of habitat loss on community dynamic patterns in local samples.

Normal modes of weak colloidal gels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varga, Zsigmond; Swan, James W.

2018-01-01

The normal modes and relaxation rates of weak colloidal gels are investigated in calculations using different models of the hydrodynamic interactions between suspended particles. The relaxation spectrum is computed for freely draining, Rotne-Prager-Yamakawa, and accelerated Stokesian dynamics approximations of the hydrodynamic mobility in a normal mode analysis of a harmonic network representing several colloidal gels. We find that the density of states and spatial structure of the normal modes are fundamentally altered by long-ranged hydrodynamic coupling among the particles. Short-ranged coupling due to hydrodynamic lubrication affects only the relaxation rates of short-wavelength modes. Hydrodynamic models accounting for long-ranged coupling exhibit a microscopic relaxation rate for each normal mode, λ that scales as l-2, where l is the spatial correlation length of the normal mode. For the freely draining approximation, which neglects long-ranged coupling, the microscopic relaxation rate scales as l-γ, where γ varies between three and two with increasing particle volume fraction. A simple phenomenological model of the internal elastic response to normal mode fluctuations is developed, which shows that long-ranged hydrodynamic interactions play a central role in the viscoelasticity of the gel network. Dynamic simulations of hard spheres that gel in response to short-ranged depletion attractions are used to test the applicability of the density of states predictions. For particle concentrations up to 30% by volume, the power law decay of the relaxation modulus in simulations accounting for long-ranged hydrodynamic interactions agrees with predictions generated by the density of states of the corresponding harmonic networks as well as experimental measurements. For higher volume fractions, excluded volume interactions dominate the stress response, and the prediction from the harmonic network density of states fails. Analogous to the Zimm model in polymer physics, our results indicate that long-ranged hydrodynamic interactions play a crucial role in determining the microscopic dynamics and macroscopic properties of weak colloidal gels.

The invasive species Ulex europaeus (Fabaceae) shows high dynamism in a fragmented landscape of south-central Chile.

PubMed

Altamirano, Adison; Cely, Jenny Paola; Etter, Andrés; Miranda, Alejandro; Fuentes-Ramirez, Andres; Acevedo, Patricio; Salas, Christian; Vargas, Rodrigo

2016-08-01

Ulex europaeus (gorse) is an invasive shrub deemed as one of the most invasive species in the world. U. europaeus is widely distributed in the south-central area of Chile, which is considered a world hotspot for biodiversity conservation. In addition to its negative effects on the biodiversity of natural ecosystems, U. europaeus is one of the most severe pests for agriculture and forestry. Despite its importance as an invasive species, U. europaeus has been little studied. Although information exists on the potential distribution of the species, the interaction of the invasion process with the spatial dynamic of the landscape and the landscape-scale factors that control the presence or absence of the species is still lacking. We studied the spatial and temporal dynamics of the landscape and how these relate to U. europaeus invasion in south-central Chile. We used supervised classification of satellite images to determine the spatial distribution of the species and other land covers for the years 1986 and 2003, analysing the transitions between the different land covers. We used logistic regression for modelling the increase, decrease and permanence of U. europaeus invasion considering landscape variables. Results showed that the species covers only around 1 % of the study area and showed a 42 % reduction in area for the studied period. However, U. europaeus was the cover type which presented the greatest dynamism in the landscape. We found a strong relationship between changes in land cover and the invasion process, especially connected with forest plantations of exotic species, which promotes the displacement of U. europaeus. The model of gorse cover increase presented the best performance, and the most important predictors were distance to seed source and landscape complexity index. Our model predicted high spread potential of U. europaeus in areas of high conservation value. We conclude that proper management for this invasive species must take into account the spatial dynamics of the landscape within the invaded area in order to address containment, control or mitigation of the invasion.

Discussion of New Approaches to Medium-Short-Term Earthquake Forecast in Practice of The Earthquake Prediction in Yunnan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, F.

2017-12-01

After retrospection of years of practice of the earthquake prediction in Yunnan area, it is widely considered that the fixed-point earthquake precursory anomalies mainly reflect the field information. The increase of amplitude and number of precursory anomalies could help to determine the original time of earthquakes, however it is difficult to obtain the spatial relevance between earthquakes and precursory anomalies, thus we can hardly predict the spatial locations of earthquakes using precursory anomalies. The past practices have shown that the seismic activities are superior to the precursory anomalies in predicting earthquakes locations, resulting from the increased seismicity were observed before 80% M=6.0 earthquakes in Yunnan area. While the mobile geomagnetic anomalies are turned out to be helpful in predicting earthquakes locations in recent year, for instance, the forecasted earthquakes occurring time and area derived form the 1-year-scale geomagnetic anomalies before the M6.5 Ludian earthquake in 2014 are shorter and smaller than which derived from the seismicity enhancement region. According to the past works, the author believes that the medium-short-term earthquake forecast level, as well as objective understanding of the seismogenic mechanisms, could be substantially improved by the densely laying observation array and capturing the dynamic process of physical property changes in the enhancement region of medium to small earthquakes.

European-scale modeling of concentrations and distribution of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in the pentabromodiphenyl ether product.

PubMed

Prevedouros, K; Jones, K C; Sweetman, A J

2004-11-15

The results from a modeling exercise utilizing the European variant (EVn) BETR multimedia environmental fate model are presented for selected polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) of the technical penta- (Pe-) bromodiphenyl ether (BDE) product. The objectives of this study were to test PeBDE emission estimates from the literature for Europe by investigating the consistency between model predictions and ambient measurements to address the ability of the model to predict spatial variability and differences between congeners. Concurrently sampled and analyzed passive sampling air data, together with soil and grass data, were used as key model validation tools. The model steady-state simulations gave generally good agreement with measured data for BDE-47 and -99 with greater discrepancies for heavier congeners (e.g., BDE-153). To predict future atmospheric concentration trends, the model was used in its fully dynamic mode over the period 1970--2010. It was predicted that atmospheric concentrations peaked around 1997, declining with an overall "disappearance" half-life of 4.8 years. Soil and grass levels were underestimated by the model; possible reasons for differences with measurement data are further explored. Finally, the importance of temporally and spatially resolved environmental data sets is highlighted, while improved quantification of degradation half-lives is essential to better understand and predict the behavior of BDE congeners in PeBDE.

Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mod, Heidi K.; Luoto, Miska

2016-12-01

Climate change has been observed to expand distributions of woody plants in many areas of arctic and alpine environments—a phenomenon called shrubification. New spatial arrangements of shrubs cause further changes in vegetation via changing dynamics of biotic interactions. However, the mediating influence of shrubification is rarely acknowledged in predictions of tundra vegetation change. Here, we examine possible warming-induced landscape-level vegetation changes in a high-latitude environment using species distribution modelling (SDM), specifically concentrating on the impacts of shrubification on ambient vegetation. First, we produced estimates of current shrub and tree cover and forecasts of their expansion under climate change scenarios to be incorporated to SDMs of 116 vascular plants. Second, the predictions of vegetation change based on the models including only abiotic predictors and the models including abiotic, shrub and tree predictors were compared in a representative test area. Based on our model predictions, abundance of woody plants will expand, thus decreasing predicted species richness, amplifying species turnover and increasing the local extinction risk for ambient vegetation. However, the spatial variation demonstrated in our predictions highlights that tundra vegetation can be expected to show a wide variety of different responses to the combined effects of warming and shrubification, depending on the original plant species pool and environmental conditions. We conclude that realistic forecasts of the future require acknowledging the role of shrubification in warming-induced tundra vegetation change.

Multicellular regulation of entropy, spatial order, and information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Youk, Hyun

Many multicellular systems such as tissues and microbial biofilms consist of cells that secrete and sense signalling molecules. Understanding how collective behaviours of secrete-and-sense cells is an important challenge. We combined experimental and theoretical approaches to understand multicellular coordination of gene expression and spatial pattern formation among secrete-and-sense cells. We engineered secrete-and-sense yeast cells to show that cells can collectively and permanently remember a past event by reminding each other with their secreted signalling molecule. If one cell ``forgets'' then another cell can remind it. Cell-cell communication ensures a long-term (permanent) memory by overcoming common limitations of intracellular memory. We also established a new theoretical framework inspired by statistical mechanics to understand how fields of secrete-and-sense cells form spatial patterns. We introduce new metrics - cellular entropy, cellular Hamiltonian, and spatial order index - for dynamics of cellular automata that form spatial patterns. Our theory predicts how fast any spatial patterns form, how ordered they are, and establishes cellular Hamiltonian that, like energy for non-living systems, monotonically decreases towards a minimum over time. ERC Starting Grant (MultiCellSysBio), NWO VIDI, NWO NanoFront.

Interactions of spatial strategies producing generalization gradient and blocking: A computational approach

PubMed Central

Dollé, Laurent; Chavarriaga, Ricardo

2018-01-01

We present a computational model of spatial navigation comprising different learning mechanisms in mammals, i.e., associative, cognitive mapping and parallel systems. This model is able to reproduce a large number of experimental results in different variants of the Morris water maze task, including standard associative phenomena (spatial generalization gradient and blocking), as well as navigation based on cognitive mapping. Furthermore, we show that competitive and cooperative patterns between different navigation strategies in the model allow to explain previous apparently contradictory results supporting either associative or cognitive mechanisms for spatial learning. The key computational mechanism to reconcile experimental results showing different influences of distal and proximal cues on the behavior, different learning times, and different abilities of individuals to alternatively perform spatial and response strategies, relies in the dynamic coordination of navigation strategies, whose performance is evaluated online with a common currency through a modular approach. We provide a set of concrete experimental predictions to further test the computational model. Overall, this computational work sheds new light on inter-individual differences in navigation learning, and provides a formal and mechanistic approach to test various theories of spatial cognition in mammals. PMID:29630600

Evaluation of flash-flood discharge forecasts in complex terrain using precipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yates, D.; Warner, T.T.; Brandes, E.A.; Leavesley, G.H.; Sun, Jielun; Mueller, C.K.

2001-01-01

Operational prediction of flash floods produced by thunderstorm (convective) precipitation in mountainous areas requires accurate estimates or predictions of the precipitation distribution in space and time. The details of the spatial distribution are especially critical in complex terrain because the watersheds are generally small in size, and small position errors in the forecast or observed placement of the precipitation can distribute the rain over the wrong watershed. In addition to the need for good precipitation estimates and predictions, accurate flood prediction requires a surface-hydrologic model that is capable of predicting stream or river discharge based on the precipitation-rate input data. Different techniques for the estimation and prediction of convective precipitation will be applied to the Buffalo Creek, Colorado flash flood of July 1996, where over 75 mm of rain from a thunderstorm fell on the watershed in less than 1 h. The hydrologic impact of the precipitation was exacerbated by the fact that a significant fraction of the watershed experienced a wildfire approximately two months prior to the rain event. Precipitation estimates from the National Weather Service's operational Weather Surveillance Radar-Doppler 1988 and the National Center for Atmospheric Research S-band, research, dual-polarization radar, colocated to the east of Denver, are compared. In addition, very short range forecasts from a convection-resolving dynamic model, which is initialized variationally using the radar reflectivity and Doppler winds, are compared with forecasts from an automated-algorithmic forecast system that also employs the radar data. The radar estimates of rain rate, and the two forecasting systems that employ the radar data, have degraded accuracy by virtue of the fact that they are applied in complex terrain. Nevertheless, the radar data and forecasts from the dynamic model and the automated algorithm could be operationally useful for input to surface-hydrologic models employed for flood warning. Precipitation data provided by these various techniques at short time scales and at fine spatial resolutions are employed as detailed input to a distributed-parameter hydrologic model for flash-flood prediction and analysis. With the radar-based precipitation estimates employed as input, the simulated flood discharge was similar to that observed. The dynamic-model precipitation forecast showed the most promise in providing a significant discharge-forecast lead time. The algorithmic system's precipitation forecast did not demonstrate as much skill, but the associated discharge forecast would still have been sufficient to have provided an alert of impending flood danger.

Spatial Correlation Of Streamflows: An Analytical Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betterle, A.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2016-12-01

The interwoven space and time variability of climate and landscape properties results in complex and non-linear hydrological response of streamflow dynamics. Understanding how meteorologic and morphological characteristics of catchments affect similarity/dissimilarity of streamflow timeseries at their outlets represents a scientific challenge with application in water resources management, ecological studies and regionalization approaches aimed to predict streamflows in ungauged areas. In this study, we establish an analytical approach to estimate the spatial correlation of daily streamflows in two arbitrary locations within a given hydrologic district or river basin at seasonal and annual time scales. The method is based on a stochastic description of the coupled streamflow dynamics at the outlet of two catchments. The framework aims to express the correlation of daily streamflows at two locations along a river network as a function of a limited number of physical parameters characterizing the main underlying hydrological drivers, that include climate conditions, precipitation regime and catchment drainage rates. The proposed method portrays how heterogeneity of climate and landscape features affect the spatial variability of flow regimes along river systems. In particular, we show that frequency and intensity of synchronous effective rainfall events in the relevant contributing catchments are the main driver of the spatial correlation of daily discharge, whereas only pronounced differences in the drainage rate of the two basins bear a significant effect on the streamflow correlation. The topological arrangement of the two outlets also influences the underlying streamflow correlation, as we show that nested catchments tend to maximize the spatial correlation of flow regimes. The application of the method to a set of catchments in the South-Eastern US suggests the potential of the proposed tool for the characterization of spatial connections of flow regimes in the absence of discharge measurements.

Personalities influence spatial responses to environmental fluctuations in wild fish.

PubMed

Villegas-Ríos, David; Réale, Denis; Freitas, Carla; Moland, Even; Olsen, Esben M

2018-06-11

1.Although growing evidence supports the idea that animal personality can explain plasticity in response to changes in the social environment, it remains to be tested whether it can explain spatial responses of individuals in the face of natural environmental fluctuations. This is a major challenge in ecology and evolution as spatial dynamics link individual- and population-level processes. 2.In this study we investigated the potential of individual personalities to predict differences in fish behaviour in the wild. Specifically, our goal was to answer if individual differences in plasticity of space use to sea surface temperature could be explained by differences in personality along the reactive-proactive axis. 3.To address this question we first conducted repeated standard laboratory assays (i.e. open-field test, novel object test and mirror-stimulation test) to assess the personality type of 76 wild-caught Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Next, we released the fish back into the sea and monitored their spatial behaviour over large temporal (16 months) and spatial (a whole fjord) scales, using high-resolution acoustic tracking. 4. We demonstrate that 1) cod personality traits are structured into a proactive-reactive syndrome (proactive fish being more bold, exploratory and aggressive), 2) mean depth use of individuals is mainly driven by sea temperature and 3) personality is a significant predictor of home range changes in the wild, where reactive, but not proactive, individuals reduced their home range as sea temperature increased. 5. These findings expand our understanding of the ecological consequences of animal personality and the mechanisms shaping spatial dynamics of animals in nature. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 The Authors Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Spatially Distributed Characterization of Catchment Dynamics Using Travel-Time Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heße, F.; Zink, M.; Attinger, S.

2015-12-01

The description of storage and transport of both water and solved contaminants in catchments is very difficult due to the high heterogeneity of the subsurface properties that govern their fate. This heterogeneity, combined with a generally limited knowledge about the subsurface, results in high degrees of uncertainty. As a result, stochastic methods are increasingly applied, where the relevant processes are modeled as being random. Within these methods, quantities like the catchment travel or residence time of a water parcel are described using probability density functions (PDF). The derivation of these PDF's is typically done by using the water fluxes and states of the catchment. A successful application of such frameworks is therefore contingent on a good quantification of these fluxes and states across the different spatial scales. The objective of this study is to use travel times for the characterization of an ca. 1000 square kilometer, humid catchment in Central Germany. To determine the states and fluxes, we apply the mesoscale Hydrological Model mHM, a spatially distributed hydrological model to the catchment. Using detailed data of precipitation, land cover, morphology and soil type as inputs, mHM is able to determine fluxes like recharge and evapotranspiration and states like soil moisture as outputs. Using these data, we apply the above theoretical framework to our catchment. By virtue of the aforementioned properties of mHM, we are able to describe the storage and release of water with a high spatial resolution. This allows for a comprehensive description of the flow and transport dynamics taking place in the catchment. The spatial distribution of such dynamics is then compared with land cover and soil moisture maps as well as driving forces like precipitation and temperature to determine the most predictive factors. In addition, we investigate how non-local data like the age distribution of discharge flows are impacted by, and therefore allow to infer, local properties of the catchment.

Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration modeling and climate projections.

PubMed

Gharbia, Salem S; Smullen, Trevor; Gill, Laurence; Johnston, Paul; Pilla, Francesco

2018-08-15

Evapotranspiration integrates energy and mass transfer between the Earth's surface and atmosphere and is the most active mechanism linking the atmosphere, hydrosphsophere, lithosphere and biosphere. This study focuses on the fine resolution modeling and projection of spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment scale as response to climate change. Six potential evapotranspiration designed algorithms, systematically selected based on a structured criteria and data availability, have been applied and then validated to long-term mean monthly data for the Shannon River catchment with a 50m 2 cell size. The best validated algorithm was therefore applied to evaluate the possible effect of future climate change on potential evapotranspiration rates. Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration projections have been modeled based on climate change projections from multi-GCM ensembles for three future time intervals (2020, 2050 and 2080) using a range of different Representative Concentration Pathways producing four scenarios for each time interval. Finally, seasonal results have been compared to baseline results to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential evapotranspiration and therefor on the catchment dynamical water balance. The results present evidence that the modeled climate change scenarios would have a significant impact on the future potential evapotranspiration rates. All the simulated scenarios predicted an increase in potential evapotranspiration for each modeled future time interval, which would significantly affect the dynamical catchment water balance. This study addresses the gap in the literature of using GIS-based algorithms to model fine-scale spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems based on climatological observations and simulations in different climatological zones. Providing fine-scale potential evapotranspiration data is very crucial to assess the dynamical catchment water balance to setup management scenarios for the water abstractions. This study illustrates a transferable systematic method to design GIS-based algorithms to simulate spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial prediction of landslide hazard using discriminant analysis and GIS

Treesearch

Peter V. Gorsevski; Paul Gessler; Randy B. Foltz

2000-01-01

Environmental attributes relevant for spatial prediction of landslides triggered by rain and snowmelt events were derived from digital elevation model (DEM). Those data in conjunction with statistics and geographic information system (GIS) provided a detailed basis for spatial prediction of landslide hazard. The spatial prediction of landslide hazard in this paper is...

Predictive modelling of grain-size distributions from marine electromagnetic profiling data using end-member analysis and a radial basis function network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baasch, B.; Müller, H.; von Dobeneck, T.

2018-07-01

In this work, we present a new methodology to predict grain-size distributions from geophysical data. Specifically, electric conductivity and magnetic susceptibility of seafloor sediments recovered from electromagnetic profiling data are used to predict grain-size distributions along shelf-wide survey lines. Field data from the NW Iberian shelf are investigated and reveal a strong relation between the electromagnetic properties and grain-size distribution. The here presented workflow combines unsupervised and supervised machine-learning techniques. Non-negative matrix factorization is used to determine grain-size end-members from sediment surface samples. Four end-members were found, which well represent the variety of sediments in the study area. A radial basis function network modified for prediction of compositional data is then used to estimate the abundances of these end-members from the electromagnetic properties. The end-members together with their predicted abundances are finally back transformed to grain-size distributions. A minimum spatial variation constraint is implemented in the training of the network to avoid overfitting and to respect the spatial distribution of sediment patterns. The predicted models are tested via leave-one-out cross-validation revealing high prediction accuracy with coefficients of determination (R2) between 0.76 and 0.89. The predicted grain-size distributions represent the well-known sediment facies and patterns on the NW Iberian shelf and provide new insights into their distribution, transition and dynamics. This study suggests that electromagnetic benthic profiling in combination with machine learning techniques is a powerful tool to estimate grain-size distribution of marine sediments.

Predictive modelling of grain size distributions from marine electromagnetic profiling data using end-member analysis and a radial basis function network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baasch, B.; M"uller, H.; von Dobeneck, T.

2018-04-01

In this work we present a new methodology to predict grain-size distributions from geophysical data. Specifically, electric conductivity and magnetic susceptibility of seafloor sediments recovered from electromagnetic profiling data are used to predict grain-size distributions along shelf-wide survey lines. Field data from the NW Iberian shelf are investigated and reveal a strong relation between the electromagnetic properties and grain-size distribution. The here presented workflow combines unsupervised and supervised machine learning techniques. Nonnegative matrix factorisation is used to determine grain-size end-members from sediment surface samples. Four end-members were found which well represent the variety of sediments in the study area. A radial-basis function network modified for prediction of compositional data is then used to estimate the abundances of these end-members from the electromagnetic properties. The end-members together with their predicted abundances are finally back transformed to grain-size distributions. A minimum spatial variation constraint is implemented in the training of the network to avoid overfitting and to respect the spatial distribution of sediment patterns. The predicted models are tested via leave-one-out cross-validation revealing high prediction accuracy with coefficients of determination (R2) between 0.76 and 0.89. The predicted grain-size distributions represent the well-known sediment facies and patterns on the NW Iberian shelf and provide new insights into their distribution, transition and dynamics. This study suggests that electromagnetic benthic profiling in combination with machine learning techniques is a powerful tool to estimate grain-size distribution of marine sediments.

Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

PubMed Central

Hanski, Ilkka A.

2011-01-01

Demographic population dynamics, gene flow, and local adaptation may influence each other and lead to coupling of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, especially in species inhabiting fragmented heterogeneous environments. Here, I review long-term research on eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly inhabiting a large network of approximately 4,000 meadows in Finland. The metapopulation persists in a balance between frequent local extinctions and recolonizations. The genetic spatial structure as defined by neutral markers is much more coarse-grained than the demographic spatial structure determined by the fragmented habitat, yet small-scale spatial structure has important consequences for the dynamics. I discuss three examples of eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics. (i) Extinction-colonization metapopulation dynamics influence allele frequency changes in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) gene, which leads to strong associations between genetic variation in Pgi and dispersal, recolonization, and local population dynamics. (ii) Inbreeding in local populations increases their risk for extinction, whereas reciprocal effects between inbreeding, population size, and emigration represent likely eco-evolutionary feedbacks. (iii) Genetically determined female oviposition preference for two host plant species exhibits a cline paralleling a gradient in host plant relative abundances, and host plant preference of dispersing females in relation to the host plant composition of habitat patches influences immigration (gene flow) and recolonization (founder events). Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in heterogeneous environments may not lead to directional evolutionary changes unless the environment itself changes, but eco-evolutionary dynamics may contribute to the maintenance of genetic variation attributable to fluctuating selection in space and time. PMID:21788506