Evaluation of a method of estimating low-flow frequencies from base-flow measurements at Indiana streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, John Thomas

2000-01-01

A mathematical technique of estimating low-flow frequencies from base-flow measurements was evaluated by using data for streams in Indiana. Low-flow frequencies at low- flow partial-record stations were estimated by relating base-flow measurements to concurrent daily flows at nearby streamflow-gaging stations (index stations) for which low-flowfrequency curves had been developed. A network of long-term streamflow-gaging stations in Indiana provided a sample of sites with observed low-flow frequencies. Observed values of 7-day, 10-year low flow and 7-day, 2-year low flow were compared to predicted values to evaluate the accuracy of the method. Five test cases were used to evaluate the method under a variety of conditions in which the location of the index station and its drainage area varied relative to the partial-record station. A total of 141 pairs of streamflow-gaging stations were used in the five test cases. Four of the test cases used one index station, the fifth test case used two index stations. The number of base-flow measurements was varied for each test case to see if the accuracy of the method was affected by the number of measurements used. The most accurate and least variable results were produced when two index stations on the same stream or tributaries of the partial-record station were used. All but one value of the predicted 7-day, 10-year low flow were within 15 percent of the values observed for the long-term continuous record, and all of the predicted values of the 7-day, 2-year lowflow were within 15 percent of the observed values. This apparent accuracy, to some extent, may be a result of the small sample set of 15. Of the four test cases that used one index station, the most accurate and least variable results were produced in the test case where the index station and partial-record station were on the same stream or on streams tributary to each other and where the index station had a larger drainage area than the partial-record station. In that test case, the method tended to over predict, based on the median relative error. In 23 of 28 test pairs, the predicted 7-day, 10-year low flow was within 15 percent of the observed value; in 26 of 28 test pairs, the predicted 7-day, 2-year low flow was within 15 percent of the observed value. When the index station and partial-record station were on the same stream or streams tributary to each other and the index station had a smaller drainage area than the partial-record station, the method tended to under predict the low-flow frequencies. Nineteen of 28 predicted values of the 7-day, 10-year low flow were within 15 percent of the observed values. Twenty-five of 28 predicted values of the 7-day, 2-year low flow were within 15 percent of the observed values. When the index station and the partial-record station were on different streams, the method tended to under predict regardless of whether the index station had a larger or smaller drainage area than that of the partial-record station. Also, the variability of the relative error of estimate was greatest for the test cases that used index stations and partial-record stations from different streams. This variability, in part, may be caused by using more streamflow-gaging stations with small low-flow frequencies in these test cases. A small difference in the predicted and observed values can equate to a large relative error when dealing with stations that have small low-flow frequencies. In the test cases that used one index station, the method tended to predict smaller low-flow frequencies as the number of base-flow measurements was reduced from 20 to 5. Overall, the average relative error of estimate and the variability of the predicted values increased as the number of base-flow measurements was reduced.

First trimester prediction of maternal glycemic status.

PubMed

Gabbay-Benziv, Rinat; Doyle, Lauren E; Blitzer, Miriam; Baschat, Ahmet A

2015-05-01

To predict gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) or normoglycemic status using first trimester maternal characteristics. We used data from a prospective cohort study. First trimester maternal characteristics were compared between women with and without GDM. Association of these variables with sugar values at glucose challenge test (GCT) and subsequent GDM was tested to identify key parameters. A predictive algorithm for GDM was developed and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) statistics was used to derive the optimal risk score. We defined normoglycemic state, when GCT and all four sugar values at oral glucose tolerance test, whenever obtained, were normal. Using same statistical approach, we developed an algorithm to predict the normoglycemic state. Maternal age, race, prior GDM, first trimester BMI, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) were all significantly associated with GDM. Age, BMI, and SBP were also associated with GCT values. The logistic regression analysis constructed equation and the calculated risk score yielded sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 85%, 62%, 13.8%, and 98.3% for a cut-off value of 0.042, respectively (ROC-AUC - area under the curve 0.819, CI - confidence interval 0.769-0.868). The model constructed for normoglycemia prediction demonstrated lower performance (ROC-AUC 0.707, CI 0.668-0.746). GDM prediction can be achieved during the first trimester encounter by integration of maternal characteristics and basic measurements while normoglycemic status prediction is less effective.

Development of an evidence-based approach to external quality assurance for breast cancer hormone receptor immunohistochemistry: comparison of reference values.

PubMed

Makretsov, Nikita; Gilks, C Blake; Alaghehbandan, Reza; Garratt, John; Quenneville, Louise; Mercer, Joel; Palavdzic, Dragana; Torlakovic, Emina E

2011-07-01

External quality assurance and proficiency testing programs for breast cancer predictive biomarkers are based largely on traditional ad hoc design; at present there is no universal consensus on definition of a standard reference value for samples used in external quality assurance programs. To explore reference values for estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor immunohistochemistry in order to develop an evidence-based analytic platform for external quality assurance. There were 31 participating laboratories, 4 of which were previously designated as "expert" laboratories. Each participant tested a tissue microarray slide with 44 breast carcinomas for estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor and submitted it to the Canadian Immunohistochemistry Quality Control Program for analysis. Nuclear staining in 1% or more of the tumor cells was a positive score. Five methods for determining reference values were compared. All reference values showed 100% agreement for estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor scores, when indeterminate results were excluded. Individual laboratory performance (agreement rates, test sensitivity, test specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and κ value) was very similar for all reference values. Identification of suboptimal performance by all methods was identical for 30 of 31 laboratories. Estrogen receptor assessment of 1 laboratory was discordant: agreement was less than 90% for 3 of 5 reference values and greater than 90% with the use of 2 other reference values. Various reference values provide equivalent laboratory rating. In addition to descriptive feedback, our approach allows calculation of technical test sensitivity and specificity, positive and negative predictive values, agreement rates, and κ values to guide corrective actions.

Predicting driving performance in older adults: we are not there yet!

PubMed

Bédard, Michel; Weaver, Bruce; Darzins, Peteris; Porter, Michelle M

2008-08-01

We set up this study to determine the predictive value of approaches for which a statistical association with driving performance has been documented. We determined the statistical association (magnitude of association and probability of occurrence by chance alone) between four different predictors (the Mini-Mental State Examination, Trails A test, Useful Field of View [UFOV], and a composite measure of past driving incidents) and driving performance. We then explored the predictive value of these measures with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and various cutoff values. We identified associations between the predictors and driving performance well beyond the play of chance (p < .01). Nonetheless, the predictors had limited predictive value with areas under the curve ranging from .51 to .82. Statistical associations are not sufficient to infer adequate predictive value, especially when crucial decisions such as whether one can continue driving are at stake. The predictors we examined have limited predictive value if used as stand-alone screening tests.

The predictive value of external continuous lumbar drainage, with cerebrospinal fluid outflow controlled by medium pressure valve, in normal pressure hydrocephalus.

PubMed

Panagiotopoulos, V; Konstantinou, D; Kalogeropoulos, A; Maraziotis, T

2005-09-01

Although sporadic studies have described temporary external cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lumbar drainage as a highly accurate test for predicting the outcome after ventricular shunting in normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) patients, a more recent study reports that the positive predictive value of external lumbar drainage (ELD) is high but the negative predictive value is deceptively low. Therefore, we conducted a prospective study in order to evaluate the predictive value of a continuous ELD, with CSF outflow controlled by medium pressure valve, in NPH patients. Twenty-seven patients with presumed NPH were admitted to our department and CSF drainage was carried out by a temporary (ELD) with CSF outflow controlled by a medium pressure valve for five days. All patients received a ventriculoperitoneal shunt using a medium pressure valve based upon preoperative clinical and radiographic criteria of NPH, regardless of ELD outcome. Clinical evaluation of gait disturbances, urinary incontinence and mental status, and radiological evaluation with brain CT was performed prior to and after ELD test, as well as three months after shunting. Twenty-two patients were finally shunted and included in this study. In a three-month follow-up, using a previously validated score system, overall improvement after permanent shunting correlated well to improvement after ELD test (Spearman's rho = 0.462, p = 0.03). When considering any degree of improvement as a positive response, ELD test yielded high positive predictive values for all individual parameters (gait disturbances 94%, 95% CI 71%-100%, urinary incontinence 100%, 95% CI 66%-100%, and mental status 100%, 95% CI 66%-100%) but negative predictive values were low (< 50%) except for cognitive impairment (85%, 95% CI 55%-98%). This study suggests that a positive ELD-valve system test should be considered a reliable criterion for preoperative selection of shunt-responsive NPH patients. In case of a negative ELD-valve system test, further investigation of the presumed NPH patients with additional tests should be performed.

A performance test of the log and tree grades for eastern white pine

Treesearch

Robert L. Brisbin

1972-01-01

The results of testing the Forest Service standard tree grades and sawlog grades for eastern white pine on an independent sample of 75 trees and 299 logs in southwestern Maine. The total predicted value of the 75 trees was 3 percent higher than the actual value. The total predicted value of the 299 logs was 2 percent higher than the actual value. The differences...

The value of temporary external lumbar CSF drainage in predicting the outcome of shunting on normal pressure hydrocephalus

PubMed Central

Walchenbach, R; Geiger, E; Thomeer, R; Vanneste, J

2002-01-01

Objective: It has been reported that temporary external lumbar CSF drainage (ELD) is a very accurate test for predicting the outcome after ventricular shunting in patients with normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH). However, only a limited number of patients have been studied for assessing the predictive accuracy of ELD. Therefore, the value of ELD in predicting the outcome after a ventriculoperitoneal shunt in patients with presumed NPH was assessed. Methods: All patients with presumed NPH were invited to participate in this study. Clinical assessment, MRI, and neuropsychological evaluation were followed by a lumbar CSF tap test consisting of removing 40 ml CSF. When this test resulted in marked clinical improvement of gait impairment, mental disturbances, or both, the patient was shunted without further tests. In patients with either questionable or no improvement after the CSF tap test, ELD was carried out. The value of ELD for predicting the outcome after shunting was calculated by correlating the results of ELD with that of ventriculoperitoneal shunting. Results: Between January 1994 and December 2000, 49 presumed NPH patients from three institutes were included. Forty three had idiopathic, and the remaining six had secondary NPH. Forty eight patients were shunted; 39 had an ELD of whom 38 completed the test. After 2 months 35 of the 48 (73%) shunted patients had improved. The predictive value of a positive ELD was 87% (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 62–98) and that of a negative ELD 36% (95% CI 17–59). In two patients serious test related complications (meningitis) occurred without residual deficit. Conclusion: The study suggests that although the predictive value of a positive ELD is high, that of a negative ELD is deceptively low because of the high rate of false negative results. The costs and invasiveness of the test and the possibility of serious test related complications further limits its usefulness in managing patients with presumed NPH. PMID:11909911

Usefulness of Two Aspergillus PCR Assays and Aspergillus Galactomannan and β-d-Glucan Testing of Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid for Diagnosis of Chronic Pulmonary Aspergillosis

PubMed Central

Urabe, Naohisa; Sano, Go; Suzuki, Junko; Hebisawa, Akira; Nakamura, Yasuhiko; Koyama, Kazuya; Ishii, Yoshikazu; Tateda, Kazuhiro; Homma, Sakae

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT We evaluated the usefulness of an Aspergillus galactomannan (GM) test, a β-d-glucan (βDG) test, and two different Aspergillus PCR assays of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) samples for the diagnosis of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA). BALF samples from 30 patients with and 120 patients without CPA were collected. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio for each test individually and in combination with other tests. The optical density index values, as determined by receiver operating characteristic analysis, for the diagnosis of CPA were 0.5 and 100 for GM and βDG testing of BALF, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the GM test, βDG test, and PCR assays 1 and 2 were 77.8% and 90.0%, 77.8% and 72.5%, 86.7% and 84.2%, and 66.7% and 94.2%, respectively. A comparison of the PCR assays showed that PCR assay 1 had a better sensitivity, a better negative predictive value, and a better negative likelihood ratio and PCR assay 2 had a better specificity, a better positive predictive value, and a better positive likelihood ratio. The combination of the GM and βDG tests had the highest diagnostic odds ratio. The combination of the GM and βDG tests on BALF was more useful than any single test for diagnosing CPA. PMID:28330887

Bayesian model checking: A comparison of tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucy, L. B.

2018-06-01

Two procedures for checking Bayesian models are compared using a simple test problem based on the local Hubble expansion. Over four orders of magnitude, p-values derived from a global goodness-of-fit criterion for posterior probability density functions agree closely with posterior predictive p-values. The former can therefore serve as an effective proxy for the difficult-to-calculate posterior predictive p-values.

Assessing the predictive value of the American Board of Family Practice In-training Examination.

PubMed

Replogle, William H; Johnson, William D

2004-03-01

The American Board of Family Practice In-training Examination (ABFP ITE) is a cognitive examination similar in content to the ABFP Certification Examination (CE). The ABFP ITE is widely used in family medicine residency programs. It was originally developed and intended to be used for assessment of groups of residents. Despite lack of empirical support, however, some residency programs are using ABFP ITE scores as individual resident performance indicators. This study's objective was to estimate the positive predictive value of the ABFP ITE for identifying residents at risk for poor performance on the ABFP CE or a subsequent ABFP ITE. We used a normal distribution model for correlated test scores and Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the effect of test reliability (measurement errors) on the positive predictive value of the ABFP ITE. The positive predictive value of the composite score was .72. The positive predictive value of the eight specialty subscales ranged from .26 to .57. Only the composite score of the ABFP ITE has acceptable positive predictive value to be used as part of a comprehension resident evaluation system. The ABFP ITE specialty subscales do not have sufficient positive predictive value or reliability to warrant use as performance indicators.

Diagnostic accuracy of tuberculous lymphadenitis fine needle aspiration biopsy confirmed by PCR as gold standard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DSuryadi; Delyuzar; Soekimin

2018-03-01

Indonesia is the second country with the TB (tuberculosis) burden in the world. Improvement in controlling TB and reducing the complications can accelerate early diagnosis and correct treatment. PCR test is a gold standard. However, it is quite expensive for routine diagnosis. Therefore, an accurate and cheaper diagnostic method such as fine needle aspiration biopsy is needed. The study aimsto determine the accuracy of fine needle aspiration biopsy cytology in the diagnosis of tuberculous lymphadenitis. A cross-sectional analytic study was conducted to the samples from patients suspected with tuberculous lymphadenitis. The fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB)test was performed and confirmed by PCR test.There is a comparison to the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of both methods. Sensitivity (92.50%), specificity (96.49%), accuracy (94.85%), positive predictive value (94.87%) and negative predictive value (94.83%) were in FNAB test compared to gold standard. We concluded that fine needle aspiration biopsy is a recommendation for a cheaper and accurate diagnostic test for tuberculous lymphadenitis diagnosis.

The diagnostic value of troponin T testing in the community setting.

PubMed

Planer, David; Leibowitz, David; Paltiel, Ora; Boukhobza, Rina; Lotan, Chaim; Weiss, Teddy A

2006-03-08

Many patients presenting with chest pain to their family physician are referred to the emergency room, in part, due to lack of accurate objective diagnostic tools. This study aimed to assess the diagnostic value of bedside troponin T kit testing in patients presenting with chest pain to their family physician. Prospective, multi-center study. Consecutive subjects with chest pain were recruited from 44 community clinics in Jerusalem. Following clinical assessment by the family physician, qualitative troponin kit testing was performed. Patients with a negative clinical assessment and negative troponin kit were sent home and all others were referred to the emergency room. The final diagnosis at the time of hospital discharge was recorded and telephone follow up was performed after 60 days. Positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity and specificity of troponin kit for myocardial infarction diagnosis and of family physician for hospitalization, were assessed. Of 392 patients enrolled, 349 (89%) were included in the final analysis. The prevalence of myocardial infarction was 1.7%. The positive and negative predictive values of the troponin kit for myocardial infarction diagnosis were 100% and 99.7%, respectively. The positive and negative predictive values of the family physician's assessment to predict hospitalization were 41.4% and 94.1%, respectively. Troponin kit testing is an important tool to assist the family physician in the assessment of patients with chest pain in the community setting. Troponin kit testing may identify otherwise undiagnosed cases of myocardial infarctions, and reduce unnecessary referrals to the emergency room.

The Predictive Value of Selection Criteria in an Urban Magnet School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lohmeier, Jill Hendrickson; Raad, Jennifer

2012-01-01

The predictive value of selection criteria on outcome data from two cohorts of students (Total N = 525) accepted to an urban magnet high school were evaluated. Regression analyses of typical screening variables (suspensions, absences, metropolitan achievement tests, middle school grade point averages [GPAs], Matrix Analogies test scores, and…

Usefulness of Two Aspergillus PCR Assays and Aspergillus Galactomannan and β-d-Glucan Testing of Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid for Diagnosis of Chronic Pulmonary Aspergillosis.

PubMed

Urabe, Naohisa; Sakamoto, Susumu; Sano, Go; Suzuki, Junko; Hebisawa, Akira; Nakamura, Yasuhiko; Koyama, Kazuya; Ishii, Yoshikazu; Tateda, Kazuhiro; Homma, Sakae

2017-06-01

We evaluated the usefulness of an Aspergillus galactomannan (GM) test, a β-d-glucan (βDG) test, and two different Aspergillus PCR assays of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) samples for the diagnosis of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA). BALF samples from 30 patients with and 120 patients without CPA were collected. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio for each test individually and in combination with other tests. The optical density index values, as determined by receiver operating characteristic analysis, for the diagnosis of CPA were 0.5 and 100 for GM and βDG testing of BALF, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the GM test, βDG test, and PCR assays 1 and 2 were 77.8% and 90.0%, 77.8% and 72.5%, 86.7% and 84.2%, and 66.7% and 94.2%, respectively. A comparison of the PCR assays showed that PCR assay 1 had a better sensitivity, a better negative predictive value, and a better negative likelihood ratio and PCR assay 2 had a better specificity, a better positive predictive value, and a better positive likelihood ratio. The combination of the GM and βDG tests had the highest diagnostic odds ratio. The combination of the GM and βDG tests on BALF was more useful than any single test for diagnosing CPA. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Can blood and semen presepsin levels in males predict pregnancy in couples undergoing intra-cytoplasmic sperm injection?

PubMed

Ovayolu, Ali; Arslanbuğa, Cansev Yilmaz; Gun, Ismet; Devranoglu, Belgin; Ozdemir, Arman; Cakar, Sule Eren

2016-01-01

To determine whether semen and plasma presepsin values measured in men with normozoospermia and oligoasthenospermia undergoing invitro-fertilization would be helpful in predicting ongoing pregnancy and live birth. Group-I was defined as patients who had pregnancy after treatment and Group-II comprised those with no pregnancy. Semen and blood presepsin values were subsequently compared between the groups. Parametric comparisons were performed using Student's t-test, and non-parametric comparisons were conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. There were 42 patients in Group-I and 72 in Group-II. In the context of successful pregnancy and live birth, semen presepsin values were statistically significantly higher in Group-I than in Group-II (p= 0.004 and p= 0.037, respectively). The most appropriate semen presepsin cut-off value for predicting both ongoing pregnancy and live birth was calculated as 199 pg/mL. Accordingly, their sensitivity was 64.5% to 59.3%, their specificity was 57.0% to 54.2%, and their positive predictive value was 37.0% to 29.6%, respectively; their negative predictive value was 80.4% in both instances. Semen presepsin values could be a new marker that may enable the prediction of successful pregnancy and/or live birth. Its negative predictive values are especially high.

A method for testing whether model predictions fall within a prescribed factor of true values, with an application to pesticide leaching

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrish, Rudolph S.; Smith, Charles N.

1990-01-01

A quantitative method is described for testing whether model predictions fall within a specified factor of true values. The technique is based on classical theory for confidence regions on unknown population parameters and can be related to hypothesis testing in both univariate and multivariate situations. A capability index is defined that can be used as a measure of predictive capability of a model, and its properties are discussed. The testing approach and the capability index should facilitate model validation efforts and permit comparisons among competing models. An example is given for a pesticide leaching model that predicts chemical concentrations in the soil profile.

Statistical procedures for evaluating daily and monthly hydrologic model predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coffey, M.E.; Workman, S.R.; Taraba, J.L.; Fogle, A.W.

2004-01-01

The overall study objective was to evaluate the applicability of different qualitative and quantitative methods for comparing daily and monthly SWAT computer model hydrologic streamflow predictions to observed data, and to recommend statistical methods for use in future model evaluations. Statistical methods were tested using daily streamflows and monthly equivalent runoff depths. The statistical techniques included linear regression, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, nonparametric tests, t-test, objective functions, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation. None of the methods specifically applied to the non-normal distribution and dependence between data points for the daily predicted and observed data. Of the tested methods, median objective functions, sign test, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation were most applicable for the daily data. The robust coefficient of determination (CD*) and robust modeling efficiency (EF*) objective functions were the preferred methods for daily model results due to the ease of comparing these values with a fixed ideal reference value of one. Predicted and observed monthly totals were more normally distributed, and there was less dependence between individual monthly totals than was observed for the corresponding predicted and observed daily values. More statistical methods were available for comparing SWAT model-predicted and observed monthly totals. The 1995 monthly SWAT model predictions and observed data had a regression Rr2 of 0.70, a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.41, and the t-test failed to reject the equal data means hypothesis. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and the R r2 coefficient were the preferred methods for monthly results due to the ability to compare these coefficients to a set ideal value of one.

Use of the Abbott Architect HIV antigen/antibody assay in a low incidence population.

PubMed

Dubravac, Terry; Gahan, Thomas F; Pentella, Michael A

2013-12-01

With the availability of 4th generation HIV diagnostic tests which are capable of detecting acute infection, Iowa evaluated the 3rd and 4th generation HIV test and compared the performance of these products in a low incidence population. This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of an HIV antigen/antibody combination (4th generation) assay compared to an EIA 3rd generation assay. Over a 4 month period, 2037 specimens submitted for HIV screening were tested by Bio-Rad GS HIV-1/HIV-2 Plus O EIA and the Abbott Architect i1000SR HIV Ag/Ab Combo. The performance characteristics of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were determined. Of the 2037 specimens tested, there were 13 (0.64%) true positives detected. None of the positive specimens were from patients in the acute phase of infection. The Abbott antigen/antibody combo assay had a sensitivity, specificity, positive-predictive value and negative predictive value of 100%, 99.85%, 81.25%, and 100% respectively. The Bio-Rad EIA assay had a sensitivity, specificity, positive-predictive value and negative predictive value of 100%, 99.80%, 76.47% and 100%, respectively. The EIA had four false positive results which tested negative by the antigen/antibody assay and western blot. In a low-incidence state where early infections are less commonly encountered, the EIA assay and the antigen/antibody assay performed with near equivalency. The antigen/antibody assay had one less false positive result. While no patients were detected in the acute stage of infection, the use of the antigen/antibody assay presents the opportunity to detect an infected patient sooner and prevent transmission to others. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Physical function and self-rated health status as predictors of mortality: results from longitudinal analysis in the ilSIRENTE study.

PubMed

Cesari, Matteo; Onder, Graziano; Zamboni, Valentina; Manini, Todd; Shorr, Ronald I; Russo, Andrea; Bernabei, Roberto; Pahor, Marco; Landi, Francesco

2008-12-22

Physical function measures have been shown to predict negative health-related events in older persons, including mortality. These markers of functioning may interact with the self-rated health (SRH) in the prediction of events. Aim of the present study is to compare the predictive value for mortality of measures of physical function and SRH status, and test their possible interactions. Data are from 335 older persons aged >or= 80 years (mean age 85.6 years) enrolled in the "Invecchiamento e Longevità nel Sirente" (ilSIRENTE) study. The predictive values for mortality of 4-meter walk test, Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), hand grip strength, Activities of Daily Living (ADL) scale, Instrumental ADL (IADL) scale, and a SRH scale were compared using proportional hazard models. Kaplan-Meier survival curves for mortality and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were also computed to estimate the predictive value of the independent variables of interest for mortality (alone and in combination). During the 24-month follow-up (mean 1.8 years), 71 (21.2%) events occurred in the study sample. All the tested variables were able to significantly predict mortality. No significant interaction was reported between physical function measures and SRH. The SPPB score was the strongest predictor of overall mortality after adjustment for potential confounders (per SD increase; HR 0.64; 95%CI 0.48-0.86). A similar predictive value was showed by the SRH (per SD increase; HR 0.76; 95%CI 0.59-0.97). The chair stand test was the SPPB subtask showing the highest prognostic value. All the tested measures are able to predict mortality with different extents, but strongest results were obtained from the SPPB and the SRH. The chair stand test may be as useful as the complete SPPB in estimating the mortality risk.

Measuring Sperm DNA Fragmentation and Clinical Outcomes of Medically Assisted Reproduction: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Cissen, Maartje; Wely, Madelon van; Scholten, Irma; Mansell, Steven; Bruin, Jan Peter de; Mol, Ben Willem; Braat, Didi; Repping, Sjoerd; Hamer, Geert

2016-01-01

Sperm DNA fragmentation has been associated with reduced fertilization rates, embryo quality, pregnancy rates and increased miscarriage rates. Various methods exist to test sperm DNA fragmentation such as the sperm chromatin structure assay (SCSA), the sperm chromatin dispersion (SCD) test, the terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase mediated deoxyuridine triphosphate nick end labelling (TUNEL) assay and the single cell gel electrophoresis (Comet) assay. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the value of measuring sperm DNA fragmentation in predicting chance of ongoing pregnancy with IVF or ICSI. Out of 658 unique studies, 30 had extractable data and were thus included in the meta-analysis. Overall, the sperm DNA fragmentation tests had a reasonable to good sensitivity. A wide variety of other factors may also affect the IVF/ICSI outcome, reflected by limited to very low specificity. The constructed hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) curve indicated a fair discriminatory capacity of the TUNEL assay (area under the curve (AUC) of 0.71; 95% CI 0.66 to 0.74) and Comet assay (AUC of 0.73; 95% CI 0.19 to 0.97). The SCSA and the SCD test had poor predictive capacity. Importantly, for the TUNEL assay, SCD test and Comet assay, meta-regression showed no differences in predictive value between IVF and ICSI. For the SCSA meta-regression indicated the predictive values for IVF and ICSI were different. The present review suggests that current sperm DNA fragmentation tests have limited capacity to predict the chance of pregnancy in the context of MAR. Furthermore, sperm DNA fragmentation tests have little or no difference in predictive value between IVF and ICSI. At this moment, there is insufficient evidence to recommend the routine use of sperm DNA fragmentation tests in couples undergoing MAR both for the prediction of pregnancy and for the choice of treatment. Given the significant limitations of the evidence and the methodological weakness and design of the included studies, we do urge for further research on the predictive value of sperm DNA fragmentation for the chance of pregnancy after MAR, also in comparison with other predictors of pregnancy after MAR.

Comparison of manual scaled and predicted foE and foF1 critical frequencies. Technical report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gamache, R.R.; Kersey, W.T.

1990-07-01

The CCIR and Titheridge foE critical frequency prediction routines were tested by comparison with 1875 manually scaled values. The foF1 critical frequency prediction routine of Millman et al was tested by comparison with 1005 manually scaled values. Plots and statistics of the comparisons are presented and discussed. From the results recommendations are made to help improve autoscaling.

A tailored approach to BRAF and MLH1 methylation testing in a universal screening program for Lynch syndrome.

PubMed

Adar, Tomer; Rodgers, Linda H; Shannon, Kristen M; Yoshida, Makoto; Ma, Tianle; Mattia, Anthony; Lauwers, Gregory Y; Iafrate, Anthony J; Chung, Daniel C

2017-03-01

To determine the correlation between BRAF genotype and MLH1 promoter methylation in a screening program for Lynch syndrome (LS), a universal screening program for LS was established in two medical centers. Tumors with abnormal MLH1 staining were evaluated for both BRAF V600E genotype and MLH1 promoter methylation. Tumors positive for both were considered sporadic, and genetic testing was recommended for all others. A total 1011 colorectal cancer cases were screened for Lynch syndrome, and 148 (14.6%) exhibited absent MLH1 immunostaining. Both BRAF and MLH1 methylation testing were completed in 126 cases. Concordant results (both positive or both negative) were obtained in 86 (68.3%) and 16 (12.7%) cases, respectively, with 81% concordance overall. The positive and negative predictive values for a BRAF mutation in predicting MLH1 promoter methylation were 98.9% and 41%, respectively, and the negative predictive value fell to 15% in patients ≥70 years old. Using BRAF genotyping as a sole test to evaluate cases with absent MLH1 staining would have increased referral rates for genetic testing by 2.3-fold compared with MLH1 methylation testing alone (31% vs 13.5%, respectively, P<0.01). However, a hybrid approach that reserves MLH1 methylation testing for BRAF wild-type cases only would significantly decrease the number of methylation assays performed and reduce the referral rate for genetic testing to 12.7%. A BRAF mutation has an excellent positive predictive value but poor negative predictive value in predicting MLH1 promoter methylation. A hybrid use of these tests may reduce the number of low-risk patients referred to genetic counseling and facilitate wider implementation of Lynch syndrome screening programs.

The reliability, validity, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale.

PubMed

Chen, Chia-Wei; Chu, Hsin; Tsai, Chia-Fen; Yang, Hui-Ling; Tsai, Jui-Chen; Chung, Min-Huey; Liao, Yuan-Mei; Chi, Mei-Ju; Chou, Kuei-Ru

2015-11-01

The purpose of this study was to translate the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale into Chinese and to evaluate the psychometric properties (reliability and validity) and the diagnostic properties (sensitivity, specificity and predictive values) of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale. The accurate detection of early dementia requires screening tools with favourable cross-cultural linguistic and appropriate sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values, particularly for Chinese-speaking populations. This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study. Overall, 130 participants suspected to have cognitive impairment were enrolled in the study. A test-retest for determining reliability was scheduled four weeks after the initial test. Content validity was determined by five experts, whereas construct validity was established by using contrasted group technique. The participants' clinical diagnoses were used as the standard in calculating the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. The study revealed that the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale exhibited a test-retest reliability of 0.90, an internal consistency reliability of 0.71, an inter-rater reliability (kappa value) of 0.88 and a content validity index of 0.97. Both the patients and healthy contrast group exhibited significant differences in their cognitive ability. The optimal cut-off points for the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale in the test for mild cognitive impairment and dementia were 24 and 22, respectively; moreover, for these two conditions, the sensitivities of the scale were 0.79 and 0.76, the specificities were 0.91 and 0.81, the areas under the curve were 0.85 and 0.78, the positive predictive values were 0.99 and 0.83 and the negative predictive values were 0.96 and 0.91 respectively. The Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale exhibited sound reliability, validity, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values. This scale can help clinical staff members to quickly and accurately diagnose cognitive impairment and provide appropriate treatment as early as possible. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values: diagnosing purple mange.

PubMed

Collier, Jill; Huebscher, Roxana

2010-04-01

To shed light on several epidemiological terms for better understanding of diagnostic testing measures by using a mythical condition, "purple mange." Scientific literature related to epidemiology and statistical tests. Nurse practitioners (NPs) use the concepts of sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPEC), positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) daily in primary care and specialty areas. In addition, PPV and NPV vary with the prevalence of a condition. At times, NPs misunderstand the meaning of these terms. In order to develop appropriate treatment plans, an understanding of the concepts of SEN, SPEC, PPV, and NPV is important for interpreting test results. The authors have used this mythical condition purple mange as a teaching tool for NP students.

A 3-Year Study of Predictive Factors for Positive and Negative Appendicectomies.

PubMed

Chang, Dwayne T S; Maluda, Melissa; Lee, Lisa; Premaratne, Chandrasiri; Khamhing, Srisongham

2018-03-06

Early and accurate identification or exclusion of acute appendicitis is the key to avoid the morbidity of delayed treatment for true appendicitis or unnecessary appendicectomy, respectively. We aim (i) to identify potential predictive factors for positive and negative appendicectomies; and (ii) to analyse the use of ultrasound scans (US) and computed tomography (CT) scans for acute appendicitis. All appendicectomies that took place at our hospital from the 1st of January 2013 to the 31st of December 2015 were retrospectively recorded. Test results of potential predictive factors of acute appendicitis were recorded. Statistical analysis was performed using Fisher exact test, logistic regression analysis, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values calculation. 208 patients were included in this study. 184 patients had histologically proven acute appendicitis. The other 24 patients had either nonappendicitis pathology or normal appendix. Logistic regression analysis showed statistically significant associations between appendicitis and white cell count, neutrophil count, C-reactive protein, and bilirubin. Neutrophil count was the test with the highest sensitivity and negative predictive values, whereas bilirubin was the test with the highest specificity and positive predictive values (PPV). US and CT scans had high sensitivity and PPV for diagnosing appendicitis. No single test was sufficient to diagnose or exclude acute appendicitis by itself. Combining tests with high sensitivity (abnormal neutrophil count, and US and CT scans) and high specificity (raised bilirubin) may predict acute appendicitis more accurately.

Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predictive Values: Foundations, Pliabilities, and Pitfalls in Research and Practice.

PubMed

Trevethan, Robert

2017-01-01

Within the context of screening tests, it is important to avoid misconceptions about sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. In this article, therefore, foundations are first established concerning these metrics along with the first of several aspects of pliability that should be recognized in relation to those metrics. Clarification is then provided about the definitions of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values and why researchers and clinicians can misunderstand and misrepresent them. Arguments are made that sensitivity and specificity should usually be applied only in the context of describing a screening test's attributes relative to a reference standard; that predictive values are more appropriate and informative in actual screening contexts, but that sensitivity and specificity can be used for screening decisions about individual people if they are extremely high; that predictive values need not always be high and might be used to advantage by adjusting the sensitivity and specificity of screening tests; that, in screening contexts, researchers should provide information about all four metrics and how they were derived; and that, where necessary, consumers of health research should have the skills to interpret those metrics effectively for maximum benefit to clients and the healthcare system.

Prediction of anaerobic power values from an abbreviated WAnT protocol.

PubMed

Stickley, Christopher D; Hetzler, Ronald K; Kimura, Iris F

2008-05-01

The traditional 30-second Wingate anaerobic test (WAnT) is a widely used anaerobic power assessment protocol. An abbreviated protocol has been shown to decrease the mild to severe physical discomfort often associated with the WAnT. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine whether a 20-second WAnT protocol could be used to accurately predict power values of a standard 30-second WAnT. In 96 college females, anaerobic power variables were assessed using a standard 30-second WAnT protocol. Maximum power values as well as instantaneous power at 10, 15, and 20 seconds were recorded. Based on these results, stepwise regression analysis was performed to determine the accuracy with which mean power, minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue for a standard 30-second WAnT could be predicted from values obtained during the first 20 seconds of testing. Mean power values showed the highest level of predictability (R2 = 0.99) from the 20-second values. Minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue also showed high levels of predictability (R2 = 0.91, 0.84, and 0.84, respectively) using only values obtained during the first 20 seconds of the protocol. An abbreviated (20-second) WAnT protocol appears to effectively predict results of a standard 30-second WAnT in college-age females, allowing for comparison of data to published norms. A shortened test may allow for a decrease in unwanted side effects associated with the traditional WAnT protocol.

The predictive power of Japanese candlestick charting in Chinese stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shi; Bao, Si; Zhou, Yu

2016-09-01

This paper studies the predictive power of 4 popular pairs of two-day bullish and bearish Japanese candlestick patterns in Chinese stock market. Based on Morris' study, we give the quantitative details of definition of long candlestick, which is important in two-day candlestick pattern recognition but ignored by several previous researches, and we further give the quantitative definitions of these four pairs of two-day candlestick patterns. To test the predictive power of candlestick patterns on short-term price movement, we propose the definition of daily average return to alleviate the impact of correlation among stocks' overlap-time returns in statistical tests. To show the robustness of our result, two methods of trend definition are used for both the medium-market-value and large-market-value sample sets. We use Step-SPA test to correct for data snooping bias. Statistical results show that the predictive power differs from pattern to pattern, three of the eight patterns provide both short-term and relatively long-term prediction, another one pair only provide significant forecasting power within very short-term period, while the rest three patterns present contradictory results for different market value groups. For all the four pairs, the predictive power drops as predicting time increases, and forecasting power is stronger for stocks with medium market value than those with large market value.

Lifetime prediction for organic coating under alternating hydrostatic pressure by artificial neural network

PubMed Central

Tian, Wenliang; Meng, Fandi; Liu, Li; Li, Ying; Wang, Fuhui

2017-01-01

A concept for prediction of organic coatings, based on the alternating hydrostatic pressure (AHP) accelerated tests, has been presented. An AHP accelerated test with different pressure values has been employed to evaluate coating degradation. And a back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) has been established to predict the service property and the service lifetime of coatings. The pressure value (P), immersion time (t) and service property (impedance modulus |Z|) are utilized as the parameters of the network. The average accuracies of the predicted service property and immersion time by the established network are 98.6% and 84.8%, respectively. The combination of accelerated test and prediction method by BP-ANN is promising to evaluate and predict coating property used in deep sea. PMID:28094340

Predicting toxic effects of copper on aquatic biota in mineralized areas by using the Biotic Ligand Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Kathleen S.; Ranville, James F.; Adams, M.; Choate, LaDonna M.; Church, Stan E.; Fey, David L.; Wanty, Richard B.; Crock, James G.

2006-01-01

The chemical speciation of metals influences their biological effects. The Biotic Ligand Model (BLM) is a computational approach to predict chemical speciation and acute toxicological effects of metals on aquatic biota. Recently, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency incorporated the BLM into their regulatory water-quality criteria for copper. Results from three different laboratory copper toxicity tests were compared with BLM predictions for simulated test-waters. This was done to evaluate the ability of the BLM to accurately predict the effects of hardness and concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and iron on aquatic toxicity. In addition, we evaluated whether the BLM and the three toxicity tests provide consistent results. Comparison of BLM predictions with two types of Ceriodaphnia dubia toxicity tests shows that there is fairly good agreement between predicted LC50 values computed by the BLM and LC50 values determined from the two toxicity tests. Specifically, the effect of increasing calcium concentration (and hardness) on copper toxicity appears to be minimal. Also, there is fairly good agreement between the BLM and the two toxicity tests for test solutions containing elevated DOC, for which the LC50 is 3-to-5 times greater (less toxic) than the LC50 for the lower-DOC test water. This illustrates the protective effects of DOC on copper toxicity and demonstrates the ability of the BLM to predict these protective effects. In contrast, for test solutions with added iron there is a decrease in LC50 values (increase in toxicity) in results from the two C. dubia toxicity tests, and the agreement between BLM LC50 predictions and results from these toxicity tests is poor. The inability of the BLM to account for competitive iron binding to DOC or DOC fractionation may be a significant shortcoming of the BLM for predicting site- specific water-quality criteria in streams affected by iron-rich acidic drainage in mined and mineralized areas.

Bioclinical Test to Predict Nephropathia Epidemica Severity at Hospital Admission.

PubMed

Hentzien, Maxime; Mestrallet, Stéphanie; Halin, Pascale; Pannet, Laure-Anne; Lebrun, Delphine; Dramé, Moustapha; Bani-Sadr, Firouzé; Galempoix, Jean-Marc; Strady, Christophe; Reynes, Jean-Marc; Penalba, Christian; Servettaz, Amélie

2018-06-01

We conducted a multicenter, retrospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with serologically proven nephropathia epidemica (NE) living in Ardennes Department, France, during 2000-2014 to develop a bioclinical test predictive of severe disease. Among 205 patients, 45 (22.0%) had severe NE. We found the following factors predictive of severe NE: nephrotoxic drug exposure (p = 0.005, point value 10); visual disorders (p = 0.02, point value 8); microscopic or macroscopic hematuria (p = 0.04, point value 7); leukocyte count >10 × 10 9 cells/L (p = 0.01, point value 9); and thrombocytopenia <90 × 10 9 /L (p = 0.003, point value 11). When point values for each factor were summed, we found a score of <10 identified low-risk patients (3.3% had severe disease), and a score >20 identified high-risk patients (45.3% had severe disease). If validated in future studies, this test could be used to stratify patients by severity in research studies and in clinical practice.

Characterizing Decision-Analysis Performances of Risk Prediction Models Using ADAPT Curves.

PubMed

Lee, Wen-Chung; Wu, Yun-Chun

2016-01-01

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve is a widely used index to characterize the performance of diagnostic tests and prediction models. However, the index does not explicitly acknowledge the utilities of risk predictions. Moreover, for most clinical settings, what counts is whether a prediction model can guide therapeutic decisions in a way that improves patient outcomes, rather than to simply update probabilities.Based on decision theory, the authors propose an alternative index, the "average deviation about the probability threshold" (ADAPT).An ADAPT curve (a plot of ADAPT value against the probability threshold) neatly characterizes the decision-analysis performances of a risk prediction model.Several prediction models can be compared for their ADAPT values at a chosen probability threshold, for a range of plausible threshold values, or for the whole ADAPT curves. This should greatly facilitate the selection of diagnostic tests and prediction models.

Comparison of Urine Albumin-to-Creatinine Ratio (ACR) Between ACR Strip Test and Quantitative Test in Prediabetes and Diabetes

PubMed Central

Cho, Seon; Kim, Suyoung; Cho, Han-Ik

2017-01-01

Background Albuminuria is generally known as a sensitive marker of renal and cardiovascular dysfunction. It can be used to help predict the occurrence of nephropathy and cardiovascular disorders in diabetes. Individuals with prediabetes have a tendency to develop macrovascular and microvascular pathology, resulting in an increased risk of retinopathy, cardiovascular diseases, and chronic renal diseases. We evaluated the clinical value of a strip test for measuring the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) in prediabetes and diabetes. Methods Spot urine samples were obtained from 226 prediabetic and 275 diabetic subjects during regular health checkups. Urinary ACR was measured by using strip and laboratory quantitative tests. Results The positive rates of albuminuria measured by using the ACR strip test were 15.5% (microalbuminuria, 14.6%; macroalbuminuria, 0.9%) and 30.5% (microalbuminuria, 25.1%; macroalbuminuria, 5.5%) in prediabetes and diabetes, respectively. In the prediabetic population, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and overall accuracy of the ACR strip method were 92.0%, 94.0%, 65.7%, 99.0%, and 93.8%, respectively; the corresponding values in the diabetic population were 80.0%, 91.6%, 81.0%, 91.1%, and 88.0%, respectively. The median [interquartile range] ACR values in the strip tests for measurement ranges of <30, 30-300, and >300 mg/g were 9.4 [6.3-15.4], 46.9 [26.5-87.7], and 368.8 [296.2-575.2] mg/g, respectively, using the laboratory method. Conclusions The ACR strip test showed high sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value, suggesting that the test can be used to screen for albuminuria in cases of prediabetes and diabetes. PMID:27834062

Flight test evaluation of predicted light aircraft drag, performance, and stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smetana, F. O.; Fox, S. R.

1979-01-01

A technique was developed which permits simultaneous extraction of complete lift, drag, and thrust power curves from time histories of a single aircraft maneuver such as a pullup (from V sub max to V sub stall) and pushover (to sub V max for level flight.) The technique is an extension to non-linear equations of motion of the parameter identification methods of lliff and Taylor and includes provisions for internal data compatibility improvement as well. The technique was show to be capable of correcting random errors in the most sensitive data channel and yielding highly accurate results. This technique was applied to flight data taken on the ATLIT aircraft. The drag and power values obtained from the initial least squares estimate are about 15% less than the 'true' values. If one takes into account the rather dirty wing and fuselage existing at the time of the tests, however, the predictions are reasonably accurate. The steady state lift measurements agree well with the extracted values only for small values of alpha. The predicted value of the lift at alpha = 0 is about 33% below that found in steady state tests while the predicted lift slope is 13% below the steady state value.

Can blood and semen presepsin levels in males predict pregnancy in couples undergoing intra-cytoplasmic sperm injection?

PubMed Central

Ovayolu, Ali; Arslanbuğa, Cansev Yilmaz; Gun, Ismet; Devranoglu, Belgin; Ozdemir, Arman; Cakar, Sule Eren

2016-01-01

Objective: To determine whether semen and plasma presepsin values measured in men with normozoospermia and oligoasthenospermia undergoing invitro-fertilization would be helpful in predicting ongoing pregnancy and live birth. Methods: Group-I was defined as patients who had pregnancy after treatment and Group-II comprised those with no pregnancy. Semen and blood presepsin values were subsequently compared between the groups. Parametric comparisons were performed using Student’s t-test, and non-parametric comparisons were conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. Results: There were 42 patients in Group-I and 72 in Group-II. In the context of successful pregnancy and live birth, semen presepsin values were statistically significantly higher in Group-I than in Group-II (p= 0.004 and p= 0.037, respectively). The most appropriate semen presepsin cut-off value for predicting both ongoing pregnancy and live birth was calculated as 199 pg/mL. Accordingly, their sensitivity was 64.5% to 59.3%, their specificity was 57.0% to 54.2%, and their positive predictive value was 37.0% to 29.6%, respectively; their negative predictive value was 80.4% in both instances. Conclusion: Semen presepsin values could be a new marker that may enable the prediction of successful pregnancy and/or live birth. Its negative predictive values are especially high. PMID:27882005

Validation of the cephalosporin intradermal skin test for predicting immediate hypersensitivity: a prospective study with drug challenge.

PubMed

Yoon, S-Y; Park, S Y; Kim, S; Lee, T; Lee, Y S; Kwon, H-S; Cho, Y S; Moon, H-B; Kim, T-B

2013-07-01

Cephalosporin is a major offending agent in terms of drug hypersensitivity along with penicillin. Cephalosporin intradermal skin tests (IDTs) have been widely used; however, their validity for predicting immediate hypersensitivity has not been studied. This study aimed to determine the predictive value of cephalosporin intradermal skin testing before administration of the drug. We prospectively conducted IDTs with four cephalosporins, one each of selected first-, second-, third-, or fourth-generation cephalosporins: ceftezol; cefotetan or cefamandole; ceftriaxone or cefotaxime; and flomoxef, respectively, as well as with penicillin G. After the skin test, whatever the result, one of the tested cephalosporins was administered intravenously and the patient was carefully observed. We recruited 1421 patients who required preoperative cephalosporins. Seventy-four patients (74/1421, 5.2%) were positive to at least one cephalosporin. However, none of responders had immediate hypersensitivity reactions after a challenge dose of the same or different cephalosporin, which were positive in the skin test. Four patients who suffered generalized urticaria and itching after challenge gave negative skin tests for the corresponding drug. The IDT for cephalosporin had a sensitivity of 0%, a specificity of 97.5%, a negative predictive value of 99.7%, and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0%, when challenged with the same drugs that were positive in the skin test. Routine skin testing with a cephalosporin before its administration is not useful for predicting immediate hypersensitivity because of the extremely low sensitivity and PPV of the skin test (CRIS registration no. KCT0000455). © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Determination of the diagnostic value of the Modified Mallampati Score, Upper Lip Bite Test and Facial Angle in predicting difficult intubation: A prospective descriptive study.

PubMed

Mahmoodpoor, Ata; Soleimanpour, Hassan; Golzari, Samad Ej; Nejabatian, Arezoo; Pourlak, Tannaz; Amani, Masoumeh; Hajmohammadi, Saeed; Hosseinzadeh, Hamzeh; Esfanjani, Robab Mehdizadeh

2017-02-01

Difficult intubation is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity related to anesthesia. We decided to evaluate the value of Modified Mallampati Score, Upper Lip Bite Test and Facial Angle in the prediction of difficult intubation. In a prospective descriptive study, data from 132 patients who were candidates for elective maxillofacial surgeries under general anesthesia were gathered. Facial Angles were measured by a maxillofacial surgeon according to cephalometry. The Modified Mallampati Score and Upper Lip Bite Test were first measured by an anesthesiologist and then another anesthesiologist was assigned to record the Cormack and Lehane score during the intubation. Grades 3 and 4 were considered as difficult intubation. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and Youden index were calculated for all tests. Difficult intubation was reported in 12% of the patients. Facial Angle≤82.5° can predict difficult intubation with 87.5% sensitivity and 88.8% specificity. Among the three tests, a high Modified Mallampati Score had the highest specificity (94.5%) and a high Modified Mallampati Score and Facial Angle (FA≤82.5°) had the highest sensitivity (87.5%). The highest NPV, sensitivity and Youden index were observed when using Facial Angle with the Modified Mallampati Score or with Upper Lip Bite Test. Facial Angle has a high sensitivity, NPV and Youden index for the prediction of difficult intubation, but the best result is achieved when Facial Angle is used in combination with either the Modified Mallampati Score or Upper Lip Bit Test. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Rényi parameter to improve the predictive power of singular value decomposition entropy on stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Jiaqi; Gu, Rongbao

2016-04-01

This paper generalizes the method of traditional singular value decomposition entropy by incorporating orders q of Rényi entropy. We analyze the predictive power of the entropy based on trajectory matrix using Shanghai Composite Index and Dow Jones Index data in both static test and dynamic test. In the static test on SCI, results of global granger causality tests all turn out to be significant regardless of orders selected. But this entropy fails to show much predictability in American stock market. In the dynamic test, we find that the predictive power can be significantly improved in SCI by our generalized method but not in DJI. This suggests that noises and errors affect SCI more frequently than DJI. In the end, results obtained using different length of sliding window also corroborate this finding.

Issues in the Development of the AIDMAN VISION SCREENER

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

relationship between the P-T ratio and disease prevalence . As indicated in the bottom portion of Figure 2, the predictive value of any screening test is...absence of disease/injury The Importance of Disease/Injury Prevalence Disease Prevalence - (TP + FN) / TOTAL The specificity and sensitivity The positive...and negative (and their corresponding inverses) predictive values of a given test of a given test are not affected by disease prevalence ! are affected

Receiver operating characteristic analysis of prediction for gastric cancer development using serum pepsinogen and Helicobacter pylori antibody tests.

PubMed

Hamashima, Chisato; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Inoue, Manami; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2017-03-09

Chronic Helicobacter pylori infection plays a central role in the development of gastric cancer as shown by biological and epidemiological studies. The H. pylori antibody and serum pepsinogen (PG) tests have been anticipated to predict gastric cancer development. We determined the predictive sensitivity and specificity of gastric cancer development using these tests. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed, and areas under the curve were estimated. The predictive sensitivity and specificity of gastric cancer development were compared among single tests and combined methods using serum pepsinogen and H. pylori antibody tests. From a large-scale population-based cohort of over 100,000 subjects followed between 1990 and 2004, 497 gastric cancer subjects and 497 matched healthy controls were chosen. The predictive sensitivity and specificity were low in all single tests and combination methods. The highest predictive sensitivity and specificity were obtained for the serum PG I/II ratio. The optimal PG I/II cut-off values were 2.5 and 3.0. At a PG I/II cut-off value of 3.0, the sensitivity was 86.9% and the specificity was 39.8%. Even if three biomarkers were combined, the sensitivity was 97.2% and the specificity was 21.1% when the cut-off values were 3.0 for PG I/II, 70 ng/mL for PG I, and 10.0 U/mL for H. pylori antibody. The predictive accuracy of gastric cancer development was low with the serum pepsinogen and H. pylori antibody tests even if these tests were combined. To adopt these biomarkers for gastric cancer screening, a high specificity is required. When these tests are adopted for gastric cancer screening, they should be carefully interpreted with a clear understanding of their limitations.

A study to ascertain the viability of ultrasonic nondestructive testing to determine the mechanical characteristics of wood/agricultural hardboards with soybean based adhesives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colen, Charles Raymond, Jr.

There have been numerous studies with ultrasonic nondestructive testing and wood fiber composites. The problem of the study was to ascertain whether ultrasonic nondestructive testing can be used in place of destructive testing to obtain the modulus of elasticity (MOE) of the wood/agricultural material with comparable results. The uniqueness of this research is that it addressed the type of content (cornstalks and switchgrass) being used with the wood fibers and the type of adhesives (soybean-based) associated with the production of these composite materials. Two research questions were addressed in the study. The major objective was to determine if one can predict the destructive test MOE value based on the nondestructive test MOE value. The population of the study was wood/agricultural fiberboards made from wood fibers, cornstalks, and switchgrass bonded together with soybean-based, urea-formaldehyde, and phenol-formaldehyde adhesives. Correlational analysis was used to determine if there was a relationship between the two tests. Regression analysis was performed to determine a prediction equation for the destructive test MOE value. Data were collected on both procedures using ultrasonic nondestructing testing and 3-point destructive testing. The results produced a simple linear regression model for this study which was adequate in the prediction of destructive MOE values if the nondestructive MOE value is known. An approximation very close to the entire error in the model equation was explained from the destructive test MOE values for the composites. The nondestructive MOE values used to produce a linear regression model explained 83% of the variability in the destructive test MOE values. The study also showed that, for the particular destructive test values obtained with the equipment used, the model associated with the study is as good as it could be due to the variability in the results from the destructive tests. In this study, an ultrasonic signal was used to determine the MOE values on nondestructive tests. Future research studies could use the same or other hardboards to examine how the resins affect the ultrasonic signal.

Comparison of pH and refractometry index with calcium concentrations in preparturient mammary gland secretions of mares.

PubMed

Korosue, Kenji; Murase, Harutaka; Sato, Fumio; Ishimaru, Mutsuki; Kotoyori, Yasumitsu; Tsujimura, Koji; Nambo, Yasuo

2013-01-15

To test the usefulness of measuring pH and refractometry index, compared with measuring calcium carbonate concentration, of preparturient mammary gland secretions for predicting parturition in mares. Evaluation study. 27 pregnant Thoroughbred mares. Preparturient mammary gland secretion samples were obtained once or twice daily 10 days prior to foaling until parturition. The samples were analyzed for calcium carbonate concentration with a water hardness kit (151 samples), pH with pH test paper (222 samples), and refractometry index with a Brix refractometer (214 samples). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for each test were calculated for evaluation of predicting parturition. The PPV within 72 hours and the NPV within 24 hours for calcium carbonate concentration determination (standard value set to 400 μg/g) were 93.8% and 98.3%, respectively. The PPV within 72 hours and the NPV within 24 hours for the pH test (standard value set at 6.4) were 97.9% and 99.4%, respectively. The PPV within 72 hours and the NPV within 24 hours for the Brix test (standard value set to 20%) were 73.2% and 96.5%, respectively. Results suggested that the pH test with the standard value set at a pH of 6.4 would be useful in the management of preparturient mares by predicting when mares are not ready to foal. This was accomplished with equal effectiveness of measuring calcium carbonate concentration with a water hardness kit.

Mallampati test as a predictor of laryngoscopic view.

PubMed

Adamus, Milan; Fritscherova, Sarka; Hrabalek, Lumir; Gabrhelik, Tomas; Zapletalova, Jana; Janout, Vladimir

2010-12-01

To determine the accuracy of the modified Mallampati test for predicting difficult tracheal intubation. A cross-sectional, clinical, observational, non-blinded study. A quality analysis of anesthetic care. Operating theatres and department of anesthesiology in a university hospital. Following the local ethics committee approval and patients' informed consent to anesthesia, all adult patients (> 18 yrs) presenting for any type of non-emergency surgical procedures under general anesthesia requiring endotracheal intubation were enrolled. Prior to anesthesia, Samsoon and Young's modification of the Mallampati test (modified Mallampati test) was performed. Following induction, the anesthesiologist described the laryngoscopic view using the Cormack-Lehane scale. Classes 3 or 4 of the modified Mallampati test were considered a predictor of difficult intubation. Grades 3 or 4 of the Cormack-Lehane classification of the laryngoscopic view were defined as impaired glottic exposure. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, relative risk, likelihood ratio and accuracy of the modified Mallampati test were calculated on 2x2 contingency tables. Of the total 1,518 patients enrolled, 48 had difficult intubation (3.2%). We failed to detect as many as 35.4% patients in whom glottis exposure during direct laryngoscopy was inadequate (sensitivity 0.646). Compared to the original article by Mallampati, we found lower specificity (0.824 vs. 0.995), lower positive predictive value (0.107 vs. 0.933), higher negative predictive value (0.986 vs. 0.928), lower likelihood ratio (3.68 vs. 91.0) and accuracy (0.819 vs. 0.929). When used as a single examination, the modified Mallampati test is of limited value in predicting difficult intubation.

Usefulness of a 50-meter round walking test for fall prediction in the elderly requiring long-term care

PubMed Central

Hachiya, Mizuki; Murata, Shin; Otao, Hiroshi; Ihara, Takehiko; Mizota, Katsuhiko; Asami, Toyoko

2015-01-01

[Purpose] This study aimed to verify the usefulness of a 50-m round walking test developed as an assessment method for walking ability in the elderly. [Subjects] The subjects were 166 elderly requiring long-term care individuals (mean age, 80.5 years). [Methods] In order to evaluate the factors that had affected falls in the subjects in the previous year, we performed the 50-m round walking test, functional reach test, one-leg standing test, and 5-m walking test and measured grip strength and quadriceps strength. [Results] The 50-m round walking test was selected as a variable indicating fall risk based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis. The cutoff value of the 50-m round walking test for determining fall risk was 0.66 m/sec. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64. The sensitivity of the cutoff value was 65.7%, the specificity was 63.6%, the positive predictive value was 55.0%, the negative predictive value was 73.3%, and the accuracy was 64.5%. [Conclusion] These results suggest that the 50-m round walking test is a potentially useful parameter for the determination of fall risk in the elderly requiring long-term care. PMID:26834327

Usefulness of a 50-meter round walking test for fall prediction in the elderly requiring long-term care.

PubMed

Hachiya, Mizuki; Murata, Shin; Otao, Hiroshi; Ihara, Takehiko; Mizota, Katsuhiko; Asami, Toyoko

2015-12-01

[Purpose] This study aimed to verify the usefulness of a 50-m round walking test developed as an assessment method for walking ability in the elderly. [Subjects] The subjects were 166 elderly requiring long-term care individuals (mean age, 80.5 years). [Methods] In order to evaluate the factors that had affected falls in the subjects in the previous year, we performed the 50-m round walking test, functional reach test, one-leg standing test, and 5-m walking test and measured grip strength and quadriceps strength. [Results] The 50-m round walking test was selected as a variable indicating fall risk based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis. The cutoff value of the 50-m round walking test for determining fall risk was 0.66 m/sec. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64. The sensitivity of the cutoff value was 65.7%, the specificity was 63.6%, the positive predictive value was 55.0%, the negative predictive value was 73.3%, and the accuracy was 64.5%. [Conclusion] These results suggest that the 50-m round walking test is a potentially useful parameter for the determination of fall risk in the elderly requiring long-term care.

Sensitivity, Specificity, Predictive Values, and Accuracy of Three Diagnostic Tests to Predict Inferior Alveolar Nerve Blockade Failure in Symptomatic Irreversible Pulpitis

PubMed Central

Rodríguez-Wong, Laura; Noguera-González, Danny; Esparza-Villalpando, Vicente; Montero-Aguilar, Mauricio

2017-01-01

Introduction The inferior alveolar nerve block (IANB) is the most common anesthetic technique used on mandibular teeth during root canal treatment. Its success in the presence of preoperative inflammation is still controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and accuracy of three diagnostic tests used to predict IANB failure in symptomatic irreversible pulpitis (SIP). Methodology A cross-sectional study was carried out on the mandibular molars of 53 patients with SIP. All patients received a single cartridge of mepivacaine 2% with 1 : 100000 epinephrine using the IANB technique. Three diagnostic clinical tests were performed to detect anesthetic failure. Anesthetic failure was defined as a positive painful response to any of the three tests. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, and ROC curves were calculated and compared and significant differences were analyzed. Results IANB failure was determined in 71.7% of the patients. The sensitivity scores for the three tests (lip numbness, the cold stimuli test, and responsiveness during endodontic access) were 0.03, 0.35, and 0.55, respectively, and the specificity score was determined as 1 for all of the tests. Clinically, none of the evaluated tests demonstrated a high enough accuracy (0.30, 0.53, and 0.68 for lip numbness, the cold stimuli test, and responsiveness during endodontic access, resp.). A comparison of the areas under the curve in the ROC analyses showed statistically significant differences between the three tests (p < 0.05). Conclusion None of the analyzed tests demonstrated a high enough accuracy to be considered a reliable diagnostic tool for the prediction of anesthetic failure. PMID:28694714

Predicting one repetition maximum equations accuracy in paralympic rowers with motor disabilities.

PubMed

Schwingel, Paulo A; Porto, Yuri C; Dias, Marcelo C M; Moreira, Mônica M; Zoppi, Cláudio C

2009-05-01

Predicting one repetition maximum equations accuracy in paralympic rowers Resistance training intensity is prescribed using percentiles of the maximum strength, defined as the maximum tension generated for a muscle or muscular group. This value is found through the application of the one maximal repetition (1RM) test. One maximal repetition test demands time and still is not appropriate for some populations because of the risk it offers. In recent years, the prediction of maximal strength, through predicting equations, has been used to prevent the inconveniences of the 1RM test. The purpose of this study was to verify the accuracy of 12 1RM predicting equations for disabled rowers. Nine male paralympic rowers (7 one-leg amputated rowers and 2 cerebral paralyzed rowers; age, 30 +/- 7.9 years; height, 175.1 +/- 5.9 cm; weight, 69 +/- 13.6 kg) performed 1RM test for lying T-bar row and flat barbell bench press exercises to determine upper-body strength and leg press exercise to determine lower-body strength. One maximal repetition test was performed, and based on submaximal repetitions loads, several linear and exponential equations models were tested with regard of their accuracy. We did not find statistical differences for lying T-bar row and bench press exercises between measured and predicted 1RM values (p = 0.84 and 0.23 for lying T-bar row and flat barbell bench press, respectively); however, leg press exercise reached a high significant difference between measured and predicted values (p < 0.01). In conclusion, rowers with motor disabilities tolerate 1RM testing procedures, and predicting 1RM equations are accurate for bench press and lying T-bar row, but not for leg press, in this kind of athlete.

Diagnostic accuracy of patch test in children with food allergy.

PubMed

Caglayan Sozmen, Sule; Povesi Dascola, Carlotta; Gioia, Edoardo; Mastrorilli, Carla; Rizzuti, Laura; Caffarelli, Carlo

2015-08-01

The gold standard test for confirming whether a child has clinical hypersensitivity reactions to foods is the oral food challenge. Therefore, there is increasing interest in simpler diagnostic markers of food allergy, especially in children, to avoid oral food challenge. The goal of this study was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of atopy patch test in comparison with oral food challenge. We investigated 243 children (mean age, 51 months) referred for evaluation of suspected egg or cow's milk allergy. Skin prick test and atopy patch test were carried out, and after a 2 weeks elimination diet, oral food challenge was performed. Two hundred and forty-three children underwent OFC to the suspected food. We found clinically relevant food allergies in 40 (65%) children to egg and in 22 (35%) to cow's milk. The sensitivity of skin prick test for both milk and egg was 92%, specificity 91%, positive predictive value 35%, and negative predictive value of 93%. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of atopy patch test for both milk and egg were 21%, 73%, 20%, and 74%, respectively. Our study suggests that there is insufficient evidence for the routine use of atopy patch test for the evaluation of egg and cow's milk allergy. OFC remains gold standard for the diagnosis of egg and milk allergy even in the presence of high costs in terms of both time and risks during application. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The value of the UK Clinical Aptitude Test in predicting pre-clinical performance: a prospective cohort study at Nottingham Medical School.

PubMed

Yates, Janet; James, David

2010-07-28

The UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT) was introduced in 2006 as an additional tool for the selection of medical students. It tests mental ability in four distinct domains (Quantitative Reasoning, Verbal Reasoning, Abstract Reasoning, and Decision Analysis), and the results are available to students and admissions panels in advance of the selection process. As yet the predictive validity of the test against course performance is largely unknown.The study objective was to determine whether UKCAT scores predict performance during the first two years of the 5-year undergraduate medical course at Nottingham. We studied a single cohort of students, who entered Nottingham Medical School in October 2007 and had taken the UKCAT. We used linear regression analysis to identify independent predictors of marks for different parts of the 2-year preclinical course. Data were available for 204/260 (78%) of the entry cohort. The UKCAT total score had little predictive value. Quantitative Reasoning was a significant independent predictor of course marks in Theme A ('The Cell'), (p = 0.005), and Verbal Reasoning predicted Theme C ('The Community') (p < 0.001), but otherwise the effects were slight or non-existent. This limited study from a single entry cohort at one medical school suggests that the predictive value of the UKCAT, particularly the total score, is low. Section scores may predict success in specific types of course assessment.The ultimate test of validity will not be available for some years, when current cohorts of students graduate. However, if this test of mental ability does not predict preclinical performance, it is arguably less likely to predict the outcome in the clinical years. Further research from medical schools with different types of curriculum and assessment is needed, with longitudinal studies throughout the course.

Predictive performance of the human Cell Line Activation Test (h-CLAT) for lipophilic chemicals with high octanol-water partition coefficients.

PubMed

Takenouchi, Osamu; Miyazawa, Masaaki; Saito, Kazutoshi; Ashikaga, Takao; Sakaguchi, Hitoshi

2013-01-01

To meet the urgent need for a reliable alternative test for predicting skin sensitizing potential of many chemicals, we have developed a cell-based in vitro test, human Cell Line Activation Test (h-CLAT). However, the predictive performance for lipophilic chemicals in the h-CLAT still remains relatively unknown. Moreover, it's suggested that low water solubility of chemicals might induce false negative outcomes. Thus, in this study, we tested relatively low water soluble 37 chemicals with log Kow values above and below 3.5 in the h-CLAT. The small-scale assessment resulted in nine false negative outcomes for chemicals with log Kow values greater than 3.5. We then created a dataset of 143 chemicals by combining the existing dataset of 106 chemicals and examined the predictive performance of the h-CLAT for chemicals with a log Kow of less than 3.5; a total of 112 chemicals from the 143 chemicals in the dataset. The sensitivity and overall accuracy for the 143 chemicals were 83% and 80%, respectively. In contrast, sensitivity and overall accuracy for the 112 chemicals with log Kow values below 3.5 improved to 94% and 88%, respectively. These data suggested that the h-CLAT could successfully detect sensitizers with log Kow values up to 3.5. When chemicals with log Kow values greater than 3.5 that were deemed positive by h-CLAT were included with the 112 chemicals, the sensitivity and accuracy in terms of the resulting applicable 128 chemicals out of the 143 chemicals became 95% and 88%, respectively. The use of log Kow values gave the h-CLAT a higher predictive performance. Our results demonstrated that the h-CLAT could predict sensitizing potential of various chemicals, which contain lipophilic chemicals using a large-scale chemical dataset.

Health fair screening: the clinical utility of the comprehensive metabolic profile.

PubMed

Alpert, Jeffrey P; Greiner, Allen; Hall, Sandra

2004-01-01

Health fairs are a common method used by providers and health care organizations to provide screening tests, including comprehensive metabolic profiles (CMPs), to asymptomatic individuals. No national organizations currently recommend the complete CMP as a screening test for asymptomatic individuals in primary care settings. This study evaluated the value of CMPs in a health fair setting by measuring the ability of a health fair CMP to predict new medical diagnoses among residents of a sparsely populated rural county. Volunteer participants submitted fasting blood samples at a health fair conducted by a county health center in a county with 2,531 total residents. CMP values were determined to be "normal" or "abnormal" based on laboratory reference ranges and clinical judgment of the health center physicians. Medical records were reviewed 4 months later to determine if participants with abnormal CMP values had been diagnosed with new medical conditions as a result of the screening tests. Analysis was conducted to evaluate CMP test characteristics and determine whether demographic factors or specific CMP values predicted new medical diagnoses in the participants. Out of 478 health fair participants, 73 individuals had at least one abnormal CMP value. The most frequently occurring abnormal value was an elevated glucose level, with Hispanic participants significantly more likely to have this abnormality than whites. After all evaluation was completed, only about 1% of tested subjects had a new diagnosis as a result of the screening CMP test; most abnormal CMP tests did not result in a new diagnosis. The positive predictive value for an abnormal test resulting in a new medical diagnosis was 0.356. Comprehensive metabolic profiles have limited value as a screening tool in asymptomatic populations at health fairs.

Stereo tests as a screening tool for strabismus: which is the best choice?

PubMed Central

Ancona, Chiara; Stoppani, Monica; Odazio, Veronica; La Spina, Carlo; Corradetti, Giulia; Bandello, Francesco

2014-01-01

Purpose To compare four stereo tests (Lang I, Lang II, Titmus, and TNO) and assess their effectiveness. The main focus of this study is to identify the most useful stereo test as a challenging tool in the screening of strabismus. Patients and methods A total of 143 Caucasian subjects, 74 males (52%) and 69 females (48%), aged between 4 years and 78 years (mean age 19.09±15.12 years) were examined at our Strabismus Service (Scientific Institute San Raffaele Hospital, Milan, Italy) and included in this observational cross-sectional study. Subjects recruited in this study were either affected by strabismus, including microstrabismic patients, or healthy volunteers. Subjects affected by ophthalmological diseases, other than strabismus, were excluded. All patients underwent both ophthalmological and orthoptic examination, including stereo tests, Hirschberg Corneal Light Reflex Test, Worth Four-Dot Test, the 4 Prism Diopter Base-Out Test, Cover Testing, Bruckner Test, visual acuity, automated refraction under 1% tropicamide cycloplegia and thereafter, posterior pole evaluation. Results All data were processed using the IBM SPSS Statistics, Version 2.0, to perform all statistical calculations. The main finding of this study is that Lang I stereo test achieved the highest sensitivity (89.8%) and specificity (95.2%) in detecting strabismus, including microstrabismus as well, compared to all the other stereoacuity tests. Furthermore, Lang I is the stereo test with the highest positive predictive value and negative predictive value, both greater than 90%. Conclusion The stereo test with the highest sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value is Lang I. These results suggest its applicability as a screening test for strabismus in people older than 4 years. PMID:25419114

Evaluation of non-animal methods for assessing skin sensitisation hazard: A Bayesian Value-of-Information analysis.

PubMed

Leontaridou, Maria; Gabbert, Silke; Van Ierland, Ekko C; Worth, Andrew P; Landsiedel, Robert

2016-07-01

This paper offers a Bayesian Value-of-Information (VOI) analysis for guiding the development of non-animal testing strategies, balancing information gains from testing with the expected social gains and costs from the adoption of regulatory decisions. Testing is assumed to have value, if, and only if, the information revealed from testing triggers a welfare-improving decision on the use (or non-use) of a substance. As an illustration, our VOI model is applied to a set of five individual non-animal prediction methods used for skin sensitisation hazard assessment, seven battery combinations of these methods, and 236 sequential 2-test and 3-test strategies. Their expected values are quantified and compared to the expected value of the local lymph node assay (LLNA) as the animal method. We find that battery and sequential combinations of non-animal prediction methods reveal a significantly higher expected value than the LLNA. This holds for the entire range of prior beliefs. Furthermore, our results illustrate that the testing strategy with the highest expected value does not necessarily have to follow the order of key events in the sensitisation adverse outcome pathway (AOP). 2016 FRAME.

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) for insecticides: development of predictive in vivo insecticide activity models.

PubMed

Naik, P K; Singh, T; Singh, H

2009-07-01

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analyses were performed independently on data sets belonging to two groups of insecticides, namely the organophosphates and carbamates. Several types of descriptors including topological, spatial, thermodynamic, information content, lead likeness and E-state indices were used to derive quantitative relationships between insecticide activities and structural properties of chemicals. A systematic search approach based on missing value, zero value, simple correlation and multi-collinearity tests as well as the use of a genetic algorithm allowed the optimal selection of the descriptors used to generate the models. The QSAR models developed for both organophosphate and carbamate groups revealed good predictability with r(2) values of 0.949 and 0.838 as well as [image omitted] values of 0.890 and 0.765, respectively. In addition, a linear correlation was observed between the predicted and experimental LD(50) values for the test set data with r(2) of 0.871 and 0.788 for both the organophosphate and carbamate groups, indicating that the prediction accuracy of the QSAR models was acceptable. The models were also tested successfully from external validation criteria. QSAR models developed in this study should help further design of novel potent insecticides.

HPV-testing versus HPV-cytology co-testing to predict the outcome after conization.

PubMed

Bruhn, Laerke Valsøe; Andersen, Sisse Josephine; Hariri, Jalil

2018-06-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of human Papillomavirus (HPV) testing alone as a prognostic tool to predict recurrent disease within a three-year follow-up period after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)2 + . Retrospectively, 128 women with histologically verified CIN2 + who had a conization performed at Southern Jutland Hospital in Denmark between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2013 were included. Histology, cytology and HPV test results were obtained for a three-year follow-up period. 4.7% (6/128) of the cases developed recurrent disease during follow-up. Of the cases without free margins, recurrent dysplasia was detected normal in 10.4% (5/48), whereas in the group with free margins it was 1.3% (1/80). The post-conization HPV test was negative in 67.2% (86/128) and Pap smear normal in 93.7% (120/128). Combining resection margins, cytology and HPV had sensitivity for prediction of recurrent dysplasia of 100%. Specificity was 45.8%, positive predictive value (PPV) 8.5% and negative predictive value (NPV) 100%. Using HPV test alone as a predictor of recurrent dysplasia gave a sensitivity of 83.3%, specificity 69.7%, PPV 11.9% and NPV 98.8%. Combining resection margin and HPV test had a sensitivity of 100%, specificity 45.9%, PPV 8.3% and NPV 100%. HPV test at six months control post-conization gave an NPV of 98.8% and can be used as a solitary test to identify women at risk for recurrent disease three years after treatment for precursor lesions. Using both resection margin and HPV test had a sensitivity of 100% and NPV 100%. Adding cytology did not increase the predictive value. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Residual Strength Predictions with Crack Buckling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dawicke, D. S.; Gullerud, A. S.; Dodds, R. H., Jr.; Hampton, R. W.

1999-01-01

Fracture tests were conducted on middle crack tension, M(T), and compact tension, C(T), specimens of varying widths, constructed from 0.063 inch thick sheets of 2024-T3 aluminum alloy. Guide plates were used to restrict out-of-plane displacements in about half of the tests. Analyses using the three-dimensional, elastic-plastic finite element code WARP3D simulated the tests with and without guide plates using a critical CTOA fracture criterion. The experimental results indicate that crack buckling reduced the failure loads by up to 40%. Using a critical CTOA value of 5.5 deg., the WARP3D analyses predicted the failure loads for the tests with guide plates within +/- 10% of the experimentally measured values. For the M(T) tests without guide plates, the WARP3D analyses predicted the failure loads for the 12 and 24 inch tests within 10%, while over predicting the failure loads for the 40 inch wide tests by about 20%.

Determining predictability and accuracy of thermal and electrical dental pulp tests: An in vivo study.

PubMed

Salgar, Avinash Ramchandra; Singh, Shishir H; Podar, Rajesh S; Kulkarni, Gaurav P; Babel, Shashank N

2017-01-01

Pulp sensitivity testing, even with its limitations and shortcomings, has been and still remains a very helpful aid in endodontic diagnosis. Pulp sensitivity tests extrapolate pulpal health from the sensory response. The aim of the present study was to identify the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (NPVs) of thermal and electrical tests of pulp sensitivity. Pulp tests studied were two cold and heat tests respectively and electrical test. A total of 330 teeth were tested: 198 teeth with vital pulp and 132 teeth with necrotic pulps (disease prevalence of 40%). The ideal standard was established by observing bleeding within the pulp chamber. Sensitivity values of the diagnostic tests were 0.89 and 0.94 for cold test, 0.84 and 0.87 for the heat tests, and 0.75 for electrical pulp test and the specificity values of the diagnostic tests were 0.91 and 0.93 for the cold tests, 0.86 and 0.84 for the heat tests, and 0.90 for electrical pulp test. The NPVs were 0.91 and 0.96 for the cold tests, 0.89 and 0.91 for the heat tests, and 0.84 for electrical pulp test. The positive predictive values were 0.89 and 0.90 for the cold tests, 0.80 and 0.79 for the heat tests and 0.88 for electrical pulp test. The highest accuracy (0.9393) was observed with cold test (icy spray). The cold test done with icy spray was the most accurate method for sensitivity testing.

Analysis of the Sensitivity and Specificity of Noninvasive Imaging Tests for the Diagnosis of Renal Artery Stenosis

PubMed Central

Borelli, Flavio Antonio de Oliveira; Pinto, Ibraim M. F.; Amodeo, Celso; Smanio, Paola E. P.; Kambara, Antonio M.; Petisco, Ana Claudia G.; Moreira, Samuel M.; Paiva, Ricardo Calil; Lopes, Hugo Belotti; Sousa, Amanda G. M. R.

2013-01-01

Background Aging and atherosclerosis are related to renovascular hypertension in elderly individuals. Regardless of comorbidities, renal artery stenosis is itself an important cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Objective To define the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of noninvasive imaging tests used in the diagnosis of renal artery stenosis. Methods In a group of 61 patients recruited, 122 arteries were analized, thus permitting the definition of sensitivity, specificity, and the relative contribution of each imaging study performed (Doppler, scintigraphy and computed tomographic angiography in comparison to renal arteriography). Results The mean age was 65.43 years (standard deviation: 8.7). Of the variables related to the study population that were compared to arteriography, two correlated with renal artery stenosis, renal dysfunction and triglycerides. The median glomerular filtration rate was 52.8 mL/min/m2. Doppler showed sensitivity of 82.90%, specificity of 70%, a positive predictive value of 85% and negative predictive value of 66.70%. For tomography, sensitivity was 66.70%, specificity 80%, positive predictive value 87.50% and negative predictive value 55.20%. With these findings, we could identify the imaging tests that best detected stenosis. Conclusion Tomography and Doppler showed good quality and efficacy in the diagnosis of renal artery stenosis, with Doppler having the advantage of not requiring the use of contrast medium for the assessment of a disease that is common in diabetics and is associated with renal dysfunction and severe left ventricular dysfunction. PMID:24061685

The Sociological and Mathematical Implications of Mandatory Urine Tests for Drug Use in the Work Force.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Janell; Campbell, Richard

1987-01-01

Mandatory drug testing of workers will create problems due to the low predictive ability of urinalysis. The predictive value of drug testing in populations of low drug incidence is illustrated using Bayes' Theorem. (MT)

The value of negative Chlamydia trachomatis antibody in prediction of normal tubes in infertile women.

PubMed

Raoofi, Z; Barchinegad, M; Haghighi, L

2013-01-01

To evaluate the value of Chlamydia trachomatis antibody testing in prediction of at least one normal tube in infertile women. Eighty infertile women without any history of abdominal or pelvic surgery, pelvic inflammatory disease, and endometriosis were recruited in this cross-sectional study from 2009 to 2010. The patients underwent hysterosalpingography, laparoscopy, and anti Chlamydia trachomatis IgG antibody (CAT) testing. We compared laparoscopy findings and CAT regarding sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and predicting value of tubal conditions. The CAT was positive in 50 patients (62.5%) and laparoscopy was positive in 32 patients (40%). The CAT was significantly higher in women with tubal disease (1.88 +/- 0.34) versus in women with normal tubes (1.21 +/- 0.28) (p = 0.003). Five out of 30 sero-negative women had unilateral tubal abnormality and none of them had bilateral tubal obstruction or severe pelvic adhesion. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and accuracy of the CAT in prediction of one normal tube were 100%, 42.25%, 18%, 100%, and 48.75%, respectively. The negative predictive value of CAT to predict at least one normal tube in infertile women without history of abdominal or pelvic surgery, pelvic inflammatory disease, and endometriosis was 100%.

Assessment of HPV-mRNA test to predict recurrent disease in patients previously treated for CIN 2/3.

PubMed

Frega, Antonio; Sesti, Francesco; Lombardi, Danila; Votano, Sergio; Sopracordevole, Francesco; Catalano, Angelica; Milazzo, Giusi Natalia; Lombardo, Riccardo; Assorgi, Chiara; Olivola, Sara; Chiusuri, Valentina; Ricciardi, Enzo; French, Deborah; Moscarini, Massimo

2014-05-01

The use of HPV-mRNA test in the follow-up after LEEP is still matter of debate, with regard to its capacity of prediction relapse. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the reliability of HPV-mRNA test to predict the residual and recurrent disease, and its accuracy in the follow-up of patients treated for CIN 2/3. Multicenter prospective cohort study. Patients who underwent LEEP after a biopsy diagnosing CIN 2/3 were followed at 3, 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. Each check up included cytology, colposcopy, HPV-DNA test (LiPA) and HPV-mRNA test (PreTect HPV Proofer Kit NorChip). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), of HPV-DNA test and HPV-mRNA test to predict relapse, recurrent and residual disease. Using multiple logistic regression, the statistical significant variables as assessed in univariate analysis were entered and investigated as predictors of relapse disease. The mRNA-test in predicting a residual disease had a sensitivity of 52% and a NPV of 91%, whereas DNA-test had 100% and 100%, respectively. On the contrary in the prediction of recurrent disease mRNA-test had a sensitivity and a NPV of 73.5% and 97%, whereas DNA-test had 44% and 93%. On the multivariate analysis, age, cytology, HPV DNA and mRNA test achieved the role of independent predictors of relapse. HPV-mRNA test has a higher sensitivity and a higher NPV in predicting recurrent disease, for this reason it should be used in the follow-up of patients treated with LEEP for CIN 2/3 in order to individualize the timing of check up. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measures of accuracy and performance of diagnostic tests.

PubMed

Drobatz, Kenneth J

2009-05-01

Diagnostic tests are integral to the practice of veterinary cardiology, any other specialty, and general veterinary medicine. Developing and understanding diagnostic tests is one of the cornerstones of clinical research. This manuscript describes the diagnostic test properties including sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, likelihood ratio, receiver operating characteristic curve. Review of practical book chapters and standard statistics manuscripts. Diagnostics such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, likelihood ratio, and receiver operating characteristic curve are described and illustrated. Basic understanding of how diagnostic tests are developed and interpreted is essential in reviewing clinical scientific papers and understanding evidence based medicine.

Diagnostic value of the basophil activation test in evaluating Hymenoptera venom sensitization.

PubMed

Peternelj, Andreja; Silar, Mira; Bajrovic, Nissera; Adamic, Katja; Music, Ema; Kosnik, Mitja; Korosec, Peter

2009-01-01

Diagnosis of allergy to Hymenoptera venom is usually confirmed with skin testing and measurement of specific serum IgE antibody, tests which are sometimes inconclusive. In these cases, additional in vitro tests are necessary. The aim of this study was to show the applicability of the basophil activation test in detecting sensitization to Hymenoptera venom and to compare the test sensitivity and clinical positive-predictive value with skin prick tests and measurement of allergen-specific serum IgE. This prospective study was conducted between June 2004 and December 2007 and included a large group of 204 patients. All patients had a history of at least one systemic allergic reaction of Müller grades II-IV after a Hymenoptera sting. We compared results of the basophil activation test, specific serum IgE and skin prick tests with patients' clinical history and data on culprit insects. The overall clinical sensitivities of the basophil activation test, specific serum IgE and skin prick tests were 90%, 76% and 64%, respectively; the clinical positive-predictive values of the three tests were 79%, 73% and 78% for bee venom, 86%, 59% and 43% for wasp venom; and 84%, 77% and 22% for both venoms. Our results revealed a higher clinical sensitivity and comparable or better clinical positive-predictive value of basophil activation tests than skin prick tests and allergen-specific serum IgE in the detection of allergy to Hymenoptera venom.

Model for forecasting Olea europaea L. airborne pollen in South-West Andalusia, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galán, C.; Cariñanos, Paloma; García-Mozo, Herminia; Alcázar, Purificación; Domínguez-Vilches, Eugenio

Data on predicted average and maximum airborne pollen concentrations and the dates on which these maximum values are expected are of undoubted value to allergists and allergy sufferers, as well as to agronomists. This paper reports on the development of predictive models for calculating total annual pollen output, on the basis of pollen and weather data compiled over the last 19 years (1982-2000) for Córdoba (Spain). Models were tested in order to predict the 2000 pollen season; in addition, and in view of the heavy rainfall recorded in spring 2000, the 1982-1998 data set was used to test the model for 1999. The results of the multiple regression analysis show that the variables exerting the greatest influence on the pollen index were rainfall in March and temperatures over the months prior to the flowering period. For prediction of maximum values and dates on which these values might be expected, the start of the pollen season was used as an additional independent variable. Temperature proved the best variable for this prediction. Results improved when the 5-day moving average was taken into account. Testing of the predictive model for 1999 and 2000 yielded fairly similar results. In both cases, the difference between expected and observed pollen data was no greater than 10%. However, significant differences were recorded between forecast and expected maximum and minimum values, owing to the influence of rainfall during the flowering period.

Prediction of pelvic pathology in subfertile women with combined Chlamydia antibody and CA-125 tests.

PubMed

Penninx, Josien; Brandes, Monique; de Bruin, Jan Peter; Schneeberger, Peter M; Hamilton, Carl J C M

2009-12-01

Chlamydia antibody test (CAT) has been proposed to predict tubal disease. A correlation between CA-125 and the extent of endometriosis has been found by others. In this study we explored whether a combination of the two tests adds to the predictive value of the individual tests for predicting tubal disease or endometriosis. We also used the combination of tests as a new index test to screen for severe pelvic pathology. This retrospective study compares the findings of 240 laparoscopies with the serological test results. Findings were classified according to the existing ASRM scoring systems for adnexal adhesions, distal tubal occlusion and endometriosis. Severe pelvic pathology was defined as the presence of ASRM classes III and IV tubal disease or ASRM classes III and IV endometriosis. The predictive value was calculated for both tests separately and for the combined test. The combined test was positive if at least one test result was abnormal (CAT positive and/or CA-125 > or =35 IU/ml). 67/240 women had tubal disease, 81/240 had some degree of endometriosis. The odds ratios (ORs) of the CAT and the combined test to diagnose severe tubal disease were 6.6 (2.6-17.0) and 7.3 (2.9-19.3), respectively. The ORs of the CA-125 and the combined test to diagnose severe endometriosis were 15.6 (6.2-40.2) and 3.0 (1.2-8.0), respectively. Severe pelvic pathology was present in 65/240 women (27%). The ORs for severe pelvic pathology of the CAT, CA-125 and the combined test were 2.5 (1.4-5.3), 4.9 (1.9-9.6) and 6.6 (3.3-13.4), respectively. If the combined test was normal 15 out 131 women (11%) were shown to have severe pelvic pathology. The combined test adds hardly anything to the predictive value of CAT alone to diagnose severe tubal disease. The combined test is better than the CAT to predict severe pelvic pathology, but is not significantly better than the CA-125. If both the CAT and CA-125 are normal one could consider not performing a laparoscopy.

Does a Dynamic Test of Phonological Awareness Predict Early Reading Difficulties? A Longitudinal Study from Kindergarten through Grade 1

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gellert, Anna S.; Elbro, Carsten

2017-01-01

A few studies have indicated that dynamic measures of phonological awareness may contribute uniquely to the prediction of early reading development. However, standard control measures have been few and limited by floor effects, thus limiting their predictive value. The purpose of the present study was to examine the predictive value of a dynamic…

The Predictive Value of Coefficient of PCT × BG for Anastomotic Leak in Esophageal Carcinoma Patients With ARDS After Esophagectomy.

PubMed

Li, Huan; Wang, Daofeng; Wei, Wenxiao; Ouyang, Lamei; Lou, Ning

2017-01-01

Anastomotic leak was a potentially severe life-threatening complication of esophagectomy, which drew attention in consequence of progressive dyspnea until acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) due to the early asymptomatic presentation. Respiratory failure, caused by ARDS as the severe presentation of anastomotic leak, is the most common organ failure. CRP (C-reactive protein), procalcitonin (PCT), and Blood G (BG) test are the sensitivity markers for inflammatory, sepsis, and fungemia, respectively. Early recognition and intervention treatment of anastomotic leak may alleviate complication and improve outcome. We retrospectively analyzed 71 patients, accepting mechanical ventilation support because of ARDS as the complication after radical resection of esophagus cancer. Clinical data were collected from the patients' electronic medical records, including their clinically hematological examination, drainage fluid cultures, and sputum culture. Accord to appearance of anastomotic leak or not, all patients were divided into 2 groups, leak group and no-leak group. Inflammatory markers, such as CRP, PCT, and the coefficient of BG and PCT, were significantly different between the 2 groups. Respiratory index, white blood cell, hemoglobin (HBG), platelet (PLT), and other clinical factors were not significantly different between the 2 groups. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed to calculate the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the curve for various cutoff levels of several factors. Blood G tests presented the better predicting value for anastomotic leak. Blood G tests and PCT should be tested after esophagectomy. The coefficient of PCT and BG (>260) is of great significance, and clinical value to predict anastomotic leak for patients with postesophagectomy ARDS, early PCT and BG test, and especially, dynamic variation may alleviate complication and improve outcome.

Class-Related Emotions in Secondary Physical Education: A Control-Value Theory Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simonton, Kelly L.; Garn, Alex C.; Solmon, Melinda Ann

2017-01-01

Purpose: Grounded in control-value theory, a model of students' achievement emotions in physical education (PE) was investigated. Methods: A path analysis tested hypotheses that students' (N = 529) perceptions of teacher responsiveness, assertiveness, and clarity predict control and value beliefs which, in turn, predict enjoyment and boredom.…

NP-59 test for preoperative localization of primary hyperaldosteronism.

PubMed

Di Martino, Marcello; García Sanz, Iñigo; Muñoz de Nova, Jose Luis; Marín Campos, Cristina; Martínez Martín, Miguel; Domínguez Gadea, Luis

2017-03-01

Adrenal venous sampling is generally considered the gold standard to identify unilateral hormone production in cases of primary hyperaldosteronism. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether the iodine-131-6-β-iodomethyl-19-norcholesterol (NP-59) test may represent an alternative in selected cases. Patients submitted to laparoscopic adrenalectomy for suspected primary hyperaldosteronism (n = 27) were retrospectively reviewed. When nuclear medicine tests were preoperatively performed, their results were compared with the histopathologic findings and clinical improvement. Nuclear medicine tests were realized in 13 patients. In 11 (84.6%), a planar anterior and posterior NP-59 scintigraphy was performed and a SPECT/TC in two (15.4%). Scintigraphy indicated a preoperative lateralization in 12 out of 13 patients (92.3%). When the value of NP-59 tests was based on pathologic results, it showed a sensitivity of 90.9% and a positive predictive value of 83.3%. When the nuclear medicine test's performance was based on postoperative blood pressure control, both sensitivity and positive predictive value were 91.6%. Nuclear medicine tests represent a useful tool in the preoperative localisation of primary hyperaldosteronism with a high sensitivity and positive predictive value. In patients with contraindications to adrenal venous sampling like contrast allergies, or when it is inconclusive, scintigraphy can represent a useful and non-invasive alternative.

Can administrative health utilisation data provide an accurate diabetes prevalence estimate for a geographical region?

PubMed

Chan, Wing Cheuk; Papaconstantinou, Dean; Lee, Mildred; Telfer, Kendra; Jo, Emmanuel; Drury, Paul L; Tobias, Martin

2018-05-01

To validate the New Zealand Ministry of Health (MoH) Virtual Diabetes Register (VDR) using longitudinal laboratory results and to develop an improved algorithm for estimating diabetes prevalence at a population level. The assigned diabetes status of individuals based on the 2014 version of the MoH VDR is compared to the diabetes status based on the laboratory results stored in the Auckland regional laboratory result repository (TestSafe) using the New Zealand diabetes diagnostic criteria. The existing VDR algorithm is refined by reviewing the sensitivity and positive predictive value of the each of the VDR algorithm rules individually and as a combination. The diabetes prevalence estimate based on the original 2014 MoH VDR was 17% higher (n = 108,505) than the corresponding TestSafe prevalence estimate (n = 92,707). Compared to the diabetes prevalence based on TestSafe, the original VDR has a sensitivity of 89%, specificity of 96%, positive predictive value of 76% and negative predictive value of 98%. The modified VDR algorithm has improved the positive predictive value by 6.1% and the specificity by 1.4% with modest reductions in sensitivity of 2.2% and negative predictive value of 0.3%. At an aggregated level the overall diabetes prevalence estimated by the modified VDR is 5.7% higher than the corresponding estimate based on TestSafe. The Ministry of Health Virtual Diabetes Register algorithm has been refined to provide a more accurate diabetes prevalence estimate at a population level. The comparison highlights the potential value of a national population long term condition register constructed from both laboratory results and administrative data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of dental pulp sensibility tests in a clinical setting.

PubMed

Jespersen, James J; Hellstein, John; Williamson, Anne; Johnson, William T; Qian, Fang

2014-03-01

The goal of this project was to evaluate the performance of dental pulp sensibility testing with Endo Ice (1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane) and an electric pulp tester (EPT) and to determine the effect of several variables on the reliability of these tests. Data were collected from 656 patients seen in the University of Iowa College of Dentistry Endodontic graduate clinic. The results of pulpal sensibility tests, along with the tooth number, age, sex, number of restored surfaces, presence or absence of clinical or radiographic caries, and reported recent use of analgesic medications, were recorded. The presence of vital tissue within the pulp chamber was used to verify the diagnosis. The Endo Ice results showed accuracy, 0.904; sensitivity, 0.916; specificity, 0.896; positive predictive value, 0.862; and negative predictive value, 0.937. The EPT results showed accuracy, 0.75; sensitivity, 0.84; specificity, 0.74; positive predictive value, 0.58; and negative predictive value, 0.90. Patients aged 21-50 years exhibited a more accurate response to cold testing (P = .0043). Vital teeth with caries responded more accurately to cold testing (P = .0077). There was no statistically significant difference noted with any other variable examined. Pulpal sensibility testing with Endo Ice and EPT are accurate and reliable methods of determining pulpal vitality. Patients aged 21-50 exhibited a more accurate response to cold. Sex, tooth type, number of restored surfaces, presence of caries, and recent analgesic use did not significantly alter the results of pulpal sensibility testing in this study. Copyright © 2014 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reassessment of the positive predictive value and specificity of Xpert MTB/RIF: a diagnostic accuracy study in the context of community-wide screening for tuberculosis.

PubMed

Ho, Jennifer; Nguyen, Phuong Thi Bich; Nguyen, Thu Anh; Tran, Khoa Hien; Van Nguyen, Son; Nguyen, Nhung Viet; Nguyen, Hoa Binh; Luu, Khanh Boi; Fox, Greg J; Marks, Guy B

2016-09-01

Community-wide screening for tuberculosis with Xpert MTB/RIF as a primary screening tool overcomes some of the limitations of conventional screening. However, concerns exist about the low positive predictive value of this test in screening settings. We did a cross-sectional assessment of this diagnostic test to directly estimate the actual positive predictive value of Xpert MTB/RIF when used in the setting of community-wide screening for tuberculosis, and to draw an inference about the specificity of the test for tuberculosis detection. Field staff visited households in 60 randomly selected villages in Ca Mau province, Vietnam. We included people aged 15 years or older who provided written informed consent and were able to produce 0·5 mL or more of sputum, irrespective of reported symptoms. Participants were tested with Xpert MTB/RIF, then those with positive results had two further sputum samples tested for smear microscopy and culture, and underwent chest radiography at the provincial TB Health Center. The positive predictive value of Xpert MTB/RIF was compared against two reference standards for tuberculosis diagnosis-a positive sputum culture for Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and a positive sputum culture or a chest radiograph consistent with active pulmonary tuberculosis. We then calculated the specificity of Xpert MTB/RIF for tuberculosis detection on the basis of these positive predictive values and disease prevalence in this setting. 43 435 adults consented to screening with Xpert MTB/RIF. Sputum samples of 0·5 mL or greater were collected from 23 202 participants, producing 22 673 valid results. 169 participants had positive Xpert MTB/RIF results (0·39% of those screened and 0·75% of those with valid sputum results). The positive predictive value of Xpert MTB/RIF was 61·0% (95% CI 52·8-68·7) when compared against a positive sputum culture and 83·9% (76·8-89·2) when compared against a positive sputum culture or chest radiograph consistent with active tuberculosis. On the basis of these positive predictive values, the specificity of Xpert MTB/RIF was determined to be between 99·78% (95% CI 99·71-99·84) and 99·93% (99·88-99·96). The positive predictive value and specificity of Xpert MTB/RIF in the context of community-wide screening for tuberculosis is substantially higher than that predicted in previous studies. Our findings support the potential role of Xpert MTB/RIF as a primary screening tool to detect prevalent cases of tuberculosis in the community. Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA-Langley Research Center's participation in a round-robin comparison between some current crack-propagation prediction methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hudson, C. M.; Lewis, P. E.

1979-01-01

A round-robin study was conducted which evaluated and compared different methods currently in practice for predicting crack growth in surface-cracked specimens. This report describes the prediction methods used by the Fracture Mechanics Engineering Section, at NASA-Langley Research Center, and presents a comparison between predicted crack growth and crack growth observed in laboratory experiments. For tests at higher stress levels, the correlation between predicted and experimentally determined crack growth was generally quite good. For tests at lower stress levels, the predicted number of cycles to reach a given crack length was consistently higher than the experimentally determined number of cycles. This consistent overestimation of the number of cycles could have resulted from a lack of definition of crack-growth data at low values of the stress intensity range. Generally, the predicted critical flaw sizes were smaller than the experimentally determined critical flaw sizes. This underestimation probably resulted from using plane-strain fracture toughness values to predict failure rather than the more appropriate values based on maximum load.

Prediction of kinase-inhibitor binding affinity using energetic parameters

PubMed Central

Usha, Singaravelu; Selvaraj, Samuel

2016-01-01

The combination of physicochemical properties and energetic parameters derived from protein-ligand complexes play a vital role in determining the biological activity of a molecule. In the present work, protein-ligand interaction energy along with logP values was used to predict the experimental log (IC50) values of 25 different kinase-inhibitors using multiple regressions which gave a correlation coefficient of 0.93. The regression equation obtained was tested on 93 kinase-inhibitor complexes and an average deviation of 0.92 from the experimental log IC50 values was shown. The same set of descriptors was used to predict binding affinities for a test set of five individual kinase families, with correlation values > 0.9. We show that the protein-ligand interaction energies and partition coefficient values form the major deterministic factors for binding affinity of the ligand for its receptor. PMID:28149052

Accurate prediction of acute fish toxicity of fragrance chemicals with the RTgill-W1 cell assay.

PubMed

Natsch, Andreas; Laue, Heike; Haupt, Tina; von Niederhäusern, Valentin; Sanders, Gordon

2018-03-01

Testing for acute fish toxicity is an integral part of the environmental safety assessment of chemicals. A true replacement of primary fish tissue was recently proposed using cell viability in a fish gill cell line (RTgill-W1) as a means of predicting acute toxicity, showing good predictivity on 35 chemicals. To promote regulatory acceptance, the predictivity and applicability domain of novel tests need to be carefully evaluated on chemicals with existing high-quality in vivo data. We applied the RTgill-W1 cell assay to 38 fragrance chemicals with a wide range of both physicochemical properties and median lethal concentration (LC50) values and representing a diverse range of chemistries. A strong correlation (R 2  = 0.90-0.94) between the logarithmic in vivo LC50 values, based on fish mortality, and the logarithmic in vitro median effect concentration (EC50) values based on cell viability was observed. A leave-one-out analysis illustrates a median under-/overprediction from in vitro EC50 values to in vivo LC50 values by a factor of 1.5. This assay offers a simple, accurate, and reliable alternative to in vivo acute fish toxicity testing for chemicals, presumably acting mainly by a narcotic mode of action. Furthermore, the present study provides validation of the predictivity of the RTgill-W1 assay on a completely independent set of chemicals that had not been previously tested and indicates that fragrance chemicals are clearly within the applicability domain. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:931-941. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Virtual World Currency Value Fluctuation Prediction System Based on User Sentiment Analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Young Bin; Lee, Sang Hyeok; Kang, Shin Jin; Choi, Myung Jin; Lee, Jung; Kim, Chang Hun

2015-01-01

In this paper, we present a method for predicting the value of virtual currencies used in virtual gaming environments that support multiple users, such as massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs). Predicting virtual currency values in a virtual gaming environment has rarely been explored; it is difficult to apply real-world methods for predicting fluctuating currency values or shares to the virtual gaming world on account of differences in domains between the two worlds. To address this issue, we herein predict virtual currency value fluctuations by collecting user opinion data from a virtual community and analyzing user sentiments or emotions from the opinion data. The proposed method is straightforward and applicable to predicting virtual currencies as well as to gaming environments, including MMORPGs. We test the proposed method using large-scale MMORPGs and demonstrate that virtual currencies can be effectively and efficiently predicted with it.

Virtual World Currency Value Fluctuation Prediction System Based on User Sentiment Analysis

PubMed Central

Kim, Young Bin; Lee, Sang Hyeok; Kang, Shin Jin; Choi, Myung Jin; Lee, Jung; Kim, Chang Hun

2015-01-01

In this paper, we present a method for predicting the value of virtual currencies used in virtual gaming environments that support multiple users, such as massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs). Predicting virtual currency values in a virtual gaming environment has rarely been explored; it is difficult to apply real-world methods for predicting fluctuating currency values or shares to the virtual gaming world on account of differences in domains between the two worlds. To address this issue, we herein predict virtual currency value fluctuations by collecting user opinion data from a virtual community and analyzing user sentiments or emotions from the opinion data. The proposed method is straightforward and applicable to predicting virtual currencies as well as to gaming environments, including MMORPGs. We test the proposed method using large-scale MMORPGs and demonstrate that virtual currencies can be effectively and efficiently predicted with it. PMID:26241496

[Efficacy of stool antigen and serologic tests in the diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori in Ecuadorian population].

PubMed

Gómez, Néstor A; Alvarez, Ludwig R; Zapatier, Jorge A; Vargas, Paola E

2005-01-01

To assess the effectiveness in the Ecuadorian population of 2 non-invasive methods for the detection of the Helicobacter pylori: the stool antigens immunoassay (HpSAg) and the determination IgG serum of'antibodies. Eighty six dyspeptic patients were evaluated. In each, Helicobacter pylori presence was investigated with three methods: histology, HpSAg and serology. Sensibility and specificity values were obtained, as well as the positive and negative predictive values. The prevalence of Helicobacter pylori with the 3 tests was 89.53%. The sensibility, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were: 42.5%, 69.2%, 88.6% and 17.6% with histology; 69.2%, 42.9%, 78.9% and 31% with HpSAg; 64.2%, 47.7%, 81.1% and 27.3% with serology. In the highly prevalent Ecuadorian setting, HpSAg and serology have relative low sensibility and specificity values. Based on our results, it is necessary to assess for conditions that could alter their results, and strategies to increase the sensibility of these tests, including the histology.

Assessing value of innovative molecular diagnostic tests in the concept of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine.

PubMed

Akhmetov, Ildar; Bubnov, Rostyslav V

2015-01-01

Molecular diagnostic tests drive the scientific and technological uplift in the field of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine offering invaluable clinical and socioeconomic benefits to the key stakeholders. Although the results of diagnostic tests are immensely influential, molecular diagnostic tests (MDx) are still grudgingly reimbursed by payers and amount for less than 5 % of the overall healthcare costs. This paper aims at defining the value of molecular diagnostic test and outlining the most important components of "value" from miscellaneous assessment frameworks, which go beyond accuracy and feasibility and impact the clinical adoption, informing healthcare resource allocation decisions. The authors suggest that the industry should facilitate discussions with various stakeholders throughout the entire assessment process in order to arrive at a consensus about the depth of evidence required for positive marketing authorization or reimbursement decisions. In light of the evolving "value-based healthcare" delivery practices, it is also recommended to account for social and ethical parameters of value, since these are anticipated to become as critical for reimbursement decisions and test acceptance as economic and clinical criteria.

Pretest variables that improve the predictive value of exercise testing in women.

PubMed

Lamont, L S; Bobb, J; Blissmer, B; Desai, V

2015-12-01

Graded exercise testing (GXT) is used in coronary artery disease (CAD) prevention and rehabilitation programs. In women, this test has a decreased accuracy and predictive value but there are few studies that examine the predictors of a verified positive test. The aim of this study was to determine those pretest variables that might enhance the predictive value of the GXT in women clients. Medical records of 1761 patients referred for GXT's over a 5 yr period of time were screened. Demographic, medical, and exercise test variables were analyzed. The GXT's of 403 women were available for inclusion and they were stratified into 3 groups: positive responders that were subsequently shown to have CAD (N.=28 verified positive [VP]), positive responders that were not shown to have CAD (N.=84 non-verified positive [NVP]) and negative GXT responders (N.=291). Both univariate and a multivariate step-wise regression statistics were performed on this data. Pretest variables that differentiated between VP and NVP groups are: (an older age=65.8 vs. 60.2 yrs. P<0.05; a greater BMI=30.8 vs. 28.8 kg/m2; diabetes status or an elevated fasting glucose =107.4 vs. 95.2 mg/dL P<0.05; and the use of some cardiovascular medications. Our subsequent linear regression analysis emphasized that HDL cholesterol and beta blocker usage were the most predictive of a positive exercise test in this cohort. The American Heart Association recommends GXT's in women with an intermediate pretest probability of CAD. But there are only two clinical variables available prior to testing to make this probability decision: age and quality of chest pain. This study outlined that other pre-exercise test variables such as: BMI, blood chemistry (glucose and lipoprotein levels) and the use of cardiovascular medications are useful in clinical decision making. These pre-exercise test variables improved the predictive value of the GXT's in our sample.

Retrospective Review of Treponema pallidum PCR and Serology Results: Are Both Tests Necessary?

PubMed

Brischetto, Anna; Gassiep, Ian; Whiley, David; Norton, Robert

2018-05-01

There has been a resurgence of syphilis diagnoses in Australia. We investigated whether our Treponema pallidum PCR test provides any additional diagnostic information over syphilis serology (chemiluminescence immunoassay [CMIA], Treponema pallidum particle agglutination [TPPA] assay, and the rapid plasma reagin [RPR] flocculation test). A retrospective audit of all T. pallidum PCR requests that came through our laboratory from January 2010 to June 2017 was conducted; data collected included age, gender, site of swab, and results from T. pallidum PCR, syphilis serology, and herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV-1) and HSV-2 PCRs. A total of 441 T. pallidum PCR tests were performed; on average, 3 T. pallidum PCRs per month were requested in 2011, and this rate increased to 17.2 requests per month in 2017. A total of 323 patients had both T. pallidum PCR and syphilis serology performed, with 67% of swabs taken from the genitals. T. pallidum PCR gave positive results for 61/323 (19%) patients; of these 61 patients, 59 (97%) also had positive syphilis serology results ( T. pallidum PCR sensitivity, 68%; specificity, 99%; positive predictive value, 97%; negative predictive value, 89%). Syphilis serology was positive for 91/323 patients (28%); of these 91 patients, 61 (66%) were also T. pallidum PCR positive (syphilis serology sensitivity, 97%; specificity, 88%; positive predictive value, 60%; negative predictive value, 99%). The Cohen's kappa value was 0.74, indicating substantial agreement between the two tests. Our results show that most patients with positive T. pallidum PCR results also had positive syphilis serology. Therefore, T. pallidum PCR adds little clinical value over serology for the diagnosis of syphilis in certain clinical settings. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Microbiology.

Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predictive Values: Foundations, Pliabilities, and Pitfalls in Research and Practice

PubMed Central

Trevethan, Robert

2017-01-01

Within the context of screening tests, it is important to avoid misconceptions about sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. In this article, therefore, foundations are first established concerning these metrics along with the first of several aspects of pliability that should be recognized in relation to those metrics. Clarification is then provided about the definitions of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values and why researchers and clinicians can misunderstand and misrepresent them. Arguments are made that sensitivity and specificity should usually be applied only in the context of describing a screening test’s attributes relative to a reference standard; that predictive values are more appropriate and informative in actual screening contexts, but that sensitivity and specificity can be used for screening decisions about individual people if they are extremely high; that predictive values need not always be high and might be used to advantage by adjusting the sensitivity and specificity of screening tests; that, in screening contexts, researchers should provide information about all four metrics and how they were derived; and that, where necessary, consumers of health research should have the skills to interpret those metrics effectively for maximum benefit to clients and the healthcare system. PMID:29209603

Exercise testing after beta-blockade: improved specificity and predictive value in detecting coronary heart disease.

PubMed Central

Marcomichelakis, J; Donaldson, R; Green, J; Joseph, S; Kelly, H B; Taggart, P; Somerville, W

1980-01-01

The value of exercise testing in detecting myocardial ischaemia resulting from coronary atheroma remains controversial. In order to increase the reliability of exercise testing, all its components (asymptomatic, haemodynamic, and electrocardiographic) have been scrutinised. In this study, concerned only with the electrocardiographic response to exercise, the incorporation of beta-blockade into the standard exercise procedure has improved specificity and predictive value without affecting sensitivity. Fifty patients with anginal pain and 50 asymptomatic subjects with an abnormal electrocardiogram were investigated by exercise testing before and after beta-blockade (oxprenolol). All subjects had coronary arteriograms and left ventriculograms, and the results of exercise testing were related to the presence or absence of obstructive coronary artery disease. Possible causes of false positive exercise tests were eliminated by echocardiography. Though beta-blockade was unreliable in distinguishing ischaemic from non-ischaemic resting electrocardiograms, it eliminated all the false positive electrocardiographic responses to exercise in both groups and did not abolish any of the true positive electrocardiographic responses. Thus, specificity and predictive value were improved without reduction in sensitivity. This technique may not necessarily be applicable to other groups of patients or to a random population, but the results of this study suggest it will be a useful additional routine procedure in the investigation of coronary heart disease. PMID:7437172

[Predictive value of preoperative tests in estimating difficult intubation in patients who underwent direct laryngoscopy in ear, nose, and throat surgery].

PubMed

Karakus, Osman; Kaya, Cengiz; Ustun, Faik Emre; Koksal, Ersin; Ustun, Yasemin Burcu

2015-01-01

Predictive value of preoperative tests in estimating difficult intubation may differ in the laryngeal pathologies. Patients who had undergone direct laryngoscopy (DL) were reviewed, and predictive value of preoperative tests in estimating difficult intubation was investigated. Preoperative, and intraoperative anesthesia record forms, and computerized system of the hospital were screened. A total of 2611 patients were assessed. In 7.4% of the patients, difficult intubations were detected. Difficult intubations were encountered in some of the patients with Mallampati scoring (MS) system Class 4 (50%), Cormack-Lehane classification (CLS) Grade 4 (95.7%), previous knowledge of difficult airway (86.2%), restricted neck movements (cervical ROM) (75.8%), short thyromental distance (TMD) (81.6%), vocal cord mass (49.5%) as indicated in parentheses (p<0.0001). MS had a low sensitivity, while restricted cervical ROM, presence of a vocal cord mass, short thyromental distance, and MS each had a relatively higher positive predictive value. Incidence of difficult intubations increased 6.159 and 1.736-fold with each level of increase in CLS grade and MS class, respectively. When all tests were considered in combination difficult intubation could be classified accurately in 96.3% of the cases. Test results predicting difficult intubations in cases with DL had observedly overlapped with the results provided in the literature for the patient populations in general. Differences in some test results when compared with those of the general population might stem from the concomitant underlying laryngeal pathological conditions in patient populations with difficult intubation. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Anestesiologia. Publicado por Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Can overt diabetes mellitus be predicted by an early A1C value in gestational diabetics?

PubMed

Granada, Catalina; Forbes, Joanna; Sangi-Haghpeykar, Haleh; Davidson, Christina

2014-01-01

To test the hypothesis that a hemoglobin A1C value (A1C) in early pregnancy is predictive of overt diabetes mellitus (DM) postpartum in women with gestational diabetes (GDM). In this case-control analysis of women with an early pregnancy diagnosis of GDM, we estimated the association between an early pregnancy A1C and subsequent diagnosis of DM. Women with a normal postpartum diabetic screen (controls) were compared against those with confirmed postpartum DM (cases). Ability of A1C levels to predict DM was examined via logistic regression analysis and corresponding receiver operating characteristic values. During the 10-year study period 166 women met the inclusion criteria: 140 (84%) had normal postpartum testing (controls), and 26 (16%) were diagnosed with DM (cases). The mean A1C value was significantly higher among cases than controls (6.7 vs. 5.6, p < 0.0001, SD 1.3-5). Cases had A1Cs ranging from 5.5- 11.7%, while controls had A1Cs ranging from 4.3-7.8%. The best discriminatory cut point for postpartum DM was an A1C > 5.9% (sensitivity 81%, specificity 83%, positive predictive value 47%, negative predictive value Our findings suggest that an elevated early pregnancy A1C may be predictive of overt DM. Larger studies are needed to further validate this association.

The accuracy of HIV rapid testing in integrated bio-behavioral surveys of men who have sex with men across 5 Provinces in South Africa

PubMed Central

Kufa, Tendesayi; Lane, Tim; Manyuchi, Albert; Singh, Beverley; Isdahl, Zachary; Osmand, Thomas; Grasso, Mike; Struthers, Helen; McIntyre, James; Chipeta, Zawadi; Puren, Adrian

2017-01-01

Abstract We describe the accuracy of serial rapid HIV testing among men who have sex with men (MSM) in South Africa and discuss the implications for HIV testing and prevention. This was a cross-sectional survey conducted at five stand-alone facilities from five provinces. Demographic, behavioral, and clinical data were collected. Dried blood spots were obtained for HIV-related testing. Participants were offered rapid HIV testing using 2 rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in series. In the laboratory, reference HIV testing was conducted using a third-generation enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and a fourth-generation EIA as confirmatory. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, false-positive, and false-negative rates were determined. Between August 2015 and July 2016, 2503 participants were enrolled. Of these, 2343 were tested by RDT on site with a further 2137 (91.2%) having definitive results on both RDT and EIA. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, false-positive rates, and false-negative rates were 92.6% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 89.6–94.8], 99.4% (95% CI 98.9–99.7), 97.4% (95% CI 95.2–98.6), 98.3% (95% CI 97.6–98.8), 0.6% (95% CI 0.3–1.1), and 7.4% (95% CI 5.2–10.4), respectively. False negatives were similar to true positives with respect to virological profiles. Overall accuracy of the RDT algorithm was high, but sensitivity was lower than expected. Post-HIV test counseling should include discussions of possible false-negative results and the need for retesting among HIV negatives. PMID:28700474

Evaluating the High Risk Groups for Suicide: A Comparison of Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree and Artificial Neural Network

PubMed Central

AMINI, Payam; AHMADINIA, Hasan; POOROLAJAL, Jalal; MOQADDASI AMIRI, Mohammad

2016-01-01

Background: We aimed to assess the high-risk group for suicide using different classification methods includinglogistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM). Methods: We used the dataset of a study conducted to predict risk factors of completed suicide in Hamadan Province, the west of Iran, in 2010. To evaluate the high-risk groups for suicide, LR, SVM, DT and ANN were performed. The applied methods were compared using sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted value, negative predicted value, accuracy and the area under curve. Cochran-Q test was implied to check differences in proportion among methods. To assess the association between the observed and predicted values, Ø coefficient, contingency coefficient, and Kendall tau-b were calculated. Results: Gender, age, and job were the most important risk factors for fatal suicide attempts in common for four methods. SVM method showed the highest accuracy 0.68 and 0.67 for training and testing sample, respectively. However, this method resulted in the highest specificity (0.67 for training and 0.68 for testing sample) and the highest sensitivity for training sample (0.85), but the lowest sensitivity for the testing sample (0.53). Cochran-Q test resulted in differences between proportions in different methods (P<0.001). The association of SVM predictions and observed values, Ø coefficient, contingency coefficient, and Kendall tau-b were 0.239, 0.232 and 0.239, respectively. Conclusion: SVM had the best performance to classify fatal suicide attempts comparing to DT, LR and ANN. PMID:27957463

Positive predictive value estimates for cell-free noninvasive prenatal screening from data of a large referral genetic diagnostic laboratory.

PubMed

Petersen, Andrea K; Cheung, Sau Wai; Smith, Janice L; Bi, Weimin; Ward, Patricia A; Peacock, Sandra; Braxton, Alicia; Van Den Veyver, Ignatia B; Breman, Amy M

2017-12-01

Since its debut in 2011, cell-free fetal DNA screening has undergone rapid expansion with respect to both utilization and coverage. However, conclusive data regarding the clinical validity and utility of this screening tool, both for the originally included common autosomal and sex-chromosomal aneuploidies as well as the more recently added chromosomal microdeletion syndromes, have lagged behind. Thus, there is a continued need to educate clinicians and patients about the current benefits and limitations of this screening tool to inform pre- and posttest counseling, pre/perinatal decision making, and medical risk assessment/management. The objective of this study was to determine the positive predictive value and false-positive rates for different chromosomal abnormalities identified by cell-free fetal DNA screening using a large data set of diagnostic testing results on invasive samples submitted to the laboratory for confirmatory studies. We tested 712 patient samples sent to our laboratory to confirm a cell-free fetal DNA screening result, indicating high risk for a chromosome abnormality. We compiled data from all cases in which the indication for confirmatory testing was a positive cell-free fetal DNA screen, including the common trisomies, sex chromosomal aneuploidies, microdeletion syndromes, and other large genome-wide copy number abnormalities. Testing modalities included fluorescence in situ hybridization, G-banded karyotype, and/or chromosomal microarray analysis performed on chorionic villus samples, amniotic fluid, or postnatally obtained blood samples. Positive predictive values and false-positive rates were calculated from tabulated data. The positive predictive values for trisomy 13, 18, and 21 were consistent with previous reports at 45%, 76%, and 84%, respectively. For the microdeletion syndrome regions, positive predictive values ranged from 0% for detection of Cri-du-Chat syndrome and Prader-Willi/Angelman syndrome to 14% for 1p36 deletion syndrome and 21% for 22q11.2 deletion syndrome. Detection of sex chromosomal aneuploidies had positive predictive values of 26% for monosomy X, 50% for 47,XXX, and 86% for 47,XXY. The positive predictive values for detection of common autosomal and sex chromosomal aneuploidies by cell-free fetal DNA screening were comparable with other studies. Identification of microdeletions was associated with lower positive predictive values and higher false-positive rates, likely because of the low prevalence of the individual targeted microdeletion syndromes in the general population. Although the obtained positive predictive values compare favorably with those seen in traditional screening approaches for common aneuploidies, they highlight the importance of educating clinicians and patients on the limitations of cell-free fetal DNA screening tests. Improvement of the cell-free fetal DNA screening technology and continued monitoring of its performance after introduction into clinical practice will be important to fully establish its clinical utility. Nonetheless, our data provide valuable information that may aid result interpretation, patient counseling, and clinical decision making/management. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Data Analysis and Its Impact on Predicting Schedule & Cost Risk

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-01

variance of the error term by performing a Breusch - Pagan test for constant variance (Neter et al., 1996:239). In order to test the normality of...is constant variance. Using Microsoft Excel®, we calculate a p- 68 value of 0.225678 for the Breusch - Pagan test . We again compare this p-value to...calculate a p-value of 0.121211092 Breusch - Pagan test . We again compare this p-value to an alpha of 0.05 indicating our assumption of constant variance

Is the Factor-of-2 Rule Broadly Applicable for Evaluating the Prediction Accuracy of Metal-Toxicity Models?

PubMed

Meyer, Joseph S; Traudt, Elizabeth M; Ranville, James F

2018-01-01

In aquatic toxicology, a toxicity-prediction model is generally deemed acceptable if its predicted median lethal concentrations (LC50 values) or median effect concentrations (EC50 values) are within a factor of 2 of their paired, observed LC50 or EC50 values. However, that rule of thumb is based on results from only two studies: multiple LC50 values for the fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) exposed to Cu in one type of exposure water, and multiple EC50 values for Daphnia magna exposed to Zn in another type of exposure water. We tested whether the factor-of-2 rule of thumb also is supported in a different dataset in which D. magna were exposed separately to Cd, Cu, Ni, or Zn. Overall, the factor-of-2 rule of thumb appeared to be a good guide to evaluating the acceptability of a toxicity model's underprediction or overprediction of observed LC50 or EC50 values in these acute toxicity tests.

Anticipatory Monitoring and Control of Complex Systems using a Fuzzy based Fusion of Support Vector Regressors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miltiadis Alamaniotis; Vivek Agarwal

This paper places itself in the realm of anticipatory systems and envisions monitoring and control methods being capable of making predictions over system critical parameters. Anticipatory systems allow intelligent control of complex systems by predicting their future state. In the current work, an intelligent model aimed at implementing anticipatory monitoring and control in energy industry is presented and tested. More particularly, a set of support vector regressors (SVRs) are trained using both historical and observed data. The trained SVRs are used to predict the future value of the system based on current operational system parameter. The predicted values are thenmore » inputted to a fuzzy logic based module where the values are fused to obtain a single value, i.e., final system output prediction. The methodology is tested on real turbine degradation datasets. The outcome of the approach presented in this paper highlights the superiority over single support vector regressors. In addition, it is shown that appropriate selection of fuzzy sets and fuzzy rules plays an important role in improving system performance.« less

Prospective evaluation of a screening protocol to exclude deep vein thrombosis on the basis of a combination of quantitative D-dimer testing and pretest clinical probability score.

PubMed

Yamaki, Takashi; Nozaki, Motohiro; Sakurai, Hiroyuki; Takeuchi, Masaki; Soejima, Kazutaka; Kono, Taro

2005-11-01

Clinical signs and symptoms such as swelling, pain, and redness are unreliable markers of deep vein thrombosis (DVT). Because of this venous duplex scanning (VDS) has been heavily used in DVT detection. The purpose of this study was to determine if a combination of D-dimer testing and pretest clinical score could reduce the use of VDS in symptomatic patients with suspected DVT. One hundred seventy-four consecutive patients with suspected DVT were prospectively evaluated using pretest clinical probability (PCP) score and D-dimer testing before VDS. After calculating clinical probability scores developed by Wells and associates, patients were divided into low risk (or=3 points) PCP. One hundred fifty-eight patients were enrolled. The prevalence of DVT in this study was 37%. Thirty-eight patients (24%) were classified as low risk, 64 (41%) as moderate risk, and 56 (35%) as high risk PCP. DVT was identified in only one patient (2.6%) with low risk PCP. In contrast, DVT was found in 22 (34%) with moderate risk, and 35 (63%) with high risk PCP. In the high and moderate risk PCP groups, positive scan patients had a markedly higher value of D-dimer assay than negative scan patients (p=0.0001 and p=0.0057, respectively). In the low risk PCP patients, D-dimer testing provided 100% sensitivity, 46% specificity, 4.8% positive predictive value, and 100% negative predictive value in the diagnosis of DVT. Similarly, in the moderate risk PCP, the D-dimer testing showed 100% sensitivity, 45% specificity, 49% positive predictive value, and 100% negative predictive value. In the high risk group, D-dimer testing achieved 100% sensitivity, 57% specificity, 80% positive predictive value, and 100% negative predictive value in the diagnosis of DVT. These results suggested that 36 of 158 patients who had a non-high PCP (low and moderate PCP) and a normal D-dimer concentration were considered to have no additional investigation, so VDS could have been reduced by 23% (36/158). A combination of D-dimer testing and clinical probability score may be effective in avoiding unnecessary VDS in suspected symptomatic DVT in the low and moderate PCP patients. The need for VDS could be reduced by 23% despite a relatively high prevalence of DVT.

Oxygen uptake efficiency slope and peak oxygen consumption predict prognosis in children with tetralogy of Fallot.

PubMed

Tsai, Yun-Jeng; Li, Min-Hui; Tsai, Wan-Jung; Tuan, Sheng-Hui; Liao, Tin-Yun; Lin, Ko-Long

2016-07-01

Oxygen uptake efficiency slope (OUES) and peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak) are exercise parameters that can predict cardiac morbidity in patients with numerous heart diseases. But the predictive value in patients with tetralogy of Fallot is still undetermined, especially in children. We evaluated the prognostic value of OUES and VO2peak in children with total repair of tetralogy of Fallot. Retrospective cohort study. Forty tetralogy of Fallot patients younger than 12 years old were recruited. They underwent a cardiopulmonary exercise test during the follow-up period after total repair surgery. The results of the cardiopulmonary exercise test were used to predict the cardiac related hospitalization in the following two years after the test. OUES normalized by body surface area (OUES/BSA) and the percentage of predicted VO2peak appeared to be predictive for two-year cardiac related hospitalization. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated that the best threshold value for OUES/BSA was 1.029 (area under the curve = 0.70, p = 0.03), and for VO2peak was 74% of age prediction (area under the curve = 0.72, p = 0.02). The aforementioned findings were confirmed by Kaplan-Meier plots and log-rank test. OUES/BSA and VO2peak are useful predictors of cardiac-related hospitalization in children with total repair of tetralogy of Fallot. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Prediction of beta-turns from amino acid sequences using the residue-coupled model.

PubMed

Guruprasad, K; Shukla, S

2003-04-01

We evaluated the prediction of beta-turns from amino acid sequences using the residue-coupled model with an enlarged representative protein data set selected from the Protein Data Bank. Our results show that the probability values derived from a data set comprising 425 protein chains yielded an overall beta-turn prediction accuracy 68.74%, compared with 94.7% reported earlier on a data set of 30 proteins using the same method. However, we noted that the overall beta-turn prediction accuracy using probability values derived from the 30-protein data set reduces to 40.74% when tested on the data set comprising 425 protein chains. In contrast, using probability values derived from the 425 data set used in this analysis, the overall beta-turn prediction accuracy yielded consistent results when tested on either the 30-protein data set (64.62%) used earlier or a more recent representative data set comprising 619 protein chains (64.66%) or on a jackknife data set comprising 476 representative protein chains (63.38%). We therefore recommend the use of probability values derived from the 425 representative protein chains data set reported here, which gives more realistic and consistent predictions of beta-turns from amino acid sequences.

Life test results for the advanced very high resolution radiometer scanner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lenz, James

1996-01-01

The following paper reports the results obtained during a 3.33-year life test on the TIROS Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer/3 (AVHRR/3) Scanner. The bearing drag torque and lubricant loss over life will be compared to predicted values developed through modeling. The condition of the lubricant at the end of the test will be described and a theory presented to explain the results obtained. The differences (if any) in the predicted and measured values of drag torque and lubricant loss will be discussed and possible reasons for these examined.

Phase angle assessment by bioelectrical impedance analysis and its predictive value for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

PubMed

Varan, Hacer Dogan; Bolayir, Basak; Kara, Ozgur; Arik, Gunes; Kizilarslanoglu, Muhammet Cemal; Kilic, Mustafa Kemal; Sumer, Fatih; Kuyumcu, Mehmet Emin; Yesil, Yusuf; Yavuz, Burcu Balam; Halil, Meltem; Cankurtaran, Mustafa

2016-12-01

Phase angle (PhA) value determined by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is an indicator of cell membrane damage and body cell mass. Recent studies have shown that low PhA value is associated with increased nutritional risk in various group of patients. However, there have been only a few studies performed globally assessing the relationship between nutritional risk and PhA in hospitalized geriatric patients. The aim of the study is to evaluate the predictive value of the PhA for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients. One hundred and twenty-two hospitalized geriatric patients were included in this cross-sectional study. Comprehensive geriatric assessment tests and BIA measurements were performed within the first 48 h after admission. Nutritional risk state of the patients was determined with NRS-2002. Phase angle values of the patients with malnutrition risk were compared with the patients that did not have the same risk. The independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk were determined. SPSS version 15 was utilized for the statistical analyzes. The patients with malnutrition risk had significantly lower phase angle values than the patients without malnutrition risk (p = 0.003). ROC curve analysis suggested that the optimum PhA cut-off point for malnutrition risk was 4.7° with 79.6 % sensitivity, 64.6 % specificity, 73.9 % positive predictive value, and 73.9 % negative predictive value. BMI, prealbumin, PhA, and Mini Mental State Examination Test scores were the independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk. PhA can be a useful, independent indicator for predicting malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

Predictive value and efficiency of laboratory testing.

PubMed

Galen, R S

1980-11-01

Literature on determining reference values and reference intervals on "normal" or "healthy" individuals is abundant. It is impossible, however, to evaluate a data set of reference values and select a suitable reference interval that will be meaningful for the practice of medicine. The reference interval, no matter how derived statistically, tells us nothing about disease. This is the main reason the concepts of "normal values" have failed us and why "reference values" will prove similarly disappointing. By studying these same constituents in a variety of disease states as well, it will be possible to select "referent values" that will make the test procedure meaningful for diagnostic purposes. In order to obtain meaningful referent values for predicting disease, it is necessary to study not only the "healthy" reference population, but patients with the disease in question, and patients who are free of the disease in question but who have other diseases. Studies of this type are not frequently found for laboratory tests that are in common use today.

Estimating cross-validatory predictive p-values with integrated importance sampling for disease mapping models.

PubMed

Li, Longhai; Feng, Cindy X; Qiu, Shi

2017-06-30

An important statistical task in disease mapping problems is to identify divergent regions with unusually high or low risk of disease. Leave-one-out cross-validatory (LOOCV) model assessment is the gold standard for estimating predictive p-values that can flag such divergent regions. However, actual LOOCV is time-consuming because one needs to rerun a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis for each posterior distribution in which an observation is held out as a test case. This paper introduces a new method, called integrated importance sampling (iIS), for estimating LOOCV predictive p-values with only Markov chain samples drawn from the posterior based on a full data set. The key step in iIS is that we integrate away the latent variables associated the test observation with respect to their conditional distribution without reference to the actual observation. By following the general theory for importance sampling, the formula used by iIS can be proved to be equivalent to the LOOCV predictive p-value. We compare iIS and other three existing methods in the literature with two disease mapping datasets. Our empirical results show that the predictive p-values estimated with iIS are almost identical to the predictive p-values estimated with actual LOOCV and outperform those given by the existing three methods, namely, the posterior predictive checking, the ordinary importance sampling, and the ghosting method by Marshall and Spiegelhalter (2003). Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Three-dimensional computed tomographic volumetry precisely predicts the postoperative pulmonary function.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Keisuke; Saeki, Yusuke; Kitazawa, Shinsuke; Kobayashi, Naohiro; Kikuchi, Shinji; Goto, Yukinobu; Sakai, Mitsuaki; Sato, Yukio

2017-11-01

It is important to accurately predict the patient's postoperative pulmonary function. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of predictions of the postoperative residual pulmonary function obtained with three-dimensional computed tomographic (3D-CT) volumetry with that of predictions obtained with the conventional segment-counting method. Fifty-three patients scheduled to undergo lung cancer resection, pulmonary function tests, and computed tomography were enrolled in this study. The postoperative residual pulmonary function was predicted based on the segment-counting and 3D-CT volumetry methods. The predicted postoperative values were compared with the results of postoperative pulmonary function tests. Regarding the linear correlation coefficients between the predicted postoperative values and the measured values, those obtained using the 3D-CT volumetry method tended to be higher than those acquired using the segment-counting method. In addition, the variations between the predicted and measured values were smaller with the 3D-CT volumetry method than with the segment-counting method. These results were more obvious in COPD patients than in non-COPD patients. Our findings suggested that the 3D-CT volumetry was able to predict the residual pulmonary function more accurately than the segment-counting method, especially in patients with COPD. This method might lead to the selection of appropriate candidates for surgery among patients with a marginal pulmonary function.

Does exposure to simulated patient cases improve accuracy of clinicians' predictive value estimates of diagnostic test results? A within-subjects experiment at St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.

PubMed

Armstrong, Bonnie; Spaniol, Julia; Persaud, Nav

2018-02-13

Clinicians often overestimate the probability of a disease given a positive test result (positive predictive value; PPV) and the probability of no disease given a negative test result (negative predictive value; NPV). The purpose of this study was to investigate whether experiencing simulated patient cases (ie, an 'experience format') would promote more accurate PPV and NPV estimates compared with a numerical format. Participants were presented with information about three diagnostic tests for the same fictitious disease and were asked to estimate the PPV and NPV of each test. Tests varied with respect to sensitivity and specificity. Information about each test was presented once in the numerical format and once in the experience format. The study used a 2 (format: numerical vs experience) × 3 (diagnostic test: gold standard vs low sensitivity vs low specificity) within-subjects design. The study was completed online, via Qualtrics (Provo, Utah, USA). 50 physicians (12 clinicians and 38 residents) from the Department of Family and Community Medicine at St Michael's Hospital in Toronto, Canada, completed the study. All participants had completed at least 1 year of residency. Estimation accuracy was quantified by the mean absolute error (MAE; absolute difference between estimate and true predictive value). PPV estimation errors were larger in the numerical format (MAE=32.6%, 95% CI 26.8% to 38.4%) compared with the experience format (MAE=15.9%, 95% CI 11.8% to 20.0%, d =0.697, P<0.001). Likewise, NPV estimation errors were larger in the numerical format (MAE=24.4%, 95% CI 14.5% to 34.3%) than in the experience format (MAE=11.0%, 95% CI 6.5% to 15.5%, d =0.303, P=0.015). Exposure to simulated patient cases promotes accurate estimation of predictive values in clinicians. This finding carries implications for diagnostic training and practice. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Flow Test to Predict Early Hypotony and Hypertensive Phase After Ahmed Glaucoma Valve (AGV) Surgical Implantation.

PubMed

Cheng, Jason; Beltran-Agullo, Laura; Buys, Yvonne M; Moss, Edward B; Gonzalez, Johanna; Trope, Graham E

2016-06-01

To assess the validity of a preimplantation flow test to predict early hypotony [intraocular pressure (IOP)≤5 mm Hg on 2 consecutive visits and hypertensive phase (HP) (IOP>21 mm Hg) after Ahmed Glaucoma Valve (AGV) implantation. Prospective interventional study on patients receiving an AGV. A preimplantation flow test using a gravity-driven reservoir and an open manometer was performed on all AGVs. Opening pressure (OP) and closing pressure (CP) were defined as the pressure at which fluid was seen to flow or stop flowing through the AGV, respectively. OP and CP were measured twice per AGV. Patients were followed for 12 weeks. In total, 20 eyes from 19 patients were enrolled. At 12 weeks the mean IOP decreased from 29.2±9.1 to 16.8±5.2 mm Hg (P<0.01). The mean AGV OP was 17.5±5.4 mm Hg and the mean CP was 6.7±2.3 mm Hg. Early (within 2 wk postoperative) HP occurred in 37% and hypotony in 16% of cases. An 18 mm Hg cutoff for the OP gave a sensitivity of 0.71, specificity of 0.83, positive predictive value of 0.71, and negative predictive value of 0.83 for predicting an early HP. A 7 mm Hg cutoff for the CP yielded a sensitivity of 1.0, specificity of 0.38, positive predictive value of 0.23, and negative predictive value of 1.0 for predicting hypotony. Preoperative OP and CP may predict early hypotony or HP and may be used as a guide as to which AGV valves to discard before implantation surgery.

Asymptomatic bacteriuria in pregnant women attending Boo-Ali Hospital Tehran Iran: Urine analysis vs. urine culture.

PubMed

Etminan-Bakhsh, Mina; Tadi, Sima; Darabi, Roksana

2017-11-01

Asymptomatic bacteriuria is one of the common problems in pregnancy. Asymptomatic bacteriuria is associated with pyelonephritis, preterm labor and low birth weight infants. The physiological and anatomical changes in pregnancy facilitate urinary tract infection (UTI) during pregnancy. Several tests are available for diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria. The urine culture is a gold standard diagnostic test for asymptomatic bacteriuria but it is expensive and time-consuming. Screening methods may be useful in detecting high-risk pregnant women for asymptomatic bacteriuria. The aim of the present study was to compare urine analysis as a rapid screening test to urine culture in diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria. A total of 123 pregnant women attending the obstetrics clinic of Boo-Ali hospital in Tehran, Iran from March 2013 to September 2014 were included in the present diagnostic cross-sectional study. One hundred twenty three mid-stream urine samples were inoculated into cultures and were processed by dipstick (nitrite test and leucocyte esterase test) and microscopic pus cell count. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of nitrite test, leucocyte esterase test and microscopic pus cell count were compared with urine culture in diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria by using SPSS version 19. Of 123 urine samples, significant asymptomatic bacteriuria (≥10 4 cfu/Ml) was detected in 8 (6.5%) subjects. The sensitivity and specificity of nitrite test were 37% and 100% respectively. The sensitivity of pus cell count alone and leucocyte esterase test alone were 100% but the specificity of them were 64% and 65% respectively. We found high negative predictive value by Pus cell count and the leucocyte esterase test (100%) and low positive predictive value by them (16% and 17% respectively). Urine culture is the most useful test for diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria. None of our screening tests had a sensitivity and specificity of 100%, whereas we can only refer the pregnant women with positive leucocyte esterase test and significant pyuria to the urine culture.

Comparison of wheat and rye flour solutions for skin prick testing: a multi-centre study (Stad 1).

PubMed

van Kampen, V; Merget, R; Rabstein, S; Sander, I; Bruening, T; Broding, H C; Keller, C; Muesken, H; Overlack, A; Schultze-Werninghaus, G; Walusiak, J; Raulf-Heimsoth, M

2009-12-01

Skin prick testing (SPT) is the basic method for diagnosing IgE-mediated allergies. However, skin reactivity is related to the quality of allergen extracts, which are often poorly defined for occupational allergens. To compare wheat and rye flour SPT solutions from different producers. Standardized SPTs were performed in seven allergy centres with wheat and rye flour solutions from four producers in 125 symptomatic bakers. Optimal cut-off levels for weal sizes were assessed with the Youden Index. Comparisons between SPT results of different solutions were made with flour-specific IgE (sIgE) as the gold standard. Sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative predictive values, and test efficiencies were calculated and compared with McNemar and chi(2)-tests. The influence of the choice of the gold standard (sIgE or challenge) test was examined for 95 subjects. Additionally, SPT solutions were analysed for protein and antigen content. The optimal cut-off level for all SPT solutions was a weal size of >or=1.5 mm. While differences between wheat and rye flours were small, differences between producers were important. Variability of sensitivities (0.31-0.96), negative predictive values (0.42-0.91), and test efficiencies (0.54-0.90) were higher than variations of specificities (0.74-1.00) and positive predictive values (0.88-1.00). Similar results were obtained when using challenge test results as the gold standard. Variability could be explained by the different antigen contents of the SPT solutions. There is a wide variability of SPT solutions for wheat and rye flour from different producers, mainly with respect to sensitivities, negative predictive values, and test efficiencies. Improvement and standardization of SPT solutions used for the diagnosis of baker's asthma are highly recommended.

Multiple testing of food contact materials: a predictive algorithm for assessing the global migration from silicone moulds.

PubMed

Elskens, Marc; Vloeberghs, Daniel; Van Elsen, Liesbeth; Baeyens, Willy; Goeyens, Leo

2012-09-15

For reasons of food safety, packaging and food contact materials must be submitted to migration tests. Testing of silicone moulds is often very laborious, since three replicate tests are required to decide about their compliancy. This paper presents a general modelling framework to predict the sample's compliance or non-compliance using results of the first two migration tests. It compares the outcomes of models with multiple continuous predictors with a class of models involving latent and dummy variables. The model's prediction ability was tested using cross and external validations, i.e. model revalidation each time a new measurement set became available. At the overall migration limit of 10 mg dm(-2), the relative uncertainty on a prediction was estimated to be ~10%. Taking the default values for α and β equal to 0.05, the maximum value that can be predicted for sample compliance was therefore 7 mg dm(-2). Beyond this limit the risk for false compliant results increases significantly, and a third migration test should be performed. The result of this latter test defines the sample's compliance or non-compliance. Propositions for compliancy control inspired by the current dioxin control strategy are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The utility of QSARs in predicting acute fish toxicity of pesticide metabolites: A retrospective validation approach.

PubMed

Burden, Natalie; Maynard, Samuel K; Weltje, Lennart; Wheeler, James R

2016-10-01

The European Plant Protection Products Regulation 1107/2009 requires that registrants establish whether pesticide metabolites pose a risk to the environment. Fish acute toxicity assessments may be carried out to this end. Considering the total number of pesticide (re-) registrations, the number of metabolites can be considerable, and therefore this testing could use many vertebrates. EFSA's recent "Guidance on tiered risk assessment for plant protection products for aquatic organisms in edge-of-field surface waters" outlines opportunities to apply non-testing methods, such as Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) models. However, a scientific evidence base is necessary to support the use of QSARs in predicting acute fish toxicity of pesticide metabolites. Widespread application and subsequent regulatory acceptance of such an approach would reduce the numbers of animals used. The work presented here intends to provide this evidence base, by means of retrospective data analysis. Experimental fish LC50 values for 150 metabolites were extracted from the Pesticide Properties Database (http://sitem.herts.ac.uk/aeru/ppdb/en/atoz.htm). QSAR calculations were performed to predict fish acute toxicity values for these metabolites using the US EPA's ECOSAR software. The most conservative predicted LC50 values generated by ECOSAR were compared with experimental LC50 values. There was a significant correlation between predicted and experimental fish LC50 values (Spearman rs = 0.6304, p < 0.0001). For 62% of metabolites assessed, the QSAR predicted values are equal to or lower than their respective experimental values. Refined analysis, taking into account data quality and experimental variation considerations increases the proportion of sufficiently predictive estimates to 91%. For eight of the nine outliers, there are plausible explanation(s) for the disparity between measured and predicted LC50 values. Following detailed consideration of the robustness of this non-testing approach, it can be concluded there is a strong data driven rationale for the applicability of QSAR models in the metabolite assessment scheme recommended by EFSA. As such there is value in further refining this approach, to improve the method and enable its future incorporation into regulatory guidance and practice. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive value and construct validity of the work functioning screener-healthcare (WFS-H).

PubMed

Boezeman, Edwin J; Nieuwenhuijsen, Karen; Sluiter, Judith K

2016-05-25

To test the predictive value and convergent construct validity of a 6-item work functioning screener (WFS-H). Healthcare workers (249 nurses) completed a questionnaire containing the work functioning screener (WFS-H) and a work functioning instrument (NWFQ) measuring the following: cognitive aspects of task execution and general incidents, avoidance behavior, conflicts and irritation with colleagues, impaired contact with patients and their family, and level of energy and motivation. Productivity and mental health were also measured. Negative and positive predictive values, AUC values, and sensitivity and specificity were calculated to examine the predictive value of the screener. Correlation analysis was used to examine the construct validity. The screener had good predictive value, since the results showed that a negative screener score is a strong indicator of work functioning not hindered by mental health problems (negative predictive values: 94%-98%; positive predictive values: 21%-36%; AUC:.64-.82; sensitivity: 42%-76%; and specificity 85%-87%). The screener has good construct validity due to moderate, but significant (p<.001), associations with productivity (r=.51), mental health (r=.48), and distress (r=.47). The screener (WFS-H) had good predictive value and good construct validity. Its score offers occupational health professionals a helpful preliminary insight into the work functioning of healthcare workers.

Human hydatid disease: evaluation of an ELISA for diagnosis, population screening and monitoring of control programmes.

PubMed

Biffin, A H; Jones, M A; Palmer, S R

1993-07-01

The routine use of ELISA and complement fixation tests in the diagnosis of suspected clinical cases of hydatid disease was evaluated. In the ELISA test, dialysed and filtered sheep cyst fluid was used as antigen and two positive cut-off points--+3SD and +2SD of the mean absorbance values of the control sera--were evaluated. The predictive values of ELISA tests were 82% and 90% for positive tests, and 86% and 82% for negative tests, respectively with the two cut-off points. In a population survey of blood donors and veterinary workers in Powys, 4% and 8%, respectively, had ELISA values above the lower cut-off point. However, it would not be appropriate to use the same test for diagnostic population screening in Wales since the predictive value of the test is likely to be very low in this setting. Serological surveys with the ELISA may be of use in monitoring the progress of the South Powys Hydatid Control Programme. The use of cumulative percentages was found to be a useful method of comparing whole distributions of results in different populations.

Triple Test in Carcinoma Breast

PubMed Central

Sameer; Mukherjee, Arindam

2014-01-01

Introduction: The commonest clinical presentation in majority of breast pathology is a lump. A definite diagnosis of breast lump is very important for the surgeon to decide on the final course of treatment and also saves the patient from unnecessary physical, emotional and psychological trauma if there is a definite preoperative diagnosis of benign lesion. The present study was done to evaluate the effectiveness and relevance of “TRIPLE TEST”in diagnosis of carcinoma breast in rural labour class population. Materials and Methods: The present study was a prospective study conducted on patients over 35 years of age having palpable breast lumps presenting in the out patient department of general surgery, ESI Hospital Basaidarapur New Delhi, India. The duration of study was from May 2007 to June 2009 and a total of 100 cases were studied. Each patient was subjected to a detailed history, clinical breast examination ,diagnostic mammography and FNAC. In this study, the results of each modality was divided in three groups: benign, suspicious and malignant. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and diagnostic accuracy of each test was calculated individually and as combined. Result: Out of 100 patients enrolled in this study, 60 cases were benign and 40 cases were of malignant breast disease. The age of patients with carcinoma breast in the series varied from 35 years to 70 years. The highest incidence of malignancy noted was 30% in 41-50 years age group (4th decade) followed by 27.5% in 51-60 years age group (5th decade). The sensitivity of clinical examination was found to be 75%, specificity was 83.3%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 75% and diagnostic accuracy of 80%. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and diagnostic accuracy of mammography was calculated and was found to be 94.9% , 90% , 86% and 92% respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and diagnostic accuracy of FNAC was 94.7%, 98.3%, 97.3% and 96.6% respectively. Out of 100 cases triple test was concordant (all three test either benign or malignant) in 80 cases, all the benign cases detected by triple test were benign on final biopsy i.e. 100% specificity and 100% negative predictive value. Conclusion: TTS is an accurate and least invasive diagnostic test based on which definitive treatment can be initiated. PMID:25478391

Determination of the criterion-related validity of hip joint angle test for estimating hamstring flexibility using a contemporary statistical approach.

PubMed

Sainz de Baranda, Pilar; Rodríguez-Iniesta, María; Ayala, Francisco; Santonja, Fernando; Cejudo, Antonio

2014-07-01

To examine the criterion-related validity of the horizontal hip joint angle (H-HJA) test and vertical hip joint angle (V-HJA) test for estimating hamstring flexibility measured through the passive straight-leg raise (PSLR) test using contemporary statistical measures. Validity study. Controlled laboratory environment. One hundred thirty-eight professional trampoline gymnasts (61 women and 77 men). Hamstring flexibility. Each participant performed 2 trials of H-HJA, V-HJA, and PSLR tests in a randomized order. The criterion-related validity of H-HJA and V-HJA tests was measured through the estimation equation, typical error of the estimate (TEEST), validity correlation (β), and their respective confidence limits. The findings from this study suggest that although H-HJA and V-HJA tests showed moderate to high validity scores for estimating hamstring flexibility (standardized TEEST = 0.63; β = 0.80), the TEEST statistic reported for both tests was not narrow enough for clinical purposes (H-HJA = 10.3 degrees; V-HJA = 9.5 degrees). Subsequently, the predicted likely thresholds for the true values that were generated were too wide (H-HJA = predicted value ± 13.2 degrees; V-HJA = predicted value ± 12.2 degrees). The results suggest that although the HJA test showed moderate to high validity scores for estimating hamstring flexibility, the prediction intervals between the HJA and PSLR tests are not strong enough to suggest that clinicians and sport medicine practitioners should use the HJA and PSLR tests interchangeably as gold standard measurement tools to evaluate and detect short hamstring muscle flexibility.

Conjunctivitis and Total IgE in Lacrimal Fluid: Lacrytest Screening

PubMed Central

Monzón, Susana; Arrondo, Elena; Bartra, Joan; Torres, Ferran; Basagaña, María; San Miguel, M. del Mar; Alonso, Rosario; Cisteró-Bahima, Anna

2009-01-01

Total tear IgE has been considered to play an important role in allergic conjunctivitis, and measurement has been considered useful for diagnosis. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether Lacrytest®, a new commercialised method to detect IgE levels in lacrimal fluid, could constitute a screening test for the diagnosis of allergic conjunctivitis. This was a cross-sectional study. Patients with seasonal and perennial allergic conjunctivitis, vernal keratoconjunctivitis and a control group were included. Clinical history, ophthalmic examination, skin prick test and conjunctival provocation test were obtained. Lacrytest® was later performed in all groups. Fifty-four patients were enrolled: thirty with IgE-mediated conjunctivitis and, nine with vernal keratoconjunctivitis and fifteen controls. Lacrytest® was negative in all controls, positive in 20% of the IgE-mediated conjunctivitis group and in 88.9% of the vernal keratoconjunctivitis group. Global statistically-significant differences were found among the three groups (P = .003). Sensitivity of the test in the IgE-mediated conjunctivitis group was 20%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100%, and negative predictive value 38.46%, while in VKC sensitivity was 88.88%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100%, and negative predictive value 93.75%. Our data confirm that this test is not useful for screening allergic conjunctivitis. Lacrytest®, while not providing any useful information to an allergist, could be helpful for ophthalmologists to confirm an IgE-mediated or VKC conjunctivitis. PMID:20975798

The predictive value of early behavioural assessments in pet dogs--a longitudinal study from neonates to adults.

PubMed

Riemer, Stefanie; Müller, Corsin; Virányi, Zsófia; Huber, Ludwig; Range, Friederike

2014-01-01

Studies on behavioural development in domestic dogs are of relevance for matching puppies with the right families, identifying predispositions for behavioural problems at an early stage, and predicting suitability for service dog work, police or military service. The literature is, however, inconsistent regarding the predictive value of tests performed during the socialisation period. Additionally, some practitioners use tests with neonates to complement later assessments for selecting puppies as working dogs, but these have not been validated. We here present longitudinal data on a cohort of Border collies, followed up from neonate age until adulthood. A neonate test was conducted with 99 Border collie puppies aged 2-10 days to assess activity, vocalisations when isolated and sucking force. At the age of 40-50 days, 134 puppies (including 93 tested as neonates) were tested in a puppy test at their breeders' homes. All dogs were adopted as pet dogs and 50 of them participated in a behavioural test at the age of 1.5 to 2 years with their owners. Linear mixed models found little correspondence between individuals' behaviour in the neonate, puppy and adult test. Exploratory activity was the only behaviour that was significantly correlated between the puppy and the adult test. We conclude that the predictive validity of early tests for predicting specific behavioural traits in adult pet dogs is limited.

The Predictive Value of Early Behavioural Assessments in Pet Dogs – A Longitudinal Study from Neonates to Adults

PubMed Central

Riemer, Stefanie; Müller, Corsin; Virányi, Zsófia; Huber, Ludwig; Range, Friederike

2014-01-01

Studies on behavioural development in domestic dogs are of relevance for matching puppies with the right families, identifying predispositions for behavioural problems at an early stage, and predicting suitability for service dog work, police or military service. The literature is, however, inconsistent regarding the predictive value of tests performed during the socialisation period. Additionally, some practitioners use tests with neonates to complement later assessments for selecting puppies as working dogs, but these have not been validated. We here present longitudinal data on a cohort of Border collies, followed up from neonate age until adulthood. A neonate test was conducted with 99 Border collie puppies aged 2–10 days to assess activity, vocalisations when isolated and sucking force. At the age of 40–50 days, 134 puppies (including 93 tested as neonates) were tested in a puppy test at their breeders' homes. All dogs were adopted as pet dogs and 50 of them participated in a behavioural test at the age of 1.5 to 2 years with their owners. Linear mixed models found little correspondence between individuals' behaviour in the neonate, puppy and adult test. Exploratory activity was the only behaviour that was significantly correlated between the puppy and the adult test. We conclude that the predictive validity of early tests for predicting specific behavioural traits in adult pet dogs is limited. PMID:25003341

Predictive value of the korean academy of family medicine in-training examination for certifying examination.

PubMed

Cho, Jung-Jin; Kim, Ji-Yong

2011-09-01

In-training examination (ITE) is a cognitive examination similar to the written test, but it is different from the Clinical Practice Examination of the Korean Academy of Family Medicine (KAFM) Certification Examination (CE). The objective of this is to estimate the positive predictive value of the KAFM-ITE for identifying residents at risk for poor performance on the three types of KAFM-CE. 372 residents who completed the KAFM-CE in 2011 were included. We compared the mean KAFM-CE scores with ITE experience. We evaluated the correlation and the positive predictive value (PPV) of ITE for the multiple choice question (MCQ) scores of 1st written test & 2nd slide examination, the total clinical practice examination scores, and the total sum of 2nd test. 275 out of 372 residents completed ITE. Those who completed ITE had significantly higher MCQ scores of 1st written test than those who did not. The correlation of ITE scores with 1st written MCQ (0.627) was found to be the highest among the other kinds of CE. The PPV of the ITE score for 1st written MCQ scores was 0.672. The PPV of the ITE score ranged from 0.376 to 0.502. The score of the KAFM ITE has acceptable positive predictive value that could be used as a part of comprehensive evaluation system for residents in cognitive field.

Can history and exam alone reliably predict pneumonia?

PubMed

Graffelman, A W; le Cessie, S; Knuistingh Neven, A; Wilemssen, F E J A; Zonderland, H M; van den Broek, P J

2007-06-01

Prediction rules based on clinical information have been developed to support the diagnosis of pneumonia and help limit the use of expensive diagnostic tests. However, these prediction rules need to be validated in the primary care setting. Adults who met our definition of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) were recruited for a prospective study on the causes of LRTI, between November 15, 1998 and June 1, 2001 in the Leiden region of The Netherlands. Clinical information was collected and chest radiography was performed. A literature search was also done to find prediction rules for pneumonia. 129 patients--26 with pneumonia and 103 without--were included, and 6 prediction rules were applied. Only the model with the addition of a test for C-reactive protein had a significant area under the curve of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58-0.80), with a positive predictive value of 47% (95% CI, 23-71) and a negative predictive value of 84% (95% CI, 77-91). The pretest probabilities for the presence and absence of pneumonia were 20% and 80%, respectively. Models based only on clinical information do not reliably predict the presence of pneumonia. The addition of an elevated C-reactive protein level seems of little value.

Association of systemic lupus erythematosus with uveitis.

PubMed

Gallagher, Kevin; Viswanathan, Ananth; Okhravi, Narciss

2015-10-01

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) can be associated with uveitis. The reported prevalence of SLE in patients with uveitis varies from 0.1% to 4.8%. Accordingly, the positive predictive value of antinuclear antibody testing in diagnosing SLE in a patient with uveitis varies enormously. An accurate estimate of SLE prevalence in uveitis is needed to establish the value of routine antinuclear antibody testing in patients with uveitis. A literature review using the Medline database was performed to find studies reporting data on uveitis etiology from January 1, 1984, to March 20, 2015. Studies were included where there were sufficient data to draw conclusions on the prevalence of SLE as an etiological factor in uveitis. Data for 53 315 patients were reviewed and 63 studies from 30 countries were included. The prevalence of SLE as a cause of uveitis was estimated to be 0.47% (95% CI, 0.41%-0.53%). The positive predictive value of routine antinuclear antibody testing was 2.9% (95% CI, 2.65%-3.19%). Systemic lupus erythematosus is a rare cause of uveitis. Routine antinuclear antibody testing has a low positive predictive value for SLE. These data suggest such testing should be reserved for patients where there is a higher pretest probability of SLE.

Combination of serum angiopoietin-2 and uterine artery Doppler for prediction of preeclampsia.

PubMed

Puttapitakpong, Ploynin; Phupong, Vorapong

2016-02-01

The aim of this study was to determine the predictive value of the combination of serum angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) levels and uterine artery Doppler for the detection of preeclampsia in women at 16-18 weeks of gestation and to identify other pregnancy complications that could be predicted with these combined tests. Maternal serum Ang-2 levels were measured, and uterine artery Doppler was performed in 400 pregnant women. The main outcome was preeclampsia. The predictive values of this combination were calculated. Twenty-five women (6.3%) developed preeclampsia. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of uterine artery Doppler combined with serum Ang-2 levels for the prediction of preeclampsia were 24.0%, 94.4%, 22.2% and 94.9%, respectively. For the prediction of early-onset preeclampsia, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV were 57.1%, 94.1%, 14.8% and 99.2%, respectively. Patients with abnormal uterine artery Doppler and abnormal serum Ang-2 levels (above 19.5 ng ml(-1)) were at higher risk for preterm delivery (relative risk=2.7, 95% confidence interval 1.2-5.8). Our findings revealed that the combination of uterine artery Doppler and serum Ang-2 levels at 16-18 weeks of gestation can be used to predict early-onset preeclampsia but not overall preeclampsia. Thus, this combination may be a useful early second trimester screening test for the prediction of early-onset preeclampsia.

Predicting drug-induced liver injury in human with Naïve Bayes classifier approach.

PubMed

Zhang, Hui; Ding, Lan; Zou, Yi; Hu, Shui-Qing; Huang, Hai-Guo; Kong, Wei-Bao; Zhang, Ji

2016-10-01

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is one of the major safety concerns in drug development. Although various toxicological studies assessing DILI risk have been developed, these methods were not sufficient in predicting DILI in humans. Thus, developing new tools and approaches to better predict DILI risk in humans has become an important and urgent task. In this study, we aimed to develop a computational model for assessment of the DILI risk with using a larger scale human dataset and Naïve Bayes classifier. The established Naïve Bayes prediction model was evaluated by 5-fold cross validation and an external test set. For the training set, the overall prediction accuracy of the 5-fold cross validation was 94.0 %. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 97.1, 89.2, 93.5 and 95.1 %, respectively. The test set with the concordance of 72.6 %, sensitivity of 72.5 %, specificity of 72.7 %, positive predictive value of 80.4 %, negative predictive value of 63.2 %. Furthermore, some important molecular descriptors related to DILI risk and some toxic/non-toxic fragments were identified. Thus, we hope the prediction model established here would be employed for the assessment of human DILI risk, and the obtained molecular descriptors and substructures should be taken into consideration in the design of new candidate compounds to help medicinal chemists rationally select the chemicals with the best prospects to be effective and safe.

The diagnostic accuracy of the rapid dipstick test to predict asymptomatic urinary tract infection of pregnancy.

PubMed

Eigbefoh, J O; Isabu, P; Okpere, E; Abebe, J

2008-07-01

Untreated urinary tract infection can have devastating maternal and neonatal effects. Thus, routine screening for bacteriuria is advocated. This study was designed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the rapid dipstick test to predict urinary tract infection in pregnancy with the gold standard of urine microscopy, culture and sensitivity acting as the control. The urine dipstick test uses the leucocyte esterase, nitrite and test for protein singly and in combination. The result of the dipstick was compared with the gold standard, urine microscopy, culture and sensitivity using confidence interval for proportions. The reliability and validity of the urine dipstick was also evaluated. Overall, the urine dipstick test has a poor correlation with urine culture (p = 0.125, CI 95%). The same holds true for individual components of the dipstick test. The overall sensitivity of the urine dipstick test was poor at 2.3%. Individual sensitivity of the various components varied between 9.1% for leucocyte esterase and the nitrite test to 56.8% for leucocyte esterase alone. The other components of the dipstick test, the test of nitrite, test for protein and combination of the test (leucocyte esterase, nitrite and proteinuria) appear to decrease the sensitivity of the leucocyte esterase test alone. The ability of the urine dipstick test to correctly rule out urinary tract infection (specificity) was high. The positive predictive value for the dipstick test was high, with the leucocyte esterase test having the highest positive predictive value compared with the other components of the dipstick test. The negative predictive value (NPV) was expectedly highest for the leucocyte esterase test alone with values higher than the other components of the urine dipstick test singly and in various combinations. Compared with the other parameters of the urine dipstick test, singly and in combination, leucocyte esterase appears to be the most accurate (90.25%). The dipstick test has a limited use in screening for asymptomatic bacteriuria. The leucocyte esterase test component of the dipstick test appears to have the highest reliability and validity. The other parameters of the dipstick test decreases the reliability and validity of the leucocyte esterase test. A positive test merits empirical antibiotics, while a negative test is an indication for urine culture. The urine dipstick test if positive will also be useful in follow-up of patient after treatment of urinary tract infection. This is useful in poor resource setting especially in the third world where there is a dearth of trained personnel and equipment for urine culture.

Diagnosing Invasive Candidiasis.

PubMed

Clancy, Cornelius J; Nguyen, M Hong

2018-05-01

Cultures are negative in ∼50% of invasive candidiasis. Data are emerging for the performance of nonculture tests such as mannan/antimannan, Candida albicans germ tube antibody, 1,3-β-d-glucan, PCR, and the T2Candida panel in diagnosing both candidemia and deep-seated candidiasis. In most settings, positive predictive values of nonculture test are low, and negative predictive values are high. For tests to be useful, clinicians must understand the pretest likelihood of invasive candidiasis and test performance for the most common disease manifestation in a given patient. This paper reviews nonculture Candida diagnostics and discusses how they might be used effectively in patient care. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Microbiology.

Immunoglobulin M indirect-fluorescent antibody test for the diagnosis of acute toxoplasmosis during pregnancy in the avidity era: A 14-year experience at the Tuscany Reference Center for Infectious Diseases in Pregnancy, Florence, Italy.

PubMed

Trotta, Michele; Borchi, Beatrice; Zammarchi, Lorenzo; Sterrantino, Gaetana; Brogi, Michela; Kiros, Seble Tekle; Lorini, Chiara; Bonaccorsi, Guglielmo; Colao, Maria Grazia; Bartoloni, Alessandro

2016-12-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate immunoglobulin M indirect-fluorescent antibody test (IgM IFAT) for the diagnosis of acute or chronic Toxoplasma infection in pregnancy. Pregnant women with suspected acute toxoplasmosis referred to the Tuscany Reference Center for Infectious Diseases in Pregnancy during the period 1998-2012 were retrospectively enrolled. All women were tested with a panel of serological tests, including enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for IgG avidity and IgM IFAT. On the basis of anamnestic, clinical, and serological criteria, pregnant women were classified into three groups: recently infected (RI), latently infected (LI), and doubtful latently infected (DLI). Patients classified as DLI were excluded from the analysis. The association between IgM IFAT (positive or negative) and the diagnosis of infection (acute or chronic) was assessed. Positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the IgM IFAT were calculated. A total of 810 pregnant women were enrolled in the study: 302 in the RI group and 508 in the LI group. Fifty-two women classified as DLI were excluded. IgM IFAT was positive in 172 out of 302 (56.9%) pregnant women in the RI group and in 29 out of 508 (5.7%) in the LI group. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value of IgM IFAT in predicting RI was 85.6% and 78.6%, respectively. IgM IFAT has reasonable sensitivity and specificity in diagnosing recent infection and, mostly in case of borderline avidity test, could be considered as a further aid for an accurate diagnosis of acute toxoplasmosis in pregnancy. © 2016 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Signal-averaged P wave in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Rosenheck, S

1997-10-01

The theoretical and experimental rational of atrial signal-averaged ECG in patients with AF is delay in the intra-atrial and interatrial conduction. Similar to the ventricular signal-averaged ECG, the atrial signal-averaged ECG is an averaging of a high number of consecutive P waves that match the template created earlier P wave triggering is preferred over QRS triggering because of more accurate aligning. However, the small amplitude of the atrial ECG and its gradual increase from the isoelectric line may create difficulties in defining the start point if P wave triggering is used. Studies using P wave triggering and those using QRS triggering demonstrate a prolonged P wave duration in patients with paroxysmal AF. The negative predictive value of this test is relatively high at 60%-80%. The positive predictive value of atrial signal-averaged ECGs in predicting the risk of AF is considerably lower than the negative predictive value. All the data accumulated prospectively on the predictive value of P wave signal-averaging was determined only in patients undergoing coronary bypass surgery or following MI; its value in other patients with paroxysmal AF is still not determined. The clinical role of frequency-domain analysis (alone or added to time-domain analysis) remains undefined. Because of this limited knowledge on the predictive value of P wave signal-averaging, it is still not clinical medicine, and further research is needed before atrial signal-averaged ECG will be part of clinical testing.

Case-finding for cognitive impairment among people with Type 2 diabetes in primary care using the Test Your Memory and Self-Administered Gerocognitive Examination questionnaires: the Cog-ID study.

PubMed

Koekkoek, P S; Janssen, J; Kooistra, M; Biesbroek, J M; Groeneveld, O; van den Berg, E; Kappelle, L J; Biessels, G J; Rutten, G E H M

2016-06-01

To evaluate two cognitive tests for case-finding for cognitive impairment in older patients with Type 2 diabetes. Of 1243 invited patients with Type 2 diabetes, aged ≥70 years, 228 participated in a prospective cohort study. Exclusion criteria were: diagnosis of dementia; previous investigation at a memory clinic; and inability to write or read. Patients first filled out two self-administered cognitive tests (Test Your Memory and Self-Administered Gerocognitive Examination). Secondly, a general practitioner, blinded to Test Your Memory and Self-Administered Gerocognitive Examination scores, performed a structured evaluation using the Mini-Mental State Examination. Subsequently, patients suspected of cognitive impairment (on either the cognitive tests or general practitioner evaluation) and a random sample of 30% of patients not suspected of cognitive impairment were evaluated at a memory clinic. Diagnostic accuracy and area under the curve were determined for the Test Your Memory, Self-Administered Gerocognitive Examination and general practitioner evaluation compared with a memory clinic evaluation to detect cognitive impairment (mild cognitive impairment or dementia). A total of 44 participants were diagnosed with cognitive impairment. The Test Your Memory and Self-Administered Gerocognitive Examination questionnaires had negative predictive values of 81 and 85%, respectively. Positive predictive values were 39 and 40%, respectively. The general practitioner evaluation had a negative predictive value of 83% and positive predictive value of 64%. The area under the curve was ~0.70 for all tests. Both the tests evaluated in the present study can easily be used in case-finding strategies for cognitive impairment in patients with Type 2 diabetes in primary care. The Self-Administered Gerocognitive Examination had the best diagnostic accuracy and therefore we would have a slight preference for this test. Applying the Self-Administered Gerocognitive Examination would considerably reduce the number of patients in whom the general practitioner needs to evaluate cognitive functioning to tailor diabetes treatment. © 2015 Diabetes UK.

CaPTHUS scoring model in primary hyperparathyroidism: can it eliminate the need for ioPTH testing?

PubMed

Elfenbein, Dawn M; Weber, Sara; Schneider, David F; Sippel, Rebecca S; Chen, Herbert

2015-04-01

The CaPTHUS model was reported to have a positive predictive value of 100 % to correctly predict single-gland disease in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism, thus obviating the need for intraoperative parathyroid hormone (ioPTH) testing. We sought to apply the CaPTHUS scoring model in our patient population and assess its utility in predicting long-term biochemical cure. We retrospective reviewed all parathyroidectomies for primary hyperparathyroidism performed at our university hospital from 2003 to 2012. We routinely perform ioPTH testing. Biochemical cure was defined as a normal calcium level at 6 months. A total of 1,421 patients met the inclusion criteria: 78 % of patients had a single adenoma at the time of surgery, 98 % had a normal serum calcium at 1 week postoperatively, and 96 % had a normal serum calcium level 6 months postoperatively. Using the CaPTHUS scoring model, 307 patients (22.5 %) had a score of ≥ 3, with a positive predictive value of 91 % for single adenoma. A CaPTHUS score of ≥ 3 had a positive predictive value of 98 % for biochemical cure at 1 week as well as at 6 months. In our population, where ioPTH testing is used routinely to guide use of bilateral exploration, patients with a preoperative CaPTHUS score of ≥ 3 had good long-term biochemical cure rates. However, the model only predicted adenoma in 91 % of cases. If minimally invasive parathyroidectomy without ioPTH testing had been done for these patients, the cure rate would have dropped from 98 % to an unacceptable 89 %. Even in these patients with high CaPTHUS scores, multigland disease is present in almost 10 %, and ioPTH testing is necessary.

A 10-Gene Classifier for Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules: Development and Multicenter Accuracy Study

PubMed Central

González, Hernán E.; Martínez, José R.; Vargas-Salas, Sergio; Solar, Antonieta; Veliz, Loreto; Cruz, Francisco; Arias, Tatiana; Loyola, Soledad; Horvath, Eleonora; Tala, Hernán; Traipe, Eufrosina; Meneses, Manuel; Marín, Luis; Wohllk, Nelson; Diaz, René E.; Véliz, Jesús; Pineda, Pedro; Arroyo, Patricia; Mena, Natalia; Bracamonte, Milagros; Miranda, Giovanna; Bruce, Elsa

2017-01-01

Background: In most of the world, diagnostic surgery remains the most frequent approach for indeterminate thyroid cytology. Although several molecular tests are available for testing in centralized commercial laboratories in the United States, there are no available kits for local laboratory testing. The aim of this study was to develop a prototype in vitro diagnostic (IVD) gene classifier for the further characterization of nodules with an indeterminate thyroid cytology. Methods: In a first stage, the expression of 18 genes was determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) in a broad histopathological spectrum of 114 fresh-tissue biopsies. Expression data were used to train several classifiers by supervised machine learning approaches. Classifiers were tested in an independent set of 139 samples. In a second stage, the best classifier was chosen as a model to develop a multiplexed-qPCR IVD prototype assay, which was tested in a prospective multicenter cohort of fine-needle aspiration biopsies. Results: In tissue biopsies, the best classifier, using only 10 genes, reached an optimal and consistent performance in the ninefold cross-validated testing set (sensitivity 93% and specificity 81%). In the multicenter cohort of fine-needle aspiration biopsy samples, the 10-gene signature, built into a multiplexed-qPCR IVD prototype, showed an area under the curve of 0.97, a positive predictive value of 78%, and a negative predictive value of 98%. By Bayes' theorem, the IVD prototype is expected to achieve a positive predictive value of 64–82% and a negative predictive value of 97–99% in patients with a cancer prevalence range of 20–40%. Conclusions: A new multiplexed-qPCR IVD prototype is reported that accurately classifies thyroid nodules and may provide a future solution suitable for local reference laboratory testing. PMID:28521616

Performance of the OraQuick HCV rapid antibody test for screening exposed patients in a hepatitis C outbreak investigation.

PubMed

Gao, Fengxiang; Talbot, Elizabeth A; Loring, Carol H; Power, Jill J; Dionne-Odom, Jodie; Alroy-Preis, Sharon; Jackson, Patricia; Bean, Christine L

2014-07-01

During a nosocomial hepatitis C outbreak, emergency public clinics employed the OraQuick HCV rapid antibody test on site, and all results were verified by a standard enzyme immunoassay (EIA). Of 1,157 persons, 1,149 (99.3%) exhibited concordant results between the two tests (16 positive, 1,133 negative). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 94.1%, 99.5%, 72.7%, and 99.9%, respectively. OraQuick performed well as a screening test during an outbreak investigation and could be integrated into future hepatitis C virus (HCV) outbreak testing algorithms. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Sirc-cvs cytotoxicity test: an alternative for predicting rodent acute systemic toxicity.

PubMed

Kitagaki, Masato; Wakuri, Shinobu; Hirota, Morihiko; Tanaka, Noriho; Itagaki, Hiroshi

2006-10-01

An in vitro crystal violet staining method using the rabbit cornea-derived cell line (SIRC-CVS) has been developed as an alternative to predict acute systemic toxicity in rodents. Seventy-nine chemicals, the in vitro cytotoxicity of which was already reported by the Multicenter Evaluation of In vitro Toxicity (MEIC) and ICCVAM/ECVAM, were selected as test compounds. The cells were incubated with the chemicals for 72 hrs and the IC(50) and IC(35) values (microg/mL) were obtained. The results were compared to the in vivo (rat or mouse) "most toxic" oral, intraperitoneal, subcutaneous and intravenous LD(50) values (mg/kg) taken from the RTECS database for each of the chemicals by using Pearson's correlation statistics. The following parameters were calculated: accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, prevalence, positive predictability, and negative predictability. Good linear correlations (Pearson's coefficient; r>0.6) were observed between either the IC(50) or the IC(35) values and all the LD(50) values. Among them, a statistically significant high correlation (r=0.8102, p<0.001) required for acute systemic toxicity prediction was obtained between the IC(50) values and the oral LD(50) values. By using the cut-off concentrations of 2,000 mg/kg (LD(50)) and 4,225 microg/mL (IC(50)), no false negatives were observed, and the accuracy was 84.8%. From this, it is concluded that this method could be used to predict the acute systemic toxicity potential of chemicals in rodents.

Current nonclinical testing paradigm enables safe entry to First-In-Human clinical trials: The IQ consortium nonclinical to clinical translational database.

PubMed

Monticello, Thomas M; Jones, Thomas W; Dambach, Donna M; Potter, David M; Bolt, Michael W; Liu, Maggie; Keller, Douglas A; Hart, Timothy K; Kadambi, Vivek J

2017-11-01

The contribution of animal testing in drug development has been widely debated and challenged. An industry-wide nonclinical to clinical translational database was created to determine how safety assessments in animal models translate to First-In-Human clinical risk. The blinded database was composed of 182 molecules and contained animal toxicology data coupled with clinical observations from phase I human studies. Animal and clinical data were categorized by organ system and correlations determined. The 2×2 contingency table (true positive, false positive, true negative, false negative) was used for statistical analysis. Sensitivity was 48% with a 43% positive predictive value (PPV). The nonhuman primate had the strongest performance in predicting adverse effects, especially for gastrointestinal and nervous system categories. When the same target organ was identified in both the rodent and nonrodent, the PPV increased. Specificity was 84% with an 86% negative predictive value (NPV). The beagle dog had the strongest performance in predicting an absence of clinical adverse effects. If no target organ toxicity was observed in either test species, the NPV increased. While nonclinical studies can demonstrate great value in the PPV for certain species and organ categories, the NPV was the stronger predictive performance measure across test species and target organs indicating that an absence of toxicity in animal studies strongly predicts a similar outcome in the clinic. These results support the current regulatory paradigm of animal testing in supporting safe entry to clinical trials and provide context for emerging alternate models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Summary of longitudinal stability and control parameters as determined from Space Shuttle Challenger flight test data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suit, William T.

1989-01-01

Estimates of longitudinal stability and control parameters for the space shuttle were determined by applying a maximum likelihood parameter estimation technique to Challenger flight test data. The parameters for pitching moment coefficient, C(m sub alpha), (at different angles of attack), pitching moment coefficient, C(m sub delta e), (at different elevator deflections) and the normal force coefficient, C(z sub alpha), (at different angles of attack) describe 90 percent of the response to longitudinal inputs during Space Shuttle Challenger flights with C(m sub delta e) being the dominant parameter. The values of C(z sub alpha) were found to be input dependent for these tests. However, when C(z sub alpha) was set at preflight predictions, the values determined for C(m sub delta e) changed less than 10 percent from the values obtained when C(z sub alpha) was estimated as well. The preflight predictions for C(z sub alpha) and C(m sub alpha) are acceptable values, while the values of C(z sub delta e) should be about 30 percent less negative than the preflight predictions near Mach 1, and 10 percent less negative, otherwise.

Predicting rheological behavior and baking quality of wheat flour using a GlutoPeak test.

PubMed

Rakita, Slađana; Dokić, Ljubica; Dapčević Hadnađev, Tamara; Hadnađev, Miroslav; Torbica, Aleksandra

2018-06-01

The purpose of this research was to gain an insight into the ability of the GlutoPeak instrument to predict flour functionality for bread making, as well as to determine which of the GlutoPeak parameters show the best potential in predicting dough rheological behavior and baking performance. Obtained results showed that GlutoPeak parameters correlated better with the indices of extensional rheological tests which consider constant dough hydration than with those which were performed at constant dough consistency. The GlutoPeak test showed that it is suitable for discriminating wheat varieties of good quality from those of poor quality, while the most discriminating index was maximum torque (MT). Moreover, MT value of 50 BU and aggregation energy value of 1,300 GPU were set as limits of wheat flour quality. The backward stepwise regression analysis revealed that a high-level prediction of indices which are highly affected by protein content (gluten content, flour water absorption, and dough tenacity) was achieved by using the GlutoPeak indices. Concerning bread quality, a moderate prediction of specific loaf volume and an intense level prediction of breadcrumb textural properties were accomplished by using the GlutoPeak parameters. The presented results indicated that the application of this quick test in wheat transformation chain for the assessment of baking quality would be useful. Baking test is considered as the most reliable method for assessing wheat-baking quality. However, baking test requires trained stuff, time, and large sample amount. These disadvantages have led to a growing demand to develop new rapid tests which would enable prediction of baked product quality with a limited flour size. Therefore, we tested the possibility of using a GlutoPeak tester to predict loaf volume and breadcrumb textural properties. Discrimination of wheat varieties according to quality with a restricted flour amount was also examined. Furthermore, we proposed the limit values of GlutoPeak parameters which would be highly beneficial for millers and bakers when determine suitability of flour for end-use. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Furosemide/Fludrocortisone Test and Clinical Parameters to Diagnose Incomplete Distal Renal Tubular Acidosis in Kidney Stone Formers.

PubMed

Dhayat, Nasser A; Gradwell, Michael W; Pathare, Ganesh; Anderegg, Manuel; Schneider, Lisa; Luethi, David; Mattmann, Cedric; Moe, Orson W; Vogt, Bruno; Fuster, Daniel G

2017-09-07

Incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis is a well known cause of calcareous nephrolithiasis but the prevalence is unknown, mostly due to lack of accepted diagnostic tests and criteria. The ammonium chloride test is considered as gold standard for the diagnosis of incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis, but the furosemide/fludrocortisone test was recently proposed as an alternative. Because of the lack of rigorous comparative studies, the validity of the furosemide/fludrocortisone test in stone formers remains unknown. In addition, the performance of conventional, nonprovocative parameters in predicting incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis has not been studied. We conducted a prospective study in an unselected cohort of 170 stone formers that underwent sequential ammonium chloride and furosemide/fludrocortisone testing. Using the ammonium chloride test as gold standard, the prevalence of incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis was 8%. Sensitivity and specificity of the furosemide/fludrocortisone test were 77% and 85%, respectively, yielding a positive predictive value of 30% and a negative predictive value of 98%. Testing of several nonprovocative clinical parameters in the prediction of incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis revealed fasting morning urinary pH and plasma potassium as the most discriminative parameters. The combination of a fasting morning urinary threshold pH <5.3 with a plasma potassium threshold >3.8 mEq/L yielded a negative predictive value of 98% with a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 77% for the diagnosis of incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis. The furosemide/fludrocortisone test can be used for incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis screening in stone formers, but an abnormal furosemide/fludrocortisone test result needs confirmation by ammonium chloride testing. Our data furthermore indicate that incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis can reliably be excluded in stone formers by use of nonprovocative clinical parameters. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

[Design and validation of an instrument to assess families at risk for health problems].

PubMed

Puschel, Klaus; Repetto, Paula; Solar, María Olga; Soto, Gabriela; González, Karla

2012-04-01

There is a paucity of screening instruments with a high clinical predictive value to identify families at risk and therefore, develop focused interventions in primary care. To develop an easy to apply screening instrument with a high clinical predictive value to identify families with a higher health vulnerability. In the first stage of the study an instrument with a high content validity was designed through a review of existent instruments, qualitative interviews with families and expert opinions following a Delphi approach of three rounds. In the second stage, concurrent validity was tested through a comparative analysis between the pilot instrument and a family clinical interview conducted to 300 families randomly selected from a population registered at a primary care clinic in Santiago. The sampling was blocked based on the presence of diabetes, depression, child asthma, behavioral disorders, presence of an older person or the lack of previous conditions among family members. The third stage, was directed to test the clinical predictive validity of the instrument by comparing the baseline vulnerability obtained by the instrument and the change in clinical status and health related quality of life perceptions of the family members after nine months of follow-up. The final SALUFAM instrument included 13 items and had a high internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha: 0.821), high test re-test reproducibility (Pearson correlation: 0.84) and a high clinical predictive value for clinical deterioration (Odds ratio: 1.826; 95% confidence intervals: 1.101-3.029). SALUFAM instrument is applicable, replicable, has a high content validity, concurrent validity and clinical predictive value.

Group Sequential Testing of the Predictive Accuracy of a Continuous Biomarker with Unknown Prevalence

PubMed Central

Koopmeiners, Joseph S.; Feng, Ziding

2015-01-01

Group sequential testing procedures have been proposed as an approach to conserving resources in biomarker validation studies. Previously, Koopmeiners and Feng (2011) derived the asymptotic properties of the sequential empirical positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value curves, which summarize the predictive accuracy of a continuous marker, under case-control sampling. A limitation of their approach is that the prevalence can not be estimated from a case-control study and must be assumed known. In this manuscript, we consider group sequential testing of the predictive accuracy of a continuous biomarker with unknown prevalence. First, we develop asymptotic theory for the sequential empirical PPV and NPV curves when the prevalence must be estimated, rather than assumed known in a case-control study. We then discuss how our results can be combined with standard group sequential methods to develop group sequential testing procedures and bias-adjusted estimators for the PPV and NPV curve. The small sample properties of the proposed group sequential testing procedures and estimators are evaluated by simulation and we illustrate our approach in the context of a study to validate a novel biomarker for prostate cancer. PMID:26537180

Time-to-positivity, type of culture media and oxidase test performed on positive blood culture vials to predict Pseudomonas aeruginosa in patients with Gram-negative bacilli bacteraemia.

PubMed

Cobos-Triguero, N; Zboromyrska, Y; Morata, L; Alejo, I; De La Calle, C; Vergara, A; Cardozo, C; Arcas, M P; Soriano, A; Marco, F; Mensa, J; Almela, M; Martínez, J A

2017-02-01

The aim of this study was to determine the usefulness of oxidase test and time-to-positivity (TTP) in aerobic and anaerobic blood culture vials to detect the presence of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in patients with Gram-negative bacilli (GNB) bacteraemia. TTP was recorded for each aerobic and anaerobic blood culture vial of monomicrobial bacteraemia due to GNB. Oxidase test was performed in a pellet of the centrifuged content of the positive blood culture. An algorithm was developed in order to perform the oxidase test efficiently taking into account TTP and type of vial. A total of 341 episodes of GNB bacteraemia were analysed. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the oxidase test performed on positive vials with GNB to predict P. aeruginosa were 95%, 99%, 91%, and 99%, respectively. When growth was first or exclusively detected in anaerobic vials, P. aeruginosa was never identified hence the performance of the oxidase test could be avoided. When growth was only or first detected in aerobic vials, a TTP≥8h predicted P. aeruginosa in 37% or cases (63 of 169), therefore oxidase test is highly recommended. Oxidase test performed onto positive blood culture vials previously selected by TTP and type of vials is an easy and inexpensive way to predict P. aeruginosa. In most cases, this can lead to optimization of treatment in less than 24 hours.

The relationship between walking, manual dexterity, cognition and activity/participation in persons with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Kierkegaard, Marie; Einarsson, Ulrika; Gottberg, Kristina; von Koch, Lena; Holmqvist, Lotta Widén

2012-05-01

Multiple sclerosis has a vast impact on health, but the relationship between walking, manual dexterity, cognition and activity/participation is unclear. The specific aims were to explore the discriminative ability of measures of walking, manual dexterity and cognition, and to identify cut-off values in these measures, for prediction of independence in personal and instrumental activities of daily living (ADL) and activity/participation in social and lifestyle activities. Data from 164 persons with multiple sclerosis were collected during home visits with the following measures: the 2 × 5 m walk test, the Nine-hole Peg Test, the Symbol Digit Modalities Test, the Katz Personal and Instrumental ADL Indexes, and the Frenchay Activities Index (measuring frequency in social and lifestyle activities). The 2 × 5 m walk test and the Nine-hole Peg Test had high and better discriminative and predictive ability than the Symbol Digit Modalities Test. Cut-off values were identified. The accuracy of predictions was increased above all by combining the 2 × 5 m walk test and the Nine-hole Peg Test. The proposed cut-off values in the 2 × 5 m walk test and the Nine-hole Peg Test may be used as indicators of functioning and to identify persons risking activity limitations and participation restrictions. However, further studies are needed to confirm the usefulness in clinical practice.

Gamma Interferon Release Assays for Detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection

PubMed Central

Denkinger, Claudia M.; Kik, Sandra V.; Rangaka, Molebogeng X.; Zwerling, Alice; Oxlade, Olivia; Metcalfe, John Z.; Cattamanchi, Adithya; Dowdy, David W.; Dheda, Keertan; Banaei, Niaz

2014-01-01

SUMMARY Identification and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) can substantially reduce the risk of developing active disease. However, there is no diagnostic gold standard for LTBI. Two tests are available for identification of LTBI: the tuberculin skin test (TST) and the gamma interferon (IFN-γ) release assay (IGRA). Evidence suggests that both TST and IGRA are acceptable but imperfect tests. They represent indirect markers of Mycobacterium tuberculosis exposure and indicate a cellular immune response to M. tuberculosis. Neither test can accurately differentiate between LTBI and active TB, distinguish reactivation from reinfection, or resolve the various stages within the spectrum of M. tuberculosis infection. Both TST and IGRA have reduced sensitivity in immunocompromised patients and have low predictive value for progression to active TB. To maximize the positive predictive value of existing tests, LTBI screening should be reserved for those who are at sufficiently high risk of progressing to disease. Such high-risk individuals may be identifiable by using multivariable risk prediction models that incorporate test results with risk factors and using serial testing to resolve underlying phenotypes. In the longer term, basic research is necessary to identify highly predictive biomarkers. PMID:24396134

Reliability of fluorescein dye disappearance test in assessment of adults with nasolacrimal duct obstruction.

PubMed

Kashkouli, Mohsen Bahmani; Mirzajani, Hoora; Jamshidian-Tehrani, Mansooreh; Pakdel, Farzad; Nojomi, Marzieh; Aghaei, Gholam-Hossein

2013-01-01

To evaluate the role of fluorescein dye disappearance test (FDDT) in assessment of adults with primary acquired nasolacrimal duct obstruction (PANDO) and its correlation with age and severity of epiphora. In a prospective, cross-sectional comparative study, FDDT at 2 (2-FDDT), 5 (5-FDDT), and 10 (10-FDDT) minutes were performed in 58 eyes of 58 patients with PANDO (case) and 58 eyes of 58 subjects without epiphora (control) between 2008 and 2010. Exclusion criteria were any disease, trauma, or medications that might have an effect on tear drainage system. Patients with functional or incomplete obstruction and upper lacrimal drainage system obstruction were excluded in the case group. FDDT and severity of epiphora were graded. Case and control groups were matched. 2-FDDT showed a sensitivity of 82.8%, specificity of 91.4%, positive predictive value of 90.6%, and negative predictive value of 84.1%. Sensitivity and negative predictive value decreased to 71.1% and 78.6% in 5-FDDT. 5-FDDT specificity and positive predictive value, however, increased to 94.8% and 93.5%, respectively. There was no statistically significant correlation between severity of epiphora and age with FDDT. FDDT is a simple, reliable, and highly specific test in assessment of adults with PANDO.

Accuracy of simple biochemical tests in identifying liver fibrosis in patients co-infected with human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C virus.

PubMed

Tural, Cristina; Tor, Jordi; Sanvisens, Arantza; Pérez-Alvarez, Núria; Martínez, Elisenda; Ojanguren, Isabel; García-Samaniego, Javier; Rockstroh, Juergen; Barluenga, Eva; Muga, Robert; Planas, Ramon; Sirera, Guillem; Rey-Joly, Celestino; Clotet, Bonaventura

2009-03-01

We assessed the ability of 3 simple biochemical tests to stage liver fibrosis in patients co-infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV). We analyzed liver biopsy samples from 324 consecutive HIV/HCV-positive patients (72% men; mean age, 38 y; mean CD4+ T-cell counts, 548 cells/mm(3)). Scheuer fibrosis scores were as follows: 30% had F0, 22% had F1, 19% had F2, 23% had F3, and 6% had F4. Logistic regression analyses were used to predict the probability of significant (>or=F2) or advanced (>or=F3) fibrosis, based on numeric scores from the APRI, FORNS, or FIB-4 tests (alone and in combination). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were analyzed to assess diagnostic performance. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves analyses indicated that the 3 tests had similar abilities to identify F2 and F3; the ability of APRI, FORNS, and FIB-4 were as follows: F2 or greater: 0.72, 0.67, and 0.72, respectively; F3 or greater: 0.75, 0.73, and 0.78, respectively. The accuracy of each test in predicting which samples were F3 or greater was significantly higher than for F2 or greater (APRI, FORNS, and FIB-4: >or=F3: 75%, 76%, and 76%, respectively; >or=F2: 66%, 62%, and 68%, respectively). By using the lowest cut-off values for all 3 tests, F3 or greater was ruled out with sensitivity and negative predictive values of 79% to 94% and 87% to 91%, respectively, and 47% to 70% accuracy. Advanced liver fibrosis (>or=F3) was identified using the highest cut-off value, with specificity and positive predictive values of 90% to 96% and 63% to 73%, respectively, and 75% to 77% accuracy. Simple biochemical tests accurately predicted liver fibrosis in more than half the HIV/HCV co-infected patients. The absence and presence of liver fibrosis are predicted fairly using the lowest and highest cut-off levels, respectively.

Developing a computer-controlled simulated digestion system to predict the concentration of metabolizable energy of feedstuffs for rooster.

PubMed

Zhao, F; Ren, L Q; Mi, B M; Tan, H Z; Zhao, J T; Li, H; Zhang, H F; Zhang, Z Y

2014-04-01

Four experiments were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a computer-controlled simulated digestion system (CCSDS) for predicting apparent metabolizable energy (AME) and true metabolizable energy (TME) using in vitro digestible energy (IVDE) content of feeds for roosters. In Exp. 1, the repeatability of the IVDE assay was tested in corn, wheat, rapeseed meal, and cottonseed meal with 3 assays of each sample and each with 5 replicates of the same sample. In Exp. 2, the additivity of IVDE concentration in corn, soybean meal, and cottonseed meal was tested by comparing determined IVDE values of the complete diet with values predicted from measurements on individual ingredients. In Exp. 3, linear models to predict AME and TME based on IVDE were developed with 16 calibration samples. In Exp. 4, the accuracy of prediction models was tested by the differences between predicted and determined values for AME or TME of 6 ingredients and 4 diets. In Exp. 1, the mean CV of IVDE was 0.88% (range = 0.20 to 2.14%) for corn, wheat, rapeseed meal, and cottonseed meal. No difference in IVDE was observed between 3 assays of an ingredient, indicating that the IVDE assay is repeatable under these conditions. In Exp. 2, minimal differences (<21 kcal/kg) were observed between determined and calculated IVDE of 3 complete diets formulated with corn, soybean meal, and cottonseed meal, demonstrating that the IVDE values are additive in a complete diet. In Exp. 3, linear relationships between AME and IVDE and between TME and IVDE were observed in 16 calibration samples: AME = 1.062 × IVDE - 530 (R(2) = 0.97, residual standard deviation [RSD] = 146 kcal/kg, P < 0.001) and TME = 1.050 × IVDE - 16 (R(2) = 0.97, RSD = 148 kcal/kg, P < 0.001). Differences of less than 100 kcal/kg were observed between determined and predicted values in 10 and 9 of the 16 calibration samples for AME and TME, respectively. In Exp. 4, differences of less than 100 kcal/kg between determined and predicted values were observed in 3 and 4 of the 6 ingredient samples for AME and TME, respectively, and all 4 diets showed the differences of less than 25 kcal/kg between determined and predicted AME or TME. Our results indicate that the CCSDS is repeatable and additive. This system accurately predicted AME or TME on 17 of the 26 samples and may be a promising method to predict the energetic values of feed for poultry.

A function approximation approach to anomaly detection in propulsion system test data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitehead, Bruce A.; Hoyt, W. A.

1993-01-01

Ground test data from propulsion systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) can be automatically screened for anomalies by a neural network. The neural network screens data after being trained with nominal data only. Given the values of 14 measurements reflecting external influences on the SSME at a given time, the neural network predicts the expected nominal value of a desired engine parameter at that time. We compared the ability of three different function-approximation techniques to perform this nominal value prediction: a novel neural network architecture based on Gaussian bar basis functions, a conventional back propagation neural network, and linear regression. These three techniques were tested with real data from six SSME ground tests containing two anomalies. The basis function network trained more rapidly than back propagation. It yielded nominal predictions with, a tight enough confidence interval to distinguish anomalous deviations from the nominal fluctuations in an engine parameter. Since the function-approximation approach requires nominal training data only, it is capable of detecting unknown classes of anomalies for which training data is not available.

Fatigue delamination onset prediction in tapered composite laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murri, Gretchen Bostaph; Salpekar, Satish A.; Obrien, T. Kevin

1989-01-01

Tapered (0 deg) laminates of S2/CE9000 and S2/SP250 glass/epoxies, and IM6/1827I graphite/epoxy were tested in cyclic tension. The specimens usually showed some initial stable delaminations in the tapered region, but these did not affect the stiffness of the specimens, and loading was continued until the specimens either delaminated unstably, or reached 10(exp 6) to 2 x 10(exp 7) million cycles with no unstable delamination. The final unstable delamination originated at the junction of the thin and tapered regions. A finite-element model was developed for the tapered laminate with and without the initial stable delaminations observed in the tests. The analysis showed that for both cases the most likely place for an opening (Mode 1) delamination to originate is at the junction of the taper and thin regions. For each material type, the models were used to calculate the strain energy release rate, G, associated with delaminations originating at that junction and growing either into the thin region or tapered region. For the materials tested, cyclic G(sub Imax) values from DCB tests were used with the maximum strain energy release rates calculated from the finite-element analysis to predict the onset of unstable delamination at the junction as a function of fatigue cycles. The predictions were compared to experimental values of maximum cyclic load as a function of cycles to unstable delamination from fatigue tests in tapered laminates. For the IM6/1827I and S2/SP250 laminates, the predictions agreed very well with the test data. Predicted values for the S2/CE9000 were conservative compared to the test data.

Effect of hardness on acute toxicity of metal mixtures using Daphnia magna: prediction of acid mine drainage toxicity.

PubMed

Yim, Jin Hee; Kim, Kyoung W; Kim, Sang D

2006-11-02

In this study, the effect of hardness on the combined outcome of metal mixtures was investigated using Daphnia magna. The toxic unit (TU) was calculated using modified LC(50) values based on the hardness (i.e., LC(50-soft) and LC(50-hard)). From a bioassay test, the degree of sensitivity to hardness on the toxicity changes was in the order: Cd

Multistix 10 SG Leukocyte Esterage Dipstick Testing in Rapid Bedside Diagnosis of Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis: A Prospective Study.

PubMed

Jha, Ashish K; Kumawat, Dal C; Bolya, Yasvant K; Goenka, Mahesh K

2012-09-01

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) requires rapid diagnosis and the initiation of antibiotics. Diagnosis of SBP is usually based on cytobacteriological examination of ascitic fluid. These tests require good laboratory facilities and reporting time of few hours to 1-2 day. However, the 24 h laboratory facilities not widely available in country like India. We evaluated the diagnostic utility of reagent strip (Multistix 10 SG(®)) for rapid diagnosis of SBP. The study was prospectively carried out on patients of cirrhosis with ascites. Bedside leukocyte esterase reagent strip testing was performed on ascitic fluid. Cell count as determined by colorimetric scale of reagent strip was compared with counting chamber method. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy were calculated. Out of 100 patients with cirrhotic ascites, [72 males: 28 female; mean age 44.34 (SD 13.03) years] 18 patients were diagnosed to have SBP by counting chamber method as compared to 14 patients detected to have SBP by reagent strip test ≥++ positive. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy of reagent strip ≥++ positive were 77.77%, 95.12%, 77.77%, 95.12% and 92% respectively compared to counting chamber method. Reagent strip to diagnose SBP is very specific but less sensitive as compared to counting chamber method. This can be performed rapidly, easily and efficiently even in remote area of developing countries. This bedside test could be a useful tool for the diagnosis of SBP in country like India.

Reagent strip testing is not sensitive for the screening of asymptomatic bacteriuria in pregnant women.

PubMed

Lumbiganon, Pisake; Chongsomchai, Chompilas; Chumworathayee, Bundit; Thinkhamrop, Jadsada

2002-08-01

The objective of the study was to assess the diagnostic performance of the reagent strip in screening for asymptomatic bacteriuria in pregnant women using urine culture as a gold standard. This study comprised 204 asymptomatic pregnant women who attended their first antenatal care at Srinagarind Hospital, Khon Kaen University from April 1, 1999 to June 30, 1999. Women with symptoms of urinary tract infection, antibiotic treatment within the previous 7 days, pregnancy-induced hypertension, bleeding per vagina and history of urinary tract diseases were excluded. Urine specimens were collected by clean catched midstream urine technique for urinalysis, reagent strip test and urine culture. Diagnostic performance of reagent strip in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value was analyzed. Urine reagent strip test had a sensitivity of 13.9 per cent, a specificity of 95.6 per cent, a positive predictive value of 46.1 per cent, a negative predictive value of 80.6 per cent in detecting asymptomatic bacteriuria in pregnant women.

Mapping the EORTC QLQ-C30 onto the EQ-5D-3L: assessing the external validity of existing mapping algorithms.

PubMed

Doble, Brett; Lorgelly, Paula

2016-04-01

To determine the external validity of existing mapping algorithms for predicting EQ-5D-3L utility values from EORTC QLQ-C30 responses and to establish their generalizability in different types of cancer. A main analysis (pooled) sample of 3560 observations (1727 patients) and two disease severity patient samples (496 and 93 patients) with repeated observations over time from Cancer 2015 were used to validate the existing algorithms. Errors were calculated between observed and predicted EQ-5D-3L utility values using a single pooled sample and ten pooled tumour type-specific samples. Predictive accuracy was assessed using mean absolute error (MAE) and standardized root-mean-squared error (RMSE). The association between observed and predicted EQ-5D utility values and other covariates across the distribution was tested using quantile regression. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated using observed and predicted values to test responsiveness. Ten 'preferred' mapping algorithms were identified. Two algorithms estimated via response mapping and ordinary least-squares regression using dummy variables performed well on number of validation criteria, including accurate prediction of the best and worst QLQ-C30 health states, predicted values within the EQ-5D tariff range, relatively small MAEs and RMSEs, and minimal differences between estimated QALYs. Comparison of predictive accuracy across ten tumour type-specific samples highlighted that algorithms are relatively insensitive to grouping by tumour type and affected more by differences in disease severity. Two of the 'preferred' mapping algorithms suggest more accurate predictions, but limitations exist. We recommend extensive scenario analyses if mapped utilities are used in cost-utility analyses.

Etiologic predictive value of a rapid immunoassay for the detection of group A Streptococcus antigen from throat swabs in patients presenting with a sore throat.

PubMed

Orda, Ulrich; Gunnarsson, Ronny; Orda, Sabine; Fitzgerald, Mark; Rofe, Geoff; Dargan, Anna

2016-04-01

Clinical reasoning utilizing certain symptoms and scores has not proven to be a reliable decision-making tool to determine whether or not to suspect a group A Streptococcus (GAS) infection in the patient presenting with a sore throat. Culture as the so-called 'gold standard' is impracticable because it takes 1 to 2 days (and even longer in remote locations) for a result, and thus treatment decisions will be made without the result available. Rapid diagnostic antigen tests have demonstrated sufficient sensitivities and specificities in detecting GAS antigens to identify GAS throat infections. Throat swab samples were collected from patients attending the Mount Isa Hospital emergency department for a sore throat; these samples were compared to swab samples collected from healthy controls who did not have a sore throat. Both groups were aged 3-15 years. All swab samples were analyzed with a point-of-care test (Alere Test Pack +Plus with OBC Strep A). The etiologic predictive value (EPV) of the throat swab was calculated. The 95% confidence interval for positive EPV was 88-100% and for negative EPV was 97-99%, depending on assumptions made. This study demonstrates that the point-of-care test Alere Test Pack +Plus Strep A has a high positive predictive value and is able to rule in GAS infection as long as the proportion of carriers is low. Also the negative predictive value for ruling out GAS as the etiologic agent is very high irrespective of the carrier rate. Hence, this test is always useful to rule out GAS infection. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

An investigation of new toxicity test method performance in validation studies: 1. Toxicity test methods that have predictive capacity no greater than chance.

PubMed

Bruner, L H; Carr, G J; Harbell, J W; Curren, R D

2002-06-01

An approach commonly used to measure new toxicity test method (NTM) performance in validation studies is to divide toxicity results into positive and negative classifications, and the identify true positive (TP), true negative (TN), false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) results. After this step is completed, the contingent probability statistics (CPS), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) are calculated. Although these statistics are widely used and often the only statistics used to assess the performance of toxicity test methods, there is little specific guidance in the validation literature on what values for these statistics indicate adequate performance. The purpose of this study was to begin developing data-based answers to this question by characterizing the CPS obtained from an NTM whose data have a completely random association with a reference test method (RTM). Determining the CPS of this worst-case scenario is useful because it provides a lower baseline from which the performance of an NTM can be judged in future validation studies. It also provides an indication of relationships in the CPS that help identify random or near-random relationships in the data. The results from this study of randomly associated tests show that the values obtained for the statistics vary significantly depending on the cut-offs chosen, that high values can be obtained for individual statistics, and that the different measures cannot be considered independently when evaluating the performance of an NTM. When the association between results of an NTM and RTM is random the sum of the complementary pairs of statistics (sensitivity + specificity, NPV + PPV) is approximately 1, and the prevalence (i.e., the proportion of toxic chemicals in the population of chemicals) and PPV are equal. Given that combinations of high sensitivity-low specificity or low specificity-high sensitivity (i.e., the sum of the sensitivity and specificity equal to approximately 1) indicate lack of predictive capacity, an NTM having these performance characteristics should be considered no better for predicting toxicity than by chance alone.

Discussion about different cut-off values of conventional hamstring-to-quadriceps ratio used in hamstring injury prediction among professional male football players

PubMed Central

Michałowska, Martyna; Walczak, Tomasz; Owen, Adam; Grabski, Jakub Krzysztof; Pyda, Andrzej; Piontek, Tomasz; Kotwicki, Tomasz

2017-01-01

Objective To measure the sensitivity and specificity of differences cut-off values for isokinetic Hcon/Qcon ratio in order to improve the capacity to evaluate (retrospectively) the injury of hamstring muscles in professional soccer screened with knee isokinetic tests. Design Retrospective study. Methods Medical and biomechanical data of professional football players playing for the same team for at least one season between 2010 and 2016 were analysed. Hamstring strain injury cases and the reports generated via isokinetic testing were investigated. Isokinetic concentric(con) hamstring(H) and quadriceps(Q) absolute strength in addition with Hcon/Qcon ratio were examined for the injured versus uninjured limbs among injured players, and for the injured and non-injured players. 2 x 2 contingency table was used for comparing variables: predicted injured or predicted uninjured with actual injured or actual uninjured. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratio were calculated for three different cut-off values (0.47 vs. 0.6 vs. 0.658) to compare the discriminative power of an isokinetic test, whilst examining the key value of Hcon/Qcon ratio which may indicate the highest level of ability to predispose a player to injury. McNemar’s chi2 test with Yates’s correction was used to determine agreement between the tests. PQStat software was used for all statistical analysis, and an alpha level of p <0.05 was used for all statistical comparisons. Results 340 isokinetic test reports on both limbs of 66 professional soccer players were analysed. Eleven players suffered hamstring injuries during the analysed period. None of these players sustained recurrence of hamstring injury. One player sustained hamstring strain injury on both legs, thus the total number of injuries was 12. Application of different cut-off values for Hcon/Qcon significantly affected the sensitivity and specificity of isokinetic test used as a tool for muscle injury detection. The use of 0.47 of Hcon/Qcon as a discriminate value resulted in significantly lower sensitivity when compared to 0.658 threshold (sensitivity of 16.7% vs. 91.7%, respectively; t = 6.125,p = 0.0133). Calculated values of specificity (when three different cut-off were applied) were also significantly different. Threshold of 0.6 of Hcon/Qcon resulted with significantly lower specificity compared to 0.47 value (specificity of 46.9% vs. 94.5%, respectively; t = 153.0,p<0.0001), and significantly higher specificity when compared to 0.658 (specificity of 46.9% vs. 24.1%, respectively; t = 229.0, p<0.0001). Conclusion The use of different cut-off values for Hcon/Qcon significantly affected the sensitivity and specificity of isokinetic testing. The interpretation of usefulness of isokinetic test as a screening tool in a group of male professional football players to predict hamstring injury occurrence within the next 12 months might be therefore significantly biased due to the different threshold values of Hcon/Qcon. Using one “normative” value as a cut-off (e.g. 0.47 or 0.60, or 0.658) to quantify soccer players (or not) to the group with a higher risk of knee injury might result in biased outcomes due to the natural strength asymmetry that is observed within the group of soccer players. PMID:29216241

Discussion about different cut-off values of conventional hamstring-to-quadriceps ratio used in hamstring injury prediction among professional male football players.

PubMed

Grygorowicz, Monika; Michałowska, Martyna; Walczak, Tomasz; Owen, Adam; Grabski, Jakub Krzysztof; Pyda, Andrzej; Piontek, Tomasz; Kotwicki, Tomasz

2017-01-01

To measure the sensitivity and specificity of differences cut-off values for isokinetic Hcon/Qcon ratio in order to improve the capacity to evaluate (retrospectively) the injury of hamstring muscles in professional soccer screened with knee isokinetic tests. Retrospective study. Medical and biomechanical data of professional football players playing for the same team for at least one season between 2010 and 2016 were analysed. Hamstring strain injury cases and the reports generated via isokinetic testing were investigated. Isokinetic concentric(con) hamstring(H) and quadriceps(Q) absolute strength in addition with Hcon/Qcon ratio were examined for the injured versus uninjured limbs among injured players, and for the injured and non-injured players. 2 x 2 contingency table was used for comparing variables: predicted injured or predicted uninjured with actual injured or actual uninjured. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratio were calculated for three different cut-off values (0.47 vs. 0.6 vs. 0.658) to compare the discriminative power of an isokinetic test, whilst examining the key value of Hcon/Qcon ratio which may indicate the highest level of ability to predispose a player to injury. McNemar's chi2 test with Yates's correction was used to determine agreement between the tests. PQStat software was used for all statistical analysis, and an alpha level of p <0.05 was used for all statistical comparisons. 340 isokinetic test reports on both limbs of 66 professional soccer players were analysed. Eleven players suffered hamstring injuries during the analysed period. None of these players sustained recurrence of hamstring injury. One player sustained hamstring strain injury on both legs, thus the total number of injuries was 12. Application of different cut-off values for Hcon/Qcon significantly affected the sensitivity and specificity of isokinetic test used as a tool for muscle injury detection. The use of 0.47 of Hcon/Qcon as a discriminate value resulted in significantly lower sensitivity when compared to 0.658 threshold (sensitivity of 16.7% vs. 91.7%, respectively; t = 6.125,p = 0.0133). Calculated values of specificity (when three different cut-off were applied) were also significantly different. Threshold of 0.6 of Hcon/Qcon resulted with significantly lower specificity compared to 0.47 value (specificity of 46.9% vs. 94.5%, respectively; t = 153.0,p<0.0001), and significantly higher specificity when compared to 0.658 (specificity of 46.9% vs. 24.1%, respectively; t = 229.0, p<0.0001). The use of different cut-off values for Hcon/Qcon significantly affected the sensitivity and specificity of isokinetic testing. The interpretation of usefulness of isokinetic test as a screening tool in a group of male professional football players to predict hamstring injury occurrence within the next 12 months might be therefore significantly biased due to the different threshold values of Hcon/Qcon. Using one "normative" value as a cut-off (e.g. 0.47 or 0.60, or 0.658) to quantify soccer players (or not) to the group with a higher risk of knee injury might result in biased outcomes due to the natural strength asymmetry that is observed within the group of soccer players.

Spacecraft Communications System Verification Using On-Axis Near Field Measurement Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keating, Thomas; Baugh, Mark; Gosselin, R. B.; Lecha, Maria C.; Krebs, Carolyn A. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Determination of the readiness of a spacecraft for launch is a critical requirement. The final assembly of all subsystems must be verified. Testing of a communications system can mostly be done using closed-circuits (cabling to/from test ports), but the final connections to the antenna require radiation tests. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Project used a readily available 'near-fleld on-axis' equation to predict the values to be used for comparison with those obtained in a test program. Tests were performed in a 'clean room' environment at both Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and in Japan at the Tanegashima Space Center (TnSC) launch facilities. Most of the measured values agreed with the predicted values to within 0.5 dB. This demonstrates that sometimes you can use relatively simple techniques to make antenna performance measurements when use of the 'far field ranges, anechoic chambers, or precision near-field ranges' are neither available nor practical. Test data and photographs are provided.

[Rapid test for detection of susceptibility to cefotaxime in Enterobacteriaceae].

PubMed

Jiménez-Guerra, Gemma; Hoyos-Mallecot, Yannik; Rodríguez-Granger, Javier; Navarro-Marí, José María; Gutiérrez-Fernández, José

In this work an "in house" rapid test based on the change in pH that is due to hydrolysis for detecting Enterobacteriaceae susceptible to cefotaxime is evaluated. The strains of Enterobacteriaceae from 1947 urine cultures were assessed using MicroScan panels and the "in house" test. This rapid test includes red phenol solution and cefotaxime. Using MicroScan panels, 499 Enterobacteriaceae isolates were evaluated, which included 27 isolates of Escherichia coli producing extended-spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBL), 16 isolates of Klebsiella pneumoniae ESBL and 1 isolate of Klebsiella oxytoca ESBL. The "in house" test offers the following values: sensitivity 98% and specificity 97%, with negative predictive value 100% and positive predictive value 78%. The "in house" test based on the change of pH is useful in our area for detecting presumptively cefotaxime-resistant Enterobacteriaceae strains. Copyright © 2016 Asociación Argentina de Microbiología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Predictive Value of the Korean Academy of Family Medicine In-Training Examination for Certifying Examination

PubMed Central

Kim, Ji-Yong

2011-01-01

Background In-training examination (ITE) is a cognitive examination similar to the written test, but it is different from the Clinical Practice Examination of the Korean Academy of Family Medicine (KAFM) Certification Examination (CE). The objective of this is to estimate the positive predictive value of the KAFM-ITE for identifying residents at risk for poor performance on the three types of KAFM-CE. Methods 372 residents who completed the KAFM-CE in 2011 were included. We compared the mean KAFM-CE scores with ITE experience. We evaluated the correlation and the positive predictive value (PPV) of ITE for the multiple choice question (MCQ) scores of 1st written test & 2nd slide examination, the total clinical practice examination scores, and the total sum of 2nd test. Results 275 out of 372 residents completed ITE. Those who completed ITE had significantly higher MCQ scores of 1st written test than those who did not. The correlation of ITE scores with 1st written MCQ (0.627) was found to be the highest among the other kinds of CE. The PPV of the ITE score for 1st written MCQ scores was 0.672. The PPV of the ITE score ranged from 0.376 to 0.502. Conclusion The score of the KAFM ITE has acceptable positive predictive value that could be used as a part of comprehensive evaluation system for residents in cognitive field. PMID:22745873

Five-year outcome of normal pressure hydrocephalus with or without a shunt: predictive value of the clinical signs, neuropsychological evaluation and infusion test.

PubMed

Savolainen, S; Hurskainen, H; Paljärvi, L; Alafuzoff, I; Vapalahti, M

2002-06-01

Between 1993-1995, 51 patients under 75 years of age with clinical symptoms and CT-based diagnosis of normal pressure hydrocephalus were investigated prospectively in order to clarify the value of neuropsychological tests, clinical symptoms and signs and infusion test in the differential diagnosis and prediction of outcome in normal pressure hydrocephalus. Patients had a thorough neurological examination, and neuropsychological evaluation. A 24-hour intraventricular ICP-measurement, infusion test, neurophysiological investigations and MRI study were performed, and a cortical biopsy was obtained. The ICP measurement defined the need for a shunt. All 51 patients were re-examined three and twelve months later. The final follow-up was accomplished five years postoperatively. 25 of the patients needed a shunt operation. One year after a shunt placement 72% of these patients had a good recovery concerning activities of daily living, 58% benefited in their urinary incontinence and 57% walked better. During the 5 years of follow-up 8 patients with shunt and 9 without shunt had died. Positive effect of shunting remained. Only one neuropsychological test, recognition of words test, distinguishes the patients with the need for a shunt. Simple mini mental examination test was not different in those who improved. In the postoperative follow-up patients with shunt showed no change in neuropsychological tests even if they were subjectively better. The infusion test was of no value in diagnosing NPH. The 16 patients with Alzheimer's disease did worse after one year than those without pathological changes, but the mortality was not increased. Specific neuropsychological tests are of little value in diagnosing NPH. Mini-Mental status examination was neither of value in diagnosing NPH nor in prediction of the outcome. In this study the infusion test did not improve diagnostic accuracy of NPH, but shunt placement relieves urinary incontinence and walking disability in patients with increased ICP. The patients with positive Alzheimer diagnosis on biopsy did not improve.

Shunting normal pressure hydrocephalus: the predictive value of combined clinical and CT data.

PubMed

Vanneste, J; Augustijn, P; Tan, W F; Dirven, C

1993-03-01

The value of an ordinal global scale derived from combined clinical and CT data (clin/CT scale) to predict the clinical outcome in 112 patients shunted for presumed normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) was analysed. The clinical data were retrospectively collected, all CT scans were re-evaluated, and the clin/CT scale was determined blind to the results of further ancillary tests and to the post-surgical outcome. The scale ranked three classes of prediction: on the basis of clinical and CT characteristics, improvement after shunting was probable, possible, or improbable. The predictive value of the clin/CT scale for the subgroup of communicating NPH was established for two different strategies, depending on the strictness of selection criteria for shunting. In the subgroup of patients with presumed communicating NPH, the prevalence of shunt responsiveness was 29%; the best strategy was to shunt only patients with probable shunt-responsive NPH: the sensitivity was 0.54, the specificity 0.84, and the predictive accuracy 0.75, with a limited number of ineffective shunts (11%) and missed improvements (13%). The study illustrates its need to assess the pre-test probability of NPH based on combined clinical and CT data, before establishing the clinical usefulness of an ancillary test.

Shunting normal pressure hydrocephalus: the predictive value of combined clinical and CT data.

PubMed Central

Vanneste, J; Augustijn, P; Tan, W F; Dirven, C

1993-01-01

The value of an ordinal global scale derived from combined clinical and CT data (clin/CT scale) to predict the clinical outcome in 112 patients shunted for presumed normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) was analysed. The clinical data were retrospectively collected, all CT scans were re-evaluated, and the clin/CT scale was determined blind to the results of further ancillary tests and to the post-surgical outcome. The scale ranked three classes of prediction: on the basis of clinical and CT characteristics, improvement after shunting was probable, possible, or improbable. The predictive value of the clin/CT scale for the subgroup of communicating NPH was established for two different strategies, depending on the strictness of selection criteria for shunting. In the subgroup of patients with presumed communicating NPH, the prevalence of shunt responsiveness was 29%; the best strategy was to shunt only patients with probable shunt-responsive NPH: the sensitivity was 0.54, the specificity 0.84, and the predictive accuracy 0.75, with a limited number of ineffective shunts (11%) and missed improvements (13%). The study illustrates its need to assess the pre-test probability of NPH based on combined clinical and CT data, before establishing the clinical usefulness of an ancillary test. PMID:8459240

22 Years of predictive testing for Huntington's disease: the experience of the UK Huntington's Prediction Consortium.

PubMed

Baig, Sheharyar S; Strong, Mark; Rosser, Elisabeth; Taverner, Nicola V; Glew, Ruth; Miedzybrodzka, Zosia; Clarke, Angus; Craufurd, David; Quarrell, Oliver W

2016-10-01

Huntington's disease (HD) is a progressive neurodegenerative condition. At-risk individuals have accessed predictive testing via direct mutation testing since 1993. The UK Huntington's Prediction Consortium has collected anonymised data on UK predictive tests, annually, from 1993 to 2014: 9407 predictive tests were performed across 23 UK centres. Where gender was recorded, 4077 participants were male (44.3%) and 5122 were female (55.7%). The median age of participants was 37 years. The most common reason for predictive testing was to reduce uncertainty (70.5%). Of the 8441 predictive tests on individuals at 50% prior risk, 4629 (54.8%) were reported as mutation negative and 3790 (44.9%) were mutation positive, with 22 (0.3%) in the database being uninterpretable. Using a prevalence figure of 12.3 × 10(-5), the cumulative uptake of predictive testing in the 50% at-risk UK population from 1994 to 2014 was estimated at 17.4% (95% CI: 16.9-18.0%). We present the largest study conducted on predictive testing in HD. Our findings indicate that the vast majority of individuals at risk of HD (>80%) have not undergone predictive testing. Future therapies in HD will likely target presymptomatic individuals; therefore, identifying the at-risk population whose gene status is unknown is of significant public health value.

Establishing a sample-to cut-off ratio for lab-diagnosis of hepatitis C virus in Indian context.

PubMed

Tiwari, Aseem K; Pandey, Prashant K; Negi, Avinash; Bagga, Ruchika; Shanker, Ajay; Baveja, Usha; Vimarsh, Raina; Bhargava, Richa; Dara, Ravi C; Rawat, Ganesh

2015-01-01

Lab-diagnosis of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is based on detecting specific antibodies by enzyme immuno-assay (EIA) or chemiluminescence immuno-assay (CIA). Center for Disease Control reported that signal-to-cut-off (s/co) ratios in anti-HCV antibody tests like EIA/CIA can be used to predict the probable result of supplemental test; above a certain s/co value it is most likely to be true-HCV positive result and below that certain s/co it is most likely to be false-positive result. A prospective study was undertaken in patients in tertiary care setting for establishing this "certain" s/co value. The study was carried out in consecutive patients requiring HCV testing for screening/diagnosis and medical management. These samples were tested for anti-HCV on CIA (VITROS(®) Anti-HCV assay, Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics, New Jersey) for calculating s/co value. The supplemental nucleic acid test used was polymerase chain reaction (PCR) (Abbott). PCR test results were used to define true negatives, false negatives, true positives, and false positives. Performance of different putative s/co ratios versus PCR was measured using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value and most appropriate s/co was considered on basis of highest specificity at sensitivity of at least 95%. An s/co ratio of ≥6 worked out to be over 95% sensitive and almost 92% specific in 438 consecutive patient samples tested. The s/co ratio of six can be used for lab-diagnosis of HCV infection; those with s/co higher than six can be diagnosed to have HCV infection without any need for supplemental assays.

Diagnostic value and cost utility analysis for urine Gram stain and urine microscopic examination as screening tests for urinary tract infection.

PubMed

Wiwanitkit, Viroj; Udomsantisuk, Nibhond; Boonchalermvichian, Chaiyaporn

2005-06-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic properties of urine Gram stain and urine microscopic examination for screening for urinary tract infection (UTI), and to perform an additional cost utility analysis. This descriptive study was performed on 95 urine samples sent for urine culture to the Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University. The first part of the study was to determine the diagnostic properties of two screening tests (urine Gram stain and urine microscopic examination). Urine culture was set as the gold standard and the results from both methods were compared to this. The second part of this study was to perform a cost utility analysis. The sensitivity of urine Gram stain was 96.2%, the specificity 93.0%, the positive predictive value 94.3% and the negative predictive value 95.2%. False positives occurred with a frequency of 7.0% and false negatives 3.8%. For the microscopic examination, the sensitivity was 65.4%, specificity 74.4%, positive predictive value 75.6% and negative predictive value 64.0%. False positives occurred with a frequency of 25.6% and false negatives 34.6%. Combining urine Gram stain and urine microscopic examination, the sensitivity was 98.1%, specificity 74.4%, positive predictive value 82.3% and negative predictive value 97.0%. False positives occurred with a frequency of 25.6% and false negatives 1.9%. However, the cost per utility of the combined method was higher than either urine microscopic examination or urine Gram stain alone. Urine Gram stain provided the lowest cost per utility. Economically, urine Gram stain is the proper screening tool for presumptive diagnosis of UTI.

Predicting Cost and Schedule Growth for Military and Civil Space Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

the Shapiro-Wilk Test , and testing the residuals for constant variance using the Breusch - Pagan test . For logistic models, diagnostics include...the Breusch - Pagan Test . With this test , a p-value below 0.05 rejects the null hypothesis that the residuals have constant variance. Thus, similar...to the Shapiro- Wilk Test , because the optimal model will have constant variance of its residuals, this requires Breusch - Pagan p-values over 0.05

Using liver enzymes as screening tests to predict mortality risk.

PubMed

Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

2008-01-01

Determine the relationship between liver function test results (GGT, alkaline phosphatase, AST, and ALT) and all-cause mortality in life insurance applicants. By use of the Social Security Master Death File, mortality was examined in 1,905,664 insurance applicants for whom blood samples were submitted to the Clinical Reference Laboratory. There were 50,174 deaths observed in this study population. Results were stratified by 3 age/sex groups: females, age <60; males, age <60; and all, age 60+. Liver function test values were grouped using percentiles of their distribution in these 3 age/sex groups, as well as ranges of actual values. Using the risk of the middle 50% of the population by distribution as a reference, relative mortality observed for GGT and alkaline phosphatase was linear with a steep slope from very low to relatively high values. Relative mortality was increased at lower values for both AST and ALT. ALT did not predict mortality for values above the middle 50% of its distribution. GGT and alkaline phosphatase are significant predictors of mortality risk for all values. ALT is still useful for triggering further testing for hepatitis, but AST should be used instead to assess mortality risk linked with transaminases.

Asymptomatic bacteriuria in pregnant women attending Boo-Ali Hospital Tehran Iran: Urine analysis vs. urine culture

PubMed Central

Etminan-Bakhsh, Mina; Tadi, Sima; Darabi, Roksana

2017-01-01

Background Asymptomatic bacteriuria is one of the common problems in pregnancy. Asymptomatic bacteriuria is associated with pyelonephritis, preterm labor and low birth weight infants. The physiological and anatomical changes in pregnancy facilitate urinary tract infection (UTI) during pregnancy. Several tests are available for diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria. The urine culture is a gold standard diagnostic test for asymptomatic bacteriuria but it is expensive and time-consuming. Screening methods may be useful in detecting high-risk pregnant women for asymptomatic bacteriuria. Objective The aim of the present study was to compare urine analysis as a rapid screening test to urine culture in diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria. Methods A total of 123 pregnant women attending the obstetrics clinic of Boo-Ali hospital in Tehran, Iran from March 2013 to September 2014 were included in the present diagnostic cross-sectional study. One hundred twenty three mid-stream urine samples were inoculated into cultures and were processed by dipstick (nitrite test and leucocyte esterase test) and microscopic pus cell count. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of nitrite test, leucocyte esterase test and microscopic pus cell count were compared with urine culture in diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria by using SPSS version 19. Results Of 123 urine samples, significant asymptomatic bacteriuria (≥104 cfu/Ml) was detected in 8 (6.5%) subjects. The sensitivity and specificity of nitrite test were 37% and 100% respectively. The sensitivity of pus cell count alone and leucocyte esterase test alone were 100% but the specificity of them were 64% and 65% respectively. We found high negative predictive value by Pus cell count and the leucocyte esterase test (100%) and low positive predictive value by them (16% and 17% respectively). Conclusion Urine culture is the most useful test for diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria. None of our screening tests had a sensitivity and specificity of 100%, whereas we can only refer the pregnant women with positive leucocyte esterase test and significant pyuria to the urine culture. PMID:29403616

Evaluation of canine adverse food reactions by patch testing with single proteins, single carbohydrates and commercial foods.

PubMed

Johansen, Cornelia; Mariani, Claire; Mueller, Ralf S

2017-10-01

Adverse food reaction (AFR) is an important differential diagnosis for the pruritic dog. It is usually diagnosed by feeding an elimination diet with a novel protein and carbohydrate source for eight weeks followed by subsequent food provocation. A previous study demonstrated that patch testing dogs with foods had a high sensitivity and negative predictability for selection of elimination diet ingredients. The aim of this study was to investigate patch testing with proteins, carbohydrates and dry commercial dog food in dogs to determine whether there was value in patch testing to aid the diagnosis of canine adverse food reaction. Twenty five privately owned dogs, with confirmed AFR, underwent provocation trials with selected food antigens and patch testing. For proteins, carbohydrates and dry dog food the sensitivity of patch testing was 100%, 70% and 22.2%, respectively; the negative predictive values of patch testing were 100%, 79% and 72%. The positive predictive values of patch testing for proteins and carbohydrates were 75% and 74%, respectively. This study confirmed that patch testing may be useful for the selection of a suitable protein source for an elimination diet in dogs with suspected AFR, but not as a diagnostic tool for canine AFR. Results for proteins are more reliable than for carbohydrates and the majority of positive patch test reactions were observed with raw protein. Patch testing with commercial dog food does not seem to be useful. © 2017 ESVD and ACVD.

[Assessment of a rapid diagnostic test for malaria in rural health care facilities in Senegal].

PubMed

Munier, A; Diallo, A; Sokhna, C; Chippaux, J P

2009-10-01

The aim of the study was to determine the accuracy of a rapid diagnostic test in confirming presumptive malaria diagnosis in a rural zone of Senegal. Thick blood smear was used as the reference technique for comparison. METHOHDOLOGY: Testing was conducted on children between the ages of 1 and 14 years at three health care facilities located in the Niakhar are from August 2006 to June 2007. If malaria was suspected by the nurse based on clinical findings, two thick smears and one rapid diagnostic test (Core Malaria Pf) were performed. Blood slides were stained in Niakhar and read in Dakar. A total of 474 patients were examined. Three-fourths (75%) of these patients were seen during the rainy season. Malaria was suspected in 335 patients (71%). Rapid tests and thick smears were obtained in 330 of these patients with positive results in 194 (59%) and 180 (55%) respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the rapid test were 96%, 87%, 90% and 95% respectively. Our data show that the rapid diagnostic test used in this study exhibits good sensitivity and positive predictive value. Despite its cost this test could be helpful in confirming malaria diagnosis in outlying health care facilities without the necessary resources to perform blood smears. Confirmation is necessary to avoid unwarranted prescription of malaria treatment due to inaccurate clinical diagnosis

Screening for tinea unguium by Dermatophyte Test Strip.

PubMed

Tsunemi, Y; Takehara, K; Miura, Y; Nakagami, G; Sanada, H; Kawashima, M

2014-02-01

The direct microscopy, fungal culture and histopathology that are necessary for the definitive diagnosis of tinea unguium are disadvantageous in that detection sensitivity is affected by the level of skill of the person who performs the testing, and the procedures take a long time. The Dermatophyte Test Strip, which was developed recently, can simply and easily detect filamentous fungi in samples in a short time, and there are expectations for its use as a method for tinea unguium screening. With this in mind, we examined the detection capacity of the Dermatophyte Test Strip for tinea unguium. The presence or absence of fungal elements was judged by direct microscopy and Dermatophyte Test Strip in 165 nail samples obtained from residents in nursing homes for the elderly. Moreover, the minimum sample amount required for positive determination was estimated using 32 samples that showed positive results by Dermatophyte Test Strip. The Dermatophyte Test Strip showed 98% sensitivity, 78% specificity, 84·8% positive predictive value, 97% negative predictive value and a positive and negative concordance rate of 89·1%. The minimum sample amount required for positive determination was 0·002-0·722 mg. The Dermatophyte Test Strip showed very high sensitivity and negative predictive value, and was considered a potentially useful method for tinea unguium screening. Positive determination was considered to be possible with a sample amount of about 1 mg. © 2013 British Association of Dermatologists.

Clinical tests performed in acute stroke identify the risk of falling during the first year: postural stroke study in Gothenburg (POSTGOT).

PubMed

Persson, Carina U; Hansson, Per-Olof; Sunnerhagen, Katharina S

2011-03-01

To assess the likelihood of clinical tests for postural balance, walking and motor skills, performed during the first week after stroke, identifying the risk of falling. Prospective study. Patients with first stroke. Assessments were carried out during the first week, and the occurrence of falls was recorded 3, 6 and 12 months after stroke onset. The tests used were: 10-Metre Walking Test (10MWT), Timed Up & Go, Swedish Postural Assessment Scale for Stroke Patients, Berg Balance Scale and Modified Motor Assessment Scale. Cut-off levels were obtained by receiver operation characteristic curves, and odds ratios were used to assess cut-off levels for falling. The analyses were based on 96 patients. Forty-eight percent had at least one fall during the first year. All tests were associated with the risk of falling. The highest predictive values were found for the 10MWT (positive predictive value 64%, negative predictive value 76%). Those subjects who were unable to perform the 10MWT had the highest odds ratio, 6.06 (95% confidence interval 2.66-13.84, p<0.001) of falling. Clinical tests used during the first week after stroke onset can, to some extent, identify those patients at risk of falling during the first year after stroke.

Determination of the acid value of instant noodles: interlaboratory study.

PubMed

Hakoda, Akiko; Sakaida, Kenichi; Suzuki, Tadanao; Yasui, Akemi

2006-01-01

An interlaboratory study was performed to evaluate the method for determining the acid value of instant noodles, based on the Japanese Agricultural Standard (JAS), with extraction of lipid using petroleum ether at a volume of 100 mL to the test portion of 25 g. Thirteen laboratories participated and analyzed 5 test samples as blind duplicates. Statistical treatment revealed that the repeatability (RSDr) of acid value was <6.5%, and the reproducibility (RSDR) of acid value was <9.6%. The HorRat values (RSDR/predicted RSDR) were 1.2-1.8, where the RSDR and the predicted RSDR were obtained in terms of free fatty acids in the noodles per unit weight, using the equation [acid value = percent free fatty acids (as oleic) x 1.99] and the extracted lipid contents. This method was shown to have acceptable precision by the present study.

Predictive value of impaired evacuation at proctography in diagnosing anismus.

PubMed

Halligan, S; Malouf, A; Bartram, C I; Marshall, M; Hollings, N; Kamm, M A

2001-09-01

We aimed to determine the positive predictive value of impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography for the subsequent diagnosis of anismus. Thirty-one adults with signs of impaired evacuation (defined as the inability to evacuate two thirds of a 120 mL contrast enema within 30 sec) during evacuation proctography underwent subsequent anorectal physiologic testing for anismus. A physiologic diagnosis of anismus was based on a typical clinical history of the condition combined with impaired rectal balloon expulsion or abnormal surface electromyogram. Twenty-eight (90%) of the 31 patients with impaired proctographic evacuation were found to have anismus at subsequent physiologic testing. Among the 28 were all 10 patients who evacuated no contrast medium and all 11 patients with inadequate pelvic floor descent, giving evacuation proctography a positive predictive value of 90% for the diagnosis of anismus. A prominent puborectal impression was seen in only three subjects during proctography, one of whom subsequently showed no physiologic sign of anismus. Impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography is highly predictive for diagnosis of anismus.

Gender and Course Selection in Upper Secondary Education: Effects of Academic Self-Concept and Intrinsic Value

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nagy, Gabriel; Trautwein, Ulrich; Baumert, Jurgen; Koller, Olaf; Garrett, Jessica

2006-01-01

Predictions about processes linking gender to students' choices of advanced courses were derived from the internal/external frame of reference (I/E) model and expectancy value (EV) theory. The predictions were tested for the domains of mathematics and biology using data from 1,148 students attending academically oriented secondary schools in…

Incorporating Psychological Predictors of Treatment Response into Health Economic Simulation Models: A Case Study in Type 1 Diabetes.

PubMed

Kruger, Jen; Pollard, Daniel; Basarir, Hasan; Thokala, Praveen; Cooke, Debbie; Clark, Marie; Bond, Rod; Heller, Simon; Brennan, Alan

2015-10-01

. Health economic modeling has paid limited attention to the effects that patients' psychological characteristics have on the effectiveness of treatments. This case study tests 1) the feasibility of incorporating psychological prediction models of treatment response within an economic model of type 1 diabetes, 2) the potential value of providing treatment to a subgroup of patients, and 3) the cost-effectiveness of providing treatment to a subgroup of responders defined using 5 different algorithms. . Multiple linear regressions were used to investigate relationships between patients' psychological characteristics and treatment effectiveness. Two psychological prediction models were integrated with a patient-level simulation model of type 1 diabetes. Expected value of individualized care analysis was undertaken. Five different algorithms were used to provide treatment to a subgroup of predicted responders. A cost-effectiveness analysis compared using the algorithms to providing treatment to all patients. . The psychological prediction models had low predictive power for treatment effectiveness. Expected value of individualized care results suggested that targeting education at responders could be of value. The cost-effectiveness analysis suggested, for all 5 algorithms, that providing structured education to a subgroup of predicted responders would not be cost-effective. . The psychological prediction models tested did not have sufficient predictive power to make targeting treatment cost-effective. The psychological prediction models are simple linear models of psychological behavior. Collection of data on additional covariates could potentially increase statistical power. . By collecting data on psychological variables before an intervention, we can construct predictive models of treatment response to interventions. These predictive models can be incorporated into health economic models to investigate more complex service delivery and reimbursement strategies. © The Author(s) 2015.

Estimation of sensitivity and specificity of pregnancy diagnosis using transrectal ultrasonography and ELISA for pregnancy-associated glycoprotein in dairy cows using a Bayesian latent class model.

PubMed

Shephard, R W; Morton, J M

2018-01-01

To determine the sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of pregnancy diagnosis using transrectal ultrasonography and an ELISA for pregnancy-associated glycoprotein (PAG) in milk, in lactating dairy cows in seasonally calving herds approximately 85-100 days after the start of the herd's breeding period. Paired results were used from pregnancy diagnosis using transrectal ultrasonography and ELISA for PAG in milk carried out approximately 85 and 100 days after the start of the breeding period, respectively, from 879 cows from four herds in Victoria, Australia. A Bayesian latent class model was used to estimate the proportion of cows pregnant, the Se and Sp of each test, and covariances between test results in pregnant and non-pregnant cows. Prior probability estimates were defined using beta distributions for the expected proportion of cows pregnant, Se and Sp for each test, and covariances between tests. Markov Chain Monte Carlo iterations identified posterior distributions for each of the unknown variables. Posterior distributions for each parameter were described using medians and 95% probability (i.e. credible) intervals (PrI). The posterior median estimates for Se and Sp for each test were used to estimate positive predictive and negative predictive values across a range of pregnancy proportions. The estimate for proportion pregnant was 0.524 (95% PrI = 0.485-0.562). For pregnancy diagnosis using transrectal ultrasonography, Se and Sp were 0.939 (95% PrI = 0.890-0.974) and 0.943 (95% PrI = 0.885-0.984), respectively; for ELISA, Se and Sp were 0.963 (95% PrI = 0.919-0.990) and 0.870 (95% PrI = 0.806-0.931), respectively. The estimated covariance between test results was 0.033 (95% PrI = 0.008-0.046) and 0.035 (95% PrI = 0.018-0.078) for pregnant and non-pregnant cows, respectively. Pregnancy diagnosis results using transrectal ultrasonography had a higher positive predictive value but lower negative predictive value than results from the ELISA across the range of pregnancy proportions assessed. Pregnancy diagnosis using transrectal ultrasonography and ELISA for PAG in milk had similar Se but differed in predictive values. Pregnancy diagnosis in seasonally calving herds around 85-100 days after the start of the breeding period using the ELISA is expected to result in a higher negative predictive value but lower positive predictive value than pregnancy diagnosis using transrectal ultrasonography. Thus, with the ELISA, a higher proportion of the cows with negative results will be non-pregnant, relative to results from transrectal ultrasonography, but a lower proportion of cows with positive results will be pregnant.

Process fault detection and nonlinear time series analysis for anomaly detection in safeguards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burr, T.L.; Mullen, M.F.; Wangen, L.E.

In this paper we discuss two advanced techniques, process fault detection and nonlinear time series analysis, and apply them to the analysis of vector-valued and single-valued time-series data. We investigate model-based process fault detection methods for analyzing simulated, multivariate, time-series data from a three-tank system. The model-predictions are compared with simulated measurements of the same variables to form residual vectors that are tested for the presence of faults (possible diversions in safeguards terminology). We evaluate two methods, testing all individual residuals with a univariate z-score and testing all variables simultaneously with the Mahalanobis distance, for their ability to detect lossmore » of material from two different leak scenarios from the three-tank system: a leak without and with replacement of the lost volume. Nonlinear time-series analysis tools were compared with the linear methods popularized by Box and Jenkins. We compare prediction results using three nonlinear and two linear modeling methods on each of six simulated time series: two nonlinear and four linear. The nonlinear methods performed better at predicting the nonlinear time series and did as well as the linear methods at predicting the linear values.« less

[Phenotypic trends and breeding values for canine congenital sensorineural deafness in Dalmatian dogs].

PubMed

Blum, Meike; Distl, Ottmar

2014-01-01

In the present study, breeding values for canine congenital sensorineural deafness, the presence of blue eyes and patches have been predicted using multivariate animal models to test the reliability of the breeding values for planned matings. The dataset consisted of 6669 German Dalmatian dogs born between 1988 and 2009. Data were provided by the Dalmatian kennel clubs which are members of the German Association for Dog Breeding and Husbandry (VDH). The hearing status for all dogs was evaluated using brainstem auditory evoked potentials. The reliability using the prediction error variance of breeding values and the realized reliability of the prediction of the phenotype of future progeny born in each one year between 2006 and 2009 were used as parameters to evaluate the goodness of prediction through breeding values. All animals from the previous birth years were used for prediction of the breeding values of the progeny in each of the up-coming birth years. The breeding values based on pedigree records achieved an average reliability of 0.19 for the future 1951 progeny. The predictive accuracy (R2) for the hearing status of single future progeny was at 1.3%. Combining breeding values for littermates increased the predictive accuracy to 3.5%. Corresponding values for maternal and paternal half-sib groups were at 3.2 and 7.3%. The use of breeding values for planned matings increases the phenotypic selection response over mass selection. The breeding values of sires may be used for planned matings because reliabilities and predictive accuracies for future paternal progeny groups were highest.

Predictive Relationships between Secondary School Students' Human Values, Motivational Beliefs, and Self-Regulated Learning Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tanriseven, Isil; Dilmac, Bulent

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the exploratory and predictive relationships between secondary school students' human values and their motivational beliefs and self-regulated learning strategies and thus to test the relevant model was developed. A correlational filed study was used in this research. The sample of the research…

Development of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for serodiagnosis of ringworm infection in cattle.

PubMed

Bagut, Elena Tatiana; Cambier, Ludivine; Heinen, Marie-Pierre; Cozma, Vasile; Monod, Michel; Mignon, Bernard

2013-08-01

The aim of this study was to develop an in-house enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for the serological diagnosis of ringworm infection in cattle. We used available recombinant forms of Trichophyton rubrum dipeptidyl peptidase V (TruDppV) and T. rubrum leucin aminopeptidase 2 (TruLap2), which are 98% identical to Trichophyton verrucosum orthologues. Field serum samples from 135 cattle with ringworm infection, as confirmed by direct microscopy, fluorescence microscopy, and PCR, and from 55 cattle without any apparent skin lesions or history of ringworm infection that served as negative controls were used. Sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values were determined to evaluate the diagnostic value of our ELISA. Overall, the ELISAs based on recombinant TruDppV and TruLap2 discriminated well between infected animals and healthy controls. Highly significant differences (P < 0.0001, Mann-Whitney U test) were noted between optical density values obtained when sera from infected versus control cattle were tested. The ELISA developed for the detection of specific antibodies against DppV gave 89.6% sensitivity, 92.7% specificity, a 96.8% positive predictive value, and a 78.4% negative predictive value. The recombinant TruLap2-based ELISA displayed 88.1% sensitivity, 90.9% specificity, a 95.9% positive predictive value, and a 75.7% negative predictive value. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first ELISA based on recombinant antigens for assessing immune responses to ringworm infection in cattle; it is particularly suitable for epidemiological studies and also for the evaluation of vaccines and/or vaccination procedures.

Fractional Flow Reserve: Does a Cut-off Value add Value?

PubMed Central

Mohdnazri, Shah R; Keeble, Thomas R

2016-01-01

Fractional flow reserve (FFR) has been shown to improve outcomes when used to guide percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). There have been two proposed cut-off points for FFR. The first was derived by comparing FFR against a series of non-invasive tests, with a value of ≤0.75 shown to predict a positive ischaemia test. It was then shown in the DEFER study that a vessel FFR value of ≥0.75 was associated with safe deferral of PCI. During the validation phase, a ‘grey zone’ for FFR values of between 0.76 and 0.80 was demonstrated, where a positive non-invasive test may still occur, but sensitivity and specificity were sub-optimal. Clinical judgement was therefore advised for values in this range. The FAME studies then moved the FFR cut-off point to ≤0.80, with a view to predicting outcomes. The ≤0.80 cut-off point has been adopted into clinical practice guidelines, whereas the lower value of ≤0.75 is no longer widely used. Here, the authors discuss the data underpinning these cut-off values and the practical implications for their use when using FFR guidance in PCI. PMID:29588700

Getting off on the right foot: subjective value versus economic value in predicting longitudinal job outcomes from job offer negotiations.

PubMed

Curhan, Jared R; Elfenbein, Hillary Anger; Kilduff, Gavin J

2009-03-01

Although negotiation experiences can affect a negotiator's ensuing attitudes and behavior, little is known about their long-term consequences. Using a longitudinal survey design, the authors tested the degree to which economic and subjective value achieved in job offer negotiations predicts employees' subsequent job attitudes and intentions concerning turnover. Results indicate that subjective value predicts greater compensation satisfaction and job satisfaction and lower turnover intention measured 1 year later. Surprisingly, the economic outcomes that negotiators achieved had no apparent effects on these factors. Implications, limitations, and future directions are discussed. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Model Update of a Micro Air Vehicle (MAV) Flexible Wing Frame with Uncertainty Quantification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reaves, Mercedes C.; Horta, Lucas G.; Waszak, Martin R.; Morgan, Benjamin G.

2004-01-01

This paper describes a procedure to update parameters in the finite element model of a Micro Air Vehicle (MAV) to improve displacement predictions under aerodynamics loads. Because of fabrication, materials, and geometric uncertainties, a statistical approach combined with Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) is used to modify key model parameters. Static test data collected using photogrammetry are used to correlate with model predictions. Results show significant improvements in model predictions after parameters are updated; however, computed probabilities values indicate low confidence in updated values and/or model structure errors. Lessons learned in the areas of wing design, test procedures, modeling approaches with geometric nonlinearities, and uncertainties quantification are all documented.

Evaluating Diagnostic Accuracy of Noninvasive Tests in Assessment of Significant Liver Fibrosis in Chronic Hepatitis C Egyptian Patients.

PubMed

Omran, Dalia; Zayed, Rania A; Nabeel, Mohammed M; Mobarak, Lamiaa; Zakaria, Zeinab; Farid, Azza; Hassany, Mohamed; Saif, Sameh; Mostafa, Muhammad; Saad, Omar Khalid; Yosry, Ayman

2018-05-01

Stage of liver fibrosis is critical for treatment decision and prediction of outcomes in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of transient elastography (TE)-FibroScan and noninvasive serum markers tests in the assessment of liver fibrosis in CHC patients, in reference to liver biopsy. One-hundred treatment-naive CHC patients were subjected to liver biopsy, TE-FibroScan, and eight serum biomarkers tests; AST/ALT ratio (AAR), AST to platelet ratio index (APRI), age-platelet index (AP index), fibrosis quotient (FibroQ), fibrosis 4 index (FIB-4), cirrhosis discriminant score (CDS), King score, and Goteborg University Cirrhosis Index (GUCI). Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed to compare the diagnostic accuracy of these noninvasive methods in predicting significant fibrosis in CHC patients. TE-FibroScan predicted significant fibrosis at cutoff value 8.5 kPa with area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) 0.90, sensitivity 83%, specificity 91.5%, positive predictive value (PPV) 91.2%, and negative predictive value (NPV) 84.4%. Serum biomarkers tests showed that AP index and FibroQ had the highest diagnostic accuracy in predicting significant liver fibrosis at cutoff 4.5 and 2.7, AUROC was 0.8 and 0.8 with sensitivity 73.6% and 73.6%, specificity 70.2% and 68.1%, PPV 71.1% and 69.8%, and NPV 72.9% and 72.3%, respectively. Combined AP index and FibroQ had AUROC 0.83 with sensitivity 73.6%, specificity 80.9%, PPV 79.6%, and NPV 75.7% for predicting significant liver fibrosis. APRI, FIB-4, CDS, King score, and GUCI had intermediate accuracy in predicting significant liver fibrosis with AUROC 0.68, 0.78, 0.74, 0.74, and 0.67, respectively, while AAR had low accuracy in predicting significant liver fibrosis. TE-FibroScan is the most accurate noninvasive alternative to liver biopsy. AP index and FibroQ, either as individual tests or combined, have good accuracy in predicting significant liver fibrosis, and are better combined for higher specificity.

The value of predicting restriction of fetal growth and compromise of its wellbeing: Systematic quantitative overviews (meta-analysis) of test accuracy literature.

PubMed

Morris, Rachel K; Khan, Khalid S; Coomarasamy, Aravinthan; Robson, Stephen C; Kleijnen, Jos

2007-03-08

Restriction of fetal growth and compromise of fetal wellbeing remain significant causes of perinatal death and childhood disability. At present, there is a lack of scientific consensus about the best strategies for predicting these conditions before birth. Therefore, there is uncertainty about the best management of pregnant women who might have a growth restricted baby. This is likely to be due to a dearth of clear collated information from individual research studies drawn from different sources on this subject. A series of systematic reviews and meta-analyses will be undertaken to determine, among pregnant women, the accuracy of various tests to predict and/or diagnose fetal growth restriction and compromise of fetal wellbeing. We will search Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, MEDION, citation lists of review articles and eligible primary articles and will contact experts in the field. Independent reviewers will select studies, extract data and assess study quality according to established criteria. Language restrictions will not be applied. Data synthesis will involve meta-analysis (where appropriate), exploration of heterogeneity and publication bias. The project will collate and synthesise the available evidence regarding the value of the tests for predicting restriction of fetal growth and compromise of fetal wellbeing. The systematic overviews will assess the quality of the available evidence, estimate the magnitude of potential benefits, identify those tests with good predictive value and help formulate practice recommendations.

PREDICTION OF POPULATION-LEVEL RESPONSE FROM MYSID TOXICITY TEST DATA USING POPULATION MODEL TECHNIQUES

EPA Science Inventory

Acute and chronic bioassay statistics are used to evaluate the toxicity and the risks of chemical stressors to mysid shrimp Americamysis bahia (formerly Mysidopsis bahia). These include LC50 values from acute tests, chronic values (the geometric mean of the no-obsderved-effect co...

NT-proBNP Predicts All-Cause Mortality in a Population of Insurance Applicants, Follow-up Analysis and Further Observations.

PubMed

Fulks, Michael; Kaufman, Valerie; Clark, Michael; Stout, Robert L

2017-01-01

- Further refine the independent value of NT-proBNP, accounting for the impact of other test results, in predicting all-cause mortality for individual life insurance applicants with and without heart disease. - Using the Social Security Death Master File and multivariate analysis, relative mortality was determined for 245,322 life insurance applicants ages 50 to 89 tested for NT-proBNP (almost all based on age and policy amount) along with other laboratory tests and measurement of blood pressure and BMI. - NT-proBNP values ≤75 pg/mL included the majority of applicants denying heart disease and had the lowest risk, while values >500 pg/mL for females and >300 pg/mL for males had very high relative risk. Those admitting to heart disease had a higher mortality risk for each band of NT-proBNP relative to those denying heart disease but had a similar and equally predictive risk curve. - NT-proBNP is a strong independent predictor of all-cause mortality in the absence or presence of known heart disease but the range of values associated with increased risk varies by sex.

Predictive diagnostic value of the tourniquet test for the diagnosis of dengue infection in adults

PubMed Central

Mayxay, Mayfong; Phetsouvanh, Rattanaphone; Moore, Catrin E; Chansamouth, Vilada; Vongsouvath, Manivanh; Sisouphone, Syho; Vongphachanh, Pankham; Thaojaikong, Thaksinaporn; Thongpaseuth, Soulignasack; Phongmany, Simmaly; Keolouangkhot, Valy; Strobel, Michel; Newton, Paul N

2011-01-01

Objective To examine the accuracy of the admission tourniquet test in the diagnosis of dengue infection among Lao adults. Methods Prospective assessment of the predictive diagnostic value of the tourniquet test for the diagnosis of dengue infection, as defined by IgM, IgG and NS1 ELISAs (Panbio Ltd, Australia), among Lao adult inpatients with clinically suspected dengue infection. Results Of 234 patients with clinically suspected dengue infection on admission, 73% were serologically confirmed to have dengue, while 64 patients with negative dengue serology were diagnosed as having scrub typhus (39%), murine typhus (11%), undetermined typhus (12%), Japanese encephalitis virus (5%), undetermined flavivirus (5%) and typhoid fever (3%); 25% had no identifiable aetiology. The tourniquet test was positive in 29.1% (95% CI = 23.2–34.9%) of all patients and in 34.1% (95% CI = 27.0–41.2%) of dengue-seropositive patients, in 32.7% (95% CI = 23.5–41.8) of those with dengue fever and in 36.4% (95% CI = 24.7–48.0) of those with dengue haemorrhagic fever. Interobserver agreement for the tourniquet test was 90.2% (95% CI = 86.4–94.0) (Kappa = 0.76). Using ELISAs as the diagnostic gold standard, the sensitivity of the tourniquet test was 33.5–34%; its specificity was 84–91%. The positive and negative predictive values were 85–90% and 32.5–34%, respectively. Conclusions The admission tourniquet test has low sensitivity and adds relatively little value to the diagnosis of dengue among Lao adult inpatients with suspected dengue. Although a positive tourniquet test suggests dengue and that treatment of alternative diagnoses may not be needed, a negative test result does not exclude dengue. PMID:20958892

Mathematical model to predict drivers' reaction speeds.

PubMed

Long, Benjamin L; Gillespie, A Isabella; Tanaka, Martin L

2012-02-01

Mental distractions and physical impairments can increase the risk of accidents by affecting a driver's ability to control the vehicle. In this article, we developed a linear mathematical model that can be used to quantitatively predict drivers' performance over a variety of possible driving conditions. Predictions were not limited only to conditions tested, but also included linear combinations of these tests conditions. Two groups of 12 participants were evaluated using a custom drivers' reaction speed testing device to evaluate the effect of cell phone talking, texting, and a fixed knee brace on the components of drivers' reaction speed. Cognitive reaction time was found to increase by 24% for cell phone talking and 74% for texting. The fixed knee brace increased musculoskeletal reaction time by 24%. These experimental data were used to develop a mathematical model to predict reaction speed for an untested condition, talking on a cell phone with a fixed knee brace. The model was verified by comparing the predicted reaction speed to measured experimental values from an independent test. The model predicted full braking time within 3% of the measured value. Although only a few influential conditions were evaluated, we present a general approach that can be expanded to include other types of distractions, impairments, and environmental conditions.

Relative value of diverse brain MRI and blood-based biomarkers for predicting cognitive decline in the elderly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madsen, Sarah K.; Ver Steeg, Greg; Daianu, Madelaine; Mezher, Adam; Jahanshad, Neda; Nir, Talia M.; Hua, Xue; Gutman, Boris A.; Galstyan, Aram; Thompson, Paul M.

2016-03-01

Cognitive decline accompanies many debilitating illnesses, including Alzheimer's disease (AD). In old age, brain tissue loss also occurs along with cognitive decline. Although blood tests are easier to perform than brain MRI, few studies compare brain scans to standard blood tests to see which kinds of information best predict future decline. In 504 older adults from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), we first used linear regression to assess the relative value of different types of data to predict cognitive decline, including 196 blood panel biomarkers, 249 MRI biomarkers obtained from the FreeSurfer software, demographics, and the AD-risk gene APOE. A subset of MRI biomarkers was the strongest predictor. There was no specific blood marker that increased predictive accuracy on its own, we found that a novel unsupervised learning method, CorEx, captured weak correlations among blood markers, and the resulting clusters offered unique predictive power.

Combined use of late phase dimercapto-succinic acid renal scintigraphy and ultrasound as first line screening after urinary tract infection in children.

PubMed

Quirino, Isabel G; Silva, Jose Maria P; Diniz, Jose S; Lima, Eleonora M; Rocha, Ana Cristina S; Simões e Silva, Ana Cristina; Oliveira, Eduardo A

2011-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of dimercapto-succinic acid renal scintigraphy and renal ultrasound in identifying high grade vesicoureteral reflux in children after a first episode of urinary tract infection. A total of 533 children following a first urinary tract infection were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed by 3 diagnostic imaging studies, renal ultrasound, dimercapto-succinic acid scan and voiding cystourethrography. The main event of interest was the presence of high grade (III to V) vesicoureteral reflux. The combined and separate diagnostic accuracy of screening methods was assessed by calculation of diagnostic OR, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and likelihood ratio. A total of 246 patients had reflux, of whom 144 (27%) had high grade (III to V) disease. Sensitivity, negative predictive value and diagnostic OR of ultrasound for high grade reflux were 83.3%, 90.8% and 7.9, respectively. Dimercapto-succinic acid scan had the same sensitivity as ultrasound but a higher negative predictive value (91.7%) and diagnostic OR (10.9). If both tests were analyzed in parallel by using the OR rule, ie a negative diagnosis was established only when both test results were normal, sensitivity increased to 97%, negative predictive value to 97% and diagnostic OR to 25.3. Only 9 children (6.3%) with dilating reflux had an absence of alterations in both tests. Our findings support the idea that ultrasound and dimercapto-succinic acid scan used in combination are reliable predictors of dilating vesicoureteral reflux. Copyright © 2011 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling and Testing of the Viscoelastic Properties of a Graphite Nanoplatelet/Epoxy Composite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Odegard, Gregory M.; Gates, Thomas S.

2005-01-01

In order to facilitate the interpretation of experimental data, a micromechanical modeling procedure is developed to predict the viscoelastic properties of a graphite nanoplatelet/epoxy composite as a function of volume fraction and nanoplatelet diameter. The predicted storage and loss moduli for the composite are compared to measured values from the same material using three test methods; Dynamical Mechanical Analysis, nanoindentation, and quasi-static tensile tests. In most cases, the model and experiments indicate that for increasing volume fractions of nanoplatelets, both the storage and loss moduli increase. Also, the results indicate that for nanoplatelet sizes above 15 microns, nanoindentation is capable of measuring properties of individual constituents of a composite system. Comparison of the predicted values to the measured data helps illustrate the relative similarities and differences between the bulk and local measurement techniques.

The Montreal Cognitive Assessment and the mini-mental state examination as screening instruments for cognitive impairment: item analyses and threshold scores.

PubMed

Damian, Anne M; Jacobson, Sandra A; Hentz, Joseph G; Belden, Christine M; Shill, Holly A; Sabbagh, Marwan N; Caviness, John N; Adler, Charles H

2011-01-01

To perform an item analysis of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) versus the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in the prediction of cognitive impairment, and to examine the characteristics of different MoCA threshold scores. 135 subjects enrolled in a longitudinal clinicopathologic study were administered the MoCA by a single physician and the MMSE by a trained research assistant. Subjects were classified as cognitively impaired or cognitively normal based on independent neuropsychological testing. 89 subjects were found to be cognitively normal, and 46 cognitively impaired (20 with dementia, 26 with mild cognitive impairment). The MoCA was superior in both sensitivity and specificity to the MMSE, although not all MoCA tasks were of equal predictive value. A MoCA threshold score of 26 had a sensitivity of 98% and a specificity of 52% in this population. In a population with a 20% prevalence of cognitive impairment, a threshold of 24 was optimal (negative predictive value 96%, positive predictive value 47%). This analysis suggests the potential for creating an abbreviated MoCA. For screening in primary care, the MoCA threshold of 26 appears optimal. For testing in a memory disorders clinic, a lower threshold has better predictive value. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A comparison of two adaptive multivariate analysis methods (PLSR and ANN) for winter wheat yield forecasting using Landsat-8 OLI images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Pengfei; Jing, Qi

2017-02-01

An assumption that the non-linear method is more reasonable than the linear method when canopy reflectance is used to establish the yield prediction model was proposed and tested in this study. For this purpose, partial least squares regression (PLSR) and artificial neural networks (ANN), represented linear and non-linear analysis method, were applied and compared for wheat yield prediction. Multi-period Landsat-8 OLI images were collected at two different wheat growth stages, and a field campaign was conducted to obtain grain yields at selected sampling sites in 2014. The field data were divided into a calibration database and a testing database. Using calibration data, a cross-validation concept was introduced for the PLSR and ANN model construction to prevent over-fitting. All models were tested using the test data. The ANN yield-prediction model produced R2, RMSE and RMSE% values of 0.61, 979 kg ha-1, and 10.38%, respectively, in the testing phase, performing better than the PLSR yield-prediction model, which produced R2, RMSE, and RMSE% values of 0.39, 1211 kg ha-1, and 12.84%, respectively. Non-linear method was suggested as a better method for yield prediction.

Prediction and visualization of redox conditions in the groundwater of Central Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosecrans, Celia Z.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Gronberg, JoAnn M.

2017-03-01

Regional-scale, three-dimensional continuous probability models, were constructed for aspects of redox conditions in the groundwater system of the Central Valley, California. These models yield grids depicting the probability that groundwater in a particular location will have dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations less than selected threshold values representing anoxic groundwater conditions, or will have dissolved manganese (Mn) concentrations greater than selected threshold values representing secondary drinking water-quality contaminant levels (SMCL) and health-based screening levels (HBSL). The probability models were constrained by the alluvial boundary of the Central Valley to a depth of approximately 300 m. Probability distribution grids can be extracted from the 3-D models at any desired depth, and are of interest to water-resource managers, water-quality researchers, and groundwater modelers concerned with the occurrence of natural and anthropogenic contaminants related to anoxic conditions. Models were constructed using a Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) machine learning technique that produces many trees as part of an additive model and has the ability to handle many variables, automatically incorporate interactions, and is resistant to collinearity. Machine learning methods for statistical prediction are becoming increasing popular in that they do not require assumptions associated with traditional hypothesis testing. Models were constructed using measured dissolved oxygen and manganese concentrations sampled from 2767 wells within the alluvial boundary of the Central Valley, and over 60 explanatory variables representing regional-scale soil properties, soil chemistry, land use, aquifer textures, and aquifer hydrologic properties. Models were trained on a USGS dataset of 932 wells, and evaluated on an independent hold-out dataset of 1835 wells from the California Division of Drinking Water. We used cross-validation to assess the predictive performance of models of varying complexity, as a basis for selecting final models. Trained models were applied to cross-validation testing data and a separate hold-out dataset to evaluate model predictive performance by emphasizing three model metrics of fit: Kappa; accuracy; and the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC). The final trained models were used for mapping predictions at discrete depths to a depth of 304.8 m. Trained DO and Mn models had accuracies of 86-100%, Kappa values of 0.69-0.99, and ROC values of 0.92-1.0. Model accuracies for cross-validation testing datasets were 82-95% and ROC values were 0.87-0.91, indicating good predictive performance. Kappas for the cross-validation testing dataset were 0.30-0.69, indicating fair to substantial agreement between testing observations and model predictions. Hold-out data were available for the manganese model only and indicated accuracies of 89-97%, ROC values of 0.73-0.75, and Kappa values of 0.06-0.30. The predictive performance of both the DO and Mn models was reasonable, considering all three of these fit metrics and the low percentages of low-DO and high-Mn events in the data.

Performance in the 6-minute walk test and postoperative pulmonary complications in pulmonary surgery: an observational study.

PubMed

Santos, Bruna F A; Souza, Hugo C D; Miranda, Aline P B; Cipriano, Federico G; Gastaldi, Ada C

2016-01-01

To assess functional capacity in the preoperative phase of pulmonary surgery by comparing predicted and obtained values for the six-minute walk test (6MWT) in patients with and without postoperative pulmonary complication (PPC) METHOD: Twenty-one patients in the preoperative phase of open thoracotomy were evaluated using the 6MWT, followed by monitoring of the postoperative evolution of each participant who underwent the routine treatment. Participants were then divided into two groups: the group with PPC and the group without PPC. The results were also compared with the predicted values using reference equations for the 6MWT RESULTS: Over half (57.14%) of patients developed PPC. The 6MWT was associated with the odds for PPC (odds ratio=22, p=0.01); the group without PPC in the postoperative period walked 422.38 (SD=72.18) meters during the 6MWT, while the group with PPC walked an average of 340.89 (SD=100.93) meters (p=0.02). The distance traveled by the group without PPC was 80% of the predicted value, whereas the group with PPC averaged less than 70% (p=0.03), with more appropriate predicted values for the reference equations The 6MWT is an easy, safe, and feasible test for routine preoperative evaluation in pulmonary surgery and may indicate patients with a higher chance of developing PPC.

Prediction of toxicity and comparison of alternatives using WebTEST (Web-services Toxicity Estimation Software Tool)

EPA Science Inventory

A Java-based web service is being developed within the US EPA’s Chemistry Dashboard to provide real time estimates of toxicity values and physical properties. WebTEST can generate toxicity predictions directly from a simple URL which includes the endpoint, QSAR method, and ...

Prediction of toxicity and comparison of alternatives using WebTEST (Web-services Toxicity Estimation Software Tool)(Bled Slovenia)

EPA Science Inventory

A Java-based web service is being developed within the US EPA’s Chemistry Dashboard to provide real time estimates of toxicity values and physical properties. WebTEST can generate toxicity predictions directly from a simple URL which includes the endpoint, QSAR method, and ...

Performance of the dipstick screening test as a predictor of negative urine culture.

PubMed

Marques, Alexandre Gimenes; Doi, André Mario; Pasternak, Jacyr; Damascena, Márcio Dos Santos; França, Carolina Nunes; Martino, Marinês Dalla Valle

2017-01-01

To investigate whether the urine dipstick screening test can be used to predict urine culture results. A retrospective study conducted between January and December 2014 based on data from 8,587 patients with a medical order for urine dipstick test, urine sediment analysis and urine culture. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were determined and ROC curve analysis was performed. The percentage of positive cultures was 17.5%. Nitrite had 28% sensitivity and 99% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 89% and 87%, respectively. Leukocyte esterase had 79% sensitivity and 84% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 51% and 95%, respectively. The combination of positive nitrite or positive leukocyte esterase tests had 85% sensitivity and 84% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 53% and 96%, respectively. Positive urinary sediment (more than ten leukocytes per microliter) had 92% sensitivity and 71% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 40% and 98%, respectively. The combination of nitrite positive test and positive urinary sediment had 82% sensitivity and 99% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 91% and 98%, respectively. The combination of nitrite or leukocyte esterase positive tests and positive urinary sediment had the highest sensitivity (94%) and specificity (84%), with positive and negative predictive values of 58% and 99%, respectively. Based on ROC curve analysis, the best indicator of positive urine culture was the combination of positives leukocyte esterase or nitrite tests and positive urinary sediment, followed by positives leukocyte and nitrite tests, positive urinary sediment alone, positive leukocyte esterase test alone, positive nitrite test alone and finally association of positives nitrite and urinary sediment (AUC: 0.845, 0.844, 0.817, 0.814, 0.635 and 0.626, respectively). A negative urine culture can be predicted by negative dipstick test results. Therefore, this test may be a reliable predictor of negative urine culture. Verificar se a triagem de urina por fitas reativas é capaz de predizer a cultura de urina. Métodos Estudo retrospectivo realizado entre janeiro e dezembro de 2014 com 8.587 pacientes, com solicitação médica de triagem de urina (fita), sedimento urinário e cultura de urina. sensibilidade, especificidade, valor preditivo positivo, valor preditivo negativo e curva ROC. Foram positivas 17,5% das culturas. O nitrito apresentou sensibilidade de 28% e especificidade de 99%. O valor preditivo positivo foi de 89% e o valor preditivo negativo de 87%. Esterase apresentou sensibilidade de 79% e especificidade de 84%. Valor preditivo positivo e valor preditivo negativo foram de 51% e 95%, respectivamente. A combinação de nitrito ou esterase positivos apresentou sensibilidade de 85% e especificidade de 84%. Valor preditivo positivo e valor preditivo negativo foram, respectivamente, 53% e 96%. O sedimento positivo (mais de dez leucócitos por microlitro) apresentou sensibilidade de 92% e especificidade de 71%. O valor preditivo positivo foi 40% e o negativo, 98%. A combinação de nitrito e sedimento urinário positivos apresentou sensibilidade de 82% e especificidade de 99%. Os valores preditivos positivo e negativo foram 91% e 98%, respectivamente. Para o nitrito ou esterase positivos mais os leucócitos positivos, a sensibilidade foi de 94% e a especificidade de 84%. O valor preditivo positivo foi de 58% e o negativo foi de 99%. Com base na curva ROC, o melhor indicador de urocultura positiva foi a associação entre a esterase ou nitrito positivos na fita mais os leucócitos positivos no sedimento, seguido por nitrito e esterase positivos, sedimento urinário positivo isolado, esterase positiva isolada, nitrito positivo isolado e, finalmente, pela associação entre nitrito e sedimento urinário positivos (AUC: 0,845, 0,844, 0,817, 0,814, 0,635 e 0,626, respectivamente). Uma urocultura negativa pode ser prevista com resultados negativos na fita. Portanto, este teste pode ser um preditor confiável de urocultura negativa.

Saving two birds with one stone: using active substance avian acute toxicity data to predict formulated plant protection product toxicity.

PubMed

Maynard, Samuel K; Edwards, Peter; Wheeler, James R

2014-07-01

Environmental safety assessments for exposure of birds require the provision of acute avian toxicity data for both the pesticidal active substance and formulated products. As an example, testing on the formulated product is waived in Europe using an assessment of data for the constituent active substance(s). This is often not the case globally, because some countries require acute toxicity tests with every formulated product, thereby triggering animal welfare concerns through unnecessary testing. A database of 383 formulated products was compiled from acute toxicity studies conducted with northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) or Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) (unpublished regulatory literature). Of the 383 formulated products studied, 159 contained only active substances considered functionally nontoxic (median lethal dose [LD50] > highest dose tested). Of these, 97% had formulated product LD50 values of >2000 mg formulated product/kg (limit dose), indicating that no new information was obtained in the formulated product study. Furthermore, defined (point estimated) LD50 values for formulated products were compared with LD50 values predicted from toxicity of the active substance(s). This demonstrated that predicted LD50 values were within 2-fold and 5-fold of the measured formulated product LD50 values in 90% and 98% of cases, respectively. This analysis demonstrates that avian acute toxicity testing of formulated products is largely unnecessary and should not be routinely required to assess avian acute toxicity. In particular, when active substances are known to be functionally nontoxic, further formulated product testing adds no further information and unnecessarily increases bird usage in testing. A further analysis highlights the fact that significant reductions (61% in this dataset) could be achieved by using a sequential testing design (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development test guideline 223), as opposed to established single-stage designs. © 2014 The Authors.

Medial Orbitofrontal Neurons Preferentially Signal Cues Predicting Changes in Reward during Unblocking

PubMed Central

Lopatina, Nina; McDannald, Michael A.; Styer, Clay V.; Peterson, Jacob F.; Sadacca, Brian F.; Cheer, Joseph F.

2016-01-01

The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) has been broadly implicated in the ability to use the current value of expected outcomes to guide behavior. Although value correlates have been prominently reported in lateral OFC, they are more often associated with more medial areas. Further, recent studies in primates have suggested a dissociation in which the lateral OFC is involved in credit assignment and representation of reward identity and more medial areas are critical to representing value. Previously, we used unblocking to test more specifically what information about outcomes is represented by OFC neurons in rats; consistent with the proposed dichotomy between the lateral and medial OFC, we found relatively little linear value coding in the lateral OFC (Lopatina et al., 2015). Here we have repeated this experiment, recording in the medial OFC, to test whether such value signals might be found there. Neurons were recorded in an unblocking task as rats learned about cues that signaled either more, less, or the same amount of reward. We found that medial OFC neurons acquired responses to these cues; however, these responses did not signal different reward values across cues. Surprisingly, we found that cells developed responses to cues predicting a change, particularly a decrease, in reward value. This is consistent with a special role for medial OFC in representing current value to support devaluation/revaluation sensitive changes in behavior. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT This study uniquely examines encoding in rodent mOFC at the single-unit level in response to cues that predict more, less, or no change in reward in rats during training in a Pavlovian unblocking task, finding more cells responding to change-predictive cues and stronger activity in response to cues predictive of less reward. PMID:27511013

A population-based survey in Australia of men's and women's perceptions of genetic risk and predictive genetic testing and implications for primary care.

PubMed

Taylor, S

2011-01-01

Community attitudes research regarding genetic issues is important when contemplating the potential value and utilisation of predictive testing for common diseases in mainstream health services. This article aims to report population-based attitudes and discuss their relevance to integrating genetic services in primary health contexts. Men's and women's attitudes were investigated via population-based omnibus telephone survey in Queensland, Australia. Randomly selected adults (n = 1,230) with a mean age of 48.8 years were interviewed regarding perceptions of genetic determinants of health; benefits of genetic testing that predict 'certain' versus 'probable' future illness; and concern, if any, regarding potential misuse of genetic test information. Most (75%) respondents believed genetic factors significantly influenced health status; 85% regarded genetic testing positively although attitudes varied with age. Risk-based information was less valued than certainty-based information, but women valued risk information significantly more highly than men. Respondents reported 'concern' (44%) and 'no concern' (47%) regarding potential misuse of genetic information. This study contributes important population-based data as most research has involved selected individuals closely impacted by genetic disorders. While community attitudes were positive regarding genetic testing, genetic literacy is important to establish. The nature of gender differences regarding risk perception merits further study and has policy and service implications. Community concern about potential genetic discrimination must be addressed if health benefits of testing are to be maximised. Larger questions remain in scientific, policy, service delivery, and professional practice domains before predictive testing for common disorders is efficacious in mainstream health care. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

The meaning of diagnostic test results: a spreadsheet for swift data analysis.

PubMed

Maceneaney, P M; Malone, D E

2000-03-01

To design a spreadsheet program to: (a) analyse rapidly diagnostic test result data produced in local research or reported in the literature; (b) correct reported predictive values for disease prevalence in any population; (c) estimate the post-test probability of disease in individual patients. Microsoft Excel(TM)was used. Section A: a contingency (2 x 2) table was incorporated into the spreadsheet. Formulae for standard calculations [sample size, disease prevalence, sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence intervals, predictive values and likelihood ratios (LRs)] were linked to this table. The results change automatically when the data in the true or false negative and positive cells are changed. Section B: this estimates predictive values in any population, compensating for altered disease prevalence. Sections C-F: Bayes' theorem was incorporated to generate individual post-test probabilities. The spreadsheet generates 95% confidence intervals, LRs and a table and graph of conditional probabilities once the sensitivity and specificity of the test are entered. The latter shows the expected post-test probability of disease for any pre-test probability when a test of known sensitivity and specificity is positive or negative. This spreadsheet can be used on desktop and palmtop computers. The MS Excel(TM)version can be downloaded via the Internet from the URL ftp://radiography.com/pub/Rad-data99.xls A spreadsheet is useful for contingency table data analysis and assessment of the clinical meaning of diagnostic test results. Copyright 2000 The Royal College of Radiologists.

What's the agreement between self-reported and biochemical verification of drug use? A look at permanent supportive housing residents.

PubMed

Rendon, Alexis; Livingston, Melvin; Suzuki, Sumihiro; Hill, Whitney; Walters, Scott

2017-07-01

Self-reported substance use is commonly used as an outcome measure in treatment research. We evaluated the validity of self-reported drug use in a sample of 334 adults with mental health problems who were residing in supportive housing programs. The primary analysis was the calculation of the positive predictive values (PPVs) of self-report compared to an oral fluid test taken at the same time. A sensitivity analysis compared the positive predictive values of two self-reported drug use histories: biological testing window (ranging between the past 96h to 30days depending on drug type) or the full past 90-day comparison window (maximum length recorded during interview). A multivariable logistic regression was used to predict discordance between self-report and the drug test for users. Self-reported drug use and oral fluid drug tests were compared to determine the positive predictive value for amphetamines/methamphetamines/PCP (47.1% agreement), cocaine (43.8% agreement), and marijuana (69.7% agreement) drug tests. Participants who misreported their drug use were more likely to be older, non-White, have no medical insurance, and not report any alcohol use. In general, amphetamine/methamphetamine/PCP and cocaine use was adequately captured by the biological test, while marijuana use was best captured by a combination of self-report and biological data. Using the full past 90day comparison window resulted in higher concordance with the oral fluid drug test, indicating that self-reported drug use in the past 90days may be a proxy for drug use within the biological testing window. Self-report has some disadvantages when used as the sole measure of drug use in this population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can urine dipstick predict an elevated serum creatinine?

PubMed

Shah, Kaushal; Kilian, Barbara; Hsieh, Wei-Jen; Kyrillou, Emily; Hedge, Vishal; Newman, David H

2010-06-01

Chart review studies have suggested that point-of-care urine dipstick testing may accurately predict an elevation in serum creatinine (Cr). We aimed to prospectively evaluate the test characteristics of proteinuria/hematuria in predicting elevated serum Cr. A prospective, observational study was conducted between March 2007 and June 2008 at 2 affiliated, urban hospitals with an annual emergency department census of 150,000. Patients undergoing laboratory urinalysis, point-of-care urine dipstick, and a serum chemistry panel were enrolled. Trained research assistants collected data on consecutive patients 18 hours per day using preformatted data forms and entry into an anonymized Access (Microsoft, Seattle, Wash) database. Demographic baseline variables including age, sex, chief complaint, vital signs, and source of sample (catheter vs "clean catch") were also collected. An elevated Cr level was defined as greater than 1.3 based on the laboratory reference range. Standard statistical methods were used to calculate diagnostic test operating characteristics of proteinuria or hematuria as a predictor of elevated serum Cr. Five thousand four hundred sixteen subjects were enrolled with 28.3% male and a mean age of 50.2 years. Elevated serum Cr greater than 1.3 mg/dL was found in 13.9% (755/5416) of subjects. The sensitivity of either proteinuria or hematuria for elevated Cr was 82.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 80%-85%) and specificity was 34.4% (95% CI, 33%-36%). Positive predictive value was 16.9% (95% CI, 16%-18%) and negative predictive value was 92.4% (95% CI, 91-94%). The likelihood ratio for a positive test was 1.3 (95% CI, 1.1-1.5), and the likelihood ratio for a negative test was 0.5 (95% CI, 0.3-0.8). Although negative predictive value was high, the presence of proteinuria/hematuria was only moderately predictive of elevated serum Cr level. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Anti-signal recognition particle autoantibody ELISA validation and clinical associations.

PubMed

Aggarwal, Rohit; Oddis, Chester V; Goudeau, Danielle; Fertig, Noreen; Metes, Ilinca; Stephens, Chad; Qi, Zengbiao; Koontz, Diane; Levesque, Marc C

2015-07-01

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a quantitative anti-signal recognition particle (SRP) autoantibody serum ELISA in patients with myositis and longitudinal association with myositis disease activity. We developed a serum ELISA using recombinant purified full-length human SRP coated on ELISA plates and a secondary antibody that bound human IgG to detect anti-SRP binding. Protein immunoprecipitation was used as the gold standard for the presence of anti-SRP. Serum samples from three groups were analysed: SRP(+) myositis subjects by immunoprecipitation, SRP(-) myositis subjects by immunoprecipitation and non-myositis controls. The ELISA's sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were evaluated. Percentage agreement and test-retest reliability were assessed. Serial samples from seven SRP immunoprecipitation-positive subjects were also tested, along with serum muscle enzymes and manual muscle testing. Using immunoprecipitation, we identified 26 SRP(+) myositis patients and 77 SRP(-) controls (including 38 patients with necrotizing myopathy). Non-myositis control patients included SLE (n = 4) and SSc (n = 7) patients. Anti-SRP positivity by ELISA showed strong agreement (97.1%) with immunoprecipitation (κ = 0.94). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the anti-SRP ELISA were 88, 100, 100 and 96, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.94, and test-retest reliability was strong (r = 0.91, P < 0.001). Serial samples showed that anti-SRP levels paralleled changes in muscle enzymes and manual muscle testing. We developed a quantitative ELISA for detecting serum anti-SRP autoantibodies and validated the assay in myositis. Longitudinal assessment of SRP levels by ELISA may be a useful biomarker for disease activity. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Factors affecting the transformation of a pyritic tailing: scaled-up column tests.

PubMed

García, C; Ballester, A; González, F; Blázquez, M L

2005-02-14

Two different methods for predicting the quality of the water draining from a pyritic tailing are compared; for this, a static test (ABA test) and a kinetic test in large columns were chosen. The different results obtained in the two experimental set-ups show the necessity of being careful in selecting both the adequate predictive method and the conclusions and extrapolations derived from them. The tailing chosen for the weathering tests (previously tested in shake flasks and in small weathering columns) was a pyritic residue produced in a flotation plant of complex polymetallic sulphides (Huelva, Spain). The ABA test was a modification of the conventional ABA test reported in bibliography. The modification consisted in the soft conditions employed in the digestion phase. For column tests, two identical methacrylate columns (150 cm high and 15 cm diameter) were used to study the chemical and microbiological processes controlling the leaching of pyrite. The results obtained in the two tests were very different. The static test predicted a strong potential acidity for the tailing. On the contrary, pH value in the effluents draining from the columns reached values of only 5 units, being the concentration of metals (<600 mg/L) and sulphate ions (<17,000 mg/L) very small and far from the values of a typical acid mine drainage. In consequence, the static test may oversize the potential acidity of the tailing; whereas large columns may be saturated in water, displacing the oxygen and inhibiting the microbial activity necessary to catalyse mineral oxidation.

22 Years of predictive testing for Huntington's disease: the experience of the UK Huntington's Prediction Consortium

PubMed Central

Baig, Sheharyar S; Strong, Mark; Rosser, Elisabeth; Taverner, Nicola V; Glew, Ruth; Miedzybrodzka, Zosia; Clarke, Angus; Craufurd, David; Quarrell, Oliver W

2016-01-01

Huntington's disease (HD) is a progressive neurodegenerative condition. At-risk individuals have accessed predictive testing via direct mutation testing since 1993. The UK Huntington's Prediction Consortium has collected anonymised data on UK predictive tests, annually, from 1993 to 2014: 9407 predictive tests were performed across 23 UK centres. Where gender was recorded, 4077 participants were male (44.3%) and 5122 were female (55.7%). The median age of participants was 37 years. The most common reason for predictive testing was to reduce uncertainty (70.5%). Of the 8441 predictive tests on individuals at 50% prior risk, 4629 (54.8%) were reported as mutation negative and 3790 (44.9%) were mutation positive, with 22 (0.3%) in the database being uninterpretable. Using a prevalence figure of 12.3 × 10−5, the cumulative uptake of predictive testing in the 50% at-risk UK population from 1994 to 2014 was estimated at 17.4% (95% CI: 16.9–18.0%). We present the largest study conducted on predictive testing in HD. Our findings indicate that the vast majority of individuals at risk of HD (>80%) have not undergone predictive testing. Future therapies in HD will likely target presymptomatic individuals; therefore, identifying the at-risk population whose gene status is unknown is of significant public health value. PMID:27165004

Anatomic features of the neck as predictive markers of difficult direct laryngoscopy in men and women: A prospective study

PubMed Central

Chara, Liaskou; Eleftherios, Vouzounerakis; Maria, Moirasgenti; Anastasia, Trikoupi; Chryssoula, Staikou

2014-01-01

Background and Aims: Difficult airway assessment is based on various anatomic parameters of upper airway, much of it being concentrated on oral cavity and the pharyngeal structures. The diagnostic value of tests based on neck anatomy in predicting difficult laryngoscopy was assessed in this prospective, open cohort study. Methods: We studied 341 adult patients scheduled to receive general anaesthesia. Thyromental distance (TMD), sternomental distance (STMD), ratio of height to thyromental distance (RHTMD) and neck circumference (NC) were measured pre-operatively. The laryngoscopic view was classified according to the Cormack–Lehane Grade (1-4). Difficult laryngoscopy was defined as Cormack–Lehane Grade 3 or 4. The optimal cut-off points for each variable were identified by using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated for each test. Multivariate analysis with logistic regression, including all variables, was used to create a predictive model. Comparisons between genders were also performed. Results: Laryngoscopy was difficult in 12.6% of the patients. The cut-off values were: TMD ≤7 cm, STMD ≤15 cm, RHTMD >18.4 and NC >37.5 cm. The RHTMD had the highest sensitivity (88.4%) and NPV (95.2%), while TMD had the highest specificity (83.9%). The area under curve (AUC) for the TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC was 0.63, 0.64, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively. The predictive model exhibited a higher and statistically significant diagnostic accuracy (AUC: 0.68, P < 0.001). Gender-specific cut-off points improved the predictive accuracy of NC in women (AUC: 0.65). Conclusions: The TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC were found to be poor single predictors of difficult laryngoscopy, while a model including all four variables had a significant predictive accuracy. Among the studied tests, gender-specific cut-off points should be used for NC. PMID:24963183

Anatomic features of the neck as predictive markers of difficult direct laryngoscopy in men and women: A prospective study.

PubMed

Liaskou, Chara; Chara, Liaskou; Vouzounerakis, Eleftherios; Eleftherios, Vouzounerakis; Moirasgenti, Maria; Maria, Moirasgenti; Trikoupi, Anastasia; Anastasia, Trikoupi; Staikou, Chryssoula; Chryssoula, Staikou

2014-03-01

Difficult airway assessment is based on various anatomic parameters of upper airway, much of it being concentrated on oral cavity and the pharyngeal structures. The diagnostic value of tests based on neck anatomy in predicting difficult laryngoscopy was assessed in this prospective, open cohort study. We studied 341 adult patients scheduled to receive general anaesthesia. Thyromental distance (TMD), sternomental distance (STMD), ratio of height to thyromental distance (RHTMD) and neck circumference (NC) were measured pre-operatively. The laryngoscopic view was classified according to the Cormack-Lehane Grade (1-4). Difficult laryngoscopy was defined as Cormack-Lehane Grade 3 or 4. The optimal cut-off points for each variable were identified by using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated for each test. Multivariate analysis with logistic regression, including all variables, was used to create a predictive model. Comparisons between genders were also performed. Laryngoscopy was difficult in 12.6% of the patients. The cut-off values were: TMD ≤7 cm, STMD ≤15 cm, RHTMD >18.4 and NC >37.5 cm. The RHTMD had the highest sensitivity (88.4%) and NPV (95.2%), while TMD had the highest specificity (83.9%). The area under curve (AUC) for the TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC was 0.63, 0.64, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively. The predictive model exhibited a higher and statistically significant diagnostic accuracy (AUC: 0.68, P < 0.001). Gender-specific cut-off points improved the predictive accuracy of NC in women (AUC: 0.65). The TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC were found to be poor single predictors of difficult laryngoscopy, while a model including all four variables had a significant predictive accuracy. Among the studied tests, gender-specific cut-off points should be used for NC.

Value of a negative aeroallergen skin-prick test result in the diagnosis of asthma in young adults: correlative study with methacholine challenge testing.

PubMed

Graif, Yael; Yigla, Mordechai; Tov, Naveh; Kramer, Mordechai R

2002-09-01

None of the existing tests for the diagnosis of asthma are considered to be definitive. Certain circumstances require prompt diagnosis, and a test able to predict the absence of asthma would be very useful. To evaluate the contribution of a skin-prick test (SPT) to the diagnostic workup of subjects with suspected asthma. The study included three groups of subjects aged 18 to 24 years: group A, asthmatic patients (n = 175); group B, control subjects (n = 100); and group C, subjects with suspected asthma (n = 150) with normal spirometry findings and a negative exercise challenge test result. All underwent an SPT to a battery of common aeroallergens, and group C underwent a methacholine challenge test (MCT) in addition. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive values (NPV) of the SPT were calculated using provocative concentrations of methacholine causing a 20% fall in FEV(1) (PC(20)) of < 4 mg/mL and < 8 mg/mL as diagnostic cutoff values for asthma in the MCT. Bayes' formula was used to determine posttest probabilities of having asthma, both for positive and negative SPT results. A positive SPT result to at least one allergen was found in 95.5%, 54%, and 69% of patients in the three groups, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and NPV of the SPT were 90.7%, 52.0%, and 84.8%, respectively, with a cutoff value of PC(20) < 8 mg/mL. The lower cutoff, PC(20) < 4 mg/mL, increased the sensitivity and NPV to 98.2% and 97.8%, respectively. A negative SPT result decreased the probability of having asthma by 10-fold to 20-fold in subjects whose pretest probability was low to moderate. Incorporating an SPT into the workup of subjects with suspected asthma can reduce the cost of this process significantly. The SPT may be used as a simple, fast, safe, inexpensive, and reliable method to predict the absence of asthma in young adults.

Evaluation of a fecal immunochemistry test prior to colonoscopy for outpatients with various indications.

PubMed

Szilagyi, Andrew; Xue, Xiaoqing

2017-01-01

Stool tests can predict advanced neoplasms prior to colonoscopy. Results of immunochemical stool tests to predict findings at colonoscopy for various indications are less often reported. We compared pre-colonoscopy stool tests with findings in patients undergoing colonoscopy for different indications. Charts of patients undergoing elective or semi-urgent colonoscopy were reviewed. Comparison of adenoma detection rates and pathological findings was made between prescreened and non-prescreened, and between stool-positive and stool-negative cases. Demographics, quality of colonoscopy, and pathological findings were recorded. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were assessed. Statistical significance was accepted at p ≤0.05. Charts of 325 patients were reviewed. Among them, stool tests were done on 144 patients: 114 were negative and 30 were positive. Findings were similar in the pretest and non-pretest groups. Detection of advanced adenomas per patient was higher in the stool-positive group compared to the stool-negative group (23.4% vs 3.5%, p =0.0016, OR =7.6 [95% CI: 2-29.3]). Five advanced adenomas (without high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma) and several cases of multiple adenomas were missed in the negative group. Sensitivity and specificity for advanced polyps was 63.6% and 82.7%, respectively. The negative predictive value was 96.5%. Male gender was independently predictive of any adenoma. The stool immunochemical test best predicted advanced neoplasms and had a high negative predictive value in this small cohort. Whether this test can be applied to determine the need for colonoscopy in groups other than average risk would require more studies.

Sensitivity and Specificity of Histoplasma Antigen Detection by Enzyme Immunoassay.

PubMed

Cunningham, Lauren; Cook, Audrey; Hanzlicek, Andrew; Harkin, Kenneth; Wheat, Joseph; Goad, Carla; Kirsch, Emily

2015-01-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of an antigen enzyme immunoassay (EIA) on urine samples for the diagnosis of histoplasmosis in dogs. This retrospective medical records review included canine cases with urine samples submitted for Histoplasma EIA antigen assay between 2007 and 2011 from three veterinary institutions. Cases for which urine samples were submitted for Histoplasma antigen testing were reviewed and compared to the gold standard of finding Histoplasma organisms or an alternative diagnosis on cytology or histopathology. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value, and the kappa coefficient and associated confidence interval were calculated for the EIA-based Histoplasma antigen assay. Sixty cases met the inclusion criteria. Seventeen cases were considered true positives based on identification of the organism, and 41 cases were considered true negatives with an alternative definitive diagnosis. Two cases were considered false negatives, and there were no false positives. Sensitivity was 89.47% and the negative predictive value was 95.35%. Specificity and the positive predictive value were both 100%. The kappa coefficient was 0.9207 (95% confidence interval, 0.8131-1). The Histoplasma antigen EIA test demonstrated high specificity and sensitivity for the diagnosis of histoplasmosis in dogs.

Cost-effectiveness of serotesting compared with universal immunization for varicella in refugee children from six geographic regions.

PubMed

Figueira, Marisol; Christiansen, Demian; Barnett, Elizabeth D

2003-01-01

It is unknown whether it is more cost-effective to test for varicella antibody or to immunize without testing in immigrant populations. The reliability of history of varicella disease is also unclear. The prevalences of varicella antibody in immigrant children from six regions of the world were used in a cost-effectiveness model to calculate the antibody prevalence above which it is more cost-effective to test rather than to immunize. History of varicella disease was obtained from chart review. We calculated the positive and negative predictive values of varicella history by age group and region. The prevalence of varicella antibody above which it is more cost-effective to test than to immunize was 34% for children less than 13 years old and 17% for those aged 13 years and older. Overall, the positive predictive value of varicella history was 93-100% and the negative predictive value of varicella history was 28-66% among the six geographic regions. Immunization without serotesting was cost-effective in children <5 years of age. Testing prior to immunization was cost-effective in children 5 years of age and older. History of varicella was a good predictor of the presence of antibody to varicella, whereas a negative history was a poor predictor of the absence of antibody to varicella.

Validating proposed migration equation and parameters' values as a tool to reproduce and predict 137Cs vertical migration activity in Spanish soils.

PubMed

Olondo, C; Legarda, F; Herranz, M; Idoeta, R

2017-04-01

This paper shows the procedure performed to validate the migration equation and the migration parameters' values presented in a previous paper (Legarda et al., 2011) regarding the migration of 137 Cs in Spanish mainland soils. In this paper, this model validation has been carried out checking experimentally obtained activity concentration values against those predicted by the model. This experimental data come from the measured vertical activity profiles of 8 new sampling points which are located in northern Spain. Before testing predicted values of the model, the uncertainty of those values has been assessed with the appropriate uncertainty analysis. Once establishing the uncertainty of the model, both activity concentration values, experimental versus model predicted ones, have been compared. Model validation has been performed analyzing its accuracy, studying it as a whole and also at different depth intervals. As a result, this model has been validated as a tool to predict 137 Cs behaviour in a Mediterranean environment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Isomorphic red blood cells using automated urine flow cytometry is a reliable method in diagnosis of bladder cancer.

PubMed

Muto, Satoru; Sugiura, Syo-Ichiro; Nakajima, Akiko; Horiuchi, Akira; Inoue, Masahiro; Saito, Keisuke; Isotani, Shuji; Yamaguchi, Raizo; Ide, Hisamitsu; Horie, Shigeo

2014-10-01

We aimed to identify patients with a chief complaint of hematuria who could safely avoid unnecessary radiation and instrumentation in the diagnosis of bladder cancer (BC), using automated urine flow cytometry to detect isomorphic red blood cells (RBCs) in urine. We acquired urine samples from 134 patients over the age of 35 years with a chief complaint of hematuria and a positive urine occult blood test or microhematuria. The data were analyzed using the UF-1000i (®) (Sysmex Co., Ltd., Kobe, Japan) automated urine flow cytometer to determine RBC morphology, which was classified as isomorphic or dysmorphic. The patients were divided into two groups (BC versus non-BC) for statistical analysis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictive value of flow cytometry versus urine cytology, the bladder tumor antigen test, occult blood in urine test, and microhematuria test. BC was confirmed in 26 of 134 patients (19.4 %). The area under the curve for RBC count using the automated urine flow cytometer was 0.94, representing the highest reference value obtained in this study. Isomorphic RBCs were detected in all patients in the BC group. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, only isomorphic RBC morphology was significantly predictive for BC (p < 0.001). Analytical parameters such as sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of isomorphic RBCs in urine were 100.0, 91.7, 74.3, and 100.0 %, respectively. Detection of urinary isomorphic RBCs using automated urine flow cytometry is a reliable method in the diagnosis of BC with hematuria.

The Theory of Planned Behavior as a Predictor of HIV Testing Intention.

PubMed

Ayodele, Olabode

2017-03-01

This investigation tests the theory of planned behavior (TPB) as a predictor of HIV testing intention among Nigerian university undergraduate students. A cross-sectional study of 392 students was conducted using a self-administered structured questionnaire that measured socio-demographics, perceived risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, and TPB constructs. Analysis was based on 273 students who had never been tested for HIV. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis assessed the applicability of the TPB in predicting HIV testing intention and additional predictive value of perceived risk of HIV infection. The prediction model containing TPB constructs explained 35% of the variance in HIV testing intention, with attitude and perceived behavioral control making significant and unique contributions to intention. Perceived risk of HIV infection contributed marginally (2%) but significantly to the final prediction model. Findings supported the TPB in predicting HIV testing intention. Although future studies must determine the generalizability of these results, the findings highlight the importance of perceived behavioral control, attitude, and perceived risk of HIV infection in the prediction of HIV testing intention among students who have not previously tested for HIV.

Very-short-term wind power prediction by a hybrid model with single- and multi-step approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

Very-short-term wind power prediction (VSTWPP) has played an essential role for the operation of electric power systems. This paper aims at improving and applying a hybrid method of VSTWPP based on historical data. The hybrid method is combined by multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), which is intended for reducing prediction errors. The predicted values are obtained through two sub-processes:1) transform the time-series data of actual wind power into the power ratio, and then predict the power ratio;2) use the predicted power ratio to predict the wind power. Besides, the proposed method can include two prediction approaches: single-step prediction (SSP) and multi-step prediction (MSP). WPP is tested comparatively by auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model from the predicted values and errors. The validity of the proposed hybrid method is confirmed in terms of error analysis by using probability density function (PDF), mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and means square error (MSE). Meanwhile, comparison of the correlation coefficients between the actual values and the predicted values for different prediction times and window has confirmed that MSP approach by using the hybrid model is the most accurate while comparing to SSP approach and ARMA. The MLR&LS is accurate and promising for solving problems in WPP.

Experimental evaluation of a recursive model identification technique for type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Finan, Daniel A; Doyle, Francis J; Palerm, Cesar C; Bevier, Wendy C; Zisser, Howard C; Jovanovic, Lois; Seborg, Dale E

2009-09-01

A model-based controller for an artificial beta cell requires an accurate model of the glucose-insulin dynamics in type 1 diabetes subjects. To ensure the robustness of the controller for changing conditions (e.g., changes in insulin sensitivity due to illnesses, changes in exercise habits, or changes in stress levels), the model should be able to adapt to the new conditions by means of a recursive parameter estimation technique. Such an adaptive strategy will ensure that the most accurate model is used for the current conditions, and thus the most accurate model predictions are used in model-based control calculations. In a retrospective analysis, empirical dynamic autoregressive exogenous input (ARX) models were identified from glucose-insulin data for nine type 1 diabetes subjects in ambulatory conditions. Data sets consisted of continuous (5-minute) glucose concentration measurements obtained from a continuous glucose monitor, basal insulin infusion rates and times and amounts of insulin boluses obtained from the subjects' insulin pumps, and subject-reported estimates of the times and carbohydrate content of meals. Two identification techniques were investigated: nonrecursive, or batch methods, and recursive methods. Batch models were identified from a set of training data, whereas recursively identified models were updated at each sampling instant. Both types of models were used to make predictions of new test data. For the purpose of comparison, model predictions were compared to zero-order hold (ZOH) predictions, which were made by simply holding the current glucose value constant for p steps into the future, where p is the prediction horizon. Thus, the ZOH predictions are model free and provide a base case for the prediction metrics used to quantify the accuracy of the model predictions. In theory, recursive identification techniques are needed only when there are changing conditions in the subject that require model adaptation. Thus, the identification and validation techniques were performed with both "normal" data and data collected during conditions of reduced insulin sensitivity. The latter were achieved by having the subjects self-administer a medication, prednisone, for 3 consecutive days. The recursive models were allowed to adapt to this condition of reduced insulin sensitivity, while the batch models were only identified from normal data. Data from nine type 1 diabetes subjects in ambulatory conditions were analyzed; six of these subjects also participated in the prednisone portion of the study. For normal test data, the batch ARX models produced 30-, 45-, and 60-minute-ahead predictions that had average root mean square error (RMSE) values of 26, 34, and 40 mg/dl, respectively. For test data characterized by reduced insulin sensitivity, the batch ARX models produced 30-, 60-, and 90-minute-ahead predictions with average RMSE values of 27, 46, and 59 mg/dl, respectively; the recursive ARX models demonstrated similar performance with corresponding values of 27, 45, and 61 mg/dl, respectively. The identified ARX models (batch and recursive) produced more accurate predictions than the model-free ZOH predictions, but only marginally. For test data characterized by reduced insulin sensitivity, RMSE values for the predictions of the batch ARX models were 9, 5, and 5% more accurate than the ZOH predictions for prediction horizons of 30, 60, and 90 minutes, respectively. In terms of RMSE values, the 30-, 60-, and 90-minute predictions of the recursive models were more accurate than the ZOH predictions, by 10, 5, and 2%, respectively. In this experimental study, the recursively identified ARX models resulted in predictions of test data that were similar, but not superior, to the batch models. Even for the test data characteristic of reduced insulin sensitivity, the batch and recursive models demonstrated similar prediction accuracy. The predictions of the identified ARX models were only marginally more accurate than the model-free ZOH predictions. Given the simplicity of the ARX models and the computational ease with which they are identified, however, even modest improvements may justify the use of these models in a model-based controller for an artificial beta cell. 2009 Diabetes Technology Society.

Validity of electromyographic fatigue threshold as a noninvasive method for tracking changes in ventilatory threshold in college-aged men.

PubMed

Kendall, Kristina L; Smith, Abbie E; Graef, Jennifer L; Walter, Ashley A; Moon, Jordan R; Lockwood, Christopher M; Beck, Travis W; Cramer, Joel T; Stout, Jeffrey R

2010-01-01

The submaximal electromyographic fatigue threshold test (EMG(FT)) has been shown to be highly correlated to ventilatory threshold (VT) as determined from maximal graded exercise tests (GXTs). Recently, a prediction equation was developed using the EMG(FT) value to predict VT. The aim of this study, therefore, was to determine if this new equation could accurately track changes in VT after high-intensity interval training (HIIT). Eighteen recreationally trained men (mean +/- SD; age 22.4 +/- 3.2 years) performed a GXT to determine maximal oxygen consumption rate (V(O2)peak) and VT using breath-by-breath spirometry. Participants also completed a discontinuous incremental cycle ergometer test to determine their EMGFT value. A total of four 2-minute work bouts were completed to obtain 15-second averages of the electromyographic amplitude. The resulting slopes from each successive work bout were used to calculate EMG(FT). The EMG(FT) value from each participant was used to estimate VT from the recently developed equation. All participants trained 3 days a week for 6 weeks. Training consisted of 5 sets of 2-minute work bouts with 1 minute of rest in between. Repeated-measures analysis of variance indicated no significant difference between actual and predicted VT values after 3 weeks of training. However, there was a significant difference between the actual and predicted VT values after 6 weeks of training. These findings suggest that the EMG(FT) may be useful when tracking changes in VT after 3 weeks of HIIT in recreationally trained individuals. However, the use of EMG(FT) to predict VT does not seem to be valid for tracking changes after 6 weeks of HIIT. At this time, it is not recommended that EMG(FT) be used to predict and track changes in VT.

Predictability of Brayton electric power system performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klann, J. L.; Hettel, H. J.

1972-01-01

Data from the first tests of the 2- to 15-kilowatt space power system in a vacuum chamber were compared with predictions of both a pretest analysis and a modified version of that analysis. The pretest analysis predicted test results with differences of no more than 9 percent of the largest measured value for each quantity. The modified analysis correlated measurements. Differences in conversion efficiency and power output were no greater than plus or minus 2.5 percent. This modified analysis was used to project space performance maps for the current test system.

Operational evaluation of a proppeller test stand in the quiet flow facility at Langley Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Block, P. J. W.

1982-01-01

Operational proof tests of a propeller test stand (PTS) in a quiet flow facility (QFF) are presented. The PTS is an experimental test bed for acoustic propeller research in the quiet flow environment of the QFF. These proof tests validate thrust and torque predictions, examine the repeatability of measurements on the PTS, and determine the effect of applying artificial roughness to the propeller blades. Since a thrusting propeller causes an open jet to contract, the potential flow core was surveyed to examine the magnitude of the contraction. These measurements are compared with predicted values. The predictions are used to determine operational limitations for testing a given propeller design in the QFF.

Diagnostic Value of Cerebrospinal Fluid T-SPOT.TB for Tuberculousis Meningitis in China.

PubMed

Li, Xue Lian; Xie, Na; Wang, Song Wang; Wu, Qian Hong; Ma, Yan; Shu, Wei; Chen, Hong Mei; Zhang, Li Qun; Wu, Xiao Guang; Ma, Li Ping; Che, Nan Ying; Gao, Meng Qiu

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic value of the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) T-SPOT.TB test for the diagnosis of TB meningitis (TBM). A retrospective analysis of 96 patients with manifested meningitis was conducted; T-SPOT.TB test was performed for diagnosing TBM to determine the diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was also drawn to assess the diagnostic accuracy. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of CSF T-SPOT.TB test were 97.8%, 78.0%, 80.3%, and 97.5%, respectively, for 52 patients (54.2%) of the 96 enrolled patients. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.910, and the sensitivities of CSF T-SPOT.TB for patients with stages I, II, and III of TBM were 96.7%, 97.2%, and 98.9%, respectively. CSF T-SPOT.TB test is a rapid and accurate diagnostic method with higher sensitivity and specificity for diagnosing TBM. Copyright © 2017 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

Decisions on Further Research for Predictive Biomarkers of High-Dose Alkylating Chemotherapy in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: A Value of Information Analysis.

PubMed

Miquel-Cases, Anna; Retèl, Valesca P; van Harten, Wim H; Steuten, Lotte M G

2016-06-01

To inform decisions about the design and priority of further studies of emerging predictive biomarkers of high-dose alkylating chemotherapy (HDAC) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) using value-of-information analysis. A state transition model compared treating women with TNBC with current clinical practice and four biomarker strategies to personalize HDAC: 1) BRCA1-like profile by array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) testing; 2) BRCA1-like profile by multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) testing; 3) strategy 1 followed by X-inactive specific transcript gene (XIST) and tumor suppressor p53 binding protein (53BP1) testing; and 4) strategy 2 followed by XIST and 53BP1 testing, from a Dutch societal perspective and a 20-year time horizon. Input data came from literature and expert opinions. We assessed the expected value of partial perfect information, the expected value of sample information, and the expected net benefit of sampling for potential ancillary studies of an ongoing randomized controlled trial (RCT; NCT01057069). The expected value of partial perfect information indicated that further research should be prioritized to the parameter group including "biomarkers' prevalence, positive predictive value (PPV), and treatment response rates (TRRs) in biomarker-negative patients and patients with TNBC" (€639 million), followed by utilities (€48 million), costs (€40 million), and transition probabilities (TPs) (€30 million). By setting up four ancillary studies to the ongoing RCT, data on 1) TP and MLPA prevalence, PPV, and TRR; 2) aCGH and aCGH/MLPA plus XIST and 53BP1 prevalence, PPV, and TRR; 3) utilities; and 4) costs could be simultaneously collected (optimal size = 3000). Further research on predictive biomarkers for HDAC should focus on gathering data on TPs, prevalence, PPV, TRRs, utilities, and costs from the four ancillary studies to the ongoing RCT. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Evaluation of serology as a diagnostic method for Helicobacter pylori infection in the local population of Guayaquil].

PubMed

Zapatier, Jorge A; Gómez, Néstor A; Vargas, Paola E; Maya, Susana V

2007-06-01

The infection with Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori), and the diagnostic efficacy of the serologic tests has certain variability among the different geographic regions. The objective of the present work was to find the local validation of serological methods for diagnosis of H. pylori infection and to determine the best cutoff value for the local population. Forty-eight patients were evaluated, 27 males and 21 females, with a mean age of 29.2 years. On each patient, 3 tests for H. pylori diagnosis were performed: IgG serology, IgA serology and histology. We performed IgG and IgA serologic test for H. pylori infection and a histological examination for each patient. Efficacy parameters as well as the ROC curve were obtained for the IgG and IgA serology using histology as the gold standard. The cutoff point with the highest efficacy for IgG serology was 16 U/ml (sensitivity 81%, specificity 65%, positive predictive value 81%, negative predictive value 65%, and accuracy 75%), and for IgA serology was 17 U/ml (sensitivity 61%, specificity 53%, positive predictive value 70%, negative predictive value 43%, and accuracy 58%). The area under the curve was 67.1% (CI 95%: 50 to 84.1) and 54.4% (CI 95%: 38.3 to 72.5) for IgG and IgA respectively. The serology is a valuable tool in our population with high prevalence of H. pylori, especially due to its low cost and easy performance, but a reduction ofthe cutoff value was necessary to obtain more sensibility and a more adequate identification of true positives cases.

Best of both worlds: combining pharma data and state of the art modeling technology to improve in Silico pKa prediction.

PubMed

Fraczkiewicz, Robert; Lobell, Mario; Göller, Andreas H; Krenz, Ursula; Schoenneis, Rolf; Clark, Robert D; Hillisch, Alexander

2015-02-23

In a unique collaboration between a software company and a pharmaceutical company, we were able to develop a new in silico pKa prediction tool with outstanding prediction quality. An existing pKa prediction method from Simulations Plus based on artificial neural network ensembles (ANNE), microstates analysis, and literature data was retrained with a large homogeneous data set of drug-like molecules from Bayer. The new model was thus built with curated sets of ∼14,000 literature pKa values (∼11,000 compounds, representing literature chemical space) and ∼19,500 pKa values experimentally determined at Bayer Pharma (∼16,000 compounds, representing industry chemical space). Model validation was performed with several test sets consisting of a total of ∼31,000 new pKa values measured at Bayer. For the largest and most difficult test set with >16,000 pKa values that were not used for training, the original model achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.72, root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.94, and squared correlation coefficient (R(2)) of 0.87. The new model achieves significantly improved prediction statistics, with MAE = 0.50, RMSE = 0.67, and R(2) = 0.93. It is commercially available as part of the Simulations Plus ADMET Predictor release 7.0. Good predictions are only of value when delivered effectively to those who can use them. The new pKa prediction model has been integrated into Pipeline Pilot and the PharmacophorInformatics (PIx) platform used by scientists at Bayer Pharma. Different output formats allow customized application by medicinal chemists, physical chemists, and computational chemists.

A life prediction methodology for encapsulated solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coulbert, C. D.

1978-01-01

This paper presents an approach to the development of a life prediction methodology for encapsulated solar cells which are intended to operate for twenty years or more in a terrestrial environment. Such a methodology, or solar cell life prediction model, requires the development of quantitative intermediate relationships between local environmental stress parameters and the basic chemical mechanisms of encapsulant aging leading to solar cell failures. The use of accelerated/abbreviated testing to develop these intermediate relationships and in revealing failure modes is discussed. Current field and demonstration tests of solar cell arrays and the present laboratory tests to qualify solar module designs provide very little data applicable to predicting the long-term performance of encapsulated solar cells. An approach to enhancing the value of such field tests to provide data for life prediction is described.

Hydrogen breath test for the diagnosis of lactose intolerance, is the routine sugar load the best one?

PubMed Central

Argnani, Fiorenza; Camillo, Mauro Di; Marinaro, Vanessa; Foglietta, Tiziana; Avallone, Veronica; Cannella, Carlo; Vernia, Piero

2008-01-01

AIM: To evaluate the prevalence of lactose intolerance (LI) following a load of 12.5 g in patients diagnosed as high-grade malabsorbers using the hydrogen breath test (HBT)-25. METHODS: Ninety patients showing high-grade malabsorption at HBT-25 were submitted to a second HBT with a lactose load of 12.5 g. Peak hydrogen production, area under the curve of hydrogen excretion and occurrence of symptoms were recorded. RESULTS: Only 16 patients (17.77%) with positive HBT-25 proved positive at HBT-12.5. Hydrogen production was lower as compared to HBT-25 (peak value 21.55 parts per million (ppm) ± 29.54 SD vs 99.43 ppm ± 40.01 SD; P < 0.001). Symptoms were present in only 13 patients. The absence of symptoms during the high-dose test has a high negative predictive value (0.84) for a negative low-dose test. The presence of symptoms during the first test was not useful for predicting a positive low-dose test (positive predictive value 0.06-0.31). CONCLUSION: Most patients with a positive HBT-25 normally absorb a lower dose of lactose and a strict lactose restriction on the basis of a “standard” HBT is, in most instances, unnecessary. Thus, the 25 g lactose tolerance test should probably be substituted by the 12.5 g test in the diagnosis of LI, and in providing dietary guidelines to patients with suspected lactose malabsorption/intolerance. PMID:18985811

Hydrogen breath test for the diagnosis of lactose intolerance, is the routine sugar load the best one?

PubMed

Argnani, Fiorenza; Di Camillo, Mauro; Marinaro, Vanessa; Foglietta, Tiziana; Avallone, Veronica; Cannella, Carlo; Vernia, Piero

2008-10-28

To evaluate the prevalence of lactose intolerance (LI) following a load of 12.5 g in patients diagnosed as high-grade malabsorbers using the hydrogen breath test (HBT)-25. Ninety patients showing high-grade malabsorption at HBT-25 were submitted to a second HBT with a lactose load of 12.5 g. Peak hydrogen production, area under the curve of hydrogen excretion and occurrence of symptoms were recorded. Only 16 patients (17.77%) with positive HBT-25 proved positive at HBT-12.5. Hydrogen production was lower as compared to HBT-25 (peak value 21.55 parts per million (ppm) +/- 29.54 SD vs 99.43 ppm +/- 40.01 SD; P < 0.001). Symptoms were present in only 13 patients. The absence of symptoms during the high-dose test has a high negative predictive value (0.84) for a negative low-dose test. The presence of symptoms during the first test was not useful for predicting a positive low-dose test (positive predictive value 0.06-0.31). Most patients with a positive HBT-25 normally absorb a lower dose of lactose and a strict lactose restriction on the basis of a "standard" HBT is, in most instances, unnecessary. Thus, the 25 g lactose tolerance test should probably be substituted by the 12.5 g test in the diagnosis of LI, and in providing dietary guidelines to patients with suspected lactose malabsorption/intolerance.

Comparisons of AEROX computer program predictions of lift and induced drag with flight test data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Axelson, J.; Hill, G. C.

1981-01-01

The AEROX aerodynamic computer program which provides accurate predictions of induced drag and trim drag for the full angle of attack range and for Mach numbers from 0.4 to 3.0 is described. This capability is demonstrated comparing flight test data and AEROX predictions for 17 different tactical aircraft. Values of minimum (skin friction, pressure, and zero lift wave) drag coefficients and lift coefficient offset due to camber (when required) were input from the flight test data to produce total lift and drag curves. The comparisons of trimmed lift drag polars show excellent agreement between the AEROX predictions and the in flight measurements.

Diagnostic value of clinical tests for degenerative rotator cuff disease in medical practice.

PubMed

Lasbleiz, S; Quintero, N; Ea, K; Petrover, D; Aout, M; Laredo, J D; Vicaut, E; Bardin, T; Orcel, P; Beaudreuil, J

2014-06-01

To assess the diagnostic value of clinical tests for degenerative rotator cuff disease (DRCD) in medical practice. Patients with DRCD were prospectively included. Eleven clinical tests of the rotator cuff have been done. One radiologist performed ultrasonography (US) of the shoulder. Results of US were expressed as normal tendon, tendinopathy or full-thickness tear (the reference). For each clinical test and each US criteria, sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value and positive predictive value, accuracy, negative likelihood ratio (NLR) and positive likelihood ratio (PLR) were calculated. Clinical relevance was defined as PLR ≥2 and NLR ≤0.5. For 35 patients (39 shoulders), Jobe (PLR: 2.08, NLR: 0.31) and full-can (2, 0.5) test results were relevant for diagnosis of supraspinatus tears and resisted lateral rotation (2.42, 0.5) for infraspinatus tears, with weakness as response criteria. The lift-off test (8.50, 0.27) was relevant for subscapularis tears with lag sign as response criteria. Yergason's test (3.7, 0.41) was relevant for tendinopathy of the long head of the biceps with pain as a response criterion. There was no relevant clinical test for diagnosis of tendinopathy of supraspinatus, infraspinatus or subscapularis. Five of 11 clinical tests were relevant for degenerative rotator cuff disease. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Assessing cutoff values for increased exercise blood pressure to predict incident hypertension in a general population.

PubMed

Lorbeer, Roberto; Ittermann, Till; Völzke, Henry; Gläser, Sven; Ewert, Ralf; Felix, Stephan B; Dörr, Marcus

2015-07-01

Cutoff values for increased exercise blood pressure (BP) are not established in hypertension guidelines. The aim of the study was to assess optimal cutoff values for increased exercise BP to predict incident hypertension. Data of 661 normotensive participants (386 women) aged 25-77 years from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-1) with a 5-year follow-up were used. Exercise BP was measured at a submaximal level of 100 W and at maximum level of a symptom-limited cycle ergometry test. Cutoff values for increased exercise BP were defined at the maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of incident hypertension. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and net reclassification index (NRI) were calculated to investigate whether increased exercise BP adds predictive value for incident hypertension beyond established cardiovascular risk factors. In men, values of 160  mmHg (100  W level; AUC = 0.7837; NRI = 0.534, P < 0.001) and 210  mmHg (maximum level; AUC = 0.7677; NRI = 0.340, P = 0.003) were detected as optimal cutoff values for the definition of increased exercise SBP. A value of 190  mmHg (AUC = 0.8347; NRI = 0.519, P < 0.001) showed relevance for the definition of increased exercise SBP in women at the maximum level. According to our analyses, 190 and 210  mmHg are clinically relevant cutoff values for increased exercise SBP at the maximum exercise level of cycle ergometry test for women and men, respectively. In addition, for men, our analyses provided a cutoff value of 160  mmHg for increased exercise SBP at the 100  W level.

Prevalence and prediction of exercise-induced oxygen desaturation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

van Gestel, A J R; Clarenbach, C F; Stöwhas, A C; Teschler, S; Russi, E W; Teschler, H; Kohler, M

2012-01-01

Previous studies with small sample sizes reported contradicting findings as to whether pulmonary function tests can predict exercise-induced oxygen desaturation (EID). To evaluate whether forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV(1)), resting oxygen saturation (SpO(2)) and diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) are predictors of EID in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We measured FEV(1), DLCO, SpO(2) at rest and during a 6-min walking test as well as physical activity by an accelerometer. A drop in SpO(2) of >4 to <90% was defined as EID. To evaluate associations between measures of lung function and EID univariate and multivariate analyses were used and positive/negative predictive values were calculated. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine the most useful threshold in order to predict/exclude EID. We included 154 patients with COPD (87 females). The mean FEV(1) was 43.0% (19.2) predicted and the prevalence of EID was 61.7%. The only independent predictor of EID was FEV(1) and the optimal cutoff value of FEV(1) was at 50% predicted (area under ROC curve, 0.85; p < 0.001). The positive predictive value of a threshold of FEV(1) <50% was 0.83 with a likelihood ratio of 3.03 and the negative predicting value of a threshold of FEV(1) ≥80% was 1.0. The severity of EID was correlated with daily physical activity (r = -0.31, p = 0.008). EID is highly prevalent among patients with COPD and can be predicted by FEV(1). EID seems to be associated with impaired daily physical activity which supports its clinical importance. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Early PET/CT scan is more effective than RECIST in predicting outcome of patients with liver metastases from colorectal cancer treated with preoperative chemotherapy plus bevacizumab.

PubMed

Lastoria, Secondo; Piccirillo, Maria Carmela; Caracò, Corradina; Nasti, Guglielmo; Aloj, Luigi; Arrichiello, Cecilia; de Lutio di Castelguidone, Elisabetta; Tatangelo, Fabiana; Ottaiano, Alessandro; Iaffaioli, Rosario Vincenzo; Izzo, Francesco; Romano, Giovanni; Giordano, Pasqualina; Signoriello, Simona; Gallo, Ciro; Perrone, Francesco

2013-12-01

Markers predictive of treatment effect might be useful to improve the treatment of patients with metastatic solid tumors. Particularly, early changes in tumor metabolism measured by PET/CT with (18)F-FDG could predict the efficacy of treatment better than standard dimensional Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumors (RECIST) response. We performed PET/CT evaluation before and after 1 cycle of treatment in patients with resectable liver metastases from colorectal cancer, within a phase 2 trial of preoperative FOLFIRI plus bevacizumab. For each lesion, the maximum standardized uptake value (SUV) and the total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were determined. On the basis of previous studies, a ≤ -50% change from baseline was used as a threshold for significant metabolic response for maximum SUV and, exploratively, for TLG. Standard RECIST response was assessed with CT after 3 mo of treatment. Pathologic response was assessed in patients undergoing resection. The association between metabolic and CT/RECIST and pathologic response was tested with the McNemar test; the ability to predict progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was tested with the Log-rank test and a multivariable Cox model. Thirty-three patients were analyzed. After treatment, there was a notable decrease of all the parameters measured by PET/CT. Early metabolic PET/CT response (either SUV- or TLG-based) had a stronger, independent and statistically significant predictive value for PFS and OS than both CT/RECIST and pathologic response at multivariate analysis, although with different degrees of statistical significance. The predictive value of CT/RECIST response was not significant at multivariate analysis. PET/CT response was significantly predictive of long-term outcomes during preoperative treatment of patients with liver metastases from colorectal cancer, and its predictive ability was higher than that of CT/RECIST response after 3 mo of treatment. Such findings need to be confirmed by larger prospective trials.

Validity of Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test-Korean Revised Version for Screening Alcohol Use Disorder according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition Criteria.

PubMed

Chang, Jung Wei; Kim, Jong Sung; Jung, Jin Gyu; Kim, Sung Soo; Yoon, Seok Joon; Jang, Hak Sun

2016-11-01

The Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) has been widely used to identify alcohol use disorder (AUD). This study evaluated the validity of the AUDIT-Korean revised version (AUDIT-KR) for screening AUD according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fifth edition (DSM-5) criteria. This research was conducted with 443 subjects who visited the Chungnam National University Hospital for a comprehensive medical examination. All subjects completed the demographic questionnaire and AUDIT-KR without assistance. Subjects were divided into two groups according to DSM-5 criteria: an AUD group, which included patients that fit the criteria for AUD (120 males and 21 females), and a non-AUD group, which included 146 males and 156 females that did not meet AUD criteria. The appropriate cut-off values, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the AUDIT-KR were evaluated. The mean±standard deviation AUDIT-KR scores were 10.32±7.48 points in males and 3.23±4.42 points in females. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% confidence interval, CI) of the AUDIT-KR for identifying AUD was 0.884 (0.840-0.920) in males and 0.962 (0.923-0.985) in females. The optimal cut-off value of the AUDIT-KR was 10 points for males (sensitivity, 81.90%; specificity, 81.33%; positive predictive value, 77.2%; negative predictive value, 85.3%) and 5 points for females (sensitivity, 100.00%; specificity, 88.54%; positive predictive value, 52.6%; negative predictive value, 100.0%). The AUDIT-KR has high reliability and validity for identifying AUD according to DSM-5 criteria.

Is it time to sound an alarm about false-positive cell-free DNA testing for fetal aneuploidy?

PubMed

Mennuti, Michael T; Cherry, Athena M; Morrissette, Jennifer J D; Dugoff, Lorraine

2013-11-01

Testing cell-free DNA (cfDNA) in maternal blood samples has been shown to have very high sensitivity for the detection of fetal aneuploidy with very low false-positive results in high-risk patients who undergo invasive prenatal diagnosis. Recent observation in clinical practice of several cases of positive cfDNA tests for trisomy 18 and trisomy 13, which were not confirmed by cytogenetic testing of the pregnancy, may reflect a limitation of the positive predictive value of this quantitative testing, particularly when it is used to detect rare aneuploidies. Analysis of a larger number of false-positive cases is needed to evaluate whether these observations reflect the positive predictive value that should be expected. Infrequently, mechanisms (such as low percentage mosaicism or confined placental mosaicism) might also lead to positive cfDNA testing that is not concordant with standard prenatal cytogenetic diagnosis. The need to explore these and other possible causes of false-positive cfDNA testing is exemplified by 2 of these cases. Additional evaluation of cfDNA testing in clinical practice and a mechanism for the systematic reporting of false-positive and false-negative cases will be important before this test is offered widely to the general population of low-risk obstetric patients. In the meantime, incorporating information about the positive predictive value in pretest counseling and in clinical laboratory reports is recommended. These experiences reinforce the importance of offering invasive testing to confirm cfDNA results before parental decision-making. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia in the emergency department: evaluation of clinical parameters.

PubMed

Huijts, S M; Boersma, W G; Grobbee, D E; Gruber, W C; Jansen, K U; Kluytmans, J A J W; Kuipers, B A F; Palmen, F; Pride, M W; Webber, C; Bonten, M J M

2014-12-01

The aim of this study was to quantify the value of clinical predictors available in the emergency department (ED) in predicting Streptococcus pneumoniae as the cause of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). A prospective, observational, cohort study of patients with CAP presenting in the ED was performed. Pneumococcal aetiology of CAP was based on either bacteraemia, or S. pneumoniae being cultured from sputum, or urinary immunochromatographic assay positivity, or positivity of a novel serotype-specific urinary antigen detection test. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors and various cut-off values of probability scores were used to evaluate the usefulness of the model. Three hundred and twenty-eight (31.0%) of 1057 patients with CAP had pneumococcal CAP. Nine independent predictors for pneumococcal pneumonia were identified, but the clinical utility of this prediction model was disappointing, because of low positive predictive values or a small yield. Clinical criteria have insufficient diagnostic capacity to predict pneumococcal CAP. Rapid antigen detection tests are needed to diagnose S. pneumoniae at the time of hospital admission. © 2014 The Authors Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2014 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

A new computer program for mass screening of visual defects in preschool children.

PubMed

Briscoe, D; Lifshitz, T; Grotman, M; Kushelevsky, A; Vardi, H; Weizman, S; Biedner, B

1998-04-01

To test the effectiveness of a PC computer program for detecting vision disorders which could be used by non-trained personnel, and to determine the prevalence of visual impairment in a sample population of preschool children in the city of Beer-Sheba, Israel. 292 preschool children, aged 4-6 years, were examined in the kindergarten setting, using the computer system and "gold standard" tests. Visual acuity and stereopsis were tested and compared using Snellen type symbol charts and random dot stereograms respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and kappa test were evaluated. A computer pseudo Worth four dot test was also performed but could not be compared with the standard Worth four dot test owing to the inability of many children to count. Agreement between computer and gold standard tests was 83% and 97.3% for visual acuity and stereopsis respectively. The sensitivity of the computer stereogram was only 50%, but it had a specificity of 98.9%, whereas the sensitivity and specificity of the visual acuity test were 81.5% and 83% respectively. The positive predictive value of both tests was about 63%. 27.7% of children tested had a visual acuity of 6/12 or less and stereopsis was absent in 28% using standard tests. Impairment of fusion was found in 5% of children using the computer pseudo Worth four dot test. The computer program was found to be stimulating, rapid, and easy to perform. The wide availability of computers in schools and at home allow it to be used as an additional screening tool by non-trained personnel, such as teachers and parents, but it is not a replacement for standard testing.

Assessing Old and New Diagnostic Tests for Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease.

PubMed

Vaezi, Michael F; Sifrim, Daniel

2018-01-01

A detailed critique of objective measurements of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) would improve management of patients suspecting of having reflux, leading to rational selection of treatment and better outcomes. Many diagnostic tests for GERD have been developed over the past decades. We analyze their development, positive- and negative-predictive values, and ability to predict response to treatment. These features are important for development of medical, surgical, and endoscopic therapies for GERD. We discuss the value of available diagnostic tests and review their role in management of patients with persistent reflux symptoms despite adequate medical or surgical treatment. This is becoming a significant health economic problem, due to the widespread use of proton pump inhibitors. GERD is believed to cause nonesophageal symptoms, such as those provoked by ear, nose, throat, or respiratory disorders. We analyze the value of GERD diagnostic tests in evaluation of these troublesome, nonesophageal symptoms. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Verification of the directivity index and other measures of directivity in predicting directional benefit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dittberner, Andrew; Bentler, Ruth

2005-09-01

The relationship between various directivity measures and subject performance with directional microphone hearing aids was determined. Test devices included first- and second-order directional microphones. Recordings of sentences and noise (Hearing in Noise Test, HINT) were made through each test device in simple, complex, and anisotropic background noise conditions. Twenty-six subjects, with normal hearing, were administered the HINT test recordings, and directional benefit was computed. These measures were correlated to theoretical, free-field, and KEMAR DI values, as well as front-to-back ratios, in situ SNRs, and a newly proposed Db-SNR, wherein a predictive value of the SNR improvement is calculated as a function of the noise source incidence. The different predictive scores showed high correlation to the measured directional benefit scores in the complex (diffuse-like) background noise condition (r=0.89-0.97, p<0.05) but not across all background noise conditions (r=0.45-0.97, p<0.05). The Db-SNR approach and the in situ SNR measures provided excellent prediction of subject performance in all background noise conditions (0.85-0.97, p<0.05) None of the predictive measures could account for the effects of reverberation on the speech signal (r=0.35-0.40, p<0.05).

Experimental evaluation of heat transfer on a 1030:1 area ratio rocket nozzle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kacynski, Kenneth J.; Pavli, Albert J.; Smith, Tamara A.

1987-01-01

A 1030:1 carbon steel, heat-sink nozzle was tested. The test conditions included a nominal chamber pressure of 2413 kN/sq m and a mixture ratio range of 2.78 to 5.49. The propellants were gaseous oxygen and gaseous hydrogen. Outer wall temperature measurements were used to calculate the inner wall temperature and the heat flux and heat rate to the nozzle at specified axial locations. The experimental heat fluxes were compared to those predicted by the Two-Dimensional Kinetics (TDK) computer model analysis program. When laminar boundary layer flow was assumed in the analysis, the predicted values were within 15 percent of the experimental values for the area ratios of 20 to 975. However, when turbulent boundary layer conditions were assumed, the predicted values were approximately 120 percent higher than the experimental values. A study was performed to determine if the conditions within the nozzle could sustain a laminar boundary layer. Using the flow properties predicted by TDK, the momentum-thickness Reynolds number was calculated, and the point of transition to turbulent flow was predicted. The predicted transition point was within 0.5 inches of the nozzle throat. Calculations of the acceleration parameter were then made to determine if the flow conditions could produce relaminarization of the boundary layer. It was determined that if the boundary layer flow was inclined to transition to turbulent, the acceleration conditions within the nozzle would tend to suppress turbulence and keep the flow laminar-like.

Experimental evaluation of heat transfer on a 1030:1 area ratio rocket nozzle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kacynski, Kenneth J.; Pavli, Albert J.; Smith, Tamara A.

1987-01-01

A 1030:1 carbon steel, heat-sink nozzle was tested. The test conditions included a nominal chamber pressure of 2413 kN/sq m and a mixture ratio range of 2.78 to 5.49. The propellants were gaseous oxygen and gaseous hydrogen. Outer wall temperature measurements were used to calculate the inner wall temperature and the heat flux and heat rate to the nozzle at specified axial locations. The experimental heat fluxes were compared to those predicted by the Two-Dimensional Kinetics (TDK) computer model analysis program. When laminar boundary layer flow was assumed in the analysis, the predicted values were within 15% of the experimental values for the area ratios of 20 to 975. However, when turbulent boundary layer conditions were assumed, the predicted values were approximately 120% higher than the experimental values. A study was performed to determine if the conditions within the nozzle could sustain a laminar boundary layer. Using the flow properties predicted by TDK, the momentum-thickness Reynolds number was calculated, and the point of transition to turbulent flow was predicted. The predicted transition point was within 0.5 inches of the nozzle throat. Calculations of the acceleration parameter were then made to determine if the flow conditions could produce relaminarization of the boundary layer. It was determined that if the boundary layer flow was inclined to transition to turbulent, the acceleration conditions within the nozzle would tend to suppress turbulence and keep the flow laminar-like.

Predicting coronary artery disease using different artificial neural network models.

PubMed

Colak, M Cengiz; Colak, Cemil; Kocatürk, Hasan; Sağiroğlu, Seref; Barutçu, Irfan

2008-08-01

Eight different learning algorithms used for creating artificial neural network (ANN) models and the different ANN models in the prediction of coronary artery disease (CAD) are introduced. This work was carried out as a retrospective case-control study. Overall, 124 consecutive patients who had been diagnosed with CAD by coronary angiography (at least 1 coronary stenosis > 50% in major epicardial arteries) were enrolled in the work. Angiographically, the 113 people (group 2) with normal coronary arteries were taken as control subjects. Multi-layered perceptrons ANN architecture were applied. The ANN models trained with different learning algorithms were performed in 237 records, divided into training (n=171) and testing (n=66) data sets. The performance of prediction was evaluated by sensitivity, specificity and accuracy values based on standard definitions. The results have demonstrated that ANN models trained with eight different learning algorithms are promising because of high (greater than 71%) sensitivity, specificity and accuracy values in the prediction of CAD. Accuracy, sensitivity and specificity values varied between 83.63%-100%, 86.46%-100% and 74.67%-100% for training, respectively. For testing, the values were more than 71% for sensitivity, 76% for specificity and 81% for accuracy. It may be proposed that the use of different learning algorithms other than backpropagation and larger sample sizes can improve the performance of prediction. The proposed ANN models trained with these learning algorithms could be used a promising approach for predicting CAD without the need for invasive diagnostic methods and could help in the prognostic clinical decision.

A comparative study of the typhidot (Dot-EIA) and Widal tests in blood culture positive cases of typhoid fever.

PubMed

Khoharo, Haji Khan

2011-07-01

Seventy-six blood culture positive typhoid cases and forty-eight controls were studied. The typhidot test was positive in 74 (97.36%) cases, with a sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of 96%, 89.5%, and 95%, respectively, compared to the Widal test which was positive in 56 (73.68%) cases with a sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 72%, 87%, and 87%, respectively (P = 0.001). In the control group, seven (14.5%) cases tested positive for the Widal test and two (4.16%) for the typhidot (P = 0.001), yielding the sensitivity and specificity for the Widal test and the typhidot test of 63% and 83%, and 85% and 97%, respectively. We conclude that the Dot-EIA (enzyme immunoassay; typhidot) is a more sensitive and specific test which is easy to perform and more reliable compared to the Widal test and that it is useful in early therapy.

Reliability of three bulk-tank antimicrobial residue detection assays used to test individual milk samples from cows with mild clinical mastitis.

PubMed

Gibbons-Burgener, S N; Kaneene, J B; Lloyd, J W; Leykam, J F; Erskine, R J

2001-11-01

To determine the likelihood of false-positive results when testing milk samples from individual cows by use of 3 commercially available assays (Penzyme MilkTest and the SNAP beta-lactam and Delvo-SP assays) labeled for use with commingled milk. Milk samples from 111 cows with mild clinical mastitis. Cows were randomly assigned to the control (no antimicrobials) or intramammary treatment group. Posttreatment milk samples were collected at the first milking after the labeled withholding period or an equivalent time for controls, randomly ordered, and tested twice by use of each assay and once by use of high-performance liquid chromatography. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were determined for each assay. Concordance of results for the same sample was assessed for each assay by calculating kappa. Sensitivities of the Delvo-SP and SNAP lactam assays were > 90%, whereas the sensitivity of the Penzyme Milk Test was 60%. Positive predictive values (range, 39.29 to 73.68%) were poor for all 3 assays. Concordance of test results was excellent for the SNAP beta-lactam and Delvo-SP assays (kappa = 0.846 and 0.813, respectively) but was less for the Penzyme MilkTest (kappa = 0.545). Because of the low positive predictive values, these 3 assays may not be useful for detecting violative antimicrobial residues in individual milk samples from cows treated for mild clinical mastitis. However, repeatability of each assay was considered good to excellent.

Prediction of breast cancer risk with volatile biomarkers in breath.

PubMed

Phillips, Michael; Cataneo, Renee N; Cruz-Ramos, Jose Alfonso; Huston, Jan; Ornelas, Omar; Pappas, Nadine; Pathak, Sonali

2018-03-23

Human breath contains volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that are biomarkers of breast cancer. We investigated the positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) of breath VOC biomarkers as indicators of breast cancer risk. We employed ultra-clean breath collection balloons to collect breath samples from 54 women with biopsy-proven breast cancer and 124 cancer-free controls. Breath VOCs were analyzed with gas chromatography (GC) combined with either mass spectrometry (GC MS) or surface acoustic wave detection (GC SAW). Chromatograms were randomly assigned to a training set or a validation set. Monte Carlo analysis identified significant breath VOC biomarkers of breast cancer in the training set, and these biomarkers were incorporated into a multivariate algorithm to predict disease in the validation set. In the unsplit dataset, the predictive algorithms generated discriminant function (DF) values that varied with sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV. Using GC MS, test accuracy = 90% (area under curve of receiver operating characteristic in unsplit dataset) and cross-validated accuracy = 77%. Using GC SAW, test accuracy = 86% and cross-validated accuracy = 74%. With both assays, a low DF value was associated with a low risk of breast cancer (NPV > 99.9%). A high DF value was associated with a high risk of breast cancer and PPV rising to 100%. Analysis of breath VOC samples collected with ultra-clean balloons detected biomarkers that accurately predicted risk of breast cancer.

Prevalence of Visual Impairment among 4- to 6-years-old Children in Khon Kaen City Municipality, Thailand.

PubMed

Wongwai, Phanthipha; Anupongongarch, Pacharapan; Suwannaraj, Sirinya; Asawaphureekorn, Somkiat

2016-08-01

To evaluate the prevalence of visual impairment of children aged four to six years in Khon Kaen City Municipality, Thailand. The visual acuity test was performed on 1,286 children in kindergarten schools located in Khon Kaen Municipality. The first test of visual acuity was done by trained teachers and the second test by the pediatric ophthalmologist. The prevalence of visual impairment of both tests was recorded including sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio, and predictive value of the test by teachers. The causes of visual impairment were also recorded. There were 39 children with visual impairment from the test by the teacher and 12 children from the test by the ophthalmologist. Myopia is the single cause of visual impairment. Mean spherical equivalence is 1.375 diopters (SD = 0.53). Median spherical equivalence is 1.375 diopters (minimum = 0.5, maximum =4). The detection of visual impairment by trained teachers had a sensitivity of 1.00 (95% CI 0.76-1.00), specificity of 0.98 (95% CI 0.97-0.99), likelihood ratio for a positive test 44.58 (95% CI 30.32-65.54), likelihood ratio for a negative test 0.04 (95% CI 0.003-0.60), positive predictive value of 0.31 (95% CI 0.19-0.47), and negative predictive value of 1.00 (95% CI 0.99-1.00). The prevalence of visual impairment among children aged four to six year old is 0.9%. Trained teachers can be examiners for screening purpose.

[Validation of the modified algorithm for predicting host susceptibility to viruses taking into account susceptibility parameters of primary target cell cultures and natural immunity factors].

PubMed

Zhukov, V A; Shishkina, L N; Safatov, A S; Sergeev, A A; P'iankov, O V; Petrishchenko, V A; Zaĭtsev, B N; Toporkov, V S; Sergeev, A N; Nesvizhskiĭ, Iu V; Vorob'ev, A A

2010-01-01

The paper presents results of testing a modified algorithm for predicting virus ID50 values in a host of interest by extrapolation from a model host taking into account immune neutralizing factors and thermal inactivation of the virus. The method was tested for A/Aichi/2/68 influenza virus in SPF Wistar rats, SPF CD-1 mice and conventional ICR mice. Each species was used as a host of interest while the other two served as model hosts. Primary lung and trachea cells and secretory factors of the rats' airway epithelium were used to measure parameters needed for the purpose of prediction. Predicted ID50 values were not significantly different (p = 0.05) from those experimentally measured in vivo. The study was supported by ISTC/DARPA Agreement 450p.

Prediction and visualization of redox conditions in the groundwater of Central Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosecrans, Celia Z.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Gronberg, JoAnn M.

2017-01-01

Regional-scale, three-dimensional continuous probability models, were constructed for aspects of redox conditions in the groundwater system of the Central Valley, California. These models yield grids depicting the probability that groundwater in a particular location will have dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations less than selected threshold values representing anoxic groundwater conditions, or will have dissolved manganese (Mn) concentrations greater than selected threshold values representing secondary drinking water-quality contaminant levels (SMCL) and health-based screening levels (HBSL). The probability models were constrained by the alluvial boundary of the Central Valley to a depth of approximately 300 m. Probability distribution grids can be extracted from the 3-D models at any desired depth, and are of interest to water-resource managers, water-quality researchers, and groundwater modelers concerned with the occurrence of natural and anthropogenic contaminants related to anoxic conditions.Models were constructed using a Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) machine learning technique that produces many trees as part of an additive model and has the ability to handle many variables, automatically incorporate interactions, and is resistant to collinearity. Machine learning methods for statistical prediction are becoming increasing popular in that they do not require assumptions associated with traditional hypothesis testing. Models were constructed using measured dissolved oxygen and manganese concentrations sampled from 2767 wells within the alluvial boundary of the Central Valley, and over 60 explanatory variables representing regional-scale soil properties, soil chemistry, land use, aquifer textures, and aquifer hydrologic properties. Models were trained on a USGS dataset of 932 wells, and evaluated on an independent hold-out dataset of 1835 wells from the California Division of Drinking Water. We used cross-validation to assess the predictive performance of models of varying complexity, as a basis for selecting final models. Trained models were applied to cross-validation testing data and a separate hold-out dataset to evaluate model predictive performance by emphasizing three model metrics of fit: Kappa; accuracy; and the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC). The final trained models were used for mapping predictions at discrete depths to a depth of 304.8 m. Trained DO and Mn models had accuracies of 86–100%, Kappa values of 0.69–0.99, and ROC values of 0.92–1.0. Model accuracies for cross-validation testing datasets were 82–95% and ROC values were 0.87–0.91, indicating good predictive performance. Kappas for the cross-validation testing dataset were 0.30–0.69, indicating fair to substantial agreement between testing observations and model predictions. Hold-out data were available for the manganese model only and indicated accuracies of 89–97%, ROC values of 0.73–0.75, and Kappa values of 0.06–0.30. The predictive performance of both the DO and Mn models was reasonable, considering all three of these fit metrics and the low percentages of low-DO and high-Mn events in the data.

CoMFA and CoMSIA 3D-QSAR studies on S(6)-(4-nitrobenzyl)mercaptopurine riboside (NBMPR) analogs as inhibitors of human equilibrative nucleoside transporter 1 (hENT1).

PubMed

Gupte, Amol; Buolamwini, John K

2009-01-15

3D-QSAR (CoMFA and CoMSIA) studies were performed on human equlibrative nucleoside transporter (hENT1) inhibitors displaying K(i) values ranging from 10,000 to 0.7nM. Both CoMFA and CoMSIA analysis gave reliable models with q2 values >0.50 and r2 values >0.92. The models have been validated for their stability and robustness using group validation and bootstrapping techniques and for their predictive abilities using an external test set of nine compounds. The high predictive r2 values of the test set (0.72 for CoMFA model and 0.74 for CoMSIA model) reveals that the models can prove to be a useful tool for activity prediction of newly designed nucleoside transporter inhibitors. The CoMFA and CoMSIA contour maps identify features important for exhibiting good binding affinities at the transporter, and can thus serve as a useful guide for the design of potential equilibrative nucleoside transporter inhibitors.

[Serum PTH levels as a predictive factor of hypocalcaemia after total thyroidectomy].

PubMed

Díez Alonso, Manuel; Sánchez López, José Daniel; Sánchez-Seco Peña, María Isabel; Ratia Jiménez, Tomás; Arribas Gómez, Ignacio; Rodríguez Pascual, Angel; Martín-Duce, Antonio; Guadalix Hidalgo, Gregorio; Hernández Domínguez, Sara; Granell Vicent, Javier

2009-02-01

Postoperative parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels as a predictor of hypocalcaemia in patients subjected to total thyroidectomy is analyzed. Prospective study involving 67 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy due to a benign disease. Serum PTH and ionised calcium were measured 20 h after surgery. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of PTH and ionised calcium levels were calculated to predict clinical and analytical hypocalcaemia. A total of 42 (62.7%) patients developed hypocalcaemia (ionised calcium<0.95 mmol/l), but only 20 (29.9%) presented with symptoms. PTH concentration the day after surgery was significantly lower in the group that developed symptomatic hypocalcaemia (5.57+/-6.4 pg/ml) than in the asymptomatic (21.5+/-15.3 pg/ml) or normocalcaemic (26.8+/-24.9 pg/ml) groups (p=0.001). Taking the value of 13 pg/ml as a cut-off point of PTH levels, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 54%, 72%, 76% and 48%, respectively. On the other hand, sensitivity for predicting symptomatic hypocalcaemia was 95% and specificity was 76%. The test showed a high incidence of false positives (11/30, 36%). Negative predictive value was 97% and positive predictive value was 65%. In multivariate analysis, PTH and ionised calcium were the only perioperative factors that showed an independent predictive value as risk indicators of symptomatic hypocalcaemia. Normal PTH levels 20 h after surgery practically rule out the subsequent appearance of hypocalcaemia symptoms. On the other hand, low PTH levels are not necessarily associated to symptomatic hypocalcaemia due to the high number of false positives.

Prediction of N-Methyl-D-Aspartate Receptor GluN1-Ligand Binding Affinity by a Novel SVM-Pose/SVM-Score Combinatorial Ensemble Docking Scheme

PubMed Central

Leong, Max K.; Syu, Ren-Guei; Ding, Yi-Lung; Weng, Ching-Feng

2017-01-01

The glycine-binding site of the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) subunit GluN1 is a potential pharmacological target for neurodegenerative disorders. A novel combinatorial ensemble docking scheme using ligand and protein conformation ensembles and customized support vector machine (SVM)-based models to select the docked pose and to predict the docking score was generated for predicting the NMDAR GluN1-ligand binding affinity. The predicted root mean square deviation (RMSD) values in pose by SVM-Pose models were found to be in good agreement with the observed values (n = 30, r2 = 0.928–0.988,  = 0.894–0.954, RMSE = 0.002–0.412, s = 0.001–0.214), and the predicted pKi values by SVM-Score were found to be in good agreement with the observed values for the training samples (n = 24, r2 = 0.967,  = 0.899, RMSE = 0.295, s = 0.170) and test samples (n = 13, q2 = 0.894, RMSE = 0.437, s = 0.202). When subjected to various statistical validations, the developed SVM-Pose and SVM-Score models consistently met the most stringent criteria. A mock test asserted the predictivity of this novel docking scheme. Collectively, this accurate novel combinatorial ensemble docking scheme can be used to predict the NMDAR GluN1-ligand binding affinity for facilitating drug discovery. PMID:28059133

Prediction of N-Methyl-D-Aspartate Receptor GluN1-Ligand Binding Affinity by a Novel SVM-Pose/SVM-Score Combinatorial Ensemble Docking Scheme.

PubMed

Leong, Max K; Syu, Ren-Guei; Ding, Yi-Lung; Weng, Ching-Feng

2017-01-06

The glycine-binding site of the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) subunit GluN1 is a potential pharmacological target for neurodegenerative disorders. A novel combinatorial ensemble docking scheme using ligand and protein conformation ensembles and customized support vector machine (SVM)-based models to select the docked pose and to predict the docking score was generated for predicting the NMDAR GluN1-ligand binding affinity. The predicted root mean square deviation (RMSD) values in pose by SVM-Pose models were found to be in good agreement with the observed values (n = 30, r 2  = 0.928-0.988,  = 0.894-0.954, RMSE = 0.002-0.412, s = 0.001-0.214), and the predicted pK i values by SVM-Score were found to be in good agreement with the observed values for the training samples (n = 24, r 2  = 0.967,  = 0.899, RMSE = 0.295, s = 0.170) and test samples (n = 13, q 2  = 0.894, RMSE = 0.437, s = 0.202). When subjected to various statistical validations, the developed SVM-Pose and SVM-Score models consistently met the most stringent criteria. A mock test asserted the predictivity of this novel docking scheme. Collectively, this accurate novel combinatorial ensemble docking scheme can be used to predict the NMDAR GluN1-ligand binding affinity for facilitating drug discovery.

Prediction of N-Methyl-D-Aspartate Receptor GluN1-Ligand Binding Affinity by a Novel SVM-Pose/SVM-Score Combinatorial Ensemble Docking Scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leong, Max K.; Syu, Ren-Guei; Ding, Yi-Lung; Weng, Ching-Feng

2017-01-01

The glycine-binding site of the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) subunit GluN1 is a potential pharmacological target for neurodegenerative disorders. A novel combinatorial ensemble docking scheme using ligand and protein conformation ensembles and customized support vector machine (SVM)-based models to select the docked pose and to predict the docking score was generated for predicting the NMDAR GluN1-ligand binding affinity. The predicted root mean square deviation (RMSD) values in pose by SVM-Pose models were found to be in good agreement with the observed values (n = 30, r2 = 0.928-0.988,  = 0.894-0.954, RMSE = 0.002-0.412, s = 0.001-0.214), and the predicted pKi values by SVM-Score were found to be in good agreement with the observed values for the training samples (n = 24, r2 = 0.967,  = 0.899, RMSE = 0.295, s = 0.170) and test samples (n = 13, q2 = 0.894, RMSE = 0.437, s = 0.202). When subjected to various statistical validations, the developed SVM-Pose and SVM-Score models consistently met the most stringent criteria. A mock test asserted the predictivity of this novel docking scheme. Collectively, this accurate novel combinatorial ensemble docking scheme can be used to predict the NMDAR GluN1-ligand binding affinity for facilitating drug discovery.

Role of ascitic fluid adenosine deaminase (ADA) and serum CA-125 in the diagnosis of tuberculous peritonitis.

PubMed

Ali, N; Nath, N C; Parvin, R; Rahman, A; Bhuiyan, T M; Rahman, M; Mohsin M N

2014-12-01

This cross sectional study was carried out in the department of gastroenterology, BIRDEM, Dhaka from January 2010 to May 2011 to determine the role of ascitic fluid ADA and serum CA-125 in the diagnosis of clinically suspected tubercular peritonitis. Total 30 patients (age 39.69 ± 21.26, 18M/12F) with clinical suspicion of tuberculosis peritonitis were included in this study after analyzing selection criteria. Laparoscopic peritoneal biopsy with 'histopathological diagnosis' was considered gold standard against which accuracics of two biomarkers (ADA & CA-125) were compared. Cut off value of ADA and CA-125 are 24 u/l, 35 U/ml respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy of ADA as a diagnostic modality in tuberculos peritonitis were 87.5%, 83.33%, 95.45%, 62.5% and 86.67% respectively where as CA-125 was found to have 83.33% sensitivity, 50% specificity, 86.9% positive predictive value, 42.85% negative predictive value and 76.6% accuracy. Both biomarkers are simple, non-invasive, rapid and relatively cheap diagnostic test where as laparoscopy is an invasive procedure, costly & requires trained staff and not without risk and also not feasible in all the centre in our country. So ascitic fluid ADA and serum CA-125 are important diagnostic test for peritoneal tuberculosis.

The Predictive Validity of the ABFM's In-Training Examination.

PubMed

O'Neill, Thomas R; Li, Zijia; Peabody, Michael R; Lybarger, Melanie; Royal, Kenneth; Puffer, James C

2015-05-01

Our objective was to examine the predictive validity of the American Board of Family Medicine's (ABFM) In-Training Examination (ITE) with regard to predicting outcomes on the ABFM certification examination. This study used a repeated measures design across three levels of medical training (PGY1--PGY2, PGY2--PGY3, and PGY3--initial certification) with three different cohorts (2010--2011, 2011--2012, and 2012--2013) to examine: (1) how well the residents' ITE scores correlated with their test scores in the following year, (2) what the typical score increase was across training years, and (3) what was the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the PGY3 scores with regard to predicting future results on the MC-FP Examination. ITE scores generally correlate at about .7 with the following year's ITE or with the following year's certification examination. The mean growth from PGY1 to PGY2 was 52 points, from PGY2 to PGY3 was 34 points, and from PGY3 to initial certification was 27 points. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were .91, .47, .96, and .27, respectively. The ITE is a useful predictor of future ITE and initial certification examination performance.

Estimating the positive predictive value of opportunistic population testing for gonorrhoea as part of the English Chlamydia Screening Programme.

PubMed

Fowler, T; Edeghere, O; Inglis, N; Bradshaw, S

2013-03-01

Advances in technology have raised the possibility of including gonorrhoea testing as part of chlamydia screening. In England this is recommended only where the positive predictive value (PPV) of the test is ≥90%. This study assessed the PPV for gonorrhoea testing using routine testing data. Routine data (including gonorrhoea testing) from the Greater Manchester Chlamydia Screening Programme (GMCSP) in 2009/2010, were used to estimate the PPV for gonorrhoea testing. Of those screened, 0.3% (59/18044) of men and 0.4% (174/41873) of women tested positive for gonorrhoea. The PPV was 82.3% in women and 73.6% in men, in those who also tested positive for chlamydia. For women and men testing negative for chlamydia the PPV for a positive gonorrhoea test was incalculable. The low PPV observed in most groups suggests that where population testing for gonorrhoea occurs there is a need for further confirmatory testing of positive results before treatment decisions are made. Clinicians should be aware of screening test result limitations in this context.

[Application of multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model in predicting the mumps incidence].

PubMed

Hui, Shisheng; Chen, Lizhang; Liu, Fuqiang; Ouyang, Yanhao

2015-12-01

To establish multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA) according to mumps disease incidence in Hunan province, and to predict the mumps incidence from May 2015 to April 2016 in Hunan province by the model. The data were downloaded from "Disease Surveillance Information Reporting Management System" in China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The monthly incidence of mumps in Hunan province was collected from January 2004 to April 2015 according to the onset date, including clinical diagnosis and laboratory confirmed cases. The predictive analysis method was the ARIMA model in SPSS 18.0 software, the ARIMA model was established on the monthly incidence of mumps from January 2004 to April 2014, and the date from May 2014 to April 2015 was used as the testing sample, Box-Ljung Q test was used to test the residual of the selected model. Finally, the monthly incidence of mumps from May 2015 to April 2016 was predicted by the model. The peak months of the mumps incidence were May to July every year, and the secondary peak months were November to January of the following year, during January 2004 to April 2014 in Hunan province. After the data sequence was handled by smooth sequence, model identification, establishment and diagnosis, the ARIMA(2,1,1) × (0,1,1)(12) was established, Box-Ljung Q test found, Q=8.40, P=0.868, the residual sequence was white noise, the established model to the data information extraction was complete, the model was reasonable. The R(2) value of the model fitting degree was 0.871, and the value of BIC was -1.646, while the average absolute error of the predicted value and the actual value was 0.025/100 000, the average relative error was 13.004%. The relative error of the model for the prediction of the mumps incidence in Hunan province was small, and the predicting results were reliable. Using the ARIMA(2,1,1) ×(0,1,1)(12) model to predict the mumps incidence from April 2016 to May 2015 in Hunan province, the peak months of the mumps incidence were May to July, and the secondary peak months were November to January of the following year, the incidence of the peak month was close to the same period. The ARIMA(2,1,1)×(0,1,1)(12) model is well fitted the trend of the mumps disease incidence in Hunan province, it has some practical value for the prevention and control of the disease.

[How reliable is the monitoring for doping?].

PubMed

Hüsler, J

1990-12-01

The reliability of the dope control, of the chemical analysis of the urine probes in the accredited laboratories and their decisions, is discussed using probabilistic and statistical methods. Basically, we evaluated and estimated the positive predictive value which means the probability that an urine probe contains prohibited dope substances given a positive test decision. Since there are not statistical data and evidence for some important quantities in relation to the predictive value, an exact evaluation is not possible, only conservative, lower bounds can be given. We found that the predictive value is at least 90% or 95% with respect to the analysis and decision based on the A-probe only, and at least 99% with respect to both A- and B-probes. A more realistic observation, but without sufficient statistical confidence, points to the fact that the true predictive value is significantly larger than these lower estimates.

The predictive value of the sacral base pressure test in detecting specific types of sacroiliac dysfunction

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Travis D.; Urli, Kristina E.; Breitenbach, Jacques; Yelverton, Chris

2007-01-01

Abstract Objective This study aimed to evaluate the validity of the sacral base pressure test in diagnosing sacroiliac joint dysfunction. It also determined the predictive powers of the test in determining which type of sacroiliac joint dysfunction was present. Methods This was a double-blind experimental study with 62 participants. The results from the sacral base pressure test were compared against a cluster of previously validated tests of sacroiliac joint dysfunction to determine its validity and predictive powers. The external rotation of the feet, occurring during the sacral base pressure test, was measured using a digital inclinometer. Results There was no statistically significant difference in the results of the sacral base pressure test between the types of sacroiliac joint dysfunction. In terms of the results of validity, the sacral base pressure test was useful in identifying positive values of sacroiliac joint dysfunction. It was fairly helpful in correctly diagnosing patients with negative test results; however, it had only a “slight” agreement with the diagnosis for κ interpretation. Conclusions In this study, the sacral base pressure test was not a valid test for determining the presence of sacroiliac joint dysfunction or the type of dysfunction present. Further research comparing the agreement of the sacral base pressure test or other sacroiliac joint dysfunction tests with a criterion standard of diagnosis is necessary. PMID:19674694

Buckling Testing and Analysis of Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Motor Cylinders

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weidner, Thomas J.; Larsen, David V.; McCool, Alex (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A series of full-scale buckling tests were performed on the space shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) cylinders. The tests were performed to determine the buckling capability of the cylinders and to provide data for analytical comparison. A nonlinear ANSYS Finite Element Analysis (FEA) model was used to represent and evaluate the testing. Analytical results demonstrated excellent correlation to test results, predicting the failure load within 5%. The analytical value was on the conservative side, predicting a lower failure load than was applied to the test. The resulting study and analysis indicated the important parameters for FEA to accurately predict buckling failure. The resulting method was subsequently used to establish the pre-launch buckling capability of the space shuttle system.

A new approach to measure visual field progression in glaucoma patients using variational bayes linear regression.

PubMed

Murata, Hiroshi; Araie, Makoto; Asaoka, Ryo

2014-11-20

We generated a variational Bayes model to predict visual field (VF) progression in glaucoma patients. This retrospective study included VF series from 911 eyes of 547 glaucoma patients as test data, and VF series from 5049 eyes of 2858 glaucoma patients as training data. Using training data, variational Bayes linear regression (VBLR) was created to predict VF progression. The performance of VBLR was compared against ordinary least-squares linear regression (OLSLR) by predicting VFs in the test dataset. The total deviation (TD) values of test patients' 11th VFs were predicted using TD values from their second to 10th VFs (VF2-10), the root mean squared error (RMSE) associated with each approach then was calculated. Similarly, mean TD (mTD) of test patients' 11th VFs was predicted using VBLR and OLSLR, and the absolute prediction errors compared. The RMSE resulting from VBLR averaged 3.9 ± 2.1 (SD) and 4.9 ± 2.6 dB for prediction based on the second to 10th VFs (VF2-10) and the second to fourth VFs (VF2-4), respectively. The RMSE resulting from OLSLR was 4.1 ± 2.0 (VF2-10) and 19.9 ± 12.0 (VF2-4) dB. The absolute prediction error (SD) for mTD using VBLR was 1.2 ± 1.3 (VF2-10) and 1.9 ± 2.0 (VF2-4) dB, while the prediction error resulting from OLSLR was 1.2 ± 1.3 (VF2-10) and 6.2 ± 6.6 (VF2-4) dB. The VBLR more accurately predicts future VF progression in glaucoma patients compared to conventional OLSLR, especially in short VF series. © ARVO.

Health-related physical fitness measures: reference values and reference equations for use in clinical practice.

PubMed

Tveter, Anne Therese; Dagfinrud, Hanne; Moseng, Tuva; Holm, Inger

2014-07-01

To provide reference values and reference equations for frequently used clinical field tests of health-related physical fitness for use in clinical practice. Cross-sectional design. General community. Convenience sample of volunteers (N=370) between 18 and 90 years of age were recruited from a wide range of settings (ie, work sites, schools, community centers for older adults) and different geographic locations (ie, urban, suburban, rural) in southeastern Norway. Not applicable. The participants conducted 5 clinical field tests (6-minute walk test, stair test, 30-second sit-to-stand test, handgrip test, fingertip-to-floor test). The results of the field tests showed that performance remained unchanged until approximately 50 years of age; after that, performance deteriorated with increasing age. Grip strength (79%), meters walked in 6 minutes (60%), and seconds used on the stair test (59%) could be well predicted by age, sex, height, and weight in participants ≥50 years of age, whereas the performance on all tests was less well predicted in participants <50 years of age. The reference values and reference equations provided in this study may increase the applicability and interpretability of the 6-minute walk test, stair test, 30-second sit-to-stand test, handgrip test, and fingertip-to-floor test in clinical practice. Copyright © 2014 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Initial comparison of single cylinder Stirling engine computer model predictions with test results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tew, R. C., Jr.; Thieme, L. G.; Miao, D.

1979-01-01

A NASA developed digital computer code for a Stirling engine, modelling the performance of a single cylinder rhombic drive ground performance unit (GPU), is presented and its predictions are compared to test results. The GPU engine incorporates eight regenerator/cooler units and the engine working space is modelled by thirteen control volumes. The model calculates indicated power and efficiency for a given engine speed, mean pressure, heater and expansion space metal temperatures and cooler water inlet temperature and flow rate. Comparison of predicted and observed powers implies that the reference pressure drop calculations underestimate actual pressure drop, possibly due to oil contamination in the regenerator/cooler units, methane contamination in the working gas or the underestimation of mechanical loss. For a working gas of hydrogen, the predicted values of brake power are from 0 to 6% higher than experimental values, and brake efficiency is 6 to 16% higher, while for helium the predicted brake power and efficiency are 2 to 15% higher than the experimental.

Sex-specific predictive power of 6-minute walk test in chronic heart failure is not enhanced using percent achieved of published reference equations.

PubMed

Frankenstein, Lutz; Zugck, Christian; Nelles, Manfred; Schellberg, Dieter; Katus, Hugo; Remppis, Andrew

2008-04-01

The 6-minute walk test (6MWT) is an established prognostic tool in chronic heart failure. The strong influence of height, weight, age, and sex on 6MWT distance may be accounted for by using percentage achieved of predicted value rather than uncorrected 6MWT values. The study included 1069 patients (862 men) with a mean age 55.2 +/- 11.7 years and mean left ventricular ejection fraction of 29% +/- 10%, attending the heart failure clinic of the University of Heidelberg between 1995 and 2005. The predictive power and accuracy of 6MWT and achieved percentage values according to all available published equations for mortality and mortality or transplant combined were tested separately for each sex. The percentage values varied largely between equations. For all equations, women in New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class I had higher values than men. Although the 6MWT significantly discriminated all NYHA classes for both sexes, only 1 equation discriminated all NYHA classes. No significant differences in the area under the receiver operating-characteristic curve were noted between achieved percentage values and 6MWT. Despite strong univariate significance, achieved percentage values did not retain multivariate significance. The 6MWT was independent from N-terminal brain natriuretic propeptide, NYHA, left ventricular ejection fraction, and peak oxygen uptake. We confirmed 6MWT to be a strong and independent risk predictor for both sexes. Because the prognostic power of 6MWT is not enhanced using percentage achieved of published reference equations, we suggest recalibration of these reference values rather than discarding this approach.

Accuracy of a Mouse Bioassay for the Diagnosis of Botulism in Horses.

PubMed

Johnson, A L; McAdams-Gallagher, S C; Aceto, H

2016-07-01

The laboratory diagnosis of botulism in horses traditionally has relied upon the mouse bioassay (MBA). The accuracy of this test for the diagnosis of botulism in horses is unknown. Our goal was to determine the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the MBA on laboratory-processed fecal and gastrointestinal samples for foals and adult horses. Cases included all horses with a final clinical diagnosis of botulism that were admitted between 1986 and 2011 and had MBA testing performed. Controls included horses without botulism that were admitted during the same time period and had MBA testing performed. Retrospective study. Horses suspected of having botulism had fecal or (less commonly) gastrointestinal content samples tested using MBA. For every hospitalized botulism suspect, control samples were obtained from ≥1 additional hospitalized horses not suspected to have botulism. One hundred and twenty-nine adult horses and 253 adult controls were identified. Overall sensitivity of the MBA was only 32% but specificity was 97%. Forty-three foal cases and 21 foal controls were evaluated; sensitivity of the MBA was 53% and specificity was 100%. Positive predictive value was substantially higher (100% for foals and 89% for adults) than negative predictive value (51% for foals and 67% for adults). Mouse bioassay has low sensitivity but high specificity for the diagnosis of botulism in horses. Positive results are highly suggestive of botulism but negative results do not exclude the diagnosis. Unaffected horses and foals rarely shed C. botulinum in their feces. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

The predictive value of respiratory function tests for non-invasive ventilation in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

Tilanus, T B M; Groothuis, J T; TenBroek-Pastoor, J M C; Feuth, T B; Heijdra, Y F; Slenders, J P L; Doorduin, J; Van Engelen, B G; Kampelmacher, M J; Raaphorst, J

2017-07-25

Non-invasive ventilation (NIV) improves survival and quality of life in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients. The timing of referral to a home ventilation service (HVS), which is in part based on respiratory function tests, has shown room for improvement. It is currently unknown which respiratory function test predicts an appropriate timing of the initiation of NIV. We analysed, retrospectively, serial data of five respiratory function tests: forced vital capacity (FVC), peak cough flow (PCF), maximum inspiratory and expiratory pressure (MIP and MEP) and sniff nasal inspiratory pressure (SNIP) in patients with ALS. Patients who had had at least one assessment of respiratory function and one visit at the HVS, were included. Our aim was to detect the test with the highest predictive value for the need for elective NIV in the following 3 months. We analysed time curves, currently used cut-off values for referral, and respiratory function test results between 'NIV indication' and 'no-NIV indication' patients. One hundred ten patients with ALS were included of whom 87 received an NIV indication; 11.5% had one assessment before receiving an NIV indication, 88.5% had two or more assessments. The NIV indication was based on complaints of hypoventilation and/or proven (nocturnal) hypercapnia. The five respiratory function tests showed a descending trend during disease progression, where SNIP showed the greatest decline within the latest 3 months before NIV indication (mean = -22%). PCF at the time of referral to the HVS significantly discriminated between the groups 'NIV-indication' and 'no NIV-indication yet' patients at the first HVS visit: 259 (±92) vs. 348 (±137) L/min, p = 0.019. PCF and SNIP showed the best predictive characteristics in terms of sensitivity. SNIP showed the greatest decline prior to NIV indication and PCF significantly differentiated 'NIV-indication' from 'no NIV-indication yet' patients with ALS. Currently used cut-off values might be adjusted and other respiratory function tests such as SNIP and PCF may become part of routine care in patients with ALS in order to avoid non-timely initiation of (non-invasive) ventilation.

Evaluation of surveillance case definition in the diagnosis of leptospirosis, using the Microscopic Agglutination Test: a validation study.

PubMed

Dassanayake, Dinesh L B; Wimalaratna, Harith; Agampodi, Suneth B; Liyanapathirana, Veranja C; Piyarathna, Thibbotumunuwe A C L; Goonapienuwala, Bimba L

2009-04-22

Leptospirosis is endemic in both urban and rural areas of Sri Lanka and there had been many out breaks in the recent past. This study was aimed at validating the leptospirosis surveillance case definition, using the Microscopic Agglutination Test (MAT). The study population consisted of patients with undiagnosed acute febrile illness who were admitted to the medical wards of the Teaching Hospital Kandy, from 1st July 2007 to 31st July 2008. The subjects were screened to diagnose leptospirosis according to the leptospirosis case definition. MAT was performed on blood samples taken from each patient on the 7th day of fever. Leptospirosis case definition was evaluated in regard to sensitivity, specificity and predictive values, using a MAT titre >or= 1:800 for confirming leptospirosis. A total of 123 patients were initially recruited of which 73 had clinical features compatible with the surveillance case definition. Out of the 73 only 57 had a positive MAT result (true positives) leaving 16 as false positives. Out of the 50 who didn't have clinical features compatible with the case definition 45 had a negative MAT as well (true negatives), therefore 5 were false negatives. Total number of MAT positives was 62 out of 123. According to these results the test sensitivity was 91.94%, specificity 73.77%, positive predictive value and negative predictive values were 78.08% and 90% respectively. Diagnostic accuracy of the test was 82.93%. This study confirms that the surveillance case definition has a very high sensitivity and negative predictive value with an average specificity in diagnosing leptospirosis, based on a MAT titre of >or= 1: 800.

Study on validity of a rapid diagnostic test kit versus light microscopy for malaria diagnosis in Ahmedabad city, India.

PubMed

Vyas, S; Puwar, B; Patel, V; Bhatt, G; Kulkarni, S; Fancy, M

2014-05-01

Light microscopy of blood smears for diagnosis of malaria in the field has several limitations, notably delays in diagnosis. This study in Ahmedabad in Gujarat State, India, evaluated the diagnostic performance of a rapid diagnostic test for malaria (SD Bioline Malaria Ag P.f/Pan) versus blood smear examination as the gold standard. All fever cases presenting at 13 urban health centres were subjected to rapid diagnostic testing and thick and thin blood smears. A total of 677 cases with fever were examined; 135 (20.0%) tested positive by rapid diagnostic test and 86 (12.7%) by blood smear. The sensitivity of the rapid diagnostic test for malaria was 98.8%, specificity was 91.5%, positive predictive value 63.0% and negative predictive value 99.8%. For detection of Plasmodium falciparum the sensitivity of rapid diagnostic test was 100% and specificity was 97.3%. The results show the acceptability of the rapid test as an alternative to light microscopy in the field setting.

Determination of Aerobic Power Through a Specific Test for Taekwondo - A Predictive Equation Model

PubMed Central

Louro, Hugo; Matias, Ricardo; Brito, João; Costa, Aldo M.

2016-01-01

Abstract Our aim was to verify the concurrent validity of a maximal taekwondo specific test (TST) to predict VO2max through an explanatory model. Seventeen elite male taekwondo athletes (age: 17.59 ± 4.34 years; body height: 1.72 ± 6.5 m; body mass: 61.3 ± 8.7 kg) performed two graded maximal exercise tests on different days: a 20 m multistage shuttle run test (SRT) and an incremental TST. We recorded test time, VO2max, ventilation, a heart rate and time to exhaustion. Significant differences were found between observed and estimated VO2max values [F (2, 16) = 5.77, p < 0.01]; post-hoc subgroup analysis revealed the existence of significant differences (p = 0.04) between the estimated VO2max value in the SRT and the observed value recorded in the TST (58.4 ± 6.4 ml/kg/min and 52.6 ± 5.2 ml/kg/min, respectively). Our analysis also revealed a moderate correlation between both testing protocols regarding VO2max (r = 0.70; p = 0.005), test time (r = 0.77; p = 0.02) and ventilation (r = 0.69; p = 0.03). There was no proportional bias in the mean difference (t = -1.04; p = 0.313), and there was a level of agreement between both tests. An equation/model was used to estimate VO2max during the TST based on the mean heart rate, test time, body height and mass, which explained 74.3% of the observed VO2max variability. A moderate correlation was found between the observed and predicted VO2max values in the taekwondo TST (r = 0.74, p = 0.001). Our results suggest that an incremental specific test estimates VO2max of elite taekwondo athletes with acceptable concurrent validity. PMID:28149417

Comparison between the two-step and the three-step algorithms for the detection of toxigenic Clostridium difficile.

PubMed

Qutub, M O; AlBaz, N; Hawken, P; Anoos, A

2011-01-01

To evaluate usefulness of applying either the two-step algorithm (Ag-EIAs and CCNA) or the three-step algorithm (all three assays) for better confirmation of toxigenic Clostridium difficile. The antigen enzyme immunoassays (Ag-EIAs) can accurately identify the glutamate dehydrogenase antigen of toxigenic and nontoxigenic Clostridium difficile. Therefore, it is used in combination with a toxin-detecting assay [cell line culture neutralization assay (CCNA), or the enzyme immunoassays for toxins A and B (TOX-A/BII EIA)] to provide specific evidence of Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhoea. A total of 151 nonformed stool specimens were tested by Ag-EIAs, TOX-A/BII EIA, and CCNA. All tests were performed according to the manufacturer's instructions and the results of Ag-EIAs and TOX-A/BII EIA were read using a spectrophotometer at a wavelength of 450 nm. A total of 61 (40.7%), 38 (25.3%), and 52 (34.7%) specimens tested positive with Ag-EIA, TOX-A/BII EIA, and CCNA, respectively. Overall, the sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value for Ag-EIA were 94%, 87%, 96.6%, and 80.3%, respectively. Whereas for TOX-A/BII EIA, the sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value were 73.1%, 100%, 87.5%, and 100%, respectively. With the two-step algorithm, all 61 Ag-EIAs-positive cases required 2 days for confirmation. With the three-step algorithm, 37 (60.7%) cases were reported immediately, and the remaining 24 (39.3%) required further testing by CCNA. By applying the two-step algorithm, the workload and cost could be reduced by 28.2% compared with the three-step algorithm. The two-step algorithm is the most practical for accurately detecting toxigenic Clostridium difficile, but it is time-consuming.

Exercise testing in children with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome: what is its value?

PubMed

Dalili, M; Vahidshahi, K; Aarabi-Moghaddam, M Y; Rao, J Y; Brugada, P

2014-10-01

This study was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of exercise testing for predicting accessory pathway characteristics in children with Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome. The study enrolled 37 children with WPW syndrome and candidates for invasive electrophysiologic study (EPS). Exercise testing was performed for all the study participants before the invasive study. Data from the invasive EPS were compared with findings from the exercise testing. The sudden disappearance of the delta (Δ) wave was seen in 10 cases (27 %). No significant correlation was found between the Δ wave disappearance and the antegrade effective refractory period of the accessory pathway (AERP-AP) or the shortest pre-excited RR interval (SPERRI). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of Δ wave disappearance, based on AERP-AP as gold standard, were respectively 29.4, 80, 71.4, and 40 %. The corresponding values with SPERRI as the gold standard were respectively 23.8, 71.4, 71.4 and 23.8 %. Exercise testing has a medium to low rate of accuracy in detecting low-risk WPW syndrome patients in the pediatric age group.

[Rapid determination of fatty acids in soybean oils by transmission reflection-near infrared spectroscopy].

PubMed

Song, Tao; Zhang, Feng-ping; Liu, Yao-min; Wu, Zong-wen; Suo, You-rui

2012-08-01

In the present research, a novel method was established for determination of five fatty acids in soybean oil by transmission reflection-near infrared spectroscopy. The optimum conditions of mathematics model of five components (C16:0, C18:0, C18:1, C18:2 and C18:3) were studied, including the sample set selection, chemical value analysis, the detection methods and condition. Chemical value was analyzed by gas chromatography. One hundred fifty eight samples were selected, 138 for modeling set, 10 for testing set and 10 for unknown sample set. All samples were placed in sample pools and scanned by transmission reflection-near infrared spectrum after sonicleaning for 10 minute. The 1100-2500 nm spectral region was analyzed. The acquisition interval was 2 nm. Modified partial least square method was chosen for calibration mode creating. Result demonstrated that the 1-VR of five fatty acids between the reference value of the modeling sample set and the near infrared spectrum predictive value were 0.8839, 0.5830, 0.9001, 0.9776 and 0.9596, respectively. And the SECV of five fatty acids between the reference value of the modeling sample set and the near infrared spectrum predictive value were 0.42, 0.29, 0.83, 0.46 and 0.21, respectively. The standard error of the calibration (SECV) of five fatty acids between the reference value of testing sample set and the near infrared spectrum predictive value were 0.891, 0.790, 0.900, 0.976 and 0.942, respectively. It was proved that the near infrared spectrum predictive value was linear with chemical value and the mathematical model established for fatty acids of soybean oil was feasible. For validation, 10 unknown samples were selected for analysis by near infrared spectrum. The result demonstrated that the relative standard deviation between predict value and chemical value was less than 5.50%. That was to say that transmission reflection-near infrared spectroscopy had a good veracity in analysis of fatty acids of soybean oil.

Validity of suspected alcohol and drug violations in aviation employees.

PubMed

Li, Guohua; Brady, Joanne E; DiMaggio, Charles; Baker, Susan P; Rebok, George W

2010-10-01

In the United States, transportation employees who are suspected of using alcohol and drugs are subject to reasonable-cause testing. This study aims to assess the validity of suspected alcohol and drug violations in aviation employees. Using reasonable-cause testing and random testing data from the Federal Aviation Administration for the years 1995-2005, we calculated the positive predictive value (PPV) and positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of suspected alcohol and drug violations. The true status of violations was based on testing results, with an alcohol violation being defined as a blood alcohol concentration of ≥0.04 mg/dl and a drug violation as a test positive for marijuana, cocaine, amphetamines, phencyclidine or opiates. During the 11-year study period, a total of 2284 alcohol tests and 2015 drug tests were performed under the reasonable-cause testing program. The PPV was 37.7% [95% confidence interval (CI), 35.7-39.7%] for suspected alcohol violations and 12.6% (95% CI, 11.2-14.1%) for suspected drug violations. Random testing revealed an overall prevalence of 0.09% for alcohol violations and 0.6% for drug violations. The LR+ was 653.6 (95% CI, 581.7-734.3) for suspected alcohol violations and 22.5 (95% CI, 19.6-25.7) for suspected drug violations. The discriminative power of reasonable-cause testing suggests that, despite its limited positive predictive value, physical and behavioral observation represents an efficient screening method for detecting alcohol and drug violations. The limited positive predictive value of reasonable-cause testing in aviation employees is due in part to the very low prevalence of alcohol and drug violations. © 2010 The Authors, Addiction © 2010 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Performance of rapid tests and algorithms for HIV screening in Abidjan, Ivory Coast.

PubMed

Loukou, Y G; Cabran, M A; Yessé, Zinzendorf Nanga; Adouko, B M O; Lathro, S J; Agbessi-Kouassi, K B T

2014-01-01

Seven rapid diagnosis tests (RDTs) of HIV were evaluated by a panel group who collected serum samples from patients in Abidjan (HIV-1 = 203, HIV-2 = 25, HIV-dual = 25, HIV = 305). Kit performances were recorded after the reference techniques (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay). The following RDTs showed a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity higher than 99%: Determine, Oraquick, SD Bioline, BCP, and Stat-Pak. These kits were used to establish infection screening strategies. The combination with 2 or 3 of these tests in series or parallel algorithms showed that series combinations with 2 tests (Oraquick and Bioline) and 3 tests (Determine, BCP, and Stat-Pak) gave the best performances (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 100%). However, the combination with 2 tests appeared to be more onerous than the combination with 3 tests. The combination with Determine, BCP, and Stat-Pak tests serving as a tiebreaker could be an alternative to the HIV/AIDS serological screening in Abidjan.

Validity of Suspected Alcohol and Drug Violations in Aviation Employees

PubMed Central

Li, Guohua; Brady, Joanne E.; DiMaggio, Charles; Baker, Susan P.; Rebok, George W.

2012-01-01

Introduction In the United States, transportation employees who are suspected of using alcohol and drugs are subject to reasonable-cause testing. This study aims to assess the validity of suspected alcohol and drug violations in aviation employees. Methods Using reasonable-cause testing and random testing data from the Federal Aviation Administration for the years 1995 through 2005, we calculated the positive predictive value (PPV) and positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of suspected alcohol and drug violations. The true status of violations was based on testing results, with an alcohol violation being defined as a blood alcohol concentration of ≥40 mg/dL and a drug violation as a test positive for marijuana, cocaine, amphetamines, phencyclidine, or opiates. Results During the 11-year study period, a total of 2,284 alcohol tests and 2,015 drug tests were performed under the reasonable-cause testing program. The PPV was 37.7% [95% confidence interval (CI), 35.7–39.7%] for suspected alcohol violations and 12.6% (95% CI, 11.2–14.1%) for suspected drug violations. Random testing revealed an overall prevalence of 0.09% (601/649,796) for alcohol violations and 0.6% (7,211/1,130,922) for drug violations. The LR+ was 653.6 (95% CI, 581.7–734.3) for suspected alcohol violations and 22.5 (95% CI, 19.6–25.7) for suspected drug violations. Discussion The discriminative power of reasonable-cause testing suggests that, despite its limited positive predictive value, physical and behavioral observation represents an efficient screening method for detecting alcohol and drug violations. The limited positive predictive value of reasonable-cause testing in aviation employees is due in part to the very low prevalence of alcohol and drug violations. PMID:20712820

Suspected acute coronary syndrome in the emergency room: Limited added value of heart type fatty acid binding protein point of care or ELISA tests: The FAME-ER (Fatty Acid binding protein in Myocardial infarction Evaluation in the Emergency Room) study.

PubMed

Bank, Ingrid Em; Dekker, Marieke S; Hoes, Arno W; Zuithoff, Nicolaas Pa; Verheggen, Peter Whm; de Vrey, Evelyn A; Wildbergh, Thierry X; Timmers, Leo; de Kleijn, Dominique Pv; Glatz, Jan Fc; Mosterd, Arend

2016-08-01

Timely recognition of acute coronary syndrome remains a challenge as many biomarkers, including troponin, remain negative in the first hours following the onset of chest pain. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of heart-type fatty acid binding protein (H-FABP), a cardiac biomarker with potential value immediately post symptom onset. Prospective monocentre diagnostic accuracy study of H-FABP bedside point of care (CardioDetect®) and ELISA tests in acute coronary syndrome suspected patients presenting within 24 hours of symptom onset to the emergency department, in addition to clinical findings, electrocardiography and the currently recommended biomarker high sensitivity troponin-T (hs-cTnT). The final diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome was adjudicated by two independent cardiologists, blinded to H-FABP results. Acute coronary syndrome was diagnosed in 149 (32.9%) of 453 unselected patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome (56% men, mean age 62.6 years). Negative predictive values were similar for H-FABP point of care and ELISA tests (79% vs. 78% respectively), but inferior to initial hs-cTnT (negative predictive value 86%). The addition of H-FABP point of care results to hs-cTnT increased the negative predictive value to 89%. In a multivariable logistic regression model, H-FABP point of care and ELISA tests yielded relevant diagnostic information in addition to clinical findings and ECG (likelihood ratio test p<0.001) and increased area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC; 0.82 vs. 0.84 and 0.84). This added value attenuated, however, after inclusion of hs-cTnT in the diagnostic model (AUC 0.88). In patients suspected of acute coronary syndrome presenting to the emergency department, H-FABP testing improves diagnostic accuracy in addition to clinical findings and electrocardiography. H-FABP, however, has no additional diagnostic value when hs-cTnT measurements are also available. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Context-dependent preferences in starlings: linking ecology, foraging and choice.

PubMed

Vasconcelos, Marco; Monteiro, Tiago; Kacelnik, Alex

2013-01-01

Foraging animals typically encounter opportunities that they either pursue or skip, but occasionally meet several alternatives simultaneously. Behavioural ecologists predict preferences using absolute properties of each option, while decision theorists focus on relative evaluations at the time of choice. We use European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) to integrate ecological reasoning with decision models, linking and testing hypotheses for value acquisition and choice mechanism. We hypothesise that options' values depend jointly on absolute attributes, learning context, and subject's state. In simultaneous choices, preference could result either from comparing subjective values using deliberation time, or from processing each alternative independently, without relative comparisons. The combination of the value acquisition hypothesis and independent processing at choice time has been called the Sequential Choice Model. We test this model with options equated in absolute properties to exclude the possibility of preference being built at the time of choice. Starlings learned to obtain food by responding to four stimuli in two contexts. In context [AB], they encountered options A5 or B10 in random alternation; in context [CD], they met C10 or D20. Delay to food is denoted, in seconds, by the suffixes. Observed latency to respond (Li) to each option alone (our measure of value) ranked thus: LA≈LC

Modeling of Compressive Strength for Self-Consolidating High-Strength Concrete Incorporating Palm Oil Fuel Ash

PubMed Central

Safiuddin, Md.; Raman, Sudharshan N.; Abdus Salam, Md.; Jumaat, Mohd. Zamin

2016-01-01

Modeling is a very useful method for the performance prediction of concrete. Most of the models available in literature are related to the compressive strength because it is a major mechanical property used in concrete design. Many attempts were taken to develop suitable mathematical models for the prediction of compressive strength of different concretes, but not for self-consolidating high-strength concrete (SCHSC) containing palm oil fuel ash (POFA). The present study has used artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict the compressive strength of SCHSC incorporating POFA. The ANN model has been developed and validated in this research using the mix proportioning and experimental strength data of 20 different SCHSC mixes. Seventy percent (70%) of the data were used to carry out the training of the ANN model. The remaining 30% of the data were used for testing the model. The training of the ANN model was stopped when the root mean square error (RMSE) and the percentage of good patterns was 0.001 and ≈100%, respectively. The predicted compressive strength values obtained from the trained ANN model were much closer to the experimental values of compressive strength. The coefficient of determination (R2) for the relationship between the predicted and experimental compressive strengths was 0.9486, which shows the higher degree of accuracy of the network pattern. Furthermore, the predicted compressive strength was found very close to the experimental compressive strength during the testing process of the ANN model. The absolute and percentage relative errors in the testing process were significantly low with a mean value of 1.74 MPa and 3.13%, respectively, which indicated that the compressive strength of SCHSC including POFA can be efficiently predicted by the ANN. PMID:28773520

Modeling of Compressive Strength for Self-Consolidating High-Strength Concrete Incorporating Palm Oil Fuel Ash.

PubMed

Safiuddin, Md; Raman, Sudharshan N; Abdus Salam, Md; Jumaat, Mohd Zamin

2016-05-20

Modeling is a very useful method for the performance prediction of concrete. Most of the models available in literature are related to the compressive strength because it is a major mechanical property used in concrete design. Many attempts were taken to develop suitable mathematical models for the prediction of compressive strength of different concretes, but not for self-consolidating high-strength concrete (SCHSC) containing palm oil fuel ash (POFA). The present study has used artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict the compressive strength of SCHSC incorporating POFA. The ANN model has been developed and validated in this research using the mix proportioning and experimental strength data of 20 different SCHSC mixes. Seventy percent (70%) of the data were used to carry out the training of the ANN model. The remaining 30% of the data were used for testing the model. The training of the ANN model was stopped when the root mean square error (RMSE) and the percentage of good patterns was 0.001 and ≈100%, respectively. The predicted compressive strength values obtained from the trained ANN model were much closer to the experimental values of compressive strength. The coefficient of determination ( R ²) for the relationship between the predicted and experimental compressive strengths was 0.9486, which shows the higher degree of accuracy of the network pattern. Furthermore, the predicted compressive strength was found very close to the experimental compressive strength during the testing process of the ANN model. The absolute and percentage relative errors in the testing process were significantly low with a mean value of 1.74 MPa and 3.13%, respectively, which indicated that the compressive strength of SCHSC including POFA can be efficiently predicted by the ANN.

Comprehensive analysis of sperm DNA fragmentation by five different assays: TUNEL assay, SCSA, SCD test and alkaline and neutral Comet assay.

PubMed

Ribas-Maynou, J; García-Peiró, A; Fernández-Encinas, A; Abad, C; Amengual, M J; Prada, E; Navarro, J; Benet, J

2013-09-01

Sperm DNA fragmentation (SDF) is becoming an important test to assess male infertility. Several different tests are available, but no consensus has yet been reached as to which tests are most predictive of infertility. Few publications have reported a comprehensive analysis comparing these methods within the same population. The objective of this study was to analyze the differences between the five most common methodologies, to study their correlations and to establish their cut-off values, sensitivity and specificity in predicting male infertility. We found differences in SDF between fertile donors and infertile patients in TUNEL, SCSA, SCD and alkaline Comet assays, but none with the neutral Comet assay. The alkaline COMET assay was the best in predicting male infertility followed by TUNEL, SCD and SCSA, whereas the neutral COMET assay had no predictive power. For our patient population, threshold values for infertility were 20.05% for TUNEL assay, 18.90% for SCSA, 22.75% for the SCD test, 45.37% for alkaline Comet and 34.37% for neutral Comet. This work establishes in a comprehensive study that the all techniques except neutral Comet are useful to distinguish fertile and infertile men. © 2013 American Society of Andrology and European Academy of Andrology.

Risk factors influencing the early outcome results after laparoscopic repair of perforated duodenal ulcer and their predictive value.

PubMed

Lunevicius, Raimundas; Morkevicius, Matas

2005-09-01

Clear patient selection criteria and indications for laparoscopic repair of perforated duodenal ulcers are necessary. The aims of our study are to report the early outcome results after operation and to define the predictive values of risk factors influencing conversion rate and genesis of suture leakage. Sixty nonrandomly selected patients operated on laparoscopically in a tertiary care academic center between October 1996 and May 2004 for perforated duodenal ulcers were retrospectively analyzed. The primary outcome measures included the duration of symptoms, shock, underlying medical illness, ulcer size, age, Boey score, and the collective predictive value of these variables for conversion and suture leakage rates. Laparoscopic repair was completed in 46 patients (76.7%). Fourteen patients (23.3%) underwent conversion to open repair. Eight patients (13.3%) had postoperative complications. Suture leakage was confirmed in four patients (6.7%). Hospital stay was 7.8+/-5.3 days. There was no mortality. Patients with an ulcer perforation size of >8 mm had a significantly increased risk for conversion to open repair (p<0.05): positive predictive value (PPV) 75%, sensitivity 27%, specificity 98%, and negative predictive value (NPV) 85%. The significance of ulcer perforation size was confirmed by a stepwise logistic regression test (p=0.0201). All patients who developed suture leakage had acute symptoms for >9 h preoperatively (p<0.001): PPV 31%, specificity 84%, sensitivity 100%, and NPV 100%. Conversions happened with surgeons whose previous experience involved 1.8+/-2.3 cases compared to 3.9+/-2.9 cases in successful laparoscopic repair (p=0.039, t test). Ulcer perforation size of >8 mm is a significant risk factor influencing the conversion rate. An increase in the suture leakage rate is predicted by delayed presentation of >9 h.

Predictive value of autoantibody testing for validating self-reported diagnoses of rheumatoid arthritis in the Women's Health Initiative.

PubMed

Walitt, Brian; Mackey, Rachel; Kuller, Lewis; Deane, Kevin D; Robinson, William; Holers, V Michael; Chang, Yue-Fang; Moreland, Larry

2013-05-01

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) research using large databases is limited by insufficient case validity. Of 161,808 postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative, 15,691 (10.2%) reported having RA, far higher than the expected 1% population prevalence. Since chart review for confirmation of an RA diagnosis is impractical in large cohort studies, the current study (2009-2011) tested the ability of baseline serum measurements of rheumatoid factor and anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies, second-generation assay (anti-CCP2), to identify physician-validated RA among the chart-review study participants with self-reported RA (n = 286). Anti-CCP2 positivity had the highest positive predictive value (PPV) (80.0%), and rheumatoid factor positivity the lowest (44.6%). Together, use of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and anti-CCP2 positivity increased PPV to 100% but excluded all seronegative cases (approximately 15% of all RA cases). Case definitions inclusive of seronegative cases had PPVs between 59.6% and 63.6%. False-negative results were minimized in these test definitions, as evidenced by negative predictive values of approximately 90%. Serological measurements, particularly measurement of anti-CCP2, improved the test characteristics of RA case definitions in the Women's Health Initiative.

The effectiveness of breath carbon monoxide analyzer in screening for environmental tobacco smoke exposure in Saudi pregnant women.

PubMed

Alzeidan, Rasmieh Ayed; Mandil, Ahmed Amin; Fayed, Amel Ahmed; Wahabi, Hayfaa Abdulmajeed

2013-10-01

Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) has harmful effects on the pregnancy outcomes similar to those observed in actively smoking pregnant women. The aim of this study was to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of the breath carbon monoxide (BCO) analysis in the assessment of smoking status among Saudi pregnant women, including ETS exposure compared to self-reported tobacco smoke exposure. A cross-sectional design was used during January 2012, 560 pregnant women, irrespective of their gestational age, agreed to undergo BCO testing and completed the data collection sheet for the study. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated to compare the BCO test with self-reported exposure to ETS. Of the study population 151 (27%) women self-reported ETS exposure during the index pregnancy, 409 (73%) self-reported non-exposure. Sensitivity of the test was 32.5% (95% CI; 25.2-40.3%), the Specificity was much higher at 69.2% (95% CI; 64.4-73.5%), the positive predictive value was 28% (95% CI, 21.9-35.1%), and the negative predictive value was 73.5% (95% CI; 68.9-77.7%). The BCO test is an ineffective tool to detect the level of ETS exposure among Saudi pregnant women.

Direct detection of methicillin resistance in Staphylococcus aureus in blood culture broth by use of a penicillin binding protein 2a latex agglutination test.

PubMed

Qian, Qinfang; Venkataraman, Lata; Kirby, James E; Gold, Howard S; Yamazumi, Toshiaki

2010-04-01

We studied the utility of performing a penicillin binding protein 2a latex agglutination (PBP-LA) assay directly on Bactec blood culture broth samples containing Staphylococcus aureus to rapidly detect methicillin resistance. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of this method were 94.1%, 97.5%, 98%, and 92.9%, respectively.

Polar body based aneuploidy screening is poorly predictive of embryo ploidy and reproductive potential.

PubMed

Salvaggio, C N; Forman, E J; Garnsey, H M; Treff, N R; Scott, R T

2014-09-01

Polar body (polar body) biopsy represents one possible solution to performing comprehensive chromosome screening (CCS). This study adds to what is known about the predictive value of polar body based testing for the genetic status of the resulting embryo, but more importantly, provides the first evaluation of the predictive value for actual clinical outcomes after embryo transfer. SNP array was performed on first polar body, second polar body, and either a blastomere or trophectoderm biopsy, or the entire arrested embryo. Concordance of the polar body-based prediction with the observed diagnoses in the embryos was assessed. In addition, the predictive value of the polar body -based diagnosis for the specific clinical outcome of transferred embryos was evaluated through the use of DNA fingerprinting to track individual embryos. There were 459 embryos analyzed from 96 patients with a mean maternal age of 35.3. The polar body-based predictive value for the embryo based diagnosis was 70.3%. The blastocyst implantation predictive value of a euploid trophectoderm was higher than from euploid polar bodies (51% versus 40%). The cleavage stage embryo implantation predictive value of a euploid blastomere was also higher than from euploid polar bodies (31% versus 22%). Polar body based aneuploidy screening results were less predictive of actual clinical outcomes than direct embryo assessment and may not be adequate to improve sustained implantation rates. In nearly one-third of cases the polar body based analysis failed to predict the ploidy of the embryo. This imprecision may hinder efforts for polar body based CCS to improve IVF clinical outcomes.

Theory versus experiment for the rotordynamic coefficients of labyrinth gas seals. II - A comparison to experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Childs, D. W.; Scharrer, J. K.

1987-01-01

An experimental test facility is used to measure the leakage and rotordynamic coefficients of teeth-on-rotor and teeth-on-stator labyrinth gas seals. The test results are presented along with the theoretically predicted values for the two seal configurations at three different radial clearances and shaft speeds to 16,000 cpm. The test results show that the theory accurately predicts the cross-coupled stiffness for both seal configurations and shows improvement in the prediction of the direct damping for the teeth-on-rotor seal. The theory fails to predict a decrease in the direct damping coefficient for an increase in the radial clearance for the teeth-on-stator seal.

Development of procedures for calculating stiffness and damping of elastomers in engineering applications. Part 5: Elastomer performance limits and the design and test of an elastomer damper

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tecza, J. A.; Darlow, M. S.; Smalley, A. J.

1979-01-01

Tests were performed on elastomer specimens of the material polybutadiene to determine the performance limitations imposed by strain, temperature, and frequency. Three specimens were tested: a shear specimen, a compression specimen, and a second compression specimen in which thermocouples were embedded in the elastomer buttons. Stiffness and damping were determined from all tests, and internal temperatures were recorded for the instrumented compression specimen. Measured results are presented together with comparisons between predictions of a thermo-viscoelastic analysis and the measured results. Dampers of polybutadiene and Viton were designed, built, and tested. Vibration measurements were made and sensitivity of vibration to change in unbalance was also determined. Values for log decrement were extracted from the synchronous response curves. Comparisons were made between measured sensitivity to unbalance and log decrement and predicted values for these quantities.

Comparison of analysis and experiment for dynamics of low-contact-ratio spur gears

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Rebbechi, Brian; Zakrajsek, James J.; Townsend, Dennis P.; Lin, Hsiang Hsi

1991-01-01

Low-contact-ratio spur gears were tested in NASA gear-noise-rig to study gear dynamics including dynamic load, tooth bending stress, vibration, and noise. The experimental results were compared with a NASA gear dynamics code to validate the code as a design tool for predicting transmission vibration and noise. Analytical predictions and experimental data for gear-tooth dynamic loads and tooth-root bending stress were compared at 28 operating conditions. Strain gage data were used to compute the normal load between meshing teeth and the bending stress at the tooth root for direct comparison with the analysis. The computed and measured waveforms for dynamic load and stress were compared for several test conditions. These are very similar in shape, which means the analysis successfully simulates the physical behavior of the test gears. The predicted peak value of the dynamic load agrees with the measurement results within an average error of 4.9 percent except at low-torque, high-speed conditions. Predictions of peak dynamic root stress are generally within 10 to 15 percent of the measured values.

Presymptomatic electrophysiological tests predict clinical onset and survival in SOD1(G93A) ALS mice.

PubMed

Mancuso, Renzo; Osta, Rosario; Navarro, Xavier

2014-12-01

We assessed the predictive value of electrophysiological tests as a marker of clinical disease onset and survival in superoxide-dismutase 1 (SOD1)(G93A) mice. We evaluated the accuracy of electrophysiological tests in differentiating transgenic versus wild-type mice. We made a correlation analysis of electrophysiological parameters and the onset of symptoms, survival, and number of spinal motoneurons. Presymptomatic electrophysiological tests show great accuracy in differentiating transgenic versus wild-type mice, with the most sensitive parameter being the tibialis anterior compound muscle action potential (CMAP) amplitude. The CMAP amplitude at age 10 weeks correlated significantly with clinical disease onset and survival. Electrophysiological tests increased their survival prediction accuracy when evaluated at later stages of the disease and also predicted the amount of lumbar spinal motoneuron preservation. Electrophysiological tests predict clinical disease onset, survival, and spinal motoneuron preservation in SOD1(G93A) mice. This is a methodological improvement for preclinical studies. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Suitability of the isolated chicken eye test for classification of extreme pH detergents and cleaning products.

PubMed

Cazelle, Elodie; Eskes, Chantra; Hermann, Martina; Jones, Penny; McNamee, Pauline; Prinsen, Menk; Taylor, Hannah; Wijnands, Marcel V W

2015-04-01

A.I.S.E. investigated the suitability of the regulatory adopted ICE in vitro test method (OECD TG 438) with or without histopathology to identify detergent and cleaning formulations having extreme pH that require classification as EU CLP/UN GHS Category 1. To this aim, 18 extreme pH detergent and cleaning formulations were tested covering both alkaline and acidic extreme pHs. The ICE standard test method following OECD Test Guideline 438 showed good concordance with in vivo classification (83%) and good and balanced specificity and sensitivity values (83%) which are in line with the performances of currently adopted in vitro test guidelines, confirming its suitability to identify Category 1 extreme pH detergent and cleaning products. In contrast to previous findings obtained with non-extreme pH formulations, the use of histopathology did not improve the sensitivity of the assay whilst it strongly decreased its specificity for the extreme pH formulations. Furthermore, use of non-testing prediction rules for classification showed poor concordance values (33% for the extreme pH rule and 61% for the EU CLP additivity approach) with high rates of over-prediction (100% for the extreme pH rule and 50% for the additivity approach), indicating that these non-testing prediction rules are not suitable to predict Category 1 hazards of extreme pH detergent and cleaning formulations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Updating the Skating Multistage Aerobic Test and Correction for V[Combining Dot Above]O2max Prediction Using a New Skating Economy Index in Elite Youth Ice Hockey Players.

PubMed

Allisse, Maxime; Bui, Hung Tien; Léger, Luc; Comtois, Alain-Steve; Leone, Mario

2018-05-07

Allisse, M, Bui, HT, Léger, L, Comtois, A-S, and Leone, M. Updating the skating multistage aerobic test and correction for V[Combining Dot Above]O2max prediction using a new skating economy index in elite youth ice hockey players. J Strength Cond Res XX(X): 000-000, 2018-A number of field tests, including the skating multistage aerobic test (SMAT), have been developed to predict V[Combining Dot Above]O2max in ice hockey players. The SMAT, like most field tests, assumes that participants who reach a given stage have the same oxygen uptake, which is not usually true. Thus, the objectives of this research are to update the V[Combining Dot Above]O2 values during the SMAT using a portable breath-by-breath metabolic analyzer and to propose a simple index of skating economy to improve the prediction of oxygen uptake. Twenty-six elite hockey players (age 15.8 ± 1.3 years) participated in this study. The oxygen uptake was assessed using a portable metabolic analyzer (K4b) during an on-ice maximal shuttle skate test. To develop an index of skating economy called the skating stride index (SSI), the number of skating strides was compiled for each stage of the test. The SMAT enabled the prediction of the V[Combining Dot Above]O2max (ml·kg·min) from the maximal velocity (m·s) and the SSI (skating strides·kg) using the following regression equation: V[Combining Dot Above]O2max = (14.94 × maximal velocity) + (3.68 × SSI) - 24.98 (r = 0.95, SEE = 1.92). This research allowed for the update of the oxygen uptake values of the SMAT and proposed a simple measure of skating efficiency for a more accurate evaluation of V[Combining Dot Above]O2max in elite youth hockey players. By comparing the highest and lowest observed SSI scores in our sample, it was noted that the V[Combining Dot Above]O2 values can vary by up to 5 ml·kg·min. Our results suggest that skating economy should be included in the prediction of V[Combining Dot Above]O2max to improve prediction accuracy.

The sensitivity and the specifity of rapid antigen test in streptococcal upper respiratory tract infections.

PubMed

Gurol, Yesim; Akan, Hulya; Izbirak, Guldal; Tekkanat, Zuhal Tazegun; Gunduz, Tehlile Silem; Hayran, Osman; Yilmaz, Gulden

2010-06-01

It is aimed to detect the sensitivity and specificity of rapid antigen detection of group A beta hemolytic streptococci from throat specimen compared with throat culture. The other goal of the study is to help in giving clinical decisions in upper respiratory tract infections according to the age group, by detection of sensitivity and positive predictive values of the rapid tests and throat cultures. Rapid antigen detection and throat culture results for group A beta hemolytic streptococci from outpatients attending to our university hospital between the first of November 2005 and 31st of December 2008 were evaluated retrospectively. Throat samples were obtained by swabs from the throat and transported in the Stuart medium and Quickvue Strep A [Quidel, San Diego, USA] cassette test was applied and for culture, specimen was inoculated on 5% blood sheep agar and identified according to bacitracin and trimethoprim-sulphametaxazole susceptibility from beta hemolytic colonies. During the dates between the first of November 2005 and 31st of December 2008, from 453 patients both rapid antigen detection and throat culture were evaluated. Rapid antigen detection sensitivity and specificity were found to be 64.6% and 96.79%, respectively. The positive predictive value was 80.95% whereas negative predictive value was 92.82%. Kappa index was 0.91. When the results were evaluated according to the age groups, the sensitivity and the positive predictive value of rapid antigen detection in children were 70%, 90.3% and in adults 59.4%, 70.4%. When bacterial infection is concerned to prevent unnecessary antibiotic use, rapid streptococcal antigen test (RSAT) is a reliable method to begin immediate treatment. To get the maximum sensitivity of RSAT, the specimen collection technique used and education of the health care workers is important. While giving clinical decision, it must be taken into consideration that the sensitivity and the positive predictive value of the RSAT is quite lower in adult age group than in pediatric age group. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Protecting Astronaut Health at First Entry into Vehicles Visiting the international Space Station: Insights from Whole-Module Offgas Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyers, Valerie

2014-01-01

NASA has accumulated considerable experience in offgas testing of whole modules prior to their docking with the International Space Station (ISS). Since 1998, the Space Toxicology Office has performed offgas testing of the Lab module, both MPLM modules, US Airlock, Node 1, Node 2, Node 3, ATV1, HTV1, and three commercial vehicles. The goal of these tests is twofold: first, to protect the crew from adverse health effects of accumulated volatile pollutants when they first enter the module on orbit, and secondly, to determine the additional pollutant load that the ISS air revitalization systems must handle. In order to predict the amount of accumulated pollutants, the module is sealed for at least 1/5th the worst-case time interval that could occur between the last clean air purge and final hatch closure on the ground and the crew's first entry on orbit. This time can range from a few days to a few months. Typically, triplicate samples are taken at pre-planned times throughout the test. Samples are then analyzed by gas chromatography and mass spectrometry, and the rate of accumulation of pollutants is then extrapolated over time. The analytical values are indexed against 7-day spacecraft maximum allowable concentrations (SMACs) to provide a prediction of the total toxicity value (T-value) at the time of first entry. This T-value and the toxicological effects of specific pollutants that contribute most to the overall toxicity are then used to guide first entry operations. Finally, results are compared to first entry samples collected on orbit to determine the predictive ability of the ground-based offgas test.

Longitudinally Jointed Edge-wise Compression Honeycomb Composite Sandwich Coupon Testing and FE Analysis: Three Methods of Strain Measurement, and Comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farrokh, Babak; AbdulRahim, Nur Aida; Segal, Ken; Fan, Terry; Jones, Justin; Hodges, Ken; Mashni, Noah; Garg, Naman; Sang, Alex; Gifford, Dawn;

Shelf life prediction of canned fried-rice using accelerated shelf life testing (ASLT) arrhenius method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurniadi, M.; Bintang, R.; Kusumaningrum, A.; Nursiwi, A.; Nurhikmat, A.; Susanto, A.; Angwar, M.; Triwiyono; Frediansyah, A.

2017-12-01

Research on shelf-life prediction of canned fried rice using Accelerated Shelf-life Test (ASLT) of Arrhenius model has been conducted. The aim of this research to predict shelf life of canned-fried rice products. Lethality value of 121°C for 15 and 20 minutes and Total Plate count methods are used to determine time and temperatures of sterilization process.Various storage temperatures of ASLT Arrhenius method were 35, 45 and 55°C during 35days. Rancidity is one of the derivation quality of canned fried rice. In this research, sample of canned fried rice is tested using rancidity value (TBA). TBA value was used as parameter which be measured once a week periodically. The use of can for fried rice without any chemical preservative is one of the advantage of the product, additionaly the use of physicalproperties such as temperature and pressure during its process can extend the shelf life and reduce the microbial contamination. The same research has never done before for fried rice as ready to eat meal. The result showed that the optimum conditions of sterilization process were 121°C,15 minutes with total plate count number of 9,3 × 101 CFU/ml. Lethality value of canned fried rice at 121°C,15 minutes was 3.63 minutes. The calculated Shelf-life of canned fried rice using Accelerated Shelf-life Test (ASLT) of Arrhenius method was 10.3 months.

Research on dynamic creep strain and settlement prediction under the subway vibration loading.

PubMed

Luo, Junhui; Miao, Linchang

2016-01-01

This research aims to explore the dynamic characteristics and settlement prediction of soft soil. Accordingly, the dynamic shear modulus formula considering the vibration frequency was utilized and the dynamic triaxial test conducted to verify the validity of the formula. Subsequently, the formula was applied to the dynamic creep strain function, with the factors influencing the improved dynamic creep strain curve of soft soil being analyzed. Meanwhile, the variation law of dynamic stress with sampling depth was obtained through the finite element simulation of subway foundation. Furthermore, the improved dynamic creep strain curve of soil layer was determined based on the dynamic stress. Thereafter, it could to estimate the long-term settlement under subway vibration loading by norms. The results revealed that the dynamic shear modulus formula is straightforward and practical in terms of its application to the vibration frequency. The values predicted using the improved dynamic creep strain formula closed to the experimental values, whilst the estimating settlement closed to the measured values obtained in the field test.

Ankle sprain as a work-related accident: status of proprioception after 2 weeks

PubMed Central

González-Iñigo, Salvador; Lafuente-Sotillos, Guillermo

2017-01-01

Purpose This study aims at verifying whether proprioception is abnormal or not, two weeks after a grade 1 and 2 ankle sprain in the scope of work-related accident. Methods A descriptive, observation and transversal study was designed to compare speed, movement and oscilation of centre of pressure in employees of companies signed up to a mutual company. Participants’ healthy feet comprised the control group, and feet that had undergone an ankle sprain due to a work-related accident comprised the cases group. The following stability tests were undertaken to both the healthy and injuried feet using a force plate: Monopodal Romberg test with eyes open, Monopodal Romberg test with eyes open on a 30 mm thick foam rubber, Monopodal Romberg test with eyes closed, and Romberg test as monopodal support with eyes closed on a 30 mm thick foam rubber. A multiple logistic regression analysis was performed. From the results of this regression model the COR curve test was performed. Results 71.7% accuracy in the predictions was attained. The equation was as follows: Condition (injured or healthy) = 0.052⋅% RGC AP Movement − 0.81⋅MREO AP Movement. The variable MREO antero-posterior movement was used in the COR curve methodology. The area under the curve was greater than 0.65 and at a 95% confidence interval the 0.75 value was included, which in our case was the injured subject condition. Values for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 0.667, 0.633, 64.5%, and 65.5%, respectively. Conclusion The participants in this study showed a diminished capacity for postural control in an ankle two weeks after an ankle sprain. PMID:29259844

Naked-eye inspection of the cervix after acetic acid application may improve the predictive value of negative cytologic screening.

PubMed

Frisch, L E; Milner, F H; Ferris, D G

1994-11-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive value of naked-eye inspection of the cervix (NIC) after acetic acid application as an adjunct to Papanicolaou (Pap) testing for cervical cancer screening. Study subjects were women attending a medical college student health clinic either for cervical cytologic screening (67%) or because of a recent atypical cytologic screening result (33%). All study participants received cytologic screening, cervicography, and NIC. Of the 95 patients, 71 (75%) had abnormal findings on NIC. Fifty-one patients underwent colposcopy with biopsy, including 48 of the 71 with an abnormal finding on NIC. The results of 40 of the biopsies were abnormal: 36 showed human papillomavirus or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions, 3 showed high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions, and 1 showed invasive cervical cancer. Sixty-five percent (26) of the abnormal biopsy findings occurred in women with normal cytologic test results. NIC and cervicography both were effective in identifying patients with abnormalities, but the combination of NIC followed by cervicography referred fewer women for colposcopy than did a positive result on NIC alone (52% vs 75%). The combination of a negative Pap smear and a negative NIC result had a 91% predictive value for the absence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. This was a significant improvement over cytologic screening alone. In this study, the combination of cytologic screening (Pap smear) and NIC increased the screening yield as compared with a Pap smear alone but with some loss of positive predictive value. NIC significantly improved the predictive value of negative cytologic screening results.

Comparison of Taxi Time Prediction Performance Using Different Taxi Speed Decision Trees

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Hanbong

2017-01-01

In the STBO modeler and tactical surface scheduler for ATD-2 project, taxi speed decision trees are used to calculate the unimpeded taxi times of flights taxiing on the airport surface. The initial taxi speed values in these decision trees did not show good prediction accuracy of taxi times. Using the more recent, reliable surveillance data, new taxi speed values in ramp area and movement area were computed. Before integrating these values into the STBO system, we performed test runs using live data from Charlotte airport, with different taxi speed settings: 1) initial taxi speed values and 2) new ones. Taxi time prediction performance was evaluated by comparing various metrics. The results show that the new taxi speed decision trees can calculate the unimpeded taxi-out times more accurately.

Predictive value of first fasting plasma glucose compared with admission plasma glucose for undiagnosed diabetes in a stable cardiology population.

PubMed

Wen, Zhu-zhi; Zhang, Xin-mei; Mai, Zun; Geng, Deng-feng; Wang, Jing-feng

2012-09-01

The study compared the predictive value of admission plasma glucose (APG) and first fasting plasma glucose (FPG) in stratifying patients meriting an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Characteristics of APG, FPG and OGTT 2-hour glucose as well as other blood measurements, physical examinations and medical information were assessed in 994 patients without known diabetes. The prevalences of diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance were 24.6% and 37.9%, according to an OGTT, respectively. The first FPG demonstrated stronger predictive value in diagnosing diabetes than APG did both in overall and in patients with less clinical value. Compared to the first FPG, APG provided less value to coronary artery disease, hypertension and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein for diabetes screening. The first FPG exerted more predictive value than APG did and was still a preferable reference prior to APG in stratifying patients for undiagnosed diabetes by an OGTT. Copyright © 2012 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of obesity on preterm delivery prediction by transabdominal recording of uterine electromyography.

PubMed

Lucovnik, Miha; Chambliss, Linda R; Blumrick, Richard; Balducci, James; Gersak, Ksenija; Garfield, Robert E

2016-10-01

It has been shown that noninvasive uterine electromyography (EMG) can identify true preterm labor more accurately than methods available to clinicians today. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of body mass index (BMI) on the accuracy of uterine EMG in predicting preterm delivery. Predictive values of uterine EMG for preterm delivery were compared in obese versus overweight/normal BMI patients. Hanley-McNeil test was used to compare receiver operator characteristics curves in these groups. Previously reported EMG cutoffs were used to determine groups with false positive/false negative and true positive/true negative EMG results. BMI in these groups was compared with Student t test (p < 0.05 significant). A total of 88 patients were included: 20 obese, 64 overweight, and four with normal BMI. EMG predicted preterm delivery within 7 days with area under the curve = 0.95 in the normal/overweight group, and with area under the curve = 1.00 in the obese group (p = 0.08). Six patients in true preterm labor (delivering within 7 days from EMG measurement) had low EMG values (false negative group). There were no false positive results. No significant differences in patient's BMI were noted between false negative group patients and preterm labor patients with high EMG values (true positive group) and nonlabor patients with low EMG values (true negative group; p = 0.32). Accuracy of noninvasive uterine EMG monitoring and its predictive value for preterm delivery are not affected by obesity. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Predictive contribution of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio in diagnosis of brucellosis.

PubMed

Olt, Serdar; Ergenç, Hasan; Açıkgöz, Seyyid Bilal

2015-01-01

Here we wanted to investigate predictive value of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in the diagnosis of brucellosis. Thirty-two brucellosis patients diagnosed with positive serum agglutination test and thirty-two randomized healthy subjects were enrolled in this study retrospectively. Result with ROC analyzes the baseline NLR and hemoglobin values were found to be significantly associated with brucellosis (P = 0.01, P = 0.01, resp.). Herein we demonstrated for the first time that NLR values were significantly associated with brucellosis. This situation can help clinicians during diagnosis of brucellosis.

Longitudinally Jointed Edge-Wise Compression HoneyComb Composite Sandwich Coupon Testing And Fe Analysis: Three Methods of Strain Measurement, And Comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farrokh, Babak; Rahim, Nur Aida Abul; Segal, Ken; Fan, Terry; Jones, Justin; Hodges, Ken; Mashni, Noah; Garg, Naman; Sang, Alex

2013-01-01

Three distinct strain measurement methods (i.e., foil resistance strain gages, fiber optic strain sensors, and a three-dimensional digital image photogrammetry that gives full field strain and displacement measurements) were implemented to measure strains on the back and front surfaces of a longitudinally jointed curved test article subjected to edge-wise compression testing, at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, according to ASTM C364. The pre-test finite element analysis (FEA) was conducted to assess ultimate failure load and predict strain distribution pattern throughout the test coupon. The predicted strain pattern contours were then utilized as guidelines for installing the strain measurement instrumentations. The foil resistance strain gages and fiber optic strain sensors were bonded on the specimen at locations with nearly the same analytically predicted strain values, and as close as possible to each other, so that, comparisons between the measured strains by strain gages and fiber optic sensors, as well as the three-dimensional digital image photogrammetric system are relevant. The test article was loaded to failure (at 167 kN), at the compressive strain value of 10,000 micro epsilon. As a part of this study, the validity of the measured strains by fiber optic sensors is examined against the foil resistance strain gages and the three-dimensional digital image photogrammetric data, and comprehensive comparisons are made with FEA predictions.

Meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies accounting for disease prevalence: alternative parameterizations and model selection.

PubMed

Chu, Haitao; Nie, Lei; Cole, Stephen R; Poole, Charles

2009-08-15

In a meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies, the sensitivities and specificities of a diagnostic test may depend on the disease prevalence since the severity and definition of disease may differ from study to study due to the design and the population considered. In this paper, we extend the bivariate nonlinear random effects model on sensitivities and specificities to jointly model the disease prevalence, sensitivities and specificities using trivariate nonlinear random-effects models. Furthermore, as an alternative parameterization, we also propose jointly modeling the test prevalence and the predictive values, which reflect the clinical utility of a diagnostic test. These models allow investigators to study the complex relationship among the disease prevalence, sensitivities and specificities; or among test prevalence and the predictive values, which can reveal hidden information about test performance. We illustrate the proposed two approaches by reanalyzing the data from a meta-analysis of radiological evaluation of lymph node metastases in patients with cervical cancer and a simulation study. The latter illustrates the importance of carefully choosing an appropriate normality assumption for the disease prevalence, sensitivities and specificities, or the test prevalence and the predictive values. In practice, it is recommended to use model selection techniques to identify a best-fitting model for making statistical inference. In summary, the proposed trivariate random effects models are novel and can be very useful in practice for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies. Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Usefulness of enzyme immunoassay (EIA) for screening of anti HIV antibodies in urinary specimens: A comparative analysis.

PubMed

Sahni, A K; Nagendra, A; Roy, Partha; Patrikar, S

2014-07-01

Standard HIV testing is done using serum or plasma. FDA approved ELISA to screen urine for IgG antibodies to HIV-1 in 1996. It is a simple, noninvasive test and is appropriate for developing countries where health care personnel may not be professionally trained or where clean needles for drawing blood may not always be available. 436 individuals with high-risk behavior and strong clinical suspicion of HIV infection were screened for IgG antibodies to HIV-1 in urine by ELISA. Urine HIV testing was performed by enzyme immunoassay, at the ongoing Voluntary Confidential Counseling and Testing Center (VCCTC) at a large tertiary care microbiology lab. The individuals enrolled for the study had high-risk exposure to the virus and majorities were from a state with a high incidence of HIV infection. In all individuals, both serum and urine were tested for IgG antibodies to HIV-1. Overall, 135 individuals (30.96%) were HIV-positive, of whom 96 (71%) had never previously tested positive; 87% of those who tested positive received their results, and most were referred for medical care. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of HIV-1 urine ELISA test kit were determined. Sensitivity was found to be 89.6%; 95% CI [82.9-94.0], specificity 97.3%; 95% CI [94.6-98.8], positive predictive value 93.8%; 95% CI [87.8-97.1] and negative predictive value 95.4%; 95% CI [92.3-97.4]. Efficiency, sensitivity, and specificity of the urine-based screening for HIV-1 test kits were excellent as compared to the reference test.

Extending Theory-Based Quantitative Predictions to New Health Behaviors.

PubMed

Brick, Leslie Ann D; Velicer, Wayne F; Redding, Colleen A; Rossi, Joseph S; Prochaska, James O

2016-04-01

Traditional null hypothesis significance testing suffers many limitations and is poorly adapted to theory testing. A proposed alternative approach, called Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions, uses effect size estimates and confidence intervals to directly test predictions based on theory. This paper replicates findings from previous smoking studies and extends the approach to diet and sun protection behaviors using baseline data from a Transtheoretical Model behavioral intervention (N = 5407). Effect size predictions were developed using two methods: (1) applying refined effect size estimates from previous smoking research or (2) using predictions developed by an expert panel. Thirteen of 15 predictions were confirmed for smoking. For diet, 7 of 14 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 6 of 16 using expert panel predictions. For sun protection, 3 of 11 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 5 of 19 using expert panel predictions. Expert panel predictions and smoking-based predictions poorly predicted effect sizes for diet and sun protection constructs. Future studies should aim to use previous empirical data to generate predictions whenever possible. The best results occur when there have been several iterations of predictions for a behavior, such as with smoking, demonstrating that expected values begin to converge on the population effect size. Overall, the study supports necessity in strengthening and revising theory with empirical data.

Clinical Utility of Urinary Cytology to Detect BK Viral Nephropathy.

PubMed

Nankivell, Brian J; Renthawa, Jasveen; Jeoffreys, Neisha; Kable, Kathy; O'Connell, Philip J; Chapman, Jeremy R; Wong, Germaine; Sharma, Raghwa N

2015-08-01

Reactivation of BK polyoma virus can result in destructive viral allograft nephropathy (BKVAN) with limited treatment options. Screening programs using surrogate markers of viral replication are important preventive strategies, guiding immunosuppression reduction. We prospectively evaluated the diagnostic test performance of urinary decoy cells and urinary SV40T immunochemistry of exfoliated cells, to screen for BKVAN, (defined by reference histology with SV40 immunohistochemistry, n = 704 samples), compared with quantitative viremia, from 211 kidney and 141 kidney-pancreas transplant recipients. The disease prevalence of BKVAN was 2.6%. Decoy cells occurred in 95 of 704 (13.5%) samples, with a sensitivity of 66.7%, specificity of 88.6%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 11.7%, and negative predictive value of 98.5% to predict histologically proven BKVAN. Quantification of decoy cells improved the PPV to 32.1% (10 ≥ cells threshold). Immunohistochemical staining of urinary exfoliated cells for SV40T improved sensitivity to 85.7%, detecting atypical or degenerate infected cells (specificity of 92.3% and PPV of 33.3%), but was hampered by technical failures. Viremia occurred in 90 of 704 (12.8%) with sensitivity of 96.3%, specificity of 90.3%, PPV of 31.5%, and negative predictive value of 99.8%. The receiver-operator curve performance of quantitative viremia surpassed decoy cells (area under the curve of 0.95 and 0.79, respectively, P = 0.0018 for differences). Combining decoy cell and BK viremia in a diagnostic matrix improved prediction of BKVAN and diagnostic risk stratification, especially for high-level positive results. Although quantified decoy cells are acceptable surrogate markers of BK viral replication with unexceptional test performances, quantitative viremia displayed superior test characteristics and is suggested as the screening test of choice.

Sound attenuation of fiberglass lined ventilation ducts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albright, Jacob

Sound attenuation is a crucial part of designing any HVAC system. Most ventilation systems are designed to be in areas occupied by one or more persons. If these systems do not adequately attenuate the sound of the supply fan, compressor, or any other source of sound, the affected area could be subject to an array of problems ranging from an annoying hum to a deafening howl. The goals of this project are to quantify the sound attenuation properties of fiberglass duct liner and to perform a regression analysis to develop equations to predict insertion loss values for both rectangular and round duct liners. The first goal was accomplished via insertion loss testing. The tests performed conformed to the ASTM E477 standard. Using the insertion loss test data, regression equations were developed to predict insertion loss values for rectangular ducts ranging in size from 12-in x 18-in to 48-in x 48-in in lengths ranging from 3ft to 30ft. Regression equations were also developed to predict insertion loss values for round ducts ranging in diameters from 12-in to 48-in in lengths ranging from 3ft to 30ft.

Contingent use of fetal fibronectin testing and cervical length measurement in women with preterm labour.

PubMed

Audibert, François; Fortin, Suzanne; Delvin, Edgard; Djemli, Anissa; Brunet, Suzanne; Dubé, Johanne; Fraser, William D

2010-04-01

To evaluate the contingent use of fetal fibronectin (fFN) testing and cervical length (CL) measurement to predict preterm delivery, and to validate the use of phosphorylated IGFBP-1 as a predictor of preterm delivery. We recruited 71 women with a clinical diagnosis of preterm labour between 24 and 34 weeks, and tested for the presence of fFN and IGFBP-1 in the cervicovaginal secretions of all women immediately before CL measurement. Among the 66 women with complete outcome, four were excluded from the final analysis as two had assessment for fFN but no CL measurement, and another two had CL measured but no screening for fFN. Among 62 women with complete results, the mean gestational age at recruitment was 29.4 +/- 2.5 weeks. Six women (9.6%) delivered within two weeks of assessment, and 14 (22.5%) delivered before 34 weeks. A positive fFN test resulted in a sensitivity of 83%, a specificity of 84%, a positive predictive value of 36%, and a negative predictive value of 98% for delivery within two weeks; for CL < 25 mm, these figures were 50%, 52%, 10%, and 91%, respectively, and for a positive IGFBP-1, they were 17%, 93%, 20%, and 91%, respectively. A policy of contingent use of fFN (in which the test was assumed to be positive if CL < or = 15 mm, and fFN was only measured if the CL was between 16 and 30 mm) gave sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of 80%, 61%, 17%, and 97%, respectively for delivery within two weeks. Using this contingent use protocol, only one third of women needed fFN screening after CL measurement. In this study, IGFBP-1 screening did not predict preterm delivery and fFN screening provided the best predictive capacity. A policy of contingent use of testing for fFN after CL measurement, or contingent use of CL measurement after fFN screening (depending on available resources) is a promising approach to limit use of resources.

Accuracy of blood culture for early diagnosis of mediastinitis in febrile patients after cardiac surgery.

PubMed

San Juan, R; Aguado, J M; López, M J; Lumbreras, C; Enriquez, F; Sanz, F; Chaves, F; López-Medrano, F; Lizasoain, M; Rufilanchas, J J

2005-03-01

Postsurgical mediastinitis (PSM) remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing cardiac surgery procedures. Although prompt diagnosis is crucial in these patients, neither clinical data nor imaging techniques have shown enough sensitivity or specificity for early diagnosis of PSM. The aim of the present study was to assess the validity of blood cultures as a diagnostic test for the early detection of PSM in patients who become febrile after cardiac surgery procedures. During a 4-year period (1999-2002), patients who developed fever (>37.8 degrees C) in the first 60 days after a cardiac surgery procedure were evaluated. Blood cultures were drawn from these patients. PSM was defined as deep infection involving retrosternal tissue and/or the sternal bone directly observed by the surgeon and confirmed microbiologically. Three criteria for positivity of blood cultures were applied: bacteremia, staphylococcal bacteremia, or Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia. For purposes of the analysis, a positive blood culture in patients with PSM was considered a true-positive test and a negative blood culture a false-negative test. Otherwise, in febrile patients without PSM in the postsurgery period, a positive blood culture was considered a false-positive test and a negative blood culture a true-negative test. Blood cultures were drawn from 266 febrile patients in the postsurgery period. PSM occurred in 38 patients (26 cases due to S. aureus, 8 to Staphylococcus epidermidis, 3 to gram-negative enteric bacteria, and one to Pseudomonas aeruginosa). Within the 60-day postsurgical period, blood culture as a diagnostic test was most accurate in patients with S. aureus bacteremia, providing 68% sensitivity, 98% specificity, a positive predictive value of 87%, and a negative predictive value of 95%. If the analysis was limited to the period during which patients are at maximum risk for PSM (day 7-20), the values in patients with S. aureus bacteremia were as follows: 73% sensitivity, 98% specificity, 90% positive predictive value, and 93% negative predictive value. Blood culture is an accurate test for the early diagnosis of PSM in febrile patients after cardiac surgery, particularly in institutions where S. aureus is prevalent in this context. A negative blood culture practically excludes PSM and, during the period of maximum risk for PSM, the presence of S. aureus bacteremia should compel early surgical management.

Predicting on-road assessment pass and fail outcomes in older drivers with cognitive impairment using a battery of computerized sensory-motor and cognitive tests.

PubMed

Hoggarth, Petra A; Innes, Carrie R H; Dalrymple-Alford, John C; Jones, Richard D

2013-12-01

To generate a robust model of computerized sensory-motor and cognitive test performance to predict on-road driving assessment outcomes in older persons with diagnosed or suspected cognitive impairment. A logistic regression model classified pass–fail outcomes of a blinded on-road driving assessment. Generalizability of the model was tested using leave-one-out cross-validation. Three specialist clinics in New Zealand. Drivers (n=279; mean age 78.4, 65% male) with diagnosed or suspected dementia, mild cognitive impairment, unspecified cognitive impairment, or memory problems referred for a medical driving assessment. A computerized battery of sensory-motor and cognitive tests and an on-road medical driving assessment. One hundred fifty-five participants (55.5%) received an on-road fail score. Binary logistic regression correctly classified 75.6% of the sample into on-road pass and fail groups. The cross-validation indicated accuracy of the model of 72.0% with sensitivity for detecting on-road fails of 73.5%, specificity of 70.2%, positive predictive value of 75.5%, and negative predictive value of 68%. The off-road assessment prediction model resulted in a substantial number of people who were assessed as likely to fail despite passing an on-road assessment and vice versa. Thus, despite a large multicenter sample, the use of off-road tests previously found to be useful in other older populations, and a carefully constructed and tested prediction model, off-road measures have yet to be found that are sufficiently accurate to allow acceptable determination of on-road driving safety of cognitively impaired older drivers. © 2013, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2013, The American Geriatrics Society.

Early Literacy and Early Numeracy: The Value of Including Early Literacy Skills in the Prediction of Numeracy Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Purpura, David J.; Hume, Laura E.; Sims, Darcey M.; Lonigan, Cristopher J.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine whether early literacy skills uniquely predict early numeracy skills development. During the first year of the study, 69 3- to 5-year-old preschoolers were assessed on the Preschool Early Numeracy Skills (PENS) test and the Test of Preschool Early Literacy Skills (TOPEL). Participants were assessed again a…

Using urinary leucocyte esterase tests as an indicator of infection with gonorrhoea or chlamydia in asymptomatic males in a primary health care setting.

PubMed

Rahman, Md Saifur; Beever, Warwick; Skov, Steven; Boffa, John

2014-02-01

To evaluate a leucocyte esterase test as a predictor of gonorrhoea or chlamydia in asymptomatic Aboriginal males at the Central Australian Aboriginal Congress Male Clinic (Ingkintja), first-void urine samples and clinical information were collected from consecutive asymptomatic males presenting to the Ingkintja in Alice Springs between March 2008 and December 2009. Urine was tested immediately with a leucocyte esterase test dipstick and then by polymerase chain reaction for gonorrhoea and chlamydia. Among the 292 specimens from asymptomatic males, 15.4% were positive for gonorrhoea or chlamydia. In this group, compared with polymerase chain reaction result for gonorrhoea or chlamydia, leucocyte esterase test alone and in combination with age ≤35 years showed sensitivities of 66.7% and 60%, specificities of 90.7% and 94.7%, positive predictive values of 56.6% and 67.5%, negative predictive values of 93.7% and 92.8% and the area under receiver operating characteristics curve values of 0.79 and 0.85, respectively. Leucocyte esterase tests can reasonably be used as a basis for immediate empirical treatment for gonorrhoea or chlamydia in asymptomatic central Australian Aboriginal men under 35 years of age.

Prediction of clinical response to drugs in ovarian cancer using the chemotherapy resistance test (CTR-test).

PubMed

Kischkel, Frank Christian; Meyer, Carina; Eich, Julia; Nassir, Mani; Mentze, Monika; Braicu, Ioana; Kopp-Schneider, Annette; Sehouli, Jalid

2017-10-27

In order to validate if the test result of the Chemotherapy Resistance Test (CTR-Test) is able to predict the resistances or sensitivities of tumors in ovarian cancer patients to drugs, the CTR-Test result and the corresponding clinical response of individual patients were correlated retrospectively. Results were compared to previous recorded correlations. The CTR-Test was performed on tumor samples from 52 ovarian cancer patients for specific chemotherapeutic drugs. Patients were treated with monotherapies or drug combinations. Resistances were classified as extreme (ER), medium (MR) or slight (SR) resistance in the CTR-Test. Combination treatment resistances were transformed by a scoring system into these classifications. Accurate sensitivity prediction was accomplished in 79% of the cases and accurate prediction of resistance in 100% of the cases in the total data set. The data set of single agent treatment and drug combination treatment were analyzed individually. Single agent treatment lead to an accurate sensitivity in 44% of the cases and the drug combination to 95% accuracy. The detection of resistances was in both cases to 100% correct. ROC curve analysis indicates that the CTR-Test result correlates with the clinical response, at least for the combination chemotherapy. Those values are similar or better than the values from a publication from 1990. Chemotherapy resistance testing in vitro via the CTR-Test is able to accurately detect resistances in ovarian cancer patients. These numbers confirm and even exceed results published in 1990. Better sensitivity detection might be caused by a higher percentage of drug combinations tested in 2012 compared to 1990. Our study confirms the functionality of the CTR-Test to plan an efficient chemotherapeutic treatment for ovarian cancer patients.

The diagnostic value of specific IgE to Ara h 2 to predict peanut allergy in children is comparable to a validated and updated diagnostic prediction model.

PubMed

Klemans, Rob J B; Otte, Dianne; Knol, Mirjam; Knol, Edward F; Meijer, Yolanda; Gmelig-Meyling, Frits H J; Bruijnzeel-Koomen, Carla A F M; Knulst, André C; Pasmans, Suzanne G M A

2013-01-01

A diagnostic prediction model for peanut allergy in children was recently published, using 6 predictors: sex, age, history, skin prick test, peanut specific immunoglobulin E (sIgE), and total IgE minus peanut sIgE. To validate this model and update it by adding allergic rhinitis, atopic dermatitis, and sIgE to peanut components Ara h 1, 2, 3, and 8 as candidate predictors. To develop a new model based only on sIgE to peanut components. Validation was performed by testing discrimination (diagnostic value) with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration (agreement between predicted and observed frequencies of peanut allergy) with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and a calibration plot. The performance of the (updated) models was similarly analyzed. Validation of the model in 100 patients showed good discrimination (88%) but poor calibration (P < .001). In the updating process, age, history, and additional candidate predictors did not significantly increase discrimination, being 94%, and leaving only 4 predictors of the original model: sex, skin prick test, peanut sIgE, and total IgE minus sIgE. When building a model with sIgE to peanut components, Ara h 2 was the only predictor, with a discriminative ability of 90%. Cutoff values with 100% positive and negative predictive values could be calculated for both the updated model and sIgE to Ara h 2. In this way, the outcome of the food challenge could be predicted with 100% accuracy in 59% (updated model) and 50% (Ara h 2) of the patients. Discrimination of the validated model was good; however, calibration was poor. The discriminative ability of Ara h 2 was almost comparable to that of the updated model, containing 4 predictors. With both models, the need for peanut challenges could be reduced by at least 50%. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Insensitivity of the "Romberg test of standing balance on firm and compliant support surfaces" to the results of caloric and VEMP tests.

PubMed

Jacobson, Gary P; McCaslin, Devin L; Piker, Erin G; Gruenwald, Jill; Grantham, Sarah; Tegel, Lauren

2011-01-01

The objective of this study was to assess the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value of the Romberg Test of Standing Balance on Firm and Compliant Support Surfaces (RTSBFCSS) for the identification of patients with vestibular system impairments affecting the horizontal semicircular canal, saccule, and/or inferior and superior vestibular nerves. The RTSBFCSS was developed for the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and was used recently to estimate the numbers of individuals aged 40 yr or older with vestibular system impairments among the general population of the United States. A retrospective analysis of the medical records of 103 consecutive patients aged 40 yr or older (mean age 59 ± 12 yr, 71 females) who had undergone vestibular assessment at the Balance Disorders Clinic at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. Patients with complete electro- or videonystagmography testing, cervical vestibular evoked myogenic potential (cVEMP) testing, and the RTSBFCSS screening test were included in the analysis. A series of 2 × 2 tables were created that represented the number of "true positives," "true negatives," "false positives," and "false negatives" of the RTSBFCSS under conditions where the caloric test was abnormal and then separately where the cVEMP test was abnormal. The data were analyzed in a manner such that sensitivity, specificity, and both positive and negative predictive value of the RTSBFCSS could be calculated. When the caloric test was used as the criterion standard and the subject selection criteria in the NHANES study were used (i.e., subjects who were able to maintain postural stability for trials 1-3 of the RTSBFCSS; N = 45), the sensitivity and specificity of the RTSBFCSS to impairment of the horizontal semicircular canal or superior vestibular nerve were 55% and 64%, respectively, yielding positive and negative predictive values of 55% and 64%, respectively. When all patients aged 40 yr or older were evaluated (N = 103), the sensitivity and specificity were 61% and 58%, respectively, yielding positive and negative predictive values of 39% and 78%, respectively. Using the cVEMP test as the criterion standard for the detection of impairment affecting the saccule and/or inferior vestibular nerve did not improve the performance criteria of the NHANES screening measure. The RTSBFCSS should not be used as a screening measure for vestibular impairment.

A global goodness-of-fit test for receiver operating characteristic curve analysis via the bootstrap method.

PubMed

Zou, Kelly H; Resnic, Frederic S; Talos, Ion-Florin; Goldberg-Zimring, Daniel; Bhagwat, Jui G; Haker, Steven J; Kikinis, Ron; Jolesz, Ferenc A; Ohno-Machado, Lucila

2005-10-01

Medical classification accuracy studies often yield continuous data based on predictive models for treatment outcomes. A popular method for evaluating the performance of diagnostic tests is the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The main objective was to develop a global statistical hypothesis test for assessing the goodness-of-fit (GOF) for parametric ROC curves via the bootstrap. A simple log (or logit) and a more flexible Box-Cox normality transformations were applied to untransformed or transformed data from two clinical studies to predict complications following percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) and for image-guided neurosurgical resection results predicted by tumor volume, respectively. We compared a non-parametric with a parametric binormal estimate of the underlying ROC curve. To construct such a GOF test, we used the non-parametric and parametric areas under the curve (AUCs) as the metrics, with a resulting p value reported. In the interventional cardiology example, logit and Box-Cox transformations of the predictive probabilities led to satisfactory AUCs (AUC=0.888; p=0.78, and AUC=0.888; p=0.73, respectively), while in the brain tumor resection example, log and Box-Cox transformations of the tumor size also led to satisfactory AUCs (AUC=0.898; p=0.61, and AUC=0.899; p=0.42, respectively). In contrast, significant departures from GOF were observed without applying any transformation prior to assuming a binormal model (AUC=0.766; p=0.004, and AUC=0.831; p=0.03), respectively. In both studies the p values suggested that transformations were important to consider before applying any binormal model to estimate the AUC. Our analyses also demonstrated and confirmed the predictive values of different classifiers for determining the interventional complications following PCIs and resection outcomes in image-guided neurosurgery.

The Conforming Brain and Deontological Resolve

PubMed Central

Pincus, Melanie; LaViers, Lisa; Prietula, Michael J.; Berns, Gregory

2014-01-01

Our personal values are subject to forces of social influence. Deontological resolve captures how strongly one relies on absolute rules of right and wrong in the representation of one's personal values and may predict willingness to modify one's values in the presence of social influence. Using fMRI, we found that a neurobiological metric for deontological resolve based on relative activity in the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC) during the passive processing of sacred values predicted individual differences in conformity. Individuals with stronger deontological resolve, as measured by greater VLPFC activity, displayed lower levels of conformity. We also tested whether responsiveness to social reward, as measured by ventral striatal activity during social feedback, predicted variability in conformist behavior across individuals but found no significant relationship. From these results we conclude that unwillingness to conform to others' values is associated with a strong neurobiological representation of social rules. PMID:25170989

Interferon-γ-inducible protein-10 in chronic hepatitis C: Correlations with insulin resistance, histological features & sustained virological response.

PubMed

Crisan, Dana; Grigorescu, Mircea Dan; Radu, Corina; Suciu, Alina; Grigorescu, Mircea

2017-04-01

One of the multiple factors contributing to virological response in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is interferon-gamma-inducible protein-10 (IP-10). Its level reflects the status of interferon-stimulated genes, which in turn is associated with virological response to antiviral therapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of serum IP-10 levels on sustained virological response (SVR) and the association of this parameter with insulin resistance (IR) and liver histology. Two hundred and three consecutive biopsy proven CHC patients were included in the study. Serum levels of IP-10 were determined using ELISA method. IR was evaluated by homeostasis model assessment-IR (HOMA-IR). Histological features were assessed invasively by liver biopsy and noninvasively using FibroTest, ActiTest and SteatoTest. Predictive factors for SVR and their interrelations were assessed. A cut-off value for IP-10 of 392 pg/ml was obtained to discriminate between responders and non-responders. SVR was obtained in 107 patients (52.70%). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for SVR was 0.875 with a sensitivity of 91.6 per cent, specificity 74.7 per cent, positive predictive value 80.3 per cent and negative predictive value 88.7 per cent. Higher values of IP-10 were associated with increasing stages of fibrosis (P<0.01) and higher grades of inflammation (P=0.02, P=0.07) assessed morphologically and noninvasively through FibroTest and ActiTest. Significant steatosis and IR were also associated with increased levels of IP-10 (P=0.01 and P=0.02). In multivariate analysis, IP-10 levels and fibrosis stages were independently associated with SVR. Our findings showed that the assessment of serum IP-10 level could be a predictive factor for SVR and it was associated with fibrosis, necroinflammatory activity, significant steatosis and IR in patients with chronic HCV infection.

Streamlining the Evaluation of Low Back Pain in Children

PubMed Central

Auerbach, Joshua D.; Ahn, Jaimo; Zgonis, Miltiadis H.; Reddy, Sudheer C.; Ecker, Malcolm L.

2008-01-01

The workup of low back pain in children often results in overimaging so as not to miss organic back pain. The primary goal of this study was to identify which combination of imaging modalities provides the most sensitive and specific screening protocol for children with low back pain. Medical records from 100 consecutive patients between 2 and 18 years of age presenting with low back pain, without night pain or constitutional symptoms, were evaluated. A hyperextension test combined with a radiograph showed a negative predictive value of 0.81 and sensitivity of 0.90. The addition of a bone scan was highly effective in achieving good negative predictive value and sensitivity. Bone scans had perfect negative predictive value and sensitivity when symptom duration was less than 6 weeks. We identified a set of factors that is highly predictive for distinguishing organic back pain from mechanical back pain. Painless hyperextension combined with negative anteroposterior, lateral, and oblique lumbar radiographs and magnetic resonance images predicts mechanical back pain. For patients with nonneurologic back pain of less than 6 weeks duration, bone scan is the most useful screening test because it is accurate, accessible, inexpensive, and unlikely to require sedation. Level of Evidence: Level III, diagnostic study. See the Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. PMID:18553213

FABRIC FILTER MODEL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

The report gives results of a series of sensitivity tests of a GCA fabric filter model, as a precursor to further laboratory and/or field tests. Preliminary tests had shown good agreement with field data. However, the apparent agreement between predicted and actual values was bas...

Overview of T.E.S.T. (Toxicity Estimation Software Tool)

EPA Science Inventory

This talk provides an overview of T.E.S.T. (Toxicity Estimation Software Tool). T.E.S.T. predicts toxicity values and physical properties using a variety of different QSAR (quantitative structure activity relationship) approaches including hierarchical clustering, group contribut...

Machine Learning Model Analysis and Data Visualization with Small Molecules Tested in a Mouse Model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection (2014–2015)

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The renewed urgency to develop new treatments for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection has resulted in large-scale phenotypic screening and thousands of new active compounds in vitro. The next challenge is to identify candidates to pursue in a mouse in vivo efficacy model as a step to predicting clinical efficacy. We previously analyzed over 70 years of this mouse in vivo efficacy data, which we used to generate and validate machine learning models. Curation of 60 additional small molecules with in vivo data published in 2014 and 2015 was undertaken to further test these models. This represents a much larger test set than for the previous models. Several computational approaches have now been applied to analyze these molecules and compare their molecular properties beyond those attempted previously. Our previous machine learning models have been updated, and a novel aspect has been added in the form of mouse liver microsomal half-life (MLM t1/2) and in vitro-based Mtb models incorporating cytotoxicity data that were used to predict in vivo activity for comparison. Our best Mtbin vivo models possess fivefold ROC values > 0.7, sensitivity > 80%, and concordance > 60%, while the best specificity value is >40%. Use of an MLM t1/2 Bayesian model affords comparable results for scoring the 60 compounds tested. Combining MLM stability and in vitroMtb models in a novel consensus workflow in the best cases has a positive predicted value (hit rate) > 77%. Our results indicate that Bayesian models constructed with literature in vivoMtb data generated by different laboratories in various mouse models can have predictive value and may be used alongside MLM t1/2 and in vitro-based Mtb models to assist in selecting antitubercular compounds with desirable in vivo efficacy. We demonstrate for the first time that consensus models of any kind can be used to predict in vivo activity for Mtb. In addition, we describe a new clustering method for data visualization and apply this to the in vivo training and test data, ultimately making the method accessible in a mobile app. PMID:27335215

Predictive value of the complex magnetocardiographic index in patients with intermediate pretest probability of chronic coronary artery disease: results of a two-center study.

PubMed

Chaikovsky, Illya; Hailer, Birgit; Sosnytskyy, Volodymyr; Lutay, Mykhaylo; Mjasnikov, Georgiy; Kazmirchuk, Anatoly; Bydnyk, Mykola; Lomakovskyy, Alexander; Sosnytskaja, Taisia

2014-09-01

The aim of this paper is to investigate the predictive value of the new integrated magnetocardiographic (MCG) index (CI) in the diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with suspected CAD with intermediate pretest probability of the disease and uninformative results of routine tests. The study was carried out in the Clinic of Cardiology of the Main Military Clinical Hospital of Ukraine, Kiev (clinic 1), and in the Second Medical Clinic of the 'Katholisches Klinikum Essen', Germany (clinic 2).The main group (group 1) included 89 patients without a history of myocardial infarction. Coronary angiography was performed because of chest pain. Depending on the results of coronary angiography, this group was divided into two subgroups: (i) those with at least 70% stenosis in at least one of the main coronary arteries (subgroup 1a) and (ii) those without hemodynamically significant stenosis (subgroup 1b). The control group included 43 healthy volunteers.In all participants, the MCG examination was performed using a seven-channel MCG system located in an unshielded room. An integrated MCG index (CI), consisting of six parameters, was calculated. It can be shown that CI was significantly higher in patients with stenosis 70% or more compared with the patients without stenosis and healthy volunteers. Sensitivity was 93%, specificity was 84%, positive predictive value was 85%, and negative predictive value was 93%. The MCG test at rest has the potential to be useful in the noninvasive diagnosis of CAD in patients with intermediate pretest probability of disease and uninformative results of routine tests.

Tensile and compressive modulus of elasticity of pultruded fiber-reinforced polymer composite materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. H.; Kim, S. H.; Park, J. K.; Choi, W. C.; Yoon, S. J.

2018-06-01

Many researches focused on the mechanical properties of steel and concrete have been carried out for applications in the construction industry. However, in order to clarify the mechanical properties of pultruded fiber-reinforced polymer (PFRP) structural members for construction, testing is needed. Deriving the mechanical properties of PFRP structural members through testing is difficult, however, because some members cannot be tested easily due to their cross-section dimensions. This paper reports a part of studies that attempt to present conservative results in the case of members that cannot be tested reasonably. The authors obtained and compared experimental and theoretical modulus of elasticity values. If the mechanical properties of PFRP members can be predicted using reasonable and conservative values, then the structure can be designed economically and safely even in the early design stages. To this end, this paper proposes a strain energy approach as a conservative and convenient way to predict the mechanical properties of PFRP structural members. The strain energy data obtained can be used to predict the mechanical properties of PFRP members in the construction field.

Comparison of diagnostic methods in the evaluation of onychomycosis.

PubMed

Haghani, Iman; Shokohi, Tahereh; Hajheidari, Zohreh; Khalilian, Alireza; Aghili, Seyed Reza

2013-04-01

Onychomycosis is a common nail problem, accounting for up to half of all nail diseases. Several nail disorders may mimic the onychomycosis clinically. Therefore, a sensitive, quick, and inexpensive test is essential for screening nail specimens for the administration of the proper drug. The aim of this study was to compare 4 different diagnostic methods in the evaluation of onychomycosis and to determine their sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. In a cross-sectional study, nail specimens were collected from 101 patients suspected to have onychomycosis during a 14-month period. The nail specimens were examined using potassium hydroxide (KOH) 20 %, KOH-treated nail clipping stained with periodic acid-Schiff (KONCPA), and calcofluor white (CFW) stain, and grew a fungal culture. The culture was chosen as the gold standard for statistical analysis using the McNemar and chi-square tests. Out of 101 patients, 100 (99 %) patients had at least 1 of the 4 diagnostic methods positive for the presence of organisms. The positive rates for the fungal culture, KOH preparation, CFW, and KONCPA were 74.2, 85.1, 91.09, and 99.01 %, respectively. The sensitivity and negative predictive value of KONCPA was 100 %. KONCPA was the most sensitive among the tests and was also superior to other methods in its negative predictive value. KONCPA was easy to perform, rapid, and gave significantly higher rates of detection of onychomycosis compared to the standard methods of KOH preparation and fungal culture. Therefore, KONCPA should be the single method of choice for the evaluation of onychomycosis.

Nalidixic acid surrogate test for susceptibility to ciprofloxacin in Salmonella. Revisiting the question.

PubMed

Guzmán-Martín, José Luis; Navarro-Marí, José María; Expósito-Ruiz, Manuela; Gutiérrez-Fernández, José

2018-05-16

We investigated the reliability of nalidixic acid (NA) susceptibility as a marker of ciprofloxacin susceptibility in Salmonella, analysing 302 stool isolates. NC53 of the MicroScan system was used for NA susceptibility tests and the E-test was used for ciprofloxacin susceptibility tests. Among the isolates, 178 (58.9 %) were serogroup B, 74 (24.5 %) were serogroup D, 27 (8.9 %) were serogroup C and 23 (7.6 %) were from other minor serogroups. Globally, susceptibility to NA correctly predicted the susceptibility of Salmonella to ciprofloxacin, with a sensitivity of 81.5 %, a specificity of 97.6 %, and positive and negative predictive values of 88 and 96 %, respectively. However, there were differences among the serogroups in terms of sensitivity (P<0.001) and positive predictive values (P=0.013). NA is a reliable marker for serogroup D, but not for serogroups B or C. According to these findings, NA susceptibility measured with the MicroScan system can be used as a marker of ciprofloxacin resistance in some serogroups in our setting.

Use of Landsat data to predict the trophic state of Minnesota lakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lillesand, T. M.; Johnson, W. L.; Deuell, R. L.; Lindstrom, O. M.; Meisner, D. E.

1983-01-01

Near-concurrent Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and ground data were obtained for 60 lakes distributed in two Landsat scene areas. The ground data included measurement of secchi disk depth, chlorophyll-a, total phosphorous, turbidity, color, and total nitrogen, as well as Carlson Trophic State Index (TSI) values derived from the first three parameters. The Landsat data best correlated with the TSI values. Prediction models were developed to classify some 100 'test' lakes appearing in the two analysis scenes on the basis of TSI estimates. Clouds, wind, poor image data, small lake size, and shallow lake depth caused some problems in lake TSI prediction. Overall, however, the Landsat-predicted TSI estimates were judged to be very reliable for the secchi-derived TSI estimation, moderately reliable for prediction of the chlorophyll-a TSI, and unreliable for the phosphorous value. Numerous Landsat data extraction procedures were compared, and the success of the Landsat TSI prediction models was a strong function of the procedure employed.

Predictive Genetic Testing and Alternatives to Face to Face Results Disclosure: A Retrospective Review of Patients Preference for Alternative Modes of BRCA 1 and 2 Results Disclosure in the Republic of Ireland.

PubMed

O'Shea, Rosie; Meany, Marie; Carroll, Cliona; Cody, Nuala; Healy, David; Green, Andrew; Lynch, Sally Ann

2016-06-01

The traditional model of providing cancer predictive testing services is changing. Many genetic centres are now offering a choice to patients in how they receive their results instead of the typical face-to-face disclosure. In view of this shift in practice and the increasing demand on the ROI cancer predictive testing service, a 2 year retrospective study on patient preference in how to receive a Breast Cancer (BRCA) predictive result was carried out. Results showed that 71.7 % of respondents would have liked to have the option of obtaining their results by telephone or by letter. However, when asked about their actual experience of BRCA predictive results disclosure 40.6 % did still value the face-to-face contact, while 44.9 % would still have preferred to receive results by either post or telephone. No significant difference was found between males and females (p > 0.05) and those who tested negative or positive for the BRCA mutation (p > 0.05) in wanting a choice in how their results were disclosed. While the majority expressed a wish to have a choice in how to receive their results, it is important not to underestimate the value of a face-to-face encounter in these circumstances.

Assessment of internal mammary artery and saphenous vein graft patency and flow reserve using transthoracic Doppler echocardiography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chirillo, F.; Bruni, A.; Balestra, G.; Cavallini, C.; Olivari, Z.; Thomas, J. D.; Stritoni, P.

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate transthoracic Doppler echocardiography in the identification of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) flow for assessing graft patency. DESIGN: The initial study group comprised 45 consecutive patients with previous CABG undergoing elective cardiac catheterisation for recurrent ischaemia. The Doppler variables best correlated with angiographic graft patency were then tested prospectively in a further 84 patients (test group). SETTING: Three tertiary referral centres. INTERVENTIONS: Flow velocities in grafts were recorded at rest and during hyperaemia induced by dipyridamole (0.56 mg/kg/4 min), under the guidance of transthoracic colour Doppler flow mapping. Findings on transthoracic Doppler were compared with angiography. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Feasibility of identifying open grafts by Doppler and diagnostic accuracy for Doppler detection of significant (>/= 70%) graft stenosis. RESULTS: In the test group the identification rate for mammary artery grafts was 100%, for saphenous vein grafts to left anterior descending coronary artery 91%, for vein grafts to right coronary artery 96%, and for vein grafts to circumflex artery 90%. Coronary flow reserve (the ratio between peak diastolic velocity under hyperaemia and at baseline) of < 1.9 (95% confidence interval 1.83 to 2.08) had 100% sensitivity, 98% specificity, 87.5% positive predictive value, and 100% negative predictive value for mammary artery graft stenosis. Coronary flow reserve of < 1.6 (95% CI 1.51 to 1.73) had 91% sensitivity, 87% specificity, 85.4% positive predictive value, and 92.3% negative predictive value for significant vein graft stenosis. CONCLUSIONS: Transthoracic Doppler can provide non-invasive assessment of CABG patency.

Ultrasound as a screening test for genitourinary anomalies in children with UTI.

PubMed

Nelson, Caleb P; Johnson, Emilie K; Logvinenko, Tanya; Chow, Jeanne S

2014-03-01

The 2011 American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines state that renal and bladder ultrasound (RBUS) should be performed after initial febrile urinary tract infection (UTI) in a young child, with voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG) performed only if RBUS shows abnormalities. We sought to determine test characteristics and predictive values of RBUS for VCUG findings in this setting. We analyzed 3995 clinical encounters from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2010 during which VCUG and RBUS were performed for history of UTI. Patients who had previous postnatal genitourinary imaging or history of prenatal hydronephrosis were excluded. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of RBUS for VCUG abnormalities were determined. We identified 2259 patients age <60 months who had UTI as the indication for imaging. RBUS was reported as "normal" in 75%. On VCUG, any vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) was identified in 41.7%, VUR grade >II in 20.9%, and VUR grade >III in 2.8%. Sensitivity of RBUS for any abnormal findings on VCUG ranged from 5% (specificity: 97%) to 28% (specificity: 77%). Sensitivity for VUR grade >III ranged from 18% (specificity: 97%) to 55% (specificity: 77%). Among the 1203 children aged 2 to 24 months imaged after a first febrile UTI, positive predictive value of RBUS was 37% to 47% for VUR grade >II (13% to 24% for VUR grade >III); negative predictive value was 72% to 74% for VUR grade >II (95% to 96% for VUR grade >III). RBUS is a poor screening test for genitourinary abnormalities. RBUS and VCUG should be considered complementary as they provide important, but different, information.

Aerosol penetration through a model transport system: Comparison of theory and experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McFarland, A.R.; Wong, F.S.; Anand, N.K.

1991-09-01

Numerical predictions were made of aerosol penetration through a model transport system. A physical model of the system was constructed and tested in an aerosol wind tunnel to obtain comparative data. The system was 26.6 mm in diameter and consisted of an inlet and three straight sections (oriented horizontally, vertically, and at 45{degree}). Particle sizes covered a range in which losses were primarily caused by inertial and gravitational effects (3-25 {mu}m aerodynamic equivalent diameter (AED)). Tests were conducted at two flow rates (70 and 130 l/min) and two inlet orientations (parallel and perpendicular to the free stream). Wind speed wasmore » 3 m/s for all test cases. The cut points for aerosol penetration through the experimental model vis-a-vis the numerical results are as follows: At a flow rate of 70 l/min with the inlet at 0{degree}, the experimentally observed cut point was 16.2 {mu}m AED while the numerically predicted value was 18.2 {mu}m AED while the numerically predicted value was 18.2 {mu}m AED. At 130 l/min and 0{degree}, the experimental cut point was 12.8 {mu}m AED as compared with a numerically value of 13.7 {mu}m AED. At 70l/min and a 90{degree}, the experimental cut point was 12.0 {mu}m AED while the numerically calculated value was 11.1 {mu}m AED. Slopes of the experimental penetration curves are somewhat steeper than the numerically predicted counterparts.« less

Ultrasound as a Screening Test for Genitourinary Anomalies in Children With UTI

PubMed Central

Johnson, Emilie K.; Logvinenko, Tanya; Chow, Jeanne S.

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: The 2011 American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines state that renal and bladder ultrasound (RBUS) should be performed after initial febrile urinary tract infection (UTI) in a young child, with voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG) performed only if RBUS shows abnormalities. We sought to determine test characteristics and predictive values of RBUS for VCUG findings in this setting. METHODS: We analyzed 3995 clinical encounters from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2010 during which VCUG and RBUS were performed for history of UTI. Patients who had previous postnatal genitourinary imaging or history of prenatal hydronephrosis were excluded. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of RBUS for VCUG abnormalities were determined. RESULTS: We identified 2259 patients age <60 months who had UTI as the indication for imaging. RBUS was reported as “normal” in 75%. On VCUG, any vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) was identified in 41.7%, VUR grade >II in 20.9%, and VUR grade >III in 2.8%. Sensitivity of RBUS for any abnormal findings on VCUG ranged from 5% (specificity: 97%) to 28% (specificity: 77%). Sensitivity for VUR grade >III ranged from 18% (specificity: 97%) to 55% (specificity: 77%). Among the 1203 children aged 2 to 24 months imaged after a first febrile UTI, positive predictive value of RBUS was 37% to 47% for VUR grade >II (13% to 24% for VUR grade >III); negative predictive value was 72% to 74% for VUR grade >II (95% to 96% for VUR grade >III). CONCLUSIONS: RBUS is a poor screening test for genitourinary abnormalities. RBUS and VCUG should be considered complementary as they provide important, but different, information. PMID:24515519

Bile acid malabsorption in patients with chronic diarrhoea: clinical value of SeHCAT test.

PubMed

Wildt, S; Nørby Rasmussen, S; Lysgård Madsen, J; Rumessen, J J

2003-08-01

Bile acid malabsorption (BAM), a cause of chronic diarrhoea, can be diagnosed by the SeHCAT test. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of SeHCAT testing by assessing the extent of BAM and describing the clinical characteristics in a group of patients with chronic diarrhoea. Clinical outcome after treatment with cholestyramine was also evaluated. During a 5-year period (1997-2001) the SeHCAT test was performed in 135 patients in whom a primary programme for diagnostic evaluation of chronic diarrhoea had not revealed a cause. File data from 133 patients could be evaluated. In 44% of patients, bile acid absorption was normal with SeHCAT retention > or = 15%. Impaired SeHCAT retention was found in 56%. All patients with ileocaecal resections had retention values < 10%. Patients with microscopic colitis presented with BAM in 39%. Only one patient with idiopathic BAM presented with steatorrhoea as opposed to 11 patients with type 1 and 3 BAM. Patients with idiopathic BAM and/or SeHCAT retention values < 5% had the best response to treatment with cholestyramine. The SeHCAT test is of value in evaluation of patients with chronic diarrhoea as a second-line investigation with a high diagnostic yield. The only a priori parameter to predict BAM was the existence of ileocaecal resections. The result of the SeHCAT test seems to predict the benefit of treatment with cholestyramine.

Patch testing and allergen-specific serum IgE and IgG antibodies in the diagnosis of canine adverse food reactions.

PubMed

Bethlehem, Simone; Bexley, Jennifer; Mueller, Ralf S

2012-02-15

Adverse food reaction (AFR) is a common differential diagnosis for pruritic dogs. The only way to diagnose AFR is an elimination diet of 6-8 weeks with a protein and a carbohydrate source not previously fed. In humans, patch testing has been shown to be a useful tool to diagnose food allergies. In veterinary medicine, serum food allergen-specific antibody testing is widely offered to identify suitable ingredients for such diets. The aim of this study was to determine sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictability of patch testing with and serum antibody testing for a variety of common food stuffs. Twenty-five allergic dogs underwent an elimination diet and individual rechallenge with selected food stuffs, food patch testing and serum testing for food-antigen specific IgE and IgG. Eleven clinically normal control dogs only were subjected to patch and serum testing. The sensitivity and specificity of the patch test were 96.7 and 89.0% respectively, negative and positive predictability were 99.3 and 63.0%. For IgE and IgG the sensitivity was 6.7 and 26.7%, specificity were 91.4 and 88.3%, the negative predictive values 80.7 and 83.7% and the positive predictive values were 15.4 and 34.8%. Based on these results, a positive reaction of a dog on these tests is not very helpful, but a negative result indicates that this antigen is tolerated well. We conclude that patch testing (and to a lesser degree serum testing) can be helpful in choosing ingredients for an elimination diet in a dog with suspected AFR. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Effects of Barometric Fluctuations on Well Water-Level Measurements and Aquifer Test Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spane, Frank A.

1999-12-16

This report examines the effects of barometric fluctuations on well water-level measurements and evaluates adjustment and removal methods for determining areal aquifer head conditions and aquifer test analysis. Two examples of Hanford Site unconfined aquifer tests are examined that demonstrate baro-metric response analysis and illustrate the predictive/removal capabilities of various methods for well water-level and aquifer total head values. Good predictive/removal characteristics were demonstrated with best corrective results provided by multiple-regression deconvolution methods.

Testing and analysis of internal hardwood log defect prediction models

Treesearch

R. Edward Thomas

2011-01-01

The severity and location of internal defects determine the quality and value of lumber sawn from hardwood logs. Models have been developed to predict the size and position of internal defects based on external defect indicator measurements. These models were shown to predict approximately 80% of all internal knots based on external knot indicators. However, the size...

Automated chart review utilizing natural language processing algorithm for asthma predictive index.

PubMed

Kaur, Harsheen; Sohn, Sunghwan; Wi, Chung-Il; Ryu, Euijung; Park, Miguel A; Bachman, Kay; Kita, Hirohito; Croghan, Ivana; Castro-Rodriguez, Jose A; Voge, Gretchen A; Liu, Hongfang; Juhn, Young J

2018-02-13

Thus far, no algorithms have been developed to automatically extract patients who meet Asthma Predictive Index (API) criteria from the Electronic health records (EHR) yet. Our objective is to develop and validate a natural language processing (NLP) algorithm to identify patients that meet API criteria. This is a cross-sectional study nested in a birth cohort study in Olmsted County, MN. Asthma status ascertained by manual chart review based on API criteria served as gold standard. NLP-API was developed on a training cohort (n = 87) and validated on a test cohort (n = 427). Criterion validity was measured by sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the NLP algorithm against manual chart review for asthma status. Construct validity was determined by associations of asthma status defined by NLP-API with known risk factors for asthma. Among the eligible 427 subjects of the test cohort, 48% were males and 74% were White. Median age was 5.3 years (interquartile range 3.6-6.8). 35 (8%) had a history of asthma by NLP-API vs. 36 (8%) by abstractor with 31 by both approaches. NLP-API predicted asthma status with sensitivity 86%, specificity 98%, positive predictive value 88%, negative predictive value 98%. Asthma status by both NLP and manual chart review were significantly associated with the known asthma risk factors, such as history of allergic rhinitis, eczema, family history of asthma, and maternal history of smoking during pregnancy (p value < 0.05). Maternal smoking [odds ratio: 4.4, 95% confidence interval 1.8-10.7] was associated with asthma status determined by NLP-API and abstractor, and the effect sizes were similar between the reviews with 4.4 vs 4.2 respectively. NLP-API was able to ascertain asthma status in children mining from EHR and has a potential to enhance asthma care and research through population management and large-scale studies when identifying children who meet API criteria.

Creatinine measurement on dry blood spot sample for chronic kidney disease screening.

PubMed

Silva, Alan Castro Azevedo E; Gómez, Juan Fidel Bencomo; Lugon, Jocemir Ronaldo; Graciano, Miguel Luis

2016-03-01

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) screening is advisable due to its high morbidity and mortality and is usually performed by sampling blood and urine. Here we present an innovative and simpler method, by measuring creatinine on a dry blood spot on filter paper. One-hundred and six individuals at high risk for CKD were enrolled. The creatinine values obtained using both tests and the demographic data of each participant allowed us to determinate the eGFR. The adopted cutoff for CKD was an eGFR < 60 ml/min. Mean age was 57 ± 12 years, 74% were female, 40% white, and 60% non-white. Seventy-six percent were hypertensive, 30% diabetic, 37% had family history of CKD, and 22% of smoking. The BMI was 29.5 ± 6.9 kg/m2, median systolic blood pressure was 125 mmHg (IQR 120-140 mmHg) and median diastolic blood pressure was 80 mmHg (IQR 70-80 mmHg). According to MDRD equation, sensitivity was 96%, specificity 55%, predictive positive value 96%, predictive negative value 55% and accuracy 92%. By the CKD-EPI equation the sensitivity was 94%, specificity 55%, predictive positive value 94%, predictive negative value 55% and accuracy 90%. A Bland and Altman analysis showed a relatively narrow range of creatinine values differences (+ 0.68mg/dl to -0.55mg/dl) inside the ± 1.96 SD, without systematic differences. Measurement of creatinine on dry blood sample is an easily feasible non-invasive diagnostic test with good accuracy that may be useful to screen chronic kidney disease.

sup 14 C-urea breath test for the detection of Helicobacter pylori

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veldhuyzen van Zanten, S.J.; Tytgat, K.M.; Hollingsworth, J.

1990-04-01

The high urease activity of Helicobacter pylori can be used to detect this bacterium by noninvasive breath tests. We have developed a {sup 14}C-urea breath test which uses 5 microCi {sup 14}C with 50 mg nonradioactive urea. Breath samples are collected at baseline and every 30 min for 2 h. Our study compared the outcome of the breath test to the results of histology and culture of endoscopically obtained gastric biopsies in 84 patients. The breath test discriminated well between the 50 positive patients and the 34 patients negative for Helicobacter pylori: the calculated sensitivity was 100%, specificity 88%, positivemore » predictive value 93%, and negative predictive value 100%. Treatment with bismuth subsalicylate and/or ampicillin resulted in lower counts of exhaled {sup 14}CO{sub 2} which correlated with histological improvement in gastritis. The {sup 14}C-urea breath test is a better gold standard for the detection of Helicobacter pylori than histology and/or culture.« less

Predictive validity of the Biomedical Admissions Test: an evaluation and case study.

PubMed

McManus, I C; Ferguson, Eamonn; Wakeford, Richard; Powis, David; James, David

2011-01-01

There has been an increase in the use of pre-admission selection tests for medicine. Such tests need to show good psychometric properties. Here, we use a paper by Emery and Bell [2009. The predictive validity of the Biomedical Admissions Test for pre-clinical examination performance. Med Educ 43:557-564] as a case study to evaluate and comment on the reporting of psychometric data in the field of medical student selection (and the comments apply to many papers in the field). We highlight pitfalls when reliability data are not presented, how simple zero-order associations can lead to inaccurate conclusions about the predictive validity of a test, and how biases need to be explored and reported. We show with BMAT that it is the knowledge part of the test which does all the predictive work. We show that without evidence of incremental validity it is difficult to assess the value of any selection tests for medicine.

Predicting the Occurrence of Hypotension in Stable Patients With Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Point-of-Care Lactate Testing.

PubMed

Ko, Byuk Sung; Kim, Won Young; Ryoo, Seung Mok; Ahn, Shin; Sohn, Chang Hwan; Seo, Dong Woo; Lee, Yoon-Seon; Lim, Kyoung Soo; Jung, Hwoon-Yong

2015-11-01

It is difficult to assess risk in normotensive patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the initial lactate value can predict the in-hospital occurrence of hypotension in stable patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Retrospective, observational, single-center study. Emergency department of a tertiary-care, university-affiliated hospital during a 5-year period. Medical records of 3,489 patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding who were normotensive at presentation to the emergency department. We analyzed the ability of point-of-care testing of lactate at emergency department admission to predict hypotension development (defined as systolic blood pressure <90 mm Hg) within 24 hours after emergency department admission. None. Of the 1,003 patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding, 157 patients experienced hypotension within 24 hours. Lactate was independently associated with hypotension development (odds ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4-1.7), and the risk of hypotension significantly increased as the lactate increased from 2.5-4.9 mmol/L (odds ratio, 2.2) to 5.0-7.4 mmol/L (odds ratio, 4.0) and to greater than or equal to 7.5 mmol/L (odds ratio, 39.2) (p<0.001). Lactate elevation (≥2.5 mmol/L) was associated with 90% specificity and an 84% negative predictive value for hypotension development. When the lactate levels were greater than 5.0 mmol/L, the specificity and negative predictive value increased to 98% and 87%, respectively. Point-of-care testing of lactate can predict in-hospital occurrence of hypotension in stable patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. However, subsequently, prospective validate research will be required to clarify this.

Rheumatoid arthritis patient perceptions on the value of predictive testing for treatments: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Kumar, Kanta; Peters, Sarah; Barton, Anne

2016-11-08

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a long term condition that requires early treatment to control symptoms and improve long-term outcomes. Lack of response to RA treatments is not only a waste of healthcare resources, but also causes disability and distress to patients. Identifying biomarkers predictive of treatment response offers an opportunity to improve clinical decisions about which treatment to recommend in patients and could ultimately lead to better patient outcomes. The aim of this study was to explore the understanding of and factors affecting Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) patients' decisions around predictive treatment testing. A qualitative study was conducted with a purposive sample of 16 patients with RA from three major UK cities. Four focus groups explored patient perceptions of the use of biomarker tests to predict response to treatments. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using thematic analysis by three researchers. Data were organised within three interlinking themes: [1] Perceptions of predictive tests and patient preference of tests; [2] Utility of the test to manage expectations; [3] The influence of the disease duration on take up of predictive testing. During consultations for predictive testing, patients felt they would need, first, careful explanations detailing the consequences of untreated RA and delayed treatment response and, second, support to balance the risks of tests, which might be invasive and/or only moderately accurate, with the potential benefits of better management of symptoms. This study provides important insights into predictive testing. Besides supporting clinical decision making, the development of predictive testing in RA is largely supported by patients. Developing strategies which communicate risk information about predictive testing effectively while reducing the psychological burden associated with this information will be essential to maximise uptake.

The importance of negative predictive value (NPV) of vulnerable elderly survey (VES 13) as a pre-screening test in older patients with cancer.

PubMed

Castagneto, B; Di Pietrantonj, C; Stevani, I; Anfossi, A; Arzese, M; Giorcelli, L; Giaretto, L

2013-12-01

The importance of prognostic value of the comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) is well known in geriatric oncology, but there is no consensus on the use of alternative abbreviated screening methods for the evaluation of older patient disabilities. The participants in this study underwent vulnerable elderly survey 13 (VES 13) at first entry in Oncology Department and were later assessed by a geriatrician according to CGA. A score >3 for VES 13 identified patients as vulnerable. Aim of this study was to evaluate the specificity, sensibility, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of VES 13 versus cumulative illness rating scale (CIRS), activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and short portable mental status questionnaire (SPMSQ). Hundred and seventeen patients (mean age 78.8 years) entered the study. The NPV of VES was 74.6% for CIRS, 90.1% for IADL, 93.0% for ADL, and 100% for SPMSQ. As for PPV, the VES 13 showed no accuracy. We can conclude that VES 13 demonstrated sufficient accuracy as a screening test in identifying elderly "fit" patients in order to spare the more time-consuming CGA.

Utility of Pretest Probability and Exercise Treadmill Test in Korean Women with Suspected Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Kim, Yong-Hyun; Shim, Wan-Joo; Kim, Myung-A; Hong, Kyung-Soon; Shin, Mi-Seung; Park, Seong-Mi; Cho, Kyoung Im; Kim, Mina; Kim, Sihun; Kim, Hak-Lyoung; Yoon, Hyun-Ju; Na, Jin-Oh; Kim, Sung-Eun

2016-06-01

Pretest probability (PTP) and an exercise treadmill test (ETT) are recommended for the initial evaluation of possible coronary artery disease (CAD), but the applicability of these tests in Korean women has not been evaluated. Korean women with PTP, ETT, and invasive coronary angiography results were enrolled. Across all PTP levels, PTP and ETT statistics were evaluated and independent CAD predictors obtained. Of the 335 patients (mean age 58.0 ± 10.2 years), 99 and 236 were in the low (LPTP) and intermediate PTP (IPTP) groups, respectively. The observed prevalence of CAD was significantly lower than the PTP. (7.1% vs. 9.1 ± 4.9% in LPTP, p < 0.001; 23.3% vs. 33.0 ± 15.1% in IPTP, p < 0.001) The ETT's sensitivity and positive predictive values (PPVs) appeared lower than previously reported (LPTP: 42.9% and 16.7%; IPTP: 61.8% and 37.0%), whereas the negative predictive values (NPVs) were higher (LPTP: 95.1%; IPTP: 85.4%). After multivariate adjustments, positive ETT (odds ratio 3.276, 95% confidence interval 1.643-6.532, p = 0.001) independently predicted the presence of CAD, but the PTP showed only marginal predictability (odds ratio 1.019, 95% confidence interval 0.998-1.041, p = 0.069). In Korean women, the observed prevalence of CAD was lower than the PTP, and PTP showed only marginal CAD predictability. Although a positive ETT independently predicted CAD, the ETT showed lower sensitivity and PPVs than previously reported. Despite the limited value of PTP and ETT, the high NPVs of ETT appear useful for saving patients from unnecessary further examinations.

Human papillomavirus DNA testing as an adjunct to cytology in cervical screening programs.

PubMed

Lörincz, Attila T; Richart, Ralph M

2003-08-01

Our objective was to review current large studies of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing as an adjunct to the Papanicolaou test for cervical cancer screening programs. We analyzed 10 large screening studies that used the Hybrid Capture 2 test and 3 studies that used the polymerase chain reaction test in a manner that enabled reliable estimates of accuracy for detecting or predicting high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). Most studies allowed comparison of HPV DNA and Papanicolaou testing and estimates of the performance of Papanicolaou and HPV DNA as combined tests. The studies were selected on the basis of a sufficient number of cases of high-grade CIN and cancer to provide meaningful statistical values. Investigators had to demonstrate the ability to generate reasonably reliable Hybrid Capture 2 or polymerase chain reaction data that were either minimally biased by nature of study design or that permitted analytical techniques for addressing issues of study bias to be applied. Studies had to provide data for the calculation of test sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, odds ratios, relative risks, confidence intervals, and other relevant measures. Final data were abstracted directly from published articles or estimated from descriptive statistics presented in the articles. In some studies, new analyses were performed from raw data supplied by the principal investigators. We concluded that HPV DNA testing was a more sensitive indicator for prevalent high-grade CIN than either conventional or liquid cytology. A combination of HPV DNA and Papanicolaou testing had almost 100% sensitivity and negative predictive value. The specificity of the combined tests was slightly lower than the specificity of the Papanicolaou test alone, but this decrease could potentially be offset by greater protection from neoplastic progression and cost savings available from extended screening intervals. One "double-negative" HPV DNA and Papanicolaou test indicated better prognostic assurance against risk of future CIN 3 than 3 subsequent negative conventional Papanicolaou tests and may safely allow 3-year screening intervals for such low-risk women.

The predictive value of quantitative fibronectin testing in combination with cervical length measurement in symptomatic women.

PubMed

Bruijn, Merel M C; Kamphuis, Esme I; Hoesli, Irene M; Martinez de Tejada, Begoña; Loccufier, Anne R; Kühnert, Maritta; Helmer, Hanns; Franz, Marie; Porath, Martina M; Oudijk, Martijn A; Jacquemyn, Yves; Schulzke, Sven M; Vetter, Grit; Hoste, Griet; Vis, Jolande Y; Kok, Marjolein; Mol, Ben W J; van Baaren, Gert-Jan

2016-12-01

The combination of the qualitative fetal fibronectin test and cervical length measurement has a high negative predictive value for preterm birth within 7 days; however, positive prediction is poor. A new bedside quantitative fetal fibronectin test showed potential additional value over the conventional qualitative test, but there is limited evidence on the combination with cervical length measurement. The purpose of this study was to compare quantitative fetal fibronectin and qualitative fetal fibronectin testing in the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days in symptomatic women who undergo cervical length measurement. We performed a European multicenter cohort study in 10 perinatal centers in 5 countries. Women between 24 and 34 weeks of gestation with signs of active labor and intact membranes underwent quantitative fibronectin testing and cervical length measurement. We assessed the risk of preterm birth within 7 days in predefined strata based on fibronectin concentration and cervical length. Of 455 women who were included in the study, 48 women (11%) delivered within 7 days. A combination of cervical length and qualitative fibronectin resulted in the identification of 246 women who were at low risk: 164 women with a cervix between 15 and 30 mm and a negative fibronectin test (<50 ng/mL; preterm birth rate, 2%) and 82 women with a cervix at >30 mm (preterm birth rate, 2%). Use of quantitative fibronectin alone resulted in a predicted risk of preterm birth within 7 days that ranged from 2% in the group with the lowest fibronectin level (<10 ng/mL) to 38% in the group with the highest fibronectin level (>500 ng/mL), with similar accuracy as that of the combination of cervical length and qualitative fibronectin. Combining cervical length and quantitative fibronectin resulted in the identification of an additional 19 women at low risk (preterm birth rate, 5%), using a threshold of 10 ng/mL in women with a cervix at <15 mm, and 6 women at high risk (preterm birth rate, 33%) using a threshold of >500 ng/mL in women with a cervix at >30 mm. In women with threatened preterm birth, quantitative fibronectin testing alone performs equal to the combination of cervical length and qualitative fibronectin. Possibly, the combination of quantitative fibronectin testing and cervical length increases this predictive capacity. Cost-effectiveness analysis and the availability of these tests in a local setting should determine the final choice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of genotoxic potential of cosmetic ingredients by an in silico battery system consisting of a combination of an expert rule-based system and a statistics-based system.

PubMed

Aiba née Kaneko, Maki; Hirota, Morihiko; Kouzuki, Hirokazu; Mori, Masaaki

2015-02-01

Genotoxicity is the most commonly used endpoint to predict the carcinogenicity of chemicals. The International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) M7 Guideline on Assessment and Control of DNA Reactive (Mutagenic) Impurities in Pharmaceuticals to Limit Potential Carcinogenic Risk offers guidance on (quantitative) structure-activity relationship ((Q)SAR) methodologies that predict the outcome of bacterial mutagenicity assay for actual and potential impurities. We examined the effectiveness of the (Q)SAR approach with the combination of DEREK NEXUS as an expert rule-based system and ADMEWorks as a statistics-based system for the prediction of not only mutagenic potential in the Ames test, but also genotoxic potential in mutagenicity and clastogenicity tests, using a data set of 342 chemicals extracted from the literature. The prediction of mutagenic potential or genotoxic potential by DEREK NEXUS or ADMEWorks showed high values of sensitivity and concordance, while prediction by the combination of DEREK NEXUS and ADMEWorks (battery system) showed the highest values of sensitivity and concordance among the three methods, but the lowest value of specificity. The number of false negatives was reduced with the battery system. We also separately predicted the mutagenic potential and genotoxic potential of 41 cosmetic ingredients listed in the International Nomenclature of Cosmetic Ingredients (INCI) among the 342 chemicals. Although specificity was low with the battery system, sensitivity and concordance were high. These results suggest that the battery system consisting of DEREK NEXUS and ADMEWorks is useful for prediction of genotoxic potential of chemicals, including cosmetic ingredients.

Predictive power of Koplik's spots for the diagnosis of measles.

PubMed

Zenner, Dominik; Nacul, Luis

2012-03-12

Measles is a major cause of mortality globally. In many countries, management of measles is based on clinical suspicion, but the predictive value of clinical diagnosis depends on knowledge and population prevalence of measles. In the pre-vaccine era with high measles incidence, Koplik's spots (KS) were said to be "pathognomonic". This study prospectively evaluated test properties and diagnostic odds ratios (OR) of KS. Data including KS status were prospectively collected for a six-month period on all suspected measles cases reported to the North-West London Health Protection Unit. Saliva test kits were sent to all cases and KS test properties were analysed against measles confirmation by PCR or IgM testing (gold standard). The positive predictive value (PPV) of clinically suspecting measles was 50%. Using KS as diagnostic tool improved the PPV to 80% and the presence of KS was associated with confirmed measles in the multi-variable analysis (OR 7.2, 95% Confidence Interval 2.1-24.9, p=0.001). We found that Koplik's spots were highly predictive of confirmed measles and could be a good clinical tool to enable prompt measles management and control measures, as action often needs to be taken in the absence of laboratory confirmation. We suggest that current clinical case definitions might benefit from the inclusion of KS.

Impact of relationships between test and training animals and among training animals on reliability of genomic prediction.

PubMed

Wu, X; Lund, M S; Sun, D; Zhang, Q; Su, G

2015-10-01

One of the factors affecting the reliability of genomic prediction is the relationship among the animals of interest. This study investigated the reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to the relationship between test and training animals, and among animals within the training data set. Different training data sets were generated from EuroGenomics data and a group of Nordic Holstein bulls (born in 2005 and afterwards) as a common test data set. Genomic breeding values were predicted using a genomic best linear unbiased prediction model and a Bayesian mixture model. The results showed that a closer relationship between test and training animals led to a higher reliability of genomic predictions for the test animals, while a closer relationship among training animals resulted in a lower reliability. In addition, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to a slightly higher reliability of genomic prediction, especially for the scenario of distant relationships between training and test animals. Therefore, to prevent a decrease in reliability, constant updates of the training population with animals from more recent generations are required. Moreover, a training population consisting of less-related animals is favourable for reliability of genomic prediction. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Delmau, L.H.; Haverlock, T.J.; Sloop, F.V., Jr.

This report presents the work that followed the CSSX model development completed in FY2002. The developed cesium and potassium extraction model was based on extraction data obtained from simple aqueous media. It was tested to ensure the validity of the prediction for the cesium extraction from actual waste. Compositions of the actual tank waste were obtained from the Savannah River Site personnel and were used to prepare defined simulants and to predict cesium distribution ratios using the model. It was therefore possible to compare the cesium distribution ratios obtained from the actual waste, the simulant, and the predicted values. Itmore » was determined that the predicted values agree with the measured values for the simulants. Predicted values also agreed, with three exceptions, with measured values for the tank wastes. Discrepancies were attributed in part to the uncertainty in the cation/anion balance in the actual waste composition, but likely more so to the uncertainty in the potassium concentration in the waste, given the demonstrated large competing effect of this metal on cesium extraction. It was demonstrated that the upper limit for the potassium concentration in the feed ought to not exceed 0.05 M in order to maintain suitable cesium distribution ratios.« less

Cytomegalovirus frequency in neonatal intrahepatic cholestasis determined by serology, histology, immunohistochemistry and PCR

PubMed Central

Bellomo-Brandao, Maria Angela; Andrade, Paula D; Costa, Sandra CB; Escanhoela, Cecilia AF; Vassallo, Jose; Porta, Gilda; De Tommaso, Adriana MA; Hessel, Gabriel

2009-01-01

AIM: To determine cytomegalovirus (CMV) frequency in neonatal intrahepatic cholestasis by serology, histological revision (searching for cytomegalic cells), immunohistochemistry, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and to verify the relationships among these methods. METHODS: The study comprised 101 non-consecutive infants submitted for hepatic biopsy between March 1982 and December 2005. Serological results were obtained from the patient’s files and the other methods were performed on paraffin-embedded liver samples from hepatic biopsies. The following statistical measures were calculated: frequency, sensibility, specific positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy. RESULTS: The frequencies of positive results were as follows: serology, 7/64 (11%); histological revision, 0/84; immunohistochemistry, 1/44 (2%), and PCR, 6/77 (8%). Only one patient had positive immunohistochemical findings and a positive PCR. The following statistical measures were calculated between PCR and serology: sensitivity, 33.3%; specificity, 88.89%; positive predictive value, 28.57%; negative predictive value, 90.91%; and accuracy, 82.35%. CONCLUSION: The frequency of positive CMV varied among the tests. Serology presented the highest positive frequency. When compared to PCR, the sensitivity and positive predictive value of serology were low. PMID:19610143

Fecal immunochemical test for predicting mucosal healing in ulcerative colitis patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dai, Cong; Jiang, Min; Sun, Ming-Jun; Cao, Qin

2018-05-01

Fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is a promising marker for assessment of inflammatory bowel disease activity. However, the utility of FIT for predicting mucosal healing (MH) of ulcerative colitis (UC) patients has yet to be clearly demonstrated. The objective of our study was to perform a diagnostic test accuracy test meta-analysis evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of FIT in predicting MH of UC patients. We systematically searched the databases from inception to November 2017 that evaluated MH in UC. The methodological quality of each study was assessed according to the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies checklist. The extracted data were pooled using a summary receiver operating characteristic curve model. Random-effects model was used to summarize the diagnostic odds ratio, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio. Six studies comprising 625 UC patients were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity and specificity values for predicting MH in UC were 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.81) and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.76-0.85), respectively. The FIT level had a high rule-in value (positive likelihood ratio, 3.79; 95% CI, 2.85-5.03) and a moderate rule-out value (negative likelihood ratio, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.16-0.43) for predicting MH in UC. The results of the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (area under the curve, 0.88; standard error of the mean, 0.02) and diagnostic odds ratio (18.08; 95% CI, 9.57-34.13) also revealed improved discrimination for identifying MH in UC with FIT concentration. Our meta-analysis has found that FIT is a simple, reliable non-invasive marker for predicting MH in UC patients. © 2018 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Development of Decision Support Formulas for the Prediction of Bladder Outlet Obstruction and Prostatic Surgery in Patients With Lower Urinary Tract Symptom/Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia: Part II, External Validation and Usability Testing of a Smartphone App.

PubMed

Choo, Min Soo; Jeong, Seong Jin; Cho, Sung Yong; Yoo, Changwon; Jeong, Chang Wook; Ku, Ja Hyeon; Oh, Seung-June

2017-04-01

We aimed to externally validate the prediction model we developed for having bladder outlet obstruction (BOO) and requiring prostatic surgery using 2 independent data sets from tertiary referral centers, and also aimed to validate a mobile app for using this model through usability testing. Formulas and nomograms predicting whether a subject has BOO and needs prostatic surgery were validated with an external validation cohort from Seoul National University Bundang Hospital and Seoul Metropolitan Government-Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center between January 2004 and April 2015. A smartphone-based app was developed, and 8 young urologists were enrolled for usability testing to identify any human factor issues of the app. A total of 642 patients were included in the external validation cohort. No significant differences were found in the baseline characteristics of major parameters between the original (n=1,179) and the external validation cohort, except for the maximal flow rate. Predictions of requiring prostatic surgery in the validation cohort showed a sensitivity of 80.6%, a specificity of 73.2%, a positive predictive value of 49.7%, and a negative predictive value of 92.0%, and area under receiver operating curve of 0.84. The calibration plot indicated that the predictions have good correspondence. The decision curve showed also a high net benefit. Similar evaluation results using the external validation cohort were seen in the predictions of having BOO. Overall results of the usability test demonstrated that the app was user-friendly with no major human factor issues. External validation of these newly developed a prediction model demonstrated a moderate level of discrimination, adequate calibration, and high net benefit gains for predicting both having BOO and requiring prostatic surgery. Also a smartphone app implementing the prediction model was user-friendly with no major human factor issue.

Computational substrates of social value in interpersonal collaboration.

PubMed

Fareri, Dominic S; Chang, Luke J; Delgado, Mauricio R

2015-05-27

Decisions to engage in collaborative interactions require enduring considerable risk, yet provide the foundation for building and maintaining relationships. Here, we investigate the mechanisms underlying this process and test a computational model of social value to predict collaborative decision making. Twenty-six participants played an iterated trust game and chose to invest more frequently with their friends compared with a confederate or computer despite equal reinforcement rates. This behavior was predicted by our model, which posits that people receive a social value reward signal from reciprocation of collaborative decisions conditional on the closeness of the relationship. This social value signal was associated with increased activity in the ventral striatum and medial prefrontal cortex, which significantly predicted the reward parameters from the social value model. Therefore, we demonstrate that the computation of social value drives collaborative behavior in repeated interactions and provide a mechanistic account of reward circuit function instantiating this process. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/358170-11$15.00/0.

[Development and validation of an algorithm to identify cancer recurrences from hospital data bases].

PubMed

Manzanares-Laya, S; Burón, A; Murta-Nascimento, C; Servitja, S; Castells, X; Macià, F

2014-01-01

Hospital cancer registries and hospital databases are valuable and efficient sources of information for research into cancer recurrences. The aim of this study was to develop and validate algorithms for the detection of breast cancer recurrence. A retrospective observational study was conducted on breast cancer cases from the cancer registry of a third level university hospital diagnosed between 2003 and 2009. Different probable cancer recurrence algorithms were obtained by linking the hospital databases and the construction of several operational definitions, with their corresponding sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. A total of 1,523 patients were diagnosed of breast cancer between 2003 and 2009. A request for bone gammagraphy after 6 months from the first oncological treatment showed the highest sensitivity (53.8%) and negative predictive value (93.8%), and a pathology test after 6 months after the diagnosis showed the highest specificity (93.8%) and negative predictive value (92.6%). The combination of different definitions increased the specificity and the positive predictive value, but decreased the sensitivity. Several diagnostic algorithms were obtained, and the different definitions could be useful depending on the interest and resources of the researcher. A higher positive predictive value could be interesting for a quick estimation of the number of cases, and a higher negative predictive value for a more exact estimation if more resources are available. It is a versatile and adaptable tool for other types of tumors, as well as for the needs of the researcher. Copyright © 2014 SECA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Clinical relevance of total HCV core antigen testing for hepatitis C monitoring and for predicting patients' response to therapy.

PubMed

Maynard, M; Pradat, P; Berthillon, P; Picchio, G; Voirin, N; Martinot, M; Marcellin, P; Trepo, C

2003-07-01

To study the correlation between total Hepatitis C virus (HCV) Core antigen (Ag) and HCV-RNA, and to assess the proficiency of HCV Core Ag testing in monitoring and predicting virologic response during and after pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN) and ribavirin combination therapy. A total of 307 samples from treated and untreated patients were used to assess the correlation between the total HCV Core Ag test and quantitative HCV-RNA assays (Superquant, and Quantiplex branched DNA 2.0 assay). Twenty-four patients received combination therapy for 48 weeks. Blood samples were collected at day 0, and week 2, 4, 12, 24, 48 and 72 for virologic evaluation. A linear relation exists between total HCV Core Ag and HCV-RNA levels. At 3 months the positive predictive value (PPV) of response to therapy was 100% with either HCV Core Ag or HCV-RNA. For HCV Core Ag the negative predictive value (NPV) was 100% whereas for HCV-RNA the NPV was 80% (P > 0.05). At month 1, the PPV was 95% and 100% when determined by HCV Core Ag and HCV-RNA, respectively. The NPV value was 100% for HCV Core Ag and 33% for HCV-RNA (P = 0.005). HCV Core Ag quantification could be useful in clinical practice to predict a sustained virological response early during therapy (4 weeks), reaching an optimal performance at month 3. The determination of total HCV Core Ag levels in serum, constitutes an accurate and reliable alternative to HCV-RNA for monitoring and predicting treatment outcome in patients receiving PEG-IFN/Ribavirin combination therapy.

Can the biomass-ratio hypothesis predict mixed-species litter decomposition along a climatic gradient?

PubMed Central

Tardif, Antoine; Shipley, Bill; Bloor, Juliette M. G.; Soussana, Jean-François

2014-01-01

Background and Aims The biomass-ratio hypothesis states that ecosystem properties are driven by the characteristics of dominant species in the community. In this study, the hypothesis was operationalized as community-weighted means (CWMs) of monoculture values and tested for predicting the decomposition of multispecies litter mixtures along an abiotic gradient in the field. Methods Decomposition rates (mg g−1 d−1) of litter from four herb species were measured using litter-bed experiments with the same soil at three sites in central France along a correlated climatic gradient of temperature and precipitation. All possible combinations from one to four species mixtures were tested over 28 weeks of incubation. Observed mixture decomposition rates were compared with those predicted by the biomass-ratio hypothesis. Variability of the prediction errors was compared with the species richness of the mixtures, across sites, and within sites over time. Key Results Both positive and negative prediction errors occurred. Despite this, the biomass-ratio hypothesis was true as an average claim for all sites (r = 0·91) and for each site separately, except for the climatically intermediate site, which showed mainly synergistic deviations. Variability decreased with increasing species richness and in less favourable climatic conditions for decomposition. Conclusions Community-weighted mean values provided good predictions of mixed-species litter decomposition, converging to the predicted values with increasing species richness and in climates less favourable to decomposition. Under a context of climate change, abiotic variability would be important to take into account when predicting ecosystem processes. PMID:24482152

External prognostic validations and comparisons of age- and gender-adjusted exercise capacity predictions.

PubMed

Kim, Esther S H; Ishwaran, Hemant; Blackstone, Eugene; Lauer, Michael S

2007-11-06

The purpose of this study was to externally validate the prognostic value of age- and gender-based nomograms and categorical definitions of impaired exercise capacity (EC). Exercise capacity predicts death, but its use in routine clinical practice is hampered by its close correlation with age and gender. For a median of 5 years, we followed 22,275 patients without known heart disease who underwent symptom-limited stress testing. Models for predicted or impaired EC were identified by literature search. Gender-specific multivariable proportional hazards models were constructed. Four methods were used to assess validity: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), right-censored c-index in 100 out-of-bootstrap samples, the Nagelkerke Index R2, and calculation of calibration error in 100 bootstrap samples. There were 646 and 430 deaths in 13,098 men and 9,177 women, respectively. Of the 7 models tested in men, a model based on a Veterans Affairs cohort (predicted metabolic equivalents [METs] = 18 - [0.15 x age]) had the highest AIC and R2. In women, a model based on the St. James Take Heart Project (predicted METs = 14.7 - [0.13 x age]) performed best. Categorical definitions of fitness performed less well. Even after accounting for age and gender, there was still an important interaction with age, whereby predicted EC was a weaker predictor in older subjects (p for interaction <0.001 in men and 0.003 in women). Several methods describe EC accounting for age and gender-related differences, but their ability to predict mortality differ. Simple cutoff values fail to fully describe EC's strong predictive value.

[The tuberculin skin test in BCG-vaccinated individualse].

PubMed

Miret Cuadras, P; Pina Gutiérrez, J M

1998-10-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the tuberculin skin test in individuals vaccinated with bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) using 2 IU of RT-23. One hundred ninety-six individuals aged 22-40 years-old who had been vaccinated with BCG between 1965 and 1974 were enrolled along with 375 non-vaccinated individuals of the same age and with similar level of risk of infection. The positive predictive value of the test was assessed for three levels of response as indicated by areas of thickening in three diameters: 5, 10 and 15 mm. Vaccinated individuals with negative results were given a second skin test 7 days later to detect a booster effect. Positive diameters 5 mm were observed in 66% of the vaccinated individuals and 24% of the non-vaccinated subjects. Positive diameters 10 mm were observed in 51% of the vaccinated individuals and 19% of the non vaccinated ones. Positive diameters 15 mm were observed in 29% of the vaccinated subjects and in 13% of the non vaccinated ones. The differences were significant for all diameters. The positive predictive value of the test was 36.4% for a diameter 5 mm, 37.6% for diameter 10 mm and 44.8% for diameter 15 mm. The booster effect was detected in 25.8% of the vaccinated individuals who had tested negative at first. In vaccinated individuals, no guidelines can be established to guarantee that a positive reaction is due to infection by Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, although the likelihood of infection (increased positive predictive value) increases with diameter. It is also impossible to fix a time limit. A second skin test is needed to detect a booster effect in all vaccinated individuals whose first test is negative.

Case-based statistical learning applied to SPECT image classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Górriz, Juan M.; Ramírez, Javier; Illán, I. A.; Martínez-Murcia, Francisco J.; Segovia, Fermín.; Salas-Gonzalez, Diego; Ortiz, A.

2017-03-01

Statistical learning and decision theory play a key role in many areas of science and engineering. Some examples include time series regression and prediction, optical character recognition, signal detection in communications or biomedical applications for diagnosis and prognosis. This paper deals with the topic of learning from biomedical image data in the classification problem. In a typical scenario we have a training set that is employed to fit a prediction model or learner and a testing set on which the learner is applied to in order to predict the outcome for new unseen patterns. Both processes are usually completely separated to avoid over-fitting and due to the fact that, in practice, the unseen new objects (testing set) have unknown outcomes. However, the outcome yields one of a discrete set of values, i.e. the binary diagnosis problem. Thus, assumptions on these outcome values could be established to obtain the most likely prediction model at the training stage, that could improve the overall classification accuracy on the testing set, or keep its performance at least at the level of the selected statistical classifier. In this sense, a novel case-based learning (c-learning) procedure is proposed which combines hypothesis testing from a discrete set of expected outcomes and a cross-validated classification stage.

Performance of diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis in North American furbearers and implications for surveillance.

PubMed

O'Brien, D J; Fierke, J S; Cooley, T M; Fitzgerald, S D; Cosgrove, M K; Schmitt, S M

2013-11-01

Risks of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) transmission from free-ranging wildlife to livestock remain a concern in the United States, in both known endemic areas and where spillover from recently-infected livestock herds occurs. Federal agriculture officials in the United States (US) have recommended surveillance of non-cervid furbearers to determine whether free-ranging wildlife in the vicinity of cattle herd breakdowns are bTB infected, yet the efficacy of common diagnostic tests in these species is largely unknown. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and positive likelihood ratios for bTB infection in carcasses of sixteen species of furbearers tested via: (i) the presence of gross lesions compatible with bTB; (ii) histopathology consistent with bTB; and (iii) the presence of acid-fast bacilli (AFB) on histopathology. The gold standard comparison test was mycobacterial culture of cranial ± visceral lymph nodes pooled for each animal. Forty-two animals distributed across six species cultured bTB positive from among 1522 furbearers tested over thirteen years. The sensitivity of all three tests was poor (10%, 22% and 24% for gross lesions, AFB and histopathology, respectively), while specificities (all ≥ 99%) and negative predictive values (all ≥ 97%) were high. Positive predictive values varied widely (31-75%). Likelihood ratios for culture positivity given a positive test result showed AFB on histopathology to be the most reliable test, and gross lesions the least, though confidence intervals were wide and overlapping. While non-cervid furbearers may prove useful in North American bTB surveillance, wildlife managers should be aware of factors that may abate their utility and complicate interpretation of surveillance. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Coupled molecular dynamics and continuum electrostatic method to compute the ionization pKa's of proteins as a function of pH. Test on a large set of proteins.

PubMed

Vorobjev, Yury N; Scheraga, Harold A; Vila, Jorge A

2018-02-01

A computational method, to predict the pKa values of the ionizable residues Asp, Glu, His, Tyr, and Lys of proteins, is presented here. Calculation of the electrostatic free-energy of the proteins is based on an efficient version of a continuum dielectric electrostatic model. The conformational flexibility of the protein is taken into account by carrying out molecular dynamics simulations of 10 ns in implicit water. The accuracy of the proposed method of calculation of pKa values is estimated from a test set of experimental pKa data for 297 ionizable residues from 34 proteins. The pKa-prediction test shows that, on average, 57, 86, and 95% of all predictions have an error lower than 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 pKa units, respectively. This work contributes to our general understanding of the importance of protein flexibility for an accurate computation of pKa, providing critical insight about the significance of the multiple neutral states of acid and histidine residues for pKa-prediction, and may spur significant progress in our effort to develop a fast and accurate electrostatic-based method for pKa-predictions of proteins as a function of pH.

Optimization of Regression Models of Experimental Data Using Confirmation Points

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulbrich, N.

2010-01-01

A new search metric is discussed that may be used to better assess the predictive capability of different math term combinations during the optimization of a regression model of experimental data. The new search metric can be determined for each tested math term combination if the given experimental data set is split into two subsets. The first subset consists of data points that are only used to determine the coefficients of the regression model. The second subset consists of confirmation points that are exclusively used to test the regression model. The new search metric value is assigned after comparing two values that describe the quality of the fit of each subset. The first value is the standard deviation of the PRESS residuals of the data points. The second value is the standard deviation of the response residuals of the confirmation points. The greater of the two values is used as the new search metric value. This choice guarantees that both standard deviations are always less or equal to the value that is used during the optimization. Experimental data from the calibration of a wind tunnel strain-gage balance is used to illustrate the application of the new search metric. The new search metric ultimately generates an optimized regression model that was already tested at regression model independent confirmation points before it is ever used to predict an unknown response from a set of regressors.

Thermal Mechanical Fatigue of Coated Blade Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-06-01

temperature and strain greatly affect TMF life. The temperature-strain phase angle may vary from 180 degrees out of phase, for fast transients at...simplified constitutive technique. The life prediction model was specifically not designed to be a constitutive excercise , and therefore the observed test...the actual test. In one case (S/N 25) the actual tensile stresses were larger than the predicted values. This was caused by intermittent problems with

Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anggraeni, Novia Antika

2015-04-01

The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano's inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 - 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between -2.86 up to 5.49 days.

Utility of urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) in diagnosing tuberculosis and predicting mortality with and without HIV: prospective TB cohort from the Thailand Big City TB Research Network.

PubMed

Suwanpimolkul, Gompol; Kawkitinarong, Kamon; Manosuthi, Weerawat; Sophonphan, Jiratchaya; Gatechompol, Sivaporn; Ohata, Pirapon June; Ubolyam, Sasiwimol; Iampornsin, Thatri; Katerattanakul, Pairaj; Avihingsanon, Anchalee; Ruxrungtham, Kiat

2017-06-01

To evaluate the applicability and accuracy of the urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) test in tuberculosis (TB)/HIV co-infected patients and HIV-negative patients with disseminated TB. Frozen urine samples obtained at baseline from patients in the TB research cohort with proven culture-positive TB were selected for blinded urine LAM testing. One hundred and nine patients were categorized into four groups: (1) HIV-positive patients with TB; (2) HIV-negative patients with disseminated TB; (3) HIV-negative immunocompromised patients with TB; and (4) patients with diseases other than TB. The sensitivity of urine LAM testing for culture-positive TB, specificity of urine LAM testing for patients without TB, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were assessed. The sensitivity of the urine LAM test in group 1 patients with a CD4 T-cell count of >100, ≤100, and ≤50 cells/mm 3 was 38.5%, 40.6%, and 45%, respectively. The specificity and PPV of the urine LAM test were >80%. The sensitivity of the test was 20% in group 2 and 12.5% in group 3, and the specificity and PPV were 100% for both groups. A positive urine LAM test result was significantly associated with death. This promising diagnostic tool could increase the yield of TB diagnosis and may predict the mortality rate of TB infection, particularly in TB/HIV co-infected patients. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anggraeni, Novia Antika, E-mail: novia.antika.a@gmail.com

The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration ofmore » the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.« less

Predictive value of cognition for different domains of outcome in recent-onset schizophrenia.

PubMed

Holthausen, Esther A E; Wiersma, Durk; Cahn, Wiepke; Kahn, René S; Dingemans, Peter M; Schene, Aart H; van den Bosch, Robert J

2007-01-15

The aim of this study was to see whether and how cognition predicts outcome in recent-onset schizophrenia in a large range of domains such as course of illness, self-care, interpersonal functioning, vocational functioning and need for care. At inclusion, 115 recent-onset patients were tested on a cognitive battery and 103 patients participated in the follow-up 2 years after inclusion. Differences in outcome between cognitively normal and cognitively impaired patients were also analysed. Cognitive measures at inclusion did not predict number of relapses, activities of daily living and interpersonal functioning. Time in psychosis or in full remission, as well as need for care, were partly predicted by specific cognitive measures. Although statistically significant, the predictive value of cognition with regard to clinical outcome was limited. There was a significant difference between patients with and without cognitive deficits in competitive employment status and vocational functioning. The predictive value of cognition for different social outcome domains varies. It seems that cognition most strongly predicts work performance, where having a cognitive deficit, regardless of the nature of the deficit, acts as a rate-limiting factor.

Clinical value of CT-based preoperative software assisted lung lobe volumetry for predicting postoperative pulmonary function after lung surgery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wormanns, Dag; Beyer, Florian; Hoffknecht, Petra; Dicken, Volker; Kuhnigk, Jan-Martin; Lange, Tobias; Thomas, Michael; Heindel, Walter

2005-04-01

This study was aimed to evaluate a morphology-based approach for prediction of postoperative forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) after lung resection from preoperative CT scans. Fifteen Patients with surgically treated (lobectomy or pneumonectomy) bronchogenic carcinoma were enrolled in the study. A preoperative chest CT and pulmonary function tests before and after surgery were performed. CT scans were analyzed by prototype software: automated segmentation and volumetry of lung lobes was performed with minimal user interaction. Determined volumes of different lung lobes were used to predict postoperative FEV1 as percentage of the preoperative values. Predicted FEV1 values were compared to the observed postoperative values as standard of reference. Patients underwent lobectomy in twelve cases (6 upper lobes; 1 middle lobe; 5 lower lobes; 6 right side; 6 left side) and pneumonectomy in three cases. Automated calculation of predicted postoperative lung function was successful in all cases. Predicted FEV1 ranged from 54% to 95% (mean 75% +/- 11%) of the preoperative values. Two cases with obviously erroneous LFT were excluded from analysis. Mean error of predicted FEV1 was 20 +/- 160 ml, indicating absence of systematic error; mean absolute error was 7.4 +/- 3.3% respective 137 +/- 77 ml/s. The 200 ml reproducibility criterion for FEV1 was met in 11 of 13 cases (85%). In conclusion, software-assisted prediction of postoperative lung function yielded a clinically acceptable agreement with the observed postoperative values. This method might add useful information for evaluation of functional operability of patients with lung cancer.

Interaction between polymer constituents and the structure of biopolymers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rein, R.

1974-01-01

The paper reviews the current status of methods for calculating intermolecular interactions between biopolymer units. The nature of forces contributing to the various domains of intermolecular separations is investigated, and various approximations applicable in the respective regions are examined. The predictive value of current theory is tested by establishing a connection with macroscopic properties and comparing the theoretical predicted values with those derived from experimental data. This has led to the introduction of a statistical model describing DNA.

Predictive modeling of surimi cake shelf life at different storage temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yatong; Hou, Yanhua; Wang, Quanfu; Cui, Bingqing; Zhang, Xiangyu; Li, Xuepeng; Li, Yujin; Liu, Yuanping

2017-04-01

The Arrhenius model of the shelf life prediction which based on the TBARS index was established in this study. The results showed that the significant changed of AV, POV, COV and TBARS with temperature increased, and the reaction rate constants k was obtained by the first order reaction kinetics model. Then the secondary model fitting was based on the Arrhenius equation. There was the optimal fitting accuracy of TBARS in the first and the secondary model fitting (R2≥0.95). The verification test indicated that the relative error between the shelf life model prediction value and actual value was within ±10%, suggesting the model could predict the shelf life of surimi cake.

Research on wind field algorithm of wind lidar based on BP neural network and grey prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yong; Chen, Chun-Li; Luo, Xiong; Zhang, Yan; Yang, Ze-hou; Zhou, Jie; Shi, Xiao-ding; Wang, Lei

2018-01-01

This paper uses the BP neural network and grey algorithm to forecast and study radar wind field. In order to reduce the residual error in the wind field prediction which uses BP neural network and grey algorithm, calculating the minimum value of residual error function, adopting the residuals of the gray algorithm trained by BP neural network, using the trained network model to forecast the residual sequence, using the predicted residual error sequence to modify the forecast sequence of the grey algorithm. The test data show that using the grey algorithm modified by BP neural network can effectively reduce the residual value and improve the prediction precision.

Development of reference equations for spirometry in Japanese children aged 6-18 years.

PubMed

Takase, Masato; Sakata, Hiroshi; Shikada, Masahiro; Tatara, Katsuyoshi; Fukushima, Takayoshi; Miyakawa, Tomoo

2013-01-01

Spirometry is the most widely used pulmonary function test and the measured values of spirometric parameters need to be evaluated using reference values predicted for the corresponding race, sex, age, and height. However, none of the existing reference equations for Japanese children covers the entire age range of 6-18 years. The Japanese Society of Pediatric Pulmonology had organized a working group in 2006, in order to develop a new set of national standard reference equations for commonly used spirometric parameters that are applicable through the age range of 6-18 years. Quality assured spirometric data were collected through 2006-2008, from 14 institutions in Japan. We applied multiple regression analysis, using age in years (A), square of age (A(2)), height in meters (H), square of height (H(2)), and the product of age and height (AH) as explanatory variables to predict forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV(1)), peak expiratory flow (PEF), forced expiratory flow between 25% and 75% of the FVC (FEF(25-75%)), instantaneous forced expiratory flow when 50% (FEF(50%)) or 75% (FEF(75%)) of the FVC have been expired. Finally, 1,296 tests (674 boys, 622 girls) formed the reference data set. Distributions of the percent predicted values did not differ by ages, confirming excellent fit of the prediction equations throughout the entire age range from 6 to 18 years. Cut-off values (around 5 percentile points) for the parameters were also determined. We recommend the use of this new set of prediction equations together with suggested cut-off values, for assessment of spirometry in Japanese children and adolescents. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

QSAR models for predicting octanol/water and organic carbon/water partition coefficients of polychlorinated biphenyls.

PubMed

Yu, S; Gao, S; Gan, Y; Zhang, Y; Ruan, X; Wang, Y; Yang, L; Shi, J

2016-04-01

Quantitative structure-property relationship modelling can be a valuable alternative method to replace or reduce experimental testing. In particular, some endpoints such as octanol-water (KOW) and organic carbon-water (KOC) partition coefficients of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are easier to predict and various models have been already developed. In this paper, two different methods, which are multiple linear regression based on the descriptors generated using Dragon software and hologram quantitative structure-activity relationships, were employed to predict suspended particulate matter (SPM) derived log KOC and generator column, shake flask and slow stirring method derived log KOW values of 209 PCBs. The predictive ability of the derived models was validated using a test set. The performances of all these models were compared with EPI Suite™ software. The results indicated that the proposed models were robust and satisfactory, and could provide feasible and promising tools for the rapid assessment of the SPM derived log KOC and generator column, shake flask and slow stirring method derived log KOW values of PCBs.

Orion Pad Abort 1 Crew Module Inertia Test Approach and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herrera, Claudia; Harding, Adam

2010-01-01

The Flight Loads Laboratory at the Dryden Flight Research Center conducted tests to measure the inertia properties of the Orion Pad Abort 1 (PA-1) Crew Module. These measurements were taken to validate analytical predictions of the inertia properties of the vehicle and assist in reducing uncertainty for derived aero performance results calculated post launch. The first test conducted was to determine the Ixx of the Crew Module. This test approach used a modified torsion pendulum test step up that allowed the suspended Crew Module to rotate about the x axis. The second test used a different approach to measure both the Iyy and Izz properties. This test used a Knife Edge fixture that allowed small rotation of the Crew Module about the y and z axes. Discussions of the techniques and equations used to accomplish each test are presented. Comparisons with the predicted values used for the final flight calculations are made. Problem areas, with explanations and recommendations where available, are addressed. Finally, an evaluation of the value and success of these techniques to measure the moments of inertia of the Crew Module is provided.

Role of procalcitonin in predicting dilating vesicoureteral reflux in young children hospitalized with a first febrile urinary tract infection.

PubMed

Sun, Hai-Lun; Wu, Kang-Hsi; Chen, Shan-Ming; Chao, Yu-Hua; Ku, Min-Sho; Hung, Tong-Wei; Liao, Pen-Fen; Lue, Ko-Huang; Sheu, Ji-Nan

2013-09-01

The aim of this article was to assess the usefulness of procalcitonin (PCT) as a marker for predicting dilating (grades III-V) vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) in young children with a first febrile urinary tract infection. Children ≤2 years of age with a first febrile urinary tract infection were prospectively evaluated. Serum samples were tested for PCT at the time of admission to a tertiary hospital. All children underwent renal ultrasonography (US), Tc-dimercaptosuccinic acid renal scan, and voiding cystourethrography. The diagnostic characteristics of PCT test for acute pyelonephritis and dilating VUR were calculated. Of 272 children analyzed (168 boys and 104 girls; median age, 5 months), 169 (62.1%) had acute pyelonephritis. There was VUR demonstrated in 97 (35.7%), including 70 (25.7%) with dilating VUR. The median PCT value was significantly higher in children with VUR than in those without (P < 0.001). Using a PCT cutoff value of ≥1.0 ng/mL, the sensitivity and negative predictive value for predicting dilating VUR were 94.3% and 95.4%, respectively, for PCT, and 97.1% and 97.8%, respectively, for the combined PCT and US studies, whereas the positive and negative likelihood ratios were 2.03 and 0.107, respectively, for PCT, and 1.72 and 0.067, respectively, for the combined studies. By multivariate analysis, high PCT values and abnormalities on US were independent predictors of dilating VUR. PCT is useful for diagnosing acute pyelonephritis and predicting dilating VUR in young children with a first febrile urinary tract infection. A voiding cystourethrography is indicated only in children with high PCT values (≥1.0 ng/mL) and/or abnormalities found on a US.

Experience using the «Shetty test» for initial foot and ankle fracture screening in the Emergency Department.

PubMed

Ojeda-Jiménez, J; Méndez-Ojeda, M M; Martín-Vélez, P; Tejero-García, S; Pais-Brito, J L; Herrera-Pérez, M

2018-03-20

The indiscriminate practice of radiographs for foot and ankle injuries is not justified and numerous studies have corroborated the usefulness of clinical screening tests such as the Ottawa Ankle Rules. The aim of our study is to clinically validate the so-called Shetty Test in our area. A cross-sectional observational study by applying the Shetty test to patients seen in the Emergency Department. We enrolled 100 patients with an average age of 39.25 (16-86). The Shetty test was positive on 14 occasions. Subsequent radiography revealed a fracture in 10 cases: 4 were false positives. The test was negative in the remaining 86 patients and radiography confirmed the absence of fracture (with sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 95.56%, positive predictive value of 71.40%, and negative predictive value of 100%). The Shetty test is a valid clinical screening tool to decide whether simple radiography is indicated for foot and ankle injuries. It is a simple, quick and reproducible test. Copyright © 2018 SECOT. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Understanding the properties of diagnostic tests - Part 2: Likelihood ratios.

PubMed

Ranganathan, Priya; Aggarwal, Rakesh

2018-01-01

Diagnostic tests are used to identify subjects with and without disease. In a previous article in this series, we examined some attributes of diagnostic tests - sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. In this second article, we look at likelihood ratios, which are useful for the interpretation of diagnostic test results in everyday clinical practice.

The accuracy of confrontation visual field test in comparison with automated perimetry.

PubMed Central

Johnson, L. N.; Baloh, F. G.

1991-01-01

The accuracy of confrontation visual field testing was determined for 512 visual fields using automated static perimetry as the reference standard. The sensitivity of confrontation testing excluding patchy defects was 40% for detecting anterior visual field defects, 68.3% for posterior defects, and 50% for both anterior and posterior visual field defects combined. The sensitivity within each group varied depending on the type of visual field defect encountered. Confrontation testing had a high sensitivity (75% to 100%) for detecting altitudinal visual loss, central/centrocecal scotoma, and homonymous hemianopsia. Confrontation testing was fairly insensitive (20% to 50% sensitivity) for detecting arcuate scotoma and bitemporal hemianopsia. The specificity of confrontation testing was high at 93.4%. The high positive predictive value (72.6%) and negative predictive value (75.7%) would indicate that visual field defects identified during confrontation testing are often true visual field defects. However, the many limitations of confrontation testing should be remembered, particularly its low sensitivity for detecting visual field loss associated with parasellar tumors, glaucoma, and compressive optic neuropathies. PMID:1800764

Predictive Contribution of Neutrophil/Lymphocyte Ratio in Diagnosis of Brucellosis

PubMed Central

Olt, Serdar; Ergenç, Hasan; Açıkgöz, Seyyid Bilal

2015-01-01

Here we wanted to investigate predictive value of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in the diagnosis of brucellosis. Thirty-two brucellosis patients diagnosed with positive serum agglutination test and thirty-two randomized healthy subjects were enrolled in this study retrospectively. Result with ROC analyzes the baseline NLR and hemoglobin values were found to be significantly associated with brucellosis (P = 0.01, P = 0.01, resp.). Herein we demonstrated for the first time that NLR values were significantly associated with brucellosis. This situation can help clinicians during diagnosis of brucellosis. PMID:25722970

Development of an artificial neural network model for risk assessment of skin sensitization using human cell line activation test, direct peptide reactivity assay, KeratinoSens™ and in silico structure alert parameter.

PubMed

Hirota, Morihiko; Ashikaga, Takao; Kouzuki, Hirokazu

2018-04-01

It is important to predict the potential of cosmetic ingredients to cause skin sensitization, and in accordance with the European Union cosmetic directive for the replacement of animal tests, several in vitro tests based on the adverse outcome pathway have been developed for hazard identification, such as the direct peptide reactivity assay, KeratinoSens™ and the human cell line activation test. Here, we describe the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) prediction model for skin sensitization risk assessment based on the integrated testing strategy concept, using direct peptide reactivity assay, KeratinoSens™, human cell line activation test and an in silico or structure alert parameter. We first investigated the relationship between published murine local lymph node assay EC3 values, which represent skin sensitization potency, and in vitro test results using a panel of about 134 chemicals for which all the required data were available. Predictions based on ANN analysis using combinations of parameters from all three in vitro tests showed a good correlation with local lymph node assay EC3 values. However, when the ANN model was applied to a testing set of 28 chemicals that had not been included in the training set, predicted EC3s were overestimated for some chemicals. Incorporation of an additional in silico or structure alert descriptor (obtained with TIMES-M or Toxtree software) in the ANN model improved the results. Our findings suggest that the ANN model based on the integrated testing strategy concept could be useful for evaluating the skin sensitization potential. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Microbiology of liver abscesses and the predictive value of abscess gram stain and associated blood cultures.

PubMed

Chemaly, Roy F; Hall, Gerri S; Keys, Thomas F; Procop, Gary W

2003-08-01

Although rare, pyogenic liver abscesses are potentially fatal. We evaluated the predictive value of Gram stain of liver abscess aspirates and temporally associated blood cultures. Gram stains detected bacteria in 79% of the liver abscesses tested. The sensitivity and specificity of Gram stain of the liver abscesses were 90% and 100% for Gram-positive cocci (GPC) and 52% and 94% for Gram-negative bacilli (GNB). The sensitivities of the blood cultures for any GPC and GNB present in the liver abscess were 30% and 39%, respectively. Although, Gram stains and blood cultures offer incomplete detection of the microbial contents of pyogenic liver abscesses, both tests should always accompany liver abscess cultures.

Clinical usefulness of the clock drawing test applying rasch analysis in predicting of cognitive impairment.

PubMed

Yoo, Doo Han; Lee, Jae Shin

2016-07-01

[Purpose] This study examined the clinical usefulness of the clock drawing test applying Rasch analysis for predicting the level of cognitive impairment. [Subjects and Methods] A total of 187 stroke patients with cognitive impairment were enrolled in this study. The 187 patients were evaluated by the clock drawing test developed through Rasch analysis along with the mini-mental state examination of cognitive evaluation tool. An analysis of the variance was performed to examine the significance of the mini-mental state examination and the clock drawing test according to the general characteristics of the subjects. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to determine the cutoff point for cognitive impairment and to calculate the sensitivity and specificity values. [Results] The results of comparison of the clock drawing test with the mini-mental state showed significant differences in according to gender, age, education, and affected side. A total CDT of 10.5, which was selected as the cutoff point to identify cognitive impairement, showed a sensitivity, specificity, Youden index, positive predictive, and negative predicive values of 86.4%, 91.5%, 0.8, 95%, and 88.2%. [Conclusion] The clock drawing test is believed to be useful in assessments and interventions based on its excellent ability to identify cognitive disorders.

Vapor Pressure and Predicted Stability of American Contact Dermatitis Society Core Allergens

PubMed Central

Jou, Paul C.; Siegel, Paul D.; Warshaw, Erin M.

2018-01-01

Background Accurate patch testing is reliant on proper preparation of patch test allergens. The stability of patch test allergens is dependent on several factors including vapor pressure (VP). Objective This investigation reviews the VP of American Contact Dermatitis Society Core Allergens and compares stability predictions based on VP with those established through clinical testing. Methods Standard references were accessed for determining VP in millimeters of mercury and associated temperature in degrees celsius. If multiple values were listed, VP at temperatures that most approximate indoor storage conditions (20°C and 25°C) were chosen. For mixes, the individual component with the highest VP was chosen as the overall VP, assuming that the most volatile substance would evaporate first. Antigens were grouped into low (≤0.001 mm Hg), moderate (<1 to >0.001 mm Hg), and high (≥1 mm Hg) volatility using arbitrary cutoff values. Conclusions This review is consistent with previously reported data on formaldehyde, acrylates, and fragrance material instability. Given lack of testing data, VP can be useful in predicting patch test compound stability. Measures such as air-tight multidose reagent containers, sealed single-application dispensers, preparation of patches immediately before application, and storage at lower temperatures may remedy some of these issues. PMID:27427821

Divergent plate boundary characteristics and crustal spreading in Aphrodite Terra, Venus - A test of some predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Head, James W.; Crumpler, L. S.

1989-01-01

Predictions concerning the divergence and crustal spreading in the Western Aphrodite Region of Venus are tested using published results from Arecibo, Venera 15/16, and Pioneer Venus data. It is found that the northern middle to high latitudes are characterized by a young average age, that there is a trend in the total number of craters per unit area from high values in the north polar regions to low values toward the equator, and that there is evidence for a latitudinal distribution of tectonic features of different types, with extensional features common in equatorial regions and compressional deformation features common in the northern middle to high latitudes.

The Diagnostic Value of the Clarke Sign in Assessing Chondromalacia Patella

PubMed Central

Doberstein, Scott T; Romeyn, Richard L; Reineke, David M

2008-01-01

Context: Various techniques have been described for assessing conditions that cause pain at the patellofemoral (PF) joint. The Clarke sign is one such test, but the diagnostic value of this test in assessing chondromalacia patella is unknown. Objective: To (1) investigate the diagnostic value of the Clarke sign in assessing the presence of chondromalacia patella using arthroscopic examination of the PF joint as the “gold standard,” and (2) provide a historical perspective of the Clarke sign as a clinical diagnostic test. Design: Validation study. Setting: All patients of one of the investigators who had knee pain or injuries unrelated to the patellofemoral joint and were scheduled for arthroscopic surgery were recruited for this study. Patients or Other Participants: A total of 106 otherwise healthy individuals with no history of patellofemoral pain or dysfunction volunteered. Main Outcome Measure(s): The Clarke sign was performed on the surgical knee by a single investigator in the clinic before surgery. A positive test was indicated by the presence of pain sufficient to prevent the patient from maintaining a quadriceps muscle contraction against manual resistance for longer than 2 seconds. The preoperative result was compared with visual evidence of chondromalacia patella during arthroscopy. Results: Sensitivity was 0.39, specificity was 0.67, likelihood ratio for a positive test was 1.18, likelihood ratio for a negative test was 0.91, positive predictive value was 0.25, and negative predictive value was 0.80. Conclusions: Diagnostic validity values for the use of the Clarke sign in assessing chondromalacia patella were unsatisfactory, supporting suggestions that it has poor diagnostic value as a clinical examination technique. Additionally, an extensive search of the available literature for the Clarke sign reveals multiple problems with the test, causing significant confusion for clinicians. Therefore, the use of the Clarke sign as a routine part of a knee examination is not beneficial, and its use should be discontinued. PMID:18345345

The diagnostic value of the Clarke sign in assessing chondromalacia patella.

PubMed

Doberstein, Scott T; Romeyn, Richard L; Reineke, David M

2008-01-01

Various techniques have been described for assessing conditions that cause pain at the patellofemoral (PF) joint. The Clarke sign is one such test, but the diagnostic value of this test in assessing chondromalacia patella is unknown. To (1) investigate the diagnostic value of the Clarke sign in assessing the presence of chondromalacia patella using arthroscopic examination of the PF joint as the "gold standard," and (2) provide a historical perspective of the Clarke sign as a clinical diagnostic test. Validation study. All patients of one of the investigators who had knee pain or injuries unrelated to the patellofemoral joint and were scheduled for arthroscopic surgery were recruited for this study. A total of 106 otherwise healthy individuals with no history of patellofemoral pain or dysfunction volunteered. The Clarke sign was performed on the surgical knee by a single investigator in the clinic before surgery. A positive test was indicated by the presence of pain sufficient to prevent the patient from maintaining a quadriceps muscle contraction against manual resistance for longer than 2 seconds. The preoperative result was compared with visual evidence of chondromalacia patella during arthroscopy. Sensitivity was 0.39, specificity was 0.67, likelihood ratio for a positive test was 1.18, likelihood ratio for a negative test was 0.91, positive predictive value was 0.25, and negative predictive value was 0.80. Diagnostic validity values for the use of the Clarke sign in assessing chondromalacia patella were unsatisfactory, supporting suggestions that it has poor diagnostic value as a clinical examination technique. Additionally, an extensive search of the available literature for the Clarke sign reveals multiple problems with the test, causing significant confusion for clinicians. Therefore, the use of the Clarke sign as a routine part of a knee examination is not beneficial, and its use should be discontinued.

A modified fall risk assessment tool that is specific to physical function predicts falls in community-dwelling elderly people.

PubMed

Hirase, Tatsuya; Inokuchi, Shigeru; Matsusaka, Nobuou; Nakahara, Kazumi; Okita, Minoru

2014-01-01

Developing a practical fall risk assessment tool to predict the occurrence of falls in the primary care setting is important because investigators have reported deterioration of physical function associated with falls. Researchers have used many performance tests to predict the occurrence of falls. These performance tests predict falls and also assess physical function and determine exercise interventions. However, the need for such specialists as physical therapists to accurately conduct these tests limits their use in the primary care setting. Questionnaires for fall prediction offer an easy way to identify high-risk fallers without requiring specialists. Using an existing fall assessment questionnaire, this study aimed to identify items specific to physical function and determine whether those items were able to predict falls and estimate physical function of high-risk fallers. The analysis consisted of both retrospective and prospective studies and used 2 different samples (retrospective, n = 1871; prospective, n = 292). The retrospective study and 3-month prospective study comprised community-dwelling individuals aged 65 years or older and older adults using community day centers. The number of falls, risk factors for falls (15 risk factors on the questionnaire), and physical function determined by chair standing test (CST) and Timed Up and Go Test (TUGT) were assessed. The retrospective study selected fall risk factors related to physical function. The prospective study investigated whether the number of selected risk factors could predict falls. The predictive power was determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Seven of the 15 risk factors were related to physical function. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the sum of the selected risk factors of previous falls plus the other risk factors was 0.82 (P = .00). The best cutoff point was 4 risk factors, with sensitivity and specificity of 84% and 68%, respectively. The mean values for the CST and TUGT at the best cutoff point were 12.9 and 12.5 seconds, respectively. In the retrospective study, the values for the CST and TUGT corresponding to the best cutoff point from the prospective study were 13.2 and 11.4 seconds, respectively. This study confirms that a screening tool comprising 7 fall risk factors can be used to predict falls. The values for the CST and TUGT corresponding to the best cutoff point for the selected 7 risk factors determined in our prospective study were similar to the cutoff points for the CST and TUGT in previous studies for fall prediction. We propose that the sum of the selected risk factors of previous falls plus the other risk factors may be identified as the estimated value for physical function. These findings may contribute to earlier identification of high-risk fallers and intervention for fall prevention.

Single- and mixture toxicity of three organic UV-filters, ethylhexyl methoxycinnamate, octocrylene, and avobenzone on Daphnia magna.

PubMed

Park, Chang-Beom; Jang, Jiyi; Kim, Sanghun; Kim, Young Jun

2017-03-01

In freshwater environments, aquatic organisms are generally exposed to mixtures of various chemical substances. In this study, we tested the toxicity of three organic UV-filters (ethylhexyl methoxycinnamate, octocrylene, and avobenzone) to Daphnia magna in order to evaluate the combined toxicity of these substances when in they occur in a mixture. The values of effective concentrations (ECx) for each UV-filter were calculated by concentration-response curves; concentration-combinations of three different UV-filters in a mixture were determined by the fraction of components based on EC 25 values predicted by concentration addition (CA) model. The interaction between the UV-filters were also assessed by model deviation ratio (MDR) using observed and predicted toxicity values obtained from mixture-exposure tests and CA model. The results from this study indicated that observed ECx mix (e.g., EC 10mix , EC 25mix , or EC 50mix ) values obtained from mixture-exposure tests were higher than predicted ECx mix (e.g., EC 10mix , EC 25mix , or EC 50mix ) values calculated by CA model. MDR values were also less than a factor of 1.0 in a mixtures of three different UV-filters. Based on these results, we suggest for the first time a reduction of toxic effects in the mixtures of three UV-filters, caused by antagonistic action of the components. Our findings from this study will provide important information for hazard or risk assessment of organic UV-filters, when they existed together in the aquatic environment. To better understand the mixture toxicity and the interaction of components in a mixture, further studies for various combinations of mixture components are also required. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting outcome of Morris water maze test in vascular dementia mouse model with deep learning

PubMed Central

Mogi, Masaki; Iwanami, Jun; Min, Li-Juan; Bai, Hui-Yu; Shan, Bao-Shuai; Kukida, Masayoshi; Kan-no, Harumi; Ikeda, Shuntaro; Higaki, Jitsuo; Horiuchi, Masatsugu

2018-01-01

The Morris water maze test (MWM) is one of the most popular and established behavioral tests to evaluate rodents’ spatial learning ability. The conventional training period is around 5 days, but there is no clear evidence or guidelines about the appropriate duration. In many cases, the final outcome of the MWM seems predicable from previous data and their trend. So, we assumed that if we can predict the final result with high accuracy, the experimental period could be shortened and the burden on testers reduced. An artificial neural network (ANN) is a useful modeling method for datasets that enables us to obtain an accurate mathematical model. Therefore, we constructed an ANN system to estimate the final outcome in MWM from the previously obtained 4 days of data in both normal mice and vascular dementia model mice. Ten-week-old male C57B1/6 mice (wild type, WT) were subjected to bilateral common carotid artery stenosis (WT-BCAS) or sham-operation (WT-sham). At 6 weeks after surgery, we evaluated their cognitive function with MWM. Mean escape latency was significantly longer in WT-BCAS than in WT-sham. All data were collected and used as training data and test data for the ANN system. We defined a multiple layer perceptron (MLP) as a prediction model using an open source framework for deep learning, Chainer. After a certain number of updates, we compared the predicted values and actual measured values with test data. A significant correlation coefficient was derived form the updated ANN model in both WT-sham and WT-BCAS. Next, we analyzed the predictive capability of human testers with the same datasets. There was no significant difference in the prediction accuracy between human testers and ANN models in both WT-sham and WT-BCAS. In conclusion, deep learning method with ANN could predict the final outcome in MWM from 4 days of data with high predictive accuracy in a vascular dementia model. PMID:29415035

Predicting outcome of Morris water maze test in vascular dementia mouse model with deep learning.

PubMed

Higaki, Akinori; Mogi, Masaki; Iwanami, Jun; Min, Li-Juan; Bai, Hui-Yu; Shan, Bao-Shuai; Kukida, Masayoshi; Kan-No, Harumi; Ikeda, Shuntaro; Higaki, Jitsuo; Horiuchi, Masatsugu

2018-01-01

The Morris water maze test (MWM) is one of the most popular and established behavioral tests to evaluate rodents' spatial learning ability. The conventional training period is around 5 days, but there is no clear evidence or guidelines about the appropriate duration. In many cases, the final outcome of the MWM seems predicable from previous data and their trend. So, we assumed that if we can predict the final result with high accuracy, the experimental period could be shortened and the burden on testers reduced. An artificial neural network (ANN) is a useful modeling method for datasets that enables us to obtain an accurate mathematical model. Therefore, we constructed an ANN system to estimate the final outcome in MWM from the previously obtained 4 days of data in both normal mice and vascular dementia model mice. Ten-week-old male C57B1/6 mice (wild type, WT) were subjected to bilateral common carotid artery stenosis (WT-BCAS) or sham-operation (WT-sham). At 6 weeks after surgery, we evaluated their cognitive function with MWM. Mean escape latency was significantly longer in WT-BCAS than in WT-sham. All data were collected and used as training data and test data for the ANN system. We defined a multiple layer perceptron (MLP) as a prediction model using an open source framework for deep learning, Chainer. After a certain number of updates, we compared the predicted values and actual measured values with test data. A significant correlation coefficient was derived form the updated ANN model in both WT-sham and WT-BCAS. Next, we analyzed the predictive capability of human testers with the same datasets. There was no significant difference in the prediction accuracy between human testers and ANN models in both WT-sham and WT-BCAS. In conclusion, deep learning method with ANN could predict the final outcome in MWM from 4 days of data with high predictive accuracy in a vascular dementia model.

A comparative study of Widal test with blood culture in the diagnosis of typhoid fever in febrile patients.

PubMed

Andualem, Gizachew; Abebe, Tamrat; Kebede, Nigatu; Gebre-Selassie, Solomon; Mihret, Adane; Alemayehu, Haile

2014-09-17

Typhoid fever is a major health problem in developing countries and its diagnosis on clinical ground is difficult. Diagnosis in developing countries including Ethiopia is mostly done by Widal test. However, the value of the test has been debated. Hence, evaluating the result of this test is necessary for correct interpretation of the result. The main aim of this study was to compare the result of Widal test and blood culture in the diagnosis of typhoid fever in febrile patients. Blood samples were collected from 270 febrile patients with symptoms clinically similar to typhoid fever and visiting St. Paul's General Specialized Hospitals from mid December 2010 to March 2011. Blood culture was used to isolate S.typhi and S.paratyphi. Slide agglutination test and tube agglutination tests were used for the determination of antibody titer. An antibody titer of ≥1:80 for anti TO and ≥1:160 for anti TH were taken as a cut of value to indicate recent infection of typhoid fever. One hundred and eighty six (68.9%) participants were females and eighty four (31.1%) were males. 7 (2.6%) cases of S. typhi and 4 (1.5%) cases of S. paratyphi were identified with the total prevalence of typhoid fever 4.1%. The total number of patients who have indicative of recent infection by either of O and H antigens Widal test is 88 (32.6%). The sensitivity, specificity, Positive predictive Value and Negative predictive Value of Widal test were 71.4%, 68.44%, 5.7% and 98.9% respectively. Widal test has a low sensitivity, specificity and PPV, but it has good NPV which indicates that negative Widal test result have a good indication for the absence of the disease.

Survival Regression Modeling Strategies in CVD Prediction.

PubMed

Barkhordari, Mahnaz; Padyab, Mojgan; Sardarinia, Mahsa; Hadaegh, Farzad; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bozorgmanesh, Mohammadreza

2016-04-01

A fundamental part of prevention is prediction. Potential predictors are the sine qua non of prediction models. However, whether incorporating novel predictors to prediction models could be directly translated to added predictive value remains an area of dispute. The difference between the predictive power of a predictive model with (enhanced model) and without (baseline model) a certain predictor is generally regarded as an indicator of the predictive value added by that predictor. Indices such as discrimination and calibration have long been used in this regard. Recently, the use of added predictive value has been suggested while comparing the predictive performances of the predictive models with and without novel biomarkers. User-friendly statistical software capable of implementing novel statistical procedures is conspicuously lacking. This shortcoming has restricted implementation of such novel model assessment methods. We aimed to construct Stata commands to help researchers obtain the aforementioned statistical indices. We have written Stata commands that are intended to help researchers obtain the following. 1, Nam-D'Agostino X 2 goodness of fit test; 2, Cut point-free and cut point-based net reclassification improvement index (NRI), relative absolute integrated discriminatory improvement index (IDI), and survival-based regression analyses. We applied the commands to real data on women participating in the Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) to examine if information relating to a family history of premature cardiovascular disease (CVD), waist circumference, and fasting plasma glucose can improve predictive performance of Framingham's general CVD risk algorithm. The command is adpredsurv for survival models. Herein we have described the Stata package "adpredsurv" for calculation of the Nam-D'Agostino X 2 goodness of fit test as well as cut point-free and cut point-based NRI, relative and absolute IDI, and survival-based regression analyses. We hope this work encourages the use of novel methods in examining predictive capacity of the emerging plethora of novel biomarkers.

Expectancy-Value and Cognitive Process Outcomes in Mathematics Learning: A Structural Equation Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phan, Huy P.

2014-01-01

Existing research has yielded evidence to indicate that the expectancy-value theoretical model predicts students' learning in various achievement contexts. Achievement values and self-efficacy expectations, for example, have been found to exert positive effects on cognitive process and academic achievement outcomes. We tested a conceptual model…

The Relationship between Adolescents' Levels of Hopelessness and Cyberbullying: The Role of Values

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dilmaç, Bülent

2017-01-01

The purpose of this research is to present the relationship of teenagers' values with their levels of cyberbullying and hopelessness, as well as to test the created model in terms of these relations. This research analyzes the predictive relationships among adolescents' values, cyberbullying, and hopelessness through the program AMOS 19 in…

Can nature make us more caring? Effects of immersion in nature on intrinsic aspirations and generosity.

PubMed

Weinstein, Netta; Przybylski, Andrew K; Ryan, Richard M

2009-10-01

Four studies examined the effects of nature on valuing intrinsic and extrinsic aspirations. Intrinsic aspirations reflected prosocial and other-focused value orientations, and extrinsic aspirations predicted self-focused value orientations. Participants immersed in natural environments reported higher valuing of intrinsic aspirations and lower valuing of extrinsic aspirations, whereas those immersed in non-natural environments reported increased valuing of extrinsic aspirations and no change of intrinsic aspirations. Three studies explored experiences of nature relatedness and autonomy as underlying mechanisms of these effects, showing that nature immersion elicited these processes whereas non-nature immersion thwarted them and that they in turn predicted higher intrinsic and lower extrinsic aspirations. Studies 3 and 4 also extended the paradigm by testing these effects on generous decision making indicative of valuing intrinsic versus extrinsic aspirations.

RaptorX-Angle: real-value prediction of protein backbone dihedral angles through a hybrid method of clustering and deep learning.

PubMed

Gao, Yujuan; Wang, Sheng; Deng, Minghua; Xu, Jinbo

2018-05-08

Protein dihedral angles provide a detailed description of protein local conformation. Predicted dihedral angles can be used to narrow down the conformational space of the whole polypeptide chain significantly, thus aiding protein tertiary structure prediction. However, direct angle prediction from sequence alone is challenging. In this article, we present a novel method (named RaptorX-Angle) to predict real-valued angles by combining clustering and deep learning. Tested on a subset of PDB25 and the targets in the latest two Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction (CASP), our method outperforms the existing state-of-art method SPIDER2 in terms of Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Our result also shows approximately linear relationship between the real prediction errors and our estimated bounds. That is, the real prediction error can be well approximated by our estimated bounds. Our study provides an alternative and more accurate prediction of dihedral angles, which may facilitate protein structure prediction and functional study.

Oncotype DX breast cancer recurrence score can be predicted with a novel nomogram using clinicopathologic data.

PubMed

Orucevic, Amila; Bell, John L; McNabb, Alison P; Heidel, Robert E

2017-05-01

Oncotype DX (ODX) recurrence score (RS) breast cancer (BC) assay is costly, and performed in only ~1/3 of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive BC patients in the USA. We have now developed a user-friendly nomogram surrogate prediction model for ODX based on a large dataset from the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) to assist in selecting patients for which further ODX testing may not be necessary and as a surrogate for patients for which ODX testing is not affordable or available. Six clinicopathologic variables of 27,719 ODX-tested ER+/HER2-/lymph node-negative patients with 6-50 mm tumor size captured by the NCDB from 2010 to 2012 were assessed with logistic regression to predict high-risk or low-risk ODXRS test results with TAILORx-trial and commercial cut-off values; 12,763 ODX-tested patients in 2013 were used for external validation. The predictive accuracy of the regression model was yielded using a Receiver Operator Characteristic analysis. Model fit was analyzed by plotting the predicted probabilities against the actual probabilities. A user-friendly calculator version of nomograms is available online at the University of Tennessee Medical Center website (Knoxville, TN). Grade and progesterone receptor status were the highest predictors of both low-risk and high-risk ODXRS, followed by age, tumor size, histologic tumor type and lymph-vascular invasion (C-indexes-.0.85 vs. 0.88 for TAILORx-trial vs. commercial cut-off values, respectively). This is the first study of this scale showing confidently that clinicopathologic variables can be used for prediction of low-risk or high-risk ODXRS using our nomogram models. These novel nomograms will be useful tools to help physicians and patients decide whether further ODX testing is necessary and are excellent surrogates for patients for which ODX testing is not affordable or available.

The CURB65 pneumonia severity score outperforms generic sepsis and early warning scores in predicting mortality in community‐acquired pneumonia

PubMed Central

Barlow, Gavin; Nathwani, Dilip; Davey, Peter

2007-01-01

Background The performance of CURB65 in predicting mortality in community‐acquired pneumonia (CAP) has been tested in two large observational studies. However, it has not been tested against generic sepsis and early warning scores, which are increasingly being advocated for identification of high‐risk patients in acute medical wards. Method A retrospective analysis was performed of data prospectively collected for a CAP quality improvement study. The ability to stratify mortality and performance characteristics (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and area under the receiver operating curve) were calculated for stratifications of CURB65, CRB65, the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria and the standardised early warning score (SEWS). Results 419 patients were included in the main analysis with a median age of 74 years (men = 47%). CURB65 and CRB65 stratified mortality in a more clinically useful way and had more favourable operating characteristics than SIRS or SEWS; for example, mortality in low‐risk patients was 2% when defined by CURB65, but 9% when defined by SEWS and 11–17% when defined by variations of the SIRS criteria. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of CURB65 was 71%, 69%, 35% and 91%, respectively, compared with 62%, 73%, 35% and 89% for the best performing version of SIRS and 52%, 67%, 27% and 86% for SEWS. CURB65 had the greatest area under the receiver operating curve (0.78 v 0.73 for CRB65, 0.68 for SIRS and 0.64 for SEWS). Conclusions CURB65 should not be supplanted by SIRS or SEWS for initial prognostic assessment in CAP. Further research to identify better generic prognostic tools is required. PMID:16928720

Improvement of cardiovascular risk prediction: time to review current knowledge, debates, and fundamentals on how to assess test characteristics.

PubMed

Romanens, Michel; Ackermann, Franz; Spence, John David; Darioli, Roger; Rodondi, Nicolas; Corti, Roberto; Noll, Georg; Schwenkglenks, Matthias; Pencina, Michael

2010-02-01

Cardiovascular risk assessment might be improved with the addition of emerging, new tests derived from atherosclerosis imaging, laboratory tests or functional tests. This article reviews relative risk, odds ratios, receiver-operating curves, posttest risk calculations based on likelihood ratios, the net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination. This serves to determine whether a new test has an added clinical value on top of conventional risk testing and how this can be verified statistically. Two clinically meaningful examples serve to illustrate novel approaches. This work serves as a review and basic work for the development of new guidelines on cardiovascular risk prediction, taking into account emerging tests, to be proposed by members of the 'Taskforce on Vascular Risk Prediction' under the auspices of the Working Group 'Swiss Atherosclerosis' of the Swiss Society of Cardiology in the future.

Can non‐clinical repolarization assays predict the results of clinical thorough QT studies? Results from a research consortium

PubMed Central

Park, Eunjung; Gintant, Gary A; Bi, Daoqin; Kozeli, Devi; Pettit, Syril D; Skinner, Matthew; Willard, James; Wisialowski, Todd; Koerner, John; Valentin, Jean‐Pierre

2018-01-01

Background and Purpose Translation of non‐clinical markers of delayed ventricular repolarization to clinical prolongation of the QT interval corrected for heart rate (QTc) (a biomarker for torsades de pointes proarrhythmia) remains an issue in drug discovery and regulatory evaluations. We retrospectively analysed 150 drug applications in a US Food and Drug Administration database to determine the utility of established non‐clinical in vitro IKr current human ether‐à‐go‐go‐related gene (hERG), action potential duration (APD) and in vivo (QTc) repolarization assays to detect and predict clinical QTc prolongation. Experimental Approach The predictive performance of three non‐clinical assays was compared with clinical thorough QT study outcomes based on free clinical plasma drug concentrations using sensitivity and specificity, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, positive (PPVs) and negative predictive values (NPVs) and likelihood ratios (LRs). Key Results Non‐clinical assays demonstrated robust specificity (high true negative rate) but poor sensitivity (low true positive rate) for clinical QTc prolongation at low‐intermediate (1×–30×) clinical exposure multiples. The QTc assay provided the most robust PPVs and NPVs (ability to predict clinical QTc prolongation). ROC curves (overall test accuracy) and LRs (ability to influence post‐test probabilities) demonstrated overall marginal performance for hERG and QTc assays (best at 30× exposures), while the APD assay demonstrated minimal value. Conclusions and Implications The predictive value of hERG, APD and QTc assays varies, with drug concentrations strongly affecting translational performance. While useful in guiding preclinical candidates without clinical QT prolongation, hERG and QTc repolarization assays provide greater value compared with the APD assay. PMID:29181850

Designing Predictive Models for Beta-Lactam Allergy Using the Drug Allergy and Hypersensitivity Database.

PubMed

Chiriac, Anca Mirela; Wang, Youna; Schrijvers, Rik; Bousquet, Philippe Jean; Mura, Thibault; Molinari, Nicolas; Demoly, Pascal

Beta-lactam antibiotics represent the main cause of allergic reactions to drugs, inducing both immediate and nonimmediate allergies. The diagnosis is well established, usually based on skin tests and drug provocation tests, but cumbersome. To design predictive models for the diagnosis of beta-lactam allergy, based on the clinical history of patients with suspicions of allergic reactions to beta-lactams. The study included a retrospective phase, in which records of patients explored for a suspicion of beta-lactam allergy (in the Allergy Unit of the University Hospital of Montpellier between September 1996 and September 2012) were used to construct predictive models based on a logistic regression and decision tree method; a prospective phase, in which we performed an external validation of the chosen models in patients with suspicion of beta-lactam allergy recruited from 3 allergy centers (Montpellier, Nîmes, Narbonne) between March and November 2013. Data related to clinical history and allergy evaluation results were retrieved and analyzed. The retrospective and prospective phases included 1991 and 200 patients, respectively, with a different prevalence of confirmed beta-lactam allergy (23.6% vs 31%, P = .02). For the logistic regression method, performances of the models were similar in both samples: sensitivity was 51% (vs 60%), specificity 75% (vs 80%), positive predictive value 40% (vs 57%), and negative predictive value 83% (vs 82%). The decision tree method reached a sensitivity of 29.5% (vs 43.5%), specificity of 96.4% (vs 94.9%), positive predictive value of 71.6% (vs 79.4%), and negative predictive value of 81.6% (vs 81.3%). Two different independent methods using clinical history predictors were unable to accurately predict beta-lactam allergy and replace a conventional allergy evaluation for suspected beta-lactam allergy. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The local lymph node assay compared with the human maximization test as an indicator of allergic potency in humans using patch test clinic populations.

PubMed

Zaghi, Danny; Maibach, Howard I

2009-01-01

The human maximization test (HMT) is a method to evaluate potency in humans, while the local lymph node assay (LLNA) is a test method that allows for the measuring of the allergic potency of a substance in a rodent. It has been proposed that an EC3 value (the value obtained by the LLNA test, ie, the concentration of an allergen leading to a 3-fold increase of baseline proliferation rate) would be a reliable indicator for a compound's allergic potency in humans. This paper compares the correlation between the EC3 value of a compound and its allergic occurrence in the general population with the correlation between the HMT of the compound and its allergic occurrence in the general population, to determine the relationship to potency. The correlation values when outliers were removed from the sample were -0.56 and -0.71 for LLNA and HMT, respectively, suggesting that there is a possible 20% error margin in LLNA's ability to predict potency. The data also suggest that other factors (such as exposure) could play up to a 30% role in the determination of allergic occurrence in the general population. The potency assays might be made more clinically relevant for predicting allergic frequencies by including a frequency factor and other factors in its dermatotoxicological interpretation.

Is Recess an Achievement Context? An Application of Expectancy-Value Theory to Playground Choices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spencer-Cavaliere, Nancy; Dunn, Janice Causgrove; Watkinson, E. Jane

2009-01-01

This study investigated the application of an expectancy-value model to children's activity choices on the playground at recess. The purpose was to test the prediction that expectancies for success and subjective task values are related to decisions to engage in specific recess activities such as climbing, playing soccer, or skipping rope.…

The predictive value of specific immunoglobulin E levels in serum for the outcome of the development of tolerance in cow's milk allergy.

PubMed

Martorell, A; García Ara, M C; Plaza, A M; Boné, J; Nevot, S; Echeverria, L; Alonso, E; Garde, J

2008-01-01

Immunoglobulin E-mediated allergy to cow's milk protein (CMP) tends to subside over years of follow-up. The gold standard for detecting such allergy has been the oral challenge test. The development of some other test for determining the correct timing of the oral challenge test would avoid unnecessary patient discomfort. The aim of this study was to determine whether monitoring cow's milk (CM) specific IgE levels over time can be used as a predictor for determining when patients develop clinical tolerance. A prospective 4-year follow-up study was made of 170 patients with IgE-mediated allergy to CMP, involving periodic evaluations (12, 18, 24, 36 and 48 months) with the determination of casein and CM specific IgE on each visit, along with CM challenge testing. ROC curves were used to analyse the sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of the casein and CM specific IgE levels versus the challenge test outcomes at the different moments of follow-up. In the course of follow-up, 140 infants (82 %) became tolerant. Specific IgE levels to CM: 2.58, 2.5, 2.7, 2.26, 5 kU(A)/l and to casein: 0.97, 1.22, 3, 2.39, 2.73 kU(A)/l, respectively, predicted clinical reactivity (greatest diagnostic efficiency values) at the different analysed moments of follow-up (12, 18, 24, 36 and 48 months). Quantification of CMP specific IgE is a useful test for diagnosing symptomatic allergy to CM in the paediatric population, and could eliminate the need to perform oral challenges tests in a significant number of children.

Algorithm for Lossless Compression of Calibrated Hyperspectral Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiely, Aaron B.; Klimesh, Matthew A.

2010-01-01

A two-stage predictive method was developed for lossless compression of calibrated hyperspectral imagery. The first prediction stage uses a conventional linear predictor intended to exploit spatial and/or spectral dependencies in the data. The compressor tabulates counts of the past values of the difference between this initial prediction and the actual sample value. To form the ultimate predicted value, in the second stage, these counts are combined with an adaptively updated weight function intended to capture information about data regularities introduced by the calibration process. Finally, prediction residuals are losslessly encoded using adaptive arithmetic coding. Algorithms of this type are commonly tested on a readily available collection of images from the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) hyperspectral imager. On the standard calibrated AVIRIS hyperspectral images that are most widely used for compression benchmarking, the new compressor provides more than 0.5 bits/sample improvement over the previous best compression results. The algorithm has been implemented in Mathematica. The compression algorithm was demonstrated as beneficial on 12-bit calibrated AVIRIS images.

ctDNA Determination of EGFR Mutation Status in European and Japanese Patients with Advanced NSCLC: The ASSESS Study.

PubMed

Reck, Martin; Hagiwara, Koichi; Han, Baohui; Tjulandin, Sergei; Grohé, Christian; Yokoi, Takashi; Morabito, Alessandro; Novello, Silvia; Arriola, Edurne; Molinier, Olivier; McCormack, Rose; Ratcliffe, Marianne; Normanno, Nicola

2016-10-01

To offer patients with EGFR mutation-positive advanced NSCLC appropriate EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor treatment, mutation testing of tumor samples is required. However, tissue/cytologic samples are not always available or evaluable. The large, noninterventional diagnostic ASSESS study (NCT01785888) evaluated the utility of circulating free tumor-derived DNA (ctDNA) from plasma for EGFR mutation testing. ASSESS was conducted in 56 centers (in Europe and Japan). Eligible patients (with newly diagnosed locally advanced/metastatic treatment-naive advanced NSCLC) provided diagnostic tissue/cytologic and plasma samples. DNA extracted from tissue/cytologic samples was subjected to EGFR mutation testing using local practices; designated laboratories performed DNA extraction/mutation testing of blood samples. The primary end point was level of concordance of EGFR mutation status between matched tissue/cytologic and plasma samples. Of 1311 patients enrolled, 1288 were eligible. Concordance of mutation status in 1162 matched samples was 89% (sensitivity 46%, specificity 97%, positive predictive value 78%, and negative predictive value 90%). A group of 25 patients with apparent false-positive plasma results was overrepresented for cytologic samples, use of less sensitive tissue testing methodologies, and smoking habits associated with high EGFR mutation frequency, indicative of false-negative tumor results. In cases in which plasma and tumor samples were tested with identical highly sensitive methods, positive predictive value/sensitivity were generally improved. These real-world data suggest that ctDNA is a feasible sample for EGFR mutation analysis. It is important to conduct mutation testing of both tumor and plasma samples in specialized laboratories, using robust/sensitive methods to ensure that patients receive appropriate treatments that target the molecular features of their disease. Copyright © 2016 International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Validation of the Eating Attitudes Test as a screening instrument for eating disorders in general population].

PubMed

Peláez-Fernández, María Angeles; Ruiz-Lázaro, Pedro Manuel; Labrador, Francisco Javier; Raich, Rosa María

2014-02-20

To validate the best cut-off point of the Eating Attitudes Test (EAT-40), Spanish version, for the screening of eating disorders (ED) in the general population. This was a transversal cross-sectional study. The EAT-40 Spanish version was administered to a representative sample of 1.543 students, age range 12 to 21 years, in the Region of Madrid. Six hundred and two participants (probable cases and a random sample of controls) were interviewed. The best diagnostic prediction was obtained with a cut-off point of 21, with sensitivity: 88.2%; specificity: 62.1%; positive predictive value: 17.7%; negative predictive value: 62.1%. Use of a cut-off point of 21 is recommended in epidemiological studies of eating disorders in the Spanish general population. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Measuring drug absorption improves interpretation of behavioral responses in a larval zebrafish locomotor assay for predicting seizure liability.

PubMed

Cassar, Steven; Breidenbach, Laura; Olson, Amanda; Huang, Xin; Britton, Heather; Woody, Clarissa; Sancheti, Pankajkumar; Stolarik, DeAnne; Wicke, Karsten; Hempel, Katja; LeRoy, Bruce

2017-11-01

Unanticipated effects on the central nervous system are a concern during new drug development. A larval zebrafish locomotor assay can reveal seizure liability of experimental molecules before testing in mammals. Relative absorption of compounds by larvae is lacking in prior reports of such assays; having those data may be valuable for interpreting seizure liability assay performance. Twenty-eight reference drugs were tested at multiple dose levels in fish water and analyzed by a blinded investigator. Responses of larval zebrafish were quantified during a 30min dosing period. Predictive metrics were calculated by comparing fish activity to mammalian seizure liability for each drug. Drug level analysis was performed to calculate concentrations in dose solutions and larvae. Fifteen drug candidates with neuronal targets, some having preclinical convulsion findings in mammals, were tested similarly. The assay has good predictive value of established mammalian responses for reference drugs. Analysis of drug absorption by larval fish revealed a positive correlation between hyperactive behavior and pro-convulsive drug absorption. False negative results were associated with significantly lower compound absorption compared to true negative, or true positive results. The predictive value for preclinical toxicology findings was inferior to that suggested by reference drugs. Disproportionately low exposures in larvae giving false negative results demonstrate that drug exposure analysis can help interpret results. Due to the rigorous testing commonly performed in preclinical toxicology, predicting convulsions in those studies may be more difficult than predicting effects from marketed drugs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Testing Small Variance Priors Using Prior-Posterior Predictive p Values.

PubMed

Hoijtink, Herbert; van de Schoot, Rens

2017-04-03

Muthén and Asparouhov (2012) propose to evaluate model fit in structural equation models based on approximate (using small variance priors) instead of exact equality of (combinations of) parameters to zero. This is an important development that adequately addresses Cohen's (1994) The Earth is Round (p < .05), which stresses that point null-hypotheses are so precise that small and irrelevant differences from the null-hypothesis may lead to their rejection. It is tempting to evaluate small variance priors using readily available approaches like the posterior predictive p value and the DIC. However, as will be shown, both are not suited for the evaluation of models based on small variance priors. In this article, a well behaving alternative, the prior-posterior predictive p value, will be introduced. It will be shown that it is consistent, the distributions under the null and alternative hypotheses will be elaborated, and it will be applied to testing whether the difference between 2 means and the size of a correlation are relevantly different from zero. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Diagnostic value of ACTH stimulation test in determining the subtypes of primary aldosteronism.

PubMed

Jiang, Yiran; Zhang, Cui; Wang, Weiqing; Su, Tingwei; Zhou, Weiwei; Jiang, Lei; Zhu, Wei; Xie, Jing; Ning, Guang

2015-05-01

Adrenal venous sampling is recommended as the golden standard for subtyping primary aldosteronism (PA). However, it is invasive and inconvenient, and seeking a better way to make differential diagnosis of PA is necessary. The objective of the study was to evaluate the diagnostic value of ACTH stimulation test under 1 mg dexamethasone suppression test (DST) in determining the subtypes of PA. Ninety-five patients with PA confirmed by saline infusion test were included in this study. According to adrenal venous sampling and histopathology, 39 patients were diagnosed as bilateral adrenal hyperplasia (BAH), 37 as aldosterone-producing adenoma (APA), and 19 as unilateral adrenal hyperplasia (UAH). An ACTH stimulation test under 1 mg DST was performed in all patients. Plasma aldosterone and cortisol levels were measured every 30 minutes until 120 minutes after the iv injection of 50 IU ACTH. During the ACTH stimulation test, aldosterone levels in APA and UAH were similar (P > .05) but higher than those in BAH (P < .001). Furthermore, stimulated aldosterone levels of unilateral PA (APA and UAH) were significantly higher than bilateral PA (BAH) (P < .001). Receiver-operated characteristics curve analyses showed the aldosterone after ACTH stimulation was effective for distinguishing between unilateral PA and bilateral PA. The diagnostic accuracy was highest at 120 minutes after ACTH stimulation, and the optimal cutoff value of the aldosterone was 77.90 ng/dL, with a sensitivity of 76.8%, a specificity of 87.2%, a positive predictive value of 89.6%, and a negative predictive value of 72.3%. The ACTH stimulation test under 1 mg DST is useful to determine the subtypes of PA, especially in unilateral and bilateral PA, and may guide further treatment in PA patients.

Improvement of shallow landslide prediction accuracy using soil parameterisation for a granite area in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, M. S.; Onda, Y.; Kim, J. K.

2015-01-01

SHALSTAB model applied to shallow landslides induced by rainfall to evaluate soil properties related with the effect of soil depth for a granite area in Jinbu region, Republic of Korea. Soil depth measured by a knocking pole test and two soil parameters from direct shear test (a and b) as well as one soil parameters from a triaxial compression test (c) were collected to determine the input parameters for the model. Experimental soil data were used for the first simulation (Case I) and, soil data represented the effect of measured soil depth and average soil depth from soil data of Case I were used in the second (Case II) and third simulations (Case III), respectively. All simulations were analysed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to determine the accuracy of prediction. ROC analysis results for first simulation showed the low ROC values under 0.75 may be due to the internal friction angle and particularly the cohesion value. Soil parameters calculated from a stochastic hydro-geomorphological model were applied to the SHALSTAB model. The accuracy of Case II and Case III using ROC analysis showed higher accuracy values rather than first simulation. Our results clearly demonstrate that the accuracy of shallow landslide prediction can be improved when soil parameters represented the effect of soil thickness.

Parent-Youth Differences in Familism Values from Adolescence into Young Adulthood: Developmental Course and Links with Parent-Youth Conflict.

PubMed

Padilla, Jenny; McHale, Susan M; Rovine, Michael J; Updegraff, Kimberly A; Umaña-Taylor, Adriana J

2016-12-01

A critical step in capturing family processes is to incorporate the perspectives and experiences of multiple family members toward characterizing how families operate as systems. Although some research has examined differences between parents' and youth's family experiences, most studies have focused on European American families, and we know little about the nature and implications of divergent parent-youth experiences in other ethnic groups. Accordingly, we focused on Mexican-origin families and assessed the links between mother-youth and father-youth differences in familism values and parent-youth conflict from early adolescence into young adulthood. Participants were mothers, fathers, and two siblings (248 female and 244 male, 51 % female; M age  = 14.02 years) from 246 families who were interviewed in their homes on three occasions over 8 years. We operationalized parent-youth differences in familism values using difference scores, controlling for mean levels of familism. Multilevel models revealed that mothers' and fathers' familism values remained relatively stable over time, but youth's familism values declined until age 17, stabilized, and then increased slightly in young adulthood. Lagged models tested directions of effect by examining whether parent-youth differences in familism values predicted parent-youth conflict or vice versa. The findings revealed that parent-youth conflict predicted greater differences in parent-youth familism values, but differences in familism values did not predict conflict. Our findings align with a family systems perspective in documenting the significance of differences between family members' perspectives and highlighting that such processes are dynamic. Further, by testing bi-directional associations in longitudinal models, we were able to disentangle the temporal ordering of differences in familism values and parent-youth conflict thereby advancing understanding of parent-youth discrepancies in cultural values.

Parent-Youth Differences in Familism Values from Adolescence into Young Adulthood: Developmental Course and Links with Parent-Youth Conflict

PubMed Central

McHale, Susan M.; Rovine, Michael J.; Updegraff, Kimberly A.; Umaña-Taylor, Adriana J.

2016-01-01

A critical step in capturing family processes is to incorporate the perspectives and experiences of multiple family members toward characterizing how families operate as systems. Although some research has examined differences between parents' and youth's family experiences, most studies have focused on European American families, and we know little about the nature and implications of divergent parent-youth experiences in other ethnic groups. Accordingly, we focused on Mexican-origin families and assessed the links between mother-youth and father-youth differences in familism values and parent-youth conflict from early adolescence into young adulthood. Participants were mothers, fathers, and two siblings (248 female and 244 male; Mage = 14.02 years) from 246 families who were interviewed in their homes on three occasions over eight years. We operationalized parent-youth differences in familism values using difference scores, controlling for mean levels of familism. Multilevel models revealed that mothers' and fathers' familism values remained relatively stable over time, but youth's (51% female) familism values declined until age 17, stabilized, and then increased slightly in young adulthood. Lagged models tested directions of effect by examining whether parent-youth differences in familism values predicted parent-youth conflict or vice versa. The findings revealed that parent-youth conflict predicted greater differences in parent-youth familism values, but differences in familism values did not predict conflict. Our findings align with a family systems perspective in documenting the significance of differences between family members' perspectives and highlighting that such processes are dynamic. Further, by testing bidirectional associations in longitudinal models, we were able to disentangle the temporal ordering of differences in familism values and parent-youth conflict thereby advancing understanding of parent-youth discrepancies in cultural values. PMID:27299763

[Pediatrics. Using the McIsaac score for the indication of rapid diagnostic testing in children with streptococcal pharyngitis].

PubMed

Pauchard, J-Y; Gehri, M; Vaudaux, B

2013-01-16

The McIsaac scoring system is a tool designed to predict the probability of streptococcal pharyngitis in children aged 3 to 17 years with a sore throat. Although it does not allow the physician to make the diagnosis of streptococcal pharyngitis, it enables to identify those children with a sore throat in whom rapid antigen detection tests have a good predictive value.

Motor Testing at 1 Year Improves the Prediction of Motor and Mental Outcome at 2 Years after Perinatal Hypoxic-Ischaemic Encephalopathy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Schie, Petra Em; Becher, Jules G.; Dallmeijer, Annet J.; Barkhof, Frederik; van Weissenbruch, Mirjam M.; Vermeulen, R. Jeroen

2010-01-01

Aim: To investigate the predictive value of motor testing at 1 year for motor and mental outcome at 2 years after perinatal hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy (HIE) in term neonates. Method: Motor and mental outcome at 2 years was assessed with the Bayley Scales of Infant Development, 2nd edition (BSID-II) in 32 surviving children (20 males, 12…

"Stops walking when talking" as a predictor of falls in people with stroke living in the community

PubMed Central

Hyndman, D; Ashburn, A

2004-01-01

Objective: To test "Stops walking when talking" (SWWT) as a predictor of falls among people with stroke living in the community. Methods: People with stroke were identified through hospital records. Mobility, ADL (activites of daily living) ability, mental state, mood, and SWWT were assessed in a single session. Participants were followed prospectively for six months, using falls diaries and regular telephone calls. Results: Sixty three participants (36 men, 27 women; mean (SD) age 68.4 (10.6)) were recruited. Four subjects had a brainstem lesion, 30 had right hemisphere, and 29 left hemisphere infarctions. Mean time since onset of stroke was 20 months (range 2–72). Twenty six subjects stopped walking when a conversation was started and 16 of them fell during the six month follow up period (11 experienced repeated falls). For all fallers (⩾1) the positive predictive value of SWWT was 62% (16/26), the negative predictive value 62% (23/37), specificity 70% (23/33) and sensitivity 53% (16/30). For repeat fallers (⩾2) the positive predictive value of SWWT was 42% (11/26), the negative predictive value 89% (33/37), specificity 69% (33/48) and sensitivity 73% (11/15). Those who stopped walking were significantly more disabled (p<0.001)—that is, they were more dependent in activities of daily living, had worse gross function as well as worse upper and lower limb function, and had depression (p = 0.012). Conclusions: The specificity of the SWWT test was lower but sensitivity was higher than previously reported. Although the SWWT test was easy to use, its clinical usefulness as a single indicator of fall risk in identifying those community dwelling people with stroke most at risk of falls and in need of therapeutic intervention is questionable. PMID:15201358

Implications of the difference between true and predicted breeding values for the study of natural selection and micro-evolution.

PubMed

Postma, E

2006-03-01

The ability to predict individual breeding values in natural populations with known pedigrees has provided a powerful tool to separate phenotypic values into their genetic and environmental components in a nonexperimental setting. This has allowed sophisticated analyses of selection, as well as powerful tests of evolutionary change and differentiation. To date, there has, however, been no evaluation of the reliability or potential limitations of the approach. In this article, I address these gaps. In particular, I emphasize the differences between true and predicted breeding values (PBVs), which as yet have largely been ignored. These differences do, however, have important implications for the interpretation of, firstly, the relationship between PBVs and fitness, and secondly, patterns in PBVs over time. I subsequently present guidelines I believe to be essential in the formulation of the questions addressed in studies using PBVs, and I discuss possibilities for future research.

Sweat conductivity and coulometric quantitative test in neonatal cystic fibrosis screening.

PubMed

Domingos, Mouseline Torquato; Magdalena, Neiva Isabel Rodrigues; Cat, Mônica Nunes Lima; Watanabe, Alexandra Mitiru; Rosário Filho, Nelson Augusto

2015-01-01

To compare the results obtained with the sweat test using the conductivity method and coulometric measurement of sweat chloride in newborns (NBs) with suspected cystic fibrosis (CF) in the neonatal screening program. The sweat test was performed simultaneously by both methods in children with and without CF. The cutoff values to confirm CF were >50 mmol/L in the conductivity and >60 mmol/L in the coulometric test. There were 444 infants without CF (185 males, 234 females, and 24 unreported) submitted to the sweat test through conductivity and coulometric measurement simultaneously, obtaining median results of 32 mmol/L and 12 mmol/L, respectively. For 90 infants with CF, the median values of conductivity and coulometric measurement were 108 mmol/L and 97 mmol/L, respectively. The false positive rate for conductivity was 16.7%, and was higher than 50 mmol/L in all patients with CF, which gives this method a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 93.8-97.8), specificity of 96.2% (95% CI: 93.8-97.8), positive predictive value of 83.3% (95% CI: 74.4-91.1), negative predictive value of 100% (95% CI: 90.5-109.4), and 9.8% accuracy. The correlation between the methods was r=0.97 (p>0.001). The best suggested cutoff value was 69.0 mmol/L, with a kappa coefficient=0.89. The conductivity test showed excellent correlation with the quantitative coulometric test, high sensitivity and specificity, and can be used in the diagnosis of CF in children detected through newborn screening. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Validity of a novel computerized screening test system for mild cognitive impairment.

PubMed

Park, Jin-Hyuck; Jung, Minye; Kim, Jongbae; Park, Hae Yean; Kim, Jung-Ran; Park, Ji-Hyuk

2018-06-20

ABSTRACTBackground:The mobile screening test system for screening mild cognitive impairment (mSTS-MCI) was developed for clinical use. However, the clinical usefulness of mSTS-MCI to detect elderly with MCI from those who are cognitively healthy has yet to be validated. Moreover, the comparability between this system and traditional screening tests for MCI has not been evaluated. The purpose of this study was to examine the validity and reliability of the mSTS-MCI and confirm the cut-off scores to detect MCI. The data were collected from 107 healthy elderly people and 74 elderly people with MCI. Concurrent validity was examined using the Korean version of Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA-K) as a gold standard test, and test-retest reliability was investigated using 30 of the study participants at four-week intervals. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value (NPV) were confirmed through Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the cut-off scores for elderly people with MCI were identified. Concurrent validity showed statistically significant correlations between the mSTS-MCI and MoCA-K and test-rests reliability indicated high correlation. As a result of screening predictability, the mSTS-MCI had a higher NPV than the MoCA-K. The mSTS-MCI was identified as a system with a high degree of validity and reliability. In addition, the mSTS-MCI showed high screening predictability, indicating it can be used in the clinical field as a screening test system for mild cognitive impairment.

Field evaluation of the 22 rapid diagnostic tests for community management of malaria with artemisinin combination therapy in Cameroon.

PubMed

Ali, Innocent M; Bigoga, Jude D; Forsah, Dorothy A; Cho-Ngwa, Fidelis; Tchinda, Vivian; Moor, Vicky Ama; Fogako, Josephine; Nyongalema, Philomena; Nkoa, Theresa; Same-Ekobo, Albert; Mbede, Joseph; Fondjo, Etienne; Mbacham, Wilfred F; Leke, Rose G F

2016-01-20

All suspected cases of malaria should receive a diagnostic test prior to treatment with artemisinin-based combinations based on the new WHO malaria treatment guidelines. This study compared the accuracy and some operational characteristics of 22 different immunochromatographic antigen capture point-of- malaria tests (RDTs) in Cameroon to inform test procurement prior to deployment of artemisinin-based combinations for malaria treatment. One hundred human blood samples (50 positive and 50 negative) collected from consenting febrile patients in two health centres at Yaoundé were used for evaluation of the 22 RDTs categorized as "Pf Only" (9) or "Pf + PAN" (13) based on parasite antigen captured [histidine rich protein II (HRP2) or lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH) or aldolase]. RDTs were coded to blind technicians performing the tests. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the positive and negative tests (PPV and NPV) as well as the likelihood ratios were assessed. The reliability and some operational characteristics were determined as the mean values from two assessors, and the Cohen's kappa statistic was then used to compare agreement. Light microscopy was the referent. Of all RDTs tested, 94.2 % (21/22) had sensitivity values greater than 90% among which 14 (63.6%) were 'Pf + PAN' RDTs. The specificity was generally lower than the sensitivity for all RDTs and poorer for "Pf Only" RDTs. The predictive values and likelihood ratios were better for non-HRP2 analytes for "Pf + PAN" RDTs. The Kappa value for most of the tests obtained was around 67% (95% CI 50-69%), corresponding to a moderate agreement. Overall, 94.2% (21/22) of RDTs tested had accuracy within the range recommended by the WHO, while one performed poorly, below acceptable levels. Seven "Pf + PAN" and 3 "Pf Only" RDTs were selected for further assessment based on performance characteristics. Harmonizing RDT test presentation and procedures would prevent mistakes of test performance and interpretation.

Field Telemetry of Blade-rotor Coupled Torsional Vibration at Matuura Power Station Number 1 Unit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Isii, Kuniyoshi; Murakami, Hideaki; Otawara, Yasuhiko; Okabe, Akira

1991-01-01

The quasi-modal reduction technique and finite element model (FEM) were used to construct an analytical model for the blade-rotor coupled torsional vibration of a steam turbine generator of the Matuura Power Station. A single rotor test was executed in order to evaluate umbrella vibration characteristics. Based on the single rotor test results and the quasi-modal procedure, the total rotor system was analyzed to predict coupled torsional frequencies. Finally, field measurement of the vibration of the last stage buckets was made, which confirmed that the double synchronous resonance was 124.2 Hz, meaning that the machine can be safely operated. The measured eigen values are very close to the predicted value. The single rotor test and this analytical procedure thus proved to be a valid technique to estimate coupled torsional vibration.

Turbidity determination of the critical exponent eta in the liquid-liquid mixture methanol and cyclohexane.

PubMed

Lytle, Amy; Jacobs, D T

2004-03-22

The turbidity of the liquid-liquid mixture methanol-cyclohexane has been measured very near its critical point and used to test competing theoretical predictions and to determine the critical correlation-correction exponent eta. By measuring the ratio of the transmitted to incident light intensities over five decades in reduced temperature, we are able to determine that Ferrell's theoretical prediction for the turbidity explains the data with the correlation length amplitude xi0=0.330+/-0.003 nm and critical exponents eta=0.041+/-0.005 and nu=0.632+/-0.002. These values are consistent with the values measured before for xi0 in this system and with the exponents predicted by theory. The data allow five different theoretical expressions to be tested and to select two as being equivalent when very close to the critical point. (c) 2004 American Institute of Physics

Comparison of Predicted and Measured Attenuation of Turbine Noise from a Static Engine Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chien, Eugene W.; Ruiz, Marta; Yu, Jia; Morin, Bruce L.; Cicon, Dennis; Schwieger, Paul S.; Nark, Douglas M.

2007-01-01

Aircraft noise has become an increasing concern for commercial airlines. Worldwide demand for quieter aircraft is increasing, making the prediction of engine noise suppression one of the most important fields of research. The Low-Pressure Turbine (LPT) can be an important noise source during the approach condition for commercial aircraft. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Pratt & Whitney (P&W), and Goodrich Aerostructures (Goodrich) conducted a joint program to validate a method for predicting turbine noise attenuation. The method includes noise-source estimation, acoustic treatment impedance prediction, and in-duct noise propagation analysis. Two noise propagation prediction codes, Eversman Finite Element Method (FEM) code [1] and the CDUCT-LaRC [2] code, were used in this study to compare the predicted and the measured turbine noise attenuation from a static engine test. In this paper, the test setup, test configurations and test results are detailed in Section II. A description of the input parameters, including estimated noise modal content (in terms of acoustic potential), and acoustic treatment impedance values are provided in Section III. The prediction-to-test correlation study results are illustrated and discussed in Section IV and V for the FEM and the CDUCT-LaRC codes, respectively, and a summary of the results is presented in Section VI.

Cow's milk allergy (CMA) in children: identification of allergologic tests predictive of food allergy.

PubMed

Bellini, F; Ricci, G; Remondini, D; Pession, A

2014-05-01

Oral food challenge (OFC) is still considered the gold standard for diagnosis of food allergy (FA). Skin prick test (SPT) and specific IgE (sIgE) tests are very useful but limited in their predictive accuracy. End point test (EPT) has been recently considered to determine the starting dose to induce oral desensitization. Allergometric tests combined may discriminate children at higher risk of reactions during OFC. We considered 94 children referred to our Allergy and Immunology Pediatric Department between January 2009 and December 2011 with CMA. Cutaneous allergometric skin tests (SPT and EPT) were periodically performed on all 94 children with CMA; sIgE levels against cow's milk proteins (CMP) α-lactalbumin, β-lactoglobulin and casein were periodically evaluated through blood samples every 6-12 months. During the period of the study, 26/94 (27.6%) children underwent more than once OFC. We collected 135 OFC compared with clinical presentation: 49/135 (36.2%) OFC were performed shortly after the onset of symptoms directly related to spontaneous intake of milk, to confirm suspicion of FA; 86/135 (63.7%) OFC were performed to evaluate the acquisition of tolerance. Of these, 52/86 (60.4%) OFC resulted positive, 34/86 (39.5%) were negative. The 3D EPT has the best ratio sensitivity (SE) / positive predictive value (PPV), SE 83%, specificity (SP) 58.3%, PPV 89.3%, negative predictive value (NPV) 45.1%. EPT 6D and 7D have the best PPV (100%) with a low NPV (respectively 22.2% and 21.2%). We obtained that a mean fresh milk wheal diameter ≥ 12 mm was predictive of 97% OFC, but only 32/101 (31.6%) allergic children presented this value. The tests with a wheal diameter ≤ 5 were performed on younger children, all of which were less than 9 months old; only 5 other tests performed on less than 9 months olds resulted in the others subgroups (1 in ≥ 12 mm wheal and 4 in the group between 6-11 mm). We also found that 95% of children with 4D EPT wheal diameter < 6 mm resulted tolerant. This cut off could be useful to decide which children have a lower risk of reactions during the OFC. EPT is more useful than SPT especially for children < 1 year of age being a less operator dependent test, and it could be helpful to discriminate between children with the highest risk to develop anaphylaxis following an OFC (≥ 5D positive EPT) and children with lowest risk (> 2D positive EPT), but it can't replace OFC, that currently remains the gold standard in the diagnosis of FA. We also underline that in allergic children younger than 9 months old, the values of SPT with fresh milk is much lower than in older children, so that it's better to separate this group of age when we try to predict the evolution of OFC through the evaluation with EPT. A validation of such results in a prospective study could maybe be useful to confirm the outcome of our data in the predictivity of OFC.

Tongue Blade Bite Test Predicts Mandible Fractures

PubMed Central

Neiner, John; Free, Rachael; Caldito, Gloria; Moore-Medlin, Tara; Nathan, Cherie-Ann

2015-01-01

The aim of the study is to evaluate the utility of a simple tongue blade bite test in predicting mandible fractures and use this test as an alternative screening tool for further workup. This is a retrospective chart review. An institutional review board approved the retrospective review of patients evaluated by the Department of Otolaryngology at a single institution for facial trauma performed from November 1, 2011, to February 27, 2014. Patients who had a bite test documented were included in the study. CT was performed in all cases and was used as the gold standard to diagnose mandible fractures. Variables analyzed included age, sex, fracture type/location on CT, bite test positivity, and operative intervention. A total of 86 patients met the inclusion criteria and of those 12 were pediatric patients. Majority of the patients were male (80.2%) and adult (86.0%; average age: 34.3 years). Fifty-seven patients had a negative bite test and on CT scans had no mandible fracture. Twenty-three patients had a positive bite test and a CT scan confirmed fracture. The bite test revealed a sensitivity of 88.5% (95% CI: 69.8–97.6%), specificity of 95.0% (95% CI:86.1–99%), positive predictive value [PPV] of 88.5% (95% CI: 69.8–97.6%), and negative predictive value [NPV] of 95.0% (95% CI: 86.1–99.0%). Among pediatric patients, the sensitivity was 100% (95% CI: 29.9–100%), specificity was 88.9% (95% CI: 68.4–100%), PPV was 75.0% (95% CI: 19.4–99.4%), and NPV was 100% (95% CI: 63.1–100%). The tongue blade bite test is a quick inexpensive diagnostic tool for the otolaryngologist with high sensitivity and specificity for predicting mandible fractures. In the pediatric population, where avoidance of unnecessary CT scans is of highest priority, a wider range of data collection should be undertaken to better assess its utility. PMID:27162567

Geographical distribution of reference value of aging people's left ventricular end systolic diameter based on the support vector regression.

PubMed

Han, Xiao; Ge, Miao; Dong, Jie; Xue, Ranying; Wang, Zixuan; He, Jinwei

2014-09-01

The aim of this paper is to analyze the geographical distribution of reference value of aging people's left ventricular end systolic diameter (LVDs), and to provide a scientific basis for clinical examination. The study is focus on the relationship between reference value of left ventricular end systolic diameter of aging people and 14 geographical factors, selecting 2495 samples of left ventricular end systolic diameter (LVDs) of aging people in 71 units of China, in which including 1620 men and 875 women. By using the Moran's I index to make sure the relationship between the reference values and spatial geographical factors, extracting 5 geographical factors which have significant correlation with left ventricular end systolic diameter for building the support vector regression, detecting by the method of paired sample t test to make sure the consistency between predicted and measured values, finally, makes the distribution map through the disjunctive kriging interpolation method and fits the three-dimensional trend of normal reference value. It is found that the correlation between the extracted geographical factors and the reference value of left ventricular end systolic diameter is quite significant, the 5 indexes respectively are latitude, annual mean air temperature, annual mean relative humidity, annual precipitation amount, annual range of air temperature, the predicted values and the observed ones are in good conformity, there is no significant difference at 95% degree of confidence. The overall trend of predicted values increases from west to east, increases first and then decreases from north to south. If geographical values are obtained in one region, the reference value of left ventricular end systolic diameter of aging people in this region can be obtained by using the support vector regression model. It could be more scientific to formulate the different distributions on the basis of synthesizing the physiological and the geographical factors. -Use Moran's index to analyze the spatial correlation. -Choose support vector machine to build model that overcome complexity of variables. -Test normal distribution of predicted data to guarantee the interpolation results. -Through trend analysis to explain the changes of reference value clearly. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computer-aided diagnosis of prostate cancer using a deep convolutional neural network from multiparametric MRI.

PubMed

Song, Yang; Zhang, Yu-Dong; Yan, Xu; Liu, Hui; Zhou, Minxiong; Hu, Bingwen; Yang, Guang

2018-04-16

Deep learning is the most promising methodology for automatic computer-aided diagnosis of prostate cancer (PCa) with multiparametric MRI (mp-MRI). To develop an automatic approach based on deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) to classify PCa and noncancerous tissues (NC) with mp-MRI. Retrospective. In all, 195 patients with localized PCa were collected from a PROSTATEx database. In total, 159/17/19 patients with 444/48/55 observations (215/23/23 PCas and 229/25/32 NCs) were randomly selected for training/validation/testing, respectively. T 2 -weighted, diffusion-weighted, and apparent diffusion coefficient images. A radiologist manually labeled the regions of interest of PCas and NCs and estimated the Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) scores for each region. Inspired by VGG-Net, we designed a patch-based DCNN model to distinguish between PCa and NCs based on a combination of mp-MRI data. Additionally, an enhanced prediction method was used to improve the prediction accuracy. The performance of DCNN prediction was tested using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated. Moreover, the predicted result was compared with the PI-RADS score to evaluate its clinical value using decision curve analysis. Two-sided Wilcoxon signed-rank test with statistical significance set at 0.05. The DCNN produced excellent diagnostic performance in distinguishing between PCa and NC for testing datasets with an AUC of 0.944 (95% confidence interval: 0.876-0.994), sensitivity of 87.0%, specificity of 90.6%, PPV of 87.0%, and NPV of 90.6%. The decision curve analysis revealed that the joint model of PI-RADS and DCNN provided additional net benefits compared with the DCNN model and the PI-RADS scheme. The proposed DCNN-based model with enhanced prediction yielded high performance in statistical analysis, suggesting that DCNN could be used in computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) for PCa classification. 3 Technical Efficacy: Stage 2 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2018. © 2018 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Serum Protein Electrophoresis in the Evaluation of Lytic Bone Lesions

PubMed Central

Nystrom, Lukas M.; Buckwalter, Joseph A.; Syrbu, Sergei; Miller, Benjamin J.

2013-01-01

Serum protein electrophoresis (SPEP) is often obtained at the initial evaluation of a radiolucent bone lesion of unknown etiology. The results are considered convincing evidence of the presence or absence of a plasma cell neoplasm. The sensitivity and specificity of the SPEP have not been reported in this clinical scenario. Our purpose is to assess the diagnostic value of the SPEP in the initial work-up of the radiolucent bone lesion. We identified 182 patients undergoing evaluation of a radiolucent bone lesion that included tissue biopsy and an SPEP value. We then calculated the sen-sitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of SPEP as a diagnostic test for a plasma cell neo-plasm in this clinical scenario. Forty-six of 182 (25.3%) patients in our series were diagnosed with a plasma cell neo-plasm by histopathologic analysis. The sensitivity of SPEP was 71% and the specificity was 83%. PPV was 47% and NPV was 94%. When analyzing only those presenting with multiple lesions, the percentage of patients diag-nosed with multiple myeloma increased to 44.7% (34 of 76 patients). The SPEP, however, did not have a substantially increased diagnostic accuracy with sensitivity of 71%, specificity 79%, PPV 40% and NPV 93%. SPEP lacks sensitivity and positive predictive value to provide a definitive diagnosis of myeloma in radiolucent bone lesions, but has a high negative predictive value which may make it useful in ruling out the disease. We recommend that this test either be performed in conjunction with urine electrophoresis, immunofixation electro-phoresis and free light chain assay, or after biopsy confirming the diagnosis of myeloma. PMID:24027470

Early literacy and early numeracy: the value of including early literacy skills in the prediction of numeracy development.

PubMed

Purpura, David J; Hume, Laura E; Sims, Darcey M; Lonigan, Christopher J

2011-12-01

The purpose of this study was to examine whether early literacy skills uniquely predict early numeracy skills development. During the first year of the study, 69 3- to 5-year-old preschoolers were assessed on the Preschool Early Numeracy Skills (PENS) test and the Test of Preschool Early Literacy Skills (TOPEL). Participants were assessed again a year later on the PENS test and on the Applied Problems and Calculation subtests of the Woodcock-Johnson III Tests of Achievement. Three mixed effect regressions were conducted using Time 2 PENS, Applied Problems, and Calculation as the dependent variables. Print Knowledge and Vocabulary accounted for unique variance in the prediction of Time 2 numeracy scores. Phonological Awareness did not uniquely predict any of the mathematics domains. The findings of this study identify an important link between early literacy and early numeracy development. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictable waves of sequential forest degradation and biodiversity loss spreading from an African city.

PubMed

Ahrends, Antje; Burgess, Neil D; Milledge, Simon A H; Bulling, Mark T; Fisher, Brendan; Smart, James C R; Clarke, G Philip; Mhoro, Boniface E; Lewis, Simon L

2010-08-17

Tropical forest degradation emits carbon at a rate of approximately 0.5 Pgxy(-1), reduces biodiversity, and facilitates forest clearance. Understanding degradation drivers and patterns is therefore crucial to managing forests to mitigate climate change and reduce biodiversity loss. Putative patterns of degradation affecting forest stocks, carbon, and biodiversity have variously been described previously, but these have not been quantitatively assessed together or tested systematically. Economic theory predicts a systematic allocation of land to its highest use value in response to distance from centers of demand. We tested this theory to see if forest exploitation would expand through time and space as concentric waves, with each wave targeting lower value products. We used forest data along a transect from 10 to 220 km from Dar es Salaam (DES), Tanzania, collected at two points in time (1991 and 2005). Our predictions were confirmed: high-value logging expanded 9 kmxy(-1), and an inner wave of lower value charcoal production 2 kmxy(-1). This resource utilization is shown to reduce the public goods of carbon storage and species richness, which significantly increased with each kilometer from DES [carbon, 0.2 Mgxha(-1); 0.1 species per sample area (0.4 ha)]. Our study suggests that tropical forest degradation can be modeled and predicted, with its attendant loss of some public goods. In sub-Saharan Africa, an area experiencing the highest rate of urban migration worldwide, coupled with a high dependence on forest-based resources, predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of degradation can inform policies designed to extract resources without unsustainably reducing carbon storage and biodiversity.

Classification of drug molecules considering their IC50 values using mixed-integer linear programming based hyper-boxes method.

PubMed

Armutlu, Pelin; Ozdemir, Muhittin E; Uney-Yuksektepe, Fadime; Kavakli, I Halil; Turkay, Metin

2008-10-03

A priori analysis of the activity of drugs on the target protein by computational approaches can be useful in narrowing down drug candidates for further experimental tests. Currently, there are a large number of computational methods that predict the activity of drugs on proteins. In this study, we approach the activity prediction problem as a classification problem and, we aim to improve the classification accuracy by introducing an algorithm that combines partial least squares regression with mixed-integer programming based hyper-boxes classification method, where drug molecules are classified as low active or high active regarding their binding activity (IC50 values) on target proteins. We also aim to determine the most significant molecular descriptors for the drug molecules. We first apply our approach by analyzing the activities of widely known inhibitor datasets including Acetylcholinesterase (ACHE), Benzodiazepine Receptor (BZR), Dihydrofolate Reductase (DHFR), Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) with known IC50 values. The results at this stage proved that our approach consistently gives better classification accuracies compared to 63 other reported classification methods such as SVM, Naïve Bayes, where we were able to predict the experimentally determined IC50 values with a worst case accuracy of 96%. To further test applicability of this approach we first created dataset for Cytochrome P450 C17 inhibitors and then predicted their activities with 100% accuracy. Our results indicate that this approach can be utilized to predict the inhibitory effects of inhibitors based on their molecular descriptors. This approach will not only enhance drug discovery process, but also save time and resources committed.

Choosing a model to predict hospital admission: an observational study of new variants of predictive models for case finding

PubMed Central

Billings, John; Georghiou, Theo; Blunt, Ian; Bardsley, Martin

2013-01-01

Objectives To test the performance of new variants of models to identify people at risk of an emergency hospital admission. We compared (1) the impact of using alternative data sources (hospital inpatient, A&E, outpatient and general practitioner (GP) electronic medical records) (2) the effects of local calibration on the performance of the models and (3) the choice of population denominators. Design Multivariate logistic regressions using person-level data adding each data set sequentially to test value of additional variables and denominators. Setting 5 Primary Care Trusts within England. Participants 1 836 099 people aged 18–95 registered with GPs on 31 July 2009. Main outcome measures Models to predict hospital admission and readmission were compared in terms of the positive predictive value and sensitivity for various risk strata and with the receiver operating curve C statistic. Results The addition of each data set showed moderate improvement in the number of patients identified with little or no loss of positive predictive value. However, even with inclusion of GP electronic medical record information, the algorithms identified only a small number of patients with no emergency hospital admissions in the previous 2 years. The model pooled across all sites performed almost as well as the models calibrated to local data from just one site. Using population denominators from GP registers led to better case finding. Conclusions These models provide a basis for wider application in the National Health Service. Each of the models examined produces reasonably robust performance and offers some predictive value. The addition of more complex data adds some value, but we were unable to conclude that pooled models performed less well than those in individual sites. Choices about model should be linked to the intervention design. Characteristics of patients identified by the algorithms provide useful information in the design/costing of intervention strategies to improve care coordination/outcomes for these patients. PMID:23980068

Estimating suspended sediment load with multivariate adaptive regression spline, teaching-learning based optimization, and artificial bee colony models.

PubMed

Yilmaz, Banu; Aras, Egemen; Nacar, Sinan; Kankal, Murat

2018-05-23

The functional life of a dam is often determined by the rate of sediment delivery to its reservoir. Therefore, an accurate estimate of the sediment load in rivers with dams is essential for designing and predicting a dam's useful lifespan. The most credible method is direct measurements of sediment input, but this can be very costly and it cannot always be implemented at all gauging stations. In this study, we tested various regression models to estimate suspended sediment load (SSL) at two gauging stations on the Çoruh River in Turkey, including artificial bee colony (ABC), teaching-learning-based optimization algorithm (TLBO), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). These models were also compared with one another and with classical regression analyses (CRA). Streamflow values and previously collected data of SSL were used as model inputs with predicted SSL data as output. Two different training and testing dataset configurations were used to reinforce the model accuracy. For the MARS method, the root mean square error value was found to range between 35% and 39% for the test two gauging stations, which was lower than errors for other models. Error values were even lower (7% to 15%) using another dataset. Our results indicate that simultaneous measurements of streamflow with SSL provide the most effective parameter for obtaining accurate predictive models and that MARS is the most accurate model for predicting SSL. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A demonstration of the uncertainty in predicting the estrogenic ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In vitro estrogen receptor assays are valuable screening tools for identifying environmental samples and chemicals that display estrogenic activity. However, in vitro potency cannot necessarily be extrapolated to estimates of in vivo potency because in vitro assays are currently unable to fully account for adsorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion. To explore this issue, we calculated relative potency factors (RPF) for several chemicals and mixtures in the T47D-KBluc estrogen receptor transactivation assay. The in vitro RPF values were then used to predict rat uterotrophic assay responses following oral administration of individual chemicals and mixtures. 17β-estradiol (E2), 17α-ethinyl estradiol (EE2), benzyl-butyl phthalate (BBP), bisphenol-A (BPA), bisphenol-AF (BPAF), bisphenol-C (BPC), bisphenol-S (BPS), and methoxychlor (MET) were tested individually, while BPS+MET, BPAF+MET, and BPAF+BPC+BPS+EE2+MET were tested as equipotent mixtures. In vivo ED50 values for BPA, BPAF, and BPC were accurately predicted using in vitro data; however, E2 was less potent than predicted, BBP was a false positive, and BPS and MET were 76.6 and 368.3-fold more active in vivo than predicted from the in vitro potency assessment, respectively. Further, mixture ED50 values were more accurately predicted by the dose addition model using individual chemical in vivo uterotrophic data (0.7-1.5-fold difference from observed) than in vitro data (1.4-86.8-fold). Overall,

American Gastroenterological Association guidelines are inaccurate in detecting pancreatic cysts with advanced neoplasia: a clinicopathologic study of 225 patients with supporting molecular data.

PubMed

Singhi, Aatur D; Zeh, Herbert J; Brand, Randall E; Nikiforova, Marina N; Chennat, Jennifer S; Fasanella, Kenneth E; Khalid, Asif; Papachristou, Georgios I; Slivka, Adam; Hogg, Melissa; Lee, Kenneth K; Tsung, Allan; Zureikat, Amer H; McGrath, Kevin

2016-06-01

The American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) recently reported evidence-based guidelines for the management of asymptomatic neoplastic pancreatic cysts. These guidelines advocate a higher threshold for surgical resection than prior guidelines and imaging surveillance for a considerable number of patients with pancreatic cysts. The aims of this study were to assess the accuracy of the AGA guidelines in detecting advanced neoplasia and present an alternative approach to pancreatic cysts. The study population consisted of 225 patients who underwent EUS-guided FNA for pancreatic cysts between January 2014 and May 2015. For each patient, clinical findings, EUS features, cytopathology results, carcinoembryonic antigen analysis, and molecular testing of pancreatic cyst fluid were reviewed. Molecular testing included the assessment of hotspot mutations and deletions for KRAS, GNAS, VHL, TP53, PIK3CA, and PTEN. Diagnostic pathology results were available for 41 patients (18%), with 13 (6%) harboring advanced neoplasia. Among these cases, the AGA guidelines identified advanced neoplasia with 62% sensitivity, 79% specificity, 57% positive predictive value, and 82% negative predictive value. Moreover, the AGA guidelines missed 45% of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms with adenocarcinoma or high-grade dysplasia. For cases without confirmatory pathology, 27 of 184 patients (15%) with serous cystadenomas (SCAs) based on EUS findings and/or VHL alterations would continue magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) surveillance. In comparison, a novel algorithmic pathway using molecular testing of pancreatic cyst fluid detected advanced neoplasias with 100% sensitivity, 90% specificity, 79% positive predictive value, and 100% negative predictive value. The AGA guidelines were inaccurate in detecting pancreatic cysts with advanced neoplasia. Furthermore, because the AGA guidelines manage all neoplastic cysts similarly, patients with SCAs will continue to undergo unnecessary MRI surveillance. The results of an alternative approach with integrative molecular testing are encouraging but require further validation. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Falls Risk Prediction for Older Inpatients in Acute Care Medical Wards: Is There an Interest to Combine an Early Nurse Assessment and the Artificial Neural Network Analysis?

PubMed

Beauchet, O; Noublanche, F; Simon, R; Sekhon, H; Chabot, J; Levinoff, E J; Kabeshova, A; Launay, C P

2018-01-01

Identification of the risk of falls is important among older inpatients. This study aims to examine performance criteria (i.e.; sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy) for fall prediction resulting from a nurse assessment and an artificial neural networks (ANNs) analysis in older inpatients hospitalized in acute care medical wards. A total of 848 older inpatients (mean age, 83.0±7.2 years; 41.8% female) admitted to acute care medical wards in Angers University hospital (France) were included in this study using an observational prospective cohort design. Within 24 hours after admission of older inpatients, nurses performed a bedside clinical assessment. Participants were separated into non-fallers and fallers (i.e.; ≥1 fall during hospitalization stay). The analysis was conducted using three feed forward ANNs (multilayer perceptron [MLP], averaged neural network, and neuroevolution of augmenting topologies [NEAT]). Seventy-three (8.6%) participants fell at least once during their hospital stay. ANNs showed a high specificity, regardless of which ANN was used, and the highest value reported was with MLP (99.8%). In contrast, sensitivity was lower, with values ranging between 98.4 to 14.8%. MLP had the highest accuracy (99.7). Performance criteria for fall prediction resulting from a bedside nursing assessment and an ANNs analysis was associated with a high specificity but a low sensitivity, suggesting that this combined approach should be used more as a diagnostic test than a screening test when considering older inpatients in acute care medical ward.

Study of inducer load and stress, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

A program of analysis, design, fabrication and testing has been conducted to develop computer programs for predicting rocket engine turbopump inducer hydrodynamic loading, stress magnitude and distribution, and vibration characteristics. Methods of predicting blade loading, stress, and vibration characteristics were selected from a literature search and used as a basis for the computer programs. An inducer, representative of typical rocket engine inducers, was designed, fabricated, and tested with special instrumentation selected to provide measurements of blade surface pressures and stresses. Data from the tests were compared with predicted values and the computer programs were revised as required to improve correlation. For Volume 1 see N71-20403. For Volume 2 see N71-20404.

Immunoglobulin E-mediated food allergies among adults with allergic rhinitis.

PubMed

Sahin-Yilmaz, Asli; Nocon, Cheryl C; Corey, Jacquelynne P

2010-09-01

To compare the prevalence of food allergy for peanut, shrimp, and milk in adults with allergic rhinitis and to determine predictive values of these allergens and total immunoglobulin E (IgE) to detect food allergies. Cross-sectional study. University of Chicago Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois. We retrospectively analyzed in vitro enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays of adults with rhinitis. Subjects were tested for nine inhalants and three foods (peanut, shrimp, milk) and total IgE. Subjects with food allergy history were tested with additional foods. The sensitivity (SE), specificity (SP), positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the allergens and total IgE to detect food allergies were calculated. A total of 283 subjects received in vitro tests. Forty-one percent tested negative and 59 percent tested positive for inhalants. The prevalence of subjects with a positive peanut or shrimp allergy in the inhalant-positive population was significantly greater than subjects with milk allergy (23.4% peanut [P = 0.008], 22.2% shrimp [P = 0.001], and 13.2% milk [P = 0.008], P = 0.001). For subjects with food allergy history, peanut had the best SP (100.0%), SE (28.1%), PPV (100.0%), and NPV (64.6%) in detecting allergies to other foods. In patients positive for the initial panel (inhalants and peanut), the SP, SE, PPV, and NPV of elevated total IgE was 71.4, 72.4, 77.8, and 65.2 percent, respectively. Peanut and shrimp were the most common foods encountered in adults with allergic rhinitis. Peanut was best in predicting other food allergies. Total IgE levels with inhalants plus peanut provided the optimal combination of SE, SP, PPV, and NPV. In vitro testing may be important to identify and prevent anaphylaxis to foods in adults. Copyright 2010 American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery Foundation. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of parenteral nutrition osmolarity by digital refractometry.

PubMed

Chang, Wei-Kuo; Yeh, Ming-Kung

2011-05-01

Infusion of high-osmolarity parenteral nutrition (PN) formulations into a peripheral vein will damage the vessel. In this study, the authors developed a refractometric method to predict PN formulation osmolarity for patients receiving PN. Nutrients in PN formulations were prepared for Brix value and osmolality measurement. Brix value and osmolality measurement of the dextrose, amino acids, and electrolytes were used to evaluate the limiting factor of PN osmolarity prediction. A best-fit equation was generated to predict PN osmolarity (mOsm/L): 81.05 × Brix value--116.33 (R(2) > 0.99). To validate the PN osmolarity prediction by these 4 equations, a total of 500 PN admixtures were tested. The authors found strong linear relationships between the Brix values and the osmolality measurement of dextrose (R(2) = 0.97), amino acids (R(2) = 0.99), and electrolytes (R(2) > 0.96). When PN-measured osmolality was between 600 and 900 mOsm/kg, approximately 43%, 29%, 43%, and 0% of the predicted osmolarity obtained by equations 1, 2, 3, and 4 were outside the acceptable 90% to 110% confidence interval range, respectively. When measured osmolality was between 900 and 1,500 mOsm/kg, 31%, 100%, 85%, and 15% of the predicted osmolarity by equations 1, 2, 3, and 4 were outside the acceptable 90% to 110% confidence interval range, respectively. The refractive method permits accurate PN osmolarity prediction and reasonable quality assurance before PN formulation administration.

Adverse cardiac events after orthotopic liver transplantation: a cross-sectional study in 389 consecutive patients.

PubMed

Nicolau-Raducu, Ramona; Gitman, Marina; Ganier, Donald; Loss, George E; Cohen, Ari J; Patel, Hamang; Girgrah, Nigel; Sekar, Krish; Nossaman, Bobby

2015-01-01

Current American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines caution that preoperative noninvasive cardiac tests may have poor predictive value for detecting coronary artery disease in liver transplant candidates. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the role of clinical predictor variables for early and late cardiac morbidity and mortality and the predictive values of noninvasive cardiac tests for perioperative cardiac events in a high-risk liver transplant population. In all, 389 adult recipients were retrospectively analyzed for a median follow-up time of 3.4 years (range = 2.3-4.4 years). Overall survival was 83%. During the first year after transplantation, cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rates were 15.2% and 2.8%. In patients who survived the first year, cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rates were 3.9% and 2%, with cardiovascular etiology as the third leading cause of death. Dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) and single-photon emission computed tomography had respective sensitivities of 9% and 57%, specificities of 98% and 75%, positive predictive values of 33% and 28%, and negative predictive values of 89% and 91% for predicting early cardiac events. A rate blood pressure product less than 12,000 with DSE was associated with an increased risk for postoperative atrial fibrillation. Correspondence analysis identified a statistical association between nonalcoholic steatohepatitis/cryptogenic cirrhosis and postoperative myocardial ischemia. Logistic regression identified 3 risk factors for postoperative acute coronary syndrome: age, history of coronary artery disease, and pretransplant requirement for vasopressors. Multivariable analysis showed statistical associations of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score and the development of acute kidney injury as risk factors for overall cardiac-related mortality. These findings may help in identifying high-risk patients and may lead to the development of better cardiac tests. © 2014 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

NUCLEAR AND HEAVY ION PHYSICS: α-decay half-lives of superheavy nuclei and general predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Jian-Min; Zhang, Hong-Fei; Wang, Yan-Zhao; Zuo, Wei; Su, Xin-Ning; Li, Jun-Qing

2009-08-01

The generalized liquid drop model (GLDM) and the cluster model have been employed to calculate the α-decay half-lives of superheavy nuclei (SHN) using the experimental α-decay Q values. The results of the cluster model are slightly poorer than those from the GLDM if experimental Q values are used. The prediction powers of these two models with theoretical Q values from Audi et al. (QAudi) and Muntian et al. (QM) have been tested to find that the cluster model with QAudi and QM could provide reliable results for Z > 112 but the GLDM with QAudi for Z <= 112. The half-lives of some still unknown nuclei are predicted by these two models and these results may be useful for future experimental assignment and identification.

Evaluation of Sanofi Diagnostics Pasteur Chlamydia Microplate EIA shortened assay and comparison with cell culture and Syva Chlamydia MicroTrak II EIA in high- and low-risk populations.

PubMed

Chan, E L; Brandt, K; Horsman, G

1995-11-01

Seven hundred thirty-two female urogenital samples were collected for Chlamydia trachomatis testing by both the Sanofi Diagnostics Pasteur (Chaska, Minn.) Chlamydia Microplate EIA by the shortened protocol and the Syva (San Jose, Calif.) MicroTrak II EIA, and the results were compared with those obtained by cell culture. For the analysis of samples from female patients, the patients were divided into high- and low-risk categories. An additional 121 male urethral samples were collected and tested by the Sanofi Microplate EIA and cell culture; for the analysis of samples from male patients, the patients were divided into asymptomatic and symptomatic categories. All specimens positive by enzyme immunoassay (EIA) were confirmed by a blocking assay following the respective manufacturer's instructions. Specimens negative by EIA that fell within a gray zone 30% below the cutoff and negative cultures with one or more corresponding positive EIA results were tested further by cytocentrifugation and direct immunofluorescent assay. The overall sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for Syva versus culture were 94, 98.8, 85.5 and 99.6%, respectively. After resolution, the results were 94.5, 99.6, 94.5, and 99.6%, respectively. The parallel results for the Sanofi Microplate EIA versus culture were 94.0, 98.7, and 83.9, and 99.6%, respectively, and after being resolved, the results were 94.9, 100, 100, and 99.6%, respectively. In the small male population tested, the resolved results of the Sanofi Microplate EIA versus culture demonstrated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 100, 100, 100, and 100%, respectively. The present study demonstrated that the Sanofi Microplate EIA shortened protocol is highly sensitive and specific in comparison with cell culture and the Syva MicroTrak II EIA.

Predictive utility of blood pressure, waist circumference and body mass index for metabolic syndrome in patients with schizophrenia in Singapore.

PubMed

Nurjono, Milawaty; Lee, Jimmy

2013-05-01

This study aims to examine and compare the predictive utility of blood pressure (BP), waist circumference (WC) and body mass index (BMI), and to determine optimal cut-off values in prediction of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in patients with chronic schizophrenia. About 100 patients with chronic schizophrenia were recruited. BMI and BP were measured and laboratory tests to evaluate patients' high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides and glucose levels were performed. Presence of MetS was examined according to AHA/NHLBI guidelines. Predictive utility of BP, WC and BMI was examined using receiver operating curve and discriminant indices were determined accordingly. Forty-six (46%) patients were identified to have MetS. BMI of ≥23 kg m(-2) was most accurate (AUC = 0.83, P < 0.001), with sensitivity of 93.5%, specificity of 48.1%, positive predictive value of 60.6% and negative predictive value of 92.9% in identifying MetS. This finding has immediate and significant clinical implications in the local population with schizophrenia. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Expert System Diagnosis of Cataract Eyes Using Fuzzy Mamdani Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santosa, I.; Romla, L.; Herawati, S.

2018-01-01

Cataracts are eye diseases characterized by cloudy or opacity of the lens of the eye by changing the colour of black into grey-white which slowly continues to grow and develop without feeling pain and pain that can cause blindness in human vision. Therefore, researchers make an expert system of cataract eye disease diagnosis by using Fuzzy Mamdani and how to care. The fuzzy method can convert the crisp value to linguistic value by fuzzification and includes in the rule. So this system produces an application program that can help the public in knowing cataract eye disease and how to care based on the symptoms suffered. From the results of the design implementation and testing of expert system applications to diagnose eye disease cataracts, it can be concluded that from a trial of 50 cases of data, obtained test results accuracy between system predictions with expert predictions obtained a value of 78% truth.

Academic motivation, self-concept, engagement, and performance in high school: key processes from a longitudinal perspective.

PubMed

Green, Jasmine; Liem, Gregory Arief D; Martin, Andrew J; Colmar, Susan; Marsh, Herbert W; McInerney, Dennis

2012-10-01

The study tested three theoretically/conceptually hypothesized longitudinal models of academic processes leading to academic performance. Based on a longitudinal sample of 1866 high-school students across two consecutive years of high school (Time 1 and Time 2), the model with the most superior heuristic value demonstrated: (a) academic motivation and self-concept positively predicted attitudes toward school; (b) attitudes toward school positively predicted class participation and homework completion and negatively predicted absenteeism; and (c) class participation and homework completion positively predicted test performance whilst absenteeism negatively predicted test performance. Taken together, these findings provide support for the relevance of the self-system model and, particularly, the importance of examining the dynamic relationships amongst engagement factors of the model. The study highlights implications for educational and psychological theory, measurement, and intervention. Copyright © 2012 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Status Valued Goal Objects and Performance Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hysom, Stuart J.

2009-01-01

I designed an experiment to test predictions, derived from expectation states theories, that the unequal allocation of social rewards among collective task-focused actors will affect the actors' rates of power and prestige behavior. Past research shows that allocations of exchangeable resources can have these effects. The prediction, however, is…

[Diagnostic value of a predictive model for complete ruptures of the rotator cuff associated to subacromial impingement].

PubMed

Águila-Ledesma, I R; Córdova-Fonseca, J L; Medina-Pontaza, O; Núñez-Gómez, D A; Calvache-García, C; Pérez-Atanasio, J M; Torres-González, R

2017-01-01

Pathology related to the rotator cuff remains among the most prevalent musculoskeletal diseases. There is an increasing need for imaging studies (MRI, US, arthroscopy) to test the diagnostic performance of the medical history and physical examination. To prove the diagnostic value of a clinical-radiographic predictive model to find complete ruptures of the rotator cuff. Descriptive, observational, prospective, transversal and analytical study. Fifty-five patients with preoperative shoulder pain were evaluated with 13 predictive variables: age > 50 years, nocturnal pain, muscle weakness, clinical signs of Neer, Hawkins, Jobe, external rotation lag (ERLS), belly-press, bear hug, and lift-off, radiographic measurement of subacromial space, acromial index and critical shoulder angle. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were measured in each variable, comparing the results of each one against the postoperative findings. Of the 55 patients evaluated, 42 had a complete rupture of the rotator cuff in the postoperative period. The eight variables with a higher diagnostic value were selected and a ROC curve was performed, providing an area under the curve of 0.88. This predictive model uses eight variables (age > 50 years, nocturnal pain, muscle weakness, Jobe, Hawkins, ERLS, subacromial space ≤ 6 mm, and critical shoulder angle > 35°), which together add the predictive value of 0.88 (AUC) to diagnose complete ruptures of the supraspinatus tendon.

Utility of a routine urinalysis in children who require clean intermittent catheterization.

PubMed

Forster, C S; Haslam, D B; Jackson, E; Goldstein, S L

2017-10-01

Children who require clean intermittent catheterization (CIC) frequently have positive urine cultures. However, diagnosing a urinary tract infection (UTI) can be difficult, as there are no standardized criteria. Routine urinalysis (UA) has good predictive accuracy for UTI in the general pediatric population, but data are limited on the utility of routine UA in the population of children who require CIC. To determine the utility of UA parameters (e.g. leukocyte esterase, nitrites, and pyuria) to predict UTI in children who require CIC, and identify a composite UA that has maximal predictive accuracy for UTI. A cross-sectional study of 133 children who required CIC, and had a UA and urine culture sent as part of standard of care. Patients in the no-UTI group all had UA and urine cultures sent as part of routine urodynamics, and were asymptomatic. Patients included in the UTI group had growth of ≥50,000 colony-forming units/ml of a known uropathogen on urine culture, in addition to two or more of the following symptoms: fever, abdominal pain, back pain, foul-smelling urine, new or worse incontinence, and pain with catheterization. Categorical data were compared using Chi-squared test, and continuous data were compared with Student's t-test. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for individual UA parameters, as well as the composite UA. Logistic regression was performed on potential composite UA models to identify the model that best fit the data. There was a higher proportion of patients in the no-UTI group with negative leukocyte esterase compared with the UTI group. There was a higher proportion of patients with UTI who had large leukocyte esterase and positive nitrites compared with the no-UTI group (Summary Figure). There was no between-group difference in urinary white blood cells. Positive nitrites were the most specific (84.4%) for UTI. None of the parameters had a high positive predictive value, while all had high negative predictive values. The composite model with the best Akaike information criterion was >10 urinary white blood cells and either moderate or large leukocyte esterase, which had a positive predictive value of 33.3 and a negative predictive value of 90.4. Routine UA had limited sensitivity, but moderate specificity, in predicting UTI in children who required CIC. The composite UA and moderate or large leukocyte esterase both had good negative predictive values for the outcome of UTI. Copyright © 2017 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Air Quality at First Ingress into Vehicles Visiting the International Space Station.

PubMed

Romoser, Amelia A; Scully, Robert R; Limero, Thomas F; De Vera, Vanessa; Cheng, Patti F; Hand, Jennifer J; James, John T; Ryder, Valerie E

2017-02-01

NASA regularly performs ground-based offgas tests (OGTs), which allow prediction of accumulated volatile pollutant concentrations at first entry on orbit, on whole modules and vehicles scheduled to connect to the International Space Station (ISS). These data guide crew safety operations and allow for estimation of ISS air revitalization systems impact from additional pollutant load. Since volatiles released from vehicle, module, and payload materials can affect crew health and performance, prediction of first ingress air quality is important. To assess whether toxicological risk is typically over or underpredicted, OGT and first ingress samples from 10 vehicles and modules were compared. Samples were analyzed by gas chromatography and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The rate of pollutant accumulation was extrapolated over time. Ratios of analytical values and Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentrations were used to predict total toxicity values (T-values) at first entry. Results were also compared by compound. Frequently overpredicted was 2-butanone (9/10), whereas propanal (6/10) and ethanol (8/10) were typically underpredicted, but T-values were not substantially affected. Ingress sample collection delay (estimated by octafluoropropane introduced from ISS atmosphere) and T-value prediction accuracy correlated well (R2 = 0.9008), highlighting the importance of immediate air sample collection and accounting for ISS air dilution. Importantly, T-value predictions were conservative 70% of the time. Results also suggest that T-values can be normalized to octafluoropropane levels to adjust for ISS air dilution at first ingress. Finally, OGT and ingress sampling has allowed small leaks in vehicle fluid systems to be recognized and addressed.Romoser AA, Scully RR, Limero TF, De Vera V, Cheng PF, Hand JJ, James JT, Ryder VE. Predicting air quality at first ingress into vehicles visiting the International Space Station. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(2):104-113.

Data mining methods in the prediction of Dementia: A real-data comparison of the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of linear discriminant analysis, logistic regression, neural networks, support vector machines, classification trees and random forests

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Dementia and cognitive impairment associated with aging are a major medical and social concern. Neuropsychological testing is a key element in the diagnostic procedures of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), but has presently a limited value in the prediction of progression to dementia. We advance the hypothesis that newer statistical classification methods derived from data mining and machine learning methods like Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines and Random Forests can improve accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of predictions obtained from neuropsychological testing. Seven non parametric classifiers derived from data mining methods (Multilayer Perceptrons Neural Networks, Radial Basis Function Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, CART, CHAID and QUEST Classification Trees and Random Forests) were compared to three traditional classifiers (Linear Discriminant Analysis, Quadratic Discriminant Analysis and Logistic Regression) in terms of overall classification accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, Area under the ROC curve and Press'Q. Model predictors were 10 neuropsychological tests currently used in the diagnosis of dementia. Statistical distributions of classification parameters obtained from a 5-fold cross-validation were compared using the Friedman's nonparametric test. Results Press' Q test showed that all classifiers performed better than chance alone (p < 0.05). Support Vector Machines showed the larger overall classification accuracy (Median (Me) = 0.76) an area under the ROC (Me = 0.90). However this method showed high specificity (Me = 1.0) but low sensitivity (Me = 0.3). Random Forest ranked second in overall accuracy (Me = 0.73) with high area under the ROC (Me = 0.73) specificity (Me = 0.73) and sensitivity (Me = 0.64). Linear Discriminant Analysis also showed acceptable overall accuracy (Me = 0.66), with acceptable area under the ROC (Me = 0.72) specificity (Me = 0.66) and sensitivity (Me = 0.64). The remaining classifiers showed overall classification accuracy above a median value of 0.63, but for most sensitivity was around or even lower than a median value of 0.5. Conclusions When taking into account sensitivity, specificity and overall classification accuracy Random Forests and Linear Discriminant analysis rank first among all the classifiers tested in prediction of dementia using several neuropsychological tests. These methods may be used to improve accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of Dementia predictions from neuropsychological testing. PMID:21849043

Sensitivity, specificity and predictive probability values of serum agglutination test titres for the diagnosis of Salmonella Dublin culture-positive bovine abortion and stillbirth.

PubMed

Sánchez-Miguel, C; Crilly, J; Grant, J; Mee, J F

2018-06-01

The objective of this study was to determine the diagnostic value of maternal serology for the diagnosis of Salmonella Dublin bovine abortion and stillbirth. A retrospective, unmatched, case-control study was carried out using twenty year's data (1989-2009) from bovine foetal submissions to an Irish government veterinary laboratory. Cases (n = 214) were defined as submissions with a S. Dublin culture-positive foetus from a S. Dublin unvaccinated dam where results of maternal S. Dublin serology were available. Controls (n = 415) were defined as submissions where an alternative diagnosis other than S. Dublin was made in a foetus from an S. Dublin unvaccinated dam where the results of maternal S. Dublin serology were available. A logistic regression model was fitted to the data: the dichotomous dependent variable was the S. Dublin foetal culture result, and the independent variables were the maternal serum agglutination test (SAT) titre results. Salmonella serology correctly classified 87% of S. Dublin culture-positive foetuses at a predicted probability threshold of 0.44 (cut-off at which sensitivity and specificity are at a maximum, J = 0.67). The sensitivity of the SAT at the same threshold was 73.8% (95% CI: 67.4%-79.5%), and the specificity was 93.2% (95% CI: 90.3%-95.4%). The positive and negative predictive values were 84.9% (95% CI: 79.3%-88.6%) and 87.3% (95% CI: 83.5%-91.3%), respectively. This study illustrates that the use of predicted probability values, rather than the traditional arbitrary breakpoints of negative, inconclusive and positive, increases the diagnostic value of the maternal SAT. Veterinary laboratory diagnosticians and veterinary practitioners can recover from the test results, information previously categorized, particularly from those results declared to be inconclusive. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Evaluation of a Novel Single-Tube Method for Extended Genotyping of Human Papillomavirus

PubMed Central

Serrano, I.; Wennington, H.; Graham, C.; Cubie, H.; Boland, E.; Fu, G.; Cuschieri, K.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT The use of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for surveillance and clinical applications is increasing globally, and it is important that tests are evaluated to ensure they are fit for this purpose. In this study, the performance of a new HPV genotyping test, the Papilloplex high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) test, was compared to two well-established genotyping tests. Preliminary clinical performance was also ascertained for the detection of CIN2+ in a disease-enriched retrospective cohort. A panel of 500 cervical liquid-based cytology samples with known clinical outcomes were tested by the Papilloplex HR-HPV test. Analytical concordance was compared to two assays: a Linear Array (LA) HPV genotyping test and an Optiplex HPV genotyping test. The initial clinical performance for the detection for CIN2+ samples was performed and compared to that of two clinically validated HPV tests: a RealTime High-Risk HPV test (RealTime) and a Hybrid Capture 2 HPV test (HC2). High agreement for HR-HPV was observed between the Papilloplex and LA and Optiplex HPV tests (97 and 95%, respectively), with kappa values for HPV16 and HPV18 being 0.90 and 0.81 compared to the LA and 0.70 and 0.82 compared to the Optiplex test. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the Papilloplex test for the detection of CIN2+ were 92, 54, 33, and 96%, respectively, and very similar to the values observed with RealTime and HC2. The Papilloplex HR-HPV test demonstrated a analytical performance similar to those of the two HPV genotyping tests at the HR-HPV level and the type-specific level. The preliminary data on clinical performance look encouraging, although further longitudinal studies within screening populations are required to confirm these findings. PMID:29237790

Do Different Young Plantation-Grown Species Require Different Biomass Models?

Treesearch

Bryce E. Schlaegel; Harvey E. Kennedy

1985-01-01

Sweetgum and water oak trees sampled from a plantation over 7 years were used to test whether primary tree component (bole wood, bole bark, limb wood, limb bark, and leaves) predictions could be summed to estimate total bole, total limb, and total tree values. Estimations by summing primary component predictions were not significantly different from predictions for the...

Fundamental constants and tests of theory in Rydberg states of hydrogenlike ions.

PubMed

Jentschura, Ulrich D; Mohr, Peter J; Tan, Joseph N; Wundt, Benedikt J

2008-04-25

A comparison of precision frequency measurements to quantum electrodynamics (QED) predictions for Rydberg states of hydrogenlike ions can yield information on values of fundamental constants and test theory. With the results of a calculation of a key QED contribution reported here, the uncertainty in the theory of the energy levels is reduced to a level where such a comparison can yield an improved value of the Rydberg constant.

Serum apolipoprotein A1 and haptoglobin, in patients with suspected drug-induced liver injury (DILI) as biomarkers of recovery

PubMed Central

Peta, Valentina; Tse, Chantal; Perazzo, Hugo; Munteanu, Mona; Ngo, Yen; Ngo, An; Ramanujam, Nittia; Verglas, Lea; Mallet, Maxime; Ratziu, Vlad; Thabut, Dominique; Rudler, Marika; Thibault, Vincent; Schuppe-Koistinen, Ina; Bonnefont-Rousselot, Dominique; Hainque, Bernard; Imbert-Bismut, Françoise; Merz, Michael; Kullak-Ublick, Gerd; Andrade, Raul; van Boemmel, Florian; Schott, Eckart

2017-01-01

Background There is a clear need for better biomarkers of drug-induced-liver-injury (DILI). Aims We aimed to evaluate the possible prognostic value of ActiTest and FibroTest proteins apoliprotein-A1, haptoglobin and alpha-2-macroglobulin, in patients with DILI. Methods We analyzed cases and controls included in the IMI-SAFE-T-DILI European project, from which serum samples had been stored in a dedicated biobank. The analyses of ActiTest and FibroTest had been prospectively scheduled. The primary objective was to analyze the performance (AUROC) of ActiTest components as predictors of recovery outcome defined as an ALT <2x the upper limit of normal (ULN), and BILI <2x ULN. Results After adjudication, 154 patients were considered to have DILI and 22 were considered to have acute liver injury without DILI. A multivariate regression analysis (ActiTest-DILI patent pending) combining the ActiTest components without BILI and ALT (used as references), apolipoprotein-A1, haptoglobin, alpha-2-macroglobulin and GGT, age and gender, resulted in a significant prediction of recovery with 67.0% accuracy (77/115) and an AUROC of 0.724 (P<0.001 vs. no prediction 0.500). Repeated apolipoprotein-A1 and haptoglobin remained significantly higher in the DILI cases that recovered (n = 65) versus those that did not (n = 16), at inclusion, at 4–8 weeks and at 8–12 weeks. The same results were observed after stratification on APAP cases and non-APAP cases. Conclusions We identified that apolipoprotein-A1 and haptoglobin had significant predictive values for the prediction of recovery at 12 weeks in DILI, enabling the construction of a new prognostic panel, the DILI-ActiTest, which needs to be independently validated. PMID:29287080

Prediction of light aircraft interior sound pressure level from the measured sound power flowing in to the cabin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atwal, Mahabir S.; Heitman, Karen E.; Crocker, Malcolm J.

1986-01-01

The validity of the room equation of Crocker and Price (1982) for predicting the cabin interior sound pressure level was experimentally tested using a specially constructed setup for simultaneous measurements of transmitted sound intensity and interior sound pressure levels. Using measured values of the reverberation time and transmitted intensities, the equation was used to predict the space-averaged interior sound pressure level for three different fuselage conditions. The general agreement between the room equation and experimental test data is considered good enough for this equation to be used for preliminary design studies.

Interpreting IgE sensitization tests in food allergy.

PubMed

Chokshi, Niti Y; Sicherer, Scott H

2016-01-01

Food allergies are increasing in prevalence, and with it, IgE testing to foods is becoming more commonplace. Food-specific IgE tests, including serum assays and prick skin tests, are sensitive for detecting the presence of food-specific IgE (sensitization), but specificity for predicting clinical allergy is limited. Therefore, positive tests are generally not, in isolation, diagnostic of clinical disease. However, rationale test selection and interpretation, based on clinical history and understanding of food allergy epidemiology and pathophysiology, makes these tests invaluable. Additionally, there exist highly predictive test cutoff values for common allergens in atopic children. Newer testing methodologies, such as component resolved diagnostics, are promising for increasing the utility of testing. This review highlights the use of IgE serum tests in the diagnosis of food allergy.

The application of the statistical theory of extreme values to gust-load problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Press, Harry

1950-01-01

An analysis is presented which indicates that the statistical theory of extreme values is applicable to the problems of predicting the frequency of encountering the larger gust loads and gust velocities for both specific test conditions as well as commercial transport operations. The extreme-value theory provides an analytic form for the distributions of maximum values of gust load and velocity. Methods of fitting the distribution are given along with a method of estimating the reliability of the predictions. The theory of extreme values is applied to available load data from commercial transport operations. The results indicate that the estimates of the frequency of encountering the larger loads are more consistent with the data and more reliable than those obtained in previous analyses. (author)

A modified TNM staging system for non-metastatic colorectal cancer based on nomogram analysis of SEER database.

PubMed

Kong, Xiangxing; Li, Jun; Cai, Yibo; Tian, Yu; Chi, Shengqiang; Tong, Danyang; Hu, Yeting; Yang, Qi; Li, Jingsong; Poston, Graeme; Yuan, Ying; Ding, Kefeng

2018-01-08

To revise the American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM staging system for colorectal cancer (CRC) based on a nomogram analysis of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and to prove the rationality of enhancing T stage's weighting in our previously proposed T-plus staging system. Total 115,377 non-metastatic CRC patients from SEER were randomly grouped as training and testing set by ratio 1:1. The Nomo-staging system was established via three nomograms based on 1-year, 2-year and 3-year disease specific survival (DSS) Logistic regression analysis of the training set. The predictive value of Nomo-staging system for the testing set was evaluated by concordance index (c-index), likelihood ratio (L.R.) and Akaike information criteria (AIC) for 1-year, 2-year, 3-year overall survival (OS) and DSS. Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to valuate discrimination and gradient monotonicity. And an external validation was performed on database from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University (SAHZU). Patients with T1-2 N1 and T1N2a were classified into stage II while T4 N0 patients were classified into stage III in Nomo-staging system. Kaplan-Meier survival curves of OS and DSS in testing set showed Nomo-staging system performed better in discrimination and gradient monotonicity, and the external validation in SAHZU database also showed distinctly better discrimination. The Nomo-staging system showed higher value in L.R. and c-index, and lower value in AIC when predicting OS and DSS in testing set. The Nomo-staging system showed better performance in prognosis prediction and the weight of lymph nodes status in prognosis prediction should be cautiously reconsidered.

Tuberculin Skin Tests versus Interferon-Gamma Release Assays in Tuberculosis Screening among Immigrant Visa Applicants.

PubMed

Chuke, Stella O; Yen, Nguyen Thi Ngoc; Laserson, Kayla F; Phuoc, Nguyen Huu; Trinh, Nguyen An; Nhung, Duong Thi Cam; Mai, Vo Thi Chi; Qui, An Dang; Hai, Hoang Hoa; Loan, Le Thien Huong; Jones, Warren G; Whitworth, William C; Shah, J Jina; Painter, John A; Mazurek, Gerald H; Maloney, Susan A

2014-01-01

Objective. Use of tuberculin skin tests (TSTs) and interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) as part of tuberculosis (TB) screening among immigrants from high TB-burden countries has not been fully evaluated. Methods. Prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (MTBI) based on TST, or the QuantiFERON-TB Gold test (QFT-G), was determined among immigrant applicants in Vietnam bound for the United States (US); factors associated with test results and discordance were assessed; predictive values of TST and QFT-G for identifying chest radiographs (CXRs) consistent with TB were calculated. Results. Of 1,246 immigrant visa applicants studied, 57.9% were TST positive, 28.3% were QFT-G positive, and test agreement was 59.4%. Increasing age was associated with positive TST results, positive QFT-G results, TST-positive but QFT-G-negative discordance, and abnormal CXRs consistent with TB. Positive predictive values of TST and QFT-G for an abnormal CXR were 25.9% and 25.6%, respectively. Conclusion. The estimated prevalence of MTBI among US-bound visa applicants in Vietnam based on TST was twice that based on QFT-G, and 14 times higher than a TST-based estimate of MTBI prevalence reported for the general US population in 2000. QFT-G was not better than TST at predicting abnormal CXRs consistent with TB.

Development, test-retest reliability and validity of the Pharmacy Value-Added Services Questionnaire (PVASQ).

PubMed

Tan, Christine L; Hassali, Mohamed A; Saleem, Fahad; Shafie, Asrul A; Aljadhey, Hisham; Gan, Vincent B

2015-01-01

(i) To develop the Pharmacy Value-Added Services Questionnaire (PVASQ) using emerging themes generated from interviews. (ii) To establish reliability and validity of questionnaire instrument. Using an extended Theory of Planned Behavior as the theoretical model, face-to-face interviews generated salient beliefs of pharmacy value-added services. The PVASQ was constructed initially in English incorporating important themes and later translated into the Malay language with forward and backward translation. Intention (INT) to adopt pharmacy value-added services is predicted by attitudes (ATT), subjective norms (SN), perceived behavioral control (PBC), knowledge and expectations. Using a 7-point Likert-type scale and a dichotomous scale, test-retest reliability (N=25) was assessed by administrating the questionnaire instrument twice at an interval of one week apart. Internal consistency was measured by Cronbach's alpha and construct validity between two administrations was assessed using the kappa statistic and the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Confirmatory Factor Analysis, CFA (N=410) was conducted to assess construct validity of the PVASQ. The kappa coefficients indicate a moderate to almost perfect strength of agreement between test and retest. The ICC for all scales tested for intra-rater (test-retest) reliability was good. The overall Cronbach' s alpha (N=25) is 0.912 and 0.908 for the two time points. The result of CFA (N=410) showed most items loaded strongly and correctly into corresponding factors. Only one item was eliminated. This study is the first to develop and establish the reliability and validity of the Pharmacy Value-Added Services Questionnaire instrument using the Theory of Planned Behavior as the theoretical model. The translated Malay language version of PVASQ is reliable and valid to predict Malaysian patients' intention to adopt pharmacy value-added services to collect partial medicine supply.

Acoustic emission testing of composite vessels under sustained loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lark, R. F.; Moorhead, P. E.

1978-01-01

Acoustic emission (AE) tests have been conducted on small-diameter Kevlar 49/epoxy pressure vessels subjected to long-term sustained load-to-failure tests. Single-cycle burst tests were used as a basis for determining the test pressure in the sustained-loading tests. AE data from two vessel locations were compared. The data suggest that AE from vessel wall-mounted transducers is quite different for identical vessels subjected to the same pressure loading. AE from boss-mounted transducers yielded relatively consistent values. These values were not a function of time for vessel failure. The development of an AE test procedure for predicting the residual service life or integrity of composite vessels is discussed.

Usefulness of an inexpensive, Paracheck test in detecting asymptomatic infectious reservoir of plasmodium falciparum during dry season in an inaccessible terrain in central India.

PubMed

Singh, N; Saxena, A; Sharma, V P

2002-10-01

The performance of a new indigenous rapid diagnostic test, Paracheck Pf was evaluated in detection of Plasmodium falciparum in asymptomatic children in remote forest villages of Mandla district, central India to determine the lower limits of sensitivity and specificity of rapid test. A finger prick blood sample was collected to prepare blood smear and for testing with the Paracheck test. The blood smears were read by an experienced technician blinded to the Paracheck results. The figures for specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and predictive values were calculated using microscopy as gold standard. The new diagnostic test had a sensitivity of 94% and a specificity of 89%. The positive and negative predictive values were 71% and 98%, respectively. The J -index was 0.83%. The rapid test was found to be very easy to perform and the result could be read reliably by field workers. The field evaluation with this new inexpensive test, ($0.65/test) indicates that it could be used as an epidemiological tool in the management of malaria particularly in areas where microscopy is not operationally feasible to attain the goal of the roll back malaria initiative.

Reliability and diagnostic validity of the slump knee bend neurodynamic test for upper/mid lumbar nerve root compression: a pilot study.

PubMed

Trainor, Kate; Pinnington, Mark A

2011-03-01

It has been proposed that neurodynamic examination can assist differential diagnosis of upper/mid lumbar nerve root compression; however, the diagnostic validity of many of these tests has yet to be established. This pilot study aimed to establish the diagnostic validity of the slump knee bend neurodynamic test for upper/mid lumbar nerve root compression in subjects with suspected lumbosacral radicular pain. Two independent examiners performed the slump knee bend test on subjects with radicular leg pain. Inter-tester reliability was calculated using the kappa coefficient. Slump knee bend test results were compared with magnetic resonance imaging findings, and diagnostic accuracy measures were calculated including sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios. Orthopaedic spinal clinic, secondary care. Sixteen patients with radicular leg pain. All four subjects with mid lumbar nerve root compression on magnetic resonance imaging were correctly identified with the slump knee bend test; however, it was falsely positive in two individuals without the condition. Inter-tester reliability for the slump knee bend test using the kappa coefficient was 0.71 (95% confidence interval 0.33 to 1.0). Diagnostic validity calculations for the slump knee bend test (95% confidence intervals) were: sensitivity, 100% (40 to 100%); specificity, 83% (52 to 98%); positive predictive value, 67% (22 to 96%); negative predictive value, 100% (69 to 100%); positive likelihood ratio, 6.0 (1.58 to 19.4); and negative likelihood ratio, 0 (0 to 0.6). Results indicate good inter-tester reliability and suggest that the slump knee bend test has potential to be a useful clinical test for identifying patients with mid lumbar nerve root compression. Further investigation is needed on larger numbers of patients to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2010 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic accuracy of uriSed automated urine microscopic sediment analyzer and dipstick parameters in predicting urine culture test results.

PubMed

Huysal, Kağan; Budak, Yasemin U; Karaca, Ayse Ulusoy; Aydos, Murat; Kahvecioğlu, Serdar; Bulut, Mehtap; Polat, Murat

2013-01-01

Urinary tract infection (UTI) is one of the most common types of infection. Currently, diagnosis is primarily based on microbiologic culture, which is time- and labor-consuming. The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of urinalysis results from UriSed (77 Electronica, Budapest, Hungary), an automated microscopic image-based sediment analyzer, in predicting positive urine cultures. We examined a total of 384 urine specimens from hospitalized patients and outpatients attending our hospital on the same day for urinalysis, dipstick tests and semi-quantitative urine culture. The urinalysis results were compared with those of conventional semiquantitative urine culture. Of 384 urinary specimens, 68 were positive for bacteriuria by culture, and were thus considered true positives. Comparison of these results with those obtained from the UriSed analyzer indicated that the analyzer had a specificity of 91.1%, a sensitivity of 47.0%, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 53.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 40.8-65.3), and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 88.8% (95% CI = 85.0-91.8%). The accuracy was 83.3% when the urine leukocyte parameter was used, 76.8% when bacteriuria analysis of urinary sediment was used, and 85.1% when the bacteriuria and leukocyturia parameters were combined. The presence of nitrite was the best indicator of culture positivity (99.3% specificity) but had a negative likelihood ratio of 0.7, indicating that it was not a reliable clinical test. Although the specificity of the UriSed analyzer was within acceptable limits, the sensitivity value was low. Thus, UriSed urinalysis resuIts do not accurately predict the outcome of culture.

Traditional Predictors of Academic Performance in a Medical School's Independent Study Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meleca, C. Benjamin

1995-01-01

As an initial screening device for admission to the Independent Study Program at the Ohio State University College of Medicine, a numeric value was developed for 596 first-year students. The value was based on a combination of under graduate grade point average and Medical College Admission Test scores.The predictive value of the technique was…

Field and Laboratory Studies for Increasing the Intrinsic Reward Value in Navy Jobs and Careers.

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-08-31

Cabe, P.A. The relation be- tween embedded figures test performance and simulator behavior. Journal of Applied Psychology , 1969, 5_3, 253-254. Blood... Psychology , 1973, 99, 137-139. Moses, J.L. Selecting vigilant types: Predicting vigilance per- formance by means of a field dependence test ...Laboratory Studies for Increasing the Intrinsic Reward Value in Navy Jobs and Careers Gerald V. Barrett Faye H. Dambrot Department of Psychology

Unscrambling Egg Allergy: The Diagnostic Value of Specific IgE Concentrations and Skin Prick Tests for Ovomucoid and Egg White in the Management of Children with Hen's Egg Allergy.

PubMed

Marriage, D E; Erlewyn-Lajeunesse, M; Unsworth, D J; Henderson, A J

2012-01-01

Resolution of egg allergy occurs in the majority of egg allergic children. Positive specific IgE antibodies to ovomucoid (OVM) have been suggested to be of greater predictive value for persistent egg allergy than specific IgE to egg white. The performance of OVM-specific IgE antibody levels in a cohort of children referred for a routine egg challenge was compared with egg white specific IgE levels in predicting a positive egg challenge. 24/47 subjects had persistent egg allergy. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that OVM-specific IgE testing was the most useful test for the diagnosis of persistent egg allergy. The optimal decision points for the prediction of persistent egg allergy were >0.35 kUA/L for specific IgE levels to both EW and OVM, and ≥3 mm for SPT. Children with specific IgE levels suggestive of persistent egg allergy need not be subject to an egg provocation challenge, reducing both costs and risks to the child.

Domestic estimated breeding values and genomic enhanced breeding values of bulls in comparison with their foreign genomic enhanced breeding values.

PubMed

Přibyl, J; Bauer, J; Čermák, V; Pešek, P; Přibylová, J; Šplíchal, J; Vostrá-Vydrová, H; Vostrý, L; Zavadilová, L

2015-10-01

Estimated breeding values (EBVs) and genomic enhanced breeding values (GEBVs) for milk production of young genotyped Holstein bulls were predicted using a conventional BLUP - Animal Model, a method fitting regression coefficients for loci (RRBLUP), a method utilizing the realized genomic relationship matrix (GBLUP), by a single-step procedure (ssGBLUP) and by a one-step blending procedure. Information sources for prediction were the nation-wide database of domestic Czech production records in the first lactation combined with deregressed proofs (DRP) from Interbull files (August 2013) and domestic test-day (TD) records for the first three lactations. Data from 2627 genotyped bulls were used, of which 2189 were already proven under domestic conditions. Analyses were run that used Interbull values for genotyped bulls only or that used Interbull values for all available sires. Resultant predictions were compared with GEBV of 96 young foreign bulls evaluated abroad and whose proofs were from Interbull method GMACE (August 2013) on the Czech scale. Correlations of predictions with GMACE values of foreign bulls ranged from 0.33 to 0.75. Combining domestic data with Interbull EBVs improved prediction of both EBV and GEBV. Predictions by Animal Model (traditional EBV) using only domestic first lactation records and GMACE values were correlated by only 0.33. Combining the nation-wide domestic database with all available DRP for genotyped and un-genotyped sires from Interbull resulted in an EBV correlation of 0.60, compared with 0.47 when only Interbull data were used. In all cases, GEBVs had higher correlations than traditional EBVs, and the highest correlations were for predictions from the ssGBLUP procedure using combined data (0.75), or with all available DRP from Interbull records only (one-step blending approach, 0.69). The ssGBLUP predictions using the first three domestic lactation records in the TD model were correlated with GMACE predictions by 0.69, 0.64 and 0.61 for milk yield, protein yield and fat yield, respectively.

New directions in diagnostic evaluation of insect allergy.

PubMed

Golden, David B K

2014-08-01

Diagnosis of insect sting allergy and prediction of risk of sting anaphylaxis are often difficult because tests for venom-specific IgE antibodies have a limited positive predictive value and do not reliably predict the severity of sting reactions. Component-resolved diagnosis using recombinant venom allergens has shown promise in improving the specificity of diagnostic testing for insect sting allergy. Basophil activation tests have been explored as more sensitive assays for identification of patients with insect allergy and for prediction of clinical outcomes. Measurement of mast cell mediators reflects the underlying risk for more severe reactions and limited clinical response to treatment. Measurement of IgE to recombinant venom allergens can distinguish cross-sensitization from dual sensitization to honeybee and vespid venoms, thus helping to limit venom immunotherapy to a single venom instead of multiple venoms in many patients. Basophil activation tests can detect venom allergy in patients who show no detectable venom-specific IgE in standard diagnostic tests and can predict increased risk of systemic reactions to venom immunotherapy, and to stings during and after stopping venom immunotherapy. The risk of severe or fatal anaphylaxis to stings can also be predicted by measurement of baseline serum tryptase or other mast cell mediators.

Comparison of the effectiveness of a PAMG-1 test and standard clinical assessment in the prediction of preterm birth and reduction of unnecessary hospital admissions.

PubMed

Lotfi, Ghassan; Faraz, Saima; Nasir, Razan; Somini, Sreenisha; Abdeldayem, Rasha M; Koratkar, Raghunandini; Alsawalhi, Nadia; Ammar, Abeer

2017-10-26

The purpose of this study is to first compare the performance of the PAMG-1 biomarker test to that of standard clinical assessment (SCA) for the risk assessment of spontaneous preterm delivery (sPTD) among women with symptoms of preterm labor (PTL) and then calculate the potential impact on unnecessary admission reduction. Patients of gestational age 24 0/7 -36 6/7 with PTL symptoms, cervical dilatation ≤3 cm, no intercourse within 24 h, and clinically intact membranes were recruited consecutively into this prospective observational study. Specificity (SP), sensitivity (SN), positive-predictive value (PPV), and negative-predictive value (NPV) for the PAMG-1 test and SCA, for which a positive result was defined as patient admission, for predicting spontaneous delivery ≤7 and ≤14 d of presentation were calculated. One hundred and forty-eight patients were included in the analysis, 132 of which had both SCA and PAMG-1 results available. For the prediction of sPTD ≤7 d for SCA and PAMG-1, the PPV and NPV were 10% and 100%, and 71% and 98%, respectively. For prediction of sPTD ≤14 d for SCA and PAMG-1, the PPV and NPV were 14% and 100%, and 86% and 96%, respectively. Sixty-one per cent (81/132) of patients were admitted for treatment and/or observation. Our study reinforces the critical role of the PAMG-1 biomarker test to aid in risk assessment of imminent spontaneous preterm delivery in patients with symptoms of PTL. The PAMG-1 test was found to be statistically superior to standard clinical assessment alone, with respect to specificity. Based on our data, the introduction of a PAMG-1 test result into clinical decision making could reduce up to 91% of unnecessary admissions for women presenting with threatened preterm labor.

Modeling of yield surface evolution in uniaxial and biaxial loading conditions using a prestrained large scale specimen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaman, Shakil Bin; Barlat, Frédéric; Kim, Jin Hwan

2018-05-01

Large-scale advanced high strength steel (AHSS) sheet specimens were deformed in uniaxial tension, using a novel grip system mounted on a MTS universal tension machine. After pre-strain, they were used as a pre-strained material to examine the anisotropic response in the biaxial tension tests with various load ratios, and orthogonal tension tests at 45° and 90° from the pre-strain axis. The flow curve and the instantaneous r-value of the pre-strained steel in each of the aforementioned uniaxial testing conditions were also measured and compared with those of the undeformed steel. Furthermore, an exhaustive analysis of the yield surface was also conducted and the results, prior and post-prestrain were represented and compared. The homogeneous anisotropic hardening (HAH) model [1] was employed to predict the behavior of the pre-strained material. It was found that the HAH-predicted flow curves after non-linear strain path change and the yield loci after uniaxial pre-strain were in good agreement with the experiments, while the r-value evolution after strain path change was qualitatively well predicted.

A test of prospect theory.

PubMed

Feeny, David; Eng, Ken

2005-01-01

Prospect theory (PT) hypothesizes that people judge states relative to a reference point, usually assumed to be their current health. States better than the reference point are valued on a concave portion of the utility function; worse states are valued on a convex portion. Using prospectively collected utility scores, the objective is to test empirically implications of PT. Osteoarthritis (OA) patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty periodically provided standard gamble scores for three OA hypothetical states describing mild, moderate, and severe OA as well as their subjectively defined current state (SDCS). Our hypothesis was that most patients improved between the pre- and postsurgery assessments. According to PT, scores for hypothetical states previously > SDCS but now < SDCS should be lower at the postsurgery assessment. Fourteen patients met the criteria for testing the hypothesis. Predictions were confirmed for 0 patients; there was no change or mixed results for 6 patients (42.9 percent); and scores moved in the direction opposite to that predicted by PT for 8 patients (57.1 percent). In general, the direction and magnitude of the changes in hypothetical-state scores do not conform to the predictions of PT.

Strategies for Optimizing the Diagnostic Predictive Value of Clostridium difficile Molecular Diagnostics.

PubMed

Kociolek, Larry K

2017-05-01

Because nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) do not distinguish Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and asymptomatic C. difficile carriage, the diagnostic predictive value of NAATs is limited when used in patients with a low probability of CDI. In this issue of the Journal of Clinical Microbiology , Truong et al. (J. Clin. Microbiol., 55:1276-1284, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1128/JCM.02319-16) report significant reductions in hospital-onset CDI and oral vancomycin utilization at their institution following implementation of a novel intervention that leveraged their clinical bioinformatics resources to prevent C. difficile testing of stools from patients without clinically significant diarrhea and in patients with recent laxative use. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Could texture features from preoperative CT image be used for predicting occult peritoneal carcinomatosis in patients with advanced gastric cancer?

PubMed

Kim, Hae Young; Kim, Young Hoon; Yun, Gabin; Chang, Won; Lee, Yoon Jin; Kim, Bohyoung

2018-01-01

To retrospectively investigate whether texture features obtained from preoperative CT images of advanced gastric cancer (AGC) patients could be used for the prediction of occult peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) detected during operation. 51 AGC patients with occult PC detected during operation from January 2009 to December 2012 were included as occult PC group. For the control group, other 51 AGC patients without evidence of distant metastasis including PC, and whose clinical T and N stage could be matched to those of the patients of the occult PC group, were selected from the period of January 2011 to July 2012. Each group was divided into test (n = 41) and validation cohort (n = 10). Demographic and clinical data of these patients were acquired from the hospital database. Texture features including average, standard deviation, kurtosis, skewness, entropy, correlation, and contrast were obtained from manually drawn region of interest (ROI) over the omentum on the axial CT image showing the omentum at its largest cross sectional area. After using Fisher's exact and Wilcoxon signed-rank test for comparison of the clinical and texture features between the two groups of the test cohort, conditional logistic regression analysis was performed to determine significant independent predictor for occult PC. Using the optimal cut-off value from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for the significant variables, diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were determined in the test cohort. The cut-off value of the significant variables obtained from the test cohort was then applied to the validation cohort. Bonferroni correction was used to adjust P value for multiple comparisons. Between the two groups, there was no significant difference in the clinical features. Regarding the texture features, the occult PC group showed significantly higher average, entropy, standard deviation, and significantly lower correlation (P value < 0.004 for all). Conditional logistic regression analysis demonstrated that entropy was significant independent predictor for occult PC. When the cut-off value of entropy (> 7.141) was applied to the validation cohort, sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of occult PC were 80% and 90%, respectively. For AGC patients whose PC cannot be detected with routine imaging such as CT, texture analysis may be a useful adjunct for the prediction of occult PC.

An Analysis of Model Scale Data Transformation to Full Scale Flight Using Chevron Nozzles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Clifford; Bridges, James

2003-01-01

Ground-based model scale aeroacoustic data is frequently used to predict the results of flight tests while saving time and money. The value of a model scale test is therefore dependent on how well the data can be transformed to the full scale conditions. In the spring of 2000, a model scale test was conducted to prove the value of chevron nozzles as a noise reduction device for turbojet applications. The chevron nozzle reduced noise by 2 EPNdB at an engine pressure ratio of 2.3 compared to that of the standard conic nozzle. This result led to a full scale flyover test in the spring of 2001 to verify these results. The flyover test confirmed the 2 EPNdB reduction predicted by the model scale test one year earlier. However, further analysis of the data revealed that the spectra and directivity, both on an OASPL and PNL basis, do not agree in either shape or absolute level. This paper explores these differences in an effort to improve the data transformation from model scale to full scale.

The Value of Routine Biochemical Tests in Discriminating Between Malignant and Benign Pancreatic Tumours

PubMed Central

Blind, P-J; Eriksson, S.

1991-01-01

The probability that routine hematological laboratory tests of liver and pancreatic function can discriminate between malignant and benign pancreatic tumours, incidentally detected during operation, was investigated. The records of 53 patients with a verified diagnosis of pancreatic carcinoma and 19 patients with chronic pancreatitis were reviewed with regard to preoperative total bilirubin, direct reacting bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, glutamyltranspeptidase, aminotransferases, lactic dehydrogenase and amylase. Multivariate and discriminant analysis were performed to calculate the predictive value for cancer, using SYSTAT statistical package in a Macintosh II computer. Total and direct reacting bilirubin and glutamyltranspeptidase were significantly higher in patients with pancreatic carcinoma. However, only considerably increased levels of direct reating bilirubin were predictive of pancreatic carcinoma. PMID:1931781

Anti-cetuximab IgE ELISA for identification of patients at a high risk of cetuximab-induced anaphylaxis.

PubMed

Mariotte, Delphine; Dupont, Benoît; Gervais, Radj; Galais, Marie-Pierre; Laroche, Dominique; Tranchant, Aurore; Comby, Elisabeth; Bouhier-Leporrier, Karine; Reimund, Jean-Marie; Le Mauff, Brigitte

2011-01-01

Cetuximab, a chimeric mouse-human IgG1 monoclonal antibody against the epidermal growth factor receptor, has proven effective in the treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer and squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck. However, a high incidence of immediate hypersensitivity reactions (HSR) to cetuximab after the first infusion has been observed. We have developed a test for identification of patients likely to show treatment-related HSR to cetuximab. An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for detecting anti-cetuximab IgEs was developed and tested on serum samples collected from cancer patients before start of cetuximab treatment, and from healthy blood donors. Similar levels of anti-cetuximab IgE were detected in pre-treatment patient sera (24/92, 26.1%) and sera from healthy blood donors (33/117, 28.2%). HSR were observed in 14 out of the 92 patients (15.2%), and 8 of these (57.1%) were grade 3-4. Anti-cetuximab IgEs were detected in 7/8 of the patients (87.5%) with severe HSRs as compared with 14/78 patients (17.9%) with no HSR (p=0.0002). Predictive value of the anti-cetuximab IgE test for HSR events of grades 3-4 was calculated using Receiver Operating Characteristics analysis. With a cut-off value of 29 arbitrary units for the anti-cetuximab IgE, the ELISA test showed a sensitivity of 87.5%, specificity of 82.1%, positive predictive value of 33.3% and negative predictive value of 98.5%. Anti-cetuximab IgE ELISA detection could be a valuable tool to help the physician anticipate an anaphylaxis episode following cetuximab infusion and opt for a suitable alternative treatment.

Yo-Yo IR1 vs. incremental continuous running test for prediction of 3000-m performance.

PubMed

Schmitz, Boris; Klose, Andreas; Schelleckes, Katrin; Jekat, Charlotte M; Krüger, Michael; Brand, Stefan-Martin

2017-11-01

This study aimed to compare physiological responses during the Yo-Yo intermittent recovery level 1 (Yo-Yo IR1) Test and an incremental continuous running field Test (ICRT) and to analyze their predictive value on 3000-m running performance. Forty moderately trained individuals (18 females) performed the ICRT and Yo-Yo IR1 Test to exhaustion. The ICRT was performed as graded running test with an increase of 2.0 km·h-1 after each 3 min interval for lactate diagnostic. In both tests, blood lactate levels were determined after the test and at 2 and 5 min of recovery. Heart rate (HR) was recorded to monitor differences in HR slopes and HR recovery. Comparison revealed a correlation between ICRT and Yo-Yo IR1 Test performance (R2=0.83, P<0.001), while significant differences in HRmax existed (Yo-Yo IR1, 189±10 bpm; ICRT, 195±16 bpm; P<0.005; ES=0.5). Maximum lactate levels were also different between test (Yo-Yo IR1, 10.1±2.1 mmol∙L-1; ICRT, 11.7±2.4 mmol∙L-1; P<0.01; ES=0.7). Significant inverse correlations were found between the Yo-Yo IR1 Test performance and 3000 m running time (R2=0.77, P<0.0001) as well as the ICRT and 3000 m time (R2=0.90, P<0.0001). Our data suggest that ICRT and Yo-Yo IR1 test are useful field test methods for the prediction of competitive running performances such as 3000-m runs but maximum HR and blood lactate values differ significantly. The ICRT may have higher predictive power for middle- to long- distance running performance such as 3000-m runs offering a reliable test for coaches in the recruitment of athletes or supervision of training concepts.

Medical chart validation of an algorithm for identifying multiple sclerosis relapse in healthcare claims.

PubMed

Chastek, Benjamin J; Oleen-Burkey, Merrikay; Lopez-Bresnahan, Maria V

2010-01-01

Relapse is a common measure of disease activity in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS). The objective of this study was to test the content validity of an operational algorithm for detecting relapse in claims data. A claims-based relapse detection algorithm was tested by comparing its detection rate over a 1-year period with relapses identified based on medical chart review. According to the algorithm, MS patients in a US healthcare claims database who had either (1) a primary claim for MS during hospitalization or (2) a corticosteroid claim following a MS-related outpatient visit were designated as having a relapse. Patient charts were examined for explicit indication of relapse or care suggestive of relapse. Positive and negative predictive values were calculated. Medical charts were reviewed for 300 MS patients, half of whom had a relapse according to the algorithm. The claims-based criteria correctly classified 67.3% of patients with relapses (positive predictive value) and 70.0% of patients without relapses (negative predictive value; kappa 0.373: p < 0.001). Alternative algorithms did not improve on the predictive value of the operational algorithm. Limitations of the algorithm include lack of differentiation between relapsing-remitting MS and other types, and that it does not incorporate measures of function and disability. The claims-based algorithm appeared to successfully detect moderate-to-severe MS relapse. This validated definition can be applied to future claims-based MS studies.

A Maximum Muscle Strength Prediction Formula Using Theoretical Grade 3 Muscle Strength Value in Daniels et al.'s Manual Muscle Test, in Consideration of Age: An Investigation of Hip and Knee Joint Flexion and Extension.

PubMed

Usa, Hideyuki; Matsumura, Masashi; Ichikawa, Kazuna; Takei, Hitoshi

2017-01-01

This study attempted to develop a formula for predicting maximum muscle strength value for young, middle-aged, and elderly adults using theoretical Grade 3 muscle strength value (moment fair: M f )-the static muscular moment to support a limb segment against gravity-from the manual muscle test by Daniels et al. A total of 130 healthy Japanese individuals divided by age group performed isometric muscle contractions at maximum effort for various movements of hip joint flexion and extension and knee joint flexion and extension, and the accompanying resisting force was measured and maximum muscle strength value (moment max, M m ) was calculated. Body weight and limb segment length (thigh and lower leg length) were measured, and M f was calculated using anthropometric measures and theoretical calculation. There was a linear correlation between M f and M m in each of the four movement types in all groups, excepting knee flexion in elderly. However, the formula for predicting maximum muscle strength was not sufficiently compatible in middle-aged and elderly adults, suggesting that the formula obtained in this study is applicable in young adults only.

A Maximum Muscle Strength Prediction Formula Using Theoretical Grade 3 Muscle Strength Value in Daniels et al.'s Manual Muscle Test, in Consideration of Age: An Investigation of Hip and Knee Joint Flexion and Extension

PubMed Central

Matsumura, Masashi; Ichikawa, Kazuna; Takei, Hitoshi

2017-01-01

This study attempted to develop a formula for predicting maximum muscle strength value for young, middle-aged, and elderly adults using theoretical Grade 3 muscle strength value (moment fair: Mf)—the static muscular moment to support a limb segment against gravity—from the manual muscle test by Daniels et al. A total of 130 healthy Japanese individuals divided by age group performed isometric muscle contractions at maximum effort for various movements of hip joint flexion and extension and knee joint flexion and extension, and the accompanying resisting force was measured and maximum muscle strength value (moment max, Mm) was calculated. Body weight and limb segment length (thigh and lower leg length) were measured, and Mf was calculated using anthropometric measures and theoretical calculation. There was a linear correlation between Mf and Mm in each of the four movement types in all groups, excepting knee flexion in elderly. However, the formula for predicting maximum muscle strength was not sufficiently compatible in middle-aged and elderly adults, suggesting that the formula obtained in this study is applicable in young adults only. PMID:28133549

Diagnosing diabetic foot osteomyelitis: is the combination of probe-to-bone test and plain radiography sufficient for high-risk inpatients?

PubMed

Aragón-Sánchez, J; Lipsky, Benjamin A; Lázaro-Martínez, J L

2011-02-01

To investigate the accuracy of the sequential combination of the probe-to-bone test and plain X-rays for diagnosing osteomyelitis in the foot of patients with diabetes. We prospectively compiled data on a series of 338 patients with diabetes with 356 episodes of foot infection who were hospitalized in the Diabetic Foot Unit of La Paloma Hospital from 1 October 2002 to 31 April 2010. For each patient we did a probe-to-bone test at the time of the initial evaluation and then obtained plain X-rays of the involved foot. All patients with positive results on either the probe-to-bone test or plain X-ray underwent an appropriate surgical procedure, which included obtaining a bone specimen that was processed for histology and culture. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios of the procedures, using the histopathological diagnosis of osteomyelitis as the criterion standard. Overall, 72.4% of patients had histologically proven osteomyelitis, 85.2% of whom had positive bone culture. The performance characteristics of both the probe-to-bone test and plain X-rays were excellent. The sequential diagnostic approach had a sensitivity of 0.97, specificity of 0.92, positive predictive value of 0.97, negative predictive value of 0.93, positive likelihood ratio of 12.8 and negative likelihood ratio of 0.02. Only 6.6% of patients with negative results on both diagnostic studies had osteomyelitis. Clinicians seeing patients in a setting similar to ours (specialized diabetic foot unit with a high prevalence of osteomyelitis) can confidently diagnose diabetic foot osteomyelitis when either the probe-to-bone test or a plain X-ray, or especially both, are positive. © 2011 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2011 Diabetes UK.

Blood autoantibody and cytokine profiles predict response to anti-tumor necrosis factor therapy in rheumatoid arthritis

PubMed Central

Hueber, Wolfgang; Tomooka, Beren H; Batliwalla, Franak; Li, Wentian; Monach, Paul A; Tibshirani, Robert J; Van Vollenhoven, Ronald F; Lampa, Jon; Saito, Kazuyoshi; Tanaka, Yoshiya; Genovese, Mark C; Klareskog, Lars; Gregersen, Peter K; Robinson, William H

2009-01-01

Introduction Anti-TNF therapies have revolutionized the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), a common systemic autoimmune disease involving destruction of the synovial joints. However, in the practice of rheumatology approximately one-third of patients demonstrate no clinical improvement in response to treatment with anti-TNF therapies, while another third demonstrate a partial response, and one-third an excellent and sustained response. Since no clinical or laboratory tests are available to predict response to anti-TNF therapies, great need exists for predictive biomarkers. Methods Here we present a multi-step proteomics approach using arthritis antigen arrays, a multiplex cytokine assay, and conventional ELISA, with the objective to identify a biomarker signature in three ethnically diverse cohorts of RA patients treated with the anti-TNF therapy etanercept. Results We identified a 24-biomarker signature that enabled prediction of a positive clinical response to etanercept in all three cohorts (positive predictive values 58 to 72%; negative predictive values 63 to 78%). Conclusions We identified a multi-parameter protein biomarker that enables pretreatment classification and prediction of etanercept responders, and tested this biomarker using three independent cohorts of RA patients. Although further validation in prospective and larger cohorts is needed, our observations demonstrate that multiplex characterization of autoantibodies and cytokines provides clinical utility for predicting response to the anti-TNF therapy etanercept in RA patients. PMID:19460157