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  1. Hemoglobin Screening Independently Predicts All-Cause Mortality.

    PubMed

    Fulks, Michael; Dolan, Vera F; Stout, Robert L

    2015-01-01

    Objective .- Determine if the addition of hemoglobin testing improves risk prediction for life insurance applicants. Method .- Hemoglobin results for insurance applicants tested from 1993 to 2007, with vital status determined by Social Security Death Master File follow-up in 2011, were analyzed by age and sex with and without accounting for the contribution of other test results. Results .- Hemoglobin values ≤12.0 g/dL (and possibly ≤13.0 g/dL) in females age 50+ (but not age <50) and hemoglobin values ≤13.0 g/dL in all males are associated with progressively increasing mortality risk independent of the contribution of other test values. Increased risk is also noted for hemoglobin values >15.0 g/dL (and possibly >14.0 g/dL) for all females and for hemoglobin values >16.0 g/dL for males. Conclusion .- Hemoglobin testing can add additional independent risk assessment to that obtained from other laboratory testing, BP and build in this relatively healthy insurance applicant population. Multiple studies support this finding at older ages, but data (and the prevalence of diseases impacting hemoglobin levels) are limited at younger ages.

  2. Osteoprotegerin independently predicts mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease: the CLARICOR trial.

    PubMed

    Bjerre, Mette; Hilden, Jørgen; Kastrup, Jens; Skoog, Maria; Hansen, Jørgen F; Kolmos, Hans J; Jensen, Gorm B; Kjøller, Erik; Winkel, Per; Flyvbjerg, Allan; Gluud, Christian

    2014-11-01

    To elucidate the prognostic power of serum osteoprotegerin (OPG) in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD). Serum OPG levels were measured in the CLARICOR trial cohort of 4063 patients with stable CAD on blood samples drawn at randomization. The follow-up was 2.6 years for detailed cardiovascular events and 6 years for all-cause mortality. OPG levels were significantly increased in non-survivors (21%) compared to survivors (median [quartiles] 2092 ng/L [1636; 2800] compared to 1695 ng/L [1322; 2193, p < 0.0001]). The 2.6-year follow-up showed that OPG adds to the prediction of both cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in combination with clinical risk factors (HR [one log10 unit increase] 6.1 [95% CI 2.4-15.6, p = 0.0001]) and HR 6.5 [95% CI 3.4-12.5, p < 0.0001], respectively). Similar, in the 6-year follow-up, OPG was found to be a strong predictor for all-cause mortality. Importantly, OPG remained an independent predictor of mortality even after adjustment for both clinical and conventional cardiovascular risk markers (HR 2.5 [95% CI 1.6-3.9, p < 0.0001]). Serum OPG has a long-lasting independent predictive power as to all-cause mortality and cardiovascular death in patients with stable CAD.

  3. Could dysnatremias play a role as independent factors to predict mortality in surgical critically ill patients?

    PubMed Central

    Nicolini, Edson A.; Nunes, Roosevelt S.; Santos, Gabriela V.; da Silva, Silvana Lia; Carreira, Mariana M.; Pellison, Fernanda G.; Menegueti, Mayra G.; Auxiliadora-Martins, Maria; Bellissimo-Rodrigues, Fernando; Feres, Marcus A.; Basile-Filho, Anibal

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Several studies have demonstrated the impact of dysnatremias on mortality of intensive care unit (ICU) patients. The objective of this study was to assess whether dysnatremia is an independent factor to predict mortality in surgical critically ill patients admitted to ICU in postoperative phase. One thousand five hundred and ninety-nine surgical patients (58.8% males; mean age of 60.6 ± 14.4 years) admitted to the ICU in the postoperative period were retrospectively studied. The patients were classified according to their serum sodium levels (mmol/L) at admission as normonatremia (135–145), hyponatremia (<135), and hypernatremia (>145). APACHE II, SAPS III, and SOFA were recorded. The capability of each index to predict mortality of ICU and hospital mortality of patients was analyzed by multiple logistic regression. Hyponatremia did not have an influence on mortality in the ICU with a relative risk (RR) = 0.95 (0.43–2.05) and hospital mortality of RR = 1.40 (0.75–2.59). However, this association was greater in patients with hypernatremia mortality in the ICU (RR = 3.33 [95% confidence interval, CI 1.58–7.0]) and also in hospital mortality (RR = 2.9 [ 95% CI = 1.51–5.55). The pairwise comparison of ROC curves among the different prognostic indexes (APACHE II, SAPS III, SOFA) did not show statistical significance. The comparison of these indexes with serum sodium levels for general population, hyponatremia, and normonatremia was statistically significant (P < .001). For hypernatremia, the AUC and 95% CI for APACHE II, SAPS III, SOFA, and serum sodium level were 0.815 (0.713–0.892), 0.805 (0.702–0.885), 0.885 (0.794–0.945), and 0.663 (0.549–0.764), respectively. The comparison among the prognostic indexes was not statistically significant. Only SOFA score had a statistic difference compared with hypernatremia (P < .02). The serum sodium levels at admission, especially hypernatremia, may be used as an

  4. Claudication, in contrast to angina pectoris, independently predicts mortality risk in the general population.

    PubMed

    Kieback, Arne G; Lorbeer, Roberto; Wallaschofski, Henri; Ittermann, Till; Völzke, Henry; Felix, Stephan; Dörr, Marcus

    2012-03-01

    The aim of our analyses was to investigate whether claudication and angina pectoris, each defined and based on the answer to a single question, are predictive of future mortality. The study population consisted of 3995 subjects selected from the population-based Study of Health In Pomerania (SHIP). Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis were used to analyze the association of angina pectoris and claudication with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality adjusted for major cardiovascular risk factors. At baseline, 417 individuals had symptoms of angina pectoris, and 323 had symptoms of claudication. During a median follow-up of 8.5 years, 277 individuals died. Individuals with claudication had a higher fully-adjusted all-cause mortality rate (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.79; 95 % CI 1.34, 2.39, p < 0.001) and a higher sex- and age-adjusted cardiovascular mortality rate (HR 1.76; 95 % CI 1.03, 2.99, p = 0.038) compared to subjects without claudication. In contrast, subjects with angina pectoris had neither an elevated fully-adjusted all-cause mortality rate (HR 1.15; 95 % CI 0.82, 1.61, p = 0.413) nor sex- and age-adjusted cardiovascular mortality rate (HR 0.71; 95 % CI 0.34, 1.48, p = 0.363) compared to those without this symptom. Claudication, in contrast to angina pectoris, is a strong, independent predictor of all-cause mortality.

  5. Post-Exercise Heart Rate Recovery Independently Predicts Mortality Risk in Patients with Chronic Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Tang, Yi-Da; Dewland, Thomas A.; Wencker, Detlef; Katz, Stuart D.

    2009-01-01

    Background Post-exercise heart rate recovery (HRR) is an index of parasympathetic function associated with clinical outcomes in populations with and without documented coronary heart disease. Decreased parasympathetic activity is thought to be associated with disease progression in chronic heart failure (HF), but an independent association between post-exercise HRR and clinical outcomes among such patients has not been established. Methods and Results We measured HRR (calculated as the difference between heart rate at peak exercise and after 1 minute of recovery) in 202 HF subjects and recorded 17 mortality and 15 urgent transplantation outcome events over 624 days of follow-up. Reduced post-exercise HRR was independently associated with increased event risk after adjusting for other exercise-derived variables (peak oxygen uptake and VE/VCO2 slope), for the Heart Failure Survival Score (adjusted HR 1.09 for one beat/min reduction, 95% CI 1.05-1.13, p<0.0001) and the Seattle Heart Failure Model score (adjusted HR 1.08 for one beat/min reduction, 95% CI 1.05-1.12, p<0.0001). Subjects in the lowest risk tertile based on post-exercise HRR (≥30 beats/min) had low risk of events irrespective of the risk predicted by the survival scores. In a subgroup of 15 subjects, reduced post-exercise HRR was associated with increased serum markers of inflammation (interleukin-6 r=0.58, p=0.024, high sensitivity C-reactive protein r=0.66, p=0.007). Conclusions Post-exercise HRR predicts mortality risk in patients with HF and provides prognostic information independent of previously described survival models. Pathophysiologic links between autonomic function and inflammation may be mediators of this association. PMID:19944361

  6. Post-exercise heart rate recovery independently predicts mortality risk in patients with chronic heart failure.

    PubMed

    Tang, Yi-Da; Dewland, Thomas A; Wencker, Detlef; Katz, Stuart D

    2009-12-01

    Post-exercise heart rate recovery (HRR) is an index of parasympathetic function associated with clinical outcomes in populations with and without documented coronary heart disease. Decreased parasympathetic activity is thought to be associated with disease progression in chronic heart failure (HF), but an independent association between post-exercise HRR and clinical outcomes among such patients has not been established. We measured HRR (calculated as the difference between heart rate at peak exercise and after 1 minute of recovery) in 202 HF subjects and recorded 17 mortality and 15 urgent transplantation outcome events over 624 days of follow-up. Reduced post-exercise HRR was independently associated with increased event risk after adjusting for other exercise-derived variables (peak oxygen uptake and change in minute ventilation per change in carbon dioxide production slope), for the Heart Failure Survival Score (adjusted HR 1.09 for 1 beat/min reduction, 95% CI 1.05-1.13, P < .0001), and the Seattle Heart Failure Model score (adjusted HR 1.08 for one beat/min reduction, 95% CI 1.05-1.12, P < .0001). Subjects in the lowest risk tertile based on post-exercise HRR (>or=30 beats/min) had low risk of events irrespective of the risk predicted by the survival scores. In a subgroup of 15 subjects, reduced post-exercise HRR was associated with increased serum markers of inflammation (interleukin-6, r = 0.58, P = .024; high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, r = 0.66, P = .007). Post-exercise HRR predicts mortality risk in patients with HF and provides prognostic information independent of previously described survival models. Pathophysiologic links between autonomic function and inflammation may be mediators of this association.

  7. CIBMTR Chronic GVHD Risk Score Predicts Mortality in an Independent Validation Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Arora, Mukta; Hemmer, Michael T.; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Klein, John P.; Cutler, Corey S.; Urbano-Ispizua, Alvaro; Couriel, Daniel R.; Alousi, Amin M.; Gale, Robert Peter; Inamoto, Yoshihiro; Weisdorf, Daniel J.; Li, Peigang; Antin, Joseph H.; Bolwell, Brian J.; Boyiadzis, Michael; Cahn, Jean-Yves; Cairo, Mitchell S.; Isola, Luis M.; Jacobsohn, David A.; Jagasia, Madan; Klumpp, Thomas R.; Petersdorf, Effie W.; Santarone, Stella; Schouten, Harry C.; Wingard, John R.; Spellman, Stephen R.; Pavletic, Steven Z.; Lee, Stephanie J.; Horowitz, Mary M.; Flowers, Mary E.D.

    2015-01-01

    We previously reported a risk score that predicted mortality in patients with chronic graft-versus-host disease (CGVHD) after hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HCT) between 1995–2004 and reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Registry (CIBMTR). We sought to validate this risk score in an independent CIBMTR cohort of 1128 patients with CGVHD transplanted between 2005–2007 using the same inclusion criteria and risk-score calculations. According to the sum of the overall risk score (range 1 to 12), patients were assigned to 4 risk-groups (RGs): RG1 (0–2), RG2 (3–6), RG3 (7–8) and RG4 (9–10). RG3 and 4 were combined as RG4 comprised only 1% of the total cohort. Cumulative incidences of non relapse mortality (NRM) and probability of overall survival (OS) were significantly different between each RG (all p<0.01). NRM and OS at five years after CGVHD for each RG were 17% and 72% in RG1, 26% and 53% in RG2, and 44% and 25% in RG 3, respectively (all p<0.01). Our study validates the prognostic value of the CIBMTR CGVHD RGs for OS and NRM in a contemporary transplant population. The CIBMTR CGVHD RGs can be used to predict major outcomes, tailor treatment planning, and enrollment in clinical trials. PMID:25528390

  8. Female sex independently predicts mortality after thoracic endovascular aortic repair for intact descending thoracic aortic aneurysms.

    PubMed

    Deery, Sarah E; Shean, Katie E; Wang, Grace J; Black, James H; Upchurch, Gilbert R; Giles, Kristina A; Patel, Virendra I; Schermerhorn, Marc L

    2017-07-01

    independently predictive of 30-day mortality (odds ratio, 1.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.1, P < .01) and long-term mortality (hazard ratio, 1.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.6; P = .02). Even after adjusting for differences in age and comorbidities, female patients have higher perioperative mortality and lower long-term survival after TEVAR. These findings, along with the rupture risk by sex, should be considered by clinicians in determining the timing of intervention. Copyright © 2017 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Early warning score independently predicts adverse outcome and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

    PubMed

    Jones, Michael J; Neal, Christopher P; Ngu, Wee Sing; Dennison, Ashley R; Garcea, Giuseppe

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of established scoring systems with early warning scores in a large cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis. In patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, Modified Glasgow Score, Ranson criteria, APACHE II scores and early warning score (EWS) were recorded for the first 72 h following admission. These variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors, between patients with mild/moderate and severe pancreatitis (based on the 2012 Atlanta Classification) and between patients with a favourable or adverse outcome. A total of 629 patients were identified. EWS was the best predictor of adverse outcome amongst all of the assessed variables (area under curve (AUC) values 0.81, 0.84 and 0.83 for days 1, 2 and 3, respectively) and was the most accurate predictor of mortality on both days 2 and 3 (AUC values of 0.88 and 0.89, respectively). Multivariable analysis revealed that an EWS ≥2 was independently associated with severity of pancreatitis, adverse outcome and mortality. This study confirms the usefulness of EWS in predicting the outcome of acute pancreatitis. It should become the mainstay of risk stratification in patients with acute pancreatitis.

  10. Phase angle obtained by bioelectrical impedance analysis independently predicts mortality in patients with cirrhosis

    PubMed Central

    Belarmino, Giliane; Gonzalez, Maria Cristina; Torrinhas, Raquel S; Sala, Priscila; Andraus, Wellington; D’Albuquerque, Luiz Augusto Carneiro; Pereira, Rosa Maria R; Caparbo, Valéria F; Ravacci, Graziela R; Damiani, Lucas; Heymsfield, Steven B; Waitzberg, Dan L

    2017-01-01

    AIM To evaluate the prognostic value of the phase angle (PA) obtained from bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) for mortality prediction in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS In total, 134 male cirrhotic patients prospectively completed clinical evaluations and nutritional assessment by BIA to obtain PAs during a 36-mo follow-up period. Mortality risk was analyzed by applying the PA cutoff point recently proposed as a malnutrition marker (PA ≤ 4.9°) in Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox regression models. RESULTS The patients were divided into two groups according to the PA cutoff value (PA > 4.9°, n = 73; PA ≤ 4.9°, n = 61). Weight, height, and body mass index were similar in both groups, but patients with PAs > 4.9° were younger and had higher mid-arm muscle circumference, albumin, and handgrip-strength values and lower severe ascites and encephalopathy incidences, interleukin (IL)-6/IL-10 ratios and C-reactive protein levels than did patients with PAs ≤ 4.9° (P ≤ 0.05). Forty-eight (35.80%) patients died due to cirrhosis, with a median of 18 mo (interquartile range, 3.3-25.6 mo) follow-up until death. Thirty-one (64.60%) of these patients were from the PA ≤ 4.9° group. PA ≤ 4.9° significantly and independently affected the mortality model adjusted for Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score and age (hazard ratio = 2.05, 95%CI: 1.11-3.77, P = 0.021). In addition, Kaplan-Meier curves showed that patients with PAs ≤ 4.9° were significantly more likely to die. CONCLUSION In male patients with cirrhosis, the PA ≤ 4.9° cutoff was associated independently with mortality and identified patients with worse metabolic, nutritional, and disease progression profiles. The PA may be a useful and reliable bedside tool to evaluate prognosis in cirrhosis. PMID:28321276

  11. The Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index Independently Predicts Mortality in Diabetic Foot Ulcers Patients Undergoing Amputations

    PubMed Central

    Xie, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Hailing; Ye, Tingting; Ge, Shengjie; Zhuo, Ruyi

    2017-01-01

    Objective. Patients with diabetic foot ulcers undergoing amputations have poor prognosis. Malnutrition usually occurs in this population and is associated with increased risk of mortality. The geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) is a widely used, simple, and well-established tool to assess nutritional risk. The purpose of this study was to assess the association between GNRI and all-cause mortality in diabetic foot ulcers patients undergoing minor or major amputations. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study including 271 adult patients. Patients were divided into two groups according to a GNRI cutoff value of 92, and characteristics and mortality were compared between the two groups. Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed to explore the association between GNRI and mortality. Result. GNRI (p < 0.001), age (p < 0.001), and eGFR (p = 0.002) were independent predictors of mortality. Among a subgroup of 230 patients with minor amputation, increased age (p < 0.001), coronary artery disease (p = 0.030), and increased GNRI (p < 0.001) were major risk factors. Conclusion. GNRI on admission might be a novel clinical predictor for the incidence of death in patients with diabetic foot ulcers who were undergoing amputations. PMID:28164133

  12. High blood glucose independent of pre-existing diabetic status predicts mortality in patients initiating peritoneal dialysis therapy.

    PubMed

    Chung, Sung Hee; Han, Dong Cheol; Noh, Hyunjin; Jeon, Jin Seok; Kwon, Soon Hyo; Lindholm, Bengt; Lee, Hi Bahl

    2015-06-01

    Poor glycemic control associates with increased mortality in diabetic (DM) dialysis patients, but it is less well established whether high blood glucose (BG) independent of pre-existing diabetic status associates with mortality in dialysis patients. We assessed factors affecting BG at the start of peritoneal dialysis (PD) and its mortality-predictive impact in Korean PD patients. In 174 PD patients (55 % males, 56 % DM), BG, nutritional status, comorbidity (CMD), and residual renal function (RRF) were assessed in conjunction with dialysis initiation. Determinants of BG and its association with mortality after a mean follow-up period of 30 ± 24 months were analyzed. On Cox proportional hazards analysis comprising all patients, old age, high CMD score, presence of protein energy wasting, and low serum albumin (Salb) concentration were independent predictors of mortality but not a high-BG level, while in patients without pre-existing diabetic status, high BG, together with old age and high CMD score, was an independent predictor of mortality. After adjustment for age, CMD score, and Salb, the risk ratio for mortality increased by 12 % per 1 mg/dL increase in BG in the non-DM patients. Patient survival in patients without pre-existing diabetic status with high BG did not differ from DM patients, but the survival of patients with high BG was significantly lower than in patients with low BG. In patients without pre-existing diabetic status, in multiple regression analysis, high BG at initiation of PD associated with high age, high body mass index, and low RRF. High blood glucose at initiation of PD associated with an increased mortality risk in PD patients without pre-existing diabetic status suggesting that blood glucose monitoring and surveillance of factors contributing to poor glycemic control are warranted in patients initiating PD therapy.

  13. Predicting Mortality and Independence at Discharge in the Aging Traumatic Brain Injury Population Using Data Available at Admission.

    PubMed

    Miller, Preston R; Chang, Michael C; Hoth, J Jason; Hildreth, Amy N; Wolfe, Stacey Q; Gross, Jessica L; Martin, R Shayn; Carter, Jeffrey E; Meredith, J Wayne; D'Agostino, Ralph

    2017-04-01

    Aging worsens outcome in traumatic brain injury (TBI), but available studies may not provide accurate outcomes predictions due to confounding associated injuries. Our goal was to develop a predictive tool using variables available at admission to predict outcomes related to severity of brain injury in aging patients. Characteristics and outcomes of blunt trauma patients, aged 50 or older, with isolated TBI, in the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB), were evaluated. Equations predicting survival and independence at discharge (IDC) were developed and validated using patients from our trauma registry, comparing predicted with actual outcomes. Logistic regression for survival and IDC was performed in 57,588 patients using age, sex, Glasgow Coma Scale score (GCS), and Revised Trauma Score (RTS). All variables were independent predictors of outcome. Two models were developed using these data. The first included age, sex, and GCS. The second substituted RTS for GCS. C statistics from the models for survival and IDC were 0.90 and 0.82 in the GCS model. In the RTS model, C statistics were 0.80 and 0.67. The use of GCS provided better discrimination and was chosen for further examination. Using a predictive equation derived from the logistic regression model, outcome probabilities were calculated for 894 similar patients from our trauma registry (January 2012 to March 2016). The survival and IDC models both showed excellent discrimination (p < 0.0001). Survival and IDC generally decreased by decade: age 50 to 59 (80% IDC, 6.5% mortality), 60 to 69 (82% IDC, 7.0% mortality), 70 to 79 (76% IDC, 8.9% mortality), and 80 to 89 (67% IDC, 13.4% mortality). These models can assist in predicting the probability of survival and IDC for aging patients with TBI. This provides important data for loved ones of these patients when addressing goals of care. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Plasma Soluble CD163 Level Independently Predicts All-Cause Mortality in HIV-1-Infected Individuals.

    PubMed

    Knudsen, Troels Bygum; Ertner, Gideon; Petersen, Janne; Møller, Holger Jon; Moestrup, Søren K; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper; Kronborg, Gitte; Benfield, Thomas

    2016-10-15

    CD163, a monocyte- and macrophage-specific scavenger receptor, is shed as soluble CD163 (sCD163) during the proinflammatory response. Here, we assessed the association between plasma sCD163 levels and progression to AIDS and all-cause mortality among individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV). Plasma sCD163 levels were measured in 933 HIV-infected individuals. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with mortality were computed by Cox proportional hazards regression. At baseline, 86% were receiving antiretroviral treatment, 73% had plasma a HIV RNA level of <50 copies/mL, and the median CD4(+) T-cell count was 503 cells/µL. During 10.5 years of follow-up, 167 (17.9%) died. Plasma sCD163 levels were higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors (4.92 mg/L [interquartile range {IQR}, 3.29-8.65 mg/L] vs 3.16 mg/L [IQR, 2.16-4.64 mg/L]; P = .0001). The cumulative incidence of death increased with increasing plasma sCD163 levels, corresponding to a 6% or 35% increased risk of death for each milligram per liter or quartile increase, respectively, in baseline plasma sCD163 level (adjusted HR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.03-1.09] and 1.35 [95% CI, 1.13-1.63], respectively). Plasma sCD163 was an independent marker of all-cause mortality in a cohort of HIV-infected individuals, suggesting that monocyte/macrophage activation may play a role in HIV pathogenesis and be a target of intervention. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Cardiothoracic ratio within the “normal” range independently predicts mortality in patients undergoing coronary angiography

    PubMed Central

    Zaman, M Justin S; Sanders, Julie; Crook, Angela M; Feder, Gene; Shipley, Martin; Timmis, Adam; Hemingway, Harry

    2007-01-01

    Objective To determine whether cardiothoracic ratio (CTR), within the range conventionally considered normal, predicted prognosis in patients undergoing coronary angiography. Design Cohort study with a median of 7‐years follow‐up. Setting Consecutive patients undergoing coronary angiography at Barts and The London National Health Service (NHS) Trust. Subjects 1005 patients with CTRs measured by chest radiography, and who subsequently underwent coronary angiography. Of these patients, 7.3% had a CTR ⩾0.5 and were excluded from the analyses. Outcomes All‐cause mortality and coronary event (non‐fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death). Adjustments were made for age, left ventricular dysfunction, ACE inhibitor treatment, body mass index, number of diseased coronary vessels and past coronary artery bypass graft. Results The risk of death was increased among patients with a CTR in the upper part of the normal range. In total, 94 (18.9%) of those with a CTR below the median of 0.42 died compared with 120 (27.8%) of those with a CTR between 0.42 and 0.49 (log rank test p<0.001). After adjusting for potential confounders, this increased risk remained (adjusted HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.05). CTR, at values below 0.5, was linearly related to the risk of coronary event (test for trend p = 0.024). Conclusion : In patients undergoing coronary angiography, CTR between 0.42 and 0.49 was associated with higher mortality than in patients with smaller hearts. There was evidence of a continuous increase in risk with higher CTR. These findings, along with those in healthy populations, question the conventional textbook cut‐off point of ⩾0.5 being an abnormal CTR. PMID:17164481

  16. Prediction models for the mortality risk in chronic dialysis patients: a systematic review and independent external validation study.

    PubMed

    Ramspek, Chava L; Voskamp, Pauline Wm; van Ittersum, Frans J; Krediet, Raymond T; Dekker, Friedo W; van Diepen, Merel

    2017-01-01

    In medicine, many more prediction models have been developed than are implemented or used in clinical practice. These models cannot be recommended for clinical use before external validity is established. Though various models to predict mortality in dialysis patients have been published, very few have been validated and none are used in routine clinical practice. The aim of the current study was to identify existing models for predicting mortality in dialysis patients through a review and subsequently to externally validate these models in the same large independent patient cohort, in order to assess and compare their predictive capacities. A systematic review was performed following the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. To account for missing data, multiple imputation was performed. The original prediction formulae were extracted from selected studies. The probability of death per model was calculated for each individual within the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis (NECOSAD). The predictive performance of the models was assessed based on their discrimination and calibration. In total, 16 articles were included in the systematic review. External validation was performed in 1,943 dialysis patients from NECOSAD for a total of seven models. The models performed moderately to well in terms of discrimination, with C-statistics ranging from 0.710 (interquartile range 0.708-0.711) to 0.752 (interquartile range 0.750-0.753) for a time frame of 1 year. According to the calibration, most models overestimated the probability of death. Overall, the performance of the models was poorer in the external validation than in the original population, affirming the importance of external validation. Floege et al's models showed the highest predictive performance. The present study is a step forward in the use of a prediction model as a useful tool for nephrologists, using evidence-based medicine that

  17. A New Body Shape Index Predicts Mortality Hazard Independently of Body Mass Index

    PubMed Central

    Krakauer, Nir Y.; Krakauer, Jesse C.

    2012-01-01

    Background Obesity, typically quantified in terms of Body Mass Index (BMI) exceeding threshold values, is considered a leading cause of premature death worldwide. For given body size (BMI), it is recognized that risk is also affected by body shape, particularly as a marker of abdominal fat deposits. Waist circumference (WC) is used as a risk indicator supplementary to BMI, but the high correlation of WC with BMI makes it hard to isolate the added value of WC. Methods and Findings We considered a USA population sample of 14,105 non-pregnant adults () from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999–2004 with follow-up for mortality averaging 5 yr (828 deaths). We developed A Body Shape Index (ABSI) based on WC adjusted for height and weight: ABSI had little correlation with height, weight, or BMI. Death rates increased approximately exponentially with above average baseline ABSI (overall regression coefficient of per standard deviation of ABSI [95% confidence interval: –]), whereas elevated death rates were found for both high and low values of BMI and WC. (–) of the population mortality hazard was attributable to high ABSI, compared to (–) for BMI and (–) for WC. The association of death rate with ABSI held even when adjusted for other known risk factors including smoking, diabetes, blood pressure, and serum cholesterol. ABSI correlation with mortality hazard held across the range of age, sex, and BMI, and for both white and black ethnicities (but not for Mexican ethnicity), and was not weakened by excluding deaths from the first 3 yr of follow-up. Conclusions Body shape, as measured by ABSI, appears to be a substantial risk factor for premature mortality in the general population derivable from basic clinical measurements. ABSI expresses the excess risk from high WC in a convenient form that is complementary to BMI and to other known risk factors. PMID:22815707

  18. Quality of life independently predicts long-term mortality but not vascular events: the Northern Manhattan Study.

    PubMed

    Liang, John W; Cheung, Ying Kuen; Willey, Joshua Z; Moon, Yeseon P; Sacco, Ralph L; Elkind, Mitchell S V; Dhamoon, Mandip S

    2017-08-01

    Cardiovascular disease is a major contributor to morbidity and mortality, and prevention relies on accurate identification of those at risk. Studies of the association between quality of life (QOL) and mortality and vascular events incompletely accounted for depression, cognitive status, social support, and functional status, all of which have an impact on vascular outcomes. We hypothesized that baseline QOL is independently associated with long-term mortality in a large, multi-ethnic urban cohort. In the prospective, population-based Northern Manhattan Study, Spitzer QOL index (SQI, range 0-10, with ten signifying the highest QOL) was assessed at baseline. Participants were followed over a median 11 years for stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and vascular and non-vascular death. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression estimated hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval (HR, 95% CI) for each outcome, with SQI as the main predictor, dichotomized at 10, adjusting for baseline demographics, vascular risk factors, history of cancer, social support, cognitive status, depression, and functional status. Among 3298 participants, mean age was 69.7 + 10.3 years; 1795 (54.5%) had SQI of 10. In fully adjusted models, SQI of 10 (compared to SQI <10) was associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.72-0.90), vascular death (0.81, 0.69-0.97), non-vascular death (0.78, 0.67-0.91), and stroke or MI or death (0.82, 0.74-0.91). In fully adjusted competing risk models, there was no association with stroke (0.93, 0.74-1.17), MI (0.98, 0.75-1.28), and stroke or MI (1.03, 0.86-1.24). Results were consistent when SQI was analyzed continuously. In this large population-based cohort, highest QOL was inversely associated with long-term mortality, vascular and non-vascular, independently of baseline primary vascular risk factors, social support, cognition, depression, and functional status. QOL was not associated with non-fatal vascular events.

  19. Predicting mortality in stroke.

    PubMed

    Bhalla, A; Gupta, O P; Gupta, S B

    2002-09-01

    Physicians are faced with the task of predicting the immediate and long term outcome in stroke patients. It is also important to efficiently and optimally utilize resources. We used APACHE III scoring system or predicting in hospital outcome in patients with stroke. We found it to be sensitive (>90%) and resonably specific (73%) in predicting short term, in-hospital mortality, in our study group.

  20. Mortality in incident haemodialysis patients: time-dependent haemoglobin levels and erythropoiesis-stimulating agent dose are independent predictive factors in the ANSWER study.

    PubMed

    Fort, Joan; Cuevas, Xavier; García, Fernando; Pérez-García, Rafael; Lladós, Fina; Lozano, Javier; Martín-Malo, Alejandro

    2010-08-01

    Although the association between low haemoglobin levels and mortality is well established in haemodialysis patients, data are conflicting regarding levels >12 g/dl. In addition, divergent results have been reported on the relation between erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) and mortality. This was a multicentre, observational, prospective, 24-month study, which recruited Spanish incident haemodialysis patients (N = 2310). Univariate and multivariate time-dependent Cox regression models examined the longitudinal association of mortality with haemoglobin and ESA dose; adjustment was made for iron deficiency and other confounders. After adjusting for age, functional status, body mass index, albumin levels, catheter as vascular access, previous history of cardiovascular disease, neoplasia, and ESA dose, mortality decreased with increasing haemoglobin. Adjusted hazard ratios relative to the reference category (11-12 g/dl) and 95% confidence intervals were: 1.36 (1.01-1.86) for 13 g/dl. Independent of haemoglobin, patients on sustained ESA doses of 1-4000 IU/week and 8001-16 000 IU/week had better survival than non-treated (reference) patients, with adjusted hazard ratios of 0.61 (0.41-0.90) and 0.68 (0.49-0.94), respectively. No significant difference was found for doses of 4001-8000 IU/week or >16,000 IU/week, adjusted hazard ratios of 0.87 (0.63-1.20) and 0.89 (0.63-1.28), respectively. Higher haemoglobin levels are associated with lower mortality in Spanish incident haemodialysis patients, regardless of ESA dose, comorbidity, vascular access or malnutrition. No increase in mortality occurs for high ESA doses, independent of haemoglobin levels.

  1. Independent predictors of mortality following spine surgery.

    PubMed

    Desai, Rupen; Nayar, Gautam; Suresh, Visakha; Wang, Timothy Y; Loriaux, Daniel; Martin, Joel R; Gottfried, Oren N

    2016-07-01

    We investigated the effect of preoperative patient demographics and operative factors on mortality in the 30day postoperative period after spine surgery. Postoperative mortality from surgical interventions has significantly decreased with progressive improvement in surgical techniques and patient selection. Well-studied preoperative risk factors include age, obesity, emphysema, clotting disorders, renal failure, and cardiovascular disease. However, the prognostic implications of such risk factors after spine surgery specifically remain unknown. The medical records of all consecutive patients undergoing spine surgery from 2008-2010 at our institution were reviewed. Patient demographics, comorbidities, indication for operation, surgical details, postoperative complications, and mortalities were collected. The association between preoperative demographics or surgical details and postoperative mortality was assessed via logistic regression analysis. All 1344 consecutive patients (1153 elective, 191 emergency) met inclusion criteria for the study; 19 (1.4%) patients died in the 30days following surgery. Multivariable logistic regression found several predictive factors of mortality for all spine surgery patients: operation in the cervical area (odds ratio [OR]: 7.279, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.37-42.83, p=0.02), postoperative sepsis (OR: 5.75, 95% CI: 1.16-26.38, p=0.03), operation for neoplastic (OR: 7.68, 95% CI: 1.53-42.71, p=0.01) or traumatic (OR: 13.76, 95% CI: 2.40-88.68, p=0.03) etiology, and age as defined as a continuous variable (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01-1.10, p=0.03). This study demonstrates predictive factors to help identify and evaluate patients who are at higher risk for mortality from spinal surgery, and potentially devise methods to reduce this risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Red blood cell distribution width independently predicts medium-term mortality and major adverse cardiac events after an acute coronary syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Turcato, Gianni; Serafini, Valentina; Dilda, Alice; Bovo, Chiara; Caruso, Beatrice; Ricci, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Background The value of red blood cell distribution width (RDW), a simple and inexpensive measure of anisocytosis, has been associated with the outcome of many human chronic disorders. Therefore, this retrospective study was aimed to investigate whether RDW may be associated with medium-term mortality and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) after an acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Methods A total number of 979 patients diagnosed with ACS were enrolled from June 2014 to November 2014, and followed-up until June 2015. Results The RDW value in patients with 3-month MACE and in those who died was significantly higher than that of patients without 3-month MACE (13.3% vs. 14.0%; P<0.001) and those who were still alive at the end of follow-up (13.4% vs. 14.4%; P<0.001). In univariate analysis, RDW was found to be associated with 3-month MACE [odds ratio (OR), 1.70; 95% CI, 1.44–2.00, P<0.001]. In multivariate analysis, RDW remained independently associated with 3-month MACE (adjusted OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.19–1.55; P<0.001) and death (adjusted OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.05–1.71; P=0.020). The accuracy of RDW for predicting 3-month MACE was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.66–0.72; P<0.001). The most efficient discriminatory RDW value was 14.8%, which was associated with 3.8 (95% CI, 2.6–5.7; P<0.001) higher risk of 3-month MACE. Patients with RDW >14.8% exhibited a significantly short survival than those with RDW ≤14.8% (331 vs. 465 days; P<0.001). Conclusions The results of this study confirm that RDW may be a valuable, easy and inexpensive parameter for stratifying the medium-term risk in patients with ACS. PMID:27500155

  3. HDAC1 and HDAC2 independently predict mortality in hepatocellular carcinoma by a competing risk regression model in a Southeast Asian population

    PubMed Central

    LER, SER YENG; LEUNG, CAROL HO WING; KHIN, LAY WAI; LU, GUO-DONG; SALTO-TELLEZ, MANUEL; HARTMAN, MIKAEL; IAU, PHILIP TSAU CHOONG; YAP, CELESTIAL T.; HOOI, SHING CHUAN

    2015-01-01

    Histone deacetylases (HDACs) are enzymes involved in transcriptional repression. We aimed to examine the significance of HDAC1 and HDAC2 gene expression in the prediction of recurrence and survival in 156 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among a South East Asian population who underwent curative surgical resection in Singapore. We found that HDAC1 and HDAC2 were upregulated in the majority of HCC tissues. The presence of HDAC1 in tumor tissues was correlated with poor tumor differentiation. Notably, HDAC1 expression in adjacent non-tumor hepatic tissues was correlated with the presence of satellite nodules and multiple lesions, suggesting that HDAC1 upregulation within the field of HCC may contribute to tumor spread. Using competing risk regression analysis, we found that increased cancer-specific mortality was significantly associated with HDAC2 expression. Mortality was also increased with high HDAC1 expression. In the liver cancer cell lines, HEP3B, HEPG2, PLC5, and a colorectal cancer cell line, HCT116, the combined knockdown of HDAC1 and HDAC2 increased cell death and reduced cell proliferation as well as colony formation. In contrast, knockdown of either HDAC1 or HDAC2 alone had minimal effects on cell death and proliferation. Taken together, our study suggests that both HDAC1 and HDAC2 exert pro-survival effects in HCC cells, and the combination of isoform-specific HDAC inhibitors against both HDACs may be effective in targeting HCC to reduce mortality. PMID:26352599

  4. Extensively drug-resistant bacteria are an independent predictive factor of mortality in 130 patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis or spontaneous bacteremia

    PubMed Central

    Alexopoulou, Alexandra; Vasilieva, Larisa; Agiasotelli, Danai; Siranidi, Kyriaki; Pouriki, Sophia; Tsiriga, Athanasia; Toutouza, Marina; Dourakis, Spyridon P

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate the epidemiology and outcomes of culture-positive spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) and spontaneous bacteremia (SB) in decompensated cirrhosis. METHODS: We prospectively collected clinical, laboratory characteristics, type of administered antibiotic, susceptibility and resistance of bacteria to antibiotics in one hundred thirty cases (68.5% males) with positive ascitic fluid and/or blood cultures during the period from January 1, 2012 to May 30, 2014. All patients with SBP had polymorphonuclear cell count in ascitic fluid > 250/mm3. In patients with SB a thorough study did not reveal any other cause of bacteremia. The patients were followed-up for a 30-d period following diagnosis of the infection. The final outcome of the patients was recorded in the end of follow-up and comparison among 3 groups of patients according to the pattern of drug resistance was performed. RESULTS: Gram-positive-cocci (GPC) were found in half of the cases. The most prevalent organisms in a descending order were Escherichia coli (33), Enterococcus spp (30), Streptococcus spp (25), Klebsiella pneumonia (16), S. aureus (8), Pseudomanas aeruginosa (5), other Gram-negative-bacteria (GNB) (11) and anaerobes (2). Overall, 20.8% of isolates were multidrug-resistant (MDR) and 10% extensively drug-resistant (XDR). Health-care-associated (HCA) and/or nosocomial infections were present in 100% of MDR/XDR and in 65.5% of non-DR cases. Meropenem was the empirically prescribed antibiotic in HCA/nosocomial infections showing a drug-resistance rate of 30.7% while third generation cephalosporins of 43.8%. Meropenem was ineffective on both XDR bacteria and Enterococcus faecium (E. faecium). All but one XDR were susceptible to colistin while all GPC (including E. faecium) and the 86% of GNB to tigecycline. Overall 30-d mortality was 37.7% (69.2% for XDR and 34.2% for the rest of the patients) (log rank, P = 0.015). In multivariate analysis, factors adversely affecting outcome included

  5. Copeptin Predicts Mortality in Critically Ill Patients

    PubMed Central

    Krychtiuk, Konstantin A.; Honeder, Maria C.; Lenz, Max; Maurer, Gerald; Wojta, Johann; Heinz, Gottfried; Huber, Kurt; Speidl, Walter S.

    2017-01-01

    Background Critically ill patients admitted to a medical intensive care unit exhibit a high mortality rate irrespective of the cause of admission. Besides its role in fluid and electrolyte balance, vasopressin has been described as a stress hormone. Copeptin, the C-terminal portion of provasopressin mirrors vasopressin levels and has been described as a reliable biomarker for the individual’s stress level and was associated with outcome in various disease entities. The aim of this study was to analyze whether circulating levels of copeptin at ICU admission are associated with 30-day mortality. Methods In this single-center prospective observational study including 225 consecutive patients admitted to a tertiary medical ICU at a university hospital, blood was taken at ICU admission and copeptin levels were measured using a commercially available automated sandwich immunofluorescent assay. Results Median acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score was 20 and 30-day mortality was 25%. Median copeptin admission levels were significantly higher in non-survivors as compared with survivors (77.6 IQR 30.7–179.3 pmol/L versus 45.6 IQR 19.6–109.6 pmol/L; p = 0.025). Patients with serum levels of copeptin in the third tertile at admission had a 2.4-fold (95% CI 1.2–4.6; p = 0.01) increased mortality risk as compared to patients in the first tertile. When analyzing patients according to cause of admission, copeptin was only predictive of 30-day mortality in patients admitted due to medical causes as opposed to those admitted after cardiac surgery, as medical patients with levels of copeptin in the highest tertile had a 3.3-fold (95% CI 1.66.8, p = 0.002) risk of dying independent from APACHE II score, primary diagnosis, vasopressor use and need for mechanical ventilation. Conclusion Circulating levels of copeptin at ICU admission independently predict 30-day mortality in patients admitted to a medical ICU. PMID:28118414

  6. Base Deficit and Alveolar-Arterial Gradient During Resuscitation Contribute Independently But Modestly to the Prediction of Mortality After Burn Injury

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-06-01

    et al 295 Herndon DN, editor. Total Burn Care. London: W.B. Saunders; 2002:16–30. 2. Cartotto R , Choi J, Gomez M, et al. A prospective study on the...determines therapy. J Trauma 1992; 33:417–23. 21. Weiskopf RB, Fairley HB. Anesthesia for major trauma. Surg Clin North Am 1982;62:31–45. 22. Moomey...trauma. Crit Care Med 1999;27:154–61. 23. Mikulaschek A, Henry SM, Donovan R , et al. Serum lactate is not predicted by anion gap or base excess after

  7. Consistent Predictions of Future Forest Mortality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDowell, N. G.

    2014-12-01

    We examined empirical and model based estimates of current and future forest mortality of conifers in the northern hemisphere. Consistent water potential thresholds were found that resulted in mortality of our case study species, pinon pine and one-seed juniper. Extending these results with IPCC climate scenarios suggests that most existing trees in this region (SW USA) will be dead by 2050. Further, independent estimates of future mortality for the entire coniferous biome suggest widespread mortality by 2100. The validity and assumptions and implications of these results are discussed.

  8. Response to methotrexate predicts long-term mortality of patients with rheumatoid arthritis independent of the degree of response: results of a re-evaluation 30 years after baseline.

    PubMed

    Krause, Carolin; Herborn, Gertraud; Braun, Juergen; Rudolf, Henrik; Wassenberg, Siegfried; Rau, Rolf; Krause, Dietmar

    2017-01-01

    To assess if there is a correlation between the degree of response to treatment with methotrexate (MTX) and long-term mortality in a cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) established in Germany in the early eighties. RA patients who had started MTX treatment between 1980 and 1987 were included. One year after baseline, the treatment response was evaluated. Responders were defined as patients with at least 20% decline in the swollen joint count (out of 32 joints) and the ESR with a prednisone dosage <5 mg/day. Thereafter, assessments were performed at 10, 18, and 30 years after baseline. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated, Cox regression and logistic regression were performed. The cohort comprised 271 patients. In 2015, about 30 years after the initiation of MTX therapy, 185 patients (68%) were deceased, 52 (19%) lost to follow-up and 34 alive. The response after the first year of MTX treatment was the strongest predictor of survival with a hazard ratio of 0.44 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.30-0.65). However, even responders still had an SMR of 1.37 (95% CI 1.31-1.65), but this was much worse for non-responders who had an SMR of 4.22 (95% CI 3.13-5.56). Using Cox regression analysis no difference was detected between responders with more than 50% improvement (38% of all patients) and those with 20-50% improvement (28%). The predictive value of a response to one year of MTX therapy for long-term mortality of RA patients is independent of the degree of response.

  9. Tree mortality predicted from drought-induced vascular damage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderegg, William R. L.; Flint, Alan; Huang, Cho-Ying; Flint, Lorraine; Berry, Joseph A.; Davis, Frank W.; Sperry, John S.; Field, Christopher B.

    2015-05-01

    The projected responses of forest ecosystems to warming and drying associated with twenty-first-century climate change vary widely from resiliency to widespread tree mortality. Current vegetation models lack the ability to account for mortality of overstorey trees during extreme drought owing to uncertainties in mechanisms and thresholds causing mortality. Here we assess the causes of tree mortality, using field measurements of branch hydraulic conductivity during ongoing mortality in Populus tremuloides in the southwestern United States and a detailed plant hydraulics model. We identify a lethal plant water stress threshold that corresponds with a loss of vascular transport capacity from air entry into the xylem. We then use this hydraulic-based threshold to simulate forest dieback during historical drought, and compare predictions against three independent mortality data sets. The hydraulic threshold predicted with 75% accuracy regional patterns of tree mortality as found in field plots and mortality maps derived from Landsat imagery. In a high-emissions scenario, climate models project that drought stress will exceed the observed mortality threshold in the southwestern United States by the 2050s. Our approach provides a powerful and tractable way of incorporating tree mortality into vegetation models to resolve uncertainty over the fate of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.

  10. Tree mortality predicted from drought-induced vascular damage

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderegg, William R. L.; Flint, Alan L.; Huang, Cho-ying; Flint, Lorraine E.; Berry, Joseph A.; Davis, Frank W.; Sperry, John S.; Field, Christopher B.

    2015-01-01

    The projected responses of forest ecosystems to warming and drying associated with twenty-first-century climate change vary widely from resiliency to widespread tree mortality1, 2, 3. Current vegetation models lack the ability to account for mortality of overstorey trees during extreme drought owing to uncertainties in mechanisms and thresholds causing mortality4, 5. Here we assess the causes of tree mortality, using field measurements of branch hydraulic conductivity during ongoing mortality in Populus tremuloides in the southwestern United States and a detailed plant hydraulics model. We identify a lethal plant water stress threshold that corresponds with a loss of vascular transport capacity from air entry into the xylem. We then use this hydraulic-based threshold to simulate forest dieback during historical drought, and compare predictions against three independent mortality data sets. The hydraulic threshold predicted with 75% accuracy regional patterns of tree mortality as found in field plots and mortality maps derived from Landsat imagery. In a high-emissions scenario, climate models project that drought stress will exceed the observed mortality threshold in the southwestern United States by the 2050s. Our approach provides a powerful and tractable way of incorporating tree mortality into vegetation models to resolve uncertainty over the fate of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.

  11. Brain natriuretic peptide predicts mortality in the elderly.

    PubMed Central

    Wallén, T.; Landahl, S.; Hedner, T.; Nakao, K.; Saito, Y.

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To study whether prospective measurements of circulating concentrations of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) could predict mortality in the general elderly population. DESIGN AND SETTING: Circulating BNP was measured in a cohort of 85 year olds from the general population who were followed up prospectively for five years as part of a longitudinal population study, "70 year old people in Gothenburg, Sweden". PATIENTS: 541 subjects from the 85 year old population in Gothenburg. All subjects were investigated for the presence or absence of cardiovascular disorder such as congestive heart failure, ischaemic heart disease, hypertension, and atrial fibrillation. Venous plasma samples were obtained for BNP analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Overall mortality during the prospective follow up period. RESULTS: Circulating concentrations of BNP predicted five-year mortality in the total population (P < 0.001). In subjects with a known cardiovascular disorder, five-year mortality was correlated with increased BNP concentrations (P < 0.01). Increased BNP concentrations predicted five-year mortality in subjects without a defined cardiovascular disorder (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In an elderly population, measurements of BNP may add valuable prognostic information and may be used to predict mortality in the total population as well as in patients with known cardiovascular disorders. In subjects without any known cardiovascular disorder, BNP was a strong and independent predictor of total mortality. PMID:9093047

  12. Prediction of Mortality Based on Facial Characteristics

    PubMed Central

    Delorme, Arnaud; Pierce, Alan; Michel, Leena; Radin, Dean

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that characteristics of the face contain a wealth of information about health, age and chronic clinical conditions. Such studies involve objective measurement of facial features correlated with historical health information. But some individuals also claim to be adept at gauging mortality based on a glance at a person’s photograph. To test this claim, we invited 12 such individuals to see if they could determine if a person was alive or dead based solely on a brief examination of facial photographs. All photos used in the experiment were transformed into a uniform gray scale and then counterbalanced across eight categories: gender, age, gaze direction, glasses, head position, smile, hair color, and image resolution. Participants examined 404 photographs displayed on a computer monitor, one photo at a time, each shown for a maximum of 8 s. Half of the individuals in the photos were deceased, and half were alive at the time the experiment was conducted. Participants were asked to press a button if they thought the person in a photo was living or deceased. Overall mean accuracy on this task was 53.8%, where 50% was expected by chance (p < 0.004, two-tail). Statistically significant accuracy was independently obtained in 5 of the 12 participants. We also collected 32-channel electrophysiological recordings and observed a robust difference between images of deceased individuals correctly vs. incorrectly classified in the early event related potential (ERP) at 100 ms post-stimulus onset. Our results support claims of individuals who report that some as-yet unknown features of the face predict mortality. The results are also compatible with claims about clairvoyance warrants further investigation. PMID:27242466

  13. Predicting tree mortality following gypsy moth defoliation

    Treesearch

    D.E. Fosbroke; R.R. Hicks; K.W. Gottschalk

    1991-01-01

    Appropriate application of gypsy moth control strategies requires an accurate prediction of the distribution and intensity of tree mortality prior to defoliation. This prior information is necessary to better target investments in control activities where they are needed. This poster lays the groundwork for developing hazard-rating systems for forests of the...

  14. Dysnatremia is an Independent Indicator of Mortality in Hospitalized Patients

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Jiachang; Wang, Yimei; Geng, Xuemei; Chen, Rongyi; Zhang, Pan; Lin, Jing; Teng, Jie; Zhang, Xiaoyan; Ding, Xiaoqiang

    2017-01-01

    Background Dysnatremia is a risk factor for poor outcomes. We aimed to describe the prevalence and outcomes of various dysnatremia in hospitalized patients. High-risk patients must be identified to improve the prognosis of dysnatremia. Material/Methods This prospective study included all adult patients admitted consecutively to a university hospital between October 1, 2014 and September 30, 2015. Result All 90 889 patients were included in this study. According to the serum sodium levels during hospitalization, the incidence of hyponatremia and hypernatremia was 16.8% and 1.9%, respectively. Mixed dysnatremia, which was defined when both hyponatremia and hypernatremia happened in the same patient during hospitalization, took place in 0.3% of patients. The incidence of dysnatremia was different in various underlying diseases. Multiple logistic regression analyses showed that all kinds of dysnatremia were independently associated with hospital mortality. The following dysnatremias were strong predictors of hospital mortality: mixed dysnatremia (OR 22.344, 95% CI 15.709–31.783, P=0.000), hypernatremia (OR 13.387, 95% CI 10.642–16.840, P=0.000), and especially hospital-acquired (OR 16.216, 95% CI 12.588–20.888, P=0.000) and persistent (OR 22.983, 95% CI 17.554–30.092, P=0.000) hypernatremia. Hyponatremia was also a risk factor for hospital mortality (OR 2.225, 95% CI 1.857–2.667). However, the OR increased to 56.884 (95% CI 35.098–92.193) if hyponatremia was over-corrected to hypernatremia. Conclusions Dysnatremia was independently associated with poor outcomes. Hospital-acquired and persistent hypernatremia were strong risk factors for hospital mortality. Effective prevention and proper correction of dysnatremia in high-risk patients may reduce the hospital mortality. PMID:28528344

  15. Overhydration Is a Strong Predictor of Mortality in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients – Independently of Cardiac Failure

    PubMed Central

    Jotterand Drepper, Valérie; Kihm, Lars P.; Kälble, Florian; Diekmann, Christian; Seckinger, Joerg; Sommerer, Claudia; Zeier, Martin; Schwenger, Vedat

    2016-01-01

    Background Overhydration is a common problem in peritoneal dialysis patients and has been shown to be associated with mortality. However, it still remains unclear whether overhydration per se is predictive of mortality or whether it is mainly a reflection of underlying comorbidities. The purpose of our study was to assess overhydration in peritoneal dialysis patients using bioimpedance spectroscopy and to investigate whether overhydration is an independent predictor of mortality. Methods We analyzed and followed 54 peritoneal dialysis patients between June 2008 and December 2014. All patients underwent bioimpedance spectroscopy measurement once and were allocated to normohydrated and overhydrated groups. Overhydration was defined as an absolute overhydration/extracellular volume ratio > 15%. Simultaneously, clinical, echocardiographic and laboratory data were assessed. Heart failure was defined either on echocardiography, as a reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, or clinically according to the New York Heart Association functional classification. Patient survival was documented up until December 31st 2014. Factors associated with mortality were identified and a multivariable Cox regression model was used to identify independent predictors of mortality. Results Apart from higher daily peritoneal ultrafiltration rate and cumulative diuretic dose in overhydrated patients, there were no significant differences between the 2 groups, in particular with respect to gender, body mass index, comorbidity and cardiac medication. Mortality was higher in overhydrated than in euvolemic patients. In the univariate analysis, increased age, overhydration, low diastolic blood pressure, raised troponin and NTproBNP, hypoalbuminemia, heart failure but not CRP were predictive of mortality. After adjustment, only overhydration, increased age and low diastolic blood pressure remained statistically significant in the multivariate analysis. Conclusions Overhydration remains an

  16. Skin autofluorescence predicts cardiovascular mortality in patients on chronic hemodialysis.

    PubMed

    Kimura, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Kenichi; Kanno, Makoto; Watanabe, Kimio; Hayashi, Yoshimitsu; Asahi, Koichi; Suzuki, Hodaka; Sato, Keiji; Sakaue, Michiaki; Terawaki, Hiroyuki; Nakayama, Masaaki; Miyata, Toshio; Watanabe, Tsuyoshi

    2014-10-01

    Tissue accumulation of advanced glycation end products (AGE) is thought to contribute to the progression of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Skin autofluorescence, a non-invasive measure of AGE accumulation using autofluorescence of the skin under ultraviolet light, has been reported to be an independent predictor of mortality associated with CVD in Caucasian patients on chronic hemodialysis. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of skin autofluorescence on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis. Baseline skin autofluorescence was measured with an autofluorescence reader in 128 non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality was monitored prospectively during a period of 6 years. During the follow-up period, 42 of the 128 patients died; 19 of those patients died of CVD. Skin autofluorescence did not have a significant effect on all-cause mortality. However, age, carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT), serum albumin, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), skin autofluorescence and pre-existing CVD were significantly correlated with cardiovascular mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed skin autofluorescence (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 3.97; 95% confidence interval [CI]1.67-9.43), serum albumin (adjusted HR 0.05; 95% CI 0.01-0.32), and hsCRP (adjusted HR 1.55; 95% CI 1.18-2.05) to be independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality. The present study suggests that skin autofluorescence is an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality in non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis.

  17. Personalizing Mortality Prediction With Psychosocial Questionnaire Data

    PubMed Central

    Chapman, Benjamin P.; Weiss, Alexander; Fiscella, Kevin; Muennig, Peter; Kawachi, Ichiro; Duberstein, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Background Predicting risk of premature death is one of the most basic tasks in medicine and public health, but has proven difficult over the long term even with the best prognostic models. One popular strategy has been to improve prognostic models with candidate genes and other novel biomarkers. However, the gains in predictive power have been modest and the costs have been high, leading to a demand for cost-effective alternatives. We conducted a proof-of-principle investigation to examine whether simple, cheap, and non-invasive paper-and-pencil measures of social class and personality phenotype could improve the performance of one of the most widely used prediction models for all-cause mortality, the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Methods We used data from baseline and 25-year mortality follow-up of the UK Health and Lifestyle Study cohort. In a subset of the cohort, we first identified five psychosocial factors highly predictive of mortality: income, education, Type A personality, communalism (preference for the company of others), and “lie” scale (a measure of denial, putatively associated with ill-health). We then examined the predictive performance of the Charlson CCI with and without these measures in a validation subsample. Results Across 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25-year time horizons, the psychosocially augmented CCI showed substantially better discrimination (AUCs (95% CI) from .83 (.81, .85) to .84 (.83 .86)) than the CCI (AUCs from .74 (.71, .76) to .77 (.76 to .79)). These translated into net reclassification improvements from 27% (23%, 31%) to 35% (32%, 38%) of survivors and from 23% (17%, 30%) to 34% (17%, 30%) of decedents; and 23%–42% reductions in the Number Needed to Screen. Calibration improved at all time horizons except 25 years, where it was decreased. Conclusion Widespread attempts to improve prognostic models might consider not only novel biomarkers, but also psychosocial questionnaire measures. PMID:26421372

  18. Predicting the mortality in geriatric patients with dengue fever.

    PubMed

    Huang, Hung-Sheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Ye, Je-Chiuan; Su, Shih-Bin; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Lin, Hung-Jung

    2017-09-01

    Geriatric patients have high mortality for dengue fever (DF); however, there is no adequate method to predict mortality in geriatric patients. Therefore, we conducted this study to develop a tool in an attempt to address this issue.We conducted a retrospective case-control study in a tertiary medical center during the DF outbreak in Taiwan in 2015. All the geriatric patients (aged ≥65 years) who visited the study hospital between September 1, 2015, and December 31, 2015, were recruited into this study. Variables included demographic data, vital signs, symptoms and signs, comorbidities, living status, laboratory data, and 30-day mortality. We investigated independent mortality predictors by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis and then combined these predictors to predict the mortality.A total of 627 geriatric DF patients were recruited, with a mortality rate of 4.3% (27 deaths and 600 survivals). The following 4 independent mortality predictors were identified: severe coma [Glasgow Coma Scale: ≤8; adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 11.36; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.89-68.19], bedridden (AOR: 10.46; 95% CI: 1.58-69.16), severe hepatitis (aspartate aminotransferase >1000 U/L; AOR: 96.08; 95% CI: 14.11-654.40), and renal failure (serum creatinine >2 mg/dL; AOR: 6.03; 95% CI: 1.50-24.24). When we combined the predictors, we found that the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for patients with 1 or more predictors were 70.37%, 88.17%, 21.11%, and 98.51%, respectively. For patients with 2 or more predictors, the respective values were 33.33%, 99.44%, 57.14%, and 98.51%.We developed a new method to help decision making. Among geriatric patients with none of the predictors, the survival rate was 98.51%, and among those with 2 or more predictors, the mortality rate was 57.14%. This method is simple and useful, especially in an outbreak.

  19. Using growth velocity to predict child mortality.

    PubMed

    Schwinger, Catherine; Fadnes, Lars T; Van den Broeck, Jan

    2016-03-01

    Growth assessment based on the WHO child growth velocity standards can potentially be used to predict adverse health outcomes. Nevertheless, there are very few studies on growth velocity to predict mortality. We aimed to determine the ability of various growth velocity measures to predict child death within 3 mo and to compare it with those of attained growth measures. Data from 5657 children <5 y old who were enrolled in a cohort study in the Democratic Republic of Congo were used. Children were measured up to 6 times in 3-mo intervals, and 246 (4.3%) children died during the study period. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) models informed the mortality risk within 3 mo for weight and length velocity z scores and 3-mo changes in midupper arm circumference (MUAC). We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to present balance in sensitivity and specificity to predict child death. GEE models showed that children had an exponential increase in the risk of dying with decreasing growth velocity in all 4 indexes (1.2- to 2.4-fold for every unit decrease). A length and weight velocity z score of <-3 was associated with an 11.8- and a 7.9-fold increase, respectively, in the RR of death in the subsequent 3-mo period (95% CIs: 3.9, 35.5, and 3.9, 16.2, respectively). Weight and length velocity z scores had better predictive abilities [area under the ROC curves (AUCs) of 0.67 and 0.69] than did weight-for-age (AUC: 0.57) and length-for-age (AUC: 0.52) z scores. Among wasted children (weight-for-height z score <-2), the AUC of weight velocity z scores was 0.87. Absolute MUAC performed best among the attained indexes (AUC: 0.63), but longitudinal assessment of MUAC-based indexes did not increase the predictive value. Although repeated growth measures are slightly more complex to implement, their superiority in mortality-predictive abilities suggests that these could be used more for identifying children at increased risk of death.

  20. Adrenomedullin optimises mortality prediction in COPD patients.

    PubMed

    Brusse-Keizer, Marjolein; Zuur-Telgen, Maaike; van der Palen, Job; VanderValk, Paul; Kerstjens, Huib; Boersma, Wim; Blasi, Francesco; Kostikas, Konstantinos; Milenkovic, Branislava; Tamm, Michael; Stolz, Daiana

    2015-06-01

    Current multicomponent scores that predict mortality in COPD patients might underestimate the systemic component of COPD. Therefore, we evaluated the accuracy of circulating levels of proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) alone or combined with the ADO (Age, Dyspnoea, airflow Obstruction), updated ADO or BOD (Body mass index, airflow Obstruction, Dyspnoea) index to predict all-cause mortality in stable COPD patients. This study pooled data of 1285 patients from the COMIC and PROMISE-COPD study. Patients with high MR-proADM levels (≥0.87 nmol/l) had a 2.1 fold higher risk of dying than those with lower levels (p < 0.001). Based on the C-statistic, the ADOA index (ADO plus MR-proADM) (C = 0.72) was the most accurate predictor followed by the BODA (BOD plus MR-proADM) (C = 0.71) and the updated ADOA index (updated ADO plus MR-proADM) (C = 0.70). Adding MR-proADM to ADO and BOD was superior in forecasting 1- and 2-year mortality. The net percentages of persons with events correctly reclassified (NRI+) within respectively 1-year and 2-year was 31% and 20% for ADO, 31% and 20% for updated ADO and 25% and 19% for BOD. The net percentages of persons without events correctly reclassified (NRI-) within respectively 1-year and 2-year was 26% and 27% for ADO, 27% and 28% for updated ADO and 34% and 34% for BOD. Adding MR-proADM increased the predictive power of BOD, ADO and updated ADO index. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. ASA class is a reliable independent predictor of medical complications and mortality following surgery.

    PubMed

    Hackett, Nicholas J; De Oliveira, Gildasio S; Jain, Umang K; Kim, John Y S

    2015-06-01

    The American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification system (ASA PS) is a method of characterizing patient operative risk on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is normal health and 5 is moribund. Every anesthesiologist is trained in this measure, and it is performed before every procedure in which a patient undergoes anesthesia. We measured the independent predictive value of ASA-PS for complications and mortality in the ACS-NSQIP database by multivariate regression. We conducted analogous regressions after standardizing ASA-PS to control for interprocedural variations in risk in the overall model and sub-analyses by surgical specialty and the most common procedures. For 2,297,629 cases (2005-2012; median age 55, min = 16, max > 90 [90 and above are coded as 90+]), at increasing levels of ASA-PS (2-5), odds ratios (OR's) from 2.05 to 63.25 (complications, p < 0.001) and 5.77-2011.92 (mortality, p < 0.001) were observed, with non-overlapping 95% confidence intervals. Standardization of ASA-PS (OR = 1.426 [per standard deviation above the mean ASA-PS per procedure], p < .001) and subgroup analyses yielded similar results. ASA PS was not only found to be associated with increased morbidity and mortality, but independently predictive when controlling for other comorbidities. Even after standardization based on procedure type, increases in ASA predicted significant increases in complication rates for morbidity and mortality post-operatively. ASA PS has strong, independent associations with post-operative medical complications and mortality across procedures. This capability, along with its simplicity, makes it a valuable prognostic metric. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Depressed sympathovagal balance predicts mortality in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage.

    PubMed

    Chiu, Te-Fa; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Chen, Jiann-Hwa; Chen, Wei-Lung

    2012-06-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate the role of sympathovagal balance in predicting inhospital mortality by assessing power spectral analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) among patients with nontraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) in an emergency department (ED). A cohort of 132 adult patients with spontaneous SAH in an ED was prospectively enrolled. A continuous 10-minute electrocardiography for off-line power spectral analysis of the HRV was recorded. Using the inhospital mortality, the patients were classified into 2 groups: nonsurvivors (n=38) and survivors (n=94). The HRV measures were compared between these 2 groups of patients. Having compared the various measurements, the very low-frequency component, low-frequency component, normalized low-frequency component (LF%), and low-/high-frequency component ratio (LF/HF) were significantly lower, whereas the normalized high-frequency component was significantly higher among the nonsurvivors than among the survivors. A multiple logistic regression model identified LF/HF (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-3.97; P=.013) and LF% (odds ratio, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.69-0.88; P<.001) as independent variables that were able to predict inhospital mortality for patients with SAH in an ED. The receiver operating characteristic area for LF/HF in predicting inhospital mortality was 0.957 (95% CI, 0.914-1.000; P<.001), and the best cutoff points was 0.8 (sensitivity, 92.1%; specificity, 90.4%). Power spectral analysis of the HRV is able to predict inhospital mortality for patients after SAH in an ED. A tilt in the sympathovagal balance toward depressed sympathovagal balance, as indicated by HRV analysis, might contribute to the poor outcome among these patients. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Mapping and predicting mortality from systemic sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Elhai, Muriel; Meune, Christophe; Boubaya, Marouane; Avouac, Jérôme; Hachulla, Eric; Balbir-Gurman, Alexandra; Riemekasten, Gabriela; Airò, Paolo; Joven, Beatriz; Vettori, Serena; Cozzi, Franco; Ullman, Susanne; Czirják, László; Tikly, Mohammed; Müller-Ladner, Ulf; Caramaschi, Paola; Distler, Oliver; Iannone, Florenzo; Ananieva, Lidia P; Hesselstrand, Roger; Becvar, Radim; Gabrielli, Armando; Damjanov, Nemanja; Salvador, Maria J; Riccieri, Valeria; Mihai, Carina; Szücs, Gabriella; Walker, Ulrich A; Hunzelmann, Nicolas; Martinovic, Duska; Smith, Vanessa; Müller, Carolina de Souza; Montecucco, Carlo Maurizio; Opris, Daniela; Ingegnoli, Francesca; Vlachoyiannopoulos, Panayiotis G; Stamenkovic, Bojana; Rosato, Edoardo; Heitmann, Stefan; Distler, Jörg H W; Zenone, Thierry; Seidel, Matthias; Vacca, Alessandra; Langhe, Ellen De; Novak, Srdan; Cutolo, Maurizio; Mouthon, Luc; Henes, Jörg; Chizzolini, Carlo; Mühlen, Carlos Alberto von; Solanki, Kamal; Rednic, Simona; Stamp, Lisa; Anic, Branimir; Santamaria, Vera Ortiz; Santis, Maria De; Yavuz, Sule; Sifuentes-Giraldo, Walter Alberto; Chatelus, Emmanuel; Stork, Jiri; Laar, Jacob van; Loyo, Esthela; García de la Peña Lefebvre, Paloma; Eyerich, Kilian; Cosentino, Vanesa; Alegre-Sancho, Juan Jose; Kowal-Bielecka, Otylia; Rey, Grégoire; Matucci-Cerinic, Marco; Allanore, Yannick

    2017-11-01

    To determine the causes of death and risk factors in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Between 2000 and 2011, we examined the death certificates of all French patients with SSc to determine causes of death. Then we examined causes of death and developed a score associated with all-cause mortality from the international European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) database. Candidate prognostic factors were tested by Cox proportional hazards regression model by single variable analysis, followed by a multiple variable model stratified by centres. The bootstrapping technique was used for internal validation. We identified 2719 French certificates of deaths related to SSc, mainly from cardiac (31%) and respiratory (18%) causes, and an increase in SSc-specific mortality over time. Over a median follow-up of 2.3 years, 1072 (9.6%) of 11 193 patients from the EUSTAR sample died, from cardiac disease in 27% and respiratory causes in 17%. By multiple variable analysis, a risk score was developed, which accurately predicted the 3-year mortality, with an area under the curve of 0.82. The 3-year survival of patients in the upper quartile was 53%, in contrast with 98% in the first quartile. Combining two complementary and detailed databases enabled the collection of an unprecedented 3700 deaths, revealing the major contribution of the cardiopulmonary system to SSc mortality. We also developed a robust score to risk-stratify these patients and estimate their 3-year survival. With the emergence of new therapies, these important observations should help caregivers plan and refine the monitoring and management to prolong these patients' survival. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  4. Admission serum lactate predicts mortality in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

    PubMed

    Aisiku, Imo P; Chen, Peng Roc; Truong, Hanh; Monsivais, Daniel R; Edlow, Jonathan

    2016-04-01

    Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is the most devastating form of hemorrhagic stroke. Primary predictors of mortality are based on initial clinical presentation. Initial serum lactic acid levels have been shown to predict mortality and disease severity. Initial serum lactate may be an objective predictor or mortality. Retrospective review of aneurysmal SAH in a large academic center over a 42-month period. Data collected included demographics, clinical data, serum, and clinical outcomes data. Epidemiologic data were collected at baseline, and patients were followed up through their inpatient stay. We compared data in the group of patients who were deceased (group A) vs survivors (group B). There were a total of 249 patients. Mortality was 21.5%. Mean age was the same for both groups: 57 years (group A) and 55 years (group B). Mean admission serum lactate level was 3.5 ± 2.5 (group A) and 2.2 ± 1.6 (group B; P <. 0001). The range was 0.01 to 14.7. Multivariable analysis controlling for Hunt and Hess grades showed lactic acid levels to be an independent predictor of mortality with a P value of .0018. In aneurysmal SAH, elevated serum lactate levels on admission may have a predictive role for mortality and represent a marker of disease severity. Currently, lactic acid levels are not ordered on all patients with SAH but perhaps should be part of the routine initial blood work and may serve as an additional prognostic marker. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Olfactory Dysfunction Predicts 5-Year Mortality in Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Pinto, Jayant M.; Wroblewski, Kristen E.; Kern, David W.; Schumm, L. Philip; McClintock, Martha K.

    2014-01-01

    Prediction of mortality has focused on disease and frailty, although antecedent biomarkers may herald broad physiological decline. Olfaction, an ancestral chemical system, is a strong candidate biomarker because it is linked to diverse physiological processes. We sought to determine if olfactory dysfunction is a harbinger of 5-year mortality in the National Social Life, Health and Aging Project [NSHAP], a nationally representative sample of older U.S. adults. 3,005 community-dwelling adults aged 57–85 were studied in 2005–6 (Wave 1) and their mortality determined in 2010–11 (Wave 2). Olfactory dysfunction, determined objectively at Wave 1, was used to estimate the odds of 5-year, all cause mortality via logistic regression, controlling for demographics and health factors. Mortality for anosmic older adults was four times that of normosmic individuals while hyposmic individuals had intermediate mortality (p<0.001), a “dose-dependent” effect present across the age range. In a comprehensive model that included potential confounding factors, anosmic older adults had over three times the odds of death compared to normosmic individuals (OR, 3.37 [95%CI 2.04, 5.57]), higher than and independent of known leading causes of death, and did not result from the following mechanisms: nutrition, cognitive function, mental health, smoking and alcohol abuse or frailty. Olfactory function is thus one of the strongest predictors of 5-year mortality and may serve as a bellwether for slowed cellular regeneration or as a marker of cumulative toxic environmental exposures. This finding provides clues for pinpointing an underlying mechanism related to a fundamental component of the aging process. PMID:25271633

  6. Olfactory dysfunction predicts 5-year mortality in older adults.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Jayant M; Wroblewski, Kristen E; Kern, David W; Schumm, L Philip; McClintock, Martha K

    2014-01-01

    Prediction of mortality has focused on disease and frailty, although antecedent biomarkers may herald broad physiological decline. Olfaction, an ancestral chemical system, is a strong candidate biomarker because it is linked to diverse physiological processes. We sought to determine if olfactory dysfunction is a harbinger of 5-year mortality in the National Social Life, Health and Aging Project [NSHAP], a nationally representative sample of older U.S. adults. 3,005 community-dwelling adults aged 57-85 were studied in 2005-6 (Wave 1) and their mortality determined in 2010-11 (Wave 2). Olfactory dysfunction, determined objectively at Wave 1, was used to estimate the odds of 5-year, all cause mortality via logistic regression, controlling for demographics and health factors. Mortality for anosmic older adults was four times that of normosmic individuals while hyposmic individuals had intermediate mortality (p<0.001), a "dose-dependent" effect present across the age range. In a comprehensive model that included potential confounding factors, anosmic older adults had over three times the odds of death compared to normosmic individuals (OR, 3.37 [95%CI 2.04, 5.57]), higher than and independent of known leading causes of death, and did not result from the following mechanisms: nutrition, cognitive function, mental health, smoking and alcohol abuse or frailty. Olfactory function is thus one of the strongest predictors of 5-year mortality and may serve as a bellwether for slowed cellular regeneration or as a marker of cumulative toxic environmental exposures. This finding provides clues for pinpointing an underlying mechanism related to a fundamental component of the aging process.

  7. Vitamin D Status Predicts 30 Day Mortality in Hospitalised Cats

    PubMed Central

    Titmarsh, Helen; Kilpatrick, Scott; Sinclair, Jennifer; Boag, Alisdair; Bode, Elizabeth F.; Lalor, Stephanie M.; Gaylor, Donna; Berry, Jacqueline; Bommer, Nicholas X.; Gunn-Moore, Danielle; Reed, Nikki; Handel, Ian; Mellanby, Richard J.

    2015-01-01

    Vitamin D insufficiency, defined as low serum concentrations of the major circulating form of vitamin D, 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), has been associated with the development of numerous infectious, inflammatory, and neoplastic disorders in humans. In addition, vitamin D insufficiency has been found to be predictive of mortality for many disorders. However, interpretation of human studies is difficult since vitamin D status is influenced by many factors, including diet, season, latitude, and exposure to UV radiation. In contrast, domesticated cats do not produce vitamin D cutaneously, and most cats are fed a commercial diet containing a relatively standard amount of vitamin D. Consequently, domesticated cats are an attractive model system in which to examine the relationship between serum 25(OH)D and health outcomes. The hypothesis of this study was that vitamin D status would predict short term, all-cause mortality in domesticated cats. Serum concentrations of 25(OH)D, together with a wide range of other clinical, hematological, and biochemical parameters, were measured in 99 consecutively hospitalised cats. Cats which died within 30 days of initial assessment had significantly lower serum 25(OH)D concentrations than cats which survived. In a linear regression model including 12 clinical variables, serum 25(OH)D concentration in the lower tertile was significantly predictive of mortality. The odds ratio of mortality within 30 days was 8.27 (95% confidence interval 2.54-31.52) for cats with a serum 25(OH)D concentration in the lower tertile. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that low serum 25(OH)D concentration status is an independent predictor of short term mortality in cats. PMID:25970442

  8. Circulating cell-free DNA in hemodialysis patients predicts mortality.

    PubMed

    Tovbin, David; Novack, Victor; Wiessman, Maya Paryente; Abd Elkadir, Amir; Zlotnik, Moshe; Douvdevani, Amos

    2012-10-01

    Circulating cell-free DNA (CFD) appears following cell damage and DNA release, and increases in hemodialysis (HD) patients particularly following HD. We hypothesized that CFD is an integrative marker of tissue damage and can be an independent predictor for all-cause mortality in HD patients. In a prospective study, CFD levels before and after HD were evaluated in 31 chronic HD patients with no acute disease, using the reported rapid non-cumbersome inexpensive fluorometric assay developed in our laboratory. Follow-up levels were assessed at 18 months in 22 patients. All-cause mortality was a primary endpoint. During 42 months of follow-up, 13 of the 31 (41.9%) patients died. The decedents were older than the survivors (mean age 69.9 versus 61.5 years, P = 0.06), but did not differ in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) duration, gender, albumin and hemoglobin, diabetes mellitus and weight. Post-dialysis CFD levels were significantly lower in survivors (median 688 versus 880 ng/mL, P = 0.01). The sensitivity and specificity of CFD levels of 850 ng/mL to predict 42 months (3.5 years) mortality were 73 and 75%, respectively, and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.60-0.94]. The Cox proportional hazard regression model showed that CFD higher than 850 ng/mL adjusted for age, ESRD duration, weight and creatinine (stepwise model) was highly predictive of all-cause death with a hazard ratio of 8.0 (95% CI 2.3-28.5, P = 0.001). Post-dialysis CFD level is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in patients undergoing HD. We propose that CFD detection is an inexpensive applicable tool for identifying patients at risk and their follow-up.

  9. Predicting mortality based on body composition analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Tellado, J M; Garcia-Sabrido, J L; Hanley, J A; Shizgal, H M; Christou, N V

    1989-01-01

    The role of the Nae/Ke ratio (the ratio of exchangeable sodium to exchangeable potassium) was examined as a nutritional marker in surgical patients in relation to anthropometrical and biochemical indexes by its ability to identify patients at risk for mortality after hospitalization. In 73 patients with sepsis and malnutrition (Training Group, Madrid) the following were determined: percentage of recent weight loss, triceps skin fold, midarm muscle circumference, serum albumin, serum transferrin, delayed hypersensitivity skin test response, total lymphocytes, and Nae/Ke ratio by multiple isotope dilution. The predictive power of Nae/Ke ratio was so strong (F = 105.1; p less than 0.00001) that it displaced anthropometric, biochemical, and immunologic variables from the linear equation derived from stepwise discriminant analysis using hospital mortality as the dependent variable. A theoretical curve of expected deaths was developed, based on an equation obtained by logistic regression analysis: Pr/death/ = 1/(1 + e[11.8-5.2 Nae/Ke]). Pre- and post-test probabilities on that curve allowed us to determine two cut-off values, Nae/Ke ratios of 1.5 and 2.5, which were markers for nonrisk and mortality, respectively. The model was tested in a heterogeneous data base of surgical patients (n = 417) in another hospital (Validation Group, Montreal). For patients exhibiting an abnormal Nae/Ke ratio (greater than 1.2) and a greater than 10% of probability of death, 54 deaths were expected and 53 observed (X2 = 1.8 NS). Two tests confirmed the basic agreement between the model and its performance, a G statistic of -0.704 and the area beneath the "receiver-operating-characteristic" (ROC) curve (Az = 0.904 + 0.0516 for the Madrid group vs. Az = 0.915 + 0.0349 for the Montreal group, NS). It was concluded from this analysis that, compared with the usual anthropometric measurements, the Nae/Ke ratio, if available, is the best method for identifying malnourished patients at risk of

  10. Plasma Free Hemoglobin Is an Independent Predictor of Mortality among Patients on Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Support.

    PubMed

    Omar, Hesham R; Mirsaeidi, Mehdi; Socias, Stephanie; Sprenker, Collin; Caldeira, Christiano; Camporesi, Enrico M; Mangar, Devanand

    2015-01-01

    Hemolysis is common in all extracorporeal circuits as evident by the elevated plasma free hemoglobin (PFHb) level. We investigated whether increased hemolysis during extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is an independent mortality predictor. We performed a retrospective observational study of consecutive subjects who received ECMO at a tertiary care facility from 2007-2013 to investigate independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. We examined variables related to patient demographics, comorbidities, markers of hemolysis, ECMO characteristics, transfusion requirements, and complications. 24-hour PFHb > 50 mg/dL was used as a marker of severe hemolysis. 154 patients received ECMO for cardiac (n = 115) or pulmonary (n = 39) indications. Patients' mean age was 51 years and 75.3% were males. Compared to nonsurvivors, survivors had lower pre-ECMO lactic acid (p = 0.026), lower 24-hour lactic acid (p = 0.023), shorter ECMO duration (P = 0.01), fewer RBC transfusions on ECMO (p = 0.008) and lower level of PFHb 24-hours post ECMO implantation (p = 0.029). 24-hour PFHb > 50 mg/dL occurred in 3.9 % versus 15.5% of survivors and nonsurvivors, respectively, p = 0.002. A Cox proportional hazard analysis identified PFHb > 50 mg/dL 24-hours post ECMO as an independent predictor of mortality (OR= 3.4, 95% confidence interval: 1.3 - 8.8, p = 0.011). PFHb > 50 mg/dL checked 24-hour post ECMO implantation is a useful tool to predict mortality. We propose the routine checking of PFHb 24-hours after ECMO initiation for early identification and treatment of the cause of hemolysis.

  11. Mortality determinants and prediction of outcome in high risk newborns.

    PubMed

    Dalvi, R; Dalvi, B V; Birewar, N; Chari, G; Fernandez, A R

    1990-06-01

    The aim of this study was to determine independent patient-related predictors of mortality in high risk newborns admitted at our centre. The study population comprised 100 consecutive newborns each, from the premature unit (PU) and sick baby care unit (SBCU), respectively. Thirteen high risk factors (variables) for each of the two units, were entered into a multivariate regression analysis. Variables with independent predictive value for poor outcome (i.e., death) in PU were, weight less than 1 kg, hyaline membrane disease, neurologic problems, and intravenous therapy. High risk factors in SBCU included, blood gas abnormality, bleeding phenomena, recurrent convulsions, apnea, and congenital anomalies. Identification of these factors guided us in defining priority areas for improvement in our system of neonatal care. Also, based on these variables a simple predictive score for outcome was constructed. The prediction equation and the score were cross-validated by applying them to a 'test-set' of 100 newborns each for PU and SBCU. Results showed a comparable sensitivity, specificity and error rate.

  12. Hemoglobin Variability Does Not Predict Mortality in European Hemodialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Joseph; Kronenberg, Florian; Aljama, Pedro; Anker, Stefan D.; Canaud, Bernard; Molemans, Bart; Stenvinkel, Peter; Schernthaner, Guntram; Ireland, Elizabeth; Fouqueray, Bruno; Macdougall, Iain C.

    2010-01-01

    Patients with CKD exhibit significant within-patient hemoglobin (Hb) level variability, especially with the use of erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESAs) and iron. Analyses of dialysis cohorts in the United States produced conflicting results regarding the association of Hb variability with patient outcomes. Here, we determined Hb variability in 5037 European hemodialysis (HD) patients treated over 2 years to identify predictors of high variability and to evaluate its association with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. We assessed Hb variability with various methods using SD, residual SD, time-in-target (11.0 to 12.5 g/dl), fluctuation across thresholds, and area under the curve (AUC). Hb variability was significantly greater among incident patients than prevalent patients. Compared with previously described cohorts in the United States, residual SD was similar but fluctuations above target were less frequent. Using logistic regression, age, body mass index, CVD history, dialysis vintage, serum albumin, Hb, angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) use, ESA use, dialysis access type, dialysis access change, and hospitalizations were significant predictors of high variability. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression showed that SD, residual SD, time-in-target, and AUC did not predict all-cause or CVD mortality during a median follow-up of 12.4 months (IQR: 7.7 to 17.4). However, patients with consistently low levels of Hb (<11 g/dl) and those who fluctuated between the target range and <11 g/dl had increased risks for death (RR 2.34; 95% CI: 1.24 to 4.41 and RR 1.74; 95% CI: 1.00 to 3.04, respectively). In conclusion, although Hb variability is common in European HD patients, it does not independently predict mortality. PMID:20798262

  13. Mortality of atomic bomb survivors predicted from laboratory animals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carnes, Bruce A.; Grahn, Douglas; Hoel, David

    2003-01-01

    Exposure, pathology and mortality data for mice, dogs and humans were examined to determine whether accurate interspecies predictions of radiation-induced mortality could be achieved. The analyses revealed that (1) days of life lost per unit dose can be estimated for a species even without information on radiation effects in that species, and (2) accurate predictions of age-specific radiation-induced mortality in beagles and the atomic bomb survivors can be obtained from a dose-response model for comparably exposed mice. These findings illustrate the value of comparative mortality analyses and the relevance of animal data to the study of human health effects.

  14. Prediction of mortality rates in the presence of missing values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

    2015-12-01

    A time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied in the past literature on the United States (US) mortality data from the years 1933 to 2000 to forecast the future age-specific mortality rates of the years 2001 to 2010. In this paper, we show that the method based on multivariate power-normal distribution can still be used for an incomplete US mortality dataset that contains some missing values. The prediction intervals based on this incomplete training data are found to still have good ability of covering the observed future mortality rates although the interval lengths may become wider for long-range prediction.

  15. Mortality of atomic bomb survivors predicted from laboratory animals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carnes, Bruce A.; Grahn, Douglas; Hoel, David

    2003-01-01

    Exposure, pathology and mortality data for mice, dogs and humans were examined to determine whether accurate interspecies predictions of radiation-induced mortality could be achieved. The analyses revealed that (1) days of life lost per unit dose can be estimated for a species even without information on radiation effects in that species, and (2) accurate predictions of age-specific radiation-induced mortality in beagles and the atomic bomb survivors can be obtained from a dose-response model for comparably exposed mice. These findings illustrate the value of comparative mortality analyses and the relevance of animal data to the study of human health effects.

  16. The epigenetic clock and telomere length are independently associated with chronological age and mortality

    PubMed Central

    Marioni, Riccardo E; Harris, Sarah E; Shah, Sonia; McRae, Allan F; von Zglinicki, Thomas; Martin-Ruiz, Carmen; Wray, Naomi R; Visscher, Peter M; Deary, Ian J

    2016-01-01

    Background: Telomere length and DNA methylation have been proposed as biological clock measures that track chronological age. Whether they change in tandem, or contribute independently to the prediction of chronological age, is not known. Methods: We address these points using data from two Scottish cohorts: the Lothian Birth Cohorts of 1921 (LBC1921) and 1936 (LBC1936). Telomere length and epigenetic clock estimates from DNA methylation were measured in 920 LBC1936 participants (ages 70, 73 and 76 years) and in 414 LBC1921 participants (ages 79, 87 and 90 years). Results: The epigenetic clock changed over time at roughly the same rate as chronological age in both cohorts. Telomere length decreased at 48–67 base pairs per year on average. Weak, non-significant correlations were found between epigenetic clock estimates and telomere length. Telomere length explained 6.6% of the variance in age in LBC1921, the epigenetic clock explained 10.0%, and combined they explained 17.3% (all P < 1 × 10−7). Corresponding figures for the LBC1936 cohort were 14.3%, 11.7% and 19.5% (all P < 1 × 10−12). In a combined cohorts analysis, the respective estimates were 2.8%, 28.5% and 29.5%. Also in a combined cohorts analysis, a one standard deviation increase in baseline epigenetic age was linked to a 22% increased mortality risk (P = 2.6 × 10−4) whereas, in the same model, a one standard deviation increase in baseline telomere length was independently linked to an 11% decreased mortality risk (P = 0.06). Conclusions: These results suggest that telomere length and epigenetic clock estimates are independent predictors of chronological age and mortality risk. PMID:27075770

  17. Predicting drought-induced tree mortality in the western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderegg, W.; Wolf, A.; Shevliakova, E.; Pacala, S. W.

    2015-12-01

    Projected responses of forest ecosystems to warming and drying associated with 21st century climate change vary widely from resiliency to widespread dieback. A major shortcoming of current vegetation models is the inability to account for mortality of overstory trees during extreme drought due to uncertainties in mechanisms and thresholds. In this talk, I discuss two modeling efforts to predict drought-induced tree mortality in the western United States. In the first, we identify a lethal drought threshold in the loss of vascular transport capacity from xylem cavitation, which provides insight into what initiates mortality, in Populus tremuloides in the southwestern United States. We then use the hydraulic-based threshold to produce a hindcast of a drought-induced forest dieback and compare predictions against three independent regional mortality datasets. The hydraulic threshold predicted major regional patterns of tree mortality with high accuracy based on field plots and mortality maps derived from Landsat imagery. Climate model simulations project increasing drought stress in this region that exceeds the observed mortality threshold in the high emissions scenario by the 2050s, likely triggering further widespread diebacks. In the second approach, we build a dynamic plant hydraulic model into a land-surface model and compare predictions against observed mortality patterns across multiple species. These methods provide powerful and tractable approaches for incorporating tree mortality into vegetation models to resolve uncertainty over the fate of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.

  18. Evaluation of MELD score and Maddrey discriminant function for mortality prediction in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

    PubMed

    Monsanto, Pedro; Almeida, Nuno; Lrias, Clotilde; Pina, Jos Eduardo; Sofia, Carlos

    2013-01-01

    Maddrey discriminant function (DF) is the traditional model for evaluating the severity and prognosis in alcoholic hepatitis (AH). However, MELD has also been used for this purpose. We aimed to determine the predictive parameters and compare the ability of Maddrey DF and MELD to predict short-term mortality in patients with AH. Retrospective study of 45 patients admitted in our department with AH between 2000 and 2010. Demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters were collected. MELD and Maddrey DF were calculated on admission. Short-term mortality was assessed at 30 and 90 days. Student t-test, χ2 test, univariate analysis, logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curves were performed. Thirty-day and 90-day mortality was 27% and 42%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, Maddrey DF was the only independent predictor of mortality for these two periods. Receiver operating characteristic curves for Maddrey DF revealed an excellent discriminatory ability to predict 30-day and 90-day mortality for a Maddrey DF greater than 65 and 60, respectively. Discriminatory ability to predict 30-day and 90-day mortality for MELD was low. AH remains associated with a high short-term mortality. Maddrey DF is a more valuable model than MELD to predict short-term mortality in patients with AH.

  19. Persistent lymphopenia after diagnosis of sepsis predicts mortality.

    PubMed

    Drewry, Anne M; Samra, Navdeep; Skrupky, Lee P; Fuller, Brian M; Compton, Stephanie M; Hotchkiss, Richard S

    2014-11-01

    The objective of this study was to determine whether persistent lymphopenia on the fourth day following the diagnosis of sepsis predicts mortality. This was a single-center, retrospective cohort study of 335 adult patients with bacteremia and sepsis admitted to a large university-affiliated tertiary care hospital between January 1, 2010, and July 31, 2012. All complete blood cell count profiles during the first 4 days following the diagnosis of sepsis were recorded. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included development of secondary infections, 1-year mortality, and hospital and intensive care unit lengths of stay. Seventy-six patients (22.7%) died within 28 days. Lymphopenia was present in 28-day survivors (median, 0.7 × 10 cells/μL; interquartile range [IQR], 0.4-1.1 × 10 cells/μL) and nonsurvivors (median, 0.6 × 10 cells/μL; IQR, 0.4-1.1 × 10 cells/μL) at the onset of sepsis and was not significantly different between the groups (P = 0.35). By day 4, the median absolute lymphocyte count was significantly higher in survivors compared with nonsurvivors (1.1 × 10 cells/μL [IQR, 0.7-1.5 × 10 cells/μL] vs. 0.7 × 10 cells/μL [IQR, 0.5-1.0 × 10 cells/μL]; P < 0.0001). Using logistic regression to account for potentially confounding factors (including age, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, comorbidities, surgical procedure during the study period, and time until appropriate antibiotic administration), day 4 absolute lymphocyte count was found to be independently associated with 28-day survival (adjusted odds ratio, 0.68 [95% confidence interval, 0.51-0.91]) and 1-year survival (adjusted odds ratio, 0.74 [95% confidence interval, 0.59-0.93]). Severe persistent lymphopenia (defined as an absolute lymphocyte count of 0.6 × 10 cells/μL or less on the fourth day after sepsis diagnosis) was associated with increased development of secondary infections (P = 0.04). Persistent lymphopenia on the fourth day

  20. Chemotherapy effectiveness and mortality prediction in surgically treated osteosarcoma dogs: A validation study.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, A F; Nielen, M; Withrow, S J; Selmic, L E; Burton, J H; Klungel, O H; Groenwold, R H H; Kirpensteijn, J

    2016-03-01

    Canine osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, and an important cause of mortality and morbidity, in large purebred dogs. Previously we constructed two multivariable models to predict a dog's 5-month or 1-year mortality risk after surgical treatment for osteosarcoma. According to the 5-month model, dogs with a relatively low risk of 5-month mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy treatment. In the present study, we externally validated these results using an independent cohort study of 794 dogs. External performance of our prediction models showed some disagreement between observed and predicted risk, mean difference: -0.11 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]-0.29; 0.08) for 5-month risk and 0.25 (95%CI 0.10; 0.40) for 1-year mortality risk. After updating the intercept, agreement improved: -0.0004 (95%CI-0.16; 0.16) and -0.002 (95%CI-0.15; 0.15). The chemotherapy by predicted mortality risk interaction (P-value=0.01) showed that the chemotherapy compared to no chemotherapy effectiveness was modified by 5-month mortality risk: dogs with a relatively lower risk of mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy. Chemotherapy effectiveness on 1-year mortality was not significantly modified by predicted risk (P-value=0.28). In conclusion, this external validation study confirmed that our multivariable risk prediction models can predict a patient's mortality risk and that dogs with a relatively lower risk of 5-month mortality seem to benefit most from chemotherapy.

  1. United States black:white infant mortality disparities are not inevitable: identification of community resilience independent of socioeconomic status.

    PubMed

    Fry-Johnson, Yvonne W; Levine, Robert; Rowley, Diane; Agboto, Vincent; Rust, George

    2010-01-01

    U.S. disparities in Black:White infant mortality are persistent. National trends, however, may obscure local successes. Zero-corrected, negative binomial multivariable modeling was used to predict Black infant mortality (1999-2003) in all U.S. counties with reliable rates. Independent variables included county population size, racial composition, educational attainment, poverty, income and geographic origin. Resilient counties were defined as those whose Black infant mortality rate residual score was < 2.0. Mortality data was accessed from the Compressed Mortality File compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics and found on the CDC WONDER website. Demographic information was obtained from the US Census. The final model included the percentage of Blacks, age 18 to 64 years, speaking little or no English (P < .008), a socioeconomic index comprising educational attainment, poverty, and per capita income (P < .001), and household income in 1990 (P < .001). After accounting for these factors, a stratum comprising Essex and Plymouth Counties, Mass.; Bronx, N.Y.; and Multnomah, Ore. was identified as unusually resilient. Percentage of Black poverty and educational attainment in Black women in the resilient stratum approximated the average for all 330 counties. In 1979, Black infant mortality in the resilient stratum (23.6 per 1000 live births) exceeded Black US infant mortality (22.6). By 2001, Black infant mortality in the resilient stratum (5.6) was below the corresponding value for Whites (5.7). Resilient county neonatal mortality declined both early and late in the observation period, while post-neonatal declines were most marked after 1996. Models for reduction/elimination of racial disparities in US infant mortality, independent from county-level contextual measures of socioeconomic status, may already exist.

  2. UNITED STATES BLACK:WHITE INFANT MORTALITY DISPARITIES ARE NOT INEVITABLE: IDENTIFICATION OF COMMUNITY RESILIENCE INDEPENDENT OF SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS

    PubMed Central

    Fry-Johnson, Yvonne W.; Levine, Robert; Rowley, Diane; Agboto, Vincent; Rust, George

    2010-01-01

    Introduction US disparities in Black:White infant mortality are persistent. National trends, however, may obscure local successes. Methods Zero-corrected, negative binomial multivariable modeling was used to predict Black infant mortality (1999–2003) in all US counties with reliable rates. Independent variables included county population size, racial composition, educational attainment, poverty, income and geographic origin. Resilient counties were defined as those whose Black infant mortality rate residual score was <2.0. Mortality data was accessed from the Compressed Mortality File compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics and found on the CDC WONDER website. Demographic information was obtained from the US Census. Results The final model included the percentage of Blacks, age 18 to 64 years, speaking little or no English (P<.008), a socioeconomic index comprising educational attainment, poverty, and per capita income (P<.001), and household income in 1990 (P<.001). After accounting for these factors, a stratum comprising Essex and Plymouth Counties, Mass.; Bronx, N.Y.; and Multnomah, Ore. was identified as unusually resilient. Percentage of Black poverty and educational attainment in Black women in the resilient stratum approximated the average for all 330 counties, In 1979, Black infant mortality in the resilient stratum (23.6 per 1,000 live births) exceeded Black US infant mortality (22.6). By 2001, Black infant mortality in the resilient stratum (5.6) was below the corresponding value for Whites (5.7). Resilient county neonatal mortality declined both early and late in the observation period, while post-neonatal declines were most marked after 1996. Conclusions Models for reduction/elimination of racial disparities in US infant mortality, independent from county-level contextual measures of socioeconomic status, may already exist. PMID:20521401

  3. Quantifying density-independent mortality of temperate tree species

    Treesearch

    Heather E Lintz; Andrew N. Gray; Andrew Yost; Richard Sniezko; Chris Woodall; Matt Reilly; Karen Hutten; Mark Elliott

    2016-01-01

    Forest resilience to climate change is a topic of national concern as our standing assets and future forestsare important to our livelihood. Many tree species are predicted to decline or disappear while othersmay be able to adapt or migrate. Efforts to quantify and disseminate the current condition of forests areurgently needed to guide management and policy. Here, we...

  4. Urinary Sodium Concentration Is an Independent Predictor of All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in a Type 2 Diabetes Cohort Population

    PubMed Central

    Gand, Elise; Ragot, Stéphanie; Bankir, Lise; Piguel, Xavier; Fumeron, Frédéric; Halimi, Jean-Michel; Marechaud, Richard; Roussel, Ronan; Hadjadj, Samy; Study group, SURDIAGENE

    2017-01-01

    Objective. Sodium intake is associated with cardiovascular outcomes. However, no study has specifically reported an association between cardiovascular mortality and urinary sodium concentration (UNa). We examined the association of UNa with mortality in a cohort of type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients. Methods. Patients were followed for all-cause death and cardiovascular death. Baseline UNa was measured from second morning spot urinary sample. We used Cox proportional hazard models to identify independent predictors of mortality. Improvement in prediction of mortality by the addition of UNa to a model including known risk factors was assessed by the relative integrated discrimination improvement (rIDI) index. Results. Participants (n = 1,439) were followed for a median of 5.7 years, during which 254 cardiovascular deaths and 429 all-cause deaths were recorded. UNa independently predicted all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. An increase of one standard deviation of UNa was associated with a decrease of 21% of all-cause mortality and 22% of cardiovascular mortality. UNa improved all-cause and cardiovascular mortality prediction beyond identified risk factors (rIDI = 2.8%, P = 0.04 and rIDI = 4.6%, P = 0.02, resp.). Conclusions. In T2D, UNa was an independent predictor of mortality (low concentration is associated with increased risk) and improved modestly its prediction in addition to traditional risk factors. PMID:28255559

  5. Interpretable Topic Features for Post-ICU Mortality Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Yen-Fu; Rumshisky, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Electronic health records provide valuable resources for understanding the correlation between various diseases and mortality. The analysis of post-discharge mortality is critical for healthcare professionals to follow up potential causes of death after a patient is discharged from the hospital and give prompt treatment. Moreover, it may reduce the cost derived from readmissions and improve the quality of healthcare. Our work focused on post-discharge ICU mortality prediction. In addition to features derived from physiological measurements, we incorporated ICD-9-CM hierarchy into Bayesian topic model learning and extracted topic features from medical notes. We achieved highest AUCs of 0.835 and 0.829 for 30-day and 6-month post-discharge mortality prediction using baseline and topic proportions derived from Labeled-LDA. Moreover, our work emphasized the interpretability of topic features derived from topic model which may facilitates the understanding and investigation of the complexity between mortality and diseases. PMID:28269879

  6. Global trends and predictions in hepatocellular carcinoma mortality.

    PubMed

    Bertuccio, Paola; Turati, Federica; Carioli, Greta; Rodriguez, Teresa; La Vecchia, Carlo; Malvezzi, Matteo; Negri, Eva

    2017-08-01

    Trends in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality rates have increased over recent decades in most countries. It is also the third cause of cancer death worldwide. The aim of this study is to update global trends in HCC mortality to 2014, and predict trends in rates in the EU, USA and Japan to 2020. Death certification data for HCC over the 1990-2014 period from the World Health Organization database were analyzed. Sixteen European, five American countries, and six other countries worldwide were included, as well as the EU as a whole. In European men, mortality rates were stable during the last decade (3.5/100,000). HCC mortality increased in Northern and Central Europe, and decreased in Southern Europe. In the USA, HCC mortality increased by 35% between 2002 and 2012, reaching 3.1/100,000 men in 2012; it is predicted to remain stable to 2020. Reduced mortality rates were observed in East Asia, although they remained around 10-24/100,000 men. In Japan, HCC mortality is predicted to decrease (5.4/100,000 men in 2020). Trends were favorable in the young, but unfavorable in middle aged, except in East Asia. Mortality rates were 3- to 5-fold lower in women than men in most regions, but trends were similar. Control of hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections has contributed to the decrease in HCC-related mortality in East Asia and Southern Europe. Unfavorable trends in other regions can be attributed to HCV (and HBV) epidemics in the 1960s and 1980s, alcohol consumption, increased overweight/obesity, and diabetes. Better management of cirrhosis, HCC diagnosis and treatment are also influencing the mortality trends worldwide. Mortality rates due to HCC have increased in many countries over recent decades. In this study, we updated worldwide mortality trends for HCC from 1990 to 2014, and predicted trends for some countries to 2020. We observed unfavorable trends in Northern and Central Europe, North and Latin America. East Asia showed an improvement

  7. Forearm bone mass predicts mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Orlic, Lidija; Mikolasevic, Ivana; Crncevic-Orlic, Zeljka; Jakopcic, Ivan; Josipovic, Josipa; Pavlovic, Drasko

    2016-07-27

    We aim to determine the relationship between bone mineral density (BMD), measured by T- and Z-score, and mortality risk in hemodialysis (HD) patients. We also investigate which are the most suitable skeletal sites for predicting mortality rate. We analyzed the survival of 102 patients who had been treated with chronic HD according to BMD. Patients with a T-score ≤2.5 at the middle, ultradistal and proximal part of the forearm had a higher mortality risk than those with a T-score of -2.5 or higher. Furthermore, no statistically significant association was found between loss of bone mass at other measuring points-lumbar spine (anteroposterior orientation from L1-L4) and hip (neck, trochanter, intertrochanter, total and Ward's triangle)-and mortality risk. We were also interested in exploring the relationship between Z-score at different skeletal regions and mortality risk. We found that patients with a Z-score of -1 or lower at all three parts of the forearm had a greater mortality risk. It is also worth noting that the Z-score at all three parts of the forearm was a more apparent predictor of mortality, compared to the T-score at the same skeletal regions. This empirical analysis showed that BMD assessments should be obtained at the forearm, due to the good predictability of this skeletal site regarding mortality of HD patients. Moreover, data concerning bone density should be reported as Z-scores.

  8. Adolescent-onset substance use disorders predict young adult mortality

    PubMed Central

    Clark, Duncan B.; Martin, Christopher S.; Cornelius, Jack R.

    2009-01-01

    This study determined whether adolescent-onset substance use disorders (SUDs) prospectively predicted early mortality. Among 870 adolescents, 21 young adulthood deaths were observed. Adolescent SUDs, as well as gender, ethnic group, hazardous substance use, and drug trafficking, predicted these deaths. Among African American males with SUDs, 23% died by age 25. PMID:18486875

  9. Towards more accurate vegetation mortality predictions

    DOE PAGES

    Sevanto, Sanna Annika; Xu, Chonggang

    2016-09-26

    Predicting the fate of vegetation under changing climate is one of the major challenges of the climate modeling community. Here, terrestrial vegetation dominates the carbon and water cycles over land areas, and dramatic changes in vegetation cover resulting from stressful environmental conditions such as drought feed directly back to local and regional climate, potentially leading to a vicious cycle where vegetation recovery after a disturbance is delayed or impossible.

  10. Towards more accurate vegetation mortality predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Sevanto, Sanna Annika; Xu, Chonggang

    2016-09-26

    Predicting the fate of vegetation under changing climate is one of the major challenges of the climate modeling community. Here, terrestrial vegetation dominates the carbon and water cycles over land areas, and dramatic changes in vegetation cover resulting from stressful environmental conditions such as drought feed directly back to local and regional climate, potentially leading to a vicious cycle where vegetation recovery after a disturbance is delayed or impossible.

  11. An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation.

    PubMed

    Candido Dos Reis, Francisco J; Wishart, Gordon C; Dicks, Ed M; Greenberg, David; Rashbass, Jem; Schmidt, Marjanka K; van den Broek, Alexandra J; Ellis, Ian O; Green, Andrew; Rakha, Emad; Maishman, Tom; Eccles, Diana M; Pharoah, Paul D P

    2017-05-22

    PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in 'step' changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age

  12. Lung function indices for predicting mortality in COPD

    PubMed Central

    Boutou, Afroditi K.; Shrikrishna, Dinesh; Tanner, Rebecca J.; Smith, Cayley; Kelly, Julia L.; Ward, Simon P.; Polkey, Michael I.; Hopkinson, Nicholas S.

    2013-01-01

    Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterised by high morbidity and mortality. It remains unknown which aspect of lung function carries the most prognostic information and if simple spirometry is sufficient. Survival was assessed in COPD outpatients whose data had been added prospectively to a clinical audit database from the point of first full lung function testing including spirometry, lung volumes, gas transfer and arterial blood gases. Variables univariately associated with survival were entered into a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. 604 patients were included (mean±sd age 61.9±9.7 years; forced expiratory volume in 1 s 37±18.1% predicted; 62.9% males); 229 (37.9%) died during a median follow-up of 83 months. Median survival was 91.9 (95% CI 80.8–103) months with survival rates at 3 and 5 years 0.83 and 0.66, respectively. Carbon monoxide transfer factor % pred quartiles (best quartile (>51%): HR 0.33, 95% CI 0.172–0.639; and second quartile (51–37.3%): HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.322–0.825; versus lowest quartile (<27.9%)), age (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02–1.06) and arterial oxygen partial pressure (HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.77–0.94) were the only parameters independently associated with mortality. Measurement of gas transfer provides additional prognostic information compared to spirometry in patients under hospital follow-up and could be considered routinely. PMID:23349449

  13. Cancer mortality predictions for 2017 in Latin America.

    PubMed

    Carioli, G; La Vecchia, C; Bertuccio, P; Rodriguez, T; Levi, F; Boffetta, P; Negri, E; Malvezzi, M

    2017-09-01

    From most recent available data, we predicted cancer mortality statistics in selected Latin American countries for the year 2017, with focus on lung cancer. We obtained death certification data from the World Health Organization and population data from the Pan American Health Organization database for all neoplasms and selected cancer sites. We derived figures for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela. Using a logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint model, we estimated number of deaths and age-standardized (world population) mortality rates in 2017. Total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline in all countries. The highest mortality rates for 2017 are in Cuba, i.e. 132.3/100 000 men and 93.3/100 000 women. Mexico had the lowest predicted rates, 64.7/100 000 men and 60.6/100 000 women. In contrast, the total number of cancer deaths is expected to rise due to population ageing and growth. Men showed declines in lung cancer trends in all countries and age groups considered, while only Colombian and Mexican women had downward trends. Stomach and (cervix) uteri rates are predicted to continue their declines, though mortality from these neoplasms remains comparatively high. Colorectal, breast and prostate cancer rates were predicted to decline moderately, as well as leukaemias. There was no clear pattern for pancreatic cancer. Between 1990 and 2017 about 420 000 cancer deaths were avoided in 5 of the 7 countries, no progress was observed in Brazil and Cuba. Cancer mortality rates for 2017 in seven selected Latin American countries are predicted to decline, though there was appreciable variability across countries. Mortality from major cancers-including lung and prostate-and all cancers remains comparatively high in Cuba, indicating the need for improved prevention and management.

  14. Mortality risk prediction in burn injury: Comparison of logistic regression with machine learning approaches.

    PubMed

    Stylianou, Neophytos; Akbarov, Artur; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Buchan, Iain; Dunn, Ken W

    2015-08-01

    Predicting mortality from burn injury has traditionally employed logistic regression models. Alternative machine learning methods have been introduced in some areas of clinical prediction as the necessary software and computational facilities have become accessible. Here we compare logistic regression and machine learning predictions of mortality from burn. An established logistic mortality model was compared to machine learning methods (artificial neural network, support vector machine, random forests and naïve Bayes) using a population-based (England & Wales) case-cohort registry. Predictive evaluation used: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; sensitivity; specificity; positive predictive value and Youden's index. All methods had comparable discriminatory abilities, similar sensitivities, specificities and positive predictive values. Although some machine learning methods performed marginally better than logistic regression the differences were seldom statistically significant and clinically insubstantial. Random forests were marginally better for high positive predictive value and reasonable sensitivity. Neural networks yielded slightly better prediction overall. Logistic regression gives an optimal mix of performance and interpretability. The established logistic regression model of burn mortality performs well against more complex alternatives. Clinical prediction with a small set of strong, stable, independent predictors is unlikely to gain much from machine learning outside specialist research contexts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

  15. Prediction of mortality rates using a model with stochastic parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

    2016-10-01

    Prediction of future mortality rates is crucial to insurance companies because they face longevity risks while providing retirement benefits to a population whose life expectancy is increasing. In the past literature, a time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied on mortality data from the United States for the years 1933 till 2000 to forecast the future mortality rates for the years 2001 till 2010. In this paper, a more dynamic approach based on the multivariate time series will be proposed where the model uses stochastic parameters that vary with time. The resulting prediction intervals obtained using the model with stochastic parameters perform better because apart from having good ability in covering the observed future mortality rates, they also tend to have distinctly shorter interval lengths.

  16. Short-Term Mortality Prediction for Acute Lung Injury Patients: External Validation of the ARDSNet Prediction Model

    PubMed Central

    Damluji, Abdulla; Colantuoni, Elizabeth; Mendez-Tellez, Pedro A.; Sevransky, Jonathan E.; Fan, Eddy; Shanholtz, Carl; Wojnar, Margaret; Pronovost, Peter J.; Needham, Dale M.

    2011-01-01

    Objective An independent cohort of acute lung injury (ALI) patients was used to evaluate the external validity of a simple prediction model for short-term mortality previously developed using data from ARDS Network (ARDSNet) trials. Design, Setting, and Patients Data for external validation were obtained from a prospective cohort study of ALI patients from 13 ICUs at four teaching hospitals in Baltimore, Maryland. Measurements and Main Results Of the 508 non-trauma, ALI patients eligible for this analysis, 234 (46%) died in-hospital. Discrimination of the ARDSNet prediction model for inhospital mortality, evaluated by the area under the receiver operator characteristics curves (AUC), was 0.67 for our external validation dataset versus 0.70 and 0.68 using APACHE II and the ARDSNet validation dataset, respectively. In evaluating calibration of the model, predicted versus observed in-hospital mortality for the external validation dataset was similar for both low risk (ARDSNet model score = 0) and high risk (score = 3 or 4+) patient strata. However, for intermediate risk (score = 1 or 2) patients, observed in-hospital mortality was substantially higher than predicted mortality (25.3% vs. 16.5% and 40.6% vs. 31.0% for score = 1 and 2, respectively). Sensitivity analyses limiting our external validation data set to only those patients meeting the ARDSNet trial eligibility criteria and to those who received mechanical ventilation in compliance with the ARDSNet ventilation protocol, did not substantially change the model’s discrimination or improve its calibration. Conclusions Evaluation of the ARDSNet prediction model using an external ALI cohort demonstrated similar discrimination of the model as was observed with the ARDSNet validation dataset. However, there were substantial differences in observed versus predicted mortality among intermediate risk ALI patients. The ARDSNet model provided reasonable, but imprecise, estimates of predicted mortality when applied to our

  17. A simple score for predicting mortality in patients with pneumatosis intestinalis.

    PubMed

    Lee, Ho-Su; Cho, Young-Whan; Kim, Kyung-Jo; Lee, Jong Seok; Lee, Seung Soo; Yang, Suk-Kyun

    2014-04-01

    This study was conducted to identify simple computerized tomography (CT) and clinical predictors of mortality in patients with pneumatosis intestinalis (PI). Thus, the clinical characteristics and outcomes of PI were assessed and the predictors of mortality were identified. The medical records of 123 patients with PI were reviewed retrospectively. Multivariate logistic regression models were constructed to determine independent predictors of mortality. These data were used to develop a simple score that would predict mortality on the first and seventh day after diagnosis. The median age at diagnosis was 62 (range, 20-91) years. The most common cause of PI was mesenteric vascular ischemia (n=43, 35.0%). Twenty-nine (23.6%) disease-related deaths occurred during the index admission. Both signs of peritoneal irritation on physical examination and decreased or absent enhancement of the bowel wall were associated with increased mortality. If both factors were absent, the in-hospital mortalities on both the first and seventh days after the diagnosis of PI were less than 5%. However, if both factors were present, the in-hospital mortality was 57% on the first day and 59% on the seventh day. A simple and novel risk score that predicts mortality in patients with PI was proposed. Patients with both peritoneal irritation and decreased or absent enhancement of bowel wall on CT should be observed vigilantly and early intervention should be instituted. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Predicting 30-day mortality of aortic valve replacement by the AVR score.

    PubMed

    Swinkels, B M; Vermeulen, F E E; Kelder, J C; van Boven, W J; Plokker, H W M; Ten Berg, J M

    2011-06-01

    The objective of this study is to develop a simple risk score to predict 30-day mortality of aortic valve replacement (AVR). In a development set of 673 consecutive patients who underwent AVR between 1990 and 1993, four independent predictors for 30-day mortality were identified: body mass index (BMI) ≥30, BMI <20, previous coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and recent myocardial infarction. Based on these predictors, a 30-day mortality risk score-the AVR score-was developed. The AVR score was validated on a validation set of 673 consecutive patients who underwent AVR almost two decennia later in the same hospital. Thirty-day mortality in the development set was ≤2% in the absence of any predictor (class I, low risk), 2-5% in the solitary presence of BMI ≥30 (class II, mild risk), 5-15% in the solitary presence of previous CABG or recent myocardial infarction (class III, moderate risk), and >15% in the solitary presence of BMI <20, or any combination of BMI ≥30, previous CABG or recent myocardial infarction (class IV, high risk). The AVR score correctly predicted 30-day mortality in the validation set: observed 30-day mortality in the validation set was 2.3% in 487 class I patients, 4.4% in 137 class II patients, 13.3% in 30 class III patients and 15.8% in 19 class IV patients. The AVR score is a simple risk score validated to predict 30-day mortality of AVR.

  19. Multi-scale predictions of coniferous forest mortality in the northern hemisphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDowell, N. G.

    2015-12-01

    Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our incomplete understanding of the fundamental physiological thresholds of vegetation mortality during drought limits our ability to accurately simulate future vegetation distributions and associated climate feedbacks. Here we integrate experimental evidence with models to show potential widespread loss of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET; ~ conifers) within the Southwest USA by 2100; with rising temperature being the primary cause of mortality. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ypd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, stomatal and hydraulic conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. Empirical and mechanistic models accurately predicted NET Ypd, and 91% of predictions (10/11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the 21st century due to temperature rise. Completely independent global models predicted >50% loss of northern hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the findings for Southwest USA. The global models disagreed with the ecosystem process models in regards to future mortality in Southwest USA, however, highlighting the potential underestimates of future NET mortality as simulated by the global models and signifying the importance of improving regional predictions. Taken together, these results from the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict global-scale conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

  20. Predicting 15 year chronic bronchitis mortality in the Whitehall Study.

    PubMed Central

    Ebi-Kryston, K L

    1989-01-01

    Fifteen year chronic bronchitis mortality was investigated among 17,717 male civil servants aged 40-64 years participating in the Whitehall Study. Associations were assessed between mortality and Medical Research Council standardised questions about chronic phlegm production and breathlessness, and a measure of lung function. Low FEV1 was the most powerful single predictor of mortality; controlling for age, smoking habits and employment grade, the relative hazards ratio (RHR) was 20. Using mortality rates standardised for age and smoking, the proportion of mortality in the total population statistically attributable to low FEV1 (population excess fraction) was 57%. Breathlessness while walking on the level was the best predictor among the questions and combinations of questions; the relative hazards ratio was 12 and the population excess fraction, 39%. A Medical Research Council definition of chronic bronchitis including chronic phlegm production and breathlessness was also strongly associated with chronic bronchitis mortality (RHR = 13); however, the population excess fraction was only 20%. This definition identified only 30% of the 64 deaths, and added almost nothing to prediction by FEV1 alone. The results suggest that although the combination of chronic phlegm production and chronic airflow limitation is strongly associated with mortality from chronic bronchitis, the presence of chronic phlegm production alone is not associated with mortality. PMID:2592906

  1. The independent contribution of diabetic foot ulcer on lower extremity amputation and mortality risk.

    PubMed

    Martins-Mendes, Daniela; Monteiro-Soares, Matilde; Boyko, Edward John; Ribeiro, Manuela; Barata, Pedro; Lima, Jorge; Soares, Raquel

    2014-01-01

    To estimate 3-year risk for diabetic foot ulcer (DFU), lower extremity amputation (LEA) and death; determine predictive variables and assess derived models accuracy. Retrospective cohort study including all subjects with diabetes enrolled in our diabetic foot outpatient clinic from beginning 2002 until middle 2010. Data were collected from clinical records. 644 subjects with mean age of 65.1 (±11.2) and diabetes duration of 16.1 (±10.8) years. Cumulative incidence was 26.6% for DFU, 5.8% for LEA and 14.0% for death. In multivariate analysis, physical impairment, peripheral arterial disease complication history, complication count and previous DFU were associated with DFU; complication count, foot pulses and previous DFU with LEA and age, complication count and previous DFU with death. Predictive models' areas under the ROC curves ranged from 0.80 to 0.83. A simplified model including previous DFU and complication count presented high accuracy. Previous DFU was associated with all outcomes, even when adjusted for complication count, in addition to more complex models. DFU seems more than a marker of complication status, having independent impact on LEA and mortality risk. Proposed models may be applicable in healthcare settings to identify patients at higher risk of DFU, LEA and death. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. The independent contribution of diabetic foot ulcer on lower extremity amputation and mortality risk

    PubMed Central

    Martins-Mendes, D.; Monteiro-Soares, M.; Boyko, E. J.; Ribeiro, M.; Barata, P.; Lima, J.; Soares, R.

    2014-01-01

    Aims To estimate 3-year risk for diabetic foot ulcer (DFU), lower extremity amputation (LEA) and death; determine predictive variables and assess derived models accuracy. Material and Methods Retrospective cohort study including all subjects with diabetes enrolled in our diabetic foot outpatient clinic from beginning 2002 until middle 2010. Data was collected from clinical records. Results 644 subjects with mean age of 65.1 (±11.2) and diabetes duration of 16.1 (±10.8) years. Cumulative incidence was 26.6% for DFU, 5.8% for LEA and 14.0% for death. In multivariate analysis, physical impairment, peripheral arterial disease complication history, complication count and previous DFU were associated with DFU; complication count, foot pulses and previous DFU with LEA and age, complication count and previous DFU with death. Predictive models’ areas under the ROC curves from 0.80 to 0.83. A simplified model including previous DFU and complication count presented high accuracy. Previous DFU was associated with all outcomes, even when adjusted for complication count, in addition to more complex models. Conclusions DFU seems more than a marker of complication status, having independent impact on LEA and mortality risk. Proposed models may be applicable in healthcare settings to identify patients at higher risk of DFU, LEA and death. PMID:24877985

  3. Validated Risk Score for Predicting 6-Month Mortality in Infective Endocarditis.

    PubMed

    Park, Lawrence P; Chu, Vivian H; Peterson, Gail; Skoutelis, Athanasios; Lejko-Zupa, Tatjana; Bouza, Emilio; Tattevin, Pierre; Habib, Gilbert; Tan, Ren; Gonzalez, Javier; Altclas, Javier; Edathodu, Jameela; Fortes, Claudio Querido; Siciliano, Rinaldo Focaccia; Pachirat, Orathai; Kanj, Souha; Wang, Andrew

    2016-04-18

    Host factors and complications have been associated with higher mortality in infective endocarditis (IE). We sought to develop and validate a model of clinical characteristics to predict 6-month mortality in IE. Using a large multinational prospective registry of definite IE (International Collaboration on Endocarditis [ICE]-Prospective Cohort Study [PCS], 2000-2006, n=4049), a model to predict 6-month survival was developed by Cox proportional hazards modeling with inverse probability weighting for surgery treatment and was internally validated by the bootstrapping method. This model was externally validated in an independent prospective registry (ICE-PLUS, 2008-2012, n=1197). The 6-month mortality was 971 of 4049 (24.0%) in the ICE-PCS cohort and 342 of 1197 (28.6%) in the ICE-PLUS cohort. Surgery during the index hospitalization was performed in 48.1% and 54.0% of the cohorts, respectively. In the derivation model, variables related to host factors (age, dialysis), IE characteristics (prosthetic or nosocomial IE, causative organism, left-sided valve vegetation), and IE complications (severe heart failure, stroke, paravalvular complication, and persistent bacteremia) were independently associated with 6-month mortality, and surgery was associated with a lower risk of mortality (Harrell's C statistic 0.715). In the validation model, these variables had similar hazard ratios (Harrell's C statistic 0.682), with a similar, independent benefit of surgery (hazard ratio 0.74, 95% CI 0.62-0.89). A simplified risk model was developed by weight adjustment of these variables. Six-month mortality after IE is ≈25% and is predicted by host factors, IE characteristics, and IE complications. Surgery during the index hospitalization is associated with lower mortality but is performed less frequently in the highest risk patients. A simplified risk model may be used to identify specific risk subgroups in IE. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart

  4. Syndecan-4 Is an Independent Predictor of All-Cause as Well as Cardiovascular Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Jaroszyński, Andrzej J.; Jaroszyńska, Anna; Przywara, Stanisław; Zaborowski, Tomasz; Książek, Andrzej; Dąbrowski, Wojciech

    2016-01-01

    Background Left ventricular hypertrophy is associated withincreased mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients.Syndecan-4 plays a role in many processes that are involved in the heart fibrosis and hypertrophy.We designed this study to prospectively determine whether syndecan-4 was predictive of mortality in a group of HD patients. Methods In total, 191 HD patients were included. Clinical, biochemical and echocardiographic parameters were recorded. HD patients were followed-up for 23.18 ± 4.02 months. Results Syndecan-4 levels correlated strongly with geometrical echocardiographic parameters and ejection fraction. Relations with pressure-related parameters were weak and only marginally significant. Using the receiver operating characteristics the optimal cut-off points in predicting all-cause as well as cardiovascular (CV) mortality were evaluated and patients were divided into low and high syndecan-4 groups. A Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the cumulative incidences of all-cause as well as CV mortality were higher in high serum syndecan-4 group compared with those with low serum syndecan-4 (p<0.001 in both cases).A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis revealed syndecan-4 concentration to be an independent and significant predictor of all-cause (hazard ratio, 2.99; confidence interval, 2.34 to 3.113; p<0.001)as well as CV mortality (hazard ratio, 2.81;confidence interval, 2.28to3.02; p<0.001). Conclusions Serum syndecan-4 concentration reflects predominantly geometrical echocardiographic parameters. In HD patients serum syndecan-4 concentration is independently associated with all-cause as well as CV mortality. PMID:27685148

  5. Pre-dialysis systolic blood pressure-variability is independently associated with all-cause mortality in incident haemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Selvarajah, Viknesh; Pasea, Laura; Ojha, Sanjay; Wilkinson, Ian B; Tomlinson, Laurie A

    2014-01-01

    Systolic blood pressure variability is an independent risk factor for mortality and cardiovascular events. Standard measures of blood pressure predict outcome poorly in haemodialysis patients. We investigated whether systolic blood pressure variability was associated with mortality in incident haemodialysis patients. We performed a longitudinal observational study of patients commencing haemodialysis between 2005 and 2011 in East Anglia, UK, excluding patients with cardiovascular events within 6 months of starting haemodialysis. The main exposure was variability independent of the mean (VIM) of systolic blood pressure from short-gap, pre-dialysis blood pressure readings between 3 and 6 months after commencing haemodialysis, and the outcome was all-cause mortality. Of 203 patients, 37 (18.2%) patients died during a mean follow-up of 2.0 (SD 1.3) years. The age and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for mortality was 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.17) for a one-unit increase of VIM. This was not altered by adjustment for diabetes, prior cardiovascular disease and mean systolic blood pressure (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02-1.16). Patients with VIM of systolic blood pressure above the median were 2.4 (95% CI 1.17-4.74) times more likely to die during follow-up than those below the median. Results were similar for all measures of blood pressure variability and further adjustment for type of dialysis access, use of antihypertensives and absolute or variability of fluid intake did not alter these findings. Diastolic blood pressure variability showed no association with all cause mortality. Our study shows that variability of systolic blood pressure is a strong and independent predictor of all-cause mortality in incident haemodialysis patients. Further research is needed to understand the mechanism as this may form a therapeutic target or focus for management.

  6. Using liver enzymes as screening tests to predict mortality risk.

    PubMed

    Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

    2008-01-01

    Determine the relationship between liver function test results (GGT, alkaline phosphatase, AST, and ALT) and all-cause mortality in life insurance applicants. By use of the Social Security Master Death File, mortality was examined in 1,905,664 insurance applicants for whom blood samples were submitted to the Clinical Reference Laboratory. There were 50,174 deaths observed in this study population. Results were stratified by 3 age/sex groups: females, age <60; males, age <60; and all, age 60+. Liver function test values were grouped using percentiles of their distribution in these 3 age/sex groups, as well as ranges of actual values. Using the risk of the middle 50% of the population by distribution as a reference, relative mortality observed for GGT and alkaline phosphatase was linear with a steep slope from very low to relatively high values. Relative mortality was increased at lower values for both AST and ALT. ALT did not predict mortality for values above the middle 50% of its distribution. GGT and alkaline phosphatase are significant predictors of mortality risk for all values. ALT is still useful for triggering further testing for hepatitis, but AST should be used instead to assess mortality risk linked with transaminases.

  7. Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McDowell, Nathan G.; Williams, A.P.; Xu, C.; Pockman, W. T.; Dickman, L. T.; Sevanto, S.; Pangle, R.; Limousin, J.; Plaut, J.J.; Mackay, D.S.; Ogee, J.; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Allen, Craig D.; Fisher, Rosie A.; Jiang, X.; Muss, J.D.; Breshears, D.D.; Rauscher, Sara A.; Koven, C.

    2016-01-01

    Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests1, 2and their associated climatic feedbacks3, 4. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain5, 6 in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April–August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted ≥50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

  8. Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDowell, N. G.; Williams, A. P.; Xu, C.; Pockman, W. T.; Dickman, L. T.; Sevanto, S.; Pangle, R.; Limousin, J.; Plaut, J.; Mackay, D. S.; Ogee, J.; Domec, J. C.; Allen, C. D.; Fisher, R. A.; Jiang, X.; Muss, J. D.; Breshears, D. D.; Rauscher, S. A.; Koven, C.

    2016-03-01

    Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted >=50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

  9. Predicting postoperative mortality after colorectal surgery: a novel clinical model.

    PubMed

    van der Sluis, F J; Espin, E; Vallribera, F; de Bock, G H; Hoekstra, H J; van Leeuwen, B L; Engel, A F

    2014-08-01

    The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a clinically, practical and discriminative prediction model designed to estimate in-hospital mortality of patients undergoing colorectal surgery. All consecutive patients who underwent elective or emergency colorectal surgery from 1990 to 2005, at the Zaandam Medical Centre, The Netherlands, were included in this study. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) linking the explanatory variables to the outcome variable in-hospital mortality, and a simplified Identification of Risk in Colorectal Surgery (IRCS) score was constructed. The model was validated in a population of patients who underwent colorectal surgery from 2005 to 2011 in Barcelona, Spain. Predictive performance was estimated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The strongest predictors of in-hospital mortality were emergency surgery (OR = 6.7, 95% CI 4.7-9.5), tumour stage (OR = 3.2, 95% CI 2.8-4.6), age (OR = 13.1, 95% CI 6.6-26.0), pulmonary failure (OR = 4.9, 95% CI 3.3-7.1) and cardiac failure (OR = 3.7, 95% CI 2.6-5.3). These parameters were included in the prediction model and simplified scoring system. The IRCS model predicted in-hospital mortality and demonstrated a predictive performance of 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87) in the validation population. In this population the predictive performance of the CR-POSSUM score was 0.76 (95% CI 0.71-0.81). The results of this study have shown that the IRCS score is a good predictor of in-hospital mortality after colorectal surgery despite the relatively low number of model parameters. Colorectal Disease © 2014 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  10. Cytokine activation is predictive of mortality in Zambian patients with AIDS-related diarrhoea.

    PubMed

    Zulu, Isaac; Hassan, Ghaniah; Njobvu R N, Lungowe; Dhaliwal, Winnie; Sianongo, Sandie; Kelly, Paul

    2008-11-13

    Mortality in Zambian AIDS patients is high, especially in patients with diarrhoea, and there is still unacceptably high mortality in Zambian patients just starting anti-retroviral therapy. We set out to determine if high concentrations of serum cytokines correlate with mortality. Serum samples from 30 healthy controls (HIV seropositive and seronegative) and 50 patients with diarrhoea (20 of whom died within 6 weeks) were analysed. Concentrations of tumour necrosis factor receptor p55 (TNFR p55), macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF), interleukin (IL)-6, IL-12, interferon (IFN)-gamma and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured by ELISA, and correlated with mortality after 6 weeks follow-up. Apart from IL-12, concentrations of all cytokines, TNFR p55 and CRP increased with worsening severity of disease, showing highly statistically significant trends. In a multivariable analysis high TNFR p55, IFN-gamma, CRP and low CD4 count (CD4 count <100) were predictive of mortality. Although nutritional status (assessed by body mass index, BMI) was predictive in univariate analysis, it was not an independent predictor in multivariate analysis. High serum concentrations of TNFR p55, IFN-gamma, CRP and low CD4 count correlated with disease severity and short-term mortality in HIV-infected Zambian adults with diarrhoea. These factors were better predictors of survival than BMI. Understanding the cause of TNFR p55, IFN-gamma and CRP elevation may be useful in development of interventions to reduce mortality in AIDS patients with chronic diarrhoea in Africa.

  11. Impulsivity is an Independent Predictor of 15-Year Mortality Risk among Individuals Seeking Help for Alcohol-Related Problems

    PubMed Central

    Blonigen, Daniel M.; Timko, Christine; Moos, Bernice S.; Moos, Rudolf H.

    2011-01-01

    Background Although past research has found impulsivity to be a significant predictor of mortality, no studies have tested this association in samples of individuals with alcohol-related problems or examined moderation of this effect via socio-contextual processes. The current study addressed these issues in a mixed-gender sample of individuals seeking help for alcohol-related problems. Methods Using Cox proportional hazard models, variables measured at baseline and Year 1 of a 16-year prospective study were used to predict the probability of death from Years 1 to 16 (i.e., 15-year mortality risk). There were 628 participants at baseline (47.1% women); 515 and 405 participated in the follow-up assessments at Years 1 and 16, respectively. Among Year 1 participants, 93 individuals were known to have died between Years 1 to 16. Results After controlling for age, gender, and marital status, higher impulsivity at baseline was associated with an increased risk of mortality from Years 1 to 16; however, this association was accounted for by the severity of alcohol use at baseline. In contrast, higher impulsivity at Year 1 was associated with an increased risk of mortality from Years 1 to 16, and remained significant when accounting for the severity of alcohol use, as well as physical health problems, emotional discharge coping, and interpersonal stress and support at Year 1. In addition, the association between Year 1 impulsivity and 15-year mortality risk was moderated by interpersonal support at Year 1, such that individuals high on impulsivity had a lower mortality risk when peer/friend support was high than when it was low. Conclusions The findings highlight impulsivity as a robust and independent predictor of mortality, and suggest the need to consider interactions between personality traits and socio-contextual processes in the prediction of health-related outcomes for individuals with alcohol use disorders. PMID:21631544

  12. Predicting long-term forest development following hemlock mortality

    Treesearch

    Jennifer C. Jenkins; Charles D. Canham; Paul K. Barten

    2000-01-01

    The hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand.), an introduced pest specializing on eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.), threatens to cause widespread hemlock mortality in New England forests. In this study, we used a stem-based model of forest dynamics (SORTIE) to predict forest development in a northeastern forest...

  13. Predicting mortality for five California conifers following wildfire

    Treesearch

    Sharon M. Hood; Sheri L. Smith; Daniel R. Cluck

    2010-01-01

    Fire injury was characterized and survival monitored for 5677 trees >25cm DBH from five wildfires in California that occurred between 2000 and 2004. Logistic regression models for predicting the probability of mortality 5-years after fire were developed for incense cedar (Calocedrus decurrens (Torr.) Florin), white fir (Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. ex...

  14. The Prediction Predicament: Rethinking Necrotizing Soft Tissue Infections Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Moore, Samantha A.; Levy, Brandon H.; Prematilake, Chalani

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background: Our study sought to identify independent risk factors predisposing patients with necrotizing soft tissue infections (NSTIs) to mortality from among laboratory values, demographic data, and microbiologic findings in a small population. To this end, a retrospective review was conducted of the medical records of all patients with NSTI who had been treated at our institution from 2003 to 2012 (n=134). Methods: Baseline demographics and comorbidities, clinical and laboratory values, hospital course, and the microbiologic characteristics of surgical incision cultures were recorded. Each variable was tested for association with survival status and all associated variables with p<0.15 were included in a logistic regression model to seek factors associated independently with mortality. Results: Surprisingly, no demographic or pre-existing condition proved to be a predictor of mortality. Two laboratory values had an inverse correlation to mortality: High C-reactive protein (CRP) and highest recorded CRP. Of surgical incisions that grew bacteria in culture, 33.6% were polymicrobial. Mortality rates were highest with Enterococcus-containing polymicrobial infections (50%), followed by those containing Pseudomonas (40%), and Streptococcus spp. (27%). Understanding why so many studies across the literature, now including our own, find such disparate results for correlation of NSTI mortality with patient data may lie in the fundamentally dynamic nature of the organisms involved. Conclusions: This study suggests that no single factor present on admission is a robust predictor of outcome; it is likely that survival in NSTI is predicated upon a complex interaction of multiple host and microbial factors that do not lend themselves to reduction into a simple formula. It is also abundantly clear that the well-established principles of NSTI surgery should continue to be followed in all cases, with an emphasis on early debridement, irrespective of apparent severity of

  15. Predicting Discharge Mortality after Acute Ischemic Stroke Using Balanced Data

    PubMed Central

    Ho, King Chung; Speier, William; El-Saden, Suzie; Liebeskind, David S.; Saver, Jeffery L.; Bui, Alex A. T.; Arnold, Corey W.

    2014-01-01

    Several models have been developed to predict stroke outcomes (e.g., stroke mortality, patient dependence, etc.) in recent decades. However, there is little discussion regarding the problem of between-class imbalance in stroke datasets, which leads to prediction bias and decreased performance. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique to overcome such problems. We also compare state of the art machine learning methods and construct a six-variable support vector machine (SVM) model to predict stroke mortality at discharge. Finally, we discuss how the identification of a reduced feature set allowed us to identify additional cases in our research database for validation testing. Our classifier achieved a c-statistic of 0.865 on the cross-validated dataset, demonstrating good classification performance using a reduced set of variables. PMID:25954451

  16. Diagnosis trajectories of prior multi-morbidity predict sepsis mortality

    PubMed Central

    Beck, Mette K.; Jensen, Anders Boeck; Nielsen, Annelaura Bach; Perner, Anders; Moseley, Pope L.; Brunak, Søren

    2016-01-01

    Sepsis affects millions of people every year, many of whom will die. In contrast to current survival prediction models for sepsis patients that primarily are based on data from within-admission clinical measurements (e.g. vital parameters and blood values), we aim for using the full disease history to predict sepsis mortality. We benefit from data in electronic medical records covering all hospital encounters in Denmark from 1996 to 2014. This data set included 6.6 million patients of whom almost 120,000 were diagnosed with the ICD-10 code: A41 ‘Other sepsis’. Interestingly, patients following recurrent trajectories of time-ordered co-morbidities had significantly increased sepsis mortality compared to those who did not follow a trajectory. We identified trajectories which significantly altered sepsis mortality, and found three major starting points in a combined temporal sepsis network: Alcohol abuse, Diabetes and Cardio-vascular diagnoses. Many cancers also increased sepsis mortality. Using the trajectory based stratification model we explain contradictory reports in relation to diabetes that recently have appeared in the literature. Finally, we compared the predictive power using 18.5 years of disease history to scoring based on within-admission clinical measurements emphasizing the value of long term data in novel patient scores that combine the two types of data. PMID:27812043

  17. Coefficient of glucose variation is independently associated with mortality in critically ill patients receiving intravenous insulin.

    PubMed

    Lanspa, Michael J; Dickerson, Justin; Morris, Alan H; Orme, James F; Holmen, John; Hirshberg, Eliotte L

    2014-04-30

    Both patient- and context-specific factors may explain the conflicting evidence regarding glucose control in critically ill patients. Blood glucose variability appears to correlate with mortality, but this variability may be an indicator of disease severity, rather than an independent predictor of mortality. We assessed blood glucose coefficient of variation as an independent predictor of mortality in the critically ill. We used eProtocol-Insulin, an electronic protocol for managing intravenous insulin with explicit rules, high clinician compliance, and reproducibility. We studied critically ill patients from eight hospitals, excluding patients with diabetic ketoacidosis and patients supported with eProtocol-insulin for < 24 hours or with < 10 glucose measurements. Our primary clinical outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. We performed multivariable logistic regression, with covariates of age, gender, glucose coefficient of variation (standard deviation/mean), Charlson comorbidity score, acute physiology score, presence of diabetes, and occurrence of hypoglycemia < 60 mg/dL. We studied 6101 critically ill adults. Coefficient of variation was independently associated with 30-day mortality (odds ratio 1.23 for every 10% increase, P < 0.001), even after adjustment for hypoglycemia, age, disease severity, and comorbidities. The association was higher in non-diabetics (OR = 1.37, P < 0.001) than in diabetics (OR 1.15, P = 0.001). Blood glucose variability is associated with mortality and is independent of hypoglycemia, disease severity, and comorbidities. Future studies should evaluate blood glucose variability.

  18. Coefficient of glucose variation is independently associated with mortality in critically ill patients receiving intravenous insulin

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Both patient- and context-specific factors may explain the conflicting evidence regarding glucose control in critically ill patients. Blood glucose variability appears to correlate with mortality, but this variability may be an indicator of disease severity, rather than an independent predictor of mortality. We assessed blood glucose coefficient of variation as an independent predictor of mortality in the critically ill. Methods We used eProtocol-Insulin, an electronic protocol for managing intravenous insulin with explicit rules, high clinician compliance, and reproducibility. We studied critically ill patients from eight hospitals, excluding patients with diabetic ketoacidosis and patients supported with eProtocol-insulin for < 24 hours or with < 10 glucose measurements. Our primary clinical outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. We performed multivariable logistic regression, with covariates of age, gender, glucose coefficient of variation (standard deviation/mean), Charlson comorbidity score, acute physiology score, presence of diabetes, and occurrence of hypoglycemia < 60 mg/dL. Results We studied 6101 critically ill adults. Coefficient of variation was independently associated with 30-day mortality (odds ratio 1.23 for every 10% increase, P < 0.001), even after adjustment for hypoglycemia, age, disease severity, and comorbidities. The association was higher in non-diabetics (OR = 1.37, P < 0.001) than in diabetics (OR 1.15, P = 0.001). Conclusions Blood glucose variability is associated with mortality and is independent of hypoglycemia, disease severity, and comorbidities. Future studies should evaluate blood glucose variability. PMID:24886864

  19. Is body temperature an independent predictor of mortality in hip fracture patients?

    PubMed

    Faizi, Murtuza; Farrier, Adam J; Venkatesan, Murali; Thomas, Christopher; Uzoigwe, Chika Edward; Balasubramanian, Siva; Smith, Robert P

    2014-12-01

    Admission body temperature is a critical parameter in all trauma patients. Low admission temperature is strongly associated with adverse outcomes. We have previously shown, in a prospective study that low admission body temperature is common and associated with high mortality in hip fracture patients (Uzoigwe et al., 2014). However, no previous studies have evaluated whether admission temperature is an independent predictor of mortality in hip fracture patients after adjustment for the 7 recognised independent prognostic indicators (Maxwell et al., 2008). We retrospectively collated data on all patients presenting to our institution between June 2011 and February 2013 with a hip fracture. This included patients involved in the original prospective study (Uzoigwe et al., 2014). Admission tympanic temperature, measured on initial presentation at triage, was recorded. The prognosticators of age, gender, source of admission, abbreviated mental test score, haemoglobin, co-morbid disease and the presence or absence of malignancy were also recorded. Using multiple logistic regression, adjustment was made for these potentially confounding prognostic indicators of 30-day mortality, to determine if admission low body temperature were independently linked to mortality. 1066 patients were included. 781 patients, involved in the original prospective study (Uzoigwe et al., 2014), presented in the relevant time frame and were included in the retrospective study. The mean age was 81. There were 273 (26%) men and 793 (74%) women. 407 (38%) had low body temperature (<36.5 °C). Adjustment was made for age, gender, source of admission, abbreviated mental test score, haemoglobin, co-morbid disease and the presence or absence of malignancy. Those with low body temperature had an adjusted odds ratio of 30-day mortality that was 2.1 times that of the euthermic (36.5–37.5 °C). Low body temperature is strongly and independently associated with 30-day mortality in hip fracture patients.

  20. The effect of adding functional classification to ASA status for predicting 30-day mortality.

    PubMed

    Visnjevac, Ognjen; Davari-Farid, Sina; Lee, Jun; Pourafkari, Leili; Arora, Pradeep; Dosluoglu, Hasan H; Nader, Nader D

    2015-07-01

    curve the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.811 ± 0.010 for traditional ASA classification in predicting death within 30 days, which improved 4.7% to 0.848 ± 0.008 using the modified ASA classification, P < 0.00001. Functional capacity was an independent predictor of mortality within each ASA class, indicating that it should be considered for incorporation into the routine preoperative evaluation. Functional dependence may be an indication for increasing a patient's ASA class by 1 class-point to better reflect his or her perioperative risk, but prospective validation of these findings is recommended, as this is a preliminary study.

  1. Presence of hepatitis C (HCV) infection in Baby Boomers with Medicare is independently associated with mortality and resource utilisation.

    PubMed

    Sayiner, M; Wymer, M; Golabi, P; Ford, J; Srishord, I; Younossi, Z M

    2016-05-01

    Hepatitis C virus is common among Baby Boomers (BB). As this cohort ages, they will increasingly become Medicare eligible. To evaluate resource utilisation and mortality of BB-Medicare recipients with HCV. We used in-patient and out-patient Medicare databases (2005-2010). HCV was identified using ICD-9 codes. Outcomes included resource utilisation [payment/case and in-patient length of stay (LOS)] and short-term mortality. Of 1 153 862 BB Medicare recipients (2005-2010), 3.2% (N = 37 365) had HCV. During this period, in-patient Medicare-BB (39 793-55 235) and their claims (78 924-106 232) increased. Furthermore, their overall mortality increased from 8.94% to 10.25% (P < 0.0001). In multivariate analysis, HCV [OR = 1.23 (1.16-1.29)], older age [OR = 1.98 (1.82-2.14)], male gender [OR = 1.25 (1.22-1.29)], ESRD [OR = 1.31 (1.26-1.36)], Charlson score [OR = 1.41 (1.40-1.42)] and LOS [OR = 1.02 (1.02-1.02)] predicted mortality. LOS decreased from 12.98 to 11.74 days (P < 0.0001), whereas total payments increased from $22 157 to $23 185 (P < .0001). During the study, the number of out-patient Medicare BB patients (123 097-192 110) and claims (863 978-1 340 260) also increased. Furthermore, overall mortality increased from 3.15% to 3.31% (P = 0.0131). Again, HCV [OR = 1.23 (1.16-1.30)], older age [OR = 2.03 (1.89-2.17)], ESRD [OR = 3.40 (3.28-3.51)], disabled status [OR = 1.49 (1.40-1.58)] and Charlson score [OR = 1.39 (1.38-1.40)] predicted mortality. Annual total out-patient payments increased from $3781 to $4001 (P < 0.0001). HCV [36.04% [34.28-37.82%)], 45-49 age [4.21% (3.14-5.28%)], ESRD [966.31% (954.86-977.88%)], disabled status [43.22% (41.67-44.80%)], Charlson score [46.78% (46.31-47.26%)] and study year [2.72% (2.58-2.85%)] independently predicted increases in payments. In Baby Boomer Medicare recipients, diagnosis of HCV is independently associated with higher mortality and resource utilisation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Predicting Mortality in Low-Income Country ICUs: The Rwanda Mortality Probability Model (R-MPM)

    PubMed Central

    Kiviri, Willy; Fowler, Robert A.; Mueller, Ariel; Novack, Victor; Banner-Goodspeed, Valerie M.; Weinkauf, Julia L.; Talmor, Daniel S.; Twagirumugabe, Theogene

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Intensive Care Unit (ICU) risk prediction models are used to compare outcomes for quality improvement initiatives, benchmarking, and research. While such models provide robust tools in high-income countries, an ICU risk prediction model has not been validated in a low-income country where ICU population characteristics are different from those in high-income countries, and where laboratory-based patient data are often unavailable. We sought to validate the Mortality Probability Admission Model, version III (MPM0-III) in two public ICUs in Rwanda and to develop a new Rwanda Mortality Probability Model (R-MPM) for use in low-income countries. Methods We prospectively collected data on all adult patients admitted to Rwanda’s two public ICUs between August 19, 2013 and October 6, 2014. We described demographic and presenting characteristics and outcomes. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the MPM0-III model. Using stepwise selection, we developed a new logistic model for risk prediction, the R-MPM, and used bootstrapping techniques to test for optimism in the model. Results Among 427 consecutive adults, the median age was 34 (IQR 25–47) years and mortality was 48.7%. Mechanical ventilation was initiated for 85.3%, and 41.9% received vasopressors. The MPM0-III predicted mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 and Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistic p = 0.024. We developed a new model using five variables: age, suspected or confirmed infection within 24 hours of ICU admission, hypotension or shock as a reason for ICU admission, Glasgow Coma Scale score at ICU admission, and heart rate at ICU admission. Using these five variables, the R-MPM predicted outcomes with area under the ROC curve of 0.81 with 95% confidence interval of (0.77, 0.86), and Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistic p = 0.154. Conclusions The MPM0-III has modest ability to predict mortality in a population of Rwandan ICU patients. The R

  3. Psychosocial and Physiological Predictors of Mortality in Patients of Heart Failure: Independent Effects of Marital Status and C-Reactive Protein.

    PubMed

    Shen, Biing-Jiun; Xu, Yue; Eisenberg, Stacy

    2017-02-01

    Few studies have examined the interplay between psychosocial and physiological variables in prediction of mortality in heart failure (HF) patients. This study investigated the prospective influence of marital status, social support, depression, and C-reactive protein (CRP) on the mortality of patients with chronic HF. In addition, it examined whether there was a mediating relationship between social support and marital status and whether depression and inflammation influenced one another to predict mortality of HF patients. The participants were 220 HF patients, among whom 48 were deceased over an average of 4.60 years. A number of psychosocial and biomedical variables were examined for their associations with mortality and their relationships between each other in hierarchical logistic regression analyses. After adjusting for New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, age, and gender, being unmarried predicted mortality (OR = 2.80, p = 0.004), whereas perceived social support did not. Higher CRP was not associated with depression, and it independently predicted mortality (OR = 1.92, p = 0.030). Depression predicted mortality only in the univariate analysis (OR = 1.02, p = 0.030), but the association was no longer significant either after removing somatic items or after adjusting for covariates. In the combined multivariate model, marital status (OR = 2.20, p = 0.047), CRP (OR = 1.91, p = 0.035), and NYHA class (OR = 2.41, p = 0.001) independently predicted mortality. Monitoring chronic HF patients who are unmarried, with elevated inflammation, or in higher NYHA class may help identify those at greater mortality risk to implement targeted intervention.

  4. Intensive Care Unit Admission Parameters Improve the Accuracy of Operative Mortality Predictive Models in Cardiac Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Ranucci, Marco; Ballotta, Andrea; Castelvecchio, Serenella; Baryshnikova, Ekaterina; Brozzi, Simonetta; Boncilli, Alessandra

    2010-01-01

    Background Operative mortality risk in cardiac surgery is usually assessed using preoperative risk models. However, intraoperative factors may change the risk profile of the patients, and parameters at the admission in the intensive care unit may be relevant in determining the operative mortality. This study investigates the association between a number of parameters at the admission in the intensive care unit and the operative mortality, and verifies the hypothesis that including these parameters into the preoperative risk models may increase the accuracy of prediction of the operative mortality. Methodology 929 adult patients who underwent cardiac surgery were admitted to the study. The preoperative risk profile was assessed using the logistic EuroSCORE and the ACEF score. A number of parameters recorded at the admission in the intensive care unit were explored for univariate and multivariable association with the operative mortality. Principal Findings A heart rate higher than 120 beats per minute and a blood lactate value higher than 4 mmol/L at the admission in the intensive care unit were independent predictors of operative mortality, with odds ratio of 6.7 and 13.4 respectively. Including these parameters into the logistic EuroSCORE and the ACEF score increased their accuracy (area under the curve 0.85 to 0.88 for the logistic EuroSCORE and 0.81 to 0.86 for the ACEF score). Conclusions A double-stage assessment of operative mortality risk provides a higher accuracy of the prediction. Elevated blood lactates and tachycardia reflect a condition of inadequate cardiac output. Their inclusion in the assessment of the severity of the clinical conditions after cardiac surgery may offer a useful tool to introduce more sophisticated hemodynamic monitoring techniques. Comparison between the predicted operative mortality risk before and after the operation may offer an assessment of the operative performance. PMID:21042411

  5. Early coagulopathy is an independent predictor of mortality in children after severe trauma

    PubMed Central

    Whittaker, Brent; Christiaans, Sarah C.; Altice, Jessica L.; Chen, Mike K.; Bartolucci, Alfred A.; Morgan, Charity J.; Kerby, Jeffrey D.; Pittet, Jean-François

    2013-01-01

    To determine whether early coagulopathy affects the mortality associated with severe civilian pediatric trauma, trauma patients < 18 years of age admitted to a pediatric intensive care unit from 2001 to 2010 were evaluated. Patients with burns, primary asphyxiation, preexisting bleeding diathesis, lack of coagulation studies or transferred from other hospitals > 24 hours after injury were excluded. Age, gender, race, mechanism of injury, initial systolic blood pressure (SBP), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, Injury Severity Score (ISS), prothrombin time (PT), partial thromboplastin time (PTT), platelet count and International Normalized Ratio (INR) were recorded. An arterial or venous blood gas was performed, if clinically indicated. Coagulopathy was defined as an INR > 1.2. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were lengths of ICU and hospital stay. Eight hundred three patients were included in the study. Overall mortality was 13.4%. The incidence of age-adjusted hypotension was 5.4%. Early coagulopathy was observed in 37.9% of patients. High ISS and/or hypotension were associated with early coagulopathy and higher mortality. Early coagulopathy was associated with a modest increase in mortality in pediatric trauma patients without traumatic brain injury (TBI). In contrast, the combination of TBI and early coagulopathy was associated with a four-fold increase in mortality in this patient population. Early coagulopathy is an independent predictor of mortality in civilian pediatric patients with severe trauma. The increase in mortality was particularly significant in patients with TBI either isolated or combined with other injuries, suggesting that a rapid correction of this coagulopathy could substantially decrease the mortality after TBI in pediatric trauma patients. PMID:23591559

  6. Increased dietary sodium is independently associated with greater mortality among prevalent hemodialysis patients

    PubMed Central

    Mc Causland, Finnian R.; Waikar, Sushrut S.; Brunelli, Steven M.

    2013-01-01

    Dietary sodium is thought to play a major role in the pathogenesis of hypertension, hypervolemia and mortality in hemodialysis patients. Thus, restriction is almost universally recommended. However, the evidence on which these assumptions are based is limited. We undertook a post-hoc analysis of the Hemodialysis Study with available dietary, clinical and laboratory information. Linear regression models were fit to estimate associations of dietary sodium with ultrafiltration requirement, blood pressure and nutritional indices. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the association of dietary sodium intake, sodium:calorie intake, sodium:potassium intake and prescribed sodium restriction with all-cause mortality. Complete data were available in 1770 subjects, of whom 44% were male, 63% were black and 44% were diabetic. Mean age was 58 (±14) years; median dietary sodium intake was 2080 (IQR: 1490-2850) mg/day. After case-mix adjustment, higher reported dietary sodium was associated with greater ultrafiltration requirement, caloric and protein intake; sodium:calorie intake ratio associated with greater UF requirement; sodium:potassium ratio associated with higher serum sodium. None were associated with pre-dialysis systolic blood pressure. Higher baseline reported dietary sodium, sodium:calorie ratio and sodium:potassium ratio were independently associated with greater all-cause mortality. No associations between prescribed dietary sodium restriction and mortality were observed. Higher reported dietary sodium intake is independently associated with greater mortality among prevalent hemodialysis subjects. Randomized trials are warranted to determine whether dietary sodium restriction improves survival. PMID:22418981

  7. Predicting exposure-response associations of ambient particulate matter with mortality in 73 Chinese cities.

    PubMed

    Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Chen, Renjie; Kan, Haidong; Tong, Shilu

    2016-01-01

    Estimating the burden of mortality associated with particulates requires knowledge of exposure-response associations. However, the evidence on exposure-response associations is limited in many cities, especially in developing countries. In this study, we predicted associations of particulates smaller than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) with mortality in 73 Chinese cities. The meta-regression model was used to test and quantify which city-specific characteristics contributed significantly to the heterogeneity of PM10-mortality associations for 16 Chinese cities. Then, those city-specific characteristics with statistically significant regression coefficients were treated as independent variables to build multivariate meta-regression models. The model with the best fitness was used to predict PM10-mortality associations in 73 Chinese cities in 2010. Mean temperature, PM10 concentration and green space per capita could best explain the heterogeneity in PM10-mortality associations. Based on city-specific characteristics, we were able to develop multivariate meta-regression models to predict associations between air pollutants and health outcomes reasonably well.

  8. Serum chloride is an independent predictor of mortality in hypertensive patients.

    PubMed

    McCallum, Linsay; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Hastie, Claire E; Patel, Rajan K; Williamson, Catherine; Redzuan, Adyani Md; Dawson, Jesse; Sloan, William; Muir, Scott; Morrison, David; McInnes, Gordon T; Freel, Ellen Marie; Walters, Matthew; Dominiczak, Anna F; Sattar, Naveed; Padmanabhan, Sandosh

    2013-11-01

    Chloride (Cl-) is the major extracellular anion in the body, accompanying sodium (Na+), and is primarily derived from dietary sources. Data suggest that increased dietary Cl- intake increases blood pressure, yet paradoxically, higher serum Cl- appears associated with lower mortality and cardiovascular risk. This implies that serum Cl- also reflects risk pathways independent of blood pressure, serum Na+, and bicarbonate (HCO3-). We analyzed 12,968 hypertensive individuals followed up for 35 years, using Cox proportional hazards model to test whether baseline serum Cl- was an independent predictor of mortality. To distinguish the effect of Cl- from Na+ and HCO3-, we adjusted for these electrolytes and also performed the analysis stratified by Na+ /HCO3- and Cl- levels. Generalized estimating equation was used to determine the effect of baseline Cl- on follow-up blood pressure. The total time at risk was 19,7101 person-years. The lowest quintile of serum Cl- (<100 mEq/L) was associated with a 20% higher mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular and noncardiovascular) compared with the remainder of the subjects. A 1 mEq/L increase in serum Cl- was associated with a 1.5% (hazard ratio, 0.985; 95% confidence interval, 0.98-0.99) reduction in all-cause mortality, after adjustment for baseline confounding variables and Na+, K+ , and HCO3- levels. The group with Na+ > 135 and Cl- > 100 had the best survival, and compared with this group, the Na+ >135 and Cl- <100 group had significantly higher mortality (hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.31). Low, not high Serum Cl- (<100 mEq/L), is associated with greater mortality risk independent of obvious confounders. Further studies are needed to elucidate the relation between Cl- and risk.

  9. Development and validation of the Neonatal Mortality Score-9 Mexico to predict mortality in critically ill neonates.

    PubMed

    Márquez-González, Horacio; Jiménez-Báez, María Valeria; Muñoz-Ramírez, C Mireya; Yáñez-Gutiérrez, Lucelli; Huelgas-Plaza, Ana C; Almeida-Gutiérrez, Eduardo; Villa-Romero, Antonio Rafael

    2015-06-01

    Prognostic scales or scores are useful for physicians who work in neonatal intensive care units. There are several validated neonatal scores but they are mostly applicable to low birth weight infants. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a mortality prognostic score in newborn infants, that would include new prognostic outcome measures. The study was conducted in a mother and child hospital in the city of Mexico, part of the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (Mexican Institute of Social Security). In the first phase of the study, a nested case-control study was designed (newborn infants admitted on the basis of severity criteria during the first day of life), in which a scale was identified and developed with gradual parameters of cumulative score consisting of nine independent outcome measures to predict death, as follows: weight, metabolic acidemia, lactate, PaO2/FiO2, p(A-a) O2, A/a, platelets and serum glucose.Validation was performed in a matched prospective cohort, using 7-day mortality as an endpoint. The initial cohort consisted of 424 newborn infants. Twenty-two cases and 132 controls were selected; and 9 outcome measures were identified, making up the scale named neonatal mortality score-9 Mexico. The validation cohort consisted of 227 newborn infants. Forty-four (19%) deaths were recorded, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.92. With a score between 16 and 18, an 85 (11-102) hazard ratio, 99% specificity, 71% positive predictive value and 90% negative predictive value were reported. Conclusions .The proposed scale is a reliable tool to predict severity in newborn infants.

  10. The BIG Score and Prediction of Mortality in Pediatric Blunt Trauma.

    PubMed

    Davis, Adrienne L; Wales, Paul W; Malik, Tahira; Stephens, Derek; Razik, Fathima; Schuh, Suzanne

    2015-09-01

    To examine the association between in-hospital mortality and the BIG (composed of the base deficit [B], International normalized ratio [I], Glasgow Coma Scale [G]) score measured on arrival to the emergency department in pediatric blunt trauma patients, adjusted for pre-hospital intubation, volume administration, and presence of hypotension and head injury. We also examined the association between the BIG score and mortality in patients requiring admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). A retrospective 2001-2012 trauma database review of patients with blunt trauma ≤ 17 years old with an Injury Severity score ≥ 12. Charts were reviewed for in-hospital mortality, components of the BIG score upon arrival to the emergency department, prehospital intubation, crystalloids ≥ 20 mL/kg, presence of hypotension, head injury, and disposition. 50/621 (8%) of the study patients died. Independent mortality predictors were the BIG score (OR 11, 95% CI 6-25), prior fluid bolus (OR 3, 95% CI 1.3-9), and prior intubation (OR 8, 95% CI 2-40). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.95 (CI 0.93-0.98), with the optimal BIG cutoff of 16. With BIG <16, death rate was 3/496 (0.006, 95% CI 0.001-0.007) vs 47/125 (0.38, 95% CI 0.15-0.7) with BIG ≥ 16, (P < .0001). In patients requiring admission to the ICU, the BIG score remained predictive of mortality (OR 14.3, 95% CI 7.3-32, P < .0001). The BIG score accurately predicts mortality in a population of North American pediatric patients with blunt trauma independent of pre-hospital interventions, presence of head injury, and hypotension, and identifies children with a high probability of survival (BIG <16). The BIG score is also associated with mortality in pediatric patients with trauma requiring admission to the ICU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Body fat distribution is more predictive of all-cause mortality than overall adiposity.

    PubMed

    Lee, Sung Woo; Son, Jee Young; Kim, Jeong Min; Hwang, Seung-Sik; Han, Jin Suk; Heo, Nam Ju

    2017-07-03

    The relationship between directly measured body fat and all-cause mortality has been rarely studied. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive significance of computed tomography (CT)-measured body fat, including both visceral fat area (VFA) and subcutaneous fat area (SFA), for mortality. The study included 36 656 participants who underwent abdominal CT as part of a health check-up at a single university-affiliated healthcare center in 2007 to 2015. Of those, 32 593 participants with data regarding vital status as of May 2016 were included in the final analysis. The main factors evaluated were VFA, SFA and visceral-to-subcutaneous fat area ratio (VSR), and the primary outcome was all-cause mortality. There were 253 deaths during a mean follow-up of 5.7 years. Increased SFA was associated with decreased all-cause mortality, whereas an increased VFA and VSR were related to increased all-cause mortality. Compared with the predictive power of body mass index (BMI), SFA and VSR showed a larger area under the curve than did BMI. In Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis, increased SFA and VSR were associated with decreased and increased hazard of all-cause death, respectively. However, in multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, only VSR was independently associated with all-cause mortality. Moreover, this relationship was paralleled by the harmful impact of increased VSR on metabolic profiles. Increased VSR was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. This suggests that the location of fat deposits may be more important than the actual amount of body fat. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Urinary cadmium levels predict mortality of patients with acute heart failure

    PubMed Central

    Hsu, Ching-Wei; Weng, Cheng-Hao; Lee, Cheng-Chia; Lin-Tan, Dan-Tzu; Chu, Pao-Hsien; Chen, Kuan-Hsing; Yen, Tzung-Hai; Huang, Wen-Hung

    2017-01-01

    Background Acute heart failure (AHF) is a serious condition that is associated with increased mortality in critically ill patients. Previous studies indicated that environmental exposure to cadmium increases mortality of general populations. However, the relationship of cadmium exposure and mortality is unclear for AHF patients. Materials and methods A total of 153 patients with AHF in intensive care units (ICUs) met the inclusion criteria and were followed up for 6 months. Demographic data, AHF etiology, hematological and biochemical data, and hospital mortality were recorded. The scores of two predictive systems (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [SOFA], Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II [APACHE II]) for mortality in critically ill patients were calculated, and urinary cadmium levels were recorded. Results At the end of the follow-up period, the mortality rate was 24.8%. The survivors (n=115) had higher urinary cadmium levels on day 1 (D1UCd) of ICU admission than non-survivors (n=38). A multiple linear regression analysis revealed a positive correlation between D1UCd and acute kidney injury, but a negative correlation between D1UCd and the level of serum albumin. A multivariate Cox analysis indicated that D1UCd was an independent predictor of mortality in AHF patients. For each increment of 1 μg of D1UCd, the hazard ratio for ICU mortality was 1.20 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09–1.32, P<0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for D1UCd was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.78–0.91), better than the values for the SOFA and APACHE II systems. Conclusion The D1UCd may serve as a single predictor of hospital mortality for AHF patients in the ICU. Because of the high mortality and smaller sample size, more investigations are required to confirm these observations and elucidate the underlying mechanisms. PMID:28392700

  13. Predicting early mortality following hip fracture surgery: the Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam (HEMA).

    PubMed

    Karres, Julian; Kieviet, Noera; Eerenberg, Jan-Peter; Vrouenraets, Bart C

    2017-09-11

    Early mortality following hip fracture surgery is high and pre-operative risk assessment for the individual patient is challenging. A risk model could identify patients in need of more intensive perioperative care, provide insight in the prognosis and allow for risk-adjustment in audits. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery: the Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam (HEMA). Data on 1050 consecutive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery between 2004 and 2010 were retrospectively collected and randomly split into a development cohort (746 patients) and validation cohort (304 patients). Logistic regression analysis was performed in the development cohort to determine risk factors for the HEMA. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in both cohorts using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and by stratification into low-, medium- and high-risk groups. Nine predictors for 30-day mortality were identified and used in the final model: age ≥ 85 years, in-hospital fracture, signs of malnutrition, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, current pneumonia, renal failure, malignancy and serum urea >9 mmol/L. The HEMA showed good discrimination in the development cohort (AUC = 0.81) and the validation cohort (AUC = 0.79). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated no lack of fit in either cohort (P > 0.05). The HEMA is based on preoperative variables and can be used to predict the risk of 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery for the individual patient. Prognostic Level II.

  14. QRS fragmentation is superior to QRS duration in predicting mortality in adults with tetralogy of Fallot.

    PubMed

    Bokma, Jouke P; Winter, Michiel M; Vehmeijer, Jim T; Vliegen, Hubert W; van Dijk, Arie P; van Melle, Joost P; Meijboom, Folkert J; Post, Martijn C; Zwinderman, Aeilko H; Mulder, Barbara J M; Bouma, Berto J

    2017-05-01

    Although QRS duration >180 ms has prognostic value in adults with tetralogy of Fallot (TOF), its sensitivity to predict mortality is low. Fragmented QRS complexes, a simple measurement on ECG, are related to myocardial fibrosis and dysfunction in patients with TOF. Our objective was to determine whether QRS fragmentation predicts major outcomes in TOF. This multicentre study included adult patients with TOF from a prospective registry. Notches in the QRS complex in ≥2 contiguous leads on a 12-lead ECG, not related to bundle branch block, were defined as QRS fragmentation, which was classified as none, moderate (≤4 leads) or severe (≥5 leads). The primary and secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality and clinical ventricular arrhythmia, respectively. A total of 794 adult patients with TOF (median age 27 years, 55% male; 52% no QRS fragmentation, 32% moderate, 16% severe) were included. During long-term (median 10.4 years) follow-up, 46 (6%) patients died and 35 (4%) patients had ventricular arrhythmias. Overall, 10-year survival was 98% in patients without fragmented QRS complexes, 93% in patients with moderate QRS fragmentation and 81% in patients with severe QRS fragmentation. In multivariable Cox hazards regression analysis, extent of QRS fragmentation (HR: 2.24/class, 95% CI 1.48 to 3.40, p<0.001) remained independently predictive for mortality, whereas QRS duration was not predictive (p=0.85). The extent of QRS fragmentation was also independently predictive for ventricular arrhythmia (HR: 2.00/class, 95% CI 1.26 to 3.16, p=0.003). The extent of QRS fragmentation is superior to QRS duration in predicting mortality in adult patients with TOF and may be used in risk stratification. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  15. Serum Irisin Predicts Mortality Risk in Acute Heart Failure Patients.

    PubMed

    Shen, Shutong; Gao, Rongrong; Bei, Yihua; Li, Jin; Zhang, Haifeng; Zhou, Yanli; Yao, Wenming; Xu, Dongjie; Zhou, Fang; Jin, Mengchao; Wei, Siqi; Wang, Kai; Xu, Xuejuan; Li, Yongqin; Xiao, Junjie; Li, Xinli

    2017-01-01

    Irisin is a peptide hormone cleaved from a plasma membrane protein fibronectin type III domain containing protein 5 (FNDC5). Emerging studies have indicated association between serum irisin and many major chronic diseases including cardiovascular diseases. However, the role of serum irisin as a predictor for mortality risk in acute heart failure (AHF) patients is not clear. AHF patients were enrolled and serum was collected at the admission and all patients were followed up for 1 year. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was used to measure serum irisin levels. To explore predictors for AHF mortality, the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were used. To determine the role of serum irisin levels in predicting survival, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used. In this study, 161 AHF patients were enrolled and serum irisin level was found to be significantly higher in patients deceased in 1-year follow-up. The univariate logistic regression analysis identified 18 variables associated with all-cause mortality in AHF patients, while the multivariate logistic regression analysis identified 2 variables namely blood urea nitrogen and serum irisin. ROC curve analysis indicated that blood urea nitrogen and the most commonly used biomarker, NT-pro-BNP, displayed poor prognostic value for AHF (AUCs ≤ 0.700) compared to serum irisin (AUC = 0.753). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that AHF patients with higher serum irisin had significantly higher mortality (P<0.001). Collectively, our study identified serum irisin as a predictive biomarker for 1-year all-cause mortality in AHF patients though large multicenter studies are highly needed. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

  16. Prediction of the mortality dose-response relationship in man

    SciTech Connect

    Morris, M.D.; Jones, T.D.

    1987-01-01

    Based upon an extensive data base including 100 separate animal studies, an estimate of the mortality dose-response relationship due to continuous photon radiation is predicted for 70 kg man. The model used in this prediction exercise includes fixed terms accounting for effects of body weight and dose rate, and random terms accounting for inter- and intra-species variation and experimental error. Point predictions and 95% prediction intervals are given for the LD/sub 05/, LD/sub 10/, LD/sub 25/, LD/sub 50/, LD/sub 75/, LD/sub 90/, and LD/sub 95/, for dose rates ranging from 1 to 50 R/min. 6 refs., 5 tabs.

  17. Life-Space Mobility Change Predicts 6-Month Mortality.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, Richard E; Sawyer, Patricia; Williams, Courtney P; Lo, Alexander X; Ritchie, Christine S; Roth, David L; Allman, Richard M; Brown, Cynthia J

    2017-04-01

    To examine 6-month change in life-space mobility as a predictor of subsequent 6-month mortality in community-dwelling older adults. Prospective cohort study. Community-dwelling older adults from five Alabama counties in the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) Study of Aging. A random sample of 1,000 Medicare beneficiaries, stratified according to sex, race, and rural or urban residence, recruited between November 1999 and February 2001, followed by a telephone interview every 6 months for the subsequent 8.5 years. Mortality data were determined from informant contacts and confirmed using the National Death Index and Social Security Death Index. Life-space was measured at each interview using the UAB Life-Space Assessment, a validated instrument for assessing community mobility. Eleven thousand eight hundred seventeen 6-month life-space change scores were calculated over 8.5 years of follow-up. Generalized linear mixed models were used to test predictors of mortality at subsequent 6-month intervals. Three hundred fifty-four deaths occurred within 6 months of two sequential life-space assessments. Controlling for age, sex, race, rural or urban residence, and comorbidity, life-space score and life-space decline over the preceding 6-month interval predicted mortality. A 10-point decrease in life-space resulted in a 72% increase in odds of dying over the subsequent 6 months (odds ratio = 1.723, P < .001). Life-space score at the beginning of a 6-month interval and change in life-space over 6 months were each associated with significant differences in subsequent 6-month mortality. Life-space assessment may assist clinicians in identifying older adults at risk of short-term mortality. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  18. The interaction between stress and positive affect in predicting mortality.

    PubMed

    Okely, Judith A; Weiss, Alexander; Gale, Catharine R

    2017-09-01

    Positive affect is associated with longevity; according to the stress-buffering hypothesis, this is because positive affect reduces the health harming effects of psychological stress. If this mechanism plays a role, then the association between positive affect and mortality risk should be most apparent among individuals who report higher stress. Here, we test this hypothesis. The sample consisted of 8542 participants aged 32-86 from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I) Epidemiological Follow-up Study (NHEFS). We used Cox's proportional hazards regression to test for the main effects of and the interaction between positive affect and perceived stress in predicting mortality risk over a 10year follow up period. Greater positive affect was associated with lower mortality risk. We found a significant interaction between positive affect and perceived stress such that the association between positive affect and mortality risk was stronger in people reporting higher stress. In the fully adjusted model, a standard deviation increase in positive affect was associated with a 16% (HR=0.84; 95% CI=0.75, 0.95) reduction in mortality risk among participants who reported high levels of stress. The association between positive affect and mortality risk was weaker and not significant among participants who reported low levels of stress (HR=0.98; 95% CI=0.89, 1.08). Our results support the stress-buffering model and illustrate that the association between positive affect and reduced risk may be strongest under challenging circumstances. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  19. Cystatin C at Admission in the Intensive Care Unit Predicts Mortality among Elderly Patients.

    PubMed

    Dalboni, Maria Aparecida; Beraldo, Daniel de Oliveira; Quinto, Beata Marie Redublo; Blaya, Rosângela; Narciso, Roberto; Oliveira, Moacir; Monte, Júlio César Martins; Durão, Marcelino de Souza; Cendoroglo, Miguel; Pavão, Oscar Fernando; Batista, Marcelo Costa

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. Cystatin C has been used in the critical care setting to evaluate renal function. Nevertheless, it has also been found to correlate with mortality, but it is not clear whether this association is due to acute kidney injury (AKI) or to other mechanism. Objective. To evaluate whether serum cystatin C at intensive care unit (ICU) entry predicts AKI and mortality in elderly patients. Materials and Methods. It was a prospective study of ICU elderly patients without AKI at admission. We evaluated 400 patients based on normality for serum cystatin C at ICU entry, of whom 234 (58%) were selected and 45 (19%) developed AKI. Results. We observed that higher serum levels of cystatin C did not predict AKI (1.05 ± 0.48 versus 0.94 ± 0.36 mg/L; P = 0.1). However, it was an independent predictor of mortality, H.R. = 6.16 (95% CI 1.46-26.00; P = 0.01), in contrast with AKI, which was not associated with death. In the ROC curves, cystatin C also provided a moderate and significant area (0.67; P = 0.03) compared to AKI (0.47; P = 0.6) to detect death. Conclusion. We demonstrated that higher cystatin C levels are an independent predictor of mortality in ICU elderly patients and may be used as a marker of poor prognosis.

  20. Cystatin C at Admission in the Intensive Care Unit Predicts Mortality among Elderly Patients

    PubMed Central

    Dalboni, Maria Aparecida; Beraldo, Daniel de Oliveira; Quinto, Beata Marie Redublo; Blaya, Rosângela; Narciso, Roberto; Oliveira, Moacir; Monte, Júlio César Martins; Durão, Marcelino de Souza; Cendoroglo, Miguel; Pavão, Oscar Fernando; Batista, Marcelo Costa

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. Cystatin C has been used in the critical care setting to evaluate renal function. Nevertheless, it has also been found to correlate with mortality, but it is not clear whether this association is due to acute kidney injury (AKI) or to other mechanism. Objective. To evaluate whether serum cystatin C at intensive care unit (ICU) entry predicts AKI and mortality in elderly patients. Materials and Methods. It was a prospective study of ICU elderly patients without AKI at admission. We evaluated 400 patients based on normality for serum cystatin C at ICU entry, of whom 234 (58%) were selected and 45 (19%) developed AKI. Results. We observed that higher serum levels of cystatin C did not predict AKI (1.05 ± 0.48 versus 0.94 ± 0.36 mg/L; P = 0.1). However, it was an independent predictor of mortality, H.R. = 6.16 (95% CI 1.46–26.00; P = 0.01), in contrast with AKI, which was not associated with death. In the ROC curves, cystatin C also provided a moderate and significant area (0.67; P = 0.03) compared to AKI (0.47; P = 0.6) to detect death. Conclusion. We demonstrated that higher cystatin C levels are an independent predictor of mortality in ICU elderly patients and may be used as a marker of poor prognosis. PMID:24967238

  1. Low prealbumin levels are independently associated with higher mortality in patients on peritoneal dialysis.

    PubMed

    Lee, Kyung Hee; Cho, Jang-Hee; Kwon, Owen; Kim, Sang-Un; Kim, Ryang Hi; Cho, Young Wook; Jung, Hee-Yeon; Choi, Ji-Young; Kim, Chan-Duck; Kim, Yong-Lim; Park, Sun-Hee

    2016-09-01

    Prealbumin, a sensitive marker for protein-energy status, is also known as an independent risk factor for mortality in hemodialysis patients. We investigated the impact of prealbumin on survival in incident peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. In total, 136 incident PD patients (mean age, 53.0 ± 15.8 years) between 2002 and 2007 were enrolled in the study. Laboratory data, dialysis adequacy, and nutritional parameters were assessed 3 months after PD initiation. Patients were classified into 2 groups according to prealbumin level: high prealbumin (≥ 40 mg/dL) and low prealbumin (< 40 mg/dL). The patients in the low-prealbumin group were older and had more comorbidities such as diabetes and cardiovascular diseases compared with the patients in the high-prealbumin group. Mean subjective global assessment scores were lower, and the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels were higher in the low-prealbumin group. Serum creatinine, albumin, and transferrin levels; percent lean body mass; and normalized protein catabolic rate were positively associated, whereas subjective global assessment scores and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels were negatively associated with prealbumin concentration. During the median follow-up of 49 months, patients in the lower prealbumin group had a higher mortality rate. Multivariate analysis revealed that prealbumin < 40 mg/dL (hazard ratio, 2.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-4.64) was an independent risk factor for mortality. In receiver operating characteristic curves, the area under the curve of prealbumin for mortality was the largest among the parameters. Prealbumin levels were an independent and sensitive predictor for mortality in incident PD patients, showing a good correlation with nutritional and inflammatory markers.

  2. Increased dietary sodium is independently associated with greater mortality among prevalent hemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Mc Causland, Finnian R; Waikar, Sushrut S; Brunelli, Steven M

    2012-07-01

    Dietary sodium is thought to play a major role in the pathogenesis of hypertension, hypervolemia, and mortality in hemodialysis patients; hence, sodium restriction is almost universally recommended. Since the evidence upon which to base these assumptions is limited, we undertook a post-hoc analysis of 1770 patients in the Hemodialysis Study with available dietary, clinical, and laboratory information. Within this cohort, 772 were men, 1113 black, and 786 diabetic, with a mean age of 58 years and a median dietary sodium intake of 2080 mg/day. After case-mix adjustment, linear regression modeling found that higher dietary sodium was associated with a greater ultrafiltration requirement, caloric and protein intake; sodium to calorie intake ratio was associated with a greater ultrafiltration requirement; and sodium to potassium ratio was associated with higher serum sodium. No indices were associated with the pre-dialysis systolic blood pressure. Cox regression modeling found that higher baseline dietary sodium and the ratio of sodium to calorie or potassium were each independently associated with greater all-cause mortality. No association between a prescribed dietary sodium restriction and mortality were found. Thus, higher reported dietary sodium intake is independently associated with greater mortality among prevalent hemodialysis patients. Randomized trials will be necessary to determine whether dietary sodium restriction improves survival.

  3. Blood Epigenetic Age may Predict Cancer Incidence and Mortality.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Yinan; Joyce, Brian T; Colicino, Elena; Liu, Lei; Zhang, Wei; Dai, Qi; Shrubsole, Martha J; Kibbe, Warren A; Gao, Tao; Zhang, Zhou; Jafari, Nadereh; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Baccarelli, Andrea A; Hou, Lifang

    2016-03-01

    Biological measures of aging are important for understanding the health of an aging population, with epigenetics particularly promising. Previous studies found that tumor tissue is epigenetically older than its donors are chronologically. We examined whether blood Δage (the discrepancy between epigenetic and chronological ages) can predict cancer incidence or mortality, thus assessing its potential as a cancer biomarker. In a prospective cohort, Δage and its rate of change over time were calculated in 834 blood leukocyte samples collected from 442 participants free of cancer at blood draw. About 3-5 years before cancer onset or death, Δage was associated with cancer risks in a dose-responsive manner (P = 0.02) and a one-year increase in Δage was associated with cancer incidence (HR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02-1.10) and mortality (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.07-1.28). Participants with smaller Δage and decelerated epigenetic aging over time had the lowest risks of cancer incidence (P = 0.003) and mortality (P = 0.02). Δage was associated with cancer incidence in a 'J-shaped' manner for subjects examined pre-2003, and with cancer mortality in a time-varying manner. We conclude that blood epigenetic age may mirror epigenetic abnormalities related to cancer development, potentially serving as a minimally invasive biomarker for cancer early detection.

  4. Fungal Wound Infection (Not Colonization) Is Independently Associated With Mortality in Burn Patients

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-06-01

    ORIGINAL ARTICLES Fungal Wound Infection (Not Colonization) Is Independently Associated With Mortality in Burn Patients Edward E. Horvath, DO...The records of patients with thermal burns admitted to a single burn center (1991–2002) were reviewed. Analyses accounted for total burn size (TBS...category. Fungal colonization and infection were determined histopathologically. Results: Criteria for inclusion were met by 2651 patients . Each patient’s

  5. Heart rate turbulence predicts all-cause mortality and sudden death in congestive heart failure patients.

    PubMed

    Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Zareba, Wojciech; Vazquez, Rafael; Vallverdu, Montserrat; Gonzalez-Juanatey, Jose R; Valdes, Mariano; Almendral, Jesus; Cinca, Juan; Caminal, Pere; de Luna, Antoni Bayes

    2008-08-01

    Abnormal heart rate turbulence (HRT) has been documented as a strong predictor of total mortality and sudden death in postinfarction patients, but data in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) are limited. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of HRT for predicting mortality in CHF patients in New York Heart Association (NYHA) class II-III. In 651 CHF patients with sinus rhythm enrolled into the MUSIC (Muerte Subita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study, the standard HRT parameters turbulence onset (TO) and slope (TS), as well as HRT categories, were assessed for predicting total mortality and sudden death. HRT was analyzable in 607 patients, mean age 63 years (434 male), 50% of ischemic etiology. During a median follow up of 44 months, 129 patients died, 52 from sudden death. Abnormal TS and HRT category 2 (HRT2) were independently associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR: 2.10, CI: 1.41 to 3.12, P <.001 and HR: 2.52, CI: 1.56 to 4.05, P <.001; respectively), sudden death (HR: 2.25, CI: 1.13 to 4.46, P = .021 for HRT2), and death due to heart failure progression (HR: 4.11, CI: 1.84 to 9.19, P <.001 for HRT2) after adjustment for clinical covariates in multivariate analysis. The prognostic value of TS for predicting total mortality was similar in various groups dichotomized by age, gender, NYHA class, left ventricular ejection fraction, and CHF etiology. TS was found to be predictive for total mortality only in patients with QRS > 120 ms. HRT is a potent risk predictor for both heart failure and arrhythmic death in patients with class II and III CHF.

  6. Gut Epithelial Barrier Dysfunction and Innate Immune Activation Predict Mortality in Treated HIV Infection

    PubMed Central

    Hunt, Peter W.; Sinclair, Elizabeth; Rodriguez, Benigno; Shive, Carey; Clagett, Brian; Funderburg, Nicholas; Robinson, Janet; Huang, Yong; Epling, Lorrie; Martin, Jeffrey N.; Deeks, Steven G.; Meinert, Curtis L.; Van Natta, Mark L.; Jabs, Douglas A.; Lederman, Michael M.

    2014-01-01

    Background. While inflammation predicts mortality in treated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, the prognostic significance of gut barrier dysfunction and phenotypic T-cell markers remains unclear. Methods. We assessed immunologic predictors of mortality in a case-control study within the Longitudinal Study of the Ocular Complications of AIDS (LSOCA), using conditional logistic regression. Sixty-four case patients who died within 12 months of treatment-mediated viral suppression were each matched to 2 control individuals (total number of controls, 128) by duration of antiretroviral therapy–mediated viral suppression, nadir CD4+ T-cell count, age, sex, and prior cytomegalovirus (CMV) retinitis. A similar secondary analysis was conducted in the SCOPE cohort, which had participants with less advanced immunodeficiency. Results. Plasma gut epithelial barrier integrity markers (intestinal fatty acid binding protein and zonulin-1 levels), soluble CD14 level, kynurenine/tryptophan ratio, soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 level, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level, and D-dimer level all strongly predicted mortality, even after adjustment for proximal CD4+ T-cell count (all P ≤ .001). A higher percentage of CD38+HLA-DR+ cells in the CD8+ T-cell population was a predictor of mortality before (P = .031) but not after (P = .10) adjustment for proximal CD4+ T-cell count. Frequencies of senescent (defined as CD28−CD57+ cells), exhausted (defined as PD1+ cells), naive, and CMV-specific T cells did not predict mortality. Conclusions. Gut epithelial barrier dysfunction, innate immune activation, inflammation, and coagulation—but not T-cell activation, senescence, and exhaustion—independently predict mortality in individuals with treated HIV infection with a history of AIDS and are viable targets for interventions. PMID:24755434

  7. Developing a simple preinterventional score to predict hospital mortality in adult venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

    PubMed Central

    Cheng, Yu-Ting; Wu, Meng-Yu; Chang, Yu-Sheng; Huang, Chung-Chi; Lin, Pyng-Jing

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Despite gaining popularity, venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) remains a controversial therapy for acute respiratory failure (ARF) in adult patients due to its equivocal survival benefits. The study was aimed at identifying the preinterventional prognostic predictors of hospital mortality in adult VV-ECMO patients and developing a practical mortality prediction score to facilitate clinical decision-making. This retrospective study included 116 adult patients who received VV-ECMO for severe ARF in a tertiary referral center, from 2007 to 2015. The definition of severe ARF was PaO2/ FiO2 ratio < 70 mm Hg under advanced mechanical ventilation (MV). Preinterventional variables including demographic characteristics, ventilatory parameters, and severity of organ dysfunction were collected for analysis. The prognostic predictors of hospital mortality were generated with multivariate logistic regression and transformed into a scoring system. The discriminative power on hospital mortality of the scoring system was presented as the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The overall hospital mortality rate was 47% (n = 54). Pre-ECMO MV day > 4 (OR: 4.71; 95% CI: 1.98–11.23; P < 0.001), pre-ECMO sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score >9 (OR: 3.16; 95% CI: 1.36–7.36; P = 0.01), and immunocompromised status (OR: 2.91; 95% CI: 1.07–7.89; P = 0.04) were independent predictors of hospital mortality of adult VV-ECMO. A mortality prediction score comprising of the 3 binary predictors was developed and named VV-ECMO mortality score. The total score was estimated as follows: VV-ECMO mortality score = 2 × (Pre-ECMO MV day > 4) + 1 × (Pre-ECMO SOFA score >9) + 1 × (immunocompromised status). The AUROC of VV-ECMO mortality score was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.67–0.85; P < 0.001). The corresponding hospital mortality rates to VV-ECMO mortality scores were 18% (Score 0), 35% (Score 1), 56

  8. Acquired hypernatraemia is an independent predictor of mortality in critically ill patients.

    PubMed

    O'Donoghue, S D; Dulhunty, J M; Bandeshe, H K; Senthuran, S; Gowardman, J R

    2009-05-01

    This study reports the incidence and associated mortality of acquired hypernatraemia (Na > 150 mmol x l(-1)) in a general medical/surgical intensive care unit. Patients admitted over a 5-year period with normal sodium values were eligible for inclusion; exclusions were made for burn/neurosurgical diagnoses and for hypertonic saline therapy. From 3475 admissions (3317 patients), 266 (7.7%) episodes of hypernatraemia were observed. Hospital mortality was 33.5% in the hypernatraemic group and 7.7% in the normonatraemic group (p < 0.001). Acquired hypernatraemia was an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.37-2.82, p < 0.001). Intermediate sodium levels (145-150 mmol x l(-1)) were associated with increased mortality (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.02-1.98). Uncorrected sodium at discharge (p = 0.001) and peak sodium (p = 0.001) were better predictors of mortality than time to onset (p = 0.71) and duration of hypernatraemia (p = 1.0). Hypernatraemia avoidance is justified, but determinants of hypernatraemia and benefits of targeted treatment strategies require further elucidation.

  9. Predictive factors for mortality in Fournier' gangrene: a series of 59 cases.

    PubMed

    García Marín, Andrés; Turégano Fuentes, Fernando; Cuadrado Ayuso, Marta; Andueza Lillo, Juan Antonio; Cano Ballesteros, Juan Carlos; Pérez López, Mercedes

    2015-01-01

    Fournier's gangrene (FG) is the necrotizing fasciitis of the perineum and genital area and presents a high mortality rate. The aim was to assess prognostic factors for mortality, create a new mortality predictive scale and compare it with previously published scales in patients diagnosed with FG in our Emergency Department. Retrospective analysis study between 1998 and 2012. Of the 59 patients, 44 survived (74%) (S) and 15 died (26%) (D). Significant differences were found in peripheral vasculopathy (S 5 [11%]; D 6 [40%]; P=.023), hemoglobin (S 13; D 11; P=.014), hematocrit (S 37; D 31.4; P=.009), white blood cells (S 17,400; D 23,800; P=.023), serum urea (S 58; D 102; P<.001), creatinine (S 1.1; D 1.9; P=.032), potassium (S 3.7; D 4.4; P=.012) and alkaline phosphatase (S 92; D 133; P=.014). Predictive scores: Charlson index (S 1; D 4; P=.013), severe sepsis criteria (S 16 [36%]; D 13 [86%]; P=.001), Fournier's gangrene severity index score (FGSIS) (S 4; D 7; P=.002) and Uludag Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index (UFGSI) (S 9; D 13; P=.004). Independent predictive factors were peripheral vasculopathy, serum potassium and severe sepsis criteria, and a model was created with an area under the ROC curve of 0.850 (0.760-0.973), higher than FGSIS (0.746 [0.601-0.981]) and UFGSI (0.760 [0.617-0.904]). FG showed a high mortality rate. Independent predictive factors were peripheral vasculopathy, potassium and severe sepsis criteria creating a predictive model that performed better than those previously described. Copyright © 2014 AEC. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  10. Coronary flow reserve assessed by myocardial contrast echocardiography predicts mortality in patients with heart failure.

    PubMed

    Anantharam, Brijesh; Janardhanan, Raj; Hayat, Sajad; Hickman, Michael; Chahal, Navtej; Bassett, Paul; Senior, Roxy

    2011-01-01

    the aim of the study was to assess whether myocardial contrast echocardiography (MCE) can predict mortality in patients with heart failure. Myocardial viability, ischaemia, and coronary flow reserve (CFR) are predictors of mortality in patients with heart failure. MCE can assess myocardial viability, ischaemia, and CFR at the bedside. However, its prognostic value is unknown in patients with heart failure. eighty-seven patients (age: 68 ± 10 years, 62% male) with heart failure [left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF): 35% ± 13] underwent low-power intermittent MCE at rest and 2 min after dipyridamole infusion. Resting and stress perfusion score index were derived qualitatively. CFR (MBF at stress/MBF at rest) was calculated by a quantitative method. All patients underwent coronary arteriography. Patients were followed up for mortality. Of the 87 patients, 43 (49%) patients had coronary artery disease. There were 28 (32%) deaths during a mean follow-up of 4.1 ± 1.7 years. Type 2 diabetes [P = 0.02, hazard ratios (HR) 2.43, confidence interval (CI) 1.13-5.22] and CFR (P = 0.001, HR 0.15, CI 0.05-0.45) were independent predictors of mortality. A CFR ≤ 1.5 had a significantly (P < 0.0001) higher mortality of 49 vs. 10% in patients with CFR > 1.5 over the 4 year follow-up period. CFR determined by MCE is a powerful predictor of mortality in patients with heart failure.

  11. The Predictive Role of Red Cell Distribution Width in Mortality among Chronic Kidney Disease Patients

    PubMed Central

    Hsieh, Yao-Peng; Chang, Chia-Chu; Kor, Chew-Teng; Yang, Yu; Wen, Yao-Ko; Chiu, Ping-Fang

    2016-01-01

    Background Recently, accumulating evidence has demonstrated that RDW independently predicts clinically important outcomes in many populations. However, the role of RDW has not been elucidated in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. We conducted the present study with the aim to evaluate the predictive value of RDW in CKD patients. Methods A retrospective observational cohort study of 1075 stage 3–5 CKD patients was conducted in a medical center. The patients’ baseline information included demographic data, laboratory values, medications, and comorbid conditions. The upper limit of normal RDW value (14.9%) was used to divide the whole population. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to determine the independent predictors of mortality. Results Of the 1075 participants, 158 patients (14.7%) died over a mean follow-up of approximately 2.35 years. The crude mortality rate was significantly higher in the high RDW group (high RDW group, 22.4%; low RDW group 11%, p <0.001). From the adjusted model, the high RDW group was correlated with a hazard ratio of 2.19 for overall mortality as compared with the low RDW group (95% CI = 1.53–3.09, p<0.001). In addition, the high RDW group was also associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease (HR = 2.28, 95% CI = 1.14–4.25, p = 0.019) and infection (HR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.15–3.14, p = 0.012)) related mortality in comparison with the low RDW group. Conclusions In stage 3–5 CKD patients, RDW was associated with patient mortality of all-cause, cardiovascular disease and infection. RDW should be considered as a clinical predictor for mortality when providing healthcare to CKD patients. PMID:27906969

  12. Predictive factors of septic shock and mortality in neutropenic patients.

    PubMed

    Ramzi, Jeddi; Mohamed, Zarrouk; Yosr, Benabdennebi; Karima, Kacem; Raihane, Benlakhal; Lamia, Aissaoui; Hela, Ben Abid; Zaher, Belhadjali; Balkis, Meddeb

    2007-12-01

    Neutropenia is a major risk factor for developing a serious infection. Bacteremia still causes significant mortality among neutropenic patients with cancer. The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors for septic shock and for mortality in neutropenic patients with leukemia and bacteremia. Consecutive samples from 20 patients with acute myeloid leukemia and bacteremia were studied during a 1 year period (January-December 2003). All patients received empirical antibiotic therapies for febrile episodes using ceftazidime plus amikacin. About 110 neutropenic febrile episodes were noted: clinically documented 14.54%, microbiologically documented 16.36% and fever of unknown origin 69.09%. Gram-negative organism caused eight febrile episodes: Pseudomonas (5), Klebsiella (3). Gram-positive organism caused 10 episodes: Staphylococcus (6), Streptococci (2), Enterococci (2). Pulmonary infection accounted for 25% of clinically documented infections. About 14 of the 110 febrile episodes were associated with septic shock causing mortality in 7 patients. In a univariate analysis variables associated with septic shock were: pulmonary infection (OR = 17, p = 0.001), serum bicarbonate < 17 mmol/l (OR = 68, p < 0.001) and serum lactate >3 mmol/l (OR = 62, p < 0.001). Variables associated with mortality were: pulmonary infection (OR = 83, p < 0.001) and serum bicarbonate < 17 mmol/l (OR = 61, p < 0.001). In a multivariate analysis two variables were associated with septic shock: pulmonary infection (OR = 5, p = 0.043) and serum lactate >3 mmol/l (OR = 10, p = 0.003). An elevated serum lactate (>3 mmol/l) and low serum bicarbonate ( < 17 mmol/l) at the onset of bacteremia are useful biomarkers in predicting septic shock and mortality in neutropenic patients.

  13. Readmission after Colectomy for Cancer Predicts One-Year Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Greenblatt, David Yu; Weber, Sharon M.; O’Connor, Erin S.; LoConte, Noelle K.; Liou, Jinn-Ing; Smith, Maureen A.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives Early hospital readmission is a common and costly problem in the Medicare population. In 2009, the Centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services began mandating hospital reporting of disease-specific readmission rates. We sought to determine the rate and predictors of readmission after colectomy for cancer, as well as the association between readmission and mortality. Methods Medicare beneficiaries who underwent colectomy for stage I-III colon adenocarcinoma from 1992–2002 were identified from the SEER-Medicare database. Multivariate logistic regression identified predictors of early readmission and one-year mortality. Odds ratios were adjusted for multiple factors, including measures of comorbidity, socioeconomic status, and disease severity. Results Of 42,348 patients who were discharged, 4,662 (11.0%) were readmitted within 30 days. The most common causes of rehospitalization were ileus/obstruction and infection. Significant predictors of readmission included male gender, comorbidity, emergent admission, prolonged hospital stay, blood transfusion, ostomy, and discharge to nursing home. Readmission was inversely associated with hospital procedure volume, but not surgeon volume. After adjusting for potential confounding variables, the predicted probability of one-year mortality was 16% for readmitted patients, compared to 7% for those not readmitted. This difference in mortality was significant for all stages of cancer. Conclusions Early readmission after colectomy for cancer is common and due in part to modifiable factors. There is a remarkable association between readmission and one-year mortality. Early readmission is therefore an important quality-of-care indicator for colon cancer surgery. These findings may facilitate the development of targeted interventions that will decrease readmissions and improve patient outcomes. PMID:20224370

  14. Life span decrements in fluid intelligence and processing speed predict mortality risk.

    PubMed

    Aichele, Stephen; Rabbitt, Patrick; Ghisletta, Paolo

    2015-09-01

    We examined life span changes in 5 domains of cognitive performance as predictive of mortality risk. Data came from the Manchester Longitudinal Study of Cognition, a 20-plus-year investigation of 6,203 individuals ages 42-97 years. Cognitive domains were general crystallized intelligence, general fluid intelligence, verbal memory, visuospatial memory, and processing speed. Life span decrements were evident across these domains, controlling for baseline performance at age 70 and adjusting for retest effects. Survival analyses stratified by sex and conducted independently by cognitive domain showed that lower baseline performance levels in all domains-and larger life span decrements in general fluid intelligence and processing speed-were predictive of increased mortality risk for both women and men. Critically, analyses of the combined predictive power of cognitive performance variables showed that baseline levels of processing speed (in women) and general fluid intelligence (in men), and decrements in processing speed (in women and in men) and general fluid intelligence (in women), accounted for most of the explained variation in mortality risk. In light of recent evidence from brain-imaging studies, we speculate that cognitive abilities closely linked to cerebral white matter integrity (such as processing speed and general fluid intelligence) may represent particularly sensitive markers of mortality risk. In addition, we presume that greater complexity in cognition-survival associations observed in women (in analyses incorporating all cognitive predictors) may be a consequence of longer and more variable cognitive declines in women relative to men.

  15. Prediction using patient comparison vs. modeling: a case study for mortality prediction.

    PubMed

    Hoogendoorn, Mark; El Hassouni, Ali; Mok, Kwongyen; Ghassemi, Marzyeh; Szolovits, Peter

    2016-08-01

    Information in Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) can be used to generate accurate predictions for the occurrence of a variety of health states, which can contribute to more pro-active interventions. The very nature of EMRs does make the application of off-the-shelf machine learning techniques difficult. In this paper, we study two approaches to making predictions that have hardly been compared in the past: (1) extracting high-level (temporal) features from EMRs and building a predictive model, and (2) defining a patient similarity metric and predicting based on the outcome observed for similar patients. We analyze and compare both approaches on the MIMIC-II ICU dataset to predict patient mortality and find that the patient similarity approach does not scale well and results in a less accurate model (AUC of 0.68) compared to the modeling approach (0.84). We also show that mortality can be predicted within a median of 72 hours.

  16. Independent early predictors of mortality in polytrauma patients: a prospective, observational, longitudinal study

    PubMed Central

    da Costa, Luiz Guilherme V.; Carmona, Maria José C.; Malbouisson, Luiz M.; Rizoli, Sandro; Rocha-Filho, Joel Avancini; Cardoso, Ricardo Galesso; Auler-Junior, José Otávio C.

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Trauma is an important public health issue and associated with substantial socioeconomic impacts and major adverse clinical outcomes. No single study has previously investigated the predictors of mortality across all stages of care (pre-hospital, emergency room, surgical center and intensive care unit) in a general trauma population. This study was designed to identify early predictors of mortality in severely injured polytrauma patients across all stages of care to provide a better understanding of the physiologic changes and mechanisms by which to improve care in this population. METHODS: A longitudinal, prospective, observational study was conducted between 2010 and 2013 in São Paulo, Brazil. Patients submitted to high-energy trauma were included. Exclusion criteria were as follows: injury severity score <16, <18 years old or insufficient data. Clinical and laboratory data were collected at four time points: pre-hospital, emergency room, and 3 and 24 hours after hospital admission. The primary outcome assessed was mortality within 30 days. Data were analyzed using tests of association as appropriate, nonparametric analysis of variance and generalized estimating equation analysis (p<0.05). ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01669577. RESULTS: Two hundred patients were included. Independent early predictors of mortality were as follows: arterial hemoglobin oxygen saturation (p<0.001), diastolic blood pressure (p<0.001), lactate level (p<0.001), Glasgow Coma Scale score (p<0.001), infused crystalloid volume (p<0.015) and presence of traumatic brain injury (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that arterial hemoglobin oxygen saturation, diastolic blood pressure, lactate level, Glasgow Coma Scale, infused crystalloid volume and presence of traumatic brain injury are independent early mortality predictors. PMID:28954004

  17. Functional capacity as a significant independent predictor of postoperative mortality for octogenarian ASA-III patients.

    PubMed

    Visnjevac, Ognjen; Lee, Jun; Pourafkari, Leili; Dosluoglu, Hasan H; Nader, Nader D

    2014-10-01

    The American Society of Anesthesiology's (ASA) 6-point physical status classification remains one of the most significant predictors of perioperative morbidity and mortality and is the most widely used risk stratification tool worldwide. Its utility is significantly limited for octogenarians, however, as the majority of these patients are classified as ASA-III. Thus, for patients aged 80 or older, we hypothesized that incorporating patients' functional status, defined by the ability to perform activities of daily living independently, would improve perioperative risk stratification. All data were extracted from the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program, a perioperative prospectively maintained computerized database. ASA-III patients were reclassified into subgroups IIIA or IIIB, with IIIA representing functionally independent patients and IIIB representing partially or fully dependent patients. Functional status was self-reported during preoperative assessments. In this database, mortality data (primary outcome) was reliably available for all patients for the duration of the 96-month follow-up period, as were other perioperative patient data. Seven hundred and fifty-nine (72.4%) patients were classified as ASA-IIIA, and 290 (27.6%) patients were ASA-IIIB. Thirty-day and long-term survival was significantly better in the ASA-IIIA group, irrespective of type of surgery (hazard ratio 1.87, confidence interval 1.55-2.25, p < .001). ASA-IIIB hazard ratios for mortality were greatest for orthopedic and vascular surgery patients, but a significant divergence in survival between ASA-IIIA and IIIB patients was observed in all surgical specialties. As evidenced by Kaplan-Meier and multivariate analyses, functional capacity was a significant independent predictor of mortality for ASA-III patients older than 80 years of age. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Gerontological Society of America 2014.

  18. What predicts mortality in Parkinson disease?: a prospective population-based long-term study.

    PubMed

    Forsaa, E B; Larsen, J P; Wentzel-Larsen, T; Alves, G

    2010-10-05

    To identify independent risk factors of mortality in a community-based Parkinson disease (PD) cohort during prospective long-term follow-up. A community-based prevalent sample of 230 patients with PD from southwestern Norway was followed prospectively with repetitive assessments of motor and nonmotor symptoms from 1993 to 2005. Information on vital status until October 20, 2009, was obtained from the National Population Register in Norway. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to identify independent predictors of mortality during follow-up. Chronological age, Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) motor score, levodopa equivalent dose, probable REM sleep behavior disorder, psychotic symptoms, dementia, and use of antipsychotics were included as time-dependent variables, and age at onset (AAO) and sex as time-independent variables. Of 230 patients, 211 (92%) died during the study period. Median survival time from motor onset was 15.8 years (range 2.2-36.6). Independent predictors of mortality during follow-up were AAO (hazard ratio [HR] 1.40 for 10-years increase, p = 0.029), chronological age (HR 1.51 for 10-years increase, p = 0.043), male sex (HR 1.63, p = 0.001), UPDRS motor score (HR 1.18 for 10-point increase, p < 0.001), psychotic symptoms (HR 1.45, p = 0.039), and dementia (HR 1.89, p = 0.001). This population-based long-term study demonstrates that in addition to AAO, chronological age, motor severity, and dementia, psychotic symptoms independently predict increased mortality in PD. In contrast, no significant impact of antipsychotic or antiparkinsonian drugs on survival was observed in our PD cohort. Early prevention of motor progression and development of psychosis and dementia may be the most promising strategies to increase life expectancy in PD.

  19. A preoperative risk prediction model for 30-day mortality following cardiac surgery in an Australian cohort.

    PubMed

    Billah, Baki; Reid, Christopher Michael; Shardey, Gilbert C; Smith, Julian A

    2010-05-01

    Population-specific risk models are required to build consumer and provider confidence in clinical service delivery, particularly when the risks may be life-threatening. Cardiac surgery carries such risks. Currently, there is no model developed on the Australian cardiac surgery population and this article presents a novel risk prediction model for the Australian cohort with the aim to provide a guide for the surgeons and patients in assessing preoperative risk factors for cardiac surgery. This study aims to identify preoperative risk factors associated with 30-day mortality following cardiac surgery for an Australian population and to develop a preoperative model for risk prediction. All patients (23016) undergoing cardiac surgery between July 2001 and June 2008 recorded in the Australian Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ASCTS) database were included in this analysis. The data were divided randomly into model creation (13810, 60%) and model validation (9206, 40%) sets. The model was developed on the creation set and then validated on the validation set. The bootstrap sampling and automated variable selection methods were used to develop several candidate models. The final model was selected from this group of candidate models by using prediction mean square error (MSE) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC). Using a multifold validation, the average receiver operating characteristic (ROC), p-value for Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-squared test and MSE were obtained. Risk thresholds for low-, moderate- and high-risk patients were defined. The expected and observed mortality for various risk groups were compared. The multicollinearity and first-order interaction effect between clinically meaningful risk factors were investigated. A total of 23016 patients underwent cardiac surgery and the 30-day mortality rate was 3.2% (728 patients). Independent predictors of mortality in the model were: age, sex, the New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, urgency of procedure

  20. Comparison of Nutritional Risk Scores for Predicting Mortality in Japanese Chronic Hemodialysis Patients.

    PubMed

    Takahashi, Hiroshi; Inoue, Keiko; Shimizu, Kazue; Hiraga, Keiko; Takahashi, Erika; Otaki, Kaori; Yoshikawa, Taeko; Furuta, Kumiko; Tokunaga, Chika; Sakakibara, Tomoyo; Ito, Yasuhiko

    2017-05-01

    Protein energy wasting (PEW) is consistently associated with poor prognosis in hemodialysis (HD) patients. We compared the predictability of PEW as diagnosed by The International Society of Renal Nutrition and Metabolism criteria (PEWISRNM) and geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) for all-cause mortality in Japanese HD patients. As cut-off values for body mass index (BMI) for PEW have not been established in PEWISRNM for Asian populations, these were also investigated. The nutritional status from 409 HD patients was evaluated according to ISRNM and GNRI criteria. To compare the predictability of mortality, C-index, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement were evaluated. During follow-up (median, 52 months; range, 7 months), 70 patients (17.1%) presented PEW according to ISRNM and 131 patients (32.1%) according to GNRI; in addition, 101 patients (24.7%) died. PEWISRNM and GNRI were identified as independent predictors of death. Addition of PEWISRNM and GNRI to a predictive model based on established risk factors improved NRI and integrated discrimination improvement. However, no differences were found between models including PEWISRNM and GNRI. When lowering the criterion level of BMI per 1 kg/m(2) sequentially, PEWISRNM at BMI <20 kg/m(2) maximized the hazard ratio for mortality. The model including PEWISRNM at BMI <20 kg/m(2) improved NRI compared with the model including GNRI. PEWISRNM and GNRI represent independent predictors of mortality, with comparable predictability. The diagnostic criterion of BMI in the ISRNM for Japanese population might be better at <20 kg/m(2) than at <23 kg/m(2). Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. [Female sex is not an independent risk factor in mortality during myocardial revascularization].

    PubMed

    Bergerone, S; Brscic, E; Comoglio, C; Aidala, E; Lascala, E; Pansini, S; Di Summa, M; Brusca, A

    1997-12-01

    To assess if female sex is an independent risk factor for perioperatory mortality and morbidity, we have evaluated 971 consecutive patients (16% women) undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery at the Cardiovascular Disease Institution of the University of Turin from 1988 to 1990. In this study at baseline women were older and more likely to have diabetes, lower ventricular score and body surface area than men. As compared to men, women underwent surgery with delay: the surgical mortality rate and prevalence of arrhythmias were higher, and the size of the left anterior descending was smaller. At univariate analysis perioperative risk factors were as follows: age, diabetes, clinical instability, low body surface area, perioperatory infarction, postoperative infections, extracorporeal circulation time and left coronary size. At multivariate analysis only diabetes, left ventricular score, left anterior descending coronary size and emergency surgery were independent risk factors while sex, age and body surface area were not predictors of perioperatory mortality and morbidity. It is concluded that gender is not the cause of worse outcome in women.

  2. Quantifying the Value of Biomarkers for Predicting Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Goldman, Noreen; Glei, Dana A.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose In light of widespread interest in the prognostic value of biomarkers, we apply three discrimination measures to evaluate the incremental value of biomarkers –beyond self-reported measures – for predicting all-cause mortality. We assess whether all three measures –AUC, NRI(>0), and IDI – lead to the same conclusions. Methods We use longitudinal data from a nationally representative sample of older Taiwanese (n = 639, aged 54+ in 2000, examined in 2000 and 2006, with mortality follow-up through 2011). We estimate age-specific mortality using a Gompertz hazard model. Results The broad conclusions are consistent across the three discrimination measures and support the inclusion of biomarkers, particularly inflammatory markers, in household surveys. Although the rank ordering of individual biomarkers varies across discrimination measures, the following is true for all three: interleukin-6 is the strongest predictor, the other three inflammatory markers make the top 10, and homocysteine ranks second or third. Conclusions The consistency of most of our findings across metrics should provide comfort to researchers using discrimination measures to evaluate the prognostic value of biomarkers. However, because the degree of consistency varies with the level of detail inherent in the research question, we recommend that researchers confirm results with multiple discrimination measures. PMID:26419291

  3. Pediatric trauma BIG score: Predicting mortality in polytraumatized pediatric patients.

    PubMed

    El-Gamasy, Mohamed Abd El-Aziz; Elezz, Ahmed Abd El Basset Abo; Basuni, Ahmed Sobhy Mohamed; Elrazek, Mohamed El Sayed Ali Abd

    2016-11-01

    Trauma is a worldwide health problem and the major cause of death and disability, particularly affecting the young population. It is important to remember that pediatric trauma care has made a significant improvement in the outcomes of these injured children. This study aimed at evaluation of pediatric trauma BIG score in comparison with New Injury Severity Score (NISS) and Pediatric Trauma Score (PTS) in Tanta University Emergency Hospital. The study was conducted in Tanta University Emergency Hospital to all multiple trauma pediatric patients attended to the Emergency Department for 1 year. Pediatric trauma BIG score, PTS, and NISS scores were calculated and results compared to each other and to observed mortality. BIG score ≥12.7 has sensitivity 86.7% and specificity 71.4%, whereas PTS at value ≤3.5 has sensitivity 63.3% and specificity 68.6% and NISS at value ≥39.5 has sensitivity 53.3% and specificity 54.3%. There was a significant positive correlation between BIG score value and mortality rate. The pediatric BIG score is a reliable mortality-prediction score for children with traumatic injuries; it uses international normalization ratio (INR), Base Excess (BE), and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) values that can be measured within a few minutes of sampling, so it can be readily applied in the Pediatric Emergency Department, but it cannot be applied on patients with chronic diseases that affect INR, BE, or GCS.

  4. Pediatric trauma BIG score: Predicting mortality in polytraumatized pediatric patients

    PubMed Central

    El-Gamasy, Mohamed Abd El-Aziz; Elezz, Ahmed Abd El Basset Abo; Basuni, Ahmed Sobhy Mohamed; Elrazek, Mohamed El Sayed Ali Abd

    2016-01-01

    Background: Trauma is a worldwide health problem and the major cause of death and disability, particularly affecting the young population. It is important to remember that pediatric trauma care has made a significant improvement in the outcomes of these injured children. Aim of the Work: This study aimed at evaluation of pediatric trauma BIG score in comparison with New Injury Severity Score (NISS) and Pediatric Trauma Score (PTS) in Tanta University Emergency Hospital. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted in Tanta University Emergency Hospital to all multiple trauma pediatric patients attended to the Emergency Department for 1 year. Pediatric trauma BIG score, PTS, and NISS scores were calculated and results compared to each other and to observed mortality. Results: BIG score ≥12.7 has sensitivity 86.7% and specificity 71.4%, whereas PTS at value ≤3.5 has sensitivity 63.3% and specificity 68.6% and NISS at value ≥39.5 has sensitivity 53.3% and specificity 54.3%. There was a significant positive correlation between BIG score value and mortality rate. Conclusion: The pediatric BIG score is a reliable mortality-prediction score for children with traumatic injuries; it uses international normalization ratio (INR), Base Excess (BE), and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) values that can be measured within a few minutes of sampling, so it can be readily applied in the Pediatric Emergency Department, but it cannot be applied on patients with chronic diseases that affect INR, BE, or GCS. PMID:27994378

  5. Underweight Status Is an Independent Predictor of In-Hospital Mortality in Pediatric Patients on Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation.

    PubMed

    Anton-Martin, Pilar; Papacostas, Michael; Lee, Elisabeth; Nakonezny, Paul A; Green, Michael L

    2016-10-13

    Malnutrition is associated with an increased risk of mortality in patients admitted to the intensive care unit. Children requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support represent an extremely ill subset of this population. There is a lack of data on the impact of nutrition state on survival in this cohort. We examined the association between being underweight and in-hospital mortality among children supported with ECMO. This article reports on an observational retrospective cohort study performed among neonatal and pediatric patients supported with ECMO in a tertiary children's hospital from May 1996 through June 2013. Nutrition status on intensive care unit admission was defined with z scores on weight for length and body mass index. Patients (N = 491) had a median age of 31 days (interquartile range, 2-771): 24.4% were underweight, and 8.9% were obese. During ECMO support, 88.3% received total parenteral nutrition, and 30.3% received enteral nutrition. Median maximum energy intake while receiving ECMO was 82 kcal/kg/d (interquartile range, 54.7-105). Multiple logistic regression showed that underweight status was associated with increased predicted odds of in-hospital mortality when compared with normal weight (odds ratio: 1.99, 95% confidence interval: 1.21-3.25, P = .006). Other factors associated with increased odds of mortality included extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation and the need for continuous renal replacement therapy. Underweight status was an independent predictor for in-hospital mortality in our cohort of pediatric ECMO patients. Prospective studies evaluating the impact of metabolic state of children on ECMO should further define this relationship. © 2016 American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition.

  6. Predicting mortality in the intensive care unit: a comparison of the University Health Consortium expected probability of mortality and the Mortality Prediction Model III.

    PubMed

    Lipshutz, Angela K M; Feiner, John R; Grimes, Barbara; Gropper, Michael A

    2016-01-01

    Quality benchmarks are increasingly being used to compare the delivery of healthcare, and may affect reimbursement in the future. The University Health Consortium (UHC) expected probability of mortality (EPM) is one such quality benchmark. Although the UHC EPM is used to compare quality across UHC members, it has not been prospectively validated in the critically ill. We aimed to define the performance characteristics of the UHC EPM in the critically ill and compare its ability to predict mortality with the Mortality Prediction Model III (MPM-III). The first 100 consecutive adult patients discharged from the hospital (including deaths) each quarter from January 1, 2009 until September 30, 2011 that had an intensive care unit (ICU) stay were included. We assessed model discrimination, calibration, and overall performance, and compared the two models using Bland-Altman plots. Eight hundred ninety-one patients were included. Both the UHC EPM and the MPM-III had excellent performance (Brier score 0.05 and 0.06, respectively). The area under the curve was good for both models (UHC 0.90, MPM-III 0.87, p = 0.28). Goodness of fit was statistically significant for both models (UHC p = 0.002, MPM-III p = 0.0003), but improved with logit transformation (UHC p = 0.41; MPM-III p = 0.07). The Bland-Altman plot showed good agreement at extremes of mortality, but agreement diverged as mortality approached 50 %. The UHC EPM exhibited excellent overall performance, calibration, and discrimination, and performed similarly to the MPM-III. Correlation between the two models was poor due to divergence when mortality was maximally uncertain.

  7. Prediction of mortality after radical cystectomy for bladder cancer by machine learning techniques.

    PubMed

    Wang, Guanjin; Lam, Kin-Man; Deng, Zhaohong; Choi, Kup-Sze

    2015-08-01

    Bladder cancer is a common cancer in genitourinary malignancy. For muscle invasive bladder cancer, surgical removal of the bladder, i.e. radical cystectomy, is in general the definitive treatment which, unfortunately, carries significant morbidities and mortalities. Accurate prediction of the mortality of radical cystectomy is therefore needed. Statistical methods have conventionally been used for this purpose, despite the complex interactions of high-dimensional medical data. Machine learning has emerged as a promising technique for handling high-dimensional data, with increasing application in clinical decision support, e.g. cancer prediction and prognosis. Its ability to reveal the hidden nonlinear interactions and interpretable rules between dependent and independent variables is favorable for constructing models of effective generalization performance. In this paper, seven machine learning methods are utilized to predict the 5-year mortality of radical cystectomy, including back-propagation neural network (BPN), radial basis function (RBFN), extreme learning machine (ELM), regularized ELM (RELM), support vector machine (SVM), naive Bayes (NB) classifier and k-nearest neighbour (KNN), on a clinicopathological dataset of 117 patients of the urology unit of a hospital in Hong Kong. The experimental results indicate that RELM achieved the highest average prediction accuracy of 0.8 at a fast learning speed. The research findings demonstrate the potential of applying machine learning techniques to support clinical decision making.

  8. Lower serum uric acid level predicts mortality in dialysis patients

    PubMed Central

    Bae, Eunjin; Cho, Hyun-Jeong; Shin, Nara; Kim, Sun Moon; Yang, Seung Hee; Kim, Dong Ki; Kim, Yong-Lim; Kang, Shin-Wook; Yang, Chul Woo; Kim, Nam Ho; Kim, Yon Su; Lee, Hajeong

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We evaluated the impact of serum uric acid (SUA) on mortality in patients with chronic dialysis. A total of 4132 adult patients on dialysis were enrolled prospectively between August 2008 and September 2014. Among them, we included 1738 patients who maintained dialysis for at least 3 months and had available SUA in the database. We categorized the time averaged-SUA (TA-SUA) into 5 groups: <5.5, 5.5–6.4, 6.5–7.4, 7.5–8.4, and ≥8.5 mg/dL. Cox regression analysis was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality according to SUA group. The mean TA-SUA level was slightly higher in men than in women. Patients with lower TA-SUA level tended to have lower body mass index (BMI), phosphorus, serum albumin level, higher proportion of diabetes mellitus (DM), and higher proportion of malnourishment on the subjective global assessment (SGA). During a median follow-up of 43.9 months, 206 patients died. Patients with the highest SUA had a similar risk to the middle 3 TA-SUA groups, but the lowest TA-SUA group had a significantly elevated HR for mortality. The lowest TA-SUA group was significantly associated with increased all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.720; 95% confidence interval, 1.007–2.937; P = 0.047) even after adjusting for demographic, comorbid, nutritional covariables, and medication use that could affect SUA levels. This association was prominent in patients with well nourishment on the SGA, a preserved serum albumin level, a higher BMI, and concomitant DM although these parameters had no significant interaction in the TA-SUA-mortality relationship except DM. In conclusion, a lower TA-SUA level <5.5 mg/dL predicted all-cause mortality in patients with chronic dialysis. PMID:27310949

  9. Predicting the stroke patient's ability to live independently.

    PubMed

    DeJong, G; Branch, L G

    1982-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to identify those variables that best predict a stroke patient's ability to live independently following his/her discharge from medical rehabilitation. The paper draws heavily on a formal research model grounded in independent living (IL) theory. Independent living is defined and operationalized as (1) the patient's ability to live in a nonrestrictive environment and (2) the patient's ability to live productively--not only in terms of gainful employment but also in terms of other contributions to community and family life. The main data source for the study is an extensive computer file of 84 stroke patients discharged from 8 medical rehabilitation centers. The multivariate statistical analysis indicates that 56 to 80 percent of the variance in a patient's ability to live independently can be explained or predicted mainly by the patient's marital status, age, Barthel score, communication impairments, and the ability to get into a motor vehicle. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of the findings for medical rehabilitation and public policy.

  10. Plasma Lactate Dehydrogenase Levels Predict Mortality in Acute Aortic Syndromes

    PubMed Central

    Morello, Fulvio; Ravetti, Anna; Nazerian, Peiman; Liedl, Giovanni; Veglio, Maria Grazia; Battista, Stefania; Vanni, Simone; Pivetta, Emanuele; Montrucchio, Giuseppe; Mengozzi, Giulio; Rinaldi, Mauro; Moiraghi, Corrado; Lupia, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In acute aortic syndromes (AAS), organ malperfusion represents a key event impacting both on diagnosis and outcome. Increased levels of plasma lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), a biomarker of malperfusion, have been reported in AAS, but the performance of LDH for the diagnosis of AAS and the relation of LDH with outcome in AAS have not been evaluated so far. This was a bi-centric prospective diagnostic accuracy study and a cohort outcome study. From 2008 to 2014, patients from 2 Emergency Departments suspected of having AAS underwent LDH assay at presentation. A final diagnosis was obtained by aortic imaging. Patients diagnosed with AAS were followed-up for in-hospital mortality. One thousand five hundred seventy-eight consecutive patients were clinically eligible, and 999 patients were included in the study. The final diagnosis was AAS in 201 (20.1%) patients. Median LDH was 424 U/L (interquartile range [IQR] 367–557) in patients with AAS and 383 U/L (IQR 331–460) in patients with alternative diagnoses (P < 0.001). Using a cutoff of 450 U/L, the sensitivity of LDH for AAS was 44% (95% confidence interval [CI] 37–51) and the specificity was 73% (95% CI 69–76). Overall in-hospital mortality for AAS was 23.8%. Mortality was 32.6% in patients with LDH ≥ 450 U/L and 16.8% in patients with LDH < 450 U/L (P = 0.006). Following stratification according to LDH quartiles, in-hospital mortality was 12% in the first (lowest) quartile, 18.4% in the second quartile, 23.5% in the third quartile, and 38% in the fourth (highest) quartile (P = 0.01). LDH ≥ 450 U/L was further identified as an independent predictor of death in AAS both in univariate and in stepwise logistic regression analyses (odds ratio 2.28, 95% CI 1.11–4.66; P = 0.025), in addition to well-established risk markers such as advanced age and hypotension. Subgroup analysis showed excess mortality in association with LDH ≥ 450 U/L in elderly, hemodynamically stable

  11. Echocardiographic parameters of right ventricular function predict mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome: a pilot study

    PubMed Central

    Wadia, Subeer K.; Kovach, Julie; Fogg, Louis; Tandon, Rajive

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Right ventricular (RV) dysfunction in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) contributes to increased mortality. Our aim is to identify reproducible transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) parameters of RV dysfunction that can be used to predict outcomes in ARDS. We performed a retrospective single-center cohort pilot study measuring tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE), Tei index, RV-fractional area change (RV-FAC), pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP), and septal shift, reevaluated by an independent blinded cardiologist (JK). Thirty-eight patients were included. Patients were divided on the basis of 30-day survival. Thirty-day mortality was 47%. Survivors were younger than nonsurvivors. Survivors had a higher pH, PaO2∶FiO2 ratio, and TAPSE. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores were lower in survivors. TAPSE has the strongest association with increased 30-day mortality from date of TTE. Accordingly, TAPSE has a strong positive correlation with PaO2∶FiO2 ratios, and Tei index has a strong negative correlation with PaO2∶FiO2 ratios. Septal shift was associated with lower PaO2∶FiO2 ratios. Decrease in TAPSE, increase in Tei index, and septal shift were seen in the severe ARDS group. In multivariate logistic regression models, TAPSE maintained a significant association with mortality independent of age, pH, PaO2∶FiO2 ratios, positive end expiratory pressure, PCO2, serum bicarbonate, plateau pressures, driving pressures, APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA scores. In conclusion, TAPSE and other TTE parameters should be used as novel predictive indicators for RV dysfunction in ARDS. These parameters can be used as surrogate noninvasive RV hemodynamic measurements to be manipulated to improve mortality in patients with ARDS and contributory RV dysfunction. PMID:27252840

  12. Early hospital readmission in decompensated cirrhosis: Incidence, impact on mortality, and predictive factors.

    PubMed

    Morales, Betty P; Planas, Ramon; Bartoli, Ramon; Morillas, Rosa M; Sala, Margarita; Cabré, Eduard; Casas, Irma; Masnou, Helena

    2017-08-01

    The early hospital readmission of patients with decompensated cirrhosis is a current problem. A study is presented on the incidence, the impact on mortality, and the predictive factors of early hospital readmission. On the study included 112 cirrhotic patients, discharged after some decompensation between January 2013 and May 2014. Multivariate analyses were performed to identify predictors of early readmission and mortality. The early readmission rate was 29.5%. The predictive factors were male gender (OR: 2.81; 95% CI: 1.07-7.35), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-sodium score ≥15 (OR: 3.79; 95% CI 1.48-9.64), and Charlson index ≥7 (OR: 4.34, 95% CI 1.65-11.4). This model enabled patients to be classified into low or high risk of early readmissions (13.6% vs. 52.2%). The mortality rate was significantly higher among patients with early readmission (73% vs. 35%) (p<.0001). After adjusting for the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-sodium score, Charlson index, dependence in activities of daily living, educational status, and number of medications on discharge, the early readmission was independently associated with mortality. Early hospital readmission is common, and is independently associated with mortality. Male gender, MELD-Na ≥15, and Charlson index ≥7 are predictors of early readmission. These results could be used to develop future strategies to reduce early readmission. Copyright © 2017 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Global trends and predictions in ovarian cancer mortality.

    PubMed

    Malvezzi, M; Carioli, G; Rodriguez, T; Negri, E; La Vecchia, C

    2016-11-01

    Over the last two decades, ovarian cancer mortality rates have levelled or declined. There are, however, persisting and substantial differences in ovarian cancer patterns and trends. We updated global trends in ovarian cancer mortality to 2012, and predicted trends in rates to 2020 using data from the World Health Organization database. In the EU, age-adjusted ovarian cancer mortality rates decreased 10% between 2002 and 2012, to 5.2/100 000. The decline was ∼16% in the USA, to 4.9/100 000 in 2012. Latin American countries had lower rates, and declines were observed in Argentina and Chile. Likewise, modest declines (-2.1%) were observed in Japan, whose rate remained low (3.2/100 000 in 2012). Australia had a rate of 4.3/100 000 in 2012, and a 12% decline. The falls were larger in young women, than in middle or old age. Recent rates at age 20-49 were higher in Japan than in the EU and the USA. Predictions to 2020 indicate a further 15% decline in the USA and 10% in the EU and Japan. The main reason for the favourable trends is the use of oral contraceptives (OCs), particularly, in the USA and countries of the EU where OCs were introduced earlier. Declines in menopausal hormone use may also have played a favourable role in elderly women, as well as improved diagnosis, management and treatment. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D.

    2015-07-01

    Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

  15. Birth Weight Independently Affects Morbidity and Mortality of Extremely Preterm Neonates

    PubMed Central

    Mamopoulos, Apostolos; Petousis, Stamatios; Tsimpanakos, John; Masouridou, Sophia; Kountourelli, Kelly; Margioula-Siarkou, Chrysoula; Papouli, Maria; Rousso, David

    2015-01-01

    Background Neonates born between 24 + 0 and 27 + 6 gestational weeks, widely known as extremely preterm neonates, present a category characterized by increased neonatal mortality and morbidity. Main objective of the present study is to analyze the effect of various epidemiological and pregnancy-related parameters on unfavorable neonatal mortality and morbidity outcomes. Methods A retrospective study was performed enrolling cases delivered during 2003 - 2008 in our department. Cases of neonatal death as well as pathological Apgar score (≤ 4 in the first and ≤ 7 in the fifth minute of life), need for emergency resuscitation, respiratory disease syndrome (RDS), neonatal asphyxia, intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) and neonatal death were recorded for neonates of our analysis. A multivariate regression model was used to correlate these outcomes with gestational week at delivery, maternal age, parity, kind of gestation (singleton or multiple), intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), birth weight (BW), preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM), mode of delivery (vaginal delivery or cesarean section) and antenatal use of corticosteroids. Results Out of 5,070 pregnancies delivered, 57 extremely preterm neonates were born (1.1%). Mean BW was 780.35 ± 176.0, RDS was observed in 93.0% (n = 53), resuscitation was needed in 54.4% (n = 31) while overall mortality rate was 52.6% (n = 30). BW was independently associated with neonatal death (P = 0.004), pathological Apgar score in the first (P = 0.05) and fifth minute of life (P = 0.04) as well as neonatal sepsis (P = 0.05). Conclusion BW at delivery is independently affecting neonatal mortality and morbidity parameters in extremely preterm neonates. PMID:26015815

  16. Lower plasma visceral protein concentrations are independently associated with higher mortality in patients on peritoneal dialysis.

    PubMed

    Huang, Rong; Liu, Yun; Wu, Haishan; Guo, Qunying; Yi, Chunyan; Lin, Jianxiong; Zhou, Qian; Yu, Xueqing; Yang, Xiao

    2015-02-28

    Protein-energy wasting (PEW) is strongly associated with high mortality in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients. However, its clinical assessment has not been well defined. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between combined nutritional indicators and mortality in CAPD patients. In the present retrospective cohort study, a total of 885 incident CAPD patients were enrolled. Nutritional status at the initiation of CAPD was assessed by BMI and biochemical indices (serum albumin, prealbumin, transferrin, creatinine and total cholesterol). The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Principal components factor analysis was used to identify the combined nutritional parameters. Their association with mortality was examined by multivariable-adjusted Cox models. The mean age was 47·4 (SD 14·8) years, 59·2 % (n 524) were male and 24·6 % (n 218) were diabetic. Of the total patients, 130 (14·7 %) had BMI < 18·5 kg/m², 439 (49·6 %) had albumin < 38 g/l ( < 3·8 g/dl), 303 (34·2 %) had prealbumin < 300 mg/l ( < 30 mg/dl), 404 (45·6 %) had transferrin < 2 g/l ( < 200 mg/dl), 501 (56·6 %) had total cholesterol < 5·2 mmol/l ( < 200 mg/dl) and 466 (52·7 %) had creatinine < 707 μmol/l ( < 8 mg/dl). Overall, three components such as visceral proteins, muscle-mass surrogate and BMI were extracted, which explained 69·95 % of the total variance of the nutritional parameters. After adjusting for demographic variables, co-morbid conditions, Hb, TAG and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, the factor score of visceral proteins including albumin, prealbumin and transferrin was independently associated with mortality (hazard ratio 0·73, 95 % CI 0·60, 0·89; P= 0·002). Lower visceral protein concentrations may be independently associated with higher mortality in incident CAPD patients. Simultaneous measurements of serum albumin, prealbumin and transferrin could be helpful to monitor PEW.

  17. Emergency department length of stay is an independent predictor of hospital mortality in trauma activation patients.

    PubMed

    Mowery, Nathan T; Dougherty, Stacy D; Hildreth, Amy N; Holmes, James H; Chang, Michael C; Martin, R Shayn; Hoth, J Jason; Meredith, J Wayne; Miller, Preston R

    2011-06-01

    The early resuscitation occurs in the emergency department (ED) where intensive care unit protocols do not always extend and monitoring capabilities vary. Our hypothesis is that increased ED length of stay (LOS) leads to increased hospital mortality in patients not undergoing immediate surgical intervention. We examined all trauma activation admissions from January 2002 to July 2009 admitted to the Trauma Service (n = 3,973). Exclusion criteria were as follows: patients taken to the operating room within the first 2 hours of ED arrival, nonsurvivable brain injury, and ED deaths. Patients spending >5 hours in the ED were not included in the analysis because of significantly lower acuity and mortality. Patients spent a mean of 3.2 hours ± 1 hour in the ED during their initial evaluation. Hospital mortality increases for each additional hour a patient spends in the ED, with 8.3% of the patients staying in the ED between 4 hours and 5 hours ultimately dying (p = 0.028). ED LOS measured in minutes is an independent predictor of mortality (odds ratio, 1.003; 95% confidence interval, 1.010-1.006; p = 0.014) when accounting for Injury Severity Score, Revised Trauma Score, and age. Linear regression showed that a longer ED LOS was associated with anatomic injury pattern rather than physiologic derangement. In this patient population, a longer ED LOS is associated with an increased hospital mortality even when controlling for physiologic, demographic, and anatomic factors. This highlights the importance of rapid progression of patients through the initial evaluation process to facilitate placement in a location that allows implementation of early goal directed trauma resuscitation.

  18. Anemia on Admission Is an Independent Predictor of Long-Term Mortality in Hip Fracture Population

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Licheng; Yin, Pengbin; Lv, Houchen; Long, Anhua; Gao, Yuan; Zhang, Lihai; Tang, Peifu

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Anemia is a disputable factor for long-term mortality in hip fracture population in previous studies. Previous studies indicated that the level of hemoglobin (Hb) might fluctuate due to various factors, such as comorbidities and in-hospital interventions, and the changing level of Hb, may lead to discordance diagnosis of anemia and thus to the conflicting conclusions on prognostic value of anemia. So in this study, we aim to compare factors affecting the diagnosis of anemia at different time-points, admission, postoperation, and discharge, and to determine which the time point is most suitable for mortality prediction. This prospective cohort study included 1330 hip fracture patients from 1 January 2000 to 18 November 2012. Hb levels at 3 different time points, such as admission, postoperation, and discharge, were collected and used to stratify the cohort into anemia and nonanemia groups. Candidate factors including commodities, perioperative factors, blood transfusion, and other in-hospital interventions were collected before discharge. Logistic regression analyses were performed to detect risk factors for anemia for the 3 time points separately. Kaplan–Meier and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the association between anemia and 2-year mortality. Factors affecting the diagnosis of anemia were different for the 3 time points. Age, female sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists score (ASA), and intertrochanteric fracture were associated with admission anemia, while surgical procedure, surgical duration, blood transfusion, blood loss during the operation, and drainage volume were major risk factors for postoperation anemia. Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis suggested that the risk of all-cause mortality was higher in the anemia group on admission (1.680, 95%CI: 1.201–2.350, P < 0.01), but not postoperation or on discharge, after adjustment for confounding factors. Our study showed that risk factors for anemia

  19. Does Parsonnet scoring model predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery in India?

    PubMed Central

    Srilata, Moningi; Padhy, Narmada; Padmaja, Durga; Gopinath, Ramachandran

    2015-01-01

    Aims and Objectives: To validate the Parsonnet scoring model to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery in Indian scenario. Materials and Methods: A total of 889 consecutive patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery between January 2010 and April 2011 were included in the study. The Parsonnet score was determined for each patient and its predictive ability for in-hospital mortality was evaluated. The validation of Parsonnet score was performed for the total data and separately for the sub-groups coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), valve surgery and combined procedures (CABG with valve surgery). The model calibration was performed using Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit test and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis for discrimination. Independent predictors of mortality were assessed from the variables used in the Parsonnet score by multivariate regression analysis. Results: The overall mortality was 6.3% (56 patients), 7.1% (34 patients) for CABG, 4.3% (16 patients) for valve surgery and 16.2% (6 patients) for combined procedures. The Hosmer–Lemeshow statistic was <0.05 for the total data and also within the sub-groups suggesting that the predicted outcome using Parsonnet score did not match the observed outcome. The area under the ROC curve for the total data was 0.699 (95% confidence interval 0.62–0.77) and when tested separately, it was 0.73 (0.64–0.81) for CABG, 0.79 (0.63–0.92) for valve surgery (good discriminatory ability) and only 0.55 (0.26–0.83) for combined procedures. The independent predictors of mortality determined for the total data were low ejection fraction (odds ratio [OR] - 1.7), preoperative intra-aortic balloon pump (OR - 10.7), combined procedures (OR - 5.1), dialysis dependency (OR - 23.4), and re-operation (OR - 9.4). Conclusions: The Parsonnet score yielded a good predictive value for valve surgeries, moderate predictive value for the total data and for CABG and poor predictive value for combined

  20. Saddle Pulmonary Embolism: Laboratory and Computed Tomographic Pulmonary Angiographic Findings to Predict Short-term Mortality.

    PubMed

    Liu, Min; Miao, Ran; Guo, Xiaojuan; Zhu, Li; Zhang, Hongxia; Hou, Qing; Guo, Youmin; Yang, Yuanhua

    2017-02-01

    Saddle pulmonary embolism (SPE) is rare type of acute pulmonary embolism and there is debate about its treatment and prognosis. Our aim is to assess laboratory and computed tomographic pulmonary angiographic (CTPA) findings to predict short-term mortality in patients with SPE. This was a five-centre, retrospective study. The clinical information, laboratory and CTPA findings of 88 consecutive patients with SPE were collected. One-month mortality after diagnosis of SPE was the primary end-point. The correlation of laboratory and CTPA findings with one-month mortality was analysed with area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and logistic regression analysis. Eighteen patients with SPE died within one month. Receiver operating characteristic curves revealed that the cutoff values for the right and left atrial diameter ratio, the right ventricular area and left ventricular area ratio (RVa/LVa ratio), Mastora score, septal angle, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and cardiac troponin I (cTnI) for detecting early mortality were 2.15, 2.13, 69%, 57°, 3036 pg/mL and 0.18ng/mL, respectively. Using logistic regression analysis of laboratory and CTPA findings with regard to one-month mortality of SPE, RVa/LVa ratio and cTnI were shown to be independently associated with early death. A combination of cTnI and RVa/LVa ratio revealed an increase in the AUC value, but the difference did not reach significance compared with RVa/LVa or cTnI, alone (P>0.05). In patients with SPE, both the RVa/LVa ratio on CTPA and cTnI appear valuable for the prediction of short-term mortality. Copyright © 2016 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Sarcopenia predicts 1-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer: a prospective study.

    PubMed

    Huang, Dong-Dong; Chen, Xiao-Xi; Chen, Xi-Yi; Wang, Su-Lin; Shen, Xian; Chen, Xiao-Lei; Yu, Zhen; Zhuang, Cheng-Le

    2016-11-01

    One-year mortality is vital for elderly oncologic patients undergoing surgery. Recent studies have demonstrated that sarcopenia can predict outcomes after major abdominal surgeries, but the association of sarcopenia and 1-year mortality has never been investigated in a prospective study. We conducted a prospective study of elderly patients (≥65 years) who underwent curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer from July 2014 to July 2015. Sarcopenia was determined by the measurements of muscle mass, handgrip strength, and gait speed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the risk factors associated with 1-year mortality. A total of 173 patients were included, in which 52 (30.1 %) patients were identified as having sarcopenia. Twenty-four (13.9 %) patients died within 1 year of surgery. Multivariate analysis showed that sarcopenia was an independent risk factor for 1-year mortality. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated an increased predictive power for 1-year mortality with the inclusion of sarcopenia, from 0.835 to 0.868. Solely low muscle mass was not predictive of 1-year mortality in the multivariate analysis. Sarcopenia is predictive of 1-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing gastric cancer surgery. The measurement of muscle function is important for sarcopenia as a preoperative assessment tool.

  2. From hospital admission to independent living: is prediction possible?

    PubMed

    Lipskaya-Velikovsky, Lena; Kotler, Moshe; Easterbrook, Adam; Jarus, Tal

    2015-04-30

    An integral component of recovery from mental illness is being able to engage in everyday activities. This ability is often restricted among people with schizophrenia. Although functional deficits are addressed during hospitalization, the ability to predict daily functioning based on information gathered during hospitalization has not been well established. This study examines whether measurements completed during hospitalization can be useful for predicting independent living within the community. Inpatients with schizophrenia (N=104) were enrolled in the study and assessed for cognitive functioning, functional capacity and symptoms. They were approached again 6 months after discharge to evaluate their functioning with respect to everyday life Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) and Activities of Daily Living (ADL). Functional capacity during hospitalization predicted 26.8% of ADL functioning and 38.8% of IADL functioning. ADL was best predicted by the severity of negative symptoms, cognitive functioning, and the number of hospitalizations (51.2%), while IADL was best predicted by functional capacity, cognition, and number of hospitalizations (60.1%). This study provides evidence that evaluations during hospitalization can be effective, and demonstrates the advantage of a holistic approach in predicting daily functioning. When a holistic approach is not practical, a functional capacity measurement may serve as an effective predictor. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Symmetrical dimethylarginine predicts mortality in the general population: observations from the Dallas heart study.

    PubMed

    Gore, M Odette; Lüneburg, Nicole; Schwedhelm, Edzard; Ayers, Colby R; Anderssohn, Maike; Khera, Amit; Atzler, Dorothee; de Lemos, James A; Grant, Peter J; McGuire, Darren K; Böger, Rainer H

    2013-11-01

    Increased asymmetrical dimethylarginine (ADMA), a NO synthase inhibitor, and its congener symmetrical dimethylarginine (SDMA), predict cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in at-risk populations. Their prognostic value in the general population remains uncertain. We investigated the correlations of SDMA and ADMA with atherosclerosis and cardiovascular/all-cause mortality in the Dallas Heart Study, a multiethnic probability-based cohort aged 30 to 65 years. SDMA and ADMA were measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass-spectrometry (n=3523), coronary artery calcium by electron-beam computed tomography, and abdominal aortic wall thickness by MRI. In unadjusted analyses, categories of increasing SDMA and ADMA were associated with higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, increased risk markers, and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (median follow-up, 7.4 years). After adjustment for age, sex, and race, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, and renal function, SDMA and ADMA analyzed as continuous variables were associated with coronary artery calcium >10, but only SDMA was associated with abdominal aortic wall thickness. SDMA, but not ADMA, was associated with cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio per log unit change, 3.36 [95% confidence interval, 1.49-7.59]; P=0.004). SDMA and ADMA were both associated with all-cause mortality, but after further adjustment for N-terminal pro-brain-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, only SDMA was associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio per log unit change, 1.86 [95% confidence interval, 1.04-3.30]; P=0.01). SDMA, but not ADMA, was an independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a large multiethnic population-based cohort.

  4. Cholesterol esterification in plasma as a biomarker for liver function and prediction of mortality.

    PubMed

    Kaiser, Thorsten; Kinny-Köster, Benedict; Bartels, Michael; Berg, Thomas; Scholz, Markus; Engelmann, Cornelius; Seehofer, Daniel; Becker, Susen; Ceglarek, Uta; Thiery, Joachim

    2017-04-20

    Advanced stages of liver cirrhosis lead to a dramatically increased mortality. For valid identification of these patients suitable biomarkers are essential. The most important biomarkers for liver function are bilirubin and prothrombin time expressed as International Normalized Ratio (INR). However, the influence of several anticoagulants on the prothrombin time limits its diagnostic value. Aim of this study was the evaluation of cholesterol esterification (CE) fraction (esterified cholesterol vs. total cholesterol) as an alternative biomarker for liver synthesis and mortality prediction. Under physiological conditions the CE fraction in blood is closely regulated by lecithin-cholesterol acyltransferase (LCAT) which is produced in the liver. One hundred forty-two patients with liver disease clinically considered for orthotopic liver transplant for different indications were enrolled in the study. One patient was excluded because of the intake of a direct oral factor Xa inhibitor which has a strong impact on prothrombin time. Results of CE fraction were in good agreement with INR (R(2) = 0.73; p < 0.001). In patients who died or survived within three months mean CE fraction was 56% vs. 74% (p < 0.001) and mean INR was 2.0 vs. 1.3 (p < 0.001), respectively. The predictive value of CE fraction for three-month mortality risk was higher compared to INR (p = 0.04). Results for one-year mortality were comparable. The cholesterol esterification fraction is a valid biomarker for liver synthesis and allows reliable prediction of mortality. In contrast to INR, it is independent of anticoagulation and other analytical limitations of coagulation tests.

  5. Inflammation biomarkers and mortality prediction in patients with type 2 diabetes (ZODIAC-27).

    PubMed

    Landman, Gijs W D; Kleefstra, Nanne; Groenier, Klaas H; Bakker, Stephan J L; Groeneveld, Geert H; Bilo, Henk J G; van Hateren, Kornelis J J

    2016-07-01

    C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) and pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) are inflammation markers associated with long-term mortality risk. We compared the associations and predictive capacities of CRP, PCT and MR-proADM with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. This study included primary care treated patients with type 2 diabetes participating in the ZODIAC cohort study. A total of 1005 out of 1688 patients (60%) had complete baseline variables. Baseline CRP, PCT and MR-proADM were assessed in relation to cardiovascular and all-cause mortality with Cox proportional hazard analyses. Hazard Ratios (HR) were adjusted for age, gender, BMI, smoking, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol-HDL ratio, duration of diabetes, HbA1c, history of cardiovascular diseases, albumin-creatinine ratio and creatinine. Risk prediction capabilities were assessed with Harrell's C statistics and proportion of explained variance (R(2)). After a median follow-up of 11 years, 472 (47%) of 1005 patients had died. The likelihood ratio test showed that CRP and MR-proADM significantly improved prediction in cardiovascular mortality [HRs 1.20 (95%CI 1.09-1.33) and 1.56 (95%CI 1.06-2.30)] and in all-cause mortality [HRs 1.10 (95%CI: 1.03-1.18) and 1.31 (95%CI 1.02-1.69)]. Harrell's C values and R(2) measures showed slightly improved discrimination for cardiovascular mortality in patients without macrovascular disease (C: 0.80 to 0.81; R(2): 0.50 to 0.52) and MR-proADM (C: 0.80 to 0.82; R(2): 0.50 to 0.52). CRP and MR-proADM, but not PCT, were independently associated with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. In patients without macrovascular diseases, CRP and MR-proADM slightly improved discrimination, in absolute sense, of patients at risk for cardiovascular mortality. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  6. Nutritional Risk Index predicts mortality in hospitalized advanced heart failure patients.

    PubMed

    Adejumo, Oluwayemisi L; Koelling, Todd M; Hummel, Scott L

    2015-11-01

    Hospitalized advanced heart failure (HF) patients are at high risk for malnutrition and death. The Nutritional Risk Index (NRI) is a simple, well-validated tool for identifying patients at risk for nutrition-related complications. We hypothesized that, in advanced HF patients from the ESCAPE (Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness) trial, the NRI would improve risk discrimination for 6-month all-cause mortality. We analyzed the 160 ESCAPE index admission survivors with complete follow-up and NRI data, calculated as follows: NRI = (1.519 × discharge serum albumin [in g/dl]) + (41.7 × discharge weight [in kg] / ideal body weight [in kg]); as in previous studies, if discharge weight is greater than ideal body weight (IBW), this ratio was set to 1. The previously developed ESCAPE mortality model includes: age; 6-minute walk distance; cardiopulmonary resuscitation/mechanical ventilation; discharge β-blocker prescription and diuretic dose; and discharge serum sodium, blood urea nitrogen and brain natriuretic peptide levels. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling for the outcome of 6-month all-cause mortality. Thirty of 160 patients died within 6 months of hospital discharge. The median NRI was 96 (IQR 91 to 102), reflecting mild-to-moderate nutritional risk. The NRI independently predicted 6-month mortality, with adjusted HR 0.60 (95% CI 0.39 to 0.93, p = 0.02) per 10 units, and increased Harrell's c-index from 0.74 to 0.76 when added to the ESCAPE model. Body mass index and NRI at hospital admission did not predict 6-month mortality. The discharge NRI was most helpful in patients with high (≥ 20%) predicted mortality by the ESCAPE model, where observed 6-month mortality was 38% in patients with NRI < 100 and 14% in those with NRI > 100 (p = 0.04). The NRI is a simple tool that can improve mortality risk stratification at hospital discharge in hospitalized patients with advanced HF. Published by Elsevier

  7. Circulating Palmitoleate Strongly and Independently Predicts Insulin Sensitivity in Humans

    PubMed Central

    Stefan, Norbert; Kantartzis, Konstantinos; Celebi, Nora; Staiger, Harald; Machann, Jürgen; Schick, Fritz; Cegan, Alexander; Elcnerova, Michaela; Schleicher, Erwin; Fritsche, Andreas; Häring, Hans-Ulrich

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE We investigated whether palmitoleate, which prevents insulin resistance in mice, predicts insulin sensitivity in humans. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The fasting fatty acid pattern in the plasma free fatty acid (FFA) fraction was determined in 100 subjects at increased risk for type 2 diabetes. Insulin sensitivity was estimated during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at baseline and after 9 months of lifestyle intervention and measured during the euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamp (n = 79). RESULTS Circulating palmitoleate (OGTT:F ratio = 8.2, P = 0.005; clamp:F ratio = 7.8, P = 0.007) but not total FFAs (OGTT:F ratio = 0.6, P = 0.42; clamp:F ratio = 0.7, P = 0.40) correlated positively with insulin sensitivity, independently of age, sex, and adiposity. High baseline palmitoleate predicted a larger increase in insulin sensitivity. For 1-SD increase in palmitoleate, the odds ratio for being in the highest versus the lowest tertile of adjusted change in insulin sensitivity was 2.35 (95% CI 1.16–5.35). CONCLUSIONS Circulating palmitoleate strongly and independently predicts insulin sensitivity, suggesting that it plays an important role in the pathophysiology of insulin resistance in humans. PMID:19889804

  8. Variation in GYS1 Interacts with Exercise and Gender to Predict Cardiovascular Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Fredriksson, Jenny; Anevski, Dragi; Almgren, Peter; Sjögren, Marketa; Lyssenko, Valeriya; Carlson, Joyce; Isomaa, Bo; Taskinen, Marja-Riitta; Groop, Leif; Orho-Melander, Marju

    2007-01-01

    Background The muscle glycogen synthase gene (GYS1) has been associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D), the metabolic syndrome (MetS), male myocardial infarction and a defective increase in muscle glycogen synthase protein in response to exercise. We addressed the questions whether polymorphism in GYS1 can predict cardiovascular (CV) mortality in a high-risk population, if this risk is influenced by gender or physical activity, and if the association is independent of genetic variation in nearby apolipoprotein E gene (APOE). Methodology/Principal Findings Polymorphisms in GYS1 (XbaIC>T) and APOE (-219G>T, ε2/ε3/ε4) were genotyped in 4,654 subjects participating in the Botnia T2D-family study and followed for a median of eight years. Mortality analyses were performed using Cox proportional-hazards regression. During the follow-up period, 749 individuals died, 409 due to CV causes. In males the GYS1 XbaI T-allele (hazard ratio (HR) 1.9 [1.2–2.9]), T2D (2.5 [1.7–3.8]), earlier CV events (1.7 [1.2–2.5]), physical inactivity (1.9 [1.2–2.9]) and smoking (1.5 [1.0–2.3]) predicted CV mortality. The GYS1 XbaI T-allele predicted CV mortality particularly in physically active males (HR 1.7 [1.3–2.0]). Association of GYS1 with CV mortality was independent of APOE (219TT/ε4), which by its own exerted an effect on CV mortality risk in females (2.9 [1.9–4.4]). Other independent predictors of CV mortality in females were fasting plasma glucose (1.2 [1.1–1.2]), high body mass index (BMI) (1.0 [1.0–1.1]), hypertension (1.9 [1.2–3.1]), earlier CV events (1.9 [1.3–2.8]) and physical inactivity (1.9 [1.2–2.8]). Conclusions/Significance Polymorphisms in GYS1 and APOE predict CV mortality in T2D families in a gender-specific fashion and independently of each other. Physical exercise seems to unmask the effect associated with the GYS1 polymorphism, rendering carriers of the variant allele less susceptible to the protective effect of exercise on the risk of CV death

  9. Poor self-rated health predicts mortality in patients with stable chronic heart failure.

    PubMed

    Inkrot, Simone; Lainscak, Mitja; Edelmann, Frank; Loncar, Goran; Stankovic, Ivan; Celic, Vera; Apostolovic, Svetlana; Tahirovic, Elvis; Trippel, Tobias; Herrmann-Lingen, Christoph; Gelbrich, Götz; Düngen, Hans-Dirk

    2016-12-01

    In heart failure, a holistic approach incorporating the patient's perspective is vital for prognosis and treatment. Self-rated health has strong associations with adverse events and short-term mortality risk, but long-term data are limited. We investigated the predictive value of two consecutive self-rated health assessments with regard to long-term mortality in a large, well characterised sample of elderly patients with stable chronic heart failure. We measured self-rated health by asking 'In general, would you say your health is: 1, excellent; 2, very good; 3, good; 4, fair; 5, poor?' twice: at baseline and the end of a 12-week beta-blocker up-titration period in the CIBIS-ELD trial. Mortality was assessed in an observational follow-up after 2-4 years. A total of 720 patients (mean left ventricular ejection fraction 45±12%, mean age 73±5 years, 36% women) rated their health at both time points. During long-term follow-up, 144 patients died (all-cause mortality 20%). Fair/poor self-rated health in at least one of the two reports was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio 1.42 per level; 95% confidence interval 1.16-1.75; P<0.001). It remained independently significant in multiple Cox regression analysis, adjusted for N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP), heart rate and other risk prediction covariates. Self-rated health by one level worse was as predictive for mortality as a 1.9-fold increase in NTproBNP. Poor self-rated health predicts mortality in our long-term follow-up of patients with stable chronic heart failure, even after adjustment for established risk predictors. We encourage clinicians to capture patient-reported self-rated health routinely as an easy to assess, clinically meaningful measure and pay extra attention when self-rated health is poor. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

  10. Changes in Albuminuria Predict Mortality and Morbidity in Patients with Vascular Disease

    PubMed Central

    Mann, Johannes F. E.; Schumacher, Helmut; Gao, Peggy; Mancia, Giuseppe; Weber, Michael A.; McQueen, Matthew; Koon, Teo; Yusuf, Salim

    2011-01-01

    The degree of albuminuria predicts cardiovascular and renal outcomes, but it is not known whether changes in albuminuria also predict similar outcomes. In two multicenter, multinational, prospective observational studies, a central laboratory measured albuminuria in 23,480 patients with vascular disease or high-risk diabetes. We quantified the association between a greater than or equal to twofold change in albuminuria in spot urine from baseline to 2 years and the incidence of cardiovascular and renal outcomes and all-cause mortality during the subsequent 32 months. A greater than or equal to twofold increase in albuminuria from baseline to 2 years, observed in 28%, associated with nearly 50% higher mortality (HR 1.48; 95% CI 1.32 to 1.66), and a greater than or equal to twofold decrease in albuminuria, observed in 21%, associated with 15% lower mortality (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.74 to 0.98) compared with those with lesser changes in albuminuria, after adjustment for baseline albuminuria, BP, and other potential confounders. Increases in albuminuria also significantly associated with cardiovascular death, composite cardiovascular outcomes (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure), and renal outcomes including dialysis or doubling of serum creatinine (adjusted HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.11 to 1.78). In conclusion, in patients with vascular disease, changes in albuminuria predict mortality and cardiovascular and renal outcomes, independent of baseline albuminuria. This suggests that monitoring albuminuria is a useful strategy to help predict cardiovascular risk. PMID:21719791

  11. Viewpoint: paradoxical excess mortality in the PLATO trial should be independently verified.

    PubMed

    Serebruany, V L

    2011-05-01

    The PLATO trial revealed excess all-cause (4.5%) and vascular (4.0%) mortality after experimental pyrimidine, ticagrelor, and even higher death rates (5.9% and 5.1%, respectively) after clopidogrel, which have never been seen in any previous acute coronary syndrome (ACS) trial. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) conducted, and recently released the ticagrelor review outlining some paradoxical mortality patterns in PLATO, including the existence of alive patient, who initially was reported dead. The drug was recently approved in Europe, but repeatedly delayed in the USA. The objective of this viewpoint article was to evaluate extremely high death rates in PLATO by scrutinising FDA-released evidence, and comparing mortality patterns in recent ACS trials. These data were first presented as the analytical report submitted to the FDA on October 26, 2010. The available evidence suggest that mortality rates in PLATO, so as death benefit of ticagrelor over clopidogrel are extreme, despite incomplete follow-up, short duration of the trial, frequent preloading with clopidogrel, and gross mismatch between conventional average myocardial infarction rates but disproportionally frequent vascular fatalities, and heavily imbalanced sepsis-related deaths. In contrast to the overall PLATO results, the deaths rates in the USA were much lower (3.2% vs. 3.8%) not only favouring clopidogrel, but more importanly matching very well with identical rates in TRITON (3.2%), and one-year ACUITY (3.6%-3.9%) fatalities. Since the «play of chance» cannot explain these discrepancies due to excess death rates in both PLATO arms, and considering that study sponsor self-monitored sites in most countries, but not in the USA, the mortality data are questionable, and should be independently virified. It was concluded that excess mortality rates and delayed timing of the benefit onset in PLATO do not match with any recent ACS trial, and do not look natural. Reevaluation of the survival, especially

  12. Monocyte/high-density lipoprotein ratio predicts the mortality in ischemic stroke patients.

    PubMed

    Bolayir, Asli; Gokce, Seyda Figul; Cigdem, Burhanettin; Bolayir, Hasan Ata; Yildiz, Ozlem Kayim; Bolayir, Ertugrul; Topaktas, Suat Ahmet

    2017-08-24

    The inflammatory process is a very important stage in the development and prognosis of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). The monocyte to high-density lipoprotein (HDL) ratio (MHR) is accepted as a novel marker for demonstrating inflammation. However, the role of MHR as a predictor of mortality in patients with AIS remains unclear. We retrospectively enrolled 466 patients who were referred to our clinic within the first 24hours of symptom presentation and who were diagnosed with AIS between January 2008 and June 2016. Four hundred and eight controls of similar age and gender were also included. The patient group was classified into two groups according to 30-day mortality. The groups were compared in terms of monocyte counts, HDL, and MHR values. The patient group had significantly higher monocyte counts and lower HDL levels; therefore, this group had higher values of MHR compared to controls. Additionally, the monocyte count and MHR value were higher, and the HDL level was lower in non-surviving patients (p<0.001). The MHR value was also observed as a significant independent variable of 30-day mortality in patients with AIS (p<0.001). The optimum cut-off value of MHR in predicting the 30-day mortality for patients with AIS was 17.52 (95% CI 0.95-0.98). Our study demonstrated that a high MHR value is an independent predictor of 30-day mortality in patients with AIS. Copyright © 2017 Polish Neurological Society. Published by Elsevier Urban & Partner Sp. z o.o. All rights reserved.

  13. Predicting functional capacity during treadmill testing independent of exercise protocol.

    PubMed

    Foster, C; Crowe, A J; Daines, E; Dumit, M; Green, M A; Lettau, S; Thompson, N N; Weymier, J

    1996-06-01

    Clinically useful estimates of VO2max from treadmill tests (GXT) may be made using protocol-specific equations. In many cases, GXT may proceed more effectively if the clinician is free to adjust speed and grade independent of a specific protocol. We sought to determine whether VO2max could be predicted from the estimated steady-state VO2 of the terminal exercise stage. Seventy clinically stable individuals performed GXT with direct measurement of VO2. Exercise was incremented each minute to optimize clinical examination. Measured VO2max was compared to the estimated steady-state VO2 of the terminal stage based on ACSM equations. Equations for walking or running were used based on the patient's observed method of ambulation. The measured VO2max was always less than the ACSM estimate, with a regular relationship between measured and estimated VO2max. No handrail support: VO2max = 0.869.ACSM -0.07; R2 = 0.955, SEE = 4.8 ml.min-1.kg-1 (N = 30). With handrail support: VO2max = 0.694.ACSM + 3.33; R2 = 0.833, SEE = 4.4 ml.min-1.kg-1 (N = 40). The equations were cross-validated with 20 patients. The correlation between predicted and observed values was r = 0.98 and 0.97 without and with handrail support, respectively. The mean absolute prediction error (3.1 and 4.1 ml.min-1.kg-1) were similar to protocol-specific equations. We conclude that VO2max can be predicted independent of treadmill protocol with approximately the same error as protocol-specific equations.

  14. Sepsis mortality prediction with the Quotient Basis Kernel.

    PubMed

    Ribas Ripoll, Vicent J; Vellido, Alfredo; Romero, Enrique; Ruiz-Rodríguez, Juan Carlos

    2014-05-01

    This paper presents an algorithm to assess the risk of death in patients with sepsis. Sepsis is a common clinical syndrome in the intensive care unit (ICU) that can lead to severe sepsis, a severe state of septic shock or multi-organ failure. The proposed algorithm may be implemented as part of a clinical decision support system that can be used in combination with the scores deployed in the ICU to improve the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of mortality prediction for patients with sepsis. In this paper, we used the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) for ICU patients and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) to build our kernels and algorithms. In the proposed method, we embed the available data in a suitable feature space and use algorithms based on linear algebra, geometry and statistics for inference. We present a simplified version of the Fisher kernel (practical Fisher kernel for multinomial distributions), as well as a novel kernel that we named the Quotient Basis Kernel (QBK). These kernels are used as the basis for mortality prediction using soft-margin support vector machines. The two new kernels presented are compared against other generative kernels based on the Jensen-Shannon metric (centred, exponential and inverse) and other widely used kernels (linear, polynomial and Gaussian). Clinical relevance is also evaluated by comparing these results with logistic regression and the standard clinical prediction method based on the initial SAPS score. As described in this paper, we tested the new methods via cross-validation with a cohort of 400 test patients. The results obtained using our methods compare favourably with those obtained using alternative kernels (80.18% accuracy for the QBK) and the standard clinical prediction method, which are based on the basal SAPS score or logistic regression (71.32% and 71.55%, respectively). The QBK presented a sensitivity and specificity of 79.34% and 83.24%, which outperformed the other kernels

  15. Dengue fever mortality score: A novel decision rule to predict death from dengue fever.

    PubMed

    Huang, Chien-Cheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Guo, How-Ran; Su, Shih-Bin; Lin, Hung-Jung

    2017-09-27

    Dengue fever (DF) is still a major challenge for public health, especially during massive outbreaks. We developed a novel prediction score to help decision making, which has not been performed till date. We conducted a retrospective case-control study to recruit all the DF patients who visited a medical center during the 2015 DF outbreak. Demographic data, vital signs, symptoms/signs, chronic comorbidities, laboratory data, and 30-day mortality rates were included in the study. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to identify the independent mortality predictors, which further formed the components of a DF mortality (DFM) score. Bootstrapping method was used to validate the DFM score. In total, a sample of 2358 DF patients was included in this study, which also consisted of 34 deaths (1.44%). Five independent mortality predictors were identified: elderly age (≥65 years), hypotension (systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg), hemoptysis, diabetes mellitus, and chronic bedridden. After assigning each predictor a score of "1", we developed a DFM score (range: 0-5), which showed that the mortality risk ratios for scores 0, 1, 2, and ≥3 were 0.2%, 2.3%, 6.0%, and 45.5%, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.849 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.785-0.914), and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit was 0.642. Compared with score 0, the odds ratios for mortality were 12.73 (95% CI: 3.58-45.30) for score 1, 34.21 (95% CI: 9.75-119.99) for score 2, and 443.89 (95% CI: 86.06-2289.60) for score ≥3, with significant differences (all p values <0.001). The score ≥1 had a sensitivity of 91.2% for mortality and score ≥3 had a specificity of 99.7% for mortality. DFM score was a simple and easy method to help decision making, especially in the massive outbreak. Further studies in other hospitals or nations are warranted to validate this score. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Electrocardiographic Left Ventricular Hypertrophy Predicts Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Hypertensive Patients: The ALLHAT Study.

    PubMed

    Bang, Casper N; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Simpson, Lara M; Davis, Barry R; Devereux, Richard B; Okin, Peter M

    2017-09-01

    Electrocardiographic (ECG) left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is a strong predictor of cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality. However, the predictive value of ECG LVH in treated hypertensive patients remains unclear. A total of 33,357 patients (aged ≥ 55 years) with hypertension and at least 1 other coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factor were randomized to chlorthalidone, amlodipine, or lisinopril. The outcome of the present study was all-cause mortality; and secondary endpoints were CHD, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, angina, heart failure (HF), and peripheral arterial disease. Cornell voltage criteria (S in V3 + R in aVL > 28 [men] or >22 mm [women]) defined ECG LVH. ECGs were available at baseline in 26,384 patients. Baseline Cornell voltage LVH was present in 1,741 (7%) patients, who were older (67.4 vs. 66.6 years, P < 0.001), more likely to be female (74 vs. 44%, P < 0001) with a higher systolic blood pressure (151 vs. 146 mm Hg, P < 0.001) than patients without ECG LVH. During 5.0 ± 1.4 years mean follow-up, baseline and in-study ECG LVH was significantly associated with 29 to 98% increased risks of all-cause mortality, MI, CHD, stroke, and HF in multivariable Cox analyses. Baseline Cornell voltage LVH is associated with increased CV morbidity and all-cause mortality in treated hypertensive patients independent of treatment modality and other CV risk factors. Trial Number NCT00000542.

  17. The Feasibility of Measuring Frailty to Predict Disability and Mortality in Older Medical-ICU Survivors

    PubMed Central

    Baldwin, Matthew R.; Reid, M. Cary; Westlake, Amanda A.; Rowe, John W.; Granieri, Evelyn C.; Wunsch, Hannah; Dam, Tien; Rabinowitz, Daniel; Goldstein, Nathan E.; Maurer, Mathew S.; Lederer, David J.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To determine whether frailty can be measured within 4 days prior to hospital discharge in older ICU survivors of respiratory failure, and whether it is associated with post-discharge disability and mortality. Materials and Methods We performed a single center prospective cohort study of 22 medical-ICU survivors age ≥ 65 years old who had received non-invasive or invasive mechanical ventilation for at least 24 hours. Frailty was defined as a score of ≥ 3 using Fried’s 5-point scale. We measured disability with the Katz Activities of Daily Living. We estimated unadjusted associations between Fried’s frailty score and incident disability at 1-month and 6-month mortality using Cox proportional hazard models. Results The mean (standard deviation) age was 77 (9) years, mean APACHE II score was 27 (9.7), mean frailty score was 3.4 (1.3), and 18 (82%) were frail. Nine subjects (41%) died within 6 months, and all were frail. Each 1-point increase in frailty score was associated with a 90% increased rate of incident disability at 1-month (rate ratio: 1.9, 95% CI 0.7-4.9) and a threefold increase in 6-month mortality (rate ratio: 3.0, 95% CI 1.4-6.3). Conclusions:Frailty can be measured in older ICU survivors near hospital discharge and is associated with 6-month mortality in unadjusted analysis. Larger studies to determine if frailty independently predicts outcomes are warranted. PMID:24559575

  18. High soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 concentrations predict long-term mortality in hemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Chang, Jia-Feng; Hsu, Shih-Ping; Pai, Mei-Fen; Yang, Ju-Yeh; Chen, Hung-Yuan; Wu, Hon-Yen; Peng, Yu-Sen

    2013-12-01

    Soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1) has a strong association with cardiovascular deaths in patients with coronary artery disease. The aim of this study is to explore the association between sVCAM-1 and cardiovascular mortality in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients. Eighty-three clinically stable MHD patients (mean age of 59.4 ± 13.7 years) at a single hospital-based dialysis facility were included. sVCAM-1, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), and soluble E-selectin (sE-selectin) were determined at study baseline. The study cohort was divided into higher and lower concentration groups by the median value. The all-cause and cardiovascular mortality of this cohort were followed for 7 years. The mean concentrations of sVCAM-1, sICAM-1, and sE-selectin were 1,393.08 ± 300.96, 230.16 ± 84.86, and 60.01 ± 42.00 ng/mL, respectively. The higher concentration groups of sVCAM-1 and sICAM-1 had higher all-cause mortality by Kaplan-Meier analysis (p = 0.002 and p = 0.030, respectively). Higher sVCAM-1 concentrations had a higher risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (p = 0.006 p = 0.046, respectively) in Cox proportional hazards model analysis. In MHD patients, higher sVCAM-1 concentrations independently predict all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. This biomarker may be used as a valid surrogate marker for predicting outcomes.

  19. Validation of trauma scales: ISS, NISS, RTS and TRISS for predicting mortality in a Colombian population.

    PubMed

    Valderrama-Molina, Carlos Oliver; Giraldo, Nelson; Constain, Alfredo; Puerta, Andres; Restrepo, Camilo; León, Alba; Jaimes, Fabián

    2017-02-01

    Our purpose was to validate the performance of the ISS, NISS, RTS and TRISS scales as predictors of mortality in a population of trauma patients in a Latin American setting. Subjects older than 15 years with diagnosis of trauma, lesions in two or more body areas according to the AIS and whose initial attention was at the hospital in the first 24 h were included. The main outcome was inpatient mortality. Secondary outcomes were admission to the intensive care unit, requirement of mechanical ventilation and length of stay. A logistic regression model for hospital mortality was fitted with each of the scales as an independent variable, and its predictive accuracy was evaluated through discrimination and calibration statistics. Between January 2007 and July 2015, 4085 subjects were enrolled in the study. 84.2% (n = 3442) were male, the mean age was 36 years (SD = 16), and the most common trauma mechanism was blunt type (80.1%; n = 3273). The medians of ISS, NISS, TRISS and RTS were: 14 (IQR = 10-21), 17 (IQR = 11-27), 4.21 (IQR = 2.95-5.05) and 7.84 (IQR = 6.90-7.84), respectively. Mortality was 9.3%, and the discrimination for ISS, NISS, TRISS and RTS was: AUC 0.85, 0.89, 0.86 and 0.92, respectively. No one scale had appropriate calibration. Determining the severity of trauma is an essential tool to guide treatment and establish the necessary resources for attention. In a Colombian population from a capital city, trauma scales have adequate performance for the prediction of mortality in patients with trauma.

  20. Speckle tracking echocardiography detects uremic cardiomyopathy early and predicts cardiovascular mortality in ESRD.

    PubMed

    Kramann, Rafael; Erpenbeck, Johanna; Schneider, Rebekka K; Röhl, Anna B; Hein, Marc; Brandenburg, Vincent M; van Diepen, Merel; Dekker, Friedo; Marx, Nicolaus; Floege, Jürgen; Becker, Michael; Schlieper, Georg

    2014-10-01

    Cardiovascular mortality is high in ESRD, partly driven by sudden cardiac death and recurrent heart failure due to uremic cardiomyopathy. We investigated whether speckle-tracking echocardiography is superior to routine echocardiography in early detection of uremic cardiomyopathy in animal models and whether it predicts cardiovascular mortality in patients undergoing dialysis. Using speckle-tracking echocardiography in two rat models of uremic cardiomyopathy soon (4-6 weeks) after induction of kidney disease, we observed that global radial and circumferential strain parameters decreased significantly in both models compared with controls, whereas standard echocardiographic readouts, including fractional shortening and cardiac output, remained unchanged. Furthermore, strain parameters showed better correlations with histologic hallmarks of uremic cardiomyopathy. We then assessed echocardiographic and clinical characteristics in 171 dialysis patients. During the 2.5-year follow-up period, ejection fraction and various strain parameters were significant risk factors for cardiovascular mortality (primary end point) in a multivariate Cox model (ejection fraction hazard ratio [HR], 0.97 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.95 to 0.99; P=0.012]; peak global longitudinal strain HR, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.07 to 1.28; P<0.001]; peak systolic and late diastolic longitudinal strain rates HRs, 4.7 [95% CI, 1.23 to 17.64; P=0.023] and 0.25 [95% CI, 0.08 to 0.79; P=0.02], respectively). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed circumferential early diastolic strain rate, among others, as an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality (secondary end point; HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.74; P=0.002). Together, these data support speckle tracking as a postprocessing echocardiographic technique to detect uremic cardiomyopathy and predict cardiovascular mortality in ESRD.

  1. Posthepatectomy portal vein pressure predicts liver failure and mortality after major liver resection on noncirrhotic liver.

    PubMed

    Allard, Marc-Antoine; Adam, René; Bucur, Pétru-Octav; Termos, Salah; Cunha, Antonio Sa; Bismuth, Henri; Castaing, Denis; Vibert, Eric

    2013-11-01

    To evaluate the predictive value of portal vein pressure (PVP) after major liver resection for posthepatectomy liver failure (PLF) and 90-day mortality in patients without cirrhosis. As elevated PVP is associated with liver failure after living donor liver transplantation, we hypothesized that the outcome after major hepatectomy may be influenced by posthepatectomy PVP. All patients without severe fibrosis or cirrhosis who underwent a major liver resection (≥3 segments) with an intraoperative measurement of PVP at the end of the procedure were included. Outcome was analyzed regarding 3 most widely used definitions of PLF: "50-50" criteria, peak of serum bilirubin greater than 120 μmol/L, and grade C PLF proposed by the International Study Group of Liver Surgery (ISGLS). Receiver operating characteristic curves and logistic regression model were used to determine the optimal cutoff of PVP and independent risk factors of PLF. The study population consisted of 277 patients. Posthepatectomy PVP was gradually correlated with the PLF risk. Probability for PLF was nil when PVP was 10 mm Hg or less, ranges from 13% to 16%, depending on PLF definitions, when PVP was 20 mm Hg, and from 24% to 33% when PVP was 30 mm Hg. The optimal value of posthepatectomy PVP to predict PLF was 22 mm Hg when considering the "50-50" criteria and grade C PLF (proposed by the International Study Group of Liver Surgery). A value of 21 mm Hg best predicted PLF defined by peak of serum bilirubin greater than 120 μmol/L and 90-day mortality. At multivariate analysis, posthepatectomy PVP remained an independent predictor of PLF as well as the extent of resection, intraoperative transfusion, and the presence of diabetes. The 90-day mortality was associated with PVP greater than 21 mm Hg, older than 70 years, and intraoperative transfusion. Posthepatectomy PVP is an independent predictive factor of PLF and of 90-day mortality after major liver resection in patients without cirrhosis

  2. More than clean air and tranquillity: Residential green is independently associated with decreasing mortality.

    PubMed

    Vienneau, Danielle; de Hoogh, Kees; Faeh, David; Kaufmann, Marco; Wunderli, Jean Marc; Röösli, Martin

    2017-11-01

    Green space may improve health by enabling physical activity and recovery from stress or by decreased pollution levels. We investigated the association between residential green (greenness or green space) and mortality in adults using the Swiss National Cohort (SNC) by mutually considering air pollution and transportation noise exposure. To reflect residential green at the address level, two different metrics were derived: normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) for greenness, and high resolution land use classification data to identify green spaces (LU-green). We used stratified Cox proportional hazard models (stratified by sex) to study the association between exposure and all natural cause mortality, respiratory and cardiovascular disease (CVD), including ischemic heart disease, stroke and hypertension related mortality. Models were adjusted for civil status, job position, education, neighbourhood socio-economic position (SEP), geographic region, area type, altitude, air pollution (PM10), and transportation noise. From the nation-wide SNC, 4.2 million adults were included providing 7.8years of follow-up and respectively 363,553, 85,314 and 232,322 natural cause, respiratory and CVD deaths. Hazard ratios (and 95%-confidence intervals) for NDVI [and LU-green] per interquartile range within 500m of residence were highly comparable: 0.94 (0.93-0.95) [0.94 (0.93-0.95)] for natural causes; 0.92 (0.91-0.94) [0.92 (0.90-0.95)] for respiratory; and 0.95 (0.94-0.96) [0.96 (0.95-0.98)] for CVD mortality. Protective effects were stronger in younger individuals and in women and, for most outcomes, in urban (vs. rural) and in the highest (vs. lowest) SEP quartile. Estimates remained virtually unchanged after incremental adjustment for air pollution and transportation noise, and mediation by these environmental factors was found to be small. We found consistent evidence that residential green reduced the risk of mortality independently from other environmental exposures

  3. The John Insall Award: Morbid obesity independently impacts complications, mortality, and resource use after TKA.

    PubMed

    D'Apuzzo, Michele R; Novicoff, Wendy M; Browne, James A

    2015-01-01

    The importance of morbid obesity as a risk factor for complications after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) continues to be debated. Obesity is rarely an isolated diagnosis and tends to cluster with other comorbidities that may independently lead to increased risk and confound outcomes. It is unknown whether morbid obesity independently affects postoperative complications and resource use after TKA. The purpose of this study was to determine whether morbid obesity is an independent risk factor for inpatient postoperative complications, mortality, and increased resource use in patients undergoing primary TKA. The Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database was used to identify patients undergoing primary TKA from October 2005 to December 2008. Morbid obesity (body mass index≥40 kg/m2) was determined using International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes. In-hospital postoperative complications, mortality, costs, and disposition for morbidly obese patients were compared with nonobese patients. To control for potential confounders and comorbid conditions, each morbidly obese patient was matched to a nonobese patient using age, sex, and all 28 comorbid-defined elements in the NIS database based on the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index. Of 1,777,068 primary TKAs, 98,410 (5.5%) patients were categorized as morbidly obese. Of these, 90,045 patients (91%) were able to be matched one-to-one to a nonobese patient for the adjusted analysis. Morbidly obese patients had a higher risk of postoperative in-hospital infection (0.24% versus 0.17%; odds ratio [OR], 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-1.7; p=0.001), wound dehiscence (0.11% versus 0.08%; OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.7; p=0.28), and genitourinary-related complications (0.60% versus 0.44%; OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5; p<0.001). There was no increase in the prevalence of cardiovascular or thromboembolic-related complications. Morbidly obese patients were at

  4. Early warning score predicts acute mortality in stroke patients.

    PubMed

    Liljehult, J; Christensen, T

    2016-04-01

    Clinical deterioration and death among patients with acute stroke are often preceded by detrimental changes in physiological parameters. Systematic and effective tools to identify patients at risk of deterioration early enough to intervene are therefore needed. The aim of the study was to investigate whether the aggregate weighted track and trigger system early warning score (EWS) can be used as a simple observational tool to identify patients at risk and predict mortality in a population of patients with acute stroke. Patients admitted with acute stroke at the Copenhagen University Hospital, Nordsjaellands Hospital, Denmark, from May to September 2012 were enrolled in a retrospective cohort study (n = 274). Vital signs were measured immediately after admission and consistently during the hospitalization period. Based on the vital signs, a single composite EWS was calculated. Death within 30 days was used as outcome. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) and a Kaplan-Meier curve were computed to examine the prognostic validity of EWS. A total of 24 patients (8.8%) died within 30 days. The prognostic performance was high for both the EWS at admission (AUROC 0.856; 95% CI 0.760-0.951; P-value < 0.001) and the maximal EWS measured (AUROC 0.949; 95% CI 0.919-0.980; P-value < 0.001). Mortality rates were lowest for admission EWS 0-1 (2%) and highest for admission EWS ≥ 5 (63%). Early warning score is a simple and valid tool for identifying patients at risk of dying after acute stroke. Readily available physiological parameters are converted to a single score, which can guide both nurses and physicians in clinical decision making and resource allocation. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Risk of Malnutrition Is an Independent Predictor of Mortality, Length of Hospital Stay, and Hospitalization Costs in Stroke Patients.

    PubMed

    Gomes, Filomena; Emery, Peter W; Weekes, C Elizabeth

    2016-04-01

    Malnutrition is associated with poor outcomes after stroke. Nutrition screening tools (NSTs) are used to identify patients at risk of malnutrition, but so far no NST has been validated for use with patients who have had a stroke. This study aimed to determine the ability of the Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) to predict poor outcomes in stroke patients, including mortality, cumulative length of hospital stay (LOS), and hospitalization costs. Patients were recruited from consecutive admissions at 2 hyperacute stroke units in London and were screened for risk of malnutrition (low, medium, and high) according to MUST. Six-month outcomes were obtained for each patient through a national database. Of 543 recruited patients, 51% were males, the mean age was 75 years, and 87% had an ischemic stroke. Results showed a highly significant increase in mortality with increasing risk of malnutrition (P < .001). This association remained significant after adjusting for age, severity of stroke, and a range of stroke risk factors (P < .001). For those patients who survived, the LOS and hospitalization costs increased with increasing risk of malnutrition (P < .001 and P = .049, respectively). This association remained significant in the adjusted model (P < .001 and P = .001, respectively). Risk of malnutrition is an independent predictor of mortality, LOS, and hospitalization costs at 6 months post stroke. Research is needed to determine if nutritional support for medium- or high-risk patients results in better outcomes. Routine screening of stroke patients for risk of malnutrition is recommended. Copyright © 2016 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Does personality predict mortality? Results from the GAZEL French prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Nabi, Hermann; Kivimäki, Mika; Zins, Marie; Elovainio, Marko; Consoli, Silla M.; Cordier, Sylvaine; Ducimetière, Pierre; Goldberg, Marcel; Singh-Manoux, Archana

    2008-01-01

    Background Majority of studies on personality and physical health have focused on one or two isolated personality traits. We aim to test the independent association of 10 personality traits, from three major conceptual models, with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the French GAZEL cohort. Methods A total of 14,445 participants, aged 39–54 in 1993, completed the personality questionnaires composed of the Bortner Type-A scale, the Buss-Durkee-Hostility-Inventory (for total, neurotic and reactive hostility), and the Grossarth-Maticek-Eysenck-Personality- Stress-Inventory that assesses six personality types (cancer-prone, coronary heart disease (CHD)-prone, ambivalent, healthy, rational, anti-social). The association between personality traits and mortality, during a mean follow-up of 12.7 years, was assessed using the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) in Cox regression. Results In models adjusted for age, sex, marital status and education, all-cause and causespecific mortality were predicted by “total hostility”, its “neurotic hostility” component as well as by “CHD-prone”, “ambivalent” “antisocial”, and “healthy” personality types. After mutually adjusting personality traits for each other, only high “neurotic hostility” remained a robust predictor of excess mortality from all causes (RII=2.62; 95% CI=1.68–4.09) and external causes (RII=3.24; 95% CI=1.03–10.18). “CHD-prone” (RII=2.23; 95% CI=0.72– 6.95) and “anti-social” (RII=2.13; 95% CI 0.61–6.58) personality types were associated with cardiovascular mortality and with mortality from external causes, respectively, but confidence intervals were wider. Adjustment for potential behavioural mediators had only a modest effect on these associations. Conclusions Neurotic hostility, CHD-prone personality and antisocial personality were all predictive of mortality outcomes. Further research is required to determine the precise mechanisms that contribute to these

  7. The effects of deep network topology on mortality prediction.

    PubMed

    Hao Du; Ghassemi, Mohammad M; Mengling Feng

    2016-08-01

    Deep learning has achieved remarkable results in the areas of computer vision, speech recognition, natural language processing and most recently, even playing Go. The application of deep-learning to problems in healthcare, however, has gained attention only in recent years, and it's ultimate place at the bedside remains a topic of skeptical discussion. While there is a growing academic interest in the application of Machine Learning (ML) techniques to clinical problems, many in the clinical community see little incentive to upgrade from simpler methods, such as logistic regression, to deep learning. Logistic regression, after all, provides odds ratios, p-values and confidence intervals that allow for ease of interpretation, while deep nets are often seen as `black-boxes' which are difficult to understand and, as of yet, have not demonstrated performance levels far exceeding their simpler counterparts. If deep learning is to ever take a place at the bedside, it will require studies which (1) showcase the performance of deep-learning methods relative to other approaches and (2) interpret the relationships between network structure, model performance, features and outcomes. We have chosen these two requirements as the goal of this study. In our investigation, we utilized a publicly available EMR dataset of over 32,000 intensive care unit patients and trained a Deep Belief Network (DBN) to predict patient mortality at discharge. Utilizing an evolutionary algorithm, we demonstrate automated topology selection for DBNs. We demonstrate that with the correct topology selection, DBNs can achieve better prediction performance compared to several bench-marking methods.

  8. The predictive value of malnutrition - inflammation score on 1-year mortality in Turkish maintenance hemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Kara, Ekrem; Sahutoglu, Tuncay; Ahbap, Elbis; Sakaci, Tamer; Koc, Yener; Basturk, Taner; Sevinc, Mustafa; Akgol, Cuneyt; Unsal, Abdulkadir

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of malnutrition-inflammation score (MIS) on short-term mortality and to identify the best cut-off point in the Turkish maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) population. A total of 100 patients on MHD were included in this prospective single-center study. Demographic, anthropometric, and biochemical data were obtained from all patients. The study population was followed up as a 12-month prospective cohort to evaluate mortality as the primary outcome. Median (IQR) age and HD vintage of 100 patients (M/F: 52/48) were 53 (39.5 - 67) years and 53.5 (11 - 104.7) months, respectively. Deceased patients (n = 7) had significantly older age (years) (50 (38.5 - 63.5) vs. 70 (62 - 82), respectively, p = 0.001), lower spKt/V (1.60 (1.40 - 1.79) vs. 1.35 (0.90 - 1.50), respectively, p = 0.002), lower triceps skinfold thickness (14 (10 - 19) vs. 9 (7 - 11), respectively, p = 0.021) and higher MIS (5 (4 - 7) vs. 10 (7 - 11), respectively, p = 0.013). In the ROC analysis, we found that the optimal cut-off value of MIS for predicting death was 6.5 with 85.7% sensitivity and 62.4% specificity (positive and negative predictive values were 0.6951 and 0.8136, respectively). Advanced age, low spKt/V, and high MIS were found to be predictors of mortality in multivariate logistic regression analysis. The 1-year mortality rate was significantly higher in MIS > 6.5 group compared to the MIS ≤ 6.5 group (14,3% (6/41) vs. 1.6% (1/59), respectively). Compared to MIS ≤ 6.5 group, 1 year survival time of the patients with MIS > 6.5 was found to be significantly lower (47.8 ± 0.16 vs. 43.6 ± 1.63 weeks, respectively, p (log-rank) = 0.012). MIS is a robust and independent predictor of short-term mortality in MHD patients. Patients with MIS > 6.5 had a significant risk, and additional risk factors associated with short-term mortality were advanced age and low spKt/V.

  9. Pulse pressure can predict mortality in advanced heart failure.

    PubMed

    Ferreira, Ana Rita; Mendes, Sofia; Leite, Luís; Monteiro, Sílvia; Pego, Mariano

    2016-04-01

    Pulse pressure (PP) is the difference between systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP). PP rises markedly after the fifth decade of life. High PP is a risk factor for the development of coronary heart disease and heart failure. The aim of this study was to assess whether PP can be used as a prognostic marker in advanced heart failure. We retrospectively studied patients in NYHA class III-IV who were hospitalized in a single heart failure unit between January 2003 and August 2012. Demographic characteristics, laboratory tests, and cardiovascular risk factors were recorded. PP was calculated as the difference between systolic and diastolic BP at admission, and the patients were divided into two groups (group 1: PP >40 mmHg and group 2: PP ≤40 mmHg). Median follow-up was 666 ± 50 days for the occurrence of cardiovascular death and heart transplantation. During follow-up 914 patients in NYHA class III-IV were hospitalized, 520 in group 1 and 394 in group 2. The most important difference between the groups was in left ventricular dysfunction, which was greater in patients with lower PP. On Kaplan-Meier analysis, group 2 had higher mortality (38 vs. 24 patients, log-rank p=0.002). PP is easily calculated, and enables prediction of cardiovascular death in patients with advanced heart failure. Copyright © 2016 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  10. Predicting hospitalization and mortality in patients with heart failure: The BARDICHE-index.

    PubMed

    Uszko-Lencer, Nicole H M K; Frankenstein, Lutz; Spruit, Martijn A; Maeder, Micha T; Gutmann, Marc; Muzzarelli, Stefano; Osswald, Stefan; Pfisterer, Matthias E; Zugck, Christian; Brunner-La Rocca, Hans-Peter

    2017-01-15

    Prediction of events in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients is still difficult and available scores are often complex to calculate. Therefore, we developed and validated a simple-to-use, multidimensional prognostic index for such patients. A theoretical model was developed based on known prognostic factors of CHF that are easily obtainable: Body mass index (B), Age (A), Resting systolic blood pressure (R), Dyspnea (D), N-termInal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) (I), Cockroft-Gault equation to estimate glomerular filtration rate (C), resting Heart rate (H), and Exercise performance using the 6-min walk test (E) (the BARDICHE-index). Scores were given for all components and added, the sum ranging from 1 (lowest value) to 25 points (maximal value), with estimated risk being highest in patients with highest scores. Scores were categorized into three groups: a low (≤8 points); medium (9-16 points), or high (>16 points) BARDICHE-score. The model was validated in a data set of 1811 patients from two prospective CHF-cohorts (median follow-up 887days). The primary outcome was 5-year all-cause survival. Secondary outcomes were 5-year survival without all-cause hospitalization and 5-year survival without CHF-related hospitalization. There were significant differences between BARDICHE-risk groups for mortality (hazard ratio=3.63 per BARDICHE-group, 95%-CI 3.10-4.25), mortality or all-cause hospitalization (HR=2.00 per BARDICHE-group, 95%-CI 1.83-2.19), and mortality or CHF-related hospitalization (HR=3.43 per BARDICHE-group, 95%-CI 3.01-3.92; all P<10-50). Outcome was predicted independently of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and gender. The BARDICHE-index is a simple multidimensional prognostic tool for patients with CHF, independently of LVEF. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Can photoperiod predict mortality in the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic?

    PubMed

    Prendergast, Brian J

    2011-08-01

    Amplitude of the seasonal change in day length increases with distance from the equator, and changes in day length markedly alter immune function in diverse nonhuman animal models of infection. Historical records of mortality data, ambient temperature, population density, geography, and economic indicators from 42 countries during 1918-1920 were analyzed to determine relative contributions toward human mortality during the "Spanish" influenza pandemic of 1918-1920. The data identify a strong negative relation between distance from the equator and mortality during the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic, which, in a multiple regression model, manifested independent of major economic, demographic, and temperature variables. Enhanced survival was evident in populations that experienced a winter nadir day length ≤10 h light/day, relative to those that experienced lower amplitude changes in photoperiod. Numerous reports indicate that exposure to short day lengths, typical of those occurring outside the tropics during winter, yields robust and enduring reductions in the magnitude of cytokine, febrile, and behavioral responses to infection. The present results are preliminary but prompt the conjecture that, if similar mechanisms are operant in humans, then they would be predicted to mitigate symptoms of infection in proportion to an individual's distance from the equator. Although limitations and uncertainties accompany regression-based analyses of historical epidemiological data, latitude, per se, may be an underrecognized factor in mortality during the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic. The author proposes that some proportion of the global variance in morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases may be explained by effects of day length on the innate immune response to infection.

  12. The Change in Body Weight During Hospitalization Predicts Mortality in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Komaki, Tomo; Miura, Shin-ichiro; Arimura, Tadaaki; Shiga, Yuhei; Morii, Joji; Kuwano, Takashi; Imaizumi, Satoshi; Kitajima, Ken; Iwata, Atsushi; Morito, Natsumi; Yahiro, Eiji; Fujimi, Kanta; Matsunaga, Akira; Saku, Keijiro

    2017-01-01

    Background In our experience, the change in body weight (BW) during hospitalization varies greatly in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (HF). Since the clinical significance of a change in BW is not clear, we investigated whether a change in BW could predict mortality. Methods We retrospectively enrolled 130 patients (72 males; aged 68 ± 10 years) who were hospitalized due to acute decompensated HF and followed for 2 years after discharge. The change in the BW index during hospitalization (ΔBWI) was calculated as (BW at hospital admission minus BW at hospital discharge)/body surface area at hospital discharge. Results The patients were divided into quartiles according to ΔBWI, and the 2-year mortality rates in the quartiles with the lowest, second, third and highest ΔBWI were 18.8%, 12.1%, 3.1% and 9.1%, respectively. In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis after adjusting for variables with a P value less than 0.05, ΔBWI was independently associated with 2-year mortality (P = 0.0002), and the quartile with the lowest ΔBWI had a higher relative risk (RR) for 2-year mortality than the quartile with the highest ΔBWI (RR: 7.46, 95% confidence interval: 1.03 - 53.99, P = 0.04). Conclusion In conclusion, ΔBWI was significantly associated with 2-year mortality after discharge, which indicates that ΔBWI might be a simple predictor of prognosis in acute decompensated HF. PMID:28179967

  13. Additive value of the CRUSADE score to the GRACE score for mortality risk prediction in patients with acute coronary syndromes.

    PubMed

    Cordero, Alberto; Rodriguez-Manero, Moisés; García-Acuña, Jose M; López-Palop, Ramón; Cid, Belen; Carrillo, Pilar; Agra-Bermejo, Rosa; González-Salvado, Violeta; Iglesias-Alvarez, Diego; Bertomeu-Martínez, Vicente; González-Juanatey, Jose R

    2017-10-15

    Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) treatments increase bleeding complications that also impair prognosis. Bleeding risk scores reclassification of actual mortality risk estimated by the GRACE score might improve overall estimation. Observational and prospective study of all ACS patients admitted in two hospitals. Mortality risk was assessed by the GRACE score and bleeding risk by the CRUSADE score. We analyzed the net reclassification improvement (NRI) of adding the CRUSADE score to the GRACE score. We included 6997 patients, mean age 67.4 (12.9), 38.0% ST-elevation ACS, mean GRACE score 145.2 (39.9). The percentage of patients with CRUSADE score >20 or >50 increased as the GRACE score was higher. Hospital mortality was 5.3% and the addition of the CRUSADE score reclassified a relevant percentage of patients with GRACE score >109; NRI was 3.80% (1.10-6.10). During follow-up, (median 53.0months) mortality rate was 22.6% and patients with CRUSADE score >50 had significantly higher mortality rates in all GRACE score categories; NRI was high (46.6%, 95% CI 41.0-53.1). The multivariate analysis outlined the independent predictive value of CRUSADE score >20 or >50 as well as GRACE scores 109-139 and >140. The addition of the CRUSADE score to the GRACE score improved mortality risk estimation. A CRUSADE score >50 identified patients with higher post-discharge mortality and higher hospital mortality if GRACE score was >109. The CRUSADE score improved hospital and long-term mortality prediction in patients with GRACE score >140. Individual mortality risk estimation should integrate the CRUSADE and GRACE scores. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. The Aristotle score predicts mortality after surgery of patent ductus arteriosus in preterm infants.

    PubMed

    Chang, Yun Hee; Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Jeong Eun; Kim, Ji-yong; Youn, YoungAh; Lee, Eun-Jung; Moon, Sena; Lee, Ju Young; Sung, In Kyung

    2013-09-01

    Outcomes after surgical ligation of patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) in preterm infants are often complicated by prematurity associated comorbidities. The Aristotle comprehensive complexity score (ACCS) has been proposed as a useful tool for complexity adjustment in the analysis of outcome after congenital heart surgery. The aims of this study were to define preoperative risk factors for mortality and to demonstrate the usefulness of ACCS to predict mortality after surgical ligation of PDA in the preterm. Included were 49 preterm babies (≤35 weeks of gestation) who had surgical ligation of PDA between May 2009 and July 2012. Median gestational age was 27.6 weeks (range, 23 to 35 weeks) and median birth weight was 1,040 g (range, 520 to 2,280 g). Median age at operation was 15 days (range, 4 to 44 days) and median weight was 1,120 g (range, 400 to 2,880 g). Initial oral ibuprofen was ineffective in 24 patients and contraindicated in 25. All surgical ligations were done at bedside in the neonatal intensive care unit. Preoperative clinical and laboratory profiles were reviewed and ACCS was derived. Eight of 49 patients (16.3%) died at a median of 14 days (range, 2 to 73 days) after PDA ligation. Patients who had contraindications for oral ibuprofen (odds ratio [OR] 8.94; p=0.049), coagulopathy (OR 12.13; p=0.025), renal dysfunction (OR 28.88; p=0.003), intraventricular hemorrhage greater than grade II or seizure (OR 34.00; p=0.002), and ACCS points (OR 29.594; p<0.05) were significantly associated with an increased risk for mortality. Among the risk factors, ACCS showed the largest area under curve (0.991) by receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. Optimal cutoff value of ACCS for mortality were 15 or greater, with sensitivity of 87.5%, specificity of 100%, positive predictive value of 100%, and negative predictive value of 97.6%. The ACCS, especially for procedure-independent complexity factors, is a useful tool to predict mortality after ligation of PDA in

  15. The development of an automated ward independent delirium risk prediction model.

    PubMed

    de Wit, Hugo A J M; Winkens, Bjorn; Mestres Gonzalvo, Carlota; Hurkens, Kim P G M; Mulder, Wubbo J; Janknegt, Rob; Verhey, Frans R; van der Kuy, Paul-Hugo M; Schols, Jos M G A

    2016-08-01

    Background A delirium is common in hospital settings resulting in increased mortality and costs. Prevention of a delirium is clearly preferred over treatment. A delirium risk prediction model can be helpful to identify patients at risk of a delirium, allowing the start of preventive treatment. Current risk prediction models rely on manual calculation of the individual patient risk. Objective The aim of this study was to develop an automated ward independent delirium riskprediction model. To show that such a model can be constructed exclusively from electronically available risk factors and thereby implemented into a clinical decision support system (CDSS) to optimally support the physician to initiate preventive treatment. Setting A Dutch teaching hospital. Methods A retrospective cohort study in which patients, 60 years or older, were selected when admitted to the hospital, with no delirium diagnosis when presenting, or during the first day of admission. We used logistic regression analysis to develop a delirium predictive model out of the electronically available predictive variables. Main outcome measure A delirium risk prediction model. Results A delirium risk prediction model was developed using predictive variables that were significant in the univariable regression analyses. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the "medication model" model was 0.76 after internal validation. Conclusions CDSSs can be used to automatically predict the risk of a delirium in individual hospitalised patients' by exclusively using electronically available predictive variables. To increase the use and improve the quality of predictive models, clinical risk factors should be documented ready for automated use.

  16. Predictive Factors for Good Outcome and Mortality After Stent-Retriever Thrombectomy in Patients With Acute Anterior Circulation Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Yoon, Woong; Kim, Seul Kee; Park, Man Seok; Baek, Byung Hyun; Lee, Yun Young

    2017-01-01

    Background and Purpose Predictive factors associated with stent-retriever thrombectomy for patients with acute anterior circulation stroke remain to be elucidated. This study aimed to investigate clinical and procedural factors predictive of good outcome and mortality after stent-retriever thrombectomy in a large cohort of patients with acute anterior circulation stroke. Methods We analyzed clinical and procedural data in 335 patients with acute anterior circulation stroke treated with stent-retriever thrombectomy. A good outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale score of 0 to 2 at 3 months. The associations between clinical, imaging, and procedural factors and good outcome and mortality, respectively, were evaluated using logistic regression analysis. Results Using multivariate analysis, age (odds ratio [OR], 0.965; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.944-0.986; P=0.001), successful revascularization (OR, 4.658; 95% CI, 2.240-9.689; P<0.001), parenchymal hemorrhage (OR, 0.150; 95% CI, 0.049-0.460; P=0.001), and baseline NIHSS score (OR, 0.908; 95% CI, 0.855-0.965; P=0.002) were independent predictors of good outcome. Independent predictors of mortality were age (OR, 1.043; 95% CI, 1.002-1.086; P=0.041), successful revascularization (OR, 0.171; 95% CI, 0.079-0.370; P<0.001), parenchymal hemorrhage (OR, 2.961; 95% CI, 1.059-8.276; P=0.038), and a history of previous stroke/TIA (OR, 3.124; 95% CI, 1.340-7.281; P=0.008). Conclusions Age, revascularization status, and parenchymal hemorrhage are independent predictors of both good outcome and mortality after stent retriever thrombectomy for acute anterior circulation stroke. In addition, NIHSS score on admission is independently associated with good outcome, whereas a history of previous stroke is independently associated with mortality. PMID:28178407

  17. Aneurysm sac expansion is independently associated with late mortality in patients treated with endovascular aneurysm repair.

    PubMed

    Deery, Sarah E; Ergul, Emel A; Schermerhorn, Marc L; Siracuse, Jeffrey J; Schanzer, Andres; Goodney, Philip P; Cambria, Richard P; Patel, Virendra I

    2017-08-30

    Patients undergoing endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) for abdominal aortic aneurysms can exhibit variations in sac behavior ranging from complete regression to expansion. We evaluated the impact of sac behavior at 1-year follow-up on late survival. We used the Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) registry from 2003 to 2011 to identify EVAR patients with 1-year computed tomography follow-up. Aneurysm sac enlargement ≥5 mm (sac expansion) and decrease ≥5 mm (sac regression) were defined per Society for Vascular Surgery guidelines. Predictors of change in sac diameter and impact of sac behavior on long-term mortality were assessed by multivariable methods. Of 2437 patients who underwent EVAR, 1802 (74%) had complete 1-year follow-up data and were included in the study. At 1 year, 162 (9%) experienced sac expansion, 709 (39%) had a stable sac, and 931 (52%) experienced sac regression. Sac expansion was associated with preoperative renal insufficiency (odds ratio [OR], 3.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-8.0; P < .01), urgent repair (OR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.4-5.1; P < .01), hypogastric coverage (OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.7; P = .02), and type I/III (OR, 16.8; 95% CI, 7.3-39.0; P < .001) or type II (OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 2.0-4.3; P < .001) endoleak at follow-up, and sac expansion was inversely associated with smoking (OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4-0.96; P = .03) and baseline aneurysm diameter (OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.6-0.9; P < .001). Sac regression (vs expansion or stable sac) was associated with female gender (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.4-2.4; P < .001) and larger baseline aneurysm diameter (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.5; P < .001) and inversely associated with type I/III (OR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.1-0.5; P < .01) or type II endoleak at follow-up (OR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.2-0.3; P < .001). After risk-adjusted Cox regression, sac expansion was independently associated with late mortality (hazard ratio, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.0; P = .01), even with adjustment for reinterventions and endoleak during

  18. Pyogenic liver abscess: current status and predictive factors for recurrence and mortality of first episodes.

    PubMed

    Czerwonko, Matías E; Huespe, Pablo; Bertone, Santiago; Pellegrini, Pablo; Mazza, Oscar; Pekolj, Juan; de Santibañes, Eduardo; Hyon, Sung Ho; de Santibañes, Martín

    2016-12-01

    In times of modern surgery, transplantation and percutaneous techniques, pyogenic liver abscess (PLA) has essentially become a problem of biliary or iatrogenic origin. In the current scenario, diagnostic approach, clinical behavior and therapeutic outcomes have not been profoundly studied. This study analyzes the clinical and microbiological features, diagnostic methods, therapeutic management and predictive factors for recurrence and mortality of first episodes of PLA. A retrospective single-center study was conducted including 142 patients admitted to the Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires, between 2005 and 2015 with first episodes of PLA. Prevailing identifiable causes were biliary diseases (47.9%) followed by non-biliary percutaneous procedures (NBIPLA, 15.5%). Seventeen patients (12%) were liver recipients. Eleven patients (7.8%) died and 18 patients (13.7%) had recurrence in the first year of follow up. The isolation of multiresistant organisms (p = 0.041) and a history of cholangitis (p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for recurrence. Mortality was associated with serum bilirubin >5 mg/dL (p = 0.022) and bilateral involvement (p = 0.014) in the multivariate analysis. NBPLA and PLA after transplantation may be increasing among the population of PLA in referral centers. History of cholangitis is a strong predictor for recurrence. Mortality is associated to hiperbilirrubinemia and anatomical distribution of the lesions. Copyright © 2016 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage: predictive factors of in-hospital mortality in patients treated in the medical intensive care unit.

    PubMed

    Skok, P; Sinkovič, A

    2011-01-01

    This prospective, cohort study assessed the independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage admitted to the medical intensive care unit (MICU) at the University Clinical Centre Maribor, Slovenia. Using univariate, multivariate and logistic regression methods the predictors of mortality in 54 upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage patients (47 men, mean ± SD age 61.6 ± 14.2 years) were investigated. The mean ± SD duration of treatment in the MICU was 2.8 ± 2.9 days and the mortality rate was 31.5%. Significant differences between nonsurvivors and survivors were observed in haemorrhagic shock, heart failure, infection, diastolic blood pressure at admission, haemoglobin and red blood cell count at admission, and lowest haemoglobin and red blood cell count during treatment. Heart failure (odds ratio 59.13) was the most significant independent predictor of in-hospital mortality. Haemorrhagic shock and the lowest red blood cell count during treatment were also important independent predictive factors of in-hospital mortality.

  20. Is intraindividual reaction time variability an independent cognitive predictor of mortality in old age? Findings from the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study

    PubMed Central

    Bunce, David; Pont, Sarah; Crawford, John D.; Brodaty, Henry; Sachdev, Perminder S.

    2017-01-01

    Intraindividual variability of reaction time (IIVRT), a proposed cognitive marker of neurobiological disturbance, increases in old age, and has been associated with dementia and mortality. The extent to which IIVRT is an independent predictor of mortality, however, is unclear. This study investigated the association of IIVRT and all-cause mortality while accounting for cognitive level, incident dementia and biomedical risk factors in 861 participants aged 70–90 from the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study. Participants completed two computerised reaction time (RT) tasks (76 trials in total) at baseline, and comprehensive medical and neuropsychological assessments every 2 years. Composite RT measures were derived from the two tasks—the mean RT and the IIVRT measure computed from the intraindividual standard deviation of the RTs (with age and time-on-task effects partialled out). Consensus dementia diagnoses were made by an expert panel of clinicians using clinical criteria, and mortality data were obtained from a state registry. Cox proportional hazards models estimated the association of IIVRT and mean RT with survival time over 8 years during which 191 (22.2%) participants died. Greater IIVRT but not mean RT significantly predicted survival time after adjusting for age, sex, global cognition score, cardiovascular risk index and apolipoprotein ɛ4 status. After excluding incident dementia cases, the association of IIVRT with mortality changed very little. Our findings suggest that greater IIVRT uniquely predicts shorter time to death and that lower global cognition and prodromal dementia in older individuals do not explain this relationship. PMID:28792946

  1. Red blood cell distribution width is an independent predictor of mortality in patients with gram-negative bacteremia.

    PubMed

    Ku, Nam Su; Kim, Hye-Won; Oh, Hyung Jung; Kim, Yong Chan; Kim, Min Hyung; Song, Je Eun; Oh, Dong Hyun; Ahn, Jin Young; Kim, Sun Bean; Jeong, Su Jin; Han, Sang Hoon; Kim, Chang Oh; Song, Young Goo; Kim, June Myung; Choi, Jun Yong

    2012-08-01

    Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is known to be a predictor of severe morbidity and mortality in some chronic diseases such as congestive heart failure. However, to our knowledge, little is known about RDW as a predictor of mortality in patients with Gram-negative bacteremia, a major nosocomial cause of intra-abdominal infections, urinary tract infections, and primary bacteremia. Therefore, we investigated whether RDW is an independent predictor of mortality in patients with Gram-negative bacteremia. Clinical characteristics, laboratory parameters, and outcomes of 161 patients with Gram-negative bacteremia from November 2010 to March 2011 diagnosed at Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea, were retrospectively analyzed. The main outcome measure was 28-day all-cause mortality. The 28-day mortality rate was significantly higher in the increased RDW group compared with the normal RDW group (P < 0.001). According to multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis, RDW levels at the onset of bacteremia (per 1% increase, P = 0.036), the Charlson index (per 1-point increase, P < 0.001), and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (per 1-point increase, P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for 28-day mortality. Moreover, the nonsurvivor group had significantly higher RDW levels 72 h after the onset of bacteremia than did the survivor group (P = 0.001). In addition, the area under the curve of RDW at the onset of bacteremia, the 72-h RDW, and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score for 28-day mortality were 0.764 (P = 0.001), 0.802 (P < 0.001), and 0.703 (P = 0.008), respectively. Red blood cell distribution width at the onset of bacteremia was an independent predictor of mortality in patients with Gram-negative bacteremia. Also, 72-h RDW could be a predictor for all-cause mortality in patients with Gram-negative bacteremia.

  2. Metabonomics Analysis of Plasma Reveals the Lactate to Cholesterol Ratio as an Independent Prognostic Factor of Short-Term Mortality in Acute Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Desmoulin, Franck; Galinier, Michel; Trouillet, Charlotte; Berry, Matthieu; Delmas, Clément; Turkieh, Annie; Massabuau, Pierre; Taegtmeyer, Heinrich; Smih, Fatima; Rouet, Philippe

    2013-01-01

    Objective Mortality in heart failure (AHF) remains high, especially during the first days of hospitalization. New prognostic biomarkers may help to optimize treatment. The aim of the study was to determine metabolites that have a high prognostic value. Methods We conducted a prospective study on a training cohort of AHF patients (n = 126) admitted in the cardiac intensive care unit and assessed survival at 30 days. Venous plasmas collected at admission were used for 1H NMR–based metabonomics analysis. Differences between plasma metabolite profiles allow determination of discriminating metabolites. A cohort of AHF patients was subsequently constituted (n = 74) to validate the findings. Results Lactate and cholesterol were the major discriminating metabolites predicting 30-day mortality. Mortality was increased in patients with high lactate and low total cholesterol concentrations at admission. Accuracies of lactate, cholesterol concentration and lactate to cholesterol (Lact/Chol) ratio to predict 30-day mortality were evaluated using ROC analysis. The Lact/Chol ratio provided the best accuracy with an AUC of 0.82 (P < 0.0001). The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II scoring system provided an AUC of 0.76 for predicting 30-day mortality. APACHE II score, Cardiogenic shock (CS) state and Lact/Chol ratio ≥ 0.4 (cutoff value with 82% sensitivity and 64% specificity) were significant independent predictors of 30-day mortality with hazard ratios (HR) of 1.11, 4.77 and 3.59, respectively. In CS patients, the HR of 30-day mortality risk for plasma Lact/Chol ratio ≥ 0.4 was 3.26 compared to a Lact/Chol ratio of < 0.4 (P  =  0.018). The predictive power of the Lact/Chol ratio for 30-day mortality outcome was confirmed with the independent validation cohort. Conclusion This study identifies the plasma Lact/Chol ratio as a useful objective and simple parameter to evaluate short term prognostic and could be integrated into quantitative

  3. Metabonomics analysis of plasma reveals the lactate to cholesterol ratio as an independent prognostic factor of short-term mortality in acute heart failure.

    PubMed

    Desmoulin, Franck; Galinier, Michel; Trouillet, Charlotte; Berry, Matthieu; Delmas, Clément; Turkieh, Annie; Massabuau, Pierre; Taegtmeyer, Heinrich; Smih, Fatima; Rouet, Philippe

    2013-01-01

    Mortality in heart failure (AHF) remains high, especially during the first days of hospitalization. New prognostic biomarkers may help to optimize treatment. The aim of the study was to determine metabolites that have a high prognostic value. We conducted a prospective study on a training cohort of AHF patients (n = 126) admitted in the cardiac intensive care unit and assessed survival at 30 days. Venous plasmas collected at admission were used for (1)H NMR--based metabonomics analysis. Differences between plasma metabolite profiles allow determination of discriminating metabolites. A cohort of AHF patients was subsequently constituted (n = 74) to validate the findings. Lactate and cholesterol were the major discriminating metabolites predicting 30-day mortality. Mortality was increased in patients with high lactate and low total cholesterol concentrations at admission. Accuracies of lactate, cholesterol concentration and lactate to cholesterol (Lact/Chol) ratio to predict 30-day mortality were evaluated using ROC analysis. The Lact/Chol ratio provided the best accuracy with an AUC of 0.82 (P < 0.0001). The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II scoring system provided an AUC of 0.76 for predicting 30-day mortality. APACHE II score, Cardiogenic shock (CS) state and Lact/Chol ratio ≥ 0.4 (cutoff value with 82% sensitivity and 64% specificity) were significant independent predictors of 30-day mortality with hazard ratios (HR) of 1.11, 4.77 and 3.59, respectively. In CS patients, the HR of 30-day mortality risk for plasma Lact/Chol ratio ≥ 0.4 was 3.26 compared to a Lact/Chol ratio of < 0.4 (P = 0.018). The predictive power of the Lact/Chol ratio for 30-day mortality outcome was confirmed with the independent validation cohort. This study identifies the plasma Lact/Chol ratio as a useful objective and simple parameter to evaluate short term prognostic and could be integrated into quantitative guidance for decision making in heart failure care.

  4. Lifestyle predicts falls independent of physical risk factors.

    PubMed

    Faulkner, K A; Cauley, J A; Studenski, S A; Landsittel, D P; Cummings, S R; Ensrud, K E; Donaldson, M G; Nevitt, M C

    2009-12-01

    Many falls occur among older adults with no traditional risk factors. We examined potential independent effects of lifestyle on fall risk. Not smoking and going outdoors frequently or infrequently were independently associated with more falls, indicating lifestyle-related behavioral and environmental risk factors are important causes of falls in older women. Physical and lifestyle risk factors for falls and population attributable risks (PAR) were examined. We conducted a 4-year prospective study of 8,378 community-dwelling women (mean age = 71 years, SD = 3) enrolled in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures. Data on number of falls were self-reported every 4 months. Fall rates were calculated (# falls/woman-years). Poisson regression was used to estimate relative risks (RR). Physical risk factors (p < or = 0.05 for all) included tall height (RR = 0.89 per 5 in.), dizziness (RR = 1.16), fear of falling (RR = 1.20), self-reported health decline (RR = 1.19), difficulty with Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADLs) (RR = 1.12, per item), fast usual-paced walking speed (RR = 1.18, per 2 SD), and use of antidepressants (RR = 1.20), benzodiazepines (RR = 1.11), or anticonvulsants (RR = 1.62). Protective physical factors (p < or = 0.05 for all) included good visual acuity (RR = 0.87, per 2 SD) and good balance (RR = 0.85 vs. poor). Lifestyle predicted fewer falls including current smoking (RR = 0.76), going outdoors at least twice weekly but not more than once a day (RR = 0.89 and vs. twice daily). High physical activity was associated with more falls but only among IADL impaired women. Five potentially modifiable physical risk factors had PAR > or = 5%. Fall interventions addressing modifiable physical risk factors with PAR > or = 5% while considering environmental/behavioral risk factors are indicated.

  5. Artificial neural networks accurately predict mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper GI bleeding.

    PubMed

    Rotondano, Gianluca; Cipolletta, Livio; Grossi, Enzo; Koch, Maurizio; Intraligi, Marco; Buscema, Massimo; Marmo, Riccardo

    2011-02-01

    Risk stratification systems that accurately identify patients with a high risk for bleeding through the use of clinical predictors of mortality before endoscopic examination are needed. Computerized (artificial) neural networks (ANNs) are adaptive tools that may improve prognostication. To assess the capability of an ANN to predict mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper GI bleeding and compare the predictive performance of the ANN with that of the Rockall score. Prospective, multicenter study. Academic and community hospitals. This study involved 2380 patients with nonvariceal upper GI bleeding. Upper GI endoscopy. The primary outcome variable was 30-day mortality, defined as any death occurring within 30 days of the index bleeding episode. Other outcome variables were recurrent bleeding and need for surgery. We performed analysis of certified outcomes of 2380 patients with nonvariceal upper GI bleeding. The Rockall score was compared with a supervised ANN (TWIST system, Semeion), adopting the same result validation protocol with random allocation of the sample in training and testing subsets and subsequent crossover. Overall, death occurred in 112 cases (4.70%). Of 68 pre-endoscopic input variables, 17 were selected and used by the ANN versus 16 included in the Rockall score. The sensitivity of the ANN-based model was 83.8% (76.7-90.8) versus 71.4% (62.8-80.0) for the Rockall score. Specificity was 97.5 (96.8-98.2) and 52.0 (49.8 4.2), respectively. Accuracy was 96.8% (96.0-97.5) versus 52.9% (50.8-55.0) (P<.001). The predictive performance of the ANN-based model for prediction of mortality was significantly superior to that of the complete Rockall score (area under the curve 0.95 [0.92-0.98] vs 0.67 [0.65-0.69]; P<.001). External validation on a subsequent independent population is needed, patients with variceal bleeding and obscure GI hemorrhage are excluded. In patients with nonvariceal upper GI bleeding, ANNs are significantly superior to the Rockall

  6. Intensive care unit-acquired hypernatremia is an independent predictor of increased mortality and length of stay.

    PubMed

    Waite, Michael D; Fuhrman, Steven A; Badawi, Omar; Zuckerman, Ilene H; Franey, Christine S

    2013-08-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of hypernatremia acquired after intensive care unit (ICU) admission on mortality and length of stay (LOS). Data for this observational study were collected from patients admitted between January 1, 2008, and September 30, 2010 to 344 ICUs in the eICU Research Institute. Of the 207702 eligible patients, 8896 (4.3%) developed hypernatremia (serum Na >149 mEq/L). Hospital mortality was 32% for patients with hypernatremia and 11% for patients without hypernatremia (P < .0001). Intensive care unit LOS was 13.7 ± 9.7 days for patients with hypernatremia and 5.1 ± 4.6 for patients without hypernatremia (P < .0001). Multivariate analysis showed that hypernatremia was an independent risk factor for hospital mortality with a relative risk (RR) of 1.40 (95% confidence interval, 1.34-1.45) and ICU LOS with a rate ratio (RtR) of 1.28 (1.26-1.30). The RR for mortality and RtR for ICU LOS increased with increasing severity strata of hypernatremia, but the duration of hypernatremia was not associated with mortality. Hypernatremia developed following ICU admission in 4.3% of patients. Hypernatremia was independently associated with a 40% increase in risk for hospital mortality and a 28% increase in ICU LOS. Severity, but not duration of ICU-acquired hypernatremia was associated with hospital mortality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. A Validated Risk Score for Venous Thromboembolism Is Predictive of Cancer Progression and Mortality.

    PubMed

    Kuderer, Nicole M; Culakova, Eva; Lyman, Gary H; Francis, Charles; Falanga, Anna; Khorana, Alok A

    2016-07-01

    Retrospective studies have suggested an association between cancer-associated venous thromboembolism (VTE) and patient survival. We evaluated a previously validated VTE Clinical Risk Score in also predicting early mortality and cancer progression. A large, nationwide, prospective cohort study of adults with solid tumors or lymphoma initiating chemotherapy was conducted from 2002 to 2006 at 115 U.S. practice sites. Survival and cancer progression were estimated by the method of Kaplan and Meier. Multivariate analysis was based on Cox regression analysis adjusted for major prognostic factors including VTE itself. Of 4,405 patients, 134 (3.0%) died and 330 (7.5%) experienced disease progression during the first 4 months of therapy (median follow-up 75 days). Patients deemed high risk (n = 540, 12.3%) by the Clinical Risk Score had a 120-day mortality rate of 12.7% (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3.00, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4-6.3), and intermediate-risk patients (n = 2,665, 60.5%) had a mortality rate of 5.9% (aHR 2.3, 95% CI 1.2-4.4) compared with only 1.4% for low-risk patients (n = 1,200, 27.2%). At 120 days of follow-up, cancer progression occurred in 27.2% of high-risk patients (aHR 2.2, 95% CI 1.4-3.5) and 16.4% of intermediate-risk patients (aHR 1.9, 95% CI 1.3-2.7) compared with only 8.5% of low-risk patients (p < .0001). The Clinical Risk Score, originally developed to predict the occurrence of VTE, is also predictive of early mortality and cancer progression during the first four cycles of outpatient chemotherapy, independent from other major prognostic factors including VTE itself. Ongoing and future studies will help determine the impact of VTE prophylaxis on survival. The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is increased in patients receiving cancer chemotherapy. In this article, the authors demonstrate that a popular risk score for VTE in patients with cancer is also associated with the risk of early mortality in this setting. It is important that

  8. Predicting mortality for paediatric inpatients where malaria is uncommon

    PubMed Central

    Clifton, Dana C; Ramadhani, Habib O; Msuya, Levina J; Njau, Boniface N; Kinabo, Grace D; Buchanan, Ann M; Crump, John A

    2012-01-01

    Objective As the proportion of children living low malaria transmission areas in sub-Saharan Africa increases, approaches for identifying non-malarial severe illness need to be evaluated to improve child outcomes. Design As a prospective cohort study, we identified febrile paediatric inpatients, recorded data using Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) criteria, and collected diagnostic specimens. Setting Tertiary referral centre, northern Tanzania. Results Of 466 participants with known outcome, median age was 1.4 years (range 2 months–13.0 years), 200 (42.9%) were female, 11 (2.4%) had malaria and 34 (7.3%) died. Inpatient death was associated with: Capillary refill >3 s (OR 9.0, 95% CI 3.0 to 26.7), inability to breastfeed or drink (OR 8.9, 95% CI 4.0 to 19.6), stiff neck (OR 7.0, 95% CI 2.8 to 17.6), lethargy (OR 5.2, 95% CI 2.5 to 10.6), skin pinch >2 s (OR 4.8, 95% CI 1.9 to 12.3), respiratory difficulty (OR 4.0, 95% CI 1.9 to 8.2), generalised lymphadenopathy (OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.6 to 8.3) and oral candidiasis (OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.4 to 8.3). BCS <5 (OR 27.2, p<0.001) and severe wasting (OR 6.9, p<0.001) were independently associated with inpatient death. Conclusions In a low malaria transmission setting, IMCI criteria performed well for predicting inpatient death from non-malarial illness. Laboratory results were not as useful in predicting death, underscoring the importance of clinical examination in assessing prognosis. Healthcare workers should consider local malaria epidemiology as malaria over-diagnosis in children may delay potentially life-saving interventions in areas where malaria is uncommon. PMID:22872067

  9. Executive Function [Capacity for Behavioral Self-regulation]and Decline Predicted Mortality in a Longitudinal Study in Southern Colorado

    PubMed Central

    Amirian, E.; Baxter, Judith; Grigsby, Jim; Curran-Everett, Douglas; Hokanson, John E; Bryant, Lucinda L

    2009-01-01

    Objective To assess the relationship between mortality and impairment and decline in a specific executive cognitive function, the capacity for behavioral self-regulation. Study Design & Setting This study examined the association between mortality and baseline and 22-month decline in the capacity for behavioral self-regulation, as measured by the Behavioral Dyscontrol Scale, among 1,293 participants of the San Luis Valley Health and Aging Study (SLVHAS), a population-based longitudinal study. The Behavioral Dyscontrol Scale and a measure of overall mental status, the Mini-Mental State Examination, were administered at baseline and follow-up interviews. Cox regression was used to examine baseline and decline in capacity for behavioral self-regulation as possible predictors of morality. Results Baseline Behavioral Dyscontrol Scale score was predictive of mortality, independent of demographics and comorbidity count (HR=1.07; 95% CI:1.04–1.09). It remained a significant predictor with further adjustment for Mini-Mental State Examination score. Decline in this specific executive cognitive function was associated with mortality after adjustment for covariates and baseline cognitive scores (HR=1.09; 95% CI:1.04–1.13). Conclusion Thus, both baseline capacity for behavioral self-regulation and its decline over time predicted mortality in the SLVHAS cohort. These associations may partly be due to maintaining the ability for self-care. Understanding how specific forms of impairment contribute to mortality may help identify patients who could benefit from early intervention. PMID:19716261

  10. Pulmonary Congestion Predicts Cardiac Events and Mortality in ESRD

    PubMed Central

    Torino, Claudia; Tripepi, Rocco; Tripepi, Giovanni; D’Arrigo, Graziella; Postorino, Maurizio; Gargani, Luna; Sicari, Rosa; Picano, Eugenio; Mallamaci, Francesca

    2013-01-01

    Pulmonary congestion is highly prevalent and often asymptomatic among patients with ESRD treated with hemodialysis, but whether its presence predicts clinical outcomes is unknown. Here, we tested the prognostic value of extravascular lung water measured by a simple, well validated ultrasound B-lines score (BL-US) in a multicenter study that enrolled 392 hemodialysis patients. We detected moderate-to-severe lung congestion in 45% and very severe congestion in 14% of the patients. Among those patients with moderate-to-severe lung congestion, 71% were asymptomatic or presented slight symptoms of heart failure. Compared with those patients having mild or no congestion, patients with very severe congestion had a 4.2-fold risk of death (HR=4.20, 95% CI=2.45–7.23) and a 3.2-fold risk of cardiac events (HR=3.20, 95% CI=1.75–5.88) adjusted for NYHA class and other risk factors. Including the degree of pulmonary congestion in the model significantly improved the risk reclassification for cardiac events by 10% (P<0.015). In summary, lung ultrasound can detect asymptomatic pulmonary congestion in hemodialysis patients, and the resulting BL-US score is a strong, independent predictor of death and cardiac events in this population. PMID:23449536

  11. GRACE Score Validation in Predicting Hospital Mortality: Analysis of the Role of Sex.

    PubMed

    de-Miguel-Balsa, Eva; Latour-Pérez, Jaime; Baeza-Román, Anna; Amorós-Verdú, Cristina; Fernández-Lozano, Juan Antonio

    2017-01-20

    The GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) risk score is recommended for risk stratification in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). It does not include sex, a variable strongly associated with ACS prognosis. The aim of this study was to examine if sex adds prognostic information to the GRACE score in a contemporary population. Analysis of discrimination and calibration of GRACE score in the validation population, derived from the ARIAM-SEMICYUC registry (2012-2015). Outcome was hospital mortality. The uniformity of fit of the score was tested in predefined subpopulations: with and without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI and NSTEMI). A total of 9781 patients were included: 4598 with NSTEMI (28% women) and 5183 with STEMI (23% women). Discriminative capacity of the GRACE score was significantly lower in women with STEMI compared to men (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.82, 95% CI 0.78-0.86 vs. AUC 0.90, 95% CI 0.88-0.92, p = 0.0006). In multivariate analysis, female sex predicted hospital mortality independently of GRACE in STEMI (p = 0.019) but not in NSTEMI (p = 0.356) (interaction p = 0.0308). However, neither the AUC nor the net reclassification index (NRI) improved by including female sex in the STEMI subpopulation (NRI 0.0011, 95% CI -0.023 to 0.025; p = 0.928). Although female sex was an independent predictor of hospital mortality in the STEMI subpopulation, it does not substantially improve the discriminative ability of GRACE score.

  12. Trends and predictions for gastric cancer mortality in Brazil

    PubMed Central

    de Souza Giusti, Angela Carolina Brandão; de Oliveira Salvador, Pétala Tuani Candido; dos Santos, Juliano; Meira, Karina Cardoso; Camacho, Amanda Rodrigues; Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça; Souza, Dyego L B

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To analyze the effect of age-period and birth cohort on gastric cancer mortality, in Brazil and across its five geographic regions, by sex, in the population over 20 years of age, as well as make projections for the period 2010-2029. METHODS: An ecological study is presented herein, which distributed gastric cancer-related deaths in Brazil and its geographic regions. The effects of age-period and birth cohort were calculated by the Poisson regression model and projections were made with the age-period-cohort model in the statistical program R. RESULTS: Progressive reduction of mortality rates was observed in the 1980’s, and then higher and lower mortality rates were verified in the 2000’s, for both sexes, in Brazil and for the South, Southeast and Midwest regions. A progressive decrease in mortality rates was observed for the Northeast (both sexes) and North (men only) regions within the period 1995-1999, followed by rising rates. CONCLUSION: Regional differences were demonstrated in the mortality rates for gastric cancer in Brazil, and the least developed regions of the country will present increases in projected mortality rates. PMID:27605887

  13. Trends and predictions for gastric cancer mortality in Brazil.

    PubMed

    de Souza Giusti, Angela Carolina Brandão; de Oliveira Salvador, Pétala Tuani Candido; Dos Santos, Juliano; Meira, Karina Cardoso; Camacho, Amanda Rodrigues; Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça; Souza, Dyego L B

    2016-07-28

    To analyze the effect of age-period and birth cohort on gastric cancer mortality, in Brazil and across its five geographic regions, by sex, in the population over 20 years of age, as well as make projections for the period 2010-2029. An ecological study is presented herein, which distributed gastric cancer-related deaths in Brazil and its geographic regions. The effects of age-period and birth cohort were calculated by the Poisson regression model and projections were made with the age-period-cohort model in the statistical program R. Progressive reduction of mortality rates was observed in the 1980's, and then higher and lower mortality rates were verified in the 2000's, for both sexes, in Brazil and for the South, Southeast and Midwest regions. A progressive decrease in mortality rates was observed for the Northeast (both sexes) and North (men only) regions within the period 1995-1999, followed by rising rates. Regional differences were demonstrated in the mortality rates for gastric cancer in Brazil, and the least developed regions of the country will present increases in projected mortality rates.

  14. Nutritional Status Predicts 10-Year Mortality in Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease on Hemodialysis.

    PubMed

    Kang, Shin Sook; Chang, Jai Won; Park, Yongsoon

    2017-04-18

    Protein-energy wasting (PEW) is associated with mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) on maintenance hemodialysis. The correct diagnosis of PEW is extremely important in order to predict clinical outcomes. However, it is unclear which parameters should be used to diagnose PEW. Therefore, this retrospective observational study investigated the relationship between mortality and nutritional parameters in ESRD patients on maintenance hemodialysis. A total of 144 patients were enrolled. Nutritional parameters, including body mass index, serum albumin, dietary intake, normalized protein catabolic rate (nPCR), and malnutrition inflammation score (MIS), were measured at baseline. Fifty-three patients died during the study. Survivors had significantly higher nPCR (1.10 ± 0.24 g/kg/day vs. 1.01 ± 0.21 g/kg/day; p = 0.048), energy intake (26.7 ± 5.8 kcal/kg vs. 24.3 ± 4.2 kcal/kg; p = 0.009) and protein intake (0.91 ± 0.21 g/kg vs. 0.82 ± 0.24 g/kg; p = 0.020), and lower MIS (5.2 ± 2.3 vs. 6.1 ± 2.1, p = 0.039). In multivariable analysis, energy intake <25 kcal/kg (HR 1.860, 95% CI 1.018-3.399; p = 0.044) and MIS > 5 (HR 2.146, 95% CI 1.173-3.928; p = 0.013) were independent variables associated with all-cause mortality. These results suggest that higher MIS and lower energy intake are harmful to ESRD patients on maintenance hemodialysis. Optimal energy intake could reduce mortality in these patients.

  15. Central Venous Pressure After Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery: Does it Predict Postoperative Mortality or Renal Failure?

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Judson B.; Peterson, Eric D.; Wojdyla, Daniel; Ferguson, T. Bruce; Smith, Peter K.; Milano, Carmelo A.; Lopes, Renato D.

    2015-01-01

    Background While hemodynamic monitoring is often performed following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), the relationship between postoperative central venous pressure (CVP) measurement and clinical outcomes is unknown. Methods Detailed clinical data were analyzed from 2,390 randomly selected patients undergoing high risk CABG or CABG/valve at 55 hospitals participating in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons' National Cardiac Surgery Database from 2004 to 2005. Eligible patients underwent elective/urgent isolated CABG with an ejection fraction < 40%, or elective/urgent CABG at age ≥65 years with diabetes or a glomerular filtration rate 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2. Correlation between post-operative CVP and in-hospital / 30-day mortality and renal failure was assessed as a continuous variable, both unadjusted and after adjusting for important clinical factors using logistic regression modeling. Results Mean age was 72 years, 54% of patients had diabetes mellitus, 49% were urgent procedures, and mean cardiopulmonary bypass time was 105 minutes. Patients’ CVP 6 hours post-operation was strongly associated with in-hospital and 30 day mortality: odds ratio (OR) 1.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23, 1.87) for every 5 mmHg increase in CVP, p<0.0001. This association remained significant after risk-adjustment for cardiac index: adjusted OR 1.44 (95% CI 1.10, 1.89), p<0.01. A model adjusting for cardiac index also revealed increased incidence of mortality or renal failure: adjusted OR 1.5 (95% CI 1.28, 1.86) for every 5 mmHg increase in CVP, p<0.0001. Conclusion Patients’ central venous pressure at 6 hours following CABG surgery was highly predictive of operative mortality or renal failure, independent of cardiac index and other important clinical variables. Future studies will need to assess whether post-operative CVP can be used to guide intervention and improve outcomes. PMID:25035048

  16. Usefulness of the Delta Neutrophil Index to Predict 30-Day Mortality in Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

    PubMed

    Kong, Taeyoung; In, Sangkook; Park, Yoo Seok; Lee, Hye Sun; Lee, Jong Wook; You, Je Sung; Chung, Hyun Soo; Park, Incheol; Chung, Sung Phil

    2017-10-01

    The delta neutrophil index (DNI), reflecting the fraction of circulating immature granulocytes, is associated with increased mortality in patients with systemic inflammation. It is rapidly and easily measured while performing a complete blood count. This study aimed to determine whether the DNI can predict short-term mortality in patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH). We retrospectively identified consecutive patients (>18 years old) with UGIH admitted to the ED from January 1, 2015 to February 28, 2016. The diagnosis of UGIH was confirmed using clinical, laboratory, and endoscopic findings. The DNI was determined on each day of hospitalization. The outcome of interest was 30-day mortality. Overall, 432 patients with UGIH met our inclusion criteria. The multivariate Cox regression model demonstrated that higher DNI values on days 0 (hazard ratio [HR], 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.17; P = 0.012) and 1 (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.06-1.24; P = 0.001) were strong independent predictors of short-term mortality. Further, a DNI >1% at ED admission was associated with an increased risk (HR, 40.9; 95% CI, 20.8-80.5; P < 0.001) of 30-day mortality. The optimal cut-off value for DNI on day 1 was 2.6%; this was associated with an increased hazard of 30-day mortality following UGIH (HR, 7.85; 95% CI, 3.59-17.15; P < 0.001). The DNI can be measured rapidly and simply at ED admission without additional cost or time burden. Increased DNI values independently predict 30-day mortality in patients with UGIH.

  17. Soluble ST2 for Risk Stratification and the Prediction of Mortality in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.

    PubMed

    Stundl, Anja; Lünstedt, Nina-Sophie; Courtz, Florian; Freitag-Wolf, Sandra; Frey, Norbert; Holdenrieder, Stefan; Zur, Berndt; Grube, Eberhard; Nickenig, Georg; Werner, Nikos; Frank, Derk; Sinning, Jan-Malte

    2017-09-15

    This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of soluble ST2 (sST2) for risk stratification in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). In 461 patients undergoing TAVI, sST2 was determined at baseline and categorized into quartiles. An optimum cutoff of 29 ng/ml was calculated. Primary end point was 1-year all-cause mortality. Results were validated in an independent cohort. Patients with sST2 >29 ng/ml had an increased 30-day (9.7% vs 4.6%, p = 0.043) and 1-year mortality (38.1% vs 21.8%, p = 0.001). In accordance, patients with N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) >8145 pg/ml revealed a comparable 30-day mortality (7.9% vs 4.7%, p = 0.189) and 1-year mortality (39.5% vs 21.0%, p <0.001). In univariate regression analysis, sST2 and NT-proBNP were associated with increased mortality risk. In multivariate regression analysis, independent predictors of mortality were logistic EuroSCORE, chronic renal failure, left ventricular ejection fraction, and sST2. In receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, sST2 did not provide incremental prognostic information beyond that obtained from surgical risk scores such as the STS-PROM or NT-proBNP. Similar findings could be achieved in an independent validation cohort. In conclusion, sST2 is independently associated with adverse outcome after TAVI but was not superior to NT-proBNP or surgical risk scores for the prediction of postprocedural outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Gender-related risk factors improve mortality predictive ability of VACS Index among HIV-infected women

    PubMed Central

    COHEN, Mardge H; HOTTON, Anna L; HERSHOW, Ronald C; LEVINE, Alexandra; BACCHETTI, Peter; GOLUB, Elizabeth T.; ANASTOS, Kathryn; YOUNG, Mary; GUSTAFSON, Deborah; WEBER, Kathleen M

    2015-01-01

    Background Adding gender-related modifiable characteristics or behaviors to the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index might improve the accuracy of predicting mortality among HIV-infected women on treatment. We evaluated the VACS Index in women with HIV, determined whether additional variables would improve mortality prediction, and quantified the potential for improved survival associated with reduction in these additional risk factors. Methods The VACS Index (based on age, CD4 count, HIV-1 RNA, hemoglobin, AST, ALT, platelets, creatinine and Hepatitis C status) was validated in HIV-infected women in the Women’s Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) between January 1996 and December 2007. Models were constructed adding race, depression, abuse, smoking, substance use, transactional sex, and comorbidities to determine whether predictability improved. Population attributable fractions were calculated. Results The VACS Index accurately predicted 5-year mortality in 1057 WIHS women with 1 year on HAART with c-index 0.83 (95% CI 0.79–0.87). In multivariate analysis, the VACS Index score (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] for 5-point increment 1.30; 95% CI 1.25–1.35), depressive symptoms (aHR 1.73; 95% CI 1.17–2.56) and history of transactional sex (aHR 1.93; 95% CI 1.33–1.82) were independent statistically significant predictors of mortality. Conclusions Including depression and transactional sex significantly improved the performance of the VACS Index in predicting mortality among HIV-infected women. Providing treatment for depression and addressing economic and psychosocial instability in HIV infected women would improve health and perhaps point to a broader public health approach to reducing HIV mortality. PMID:26284531

  19. Global Trends in Pancreatic Cancer Mortality From 1980 Through 2013 and Predictions for 2017.

    PubMed

    Lucas, Aimee L; Malvezzi, Matteo; Carioli, Greta; Negri, Eva; La Vecchia, Carlo; Boffetta, Paolo; Bosetti, Cristina

    2016-10-01

    Pancreatic cancer is a leading cause of cancer mortality, and its mortality has not decreased in recent years. We sought to determine global trends in pancreatic cancer mortality. We derived data on deaths from pancreatic cancer from the World Health Organization database for 59 countries from 1980 through 2013. Age-standardized mortalities were computed for persons of all ages and for persons 35-64 years old; for selected countries, they were computed for persons 25-49 years old. Joinpoint regression models were used to identify significant changes in mortality. For selected larger countries, we predicted number of deaths and mortality for 2017. Between 1980 and 2013, overall pancreatic cancer mortality in men increased in the European Union (EU) as well as in Southern and Eastern Europe, Brazil, Japan, and Republic of Korea. Overall pancreatic cancer mortality decreased in most Northern European countries, Australia, Canada, Mexico, and the United States (US). In women, mortality increased in the EU, Brazil, US, Japan, and Republic of Korea but decreased in Canada and Mexico. In 2012, Eastern Europe and Japan had the highest pancreatic cancer mortality for both sexes. In men 25-49 years old, mortality decreased in the EU, US, Japan, and most large European countries. On the basis of our data, we predict overall pancreatic cancer mortality in 2017 to level off in men in the EU and US but increase in Japan. In women, mortality will continue to increase in most countries except the US; the greatest increase is predicted to occur in Japan. Mortality from pancreatic cancer has not decreased as it has for other cancers in recent years. A notable exception is a decrease in mortality in men 25-49 years old, which could indicate a reversal in the current increasing global trends. Copyright © 2016 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Uric acid measurement improves prediction of cardiovascular mortality in later life.

    PubMed

    Dutta, Ambarish; Henley, William; Pilling, Luke C; Wallace, Robert B; Melzer, David

    2013-03-01

    To estimate the association between uric acid and cardiovascular mortality in older adults, independent of traditional risk factors, and to estimate the risk prediction gain by adding uric acid measurements to the Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score (FCRS). Longitudinal observational study of two population-based cohorts. The Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly, Iowa (Iowa-EPESE) and the Third National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES III). One thousand twenty-eight Iowa-EPESE participants and 1,316 NHANES III participants. Selected participants were aged 70 and older without overt cardiovascular disease, renal dysfunction, or diuretic use who lived for 3 years or longer after baseline. Outcome was age at cardiovascular death during follow-up (12–20 years). Uric acid and cardiovascular risk factors such as smoking, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, obesity, serum cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were measured at baseline. High serum uric acid (>7.0 mg/dL) was associated with male sex, obesity, lipid levels, and estimated glomerular filtration rate at baseline. Fully adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for cardiovascular death with high uric acid versus normal were 1.36 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.10–1.69) in Iowa-EPESE and 1.43 (95% CI = 1.04–1.99) in NHANES III; pooled HR was 1.38 (95% CI = 1.16–1.61). The net reclassification improvement achieved by adding uric acid measurement to the FCRS was 9% to 20%. In individuals aged 70 and older without overt CVD, renal dysfunction, or diuretic use, serum uric acid greater than 7.0 mg/dL was associated with greater CVD mortality independent of classic CVD risk factors. Adding uric acid measurement to the FCRS would improve prediction in older adults.

  1. Bariatric surgery insurance requirements independently predict surgery dropout.

    PubMed

    Love, Kaitlin M; Mehaffey, J Hunter; Safavian, Dana; Schirmer, Bruce; Malin, Steven K; Hallowell, Peter T; Kirby, Jennifer L

    2017-05-01

    Many insurance companies have considerable prebariatric surgery requirements despite a lack of evidence for improved clinical outcomes. The hypothesis of this study is that insurance-specific requirements will be associated with a decreased progression to surgery and increased delay in time to surgery. Retrospective data collection was performed for patients undergoing bariatric surgery evaluation from 2010-2015. Patients who underwent surgery (SGY; n = 827; mean body mass index [BMI] 49.1) were compared with those who did not (no-SGY; n = 648; mean BMI: 49.4). Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify specific co-morbidity and insurance specific predictors of surgical dropout and time to surgery. A total of 1475 patients using 12 major insurance payors were included. Univariate analysis found insurance requirements associated with surgical drop out included longer median diet duration (no-SGY = 6 mo; SGY = 3 mo; P<.001); primary care physician letter of necessity (P<.0001); laboratory testing (P = .019); and evaluation by cardiology (P<.001), pulmonology (P<.0001), or psychiatry (P = .0003). Using logistic regression to control for co-morbidities, longer diet requirement (odds ratio [OR] .88, P<.0001), primary care physician letter (OR .33, P<.0001), cardiology evaluation (OR .22, P = .038), and advanced laboratory testing (OR 5.75, P = .019) independently predicted surgery dropout. Additionally, surgical patients had an average interval between initial visit and surgery of 5.8±4.6 months with significant weight gain (2.1 kg, P<.0001). Many prebariatric surgery insurance requirements were associated with lack of patient progression to surgery in this study. In addition, delays in surgery were associated with preoperative weight gain. Although prospective and multicenter studies are needed, these findings have major policy implications suggesting insurance requirements may need to be reconsidered to improve medical care. Copyright © 2017

  2. Monitoring of the newborn dog and prediction of neonatal mortality.

    PubMed

    Mila, Hanna; Grellet, Aurélien; Delebarre, Marine; Mariani, Claire; Feugier, Alexandre; Chastant-Maillard, Sylvie

    2017-08-01

    Despite the high neonatal mortality rate in puppies, pertinent criteria for health evaluation of the newborns are not defined. This study was thus designed to measure and to characterize factors of variation of six health parameters in dog neonates, and to evaluate their value as predictors of neonatal mortality. A total of 347 purebred puppies under identical conditions of housing and management were examined within the first 8h after birth and then at Day 1. The first health evaluation included Apgar score, weight, blood glucose, lactate and β-hydroxybutyrate concentration, rectal temperature and urine specific gravity (SG). The second evaluation at Day 1 included the same parameters, excluding Apgar score and weight. The mortality rate over the first 24h and over 21days of age was recorded. The early predictors of neonatal mortality in the dog were determined with generalized linear mixed models and receiver operating characteristic curves analyses. An Apgar score at or below 6 evaluated within the first 8h after birth was found associated with a higher risk of death during the first 24h. A reduced glucose concentration (≤92mg/dl) at Day 1 was found to be associated with higher mortality between 1 and 21days of age. Low-birth-weight puppies were characterized by both low viability (low Apgar score) and low blood glucose concentration, and thus were found indirectly at higher risk of neonatal mortality. This study promotes two low cost easy-to-use tests for health evaluation in puppies, i.e. Apgar scoring and blood glucose assay. Further investigation is necessary to establish if the strong relationship between blood glucose and neonatal survival reflects high energy requirements or other benefits from colostrum intake. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Change in Leukocyte Telomere Length Predicts Mortality in Patients with Stable Coronary Heart Disease from the Heart and Soul Study.

    PubMed

    Goglin, Sarah E; Farzaneh-Far, Ramin; Epel, Elissa S; Lin, Jue; Blackburn, Elizabeth H; Whooley, Mary A

    2016-01-01

    Short telomere length independently predicts mortality in patients with coronary heart disease. Whether 5-year change in telomere length predicts subsequent mortality in patients with coronary heart disease has not been evaluated. In a prospective cohort study of 608 individuals with stable coronary artery disease, we measured leukocyte telomere length at baseline and after five years of follow-up. We divided the sample into tertiles of telomere change: shortened, maintained or lengthened. We used Cox survival models to evaluate 5-year change in telomere length as a predictor of mortality. During an average of 4.2 years follow-up, there were 149 deaths. Change in telomere length was inversely predictive of all-cause mortality. Using the continuous variable of telomere length change, each standard deviation (325 base pair) greater increase in telomere length was associated with a 24% reduction in mortality (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.61-0.94; p = 0.01), adjusted for age, sex, waist to hip ratio, exercise capacity, LV ejection fraction, serum creatinine, and year 5 telomere length. Mortality occurred in 39% (79/203) of patients who experienced telomere shortening, 22% (45/203) of patients whose telomere length was maintained, and 12% (25/202) of patients who experienced telomere lengthening (p<0.001). As compared with patients whose telomere length was maintained, those who experienced telomere lengthening were 56% less likely to die (HR 0.44, 95% CI, 0.23-0.87). In patients with coronary heart disease, an increase in leukocyte telomere length over 5 years is associated with decreased mortality.

  4. Change in Leukocyte Telomere Length Predicts Mortality in Patients with Stable Coronary Heart Disease from the Heart and Soul Study

    PubMed Central

    Goglin, Sarah E.; Farzaneh-Far, Ramin; Epel, Elissa S.; Lin, Jue; Blackburn, Elizabeth H.

    2016-01-01

    Background Short telomere length independently predicts mortality in patients with coronary heart disease. Whether 5-year change in telomere length predicts subsequent mortality in patients with coronary heart disease has not been evaluated. Methods In a prospective cohort study of 608 individuals with stable coronary artery disease, we measured leukocyte telomere length at baseline and after five years of follow-up. We divided the sample into tertiles of telomere change: shortened, maintained or lengthened. We used Cox survival models to evaluate 5-year change in telomere length as a predictor of mortality. Results During an average of 4.2 years follow-up, there were 149 deaths. Change in telomere length was inversely predictive of all-cause mortality. Using the continuous variable of telomere length change, each standard deviation (325 base pair) greater increase in telomere length was associated with a 24% reduction in mortality (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.61–0.94; p = 0.01), adjusted for age, sex, waist to hip ratio, exercise capacity, LV ejection fraction, serum creatinine, and year 5 telomere length. Mortality occurred in 39% (79/203) of patients who experienced telomere shortening, 22% (45/203) of patients whose telomere length was maintained, and 12% (25/202) of patients who experienced telomere lengthening (p<0.001). As compared with patients whose telomere length was maintained, those who experienced telomere lengthening were 56% less likely to die (HR 0.44, 95% CI, 0.23–0.87). Conclusions In patients with coronary heart disease, an increase in leukocyte telomere length over 5 years is associated with decreased mortality. PMID:27783614

  5. Long sleep duration is associated with higher mortality in older people independent of frailty: a 5-year cohort study.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jenny S W; Auyeung, T W; Leung, Jason; Chan, Dicken; Kwok, Timothy; Woo, Jean; Wing, Y K

    2014-09-01

    Although general adult population studies show a U-shaped association between sleep duration and mortality, prolonged rather than short sleep duration was more consistently associated with higher mortality in older populations. Failing health or frailty is a possible mechanism. Thus, we examined the relationship among sleep duration, frailty status, and mortality in an elderly cohort. A total of 3427 community-living adults 65 years or older were examined for general health, mood, subjective sleep measures (insomnia, napping, sleep apnea, nighttime sleep duration, sleep medications), frailty, and 5-year mortality. After 5 years, 12.9% of men and 4.5% of women had died. Mean nighttime sleep duration was 7.3 hours. Proportion of participants who slept 10 or more hours increased with increasing frailty. Age-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for 5-year mortality of long nighttime sleep (≥ 10 hours) was 2.10 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-3.33) in men, and 2.70 (95% CI 0.98-7.46) in women. The HR in men was attenuated (HR 1.75; 95% CI 1.09-2.81) after adjustment for frailty and other covariates, whereas that of women strengthened (HR 2.88; 95% CI 1.01-8.18). Mortality increased sharply with nighttime sleep of 10 hours or more. Nighttime sleep of 10 or more hours (HR 1.75, men; HR 2.88, women) and frailty (HR 2.43, men; HR 2.08, P = .08 in women) were independently associated with 5-year mortality after full adjustment for covariates. Frailty and long nighttime sleep duration of 10 or more hours were independently associated with 5-year mortality in older adults. Copyright © 2014 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. [Value of E-PASS and mE-PASS in predicting morbidity and mortality of gastric cancer surgery].

    PubMed

    Liu, Ningbo; Cui, Jiangong; Zhang, Zengqiang; Zhao, Zhicheng; Li, Weidong; Fu, Weihua

    2015-10-01

    To investigate the clinical value of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) and modified Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (mE-PASS) scoring systems in predicting the mortality and surgical risk of gastric cancer patients, and to analyze the relationship between the parameters of E-PASS and early postoperative complications. Clinical data of 778 gastric cancer patients who underwent elective surgical resection in Tianjin Medical University General Hospital from Jan. 2010 to Jan. 2014 were analyzed retrospectively. E-PASS and mE-PASS scoring systems were used to predict the mortality of gastric cancer patients, respectively. Univariate and unconditioned logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the relationships between nine parameters of E-PASS system and early postoperative complications. E-PASS and mE-PASS systems were used to predict the mortality in the death group and non-death group. The Z value was -5.067 and -4.492, respectively, showing a significant difference between the two groups (P<0.05). AUCs of mortality predicted by E-PASS and mE-PASS were 0.926 and 0.878 (P>0.05), and the prediction calibration of postoperative mortality showed statistically non-significant difference (P>0.05) between the E-PASS and mE-PASS prediction and actual mortality. Univariate analysis showed that age, operation time, severe heart disease, severe lung disease, diabetes mellitus, physical state index and ASA classification score are related to postoperative complications (P<0.05 for all). Unconditioned logistic regression analysis showed that severe lung disease, diabetes mellitus, ASA classification score and operation time are risk factors for early postoperative complications (P<0.05 for all). Both mE-PASS and E-PASS scoring system have good consistency in the predicting postoperative mortality and actual mortality, and both are suitable for clinical application. Moreover, the mE-PASS scoring system is clinically more simple and

  7. Prevalence of multiple organ dysfunction in the pediatric intensive care unit: Pediatric Risk of Mortality III versus Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction scores for mortality prediction

    PubMed Central

    Hamshary, Azza Abd Elkader El; Sherbini, Seham Awad El; Elgebaly, HebatAllah Fadel; Amin, Samah Abdelkrim

    2017-01-01

    Objectives To assess the frequency of primary multiple organ failure and the role of sepsis as a causative agent in critically ill pediatric patients; and calculate and evaluate the accuracy of the Pediatric Risk of Mortality III (PRISM III) and Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction (PELOD) scores to predict the outcomes of critically ill children. Methods Retrospective study, which evaluated data from patients admitted from January to December 2011 in the pediatric intensive care unit of the Children's Hospital of the University of Cairo. Results Out of 237 patients in the study, 72% had multiple organ dysfunctions, and 45% had sepsis with multiple organ dysfunctions. The mortality rate in patients with multiple organ dysfunction was 73%. Independent risk factors for death were mechanical ventilation and neurological failure [OR: 36 and 3.3, respectively]. The PRISM III score was more accurate than the PELOD score in predicting death, with a Hosmer-Lemeshow X2 (Chi-square value) of 7.3 (df = 8, p = 0.5). The area under the curve was 0.723 for PRISM III and 0.78 for PELOD. Conclusion A multiple organ dysfunctions was associated with high mortality. Sepsis was the major cause. Pneumonia, diarrhea and central nervous system infections were the major causes of sepsis. PRISM III had a better calibration than the PELOD for prognosis of the patients, despite the high frequency of the multiple organ dysfunction syndrome.

  8. Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2017.

    PubMed

    Jung, Kyu-Won; Won, Young-Joo; Oh, Chang-Mo; Kong, Hyun-Joo; Lee, Duk Hyoung; Lee, Kang Hyun

    2017-04-01

    This study aimed to report on cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2017 in Korea in order to estimate the nation's current cancer burden. Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2014 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2015 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observe age-specific cancer rates against observed years, and then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. The Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly; we only used data of the latest trend. A total of 221,143 new cancer cases and 80,268 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2017. The most common cancer sites are the colorectum, stomach, lung, thyroid, and breast. These five cancers represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. For mortality, the most common sites are the lung, liver, colorectal, stomach, and pancreas. The incidence rate of all cancers in Korea appears to have decreased mainly because of a decrease in thyroid cancer. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluation of cancer-control programs.

  9. Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2017

    PubMed Central

    Jung, Kyu-Won; Won, Young-Joo; Oh, Chang-Mo; Kong, Hyun-Joo; Lee, Duk Hyoung; Lee, Kang Hyun

    2017-01-01

    Purpose This study aimed to report on cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2017 in Korea in order to estimate the nation’s current cancer burden. Materials and Methods Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2014 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2015 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observe age-specific cancer rates against observed years, and then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. The Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly; we only used data of the latest trend. Results A total of 221,143 new cancer cases and 80,268 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2017. The most common cancer sites are the colorectum, stomach, lung, thyroid, and breast. These five cancers represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. For mortality, the most common sites are the lung, liver, colorectal, stomach, and pancreas. Conclusion The incidence rate of all cancers in Korea appears to have decreased mainly because of a decrease in thyroid cancer. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluation of cancer-control programs. PMID:28301926

  10. Contemporary Mortality Risk Prediction for Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Results from 588,398 Procedures in the National Cardiovascular Data Registry

    PubMed Central

    Peterson, Eric D.; Dai, David; DeLong, Elizabeth R.; Brennan, J. Matthew; Singh, Mandeep; Rao, Sunil V.; Shaw, Richard E; Roe, Matthew T.; Ho, Kalon K. L.; Klein, Lloyd W.; Krone, Ronald J.; Weintraub, William S.; Brindis, Ralph G.; Rumsfeld, John S.; Spertus, John A.

    2014-01-01

    Objective We sought to create contemporary models for predicting mortality risk following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Background There is a need to identify PCI risk factors and accurately quantify procedural risks to facilitate comparative effectiveness research, provider comparisons, and informed patient decision making. Methods Data from 181,775 procedures performed from January 2004 to March 2006 were used to develop risk models based on pre-procedural and/or angiographic factors using logistic regression. These models were independently evaluated in two validation cohorts: contemporary (n=121,183, January 2004 to March 2006) and prospective (n=285,440, March 2006 to March 2007). Results Overall, PCI in-hospital mortality was 1.27%, ranging from 0.65% in elective PCI to 4.81% in STEMI patients. Multiple pre-procedural clinical factors were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. Angiographic variables provided only modest incremental information to pre-procedural risk assessments. The overall NCDR model, as well as a simplified NCDR risk score (based on 8 key pre-procedure factors), had excellent discrimination (c-index 0.93 and 0.91, respectively). Discrimination and calibration of both risk tools were retained among specific patient subgroups, in the validation samples, and when used to estimate 30-day mortality rates among Medicare patients. Conclusions Risks for early mortality following PCI can be accurately predicted in contemporary practice. Incorporation of such risk tools should facilitate research, clinical, and policy applications. PMID:20430263

  11. Motor functioning differentially predicts mortality in men and women.

    PubMed

    Bravell, Marie Ernsth; Finkel, Deborah; Dahl Aslan, Anna; Reynolds, Chandra A; Hallgren, Jenny; Pedersen, Nancy L

    2017-09-01

    Research indicates gender differences in functional performance at advanced ages, but little is known about their impact on longevity for men and women. To derive a set of motor function factors from a battery of functional performance measures and examine their associations with mortality, incorporating possible gender interactions. Analyses were performed on the longitudinal Swedish Adoption/Twin Study of Aging (SATSA) including twenty-four assessments of motor function up to six times over a 19-year period. Three motor factors were derived from several factor analyses; fine motor, balance/upper strength, and flexibility. A latent growth curve model was used to capture longitudinal age changes in the motor factors and generated estimates of intercept at age 70 (I), rates of change before (S1) and after age 70 (S2) for each factor. Cox regression models were used to determine how gender in interaction with the motor factors was related to mortality. Females demonstrated lower functional performance in all motor functions relative to men. Cox regression survival analyses demonstrated that both balance/upper strength, and fine motor function were significantly related to mortality. Gender specific analyses revealed that this was true for women only. For men, none of the motor factors were related to mortality. Women demonstrated more difficulties in all functioning facets, and only among women were motor functioning (balance/upper strength and fine motor function) associated with mortality. These results provide evidence for the importance of considering motor functioning, and foremost observed gender differences when planning for individualized treatment and rehabilitation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Smell Loss Predicts Mortality Risk Regardless of Dementia Conversion.

    PubMed

    Ekström, Ingrid; Sjölund, Sara; Nordin, Steven; Nordin Adolfsson, Annelie; Adolfsson, Rolf; Nilsson, Lars-Göran; Larsson, Maria; Olofsson, Jonas K

    2017-06-01

    To determine whether dementia could explain the association between poor olfactory performance and mortality risk within a decade-long follow-up period. Prospective cohort study. Betula Study, Umeå, Sweden. A population-based sample of adult participants without dementia at baseline aged 40 to 90 (N = 1,774). Olfactory performance using the Scandinavian Odor-Identification Test (SOIT) and self-reported olfactory function; several social, cognitive, and medical risk factors at baseline; and incident dementia during the following decade. Within the 10-year follow-up, 411 of 1,774 (23.2%) participants had died. In a Cox model, the association between higher SOIT score and lower mortality was significant (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.74 per point interval, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.71-0.77, P < .001). The effect was attenuated, but remained significant, after controlling for age, sex, education, and health-related and cognitive variables (HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.87-0.97, P = .001). The association between SOIT score and mortality was retained after controlling for dementia conversion before death (HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.87-0.97, P = .001). Similar results were obtained for self-reported olfactory dysfunction. Poor odor identification and poor self-reported olfactory function are associated with greater likelihood of future mortality. Dementia does not attenuate the association between olfactory loss and mortality, suggesting that olfactory loss might mark deteriorating health, irrespective of dementia. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  13. Acute Kidney Injury Predicts Mortality after Charcoal Burning Suicide

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Yu-Chin; Tseng, Yi-Chia; Huang, Wen-Hung; Hsu, Ching-Wei; Weng, Cheng-Hao; Liu, Shou-Hsuan; Yang, Huang-Yu; Chen, Kuan-Hsin; Chen, Hui-Ling; Fu, Jen-Fen; Lin, Wey-Ran; Wang, I-Kuan; Yen, Tzung-Hai

    2016-01-01

    A paucity of literature exists on risk factors for mortality in charcoal burning suicide. In this observational study, we analyzed the data of 126 patients with charcoal burning suicide that seen between 2002 and 2013. Patients were grouped according to status of renal damage as acute kidney injury (N = 49) or non-acute kidney injury (N = 77). It was found that patients with acute kidney injury suffered severer complications such as respiratory failure (P = 0.002), myocardial injury (P = 0.049), hepatic injury (P < 0.001), rhabdomyolysis (P = 0.045) and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (P = 0.028) than patients without acute kidney injury. Moreover, patients with acute kidney injury suffered longer hospitalization duration (16.9 ± 18.3 versus 10.7 ± 10.9, P = 0.002) and had higher mortality rate (8.2% versus 0%, P = 0.011) than patients without injury. In a multivariate Cox regression model, it was demonstrated that serum creatinine level (P = 0.019) and heart rate (P = 0.022) were significant risk factors for mortality. Finally, Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that patients with acute kidney injury suffered lower cumulative survival than without injury (P = 0.016). In summary, the overall mortality rate of charcoal burning suicide population was 3.2%, and acute kidney injury was a powerful predictor of mortality. Further studies are warranted. PMID:27430168

  14. Predicting post-fire tree mortality for 14 conifers in the Pacific Northwest, USA: Model evaluation, development, and thresholds

    Treesearch

    Lindsay M. Grayson; Robert A. Progar; Sharon M. Hood

    2017-01-01

    Fire is a driving force in the North American landscape and predicting post-fire tree mortality is vital to land management. Post-fire tree mortality can have substantial economic and social impacts, and natural resource managers need reliable predictive methods to anticipate potential mortality following fire events. Current fire mortality models are limited to a few...

  15. CT pulmonary angiography findings that predict 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Bach, Andreas Gunter; Nansalmaa, Baasai; Kranz, Johanna; Taute, Bettina-Maria; Wienke, Andreas; Schramm, Dominik; Surov, Alexey

    2015-02-01

    Standard computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) can be used to diagnose acute pulmonary embolism. In addition, multiple findings at CTPA have been proposed as potential tools for risk stratification. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to examine the prognostic value of (I) thrombus distribution, (II) morphometric parameters of right ventricular dysfunction, and (III) contrast reflux in inferior vena cava on 30-day mortality. In a retrospective, single-center study from 06/2005 to 01/2010 365 consecutive patients were included. Inclusion criteria were: presence of acute pulmonary embolism, and availability of 30-day follow-up. A review of patient charts and images was performed. There were no significant differences between the group of 326 survivors and 39 non-survivors in (I) thrombus distribution, and (II) morphometric measurements of right ventricular dysfunction. However, (III) contrast reflux in inferior vena cava was significantly stronger in non-survivors (odds ratio 3.29; p<0.001). Results were independent from comorbidities like heart insufficiency and pulmonary hypertension. Measurement of contrast reflux is a new and robust method for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism. Obstruction scores and morphometric measurements of right ventricular dysfunction perform poor as risk stratification tools. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Aortic valve calcium independently predicts coronary and cardiovascular events in a primary prevention population.

    PubMed

    Owens, David S; Budoff, Matthew J; Katz, Ronit; Takasu, Junichiro; Shavelle, David M; Carr, J Jeffrey; Heckbert, Susan R; Otto, Catherine M; Probstfield, Jeffrey L; Kronmal, Richard A; O'Brien, Kevin D

    2012-06-01

    This study sought to test whether aortic valve calcium (AVC) is independently associated with coronary and cardiovascular events in a primary-prevention population. Aortic sclerosis is associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality among the elderly, but the mechanisms underlying this association remain controversial. Also, it is unknown whether this association extends to younger individuals. We performed a prospective analysis of 6,685 participants in MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). All subjects, ages 45 to 84 years and free of clinical cardiovascular disease at baseline, underwent computed tomography for AVC and coronary artery calcium scoring. The primary, pre-specified combined endpoint of cardiovascular events included myocardial infarctions, fatal and nonfatal strokes, resuscitated cardiac arrest, and cardiovascular death, whereas a secondary combined endpoint of coronary events excluded strokes. The association between AVC and clinical events was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression with incremental adjustments for demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, inflammatory biomarkers, and subclinical coronary atherosclerosis. Over a median follow-up of 5.8 years (interquartile range: 5.6 to 5.9 years), adjusting for demographics and cardiovascular risk factors, subjects with AVC (n = 894, 13.4%) had higher risks of cardiovascular (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.50; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10 to 2.03) and coronary (HR: 1.72; 95% CI: 1.19 to 2.49) events compared with those without AVC. Adjustments for inflammatory biomarkers did not alter these associations, but adjustment for coronary artery calcium substantially attenuated both cardiovascular (HR: 1.32; 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.78) and coronary (HR: 1.41; 95% CI: 0.98 to 2.02) event risk. AVC remained predictive of cardiovascular mortality even after full adjustment (HR: 2.51; 95% CI: 1.22 to 5.21). In this MESA cohort, free of clinical cardiovascular disease, AVC predicts

  17. External validation of a biomarker and clinical prediction model for hospital mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Zhiguo; Wickersham, Nancy; Kangelaris, Kirsten N; May, Addison K; Bernard, Gordon R; Matthay, Michael A; Calfee, Carolyn S; Koyama, Tatsuki; Ware, Lorraine B

    2017-08-01

    Mortality prediction in ARDS is important for prognostication and risk stratification. However, no prediction models have been independently validated. A combination of two biomarkers with age and APACHE III was superior in predicting mortality in the NHLBI ARDSNet ALVEOLI trial. We validated this prediction tool in two clinical trials and an observational cohort. The validation cohorts included 849 patients from the NHLBI ARDSNet Fluid and Catheter Treatment Trial (FACTT), 144 patients from a clinical trial of sivelestat for ARDS (STRIVE), and 545 ARDS patients from the VALID observational cohort study. To evaluate the performance of the prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), model discrimination, and calibration were assessed, and recalibration methods were applied. The biomarker/clinical prediction model performed well in all cohorts. Performance was better in the clinical trials with an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79) in FACTT, compared to 0.72 (95% CI 0.67-0.77) in VALID, a more heterogeneous observational cohort. The AUC was 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.76) when FACTT and VALID were combined. We validated a mortality prediction model for ARDS that includes age, APACHE III, surfactant protein D, and interleukin-8 in a variety of clinical settings. Although the model performance as measured by AUC was lower than in the original model derivation cohort, the biomarker/clinical model still performed well and may be useful for risk assessment for clinical trial enrollment, an issue of increasing importance as ARDS mortality declines, and better methods are needed for selection of the most severely ill patients for inclusion.

  18. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection: an independent risk factor for mortality in patients with poststernotomy mediastinitis.

    PubMed

    Simşek Yavuz, Serap; Sensoy, Ayfer; Ceken, Sabahat; Deniz, Denef; Yekeler, Ibrahim

    2014-01-01

    The mortality rate of patients with poststernotomy mediastinitis remains very high. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with mortality in these patients. Surveillance of sternal surgical-site infections including mediastinitis was carried out for adult patients undergoing a sternotomy between 2004 and 2012. Criteria from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were used to make the diagnosis. All data on patients with a diagnosis of mediastinitis who were included in the study and on mortality risk factors were obtained from the hospital database and then analyzed using SPPS 16.0 for Windows. Of the 19,767 patients undergoing open heart surgery, 117 (0.39%) had poststernotomy mediastinitis; 32% of these 117 died. The independent risk factors for mortality were methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) [odds ratio (OR) 12.11 and 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.15-46.47], intensive-care unit stays >48 h after the first operation (OR 11.21 and 95% CI 3.24-38.84) and surgery that included valve replacement (OR 6.2 and 95% CI 1.44-27.13). The mortality rate decreased significantly, dropping from 38% (34/89) between 2004 and 2008 to 14% (4/28) between 2009 and 2012 (p = 0.018). In this study, elimination of MRSA from the hospital setting decreased the rate of mortality in patients with poststernotomy mediastinitis. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  19. A biological approach to the interspecies prediction of radiation-induced mortality risk

    SciTech Connect

    Carnes, B.A.; Grahn, D.; Olshansky, S.J.

    1997-08-01

    Evolutionary explanations for why sexually reproducing organisms grow old suggest that the forces of natural selection affect the ages when diseases occur that are subject to a genetic influence (referred to here as intrinsic diseases). When extended to the population level for a species, this logic leads to the general prediction that age-specific death rates from intrinsic causes should begin to rise as the force of selection wanes once the characteristic age of sexual maturity is attained. Results consistent with these predictions have been found for laboratory mice, beagles, and humans where, after adjusting for differences in life span, it was demonstrated that these species share a common age pattern of mortality for intrinsic causes of death. In quantitative models used to predict radiation-induced mortality, risks are often expressed as multiples of those observed in a control population. A control population, however, is an aging population. As such, mortality risks related to exposure must be interpreted relative to the age-specific risk of death associated with aging. Given the previous success in making interspecies predictions of age-related mortality, the purpose of this study was to determine whether radiation-induced mortality observed in one species could also be predicted quantitatively from a model used to describe the mortality consequences of exposure to radiation in a different species. Mortality data for B6CF{sub 1} mice and beagles exposed to {sup 60}Co {gamma}-rays for the duration of life were used for analysis.

  20. High levels of both serum gamma-glutamyl transferase and alkaline phosphatase are independent preictors of mortality in patients with stage 4-5 chronic kidney disease.

    PubMed

    Caravaca-Fontán, Fernando; Azevedo, Lilia; Bayo, Miguel Ángel; Gonzales-Candia, Boris; Luna, Enrique; Caravaca, Francisco

    High serum gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) levels are associated with increased mortality in the general population. However, this association has scarcely been investigated in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aims to investigate the clinical characteristics of CKD patients with abnormally elevated serum GGT, and its value for predicting mortality. Retrospective observational study in a population cohort of adults with stage 4-5 CKD not yet on dialysis. Demographic, clinical, and biochemical parameters of prognostic interest were recorded and used to characterise CKD patients with high levels of GGT (>36 IU/l). Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to analyse the influence of baseline serum GGT and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels on mortality for whatever reason. The study group consisted of 909 patients (mean age 65±15 years). Abnormally elevated GGT or ALP levels at baseline were observed in 209 (23%) and 172 (19%) patients, respectively, and concomitant elevations of GGT and ALP in 68 (7%). High GGT levels were associated with higher comorbidity burden, and a biochemical profile characterised by higher serum concentration of uric acid, triglycerides, alanine aminotransferase, ferritin, and C-reactive. During the study period, 365 patients (40%) died (median survival time=74 months). In adjusted Cox regression models, high levels of GGT (hazard ratio [HR]=1.39;CI 95%: 1.09-1.78, P=.009) and ALP (HR=1.31; CI95%: 1.02-1.68, P=.038) were independently associated with mortality. High serum levels of GGT are independent predictors of mortality in CKD patients. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  1. Abdominal aortic calcification is not superior over other vascular calcification in predicting mortality in hemodialysis patients: a retrospective observational study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) guidelines recommend that a lateral abdominal radiograph should be performed to assess vascular calcification (VC) in dialysis patients. However, abdominal aortic calcification is a prevalent finding, and it remains unclear whether other anatomical areas of VC can predict mortality more accurately. Methods A total of 217 maintenance hemodialysis patients were enrolled at the Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital between July 2010 and March 2011. Radiographs of the abdomen, pelvis and hands were evaluated by a radiologist to evaluate the presence of VC. The correlation between different areas of VC and all-cause or cardiovascular mortality was analyzed using univariate and multivariate models. Results The prevalence of VC was 70.0% (152 patients), and most had abdominal aortic calcification (90.1%). During 26 ± 7 months of follow-up, 37 patients died. The VC score was independently associated with patient mortality. VC observed on abdominal radiographs (abdominal aortic calcification) was associated with all-cause mortality in models adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors (HR, 4.69; 95%CI, 1.60-13.69) and dialysis factors (HR, 3.38; 95%CI, 1.18-9.69). VC in the pelvis or hands was associated with all-cause mortality in the model adjusted for dialysis factors. When three combinations of VC in different radiographs were included in models, the presence of abdominal VC was only significantly associated with all-cause mortality in the integrated model. VC in the abdomen and pelvis was associated with all-cause mortality in the model adjusted for cardiovascular factors and the integrated model, but neither was significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality. VC in all radiographs was significantly associated with a more than 6-fold risk of all-cause mortality and a more than 5-fold risk of cardiovascular mortality compared to patients without VC. Conclusions VC in different arteries as shown on

  2. Abdominal aortic calcification is not superior over other vascular calcification in predicting mortality in hemodialysis patients: a retrospective observational study.

    PubMed

    Hong, Daqing; Wu, Shukun; Pu, Lei; Wang, Fang; Wang, Junru; Wang, Zhengtong; Gao, Hui; Zhang, Yue; Deng, Fei; Li, Guisen; He, Qiang; Wang, Li

    2013-06-05

    KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) guidelines recommend that a lateral abdominal radiograph should be performed to assess vascular calcification (VC) in dialysis patients. However, abdominal aortic calcification is a prevalent finding, and it remains unclear whether other anatomical areas of VC can predict mortality more accurately. A total of 217 maintenance hemodialysis patients were enrolled at the Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital between July 2010 and March 2011. Radiographs of the abdomen, pelvis and hands were evaluated by a radiologist to evaluate the presence of VC. The correlation between different areas of VC and all-cause or cardiovascular mortality was analyzed using univariate and multivariate models. The prevalence of VC was 70.0% (152 patients), and most had abdominal aortic calcification (90.1%). During 26 ± 7 months of follow-up, 37 patients died. The VC score was independently associated with patient mortality. VC observed on abdominal radiographs (abdominal aortic calcification) was associated with all-cause mortality in models adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors (HR, 4.69; 95%CI, 1.60-13.69) and dialysis factors (HR, 3.38; 95%CI, 1.18-9.69). VC in the pelvis or hands was associated with all-cause mortality in the model adjusted for dialysis factors. When three combinations of VC in different radiographs were included in models, the presence of abdominal VC was only significantly associated with all-cause mortality in the integrated model. VC in the abdomen and pelvis was associated with all-cause mortality in the model adjusted for cardiovascular factors and the integrated model, but neither was significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality. VC in all radiographs was significantly associated with a more than 6-fold risk of all-cause mortality and a more than 5-fold risk of cardiovascular mortality compared to patients without VC. VC in different arteries as shown on radiographs is associated with different

  3. Systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria and the prediction of hospital mortality in critically ill patients: a retrospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Taniguchi, Leandro Utino; Pires, Ellen Maria Campos; Vieira, José Mauro; Azevedo, Luciano Cesar Pontes de

    2017-09-28

    This study intended to determine whether the systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria can predict hospital mortality in a Brazilian cohort of critically ill patients. We performed a retrospective cohort study at a private tertiary hospital in São Paulo (SP), Brazil. We extracted information from the adult intensive care unit database (Sistema EpimedTM). We compared the SAPS 3 and the systemic inflammatory response syndrome model as dichotomous (≥ 2 criteria: systemic inflammatory response syndrome -positive versus 0 - 1 criterion: systemic inflammatory response syndrome -negative) and ordinal variables from 0 to 4 (according to the number of systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria met) in the prediction of hospital mortality at intensive care unit admission. Model discrimination was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve. From January to December 2012, we studied 932 patients (60.4% were systemic inflammatory response syndrome -positive). systemic inflammatory response syndrome -positive patients were more critically ill than systemic inflammatory response syndrome -negative patients and had higher hospital mortality (16.9% versus 8.1%, p < 0.001). In the adjusted analysis, being systemic inflammatory response syndrome -positive independently increased the risk of death by 82% (odds ratio 1.82; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12 - 2.96, p = 0.016). However, the AUROC curve for the SAPS 3 model was higher (0.81, 95%CI 0.78 - 0.85) compared to the systemic inflammatory response syndrome model with the systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria as a dichotomous variable (0.60, 95%CI 0.55 - 0.65) and as an ordinal variable (0.62, 95%CI 0.57 - 0.68; p < 0.001) for hospital mortality. Although systemic inflammatory response syndrome is associated with hospital mortality, the systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria show low accuracy in the prediction of mortality compared with the SAPS 3.

  4. Risk prediction for perioperative mortality of endovascular versus open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms using the Medicare population

    PubMed Central

    Giles, Kristina A.; Schermerhorn, Marc L.; O’Malley, A. James; Cotterill, Philip; Jhaveri, Ami; Pomposelli, Frank; Landon, Bruce E.

    2009-01-01

    INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES The impact of risk factors upon perioperative mortality might differ for patients undergoing open versus endovascular repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). In order to investigate this, we developed a differential predictive model of perioperative mortality after AAA repair. METHODS A total of 45,660 propensity score matched Medicare beneficiaries undergoing elective open or endovascular AAA repair from 2001–2004 were studied. Using half the dataset we developed a multiple logistic regression model for a matched cohort of open and EVAR patients and used this to derive an easily evaluable risk prediction score. The remainder of the dataset formed a validation cohort used to confirm results. RESULTS The derivation cohort included 11,415 open and 11,415 endovascular repairs. Perioperative mortality was 5.3% and 1.8% respectively. Independent predictors of mortality (RR, 95% CI) were open repair (3.2, 2.7–3.8), age (71–75 years 1.2, 0.9–1.6; 76–80 years 1.9, 1.4–2.5; >80 years 3.1, 2.4–4.2), female sex (1.5, 1.3–1.8), dialysis (2.6, 1.5–4.6), chronic renal insufficiency (2.0, 1.6–2.6), congestive heart failure (1.7, 1.5–2.1), and vascular disease (1.3, 1.2–1.6). There were no differential predictors of mortality across the two procedures. A simple scoring system was developed from a logistic regression model fit to both endovascular and open patients (area under the ROC curve of 72.6) from which low, medium, and high risk groups were developed. The absolute predicted mortality ranged from 0.7% for an EVAR patient ≤ 70 years of age with no comorbidities to 38% for an open patient > 80 with all the comorbidities considered. Although relative risk was similar among age groups, the absolute difference was greater for older patients (with higher baseline risk). CONCLUSIONS Mortality after AAA repair is predicted by comorbidities, sex, and age and these predictors have similar effects for both methods of AAA

  5. Preoperative hypernatremia predicts increased perioperative morbidity and mortality.

    PubMed

    Leung, Alexander A; McAlister, Finlay A; Finlayson, Samuel R G; Bates, David W

    2013-10-01

    The prognostic implications of preoperative hypernatremia are unknown. We sought to determine whether preoperative hypernatremia is a predictor of 30-day perioperative morbidity and mortality. We conducted a cohort study using the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program and identified 908,869 adult patients undergoing major surgery from approximately 300 hospitals from the years 2005 to 2010. We followed the patients for 30-day perioperative outcomes, which included death, major coronary events, wound infections, pneumonia, and venous thromboembolism. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of 30-day perioperative outcomes. The 20,029 patients (2.2%) with preoperative hypernatremia (>144 mmol/L) were compared with the 888,840 patients with a normal baseline sodium (135-144 mmol/L). Hypernatremia was associated with a higher odds for 30-day mortality (5.2% vs 1.3%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-1.56), and this finding was consistent in all subgroups. The odds increased according to the severity of hypernatremia (P < .001 for pairwise comparison for mild [145-148 mmol/L] vs severe [>148 mmol/L] categories). Furthermore, hypernatremia was associated with a greater odds for perioperative major coronary events (1.6% vs 0.7%; aOR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.03-1.32), pneumonia (3.4% vs 1.5%; aOR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.13-1.34), and venous thromboembolism (1.8% vs 0.9%; OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.14-1.42). Preoperative hypernatremia is associated with increased perioperative 30-day morbidity and mortality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Right and left heart dysfunction predict mortality in pulmonary hypertension.

    PubMed

    Henein, Michael Y; Grönlund, Christer; Tossavainen, Erik; Söderberg, Stefan; Gonzalez, Manuel; Lindqvist, Per

    2017-01-01

    In pulmonary hypertension (PH), the right heart dysfunction is a strong predictor of adverse clinical outcome, while the role of the left heart is not fully determined. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of mortality in precapillary PH including measures of both right and left heart function. We studied 34 patients (mean age 64 ± 13, range 31-82 years, 24 females) with precapillary PH, all of whom underwent detailed Doppler echocardiographic examination of the right and left heart function using conventional and speckle-tracking echocardiography. Patients were followed up for up to 8 years (mean 4·2 ± 1·9 years). At follow-up, 16 patients survived. Left ventricular (LV) filling time (P = 0·007), pulmonary artery acceleration time (P = 0·009), right atrial pressure (RAP) (P<0·001) and tricuspid regurgitation (TR) severity (P = 0·007) were worse in the deceased group. RV global longitudinal strain (GLS) (P = 0·001), RAP (P≤0·001), LV filling time (P<0·001) and TR severity (P<0·001) were the most accurate predictors, having the largest AUC (>0·65) and carried the highest risk for mortality (P<0·001 for all). The strongest predictors of mortality in precapillary PH indirectly reflect both left and right heart dysfunction including atrial structure and function disturbances. While an interaction pattern is observed, it needs to be confirmed in a larger cohort. © 2015 Scandinavian Society of Clinical Physiology and Nuclear Medicine. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Echocardiographic Assessment of Estimated Right Atrial Pressure and Size Predicts Mortality in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

    PubMed Central

    Austin, Christopher; Alassas, Khadija; Burger, Charles; Safford, Robert; Pagan, Ricardo; Duello, Katherine; Kumar, Preetham; Zeiger, Tonya

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Elevated mean right atrial pressure (RAP) measured by cardiac catheterization is an independent risk factor for mortality. Prior studies have demonstrated a modest correlation with invasive and noninvasive echocardiographic RAP, but the prognostic impact of estimated right atrial pressure (eRAP) has not been previously evaluated in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 121 consecutive patients with PAH based on right-sided heart catheterization and echocardiography was performed. The eRAP was calculated by inferior vena cava diameter and collapse using 2005 and 2010 American Society of Echocardiography (ASE) definitions. Accuracy and correlation of eRAP to RAP was assessed. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis by eRAP, right atrial area, and Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-term PAH Disease Management (REVEAL Registry) risk criteria as well as univariate and multivariate analysis of echocardiographic findings was performed. RESULTS: Elevation of eRAP was associated with decreased survival time compared with lower eRAP (P < .001, relative risk = 7.94 for eRAP > 15 mm Hg vs eRAP ≤ 5 mm Hg). Univariate analysis of echocardiographic parameters including eRAP > 15 mm Hg, right atrial area > 18 cm2, presence of pericardial effusion, right ventricular fractional area change < 35%, and at least moderate tricuspid regurgitation was predictive of poor survival. However, multivariate analysis revealed that eRAP > 15 mm Hg was the only echocardiographic risk factor that was predictive of mortality (hazard ratio = 2.28, P = .037). CONCLUSIONS: Elevation of eRAP by echocardiography at baseline assessment was strongly associated with increased risk of death or transplant in patients with PAH. This measurement may represent an important prognostic component in the comprehensive echocardiographic evaluation of PAH. PMID:25211049

  8. Elevated Plasma Vitamin B12 Concentrations Are Independent Predictors of In-Hospital Mortality in Adult Patients at Nutritional Risk.

    PubMed

    Cappello, Silvia; Cereda, Emanuele; Rondanelli, Mariangela; Klersy, Catherine; Cameletti, Barbara; Albertini, Riccardo; Magno, Daniela; Caraccia, Marilisa; Turri, Annalisa; Caccialanza, Riccardo

    2016-12-23

    Background: Elevated plasma vitamin B12 concentrations were identified as predictors of mortality in patients with oncologic, hepatic and renal diseases, and in elderly and critically ill medical patients. The association between vitamin B12 concentrations and in-hospital mortality in adult patients at nutritional risk has not been assessed. Methods: In this five-year prospective study, we investigated whether high vitamin B12 concentrations (>1000 pg/mL) are associated with in-hospital mortality in 1373 not-bed-ridden adult patients at nutritional risk (Nutrition Risk Index <97.5), admitted to medical and surgical departments. Results: Three hundred and ninety-six (28.8%) patients presented vitamin B12 > 1000 pg/mL. Two hundred and four patients died in the hospital (14.9%). The adjusted odds ratio of in-hospital mortality in patients with high vitamin B12 was 2.20 (95% CI, 1.56-3.08; p < 0.001); it was independent of age, gender, body mass index, six-month previous unintentional weight loss, admission ward, presence of malignancy, renal function, C-reactive protein and prealbumin. Patients with high vitamin B12 also had a longer length of stay (LOS) than those with normal concentrations (median 25 days, (IQR 15-41) versus 23 days (IQR 14-36); p = 0.014), and elevated vitamin B12 was an independent predictor of LOS (p = 0.027). Conclusions: An independent association between elevated vitamin B12 concentrations, mortality and LOS was found in our sample of hospitalized adult patients at nutritional risk. Although the underlying mechanisms are still unknown and any cause-effect relation cannot be inferred, clinicians should be aware of the potential negative impact of high vitamin B12 concentrations in hospitalized patients at nutritional risk and avoid inappropriate vitamin supplementation.

  9. Elevated Plasma Vitamin B12 Concentrations Are Independent Predictors of In-Hospital Mortality in Adult Patients at Nutritional Risk

    PubMed Central

    Cappello, Silvia; Cereda, Emanuele; Rondanelli, Mariangela; Klersy, Catherine; Cameletti, Barbara; Albertini, Riccardo; Magno, Daniela; Caraccia, Marilisa; Turri, Annalisa; Caccialanza, Riccardo

    2016-01-01

    Background: Elevated plasma vitamin B12 concentrations were identified as predictors of mortality in patients with oncologic, hepatic and renal diseases, and in elderly and critically ill medical patients. The association between vitamin B12 concentrations and in-hospital mortality in adult patients at nutritional risk has not been assessed. Methods: In this five-year prospective study, we investigated whether high vitamin B12 concentrations (>1000 pg/mL) are associated with in-hospital mortality in 1373 not-bed-ridden adult patients at nutritional risk (Nutrition Risk Index <97.5), admitted to medical and surgical departments. Results: Three hundred and ninety-six (28.8%) patients presented vitamin B12 > 1000 pg/mL. Two hundred and four patients died in the hospital (14.9%). The adjusted odds ratio of in-hospital mortality in patients with high vitamin B12 was 2.20 (95% CI, 1.56–3.08; p < 0.001); it was independent of age, gender, body mass index, six-month previous unintentional weight loss, admission ward, presence of malignancy, renal function, C-reactive protein and prealbumin. Patients with high vitamin B12 also had a longer length of stay (LOS) than those with normal concentrations (median 25 days, (IQR 15–41) versus 23 days (IQR 14–36); p = 0.014), and elevated vitamin B12 was an independent predictor of LOS (p = 0.027). Conclusions: An independent association between elevated vitamin B12 concentrations, mortality and LOS was found in our sample of hospitalized adult patients at nutritional risk. Although the underlying mechanisms are still unknown and any cause-effect relation cannot be inferred, clinicians should be aware of the potential negative impact of high vitamin B12 concentrations in hospitalized patients at nutritional risk and avoid inappropriate vitamin supplementation. PMID:28025528

  10. Mortality of Inshore Marine Mammals in Eastern Australia Is Predicted by Freshwater Discharge and Air Temperature

    PubMed Central

    Meager, Justin J.; Limpus, Colin

    2014-01-01

    Understanding environmental and climatic drivers of natural mortality of marine mammals is critical for managing populations effectively and for predicting responses to climate change. Here we use a 17-year dataset to demonstrate a clear relationship between environmental forcing and natural mortality of inshore marine mammals across a subtropical-tropical coastline spanning a latitudinal gradient of 13° (>2000 km of coastline). Peak mortality of inshore dolphins and dugongs followed sustained periods of elevated freshwater discharge (9 months) and low air temperature (3 months). At a regional scale, these results translated into a strong relationship between annual mortality and an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The number of cyclones crossing the coastline had a comparatively weak effect on inshore marine mammal mortality, and only in the tropics. Natural mortality of offshore/migratory cetaceans was not predicted by freshwater discharge, but was related to lagged air temperature. These results represent the first quantitative link between environmental forcing and marine mammal mortality in the tropics, and form the basis of a predictive tool for managers to prepare responses to periods of elevated marine mammal mortality. PMID:24740149

  11. Mortality of inshore marine mammals in eastern Australia is predicted by freshwater discharge and air temperature.

    PubMed

    Meager, Justin J; Limpus, Colin

    2014-01-01

    Understanding environmental and climatic drivers of natural mortality of marine mammals is critical for managing populations effectively and for predicting responses to climate change. Here we use a 17-year dataset to demonstrate a clear relationship between environmental forcing and natural mortality of inshore marine mammals across a subtropical-tropical coastline spanning a latitudinal gradient of 13° (>2000 km of coastline). Peak mortality of inshore dolphins and dugongs followed sustained periods of elevated freshwater discharge (9 months) and low air temperature (3 months). At a regional scale, these results translated into a strong relationship between annual mortality and an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The number of cyclones crossing the coastline had a comparatively weak effect on inshore marine mammal mortality, and only in the tropics. Natural mortality of offshore/migratory cetaceans was not predicted by freshwater discharge, but was related to lagged air temperature. These results represent the first quantitative link between environmental forcing and marine mammal mortality in the tropics, and form the basis of a predictive tool for managers to prepare responses to periods of elevated marine mammal mortality.

  12. Development and validation of a prognostic score to predict mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

    PubMed

    Jalan, Rajiv; Saliba, Faouzi; Pavesi, Marco; Amoros, Alex; Moreau, Richard; Ginès, Pere; Levesque, Eric; Durand, Francois; Angeli, Paolo; Caraceni, Paolo; Hopf, Corinna; Alessandria, Carlo; Rodriguez, Ezequiel; Solis-Muñoz, Pablo; Laleman, Wim; Trebicka, Jonel; Zeuzem, Stefan; Gustot, Thierry; Mookerjee, Rajeshwar; Elkrief, Laure; Soriano, German; Cordoba, Joan; Morando, Filippo; Gerbes, Alexander; Agarwal, Banwari; Samuel, Didier; Bernardi, Mauro; Arroyo, Vicente

    2014-11-01

    Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a frequent syndrome (30% prevalence), characterized by acute decompensation of cirrhosis, organ failure(s) and high short-term mortality. This study develops and validates a specific prognostic score for ACLF patients. Data from 1349 patients included in the CANONIC study were used. First, a simplified organ function scoring system (CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score, CLIF-C OFs) was developed to diagnose ACLF using data from all patients. Subsequently, in 275 patients with ACLF, CLIF-C OFs and two other independent predictors of mortality (age and white blood cell count) were combined to develop a specific prognostic score for ACLF (CLIF Consortium ACLF score [CLIF-C ACLFs]). A concordance index (C-index) was used to compare the discrimination abilities of CLIF-C ACLF, MELD, MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), and Child-Pugh (CPs) scores. The CLIF-C ACLFs was validated in an external cohort and assessed for sequential use. The CLIF-C ACLFs showed a significantly higher predictive accuracy than MELDs, MELD-Nas, and CPs, reducing (19-28%) the corresponding prediction error rates at all main time points after ACLF diagnosis (28, 90, 180, and 365 days) in both the CANONIC and the external validation cohort. CLIF-C ACLFs computed at 48 h, 3-7 days, and 8-15 days after ACLF diagnosis predicted the 28-day mortality significantly better than at diagnosis. The CLIF-C ACLFs at ACLF diagnosis is superior to the MELDs and MELD-Nas in predicting mortality. The CLIF-C ACLFs is a clinically relevant, validated scoring system that can be used sequentially to stratify the risk of mortality in ACLF patients. Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Amiodarone-Induced Cirrhosis of Liver: What Predicts Mortality?

    PubMed Central

    Hussain, Nasir

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. Amiodarone has been used for more than 5 decades for the treatment of various tachyarrhythmias and previously for the treatment of refractory angina. There are multiple well-established side effects of amiodarone. However, amiodarone-induced cirrhosis (AIC) of liver is an underrecognized complication. Methods. A systematic search of Medline from January 1970 to November 2012 by using the following terms, amiodarone and cirrhosis, identified 37 reported cases of which 30 were used in this analysis. Patients were divided into 2 subsets, survivors versus nonsurvivors, at 5 months. Results. Aspartate aminotransferase was significantly lower (P = 0.03) in patients who survived at 5-months (mean 103.33 IU/L) compared to nonsurvivors (mean 216.88 IU/L). There was no statistical difference in the levels of prothrombin time, total bilirubin, alanine aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, cumulative dose, and latency period between the two groups. The prevalence of DM, HTN, HLD, CAD, and CHF was similar in the two groups. None of the above-mentioned variables could be identified as a predictor of survival at 5 months. Conclusion. AIC carries a mortality risk of 60% at 5 months once the diagnosis is established. Further prospective studies are needed to identify predictors of AIC and of mortality or survival in cases of AIC. PMID:23577267

  14. TV viewing time is associated with increased all-cause mortality in Brazilian adults independent of physical activity.

    PubMed

    Turi, Bruna Camilo; Monteiro, Henrique Luiz; Ribeiro Lemes, Ítalo; Codogno, Jamile Sanches; Lynch, Kyle Robinson; Asahi Mesquita, Camila Angélica; Fernandes, Rômulo Araújo

    2017-03-22

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between television (TV) viewing and all-cause mortality among Brazilian adults after six years of follow-up. This longitudinal study started in 2010 in the city of Bauru, SP, Brazil, and involved 970 adults aged ≥ 50 years. Mortality was reported by relatives and confirmed in medical records of the Brazilian National Health System. Physical activity (PA) and TV viewing were assessed by the Baecke questionnaire. Health status, sociodemographic and behavioural covariates were considered as potential confounders. After six years of follow-up, 89 deaths were registered (9.2% [95%CI= 7.4% to 11%]). Type 2 diabetes mellitus was associated with higher risk of mortality (p-value= 0.012). Deaths correlated significantly with age (rho= 0.188; p-value= 0.001), overall PA score (rho= -0.128; p-value= 0.001) and TV viewing (rho= 0.086; p-value= 0.007). Lower percentage of participants reported TV viewing time as often (16%) and very often (5.7%), but there was an association between higher TV viewing time ("often" and "very often" grouped together) and increased mortality after six years of follow-up (p-value= 0.006). The higher TV viewing time was associated with a 44.7% increase in all-cause mortality (HR= 1.447 [1.019 to 2.055]), independently of other potential confounders. In conclusion, the findings from this cohort study identified increased risk of mortality among adults with higher TV viewing time, independently of physical activity and other variables. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  15. Metabolic syndrome is independently associated with increased 20-year mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease.

    PubMed

    Younis, Arwa; Younis, Anan; Tzur, Boaz; Peled, Yael; Shlomo, Nir; Goldenberg, Ilan; Fisman, Enrique Z; Tenenbaum, Alexander; Klempfner, Robert

    2016-10-28

    Data regarding long-term association of metabolic syndrome (MetS) with adverse outcomes are conflicting. We aim to determine the independent association of MetS (based on its different definitions) with 20 year all-cause mortality among patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD). Our study comprised 15,524 patients who were enrolled in the Bezafibrate Infarction Prevention registry between February 1, 1990, and October 31, 1992, and subsequently followed-up for the long-term mortality through December 31, 2014. MetS was defined according to two definitions: The International Diabetes Federation (IDF); and the National Cholesterol Education Program-Third Adult Treatment Panel (NCEP). According to the IDF criteria 2122 (14%) patients had MetS, whereas according to the NCEP definition 7446 (48%) patients had MetS. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that all-cause mortality was significantly higher among patients with MetS defined by both the IDF (67 vs. 61%; log rank-p < 0.001) as well as NCEP (67 vs. 54%; log rank-p < 0.001) criteria. Multivariate adjusted mortality risk was 17% greater [Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.17; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.07-1.28] in patients with MetS according to IDF and 21% (HR 1.21; 95% CI 1.13-1.29) using the NCEP definition. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that long-term increased mortality risk associated with MetS was consistent among most clinical subgroups excepted patients with renal failure (p value for interaction < 0.05). Metabolic syndrome is independently associated with an increased 20-year all-cause mortality risk among patients with stable CAD. This association was consistent when either the IDF or NCEP definitions were used. Trial registration retrospective registered.

  16. Predicting mortality in hospitalized patients with 2009 H1N1 influenza pneumonia.

    PubMed

    Riquelme, R; Jiménez, P; Videla, A J; Lopez, H; Chalmers, J; Singanayagam, A; Riquelme, M; Peyrani, P; Wiemken, T; Arbo, G; Benchetrit, G; Rioseco, M L; Ayesu, K; Klotchko, A; Marzoratti, L; Raya, M; Figueroa, S; Saavedra, F; Pryluka, D; Inzunza, C; Torres, A; Alvare, P; Fernandez, P; Barros, M; Gomez, Y; Contreras, C; Rello, J; Bordon, J; Feldman, C; Arnold, F; Nakamatsu, R; Riquelme, J; Blasi, F; Aliberti, S; Cosentini, R; Lopardo, G; Gnoni, M; Welte, T; Saad, M; Guardiola, J; Ramirez, J

    2011-04-01

    Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) severity scores can identify patients at low risk for mortality who may be suitable for ambulatory care. Here, we follow the clinical course of hospitalized patients with CAP due to 2009 H1N1 influenza. To evaluate the role of CAP severity scores as predictors of mortality. This was a secondary data analysis of patients hospitalized with CAP due to 2009 H1N1 influenza confirmed by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction enrolled in the CAPO (Community-Acquired Pneumonia Organization) international cohort study. CAP severity scores PSI (Pneumonia Severity Index), CURB-65 (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥ 65 years) and CRB-65 (confusion, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥ 65 years) were calculated. Actual and predicted mortality rates were compared. A total of 37 predictor variables were evaluated to define those associated with mortality. Data from 250 patients with CAP due to 2009 H1N1 influenza were analyzed. Patients with low predicted mortality rates (0-1.5%) had actual mortality rates ranging from 2.6% to 17.5%. Obesity and wheezing were the only novel variables associated with mortality. The decision to hospitalize a patient with CAP due to 2009 H1N1 influenza should not be based on current CAP severity scores, as they underestimate mortality rates in a significant number of patients. Patients with obesity or wheezing should be considered at an increased risk for mortality.

  17. An Australian risk prediction model for 30-day mortality after isolated coronary artery bypass: the AusSCORE.

    PubMed

    Reid, Christopher; Billah, Baki; Dinh, Diem; Smith, Julian; Skillington, Peter; Yii, Michael; Seevanayagam, Seven; Mohajeri, Morteza; Shardey, Gil

    2009-10-01

    Our objective was to identify risk factors associated with 30-day mortality after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting in the Australian context and to develop a preoperative model for 30-day mortality risk prediction. Preoperative risk associated with cardiac surgery can be ascertained through a variety of risk prediction models, none of which is specific to the Australian population. Recently, it was shown that the widely used EuroSCORE model validated poorly for an Australian cohort. Hence, a valid model is required to appropriately guide surgeons and patients in assessing preoperative risk. Data from the Australasian Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons database project was used. All patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting between July 2001 and June 2005 were included for analysis. The data were divided into creation and validation sets. The data in the creation set was used to develop the model and then the model was validated in the validation set. Preoperative variables with a P value of less than .25 in chi(2) analysis were entered into multiple logistic regression analysis to develop a preoperative predictive model. Bootstrap and backward elimination methods were used to identify variables that are truly independent predictors of mortality, and 6 candidate models were identified. The Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and prediction mean square error were used to select the final model (AusSCORE) from this group of candidate models. The AusSCORE model was then validated by average receiver operating characteristic, the P value for the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and prediction mean square error obtained from n-fold validation. Over the 4-year period, 11,823 patients underwent cardiac surgery, of whom 65.9% (7709) had isolated coronary bypass procedures. The 30-day mortality rate for this group was 1.74% (134/7709). Factors selected as independent predictors in the preoperative isolated coronary bypass AusSCORE model

  18. Pediatric Cranial Vault Fractures: Analysis of Demographics, Injury Patterns, and Factors Predictive of Mortality.

    PubMed

    Adetayo, Oluwaseun A; Naran, Sanjay; Bonfield, Christopher M; Nguyen, Margaret; Chang, Yue-Fang; Pollack, Ian F; Losee, Joseph E

    2015-09-01

    Pediatric cranial vault fractures are a unique subset of injuries that pose distinct management and treatment challenges. They are anatomically distinct from their adult counterparts with potential implications on the development of the brain and craniofacial skeleton, and require unique considerations for management and treatment outcomes.A detailed analysis of the characteristics and outcomes of pediatric cranial vault fractures remains understudied in this population. Thus, the aim of this study was to characterize the demographics, injury patterns, operative interventions, concomitant injuries, and factors predictive of mortality in pediatric patients sustaining cranial vault fractures. A retrospective review of patients less than 18 years of age presenting to the emergency department of a pediatric level I trauma center between 2000 and 2005 with skull fractures was performed. All patients were included regardless of treating specialty, treatment modality, or inpatient status. Patients were stratified into 3 groups (age < = 5 yrs, 5.1-11 yrs, and >11 yrs). ZIP codes were mapped using ArcGIS 10.2 Software (ESRI Inc, Redlands, CA) with ZIP code shapefiles from ESRI's ArcGIS Online. Socioeconomic and demographic variables at the ZIP code level were linked to each geocoded location using the United States Census Bureau summary files, and spatial clusters of injury were performed using GeoDa to conduct a test of local indicator of spatial autocorrelation. Statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS version 17 (SPSS Inc, Chicago, IL). A total of 923 consecutive patients met the inclusion criteria for the study. Caucasian (P < 0.001) males (P = 0.055) were most likely to sustain cranial vault fractures. The average age at injury was 5.97 years. Falls (53.7%) were the most common cause of injury across all age groups, followed by collisions (20.8%), with falls being more common in the youngest age group (< = 5 yrs), and collisions being more

  19. Hearing, mobility, and pain predict mortality: a longitudinal population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Feeny, David; Huguet, Nathalie; McFarland, Bentson H.; Kaplan, Mark S.; Orpana, Heather; Eckstrom, Elizabeth

    2012-01-01

    Objective Measures of health-related quality of life (HRQL), including the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3) are predictive of mortality. HUI3 includes eight attributes, vision, hearing, speech, ambulation, dexterity, cognition, emotion, and pain and discomfort, with five or six levels per attribute that vary from no to severe disability. This study examined associations between individual HUI3 attributes and mortality. Study Design and Setting Baseline data and 12 years of follow-up data from a closed longitudinal cohort study, the 1994/95 Canadian National Population Health Survey, consisting of 12,375 women and men aged 18 and older. A priori hypotheses were that ambulation, cognition, emotion, and pain would predict mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied controlling for standard determinants of health and risk factors. Results Single-attribute utility scores for ambulation (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.10; 0.04–0.22), hearing (HR = 0.18; 0.06–0.57), and pain (HR = 0.53; 0.29–0.96) were statistically significantly associated with an increased risk of mortality; ambulation and hearing were predictive for the 60+ cohort. Conclusion Few studies have identified hearing or pain as risk factors for mortality. This study is innovative because it identifies specific components of HRQL that predict mortality. Further research is needed to understand better the mechanisms through which deficits in hearing and pain affect mortality risks. PMID:22521576

  20. Predicting one-year mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients: an analysis of the China Peritoneal Dialysis Registry.

    PubMed

    Cao, Xue-Ying; Zhou, Jian-Hui; Cai, Guang-Yan; Tan, Ni-Na; Huang, Jing; Xie, Xiang-Cheng; Tang, Li; Chen, Xiang-Mei

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to investigate basic clinical features of peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients, their prognostic risk factors, and to establish a prognostic model for predicting their one-year mortality. A national multi-center cohort study was performed. A total of 5,405 new PD cases from China Peritoneal Dialysis Registry in 2012 were enrolled in model group. All these patients had complete baseline data and were followed for one year. Demographic and clinical features of these patients were collected. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze prognostic risk factors and establish prognostic model. A validation group was established using 1,764 new PD cases between January 1, 2013 and July 1, 2013, and to verify accuracy of prognostic model. Results indicated that model group included 4,453 live PD cases and 371 dead cases. Multivariate survival analysis showed that diabetes mellitus (DM), residual glomerular filtration rate (rGFR), , SBP, Kt/V, high PET type and Alb were independently associated with one-year mortality. Model was statistically significant in both within-group verification and outside-group verification. In conclusion, DM, rGFR, SBP, Kt/V, high PET type and Alb were independent risk factors for short-term mortality in PD patients. Prognostic model established in this study accurately predicted risk of short-term death in PD patients.

  1. Mortality risk from comorbidities independent of triple-negative breast cancer status: NCI-SEER-based cohort analysis.

    PubMed

    Swede, Helen; Sarwar, Amna; Magge, Anil; Braithwaite, Dejana; Cook, Linda S; Gregorio, David I; Jones, Beth A; R Hoag, Jessica; Gonsalves, Lou; L Salner, Andrew; Zarfos, Kristen; Andemariam, Biree; Stevens, Richard G; G Dugan, Alicia; Pensa, Mellisa; A Brockmeyer, Jessica

    2016-05-01

    A comparatively high prevalence of comorbidities among African-American/Blacks (AA/B) has been implicated in disparate survival in breast cancer. There is a scarcity of data, however, if this effect persists when accounting for the adverse triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) subtype which occurs at threefold the rate in AA/B compared to white breast cancer patients. We reviewed charts of 214 white and 202 AA/B breast cancer patients in the NCI-SEER Connecticut Tumor Registry who were diagnosed in 2000-2007. We employed the Charlson Co-Morbidity Index (CCI), a weighted 17-item tool to predict risk of death in cancer populations. Cox survival analyses estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality in relation to TNBC and CCI adjusting for clinicopathological factors. Among patients with SEER local stage, TNBC increased the risk of death (HR 2.18, 95 % CI 1.14-4.16), which was attenuated when the CCI score was added to the model (Adj. HR 1.50, 95 % CI 0.74-3.01). Conversely, the adverse impact of the CCI score persisted when controlling for TNBC (Adj. HR 1.49, 95 % CI 1.29-1.71; per one point increase). Similar patterns were observed in SEER regional stage, but estimated HRs were lower. AA/B patients with a CCI score of ≥3 had a significantly higher risk of death compared to AA/B patients without comorbidities (Adj. HR 5.65, 95 % CI 2.90-11.02). A lower and nonsignificant effect was observed for whites with a CCI of ≥3 (Adj. HR 1.90, 95 % CI 0.68-5.29). comorbidities at diagnosis increase risk of death independent of TNBC, and AA/B patients may be disproportionately at risk.

  2. Plasma markers of inflammation and prediction of cardiovascular disease and mortality in African Americans with type 1 diabetes.

    PubMed

    Roy, Monique S; Janal, Malvin N; Crosby, Juan; Donnelly, Robert

    2016-04-01

    To determine whether plasma levels of markers of inflammation are predictive of the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), hypertension, or mortality in African Americans with type 1 diabetes mellitus. A total of 484 African Americans with type 1 diabetes were included. At baseline and 6-year follow-up, a clinical interview and examination were conducted to document CVD and systemic hypertension. Venous blood for glycated hemoglobin and cholesterol was obtained and albumin excretion rate measured. Mortality was assessed annually between baseline and 6-year follow-up by review of the social security death index. Baseline plasma levels of 28 inflammatory biomarkers were measured using multiplex bead analysis system. After adjusting for baseline age and other confounders, African Americans with type 1 diabetes in the highest quartile of plasma interferon-inducible protein 10 (IP-10) were three times more likely to develop CVD than those in the lowest quartile. African Americans with type 1 diabetes in the lowest quartiles of plasma stromal derived factor-1 (SDF-1) had a 75% higher risk of death than patients in the highest quartile, independently of age, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass index, hypertension, and albuminuria. In African Americans with type 1 diabetes, high plasma IP-10 is an independent predictor for incident CVD and low SDF-1 an independent predictor for mortality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Osteoporosis markers on low-dose lung cancer screening chest computed tomography scans predict all-cause mortality.

    PubMed

    Buckens, C F; van der Graaf, Y; Verkooijen, H M; Mali, W P; Isgum, I; Mol, C P; Verhaar, H J; Vliegenthart, R; Oudkerk, M; van Aalst, C M; de Koning, H J; de Jong, P A

    2015-01-01

    Further survival benefits may be gained from low-dose chest computed tomography (CT) by assessing vertebral fractures and bone density. We sought to assess the association between CT-measured vertebral fractures and bone density with all-cause mortality in lung cancer screening participants. Following a case-cohort design, lung cancer screening trial participants (N = 3,673) who died (N = 196) during a median follow-up of 6 years (inter-quartile range: 5.7-6.3) were identified and added to a random sample of N = 383 from the trial. We assessed vertebral fractures using Genant's semiquantative method on sagittal reconstructions and measured bone density (Hounsfield Units (HU)) in vertebrae. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to determine if vertebral fractures or bone density were independently predictive of mortality. The prevalence of vertebral fractures was 35% (95% confidence interval 30-40%) among survivors and 51% (44-58%) amongst cases. After adjusting for age, gender, smoking status, pack years smoked, coronary and aortic calcium volume and pulmonary emphysema, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for vertebral fracture was 2.04 (1.43-2.92). For each 10 HU decline in trabecular bone density, the adjusted HR was 1.08 (1.02-1.15). Vertebral fractures and bone density are independently associated with all-cause mortality. • Lung cancer screening chest computed tomography contains additional, potentially useful information. • Vertebral fractures and bone density are independently predictive of mortality. • This finding has implications for screening and management decisions.

  4. A 6-Point TACS Score Predicts In-Hospital Mortality Following Total Anterior Circulation Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Wood, Adrian D; Gollop, Nicholas D; Bettencourt-Silva, Joao H; Clark, Allan B; Metcalf, Anthony K; Bowles, Kristian M; Flather, Marcus D; Potter, John F

    2016-01-01

    Background and Purpose Little is known about the factors associated with in-hospital mortality following total anterior circulation stroke (TACS). We examined the characteristics and comorbidity data for TACS patients in relation to in-hospital mortality with the aim of developing a simple clinical rule for predicting the acute mortality outcome in TACS. Methods A routine data registry of one regional hospital in the UK was analyzed. The subjects were 2,971 stroke patients with TACS (82% ischemic; median age=81 years, interquartile age range=74–86 years) admitted between 1996 and 2012. Uni- and multivariate regression models were used to estimate in-hospital mortality odds ratios for the study covariates. A 6-point TACS scoring system was developed from regression analyses to predict in-hospital mortality as the outcome. Results Factors associated with in-hospital mortality of TACS were male sex [adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=1.19], age (AOR=4.96 for ≥85 years vs. <65 years), hemorrhagic subtype (AOR=1.70), nonlateralization (AOR=1.75), prestroke disability (AOR=1.73 for moderate disability vs. no symptoms), and congestive heart failure (CHF) (AOR=1.61). Risk stratification using the 6-point TACS Score [T=type (hemorrhage=1 point) and territory (nonlateralization=1 point), A=age (65–84 years=1 point, ≥85 years=2 points), C=CHF (if present=1 point), S=status before stroke (prestroke modified Rankin Scale score of 4 or 5=1 point)] reliably predicted a mortality outcome: score=0, 29.4% mortality; score=1, 46.2% mortality [negative predictive value (NPV)=70.6%, positive predictive value (PPV)=46.2%]; score=2, 64.1% mortality (NPV=70.6, PPV=64.1%); score=3, 73.7% mortality (NPV=70.6%, PPV=73.7%); and score=4 or 5, 81.2% mortality (NPV=70.6%, PPV=81.2%). Conclusions We have identified the key determinants of in-hospital mortality following TACS and derived a 6-point TACS Score that can be used to predict the prognosis of particular patients. PMID:27819414

  5. Prediction of All-Cause Mortality Based on the Direct Measurement of Intrathoracic Impedance.

    PubMed

    Zile, Michael R; Sharma, Vinod; Johnson, James W; Warman, Eduardo N; Baicu, Catalin F; Bennett, Tom D

    2016-01-01

    Intrathoracic impedance-derived OptiVol fluid index calculated using implanted devices has been shown to predict mortality; direct measurements of impedance have not been examined. We hypothesized that baseline measured impedance predicts all-cause mortality; changes in measured impedance result in a change in the predicted mortality; and the prognostic value of measured impedance is additive to the calculated OptiVol fluid index. A retrospective analysis of 146,238 patients within the Medtronic CareLink database with implanted devices was performed. Baseline measured impedance was determined using daily values averaged from month 6 to 9 after implant and were used to divide patients into tertiles: group L = low impedance, ≤ 65 ohms; group M = medium impedance, 66 to 72 ohms; group H = high impedance, ≥ 73 ohms. Change in measured impedance was determined from values averaged from month 9 to 12 post implant compared with the 6- to 9-month values. OptiVol fluid index was calculated using published methods. All-cause mortality was assessed beginning 9 months post implant; changes in mortality was assessed beginning 12 months post implant. Baseline measured impedance predicted all-cause mortality; 5-year mortality for group L was 41%, M was 29%, and H was 25%, P < 0.001 among all groups. Changes in measured impedance resulted in a change in the predicted mortality; the prognostic value of measured impedance was additive to the OptiVol fluid index. Direct measurements of intrathoracic impedance using an implanted device can be used to stratify patients at varying mortality risk. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  6. Prediction of All-Cause Mortality Based on the Direct Measurement of Intrathoracic Impedance

    PubMed Central

    Zile, Michael R.; Sharma, Vinod; Johnson, James W.; Warman, Eduardo N.; Baicu, Catalin F.; Bennett, Tom D.

    2015-01-01

    Background Intrathoracic impedance-derived OptiVol fluid index calculated using implanted devices has been shown to predict mortality; direct measurements of impedance have not been examined. We hypothesized that baseline measured impedance predicts all-cause mortality; changes in measured impedance result in a change in the predicted mortality; and the prognostic value of measured impedance is additive to the calculated OptiVol fluid index. Methods and Results A retrospective analysis of 146,238 patients within the Medtronic CareLink data base with implanted devices was performed. Baseline measured impedance was determined using daily values averaged from month 6 to 9 post implant and were used to divide patients into tertiles; Group L= Low Impedance: ≤ 65 ohms, M= Medium Impedance: 66–72 ohms, H= High Impedance: ≥ 73 ohms. Change in measured impedance was determined from values averaged from month 9 to 12 post implant compared to the 6 to 9 month values. OptiVol fluid index was calculated using published methods. All-cause mortality was assessed beginning 9 months post implant; changes in mortality beginning 12 months post implant. Baseline measured impedance predicted all-cause mortality; 5 year mortality for group L was 41%, M was 29%, H was 25%, p < 0.001 among all groups. Changes in measured impedance resulted in a change in the predicted mortality; the prognostic value of measured impedance was additive to the OptiVol fluid index. Conclusions Direct measurements of intrathoracic impedance using an implanted device can be used to stratify patients at varying mortality risk. PMID:26699393

  7. [Predictive values for mortality in pulmonary embolism, of embolic load and right/left ventricular diameter ratio, measured by computed tomography].

    PubMed

    Díaz, Juan Carlos; Ladrón de Guevara, David; Pereira, Gonzalo; Herrmann, Rodrigo; Silva, Claudio; Astorga, Erika; Llancaqueo, Marcelo

    2007-11-01

    In pulmonary embolism, the computed tomography (CT) images can be used as a prognostic index measuring the embolic load, according to the location and size of thrombus and the right/left ventricular diameter ratio. To assess the predictive value of embolic load and right/left ventricular diameter ratio for early and late mortality in acute pulmonary embolism (PTE). The pulmonary CT of 418 patients with suspected PTE was reviewed. Embolic load was assessed by three independent evaluators and the right/left ventricular diameter ratio was measured in those exams that were positive for PTE. A logistic regression analysis was done between these parameters and mortality. Reproducibility was calculated using Bland and Altman analysis. There was a high concordance between raters to calculate embolic load (r =0,95, p <0,001). Only the right/left ventricular diameter ratio and the presence were predictive of global mortality. The predictive value for embolic load was below the significance level, No parameter was predictive of early mortality. The concordance between raters for the assessment of embolic load was high in this study. However no imaging parameter had a predictive value for early mortality. The right/left ventricular diameter ratio had a predictive value for global mortality at three months.

  8. Obesity is Independently Associated With Increased Risk of Hepatocellular Cancer-related Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Arjun; Das, Avash; Majumder, Kaustav; Arora, Nivedita; Mayo, Helen G; Singh, Preet P; Beg, Muhammad S; Singh, Siddharth

    2017-05-23

    Excess body weight is associated with increased risk of developing hepatocellular cancer (HCC), but its effect on HCC-related mortality remains unclear. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the association between premorbid obesity and HCC-related mortality. Through a systematic literature search-up to March 2016, we identified 9 observational studies (1,599,453 individuals, 5705 HCC-related deaths) reporting the association between premorbid body mass index (BMI), and HCC-related mortality. We estimated summary adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), comparing obese (BMI>30 kg/m) and overweight (BMI, 25 to 29.9 kg/m) individuals with normal BMI individuals using random-effects model. On meta-analysis, compared with individuals with normal BMI, obese (aHR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.46-2.46), but not overweight individuals (aHR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.97-1.21), had higher HCC-related mortality, with moderate heterogeneity. On subgroup analysis, magnitude of increased mortality was higher in obese men (aHR, 2.50; 95% CI, 2.02-3.09; 3 studies) as compared with obese women (aHR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.08-1.97; 2 studies). The impact of premorbid obesity on HCC-related mortality was observed only in western populations (aHR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.77-2.48; 4 studies), but not Asian populations (aHR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.63-1.92; 1 study). There was limited assessment of competing risk because of advanced liver disease. On the basis of this meta-analysis, premorbid obesity may be independently associated with a 2-fold risk of HCC-related mortality. This association was more pronounced in men and western populations. Strategies targeting obesity-associated metabolic abnormalities may provide novel pathways for HCC therapy.

  9. Elevated admission international normalized ratio strongly predicts mortality in victims of abusive head trauma.

    PubMed

    Leeper, Christine M; Nasr, Isam; McKenna, Christine; Berger, Rachel P; Gaines, Barbara A

    2016-05-01

    Victims of abusive head trauma have poor outcomes compared with other injured children. There is often a delay in diagnosis because these young patients are unable to communicate with health care providers. These critically injured patients would benefit from early identification and therapy. We performed a retrospective review of our single hospital trauma registry from 2005 to 2014. All Level 1 pediatric (age 0-17 years) trauma patients who sustained abusive head trauma were included. Exclusion criteria included no admission coagulation studies, prehospital product transfusion, preexisting coagulation disorder, or death upon arrival. Primary outcome was mortality; secondary outcomes were early blood transfusion and neurosurgical intervention. Univariate analysis included Fisher's exact and Wilcoxon rank-sum testing; we then performed logistic regression modeling and calculated adjusted odds ratios (AORs) to control for known predictors of poor outcome including hypotension, hypothermia, acidosis, Injury Severity Score (ISS), and head Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score. In 101 total subjects, 35% (n = 35) had international normalized ratio (INR) of 1.3 or greater at admission. On univariate analysis, patients with coagulation dysregulation were more likely to have hypothermia, hypotension, acidosis, high ISS, and low Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score (all p < 0.05). There was no difference in age, anemia, and incidence of polytrauma. Overall mortality was 24.8% (n = 25), which varied significantly based at admission INR (60% INR ≥ 1.3 vs. 6% INR > 1.3, p < 0.001). Patients with elevated INR were also more likely to have early packed red blood cell transfusion (p = 0.003) and neurosurgical intervention (p = 0.011). In logistic regression analysis, admission INR was the strongest independent predictor of mortality, with increased odds of 3.65 (p = 0.045). AOR after controlling specifically for hypotension, hypothermia, and acidosis was 6.25 (p = 0.006), and after

  10. Sarcopenia predicts readmission and mortality in elderly patients in acute care wards: a prospective study

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Xiaoyi; Wang, Haozhong; Zhang, Lei; Hao, Qiukui; Dong, Birong

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background The aim of this study is to assess the prevalence of sarcopenia and investigate the associations between sarcopenia and long‐term mortality and readmission in a population of elderly inpatients in acute care wards. Methods We conducted a prospective observational study in the acute care wards of a teaching hospital in western China. The muscle mass was estimated according to a previously validated anthropometric equation. Handgrip strength was measured with a handheld dynamometer, and physical performance was measured via a 4 m walking test. Sarcopenia was defined according to the recommended diagnostic algorithm of the Asia Working Group for Sarcopenia. The survival status and readmission information were obtained via telephone interviews at 12, 24, and 36 months during the 3 year follow‐up period following the baseline investigation. Results Two hundred and eighty‐eight participants (mean age: 81.1 ± 6.6 years) were included. Forty‐nine participants (17.0%) were identified as having sarcopenia. This condition was similar in men and women (16.9% vs. 17.5%, respectively, P = 0.915). During the 3 year follow‐up period, 49 men (22.7%) and 9 women (16.4%) died (P = 0.307). The mortality of sarcopenic participants was significantly increased compared with non‐sarcopenic participants (40.8% vs. 17.1%, respectively, P < 0.001). After adjusting for age, sex and other confounders, sarcopenia was an independent predictor of 3 year mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.49; 95% confidential interval: 1.25–4.95) and readmission (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.81; 95% confidential interval: 1.17–2.80). Conclusions Sarcopenia, which is evaluated by a combination of anthropometric measures, gait speed, and handgrip strength, is valuable to predict hospital readmission and long‐term mortality in elderly patients in acute care wards. PMID:27896949

  11. Independence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephenson, Margaret E.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses the four planes of development and the periods of creation and crystallization within each plane. Identifies the type of independence that should be achieved by the end of the first two planes of development. Maintains that it is through individual work on the environment that one achieves independence. (KB)

  12. The Independent Action Theory of Mortality as Tested at Fort Detrick

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1963-12-01

    The independent action theory is sometimes used as an approach to all-or none dosage-effect problems instead of the more usual dosage-effect methods...independent action theory in its simplest form the assumption is that any toxic unit reaching the site of action will be effective. Each unit is believed to

  13. THE INDEPENDENT ACTION THEORY OF MORTALITY AS TESTED AT FORT DETRICK

    DTIC Science & Technology

    The independent action theory is compared with the probit and similar approaches. The basic question is the variation of susceptibility among...survival against dose and failure of estimates of virus population to conform to the dilution ratio are viewed as evidence against the independent action theory .

  14. Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with hepatic cirrhosis: clinical course and mortality prediction.

    PubMed

    Afessa, B; Kubilis, P S

    2000-02-01

    We conducted this study to describe the complications and validate the accuracy of previously reported prognostic indices in predicting the mortality of cirrhotic patients hospitalized for upper GI bleeding. This prospective, observational study included 111 consecutive hospitalizations of 85 cirrhotic patients admitted for GI bleeding. Data obtained included intensive care unit (ICU) admission status, Child-Pugh score, the development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), organ failure, and inhospital mortality. The performances of Garden's, Gatta's, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II prognostic systems in predicting mortality were assessed. Patients' mean age was 48.7 yr, and the median APACHE II and Child-Pugh scores were 17 and 9, respectively. Their ICU admission rate was 71%. Organ failure developed in 57%, and SIRS in 46% of the patients. Nine patients had acute respiratory distress syndrome, and three patients had hepatorenal syndrome. The inhospital mortality was 21%. The APACHE II, Garden's, and Gatta' s predicted mortality rates were 39%, 24%, and 20%, respectively, and their areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.78, 0.70, and 0.71, respectively. The AUC for Child-Pugh score was 0.76. SIRS and organ failure develop in many patients with hepatic cirrhosis hospitalized for upper GI bleeding, and are associated with increased mortality. Although the APACHE II prognostic system overestimated the mortality of these patients, the receiver operating characteristic curves did not show significant differences between the various prognostic systems.

  15. Predicting mortality with biomarkers: a population-based prospective cohort study for elderly Costa Ricans

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Little is known about adult health and mortality relationships outside high-income nations, partly because few datasets have contained biomarker data in representative populations. Our objective is to determine the prognostic value of biomarkers with respect to total and cardiovascular mortality in an elderly population of a middle-income country, as well as the extent to which they mediate the effects of age and sex on mortality. Methods This is a prospective population-based study in a nationally representative sample of elderly Costa Ricans. Baseline interviews occurred mostly in 2005 and mortality follow-up went through December 2010. Sample size after excluding observations with missing values: 2,313 individuals and 564 deaths. Main outcome: prospective death rate ratios for 22 baseline biomarkers, which were estimated with hazard regression models. Results Biomarkers significantly predict future death above and beyond demographic and self-reported health conditions. The studied biomarkers account for almost half of the effect of age on mortality. However, the sex gap in mortality became several times wider after controlling for biomarkers. The most powerful predictors were simple physical tests: handgrip strength, pulmonary peak flow, and walking speed. Three blood tests also predicted prospective mortality: C-reactive protein (CRP), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS). Strikingly, high blood pressure (BP) and high total cholesterol showed little or no predictive power. Anthropometric measures also failed to show significant mortality effects. Conclusions This study adds to the growing evidence that blood markers for CRP, HbA1c, and DHEAS, along with organ-specific functional reserve indicators (handgrip, walking speed, and pulmonary peak flow), are valuable tools for identifying vulnerable elderly. The results also highlight the need to better understand an anomaly noted previously in other settings: despite the

  16. Pleural cancer mortality in Spain: time-trends and updating of predictions up to 2020

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background A total of 2,514,346 metric tons (Mt) of asbestos were imported into Spain from 1906 until the ban on asbestos in 2002. Our objective was to study pleural cancer mortality trends as an indicator of mesothelioma mortality and update mortality predictions for the periods 2011–2015 and 2016–2020 in Spain. Methods Log-linear Poisson models were fitted to study the effect of age, period of death and birth cohort (APC) on mortality trends. Change points in cohort- and period-effect curvatures were assessed using segmented regression. Fractional power-link APC models were used to predict mortality until 2020. In addition, an alternative model based on national asbestos consumption figures was also used to perform long-term predictions. Results Pleural cancer deaths increased across the study period, rising from 491 in 1976–1980 to 1,249 in 2006–2010. Predictions for the five-year period 2016–2020 indicated a total of 1,319 pleural cancer deaths (264 deaths/year). Forecasts up to 2020 indicated that this increase would continue, though the age-adjusted rates showed a levelling-off in male mortality from 2001 to 2005, corresponding to the lower risk in post-1960 generations. Among women, rates were lower and the mortality trend was also different, indicating that occupational exposure was possibly the single factor having most influence on pleural cancer mortality. Conclusion The cancer mortality-related consequences of human exposure to asbestos are set to persist and remain in evidence until the last surviving members of the exposed cohorts have disappeared. It can thus be assumed that occupationally-related deaths due to pleural mesothelioma will continue to occur in Spain until at least 2040. PMID:24195451

  17. Broadly applicable risk stratification system for predicting duration of hospitalization and mortality.

    PubMed

    Sessler, Daniel I; Sigl, Jeffrey C; Manberg, Paul J; Kelley, Scott D; Schubert, Armin; Chamoun, Nassib G

    2010-11-01

    Hospitals are increasingly required to publicly report outcomes, yet performance is best interpreted in the context of population and procedural risk. We sought to develop a risk-adjustment method using administrative claims data to assess both national-level and hospital-specific performance. A total of 35,179,507 patient stay records from 2001-2006 Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (MEDPAR) files were randomly divided into development and validation sets. Risk stratification indices (RSIs) for length of stay and mortality endpoints were derived from aggregate risk associated with individual diagnostic and procedure codes. Performance of RSIs were tested prospectively on the validation database, as well as a single institution registry of 103,324 adult surgical patients, and compared with the Charlson comorbidity index, which was designed to predict 1-yr mortality. The primary outcome was the C statistic indicating the discriminatory power of alternative risk-adjustment methods for prediction of outcome measures. A single risk-stratification model predicted 30-day and 1-yr postdischarge mortality; separate risk-stratification models predicted length of stay and in-hospital mortality. The RSIs performed well on the national dataset (C statistics for median length of stay and 30-day mortality were 0.86 and 0.84). They performed significantly better than the Charlson comorbidity index on the Cleveland Clinic registry for all outcomes. The C statistics for the RSIs and Charlson comorbidity index were 0.89 versus 0.60 for median length of stay, 0.98 versus 0.65 for in-hospital mortality, 0.85 versus 0.76 for 30-day mortality, and 0.83 versus 0.77 for 1-yr mortality. Addition of demographic information only slightly improved performance of the RSI. RSI is a broadly applicable and robust system for assessing hospital length of stay and mortality for groups of surgical patients based solely on administrative data.

  18. Uric acid predicts mortality and ischaemic stroke in subjects with diastolic dysfunction: the Tromsø Study 1994-2013.

    PubMed

    Norvik, Jon V; Schirmer, Henrik; Ytrehus, Kirsti; Storhaug, Hilde M; Jenssen, Trond G; Eriksen, Bjørn O; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Wilsgaard, Tom; Solbu, Marit D

    2017-05-01

    To investigate whether serum uric acid predicts adverse outcomes in persons with indices of diastolic dysfunction in a general population. We performed a prospective cohort study among 1460 women and 1480 men from 1994 to 2013. Endpoints were all-cause mortality, incident myocardial infarction, and incident ischaemic stroke. We stratified the analyses by echocardiographic markers of diastolic dysfunction, and uric acid was the independent variable of interest. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated per 59 μmol/L increase in baseline uric acid. Multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models showed that uric acid predicted all-cause mortality in subjects with E/A ratio <0.75 (HR 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.25) or E/A ratio >1.5 (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.09-2.09, P for interaction between E/A ratio category and uric acid = 0.02). Elevated uric acid increased mortality risk in persons with E-wave deceleration time <140 ms or >220 ms (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.01-2.12 and HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.02-1.26, respectively; P for interaction = 0.04). Furthermore, in participants with isovolumetric relaxation time ≤60 ms, mortality risk was higher with increasing uric acid (HR 4.98, 95% CI 2.02-12.26, P for interaction = 0.004). Finally, elevated uric acid predicted ischaemic stroke in subjects with severely enlarged left atria (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.03-2.53, P for interaction = 0.047). Increased uric acid was associated with higher all-cause mortality risk in subjects with echocardiographic indices of diastolic dysfunction, and with higher ischaemic stroke risk in persons with severely enlarged left atria.

  19. A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox, George; Salazar, Ronald; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Dubos, Gregory

    2013-01-01

    Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

  20. A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox, George; Salazar, Ronald; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Dubos, Gregory

    2013-01-01

    Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

  1. A satellite mortality study to support space systems lifetime prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fox, George; Salazar, Ronald; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Dubos, Gregory F.

    Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

  2. Model independent predictions for rare top decays with weak coupling

    SciTech Connect

    Datta, Alakabha; Duraisamy, Murugeswaran

    2010-04-01

    Measurements at B factories have provided important constraints on new physics in several rare processes involving the B meson. New physics, if present in the b quark sector may also affect the top sector. In an effective Lagrangian approach, we write down operators, where effects in the bottom and the top sector are related. Assuming the couplings of the operators to be of the same size as the weak coupling g of the standard model and taking into account constraints on new physics from the bottom sector as well as top branching ratios, we make predictions for the rare top decays t{yields}cV, where V={gamma}, Z. We find branching fractions for these decays within possible reach of the LHC. Predictions are also made for t{yields}sW.

  3. Improving longleaf pine mortality predictions in the Southern Variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator

    Treesearch

    R. Justin DeRose; John D. Shaw; Giorgio Vacchiano; James N. Long

    2008-01-01

    The Southern Variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS-SN) is made up of individual submodels that predict tree growth, recruitment and mortality. Forest managers on Ft. Bragg, North Carolina, discovered biologically unrealistic longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) size-density predictions at large diameters when using FVS-SN to project red-cockaded...

  4. A way forward for fire-caused tree mortality prediction: Modeling a physiological consequence of fire

    Treesearch

    Kathleen L. Kavanaugh; Matthew B. Dickinson; Anthony S. Bova

    2010-01-01

    Current operational methods for predicting tree mortality from fire injury are regression-based models that only indirectly consider underlying causes and, thus, have limited generality. A better understanding of the physiological consequences of tree heating and injury are needed to develop biophysical process models that can make predictions under changing or novel...

  5. Depressive symptoms are independently predictive of carotid atherosclerosis.

    PubMed

    Haas, Donald C; Davidson, Karina W; Schwartz, Daniel J; Rieckmann, Nina; Roman, Mary J; Pickering, Thomas G; Gerin, William; Schwartz, Joseph E

    2005-02-15

    The investigators tested whether depressive symptoms were predictive of carotid atherosclerosis, a marker of coronary atherosclerosis. Healthy participants (n = 219) underwent the baseline assessment of cardiovascular risk factors, including self-reported depressive symptoms, and were assessed for carotid plaque at 10-year follow-up. Adjusting for baseline cardiovascular risk factors, participants with elevated depression scores at baseline were >2 times as likely as those with no depressive symptoms to have carotid plaque.

  6. Disability Stage Is an Independent Risk Factor for Mortality in Medicare Beneficiaries 65 Years of Age and Older

    PubMed Central

    Hennessy, Sean; Kurichi, Jibby E.; Pan, Qiang; Streim, Joel E.; Bogner, Hillary; Xie, Dawei; Stineman, Margaret G.

    2015-01-01

    Background Stages of activity limitation based on activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) have been found to predict mortality in those age 70 years and above but have not been examined in Medicare beneficiaries age 65 years and older using routinely collected data. Objective To examine the association between functional stages based on activities of ADLs and IADLs with three-year mortality in Medicare beneficiaries age 65 years and older, accounting for baseline sociodemographics, heath status, smoking, subjective health, and psychological well-being. Design Cohort study using the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) and associated health care utilization data. Setting Community administered survey. Participants We included 9698 Medicare beneficiaries 65 years of age and older who entered the MCBS in 2005–07. Main outcome measures Death within three years of cohort entry. Results The overall mortality rate was 3.6 per 100 person years, and three-year cumulative mortality was 10.3%. Unadjusted three-year mortality was monotonically associated with both ADL stage and IADL stag. Adjusted three-year mortality was associated with ADL and IADL stages, except that in some models the hazard ratio for stage III (which includes persons with atypical activity limitation patterns) was numerically lower than that for stage II. Conclusion We found nearly monotonic relationships between ADL and IADL stage and adjusted three-year mortality. These findings could aid in the development of population health approaches and metrics for evaluating the success of alternative economic, social, or health policies on the longevity of older adults with activity limitations. PMID:26003869

  7. Mortality prediction using TRISS methodology in the Spanish ICU Trauma Registry (RETRAUCI).

    PubMed

    Chico-Fernández, M; Llompart-Pou, J A; Sánchez-Casado, M; Alberdi-Odriozola, F; Guerrero-López, F; Mayor-García, M D; Egea-Guerrero, J J; Fernández-Ortega, J F; Bueno-González, A; González-Robledo, J; Servià-Goixart, L; Roldán-Ramírez, J; Ballesteros-Sanz, M Á; Tejerina-Alvarez, E; Pino-Sánchez, F I; Homar-Ramírez, J

    2016-10-01

    To validate Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) methodology as an auditing tool in the Spanish ICU Trauma Registry (RETRAUCI). A prospective, multicenter registry evaluation was carried out. Thirteen Spanish Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Individuals with traumatic disease and available data admitted to the participating ICUs. Predicted mortality using TRISS methodology was compared with that observed in the pilot phase of the RETRAUCI from November 2012 to January 2015. Discrimination was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the corresponding areas under the curves (AUCs) (95% CI), with calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit test. A value of p<0.05 was considered significant. Predicted and observed mortality. A total of 1405 patients were analyzed. The observed mortality rate was 18% (253 patients), while the predicted mortality rate was 16.9%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.889 (95% CI: 0.867-0.911). Patients with blunt trauma (n=1305) had an area under the ROC curve of 0.887 (95% CI: 0.864-0.910), and those with penetrating trauma (n=100) presented an area under the curve of 0.919 (95% CI: 0.859-0.979). In the global sample, the HL test yielded a value of 25.38 (p=0.001): 27.35 (p<0.0001) in blunt trauma and 5.91 (p=0.658) in penetrating trauma. TRISS methodology underestimated mortality in patients with low predicted mortality and overestimated mortality in patients with high predicted mortality. TRISS methodology in the evaluation of severe trauma in Spanish ICUs showed good discrimination, with inadequate calibration - particularly in blunt trauma. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

  8. Early Standard Electroencephalogram Abnormalities Predict Mortality in Septic Intensive Care Unit Patients

    PubMed Central

    Azabou, Eric; Magalhaes, Eric; Braconnier, Antoine; Yahiaoui, Lyria; Moneger, Guy; Heming, Nicholas; Annane, Djillali; Mantz, Jean; Chrétien, Fabrice; Durand, Marie-Christine; Lofaso, Frédéric; Porcher, Raphael; Sharshar, Tarek

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Sepsis is associated with increased mortality, delirium and long-term cognitive impairment in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Electroencephalogram (EEG) abnormalities occurring at the acute stage of sepsis may correlate with severity of brain dysfunction. Predictive value of early standard EEG abnormalities for mortality in ICU septic patients remains to be assessed. Methods In this prospective, single center, observational study, standard EEG was performed, analyzed and classified according to both Synek and Young EEG scales, in consecutive patients acutely admitted in ICU for sepsis. Delirium, coma and the level of sedation were assessed at the time of EEG recording; and duration of sedation, occurrence of in-ICU delirium or death were assessed during follow-up. Adjusted analyses were carried out using multiple logistic regression. Results One hundred ten patients were included, mean age 63.8 (±18.1) years, median SAPS-II score 38 (29–55). At the time of EEG recording, 46 patients (42%) were sedated and 22 (20%) suffered from delirium. Overall, 54 patients (49%) developed delirium, of which 32 (29%) in the days after EEG recording. 23 (21%) patients died in the ICU. Absence of EEG reactivity was observed in 27 patients (25%), periodic discharges (PDs) in 21 (19%) and electrographic seizures (ESZ) in 17 (15%). ICU mortality was independently associated with a delta-predominant background (OR: 3.36; 95% CI [1.08 to 10.4]), absence of EEG reactivity (OR: 4.44; 95% CI [1.37–14.3], PDs (OR: 3.24; 95% CI [1.03 to 10.2]), Synek grade ≥ 3 (OR: 5.35; 95% CI [1.66–17.2]) and Young grade > 1 (OR: 3.44; 95% CI [1.09–10.8]) after adjustment to Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS-II) at admission and level of sedation. Delirium at the time of EEG was associated with ESZ in non-sedated patients (32% vs 10%, p = 0.037); with Synek grade ≥ 3 (36% vs 7%, p< 0.05) and Young grade > 1 (36% vs 17%, p< 0.001). Occurrence of delirium in the days after

  9. Multivariate prediction of total and cardiovascular mortality in an obese Polynesian population.

    PubMed

    Crews, D E

    1989-08-01

    The effects of body weight and blood pressure on the risk of total mortality and mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) were examined in a prospective sample of 5,866 adult residents of American Samoa, a Polynesian population noted for exhibiting high levels of obesity. Data collected during 1975-76 were linked to mortality records from 1976 through 1981. In logistic regression models which did not include blood pressure, percent of desirable weight was an important risk factor for mortality from CVD, but it was not an important risk factor when diastolic blood pressure was included in the model. Percent of desirable weight was not related to mortality from all causes combined in either Samoan men or women. Age and diastolic blood pressure were predictors of total and CVD mortality in men and women. These results, in an obese population, suggest that body weight and obesity are not independently related to excess mortality in the very obese, although they may associate with high blood pressure. These results also suggest that relations between physiological characteristics and mortality may vary with cultural, genetic, or other factors not examined in this study.

  10. Obesity and deranged sleep are independently associated with increased cancer mortality in 50 US states and the District of Columbia.

    PubMed

    Lehrer, Steven; Green, Sheryl; Ramanathan, Lakshmi; Rosenzweig, Kenneth E

    2013-09-01

    Proper sleep is associated with reduced cancer risk. For example, multiple studies have found that habitual sleeping pill usage is related to death from cancer, suggesting that sleep derangement may increase cancer mortality. However, other studies have not found a definite connection between sleep and cancer deaths. For this reason, we analyzed US cancer mortality data and sleep quality data to see if there was relationship. Age-adjusted data on sleep disturbance in 50 US states and the District of Columbia are from Perceived insufficient rest or sleep among adults--United States, 2008. Age-adjusted all-cancer mortality data are from American Cancer Society Cancer Facts and Figures. Obesity data are from Vital signs: state-specific obesity prevalence among adults--United States, 2009. Data on race by state are from the 2010 US Census (http://www.census.gov). There was a significant correlation between percentage of persons who reported insufficient sleep every day in the preceding 30 days versus all-cancer mortality in 50 US states and the District of Columbia (p < 0.001). Because cancer survival is higher in whites than blacks and lower in obese individuals, multiple linear regression was performed. The association of insufficient sleep every day in the preceding 30 days with all-cancer mortality was significant (p = 0.017), independent of the percentage obese (p < 0.001), and unrelated to percentage white population (p = 0.847). Alterations in endocrine function, perhaps abnormal cortisol metabolism resulting from deranged sleep, may be in part responsible for the increased all-cancer mortality we report here. Further studies would be worthwhile.

  11. Independent and combined effects of maternal smoking and solid fuel on infant and child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

    PubMed

    Akinyemi, Joshua O; Adedini, Sunday A; Wandera, Stephen O; Odimegwu, Clifford O

    2016-12-01

    To estimate the independent and combined risks of infant and child mortality associated with maternal smoking and use of solid fuel in sub-Saharan Africa. Pooled weighted data on 143 602 under-five children in the most recent demographic and health surveys for 15 sub-Saharan African countries were analysed. The synthetic cohort life table technique and Cox proportional hazard models were employed to investigate the effect of maternal smoking and solid cooking fuel on infant (age 0-11 months) and child (age 12-59 months) mortality. Socio-economic and other confounding variables were included as controls. The distribution of the main explanatory variable in households was as follows: smoking + solid fuel - 4.6%; smoking + non-solid fuel - 0.22%; no smoking + solid fuel - 86.9%; and no smoking + non-solid fuel - 8.2%. The highest infant mortality rate was recorded among children exposed to maternal smoking + solid fuel (72 per 1000 live births); the child mortality rate was estimated to be 54 per 1000 for this group. In full multivariate models, the risk of infant death was 71% higher among those exposed to maternal smoking + solid fuel (HR = 1.71, CI: 1.29-2.28). For ages 12 to 59 months, the risk of death was 99% higher (HR = 1.99, CI: 1.28-3.08). Combined exposures to cigarette smoke and solid fuel increase the risks of infant and child mortality. Mothers of under-five children need to be educated about the danger of smoking while innovative approaches are needed to reduce the mortality risks associated with solid cooking fuel. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Do depressive symptoms predict the incidence of myocardial infarction independent of hopelessness?

    PubMed

    Pössel, Patrick; Mitchell, Amanda M; Ronkainen, Kimmo; Kaplan, George A; Kauhanen, Jussi; Valtonen, Maarit

    2015-01-01

    Depression and hopelessness predict myocardial infarction, but it is unclear whether depression and hopelessness are independent predictors of myocardial infarction incidents. Hopelessness, depression, and myocardial infarction incidence rate 18 years later were measured in 2005 men. Cox regressions were conducted with hopelessness and depression serving as individual predictors of myocardial infarction. Another Cox model examined whether the two predictors predict myocardial infarction when adjusting for each other. Depression and hopelessness predicted myocardial infarction in independent regressions, but when adjusting for each other, hopelessness, but not depression, predicted myocardial infarction incidents. Thus, these results suggest that depression and hopelessness are not independent predictors of myocardial infarction. © The Author(s) 2013.

  13. Time orientation and executive functions in the prediction of mortality in the elderly: Epidoso study.

    PubMed

    Xavier, André Junqueira; d'Orsi, Eleonora; Sigulem, Daniel; Ramos, Luiz Roberto

    2010-02-01

    To analyze the predictive ability of a functional cognitive index of mortality in the elderly. Cohort study performed with 1,667 elderly individuals aged more than 65 years and living in the city of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, between 1991 and 2001. Functional cognitive index was constructed from time orientation and executive functions (going shopping and taking medication), controlled by sociodemographic variables, life habits, morbidity, self-perception of health, hospitalization, edentulism and social support. Deaths occurred during this period were analyzed with family members in home interviews, notary public offices and records from the Fundação Seade (State System of Data Analysis Foundation), until 2003. Crude and adjusted relative risks were calculated with their respective 95% confidence intervals, using bivariate and multiple analysis with Poisson regression and p<0.05. In the final multivariate model, the following independent risk factors were identified by the index: partial loss of time orientation or executive functions (RR=1.37; 95% CI: 1.03;1.83); total loss of orientation and partial loss of functions (RR=1.71; 95% CI: 1.24;2.37); partial loss of orientation and total loss of functions (RR=1.76; 95% CI: 1.35;2.28); and total loss of orientation and functions (RR=1.64; 95% CI: 1.30;2.06). As regards health conditions, the following were observed: hospitalization (RR=1.45; 95% CI: 1.22;1.73); diabetes (RR=1.20; 95% CI: 1.00;1.44); and total edentulism (RR=1.34; 95% CI: 1.09;1.66). Monthly contact with relatives was identified as a protective factor (RR=0.83; 95% CI: 0.69;1.00). The Functional Cognitive Index can help clinicians and health planners to make decisions on strategies for follow-up and prevention of treatable causes of cognitive deficit and functional loss to reduce mortality in the elderly.

  14. Is the high mortality risk in sentenced offenders independent of previous imprisonment?

    PubMed

    Kjelsberg, Ellen; Laake, Petter

    2010-04-01

    The mortality in prisoners is high. However, our knowledge about the mortality in convicted offenders, irrespective of incarceration history, is limited. Our aim was to investigate possible predictors for over-all and cause specific mortality in a nation-wide study of convicted offenders with and without previous imprisonment. This case-control study drew random samples of deceased and living offenders (N = 1,112) from four complete cohorts of convicted offenders, two male (born 1967 and 1977, respectively), and two female (born 1967-70 and 1977-80, respectively). All criminal records were systematized and information about date and cause of death was collected on those deceased. Multivariable analyses demonstrated that age at first court conviction (OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.84-0.93), drug related crimes (OR = 1.99, 95% CI = 1.23-3.22), and crime diversity (1.51, 95% CI = 1.07-2.13) were significant predictors of premature death in males. In females, age at first court conviction (OR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.88-0.97), drug related crimes (OR = 2.24, 95% CI = 1.37-3.69) and belonging to the oldest cohort (OR = 2.10, 95% CI = 1.35-3.26) were significant predictors of premature death. Age at first court conviction remained a significant predictor for death in all cause specific multivariable mortality analyses. In addition, having committed drug related crimes and high crime diversity were strong predictors for substance related deaths. Males did more often die in accidents or commit suicide. Somatic deaths were most often encountered in the oldest cohort. Incarceration did not remain a significant predictor for premature death in any of the multivariable analyses. Measures intended to prevent premature death in convicted offenders should target wider populations than hitherto acknowledged.

  15. Predictive Factors of Hospital Mortality Due to Myocardial Infarction: A Multilevel Analysis of Iran's National Data

    PubMed Central

    Ahmadi, Ali; Soori, Hamid; Mehrabi, Yadollah; Etemad, Koorosh; Sajjadi, Homeira; Sadeghi, Mehraban

    2015-01-01

    Background: Regarding failure to establish the statistical presuppositions for analysis of the data by conventional approaches, hierarchical structure of the data as well as the effect of higher-level variables, this study was conducted to determine the factors independently associated with hospital mortality due to myocardial infarction (MI) in Iran using a multilevel analysis. Methods: This study was a national, hospital-based, and cross-sectional study. In this study, the data of 20750 new MI patients between April, 2012 and March, 2013 in Iran were used. The hospital mortality due to MI was considered as the dependent variable. The demographic data, clinical and behavioral risk factors at the individual level and environmental data were gathered. Multilevel logistic regression models with Stata software were used to analyze the data. Results: Within 1-year of study, the frequency (%) of hospital mortality within 30 days of admission was derived 2511 (12.1%) patients. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) of mortality with (95% confidence interval [CI]) was derived 2.07 (95% CI: 1.5–2.8) for right bundle branch block, 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3–1.7) for ST-segment elevation MI, 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1–1.4) for female gender, and 1.2 (95% CI: 1.1–1.3) for humidity, all of which were considered as risk factors of mortality. But, OR of mortality was 0.7 for precipitation (95% CI: 0.7–0.8) and 0.5 for angioplasty (95% CI: 0.4–0.6) were considered as protective factors of mortality. Conclusions: Individual risk factors had independent effects on the hospital mortality due to MI. Variables in the province level had no significant effect on the outcome of MI. Increasing access and quality to treatment could reduce the mortality due to MI. PMID:26730342

  16. Predicting post-fire tree mortality for 12 western US conifers using the First-Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM)

    Treesearch

    Sharon Hood; Duncan Lutes

    2017-01-01

    Accurate prediction of fire-caused tree mortality is critical for making sound land management decisions such as developing burning prescriptions and post-fire management guidelines. To improve efforts to predict post-fire tree mortality, we developed 3-year post-fire mortality models for 12 Western conifer species - white fir (Abies concolor [Gord. &...

  17. High Peritoneal Transport Status is Not an Independent Risk Factor for High Mortality in Patients Treated with Automated Peritoneal Dialysis

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Tae Ik; Park, Jung Tak; Lee, Dong Hyung; Lee, Ju Hyun; Yoo, Tae Hyun; Kim, Beom Seok; Kang, Shin-Wook; Lee, Ho Yung

    2010-01-01

    We undertook this study to elucidate whether baseline peritoneal membrane transport characteristics are associated with high mortality in incident automated peritoneal dialysis (APD) patients. This retrospective study includes 117 patients who started APD at Yonsei University Health System from 1996 to 2008 and had a PET within 3 months of APD initiation. High transporters were significantly older and had a higher incidence of cardiovascular disease. Patient survival for years 1, 3, and 5 were 85%, 64%, and 35% for high transporter and 94%, 81%, and 68% for non-high transporter group (P<0.01). Multivariate analysis revealed that age, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, serum albumin level, and residual renal function were independently associated with high mortality in APD patients. In contrast, high transport status was not a significant predictor for mortality in this population when the other covariates were included. Even though high transport was significantly associated with mortality in the univariate analysis, its role seemed to be influenced by other comorbid conditions. These findings suggest that the proper management of these comorbid conditions, as well as appropriate ultrafiltration by use of APD and/or icodextrin, must be considered as protective strategies to improve survival in peritoneal dialysis patients with high transport. PMID:20808674

  18. N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) -based score can predict in-hospital mortality in patients with heart failure.

    PubMed

    Huang, Ya-Ting; Tseng, Yuan-Teng; Chu, Tung-Wei; Chen, John; Lai, Min-Yu; Tang, Woung-Ru; Shiao, Chih-Chung

    2016-07-14

    Serum N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) testing is recommended in the patients with heart failure (HF). We hypothesized that NT-pro-BNP, in combination with other clinical factors in terms of a novel NT-pro BNP-based score, may provide even better predictive power for in-hospital mortality among patients with HF. A retrospective study enrolled adult patients with hospitalization-requiring HF who fulfilled the predefined criteria during the period from January 2011 to December 2013. We proposed a novel scoring system consisting of several independent predictors including NT-pro-BNP for predicting in-hospital mortality, and then compared the prognosis-predictive power of the novel NT-pro BNP-based score with other prognosis-predictive scores. A total of 269 patients were enrolled in the current study. Factors such as "serum NT-pro-BNP level above 8100 mg/dl," "age above 79 years," "without taking angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blocker," "without taking beta-blocker," "without taking loop diuretics," "with mechanical ventilator support," "with non-invasive ventilator support," "with vasopressors use," and "experience of cardio-pulmonary resuscitation" were found as independent predictors. A novel NT-pro BNP-based score composed of these risk factors was proposed with excellent predictability for in-hospital mortality. The proposed novel NT-pro BNP-based score was extremely effective in predicting in-hospital mortality in HF patients.

  19. Prediction of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality at 10 years in the hypertensive aged population.

    PubMed

    Huynh, Quan L; Reid, Christopher M; Chowdhury, Enayet K; Huq, Molla M; Billah, Baki; Wing, Lindon M H; Tonkin, Andrew M; Simons, Leon A; Nelson, Mark R

    2015-05-01

    We have previously developed a score for predicting cardiovascular events in the intermediate term in an elderly hypertensive population. In this study, we aimed to extend this work to predict 10-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the hypertensive aged population. Ten-year follow-up data of 5,378 hypertensive participants in the Second Australian National Blood Pressure study who were aged 65-84 years at baseline (1995-2001) and without prior cardiovascular events were analyzed. By using bootstrap resampling variable selection methods and comparing the Akaike and Bayesian information criterion and C-indices of the potential models, optimal and parsimonious multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict 10-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The models were validated using bootstrap validation method internally and using the Dubbo Study dataset externally. The final model for cardiovascular mortality included detrimental (age, smoking, diabetes, waist-hip ratio, and disadvantaged socioeconomic status) and protective factors (female sex, alcohol consumption, and physical activity). The final model for all-cause mortality also included detrimental (age, smoking, random blood glucose, and disadvantaged socioeconomic status) and protective factors (female sex, alcohol consumption, body mass index, and statin use). Blood pressure did not appear in either model in this patient group. The C-statistics for internal validation were 0.707 (cardiovascular mortality) and 0.678 (all-cause mortality), and for external validation were 0.729 (cardiovascular mortality) and 0.772 (all-cause mortality). These algorithms allow reliable estimation of 10-year risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality for hypertensive aged individuals. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2014. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Cardiac natriuretic peptides are related to left ventricular mass and function and predict mortality in dialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Zoccali, C; Mallamaci, F; Benedetto, F A; Tripepi, G; Parlongo, S; Cataliotti, A; Cutrupi, S; Giacone, G; Bellanuova, I; Cottini, E; Malatino, L S

    2001-07-01

    This study was designed to investigate the relationship among brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) and left ventricular mass (LVM), ejection fraction, and LV geometry in a large cohort of dialysis patients without heart failure (n = 246) and to test the prediction power of these peptides for total and cardiovascular mortality. In separate multivariate models of LVM, BNP and ANP were the strongest independent correlates of the LVM index. In these models, the predictive power of BNP was slightly stronger than that of ANP. Both natriuretic peptides also were the strongest independent predictors of ejection fraction, and again BNP was a slightly better predictor of ejection fraction than ANP. In separate multivariate Cox models, the relative risk of death was significantly higher in patients of the third tertile of the distribution of BNP and ANP than in those of the first tertile (BNP, 7.14 [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.83 to 18.01, P = 0.00001]; ANP, 4.22 [95% CI, 1.79 to 9.92, P = 0.001]), and a similar difference was found for cardiovascular death (BNP, 6.72 [95% CI, 2.44 to 18.54, P = 0.0002]; ANP, 3.80 [95% CI, 1.44 to 10.03, P = 0.007]). BNP but not ANP remained as an independent predictor of death in a Cox's model including LVM and ejection fraction. Cardiac natriuretic peptides are linked independently to LVM and function in dialysis patients and predict overall and cardiovascular mortality. The measurement of the plasma concentration of BNP and ANP may be useful for risk stratification in these patients.

  1. Viremia Copy-Years Predicts Mortality Among Treatment-Naive HIV-Infected Patients Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Napravnik, Sonia; Cole, Stephen R.; Eron, Joseph J.; Lau, Bryan; Crane, Heidi M.; Kitahata, Mari M.; Willig, James H.; Moore, Richard D.; Deeks, Steven G.; Saag, Michael S.

    2011-01-01

    Background. Cross-sectional plasma human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viral load (VL) measures have proven invaluable for clinical and research purposes. However, cross-sectional VL measures fail to capture cumulative plasma HIV burden longitudinally. We evaluated the cumulative effect of exposure to HIV replication on mortality following initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). Methods. We included treatment-naive HIV-infected patients starting ART from 2000 to 2008 at 8 Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems sites. Viremia copy-years, a time-varying measure of cumulative plasma HIV exposure, were determined for each patient using the area under the VL curve. Multivariable Cox models were used to evaluate the independent association of viremia copy-years for all-cause mortality. Results. Among 2027 patients contributing 6579 person-years of follow-up, the median viremia copy-years was 5.3 log10 copy × y/mL (interquartile range: 4.9–6.3 log10 copy × y/mL), and 85 patients (4.2%) died. When evaluated separately, viremia copy-years (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.81 per log10 copy × y/mL; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.51–2.18 per log10 copy × y/mL), 24-week VL (1.74 per log10 copies/mL; 95% CI, 1.48–2.04 per log10 copies/mL), and most recent VL (HR = 1.89 per log10 copies/mL; 95% CI: 1.63–2.20 per log10 copies/mL) were associated with increased mortality. When simultaneously evaluating VL measures and controlling for other covariates, viremia copy-years increased mortality risk (HR = 1.44 per log10 copy × y/mL; 95% CI, 1.07–1.94 per log10 copy × y/mL), whereas no cross-sectional VL measure was independently associated with mortality. Conclusions. Viremia copy-years predicted all-cause mortality independent of traditional, cross-sectional VL measures and time-updated CD4+ T-lymphocyte count in ART-treated patients, suggesting cumulative HIV replication causes harm independent of its effect on the degree of

  2. Mesh-independent prediction of skin burns injury.

    PubMed

    Ng, E Y; Chua, L T

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents a robust finite element model (FEM) with multiple-layers of varying properties for investigation of burn effects on human skin during a burning process resulting from exposure of skin surface to a contact heat source and a hot moving fluid. Henriques' theory of skin burns is used in conjunction with two-dimensional Pennes bioheat transfer equation for determining the spatial and temporal extent of burn injury. The model developed is a two-dimensional axisymmetric model in cylindrical coordinates. The various tissue layers account for changing thermal properties with respect to skin anatomy. A finite element scheme that uses the backward Euler method is used to solve the problem. The injury processes of skin subsequent to the removal of the heat source (post-burn) will also be inspected. The mesh employed in this model consists of a high density of nodes and elements in which a thorough mesh convergence study was done. A comparison of the transient temperature field computed by this model against Diller's results using the FE technique with a comparatively coarse mesh of 125 elements and experimental data by Orgill et al. has been done in the present study. It concluded that improved accurate solutions have been performed using the robust model developed due to the achievement of a mesh-independent solution.

  3. Right atrial volume by cardiovascular magnetic resonance predicts mortality in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction

    PubMed Central

    Ivanov, Alexander; Mohamed, Ambreen; Asfour, Ahmed; Ho, Jean; Khan, Saadat A.; Chen, Onn; Klem, Igor; Ramasubbu, Kumudha; Brener, Sorin J.; Heitner, John F.

    2017-01-01

    Background Right Atrial Volume Index (RAVI) measured by echocardiography is an independent predictor of morbidity in patients with heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). The aim of this study is to evaluate the predictive value of RAVI assessed by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) for all-cause mortality in patients with HFrEF and to assess its additive contribution to the validated Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic heart failure (MAGGIC) score. Methods and results We identified 243 patients (mean age 60 ± 15; 33% women) with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤ 35% measured by CMR. Right atrial volume was calculated based on area in two- and four -chamber views using validated equation, followed by indexing to body surface area. MAGGIC score was calculated using online calculator. During mean period of 2.4 years 33 patients (14%) died. The mean RAVI was 53 ± 26 ml/m2; significantly larger in patients with than without an event (78.7±29 ml/m2 vs. 48±22 ml/m2, p<0.001). RAVI (per ml/m2) was an independent predictor of mortality [HR = 1.03 (1.01–1.04), p = 0.001]. RAVI has a greater discriminatory ability than LVEF, left atrial volume index and right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF) (C-statistic 0.8±0.08 vs 0.55±0.1, 0.62±0.11, 0.68±0.11, respectively, all p<0.02). The addition of RAVI to the MAGGIC score significantly improves risk stratification (integrated discrimination improvement 13%, and category-free net reclassification improvement 73%, both p<0.001). Conclusion RAVI by CMR is an independent predictor of mortality in patients with HFrEF. The addition of RAVI to MAGGIC score improves mortality risk stratification. PMID:28369148

  4. Automated prediction of early blood transfusion and mortality in trauma patients.

    PubMed

    Mackenzie, Colin F; Wang, Yulei; Hu, Peter F; Chen, Shih-Yu; Chen, Hegang H; Hagegeorge, George; Stansbury, Lynn G; Shackelford, Stacy

    2014-06-01

    Prediction of blood transfusion needs and mortality for trauma patients in near real time is an unrealized goal. We hypothesized that analysis of pulse oximeter signals could predict blood transfusion and mortality as accurately as conventional vital signs (VSs). Continuous VS data were recorded for direct admission trauma patients with abnormal prehospital shock index (SI = heart rate [HR] / systolic blood pressure) greater than 0.62. Predictions of transfusion during the first 24 hours and in-hospital mortality using logistical regression models were compared with DeLong's method for areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) to determine the optimal combinations of prehospital SI and HR, continuous photoplethysmographic (PPG), oxygen saturation (SpO2), and HR-related features. We enrolled 556 patients; 37 received blood within 24 hours; 7 received more than 4 U of red blood cells in less than 4 hours or "massive transfusion" (MT); and 9 died. The first 15 minutes of VS signals, including prehospital HR plus continuous PPG, and SpO2 HR signal analysis best predicted transfusion at 1 hour to 3 hours, MT, and mortality (AUROC, 0.83; p < 0.03) and no differently (p = 0.32) from a model including blood pressure. Predictions of transfusion based on the first 15 minutes of data were no different using 30 minutes to 60 minutes of data collection. SI plus PPG and SpO2 signal analysis (AUROC, 0.82) predicted 1-hour to 3-hour transfusion, MT, and mortality no differently from pulse oximeter signals alone. Pulse oximeter features collected in the first 15 minutes of our trauma patient resuscitation cohort, without user input, predicted early MT and mortality in the critical first hours of care better than the currently used VS such as combinations of HR and systolic blood pressure or prehospital SI alone. Therapeutic/prognostic study, level II.

  5. A predictive model relating daily fluctuations in summer temperatures and mortality rates.

    PubMed

    Fouillet, Anne; Rey, Grégoire; Jougla, Eric; Frayssinet, Philippe; Bessemoulin, Pierre; Hémon, Denis

    2007-06-19

    In the context of climate change, an efficient alert system to prevent the risk associated with summer heat is necessary. The authors' objective was to describe the temperature-mortality relationship in France over a 29-year period and to define and validate a combination of temperature factors enabling optimum prediction of the daily fluctuations in summer mortality. The study addressed the daily mortality rates of subjects aged over 55 years, in France as a whole, from 1975 to 2003. The daily minimum and maximum temperatures consisted in the average values recorded by 97 meteorological stations. For each day, a cumulative variable for the maximum temperature over the preceding 10 days was defined. The mortality rate was modelled using a Poisson regression with over-dispersion and a first-order autoregressive structure and with control for long-term and within-summer seasonal trends. The lag effects of temperature were accounted for by including the preceding 5 days. A "backward" method was used to select the most significant climatic variables. The predictive performance of the model was assessed by comparing the observed and predicted daily mortality rates on a validation period (summer 2003), which was distinct from the calibration period (1975-2002) used to estimate the model. The temperature indicators explained 76% of the total over-dispersion. The greater part of the daily fluctuations in mortality was explained by the interaction between minimum and maximum temperatures, for a day t and the day preceding it. The prediction of mortality during extreme events was greatly improved by including the cumulative variables for maximum temperature, in interaction with the maximum temperatures. The correlation between the observed and estimated mortality ratios was 0.88 in the final model. Although France is a large country with geographic heterogeneity in both mortality and temperatures, a strong correlation between the daily fluctuations in mortality and the

  6. Citric Acid Cycle Metabolites Predict the Severity of Myocardial Stunning and Mortality in Newborn Pigs.

    PubMed

    Hyldebrandt, Janus Adler; Støttrup, Nicolaj Brejnholt; Frederiksen, Christian Alcaraz; Heiberg, Johan; Dupont Birkler, Rune Isak; Johannsen, Mogens; Schmidt, Michael Rahbek; Ravn, Hanne Berg

    2016-12-01

    Myocardial infarction and chronic heart failure induce specific metabolic changes in the neonatal myocardium that are closely correlated to outcome. The aim of this study was to examine the metabolic responses to noninfarct heart failure and inotropic treatments in the newborn heart, which so far are undetermined. A total of 28 newborn pigs were instrumented with a microdialysis catheter in the right ventricle, and intercellular citric acid cycle intermediates and adenosine metabolite concentrations were determined at 20-minute intervals. Stunning was induced by 10 cycles of 3 minutes of ischemia, which was performed by occluding the right coronary artery, followed by 3 minutes of reperfusion. Animals were randomized for treatment with epinephrine + milrinone, dopamine + milrinone, dobutamine, or saline. University hospital animal laboratory. Ischemia-reperfusion induced right ventricular stunning and increased the concentrations of pyruvate lactate, succinate, malate, hypoxanthine, and xanthine (all, p < 0.01). During inotrope infusion, no differences in metabolite concentrations were detected between the treatment groups. In nonsurviving animals (n = 8), concentrations of succinate (p < 0.0001), malate (p = 0.009), and hypoxanthine (p = 0.04) increased compared with survivors, while contractility was significantly reduced (p = 0.03). Accumulation of citric acid cycle intermediates and adenosine metabolites reflects the presence of myocardial stunning and predicts mortality in acute noninfarct right ventricular heart failure in newborn pigs. This phenomenon occurs independently of the type of inotrope, suggesting that citric acid cycle intermediates represent potential markers of acute noninfarct heart failure.

  7. A risk tertiles model for predicting mortality in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome: age, plateau pressure, and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) at ARDS onset can predict mortality.

    PubMed

    Villar, Jesús; Pérez-Méndez, Lina; Basaldúa, Santiago; Blanco, Jesús; Aguilar, Gerardo; Toral, Darío; Zavala, Elizabeth; Romera, Miguel A; González-Díaz, Gumersindo; Nogal, Frutos Del; Santos-Bouza, Antonio; Ramos, Luís; Macías, Santiago; Kacmarek, Robert M

    2011-04-01

    Predicting mortality has become a necessary step for selecting patients for clinical trials and defining outcomes. We examined whether stratification by tertiles of respiratory and ventilatory variables at the onset of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) identifies patients with different risks of death in the intensive care unit. We performed a secondary analysis of data from 220 patients included in 2 multicenter prospective independent trials of ARDS patients mechanically ventilated with a lung-protective strategy. Using demographic, pulmonary, and ventilation data collected at ARDS onset, we derived and validated a simple prediction model based on a population-based stratification of variable values into low, middle, and high tertiles. The derivation cohort included 170 patients (all from one trial) and the validation cohort included 50 patients (all from a second trial). Tertile distribution for age, plateau airway pressure (P(plat)), and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) at ARDS onset identified subgroups with different mortalities, particularly for the highest-risk tertiles: age (> 62 years), P(plat) (> 29 cm H(2)O), and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) (< 112 mm Hg). Risk was defined by the number of coexisting high-risk tertiles: patients with no high-risk tertiles had a mortality of 12%, whereas patients with 3 high-risk tertiles had 90% mortality (P < .001). A prediction model based on tertiles of patient age, P(plat), and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) at the time the patient meets ARDS criteria identifies patients with the lowest and highest risk of intensive care unit death.

  8. Prediction of mortality in type 2 diabetes from health-related quality of life (ZODIAC-4).

    PubMed

    Kleefstra, Nanne; Landman, Gijs W D; Houweling, Sebastiaan T; Ubink-Veltmaat, Lielith J; Logtenberg, Susan J J; Meyboom-de Jong, Betty; Coyne, James C; Groenier, Klaas H; Bilo, Henk J G

    2008-05-01

    To investigate the relationship between health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and mortality in type 2 diabetes. In 1998, 1,143 primary care patients with type 2 diabetes participated in the Zwolle Outpatient Diabetes project Integrating Available Care (ZODIAC) study. At baseline, HRQOL was assessed with the RAND-36 and, after almost 6 years, life status was retrieved. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to investigate the association between HRQOL (continuous data) and mortality with adjustment for selected confounders (smoking, age, sex, diabetes duration, A1C, renal function, BMI, blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, and macrovascular complications). The Physical Component Summary of the RAND-36 was inversely associated with mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.979 [95% CI 0.966-0.992]), as were two separate RAND-36 dimensions. This study found that HRQOL is an independent marker of mortality and emphasizes the importance of looking beyond clinical parameters in patients with type 2 diabetes.

  9. The MDS Mortality Risk Index: The evolution of a method for predicting 6-month mortality in nursing home residents

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Accurate prognosis is vital to the initiation of advance care planning particularly in a vulnerable, at risk population such as care home residents. The aim of this paper is to report on the revision and simplification of the MDS Mortality Rating Index (MMRI) for use in clinical practice to predict the probability of death in six months for care home residents. Methods The design was a secondary analysis of a US Minimum Data Set (MDS) for long term care residents using regression analysis to identify predictors of mortality within six months. Results Using twelve easy to collect items, the probability of mortality within six months was accurately predicted within the MDS database. The items are: admission to the care home within three months; lost weight unintentionally in past three months; renal failure; chronic heart failure; poor appetite; male; dehydrated; short of breath; active cancer diagnosis; age; deteriorated cognitive skills in past three months; activities of daily living score. Conclusion A lack of recognition of the proximity of death is often blamed for inappropriate admission to hospital at the end of an older person's life. An accurate prognosis for older adults living in a residential or nursing home can facilitate end of life decision making and planning for preferred place of care at the end of life. The original MMRI was derived and validated from a large database of long term care residents in the USA. However, this simplification of the revised index (MMRI-R) may provide a means for facilitating prognostication and end of life discussions for application outside the USA where the MDS is not in use. Prospective testing is needed to further test the accuracy of the MMRI-R and its application in the UK and other non-MDS settings. PMID:20637076

  10. Progression of Aortic Arch Calcification Over 1 Year Is an Independent Predictor of Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Mi Jung; Shin, Dong Ho; Kim, Seung Jun; Oh, Hyung Jung; Yoo, Dong Eun; Ko, Kwang Il; Koo, Hyang Mo; Kim, Chan Ho; Doh, Fa Mee; Park, Jung Tak; Han, Seung Hyeok; Yoo, Tae-Hyun; Choi, Kyu Hun; Kang, Shin-Wook

    2012-01-01

    Backgrounds and Aims The presence and progression of vascular calcification have been demonstrated as important risk factors for mortality in dialysis patients. However, since the majority of subjects included in most previous studies were hemodialysis patients, limited information was available in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of aortic arch calcification (AoAC) and prognostic value of AoAC progression in PD patients. Methods We prospectively determined AoAC by chest X-ray at PD start and after 12 months, and evaluated the impact of AoAC progression on mortality in 415 incident PD patients. Results Of 415 patients, 169 patients (40.7%) had AoAC at baseline with a mean of 18.1±11.2%. The presence of baseline AoAC was an independent predictor of all-cause [Hazard ratio (HR): 2.181, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.336–3.561, P = 0.002] and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 3.582, 95% CI: 1.577–8.132, P = 0.002). Among 363 patients with follow-up chest X-rays at 12 months after PD start, the proportion of patients with AoAC progression was significantly higher in patients with baseline AoAC (64.2 vs. 5.3%, P<0.001). Moreover, all-cause and cardiovascular death rates were significantly higher in the progression groups than in the non-progression group (P<0.001). Multivariate Cox analysis revealed that AoAC progression was an independent predictor for all-cause (HR: 2.625, 95% CI: 1.150–5.991, P = 0.022) and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 4.008, 95% CI: 1.079–14.890, P = 0.038) in patients with AoAC at baseline. Conclusions The presence and progression of AoAC assessed by chest X-ray were independently associated with unfavorable outcomes in incident PD patients. Regular follow-up by chest X-ray could be a simple and useful method to stratify mortality risk in these patients. PMID:23144974

  11. Systematic review of mortality risk prediction models in the era of endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery.

    PubMed

    Lijftogt, N; Luijnenburg, T W F; Vahl, A C; Wilschut, E D; Leijdekkers, V J; Fiocco, M F; Wouters, M W J M; Hamming, J F

    2017-07-01

    The introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) has reduced perioperative mortality after abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surgery. The objective of this systematic review was to assess existing mortality risk prediction models, and identify which are most useful for patients undergoing AAA repair by either EVAR or open surgical repair. A systematic search of the literature was conducted for perioperative mortality risk prediction models for patients with AAA published since 2006. PRISMA guidelines were used; quality was appraised, and data were extracted and interpreted following the CHARMS guidelines. Some 3903 studies were identified, of which 27 were selected. A total of 13 risk prediction models have been developed and directly validated. Most models were based on a UK or US population. The best performing models regarding both applicability and discrimination were the perioperative British Aneurysm Repair score (C-statistic 0·83) and the preoperative Vascular Biochemistry and Haematology Outcome Model (C-statistic 0·85), but both lacked substantial external validation. Mortality risk prediction in AAA surgery has been modelled extensively, but many of these models are weak methodologically and have highly variable performance across different populations. New models are unlikely to be helpful; instead case-mix correction should be modelled and adapted to the population of interest using the relevant mortality predictors. © 2017 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Telomerase-independent paths to immortality in predictable cancer subtypes.

    PubMed

    Durant, Stephen T

    2012-01-01

    The vast majority of cancers commandeer the activity of telomerase - the remarkable enzyme responsible for prolonging cellular lifespan by maintaining the length of telomeres at the ends of chromosomes. Telomerase is only normally active in embryonic and highly proliferative somatic cells. Thus, targeting telomerase is an attractive anti-cancer therapeutic rationale currently under investigation in various phases of clinical development. However, previous reports suggest that an average of 10-15% of all cancers lose the functional activity of telomerase and most of these turn to an Alternative Lengthening of Telomeres pathway (ALT). ALT-positive tumours will therefore not respond to anti-telomerase therapies and there is a real possibility that such drugs would be toxic to normal telomerase-utilising cells and ultimately select for resistant cells that activate an ALT mechanism. ALT exploits certain DNA damage response (DDR) components to counteract telomere shortening and rapid trimming. ALT has been reported in many cancer subtypes including sarcoma, gastric carcinoma, central nervous system malignancies, subtypes of kidney (Wilm's Tumour) and bladder carcinoma, mesothelioma, malignant melanoma and germ cell testicular cancers to name but a few. A recent heroic study that analysed ALT in over six thousand tumour samples supports this historical spread, although only reporting an approximate 4% prevalence. This review highlights the various methods of ALT detection, unravels several molecular ALT models thought to promote telomere maintenance and elongation, spotlights the DDR components known to facilitate these and explores why certain tissues are more likely to subvert DDR away from its usually protective functions, resulting in a predictive pattern of prevalence in specific cancer subsets.

  13. Low lean tissue mass is an independent risk factor for mortality in patients with stages 4 and 5 non-dialysis chronic kidney disease

    PubMed Central

    Abad, Soraya; Macías, Nicolás; Aragoncillo, Inés; Santos, Alba; Galán, Isabel; Cedeño, Santiago; Manuel López-Gómez, Juan

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Background: Mortality in patients with stages 4 and 5 chronic kidney disease (CKD) is higher than in the general population. Body composition predicts mortality. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of body composition on mortality in patients with stages 4 and 5 non-dialysis CKD. Methods: We performed a prospective study of 356 patients with stages 4 and 5 non-dialysis CKD. At baseline, we recorded general characteristics, history of cardiovascular events, body composition, serum inflammatory markers, nutrition and cardiac biomarkers. Body composition was analysed using bioimpedance spectroscopy. We recorded the lean tissue index (LTI), fat tissue index (FTI) and overhydration (OH). During a median (range) follow-up of 22 (3–49) months, we recorded mortality, cardiovascular events and progress to renal replacement therapy. Results: At baseline, mean (± standard deviation) age was 67 ± 13 years (men 64%; diabetes 36%). Mean body mass index was 28.2 ± 12.8 kg/m2, the FTI was 12.3 ± 5.6 kg/m2, the LTI was 15.7 ± 3.4 kg/m2 and median (interquartile range) OH was 0.6 (−0.4 to 1.5) L. Sixty-four (18%) patients died during follow-up. The univariate Cox analysis showed an association between mortality and age, low LTI, high Charlson comorbidity index, previous cardiovascular events, OH, low albumin and prealbumin levels, and high C-reactive protein levels. Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed higher survival in patients with a higher LTI (log-rank, 9.47; P = 0.002). The multivariate Cox analysis confirmed an association between mortality and low LTI (P = 0.031), previous cardiovascular events (P = 0.003) and high Charlson comorbidity index (P = 0.01). We did not find any association between body composition and cardiovascular events or renal replacement therapy. Conclusions: A low LTI is an independent factor for mortality in patients with stages 4 and 5 CKD. PMID:28396734

  14. Preoperative risk score predicting 90-day mortality after liver resection in a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Chang, Chun-Ming; Yin, Wen-Yao; Su, Yu-Chieh; Wei, Chang-Kao; Lee, Cheng-Hung; Juang, Shiun-Yang; Chen, Yi-Ting; Chen, Jin-Cherng; Lee, Ching-Chih

    2014-09-01

    The impact of important preexisting comorbidities, such as liver and renal disease, on the outcome of liver resection remains unclear. Identification of patients at risk of mortality will aid in improving preoperative preparations. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a population-based score based on available preoperative and predictable parameters predicting 90-day mortality after liver resection using data from a hepatitis endemic country.We identified 13,159 patients who underwent liver resection between 2002 and 2006 in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. In a randomly selected half of the total patients, multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop a prediction score for estimating the risk of 90-day mortality by patient demographics, preoperative liver disease and comorbidities, indication for surgery, and procedure type. The score was validated with the remaining half of the patients.Overall 90-day mortality was 3.9%. Predictive characteristics included in the model were age, preexisting cirrhosis-related complications, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, renal disease, malignancy, and procedure type. Four risk groups were stratified by mortality scores of 1.1%, 2.2%, 7.7%, and 15%. Preexisting renal disease and cirrhosis-related complications were the strongest predictors. The score discriminated well in both the derivation and validation sets with c-statistics of 0.75 and 0.75, respectively.This population-based score could identify patients at risk of 90-day mortality before liver resection. Preexisting renal disease and cirrhosis-related complications had the strongest influence on mortality. This score enables preoperative risk stratification, decision-making, quality assessment, and counseling for individual patients.

  15. Low ALT blood levels predict long-term all-cause mortality among adults. A historical prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Ramaty, E; Maor, E; Peltz-Sinvani, N; Brom, A; Grinfeld, A; Kivity, S; Segev, S; Sidi, Y; Kessler, T; Sela, B A; Segal, G

    2014-12-01

    Increased blood levels of alanine amino transferase (ALT, also known as SGPT; serum glutamic pyruvic transaminase) serve as a marker of liver injury by various mechanisms. Less is known about the clinical implications associated with low-normal ALT levels. Previous studies showed low ALT levels to be associated with poor long-term outcomes among elderlies, serving as a biomarker for increased incidence of frailty and subsequent risk of mortality. However, it has not been determined yet whether low-normal ALT values might be predictive of frailty and mortality in younger, middle-aged adults. We conducted a historical prospective cohort analysis. A total of 23,506 adults with ALT levels within the normal range, at the mean age of 48 ± 11 years, participating in an annual screening program for preventive medicine, were followed-up for a median period of 8.5 years during which 638 died. Low-normal ALT values (serum ALT activity <17IU/L) were found to be predictive for increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR=1.6; 95% CI 1.34-1.92; p<0.001). Statistically significant correlation was demonstrated even after applying a multifactorial model correction for age, gender, eGFR, low albumin, arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus and ischemic heart disease. We suggest that low-normal ALT values may serve as an independent predictive marker for increased long-term mortality in middle-aged adults. Copyright © 2014 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Nutritional status using subjective global assessment independently predicts outcome of patients waiting for living donor liver transplant.

    PubMed

    Yadav, Sanjay Kumar; Choudhary, Narendra Singh; Saraf, Neeraj; Saigal, Sanjiv; Goja, Sanjay; Rastogi, Amit; Bhangui, Prashant; Soin, A S

    2017-08-31

    Malnutrition is an important risk factor for adverse outcomes in patients awaiting liver transplant. Living donor liver transplant, being an elective procedure, allows nutritional rehabilitation and optimization of these patients before transplant. This paper aimed to evaluate the outcome of end-stage liver disease (ESLD) patients with various degrees of malnutrition waiting for living donor liver transplant. Nutritional status was assessed using subjective global assessment (SGA) in patients who were evaluated for a liver transplant at our center from January 2015 to September 2015. All the data were collected prospectively. Predictive factors for mortality were analyzed using logistic regression and survival was obtained using Kaplan-Meier curves. One hundred and seventeen patients were grouped based on their nutrition status into normal, mild-moderate, and severe malnutrition. The groups were comparable in terms of age, sex, etiology of liver disease except alcoholic liver disease. Graft recipient weight ratio was comparable among groups. There was no significant difference in hospital stay. However, severe malnourished patients had higher incidence of sepsis (p=0.005) and death due to sepsis (p=0.01). Nutritional status was the only independent predictor of mortality on multivariate analysis. Nutritional status measured with SGA independently predicts short-term outcome of ESLD patients waiting and after living donor liver transplant.

  17. Assessment of Euroscore and SAPS III as hospital mortality predicted in cardiac surgery.

    PubMed

    Mateos-Pañero, B; Sánchez-Casado, M; Castaño-Moreira, B; Paredes-Astillero, I; López-Almodóvar, L F; Bustos-Molina, F

    2017-05-01

    To perform an external validation of Euroscore I, Euroscore II and SAPS III. Retrospective cohort study over three years on all adult patients who underwent cardiac surgery. We reviewed the clinical data, following the patient until outcome or discharge from hospital (dead, alive). We computed the predicted mortality by Euroscore I (EI), II (EII) and SAPS III. The model validation was assessed by discrimination: area under curve ROC; and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test). 866 patients were included. 62.5% of them male, with a median age of 69 years, 6.1% died during hospitalization. Predicted mortality: E I 7.94%, E II 3.54, SAPS III 12.1%. Area under curve (95% IC): E I 0.862 (0.812-0.912); E II 0.861 (0.806-0.915); SAPS III 0.692 (0.601-0.784). Hosmer-Lemeshow test: E I 14.0046 (P=.08164); E II 33.67 (P=.00004660); SAPS III 11.57 (P=.171). EII had good discrimination, but the calibration was not good with predicted mortality lower than the real mortality. E I showed the best discrimination with good calibration and a tendency to overestimate the mortality. SAPS III showed poor discrimination with good calibration and a tendency to greatly overestimate the predicted mortality. We saw no improvement in the predictive performance of EII over I and we reject the use of SAPS III in this kind of patient. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Anestesiología, Reanimación y Terapéutica del Dolor. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  18. A single question regarding mobility in the World Health Organization quality of life questionnaire predicts 3-year mortality in patients receiving chronic hemodialysis.

    PubMed

    Wang, Hsiu-Ho; Ho, Miao-Chun; Hung, Kuan-Yu; Cheng, Hui-Teng

    2017-09-20

    Low quality of life, depression and poor quality of sleep are associated with increased mortality in hemodialysis patients. It is not clear which factor has the highest predictive power and what the core element is to explain the predictability. We thus conducted a prospective cohort study that included 151 hemodialysis adults. Three traits of interest were assessed by World Health Organization Quality of Life questionnaire, an abbreviated version (WHOQOL-BREF), Taiwanese Depression Questionnaire, and Athens Insomnia Scale, respectively. They were followed for more than 3 years and the all-cause mortality was 30.5%. The prevalence of quality of life at the lowest tertile, depression and poor quality of sleep was 19.9%, 43.0% and 74.2%, respectively. Discriminant analysis showed the standardized coefficient of each factor as 0.813, -0.289 and 0.066, indicating the highest discriminating power by quality of life to predict mortality. Question 15 "how well are you able to get around?" in the physical health domain of WHOQOL-BREF independently associated a hazard ratio of mortality 0.623 (95% confidence interval 0.423-0.918). Subjective perception of overall quality of life was more related to psycho-social-environmental factors. In conclusion, mobility is an independent and powerful predictor to long term mortality in patients on chronic hemodialysis.

  19. Continuous renal replacement therapy in children: fluid overload does not always predict mortality.

    PubMed

    de Galasso, Lara; Emma, Francesco; Picca, Stefano; Di Nardo, Matteo; Rossetti, Emanuele; Guzzo, Isabella

    2016-04-01

    Mortality among critically ill children requiring continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) is high. Several factors have been identified as outcome predictors. Many studies have specifically reported a positive association between the fluid overload at CRRT initiation and the mortality of critically ill pediatric patients. This study is a retrospective single-center analysis including all patients admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of our hospital who received CRRT between 2000 and 2012. One hundred thirty-one patients were identified and subsequently classified according to primary disease. Survival rates, severity of illness and fluid balance differed among subgroups. The primary outcome was patient survival to PICU discharge. Overall survival to PICU discharge was 45.8 %. Based on multiple regression analysis, mortality was independently associated with onco-hematological disease [odds ratio (OR) 11.7, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.3-104.7; p = 0.028], severe multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) (OR 5.1, 95 % CI 1.7-15; p = 0.003) and hypotension (OR 11.6, 95 % CI 1.4-93.2; p = 0.021). In the subgroup analysis, a fluid overload (FO) of more than 10 % (FO>10 %) at the beginning of CRRT seems to be a negative predictor of mortality (OR 10.9, 95 % CI 0.78-152.62; p = 0.07) only in children with milder disease (renal patients). Due to lack of statistical power, the independent effect of fluid overload on mortality could not be analyzed in all subgroups of patients. In children treated with CRRT the underlying diagnosis and severity of illness are independent risk factors for mortality. The degree of FO is a negative predictor only in patients with milder disease.

  20. Mortality risk prediction models for coronary artery bypass graft surgery: current scenario and future direction.

    PubMed

    Karim, Mohammed N; Reid, Christopher M; Cochrane, Andrew; Tran, Lavinia; Alramadan, Mohammed; Hossain, Mohammed N; Billah, Baki

    2017-12-01

    Many risk prediction models are currently in use for predicting short-term mortality following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. This review critically appraised the methods that were used for developing these models to assess their applicability in current practice setting as well as for the necessity of up-gradation. Medline via Ovid was searched for articles published between 1946 and 2016 and EMBASE via Ovid between 1974 and 2016 to identify risk prediction models for CABG. Article selection and data extraction was conducted using the CHARMS checklist for review of prediction model studies. Association between model development methods and model's discrimination was assessed using Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance and Mann-Whitney U-test. A total of 53 risk prediction models for short-term mortality following CABG were identified. The review found a wide variation in development methodology of risk prediction models in the field. Ambiguous predictor and outcome definition, sub-optimum sample size, inappropriate handling of missing data and inefficient predictor selection technique are major issues identified in the review. Quantitative synthesis in the review showed "missing value imputation" and "adopting machine learning algorithms" may result in better discrimination power of the models. There are aspects in current risk modeling, where there is room for improvement to reflect current clinical practice. Future risk modelling needs to adopt a standardized approach to defining both outcome and predictor variables, rational treatment of missing data and robust statistical techniques to enhance performance of the mortality risk prediction.

  1. Predicting all-cause mortality from basic physiology in the Framingham Heart Study.

    PubMed

    Zhang, William B; Pincus, Zachary

    2016-02-01

    Using longitudinal data from a cohort of 1349 participants in the Framingham Heart Study, we show that as early as 28-38 years of age, almost 10% of variation in future lifespan can be predicted from simple clinical parameters. Specifically, we found diastolic and systolic blood pressure, blood glucose, weight, and body mass index (BMI) to be relevant to lifespan. These and similar parameters have been well-characterized as risk factors in the relatively narrow context of cardiovascular disease and mortality in middle to old age. In contrast, we demonstrate here that such measures can be used to predict all-cause mortality from mid-adulthood onward. Further, we find that different clinical measurements are predictive of lifespan in different age regimes. Specifically, blood pressure and BMI are predictive of all-cause mortality from ages 35 to 60, while blood glucose is predictive from ages 57 to 73. Moreover, we find that several of these parameters are best considered as measures of a rate of 'damage accrual', such that total historical exposure, rather than current measurement values, is the most relevant risk factor (as with pack-years of cigarette smoking). In short, we show that simple physiological measurements have broader lifespan-predictive value than indicated by previous work and that incorporating information from multiple time points can significantly increase that predictive capacity. In general, our results apply equally to both men and women, although some differences exist.

  2. Does adding risk-trends to survival models improve in-hospital mortality predictions? A cohort study

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Clinicians informally assess changes in patients' status over time to prognosticate their outcomes. The incorporation of trends in patient status into regression models could improve their ability to predict outcomes. In this study, we used a unique approach to measure trends in patient hospital death risk and determined whether the incorporation of these trend measures into a survival model improved the accuracy of its risk predictions. Methods We included all adult inpatient hospitalizations between 1 April 2004 and 31 March 2009 at our institution. We used the daily mortality risk scores from an existing time-dependent survival model to create five trend indicators: absolute and relative percent change in the risk score from the previous day; absolute and relative percent change in the risk score from the start of the trend; and number of days with a trend in the risk score. In the derivation set, we determined which trend indicators were associated with time to death in hospital, independent of the existing covariates. In the validation set, we compared the predictive performance of the existing model with and without the trend indicators. Results Three trend indicators were independently associated with time to hospital mortality: the absolute change in the risk score from the previous day; the absolute change in the risk score from the start of the trend; and the number of consecutive days with a trend in the risk score. However, adding these trend indicators to the existing model resulted in only small improvements in model discrimination and calibration. Conclusions We produced several indicators of trend in patient risk that were significantly associated with time to hospital death independent of the model used to create them. In other survival models, our approach of incorporating risk trends could be explored to improve their performance without the collection of additional data. PMID:21777460

  3. Predicting in-hospital mortality after hip fracture in elderly patients.

    PubMed

    Incalzi, R A; Capparella, O; Gemma, A; Camaioni, D; Sanguinetti, C; Carbonin, P U

    1994-01-01

    Ninety-seven patients aged 88 +/- 4 years (range, 80-97 years) (study group), and 74 aged 75 +/- 3 years (range, 70-79 years) (control group), were prospectively studied to investigate whether basic medical variables can predict in-hospital mortality in very old patients undergoing hip surgery because of femoral fracture. Mortality was 16.5% and 6.7% in the study and control groups, respectively (p = 0.054). In the study group, mortality was significantly correlated with age (p < 0.01), venous disorders (p < 0.05), malnutrition (p < 0.0001), duration of surgery (p < 0.006), and postoperative noninfectious complications (p < 0.005). In the control group, age was the only significant correlate of mortality (p < 0.005). After exclusion of surgery-related variables, the logistic regression analysis confirmed the predictive role of venous disorders (odds ratio = 2.04, confidence limits = 1.09-3.79) and malnutrition (odds ratio = 6.01, confidence limits = 1.85-19.47) but not of age in the study group. However, the goodness-of-fit test showed that the statistical model did not fit the data adequately. We conclude that in-hospital mortality after hip surgery in the very old cannot be predicted on the basis of underlying medical conditions alone.

  4. A combined comorbidity score predicted mortality in elderly patients better than existing scores

    PubMed Central

    Glynn, Robert J.; Avorn, Jerry; Levin, Raisa; Schneeweiss, Sebastian

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To develop and validate a single numeric comorbidity score for predicting short-and long-term mortality, by combining conditions in the Charlson and Elixhauser measures. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING In a cohort of 120,679 Pennsylvania Medicare enrollees with drug coverage through a pharmacy assistance program, we developed a single numeric comorbidity score for predicting 1-year mortality, by combining the conditions in the Charlson and Elixhauser measures. We externally validated the combined score in a cohort of New Jersey Medicare enrollees, by comparing its performance to that of both component scores in predicting 1-year mortality, as well as 180-, 90-, and 30-day mortality. RESULTS C-statistics from logistic regression models including the combined score were higher than corresponding c-statistics from models including either the Romano implementation of the Charlson Index or the single numeric version of the Elixhauser system; c-statistics were 0.860 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.854, 0.866), 0.839 (95% CI: 0.836, 0.849), and 0.836 (95% CI: 0.834, 0.847), respectively, for the 30-day mortality outcome. The combined comorbidity score also yielded positive values for two recently proposed measures of reclassification. CONCLUSION In similar populations and data settings, the combined score may offer improvements in comorbidity summarization over existing scores. PMID:21208778

  5. A Risk Model to Predict 90-Day Mortality among Patients Undergoing Hepatic Resection

    PubMed Central

    Hyder, Omar; Pulitano, Carlo; Firoozmand, Amin; Dodson, Rebecca; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Choti, Michael A; Aldrighetti, Luca; Pawlik, Timothy M

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND Reliable criteria to predict mortality after hepatectomy remain poorly defined. We sought to identify factors associated with 90-day mortality, as well as validate the “50-50” and peak bilirubin of >7 mg/dL prediction rules for mortality after liver resection. In addition, we propose a novel integer-based score for 90-day mortality using a large cohort of patients. STUDY DESIGN Data from 2,056 patients who underwent liver resection at 2 major hepatobiliary centers between 1990 and 2011 were identified. Perioperative laboratory data, as well as surgical and postoperative details, were analyzed to identify factors associated with liver-related 90-day death. RESULTS Indications for liver resection included colorectal metastasis (39%), hepatocellular carcinoma (19%), benign mass (17%), or noncolorectal metastasis (14%). Most patients had normal underlying liver parenchyma (71%) and resection involved ≥3 segments (36%). Overall morbidity and mortality were 19% and 2%, respectively. Only 1 patient fulfilled the 50-50 criteria; this patient survived and was discharged on day 8. Twenty patients had a peak bilirubin concentration >7 mg/dL and 5 died within 90 days; the sensitivity and spec-ificity of the >7-mg/dL rule were 25% and 99.3%, respectively, but overall accuracy was poor (area under the curve 0.574). Factors associated with 90-day mortality included international normalized ratio (odds ratio = 11.87), bilirubin (odds ratio = 1.16), and serum creatinine (odds ratio = 1.87) on postoperative day 3, as well as grade of postoperative complications (odds ratio = 5.08; all p < 0.05). Integer values were assigned to each factor to develop a model that predicted 90-day mortality (area under the curve 0.89). A score of ≥11 points had a sensitivity and specificity of 83.3% and 98.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The 50-50 and bilirubin >7-mg/dL rules were not accurate in predicting 90-day mortality. Rather, a composite integer-based risk score based on

  6. Clostridium difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS): A novel severity score to predict mortality among hospitalized patients with Clostridium difficile infection

    PubMed Central

    Kassam, Zain; Fabersunne, Camila Cribb; Smith, Mark B.; Alm, Eric J.; Kaplan, Gilaad G.; Nguyen, Geoffrey C.; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N.

    2016-01-01

    Background Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is public health threat and associated with significant mortality. However, there is a paucity of objectively derived CDI severity scoring systems to predict mortality. Aims To develop a novel CDI risk score to predict mortality entitled: Clostridium difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS). Methods We obtained data from the United States 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database. All CDI-associated hospitalizations were identified using discharge codes (ICD-9-CM, 008.45). Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to identify independent predictors of mortality. CARDS was calculated by assigning a numeric weight to each parameter based on their odds ratio in the final logistic model. Predictive properties of model discrimination were assessed using the c-statistic and validated in an independent sample using the 2010 NIS database. Results We identified 77,776 hospitalizations, yielding an estimate of 374,747 cases with an associated diagnosis of CDI in the United States, 8% of whom died in the hospital. The 8 severity score predictors were identified on multivariate analysis: age, cardiopulmonary disease, malignancy, diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, acute renal failure, liver disease and ICU admission, with weights ranging from −1 (for diabetes) to 5 (for ICU admission). The overall risk score in the cohort ranged from 0 to 18. Mortality increased significantly as CARDS increased. CDI-associated mortality was 1.2% with a CARDS of 0 compared to 100% with CARDS of 18. The model performed equally well in our validation cohort. Conclusion CARDS is a promising simple severity score to predict mortality among those hospitalized with CDI. PMID:26849527

  7. Clostridium difficile associated risk of death score (CARDS): a novel severity score to predict mortality among hospitalised patients with C. difficile infection.

    PubMed

    Kassam, Z; Cribb Fabersunne, C; Smith, M B; Alm, E J; Kaplan, G G; Nguyen, G C; Ananthakrishnan, A N

    2016-03-01

    Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is a public health threat and associated with significant mortality. However, there is a paucity of objectively derived CDI severity scoring systems to predict mortality. To develop a novel CDI risk score to predict mortality entitled: Clostridium difficile associated risk of death score (CARDS). We obtained data from the United States 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database. All CDI-associated hospitalisations were identified using discharge codes (ICD-9-CM, 008.45). Multivariate logistic regression was utilised to identify independent predictors of mortality. Clostridium difficile associated risk of death score was calculated by assigning a numeric weight to each parameter based on their odds ratio in the final logistic model. Predictive properties of model discrimination were assessed using the c-statistic and validated in an independent sample using the 2010 NIS database. We identified 77 776 hospitalisations, yielding an estimate of 374 747 cases with an associated diagnosis of CDI in the US, 8% of whom died in the hospital. The eight severity score predictors were identified on multivariate analysis: age, cardiopulmonary disease, malignancy, diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, acute renal failure, liver disease and ICU admission, with weights ranging from -1 (for diabetes) to 5 (for ICU admission). The overall risk score in the cohort ranged from 0 to 18. Mortality increased significantly as CARDS increased. CDI-associated mortality was 1.2% with a CARDS of 0 compared to 100% with CARDS of 18. The model performed equally well in our validation cohort. Clostridium difficile associated risk of death score is a promising simple severity score to predict mortality among those hospitalised with C. difficile infection. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. The Aristotle Comprehensive Complexity score predicts mortality and morbidity after congenital heart surgery.

    PubMed

    Bojan, Mirela; Gerelli, Sébastien; Gioanni, Simone; Pouard, Philippe; Vouhé, Pascal

    2011-04-01

    The Aristotle Comprehensive Complexity (ACC) score has been proposed for complexity adjustment in the analysis of outcome after congenital heart surgery. The score is the sum of the Aristotle Basic Complexity score, largely used but poorly related to mortality and morbidity, and of the Comprehensive Complexity items accounting for comorbidities and procedure-specific and anatomic variability. This study aims to demonstrate the ability of the ACC score to predict 30-day mortality and morbidity assessed by the length of the intensive care unit (ICU) stay. We retrospectively enrolled patients undergoing congenital heart surgery in our institution. We modeled the ACC score as a continuous variable, mortality as a binary variable, and length of ICU stay as a censored variable. For each mortality and morbidity model we performed internal validation by bootstrapping and assessed overall performance by R(2), calibration by the calibration slope, and discrimination by the c index. Among all 1,454 patients enrolled, 30-day mortality rate was 3.4% and median length of ICU stay was 3 days. The ACC score strongly related to mortality, but related to length of ICU stay only during the first postoperative week. For the mortality model, R(2) = 0.24, calibration slope = 0.98, c index = 0.86, and 95% confidence interval was 0.82 to 0.91. For the morbidity model, R(2) = 0.094, calibration slope = 0.94, c index = 0.64, and 95% confidence interval was 0.62 to 0.66. The ACC score predicts 30-day mortality and length of ICU stay during the first postoperative week. The score is an adequate tool for complexity adjustment in the analysis of outcome after congenital heart surgery. Copyright © 2011 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Clinical characteristics and mortality risk prediction in critically ill children in Malaysian Borneo.

    PubMed

    Ganesan, Indra; Thomas, Terrence; Ng, Fon En; Soo, Thian Lian

    2014-05-01

    Mortality risk prediction scores are important for benchmarking quality of care in paediatric intensive care units (PICUs). We aimed to benchmark PICU outcomes at our hospital against the Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 (PIM2) mortality risk prediction score, and evaluate differences in diagnosis on admission and outcomes between Malaysian and immigrant children. We prospectively collected demographic and clinical data on paediatric medical patients admitted to the PICU of Sabah Women's and Children's Hospital in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia. The PIM2 risk score for mortality was tabulated. Of the 131 patients who met the inclusion criteria, data was available for 115 patients. The mean age of the patients was 2.6 ± 3.8 years, with 79% of the cohort aged less than five years. Patients were mainly of Kadazan (38%) and Bajau (30%) descent, and 26% of patients were non-citizens. Leading diagnoses on admission were respiratory (37%), neurological (18%) and infectious (17%) disorders. Out of the 29 patients who died, 23 (79%) were Malaysians and the main mortality diagnostic categories were respiratory disorder (22%), septicaemia (22%), haemato-oncological disease (17%) and neurological disorder (13%). Calculated standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were not significantly > 1 for any patient category for variables such as age and admission diagnosis. However, infants less than two years old with comorbidities were significantly worse (SMR 2.61, 95% confidence interval 1.02-6.66). The patient profile at our centre was similar to that reported from other PICUs in Asia. The PIM2 score is a useful mortality risk prediction model for our population.

  10. Prevalence of frailty and its ability to predict in hospital delirium, falls, and 6-month mortality in hospitalized older patients.

    PubMed

    Joosten, Etienne; Demuynck, Mathias; Detroyer, Elke; Milisen, Koen

    2014-01-06

    The prevalence and significance of frailty are seldom studied in hospitalized patients. Aim of this study is to evaluate the prevalence of frailty and to determine the extent that frailty predicts delirium, falls and mortality in hospitalized older patients. In a prospective study of 220 older patients, frailty was determined using the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and the Study of Osteoporotic Fracture (SOF) frailty index. Patients were classified as nonfrail, prefrail, and frail, according to the specific criteria. Covariates included clinical and laboratory parameters. Outcome variables included in hospital delirium and falls, and 6-month mortality. The CHS frailty index was available in all 220 patients, of which 1.5% were classified as being nonfrail, 58.5% as prefrail, and 40% as frail. The SOF frailty index was available in 204 patients, of which 16% were classified as being nonfrail, 51.5% as prefrail, and 32.5% as frail. Frailty, as identified by the CHS and SOF indexes, was a significant risk factor for 6-month mortality. However, after adjustment for multiple risk factors, frailty remained a strong independent risk factor only for the model with the CHS index (OR 4.7, 95% CI 1.7-12.8). Frailty (identified by CHS and SOF indexes) was not found to be a risk factor for delirium or falls. Frailty, as measured by the CHS index, is an independent risk factor for 6-month mortality. The CHS and the SOF indexes have limited value as risk assessment tools for specific geriatric syndromes (e.g., falls and delirium) in hospitalized older patients.

  11. Retuning mortality risk prediction in paediatric cardiac surgery: the additional role of early postoperative metabolic and respiratory profile.

    PubMed

    Ranucci, Marco; Pistuddi, Valeria; Pisani, Giulia Pinuccia; Carlucci, Concetta; Isgrò, Giuseppe; Frigiola, Alessandro; Pomè, Giuseppe; Giamberti, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The existing risk stratification scores for paediatric patients undergoing cardiac surgery include the Aristotle Basic Complexity (ABC) Score, the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery-1 (RACHS-1) Score and the Aristotle Comprehensive Complexity (ACC) Score. They are all based on the nature of the surgical operation (ABC and RACHS-1 Scores) with possible adjustment for a number of patient conditions (ACC Score). The present study investigates if the early postoperative parameters may be used to improve the preoperative mortality risk prediction. A retrospective study on 1392 consecutive patients aged ≤12 years old, undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass and without a residual right-to-left shunt was conducted. The ABC Score and metabolic and respiratory postoperative parameters at arrival in the intensive care unit were tested for association and discriminative power for operative mortality. The ABC yielded a c-statistic of 0.746. Additional independent predictors of operative mortality were postoperative hypoxia [Formula: see text] and arterial blood lactates. In a multivariable model including the ABC Score, postoperative hypoxia and arterial blood lactates remained independently associated with operative mortality. A modified ABC Score was created, consisting of the ABC Score plus 1.5 points in case of postoperative hypoxia plus 1 point per each 1 mmol/l of arterial blood lactates. The new model was significantly (P = 0.043) more discriminative than the ABC Score, with a c-statistic of 0.803. Early postoperative respiratory and metabolic parameters increased the accuracy and discrimination of the ABC Score. An external validation is needed to confirm our results. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  12. Cardiovascular mortality prediction in veterans with arm exercise vs pharmacologic myocardial perfusion imaging.

    PubMed

    Martin, Wade H; Xian, Hong; Chandiramani, Pooja; Bainter, Emily; Klein, Andrew J P

    2015-08-01

    No data exist comparing outcome prediction from arm exercise vs pharmacologic myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) stress test variables in patients unable to perform treadmill exercise. In this retrospective study, 2,173 consecutive lower extremity disabled veterans aged 65.4 ± 11.0years (mean ± SD) underwent either pharmacologic MPI (1730 patients) or arm exercise stress tests (443 patients) with MPI (n = 253) or electrocardiography alone (n = 190) between 1997 and 2002. Cox multivariate regression models and reclassification analysis by integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to characterize stress test and MPI predictors of cardiovascular mortality at ≥10-year follow-up after inclusion of significant demographic, clinical, and other variables. Cardiovascular death occurred in 561 pharmacologic MPI and 102 arm exercise participants. Multivariate-adjusted cardiovascular mortality was predicted by arm exercise resting metabolic equivalents (hazard ratio [HR] 0.52, 95% CI 0.39-0.69, P < .001), 1-minute heart rate recovery (HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44-0.86, P < .001), and pharmacologic and arm exercise delta (peak-rest) heart rate (both P < .001). Only an abnormal arm exercise MPI prognosticated cardiovascular death by multivariate Cox analysis (HR 1.98, 95% CI 1.04-3.77, P < .05). Arm exercise MPI defect number, type, and size provided IDI over covariates for prediction of cardiovascular mortality (IDI = 0.074-0.097). Only pharmacologic defect size prognosticated cardiovascular mortality (IDI = 0.022). Arm exercise capacity, heart rate recovery, and pharmacologic and arm exercise heart rate responses are robust predictors of cardiovascular mortality. Arm exercise MPI results are equivalent and possibly superior to pharmacologic MPI for cardiovascular mortality prediction in patients unable to perform treadmill exercise. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  13. Predicting postfire Douglas-fir beetle attacks and tree mortality in the northern Rocky Mountains

    Treesearch

    Sharon Hood; Barbara Bentz

    2007-01-01

    Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) were monitored for 4 years following three wildfires. Logistic regression analyses were used to develop models predicting the probability of attack by Douglas-fir beetle (Dendroctonus pseudotsugae Hopkins, 1905) and the probability of Douglas-fir mortality within 4 years following...

  14. Prediction of growth and mortality of Oregon White Oak in the Pacific Northwest.

    Treesearch

    Peter J. Gould; David D. Marshall; Constance A. Harrington

    2008-01-01

    We developed new equations to predict Oregon white oak (Quercus garryana Dougl. ex Hook.) development with ORGANON, a stand-development model that is widely used in the Pacific Northwest. Tree size, competitive status, crown ratio, and site productivity were statistically significant predictors of growth and mortality. Three scenarios were...

  15. Childhood-Onset Disease Predicts Mortality in an Adult Cohort of Patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

    PubMed Central

    Hersh, Aimee O.; Trupin, Laura; Yazdany, Jinoos; Panopalis, Peter; Julian, Laura; Katz, Patricia; Criswell, Lindsey A.; Yelin, Edward

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine childhood-onset disease as a predictor of mortality in a cohort of adult patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods Data were derived from the University of California Lupus Outcomes Study, a longitudinal cohort of 957 adult subjects with SLE that includes 98 subjects with childhood-onset SLE. Baseline and follow-up data were obtained via telephone interviews conducted between 2002-2007. The number of deaths during 5 years of follow-up was determined and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for the cohort, and across age groups, were calculated. Kaplan-Meier life table analysis was used to compare mortality rates between childhood (defined as SLE diagnosis <18 years) and adult-onset SLE. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine predictors of mortality. Results During the median follow-up period of 48 months, 72 deaths (7.5% of subjects) occurred, including 9 (12.5%) among those with childhood-onset SLE. The overall SMR was 2.5 (CI 2.0-3.2). In Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, after adjusting for age, childhood-onset subjects were at increased risk for mortality throughout the follow-up period (p<0.0001). In a multivariate model adjusting for age, disease duration and other covariates, childhood-onset SLE was independently associated with an increased mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.3-7.3), as was low socioeconomic status measured by education (HR: 1.9; 95% CI 1.1-3.2) and end stage renal disease (HR: 2.1; 95% CI 1.1-4.0). Conclusion Childhood-onset SLE was a strong predictor of mortality in this cohort. Interventions are needed to prevent early mortality in this population. PMID:20235215

  16. Artificial Neural Networks for Early Prediction of Mortality in Patients with Non Variceal Upper GI Bleeding (UGIB)

    PubMed Central

    Grossi, Enzo; Marmo, Riccardo; Intraligi, Marco; Buscema, Massimo

    2008-01-01

    Background Mortality for non variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is clinically relevant in the first 12–24 hours of the onset of haemorrhage and therefore identification of clinical factors predictive of the risk of death before endoscopic examination may allow for early corrective therapeutic intervention. Aim 1) Identify simple and early clinical variables predictive of the risk of death in patients with non variceal UGIB; 2) assess previsional gain of a predictive model developed with conventional statistics vs. that developed with artificial neural networks (ANNs). Methods and results Analysis was performed on 807 patients with nonvariceal UGIB (527 males, 280 females), as a part of a multicentre Italian study. The mortality was considered “bleeding-related” if occurred within 30 days from the index bleeding episode. A total of 50 independent variables were analysed, 49 of which clinico-anamnestic, all collected prior to endoscopic examination plus the haemoglobin value measured on admission in the emergency department. Death occurred in 42 (5.2%). Conventional statistical techniques (linear discriminant analysis) were compared with ANNs (Twist® system-Semeion) adopting the same result validation protocol with random allocation of the sample in training and testing subsets and subsequent cross-over. ANNs resulted to be significantly more accurate than LDA with an overall accuracy rate near to 90%. Conclusion Artificial neural networks technology is highly promising in the development of accurate diagnostic tools designed to recognize patients at high risk of death for UGIB. PMID:27429551

  17. Mortality prediction in stable hemodialysis patients is refined by YKL-40, a 40-kDa glycoprotein associated with inflammation.

    PubMed

    Lorenz, Georg; Schmalenberg, Michael; Kemmner, Stephan; Haller, Bernhard; Steubl, Dominik; Pham, Dang; Schreiegg, Anita; Bachmann, Quirin; Schmidt, Alina; Haderer, Sandra; Huber, Monika; Angermann, Susanne; Günthner, Roman; Braunisch, Matthias; Hauser, Christine; Reichelt, Anna-Lena; Matschkal, Julia; Suttmann, Yana; Moog, Philipp; Stock, Konrad; Küchle, Claudius; Thürmel, Klaus; Renders, Lutz; Bauer, Axel; Baumann, Marcus; Heemann, Uwe; Luppa, Peter B; Schmaderer, Christoph

    2017-09-20

    Chronic inflammation contributes to increased mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients. YKL-40 is a novel marker of inflammation, tissue remodeling, and highly expressed in macrophages inside vascular lesions. Elevated levels of YKL-40 have been reported for HD patients but how it integrates into the proinflammatory mediator network as a predictor of mortality remains elusive. We studied serum YKL-40, Interleukin-6 (IL-6), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1), and interferon-gamma induced protein-10 (IP-10) in 475 chronic hemodialysis patients. Patients were followed for mortality for a median of 37 [interquartile range: 25-49] months and checked for interrelation of the measured mediators. To plot cumulative incidence functions, patients were stratified into terciles per YKL-40, IL-6, MCP-1, and IP-10 levels. Multivariable Cox regression models were built to examine associations of YKL-40, IP-10, and MCP-1 with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Net reclassification improvement was calculated for the final models containing YKL-40 and IL-6. Increased YKL-40 was independently associated with age, IP-10, and IL-6 serum levels. After adjustment for demographic and laboratory parameters, comorbidities, and IL-6, only YKL-40 significantly improved risk prediction for all-cause (hazard ratio 1.4; 95% confidence interval 1.1-1.8) and cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio 1.5; 95% confidence interval 1.03-2.2). Thus, in contrast to other biomarkers of aberrant macrophage activation, YKL-40 reflects inflammatory activity, which is not covered by IL-6. Mechanistic and prospective studies are needed to test for causal involvement of YKL-40 and whether it might qualify as a therapeutic target. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Delta-He: a novel marker of inflammation predicting mortality and ESA response in peritoneal dialysis patients

    PubMed Central

    Danielson, Kristin; Beshara, Soheir; Qureshi, Abdul Rashid; Heimbürger, Olof; Lindholm, Bengt; Hansson, Magnus; Hylander, Britta; Germanis, Guna; Stenvinkel, Peter; Barany, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Background Inflammation impairs erythropoiesis, iron availability and is associated with a higher mortality risk in patients with end-stage renal disease. We studied the associations between Delta-He [the difference between the reticulocyte haemoglobin content (Ret-He) and erythrocyte haemoglobin content], a suggested marker of iron availability, and markers of inflammation, iron status, response to erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) and mortality in prevalent peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Methods Eighty-two PD patients were followed weekly for 12 weeks with an additional follow-up of 36 months. Delta-He, Ret-He and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) were measured weekly and interleukin-6 (IL-6) and iron markers every fourth week. Mortality risk was assessed by Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for potential confounding factors. The relationships between ESA response, inflammatory markers, iron markers and Delta-He were evaluated in the PD patients. The relationship between Delta-He and iron markers was analysed in 87 healthy subjects. Results Delta-He correlated with IL-6 (rho = 0.48, P < 0.001), hs-CRP (rho = 0.36, P < 0.001) and ESA hyporesponsivess index (EHRI; rho = −0.44, P < 0.001) in the PD patients. Delta-He did not correlate with iron markers in PD patients nor in healthy subjects. The mean Delta-He levels were significantly different between the tertiles of EHRI (P < 0.01). Delta-He was associated with all-cause mortality risk in PD patients after adjusting for age, gender, hs-CRP, comorbidity and nutritional status [OR 0.70 (0.51–0.96), P < 0.05]. Conclusions Delta-He independently predicts all-cause mortality in PD patients after adjusting for potential confounders and is a predictor of ESA response in PD patients. PMID:25852889

  19. Predicting 30-Day Mortality for Patients With Acute Heart Failure in the Emergency Department: A Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Miró, Òscar; Rossello, Xavier; Gil, Víctor; Martín-Sánchez, Francisco Javier; Llorens, Pere; Herrero-Puente, Pablo; Jacob, Javier; Bueno, Héctor; Pocock, Stuart J

    2017-10-03

    Physicians in the emergency department (ED) need additional tools to stratify patients with acute heart failure (AHF) according to risk. To predict mortality using data that are readily available at ED admission. Prospective cohort study. 34 Spanish EDs. The derivation cohort included 4867 consecutive ED patients admitted during 2009 to 2011. The validation cohort comprised 3229 patients admitted in 2014. Eighty-eight candidate risk factors and 30-day mortality. Thirteen independent risk factors were identified in the derivation cohort and were combined into an overall score, the MEESSI-AHF (Multiple Estimation of risk based on the Emergency department Spanish Score In patients with AHF) score. This score predicted 30-day mortality with excellent discrimination (c-statistic, 0.836) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.99) and provided a steep gradient in 30-day mortality across risk groups (<2% for patients in the 2 lowest risk quintiles and 45% in the highest risk decile). These characteristics were confirmed in the validation cohort (c-statistic, 0.828). Multiple sensitivity analyses did not find important amounts of confounding or bias. The study was confined to a single country. Participating EDs were not selected randomly. Many patients had missing data. Measurement of some risk factors was subjective. This tool has excellent discrimination and calibration and was validated in a different cohort from the one that was used to develop it. Physicians can consider using this tool to inform clinical decisions as further studies are done to determine whether the tool enhances physician decision making and improves patient outcomes. Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spanish Ministry of Health; Fundació La Marató de TV3; and Catalonia Govern.

  20. Physical Stress Echocardiography: Prediction of Mortality and Cardiac Events in Patients with Exercise Test showing Ischemia.

    PubMed

    Araujo, Ana Carla Pereira de; Santos, Bruno F de Oliveira; Calasans, Flavia Ricci; Pinto, Ibraim M Francisco; Oliveira, Daniel Pio de; Melo, Luiza Dantas; Andrade, Stephanie Macedo; Tavares, Irlaneide da Silva; Sousa, Antonio Carlos Sobral; Oliveira, Joselina Luzia Menezes

    2014-11-01

    Background: Studies have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of physical stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease. However, the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia is limited. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of physical stress echocardiography in the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort in which 866 consecutive patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia, and who underwent physical stress echocardiography were studied. Patients were divided into two groups: with physical stress echocardiography negative (G1) or positive (G2) for myocardial ischemia. The endpoints analyzed were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events, defined as cardiac death and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Results: G2 comprised 205 patients (23.7%). During the mean 85.6 ± 15.0-month follow-up, there were 26 deaths, of which six were cardiac deaths, and 25 non-fatal myocardial infarction cases. The independent predictors of mortality were: age, diabetes mellitus, and positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.20 - 6.01; p = 0.016). The independent predictors of major cardiac events were: age, previous coronary artery disease, positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 - 6.53; p = 0.022) and absence of a 10% increase in ejection fraction. All-cause mortality and the incidence of major cardiac events were significantly higher in G2 (p < 0. 001 and p = 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: Physical stress echocardiography provides additional prognostic information in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia.Fundamento: Estudos têm demonstrado a acurácia diagnóstica e o valor prognóstico da ecocardiografia com estresse f

  1. Height loss starting in middle age predicts increased mortality in the elderly.

    PubMed

    Masunari, Naomi; Fujiwara, Saeko; Kasagi, Fumiyoshi; Takahashi, Ikuno; Yamada, Michiko; Nakamura, Toshitaka

    2012-01-01

    was an independent risk factor for cardiovascular and respiratory-disease mortality among the elderly, even after adjusting for potential risk factors.

  2. Pulmonary Hypertension an Independent Risk Factor for Death in Intensive Care Unit: Correlation of Hemodynamic Factors with Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Saydain, Ghulam; Awan, Aamir; Manickam, Palaniappan; Kleinow, Paul; Badr, Safwan

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Critically ill patients with pulmonary hypertension (PH) pose additional challenges due to the existence of right ventricular (RV) dysfunction. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of hemodynamic factors on the outcome. METHODS We reviewed the records of patients with a diagnosis of PH admitted to the intensive care unit. In addition to evaluating traditional hemodynamic parameters, we defined severe PH as right atrial pressure >20 mmHg, mean pulmonary artery pressure >55 mmHg, or cardiac index (CI) <2 L/min/m2. We also defined the RV functional index (RFI) as pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) adjusted for CI as PASP/CI; increasing values reflect RV dysfunction. RESULTS Fifty-three patients (mean age 60 years, 72% women, 79% Blacks), were included in the study. Severe PH was present in 68% of patients who had higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (6.8 ± 3.3 vs 3.8 ± 1.6; P = 0.001) and overall in-hospital mortality (36% vs 6%; P = 0.02) compared to nonsevere patients, although Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores (19.9 ± 7.5 vs 18.5 ± 6.04; P = 0.52) were similar and sepsis was more frequent among nonsevere PH patients (31 vs 64%; P = 0.02). Severe PH (P = 0.04), lower mean arterial pressure (P = 0.04), and CI (P = 0.01); need for invasive ventilation (P = 0.02) and vasopressors (P = 0.03); and higher SOFA (P = 0.001), APACHE II (P = 0.03), pulmonary vascular resistance index (PVRI) (P = 0.01), and RFI (P = 0.004) were associated with increased mortality. In a multivariate model, SOFA [OR = 1.45, 95% confidence interval (C.I.) = 1.09–1.93; P = 0.01], PVRI (OR = 1.12, 95% C.I. = 1.02–1.24; P = 0.02), and increasing RFI (OR = 1.06, 95% C.I. = 1.01–1.11; P = 0.01) were independently associated with mortality. CONCLUSION PH is an independent risk factor for mortality in critically ill patients. Composite factors rather than individual hemodynamic parameters are better predictors of

  3. DNA methylation signatures in peripheral blood strongly predict all-cause mortality

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yan; Wilson, Rory; Heiss, Jonathan; Breitling, Lutz P.; Saum, Kai-Uwe; Schöttker, Ben; Holleczek, Bernd; Waldenberger, Melanie; Peters, Annette; Brenner, Hermann

    2017-01-01

    DNA methylation (DNAm) has been revealed to play a role in various diseases. Here we performed epigenome-wide screening and validation to identify mortality-related DNAm signatures in a general population-based cohort with up to 14 years follow-up. In the discovery panel in a case-cohort approach, 11,063 CpGs reach genome-wide significance (FDR<0.05). 58 CpGs, mapping to 38 well-known disease-related genes and 14 intergenic regions, are confirmed in a validation panel. A mortality risk score based on ten selected CpGs exhibits strong association with all-cause mortality, showing hazard ratios (95% CI) of 2.16 (1.10–4.24), 3.42 (1.81–6.46) and 7.36 (3.69–14.68), respectively, for participants with scores of 1, 2–5 and 5+ compared with a score of 0. These associations are confirmed in an independent cohort and are independent from the ‘epigenetic clock'. In conclusion, DNAm of multiple disease-related genes are strongly linked to mortality outcomes. The DNAm-based risk score might be informative for risk assessment and stratification. PMID:28303888

  4. Nutritional risk screening 2002 and ASA score predict mortality after elective liver resection for malignancy

    PubMed Central

    Ferreira, Nelio

    2017-01-01

    Introduction The aim of the study was to evaluate whether Nutritional risk screening 2002 (NRS 2002) at hospital admission may predict postoperative mortality and complications within 90 days after elective liver resection for malignancy. Material and methods A retrospective cohort study of a prospective database was performed. Two-hundred and three patients with elective liver resection for malignancy between 9 November 2007 and 27 May 2014 were included. Clinical data, NRS 2002, surgical procedures and histology were recorded. The primary endpoint was 90-day mortality. Complications were registered within 90 days postoperatively according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. Results The 90-day mortality was 5.9% and the overall complication rate was 59.1%. Multivariate analysis identified NRS 2002 score ≥ 4 (odds ratio (OR) = 9.24; p = 0.005) and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score ≥ 3 (OR = 6.20; p = 0.009) as predictors of 90-day mortality. The 90-day mortality was 27.6% (8/29) for patients with both risk factors (NRS 2002 score ≥ 4 and ASA score ≥ 3) vs. 2.3% (4/174) for patients without or with only one risk factor (p < 0.001). Conclusions In the present study NRS 2002 score ≥ 4 and ASA score ≥ 3 were predictors of 90-day mortality after elective liver resection for malignancy. PMID:28261289

  5. Nutritional risk screening 2002 and ASA score predict mortality after elective liver resection for malignancy.

    PubMed

    Zacharias, Thomas; Ferreira, Nelio

    2017-03-01

    The aim of the study was to evaluate whether Nutritional risk screening 2002 (NRS 2002) at hospital admission may predict postoperative mortality and complications within 90 days after elective liver resection for malignancy. A retrospective cohort study of a prospective database was performed. Two-hundred and three patients with elective liver resection for malignancy between 9 November 2007 and 27 May 2014 were included. Clinical data, NRS 2002, surgical procedures and histology were recorded. The primary endpoint was 90-day mortality. Complications were registered within 90 days postoperatively according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. The 90-day mortality was 5.9% and the overall complication rate was 59.1%. Multivariate analysis identified NRS 2002 score ≥ 4 (odds ratio (OR) = 9.24; p = 0.005) and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score ≥ 3 (OR = 6.20; p = 0.009) as predictors of 90-day mortality. The 90-day mortality was 27.6% (8/29) for patients with both risk factors (NRS 2002 score ≥ 4 and ASA score ≥ 3) vs. 2.3% (4/174) for patients without or with only one risk factor (p < 0.001). In the present study NRS 2002 score ≥ 4 and ASA score ≥ 3 were predictors of 90-day mortality after elective liver resection for malignancy.

  6. Growth rate predicts mortality of Abies concolor in both burned and unburned stands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Mutch, Linda S.; Johnson, Veronica G.; Esperanza, Annie M.; Parsons, David J.

    2003-01-01

    Tree mortality is often the result of both long-term and short-term stress. Growth rate, an indicator of long-term stress, is often used to estimate probability of death in unburned stands. In contrast, probability of death in burned stands is modeled as a function of short-term disturbance severity. We sought to narrow this conceptual gap by determining (i) whether growth rate, in addition to crown scorch, is a predictor of mortality in burned stands and (ii) whether a single, simple model could predict tree death in both burned and unburned stands. Observations of 2622 unburned and 688 burned Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. (white fir) in the Sierra Nevada of California, U.S.A., indicated that growth rate was a significant predictor of mortality in the unburned stands, while both crown scorch and radial growth were significant predictors of mortality in the burned stands. Applying the burned stand model to unburned stands resulted in an overestimation of the unburned stand mortality rate. While failing to create a general model of tree death for A. concolor, our findings underscore the idea that similar processes may affect mortality in disturbed and undisturbed stands.

  7. Morbidity and mortality predictivity of nutritional assessment tools in the postoperative care unit.

    PubMed

    Özbilgin, Şule; Hanc, Volkan; Ömür, Dilek; Özbilgin, Mücahit; Tosun, Mine; Yurtlu, Serhan; Küçükgüçlü, Semih; Arkan, Atalay

    2016-10-01

    The aim was to evaluate the nutritional situation of patients admitted to the Postoperative Acute Care Unit using classic methods of objective anthropometry, systemic evaluation methods, and Nutrition Risk in Critically Ill (NUTRIC) score, and to compare them as a predictor of morbidity and mortality.At admission to the postoperative care unit, patients undergoing various surgeries were assessed for the following items: Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS)-2002, Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), and NUTRIC score, anthropometric measurements, serum total protein, serum albumin, and lymphocyte count. Patients were monitored for postoperative complications until death or discharge. Correlation of complications with these parameters was also analyzed.A total of 152 patients were included in the study. In this study a positive correlation was determined between mortality and NRS-2002, SGA, CCI, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation , Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment, and NUTRIC score, whereas a negative correlation was determined between mortality and NRI. There was a correlation between NUTRIC score and pneumonia, development of atrial fibrillation, delirium, renal failure, inotrope use, and duration of mechanical ventilation. In our study group of postoperative patients, MNA had no predictive properties for any complication, whereas SGA had no predictive properties for any complications other than duration of hospital stay and mortality.The NUTRIC score is an important indicator of mortality and morbidity in postoperative surgical patients. NRI correlated with many postoperative complications, and though SGA and NRS were correlated with mortality, they were not correlated with the majority of complications. MNA was determined not to have any correlation with any complication, mortality, and duration of hospital stay in our patient group.

  8. Cardiac Biomarkers Predict 1-Year Mortality in Elderly Patients Undergoing Hip Fracture Surgery.

    PubMed

    Katsanos, Spyridon; Mavrogenis, Andreas F; Kafkas, Nikolaos; Sardu, Celestino; Kamperidis, Vasileios; Katsanou, Panagiota; Farmakis, Dimitrios; Parissis, John

    2017-05-01

    This prospective study included 152 elderly patients (mean age, 80 years; range, 72-88 years) with a hip fracture treated surgically. Comorbidities were evaluated, and B-type natriuretic peptide was measured at baseline and at postoperative days 4 and 5 in addition to troponin I. Major cardiac events were recorded, and 1-year mortality was assessed. Comorbidity models with the important multivariate predictors of 1-year mortality were analyzed. Overall, 9 patients (6%) experienced major cardiac events postoperatively during their hospitalization. Three patients (2%) died postoperatively, at days 5, 7, and 10, from autopsy-confirmed myocardial infarction. Three patients (2%) experienced a nonfatal myocardial infarction, and 3 patients (2%) experienced acute heart failure. At 1-year follow-up, 37 patients (24%) had died. Age older than 80 years (P=.000), renal failure (P=.016), cardiovascular disease (P=.003), respiratory disease (P=.010), Parkinson disease (P=.024), and dementia (P=.000) were univariate predictors of 1-year mortality. However, in the multivariate model, only age older than 80 years (P=.000) and dementia (P=.024) were important predictors of 1-year mortality. In all comorbidity models, age older than 80 years and dementia were important predictors of 1-year mortality. Postoperative increase in B-type natriuretic peptide was the most important predictor of 1-year mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed a threshold of 90 ng/mL of preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide (area under the curve=0.773, 95% confidence interval, 0.691-0.855, P<.001) had 82% sensitivity and 62% specificity to predict 1-year mortality. Similarly, a threshold of 190 ng/mL of postoperative B-type natriuretic peptide (area under the curve=0.753, 95% confidence interval, 0.662-0.844, P<.001) had 70% sensitivity and 77% specificity to predict the study endpoint. [Orthopedics. 2017; 40(3):e417-e424.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

  9. A multiparameter model predicting in-hospital mortality in malignant cerebral infarction.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chien-Fu; Lin, Ruey-Tay; Lin, Hsiu-Fen; Chao, A-Ching

    2017-07-01

    The early identification of patients with large hemisphere infarctions (LHIs) at risk of fatal brain edema may result in better outcomes. A quantitative model using parameters obtained at admission may be a predictor of in-hospital mortality from LHI.This prospective study enrolled all patients with LHI involving >50% of the middle cerebral artery (MCA) admitted to our neurological intensive care unit within 48 hours of symptom onset. Early clinical and radiographic parameters and the baseline CHADS2 score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 years, diabetes mellitus, stroke [double weight]) were analyzed regarding their ability to predict patient outcomes.Seventy-seven patients with LHIs were identified, 33 (42.9%) with complete MCA infarction (CMCA), and 44 (57.1%) with incomplete MCA infarction (IMCA). The predictors of CMCA score included: >1/3 early hypodensity in computed tomography findings, hyperdense MCA sign, brain edema, initial National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score ≥17, and stroke in progression during the 1st 5 days of admission. The cutoff CMCA score was 2, with a sensitivity of 81.8% and specificity of 70.5%. Mortality score 1, used for predicting in-hospital mortality from LHI, included CMCA and CHADS2 scores ≥4 (sensitivity 100.0%, specificity 57.4%), and mortality score 2 included CMCA and CHADS2 scores ≥4, and NIHSS score ≥26, during the 1st 5 days (sensitivity 100.0%, specificity 91.7%).Patients qualifying for a mortality score of 2 were at high-risk of in-hospital mortality from LHI. These findings may aid in identifying patients who may benefit from invasive therapeutic strategies, and in better describing the characteristics of those at risk of mortality.

  10. Morbidity and mortality predictivity of nutritional assessment tools in the postoperative care unit

    PubMed Central

    Özbilgin, Şule; Hancı, Volkan; Ömür, Dilek; Özbilgin, Mücahit; Tosun, Mine; Yurtlu, Serhan; Küçükgüçlü, Semih; Arkan, Atalay

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The aim was to evaluate the nutritional situation of patients admitted to the Postoperative Acute Care Unit using classic methods of objective anthropometry, systemic evaluation methods, and Nutrition Risk in Critically Ill (NUTRIC) score, and to compare them as a predictor of morbidity and mortality. At admission to the postoperative care unit, patients undergoing various surgeries were assessed for the following items: Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS)-2002, Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), and NUTRIC score, anthropometric measurements, serum total protein, serum albumin, and lymphocyte count. Patients were monitored for postoperative complications until death or discharge. Correlation of complications with these parameters was also analyzed. A total of 152 patients were included in the study. In this study a positive correlation was determined between mortality and NRS-2002, SGA, CCI, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation , Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment, and NUTRIC score, whereas a negative correlation was determined between mortality and NRI. There was a correlation between NUTRIC score and pneumonia, development of atrial fibrillation, delirium, renal failure, inotrope use, and duration of mechanical ventilation. In our study group of postoperative patients, MNA had no predictive properties for any complication, whereas SGA had no predictive properties for any complications other than duration of hospital stay and mortality. The NUTRIC score is an important indicator of mortality and morbidity in postoperative surgical patients. NRI correlated with many postoperative complications, and though SGA and NRS were correlated with mortality, they were not correlated with the majority of complications. MNA was determined not to have any correlation with any complication, mortality, and duration of hospital stay in our patient group. PMID

  11. Circulating resistin is a significant predictor of mortality independently from cardiovascular comorbidities in elderly, non-diabetic subjects with chronic kidney disease.

    PubMed

    Marouga, Anna; Dalamaga, Maria; Kastania, Anastasia N; Kroupis, Christos; Lagiou, Maria; Saounatsou, Koralia; Dimas, Kleanthi; Vlahakos, Demetrios V

    2016-01-01

    Resistin is associated with inflammation, atherosclerosis and cardiovascular (CV) disease. To associate circulating resistin with all-cause and CV mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. Serum resistin was determined in a cohort of 80 elderly, non-diabetic patients with stable CKD at different stages in a follow-up period of 5 years. Circulating resistin was significantly elevated in deceased compared to alive patients. Resistin emerged as an independent biomarker of all-cause and CV mortality after a 5-year follow-up period. Elevated circulating resistin was a significant independent predictor of CV and all-cause mortality in elderly, non-diabetic CKD patients.

  12. Does life satisfaction predict five-year mortality in community-living older adults?

    PubMed

    St John, Philip D; Mackenzie, Corey; Menec, Verena

    2015-01-01

    Depression and depressive symptoms predict death, but it is less clear if more general measures of life satisfaction (LS) predict death. Our objectives were to determine: (1) if LS predicts mortality over a five-year period in community-living older adults; and (2) which aspects of LS predict death. 1751 adults over the age of 65 who were living in the community were sampled from a representative population sampling frame in 1991/1992 and followed five years later. Age, gender, and education were self-reported. An index of multimorbidity and the Older American Resource Survey measured health and functional status, and the Terrible-Delightful Scale assessed overall LS as well as satisfaction with: health, finances, family, friends, housing, recreation, self-esteem, religion, and transportation. Cox proportional hazards models examined the influence of LS on time to death. 417 participants died during the five-year study period. Overall LS and all aspects of LS except finances, religion, and self-esteem predicted death in unadjusted analyses. In fully adjusted analyses, LS with health, housing, and recreation predicted death. Other aspects of LS did not predict death after accounting for functional status and multimorbidity. LS predicted death, but certain aspects of LS are more strongly associated with death. The effect of LS is complex and may be mediated or confounded by health and functional status. It is important to consider different domains of LS when considering the impact of this important emotional indicator on mortality among older adults.

  13. Markers of Endothelial Dysfunction, Coagulation and Tissue Fibrosis Independently Predict Venous Thromboembolism in HIV

    PubMed Central

    MUSSELWHITE, Laura W.; SHEIKH, Virginia; NORTON, Thomas D.; RUPERT, Adam; PORTER, Brian O.; PENZAK, Scott R.; SKINNER, Jeff; MICAN, JoAnn M.; HADIGAN, Colleen; SERETI, Irini

    2015-01-01

    Objective HIV infection is associated with coagulation abnormalities and significantly increased risk of venous thrombosis. It has been shown that higher plasma levels of coagulation and inflammatory biomarkers predicted mortality in HIV. We investigated the relationship between venous thrombosis and HIV-related characteristics, traditional risk factors of hypercoagulability and pre-event levels of biomarkers. Design A retrospective case-control study of 23 HIV-infected individuals who experienced an incident venous thromboembolic (VTE) event while enrolled in National Institutes of Health studies from 1995–2010 and 69 age and sex-matched HIV-infected individuals without known VTE. Methods Biomarkers of inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, coagulation, tissue fibrosis, and cytomegalovirus (CMV) reactivation were assessed by ELISA-based assays and PCR using plasma obtained prior to the event. Results VTE events were related to nadir CD4 count, lifetime history of multiple opportunistic infections, CMV disease, CMV viremia, immunological AIDS, active infection and provocation (i.e. recent hospitalization, surgery or trauma). VTE events were independently associated with increased plasma levels of P-selectin, P=0.002; D-dimer, P=0.01; and hyaluronic acid, P=0.009 in a multivariate analysis. No significant differences in antiretroviral or interleukin 2 exposures, plasma HIV viremia, or other traditional risk factors were observed. Conclusion Severe immunodeficiency, active infection and provocation are associated with venous thromboembolic disease in HIV. Biomarkers of endothelial dysfunction, coagulation and tissue fibrosis may help identify HIV-infected patients at elevated risk of VTE. PMID:21412059

  14. High Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts Cardiovascular Mortality in Chronic Hemodialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Xiong, Ruifang

    2017-01-01

    The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a novel simple biomarker of inflammation. It has emerged as a predictor of poor prognosis in cancer and cardiovascular disease in general population. But little was known of its prognostic value in chronic hemodialysis (HD) patients. Here we investigated the association between NLR and cardiovascular risk markers, including increased pulse pressure (PP), left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and intima-media thickness (IMT), and mortality in HD patients. Two hundred and sixty-eight HD patients were enrolled in this study and were followed for 36 months. The primary end point was all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Multivariable Cox regression was used to calculate the adjusted hazard ratios for NLR on all-cause and cardiovascular survival. We pinpointed that higher NLR in HD patients was a predictor of increased PP, LVMI, and IMT; HD patients with higher NLR had a lower survival at the end of the study; furthermore, high NLR was an independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality when adjusted for other risk factors. In conclusion, higher NLR in HD patients was associated with cardiovascular risk factors and mortality. PMID:28316378

  15. Social class is an important and independent prognostic factor of breast cancer mortality.

    PubMed

    Bouchardy, Christine; Verkooijen, Helena M; Fioretta, Gérald

    2006-09-01

    Reasons of the important impact of socioeconomic status on breast cancer prognosis are far from established. This study aims to evaluate and explain the social disparities in breast cancer survival in the Swiss canton of Geneva, where healthcare costs and life expectancy are among the highest in the world. This population-based study included all 3,920 female residents of Geneva, who were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer before the age of 70 years between 1980 and 2000. Patients were divided into 4 socioeconomic groups, according to the woman's last occupation. We used Cox multivariate regression analysis to identify reasons for the socioeconomic inequalities in breast cancer survival. Compared to patients of high social class, those of low social class had an increased risk (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2.4, 95% CI: 1.6-3.5) of dying as a result of breast cancer. These women were more often foreigners, less frequently had screen-detected cancer and were at more advanced stage at diagnosis. They less frequently underwent breast-conserving surgery, hormonal therapy, and chemotherapy, in particular, in case of axillary lymph node involvement. When adjusting for all these factors, patients of low social class still had a significantly increased risk of dying of breast cancer (HR 1.8, 95% CI: 1.2-2.6). Overmortality linked to low SES is only partly explained by delayed diagnosis, unfavorable tumor characteristics and suboptimal treatments. Other factors, not measured in this study, also could play a role. While waiting for the outcome of other researches, we should consider socioeconomic status as an independent prognostic factor and provide intensified support and surveillance to women of low social class. Copyright 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  16. Comparison of the Utility of Preoperative versus Postoperative B-type Natriuretic Peptide for Predicting Hospital Length of Stay and Mortality after Primary Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

    PubMed Central

    Fox, Amanda A.; Muehlschlegel, Jochen D.; Body, Simon C.; Shernan, Stanton K.; Liu, Kuang-Yu; Perry, Tjorvi E.; Aranki, Sary F.; Cook, E. Francis; Marcantonio, Edward R.; Collard, Charles D.

    2016-01-01

    Background Preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is known to predict adverse outcomes after cardiac surgery. The value of postoperative BNP for predicting adverse outcomes is less well delineated. The authors hypothesized that peak postoperative plasma BNP (measured postoperative days 1–5) predicts hospital length of stay (HLOS) and mortality in patients undergoing primary coronary artery bypass grafting, even after adjusting for preoperative BNP and perioperative clinical risk factors. Methods This study is a prospective longitudinal study of 1,183 patients undergoing primary coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. Mortality was defined as all-cause death within 5 yr after surgery. Cox proportional hazards analyses were conducted to separately evaluate the associations between peak postoperative BNP and HLOS and mortality. Multivariable adjustments were made for patient demographics, preoperative BNP concentration, and clinical risk factors. BNP measurements were log10 transformed before analysis. Results One hundred fifteen deaths (9.7%) occurred in the cohort (mean follow-up = 4.3 yr, range = 2.38–5.0 yr). After multivariable adjustment for preoperative BNP and clinical covariates, peak postoperative BNP predicted HLOS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.002–1.64, P = 0.049) but not mortality (HR = 1.62, CI = 0.71–3.68, P = 0.25), whereas preoperative BNP independently predicted HLOS (HR = 1.09, CI = 1.01–1.18, P = 0.03) and approached being an independent predictor of mortality (HR = 1.36, CI = 0.96–1.94, P = 0.08). When preoperative and peak postoperative BNP were separately adjusted for within the clinical multivariable models, each independently predicted HLOS (preoperative BNP HR = 1.13, CI = 1.05–1.21, P = 0.0007; peak postoperative BNP HR = 1.44, CI = 1.15–1.81, P = 0.001) and mortality (preoperative BNP HR = 1.50, CI = 1.09–2.07, P = 0.01; peak postoperative BNP HR = 2.29, CI = 1.11–4.73, P = 0.02). Conclusions Preoperative

  17. Predicting mortality rates: Comparison of an administrative predictive model (hospital standardized mortality ratio) with a physiological predictive model (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV)--A cross-sectional study.

    PubMed

    Toua, Rene Elaine; de Kock, Jacques Erasmus; Welzel, Tyson

    2016-02-01

    Direct comparison of mortality rates has limited value because most deaths are due to the disease process. Predicting the risk of death accurately remains a challenge. A cross-sectional study compared the expected mortality rate as calculated with an administrative model to a physiological model, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV. The combined cohort and stratified samples (<0.1, 0.1-0.5, or >0.5 predicted mortality) were considered. A total of 47,982 patients were scored from 1 July 2013 to 30 June 2014, and 46,061 records were included in the analysis. A moderate correlation was shown for the combined cohort (Pearson correlation index, 0.618; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.380-0.779; R(2) = 0.38). A very good correlation for the less than 10% stratum (Pearson correlation index, 0.884; R(2) = 0.78; 95% CI, 0.79-0.937) and a moderate correlation for 0.1 to 0.5 predicted mortality rates (Pearson correlation index, 0.782; R(2) = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.623-0.879). There was no significant positive correlation for the greater than 50% predicted mortality stratum (Pearson correlation index, 0.087; R(2) = 0.007; 95% CI, -0.23 to 0.387). At less than 0.1, the models are interchangeable, but in spite of a moderate correlation, greater than 0.1 hospital standardized mortality ratio cannot be used to predict mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Accuracy and Calibration of Computational Approaches for Inpatient Mortality Predictive Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Nakas, Christos T.; Schütz, Narayan; Werners, Marcus; Leichtle, Alexander B.

    2016-01-01

    Electronic Health Record (EHR) data can be a key resource for decision-making support in clinical practice in the “big data” era. The complete database from early 2012 to late 2015 involving hospital admissions to Inselspital Bern, the largest Swiss University Hospital, was used in this study, involving over 100,000 admissions. Age, sex, and initial laboratory test results were the features/variables of interest for each admission, the outcome being inpatient mortality. Computational decision support systems were utilized for the calculation of the risk of inpatient mortality. We assessed the recently proposed Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score (ALaRMS) model, and further built generalized linear models, generalized estimating equations, artificial neural networks, and decision tree systems for the predictive modeling of the risk of inpatient mortality. The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for ALaRMS marginally corresponded to the anticipated accuracy (AUC = 0.858). Penalized logistic regression methodology provided a better result (AUC = 0.872). Decision tree and neural network-based methodology provided even higher predictive performance (up to AUC = 0.912 and 0.906, respectively). Additionally, decision tree-based methods can efficiently handle Electronic Health Record (EHR) data that have a significant amount of missing records (in up to >50% of the studied features) eliminating the need for imputation in order to have complete data. In conclusion, we show that statistical learning methodology can provide superior predictive performance in comparison to existing methods and can also be production ready. Statistical modeling procedures provided unbiased, well-calibrated models that can be efficient decision support tools for predicting inpatient mortality and assigning preventive measures. PMID:27414408

  19. A Severe Sepsis Mortality Prediction Model and Score for Use With Administrative Data.

    PubMed

    Ford, Dee W; Goodwin, Andrew J; Simpson, Annie N; Johnson, Emily; Nadig, Nandita; Simpson, Kit N

    2016-02-01

    Administrative data are used for research, quality improvement, and health policy in severe sepsis. However, there is not a sepsis-specific tool applicable to administrative data with which to adjust for illness severity. Our objective was to develop, internally validate, and externally validate a severe sepsis mortality prediction model and associated mortality prediction score. Retrospective cohort study using 2012 administrative data from five U.S. states. Three cohorts of patients with severe sepsis were created: 1) International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes for severe sepsis/septic shock, 2) Martin approach, and 3) Angus approach. The model was developed and internally validated in International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification, cohort and externally validated in other cohorts. Integer point values for each predictor variable were generated to create a sepsis severity score. Acute care, nonfederal hospitals in New York, Maryland, Florida, Michigan, and Washington. Patients in one of three severe sepsis cohorts: 1) explicitly coded (n = 108,448), 2) Martin cohort (n = 139,094), and 3) Angus cohort (n = 523,637) INTERVENTIONS: None. Maximum likelihood estimation logistic regression to develop a predictive model for in-hospital mortality. Model calibration and discrimination assessed via Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit and C-statistics, respectively. Primary cohort subset into risk deciles and observed versus predicted mortality plotted. Goodness-of-fit demonstrated p value of more than 0.05 for each cohort demonstrating sound calibration. C-statistic ranged from low of 0.709 (sepsis severity score) to high of 0.838 (Angus cohort), suggesting good to excellent model discrimination. Comparison of observed versus expected mortality was robust although accuracy decreased in highest risk decile. Our sepsis severity model and score is a tool that provides reliable risk adjustment for

  20. Poor physical health predicts time to additional breast cancer events and mortality in breast cancer survivors.

    PubMed

    Saquib, Nazmus; Pierce, John P; Saquib, Juliann; Flatt, Shirley W; Natarajan, Loki; Bardwell, Wayne A; Patterson, Ruth E; Stefanick, Marcia L; Thomson, Cynthia A; Rock, Cheryl L; Jones, Lovell A; Gold, Ellen B; Karanja, Njeri; Parker, Barbara A

    2011-03-01

    Health-related quality of life has been hypothesized to predict time to additional breast cancer events and all-cause mortality in breast cancer survivors. Women with early-stage breast cancer (n=2967) completed the SF-36 (mental and physical health-related quality of life) and standardized psychosocial questionnaires to assess social support, optimism, hostility, and depression prior to randomization into a dietary trial. Cox regression was performed to assess whether these measures of quality of life and psychosocial functioning predicted time to additional breast cancer events and all-cause mortality; hazard ratios were the measure of association. There were 492 additional breast cancer events and 301 deaths occurred over a median 7.3 years (range: 0.01-10.8 years) of follow-up. In multivariate models, poorer physical health was associated with both decreased time to additional breast cancer events and all-cause mortality (p trend=0.005 and 0.004, respectively), while greater hostility predicted additional breast cancer events only (p trend=0.03). None of the other psychosocial variables predicted either outcome. The hazard ratios comparing persons with poor (bottom two quintiles) to better (top three quintiles) physical health were 1.42 (95% CI: 1.16, 1.75) for decreased time to additional breast cancer events and 1.37 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.74) for all-cause mortality. Potentially modifiable factors associated with poor physical health included higher body mass index, lower physical activity, lower alcohol consumption, and more insomnia (p<0.05 for all). Interventions to improve physical health should be tested as a means to increase time to additional breast cancer events and mortality among breast cancer survivors. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Mortality, morbidity and refractoriness prediction in status epilepticus: Comparison of STESS and EMSE scores.

    PubMed

    Giovannini, Giada; Monti, Giulia; Tondelli, Manuela; Marudi, Andrea; Valzania, Franco; Leitinger, Markus; Trinka, Eugen; Meletti, Stefano

    2017-03-01

    Status epilepticus (SE) is a neurological emergency, characterized by high short-term morbidity and mortality. We evaluated and compared two scores that have been developed to evaluate status epilepticus prognosis: STESS (Status Epilepticus Severity Score) and EMSE (Epidemiology based Mortality score in Status Epilepticus). A prospective observational study was performed on consecutive patients with SE admitted between September 2013 and August 2015. Demographics, clinical variables, STESS-3 and -4, and EMSE-64 scores were calculated for each patient at baseline. SE drug response, 30-day mortality and morbidity were the outcomes measure. 162 episodes of SE were observed: 69% had a STESS ≥3; 34% had a STESS ≥4; 51% patients had an EMSE ≥64. The 30-days mortality was 31.5%: EMSE-64 showed greater negative predictive value (NPV) (97.5%), positive predictive value (PPV) (59.8%) and accuracy in the prediction of death than STESS-3 and STESS-4 (p<0.001). At 30 days, the clinical condition had deteriorated in 59% of the cases: EMSE-64 showed greater NPV (71.3%), PPV (87.8%) and accuracy than STESS-3 and STESS-4 (p<0.001) in the prediction of this outcome. In 23% of all cases, status epilepticus proved refractory to non-anaesthetic treatment. All three scales showed a high NPV (EMSE-64: 87.3%; STESS-4: 89.4%; STESS-3: 87.5%) but a low PPV (EMSE-64: 40.9%; STESS-4: 52.9%; STESS-3: 32%) for the prediction of refractoriness to first and second line drugs. This means that accuracy for the prediction of refractoriness was equally poor for all scales. EMSE-64 appears superior to STESS-3 and STESS-4 in the prediction of 30-days mortality and morbidity. All scales showed poor accuracy in the prediction of response to first and second line antiepileptic drugs. At present, there are no reliable scores capable of predicting treatment responsiveness. Copyright © 2017 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2017, with focus on lung cancer.

    PubMed

    Malvezzi, M; Carioli, G; Bertuccio, P; Boffetta, P; Levi, F; La Vecchia, C; Negri, E

    2017-05-01

    We predicted cancer mortality figures in the European Union (EU) for the year 2017 using most recent available data, with a focus on lung cancer. We retrieved cancer death certification data and population figures from the World Health Organisation and Eurostat databases. Age-standardized (world standard population) rates were computed for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK and the EU overall in 1970-2012. We obtained estimates for 2017 by implementing a joinpoint regression model. The predicted number of cancer deaths for 2017 in the EU is 1 373 500, compared with 1 333 400 in 2012 (+3%). Cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline in both sexes, reaching 131.8/100 000 men (-8.2% when compared with 2012) and 84.5/100 000 women (-3.6%). Mortality rates for all selected cancer sites are predicted to decline, except pancreatic cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in women. In men, pancreatic cancer rate is stable, in women it increases by 3.5%. Lung cancer mortality rate in women is predicted to rise to 14.6/100 000 in 2017 (+5.1% since 2012, corresponding to 92 300 predicted deaths), compared with 14.0/100 000 for breast cancer, corresponding to 92 600 predicted deaths. Only younger (25-44) women have favourable lung cancer trends, and rates at this age group are predicted to be similar in women (1.4/100 000) and men (1.2/100 000). In men lung cancer rates are predicted to decline by 10.7% since 2012, and falls are observed in all age groups. European cancer mortality projections for 2017 confirm the overall downward trend in rates, with a stronger pattern in men. This is mainly due to different smoking prevalence trends in different generations of men and women. Lung cancer rates in young European women are comparable to those in men, confirming that smoking has the same impact on lung cancer in the two sexes.

  3. Alcoholic hepatitis histological score has high accuracy to predict 90-day mortality and response to steroids.

    PubMed

    Andrade, Patrícia; Silva, Marco; Rodrigues, Susana; Lopes, Joanne; Lopes, Susana; Macedo, Guilherme

    2016-06-01

    A histological classification system (AHHS) has been recently proposed to predict 90-day mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis (AH). We analyzed the spectrum of histological features in patients with AH and assessed the ability of AHHS for predicting both response to steroids and 90-day mortality. Retrospective study of patients admitted to our tertiary centre between 2010 and 2014 with biopsy-proven AH. Histological features were analyzed and AHHS value was calculated. Kaplan-Meyer curves were calculated to assess the ability of AHHS to predict response to steroids and 90-day mortality. We included 34 patients (70.6% men, mean age 48.5±8.9 years). Transjugular liver biopsy was performed 3.5±2.9 days after admission. Presence of bilirubinostasis (p=0.049), degree of bilirubinostasis (p<0.001), absence of megamitochondria (p<0.001) and degree of polymorphonuclear infiltration (p=0.018) were significantly associated with higher mortality at 90 days. Patients who responded to steroids had a significantly lower AHHS value than non-responders (5.4±0.9 vs 8.1±1.1, p=0.003). AAHS value was significantly higher in patients who died compared to patients who survived at 90 days (9.0±0.7 vs 5.0±0.9, p<0.001). AHHS predicted response to steroids [AUROC 0.90 (CI95% 0.742-1.000), p=0.004] and 90-day mortality [AUROC 1.0 (CI95% 1.0-1.0), p<0.001] with high accuracy. In this cohort of patients, presence and degree of bilirubinostasis, absence of megamitochondria and degree of PMN infiltration were significantly associated with 90-day mortality. AHHS had a high accuracy for predicting response to steroids and 90-day mortality in this cohort of patients. Copyright © 2016 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Role of Microalbuminuria in Predicting Cardiovascular Mortality in Individuals With Subclinical Hypothyroidism.

    PubMed

    Tuliani, Tushar A; Shenoy, Maithili; Belgrave, Kevin; Deshmukh, Abhishek; Pant, Sadip; Hilliard, Anthony; Afonso, Luis

    2017-09-01

    Studies suggest that subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) is related to cardiovascular mortality (CVM). We explored the role of microalbuminuria (MIA) as a predictor of long-term CVM in population with and without SCH with normal kidney function. We examined the National Health and Nutrition Education Survey - III database (n = 6,812). Individuals younger than 40 years, thyroid-stimulating hormone levels ≥20 and ≤0.35mIU/L, estimated glomerular filtration rate <60mL/minute/1.73m(2) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio of >250mg/g in men and >355mg/g in women were excluded. SCH was defined as thyroid-stimulating hormone levels between 5 and 19.99mIU/L and serum T4 levels between 5 and 12µg/dL. MIA was defined as urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 17-250mg/g in men and 25-355mg/g in women. Patients were categorized into the following 4 groups: (1) no SCH or MIA, (2) MIA, but no SCH, (3) SCH, but no MIA and (4) both SCH and MIA. Prevalence of MIA in the subclinical hypothyroid cohort was 21% compared to 16.4% in those without SCH (P = 0.03). SCH was a significant independent predictor of MIA (n = 6,812), after adjusting for traditional risk factors (unadjusted odds ratio = 1.75; 95% CI: 1.24-2.48; P = 0.002 and adjusted odds ratio = 1.83; 95% CI: 1.2-2.79; P = 0.006). MIA was a significant independent predictor of long-term all-cause (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.24-2.33) and CVM (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.07-2.76) in subclinical hypothyroid individuals. In a cohort of subclinical hypothyroid individuals, the presence of MIA predicts increased risk of CVM as compared to nonmicroalbuminurics with SCH. Further randomized trials are needed to assess the benefits of treating microalbuminuric subclinical hypothyroid individuals and impact on CVM. Copyright © 2017 Southern Society for Clinical Investigation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Evaluating the predictive performance of empirical estimators of natural mortality rate using information on over 200 fish species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Then, Amy Y.; Hoenig, John M; Hall, Norman G.; Hewitt, David A.

    2015-01-01

    Many methods have been developed in the last 70 years to predict the natural mortality rate, M, of a stock based on empirical evidence from comparative life history studies. These indirect or empirical methods are used in most stock assessments to (i) obtain estimates of M in the absence of direct information, (ii) check on the reasonableness of a direct estimate of M, (iii) examine the range of plausible M estimates for the stock under consideration, and (iv) define prior distributions for Bayesian analyses. The two most cited empirical methods have appeared in the literature over 2500 times to date. Despite the importance of these methods, there is no consensus in the literature on how well these methods work in terms of prediction error or how their performance may be ranked. We evaluate estimators based on various combinations of maximum age (tmax), growth parameters, and water temperature by seeing how well they reproduce >200 independent, direct estimates of M. We use tenfold cross-validation to estimate the prediction error of the estimators and to rank their performance. With updated and carefully reviewed data, we conclude that a tmax-based estimator performs the best among all estimators evaluated. The tmax-based estimators in turn perform better than the Alverson–Carney method based on tmax and the von Bertalanffy K coefficient, Pauly's method based on growth parameters and water temperature and methods based just on K. It is possible to combine two independent methods by computing a weighted mean but the improvement over the tmax-based methods is slight. Based on cross-validation prediction error, model residual patterns, model parsimony, and biological considerations, we recommend the use of a tmax-based estimator (M=4.899t−0.916max, prediction error = 0.32) when possible and a growth-based method (M=4.118K0.73L−0.33∞ , prediction error = 0.6) otherwise.

  6. Cholesterol-independent effects of atorvastatin prevent cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a mouse model of atherosclerotic plaque rupture.

    PubMed

    Roth, Lynn; Rombouts, Miche; Schrijvers, Dorien M; Martinet, Wim; De Meyer, Guido R Y

    2016-05-01

    Because cholesterol-independent effects of statins are difficult to determine in patients, we studied these pleiotropic effects in apolipoprotein E-deficient (ApoE(-/-)) mice with a mutation in the fibrillin-1 gene (Fbn1(C1039G+/-)). These mice develop exacerbated atherosclerosis and spontaneous plaque ruptures, accompanied by myocardial infarctions (MI) and sudden death. ApoE(-/-)Fbn1(C1039G+/-) mice were fed a Western diet (WD). At week 10 of WD, mice were divided in a control (WD), atorvastatin (10mg/kg/day + WD) and cholesterol withdrawal group (cholW, normal chow). The latter was included to compare the effects of atorvastatin with dietary lipid lowering. Fifteen weeks later, the mice were sacrificed. CholW, but not atorvastatin, reduced plasma cholesterol. Survival increased from 50% to 90% both in cholW and atorvastatin treated mice. CholW as well as atorvastatin treatment increased plaque collagen and fibrous cap thickness, but they did not affect the amount of plaque macrophages and T cells. MMP-2 and MMP-9 activity was significantly lower and the expression of MMP-12, TNF-α and IL-1β was strongly reduced in both treatment groups. Blood monocytes and neutrophils returned to baseline levels (ApoE(-/-) mice before the onset of atherosclerosis). Importantly, atorvastatin but not cholW significantly reduced coronary stenosis (from 50 to 28%) and the occurrence of MI (from 43 to 10%). In conclusion, independent of cholesterol lowering, atorvastatin significantly reduced mortality, plaque vulnerability and inflammation to the same extent as cholW. In addition, atorvastatin but not cholW reduced coronary stenosis and the occurrence of MI. These data unequivocally illustrate the significance of the pleiotropic effects of atorvastatin in the prevention of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

  7. Should We Use the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) to Predict Mortality After Colorectal Surgery?

    PubMed

    Pantel, Haddon Jacob; Stensland, Kristian D; Nelson, Jason; Francone, Todd D; Roberts, Patricia L; Marcello, Peter W; Read, Thomas; Ricciardi, Rocco

    2016-08-01

    We sought to determine the accuracy of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and the Mayo Clinic Postoperative Mortality Risk in Patients with Cirrhosis Calculator in patients with ascites who underwent colorectal surgery. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried for patients with ascites who underwent a major colorectal operation. Predicted 90-day mortality rate based on the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and 30-day mortality based on the Mayo Clinic Postoperative Mortality Risk in Patients with Cirrhosis Calculator were compared with observed 30-day mortality. The cohort contained 3137 patients with ascites who underwent a colorectal operation. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease predicted that 252 (8 %) of patients with ascites undergoing colorectal operations would die within 90 days postoperatively, yet we observed 821 deaths (26 % mortality) within 30 days after surgery (p < 0.001). The Mayo Clinic Postoperative Mortality Risk in Patients with Cirrhosis Calculator predicted that 491 (16.6 % mortality) of patients with ascites undergoing colorectal operations would die within 30 days postoperatively, yet we observed 707 (23.9 % mortality) at 30 days (p < 0.01). We concluded that the current risk prediction models significantly under predict mortality in patients with ascites who underwent colorectal surgery.

  8. Multiple, but not traditional risk factors predict mortality in older people: the Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project.

    PubMed

    Hirani, Vasant; Naganathan, Vasi; Blyth, Fiona; Le Couteur, David G; Gnjidic, Danijela; Stanaway, Fiona F; Seibel, Markus J; Waite, Louise M; Handelsman, David J; Cumming, Robert G

    2014-01-01

    This study aims to identify the common risk factors for mortality in community-dwelling older men. A prospective population-based study was conducted with a median of 6.7 years of follow-up. Participants included 1705 men aged ≥70 years at baseline (2005-2007) living in the community in Sydney, Australia. Demographic information, lifestyle factors, health status, self-reported history of diseases, physical performance measures, blood pressure, height and weight, disability (activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADLs, instrumental ADLs (IADLs)), cognitive status, depressive symptoms and blood analyte measures were considered. Cox regression analyses were conducted to model predictors delete time until of mortality. During follow-up, 461 men (27 %) died. Using Cox proportional hazards model, significant predictors of delete time to time to mortality included in the final model (p < 0.05) were older age, body mass index < 20 kg m(2), high white cell count, anaemia, low albumin, current smoking, history of cancer, history of myocardial infarction, history of congestive heart failure, depressive symptoms and ADL and IADL disability and impaired chair stands. We found that overweight and obesity and/or being a lifelong non-drinker of alcohol were protective against mortality. Compared to men with less than or equal to one risk factor, the hazard ratio in men with three risk factors was 2.5; with four risk factors, it was 4.0; with five risk factors, it was 4.9; and for six or more risk factors, it was 11.4, respectively. We have identified common risk factors that predict mortality that may be useful in making clinical decisions among older people living in the community. Our findings suggest that, in primary care, screening and management of multiple risk factors are important to consider for extending survival, rather than simply considering individual risk factors in isolation. Some of the "traditional" risk factors for mortality in a

  9. A review of logistic regression models used to predict post-fire tree mortality of western North American conifers

    Treesearch

    Travis Woolley; David C. Shaw; Lisa M. Ganio; Stephen. Fitzgerald

    2012-01-01

    Logistic regression models used to predict tree mortality are critical to post-fire management, planning prescribed bums and understanding disturbance ecology. We review literature concerning post-fire mortality prediction using logistic regression models for coniferous tree species in the western USA. We include synthesis and review of: methods to develop, evaluate...

  10. Psychological language on Twitter predicts county-level heart disease mortality.

    PubMed

    Eichstaedt, Johannes C; Schwartz, Hansen Andrew; Kern, Margaret L; Park, Gregory; Labarthe, Darwin R; Merchant, Raina M; Jha, Sneha; Agrawal, Megha; Dziurzynski, Lukasz A; Sap, Maarten; Weeg, Christopher; Larson, Emily E; Ungar, Lyle H; Seligman, Martin E P

    2015-02-01

    Hostility and chronic stress are known risk factors for heart disease, but they are costly to assess on a large scale. We used language expressed on Twitter to characterize community-level psychological correlates of age-adjusted mortality from atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD). Language patterns reflecting negative social relationships, disengagement, and negative emotions-especially anger-emerged as risk factors; positive emotions and psychological engagement emerged as protective factors. Most correlations remained significant after controlling for income and education. A cross-sectional regression model based only on Twitter language predicted AHD mortality significantly better than did a model that combined 10 common demographic, socioeconomic, and health risk factors, including smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. Capturing community psychological characteristics through social media is feasible, and these characteristics are strong markers of cardiovascular mortality at the community level. © The Author(s) 2014.

  11. Psychological Language on Twitter Predicts County-Level Heart Disease Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Eichstaedt, Johannes C.; Schwartz, Hansen Andrew; Kern, Margaret L.; Park, Gregory; Labarthe, Darwin R.; Merchant, Raina M.; Jha, Sneha; Agrawal, Megha; Dziurzynski, Lukasz A.; Sap, Maarten; Weeg, Christopher; Larson, Emily E.; Ungar, Lyle H.; Seligman, Martin E. P.

    2015-01-01

    Hostility and chronic stress are known risk factors for heart disease, but they are costly to assess on a large scale. We used language expressed on Twitter to characterize community-level psychological correlates of age-adjusted mortality from atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD). Language patterns reflecting negative social relationships, disengagement, and negative emotions—especially anger—emerged as risk factors; positive emotions and psychological engagement emerged as protective factors. Most correlations remained significant after controlling for income and education. A cross-sectional regression model based only on Twitter language predicted AHD mortality significantly better than did a model that combined 10 common demographic, socioeconomic, and health risk factors, including smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. Capturing community psychological characteristics through social media is feasible, and these characteristics are strong markers of cardiovascular mortality at the community level. PMID:25605707

  12. [Predictive value of early lactate area for mortality in elderly patients with septic shock].

    PubMed

    Zhang, J X; Yin, M; Chen, X M; Li, C; Wu, D W; Ding, S F; Du, B F; Guo, H P; Qin, W D; Yang, H N; Wang, H

    2016-09-06

    Objective: To investigate the predictive value of early lactate area for mortality in elderly patients with septic shock. Methods: From January 2012 to December 2013, a prospective study was conducted in the Department of Critical Care Medicine, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University. A total of 115 septic shock patients with age ≥65 years were included in the study. Serum lactate was measured every 6 hours, the lactate indicators, including early lactate area, APACHE Ⅱ score etc were recorded. Results: The overall 28-day mortality rate was 67.0%. The top three primary infection sources were lung, abdominal cavity and bloodstream. When compared to survivors, non-survivors had significantly elevated early lactate area and APACHE Ⅱ score and lowered lactate clearance[(27.4±7.6) vs ( 20.3±6.5)], they were significantly more likely to have undergone mechanical ventilation, renal replacement therapy and inotropic or vasopressor support for ≥3 d, and more frequently displayed signs of cardiovascular, respiratory, and renal and hepatic dysfunction (all P<0.05) .Receiver Operating Characteristic curves indicated the lactate area score displayed a strong predictive power for 28 day mortality as indicated by an AUC of 0.758 (P<0.01) and had significantly greater predictive power when compared to the initial lactate or lactate clearance (all P<0.05). Conclusions: In geriatric patients with septic shock, the early lactate area is a useful predictor for early death and showed better predictive value than other lactate indicators.

  13. The utility of 6-minute walk distance in predicting waitlist mortality for lung transplant candidates

    PubMed Central

    Castleberry, Anthony; Mulvihill, Michael S.; Yerokun, Babatunde A.; Gulack, Brian C.; Englum, Brian; Snyder, Laurie; Worni, Mathias; Osho, Asishana; Palmer, Scott; Davis, R. Duane; Hartwig, Matthew G.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND The lung allocation score (LAS) has led to improved organ allocation for transplant candidates. At present, the 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) is treated as a binary categorical variable of whether or not a candidate can walk more than 150 feet in 6 minutes. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that 6MWD is presently under-utilized with respect to discriminatory power, and that, as a continuous variable, could better prognosticate risk of waitlist mortality. METHODS A retrospective cohort analysis was performed using the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network/United Network for Organ Sharing (OPTN/UNOS) transplant database. Candidates listed for isolated lung transplant between May 2005 and December 2011 were included. The population was stratified by 6MWD quartiles and unadjusted survival rates were estimated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess the effect of 6MWD on risk of death. The Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) Waitlist Risk Model was used to adjust for confounders. The optimal 6MWD for discriminative accuracy in predicting waitlist mortality was assessed by receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS Analysis was performed on 12,298 recipients. Recipients were segregated into quartiles by distance walked. Waitlist mortality decreased as 6MWD increased. In the multivariable model, significant variables included 6MWD, male gender, non-white ethnicity and restrictive lung diseases. ROC curves discriminated 6-month mortality was best at 655 feet. CONCLUSIONS The 6MWD is a significant predictor of waitlist mortality. A cut-off of 150 feet suboptimally identifies candidates with increased risk of mortality. A cut-off between 550 and 655 feet is more optimal if 6MWD is to be treated as a dichotomous variable. Utilization of the LAS as a continuous variable could further enhance predictive capabilities. PMID:28131666

  14. The utility of 6-minute walk distance in predicting waitlist mortality for lung transplant candidates.

    PubMed

    Castleberry, Anthony; Mulvihill, Michael S; Yerokun, Babatunde A; Gulack, Brian C; Englum, Brian; Snyder, Laurie; Worni, Mathias; Osho, Asishana; Palmer, Scott; Davis, R Duane; Hartwig, Matthew G

    2017-07-01

    The lung allocation score (LAS) has led to improved organ allocation for transplant candidates. At present, the 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) is treated as a binary categorical variable of whether or not a candidate can walk more than 150 feet in 6 minutes. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that 6MWD is presently under-utilized with respect to discriminatory power, and that, as a continuous variable, could better prognosticate risk of waitlist mortality. A retrospective cohort analysis was performed using the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network/United Network for Organ Sharing (OPTN/UNOS) transplant database. Candidates listed for isolated lung transplant between May 2005 and December 2011 were included. The population was stratified by 6MWD quartiles and unadjusted survival rates were estimated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess the effect of 6MWD on risk of death. The Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) Waitlist Risk Model was used to adjust for confounders. The optimal 6MWD for discriminative accuracy in predicting waitlist mortality was assessed by receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Analysis was performed on 12,298 recipients. Recipients were segregated into quartiles by distance walked. Waitlist mortality decreased as 6MWD increased. In the multivariable model, significant variables included 6MWD, male gender, non-white ethnicity and restrictive lung diseases. ROC curves discriminated 6-month mortality was best at 655 feet. The 6MWD is a significant predictor of waitlist mortality. A cut-off of 150 feet sub-optimally identifies candidates with increased risk of mortality. A cut-off between 550 and 655 feet is more optimal if 6MWD is to be treated as a dichotomous variable. Utilization of the LAS as a continuous variable could further enhance predictive capabilities. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  15. New consensus definition for acute kidney injury accurately predicts 30-day mortality in cirrhosis with infection

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Florence; O’Leary, Jacqueline G; Reddy, K Rajender; Patton, Heather; Kamath, Patrick S; Fallon, Michael B; Garcia-Tsao, Guadalupe; Subramanian, Ram M.; Malik, Raza; Maliakkal, Benedict; Thacker, Leroy R; Bajaj, Jasmohan S

    2015-01-01

    Background & Aims A consensus conference proposed that cirrhosis-associated acute kidney injury (AKI) be defined as an increase in serum creatinine by >50% from the stable baseline value in <6 months or by ≥0.3mg/dL in <48 hrs. We prospectively evaluated the ability of these criteria to predict mortality within 30 days among hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and infection. Methods 337 patients with cirrhosis admitted with or developed an infection in hospital (56% men; 56±10 y old; model for end-stage liver disease score, 20±8) were followed. We compared data on 30-day mortality, hospital length-of-stay, and organ failure between patients with and without AKI. Results 166 (49%) developed AKI during hospitalization, based on the consensus criteria. Patients who developed AKI had higher admission Child-Pugh (11.0±2.1 vs 9.6±2.1; P<.0001), and MELD scores (23±8 vs17±7; P<.0001), and lower mean arterial pressure (81±16mmHg vs 85±15mmHg; P<.01) than those who did not. Also higher amongst patients with AKI were mortality in ≤30 days (34% vs 7%), intensive care unit transfer (46% vs 20%), ventilation requirement (27% vs 6%), and shock (31% vs 8%); AKI patients also had longer hospital stays (17.8±19.8 days vs 13.3±31.8 days) (all P<.001). 56% of AKI episodes were transient, 28% persistent, and 16% resulted in dialysis. Mortality was 80% among those without renal recovery, higher compared to partial (40%) or complete recovery (15%), or AKI-free patients (7%; P<.0001). Conclusions 30-day mortality is 10-fold higher among infected hospitalized cirrhotic patients with irreversible AKI than those without AKI. The consensus definition of AKI accurately predicts 30-day mortality, length of hospital stay, and organ failure. PMID:23999172

  16. Comparison of mental status scales for predicting mortality on the general wards

    PubMed Central

    Zadravecz, Frank J.; Tien, Linda; Robertson-Dick, Brian J.; Yuen, Trevor C.; Twu, Nicole M.; Churpek, Matthew M.; Edelson, Dana P.

    2016-01-01

    Background Altered mental status is a significant predictor of mortality in inpatients. Several scales exist to characterize mental status, including the AVPU (Alert, responds to Voice, responds to Pain, Unresponsive) scale, which is used in many early warning scores in the general ward setting. The use of the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and Richmond Agitation Sedation Scale (RASS) is not well established in this population. Objective To compare the accuracies of AVPU, GCS, and RASS for predicting inpatient mortality Design Retrospective cohort study Setting Single urban academic medical center Participants Adult inpatients on the general wards Measurements Nurses recorded GCS and RASS on consecutive adult hospitalizations. AVPU was extracted from the eye subscale of the GCS. We compared the accuracies of each scale for predicting in-hospital mortality within 24 hours of a mental status observation using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). Results 295,974 paired observations of GCS and RASS were obtained from 26,873 admissions; 417 (1.6%) resulted in in-hospital death. GCS and RASS more accurately predicted mortality than AVPU (AUC 0.80 and 0.82, respectively vs. 0.73; p<0.001 for both comparisons). Simultaneous use of GCS and RASS produced an AUC of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.82-0.87; p<0.001 when compared to all three scales). Conclusions In ward patients, both GCS and RASS were significantly more accurate predictors of mortality than AVPU. In addition, combining GCS and RASS was more accurate than any scale alone. Routine tracking of GCS and/or RASS on general wards may improve accuracy of detecting clinical deterioration. PMID:26374471

  17. Lower Body Mass Index and Atrial Fibrillation as Independent Predictors for Mortality in Patients with Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator

    PubMed Central

    Schernthaner, Christiana; Pichler, Maximilian; Strohmer, Bernhard

    2007-01-01

    Aim To evaluate risk factors related to total mortality in an unselected population of patients implanted with a cardioverter defibrillator. Methods Survival analysis was performed retrospectively investigating the records of 77 consecutive patients implanted with defibrillators (median 67 years, range 38-83 years; 63 men). All patients were followed regularly in 3-month intervals. The cause of mortality was assessed clinically, including post-mortem examination of device to assess possible arrhythmogenic death. Predictors were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier analysis with log-rank tests and by Cox regression analysis (proportional hazards). Results Defibrillator recipients had a mean (±SD) ejection fraction of 34 ± 13%, left ventricular end-diastolic dimension (LVEDD) of 6.24 ± 0.8 cm, QRS duration of 129 ± 34 ms, and body mass index (BMI) of 26.4 ± 4.3 kg/m2. Atrial fibrillation was present in 32 patients, paroxysmal fibrillation in 23, and permanent fibrillation in 9 patients. The estimate of mean survival time for all patients was 51.5 (95% confidence interval 46.6-56.5) months. During the study period 11/77 (14%) patients died. Mean follow-up time was 24.5 months (range 0.2-60.7) for survivors and 7.6 months (range 1.5-42) for non-survivors. Independent predictors of mortality were the NYHA class (P = 0.004), BMI≤26 kg/m2 (P = 0.024), presence of paroxysmal or permanent atrial fibrillation (P = 0.014), and absence of arterial hypertension (P = 0.010). LVEDD showed a weak significant effect on survival (P = 0.049). Conclusion Patients with implantable cardioverter defibrillator and a normal to lower BMI or atrial fibrillation had a significantly higher overall mortality. These factors may be indicative of end stage heart failure or diseases associated with high sympathetic activation. PMID:17309140

  18. Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Is an Independent Predictor for In-Hospital Mortality in Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

    PubMed

    Giede-Jeppe, Antje; Bobinger, Tobias; Gerner, Stefan T; Sembill, Jochen A; Sprügel, Maximilian I; Beuscher, Vanessa D; Lücking, Hannes; Hoelter, Philip; Kuramatsu, Joji B; Huttner, Hagen B

    2017-01-01

    < 0.001), larger hematoma volumes (21.0 [8.6-48.8] vs. 12.2 [4.1-34.9] mL; p < 0.001), and higher proportions of unfavorable functional outcome at 3 months (mRS 4-6: 173/214 vs. 418/641; p < 0.001). Further, NLR was linked to more frequently occurring infectious complications (pneumonia 107/214 vs. 240/641; p = 0.001, sepsis: 78/214 vs. 116/641; p < 0.001), and increased c-reactive-protein levels on admission (p < 0.001; R2 = 0.064). Adjusting for the above-mentioned baseline confounders, multivariable logistic analyses revealed independent associations of NLROA with in-hospital mortality (OR 0.967, 95% CI 0.939-0.997; p = 0.029). NLR represents an independent parameter associated with increased mortality in ICH patients. Stroke physicians should focus intensely on patients with increased NLR, as these patients appear to represent a population at risk for infectious complications and increased short-mortality. Whether these patients with elevated NLR may benefit from a close monitoring and specially designed therapies should be investigated in future studies. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  19. Predictive factors of perinatal mortality in transfused fetuses due to maternal alloimmunization: what really matters?

    PubMed

    Osanan, Gabriel Costa; Silveira Reis, Zilma Nogueira; Apocalypse, Isabela Gomes; Lopes, Ana Paula Brum; Pereira, Alamanda Kfoury; da Silva Ribeiro, Orquidea Maria; Vieira Cabral, Antônio Carlos

    2012-08-01

    Alloimmunization is the main cause of fetal anemia. There are not many consistent analyses associating antenatal parameters to perinatal mortality in transfused fetuses due to maternal alloimmunization. The study aimed to determine the prognostic variables related to perinatal death. A cohort study analyzed 128 fetuses treated with intrauterine transfusion (IUT), until the early neonatal period. Perinatal mortality was associated with prognostic conditions related to prematurity, severity of fetal anemia and IUT procedure by univariated logistic regression. Multiple logistic regression was used to compute the odds ratio (OR) for adjusting the hemoglobin deficit at the last IUT, gestational age at birth, complications of IUT, antenatal corticosteroid and hydrops. Perinatal mortality rate found in this study was 18.1%. The hemoglobin deficit at the last IUT (OR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.04-1.53), gestational age at birth (OR: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.38-0.74) and the presence of transfusional complications (OR: 5.43, 95% CI: 142-20.76) were significant in predicting fetal death. Perinatal mortality prediction in transfused fetuses is not associated only to severity of anemia, but also to the risks of IUT and prematurity.

  20. Modified Glasgow Coma Scale to predict mortality in febrile unconscious children.

    PubMed

    Chaturvedi, P; Kishore, M

    2001-04-01

    A prospective hospital based study was conducted in the Department of Pediatrics of the Kasturba Hospital, Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Medical Sciences, Sevagram, Wardha to predict the mortality in children admitted with fever and unconsciousness using the Modified Glasgow Coma Scale (MGCS) score. Forty eight children were admitted with fever and unconsciousness; cases of febrile convulsions, epilepsy and cerebral palsy were excluded. MGCS scores were assessed on admission and repeated at 12 hours, 24 hours, 48 hours and 72 hours after admission in each case. Diagnosis in each case was confirmed by history, examinations and investigations. All the cases were regularly followed up till death/discharge. The overall mortality was 29.1% (14/48) out of which 85% (12/14) died within the first 24 hours. Mortality was highest in the toddler age group and in patients with pyogenic meningitis. There was a significant association between death and MGCS scores on admission with a post test probability for discharge being only 10% with a score of less than 5 and 99% with a score of more than 10 respectively. MGCS scores on admission can be used to predict mortality in patients hospitalized with fever and unconsciousness. The scale is simple, easy, can be applied at bed side and does not need any investigations. Its application in developing countries with limited investigative and intensive care facilities can help the treating physician decide regarding referral and counseling the parents regarding the probable clinical outcome.

  1. Pre-transplant reversible pulmonary hypertension predicts higher risk for mortality after cardiac transplantation.

    PubMed

    Butler, Javed; Stankewicz, Mark A; Wu, Jack; Chomsky, Don B; Howser, Renee L; Khadim, Ghazanfar; Davis, Stacy F; Pierson, Richard N; Wilson, John R

    2005-02-01

    Pre-transplant fixed pulmonary hypertension is associated with higher post-transplant mortality. In this study, we assessed the significance of pre-transplant reversible pulmonary hypertension in patients undergoing cardiac transplantation. Overall, we studied 182 patients with baseline normal pulmonary pressures or reversible pulmonary hypertension, defined as a decrease in pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) to < or =2.5 Wood units (WU), who underwent cardiac transplantation. Multiple recipient and donor characteristics were assessed to identify independent predictors of mortality. The average duration of follow-up was 42 +/- 28 months. Forty patients (22%) died during the follow-up period. Baseline hemodynamics for alive vs dead patients were as follows: pulmonary artery systolic (PAS) 42 +/- 15 vs 52 +/- 15 mm Hg; PA diastolic 21 +/- 9 vs 25 +/- 9 mm Hg; PA mean 28 +/- 11 vs 35 +/- 10 mm Hg; transpulmonary gradient (TPG) 9 +/- 4 vs 11 +/- 7 mm Hg (all p < 0.05); total pulmonary resistance 7.7 +/- 4.8 vs 8.8 +/- 3.2 WU (p = 0.08); and PVR 2.3 +/- 1.5 vs 2.9 +/- 1.6 WU (p = 0.06). In an unadjusted analysis, patients with PAS >50 mm Hg had a higher risk of death (odds ratio [OR] 5.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.46 to 19.84 as compared with PAS < or =30 mm Hg). There was no significant difference in survival among patients with baseline PVR <2.5, 2.5 to 4.0 or >4.0 WU, but patients with TPG > or =16 had a higher risk of mortality (OR 4.93, 95% CI 1.84 to 13.17). PAS pressure was an independent predictor of mortality (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.06). Recipient body mass index, history of sternotomy; and donor ischemic time were the other independent predictors of mortality. Pre-transplant pulmonary hypertension, even when reversible to a PVR of < or =2.5 WU, is associated with a higher mortality post-transplant.

  2. Venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in adult respiratory failure: Scores for mortality prediction.

    PubMed

    Hsin, Chun-Hsien; Wu, Meng-Yu; Huang, Chung-Chi; Kao, Kuo-Chin; Lin, Pyng-Jing

    2016-06-01

    Despite a potentially effective therapy for adult respiratory failure, a general agreement on venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) has not been reached among institutions due to its invasiveness and high resource usage. To establish consensus on the timing of intervention, large ECMO organizations have published the respiratory extracorporeal membrane oxygenation survival prediction (RESP) score and the ECMOnet score, which allow users to predict hospital mortality for candidates with their pre-ECMO presentations. This study was aimed to test the predictive powers of these published scores in a medium-sized cohort enrolling adults treated with VV-ECMO for acute respiratory failure, and develop an institutional prediction model under the framework of the 3 scores if a superior predictive power could be achieved. This retrospective study included 107 adults who received VV-ECMO for severe acute respiratory failure (a PaO2/FiO2 ratio <70 mm Hg) in a tertiary referral center from 2007 to 2015. Essential demographic and clinical data were collected to calculate the RESP score, the ECMOnet score, and the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score before VV-ECMO. The predictive power of hospital mortality of each score was presented as the area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The multivariate logistic regression was used to develop an institutional prediction model. The surviving to discharge rate was 55% (n = 59). All of the 3 published scores had a real but poor predictive power of hospital mortality in this study. The AUROCs of RESP score, ECMOnet score, and SOFA score were 0.662 (P = 0.004), 0.616 (P = 0.04), and 0.667 (P = 0.003), respectively. An institutional prediction model was established from these score parameters and presented as follows: hospital mortality (Y) = -3.173 + 0.208 × (pre-ECMO SOFA score) + 0.148 × (pre-ECMO mechanical ventilation day) + 1.021

  3. TI-59 programmable calculator program for calculating predicted operative mortality in general surgery.

    PubMed

    Haddad, M; Reiss, R; Lilos, P; Fuchs, C

    1986-01-01

    A program for the TI-59 programmable calculator for calculating predicted postoperative mortality is presented. Input data are based on handy, clinical, non-invasive pre-operative and operative parameters retrieved mostly significant in this respect by former multivariate logistic regression analysis of a broad data-base; their relative weights are incorporated into the program data base as basic coefficients. Considerations employed in its usage are discussed, as well as possible future technical and/or environmental modifications.

  4. [Mortality predictive factors in patients with urinary sepsis associated to upper urinary tract calculi].

    PubMed

    Badia, M; Iglesias, S; Serviá, L; Domingo, J; Gormaz, P; Vilanova, J; Gavilan, R; Trujillano, J

    2015-01-01

    The aims of this study were to determine the clinical characteristics of patients with urinary sepsis associated to ureteral calculi admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), and to identify predictors of mortality in the first 24 hours of admission. A retrospective observational study covering a 16-year period (2006-2011) was carried out. The combined clinical/surgical ICU of a secondary-level University hospital. All patients admitted to the ICU due to obstructive urinary sepsis. None. We analyzed general clinical and laboratory test and urological data. The diagnostic technique, affected side, decompression technique, isolated microorganism and antibiotic therapy used were also considered. The assessment of risk factors was performed by multiple logistic regression analysis. A total of 107 patients admitted to the ICU were included in the study, with a mortality rate of 19.6%. The diagnosis was mainly established by ultrasound, and the most commonly used decompression technique was retrograde JJ stenting. Microorganisms were isolated in 48.6% of the patients. In total, 20.6% of the patients had bacteremia. Multivariate analysis found age, acute renal failure and the use of vasoactive drugs administered continuously for the first 24 hours of admission to be independently associated to mortality. Advanced age, acute renal failure and the need for vasoactive drugs were associated to an increased risk of mortality in patients with urinary sepsis associated to upper urinary tract calculi. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

  5. Development and validation of a risk score for predicting operative mortality in heart failure patients undergoing surgical ventricular reconstruction.

    PubMed

    Castelvecchio, Serenella; Menicanti, Lorenzo; Ranucci, Marco

    2015-05-01

    Different risk models have been introduced and refined in the past in order to improve standards of care. However, the predictive power of any risk algorithms can decline over time due to changes in surgical practice and the population's risk profile. The present study aimed to develop and validate a risk model for predicting operative mortality in patients with ischaemic heart failure (HF) undergoing surgical ventricular reconstruction (SVR). The study population included 525 patients with previous myocardial infarction and left ventricular remodelling referred to our centre for SVR. All patients underwent surgical reshaping; coronary artery bypass grafting was performed in 489 (93%) patients and mitral valve (MV) repair in 142 (27%). Operative mortality was defined as death within 30 days after surgery. All patients received an operative risk assessment using the logistic EuroSCORE and the ACEF score. Better accuracy was achieved by the ACEF score (0.771) compared with the EuroSCORE (0.747). On multivariable logistic regression analysis, forcing the ACEF score in the model, three additional factors remained as independent predictors of operative mortality: atrial fibrillation, NYHA Class 3-4 and MV surgery (odds ratio 2.2, 2.6 and 2.1, respectively) and were computed in the ACEF-SVR. The ACEF-SVR score demonstrated an improved accuracy in respect of the ACEF score (from 0.771 to 0.792) and a better calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2) of 5.40, P = 0.714). The ACEF-SVR score, starting from a simplified model of risk enabled improvement in the accuracy and calibration of the model, tailoring the risk to a specific population of patients with HF undergoing a specific surgical procedure. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  6. Using Wind Tunnels to Predict Bird Mortality in Wind Farms: The Case of Griffon Vultures

    PubMed Central

    de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F. E.

    2012-01-01

    Background Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. Methodology/Principal Findings As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. Conclusions Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed). We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality. PMID:23152764

  7. Medical comorbidities predict mortality in women with a history of early stage breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Patterson, Ruth E; Flatt, Shirley W; Saquib, Nazmus; Rock, Cheryl L; Caan, Bette J; Parker, Barbara A; Laughlin, Gail A; Erickson, Kirsten; Thomson, Cynthia A; Bardwell, Wayne A; Hajek, Richard A; Pierce, John P

    2010-08-01

    This analysis was conducted to determine whether comorbid medical conditions predict additional breast cancer events and all-cause mortality in women with a history of early stage breast cancer. Women (n = 2,542) participating in a randomized diet trial completed a self-administered questionnaire regarding whether they were currently being treated for a wide variety of diseases (cardiovascular, diabetes, gallbladder, gastrointestinal, arthritis, and osteoporosis) and conditions (high blood pressure, elevated cholesterol level). Height and weight were measured at baseline. Participants were followed for a median of 7.3 years (range 0.8-15.0). Cox regression analysis was performed to assess whether comorbidities predicted disease-free and overall survival; hazard ratio (HR) was the measure of association. Overall, there were 406 additional breast cancer events and 242 deaths. Participants with diabetes had over twofold the risk of additional breast cancer events (HR 2.1, 95% CI: 1.3, 3.4) and mortality (HR 2.5, 95% CI: 1.4, 4.4). The presence of multiple comorbidities did not statistically significantly predict additional breast cancer events. However, compared to no comorbidities, participants with 3 or more comorbidities had a HR of 2.1, 95% CI: 1.3, 3.3 for mortality. In conclusion, type 2 diabetes is associated with poor breast cancer prognosis. Given that 85% of deaths were caused by breast cancer, these findings suggest that multiple comorbidities may reduce the likelihood of surviving additional breast cancer events.

  8. Temperature multiscale entropy analysis: a promising marker for early prediction of mortality in septic patients.

    PubMed

    Papaioannou, V E; Chouvarda, I G; Maglaveras, N K; Baltopoulos, G I; Pneumatikos, I A

    2013-11-01

    A few studies estimating temperature complexity have found decreased Shannon entropy, during severe stress. In this study, we measured both Shannon and Tsallis entropy of temperature signals in a cohort of critically ill patients and compared these measures with the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, in terms of intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. Skin temperature was recorded in 21 mechanically ventilated patients, who developed sepsis and septic shock during the first 24 h of an ICU-acquired infection. Shannon and Tsallis entropies were calculated in wavelet-based decompositions of the temperature signal. Statistically significant differences of entropy features were tested between survivors and non-survivors and classification models were built, for predicting final outcome. Significantly reduced Tsallis and Shannon entropies were found in non-survivors (seven patients, 33%) as compared to survivors. Wavelet measurements of both entropy metrics were found to predict ICU mortality better than SOFA, according to a combination of area under the curve, sensitivity and specificity values. Both entropies exhibited similar prognostic accuracy. Combination of SOFA and entropy presented improved the outcome of univariate models. We suggest that reduced wavelet Shannon and Tsallis entropies of temperature signals may complement SOFA in mortality prediction, during the first 24 h of an ICU-acquired infection.

  9. Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures.

    PubMed

    de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F E

    2012-01-01

    Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed). We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality.

  10. Fetal MRI for prediction of neonatal mortality following preterm premature rupture of the fetal membranes.

    PubMed

    Messerschmidt, Agnes; Pataraia, Anna; Helmer, Hanns; Kasprian, Gregor; Sauer, Alexandra; Brugger, Peter C; Pollak, Arnold; Weber, Michael; Prayer, Daniela

    2011-11-01

    Lung MRI volumetrics may be valuable for fetal assessment following early preterm premature rupture of the foetal membranes (pPROM). To evaluate the predictive value of MRI lung volumetrics after pPROM. Retrospective cohort study of 40 fetuses after pPROM in a large, tertiary, perinatal referral center. Fetuses underwent MRI lung volumetrics. Estimated lung volume was expressed as percentage of expected lung volume (our own normal references). Primary outcome was neonatal mortality due to respiratory distress before discharge from hospital. Gestational age range was 16-27 weeks. Estimated-to-expected lung volume was 73% in non-survivors and 102% in survivors (P < 0.05). There were no survivors with a lung volume less than 60% of expected. By logistic regression, mortality could be predicted with a sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 86% and accuracy of 85%. Fetal MR lung volumetrics may be useful for predicting mortality due to respiratory distress in children with early gestational pPROM.

  11. Computerized ST depression analysis improves prediction of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: the strong heart study.

    PubMed

    Okin, P M; Devereux, R B; Kors, J A; van Herpen, G; Crow, R S; Fabsitz, R R; Howard, B V

    2001-04-01

    Nonspecific ST depression assessed by standard visual Minnesota coding (MC) has been demonstrated to predict risk. Although computer analysis has been applied to digital ECGs for MC, the prognostic value of computerized MC and computerized ST depression analyses have not been examined in relation to standard visual MC. The predictive value of nonspecific ST depression as determined by visual and computerized MC codes 4.2 or 4.3 was compared with computer-measured ST depression >or= 50 microV in 2,127 American Indian participants in the first Strong Heart Study examination. Computerized MC and ST depression were determined using separate computerized-ECG analysis programs and visual MC was performed by an experienced ECG core laboratory. The prevalence of MC 4.2 or 4.3 by computer was higher than by visual analysis (6.4 vs 4.4%, P < 0.001). After mean follow-up of 3.7 +/- 0.9 years, there were 73 cardiovascular deaths and 227 deaths from all causes. In univariate Cox analyses, visual MC (relative risk [RR] 4.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.6-9.1), computerized MC (RR 6.0, 95% CI 3.5-10.3), and computer-measured ST depression (RR 7.6, 95% CI 4.5-12.9) were all significant predictors of cardiovascular death. In separate multivariate Cox regression analyses that included age, sex, diabetes, HDL and LDL cholesterol, body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, microalbuminuria, smoking, and the presence of coronary heart disease, computerized MC (RR 3.0, 95% CI 1.6-5.6) and computer-measured ST depression (RR 3.1, 95% CI 1.7-5.7), but not visual MC, remained significant predictors of cardiovascular mortality. When both computerized MC and computer-measured ST depression were entered into the multivariate Cox regression, each variable provided independent risk stratification (RR 2.1, 95% CI 1.0-4.4, and RR 2.1, 95% CI 1.0-4.4, respectively). Similarly, computerized MC and computer-measured ST depression, but not visual MC, were independent predictors of all

  12. Total-to-ionized calcium ratio predicts mortality in continuous renal replacement therapy with citrate anticoagulation in critically ill patients

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Regional citrate anticoagulation is safe, feasible and increasingly used in critically ill patients on continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). However, in patients with hepatic or multi-organ dysfunction, citrate accumulation may lead to an imbalance of calcium homeostasis. The study aimed at evaluating the incidence and prognostic relevance of an increased total to ionized calcium ratio (T/I Ca2+ ratio) and its association to hepatic dysfunction. Methods We performed a prospective observational study on n = 208 critically ill patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) and necessity for CRRT with regional citrate anticoagulation (CRRT-citrate) between September 2009 and September 2011. Critical illness was estimated by Simplified Acute Physiology Score II; hepatic function was measured with indocyanine green plasma dis