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  1. Hemoglobin Screening Independently Predicts All-Cause Mortality.

    PubMed

    Fulks, Michael; Dolan, Vera F; Stout, Robert L

    2015-01-01

    Objective .- Determine if the addition of hemoglobin testing improves risk prediction for life insurance applicants. Method .- Hemoglobin results for insurance applicants tested from 1993 to 2007, with vital status determined by Social Security Death Master File follow-up in 2011, were analyzed by age and sex with and without accounting for the contribution of other test results. Results .- Hemoglobin values ≤12.0 g/dL (and possibly ≤13.0 g/dL) in females age 50+ (but not age <50) and hemoglobin values ≤13.0 g/dL in all males are associated with progressively increasing mortality risk independent of the contribution of other test values. Increased risk is also noted for hemoglobin values >15.0 g/dL (and possibly >14.0 g/dL) for all females and for hemoglobin values >16.0 g/dL for males. Conclusion .- Hemoglobin testing can add additional independent risk assessment to that obtained from other laboratory testing, BP and build in this relatively healthy insurance applicant population. Multiple studies support this finding at older ages, but data (and the prevalence of diseases impacting hemoglobin levels) are limited at younger ages. PMID:27584842

  2. Hemoglobin Screening Independently Predicts All-Cause Mortality.

    PubMed

    Fulks, Michael; Dolan, Vera F; Stout, Robert L

    2015-01-01

    Objective .- Determine if the addition of hemoglobin testing improves risk prediction for life insurance applicants. Method .- Hemoglobin results for insurance applicants tested from 1993 to 2007, with vital status determined by Social Security Death Master File follow-up in 2011, were analyzed by age and sex with and without accounting for the contribution of other test results. Results .- Hemoglobin values ≤12.0 g/dL (and possibly ≤13.0 g/dL) in females age 50+ (but not age <50) and hemoglobin values ≤13.0 g/dL in all males are associated with progressively increasing mortality risk independent of the contribution of other test values. Increased risk is also noted for hemoglobin values >15.0 g/dL (and possibly >14.0 g/dL) for all females and for hemoglobin values >16.0 g/dL for males. Conclusion .- Hemoglobin testing can add additional independent risk assessment to that obtained from other laboratory testing, BP and build in this relatively healthy insurance applicant population. Multiple studies support this finding at older ages, but data (and the prevalence of diseases impacting hemoglobin levels) are limited at younger ages.

  3. CIBMTR Chronic GVHD Risk Score Predicts Mortality in an Independent Validation Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Arora, Mukta; Hemmer, Michael T.; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Klein, John P.; Cutler, Corey S.; Urbano-Ispizua, Alvaro; Couriel, Daniel R.; Alousi, Amin M.; Gale, Robert Peter; Inamoto, Yoshihiro; Weisdorf, Daniel J.; Li, Peigang; Antin, Joseph H.; Bolwell, Brian J.; Boyiadzis, Michael; Cahn, Jean-Yves; Cairo, Mitchell S.; Isola, Luis M.; Jacobsohn, David A.; Jagasia, Madan; Klumpp, Thomas R.; Petersdorf, Effie W.; Santarone, Stella; Schouten, Harry C.; Wingard, John R.; Spellman, Stephen R.; Pavletic, Steven Z.; Lee, Stephanie J.; Horowitz, Mary M.; Flowers, Mary E.D.

    2015-01-01

    We previously reported a risk score that predicted mortality in patients with chronic graft-versus-host disease (CGVHD) after hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HCT) between 1995–2004 and reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Registry (CIBMTR). We sought to validate this risk score in an independent CIBMTR cohort of 1128 patients with CGVHD transplanted between 2005–2007 using the same inclusion criteria and risk-score calculations. According to the sum of the overall risk score (range 1 to 12), patients were assigned to 4 risk-groups (RGs): RG1 (0–2), RG2 (3–6), RG3 (7–8) and RG4 (9–10). RG3 and 4 were combined as RG4 comprised only 1% of the total cohort. Cumulative incidences of non relapse mortality (NRM) and probability of overall survival (OS) were significantly different between each RG (all p<0.01). NRM and OS at five years after CGVHD for each RG were 17% and 72% in RG1, 26% and 53% in RG2, and 44% and 25% in RG 3, respectively (all p<0.01). Our study validates the prognostic value of the CIBMTR CGVHD RGs for OS and NRM in a contemporary transplant population. The CIBMTR CGVHD RGs can be used to predict major outcomes, tailor treatment planning, and enrollment in clinical trials. PMID:25528390

  4. Right Ventricular Longitudinal Strain Measures Independently Predict Chronic Heart Failure Mortality.

    PubMed

    Iacoviello, Massimo; Citarelli, Gaetano; Antoncecchi, Valeria; Romito, Roberta; Monitillo, Francesco; Leone, Marta; Puzzovivo, Agata; Lattarulo, Maria Silvia; Rizzo, Caterina; Caldarola, Pasquale; Ciccone, Marco Matteo

    2016-07-01

    The assessment of right ventricular (RV) function still remains a challenge. Two-dimensional (2D) speckle tracking has recently been proposed to evaluate right ventricular function by analyzing myocardial deformation. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of 2D systolic strain measures of RV in predicting mortality in patients with chronic heart failure (HF). We enrolled 332 outpatients in a stable clinical condition and in conventional therapy. A right ventricular-focused four-chamber view was analyzed by 2D speckle tracking to evaluate the global longitudinal strain of RV (RV-GLS) and the strain of RV free wall (RV-fwLS). During a mean follow-up of 36 ± 26 months, 64 patients died. Both RV-GLS and RV-fwLS were associated with all-cause mortality in univariate (HR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.10-1.23; P < 0.001; C-index: 0.72; and HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.06-1.15; P < 0.001; C-index: 0.68, respectively) as well as multivariate analysis (HR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.05-1.21; P:0.001; C-index: 0.85; and HR: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.02-1.12; P:0.004; C-index: 0.84, respectively). In conclusion, our findings demonstrate the role of RV 2D strain measures to independently predict mortality. These data highlight the clinical usefulness of this echocardiographic approach in the daily management of HF outpatients.

  5. Creatinine generation is reduced in patients requiring continuous venovenous hemodialysis and independently predicts mortality

    PubMed Central

    Wilson, Francis P.; Sheehan, Jessica M.; Mariani, Laura H.; Berns, Jeffrey S.

    2012-01-01

    Background Existing systems for grading severity of acute kidney injury (AKI) rely on a change of serum creatinine concentration over a defined time interval. The rate of change in serum creatinine increases by degree of reduction in glomerular filtration rate, but is mitigated by low creatinine generation rate (CGR). Failure to appreciate variation in CGR may lead to erroneous conclusions regarding severity of AKI and distorted predictions regarding patient outcomes based on AKI severity. Methods Cohort study of 103 patients who received continuous venovenous hemodialysis (CVVHD) over a 2-year period in a tertiary care hospital setting. Study participants entered the cohort when they were anuric, receiving a stable and uninterrupted dose of CVVHD with serum creatinine in steady state. They were followed until hospital discharge. CGR was measured based on dialyzate effluent volume and effluent creatinine concentration (prospective cohort) and via effluent volume and serum creatinine concentration (retrospective cohort). Results CGR (mean 10.5, range 1.7–22.4 mg/kg/day) was substantially lower in this patient population than what would be predicted from existing equations. Correlates of CGR in multivariable analysis included the length of hospitalization prior to measurement and presence of an oncologic diagnosis. Lower CGR was independently associated with in-hospital mortality in unadjusted analysis and after multivariable adjustment for measures of severity of illness. Conclusions Grading systems for severity of AKI fail to account for variation in CGR, limiting their ability to predict relevant outcomes. Calculation of CGR is superior to other risk metrics in predicting hospital mortality in this population. PMID:22273668

  6. Cardiothoracic ratio within the “normal” range independently predicts mortality in patients undergoing coronary angiography

    PubMed Central

    Zaman, M Justin S; Sanders, Julie; Crook, Angela M; Feder, Gene; Shipley, Martin; Timmis, Adam; Hemingway, Harry

    2007-01-01

    Objective To determine whether cardiothoracic ratio (CTR), within the range conventionally considered normal, predicted prognosis in patients undergoing coronary angiography. Design Cohort study with a median of 7‐years follow‐up. Setting Consecutive patients undergoing coronary angiography at Barts and The London National Health Service (NHS) Trust. Subjects 1005 patients with CTRs measured by chest radiography, and who subsequently underwent coronary angiography. Of these patients, 7.3% had a CTR ⩾0.5 and were excluded from the analyses. Outcomes All‐cause mortality and coronary event (non‐fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death). Adjustments were made for age, left ventricular dysfunction, ACE inhibitor treatment, body mass index, number of diseased coronary vessels and past coronary artery bypass graft. Results The risk of death was increased among patients with a CTR in the upper part of the normal range. In total, 94 (18.9%) of those with a CTR below the median of 0.42 died compared with 120 (27.8%) of those with a CTR between 0.42 and 0.49 (log rank test p<0.001). After adjusting for potential confounders, this increased risk remained (adjusted HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.05). CTR, at values below 0.5, was linearly related to the risk of coronary event (test for trend p = 0.024). Conclusion : In patients undergoing coronary angiography, CTR between 0.42 and 0.49 was associated with higher mortality than in patients with smaller hearts. There was evidence of a continuous increase in risk with higher CTR. These findings, along with those in healthy populations, question the conventional textbook cut‐off point of ⩾0.5 being an abnormal CTR. PMID:17164481

  7. Red blood cell distribution width independently predicts medium-term mortality and major adverse cardiac events after an acute coronary syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Turcato, Gianni; Serafini, Valentina; Dilda, Alice; Bovo, Chiara; Caruso, Beatrice; Ricci, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Background The value of red blood cell distribution width (RDW), a simple and inexpensive measure of anisocytosis, has been associated with the outcome of many human chronic disorders. Therefore, this retrospective study was aimed to investigate whether RDW may be associated with medium-term mortality and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) after an acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Methods A total number of 979 patients diagnosed with ACS were enrolled from June 2014 to November 2014, and followed-up until June 2015. Results The RDW value in patients with 3-month MACE and in those who died was significantly higher than that of patients without 3-month MACE (13.3% vs. 14.0%; P<0.001) and those who were still alive at the end of follow-up (13.4% vs. 14.4%; P<0.001). In univariate analysis, RDW was found to be associated with 3-month MACE [odds ratio (OR), 1.70; 95% CI, 1.44–2.00, P<0.001]. In multivariate analysis, RDW remained independently associated with 3-month MACE (adjusted OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.19–1.55; P<0.001) and death (adjusted OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.05–1.71; P=0.020). The accuracy of RDW for predicting 3-month MACE was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.66–0.72; P<0.001). The most efficient discriminatory RDW value was 14.8%, which was associated with 3.8 (95% CI, 2.6–5.7; P<0.001) higher risk of 3-month MACE. Patients with RDW >14.8% exhibited a significantly short survival than those with RDW ≤14.8% (331 vs. 465 days; P<0.001). Conclusions The results of this study confirm that RDW may be a valuable, easy and inexpensive parameter for stratifying the medium-term risk in patients with ACS. PMID:27500155

  8. The prediction of in-hospital mortality by amino terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels and other independent variables in acutely ill patients with suspected heart disease.

    PubMed

    Kellett, John

    2005-06-01

    BACKGROUND: Amino terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurement can detect and assess heart failure. However, compared with traditional clinical parameters, its value in predicting the in-hospital mortality of patients with suspected heart disease has not been reported. METHODS: We examined the ability of 11 continuous and 21 categorical variables, including NT-proBNP levels measured at the time of admission, to predict in-hospital mortality. The setting was a small Irish rural hospital where 342 consecutive patients with suspected heart disease were admitted as acute medical emergencies. RESULTS: The 31 patients who died while in hospital had significantly higher NT-proBNP levels on admission than patients discharged alive (11,548+/-13,531 vs. 3805+/-6914 pg/mL, p<0.0001). Patients who died in-hospital were older, had significantly higher white cell counts, blood urea and modified early warning (MEW) scores, and lower temperatures, blood pressures and oxygen saturation. Four variables were found to be independent predictors of in-hospital mortality: a systolic blood pressure equal to or below 100 mm Hg, a urea level above 13 mmol/L, a white cell count greater than 13*10(9)/L and a NT-proBNP level greater than or equal to 11,500 pg/mL. The presence of three of these variables was associated with an in-hospital mortality rate of 54%. CONCLUSIONS: Four variables (i.e. hypotension, elevated urea, leukocytosis and elevated NT-proBNP levels) are comparable independent predictors of in-hospital mortality.

  9. Extensively drug-resistant bacteria are an independent predictive factor of mortality in 130 patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis or spontaneous bacteremia

    PubMed Central

    Alexopoulou, Alexandra; Vasilieva, Larisa; Agiasotelli, Danai; Siranidi, Kyriaki; Pouriki, Sophia; Tsiriga, Athanasia; Toutouza, Marina; Dourakis, Spyridon P

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate the epidemiology and outcomes of culture-positive spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) and spontaneous bacteremia (SB) in decompensated cirrhosis. METHODS: We prospectively collected clinical, laboratory characteristics, type of administered antibiotic, susceptibility and resistance of bacteria to antibiotics in one hundred thirty cases (68.5% males) with positive ascitic fluid and/or blood cultures during the period from January 1, 2012 to May 30, 2014. All patients with SBP had polymorphonuclear cell count in ascitic fluid > 250/mm3. In patients with SB a thorough study did not reveal any other cause of bacteremia. The patients were followed-up for a 30-d period following diagnosis of the infection. The final outcome of the patients was recorded in the end of follow-up and comparison among 3 groups of patients according to the pattern of drug resistance was performed. RESULTS: Gram-positive-cocci (GPC) were found in half of the cases. The most prevalent organisms in a descending order were Escherichia coli (33), Enterococcus spp (30), Streptococcus spp (25), Klebsiella pneumonia (16), S. aureus (8), Pseudomanas aeruginosa (5), other Gram-negative-bacteria (GNB) (11) and anaerobes (2). Overall, 20.8% of isolates were multidrug-resistant (MDR) and 10% extensively drug-resistant (XDR). Health-care-associated (HCA) and/or nosocomial infections were present in 100% of MDR/XDR and in 65.5% of non-DR cases. Meropenem was the empirically prescribed antibiotic in HCA/nosocomial infections showing a drug-resistance rate of 30.7% while third generation cephalosporins of 43.8%. Meropenem was ineffective on both XDR bacteria and Enterococcus faecium (E. faecium). All but one XDR were susceptible to colistin while all GPC (including E. faecium) and the 86% of GNB to tigecycline. Overall 30-d mortality was 37.7% (69.2% for XDR and 34.2% for the rest of the patients) (log rank, P = 0.015). In multivariate analysis, factors adversely affecting outcome included

  10. Tree mortality predicted from drought-induced vascular damage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderegg, William R. L.; Flint, Alan; Huang, Cho-Ying; Flint, Lorraine; Berry, Joseph A.; Davis, Frank W.; Sperry, John S.; Field, Christopher B.

    2015-05-01

    The projected responses of forest ecosystems to warming and drying associated with twenty-first-century climate change vary widely from resiliency to widespread tree mortality. Current vegetation models lack the ability to account for mortality of overstorey trees during extreme drought owing to uncertainties in mechanisms and thresholds causing mortality. Here we assess the causes of tree mortality, using field measurements of branch hydraulic conductivity during ongoing mortality in Populus tremuloides in the southwestern United States and a detailed plant hydraulics model. We identify a lethal plant water stress threshold that corresponds with a loss of vascular transport capacity from air entry into the xylem. We then use this hydraulic-based threshold to simulate forest dieback during historical drought, and compare predictions against three independent mortality data sets. The hydraulic threshold predicted with 75% accuracy regional patterns of tree mortality as found in field plots and mortality maps derived from Landsat imagery. In a high-emissions scenario, climate models project that drought stress will exceed the observed mortality threshold in the southwestern United States by the 2050s. Our approach provides a powerful and tractable way of incorporating tree mortality into vegetation models to resolve uncertainty over the fate of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.

  11. Prediction of Mortality Based on Facial Characteristics

    PubMed Central

    Delorme, Arnaud; Pierce, Alan; Michel, Leena; Radin, Dean

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that characteristics of the face contain a wealth of information about health, age and chronic clinical conditions. Such studies involve objective measurement of facial features correlated with historical health information. But some individuals also claim to be adept at gauging mortality based on a glance at a person’s photograph. To test this claim, we invited 12 such individuals to see if they could determine if a person was alive or dead based solely on a brief examination of facial photographs. All photos used in the experiment were transformed into a uniform gray scale and then counterbalanced across eight categories: gender, age, gaze direction, glasses, head position, smile, hair color, and image resolution. Participants examined 404 photographs displayed on a computer monitor, one photo at a time, each shown for a maximum of 8 s. Half of the individuals in the photos were deceased, and half were alive at the time the experiment was conducted. Participants were asked to press a button if they thought the person in a photo was living or deceased. Overall mean accuracy on this task was 53.8%, where 50% was expected by chance (p < 0.004, two-tail). Statistically significant accuracy was independently obtained in 5 of the 12 participants. We also collected 32-channel electrophysiological recordings and observed a robust difference between images of deceased individuals correctly vs. incorrectly classified in the early event related potential (ERP) at 100 ms post-stimulus onset. Our results support claims of individuals who report that some as-yet unknown features of the face predict mortality. The results are also compatible with claims about clairvoyance warrants further investigation. PMID:27242466

  12. Skin autofluorescence predicts cardiovascular mortality in patients on chronic hemodialysis.

    PubMed

    Kimura, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Kenichi; Kanno, Makoto; Watanabe, Kimio; Hayashi, Yoshimitsu; Asahi, Koichi; Suzuki, Hodaka; Sato, Keiji; Sakaue, Michiaki; Terawaki, Hiroyuki; Nakayama, Masaaki; Miyata, Toshio; Watanabe, Tsuyoshi

    2014-10-01

    Tissue accumulation of advanced glycation end products (AGE) is thought to contribute to the progression of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Skin autofluorescence, a non-invasive measure of AGE accumulation using autofluorescence of the skin under ultraviolet light, has been reported to be an independent predictor of mortality associated with CVD in Caucasian patients on chronic hemodialysis. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of skin autofluorescence on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis. Baseline skin autofluorescence was measured with an autofluorescence reader in 128 non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality was monitored prospectively during a period of 6 years. During the follow-up period, 42 of the 128 patients died; 19 of those patients died of CVD. Skin autofluorescence did not have a significant effect on all-cause mortality. However, age, carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT), serum albumin, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), skin autofluorescence and pre-existing CVD were significantly correlated with cardiovascular mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed skin autofluorescence (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 3.97; 95% confidence interval [CI]1.67-9.43), serum albumin (adjusted HR 0.05; 95% CI 0.01-0.32), and hsCRP (adjusted HR 1.55; 95% CI 1.18-2.05) to be independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality. The present study suggests that skin autofluorescence is an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality in non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis.

  13. Skin autofluorescence predicts cardiovascular mortality in patients on chronic hemodialysis.

    PubMed

    Kimura, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Kenichi; Kanno, Makoto; Watanabe, Kimio; Hayashi, Yoshimitsu; Asahi, Koichi; Suzuki, Hodaka; Sato, Keiji; Sakaue, Michiaki; Terawaki, Hiroyuki; Nakayama, Masaaki; Miyata, Toshio; Watanabe, Tsuyoshi

    2014-10-01

    Tissue accumulation of advanced glycation end products (AGE) is thought to contribute to the progression of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Skin autofluorescence, a non-invasive measure of AGE accumulation using autofluorescence of the skin under ultraviolet light, has been reported to be an independent predictor of mortality associated with CVD in Caucasian patients on chronic hemodialysis. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of skin autofluorescence on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis. Baseline skin autofluorescence was measured with an autofluorescence reader in 128 non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality was monitored prospectively during a period of 6 years. During the follow-up period, 42 of the 128 patients died; 19 of those patients died of CVD. Skin autofluorescence did not have a significant effect on all-cause mortality. However, age, carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT), serum albumin, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), skin autofluorescence and pre-existing CVD were significantly correlated with cardiovascular mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed skin autofluorescence (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 3.97; 95% confidence interval [CI]1.67-9.43), serum albumin (adjusted HR 0.05; 95% CI 0.01-0.32), and hsCRP (adjusted HR 1.55; 95% CI 1.18-2.05) to be independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality. The present study suggests that skin autofluorescence is an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality in non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis. PMID:24456287

  14. Personalizing Mortality Prediction With Psychosocial Questionnaire Data

    PubMed Central

    Chapman, Benjamin P.; Weiss, Alexander; Fiscella, Kevin; Muennig, Peter; Kawachi, Ichiro; Duberstein, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Background Predicting risk of premature death is one of the most basic tasks in medicine and public health, but has proven difficult over the long term even with the best prognostic models. One popular strategy has been to improve prognostic models with candidate genes and other novel biomarkers. However, the gains in predictive power have been modest and the costs have been high, leading to a demand for cost-effective alternatives. We conducted a proof-of-principle investigation to examine whether simple, cheap, and non-invasive paper-and-pencil measures of social class and personality phenotype could improve the performance of one of the most widely used prediction models for all-cause mortality, the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Methods We used data from baseline and 25-year mortality follow-up of the UK Health and Lifestyle Study cohort. In a subset of the cohort, we first identified five psychosocial factors highly predictive of mortality: income, education, Type A personality, communalism (preference for the company of others), and “lie” scale (a measure of denial, putatively associated with ill-health). We then examined the predictive performance of the Charlson CCI with and without these measures in a validation subsample. Results Across 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25-year time horizons, the psychosocially augmented CCI showed substantially better discrimination (AUCs (95% CI) from .83 (.81, .85) to .84 (.83 .86)) than the CCI (AUCs from .74 (.71, .76) to .77 (.76 to .79)). These translated into net reclassification improvements from 27% (23%, 31%) to 35% (32%, 38%) of survivors and from 23% (17%, 30%) to 34% (17%, 30%) of decedents; and 23%–42% reductions in the Number Needed to Screen. Calibration improved at all time horizons except 25 years, where it was decreased. Conclusion Widespread attempts to improve prognostic models might consider not only novel biomarkers, but also psychosocial questionnaire measures. PMID:26421372

  15. Overhydration Is a Strong Predictor of Mortality in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients – Independently of Cardiac Failure

    PubMed Central

    Jotterand Drepper, Valérie; Kihm, Lars P.; Kälble, Florian; Diekmann, Christian; Seckinger, Joerg; Sommerer, Claudia; Zeier, Martin; Schwenger, Vedat

    2016-01-01

    Background Overhydration is a common problem in peritoneal dialysis patients and has been shown to be associated with mortality. However, it still remains unclear whether overhydration per se is predictive of mortality or whether it is mainly a reflection of underlying comorbidities. The purpose of our study was to assess overhydration in peritoneal dialysis patients using bioimpedance spectroscopy and to investigate whether overhydration is an independent predictor of mortality. Methods We analyzed and followed 54 peritoneal dialysis patients between June 2008 and December 2014. All patients underwent bioimpedance spectroscopy measurement once and were allocated to normohydrated and overhydrated groups. Overhydration was defined as an absolute overhydration/extracellular volume ratio > 15%. Simultaneously, clinical, echocardiographic and laboratory data were assessed. Heart failure was defined either on echocardiography, as a reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, or clinically according to the New York Heart Association functional classification. Patient survival was documented up until December 31st 2014. Factors associated with mortality were identified and a multivariable Cox regression model was used to identify independent predictors of mortality. Results Apart from higher daily peritoneal ultrafiltration rate and cumulative diuretic dose in overhydrated patients, there were no significant differences between the 2 groups, in particular with respect to gender, body mass index, comorbidity and cardiac medication. Mortality was higher in overhydrated than in euvolemic patients. In the univariate analysis, increased age, overhydration, low diastolic blood pressure, raised troponin and NTproBNP, hypoalbuminemia, heart failure but not CRP were predictive of mortality. After adjustment, only overhydration, increased age and low diastolic blood pressure remained statistically significant in the multivariate analysis. Conclusions Overhydration remains an

  16. Olfactory dysfunction predicts 5-year mortality in older adults.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Jayant M; Wroblewski, Kristen E; Kern, David W; Schumm, L Philip; McClintock, Martha K

    2014-01-01

    Prediction of mortality has focused on disease and frailty, although antecedent biomarkers may herald broad physiological decline. Olfaction, an ancestral chemical system, is a strong candidate biomarker because it is linked to diverse physiological processes. We sought to determine if olfactory dysfunction is a harbinger of 5-year mortality in the National Social Life, Health and Aging Project [NSHAP], a nationally representative sample of older U.S. adults. 3,005 community-dwelling adults aged 57-85 were studied in 2005-6 (Wave 1) and their mortality determined in 2010-11 (Wave 2). Olfactory dysfunction, determined objectively at Wave 1, was used to estimate the odds of 5-year, all cause mortality via logistic regression, controlling for demographics and health factors. Mortality for anosmic older adults was four times that of normosmic individuals while hyposmic individuals had intermediate mortality (p<0.001), a "dose-dependent" effect present across the age range. In a comprehensive model that included potential confounding factors, anosmic older adults had over three times the odds of death compared to normosmic individuals (OR, 3.37 [95%CI 2.04, 5.57]), higher than and independent of known leading causes of death, and did not result from the following mechanisms: nutrition, cognitive function, mental health, smoking and alcohol abuse or frailty. Olfactory function is thus one of the strongest predictors of 5-year mortality and may serve as a bellwether for slowed cellular regeneration or as a marker of cumulative toxic environmental exposures. This finding provides clues for pinpointing an underlying mechanism related to a fundamental component of the aging process.

  17. Predicting mortality based on body composition analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Tellado, J M; Garcia-Sabrido, J L; Hanley, J A; Shizgal, H M; Christou, N V

    1989-01-01

    The role of the Nae/Ke ratio (the ratio of exchangeable sodium to exchangeable potassium) was examined as a nutritional marker in surgical patients in relation to anthropometrical and biochemical indexes by its ability to identify patients at risk for mortality after hospitalization. In 73 patients with sepsis and malnutrition (Training Group, Madrid) the following were determined: percentage of recent weight loss, triceps skin fold, midarm muscle circumference, serum albumin, serum transferrin, delayed hypersensitivity skin test response, total lymphocytes, and Nae/Ke ratio by multiple isotope dilution. The predictive power of Nae/Ke ratio was so strong (F = 105.1; p less than 0.00001) that it displaced anthropometric, biochemical, and immunologic variables from the linear equation derived from stepwise discriminant analysis using hospital mortality as the dependent variable. A theoretical curve of expected deaths was developed, based on an equation obtained by logistic regression analysis: Pr/death/ = 1/(1 + e[11.8-5.2 Nae/Ke]). Pre- and post-test probabilities on that curve allowed us to determine two cut-off values, Nae/Ke ratios of 1.5 and 2.5, which were markers for nonrisk and mortality, respectively. The model was tested in a heterogeneous data base of surgical patients (n = 417) in another hospital (Validation Group, Montreal). For patients exhibiting an abnormal Nae/Ke ratio (greater than 1.2) and a greater than 10% of probability of death, 54 deaths were expected and 53 observed (X2 = 1.8 NS). Two tests confirmed the basic agreement between the model and its performance, a G statistic of -0.704 and the area beneath the "receiver-operating-characteristic" (ROC) curve (Az = 0.904 + 0.0516 for the Madrid group vs. Az = 0.915 + 0.0349 for the Montreal group, NS). It was concluded from this analysis that, compared with the usual anthropometric measurements, the Nae/Ke ratio, if available, is the best method for identifying malnourished patients at risk of

  18. Illness Beliefs Predict Mortality in Patients with Diabetic Foot Ulcers

    PubMed Central

    Vedhara, Kavita; Dawe, Karen; Miles, Jeremy N. V.; Wetherell, Mark A.; Cullum, Nicky; Dayan, Colin; Drake, Nicola; Price, Patricia; Tarlton, John; Weinman, John; Day, Andrew; Campbell, Rona; Reps, Jenna; Soria, Daniele

    2016-01-01

    Background Patients’ illness beliefs have been associated with glycaemic control in diabetes and survival in other conditions. Objective We examined whether illness beliefs independently predicted survival in patients with diabetes and foot ulceration. Methods Patients (n = 169) were recruited between 2002 and 2007. Data on illness beliefs were collected at baseline. Data on survival were extracted on 1st November 2011. Number of days survived reflected the number of days from date of recruitment to 1st November 2011. Results Cox regressions examined the predictors of time to death and identified ischemia and identity beliefs (beliefs regarding symptoms associated with foot ulceration) as significant predictors of time to death. Conclusions Our data indicate that illness beliefs have a significant independent effect on survival in patients with diabetes and foot ulceration. These findings suggest that illness beliefs could improve our understanding of mortality risk in this patient group and could also be the basis for future therapeutic interventions to improve survival. PMID:27096609

  19. Hemoglobin Variability Does Not Predict Mortality in European Hemodialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Joseph; Kronenberg, Florian; Aljama, Pedro; Anker, Stefan D.; Canaud, Bernard; Molemans, Bart; Stenvinkel, Peter; Schernthaner, Guntram; Ireland, Elizabeth; Fouqueray, Bruno; Macdougall, Iain C.

    2010-01-01

    Patients with CKD exhibit significant within-patient hemoglobin (Hb) level variability, especially with the use of erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESAs) and iron. Analyses of dialysis cohorts in the United States produced conflicting results regarding the association of Hb variability with patient outcomes. Here, we determined Hb variability in 5037 European hemodialysis (HD) patients treated over 2 years to identify predictors of high variability and to evaluate its association with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. We assessed Hb variability with various methods using SD, residual SD, time-in-target (11.0 to 12.5 g/dl), fluctuation across thresholds, and area under the curve (AUC). Hb variability was significantly greater among incident patients than prevalent patients. Compared with previously described cohorts in the United States, residual SD was similar but fluctuations above target were less frequent. Using logistic regression, age, body mass index, CVD history, dialysis vintage, serum albumin, Hb, angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) use, ESA use, dialysis access type, dialysis access change, and hospitalizations were significant predictors of high variability. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression showed that SD, residual SD, time-in-target, and AUC did not predict all-cause or CVD mortality during a median follow-up of 12.4 months (IQR: 7.7 to 17.4). However, patients with consistently low levels of Hb (<11 g/dl) and those who fluctuated between the target range and <11 g/dl had increased risks for death (RR 2.34; 95% CI: 1.24 to 4.41 and RR 1.74; 95% CI: 1.00 to 3.04, respectively). In conclusion, although Hb variability is common in European HD patients, it does not independently predict mortality. PMID:20798262

  20. Prediction of mortality rates in the presence of missing values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

    2015-12-01

    A time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied in the past literature on the United States (US) mortality data from the years 1933 to 2000 to forecast the future age-specific mortality rates of the years 2001 to 2010. In this paper, we show that the method based on multivariate power-normal distribution can still be used for an incomplete US mortality dataset that contains some missing values. The prediction intervals based on this incomplete training data are found to still have good ability of covering the observed future mortality rates although the interval lengths may become wider for long-range prediction.

  1. Mortality of atomic bomb survivors predicted from laboratory animals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carnes, Bruce A.; Grahn, Douglas; Hoel, David

    2003-01-01

    Exposure, pathology and mortality data for mice, dogs and humans were examined to determine whether accurate interspecies predictions of radiation-induced mortality could be achieved. The analyses revealed that (1) days of life lost per unit dose can be estimated for a species even without information on radiation effects in that species, and (2) accurate predictions of age-specific radiation-induced mortality in beagles and the atomic bomb survivors can be obtained from a dose-response model for comparably exposed mice. These findings illustrate the value of comparative mortality analyses and the relevance of animal data to the study of human health effects.

  2. Predicting drought-induced tree mortality in the western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderegg, W.; Wolf, A.; Shevliakova, E.; Pacala, S. W.

    2015-12-01

    Projected responses of forest ecosystems to warming and drying associated with 21st century climate change vary widely from resiliency to widespread dieback. A major shortcoming of current vegetation models is the inability to account for mortality of overstory trees during extreme drought due to uncertainties in mechanisms and thresholds. In this talk, I discuss two modeling efforts to predict drought-induced tree mortality in the western United States. In the first, we identify a lethal drought threshold in the loss of vascular transport capacity from xylem cavitation, which provides insight into what initiates mortality, in Populus tremuloides in the southwestern United States. We then use the hydraulic-based threshold to produce a hindcast of a drought-induced forest dieback and compare predictions against three independent regional mortality datasets. The hydraulic threshold predicted major regional patterns of tree mortality with high accuracy based on field plots and mortality maps derived from Landsat imagery. Climate model simulations project increasing drought stress in this region that exceeds the observed mortality threshold in the high emissions scenario by the 2050s, likely triggering further widespread diebacks. In the second approach, we build a dynamic plant hydraulic model into a land-surface model and compare predictions against observed mortality patterns across multiple species. These methods provide powerful and tractable approaches for incorporating tree mortality into vegetation models to resolve uncertainty over the fate of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.

  3. The epigenetic clock and telomere length are independently associated with chronological age and mortality

    PubMed Central

    Marioni, Riccardo E; Harris, Sarah E; Shah, Sonia; McRae, Allan F; von Zglinicki, Thomas; Martin-Ruiz, Carmen; Wray, Naomi R; Visscher, Peter M; Deary, Ian J

    2016-01-01

    Background: Telomere length and DNA methylation have been proposed as biological clock measures that track chronological age. Whether they change in tandem, or contribute independently to the prediction of chronological age, is not known. Methods: We address these points using data from two Scottish cohorts: the Lothian Birth Cohorts of 1921 (LBC1921) and 1936 (LBC1936). Telomere length and epigenetic clock estimates from DNA methylation were measured in 920 LBC1936 participants (ages 70, 73 and 76 years) and in 414 LBC1921 participants (ages 79, 87 and 90 years). Results: The epigenetic clock changed over time at roughly the same rate as chronological age in both cohorts. Telomere length decreased at 48–67 base pairs per year on average. Weak, non-significant correlations were found between epigenetic clock estimates and telomere length. Telomere length explained 6.6% of the variance in age in LBC1921, the epigenetic clock explained 10.0%, and combined they explained 17.3% (all P < 1 × 10−7). Corresponding figures for the LBC1936 cohort were 14.3%, 11.7% and 19.5% (all P < 1 × 10−12). In a combined cohorts analysis, the respective estimates were 2.8%, 28.5% and 29.5%. Also in a combined cohorts analysis, a one standard deviation increase in baseline epigenetic age was linked to a 22% increased mortality risk (P = 2.6 × 10−4) whereas, in the same model, a one standard deviation increase in baseline telomere length was independently linked to an 11% decreased mortality risk (P = 0.06). Conclusions: These results suggest that telomere length and epigenetic clock estimates are independent predictors of chronological age and mortality risk. PMID:27075770

  4. Variability in Physical Activity Assessed with Accelerometer Is an Independent Predictor of Mortality in CHF Patients

    PubMed Central

    Melin, Michael; Hagerman, Inger; Gonon, Adrian; Gustafsson, Thomas; Rullman, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Aims Patients with heart failure often display a distinct pattern of walking characterized by short step-length and frequent short pauses. In the current study we sought to explore if qualitative aspects of movement have any additive value to established factors to predict all-cause mortality in patients with advanced heart failure. Methods and results 60 patients with advanced heart failure (NYHA III, peak VO2 <20 ml/kg and LVEF <35%) underwent symptom-limited CPX, echocardiography and routine chemistry. Physical activity was assessed using an accelerometer worn attached to the waist during waking hours for 7 consecutive days. The heart-failure survival score (HFSS) was calculated for each patient. All accelerometer-derived variables were analyzed with regard to all-cause mortality and added to a baseline model utilizing HFSS scores. HFSS score was significantly associated with the incidence of death (P<0.001; c-index 0.71; CI, 0.67–0.73). The addition of peak skewness to the HFSS model significantly improved the predictive ability with an increase in c-index to 0.74 (CI, 0.69–0.78), likelihood ratio P<0.02, establishing skewness as a predictor of increased event rates when accounting for baseline risk. Conclusion The feature skewness, a measure of asymmetry in the intensity level of periods of high physical activity, was identified to be predictive of all-cause mortality independent of the established prognostic model–HFSS and peak VO2. The findings from the present study emphasize the use of accelerometer analysis in clinical practice to make more accurate prognoses in addition to extract features of physical activity relevant to functional classification. PMID:27054323

  5. Thermal mortality prediction equations for entrainable striped bass

    SciTech Connect

    Kellogg, R.J.; Ligotino, R.J.; Jinks, S.M.

    1984-11-01

    Thermal mortality prediction equations based on a logistic regression model were developed for eggs, for yolk-sac larvae, and for postyolk-sac larvae plus early juveniles of striped bass Morone saxatilis. Exposure temperature, exposure duration, acclimation temperature, and fish size were important explanatory variables. Mortality increased as test temperature and exposure duration increased and decreased as acclimation temperature and size increased. In addition to these main variables, interaction terms significantly improved the performance of the equations for yolk-sac larvae and for postyolk-sac larvae plus early juveniles. These mortality models can be used to make predictive assessments of the thermal component of entrainment mortality or to help determine power plant operating conditions that minimize the entrainment impact. 23 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.

  6. Model for predicting short-term mortality of severe sepsis

    PubMed Central

    Adrie, Christophe; Francais, Adrien; Alvarez-Gonzalez, Antonio; Mounier, Roman; Azoulay, Elie; Zahar, Jean-Ralph; Clec'h, Christophe; Goldgran-Toledano, Dany; Hammer, Laure; Descorps-Declere, Adrien; Jamali, Samir; Timsit, Jean-Francois

    2009-01-01

    Introduction To establish a prognostic model for predicting 14-day mortality in ICU patients with severe sepsis overall and according to place of infection acquisition and to sepsis episode number. Methods In this prospective multicentre observational study on a multicentre database (OUTCOMEREA) including data from 12 ICUs, 2268 patients with 2737 episodes of severe sepsis were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 1458) and a validation cohort (n = 810). Up to four consecutive severe sepsis episodes per patient occurring within the first 28 ICU days were included. We developed a prognostic model for predicting death within 14 days after each episode, based on patient data available at sepsis onset. Results Independent predictors of death were logistic organ dysfunction (odds ratio (OR), 1.22 per point, P < 10-4), septic shock (OR, 1.40; P = 0.01), rank of severe sepsis episode (1 reference, 2: OR, 1.26; P = 0.10 ≥ 3: OR, 2.64; P < 10-3), multiple sources of infection (OR; 1.45, P = 0.03), simplified acute physiology score II (OR, 1.02 per point; P < 10-4), McCabe score ([greater than or equal to]2) (OR, 1.96; P < 10-4), and number of chronic co-morbidities (1: OR, 1.75; P < 10-3, ≥ 2: OR, 2.24, P < 10-3). Validity of the model was good in whole cohorts (AUC-ROC, 0.76; 95%CI, 0.74 to 0.79; and HL Chi-square: 15.3 (P = 0.06) for all episodes pooled). Conclusions In ICU patients, a prognostic model based on a few easily obtained variables is effective in predicting death within 14 days after the first to fourth episode of severe sepsis complicating community-, hospital-, or ICU-acquired infection. PMID:19454002

  7. Short-Term Mortality Prediction for Acute Lung Injury Patients: External Validation of the ARDSNet Prediction Model

    PubMed Central

    Damluji, Abdulla; Colantuoni, Elizabeth; Mendez-Tellez, Pedro A.; Sevransky, Jonathan E.; Fan, Eddy; Shanholtz, Carl; Wojnar, Margaret; Pronovost, Peter J.; Needham, Dale M.

    2011-01-01

    Objective An independent cohort of acute lung injury (ALI) patients was used to evaluate the external validity of a simple prediction model for short-term mortality previously developed using data from ARDS Network (ARDSNet) trials. Design, Setting, and Patients Data for external validation were obtained from a prospective cohort study of ALI patients from 13 ICUs at four teaching hospitals in Baltimore, Maryland. Measurements and Main Results Of the 508 non-trauma, ALI patients eligible for this analysis, 234 (46%) died in-hospital. Discrimination of the ARDSNet prediction model for inhospital mortality, evaluated by the area under the receiver operator characteristics curves (AUC), was 0.67 for our external validation dataset versus 0.70 and 0.68 using APACHE II and the ARDSNet validation dataset, respectively. In evaluating calibration of the model, predicted versus observed in-hospital mortality for the external validation dataset was similar for both low risk (ARDSNet model score = 0) and high risk (score = 3 or 4+) patient strata. However, for intermediate risk (score = 1 or 2) patients, observed in-hospital mortality was substantially higher than predicted mortality (25.3% vs. 16.5% and 40.6% vs. 31.0% for score = 1 and 2, respectively). Sensitivity analyses limiting our external validation data set to only those patients meeting the ARDSNet trial eligibility criteria and to those who received mechanical ventilation in compliance with the ARDSNet ventilation protocol, did not substantially change the model’s discrimination or improve its calibration. Conclusions Evaluation of the ARDSNet prediction model using an external ALI cohort demonstrated similar discrimination of the model as was observed with the ARDSNet validation dataset. However, there were substantial differences in observed versus predicted mortality among intermediate risk ALI patients. The ARDSNet model provided reasonable, but imprecise, estimates of predicted mortality when applied to our

  8. Multi-scale predictions of coniferous forest mortality in the northern hemisphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDowell, N. G.

    2015-12-01

    Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our incomplete understanding of the fundamental physiological thresholds of vegetation mortality during drought limits our ability to accurately simulate future vegetation distributions and associated climate feedbacks. Here we integrate experimental evidence with models to show potential widespread loss of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET; ~ conifers) within the Southwest USA by 2100; with rising temperature being the primary cause of mortality. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ypd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, stomatal and hydraulic conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. Empirical and mechanistic models accurately predicted NET Ypd, and 91% of predictions (10/11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the 21st century due to temperature rise. Completely independent global models predicted >50% loss of northern hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the findings for Southwest USA. The global models disagreed with the ecosystem process models in regards to future mortality in Southwest USA, however, highlighting the potential underestimates of future NET mortality as simulated by the global models and signifying the importance of improving regional predictions. Taken together, these results from the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict global-scale conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

  9. Predicting Mortality in Patients with Diabetes Starting Dialysis

    PubMed Central

    Dekkers, Olaf M.; Rotmans, Joris I.; Krediet, Raymond T.; Boeschoten, Elisabeth W.; Dekker, Friedo W.

    2014-01-01

    Background While some prediction models have been developed for diabetic populations, prediction rules for mortality in diabetic dialysis patients are still lacking. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify predictors for 1-year mortality in diabetic dialysis patients and use these results to develop a prediction model. Methods Data were used from the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis (NECOSAD), a multicenter, prospective cohort study in which incident patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD) were monitored until transplantation or death. For the present analysis, patients with DM at baseline were included. A prediction algorithm for 1-year all-cause mortality was developed through multivariate logistic regression. Candidate predictors were selected based on literature and clinical expertise. The final model was constructed through backward selection. The model's predictive performance, measured by calibration and discrimination, was assessed and internally validated through bootstrapping. Results A total of 394 patients were available for statistical analysis; 82 (21%) patients died within one year after baseline (3 months after starting dialysis therapy). The final prediction model contained seven predictors; age, smoking, history of macrovascular complications, duration of diabetes mellitus, Karnofsky scale, serum albumin and hemoglobin level. Predictive performance was good, as shown by the c-statistic of 0.810. Internal validation showed a slightly lower, but still adequate performance. Sensitivity analyses showed stability of results. Conclusions A prediction model containing seven predictors has been identified in order to predict 1-year mortality for diabetic incident dialysis patients. Predictive performance of the model was good. Before implementing the model in clinical practice, for example for counseling patients regarding their prognosis, external validation is necessary. PMID:24594735

  10. Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDowell, N. G.; Williams, A. P.; Xu, C.; Pockman, W. T.; Dickman, L. T.; Sevanto, S.; Pangle, R.; Limousin, J.; Plaut, J.; Mackay, D. S.; Ogee, J.; Domec, J. C.; Allen, C. D.; Fisher, R. A.; Jiang, X.; Muss, J. D.; Breshears, D. D.; Rauscher, S. A.; Koven, C.

    2016-03-01

    Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted >=50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

  11. Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McDowell, Nathan G.; Williams, A.P.; Xu, C.; Pockman, W. T.; Dickman, L. T.; Sevanto, S.; Pangle, R.; Limousin, J.; Plaut, J.J.; Mackay, D.S.; Ogee, J.; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Allen, Craig D.; Fisher, Rosie A.; Jiang, X.; Muss, J.D.; Breshears, D.D.; Rauscher, Sara A.; Koven, C.

    2015-01-01

    Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April–August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted ≥50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

  12. Hyperuricemia Is an Independent Predictor of Contrast-Induced Acute Kidney Injury and Mortality in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

    PubMed

    Guo, Wei; Liu, Yong; Chen, Ji-Yan; Chen, Shi-Qun; Li, Hua-Long; Duan, Chong-Yang; Liu, Yuan-Hui; Tan, Ning

    2015-09-01

    We investigated whether hyperuricemia is an independent predictor of contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI) and mortality in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). In a single-center study of 1772 patients undergoing PCI, the development of CI-AKI and mortality during a 2.8-year median follow-up period was assessed. The incidence of CI-AKI was significantly higher in the hyperuricemic group than in the normouricemic group (5.78% vs 1.76%, P < .001). According to multivariate analysis (after adjusting for potential confounding factors), hyperuricemia predicted CI-AKI (odds ratio: 1.962; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.014-3.798; P = .045). The other risk factors for CI-AKI were >75 years, emergent PCI, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and anemia. Hyperuricemia with a tendency toward significantly independently predicted long-term mortality, after adjusting for CI-AKI, CKD, and emergent PCI (hazard ratio: 1.571; 95% CI: 1.006-2.452; P = .047). In patients undergoing PCI, hyperuricemia is associated with a risk of CI-AKI. Furthermore, after adjusting for other variables, including CI-AKI and CKD, long-term mortality after PCI was higher in those with hyperuricemia than with normouricemia.

  13. Frailty predicts waitlist mortality in liver transplant candidates.

    PubMed

    Lai, J C; Feng, S; Terrault, N A; Lizaola, B; Hayssen, H; Covinsky, K

    2014-08-01

    We aimed to determine whether frailty, a validated geriatric construct of increased vulnerability to physiologic stressors, predicts mortality in liver transplant candidates. Consecutive adult outpatients listed for liver transplant with laboratory Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) ≥ 12 at a single center (97% recruitment rate) underwent four frailty assessments: Fried Frailty, Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and Instrumental ADL (IADL) scales. Competing risks models associated frailty with waitlist mortality (death/delisting for being too sick for liver transplant). Two hundred ninety-four listed liver transplant patients with MELD ≥ 12, median age 60 years and MELD 15 were followed for 12 months. By Fried Frailty score ≥3, 17% were frail; 11/51 (22%) of the frail versus 25/243 (10%) of the not frail died/were delisted (p = 0.03). Each 1-unit increase in the Fried Frailty score was associated with a 45% (95% confidence interval, 4-202) increased risk of waitlist mortality adjusted for MELD. Similarly, the adjusted risk of waitlist mortality associated with each 1-unit decrease (i.e. increasing frailty) in the Short Physical Performance Battery (hazard ratio 1.19, 95% confidence interval 1.07-1.32). Frailty is prevalent in liver transplant candidates. It strongly predicts waitlist mortality, even after adjustment for liver disease severity demonstrating the applicability and importance of the frailty construct in this population.

  14. Syndecan-4 Is an Independent Predictor of All-Cause as Well as Cardiovascular Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Jaroszyński, Andrzej J.; Jaroszyńska, Anna; Przywara, Stanisław; Zaborowski, Tomasz; Książek, Andrzej; Dąbrowski, Wojciech

    2016-01-01

    Background Left ventricular hypertrophy is associated withincreased mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients.Syndecan-4 plays a role in many processes that are involved in the heart fibrosis and hypertrophy.We designed this study to prospectively determine whether syndecan-4 was predictive of mortality in a group of HD patients. Methods In total, 191 HD patients were included. Clinical, biochemical and echocardiographic parameters were recorded. HD patients were followed-up for 23.18 ± 4.02 months. Results Syndecan-4 levels correlated strongly with geometrical echocardiographic parameters and ejection fraction. Relations with pressure-related parameters were weak and only marginally significant. Using the receiver operating characteristics the optimal cut-off points in predicting all-cause as well as cardiovascular (CV) mortality were evaluated and patients were divided into low and high syndecan-4 groups. A Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the cumulative incidences of all-cause as well as CV mortality were higher in high serum syndecan-4 group compared with those with low serum syndecan-4 (p<0.001 in both cases).A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis revealed syndecan-4 concentration to be an independent and significant predictor of all-cause (hazard ratio, 2.99; confidence interval, 2.34 to 3.113; p<0.001)as well as CV mortality (hazard ratio, 2.81;confidence interval, 2.28to3.02; p<0.001). Conclusions Serum syndecan-4 concentration reflects predominantly geometrical echocardiographic parameters. In HD patients serum syndecan-4 concentration is independently associated with all-cause as well as CV mortality. PMID:27685148

  15. Predicting Mortality in Low-Income Country ICUs: The Rwanda Mortality Probability Model (R-MPM)

    PubMed Central

    Kiviri, Willy; Fowler, Robert A.; Mueller, Ariel; Novack, Victor; Banner-Goodspeed, Valerie M.; Weinkauf, Julia L.; Talmor, Daniel S.; Twagirumugabe, Theogene

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Intensive Care Unit (ICU) risk prediction models are used to compare outcomes for quality improvement initiatives, benchmarking, and research. While such models provide robust tools in high-income countries, an ICU risk prediction model has not been validated in a low-income country where ICU population characteristics are different from those in high-income countries, and where laboratory-based patient data are often unavailable. We sought to validate the Mortality Probability Admission Model, version III (MPM0-III) in two public ICUs in Rwanda and to develop a new Rwanda Mortality Probability Model (R-MPM) for use in low-income countries. Methods We prospectively collected data on all adult patients admitted to Rwanda’s two public ICUs between August 19, 2013 and October 6, 2014. We described demographic and presenting characteristics and outcomes. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the MPM0-III model. Using stepwise selection, we developed a new logistic model for risk prediction, the R-MPM, and used bootstrapping techniques to test for optimism in the model. Results Among 427 consecutive adults, the median age was 34 (IQR 25–47) years and mortality was 48.7%. Mechanical ventilation was initiated for 85.3%, and 41.9% received vasopressors. The MPM0-III predicted mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 and Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistic p = 0.024. We developed a new model using five variables: age, suspected or confirmed infection within 24 hours of ICU admission, hypotension or shock as a reason for ICU admission, Glasgow Coma Scale score at ICU admission, and heart rate at ICU admission. Using these five variables, the R-MPM predicted outcomes with area under the ROC curve of 0.81 with 95% confidence interval of (0.77, 0.86), and Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistic p = 0.154. Conclusions The MPM0-III has modest ability to predict mortality in a population of Rwandan ICU patients. The R

  16. Predicting exposure-response associations of ambient particulate matter with mortality in 73 Chinese cities.

    PubMed

    Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Chen, Renjie; Kan, Haidong; Tong, Shilu

    2016-01-01

    Estimating the burden of mortality associated with particulates requires knowledge of exposure-response associations. However, the evidence on exposure-response associations is limited in many cities, especially in developing countries. In this study, we predicted associations of particulates smaller than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) with mortality in 73 Chinese cities. The meta-regression model was used to test and quantify which city-specific characteristics contributed significantly to the heterogeneity of PM10-mortality associations for 16 Chinese cities. Then, those city-specific characteristics with statistically significant regression coefficients were treated as independent variables to build multivariate meta-regression models. The model with the best fitness was used to predict PM10-mortality associations in 73 Chinese cities in 2010. Mean temperature, PM10 concentration and green space per capita could best explain the heterogeneity in PM10-mortality associations. Based on city-specific characteristics, we were able to develop multivariate meta-regression models to predict associations between air pollutants and health outcomes reasonably well.

  17. Predicting exposure-response associations of ambient particulate matter with mortality in 73 Chinese cities.

    PubMed

    Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Chen, Renjie; Kan, Haidong; Tong, Shilu

    2016-01-01

    Estimating the burden of mortality associated with particulates requires knowledge of exposure-response associations. However, the evidence on exposure-response associations is limited in many cities, especially in developing countries. In this study, we predicted associations of particulates smaller than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) with mortality in 73 Chinese cities. The meta-regression model was used to test and quantify which city-specific characteristics contributed significantly to the heterogeneity of PM10-mortality associations for 16 Chinese cities. Then, those city-specific characteristics with statistically significant regression coefficients were treated as independent variables to build multivariate meta-regression models. The model with the best fitness was used to predict PM10-mortality associations in 73 Chinese cities in 2010. Mean temperature, PM10 concentration and green space per capita could best explain the heterogeneity in PM10-mortality associations. Based on city-specific characteristics, we were able to develop multivariate meta-regression models to predict associations between air pollutants and health outcomes reasonably well. PMID:26452312

  18. How high is infant mortality in central and eastern Europe and the commonwealth of independent states?

    PubMed

    Aleshina, Nadezhda; Redmond, Gerry

    2005-03-01

    This paper examines the measurement of infant mortality in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). There are worrying indications that official infant mortality counts, based on administrative data, may understate the true gravity of the problem in 15 countries in the region, including 11 out of 12 CIS countries, and 4 countries in South Eastern Europe. In the case of eight CIS countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia plus Romania, the evidence is strongest, not least because surveys that allow independent estimation of infant mortality have been carried out there. In the case of the remaining six countries, the evidence is more circumstantial, and based on inconsistencies within the official data themselves, combined with information on how live births are defined. However, we find also that surveys are rather blunt instruments, and that the confidence intervals that surround estimates from these surveys are often large. PMID:15764133

  19. Higher Energy Expenditure in Humans Predicts Natural Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Hanson, Robert L.; Sievers, Maurice L.; Bennett, Peter H.; Nelson, Robert G.; Krakoff, Jonathan

    2011-01-01

    Context: Higher metabolic rates increase free radical formation, which may accelerate aging and lead to early mortality. Objective: Our objective was to determine whether higher metabolic rates measured by two different methods predict early natural mortality in humans. Design: Nondiabetic healthy Pima Indian volunteers (n = 652) were admitted to an inpatient unit for approximately 7 d as part of a longitudinal study of obesity and diabetes risk factors. Vital status of study participants was determined through December 31, 2006. Twenty-four-hour energy expenditure (24EE) was measured in 508 individuals, resting metabolic rate (RMR) was measured in 384 individuals, and 240 underwent both measurements on separate days. Data for 24EE were collected in a respiratory chamber between 1985 and 2006 with a mean (sd) follow-up time of 11.1 (6.5) yr and for RMR using an open-circuit respiratory hood system between 1982 and 2006 with a mean follow-up time of 15.4 (6.3) yr. Cox regression models were used to test the effect of EE on natural mortality, controlled for age, sex, and body weight. Results: In both groups, 27 natural deaths occurred during the study period. For each 100-kcal/24 h increase in EE, the risk of natural mortality increased by 1.29 (95% confidence interval = 1.00–1.66; P < 0.05) in the 24EE group and by 1.25 (95% confidence interval = 1.01–1.55; P < 0.05) in the RMR group, after adjustment for age, sex, and body weight in proportional hazard analyses. Conclusions: Higher metabolic rates as reflected by 24EE or RMR predict early natural mortality, indicating that higher energy turnover may accelerate aging in humans. PMID:21450984

  20. Coefficient of glucose variation is independently associated with mortality in critically ill patients receiving intravenous insulin

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Both patient- and context-specific factors may explain the conflicting evidence regarding glucose control in critically ill patients. Blood glucose variability appears to correlate with mortality, but this variability may be an indicator of disease severity, rather than an independent predictor of mortality. We assessed blood glucose coefficient of variation as an independent predictor of mortality in the critically ill. Methods We used eProtocol-Insulin, an electronic protocol for managing intravenous insulin with explicit rules, high clinician compliance, and reproducibility. We studied critically ill patients from eight hospitals, excluding patients with diabetic ketoacidosis and patients supported with eProtocol-insulin for < 24 hours or with < 10 glucose measurements. Our primary clinical outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. We performed multivariable logistic regression, with covariates of age, gender, glucose coefficient of variation (standard deviation/mean), Charlson comorbidity score, acute physiology score, presence of diabetes, and occurrence of hypoglycemia < 60 mg/dL. Results We studied 6101 critically ill adults. Coefficient of variation was independently associated with 30-day mortality (odds ratio 1.23 for every 10% increase, P < 0.001), even after adjustment for hypoglycemia, age, disease severity, and comorbidities. The association was higher in non-diabetics (OR = 1.37, P < 0.001) than in diabetics (OR 1.15, P = 0.001). Conclusions Blood glucose variability is associated with mortality and is independent of hypoglycemia, disease severity, and comorbidities. Future studies should evaluate blood glucose variability. PMID:24886864

  1. Postdischarge mortality in children with acute infectious diseases: derivation of postdischarge mortality prediction models

    PubMed Central

    Wiens, M O; Kumbakumba, E; Larson, C P; Ansermino, J M; Singer, J; Kissoon, N; Wong, H; Ndamira, A; Kabakyenga, J; Kiwanuka, J; Zhou, G

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To derive a model of paediatric postdischarge mortality following acute infectious illness. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting 2 hospitals in South-western Uganda. Participants 1307 children of 6 months to 5 years of age were admitted with a proven or suspected infection. 1242 children were discharged alive and followed up 6 months following discharge. The 6-month follow-up rate was 98.3%. Interventions None. Primary and secondary outcome measures The primary outcome was postdischarge mortality within 6 months following the initial hospital discharge. Results 64 children died during admission (5.0%) and 61 died within 6 months of discharge (4.9%). Of those who died following discharge, 31 (51%) occurred within the first 30 days. The final adjusted model for the prediction of postdischarge mortality included the variables mid-upper arm circumference (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.94 to 0.97, per 1 mm increase), time since last hospitalisation (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.93, for each increased period of no hospitalisation), oxygen saturation (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.93 to 0·99, per 1% increase), abnormal Blantyre Coma Scale score (OR 2.39, 95% CI 1·18 to 4.83), and HIV-positive status (OR 2.98, 95% CI 1.36 to 6.53). This model produced a receiver operating characteristic curve with an area under the curve of 0.82. With sensitivity of 80%, our model had a specificity of 66%. Approximately 35% of children would be identified as high risk (11.1% mortality risk) and the remaining would be classified as low risk (1.4% mortality risk), in a similar cohort. Conclusions Mortality following discharge is a poorly recognised contributor to child mortality. Identification of at-risk children is critical in developing postdischarge interventions. A simple prediction tool that uses 5 easily collected variables can be used to identify children at high risk of death after discharge. Improved discharge planning and care could be provided for high-risk children. PMID

  2. Prediction of the mortality dose-response relationship in man

    SciTech Connect

    Morris, M.D.; Jones, T.D.

    1987-01-01

    Based upon an extensive data base including 100 separate animal studies, an estimate of the mortality dose-response relationship due to continuous photon radiation is predicted for 70 kg man. The model used in this prediction exercise includes fixed terms accounting for effects of body weight and dose rate, and random terms accounting for inter- and intra-species variation and experimental error. Point predictions and 95% prediction intervals are given for the LD/sub 05/, LD/sub 10/, LD/sub 25/, LD/sub 50/, LD/sub 75/, LD/sub 90/, and LD/sub 95/, for dose rates ranging from 1 to 50 R/min. 6 refs., 5 tabs.

  3. Sleep Apnea as an Independent Risk Factor for All-Cause Mortality: The Busselton Health Study

    PubMed Central

    Marshall, Nathaniel S.; Wong, Keith K. H.; Liu, Peter Y.; Cullen, Stewart R. J.; Knuiman, Matthew W.; Grunstein, Ronald R.

    2008-01-01

    Background: Previously published cohort studies in clinical populations have suggested that obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a risk factor for mortality associated with cardiovascular disease. However, it is unknown whether sleep apnea is an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality in a community-based sample free from clinical referral bias. Methods: Residents of the Western Australian town of Busselton underwent investigation with a home sleep apnea monitoring device (MESAM IV). OSA was quantified via the respiratory disturbance index (RDI). Mortality status was determined in 397/400 participants (99.3%) after up to 14 years (mean follow-up 13.4 years) by data matching with the Australian National Death Index and the Western Australian Death Register. Univariate analyses and multivariate Cox proportional hazards modelling were used to ascertain the association between sleep apnea and mortality after adjustment for age, gender, body mass index, mean arterial pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes, and medically diagnosed angina in those free from heart attack or stroke at baseline (n = 380). Results: Among the 380 participants, 18 had moderate-severe OSA (RDI ≥15/hr, 6 deaths) and 77 had mild OSA (RDI 5 to <15/hr, 5 deaths). Moderate-to-severe OSA was independently associated with greater risk of all-cause mortality (fully adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 6.24, 95% CL 2.01, 19.39) than non-OSA (n = 285, 22 deaths). Mild OSA (RDI 5 to <15/hr) was not an independent risk factor for higher mortality (HR = 0.47, 95% CL 0.17, 1.29). Conclusions: Moderate-to-severe sleep apnea is independently associated with a large increased risk of all-cause mortality in this community-based sample. Citation: Marshall NS; Wong KKH; Liu PY; Cullen SRJ; Knuiman MW; Grunstein RR. Sleep apnea as an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality: The Busselton Health Study. SLEEP 2008;31(8):1079-1085. PMID:18714779

  4. Early coagulopathy is an independent predictor of mortality in children after severe trauma.

    PubMed

    Whittaker, Brent; Christiaans, Sarah C; Altice, Jessica L; Chen, Mike K; Bartolucci, Alfred A; Morgan, Charity J; Kerby, Jeffrey D; Pittet, Jean-François

    2013-05-01

    To determine whether early coagulopathy affects the mortality associated with severe civilian pediatric trauma, trauma patients younger than 18 years admitted to a pediatric intensive care unit from 2001 to 2010 were evaluated. Patients with burns, primary asphyxiation, preexisting bleeding diathesis, lack of coagulation studies, or transferred from other hospitals more than 24 h after injury were excluded. Age, sex, race, mechanism of injury, initial systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale score, Injury Severity Score, prothrombin time, partial thromboplastin time, platelet count, and international normalized ratio were recorded. An arterial or venous blood gas was performed, if clinically indicated. Coagulopathy was defined as an international normalized ratio greater than 1.2. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were lengths of intensive care unit and hospital stay. Eight hundred three patients were included in the study. Overall mortality was 13.4%. The incidence of age-adjusted hypotension was 5.4%. Early coagulopathy was observed in 37.9% of patients. High Injury Severity Score and/or hypotension were associated with early coagulopathy and higher mortality. Early coagulopathy was associated with a modest increase in mortality in pediatric trauma patients without traumatic brain injury (TBI). In contrast, the combination of TBI and early coagulopathy was associated with a fourfold increase in mortality in this patient population. Early coagulopathy is an independent predictor of mortality in civilian pediatric patients with severe trauma. The increase in mortality was particularly significant in patients with TBI either isolated or combined with other injuries, suggesting that a rapid correction of this coagulopathy could substantially decrease the mortality after TBI in pediatric trauma patients. PMID:23591559

  5. High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein Predicts Mortality and Technique Failure in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Shou-Hsuan; Li, Yi-Jung; Wu, Hsin-Hsu; Lee, Cheng-Chia; Lin, Chan-Yu; Weng, Cheng-Hao; Chen, Yung-Chang; Chang, Ming-Yang; Hsu, Hsiang-Hao; Fang, Ji-Tseng; Hung, Cheng-Chieh; Yang, Chih-Wei; Tian, Ya-Chung

    2014-01-01

    Introduction An elevated level of serum C-reactive protein (CRP) is widely considered an indicator of an underlying inflammatory disease and a long-term prognostic predictor for dialysis patients. This cross-sectional cohort study was designed to assess the correlation between the level of high-sensitivity CRP (HS-CRP) and the outcome of peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Methods A total of 402 patients were stratified into 3 tertiles (lower, middle, upper) according to serum HS-CRP level and and followed up from October 2009 to September 2011. During follow-up, cardiovascular events, infection episodes, technique failure, and mortality rate were recorded. Results During the 24-month follow-up, 119 of 402 patients (29.6%) dropped out from PD, including 28 patients (7.0%) who died, 81 patients (20.1%) who switched to hemodialysis, and 10 patients (2.5%) who underwent kidney transplantation. The results of Kaplan–Meier analysis and log-rank test demonstrated a significant difference in the cumulative patient survival rate across the 3 tertiles (the lowest rate in upper tertile). On multivariate Cox regression analysis, only higher HS-CRP level, older age, the presence of diabetes mellitus (DM), lower serum albumin level, and the occurrence of cardiovascular events during follow-up were identified as independent predictors of mortality. Every 1 mg/L increase in HS-CRP level was independently predictive of a 1.4% increase in mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analysis also showed that higher HS-CRP level, the presence of DM, lower hemoglobin level, lower serum albumin level, higher dialysate/plasma creatinine ratio, and the occurrence of infective episodes and cardiovascular events during follow-up were independent predictors of technique failure. Conclusions The present study shows the importance of HS-CRP in the prediction of 2-year mortality and technique survival in PD patients independent of age, diabetes, hypoalbuminemia, and the occurrence of

  6. Life span decrements in fluid intelligence and processing speed predict mortality risk.

    PubMed

    Aichele, Stephen; Rabbitt, Patrick; Ghisletta, Paolo

    2015-09-01

    We examined life span changes in 5 domains of cognitive performance as predictive of mortality risk. Data came from the Manchester Longitudinal Study of Cognition, a 20-plus-year investigation of 6,203 individuals ages 42-97 years. Cognitive domains were general crystallized intelligence, general fluid intelligence, verbal memory, visuospatial memory, and processing speed. Life span decrements were evident across these domains, controlling for baseline performance at age 70 and adjusting for retest effects. Survival analyses stratified by sex and conducted independently by cognitive domain showed that lower baseline performance levels in all domains-and larger life span decrements in general fluid intelligence and processing speed-were predictive of increased mortality risk for both women and men. Critically, analyses of the combined predictive power of cognitive performance variables showed that baseline levels of processing speed (in women) and general fluid intelligence (in men), and decrements in processing speed (in women and in men) and general fluid intelligence (in women), accounted for most of the explained variation in mortality risk. In light of recent evidence from brain-imaging studies, we speculate that cognitive abilities closely linked to cerebral white matter integrity (such as processing speed and general fluid intelligence) may represent particularly sensitive markers of mortality risk. In addition, we presume that greater complexity in cognition-survival associations observed in women (in analyses incorporating all cognitive predictors) may be a consequence of longer and more variable cognitive declines in women relative to men. PMID:26098167

  7. Life span decrements in fluid intelligence and processing speed predict mortality risk.

    PubMed

    Aichele, Stephen; Rabbitt, Patrick; Ghisletta, Paolo

    2015-09-01

    We examined life span changes in 5 domains of cognitive performance as predictive of mortality risk. Data came from the Manchester Longitudinal Study of Cognition, a 20-plus-year investigation of 6,203 individuals ages 42-97 years. Cognitive domains were general crystallized intelligence, general fluid intelligence, verbal memory, visuospatial memory, and processing speed. Life span decrements were evident across these domains, controlling for baseline performance at age 70 and adjusting for retest effects. Survival analyses stratified by sex and conducted independently by cognitive domain showed that lower baseline performance levels in all domains-and larger life span decrements in general fluid intelligence and processing speed-were predictive of increased mortality risk for both women and men. Critically, analyses of the combined predictive power of cognitive performance variables showed that baseline levels of processing speed (in women) and general fluid intelligence (in men), and decrements in processing speed (in women and in men) and general fluid intelligence (in women), accounted for most of the explained variation in mortality risk. In light of recent evidence from brain-imaging studies, we speculate that cognitive abilities closely linked to cerebral white matter integrity (such as processing speed and general fluid intelligence) may represent particularly sensitive markers of mortality risk. In addition, we presume that greater complexity in cognition-survival associations observed in women (in analyses incorporating all cognitive predictors) may be a consequence of longer and more variable cognitive declines in women relative to men.

  8. Using growth velocity to predict child mortality12

    PubMed Central

    Schwinger, Catherine; Van den Broeck, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Background: Growth assessment based on the WHO child growth velocity standards can potentially be used to predict adverse health outcomes. Nevertheless, there are very few studies on growth velocity to predict mortality. Objectives: We aimed to determine the ability of various growth velocity measures to predict child death within 3 mo and to compare it with those of attained growth measures. Design: Data from 5657 children <5 y old who were enrolled in a cohort study in the Democratic Republic of Congo were used. Children were measured up to 6 times in 3-mo intervals, and 246 (4.3%) children died during the study period. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) models informed the mortality risk within 3 mo for weight and length velocity z scores and 3-mo changes in midupper arm circumference (MUAC). We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to present balance in sensitivity and specificity to predict child death. Results: GEE models showed that children had an exponential increase in the risk of dying with decreasing growth velocity in all 4 indexes (1.2- to 2.4-fold for every unit decrease). A length and weight velocity z score of <−3 was associated with an 11.8- and a 7.9-fold increase, respectively, in the RR of death in the subsequent 3-mo period (95% CIs: 3.9, 35.5, and 3.9, 16.2, respectively). Weight and length velocity z scores had better predictive abilities [area under the ROC curves (AUCs) of 0.67 and 0.69] than did weight-for-age (AUC: 0.57) and length-for-age (AUC: 0.52) z scores. Among wasted children (weight-for-height z score <−2), the AUC of weight velocity z scores was 0.87. Absolute MUAC performed best among the attained indexes (AUC: 0.63), but longitudinal assessment of MUAC-based indexes did not increase the predictive value. Conclusion: Although repeated growth measures are slightly more complex to implement, their superiority in mortality-predictive abilities suggests that these could be used more for identifying children at

  9. Elevated neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio predicts mortality in medical inpatients with multiple chronic conditions

    PubMed Central

    Isaac, Vivian; Wu, Chia-Yi; Huang, Chun-Ta; Baune, Bernhard T.; Tseng, Chia-Lin; McLachlan, Craig S.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an easy measurable laboratory marker used to evaluate systemic inflammation. Elevated NLR is associated with poor survival and increased morbidity in cancer and cardiovascular disease. However, the usefulness of NLR to predict morbidity and mortality in a hospital setting for patients with multiple chronic conditions has not been previously examined. In this study, we investigate the association between NLR and mortality in multimorbid medical inpatients. Two hundred thirty medical in-patients with chronic conditions were selected from a single academic medical center in Taiwan. Retrospective NLRs were calculated from routine full blood counts previously obtained during the initial hospital admission and at the time of discharge. Self-rated health (using a single-item question), medical disorders, depressive symptoms, and medical service utilization over a 1-year period were included in the analyses. Mortality outcomes were ascertained by reviewing electronic medical records and follow-up. The mortality rate at 2-year follow-up was 23%. Depression (odds ratio [OR] 1.9 [95% CI 1.0–3.7]), poor self-rated health (OR 2.1 [95% CI 1.1–3.9]), being hospitalized 2 or more times in the previous year (OR 2.3 [95% CI 1.2–4.6]), metastatic cancer (OR 4.7 [95% CI 2.3–9.7]), and chronic liver disease (OR 4.3 [95% CI 1.5–12.1]) were associated with 2-year mortality. The median (interquartile range) NLR at admission and discharge were 4.47 (2.4–8.7) and 3.65 (2.1–6.5), respectively. Two-year mortality rates were higher in patients with an elevated NLR at admission (NLR <3 = 15.5%, NLR >3 = 27.6%) and discharge (NLR < 3 = 14.7%, NLR >3 = 29.1%). Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that an elevated NLR >3.0 at admission (OR 2.3 [95% CI 1.0–5.2]) and discharge (OR 2.3 [95% CI 1.1–5.0]) were associated with mortality independent of baseline age, sex, education, metastatic cancer, liver disease

  10. Elevated neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio predicts mortality in medical inpatients with multiple chronic conditions.

    PubMed

    Isaac, Vivian; Wu, Chia-Yi; Huang, Chun-Ta; Baune, Bernhard T; Tseng, Chia-Lin; McLachlan, Craig S

    2016-06-01

    Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an easy measurable laboratory marker used to evaluate systemic inflammation. Elevated NLR is associated with poor survival and increased morbidity in cancer and cardiovascular disease. However, the usefulness of NLR to predict morbidity and mortality in a hospital setting for patients with multiple chronic conditions has not been previously examined. In this study, we investigate the association between NLR and mortality in multimorbid medical inpatients. Two hundred thirty medical in-patients with chronic conditions were selected from a single academic medical center in Taiwan. Retrospective NLRs were calculated from routine full blood counts previously obtained during the initial hospital admission and at the time of discharge. Self-rated health (using a single-item question), medical disorders, depressive symptoms, and medical service utilization over a 1-year period were included in the analyses. Mortality outcomes were ascertained by reviewing electronic medical records and follow-up. The mortality rate at 2-year follow-up was 23%. Depression (odds ratio [OR] 1.9 [95% CI 1.0-3.7]), poor self-rated health (OR 2.1 [95% CI 1.1-3.9]), being hospitalized 2 or more times in the previous year (OR 2.3 [95% CI 1.2-4.6]), metastatic cancer (OR 4.7 [95% CI 2.3-9.7]), and chronic liver disease (OR 4.3 [95% CI 1.5-12.1]) were associated with 2-year mortality. The median (interquartile range) NLR at admission and discharge were 4.47 (2.4-8.7) and 3.65 (2.1-6.5), respectively. Two-year mortality rates were higher in patients with an elevated NLR at admission (NLR <3 = 15.5%, NLR >3 = 27.6%) and discharge (NLR < 3 = 14.7%, NLR >3 = 29.1%). Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that an elevated NLR >3.0 at admission (OR 2.3 [95% CI 1.0-5.2]) and discharge (OR 2.3 [95% CI 1.1-5.0]) were associated with mortality independent of baseline age, sex, education, metastatic cancer, liver disease, depression, and previous

  11. Serum Gamma-Glutamyltransferase Levels Predict Mortality in Patients With Peritoneal Dialysis

    PubMed Central

    Park, Woo-Yeong; Kim, Su-Hyun; Kim, Young Ok; Jin, Dong Chan; Song, Ho Chul; Choi, Euy Jin; Kim, Yong Lim; Kim, Yon Su; Kang, Shin Wook; Kim, Nam Ho; Yang, Chul Woo; Kim, Yong Kyun

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Serum gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) level has been considered marker of oxidative stress as well as liver function. Serum GGT level has been reported to be associated with the mortality in hemodialysis patients. However, it is not well established whether serum GGT level is associated with all-cause mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. The aim of this study was to determine the association between serum GGT levels and all-cause mortality in PD patients. PD patients were included from the Clinical Research Center registry for end-stage renal disease cohort, a multicenter prospective observational cohort study in Korea. Patients were categorized into 3 groups by tertile of serum GGT levels as follows: tertile 1, GGT < 16 IU/L; tertile 2, GGT = 16 to 27 IU/L; and tertile 3, GGT > 27 IU/L. Primary outcome was all-cause mortality. A total of 820 PD patients were included. The median follow-up period was 34 months. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the all-cause mortality rate was significantly different according to tertiles of GGT (P = 0.001, log-rank). The multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that higher tertiles significantly associated with higher risk for all-cause mortality (tertile 2: hazard ratio [HR] 2.08, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17–3.72, P = 0.013; tertile 3: HR 1.83, 95% CI, 1.04–3.22, P = 0.035) in using tertile 1 as the reference group after adjusting for clinical variables. Our study demonstrated that high serum GGT levels were an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality in PD patients. Our findings suggest that serum GGT levels might be a useful biomarker to predict all-cause mortality in PD patients. PMID:26252286

  12. Lower serum uric acid level predicts mortality in dialysis patients

    PubMed Central

    Bae, Eunjin; Cho, Hyun-Jeong; Shin, Nara; Kim, Sun Moon; Yang, Seung Hee; Kim, Dong Ki; Kim, Yong-Lim; Kang, Shin-Wook; Yang, Chul Woo; Kim, Nam Ho; Kim, Yon Su; Lee, Hajeong

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We evaluated the impact of serum uric acid (SUA) on mortality in patients with chronic dialysis. A total of 4132 adult patients on dialysis were enrolled prospectively between August 2008 and September 2014. Among them, we included 1738 patients who maintained dialysis for at least 3 months and had available SUA in the database. We categorized the time averaged-SUA (TA-SUA) into 5 groups: <5.5, 5.5–6.4, 6.5–7.4, 7.5–8.4, and ≥8.5 mg/dL. Cox regression analysis was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality according to SUA group. The mean TA-SUA level was slightly higher in men than in women. Patients with lower TA-SUA level tended to have lower body mass index (BMI), phosphorus, serum albumin level, higher proportion of diabetes mellitus (DM), and higher proportion of malnourishment on the subjective global assessment (SGA). During a median follow-up of 43.9 months, 206 patients died. Patients with the highest SUA had a similar risk to the middle 3 TA-SUA groups, but the lowest TA-SUA group had a significantly elevated HR for mortality. The lowest TA-SUA group was significantly associated with increased all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.720; 95% confidence interval, 1.007–2.937; P = 0.047) even after adjusting for demographic, comorbid, nutritional covariables, and medication use that could affect SUA levels. This association was prominent in patients with well nourishment on the SGA, a preserved serum albumin level, a higher BMI, and concomitant DM although these parameters had no significant interaction in the TA-SUA-mortality relationship except DM. In conclusion, a lower TA-SUA level <5.5 mg/dL predicted all-cause mortality in patients with chronic dialysis. PMID:27310949

  13. Increased dietary sodium is independently associated with greater mortality among prevalent hemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Mc Causland, Finnian R; Waikar, Sushrut S; Brunelli, Steven M

    2012-07-01

    Dietary sodium is thought to play a major role in the pathogenesis of hypertension, hypervolemia, and mortality in hemodialysis patients; hence, sodium restriction is almost universally recommended. Since the evidence upon which to base these assumptions is limited, we undertook a post-hoc analysis of 1770 patients in the Hemodialysis Study with available dietary, clinical, and laboratory information. Within this cohort, 772 were men, 1113 black, and 786 diabetic, with a mean age of 58 years and a median dietary sodium intake of 2080 mg/day. After case-mix adjustment, linear regression modeling found that higher dietary sodium was associated with a greater ultrafiltration requirement, caloric and protein intake; sodium to calorie intake ratio was associated with a greater ultrafiltration requirement; and sodium to potassium ratio was associated with higher serum sodium. No indices were associated with the pre-dialysis systolic blood pressure. Cox regression modeling found that higher baseline dietary sodium and the ratio of sodium to calorie or potassium were each independently associated with greater all-cause mortality. No association between a prescribed dietary sodium restriction and mortality were found. Thus, higher reported dietary sodium intake is independently associated with greater mortality among prevalent hemodialysis patients. Randomized trials will be necessary to determine whether dietary sodium restriction improves survival.

  14. Predicting In-Hospital Maternal Mortality in Senegal and Mali

    PubMed Central

    Ndour, Cheikh; Dossou Gbété, Simplice; Bru, Noelle; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Fauconnier, Arnaud; Traoré, Mamadou; Diop, Aliou; Fournier, Pierre; Dumont, Alexandre

    2013-01-01

    Objective We sought to identify predictors of in-hospital maternal mortality among women attending referral hospitals in Mali and Senegal. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional epidemiological survey using data from a cluster randomized controlled trial (QUARITE trial) in 46 referral hospitals in Mali and Senegal, during the pre-intervention period of the trial (from October 1st 2007 to October 1st 2008). We included 89,518 women who delivered in the 46 hospitals during this period. Data were collected on women's characteristics, obstetric complications, and vital status until the hospital discharge. We developed a tree-like classification rule (classification rule) to identify patient subgroups at high risk of maternal in-hospital mortality. Results Our analyses confirm that patients with uterine rupture, hemorrhage or prolonged/obstructed labor, and those who have an emergency ante-partum cesarean delivery have an increased risk of in-hospital mortality, especially if they are referred from another health facility. Twenty relevant patterns, based on fourteen predictors variables, are used to predict in-hospital maternal mortality with 81.41% sensitivity (95% CI = [77.12%–87.70%]) and 81.6% specificity (95% CI = [81.16%–82.02%]). Conclusion The proposed class association rule method will help health care professionals in referral hospitals in Mali and Senegal to identify mothers at high risk of in-hospital death, and can provide scientific evidence on which to base their decisions to manage patients delivering in their health facilities. PMID:23737972

  15. Plasma Lactate Dehydrogenase Levels Predict Mortality in Acute Aortic Syndromes

    PubMed Central

    Morello, Fulvio; Ravetti, Anna; Nazerian, Peiman; Liedl, Giovanni; Veglio, Maria Grazia; Battista, Stefania; Vanni, Simone; Pivetta, Emanuele; Montrucchio, Giuseppe; Mengozzi, Giulio; Rinaldi, Mauro; Moiraghi, Corrado; Lupia, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In acute aortic syndromes (AAS), organ malperfusion represents a key event impacting both on diagnosis and outcome. Increased levels of plasma lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), a biomarker of malperfusion, have been reported in AAS, but the performance of LDH for the diagnosis of AAS and the relation of LDH with outcome in AAS have not been evaluated so far. This was a bi-centric prospective diagnostic accuracy study and a cohort outcome study. From 2008 to 2014, patients from 2 Emergency Departments suspected of having AAS underwent LDH assay at presentation. A final diagnosis was obtained by aortic imaging. Patients diagnosed with AAS were followed-up for in-hospital mortality. One thousand five hundred seventy-eight consecutive patients were clinically eligible, and 999 patients were included in the study. The final diagnosis was AAS in 201 (20.1%) patients. Median LDH was 424 U/L (interquartile range [IQR] 367–557) in patients with AAS and 383 U/L (IQR 331–460) in patients with alternative diagnoses (P < 0.001). Using a cutoff of 450 U/L, the sensitivity of LDH for AAS was 44% (95% confidence interval [CI] 37–51) and the specificity was 73% (95% CI 69–76). Overall in-hospital mortality for AAS was 23.8%. Mortality was 32.6% in patients with LDH ≥ 450 U/L and 16.8% in patients with LDH < 450 U/L (P = 0.006). Following stratification according to LDH quartiles, in-hospital mortality was 12% in the first (lowest) quartile, 18.4% in the second quartile, 23.5% in the third quartile, and 38% in the fourth (highest) quartile (P = 0.01). LDH ≥ 450 U/L was further identified as an independent predictor of death in AAS both in univariate and in stepwise logistic regression analyses (odds ratio 2.28, 95% CI 1.11–4.66; P = 0.025), in addition to well-established risk markers such as advanced age and hypotension. Subgroup analysis showed excess mortality in association with LDH ≥ 450 U/L in elderly, hemodynamically stable

  16. Prediction of mortality after radical cystectomy for bladder cancer by machine learning techniques.

    PubMed

    Wang, Guanjin; Lam, Kin-Man; Deng, Zhaohong; Choi, Kup-Sze

    2015-08-01

    Bladder cancer is a common cancer in genitourinary malignancy. For muscle invasive bladder cancer, surgical removal of the bladder, i.e. radical cystectomy, is in general the definitive treatment which, unfortunately, carries significant morbidities and mortalities. Accurate prediction of the mortality of radical cystectomy is therefore needed. Statistical methods have conventionally been used for this purpose, despite the complex interactions of high-dimensional medical data. Machine learning has emerged as a promising technique for handling high-dimensional data, with increasing application in clinical decision support, e.g. cancer prediction and prognosis. Its ability to reveal the hidden nonlinear interactions and interpretable rules between dependent and independent variables is favorable for constructing models of effective generalization performance. In this paper, seven machine learning methods are utilized to predict the 5-year mortality of radical cystectomy, including back-propagation neural network (BPN), radial basis function (RBFN), extreme learning machine (ELM), regularized ELM (RELM), support vector machine (SVM), naive Bayes (NB) classifier and k-nearest neighbour (KNN), on a clinicopathological dataset of 117 patients of the urology unit of a hospital in Hong Kong. The experimental results indicate that RELM achieved the highest average prediction accuracy of 0.8 at a fast learning speed. The research findings demonstrate the potential of applying machine learning techniques to support clinical decision making.

  17. Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D.

    2015-07-01

    Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

  18. Physical Stress Echocardiography: Prediction of Mortality and Cardiac Events in Patients with Exercise Test showing Ischemia

    PubMed Central

    de Araujo, Ana Carla Pereira; Santos, Bruno F. de Oliveira; Calasans, Flavia Ricci; Pinto, Ibraim M. Francisco; de Oliveira, Daniel Pio; Melo, Luiza Dantas; Andrade, Stephanie Macedo; Tavares, Irlaneide da Silva; Sousa, Antonio Carlos Sobral; Oliveira, Joselina Luzia Menezes

    2014-01-01

    Background Studies have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of physical stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease. However, the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia is limited. Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of physical stress echocardiography in the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. Methods This is a retrospective cohort in which 866 consecutive patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia, and who underwent physical stress echocardiography were studied. Patients were divided into two groups: with physical stress echocardiography negative (G1) or positive (G2) for myocardial ischemia. The endpoints analyzed were all‑cause mortality and major cardiac events, defined as cardiac death and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Results G2 comprised 205 patients (23.7%). During the mean 85.6 ± 15.0-month follow-up, there were 26 deaths, of which six were cardiac deaths, and 25 non-fatal myocardial infarction cases. The independent predictors of mortality were: age, diabetes mellitus, and positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.20 – 6.01; p = 0.016). The independent predictors of major cardiac events were: age, previous coronary artery disease, positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 – 6.53; p = 0.022) and absence of a 10% increase in ejection fraction. All-cause mortality and the incidence of major cardiac events were significantly higher in G2 (p < 0. 001 and p = 0.001, respectively). Conclusion Physical stress echocardiography provides additional prognostic information in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. PMID:25352460

  19. Echocardiographic parameters of right ventricular function predict mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome: a pilot study

    PubMed Central

    Wadia, Subeer K.; Kovach, Julie; Fogg, Louis; Tandon, Rajive

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Right ventricular (RV) dysfunction in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) contributes to increased mortality. Our aim is to identify reproducible transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) parameters of RV dysfunction that can be used to predict outcomes in ARDS. We performed a retrospective single-center cohort pilot study measuring tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE), Tei index, RV-fractional area change (RV-FAC), pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP), and septal shift, reevaluated by an independent blinded cardiologist (JK). Thirty-eight patients were included. Patients were divided on the basis of 30-day survival. Thirty-day mortality was 47%. Survivors were younger than nonsurvivors. Survivors had a higher pH, PaO2∶FiO2 ratio, and TAPSE. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores were lower in survivors. TAPSE has the strongest association with increased 30-day mortality from date of TTE. Accordingly, TAPSE has a strong positive correlation with PaO2∶FiO2 ratios, and Tei index has a strong negative correlation with PaO2∶FiO2 ratios. Septal shift was associated with lower PaO2∶FiO2 ratios. Decrease in TAPSE, increase in Tei index, and septal shift were seen in the severe ARDS group. In multivariate logistic regression models, TAPSE maintained a significant association with mortality independent of age, pH, PaO2∶FiO2 ratios, positive end expiratory pressure, PCO2, serum bicarbonate, plateau pressures, driving pressures, APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA scores. In conclusion, TAPSE and other TTE parameters should be used as novel predictive indicators for RV dysfunction in ARDS. These parameters can be used as surrogate noninvasive RV hemodynamic measurements to be manipulated to improve mortality in patients with ARDS and contributory RV dysfunction. PMID:27252840

  20. Motivated independence? Implicit party identity predicts political judgments among self-proclaimed Independents.

    PubMed

    Hawkins, Carlee Beth; Nosek, Brian A

    2012-11-01

    Reporting an Independent political identity does not guarantee the absence of partisanship. Independents demonstrated considerable variability in relative identification with Republicans versus Democrats as measured by an Implicit Association Test (IAT; M = 0.10, SD = 0.47). To test whether this variation predicted political judgment, participants read a newspaper article describing two competing welfare (Study 1) or special education (Study 2) policies. The authors manipulated which policy was proposed by which party. Among self-proclaimed Independents, those who were implicitly Democratic preferred the liberal welfare plan, and those who were implicitly Republican preferred the conservative welfare plan. Regardless of the policy details, these implicit partisans preferred the policy proposed by "their" party, and this effect occurred more strongly for implicit than explicit plan preference. The authors suggest that implicitly partisan Independents may consciously override some partisan influence when making explicit political judgments, and Independents may identify as such to appear objective even when they are not.

  1. Determining the Independent Risk Factors and Mortality Rate of Nosocomial Infections in Pediatric Patients

    PubMed Central

    Aktar, Fesih; Tekin, Recep; Güneş, Ali; Ülgen, Cevat; Tan, İlhan; Ertuğrul, Sabahattin; Köşker, Muhammet; Balık, Hasan; Karabel, Duran; Yolbaş, Ilyas

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the rate, independent risk factors, and outcomes of healthcare-associated infections in pediatric patients. This study was performed between 2011 and 2014 in pediatric clinic and intensive care unit. 86 patients and 86 control subjects were included in the study. Of 86 patients with nosocomial infections (NIs), there were 100 NIs episodes and 90 culture growths. The median age was 32.0 months. The median duration of hospital stay of the patients was 30.0 days. The most frequent pathogens were Coagulase-negative Staphylococcus, Acinetobacter spp., Klebsiella spp., and Candida spp. Unconsciousness, prolonged hospitalization, transfusion, mechanical ventilation, use of central venous catheter, enteral feeding via a nasogastric tube, urinary catheter, and receiving carbapenems and glycopeptides were found to be significantly higher in NIs patients. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed prolonged hospitalization, neutropenia, and use of central venous catheter and carbapenems as the independent risk factors for NIs. In the univariate analysis, unconsciousness, mechanical ventilation, enteral feeding, use of enteral feeding via a nasogastric tube, H2 receptor blockers, and port and urinary catheter were significantly associated with mortality. In the multiple logistic regression analysis, only mechanical ventilation was found as an independent predictor of mortality in patients with NIs. PMID:26981536

  2. Fatty liver disease: Disparate predictive ability for cardiometabolic risk and all-cause mortality

    PubMed Central

    Onat, Altan; Can, Günay; Kaya, Ayşem; Akbaş, Tuğba; Özpamuk-Karadeniz, Fatma; Şimşek, Barış; Çakır, Hakan; Yüksel, Hüsniye

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To assess the association of a surrogate of fatty liver disease (FLD) with incident type-2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, and all-cause mortality. METHODS: In a prospective population-based study on 1822 middle-aged adults, stratified to gender, we used an algorithm of fatty liver index (FLI) to identify associations with outcomes. An index ≥ 60 indicated the presence of FLD. In Cox regression models, adjusted for age, smoking status, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure, we assessed the predictive value of FLI for incident diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: At a mean 8 year follow-up, 218 and 285 incident cases of diabetes and CHD, respectively, and 193 deaths were recorded. FLD was significantly associated in each gender with blood pressure, total cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, uric acid, and C-reactive protein; weakly with fasting glucose; and inversely with high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and sex hormone-binding globulin. In adjusted Cox models, FLD was (with a 5-fold HR) the major determinant of diabetes development. Analyses further disclosed significant independent prediction of CHD by FLD in combined gender [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.72, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17-2.53] and men (HR = 2.35, 95%CI: 1.25-4.43). Similarly-adjusted models for all-cause mortality proved, however, not to confer risk, except for a tendency in prediabetics and diabetic women. CONCLUSION: A surrogate of FLD conferred significant high risk of diabetes and coronary heart disease, independent of some metabolic syndrome traits. All-cause mortality was not associated with FLD, except likely in the prediabetic state. Such a FLI may reliably be used in epidemiologic studies. PMID:26730168

  3. Dynamic data during hypotensive episode improves mortality predictions among patients with sepsis and hypotension

    PubMed Central

    Mayaud, Louis; Lai, Peggy S.; Clifford, Gari D.; Tarassenko, Lionel; Celi, Leo Anthony G.; Annane, Djillali

    2012-01-01

    Objective To determine if a prediction rule for hospital mortality using dynamic variables in response to treatment of hypotension in patients with sepsis performs better than current models Design Retrospective cohort study Setting All intensive care units at a tertiary care hospital Patients Adult patients admitted to intensive care units between 2001 and 2007 of whom 2,113 met inclusion criteria and had sufficient data Interventions None Measurements and Main Results We developed a prediction algorithm for hospital mortality in patients with sepsis and hypotension requiring medical intervention using data from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II database). We extracted 189 candidate variables, including treatments, physiologic variables and laboratory values collected before, during and after a hypotensive episode. Thirty predictors were identified using a genetic algorithm on a training set (n=1500), and validated with a logistic regression model on an independent validation set (n=613). The final prediction algorithm used included dynamic information and had good discrimination (AUC = 82.0%) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow C statistic = 10.43, p=0.06). This model was compared to APACHE IV using reclassification indices and was found to be superior with a NRI of 0.19 (p<0.001) and an IDI of 0.09 (p<0.001). Conclusions Hospital mortality predictions based on dynamic variables surrounding a hypotensive event is a new approach to predicting prognosis. A model using these variables has good discrimination and calibration, and offers additional predictive prognostic information beyond established ones. PMID:23385106

  4. A simple tool for mortality prediction in burns patients: APACHE III score and FTSA.

    PubMed

    Moore, E C; Pilcher, D V; Bailey, M J; Cleland, H; McNamee, J

    2010-11-01

    Prediction of outcome for patients with major thermal injury is important to inform clinical decision making, alleviate individual suffering and improve hospital resource allocation. Age and burn size are widely accepted as the two largest contributors of mortality amongst burns patients. The APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) III-j score, which incorporates patient age, is also useful for mortality prediction, of intensive care populations. Validation for the burns specific cohort is unclear. A retrospective cohort study was performed on patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) via the Victorian Adult Burns Service (VABS), to compare observed mortality with burns specific markers of illness severity and APACHE III-j score. Our primary aim was to develop a mortality prediction tool for the burns population. Between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2008, 228 patients were admitted to the ICU at The Alfred with acute burns. The mean age was 45.6 years and 81% (n=184) were male. Patients had severe injuries: the average percent TBSA (total body surface area) was 28% (IQR 10-40) and percent FTSA (full thickness surface area) was 18% (IQR 10-25). 86% (n=197) had airway involvement. Overall mortality in the 7-year period was 12% (n=27). Non-survivors were older, had larger and deeper burns, a higher incidence of deliberate self-harm, higher APACHE III-j scores and spent less time in hospital (but similar time in ICU), compared with survivors. Independent risk factors for death were percent FTSA (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05, p=0.01) and APACHE III-j score (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.07, p<0.001). Mortality prediction based on both of these variables in combination was more specific than either individual variable alone (AUROC 0.85, 95% CI 0.79-0.92). Likelihood of death for patients with severe thermal injury can be predicted with accuracy from APACHE III-j score and percent FTSA. Prospective validation of our model on different burn populations

  5. Speckle tracking echocardiography detects uremic cardiomyopathy early and predicts cardiovascular mortality in ESRD.

    PubMed

    Kramann, Rafael; Erpenbeck, Johanna; Schneider, Rebekka K; Röhl, Anna B; Hein, Marc; Brandenburg, Vincent M; van Diepen, Merel; Dekker, Friedo; Marx, Nicolaus; Floege, Jürgen; Becker, Michael; Schlieper, Georg

    2014-10-01

    Cardiovascular mortality is high in ESRD, partly driven by sudden cardiac death and recurrent heart failure due to uremic cardiomyopathy. We investigated whether speckle-tracking echocardiography is superior to routine echocardiography in early detection of uremic cardiomyopathy in animal models and whether it predicts cardiovascular mortality in patients undergoing dialysis. Using speckle-tracking echocardiography in two rat models of uremic cardiomyopathy soon (4-6 weeks) after induction of kidney disease, we observed that global radial and circumferential strain parameters decreased significantly in both models compared with controls, whereas standard echocardiographic readouts, including fractional shortening and cardiac output, remained unchanged. Furthermore, strain parameters showed better correlations with histologic hallmarks of uremic cardiomyopathy. We then assessed echocardiographic and clinical characteristics in 171 dialysis patients. During the 2.5-year follow-up period, ejection fraction and various strain parameters were significant risk factors for cardiovascular mortality (primary end point) in a multivariate Cox model (ejection fraction hazard ratio [HR], 0.97 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.95 to 0.99; P=0.012]; peak global longitudinal strain HR, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.07 to 1.28; P<0.001]; peak systolic and late diastolic longitudinal strain rates HRs, 4.7 [95% CI, 1.23 to 17.64; P=0.023] and 0.25 [95% CI, 0.08 to 0.79; P=0.02], respectively). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed circumferential early diastolic strain rate, among others, as an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality (secondary end point; HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.74; P=0.002). Together, these data support speckle tracking as a postprocessing echocardiographic technique to detect uremic cardiomyopathy and predict cardiovascular mortality in ESRD.

  6. AST to Platelet Ratio Index Predicts Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With Hepatitis B-Related Decompensated Cirrhosis.

    PubMed

    Mao, Weilin; Sun, Qinqin; Fan, Jian; Lin, Sha; Ye, Bo

    2016-03-01

    Aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) has originally been considered as a noninvasive marker for detecting hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B and C. APRI has been used for predicting liver-related mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection or alcoholic liver disease. However, whether APRI could be useful for predicting mortality in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains unevaluated. This study aims to address this knowledge gap. A total of 193 hospitalized chronic HBV-infected patients (cirrhosis, n = 100; noncirrhosis, n = 93) and 88 healthy subjects were retrospectively enrolled. All patients were followed up for 4 months. Mortality that occurred within 90 days of hospital stay was compared among patients with different APRI. APRI predictive value was evaluated by univariate and multivariate regression embedded in a Cox proportional hazards model. APRI varied significantly in our cohort (range, 0.16-10.00). Elevated APRI was associated with increased severity of liver disease and 3-month mortality in hospitalized patients with HBV-related cirrhosis. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that APRI (odds ratio: 1.456, P < 0.001) and the model for end-stage liver disease score (odds ratio: 1.194, P < 0.001) were 2 independent markers for predicting mortality. APRI is a simple marker that may serve as an additional predictor of 3-month mortality in hospitalized patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis.

  7. AST to Platelet Ratio Index Predicts Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With Hepatitis B-Related Decompensated Cirrhosis

    PubMed Central

    Mao, Weilin; Sun, Qinqin; Fan, Jian; Lin, Sha; Ye, Bo

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) has originally been considered as a noninvasive marker for detecting hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B and C. APRI has been used for predicting liver-related mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection or alcoholic liver disease. However, whether APRI could be useful for predicting mortality in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains unevaluated. This study aims to address this knowledge gap. A total of 193 hospitalized chronic HBV-infected patients (cirrhosis, n = 100; noncirrhosis, n = 93) and 88 healthy subjects were retrospectively enrolled. All patients were followed up for 4 months. Mortality that occurred within 90 days of hospital stay was compared among patients with different APRI. APRI predictive value was evaluated by univariate and multivariate regression embedded in a Cox proportional hazards model. APRI varied significantly in our cohort (range, 0.16–10.00). Elevated APRI was associated with increased severity of liver disease and 3-month mortality in hospitalized patients with HBV-related cirrhosis. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that APRI (odds ratio: 1.456, P < 0.001) and the model for end-stage liver disease score (odds ratio: 1.194, P < 0.001) were 2 independent markers for predicting mortality. APRI is a simple marker that may serve as an additional predictor of 3-month mortality in hospitalized patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis. PMID:26945406

  8. Elevated Cell-Free Plasma DNA Level as an Independent Predictor of Mortality in Patients with Severe Traumatic Brain Injury

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues Filho, Edison Moraes; Simon, Daniel; Ikuta, Nilo; Klovan, Caroline; Dannebrock, Fernando Augusto; Oliveira de Oliveira, Carla

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Trauma is the leading cause of death in individuals less than 45 years old worldwide, and up to 50% of trauma fatalities are because of brain injury. Prediction of outcome is one of the major problems associated with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI), and research efforts have focused on the investigation of biomarkers with prognostic value after TBI. Therefore, our aim was to investigate whether cell-free DNA concentrations correlated to short-term primary outcome (survival or death) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores after severe TBI. A total of 188 patients with severe TBI were enrolled in this prospective study; outcome variables comprised survival and neurological assessment using the GCS at intensive care unit (ICU) discharge. Control blood samples were obtained from 25 healthy volunteers. Peripheral venous blood was collected at admission to the ICU. Plasma DNA was measured using a real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay for the β-globin gene. There was correlation between higher DNA levels and both fatal outcome and lower hospital admission GCS scores. Plasma DNA concentrations at the chosen cutoff point (≥171,381 kilogenomes-equivalents/L) predicted mortality with a specificity of 90% and a sensitivity of 43%. Logistic regression analysis showed that elevated plasma DNA levels were independently associated with death (p<0.001). In conclusion, high cell-free DNA concentration was a predictor of short-term mortality after severe TBI. PMID:24827371

  9. Elevated cell-free plasma DNA level as an independent predictor of mortality in patients with severe traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Rodrigues Filho, Edison Moraes; Simon, Daniel; Ikuta, Nilo; Klovan, Caroline; Dannebrock, Fernando Augusto; Oliveira de Oliveira, Carla; Regner, Andrea

    2014-10-01

    Trauma is the leading cause of death in individuals less than 45 years old worldwide, and up to 50% of trauma fatalities are because of brain injury. Prediction of outcome is one of the major problems associated with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI), and research efforts have focused on the investigation of biomarkers with prognostic value after TBI. Therefore, our aim was to investigate whether cell-free DNA concentrations correlated to short-term primary outcome (survival or death) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores after severe TBI. A total of 188 patients with severe TBI were enrolled in this prospective study; outcome variables comprised survival and neurological assessment using the GCS at intensive care unit (ICU) discharge. Control blood samples were obtained from 25 healthy volunteers. Peripheral venous blood was collected at admission to the ICU. Plasma DNA was measured using a real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay for the β-globin gene. There was correlation between higher DNA levels and both fatal outcome and lower hospital admission GCS scores. Plasma DNA concentrations at the chosen cutoff point (≥171,381 kilogenomes-equivalents/L) predicted mortality with a specificity of 90% and a sensitivity of 43%. Logistic regression analysis showed that elevated plasma DNA levels were independently associated with death (p<0.001). In conclusion, high cell-free DNA concentration was a predictor of short-term mortality after severe TBI.

  10. Ecological effects of density-independent mortality: application to cooling-water withdrawals.

    PubMed

    Newbold, Stephen C; Iovanna, Rich

    2007-03-01

    A wide variety of environmental stresses can cause density-independent mortality in species populations. One example is cooling-water withdrawals, which kill or injure many aquatic organisms near power plants and other industrial facilities. In the United States alone, hundreds of facilities withdraw trillions of gallons from inland and coastal waters every year to cool turbines and other manufacturing equipment. A number of detailed, site-specific studies of the effects of such cooling-water withdrawals have been conducted over the last 30 years, but only a few generalizations have been proposed in the peer-reviewed literature. In this paper we use a series of basic theoretical models to investigate the potential effects of density-independent mortality on species populations and ecosystems, with particular focus on the effects of cooling-water withdrawals on fish populations, fisheries, and aquatic communities. Among other results, we show that the effects of cooling-water withdrawals on a species will depend on the magnitude of other co-occurring stressors, environmental variability, the nature of the management regime in the associated fisheries, and the position of the species in the food web. The general models in this paper can provide a starting point for further empirical case studies and some preliminary conceptual guidance for decision makers who must choose between alternative policy options for controlling cooling-water withdrawals. PMID:17489247

  11. Usefulness of impaired chronotropic response to exercise as a predictor of mortality, independent of the severity of coronary artery disease.

    PubMed

    Dresing, T J; Blackstone, E H; Pashkow, F J; Snader, C E; Marwick, T H; Lauer, M S

    2000-09-15

    Chronotropic incompetence, or an attenuated heart rate response to exercise, has been shown to be associated with an adverse outcome. It is not known whether chronotropic incompetence predicts all-cause mortality independent of angiographic severity of coronary artery disease (CAD). Study subjects included consecutive patients who underwent first-time, symptom-limited exercise treadmill testing and coronary angiography within 90 days; no patient was taking beta blockers or had a history of heart failure, valve disease, or prior revascularization. Chronotropic response was measured in 2 ways: (1) failure to reach 85% of the age-predicted maximum heart rate, and (2) a low chronotropic index, a measure of exercise heart rate response that accounts for effects of age, physical fitness, and resting heart rate. Angiographic severity of CAD was assessed using the Duke Prognostic Weight Score, with a score > or = 42 considered to be indicative of severe CAD. Among 384 eligible patients, failure to reach 85% of the age-predicted maximum heart rate occurred in 61 (16%) and a low chronotropic index was noted in 133 (35%). Severe CAD was present in 63 (16%). During 6 years of follow-up there were 56 deaths. Mortality was predicted by failure to reach target heart rate (RR 1.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01 to 3.39, chi-square = 4, p = 0.05), by severe CAD (RR 2.21, 95% CI 1.24 to 3.95, chi-square = 8, p = 0.007), and, most strongly, by a low chronotropic index (RR 2.72, 95% CI 1.60 to 4.61, chi-square = 15, p = 0.0002). In a multivariable model, low chronotropic index remained predictive of death (adjusted RR 2.22, 95% CI 1.29 to 3.82, p = 0.004), whereas severe CAD no longer predicted death (adjusted RR 1.27, 95% CI 0.70 to 2.31, p > 0.4). Thus, chronotropic incompetence is a strong and independent predictor of death, even after accounting for the angiographic severity of CAD.

  12. Rate of Contrast Extravasation on CT Angiography Predicts Hematoma Expansion and Mortality in Primary Intracerebral Hemorrhage

    PubMed Central

    Brouwers, H. Bart; Battey, Thomas W.K.; Musial, Hayley H.; Ciura, Viesha A.; Falcone, Guido J.; Ayres, Alison M.; Vashkevich, Anastasia; Schwab, Kristin; Viswanathan, Anand; Anderson, Christopher D.; Greenberg, Steven M.; Pomerantz, Stuart R.; Ortiz, Claudia J.; Goldstein, Joshua N.; Gonzalez, R. Gilberto; Rosand, Jonathan; Romero, Javier M.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Purpose In primary intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), the presence of contrast extravasation following CT angiography (CTA), termed the ‘spot sign’, predicts hematoma expansion and mortality. Since the biological underpinnings of the spot sign are not fully understood, we investigated whether the rate of contrast extravasation - which may reflect the rate of bleeding - predicts expansion and mortality beyond the simple presence of the spot sign. Methods Consecutive ICH patients with first-pass CTA followed by a 90-second delayed post-contrast CT (delayed CTA) were included. CTAs were reviewed for spot sign presence by two blinded readers. Spot sign volumes on first-pass and delayed CTA and ICH volumes were measured using semi-automated software. Extravasation rates were calculated and tested for association with hematoma expansion and mortality using uni- and multivariable logistic regression. Results 162 patients were included, 48 (30%) of whom had ≥1 spot sign. Median spot sign volume was 0.04mL on first-pass CTA and 0.4mL on delayed CTA. Median extravasation rate was 0.23mL/min overall, and 0.30mL/min among expanders versus 0.07mL/min in non-expanders. Extravasation rates were also significantly higher in patients who died in hospital: 0.27mL/min versus 0.04mL/min. In multivariable analysis, the extravasation rate was independently associated with in-hospital mortality (OR1.09 [95%CI 1.04–1.18], p=0.004), 90-day mortality (OR1.15 [95%CI 1.08–1.27], p=0.0004), and hematoma expansion (OR1.03 [95%CI 1.01–1.08], p=0.047). Conclusions Contrast extravasation rate, or spot sign growth, further refines the ability to predict hematoma expansion and mortality. Our results support the hypothesis that the spot sign directly measures active bleeding in acute ICH. PMID:26243220

  13. Can Photoperiod Predict Mortality in the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic?

    PubMed Central

    Prendergast, Brian J.

    2012-01-01

    Amplitude of the seasonal change in day length increases with distance from the equator, and changes in day length markedly alter immune function in diverse nonhuman animal models of infection. Historical records of mortality data, ambient temperature, population density, geography, and economic indicators from 42 countries during 1918-1920 were analyzed to determine relative contributions toward human mortality during the “Spanish” influenza pandemic of 1918-1920. The data identify a strong negative relation between distance from the equator and mortality during the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic, which, in a multiple regression model, manifested independent of major economic, demographic, and temperature variables. Enhanced survival was evident in populations that experienced a winter nadir day length ≤10 h light/day, relative to those that experienced lower amplitude changes in photoperiod. Numerous reports indicate that exposure to short day lengths, typical of those occurring outside the tropics during winter, yields robust and enduring reductions in the magnitude of cytokine, febrile, and behavioral responses to infection. The present results are preliminary but prompt the conjecture that, if similar mechanisms are operant in humans, then they would be predicted to mitigate symptoms of infection in proportion to an individual's distance from the equator. Although limitations and uncertainties accompany regression-based analyses of historical epidemiological data, latitude, per se, may be an underrecognized factor in mortality during the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic. The author proposes that some proportion of the global variance in morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases may be explained by effects of day length on the innate immune response to infection. PMID:21775293

  14. The predictive value of self assessed general, physical, and mental health on functional decline and mortality in older adults

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Y.

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To examine the extent to which older people's self assessments of general health, physical health, and mental health predict functional decline and mortality.
DESIGN—The study uses population-based secondary data from the US Longitudinal Study of Aging (LSOA).
PARTICIPANTS—A total of 7527 persons aged 70 years or above living in the community.
METHODS—Eight different measures on self reported general, physical, and mental health were used. Change in functional status was measured using a composite index of ADLs and IADLs over a period of six years. Duration of survival was calculated over a period of seven years. Adjusting for age and gender, multiple logistic regression was used in analysing functional decline, and Cox proportional hazard model, for mortality. Then all of the self assessed health measures were incorporated into the final model—controlling for baseline sociodemographic characteristics, functional status, disease/conditions, and use of health and social services—to assess the independent contribution of each measure in predicting future health outcomes.
MAIN RESULTS—Overall, older people's self assessed general, physical, and mental health were predictive of functional decline and mortality. In multivariate analyses, older people who assessed their global health, self care ability, and physical activity less favourably were more likely to experience poor health outcomes. Gender disparity, however, was observed with poor global health affecting functional decline in men only. Self care ability was predictive of functioning in women only, whereas it was predictive of mortality in men only.
CONCLUSIONS—Self assessed global health, as well as, specific dimensions of health act as significant, independent predictors of functioning and mortality in a community dwelling older people.


Keywords: age; self assessed health; functional status; mortality PMID:10715745

  15. [Factors predicting mortality during an outbreak of Legionnaire's disease in the north of France].

    PubMed

    Prevotat, A; Bure, M; Bergoin, C; Tavernier, J-Y; Van Grunderbeeck, N; Yazdanpanah, Y; Lamblin, C

    2008-03-01

    Between November 2003 and January 2004 in the North of France a large outbreak of legionnaire's disease affected 85 patients. The clinical, biological and radiological characteristics of the patients were investigated to determine factors associated with mortality. Two populations were defined and compared: patients who died within 28 days and those who survived. Eighty-five patients were included in this study. The median age was 75 years. The median fever was 39.3 +/- 0.1 degrees. Fifteen patients (17.6%) had at least 3 underlying co-morbidities. Cough, dyspnoea, confusion and diarrhoea were found in respectively 46, 68, 47, and 15% of the patients. The median of urea was 0.7 +/- 0.05 g/L, creatinine 16 +/- 1.5 mg/L, CRP 332 +/- 15 mg/L. On the chest X-ray, lung infiltrates were present in 64% and multilobar in 40%. The overall mortality rate was 21%. In univariate analysis, diabetes mellitus, dyspnoea, urea>0.90 g/l and CRP>350 mg/l were predictive factors of mortality. In multivariate analysis, diabetes mellitus, urea>0.90 g/l, and bilateral infiltrates on chest X ray were retained as independent risk factors for death.

  16. A simple risk stratification model that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality rate in patients with solid-organ cancer

    PubMed Central

    Chou, Wen-Chi; Wang, Frank; Cheng, Yu-Fan; Chen, Miao-Fen; Lu, Chang-Hsien; Wang, Cheng-Hsu; Lin, Yung-Chang; Yeh, Ta-Sen

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to construct a scoring system developed exclusively from the preoperative data that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality in patients with solid cancers. A total of 20,632 patients who had a curative resection for solid-organ cancers between 2007 and 2012 at Chang Gung Memorial Hospital Linkou Medical Center were included in the derivation cohort. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a risk model that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality. Patients were then stratified into four risk groups (low-, intermediate-, high-, and very high-risk) according to the total score (0–43) form mortality risk analysis. An independent cohort of 16,656 patients who underwent curative cancer surgeries at three other hospitals during the same study period (validation cohort) was enrolled to verify the risk model. Age, gender, cancer site, history of previous cancer, tumor stage, Charlson comorbidity index, American Society of Anesthesiologist score, admission type, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status were independently predictive of 1-year postoperative mortality. The 1-year postoperative mortality rates were 0.5%, 3.8%, 14.6%, and 33.8%, respectively, among the four risk groups in the derivation cohort (c-statistic, 0.80), compared with 0.9%, 4.2%, 14.6%, and 32.6%, respectively, in the validation cohort (c-statistic, 0.78). The risk stratification model also demonstrated good discrimination of long-term survival outcome of the four-tier risk groups (P < 0.01 for both cohorts). The risk stratification model not only predicts 1-year postoperative mortality but also differentiates long-term survival outcome between the risk groups. PMID:26311149

  17. A simple risk stratification model that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality rate in patients with solid-organ cancer.

    PubMed

    Chou, Wen-Chi; Wang, Frank; Cheng, Yu-Fan; Chen, Miao-Fen; Lu, Chang-Hsien; Wang, Cheng-Hsu; Lin, Yung-Chang; Yeh, Ta-Sen

    2015-11-01

    This study aimed to construct a scoring system developed exclusively from the preoperative data that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality in patients with solid cancers. A total of 20,632 patients who had a curative resection for solid-organ cancers between 2007 and 2012 at Chang Gung Memorial Hospital Linkou Medical Center were included in the derivation cohort. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a risk model that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality. Patients were then stratified into four risk groups (low-, intermediate-, high-, and very high-risk) according to the total score (0-43) form mortality risk analysis. An independent cohort of 16,656 patients who underwent curative cancer surgeries at three other hospitals during the same study period (validation cohort) was enrolled to verify the risk model. Age, gender, cancer site, history of previous cancer, tumor stage, Charlson comorbidity index, American Society of Anesthesiologist score, admission type, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status were independently predictive of 1-year postoperative mortality. The 1-year postoperative mortality rates were 0.5%, 3.8%, 14.6%, and 33.8%, respectively, among the four risk groups in the derivation cohort (c-statistic, 0.80), compared with 0.9%, 4.2%, 14.6%, and 32.6%, respectively, in the validation cohort (c-statistic, 0.78). The risk stratification model also demonstrated good discrimination of long-term survival outcome of the four-tier risk groups (P < 0.01 for both cohorts). The risk stratification model not only predicts 1-year postoperative mortality but also differentiates long-term survival outcome between the risk groups.

  18. Executive Function [Capacity for Behavioral Self-regulation]and Decline Predicted Mortality in a Longitudinal Study in Southern Colorado

    PubMed Central

    Amirian, E.; Baxter, Judith; Grigsby, Jim; Curran-Everett, Douglas; Hokanson, John E; Bryant, Lucinda L

    2009-01-01

    Objective To assess the relationship between mortality and impairment and decline in a specific executive cognitive function, the capacity for behavioral self-regulation. Study Design & Setting This study examined the association between mortality and baseline and 22-month decline in the capacity for behavioral self-regulation, as measured by the Behavioral Dyscontrol Scale, among 1,293 participants of the San Luis Valley Health and Aging Study (SLVHAS), a population-based longitudinal study. The Behavioral Dyscontrol Scale and a measure of overall mental status, the Mini-Mental State Examination, were administered at baseline and follow-up interviews. Cox regression was used to examine baseline and decline in capacity for behavioral self-regulation as possible predictors of morality. Results Baseline Behavioral Dyscontrol Scale score was predictive of mortality, independent of demographics and comorbidity count (HR=1.07; 95% CI:1.04–1.09). It remained a significant predictor with further adjustment for Mini-Mental State Examination score. Decline in this specific executive cognitive function was associated with mortality after adjustment for covariates and baseline cognitive scores (HR=1.09; 95% CI:1.04–1.13). Conclusion Thus, both baseline capacity for behavioral self-regulation and its decline over time predicted mortality in the SLVHAS cohort. These associations may partly be due to maintaining the ability for self-care. Understanding how specific forms of impairment contribute to mortality may help identify patients who could benefit from early intervention. PMID:19716261

  19. Prediction of Postoperative Mortality in Liver Transplantation in the Era of MELD-Based Liver Allocation: A Multivariate Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Schultze, Daniel; Hillebrand, Norbert; Hinz, Ulf; Büchler, Markus W.; Schemmer, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Background and Aims Liver transplantation is the only curative treatment for end-stage liver disease. While waiting list mortality can be predicted by the MELD-score, reliable scoring systems for the postoperative period do not exist. This study's objective was to identify risk factors that contribute to postoperative mortality. Methods Between December 2006 and March 2011, 429 patients underwent liver transplantation in our department. Risk factors for postoperative mortality in 266 consecutive liver transplantations were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses. Patients who were <18 years, HU-listings, and split-, living related, combined or re-transplantations were excluded from the analysis. The correlation between number of risk factors and mortality was analyzed. Results A labMELD ≥20, female sex, coronary heart disease, donor risk index >1.5 and donor Na+>145 mmol/L were identified to be independent predictive factors for postoperative mortality. With increasing number of these risk-factors, postoperative 90-day and 1-year mortality increased (0–1: 0 and 0%; 2: 2.9 and 17.4%; 3: 5.6 and 16.8%; 4: 22.2 and 33.3%; 5–6: 60.9 and 66.2%). Conclusions In this analysis, a simple score was derived that adequately identified patients at risk after liver transplantation. Opening a discussion on the inclusion of these parameters in the process of organ allocation may be a worthwhile venture. PMID:24905210

  20. Predicting mortality from burns: the need for age-group specific models.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Sandra L; Lawless, MaryBeth; Curri, Terese; Sen, Soman; Greenhalgh, David G; Palmieri, Tina L

    2014-09-01

    Traditional burn mortality models are derived using all age groups. We hypothesized that age variably impacts mortality after burn and that age-specific models for children, adults, and seniors will more accurately predict mortality than an all-ages model. We audited data from the American Burn Association (ABA) National Burn Repository (NBR) from 2000 to 2009 and used mixed effect logistic regression models to assess the influence of age, total body surface area (TBSA) burn, and inhalation injury on mortality. Mortality models were constructed for all ages and age-specific models: children (<18 years), adults (18-60 years), and seniors (>60 years). Model performance was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Main effect and two-way interactions were used to construct age-group specific mortality models. Each age-specific model was compared to the All Ages model. Of 286,293 records 100,051 had complete data. Overall mortality was 4% but varied by age (17% seniors, <1% children). Age, TBSA, and inhalation injury were significant mortality predictors for all models (p<0.05). Differences in predicted mortality between the All Ages model and the age-specific models occurred in children and seniors. In the age-specific pediatric model, predicted mortality decreased with age; inhalation injury had greater effect on mortality than in the All Ages model. In the senior model mortality increased with age. Seniors had greater increase in mortality per 1% increment in burn size and 1 year increase in age than other ages. The predicted mortality in seniors using the senior-specific model was higher than in the All Ages model. "One size fits all" models for predicting burn outcomes do not accurately reflect the outcomes for seniors and children. Age-specific models for children and seniors may be advisable. PMID:24846014

  1. Predicting Mortality from Burn Injuries: The need for age-group specific models

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Sandra L.; Lawless, MaryBeth; Curri, Terese; Sen, Soman; Greenhalgh, David G.; Palmieri, Tina L.

    2014-01-01

    Traditional burn mortality models are derived using all age groups. We hypothesized that age variably impacts mortality after burn and that age-specific models for children, adults, and seniors will more accurately predict mortality than an all-ages model. We audited data from the American Burn Association (ABA) National Burn Repository (NBR) from 2000-2009 and used mixed effect logistic regression models to assess the influence of age, total body surface area (TBSA) burn, and inhalation injury on mortality. Mortality models were constructed for all ages and age-specific models: children (<18 years), adults (18-60 years), and seniors (>60 years). Model performance was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Main effect and two-way interactions were used to construct age-group specific mortality models. Each age-specific model was compared to the All Ages model. Of 286,293 records 100,051 had complete data. Overall mortality was 4% but varied by age (17% seniors, <1% children). Age, TBSA, and inhalation injury were significant mortality predictors for all models (p<0.05). Differences in predicted mortality between the All Ages model and the age-specific models occurred in children and seniors. In the age-specific pediatric model, predicted mortality decreased with age; inhalation injury had greater effect on mortality than in the All Ages model. In the senior model mortality increased with age. Seniors had greater increase in mortality per 1% increment in burn size and 1 year increase in age than other ages. The predicted mortality in seniors using the senior-specific model was higher than in the All Ages model. “One size fits all” models for predicting burn outcomes do not accurately reflect the outcomes for seniors and children. Age-specific models for children and seniors may be advisable. PMID:24846014

  2. Sonoclot coagulation analysis: a useful tool to predict mortality in overt disseminated intravascular coagulation.

    PubMed

    Wan, Peng; Yu, Min; Qian, Min; Tong, Huasheng; Su, Lei

    2016-01-01

    Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) contributes to high mortality. The study was performed to investigate Sonoclot as a potential predictor of 30-day survival in overt DIC. This cohort included 237 consecutive critically ill patients with overt DIC, admitted to a 15-bed multidisciplinary ICU between July 2010 and July 2013. Hemostasis was analyzed with Sonoclot, including activated clotting time (ACT), clot rate, and platelet function, as well as routine clotting test at admission to the critical care center. Sonoclot variables differed in survivors and nonsurvivors. Mean ACT was prolonged (289.9 ± 200.5 vs. 194.8 ± 126.6 s; P < 0.001) and platelet function (1.2 ± 0.9 vs. 1.6 ± 1.2; P = 0.010) was reduced in nonsurvivors. The clot rate was not different. Cox proportional-hazard model showed that ACT and platelet function correlated independently with survival (P < 0.05). Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis suggested that patients with one pathological Sonoclot findings have better outcome (P < 0.05). After ACT and platelet function were introduced, the receiver-operating characteristic area under the curve of model achieved 0.876 (P < 0.05), with a specificity of 82.6% and a sensitivity of 80.5% in prediction of 30-day survival by multivariate analyses. Our data suggest that the Sonoclot can predict mortality in critically ill patients with overt DIC.

  3. Inflammatory Marker but Not Adipokine Predicts Mortality among Long-Term Hemodialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Tsai, Yu-Che; Lee, Chien-Te; Huang, Tiao-Lai; Cheng, Ben-Chung; Kuo, Chien-Chun; Su, Yih; Ng, Hwee-Yeong; Yang, Chih-Chau; Chuang, Fong-Rong; Liao, Shang-Chih

    2007-01-01

    Aims: chronic inflammation contributes significantly to the morbidity and mortality of chronic hemodialysis patients. A recent research has shown that adipokines were associated with inflammation in these patients. We aim to investigate whether biomarkers of inflammation, adipokines, and clinical features can predict the outcome of hemodialysis patients. Materials and methods: we enrolled 181 hemodialysis patients (men: 97, mean age: 56.3±13.6) and analyzed predictors of long-term outcomes. Results: during the 3-year followup period, 41 patients died; the main causes of death were infection and cardiovascular disease. Elevated serum levels of hsCRP and albumin and advanced age were highly associated with death (all P<.001). Leptin and adiponectin levels were not significantly different between deceased patients and survivors. Cox-regression analysis indicated that age, diabetes, albumin level, and hsCRP were independent factors predicting mortality. Conclusion: the presence of underlying disease, advanced age, and markers of chronic inflammation is strongly related to survival rate in long-term hemodialysis patients. PMID:18288267

  4. Symptom Variability, Not Severity, Predicts Rehospitalization and Mortality in Patients with Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Moser, Debra K.; Frazier, Susan K.; Worrall-Carter, Linda; Biddle, Martha J.; Chung, Misook L.; Lee, Kyoung Suk; Lennie, Terry A.

    2010-01-01

    Background Inability of heart failure (HF) patients to recognize worsening symptoms that herald an exacerbation is a common reason for HF readmissions. Aims To examine the relationship between patterns of HF symptom variability, and HF event-free survival. Methods Patients with HF (N = 71) rated HF symptoms daily for 30 days. Symptoms were rated on a 10 point scale anchored at the extreme ends by “worst symptom could be” and “best symptom could be”. Patients were followed for an average of 1 year to track HF and cardiac rehospitalizations and all-cause mortality. Results Cox regression comparing event-free survival between patients who had highly variable symptom ratings across the 30-days and those whose symptoms were less variable revealed worse event-free survival in patients with more variable symptoms of shortness of breath or edema. Symptom variability predicted event-free survival independently of severity of symptoms, ejection fraction, comorbidities, age and gender. Symptom severity did not predict rehospitalization or mortality. Conclusion Regardless of symptom severity, patients whose symptoms fluctuated in an improving and worsening pattern were at substantially greater risk for poorer event-free survival. These patients may become accustomed to this pattern such that they expect symptoms to improve and thus do not seek treatment with worsening symptoms. PMID:20637697

  5. Trends and predictions for gastric cancer mortality in Brazil

    PubMed Central

    de Souza Giusti, Angela Carolina Brandão; de Oliveira Salvador, Pétala Tuani Candido; dos Santos, Juliano; Meira, Karina Cardoso; Camacho, Amanda Rodrigues; Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça; Souza, Dyego L B

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To analyze the effect of age-period and birth cohort on gastric cancer mortality, in Brazil and across its five geographic regions, by sex, in the population over 20 years of age, as well as make projections for the period 2010-2029. METHODS: An ecological study is presented herein, which distributed gastric cancer-related deaths in Brazil and its geographic regions. The effects of age-period and birth cohort were calculated by the Poisson regression model and projections were made with the age-period-cohort model in the statistical program R. RESULTS: Progressive reduction of mortality rates was observed in the 1980’s, and then higher and lower mortality rates were verified in the 2000’s, for both sexes, in Brazil and for the South, Southeast and Midwest regions. A progressive decrease in mortality rates was observed for the Northeast (both sexes) and North (men only) regions within the period 1995-1999, followed by rising rates. CONCLUSION: Regional differences were demonstrated in the mortality rates for gastric cancer in Brazil, and the least developed regions of the country will present increases in projected mortality rates.

  6. Trends and predictions for gastric cancer mortality in Brazil

    PubMed Central

    de Souza Giusti, Angela Carolina Brandão; de Oliveira Salvador, Pétala Tuani Candido; dos Santos, Juliano; Meira, Karina Cardoso; Camacho, Amanda Rodrigues; Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça; Souza, Dyego L B

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To analyze the effect of age-period and birth cohort on gastric cancer mortality, in Brazil and across its five geographic regions, by sex, in the population over 20 years of age, as well as make projections for the period 2010-2029. METHODS: An ecological study is presented herein, which distributed gastric cancer-related deaths in Brazil and its geographic regions. The effects of age-period and birth cohort were calculated by the Poisson regression model and projections were made with the age-period-cohort model in the statistical program R. RESULTS: Progressive reduction of mortality rates was observed in the 1980’s, and then higher and lower mortality rates were verified in the 2000’s, for both sexes, in Brazil and for the South, Southeast and Midwest regions. A progressive decrease in mortality rates was observed for the Northeast (both sexes) and North (men only) regions within the period 1995-1999, followed by rising rates. CONCLUSION: Regional differences were demonstrated in the mortality rates for gastric cancer in Brazil, and the least developed regions of the country will present increases in projected mortality rates. PMID:27605887

  7. Pulmonary congestion predicts cardiac events and mortality in ESRD.

    PubMed

    Zoccali, Carmine; Torino, Claudia; Tripepi, Rocco; Tripepi, Giovanni; D'Arrigo, Graziella; Postorino, Maurizio; Gargani, Luna; Sicari, Rosa; Picano, Eugenio; Mallamaci, Francesca

    2013-03-01

    Pulmonary congestion is highly prevalent and often asymptomatic among patients with ESRD treated with hemodialysis, but whether its presence predicts clinical outcomes is unknown. Here, we tested the prognostic value of extravascular lung water measured by a simple, well validated ultrasound B-lines score (BL-US) in a multicenter study that enrolled 392 hemodialysis patients. We detected moderate-to-severe lung congestion in 45% and very severe congestion in 14% of the patients. Among those patients with moderate-to-severe lung congestion, 71% were asymptomatic or presented slight symptoms of heart failure. Compared with those patients having mild or no congestion, patients with very severe congestion had a 4.2-fold risk of death (HR=4.20, 95% CI=2.45-7.23) and a 3.2-fold risk of cardiac events (HR=3.20, 95% CI=1.75-5.88) adjusted for NYHA class and other risk factors. Including the degree of pulmonary congestion in the model significantly improved the risk reclassification for cardiac events by 10% (P<0.015). In summary, lung ultrasound can detect asymptomatic pulmonary congestion in hemodialysis patients, and the resulting BL-US score is a strong, independent predictor of death and cardiac events in this population.

  8. Risk factors for 30‐day mortality after resection of lung cancer and prediction of their magnitude

    PubMed Central

    Strand, Trond‐Eirik; Rostad, Hans; Damhuis, Ronald A M; Norstein, Jarle

    2007-01-01

    Background There is considerable variability in reported postoperative mortality and risk factors for mortality after surgery for lung cancer. Population‐based data provide unbiased estimates and may aid in treatment selection. Methods All patients diagnosed with lung cancer in Norway from 1993 to the end of 2005 were reported to the Cancer Registry of Norway (n = 26 665). A total of 4395 patients underwent surgical resection and were included in the analysis. Data on demographics, tumour characteristics and treatment were registered. A subset of 1844 patients was scored according to the Charlson co‐morbidity index. Potential factors influencing 30‐day mortality were analysed by logistic regression. Results The overall postoperative mortality rate was 4.4% within 30 days with a declining trend in the period. Male sex (OR 1.76), older age (OR 3.38 for age band 70–79 years), right‐sided tumours (OR 1.73) and extensive procedures (OR 4.54 for pneumonectomy) were identified as risk factors for postoperative mortality in multivariate analysis. Postoperative mortality at high‐volume hospitals (⩾20 procedures/year) was lower (OR 0.76, p = 0.076). Adjusted ORs for postoperative mortality at individual hospitals ranged from 0.32 to 2.28. The Charlson co‐morbidity index was identified as an independent risk factor for postoperative mortality (p = 0.017). A prediction model for postoperative mortality is presented. Conclusions Even though improvements in postoperative mortality have been observed in recent years, these findings indicate a further potential to optimise the surgical treatment of lung cancer. Hospital treatment results varied but a significant volume effect was not observed. Prognostic models may identify patients requiring intensive postoperative care. PMID:17573442

  9. Change in Leukocyte Telomere Length Predicts Mortality in Patients with Stable Coronary Heart Disease from the Heart and Soul Study

    PubMed Central

    Goglin, Sarah E.; Farzaneh-Far, Ramin; Epel, Elissa S.; Lin, Jue; Blackburn, Elizabeth H.

    2016-01-01

    Background Short telomere length independently predicts mortality in patients with coronary heart disease. Whether 5-year change in telomere length predicts subsequent mortality in patients with coronary heart disease has not been evaluated. Methods In a prospective cohort study of 608 individuals with stable coronary artery disease, we measured leukocyte telomere length at baseline and after five years of follow-up. We divided the sample into tertiles of telomere change: shortened, maintained or lengthened. We used Cox survival models to evaluate 5-year change in telomere length as a predictor of mortality. Results During an average of 4.2 years follow-up, there were 149 deaths. Change in telomere length was inversely predictive of all-cause mortality. Using the continuous variable of telomere length change, each standard deviation (325 base pair) greater increase in telomere length was associated with a 24% reduction in mortality (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.61–0.94; p = 0.01), adjusted for age, sex, waist to hip ratio, exercise capacity, LV ejection fraction, serum creatinine, and year 5 telomere length. Mortality occurred in 39% (79/203) of patients who experienced telomere shortening, 22% (45/203) of patients whose telomere length was maintained, and 12% (25/202) of patients who experienced telomere lengthening (p<0.001). As compared with patients whose telomere length was maintained, those who experienced telomere lengthening were 56% less likely to die (HR 0.44, 95% CI, 0.23–0.87). Conclusions In patients with coronary heart disease, an increase in leukocyte telomere length over 5 years is associated with decreased mortality. PMID:27783614

  10. Acute Kidney Injury Predicts Mortality after Charcoal Burning Suicide

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Yu-Chin; Tseng, Yi-Chia; Huang, Wen-Hung; Hsu, Ching-Wei; Weng, Cheng-Hao; Liu, Shou-Hsuan; Yang, Huang-Yu; Chen, Kuan-Hsin; Chen, Hui-Ling; Fu, Jen-Fen; Lin, Wey-Ran; Wang, I-Kuan; Yen, Tzung-Hai

    2016-01-01

    A paucity of literature exists on risk factors for mortality in charcoal burning suicide. In this observational study, we analyzed the data of 126 patients with charcoal burning suicide that seen between 2002 and 2013. Patients were grouped according to status of renal damage as acute kidney injury (N = 49) or non-acute kidney injury (N = 77). It was found that patients with acute kidney injury suffered severer complications such as respiratory failure (P = 0.002), myocardial injury (P = 0.049), hepatic injury (P < 0.001), rhabdomyolysis (P = 0.045) and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (P = 0.028) than patients without acute kidney injury. Moreover, patients with acute kidney injury suffered longer hospitalization duration (16.9 ± 18.3 versus 10.7 ± 10.9, P = 0.002) and had higher mortality rate (8.2% versus 0%, P = 0.011) than patients without injury. In a multivariate Cox regression model, it was demonstrated that serum creatinine level (P = 0.019) and heart rate (P = 0.022) were significant risk factors for mortality. Finally, Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that patients with acute kidney injury suffered lower cumulative survival than without injury (P = 0.016). In summary, the overall mortality rate of charcoal burning suicide population was 3.2%, and acute kidney injury was a powerful predictor of mortality. Further studies are warranted. PMID:27430168

  11. Acute Kidney Injury Predicts Mortality after Charcoal Burning Suicide.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yu-Chin; Tseng, Yi-Chia; Huang, Wen-Hung; Hsu, Ching-Wei; Weng, Cheng-Hao; Liu, Shou-Hsuan; Yang, Huang-Yu; Chen, Kuan-Hsin; Chen, Hui-Ling; Fu, Jen-Fen; Lin, Wey-Ran; Wang, I-Kuan; Yen, Tzung-Hai

    2016-01-01

    A paucity of literature exists on risk factors for mortality in charcoal burning suicide. In this observational study, we analyzed the data of 126 patients with charcoal burning suicide that seen between 2002 and 2013. Patients were grouped according to status of renal damage as acute kidney injury (N = 49) or non-acute kidney injury (N = 77). It was found that patients with acute kidney injury suffered severer complications such as respiratory failure (P = 0.002), myocardial injury (P = 0.049), hepatic injury (P < 0.001), rhabdomyolysis (P = 0.045) and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (P = 0.028) than patients without acute kidney injury. Moreover, patients with acute kidney injury suffered longer hospitalization duration (16.9 ± 18.3 versus 10.7 ± 10.9, P = 0.002) and had higher mortality rate (8.2% versus 0%, P = 0.011) than patients without injury. In a multivariate Cox regression model, it was demonstrated that serum creatinine level (P = 0.019) and heart rate (P = 0.022) were significant risk factors for mortality. Finally, Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that patients with acute kidney injury suffered lower cumulative survival than without injury (P = 0.016). In summary, the overall mortality rate of charcoal burning suicide population was 3.2%, and acute kidney injury was a powerful predictor of mortality. Further studies are warranted. PMID:27430168

  12. Developing a simple preinterventional score to predict hospital mortality in adult venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: A pilot study.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Yu-Ting; Wu, Meng-Yu; Chang, Yu-Sheng; Huang, Chung-Chi; Lin, Pyng-Jing

    2016-07-01

    Despite gaining popularity, venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) remains a controversial therapy for acute respiratory failure (ARF) in adult patients due to its equivocal survival benefits. The study was aimed at identifying the preinterventional prognostic predictors of hospital mortality in adult VV-ECMO patients and developing a practical mortality prediction score to facilitate clinical decision-making.This retrospective study included 116 adult patients who received VV-ECMO for severe ARF in a tertiary referral center, from 2007 to 2015. The definition of severe ARF was PaO2/ FiO2 ratio < 70 mm Hg under advanced mechanical ventilation (MV). Preinterventional variables including demographic characteristics, ventilatory parameters, and severity of organ dysfunction were collected for analysis. The prognostic predictors of hospital mortality were generated with multivariate logistic regression and transformed into a scoring system. The discriminative power on hospital mortality of the scoring system was presented as the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).The overall hospital mortality rate was 47% (n = 54). Pre-ECMO MV day > 4 (OR: 4.71; 95% CI: 1.98-11.23; P < 0.001), pre-ECMO sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score >9 (OR: 3.16; 95% CI: 1.36-7.36; P = 0.01), and immunocompromised status (OR: 2.91; 95% CI: 1.07-7.89; P = 0.04) were independent predictors of hospital mortality of adult VV-ECMO. A mortality prediction score comprising of the 3 binary predictors was developed and named VV-ECMO mortality score. The total score was estimated as follows: VV-ECMO mortality score = 2 × (Pre-ECMO MV day > 4) + 1 × (Pre-ECMO SOFA score >9) + 1 × (immunocompromised status). The AUROC of VV-ECMO mortality score was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.67-0.85; P < 0.001). The corresponding hospital mortality rates to VV-ECMO mortality scores were 18% (Score 0), 35% (Score 1), 56% (Score 2), 75% (Score

  13. The development of an automated ward independent delirium risk prediction model.

    PubMed

    de Wit, Hugo A J M; Winkens, Bjorn; Mestres Gonzalvo, Carlota; Hurkens, Kim P G M; Mulder, Wubbo J; Janknegt, Rob; Verhey, Frans R; van der Kuy, Paul-Hugo M; Schols, Jos M G A

    2016-08-01

    Background A delirium is common in hospital settings resulting in increased mortality and costs. Prevention of a delirium is clearly preferred over treatment. A delirium risk prediction model can be helpful to identify patients at risk of a delirium, allowing the start of preventive treatment. Current risk prediction models rely on manual calculation of the individual patient risk. Objective The aim of this study was to develop an automated ward independent delirium riskprediction model. To show that such a model can be constructed exclusively from electronically available risk factors and thereby implemented into a clinical decision support system (CDSS) to optimally support the physician to initiate preventive treatment. Setting A Dutch teaching hospital. Methods A retrospective cohort study in which patients, 60 years or older, were selected when admitted to the hospital, with no delirium diagnosis when presenting, or during the first day of admission. We used logistic regression analysis to develop a delirium predictive model out of the electronically available predictive variables. Main outcome measure A delirium risk prediction model. Results A delirium risk prediction model was developed using predictive variables that were significant in the univariable regression analyses. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the "medication model" model was 0.76 after internal validation. Conclusions CDSSs can be used to automatically predict the risk of a delirium in individual hospitalised patients' by exclusively using electronically available predictive variables. To increase the use and improve the quality of predictive models, clinical risk factors should be documented ready for automated use. PMID:27177868

  14. Discharge with Pancreatic Fistula after Pancreaticoduodenectomy Independently Predicts Hospital Readmission.

    PubMed

    Mosquera, Catalina; Vohra, Nasreen A; Fitzgerald, Timothy L; Zervos, Emmanuel E

    2016-08-01

    Readmission rates after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) are among the highest of any surgical procedure. The purpose of this study was to identify those factors present at discharge that may predict readmission after PD. All patients undergoing PD between 2010 and 2015 at a very high (>35 PD/year) volume center were entered into a prospective database. Twenty factors present at discharge from index admission identified on univariate analysis were subjected to multivariate analysis to identify those independently predictive of 30-day hospital readmission. A total of 220 patients underwent PD during the study period, 88 per cent of which had cancer. Mean age was 64.4 ± 11.7 years with slight male preponderance (54.5%) and significant African American representation (33.2%). Surgical complications occurred in 67.3 per cent of patients the most common of which included infectious/leak (30%), gastrointestinal (29%), cardiorespiratory (13%), other (13%), minor complications (7%), multi system failure (5%), and new onset diabetes (3%). The 30-day readmission rate was 27.3 per cent and was due to infection (89%), failure to thrive (32%), nausea/vomiting (15%), or other (15%). On multivariate analysis, presence of pancreatic leak/fistula at discharge was the only significant predictor of readmission, present in 62.5 per cent of all readmitted patients (P = 0.001). Comorbidities, length of stay, insurance status, obesity, smoking, and discharge to a care venue other than home did not predict readmission. Patients manifesting pancreatic fistula after PD are at high risk for hospital readmission. Enhanced scrutiny regarding suitability for discharge should be exercised in these patients and measures taken to minimize readmission whenever possible. PMID:27657584

  15. A New Metric of Inclusive Fitness Predicts the Human Mortality Profile

    PubMed Central

    Newman, Saul J.; Easteal, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Biological species have evolved characteristic patterns of age-specific mortality across their life spans. If these mortality profiles are shaped by natural selection they should reflect underlying variation in the fitness effect of mortality with age. Direct fitness models, however, do not accurately predict the mortality profiles of many species. For several species, including humans, mortality rates vary considerably before and after reproductive ages, during life-stages when no variation in direct fitness is possible. Variation in mortality rates at these ages may reflect indirect effects of natural selection acting through kin. To test this possibility we developed a new two-variable measure of inclusive fitness, which we term the extended genomic output or EGO. Using EGO, we estimate the inclusive fitness effect of mortality at different ages in a small hunter-gatherer population with a typical human mortality profile. EGO in this population predicts 90% of the variation in age-specific mortality. This result represents the first empirical measurement of inclusive fitness of a trait in any species. It shows that the pattern of human survival can largely be explained by variation in the inclusive fitness cost of mortality at different ages. More generally, our approach can be used to estimate the inclusive fitness of any trait or genotype from population data on birth dates and relatedness. PMID:25607654

  16. Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2011

    PubMed Central

    Jung, Kyu-Won; Won, Young-Joo; Kong, Hyun-Joo; Lee, Joo Young; Park, Eun-Cheol; Lee, Jin-Soo

    2011-01-01

    Purpose To estimate the current cancer burden in Korea, cancer incidence and mortality were projected for the year 2011. Materials and Methods The cancer incidence data from 1999-2008 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and the cancer mortality data from 1993-2009 were obtained from the Korea National Statistics Office. Cancer incident cases and rates in 2011 were projected from fitting a linear regression model on observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. For cancer mortality, a similar procedure was applied for projection except that a Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend significantly changed. Results A total of 216,809 new cancer cases and 71,036 cancer deaths are projected to occur in Korea in 2011. For all sites combined, the crude incidence rates are projected to be 437.9 and 420.5 and the age-standardized incidence rates are projected to be 336.5 and 279.7 per 100,000 for men and women, respectively. Conclusion Cancer has become an important public health concern in Korea, and as Korea becomes an aged society, the cancer burden will continue to increase. PMID:21509158

  17. Abdominal aortic calcification is not superior over other vascular calcification in predicting mortality in hemodialysis patients: a retrospective observational study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) guidelines recommend that a lateral abdominal radiograph should be performed to assess vascular calcification (VC) in dialysis patients. However, abdominal aortic calcification is a prevalent finding, and it remains unclear whether other anatomical areas of VC can predict mortality more accurately. Methods A total of 217 maintenance hemodialysis patients were enrolled at the Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital between July 2010 and March 2011. Radiographs of the abdomen, pelvis and hands were evaluated by a radiologist to evaluate the presence of VC. The correlation between different areas of VC and all-cause or cardiovascular mortality was analyzed using univariate and multivariate models. Results The prevalence of VC was 70.0% (152 patients), and most had abdominal aortic calcification (90.1%). During 26 ± 7 months of follow-up, 37 patients died. The VC score was independently associated with patient mortality. VC observed on abdominal radiographs (abdominal aortic calcification) was associated with all-cause mortality in models adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors (HR, 4.69; 95%CI, 1.60-13.69) and dialysis factors (HR, 3.38; 95%CI, 1.18-9.69). VC in the pelvis or hands was associated with all-cause mortality in the model adjusted for dialysis factors. When three combinations of VC in different radiographs were included in models, the presence of abdominal VC was only significantly associated with all-cause mortality in the integrated model. VC in the abdomen and pelvis was associated with all-cause mortality in the model adjusted for cardiovascular factors and the integrated model, but neither was significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality. VC in all radiographs was significantly associated with a more than 6-fold risk of all-cause mortality and a more than 5-fold risk of cardiovascular mortality compared to patients without VC. Conclusions VC in different arteries as shown on

  18. A biological approach to the interspecies prediction of radiation-induced mortality risk

    SciTech Connect

    Carnes, B.A.; Grahn, D.; Olshansky, S.J.

    1997-08-01

    Evolutionary explanations for why sexually reproducing organisms grow old suggest that the forces of natural selection affect the ages when diseases occur that are subject to a genetic influence (referred to here as intrinsic diseases). When extended to the population level for a species, this logic leads to the general prediction that age-specific death rates from intrinsic causes should begin to rise as the force of selection wanes once the characteristic age of sexual maturity is attained. Results consistent with these predictions have been found for laboratory mice, beagles, and humans where, after adjusting for differences in life span, it was demonstrated that these species share a common age pattern of mortality for intrinsic causes of death. In quantitative models used to predict radiation-induced mortality, risks are often expressed as multiples of those observed in a control population. A control population, however, is an aging population. As such, mortality risks related to exposure must be interpreted relative to the age-specific risk of death associated with aging. Given the previous success in making interspecies predictions of age-related mortality, the purpose of this study was to determine whether radiation-induced mortality observed in one species could also be predicted quantitatively from a model used to describe the mortality consequences of exposure to radiation in a different species. Mortality data for B6CF{sub 1} mice and beagles exposed to {sup 60}Co {gamma}-rays for the duration of life were used for analysis.

  19. Which metric of ambient ozone to predict daily mortality?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moshammer, Hanns; Hutter, Hans-Peter; Kundi, Michael

    2013-02-01

    It is well known that ozone concentration is associated with daily cause specific mortality. But which ozone metric is the best predictor of the daily variability in mortality? We performed a time series analysis on daily deaths (all causes, respiratory and cardiovascular causes as well as death in elderly 65+) in Vienna for the years 1991-2009. We controlled for seasonal and long term trend, day of the week, temperature and humidity using the same basic model for all pollutant metrics. We found model fit was best for same day variability of ozone concentration (calculated as the difference between daily hourly maximum and minimum) and hourly maximum. Of these the variability displayed a more linear dose-response function. Maximum 8 h moving average and daily mean value performed not so well. Nitrogen dioxide (daily mean) in comparison performed better when previous day values were assessed. Same day ozone and previous day nitrogen dioxide effect estimates did not confound each other. Variability in daily ozone levels or peak ozone levels seem to be a better proxy of a complex reactive secondary pollutant mixture than daily average ozone levels in the Middle European setting. If this finding is confirmed this would have implications for the setting of legally binding limit values.

  20. Amiodarone-Induced Cirrhosis of Liver: What Predicts Mortality?

    PubMed Central

    Hussain, Nasir

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. Amiodarone has been used for more than 5 decades for the treatment of various tachyarrhythmias and previously for the treatment of refractory angina. There are multiple well-established side effects of amiodarone. However, amiodarone-induced cirrhosis (AIC) of liver is an underrecognized complication. Methods. A systematic search of Medline from January 1970 to November 2012 by using the following terms, amiodarone and cirrhosis, identified 37 reported cases of which 30 were used in this analysis. Patients were divided into 2 subsets, survivors versus nonsurvivors, at 5 months. Results. Aspartate aminotransferase was significantly lower (P = 0.03) in patients who survived at 5-months (mean 103.33 IU/L) compared to nonsurvivors (mean 216.88 IU/L). There was no statistical difference in the levels of prothrombin time, total bilirubin, alanine aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, cumulative dose, and latency period between the two groups. The prevalence of DM, HTN, HLD, CAD, and CHF was similar in the two groups. None of the above-mentioned variables could be identified as a predictor of survival at 5 months. Conclusion. AIC carries a mortality risk of 60% at 5 months once the diagnosis is established. Further prospective studies are needed to identify predictors of AIC and of mortality or survival in cases of AIC. PMID:23577267

  1. Mortality of Inshore Marine Mammals in Eastern Australia Is Predicted by Freshwater Discharge and Air Temperature

    PubMed Central

    Meager, Justin J.; Limpus, Colin

    2014-01-01

    Understanding environmental and climatic drivers of natural mortality of marine mammals is critical for managing populations effectively and for predicting responses to climate change. Here we use a 17-year dataset to demonstrate a clear relationship between environmental forcing and natural mortality of inshore marine mammals across a subtropical-tropical coastline spanning a latitudinal gradient of 13° (>2000 km of coastline). Peak mortality of inshore dolphins and dugongs followed sustained periods of elevated freshwater discharge (9 months) and low air temperature (3 months). At a regional scale, these results translated into a strong relationship between annual mortality and an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The number of cyclones crossing the coastline had a comparatively weak effect on inshore marine mammal mortality, and only in the tropics. Natural mortality of offshore/migratory cetaceans was not predicted by freshwater discharge, but was related to lagged air temperature. These results represent the first quantitative link between environmental forcing and marine mammal mortality in the tropics, and form the basis of a predictive tool for managers to prepare responses to periods of elevated marine mammal mortality. PMID:24740149

  2. Single baseline serum creatinine measurements predict mortality in critically ill patients hospitalized for acute heart failure

    PubMed Central

    Schefold, Joerg C.; Hodoscek, Lea Majc; Blöchlinger, Stefan; Doehner, Wolfram; von Haehling, Stephan

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background Acute heart failure (AHF) is a leading cause of death in critically ill patients and is often accompanied by significant renal dysfunction. Few data exist on the predictive value of measures of renal dysfunction in large cohorts of patients hospitalized for AHF. Methods Six hundred and eighteen patients hospitalized for AHF (300 male, aged 73.3 ± 10.3 years, 73% New York Heart Association Class 4, mean hospital length of stay 12.9 ± 7.7 days, 97% non‐ischaemic AHF) were included in a retrospective single‐centre data analysis. Echocardiographic data, serum creatinine/urea levels, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and clinical/laboratory markers were recorded. Mean follow‐up time was 2.9 ± 2.1 years. All‐cause mortality was recorded, and univariate/multivariate analyses were performed. Results Normal renal function defined as eGFR > 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 was noted in only 3% of AHF patients at baseline. A significant correlation of left ventricular ejection fraction with serum creatinine levels and eGFR (all P < 0.002) was noted. All‐cause mortality rates were 12% (90 days) and 40% (at 2 years), respectively. In a multivariate model, increased age, higher New York Heart Association class at admission, higher total cholesterol levels, and lower eGFR independently predicted death. Patients with baseline eGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 had an exceptionally high risk of death (odds ratio 2.80, 95% confidence interval 1.52–5.15, P = 0.001). Conclusions In a large cohort of patients with mostly non‐ischaemic AHF, enhanced serum creatinine levels and reduced eGFR independently predict death. It appears that patients with eGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 have poorest survival rates. Our data add to mounting data indicating that impaired renal function is an important risk factor for non‐survival in patients hospitalized for AHF.

  3. A 6-Point TACS Score Predicts In-Hospital Mortality Following Total Anterior Circulation Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Wood, Adrian D; Gollop, Nicholas D; Bettencourt-Silva, Joao H; Clark, Allan B; Metcalf, Anthony K; Bowles, Kristian M; Flather, Marcus D; Potter, John F

    2016-01-01

    Background and Purpose Little is known about the factors associated with in-hospital mortality following total anterior circulation stroke (TACS). We examined the characteristics and comorbidity data for TACS patients in relation to in-hospital mortality with the aim of developing a simple clinical rule for predicting the acute mortality outcome in TACS. Methods A routine data registry of one regional hospital in the UK was analyzed. The subjects were 2,971 stroke patients with TACS (82% ischemic; median age=81 years, interquartile age range=74–86 years) admitted between 1996 and 2012. Uni- and multivariate regression models were used to estimate in-hospital mortality odds ratios for the study covariates. A 6-point TACS scoring system was developed from regression analyses to predict in-hospital mortality as the outcome. Results Factors associated with in-hospital mortality of TACS were male sex [adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=1.19], age (AOR=4.96 for ≥85 years vs. <65 years), hemorrhagic subtype (AOR=1.70), nonlateralization (AOR=1.75), prestroke disability (AOR=1.73 for moderate disability vs. no symptoms), and congestive heart failure (CHF) (AOR=1.61). Risk stratification using the 6-point TACS Score [T=type (hemorrhage=1 point) and territory (nonlateralization=1 point), A=age (65–84 years=1 point, ≥85 years=2 points), C=CHF (if present=1 point), S=status before stroke (prestroke modified Rankin Scale score of 4 or 5=1 point)] reliably predicted a mortality outcome: score=0, 29.4% mortality; score=1, 46.2% mortality [negative predictive value (NPV)=70.6%, positive predictive value (PPV)=46.2%]; score=2, 64.1% mortality (NPV=70.6, PPV=64.1%); score=3, 73.7% mortality (NPV=70.6%, PPV=73.7%); and score=4 or 5, 81.2% mortality (NPV=70.6%, PPV=81.2%). Conclusions We have identified the key determinants of in-hospital mortality following TACS and derived a 6-point TACS Score that can be used to predict the prognosis of particular patients.

  4. Predicting One-Year Mortality in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: An Analysis of the China Peritoneal Dialysis Registry

    PubMed Central

    Cao, Xue-Ying; Zhou, Jian-Hui; Cai, Guang-Yan; Tan, Ni-Na; Huang, Jing; Xie, Xiang-Cheng; Tang, Li; Chen, Xiang-Mei

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to investigate basic clinical features of peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients, their prognostic risk factors, and to establish a prognostic model for predicting their one-year mortality. A national multi-center cohort study was performed. A total of 5,405 new PD cases from China Peritoneal Dialysis Registry in 2012 were enrolled in model group. All these patients had complete baseline data and were followed for one year. Demographic and clinical features of these patients were collected. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze prognostic risk factors and establish prognostic model. A validation group was established using 1,764 new PD cases between January 1, 2013 and July 1, 2013, and to verify accuracy of prognostic model. Results indicated that model group included 4,453 live PD cases and 371 dead cases. Multivariate survival analysis showed that diabetes mellitus (DM), residual glomerular filtration rate (rGFR), , SBP, Kt/V, high PET type and Alb were independently associated with one-year mortality. Model was statistically significant in both within-group verification and outside-group verification. In conclusion, DM, rGFR, SBP, Kt/V, high PET type and Alb were independent risk factors for short-term mortality in PD patients. Prognostic model established in this study accurately predicted risk of short-term death in PD patients. PMID:26019685

  5. Factors predicting mortality in a total population sample of the elderly.

    PubMed Central

    Campbell, A J; Diep, C; Reinken, J; McCosh, L

    1985-01-01

    Between 1977 and 1979 an age stratified sample of people 65 years and over living in the community and in institutions in Gisborne, New Zealand was assessed medically and socially. This sample was followed and reviewed in 1982. At follow up 308 subjects were seen, 227 had died, and 24 had left the area. Factors predicting mortality were assessed. Using a log rank test, factors predicting mortality included age, impaired mental function, functional disability, urinary incontinence, prescribed drugs, pulse pressure, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), systolic pressure, cardiovascular drugs, and falls. However, a number of these factors increased in prevalence with age. Using a Cox's regression analysis for factors predicting mortality after controlling for age, the following were found to be significant predictors: impaired mental function; functional disability; urinary incontinence; prescribed drugs, ESR and falls. A proportional hazards general linear model showed that the major predictors of mortality in old age were markers of established disease. PMID:4086965

  6. An Improved Patient-Specific Mortality Risk Prediction in ICU in a Random Forest Classification Framework.

    PubMed

    Ghose, Soumya; Mitra, Jhimli; Khanna, Sankalp; Dowling, Jason

    2015-01-01

    Dynamic and automatic patient specific prediction of the risk associated with ICU mortality may facilitate timely and appropriate intervention of health professionals in hospitals. In this work, patient information and time series measurements of vital signs and laboratory results from the first 48 hours of ICU stays of 4000 adult patients from a publicly available dataset are used to design and validate a mortality prediction system. An ensemble of decision trees are used to simultaneously predict and associate a risk score against each patient in a k-fold validation framework. Risk assessment prediction accuracy of 87% is achieved with our model and the results show significant improvement over a baseline algorithm of SAPS-I that is commonly used for mortality prediction in ICU. The performance of our model is further compared to other state-of-the-art algorithms evaluated on the same dataset. PMID:26210418

  7. Predicting mortality with biomarkers: a population-based prospective cohort study for elderly Costa Ricans

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Little is known about adult health and mortality relationships outside high-income nations, partly because few datasets have contained biomarker data in representative populations. Our objective is to determine the prognostic value of biomarkers with respect to total and cardiovascular mortality in an elderly population of a middle-income country, as well as the extent to which they mediate the effects of age and sex on mortality. Methods This is a prospective population-based study in a nationally representative sample of elderly Costa Ricans. Baseline interviews occurred mostly in 2005 and mortality follow-up went through December 2010. Sample size after excluding observations with missing values: 2,313 individuals and 564 deaths. Main outcome: prospective death rate ratios for 22 baseline biomarkers, which were estimated with hazard regression models. Results Biomarkers significantly predict future death above and beyond demographic and self-reported health conditions. The studied biomarkers account for almost half of the effect of age on mortality. However, the sex gap in mortality became several times wider after controlling for biomarkers. The most powerful predictors were simple physical tests: handgrip strength, pulmonary peak flow, and walking speed. Three blood tests also predicted prospective mortality: C-reactive protein (CRP), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS). Strikingly, high blood pressure (BP) and high total cholesterol showed little or no predictive power. Anthropometric measures also failed to show significant mortality effects. Conclusions This study adds to the growing evidence that blood markers for CRP, HbA1c, and DHEAS, along with organ-specific functional reserve indicators (handgrip, walking speed, and pulmonary peak flow), are valuable tools for identifying vulnerable elderly. The results also highlight the need to better understand an anomaly noted previously in other settings: despite the

  8. Pleural cancer mortality in Spain: time-trends and updating of predictions up to 2020

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background A total of 2,514,346 metric tons (Mt) of asbestos were imported into Spain from 1906 until the ban on asbestos in 2002. Our objective was to study pleural cancer mortality trends as an indicator of mesothelioma mortality and update mortality predictions for the periods 2011–2015 and 2016–2020 in Spain. Methods Log-linear Poisson models were fitted to study the effect of age, period of death and birth cohort (APC) on mortality trends. Change points in cohort- and period-effect curvatures were assessed using segmented regression. Fractional power-link APC models were used to predict mortality until 2020. In addition, an alternative model based on national asbestos consumption figures was also used to perform long-term predictions. Results Pleural cancer deaths increased across the study period, rising from 491 in 1976–1980 to 1,249 in 2006–2010. Predictions for the five-year period 2016–2020 indicated a total of 1,319 pleural cancer deaths (264 deaths/year). Forecasts up to 2020 indicated that this increase would continue, though the age-adjusted rates showed a levelling-off in male mortality from 2001 to 2005, corresponding to the lower risk in post-1960 generations. Among women, rates were lower and the mortality trend was also different, indicating that occupational exposure was possibly the single factor having most influence on pleural cancer mortality. Conclusion The cancer mortality-related consequences of human exposure to asbestos are set to persist and remain in evidence until the last surviving members of the exposed cohorts have disappeared. It can thus be assumed that occupationally-related deaths due to pleural mesothelioma will continue to occur in Spain until at least 2040. PMID:24195451

  9. A satellite mortality study to support space systems lifetime prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fox, George; Salazar, Ronald; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Dubos, Gregory F.

    Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

  10. A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox, George; Salazar, Ronald; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Dubos, Gregory

    2013-01-01

    Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

  11. Multivariate prediction of total and cardiovascular mortality in an obese Polynesian population.

    PubMed

    Crews, D E

    1989-08-01

    The effects of body weight and blood pressure on the risk of total mortality and mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) were examined in a prospective sample of 5,866 adult residents of American Samoa, a Polynesian population noted for exhibiting high levels of obesity. Data collected during 1975-76 were linked to mortality records from 1976 through 1981. In logistic regression models which did not include blood pressure, percent of desirable weight was an important risk factor for mortality from CVD, but it was not an important risk factor when diastolic blood pressure was included in the model. Percent of desirable weight was not related to mortality from all causes combined in either Samoan men or women. Age and diastolic blood pressure were predictors of total and CVD mortality in men and women. These results, in an obese population, suggest that body weight and obesity are not independently related to excess mortality in the very obese, although they may associate with high blood pressure. These results also suggest that relations between physiological characteristics and mortality may vary with cultural, genetic, or other factors not examined in this study. PMID:2751036

  12. Multivariate prediction of total and cardiovascular mortality in an obese Polynesian population.

    PubMed

    Crews, D E

    1989-08-01

    The effects of body weight and blood pressure on the risk of total mortality and mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) were examined in a prospective sample of 5,866 adult residents of American Samoa, a Polynesian population noted for exhibiting high levels of obesity. Data collected during 1975-76 were linked to mortality records from 1976 through 1981. In logistic regression models which did not include blood pressure, percent of desirable weight was an important risk factor for mortality from CVD, but it was not an important risk factor when diastolic blood pressure was included in the model. Percent of desirable weight was not related to mortality from all causes combined in either Samoan men or women. Age and diastolic blood pressure were predictors of total and CVD mortality in men and women. These results, in an obese population, suggest that body weight and obesity are not independently related to excess mortality in the very obese, although they may associate with high blood pressure. These results also suggest that relations between physiological characteristics and mortality may vary with cultural, genetic, or other factors not examined in this study.

  13. Predictive Factors of Hospital Mortality Due to Myocardial Infarction: A Multilevel Analysis of Iran's National Data

    PubMed Central

    Ahmadi, Ali; Soori, Hamid; Mehrabi, Yadollah; Etemad, Koorosh; Sajjadi, Homeira; Sadeghi, Mehraban

    2015-01-01

    Background: Regarding failure to establish the statistical presuppositions for analysis of the data by conventional approaches, hierarchical structure of the data as well as the effect of higher-level variables, this study was conducted to determine the factors independently associated with hospital mortality due to myocardial infarction (MI) in Iran using a multilevel analysis. Methods: This study was a national, hospital-based, and cross-sectional study. In this study, the data of 20750 new MI patients between April, 2012 and March, 2013 in Iran were used. The hospital mortality due to MI was considered as the dependent variable. The demographic data, clinical and behavioral risk factors at the individual level and environmental data were gathered. Multilevel logistic regression models with Stata software were used to analyze the data. Results: Within 1-year of study, the frequency (%) of hospital mortality within 30 days of admission was derived 2511 (12.1%) patients. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) of mortality with (95% confidence interval [CI]) was derived 2.07 (95% CI: 1.5–2.8) for right bundle branch block, 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3–1.7) for ST-segment elevation MI, 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1–1.4) for female gender, and 1.2 (95% CI: 1.1–1.3) for humidity, all of which were considered as risk factors of mortality. But, OR of mortality was 0.7 for precipitation (95% CI: 0.7–0.8) and 0.5 for angioplasty (95% CI: 0.4–0.6) were considered as protective factors of mortality. Conclusions: Individual risk factors had independent effects on the hospital mortality due to MI. Variables in the province level had no significant effect on the outcome of MI. Increasing access and quality to treatment could reduce the mortality due to MI. PMID:26730342

  14. The Low Fall as a Surrogate Marker of Frailty Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Older Trauma Patients

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Ting Hway; Nguyen, Hai V.; Chiu, Ming Terk; Chow, Khuan Yew; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock; Lim, Gek Hsiang; Nadkarni, Nivedita Vikas; Bautista, Dianne Carrol Tan; Cheng, Jolene Yu Xuan; Loo, Lynette Mee Ann; Seow, Dennis Chuen Chai

    2015-01-01

    Background Frailty is associated with adverse outcomes including disability, mortality and risk of falls. Trauma registries capture a broad range of injuries. However, frail patients who fall comprise a large proportion of the injuries occurring in ageing populations and are likely to have different outcomes compared to non-frail injured patients. The effect of frail fallers on mortality is under-explored but potentially significant. Currently, many trauma registries define low falls as less than three metres, a height that is likely to include non-frailty falls. We hypothesized that the low fall from less than 0.5 metres, including same-level falls, is a surrogate marker of frailty and predicts long-term mortality in older trauma patients. Methods Using data from the Singapore National Trauma Registry, 2011–2013, matched till September 2014 to the death registry, we analysed adults aged over 45 admitted via the emergency department in public hospitals sustaining blunt injuries with an injury severity score (ISS) of 9 or more, excluding isolated hip fractures from same-level falls in the over 65. Patients injured by a low fall were compared to patients injured by high fall and other blunt mechanisms. Logistic regression was used to analyze 12-month mortality, controlling for mechanism of injury, ISS, revised trauma score (RTS), co-morbidities, gender, age and age-gender interaction. Different low fall height definitions, adjusting for injury regions, and analyzing the entire adult cohort were used in sensitivity analyses and did not change our findings. Results Of the 8111 adults in our cohort, patients who suffered low falls were more likely to die of causes unrelated to their injuries (p<0.001), compared to other blunt trauma and higher fall heights. They were at higher risk of 12-month mortality (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.18–2.58, p = 0.005), independent of ISS, RTS, age, gender, age-gender interaction and co-morbidities. Falls that were higher than 0.5m did not

  15. Multi-scale heart rate dynamics detected by phase-rectified signal averaging predicts mortality after acute myocardial infarction

    PubMed Central

    Kisohara, Masaya; Stein, Phyllis K.; Yoshida, Yutaka; Suzuki, Mari; Iizuka, Narushi; Carney, Robert M.; Watkins, Lana L.; Freedland, Kenneth E.; Blumenthal, James A.; Hayano, Junichiro

    2013-01-01

    Aims Acceleration and deceleration capacity (AC and DC) for beat-to-beat short-term heart rate dynamics are powerful predictors of mortality after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We examined if AC and DC for minute-order long-term heart rate dynamics also have independent predictive value. Methods and results We studied 24-hr Holter electrcardiograms in 708 post-AMI patients who were followed up for up to 30 months thereafter. Acceleration capacity and DC was calculated with the time scales of T (window size defining heart rate) and s (wavelet scale) from 1 to 500 s and compared their prognostic values with conventional measures (ACconv and DCconv) that were calculated with (T,s) = [1,2 (beat)]. During the follow-up, 47 patients died. Both increased ACconv and decreased DCconv predicted mortality (C statistic, 0.792 and 0.797). Concordantly, sharp peaks of C statistics were observed at (T,s) = [2,7 (sec)] for both increased AC and decreased DC (0.762 and 0.768), but there were larger peaks of C statistics at around [30,60 (sec)] for both (0.783 and 0.796). The C statistic was greater for DC than AC at (30,60) (P = 0.0012). Deceleration capacity at (30,60) was a significant predictor even after adjusted for ACconv (P = 0.020) and DCconv (P = 0.028), but the predictive power of AC at (30,60) was no longer significant. Conclusion A decrease in DC for minute-order long-term heart rate dynamics is a strong predictor for post-AMI mortality and the predictive power is independent of ACconv and DCconv for beat-to-beat short-term heart rate dynamics. PMID:23248218

  16. Independent and joint effects of sedentary time and cardiorespiratory fitness on all-cause mortality: the Cooper Center Longitudinal Study

    PubMed Central

    Shuval, Kerem; Finley, Carrie E; Barlow, Carolyn E; Nguyen, Binh T; Njike, Valentine Y; Pettee Gabriel, Kelley

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To examine the independent and joint effects of sedentary time and cardiorespiratory fitness (fitness) on all-cause mortality. Design, setting, participants A prospective study of 3141 Cooper Center Longitudinal Study participants. Participants provided information on television (TV) viewing and car time in 1982 and completed a maximal exercise test during a 1-year time frame; they were then followed until mortality or through 2010. TV viewing, car time, total sedentary time and fitness were the primary exposures and all-cause mortality was the outcome. The relationship between the exposures and outcome was examined utilising Cox proportional hazard models. Results A total of 581 deaths occurred over a median follow-up period of 28.7 years (SD=4.4). At baseline, participants’ mean age was 45.0 years (SD=9.6), 86.5% were men and their mean body mass index was 24.6 (SD=3.0). Multivariable analyses revealed a significant linear relationship between increased fitness and lower mortality risk, even while adjusting for total sedentary time and covariates (p=0.02). The effects of total sedentary time on increased mortality risk did not quite reach statistical significance once fitness and covariates were adjusted for (p=0.05). When examining this relationship categorically, in comparison to the reference category (≤10 h/week), being sedentary for ≥23 h weekly increased mortality risk by 29% without controlling for fitness (HR=1.29, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.63); however, once fitness and covariates were taken into account this relationship did not reach statistical significance (HR=1.20, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.51). Moreover, spending >10 h in the car weekly significantly increased mortality risk by 27% in the fully adjusted model. The association between TV viewing and mortality was not significant. Conclusions The relationship between total sedentary time and higher mortality risk is less pronounced when fitness is taken into account. Increased car time, but

  17. Circulating desmosine levels do not predict emphysema progression but are associated with cardiovascular risk and mortality in COPD.

    PubMed

    Rabinovich, Roberto A; Miller, Bruce E; Wrobel, Karolina; Ranjit, Kareshma; Williams, Michelle C; Drost, Ellen; Edwards, Lisa D; Lomas, David A; Rennard, Stephen I; Agustí, Alvar; Tal-Singer, Ruth; Vestbo, Jørgen; Wouters, Emiel F M; John, Michelle; van Beek, Edwin J R; Murchison, John T; Bolton, Charlotte E; MacNee, William; Huang, Jeffrey T J

    2016-05-01

    Elastin degradation is a key feature of emphysema and may have a role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Circulating desmosine is a specific biomarker of elastin degradation. We investigated the association between plasma desmosine (pDES) and emphysema severity/progression, coronary artery calcium score (CACS) and mortality.pDES was measured in 1177 COPD patients and 110 healthy control subjects from two independent cohorts. Emphysema was assessed on chest computed tomography scans. Aortic arterial stiffness was measured as the aortic-femoral pulse wave velocity.pDES was elevated in patients with cardiovascular disease (p<0.005) and correlated with age (rho=0.39, p<0.0005), CACS (rho=0.19, p<0.0005) modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea score (rho=0.15, p<0.0005), 6-min walking distance (rho=-0.17, p<0.0005) and body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, exercise capacity index (rho=0.10, p<0.01), but not with emphysema, emphysema progression or forced expiratory volume in 1 s decline. pDES predicted all-cause mortality independently of several confounding factors (p<0.005). In an independent cohort of 186 patients with COPD and 110 control subjects, pDES levels were higher in COPD patients with cardiovascular disease and correlated with arterial stiffness (p<0.05).In COPD, excess elastin degradation relates to cardiovascular comorbidities, atherosclerosis, arterial stiffness, systemic inflammation and mortality, but not to emphysema or emphysema progression. pDES is a good biomarker of cardiovascular risk and mortality in COPD. PMID:27009168

  18. Risk Prediction Models for Mortality in Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Loke, Yoon K.; Myint, Phyo Kyaw

    2013-01-01

    Background. Several models have been developed to predict the risk of mortality in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). This study aims to systematically identify and evaluate the performance of published risk prediction models for CAP. Methods. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane library in November 2011 for initial derivation and validation studies for models which predict pneumonia mortality. We aimed to present the comparative usefulness of their mortality prediction. Results. We identified 20 different published risk prediction models for mortality in CAP. Four models relied on clinical variables that could be assessed in community settings, with the two validated models BTS1 and CRB-65 showing fairly similar balanced accuracy levels (0.77 and 0.72, resp.), while CRB-65 had AUROC of 0.78. Nine models required laboratory tests in addition to clinical variables, and the best performance levels amongst the validated models were those of CURB and CURB-65 (balanced accuracy 0.73 and 0.71, resp.), with CURB-65 having an AUROC of 0.79. The PSI (AUROC 0.82) was the only validated model with good discriminative ability among the four that relied on clinical, laboratorial, and radiological variables. Conclusions. There is no convincing evidence that other risk prediction models improve upon the well-established CURB-65 and PSI models. PMID:24228253

  19. Use of APACHE II and SAPS II to predict mortality for hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke patients.

    PubMed

    Moon, Byeong Hoo; Park, Sang Kyu; Jang, Dong Kyu; Jang, Kyoung Sool; Kim, Jong Tae; Han, Yong Min

    2015-01-01

    We studied the applicability of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with acute stroke and compared the results with the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). We also conducted a comparative study of accuracy for predicting hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality. Between January 2011 and December 2012, ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke patients admitted to the ICU were included in the study. APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were compared using a calibration curve, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the results were compared with the GCS and NIHSS. Overall 498 patients were included in this study. The observed mortality was 26.3%, whereas APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were 35.12% and 35.34%, respectively. The mean GCS and NIHSS scores were 9.43 and 21.63, respectively. The calibration curve was close to the line of perfect prediction. The ROC curve showed a slightly better prediction of mortality for APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients. The GCS and NIHSS were inferior in predicting mortality in both patient groups. Although both the APACHE II and SAPS II systems can be used to measure performance in the neurosurgical ICU setting, the accuracy of APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients was superior.

  20. Initial Presentations Predict Mortality in Pulmonary Tuberculosis Patients - A Prospective Observational Study

    PubMed Central

    Feng, Jia-Yih; Su, Wei-Juin; Chiu, Yu-Chi; Huang, Shiang-Fen; Lin, Yung-Yang; Huang, Ruay-Ming; Lin, Ching-Hsiung; Hwang, Jhi-Jhu; Lee, Jen-Jyh; Yu, Ming-Chih; Yu, Kwok-Woon; Lee, Yu-Chin

    2011-01-01

    Background Despite effective anti-TB treatments, tuberculosis remains a serious threat to public health and is associated with high mortality. Old age and multiple co-morbidities are known risk factors for death. The association of clinical presentations with mortality in pulmonary tuberculosis patients remains an issue of controversy. Methods This prospective observational study enrolled newly diagnosed, culture-proven pulmonary tuberculosis patients from five medical centers and one regional hospital, which were referral hospitals of TB patients. Radiographic findings and clinical symptoms were determined at the time of diagnosis. Patients who died for any reason during the course of anti-TB treatment were defined as mortality cases and death that occurred within 30 days of initiating treatment was defined as early mortality. Clinical factors associated with overall mortality and early mortality were investigated. Results A total of 992 patients were enrolled and 195 (19.7%) died. Nearly one-third (62/195, 31.8%) of the deaths occurred before or within 30 days of treatment initiation. Older age (RR = 1.04, 95%CI: 1.03–1.05), malignancy (RR = 2.42, 95%CI: 1.77–3.31), renal insufficiency (RR = 1.77, 95%CI: 1.12–2.80), presence of chronic cough (RR = 0.63, 95%CI: 0.47–0.84), fever (RR = 1.45, 95%CI: 1.09–1.94), and anorexia (RR = 1.49, 95%CI: 1.07–2.06) were independently associated with overall mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated significantly higher mortality in patients present with fever (p<0.001), anorexia (p = 0.005), and without chronic cough (p<0.001). Among patients of mortality, those with respiratory symptoms of chronic cough (RR = 0.56, 95%CI: 0.33–0.98) and dyspnea (HR = 0.51, 95%CI: 0.27–0.98) were less likely to experience early mortality. The radiological features were comparable between survivors and non-survivors. Conclusions In addition to demographic characteristics, clinical

  1. Maternal health in fifty years of Tanzania independence: Challenges and opportunities of reducing maternal mortality.

    PubMed

    Shija, Angela E; Msovela, Judith; Mboera, Leonard E G

    2011-12-01

    High rate of maternal death is one of the major public health concerns in Tanzania. Most of maternal deaths are caused by factors attributed to pregnancy, childbirth and poor quality of health services. More than 80% of maternal deaths can be prevented if pregnant women access essential maternity care and assured of skilled attendance at childbirth as well as emergency obstetric care. The objective of this review was to analyse maternal mortality situation in Tanzania during the past 50 years and to identify efforts, challenges and opportunities of reducing it. This paper was written through desk review of key policy documents, technical reports, publications and available internet-based literature. From 1961 to 1990 maternal mortality ratio in Tanzania had been on a downward trend from 453 to 200 per 100,000 live births. However, from 1990's there been an increasing trend to 578 per 100,000 live births. Current statistics indicate that maternal mortality ratio has dropped slightly in 2010 to 454 per 100,000 live births. Despite a high coverage (96%) in pregnant women who attend at least one antenatal clinic, only half of the women (51%) have access to skilled delivery. Coverage of emergence obstetric services is 64.5% and utilization of modern family planning method is 27%. Only about 13% of home deliveries access post natal check-up. Despite a number of efforts maternal mortality is still unacceptably high. Some of the efforts done to reduce maternal mortality in Tanzania included the following initiatives: reproductive and child survival; increased skilled delivery; maternal death audit; coordination and integration of different programs including maternal and child health services, family planning, malaria interventions, expanded program on immunization and adolescent health and nutrition programmes. These initiatives are however challenged by inadequate access to maternal health care services. In order to considerably reduce maternal deaths some of recommended

  2. STARD-compliant article: The utility of red cell distribution width to predict mortality for septic patients visiting the emergency department.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chun-Kuei; Lin, Shen-Che; Wu, Chin-Chieh; Chen, Li-Min; Tzeng, I-Shiang; Chen, Kuan-Fu

    2016-06-01

    Sepsis is a common condition in the emergency department that is associated with high mortality. Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) has been used as a simple prognosis predictor for patients with community-acquired pneumonia, gram-negative bacteremia, and severe sepsis or septic shock. To evaluate the performance of RDW to predict in-hospital mortality among septic patients, we conducted a hospital-based retrospective cohort study in an emergency department of a tertiary teaching hospital. RDW was compared with other commonly used clinical prediction scores (Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) and the Confusion, Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, 65 years of age and older (CURB65)). Of 6973 consecutive adult patients with a clinical diagnosis of sepsis and 2 sets of blood culture ordered by physicians, 477 (6.8%) died. The mortality group had higher RDW levels than the survival group (15.7% vs 13.8%). After dividing RDW into quartiles, the patients in the highest RDW quartile (RDW >15.6%; mortality, 16.7%) had more than twice the risk of in-hospital mortality compared with patients in the second highest quartile (RDW >14% and <15.6%; mortality, 7.3%), whereas the mortality rate in the lowest RDW quartile (<13.1%) was only 1.6%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of RDW to predict mortality was 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.77), which is significantly higher than the areas under the curve of clinical prediction rules (SIRS, MEDS, and CURB65). After integrating RDW into these scores, all scores performed better in predicting mortality (0.73, 0.72, and 0.77, for SIRS, MEDS, and CURB65, respectively). RDW could be an independent predictor of mortality among septic patients. Clinicians could classify the septic patients into different risk groups according to RDW quartiles. For more accurate mortality prediction, RDW could be a potential parameter to be

  3. Prediction of in-hospital mortality after ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm repair using an artificial neural network

    PubMed Central

    Wise, Eric S.; Hocking, Kyle M.; Brophy, Colleen M.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) carries a high mortality rate, even with prompt transfer to a medical center. An artificial neural network (ANN) is a computational model which improves predictive ability via pattern recognition, while continually adapting to new input data. The goal of this study was to effectively use ANN modeling to provide vascular surgeons a discriminant adjunct to assess the likelihood of in-hospital mortality on a pending rAAA admission using easily obtainable patient information from the field. Methods One-hundred and twenty-five of 332 total patients from a single-institution from 1998–2013 who had attempted rAAA repair were reviewed for preoperative factors associated with in-hospital mortality. One-hundred and eight patients received an open operation, and 17 patients received endovascular repair. Five variables were found significant upon multivariate analysis (P < .05), and four of these five: preoperative shock, loss of consciousness, cardiac arrest and age were modeled via multiple logistic regression and an ANN. These predictive models were compared against the Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS). All models were assessed by generation of receiver operating characteristic curves and Actual vs. Predicted outcomes plots, with area under the curve (AUC) and Pearson r2 value as the primary measures of discriminant ability. Results Of the 125 patients, 53 (42%) did not survive to discharge. Five preoperative factors were significant (P < .05) independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in multivariate analysis: advanced age, renal disease, loss of consciousness, cardiac arrest and shock, though renal disease was excluded from the models. The sequential accumulation of zero to four of these risk factors progressively increased overall mortality rate, from 11% to 16% to 44% to 76% to 89% (Age ≥ 70 considered a risk factor). Algorithms derived from multiple logistic regression, ANN and GAS models generated AUC values of

  4. Prediction of mortality from respiratory distress among long-term mechanically ventilated patients.

    PubMed

    Boverman, Gregory; Genc, Sahika

    2014-01-01

    With the advent of inexpensive storage, pervasive networking, and wireless devices, it is now possible to store a large proportion of the medical data that is collected in the intensive care unit (ICU). These data sets can be used as valuable resources for developing and validating predictive analytics. In this report, we focus on the problem of prediction of mortality from respiratory distress among long-term mechanically ventilated patients using data from the publicly-available MIMIC-II database. Rather than only reporting p-values for univariate or multivariate regression, as in previous work, we seek to generate sparsest possible model that will predict mortality. We find that the presence of severe sepsis is highly associated with mortality. We also find that variables related to respiration rate have more predictive accuracy than variables related to oxygenation status. Ultimately, we have developed a model which predicts mortality from respiratory distress in the ICU with a cross-validated area-under-the-curve (AUC) of approximately 0.74. Four methodologies are utilized for model dimensionality-reduction: univariate logistic regression, multivariate logistic regression, decision trees, and penalized logistic regression.

  5. 30-day Mortality after Bariatric Surgery: Independently Adjudicated Causes of Death in the Longitudinal Assessment of Bariatric Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Mark D.; Patterson, Emma; Wahed, Abdus S.; Belle, Steven H.; Berk, Paul D.; Courcoulas, Anita P.; Dakin, Gregory F.; Flum, David R.; Machado, Laura; Mitchell, James E.; Pender, John; Pomp, Alfons; Pories, Walter; Ramanathan, Ramesh; Schrope, Beth; Staten, Myrlene; Ude, Akuezunkpa; Wolfe, Bruce M.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose Mortality following bariatric surgery is a rare event in contemporary series, making it difficult for any single center to draw meaningful conclusions as to cause of death. Nevertheless, much of the published mortality data come from single center case series and reviews of administrative databases. These sources tend to produce lower mortality estimates than those obtained from controlled clinical trials. Furthermore, information about the causes of death and how they were determined is not always available. The aim of the present report is to describe in detail all deaths occurring within 30-days of surgery in the Longitudinal Assessment of Bariatric Surgery (LABS). Methods LABS is a 10-center observational cohort study of bariatric surgical outcomes. Data were collected prospectively for bariatric surgeries performed between March 2005 and April 2009. All deaths occurring within 30-days of surgery were identified, and cause of death assigned by an independent Adjudication Subcommittee, blinded to operating surgeon and site. Results 6118 patients underwent primary bariatric surgery. 18 deaths (0.3%) occurred within 30-days of surgery. The most common cause of death was sepsis (33% of deaths), followed by cardiac causes (28%) and pulmonary embolism (17%). For one patient cause of death could not be determined despite examination of all available information. Conclusions This study confirms the low 30-day mortality rate following bariatric surgery. The recognized complications of anastomotic leak, cardiac events, and pulmonary emboli accounted for the majority of 30-day deaths. PMID:21866378

  6. Validation of the DECAF score to predict hospital mortality in acute exacerbations of COPD

    PubMed Central

    Echevarria, C; Steer, J; Heslop-Marshall, K; Stenton, SC; Hickey, PM; Hughes, R; Wijesinghe, M; Harrison, RN; Steen, N; Simpson, AJ; Gibson, GJ; Bourke, SC

    2016-01-01

    Background Hospitalisation due to acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) is common, and subsequent mortality high. The DECAF score was derived for accurate prediction of mortality and risk stratification to inform patient care. We aimed to validate the DECAF score, internally and externally, and to compare its performance to other predictive tools. Methods The study took place in the two hospitals within the derivation study (internal validation) and in four additional hospitals (external validation) between January 2012 and May 2014. Consecutive admissions were identified by screening admissions and searching coding records. Admission clinical data, including DECAF indices, and mortality were recorded. The prognostic value of DECAF and other scores were assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve. Results In the internal and external validation cohorts, 880 and 845 patients were recruited. Mean age was 73.1 (SD 10.3) years, 54.3% were female, and mean (SD) FEV1 45.5 (18.3) per cent predicted. Overall mortality was 7.7%. The DECAF AUROC curve for inhospital mortality was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.87) in the internal cohort and 0.82 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.87) in the external cohort, and was superior to other prognostic scores for inhospital or 30-day mortality. Conclusions DECAF is a robust predictor of mortality, using indices routinely available on admission. Its generalisability is supported by consistent strong performance; it can identify low-risk patients (DECAF 0–1) potentially suitable for Hospital at Home or early supported discharge services, and high-risk patients (DECAF 3–6) for escalation planning or appropriate early palliation. Trial registration number UKCRN ID 14214. PMID:26769015

  7. Childhood-Onset Disease Predicts Mortality in an Adult Cohort of Patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

    PubMed Central

    Hersh, Aimee O.; Trupin, Laura; Yazdany, Jinoos; Panopalis, Peter; Julian, Laura; Katz, Patricia; Criswell, Lindsey A.; Yelin, Edward

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine childhood-onset disease as a predictor of mortality in a cohort of adult patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods Data were derived from the University of California Lupus Outcomes Study, a longitudinal cohort of 957 adult subjects with SLE that includes 98 subjects with childhood-onset SLE. Baseline and follow-up data were obtained via telephone interviews conducted between 2002-2007. The number of deaths during 5 years of follow-up was determined and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for the cohort, and across age groups, were calculated. Kaplan-Meier life table analysis was used to compare mortality rates between childhood (defined as SLE diagnosis <18 years) and adult-onset SLE. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine predictors of mortality. Results During the median follow-up period of 48 months, 72 deaths (7.5% of subjects) occurred, including 9 (12.5%) among those with childhood-onset SLE. The overall SMR was 2.5 (CI 2.0-3.2). In Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, after adjusting for age, childhood-onset subjects were at increased risk for mortality throughout the follow-up period (p<0.0001). In a multivariate model adjusting for age, disease duration and other covariates, childhood-onset SLE was independently associated with an increased mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.3-7.3), as was low socioeconomic status measured by education (HR: 1.9; 95% CI 1.1-3.2) and end stage renal disease (HR: 2.1; 95% CI 1.1-4.0). Conclusion Childhood-onset SLE was a strong predictor of mortality in this cohort. Interventions are needed to prevent early mortality in this population. PMID:20235215

  8. Progression of Aortic Arch Calcification Over 1 Year Is an Independent Predictor of Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Mi Jung; Shin, Dong Ho; Kim, Seung Jun; Oh, Hyung Jung; Yoo, Dong Eun; Ko, Kwang Il; Koo, Hyang Mo; Kim, Chan Ho; Doh, Fa Mee; Park, Jung Tak; Han, Seung Hyeok; Yoo, Tae-Hyun; Choi, Kyu Hun; Kang, Shin-Wook

    2012-01-01

    Backgrounds and Aims The presence and progression of vascular calcification have been demonstrated as important risk factors for mortality in dialysis patients. However, since the majority of subjects included in most previous studies were hemodialysis patients, limited information was available in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of aortic arch calcification (AoAC) and prognostic value of AoAC progression in PD patients. Methods We prospectively determined AoAC by chest X-ray at PD start and after 12 months, and evaluated the impact of AoAC progression on mortality in 415 incident PD patients. Results Of 415 patients, 169 patients (40.7%) had AoAC at baseline with a mean of 18.1±11.2%. The presence of baseline AoAC was an independent predictor of all-cause [Hazard ratio (HR): 2.181, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.336–3.561, P = 0.002] and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 3.582, 95% CI: 1.577–8.132, P = 0.002). Among 363 patients with follow-up chest X-rays at 12 months after PD start, the proportion of patients with AoAC progression was significantly higher in patients with baseline AoAC (64.2 vs. 5.3%, P<0.001). Moreover, all-cause and cardiovascular death rates were significantly higher in the progression groups than in the non-progression group (P<0.001). Multivariate Cox analysis revealed that AoAC progression was an independent predictor for all-cause (HR: 2.625, 95% CI: 1.150–5.991, P = 0.022) and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 4.008, 95% CI: 1.079–14.890, P = 0.038) in patients with AoAC at baseline. Conclusions The presence and progression of AoAC assessed by chest X-ray were independently associated with unfavorable outcomes in incident PD patients. Regular follow-up by chest X-ray could be a simple and useful method to stratify mortality risk in these patients. PMID:23144974

  9. Multiple Brain Abscesses due to Streptococcus anginosus: Prediction of Mortality by an Imaging Severity Index Score.

    PubMed

    Kragha, K O

    2016-01-01

    An elderly patient with altered mental status, brain abscesses, ventriculitis, and empyemas died of septic shock and brain abscesses secondary to Streptococcus anginosus despite aggressive treatment. An imaging severity index score with a better prognostic value than the Glasgow coma scale predicted mortality in this patient. PMID:27034878

  10. Multiple Brain Abscesses due to Streptococcus anginosus: Prediction of Mortality by an Imaging Severity Index Score

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    An elderly patient with altered mental status, brain abscesses, ventriculitis, and empyemas died of septic shock and brain abscesses secondary to Streptococcus anginosus despite aggressive treatment. An imaging severity index score with a better prognostic value than the Glasgow coma scale predicted mortality in this patient. PMID:27034878

  11. Development and Validation of a Clinical Risk-Assessment Tool Predictive of All-Cause Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Bello, Ghalib A; Dumancas, Gerard G; Gennings, Chris

    2015-01-01

    In clinical settings, the diagnosis of medical conditions is often aided by measurement of various serum biomarkers through the use of laboratory tests. These biomarkers provide information about different aspects of a patient’s health and overall function of multiple organ systems. We have developed a statistical procedure that condenses the information from a variety of health biomarkers into a composite index, which could be used as a risk score for predicting all-cause mortality. It could also be viewed as a holistic measure of overall physiological health status. This health status metric is computed as a function of standardized values of each biomarker measurement, weighted according to their empirically determined relative strength of association with mortality. The underlying risk model was developed using the biomonitoring and mortality data of a large sample of US residents obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and the National Death Index (NDI). Biomarker concentration levels were standardized using spline-based Cox regression models, and optimization algorithms were used to estimate the weights. The predictive accuracy of the tool was optimized by bootstrap aggregation. We also demonstrate how stacked generalization, a machine learning technique, can be used for further enhancement of the prediction power. The index was shown to be highly predictive of all-cause mortality and long-term outcomes for specific health conditions. It also exhibited a robust association with concurrent chronic conditions, recent hospital utilization, and current health status as assessed by self-rated health. PMID:26380550

  12. Level of incongruence during cardiac rehabilitation and prediction of future CVD-related hospitalizations plus all-cause mortality.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Fiorenza A; Stauber, Stefanie; Wilhelm, Matthias; Znoj, Hansjörg; von Känel, Roland

    2015-01-01

    Independent of traditional risk factors, psychosocial risk factors increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Studies in the field of psychotherapy have shown that the construct of incongruence (meaning a discrepancy between desired and achieved goals) affects the outcome of therapy. We prospectively measured the impact of incongruence in patients after undergoing a cardiac rehabilitation program. We examined 198 CVD patients enrolled in a 8-12 week comprehensive cardiac rehabilitation program. Patients completed the German short version of the Incongruence Questionnaire and the SF-36 Health Questionnaire to measure quality of life (QoL) at discharge of rehabilitation. Endpoints at follow-up were CVD-related hospitalizations plus all-cause mortality. During a mean follow-up period of 54.3 months, 29 patients experienced a CVD-related hospitalization and 3 patients died. Incongruence at discharge of rehabilitation was independent of traditional risk factors a significant predictor for CVD-related hospitalizations plus all-cause mortality (HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.29-3.20, p = .002). We also found a significant interaction of incongruence with mental QoL (HR .96, 95% CI .92-.99, p = .027), i.e. incongruence predicted poor prognosis if QoL was low (p = .017), but not if QoL was high (p = .74). Incongruence at discharge predicted future CVD-related hospitalizations plus all-cause mortality and mental QoL moderated this relationship. Therefore, incongruence should be considered for effective treatment planning and outcome measurement.

  13. Delta-He: a novel marker of inflammation predicting mortality and ESA response in peritoneal dialysis patients

    PubMed Central

    Danielson, Kristin; Beshara, Soheir; Qureshi, Abdul Rashid; Heimbürger, Olof; Lindholm, Bengt; Hansson, Magnus; Hylander, Britta; Germanis, Guna; Stenvinkel, Peter; Barany, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Background Inflammation impairs erythropoiesis, iron availability and is associated with a higher mortality risk in patients with end-stage renal disease. We studied the associations between Delta-He [the difference between the reticulocyte haemoglobin content (Ret-He) and erythrocyte haemoglobin content], a suggested marker of iron availability, and markers of inflammation, iron status, response to erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) and mortality in prevalent peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Methods Eighty-two PD patients were followed weekly for 12 weeks with an additional follow-up of 36 months. Delta-He, Ret-He and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) were measured weekly and interleukin-6 (IL-6) and iron markers every fourth week. Mortality risk was assessed by Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for potential confounding factors. The relationships between ESA response, inflammatory markers, iron markers and Delta-He were evaluated in the PD patients. The relationship between Delta-He and iron markers was analysed in 87 healthy subjects. Results Delta-He correlated with IL-6 (rho = 0.48, P < 0.001), hs-CRP (rho = 0.36, P < 0.001) and ESA hyporesponsivess index (EHRI; rho = −0.44, P < 0.001) in the PD patients. Delta-He did not correlate with iron markers in PD patients nor in healthy subjects. The mean Delta-He levels were significantly different between the tertiles of EHRI (P < 0.01). Delta-He was associated with all-cause mortality risk in PD patients after adjusting for age, gender, hs-CRP, comorbidity and nutritional status [OR 0.70 (0.51–0.96), P < 0.05]. Conclusions Delta-He independently predicts all-cause mortality in PD patients after adjusting for potential confounders and is a predictor of ESA response in PD patients. PMID:25852889

  14. Growth rate predicts mortality of Abies concolor in both burned and unburned stands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Mutch, Linda S.; Johnson, Veronica G.; Esperanza, Annie M.; Parsons, David J.

    2003-01-01

    Tree mortality is often the result of both long-term and short-term stress. Growth rate, an indicator of long-term stress, is often used to estimate probability of death in unburned stands. In contrast, probability of death in burned stands is modeled as a function of short-term disturbance severity. We sought to narrow this conceptual gap by determining (i) whether growth rate, in addition to crown scorch, is a predictor of mortality in burned stands and (ii) whether a single, simple model could predict tree death in both burned and unburned stands. Observations of 2622 unburned and 688 burned Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. (white fir) in the Sierra Nevada of California, U.S.A., indicated that growth rate was a significant predictor of mortality in the unburned stands, while both crown scorch and radial growth were significant predictors of mortality in the burned stands. Applying the burned stand model to unburned stands resulted in an overestimation of the unburned stand mortality rate. While failing to create a general model of tree death for A. concolor, our findings underscore the idea that similar processes may affect mortality in disturbed and undisturbed stands.

  15. Model independent predictions for rare top decays with weak coupling

    SciTech Connect

    Datta, Alakabha; Duraisamy, Murugeswaran

    2010-04-01

    Measurements at B factories have provided important constraints on new physics in several rare processes involving the B meson. New physics, if present in the b quark sector may also affect the top sector. In an effective Lagrangian approach, we write down operators, where effects in the bottom and the top sector are related. Assuming the couplings of the operators to be of the same size as the weak coupling g of the standard model and taking into account constraints on new physics from the bottom sector as well as top branching ratios, we make predictions for the rare top decays t{yields}cV, where V={gamma}, Z. We find branching fractions for these decays within possible reach of the LHC. Predictions are also made for t{yields}sW.

  16. Physical Stress Echocardiography: Prediction of Mortality and Cardiac Events in Patients with Exercise Test showing Ischemia.

    PubMed

    Araujo, Ana Carla Pereira de; Santos, Bruno F de Oliveira; Calasans, Flavia Ricci; Pinto, Ibraim M Francisco; Oliveira, Daniel Pio de; Melo, Luiza Dantas; Andrade, Stephanie Macedo; Tavares, Irlaneide da Silva; Sousa, Antonio Carlos Sobral; Oliveira, Joselina Luzia Menezes

    2014-11-01

    Background: Studies have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of physical stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease. However, the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia is limited. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of physical stress echocardiography in the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort in which 866 consecutive patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia, and who underwent physical stress echocardiography were studied. Patients were divided into two groups: with physical stress echocardiography negative (G1) or positive (G2) for myocardial ischemia. The endpoints analyzed were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events, defined as cardiac death and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Results: G2 comprised 205 patients (23.7%). During the mean 85.6 ± 15.0-month follow-up, there were 26 deaths, of which six were cardiac deaths, and 25 non-fatal myocardial infarction cases. The independent predictors of mortality were: age, diabetes mellitus, and positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.20 - 6.01; p = 0.016). The independent predictors of major cardiac events were: age, previous coronary artery disease, positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 - 6.53; p = 0.022) and absence of a 10% increase in ejection fraction. All-cause mortality and the incidence of major cardiac events were significantly higher in G2 (p < 0. 001 and p = 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: Physical stress echocardiography provides additional prognostic information in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia.Fundamento: Estudos têm demonstrado a acurácia diagnóstica e o valor prognóstico da ecocardiografia com estresse f

  17. Physical Stress Echocardiography: Prediction of Mortality and Cardiac Events in Patients with Exercise Test showing Ischemia.

    PubMed

    Araujo, Ana Carla Pereira de; Santos, Bruno F de Oliveira; Calasans, Flavia Ricci; Pinto, Ibraim M Francisco; Oliveira, Daniel Pio de; Melo, Luiza Dantas; Andrade, Stephanie Macedo; Tavares, Irlaneide da Silva; Sousa, Antonio Carlos Sobral; Oliveira, Joselina Luzia Menezes

    2014-11-01

    Background: Studies have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of physical stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease. However, the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia is limited. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of physical stress echocardiography in the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort in which 866 consecutive patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia, and who underwent physical stress echocardiography were studied. Patients were divided into two groups: with physical stress echocardiography negative (G1) or positive (G2) for myocardial ischemia. The endpoints analyzed were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events, defined as cardiac death and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Results: G2 comprised 205 patients (23.7%). During the mean 85.6 ± 15.0-month follow-up, there were 26 deaths, of which six were cardiac deaths, and 25 non-fatal myocardial infarction cases. The independent predictors of mortality were: age, diabetes mellitus, and positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.20 - 6.01; p = 0.016). The independent predictors of major cardiac events were: age, previous coronary artery disease, positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 - 6.53; p = 0.022) and absence of a 10% increase in ejection fraction. All-cause mortality and the incidence of major cardiac events were significantly higher in G2 (p < 0. 001 and p = 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: Physical stress echocardiography provides additional prognostic information in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia.Fundamento: Estudos têm demonstrado a acurácia diagnóstica e o valor prognóstico da ecocardiografia com estresse f

  18. Morbidity and mortality predictivity of nutritional assessment tools in the postoperative care unit

    PubMed Central

    Özbilgin, Şule; Hancı, Volkan; Ömür, Dilek; Özbilgin, Mücahit; Tosun, Mine; Yurtlu, Serhan; Küçükgüçlü, Semih; Arkan, Atalay

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The aim was to evaluate the nutritional situation of patients admitted to the Postoperative Acute Care Unit using classic methods of objective anthropometry, systemic evaluation methods, and Nutrition Risk in Critically Ill (NUTRIC) score, and to compare them as a predictor of morbidity and mortality. At admission to the postoperative care unit, patients undergoing various surgeries were assessed for the following items: Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS)-2002, Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), and NUTRIC score, anthropometric measurements, serum total protein, serum albumin, and lymphocyte count. Patients were monitored for postoperative complications until death or discharge. Correlation of complications with these parameters was also analyzed. A total of 152 patients were included in the study. In this study a positive correlation was determined between mortality and NRS-2002, SGA, CCI, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation , Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment, and NUTRIC score, whereas a negative correlation was determined between mortality and NRI. There was a correlation between NUTRIC score and pneumonia, development of atrial fibrillation, delirium, renal failure, inotrope use, and duration of mechanical ventilation. In our study group of postoperative patients, MNA had no predictive properties for any complication, whereas SGA had no predictive properties for any complications other than duration of hospital stay and mortality. The NUTRIC score is an important indicator of mortality and morbidity in postoperative surgical patients. NRI correlated with many postoperative complications, and though SGA and NRS were correlated with mortality, they were not correlated with the majority of complications. MNA was determined not to have any correlation with any complication, mortality, and duration of hospital stay in our patient group. PMID

  19. Prediction of Mortality in Nonagenarians Following the Surgical Repair of Hip Fractures

    PubMed Central

    Fansa, Ashraf; Ebraheim, Nabil

    2016-01-01

    Background The purpose of this study is to report on the mortality of nonagenarians who underwent surgical treatment for a hip fracture, specifically in regards to preexisting comorbidities. Furthermore, we assessed the effectiveness of the Deyo score in predicting such mortality. Methods Thirty-nine patients over the age of 90 who underwent surgical repair of a hip fracture were retrospectively analyzed. Twenty-six patients (66.7%) suffered femoral neck fractures, while the remaining 13 (33.3%) presented with trochanteric type fractures. Patient charts were examined to determine previously diagnosed patient comorbidities as well as living arrangements and mobility before and after surgery. Results Deyo index scores did not demonstrate statistically significant correlations with postoperative mortality or functional outcomes. The hazard of in-hospital mortality was found to be 91% (p = 0.036) and 86% (p = 0.05) less in patients without a history of congestive heart failure (CHF) and chronic pulmonary disease (CPD), respectively. Additionally, the hazard of 90-day mortality was 88% (p = 0.01) and 81% (p = 0.024) less in patients without a history of dementia and CPD, respectively. The hazard of 1-year mortality was also found to be 75% (p = 0.01) and 80% (p = 0.01) less in patients without a history of dementia and CPD, respectively. Furthermore, dementia patients stayed in-hospital postoperatively an average of 5.3 days (p = 0.013) less than nondementia patients and only 38.5% returned to preoperative living conditions (p = 0.036). Conclusions Nonagenarians with a history of CHF and CPD have a higher risk of in-hospital mortality following the operative repair of hip fractures. CPD and dementia patients over 90 years old have higher 90-day and 1-year mortality hazards postoperatively. Dementia patients are also discharged more quickly than nondementia patients. PMID:27247737

  20. Accuracy and Calibration of Computational Approaches for Inpatient Mortality Predictive Modeling.

    PubMed

    Nakas, Christos T; Schütz, Narayan; Werners, Marcus; Leichtle, Alexander B

    2016-01-01

    Electronic Health Record (EHR) data can be a key resource for decision-making support in clinical practice in the "big data" era. The complete database from early 2012 to late 2015 involving hospital admissions to Inselspital Bern, the largest Swiss University Hospital, was used in this study, involving over 100,000 admissions. Age, sex, and initial laboratory test results were the features/variables of interest for each admission, the outcome being inpatient mortality. Computational decision support systems were utilized for the calculation of the risk of inpatient mortality. We assessed the recently proposed Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score (ALaRMS) model, and further built generalized linear models, generalized estimating equations, artificial neural networks, and decision tree systems for the predictive modeling of the risk of inpatient mortality. The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for ALaRMS marginally corresponded to the anticipated accuracy (AUC = 0.858). Penalized logistic regression methodology provided a better result (AUC = 0.872). Decision tree and neural network-based methodology provided even higher predictive performance (up to AUC = 0.912 and 0.906, respectively). Additionally, decision tree-based methods can efficiently handle Electronic Health Record (EHR) data that have a significant amount of missing records (in up to >50% of the studied features) eliminating the need for imputation in order to have complete data. In conclusion, we show that statistical learning methodology can provide superior predictive performance in comparison to existing methods and can also be production ready. Statistical modeling procedures provided unbiased, well-calibrated models that can be efficient decision support tools for predicting inpatient mortality and assigning preventive measures. PMID:27414408

  1. Accuracy and Calibration of Computational Approaches for Inpatient Mortality Predictive Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Nakas, Christos T.; Schütz, Narayan; Werners, Marcus; Leichtle, Alexander B.

    2016-01-01

    Electronic Health Record (EHR) data can be a key resource for decision-making support in clinical practice in the “big data” era. The complete database from early 2012 to late 2015 involving hospital admissions to Inselspital Bern, the largest Swiss University Hospital, was used in this study, involving over 100,000 admissions. Age, sex, and initial laboratory test results were the features/variables of interest for each admission, the outcome being inpatient mortality. Computational decision support systems were utilized for the calculation of the risk of inpatient mortality. We assessed the recently proposed Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score (ALaRMS) model, and further built generalized linear models, generalized estimating equations, artificial neural networks, and decision tree systems for the predictive modeling of the risk of inpatient mortality. The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for ALaRMS marginally corresponded to the anticipated accuracy (AUC = 0.858). Penalized logistic regression methodology provided a better result (AUC = 0.872). Decision tree and neural network-based methodology provided even higher predictive performance (up to AUC = 0.912 and 0.906, respectively). Additionally, decision tree-based methods can efficiently handle Electronic Health Record (EHR) data that have a significant amount of missing records (in up to >50% of the studied features) eliminating the need for imputation in order to have complete data. In conclusion, we show that statistical learning methodology can provide superior predictive performance in comparison to existing methods and can also be production ready. Statistical modeling procedures provided unbiased, well-calibrated models that can be efficient decision support tools for predicting inpatient mortality and assigning preventive measures. PMID:27414408

  2. Non-linear feature extraction from HRV signal for mortality prediction of ICU cardiovascular patient.

    PubMed

    Karimi Moridani, Mohammad; Setarehdan, Seyed Kamaledin; Motie Nasrabadi, Ali; Hajinasrollah, Esmaeil

    2016-01-01

    Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are at risk of in-ICU morbidities and mortality, making specific systems for identifying at-risk patients a necessity for improving clinical care. This study presents a new method for predicting in-hospital mortality using heart rate variability (HRV) collected from the times of a patient's ICU stay. In this paper, a HRV time series processing based method is proposed for mortality prediction of ICU cardiovascular patients. HRV signals were obtained measuring R-R time intervals. A novel method, named return map, is then developed that reveals useful information from the HRV time series. This study also proposed several features that can be extracted from the return map, including the angle between two vectors, the area of triangles formed by successive points, shortest distance to 45° line and their various combinations. Finally, a thresholding technique is proposed to extract the risk period and to predict mortality. The data used to evaluate the proposed algorithm obtained from 80 cardiovascular ICU patients, from the first 48 h of the first ICU stay of 40 males and 40 females. This study showed that the angle feature has on average a sensitivity of 87.5% (with 12 false alarms), the area feature has on average a sensitivity of 89.58% (with 10 false alarms), the shortest distance feature has on average a sensitivity of 85.42% (with 14 false alarms) and, finally, the combined feature has on average a sensitivity of 92.71% (with seven false alarms). The results showed that the last half an hour before the patient's death is very informative for diagnosing the patient's condition and to save his/her life. These results confirm that it is possible to predict mortality based on the features introduced in this paper, relying on the variations of the HRV dynamic characteristics.

  3. Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB II) Scoring System in Prediction of Mortality in Premature Babies

    PubMed Central

    Ezz-Eldin, Zahraa Mohamed; Hamid, Tamer A. Abdel; Nabil, Hossam El-Din

    2015-01-01

    Background Clinical Risk Index for Babies scoring system (CRIB II) score is a recently developed tool to predict initial risk of mortality amongst low birth weight babies, the utility of which is scarce in many developing countries. Objective To assess the efficiency of CRIB II score as a tool to predict the risk for neonatal mortality among the LBW babies admitted to neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) at a tertiary care facility Kasr El-Aini paediatric hospital, Cairo, Egypt. Materials and Methods Prospective cohort study design where 113 neonates, admitted during the first 24 hours to the NICU of Kasr El-Aini Hospital, from November 2013 till May 2014 were included. On admission, history taking, neonatal examination, arterial blood gas analysis and variables of CRIB II score were done. Subjects were followed up from admission till discharge or death. Results Male to female ratio was 1.1:1. Gestational age ranged from 25-32 weeks, the birth weight ranged from 700-1500 gm with mean of 1134.5 (± 202). CRIB II score ranged from 1-19 with a mean of 9.9 (± 4.0). The total mortality in the included cohort was 34.5% (31/113). Significant positive correlations were found between gestational age, birth weight, temperature, excess base, CRIB II score and the occurrence of mortality and with progressive increase in mortality with increasing CRIB II score (p=0.001). CRIB II score ≥ 11, gestational age ≤ 28 and birth weight ≤ 1100 were all found to be significantly associated with neonatal mortality. Area under ROC curve for CRIB II, gestational age and birth weight were found to be (0.968, 0.900 and 0.834) respectively. CRIB II score with cutoff point of ≥ 11 was the most sensitive (94.9%) with the predictive value (74.0%) and specificity (82.4%) compared to birth weight and gestational age. CRIB II score showed good calibration to predict neonatal mortality as demonstrated with Hosmer-lemeshow goodness of fit test (p= 0.952). Conclusion CRIB II score is a valid

  4. Independence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephenson, Margaret E.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses the four planes of development and the periods of creation and crystallization within each plane. Identifies the type of independence that should be achieved by the end of the first two planes of development. Maintains that it is through individual work on the environment that one achieves independence. (KB)

  5. Psychological Language on Twitter Predicts County-Level Heart Disease Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Eichstaedt, Johannes C.; Schwartz, Hansen Andrew; Kern, Margaret L.; Park, Gregory; Labarthe, Darwin R.; Merchant, Raina M.; Jha, Sneha; Agrawal, Megha; Dziurzynski, Lukasz A.; Sap, Maarten; Weeg, Christopher; Larson, Emily E.; Ungar, Lyle H.; Seligman, Martin E. P.

    2015-01-01

    Hostility and chronic stress are known risk factors for heart disease, but they are costly to assess on a large scale. We used language expressed on Twitter to characterize community-level psychological correlates of age-adjusted mortality from atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD). Language patterns reflecting negative social relationships, disengagement, and negative emotions—especially anger—emerged as risk factors; positive emotions and psychological engagement emerged as protective factors. Most correlations remained significant after controlling for income and education. A cross-sectional regression model based only on Twitter language predicted AHD mortality significantly better than did a model that combined 10 common demographic, socioeconomic, and health risk factors, including smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. Capturing community psychological characteristics through social media is feasible, and these characteristics are strong markers of cardiovascular mortality at the community level. PMID:25605707

  6. Psychological language on Twitter predicts county-level heart disease mortality.

    PubMed

    Eichstaedt, Johannes C; Schwartz, Hansen Andrew; Kern, Margaret L; Park, Gregory; Labarthe, Darwin R; Merchant, Raina M; Jha, Sneha; Agrawal, Megha; Dziurzynski, Lukasz A; Sap, Maarten; Weeg, Christopher; Larson, Emily E; Ungar, Lyle H; Seligman, Martin E P

    2015-02-01

    Hostility and chronic stress are known risk factors for heart disease, but they are costly to assess on a large scale. We used language expressed on Twitter to characterize community-level psychological correlates of age-adjusted mortality from atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD). Language patterns reflecting negative social relationships, disengagement, and negative emotions-especially anger-emerged as risk factors; positive emotions and psychological engagement emerged as protective factors. Most correlations remained significant after controlling for income and education. A cross-sectional regression model based only on Twitter language predicted AHD mortality significantly better than did a model that combined 10 common demographic, socioeconomic, and health risk factors, including smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. Capturing community psychological characteristics through social media is feasible, and these characteristics are strong markers of cardiovascular mortality at the community level.

  7. The Kind of Student You Were in Elementary School Predicts Mortality.

    PubMed

    Spengler, Marion; Roberts, Brent W; Lüdtke, Oliver; Martin, Romain; Brunner, Martin

    2016-08-01

    We examined the association of self-reported and teacher-rated student characteristics assessed at the end of primary school with all-cause mortality assessed through age 52. Data stem from a representative sample of students from Luxembourg assessed in 1968 (N = 2,543; M = 11.9 years, SD = 0.6; 49.9% female; N = 166 participants died). Results from logistic regression analyses showed that the self-reported responsible student scale (OR = .81; CI = [.70; .95]) and the teacher rating of studiousness (OR = .80; CI = [.67; .96]) were predictive for all-cause mortality even after controlling for IQ, parental SES, and sex. These findings indicate that both observer-rated and self-reported student behaviors are important life-course predictors for mortality and are perhaps more important than childhood IQ. PMID:25941045

  8. CURB-65 score predicted mortality in community-acquired pneumonia better than IDSA/ATS minor criteria in a low-mortality-rate setting.

    PubMed

    Guo, Q; Li, H-Y; Zhou, Y-P; Li, M; Chen, X-K; Liu, H; Peng, H-L; Yu, H-Q; Chen, X; Liu, N; Liang, L-H; Zhao, Q-Z; Jiang, M

    2012-12-01

    The CURB-65 scoring system performs well at identifying patients with pneumonia who have a low risk of death. Whether it predicts mortality in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) better than the 2007 Infectious Disease Society of America (IDSA)/American Thoracic Society (ATS) minor criteria in low-mortality-rate settings is not clear. The purpose of this study was to determine the hypothesis.A total of 1,230 adult inpatients admitted to our hospital from 2005 to 2009 for CAP were reviewed retrospectively.The hospital mortality was 1.3 %. Percentage mortality increased significantly with CURB-65 score and the increasing number of IDSA/ATS minor criteria present. The number of CURB-65 criteria or IDSA/ATS minor criteria present had significant increased odds ratios for mortality of 7.547 and 2.711, respectively. The sensitivities of a CURB-65 score of ≥ 3 and the presence of ≥ 3 minor criteria in predicting mortality was 25 % and 37.5 %, which increased to 75 % and 62.5 %, while the cut-off values reduced to ≥ 2 criteria, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for CURB-65 was greater than the corresponding area for IDSA/ATS minor criteria in predicting hospital mortality (0.915 vs. 0.805, p = 0.0091).CURB-65 score predicted hospital mortality better than IDSA/ATS minor criteria, and a CURB-65 score of ≥ 2 or the presence of ≥ 2 minor criteria might be more valuable cut-off values for "severe" CAP in a low-mortality-rate setting.

  9. Practical prediction model for the risk of 2-year mortality of individuals in the general population.

    PubMed

    Goldfarb-Rumyantzev, Alexander; Gautam, Shiva; Brown, Robert S

    2016-04-01

    This study proposed to validate a prediction model and risk-stratification tool of 2-year mortality rates of individuals in the general population suitable for office practice use. A risk indicator (R) derived from data in the literature was based on only 6 variables: to calculate R for an individual, starting with 0, for each year of age above 60, add 0.14; for a male, add 0.9; for diabetes mellitus, add 0.7; for albuminuria > 30 mg/g of creatinine, add 0.7; for stage ≥ 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), add 0.9; for cardiovascular disease (CVD), add 1.4; or for both CKD and CVD, add 1.7. We developed a univariate logistic regression model predicting 2-year individual mortality rates. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data set (1999-2004 with deaths through 2006) was used as the target for validation. These 12,515 subjects had a mean age of 48.9 ± 18.1 years, 48% males, 9.5% diabetes, 11.7% albuminuria, 6.8% CVD, 5.4% CKD, and 2.8% both CKD and CVD. Using the risk indicator R alone to predict mortality demonstrated good performance with area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.84. Dividing subjects into low-risk (R=0-1.0), low intermediate risk (R > 1.0-3.0), high intermediate risk (R > 3.0-5.0) or high-risk (R > 5.0) categories predicted 2-year mortality rates of 0.52%, 1.44%, 5.19% and 15.24%, respectively, by the prediction model compared with actual mortality rates of 0.29%, 2.48%, 5.13% and 13.40%, respectively. We have validated a model of risk stratification using easily identified clinical characteristics to predict 2-year mortality rates of individuals in the general population. The model demonstrated performance adequate for its potential use for clinical practice and research decisions.

  10. Risk Prediction of One-Year Mortality in Patients with Cardiac Arrhythmias Using Random Survival Forest

    PubMed Central

    Miao, Fen; Cai, Yun-Peng; Zhang, Yu-Xiao; Li, Ye; Zhang, Yuan-Ting

    2015-01-01

    Existing models for predicting mortality based on traditional Cox proportional hazard approach (CPH) often have low prediction accuracy. This paper aims to develop a clinical risk model with good accuracy for predicting 1-year mortality in cardiac arrhythmias patients using random survival forest (RSF), a robust approach for survival analysis. 10,488 cardiac arrhythmias patients available in the public MIMIC II clinical database were investigated, with 3,452 deaths occurring within 1-year followups. Forty risk factors including demographics and clinical and laboratory information and antiarrhythmic agents were analyzed as potential predictors of all-cause mortality. RSF was adopted to build a comprehensive survival model and a simplified risk model composed of 14 top risk factors. The built comprehensive model achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.81 measured by c-statistic with 10-fold cross validation. The simplified risk model also achieved a good accuracy of 0.799. Both results outperformed traditional CPH (which achieved a c-statistic of 0.733 for the comprehensive model and 0.718 for the simplified model). Moreover, various factors are observed to have nonlinear impact on cardiac arrhythmias prognosis. As a result, RSF based model which took nonlinearity into account significantly outperformed traditional Cox proportional hazard model and has great potential to be a more effective approach for survival analysis. PMID:26379761

  11. Risk Prediction of One-Year Mortality in Patients with Cardiac Arrhythmias Using Random Survival Forest.

    PubMed

    Miao, Fen; Cai, Yun-Peng; Zhang, Yu-Xiao; Li, Ye; Zhang, Yuan-Ting

    2015-01-01

    Existing models for predicting mortality based on traditional Cox proportional hazard approach (CPH) often have low prediction accuracy. This paper aims to develop a clinical risk model with good accuracy for predicting 1-year mortality in cardiac arrhythmias patients using random survival forest (RSF), a robust approach for survival analysis. 10,488 cardiac arrhythmias patients available in the public MIMIC II clinical database were investigated, with 3,452 deaths occurring within 1-year followups. Forty risk factors including demographics and clinical and laboratory information and antiarrhythmic agents were analyzed as potential predictors of all-cause mortality. RSF was adopted to build a comprehensive survival model and a simplified risk model composed of 14 top risk factors. The built comprehensive model achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.81 measured by c-statistic with 10-fold cross validation. The simplified risk model also achieved a good accuracy of 0.799. Both results outperformed traditional CPH (which achieved a c-statistic of 0.733 for the comprehensive model and 0.718 for the simplified model). Moreover, various factors are observed to have nonlinear impact on cardiac arrhythmias prognosis. As a result, RSF based model which took nonlinearity into account significantly outperformed traditional Cox proportional hazard model and has great potential to be a more effective approach for survival analysis.

  12. Evaluating the predictive performance of empirical estimators of natural mortality rate using information on over 200 fish species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Then, Amy Y.; Hoenig, John M; Hall, Norman G.; Hewitt, David A.

    2015-01-01

    Many methods have been developed in the last 70 years to predict the natural mortality rate, M, of a stock based on empirical evidence from comparative life history studies. These indirect or empirical methods are used in most stock assessments to (i) obtain estimates of M in the absence of direct information, (ii) check on the reasonableness of a direct estimate of M, (iii) examine the range of plausible M estimates for the stock under consideration, and (iv) define prior distributions for Bayesian analyses. The two most cited empirical methods have appeared in the literature over 2500 times to date. Despite the importance of these methods, there is no consensus in the literature on how well these methods work in terms of prediction error or how their performance may be ranked. We evaluate estimators based on various combinations of maximum age (tmax), growth parameters, and water temperature by seeing how well they reproduce >200 independent, direct estimates of M. We use tenfold cross-validation to estimate the prediction error of the estimators and to rank their performance. With updated and carefully reviewed data, we conclude that a tmax-based estimator performs the best among all estimators evaluated. The tmax-based estimators in turn perform better than the Alverson–Carney method based on tmax and the von Bertalanffy K coefficient, Pauly's method based on growth parameters and water temperature and methods based just on K. It is possible to combine two independent methods by computing a weighted mean but the improvement over the tmax-based methods is slight. Based on cross-validation prediction error, model residual patterns, model parsimony, and biological considerations, we recommend the use of a tmax-based estimator (M=4.899t−0.916max, prediction error = 0.32) when possible and a growth-based method (M=4.118K0.73L−0.33∞ , prediction error = 0.6) otherwise.

  13. Application of an autoregressive integrated moving average model for predicting injury mortality in Xiamen, China

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yilan; Chen, Min; Chen, Guowei; Wu, Xiaoqing; Lin, Tianquan

    2015-01-01

    Objective Injury is currently an increasing public health problem in China. Reducing the loss due to injuries has become a main priority of public health policies. Early warning of injury mortality based on surveillance information is essential for reducing or controlling the disease burden of injuries. We conducted this study to find the possibility of applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict mortality from injuries in Xiamen. Method The monthly mortality data on injuries in Xiamen (1 January 2002 to 31 December 2013) were used to fit the ARIMA model with the conditional least-squares method. The values p, q and d in the ARIMA (p, d, q) model refer to the numbers of autoregressive lags, moving average lags and differences, respectively. The Ljung–Box test was used to measure the ‘white noise’ and residuals. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between observed and fitted values was used to evaluate the predicted accuracy of the constructed models. Results A total of 8274 injury-related deaths in Xiamen were identified during the study period; the average annual mortality rate was 40.99/100 000 persons. Three models, ARIMA (0, 1, 1), ARIMA (4, 1, 0) and ARIMA (1, 1, (2)), passed the parameter (p<0.01) and residual (p>0.05) tests, with MAPE 11.91%, 11.96% and 11.90%, respectively. We chose ARIMA (0, 1, 1) as the optimum model, the MAPE value for which was similar to that of other models but with the fewest parameters. According to the model, there would be 54 persons dying from injuries each month in Xiamen in 2014. Conclusion The ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model could be applied to predict mortality from injuries in Xiamen. PMID:26656013

  14. Modified Glasgow Coma Scale to predict mortality in febrile unconscious children.

    PubMed

    Chaturvedi, P; Kishore, M

    2001-04-01

    A prospective hospital based study was conducted in the Department of Pediatrics of the Kasturba Hospital, Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Medical Sciences, Sevagram, Wardha to predict the mortality in children admitted with fever and unconsciousness using the Modified Glasgow Coma Scale (MGCS) score. Forty eight children were admitted with fever and unconsciousness; cases of febrile convulsions, epilepsy and cerebral palsy were excluded. MGCS scores were assessed on admission and repeated at 12 hours, 24 hours, 48 hours and 72 hours after admission in each case. Diagnosis in each case was confirmed by history, examinations and investigations. All the cases were regularly followed up till death/discharge. The overall mortality was 29.1% (14/48) out of which 85% (12/14) died within the first 24 hours. Mortality was highest in the toddler age group and in patients with pyogenic meningitis. There was a significant association between death and MGCS scores on admission with a post test probability for discharge being only 10% with a score of less than 5 and 99% with a score of more than 10 respectively. MGCS scores on admission can be used to predict mortality in patients hospitalized with fever and unconsciousness. The scale is simple, easy, can be applied at bed side and does not need any investigations. Its application in developing countries with limited investigative and intensive care facilities can help the treating physician decide regarding referral and counseling the parents regarding the probable clinical outcome.

  15. Neutrophil/Lymphocyte Ratio Can Predict Postoperative Mortality in Patients with Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension

    PubMed Central

    Emin Kalkan, Mehmet; Arslan, Akin; Gezer Tas, Serpil; Koksal, Cengiz; Bekiroglu, Nural; Yildizeli, Bedrettin

    2015-01-01

    Objective: The aim of our study was to investigate clinical importance of neutrophil/ lymphocyte ratio in patients with Chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension. Methods: 125 consecutive patients with a diagnosis of Chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension were operated pulmonary thromboendarterectomy in our center between February 2011 and August 2013. 106 patients included into the study due to limitations. The patients were classified into two groups as patients discharged alive (Group 1) and those dying in the hospital (Group 2). Baseline neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio level was measured by dividing neutrophil count to lymphocyte count. Results: 84 patients (79%) were in Group 1, 22 patients (21%) were in Group 2. Patients with higher neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio in admission have a significantly higher mortality rate and postoperative pulmonary vascular resistance was found statistically significant variable to predict the mortality. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed that using a cut-off point of 2.54, admission neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio predicts mortality. Also, correlation analysis showed a significant correlation between preoperative pulmonary vascular resistance and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio. Conclusion: The neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio level may be a useful and noninvasive biomarker for operative risk stratification for mortality after pulmonary thromboendarterectomy. PMID:25753325

  16. Mortality Prediction Model of Septic Shock Patients Based on Routinely Recorded Data.

    PubMed

    Carrara, Marta; Baselli, Giuseppe; Ferrario, Manuela

    2015-01-01

    We studied the problem of mortality prediction in two datasets, the first composed of 23 septic shock patients and the second composed of 73 septic subjects selected from the public database MIMIC-II. For each patient we derived hemodynamic variables, laboratory results, and clinical information of the first 48 hours after shock onset and we performed univariate and multivariate analyses to predict mortality in the following 7 days. The results show interesting features that individually identify significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors and features which gain importance only when considered together with the others in a multivariate regression model. This preliminary study on two small septic shock populations represents a novel contribution towards new personalized models for an integration of multiparameter patient information to improve critical care management of shock patients.

  17. Mortality Prediction Model of Septic Shock Patients Based on Routinely Recorded Data

    PubMed Central

    Carrara, Marta; Baselli, Giuseppe; Ferrario, Manuela

    2015-01-01

    We studied the problem of mortality prediction in two datasets, the first composed of 23 septic shock patients and the second composed of 73 septic subjects selected from the public database MIMIC-II. For each patient we derived hemodynamic variables, laboratory results, and clinical information of the first 48 hours after shock onset and we performed univariate and multivariate analyses to predict mortality in the following 7 days. The results show interesting features that individually identify significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors and features which gain importance only when considered together with the others in a multivariate regression model. This preliminary study on two small septic shock populations represents a novel contribution towards new personalized models for an integration of multiparameter patient information to improve critical care management of shock patients. PMID:26557154

  18. Venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in adult respiratory failure: Scores for mortality prediction.

    PubMed

    Hsin, Chun-Hsien; Wu, Meng-Yu; Huang, Chung-Chi; Kao, Kuo-Chin; Lin, Pyng-Jing

    2016-06-01

    Despite a potentially effective therapy for adult respiratory failure, a general agreement on venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) has not been reached among institutions due to its invasiveness and high resource usage. To establish consensus on the timing of intervention, large ECMO organizations have published the respiratory extracorporeal membrane oxygenation survival prediction (RESP) score and the ECMOnet score, which allow users to predict hospital mortality for candidates with their pre-ECMO presentations. This study was aimed to test the predictive powers of these published scores in a medium-sized cohort enrolling adults treated with VV-ECMO for acute respiratory failure, and develop an institutional prediction model under the framework of the 3 scores if a superior predictive power could be achieved. This retrospective study included 107 adults who received VV-ECMO for severe acute respiratory failure (a PaO2/FiO2 ratio <70 mm Hg) in a tertiary referral center from 2007 to 2015. Essential demographic and clinical data were collected to calculate the RESP score, the ECMOnet score, and the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score before VV-ECMO. The predictive power of hospital mortality of each score was presented as the area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The multivariate logistic regression was used to develop an institutional prediction model. The surviving to discharge rate was 55% (n = 59). All of the 3 published scores had a real but poor predictive power of hospital mortality in this study. The AUROCs of RESP score, ECMOnet score, and SOFA score were 0.662 (P = 0.004), 0.616 (P = 0.04), and 0.667 (P = 0.003), respectively. An institutional prediction model was established from these score parameters and presented as follows: hospital mortality (Y) = -3.173 + 0.208 × (pre-ECMO SOFA score) + 0.148 × (pre-ECMO mechanical ventilation day) + 1.021

  19. Beyond Core Indicators of Retention in HIV Care: Missed Clinic Visits Are Independently Associated With All-Cause Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Mugavero, Michael J.; Westfall, Andrew O.; Cole, Stephen R.; Geng, Elvin H.; Crane, Heidi M.; Kitahata, Mari M.; Mathews, W. Christopher; Napravnik, Sonia; Eron, Joseph J.; Moore, Richard D.; Keruly, Jeanne C.; Mayer, Kenneth H.; Giordano, Thomas P.; Raper, James L.

    2014-01-01

    Background. The continuum of care is at the forefront of the domestic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) agenda, with the Institute of Medicine (IOM) and Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) recently releasing clinical core indicators. Core indicators for retention in care are calculated based on attended HIV care clinic visits. Beyond these retention core indicators, we evaluated the additional prognostic value of missed clinic visits for all-cause mortality. Methods. We conducted a multisite cohort study of 3672 antiretroviral-naive patients initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) during 2000–2010. Retention in care was measured by the IOM and DHHS core indicators (2 attended visits at defined intervals per 12-month period), and also as a count of missed primary HIV care visits (no show) during a 24-month measurement period following ART initiation. All-cause mortality was ascertained by query of the Social Security Death Index and/or National Death Index, with adjusted survival analyses starting at 24 months after ART initiation. Results. Among participants, 64% and 59% met the IOM and DHHS retention core indicators, respectively, at 24 months. Subsequently, 332 patients died during 16 102 person-years of follow-up. Failure to achieve the IOM and DHHS indicators through 24 months following ART initiation increased mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.79–2.80 and HR = 2.36; 95% CI, 1.89–2.96, respectively). Among patients classified as retained by the IOM or DHHS clinical core indicators, >2 missed visits further increased mortality risk (HR = 3.61; 95% CI, 2.35–5.55 and HR = 3.62; 95% CI, 2.30–5.68, respectively). Conclusions. Beyond HIV retention core indicators, missed clinic visits were independently associated with all-cause mortality. Caution is warranted in relying solely upon retention in care core indicators for policy, clinical, and programmatic purposes. PMID:25091306

  20. Temperature multiscale entropy analysis: a promising marker for early prediction of mortality in septic patients.

    PubMed

    Papaioannou, V E; Chouvarda, I G; Maglaveras, N K; Baltopoulos, G I; Pneumatikos, I A

    2013-11-01

    A few studies estimating temperature complexity have found decreased Shannon entropy, during severe stress. In this study, we measured both Shannon and Tsallis entropy of temperature signals in a cohort of critically ill patients and compared these measures with the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, in terms of intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. Skin temperature was recorded in 21 mechanically ventilated patients, who developed sepsis and septic shock during the first 24 h of an ICU-acquired infection. Shannon and Tsallis entropies were calculated in wavelet-based decompositions of the temperature signal. Statistically significant differences of entropy features were tested between survivors and non-survivors and classification models were built, for predicting final outcome. Significantly reduced Tsallis and Shannon entropies were found in non-survivors (seven patients, 33%) as compared to survivors. Wavelet measurements of both entropy metrics were found to predict ICU mortality better than SOFA, according to a combination of area under the curve, sensitivity and specificity values. Both entropies exhibited similar prognostic accuracy. Combination of SOFA and entropy presented improved the outcome of univariate models. We suggest that reduced wavelet Shannon and Tsallis entropies of temperature signals may complement SOFA in mortality prediction, during the first 24 h of an ICU-acquired infection.

  1. Using Wind Tunnels to Predict Bird Mortality in Wind Farms: The Case of Griffon Vultures

    PubMed Central

    de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F. E.

    2012-01-01

    Background Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. Methodology/Principal Findings As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. Conclusions Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed). We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality. PMID:23152764

  2. Hypoalbuminemia, Low Base Excess Values, and Tachypnea Predict 28-Day Mortality in Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock Patients in the Emergency Department

    PubMed Central

    Seo, Min Ho; Choa, Minhong; You, Je Sung; Lee, Hye Sun; Hong, Jung Hwa; Chung, Sung Phil; Park, Incheol

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The objective of this study was to develop a new nomogram that can predict 28-day mortality in severe sepsis and/or septic shock patients using a combination of several biomarkers that are inexpensive and readily available in most emergency departments, with and without scoring systems. Materials and Methods We enrolled 561 patients who were admitted to an emergency department (ED) and received early goal-directed therapy for severe sepsis or septic shock. We collected demographic data, initial vital signs, and laboratory data sampled at the time of ED admission. Patients were randomly assigned to a training set or validation set. For the training set, we generated models using independent variables associated with 28-day mortality by multivariate analysis, and developed a new nomogram for the prediction of 28-day mortality. Thereafter, the diagnostic accuracy of the nomogram was tested using the validation set. Results The prediction model that included albumin, base excess, and respiratory rate demonstrated the largest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value of 0.8173 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.7605–0.8741]. The logistic analysis revealed that a conventional scoring system was not associated with 28-day mortality. In the validation set, the discrimination of a newly developed nomogram was also good, with an AUC value of 0.7537 (95% CI, 0.6563–0.8512). Conclusion Our new nomogram is valuable in predicting the 28-day mortality of patients with severe sepsis and/or septic shock in the emergency department. Moreover, our readily available nomogram is superior to conventional scoring systems in predicting mortality. PMID:27593863

  3. Comparison of the RIFLE, AKIN and KDIGO criteria to predict mortality in critically ill patients

    PubMed Central

    Levi, Talita Machado; de Souza, Sérgio Pinto; de Magalhães, Janine Garcia; de Carvalho, Márcia Sampaio; Cunha, André Luiz Barreto; Dantas, João Gabriel Athayde de Oliveira; Cruz, Marília Galvão; Guimarães, Yasmin Laryssa Moura; Cruz, Constança Margarida Sampaio

    2013-01-01

    Objective Acute kidney injury is a common complication in critically ill patients, and the RIFLE, AKIN and KDIGO criteria are used to classify these patients. The present study's aim was to compare these criteria as predictors of mortality in critically ill patients. Methods Prospective cohort study using medical records as the source of data. All patients admitted to the intensive care unit were included. The exclusion criteria were hospitalization for less than 24 hours and death. Patients were followed until discharge or death. Student's t test, chi-squared analysis, a multivariate logistic regression and ROC curves were used for the data analysis. Results The mean patient age was 64 years old, and the majority of patients were women of African descent. According to RIFLE, the mortality rates were 17.74%, 22.58%, 24.19% and 35.48% for patients without acute kidney injury (AKI) in stages of Risk, Injury and Failure, respectively. For AKIN, the mortality rates were 17.74%, 29.03%, 12.90% and 40.32% for patients without AKI and at stage I, stage II and stage III, respectively. For KDIGO 2012, the mortality rates were 17.74%, 29.03%, 11.29% and 41.94% for patients without AKI and at stage I, stage II and stage III, respectively. All three classification systems showed similar ROC curves for mortality. Conclusion The RIFLE, AKIN and KDIGO criteria were good tools for predicting mortality in critically ill patients with no significant difference between them. PMID:24553510

  4. Serum Calcification Propensity Is a Strong and Independent Determinant of Cardiac and All-Cause Mortality in Kidney Transplant Recipients.

    PubMed

    Dahle, D O; Åsberg, A; Hartmann, A; Holdaas, H; Bachtler, M; Jenssen, T G; Dionisi, M; Pasch, A

    2016-01-01

    Calcification of the vasculature is associated with cardiovascular disease and death in kidney transplant recipients. A novel functional blood test measures calcification propensity by quantifying the transformation time (T50 ) from primary to secondary calciprotein particles. Accelerated T50 indicates a diminished ability of serum to resist calcification. We measured T50 in 1435 patients 10 weeks after kidney transplantation during 2000-2003 (first era) and 2009-2012 (second era). Aortic pulse wave velocity (APWV) was measured at week 10 and after 1 year in 589 patients from the second era. Accelerated T50 was associated with diabetes, deceased donor, first transplant, rejection, stronger immunosuppression, first era, higher serum phosphate and lower albumin. T50 was not associated with progression of APWV. During a median follow-up of 5.1 years, 283 patients died, 70 from myocardial infarction, cardiac failure or sudden death. In Cox regression models, accelerated T50 was strongly and independently associated with both all-cause and cardiac mortality, low versus high T50 quartile: hazard ratio 1.60 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-2.57), ptrend   = 0.03, and 3.60 (95% CI 1.10-11.83), ptrend   = 0.02, respectively. In conclusion, calcification propensity (T50 ) was strongly associated with all-cause and cardiac mortality of kidney transplant recipients, potentially via a cardiac nonAPWV-related pathway. Whether therapeutic improvement of T50 improves outcome awaits clarification in a randomized trial. PMID:26375609

  5. N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) –based score can predict in-hospital mortality in patients with heart failure

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Ya-Ting; Tseng, Yuan-Teng; Chu, Tung-Wei; Chen, John; Lai, Min-Yu; Tang, Woung-Ru; Shiao, Chih-Chung

    2016-01-01

    Serum N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) testing is recommended in the patients with heart failure (HF). We hypothesized that NT-pro-BNP, in combination with other clinical factors in terms of a novel NT-pro BNP-based score, may provide even better predictive power for in-hospital mortality among patients with HF. A retrospective study enrolled adult patients with hospitalization-requiring HF who fulfilled the predefined criteria during the period from January 2011 to December 2013. We proposed a novel scoring system consisting of several independent predictors including NT-pro-BNP for predicting in-hospital mortality, and then compared the prognosis-predictive power of the novel NT-pro BNP-based score with other prognosis-predictive scores. A total of 269 patients were enrolled in the current study. Factors such as “serum NT-pro-BNP level above 8100 mg/dl,” “age above 79 years,” “without taking angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blocker,” “without taking beta-blocker,” “without taking loop diuretics,” “with mechanical ventilator support,” “with non-invasive ventilator support,” “with vasopressors use,” and “experience of cardio-pulmonary resuscitation” were found as independent predictors. A novel NT-pro BNP-based score composed of these risk factors was proposed with excellent predictability for in-hospital mortality. The proposed novel NT-pro BNP-based score was extremely effective in predicting in-hospital mortality in HF patients. PMID:27411951

  6. N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) -based score can predict in-hospital mortality in patients with heart failure.

    PubMed

    Huang, Ya-Ting; Tseng, Yuan-Teng; Chu, Tung-Wei; Chen, John; Lai, Min-Yu; Tang, Woung-Ru; Shiao, Chih-Chung

    2016-01-01

    Serum N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) testing is recommended in the patients with heart failure (HF). We hypothesized that NT-pro-BNP, in combination with other clinical factors in terms of a novel NT-pro BNP-based score, may provide even better predictive power for in-hospital mortality among patients with HF. A retrospective study enrolled adult patients with hospitalization-requiring HF who fulfilled the predefined criteria during the period from January 2011 to December 2013. We proposed a novel scoring system consisting of several independent predictors including NT-pro-BNP for predicting in-hospital mortality, and then compared the prognosis-predictive power of the novel NT-pro BNP-based score with other prognosis-predictive scores. A total of 269 patients were enrolled in the current study. Factors such as "serum NT-pro-BNP level above 8100 mg/dl," "age above 79 years," "without taking angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blocker," "without taking beta-blocker," "without taking loop diuretics," "with mechanical ventilator support," "with non-invasive ventilator support," "with vasopressors use," and "experience of cardio-pulmonary resuscitation" were found as independent predictors. A novel NT-pro BNP-based score composed of these risk factors was proposed with excellent predictability for in-hospital mortality. The proposed novel NT-pro BNP-based score was extremely effective in predicting in-hospital mortality in HF patients. PMID:27411951

  7. Mortality Prediction with a Single General Self-Rated Health Question

    PubMed Central

    DeSalvo, Karen B; Bloser, Nicole; Reynolds, Kristi; He, Jiang; Muntner, Paul

    2006-01-01

    objective Health planners and policy makers are increasingly asking for a feasible method to identify vulnerable persons with the greatest health needs. We conducted a systematic review of the association between a single item assessing general self-rated health (GSRH) and mortality. Data Sources Systematic MEDLINE and EMBASE database searches for studies published from January 1966 to September 2003. Review Methods Two investigators independently searched English language prospective, community-based cohort studies that reported (1) all-cause mortality, (2) a question assessing GSRH; and (3) an adjusted relative risk or equivalent. The investigators searched the citations to determine inclusion eligibility and abstracted data by following a standarized protocol. Of the 163 relevant studies identified, 22 cohorts met the inclusion criteria. Using a random effects model, compared with persons reporting “excellent” health status, the relative risk (95% confidence interval) for all-cause mortality was 1.23 [1.09, 1.39], 1.44 [1.21, 1.71], and 1.92 [1.64, 2.25] for those reporting “good,”“fair,” and “poor” health status, respectively. This relationship was robust in sensitivity analyses, limited to studies that adjusted for co-morbid illness, functional status, cognitive status, and depression, and across subgroups defined by gender and country of origin. Conclusions Persons with “poor” self-rated health had a 2-fold higher mortality risk compared with persons with “excellent” self-rated health. Subjects' responses to a simple, single-item GSRH question maintained a strong association with mortality even after adjustment for key covariates such as functional status, depression, and co-morbidity. PMID:16336622

  8. Usefulness of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and C-reactive protein to predict ICU mortality in unselected medical ICU patients: a prospective, observational study

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Introduction The performance of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and C-reactive protein (CRP) to predict clinical outcomes in ICU patients is unimpressive. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of NT-proBNP, CRP or the combination of both in unselected medical ICU patients. Methods A total of 576 consecutive patients were screened for eligibility and followed up during the ICU stay. We collected each patient's baseline characteristics including the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score, NT-proBNP and CRP levels. The primary outcome was ICU mortality. Potential predictors were analyzed for possible association with outcomes. We also evaluated the ability of NT-proBNP and CRP additive to APACHE-II score to predict ICU mortality by calculation of C-index, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) indices. Results Multiple regression revealed that CRP, NT-proBNP, APACHE-II score and fasting plasma glucose independently predicted ICU mortality (all P < 0.01). The C-index with respect to prediction of ICU mortality of APACHE II score (0.82 ± 0.02; P < 0.01) was greater than that of NT-proBNP (0.71 ± 0.03; P < 0.01) or CRP (0.65 ± 0.03; P < 0.01) (all P < 0.01). As compared with APACHE-II score (0.82 ± 0.02; P < 0.01), combination of CRP (0.83 ± 0.02; P < 0.01) or NT-proBNP (0.83 ± 0.02; P < 0.01) or both (0.84 ± 0.02; P < 0.01) with APACHE-II score did not significantly increase C-index for predicting ICU mortality (all P > 0.05). However, addition of NT-proBNP to APACHE-II score gave IDI of 6.6% (P = 0.003) and NRI of 16.6% (P = 0.007), addition of CRP to APACHE-II score provided IDI of 5.6% (P = 0.026) and NRI of 12.1% (P = 0.023), and addition of both markers to APACHE-II score yielded IDI of 7.5% (P = 0.002) and NRI of 17.9% (P = 0.002). In the cardiac subgroup (N = 213), NT-proBNP but not CRP independently predicted ICU mortality and addition of NT-proBNP to

  9. BNP, NTproBNP, CMBK, and MMP-2 predict mortality in severe Chagas cardiomyopathy

    PubMed Central

    Sherbuk, Jacqueline E.; Okamoto, Emi E.; Marks, Morgan A.; Fortuny, Enzo; Clark, Eva H.; Galdos-Cardenas, Gerson; Vasquez-Villar, Angel; Fernandez, Antonio B.; Crawford, Thomas C.; Do, Rose Q.; Flores-Franco, Jorge Luis; Colanzi, Rony; Gilman, Robert H.; Bern, Caryn

    2015-01-01

    Background Chagas cardiomyopathy is a chronic sequela of infection by the parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi. Advanced cardiomyopathy is associated with a high mortality rate, and clinical characteristics have been used to predict mortality risk. Though multiple biomarkers have been associated with Chagas cardiomyopathy, it is unknown how these are related to survival. Objectives Our study aimed to identify biomarkers associated with mortality in individuals with severe Chagas cardiomyopathy in an urban Bolivian hospital. Methods The population included individuals with and without T. cruzi infection recruited in an urban hospital in Santa Cruz, Bolivia. Baseline characteristics, ECG findings, medications, and serum cardiac biomarker levels (BNP, NTproBNP, CKMB, troponin I, MMP-2, MMP-9, TIMP-1, TIMP-2, TGFb1, and TGFb2) were ascertained. Echocardiograms were preferentially performed on those with cardiac symptoms or electrocardiogram abnormalities. Participants were contacted by phone approximately 1 year after initial evaluation; deaths were reported by family members. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to optimize cut-off values for each marker. For markers with area under curve > 0.55, Cox proportional hazards models were performed to determine the hazards ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the association of each marker with mortality. Results The median follow-up time was 14.1 months (interquartile range 12.5- 16.7 months). Of 254 individuals with complete cardiac data, 220 (87%) had follow-up data. Of 50 patients with severe Chagas cardiomyopathy, 20 (40%) had died. Higher baseline levels of BNP (HR[95% CI]:3.1 [1.2, 8.4]), NTproBNP (4.4[1.8,11.0]), CKMB (3.3[1.3, 8.0]), and MMP-2 (4.2[1.5, 11.8]) were significantly associated with subsequent mortality. Conclusions Severe Chagas cardiomyopathy is associated with high short-term mortality. BNP, NTproBNP, CKMB and MMP2 have added predictive value for mortality, even in the presence of

  10. Type-I interferon response affects an inoculation dose-independent mortality in mice following Japanese encephalitis virus infection

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    might explain the inoculation dose-independent mortality in mice caused by Japanese encephalitis virus. PMID:24903089

  11. Markers of Endothelial Dysfunction, Coagulation and Tissue Fibrosis Independently Predict Venous Thromboembolism in HIV

    PubMed Central

    MUSSELWHITE, Laura W.; SHEIKH, Virginia; NORTON, Thomas D.; RUPERT, Adam; PORTER, Brian O.; PENZAK, Scott R.; SKINNER, Jeff; MICAN, JoAnn M.; HADIGAN, Colleen; SERETI, Irini

    2015-01-01

    Objective HIV infection is associated with coagulation abnormalities and significantly increased risk of venous thrombosis. It has been shown that higher plasma levels of coagulation and inflammatory biomarkers predicted mortality in HIV. We investigated the relationship between venous thrombosis and HIV-related characteristics, traditional risk factors of hypercoagulability and pre-event levels of biomarkers. Design A retrospective case-control study of 23 HIV-infected individuals who experienced an incident venous thromboembolic (VTE) event while enrolled in National Institutes of Health studies from 1995–2010 and 69 age and sex-matched HIV-infected individuals without known VTE. Methods Biomarkers of inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, coagulation, tissue fibrosis, and cytomegalovirus (CMV) reactivation were assessed by ELISA-based assays and PCR using plasma obtained prior to the event. Results VTE events were related to nadir CD4 count, lifetime history of multiple opportunistic infections, CMV disease, CMV viremia, immunological AIDS, active infection and provocation (i.e. recent hospitalization, surgery or trauma). VTE events were independently associated with increased plasma levels of P-selectin, P=0.002; D-dimer, P=0.01; and hyaluronic acid, P=0.009 in a multivariate analysis. No significant differences in antiretroviral or interleukin 2 exposures, plasma HIV viremia, or other traditional risk factors were observed. Conclusion Severe immunodeficiency, active infection and provocation are associated with venous thromboembolic disease in HIV. Biomarkers of endothelial dysfunction, coagulation and tissue fibrosis may help identify HIV-infected patients at elevated risk of VTE. PMID:21412059

  12. Admission Risk Score to Predict Inpatient Pediatric Mortality at Four Public Hospitals in Uganda.

    PubMed

    Mpimbaza, Arthur; Sears, David; Sserwanga, Asadu; Kigozi, Ruth; Rubahika, Denis; Nadler, Adam; Yeka, Adoke; Dorsey, Grant

    2015-01-01

    Mortality rates among hospitalized children in many government hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa are high. Pediatric emergency services in these hospitals are often sub-optimal. Timely recognition of critically ill children on arrival is key to improving service delivery. We present a simple risk score to predict inpatient mortality among hospitalized children. Between April 2010 and June 2011, the Uganda Malaria Surveillance Project (UMSP), in collaboration with the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP), set up an enhanced sentinel site malaria surveillance program for children hospitalized at four public hospitals in different districts: Tororo, Apac, Jinja and Mubende. Clinical data collected through March 2013, representing 50249 admissions were used to develop a mortality risk score (derivation data set). One year of data collected subsequently from the same hospitals, representing 20406 admissions, were used to prospectively validate the performance of the risk score (validation data set). Using a backward selection approach, 13 out of 25 clinical parameters recognizable on initial presentation, were selected for inclusion in a final logistic regression prediction model. The presence of individual parameters was awarded a score of either 1 or 2 based on regression coefficients. For each individual patient, a composite risk score was generated. The risk score was further categorized into three categories; low, medium, and high. Patient characteristics were comparable in both data sets. Measures of performance for the risk score included the receiver operating characteristics curves and the area under the curve (AUC), both demonstrating good and comparable ability to predict deathusing both the derivation (AUC =0.76) and validation dataset (AUC =0.74). Using the derivation and validation datasets, the mortality rates in each risk category were as follows: low risk (0.8% vs. 0.7%), moderate risk (3.5% vs. 3.2%), and high risk (16.5% vs. 12.6%), respectively. Our

  13. Admission Risk Score to Predict Inpatient Pediatric Mortality at Four Public Hospitals in Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Mpimbaza, Arthur; Sears, David; Sserwanga, Asadu; Kigozi, Ruth; Rubahika, Denis; Nadler, Adam; Yeka, Adoke; Dorsey, Grant

    2015-01-01

    Mortality rates among hospitalized children in many government hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa are high. Pediatric emergency services in these hospitals are often sub-optimal. Timely recognition of critically ill children on arrival is key to improving service delivery. We present a simple risk score to predict inpatient mortality among hospitalized children. Between April 2010 and June 2011, the Uganda Malaria Surveillance Project (UMSP), in collaboration with the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP), set up an enhanced sentinel site malaria surveillance program for children hospitalized at four public hospitals in different districts: Tororo, Apac, Jinja and Mubende. Clinical data collected through March 2013, representing 50249 admissions were used to develop a mortality risk score (derivation data set). One year of data collected subsequently from the same hospitals, representing 20406 admissions, were used to prospectively validate the performance of the risk score (validation data set). Using a backward selection approach, 13 out of 25 clinical parameters recognizable on initial presentation, were selected for inclusion in a final logistic regression prediction model. The presence of individual parameters was awarded a score of either 1 or 2 based on regression coefficients. For each individual patient, a composite risk score was generated. The risk score was further categorized into three categories; low, medium, and high. Patient characteristics were comparable in both data sets. Measures of performance for the risk score included the receiver operating characteristics curves and the area under the curve (AUC), both demonstrating good and comparable ability to predict deathusing both the derivation (AUC =0.76) and validation dataset (AUC =0.74). Using the derivation and validation datasets, the mortality rates in each risk category were as follows: low risk (0.8% vs. 0.7%), moderate risk (3.5% vs. 3.2%), and high risk (16.5% vs. 12.6%), respectively. Our

  14. Admission Risk Score to Predict Inpatient Pediatric Mortality at Four Public Hospitals in Uganda.

    PubMed

    Mpimbaza, Arthur; Sears, David; Sserwanga, Asadu; Kigozi, Ruth; Rubahika, Denis; Nadler, Adam; Yeka, Adoke; Dorsey, Grant

    2015-01-01

    Mortality rates among hospitalized children in many government hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa are high. Pediatric emergency services in these hospitals are often sub-optimal. Timely recognition of critically ill children on arrival is key to improving service delivery. We present a simple risk score to predict inpatient mortality among hospitalized children. Between April 2010 and June 2011, the Uganda Malaria Surveillance Project (UMSP), in collaboration with the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP), set up an enhanced sentinel site malaria surveillance program for children hospitalized at four public hospitals in different districts: Tororo, Apac, Jinja and Mubende. Clinical data collected through March 2013, representing 50249 admissions were used to develop a mortality risk score (derivation data set). One year of data collected subsequently from the same hospitals, representing 20406 admissions, were used to prospectively validate the performance of the risk score (validation data set). Using a backward selection approach, 13 out of 25 clinical parameters recognizable on initial presentation, were selected for inclusion in a final logistic regression prediction model. The presence of individual parameters was awarded a score of either 1 or 2 based on regression coefficients. For each individual patient, a composite risk score was generated. The risk score was further categorized into three categories; low, medium, and high. Patient characteristics were comparable in both data sets. Measures of performance for the risk score included the receiver operating characteristics curves and the area under the curve (AUC), both demonstrating good and comparable ability to predict deathusing both the derivation (AUC =0.76) and validation dataset (AUC =0.74). Using the derivation and validation datasets, the mortality rates in each risk category were as follows: low risk (0.8% vs. 0.7%), moderate risk (3.5% vs. 3.2%), and high risk (16.5% vs. 12.6%), respectively. Our

  15. High levels of acute phase proteins and soluble 70 kDa heat shock proteins are independent and additive risk factors for mortality in colorectal cancer

    PubMed Central

    Kocsis, Judit; Mészáros, Tamás; Madaras, Balázs; Tóth, Éva Katalin; Kamondi, Szilárd; Gál, Péter; Varga, Lilian; Prohászka, Zoltán

    2010-01-01

    Recently, we reported that high soluble Hsp70 (sHsp70) level was a significant predictor of mortality during an almost 3-year-long follow-up period in patients with colorectal cancer. This association was the strongest in the group of <70-year-old female patients as well as in those who were in a less advanced stage of the disease at baseline. According to these observations, measurement of the serum level of sHsp70 is a useful, stage-independent prognostic marker in colorectal cancer, especially in patients without distant metastasis. Since many literature data indicated that measurement of C-reactive protein (CRP) and other acute phase proteins (APPs) may also be suitable for predicting the mortality of patients with colorectal cancer, it seemed reasonable to study whether the effect of sHsp70 and other APPs are related or independent. In order to answer this question, we measured the concentrations of CRP as well as of other complement-related APPs (C1 inhibitor, C3, and C9) along with that of the MASP-2 complement component in the sera of 175 patients with colorectal cancer and known levels of sHsp70, which have been used in our previous study. High (above median) levels of CRP, C1 esterase inhibitor (C1-INH), and sHsp70 were found to be independently associated with poor patient survival, whereas no such association was observed with the other proteins tested. According to the adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis, the additive effect of high sHsp70, CRP, and C1-INH levels on the survival of patients exceeded that of high sHsp70 alone, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.83 (1.13–70.9). In some subgroups of patients, such as in females [HR 4.80 (1.07–21.60)] or in ≤70-year-old patients [HR 11.53 (2.78–47.70)], even greater differences were obtained. These findings indicate that the clinical mortality–prediction value of combined measurements of sHsp70, CRP, and C1-INH with inexpensive methods can be very high, especially in specific subgroups of

  16. Ankle-brachial blood pressure index predicts cardiovascular events and mortality in Japanese patients with chronic kidney disease not on dialysis.

    PubMed

    Yoshitomi, Ryota; Nakayama, Masaru; Ura, Yoriko; Kuma, Kazuyoshi; Nishimoto, Hitomi; Fukui, Akiko; Ikeda, Hirofumi; Tsuchihashi, Takuya; Tsuruya, Kazuhiko; Kitazono, Takanari

    2014-12-01

    The ankle-brachial blood pressure index (ABPI) has been recognized to have a predictive value for cardiovascular (CV) events and mortality in general or dialysis populations. However, the associations between ABPI and those outcomes have not been fully investigated in predialysis patients. The present study aimed to clarify the relationships between ABPI and both CV events and mortality in Japanese chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients not on dialysis. In this prospective observational study, we enrolled 320 patients with CKD stages 3-5 who were not on dialysis. At baseline, ABPI was examined and a low ABPI was defined as <0.9. CV events and all-cause deaths were examined in each patient. A Cox proportional hazards model was applied to determine the risk factors for CV events, as well as for mortality from CV and all causes. The median follow-up period was 30 months. CV events occurred in 56 patients and all-cause deaths occurred in 48, including 20 CV deaths. Multivariate analysis showed that age and low ABPI were risk factors for CV events. It was demonstrated that age, a history of cerebrovascular disease and low ABPI were determined as independent risk factors for CV mortality. In addition, age, body mass index and low ABPI were independently associated with all-cause mortality. In patients with CKD, low ABPI during the predialysis period is independently associated with poor survival and CV events, suggesting the usefulness of measuring ABPI for predicting CV events and patient survival in CKD. PMID:25056682

  17. Serum creatinine level, a surrogate of muscle mass, predicts mortality in critically ill patients

    PubMed Central

    Thongprayoon, Charat; Cheungpasitporn, Wisit

    2016-01-01

    Serum creatinine (SCr) has been widely used to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Creatinine generation could be reduced in the setting of low skeletal muscle mass. Thus, SCr has also been used as a surrogate of muscle mass. Low muscle mass is associated with reduced survival in hospitalized patients, especially in the intensive care unit (ICU) settings. Recently, studies have demonstrated high mortality in ICU patients with low admission SCr levels, reflecting that low muscle mass or malnutrition, are associated with increased mortality. However, SCr levels can also be influenced by multiple GFR- and non-GFR-related factors including age, diet, exercise, stress, pregnancy, and kidney disease. Imaging techniques, such as computed tomography (CT) and ultrasound, have recently been studied for muscle mass assessment and demonstrated promising data. This article aims to present the perspectives of the uses of SCr and other methods for prediction of muscle mass and outcomes of ICU patients. PMID:27162688

  18. A Prediction Rule to Stratify Mortality Risk of Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis

    PubMed Central

    Osório, Nuno S.; Castro, António Gil; Ramos, Angélica; Carvalho, Teresa; Meira, Leonor; Araújo, David; Almeida, Leonor; Boaventura, Rita; Fragata, Patrícia; Chaves, Catarina; Costa, Patrício; Portela, Miguel; Ferreira, Ivo; Magalhães, Sara Pinto; Rodrigues, Fernando; Sarmento-Castro, Rui; Duarte, Raquel; Guimarães, João Tiago; Saraiva, Margarida

    2016-01-01

    Tuberculosis imposes high human and economic tolls, including in Europe. This study was conducted to develop a severity assessment tool for stratifying mortality risk in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients. A derivation cohort of 681 PTB cases was retrospectively reviewed to generate a model based on multiple logistic regression analysis of prognostic variables with 6-month mortality as the outcome measure. A clinical scoring system was developed and tested against a validation cohort of 103 patients. Five risk features were selected for the prediction model: hypoxemic respiratory failure (OR 4.7, 95% CI 2.8–7.9), age ≥50 years (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.7–4.8), bilateral lung involvement (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4–4.4), ≥1 significant comorbidity—HIV infection, diabetes mellitus, liver failure or cirrhosis, congestive heart failure and chronic respiratory disease–(OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3–3.8), and hemoglobin <12 g/dL (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1–3.1). A tuberculosis risk assessment tool (TReAT) was developed, stratifying patients with low (score ≤2), moderate (score 3–5) and high (score ≥6) mortality risk. The mortality associated with each group was 2.9%, 22.9% and 53.9%, respectively. The model performed equally well in the validation cohort. We provide a new, easy-to-use clinical scoring system to identify PTB patients with high-mortality risk in settings with good healthcare access, helping clinicians to decide which patients are in need of closer medical care during treatment. PMID:27636095

  19. A Prediction Rule to Stratify Mortality Risk of Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis.

    PubMed

    Bastos, Helder Novais; Osório, Nuno S; Castro, António Gil; Ramos, Angélica; Carvalho, Teresa; Meira, Leonor; Araújo, David; Almeida, Leonor; Boaventura, Rita; Fragata, Patrícia; Chaves, Catarina; Costa, Patrício; Portela, Miguel; Ferreira, Ivo; Magalhães, Sara Pinto; Rodrigues, Fernando; Sarmento-Castro, Rui; Duarte, Raquel; Guimarães, João Tiago; Saraiva, Margarida

    2016-01-01

    Tuberculosis imposes high human and economic tolls, including in Europe. This study was conducted to develop a severity assessment tool for stratifying mortality risk in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients. A derivation cohort of 681 PTB cases was retrospectively reviewed to generate a model based on multiple logistic regression analysis of prognostic variables with 6-month mortality as the outcome measure. A clinical scoring system was developed and tested against a validation cohort of 103 patients. Five risk features were selected for the prediction model: hypoxemic respiratory failure (OR 4.7, 95% CI 2.8-7.9), age ≥50 years (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.7-4.8), bilateral lung involvement (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4-4.4), ≥1 significant comorbidity-HIV infection, diabetes mellitus, liver failure or cirrhosis, congestive heart failure and chronic respiratory disease-(OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3-3.8), and hemoglobin <12 g/dL (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1-3.1). A tuberculosis risk assessment tool (TReAT) was developed, stratifying patients with low (score ≤2), moderate (score 3-5) and high (score ≥6) mortality risk. The mortality associated with each group was 2.9%, 22.9% and 53.9%, respectively. The model performed equally well in the validation cohort. We provide a new, easy-to-use clinical scoring system to identify PTB patients with high-mortality risk in settings with good healthcare access, helping clinicians to decide which patients are in need of closer medical care during treatment. PMID:27636095

  20. Oxidative Stress Predicts All-Cause Mortality in HIV-Infected Patients

    PubMed Central

    Masiá, Mar; Padilla, Sergio; Fernández, Marta; Rodríguez, Carmen; Moreno, Ana; Oteo, Jose A.; Antela, Antonio; Moreno, Santiago; del Amo, Julia; Gutiérrez, Félix

    2016-01-01

    Objective We aimed to assess whether oxidative stress is a predictor of mortality in HIV-infected patients. Methods We conducted a nested case-control study in CoRIS, a contemporary, multicentre cohort of HIV-infected patients, antiretroviral-naïve at entry, launched in 2004. Cases were patients who died with available stored plasma samples collected. Two age and sex-matched controls for each case were selected. We measured F2-isoprostanes (F2-IsoPs) and malondialdehyde (MDA) plasma levels in the first blood sample obtained after cohort engagement. Results 54 cases and 93 controls were included. Median F2-IsoPs and MDA levels were significantly higher in cases than in controls. When adjustment was performed for age, HIV-transmission category, CD4 cell count and HIV viral load at cohort entry, and subclinical inflammation measured with highly-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP), the association of F2-IsoPs with mortality remained significant (adjusted OR per 1 log10 increase, 2.34 [1.23–4.47], P = 0.009). The association of MDA with mortality was attenuated after adjustment: adjusted OR (95% CI) per 1 log10 increase, 2.05 [0.91–4.59], P = 0.080. Median hsCRP was also higher in cases, and it also proved to be an independent predictor of mortality in the adjusted analysis: OR (95% CI) per 1 log10 increase, 1.39 (1.01–1.91), P = 0.043; and OR (95% CI) per 1 log10 increase, 1.46 (1.07–1.99), P = 0.014, respectively, when adjustment included F2-IsoPs and MDA. Conclusion Oxidative stress is a predictor of all-cause mortality in HIV-infected patients. For plasma F2-IsoPs, this association is independent of HIV-related factors and subclinical inflammation. PMID:27111769

  1. Hematological Parameters Improve Prediction of Mortality and Secondary Adverse Events in Coronary Angiography Patients

    PubMed Central

    Gijsberts, Crystel M.; den Ruijter, Hester M.; de Kleijn, Dominique P.V.; Huisman, Albert; ten Berg, Maarten J.; van Wijk, Richard H.A.; Asselbergs, Folkert W.; Voskuil, Michiel; Pasterkamp, Gerard; van Solinge, Wouter W.; Hoefer, Imo E.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Prediction of primary cardiovascular events has been thoroughly investigated since the landmark Framingham risk score was introduced. However, prediction of secondary events after initial events of coronary artery disease (CAD) poses a new challenge. In a cohort of coronary angiography patients (n = 1760), we examined readily available hematological parameters from the UPOD (Utrecht Patient Oriented Database) and their addition to prediction of secondary cardiovascular events. Backward stepwise multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to test their ability to predict death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Continuous net reclassification improvement (cNRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) measures were calculated for the hematological parameters on top of traditional risk factors to assess prediction improvement. Panels of 3 to 8 hematological parameters significantly improved prediction of death and adverse events. The IDIs ranged from 0.02 to 0.07 (all P < 0.001) among outcome measures and the cNRIs from 0.11 to 0.40 (P < 0.001 in 5 of 6 outcome measures). In the hematological panels red cell distribution width (RDW) appeared most often. The multivariable adjusted hazard ratio of RDW per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase for MACE was 1.19 [1.08–1.32], P < 0.001. Routinely measured hematological parameters significantly improved prediction of mortality and adverse events in coronary angiography patients. Accurately indicating high-risk patients is of paramount importance in clinical decision-making. PMID:26559287

  2. pRIFLE (Pediatric Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, End Stage Renal Disease) score identifies Acute Kidney Injury and predicts mortality in critically ill children : a prospective study

    PubMed Central

    Soler, Yadira A.; Nieves-Plaza, Mariely; Prieto, Mónica; García-De Jesús, Ricardo; Suárez-Rivera, Marta

    2014-01-01

    Objectives 1) To determine whether pRIFLE (Pediatric Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, End Stage Renal Disease) criteria serves to characterize the pattern of Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) in critically ill pediatric patients; and 2) to identify if pRIFLE score will predict morbidity and mortality in our patient´s cohort. Design Prospective Cohort. Setting Multidisciplinary, tertiary care, 10- bed PICU. Patients 266 patients admitted to PICU from November 2009 to November 2010. Interventions None. Measurements and Main Results The incidence of AKI in the PICU was 27.4%, of which 83.5% presented within 72hrs of admission to the PICU. Patients with AKI were younger, weighed less, were more likely to be on in fluid overload ≥10%, and were more likely to be on inotropic support, diuretics or amino glycosides. No difference in gender, use of other nephrotoxins, or mechanical ventilation was observed. Fluid overload ≥10% was an independent predictor of morbidity and mortality. In multivariate analysis, AKI-Injury and Failure categories, as defined by pRIFLE, predicted mortality, hospital length of stay, and PICU length of stay. Conclusions In this cohort of critically ill pediatric patients, AKI identified by pRIFLE and fluid overload ≥ 10% predicted increased morbidity and mortality. Implementation of pRIFLE scoring and close monitoring of fluid overload upon admission may help develop early interventions to prevent and treat AKI in critically ill children. PMID:23439463

  3. Circulating inflammatory mediators predict shock and mortality in febrile patients with microbial infection.

    PubMed

    Groeneveld, A B J; Tacx, A N; Bossink, A W J; van Mierlo, G J; Hack, C E

    2003-02-01

    The host response to microbial infection is associated with the release of inflammatory mediators. We hypothesized that the type and degree of the systemic response as reflected by levels of circulating mediators predict morbidity and mortality, according to the invasiveness of microbial infection. We prospectively studied 133 medical patients with fever and culture-proven microbial infection. For 3 days after inclusion, the circulating levels of activated complement C3a, interleukin (IL)-6, and secretory phospholipase A(2) (sPLA(2)) were determined daily. Based on results of microbiological studies performed for up to 7 days, patients were classified as having local infections (Group 1, n = 80 positive local cultures or specific stains for fungal or tuberculous infections) or bacteremia (Group 2, n = 52 plus 1 patient with malaria parasitemia). Outcome was assessed as the development of septic shock and as mortality up to 28 days after inclusion. Fifteen patients (11%) developed septic shock and overall mortality was 18% (n = 24). Bacteremia was associated with shock and shock predisposed to death. Circulating mediator levels were generally higher in Group 2 than in Group 1. Circulating levels of IL-6 and sPLA(2) were higher in patients developing septic shock and in nonsurvivors, particularly in Group 1. High C3a was particularly associated with nonsurvival in Group 2. In Group 1, the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the peak sPLA(2) for shock development was 0.79 (P < 0.05). The AUC of the ROC curve of the peak IL-6 and sPLA(2) for mortality was 0.69 and 0.68 (P < 0.05), respectively. In Group 2, the AUC of the ROC for peak C3a predicting mortality was 0.73 (P < 0.05). In conclusion, in medical patients with fever and microbial infection, the systemic inflammatory host response predicts shock and death, at an early stage, dependent on the invasiveness of microbial infection. The results suggest a differential

  4. Predicting hospital mortality using APACHE II scores in neurocritically ill patients: a prospective study.

    PubMed

    Su, Ying-Ying; Li, Xia; Li, Si-jie; Luo, Rong; Ding, Jian-ping; Wang, Lin; Cao, Gui-hua; Wang, Dong-yu; Gao, Jin-xia

    2009-09-01

    Four versions of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation are limited in predicting hospital mortality for neurocritically ill patients. This prospective study aimed to develop and assess the accuracy of a modified APACHE II model in predicting mortality in neurologic intensive care unit (N-ICU). A total of 653 patients entered the study. APACHE II scores on admission, and worst 24-, 48-, and 72-h scores were obtained. Neurologic diagnoses on admission were classified into five categories: cerebral infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, neurologic infection, neuromuscular disease, and other neurologic diseases. We developed a modified APACHE II model based on the variables of the 72-h APACHE II score and disease category using a multivariate logistic regression procedure to estimate probability of death. We assessed the calibration and discrimination of the modified APACHE II model using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit chi-squared statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AU-ROC). The modified APACHE II model had good discrimination (AU-ROC = 0.88) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic: chi (2) = 3.707, P = 0.834). The discrimination of the 72-h APACHE II score for cerebral infarction, intracerebral hemorrhage, and neurologic infection was satisfactory, with AU-ROC of 0.858, 0.863, and 1.000, respectively, but it was poor in discriminating for the categories of other neurologic diseases and neuromuscular disease. The results showed that our modified APACHE II model can accurately predict hospital mortality for patients in N-ICU. It is more applicable to clinical practice than the previous model because of its simplicity and ease of use.

  5. Progressive rise in red blood cell distribution width predicts mortality and cardiovascular events in end-stage renal disease patients.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Hye Eun; Kim, Sung Jun; Hwang, Hyeon Seok; Chung, Sungjin; Yang, Chul Woo; Shin, Seok Joon

    2015-01-01

    Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is a robust marker of adverse clinical outcomes in various populations. However, the clinical significance of a progressive rise in RDW is undetermined in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients. The purpose of this study was to determine the prognostic importance of a change in RDW in ESRD patients. Three hundred twenty-six incident dialysis patients were retrospectively analyzed. Temporal changes in RDW during 12 months after dialysis initiation were assessed by calculating the coefficients by linear regression. Patients were divided into two groups: an RDW-decreased group who had negative coefficient values (n = 177) and an RDW-increased group who had positive values (n = 149). The associations between rising RDW and mortality and cardiovascular (CV) events were investigated. During a median follow-up of 2.7 years (range, 1.0-7.7 years), 75 deaths (24.0%) and 60 non-fatal CV events (18.4%) occurred. The event-free survival rate for the composite of end-points was lower in the RDW-increased group (P = 0.004). After categorizing patients according to baseline RDW, the event-free survival rate was lowest in patients with a baseline RDW >14.9% and increased RDW, and highest in patients with a baseline RDW ≤14.9% and decreased RDW (P = 0.02). In multivariate analysis, rising RDW was independently associated with the composite of end-points (hazard ratio = 1.75, P = 0.007), whereas the baseline RDW was not. This study shows that a progressive rise in RDW independently predicted mortality and CV events in ESRD patients. Rising RDW could be an additive predictor for adverse CV outcomes ESRD patients. PMID:25961836

  6. Using data-driven rules to predict mortality in severe community acquired pneumonia.

    PubMed

    Wu, Chuang; Rosenfeld, Roni; Clermont, Gilles

    2014-01-01

    Prediction of patient-centered outcomes in hospitals is useful for performance benchmarking, resource allocation, and guidance regarding active treatment and withdrawal of care. Yet, their use by clinicians is limited by the complexity of available tools and amount of data required. We propose to use Disjunctive Normal Forms as a novel approach to predict hospital and 90-day mortality from instance-based patient data, comprising demographic, genetic, and physiologic information in a large cohort of patients admitted with severe community acquired pneumonia. We develop two algorithms to efficiently learn Disjunctive Normal Forms, which yield easy-to-interpret rules that explicitly map data to the outcome of interest. Disjunctive Normal Forms achieve higher prediction performance quality compared to a set of state-of-the-art machine learning models, and unveils insights unavailable with standard methods. Disjunctive Normal Forms constitute an intuitive set of prediction rules that could be easily implemented to predict outcomes and guide criteria-based clinical decision making and clinical trial execution, and thus of greater practical usefulness than currently available prediction tools. The Java implementation of the tool JavaDNF will be publicly available. PMID:24699007

  7. Using Data-Driven Rules to Predict Mortality in Severe Community Acquired Pneumonia

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Chuang; Rosenfeld, Roni; Clermont, Gilles

    2014-01-01

    Prediction of patient-centered outcomes in hospitals is useful for performance benchmarking, resource allocation, and guidance regarding active treatment and withdrawal of care. Yet, their use by clinicians is limited by the complexity of available tools and amount of data required. We propose to use Disjunctive Normal Forms as a novel approach to predict hospital and 90-day mortality from instance-based patient data, comprising demographic, genetic, and physiologic information in a large cohort of patients admitted with severe community acquired pneumonia. We develop two algorithms to efficiently learn Disjunctive Normal Forms, which yield easy-to-interpret rules that explicitly map data to the outcome of interest. Disjunctive Normal Forms achieve higher prediction performance quality compared to a set of state-of-the-art machine learning models, and unveils insights unavailable with standard methods. Disjunctive Normal Forms constitute an intuitive set of prediction rules that could be easily implemented to predict outcomes and guide criteria-based clinical decision making and clinical trial execution, and thus of greater practical usefulness than currently available prediction tools. The Java implementation of the tool JavaDNF will be publicly available. PMID:24699007

  8. An evaluation of machine-learning methods for predicting pneumonia mortality.

    PubMed

    Cooper, G F; Aliferis, C F; Ambrosino, R; Aronis, J; Buchanan, B G; Caruana, R; Fine, M J; Glymour, C; Gordon, G; Hanusa, B H; Janosky, J E; Meek, C; Mitchell, T; Richardson, T; Spirtes, P

    1997-02-01

    This paper describes the application of eight statistical and machine-learning methods to derive computer models for predicting mortality of hospital patients with pneumonia from their findings at initial presentation. The eight models were each constructed based on 9847 patient cases and they were each evaluated on 4352 additional cases. The primary evaluation metric was the error in predicted survival as a function of the fraction of patients predicted to survive. This metric is useful in assessing a model's potential to assist a clinician in deciding whether to treat a given patient in the hospital or at home. We examined the error rates of the models when predicting that a given fraction of patients will survive. We examined survival fractions between 0.1 and 0.6. Over this range, each model's predictive error rate was within 1% of the error rate of every other model. When predicting that approximately 30% of the patients will survive, all the models have an error rate of less than 1.5%. The models are distinguished more by the number of variables and parameters that they contain than by their error rates; these differences suggest which models may be the most amenable to future implementation as paper-based guidelines. PMID:9040894

  9. The effect of lead time bias on severity of illness scoring, mortality prediction and standardised mortality ratio in intensive care--a pilot study.

    PubMed

    Tunnell, R D; Millar, B W; Smith, G B

    1998-11-01

    The effect of lead time bias on severity of illness scoring, mortality prediction and standardised mortality ratios was examined in a pilot study of 76 intensive care (ICU) patients using APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II scoring systems. The inclusion of data collected in the period prior to ICU admission increased severity of illness scores and estimated risk of hospital mortality significantly for all three scoring systems (p < 0.01) by up to 14 points and 42.7% (APACHE II), 50 points and 26.3% (APACHE III) and 23 points and 33.4% (SAPS II), respectively. Standardised mortality ratios fell from 0.99 to 0.79 (APACHE II), 0.96 to 0.84 (APACHE III) and 0.75 to 0.64 (SAPS II), but these changes failed to reach statistical significance. Lead time bias had most effect in medical patients and on emergency admissions, and least effect in patients admitted from the operating theatre. These trends suggest that mortality ratios may not necessarily reflect intensive care unit performance and indicate that a larger study of the effect of lead time bias, case mix, pre-ICU care or post-ICU management on standardised mortality ratios is indicated. PMID:10023272

  10. What weather variables are important in predicting heat-related mortality? A new application of statistical learning methods.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Kai; Li, Yun; Schwartz, Joel D; O'Neill, Marie S

    2014-07-01

    Hot weather increases risk of mortality. Previous studies used different sets of weather variables to characterize heat stress, resulting in variation in heat-mortality associations depending on the metric used. We employed a statistical learning method - random forests - to examine which of the various weather variables had the greatest impact on heat-related mortality. We compiled a summertime daily weather and mortality counts dataset from four U.S. cities (Chicago, IL; Detroit, MI; Philadelphia, PA; and Phoenix, AZ) from 1998 to 2006. A variety of weather variables were ranked in predicting deviation from typical daily all-cause and cause-specific death counts. Ranks of weather variables varied with city and health outcome. Apparent temperature appeared to be the most important predictor of heat-related mortality for all-cause mortality. Absolute humidity was, on average, most frequently selected as one of the top variables for all-cause mortality and seven cause-specific mortality categories. Our analysis affirms that apparent temperature is a reasonable variable for activating heat alerts and warnings, which are commonly based on predictions of total mortality in next few days. Additionally, absolute humidity should be included in future heat-health studies. Finally, random forests can be used to guide the choice of weather variables in heat epidemiology studies.

  11. The -665 C>T polymorphism in the eNOS gene predicts cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in white Europeans.

    PubMed

    Olivi, L; Gu, Y M; Salvi, E; Liu, Y P; Thijs, L; Velayutham, D; Jin, Y; Jacobs, L; D'Avila, F; Petit, T; Barcella, M; Lanzani, C; Kuznetsova, T; Manunta, P; Barlassina, C; Cusi, D; Staessen, J A

    2015-03-01

    We recently identified rs3918226 as a hypertension susceptibility locus (-665 C>T), TT homozygosity being associated with higher hypertension risk. T compared with C allele transfected cells had lower endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) expression. In the family-based Flemish Study on Environment, Genes and Health Outcomes (50.9% women; mean age 40.3 years), we investigated whether 32 TT homozygotes had worse outcomes than 2787 C allele carriers. Over 15 years (median), total and cardiovascular mortality and cardiovascular and coronary events amounted to 269 (9.5%), 98 (3.5%), 247 (8.8%) and 120 (4.3%), respectively. While accounting for family clusters, the hazard ratios associated with TT homozygosity were 4.11 (P=0.0052) for cardiovascular mortality (4 deaths), 2.75 (P=0.0067) for cardiovascular events (7 endpoints) and 3.10 (P=0.022) for coronary events (4 endpoints). With adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, these hazard ratios were 6.01 (P=0.0003), 2.64 (P=0.0091) and 2.89 (P=0.010), respectively. Analyses unadjusted for blood pressure and antihypertensive treatment produced consistent results. For all fatal plus nonfatal cardiovascular events, the positive predictive value, attributable risk and population-attributable risk associated with TT homozygosity were 21.9, 61.5 and 2.0%, respectively. In conclusion, TT homozygosity at the position -665 in the eNOS promoter predicts adverse outcomes, independent of blood pressure and other risk factors.

  12. The -665 C>T polymorphism in the eNOS gene predicts cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in white Europeans.

    PubMed

    Olivi, L; Gu, Y M; Salvi, E; Liu, Y P; Thijs, L; Velayutham, D; Jin, Y; Jacobs, L; D'Avila, F; Petit, T; Barcella, M; Lanzani, C; Kuznetsova, T; Manunta, P; Barlassina, C; Cusi, D; Staessen, J A

    2015-03-01

    We recently identified rs3918226 as a hypertension susceptibility locus (-665 C>T), TT homozygosity being associated with higher hypertension risk. T compared with C allele transfected cells had lower endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) expression. In the family-based Flemish Study on Environment, Genes and Health Outcomes (50.9% women; mean age 40.3 years), we investigated whether 32 TT homozygotes had worse outcomes than 2787 C allele carriers. Over 15 years (median), total and cardiovascular mortality and cardiovascular and coronary events amounted to 269 (9.5%), 98 (3.5%), 247 (8.8%) and 120 (4.3%), respectively. While accounting for family clusters, the hazard ratios associated with TT homozygosity were 4.11 (P=0.0052) for cardiovascular mortality (4 deaths), 2.75 (P=0.0067) for cardiovascular events (7 endpoints) and 3.10 (P=0.022) for coronary events (4 endpoints). With adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, these hazard ratios were 6.01 (P=0.0003), 2.64 (P=0.0091) and 2.89 (P=0.010), respectively. Analyses unadjusted for blood pressure and antihypertensive treatment produced consistent results. For all fatal plus nonfatal cardiovascular events, the positive predictive value, attributable risk and population-attributable risk associated with TT homozygosity were 21.9, 61.5 and 2.0%, respectively. In conclusion, TT homozygosity at the position -665 in the eNOS promoter predicts adverse outcomes, independent of blood pressure and other risk factors. PMID:25102225

  13. Time Preferences Predict Mortality among HIV-Infected Adults Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in Kenya

    PubMed Central

    Thirumurthy, Harsha; Hayashi, Kami; Linnemayr, Sebastian; Vreeman, Rachel C.; Levin, Irwin P.; Bangsberg, David R.; Brewer, Noel T.

    2015-01-01

    Background Identifying characteristics of HIV-infected adults likely to have poor treatment outcomes can be useful for targeting interventions efficiently. Research in economics and psychology suggests that individuals’ intertemporal time preferences, which indicate the extent to which they trade-off immediate vs. future cost and benefits, can influence various health behaviors. While there is empirical support for the association between time preferences and various non-HIV health behaviors and outcomes, the extent to which time preferences predict outcomes of those receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) has not been examined previously. Methods HIV-infected adults initiating ART were enrolled at a health facility in Kenya. Participants’ time preferences were measured at enrollment and used to classify them as having either a low or high discount rate for future benefits. At 48 weeks, we assessed mortality and ART adherence, as measured by Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS). Logistic regression models adjusting for socio-economic characteristics and risk factors were used to determine the association between time preferences and mortality as well as MEMS adherence ≥90%. Results Overall, 44% (96/220) of participants were classified as having high discount rates. Participants with high discount rates had significantly higher 48-week mortality than participants with low discount rates (9.3% vs. 3.1%; adjusted odds ratio 3.84; 95% CI 1.03, 14.50). MEMS adherence ≥90% was similar for participants with high vs. low discount rates (42.3% vs. 49.6%, AOR 0.70; 95% CI 0.40, 1.25). Conclusion High discount rates were associated with significantly higher risk of mortality among HIV-infected patients initiating ART. Greater use of time preference measures may improve identification of patients at risk of poor clinical outcomes. More research is needed to further identify mechanisms of action and also to build upon and test the generalizability of this finding

  14. Nonpermissive HLA-DPB1 disparity is a significant independent risk factor for mortality after unrelated hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

    PubMed

    Crocchiolo, Roberto; Zino, Elisabetta; Vago, Luca; Oneto, Rosi; Bruno, Barbara; Pollichieni, Simona; Sacchi, Nicoletta; Sormani, Maria Pia; Marcon, Jessica; Lamparelli, Teresa; Fanin, Renato; Garbarino, Lucia; Miotti, Valeria; Bandini, Giuseppe; Bosi, Alberto; Ciceri, Fabio; Bacigalupo, Andrea; Fleischhauer, Katharina

    2009-08-13

    The importance of donor-recipient human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DPB1 matching for the clinical outcome of unrelated hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is controversial. We have previously described an algorithm for nonpermissive HLA-DPB1 disparities involving HLA-DPB1*0901,*1001,*1701,*0301,*1401,*4501, based on T-cell alloreactivity patterns. By revisiting the immunogenicity of HLA-DPB1*02, a modified algorithm was developed and retrospectively tested in 621 unrelated HSCTs facilitated through the Italian Registry for oncohematologic adult patients. The modified algorithm proved to be markedly more predictive of outcome than the original one, with significantly higher Kaplan-Meier probabilities of 2-year survival in permissive compared with nonpermissive transplantations (55% vs 39%, P = .005). This was the result of increased adjusted hazards of nonrelapse mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.74; confidence interval [CI], 1.19-2.53; P = .004) but not of relapse (HR = 1.02; CI, 0.73-1.42; P = .92). The increase in the hazards of overall mortality by nonpermissive HLA-DPB1 disparity was similar in 10 of 10 (HR = 2.12; CI, 1.23-3.64; P = .006) and 9 of 10 allele-matched transplantations (HR = 2.21; CI, 1.28-3.80; P = .004), both in early-stage and in advanced-stage disease. These data call for revisiting current HLA matching strategies for unrelated HSCT, suggesting that searches should be directed up-front toward identification of HLA-DPB1 permissive, 10 of 10 or 9 of 10 matched donors. PMID:19515726

  15. Does adding variceal status to the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score improve its performance in predicting mortality in cirrhosis?

    PubMed

    Fan, Xiaoli; Wen, Maoyao; Shen, Yi; Wang, Wanqin; Yang, Xiaoxue; Yang, Li

    2016-09-01

    The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is widely used worldwide to predict outcomes across a broad spectrum of liver diseases, mainly cirrhosis. Portal hypertension and variceal bleed are significant causes of morbidity and mortality in cirrhotic patients, although the variceal status is not incorporated into the classical CTP score. We sought to determine whether the inclusion of variceal status, specifically the Child-Turcotte-Pugh-Kumar (CTPK) score, would improve the utility of the classical CTP score to predict the clinical outcomes of cirrhotic patients in a single but high-volume center in China.We retrospectively analyzed the records of 253 patients from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2014 and performed follow-up for at least 12 months. The CTPK score and the CTP score were obtained as soon as possible after the patient's admission. Telephone follow-up was performed to assess survival situations.At 3 and 12 months, the cumulative number of deaths was 9.1% (n = 23) and 13.8% (n = 35), respectively. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazards models, the CTPK score was independently associated with death within 3 and 12 months after adjusting for potential confounders. The predictive ability related to the 2 scores was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) respectively. At 3 months of enrollment, the AUCs of CTPK and CTP were 0.814 and 0.838, respectively. At 12 months of enrollment, the AUCs of CTPK and CTP were 0.825 and 0.840, respectively. No significant difference between time points was observed. Both the CTPK score and the CTP score displayed prognostic value in cirrhotic patients, as the Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the CTPK score could clearly discriminate patients in the intermediate term (P < 0.001).The CTPK score provides reliable prediction of mortality in Chinese cirrhotic patients for both short-term and medium-term prognoses, although it is not superior to the CTP score. Therefore, the CTP

  16. Does adding variceal status to the Child–Turcotte–Pugh score improve its performance in predicting mortality in cirrhosis?

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Xiaoli; Wen, Maoyao; Shen, Yi; Wang, Wanqin; Yang, Xiaoxue; Yang, Li

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The Child–Turcotte–Pugh (CTP) score is widely used worldwide to predict outcomes across a broad spectrum of liver diseases, mainly cirrhosis. Portal hypertension and variceal bleed are significant causes of morbidity and mortality in cirrhotic patients, although the variceal status is not incorporated into the classical CTP score. We sought to determine whether the inclusion of variceal status, specifically the Child–Turcotte–Pugh–Kumar (CTPK) score, would improve the utility of the classical CTP score to predict the clinical outcomes of cirrhotic patients in a single but high-volume center in China. We retrospectively analyzed the records of 253 patients from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2014 and performed follow-up for at least 12 months. The CTPK score and the CTP score were obtained as soon as possible after the patient's admission. Telephone follow-up was performed to assess survival situations. At 3 and 12 months, the cumulative number of deaths was 9.1% (n = 23) and 13.8% (n = 35), respectively. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazards models, the CTPK score was independently associated with death within 3 and 12 months after adjusting for potential confounders. The predictive ability related to the 2 scores was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) respectively. At 3 months of enrollment, the AUCs of CTPK and CTP were 0.814 and 0.838, respectively. At 12 months of enrollment, the AUCs of CTPK and CTP were 0.825 and 0.840, respectively. No significant difference between time points was observed. Both the CTPK score and the CTP score displayed prognostic value in cirrhotic patients, as the Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the CTPK score could clearly discriminate patients in the intermediate term (P < 0.001). The CTPK score provides reliable prediction of mortality in Chinese cirrhotic patients for both short-term and medium-term prognoses, although it is not superior to the CTP

  17. Quantitative and Morphological Measures May Predict Growth and Mortality During Prenatal Growth in Japanese Quails

    PubMed Central

    Arora, Kashmiri L.; Vatsalya, Vatsalya

    2014-01-01

    Growth pattern and mortality rate during the embryonic phase of avian species are difficult to recognize and predict. Determination of such measures and associated events may enhance our understanding of characteristics involved in the growth and hatching process. Furthermore, some quantitative measures could validate morphological determinants during the embryonic phase and predict the course of normal growth and alterations. Our aim was to characterize quantitative growth of embryos and to establish baseline embryonic standards for use in comparative and pathological research during the prenatal life of Japanese quail. Day 10 was a landmark timeline for initiation of extensive anatomical changes in growth and transformation. Wet and dry weights were positively correlated with each other and inversely correlated with water content (p = 0.05). Following d10, the water content decreased progressively, whereas, dry and wet weights increased with increasing age. Velocity of growth in wet and dry weights was evident starting d6, spiked at d11 and d15 and then declined before hatching on d16. Organic and inorganic contents of embryos were positively associated with age. Progressive increase in the organic to inorganic ratio with age was evident after d5, spiked on d9, d13 and d16. Accurate determinations of prenatal growth processes could serve as valuable tools in identifying morphological developments and characterization of prenatal growth and mortality, thus enhancing the reproductive efficiency of the breeding colony and the postnatal robustness of the offspring. PMID:25285101

  18. explICU: A web-based visualization and predictive modeling toolkit for mortality in intensive care patients.

    PubMed

    Chen, Robert; Kumar, Vikas; Fitch, Natalie; Jagadish, Jitesh; Lifan Zhang; Dunn, William; Duen Horng Chau

    2015-01-01

    Preventing mortality in intensive care units (ICUs) has been a top priority in American hospitals. Predictive modeling has been shown to be effective in prediction of mortality based upon data from patients' past medical histories from electronic health records (EHRs). Furthermore, visualization of timeline events is imperative in the ICU setting in order to quickly identify trends in patient histories that may lead to mortality. With the increasing adoption of EHRs, a wealth of medical data is becoming increasingly available for secondary uses such as data exploration and predictive modeling. While data exploration and predictive modeling are useful for finding risk factors in ICU patients, the process is time consuming and requires a high level of computer programming ability. We propose explICU, a web service that hosts EHR data, displays timelines of patient events based upon user-specified preferences, performs predictive modeling in the back end, and displays results to the user via intuitive, interactive visualizations.

  19. Performance status and comorbidity predict transplant-related mortality after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation.

    PubMed

    Artz, Andrew S; Pollyea, Daniel A; Kocherginsky, Masha; Stock, Wendy; Rich, Elizabeth; Odenike, Olatoyosi; Zimmerman, Todd; Smith, Sonali; Godley, Lucy; Thirman, Michael; Daugherty, Christopher; Extermann, Martine; Larson, Richard; van Besien, Koen

    2006-09-01

    Comorbidity measurements have recently been used to improve estimation of tolerance to allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We sought to determine the independent effect of comorbidity and performance status on HCT outcome and to devise a simple risk classification system for transplant-related mortality. We analyzed 105 consecutively enrolled patients who underwent HCT and received reduced intensity conditioning with fludarabine, melphalan, and alemtuzumab. Comorbid conditions were tabulated using 2 scales, the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the Kaplan-Feinstein Scale (KFS). Comorbid conditions were found in 47% of patients by the KFS and in 27% by the CCI (P < .001). Using the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (PS) scale, 34% had a PS score >0 (range, 0-2). A simple scale combining the KFS and PS enabled separation of high- from low-risk patients, with 6-month cumulative incidences 50% and 15%, respectively for transplant-related mortality (P = .001) and enhanced prognostic power over the CCI alone (P = .018). Prospective studies evaluating more comprehensive functional and comorbidity measurements are warranted.

  20. Personalized Mortality Prediction Driven by Electronic Medical Data and a Patient Similarity Metric

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Joon; Maslove, David M.; Dubin, Joel A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Clinical outcome prediction normally employs static, one-size-fits-all models that perform well for the average patient but are sub-optimal for individual patients with unique characteristics. In the era of digital healthcare, it is feasible to dynamically personalize decision support by identifying and analyzing similar past patients, in a way that is analogous to personalized product recommendation in e-commerce. Our objectives were: 1) to prove that analyzing only similar patients leads to better outcome prediction performance than analyzing all available patients, and 2) to characterize the trade-off between training data size and the degree of similarity between the training data and the index patient for whom prediction is to be made. Methods and Findings We deployed a cosine-similarity-based patient similarity metric (PSM) to an intensive care unit (ICU) database to identify patients that are most similar to each patient and subsequently to custom-build 30-day mortality prediction models. Rich clinical and administrative data from the first day in the ICU from 17,152 adult ICU admissions were analyzed. The results confirmed that using data from only a small subset of most similar patients for training improves predictive performance in comparison with using data from all available patients. The results also showed that when too few similar patients are used for training, predictive performance degrades due to the effects of small sample sizes. Our PSM-based approach outperformed well-known ICU severity of illness scores. Although the improved prediction performance is achieved at the cost of increased computational burden, Big Data technologies can help realize personalized data-driven decision support at the point of care. Conclusions The present study provides crucial empirical evidence for the promising potential of personalized data-driven decision support systems. With the increasing adoption of electronic medical record (EMR) systems, our

  1. Mortality Risk Prediction by an Insurance Company and Long-Term Follow-Up of 62,000 Men

    PubMed Central

    Sijbrands, Eric J. G.; Tornij, Erik; Homsma, Sietske J.

    2009-01-01

    Background Insurance companies use medical information to classify the mortality risk of applicants. Adding genetic tests to this assessment is currently being debated. This debate would be more meaningful, if results of present-day risk prediction were known. Therefore, we compared the predicted with the observed mortality of men who applied for life insurance, and determined the prognostic value of the risk assessment. Methods Long-term follow-up was available for 62,334 male applicants whose mortality risk was predicted with medical evaluation and they were assigned to five groups with increasing risk from 1 to 5. We calculated all cause standardized mortality ratios relative to the Dutch population and compared groups with Cox's regression. We compared the discriminative ability of risk assessments as indicated by a concordance index (c). Results In 844,815 person years we observed 3,433 deaths. The standardized mortality relative to the Dutch male population was 0.76 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.78). The standardized mortality ratios ranged from 0.54 in risk group 1 to 2.37 in group 5. A large number of risk factors and diseases were significantly associated with increased mortality. The algorithm of prediction was significantly, but only slightly better than summation of the number of disorders and risk factors (c-index, 0.64 versus 0.60, P<0.001). Conclusions Men applying for insurance clearly had better survival relative to the general population. Readily available medical evaluation enabled accurate prediction of the mortality risk of large groups, but the deceased men could not have been identified with the applied prediction method. PMID:19421319

  2. Posterior Predictive Checks for Conditional Independence between Response Time and Accuracy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bolsinova, Maria; Tijmstra, Jesper

    2016-01-01

    Conditional independence (CI) between response time and response accuracy is a fundamental assumption of many joint models for time and accuracy used in educational measurement. In this study, posterior predictive checks (PPCs) are proposed for testing this assumption. These PPCs are based on three discrepancy measures reflecting different…

  3. Serum angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 is an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality following open surgical repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

    PubMed Central

    Nie, Wanpin; Wang, Yan; Yao, Kai; Wang, Zheng; Wu, Hao

    2016-01-01

    Open surgical repair (OSR) is a conventional surgical method used in the repair a ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA); however, OSR results in high perioperative mortality rates. The level of serum angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) has been reported to be an independent risk factor for postoperative in-hospital mortality following major cardiopulmonary surgery. In the present study, the association of serum ACE2 levels with postoperative in-hospital mortality was investigated in patients undergoing OSR for ruptured AAA. The study enrolled 84 consecutive patients underwent OSR for ruptured AAA and were subsequently treated in the intensive care unit. Patients who succumbed postoperatively during hospitalization were defined as non-survivors. Serum ACE2 levels were measured in all patients prior to and following the surgery using ELISA kits. The results indicated that non-survivors showed significantly lower mean preoperative and postoperative serum ACE2 levels when compared with those in survivors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis also showed that, subsequent to adjusting for potential confounders, the serum ACE2 level on preoperative day 1 showed a significant negative association with the postoperative in-hospital mortality. This was confirmed by multivariate hazard ratio analysis, which showed that, subsequent to adjusting for the various potential confounders, the risk of postoperative in-hospital mortality remained significantly higher in the two lowest serum ACE2 level quartiles compared with that in the highest quartile on preoperative day 1. In conclusion, the present study provided the first evidence supporting that the serum ACE2 level is an independent risk factor for the in-hospital mortality following OSR for ruptured AAA. Furthermore, low serum ACE2 levels on preoperative day 1 were found to be associated with increased postoperative in-hospital mortality. Therefore, the serum ACE2 level on preoperative day 1 may be a potential

  4. Observable impairments predict mortality of captured and released sockeye salmon at various temperatures.

    PubMed

    Gale, Marika Kirstin; Hinch, Scott G; Cooke, Steven J; Donaldson, Michael R; Eliason, Erika J; Jeffries, Ken M; Martins, Eduardo G; Patterson, David A

    2014-01-01

    Migrating adult sockeye salmon frequently encounter commercial and recreational fishing gear, from which they may be landed, escape or be intentionally released. In this experiment, migratory adult sockeye salmon were exposed to simulated capture-release in fresh water, including 3 min of exhaustive exercise and 60 s of air exposure at three ecologically relevant water temperatures (13, 16 and 19°C) to understand how thermal and capture-release stressors may interact to increase mortality risk. Water temperature and sex were the factors that best predicted 24 and 48 h survival, with females in the warmest temperature group experiencing the greatest mortality. Capture-release treatment including air exposure was associated with equilibrium loss and depressed ventilation rates at release; the probability of fish surviving for 24 h after simulated capture-release was >50% if the duration of equilibrium loss was <2 min or ventilation frequency was >1 breath s(-1). Higher haematocrit and plasma lactate as well as lower mean cell haemoglobin concentration and plasma sodium and chloride 30 min after simulated capture-release were also significant predictors of 24 h survival. Together, the results demonstrate that simple observations that are consistent with physiological disturbance can be used as predictors for post-release short-term survival for sockeye salmon. The markedly higher post-stressor mortality observed in females demonstrates that managers should consider sex-specific variation in response to different fisheries interactions, particularly in the face of climate change.

  5. Observable impairments predict mortality of captured and released sockeye salmon at various temperatures.

    PubMed

    Gale, Marika Kirstin; Hinch, Scott G; Cooke, Steven J; Donaldson, Michael R; Eliason, Erika J; Jeffries, Ken M; Martins, Eduardo G; Patterson, David A

    2014-01-01

    Migrating adult sockeye salmon frequently encounter commercial and recreational fishing gear, from which they may be landed, escape or be intentionally released. In this experiment, migratory adult sockeye salmon were exposed to simulated capture-release in fresh water, including 3 min of exhaustive exercise and 60 s of air exposure at three ecologically relevant water temperatures (13, 16 and 19°C) to understand how thermal and capture-release stressors may interact to increase mortality risk. Water temperature and sex were the factors that best predicted 24 and 48 h survival, with females in the warmest temperature group experiencing the greatest mortality. Capture-release treatment including air exposure was associated with equilibrium loss and depressed ventilation rates at release; the probability of fish surviving for 24 h after simulated capture-release was >50% if the duration of equilibrium loss was <2 min or ventilation frequency was >1 breath s(-1). Higher haematocrit and plasma lactate as well as lower mean cell haemoglobin concentration and plasma sodium and chloride 30 min after simulated capture-release were also significant predictors of 24 h survival. Together, the results demonstrate that simple observations that are consistent with physiological disturbance can be used as predictors for post-release short-term survival for sockeye salmon. The markedly higher post-stressor mortality observed in females demonstrates that managers should consider sex-specific variation in response to different fisheries interactions, particularly in the face of climate change. PMID:27293650

  6. Observable impairments predict mortality of captured and released sockeye salmon at various temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Gale, Marika Kirstin; Hinch, Scott G.; Cooke, Steven J.; Donaldson, Michael R.; Eliason, Erika J.; Jeffries, Ken M.; Martins, Eduardo G.; Patterson, David A.

    2014-01-01

    Migrating adult sockeye salmon frequently encounter commercial and recreational fishing gear, from which they may be landed, escape or be intentionally released. In this experiment, migratory adult sockeye salmon were exposed to simulated capture–release in fresh water, including 3 min of exhaustive exercise and 60 s of air exposure at three ecologically relevant water temperatures (13, 16 and 19°C) to understand how thermal and capture–release stressors may interact to increase mortality risk. Water temperature and sex were the factors that best predicted 24 and 48 h survival, with females in the warmest temperature group experiencing the greatest mortality. Capture–release treatment including air exposure was associated with equilibrium loss and depressed ventilation rates at release; the probability of fish surviving for 24 h after simulated capture–release was >50% if the duration of equilibrium loss was <2 min or ventilation frequency was >1 breath s−1. Higher haematocrit and plasma lactate as well as lower mean cell haemoglobin concentration and plasma sodium and chloride 30 min after simulated capture–release were also significant predictors of 24 h survival. Together, the results demonstrate that simple observations that are consistent with physiological disturbance can be used as predictors for post-release short-term survival for sockeye salmon. The markedly higher post-stressor mortality observed in females demonstrates that managers should consider sex-specific variation in response to different fisheries interactions, particularly in the face of climate change. PMID:27293650

  7. HBV-DNA levels predict overall mortality in HIV/HBV coinfected individuals.

    PubMed

    Nikolopoulos, Georgios K; Paraskevis, Dimitrios; Psichogiou, Mina; Hatzakis, Angelos

    2016-03-01

    The coinfection of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has been associated with increased death rates. However, the relevant research has mostly relied on serologic HBV testing [HBV surface antigen (HBsAg)]. The aim of this work was to explore the relationship of HBV viraemia with overall mortality among HIV/HBV coinfected individuals. The analysis included 1,609 HIV seropositives of a previously described cohort (1984-2003) with limited exposure to tenofovir (12%) and a median follow-up of approximately 5 years. Those with persistent expression of HBsAg were further tested for HBV-DNA. The data were analyzed using Poisson regression models. Totally, 101 participants were chronic carriers of HBsAg (6.28%). Of these, 81 were tested for HBV-DNA. The median HBV-DNA levels were 3.81 log (base-10) International Units (IU)/ml. A third (31%) of those tested for HBV-DNA had received tenofovir. Before developing acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), the adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) for all-cause mortality of coinfected patients with HBV viraemia above the median value versus the HIV monoinfected group was 3.44 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05-11.27]. Multivariable regressions in the coinfected group only (n = 81) showed that one log-10 increase in HBV-DNA levels was associated with an elevated risk for death (IRR: 1.24, 95%CI: 1.03-1.49). HBV-DNA levels predict overall mortality in the setting of HIV/HBV coinfection, especially during the period before developing AIDS, and could thus help prioritize needs and determine the frequency of medical monitoring.

  8. New algorithm of mortality risk prediction for cardiovascular patients admitted in intensive care unit

    PubMed Central

    Moridani, Mohammad Karimi; Setarehdan, Seyed Kamaledin; Nasrabadi, Ali Motie; Hajinasrollah, Esmaeil

    2015-01-01

    Objective: Recognizing and managing of admitted patients in intensive care unit (ICU) with high risk of mortality is important for maximizing the patient’s outcomes and minimizing the costs. This study is based on linear and nonlinear analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) to design a classifier for mortality prediction of cardio vascular patients admitted to ICU. Methods: In this study we evaluated 90 cardiovascular ICU patients (45 males and 45 females). Linear and nonlinear features of HRV include SDNN, NN50, low frequency (LF), high frequency (HF), correlation dimension, approximate entropy; detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and Poincaré plot were analyzed. Paired sample t-test was used for statistical comparison. Finally, we fed these features to the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) to find a robust classification method to classify the patients with low risk and high risk of death. Results: Almost all HRV features measuring heart rate complexity were significantly decreased in the episode of half-hour before death. The results generated based on SVM and MLP classifiers show that SVM classifier is enable to distinguish high and low risk episodes with the total classification sensitivity, specificity, positive productivity and accuracy rate of 97.3%, 98.1%, 92.5% and 99.3%, respectively. Conclusions: The results of the current study suggest that nonlinear features of the HRV signals could be show nonlinear dynamics. PMID:26309114

  9. Predicting mortality after acute coronary syndromes in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

    PubMed Central

    Smeeth, Liam; Pearce, Neil; Herrett, Emily; Timmis, Adam; Hemingway, Harry; Wedzicha, Jadwiga; Quint, Jennifer K

    2016-01-01

    Objective To assess the accuracy of Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) scores in predicting mortality at 6 months for people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and to investigate how it might be improved. Methods Data were obtained on 481 849 patients with acute coronary syndrome admitted to UK hospitals between January 2003 and June 2013 from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) database. We compared risk of death between patients with COPD and those without COPD at 6 months, adjusting for predicted risk of death. We then assessed whether several modifications improved the accuracy of the GRACE score for people with COPD. Results The risk of death after adjusting for GRACE score predicted that risk of death was higher for patients with COPD than that for other patients (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.33). Adding smoking into the GRACE score model did not improve accuracy for patients with COPD. Either adding COPD into the model (relative risk (RR) 1.00, 0.94 to 1.02) or multiplying the GRACE score by 1.3 resulted in better performance (RR 0.99, 0.96 to 1.01). Conclusions GRACE scores underestimate risk of death for people with COPD. A more accurate prediction of risk of death can be obtained by adding COPD into the GRACE score equation, or by multiplying the GRACE score predicted risk of death by 1.3 for people with COPD. This means that one third of patients with COPD currently classified as low risk should be classified as moderate risk, and could be considered for more aggressive early treatment after non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction or unstable angina. PMID:27177534

  10. The clinical outcomes and predictive factors for in-hospital mortality in non-neutropenic patients with candidemia

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Tsai-Yu; Hung, Chia-Yen; Shie, Shian-Sen; Chou, Pai-Chien; Kuo, Chih-Hsi; Chung, Fu-Tsai; Lo, Yu-Lun; Lin, Shu-Min

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Recent epidemiologic studies have showed that candidemia is an important nosocomial infection in hospitalized patients. The majority of candidemia patients were non-neutropenic rather than neutropenic status. The aim of this study was to determine the clinical outcome of non-neutropenic patients with candidemia and to measure the contributing factors for mortality. A total of 163 non-neutropenic patients with candidemia during January 2010 to December 2013 were retrospectively enrolled. The patients’ risk factors for mortality, clinical outcomes, treatment regimens, and Candida species were analyzed. The overall mortality was 54.6%. Candida albicans was the most frequent Candida species (n = 83; 50.9% of patients). Under multivariate analyses, hemodialysis (OR, 4.554; 95% CI, 1.464–14.164) and the use of amphotericin B deoxycholate (OR, 8.709; 95% CI, 1.587–47.805) were independent factors associated with mortality. In contrast, abdominal surgery (OR, 0.360; 95% CI, 0.158–0.816) was associated with a better outcome. The overall mortality is still high in non-neutropenic patients with candidemia. Hemodialysis and use of amphotericin B deoxycholate were independent factors associated with mortality, whereas prior abdominal surgery was associated with a better outcome. PMID:27281087

  11. Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Rocha, Eduardo Arrais; Pereira, Francisca Tatiana Moreira; Abreu, José Sebastião; Lima, José Wellington O.; Monteiro, Marcelo de Paula Martins; Rocha Neto, Almino Cavalcante; Goés, Camilla Viana Arrais; Farias, Ana Gardênia P.; Rodrigues Sobrinho, Carlos Roberto Martins; Quidute, Ana Rosa Pinto; Scanavacca, Maurício Ibrahim

    2015-01-01

    Background 30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes. Objective This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). Methods Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves. Results The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping. Conclusion We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT. PMID:26559987

  12. Darcy’s law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McDowell, Nate G.; Allen, Craig D.

    2015-01-01

    Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle11,12. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology13, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

  13. Ki-67 Is an Independent Predictor of Metastasis and Cause-Specific Mortality for Prostate Cancer Patients Treated on Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 94-08

    SciTech Connect

    Verhoven, Bret; Yan, Yan; Ritter, Mark; Khor, Li-Yan; Hammond, Elizabeth; Jones, Christopher; Amin, Mahul; Bahary, Jean-Paul; Zeitzer, Kenneth; Pollack, Alan

    2013-06-01

    Purpose: The association of Ki-67 staining index (Ki67-SI) with overall survival (OS), disease-specific mortality (DSM), distant metastasis (DM), and biochemical failure (BF) was examined in men with favorable- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer receiving radiation therapy (RT) alone or with short-term androgen deprivation (ADT) in Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 94-08. Methods and Materials: 468 patients (23.6%) on RTOG 94-08 had sufficient tissue for Ki67-SI analysis. The median follow-up time was 7.9 years. Ki67-SI was determined by immunohistochemistry and quantified manually and by image analysis. Correlative analysis versus clinical outcome was performed using the third quartile (≥Q3) cutpoint. A proportional hazards multivariable analysis (MVA) dichotomized covariates in accordance with trial stratification and randomization criteria. Results: In MVAs adjusted for all treatment covariates, high Ki67-SI (≥Q3) was correlated with increased DSM (hazard ratio [HR] 2.48, P=.03), DM (HR 3.5, P=.002), and BF (HR 3.55, P<.0001). MVA revealed similar Ki67-associated hazard ratios in each separate treatment arm for DSM, DM, and BF; these reached significance only for DM in the RT-alone arm and for BF in both arms. Ki67-SI was not a significant predictor of intraprostatic recurrence assessed by repeated biopsy 2 years after treatment. Patients with a high or low Ki67-SI seemed to experience a similar relative benefit from the addition of ADT to radiation. Conclusions: High Ki67-SI independently predicts for increased DSM, DM, and protocol BF in primarily intermediate-risk prostate cancer patients treated with RT with or without ADT on RTOG 94-08 but does not predict for local recurrence or for increased relative benefit from ADT. This and prior studies lend support for the use of Ki67-SI as a stratification factor in future trials.

  14. Density-Independent Mortality and Increasing Plant Diversity Are Associated with Differentiation of Taraxacum officinale into r- and K-Strategists

    PubMed Central

    Lipowsky, Annett; Roscher, Christiane; Schumacher, Jens; Schmid, Bernhard

    2012-01-01

    Background Differential selection between clones of apomictic species may result in ecological differentiation without mutation and recombination, thus offering a simple system to study adaptation and life-history evolution in plants. Methodology/Principal Findings We caused density-independent mortality by weeding to colonizer populations of the largely apomictic Taraxacum officinale (Asteraceae) over a 5-year period in a grassland biodiversity experiment (Jena Experiment). We compared the offspring of colonizer populations with resident populations deliberately sown into similar communities. Plants raised from cuttings and seeds of colonizer and resident populations were grown under uniform conditions. Offspring from colonizer populations had higher reproductive output, which was in general agreement with predictions of r-selection theory. Offspring from resident populations had higher root and leaf biomass, fewer flower heads and higher individual seed mass as predicted under K-selection. Plants grown from cuttings and seeds differed to some degree in the strength, but not in the direction, of their response to the r- vs. K-selection regime. More diverse communities appeared to exert stronger K-selection on resident populations in plants grown from cuttings, while we did not find significant effects of increasing species richness on plants grown from seeds. Conclusions/Significance Differentiation into r- and K-strategists suggests that clones with characteristics of r-strategists were selected in regularly weeded plots through rapid colonization, while increasing plant diversity favoured the selection of clones with characteristics of K-strategists in resident populations. Our results show that different selection pressures may result in a rapid genetic differentiation within a largely apomictic species. Even under the assumption that colonizer and resident populations, respectively, happened to be r- vs. K-selected already at the start of the experiment, our

  15. Physical activity assessed in routine care predicts mortality after a COPD hospitalisation

    PubMed Central

    Moy, Marilyn L.; Gould, Michael K.; Liu, In-Lu Amy; Lee, Janet S.

    2016-01-01

    The independent relationship between physical inactivity and risk of death after an index chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospitalisation is unknown. We conducted a retrospective cohort study in a large integrated healthcare system. Patients were included if they were hospitalised for COPD between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2011. All-cause mortality in the 12 months after discharge was the primary outcome. Physical activity, expressed as self-reported minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA), was routinely assessed at outpatient visits prior to hospitalisation. 1727 (73%) patients were inactive (0 min of MVPA per week), 412 (17%) were insufficiently active (1–149 min of MVPA per week) and 231 (10%) were active (≥150 min of MVPA per week). Adjusted Cox regression models assessed risk of death across the MVPA categories. Among 2370 patients (55% females and mean age 73±11 years), there were 464 (20%) deaths. Patients who were insufficiently active or active had a 28% (adjusted HR 0.72 (95% CI 0.54–0.97), p=0.03) and 47% (adjusted HR 0.53 (95% CI 0.34–0.84), p<0.01) lower risk of death, respectively, in the 12 months following an index COPD hospitalisation compared to inactive patients. Any level of MVPA is associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality after a COPD hospitalisation. Routine assessment of physical activity in clinical care would identify persons at high risk for dying after COPD hospitalisation. PMID:27730174

  16. Prediction of Hospital Acute Myocardial Infarction and Heart Failure 30-Day Mortality Rates Using Publicly Reported Performance Measures

    PubMed Central

    Aaronson, David S.; Bardach, Naomi S.; Lin, Grace A.; Chattopadhyay, Arpita; Goldman, L. Elizabeth; Dudley, R. Adams

    2014-01-01

    Objective To identify an approach to summarizing publicly reported hospital performance data for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or heart failure (HF) that best predicts current year hospital mortality rates. Setting A total of 1,868 U.S. hospitals reporting process and outcome measures for AMI and HF to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) from July 2005 to June 2006 (Year 0) and July 2006 to June 2007 (Year 1). Design Observational cohort study measuring the percentage variation in Year 1 hospital 30-day risk-adjusted mortality rate explained by denominator-based weighted composite scores summarizing hospital Year 0 performance. Data Collection Data were prospectively collected from hospitalcompare.gov. Results Percentage variation in Year 1 mortality was best explained by mortality rate alone in Year 0 over other composites including process performance. If only Year 0 mortality rates were reported, and consumers using hospitals in the highest decile of mortality instead chose hospitals in the lowest decile of mortality rate, the number of deaths at 30 days that potentially could have been avoided was 1.31 per 100 patients for AMI and 2.12 for HF (p < .001). Conclusion Public reports focused on 30-day risk-adjusted mortality rate may more directly address policymakers’ goals of facilitating consumer identification of hospitals with better outcomes. PMID:22093186

  17. Skin autofluorescence, a measure of cumulative metabolic stress and advanced glycation end products, predicts mortality in hemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Meerwaldt, Robbert; Hartog, Jasper W L; Graaff, Reindert; Huisman, Roel J; Links, Thera P; den Hollander, Nynke C; Thorpe, Susan R; Baynes, John W; Navis, Gerjan; Gans, Rijk O B; Smit, Andries J

    2005-12-01

    Tissue advanced glycation end products (AGE) are a measure of cumulative metabolic stress and trigger cytokines driven inflammatory reactions. AGE are thought to contribute to the chronic complications of diabetes and ESRD. Tissue autofluorescence is related to the accumulation of AGE. Therefore, skin autofluorescence (AF) may provide prognostic information on mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients. Skin AF was measured noninvasively with an AF reader at baseline in 109 HD patients. Overall and cardiovascular mortality was monitored prospectively during a period of 3 yr. The AF reader was validated against AGE contents in skin biopsies from 29 dialysis patients. Forty-two of the 109 (38.5%) HD patients died. Cox regression analysis showed that AF was an independent predictor of overall and cardiovascular mortality (for overall mortality odds ratio [OR] 3.9), as were pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD; OR 3.1), C-reactive protein (OR 1.1), and serum albumin (OR 0.3). Multivariate analysis revealed that 65% of the variance in AF could be attributed to the independent effects of age, dialysis and renal failure duration, presence of diabetes, triglycerides levels, and C-reactive protein. AF was also independently linked to the presence of CVD at baseline (OR 8.8; P < 0.001). AF correlated with collagen-linked fluorescence (r = 0.71, P < 0.001), pentosidine (r = 0.75, P < 0.001), and carboxy(m)ethyllysine (both r = 0.45, P < 0.01). Skin AF is a strong and independent predictor of mortality in ESRD. This supports a role for AGE as a contributor to mortality and CVD and warrants interventions specifically aimed at AGE accumulation.

  18. Skin autofluorescence, a measure of cumulative metabolic stress and advanced glycation end products, predicts mortality in hemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Meerwaldt, Robbert; Hartog, Jasper W L; Graaff, Reindert; Huisman, Roel J; Links, Thera P; den Hollander, Nynke C; Thorpe, Susan R; Baynes, John W; Navis, Gerjan; Gans, Rijk O B; Smit, Andries J

    2005-12-01

    Tissue advanced glycation end products (AGE) are a measure of cumulative metabolic stress and trigger cytokines driven inflammatory reactions. AGE are thought to contribute to the chronic complications of diabetes and ESRD. Tissue autofluorescence is related to the accumulation of AGE. Therefore, skin autofluorescence (AF) may provide prognostic information on mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients. Skin AF was measured noninvasively with an AF reader at baseline in 109 HD patients. Overall and cardiovascular mortality was monitored prospectively during a period of 3 yr. The AF reader was validated against AGE contents in skin biopsies from 29 dialysis patients. Forty-two of the 109 (38.5%) HD patients died. Cox regression analysis showed that AF was an independent predictor of overall and cardiovascular mortality (for overall mortality odds ratio [OR] 3.9), as were pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD; OR 3.1), C-reactive protein (OR 1.1), and serum albumin (OR 0.3). Multivariate analysis revealed that 65% of the variance in AF could be attributed to the independent effects of age, dialysis and renal failure duration, presence of diabetes, triglycerides levels, and C-reactive protein. AF was also independently linked to the presence of CVD at baseline (OR 8.8; P < 0.001). AF correlated with collagen-linked fluorescence (r = 0.71, P < 0.001), pentosidine (r = 0.75, P < 0.001), and carboxy(m)ethyllysine (both r = 0.45, P < 0.01). Skin AF is a strong and independent predictor of mortality in ESRD. This supports a role for AGE as a contributor to mortality and CVD and warrants interventions specifically aimed at AGE accumulation. PMID:16280473

  19. Assessing predictive capacity and conditional independence of landslide predisposing factors for shallow landslides susceptibility models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, S.; Zêzere, J. L.; Bateira, C.

    2012-04-01

    The aim of this study is to identify the landslide predisposing factors combination, using a bivariate statistical model that best predict landslide susceptibility. The best predictive model should have a good performance in terms of suitability and predictive power, and should be based on landslide predisposing factors that are conditionally independent. The study area is the Santa Marta de Penaguião council (70 km2) located in the Northern Portugal. Several destructive landslides occurred in this area in the last decades promoting landscape degradation and other negative human and economic impacts. A landslide inventory was built in 2005-2009 using aerial photo-interpretation (1/5.000 scale) and field work validation. This inventory contains 767 shallow translational slides. The landslide density is 11 events/square kilometre, and each landslide has, on average, 136 m2 and the depth of the slip surface typically ranges from 1 to 1.5 m. The landslide layer was crossed individually with seven landslide predisposing factors (Aspect; Curvature; Slope Angle; Geomorphological Units; Land Use; Inverse Wetness Index; Lithology) and each class within each predisposing theme was weighted using the Information Value Method. In order to identify the best combination of landslide predisposing factors, all possible combinations were tested which resulted in 120 predictive models. The goodness of fit of each landslide susceptibility model was evaluated by constructing the Success Rate Curves and by computing the Area Under the Curve (AUC). The best landslide susceptibility model was selected according to the model degree of fitness and on the basis of a conditional independence criterion. Two tests were performed to the entire dataset to assess conditional independence: the Overall Conditional Independence (OCI) and the Agterberg & Cheng Conditional Independence Test (ACCIT) (Agterberg and Cheng, 2002). The best landslide susceptibility model was constructed with only three

  20. Mortality Prediction in ICUs Using A Novel Time-Slicing Cox Regression Method

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yuan; Chen, Wenlin; Heard, Kevin; Kollef, Marin H.; Bailey, Thomas C.; Cui, Zhicheng; He, Yujie; Lu, Chenyang; Chen, Yixin

    2015-01-01

    Over the last few decades, machine learning and data mining have been increasingly used for clinical prediction in ICUs. However, there is still a huge gap in making full use of the time-series data generated from ICUs. Aiming at filling this gap, we propose a novel approach entitled Time Slicing Cox regression (TS-Cox), which extends the classical Cox regression into a classification method on multi-dimensional time-series. Unlike traditional classifiers such as logistic regression and support vector machines, our model not only incorporates the discriminative features derived from the time-series, but also naturally exploits the temporal orders of these features based on a Cox-like function. Empirical evaluation on MIMIC-II database demonstrates the efficacy of the TS-Cox model. Our TS-Cox model outperforms all other baseline models by a good margin in terms of AUC_PR, sensitivity and PPV, which indicates that TS-Cox may be a promising tool for mortality prediction in ICUs. PMID:26958269

  1. Prediction of hospital mortality by changes in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

    PubMed

    Berzan, E; Mellotte, G; Silke, B

    2015-03-01

    Deterioration of physiological or laboratory variables may provide important prognostic information. We have studied whether a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) value calculated using the (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula) over the hospital admission, would have predictive value. An analysis was performed on all emergency medical hospital episodes (N = 61964) admitted between 1 January 2002 and 31 December 2011. A stepwise logistic regression model examined the relationship between mortality and change in renal function from admission to discharge. The fully adjusted Odds Ratios (OR) for 5 classes of GFR deterioration showed a stepwise increased risk of 30-day death with OR's of 1.42 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.68), 1.59 (1.27, 1.99), 2.71 (2.24, 3.27), 5.56 (4.54, 6.81) and 11.9 (9.0, 15.6) respectively. The change in eGFR during a clinical episode, following an emergency medical admission, powerfully predicts the outcome. PMID:25876302

  2. Mortality Prediction in ICUs Using A Novel Time-Slicing Cox Regression Method.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yuan; Chen, Wenlin; Heard, Kevin; Kollef, Marin H; Bailey, Thomas C; Cui, Zhicheng; He, Yujie; Lu, Chenyang; Chen, Yixin

    2015-01-01

    Over the last few decades, machine learning and data mining have been increasingly used for clinical prediction in ICUs. However, there is still a huge gap in making full use of the time-series data generated from ICUs. Aiming at filling this gap, we propose a novel approach entitled Time Slicing Cox regression (TS-Cox), which extends the classical Cox regression into a classification method on multi-dimensional time-series. Unlike traditional classifiers such as logistic regression and support vector machines, our model not only incorporates the discriminative features derived from the time-series, but also naturally exploits the temporal orders of these features based on a Cox-like function. Empirical evaluation on MIMIC-II database demonstrates the efficacy of the TS-Cox model. Our TS-Cox model outperforms all other baseline models by a good margin in terms of AUC_PR, sensitivity and PPV, which indicates that TS-Cox may be a promising tool for mortality prediction in ICUs.

  3. Heterogeneous postsurgical data analytics for predictive modeling of mortality risks in intensive care units.

    PubMed

    Yun Chen; Hui Yang

    2014-01-01

    The rapid advancements of biomedical instrumentation and healthcare technology have resulted in data-rich environments in hospitals. However, the meaningful information extracted from rich datasets is limited. There is a dire need to go beyond current medical practices, and develop data-driven methods and tools that will enable and help (i) the handling of big data, (ii) the extraction of data-driven knowledge, (iii) the exploitation of acquired knowledge for optimizing clinical decisions. This present study focuses on the prediction of mortality rates in Intensive Care Units (ICU) using patient-specific healthcare recordings. It is worth mentioning that postsurgical monitoring in ICU leads to massive datasets with unique properties, e.g., variable heterogeneity, patient heterogeneity, and time asyncronization. To cope with the challenges in ICU datasets, we developed the postsurgical decision support system with a series of analytical tools, including data categorization, data pre-processing, feature extraction, feature selection, and predictive modeling. Experimental results show that the proposed data-driven methodology outperforms traditional approaches and yields better results based on the evaluation of real-world ICU data from 4000 subjects in the database. This research shows great potentials for the use of data-driven analytics to improve the quality of healthcare services.

  4. Predictive Value of Carotid Distensibility Coefficient for Cardiovascular Diseases and All-Cause Mortality: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Yuan, Chuang; Wang, Jing; Ying, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Aims The aim of the present study is to determine the pooled predictive value of carotid distensibility coefficient (DC) for cardiovascular (CV) diseases and all-cause mortality. Background Arterial stiffness is associated with future CV events. Aortic pulse wave velocity is a commonly used predictor for CV diseases and all-cause mortality; however, its assessment requires specific devices and is not always applicable in all patients. In addition to the aortic artery, the carotid artery is also susceptible to atherosclerosis, and is highly accessible because of the surficial property. Thus, carotid DC, which indicates the intrinsic local stiffness of the carotid artery and may be determined using ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging, is of interest for the prediction. However, the role of carotid DC in the prediction of CV diseases and all-cause mortality has not been thoroughly characterized, and the pooled predictive value of carotid DC remains unclear. Methods A meta-analysis, which included 11 longitudinal studies with 20361 subjects, was performed. Results Carotid DC significantly predicted future total CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality. The pooled risk ratios (RRs) of CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality were 1.19 (1.06–1.35, 95%CI, 9 studies with 18993 subjects), 1.09 (1.01–1.18, 95%CI, 2 studies with 2550 subjects) and 1.65 (1.15–2.37, 95%CI, 6 studies with 3619 subjects), respectively, for the subjects who had the lowest quartile of DC compared with their counterparts who had higher quartiles. For CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality, a decrease in DC of 1 SD increased the risk by 13%, 6% and 41% respectively, whereas a decrease in DC of 1 unit increased the risk by 3%, 1% and 6% respectively. Conclusions Carotid DC is a significant predictor of future CV diseases and all-cause mortality, which may facilitate the identification of high-risk patients for the early diagnosis and prompt treatment of CV diseases

  5. Independence and Interdependence Predict Health and Wellbeing: Divergent Patterns in the United States and Japan

    PubMed Central

    Kitayama, Shinobu; Karasawa, Mayumi; Curhan, Katherine B.; Ryff, Carol D.; Markus, Hazel Rose

    2010-01-01

    A cross-cultural survey was used to examine two hypotheses designed to link culture to wellbeing and health. The first hypothesis states that people are motivated toward prevalent cultural mandates of either independence (personal control) in the United States or interdependence (relational harmony) in Japan. As predicted, Americans with compromised personal control and Japanese with strained relationships reported high perceived constraint. The second hypothesis holds that people achieve wellbeing and health through actualizing the respective cultural mandates in their modes of being. As predicted, the strongest predictor of wellbeing and health was personal control in the United States, but the absence of relational strain in Japan. All analyses controlled for age, gender, educational attainment, and personality traits. The overall pattern of findings underscores culturally distinct pathways (independent versus interdependent) in achieving the positive life outcomes. PMID:21833228

  6. Infant Maltreatment-Related Mortality in Alaska: Correcting the Count and Using Birth Certificates to Predict Mortality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parrish, Jared W.; Gessner, Bradford D.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: To accurately count the number of infant maltreatment-related fatalities and to use information from the birth certificates to predict infant maltreatment-related deaths. Methods: A population-based retrospective cohort study of infants born in Alaska for the years 1992 through 2005 was conducted. Risk factor variables were ascertained…

  7. Health-related quality of life predicts mortality in older but not younger patients following cardiac surgery.

    PubMed

    Ho, P Michael; Masoudi, Frederick A; Peterson, Pamela N; Shroyer, A Laurie; McCarthy, Martin; Grover, Frederick L; Hammermeister, Karl E; Rumsfeld, John S

    2005-01-01

    The investigators assessed preoperative health-related quality of life as a predictor of 6-month mortality after cardiac surgery in older (65 years of age and older) vs. younger patients. Multivariable regression, stratified by age groups, was used to compare the association between preoperative Physical Component Summary and Mental Component Summary scores from the Short Form-36 health status survey and mortality. In multivariable analyses of older patients, lower preoperative Physical Component Summary (odds ratio, 1.54; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-2.00; p=0.01) and Mental Component Summary (odds ratio, 1.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.49; p=0.03) scores were independently associated with mortality. In contrast, neither Physical Component Summary (p=0.82) nor Mental Component Summary (p=0.79) scores were associated with mortality in the younger subgroup. This study demonstrated that preoperative health status is an independent predictor of mortality following cardiac surgery in older but not younger patients. Preoperative patient self-report of health status may be particularly useful in refining risk stratification and informing decision-making before and following cardiac surgery in older patients.

  8. Complement Factor 3 Could Be an Independent Risk Factor for Mortality in Patients with HBV Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Geng-lin; Zhang, Ting; Ye, Yi-nong; Liu, Jing; Zhang, Xiao-hong; Xie, Chan; Peng, Liang; Gao, Zhi-liang

    2016-01-01

    The complement is thought to be involved in the pathogenesis of multiple liver disorders. However, its role in patients with HBV related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) remains unclear. Serum levels of the third and fourth complement components (C3, C4) and complement function (CH50) were examined in this prospective, observational study. Associations between their expression and disease activity were analyzed. Survival was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier curves. Predictors of clinical outcome were determined by Cox regression analysis. C3, C4, and CH50 levels were significantly lower in HBV-ACLF patients compared to controls. C3, C4, and CH50 levels were negatively correlated with Tbil levels but positively associated with PTA levels. C3 levels were negatively associated with MELD-Na. C3 levels were significantly lower in HBV-ACLF patients who died compared to patients who survived. In a median hospital stay of 39 days, mortality occurred in 41 patients with a progressive increase based on C3 grade (P = 0.008). The actuarial probability of developing mortality was significantly higher in patients with low C3 grade compared to those with high C3 grade (P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that C3 levels were an independent predictor of mortality. Complement played a pathogenic role in HBV-ACLF patients and C3 was an independent predictor of mortality. PMID:27144164

  9. The ability of self-rated health to predict mortality among community-dwelling elderly individuals differs according to the specific cause of death: data from the NEDICES Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Fernández-Ruiz, Mario; Guerra-Vales, Juan M.; Trincado, Rocío; Fernández, Rebeca; Medrano, María José; Villarejo, Alberto; Benito-León, Julián; Bermejo-Pareja, Félix

    2013-01-01

    Background The biomedical and psychosocial mechanisms underlying the relationship between self-rated health (SRH) and mortality in elderly individuals remain unclear. Objective To assess the association between different measurements of subjective health (global, age-comparative, and time-comparative SRH) and cause-specific mortality. Methods Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES) is a prospective population-based survey of the prevalence and incidence of major age-associated conditions. Data on demographic and health-related variables were collected from 5,278 subjects (≥65 years) at the baseline questionnaire. Thirteen-year mortality and cause of death were obtained from the National Death Registry. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for SRH and all-cause and cause-specific mortality were estimated by Cox proportional hazard models. Results At baseline, 4,958 participants (93.9%) answered the SRH questionnaire. At the end of follow-up 2,468 (49.8%) participants had died (of whom 723 [29.2%] died from cardiovascular diseases, 609 [24.7%] from cancer, and 359 [14.5%] from respiratory diseases). Global SRH predicted independently all-cause mortality (aHR for “poor or very poor” vs. “very good” category: 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.15–1.69). Analysis of cause-specific mortality revealed that global SRH was an independent predictor for death due to respiratory diseases (aHR for “poor or very poor” vs. “very good” category: 2.61; 95% CI: 1.55–4.39), whereas age-comparative SRH exhibited a gradient effect on the risk of death due to stroke. Time-comparative SRH provided small additional predictive value. Conclusions The predictive ability of SRH for mortality largely differs according to the specific cause of death, with the strongest associations found for respiratory disease and stroke mortality. PMID:23615509

  10. Role of clinical and pulmonary computed tomography angiographic parameters in the prediction of short- and long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Etesamifard, Nasrin; Shirani, Shapoor; Jenab, Yaser; Lotfi-Tokaldany, Masoumeh; Pourjafari, Marzieh; Jalali, Arash

    2016-04-01

    The utility of pulmonary computed tomography angiography (CTA) in the prediction of short- and long-term outcomes after pulmonary embolism (PE) is controversial. Between November 2011 and September 2014, 190 normotensive patients (age, 61 ± 16.90 years, 53.7 % female) were diagnosed with acute PE using a 128-slice dual-source pulmonary CTA scanner. All the related clinical and cardiovascular measurements were recorded. Primary endpoints were 30-day PE-related death, 30-day composite complications (death, hemodynamic instability, thrombolysis and thrombectomy, inotrope, and mechanical ventilation use), and long-term all-cause mortality during a median follow-up of 14.78 months. Overall 1-month mortality is 5.8 %, and death is PE-related in 4.7 % of total patients. Although non-significant, O2 saturation <90 % and the right ventricular short-axis to left ventricular short-axis diameters (RV/LV) ratio increase the risk of PE-related death by 3.5 and 2 times, respectively. The independent predictors of 30-day complications (15.8 %) are O2 saturation <90 % (OR: 3.924, 95 % CI 1.505-10.229), RV/LV ratio (OR: 3.018, 95 % CI 1.455-6.263), and heart rate ≥ 110 beats/min (OR: 2.607, 95 % CI 1.063-6.391). For long-term mortality (13.7 %), O2 saturation <90 % is an independent predictor (HR: 4.454, 95 % CI 2.016-8.862). The independent impact of the RV/LV ratio on the long-term mortality has a trend towards statistical significance (HR: 1.762, 95 % CI 0.968-4.218; p value = 0.064). The PE-related death is 4.7 % within 30 days after admisson and 13.7 % after a median follow-up of 14 months. Among the pulmonary CTA parameters, only the RV/LV ratio and among the clinical and paraclinical measures, O2 saturation <90 % remain independent predictors of short- and long-term mortality and complications after the diagnosis of PE. PMID:26712594

  11. Sympathetic activity–associated periodic repolarization dynamics predict mortality following myocardial infarction

    PubMed Central

    Rizas, Konstantinos D.; Nieminen, Tuomo; Barthel, Petra; Zürn, Christine S.; Kähönen, Mika; Viik, Jari; Lehtimäki, Terho; Nikus, Kjell; Eick, Christian; Greiner, Tim O.; Wendel, Hans P.; Seizer, Peter; Schreieck, Jürgen; Gawaz, Meinrad; Schmidt, Georg; Bauer, Axel

    2014-01-01

    Background. Enhanced sympathetic activity at the ventricular myocardium can destabilize repolarization, increasing the risk of death. Sympathetic activity is known to cluster in low-frequency bursts; therefore, we hypothesized that sympathetic activity induces periodic low-frequency changes of repolarization. We developed a technique to assess the sympathetic effect on repolarization and identified periodic components in the low-frequency spectral range (≤0.1 Hz), which we termed periodic repolarization dynamics (PRD). Methods. We investigated the physiological properties of PRD in multiple experimental studies, including a swine model of steady-state ventilation (n = 7) and human studies involving fixed atrial pacing (n = 10), passive head-up tilt testing (n = 11), low-intensity exercise testing (n = 11), and beta blockade (n = 10). We tested the prognostic power of PRD in 908 survivors of acute myocardial infarction (MI). Finally, we tested the predictive values of PRD and T-wave alternans (TWA) in 2,965 patients undergoing clinically indicated exercise testing. Results. PRD was not related to underlying respiratory activity (P < 0.001) or heart-rate variability (P = 0.002). Furthermore, PRD was enhanced by activation of the sympathetic nervous system, and pharmacological blockade of sympathetic nervous system activity suppressed PRD (P ≤ 0.005 for both). Increased PRD was the strongest single risk predictor of 5-year total mortality (hazard ratio 4.75, 95% CI 2.94–7.66; P < 0.001) after acute MI. In patients undergoing exercise testing, the predictive value of PRD was strong and complementary to that of TWA. Conclusion. We have described and identified low-frequency rhythmic modulations of repolarization that are associated with sympathetic activity. Increased PRD can be used as a predictor of mortality in survivors of acute MI and patients undergoing exercise testing. Trial registration. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00196274. Funding. This study was funded by

  12. Predicting Functional Independence Measure Scores During Rehabilitation with Wearable Inertial Sensors

    PubMed Central

    Sprint, Gina; Cook, Diane J.; Weeks, Douglas L.; Borisov, Vladimir

    2016-01-01

    Evaluating patient progress and making discharge decisions regarding inpatient medical rehabilitation rely upon standard clinical assessments administered by trained clinicians. Wearable inertial sensors can offer more objective measures of patient movement and progress. We undertook a study to investigate the contribution of wearable sensor data to predict discharge functional independence measure (FIM) scores for 20 patients at an inpatient rehabilitation facility. The FIM utilizes a 7-point ordinal scale to measure patient independence while performing several activities of daily living, such as walking, grooming, and bathing. Wearable inertial sensor data were collected from ecological ambulatory tasks at two time points mid-stay during inpatient rehabilitation. Machine learning algorithms were trained with sensor-derived features and clinical information obtained from medical records at admission to the inpatient facility. While models trained only with clinical features predicted discharge scores well, we were able to achieve an even higher level of prediction accuracy when also including the wearable sensor-derived features. Correlations as high as 0.97 for leave-one-out cross validation predicting discharge FIM motor scores are reported. PMID:27054054

  13. Does field independence predict visuo-spatial abilities underpinning human navigation? Behavioural evidence.

    PubMed

    Boccia, Maddalena; Piccardi, Laura; Di Marco, Mariangela; Pizzamiglio, Luigi; Guariglia, Cecilia

    2016-10-01

    Field independence (FI) has been defined as the extent to which the individual perceives part of a field as discrete from the surrounding field, rather than embedded in the field. It has been proposed to represent a relatively stable pattern in individuals' predisposition towards information processing. In the present study, we assessed the effect of FI on skills underpinning human navigation. Fifty Healthy individuals took part in this study. FI has been assessed by using the group embedded figures test (GEFT). Participants were also asked to perform several visuo-spatial orientation tasks, including the perspective taking/spatial orientation test (PTSOT), the mental rotation task (MRT) and the vividness task, as well as the Santa Barbara Sense of Direction Scale, a self-reported questionnaire, which has been found to predict environmental spatial orientation ability. We found that performances on the GEFT significantly predicted performances on the PTSOT and the MRT. This result supports the idea that FI predicts human navigation.

  14. Heart Rate-Corrected QT Interval Helps Predict Mortality after Intentional Organophosphate Poisoning

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Shou-Hsuan; Lin, Ja-Liang; Weng, Cheng-Hao; Yang, Huang-Yu; Hsu, Ching-Wei; Chen, Kuan-Hsing; Huang, Wen-Hung; Yen, Tzung-Hai

    2012-01-01

    with prolonged QTc intervals than among those with normal QTc intervals (Log-rank test, Chi-square test = 20.36, P<0.001). Conclusions QTc interval helps predict mortality after intentional organophosphate poisoning. PMID:22574184

  15. Models to predict mortality of Tribolium castaneum (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) exposed to elevated temperatures during structural heat treatments.

    PubMed

    Jian, Fuji; Subramanyam, Bhadriraju; Jayas, Digvir S; White, Noel D G

    2013-10-01

    Novel thermal death models were developed with certain assumptions, and these models were validated by using actual heat treatment data collected under laboratory conditions at constant temperatures over time and in commercial food-processing facilities where temperatures were dynamically changing over time. The predicted mortalities of both young larvae and adults of the red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum (Herbst), were within 92-99% of actual measured insect mortalities. There was good concordance between predicted and observed mortalities of young larvae and adults of T. castaneum exposed to constant temperatures in laboratory growth chambers and at variable temperatures during structural heat treatments of commercial food-processing facilities. The models developed in this study can be used to determine effectiveness of structural heat treatments in killing young larvae and adults of T. castaneum and for characterizing insect thermotolerance.

  16. Efficacy of the APACHE II score at ICU discharge in predicting post-ICU mortality and ICU readmission in critically ill surgical patients.

    PubMed

    Lee, H; Lim, C W; Hong, H P; Ju, J W; Jeon, Y T; Hwang, J W; Park, H P

    2015-03-01

    In this study, we evaluated the efficacy of the discharge Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score in predicting post-intensive care unit (ICU) mortality and ICU readmission during the same hospitalisation in a surgical ICU. Of 1190 patients who were admitted to the ICU and stayed >48 hours between October 2007 and March 2010, 23 (1.9%) died and 86 (7.2%) were readmitted after initial ICU discharge, with 26 (3.0%) admitted within 48 hours. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the discharge and admission APACHE II scores in predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.631 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.603 to 0.658) and 0.669 (95% CI 0.642 to 0.696), respectively (P=0.510). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of discharge and admission APACHE II scores for predicting all forms of readmission was 0.606 (95% CI 0.578 to 0.634) and 0.574 (95% CI 0.545 to 0.602), respectively (P=0.316). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of discharge APACHE II score in predicting early ICU readmissions was, however, higher than that of admission APACHE II score (0.688 [95% CI 0.660 to 0.714] versus 0.505 [95% CI 0.476 to 0.534], P=0.001). The discharge APACHE II score (odds ratio [OR] 1.1, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.22, P=0.024), unplanned ICU readmission (OR 20.0, 95% CI 7.6 to 53.1, P=0.001), eosinopenia at ICU discharge (OR 6.0, 95% CI 1.34 to 26.9, P=0.019), and hospital length-of-stay before ICU admission (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.03, P=0.021) were significant independent factors in predicting post-ICU mortality. This study suggests that the discharge APACHE II score may be useful in predicting post-ICU mortality and is superior to the admission APACHE II score in predicting early ICU readmission in surgical ICU patients.

  17. Compound Structure-Independent Activity Prediction in High-Dimensional Target Space.

    PubMed

    Balfer, Jenny; Hu, Ye; Bajorath, Jürgen

    2014-08-01

    Profiling of compound libraries against arrays of targets has become an important approach in pharmaceutical research. The prediction of multi-target compound activities also represents an attractive task for machine learning with potential for drug discovery applications. Herein, we have explored activity prediction in high-dimensional target space. Different types of models were derived to predict multi-target activities. The models included naïve Bayesian (NB) and support vector machine (SVM) classifiers based upon compound structure information and NB models derived on the basis of activity profiles, without considering compound structure. Because the latter approach can be applied to incomplete training data and principally depends on the feature independence assumption, SVM modeling was not applicable in this case. Furthermore, iterative hybrid NB models making use of both activity profiles and compound structure information were built. In high-dimensional target space, NB models utilizing activity profile data were found to yield more accurate activity predictions than structure-based NB and SVM models or hybrid models. An in-depth analysis of activity profile-based models revealed the presence of correlation effects across different targets and rationalized prediction accuracy. Taken together, the results indicate that activity profile information can be effectively used to predict the activity of test compounds against novel targets.

  18. Two-parameter Failure Model Improves Time-independent and Time-dependent Failure Predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Huddleston, R L

    2004-01-27

    A new analytical model for predicting failure under a generalized, triaxial stress state was developed by the author and initially reported in 1984. The model was validated for predicting failure under elevated-temperature creep-rupture conditions. Biaxial data for three alloy steels, Types 304 and 316 stainless steels and Inconel 600, demonstrated two to three orders of magnitude reduction in the scatter of predicted versus observed creep-rupture times as compared to the classical failure models of Mises, Tresca, and Rankine. In 1990, the new model was incorporated into American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Code Case N47-29 for design of components operating under creep-rupture conditions. The current report provides additional validation of the model for predicting failure under time-independent conditions and also outlines a methodology for predicting failure under cyclic, time-dependent, creep-fatigue conditions. The later extension of the methodology may have the potential to improve failure predictions there as well. These results are relevant to most design applications, but they have special relevance to high-performance design applications such as components for high-pressure equipment, nuclear reactors, and jet engines.

  19. Value of E-PASS models for predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality in resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma and gallbladder carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Haga, Yoshio; Miyamoto, Atsushi; Wada, Yasuo; Takami, Yuko; Takeuchi, Hitoshi

    2015-01-01

    Background It has previously been reported that a general risk model, Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS), and its modified version, mE-PASS, had a high predictive power for postoperative mortality and morbidity in a variety of gastrointestinal surgeries. This study evaluated their utilities in proximal biliary carcinoma resection. Methods E-PASS variables were collected in patients undergoing resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma and gallbladder carcinoma in Japanese referral hospitals. Results Analysis of 125 patients with gallbladder cancer and 97 patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (n = 222). Fifty-six patients (25%) underwent liver resection with either hemihepatectomy or extended hemihepatectomy. The E-PASS models showed a high discrimination power to predict in-hospital mortality; areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% confidence intervals) were 0.85 (0.76–0.94) for E-PASS and 0.82 (0.73–0.91) for mE-PASS. The predicted mortality rates correlated with the severity of postoperative complications (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient: ρ = 0.51, P < 0.001 for E-PASS; ρ = 0.47, P < 0.001 for mE-PASS). Conclusions The E-PASS models examined herein may accurately predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in proximal biliary carcinoma resection. These models will be useful for surgical decision-making, informed consent, and risk adjustments in surgical audits. PMID:27017167

  20. The Art versus Science of Predicting Prognosis: Can a Prognostic Index Predict Short-Term Mortality Better than Experienced Nurses Do?

    PubMed Central

    Farrington, Sue; Craig, Teresa; Slattery, Julie; Harrold, Joan; Oldanie, Betty; Roy, Jason; Biehl, Richard; Teno, Joan

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Objective To determine whether a prognostic index could predict one-week mortality more accurately than hospice nurses can. Method An electronic health record-based retrospective cohort study of 21,074 hospice patients was conducted in three hospice programs in the Southeast, Northeast, and Midwest United States. Model development used logistic regression with bootstrapped confidence intervals and multiple imputation to account for missing data. The main outcome measure was mortality within 7 days of hospice enrollment. Results A total of 21,074 patients were admitted to hospice between October 1, 2008 and May 31, 2011, and 5562 (26.4%) died within 7 days. An optimal predictive model included the Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) score, admission from a hospital, and gender. The model had a c-statistic of 0.86 in the training sample and 0.84 in the validation sample, which was greater than that of nurses' predictions (0.72). The index's performance was best for patients with pulmonary disease (0.89) and worst for patients with cancer and dementia (both 0.80). The index's predictions of mortality rates in each index category were within 5.0% of actual rates, whereas nurses underestimated mortality by up to 18.9%. Using the optimal index threshold (<3), the index's predictions had a better c-statistic (0.78 versus 0.72) and higher sensitivity (74.4% versus 47.8%) than did nurses' predictions but a lower specificity (80.6% versus 95.1%). Conclusions Although nurses can often identify patients who will die within 7 days, a simple model based on available clinical information offers improved accuracy and could help to identify those patients who are at high risk for short-term mortality. PMID:22583382

  1. Careers and mortality in France: evidence on how far occupational mobility predicts differentiated risks.

    PubMed

    Cambois, Emmanuelle

    2004-06-01

    This new study goes beyond the well-established correlation between mortality differentials and occupational status, to focus on the impact of professional careers on mortality risk. It shows heterogeneity in the mortality risks within occupational classes, strongly related to the type of occupational moves experienced. The occupational data are taken from the French longitudinal census sample-using 1968 and 1975 census records-and mortality risks are estimated over the 1975-1980 period, for both occupational classes and pathways between classes. Results show a close relationship between occupational mobility and mortality. For men, favorable occupational moves-e.g. from clerks to upper class-put them less at risk of mortality than their counterparts who remained in their class. An inverse relationship is found for unfavorable moves. In most cases, the mortality risks of the movers are in between the risks in the class left and in the class joined. Similar patterns apply to specific groups of women only (upper classes, manual workers, clerks) for which occupational moves are probably driven, as for most men, by mortality related determinants (level of education, qualifications, health, etc.). The findings strongly support the use of a dynamic approach, based on individuals' experiences, to improve our understanding of mortality differentials.

  2. Serum calcification propensity predicts all-cause mortality in predialysis CKD.

    PubMed

    Smith, Edward R; Ford, Martin L; Tomlinson, Laurie A; Bodenham, Emma; McMahon, Lawrence P; Farese, Stefan; Rajkumar, Chakravarthi; Holt, Stephen G; Pasch, Andreas

    2014-02-01

    Medial arterial calcification is accelerated in patients with CKD and strongly associated with increased arterial rigidity and cardiovascular mortality. Recently, a novel in vitro blood test that provides an overall measure of calcification propensity by monitoring the maturation time (T50) of calciprotein particles in serum was described. We used this test to measure serum T50 in a prospective cohort of 184 patients with stages 3 and 4 CKD, with a median of 5.3 years of follow-up. At baseline, the major determinants of serum calcification propensity included higher serum phosphate, ionized calcium, increased bone osteoclastic activity, and lower free fetuin-A, plasma pyrophosphate, and albumin concentrations, which accounted for 49% of the variation in this parameter. Increased serum calcification propensity at baseline independently associated with aortic pulse wave velocity in the complete cohort and progressive aortic stiffening over 30 months in a subgroup of 93 patients. After adjustment for demographic, renal, cardiovascular, and biochemical covariates, including serum phosphate, risk of death among patients in the lowest T50 tertile was more than two times the risk among patients in the highest T50 tertile (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 5.4; P=0.04). This effect was lost, however, after additional adjustment for aortic stiffness, suggesting a shared causal pathway. Longitudinally, serum calcification propensity measurements remained temporally stable (intraclass correlation=0.81). These results suggest that serum T50 may be helpful as a biomarker in designing methods to improve defenses against vascular calcification.

  3. Predicting the capture rate in the Sun from a direct detection signal independently of the astrophysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrero-Garcia, Juan

    2016-05-01

    The goal of the works on which this talk is based is to relate a direct detection signal with neutrino limits from the Sun independently of the astrophysics. In order to achieve this we derive a halo-independent lower bound on the dark matter capture rate in the Sun from a direct detection signal, with which one can set upper limits on the branching ratios into different channels from the absence of a high-energy neutrino flux in neutrino observatories. We also extend this bound to the case of inelastic scattering, both endothermic and exothermic. From two inelastic signals we show how the dark matter mass, the mass difference of the states and the couplings to neutrons and protons can be obtained. Furthermore, one can also pin down the exothermic/endothermic nature of the scattering, and therefore a precise lower bound on the solar capture rate is predicted. We also discuss isospin violation and uncertainties due to form factors.

  4. Predictive score for mortality in patients with COPD exacerbations attending hospital emergency departments

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Limited information is available about predictors of short-term outcomes in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (eCOPD) attending an emergency department (ED). Such information could help stratify these patients and guide medical decision-making. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical prediction rule for short-term mortality during hospital admission or within a week after the index ED visit. Methods This was a prospective cohort study of patients with eCOPD attending the EDs of 16 participating hospitals. Recruitment started in June 2008 and ended in September 2010. Information on possible predictor variables was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up. Main short-term outcomes were death during hospital admission or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED, as well as at death within 1 month of the index ED visit. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed in a derivation sample and validated in a validation sample. The score was compared with other published prediction rules for patients with stable COPD. Results In total, 2,487 patients were included in the study. Predictors of death during hospital admission, or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED were patient age, baseline dyspnea, previous need for long-term home oxygen therapy or non-invasive mechanical ventilation, altered mental status, and use of inspiratory accessory muscles or paradoxical breathing upon ED arrival (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85). Addition of arterial blood gas parameters (oxygen and carbon dioxide partial pressures (PO2 and PCO2)) and pH) did not improve the model. The same variables were predictors of death at 1 month (AUC = 0.85). Compared with other commonly used tools for predicting the severity of COPD in stable patients, our rule was significantly better

  5. Urine Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein-1 Is an Independent Predictive Factor of Hospital Readmission and Survival in Cirrhosis

    PubMed Central

    Graupera, Isabel; Solà, Elsa; Fabrellas, Núria; Moreira, Rebeca; Solé, Cristina; Huelin, Patricia; de la Prada, Gloria; Pose, Elisa; Ariza, Xavier; Risso, Alessandro; Albertos, Sonia; Morales-Ruiz, Manuel; Jiménez, Wladimiro; Ginès, Pere

    2016-01-01

    MCP-1 (monocyte chemoattractant protein-1) is a proinflammatory cytokine involved in chemotaxis of monocytes. In several diseases, such as acute coronary syndromes and heart failure, elevated MCP-1 levels have been associated with poor outcomes. Little is known about MCP-1 in cirrhosis. AIM: To investigate the relationship between MCP-1 and outcome in decompensated cirrhosis. METHODS: Prospective study of 218 patients discharged from hospital after an admission for complications of cirrhosis. Urine and plasma levels of MCP-1 and other urine proinflammatroy biomarkers: osteopontin(OPN), trefoil-factor3 and liver-fatty-acid-binding protein were measured at admission. Urine non-inflammatory mediators cystatin-C, β2microglobulin and albumin were measured as control biomarkers. The relationship between these biomarkers and the 3-month hospital readmission, complications of cirrhosis, and mortality were assessed. RESULTS: 69 patients(32%) had at least one readmission during the 3-month period of follow-up and 30 patients died(14%). Urine MCP-1 and OPN levels, were associated with 3-month probability of readmission (0.85 (0.27–2.1) and 2003 (705–4586) ug/g creat vs 0.47 (0.2–1.1) and 1188 (512–2958) ug/g creat, in patients with and without readmission, respectively; p<0.05; median (IQR)). Furthermore, urine levels of MCP-1 were significantly associated with mortality (1.01 (1–3.6) vs 0.5 (0.2–1.1) μg/g creat, in dead and alive patients at 3 months; p<0.05). Patients with higher levels of urine MCP-1 (above percentile 75th) had higher probability of development of hepatic encephalopathy, bacterial infections or AKI. Urine MCP-1 was an independent predictive factor of hospital readmission and combined end-point of readmission or dead at 3 months. Plasma levels of MCP-1 did not correlated with outcomes. CONCLUSION: Urine, but not plasma, MCP-1 levels are associated with hospital readmission, development of complications of cirrhosis, and mortality. These

  6. Factors Predicting Mortality in Midlife Adults with and without Down Syndrome Living with Family

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Esbensen, A. J.; Seltzer, M. M.; Greenberg, J. S.

    2007-01-01

    Background: Little is known about the mortality of individuals with Down syndrome who have lived at home with their families throughout their lives. The current study evaluates the predictors, causes and patterns of mortality among co-residing individuals in midlife with Down syndrome as compared with co-residing individuals with ID owing to other…

  7. Blood color is influenced by inflammation and independently predicts survival in hemodialysis patients: quantitative evaluation of blood color.

    PubMed

    Shibata, Masanori; Nagai, Kojiro; Doi, Toshio; Tawada, Hideo; Taniguchi, Shinkichi

    2012-11-01

    Blood color of dialysis patients can be seen routinely. Darkened blood color is often observed in critically ill patients generally because of decreased oxygen saturation, but little is known about the other factors responsible for the color intensity. In addition, quantitative blood color examination has not been performed yet. Therefore, no one has evaluated the predictive power of blood color. The aim of this study was to evaluate if blood color darkness reflects some medical problems and is associated with survival disadvantage. Study design is a prospective cohort study. One hundred sixty-seven patients were enrolled in this study. Quantification of blood color was done using a reflected light colorimeter. Demographic and clinical data were collected to find out the factors that can be related to blood color. Follow-ups were performed for 2 years to analyze the risk factors for their survival. Regression analysis showed that C-reactive protein and white blood cell count were negatively correlated with blood color. In addition, blood color was positively correlated with mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration and serum sodium concentration as well as blood oxygen saturation. During a follow-up, 34 (20.4%) patients died. Cox regression analysis revealed that darkened blood color was an independent significant risk factor of mortality in hemodialysis patients as well as low albumin and low Kt/V. These results suggest that inflammation independently affects blood color and quantification of blood color is useful to estimate prognosis in patients undergoing hemodialysis. It is possible that early detection of blood color worsening can improve patients' survival.

  8. Serum Gamma-Glutamyl-Transferase Independently Predicts Outcome After Transarterial Chemoembolization of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: External Validation

    SciTech Connect

    Guiu, Boris Deschamps, Frederic; Boulin, Mathieu; Boige, Valerie; Malka, David; Ducreux, Michel; Hillon, Patrick; Baere, Thierry de

    2012-10-15

    Purpose: An Asian study showed that gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) can predict survival after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study was designed to validate in a European population this biomarker as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC and to determine a threshold value for clinical use. Methods: In 88 consecutive patients treated by TACE for HCC, the optimal threshold for GGT serum level was determined by a ROC analysis. Endpoints were time-to-treatment failure (TTTF) and overall survival (OS). All multivariate models were internally validated using bootstrapping (90 replications). Results: Median follow-up lasted 373 days, and median overall survival was 748 days. The optimal threshold for GGT was 165 U/L (sensitivity: 89.3%; specificity: 56.7%; area under the ROC curve: 0.7515). Median TTTF was shorter when GGT was {>=}165 U/L (281 days vs. 850 days; P < 0.001). GGT {>=}165 U/L (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.06; P = 0.02), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 5.4; P = 0.002), and tumor size (HR = 1.12; P = 0.014) were independently associated with shorter TTTF. Median OS was shorter when GGT was {>=}165 U/L (508 days vs. not reached; P < 0.001). GGT {>=} 165 U/L (HR = 3.05; P = 0.029), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 12.95; P < 0.001), alfa-fetoprotein (HR = 2.9; P = 0.01), and tumor size (HR = 1.096; P = 0.013) were independently associated with shorter OS. The results were confirmed by bootstrapping. Conclusions: Our results provide in a European population the external validation of GGT as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC. A serum level of GGT {>=} 165 U/L is independently associated with both shorter TTTF and OS.

  9. Empathy and nonattachment independently predict peer nominations of prosocial behavior of adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Sahdra, Baljinder K.; Ciarrochi, Joseph; Parker, Philip D.; Marshall, Sarah; Heaven, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    There is a plethora of research showing that empathy promotes prosocial behavior among young people. We examined a relatively new construct in the mindfulness literature, nonattachment, defined as a flexible way of relating to one's experiences without clinging to or suppressing them. We tested whether nonattachment could predict prosociality above and beyond empathy. Nonattachment implies high cognitive flexibility and sufficient mental resources to step out of excessive self-cherishing to be there for others in need. Multilevel Poisson models using a sample of 15-year olds (N = 1831) showed that empathy and nonattachment independently predicted prosocial behaviors of helpfulness and kindness, as judged by same-sex and opposite-sex peers, except for when boys nominated girls. The effects of nonattachment remained substantial in more conservative models including self-esteem and peer nominations of liking. PMID:25852590

  10. Predicting the onset and severity of coral bleaching and mortality using satellite-observed light and temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eakin, C. M.; Skirving, W. J.; Iglesias-Prieto, R.; Dove, S.; Hedley, J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Enriquez, S. D.; Christensen, T. R.; Heron, S. F.; Mumby, P. J.; Strong, A. E.; Gledhill, D. K.; Liu, G.; Morgan, J. A.; Parker, B. A.

    2009-05-01

    The NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) suite of satellite products is designed to help coral reef managers monitor thermal stress to better understand and predict mass coral bleaching. The current products are based purely on ocean temperature, and yet both temperature and light contribute to mass coral bleaching. A new satellite- derived solar radiation product has been developed and, when combined with the thermal stress indices, is expected to improve predictions of the severity of mass coral bleaching events and resultant mortality. Here, we describe the development of a new coral physiology-based method to predict coral bleaching based on the total Light Stress Damage experienced by the coral holobiont.

  11. Independent Evaluation of the Rapid Scale-Up Program to Reduce Under-Five Mortality in Burkina Faso

    PubMed Central

    Munos, Melinda; Guiella, Georges; Roberton, Timothy; Maïga, Abdoulaye; Tiendrebeogo, Adama; Tam, Yvonne; Bryce, Jennifer; Baya, Banza

    2016-01-01

    We conducted a prospective evaluation of the “Rapid Scale-Up” (RSU) program in Burkina Faso, focusing on the integrated community case management (iCCM) component of the program. We used a quasi-experimental design in which nine RSU districts were compared with seven districts without the program. The evaluation included documentation of program implementation, assessments of implementation and quality of care, baseline and endline coverage surveys, and estimation of mortality changes using the Lives Saved Tool. Although the program trained large numbers of community health workers, there were implementation shortcomings related to training, supervision, and drug stockouts. The quality of care provided to sick children was poor, and utilization of community health workers was low. Changes in intervention coverage were comparable in RSU and comparison areas. Estimated under-five mortality declined by 6.2% (from 110 to 103 deaths per 1,000 live births) in the RSU area and 4.2% (from 114 to 109 per 1,000 live births) in the comparison area. The RSU did not result in coverage increases or mortality reductions in Burkina Faso, but we cannot draw conclusions about the effectiveness of the iCCM strategy, given implementation shortcomings. The evaluation results highlight the need for greater attention to implementation of iCCM programs. PMID:26787147

  12. Disparities in rates of inpatient mortality and adverse events: race/ethnicity and language as independent contributors.

    PubMed

    Hines, Anika L; Andrews, Roxanne M; Moy, Ernest; Barrett, Marguerite; Coffey, Rosanna M

    2014-12-01

    Patients with limited English proficiency have known limitations accessing health care, but differences in hospital outcomes once access is obtained are unknown.We investigate inpatient mortality rates and obstetric trauma for self-reported speakers of English, Spanish, and languages of Asia and the Pacific Islands (API) and compare quality of care by language with patterns by race/ethnicity. Data were from the United States Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project,2009 State Inpatient Databases for California. There were 3,757,218 records. Speaking a non-English principal language and having a non-White race/ethnicity did not place patients at higher risk for inpatient mortality; the exception was significantly higher stroke mortality for Japanese-speaking patients. Patients who spoke API languages or had API race/ethnicity had higher risk for obstetric trauma than English-speaking White patients.Spanish-speaking Hispanic patients had more obstetric trauma than English-speaking Hispanic patients. The influence of language on obstetric trauma and the potential effects of interpretation services on inpatient care are discussed. The broader context of policy implications for collection and reporting of language data is also presented. Results from other countries with and without English as a primary language are needed for the broadest interpretation and generalization of outcomes.

  13. Disparities in Rates of Inpatient Mortality and Adverse Events: Race/Ethnicity and Language as Independent Contributors

    PubMed Central

    Hines, Anika L.; Andrews, Roxanne M.; Moy, Ernest; Barrett, Marguerite L.; Coffey, Rosanna M.

    2014-01-01

    Patients with limited English proficiency have known limitations accessing health care, but differences in hospital outcomes once access is obtained are unknown. We investigate inpatient mortality rates and obstetric trauma for self-reported speakers of English, Spanish, and languages of Asia and the Pacific Islands (API) and compare quality of care by language with patterns by race/ethnicity. Data were from the United States Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, 2009 State Inpatient Databases for California. There were 3,757,218 records. Speaking a non-English principal language and having a non-White race/ethnicity did not place patients at higher risk for inpatient mortality; the exception was significantly higher stroke mortality for Japanese-speaking patients. Patients who spoke API languages or had API race/ethnicity had higher risk for obstetric trauma than English-speaking White patients. Spanish-speaking Hispanic patients had more obstetric trauma than English-speaking Hispanic patients. The influence of language on obstetric trauma and the potential effects of interpretation services on inpatient care are discussed. The broader context of policy implications for collection and reporting of language data is also presented. Results from other countries with and without English as a primary language are needed for the broadest interpretation and generalization of outcomes. PMID:25514153

  14. Disparities in rates of inpatient mortality and adverse events: race/ethnicity and language as independent contributors.

    PubMed

    Hines, Anika L; Andrews, Roxanne M; Moy, Ernest; Barrett, Marguerite L; Coffey, Rosanna M

    2014-01-01

    Patients with limited English proficiency have known limitations accessing health care, but differences in hospital outcomes once access is obtained are unknown. We investigate inpatient mortality rates and obstetric trauma for self-reported speakers of English, Spanish, and languages of Asia and the Pacific Islands (API) and compare quality of care by language with patterns by race/ethnicity. Data were from the United States Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, 2009 State Inpatient Databases for California. There were 3,757,218 records. Speaking a non-English principal language and having a non-White race/ethnicity did not place patients at higher risk for inpatient mortality; the exception was significantly higher stroke mortality for Japanese-speaking patients. Patients who spoke API languages or had API race/ethnicity had higher risk for obstetric trauma than English-speaking White patients. Spanish-speaking Hispanic patients had more obstetric trauma than English-speaking Hispanic patients. The influence of language on obstetric trauma and the potential effects of interpretation services on inpatient care are discussed. The broader context of policy implications for collection and reporting of language data is also presented. Results from other countries with and without English as a primary language are needed for the broadest interpretation and generalization of outcomes.

  15. Bone microarchitecture assessed by TBS predicts osteoporotic fractures independent of bone density: the Manitoba study.

    PubMed

    Hans, Didier; Goertzen, Andrew L; Krieg, Marc-Antoine; Leslie, William D

    2011-11-01

    The measurement of BMD by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the "gold standard" for diagnosing osteoporosis but does not directly reflect deterioration in bone microarchitecture. The trabecular bone score (TBS), a novel gray-level texture measurement that can be extracted from DXA images, correlates with 3D parameters of bone microarchitecture. Our aim was to evaluate the ability of lumbar spine TBS to predict future clinical osteoporotic fractures. A total of 29,407 women 50 years of age or older at the time of baseline hip and spine DXA were identified from a database containing all clinical results for the Province of Manitoba, Canada. Health service records were assessed for the incidence of nontraumatic osteoporotic fracture codes subsequent to BMD testing (mean follow-up 4.7 years). Lumbar spine TBS was derived for each spine DXA examination blinded to clinical parameters and outcomes. Osteoporotic fractures were identified in 1668 (5.7%) women, including 439 (1.5%) spine and 293 (1.0%) hip fractures. Significantly lower spine TBS and BMD were identified in women with major osteoporotic, spine, and hip fractures (all p < 0.0001). Spine TBS and BMD predicted fractures equally well, and the combination was superior to either measurement alone (p < 0.001). Spine TBS predicts osteoporotic fractures and provides information that is independent of spine and hip BMD. Combining the TBS trabecular texture index with BMD incrementally improves fracture prediction in postmenopausal women.

  16. Application of independent component analysis in target trajectory prediction based on moving platform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Chao; Mao, Yao; Gan, Xun; Tian, Jing

    2015-10-01

    In Electro-Optical tracking systems, compound control is used to keep high-precision tracking of fast targets by predicting the trajectory of the target. Traditional ground based Electro-Optical tracking system uses encoder data and target missing quantity read from image sensors to achieve the target trajectory by using prediction filtering techniques. Compared with the traditional ground based systems, relative angle between the tracking system and the ground cannot be read directly from encoder data in an Electro -Optical tracking system based on moving platform. Thus the combination of inertial sensors' data and target missing quantity is required to composite the trajectory of targets. However, the output of the inertial sensors contains not only the information of the target's motion, but also the residual error of vibration suppression. The existence of vibration suppression residual error affects the trajectory prediction accuracy, thereby reducing compensation precision and the stability of the compound control system. Independent component analysis (ICA) method that can effectively separate the source signals from the measurement signals is introduced to target trajectory prediction field in this paper. An experimental system based on the method is built by settling a small dual-axis disturbance platform, which is taken as the stable platform, on a large dual-axis disturbance platform, which is used to simulate the motion of the moving platform. The result shows that the vibration residual is separated and subtracted from the combined motion data. The target motion is therefore obtained and the feasibility of the method is proved .

  17. Gut Microbiota Alterations can predict Hospitalizations in Cirrhosis Independent of Diabetes Mellitus

    PubMed Central

    Bajaj, Jasmohan S.; Betrapally, Naga S.; Hylemon, Phillip B.; Thacker, Leroy R.; Daita, Kalyani; Kang, Dae Joong; White, Melanie B.; Unser, Ariel B.; Fagan, Andrew; Gavis, Edith A.; Sikaroodi, Masoumeh; Dalmet, Swati; Heuman, Douglas M.; Gillevet, Patrick M.

    2015-01-01

    Diabetes (DM) is prevalent in cirrhosis and may modulate the risk of hospitalization through gut dysbiosis. We aimed to define the role of gut microbiota on 90-day hospitalizations and of concomitant DM on microbiota. Cirrhotic outpatients with/without DM underwent stool and sigmoid mucosal microbial analysis and were followed for 90 days. Microbial composition was compared between those with/without DM, and those who were hospitalized/not. Regression/ROC analyses for hospitalizations were performed using clinical and microbial features. 278 cirrhotics [39% hepatic encephalopathy (HE), 31%DM] underwent stool while 72 underwent mucosal analyses. Ultimately, 94 were hospitalized and they had higher MELD, proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use and HE without difference in DM. Stool/mucosal microbiota were significantly altered in those who were hospitalized (UNIFRAC p< = 1.0e-02). Specifically, lower stool Bacteroidaceae, Clostridiales XIV, Lachnospiraceae, Ruminococcacae and higher Enterococcaceae and Enterobacteriaceae were seen in hospitalized patients. Concomitant DM impacted microbiota UNIFRAC (stool, p = 0.003, mucosa,p = 0.04) with higher stool Bacteroidaceae and lower Ruminococcaeae. Stool Bacteroidaceaeae and Clostridiales XIV predicted 90-day hospitalizations independent of clinical predictors (MELD, HE, PPI). Stool and colonic mucosal microbiome are altered in cirrhotics who get hospitalized with independent prediction using stool Bacteroidaceae and Clostridiales XIV. Concomitant DM distinctly impacts gut microbiota without affecting hospitalizations. PMID:26692421

  18. Worsening of Renal Function During 1 Year After Hospital Discharge Is a Strong and Independent Predictor of All‐Cause Mortality in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Ueda, Tomoya; Kawakami, Rika; Sugawara, Yu; Okada, Sadanori; Nishida, Taku; Onoue, Kenji; Soeda, Tsunenari; Okayama, Satoshi; Takeda, Yukiji; Watanabe, Makoto; Kawata, Hiroyuki; Uemura, Shiro; Saito, Yoshihiko

    2014-01-01

    Background Renal impairment is a common comorbidity and the strongest risk factor for poor prognosis in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). In clinical practice, renal function is labile during episodes of ADHF, and often worsens after discharge. The significance of worsening of renal function (WRF) after discharge has not been investigated as extensively as baseline renal function at admission or WRF during hospitalization. Methods and Results Among 611 consecutive patients with ADHF emergently admitted to our hospital, 233 patients with 3 measurements of serum creatinine (SCr) level measurements (on admission, at discharge, and 1 year after discharge) were included in the present study. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to the presence or absence of WRF at 1 year after discharge (1y‐WRF), defined as an absolute increase in SCr >0.3 mg/dL (>26.5 μmol/L) plus a ≥25% increase in SCr at 1 year after discharge compared to the SCr value at discharge. All‐cause and cardiovascular mortality were assessed as adverse outcomes. During a mean follow‐up of 35.4 months, 1y‐WRF occurred in 48 of 233 patients. There were 66 deaths from all causes. All‐cause and cardiovascular mortality were significantly higher in patients with 1y‐WRF (log‐rank P<0.0001 and P<0.0001, respectively) according to Kaplan–Meier analysis. In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, 1y‐WRF was a strong and independent predictor of all‐cause and cardiovascular mortality. Hemoglobin and B‐type natriuretic peptide at discharge, as well as left ventricular ejection fraction <50%, were independent predictors of 1y‐WRF. Conclusions In patients with ADHF, 1y‐WRF is a strong predictor of all‐cause and cardiovascular mortality. PMID:25370599

  19. Is the adiposity-associated FTO gene variant related to all-cause mortality independent of adiposity? Meta-analysis of data from 169,551 Caucasian adults

    PubMed Central

    Mirza, S. S.; Zhao, J. H.; Chasman, D. I.; Fischer, K.; Qi, Q.; Smith, A. V.; Thinggaard, M.; Jarczok, M. N.; Nalls, M. A.; Trompet, S.; Timpson, N. J.; Schmidt, B.; Jackson, A. U.; Lyytikäinen, L. P.; Verweij, N.; Mueller-Nurasyid, M.; Vikström, M.; Marques-Vidal, P.; Wong, A.; Meidtner, K.; Middelberg, R. P.; Strawbridge, R. J.; Christiansen, L.; Kyvik, K. O.; Hamsten, A.; Jääskeläinen, T.; Tjønneland, A.; Eriksson, J. G.; Whitfield, J. B.; Boeing, H.; Hardy, R.; Vollenweider, P.; Leander, K.; Peters, A.; van der Harst, P.; Kumari, M.; Lehtimäki, T.; Meirhaeghe, A.; Tuomilehto, J.; Jöckel, K.-H.; Ben-Shlomo, Y.; Sattar, N.; Baumeister, S. E.; Smith, G. Davey; Casas, J. P.; Houston, D. K.; März, W.; Christensen, K.; Gudnason, V.; Hu, F. B.; Metspalu, A.; Ridker, P. M.; Wareham, N. J.; Loos, R. J. F.; Tiemeier, H.; Sonestedt, E.; Sørensen, T. I. A.

    2015-01-01

    Summary Previously, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs9939609, in the FTO gene showed a much stronger association with all-cause mortality than expected from its association with body mass index (BMI), body fat mass index (FMI) and waist circumference (WC). This finding implies that the SNP has strong pleiotropic effects on adiposity and adiposity-independent pathological pathways that leads to increased mortality. To investigate this further, we conducted a meta-analysis of similar data from 34 longitudinal studies including 169,551 adult Caucasians among whom 27,100 died during follow-up. Linear regression showed that the minor allele of the FTO SNP was associated with greater BMI (n = 169,551; 0.32 kg m−2; 95% CI 0.28–0.32, P < 1 × 10−32), WC (n = 152,631; 0.76 cm; 0.68–0.84, P < 1 × 10−32) and FMI (n = 48,192; 0.17 kg m−2; 0.13–0.22, P = 1.0 × 10−13). Cox proportional hazard regression analyses for mortality showed that the hazards ratio (HR) for the minor allele of the FTO SNPs was 1.02 (1.00–1.04, P = 0.097), but the apparent excess risk was eliminated after adjustment for BMI and WC (HR: 1.00; 0.98–1.03, P = 0.662) and for FMI (HR: 1.00; 0.96–1.04, P = 0.932). In conclusion, this study does not support that the FTO SNP is associated with all-cause mortality independently of the adiposity phenotypes. PMID:25752329

  20. Worldwide trends in gastric cancer mortality (1980-2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype.

    PubMed

    Ferro, Ana; Peleteiro, Bárbara; Malvezzi, Matteo; Bosetti, Cristina; Bertuccio, Paola; Levi, Fabio; Negri, Eva; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Gastric cancer incidence and mortality decreased substantially over the last decades in most countries worldwide, with differences in the trends and distribution of the main topographies across regions. To monitor recent mortality trends (1980-2011) and to compute short-term predictions (2015) of gastric cancer mortality in selected countries worldwide, we analysed mortality data provided by the World Health Organization. We also analysed incidence of cardia and non-cardia cancers using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (2003-2007). The joinpoint regression over the most recent calendar periods gave estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) around -3% for the European Union (EU) and major European countries, as well as in Japan and Korea, and around -2% in North America and major Latin American countries. In the United States of America (USA), EU and other major countries worldwide, the EAPC, however, were lower than in previous years. The predictions for 2015 show that a levelling off of rates is expected in the USA and a few other countries. The relative contribution of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancers to the overall number of cases varies widely, with a generally higher proportion of cardia cancers in countries with lower gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates (e.g. the USA, Canada and Denmark). Despite the favourable mortality trends worldwide, in some countries the declines are becoming less marked. There still is the need to control Helicobacter pylori infection and other risk factors, as well as to improve diagnosis and management, to further reduce the burden of gastric cancer.

  1. Blood Lactate Levels Cutoff and Mortality Prediction in Sepsis—Time for a Reappraisal? a Retrospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Filho, Roberto Rabello; Rocha, Leonardo Lima; Corrêa, Thiago Domingos; Pessoa, Camila Menezes Souza; Colombo, Giancarlo; Assuncao, Murillo Santucci Cesar

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The objective of this study was to identify the initial value of blood lactate that best correlates with 28-day mortality in resuscitated septic shock patients. This was a retrospective cohort study including 443 patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with severe sepsis or septic shock from the emergency department. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to obtain the best cutoff value for initial blood lactate associated with 28-day mortality. Patients were then dichotomized according to the chosen lactate cutoff, and sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated. Baseline blood lactate level more than 2.5 mmol/L showed the largest area under the ROC curve to predict 28-day mortality (ROC area, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62–0.79), with sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value of 67.4%, 61.7%, and 94.2%, respectively. Mortality at 28 days was 16.9% (31/183) in patients with initial lactate more than 2.5 mmol/L and 5.8% (15/260) in patients with initial lactate at most 2.5 mmol/L (relative risk, 2.93; 95% CI, 1.63–5.28; P < 0.001). Initial blood lactate levels more than 2.5 mmol/L (hazard ratio [HR], 2.86; 95% CI, 1.53–5.33; P = 0.001) and Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment score at ICU admission (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.09–1.27; P < 0.001) were associated with increased 28-day mortality in the adjusted Cox regression. In this retrospective cohort study, a lactate level more than 2.5 mmol/L was the best threshold to predict 28-day mortality among severe sepsis and septic shock patients. Further prospective studies should address the impact on morbidity and mortality of this threshold as a trigger to resuscitation in this population of critically ill patients. PMID:27380535

  2. Serum Phosphate Predicts Early Mortality among Underweight Adults Starting ART in Zambia: A Novel Context for Refeeding Syndrome?

    PubMed

    Koethe, John R; Blevins, Meridith; Nyirenda, Christopher K; Kabagambe, Edmond K; Chiasera, Janelle M; Shepherd, Bryan E; Zulu, Isaac; Heimburger, Douglas C

    2013-01-01

    Background. Low body mass index (BMI) at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is associated with early mortality, but the etiology is not well understood. We hypothesized that low pretreatment serum phosphate, a critical cellular metabolism intermediate primarily stored in skeletal muscle, may predict mortality within the first 12 weeks of ART. Methods. We prospectively studied 352 HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Lusaka, Zambia to estimate the odds of death for each 0.1 mmol/L decrease in baseline phosphate after adjusting for established predictors of mortality. Results. The distribution of phosphate values was similar across BMI categories (median value 1.2 mmol/L). Among the 145 participants with BMI <18.5 kg/m(2), 28 (19%) died within 12 weeks. Lower pretreatment serum phosphate was associated with increased mortality (odds ratio (OR) 1.24 per 0.1 mmol/L decrement, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.47; P = 0.01) after adjusting for sex, age, and CD4(+) lymphocyte count. A similar relationship was not observed among participants with BMI ≥18.5 kg/m(2) (OR 0.96, 95% CI: 0.76 to 1.21; P = 0.74). Conclusions. The association of low pretreatment serum phosphate level and early ART mortality among undernourished individuals may represent a variant of the refeeding syndrome. Further studies of cellular metabolism in this population are needed.

  3. SNAPPE-II (Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology with Perinatal Extension-II) in Predicting Mortality and Morbidity in NICU

    PubMed Central

    Archana, Banur Raju

    2015-01-01

    Introduction A number of illness severity scores have evolved which would predict mortality and morbidity in intensive care units. One such scoring system developed by Richardson was SNAPPE-II (Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology with Perinatal extension-II). Aim The present study was conducted to assess the validity of SNAPPE-II score as a predictor of mortality and morbidity. Materials and Methods A total of 248 neonates who met the inclusion criteria were included in the study and SNAPPE-II score was calculated. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed to derive the best cut-off score and SPSS package (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) was used for statistical analysis. Results SNAPPE-II score was higher among expired neonates compared to survived ones. A mean score of 37 was associated with higher mortality. However, it didn’t accurately predict the length of stay. Conclusion SNAPPE II score is a better predictor of mortality irrespective of gestational ages and it is not a good predictor of morbidity. PMID:26557585

  4. Mortality prediction in patients with severe septic shock: a pilot study using a target metabolomics approach.

    PubMed

    Ferrario, Manuela; Cambiaghi, Alice; Brunelli, Laura; Giordano, Silvia; Caironi, Pietro; Guatteri, Luca; Raimondi, Ferdinando; Gattinoni, Luciano; Latini, Roberto; Masson, Serge; Ristagno, Giuseppe; Pastorelli, Roberta

    2016-01-01

    Septic shock remains a major problem in Intensive Care Unit, with high lethality and high-risk second lines treatments. In this preliminary retrospective investigation we examined plasma metabolome and clinical features in a subset of 20 patients with severe septic shock (SOFA score >8), enrolled in the multicenter Albumin Italian Outcome Sepsis study (ALBIOS, NCT00707122). Our purpose was to evaluate the changes of circulating metabolites in relation to mortality as a pilot study to be extended in a larger cohort. Patients were analyzed according to their 28-days and 90-days mortality. Metabolites were measured using a targeted mass spectrometry-based quantitative metabolomic approach that included acylcarnitines, aminoacids, biogenic amines, glycerophospholipids, sphingolipids, and sugars. Data-mining techniques were applied to evaluate the association of metabolites with mortality. Low unsaturated long-chain phosphatidylcholines and lysophosphatidylcholines species were associated with long-term survival (90-days) together with circulating kynurenine. Moreover, a decrease of these glycerophospholipids was associated to the event at 28-days and 90-days in combination with clinical variables such as cardiovascular SOFA score (28-day mortality model) or renal replacement therapy (90-day mortality model). Early changes in the plasma levels of both lipid species and kynurenine associated with mortality have potential implications for early intervention and discovering new target therapy. PMID:26847922

  5. Mortality prediction in patients with severe septic shock: a pilot study using a target metabolomics approach

    PubMed Central

    Ferrario, Manuela; Cambiaghi, Alice; Brunelli, Laura; Giordano, Silvia; Caironi, Pietro; Guatteri, Luca; Raimondi, Ferdinando; Gattinoni, Luciano; Latini, Roberto; Masson, Serge; Ristagno, Giuseppe; Pastorelli, Roberta

    2016-01-01

    Septic shock remains a major problem in Intensive Care Unit, with high lethality and high-risk second lines treatments. In this preliminary retrospective investigation we examined plasma metabolome and clinical features in a subset of 20 patients with severe septic shock (SOFA score >8), enrolled in the multicenter Albumin Italian Outcome Sepsis study (ALBIOS, NCT00707122). Our purpose was to evaluate the changes of circulating metabolites in relation to mortality as a pilot study to be extended in a larger cohort. Patients were analyzed according to their 28-days and 90-days mortality. Metabolites were measured using a targeted mass spectrometry-based quantitative metabolomic approach that included acylcarnitines, aminoacids, biogenic amines, glycerophospholipids, sphingolipids, and sugars. Data-mining techniques were applied to evaluate the association of metabolites with mortality. Low unsaturated long-chain phosphatidylcholines and lysophosphatidylcholines species were associated with long-term survival (90-days) together with circulating kynurenine. Moreover, a decrease of these glycerophospholipids was associated to the event at 28-days and 90-days in combination with clinical variables such as cardiovascular SOFA score (28-day mortality model) or renal replacement therapy (90-day mortality model). Early changes in the plasma levels of both lipid species and kynurenine associated with mortality have potential implications for early intervention and discovering new target therapy. PMID:26847922

  6. Use of Life Course Work–Family Profiles to Predict Mortality Risk Among US Women

    PubMed Central

    Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M. Maria; Berkman, Lisa F.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. We examined relationships between US women’s exposure to midlife work–family demands and subsequent mortality risk. Methods. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work–family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work–family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Results. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Conclusions. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work–family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years. PMID:25713976

  7. Kidney damage biomarkers detect acute kidney injury but only functional markers predict mortality after paraquat ingestion.

    PubMed

    Mohamed, Fahim; Buckley, Nicholas A; Jayamanne, Shaluka; Pickering, John W; Peake, Philip; Palangasinghe, Chathura; Wijerathna, Thilini; Ratnayake, Indira; Shihana, Fathima; Endre, Zoltan H

    2015-09-01

    Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common following paraquat ingestion. The diagnostic performance of injury biomarkers was investigated in serial blood and urine samples from patients from 5 Sri Lankan hospitals. Functional AKI was diagnosed using serum creatinine (sCr) or serum cystatin C (sCysC). The 95th centile in healthy subjects defined the urinary biomarker cutoffs for diagnosing structural AKI. 50 poisoned patients provided 2 or more specimens, 76% developed functional AKI [AKIN stage 1 (n=12), 2 (n=7) or 3 (n=19)]; 19/26 patients with AKIN stage 2/3 also had functional AKI by sCysC criteria (≥50% increase). Urinary cystatin C (uCysC), clusterin (uClu) and NGAL (uNGAL) increased within 24h of ingestion compared with NoAKI patients and healthy controls. Each biomarker demonstrated moderate diagnostic utility [AUC-ROC: uCysC 0.79, uNGAL 0.79, uClu 0.68] for diagnosis of functional AKI at 16h. Death occurred only in subjects with functional AKI. Structural biomarker-based definitions detected more AKI than did sCr or sCysC, but did not independently predict death. Renal injury biomarkers did not add clinical value to patients who died rapidly due to multi-organ failure. Use of injury biomarkers within 16-24h may guide early intervention for reno-protection in less severe paraquat poisoning. PMID:26071311

  8. Hydrologic Sensitivity Indices to Predict Changes Caused by Mountain Pine Beetle Mortality in Ungauged Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosin, K.; Weiler, M.

    2006-12-01

    In British Columbia, Canada, the mountain pine beetle (MPB) has developed into a real threat for forestry since it has infested 8.5 million hectares and destroyed 411 million cubic feet of lodgepole pines. The Forest Service estimates that 80 percent of the pines in central British Columbia will be dead in about seven years, what might have a notable impact on the hydrology of this region. As a matter of fact, there are hardly neither discharge gauges nor meteorological stations in the most affected areas. In order to predict the changes of the catchment hydrology resulting from MPB mortality, we have developed the Sensitive Area Mapping Model (SAMM). In SAMM the assessed basins are categorized according to their hydrologic sensitivity - into different runoff generation indices. The general idea behind this approach is, that due to the spatial variability of the impact of MPB mortality and subsequent forest management, there are sub-basins within a larger watershed that are more sensitive to changes than others; consequently they will respond hydrologically different. Therefore, sensitivity indices should be able to show, which areas rapidly convey runoff to a stream channel. Consequently, five runoff processes indices are spatially defined: Infiltration excess overland flow (categorized by fire history, soil compaction and road density of a region), saturation excess overland flow (categorized by elevation difference to stream, contributing area and hydrogeology), shallow subsurface flow (categorization by soil-bedrock interface permeability, soil depth, slope, parent material, distance to stream), deep subsurface flow (categorized by permeability of bedrock, soil depth, quaternary geology, distance to stream) and channel interception (precipitation that falls directly into the stream channel and lakes). The indices are computed using province-wide GIS data such as maps of the stream network, third order watersheds boundaries, digital elevation model, land use and

  9. Islet Oxygen Consumption Rate (OCR) Dose Predicts Insulin Independence in Clinical Islet Autotransplantation

    PubMed Central

    Papas, Klearchos K.; Bellin, Melena D.; Sutherland, David E. R.; Suszynski, Thomas M.; Kitzmann, Jennifer P.; Avgoustiniatos, Efstathios S.; Gruessner, Angelika C.; Mueller, Kathryn R.; Beilman, Gregory J.; Balamurugan, Appakalai N.; Loganathan, Gopalakrishnan; Colton, Clark K.; Koulmanda, Maria; Weir, Gordon C.; Wilhelm, Josh J.; Qian, Dajun; Niland, Joyce C.; Hering, Bernhard J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Reliable in vitro islet quality assessment assays that can be performed routinely, prospectively, and are able to predict clinical transplant outcomes are needed. In this paper we present data on the utility of an assay based on cellular oxygen consumption rate (OCR) in predicting clinical islet autotransplant (IAT) insulin independence (II). IAT is an attractive model for evaluating characterization assays regarding their utility in predicting II due to an absence of confounding factors such as immune rejection and immunosuppressant toxicity. Methods Membrane integrity staining (FDA/PI), OCR normalized to DNA (OCR/DNA), islet equivalent (IE) and OCR (viable IE) normalized to recipient body weight (IE dose and OCR dose), and OCR/DNA normalized to islet size index (ISI) were used to characterize autoislet preparations (n = 35). Correlation between pre-IAT islet product characteristics and II was determined using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Results Preparations that resulted in II had significantly higher OCR dose and IE dose (p<0.001). These islet characterization methods were highly correlated with II at 6–12 months post-IAT (area-under-the-curve (AUC) = 0.94 for IE dose and 0.96 for OCR dose). FDA/PI (AUC = 0.49) and OCR/DNA (AUC = 0.58) did not correlate with II. OCR/DNA/ISI may have some utility in predicting outcome (AUC = 0.72). Conclusions Commonly used assays to determine whether a clinical islet preparation is of high quality prior to transplantation are greatly lacking in sensitivity and specificity. While IE dose is highly predictive, it does not take into account islet cell quality. OCR dose, which takes into consideration both islet cell quality and quantity, may enable a more accurate and prospective evaluation of clinical islet preparations. PMID:26258815

  10. Does field independence predict visuo-spatial abilities underpinning human navigation? Behavioural evidence.

    PubMed

    Boccia, Maddalena; Piccardi, Laura; Di Marco, Mariangela; Pizzamiglio, Luigi; Guariglia, Cecilia

    2016-10-01

    Field independence (FI) has been defined as the extent to which the individual perceives part of a field as discrete from the surrounding field, rather than embedded in the field. It has been proposed to represent a relatively stable pattern in individuals' predisposition towards information processing. In the present study, we assessed the effect of FI on skills underpinning human navigation. Fifty Healthy individuals took part in this study. FI has been assessed by using the group embedded figures test (GEFT). Participants were also asked to perform several visuo-spatial orientation tasks, including the perspective taking/spatial orientation test (PTSOT), the mental rotation task (MRT) and the vividness task, as well as the Santa Barbara Sense of Direction Scale, a self-reported questionnaire, which has been found to predict environmental spatial orientation ability. We found that performances on the GEFT significantly predicted performances on the PTSOT and the MRT. This result supports the idea that FI predicts human navigation. PMID:27225254

  11. Low heel ultrasound parameters predict mortality in men: results from the European Male Ageing Study (EMAS)

    PubMed Central

    Pye, Stephen R.; Vanderschueren, Dirk; Boonen, Steven; Gielen, Evelien; Adams, Judith E.; Ward, Kate A.; Lee, David M.; Bartfai, György; Casanueva, Felipe F.; Finn, Joseph D.; Forti, Gianni; Giwercman, Aleksander; Han, Thang S.; Huhtaniemi, Ilpo T.; Kula, Krzysztof; Lean, Michael E.; Pendleton, Neil; Punab, Margus; Wu, Frederick C.; O'Neill, Terence W.

    2015-01-01

    Background: low bone mineral density measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry is associated with increased mortality. The relationship between other skeletal phenotypes and mortality is unclear. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between quantitative heel ultrasound parameters and mortality in a cohort of European men. Methods: men aged 40–79 years were recruited for participation in a prospective study of male ageing: the European Male Ageing Study (EMAS). At baseline, subjects attended for quantitative ultrasound (QUS) of the heel (Hologic—SAHARA) and completed questionnaires on lifestyle factors and co-morbidities. Height and weight were measured. After a median of 4.3 years, subjects were invited to attend a follow-up assessment, and reasons for non-participation, including death, were recorded. The relationship between QUS parameters (broadband ultrasound attenuation [BUA] and speed of sound [SOS]) and mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards model. Results: from a total of 3,244 men (mean age 59.8, standard deviation [SD] 10.8 years), 185 (5.7%) died during the follow-up period. After adjusting for age, centre, body mass index, physical activity, current smoking, number of co-morbidities and general health, each SD decrease in BUA was associated with a 20% higher risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per SD = 1.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.0–1.4). Compared with those in higher quintiles (2nd–5th), those in the lowest quintile of BUA and SOS had a greater mortality risk (BUA: HR = 1.6; 95% CI = 1.1–2.3 and SOS: HR = 1.6; 95% CI = 1.2–2.2). Conclusion: lower heel ultrasound parameters are associated with increased mortality in European men. PMID:26162912

  12. Diet Quality Scores and Prediction of All-Cause, Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality in a Pan-European Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Lassale, Camille; Gunter, Marc J.; Romaguera, Dora; Peelen, Linda M.; Van der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Beulens, Joline W. J.; Freisling, Heinz; Muller, David C.; Ferrari, Pietro; Huybrechts, Inge; Fagherazzi, Guy; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Affret, Aurélie; Overvad, Kim; Dahm, Christina C.; Olsen, Anja; Roswall, Nina; Tsilidis, Konstantinos K.; Katzke, Verena A.; Kühn, Tilman; Buijsse, Brian; Quirós, José-Ramón; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Etxezarreta, Nerea; Huerta, José María; Barricarte, Aurelio; Bonet, Catalina; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Key, Timothy J.; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Bamia, Christina; Lagiou, Pagona; Palli, Domenico; Agnoli, Claudia; Tumino, Rosario; Fasanelli, Francesca; Panico, Salvatore; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas; Boer, Jolanda M. A.; Sonestedt, Emily; Nilsson, Lena Maria; Renström, Frida; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Skeie, Guri; Lund, Eiliv; Moons, Karel G. M.; Riboli, Elio; Tzoulaki, Ioanna

    2016-01-01

    Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI) in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre) was 0.75 (0.72–0.79) to 0.88 (0.84–0.92) for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69–0.83) to 0.84 (0.76–0.92) for CVD and 0.78 (0.73–0.83) to 0.91 (0.85–0.97) for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors. PMID:27409582

  13. Diet Quality Scores and Prediction of All-Cause, Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality in a Pan-European Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Lassale, Camille; Gunter, Marc J; Romaguera, Dora; Peelen, Linda M; Van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Beulens, Joline W J; Freisling, Heinz; Muller, David C; Ferrari, Pietro; Huybrechts, Inge; Fagherazzi, Guy; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Affret, Aurélie; Overvad, Kim; Dahm, Christina C; Olsen, Anja; Roswall, Nina; Tsilidis, Konstantinos K; Katzke, Verena A; Kühn, Tilman; Buijsse, Brian; Quirós, José-Ramón; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Etxezarreta, Nerea; Huerta, José María; Barricarte, Aurelio; Bonet, Catalina; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Key, Timothy J; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Bamia, Christina; Lagiou, Pagona; Palli, Domenico; Agnoli, Claudia; Tumino, Rosario; Fasanelli, Francesca; Panico, Salvatore; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; Boer, Jolanda M A; Sonestedt, Emily; Nilsson, Lena Maria; Renström, Frida; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Skeie, Guri; Lund, Eiliv; Moons, Karel G M; Riboli, Elio; Tzoulaki, Ioanna

    2016-01-01

    Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI) in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre) was 0.75 (0.72-0.79) to 0.88 (0.84-0.92) for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69-0.83) to 0.84 (0.76-0.92) for CVD and 0.78 (0.73-0.83) to 0.91 (0.85-0.97) for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors.

  14. The sequential trauma score - a new instrument for the sequential mortality prediction in major trauma*

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background There are several well established scores for the assessment of the prognosis of major trauma patients that all have in common that they can be calculated at the earliest during intensive care unit stay. We intended to develop a sequential trauma score (STS) that allows prognosis at several early stages based on the information that is available at a particular time. Study design In a retrospective, multicenter study using data derived from the Trauma Registry of the German Trauma Society (2002-2006), we identified the most relevant prognostic factors from the patients basic data (P), prehospital phase (A), early (B1), and late (B2) trauma room phase. Univariate and logistic regression models as well as score quality criteria and the explanatory power have been calculated. Results A total of 2,354 patients with complete data were identified. From the patients basic data (P), logistic regression showed that age was a significant predictor of survival (AUCmodel p, area under the curve = 0.63). Logistic regression of the prehospital data (A) showed that blood pressure, pulse rate, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), and anisocoria were significant predictors (AUCmodel A = 0.76; AUCmodel P + A = 0.82). Logistic regression of the early trauma room phase (B1) showed that peripheral oxygen saturation, GCS, anisocoria, base excess, and thromboplastin time to be significant predictors of survival (AUCmodel B1 = 0.78; AUCmodel P +A + B1 = 0.85). Multivariate analysis of the late trauma room phase (B2) detected cardiac massage, abbreviated injury score (AIS) of the head ≥ 3, the maximum AIS, the need for transfusion or massive blood transfusion, to be the most important predictors (AUCmodel B2 = 0.84; AUCfinal model P + A + B1 + B2 = 0.90). The explanatory power - a tool for the assessment of the relative impact of each segment to mortality - is 25% for P, 7% for A, 17% for B1 and 51% for B2. A spreadsheet for the easy calculation of the sequential trauma score is

  15. The Drug Derived Complexity Index (DDCI) Predicts Mortality, Unplanned Hospitalization and Hospital Readmissions at the Population Level

    PubMed Central

    Robusto, Fabio; Lepore, Vito; D'Ettorre, Antonio; Lucisano, Giuseppe; De Berardis, Giorgia; Bisceglia, Lucia; Tognoni, Gianni; Nicolucci, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Objective to develop and validate the Drug Derived Complexity Index (DDCI), a predictive model derived from drug prescriptions able to stratify the general population according to the risk of death, unplanned hospital admission, and readmission, and to compare the new predictive index with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Design Population-based cohort study, using a record-linkage analysis of prescription databases, hospital discharge records, and the civil registry. The predictive model was developed based on prescription patterns indicative of chronic diseases, using a random sample of 50% of the population. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess weights of different prescription patterns and drug classes. The predictive properties of the DDCI were confirmed in the validation cohort, represented by the other half of the population. The performance of DDCI was compared to the CCI in terms of calibration, discrimination and reclassification. Setting 6 local health authorities with 2.0 million citizens aged 40 years or above. Results One year and overall mortality rates, unplanned hospitalization rates and hospital readmission rates progressively increased with increasing DDCI score. In the overall population, the model including age, gender and DDCI showed a high performance. DDCI predicted 1-year mortality, overall mortality and unplanned hospitalization with an accuracy of 0.851, 0.835, and 0.584, respectively. If compared to CCI, DDCI showed discrimination and reclassification properties very similar to the CCI, and improved prediction when used in combination with the CCI. Conclusions and Relevance DDCI is a reliable prognostic index, able to stratify the entire population into homogeneous risk groups. DDCI can represent an useful tool for risk-adjustment, policy planning, and the identification of patients needing a focused approach in everyday practice. PMID:26895073

  16. Advanced glycation end products and their circulating receptors predict cardiovascular disease mortality in older community-dwelling women

    PubMed Central

    Semba, Richard D.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Sun, Kai; Beck, Justine; Dalal, Mansi; Varadhan, Ravi; Walston, Jeremy; Guralnik, Jack M.; Fried, Linda P.

    2008-01-01

    Objective To characterize the relationship between advanced glycation end products (AGEs) and circulating receptors for AGEs (RAGE) with cardiovascular disease mortality. Methods The relationships between serum AGEs, total RAGE (sRAGE), and endogenous secretory RAGE (esRAGE), and mortality were characterized in 559 community-dwelling women, ≥65 years, in Baltimore, Maryland. Results During 4.5 years of follow-up, 123 (22%) women died, of whom 54 died with cardiovascular disease. The measure of serum AGEs was carboxymethyl-lysine (CML), a dominant AGE. Serum CML predicted cardiovascular disease mortality (Hazards Ratio [H.R.] for highest versus lower three quartiles 1.94, 95% Confidence Interval [C.I.] 1.08-3.48, P = 0.026), after adjusting for age, race, body mass index, and renal insufficiency. Serum sRAGE (ng/mL) and esRAGE (ng/mL) predicted cardiovascular disease mortality (H.R. per 1 Standard Deviation [S.D.] 1.27, 95% C.I. 0.98-1.65, P = 0.07; H.R. 1.28, 95% C.I. 1.02-1.63, P = 0.03), after adjusting for the same covariates. Among non-diabetic women, serum CML, sRAGE, and esRAGE, respectively, predicted cardiovascular disease mortality (H.R. for highest versus lower three quartiles, 2.29, 95% C.I. 1.21-4.34, P = 0.01; H.R. per 1 S.D., 1.24, 95% C.I. 0.92-1.65, P = 0.16; H.R. per 1 S.D. 1.45, 95% C.I. 1.08-1.93, P = 0.01), after adjusting for the same covariates. Conclusions High circulating AGEs and RAGE predict cardiovascular disease mortality among older community-dwelling women. AGEs are a potential target for interventions, as serum AGEs can be lowered by change in dietary pattern and pharmacological treatment. PMID:19448391

  17. Value of the "TAVI2-SCORe" versus surgical risk scores for prediction of one year mortality in 511 patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

    PubMed

    Debonnaire, Philippe; Fusini, Laura; Wolterbeek, Ron; Kamperidis, Vasileios; van Rosendael, Philippe; van der Kley, Frank; Katsanos, Spyridon; Joyce, Emer; Tamborini, Gloria; Muratori, Manuela; Gripari, Paola; Bax, Jeroen J; Marsan, Nina Ajmone; Pepi, Mauro; Delgado, Victoria

    2015-01-15

    A bedside-available transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI)-dedicated prognostic risk score is an unmet clinical need. We aimed to develop such a risk score predicting 1-year mortality post-TAVI and to compare it with the performance of the logistic EuroSCORE (LES) I and LES-II and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons' (STS) score. Baseline variables of 511 consecutive patients who underwent TAVI that were independently associated with 1-year mortality post-TAVI were included in the "TAVI2-SCORe." Discrimination and calibration abilities of the novel score were assessed and compared with surgical risk scores. One-year mortality was 17.0% (n = 80 of 471). Porcelain thoracic aorta (hazard ratio [HR] 2.56), anemia (HR 2.03), left ventricular dysfunction (HR 1.98), recent myocardial infarction (HR 3.78), male sex (HR 1.81), critical aortic valve stenosis (HR 2.46), old age (HR 1.68), and renal dysfunction (HR 1.76) formed the TAVI2-SCORe (all p <0.05). According to the number of points assigned (1 for each variable and 2 for infarction), patients were stratified into 5 risk categories: 0, 1 (HR 2.6), 2 (HR 3.6), 3 (HR 10.5), and ≥4 (HR 17.6). TAVI2-SCORe showed better discrimination ability (Harrells' C statistic 0.715) compared with LES-I, LES-II, and STS score (0.609, 0.633, and 0.50, respectively). Cumulative 1-year survival rate was 54% versus 88% for patients with TAVI2-SCORE ≥3 versus <3 points, respectively (p <0.001). Contrary to surgical risk scores, there was no significant difference between observed and expected 1-year mortality for all TAVI2-SCORe risk strata (all p >0.05, Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic 0.304), suggesting superior calibration performance. In conclusion, the TAVI2-SCORe is an accurate, simple, and bedside-available score predicting 1-year mortality post-TAVI, outperforming conventional surgical risk scores for this end point. PMID:25432413

  18. Sociosexual attitudes and dyadic sexual desire independently predict women's preferences for male vocal masculinity.

    PubMed

    O'Connor, Jillian J M; Jones, Benedict C; Fraccaro, Paul J; Tigue, Cara C; Pisanski, Katarzyna; Feinberg, David R

    2014-10-01

    Research suggests that the desire to behave sexually with a partner (dyadic sexual desire) may reflect desire for intimacy whereas solitary sexual desire may reflect pleasure seeking motivations more generally. Because direct reproductive success can only be increased with a sexual partner, we tested whether dyadic sexual desire was a better predictor of women's preferences for lower pitched men's voices (a marker of relatively high reproductive success) than was solitary sexual desire. In Study 1, women (N = 95) with higher dyadic sexual desire scores on the Sexual Desire Inventory-2 preferred masculinized male voices more than did women with lower dyadic sexual desire scores. We did not find a significant relationship between women's vocal masculinity preferences and their solitary sexual desire scores. In Study 2, we tested whether the relationship between voice preferences and dyadic sexual desire scores was related to differences in sociosexual orientation. Women (N = 80) with more positive attitudes towards uncommitted sex had stronger vocal masculinity preferences regardless of whether men's attractiveness was judged for short-term or long-term relationships. Independent of the effect of sociosexual attitudes, dyadic sexual desire positively predicted women's masculinity preferences when assessing men's attractiveness for short-term but not long-term relationships. These effects were independent of women's own relationship status and hormonal contraceptive use. Our results provide further evidence that women's mate preferences may independently reflect individual differences in both sexual desire and openness to short-term relationships, potentially with the ultimate function of maximizing the fitness benefits of women's mate choices.

  19. 25-Hydroxyvitamin D3 Deficiency Independently Predicts Cognitive Impairment in Patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

    PubMed Central

    Tay, Sen Hee; Ho, Chung Shun; Ho, Roger Chun-Man; Mak, Anselm

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Cognitive dysfunction has been reported in 20–80% of SLE patients. Converging evidence has indicated the importance of vitamin D as a neuroimmunomodulator for cognitive function. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between vitamin D and cognitive dysfunction. Methods Consecutive age- and gender-matched SLE patients and healthy controls (HCs) were administered Automated Neuropsychological Assessment Metrics in this cross-sectional study. The primary outcome was the total throughput score (TTS). Anxiety and depression were measured using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D3 and total 25(OH)D] were measured using Liquid Chromatography-Tandem Mass Spectrometry. Results In total, 61 SLE patients and 61 HCs were studied. SLE patients scored significantly lower than HCs in the TTS (p = 0.004). There were no statistically significant differences in 25(OH)D3 levels, total 25(OH)D levels and total 25(OH)D deficiency between SLE patients and HCs. However, more SLE patients had 25(OH)D3 deficiency compared to HCs [12 (19.7%) versus 2 (3.3%), p = 0.003]. Deficiency of 25(OH)D3 (β = -63.667, SE = 27.456, p = 0.025), but not other vitamin D variables, independently predicted worse TTS after adjusting for age, education, gender, ethnicity, HADS-Total, duration of SLE, SELENA-SLEDAI, SLICC/ACR Damage Index and cumulative steroid dose in SLE patients. Age (β = -4.261, SE = 0.866, p < 0.001) was the only predictor of TTS after adjusting for education, gender, ethnicity, HADS-Total, vitamin D levels or status in HCs. Conclusions Deficiency of 25(OH)D3, a potentially modifiable risk factor, independently predicted cognitive impairment in SLE patients. PMID:26636681

  20. Thymic function failure and C-reactive protein levels are independent predictors of all-cause mortality in healthy elderly humans.

    PubMed

    Ferrando-Martínez, Sara; Romero-Sánchez, María Concepción; Solana, Rafael; Delgado, Juan; de la Rosa, Rafael; Muñoz-Fernández, Ma Angeles; Ruiz-Mateos, Ezequiel; Leal, Manuel

    2013-02-01

    Relationship between thymic function and elderly survival has been suspected, despite the fact that formal proof is elusive due to technical limitations of thymic function-related markers. The newly described sj/β-TREC ratio allows now, by overcoming these limitations, an accurate measurement of thymic output in elderly humans. Thus, the aim of this study was to determine the impact of thymic function and inflammatory markers on healthy elderly human survival. Healthy volunteers (n = 151), aged over 65, were asked to participate (CARRERITAS cohort). Subjects were excluded if diagnosed of dementia or, during the last 6 months, had clinical data of infection, hospital admission, antitumor therapy, or any treatment that could influence the immune status. Thymic function (sj/β-TREC ratio), CD4:CD8 T cell ratio, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and neutrophilia were determined from basal samples. All basal variables and age were associated with 2-year all-cause mortality. Multivariate analysis showed that only thymic function and C-reactive protein were independently associated with time to death. In conclusion, we show, for the first time, the direct role of thymic function in human survival. C-reactive protein raise is also a marker of mortality in the healthy elderly, in a thymic-independent way.

  1. A predictive risk model for electroshock-induced mortality of the endangered Cape Fear shiner

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holliman, F.M.; Reynolds, J.B.; Kwak, T.J.

    2003-01-01

    We evaluated the effects of a single electroshock on injury and mortality of hatchery-reared Cape Fear shiners Notropis mekistocholas (N = 517), an endangered cyprinid. Groups of 18-22 Cape Fear shiners were exposed to DC, 120-Hz pulsed DC (PDC), or 60-Hz PDC at voltage gradients of 1.1, 1.9, or 2.7 V/cm for 3 s. Mortality occurred only among fish exposed to 120-Hz PDC (25%) and DC (38%) applied at 2.7 V/cm. Because no mortality occurred in Cape Fear shiners exposed to 60-Hz PDC, this waveform was selected for further study of electroshock duration (3, 6, 12, 24, or 48 s) and voltage gradient (0.9, 1.6, or 2.3 V/cm). Most fish electroshocked in the experiments were immobilized (ceased swimming motion). No physical injury was detected by necropsy or radiography in any fish. Electroshock-induced mortality of Cape Fear shiners showed a strong multivariable relationship to voltage gradient, electroshock duration, and fish length. Fish subjected to 60-Hz PDC at 0.9 or 1.6 V/cm for 6 s experienced low mortality (<10%). Our results demonstrate that Cape Fear shiners can be immobilized by 60-Hz PDC electroshock without injury or significant risk of mortality. We propose that electrofishing may be safely used to sample similar small cyprinids, imperiled or otherwise, when electrofishers select an appropriate waveform (DC pulsed at 60-Hz or less) and use it judiciously (minimal exposure at, or below, the immobilization threshold).

  2. Is Obesity Predictive of Cardiovascular Dysfunction Independent of Cardiovascular Risk Factors?

    PubMed Central

    DeVallance, Evan; Fournier, Sara B.; Donley, David A.; Bonner, Daniel E.; Lee, Kyuwan; Frisbee, Jefferson C.; Chantler, Paul D.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Obesity is thought to exert detrimental effects on the cardiovascular (CV) system. However, this relationship is impacted by the co-occurrence of CV risk factors, type II diabetes (T2DM), and overt disease. We examined the relationships between obesity, assessed by body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), and CV function in 102 subjects without overt CV disease. We hypothesized that obesity would be independently predictive of CV remodeling and functional differences, especially at peak exercise. Methods Brachial (bSBP) and central (cSBP) systolic pressure, carotid-to-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWVcf) augmentation index (AGI) (by SphygmoCor), and carotid remodeling (B-mode ultrasound) were examined at rest. Further, peak exercise cardiac imaging (Doppler ultrasound) was performed to measure the coupling between the heart and arterial system. Results In backward elimination regression models, accounting for CV risk factors, neither BMI nor WC were predictors of carotid thickness or PWVcf; rather age, triglycerides, and hypertension were the main determinants. However, BMI and WC predicted carotid cross-sectional area and lumen diameter. When examining the relationship between body size and SBP, BMI (β=0.32) and WC (β=0.25) were predictors of bSBP (p<0.05), whereas, BMI was the only predictor of cSBP (β=0.22, p<0.05) indicating a differential relationship between cSBP, bSBP and body size. Further, BMI (β=−0.26) and WC (β=−0.27) were independent predictors of AGI (p<0.05). As for resting cardiac diastolic function, WC seemed to be a better predictor than BMI. However, both BMI and WC were inversely and independently related to arterial elastance (net arterial load) and end-systolic elastance (cardiac contractility) at rest and peak exercise. Discussion These findings illustrate that obesity, without T2DM and overt CV disease, and after accounting for CV risk factors, is susceptible to pathophysiological adaptations that may

  3. A frailty index to predict the mortality risk in a population of senior mexican adults

    PubMed Central

    García-González, José Juan; García-Peña, Carmen; Franco-Marina, Francisco; Gutiérrez-Robledo, Luis Miguel

    2009-01-01

    Background Frailty in the elderly can be regarded as nonspecific vulnerability to adverse health outcomes, caused by multiple factors. The aim was to analyze the relationships between the frailty index, age and mortality in a two year follow up study of Mexican elderly. Methods A frailty index was developed using 34 variables. To obtain the index, the mean of the total score for each individual was obtained. Survival analyses techniques were used to examine the risk ratios for the different levels of the frailty index. Kaplan-Meier estimates were obtained, adjusted for age and gender. Cox proportional hazards models were also built to obtain hazard ratio estimates. Results A total of 4082 participants was analyzed. Participants had an average age of 73 years and 52.5% were women. On average, participants were followed-up for 710 days (standard deviation = 111 days) and 279 of them died. Mortality increased with the frailty index level, especially in those with levels between .21 to .65, reaching approximately 17% and 21%, respectively. Cox proportional hazards models showed that participants with frailty index levels associated to increased mortality (.21 and higher) represent 24.0% of those aged 65-69 years and 47.6% of those 85 and older. Conclusion The frailty index shows the properties found in the other studies, it allows stratifying older Mexican into several groups different by the degree of the risk of mortality, and therefore the frailty index can be used in assessing health of elderly. PMID:19887005

  4. Physical Activity Related to Depression and Predicted Mortality Risk: Results from the Americans' Changing Lives Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Pai-Lin; Lan, William; Lee, Charles C.-L.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the association between three types of physical activities (PA) and depression, and the relationship between PA and later mortality. Previous studies rarely assessed these associations in one single study in randomly selected population samples. Few studies have assessed these relations by adjusting the covariate of…

  5. Postoperative Prostate-Specific Antigen Velocity Independently Predicts for Failure of Salvage Radiotherapy After Prostatectomy

    SciTech Connect

    King, Christopher R. Presti, Joseph C.; Brooks, James D.; Gill, Harcharan; Spiotto, Michael T.

    2008-04-01

    Purpose: Identification of patients most likely to benefit from salvage radiotherapy (RT) using postoperative (postop) prostate-specific antigen (PSA) kinetics. Methods and Materials: From 1984 to 2004, 81 patients who fit the following criteria formed the study population: undetectable PSA after radical prostatectomy (RP); pathologically negative nodes; biochemical relapse defined as a persistently detectable PSA; salvage RT; and two or more postop PSAs available before salvage RT. Salvage RT included the whole pelvic nodes in 55 patients and 4 months of total androgen suppression in 56 patients. The median follow-up was >5 years. All relapses were defined as a persistently detectable PSA. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards multivariable analysis were performed for all clinical, pathological, and treatment factors predicting for biochemical relapse-free survival (bRFS). Results: There were 37 biochemical relapses observed after salvage RT. The 5-year bRFS after salvage RT for patients with postop prostate-specific antigen velocity {<=}1 vs. >1 ng/ml/yr was 59% vs. 29%, p = 0.002. In multivariate analysis, only postop PSAV (p = 0.0036), pre-RT PSA level {<=}1 (p = 0.037) and interval-to-relapse >10 months (p = 0.012) remained significant, whereas pelvic RT, hormone therapy, and RT dose showed a trend (p = {approx}0.06). PSAV, but not prostate-specific antigen doubling time, predicted successful salvage RT, suggesting an association of zero-order kinetics with locally recurrent disease. Conclusions: Postoperative PSA velocity independently predicts for the failure of salvage RT and can be considered in addition to high-risk features when selecting patients in need of systemic therapy following biochemical failure after RP. For well-selected patients, salvage RT can achieve high cure rates.

  6. Predicting occupancy for pygmy rabbits in Wyoming: an independent evaluation of two species distribution models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Germaine, Stephen S.; Ignizio, Drew; Keinath, Doug; Copeland, Holly

    2014-01-01

    Species distribution models are an important component of natural-resource conservation planning efforts. Independent, external evaluation of their accuracy is important before they are used in management contexts. We evaluated the classification accuracy of two species distribution models designed to predict the distribution of pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis habitat in southwestern Wyoming, USA. The Nature Conservancy model was deductive and based on published information and expert opinion, whereas the Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model was statistically derived using historical observation data. We randomly selected 187 evaluation survey points throughout southwestern Wyoming in areas predicted to be habitat and areas predicted to be nonhabitat for each model. The Nature Conservancy model correctly classified 39 of 77 (50.6%) unoccupied evaluation plots and 65 of 88 (73.9%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 63.3%. The Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model correctly classified 53 of 95 (55.8%) unoccupied plots and 59 of 88 (67.0%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 61.2%. Based on 95% asymptotic confidence intervals, classification success of the two models did not differ. The models jointly classified 10.8% of the area as habitat and 47.4% of the area as nonhabitat, but were discordant in classifying the remaining 41.9% of the area. To evaluate how anthropogenic development affected model predictive success, we surveyed 120 additional plots among three density levels of gas-field road networks. Classification success declined sharply for both models as road-density level increased beyond 5 km of roads per km-squared area. Both models were more effective at predicting habitat than nonhabitat in relatively undeveloped areas, and neither was effective at accounting for the effects of gas-energy-development road networks. Resource managers who wish to know the amount of pygmy rabbit habitat present in an

  7. Validity of the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) acute coronary syndrome prediction model for six month post‐discharge death in an independent data set

    PubMed Central

    Bradshaw, P J; Ko, D T; Newman, A M; Donovan, L R

    2006-01-01

    Objective To determine the validity of the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) prediction model for death six months after discharge in all forms of acute coronary syndrome in an independent dataset of a community based cohort of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Design Independent validation study based on clinical data collected retrospectively for a clinical trial in a community based population and record linkage to administrative databases. Setting Study conducted among patients from the EFFECT (enhanced feedback for effective cardiac treatment) study from Ontario, Canada. Patients Randomly selected men and women hospitalised for AMI between 1999 and 2001. Main outcome measure Discriminatory capacity and calibration of the GRACE prediction model for death within six months of hospital discharge in the contemporaneous EFFECT AMI study population. Results Post‐discharge crude mortality at six months for the EFFECT study patients with AMI was 7.0%. The discriminatory capacity of the GRACE model was good overall (C statistic 0.80) and for patients with ST segment elevation AMI (STEMI) (0.81) and non‐STEMI (0.78). Observed and predicted deaths corresponded well in each stratum of risk at six months, although the risk was underestimated by up to 30% in the higher range of scores among patients with non‐STEMI. Conclusions In an independent validation the GRACE risk model had good discriminatory capacity for predicting post‐discharge death at six months and was generally well calibrated, suggesting that it is suitable for clinical use in general populations. PMID:16387810

  8. Drug release from extruded solid lipid matrices: theoretical predictions and independent experiments.

    PubMed

    Güres, Sinan; Siepmann, Florence; Siepmann, Juergen; Kleinebudde, Peter

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to use a mechanistically realistic mathematical model based on Fick's second law to quantitatively predict the release profiles from solid lipid extrudates consisting of a ternary matrix. Diprophylline was studied as a freely water-soluble model drug, glycerol tristearate as a matrix former and polyethylene glycol or crospovidone as a pore former (blend ratio: 50:45:5%w/w/w). The choice of these ratios is based on former studies. Strains with a diameter of 0.6, 1, 1.5, 2.7 and 3.5mm were prepared using a twin-screw extruder at 65 °C and cut into cylinders of varying lengths. Drug release in demineralised water was measured using the USP 32 basket apparatus. Based on SEM pictures of extrudates before and after exposure to the release medium as well as on DSC measurements and visual observations, an analytical solution of Fick's second law of diffusion was identified in order to quantify the resulting diprophylline release kinetics from the systems. Fitting the model to one set of experimentally determined diprophylline release kinetics from PEG containing extrudates allowed determining the apparent diffusion coefficient of this drug (or water) in this lipid matrix. Knowing this value, the impact of the dimensions of the cylinders on drug release could be quantitatively predicted. Importantly, these theoretical predictions could be confirmed by independent experimental results. Thus, diffusion is the dominant mass transport mechanism controlling drug release in this type of advanced drug delivery systems. In contrast, theoretical predictions of the impact of the device dimensions in the case of crospovidone containing extrudates significantly underestimated the real diprophylline release rates. This could be attributed to the disintegration of this type of dosage forms when exceeding a specific minimal device diameter. Thus, mathematical modelling can potentially significantly speed up the development of solid lipid extrudates, but care has

  9. Cytotoxic Virulence Predicts Mortality in Nosocomial Pneumonia Due to Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

    PubMed

    Rose, Hannah R; Holzman, Robert S; Altman, Deena R; Smyth, Davida S; Wasserman, Gregory A; Kafer, Jared M; Wible, Michelle; Mendes, Rodrigo E; Torres, Victor J; Shopsin, Bo

    2015-06-15

    The current study identified bacterial factors that may improve management of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) nosocomial pneumonia. Isolates were obtained from 386 patients enrolled in a randomized, controlled study of antibiotic efficacy. Isolates were screened for production of virulence factors and for vancomycin susceptibility. After adjustment for host factors such as severity of illness and treatment modality, cytotoxic activity was strongly and inversely associated with mortality; however, it had no effect on clinical cure. Isolates having low cytotoxicity, which were derived largely from healthcare-associated clones, exhibited a greater prevalence of vancomycin heteroresistance, and they were recovered more often from patients who were older and frailer. Additionally, a clone with low cytotoxic activity was associated with death and poor clinical improvement. Clone specificity and attenuated virulence appear to be associated with outcome. To our knowledge, these are the first correlations between MRSA virulence and mortality in nosocomial pneumonia.

  10. Cytotoxic Virulence Predicts Mortality in Nosocomial Pneumonia Due to Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus

    PubMed Central

    Rose, Hannah R.; Holzman, Robert S.; Altman, Deena R.; Smyth, Davida S.; Wasserman, Gregory A.; Kafer, Jared M.; Wible, Michelle; Mendes, Rodrigo E.; Torres, Victor J.; Shopsin, Bo

    2015-01-01

    The current study identified bacterial factors that may improve management of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) nosocomial pneumonia. Isolates were obtained from 386 patients enrolled in a randomized, controlled study of antibiotic efficacy. Isolates were screened for production of virulence factors and for vancomycin susceptibility. After adjustment for host factors such as severity of illness and treatment modality, cytotoxic activity was strongly and inversely associated with mortality; however, it had no effect on clinical cure. Isolates having low cytotoxicity, which were derived largely from healthcare-associated clones, exhibited a greater prevalence of vancomycin heteroresistance, and they were recovered more often from patients who were older and frailer. Additionally, a clone with low cytotoxic activity was associated with death and poor clinical improvement. Clone specificity and attenuated virulence appear to be associated with outcome. To our knowledge, these are the first correlations between MRSA virulence and mortality in nosocomial pneumonia. PMID:25298028

  11. Frailty Index Predicts All-Cause Mortality for Middle-Aged and Older Taiwanese: Implications for Active-Aging Programs

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Shu-Yu; Lee, Wei-Ju; Chou, Ming-Yueh; Peng, Li-Ning; Chiou, Shu-Ti; Chen, Liang-Kung

    2016-01-01

    Background Frailty Index, defined as an individual’s accumulated proportion of listed health-related deficits, is a well-established metric used to assess the health status of old adults; however, it has not yet been developed in Taiwan, and its local related structure factors remain unclear. The objectives were to construct a Taiwan Frailty Index to predict mortality risk, and to explore the structure of its factors. Methods Analytic data on 1,284 participants aged 53 and older were excerpted from the Social Environment and Biomarkers of Aging Study (2006), in Taiwan. A consensus workgroup of geriatricians selected 159 items according to the standard procedure for creating a Frailty Index. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to explore the association between the Taiwan Frailty Index and mortality. Exploratory factor analysis was used to identify structure factors and produce a shorter version–the Taiwan Frailty Index Short-Form. Results During an average follow-up of 4.3 ± 0.8 years, 140 (11%) subjects died. Compared to those in the lowest Taiwan Frailty Index tertile (< 0.18), those in the uppermost tertile (> 0.23) had significantly higher risk of death (Hazard ratio: 3.2; 95% CI 1.9–5.4). Thirty-five items of five structure factors identified by exploratory factor analysis, included: physical activities, life satisfaction and financial status, health status, cognitive function, and stresses. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (C-statistics) of the Taiwan Frailty Index and its Short-Form were 0.80 and 0.78, respectively, with no statistically significant difference between them. Conclusion Although both the Taiwan Frailty Index and Short-Form were associated with mortality, the Short-Form, which had similar accuracy in predicting mortality as the full Taiwan Frailty Index, would be more expedient in clinical practice and community settings to target frailty screening and intervention. PMID:27537684

  12. Plasma Amino Acid Concentrations Predict Mortality in Patients with End-Stage Liver Disease

    PubMed Central

    Kinny-Köster, Benedict; Bartels, Michael; Becker, Susen; Scholz, Markus; Thiery, Joachim

    2016-01-01

    Background The liver plays a key role in amino acid metabolism. In former studies, a ratio between branched-chain and aromatic amino acids (Fischer’s ratio) revealed associations with hepatic encephalopathy. Furthermore, low concentrations of branched-chain amino acids were linked to sarcopenia in literature. Encephalopathy and sarcopenia are known to dramatically worsen the prognosis. Aim of this study was to investigate a complex panel of plasma amino acids in the context of mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease. Methods 166 patients evaluated for orthotopic liver transplantation were included. 19 amino acids were measured from citrated plasma samples using mass spectrometry. We performed survival analysis for plasma amino acid constellations and examined the relationship to established mortality predictors. Results 33/166 (19.9%) patients died during follow-up. Lower values of valine (p<0.001), Fischer’s ratio (p<0.001) and valine to phenylalanine ratio (p<0.001) and higher values of phenylalanine (p<0.05) and tyrosine (p<0.05) were significantly associated with mortality. When divided in three groups, the tertiles discriminated cumulative survival for valine (p = 0.016), phenylalanine (p = 0.024) and in particular for valine to phenylalanine ratio (p = 0.003) and Fischer’s ratio (p = 0.005). Parameters were also significantly correlated with MELD and MELD-Na score. Conclusions Amino acids in plasma are valuable biomarkers to determine increased risk of mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease. In particular, valine concentrations and constellations composed of branched-chain and aromatic amino acids were strongly associated with prognosis. Due to their pathophysiological importance, the identified amino acids could be used to examine individual dietary recommendations to serve as potential therapeutic targets. PMID:27410482

  13. Predicting mortality in patients treated differently: updating and external validation of a prediction model for nursing home residents with dementia and lower respiratory infections

    PubMed Central

    Heymans, Martijn W; Mehr, David R; Kruse, Robin L; Lane, Patricia; Kowall, Neil W; Volicer, Ladislav; van der Steen, Jenny T

    2016-01-01

    Objective To evaluate whether a model that was previously developed to predict 14-day mortality for nursing home residents with dementia and lower respiratory tract infection who received antibiotics could be applied to residents who were not treated with antibiotics. Specifically, in this same data set, to update the model using recalibration methods; and subsequently examine the historical, geographical, methodological and spectrum transportability through external validation of the updated model. Design 1 cohort study was used to develop the prediction model, and 4 cohort studies from 2 countries were used for the external validation of the model. Setting Nursing homes in the Netherlands and the USA. Participants 157 untreated residents were included in the development of the model; 239 untreated residents were included in the external validation cohorts. Outcome Model performance was evaluated by assessing discrimination: area under the receiver operating characteristic curves; and calibration: Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics and calibration graphs. Further, reclassification tables allowed for a comparison of patient classifications between models. Results The original prediction model applied to the untreated residents, who were sicker, showed excellent discrimination but poor calibration, underestimating mortality. Adjusting the intercept improved calibration. Recalibrating the slope did not substantially improve the performance of the model. Applying the updated model to the other 4 data sets resulted in acceptable discrimination. Calibration was inadequate only in one data set that differed substantially from the other data sets in case-mix. Adjusting the intercept for this population again improved calibration. Conclusions The discriminative performance of the model seems robust for differences between settings. To improve calibration, we recommend adjusting the intercept when applying the model in settings where different mortality rates

  14. Do self-reported health indicators predict mortality? Evidence from Matlab, Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Razzaque, Abdur; Mustafa, A H M G; Streatfield, Peter Kim

    2014-09-01

    In order to understand current and changing patterns of population health, there is a clear need for high-quality health indicators. The World Health Organization Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health (SAGE) survey platform and the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and Their Health in developing countries (INDEPTH) generated data for this study. A total of 4300 people aged 50 years or older were selected randomly from the Matlab Health and Demographic Surveillance System of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh. The health indicators derived from these survey data are self-rated general health, overall health state, quality of life and disability levels. The outcome of the study is mortality over a 2-year follow-up since the survey. Among the four health indicators, only self-rated health was significantly associated with subsequent mortality irrespective of sex: those who reported bad health had higher mortality than those who reported good health, even after controlling for socio-demographic factors. For all other three health indicators, such associations exist but are significant only for males, while for females it is significant only for 'quality of life'.

  15. Development of a metabolites risk score for one-year mortality risk prediction in pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients

    PubMed Central

    Fontana, Andrea; Mazza, Tommaso; Tavano, Francesca; Gioffreda, Domenica; Mattivi, Fulvio; Andriulli, Angelo; Vrhovsek, Urska; Pazienza, Valerio

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Survival among patients with adenocarcinoma pancreatic cancer (PDCA) is highly variable, which ranges from 0% to 20% at 5 years. Such a wide range is due to tumor size and stage, as well other patients' characteristics. We analyzed alterations in the metabolomic profile, of PDCA patients, which are potentially predictive of patient's one-year mortality. Experimental design A targeted metabolomic assay was conducted on serum samples of patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Statistical analyses were performed only for those 27 patients with information on vital status at follow-up and baseline clinical features. Random Forest analysis was performed to identify all metabolites and clinical variables with the best capability to predict patient's mortality risk at one year. Regression coefficients were estimated from multivariable Weibull survival model, which included the most associated metabolites. Such coefficients were used as weights to build a metabolite risk score (MRS) which ranged from 0 (lowest mortality risk) to 1 (highest mortality risk). The stability of these weights were evaluated performing 10,000 bootstrap resamplings. Results MRS was built as a weighted linear combination of the following five metabolites: Valine (HR = 0.62, 95%CI: 0.11–1.71 for each standard deviation (SD) of 98.57), Sphingomyeline C24:1 (HR = 2.66, 95%CI: 1.30–21.09, for each SD of 20.67), Lysine (HR = 0.36, 95%CI: 0.03–0.77, for each SD of 51.73), Tripentadecanoate TG15 (HR = 0.25, 95%CI: 0.01–0.82, for each SD of 2.88) and Symmetric dimethylarginine (HR = 2.24, 95%CI: 1.28–103.08, for each SD of 0.62), achieving a very high discrimination ability (survival c-statistic of 0.855, 95%CI: 0.816–0.894). Such association was still present even after adjusting for the most associated clinical variables (confounders). Conclusions The mass spectrometry-based metabolomic profiling of serum represents a valid tool for discovering novel candidate biomarkers with

  16. Longitudinal Blood Pressure Control, Long-Term Mortality, and Predictive Utility of Serum Liver Enzymes and Bilirubin in Hypertensive Patients

    PubMed Central

    McCallum, Linsay; Panniyammakal, Jeemon; Hastie, Claire E.; Hewitt, Jonathan; Patel, Rajan; Jones, Gregory C.; Muir, Scott; Walters, Matthew; Sattar, Naveed; Dominiczak, Anna F.

    2015-01-01

    There is accruing evidence from general population studies that serum bilirubin and liver enzymes affect blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular risk, but it is unclear whether these have an impact on hypertensive patients in terms of long-term survival or BP control. We analyzed 12 000 treated hypertensive individuals attending a tertiary care clinic followed up for 35 years for association between baseline liver function tests and cause-specific mortality after adjustment for conventional cardiovascular covariates. Generalized estimating equations were used to study the association of liver tests and follow-up BP. The total time at risk was 173 806 person years with median survival 32.3 years. Follow-up systolic BP over 5 years changed by −0.4 (alanine transaminase and bilirubin), +2.1(alkaline phosphatase), +0.9(γ-glutamyl transpeptidase) mm Hg for each standard deviation increase. Serum total bilirubin and alanine transaminase showed a significant negative association with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, whereas alkaline phosphatase and γ-glutamyl transpeptidase showed a positive association and aspartate transaminase showed a U-shapedassociation. Serum bilirubin showed an incremental improvement of continuous net reclassification improvement by 8% to 26% for 25 year and 35 year cardiovascular mortality, whereas all liver markers together improved continuous net reclassification improvement by 19% to 47% compared with reference model. In hypertensive patients, serum liver enzymes and bilirubin within 4 standard deviations of the mean show independent effects on mortality and BP control. Our findings would support further studies to elucidate the mechanisms by which liver enzymes and bilirubin may exert an effect on BP and cardiovascular risk, but there is little support for using them in risk stratification. PMID:25941342

  17. The Cohort Study on Prediction of Incidence of All-Cause Mortality by Metabolic Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Li, Zhixia; Yang, Xinghua; Yang, Jun; Yang, Zhirong; Wang, Shengfeng

    2016-01-01

    Aim The aim was to evaluate the impact of metabolic syndrome (MS), MS individual components and 32 kinds of MS specific component combinations on all-cause mortality risk in a fixed cohort of MJ check-up population. Methods We observed the events of death in a fixed cohort, where the population was composed of 45,542 individuals aged 35–74 who were examined at MJ Health check-up Center in 1997 as baseline examination, and were followed up to 2005. Median duration of follow-up was 7.44 years. MS was defined according to the National Cholesterol Educational Program (the revised NCEP-ATPIII for Asian in 2004), the prevalence of MS was standardized according to China’s fifth census data. We constructed common Cox regression model, simultaneously adjusting the classic risk factors (such as age, sex, smoking, alcohol drinking, physical activity, family history, etc.) to examine the relationship between MS, MS individual components and 32 kinds of MS specific component combinations on the occurrence of death with the fixed cohort. Results The standardized prevalence of MS was 29.75% (male: 30.36%, female: 29.51%). There were 1,749 persons who died during the median 7.44-years follow-up, the mortality rate was 46 per 10,000 person years. The mortality rates were 71 and 35 per 10,000 person years for those with and without MS, respectively. After adjustment for age, sex and classical risk factors, compared with subjects without MS, the hazard ratio of all-cause mortality was 1.26 (95% CI: 1.14–1.40). The all-cause mortality were more highly significant than other combinations (P <0.05) when the following combinations exist: “elevated blood pressure”, “elevated fasting plasma glucose + low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol”, “elevated blood pressure + elevated triglyceride + elevated fasting plasma glucose”, “elevated fasting plasma glucose + low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol + elevated blood pressure + elevated triglyceride”. After adjusting

  18. Midlife blood pressure predicts future diastolic dysfunction independently of blood pressure

    PubMed Central

    Ghosh, Arjun Kumar; Hughes, Alun David; Francis, Darrel; Chaturvedi, Nishi; Pellerin, Denis; Deanfield, John; Kuh, Diana; Mayet, Jamil; Hardy, Rebecca

    2016-01-01

    Objectives High blood pressure (BP) is associated with diastolic dysfunction, but the consequence of elevated BP over the adult life course on diastolic function is unknown. We hypothesised that high BP in earlier adulthood would be associated with impaired diastolic function independent of current BP. Methods Participants in the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development birth cohort (n=1653) underwent investigations including echocardiography at age 60–64 years. The relationships between adult BP, antihypertensive treatment (HTT) and echocardiographic measures of diastolic function were assessed using adjusted regression models. Results Increased systolic BP (SBP) at ages 36, 43 and 53 years was predictive of increased E/e′ and increased left atrial volume. These effects were only partially explained by SBP at 60–64 years and increased left ventricular mass. HTT was also associated with poorer diastolic function after adjustment for SBP at 60–64 years. Faster rates of increase in SBP in midlife were also associated with increased poorer diastolic function. Conclusions High SBP in midlife is associated with poorer diastolic function at age 60–64 years. Early identification of individuals with high BP or rapid rises in BP may be important for prevention of impaired cardiac function in later life. PMID:27056972

  19. Predicting cumulative risk of bovine respiratory disease complex (BRDC) using feedlot arrival data and daily morbidity and mortality counts

    PubMed Central

    Babcock, Abram H.; White, Brad J.; Renter, David G.; Dubnicka, Suzanne R.; Scott, H. Morgan

    2013-01-01

    Although bovine respiratory disease complex (BRDC) is common in post-weaning cattle, BRDC prediction models are seldom analyzed. The objectives of this study were to assess the ability to predict cumulative cohort-level BRDC morbidity using on-arrival risk factors and to evaluate whether or not adding BRDC risk classification and daily BRDC morbidity and mortality data to the models enhanced their predictive ability. Retrospective cohort-level and individual animal health data were used to create mixed negative binomial regression (MNBR) models for predicting cumulative risk of BRDC morbidity. Logistic regression models were used to illustrate that the percentage of correctly (within |5%| of actual) classified cohorts increased across days, but the effect of day was modified by arrival weight, arrival month, and feedlot. Cattle arriving in April had the highest (77%) number of lots correctly classified at arrival and cattle arriving in December had the lowest (28%). Classification accuracy at arrival varied according to initial weight, ranging from 17% (< 182 kg) to 91% (> 409 kg). Predictive accuracy of the models improved from 64% at arrival to 74% at 8 days on feed (DOF) when risk code was known compared to 56% accuracy at arrival and 69% at 8 DOF when risk classification was not known. The results of this study demonstrate how the predictive ability of models can be improved by utilizing more refined data on the prior history of cohorts, thus making these models more useful to operators of commercial feedlots. PMID:23814354

  20. Tree-Based Models for Predicting Mortality in Gram-Negative Bacteremia: Avoid Putting the CART before the Horse

    PubMed Central

    O'Donnell, J. Nicholas; Lizza, Bryan D.; McLaughlin, Milena M.; Esterly, John S.

    2015-01-01

    Increasingly, infectious disease studies employ tree-based approaches, e.g., classification and regression tree modeling, to identify clinical thresholds. We present tree-based-model-derived thresholds along with their measures of uncertainty. We explored individual and pooled clinical cohorts of bacteremic patients to identify modified acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (II) (m-APACHE-II) score mortality thresholds using a tree-based approach. Predictive performance measures for each candidate threshold were calculated. Candidate thresholds were examined according to binary logistic regression probabilities of the primary outcome, correct classification predictive matrices, and receiver operating characteristic curves. Three individual cohorts comprising a total of 235 patients were studied. Within the pooled cohort, the mean (± standard deviation) m-APACHE-II score was 13.6 ± 5.3, with an in-hospital mortality of 16.6%. The probability of death was greater at higher m-APACHE II scores in only one of three cohorts (odds ratio for cohort 1 [OR1] = 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.99 to 1.34; OR2 = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.94 to 1.16; OR3 = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.38) and was greater at higher scores within the pooled cohort (OR4 = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.19). In contrast, tree-based models overcame power constraints and identified m-APACHE-II thresholds for mortality in two of three cohorts (P = 0.02, 0.1, and 0.008) and the pooled cohort (P = 0.001). Predictive performance at each threshold was highly variable among cohorts. The selection of any one predictive threshold value resulted in fixed sensitivity and specificity. Tree-based models increased power and identified threshold values from continuous predictor variables; however, sample size and data distributions influenced the identified thresholds. The provision of predictive matrices or graphical displays of predicted probabilities within infectious disease studies can improve the

  1. Tree-Based Models for Predicting Mortality in Gram-Negative Bacteremia: Avoid Putting the CART before the Horse.

    PubMed

    Rhodes, Nathaniel J; O'Donnell, J Nicholas; Lizza, Bryan D; McLaughlin, Milena M; Esterly, John S; Scheetz, Marc H

    2016-02-01

    Increasingly, infectious disease studies employ tree-based approaches, e.g., classification and regression tree modeling, to identify clinical thresholds. We present tree-based-model-derived thresholds along with their measures of uncertainty. We explored individual and pooled clinical cohorts of bacteremic patients to identify modified acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (II) (m-APACHE-II) score mortality thresholds using a tree-based approach. Predictive performance measures for each candidate threshold were calculated. Candidate thresholds were examined according to binary logistic regression probabilities of the primary outcome, correct classification predictive matrices, and receiver operating characteristic curves. Three individual cohorts comprising a total of 235 patients were studied. Within the pooled cohort, the mean (± standard deviation) m-APACHE-II score was 13.6 ± 5.3, with an in-hospital mortality of 16.6%. The probability of death was greater at higher m-APACHE II scores in only one of three cohorts (odds ratio for cohort 1 [OR1] = 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.99 to 1.34; OR2 = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.94 to 1.16; OR3 = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.38) and was greater at higher scores within the pooled cohort (OR4 = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.19). In contrast, tree-based models overcame power constraints and identified m-APACHE-II thresholds for mortality in two of three cohorts (P = 0.02, 0.1, and 0.008) and the pooled cohort (P = 0.001). Predictive performance at each threshold was highly variable among cohorts. The selection of any one predictive threshold value resulted in fixed sensitivity and specificity. Tree-based models increased power and identified threshold values from continuous predictor variables; however, sample size and data distributions influenced the identified thresholds. The provision of predictive matrices or graphical displays of predicted probabilities within infectious disease studies can improve the

  2. Tree-Based Models for Predicting Mortality in Gram-Negative Bacteremia: Avoid Putting the CART before the Horse.

    PubMed

    Rhodes, Nathaniel J; O'Donnell, J Nicholas; Lizza, Bryan D; McLaughlin, Milena M; Esterly, John S; Scheetz, Marc H

    2016-02-01

    Increasingly, infectious disease studies employ tree-based approaches, e.g., classification and regression tree modeling, to identify clinical thresholds. We present tree-based-model-derived thresholds along with their measures of uncertainty. We explored individual and pooled clinical cohorts of bacteremic patients to identify modified acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (II) (m-APACHE-II) score mortality thresholds using a tree-based approach. Predictive performance measures for each candidate threshold were calculated. Candidate thresholds were examined according to binary logistic regression probabilities of the primary outcome, correct classification predictive matrices, and receiver operating characteristic curves. Three individual cohorts comprising a total of 235 patients were studied. Within the pooled cohort, the mean (± standard deviation) m-APACHE-II score was 13.6 ± 5.3, with an in-hospital mortality of 16.6%. The probability of death was greater at higher m-APACHE II scores in only one of three cohorts (odds ratio for cohort 1 [OR1] = 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.99 to 1.34; OR2 = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.94 to 1.16; OR3 = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.38) and was greater at higher scores within the pooled cohort (OR4 = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.19). In contrast, tree-based models overcame power constraints and identified m-APACHE-II thresholds for mortality in two of three cohorts (P = 0.02, 0.1, and 0.008) and the pooled cohort (P = 0.001). Predictive performance at each threshold was highly variable among cohorts. The selection of any one predictive threshold value resulted in fixed sensitivity and specificity. Tree-based models increased power and identified threshold values from continuous predictor variables; however, sample size and data distributions influenced the identified thresholds. The provision of predictive matrices or graphical displays of predicted probabilities within infectious disease studies can improve the

  3. Using machine learning methods for predicting inhospital mortality in patients undergoing open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm.

    PubMed

    Monsalve-Torra, Ana; Ruiz-Fernandez, Daniel; Marin-Alonso, Oscar; Soriano-Payá, Antonio; Camacho-Mackenzie, Jaime; Carreño-Jaimes, Marisol

    2016-08-01

    An abdominal aortic aneurysm is an abnormal dilatation of the aortic vessel at abdominal level. This disease presents high rate of mortality and complications causing a decrease in the quality of life and increasing the cost of treatment. To estimate the mortality risk of patients undergoing surgery is complex due to the variables associated. The use of clinical decision support systems based on machine learning could help medical staff to improve the results of surgery and get a better understanding of the disease. In this work, the authors present a predictive system of inhospital mortality in patients who were undergoing to open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm. Different methods as multilayer perceptron, radial basis function and Bayesian networks are used. Results are measured in terms of accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the classifiers, achieving an accuracy higher than 95%. The developing of a system based on the algorithms tested can be useful for medical staff in order to make a better planning of care and reducing undesirable surgery results and the cost of the post-surgical treatments. PMID:27395372

  4. Comparison of the Ability to Predict Mortality between the Injury Severity Score and the New Injury Severity Score: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Deng, Qiangyu; Tang, Bihan; Xue, Chen; Liu, Yuan; Liu, Xu; Lv, Yipeng; Zhang, Lulu

    2016-01-01

    Background: Description of the anatomical severity of injuries in trauma patients is important. While the Injury Severity Score has been regarded as the “gold standard” since its creation, several studies have indicated that the New Injury Severity Score is better. Therefore, we aimed to systematically evaluate and compare the accuracy of the Injury Severity Score and the New Injury Severity Score in predicting mortality. Methods: Two researchers independently searched the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases and included studies from which the exact number of true-positive, false-positive, false-negative, and true-negative results could be extracted. Quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies checklist criteria. The meta-analysis was performed using Meta-DiSc. Meta-regression, subgroup analyses, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the source(s) of heterogeneity and factor(s) affecting the accuracy of the New Injury Severity Score and the Injury Severity Score in predicting mortality. Results: The heterogeneity of the 11 relevant studies (total n = 11,866) was high (I2 > 80%). The meta-analysis using a random-effects model resulted in sensitivity of 0.64, specificity of 0.93, positive likelihood ratio of 5.11, negative likelihood ratio of 0.27, diagnostic odds ratio of 27.75, and area under the summary receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.9009 for the Injury Severity Score; and sensitivity of 0.71, specificity of 0.87, positive likelihood ratio of 5.22, negative likelihood ratio of 0.20, diagnostic odds ratio of 24.74, and area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.9095 for the New Injury Severity Score. Conclusion: The New Injury Severity Score and the Injury Severity Score have similar abilities in predicting mortality. Further research is required to determine the appropriate use of the Injury Severity Score or the New Injury Severity Score based on specific

  5. Predicting growth and mortality of bivalve larvae using gene expression and supervised machine learning.

    PubMed

    Bassim, Sleiman; Chapman, Robert W; Tanguy, Arnaud; Moraga, Dario; Tremblay, Rejean

    2015-12-01

    It is commonly known that the nature of the diet has diverse consequences on larval performance and longevity, however it is still unclear which genes have critical impacts on bivalve development and which pathways are of particular importance in their vulnerability or resistance. First we show that a diet deficient in essential fatty acid (EFA) produces higher larval mortality rates, a reduced shell growth, and lower postlarval performance, all of which are positively correlated with a decline in arachidonic and eicosapentaenoic acids levels, two EFAs known as eicosanoid precursors. Eicosanoids affect the cell inflammatory reactions and are synthesized from long-chain EFAs. Second, we show for the first time that a deficiency in eicosanoid precursors is associated with a network of 29 genes. Their differential regulation can lead to slower growth and higher mortality of Mytilus edulis larvae. Some of these genes are specific to bivalves and others are implicated at the same time in lipid metabolism and defense. Several genes are expressed only during pre-metamorphosis where they are essential for muscle or neurone development and biomineralization, but only in stress-induced larvae. Finally, we discuss how our networks of differentially expressed genes might dynamically alter the development of marine bivalves, especially under dietary influence.

  6. Plasma fatty acids in chronic kidney disease: nervonic acid predicts mortality.

    PubMed

    Shearer, Gregory C; Carrero, Juan J; Heimbürger, Olof; Barany, Peter; Stenvinkel, Peter

    2012-03-01

    Although the value of red blood cell fatty acids (FAs) in estimating risk for acute coronary syndrome in the general population is evident, the value of FAs in chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unknown. Here, we provide a pilot analysis in a spectrum of CKD patients. Plasma samples were obtained from 20 incident dialysis patients (CKD stage 5), matched with samples from 10 CKD stage 3-4 patients, and 10 control subjects. Whole plasma FAs were measured using gas chromatography. Whereas neither linoleic acid nor arachidonate acid were altered in CKD, metabolic intermediates of arachidonate synthesis (γ-linolenate and dihomo γ-linolenate) were reduced in CKD. Demming (orthogonal) correlation of FA abundance with estimated GFR identified several saturated and unsaturated FAs in addition to the intermediates; again, neither linoleate nor arachidonate were related. Follow-up data within the CKD stage 5 patients revealed that nervonic acid, a component of membrane sphingolipids and phosphatidylethanolamines, was a significant predictor of all-cause mortality; the age-adjusted relative risk for a 0.15% change is 2.1 (1.4, 3.7; 95% CI; P = .0008). These findings support the exploration of FAs in larger studies for validation of the role FAs in cardiovascular risk and mortality in CKD.

  7. The utility of inflammatory markers to predict readmissions and mortality in COPD cases with or without eosinophilia

    PubMed Central

    Duman, Dildar; Aksoy, Emine; Agca, Meltem Coban; Kocak, Nagihan Durmus; Ozmen, Ipek; Akturk, Ulku Aka; Gungor, Sinem; Tepetam, Fatma Merve; Eroglu, Selma Aydogan; Oztas, Selahattin; Karakurt, Zuhal

    2015-01-01

    Background COPD exacerbations requiring hospitalization increase morbidity and mortality. Although most COPD exacerbations are neutrophilic, approximately 10%–25% of exacerbations are eosinophilic. Aim We aimed to evaluate mortality and outcomes of eosinophilic and non-eosinophilic COPD exacerbations and identify new biomarkers that predict survival. Methods A retrospective observational cohort study was carried out in a tertiary teaching hospital from January 1, 2014 to November 1, 2014. All COPD patients hospitalized with exacerbations were enrolled in the study at their initial hospitalization and followed-up for 6 months after discharge. Electronic data were collected from the hospital database. Subjects’ characteristics, hemogram parameters, CRP levels, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-mean platelet volume ratio on admission and discharge, length of hospital stay (days), readmissions, and mortality were recorded. Patients were grouped according to peripheral blood eosinophil (PBE) levels: Group 1, >2% PBE, eosinophilic; Group 2, non-eosinophilic ≤2%. Patient survival after hospital discharge was evaluated by Kaplan–Meier survival analysis. Results A total of 1,704 patients hospitalized with COPD exacerbation were included. Approximately 20% were classified as eosinophilic. Six-month mortality was similar in eosinophilic and non-eosinophilic groups (14.2% and 15.2%, respectively); however, the hospital stay length and readmission rate were longer and higher in the non-eosinophilic group (P<0.001 and P<0.01, respectively). CRP and NLR were significantly higher in the non-eosinophilic group (both P<0.01). The platelet-to-mean platelet volume ratio was not different between the two groups. Cox regression analysis showed that survival was negatively influenced by elevated CRP (P<0.035) and NLR (P<0.001) in the non-eosinophilic group. Conclusion Non-eosinophilic patients with COPD exacerbations with high CRP and NLR values had worse outcomes

  8. Predicting Early Mortality in Adult Trauma Patients Admitted to Three Public University Hospitals in Urban India: A Prospective Multicentre Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Gerdin, Martin; Roy, Nobhojit; Khajanchi, Monty; Kumar, Vineet; Dharap, Satish; Felländer-Tsai, Li; Petzold, Max; Bhoi, Sanjeev; Saha, Makhan Lal; von Schreeb, Johan

    2014-01-01

    Background In India alone, more than one million people die yearly due to trauma. Identification of patients at risk of early mortality is crucial to guide clinical management and explain prognosis. Prediction models can support clinical judgement, but existing models have methodological limitations. The aim of this study was to derive a vital sign based prediction model for early mortality among adult trauma patients admitted to three public university hospitals in urban India. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study of adult trauma patients admitted to three urban university hospitals in India between October 2013 and January 2014. The outcome measure was mortality within 24 hours. We used logistic regression with restricted cubic splines to derive our model. We assessed model performance in terms of discrimination, calibration, and optimism. Results A total of 1629 patients were included. Median age was 35, 80% were males. Mortality between admission and 24 hours was 6%. Our final model included systolic blood pressure, heart rate, and Glasgow coma scale. Our model displayed good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROCC) of 0.85. Predicted mortality corresponded well with observed mortality, indicating good calibration. Conclusion This study showed that routinely recorded systolic blood pressure, heart rate, and Glasgow coma scale predicted early hospital mortality in trauma patients admitted to three public university hospitals in urban India. Our model needs to be externally validated before it can be applied in the clinical setting. PMID:25180494

  9. PREDICTIVE MODELING OF LIGHT-INDUCED MORTALITY OF ENTEROCOCCI FAECALIS IN RECREATIONAL WATERS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One approach to predictive modeling of biological contamination of recreational waters involves the application of process-based approaches that consider microbial sources, hydrodynamic transport, and microbial fate. This presentation focuses on one important fate process, light-...

  10. Can we use serum gamma-glutamyl transferase levels to predict early mortality in stroke?

    PubMed Central

    Akinci, Emine; Doğan, Nurettin Özgür; Gümüş, Haluk; Akilli, Nazire belgin

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Serum gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) is a marker for alcohol consumption and hepatobiliary diseases. There are reports on the prognostic role of GGT in coronary artery diseases and stroke. The aim of our study was to identify the potential differences in GGT levels in different types of stroke, and to evaluate the correlation between GGT and 30-day mortality. Method: Patients diagnosed with stroke in emergency department between 01.01.2010 and 30.12.2012 was included in the study. Imaging techniques were used to distinguish between hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke. Ischemic strokes were further classified as either atherosclerotic/lacunar or embolic. Parameters including age, gender, vital signs (systolic and diastolic blood pressure), comorbid diseases (HT, DM, CAD, smoking and alcohol consumption), used medications, previous history of stroke, NIHSS score at the time of admission to emergency department, laboratory parameters (glucose, white blood cell count, hemoglobin, platelet, total cholesterol, creatinine) and duration of hospitalization were recorded. Death records were obtained from patients’ medical records. Results: One thousand eighty six patients were included in the study. GGT levels were not significantly different between ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes (p=0.435). On the other hand, GGT levels in embolic strokes were significantly higher compared to atherosclerotic/lacunar strokes (p=0.001). GGT levels [median 24.50 (16.00-43.00)] in Intensive Care Unit patients were significantly higher compared to GGT level [22.00 (15.00-34.25)] in admitted to service beds patients (p=0.015). Median GGT level of deceased patients was 24.00 (16.00-41.25) and median GGT level of alive patients was 22.00 (15.00-35.00). GGT level of deceased patients was significantly higher compared to GGT levels of alive patients (p=0.048). Conclusion: There was no difference in GGT levels between ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes; however, GGT levels in embolic

  11. Low Serum Creatine Kinase Level Predicts Mortality in Patients with a Chronic Kidney Disease

    PubMed Central

    Metzger, Marie; Chassé, Jean-François; Haymann, Jean-Philippe; Boffa, Jean-Jacques; Flamant, Martin; Vrtovsnik, François; Houillier, Pascal; Stengel, Bénédicte

    2016-01-01

    Background Serum creatine kinase (sCK) reflects CK activity from striated skeletal muscle. Muscle wasting is a risk factor for mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The aim of this study is to evaluate whether sCK is a predictor of mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in a CKD population. Methods We included 1801 non-dialysis-dependent CKD patients from the NephroTest cohort. We used time-fixed and time-dependent cause-specific Cox models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of death and for the risk of ESRD associated with gender-specific sCK tertiles. Results Higher sCK level at baseline was associated with a lower age, a higher body mass index, and a higher level of 24 h urinary creatinine excretion, serum albumin and prealbumin (p<0.001). Men, patients of sub-Saharan ancestry, smokers and statin users also experienced a higher level of sCK. In a time-fixed Cox survival model (median follow-up 6.0 years), the lowest gender-specific sCK tertile was associated with a higher risk of death before and after adjustment for confounders (Crude model: hazard ratio (HR) 1.77 (95% CI: 1.34–2.32) compared to the highest tertile; fully-adjusted model: HR 1.37 (95% CI: 1.02–1.86)). Similar results were obtained with a time-dependent Cox model. The sCK level was not associated with the risk of ESRD. Conclusion A low level of sCK is associated with an increased risk of death in a CKD population. sCK levels might reflect muscle mass and nutritional status. PMID:27248151

  12. Ambulatory heart rate range predicts mode-specific mortality and hospitalisation in chronic heart failure

    PubMed Central

    Cubbon, Richard M; Ruff, Naomi; Groves, David; Eleuteri, Antonio; Denby, Christine; Kearney, Lorraine; Ali, Noman; Walker, Andrew M N; Jamil, Haqeel; Gierula, John; Gale, Chris P; Batin, Phillip D; Nolan, James; Shah, Ajay M; Fox, Keith A A; Sapsford, Robert J; Witte, Klaus K; Kearney, Mark T

    2016-01-01

    Objective We aimed to define the prognostic value of the heart rate range during a 24 h period in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods Prospective observational cohort study of 791 patients with CHF associated with left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Mode-specific mortality and hospitalisation were linked with ambulatory heart rate range (AHRR; calculated as maximum minus minimum heart rate using 24 h Holter monitor data, including paced and non-sinus complexes) in univariate and multivariate analyses. Findings were then corroborated in a validation cohort of 408 patients with CHF with preserved or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. Results After a mean 4.1 years of follow-up, increasing AHRR was associated with reduced risk of all-cause, sudden, non-cardiovascular and progressive heart failure death in univariate analyses. After accounting for characteristics that differed between groups above and below median AHRR using multivariate analysis, AHRR remained strongly associated with all-cause mortality (HR 0.991/bpm increase in AHRR (95% CI 0.999 to 0.982); p=0.046). AHRR was not associated with the risk of any non-elective hospitalisation, but was associated with heart-failure-related hospitalisation. AHRR was modestly associated with the SD of normal-to-normal beats (R2=0.2; p<0.001) and with peak exercise-test heart rate (R2=0.33; p<0.001). Analysis of the validation cohort revealed AHRR to be associated with all-cause and mode-specific death as described in the derivation cohort. Conclusions AHRR is a novel and readily available prognosticator in patients with CHF, which may reflect autonomic tone and exercise capacity. PMID:26674986

  13. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio predicts persistent organ failure and in-hospital mortality in an Asian Chinese population of acute pancreatitis.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yushun; Wu, Wei; Dong, Liming; Yang, Chong; Fan, Ping; Wu, Heshui

    2016-09-01

    Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has frequently been reported as a significant indicator of systemic inflammation in various medical conditions. The association underlying NLR and outcomes in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) has not been evaluated after the publication of revised Atlanta classification.This was a single-center retrospective diagnostic accuracy study and a cohort outcome study. From 2009 to 2015, Asian Chinese patients with a diagnosis of AP presented within 72 hours from symptom onset and underwent neutrophil, lymphocyte assessment at presentation were included in this study. The outcomes were the occurrence of persistent organ failure (POF), intensive care unit (ICU) stay >7 days, and in-hospital mortality. The relationships of baseline neutrophil, lymphocyte count, and NLR with outcomes were assessed with multivariate Cox regression model.A total of 974 consecutive AP patients were clinically eligible. The mean neutrophils, lymphocytes, and NLR for the entire population were 10.23 ± 4.76  × 10/L, 1.05 ± 0.49  × 10/L, and 12.88 ± 11.25. Overall, 223 (22.9%) of the patients developed with POF, 202 (20.7%) spent more than 7 days in ICU, and 58 (6.0%) died during hospitalization. The NLR had a superior predictive performance than neutrophils and lymphocytes. Using an NLR cutoff of 11, the area under the curves (AUC) were 0.76 for POF, 0.74 for longer ICU stay, and 0.79 for death during hospitalization. After multivariate analysis, NLR ≥ 11 was further identified as an independent prognostic factor (hazard ratio [HR] 1.37, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.89; HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.03-2.00; HR 2.75, 95% CI 1.12-6.76; all P value < 0.05). Following stratification according to quartiles of NLR, positive trends for the association across increasing NLR quartiles and the 3 outcomes were observed (P values for trends across quartiles were 0.007, 0.016, and 0.028, respectively). The adjusted HRs for highest

  14. Observational attachment theory-based parenting measures predict children's attachment narratives independently from social learning theory-based measures.

    PubMed

    Matias, Carla; O'Connor, Thomas G; Futh, Annabel; Scott, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Conceptually and methodologically distinct models exist for assessing quality of parent-child relationships, but few studies contrast competing models or assess their overlap in predicting developmental outcomes. Using observational methodology, the current study examined the distinctiveness of attachment theory-based and social learning theory-based measures of parenting in predicting two key measures of child adjustment: security of attachment narratives and social acceptance in peer nominations. A total of 113 5-6-year-old children from ethnically diverse families participated. Parent-child relationships were rated using standard paradigms. Measures derived from attachment theory included sensitive responding and mutuality; measures derived from social learning theory included positive attending, directives, and criticism. Child outcomes were independently-rated attachment narrative representations and peer nominations. Results indicated that Attachment theory-based and Social Learning theory-based measures were modestly correlated; nonetheless, parent-child mutuality predicted secure child attachment narratives independently of social learning theory-based measures; in contrast, criticism predicted peer-nominated fighting independently of attachment theory-based measures. In young children, there is some evidence that attachment theory-based measures may be particularly predictive of attachment narratives; however, no single model of measuring parent-child relationships is likely to best predict multiple developmental outcomes. Assessment in research and applied settings may benefit from integration of different theoretical and methodological paradigms.

  15. Decreased HLA-DR antigen-associated invariant chain (CD74) mRNA expression predicts mortality after septic shock

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Septic syndromes remain the leading cause of mortality in intensive care units (ICU). Septic patients rapidly develop immune dysfunctions, the intensity and duration of which have been linked with deleterious outcomes. Decreased mRNA expressions of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class II-related genes have been reported after sepsis. We investigated whether their mRNA levels in whole blood could predict mortality in septic shock patients. Methods A total of 93 septic shock patients were included. On the third day after shock, the mRNA expressions of five MHC class II-related genes (CD74, HLA-DRA, HLA-DMB, HLA-DMA, CIITA) were measured by qRT-PCR and monocyte human leukocyte antigen-DR (mHLA-DR) by flow cytometry. Results A significant correlation was found among MHC class II related gene expressions. Among mRNA markers, the best prognostic value was obtained for CD74 (HLA-DR antigen-associated invariant chain). For this parameter, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated (AUC = 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.55 to 0.79; P = 0.01) as well as the optimal cut-off value. After stratification based on this threshold, survival curves showed that a decreased CD74 mRNA level was associated with increased mortality after septic shock (Log rank test, P = 0.0043, Hazard Ratio = 3.0, 95% CI: 1.4 to 6.5). Importantly, this association remained significant after multivariate logistic regression analysis including usual clinical confounders (that is, severity scores, P = 0.026, Odds Ratio = 3.4, 95% CI: 1.2 to 9.8). Conclusion Decreased CD74 mRNA expression significantly predicts 28-day mortality after septic shock. After validation in a larger multicentric study, this biomarker could become a robust predictor of death in septic patients. PMID:24321376

  16. CMR Imaging With Rapid Visual T1 Assessment Predicts Mortality in Patients Suspected of Cardiac Amyloidosis

    PubMed Central

    White, James A.; Kim, Han W.; Shah, Dipan; Fine, Nowell; Kim, Ki-Young; Wendell, David C.; Al-Jaroudi, Wael; Parker, Michele; Patel, Manesh; Gwadry-Sridhar, Femida; Judd, Robert M.; Kim, Raymond J.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES This study tested the diagnostic and prognostic utility of a rapid, visual T1 assessment method for identification of cardiac amyloidosis (CA) in a “real-life” referral population undergoing cardiac magnetic resonance for suspected CA. BACKGROUND In patients with confirmed CA, delayed-enhancement cardiac magnetic resonance (DE-CMR) frequently shows a diffuse, global hyperenhancement (HE) pattern. However, imaging is often technically challenging, and the prognostic significance of diffuse HE is unclear. METHODS Ninety consecutive patients referred for suspected CA and 64 hypertensive patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) were prospectively enrolled and underwent a modified DE-CMR protocol. After gadolinium administration a method for rapid, visual T1 assessment was used to identify the presence of diffuse HE during the scan, allowing immediate optimization of settings for the conventional DE-CMR that followed. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. RESULTS Among patients with suspected CA, 66% (59 of 90) demonstrated HE, with 81% (48 of 59) of these meeting pre-specified visual T1 assessment criteria for diffuse HE. Among hypertensive LVH patients, 6% (4 of 64) had HE, with none having diffuse HE. During 29 months of follow-up (interquartile range: 12 to 44 months), there were 50 (56%) deaths in patients with suspected CA and 4 (6%) in patients with hypertensive LVH. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that the presence of diffuse HE was the most important predictor of death in the group with suspected CA (hazard ratio: 5.5, 95% confidence interval: 2.7 to 11.0; p < 0.0001) and in the population as a whole (hazard ratio: 6.0, 95% confidence interval 3.0 to 12.1; p < 0.0001). Among 25 patients with myocardial histology obtained during follow-up, the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of diffuse HE in the diagnosis of CA were 93%, 70%, and 84%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Among patients suspected of CA, the presence of diffuse HE by

  17. Plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin predicts acute kidney injury, morbidity and mortality after pediatric cardiac surgery: a prospective uncontrolled cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Dent, Catherine L; Ma, Qing; Dastrala, Sudha; Bennett, Michael; Mitsnefes, Mark M; Barasch, Jonathan; Devarajan, Prasad

    2007-01-01

    Introduction Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent complication of cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). The lack of early biomarkers has impaired our ability to intervene in a timely manner. We previously showed in a small cohort of patients that plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), measured using a research enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, is an early predictive biomarker of AKI after CPB. In this study we tested whether a point-of-care NGAL device can predict AKI after CPB in a larger cohort. Methods First, in a cross-sectional pilot study including 40 plasma samples (NGAL range 60 to 730 ng/ml) and 12 calibration standards (NGAL range 0 to 1,925 ng/ml), NGAL measurements by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and by Triage® NGAL Device (Biosite Inc., San Diego, CA, USA) were highly correlated (r = 0.94). Second, in a subsequent prospective uncontrolled cohort study, 120 children undergoing CPB were enrolled. Plasma was collected at baseline and at frequent intervals for 24 hours after CPB, and analyzed for NGAL using the Triage® NGAL device. The primary outcome was AKI, which was defined as a 50% or greater increase in serum creatinine. Results AKI developed in 45 patients (37%), but the diagnosis using serum creatinine was delayed by 2 to 3 days after CPB. In contrast, mean plasma NGAL levels increased threefold within 2 hours of CPB and remained significantly elevated for the duration of the study. By multivariate analysis, plasma NGAL at 2 hours after CPB was the most powerful independent predictor of AKI (β = 0.004, P < 0.0001). For the 2-hour plasma NGAL measurement, the area under the curve was 0.96, sensitivity was 0.84, and specificity was 0.94 for prediction of AKI using a cut-off value of 150 ng/ml. The 2 hour postoperative plasma NGAL levels strongly correlated with change in creatinine (r = 0.46, P < 0.001), duration of AKI (r = 0.57, P < 0.001), and length of hospital stay (r = 0.44, P < 0.001). The 12-hour plasma NGAL strongly

  18. Electronic Nose Based on Independent Component Analysis Combined with Partial Least Squares and Artificial Neural Networks for Wine Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Aguilera, Teodoro; Lozano, Jesús; Paredes, José A.; Álvarez, Fernando J.; Suárez, José I.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this work is to propose an alternative way for wine classification and prediction based on an electronic nose (e-nose) combined with Independent Component Analysis (ICA) as a dimensionality reduction technique, Partial Least Squares (PLS) to predict sensorial descriptors and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for classification purpose. A total of 26 wines from different regions, varieties and elaboration processes have been analyzed with an e-nose and tasted by a sensory panel. Successful results have been obtained in most cases for prediction and classification. PMID:22969387

  19. Functional Capacity, Respiratory Muscle Strength, and Oxygen Consumption Predict Mortality in Patients with Cirrhosis

    PubMed Central

    Telles da Rosa, Luis Henrique; Garcia, Eduardo; Marroni, Cláudio Augusto

    2016-01-01

    Introduction. Liver diseases influence musculoskeletal functions and may negatively affect the exercise capacity of patients with cirrhosis. Aim. To test the relationship between the six-minute walk test (6MWT), maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP), and exercise capacity (VO2peak) measures and the survival rate of patients with cirrhosis. Methods. This prospective cohort study consisted of 86 patients diagnosed with cirrhosis with the following aetiology: hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and/or alcoholic cirrhosis (AC). All patients were followed up for three years and submitted to the 6MWT, pressure measurements with a compound gauge, and an exercise test (VO2peak). Results. The survival analysis showed that the individuals who covered a distance shorter than 410 m during the 6MWT had a survival rate of 55% compared with a rate of 97% for the individuals who walked more than 410 m (p = 0.0001). Individuals with MIPs below −70 cmH2O had a survival rate of 62% compared with a rate of 93% for those with MIPs above −70 cmH2O (p = 0.0001). The patients with values below 17 mL/kg had a survival rate of 55% compared with a rate of 94% for those with values above 17 mL/kg (p = 0.0001). Conclusion. The 6MWT distance, MIP, and oxygen consumption are predictors of mortality in patients with cirrhosis. PMID:27559536

  20. Functional Capacity, Respiratory Muscle Strength, and Oxygen Consumption Predict Mortality in Patients with Cirrhosis.

    PubMed

    Faustini Pereira, José Leonardo; Galant, Lucas Homercher; Rossi, Danusa; Telles da Rosa, Luis Henrique; Garcia, Eduardo; de Mello Brandão, Ajácio Bandeira; Marroni, Cláudio Augusto

    2016-01-01

    Introduction. Liver diseases influence musculoskeletal functions and may negatively affect the exercise capacity of patients with cirrhosis. Aim. To test the relationship between the six-minute walk test (6MWT), maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP), and exercise capacity (VO2peak) measures and the survival rate of patients with cirrhosis. Methods. This prospective cohort study consisted of 86 patients diagnosed with cirrhosis with the following aetiology: hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and/or alcoholic cirrhosis (AC). All patients were followed up for three years and submitted to the 6MWT, pressure measurements with a compound gauge, and an exercise test (VO2peak). Results. The survival analysis showed that the individuals who covered a distance shorter than 410 m during the 6MWT had a survival rate of 55% compared with a rate of 97% for the individuals who walked more than 410 m (p = 0.0001). Individuals with MIPs below -70 cmH2O had a survival rate of 62% compared with a rate of 93% for those with MIPs above -70 cmH2O (p = 0.0001). The patients with values below 17 mL/kg had a survival rate of 55% compared with a rate of 94% for those with values above 17 mL/kg (p = 0.0001). Conclusion. The 6MWT distance, MIP, and oxygen consumption are predictors of mortality in patients with cirrhosis. PMID:27559536

  1. Migration-inducing gene 7 promotes tumorigenesis and angiogenesis and independently predicts poor prognosis of epithelial ovarian cancer

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Bihui; Yin, Mingzhu; Li, Xia; Cao, Guosheng; Qi, Jin; Lou, Ge; Sheng, Shijie; Kou, Junping; Chen, Kang; Yu, Boyang

    2016-01-01

    Epithelial ovarian carcinomas (EOC) cause more mortality than any other cancer of the female reproductive system. New therapeutic approaches to reduce EOC mortality have been largely unsuccessful due to the poor understanding of the mechanisms underlying EOC proliferation and metastasis. Progress in EOC treatment is further hampered by a lack of reliable prognostic biomarkers for early risk assessment. In this study, we identify that Migration-Inducting Gene 7 (MIG-7) is specifically induced in human EOC tissues but not normal ovaries or ovarian cyst. Ovarian MIG-7 expression strongly correlated with EOC progression. Elevated MIG-7 level at the time of primary cytoreductive surgery was a strong and independent predictor of poor survival of EOC patients. Cell and murine xenograft models showed that MIG-7 was required for EOC proliferation and invasion, and MIG-7 enhanced EOC-associated angiogenesis by promoting the expression of vascular endothelial growth factor. Inhibiting MIG-7 by RNA interference in grafted EOC cells retarded tumor growth, angiogenesis and improved host survival, and suppressing MIG-7 expression with a small molecule inhibitor D-39 identified from the medicinal plant Liriope muscari mitigated EOC growth and invasion and specifically abrogated the expression of vascular endothelial growth factor. Our data not only reveal a critical function of MIG-7 in EOC growth and metastasis and support MIG-7 as an independent prognostic biomarker for EOC, but also demonstrate that therapeutic targeting of MIG-7 is likely beneficial in the treatment of EOC. PMID:27050277

  2. Mortality and One-Year Functional Outcome in Elderly and Very Old Patients with Severe Traumatic Brain Injuries: Observed and Predicted.

    PubMed

    Røe, Cecilie; Skandsen, Toril; Manskow, Unn; Ader, Tiina; Anke, Audny

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate mortality and functional outcome in old and very old patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) and compare to the predicted outcome according to the internet based CRASH (Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head injury) model based prediction, from the Medical Research Council (MRC). Methods. Prospective, national multicenter study including patients with severe TBI ≥ 65 years. Predicted mortality and outcome were calculated based on clinical information (CRASH basic) (age, GCS score, and pupil reactivity to light), as well as with additional CT findings (CRASH CT). Observed 14-day mortality and favorable/unfavorable outcome according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale at one year was compared to the predicted outcome according to the CRASH models. Results. 97 patients, mean age 75 (SD 7) years, 64% men, were included. Two patients were lost to follow-up; 48 died within 14 days. The predicted versus the observed odds ratio (OR) for mortality was 2.65. Unfavorable outcome (GOSE < 5) was observed at one year follow-up in 72% of patients. The CRASH models predicted unfavorable outcome in all patients. Conclusion. The CRASH model overestimated mortality and unfavorable outcome in old and very old Norwegian patients with severe TBI.

  3. Does Cognitive Ability Predict Mortality in the Ninth Decade? The Lothian Birth Cohort 1921

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murray, Catherine; Pattie, Alison; Starr, John M.; Deary, Ian J.

    2012-01-01

    To test whether cognitive ability predicts survival from age 79 to 89 years data were collected from 543 (230 male) participants who entered the study at a mean age of 79.1 years. Most had taken the Moray House Test of general intelligence (MHT) when aged 11 and 79 years from which, in addition to intelligence measures at these two time points,…

  4. Peritoneal wash contents used to predict mortality in a murine sepsis model

    PubMed Central

    Kuethe, Joshua W.; Midura, Emily F.; Rice, Teresa C.; Caldwell, Charles C.

    2016-01-01

    Background Cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) is considered the gold standard for inducing abdominal sepsis in mice. However, the model lacks source control, a component of sepsis management in humans. Using a CLP-excision model, we characterized peritoneal cytokines and cells and hypothesized these analyses would allow us to predict survival. Methods Fifty-eight mice were first subjected to CLP. Twenty hours later, the necrotic cecums were debrided, abdominal cavity lavaged, and intraperitoneal antibiotics administered. Peritoneal cytokines and leukocytes collected from the peritoneal lavage were analyzed. These immune parameters were used to generate receiver operator characteristic curves. In separate experiments, the accuracy of the model was verified with a survival cohort. Finally, we collected the peritoneal lavage and analyzed both serum and peritoneal cytokines, bacterial load, and leukocyte functionality. Results Peritoneal interleukin (IL)-6 levels and neutrophil CD11b intensity were observed to be significantly different in mice that lived versus those who died. In separate experiments, mice predicted to live (P-LIVE) had decreased bacterial loads, systemic IL-10, and neutrophil oxidative burst and increased peritoneal inflammatory monocyte numbers and phagocytosis. Conclusions This study couples a clinically relevant sepsis model with methodology to limit pathogen spread. Using surgical waste, stratification of the mice into groups P-LIVE and predicted to die was possible with a high degree of accuracy and specificity. In mice P-LIVE, increased inflammatory monocyte recruitment and phagocytosis were associated with decreased systemic IL-10 and bacterial loads. PMID:26049288

  5. A contemporary risk model for predicting 30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention in England and Wales

    PubMed Central

    McAllister, Katherine S.L.; Ludman, Peter F.; Hulme, William; de Belder, Mark A.; Stables, Rodney; Chowdhary, Saqib; Mamas, Mamas A.; Sperrin, Matthew; Buchan, Iain E.

    2016-01-01

    Background The current risk model for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the UK is based on outcomes of patients treated in a different era of interventional cardiology. This study aimed to create a new model, based on a contemporary cohort of PCI treated patients, which would: predict 30 day mortality; provide good discrimination; and be well calibrated across a broad risk-spectrum. Methods and results The model was derived from a training dataset of 336,433 PCI cases carried out between 2007 and 2011 in England and Wales, with 30 day mortality provided by record linkage. Candidate variables were selected on the basis of clinical consensus and data quality. Procedures in 2012 were used to perform temporal validation of the model. The strongest predictors of 30-day mortality were: cardiogenic shock; dialysis; and the indication for PCI and the degree of urgency with which it was performed. The model had an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.85 on the training data and 0.86 on validation. Calibration plots indicated a good model fit on development which was maintained on validation. Conclusion We have created a contemporary model for PCI that encompasses a range of clinical risk, from stable elective PCI to emergency primary PCI and cardiogenic shock. The model is easy to apply and based on data reported in national registries. It has a high degree of discrimination and is well calibrated across the risk spectrum. The examination of key outcomes in PCI audit can be improved with this risk-adjusted model. PMID:26942330

  6. Elevated Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 Concentration: Prediction of Mortality among Chronic Kidney Disease Patients

    PubMed Central

    Chathoth, Shahanas; Al-Mueilo, Samir; Cyrus, Cyril; Vatte, Chittibabu; Al-Nafaie, Awatif; Al-Ali, Rudaynah; Keating, Brendan J.; Al-Muhanna, Fahad; Al Ali, Amein

    2015-01-01

    Background The osteocyte-derived hormone, fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23), regulates the phosphorus metabolism and suppresses 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D production, thereby mitigating hyperphosphatemia in patients with renal disorders. An elevated FGF23 level is suggested to be an early biomarker of altered phosphorus metabolism in the initial stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and acts as a strong predictor of mortality in dialysis patients. In the Saudi population, there is no report on the FGF23 level in CKD patients to date. This study aims to estimate the plasma FGF23 levels in the Saudi population and to correlate it with its clinical manifestations in order to ascertain its role in the pathogenesis of CKD patients. Methods The FGF23 level in the plasma samples was determined using ELISA in a diverse cohort of 89 cases with stage 3-5 CKD and 100 healthy subjects. The plasma FGF23 level was correlated with other biochemical parameters. Results The results revealed that the FGF23 level was markedly elevated among CKD patients compared to the control group, and a significant inverse correlation was observed between the FGF23 level and glomerular filtration rate. FGF23 elevation was approximately 40-fold among stage 5 patients compared to the control, while the elevation of phosphate, parathyroid hormone (PTH) and alkaline phosphatase was 2-, 3- and 8-fold in this stage, respectively. Conclusion Elevated FGF23 levels may have a strong correlation with the disease pathogenesis. In addition, FGF23 might be a future therapeutic target to intervene against the progression of CKD as well as to increase patient survivability. PMID:27194998

  7. Low serum carotenoid concentrations and carotenoid interactions predict mortality in US adults: The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III)

    PubMed Central

    Shardell, Michelle D; Alley, Dawn E; Hicks, Gregory E; El-Kamary, Samer S; Miller, Ram R; Semba, Richard D; Ferrucci, Luigi

    2011-01-01

    Evidence regarding the health benefits of carotenoids is controversial. Effects of serum carotenoids and their interactions on mortality have not been examined in a representative sample of US adults. The objective was to examine whether serum carotenoid concentrations predict mortality among US adults. The study consisted of adults aged ≥20 years enrolled in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III, 1988–1994, with measured serum carotenoids and mortality follow-up through 2006 (N=13,293). Outcomes were all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer mortality. In adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, participants in the lowest total carotenoid quartile (<1.01µmol/L) had significantly higher all-cause mortality (mortality rate ratio=1.38; 95% confidence interval:1.15—1.65; P=0.005) than those in the highest total carotenoid quartile (>1.75µmol/L). For alpha-carotene, the highest quartile (>0.11µmol/L) had the lowest all-cause mortality rates (P<0.001). For lycopene, the middle two quartiles (0.29–0.58µmol/L) had the lowest all-cause mortality rates (P=0.047). Analyses with continuous carotenoids confirmed associations of serum total carotenoids, alpha-carotene, and lycopene with all-cause mortality (P<0.001). In a random survival forest analysis, very low lycopene was the carotenoid most strongly predictive of all-cause mortality, followed by very low total carotenoids. Alpha-carotene/beta-cryptoxanthin, alpha-carotene/lutein+zeaxanthin and lycopene/lutein+zeaxanthin interactions were significantly related to all-cause mortality (P<0.05). Low alpha-carotene was the only carotenoid associated with CVD mortality (P=0.002). No carotenoids were significantly associated with cancer mortality. Very low serum total carotenoid, alpha-carotene, and lycopene concentrations may be risk factors for mortality, but carotenoids show interaction effects on mortality. Interventions of balanced carotenoid combinations are needed for

  8. Host, Pathogen, and Environmental Characteristics Predict White-Nose Syndrome Mortality in Captive Little Brown Myotis (Myotis lucifugus)

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Joseph S.; Reeder, DeeAnn M.; McMichael, James W.; Meierhofer, Melissa B.; Stern, Daniel W. F.; Lumadue, Shayne S.; Sigler, Lauren E.; Winters, Harrison D.; Vodzak, Megan E.; Kurta, Allen; Kath, Joseph A.; Field, Kenneth A.

    2014-01-01

    An estimated 5.7 million or more bats died in North America between 2006 and 2012 due to infection with the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd) that causes white-nose syndrome (WNS) during hibernation. The behavioral and physiological changes associated with hibernation leave bats vulnerable to WNS, but the persistence of bats within the contaminated regions of North America suggests that survival might vary predictably among individuals or in relation to environmental conditions. To investigate variables influencing WNS mortality, we conducted a captive study of 147 little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus) inoculated with 0, 500, 5 000, 50 000, or 500 000 Pd conidia and hibernated for five months at either 4 or 10°C. We found that female bats were significantly more likely to survive hibernation, as were bats hibernated at 4°C, and bats with greater body condition at the start of hibernation. Although all bats inoculated with Pd exhibited shorter torpor bouts compared to controls, a characteristic of WNS, only bats inoculated with 500 conidia had significantly lower survival odds compared to controls. These data show that host and environmental characteristics are significant predictors of WNS mortality, and that exposure to up to 500 conidia is sufficient to cause a fatal infection. These results also illustrate a need to quantify dynamics of Pd exposure in free-ranging bats, as dynamics of WNS produced in captive studies inoculating bats with several hundred thousand conidia may differ from those in the wild. PMID:25409028

  9. Host, pathogen, and environmental characteristics predict white-nose syndrome mortality in captive little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus).

    PubMed

    Johnson, Joseph S; Reeder, DeeAnn M; McMichael, James W; Meierhofer, Melissa B; Stern, Daniel W F; Lumadue, Shayne S; Sigler, Lauren E; Winters, Harrison D; Vodzak, Megan E; Kurta, Allen; Kath, Joseph A; Field, Kenneth A

    2014-01-01

    An estimated 5.7 million or more bats died in North America between 2006 and 2012 due to infection with the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd) that causes white-nose syndrome (WNS) during hibernation. The behavioral and physiological changes associated with hibernation leave bats vulnerable to WNS, but the persistence of bats within the contaminated regions of North America suggests that survival might vary predictably among individuals or in relation to environmental conditions. To investigate variables influencing WNS mortality, we conducted a captive study of 147 little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus) inoculated with 0, 500, 5000, 50,000, or 500,000 Pd conidia and hibernated for five months at either 4 or 10°C. We found that female bats were significantly more likely to survive hibernation, as were bats hibernated at 4°C, and bats with greater body condition at the start of hibernation. Although all bats inoculated with Pd exhibited shorter torpor bouts compared to controls, a characteristic of WNS, only bats inoculated with 500 conidia had significantly lower survival odds compared to controls. These data show that host and environmental characteristics are significant predictors of WNS mortality, and that exposure to up to 500 conidia is sufficient to cause a fatal infection. These results also illustrate a need to quantify dynamics of Pd exposure in free-ranging bats, as dynamics of WNS produced in captive studies inoculating bats with several hundred thousand conidia may differ from those in the wild. PMID:25409028

  10. Simultaneous Prediction of New Morbidity, Mortality, and Survival without New Morbidity from Pediatric Intensive Care: A New Paradigm for Outcomes Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Pollack, Murray M.; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Berger, John T.; Clark, Amy E.; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A.; Carcillo, Joseph; Wessel, David L.; Moler, Frank; Dalton, Heidi; Newth, Christopher J. L.; Shanley, Thomas; Harrison, Rick E.; Doctor, Allan; Jenkins, Tammara L.; Tamburro, Robert; Dean, J. Michael

    2015-01-01

    Objective Assessments of care including quality assessments adjusted for physiological status should include the development of new morbidities as well as mortalities. We hypothesized that morbidity, like mortality, is associated with physiological dysfunction and could be predicted simultaneously with mortality. Design Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011 to April 7, 2013. Setting and Patients General and cardiac/cardiovascular pediatric intensive care units at 7 sites. Measurements and Main Results Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted morbidity rates (measured with the Functional Status Scale (FSS), and defined as an increase of ≥ 3 from pre-illness to hospital discharge) were 4.6% (site range 2.6% to 7.7%) and unadjusted mortality rates were 2.7% (site range 1.3% – 5.0%). Morbidity and mortality were significantly (p<0.001) associated with physiological instability (measured with the PRISM III score) in dichotomous (survival, death) and trichotomous (survival without new morbidity, survival with new morbidity, death) models without covariate adjustments. Morbidity risk increased with increasing PRISM III scores and then decreased at the highest PRISM III values as potential morbidities became mortalities. The trichotomous model with covariate adjustments included age, admission source, diagnostic factors, baseline FSS and the PRISM III score. The three-level goodness of fit test indicated satisfactory performance for the derivation and validation sets (p>0.20). Predictive ability assessed with the volume under the surface (VUS) was 0.50 ± 0.019 (derivation) and 0.50 ± 0.034 (validation) (versus chance performance = 0.17). Site-level standardized morbidity ratios were more variable than standardized mortality ratios. Conclusions New morbidities were associated with physiological status and can be modeled simultaneously with mortality. Trichotomous outcome models including both morbidity and mortality based on physiological status are suitable

  11. Clinical characteristics and mortality risk prediction in children with acute kidney injury

    PubMed Central

    Sadeghi-Bojd, Simin; Noori, Noor Mohammad; Mohammadi, Mehdi; Teimouri, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is characterized by a reversible increase in the blood concentration of creatinine and nitrogenous waste products and by the inability of the kidney to regulate fluid and electrolyte homeostasis appropriately. Objective: AKI is a serious condition in critically ill patients. The aim of the study was to determine incidence rate, identify risk factors, and describe the clinical outcome of AKI in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU). Materials and Methods: This prospective observational study was conducted in the PICU of a hospital in the South-east Area of Iran (Zahedan City), to study the clinico-etiological profile of AKI (defined according to the AKI network criteria). Over a period of 20 months from April 2012 to December 2014, 303 children were included in the study. Both the groups of patients, those who developed AKI and those who did not develop AKI, were then followed during the course of their hospital stay. Results: There were 303 cases included in the study, with the incidence rate of AKI of 14.9% in PICU. The most common PICU admission diagnoses in AKI were neurologic 85 (%28.05), followed by heart diseases 52 (17.18%) and 31 (10.23%) for respiratory diseases. AKI was 43.5 and 5.4 times more prevalent in renal and endocrine patients compared to those with heart disease respectively. The mortality rate was estimated to be higher in patients with AKI compared to their counterparts (40% vs. 17.8%). Chance of death increased in patients with AKI (odds ratio = 3.04). Conclusion: AKI is a serious problem, but its true incidence is unknown. Understanding the epidemiology of AKI by using of standard definition help us to find high-risk children that are the first step to improve outcomes. The future multiple-center study may benefit by better identifying risk factors and early detection of AKI by using biomarkers novel to prevent the developing of AKI. PMID:26778883

  12. Activin A Predicts Left Ventricular Remodeling and Mortality in Patients with ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Jeng-Feng; Hsu, Shun-Yi; Teng, Ming-Sheng; Wu, Semon; Hsieh, Chien-An; Jang, Shih-Jung; Liu, Chih-Jen; Huang, Hsuan-Li; Ko, Yu-Lin

    2016-01-01

    Background Activin A levels increase in a variety of heart diseases including ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The aim of this study is to investigate whether the level of activin A can be beneficial in predicting left ventricular remodeling, heart failure, and death in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Methods We enrolled 278 patients with STEMI who had their activin A levels measured on day 2 of hospitalization. Echocardiographic studies were performed at baseline and were repeated 6 months later. Thereafter, the clinical events of these patients were followed for a maximum of 3 years, including all-cause death and readmission for heart failure. Results During hospitalization, higher activin A level was associated with higher triglyceride level, lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and lower left ventricular end diastolic ventricular volume index (LVEDVI) in multivariable linear regression model. During follow-up, patients with activin A levels > 129 pg/ml had significantly lower LVEF, and higher LVEDVI at 6 months. Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that activin A level > 129 pg/ml was a predictor of all-cause death (p = 0.022), but not a predictor of heart failure (p = 0.767). Conclusions Activin A level > 129 pg/ml predicts worse left ventricular remodeling and all-cause death in STEMI. PMID:27471355

  13. Toward a predictive theory of risk effects: hypotheses for prey attributes and compensatory mortality.

    PubMed

    Creel, Scott

    2011-12-01

    Risk effects, or the costs of antipredator behavior, can comprise a large proportion of the total effect of predators on their prey. While empirical studies are accumulating to demonstrate the importance of risk effects, there is no general theory that predicts the relative importance of risk effects and direct predation. Working toward this general theory, it has been shown that functional traits of predators (e.g., hunting modes) help to predict the importance of risk effects for ecosystem function. Here, I note that attributes of the predator, the prey, and the environment are all important in determining the strength of antipredator responses, and I develop hypotheses for the ways that prey functional traits might influence the magnitude of risk effects. In particular, I consider the following attributes of prey: group size and dilution of direct predation risk, the degree of foraging specialization, body mass, and the degree to which direct predation is additive vs. compensatory. Strong tests of these hypotheses will require continued development of methods to identify and quantify the fitness costs of antipredator responses in wild populations.

  14. Validation of CRASH Model in Prediction of 14-day Mortality and 6-month Unfavorable Outcome of Head Trauma Patients

    PubMed Central

    Hashemi, Behrooz; Amanat, Mahnaz; Baratloo, Alireza; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Mehdi; Rahmati, Farhad; Motamedi, Maryam; Safari, Saeed

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: To date, many prognostic models have been proposed to predict the outcome of patients with traumatic brain injuries. External validation of these models in different populations is of great importance for their generalization. The present study was designed, aiming to determine the value of CRASH prognostic model in prediction of 14-day mortality (14-DM) and 6-month unfavorable outcome (6-MUO) of patients with traumatic brain injury. Methods: In the present prospective diagnostic test study, calibration and discrimination of CRASH model were evaluated in head trauma patients referred to the emergency department. Variables required for calculating CRASH expected risks (ER), and observed 14-DM and 6-MUO were gathered. Then ER of 14-DM and 6-MUO were calculated. The patients were followed for 6 months and their 14-DM and 6-MUO were recorded. Finally, the correlation of CRASH ER and the observed outcome of the patients was evaluated. The data were analyzed using STATA version 11.0. Results: In this study, 323 patients with the mean age of 34.0 ± 19.4 years were evaluated (87.3% male). Calibration of the basic and CT models in prediction of 14-day and 6-month outcome were in the desirable range (P < 0.05). Area under the curve in the basic model for prediction of 14-DM and 6-MUO were 0.92 (95% CI: 0.89-0.96) and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.90-0.95), respectively. In addition, area under the curve in the CT model for prediction of 14-DM and 6-MUO were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.91-0.97) and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.91-0.96), respectively. There was no significant difference between the discriminations of the two models in prediction of 14-DM (p = 0.11) and 6-MUO (p = 0.1). Conclusion: The results of the present study showed that CRASH prediction model has proper discrimination and calibration in predicting 14-DM and 6-MUO of head trauma patients. Since there was no difference between the values of the basic and CT models, using the basic model is recommended to simplify the risk

  15. Fear on the move: predator hunting mode predicts variation in prey mortality and plasticity in prey spatial response.

    PubMed

    Miller, Jennifer R B; Ament, Judith M; Schmitz, Oswald J

    2014-01-01

    Ecologists have long searched for a framework of a priori species traits to help predict predator-prey interactions in food webs. Empirical evidence has shown that predator hunting mode and predator and prey habitat domain are useful traits for explaining predator-prey interactions. Yet, individual experiments have yet to replicate predator hunting mode, calling into question whether predator impacts can be attributed to hunting mode or merely species identity. We tested the effects of spider predators with sit-and-wait, sit-and-pursue and active hunting modes on grasshopper habitat domain, activity and mortality in a grassland system. We replicated hunting mode by testing two spider predator species of each hunting mode on the same grasshopper prey species. We observed grasshoppers with and without each spider species in behavioural cages and measured their mortality rates, movements and habitat domains. We likewise measured the movements and habitat domains of spiders to characterize hunting modes. We found that predator hunting mode explained grasshopper mortality and spider and grasshopper movement activity and habitat domain size. Sit-and-wait spider predators covered small distances over a narrow domain space and killed fewer grasshoppers than sit-and-pursue and active predators, which ranged farther distances across broader domains and killed more grasshoppers, respectively. Prey adjusted their activity levels and horizontal habitat domains in response to predator presence and hunting mode: sedentary sit-and-wait predators with narrow domains caused grasshoppers to reduce activity in the same-sized domain space; more mobile sit-and-pursue predators with broader domains caused prey to reduce their activity within a contracted horizontal (but not vertical) domain space; and highly mobile active spiders led grasshoppers to increase their activity across the same domain area. All predators impacted prey activity, and sit-and-pursue predators generated strong

  16. Microbiological Characteristics and Predictive Factors for Mortality in Pleural Infection: A Single-Center Cohort Study in Korea

    PubMed Central

    Park, Cheol-Kyu; Oh, Hyoung-Joo; Choi, Ha-Young; Shin, Hong-Joon; Lim, Jung Hwan; Oh, In-Jae; Kim, Yu-Il; Lim, Sung-Chul; Kim, Young-Chul; Kwon, Yong-Soo

    2016-01-01

    Background Identification and understanding of the pathogens responsible for pleural infection is critical for appropriate antibiotic treatment. This study sought to determine the microbiological characteristics of pleural infection and to identify potential predictive factors associated with mortality. Methods In this retrospective study, we analyzed patient data from 421 cases of parapneumonic effusion. A total of 184 microorganisms were isolated from 164 patients, using two culture systems: a standard method and a method using pairs of aerobic and anaerobic blood culture bottles. Results The most frequently isolated microorganisms were streptococci (31.5%), followed by staphylococci (23.4%), gram-negative bacteria (18.5%) and anaerobes (10.3%). Streptococci were the main microorganisms found in standard culture (41.9%) and community-acquired infections (52.2%), and were susceptible to all antimicrobial agents in drug sensitivity testing. Staphylococci were the most frequently isolated pathogens in blood cultures (30.8%) and hospital-acquired infections (38.3%), and were primarily multidrug-resistant (61.8%). In multivariate analysis, the following were significant predictive factors for 30-day mortality among the total population: CURB-65 ≥ 2 (aOR 5.549, 95% CI 2.296–13.407, p<0.001), structural lung disease (aOR 2.708, 95% CI 1.346–5.379, p = 0.004), PSI risk class IV-V (aOR 4.714, 95% CI 1.530–14.524, p = 0.007), no use of intrapleural fibrinolytics (aOR 3.062, 95% CI 1.102–8.511, p = 0.014), hospital-acquired infection (aOR 2.205, 95% CI 1.165–4.172, p = 0.015), age (aOR 0.964, 95% CI 0.935–0.994, p = 0.018), and SOFA score ≥2 (aOR 2.361, 95% CI 1.134–4.916, p = 0.022). Conclusion In this study, common pathogens causing pleural infection were comparable to previous studies, and consisted of streptococci, staphylococci, and anaerobes. CURB-65 ≥2, structural lung disease, PSI risk class IV-V, no use of intrapleural fibrinolytics, hospital

  17. Predicting the mortality from asbestos-related diseases based on the amount of asbestos used and the effects of slate buildings in Korea.

    PubMed

    Kim, Su-Young; Kim, Young-Chan; Kim, Yongku; Hong, Won-Hwa

    2016-01-15

    Asbestos has been used since ancient times, owing to its heat-resistant, rot-proof, and insulating qualities, and its usage rapidly increased after the industrial revolution. In Korea, all slates were previously manufactured in a mixture of about 90% cement and 10% chrysotile (white asbestos). This study used a Generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model after creating databases of the mortality from asbestos-related diseases and of the amount of asbestos used in Korea as a means to predict the future mortality of asbestos-related diseases and mesothelioma in Korea. Moreover, to predict the future mortality according to the effects of slate buildings, a comparative analysis based on the result of the GPR model was conducted after creating databases of the amount of asbestos used in Korea and of the amount of asbestos used in making slates. We predicted the mortality from asbestos-related diseases by year, from 2014 to 2036, according to the amount of asbestos used. As a result, it was predicted that a total of 1942 people (maximum, 3476) will die by 2036. Moreover, based on the comparative analysis according to the influence index, it was predicted that a maximum of 555 people will die from asbestos-related diseases by 2031 as a result of the effects of asbestos-containing slate buildings, and the mortality was predicted to peak in 2021, with 53 cases. Although mesothelioma and pulmonary asbestosis were considered as asbestos-related diseases, these are not the only two diseases caused by asbestos. However the results of this study are highly important and relevant, as, for the first time in Korea, the future mortality from asbestos-related diseases was predicted. These findings are expected to contribute greatly to the Korean government's policies related to the compensation for asbestos victims. PMID:26513124

  18. Predicting the mortality from asbestos-related diseases based on the amount of asbestos used and the effects of slate buildings in Korea.

    PubMed

    Kim, Su-Young; Kim, Young-Chan; Kim, Yongku; Hong, Won-Hwa

    2016-01-15

    Asbestos has been used since ancient times, owing to its heat-resistant, rot-proof, and insulating qualities, and its usage rapidly increased after the industrial revolution. In Korea, all slates were previously manufactured in a mixture of about 90% cement and 10% chrysotile (white asbestos). This study used a Generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model after creating databases of the mortality from asbestos-related diseases and of the amount of asbestos used in Korea as a means to predict the future mortality of asbestos-related diseases and mesothelioma in Korea. Moreover, to predict the future mortality according to the effects of slate buildings, a comparative analysis based on the result of the GPR model was conducted after creating databases of the amount of asbestos used in Korea and of the amount of asbestos used in making slates. We predicted the mortality from asbestos-related diseases by year, from 2014 to 2036, according to the amount of asbestos used. As a result, it was predicted that a total of 1942 people (maximum, 3476) will die by 2036. Moreover, based on the comparative analysis according to the influence index, it was predicted that a maximum of 555 people will die from asbestos-related diseases by 2031 as a result of the effects of asbestos-containing slate buildings, and the mortality was predicted to peak in 2021, with 53 cases. Although mesothelioma and pulmonary asbestosis were considered as asbestos-related diseases, these are not the only two diseases caused by asbestos. However the results of this study are highly important and relevant, as, for the first time in Korea, the future mortality from asbestos-related diseases was predicted. These findings are expected to contribute greatly to the Korean government's policies related to the compensation for asbestos victims.

  19. Evaluation of a microwave resonator for predicting grain moisture independent of bulk density

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This work evaluated the ability of a planar whispering mode resonator to predict moisture considering moisture and densities expected in an on-harvester application. A calibration model was developed to accurately predict moisture over the moisture, density and temperature ranges evaluated. This mod...

  20. Predicting pneumonia mortality using CURB-65, PSI, and patient characteristics in patients presenting to the emergency department of a comprehensive cancer center.

    PubMed

    Gonzalez, Carmen; Johnson, Tami; Rolston, Kenneth; Merriman, Kelly; Warneke, Carla; Evans, Scott

    2014-08-01

    The prognostic accuracy of the CURB-65 criteria and pneumonia severity index (PSI) in immunocompromised cancer patients with pneumonia is unknown. We sought to determine whether CURB-65 and PSI predict 28-day mortality in cancer patients with pneumonia, and identify other factors that predispose cancer patients with pneumonia to a high mortality risk. We assessed sensitivities, specificities, predictive values, and areas under the receiver operating curve area under the curve (AUC) of the CURB-65 and PSI in predicting the 28-day mortality of cancer patients presenting to our institution's emergency department with pneumonia. We used the DeLong and Clarke-Pearson approach to determine whether the addition of other risk factors improved the scales' performances. The overall and pneumonia-related 28-day mortality rates were 20.2% (n = 44) and 17.4% (n = 38), respectively. In predicting 28-day mortality, the CURB-65 score had sensitivity of 45% and specificity of 81%, and the PSI score had sensitivity of 82% and specificity of 34%. The CURB-65 and PSI discriminated poorly between fatal and nonfatal pneumonia cases (AUCs, 0.664 and 0.658, respectively; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-0.75 for each). The addition of radiation therapy (RT) within 4 weeks and stem cell transplant (SCT) significantly improved the AUCs of the CURB-65 (0.75; 95% CI, 0.67-0.83) and PSI (0.73; 95% CI, 0.65-0.82). Inadequate performances of CURB-65 and PSI demonstrate that a tool for predicting pneumonia-related mortality in cancer patients and other immunocompromised populations is needed. Pneumonia patients who have undergone recent RT or (SCT) are at a high risk of dying from pneumonia and require special consideration when assessing pneumonia-related mortality risk.

  1. T-Cell Subsets Predict Mortality in Malnourished Zambian Adults Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Chisenga, Caroline C.; Filteau, Suzanne; Siame, Joshua; Chisenga, Molly; Prendergast, Andrew J.; Kelly, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Objective To estimate the prognostic value of T-cell subsets in Zambian patients initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART), and to assess the impact of a nutritional intervention on T-cell subsets. Methods This was a sub-study of a randomised clinical trial of a nutritional intervention for malnourished adults initiating ART. Participants in a randomised controlled trial (NUSTART trial) were enrolled between April and December 2012. Participants received lipid-based nutritional supplement either with or without additional vitamins and minerals. Immunophenotyping was undertaken at baseline and, in survivors, after 12 weeks of ART to characterize T-cell subsets using the markers CD3, CD4, CD8, CD45RA, CCR7, CD28, CD57, CD31, α4β7, Ki67, CD25 and HLA-DR. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis was performed, and responses to treatment were analysed using the Wicoxon rank-sum test. Results Among 181 adults, 36 (20%) died by 12 weeks after starting ART. In univariate analysis, patients who died had fewer proliferating, more naïve and fewer gut homing CD4+ T-cells compared to survivors; and more senescent and fewer proliferating CD8+ T-cells. In a multivariate Cox regression model high naïve CD4+, low proliferating CD4+, high senescent CD8+ and low proliferating CD8+ subsets were independently associated with increased risk of death. Recent CD4+ thymic emigrants increased less between recruitment and 12 weeks of ART in the intervention group compared to the control group. Conclusions Specific CD4+ T-cell subsets are of considerable prognostic significance for patients initiating ART in Zambia, but only thymic output responded to this nutritional intervention. PMID:26083409

  2. High day 28 ST2 levels predict for acute graft-versus-host disease and transplant-related mortality after cord blood transplantation.

    PubMed

    Ponce, Doris M; Hilden, Patrick; Mumaw, Christen; Devlin, Sean M; Lubin, Marissa; Giralt, Sergio; Goldberg, Jenna D; Hanash, Alan; Hsu, Katharine; Jenq, Robert; Perales, Miguel-Angel; Sauter, Craig; van den Brink, Marcel R M; Young, James W; Brentjens, Renier; Kernan, Nancy A; Prockop, Susan E; O'Reilly, Richard J; Scaradavou, Andromachi; Paczesny, Sophie; Barker, Juliet N

    2015-01-01

    While cord blood transplantation (CBT) is an effective therapy for hematologic malignancies, acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) is a leading cause of transplant-related mortality (TRM). We investigated if biomarkers could predict aGVHD and TRM after day 28 in CBT recipients. Day 28 samples from 113 CBT patients were analyzed. Suppressor of tumorigenicity 2 (ST2) was the only biomarker associated with grades II-IV and III-IV aGVHD and TRM. Day 180 grade III-IV aGVHD in patients with high ST2 levels was 30% (95% confidence interval [CI], 18-43) vs 13% (95% CI, 5-23) in patients with low levels (P = .024). The adverse effect of elevated ST2 was independent of HLA match. Moreover, high day 28 ST2 levels were associated with increased TRM with day 180 estimates of 23% (95% CI, 13-35) vs 5% (95% CI, 1-13) if levels were low (P = .001). GVHD was the most common cause of death in high ST2 patients. High concentrations of tumor necrosis factor receptor-1, interleukin-8, and regenerating islet-derived protein 3-α were also associated with TRM. Our results are consistent with those of adult donor allografts and warrant further prospective evaluation to facilitate future therapeutic intervention to ameliorate severe aGVHD and further improve survival after CBT.

  3. Stochastic Soil Moisture Balance Modelling for Predicting Tree Mortality: A Case Study in Oilsands Reclamation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, P. A.; Carey, S. K.

    2009-05-01

    Reclamation of oilsand sites north of Fort McMurray, AB, involves restoring the ecosystem to a functional boreal forest, where operators remain liable for environmental impacts until such time that the area of disturbance is reclaimed. Numerous studies have examined the variability of fluxes of energy and water vapour during the growing season that results from temporal variations in radiant input, soil and biophysical properties, and moisture conditions. However, it is uncertain to what degree reclamation strategies have impacted carbon, water, energy, and nutrient exchanges. Specifically, as a result of the constructed nature of the soil cover, uncertainty exists regarding the long-term viability of reclaimed forests due to the interaction of available soil moisture and increasing evaporative demand as the trees mature. A site specific probabilistic assessment of soil moisture and plant stress is derived for a 16 year old jack pine stand planted on reclamation cover in northern Alberta (RJP92). Results are obtained using a process-based quantitative model which accounts for the stochastic nature of rainfall along with measured soil and biophysical properties. The model is parameterized and tested against field data for the 2007 and 2008 growing season respectively. Functional relations between soil moisture tension, bulk surface resistance, and NEE along with published values serve to link the probability distribution of soil moisture to dynamic plant water stress. Based on the soil and biophysical parameterization for RJP92, the long term viability of the jack pine stand is assessed. This is accomplished by simulating the inter-annual variability of the rainfall parameters which are modelled as independent gamma-distributed random variables, where climate is considered intransient. Results indicate that, given the range of climate variability over the past century, the probability of stand failure is minimal assuming there are no changes in evaporative controls

  4. Pre-existing Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Is an Independent Risk Factor for Mortality and Progression in Patients With Renal Cell Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Vavallo, Antonio; Simone, Simona; Lucarelli, Giuseppe; Rutigliano, Monica; Galleggiante, Vanessa; Grandaliano, Giuseppe; Gesualdo, Loreto; Campagna, Marcello; Cariello, Marica; Ranieri, Elena; Pertosa, Giovanni; Lastilla, Gaetano; Selvaggi, Francesco Paolo; Ditonno, Pasquale; Battaglia, Michele

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Malignancies are one of the main causes of mortality in diabetic patients; however, to date, very limited data have been reported on the specific influence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on the survival of patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC). In the present long-term retrospective study, we investigated whether T2DM may influence the overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with surgically treated RCC. Medical records of 924 patients treated by radical or partial nephrectomy for sporadic, unilateral RCC were reviewed. Patients with type-1 DM and with T2 DM receiving insulin treatment were excluded. Survival estimates were calculated according to the Kaplan–Meier method and compared with the log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the Cox regression model. Of the 924 RCC patients, 152 (16.5%) had T2DM. Mean follow-up was 68.5 months. Mean OS was 41.3 and 96.3 months in T2DM and non-T2DM patients, respectively (P < 0.0001). The estimated CSS rates at 1, 3, and 5 years in T2DM versus non-T2DM patients were 63.4% versus 76.7%, 30.4% versus 56.6%, and 16.3% versus 48.6%, respectively (P = 0.001). Mean PFS was significantly lower (31.5 vs 96.3 months; P < 0.0001) in the T2DM group. At multivariate analysis, T2DM was an independent adverse prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.44; 95% confidence interval [CI]:2.40–4.92), CSS (HR = 6.39; 95% CI: 3.78–10.79), and PFS (HR = 4.71; 95% CI: 3.11–7.15). In conclusion, our findings suggest that patients with RCC and pre-existing T2DM have a shorter OS, increased risk of recurrence, and higher risk for kidney cancer mortality than those without diabetes. PMID:25501064

  5. Which Biomarker is the Best for Predicting Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: NT-ProBNP, Cardiac TnT, or hsCRP?

    PubMed Central

    Oh, Hyung Jung; Lee, Mi Jung; Kwon, Young Eun; Park, Kyoung Sook; Park, Jung Tak; Han, Seung Hyeok; Yoo, Tae-Hyun; Kim, Yong-Lim; Kim, Yon Su; Yang, Chul Woo; Kim, Nam-Ho; Kang, Shin-Wook

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Although numerous previous studies have explored various biomarkers for their ability to predict mortality in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients, these studies have been limited by retrospective analyses, mostly prevalent dialysis patients, and the measurement of only 1 or 2 biomarkers. This prospective study was aimed to evaluate the association between 3 biomarkers and mortality in incident 335 ESRD patients starting continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) in Korea. According to the baseline NT-proBNP, cTnT, and hsCRP levels, the patients were stratified into tertiles, and cardiovascular (CV) and all-cause mortalities were compared. Additionally, time-dependent ROC curves were constructed, and the net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) of the models with various biomarkers were calculated. We found the upper tertile of NT-proBNP was significantly associated with increased risk of both CV and all-cause mortalities. However, the upper tertile of hsCRP was significantly related only to the high risk of all-cause mortality even after adjustment for age, sex, and white blood cell counts. Moreover, NT-proBNP had the highest predictive power for CV mortality, whereas hsCRP was the best prognostic marker for all-cause mortality among these biomarkers. In conclusions, NT-proBNP is a more significant prognostic factor for CV mortality than cTnT and hsCRP, whereas hsCRP is a more significant predictor than NT-proBNP and cTnT for all-cause mortality in incident peritoneal dialysis patients. PMID:26554763

  6. Independent prediction of naphthalene transport and biodegradation in soil with a mathematical model

    SciTech Connect

    Ahn, I.S.; Ghiorse, W.C.; Lion, L.W.; Shuler, M.L.

    1999-10-05

    Experiments were performed to test the ability of a mathematical model to predict naphthalene transport and biodegradation. Pseudomonas putida G7, a model bacterial strain capable of degrading naphthalene, was added to a column packed with the soil that had been pre-equilibrated with naphthalene. Model prediction for transport and degradation were based on predetermined parameters that described naphthalene desorption kinetics and the utilization of naphthalene by the test bacterium. However, initial prediction for naphthalene biodegradation was high, and the formation of cell aggregates is advances as a plausible explanation. Access of substrate to cells in the interior of an aggregate would be restricted. When the numerical simulation was conducted with a factor to account for cell aggregation, it successfully described the experimental data. Thus, with a single adjustable parameter (an average effectiveness factor), the model predicted macroscopic responses of naphthalene in soil-columns where naphthalene was subject to transport and biodegradation.

  7. Pretransplant pulmonary function tests predict risk of mortality following fractionated total body irradiation and allogeneic peripheral blood stem cell transplant

    SciTech Connect

    Singh, Anurag K. . E-mail: singan@mail.nih.gov; Karimpour, Shervin E.; Savani, Bipin N.; Guion, Peter M.S.; Hope, Andrew J.; Mansueti, John R.; Ning, Holly; Altemus, Rosemary M. Ph.D.; Wu, Colin O.; Barrett, A. John

    2006-10-01

    Purpose: To determine the value of pulmonary function tests (PFTs) done before peripheral blood stem cell transplant (PBSCT) in predicting mortality after total body irradiation (TBI) performed with or without dose reduction to the lung. Methods and Materials: From 1997 to 2004, 146 consecutive patients with hematologic malignancies received fractionated TBI before PBSCT. With regimen A (n = 85), patients were treated without lung dose reduction to 13.6 gray (Gy). In regimen B (n = 35), total body dose was decreased to 12 Gy (1.5 Gy twice per day for 4 days) and lung dose was limited to 9 Gy by use of lung shielding. In regimen C (n = 26), lung dose was reduced to 6 Gy. All patients received PFTs before treatment, 90 days after treatment, and annually. Results: Median follow-up was 44 months (range, 12-90 months). Sixty-one patients had combined ventilation/diffusion capacity deficits defined as both a forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV{sub 1}) and a diffusion capacity of carbon dioxide (DLCO) <100% predicted. In this group, there was a 20% improvement in one-year overall survival with lung dose reduction (70 vs. 50%, log-rank test p = 0.042). Conclusion: Among those with combined ventilation/diffusion capacity deficits, lung dose reduction during TBI significantly improved survival.

  8. Predicting the activity coefficients of free-solvent for concentrated globular protein solutions using independently determined physical parameters.

    PubMed

    McBride, Devin W; Rodgers, Victor G J

    2013-01-01

    The activity coefficient is largely considered an empirical parameter that was traditionally introduced to correct the non-ideality observed in thermodynamic systems such as osmotic pressure. Here, the activity coefficient of free-solvent is related to physically realistic parameters and a mathematical expression is developed to directly predict the activity coefficients of free-solvent, for aqueous protein solutions up to near-saturation concentrations. The model is based on the free-solvent model, which has previously been shown to provide excellent prediction of the osmotic pressure of concentrated and crowded globular proteins in aqueous solutions up to near-saturation concentrations. Thus, this model uses only the independently determined, physically realizable quantities: mole fraction, solvent accessible surface area, and ion binding, in its prediction. Predictions are presented for the activity coefficients of free-solvent for near-saturated protein solutions containing either bovine serum albumin or hemoglobin. As a verification step, the predictability of the model for the activity coefficient of sucrose solutions was evaluated. The predicted activity coefficients of free-solvent are compared to the calculated activity coefficients of free-solvent based on osmotic pressure data. It is observed that the predicted activity coefficients are increasingly dependent on the solute-solvent parameters as the protein concentration increases to near-saturation concentrations.

  9. GRACE Score among Six Risk Scoring Systems (CADILLAC, PAMI, TIMI, Dynamic TIMI, Zwolle) Demonstrated the Best Predictive Value for Prediction of Long-Term Mortality in Patients with ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Littnerova, Simona; Kala, Petr; Jarkovsky, Jiri; Kubkova, Lenka; Prymusova, Krystyna; Kubena, Petr; Tesak, Martin; Toman, Ondrej; Poloczek, Martin; Spinar, Jindrich; Dusek, Ladislav; Parenica, Jiri

    2015-01-01

    Aim To compare the prognostic accuracy of six scoring models for up to three-year mortality and rates of hospitalisation due to acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in STEMI patients. Methods and Results A total of 593 patients treated with primary PCI were evaluated. Prospective follow-up of patients was ≥3 years. Thirty-day, one-year, two-year, and three-year mortality rates were 4.0%, 7.3%, 8.9%, and 10.6%, respectively. Six risk scores—the TIMI score and derived dynamic TIMI, CADILLAC, PAMI, Zwolle, and GRACE—showed a high predictive accuracy for six- and 12-month mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.73–0.85. The best predictive values for long-term mortality were obtained by GRACE. The next best-performing scores were CADILLAC, Zwolle, and Dynamic TIMI. All risk scores had a lower prediction accuracy for repeat hospitalisation due to ADHF, except Zwolle with the discriminatory capacity for hospitalisation up to two years (AUC, 0.80–0.83). Conclusions All tested models showed a high predictive value for the estimation of one-year mortality, but GRACE appears to be the most suitable for the prediction for a longer follow-up period. The tested models exhibited an ability to predict the risk of ADHF, especially the Zwolle model. PMID:25893501

  10. Predicting Prostate Cancer Mortality Among Men With Intermediate to High-Risk Disease and Multiple Unfavorable Risk Factors

    SciTech Connect

    Nguyen, Paul L. Chen Minghui; Catalona, William J.; Moul, Judd W.; Sun, Leon; D'Amico, Anthony V.

    2009-03-01

    Purpose: To determine whether the number of unfavorable risk factors could be used to predict the risk of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) among men with intermediate- to high-risk prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: We studied 1,063 men who underwent radical prostatectomy (n = 559), external beam radiotherapy (n = 288), or radiotherapy plus androgen suppression therapy (n = 116) for prostate cancer between 1965 and 2002. Fine and Gray's regression analysis was used to determine whether an increasing number of unfavorable risk factors (prostate-specific antigen level >10 ng/mL, Gleason score of {>=}7, clinical Stage T2b or greater, or pretreatment prostate-specific antigen velocity >2.0 ng/mL/y) was associated with the interval to PCSM and all-cause mortality. Results: Median follow-up was 5.6 years. Compared with those with one risk factor, the adjusted hazard ratio for PCSM was 2.3 (95% confidence interval 1.1-4.8; p = 0.03) for two risk factors, 5.4 (95% confidence interval 2.7-10.7; p < 0.0001) for three risk factors, and 13.6 (95% confidence interval 6.3-29.2; p < 0.0001) for all four risk factors. The 5-year cumulative incidence of PCSM was 2.4% for one factor, 2.4% for two factors, 7.0% for three factors, and 14.7% for all four factors. Prostate cancer deaths as a proportion of all deaths was 19% for one factor, 33% for two factors, 53% for three factors, and 80% for four factors. Conclusion: The number of unfavorable risk factors was significantly associated with PCSM. Prostate cancer was the major cause of death in men with at least three risk factors. Therefore, these men should be considered for clinical trials designed to assess whether survival is prolonged with the addition of novel agents to current standards of practice.

  11. Obstructive sleep apnea predicts risk of metabolic syndrome independently of obesity: a meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Qian, Yingjun; Xu, Huajun; Wang, Yuyu; Yi, Hongliang; Yin, Shankai

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been suggested to be associated with a high risk of metabolic syndrome (MS). However, results on whether the association between OSA and risk of MS is independent of obesity, and the effect of nocturnal intermittent hypoxia (IH) on MS, are conflicting. Our purpose was to estimate the magnitude of the independent association between OSA and risk of MS and further explore whether nocturnal IH in OSA plays a role in MS risk. Material and methods The PubMed and EMBASE databases were systematically searched (until January 21, 2015) for available observational evidence. Unadjusted and body mass index (BMI)-adjusted pooled odds ratios (ORs) for MS in OSA or higher nocturnal IH were calculated using fixed or random models. Tests of homogeneity, publication bias, and robustness of the results were performed. Results A total of 13 independent studies (involving 857 participants in 3 case-control studies and 7077 participants in 10 cross-sectional studies) were included. The OSA was significantly associated with an increased risk of MS in a meta-analysis of 10 studies (pooled OR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.31–2.26, p < 0.001), with a BMI-adjusted pooled OR of 1.97 (95% CI: 1.34–2.88, p < 0.001). Pooled results from 3 studies on the oxygen desaturation index (ODI) and MS risk (OR = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.73–2.22, p < 0.001) and 3 studies on the cumulative percentage of sleep time with SpO2 below 90% (CT90) and MS risk (OR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02–1.07, p < 0.001) were also significant. Conclusions Our findings demonstrated a significant association between OSA and increased MS risk independent of BMI, and further indicated a role of nocturnal IH in this association.

  12. Maternal phenotype, independent of family economic capital, predicts educational attainment in lowland nepalese children

    PubMed Central

    Devakumar, Delan; Wells, Jonathan C.K.; Saville, Naomi; Reid, Alice; Costello, Anthony; Manandhar, Dharma S; Osrin, David

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Factors acting before children are born or reach school‐going age may explain why some do not complete primary education. Many relevant factors relate to maternal phenotype, but few studies have tested for independent associations of maternal factors relative to those characterizing the family in general. Methods Using data from a longitudinal study of 838 children in Dhanusha, Nepal, we used logistic regression models to test whether indices of maternal somatic and educational capital, or family economic capital, were independently associated with children having had ≤2 versus 3+ years of schooling at a mean age of 8.5 years. We also tested whether maternal age, children's early growth, and urban/rural location mediated such associations. Results Children had a higher risk of completing less schooling if their mothers were short, thin, anemic, and uneducated. Independently, lower family material assets and land acreage also increased children's odds of less schooling. There was an indication of gender differences, with the risk of poor educational attainment in girls associated with low maternal somatic and educational capital, whereas in boys the relevant factors were low maternal education and family land ownership. Conclusions Our analysis demonstrates that, independent of broader indices of family capital such as land or material assets, children's educational attainment is associated with factors embodied in maternal phenotype. Both somatic and educational maternal capital appeared important. A composite index of maternal capital could provide a new measurable proxy, prior to school entry, for identifying children at risk of completing fewer years of schooling. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 28:687–698, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27135632

  13. Obstructive sleep apnea predicts risk of metabolic syndrome independently of obesity: a meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Qian, Yingjun; Xu, Huajun; Wang, Yuyu; Yi, Hongliang; Yin, Shankai

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been suggested to be associated with a high risk of metabolic syndrome (MS). However, results on whether the association between OSA and risk of MS is independent of obesity, and the effect of nocturnal intermittent hypoxia (IH) on MS, are conflicting. Our purpose was to estimate the magnitude of the independent association between OSA and risk of MS and further explore whether nocturnal IH in OSA plays a role in MS risk. Material and methods The PubMed and EMBASE databases were systematically searched (until January 21, 2015) for available observational evidence. Unadjusted and body mass index (BMI)-adjusted pooled odds ratios (ORs) for MS in OSA or higher nocturnal IH were calculated using fixed or random models. Tests of homogeneity, publication bias, and robustness of the results were performed. Results A total of 13 independent studies (involving 857 participants in 3 case-control studies and 7077 participants in 10 cross-sectional studies) were included. The OSA was significantly associated with an increased risk of MS in a meta-analysis of 10 studies (pooled OR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.31–2.26, p < 0.001), with a BMI-adjusted pooled OR of 1.97 (95% CI: 1.34–2.88, p < 0.001). Pooled results from 3 studies on the oxygen desaturation index (ODI) and MS risk (OR = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.73–2.22, p < 0.001) and 3 studies on the cumulative percentage of sleep time with SpO2 below 90% (CT90) and MS risk (OR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02–1.07, p < 0.001) were also significant. Conclusions Our findings demonstrated a significant association between OSA and increased MS risk independent of BMI, and further indicated a role of nocturnal IH in this association. PMID:27695500

  14. Risk factors and prediction of very short term versus short/intermediate term post-stroke mortality: a data mining approach.

    PubMed

    Easton, Jonathan F; Stephens, Christopher R; Angelova, Maia

    2014-11-01

    Data mining and knowledge discovery as an approach to examining medical data can limit some of the inherent bias in the hypothesis assumptions that can be found in traditional clinical data analysis. In this paper we illustrate the benefits of a data mining inspired approach to statistically analysing a bespoke data set, the academic multicentre randomised control trial, U.K Glucose Insulin in Stroke Trial (GIST-UK), with a view to discovering new insights distinct from the original hypotheses of the trial. We consider post-stroke mortality prediction as a function of days since stroke onset, showing that the time scales that best characterise changes in mortality risk are most naturally defined by examination of the mortality curve. We show that certain risk factors differentiate between very short term and intermediate term mortality. In particular, we show that age is highly relevant for intermediate term risk but not for very short or short term mortality. We suggest that this is due to the concept of frailty. Other risk factors are highlighted across a range of variable types including socio-demographics, past medical histories and admission medication. Using the most statistically significant risk factors we build predictive classification models for very short term and short/intermediate term mortality.

  15. Predicted risks of second malignant neoplasm incidence and mortality due to secondary neutrons in a girl and boy receiving proton craniospinal irradiation.

    PubMed

    Taddei, Phillip J; Mahajan, Anita; Mirkovic, Dragan; Zhang, Rui; Giebeler, Annelise; Kornguth, David; Harvey, Mark; Woo, Shiao; Newhauser, Wayne D

    2010-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the predicted risks of second malignant neoplasm (SMN) incidence and mortality from secondary neutrons for a 9-year-old girl and a 10-year-old boy who received proton craniospinal irradiation (CSI). SMN incidence and mortality from neutrons were predicted from equivalent doses to radiosensitive organs for cranial, spinal and intracranial boost fields. Therapeutic proton absorbed dose and equivalent dose from neutrons were calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. Risks of SMN incidence and mortality in most organs and tissues were predicted by applying risks models from the National Research Council of the National Academies to the equivalent dose from neutrons; for non-melanoma skin cancer, risk models from the International Commission on Radiological Protection were applied. The lifetime absolute risks of SMN incidence due to neutrons were 14.8% and 8.5%, for the girl and boy, respectively. The risks of a fatal SMN were 5.3% and 3.4% for the girl and boy, respectively. The girl had a greater risk for any SMN except colon and liver cancers, indicating that the girl's higher risks were not attributable solely to greater susceptibility to breast cancer. Lung cancer predominated the risk of SMN mortality for both patients. This study suggests that the risks of SMN incidence and mortality from neutrons may be greater for girls than for boys treated with proton CSI.

  16. Rapid brain responses independently predict gain maximization and loss minimization during economic decision making.

    PubMed

    San Martín, René; Appelbaum, Lawrence G; Pearson, John M; Huettel, Scott A; Woldorff, Marty G

    2013-04-17

    Success in many decision-making scenarios depends on the ability to maximize gains and minimize losses. Even if an agent knows which cues lead to gains and which lead to losses, that agent could still make choices yielding suboptimal rewards. Here, by analyzing event-related potentials (ERPs) recorded in humans during a probabilistic gambling task, we show that individuals' behavioral tendencies to maximize gains and to minimize losses are associated with their ERP responses to the receipt of those gains and losses, respectively. We focused our analyses on ERP signals that predict behavioral adjustment: the frontocentral feedback-related negativity (FRN) and two P300 (P3) subcomponents, the frontocentral P3a and the parietal P3b. We found that, across participants, gain maximization was predicted by differences in amplitude of the P3b for suboptimal versus optimal gains (i.e., P3b amplitude difference between the least good and the best gains). Conversely, loss minimization was predicted by differences in the P3b amplitude to suboptimal versus optimal losses (i.e., difference between the worst and the least bad losses). Finally, we observed that the P3a and P3b, but not the FRN, predicted behavioral adjustment on subsequent trials, suggesting a specific adaptive mechanism by which prior experience may alter ensuing behavior. These findings indicate that individual differences in gain maximization and loss minimization are linked to individual differences in rapid neural responses to monetary outcomes.

  17. Artificial neural network modeling using clinical and knowledge independent variables predicts salt intake reduction behavior

    PubMed Central

    Isma’eel, Hussain A.; Sakr, George E.; Almedawar, Mohamad M.; Fathallah, Jihan; Garabedian, Torkom; Eddine, Savo Bou Zein

    2015-01-01

    Background High dietary salt intake is directly linked to hypertension and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Predicting behaviors regarding salt intake habits is vital to guide interventions and increase their effectiveness. We aim to compare the accuracy of an artificial neural network (ANN) based tool that predicts behavior from key knowledge questions along with clinical data in a high cardiovascular risk cohort relative to the least square models (LSM) method. Methods We collected knowledge, attitude and behavior data on 115 patients. A behavior score was calculated to classify patients’ behavior towards reducing salt intake. Accuracy comparison between ANN and regression analysis was calculated using the bootstrap technique with 200 iterations. Results Starting from a 69-item questionnaire, a reduced model was developed and included eight knowledge items found to result in the highest accuracy of 62% CI (58-67%). The best prediction accuracy in the full and reduced models was attained by ANN at 66% and 62%, respectively, compared to full and reduced LSM at 40% and 34%, respectively. The average relative increase in accuracy over all in the full and reduced models is 82% and 102%, respectively. Conclusions Using ANN modeling, we can predict salt reduction behaviors with 66% accuracy. The statistical model has been implemented in an online calculator and can be used in clinics to estimate the patient’s behavior. This will help implementation in future research to further prove clinical utility of this tool to guide therapeutic salt reduction interventions in high cardiovascular risk individuals. PMID:26090333

  18. Body weight prediction in early fossil hominids: towards a taxon-"independent" approach.

    PubMed

    Hartwig-Scherer, S

    1993-09-01

    The choice of a model taxon is crucial when investigating fossil hominids that clearly do not resemble any extant species (such as Australopithecus) or show significant differences from modern human proportions (such as Homo habilis OH 62). An "interhominoid" combination is not adequate either, as scaling with body weight is strongly divergent in African apes and humans for most skeletal predictors investigated here. Therefore, in relation to a study of seven long bone dimensions, a new taxon-"independent" approach is suggested. For a given predictor, its taxonomic "independence" is restricted to the size range over which the body weight-predictor relationship for African apes and humans converges. Different predictors produce converging body weight estimates (BWEs) for different size ranges: taxon-"independent" estimates can be calculated for small- and medium-sized hominids (e.g., for weights below 50 kg) using femoral and tibial dimensions, whereas upper limb bones provide converging results for large hominids (above 50 kg). If the remains of Australopithecus afarensis really belong to one species, the relationship of male (above 60 kg) to female body weight (approximately 30 kg) does not fall within the observed range of modern hominoids. Considering Sts 14 (22 kg) to represent a small-sized Australopithecus africanus, the level of encephalization lies well above that of extant apes. If OH 62 (approximately 25 kg), with limb proportions less human-like than those of australopithecines, indeed represents Homo habilis (which has been questioned previously), an increase in relative brain size would have occurred well before full bipedality, an assumption running counter to current assumptions concerning early human evolution. PMID:8238289

  19. Predicted Rupture Force of a Single Molecular Bond Becomes Rate Independent at Ultralow Loading Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Dechang; Ji, Baohua

    2014-02-01

    We present for the first time a theoretical model of studying the saturation of the rupture force of a single molecular bond that causes the rupture force to be rate independent under an ultralow loading rate. This saturation will obviously bring challenges to understanding the rupture behavior of the molecular bond using conventional methods. This intriguing feature implies that the molecular bond has a nonzero strength at a vanishing loading rate. We find that the saturation behavior is caused by bond rebinding when the loading rate is lower than a limiting value depending on the loading stiffness.

  20. Vascular and Alzheimer's disease markers independently predict brain atrophy rate in Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative controls.

    PubMed

    Barnes, Josephine; Carmichael, Owen T; Leung, Kelvin K; Schwarz, Christopher; Ridgway, Gerard R; Bartlett, Jonathan W; Malone, Ian B; Schott, Jonathan M; Rossor, Martin N; Biessels, Geert Jan; DeCarli, Charlie; Fox, Nick C

    2013-08-01

    This study assessed relationships among white matter hyperintensities (WMH), cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology markers, and brain volume loss. Subjects included 197 controls, 331 individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 146 individuals with AD with serial volumetric 1.5-T MRI. CSF Aβ1-42 (n = 351) and tau (n = 346) were measured. Brain volume change was quantified using the boundary shift integral (BSI). We assessed the association between baseline WMH volume and annualized BSI, adjusting for intracranial volume. We also performed multiple regression analyses in the CSF subset, assessing the relationships of WMH and Aβ1-42 and/or tau with BSI. WMH burden was positively associated with BSI in controls (p = 0.02) but not MCI or AD. In multivariable models, WMH (p = 0.003) and Aβ1-42 (p = 0.001) were independently associated with BSI in controls; in MCI Aβ1-42 (p < 0.001) and tau (p = 0.04) were associated with BSI. There was no evidence of independent effects of WMH or CSF measures on BSI in AD. These data support findings that vascular damage is associated with increased brain atrophy in the context of AD pathology in pre-dementia stages.

  1. Target-Independent Prediction of Drug Synergies Using Only Drug Lipophilicity

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Physicochemical properties of compounds have been instrumental in selecting lead compounds with increased drug-likeness. However, the relationship between physicochemical properties of constituent drugs and the tendency to exhibit drug interaction has not been systematically studied. We assembled physicochemical descriptors for a set of antifungal compounds (“drugs”) previously examined for interaction. Analyzing the relationship between molecular weight, lipophilicity, H-bond donor, and H-bond acceptor values for drugs and their propensity to show pairwise antifungal drug synergy, we found that combinations of two lipophilic drugs had a greater tendency to show drug synergy. We developed a more refined decision tree model that successfully predicted drug synergy in stringent cross-validation tests based on only lipophilicity of drugs. Our predictions achieved a precision of 63% and allowed successful prediction for 58% of synergistic drug pairs, suggesting that this phenomenon can extend our understanding for a substantial fraction of synergistic drug interactions. We also generated and analyzed a large-scale synergistic human toxicity network, in which we observed that combinations of lipophilic compounds show a tendency for increased toxicity. Thus, lipophilicity, a simple and easily determined molecular descriptor, is a powerful predictor of drug synergy. It is well established that lipophilic compounds (i) are promiscuous, having many targets in the cell, and (ii) often penetrate into the cell via the cellular membrane by passive diffusion. We discuss the positive relationship between drug lipophilicity and drug synergy in the context of potential drug synergy mechanisms. PMID:25026390

  2. Does Feedback-Related Brain Response during Reinforcement Learning Predict Socio-motivational (In-)dependence in Adolescence?

    PubMed

    Raufelder, Diana; Boehme, Rebecca; Romund, Lydia; Golde, Sabrina; Lorenz, Robert C; Gleich, Tobias; Beck, Anne

    2016-01-01

    This multi-methodological study applied functional magnetic resonance imaging to investigate neural activation in a group of adolescent students (N = 88) during a probabilistic reinforcement learning task. We related patterns of emerging brain activity and individual learning rates to socio-motivational (in-)dependence manifested in four different motivation types (MTs): (1) peer-dependent MT, (2) teacher-dependent MT, (3) peer-and-teacher-dependent MT, (4) peer-and-teacher-independent MT. A multinomial regression analysis revealed that the individual learning rate predicts students' membership to the independent MT, or the peer-and-teacher-dependent MT. Additionally, the striatum, a brain region associated with behavioral adaptation and flexibility, showed increased learning-related activation in students with motivational independence. Moreover, the prefrontal cortex, which is involved in behavioral control, was more active in students of the peer-and-teacher-dependent MT. Overall, this study offers new insights into the interplay of motivation and learning with (1) a focus on inter-individual differences in the role of peers and teachers as source of students' individual motivation and (2) its potential neurobiological basis. PMID:27199873

  3. Does Feedback-Related Brain Response during Reinforcement Learning Predict Socio-motivational (In-)dependence in Adolescence?

    PubMed Central

    Raufelder, Diana; Boehme, Rebecca; Romund, Lydia; Golde, Sabrina; Lorenz, Robert C.; Gleich, Tobias; Beck, Anne

    2016-01-01

    This multi-methodological study applied functional magnetic resonance imaging to investigate neural activation in a group of adolescent students (N = 88) during a probabilistic reinforcement learning task. We related patterns of emerging brain activity and individual learning rates to socio-motivational (in-)dependence manifested in four different motivation types (MTs): (1) peer-dependent MT, (2) teacher-dependent MT, (3) peer-and-teacher-dependent MT, (4) peer-and-teacher-independent MT. A multinomial regression analysis revealed that the individual learning rate predicts students’ membership to the independent MT, or the peer-and-teacher-dependent MT. Additionally, the striatum, a brain region associated with behavioral adaptation and flexibility, showed increased learning-related activation in students with motivational independence. Moreover, the prefrontal cortex, which is involved in behavioral control, was more active in students of the peer-and-teacher-dependent MT. Overall, this study offers new insights into the interplay of motivation and learning with (1) a focus on inter-individual differences in the role of peers and teachers as source of students’ individual motivation and (2) its potential neurobiological basis. PMID:27199873

  4. Role of suPAR and Lactic Acid in Diagnosing Sepsis and Predicting Mortality in Elderly Patients

    PubMed Central

    Khater, Walaa S.; Salah-Eldeen, Noha N.; Khater, Mohamed S.; Saleh, Asghraf N.

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the diagnostic value of soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) and serum lactate in elderly patients with sepsis and evaluated their capacity to predict mortality and their correlation to Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. The study included 80 participants, divided into two groups: 40 cases (mean age, 68.9 ± 5.9) admitted to the intensive care unit and 40 healthy controls (mean age, 67.1 ± 6.2). Elderly patients with sepsis had significantly higher levels of serum suPAR and lactic acid compared to healthy controls. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that suPAR (cutoff value, ≥4.37 ng/ml) has higher area under the curve (AUC) than lactic acid (cutoff value, ≥1.95 mmol/l) for diagnosing sepsis. Serum lactate has superior prognostic value compared to suPAR with AUC of 0.82 (cutoff value, 2.2 mmol/l) and 0.72 (cutoff value, 6.3 ng/ml), respectively. The diagnostic power of combined usage of suPAR and lactate serum concentrations showed AUC of 0.988 (95% confidence interval 0.934 to 1.0). The combination of both biomarkers either together or with SOFA score may serve as a useful guide to patients who need more intensive resuscitation. PMID:27766166

  5. Risk stratification tools for predicting morbidity and mortality in adult patients undergoing major surgery: qualitative systematic review.

    PubMed

    Moonesinghe, Suneetha Ramani; Mythen, Michael G; Das, Priya; Rowan, Kathryn M; Grocott, Michael P W

    2013-10-01

    Risk stratification is essential for both clinical risk prediction and comparative audit. There are a variety of risk stratification tools available for use in major noncardiac surgery, but their discrimination and calibration have not previously been systematically reviewed in heterogeneous patient cohorts.Embase, MEDLINE, and Web of Science were searched for studies published between January 1, 1980 and August 6, 2011 in adult patients undergoing major noncardiac, nonneurological surgery. Twenty-seven studies evaluating 34 risk stratification tools were identified which met inclusion criteria. The Portsmouth-Physiology and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and the Surgical Risk Scale were demonstrated to be the most consistently accurate tools that have been validated in multiple studies; however, both have limitations. Future work should focus on further evaluation of these and other parsimonious risk predictors, including validation in international cohorts. There is also a need for studies examining the impact that the use of these tools has on clinical decision making and patient outcome.

  6. Independent and interdependent self-construals do not predict analytic or holistic reasoning.

    PubMed

    Marquez, Robert C; Ellwanger, Joel

    2014-08-01

    Independent self-construals in Western cultures may promote analytic information processing and low field dependence, while interdependent self-construals in Eastern cultures may foster holistic information processing and high field dependence. To examine these ideas, the social orientation and cognitive style of 254 introductory psychology students were measured. Multiple regression analyses indicated a non-significant relationship between the participants' social orientation and cognitive style (R(2)s ranged from .00 to .01, 95% confidence intervals for R(2) ranged from .00 to .05). These findings indicate that the hypothesis that collectivism and individualism are associated with differences in information processing between individuals needs further scrutiny. The possible reasons for the lack of association between social orientation and cognitive style are discussed. PMID:25153966

  7. Intraoperative Blood Loss Independently Predicts Survival and Recurrence after Resection of Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastasis

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Xiao-Jun; Wang, Fu-Long; Lu, Zhen-Hai; Zhang, Rong-Xin; Ding, Pei-Rong; Fan, Wen-Hua; Pan, Zhi-Zhong; De-Sen Wan

    2013-01-01

    Background Although numerous prognostic factors have been reported for colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM), few studies have reported intraoperative blood loss (IBL) effects on clinical outcome after CRLM resection. Methods We retrospectively evaluated the clinical and histopathological characteristics of 139 patients who underwent liver resection for CRLM. The IBL cutoff volume was calculated using receiver operating characteristic curves. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence free survival (RFS) were assessed using the Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression methods. Results All patients underwent curative resection. The median follow up period was 25.0 months (range, 2.1–88.8). Body mass index (BMI) and CRLM number and tumor size were associated with increased IBL. BMI (P=0.01; 95% CI = 1.3–8.5) and IBL (P<0.01; 95% CI = 1.6–12.5) were independent OSOs predictors. Five factors, including IBL (P=0.02; 95% CI = 1.1–4.1), were significantly related to RFS via multivariate Cox regression analysis. In addition, OSOs and RFS significantly decreased with increasing IBL volumes. The 5-year OSOs of patients with IBL≤250, 250–500, and >500mL were 71%, 33%, and 0%, respectively (P<0.01). RFS of patients within three IBL volumes at the end of the first year were 67%, 38%, and 18%, respectively (P<0.01). Conclusions IBL during CRLM resection is an independent predictor of long term survival and tumor recurrence, and its prognostic value was confirmed by a dose–response relationship. PMID:24098431

  8. Correlation of Amine Swingbed On-Orbit CO2 Performance with a Hardware Independent Predictive Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Papale, William; Sweterlitsch, Jeffery

    2015-01-01

    The Amine Swingbed Payload is an experimental system deployed on the International Space Station (ISS) that includes a two-bed, vacuum regenerated, amine-based carbon dioxide (CO2) removal subsystem as the principal item under investigation. The aminebased subsystem, also described previously in various publications as CAMRAS 3, was originally designed, fabricated and tested by Hamilton Sundstrand Space Systems International, Inc. (HSSSI) and delivered to NASA in November 2008. The CAMRAS 3 unit was subsequently designed into a flight payload experiment in 2010 and 2011, with flight test integration activities accomplished on-orbit between January 2012 and March 2013. Payload activation was accomplished in May 2013 followed by a 1000 hour experimental period. The experimental nature of the Payload and the interaction with the dynamic ISS environment present unique scientific and engineering challenges, in particular to the verification and validation of the expected Payload CO2 removal performance. A modeling and simulation approach that incorporates principles of chemical reaction engineering has been developed for the amine-based system to predict the dynamic cabin CO2 partial pressure with given inputs of sorbent bed size, process air flow, operating temperature, half-cycle time, CO2 generation rate, cabin volume and the magnitude of vacuum available. Simulation runs using the model to predict ambient CO2 concentrations show good correlation to on-orbit performance measurements and ISS dynamic concentrations for the assumed operating conditions. The dynamic predictive modelling could benefit operational planning to help ensure ISS CO2 concentrations are maintained below prescribed limits and for the Orion vehicle to simulate various operating conditions, scenarios and transients.

  9. Autonomic dysfunction independently predicts poor cardiovascular outcomes in asymptomatic individuals with type 2 diabetes in the DIAD study

    PubMed Central

    Wackers, Frans JTh; Inzucchi, Silvio E; Jose, Powell; Weiss, Curtis; Davey, Janice A; Heller, Gary V; Iskandrian, Ami E; Young, Lawrence H

    2015-01-01

    Objective: The primary aim of this secondary analysis was to determine whether cardiac autonomic neuropathy independently predicted adverse cardiac outcomes in asymptomatic individuals with type 2 diabetes. Additional aims include the determination of the correlation of standard autonomic testing measures and power spectral analysis of heart rate variability, and the association of diabetes-related and cardiac risk factors with cardiac autonomic neuropathy measures. Methods: Cardiac autonomic neuropathy was assessed at the study entry into the Detection of Ischemia in Asymptomatic Diabetics study, using autonomic heart rate and blood pressure testing, and power spectral analysis of heart rate variability. All participants were prospectively followed for the composite clinical outcome of cardiac death, acute coronary syndromes, heart failure, or coronary revascularization. Results: Over 5 years of follow-up, 94 of 1119 (8.4%) subjects developed symptomatic cardiac disease. In unadjusted bivariate analyses, abnormalities in several cardiac autonomic neuropathy tests, including lower Valsalva and Standing Heart Rate Ratios, higher resting Heart Rate, greater systolic blood pressure decrease on standing, and lower low-frequency power, were predictive of symptomatic disease. Independent predictors of poor cardiac outcome were a lower Valsalva Heart Rate Ratio, non-Black ethnicity, longer diabetes duration, higher glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), insulin use, reported numbness in the extremities, higher pulse pressure, family history of coronary artery disease, and higher waist-to-hip ratio. Clinical factors independently associated with a lower Valsalva Heart Rate Ratio were insulin use, clinical proteinuria, higher pulse pressure, use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and non-Black ethnicity. Conclusion: Cardiac autonomic neuropathy predicted adverse cardiac outcomes in asymptomatic type 2 diabetes without known cardiac disease. Clinical variables may help to

  10. Risk Factors and Post-Resection Independent Predictive Score for the Recurrence of Hepatitis B-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Poon, Ronnie Tung-Ping; Fong, Daniel Yee-Tak; Chui, Ada Hang-Wai; Seto, Wai-Kay; Fung, James Yan-Yue; Chan, Albert Chi-Yan; Yuen, John Chi-Hang; Tiu, Randal; Choi, Olivia; Lai, Ching-Lung; Yuen, Man-Fung

    2016-01-01

    Background Independent risk factors associated with hepatitis B (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after resection remains unknown. An accurate risk score for HCC recurrence is lacking. Methods We prospectively followed up 200 patients who underwent liver resection for HBV-related HCC for at least 2 years. Demographic, biochemical, tumor, virological and anti-viral treatment factors were analyzed to identify independent risk factors associated with recurrence after resection and a risk score for HCC recurrence formulated. Results Two hundred patients (80% male) who underwent liver resection for HBV-related HCC were recruited. The median time of recurrence was 184 weeks (IQR 52–207 weeks) for the entire cohort and 100 patients (50%) developed HCC recurrence. Stepwise Cox regression analysis identified that one-month post resection HBV DNA >20,000 IU/mL (p = 0.019; relative risk (RR) 1.67; 95% confidence interval (C.I.): 1.09–2.57), the presence of lymphovascular permeation (p<0.001; RR 2.69; 95% C.I.: 1.75–4.12), microsatellite lesions (p<0.001; RR 2.86; 95% C.I.: 1.82–4.51), and AFP >100ng/mL before resection (p = 0.021; RR 1.63; 95% C.I.: 1.08–2.47) were independently associated with HCC recurrence. Antiviral treatment before resection (p = 0.024; RR 0.1; 95% C.I.: 0.01–0.74) was independently associated with reduced risk of HCC recurrence. A post-resection independent predictive score (PRIPS) was derived and validated with sensitivity of 75.3% and 60.6% and specificity of 55.7% and 79.2%, to predict the 1- and 3-year risks for the HCC recurrence respectively with the hazard ratio of 2.71 (95% C.I.: 2.12–3.48; p<0.001). The AUC for the 1- and 3-year prediction were 0.675 (95% C.I.: 0.6–0.78) and 0.746 (95% C.I.: 0.69–0.82) respectively. Conclusion Several tumor, virological and biochemical factors were associated with a higher cumulative risk of HCC recurrence after resection. PRIPS was derived for more accurate risk assessment

  11. Financial strain and stressful events predict newlyweds' negative communication independent of relationship satisfaction.

    PubMed

    Williamson, Hannah C; Karney, Benjamin R; Bradbury, Thomas N

    2013-02-01

    Social-learning perspectives explicitly recognize the role of partners' personal histories and contexts as possible causes of couple communication behavior, but these assumptions are rarely tested directly, and operationalizations of context in behavioral research on couples rarely extend beyond the interacting dyad. To broaden our understanding of why couples differ in communication, the current study examined whether observed behaviors in marital interactions covary with individual experiences and contextual factors. Behaviors coded from in-home conversations of 414 ethnically diverse newlywed couples were examined simultaneously in relation to childhood and family-of-origin experiences, financial strain and stressful life events, depressive symptoms, and relationship satisfaction. A latent factor representing financial strain and stressful life events was the strongest correlate of negative communication, with higher levels of stress predicting more negativity. Relationship satisfaction was the strongest correlate of observed positivity, with higher levels of satisfaction predicting more positivity. Childhood and family experiences were unrelated to behaviors, whereas results for depressive symptoms were complex and counterintuitive. Because the negative behaviors highlighted in social-learning models of relationship functioning, and often targeted in educational interventions, covary reliably with the stresses and financial strains that couples experience, contextual factors merit greater emphasis in models designed to explain and prevent marital deterioration.

  12. Combined prediction model of death toll for road traffic accidents based on independent and dependent variables.

    PubMed

    Feng, Zhong-xiang; Lu, Shi-sheng; Zhang, Wei-hua; Zhang, Nan-nan

    2014-01-01

    In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

  13. Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables

    PubMed Central

    Zhong-xiang, Feng; Shi-sheng, Lu; Wei-hua, Zhang; Nan-nan, Zhang

    2014-01-01

    In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability. PMID:25610454

  14. Metabolic syndrome independently predicts future diabetes in women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus.

    PubMed

    Cho, Nam H; Ahn, Chang Ho; Moon, Joon Ho; Kwak, Soo Heon; Choi, Sung Hee; Lim, Soo; Park, Kyong Soo; Metzger, Boyd E; Jang, Hak C

    2016-08-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is an established predisposing condition for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, it is not thoroughly evaluated whether MetS increases the risk of T2DM in women with a previous history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) who already at high risk of T2DM compared with the general population. We investigated the impact of MetS on the development of postpartum diabetes in women with a history of GDM.This was a multicenter, prospective cohort study of women diagnosed with GDM. The follow-up evaluations, including the oral glucose tolerance test, were completed at 6 weeks postpartum and annually thereafter. MetS was diagnosed at the initial postpartum evaluation according to the revised criteria of the National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III. The risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in the follow-up period was analyzed based on the presence of MetS, and the adjusted risk was calculated using a Cox proportional hazards model.A total of 412 women without diabetes at the initial postpartum evaluation participated in the annual follow-up for median 3.8 years. MetS was prevalent in 66 (19.2%) women at the initial postpartum evaluation. The incidences of diabetes in women with and without MetS were 825 and 227 per 10,000 person-years, respectively (P < 0.001). The presence of MetS was an independent risk factor for T2DM, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.23 (95% confidence interval 1.04-5.08) in multivariate analysis after adjustment for clinical and metabolic parameters. When we considered MetS and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) separately, women with MetS, IFG, or both had an increased risk of T2DM, with HRs of 4.17, 4.36, and 6.98, respectively.The presence of MetS during the early postpartum period is an independent risk factor for the development of T2DM in women with a previous history of GDM. PMID:27583868

  15. Bcl-2/Bax protein ratio predicts 5-fluorouracil sensitivity independently of p53 status

    PubMed Central

    Mirjolet, J-F; Barberi-Heyob, M; Didelot, C; Peyrat, J-P; Abecassis, J; Millon, R; Merlin, J-L

    2000-01-01

    p53 tumour-suppressor gene is involved in cell growth control, arrest and apoptosis. Nevertheless cell cycle arrest and apoptosis induction can be observed in p53-defective cells after exposure to DNA-damaging agents such as 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) suggesting the importance of alternative pathways via p53-independent mechanisms. In order to establish relationship between p53 status, cell cycle arrest, Bcl-2/Bax regulation and 5-FU sensitivity, we examined p53 mRNA and protein expression and p53 protein functionality in wild-type (wt) and mutant (mt) p53 cell lines. p53 mRNA and p53 protein expression were determined before and after exposure to equitoxic 5-FU concentration in six human carcinoma cell lines differing in p53 status and displaying marked differences in 5-FU sensitivity, with IC 50 values ranging from 0.2–22.6 mM. 5-FU induced a rise in p53 mRNA expression in mt p53 cell lines and in human papilloma virus positive wt p53 cell line, whereas significant decrease in p53 mRNA expression was found in wt p53 cell line. Whatever p53 status, 5-FU altered p53 transcriptional and translational regulation leading to up-regulation of p53 protein. In relation with p53 functionality, but independently of p53 mutational status, after exposure to 5-FU equitoxic concentration, all cell lines were able to arrest in G1. No relationship was evidenced between G1 accumulation ability and 5-FU sensitivity. Moreover, after 5-FU exposure, Bax and Bcl-2 proteins regulation was under p53 protein control and a statistically significant relationship (r= 0.880,P= 0.0097) was observed between Bcl-2/Bax ratio and 5-FU sensitivity. In conclusion, whatever p53 status, Bcl-2 or Bax induction and Bcl-2/Bax protein ratio were correlated to 5-FU sensitivity. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaign PMID:11044365

  16. Metabolic syndrome independently predicts future diabetes in women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus

    PubMed Central

    Cho, Nam H.; Ahn, Chang Ho; Moon, Joon Ho; Kwak, Soo Heon; Choi, Sung Hee; Lim, Soo; Park, Kyong Soo; Metzger, Boyd E.; Jang, Hak C.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is an established predisposing condition for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, it is not thoroughly evaluated whether MetS increases the risk of T2DM in women with a previous history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) who already at high risk of T2DM compared with the general population. We investigated the impact of MetS on the development of postpartum diabetes in women with a history of GDM. This was a multicenter, prospective cohort study of women diagnosed with GDM. The follow-up evaluations, including the oral glucose tolerance test, were completed at 6 weeks postpartum and annually thereafter. MetS was diagnosed at the initial postpartum evaluation according to the revised criteria of the National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III. The risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in the follow-up period was analyzed based on the presence of MetS, and the adjusted risk was calculated using a Cox proportional hazards model. A total of 412 women without diabetes at the initial postpartum evaluation participated in the annual follow-up for median 3.8 years. MetS was prevalent in 66 (19.2%) women at the initial postpartum evaluation. The incidences of diabetes in women with and without MetS were 825 and 227 per 10,000 person-years, respectively (P < 0.001). The presence of MetS was an independent risk factor for T2DM, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.23 (95% confidence interval 1.04–5.08) in multivariate analysis after adjustment for clinical and metabolic parameters. When we considered MetS and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) separately, women with MetS, IFG, or both had an increased risk of T2DM, with HRs of 4.17, 4.36, and 6.98, respectively. The presence of MetS during the early postpartum period is an independent risk factor for the development of T2DM in women with a previous history of GDM. PMID:27583868

  17. Subcutaneous abdominal fat and thigh muscle composition predict insulin sensitivity independently of visceral fat.

    PubMed

    Goodpaster, B H; Thaete, F L; Simoneau, J A; Kelley, D E

    1997-10-01

    Whether visceral adipose tissue has a uniquely powerful association with insulin resistance or whether subcutaneous abdominal fat shares this link has generated controversy in the area of body composition and insulin sensitivity. An additional issue is the potential role of fat deposition within skeletal muscle and the relationship with insulin resistance. To address these matters, the current study was undertaken to measure body composition, aerobic fitness, and insulin sensitivity within a cohort of sedentary healthy men (n = 26) and women (n = 28). The subjects, who ranged from lean to obese (BMI 19.6-41.0 kg/m2), underwent dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) to measure fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM), computed tomography to measure cross-sectional abdominal subcutaneous and visceral adipose tissue, and computed tomography (CT) of mid-thigh to measure muscle cross-sectional area, muscle attenuation, and subcutaneous fat. Insulin sensitivity was measured using the glucose clamp technique (40 mU.m-2.min-1), in conjunction with [3-3H]glucose isotope dilution. Maximal aerobic power (VO2max) was determined using an incremental cycling test. Insulin-stimulated glucose disposal (Rd) ranged from 3.03 to 16.83 mg.min-1.kg-1 FFM. Rd was negatively correlated with FM (r = -0.58), visceral fat (r = -0.52), subcutaneous abdominal fat (r = -0.61), and thigh fat (r = -0.38) and positively correlated with muscle attenuation (r = 0.48) and VO2max (r = 0.26, P < 0.05). In addition to manifesting the strongest simple correlation with insulin sensitivity, in stepwise multiple regression, subcutaneous abdominal fat retained significance after adjusting for visceral fat, while the converse was not found. Muscle attenuation contributed independent significance to multiple regression models of body composition and insulin sensitivity, and in analysis of obese subjects, muscle attenuation was the strongest single correlate of insulin resistance. In summary, as a component of

  18. Usefulness of Serum Albumin Concentration to Predict High Coronary SYNTAX Score and In-Hospital Mortality in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome.

    PubMed

    Kurtul, Alparslan; Murat, Sani Namik; Yarlioglues, Mikail; Duran, Mustafa; Ocek, Adil Hakan; Koseoglu, Cemal; Celık, Ibrahim Etem; Kilic, Alparslan; Aksoy, Ozlem

    2016-01-01

    High SYNTAX score is a predictor of adverse cardiovascular events, including mortality, in acute coronary syndromes (ACSs). Decreased serum albumin (SA) concentration is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. We aimed to investigate whether SA levels at admission are associated with high SYNTAX score and in-hospital mortality in patients with ACS. The study included 1303 patients with ACS who underwent coronary angiography (CA). The patients were divided into 2 groups as high SYNTAX score (≥33) and lower SYNTAX score (≤32). Baseline SA levels were significantly lower in patients with high SYNTAX score than with lower SYNTAX score (3.46 ± 0.42 mg/dL vs 3.97±0.37 mg/dL, respectively; P < .001). On multivariate logistic regression, SA (<3.65 mg/dL) was an independent predictor of high SYNTAX score (odds ratio 4.329, 95% confidence interval 2.028-8.264; P < .001) together with admission glucose, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and left ventricular ejection fraction. In Cox regression analyses, systolic blood pressure, high SYNTAX score, and SA (<3.65 mg/dL) were found as independent predictors of in-hospital all-cause mortality. In conclusion, SA concentration on admission is inversely associated with high SYNTAX score and in-hospital mortality in ACS.

  19. Emotional Experience Predicts Social Adjustment Independent of Neurocognition and Social Cognition in Schizophrenia

    PubMed Central

    Tso, Ivy F.; Grove, Tyler B.; Taylor, Stephan F.

    2009-01-01

    Background Emotion abnormalities are prominent features of schizophrenia. While the capacity for emotions is essential to social adaptation, little is known about the role of emotional experience in the social dysfunction observed in schizophrenia. Objective This study examined the contribution of emotional experience, neurocognition, and social cognition to functional outcome in schizophrenia. Method Self-reported emotional experience (anhedonia, affect intensity, emotion frequency) was assessed in 33 stable schizophrenic/schizoaffective patients and 33 healthy controls. Symptoms, neurocognition, social cognition, and functional outcome were also assessed. Results Patients and controls exhibited good internal reliability on all self-report scales, except for negative affect intensity. Patients reported equally intense but less frequent positive emotions, more intense and frequent negative emotions, and more anhedonia. Results of hierarchical regression analyses showed that emotional experience accounted for significant amounts of variance of social adjustment independent of neurocognition and social cognition. Conclusion These data show that emotional experience can be reliably assessed and is an important determinant of functional outcome in schizophrenia. PMID:20051314

  20. Human Papillomavirus Infections are Common and Predict Mortality in a Retrospective Cohort Study of Taiwanese Patients With Oral Cavity Cancer.

    PubMed

    Lee, Li-Ang; Huang, Chung-Guei; Tsao, Kuo-Chien; Liao, Chun-Ta; Kang, Chung-Jan; Chang, Kai-Ping; Huang, Shiang-Fu; Chen, I-How; Fang, Tuan-Jen; Li, Hsueh-Yu; Yang, Shu-Li; Lee, Li-Yu; Hsueh, Chuen; Lin, Chien-Yu; Fan, Kang-Hsing; Chang, Tung-Chieh; Wang, Hung-Ming; Ng, Shu-Hang; Yen, Tzu-Chen

    2015-11-01

    confirmed in the 2008 cohort (c-statistic = 0.71).We conclude that HPV infections are common in Taiwanese OCC patients and predict 5-year OS. If independently validated, our composite prognostic score comprising HPV16 infection may be useful for allocating OCC patients to risk-adapted therapies. PMID:26632712

  1. Human Papillomavirus Infections are Common and Predict Mortality in a Retrospective Cohort Study of Taiwanese Patients With Oral Cavity Cancer.

    PubMed

    Lee, Li-Ang; Huang, Chung-Guei; Tsao, Kuo-Chien; Liao, Chun-Ta; Kang, Chung-Jan; Chang, Kai-Ping; Huang, Shiang-Fu; Chen, I-How; Fang, Tuan-Jen; Li, Hsueh-Yu; Yang, Shu-Li; Lee, Li-Yu; Hsueh, Chuen; Lin, Chien-Yu; Fan, Kang-Hsing; Chang, Tung-Chieh; Wang, Hung-Ming; Ng, Shu-Hang; Yen, Tzu-Chen

    2015-11-01

    confirmed in the 2008 cohort (c-statistic = 0.71).We conclude that HPV infections are common in Taiwanese OCC patients and predict 5-year OS. If independently validated, our composite prognostic score comprising HPV16 infection may be useful for allocating OCC patients to risk-adapted therapies.

  2. Human Papillomavirus Infections are Common and Predict Mortality in a Retrospective Cohort Study of Taiwanese Patients With Oral Cavity Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Li-Ang; Huang, Chung-Guei; Tsao, Kuo-Chien; Liao, Chun-Ta; Kang, Chung-Jan; Chang, Kai-Ping; Huang, Shiang-Fu; Chen, I-How; Fang, Tuan-Jen; Li, Hsueh-Yu; Yang, Shu-Li; Lee, Li-Yu; Hsueh, Chuen; Lin, Chien-Yu; Fan, Kang-Hsing; Chang, Tung-Chieh; Wang, Hung-Ming; Ng, Shu-Hang; Yen, Tzu-Chen

    2015-01-01

    validity of the index was internally confirmed in the 2008 cohort (c-statistic = 0.71). We conclude that HPV infections are common in Taiwanese OCC patients and predict 5-year OS. If independently validated, our composite prognostic score comprising HPV16 infection may be useful for allocating OCC patients to risk-adapted therapies. PMID:26632712

  3. Incident Subjective Cognitive Decline Does Not Predict Mortality in the Elderly – Results from the Longitudinal German Study on Ageing, Cognition, and Dementia (AgeCoDe)

    PubMed Central

    Roehr, Susanne; Luck, Tobias; Heser, Kathrin; Fuchs, Angela; Ernst, Annette; Wiese, Birgitt; Werle, Jochen; Bickel, Horst; Brettschneider, Christian; Koppara, Alexander; Pentzek, Michael; Lange, Carolin; Prokein, Jana; Weyerer, Siegfried; Mösch, Edelgard; König, Hans-Helmut; Maier, Wolfgang; Scherer, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Objective Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) might represent the first symptomatic representation of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), which is associated with increased mortality. Only few studies, however, have analyzed the association of SCD and mortality, and if so, based on prevalent cases. Thus, we investigated incident SCD in memory and mortality. Methods Data were derived from the German AgeCoDe study, a prospective longitudinal study on the epidemiology of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia in primary care patients over 75 years covering an observation period of 7.5 years. We used univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses to examine the relationship of SCD and mortality. Further, we estimated survival times by the Kaplan Meier method and case-fatality rates with regard to SCD. Results Among 971 individuals without objective cognitive impairment, 233 (24.0%) incidentally expressed SCD at follow-up I. Incident SCD was not significantly associated with increased mortality in the univariate (HR = 1.0, 95% confidence interval = 0.8–1.3, p = .90) as well as in the multivariate analysis (HR = 0.9, 95% confidence interval = 0.7–1.2, p = .40). The same applied for SCD in relation to concerns. Mean survival time with SCD was 8.0 years (SD = 0.1) after onset. Conclusion Incident SCD in memory in individuals with unimpaired cognitive performance does not predict mortality. The main reason might be that SCD does not ultimately lead into future cognitive decline in any case. However, as prevalence studies suggest, subjectively perceived decline in non-memory cognitive domains might be associated with increased mortality. Future studies may address mortality in such other cognitive domains of SCD in incident cases. PMID:26766555

  4. Can We Understand Why Cognitive Function Predicts Mortality? Results from the Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPS)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gallacher, John; Bayer, Anthony; Dunstan, Frank; Yarnell, John; Elwood, Peter; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav

    2009-01-01

    The association between cognitive function and mortality is of increasing interest. We followed 1870 men aged 55-69 years at cognitive assessment for 16 years to establish associations with all case and cause specific mortality. Cognitive assessment included AH4, 4 choice reaction time (used as estimates of mid-life cognition) and the National…

  5. Prognostic breast cancer signature identified from 3D culture model accurately predicts clinical outcome across independent datasets

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, Katherine J.; Patrick, Denis R.; Bissell, Mina J.; Fournier, Marcia V.

    2008-10-20

    One of the major tenets in breast cancer research is that early detection is vital for patient survival by increasing treatment options. To that end, we have previously used a novel unsupervised approach to identify a set of genes whose expression predicts prognosis of breast cancer patients. The predictive genes were selected in a well-defined three dimensional (3D) cell culture model of non-malignant human mammary epithelial cell morphogenesis as down-regulated during breast epithelial cell acinar formation and cell cycle arrest. Here we examine the ability of this gene signature (3D-signature) to predict prognosis in three independent breast cancer microarray datasets having 295, 286, and 118 samples, respectively. Our results show that the 3D-signature accurately predicts prognosis in three unrelated patient datasets. At 10 years, the probability of positive outcome was 52, 51, and 47 percent in the group with a poor-prognosis signature and 91, 75, and 71 percent in the group with a good-prognosis signature for the three datasets, respectively (Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, p<0.05). Hazard ratios for poor outcome were 5.5 (95% CI 3.0 to 12.2, p<0.0001), 2.4 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.6, p<0.0001) and 1.9 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.2, p = 0.016) and remained significant for the two larger datasets when corrected for estrogen receptor (ER) status. Hence the 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome in both ER-positive and ER-negative tumors, though individual genes differed in their prognostic ability in the two subtypes. Genes that were prognostic in ER+ patients are AURKA, CEP55, RRM2, EPHA2, FGFBP1, and VRK1, while genes prognostic in ER patients include ACTB, FOXM1 and SERPINE2 (Kaplan-Meier p<0.05). Multivariable Cox regression analysis in the largest dataset showed that the 3D-signature was a strong independent factor in predicting breast cancer outcome. The 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome across multiple datasets and holds prognostic

  6. PTEN Phosphatase-Independent Maintenance of Glandular Morphology in a Predictive Colorectal Cancer Model System1

    PubMed Central

    Jagan, Ishaan C; Deevi, Ravi K; Fatehullah, Aliya; Topley, Rebecca; Eves, Joshua; Stevenson, Michael; Loughrey, Maurice; Arthur, Kenneth; Campbell, Frederick Charles

    2013-01-01

    Organotypic models may provide mechanistic insight into colorectal cancer (CRC) morphology. Three-dimensional (3D) colorectal gland formation is regulated by phosphatase and tensin homologue deleted on chromosome 10 (PTEN) coupling of cell division cycle 42 (cdc42) to atypical protein kinase C (aPKC). This study investigated PTEN phosphatase-dependent and phosphatase-independent morphogenic functions in 3D models and assessed translational relevance in human studies. Isogenic PTEN-expressing or PTEN-deficient 3D colorectal cultures were used. In translational studies, apical aPKC activity readout was assessed against apical membrane (AM) orientation and gland morphology in 3D models and human CRC. We found that catalytically active or inactive PTEN constructs containing an intact C2 domain enhanced cdc42 activity, whereas mutants of the C2 domain calcium binding region 3 membrane-binding loop (M-CBR3) were ineffective. The isolated PTEN C2 domain (C2) accumulated in membrane fractions, but C2 M-CBR3 remained in cytosol. Transfection of C2 but not C2 M-CBR3 rescued defective AM orientation and 3D morphogenesis of PTEN-deficient Caco-2 cultures. The signal intensity of apical phospho-aPKC correlated with that of Na+/H+ exchanger regulatory factor-1 (NHERF-1) in the 3D model. Apical NHERF-1 intensity thus provided readout of apical aPKC activity and associated with glandular morphology in the model system and human colon. Low apical NHERF-1 intensity in CRC associated with disruption of glandular architecture, high cancer grade, and metastatic dissemination. We conclude that the membrane-binding function of the catalytically inert PTEN C2 domain influences cdc42/aPKC-dependent AM dynamics and gland formation in a highly relevant 3D CRC morphogenesis model system. PMID:24348097

  7. MicroRNA-155 expression is independently predictive of outcome in chordoma

    PubMed Central

    Osaka, Eiji; Kelly, Andrew D.; Spentzos, Dimitrios; Choy, Edwin; Yang, Xiaoqian; Shen, Jacson K.; Yang, Pei; Mankin, Henry J.; Hornicek, Francis J.; Duan, Zhenfeng

    2015-01-01

    Background Chordoma pathogenesis remains poorly understood. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the relationships between microRNA-155 (miR-155) expression and the clinicopathological features of chordoma patients, and to evaluate the functional role of miR-155 in chordoma. Methods The miRNA expression profiles were analyzed using miRNA microarray assays. Regulatory activity of miR-155 was assessed using bioinformatic tools. miR-155 expression levels were validated by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. The relationships between miR-155 expression and the clinicopathological features of chordoma patients were analyzed. Proliferative, migratory and invasive activities were assessed by MTT, wound healing, and Matrigel invasion assays, respectively. Results The miRNA microarray assay revealed miR-155 to be highly expressed and biologically active in chordoma. miR-155 expression in chordoma tissues was significantly elevated, and this expression correlated significantly with disease stage (p = 0.036) and the presence of metastasis (p = 0.035). miR-155 expression also correlated significantly with poor outcomes for chordoma patients (hazard ratio, 5.32; p = 0.045). Inhibition of miR-155 expression suppressed proliferation, and the migratory and invasive activities of chordoma cells. Conclusions We have shown miR-155 expression to independently affect prognosis in chordoma. These results collectively indicate that miR-155 expression may serve not only as a prognostic marker, but also as a potential therapeutic target in chordoma. PMID:25823817

  8. High lysophosphatidylcholine acyltransferase 1 expression independently predicts high risk for biochemical recurrence in prostate cancers.

    PubMed

    Grupp, Katharina; Sanader, Stella; Sirma, Hüseyin; Simon, Ronald; Koop, Christina; Prien, Kristina; Hube-Magg, Claudia; Salomon, Georg; Graefen, Markus; Heinzer, Hans; Minner, Sarah; Izbicki, Jakob R; Sauter, Guido; Schlomm, Thorsten; Tsourlakis, Maria Christina

    2013-12-01

    Lysophosphatidylcholine acyltransferase 1 (LPCAT1) has been suggested to play a role in cancer. To assess its role in prostate cancer, LPCAT1 expression was analyzed on a tissue microarray containing samples from 11,152 prostate cancer patients. In benign prostate glands, LPCAT1 immunostaining was absent or weak. In prostate cancer, LPCAT1 positivity was found in 73.8% of 8786 interpretable tumors including 29.2% with strong expression. Increased LPCAT1 expression was associated with advanced tumor stage (pT3b/T4) (p < 0.0001), high Gleason score (≥4 + 4) (p < 0.0001), positive nodal involvement (p = 0.0002), positive surgical margin (p = 0.0005), and early PSA recurrence (p < 0.0001). High LPCAT1 expression was strongly linked to ERG-fusion type prostate cancer. Strong LPCAT1 staining was detected in 45.3% of ERG positive but in only 16.7% of ERG negative tumors (p < 0.0001). Within ERG negative cancers, LPCAT1 staining was strongly increased within the subgroup of PTEN deleted cancers (p < 0.0001). Further subgroup analyses revealed that associations of high LPCAT1 expression with PSA recurrence and unfavorable tumor phenotype were largely driven by ERG negative cancers (p < 0.0001) while these effects were substantially mitigated in ERG positive cancers (p = 0.0073). The prognostic impact of LPCAT1 expression was independent of histological and clinical parameters. It is concluded, that LPCAT1 measurement, either alone or in combination, may be utilized for better clinical decision-making. These data also highlight the potentially important role of lipid metabolism in prostate cancer biology.

  9. Glutathione transferase-A2 S112T polymorphism predicts survival, transplant-related mortality, busulfan and bilirubin blood levels after allogeneic stem cell transplantation

    PubMed Central

    Bonifazi, Francesca; Storci, Gianluca; Bandini, Giuseppe; Marasco, Elena; Dan, Elisa; Zani, Elena; Albani, Fiorenzo; Bertoni, Sara; Bontadini, Andrea; De Carolis, Sabrina; Sapienza, Maria Rosaria; Rizzi, Simonetta; Motta, Maria Rosa; Ferioli, Martina; Garagnani, Paolo; Cavo, Michele; Mantovani, Vilma; Bonafè, Massimiliano

    2014-01-01

    Busulfan liver metabolism depends on glutathione, a crucial mediator of cellular and systemic stress. Here we investigated 40 polymorphisms at 27 loci involved in hepatic glutathione homeostasis, with the aim of testing their impact on the clinical outcome of 185 busulfan-conditioned allogeneic transplants. GSTA2 S112T serine allele homozygosity is an independent prognostic factor for poorer survival (RR=2.388), for increased any time- and 100-day transplant-related mortality (RR=4.912 and RR=5.185, respectively). The genotype also predicts a wider busulfan area under the concentration-time curve (1214.36±570.06 vs. 838.10±282.40 mMol*min) and higher post-transplant bilirubin serum levels (3.280±0.422 vs. 1.874+0.197 mg/dL). In vitro, busulfan elicits pro-inflammatory activation (increased NF-KappaB activity and interleukin-8 expression) in human hepatoma cells. At the same time, the drug down-regulates a variety of genes involved in bilirubin liver clearance: constitutive androstane receptor, multidrug resistance-associated protein, solute carrier organic anion transporters, and even GSTA2. It is worthy of note that GSTA2 also acts as an intra-hepatic bilirubin binding protein. These data underline the prognostic value of GSTA2 genetic variability in busulfan-conditioned allotransplants and suggest a patho-physiological model in which busulfan-induced inflammation leads to the impairment of post-transplant bilirubin metabolism. PMID:24056816

  10. Flow-dependent versus flow-independent initial perturbations for ensemble prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magnusson, Linus; Nycander, Jonas; Källén, Erland

    2009-03-01

    Ensemble prediction relies on a faithful representation of initial uncertainties in a forecasting system. Early research on initial perturbation methods tested random perturbations by adding `white noise' to the analysis. Here, an alternative kind of random perturbations is introduced by using the difference between two randomly chosen atmospheric states (i.e. analyses). It yields perturbations (random field, RF, perturbations) in approximate flow balance. The RF method is compared with the operational singular vector based ensemble at European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the ensemble transform (ET) method. All three methods have been implemented on the ECMWF IFS-model with resolution TL255L40. The properties of the different perturbation methods have been investigated both by comparing the dynamical properties and the quality of the ensembles in terms of different skill scores. The results show that the RF perturbations initially have the same dynamical properties as the natural variability of the atmosphere. After a day of integration, the perturbations from all three methods converge. The skill scores indicate a statistically significant advantage for the RF method for the first 2-3 d for the most of the evaluated parameters. For the medium range (3-8 d), the differences are very small.

  11. Evaluation of artificial neural network algorithms for predicting METs and activity type from accelerometer data: validation on an independent sample

    PubMed Central

    Lyden, Kate; Kozey-Keadle, Sarah; Staudenmayer, John

    2011-01-01

    Previous work from our laboratory provided a “proof of concept” for use of artificial neural networks (nnets) to estimate metabolic equivalents (METs) and identify activity type from accelerometer data (Staudenmayer J, Pober D, Crouter S, Bassett D, Freedson P, J Appl Physiol 107: 1330–1307, 2009). The purpose of this study was to develop new nnets based on a larger, more diverse, training data set and apply these nnet prediction models to an independent sample to evaluate the robustness and flexibility of this machine-learning modeling technique. The nnet training data set (University of Massachusetts) included 277 participants who each completed 11 activities. The independent validation sample (n = 65) (University of Tennessee) completed one of three activity routines. Criterion measures were 1) measured METs assessed using open-circuit indirect calorimetry; and 2) observed activity to identify activity type. The nnet input variables included five accelerometer count distribution features and the lag-1 autocorrelation. The bias and root mean square errors for the nnet MET trained on University of Massachusetts and applied to University of Tennessee were +0.32 and 1.90 METs, respectively. Seventy-seven percent of the activities were correctly classified as sedentary/light, moderate, or vigorous intensity. For activity type, household and locomotion activities were correctly classified by the nnet activity type 98.1 and 89.5% of the time, respectively, and sport was correctly classified 23.7% of the time. Use of this machine-learning technique operates reasonably well when applied to an independent sample. We propose the creation of an open-access activity dictionary, including accelerometer data from a broad array of activities, leading to further improvements in prediction accuracy for METs, activity intensity, and activity type. PMID:21885802

  12. Increase in skin autofluorescence and release of heart-type fatty acid binding protein in plasma predicts mortality of hemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Arsov, Stefan; Trajceska, Lada; van Oeveren, Wim; Smit, Andries J; Dzekova, Pavlina; Stegmayr, Bernd; Sikole, Aleksandar; Rakhorst, Gerhard; Graaff, Reindert

    2013-07-01

    Advanced glycation end-products (AGEs) are uremic toxins that accumulate progressively in hemodialysis (HD) patients. The aim of this study was to assess the 1-year increase in skin autofluorescence (ΔAF), a measure of AGEs accumulation and plasma markers, as predictors of mortality in HD patients. One hundred sixty-nine HD patients were enrolled in this study. Skin autofluorescence was measured twice, 1 year apart using an AGE Reader (DiagnOptics Technologies BV, Groningen, The Netherlands). Besides routine blood chemistry, additional plasma markers including superoxide dismutase, myeloperoxydase, intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1), C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), heart-type fatty acid binding protein (H-FABP), and von Willebrand factor were measured at baseline. The mortality of HD patients was followed for 36 months. Skin autofluorescence values of the HD patients at the two time points were significantly higher (P < 0.001) than those of healthy subjects of the same age. Mean 1-year ΔAF of HD patients was 0.16 ± 0.06, which was around seven- to ninefold higher than 1-year ΔAF in healthy subjects. Multivariate Cox regression showed that age, hypertension, 1-year ΔAF, hs-CRP, ICAM-1, and H-FABP were independent predictors of overall mortality. Hypertension, 1-year ΔAF, hs-CRP, and H-FABP were also independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality. One-year ΔAF and plasma H-FABP, used separately and in combination, are strong predictors of overall and cardiovascular mortality in HD patients.

  13. Increase in skin autofluorescence and release of heart-type fatty acid binding protein in plasma predicts mortality of hemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Arsov, Stefan; Trajceska, Lada; van Oeveren, Wim; Smit, Andries J; Dzekova, Pavlina; Stegmayr, Bernd; Sikole, Aleksandar; Rakhorst, Gerhard; Graaff, Reindert

    2013-07-01

    Advanced glycation end-products (AGEs) are uremic toxins that accumulate progressively in hemodialysis (HD) patients. The aim of this study was to assess the 1-year increase in skin autofluorescence (ΔAF), a measure of AGEs accumulation and plasma markers, as predictors of mortality in HD patients. One hundred sixty-nine HD patients were enrolled in this study. Skin autofluorescence was measured twice, 1 year apart using an AGE Reader (DiagnOptics Technologies BV, Groningen, The Netherlands). Besides routine blood chemistry, additional plasma markers including superoxide dismutase, myeloperoxydase, intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1), C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), heart-type fatty acid binding protein (H-FABP), and von Willebrand factor were measured at baseline. The mortality of HD patients was followed for 36 months. Skin autofluorescence values of the HD patients at the two time points were significantly higher (P < 0.001) than those of healthy subjects of the same age. Mean 1-year ΔAF of HD patients was 0.16 ± 0.06, which was around seven- to ninefold higher than 1-year ΔAF in healthy subjects. Multivariate Cox regression showed that age, hypertension, 1-year ΔAF, hs-CRP, ICAM-1, and H-FABP were independent predictors of overall mortality. Hypertension, 1-year ΔAF, hs-CRP, and H-FABP were also independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality. One-year ΔAF and plasma H-FABP, used separately and in combination, are strong predictors of overall and cardiovascular mortality in HD patients. PMID:23635017

  14. The VACS Index Accurately Predicts Mortality and Treatment Response among Multi-Drug Resistant HIV Infected Patients Participating in the Options in Management with Antiretrovirals (OPTIMA) Study

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Sheldon T.; Tate, Janet P.; Kyriakides, Tassos C.; Kirkwood, Katherine A.; Holodniy, Mark; Goulet, Joseph L.; Angus, Brian J.; Cameron, D. William; Justice, Amy C.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives The VACS Index is highly predictive of all-cause mortality among HIV infected individuals within the first few years of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). However, its accuracy among highly treatment experienced individuals and its responsiveness to treatment interventions have yet to be evaluated. We compared the accuracy and responsiveness of the VACS Index with a Restricted Index of age and traditional HIV biomarkers among patients enrolled in the OPTIMA study. Methods Using data from 324/339 (96%) patients in OPTIMA, we evaluated associations between indices and mortality using Kaplan-Meier estimates, proportional hazards models, Harrel’s C-statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI). We also determined the association between study interventions and risk scores over time, and change in score and mortality. Results Both the Restricted Index (c = 0.70) and VACS Index (c = 0.74) predicted mortality from baseline, but discrimination was improved with the VACS Index (NRI = 23%). Change in score from baseline to 48 weeks was more strongly associated with survival for the VACS Index than the Restricted Index with respective hazard ratios of 0.26 (95% CI 0.14–0.49) and 0.39(95% CI 0.22–0.70) among the 25% most improved scores, and 2.08 (95% CI 1.27–3.38) and 1.51 (95%CI 0.90–2.53) for the 25% least improved scores. Conclusions The VACS Index predicts all-cause mortality more accurately among multi-drug resistant, treatment experienced individuals and is more responsive to changes in risk associated with treatment intervention than an index restricted to age and HIV biomarkers. The VACS Index holds promise as an intermediate outcome for intervention research. PMID:24667813

  15. Fluid Intelligence Is Independently Associated with All-Cause Mortality over 17 Years in an Elderly Community Sample: An Investigation of Potential Mechanisms

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Batterham, Philip J.; Christensen, Helen; Mackinnon, Andrew J.

    2009-01-01

    The long-term relationship between lower intelligence and mortality risk in later life is well established, even when controlling for a range of health and sociodemographic measures. However, there is some evidence for differential effects in various domains of cognitive performance. Specifically, tests of fluid intelligence may have a stronger…

  16. Gender differences in the predictive role of self-rated health on short-term risk of mortality among older adults

    PubMed Central

    Assari, Shervin

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Despite the well-established association between self-rated health and mortality, research findings have been inconsistent regarding how men and women differ on this link. Using a national sample in the United States, this study compared American male and female older adults for the predictive role of baseline self-rated health on the short-term risk of mortality. Methods: This longitudinal study followed 1500 older adults (573 men (38.2%) and 927 women (61.8%)) aged 66 years or older for 3 years from 2001 to 2004. The main predictor of interest was self-rated health, which was measured using a single item in 2001. The outcome was the risk of all-cause mortality during the 3-year follow-up period. Demographic factors (race and age), socio-economic factors (education and marital status), and health behaviors (smoking and drinking) were covariates. Gender was the focal moderator. We ran logistic regression models in the pooled sample and also stratified by gender, with self-rated health treated as either nominal variables, poor compared to other levels (i.e. fair, good, or excellent) or excellent compared to other levels (i.e. good, fair, or poor), or an ordinal variable. Results: In the pooled sample, baseline self-rated health predicted mortality risk, regardless of how the variable was treated. We found a significant interaction between gender and poor self-rated health, indicating a stronger effect of poor self-rated health on mortality risk for men compared to women. Gender did not interact with excellent self-rated health on mortality. Conclusion: Perceived poor self-rated health better reflects risk of mortality over a short period of time for older men compared to older women. Clinicians may need to take poor self-rated health of older men very seriously. Future research should test whether the differential predictive validity of self-rated health based on gender is due to a different meaning of poor self-rated health for older men and women

  17. Gender differences in the predictive role of self-rated health on short-term risk of mortality among older adults

    PubMed Central

    Assari, Shervin

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Despite the well-established association between self-rated health and mortality, research findings have been inconsistent regarding how men and women differ on this link. Using a national sample in the United States, this study compared American male and female older adults for the predictive role of baseline self-rated health on the short-term risk of mortality. Methods: This longitudinal study followed 1500 older adults (573 men (38.2%) and 927 women (61.8%)) aged 66 years or older for 3 years from 2001 to 2004. The main predictor of interest was self-rated health, which was measured using a single item in 2001. The outcome was the risk of all-cause mortality during the 3-year follow-up period. Demographic factors (race and age), socio-economic factors (education and marital status), and health behaviors (smoking and drinking) were covariates. Gender was the focal moderator. We ran logistic regression models in the pooled sample and also stratified by gender, with self-rated health treated as either nominal variables, poor compared to other levels (i.e. fair, good, or excellent) or excellent compared to other levels (i.e. good, fair, or poor), or an ordinal variable. Results: In the pooled sample, baseline self-rated health predicted mortality risk, regardless of how the variable was treated. We found a significant interaction between gender and poor self-rated health, indicating a stronger effect of poor self-rated health on mortality risk for men compared to women. Gender did not interact with excellent self-rated health on mortality. Conclusion: Perceived poor self-rated health better reflects risk of mortality over a short period of time for older men compared to older women. Clinicians may need to take poor self-rated health of older men very seriously. Future research should test whether the differential predictive validity of self-rated health based on gender is due to a different meaning of poor self-rated health for older men and women

  18. Change in waist circumference over 11 years and current waist circumference independently predict elevated CRP in Filipino women

    PubMed Central

    Rutherford, J.N.; McDade, T.W.; Lee, N.R.; Adair, L.; Kuzawa, C.

    2012-01-01

    C-reactive protein, a marker of chronic, low-grade inflammation, is strongly associated with current central adiposity, and has been linked to elevated risk of cardiovascular disease. Less is known about the contribution of longitudinal change in waist circumference to current inflammation. We evaluated the extent to which current waist circumference and change over an 11-year interval contribute independently to low-grade systemic inflammation measured in a group of 1,294 women, 35–69 years, participating in the Cebu Longitudinal Nutrition and Health Survey in the Philippines. Waist circumference was measured at the time of blood draw for CRP analysis in 2005 and during an earlier survey in 1994. A waist circumference delta variable was constructed by subtracting current circumference from past circumference. We used logistic regression models to predict having an elevated plasma CRP concentration (3 mg/Lindependent predictor of elevated CRP risk (OR=1.023, 95% CI=1.00,1.05, P<0.05). Considering the average increase over time, the cumulative risk of elevated CRP due to increased central adiposity was 20.1%. However, women who reduced their waist circumference between 1994 and 2005 had greatly reduced risk (6.2%), suggesting that even long-term inflammatory burden can be reversed by weight loss. Although current waist circumference is an important contributor to risk of elevated systemic inflammation in this as in other populations, history of central adiposity may be an independent phenomenon. PMID:19856425

  19. Don't worry, be (moderately) happy: Mothers' anxiety and positivity during pregnancy independently predict lower mother-infant synchrony.

    PubMed

    Moore, Ginger A; Quigley, Kelsey M; Voegtline, Kristin M; DiPietro, Janet A

    2016-02-01

    Maternal positivity and mother-infant synchrony have been linked, independently, to beneficial infant outcomes; however, research that has examined relations between the two has found that higher positivity is associated with lower synchrony. Methodological issues may inform this counter-intuitive association and clinical theory supports its validity. This study examined the theory that heightened positivity associated with anxiety is a way of avoiding negative emotion and contributes to lower synchrony because it interferes with appropriate responding to infant cues. We examined mothers' (N=75) self-reported anxiety and verbal expression of positivity during pregnancy in relation to mother-infant synchrony at 6 months post-partum. Verbal positivity was assessed using linguistic analysis of interviews about pregnancy experiences. Mother and infant affect and gaze were coded during interaction and synchrony was computed as the correlation between mother and infant behaviors. Higher verbal positivity and anxiety during pregnancy independently predicted lower mother-infant synchrony, suggesting distinct pathways to the same degree of synchrony with potentially different consequences for infant development.

  20. Don't worry, be (moderately) happy: Mothers' anxiety and positivity during pregnancy independently predict lower mother-infant synchrony.

    PubMed

    Moore, Ginger A; Quigley, Kelsey M; Voegtline, Kristin M; DiPietro, Janet A

    2016-02-01

    Maternal positivity and mother-infant synchrony have been linked, independently, to beneficial infant outcomes; however, research that has examined relations between the two has found that higher positivity is associated with lower synchrony. Methodological issues may inform this counter-intuitive association and clinical theory supports its validity. This study examined the theory that heightened positivity associated with anxiety is a way of avoiding negative emotion and contributes to lower synchrony because it interferes with appropriate responding to infant cues. We examined mothers' (N=75) self-reported anxiety and verbal expression of positivity during pregnancy in relation to mother-infant synchrony at 6 months post-partum. Verbal positivity was assessed using linguistic analysis of interviews about pregnancy experiences. Mother and infant affect and gaze were coded during interaction and synchrony was computed as the correlation between mother and infant behaviors. Higher verbal positivity and anxiety during pregnancy independently predicted lower mother-infant synchrony, suggesting distinct pathways to the same degree of synchrony with potentially different consequences for infant development. PMID:26705933

  1. Attentional Selection Can Be Predicted by Reinforcement Learning of Task-relevant Stimulus Features Weighted by Value-independent Stickiness.

    PubMed

    Balcarras, Matthew; Ardid, Salva; Kaping, Daniel; Everling, Stefan; Womelsdorf, Thilo

    2016-02-01

    Attention includes processes that evaluate stimuli relevance, select the most relevant stimulus against less relevant stimuli, and bias choice behavior toward the selected information. It is not clear how these processes interact. Here, we captured these processes in a reinforcement learning framework applied to a feature-based attention task that required macaques to learn and update the value of stimulus features while ignoring nonrelevant sensory features, locations, and action plans. We found that value-based reinforcement learning mechanisms could account for feature-based attentional selection and choice behavior but required a value-independent stickiness selection process to explain selection errors while at asymptotic behavior. By comparing different reinforcement learning schemes, we found that trial-by-trial selections were best predicted by a model that only represents expected values for the task-relevant feature dimension, with nonrelevant stimulus features and action plans having only a marginal influence on covert selections. These findings show that attentional control subprocesses can be described by (1) the reinforcement learning of feature values within a restricted feature space that excludes irrelevant feature dimensions, (2) a stochastic selection process on feature-specific value representations, and (3) value-independent stickiness toward previous feature selections akin to perseveration in the motor domain. We speculate that these three mechanisms are implemented by distinct but interacting brain circuits and that the proposed formal account of feature-based stimulus selection will be important to understand how attentional subprocesses are implemented in primate brain networks.

  2. Low Dietary Vitamin D in Mid-Life Predicts Total Mortality in Men with Hypertension: The Honolulu Heart Program

    PubMed Central

    Kojima, Gotaro; Bell, Christina; Chen, Randi; Webster Ross, G.; Abbott, Robert D.; Launer, Lenore; Lui, Felix; Masaki, Kamal

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND Vitamin D deficiency was associated with total mortality in previous epidemiological studies. Little is known about effects of dietary vitamin D intake on mortality. We examined the association between mid-life dietary vitamin D intake and 45-year total mortality. METHODS The Honolulu Heart Program is a longitudinal cohort study of 8,006 Japanese-American men in Hawaii aged 45-68 at baseline (1965-68). Mid-life dietary vitamin D intake was calculated from 24-hour dietary recall using Nutritionist IV v3 software. We divided subjects into quartiles of dietary vitamin D. Total mortality data were available over 45 years through 2010. RESULTS Age-adjusted total mortality rates were higher in the lower quartiles of dietary vitamin D intake compared to the highest (p for trend=0.011). Using Cox regression, low dietary vitamin D was significantly associated with total mortality; quartile (Q) 1 hazard ratio (HR)=1.14, 95%CI=1.07-1.22, p<0.001; Q2 HR=1.11, 95%CI=1.04-1.18, p=0.002; and Q3 HR=1.08, 95%CI=1.01-1.15, p=0.027; Q4= reference. After adjusting for age, kilocalories, cardiovascular risk factors and prevalent chronic diseases, only Q2 remained significant (HR=1.08, 95%CI=1.00-1.15, p=0.037). Among hypertensive subjects only, those in lower 2 quartiles had higher total mortality; Q1 HR=1.12, 95%CI=1.01-1.25, p=0.039; and Q2 HR=1.13, 95%CI=1.02-1.26, p=0.025; compared to Q4. There was no significant relationship in subjects without hypertension. CONCLUSIONS Low dietary vitamin D intake in mid-life was a weak predictor of total mortality over 45 years of follow-up. We found a significant association between low dietary vitamin D intake and higher total mortality only among hypertensive subjects. Vitamin D may have cardioprotective effects. PMID:24724770

  3. Low Recent Protein Intake Predicts Cancer-Related Fatigue and Increased Mortality in Patients with Advanced Tumor Disease Undergoing Chemotherapy.

    PubMed

    Stobäus, Nicole; Müller, Manfred J; Küpferling, Susanne; Schulzke, Jörg-Dieter; Norman, Kristina

    2015-01-01

    Cancer patients, in general, suffer from anorexia hence diminished nutritional intake. In a prospective observational study, we investigated the impact of recent energy and protein intake on cancer-related fatigue and 6-month mortality in patients undergoing chemotherapy. Recent protein and energy intake was assessed by 24-h recall in 285 patients. Cancer-related fatigue was determined by Brief Fatigue Inventory, and fat free mass index (FFMI) was assessed with bioelectrical impedance analysis. Symptoms with the validated German version of European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Core Questionnaire (30 questions) and 6-month mortality was documented. Risk factors of cancer-related fatigue and predictors of mortality were investigated with logistic regression analysis and stepwise Cox regression analysis, respectively. Low protein intake (<1 g/kg body weight) was found in 66% of patients, who were characterized by higher age, weight, and body mass index. Recent protein intake emerged as the strongest contributor to cancer-related fatigue followed by nausea/vomiting, insomnia, and age. Reduced protein intake, male sex, number of comorbidities, and FFMI were identified as significant predictors for increased 6-month mortality. In conclusion, a low recent protein intake assessed by 24-h recall is associated with a more than twofold higher risk of cancer-related fatigue and 6-month mortality. Every effort should be taken to assess and guarantee proper nutritional intake in patients undergoing chemotherapy.

  4. Low Recent Protein Intake Predicts Cancer-Related Fatigue and Increased Mortality in Patients with Advanced Tumor Disease Undergoing Chemotherapy.

    PubMed

    Stobäus, Nicole; Müller, Manfred J; Küpferling, Susanne; Schulzke, Jörg-Dieter; Norman, Kristina

    2015-01-01

    Cancer patients, in general, suffer from anorexia hence diminished nutritional intake. In a prospective observational study, we investigated the impact of recent energy and protein intake on cancer-related fatigue and 6-month mortality in patients undergoing chemotherapy. Recent protein and energy intake was assessed by 24-h recall in 285 patients. Cancer-related fatigue was determined by Brief Fatigue Inventory, and fat free mass index (FFMI) was assessed with bioelectrical impedance analysis. Symptoms with the validated German version of European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Core Questionnaire (30 questions) and 6-month mortality was documented. Risk factors of cancer-related fatigue and predictors of mortality were investigated with logistic regression analysis and stepwise Cox regression analysis, respectively. Low protein intake (<1 g/kg body weight) was found in 66% of patients, who were characterized by higher age, weight, and body mass index. Recent protein intake emerged as the strongest contributor to cancer-related fatigue followed by nausea/vomiting, insomnia, and age. Reduced protein intake, male sex, number of comorbidities, and FFMI were identified as significant predictors for increased 6-month mortality. In conclusion, a low recent protein intake assessed by 24-h recall is associated with a more than twofold higher risk of cancer-related fatigue and 6-month mortality. Every effort should be taken to assess and guarantee proper nutritional intake in patients undergoing chemotherapy. PMID:25996582

  5. Gender Differences in the Self-Rated Health-Mortality Association: Is It Poor Self-Rated Health that Predicts Mortality or Excellent Self-Rated Health that Predicts Survival?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benyamini, Yael; Blumstein, Tzvia; Lusky, Ayala; Modan, Baruch

    2003-01-01

    Purpose: This study investigates gender differences in the association between self-rated health (SRH) and mortality. This association has been well-documented, but findings regarding gender differences are inconsistent. The specific objectives were (a) to examine these differences in a short and a long time frame, (b) to examine these differences…

  6. Does Sickness Absence Due to Psychiatric Disorder Predict Cause-specific Mortality? A 16-Year Follow-up of the GAZEL Occupational Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Melchior, Maria; Ferrie, Jane E.; Alexanderson, Kristina; Goldberg, Marcel; Kivimaki, Mika; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Vahtera, Jussi; Westerlund, Hugo; Zins, Marie; Head, Jenny

    2010-01-01

    Mental disorders are a frequent cause of morbidity and sickness absence in working populations; however, the status of psychiatric sickness absence as a predictor of mortality is not established. The authors tested the hypothesis that psychiatric sickness absence predicts mortality from leading medical causes. Data were derived from the French GAZEL cohort study (n = 19,962). Physician-certified sickness absence records were extracted from administrative files (1990–1992) and were linked to mortality data from France's national registry of mortality (1993–2008, mean follow-up: 15.5 years). Analyses were conducted by using Cox regression models. Compared with workers with no sickness absence, those absent due to psychiatric disorder were at increased risk of cause-specific mortality (hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for age, gender, occupational grade, other sickness absence—suicide: 6.01, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.07, 11.75; cardiovascular disease: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.10, 3.08; and smoking-related cancer: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.07, 2.53). After full adjustment, the excess risk of suicide remained significant (HR = 5.13, 95% CI: 2.60, 10.13) but failed to reach statistical significance for fatal cardiovascular disease (HR = 1.59, 95% CI: 0.95, 2.66) and smoking-related cancer (HR = 1.31, 95% CI: 0.85, 2.03). Psychiatric sickness absence records could help identify individuals at risk of premature mortality and serve to monitor workers’ health. PMID:20732935

  7. A low bioimpedance phase angle predicts a higher mortality and lower nutritional status in chronic dialysis patients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dumler Md, Francis

    2010-04-01

    Bioelectrical impedance analysis is an established technique for body composition analysis. The phase angle parameter, an index of body cell mass, tissue hydration, and membrane integrity, makes it suitable for assessing nutritional status and survivability. We evaluated the significance of a low phase angle value on nutritional status and mortality in 285 chronic dialysis patients during a longitudinal prospective observational study. Patients in the lower phase angle tertile had decreased body weight, body mass index, fat free mass, body cell mass, and lower serum albumin concentrations than those in the higher tertile (P<001). In addition, mortality rates were significantly lower (P=0.05) in the highest tertile patients. In conclusion, the phase angle is a useful method for identifying dialysis patients at high risk for malnutrition and increased mortality.

  8. Vitamin D Predicts All-Cause and Cardiac Mortality in Females with Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Comparison with Brain Natriuretic Peptide and High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein

    PubMed Central

    Naesgaard, Patrycja A.; León de la Fuente, Ricardo A.; Nilsen, Stein Tore; Woie, Leik; Aarsland, Torbjoern; Staines, Harry; Nilsen, Dennis W. T.

    2013-01-01

    Vitamin D may not only reflect disease but may also serve as a prognostic indicator. Our aim was to assess the gender-specific utility of vitamin D measured as 25-hydroxy-vitamin D [25(OH)D] to predict all-cause and cardiac death in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to compare its prognostic utility to brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP). Blood samples were harvested on admission in 982 patients. Forty percent were women (65.9 ± 12.6 years). Mortality was evaluated in quartiles of 25(OH)D, BNP, and hsCRP, respectively, during a 5-year follow-up, applying univariate and multivariate analyses. One hundred and seventy-three patients died; 78 were women. In 92 patients (37 women), death was defined as cardiac. In women, the univariate hazard ratio (HR) for total death of 25(OH)D in Quartile (Q) 2 versus Q1, Q3 versus Q1, and Q4 versus Q1 was 0.55 (95% CI 0.33–0.93), 0.29 (95% CI 0.15–0.55), and 0.13 (95% CI 0.06–0.32), respectively. In females, it was an independent predictor of total and cardiac death, whereas BNP and hsCRP were less gender-specific. No gender differences in 25(OH)D were noted in a reference material. Accordingly, vitamin D independently predicts mortality in females with suspected ACS. PMID:24349821

  9. Testosterone dynamics and psychopathic personality traits independently predict antagonistic behavior towards the perceived loser of a competitive interaction.

    PubMed

    Geniole, Shawn N; Busseri, Michael A; McCormick, Cheryl M

    2013-11-01

    Few studies have investigated the influence of changes in testosterone on subsequent competitive, antagonistic behavior in humans. Further, little is known about the extent to which such effects are moderated by personality traits. Here, we collected salivary measures of testosterone before and after a rigged competition. After the competition, participants were given the opportunity to act antagonistically against the competitor (allocate a low honorarium). We hypothesized that changes in testosterone throughout the competition would predict antagonistic behavior such that greater increases would be associated with the allocation of lower honorariums. Further, we investigated the extent to which personality traits related to psychopathy (fearless dominance, FD; self-centered impulsivity, SCI; and coldheartedness) moderated this relationship. In men (n=104), greater increases in testosterone and greater FD were associated with more antagonistic behavior, but testosterone concentrations did not interact with personality measures. In women (n=97), greater FD and SCI predicted greater antagonistic behavior, but there were no significant endocrine predictors or interactions with personality measures. In a secondary set of analyses, we found no support for the dual-hormone hypothesis that the relationship between baseline testosterone concentrations and behavior is moderated by cortisol concentrations. Thus, results are consistent with previous findings that in men, situation-specific testosterone reactivity rather than baseline endocrine function is a better predictor of future antagonistic behavior. The results are discussed with respect to the Challenge Hypothesis and the Biosocial Model of Status, and the possible mechanisms underlying the independent relations of testosterone and personality factors with antagonistic behavior.

  10. Comparison of AIMS65, Glasgow–Blatchford score, and Rockall score in a European series of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: performance when predicting in-hospital and delayed mortality

    PubMed Central

    Martínez-Cara, Juan G; Jiménez-Rosales, Rita; Úbeda-Muñoz, Margarita; de Hierro, Mercedes López; de Teresa, Javier

    2015-01-01

    Objective AIMS65 is a score designed to predict in-hospital mortality, length of stay, and costs of gastrointestinal bleeding. Our aims were to revalidate AIMS65 as predictor of inpatient mortality and to compare AIMS65’s performance with that of Glasgow–Blatchford (GBS) and Rockall scores (RS) with regard to mortality, and the secondary outcomes of a composite endpoint of severity, transfusion requirements, rebleeding, delayed (6-month) mortality, and length of stay. Methods The study included 309 patients. Clinical and biochemical data, transfusion requirements, endoscopic, surgical, or radiological treatments, and outcomes for 6 months after admission were collected. Clinical outcomes were in-hospital mortality, delayed mortality, rebleeding, composite endpoint, blood transfusions, and length of stay. Results In receiver-operating characteristic curve analyses, AIMS65, GBS, and RS were similar when predicting inpatient mortality (0.76 vs. 0.78 vs. 0.78). Regarding endoscopic intervention, AIMS65 and GBS were identical (0.62 vs. 0.62). AIMS65 was useless when predicting rebleeding compared to GBS or RS (0.56 vs. 0.70 vs. 0.71). GBS was better at predicting the need for transfusions. No patient with AIMS65 = 0, GBS ≤ 6, or RS ≤ 4 died. Considering the composite endpoint, an AIMS65 of 0 did not exclude high risk patients, but a GBS ≤ 1 or RS ≤ 2 did. The three scores were similar in predicting prolonged in-hospital stay. Delayed mortality was better predicted by AIMS65. Conclusion AIMS65 is comparable to GBS and RS in essential endpoints such as inpatient mortality, the need for endoscopic intervention and length of stay. GBS is a better score predicting rebleeding and the need for transfusion, but AIMS65 shows a better performance predicting delayed mortality. PMID:27403303

  11. Survey Criteria for Fibromyalgia Independently Predict Increased Postoperative Opioid Consumption after Lower Extremity Joint Arthroplasty: A Prospective, Observational Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Brummett, Chad M.; Janda, Allison M.; Schueller, Christa M.; Tsodikov, Alex; Morris, Michelle; Williams, David A.; Clauw, Daniel J.

    2013-01-01

    Background Variance in pain following total knee and hip arthroplasty may be due to a number of procedural and peripheral factors but also, in some individuals, to aberrant central pain processing as is described in conditions like fibromyalgia. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a prospective, observational cohort study of patients undergoing lower extremity joint arthroplasty. Methods 519 patients were preoperatively phenotyped using validated self-reported pain questionnaires, psychological measures, and health information. In addition to assessing factors previously found to be associated with poor outcomes in arthroplasty, participants also completed the American College of Rheumatology survey criteria for fibromyalgia. Previous studies have suggested that rather than being “present” or “absent,” features of fibromyalgia as measured by this instrument, occur over a wide continuum. Postoperative pain control was assessed by total postoperative opioid consumption. Results Preoperatively, patients with higher fibromyalgia survey scores were younger, more likely to be female, taking more opioids, reported higher pain severity, and had a more negative psychological profile. In the multivariate analysis, the fibromyalgia survey score, younger age, preoperative opioid use, knee (vs. hip), pain severity at baseline, and the anesthetic technique were all predictive of increased postoperative opioid consumption. Conclusions Using the survey criteria for fibromyalgia distinct phenotypic differences were found, and the measure was independently predictive of opioid consumption. This self-report measure may provide an additional simple means of predicting postoperative pain outcomes and analgesic requirements. Future studies are needed to determine whether tailored therapies can improve postoperative pain control in this population. PMID:24343289

  12. Circulating miR-21 as an independent predictive biomarker for chemoresistance in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Komatsu, Shuhei; Ichikawa, Daisuke; Kawaguchi, Tsutomu; Miyamae, Mahito; Okajima, Wataru; Ohashi, Takuma; Imamura, Taisuke; Kiuchi, Jun; Konishi, Hirotaka; Shiozaki, Atsushi; Fujiwara, Hitoshi; Okamoto, Kazuma; Otsuji, Eigo

    2016-01-01

    Only a few studies indentified the significance of circulating microRNAs in blood as a predictive biomarker for chemoresistance in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). In this study, we tested whether oncogenic miR-21 promoted chemoresistance in ESCC and served as a biomarker for predicting chemoresistance in plasma of patients with ESCC. All consecutive patients underwent the preoperative chemotherapy regimen (JCOG9907 trial) with cisplatin plus 5-fluorouracil. As a result, pretreatment plasma concentrations of miR-21 were significantly higher in ESCC patients with a low histopathological response than in those with a high histopathological response (P = 0.0416). Multivariate analysis revealed that a high pretreatment plasma concentration of miR-21 was an independent risk factor of chemoresistance (p = 0.0150; Odds Ratio 9.95 (range: 1.56-63.4)). The expression of miR-21 was also significantly higher in pretreatment ESCC tissues with a low histopathological response than in those with a high histopathological response (P = 0.0409). In vitro, although the growth of KYSE 170 ESCC cells transfected with the control mimics was markedly inhibited by the 5-fluorouracil or cisplatin treatment, the inhibitory effects of 5-FU (P < 0.05) or cisplatin (P < 0.05) were significantly reduced in KYSE170 cells that overexpressed miR-21. Taken together, the overexpression of miR-21 contributed to chemoresistance and circulating miR-21 in plasma of patients with ESCC could be a useful biomarker for predicting chemoresistance. PMID:27508093

  13. Chronotype and Improved Sleep Efficiency Independently Predict Depressive Symptom Reduction after Group Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Insomnia

    PubMed Central

    Bei, Bei; Ong, Jason C.; Rajaratnam, Shantha M.W.; Manber, Rachel

    2015-01-01

    Study Objectives: Cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (CBT-I) has been shown to improve both sleep and depressive symptoms, but predictors of depression outcome following CBT-I have not been well examined. This study investigated how chronotype (i.e., morningness-eveningness trait) and changes in sleep efficiency (SE) were related to changes in depressive symptoms among recipients of CBT-I. Methods: Included were 419 adult insomnia outpatients from a sleep disorders clinic (43.20% males, age mean ± standard deviation = 48.14 ± 14.02). All participants completed the Composite Scale of Morningness and attended at least 4 sessions of a 6-session group CBT-I. SE was extracted from sleep diary; depressive symptoms were assessed using the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) prior to (Baseline), and at the end (End) of intervention. Results: Multilevel structural equation modeling revealed that from Baseline to End, SE increased and BDI decreased significantly. Controlling for age, sex, BDI, and SE at Baseline, stronger evening chronotype and less improvement in SE significantly and uniquely predicted less reduction in BDI from Baseline to End. Chronotype did not predict improvement in SE. Conclusions: In an insomnia outpatient sample, SE and depressive symptoms improved significantly after a CBT-I group intervention. All chronotypes benefited from sleep improvement, but those with greater eveningness and/or less sleep improvement experienced less reduction in depressive symptom severity. This suggests that evening preference and insomnia symptoms may have distinct relationships with mood, raising the possibility that the effect of CBT-I on depressive symptoms could be enhanced by assessing and addressing circadian factors. Citation: Bei B, Ong JC, Rajaratnam SM, Manber R. Chronotype and improved sleep efficiency independently predict depressive symptom reduction after group cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia. J Clin Sleep Med 2015;11(9):1021–1027. PMID

  14. The Model for End-stage Liver Disease accurately predicts 90-day liver transplant wait-list mortality in Atlantic Canada

    PubMed Central

    Renfrew, Paul Douglas; Quan, Hude; Doig, Christopher James; Dixon, Elijah; Molinari, Michele

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine the generalizability of the predictions for 90-day mortality generated by Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and the serum sodium augmented MELD (MELDNa) to Atlantic Canadian adults with end-stage liver disease awaiting liver transplantation (LT). METHODS: The predictive accuracy of the MELD and the MELDNa was evaluated by measurement of the discrimination and calibration of the respective models’ estimates for the occurrence of 90-day mortality in a consecutive cohort of LT candidates accrued over a five-year period. Accuracy of discrimination was measured by the area under the ROC curves. Calibration accuracy was evaluated by comparing the observed and model-estimated incidences of 90-day wait-list failure for the total cohort and within quantiles of risk. RESULTS: The area under the ROC curve for the MELD was 0.887 (95% CI 0.705 to 0.978) – consistent with very good accuracy of discrimination. The area under the ROC curve for the MELDNa was 0.848 (95% CI 0.681 to 0.965). The observed incidence of 90-day wait-list mortality in the validation cohort was 7.9%, which was not significantly different from the MELD estimate of 6.6% (95% CI 4.9% to 8.4%; P=0.177) or the MELDNa estimate of 5.8% (95% CI 3.5% to 8.0%; P=0.065). Global goodness-of-fit testing found no evidence of significant lack of fit for either model (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 [df=3] for MELD 2.941, P=0.401; for MELDNa 2.895, P=0.414). CONCLUSION: Both the MELD and the MELDNa accurately predicted the occurrence of 90-day wait-list mortality in the study cohort and, therefore, are generalizable to Atlantic Canadians with end-stage liver disease awaiting LT. PMID:21876856

  15. Bayesian age-period-cohort models with versatile interactions and long-term predictions: mortality and population in Finland 1878-2050.

    PubMed

    Havulinna, Aki S

    2014-02-28

    Age-period-cohort (APC) models are widely used for studying time trends of disease incidence or mortality. Model identifiability has become less of a problem with Bayesian APC models. These models are usually based on random walk (RW1, RW2) smoothing priors. For long and complex time series and for long predicted periods, these models as such may not be adequate. We present two extensions for the APC models. First, we introduce flexible interactions between the age, period and cohort effects based on a two-dimensional conditional autoregressive smoothing prior on the age/period plane. Our second extension uses autoregressive integrated (ARI) models to provide reasonable long-term predictions. To illustrate the utility of our model framework, we provide stochastic predictions for the Finnish male and female population, in 2010-2050. For that, we first study and forecast all-cause male and female mortality in Finland, 1878-2050, showing that using an interaction term is needed for fitting and interpreting the observ