Science.gov

Sample records for preliminary geostatistical modeling

  1. Model Selection for Geostatistical Models

    SciTech Connect

    Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Davis, Richard A.; Merton, Andrew A.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2006-02-01

    We consider the problem of model selection for geospatial data. Spatial correlation is typically ignored in the selection of explanatory variables and this can influence model selection results. For example, the inclusion or exclusion of particular explanatory variables may not be apparent when spatial correlation is ignored. To address this problem, we consider the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) as applied to a geostatistical model. We offer a heuristic derivation of the AIC in this context and provide simulation results that show that using AIC for a geostatistical model is superior to the often used approach of ignoring spatial correlation in the selection of explanatory variables. These ideas are further demonstrated via a model for lizard abundance. We also employ the principle of minimum description length (MDL) to variable selection for the geostatistical model. The effect of sampling design on the selection of explanatory covariates is also explored.

  2. Model selection for geostatistical models.

    PubMed

    Hoeting, Jennifer A; Davis, Richard A; Merton, Andrew A; Thompson, Sandra E

    2006-02-01

    We consider the problem of model selection for geospatial data. Spatial correlation is often ignored in the selection of explanatory variables, and this can influence model selection results. For example, the importance of particular explanatory variables may not be apparent when spatial correlation is ignored. To address this problem, we consider the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) as applied to a geostatistical model. We offer a heuristic derivation of the AIC in this context and provide simulation results that show that using AIC for a geostatistical model is superior to the often-used traditional approach of ignoring spatial correlation in the selection of explanatory variables. These ideas are further demonstrated via a model for lizard abundance. We also apply the principle of minimum description length (MDL) to variable selection for the geostatistical model. The effect of sampling design on the selection of explanatory covariates is also explored. R software to implement the geostatistical model selection methods described in this paper is available in the Supplement.

  3. Geostatistical Modeling of Pore Velocity

    SciTech Connect

    Devary, J.L.; Doctor, P.G.

    1981-06-01

    A significant part of evaluating a geologic formation as a nuclear waste repository involves the modeling of contaminant transport in the surrounding media in the event the repository is breached. The commonly used contaminant transport models are deterministic. However, the spatial variability of hydrologic field parameters introduces uncertainties into contaminant transport predictions. This paper discusses the application of geostatistical techniques to the modeling of spatially varying hydrologic field parameters required as input to contaminant transport analyses. Kriging estimation techniques were applied to Hanford Reservation field data to calculate hydraulic conductivity and the ground-water potential gradients. These quantities were statistically combined to estimate the groundwater pore velocity and to characterize the pore velocity estimation error. Combining geostatistical modeling techniques with product error propagation techniques results in an effective stochastic characterization of groundwater pore velocity, a hydrologic parameter required for contaminant transport analyses.

  4. A PC-Windows-Based program for geostatistical modeling application

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, G.G.; Yang, A.P.

    1994-12-31

    This paper describes a technically advanced, user-friendly, PC-Windows{sup TM} based reservoir simulation tool (SIMTOOLS) that allows construction of realistic reservoir models using a geostatistical approach. This PC-Windows based product has three application tools: Digitizing, mapping, and geostatistics. It has been designed primarily to enable reservoir engineers to apply the geostatistical gridding technique in mapping and reservoir simulation practices.

  5. Geostatistics: models and tools for the earth sciences

    SciTech Connect

    Journel, A.G.

    1986-01-01

    The probability construct underlying geostatistical methodology is recalled, stressing that stationary is a property of the model rather than of the phenomenon being represented. Geostatistics is more then interpolation and kriging(s) is more than linear interpolation through ordinary kriging. A few common misconceptions are addressed.

  6. [Geostatistical modeling of Ascaris lumbricoides infection].

    PubMed

    Fortes, Bruno de Paula Menezes Drumond; Ortiz Valencia, Luis Iván; Ribeiro, Simone do Vale; Medronho, Roberto de Andrade

    2004-01-01

    The following study intends to model the spatial distribution of ascariasis, through the use of geoprocessing and geostatistic analysis. The database used in the study was taken from the PAISQUA project, including a coproparasitologic and domiciliary survey, conducted in 19 selected census tracts of Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, randomly selecting a group of 1,550 children aged 1 to 9 years old plotting them in their respective domicile's centroids. Risk maps of Ascaris lumbricoides were generated by indicator kriging. The estimated and observed values from the cross-validation were compared using a ROC curve. An isotropic spherical semivariogram model with a range of 30m and nugget effect of 50% was employed in ordinary indicator kriging to create a map of probability of A. lumbricoides infection. The area under the ROC curve indicated a significant global accuracy. The occurrence of disease could be estimated in the study area, and a risk map was elaborated through the use ordinary kriging. The spatial statistics analysis has proven itself adequate for predicting the occurrence of ascariasis, unrestricted to the regions political boundaries.

  7. High Performance Geostatistical Modeling of Biospheric Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pedelty, J. A.; Morisette, J. T.; Smith, J. A.; Schnase, J. L.; Crosier, C. S.; Stohlgren, T. J.

    2004-12-01

    We are using parallel geostatistical codes to study spatial relationships among biospheric resources in several study areas. For example, spatial statistical models based on large- and small-scale variability have been used to predict species richness of both native and exotic plants (hot spots of diversity) and patterns of exotic plant invasion. However, broader use of geostastics in natural resource modeling, especially at regional and national scales, has been limited due to the large computing requirements of these applications. To address this problem, we implemented parallel versions of the kriging spatial interpolation algorithm. The first uses the Message Passing Interface (MPI) in a master/slave paradigm on an open source Linux Beowulf cluster, while the second is implemented with the new proprietary Xgrid distributed processing system on an Xserve G5 cluster from Apple Computer, Inc. These techniques are proving effective and provide the basis for a national decision support capability for invasive species management that is being jointly developed by NASA and the US Geological Survey.

  8. Preferential sampling and Bayesian geostatistics: Statistical modeling and examples.

    PubMed

    Cecconi, Lorenzo; Grisotto, Laura; Catelan, Dolores; Lagazio, Corrado; Berrocal, Veronica; Biggeri, Annibale

    2016-08-01

    Preferential sampling refers to any situation in which the spatial process and the sampling locations are not stochastically independent. In this paper, we present two examples of geostatistical analysis in which the usual assumption of stochastic independence between the point process and the measurement process is violated. To account for preferential sampling, we specify a flexible and general Bayesian geostatistical model that includes a shared spatial random component. We apply the proposed model to two different case studies that allow us to highlight three different modeling and inferential aspects of geostatistical modeling under preferential sampling: (1) continuous or finite spatial sampling frame; (2) underlying causal model and relevant covariates; and (3) inferential goals related to mean prediction surface or prediction uncertainty.

  9. Gstat: a program for geostatistical modelling, prediction and simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pebesma, Edzer J.; Wesseling, Cees G.

    1998-01-01

    Gstat is a computer program for variogram modelling, and geostatistical prediction and simulation. It provides a generic implementation of the multivariable linear model with trends modelled as a linear function of coordinate polynomials or of user-defined base functions, and independent or dependent, geostatistically modelled, residuals. Simulation in gstat comprises conditional or unconditional (multi-) Gaussian sequential simulation of point values or block averages, or (multi-) indicator sequential simulation. Besides many of the popular options found in other geostatistical software packages, gstat offers the unique combination of (i) an interactive user interface for modelling variograms and generalized covariances (residual variograms), that uses the device-independent plotting program gnuplot for graphical display, (ii) support for several ascii and binary data and map file formats for input and output, (iii) a concise, intuitive and flexible command language, (iv) user customization of program defaults, (v) no built-in limits, and (vi) free, portable ANSI-C source code. This paper describes the class of problems gstat can solve, and addresses aspects of efficiency and implementation, managing geostatistical projects, and relevant technical details.

  10. EFFICIENT MODEL-FITTING AND MODEL-COMPARISON FOR HIGH-DIMENSIONAL BAYESIAN GEOSTATISTICAL MODELS. (R826887)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Geostatistical models are appropriate for spatially distributed data measured at irregularly spaced locations. We propose an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for fitting Bayesian geostatistical models with substantial numbers of unknown parameters to sizable...

  11. Geostatistical model to estimate in stream pollutant loads and concentrations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polus, E.; Flipo, N.; de Fouquet, C.; Poulin, M.

    2009-04-01

    Models that estimate loads and concentrations of pollutants in streams can roughly be classified into two categories: physically-based and stochastic models. While the first ones tend to reproduce physical processes that occur in streams, the stochastic models consider loads and concentrations as random variables. This work is interesting in such models and particularly in geostatistical models, which provide an estimate of loads and concentrations and the joint measurement of uncertainty also: the estimation variance. Along a stream network that can be modelled as a graph, most of usual geostatistical covariance or variogram models are not valid anymore. Based on recent models applied on tree graphs, we present a covariance or variogram construction combining one-dimensional Random Functions (RF) defined on each path between sources and the outlet. The model properties are examined, namely the consistency conditions at the confluences for different variables. In practice, the scarcity of spatial data makes a precise inference of covariances difficult. Can then a phenomenological model be used to guide the geostatistical modelling? To answer this question the example of a portion of the Seine River (France) is examined, where both measurement data and the outputs of the physically-based model ProSe are used. The comparison between both data sets shows an excellent agreement for discharges and a consistent one for nitrate concentrations. Nevertheless, a detailed exploratory analysis brings to light the importance of the boundary conditions, which ones are not consistent with the downstream measurements. The agreement between data and modelled values can be improved thanks to a reconstruction of consistent boundary conditions by cokriging. This is an example of the usefulness of using jointly physically-based models and geostatistics. The next step is a joint modelling of discharges, loads and concentrations along the stream network. This modelling should improve the

  12. Fractal and geostatistical methods for modeling of a fracture network

    SciTech Connect

    Chiles, J.P.

    1988-08-01

    The modeling of fracture networks is useful for fluid flow and rock mechanics studies. About 6600 fracture traces were recorded on drifts of a uranium mine in a granite massif. The traces have an extension of 0.20-20 m. The network was studied by fractal and by geostatistical methods but can be considered neither as a fractal with a constant dimension nor a set of purely randomly located fractures. Two kinds of generalization of conventional models can still provide more flexibility for the characterization of the network: (a) a nonscaling fractal model with variable similarity dimension (for a 2-D network of traces, the dimension varying from 2 for the 10-m scale to 1 for the centimeter scale, (b) a parent-daughter model with a regionalized density; the geostatistical study allows a 3-D model to be established where: fractures are assumed to be discs; fractures are grouped in clusters or swarms; and fracturation density is regionalized (with two ranges at about 30 and 300 m). The fractal model is easy to fit and to simulate along a line, but 2-D and 3-D simulations are more difficult. The geostatistical model is more complex, but easy to simulate, even in 3-D.

  13. Stochastic Local Interaction (SLI) model: Bridging machine learning and geostatistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hristopulos, Dionissios T.

    2015-12-01

    Machine learning and geostatistics are powerful mathematical frameworks for modeling spatial data. Both approaches, however, suffer from poor scaling of the required computational resources for large data applications. We present the Stochastic Local Interaction (SLI) model, which employs a local representation to improve computational efficiency. SLI combines geostatistics and machine learning with ideas from statistical physics and computational geometry. It is based on a joint probability density function defined by an energy functional which involves local interactions implemented by means of kernel functions with adaptive local kernel bandwidths. SLI is expressed in terms of an explicit, typically sparse, precision (inverse covariance) matrix. This representation leads to a semi-analytical expression for interpolation (prediction), which is valid in any number of dimensions and avoids the computationally costly covariance matrix inversion.

  14. Can Geostatistical Models Represent Nature's Variability? An Analysis Using Flume Experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheidt, C.; Fernandes, A. M.; Paola, C.; Caers, J.

    2015-12-01

    The lack of understanding in the Earth's geological and physical processes governing sediment deposition render subsurface modeling subject to large uncertainty. Geostatistics is often used to model uncertainty because of its capability to stochastically generate spatially varying realizations of the subsurface. These methods can generate a range of realizations of a given pattern - but how representative are these of the full natural variability? And how can we identify the minimum set of images that represent this natural variability? Here we use this minimum set to define the geostatistical prior model: a set of training images that represent the range of patterns generated by autogenic variability in the sedimentary environment under study. The proper definition of the prior model is essential in capturing the variability of the depositional patterns. This work starts with a set of overhead images from an experimental basin that showed ongoing autogenic variability. We use the images to analyze the essential characteristics of this suite of patterns. In particular, our goal is to define a prior model (a minimal set of selected training images) such that geostatistical algorithms, when applied to this set, can reproduce the full measured variability. A necessary prerequisite is to define a measure of variability. In this study, we measure variability using a dissimilarity distance between the images. The distance indicates whether two snapshots contain similar depositional patterns. To reproduce the variability in the images, we apply an MPS algorithm to the set of selected snapshots of the sedimentary basin that serve as training images. The training images are chosen from among the initial set by using the distance measure to ensure that only dissimilar images are chosen. Preliminary investigations show that MPS can reproduce fairly accurately the natural variability of the experimental depositional system. Furthermore, the selected training images provide

  15. Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Malaria Indicator Survey Data in Angola

    PubMed Central

    Gosoniu, Laura; Veta, Andre Mia; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2010-01-01

    The 2006–2007 Angola Malaria Indicator Survey (AMIS) is the first nationally representative household survey in the country assessing coverage of the key malaria control interventions and measuring malaria-related burden among children under 5 years of age. In this paper, the Angolan MIS data were analyzed to produce the first smooth map of parasitaemia prevalence based on contemporary nationwide empirical data in the country. Bayesian geostatistical models were fitted to assess the effect of interventions after adjusting for environmental, climatic and socio-economic factors. Non-linear relationships between parasitaemia risk and environmental predictors were modeled by categorizing the covariates and by employing two non-parametric approaches, the B-splines and the P-splines. The results of the model validation showed that the categorical model was able to better capture the relationship between parasitaemia prevalence and the environmental factors. Model fit and prediction were handled within a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Combining estimates of parasitaemia prevalence with the number of children under we obtained estimates of the number of infected children in the country. The population-adjusted prevalence ranges from in Namibe province to in Malanje province. The odds of parasitaemia in children living in a household with at least ITNs per person was by 41% lower (CI: 14%, 60%) than in those with fewer ITNs. The estimates of the number of parasitaemic children produced in this paper are important for planning and implementing malaria control interventions and for monitoring the impact of prevention and control activities. PMID:20351775

  16. Geostatistical Modeling of Evolving Landscapes by Means of Image Quilting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendes, J. H.; Caers, J.; Scheidt, C.

    2015-12-01

    Realistic geological representation of subsurface heterogeneity remains an important outstanding challenge. While many geostatistical methods exist for representing sedimentary systems, such as multiple-point geostatistics, rule-based methods or Boolean methods, the question of what the prior uncertainty on parameters (or training images) of such algorithms are, remains outstanding. In this initial work, we investigate the use of flume experiments to constrain better such prior uncertainty and to start understanding what information should be provided to geostatistical algorithms. In particular, we study the use of image quilting as a novel multiple-point method for generating fast geostatistical realizations once a training image is provided. Image quilting is a method emanating from computer graphics where patterns are extracted from training images and then stochastically quilted along a raster path to create stochastic variation of the stated training image. In this initial study, we use a flume experiment and extract 10 training images as representative for the variability of the evolving landscape over a period of 136 minutes. The training images consists of wet/dry regions obtained from overhead shots taken over the flume experiment. To investigate whether such image quilting reproduces the same variability of the evolving landscape in terms of wet/dry regions, we generate multiple realizations with all 10 training images and compare that variability with the variability seen in the entire flume experiment. By proper tuning of the quilting parameters we find generally reasonable agreement with the flume experiment.

  17. Brain lesion detection in MRI with fuzzy and geostatistical models.

    PubMed

    Pham, Tuan D

    2010-01-01

    Automated image detection of white matter changes of the brain is essentially helpful in providing a quantitative measure for studying the association of white matter lesions with other types of biomedical data. Such study allows the possibility of several medical hypothesis validations which lead to therapeutic treatment and prevention. This paper presents a new clustering-based segmentation approach for detecting white matter changes in magnetic resonance imaging with particular reference to cognitive decline in the elderly. The proposed method is formulated using the principles of fuzzy c-means algorithm and geostatistics.

  18. Combined assimilation of streamflow and satellite soil moisture with the particle filter and geostatistical modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Hongxiang; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2016-08-01

    Assimilation of satellite soil moisture and streamflow data into a distributed hydrologic model has received increasing attention over the past few years. This study provides a detailed analysis of the joint and separate assimilation of streamflow and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) surface soil moisture into a distributed Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model, with the use of recently developed particle filter-Markov chain Monte Carlo (PF-MCMC) method. Performance is assessed over the Salt River Watershed in Arizona, which is one of the watersheds without anthropogenic effects in Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). A total of five data assimilation (DA) scenarios are designed and the effects of the locations of streamflow gauges and the ASCAT soil moisture on the predictions of soil moisture and streamflow are assessed. In addition, a geostatistical model is introduced to overcome the significantly biased satellite soil moisture and also discontinuity issue. The results indicate that: (1) solely assimilating outlet streamflow can lead to biased soil moisture estimation; (2) when the study area can only be partially covered by the satellite data, the geostatistical approach can estimate the soil moisture for those uncovered grid cells; (3) joint assimilation of streamflow and soil moisture from geostatistical modeling can further improve the surface soil moisture prediction. This study recommends that the geostatistical model is a helpful tool to aid the remote sensing technique and the hydrologic DA study.

  19. Integrated geostatistics for modeling fluid contacts and shales in Prudhoe Bay

    SciTech Connect

    Perez, G.; Chopra, A.K.; Severson, C.D.

    1997-12-01

    Geostatistics techniques are being used increasingly to model reservoir heterogeneity at a wide range of scales. A variety of techniques is now available with differing underlying assumptions, complexity, and applications. This paper introduces a novel method of geostatistics to model dynamic gas-oil contacts and shales in the Prudhoe Bay reservoir. The method integrates reservoir description and surveillance data within the same geostatistical framework. Surveillance logs and shale data are transformed to indicator variables. These variables are used to evaluate vertical and horizontal spatial correlation and cross-correlation of gas and shale at different times and to develop variogram models. Conditional simulation techniques are used to generate multiple three-dimensional (3D) descriptions of gas and shales that provide a measure of uncertainty. These techniques capture the complex 3D distribution of gas-oil contacts through time. The authors compare results of the geostatistical method with conventional techniques as well as with infill wells drilled after the study. Predicted gas-oil contacts and shale distributions are in close agreement with gas-oil contacts observed at infill wells.

  20. Quantifying natural delta variability using a multiple-point geostatistics prior uncertainty model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheidt, Céline; Fernandes, Anjali M.; Paola, Chris; Caers, Jef

    2016-10-01

    We address the question of quantifying uncertainty associated with autogenic pattern variability in a channelized transport system by means of a modern geostatistical method. This question has considerable relevance for practical subsurface applications as well, particularly those related to uncertainty quantification relying on Bayesian approaches. Specifically, we show how the autogenic variability in a laboratory experiment can be represented and reproduced by a multiple-point geostatistical prior uncertainty model. The latter geostatistical method requires selection of a limited set of training images from which a possibly infinite set of geostatistical model realizations, mimicking the training image patterns, can be generated. To that end, we investigate two methods to determine how many training images and what training images should be provided to reproduce natural autogenic variability. The first method relies on distance-based clustering of overhead snapshots of the experiment; the second method relies on a rate of change quantification by means of a computer vision algorithm termed the demon algorithm. We show quantitatively that with either training image selection method, we can statistically reproduce the natural variability of the delta formed in the experiment. In addition, we study the nature of the patterns represented in the set of training images as a representation of the "eigenpatterns" of the natural system. The eigenpattern in the training image sets display patterns consistent with previous physical interpretations of the fundamental modes of this type of delta system: a highly channelized, incisional mode; a poorly channelized, depositional mode; and an intermediate mode between the two.

  1. Geostatistical applications in ground-water modeling in south-central Kansas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ma, T.-S.; Sophocleous, M.; Yu, Y.-S.

    1999-01-01

    This paper emphasizes the supportive role of geostatistics in applying ground-water models. Field data of 1994 ground-water level, bedrock, and saltwater-freshwater interface elevations in south-central Kansas were collected and analyzed using the geostatistical approach. Ordinary kriging was adopted to estimate initial conditions for ground-water levels and topography of the Permian bedrock at the nodes of a finite difference grid used in a three-dimensional numerical model. Cokriging was used to estimate initial conditions for the saltwater-freshwater interface. An assessment of uncertainties in the estimated data is presented. The kriged and cokriged estimation variances were analyzed to evaluate the adequacy of data employed in the modeling. Although water levels and bedrock elevations are well described by spherical semivariogram models, additional data are required for better cokriging estimation of the interface data. The geostatistically analyzed data were employed in a numerical model of the Siefkes site in the project area. Results indicate that the computed chloride concentrations and ground-water drawdowns reproduced the observed data satisfactorily.This paper emphasizes the supportive role of geostatistics in applying ground-water models. Field data of 1994 ground-water level, bedrock, and saltwater-freshwater interface elevations in south-central Kansas were collected and analyzed using the geostatistical approach. Ordinary kriging was adopted to estimate initial conditions for ground-water levels and topography of the Permian bedrock at the nodes of a finite difference grid used in a three-dimensional numerical model. Cokriging was used to estimate initial conditions for the saltwater-freshwater interface. An assessment of uncertainties in the estimated data is presented. The kriged and cokriged estimation variances were analyzed to evaluate the adequacy of data employed in the modeling. Although water levels and bedrock elevations are well described

  2. A geostatistical methodology to assess the accuracy of unsaturated flow models

    SciTech Connect

    Smoot, J.L.; Williams, R.E.

    1996-04-01

    The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory spatiotemporal movement of water injected into (PNNL) has developed a Hydrologic unsaturated sediments at the Hanford Site in Evaluation Methodology (HEM) to assist the Washington State was used to develop a new U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in method for evaluating mathematical model evaluating the potential that infiltrating meteoric predictions. Measured water content data were water will produce leachate at commercial low- interpolated geostatistically to a 16 x 16 x 36 level radioactive waste disposal sites. Two key grid at several time intervals. Then a issues are raised in the HEM: (1) evaluation of mathematical model was used to predict water mathematical models that predict facility content at the same grid locations at the selected performance, and (2) estimation of the times. Node-by-node comparison of the uncertainty associated with these mathematical mathematical model predictions with the model predictions. The technical objective of geostatistically interpolated values was this research is to adapt geostatistical tools conducted. The method facilitates a complete commonly used for model parameter estimation accounting and categorization of model error at to the problem of estimating the spatial every node. The comparison suggests that distribution of the dependent variable to be model results generally are within measurement calculated by the model. To fulfill this error. The worst model error occurs in silt objective, a database describing the lenses and is in excess of measurement error.

  3. Validation and comparison of geostatistical and spline models for spatial stream networks.

    PubMed

    Rushworth, A M; Peterson, E E; Ver Hoef, J M; Bowman, A W

    2015-08-01

    Scientists need appropriate spatial-statistical models to account for the unique features of stream network data. Recent advances provide a growing methodological toolbox for modelling these data, but general-purpose statistical software has only recently emerged, with little information about when to use different approaches. We implemented a simulation study to evaluate and validate geostatistical models that use continuous distances, and penalised spline models that use a finite discrete approximation for stream networks. Data were simulated from the geostatistical model, with performance measured by empirical prediction and fixed effects estimation. We found that both models were comparable in terms of squared error, with a slight advantage for the geostatistical models. Generally, both methods were unbiased and had valid confidence intervals. The most marked differences were found for confidence intervals on fixed-effect parameter estimates, where, for small sample sizes, the spline models underestimated variance. However, the penalised spline models were always more computationally efficient, which may be important for real-time prediction and estimation. Thus, decisions about which method to use must be influenced by the size and format of the data set, in addition to the characteristics of the environmental process and the modelling goals. ©2015 The Authors. Environmetrics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Estimation of water table level and nitrate pollution based on geostatistical and multiple mass transport models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matiatos, Ioannis; Varouhakis, Emmanouil A.; Papadopoulou, Maria P.

    2015-04-01

    level and nitrate concentrations were produced and compared with those obtained from groundwater and mass transport numerical models. Preliminary results showed similar efficiency of the spatiotemporal geostatistical method with the numerical models. However data requirements of the former model were significantly less. Advantages and disadvantages of the methods performance were analysed and discussed indicating the characteristics of the different approaches.

  5. Tomogram-based comparison of geostatistical models: Application to the Macrodispersion Experiment (MADE) site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linde, Niklas; Lochbühler, Tobias; Dogan, Mine; Van Dam, Remke L.

    2015-12-01

    We propose a new framework to compare alternative geostatistical descriptions of a given site. Multiple realizations of each of the considered geostatistical models and their corresponding tomograms (based on inversion of noise-contaminated simulated data) are used as a multivariate training image. The training image is scanned with a direct sampling algorithm to obtain conditional realizations of hydraulic conductivity that are not only in agreement with the geostatistical model, but also honor the spatially varying resolution of the site-specific tomogram. Model comparison is based on the quality of the simulated geophysical data from the ensemble of conditional realizations. The tomogram in this study is obtained by inversion of cross-hole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) first-arrival travel time data acquired at the MAcro-Dispersion Experiment (MADE) site in Mississippi (USA). Various heterogeneity descriptions ranging from multi-Gaussian fields to fields with complex multiple-point statistics inferred from outcrops are considered. Under the assumption that the relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity inferred from local measurements is valid, we find that conditioned multi-Gaussian realizations and derivatives thereof can explain the crosshole geophysical data. A training image based on an aquifer analog from Germany was found to be in better agreement with the geophysical data than the one based on the local outcrop, which appears to under-represent high hydraulic conductivity zones. These findings are only based on the information content in a single resolution-limited tomogram and extending the analysis to tracer or higher resolution surface GPR data might lead to different conclusions (e.g., that discrete facies boundaries are necessary). Our framework makes it possible to identify inadequate geostatistical models and petrophysical relationships, effectively narrowing the space of possible heterogeneity representations.

  6. A conceptual sedimentological-geostatistical model of aquifer heterogeneity based on outcrop studies

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    Three outcrop studies were conducted in deposits of different depositional environments. At each site, permeability measurements were obtained with an air-minipermeameter developed as part of this study. In addition, the geological units were mapped with either surveying, photographs, or both. Geostatistical analysis of the permeability data was performed to estimate the characteristics of the probability distribution function and the spatial correlation structure. The information obtained from the geological mapping was then compared with the results of the geostatistical analysis for any relationships that may exist. The main field site was located in the Albuquerque Basin of central New Mexico at an outcrop of the Pliocene-Pleistocene Sierra Ladrones Formation. The second study was conducted on the walls of waste pits in alluvial fan deposits at the Nevada Test Site. The third study was conducted on an outcrop of an eolian deposit (miocene) south of Socorro, New Mexico. The results of the three studies were then used to construct a conceptual model relating depositional environment to geostatistical models of heterogeneity. The model presented is largely qualitative but provides a basis for further hypothesis formulation and testing.

  7. Restricted spatial regression in practice: Geostatistical models, confounding, and robustness under model misspecification

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hanks, Ephraim M.; Schliep, Erin M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.

    2015-01-01

    In spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs), covariates that are spatially smooth are often collinear with spatially smooth random effects. This phenomenon is known as spatial confounding and has been studied primarily in the case where the spatial support of the process being studied is discrete (e.g., areal spatial data). In this case, the most common approach suggested is restricted spatial regression (RSR) in which the spatial random effects are constrained to be orthogonal to the fixed effects. We consider spatial confounding and RSR in the geostatistical (continuous spatial support) setting. We show that RSR provides computational benefits relative to the confounded SGLMM, but that Bayesian credible intervals under RSR can be inappropriately narrow under model misspecification. We propose a posterior predictive approach to alleviating this potential problem and discuss the appropriateness of RSR in a variety of situations. We illustrate RSR and SGLMM approaches through simulation studies and an analysis of malaria frequencies in The Gambia, Africa.

  8. Multivariate Analysis and Modeling of Sediment Pollution Using Neural Network Models and Geostatistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golay, Jean; Kanevski, Mikhaïl

    2013-04-01

    The present research deals with the exploration and modeling of a complex dataset of 200 measurement points of sediment pollution by heavy metals in Lake Geneva. The fundamental idea was to use multivariate Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) along with geostatistical models and tools in order to improve the accuracy and the interpretability of data modeling. The results obtained with ANN were compared to those of traditional geostatistical algorithms like ordinary (co)kriging and (co)kriging with an external drift. Exploratory data analysis highlighted a great variety of relationships (i.e. linear, non-linear, independence) between the 11 variables of the dataset (i.e. Cadmium, Mercury, Zinc, Copper, Titanium, Chromium, Vanadium and Nickel as well as the spatial coordinates of the measurement points and their depth). Then, exploratory spatial data analysis (i.e. anisotropic variography, local spatial correlations and moving window statistics) was carried out. It was shown that the different phenomena to be modeled were characterized by high spatial anisotropies, complex spatial correlation structures and heteroscedasticity. A feature selection procedure based on General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) was also applied to create subsets of variables enabling to improve the predictions during the modeling phase. The basic modeling was conducted using a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) which is a workhorse of ANN. MLP models are robust and highly flexible tools which can incorporate in a nonlinear manner different kind of high-dimensional information. In the present research, the input layer was made of either two (spatial coordinates) or three neurons (when depth as auxiliary information could possibly capture an underlying trend) and the output layer was composed of one (univariate MLP) to eight neurons corresponding to the heavy metals of the dataset (multivariate MLP). MLP models with three input neurons can be referred to as Artificial Neural Networks with EXternal

  9. Building on crossvalidation for increasing the quality of geostatistical modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Olea, R.A.

    2012-01-01

    The random function is a mathematical model commonly used in the assessment of uncertainty associated with a spatially correlated attribute that has been partially sampled. There are multiple algorithms for modeling such random functions, all sharing the requirement of specifying various parameters that have critical influence on the results. The importance of finding ways to compare the methods and setting parameters to obtain results that better model uncertainty has increased as these algorithms have grown in number and complexity. Crossvalidation has been used in spatial statistics, mostly in kriging, for the analysis of mean square errors. An appeal of this approach is its ability to work with the same empirical sample available for running the algorithms. This paper goes beyond checking estimates by formulating a function sensitive to conditional bias. Under ideal conditions, such function turns into a straight line, which can be used as a reference for preparing measures of performance. Applied to kriging, deviations from the ideal line provide sensitivity to the semivariogram lacking in crossvalidation of kriging errors and are more sensitive to conditional bias than analyses of errors. In terms of stochastic simulation, in addition to finding better parameters, the deviations allow comparison of the realizations resulting from the applications of different methods. Examples show improvements of about 30% in the deviations and approximately 10% in the square root of mean square errors between reasonable starting modelling and the solutions according to the new criteria. ?? 2011 US Government.

  10. Joint space-time geostatistical model for air quality surveillance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russo, A.; Soares, A.; Pereira, M. J.

    2009-04-01

    Air pollution and peoples' generalized concern about air quality are, nowadays, considered to be a global problem. Although the introduction of rigid air pollution regulations has reduced pollution from industry and power stations, the growing number of cars on the road poses a new pollution problem. Considering the characteristics of the atmospheric circulation and also the residence times of certain pollutants in the atmosphere, a generalized and growing interest on air quality issues led to research intensification and publication of several articles with quite different levels of scientific depth. As most natural phenomena, air quality can be seen as a space-time process, where space-time relationships have usually quite different characteristics and levels of uncertainty. As a result, the simultaneous integration of space and time is not an easy task to perform. This problem is overcome by a variety of methodologies. The use of stochastic models and neural networks to characterize space-time dispersion of air quality is becoming a common practice. The main objective of this work is to produce an air quality model which allows forecasting critical concentration episodes of a certain pollutant by means of a hybrid approach, based on the combined use of neural network models and stochastic simulations. A stochastic simulation of the spatial component with a space-time trend model is proposed to characterize critical situations, taking into account data from the past and a space-time trend from the recent past. To identify near future critical episodes, predicted values from neural networks are used at each monitoring station. In this paper, we describe the design of a hybrid forecasting tool for ambient NO2 concentrations in Lisbon, Portugal.

  11. Geostatistical regularization of inverse models for the retrieval of vegetation biophysical variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atzberger, C.; Richter, K.

    2009-09-01

    The robust and accurate retrieval of vegetation biophysical variables using radiative transfer models (RTM) is seriously hampered by the ill-posedness of the inverse problem. With this research we further develop our previously published (object-based) inversion approach [Atzberger (2004)]. The object-based RTM inversion takes advantage of the geostatistical fact that the biophysical characteristics of nearby pixel are generally more similar than those at a larger distance. A two-step inversion based on PROSPECT+SAIL generated look-up-tables is presented that can be easily implemented and adapted to other radiative transfer models. The approach takes into account the spectral signatures of neighboring pixel and optimizes a common value of the average leaf angle (ALA) for all pixel of a given image object, such as an agricultural field. Using a large set of leaf area index (LAI) measurements (n = 58) acquired over six different crops of the Barrax test site, Spain), we demonstrate that the proposed geostatistical regularization yields in most cases more accurate and spatially consistent results compared to the traditional (pixel-based) inversion. Pros and cons of the approach are discussed and possible future extensions presented.

  12. Local Geostatistical Models and Big Data in Hydrological and Ecological Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hristopulos, Dionissios

    2015-04-01

    The advent of the big data era creates new opportunities for environmental and ecological modelling but also presents significant challenges. The availability of remote sensing images and low-cost wireless sensor networks implies that spatiotemporal environmental data to cover larger spatial domains at higher spatial and temporal resolution for longer time windows. Handling such voluminous data presents several technical and scientific challenges. In particular, the geostatistical methods used to process spatiotemporal data need to overcome the dimensionality curse associated with the need to store and invert large covariance matrices. There are various mathematical approaches for addressing the dimensionality problem, including change of basis, dimensionality reduction, hierarchical schemes, and local approximations. We present a Stochastic Local Interaction (SLI) model that can be used to model local correlations in spatial data. SLI is a random field model suitable for data on discrete supports (i.e., regular lattices or irregular sampling grids). The degree of localization is determined by means of kernel functions and appropriate bandwidths. The strength of the correlations is determined by means of coefficients. In the "plain vanilla" version the parameter set involves scale and rigidity coefficients as well as a characteristic length. The latter determines in connection with the rigidity coefficient the correlation length of the random field. The SLI model is based on statistical field theory and extends previous research on Spartan spatial random fields [2,3] from continuum spaces to explicitly discrete supports. The SLI kernel functions employ adaptive bandwidths learned from the sampling spatial distribution [1]. The SLI precision matrix is expressed explicitly in terms of the model parameter and the kernel function. Hence, covariance matrix inversion is not necessary for parameter inference that is based on leave-one-out cross validation. This property

  13. Application of multiple-point geostatistics on modelling pumping tests and tracer tests in heterogeneous environments with complex geological structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huysmans, Marijke; Dassargues, Alain

    2014-05-01

    In heterogeneous environments with complex geological structures, analysis of pumping and tracer tests is often problematic. Standard interpretation methods do not account for heterogeneity or simulate this heterogeneity introducing empirical zonation of the calibrated parameters or using variogram-based geostatistical techniques that are often not able to describe realistic heterogeneity in complex geological environments where e.g. sedimentary structures, multi-facies deposits, structures with large connectivity or curvi-linear structures can be present. Multiple-point geostatistics aims to overcome the limitations of the variogram and can be applied in different research domains to simulate heterogeneity in complex environments. In this project, multiple-point geostatistics is applied to the interpretation of pumping tests and a tracer test in an actual case of a sandy heterogeneous aquifer. This study allows to deduce the main advantages and disadvantages of this technique compared to variogram-based techniques for interpretation of pumping tests and tracer tests. A pumping test and a tracer test were performed in the same sandbar deposit consisting of cross-bedded units composed of materials with different grain sizes and hydraulic conductivities. The pumping test and the tracer test are analyzed with a local 3D groundwater model in which fine-scale sedimentary heterogeneity is modelled using multiple-point geostatistics. To reduce CPU and RAM requirements of the multiple-point geostatistical simulation steps, edge properties indicating the presence of irregularly-shaped surfaces are directly simulated. Results show that for the pumping test as well as for the tracer test, incorporating heterogeneity results in a better fit between observed and calculated drawdowns/concentrations. The improvement of the fit is however not as large as expected. In this paper, the reasons for these somewhat unsatisfactory results are explored and recommendations for future

  14. Geostatistical upscaling of rain gauge data to support uncertainty analysis of lumped urban hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muthusamy, Manoranjan; Schellart, Alma; Tait, Simon; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.

    2017-02-01

    In this study we develop a method to estimate the spatially averaged rainfall intensity together with associated level of uncertainty using geostatistical upscaling. Rainfall data collected from a cluster of eight paired rain gauges in a 400 m × 200 m urban catchment are used in combination with spatial stochastic simulation to obtain optimal predictions of the spatially averaged rainfall intensity at any point in time within the urban catchment. The uncertainty in the prediction of catchment average rainfall intensity is obtained for multiple combinations of intensity ranges and temporal averaging intervals. The two main challenges addressed in this study are scarcity of rainfall measurement locations and non-normality of rainfall data, both of which need to be considered when adopting a geostatistical approach. Scarcity of measurement points is dealt with by pooling sample variograms of repeated rainfall measurements with similar characteristics. Normality of rainfall data is achieved through the use of normal score transformation. Geostatistical models in the form of variograms are derived for transformed rainfall intensity. Next spatial stochastic simulation which is robust to nonlinear data transformation is applied to produce realisations of rainfall fields. These realisations in transformed space are first back-transformed and next spatially aggregated to derive a random sample of the spatially averaged rainfall intensity. Results show that the prediction uncertainty comes mainly from two sources: spatial variability of rainfall and measurement error. At smaller temporal averaging intervals both these effects are high, resulting in a relatively high uncertainty in prediction. With longer temporal averaging intervals the uncertainty becomes lower due to stronger spatial correlation of rainfall data and relatively smaller measurement error. Results also show that the measurement error increases with decreasing rainfall intensity resulting in a higher

  15. Geostatistical three-dimensional modeling of oolite shoals, St. Louis Limestone, southwest Kansas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Qi, L.; Carr, T.R.; Goldstein, R.H.

    2007-01-01

    In the Hugoton embayment of southwestern Kansas, reservoirs composed of relatively thin (<4 m; <13.1 ft) oolitic deposits within the St. Louis Limestone have produced more than 300 million bbl of oil. The geometry and distribution of oolitic deposits control the heterogeneity of the reservoirs, resulting in exploration challenges and relatively low recovery. Geostatistical three-dimensional (3-D) models were constructed to quantify the geometry and spatial distribution of oolitic reservoirs, and the continuity of flow units within Big Bow and Sand Arroyo Creek fields. Lithofacies in uncored wells were predicted from digital logs using a neural network. The tilting effect from the Laramide orogeny was removed to construct restored structural surfaces at the time of deposition. Well data and structural maps were integrated to build 3-D models of oolitic reservoirs using stochastic simulations with geometry data. Three-dimensional models provide insights into the distribution, the external and internal geometry of oolitic deposits, and the sedimentologic processes that generated reservoir intervals. The structural highs and general structural trend had a significant impact on the distribution and orientation of the oolitic complexes. The depositional pattern and connectivity analysis suggest an overall aggradation of shallow-marine deposits during pulses of relative sea level rise followed by deepening near the top of the St. Louis Limestone. Cemented oolitic deposits were modeled as barriers and baffles and tend to concentrate at the edge of oolitic complexes. Spatial distribution of porous oolitic deposits controls the internal geometry of rock properties. Integrated geostatistical modeling methods can be applicable to other complex carbonate or siliciclastic reservoirs in shallow-marine settings. Copyright ?? 2007. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

  16. Enhancing multiple-point geostatistical modeling: 1. Graph theory and pattern adjustment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tahmasebi, Pejman; Sahimi, Muhammad

    2016-03-01

    In recent years, higher-order geostatistical methods have been used for modeling of a wide variety of large-scale porous media, such as groundwater aquifers and oil reservoirs. Their popularity stems from their ability to account for qualitative data and the great flexibility that they offer for conditioning the models to hard (quantitative) data, which endow them with the capability for generating realistic realizations of porous formations with very complex channels, as well as features that are mainly a barrier to fluid flow. One group of such models consists of pattern-based methods that use a set of data points for generating stochastic realizations by which the large-scale structure and highly-connected features are reproduced accurately. The cross correlation-based simulation (CCSIM) algorithm, proposed previously by the authors, is a member of this group that has been shown to be capable of simulating multimillion cell models in a matter of a few CPU seconds. The method is, however, sensitive to pattern's specifications, such as boundaries and the number of replicates. In this paper the original CCSIM algorithm is reconsidered and two significant improvements are proposed for accurately reproducing large-scale patterns of heterogeneities in porous media. First, an effective boundary-correction method based on the graph theory is presented by which one identifies the optimal cutting path/surface for removing the patchiness and discontinuities in the realization of a porous medium. Next, a new pattern adjustment method is proposed that automatically transfers the features in a pattern to one that seamlessly matches the surrounding patterns. The original CCSIM algorithm is then combined with the two methods and is tested using various complex two- and three-dimensional examples. It should, however, be emphasized that the methods that we propose in this paper are applicable to other pattern-based geostatistical simulation methods.

  17. Model-Based Geostatistical Mapping of the Prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in West Africa

    PubMed Central

    O’Hanlon, Simon J.; Slater, Hannah C.; Cheke, Robert A.; Boatin, Boakye A.; Coffeng, Luc E.; Pion, Sébastien D. S.; Boussinesq, Michel; Zouré, Honorat G. M.; Stolk, Wilma A.; Basáñez, María-Gloria

    2016-01-01

    Background The initial endemicity (pre-control prevalence) of onchocerciasis has been shown to be an important determinant of the feasibility of elimination by mass ivermectin distribution. We present the first geostatistical map of microfilarial prevalence in the former Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) before commencement of antivectorial and antiparasitic interventions. Methods and Findings Pre-control microfilarial prevalence data from 737 villages across the 11 constituent countries in the OCP epidemiological database were used as ground-truth data. These 737 data points, plus a set of statistically selected environmental covariates, were used in a Bayesian model-based geostatistical (B-MBG) approach to generate a continuous surface (at pixel resolution of 5 km x 5km) of microfilarial prevalence in West Africa prior to the commencement of the OCP. Uncertainty in model predictions was measured using a suite of validation statistics, performed on bootstrap samples of held-out validation data. The mean Pearson’s correlation between observed and estimated prevalence at validation locations was 0.693; the mean prediction error (average difference between observed and estimated values) was 0.77%, and the mean absolute prediction error (average magnitude of difference between observed and estimated values) was 12.2%. Within OCP boundaries, 17.8 million people were deemed to have been at risk, 7.55 million to have been infected, and mean microfilarial prevalence to have been 45% (range: 2–90%) in 1975. Conclusions and Significance This is the first map of initial onchocerciasis prevalence in West Africa using B-MBG. Important environmental predictors of infection prevalence were identified and used in a model out-performing those without spatial random effects or environmental covariates. Results may be compared with recent epidemiological mapping efforts to find areas of persisting transmission. These methods may be extended to areas where

  18. Geostatistical modeling of a portion of the alluvial aquifer of Mexico City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morales-Casique, E.; Medina-Ortega, P.; Escolero-Fuentes, O.; Hernandez Espriu, A.

    2012-12-01

    Mexico City is one of the largest cities in the world and the pressure exerted on water resources generates problems such as intensive groundwater exploitation, subsidence and groundwater pollution. Most of the main aquifer under exploitation underlies lacustrine sediments and it is composed of a highly heterogeneous mixture of alluvial deposits and volcanic rocks. Lithological records from 113 production water wells are analyzed using indicator geostatistics. The different lithological categories are grouped into four hydrofacies, where a hydrofacies is a set of lithological categories which have similar hydraulic properties. An exponential variogram model was fitted to each hydrofacies by minimizing cross validation errors. The data is then kriged to obtain the three-dimensional distribution of each hydrofacies within the alluvial aquifer of Mexico City.

  19. Forward modeling of gravity data using geostatistically generated subsurface density variations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Phelps, Geoffrey

    2016-01-01

    Using geostatistical models of density variations in the subsurface, constrained by geologic data, forward models of gravity anomalies can be generated by discretizing the subsurface and calculating the cumulative effect of each cell (pixel). The results of such stochastically generated forward gravity anomalies can be compared with the observed gravity anomalies to find density models that match the observed data. These models have an advantage over forward gravity anomalies generated using polygonal bodies of homogeneous density because generating numerous realizations explores a larger region of the solution space. The stochastic modeling can be thought of as dividing the forward model into two components: that due to the shape of each geologic unit and that due to the heterogeneous distribution of density within each geologic unit. The modeling demonstrates that the internally heterogeneous distribution of density within each geologic unit can contribute significantly to the resulting calculated forward gravity anomaly. Furthermore, the stochastic models match observed statistical properties of geologic units, the solution space is more broadly explored by producing a suite of successful models, and the likelihood of a particular conceptual geologic model can be compared. The Vaca Fault near Travis Air Force Base, California, can be successfully modeled as a normal or strike-slip fault, with the normal fault model being slightly more probable. It can also be modeled as a reverse fault, although this structural geologic configuration is highly unlikely given the realizations we explored.

  20. Geostatistical Modeling of Uncertainty Attached to the Spatial Distribution of Arsenic in Groundwater of Southeast Michigan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goovaerts, P.; Avruskin, G.; Meliker, J.; Slotnick, M.; Jacquez, G.; Nriagu, J.

    2003-12-01

    Assessment of the health risks associated with exposure to elevated levels of arsenic in drinking water has become the subject of considerable interest and some controversy in both regulatory and public health communities. The objective of this research is to explore the factors that have contributed to the observed geographic co-clustering in bladder cancer mortality and arsenic concentrations in drinking water in Michigan. A corner stone is the building of a probabilistic space-time model of arsenic concentrations, accounting for information collected at private residential wells and the hydrogeochemistry of the area. Because of the small changes in concentration observed in time, the study has focused on the spatial variability of arsenic, which can be considerable over very short distances. Various geostatistical techniques, based either on lognormal or indicator transforms of the data to accommodate the highly skewed distribution, have been compared using a cross validation procedure. The most promising approach involves a soft indicator coding of arsenic measurements, which allows one to account for data below the detection limit and the magnitude of measurement errors. Prior probabilities of exceeding various arsenic thresholds are also derived from secondary information, such as type of bedrock and surficial material, well casing depth, using logistic regression. Both well and secondary data are combined using kriging, leading to a non-parametric assessment of the uncertainty attached to arsenic concentration at each node of a 500m grid. This geostatistical model can be used to map either the expected arsenic concentration, the probability that it exceeds any giventhreshold, or the variance of the prediction indicating where supplementary information should be collected. The accuracy and precision of these local probability distributions is assessed using cross validation.

  1. Inverse modeling of hydraulic tests in fractured crystalline rock based on a transition probability geostatistical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blessent, Daniela; Therrien, René; Lemieux, Jean-Michel

    2011-12-01

    This paper presents numerical simulations of a series of hydraulic interference tests conducted in crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto (Finland), a potential site for the disposal of the Finnish high-level nuclear waste. The tests are in a block of crystalline bedrock of about 0.03 km3 that contains low-transmissivity fractures. Fracture density, orientation, and fracture transmissivity are estimated from Posiva Flow Log (PFL) measurements in boreholes drilled in the rock block. On the basis of those data, a geostatistical approach relying on a transitional probability and Markov chain models is used to define a conceptual model based on stochastic fractured rock facies. Four facies are defined, from sparsely fractured bedrock to highly fractured bedrock. Using this conceptual model, three-dimensional groundwater flow is then simulated to reproduce interference pumping tests in either open or packed-off boreholes. Hydraulic conductivities of the fracture facies are estimated through automatic calibration using either hydraulic heads or both hydraulic heads and PFL flow rates as targets for calibration. The latter option produces a narrower confidence interval for the calibrated hydraulic conductivities, therefore reducing the associated uncertainty and demonstrating the usefulness of the measured PFL flow rates. Furthermore, the stochastic facies conceptual model is a suitable alternative to discrete fracture network models to simulate fluid flow in fractured geological media.

  2. A Novel Approach of Understanding and Incorporating Error of Chemical Transport Models into a Geostatistical Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reyes, J.; Vizuete, W.; Serre, M. L.; Xu, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The EPA employs a vast monitoring network to measure ambient PM2.5 concentrations across the United States with one of its goals being to quantify exposure within the population. However, there are several areas of the country with sparse monitoring spatially and temporally. One means to fill in these monitoring gaps is to use PM2.5 modeled estimates from Chemical Transport Models (CTMs) specifically the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. CMAQ is able to provide complete spatial coverage but is subject to systematic and random error due to model uncertainty. Due to the deterministic nature of CMAQ, often these uncertainties are not quantified. Much effort is employed to quantify the efficacy of these models through different metrics of model performance. Currently evaluation is specific to only locations with observed data. Multiyear studies across the United States are challenging because the error and model performance of CMAQ are not uniform over such large space/time domains. Error changes regionally and temporally. Because of the complex mix of species that constitute PM2.5, CMAQ error is also a function of increasing PM2.5 concentration. To address this issue we introduce a model performance evaluation for PM2.5 CMAQ that is regionalized and non-linear. This model performance evaluation leads to error quantification for each CMAQ grid. Areas and time periods of error being better qualified. The regionalized error correction approach is non-linear and is therefore more flexible at characterizing model performance than approaches that rely on linearity assumptions and assume homoscedasticity of CMAQ predictions errors. Corrected CMAQ data are then incorporated into the modern geostatistical framework of Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME). Through cross validation it is shown that incorporating error-corrected CMAQ data leads to more accurate estimates than just using observed data by themselves.

  3. Indoor terrestrial gamma dose rate mapping in France: a case study using two different geostatistical models.

    PubMed

    Warnery, E; Ielsch, G; Lajaunie, C; Cale, E; Wackernagel, H; Debayle, C; Guillevic, J

    2015-01-01

    information, which is exhaustive throughout France, could help in estimating the telluric gamma dose rates. Such an approach is possible using multivariate geostatistics and cokriging. Multi-collocated cokriging has been performed on 1*1 km(2) cells over the domain. This model used gamma dose rate measurement results and GUP classes. Our results provide useful information on the variability of the natural terrestrial gamma radiation in France ('natural background') and exposure data for epidemiological studies and risk assessment from low dose chronic exposures.

  4. The applications of model-based geostatistics in helminth epidemiology and control.

    PubMed

    Magalhães, Ricardo J Soares; Clements, Archie C A; Patil, Anand P; Gething, Peter W; Brooker, Simon

    2011-01-01

    Funding agencies are dedicating substantial resources to tackle helminth infections. Reliable maps of the distribution of helminth infection can assist these efforts by targeting control resources to areas of greatest need. The ability to define the distribution of infection at regional, national and subnational levels has been enhanced greatly by the increased availability of good quality survey data and the use of model-based geostatistics (MBG), enabling spatial prediction in unsampled locations. A major advantage of MBG risk mapping approaches is that they provide a flexible statistical platform for handling and representing different sources of uncertainty, providing plausible and robust information on the spatial distribution of infections to inform the design and implementation of control programmes. Focussing on schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis, with additional examples for lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis, we review the progress made to date with the application of MBG tools in large-scale, real-world control programmes and propose a general framework for their application to inform integrative spatial planning of helminth disease control programmes.

  5. Error modeling based on geostatistics for uncertainty analysis in crop mapping using Gaofen-1 multispectral imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    You, Jiong; Pei, Zhiyuan

    2015-01-01

    With the development of remote sensing technology, its applications in agriculture monitoring systems, crop mapping accuracy, and spatial distribution are more and more being explored by administrators and users. Uncertainty in crop mapping is profoundly affected by the spatial pattern of spectral reflectance values obtained from the applied remote sensing data. Errors in remotely sensed crop cover information and the propagation in derivative products need to be quantified and handled correctly. Therefore, this study discusses the methods of error modeling for uncertainty characterization in crop mapping using GF-1 multispectral imagery. An error modeling framework based on geostatistics is proposed, which introduced the sequential Gaussian simulation algorithm to explore the relationship between classification errors and the spectral signature from remote sensing data source. On this basis, a misclassification probability model to produce a spatially explicit classification error probability surface for the map of a crop is developed, which realizes the uncertainty characterization for crop mapping. In this process, trend surface analysis was carried out to generate a spatially varying mean response and the corresponding residual response with spatial variation for the spectral bands of GF-1 multispectral imagery. Variogram models were employed to measure the spatial dependence in the spectral bands and the derived misclassification probability surfaces. Simulated spectral data and classification results were quantitatively analyzed. Through experiments using data sets from a region in the low rolling country located at the Yangtze River valley, it was found that GF-1 multispectral imagery can be used for crop mapping with a good overall performance, the proposal error modeling framework can be used to quantify the uncertainty in crop mapping, and the misclassification probability model can summarize the spatial variation in map accuracy and is helpful for

  6. A PRELIMINARY JUPITER MODEL

    SciTech Connect

    Hubbard, W. B.; Militzer, B.

    2016-03-20

    In anticipation of new observational results for Jupiter's axial moment of inertia and gravitational zonal harmonic coefficients from the forthcoming Juno orbiter, we present a number of preliminary Jupiter interior models. We combine results from ab initio computer simulations of hydrogen–helium mixtures, including immiscibility calculations, with a new nonperturbative calculation of Jupiter's zonal harmonic coefficients, to derive a self-consistent model for the planet's external gravity and moment of inertia. We assume helium rain modified the interior temperature and composition profiles. Our calculation predicts zonal harmonic values to which measurements can be compared. Although some models fit the observed (pre-Juno) second- and fourth-order zonal harmonics to within their error bars, our preferred reference model predicts a fourth-order zonal harmonic whose absolute value lies above the pre-Juno error bars. This model has a dense core of about 12 Earth masses and a hydrogen–helium-rich envelope with approximately three times solar metallicity.

  7. A new approach to upscaling fracture network models while preserving geostatistical and geomechanical characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, Qinghua; Latham, John-Paul; Tsang, Chin-Fu; Xiang, Jiansheng; Lang, Philipp

    2015-07-01

    A new approach to upscaling two-dimensional fracture network models is proposed for preserving geostatistical and geomechanical characteristics of a smaller-scale "source" fracture pattern. First, the scaling properties of an outcrop system are examined in terms of spatial organization, lengths, connectivity, and normal/shear displacements using fractal geometry and power law relations. The fracture pattern is observed to be nonfractal with the fractal dimension D ≈ 2, while its length distribution tends to follow a power law with the exponent 2 < a < 3. To introduce a realistic distribution of fracture aperture and shear displacement, a geomechanical model using the combined finite-discrete element method captures the response of a fractured rock sample with a domain size L = 2 m under in situ stresses. Next, a novel scheme accommodating discrete-time random walks in recursive self-referencing lattices is developed to nucleate and propagate fractures together with their stress- and scale-dependent attributes into larger domains of up to 54 m × 54 m. The advantages of this approach include preserving the nonplanarity of natural cracks, capturing the existence of long fractures, retaining the realism of variable apertures, and respecting the stress dependency of displacement-length correlations. Hydraulic behavior of multiscale growth realizations is modeled by single-phase flow simulation, where distinct permeability scaling trends are observed for different geomechanical scenarios. A transition zone is identified where flow structure shifts from extremely channeled to distributed as the network scale increases. The results of this paper have implications for upscaling network characteristics for reservoir simulation.

  8. UNCERT: geostatistics, uncertainty analysis and visualization software applied to groundwater flow and contaminant transport modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wingle, William L.; Poeter, Eileen P.; McKenna, Sean A.

    1999-05-01

    UNCERT is a 2D and 3D geostatistics, uncertainty analysis and visualization software package applied to ground water flow and contaminant transport modeling. It is a collection of modules that provides tools for linear regression, univariate statistics, semivariogram analysis, inverse-distance gridding, trend-surface analysis, simple and ordinary kriging and discrete conditional indicator simulation. Graphical user interfaces for MODFLOW and MT3D, ground water flow and contaminant transport models, are provided for streamlined data input and result analysis. Visualization tools are included for displaying data input and output. These include, but are not limited to, 2D and 3D scatter plots, histograms, box and whisker plots, 2D contour maps, surface renderings of 2D gridded data and 3D views of gridded data. By design, UNCERT's graphical user interface and visualization tools facilitate model design and analysis. There are few built in restrictions on data set sizes and each module (with two exceptions) can be run in either graphical or batch mode. UNCERT is in the public domain and is available from the World Wide Web with complete on-line and printable (PDF) documentation. UNCERT is written in ANSI-C with a small amount of FORTRAN77, for UNIX workstations running X-Windows and Motif (or Lesstif). This article discusses the features of each module and demonstrates how they can be used individually and in combination. The tools are applicable to a wide range of fields and are currently used by researchers in the ground water, mining, mathematics, chemistry and geophysics, to name a few disciplines.

  9. Estimating the Burden of Malaria in Senegal: Bayesian Zero-Inflated Binomial Geostatistical Modeling of the MIS 2008 Data

    PubMed Central

    Giardina, Federica; Gosoniu, Laura; Konate, Lassana; Diouf, Mame Birame; Perry, Robert; Gaye, Oumar; Faye, Ousmane; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2012-01-01

    The Research Center for Human Development in Dakar (CRDH) with the technical assistance of ICF Macro and the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) conducted in 2008/2009 the Senegal Malaria Indicator Survey (SMIS), the first nationally representative household survey collecting parasitological data and malaria-related indicators. In this paper, we present spatially explicit parasitaemia risk estimates and number of infected children below 5 years. Geostatistical Zero-Inflated Binomial models (ZIB) were developed to take into account the large number of zero-prevalence survey locations (70%) in the data. Bayesian variable selection methods were incorporated within a geostatistical framework in order to choose the best set of environmental and climatic covariates associated with the parasitaemia risk. Model validation confirmed that the ZIB model had a better predictive ability than the standard Binomial analogue. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods were used for inference. Several insecticide treated nets (ITN) coverage indicators were calculated to assess the effectiveness of interventions. After adjusting for climatic and socio-economic factors, the presence of at least one ITN per every two household members and living in urban areas reduced the odds of parasitaemia by 86% and 81% respectively. Posterior estimates of the ORs related to the wealth index show a decreasing trend with the quintiles. Infection odds appear to be increasing with age. The population-adjusted prevalence ranges from 0.12% in Thillé-Boubacar to 13.1% in Dabo. Tambacounda has the highest population-adjusted predicted prevalence (8.08%) whereas the region with the highest estimated number of infected children under the age of 5 years is Kolda (13940). The contemporary map and estimates of malaria burden identify the priority areas for future control interventions and provide baseline information for monitoring and evaluation. Zero-Inflated formulations are more appropriate in

  10. Analysis of vadose zone tritium transport from an underground storage tank release using numerical modeling and geostatistics

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, K.H.

    1997-09-01

    Numerical and geostatistical analyses show that the artificial smoothing effect of kriging removes high permeability flow paths from hydrogeologic data sets, reducing simulated contaminant transport rates in heterogeneous vadose zone systems. therefore, kriging alone is not recommended for estimating the spatial distribution of soil hydraulic properties for contaminant transport analysis at vadose zone sites. Vadose zone transport if modeled more effectively by combining kriging with stochastic simulation to better represent the high degree of spatial variability usually found in the hydraulic properties of field soils. However, kriging is a viable technique for estimating the initial mass distribution of contaminants in the subsurface.

  11. Geostatistical simulations for radon indoor with a nested model including the housing factor.

    PubMed

    Cafaro, C; Giovani, C; Garavaglia, M

    2016-01-01

    The radon prone areas definition is matter of many researches in radioecology, since radon is considered a leading cause of lung tumours, therefore the authorities ask for support to develop an appropriate sanitary prevention strategy. In this paper, we use geostatistical tools to elaborate a definition accounting for some of the available information about the dwellings. Co-kriging is the proper interpolator used in geostatistics to refine the predictions by using external covariates. In advance, co-kriging is not guaranteed to improve significantly the results obtained by applying the common lognormal kriging. Here, instead, such multivariate approach leads to reduce the cross-validation residual variance to an extent which is deemed as satisfying. Furthermore, with the application of Monte Carlo simulations, the paradigm provides a more conservative radon prone areas definition than the one previously made by lognormal kriging.

  12. Assimilation of Satellite Soil Moisture observation with the Particle Filter-Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Geostatistical Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moradkhani, Hamid; Yan, Hongxiang

    2016-04-01

    Soil moisture simulation and prediction are increasingly used to characterize agricultural droughts but the process suffers from data scarcity and quality. The satellite soil moisture observations could be used to improve model predictions with data assimilation. Remote sensing products, however, are typically discontinuous in spatial-temporal coverages; while simulated soil moisture products are potentially biased due to the errors in forcing data, parameters, and deficiencies of model physics. This study attempts to provide a detailed analysis of the joint and separate assimilation of streamflow and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) surface soil moisture into a fully distributed hydrologic model, with the use of recently developed particle filter-Markov chain Monte Carlo (PF-MCMC) method. A geostatistical model is introduced to overcome the satellite soil moisture discontinuity issue where satellite data does not cover the whole study region or is significantly biased, and the dominant land cover is dense vegetation. The results indicate that joint assimilation of soil moisture and streamflow has minimal effect in improving the streamflow prediction, however, the surface soil moisture field is significantly improved. The combination of DA and geostatistical approach can further improve the surface soil moisture prediction.

  13. Geostatistics and petroleum geology

    SciTech Connect

    Hohn, M.E.

    1988-01-01

    This book examines purpose and use of geostatistics in exploration and development of oil and gas with an emphasis on appropriate and pertinent case studies. It present an overview of geostatistics. Topics covered include: The semivariogram; Linear estimation; Multivariate geostatistics; Nonlinear estimation; From indicator variables to nonparametric estimation; and More detail, less certainty; conditional simulation.

  14. Geostatistical modelling of soil-transmitted helminth infection in Cambodia: do socioeconomic factors improve predictions?

    PubMed

    Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios; Odermatt, Peter; Biedermann, Patricia; Khieu, Virak; Schär, Fabian; Muth, Sinuon; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2015-01-01

    Soil-transmitted helminth infections are intimately connected with poverty. Yet, there is a paucity of using socioeconomic proxies in spatially explicit risk profiling. We compiled household-level socioeconomic data pertaining to sanitation, drinking-water, education and nutrition from readily available Demographic and Health Surveys, Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and World Health Surveys for Cambodia and aggregated the data at village level. We conducted a systematic review to identify parasitological surveys and made every effort possible to extract, georeference and upload the data in the open source Global Neglected Tropical Diseases database. Bayesian geostatistical models were employed to spatially align the village-aggregated socioeconomic predictors with the soil-transmitted helminth infection data. The risk of soil-transmitted helminth infection was predicted at a grid of 1×1km covering Cambodia. Additionally, two separate individual-level spatial analyses were carried out, for Takeo and Preah Vihear provinces, to assess and quantify the association between soil-transmitted helminth infection and socioeconomic indicators at an individual level. Overall, we obtained socioeconomic proxies from 1624 locations across the country. Surveys focussing on soil-transmitted helminth infections were extracted from 16 sources reporting data from 238 unique locations. We found that the risk of soil-transmitted helminth infection from 2000 onwards was considerably lower than in surveys conducted earlier. Population-adjusted prevalences for school-aged children from 2000 onwards were 28.7% for hookworm, 1.5% for Ascaris lumbricoides and 0.9% for Trichuris trichiura. Surprisingly, at the country-wide analyses, we did not find any significant association between soil-transmitted helminth infection and village-aggregated socioeconomic proxies. Based also on the individual-level analyses we conclude that socioeconomic proxies might not be good predictors at an

  15. Preliminary reference Earth model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dziewonski, Adam M.; Anderson, Don L.

    1981-06-01

    A large data set consisting of about 1000 normal mode periods, 500 summary travel time observations, 100 normal mode Q values, mass and moment of inertia have been inverted to obtain the radial distribution of elastic properties, Q values and density in the Earth's interior. The data set was supplemented with a special study of 12 years of ISC phase data which yielded an additional 1.75 × 10 6 travel time observations for P and S waves. In order to obtain satisfactory agreement with the entire data set we were required to take into account anelastic dispersion. The introduction of transverse isotropy into the outer 220 km of the mantle was required in order to satisfy the shorter period fundamental toroidal and spheroidal modes. This anisotropy also improved the fit of the larger data set. The horizontal and vertical velocities in the upper mantle differ by 2-4%, both for P and S waves. The mantle below 220 km is not required to be anisotropic. Mantle Rayleigh waves are surprisingly sensitive to compressional velocity in the upper mantle. High S n velocities, low P n velocities and a pronounced low-velocity zone are features of most global inversion models that are suppressed when anisotropy is allowed for in the inversion. The Preliminary Reference Earth Model, PREM, and auxiliary tables showing fits to the data are presented.

  16. A Practical Primer on Geostatistics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Olea, Ricardo A.

    2009-01-01

    THE CHALLENGE Most geological phenomena are extraordinarily complex in their interrelationships and vast in their geographical extension. Ordinarily, engineers and geoscientists are faced with corporate or scientific requirements to properly prepare geological models with measurements involving a small fraction of the entire area or volume of interest. Exact description of a system such as an oil reservoir is neither feasible nor economically possible. The results are necessarily uncertain. Note that the uncertainty is not an intrinsic property of the systems; it is the result of incomplete knowledge by the observer. THE AIM OF GEOSTATISTICS The main objective of geostatistics is the characterization of spatial systems that are incompletely known, systems that are common in geology. A key difference from classical statistics is that geostatistics uses the sampling location of every measurement. Unless the measurements show spatial correlation, the application of geostatistics is pointless. Ordinarily the need for additional knowledge goes beyond a few points, which explains the display of results graphically as fishnet plots, block diagrams, and maps. GEOSTATISTICAL METHODS Geostatistics is a collection of numerical techniques for the characterization of spatial attributes using primarily two tools: probabilistic models, which are used for spatial data in a manner similar to the way in which time-series analysis characterizes temporal data, or pattern recognition techniques. The probabilistic models are used as a way to handle uncertainty in results away from sampling locations, making a radical departure from alternative approaches like inverse distance estimation methods. DIFFERENCES WITH TIME SERIES On dealing with time-series analysis, users frequently concentrate their attention on extrapolations for making forecasts. Although users of geostatistics may be interested in extrapolation, the methods work at their best interpolating. This simple difference has

  17. Coupling geostatistical approaches with PCA and fuzzy optimal model (FOM) for the integrated assessment of sampling locations of water quality monitoring networks (WQMNs).

    PubMed

    Ou, Chunping; St-Hilaire, André; Ouarda, Taha B M J; Conly, F Malcolm; Armstrong, Nicole; Khalil, Bahaa; Proulx-McInnis, Sandra

    2012-12-01

    The assessment of the adequacy of sampling locations is an important aspect in the validation of an effective and efficient water quality monitoring network. Two geostatistical approaches (e.g., kriging and Moran's I) are presented to assess multiple sampling locations. A flexible and comprehensive framework was developed for the selection of multiple sampling locations of multiple variables which was accomplished by coupling geostatistical approaches with principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy optimal model (FOM). The FOM was used in the integrated assessment of both multiple principal components and multiple geostatistical approaches. These integrated methods were successfully applied to the assessment of two independent water quality monitoring networks (WQMNs) of Lake Winnipeg, Canada, which respectively included 14 and 30 stations from 2006 to 2010.

  18. GIS, geostatistics, metadata banking, and tree-based models for data analysis and mapping in environmental monitoring and epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Schröder, Winfried

    2006-05-01

    By the example of environmental monitoring, some applications of geographic information systems (GIS), geostatistics, metadata banking, and Classification and Regression Trees (CART) are presented. These tools are recommended for mapping statistically estimated hot spots of vectors and pathogens. GIS were introduced as tools for spatially modelling the real world. The modelling can be done by mapping objects according to the spatial information content of data. Additionally, this can be supported by geostatistical and multivariate statistical modelling. This is demonstrated by the example of modelling marine habitats of benthic communities and of terrestrial ecoregions. Such ecoregionalisations may be used to predict phenomena based on the statistical relation between measurements of an interesting phenomenon such as, e.g., the incidence of medically relevant species and correlated characteristics of the ecoregions. The combination of meteorological data and data on plant phenology can enhance the spatial resolution of the information on climate change. To this end, meteorological and phenological data have to be correlated. To enable this, both data sets which are from disparate monitoring networks have to be spatially connected by means of geostatistical estimation. This is demonstrated by the example of transformation of site-specific data on plant phenology into surface data. The analysis allows for spatial comparison of the phenology during the two periods 1961-1990 and 1991-2002 covering whole Germany. The changes in both plant phenology and air temperature were proved to be statistically significant. Thus, they can be combined by GIS overlay technique to enhance the spatial resolution of the information on the climate change and use them for the prediction of vector incidences at the regional scale. The localisation of such risk hot spots can be done by geometrically merging surface data on promoting factors. This is demonstrated by the example of the

  19. The distribution of arsenic in shallow alluvial groundwater under agricultural land in central Portugal: insights from multivariate geostatistical modeling.

    PubMed

    Andrade, A I A S S; Stigter, T Y

    2013-04-01

    In this study multivariate and geostatistical methods are jointly applied to model the spatial and temporal distribution of arsenic (As) concentrations in shallow groundwater as a function of physicochemical, hydrogeological and land use parameters, as well as to assess the related uncertainty. The study site is located in the Mondego River alluvial body in Central Portugal, where maize, rice and some vegetable crops dominate. In a first analysis scatter plots are used, followed by the application of principal component analysis to two different data matrices, of 112 and 200 samples, with the aim of detecting associations between As levels and other quantitative parameters. In the following phase explanatory models of As are created through factorial regression based on correspondence analysis, integrating both quantitative and qualitative parameters. Finally, these are combined with indicator-geostatistical techniques to create maps indicating the predicted probability of As concentrations in groundwater exceeding the current global drinking water guideline of 10 μg/l. These maps further allow assessing the uncertainty and representativeness of the monitoring network. A clear effect of the redox state on the presence of As is observed, and together with significant correlations with dissolved oxygen, nitrate, sulfate, iron, manganese and alkalinity, points towards the reductive dissolution of Fe (hydr)oxides as the essential mechanism of As release. The association of high As values with rice crop, known to promote reduced environments due to ponding, further corroborates this hypothesis. An additional source of As from fertilizers cannot be excluded, as the correlation with As is higher where rice is associated with vegetables, normally associated with higher fertilization rates. The best explanatory model of As occurrence integrates the parameters season, crop type, well and water depth, nitrate and Eh, though a model without the last two parameters also gives

  20. Implementation of the Iterative Proportion Fitting Algorithm for Geostatistical Facies Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Li Yupeng Deutsch, Clayton V.

    2012-06-15

    In geostatistics, most stochastic algorithm for simulation of categorical variables such as facies or rock types require a conditional probability distribution. The multivariate probability distribution of all the grouped locations including the unsampled location permits calculation of the conditional probability directly based on its definition. In this article, the iterative proportion fitting (IPF) algorithm is implemented to infer this multivariate probability. Using the IPF algorithm, the multivariate probability is obtained by iterative modification to an initial estimated multivariate probability using lower order bivariate probabilities as constraints. The imposed bivariate marginal probabilities are inferred from profiles along drill holes or wells. In the IPF process, a sparse matrix is used to calculate the marginal probabilities from the multivariate probability, which makes the iterative fitting more tractable and practical. This algorithm can be extended to higher order marginal probability constraints as used in multiple point statistics. The theoretical framework is developed and illustrated with estimation and simulation example.

  1. Application of geostatistics to risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Thayer, William C; Griffith, Daniel A; Goodrum, Philip E; Diamond, Gary L; Hassett, James M

    2003-10-01

    Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.

  2. Reservoir studies with geostatistics to forecast performance

    SciTech Connect

    Tang, R.W.; Behrens, R.A.; Emanuel, A.S. )

    1991-05-01

    In this paper example geostatistics and streamtube applications are presented for waterflood and CO{sub 2} flood in two low-permeability sandstone reservoirs. Thy hybrid approach of combining fine vertical resolution in cross-sectional models with streamtubes resulted in models that showed water channeling and provided realistic performance estimates. Results indicate that the combination of detailed geostatistical cross sections and fine-grid streamtube models offers a systematic approach for realistic performance forecasts.

  3. Geostatistics and petroleum geology

    SciTech Connect

    Hohn, M.E.

    1988-01-01

    The book reviewed is designed as a practical guide to geostatistics or kriging for the petroleum geologists. The author's aim in the book is to explain geostatistics as a working tool for petroleum geologists through extensive use of case-study material mostly drawn from his own research in gas potential evaluation in West Virginia. Theory and mathematics are pared down to immediate needs.

  4. Field-scale soil moisture space-time geostatistical modeling for complex Palouse landscapes in the inland Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chahal, M. K.; Brown, D. J.; Brooks, E. S.; Campbell, C.; Cobos, D. R.; Vierling, L. A.

    2012-12-01

    Estimating soil moisture content continuously over space and time using geo-statistical techniques supports the refinement of process-based watershed hydrology models and the application of soil process models (e.g. biogeochemical models predicting greenhouse gas fluxes) to complex landscapes. In this study, we model soil profile volumetric moisture content for five agricultural fields with loess soils in the Palouse region of Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho. Using a combination of stratification and space-filling techniques, we selected 42 representative and distributed measurement locations in the Cook Agronomy Farm (Pullman, WA) and 12 locations each in four additional grower fields that span the precipitation gradient across the Palouse. At each measurement location, soil moisture was measured on an hourly basis at five different depths (30, 60, 90, 120, and 150 cm) using Decagon 5-TE/5-TM soil moisture sensors (Decagon Devices, Pullman, WA, USA). This data was collected over three years for the Cook Agronomy Farm and one year for each of the grower fields. In addition to ordinary kriging, we explored the correlation of volumetric water content with external, spatially exhaustive indices derived from terrain models, optical remote sensing imagery, and proximal soil sensing data (electromagnetic induction and VisNIR penetrometer)

  5. Spatial heterogeneity and risk factors for stunting among children under age five in Ethiopia: A Bayesian geo-statistical model

    PubMed Central

    Hagos, Seifu; Hailemariam, Damen; WoldeHanna, Tasew; Lindtjørn, Bernt

    2017-01-01

    Background Understanding the spatial distribution of stunting and underlying factors operating at meso-scale is of paramount importance for intervention designing and implementations. Yet, little is known about the spatial distribution of stunting and some discrepancies are documented on the relative importance of reported risk factors. Therefore, the present study aims at exploring the spatial distribution of stunting at meso- (district) scale, and evaluates the effect of spatial dependency on the identification of risk factors and their relative contribution to the occurrence of stunting and severe stunting in a rural area of Ethiopia. Methods A community based cross sectional study was conducted to measure the occurrence of stunting and severe stunting among children aged 0–59 months. Additionally, we collected relevant information on anthropometric measures, dietary habits, parent and child-related demographic and socio-economic status. Latitude and longitude of surveyed households were also recorded. Local Anselin Moran's I was calculated to investigate the spatial variation of stunting prevalence and identify potential local pockets (hotspots) of high prevalence. Finally, we employed a Bayesian geo-statistical model, which accounted for spatial dependency structure in the data, to identify potential risk factors for stunting in the study area. Results Overall, the prevalence of stunting and severe stunting in the district was 43.7% [95%CI: 40.9, 46.4] and 21.3% [95%CI: 19.5, 23.3] respectively. We identified statistically significant clusters of high prevalence of stunting (hotspots) in the eastern part of the district and clusters of low prevalence (cold spots) in the western. We found out that the inclusion of spatial structure of the data into the Bayesian model has shown to improve the fit for stunting model. The Bayesian geo-statistical model indicated that the risk of stunting increased as the child’s age increased (OR 4.74; 95% Bayesian credible

  6. Assessment of nitrate pollution in the Grand Morin aquifers (France): combined use of geostatistics and physically based modeling.

    PubMed

    Flipo, Nicolas; Jeannée, Nicolas; Poulin, Michel; Even, Stéphanie; Ledoux, Emmanuel

    2007-03-01

    The objective of this work is to combine several approaches to better understand nitrate fate in the Grand Morin aquifers (2700 km(2)), part of the Seine basin. cawaqs results from the coupling of the hydrogeological model newsam with the hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model of river ProSe. cawaqs is coupled with the agronomic model Stics in order to simulate nitrate migration in basins. First, kriging provides a satisfactory representation of aquifer nitrate contamination from local observations, to set initial conditions for the physically based model. Then associated confidence intervals, derived from data using geostatistics, are used to validate cawaqs results. Results and evaluation obtained from the combination of these approaches are given (period 1977-1988). Then cawaqs is used to simulate nitrate fate for a 20-year period (1977-1996). The mean nitrate concentrations increase in aquifers is 0.09 mgN L(-1)yr(-1), resulting from an average infiltration flux of 3500 kgN.km(-2)yr(-1).

  7. Optimisation of groundwater level monitoring networks using geostatistical modelling based on the Spartan family variogram and a genetic algorithm method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parasyris, Antonios E.; Spanoudaki, Katerina; Kampanis, Nikolaos A.

    2016-04-01

    Groundwater level monitoring networks provide essential information for water resources management, especially in areas with significant groundwater exploitation for agricultural and domestic use. Given the high maintenance costs of these networks, development of tools, which can be used by regulators for efficient network design is essential. In this work, a monitoring network optimisation tool is presented. The network optimisation tool couples geostatistical modelling based on the Spartan family variogram with a genetic algorithm method and is applied to Mires basin in Crete, Greece, an area of high socioeconomic and agricultural interest, which suffers from groundwater overexploitation leading to a dramatic decrease of groundwater levels. The purpose of the optimisation tool is to determine which wells to exclude from the monitoring network because they add little or no beneficial information to groundwater level mapping of the area. Unlike previous relevant investigations, the network optimisation tool presented here uses Ordinary Kriging with the recently-established non-differentiable Spartan variogram for groundwater level mapping, which, based on a previous geostatistical study in the area leads to optimal groundwater level mapping. Seventy boreholes operate in the area for groundwater abstraction and water level monitoring. The Spartan variogram gives overall the most accurate groundwater level estimates followed closely by the power-law model. The geostatistical model is coupled to an integer genetic algorithm method programmed in MATLAB 2015a. The algorithm is used to find the set of wells whose removal leads to the minimum error between the original water level mapping using all the available wells in the network and the groundwater level mapping using the reduced well network (error is defined as the 2-norm of the difference between the original mapping matrix with 70 wells and the mapping matrix of the reduced well network). The solution to the

  8. Modeling dolomitized carbonate-ramp reservoirs: A case study of the Seminole San Andres unit. Part 2 -- Seismic modeling, reservoir geostatistics, and reservoir simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, F.P.; Dai, J.; Kerans, C.

    1998-11-01

    In part 1 of this paper, the authors discussed the rock-fabric/petrophysical classes for dolomitized carbonate-ramp rocks, the effects of rock fabric and pore type on petrophysical properties, petrophysical models for analyzing wireline logs, the critical scales for defining geologic framework, and 3-D geologic modeling. Part 2 focuses on geophysical and engineering characterizations, including seismic modeling, reservoir geostatistics, stochastic modeling, and reservoir simulation. Synthetic seismograms of 30 to 200 Hz were generated to study the level of seismic resolution required to capture the high-frequency geologic features in dolomitized carbonate-ramp reservoirs. Outcrop data were collected to investigate effects of sampling interval and scale-up of block size on geostatistical parameters. Semivariogram analysis of outcrop data showed that the sill of log permeability decreases and the correlation length increases with an increase of horizontal block size. Permeability models were generated using conventional linear interpolation, stochastic realizations without stratigraphic constraints, and stochastic realizations with stratigraphic constraints. Simulations of a fine-scale Lawyer Canyon outcrop model were used to study the factors affecting waterflooding performance. Simulation results show that waterflooding performance depends strongly on the geometry and stacking pattern of the rock-fabric units and on the location of production and injection wells.

  9. Preliminary ECLSS waste water model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carter, Donald L.; Holder, Donald W., Jr.; Alexander, Kevin; Shaw, R. G.; Hayase, John K.

    1991-01-01

    A preliminary waste water model for input to the Space Station Freedom (SSF) Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) Water Processor (WP) has been generated for design purposes. Data have been compiled from various ECLSS tests and flight sample analyses. A discussion of the characterization of the waste streams comprising the model is presented, along with a discussion of the waste water model and the rationale for the inclusion of contaminants in their respective concentrations. The major objective is to establish a methodology for the development of a waste water model and to present the current state of that model.

  10. Evaluation of spatial variability of soil arsenic adjacent to a disused cattle-dip site, using model-based geostatistics.

    PubMed

    Niazi, Nabeel K; Bishop, Thomas F A; Singh, Balwant

    2011-12-15

    This study investigated the spatial variability of total and phosphate-extractable arsenic (As) concentrations in soil adjacent to a cattle-dip site, employing a linear mixed model-based geostatistical approach. The soil samples in the study area (n = 102 in 8.1 m(2)) were taken at the nodes of a 0.30 × 0.35 m grid. The results showed that total As concentration (0-0.2 m depth) and phosphate-extractable As concentration (at depths of 0-0.2, 0.2-0.4, and 0.4-0.6 m) in soil adjacent to the dip varied greatly. Both total and phosphate-extractable soil As concentrations significantly (p = 0.004-0.048) increased toward the cattle-dip. Using the linear mixed model, we suggest that 5 samples are sufficient to assess a dip site for soil (As) contamination (95% confidence interval of ±475.9 mg kg(-1)), but 15 samples (95% confidence interval of ±212.3 mg kg(-1)) is desirable baseline when the ultimate goal is to evaluate the effects of phytoremediation. Such guidelines on sampling requirements are crucial for the assessment of As contamination levels at other cattle-dip sites, and to determine the effect of phytoremediation on soil As.

  11. APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN AND GEOSTATISTICAL MODELING TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING OF CS-137 AT THE IDAHO NATIONAL LABORATORY

    SciTech Connect

    Kara G. Eby

    2010-08-01

    At the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Cs-137 concentrations above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency risk-based threshold of 0.23 pCi/g may increase the risk of human mortality due to cancer. As a leader in nuclear research, the INL has been conducting nuclear activities for decades. Elevated anthropogenic radionuclide levels including Cs-137 are a result of atmospheric weapons testing, the Chernobyl accident, and nuclear activities occurring at the INL site. Therefore environmental monitoring and long-term surveillance of Cs-137 is required to evaluate risk. However, due to the large land area involved, frequent and comprehensive monitoring is limited. Developing a spatial model that predicts Cs-137 concentrations at unsampled locations will enhance the spatial characterization of Cs-137 in surface soils, provide guidance for an efficient monitoring program, and pinpoint areas requiring mitigation strategies. The predictive model presented herein is based on applied geostatistics using a Bayesian analysis of environmental characteristics across the INL site, which provides kriging spatial maps of both Cs-137 estimates and prediction errors. Comparisons are presented of two different kriging methods, showing that the use of secondary information (i.e., environmental characteristics) can provide improved prediction performance in some areas of the INL site.

  12. Modeling the effect of clay drapes on pumping test response in a cross-bedded aquifer using multiple-point geostatistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huysmans, Marijke; Dassargues, Alain

    2012-07-01

    SummaryThis study investigates whether fine-scale clay drapes can cause an anisotropic pumping test response at a much larger scale. A pumping test was performed in a sandbar deposit consisting of cross-bedded units composed of materials with different grain sizes and hydraulic conductivities. The measured drawdown values in the different observation wells reveal an anisotropic or elliptically-shaped pumping cone. The major axis of the pumping ellipse is parallel with the strike of cm to m-scale clay drapes that are observed in several outcrops. To determine (1) whether this large-scale anisotropy can be the result of fine-scale clay drapes and (2) whether application of multiple-point geostatistics can improve interpretation of pumping tests, this pumping test is analyzed with a local 3D groundwater model in which fine-scale sedimentary heterogeneity is modelled using multiple-point geostatistics. To reduce CPU and RAM demand of the multiple-point geostatistical simulation step, edge properties indicating the presence of irregularly-shaped surfaces are directly simulated. Results show that the anisotropic pumping cone can be attributed to the presence of the clay drapes. Incorporating fine-scale clay drapes results in a better fit between observed and calculated drawdowns. These results thus show that fine-scale clay drapes can cause an anisotropic pumping test response at a much larger scale and that the combined approach of multiple-point geostatistics and cell edge properties is an efficient method for integrating fine-scale features in larger scale models.

  13. Improved hydrological model parametrization for climate change impact assessment under data scarcity - The potential of field monitoring techniques and geostatistics.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Swen; Blaschek, Michael; Duttmann, Rainer; Ludwig, Ralf

    2016-02-01

    According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources, agricultural productivity and drinking water supply. Current projections of future hydrological change, based on regional climate model results and subsequent hydrological modeling schemes, are very uncertain and poorly validated. The Rio Mannu di San Sperate Basin, located in Sardinia, Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The Water Simulation Model (WaSiM) was set up to model current and future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as it is common for many Mediterranean catchments. In this study we conducted a soil sampling campaign in the Rio Mannu catchment. We tested different deterministic and hybrid geostatistical interpolation methods on soil textures and tested the performance of the applied models. We calculated a new soil texture map based on the best prediction method. The soil model in WaSiM was set up with the improved new soil information. The simulation results were compared to standard soil parametrization. WaSiMs was validated with spatial evapotranspiration rates using the triangle method (Jiang and Islam, 1999). WaSiM was driven with the meteorological forcing taken from 4 different ENSEMBLES climate projections for a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) times series. The climate change impact was assessed based on differences between reference and future time series. The simulated results show a reduction of all hydrological quantities in the future in the spring season. Furthermore simulation results reveal an earlier onset of dry conditions in the catchment. We show that a solid soil model setup based on short-term field measurements can improve long-term modeling results, which is especially important

  14. 3D geostatistical modeling of fracture system in a granitic massif to characterize hydraulic properties and fracture distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koike, Katsuaki; Kubo, Taiki; Liu, Chunxue; Masoud, Alaa; Amano, Kenji; Kurihara, Arata; Matsuoka, Toshiyuki; Lanyon, Bill

    2015-10-01

    This study integrates 3D models of rock fractures from different sources and hydraulic properties aimed at identifying relationships between fractures and permeability. The Tono area in central Japan, chiefly overlain by Cretaceous granite, was examined because of the availability of a unique dataset from deep borehole data at 26 sites. A geostatistical method (GEOFRAC) that can incorporate orientations of sampled data was applied to 50,900 borehole fractures for spatial modeling of fractures over a 12 km by 8 km area, to a depth of 1.5 km. GEOFRAC produced a plausible 3D fracture model, in that the orientations of simulated fractures correspond to those of the sample data and the continuous fractures appeared near a known fault. Small-scale fracture distributions with dominant orientations were also characterized around the two shafts using fracture data from the shaft walls. By integrating the 3D model of hydraulic conductivity using sequential Gaussian simulation with the GEOFRAC fractures from the borehole data, the fracture sizes and directions that strongly affect permeable features were identified. Four fracture-related elements: lineaments from a shaded 10-m DEM, GEOFRAC fractures using the borehole and shaft data, and microcracks from SEM images, were used for correlating fracture attributes at different scales. The consistency of the semivariogram models of distribution densities was identified. Using an experimental relationship between hydraulic conductivity and fracture length, the fractures that typically affect the hydraulic properties at the drift scale were surmised to be in the range 100-200 m. These results are useful for a comprehensive understanding of rock fracture systems and their hydraulic characteristics at multiple scales in a target area.

  15. Geostatistical modelling of arsenic in drinking water wells and related toenail arsenic concentrations across Nova Scotia, Canada.

    PubMed

    Dummer, T J B; Yu, Z M; Nauta, L; Murimboh, J D; Parker, L

    2015-02-01

    Arsenic is a naturally occurring class 1 human carcinogen that is widespread in private drinking water wells throughout the province of Nova Scotia in Canada. In this paper we explore the spatial variation in toenail arsenic concentrations (arsenic body burden) in Nova Scotia. We describe the regional distribution of arsenic concentrations in private well water supplies in the province, and evaluate the geological and environmental features associated with higher levels of arsenic in well water. We develop geostatistical process models to predict high toenail arsenic concentrations and high well water arsenic concentrations, which have utility for studies where no direct measurements of arsenic body burden or arsenic exposure are available. 892 men and women who participated in the Atlantic Partnership for Tomorrow's Health Project provided both drinking water and toenail clipping samples. Information on socio-demographic, lifestyle and health factors was obtained with a set of standardized questionnaires. Anthropometric indices and arsenic concentrations in drinking water and toenails were measured. In addition, data on arsenic concentrations in 10,498 private wells were provided by the Nova Scotia Department of Environment. We utilised stepwise multivariable logistic regression modelling to develop separate statistical models to: a) predict high toenail arsenic concentrations (defined as toenail arsenic levels ≥0.12 μg g(-1)) and b) predict high well water arsenic concentrations (defined as well water arsenic levels ≥5.0 μg L(-1)). We found that the geological and environmental information that predicted well water arsenic concentrations can also be used to accurately predict toenail arsenic concentrations. We conclude that geological and environmental factors contributing to arsenic contamination in well water are the major contributing influences on arsenic body burden among Nova Scotia residents. Further studies are warranted to assess appropriate

  16. Geostatistical modeling of uncertainty of the spatial distribution of available phosphorus in soil in a sugarcane field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tadeu Pereira, Gener; Ribeiro de Oliveira, Ismênia; De Bortoli Teixeira, Daniel; Arantes Camargo, Livia; Rodrigo Panosso, Alan; Marques, José, Jr.

    2015-04-01

    Phosphorus is one of the limiting nutrients for sugarcane development in Brazilian soils. The spatial variability of this nutrient is great, defined by the properties that control its adsorption and desorption reactions. Spatial estimates to characterize this variability are based on geostatistical interpolation. Thus, the assessment of the uncertainty of estimates associated with the spatial distribution of available P (Plabile) is decisive to optimize the use of phosphate fertilizers. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) and ordinary kriging (OK) in the modeling of uncertainty in available P estimates. A sampling grid with 626 points was established in a 200-ha experimental sugarcane field in Tabapuã, São Paulo State, Brazil. The soil was sampled in the crossover points of a regular grid with intervals of 50 m. From the observations, 63 points, approximately 10% of sampled points were randomly selected before the geostatistical modeling of the composition of a data set used in the validation process modeling, while the remaining 563 points were used for the predictions variable in a place not sampled. The sGs generated 200 realizations. From the realizations generated, different measures of estimation and uncertainty were obtained. The standard deviation, calculated point to point, all simulated maps provided the map of deviation, used to assess local uncertainty. The visual analysis of maps of the E-type and KO showed that the spatial patterns produced by both methods were similar, however, it was possible to observe the characteristic smoothing effect of the KO especially in regions with extreme values. The Standardized variograms of selected realizations sGs showed both range and model similar to the variogram of the Observed date of Plabile. The variogram KO showed a distinct structure of the observed data, underestimating the variability over short distances, presenting parabolic behavior near

  17. Geostatistical case studies

    SciTech Connect

    Matheron, G.; Armstrong, M.

    1987-01-01

    The objective of this volume of contributed chapters is to present a series of applications of geostatistics. These range from a careful variographic analysis on uranium data, through detailed studies on geologically complex deposits, right up to the latest nonlinear methods applied to deposits with highly skewed data contributions. Applications of new techniques such as the external drift method for combining well data with seismic information have also been included. The volume emphasizes geostatistics in practice. Notation has been kept to a minimum and mathematical details have been relegated to annexes.

  18. GY SAMPLING THEORY AND GEOSTATISTICS: ALTERNATE MODELS OF VARIABILITY IN CONTINUOUS MEDIA

    EPA Science Inventory



    In the sampling theory developed by Pierre Gy, sample variability is modeled as the sum of a set of seven discrete error components. The variogram used in geostatisties provides an alternate model in which several of Gy's error components are combined in a continuous mode...

  19. Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Schistosomiasis Prevalence among Individuals Aged ≤20 Years in West Africa

    PubMed Central

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou; Traoré, Mamadou S.; Ndir, Omar; Ratard, Raoult C.; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Kristensen, Thomas K.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2011-01-01

    Background Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis prevalence maps. Methodology We analyzed survey data compiled on a newly established open-access global neglected tropical diseases database (i) to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium for individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa, including Cameroon, and (ii) to derive country-specific prevalence estimates. We used Bayesian geostatistical models based on environmental predictors to take into account potential clustering due to common spatially structured exposures. Prediction at unobserved locations was facilitated by joint kriging. Principal Findings Our models revealed that 50.8 million individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa are infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. The country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (The Gambia) and 37.1% (Liberia) for S. mansoni, and between 17.6% (The Gambia) and 51.6% (Sierra Leone) for S. haematobium. We observed that the combined prevalence for both schistosome species is two-fold lower in Gambia than previously reported, while we found an almost two-fold higher estimate for Liberia (58.3%) than reported before (30.0%). Our predictions are likely to overestimate overall country prevalence, since modeling was based on children and adolescents up to the age of 20 years who are at highest risk of infection. Conclusion/Significance We

  20. Mapping soil organic carbon stocks by robust geostatistical and boosted regression models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nussbaum, Madlene; Papritz, Andreas; Baltensweiler, Andri; Walthert, Lorenz

    2013-04-01

    Carbon (C) sequestration in forests offsets greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, quantifying C stocks and fluxes in forest ecosystems is of interest for greenhouse gas reporting according to the Kyoto protocol. In Switzerland, the National Forest Inventory offers comprehensive data to quantify the aboveground forest biomass and its change in time. Estimating stocks of soil organic C (SOC) in forests is more difficult because the variables needed to quantify stocks vary strongly in space and precise quantification of some of them is very costly. Based on data from 1'033 plots we modeled SOC stocks of the organic layer and the mineral soil to depths of 30 cm and 100 cm for the Swiss forested area. For the statistical modeling a broad range of covariates were available: Climate data (e. g. precipitation, temperature), two elevation models (resolutions 25 and 2 m) with respective terrain attributes and spectral reflectance data representing vegetation. Furthermore, the main mapping units of an overview soil map and a coarse scale geological map were used to coarsely represent the parent material of the soils. The selection of important covariates for SOC stocks modeling out of a large set was a major challenge for the statistical modeling. We used two approaches to deal with this problem: 1) A robust restricted maximum likelihood method to fit linear regression model with spatially correlated errors. The large number of covariates was first reduced by LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) and then further narrowed down to a parsimonious set of important covariates by cross-validation of the robustly fitted model. To account for nonlinear dependencies of the response on the covariates interaction terms of the latter were included in model if this improved the fit. 2) A boosted structured regression model with componentwise linear least squares or componentwise smoothing splines as base procedures. The selection of important covariates was done by the

  1. Quick evaluation of multiple geostatistical models using upscaling with coarse grids: A practical study

    SciTech Connect

    Lemouzy, P.

    1997-08-01

    In field delineation phase, uncertainty in hydrocarbon reservoir descriptions is large. To quickly examine the impact of this uncertainty on production performance, it is necessary to evaluate a large number of descriptions in relation to possible production methods (well spacing, injection rate, etc.). The method of using coarse upscaled models was first proposed by Ballin. Unlike other methods (connectivity analysis, tracer simulations), it considers parameters such as PVT, well management, etc. After a detailed review of upscaling issues, applications to water-injection cases (either with balance or imbalance of production, with or without aquifer) and to depletion of an oil reservoir with aquifer coning are presented. Much more important than the method of permeability upscaling far from wells, the need of correct upscaling of numerical well representation is pointed out Methods are proposed to accurately represent fluids volumes in coarse models. Simple methods to upscale relative permeabilities, and methods to efficiently correct numerical dispersion are proposed. Good results are obtained for water injection. The coarse upscaling method allows the performance of sensitivity analyses on model parameters at a much lower CPU cost than comprehensive simulations. Models representing extreme behaviors can be easily distinguished. For depletion of an oil reservoir showing aquifer coning, however, the method did not work property. It is our opinion that further research is required for upscaling close to wells. We therefore recombined this method for practical use in the case of water injection.

  2. G6PD Deficiency Prevalence and Estimates of Affected Populations in Malaria Endemic Countries: A Geostatistical Model-Based Map

    PubMed Central

    Howes, Rosalind E.; Piel, Frédéric B.; Patil, Anand P.; Nyangiri, Oscar A.; Gething, Peter W.; Dewi, Mewahyu; Hogg, Mariana M.; Battle, Katherine E.; Padilla, Carmencita D.; Baird, J. Kevin; Hay, Simon I.

    2012-01-01

    Background Primaquine is a key drug for malaria elimination. In addition to being the only drug active against the dormant relapsing forms of Plasmodium vivax, primaquine is the sole effective treatment of infectious P. falciparum gametocytes, and may interrupt transmission and help contain the spread of artemisinin resistance. However, primaquine can trigger haemolysis in patients with a deficiency in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDd). Poor information is available about the distribution of individuals at risk of primaquine-induced haemolysis. We present a continuous evidence-based prevalence map of G6PDd and estimates of affected populations, together with a national index of relative haemolytic risk. Methods and Findings Representative community surveys of phenotypic G6PDd prevalence were identified for 1,734 spatially unique sites. These surveys formed the evidence-base for a Bayesian geostatistical model adapted to the gene's X-linked inheritance, which predicted a G6PDd allele frequency map across malaria endemic countries (MECs) and generated population-weighted estimates of affected populations. Highest median prevalence (peaking at 32.5%) was predicted across sub-Saharan Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Although G6PDd prevalence was generally lower across central and southeast Asia, rarely exceeding 20%, the majority of G6PDd individuals (67.5% median estimate) were from Asian countries. We estimated a G6PDd allele frequency of 8.0% (interquartile range: 7.4–8.8) across MECs, and 5.3% (4.4–6.7) within malaria-eliminating countries. The reliability of the map is contingent on the underlying data informing the model; population heterogeneity can only be represented by the available surveys, and important weaknesses exist in the map across data-sparse regions. Uncertainty metrics are used to quantify some aspects of these limitations in the map. Finally, we assembled a database of G6PDd variant occurrences to inform a national-level index of

  3. Geo-statistical model of Rainfall erosivity by using high temporal resolution precipitation data in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall erosivity (R-factor) is among the 6 input factors in estimating soil erosion risk by using the empirical Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). R-factor is a driving force for soil erosion modelling and potentially can be used in flood risk assessments, landslides susceptibility, post-fire damage assessment, application of agricultural management practices and climate change modelling. The rainfall erosivity is extremely difficult to model at large scale (national, European) due to lack of high temporal resolution precipitation data which cover long-time series. In most cases, R-factor is estimated based on empirical equations which take into account precipitation volume. The Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) is the output of an extensive data collection of high resolution precipitation data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland taking place during 2013-2014 in collaboration with national meteorological/environmental services. Due to different temporal resolutions of the data (5, 10, 15, 30, 60 minutes), conversion equations have been applied in order to homogenise the database at 30-minutes interval. The 1,541 stations included in REDES have been interpolated using the Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model using as covariates the climatic data (monthly precipitation, monthly temperature, wettest/driest month) from WorldClim Database, Digital Elevation Model and latitude/longitude. GPR has been selected among other candidate models (GAM, Regression Kriging) due the best performance both in cross validation (R2=0.63) and in fitting dataset (R2=0.72). The highest uncertainty has been noticed in North-western Scotland, North Sweden and Finland due to limited number of stations in REDES. Also, in highlands such as Alpine arch and Pyrenees the diversity of environmental features forced relatively high uncertainty. The rainfall erosivity map of Europe available at 500m resolution plus the standard error

  4. Geostatistical modeling of riparian forest microclimate and its implications for sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eskelson, B.N.I.; Anderson, P.D.; Hagar, J.C.; Temesgen, H.

    2011-01-01

    Predictive models of microclimate under various site conditions in forested headwater stream - riparian areas are poorly developed, and sampling designs for characterizing underlying riparian microclimate gradients are sparse. We used riparian microclimate data collected at eight headwater streams in the Oregon Coast Range to compare ordinary kriging (OK), universal kriging (UK), and kriging with external drift (KED) for point prediction of mean maximum air temperature (Tair). Several topographic and forest structure characteristics were considered as site-specific parameters. Height above stream and distance to stream were the most important covariates in the KED models, which outperformed OK and UK in terms of root mean square error. Sample patterns were optimized based on the kriging variance and the weighted means of shortest distance criterion using the simulated annealing algorithm. The optimized sample patterns outperformed systematic sample patterns in terms of mean kriging variance mainly for small sample sizes. These findings suggest methods for increasing efficiency of microclimate monitoring in riparian areas.

  5. Geostatistical Modeling of Malaria Endemicity using Serological Indicators of Exposure Collected through School Surveys

    PubMed Central

    Ashton, Ruth A.; Kefyalew, Takele; Rand, Alison; Sime, Heven; Assefa, Ashenafi; Mekasha, Addis; Edosa, Wasihun; Tesfaye, Gezahegn; Cano, Jorge; Teka, Hiwot; Reithinger, Richard; Pullan, Rachel L.; Drakeley, Chris J.; Brooker, Simon J.

    2015-01-01

    Ethiopia has a diverse ecology and geography resulting in spatial and temporal variation in malaria transmission. Evidence-based strategies are thus needed to monitor transmission intensity and target interventions. A purposive selection of dried blood spots collected during cross-sectional school-based surveys in Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia, were tested for presence of antibodies against Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax antigens. Spatially explicit binomial models of seroprevalence were created for each species using a Bayesian framework, and used to predict seroprevalence at 5 km resolution across Oromia. School seroprevalence showed a wider prevalence range than microscopy for both P. falciparum (0–50% versus 0–12.7%) and P. vivax (0–53.7% versus 0–4.5%), respectively. The P. falciparum model incorporated environmental predictors and spatial random effects, while P. vivax seroprevalence first-order trends were not adequately explained by environmental variables, and a spatial smoothing model was developed. This is the first demonstration of serological indicators being used to detect large-scale heterogeneity in malaria transmission using samples from cross-sectional school-based surveys. The findings support the incorporation of serological indicators into periodic large-scale surveillance such as Malaria Indicator Surveys, and with particular utility for low transmission and elimination settings. PMID:25962770

  6. Combining geostatistical models and remotely sensed data to improve vegetation classification in Horqin sandy land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Chujiang

    2015-08-01

    On different degrees of desertification land, there exists different vegetation communities, and spatial structure differences are obvious among different vegetation communities. This study implemented variogram calculation using typical sample selected from the image, adopting a common global optimization method to fit them into the spherical model. The results showed that the difference is obvious among different vegetation communities for the sill and range, such as, the sill and range are smaller for sample variogram of Artemisia halodendron and Salix flavida community than that of Artemisia halodendron and Caragana microphylla community, and the range for sample variogram of Agriophyllum arenarium community is bigger than that of Artemisia halodendron and Salix flavida community, but smaller than that of Artemisia halodendron and Caragana microphylla community. Incorporating the difference of the spatial structure characterization into the vegetation classification can improve sample separation, thereby increasing the overall classification accuracy.

  7. Development of Geostatistical Models to Estimate CO2 Storage Resource in Sedimentary Geologic Formations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popova, Olga H.

    Dental hygiene students must embody effective critical thinking skills in order to provide evidence-based comprehensive patient care. The problem addressed in this study it was not known if and to what extent concept mapping and reflective journaling activities embedded in a curriculum over a 4-week period, impacted the critical thinking skills of 22 first and second-year dental hygiene students attending a community college in the Midwest. The overarching research questions were: what is the effect of concept mapping, and what is the effect of reflective journaling on the level of critical thinking skills of first and second year dental hygiene students? This quantitative study employed a quasi-experimental, pretest-posttest design. Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) assessed students' mean scores of critical thinking on the California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST) pretest and posttest for the concept mapping and reflective journaling treatment groups. The results of the study found an increase in CCTST posttest scores with the use of both concept mapping and reflective journaling. However, the increase in scores was not found to be statistically significant. Hence, this study identified concept mapping using Ausubel's assimilation theory and reflective journaling incorporating Johns's revision of Carper's patterns of knowing as potential instructional strategies and theoretical models to enhance undergraduate students' critical thinking skills. More research is required in this area to draw further conclusions. Keywords: Critical thinking, critical thinking development, critical thinking skills, instructional strategies, concept mapping, reflective journaling, dental hygiene, college students.

  8. Mixed-point geostatistical simulation: A combination of two- and multiple-point geostatistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cordua, Knud Skou; Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Gulbrandsen, Mats Lundh; Barnes, Christophe; Mosegaard, Klaus

    2016-09-01

    Multiple-point-based geostatistical methods are used to model complex geological structures. However, a training image containing the characteristic patterns of the Earth model has to be provided. If no training image is available, two-point (i.e., covariance-based) geostatistical methods are typically applied instead because these methods provide fewer constraints on the Earth model. This study is motivated by the case where 1-D vertical training images are available through borehole logs, whereas little or no information about horizontal dependencies exists. This problem is solved by developing theory that makes it possible to combine information from multiple- and two-point geostatistics for different directions, leading to a mixed-point geostatistical model. An example of combining information from the multiple-point-based single normal equation simulation algorithm and two-point-based sequential indicator simulation algorithm is provided. The mixed-point geostatistical model is used for conditional sequential simulation based on vertical training images from five borehole logs and a range parameter describing the horizontal dependencies.

  9. Combining Land-Use Regression and Chemical Transport Modeling in a Spatiotemporal Geostatistical Model for Ozone and PM2.5.

    PubMed

    Wang, Meng; Sampson, Paul D; Hu, Jianlin; Kleeman, Michael; Keller, Joshua P; Olives, Casey; Szpiro, Adam A; Vedal, Sverre; Kaufman, Joel D

    2016-05-17

    Assessments of long-term air pollution exposure in population studies have commonly employed land-use regression (LUR) or chemical transport modeling (CTM) techniques. Attempts to incorporate both approaches in one modeling framework are challenging. We present a novel geostatistical modeling framework, incorporating CTM predictions into a spatiotemporal LUR model with spatial smoothing to estimate spatiotemporal variability of ozone (O3) and particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) from 2000 to 2008 in the Los Angeles Basin. The observations include over 9 years' data from more than 20 routine monitoring sites and specific monitoring data at over 100 locations to provide more comprehensive spatial coverage of air pollutants. Our composite modeling approach outperforms separate CTM and LUR models in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE) assessed by 10-fold cross-validation in both temporal and spatial dimensions, with larger improvement in the accuracy of predictions for O3 (RMSE [ppb] for CTM, 6.6; LUR, 4.6; composite, 3.6) than for PM2.5 (RMSE [μg/m(3)] CTM: 13.7, LUR: 3.2, composite: 3.1). Our study highlights the opportunity for future exposure assessment to make use of readily available spatiotemporal modeling methods and auxiliary gridded data that takes chemical reaction processes into account to improve the accuracy of predictions in a single spatiotemporal modeling framework.

  10. Very preliminary reference Moon model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, Raphaël F.; Gagnepain-Beyneix, Jeannine; Chevrot, Sébastien; Lognonné, Philippe

    2011-09-01

    The deep structure of the Moon is a missing piece to understand the formation and evolution of the Earth-Moon system. Despite the great amount of information brought by the Apollo passive seismic experiment (ALSEP), the lunar structure below deep moonquakes, which occur around 900 km depth, remains largely unknown. We construct a reference Moon model which incorporates physical constraints, and fits both geodesic (lunar mass and polar moment of inertia, and Love numbers) and seismological (body wave arrivals measured by Apollo network) data. In this model, the core radius is constrained by the detection of S waves reflected from the core. In a first step, for each core radius, a radial model of the lunar interior, including P and S wave velocities and density, is inverted from seismic and geodesic data. In a second step, the core radius is determined from the detection of shear waves reflected on the lunar core by waveform stacking of deep moonquake Apollo records. This detection has been made possible by careful data selection and processing, including a correction of the gain of horizontal sensors based on the principle of energy equipartition inside the coda of lunar seismic records, and a precise alignment of SH waveforms by a non-linear inversion method. The Very Preliminary REference MOON model (VPREMOON) obtained here has a core radius of 380 ± 40 km and an average core mass density of 5200 ± 1000 kg/m 3. The large error bars on these estimates are due to the poorly constrained S-wave velocity profile at the base of the mantle and to mislocation errors of deep moonquakes. The detection of horizontally polarized S waves reflected from the core and the absence of detection of vertically polarized S waves favour a liquid state in the outermost part of the core. All these results are consistent, within their error bars, with previous estimates based on lunar rotation dissipation ( Williams et al., 2001) and on lunar induced magnetic moment ( Hood et al., 1999).

  11. Random vectors and spatial analysis by geostatistics for geotechnical applications

    SciTech Connect

    Young, D.S.

    1987-08-01

    Geostatistics is extended to the spatial analysis of vector variables by defining the estimation variance and vector variogram in terms of the magnitude of difference vectors. Many random variables in geotechnology are in vectorial terms rather than scalars, and its structural analysis requires those sample variable interpolations to construct and characterize structural models. A better local estimator will result in greater quality of input models; geostatistics can provide such estimators; kriging estimators. The efficiency of geostatistics for vector variables is demonstrated in a case study of rock joint orientations in geological formations. The positive cross-validation encourages application of geostatistics to spatial analysis of random vectors in geoscience as well as various geotechnical fields including optimum site characterization, rock mechanics for mining and civil structures, cavability analysis of block cavings, petroleum engineering, and hydrologic and hydraulic modelings.

  12. Geostatistical applications in environmental remediation

    SciTech Connect

    Stewart, R.N.; Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F.

    1995-02-01

    Geostatistical analysis refers to a collection of statistical methods for addressing data that vary in space. By incorporating spatial information into the analysis, geostatistics has advantages over traditional statistical analysis for problems with a spatial context. Geostatistics has a history of success in earth science applications, and its popularity is increasing in other areas, including environmental remediation. Due to recent advances in computer technology, geostatistical algorithms can be executed at a speed comparable to many standard statistical software packages. When used responsibly, geostatistics is a systematic and defensible tool can be used in various decision frameworks, such as the Data Quality Objectives (DQO) process. At every point in the site, geostatistics can estimate both the concentration level and the probability or risk of exceeding a given value. Using these probability maps can assist in identifying clean-up zones. Given any decision threshold and an acceptable level of risk, the probability maps identify those areas that are estimated to be above or below the acceptable risk. Those areas that are above the threshold are of the most concern with regard to remediation. In addition to estimating clean-up zones, geostatistics can assist in designing cost-effective secondary sampling schemes. Those areas of the probability map with high levels of estimated uncertainty are areas where more secondary sampling should occur. In addition, geostatistics has the ability to incorporate soft data directly into the analysis. These data include historical records, a highly correlated secondary contaminant, or expert judgment. The role of geostatistics in environmental remediation is a tool that in conjunction with other methods can provide a common forum for building consensus.

  13. Applications of geostatistics in plant nematology.

    PubMed

    Wallace, M K; Hawkins, D M

    1994-12-01

    The application of geostatistics to plant nematology was made by evaluating soil and nematode data acquired from 200 soil samples collected from the A(p) horizon of a reed canary-grass field in northern Minnesota. Geostatistical concepts relevant to nematology include semi-variogram modelling, kriging, and change of support calculations. Soil and nematode data generally followed a spherical semi-variogram model, with little random variability associated with soil data and large inherent variability for nematode data. Block kriging of soil and nematode data provided useful contour maps of the data. Change of snpport calculations indicated that most of the random variation in nematode data was due to short-range spatial variability in the nematode population densities.

  14. Multivariate Geostatistical Analysis of Uncertainty for the Hydrodynamic Model of a Geological Trap for Carbon Dioxide Storage. Case study: Multilayered Geological Structure Vest Valcele, ROMANIA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scradeanu, D.; Pagnejer, M.

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of the works is to evaluate the uncertainty of the hydrodynamic model for a multilayered geological structure, a potential trap for carbon dioxide storage. The hydrodynamic model is based on a conceptual model of the multilayered hydrostructure with three components: 1) spatial model; 2) parametric model and 3) energy model. The necessary data to achieve the three components of the conceptual model are obtained from: 240 boreholes explored by geophysical logging and seismic investigation, for the first two components, and an experimental water injection test for the last one. The hydrodinamic model is a finite difference numerical model based on a 3D stratigraphic model with nine stratigraphic units (Badenian and Oligocene) and a 3D multiparameter model (porosity, permeability, hydraulic conductivity, storage coefficient, leakage etc.). The uncertainty of the two 3D models was evaluated using multivariate geostatistical tools: a)cross-semivariogram for structural analysis, especially the study of anisotropy and b)cokriging to reduce estimation variances in a specific situation where is a cross-correlation between a variable and one or more variables that are undersampled. It has been identified important differences between univariate and bivariate anisotropy. The minimised uncertainty of the parametric model (by cokriging) was transferred to hydrodynamic model. The uncertainty distribution of the pressures generated by the water injection test has been additional filtered by the sensitivity of the numerical model. The obtained relative errors of the pressure distribution in the hydrodynamic model are 15-20%. The scientific research was performed in the frame of the European FP7 project "A multiple space and time scale approach for the quantification of deep saline formation for CO2 storage(MUSTANG)".

  15. Estimation of extreme daily precipitation: comparison between regional and geostatistical approaches.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellies, Matteo; Deidda, Roberto; Langousis, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    We study the extreme rainfall regime of the Island of Sardinia in Italy, based on annual maxima of daily precipitation. The statistical analysis is conducted using 229 daily rainfall records with at least 50 complete years of observations, collected at different sites by the Hydrological Survey of the Sardinia Region. Preliminary analysis, and the L-skewness and L-kurtosis diagrams, show that the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution model performs best in describing daily rainfall extremes. The GEV distribution parameters are estimated using the method of Probability Weighted Moments (PWM). To obtain extreme rainfall estimates at ungauged sites, while minimizing uncertainties due to sampling variability, a regional and a geostatistical approach are compared. The regional approach merges information from different gauged sites, within homogeneous regions, to obtain GEV parameter estimates at ungauged locations. The geostatistical approach infers the parameters of the GEV distribution model at locations where measurements are available, and then spatially interpolates them over the study region. In both approaches we use local rainfall means as index-rainfall. In the regional approach we define homogeneous regions by applying a hierarchical cluster analysis based on Ward's method, with L-moment ratios (i.e. L-CV and L-Skewness) as metrics. The analysis results in four contiguous regions, which satisfy the Hosking and Wallis (1997) homogeneity tests. The latter have been conducted using a Monte-Carlo approach based on a 4-parameter Kappa distribution model, fitted to each station cluster. Note that the 4-parameter Kappa model includes the GEV distribution as a sub-case, when the fourth parameter h is set to 0. In the geostatistical approach we apply kriging for uncertain data (KUD), which accounts for the error variance in local parameter estimation and, therefore, may serve as a useful tool for spatial interpolation of metrics affected by high uncertainty. In

  16. Geostatistical modeling of the gas emission zone and its in-place gas content for Pittsburgh-seam mines using sequential Gaussian simulation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Karacan, C.O.; Olea, R.A.; Goodman, G.

    2012-01-01

    Determination of the size of the gas emission zone, the locations of gas sources within, and especially the amount of gas retained in those zones is one of the most important steps for designing a successful methane control strategy and an efficient ventilation system in longwall coal mining. The formation of the gas emission zone and the potential amount of gas-in-place (GIP) that might be available for migration into a mine are factors of local geology and rock properties that usually show spatial variability in continuity and may also show geometric anisotropy. Geostatistical methods are used here for modeling and prediction of gas amounts and for assessing their associated uncertainty in gas emission zones of longwall mines for methane control.This study used core data obtained from 276 vertical exploration boreholes drilled from the surface to the bottom of the Pittsburgh coal seam in a mining district in the Northern Appalachian basin. After identifying important coal and non-coal layers for the gas emission zone, univariate statistical and semivariogram analyses were conducted for data from different formations to define the distribution and continuity of various attributes. Sequential simulations performed stochastic assessment of these attributes, such as gas content, strata thickness, and strata displacement. These analyses were followed by calculations of gas-in-place and their uncertainties in the Pittsburgh seam caved zone and fractured zone of longwall mines in this mining district. Grid blanking was used to isolate the volume over the actual panels from the entire modeled district and to calculate gas amounts that were directly related to the emissions in longwall mines.Results indicated that gas-in-place in the Pittsburgh seam, in the caved zone and in the fractured zone, as well as displacements in major rock units, showed spatial correlations that could be modeled and estimated using geostatistical methods. This study showed that GIP volumes may

  17. Geostatistical modeling of the gas emission zone and its in-place gas content for Pittsburgh-seam mines using sequential Gaussian simulation

    PubMed Central

    Karacan, C. Özgen; Olea, Ricardo A.; Goodman, Gerrit

    2015-01-01

    Determination of the size of the gas emission zone, the locations of gas sources within, and especially the amount of gas retained in those zones is one of the most important steps for designing a successful methane control strategy and an efficient ventilation system in longwall coal mining. The formation of the gas emission zone and the potential amount of gas-in-place (GIP) that might be available for migration into a mine are factors of local geology and rock properties that usually show spatial variability in continuity and may also show geometric anisotropy. Geostatistical methods are used here for modeling and prediction of gas amounts and for assessing their associated uncertainty in gas emission zones of longwall mines for methane control. This study used core data obtained from 276 vertical exploration boreholes drilled from the surface to the bottom of the Pittsburgh coal seam in a mining district in the Northern Appalachian basin. After identifying important coal and non-coal layers for the gas emission zone, univariate statistical and semivariogram analyses were conducted for data from different formations to define the distribution and continuity of various attributes. Sequential simulations performed stochastic assessment of these attributes, such as gas content, strata thickness, and strata displacement. These analyses were followed by calculations of gas-in-place and their uncertainties in the Pittsburgh seam caved zone and fractured zone of longwall mines in this mining district. Grid blanking was used to isolate the volume over the actual panels from the entire modeled district and to calculate gas amounts that were directly related to the emissions in longwall mines. Results indicated that gas-in-place in the Pittsburgh seam, in the caved zone and in the fractured zone, as well as displacements in major rock units, showed spatial correlations that could be modeled and estimated using geostatistical methods. This study showed that GIP volumes may

  18. Preliminary Cost Model for Space Telescopes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Prince, F. Andrew; Smart, Christian; Stephens, Kyle; Henrichs, Todd

    2009-01-01

    Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. However, great care is required. Some space telescope cost models, such as those based only on mass, lack sufficient detail to support such analysis and may lead to inaccurate conclusions. Similarly, using ground based telescope models which include the dome cost will also lead to inaccurate conclusions. This paper reviews current and historical models. Then, based on data from 22 different NASA space telescopes, this paper tests those models and presents preliminary analysis of single and multi-variable space telescope cost models.

  19. Application of the ESRI Geostatistical Analyst for determining the adequacy and sample size requirements of ozone distribution models in the Carpathian and Sierra Nevada Mountains.

    PubMed

    Fraczek, W; Bytnerowicz, A; Arbaugh, M J

    2001-12-07

    Models of O3 distribution in two mountain ranges, the Carpathians in Central Europe and the Sierra Nevada in California were constructed using ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst extension (ESRI, Redlands, CA) using kriging and cokriging methods. The adequacy of the spatially interpolated ozone (O3) concentrations and sample size requirements for ozone passive samplers was also examined. In case of the Carpathian Mountains, only a general surface of O3 distribution could be obtained, partially due to a weak correlation between O3 concentration and elevation, and partially due to small numbers of unevenly distributed sample sites. In the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the O3 monitoring network was much denser and more evenly distributed, and additional climatologic information was available. As a result the estimated surfaces were more precise and reliable than those created for the Carpathians. The final maps of O3 concentrations for Sierra Nevada were derived from cokriging algorithm based on two secondary variables--elevation and maximum temperature as well as the determined geographic trend. Evenly distributed and sufficient numbers of sample points are a key factor for model accuracy and reliability.

  20. Preliminary Model of Porphyry Copper Deposits

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Berger, Byron R.; Ayuso, Robert A.; Wynn, Jeffrey C.; Seal, Robert R., II

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Resources Program develops mineral-deposit models for application in USGS mineral-resource assessments and other mineral resource-related activities within the USGS as well as for nongovernmental applications. Periodic updates of models are published in order to incorporate new concepts and findings on the occurrence, nature, and origin of specific mineral deposit types. This update is a preliminary model of porphyry copper deposits that begins an update process of porphyry copper models published in USGS Bulletin 1693 in 1986. This update includes a greater variety of deposit attributes than were included in the 1986 model as well as more information about each attribute. It also includes an expanded discussion of geophysical and remote sensing attributes and tools useful in resource evaluations, a summary of current theoretical concepts of porphyry copper deposit genesis, and a summary of the environmental attributes of unmined and mined deposits.

  1. Imprecise (fuzzy) information in geostatistics

    SciTech Connect

    Bardossy, A.; Bogardi, I.; Kelly, W.E.

    1988-05-01

    A methodology based on fuzzy set theory for the utilization of imprecise data in geostatistics is presented. A common problem preventing a broader use of geostatistics has been the insufficient amount of accurate measurement data. In certain cases, additional but uncertain (soft) information is available and can be encoded as subjective probabilities, and then the soft kriging method can be applied (Journal, 1986). In other cases, a fuzzy encoding of soft information may be more realistic and simplify the numerical calculations. Imprecise (fuzzy) spatial information on the possible variogram is integrated into a single variogram which is used in a fuzzy kriging procedure. The overall uncertainty of prediction is represented by the estimation variance and the calculated membership function for each kriged point. The methodology is applied to the permeability prediction of a soil liner for hazardous waste containment. The available number of hard measurement data (20) was not enough for a classical geostatistical analysis. An additional 20 soft data made it possible to prepare kriged contour maps using the fuzzy geostatistical procedure.

  2. Hydrogeologic unit flow characterization using transition probability geostatistics.

    PubMed

    Jones, Norman L; Walker, Justin R; Carle, Steven F

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a technique for applying the transition probability geostatistics method for stochastic simulation to a MODFLOW model. Transition probability geostatistics has some advantages over traditional indicator kriging methods including a simpler and more intuitive framework for interpreting geologic relationships and the ability to simulate juxtapositional tendencies such as fining upward sequences. The indicator arrays generated by the transition probability simulation are converted to layer elevation and thickness arrays for use with the new Hydrogeologic Unit Flow package in MODFLOW 2000. This makes it possible to preserve complex heterogeneity while using reasonably sized grids and/or grids with nonuniform cell thicknesses.

  3. Large scale air pollution estimation method combining land use regression and chemical transport modeling in a geostatistical framework.

    PubMed

    Akita, Yasuyuki; Baldasano, Jose M; Beelen, Rob; Cirach, Marta; de Hoogh, Kees; Hoek, Gerard; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Serre, Marc L; de Nazelle, Audrey

    2014-04-15

    In recognition that intraurban exposure gradients may be as large as between-city variations, recent air pollution epidemiologic studies have become increasingly interested in capturing within-city exposure gradients. In addition, because of the rapidly accumulating health data, recent studies also need to handle large study populations distributed over large geographic domains. Even though several modeling approaches have been introduced, a consistent modeling framework capturing within-city exposure variability and applicable to large geographic domains is still missing. To address these needs, we proposed a modeling framework based on the Bayesian Maximum Entropy method that integrates monitoring data and outputs from existing air quality models based on Land Use Regression (LUR) and Chemical Transport Models (CTM). The framework was applied to estimate the yearly average NO2 concentrations over the region of Catalunya in Spain. By jointly accounting for the global scale variability in the concentration from the output of CTM and the intraurban scale variability through LUR model output, the proposed framework outperformed more conventional approaches.

  4. Reducing uncertainty in geostatistical description with well testing pressure data

    SciTech Connect

    Reynolds, A.C.; He, Nanqun; Oliver, D.S.

    1997-08-01

    Geostatistics has proven to be an effective tool for generating realizations of reservoir properties conditioned to static data, e.g., core and log data and geologic knowledge. Due to the lack of closely spaced data in the lateral directions, there will be significant variability in reservoir descriptions generated by geostatistical simulation, i.e., significant uncertainty in the reservoir descriptions. In past work, we have presented procedures based on inverse problem theory for generating reservoir descriptions (rock property fields) conditioned to pressure data and geostatistical information represented as prior means for log-permeability and porosity and variograms. Although we have shown that the incorporation of pressure data reduces the uncertainty below the level contained in the geostatistical model based only on static information (the prior model), our previous results assumed did not explicitly account for uncertainties in the prior means and the parameters defining the variogram model. In this work, we investigate how pressure data can help detect errors in the prior means. If errors in the prior means are large and are not taken into account, realizations conditioned to pressure data represent incorrect samples of the a posteriori probability density function for the rock property fields, whereas, if the uncertainty in the prior mean is incorporated properly into the model, one obtains realistic realizations of the rock property fields.

  5. Geostatistics applied to gas reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Meunier, G.; Coulomb, C.; Laille, J.P. )

    1989-09-01

    The spatial distribution of many of the physical parameters connected with a gas reservoir is of primary interest to both engineers and geologists throughout the study, development, and operation of a field. It is therefore desirable for the distribution to be capable of statistical interpretation, to have a simple graphical representation, and to allow data to be entered from either two- or three-dimensional grids. To satisfy these needs while dealing with the geographical variables, new methods have been developed under the name geostatistics. This paper describes briefly the theory of geostatistics and its most recent improvements for the specific problem of subsurface description. The external-drift technique has been emphasized in particular, and in addition, four case studies related to gas reservoirs are presented.

  6. Using geostatistics to evaluate cleanup goals

    SciTech Connect

    Marcon, M.F.; Hopkins, L.P.

    1995-12-01

    Geostatistical analysis is a powerful predictive tool typically used to define spatial variability in environmental data. The information from a geostatistical analysis using kriging, a geostatistical. tool, can be taken a step further to optimize sampling location and frequency and help quantify sampling uncertainty in both the remedial investigation and remedial design at a hazardous waste site. Geostatistics were used to quantify sampling uncertainty in attainment of a risk-based cleanup goal and determine the optimal sampling frequency necessary to delineate the horizontal extent of impacted soils at a Gulf Coast waste site.

  7. Modeling the spatial distribution of above-ground carbon in Mexican coniferous forests using remote sensing and a geostatistical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galeana-Pizaña, J. Mauricio; López-Caloca, Alejandra; López-Quiroz, Penélope; Silván-Cárdenas, José Luis; Couturier, Stéphane

    2014-08-01

    Forest conservation is considered an option for mitigating the effect of greenhouse gases on global climate, hence monitoring forest carbon pools at global and local levels is important. The present study explores the capability of remote-sensing variables (vegetation indices and textures derived from SPOT-5; backscattering coefficient and interferometric coherence of ALOS PALSAR images) for modeling the spatial distribution of above-ground biomass in the Environmental Conservation Zone of Mexico City. Correlation and spatial autocorrelation coefficients were used to select significant explanatory variables in fir and pine forests. The correlation for interferometric coherence in HV polarization was negative, with correlations coefficients r = -0.83 for the fir and r = -0.75 for the pine forests. Regression-kriging showed the least root mean square error among the spatial interpolation methods used, with 37.75 tC/ha for fir forests and 29.15 tC/ha for pine forests. The results showed that a hybrid geospatial method, based on interferometric coherence data and a regression-kriging interpolator, has good potential for estimating above-ground biomass carbon.

  8. Breast carcinoma, intratumour heterogeneity and histological grading, using geostatistics.

    PubMed

    Sharifi-Salamatian, V; de Roquancourt, A; Rigaut, J P

    2000-01-01

    Tumour progression is currently believed to result from genetic instability. Chromosomal patterns specific of a type of cancer are frequent even though phenotypic spatial heterogeneity is omnipresent. The latter is the usual cause of histological grading imprecision, a well documented problem, without any fully satisfactory solution up to now. The present article addresses this problem in breast carcinoma. The assessment of a genetic marker for human tumours requires quantifiable measures of intratumoral heterogeneity. If any invariance paradigm representing a stochastic or geostatistic function could be discovered, this might help in solving the grading problem. A novel methodological approach using geostatistics to measure heterogeneity is used. Twenty tumours from the three usual (Scarff-Bloom and Richardson) grades were obtained and paraffin sections stained by MIB-1 (Ki-67) and peroxidase staining. Whole two-dimensional sections were sampled. Morphometric grids of variable sizes allowed a simple and fast recording of positions of epithelial nuclei, marked or not by MIB-1. The geostatistical method is based here upon the asymptotic behaviour of dispersion variance. Measure of asymptotic exponent of dispersion variance shows an increase from grade 1 to grade 3. Preliminary results are encouraging: grades 1 and 3 on one hand and 2 and 3 on the other hand are totally separated. The final proof of an improved grading using this measure will of course require a confrontation with the results of survival studies.

  9. Preliminary Proactive Sample Size Determination for Confirmatory Factor Analysis Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koran, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Proactive preliminary minimum sample size determination can be useful for the early planning stages of a latent variable modeling study to set a realistic scope, long before the model and population are finalized. This study examined existing methods and proposed a new method for proactive preliminary minimum sample size determination.

  10. Using geostatistics to estimate coal reserves

    SciTech Connect

    Royle, A.G.

    1982-09-01

    Geostatistics have, in the past, been used for evaluating metallic ore reserves. Today they are finding more use for coal reserve determination. An example is given to show how geostatistics can be used to estimate mean thickness, sulphur content and other data from in situ coal. (3 refs.)

  11. Geostatistical enhancement of european hydrological predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugliese, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio; Parajka, Juraj; Arheimer, Berit; Bagli, Stefano; Mazzoli, Paolo; Montanari, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-04-01

    second phase, we develop a module, to be added to the flow-duration curve prediction framework, capable of enhancing E-HYPE-based predictions of FDCs by modelling the residuals obtained from the first phase. Among all possible methods, we apply geostatistical modelling of residuals and, alternatively, regional regression, so that residuals between empirical and E-HYPE-base predicted FDCs are described in terms of geomorphological and climatic catchment descriptors.

  12. Preliminary Phase Field Computational Model Development

    SciTech Connect

    Li, Yulan; Hu, Shenyang Y.; Xu, Ke; Suter, Jonathan D.; McCloy, John S.; Johnson, Bradley R.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep

    2014-12-15

    experiments, special experimental methods were devised to create similar boundary conditions in the iron films. Preliminary MFM studies conducted on single and polycrystalline iron films with small sub-areas created with focused ion beam have correlated quite well qualitatively with phase-field simulations. However, phase-field model dimensions are still small relative to experiments thus far. We are in the process of increasing the size of the models and decreasing specimen size so both have identical dimensions. Ongoing research is focused on validation of the phase-field model. Validation is being accomplished through comparison with experimentally obtained MFM images (in progress), and planned measurements of major hysteresis loops and first order reversal curves. Extrapolation of simulation sizes to represent a more stochastic bulk-like system will require sampling of various simulations (i.e., with single non-magnetic defect, single magnetic defect, single grain boundary, single dislocation, etc.) with distributions of input parameters. These outputs can then be compared to laboratory magnetic measurements and ultimately to simulate magnetic Barkhausen noise signals.

  13. Reservoir property grids improve with geostatistics

    SciTech Connect

    Vogt, J. . E and P Technology Dept.)

    1993-09-01

    Visualization software, reservoir simulators and many other E and P software applications need reservoir property grids as input. Using geostatistics, as compared to other gridding methods, to produce these grids leads to the best output from the software programs. For the purpose stated herein, geostatistics is simply two types of gridding methods. Mathematically, these methods are based on minimizing or duplicating certain statistical properties of the input data. One geostatical method, called kriging, is used when the highest possible point-by-point accuracy is desired. The other method, called conditional simulation, is used when one wants statistics and texture of the resulting grid to be the same as for the input data. In the following discussion, each method is explained, compared to other gridding methods, and illustrated through example applications. Proper use of geostatistical data in flow simulations, use of geostatistical data for history matching, and situations where geostatistics has no significant advantage over other methods, also will be covered.

  14. Geostatistical Estimations of Regional Hydraulic Conductivity Fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patriarche, D.; Castro, M. C.; Goovaerts, P.

    2004-12-01

    Direct and indirect measurements of hydraulic conductivity (K) are commonly performed, providing information on the magnitude of this parameter at the local scale (tens of centimeters to hundreds of meters) and at shallow depths. By contrast, field information on hydraulic conductivities at regional scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers and at greater depths is relatively scarce. Geostatistical methods allow for sparsely sampled observations of a variable (primary information) to be complemented by a more densely sampled secondary attribute. Geostatistical estimations of the hydraulic conductivity field in the Carrizo aquifer, a major groundwater flow system extending along Texas, are performed using available primary (e.g., transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity) and secondary (specific capacity) information, for depths up to 2.2 km, and over three regional domains of increasing extent: 1) the domain corresponding to a three-dimensional groundwater flow model previously built (model domain); 2) the area corresponding to the ten counties encompassing the model domain (County domain), and; 3) the full extension of the Carrizo aquifer within Texas (Texas domain). Two different approaches are used: 1) an indirect approach are transmissivity (T) is estimated first and (K) is retrieved through division of the T estimate by the screening length of the wells, and; 2) a direct approach where K data are kriged directly. Prediction performances of the tested geostatistical procedures (kriging combined with linear regression, kriging with known local means, kriging of residuals, and cokriging) are evaluated through cross validation for both log-transformed variables and back-transformed ones. For the indirect approach, kriging of log T residuals yields the best estimates for both log-transformed and back-transformed variables in the model domain. For larger regional scales (County and Texas domains), cokriging performs generally better than univariate kriging procedures

  15. Addressing uncertainty in rock properties through geostatistical simulation

    SciTech Connect

    McKenna, S.A.; Rautman, A.; Cromer, M.V.; Zelinski, W.P.

    1996-09-01

    Fracture and matrix properties in a sequence of unsaturated, welded tuffs at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, are modeled in two-dimensional cross-sections through geostatistical simulation. In the absence of large amounts of sample data, an n interpretive, deterministic, stratigraphic model is coupled with a gaussian simulation algorithm to constrain realizations of both matrix porosity and fracture frequency. Use of the deterministic, stratigraphic model imposes scientific judgment, in the form of a conceptual geologic model, onto the property realizations. Linear coregionalization and a regression relationship between matrix porosity and matrix hydraulic conductivity are used to generate realizations of matrix hydraulic conductivity. Fracture-frequency simulations conditioned on the stratigraphic model represent one class of fractures (cooling fractures) in the conceptual model of the geology. A second class of fractures (tectonic fractures) is conceptualized as fractures that cut across strata vertically and includes discrete features such as fault zones. Indicator geostatistical simulation provides locations of this second class of fractures. The indicator realizations are combined with the realizations of fracture spacing to create realizations of fracture frequency that are a combination of both classes of fractures. Evaluations of the resulting realizations include comparing vertical profiles of rock properties within the model to those observed in boreholes and checking intra-unit property distributions against collected data. Geostatistical simulation provides an efficient means of addressing spatial uncertainty in dual continuum rock properties.

  16. Assessing the resolution-dependent utility of tomograms for geostatistics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Day-Lewis, F. D.; Lane, J.W.

    2004-01-01

    Geophysical tomograms are used increasingly as auxiliary data for geostatistical modeling of aquifer and reservoir properties. The correlation between tomographic estimates and hydrogeologic properties is commonly based on laboratory measurements, co-located measurements at boreholes, or petrophysical models. The inferred correlation is assumed uniform throughout the interwell region; however, tomographic resolution varies spatially due to acquisition geometry, regularization, data error, and the physics underlying the geophysical measurements. Blurring and inversion artifacts are expected in regions traversed by few or only low-angle raypaths. In the context of radar traveltime tomography, we derive analytical models for (1) the variance of tomographic estimates, (2) the spatially variable correlation with a hydrologic parameter of interest, and (3) the spatial covariance of tomographic estimates. Synthetic examples demonstrate that tomograms of qualitative value may have limited utility for geostatistics; moreover, the imprint of regularization may preclude inference of meaningful spatial statistics from tomograms.

  17. Combining geostatistics with Moran's I analysis for mapping soil heavy metals in Beijing, China.

    PubMed

    Huo, Xiao-Ni; Li, Hong; Sun, Dan-Feng; Zhou, Lian-Di; Li, Bao-Guo

    2012-03-01

    Production of high quality interpolation maps of heavy metals is important for risk assessment of environmental pollution. In this paper, the spatial correlation characteristics information obtained from Moran's I analysis was used to supplement the traditional geostatistics. According to Moran's I analysis, four characteristics distances were obtained and used as the active lag distance to calculate the semivariance. Validation of the optimality of semivariance demonstrated that using the two distances where the Moran's I and the standardized Moran's I, Z(I) reached a maximum as the active lag distance can improve the fitting accuracy of semivariance. Then, spatial interpolation was produced based on the two distances and their nested model. The comparative analysis of estimation accuracy and the measured and predicted pollution status showed that the method combining geostatistics with Moran's I analysis was better than traditional geostatistics. Thus, Moran's I analysis is a useful complement for geostatistics to improve the spatial interpolation accuracy of heavy metals.

  18. Importance of stationarity for geostatistical assessment of environmental contamination

    SciTech Connect

    Dagdelen, K.; Turner, A.K.

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes a geostatistical case study to assess TCE contamination from multiple point sources that is migrating through the geologically complex conditions with several aquifers. The paper highlights the importance of the stationarity assumption by demonstrating how biased assessments of TCE contamination result when ordinary kriging of the data that violates stationarity assumptions. Division of the data set into more homogeneous geologic and hydrologic zones improved the accuracy of the estimates. Indicator kriging offers an alternate method for providing a stochastic model that is more appropriate for the data. Further improvement in the estimates results when indicator kriging is applied to individual subregional data sets that are based on geological considerations. This further enhances the data homogeneity and makes use of stationary model more appropriate. By combining geological and geostatistical evaluations, more realistic maps may be produced that reflect the hydrogeological environment and provide a sound basis for future investigations and remediation.

  19. Geostatistical Study of Precipitation on the Island of Crete

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agou, Vasiliki D.; Varouchakis, Emmanouil A.; Hristopulos, Dionissios T.

    2015-04-01

    Understanding and predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation in the Mediterranean islands is an important topic of research, which is emphasized by alarming long-term predictions for increased drought conditions [4]. The analysis of records from drought-prone areas around the world has demonstrated that precipitation data are non-Gaussian. Typically, such data are fitted to the gamma distribution function and then transformed into a normalized index, the so-called Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) [5]. The SPI can be defined for different time scales and has been applied to data from various regions [2]. Precipitation maps can be constructed using the stochastic method of Ordinary Kriging [1]. Such mathematical tools help to better understand the space-time variability and to plan water resources management. We present preliminary results of an ongoing investigation of the space-time precipitation distribution on the island of Crete (Greece). The study spans the time period from 1948 to 2012 and extends over an area of 8 336 km2. The data comprise monthly precipitation measured at 56 stations. Analysis of the data showed that the most severe drought occurred in 1950 followed by 1989, whereas the wettest year was 2002 followed by 1977. A spatial trend was observed with the spatially averaged annual precipitation in the West measured at about 450mm higher than in the East. Analysis of the data also revealed strong correlations between the precipitation in the western and eastern parts of the island. In addition to longitude, elevation (masl) was determined to be an important factor that exhibits strong linear correlation with precipitation. The precipitation data exhibit wet and dry periods with strong variability even during the wet period. Thus, fitting the data to specific probability distribution models has proved challenging. Different time scales, e.g. monthly, biannual, and annual have been investigated. Herein we focus on annual

  20. Preliminary Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Model for Space Telescopes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Hendrichs, Todd

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews creating a preliminary multi-variable cost model for the contract costs of making a space telescope. There is discussion of the methodology for collecting the data, definition of the statistical analysis methodology, single variable model results, testing of historical models and an introduction of the multi variable models.

  1. GEOSTATISTICAL SAMPLING DESIGNS FOR HAZARDOUS WASTE SITES

    EPA Science Inventory

    This chapter discusses field sampling design for environmental sites and hazardous waste sites with respect to random variable sampling theory, Gy's sampling theory, and geostatistical (kriging) sampling theory. The literature often presents these sampling methods as an adversari...

  2. Hydrogeologic Unit Flow Characterization Using Transition Probability Geostatistics

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, N L; Walker, J R; Carle, S F

    2003-11-21

    This paper describes a technique for applying the transition probability geostatistics method for stochastic simulation to a MODFLOW model. Transition probability geostatistics has several advantages over traditional indicator kriging methods including a simpler and more intuitive framework for interpreting geologic relationships and the ability to simulate juxtapositional tendencies such as fining upwards sequences. The indicator arrays generated by the transition probability simulation are converted to layer elevation and thickness arrays for use with the new Hydrogeologic Unit Flow (HUF) package in MODFLOW 2000. This makes it possible to preserve complex heterogeneity while using reasonably sized grids. An application of the technique involving probabilistic capture zone delineation for the Aberjona Aquifer in Woburn, Ma. is included.

  3. Robust geostatistical analysis of spatial data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papritz, Andreas; Künsch, Hans Rudolf; Schwierz, Cornelia; Stahel, Werner A.

    2013-04-01

    Most of the geostatistical software tools rely on non-robust algorithms. This is unfortunate, because outlying observations are rather the rule than the exception, in particular in environmental data sets. Outliers affect the modelling of the large-scale spatial trend, the estimation of the spatial dependence of the residual variation and the predictions by kriging. Identifying outliers manually is cumbersome and requires expertise because one needs parameter estimates to decide which observation is a potential outlier. Moreover, inference after the rejection of some observations is problematic. A better approach is to use robust algorithms that prevent automatically that outlying observations have undue influence. Former studies on robust geostatistics focused on robust estimation of the sample variogram and ordinary kriging without external drift. Furthermore, Richardson and Welsh (1995) proposed a robustified version of (restricted) maximum likelihood ([RE]ML) estimation for the variance components of a linear mixed model, which was later used by Marchant and Lark (2007) for robust REML estimation of the variogram. We propose here a novel method for robust REML estimation of the variogram of a Gaussian random field that is possibly contaminated by independent errors from a long-tailed distribution. It is based on robustification of estimating equations for the Gaussian REML estimation (Welsh and Richardson, 1997). Besides robust estimates of the parameters of the external drift and of the variogram, the method also provides standard errors for the estimated parameters, robustified kriging predictions at both sampled and non-sampled locations and kriging variances. Apart from presenting our modelling framework, we shall present selected simulation results by which we explored the properties of the new method. This will be complemented by an analysis a data set on heavy metal contamination of the soil in the vicinity of a metal smelter. Marchant, B.P. and Lark, R

  4. Preliminary results of steel containment vessel model test

    SciTech Connect

    Luk, V.K.; Hessheimer, M.F.; Matsumoto, T.; Komine, K.; Arai, S.; Costello, J.F.

    1998-04-01

    A high pressure test of a mixed-scaled model (1:10 in geometry and 1:4 in shell thickness) of a steel containment vessel (SCV), representing an improved boiling water reactor (BWR) Mark II containment, was conducted on December 11--12, 1996 at Sandia National Laboratories. This paper describes the preliminary results of the high pressure test. In addition, the preliminary post-test measurement data and the preliminary comparison of test data with pretest analysis predictions are also presented.

  5. On the geostatistical characterization of hierarchical media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuman, Shlomo P.; Riva, Monica; Guadagnini, Alberto

    2008-02-01

    The subsurface consists of porous and fractured materials exhibiting a hierarchical geologic structure, which gives rise to systematic and random spatial and directional variations in hydraulic and transport properties on a multiplicity of scales. Traditional geostatistical moment analysis allows one to infer the spatial covariance structure of such hierarchical, multiscale geologic materials on the basis of numerous measurements on a given support scale across a domain or "window" of a given length scale. The resultant sample variogram often appears to fit a stationary variogram model with constant variance (sill) and integral (spatial correlation) scale. In fact, some authors, who recognize that hierarchical sedimentary architecture and associated log hydraulic conductivity fields tend to be nonstationary, nevertheless associate them with stationary "exponential-like" transition probabilities and variograms, respectively, the latter being a consequence of the former. We propose that (1) the apparent ability of stationary spatial statistics to characterize the covariance structure of nonstationary hierarchical media is an artifact stemming from the finite size of the windows within which geologic and hydrologic variables are ubiquitously sampled, and (2) the artifact is eliminated upon characterizing the covariance structure of such media with the aid of truncated power variograms, which represent stationary random fields obtained upon sampling a nonstationary fractal over finite windows. To support our opinion, we note that truncated power variograms arise formally when a hierarchical medium is sampled jointly across all geologic categories and scales within a window; cite direct evidence that geostatistical parameters (variance and integral scale) inferred on the basis of traditional variograms vary systematically with support and window scales; demonstrate the ability of truncated power models to capture these variations in terms of a few scaling parameters

  6. Near-Infrared Spectroscopy and Geostatistical Analysis for Modeling Spatial Distribution of Analytical Constituents in Bulk Animal By-Product Protein Meals.

    PubMed

    Adame-Siles, José A; Fearn, Tom; Guerrero-Ginel, José E; Garrido-Varo, Ana; Maroto-Molina, Francisco; Pérez-Marín, Dolores

    2017-03-01

    Control and inspection operations within the context of safety and quality assessment of bulk foods and feeds are not only of particular importance, they are also demanding challenges, given the complexity of food/feed production systems and the variability of product properties. Existing methodologies have a variety of limitations, such as high costs of implementation per sample or shortcomings in early detection of potential threats for human/animal health or quality deviations. Therefore, new proposals are required for the analysis of raw materials in situ in a more efficient and cost-effective manner. For this purpose, a pilot laboratory study was performed on a set of bulk lots of animal by-product protein meals to introduce and test an approach based on near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy and geostatistical analysis. Spectral data, provided by a fiber optic probe connected to a Fourier transform (FT) NIR spectrometer, were used to predict moisture and crude protein content at each sampling point. Variographic analysis was carried out for spatial structure characterization, while ordinary Kriging achieved continuous maps for those parameters. The results indicated that the methodology could be a first approximation to an approach that, properly complemented with the Theory of Sampling and supported by experimental validation in real-life conditions, would enhance efficiency and the decision-making process regarding safety and adulteration issues.

  7. A preliminary model of the coma of 2060 Chiron

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boice, Daniel C.; Konno, I.; Stern, S. Alan; Huebner, Walter F.

    1992-01-01

    We have included gravity in our fluid dynamic model with chemical kinetics of dusty comet comae and applied it with two dust sizes to 2060 Chiron. A progress report on the model and preliminary results concerning gas/dust dynamics and chemistry is given.

  8. Book Review Geostatistical Analysis of Compositional Data

    SciTech Connect

    Carle, S F

    2007-03-26

    Compositional data are represented as vector variables with individual vector components ranging between zero and a positive maximum value representing a constant sum constraint, usually unity (or 100 percent). The earth sciences are flooded with spatial distributions of compositional data, such as concentrations of major ion constituents in natural waters (e.g. mole, mass, or volume fractions), mineral percentages, ore grades, or proportions of mutually exclusive categories (e.g. a water-oil-rock system). While geostatistical techniques have become popular in earth science applications since the 1970s, very little attention has been paid to the unique mathematical properties of geostatistical formulations involving compositional variables. The book 'Geostatistical Analysis of Compositional Data' by Vera Pawlowsky-Glahn and Ricardo Olea (Oxford University Press, 2004), unlike any previous book on geostatistics, directly confronts the mathematical difficulties inherent to applying geostatistics to compositional variables. The book righteously justifies itself with prodigious referencing to previous work addressing nonsensical ranges of estimated values and error, spurious correlation, and singular cross-covariance matrices.

  9. Geostatistics and spatial analysis in biological anthropology.

    PubMed

    Relethford, John H

    2008-05-01

    A variety of methods have been used to make evolutionary inferences based on the spatial distribution of biological data, including reconstructing population history and detection of the geographic pattern of natural selection. This article provides an examination of geostatistical analysis, a method used widely in geology but which has not often been applied in biological anthropology. Geostatistical analysis begins with the examination of a variogram, a plot showing the relationship between a biological distance measure and the geographic distance between data points and which provides information on the extent and pattern of spatial correlation. The results of variogram analysis are used for interpolating values of unknown data points in order to construct a contour map, a process known as kriging. The methods of geostatistical analysis and discussion of potential problems are applied to a large data set of anthropometric measures for 197 populations in Ireland. The geostatistical analysis reveals two major sources of spatial variation. One pattern, seen for overall body and craniofacial size, shows an east-west cline most likely reflecting the combined effects of past population dispersal and settlement. The second pattern is seen for craniofacial height and shows an isolation by distance pattern reflecting rapid spatial changes in the midlands region of Ireland, perhaps attributable to the genetic impact of the Vikings. The correspondence of these results with other analyses of these data and the additional insights generated from variogram analysis and kriging illustrate the potential utility of geostatistical analysis in biological anthropology.

  10. A geostatistical approach to contaminant source identification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snodgrass, Mark F.; Kitanidis, Peter K.

    1997-04-01

    A geostatistical approach to contaminant source estimation is presented. The problem is to estimate the release history of a conservative solute given point concentration measurements at some time after the release. A Bayesian framework is followed to derive the best estimate and to quantify the estimation error. The relation between this approach and common regularization and interpolation schemes is discussed. The performance of the method is demonstrated for transport in a simple one-dimensional homogeneous medium, although the approach is directly applicable to transport in two- or three-dimensional domains. The methodology produces a best estimate of the release history and a confidence interval. Conditional realizations of the release history are generated that are useful in visualization and risk assessment. The performance of the method with sparse data and large measurement error is examined. Emphasis is placed on formulating the estimation method in a computationally efficient manner. The method does not require the inversion of matrices whose size depends on the grid size used to resolve the solute release history. The issue of model validation is addressed.

  11. GEOSTATISTICS FOR WASTE MANAGEMENT: A USER'S MANUAL FOR THE GEOPACK (VERSION 1.0) GEOSTATISTICAL SOFTWARE SYSTEM

    EPA Science Inventory

    GEOPACK, a comprehensive user-friendly geostatistical software system, was developed to help in the analysis of spatially correlated data. The software system was developed to be used by scientists, engineers, regulators, etc., with little experience in geostatistical techniques...

  12. Preliminary Multivariable Cost Model for Space Telescopes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stahl, H. Philip

    2010-01-01

    Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. Previously, the authors published two single variable cost models based on 19 flight missions. The current paper presents the development of a multi-variable space telescopes cost model. The validity of previously published models are tested. Cost estimating relationships which are and are not significant cost drivers are identified. And, interrelationships between variables are explored

  13. V and V Efforts of Auroral Precipitation Models: Preliminary Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Rastaetter, Lutz; Hesse, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Auroral precipitation models have been valuable both in terms of space weather applications and space science research. Yet very limited testing has been performed regarding model performance. A variety of auroral models are available, including empirical models that are parameterized by geomagnetic indices or upstream solar wind conditions, now casting models that are based on satellite observations, or those derived from physics-based, coupled global models. In this presentation, we will show our preliminary results regarding V&V efforts of some of the models.

  14. Intellectual Competence and Academic Performance: Preliminary Validation of a Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chamorro-Premuzic, Tomas; Arteche, Adriane

    2008-01-01

    The present study provides a preliminary empirical test of [Chamorro-Premuzic, T., & Furnham, A. (2004). A possible model to understand the personality-intelligence interface. "British Journal of Psychology," 95, 249-264], [Chamorro-Premuzic, T., & Furnham, A. (2006a). Intellectual competence and the intelligent personality: A…

  15. Extending the Agricultural Extension Model. Preliminary Draft.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rogers, Everett M.; And Others

    The purposes of this report are: to describe the main elements of the U.S. agricultural extension model and its effects on the agricultural revolution; to analyze attempts to extend this model to non-agricultural technology and/or to less developed countries; and to draw general conclusions about the diffusion of technological innovations, with…

  16. Modeling method and preliminary model of Asteroid Toutatis from Chang'E-2 optical images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xiang-Yu; Qiao, Dong

    2014-06-01

    Shape modeling is fundamental to the analysis of dynamic environment and motion around asteroid. Chang'E-2 successfully made a flyby of Asteroid 4179 Toutatis and obtained plenty of high-resolution images during the mission. In this paper, the modeling method and preliminary model of Asteroid Toutatis are discussed. First, the optical images obtained by Chang'E-2 are analyzed. Terrain and silhouette features in images are described. Then, the modeling method based on previous radar model and preliminary information from optical images is proposed. A preliminary polyhedron model of Asteroid Toutatis is established. Finally, the spherical harmonic coefficients of Asteroid Toutatis based on the polyhedron model are obtained. Some parameters of model are analyzed and compared. Although the model proposed in this paper is only a preliminary model, this work offers a valuable reference for future high-resolution models.

  17. Preliminary Saturated-Zone Flow Model

    SciTech Connect

    1997-06-10

    This milestone consists of an updated fully 3D model of ground-water flow within the saturated zone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. All electronic files pertaining to this deliverable have been transferred via ftp transmission to Steve Bodnar (M and O) and the technical data base. The model was developed using a flow and transport simulator, FEHMN, developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory, and represents a collaborative effort between staff from the US Geological Survey and Los Alamos National Laboratory. The model contained in this deliverable is minimally calibrated and represents work in progress. The flow model developed for this milestone is designed to feed subsequent transport modeling studies at Los Alamos which also use the FEHMN software. In addition, a general-application parameter estimation routine, PEST, was used in conjunction with FEHMN to reduce the difference between observed and simulated values of hydraulic head through the adjustment of model variables. This deliverable in large part consists of the electronic files for Yucca Mountain Site saturated-zone flow model as it existed as of 6/6/97, including the executable version of FEHMN (accession no. MOL.19970610.0204) used to run the code on a Sun Ultrasparc I workstation. It is expected that users of the contents of this deliverable be knowledgeable about the oration of FEHMN.

  18. Preliminary shuttle structural dynamics modeling design study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1972-01-01

    The design and development of a structural dynamics model of the space shuttle are discussed. The model provides for early study of structural dynamics problems, permits evaluation of the accuracy of the structural and hydroelastic analysis methods used on test vehicles, and provides for efficiently evaluating potential cost savings in structural dynamic testing techniques. The discussion is developed around the modes in which major input forces and responses occur and the significant structural details in these modes.

  19. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-06-01

    This Preliminary Assessment draft report will present the results of a literature search and preliminary assessment of the body of research, analysis methods, models and data deemed to be relevant to the Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment research. This report will provide: 1) a description of the problem space and the kinds of information pertinent to the problem space, 2) a discussion of key relevant or representative literature, 3) a discussion of models and modeling approaches judged to be potentially useful to the research, and 4) the next steps of this research that will be pursued based on this preliminary assessment. This draft report represents a technical deliverable for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling (SAM) program. Specifically this draft report is the Task 1 deliverable for project PL09-UtilSocial-PD06, Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment. This project investigates non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessment, including nonproliferation assessment, proliferation resistance assessments, safeguards assessments and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about the State’s posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This project will find and fuse social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation. The aim of this research is to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment.

  20. A preliminary weather model for optical communications through the atmosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shaik, K. S.

    1988-01-01

    A preliminary weather model is presented for optical propagation through the atmosphere. It can be used to compute the attenuation loss due to the atmosphere for desired link availability statistics. The quantitative results that can be obtained from this model provide good estimates for the atmospheric link budget necessary for the design of an optical communication system. The result is extended to provide for the computation of joint attenuation probability for n sites with uncorrelated weather patterns.

  1. Using geostatistics to predict the characteristics of washed coal

    SciTech Connect

    Armstrong, M.

    1984-04-01

    This paper was presented to an SME-AIME meeting in 1981. The established techniques of linear geostatistics (ordinary kriging) can be used to estimate the total tonnage and the grade of coal in situ; more sophisticated techniques are required for predicting the characteristics of washed coal in situ. Two approaches are being investigated. One involves a parametric model of the washability curves and disjunctive kriging. The other is similar to the service variable approach used for estimating recoverable uranium reserves. This latter method is described in this paper.

  2. Geostatistics for environmental and geotechnical applications

    SciTech Connect

    Rouhani, S.; Srivastava, R.M.; Desbarats, A.J.; Cromer, M.V.; Johnson, A.I.

    1996-12-31

    This conference was held January 26--27, 1995 in Phoenix, Arizona. The purpose of this conference was to provide a multidisciplinary forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on the technology of geostatistics and its applicability for environmental studies, especially site characterization. Individual papers have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases.

  3. Preliminary report on electromagnetic model studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frischknecht, F.C.; Mangan, G.B.

    1960-01-01

    More than 70 resopnse curves for various models have been obtained using the slingram and turam electromagnetic methods. Results show that for the slingram method, horizontal co-planar coils are usually more sensitive than vertical, co-axial or vertical, co-planar coils. The shape of the anomaly usually is simpler for the vertical coils.

  4. TiConverter: A training image converting tool for multiple-point geostatistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fadlelmula F., Mohamed M.; Killough, John; Fraim, Michael

    2016-11-01

    TiConverter is a tool developed to ease the application of multiple-point geostatistics whether by the open source Stanford Geostatistical Modeling Software (SGeMS) or other available commercial software. TiConverter has a user-friendly interface and it allows the conversion of 2D training images into numerical representations in four different file formats without the need for additional code writing. These are the ASCII (.txt), the geostatistical software library (GSLIB) (.txt), the Isatis (.dat), and the VTK formats. It performs the conversion based on the RGB color system. In addition, TiConverter offers several useful tools including image resizing, smoothing, and segmenting tools. The purpose of this study is to introduce the TiConverter, and to demonstrate its application and advantages with several examples from the literature.

  5. Use of geostatistics for remediation planning to transcend urban political boundaries.

    PubMed

    Milillo, Tammy M; Sinha, Gaurav; Gardella, Joseph A

    2012-11-01

    Soil remediation plans are often dictated by areas of jurisdiction or property lines instead of scientific information. This study exemplifies how geostatistically interpolated surfaces can substantially improve remediation planning. Ordinary kriging, ordinary co-kriging, and inverse distance weighting spatial interpolation methods were compared for analyzing surface and sub-surface soil sample data originally collected by the US EPA and researchers at the University at Buffalo in Hickory Woods, an industrial-residential neighborhood in Buffalo, NY, where both lead and arsenic contamination is present. Past clean-up efforts estimated contamination levels from point samples, but parcel and agency jurisdiction boundaries were used to define remediation sites, rather than geostatistical models estimating the spatial behavior of the contaminants in the soil. Residents were understandably dissatisfied with the arbitrariness of the remediation plan. In this study we show how geostatistical mapping and participatory assessment can make soil remediation scientifically defensible, socially acceptable, and economically feasible.

  6. Stochastic modeling of a lava-flow aquifer system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cronkite-Ratcliff, Collin; Phelps, Geoffrey A.

    2014-01-01

    This report describes preliminary three-dimensional geostatistical modeling of a lava-flow aquifer system using a multiple-point geostatistical model. The purpose of this study is to provide a proof-of-concept for this modeling approach. An example of the method is demonstrated using a subset of borehole geologic data and aquifer test data from a portion of the Calico Hills Formation, a lava-flow aquifer system that partially underlies Pahute Mesa, Nevada. Groundwater movement in this aquifer system is assumed to be controlled by the spatial distribution of two geologic units—rhyolite lava flows and zeolitized tuffs. The configuration of subsurface lava flows and tuffs is largely unknown because of limited data. The spatial configuration of the lava flows and tuffs is modeled by using a multiple-point geostatistical simulation algorithm that generates a large number of alternative realizations, each honoring the available geologic data and drawn from a geologic conceptual model of the lava-flow aquifer system as represented by a training image. In order to demonstrate how results from the geostatistical model could be analyzed in terms of available hydrologic data, a numerical simulation of part of an aquifer test was applied to the realizations of the geostatistical model.

  7. A Bayesian geostatistical transfer function approach to tracer test analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fienen, Michael N.; Luo, Jian; Kitanidis, Peter K.

    2006-07-01

    Reactive transport modeling is often used in support of bioremediation and chemical treatment planning and design. There remains a pressing need for practical and efficient models that do not require (or assume attainable) the high level of characterization needed by complex numerical models. We focus on a linear systems or transfer function approach to the problem of reactive tracer transport in a heterogeneous saprolite aquifer. Transfer functions are obtained through the Bayesian geostatistical inverse method applied to tracer injection histories and breakthrough curves. We employ nonparametric transfer functions, which require minimal assumptions about shape and structure. The resulting flexibility empowers the data to determine the nature of the transfer function with minimal prior assumptions. Nonnegativity is enforced through a reflected Brownian motion stochastic model. The inverse method enables us to quantify uncertainty and to generate conditional realizations of the transfer function. Complex information about a hydrogeologic system is distilled into a relatively simple but rigorously obtained function that describes the transport behavior of the system between two wells. The resulting transfer functions are valuable in reactive transport models based on traveltime and streamline methods. The information contained in the data, particularly in the case of strong heterogeneity, is not overextended but is fully used. This is the first application of Bayesian geostatistical inversion to transfer functions in hydrogeology but the methodology can be extended to any linear system.

  8. A preliminary deposit model for lithium brines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bradley, Dwight; Munk, LeeAnn; Jochens, Hillary; Hynek, Scott; Labay, Keith A.

    2013-01-01

    This report is part of an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to update existing mineral deposit models and to develop new ones. The global transition away from hydrocarbons toward energy alternatives increases demand for many scarce metals. Among these is lithium, a key component of lithium-ion batteries for electric and hybrid vehicles. Lithium brine deposits account for about three-fourths of the world’s lithium production. Updating an earlier deposit model, we emphasize geologic information that might directly or indirectly help in exploration for lithium brine deposits, or for assessing regions for mineral resource potential. Special attention is given to the best-known deposit in the world—Clayton Valley, Nevada, and to the giant Salar de Atacama, Chile.

  9. Preliminary Multi-Variable Cost Model for Space Telescopes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Hendrichs, Todd

    2010-01-01

    Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. This paper reviews the methodology used to develop space telescope cost models; summarizes recently published single variable models; and presents preliminary results for two and three variable cost models. Some of the findings are that increasing mass reduces cost; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years.

  10. Tidal Response of Preliminary Jupiter Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wahl, Sean M.; Hubbard, William B.; Militzer, Burkhard

    2016-11-01

    In anticipation of improved observational data for Jupiter’s gravitational field, from the Juno spacecraft, we predict the static tidal response for a variety of Jupiter interior models based on ab initio computer simulations of hydrogen-helium mixtures. We calculate hydrostatic-equilibrium gravity terms, using the non-perturbative concentric Maclaurin Spheroid method that eliminates lengthy expansions used in the theory of figures. Our method captures terms arising from the coupled tidal and rotational perturbations, which we find to be important for a rapidly rotating planet like Jupiter. Our predicted static tidal Love number, {k}2=0.5900, is ˜10% larger than previous estimates. The value is, as expected, highly correlated with the zonal harmonic coefficient J 2, and is thus nearly constant when plausible changes are made to the interior structure while holding J 2 fixed at the observed value. We note that the predicted static k 2 might change, due to Jupiter’s dynamical response to the Galilean moons, and find reasons to argue that the change may be detectable—although we do not present here a theory of dynamical tides for highly oblate Jovian planets. An accurate model of Jupiter’s tidal response will be essential for interpreting Juno observations and identifying tidal signals from effects of other interior dynamics of Jupiter’s gravitational field.

  11. Modelling Extortion Racket Systems: Preliminary Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nardin, Luis G.; Andrighetto, Giulia; Székely, Áron; Conte, Rosaria

    Mafias are highly powerful and deeply entrenched organised criminal groups that cause both economic and social damage. Overcoming, or at least limiting, their harmful effects is a societally beneficial objective, which renders its dynamics understanding an objective of both scientific and political interests. We propose an agent-based simulation model aimed at understanding how independent and combined effects of legal and social norm-based processes help to counter mafias. Our results show that legal processes are effective in directly countering mafias by reducing their activities and changing the behaviour of the rest of population, yet they are not able to change people's mind-set that renders the change fragile. When combined with social norm-based processes, however, people's mind-set shifts towards a culture of legality rendering the observed behaviour resilient to change.

  12. Geospatial Interpolation and Mapping of Tropospheric Ozone Pollution Using Geostatistics

    PubMed Central

    Kethireddy, Swatantra R.; Tchounwou, Paul B.; Ahmad, Hafiz A.; Yerramilli, Anjaneyulu; Young, John H.

    2014-01-01

    Tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution is a major problem worldwide, including in the United States of America (USA), particularly during the summer months. Ozone oxidative capacity and its impact on human health have attracted the attention of the scientific community. In the USA, sparse spatial observations for O3 may not provide a reliable source of data over a geo-environmental region. Geostatistical Analyst in ArcGIS has the capability to interpolate values in unmonitored geo-spaces of interest. In this study of eastern Texas O3 pollution, hourly episodes for spring and summer 2012 were selectively identified. To visualize the O3 distribution, geostatistical techniques were employed in ArcMap. Using ordinary Kriging, geostatistical layers of O3 for all the studied hours were predicted and mapped at a spatial resolution of 1 kilometer. A decent level of prediction accuracy was achieved and was confirmed from cross-validation results. The mean prediction error was close to 0, the root mean-standardized-prediction error was close to 1, and the root mean square and average standard errors were small. O3 pollution map data can be further used in analysis and modeling studies. Kriging results and O3 decadal trends indicate that the populace in Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Beaumont-Port Arthur, San Antonio, and Longview are repeatedly exposed to high levels of O3-related pollution, and are prone to the corresponding respiratory and cardiovascular health effects. Optimization of the monitoring network proves to be an added advantage for the accurate prediction of exposure levels. PMID:24434594

  13. Assessment of spatial distribution of fallout radionuclides through geostatistics concept.

    PubMed

    Mabit, L; Bernard, C

    2007-01-01

    After introducing geostatistics concept and its utility in environmental science and especially in Fallout Radionuclide (FRN) spatialisation, a case study for cesium-137 ((137)Cs) redistribution at the field scale using geostatistics is presented. On a Canadian agricultural field, geostatistics coupled with a Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to test three different techniques of interpolation [Ordinary Kriging (OK), Inverse Distance Weighting power one (IDW1) and two (IDW2)] to create a (137)Cs map and to establish a radioisotope budget. Following the optimization of variographic parameters, an experimental semivariogram was developed to determine the spatial dependence of (137)Cs. It was adjusted to a spherical isotropic model with a range of 30 m and a very small nugget effect. This (137)Cs semivariogram showed a good autocorrelation (R(2)=0.91) and was well structured ('nugget-to-sill' ratio of 4%). It also revealed that the sampling strategy was adequate to reveal the spatial correlation of (137)Cs. The spatial redistribution of (137)Cs was estimated by Ordinary Kriging and IDW to produce contour maps. A radioisotope budget was established for the 2.16 ha agricultural field under investigation. It was estimated that around 2 x 10(7)Bq of (137)Cs were missing (around 30% of the total initial fallout) and were exported by physical processes (runoff and erosion processes) from the area under investigation. The cross-validation analysis showed that in the case of spatially structured data, OK is a better interpolation method than IDW1 or IDW2 for the assessment of potential radioactive contamination and/or pollution.

  14. Geospatial interpolation and mapping of tropospheric ozone pollution using geostatistics.

    PubMed

    Kethireddy, Swatantra R; Tchounwou, Paul B; Ahmad, Hafiz A; Yerramilli, Anjaneyulu; Young, John H

    2014-01-10

    Tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution is a major problem worldwide, including in the United States of America (USA), particularly during the summer months. Ozone oxidative capacity and its impact on human health have attracted the attention of the scientific community. In the USA, sparse spatial observations for O3 may not provide a reliable source of data over a geo-environmental region. Geostatistical Analyst in ArcGIS has the capability to interpolate values in unmonitored geo-spaces of interest. In this study of eastern Texas O3 pollution, hourly episodes for spring and summer 2012 were selectively identified. To visualize the O3 distribution, geostatistical techniques were employed in ArcMap. Using ordinary Kriging, geostatistical layers of O3 for all the studied hours were predicted and mapped at a spatial resolution of 1 kilometer. A decent level of prediction accuracy was achieved and was confirmed from cross-validation results. The mean prediction error was close to 0, the root mean-standardized-prediction error was close to 1, and the root mean square and average standard errors were small. O3 pollution map data can be further used in analysis and modeling studies. Kriging results and O3 decadal trends indicate that the populace in Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Beaumont-Port Arthur, San Antonio, and Longview are repeatedly exposed to high levels of O3-related pollution, and are prone to the corresponding respiratory and cardiovascular health effects. Optimization of the monitoring network proves to be an added advantage for the accurate prediction of exposure levels.

  15. Modeling the complete Otto cycle: Preliminary version. [computer programming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zeleznik, F. J.; Mcbride, B. J.

    1977-01-01

    A description is given of the equations and the computer program being developed to model the complete Otto cycle. The program incorporates such important features as: (1) heat transfer, (2) finite combustion rates, (3) complete chemical kinetics in the burned gas, (4) exhaust gas recirculation, and (5) manifold vacuum or supercharging. Changes in thermodynamic, kinetic and transport data as well as model parameters can be made without reprogramming. Preliminary calculations indicate that: (1) chemistry and heat transfer significantly affect composition and performance, (2) there seems to be a strong interaction among model parameters, and (3) a number of cycles must be calculated in order to obtain steady-state conditions.

  16. Modeling the connection between development and evolution: Preliminary report

    SciTech Connect

    Mjolsness, E.; Reinitz, J.; Garrett, C.D.; Sharp, D.H.

    1993-07-29

    In this paper we outline a model which incorporates development processes into an evolutionary frame work. The model consists of three sectors describing development, genetics, and the selective environment. The formulation of models governing each sector uses dynamical grammars to describe processes in which state variables evolve in a quantitative fashion, and the number and type of participating biological entities can change. This program has previously been elaborated for development. Its extension to the other sectors of the model is discussed here and forms the basis for further approximations. A specific implementation of these ideas is described for an idealized model of the evolution of a multicellular organism. While this model doe not describe an actual biological system, it illustrates the interplay of development and evolution. Preliminary results of numerical simulations of this idealized model are presented.

  17. Optimized Field Sampling and Monitoring of Airborne Hazardous Transport Plumes; A Geostatistical Simulation Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, DI-WEN

    2001-11-21

    Airborne hazardous plumes inadvertently released during nuclear/chemical/biological incidents are mostly of unknown composition and concentration until measurements are taken of post-accident ground concentrations from plume-ground deposition of constituents. Unfortunately, measurements often are days post-incident and rely on hazardous manned air-vehicle measurements. Before this happens, computational plume migration models are the only source of information on the plume characteristics, constituents, concentrations, directions of travel, ground deposition, etc. A mobile ''lighter than air'' (LTA) system is being developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory that will be part of the first response in emergency conditions. These interactive and remote unmanned air vehicles will carry light-weight detectors and weather instrumentation to measure the conditions during and after plume release. This requires a cooperative computationally organized, GPS-controlled set of LTA's that self-coordinate around the objectives in an emergency situation in restricted time frames. A critical step before an optimum and cost-effective field sampling and monitoring program proceeds is the collection of data that provides statistically significant information, collected in a reliable and expeditious manner. Efficient aerial arrangements of the detectors taking the data (for active airborne release conditions) are necessary for plume identification, computational 3-dimensional reconstruction, and source distribution functions. This report describes the application of stochastic or geostatistical simulations to delineate the plume for guiding subsequent sampling and monitoring designs. A case study is presented of building digital plume images, based on existing ''hard'' experimental data and ''soft'' preliminary transport modeling results of Prairie Grass Trials Site. Markov Bayes Simulation, a coupled Bayesian/geostatistical methodology, quantitatively combines soft information

  18. Lithological 3D grid model of the Vuonos area built by using geostatistical simulation honoring the 3D fault model and structural trends of the Outokumpu association rocks in Eastern Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laine, Eevaliisa

    2015-04-01

    The Outokumpu mining district - a metallogenic province about 100 km long x 60 km wide - hosts a Palaeoproterozoic sulfide deposit characterized by an unusual lithological association. It is located in the North Karelia Schist Belt , which was thrust on the late Archaean gneissic-granitoid basement of the Karelian craton during the early stages of the Svecofennian Orogeny between 1.92 and 1.87 Ga (Koistinen 1981). Two major tectono-stratigraphic units can be distinguished, a lower, parautochthonous 'Lower Kaleva' unit and an upper, allochthonous 'upper Kaleva' unit or 'Outokumpu allochthon'. The latter consists of tightly-folded deep marine turbiditic mica schists and metagraywackes containing intercalations of black schist, and the Outo¬kumpu assemblage, which comprises ca. 1950 Ma old, serpentinized peridotites surrounded by carbonate-calc-silicate ('skarn')-quartz rocks. The ore body is enclosed in the Outokumpu assemblage, which is thought to be part of a disrupted and incomplete ophiolite complex (Vuollo & Piirainen 1989) that can be traced to the Kainuu schist belt further north where the well-preserved Jormua ophiolite is ex¬posed (Kontinen 1987, Peltonen & Kontinen 2004). Outokumpu can be divided into blocks divided by faults and shear zones (Saalmann and Laine, 2014). The aim of this study was to make a 3D lithological model of a small part of the Outokumpu association rocks in the Vuonos area honoring the 3D fault model built by Saalmann and Laine (2014). The Vuonos study area is also a part of the Outokumpu mining camp area (Aatos et al. 2013, 2014). Fault and shear structures was used in geostatistical gridding and simulation of the lithologies. Several possible realizations of the structural grids, conforming the main lithological trends were built. Accordingly, it was possible to build a 3D structural grid containing information of the distribution of the possible lithologies and an estimation the associated uncertainties. References: Aatos, S

  19. Regional flow duration curves: Geostatistical techniques versus multivariate regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugliese, Alessio; Farmer, William H.; Castellarin, Attilio; Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2016-10-01

    A period-of-record flow duration curve (FDC) represents the relationship between the magnitude and frequency of daily streamflows. Prediction of FDCs is of great importance for locations characterized by sparse or missing streamflow observations. We present a detailed comparison of two methods which are capable of predicting an FDC at ungauged basins: (1) an adaptation of the geostatistical method, Top-kriging, employing a linear weighted average of dimensionless empirical FDCs, standardised with a reference streamflow value; and (2) regional multiple linear regression of streamflow quantiles, perhaps the most common method for the prediction of FDCs at ungauged sites. In particular, Top-kriging relies on a metric for expressing the similarity between catchments computed as the negative deviation of the FDC from a reference streamflow value, which we termed total negative deviation (TND). Comparisons of these two methods are made in 182 largely unregulated river catchments in the southeastern U.S. using a three-fold cross-validation algorithm. Our results reveal that the two methods perform similarly throughout flow-regimes, with average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies 0.566 and 0.662, (0.883 and 0.829 on log-transformed quantiles) for the geostatistical and the linear regression models, respectively. The differences between the reproduction of FDC's occurred mostly for low flows with exceedance probability (i.e. duration) above 0.98.

  20. Regional flow duration curves: Geostatistical techniques versus multivariate regression

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pugliese, Alessio; Farmer, William H.; Castellarin, Attilio; Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2016-01-01

    A period-of-record flow duration curve (FDC) represents the relationship between the magnitude and frequency of daily streamflows. Prediction of FDCs is of great importance for locations characterized by sparse or missing streamflow observations. We present a detailed comparison of two methods which are capable of predicting an FDC at ungauged basins: (1) an adaptation of the geostatistical method, Top-kriging, employing a linear weighted average of dimensionless empirical FDCs, standardised with a reference streamflow value; and (2) regional multiple linear regression of streamflow quantiles, perhaps the most common method for the prediction of FDCs at ungauged sites. In particular, Top-kriging relies on a metric for expressing the similarity between catchments computed as the negative deviation of the FDC from a reference streamflow value, which we termed total negative deviation (TND). Comparisons of these two methods are made in 182 largely unregulated river catchments in the southeastern U.S. using a three-fold cross-validation algorithm. Our results reveal that the two methods perform similarly throughout flow-regimes, with average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies 0.566 and 0.662, (0.883 and 0.829 on log-transformed quantiles) for the geostatistical and the linear regression models, respectively. The differences between the reproduction of FDC's occurred mostly for low flows with exceedance probability (i.e. duration) above 0.98.

  1. Reducing spatial uncertainty in climatic maps through geostatistical analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pesquer, Lluís; Ninyerola, Miquel; Pons, Xavier

    2014-05-01

    Climatic maps from meteorological stations and geographical co-variables can be obtained through correlative models (Ninyerola et al., 2000)*. Nevertheless, the spatial uncertainty of the resulting maps could be reduced. The present work is a new stage over those approaches aiming to study how to obtain better results while characterizing spatial uncertainty. The study area is Catalonia (32000 km2), a region with highly variable relief (0 to 3143 m). We have used 217 stations (321 to 1244 mm) to model the annual precipitation in two steps: 1/ multiple regression using geographical variables (elevation, distance to the coast, latitude, etc) and 2/ refinement of the results by adding the spatial interpolation of the regression residuals with inverse distance weighting (IDW), regularized splines with tension (SPT) or ordinary kriging (OK). Spatial uncertainty analysis is based on an independent subsample (test set), randomly selected in previous works. The main contribution of this work is the analysis of this test set as well as the search for an optimal process of division (split) of the stations in two sets, one used to perform the multiple regression and residuals interpolation (fit set), and another used to compute the quality (test set); optimal division should reduce spatial uncertainty and improve the overall quality. Two methods have been evaluated against classical methods: (random selection RS and leave-one-out cross-validation LOOCV): selection by Euclidian 2D-distance, and selection by anisotropic 2D-distance combined with a 3D-contribution (suitable weighted) from the most representative independent variable. Both methods define a minimum threshold distance, obtained by variogram analysis, between samples. Main preliminary results for LOOCV, RS (average from 10 executions), Euclidian criterion (EU), and for anisotropic criterion (with 1.1 value, UTMY coordinate has a bit more weight than UTMX) combined with 3D criteria (A3D) (1000 factor for elevation

  2. Performance prediction using geostatistics and window reservoir simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Fontanilla, J.P.; Al-Khalawi, A.A.; Johnson, S.G.

    1995-11-01

    This paper is the first window model study in the northern area of a large carbonate reservoir in Saudi Arabia. It describes window reservoir simulation with geostatistics to model uneven water encroachment in the southwest producing area of the northern portion of the reservoir. In addition, this paper describes performance predictions that investigate the sweep efficiency of the current peripheral waterflood. A 50 x 50 x 549 (240 m. x 260 m. x 0.15 m. average grid block size) geological model was constructed with geostatistics software. Conditional simulation was used to obtain spatial distributions of porosity and volume of dolomite. Core data transforms were used to obtain horizontal and vertical permeability distributions. Simple averaging techniques were used to convert the 549-layer geological model to a 50 x 50 x 10 (240 m. x 260 m. x 8 m. average grid block size) window reservoir simulation model. Flux injectors and flux producers were assigned to the outermost grid blocks. Historical boundary flux rates were obtained from a coarsely-ridded full-field model. Pressure distribution, water cuts, GORs, and recent flowmeter data were history matched. Permeability correction factors and numerous parameter adjustments were required to obtain the final history match. The permeability correction factors were based on pressure transient permeability-thickness analyses. The prediction phase of the study evaluated the effects of infill drilling, the use of artificial lifts, workovers, horizontal wells, producing rate constraints, and tight zone development to formulate depletion strategies for the development of this area. The window model will also be used to investigate day-to-day reservoir management problems in this area.

  3. The Use of Geostatistics in the Study of Floral Phenology of Vulpia geniculata (L.) Link

    PubMed Central

    León Ruiz, Eduardo J.; García Mozo, Herminia; Domínguez Vilches, Eugenio; Galán, Carmen

    2012-01-01

    Traditionally phenology studies have been focused on changes through time, but there exist many instances in ecological research where it is necessary to interpolate among spatially stratified samples. The combined use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Geostatistics can be an essential tool for spatial analysis in phenological studies. Geostatistics are a family of statistics that describe correlations through space/time and they can be used for both quantifying spatial correlation and interpolating unsampled points. In the present work, estimations based upon Geostatistics and GIS mapping have enabled the construction of spatial models that reflect phenological evolution of Vulpia geniculata (L.) Link throughout the study area during sampling season. Ten sampling points, scattered troughout the city and low mountains in the “Sierra de Córdoba” were chosen to carry out the weekly phenological monitoring during flowering season. The phenological data were interpolated by applying the traditional geostatitical method of Kriging, which was used to ellaborate weekly estimations of V. geniculata phenology in unsampled areas. Finally, the application of Geostatistics and GIS to create phenological maps could be an essential complement in pollen aerobiological studies, given the increased interest in obtaining automatic aerobiological forecasting maps. PMID:22629169

  4. The use of geostatistics in the study of floral phenology of Vulpia geniculata (L.) link.

    PubMed

    León Ruiz, Eduardo J; García Mozo, Herminia; Domínguez Vilches, Eugenio; Galán, Carmen

    2012-01-01

    Traditionally phenology studies have been focused on changes through time, but there exist many instances in ecological research where it is necessary to interpolate among spatially stratified samples. The combined use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Geostatistics can be an essential tool for spatial analysis in phenological studies. Geostatistics are a family of statistics that describe correlations through space/time and they can be used for both quantifying spatial correlation and interpolating unsampled points. In the present work, estimations based upon Geostatistics and GIS mapping have enabled the construction of spatial models that reflect phenological evolution of Vulpia geniculata (L.) Link throughout the study area during sampling season. Ten sampling points, scattered throughout the city and low mountains in the "Sierra de Córdoba" were chosen to carry out the weekly phenological monitoring during flowering season. The phenological data were interpolated by applying the traditional geostatitical method of Kriging, which was used to elaborate weekly estimations of V. geniculata phenology in unsampled areas. Finally, the application of Geostatistics and GIS to create phenological maps could be an essential complement in pollen aerobiological studies, given the increased interest in obtaining automatic aerobiological forecasting maps.

  5. rasterEngine: an easy-to-use R function for applying complex geostatistical models to raster datasets in a parallel computing environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greenberg, J. A.

    2013-12-01

    As geospatial analyses progress in tandem with increasing availability of large complex geographic data sets and high performance computing (HPC), there is an increasing gap in the ability of end-user tools to take advantage of these advances. Specifically, the practical implementation of complex statistical models on large gridded geographic datasets (e.g. remote sensing analysis, species distribution mapping, topographic transformations, and local neighborhood analyses) currently requires a significant knowledge base. A user must be proficient in the chosen model as well as the nuances of scientific programming, raster data models, memory management, parallel computing, and system design. This is further complicated by the fact that many of the cutting-edge analytical tools were developed for non-geospatial datasets and are not part of standard GIS packages, but are available in scientific computing languages such as R and MATLAB. We present a computing function 'rasterEngine' written in the R scientific computing language and part of the CRAN package 'spatial.tools' with these challenges in mind. The goal of rasterEngine is to allow a user to quickly develop and apply analytical models within the R computing environment to arbitrarily large gridded datasets, taking advantage of available parallel computing resources, and without requiring a deep understanding of HPC and raster data models. We provide several examples of rasterEngine being used to solve common grid based analyses, including remote sensing image analyses, topographic transformations, and species distribution modeling. With each example, the parallel processing performance results are presented.

  6. Geostatistical analysis as applied to two environmental radiometric time series.

    PubMed

    Dowdall, Mark; Lind, Bjørn; Gerland, Sebastian; Rudjord, Anne Liv

    2003-03-01

    This article details the results of an investigation into the application of geostatistical data analysis to two environmental radiometric time series. The data series employed consist of 99Tc values for seaweed (Fucus vesiculosus) and seawater samples taken as part of a marine monitoring program conducted on the coast of northern Norway by the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority. Geostatistical methods were selected in order to provide information on values of the variables at unsampled times and to investigate the temporal correlation exhibited by the data sets. This information is of use in the optimisation of future sampling schemes and for providing information on the temporal behaviour of the variables in question that may not be obtained during a cursory analysis. The results indicate a high degree of temporal correlation within the data sets, the correlation for the seawater and seaweed data being modelled with an exponential and linear function, respectively. The semi-variogram for the seawater data indicates a temporal range of correlation of approximately 395 days with no apparent random component to the overall variance structure and was described best by an exponential function. The temporal structure of the seaweed data was best modelled by a linear function with a small nugget component. Evidence of drift was present in both semi-variograms. Interpolation of the data sets using the fitted models and a simple kriging procedure were compared, using a cross-validation procedure, with simple linear interpolation. Results of this exercise indicate that, for the seawater data, the kriging procedure outperformed the simple interpolation with respect to error distribution and correlation of estimates with actual values. Using the unbounded linear model with the seaweed data produced estimates that were only marginally better than those produced by the simple interpolation.

  7. Introduction to This Special Issue on Geostatistics and Geospatial Techniques in Remote Sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atkinson, Peter; Quattrochi, Dale A.; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The germination of this special Computers & Geosciences (C&G) issue began at the Royal Geographical Society (with the Institute of British Geographers) (RGS-IBG) annual meeting in January 1997 held at the University of Exeter, UK. The snow and cold of the English winter were tempered greatly by warm and cordial discussion of how to stimulate and enhance cooperation on geostatistical and geospatial research in remote sensing 'across the big pond' between UK and US researchers. It was decided that one way forward would be to hold parallel sessions in 1998 on geostatistical and geospatial research in remote sensing at appropriate venues in both the UK and the US. Selected papers given at these sessions would be published as special issues of C&G on the UK side and Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing (PE&RS) on the US side. These issues would highlight the commonality in research on geostatistical and geospatial research in remote sensing on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence, a session on "Geostatistics and Geospatial Techniques for Remote Sensing of Land Surface Processes" was held at the RGS-IBG annual meeting in Guildford, Surrey, UK in January 1998, organized by the Modeling and Advanced Techniques Special Interest Group (MAT SIG) of the Remote Sensing Society (RSS). A similar session was held at the Association of American Geographers (AAG) annual meeting in Boston, Massachusetts in March 1998, sponsored by the AAG's Remote Sensing Specialty Group (RSSG). The 10 papers that make up this issue of C&G, comprise 7 papers from the UK and 3 papers from the LIS. We are both co-editors of each of the journal special issues, with the lead editor of each journal issue being from their respective side of the Atlantic. The special issue of PE&RS (vol. 65) that constitutes the other half of this co-edited journal series was published in early 1999, comprising 6 papers by US authors. We are indebted to the International Association for Mathematical

  8. GEOSTATISTICS FOR WASTE MANAGEMENT: A USER'S MANUEL FOR THE GEOPACK (VERSION 1.0) GEOSTATISTICAL SOFTWARE SYSTEM

    EPA Science Inventory

    A comprehensive, user-friendly geostatistical software system called GEOPACk has been developed. The purpose of this software is to make available the programs necessary to undertake a geostatistical analysis of spatially correlated data. The programs were written so that they ...

  9. Overview and technical and practical aspects for use of geostatistics in hazardous-, toxic-, and radioactive-waste-site investigations

    SciTech Connect

    Bossong, C.R.; Karlinger, M.R.; Troutman, B.M.; Vecchia, A.V.

    1999-10-01

    Technical and practical aspects of applying geostatistics are developed for individuals involved in investigation at hazardous-, toxic-, and radioactive-waste sites. Important geostatistical concepts, such as variograms and ordinary, universal, and indicator kriging, are described in general terms for introductory purposes and in more detail for practical applications. Variogram modeling using measured ground-water elevation data is described in detail to illustrate principles of stationarity, anisotropy, transformations, and cross validation. Several examples of kriging applications are described using ground-water-level elevations, bedrock elevations, and ground-water-quality data. A review of contemporary literature and selected public domain software associated with geostatistics also is provided, as is a discussion of alternative methods for spatial modeling, including inverse distance weighting, triangulation, splines, trend-surface analysis, and simulation.

  10. Multiple Point Geostatistics for automated landform mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karssenberg, D.; Vannametee, E.; Babel, L.; Schuur, J.; Hendriks, M.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2011-12-01

    Land-surface processes are often studied at the level of elementary landform units, e.g. geomorphological units. To avoid expensive and difficult field surveys and to ensure a consistent mapping scheme, automated derivation of these units is desirable. However, automated classification based on two-point statistics of topographical attributes (e.g. semivarigram) is inadequate in reproducing complex, curvilinear landform patterns. Therefore, the spatial structure and configuration of terrain characteristics suitable for landform classification should be based on statistics from multiple points. In this study, a generic automated landform classification routine is developed which is based on Multiple Point Geostatistics (MPG) using information from a field map of geomorphology in a training area and a gridded Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Focus is on classification of geomorphologic units; e.g. alluvial fan, river terrace. The approach is evaluated using data from the French Alps. In the first procedural step, spatial statistics of the geomorphologic units are retrieved from a training data set, consisting of a digital elevation model and a geomorphologic map, created using field observations and 37.5 x 37.5 m2 cells. For each grid cell in the training data set, the geomorphological unit of the grid cell and a set of topographical attributes (i.e. a pattern) of the grid cell is stored in a frequency database. The set of topographical attributes stored is chosen such that it represents criteria used in field mapping. These are, for instance, topographical slope gradient, upstream area, or geomorphological units mapped in the neighborhood of the cell. Continuous information (e.g. slope) is converted to categorical data (slope class), which is required in the MPG approach. The second step is to use the knowledge stored in the frequency database for mapping. The algorithm reads a set of attribute classes from a classification target cell and its surrounding cells taking

  11. Geostatistical Interpolation of Particle-Size Curves in Heterogeneous Aquifers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guadagnini, A.; Menafoglio, A.; Secchi, P.

    2013-12-01

    We address the problem of predicting the spatial field of particle-size curves (PSCs) from measurements associated with soil samples collected at a discrete set of locations within an aquifer system. Proper estimates of the full PSC are relevant to applications related to groundwater hydrology, soil science and geochemistry and aimed at modeling physical and chemical processes occurring in heterogeneous earth systems. Hence, we focus on providing kriging estimates of the entire PSC at unsampled locations. To this end, we treat particle-size curves as cumulative distribution functions, model their densities as functional compositional data and analyze them by embedding these into the Hilbert space of compositional functions endowed with the Aitchison geometry. On this basis, we develop a new geostatistical methodology for the analysis of spatially dependent functional compositional data. Our functional compositional kriging (FCK) approach allows providing predictions at unsampled location of the entire particle-size curve, together with a quantification of the associated uncertainty, by fully exploiting both the functional form of the data and their compositional nature. This is a key advantage of our approach with respect to traditional methodologies, which treat only a set of selected features (e.g., quantiles) of PSCs. Embedding the full PSC into a geostatistical analysis enables one to provide a complete characterization of the spatial distribution of lithotypes in a reservoir, eventually leading to improved predictions of soil hydraulic attributes through pedotransfer functions as well as of soil geochemical parameters which are relevant in sorption/desorption and cation exchange processes. We test our new method on PSCs sampled along a borehole located within an alluvial aquifer near the city of Tuebingen, Germany. The quality of FCK predictions is assessed through leave-one-out cross-validation. A comparison between hydraulic conductivity estimates obtained

  12. Preliminary evaluation of a lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) bioenergetics model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Pothoven, Steven A.; Schneeberger, Philip J.; O'Connor, Daniel V.; Brandt, Stephen B.

    2005-01-01

    We conducted a preliminary evaluation of a lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) bioenergetics model by applying the model to size-at-age data for lake whitefish from northern Lake Michigan. We then compared estimates of gross growth efficiency (GGE) from our bioenergetis model with previously published estimates of GGE for bloater (C. hoyi) in Lake Michigan and for lake whitefish in Quebec. According to our model, the GGE of Lake Michigan lake whitefish decreased from 0.075 to 0.02 as age increased from 2 to 5 years. In contrast, the GGE of lake whitefish in Quebec inland waters decreased from 0.12 to 0.05 for the same ages. When our swimming-speed submodel was replaced with a submodel that had been used for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in Lake Michigan and an observed predator energy density for Lake Michigan lake whitefish was employed, our model predicted that the GGE of Lake Michigan lake whitefish decreased from 0.12 to 0.04 as age increased from 2 to 5 years.

  13. Preliminary deformation model for National Seismic Hazard map of Indonesia

    SciTech Connect

    Meilano, Irwan; Gunawan, Endra; Sarsito, Dina; Prijatna, Kosasih; Abidin, Hasanuddin Z.; Susilo,; Efendi, Joni

    2015-04-24

    Preliminary deformation model for the Indonesia’s National Seismic Hazard (NSH) map is constructed as the block rotation and strain accumulation function at the elastic half-space. Deformation due to rigid body motion is estimated by rotating six tectonic blocks in Indonesia. The interseismic deformation due to subduction is estimated by assuming coupling on subduction interface while deformation at active fault is calculated by assuming each of the fault‘s segment slips beneath a locking depth or in combination with creeping in a shallower part. This research shows that rigid body motion dominates the deformation pattern with magnitude more than 15 mm/year, except in the narrow area near subduction zones and active faults where significant deformation reach to 25 mm/year.

  14. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Findings

    SciTech Connect

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-07-16

    Often the methodologies for assessing proliferation risk are focused around the inherent vulnerability of nuclear energy systems and associated safeguards. For example an accepted approach involves ways to measure the intrinsic and extrinsic barriers to potential proliferation. This paper describes preliminary investigation into non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve proliferation assessment and advance the approach to assessing nuclear material diversion. Proliferation resistance assessment, safeguard assessments and related studies typically create technical information about the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to diversion of nuclear material. The purpose of this research project is to find ways to integrate social information with technical information by explicitly considering the role of culture, groups and/or individuals to factors that impact the possibility of proliferation. When final, this work is expected to describe and demonstrate the utility of social science modeling in proliferation and proliferation risk assessments.

  15. Susitna Hydroelectric Project: terrestrial environmental workshop and preliminary simulation model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Everitt, Robert R.; Sonntag, Nicholas C.; Auble, Gregory T.; Roelle, James E.; Gazey, William

    1982-01-01

    The technical feasibility, economic viability, and environmental impacts of a hydroelectric development project in the Susitna River Basin are being studied by Acres American, Inc. on behalf of the Alaska Power Authority. As part of these studies, Acres American recently contracted LGL Alaska Research Associates, Inc. to coordinate the terrestrial environmental studies being performed by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game and, as subcontractors to LGL, several University of Alaska research groups. LGL is responsible for further quantifying the potential impacts of the project on terrestrial wildlife and vegetation, and for developing a plan to mitigate adverse impacts on the terrestrial environment. The impact assessment and mitigation plan will be included as part of a license application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) scheduled for the first quarter of 1983. The quantification of impacts, mitigation planning, and design of future research is being organized using a computer simulation modelling approach. Through a series of workshops attended by researchers, resource managers, and policy-makers, a computer model is being developed and refined for use in the quantification of impacts on terrestrial wildlife and vegetation, and for evaluating different mitigation measures such as habitat enhancement and the designation of replacement lands to be managed by wildlife habitat. This report describes the preliminary model developed at the first workshop held August 23 -27, 1982 in Anchorage.

  16. Mine planning and emission control strategies using geostatistics

    SciTech Connect

    Martino, F.; Kim, Y.C.

    1983-03-01

    This paper reviews the past four years' research efforts performed jointly by the University of Arizona and the Homer City Owners in which geostatistics were applied to solve various problems associated with coal characterization, mine planning, and development of emission control strategies. Because geostatistics is the only technique which can quantify the degree of confidence associated with a given estimate (or prediction), it played an important role throughout the research efforts. Through geostatistics, it was learned that there is an urgent need for closely spaced sample information, if short-term coal quality predictions are to be made for mine planning purposes.

  17. Geostatistics, remote sensing and precision farming.

    PubMed

    Mulla, D J

    1997-01-01

    Precision farming is possible today because of advances in farming technology, procedures for mapping and interpolating spatial patterns, and geographic information systems for overlaying and interpreting several soil, landscape and crop attributes. The key component of precision farming is the map showing spatial patterns in field characteristics. Obtaining information for this map is often achieved by soil sampling. This approach, however, can be cost-prohibitive for grain crops. Soil sampling strategies can be simplified by use of auxiliary data provided by satellite or aerial photo imagery. This paper describes geostatistical methods for estimating spatial patterns in soil organic matter, soil test phosphorus and wheat grain yield from a combination of Thematic Mapper imaging and soil sampling.

  18. Sand transport on Mars: Preliminary results from models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greeley, R.; Anderson, F. S.; Blumberg, D.; Lo, E.; Xu, P.; Pollack, J.

    1993-01-01

    Most studies of active aeolian processes on Mars have focused on dust, i.e., particles approximately 1 micron in diameter that are transported in suspension by wind. The presence of sand dunes on Mars indicates that larger grains (approximately greater than 60 microns, transported primarily in saltation) are also present. Although indirect evidence suggests that some dunes may be active, definitive evidence is lacking. Nonetheless, numerous studies demonstrate that sand is substantially easier to transport by wind than dust, and it is reasonable to infer that sand transportation in saltation occurs under present Martian conditions. In order to assess potential source regions, transportation pathways, and sites of deposition for sand on Mars, an iterative sand transport algorithm was developed that is based on the Mars General Circulation Model of Pollack et al. The results of the dust transport model are then compared with observed surface features, such as dune field locations observed on images, and surficial deposits as inferred from Viking IRTM observations. Preliminary results suggest that the north polar dune fields in the vicinity of 270 degrees W, 70 degrees N originated from weathered polar layered plains centered at 280 degrees W, 85 degrees N, and that Thaumasia Fossae, southern Hellas Planitia, and the area west of Hellespontus Montes are sand depositional sites. Examples of transportation 'corridors' include a westward pathway in the latitudinal band 35 degrees N to 45 degrees N, and a pathway southward from Solis Planum to Thaumasia Fossae, among others.

  19. Novel Geostatistical Characterization of the Borden Aquifer, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maghrebi, M.; Jankovic, I.; Allen-King, R. M.; Rabideau, A. J.; Weissmann, G. S.

    2012-12-01

    Geostatistical (spatial) characterization of aquifer properties (hydraulic conductivity and sorption distribution coefficient) is the basis for development of contaminant transport models including stochastic models. Large datasets are required for complete spatial analysis of aquifer properties. The process of collecting the required field data is labor intensive and expensive. Because of limited data availability, spatial analysis is traditionally limited to 2-point overall covariance/variogram analysis. Additional assumptions, not supported by field data, are adopted to develop contaminant transport models. For example, hydraulic conductivity is often modeled as a MultiGaussian random field. A very large dataset of aquifer properties was collected and analyzed for the Borden aquifer, Canada. This is accomplished by exposing 15 panels in a sand quarry during our summer 2010 field study. The sedimentary facies from these 15 panels were then mapped using high-resolution photography, terrestrial Lidar images with field descriptions (Pickel, A.C. et al, Outcrop Analog Analysis of Lithofacies Distributions within Borden Aquifer Sediments, Ontario, CA, AGU 2011 Fall meeting, Poster ID: H51H-1297). The mapped images enable us to determine the three-dimensional positions of hydrofacies at the site and to classify these hydrofacies. Hydrofacies were classified into 6 general material groups with distinct magnitude of hydraulic conductivity and sorption distribution coefficient. The resulting dataset contains the information of 3D point coordinates and the group indices for approximately 3 million points. In order to perform the spatial analysis of this dataset, computer code GSLIB was parallelized with distributed and shared-memory directives and used to compute indicator semi-variograms of six material groups. While this does not constitute a full statistical analysis of the formation (multi-point and/or higher order correlations would be necessary for such analysis

  20. Geostatistical inversion of transient moment equations of groundwater flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riva, M.; Guadagnini, A.; Neuman, S. P.; Bianchi Janetti, E.; Malama, B.

    2009-04-01

    We present a methodology for conditioning estimates of hydraulic heads and fluxes and their associated uncertainty on information about transmissivity, T , and hydraulic heads, h, collected within a randomly heterogeneous aquifer under transient conditions. Our approach is based on recursive finite-element approximations of exact nonlocal first and second conditional moment equations. We present a nonlinear geostatistical inverse algorithm for transient groundwater flow that allows estimating jointly the spatial variability of log-transmissivity, Y = ln T, the underlying variogram and its parameters, and the variance-covariance of the estimates. Log-transmissivity is parameterized geostatistically based on measured values at discrete locations and unknown values at discrete "pilot points." While prior pilot point values are obtained by generalized kriging, posterior estimates at pilot points are obtained by history matching of transient mean flow against values of hydraulic head collected during a pumping test. Parameters are then projected onto a computational grid by kriging. Prior information on hydraulic properties is included in the optimization process via a suitable regularization term which is included in the objective function to be minimized. The weight of the regularization term, hydraulic and unknown variogram parameters are then estimated by maximum likelihood calibration. The main features of the methodology are explored by means of a synthetic example. As alternative flow models we consider (a) a second-order and (b) a lower-order closure of the mean transient flow equation and assess the ability of these models at capturing the parameters of the estimated log-transmissivity variogram. With the aid of formal model selection criteria we associate each mean flow model and different sets of tested variogram parameters with a weight, or posterior probability, representing their relative degrees of likelihood. Our findings suggest that the weight of the

  1. Geostatistics for spatial genetic structures: study of wild populations of perennial ryegrass.

    PubMed

    Monestiez, P; Goulard, M; Charmet, G

    1994-04-01

    Methods based on geostatistics were applied to quantitative traits of agricultural interest measured on a collection of 547 wild populations of perennial ryegrass in France. The mathematical background of these methods, which resembles spatial autocorrelation analysis, is briefly described. When a single variable is studied, the spatial structure analysis is similar to spatial autocorrelation analysis, and a spatial prediction method, called "kriging", gives a filtered map of the spatial pattern over all the sampled area. When complex interactions of agronomic traits with different evaluation sites define a multivariate structure for the spatial analysis, geostatistical methods allow the spatial variations to be broken down into two main spatial structures with ranges of 120 km and 300 km, respectively. The predicted maps that corresponded to each range were interpreted as a result of the isolation-by-distance model and as a consequence of selection by environmental factors. Practical collecting methodology for breeders may be derived from such spatial structures.

  2. Incorporating reservoir heterogeneity with geostatistics to investigate waterflood recoveries

    SciTech Connect

    Wolcott, D.S. ); Chopra, A.K. )

    1993-03-01

    This paper presents an investigation of infill drilling performance and reservoir continuity with geostatistics and a reservoir simulator. The geostatistical technique provides many possible realizations and realistic descriptions of reservoir heterogeneity. Correlation between recovery efficiency and thickness of individual sand subunits is shown. Additional recovery from infill drilling results from thin, discontinuous subunits. The technique may be applied to variations in continuity for other sandstone reservoirs.

  3. Topsoil moisture mapping using geostatistical techniques under different Mediterranean climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Murillo, J F; Hueso-González, P; Ruiz-Sinoga, J D

    2017-04-06

    Soil mapping has been considered as an important factor in the widening of Soil Science and giving response to many different environmental questions. Geostatistical techniques, through kriging and co-kriging techniques, have made possible to improve the understanding of eco-geomorphologic variables, e.g., soil moisture. This study is focused on mapping of topsoil moisture using geostatistical techniques under different Mediterranean climatic conditions (humid, dry and semiarid) in three small watersheds and considering topography and soil properties as key factors. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with a resolution of 1×1m was derived from a topographical survey as well as soils were sampled to analyzed soil properties controlling topsoil moisture, which was measured during 4-years. Afterwards, some topography attributes were derived from the DEM, the soil properties analyzed in laboratory, and the topsoil moisture was modeled for the entire watersheds applying three geostatistical techniques: i) ordinary kriging; ii) co-kriging considering as co-variate topography attributes; and iii) co-kriging ta considering as co-variates topography attributes and gravel content. The results indicated topsoil moisture was more accurately mapped in the dry and semiarid watersheds when co-kriging procedure was performed. The study is a contribution to improve the efficiency and accuracy of studies about the Mediterranean eco-geomorphologic system and soil hydrology in field conditions.

  4. Application of a computationally efficient geostatistical approach to characterizing variably spaced water-table data

    SciTech Connect

    Quinn, J.J.

    1996-02-01

    Geostatistical analysis of hydraulic head data is useful in producing unbiased contour plots of head estimates and relative errors. However, at most sites being characterized, monitoring wells are generally present at different densities, with clusters of wells in some areas and few wells elsewhere. The problem that arises when kriging data at different densities is in achieving adequate resolution of the grid while maintaining computational efficiency and working within software limitations. For the site considered, 113 data points were available over a 14-mi{sup 2} study area, including 57 monitoring wells within an area of concern of 1.5 mi{sup 2}. Variogram analyses of the data indicate a linear model with a negligible nugget effect. The geostatistical package used in the study allows a maximum grid of 100 by 100 cells. Two-dimensional kriging was performed for the entire study area with a 500-ft grid spacing, while the smaller zone was modeled separately with a 100-ft spacing. In this manner, grid cells for the dense area and the sparse area remained small relative to the well separation distances, and the maximum dimensions of the program were not exceeded. The spatial head results for the detailed zone were then nested into the regional output by use of a graphical, object-oriented database that performed the contouring of the geostatistical output. This study benefitted from the two-scale approach and from very fine geostatistical grid spacings relative to typical data separation distances. The combining of the sparse, regional results with those from the finer-resolution area of concern yielded contours that honored the actual data at every measurement location. The method applied in this study can also be used to generate reproducible, unbiased representations of other types of spatial data.

  5. Preliminary Study of a Model Rotor in Descent

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McAlister, K. W.; Tung, C.; Sharpe, D. L.; Huang, S.; Hendley, E. M.

    2000-01-01

    Within a program designed to develop experimental techniques for measuring the trajectory and structure of vortices trailing from the tips of rotor blades, the present preliminary study focuses on a method for quantifying the trajectory of the trailing vortex during descent flight conditions. This study also presents rotor loads and blade surface pressures for a range of tip-path plane angles and Mach numbers. Blade pressures near the leading edge and along the outer radius are compared with data obtained on the same model rotor, but in open jet facilities. A triangulation procedure based on two directable laser-light sheets, each containing an embedded reference, proved effective in defining the spatial coordinates of the trailing vortex. When interrogating a cross section of the flow that contains several trailing vortices, the greatest clarity was found to result when the flow is uniformly seeded. Surface pressure responses during blade-vortex interactions appeared equally sensitive near the leading edge and along the outer portion of the blade, but diminished rapidly as the distance along the blade chord increased. The pressure response was virtually independent of whether the tip-path plane angle was obtained through shaft tilt or cyclic pitch. Although the shape and frequency of the pressure perturbations on the advancing blade during blade-vortex interaction are similar to those obtained in open-jet facilities, the angle of the tip-path plane may need to be lower than the range covered in this study.

  6. Geostatistical mapping of effluent-affected sediment distribution on the Palos Verdes shelf

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Murray, C.J.; Lee, H.J.; Hampton, M.A.

    2002-01-01

    Geostatistical techniques were used to study the spatial continuity of the thickness of effluent-affected sediment in the offshore Palos Verdes Margin area. The thickness data were measured directly from cores and indirectly from high-frequency subbottom profiles collected over the Palos Verdes Margin. Strong spatial continuity of the sediment thickness data was identified, with a maximum range of correlation in excess of 1.4 km. The spatial correlation showed a marked anisotropy, and was more than twice as continuous in the alongshore direction as in the cross-shelf direction. Sequential indicator simulation employing models fit to the thickness data variograms was used to map the distribution of the sediment, and to quantify the uncertainty in those estimates. A strong correlation between sediment thickness data and measurements of the mass of the contaminant p,p???-DDE per unit area was identified. A calibration based on the bivariate distribution of the thickness and p,p???-DDE data was applied using Markov-Bayes indicator simulation to extend the geostatistical study and map the contamination levels in the sediment. Integrating the map grids produced by the geostatistical study of the two variables indicated that 7.8 million m3 of effluent-affected sediment exist in the map area, containing approximately 61-72 Mg (metric tons) of p,p???-DDE. Most of the contaminated sediment (about 85% of the sediment and 89% of the p,p???-DDE) occurs in water depths < 100 m. The geostatistical study also indicated that the samples available for mapping are well distributed and the uncertainty of the estimates of the thickness and contamination level of the sediments is lowest in areas where the contaminated sediment is most prevalent. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A geostatistical approach to predicting sulfur content in the Pittsburgh coal bed

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Watson, W.D.; Ruppert, L.F.; Bragg, L.J.; Tewalt, S.J.

    2001-01-01

    The US Geological Survey (USGS) is completing a national assessment of coal resources in the five top coal-producing regions in the US. Point-located data provide measurements on coal thickness and sulfur content. The sample data and their geologic interpretation represent the most regionally complete and up-to-date assessment of what is known about top-producing US coal beds. The sample data are analyzed using a combination of geologic and Geographic Information System (GIS) models to estimate tonnages and qualities of the coal beds. Traditionally, GIS practitioners use contouring to represent geographical patterns of "similar" data values. The tonnage and grade of coal resources are then assessed by using the contour lines as references for interpolation. An assessment taken to this point is only indicative of resource quantity and quality. Data users may benefit from a statistical approach that would allow them to better understand the uncertainty and limitations of the sample data. To develop a quantitative approach, geostatistics were applied to the data on coal sulfur content from samples taken in the Pittsburgh coal bed (located in the eastern US, in the southwestern part of the state of Pennsylvania, and in adjoining areas in the states of Ohio and West Virginia). Geostatistical methods that account for regional and local trends were applied to blocks 2.7 mi (4.3 km) on a side. The data and geostatistics support conclusions concerning the average sulfur content and its degree of reliability at regional- and economic-block scale over the large, contiguous part of the Pittsburgh outcrop, but not to a mine scale. To validate the method, a comparison was made with the sulfur contents in sample data taken from 53 coal mines located in the study area. The comparison showed a high degree of similarity between the sulfur content in the mine samples and the sulfur content represented by the geostatistically derived contours. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

  8. Geostatistical mapping of effluent-affected sediment distribution on the Palos Verdes Shelf

    SciTech Connect

    Murray, Christopher J. ); Lee, H J.; Hampton, M A.

    2001-12-01

    Geostatistical techniques were used to study the spatial continuity of the thickness of effluent-affected sediment in the offshore Palos Verdes margin area. The thickness data were measured directly from cores and indirectly from high-frequency subbottom profiles collected over the Palos Verdes Margin. Strong spatial continuity of the sediment thickness data was identified, with a maximum range of correlation in excess of 1.4 km. The spatial correlation showed a marked anisotropy, and was more than twice as continuous in the alongshore direction as in the cross-shelf direction. Sequential indicator simulation employing models fit to the thickness data variograms was used to map the distribution of the sediment, and to quantify the uncertainty in those estimates. A strong correlation between sediment thickness data and measurements of the mass of the contaminant p,p?-DDE per unit area was identified. A calibration based on the bivariate distribution of the thickness and p,p?-DDE data was applied using Markov-Bayes indicator simulation to extend the geostatistical study and map the contamination levels in the sediment. Integrating the map grids produced by the geostatistical study of the two variables indicated that 7.8 million cubic meters of effluent-affected sediment exist in the map area, containing approximately 61 to 72 Mg (metric tons) of p,p?-DDE. Most of the contaminated sediment (about 85% of the sediment and 89% of the p,p?-DDE) occurs in water depths less than 100 m. The geostatistical study also indicated that the samples available for mapping are well distributed and the uncertainty of the estimates of the thickness and contamination level of the sediments is lowest in areas where the contaminated sediment is most prevalent.

  9. Application of Bayesian geostatistics for evaluation of mass discharge uncertainty at contaminated sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troldborg, Mads; Nowak, Wolfgang; Lange, Ida V.; Santos, Marta C.; Binning, Philip J.; Bjerg, Poul L.

    2012-09-01

    Mass discharge estimates are increasingly being used when assessing risks of groundwater contamination and designing remedial systems at contaminated sites. Such estimates are, however, rather uncertain as they integrate uncertain spatial distributions of both concentration and groundwater flow. Here a geostatistical simulation method for quantifying the uncertainty of the mass discharge across a multilevel control plane is presented. The method accounts for (1) heterogeneity of both the flow field and the concentration distribution through Bayesian geostatistics, (2) measurement uncertainty, and (3) uncertain source zone and transport parameters. The method generates conditional realizations of the spatial flow and concentration distribution. An analytical macrodispersive transport solution is employed to simulate the mean concentration distribution, and a geostatistical model of the Box-Cox transformed concentration data is used to simulate observed deviations from this mean solution. By combining the flow and concentration realizations, a mass discharge probability distribution is obtained. The method has the advantage of avoiding the heavy computational burden of three-dimensional numerical flow and transport simulation coupled with geostatistical inversion. It may therefore be of practical relevance to practitioners compared to existing methods that are either too simple or computationally demanding. The method is demonstrated on a field site contaminated with chlorinated ethenes. For this site, we show that including a physically meaningful concentration trend and the cosimulation of hydraulic conductivity and hydraulic gradient across the transect helps constrain the mass discharge uncertainty. The number of sampling points required for accurate mass discharge estimation and the relative influence of different data types on mass discharge uncertainty is discussed.

  10. Technology demonstration: geostatistical and hydrologic analysis of salt areas. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems

    SciTech Connect

    Doctor, P.G.; Oberlander, P.L.; Rice, W.A.; Devary, J.L.; Nelson, R.W.; Tucker, P.E.

    1982-09-01

    The Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI) requested Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to: (1) use geostatistical analyses to evaluate the adequacy of hydrologic data from three salt regions, each of which contains a potential nuclear waste repository site; and (2) demonstrate a methodology that allows quantification of the value of additional data collection. The three regions examined are the Paradox Basin in Utah, the Permian Basin in Texas, and the Mississippi Study Area. Additional and new data became available to ONWI during and following these analyses; therefore, this report must be considered a methodology demonstration here would apply as illustrated had the complete data sets been available. A combination of geostatistical and hydrologic analyses was used for this demonstration. Geostatistical analyses provided an optimal estimate of the potentiometric surface from the available data, a measure of the uncertainty of that estimate, and a means for selecting and evaluating the location of future data. The hydrologic analyses included the calculation of transmissivities, flow paths, travel times, and ground-water flow rates from hypothetical repository sites. Simulation techniques were used to evaluate the effect of optimally located future data on the potentiometric surface, flow lines, travel times, and flow rates. Data availability, quality, quantity, and conformance with model assumptions differed in each of the salt areas. Report highlights for the three locations are given.

  11. The role of geostatistics in medical geology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goovaerts, Pierre

    2014-05-01

    Since its development in the mining industry, geostatistics has emerged as the primary tool for spatial data analysis in various fields, ranging from earth and atmospheric sciences, to agriculture, soil science, remote sensing, and more recently environmental exposure assessment. In the last few years, these tools have been tailored to the field of medical geography or spatial epidemiology, which is concerned with the study of spatial patterns of disease incidence and mortality and the identification of potential 'causes' of disease, such as environmental exposure, diet and unhealthy behaviors, economic or socio-demographic factors. On the other hand, medical geology is an emerging interdisciplinary scientific field studying the relationship between natural geological factors and their effects on human and animal health. This paper provides an introduction to the field of medical geology with an overview of geostatistical methods available for the analysis of geological and health data. Key concepts are illustrated using the mapping of groundwater arsenic concentrations across eleven Michigan counties and the exploration of its relationship to the incidence of prostate cancer at the township level. Arsenic in drinking-water is a major problem and has received much attention because of the large human population exposed and the extremely high concentrations (e.g. 600 to 700 μg/L) recorded in many instances. Few studies have however assessed the risks associated with exposure to low levels of arsenic (say < 50 μg/L) most commonly found in drinking water in the United States. In the Michigan thumb region, arsenopyrite (up to 7% As by weight) has been identified in the bedrock of the Marshall Sandstone aquifer, one of the region's most productive aquifers. Epidemiologic studies have suggested a possible associationbetween exposure to inorganic arsenic and prostate cancer mortality, including a study of populations residing in Utah. The information available for the

  12. Approaches in highly parameterized inversion: bgaPEST, a Bayesian geostatistical approach implementation with PEST: documentation and instructions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fienen, Michael N.; D'Oria, Marco; Doherty, John E.; Hunt, Randall J.

    2013-01-01

    The application bgaPEST is a highly parameterized inversion software package implementing the Bayesian Geostatistical Approach in a framework compatible with the parameter estimation suite PEST. Highly parameterized inversion refers to cases in which parameters are distributed in space or time and are correlated with one another. The Bayesian aspect of bgaPEST is related to Bayesian probability theory in which prior information about parameters is formally revised on the basis of the calibration dataset used for the inversion. Conceptually, this approach formalizes the conditionality of estimated parameters on the specific data and model available. The geostatistical component of the method refers to the way in which prior information about the parameters is used. A geostatistical autocorrelation function is used to enforce structure on the parameters to avoid overfitting and unrealistic results. Bayesian Geostatistical Approach is designed to provide the smoothest solution that is consistent with the data. Optionally, users can specify a level of fit or estimate a balance between fit and model complexity informed by the data. Groundwater and surface-water applications are used as examples in this text, but the possible uses of bgaPEST extend to any distributed parameter applications.

  13. Validation of NDVI/LAI Empirical Model to Force a Pasture Growth Model: Preliminary Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandre, C.; Lajoie, G.; Tillard, E.; Salgado, P.

    2016-08-01

    Estimating forage biomass is nowadays essential for a good farm management. To answer to this problem we can use mathematic models that use meteorological, soil, grass data. However, in specifics territories as Reunion Island, they are not efficient. That is why we want to force this kind of model to improve the biomass prediction. The Leaf Area Index (LAI) is one parameter used in growth models. Estimate this parameter from satellite images could a solution to predict better the forage biomass. Preliminary results show a strong relation between LAI and NDVI (Normalized Vegetation Index).

  14. Air Quality Modeling Technical Support Document for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS Preliminary Interstate Transport Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    In this technical support document (TSD) EPA describes the air quality modeling performed to support the 2015 ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) preliminary interstate transport assessment Notice of Data Availability (NODA).

  15. Hydrogen-burn survival: preliminary thermal model and test results

    SciTech Connect

    McCulloch, W.H.; Ratzel, A.C.; Kempka, S.N.; Furgal, D.T.; Aragon, J.J.

    1982-08-01

    This report documents preliminary Hydrogen Burn Survival (HBS) Program experimental and analytical work conducted through February 1982. The effects of hydrogen deflagrations on safety-related equipment in nuclear power plant containment buildings are considered. Preliminary results from hydrogen deflagration experiments in the Sandia Variable Geometry Experimental System (VGES) are presented and analytical predictions for these tests are compared and discussed. Analytical estimates of component thermal responses to hydrogen deflagrations in the upper and lower compartments of an ice condenser, pressurized water reactor are also presented.

  16. Kriging in the Shadows: Geostatistical Interpolation for Remote Sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rossi, Richard E.; Dungan, Jennifer L.; Beck, Louisa R.

    1994-01-01

    It is often useful to estimate obscured or missing remotely sensed data. Traditional interpolation methods, such as nearest-neighbor or bilinear resampling, do not take full advantage of the spatial information in the image. An alternative method, a geostatistical technique known as indicator kriging, is described and demonstrated using a Landsat Thematic Mapper image in southern Chiapas, Mexico. The image was first classified into pasture and nonpasture land cover. For each pixel that was obscured by cloud or cloud shadow, the probability that it was pasture was assigned by the algorithm. An exponential omnidirectional variogram model was used to characterize the spatial continuity of the image for use in the kriging algorithm. Assuming a cutoff probability level of 50%, the error was shown to be 17% with no obvious spatial bias but with some tendency to categorize nonpasture as pasture (overestimation). While this is a promising result, the method's practical application in other missing data problems for remotely sensed images will depend on the amount and spatial pattern of the unobscured pixels and missing pixels and the success of the spatial continuity model used.

  17. An interactive Bayesian geostatistical inverse protocol for hydraulic tomography

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fienen, Michael N.; Clemo, Tom; Kitanidis, Peter K.

    2008-01-01

    Hydraulic tomography is a powerful technique for characterizing heterogeneous hydrogeologic parameters. An explicit trade-off between characterization based on measurement misfit and subjective characterization using prior information is presented. We apply a Bayesian geostatistical inverse approach that is well suited to accommodate a flexible model with the level of complexity driven by the data and explicitly considering uncertainty. Prior information is incorporated through the selection of a parameter covariance model characterizing continuity and providing stability. Often, discontinuities in the parameter field, typically caused by geologic contacts between contrasting lithologic units, necessitate subdivision into zones across which there is no correlation among hydraulic parameters. We propose an interactive protocol in which zonation candidates are implied from the data and are evaluated using cross validation and expert knowledge. Uncertainty introduced by limited knowledge of dynamic regional conditions is mitigated by using drawdown rather than native head values. An adjoint state formulation of MODFLOW-2000 is used to calculate sensitivities which are used both for the solution to the inverse problem and to guide protocol decisions. The protocol is tested using synthetic two-dimensional steady state examples in which the wells are located at the edge of the region of interest.

  18. Geostatistical prediction of stream-flow regime in southeastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugliese, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio; Archfield, Stacey; Farmer, William

    2015-04-01

    similar performances independently of the interpretation of the curves (i.e. period-of-record/annual, or complete/seasonal) or Q* (MAF or MAP*); at -site performances are satisfactory or good (i.e. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency NSE ranges from 0.60 to 0.90 for cross-validated FDCs, depending on the model setting), while the overall performance at regional scale indicates that OK and TK are associated with smaller BIAS and RMSE relative to the six benchmark procedures. Acknowledgements: We thankfully acknowledge Alessia Bononi and Antonio Liguori for their preliminary analyses and Jon O. Skøien and Edzer Pebesma for their helpful assistance with R-packages rtop and gstat. The study is part of the research activities carried out by the working group: Anthropogenic and Climatic Controls on WateR AvailabilitY (ACCuRAcY) of Panta Rhei - Everything Flows Change in Hydrology and Society (IAHS Scientific Decade 2013-2022). References Pugliese, A., A. Castellarin, A., Brath (2014): Geostatistical prediction of flow-duration curves in an index-flow framework, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3801-3816,doi:10.5194/hess-18-3801-2014. Castiglioni, S., A. Castellarin, A. Montanari (2009): Prediction of low-flow indices in ungauged basins through physiographical space-based interpolation, Journal of Hydrology, 378, 272-280.

  19. A Bayesian geostatistical approach for evaluating the uncertainty of contaminant mass discharges from point sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troldborg, M.; Nowak, W.; Binning, P. J.; Bjerg, P. L.

    2012-12-01

    Estimates of mass discharge (mass/time) are increasingly being used when assessing risks of groundwater contamination and designing remedial systems at contaminated sites. Mass discharge estimates are, however, prone to rather large uncertainties as they integrate uncertain spatial distributions of both concentration and groundwater flow velocities. For risk assessments or any other decisions that are being based on mass discharge estimates, it is essential to address these uncertainties. We present a novel Bayesian geostatistical approach for quantifying the uncertainty of the mass discharge across a multilevel control plane. The method decouples the flow and transport simulation and has the advantage of avoiding the heavy computational burden of three-dimensional numerical flow and transport simulation coupled with geostatistical inversion. It may therefore be of practical relevance to practitioners compared to existing methods that are either too simple or computationally demanding. The method is based on conditional geostatistical simulation and accounts for i) heterogeneity of both the flow field and the concentration distribution through Bayesian geostatistics (including the uncertainty in covariance functions), ii) measurement uncertainty, and iii) uncertain source zone geometry and transport parameters. The method generates multiple equally likely realizations of the spatial flow and concentration distribution, which all honour the measured data at the control plane. The flow realizations are generated by analytical co-simulation of the hydraulic conductivity and the hydraulic gradient across the control plane. These realizations are made consistent with measurements of both hydraulic conductivity and head at the site. An analytical macro-dispersive transport solution is employed to simulate the mean concentration distribution across the control plane, and a geostatistical model of the Box-Cox transformed concentration data is used to simulate observed

  20. Use of geostatistics in planning optimum drilling program

    SciTech Connect

    Ghose S. )

    1989-08-01

    Application of geostatistics in the natural resources industry is well established. In a typical process of estimation, the statistically dependent geological data are used to predict the characteristics of a deposit. The estimator used is the best linear unbiased estimator (or BLUE), and a numerical factor of confidence is also provided. The natural inhomogeneity and anisotropy of a deposit are also quantified with preciseness. Drilling is the most reliable way of obtaining data for mining and related industries. However, it is often difficult to decide what is the optimum number of drill holes necessary for evaluation. In this paper, sequential measures of percent variation at 95% confidence level of a geological variable have been used to decipher economically optimum drilling density. A coal reserve model has been used to illustrate the method and findings. Fictitious drilling data were added (within the domain of population characteristics) in stages, to obtain a point of stability, beyond which the gain was significant (diminishing marginal benefit). The final relations are established by graphically projecting and comparing two variables - cost and precision. By mapping the percent variation at each stage, the localized areas of discrepancies can be identified. These are the locations where additional drilling is needed. The system can be controlled if performed at progressive stages and the preciseness toward stability is monitored.

  1. Spatiotemporal analysis of olive flowering using geostatistical techniques.

    PubMed

    Rojo, Jesús; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

    2015-02-01

    Analysis of flowering patterns in the olive (Olea europaea L.) are of considerable agricultural and ecological interest, and also provide valuable information for allergy-sufferers, enabling identification of the major sources of airborne pollen at any given moment by interpreting the aerobiological data recorded in pollen traps. The present spatiotemporal analysis of olive flowering in central Spain combined geostatistical techniques with the application of a Geographic Information Systems, and compared results for flowering intensity with airborne pollen records. The results were used to obtain continuous phenological maps which determined the pattern of the succession of the olive flowering. The results show also that, although the highest airborne olive-pollen counts were recorded during the greatest flowering intensity of the groves closest to the pollen trap, the counts recorded at the start of the pollen season were not linked to local olive groves, which had not yet begin to flower. To detect the remote sources of olive pollen several episodes of pollen recorded before the local flowering season were analysed using a HYSPLIT trajectory model and the findings showed that western, southern and southwestern winds transported pollen grains into the study area from earlier-flowering groves located outside the territory.

  2. Geostatistics and GIS: tools for characterizing environmental contamination.

    PubMed

    Henshaw, Shannon L; Curriero, Frank C; Shields, Timothy M; Glass, Gregory E; Strickland, Paul T; Breysse, Patrick N

    2004-08-01

    Geostatistics is a set of statistical techniques used in the analysis of georeferenced data that can be applied to environmental contamination and remediation studies. In this study, the 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene (DDE) contamination at a Superfund site in western Maryland is evaluated. Concern about the site and its future clean up has triggered interest within the community because residential development surrounds the area. Spatial statistical methods, of which geostatistics is a subset, are becoming increasingly popular, in part due to the availability of geographic information system (GIS) software in a variety of application packages. In this article, the joint use of ArcGIS software and the R statistical computing environment are demonstrated as an approach for comprehensive geostatistical analyses. The spatial regression method, kriging, is used to provide predictions of DDE levels at unsampled locations both within the site and the surrounding areas where residential development is ongoing.

  3. Conditioning geostatistical simulations of a bedrock fluvial aquifer using single well pumping tests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niazi, A.; Bentley, L. R.; Hayashi, M.

    2015-12-01

    Geostatistical simulation is a powerful tool to explore the uncertainty associated with heterogeneity in groundwater and reservoir studies. Nonetheless, conditioning simulations merely with lithological information does not utilize all of the available information and so some workers additionally condition simulations with flow data. In this study, we introduce an approach to condition geostatistical simulations of the Paskapoo Formation, which is a paleo-fluvial system consisting of sandstone channels embedded in mudstone. The conditioning data consist of two-hour single well pumping tests extracted from the public water well database in Alberta, Canada. In this approach, lithologic models of an entire watershed are simulated and conditioned with hard lithological data using transition probability geostatistics (TPROGS). Then, a segment of the simulation around a pumping well was used to populate a flow model (FEFLOW) with either sand or mudstone. The values of the hydraulic conductivity and specific storage of sand and mudstone were then adjusted to minimize the difference between simulated and actual pumping test data using the parameter estimation program PEST. If the simulated data do not adequately match the measured data, the lithologic model is updated by locally deforming the lithology distribution using the probability perturbation method (PPM) and the model parameters are again updated with PEST. This procedure is repeated until the simulated and measured data agree within a pre-determined tolerance. The procedure is repeated for each pumping well that has pumping test data. The method constrains the lithological simulations and provides estimates of hydraulic conductivity and specific storage that are consistent with the pumping test data. Eventually, the simulations will be combined in watershed scale groundwater models.

  4. Geostatistics for environmental and geotechnical applications: A technology transferred

    SciTech Connect

    Cromer, M.V.

    1996-12-31

    Although successfully applied during the past few decades for predicting the spatial occurrences of properties that are cloaked from direct observation, geostatistical methods remain somewhat of a mystery to practitioners in the environmental and geotechnical fields. The techniques are powerful analytical tools that integrate numerical and statistical methods with scientific intuition and professional judgment to resolve conflicts between conceptual interpretation and direct measurement. This paper examines the practicality of these techniques within the entitled field of study and concludes by introducing a practical case study in which the geostatistical approach is thoroughly executed.

  5. A Preliminary Evaluation of Causal Models of Male and Female Acquisition of Pilot Skills

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1997-01-01

    Male and Female Causal Models...Clearance number 97-531 A Preliminary Evaluation of Causal Models of Male and Female Acquisition of Pilot Skills12 Thomas R. Carretta and Malcolm James...knowledge and flying skills was tested on separate samples of male and female students. Causal model parameters were estimated separately for each

  6. Patch-based iterative conditional geostatistical simulation using graph cuts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xue; Mariethoz, Gregoire; Lu, DeTang; Linde, Niklas

    2016-08-01

    Training image-based geostatistical methods are increasingly popular in groundwater hydrology even if existing algorithms present limitations that often make real-world applications difficult. These limitations include a computational cost that can be prohibitive for high-resolution 3-D applications, the presence of visual artifacts in the model realizations, and a low variability between model realizations due to the limited pool of patterns available in a finite-size training image. In this paper, we address these issues by proposing an iterative patch-based algorithm which adapts a graph cuts methodology that is widely used in computer graphics. Our adapted graph cuts method optimally cuts patches of pixel values borrowed from the training image and assembles them successively, each time accounting for the information of previously stitched patches. The initial simulation result might display artifacts, which are identified as regions of high cost. These artifacts are reduced by iteratively placing new patches in high-cost regions. In contrast to most patch-based algorithms, the proposed scheme can also efficiently address point conditioning. An advantage of the method is that the cut process results in the creation of new patterns that are not present in the training image, thereby increasing pattern variability. To quantify this effect, a new measure of variability is developed, the merging index, quantifies the pattern variability in the realizations with respect to the training image. A series of sensitivity analyses demonstrates the stability of the proposed graph cuts approach, which produces satisfying simulations for a wide range of parameters values. Applications to 2-D and 3-D cases are compared to state-of-the-art multiple-point methods. The results show that the proposed approach obtains significant speedups and increases variability between realizations. Connectivity functions applied to 2-D models transport simulations in 3-D models are used to

  7. A geostatistical approach to mapping site response spectral amplifications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thompson, E.M.; Baise, L.G.; Kayen, R.E.; Tanaka, Y.; Tanaka, H.

    2010-01-01

    If quantitative estimates of the seismic properties do not exist at a location of interest then the site response spectral amplifications must be estimated from data collected at other locations. Currently, the most common approach employs correlations of site class with maps of surficial geology. Analogously, correlations of site class with topographic slope can be employed where the surficial geology is unknown. Our goal is to identify and validate a method to estimate site response with greater spatial resolution and accuracy for regions where additional effort is warranted. This method consists of three components: region-specific data collection, a spatial model for interpolating seismic properties, and a theoretical method for computing spectral amplifications from the interpolated seismic properties. We consider three spatial interpolation schemes: correlations with surficial geology, termed the geologic trend (GT), ordinary kriging (OK), and kriging with a trend (KT). We estimate the spectral amplifications from seismic properties using the square root of impedance method, thereby linking the frequency-dependent spectral amplifications to the depth-dependent seismic properties. Thus, the range of periods for which this method is applicable is limited by the depth of exploration. A dense survey of near-surface S-wave slowness (Ss) throughout Kobe, Japan shows that the geostatistical methods give more accurate estimates of Ss than the topographic slope and GT methods, and the OK and KT methods perform equally well. We prefer the KT model because it can be seamlessly integrated with geologic maps that cover larger regions. Empirical spectral amplifications show that the region-specific data achieve more accurate estimates of observed median short-period amplifications than the topographic slope method. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

  8. Unsupervised classification of multivariate geostatistical data: Two algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romary, Thomas; Ors, Fabien; Rivoirard, Jacques; Deraisme, Jacques

    2015-12-01

    With the increasing development of remote sensing platforms and the evolution of sampling facilities in mining and oil industry, spatial datasets are becoming increasingly large, inform a growing number of variables and cover wider and wider areas. Therefore, it is often necessary to split the domain of study to account for radically different behaviors of the natural phenomenon over the domain and to simplify the subsequent modeling step. The definition of these areas can be seen as a problem of unsupervised classification, or clustering, where we try to divide the domain into homogeneous domains with respect to the values taken by the variables in hand. The application of classical clustering methods, designed for independent observations, does not ensure the spatial coherence of the resulting classes. Image segmentation methods, based on e.g. Markov random fields, are not adapted to irregularly sampled data. Other existing approaches, based on mixtures of Gaussian random functions estimated via the expectation-maximization algorithm, are limited to reasonable sample sizes and a small number of variables. In this work, we propose two algorithms based on adaptations of classical algorithms to multivariate geostatistical data. Both algorithms are model free and can handle large volumes of multivariate, irregularly spaced data. The first one proceeds by agglomerative hierarchical clustering. The spatial coherence is ensured by a proximity condition imposed for two clusters to merge. This proximity condition relies on a graph organizing the data in the coordinates space. The hierarchical algorithm can then be seen as a graph-partitioning algorithm. Following this interpretation, a spatial version of the spectral clustering algorithm is also proposed. The performances of both algorithms are assessed on toy examples and a mining dataset.

  9. A geostatistical and sampling analysis of regraded spoil materials

    SciTech Connect

    Myers, J.C.; Brown, T.H.

    1990-12-31

    Characterization of the pH and acid-base account levels in regraded spoil materials from mining operations is a difficult task due to mixing and the directional nature of product extraction. Geostatistical analysis of regraded spoil materials is currently being studied as the eventual methodology for determining sample grid size and sub-sample number for minesoil monitoring programs in the State of Texas. It is anticipated that geostatistics will soon be utilized for similar reasons at mine sites in other regions. In view of this, it is necessary to develop a position on geostatistics as a method for determining sample intensity necessary to statistically characterize Acid Forming Material (AFM) conditions existing in post-mined soils. A group of six Texas lignite mines has been analyzed using geostatistical methods. Acid-base account and pH values were mapped at four levels in each site. Determinations as to the confidence of the sampling programs were performed for all sites. Recommendations and strategies were developed for future sampling programs. Additional techniques to minimize sub-sample spacing were also developed.

  10. An application of geostatistics and fractal geometry for reservoir characterization

    SciTech Connect

    Aasum, Y.; Kelkar, M.G. ); Gupta, S.P. )

    1991-03-01

    This paper presents an application of geostatistics and fractal geometry concepts for 2D characterization of rock properties (k and {phi}) in a dolomitic, layered-cake reservoir. The results indicate that lack of closely spaced data yield effectively random distributions of properties. Further, incorporation of geology reduces uncertainties in fractal interpolation of wellbore properties.

  11. Characterizing Geothermal Surface Manifestation Based on Multivariate Geostatistics of Ground Measurements Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishaq; Nur Heriawan, Mohamad; Saepuloh, Asep

    2016-09-01

    Mt. Wayang Windu is one of geothermal field located in West Java, Indonesia. The characterization of steam spots at surface manifestation zones based on the soil physical measurements of the area is presented in this study. The multivariate geostatistical methods incorporating the soil physical parameter data were used to characterize the zonation of geothermal surface manifestations. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the performance of spatial estimation method of multivariate geostatistics using Ordinary Cokriging (COK) to characterize the physical properties of geothermal surface manifestations at Mt. Wayang Windu. The COK method was selected because this method is favorable when the secondary variables has more number than the primary variables. There are four soil physical parameters used as the basis of COK method, i.e. Electrical Conductivity, Susceptibility, pH, and Temperature. The parameters were measured directly at and around geothermal surface manifestations including hot springs, fumaroles, and craters. Each location of surface manifestations was measured about 30 points with 30 x 30 m grids. The measurement results were analyzed by descriptive statistics to identify at the nature of data. The correlation among variables was analyzed using linear regression. When the correlation coefficient among variables is higher, the estimation results is expected to have better Linear Coregionalization Model (LCM). LCM was used to analyze the spatial correlation of each variable based on their variogram and cross-variogram model. In oder to evaluate the performance of multivariate geostatistical using COK method, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was performed. Estimation result using COK method is well applicable for characterizing the surface physics parameters of radar images data.

  12. Geostatistical inversion of moment eqations of groundwater flow at the Montalto Uffugo reasearch site (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bianchi Janetti, E.; Riva, M.; Straface, S.; Guadagnini, A.

    2009-04-01

    We present the application of a methodology of inverting stochastic mean groundwater flow equations to characterize the spatial variability of (natural) log-transmissivity of the Montalto Uffugo research site (Italy). The methodology has been originally proposed by Hernandez et al. [2003, 2006]. It relies on a nonlinear geostatistical inverse algorithm for steady-state groundwater flow that allows estimating jointly the spatial variability of log-transmissivity, the underlying variogram and its parameters, and the variance-covariance of the estimates. Exact mean flow equations are rendered workable by means of a suitable second-order approximation (in terms of a small parameter, representing the standard deviation of the underlying random log-transmissivities). A unique feature of the method is its capability of providing estimates of prediction errors of hydraulic heads and fluxes, which are calculated a posteriori, upon solving corresponding moment equations. Prior estimates of the transmissivity variogram and its associated parameters at the test site are obtained on the basis of available electrical resistivity data. Transmissivity is parameterized geostatistically on the basis of an available measured value and a set of unknown values at discrete pilot points. While prior pilot point values are obtained by generalized kriging, posterior estimates at pilot points are obtained by calibrating mean flow against late-time values of hydraulic head collected during a pumping test. Information on hydraulic heads is obtained on the basis of self-potential signals recorded by 47 surface electrodes during the test. We explore the effectiveness of both a second-order and a lower-order closure of the mean flow equation at capturing the parameters of the estimated log-transmissivity variogram. The latter are estimated a posteriori using formal model selection criteria. Our results highlight that assimilating hydrogeophysical data within a second-order model for mean

  13. Geostatistical joint inversion of seismic and potential field methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shamsipour, Pejman; Chouteau, Michel; Giroux, Bernard

    2016-04-01

    Interpretation of geophysical data needs to integrate different types of information to make the proposed model geologically realistic. Multiple data sets can reduce uncertainty and non-uniqueness present in separate geophysical data inversions. Seismic data can play an important role in mineral exploration, however processing and interpretation of seismic data is difficult due to complexity of hard-rock geology. On the other hand, the recovered model from potential field methods is affected by inherent non uniqueness caused by the nature of the physics and by underdetermination of the problem. Joint inversion of seismic and potential field data can mitigate weakness of separate inversion of these methods. A stochastic joint inversion method based on geostatistical techniques is applied to estimate density and velocity distributions from gravity and travel time data. The method fully integrates the physical relations between density-gravity, on one hand, and slowness-travel time, on the other hand. As a consequence, when the data are considered noise-free, the responses from the inverted slowness and density data exactly reproduce the observed data. The required density and velocity auto- and cross-covariance are assumed to follow a linear model of coregionalization (LCM). The recent development of nonlinear model of coregionalization could also be applied if needed. The kernel function for the gravity method is obtained by the closed form formulation. For ray tracing, we use the shortest-path methods (SPM) to calculate the operation matrix. The jointed inversion is performed on structured grid; however, it is possible to extend it to use unstructured grid. The method is tested on two synthetic models: a model consisting of two objects buried in a homogeneous background and a model with stochastic distribution of parameters. The results illustrate the capability of the method to improve the inverted model compared to the separate inverted models with either gravity

  14. High-resolution Geostatistical Inversion of the Transient Richards Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, Ole; Bastian, Peter; Ippisch, Olaf

    2015-04-01

    The vadose zone and the complex physical processes in it play a vital role in our understanding of the environment. The production of most food is directly or indirectly linked to the growth of organic matter sustained by subsurface flow. For a reliable assessment of the influence of natural and anthropogenic changes to such a coupled system detailed knowledge about the flow patterns and dynamics is important, but the high spatial variability of subsurface hydraulic parameters makes reliable predictions about flow patterns difficult. Direct measurement of these properties is not possible, making indirect observations through dependent quantities and parameter estimation a necessity. The geostatistical approach characterizes these hydraulic parameters without predetermined zonation. The parameter fields are treated as stochastic processes, optionally incorporating a priori information in the probability distribution. Maximizing the likelihood of the parameters with regard to the given observations yields a parameter estimate with high spatial resolution. This approach naturally leads to non-linear least squares optimization problems that may theoretically be solved using standard techniques. However, the accurate numerical representation of the Richards equation necessitates high spatio-temporal resolution and therefore a large number of parameters, while time series of observed physical quantities typically lead to many data points to invert. This high dimensionality in both the parameter and observation space makes standard techniques infeasible. We present an extension of one of these existing inversion methods, developed for stationary flow in confined aquifers, to instationary flow regimes in partially saturated porous media. Our approach uses a Conjugate Gradients scheme preconditioned with the prior covariance matrix to avoid both multiplications with its inverse and the explicit assembly of the sensitivity matrix. Instead, one combined adjoint model run is

  15. Geostatistical analysis of soil properties at field scale using standardized data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Millan, H.; Tarquis, A. M.; Pérez, L. D.; Matos, J.; González-Posada, M.

    2012-04-01

    Indentifying areas with physical degradation is a crucial step to ameliorate the effects in soil erosion. The quantification and interpretation of spatial variability is a key issue for site-specific soil management. Geostatistics has been the main methodological tool for implementing precision agriculture using field data collected at different spatial resolutions. Even though many works have made significant contributions to the body of knowledge on spatial statistics and its applications, some other key points need to be addressed for conducting precise comparisons between soil properties using geostatistical parameters. The objectives of the present work were (i) to quantify the spatial structure of different physical properties collected from a Vertisol, (ii) to search for potential correlations between different spatial patterns and (iii) to identify relevant components through multivariate spatial analysis. The study was conducted on a Vertisol (Typic Hapludert) dedicated to sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) production during the last sixty years. We used six soil properties collected from a squared grid (225 points) (penetrometer resistance (PR), total porosity, fragmentation dimension (Df), vertical electrical conductivity (ECv), horizontal electrical conductivity (ECh) and soil water content (WC)). All the original data sets were z-transformed before geostatistical analysis. Three different types of semivariogram models were necessary for fitting individual experimental semivariograms. This suggests the different natures of spatial variability patterns. Soil water content rendered the largest nugget effect (C0 = 0.933) while soil total porosity showed the largest range of spatial correlation (A = 43.92 m). The bivariate geostatistical analysis also rendered significant cross-semivariance between different paired soil properties. However, four different semivariogram models were required in that case. This indicates an underlying co

  16. Long-term postseismic relaxation in southern California: Evidence from a geostatistical analysis of geodetic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Potter, David Russell

    In this thesis I use a geostatistical approach to analyze geodetic data to quantify current rates of crustal deformation in southern California. The data consist of triangulation, trilateration and the 287 GPS derived velocity vectors of the Southern California Earthquake Center Velocity Map. The defining feature of the geostatistical technique I use is the observation-based differentiable covariance function. This characteristic allows transformation of the observed data into representations of the continuous two-dimensional velocity field and strain rate fields. The geostatistical analysis of geodetic data shows the differences between geologic and geodetic estimates of crustal deformation. The three main conclusions from this work are as follows. First, my results show that long-term postseismic relaxation of the upper ductile crust occurs after large (M > 6.75) earthquakes. The postseismic signatures, caused by large earthquakes rupturing the entire brittle crust, are especially clear for the 1952 Kern County and 1992 Landers earthquakes. The dilation rate and rotation rate plots reveal that in both events, the postseismic motions posses the same sense as the coseismic rupture, indicating continued motion long after the coseismic rupture ceases. Second, I show that the geologic slip rate estimates are too high by at least one standard deviation along much of the San Andreas fault in southern California. The residual (geodetic-geologic) deformation rate fields show high residual shearing rates along the SAF. However, the sense of motion is not consistent with postseismic effects following the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake, but is consistent with an overestimate of the geologic slip rate. Third, I show that the WGCEP Phase II geologic models underestimate the amount of deformation occurring along the western portion of California, especially in the Ventura Basin and the Los Angeles basin.

  17. A Preliminary Model of Insider Theft of Intellectual Property

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-01-01

    predispositions and organizational and individual stressors as antecedents of a range of malicious activity. Our past work has involved modeling insider fraud...The personal, situational, and behavioral antecedents identified in the CWB literature are also sup- ported in many models of computer-related malicious... Model – which extends the Entitled Independent Model - has more potential indicators for early warning. Together these two models present the big

  18. Geostatistical borehole image-based mapping of karst-carbonate aquifer pores

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael Sukop,; Cunningham, Kevin J.

    2016-01-01

    Quantification of the character and spatial distribution of porosity in carbonate aquifers is important as input into computer models used in the calculation of intrinsic permeability and for next-generation, high-resolution groundwater flow simulations. Digital, optical, borehole-wall image data from three closely spaced boreholes in the karst-carbonate Biscayne aquifer in southeastern Florida are used in geostatistical experiments to assess the capabilities of various methods to create realistic two-dimensional models of vuggy megaporosity and matrix-porosity distribution in the limestone that composes the aquifer. When the borehole image data alone were used as the model training image, multiple-point geostatistics failed to detect the known spatial autocorrelation of vuggy megaporosity and matrix porosity among the three boreholes, which were only 10 m apart. Variogram analysis and subsequent Gaussian simulation produced results that showed a realistic conceptualization of horizontal continuity of strata dominated by vuggy megaporosity and matrix porosity among the three boreholes.

  19. A Preliminary Investigation of a Hyperbolic Model of Attitude Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crano, William D.; Cooper, Ralph E.

    A model of attitudes change having the mathematical characteristics of a hyperbolic function, with major parameters determined by source credibility and discrepancy, is proposed and tested against leading established models of attitude change. The proposed hyperbolic model proved to be a more accurate predictive device than either of the two…

  20. Preliminary Dynamic Modeling of the Hanford Waste Treatment Plant Melter Offgas

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, F.G. III

    2001-09-21

    This report documents preliminary versions of the models that include the components of the offgas systems from the melters through the exhaust stacks and the vessel ventilation systems. The models consider only the two major chemical species in the offgas stream: air and steam or water vapor. Model mass and energy balance calculations are designed to show the dynamic behavior of gas pressure and flow throughout the offgas systems in response to transient driving forces.

  1. A preliminary compressible second-order closure model for high speed flows

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Speziale, Charles G.; Sarkar, Sutanu

    1989-01-01

    A preliminary version of a compressible second-order closure model that was developed in connection with the National Aero-Space Plane Project is presented. The model requires the solution of transport equations for the Favre-averaged Reynolds stress tensor and dissipation rate. Gradient transport hypotheses are used for the Reynolds heat flux, mass flux, and turbulent diffusion terms. Some brief remarks are made about the direction of future research to generalize the model.

  2. Preliminary Modeling and Simulation Study on Olfactory Cell Sensation

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou Jun; Chen Peihua; Liu Qingjun; Wang Ping; Yang Wei

    2009-05-23

    This paper introduced olfactory sensory neuron's whole-cell model with a concrete voltage-gated ionic channels and simulation. Though there are many models in olfactory sensory neuron and olfactory bulb, it remains uncertain how they express the logic of olfactory information processing. In this article, the olfactory neural network model is also introduced. This model specifies the connections among neural ensembles of the olfactory system. The simulation results of the neural network model are consistent with the observed olfactory biological characteristics such as 1/f-type power spectrum and oscillations.

  3. Geostatistical reservoir characterization of complex lateral and vertical sequences in a mixed carbonate platform

    SciTech Connect

    Norris, R.J.; Alabert, F.G.; Massonnat, G.J. )

    1994-07-01

    In recent years reservoir characterization through the use of geostatistics has become an almost routine part of production geology. Many techniques are available within the broad title of geostatistics, having been developed in response to many types of problem. One characteristic feature of almost all techniques (Stochastic Indicator Simulation, Boolean [open quotes]object[close quotes] Modeling, Gaussian [and Truncated Gaussian] methods and Optimized Markov-fields) is their reliance on the concept of quantifiable correlations, which reflect some aspect of the shape of [open quotes]objects.[close quotes] For example, almost any of the above noted techniques, and their variants, could be used to model fluvial, deltaic, or turbiditic reservoirs because in each case facies can be described in terms of geometries (channels, lobes, etc.). This study considers the complex lateral and vertical variations of a mixed carbonate platform environment, where facies cannot be easily characterized by simple geometries. The complex heterogeneities are a function of changes in sea level, representing fluctuations over several orders of cyclicity. Given facies have no characteristic form, being the product of the interplay between sediment supply and sea level change. This type of environment is, therefore, characterized by a good deal of information concerning trends in the data, while correlations and geometries are almost meaningless. Associated with the concepts of cyclicity, rules concerning the reappearance of facies, or otherwise, were developed. For example, minor recurrences of maximum flooding surfaces could be tolerated within individual units but other specified recurrences need to be excluded.

  4. Assessment of groundwater pollution in West Delhi, India using geostatistical approach.

    PubMed

    Adhikary, Partha Pratim; Chandrasekharan, H; Chakraborty, Debashis; Kamble, Kalpana

    2010-08-01

    The exploration, exploitation, and unscientific management of groundwater resources in the National Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi, India have posed a serious threat of reduction in quantity and deterioration of quality. The objective of the study is to determine the groundwater quality and to assess the risk of groundwater pollution at Najafgarh, NCT of Delhi. The groundwater quality parameters were analyzed from the existing wells of the Najafgarh and the thematic maps were generated using geostatistical concepts. Ordinary kriging and indicator kriging methods were used as geostatistical approach for preparation of thematic maps of the groundwater quality parameters such as bicarbonate, calcium, chloride, electrical conductivity (EC), magnesium, nitrate, sodium, and sulphate with concentrations equal or greater than their respective groundwater pollution cutoff value. Experimental semivariogram values were fitted well in spherical model for the water quality parameters, such as bicarbonate, chloride, EC, magnesium, sodium, and sulphate and in exponential model for calcium and nitrate. The thematic maps of all the groundwater quality parameters exhibited an increasing trend of pollution from the northern and western part of the study area towards the southern and eastern part. The concentration was highest at the southernmost part of the study area but it could not reflect correctly the groundwater pollution status. The indicator kriging method is useful to assess the risk of groundwater pollution by giving the conditional probability of concentrations of different chemical parameters exceeding their cutoff values. Thus, risk assessment of groundwater pollution is useful for proper management of groundwater resources and minimizing the pollution threat.

  5. A Preliminary Field Test of an Employee Work Passion Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zigarmi, Drea; Nimon, Kim; Houson, Dobie; Witt, David; Diehl, Jim

    2011-01-01

    Four dimensions of a process model for the formulation of employee work passion, derived from Zigarmi, Nimon, Houson, Witt, and Diehl (2009), were tested in a field setting. A total of 447 employees completed questionnaires that assessed the internal elements of the model in a corporate work environment. Data from the measurements of work affect,…

  6. A preliminary numerical model of the Geminid meteoroid stream

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryabova, G. O.

    2016-02-01

    A pilot numerical model of the Geminid meteoroid stream is presented. This model implies cometary origin of the stream. Ejection of relatively small amount of particles (90 000 test meteoroids with masses 0.02, 0.003 and 0.0003 g) from the asteroid (3200) Phaethon (the parent body) was simulated, and their evolution was followed till the present time. The particles close to the Earth orbit were considered as the `shower'. It was found that the width of the model shower is at least twice less comparatively the real shower. The maximum activity of the model shower is dislocated and occurs about one day late. The most probable reason for both discrepancies is the drastic transformation of the parent body orbit during rapid release of the volatiles in the process of the stream initial formation. The dispersion of the model stream was evaluated in terms of the Southworth-Hawkins D-criterion.

  7. Three-dimensional ERT imaging by the geostatistical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitanidis, P. K.; Lee, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    Electric resistivity tomography (ERT), with observations made at the surface or in boreholes, is a method of imaging the subsurface with many potential applications in areas that include hydrology and environmental engineering. The estimation of the resistivity function from observations is a classic inverse problem. One method to solve this problem is the Geostatistical Approach (GA), which is a stochastic method that allows one to explore the range of possible solutions. GA is an objective and empirical Bayes method. The emphasis of this talk is on methods to reduce the computational cost of implementing this approach. We will show examples of application of the Principal Component Geostatistical Approach (PCGA). PCGA is Jacobian-free and uses forward solvers as black boxes. It utilizes the leading principal components from the prior covariance to obtain a good approximation of the solution at a fraction of the cost.

  8. Wave-current interactions: model development and preliminary results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayet, Clement; Lyard, Florent; Ardhuin, Fabrice

    2013-04-01

    The coastal area concentrates many uses that require integrated management based on diagnostic and predictive tools to understand and anticipate the future of pollution from land or sea, and learn more about natural hazards at sea or activity on the coast. The realistic modelling of coastal hydrodynamics needs to take into account various processes which interact, including tides, surges, and sea state (Wolf [2008]). These processes act at different spatial scales. Unstructured-grid models have shown the ability to satisfy these needs, given that a good mesh resolution criterion is used. We worked on adding a sea state forcing in a hydrodynamic circulation model. The sea state model is the unstructured version of WAVEWATCH III c (Tolman [2008]) (which version is developed at IFREMER, Brest (Ardhuin et al. [2010]) ), and the hydrodynamic model is the 2D barotropic module of the unstructured-grid finite element model T-UGOm (Le Bars et al. [2010]). We chose to use the radiation stress approach (Longuet-Higgins and Stewart [1964]) to represent the effect of surface waves (wind waves and swell) in the barotropic model, as previously done by Mastenbroek et al. [1993]and others. We present here some validation of the model against academic cases : a 2D plane beach (Haas and Warner [2009]) and a simple bathymetric step with analytic solution for waves (Ardhuin et al. [2008]). In a second part we present realistic application in the Ushant Sea during extreme event. References Ardhuin, F., N. Rascle, and K. Belibassakis, Explicit wave-averaged primitive equations using a generalized Lagrangian mean, Ocean Modelling, 20 (1), 35-60, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2007.07.001, 2008. Ardhuin, F., et al., Semiempirical Dissipation Source Functions for Ocean Waves. Part I: Definition, Calibration, and Validation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 40 (9), 1917-1941, doi:10.1175/2010JPO4324.1, 2010. Haas, K. A., and J. C. Warner, Comparing a quasi-3D to a full 3D nearshore circulation model: SHORECIRC and

  9. Preliminary numerical analysis of improved gas chromatograph model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Woodrow, P. T.

    1973-01-01

    A mathematical model for the gas chromatograph was developed which incorporates the heretofore neglected transport mechanisms of intraparticle diffusion and rates of adsorption. Because a closed-form analytical solution to the model does not appear realizable, techniques for the numerical solution of the model equations are being investigated. Criteria were developed for using a finite terminal boundary condition in place of an infinite boundary condition used in analytical solution techniques. The class of weighted residual methods known as orthogonal collocation is presently being investigated and appears promising.

  10. Geostatistics for natural resources characterization. Part 1 and part 2

    SciTech Connect

    Verly, G.

    1984-01-01

    This collection of 33 research papers (in two volumes) bears witness to the fact that applications of geostatistics are no longer limited to the mining industry. Given are reports made in fields such as hydrology, soil sciences, pollution control, and geotechnical engineering. Contents, abridged: (pt.1) Variogram. Kriging. Recoverage reserves. Spectral analysis and data analysis. (pt. 2) Applications in the petroleum industry and automatics contouring. Applications in hydrogeology and geochemical exploration. Case studies in ore reserves estimation. Simulation. Index.

  11. RHF RELAP5 model and preliminary loss-of-offsite-power simulation results for LEU conversion

    SciTech Connect

    Licht, J. R.; Bergeron, A.; Dionne, B.; Thomas, F.

    2014-08-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe the current state of the RELAP5 model for the Institut Laue-Langevin High Flux Reactor (RHF) located in Grenoble, France, and provide an update to the key information required to complete, for example, simulations for a loss of offsite power (LOOP) accident. A previous status report identified a list of 22 items to be resolved in order to complete the RELAP5 model. Most of these items have been resolved by ANL and the RHF team. Enough information was available to perform preliminary safety analyses and define the key items that are still required. Section 2 of this document describes the RELAP5 model of RHF. The final part of this section briefly summarizes previous model issues and resolutions. Section 3 of this document describes preliminary LOOP simulations for both HEU and LEU fuel at beginning of cycle conditions.

  12. Bridges between multiple-point geostatistics and texture synthesis: Review and guidelines for future research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mariethoz, Gregoire; Lefebvre, Sylvain

    2014-05-01

    Multiple-Point Simulations (MPS) is a family of geostatistical tools that has received a lot of attention in recent years for the characterization of spatial phenomena in geosciences. It relies on the definition of training images to represent a given type of spatial variability, or texture. We show that the algorithmic tools used are similar in many ways to techniques developed in computer graphics, where there is a need to generate large amounts of realistic textures for applications such as video games and animated movies. Similarly to MPS, these texture synthesis methods use training images, or exemplars, to generate realistic-looking graphical textures. Both domains of multiple-point geostatistics and example-based texture synthesis present similarities in their historic development and share similar concepts. These disciplines have however remained separated, and as a result significant algorithmic innovations in each discipline have not been universally adopted. Texture synthesis algorithms present drastically increased computational efficiency, patterns reproduction and user control. At the same time, MPS developed ways to condition models to spatial data and to produce 3D stochastic realizations, which have not been thoroughly investigated in the field of texture synthesis. In this paper we review the possible links between these disciplines and show the potential and limitations of using concepts and approaches from texture synthesis in MPS. We also provide guidelines on how recent developments could benefit both fields of research, and what challenges remain open.

  13. The Direct Sampling method to perform multiple-point geostatistical simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mariethoz, Gregoire; Renard, Philippe; Straubhaar, Julien

    2010-11-01

    Multiple-point geostatistics is a general statistical framework to model spatial fields displaying a wide range of complex structures. In particular, it allows controlling connectivity patterns that have a critical importance for groundwater flow and transport problems. This approach involves considering data events (spatial arrangements of values) derived from a training image (TI). All data events found in the TI are usually stored in a database, which is used to retrieve conditional probabilities for the simulation. Instead, we propose to sample directly the training image for a given data event, making the database unnecessary. Our method is statistically equivalent to previous implementations, but in addition it allows extending the application of multiple-point geostatistics to continuous variables and to multivariate problems. The method can be used for the simulation of geological heterogeneity, accounting or not for indirect observations such as geophysics. We show its applicability in the presence of complex features, nonlinear relationships between variables, and with various cases of nonstationarity. Computationally, it is fast, easy to parallelize, parsimonious in memory needs, and straightforward to implement.

  14. Preliminary Landing Tests of a 1/6-Scale Dynamic Model of a Lunar Excursion Vehicle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1962-01-01

    Preliminary Landing Tests of a 1/6-Scale Dynamic Model of a Lunar Excursion Vehicle. The film shows 21 trials made on 8 days of the scale Model 413 lunar landing vehicle. Attitudes tested were a pitch of 0, -15, or 15 degrees and yaw of 0 or 45 degrees. Velocities were vertical 10 and horizontal 10, though two trials were simple vertical drops. [Entire movie available on DVD from CASI as Doc ID 20070030974. Contact help@sti.nasa.gov

  15. Preliminary results of a three-dimensional radiative transfer model

    SciTech Connect

    O`Hirok, W.

    1995-09-01

    Clouds act as the primary modulator of the Earth`s radiation at the top of the atmosphere, within the atmospheric column, and at the Earth`s surface. They interact with both shortwave and longwave radiation, but it is primarily in the case of shortwave where most of the uncertainty lies because of the difficulties in treating scattered solar radiation. To understand cloud-radiative interactions, radiative transfer models portray clouds as plane-parallel homogeneous entities to ease the computational physics. Unfortunately, clouds are far from being homogeneous, and large differences between measurement and theory point to a stronger need to understand and model cloud macrophysical properties. In an attempt to better comprehend the role of cloud morphology on the 3-dimensional radiation field, a Monte Carlo model has been developed. This model can simulate broadband shortwave radiation fluxes while incorporating all of the major atmospheric constituents. The model is used to investigate the cloud absorption anomaly where cloud absorption measurements exceed theoretical estimates and to examine the efficacy of ERBE measurements and cloud field experiments. 3 figs.

  16. Future mission studies: Preliminary comparisons of solar flux models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ashrafi, S.

    1991-01-01

    The results of comparisons of the solar flux models are presented. (The wavelength lambda = 10.7 cm radio flux is the best indicator of the strength of the ionizing radiations such as solar ultraviolet and x-ray emissions that directly affect the atmospheric density thereby changing the orbit lifetime of satellites. Thus, accurate forecasting of solar flux F sub 10.7 is crucial for orbit determination of spacecrafts.) The measured solar flux recorded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is compared against the forecasts made by Schatten, MSFC, and NOAA itself. The possibility of a combined linear, unbiased minimum-variance estimation that properly combines all three models into one that minimizes the variance is also discussed. All the physics inherent in each model are combined. This is considered to be the dead-end statistical approach to solar flux forecasting before any nonlinear chaotic approach.

  17. Preliminary Efforts to Couple TETRAD with Geophysics Models

    SciTech Connect

    Shook, G.M.; Renner, J.L.

    2002-02-19

    The Geothermal Program at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory is enhancing our reservoir simulation capabilities by writing new subroutines with TETRAD that write necessary files for use with SAIC's geophysics models, including DC Resistivity, SP, and microgravity. This is part of long-term efforts to develop reservoir models that take advantage of various observations that are - or can be - made on both existing fields or during exploration efforts. These new routines will be made available to the TETRAD user community in 2002 through the next release of TETRAD 2002.

  18. Preliminary Efforts to Couple TETRAD with Geophysics Models

    SciTech Connect

    Shook, George Michael; Renner, Joel Lawrence; Bloomfield, Kevin Kit

    2002-01-01

    The Geothermal Program at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory is enhancing our reservoir simulation capabilities by writing new subroutines with TETRAD that write necessary files for use with SAIC's geophysics models, including DC Resistivity, SP, and microgravity. This is part of long-term efforts to develop reservoir models that take advantage of various observations that are - or can be - made on both existing fields or during exploration efforts. These new routines will be made available to the TETRAD user community in 2002 through the next release of TETRAD 2002.

  19. Precipitation estimation in mountainous terrain using multivariate geostatistics. Part I: structural analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hevesi, Joseph A.; Istok, Jonathan D.; Flint, Alan L.

    1992-01-01

    Values of average annual precipitation (AAP) are desired for hydrologic studies within a watershed containing Yucca Mountain, Nevada, a potential site for a high-level nuclear-waste repository. Reliable values of AAP are not yet available for most areas within this watershed because of a sparsity of precipitation measurements and the need to obtain measurements over a sufficient length of time. To estimate AAP over the entire watershed, historical precipitation data and station elevations were obtained from a network of 62 stations in southern Nevada and southeastern California. Multivariate geostatistics (cokriging) was selected as an estimation method because of a significant (p = 0.05) correlation of r = .75 between the natural log of AAP and station elevation. A sample direct variogram for the transformed variable, TAAP = ln [(AAP) 1000], was fitted with an isotropic, spherical model defined by a small nugget value of 5000, a range of 190 000 ft, and a sill value equal to the sample variance of 163 151. Elevations for 1531 additional locations were obtained from topographic maps to improve the accuracy of cokriged estimates. A sample direct variogram for elevation was fitted with an isotropic model consisting of a nugget value of 5500 and three nested transition structures: a Gaussian structure with a range of 61 000 ft, a spherical structure with a range of 70 000 ft, and a quasi-stationary, linear structure. The use of an isotropic, stationary model for elevation was considered valid within a sliding-neighborhood radius of 120 000 ft. The problem of fitting a positive-definite, nonlinear model of coregionalization to an inconsistent sample cross variogram for TAAP and elevation was solved by a modified use of the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality. A selected cross-variogram model consisted of two nested structures: a Gaussian structure with a range of 61 000 ft and a spherical structure with a range of 190 000 ft. Cross validation was used for model selection and for

  20. Application of geostatistics to coal-resource characterization and mine planning. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Kauffman, P.W.; Walton, D.R.; Martuneac, L.; Kim, Y.C.; Knudsen, H.P.; Baafi, E.Y.; Lonergan, J.E.; Martino, F.

    1981-12-01

    Geostatistics is a proven method of ore reserve estimation in many non-coal mining areas but little has been published concerning its application to coal resources. This report presents the case for using geostatistics for coal mining applications and describes how a coal mining concern can best utilize geostatistical techniques for coal resource characterization and mine planning. An overview of the theory of geostatistics is also presented. Many of the applications discussed are documented in case studies that are a part of the report. The results of an exhaustive literature search are presented and recommendations are made for needed future research and demonstration projects.

  1. Preliminary Modulus and Breakage Calculations on Cellulose Models

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Young’s modulus of polymers can be calculated by stretching molecular models with the computer. The molecule is stretched and the derivative of the changes in stored potential energy for several displacements, divided by the molecular cross-section area, is the stress. The modulus is the slope o...

  2. A preliminary study to Assess Model Uncertainties in Fluid Flows

    SciTech Connect

    Marc Oliver Delchini; Jean C. Ragusa

    2009-09-01

    The goal of this study is to assess the impact of various flow models for a simplified primary coolant loop of a light water nuclear reactor. The various fluid flow models are based on the Euler equations with an additional friction term, gravity term, momentum source, and energy source. The geometric model is purposefully chosen simple and consists of a one-dimensional (1D) loop system in order to focus the study on the validity of various fluid flow approximations. The 1D loop system is represented by a rectangle; the fluid is heated up along one of the vertical legs and cooled down along the opposite leg. A pressurizer and a pump are included in the horizontal legs. The amount of energy transferred and removed from the system is equal in absolute value along the two vertical legs. The various fluid flow approximations are compressible vs. incompressible, and complete momentum equation vs. Darcy’s approximation. The ultimate goal is to compute the fluid flow models’ uncertainties and, if possible, to generate validity ranges for these models when applied to reactor analysis. We also limit this study to single phase flows with low-Mach numbers. As a result, sound waves carry a very small amount of energy in this particular case. A standard finite volume method is used for the spatial discretization of the system.

  3. Preliminary Exploration of Adaptive State Predictor Based Human Operator Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Trujillo, Anna C.; Gregory, Irene M.

    2012-01-01

    Control-theoretic modeling of the human operator dynamic behavior in manual control tasks has a long and rich history. In the last two decades, there has been a renewed interest in modeling the human operator. There has also been significant work on techniques used to identify the pilot model of a given structure. The purpose of this research is to attempt to go beyond pilot identification based on collected experimental data and to develop a predictor of pilot behavior. An experiment was conducted to quantify the effects of changing aircraft dynamics on an operator s ability to track a signal in order to eventually model a pilot adapting to changing aircraft dynamics. A gradient descent estimator and a least squares estimator with exponential forgetting used these data to predict pilot stick input. The results indicate that individual pilot characteristics and vehicle dynamics did not affect the accuracy of either estimator method to estimate pilot stick input. These methods also were able to predict pilot stick input during changing aircraft dynamics and they may have the capability to detect a change in a subject due to workload, engagement, etc., or the effects of changes in vehicle dynamics on the pilot.

  4. Preliminary Shuttle Space Suit Shielding Model. Chapter 9

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, Brooke M.; Nealy, J. E.; Qualls, G. D.; Staritz, P. J.; Wilson, J. W.; Kim, M.-H. Y.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Atwell, W.; DeAngelis, G.; Ware, J.; Persans, A. E.

    2003-01-01

    There are two space suits in current usage within the space program: EMU [2] and Orlan-M Space Suit . The Shuttle space suit components are discussed elsewhere [2,5,6] and serve as a guide to development of the current model. The present model is somewhat simplified in details which are considered to be second order in their effects on exposures. A more systematic approach is ongoing on a part-by-part basis with the most important ones in terms of exposure contributions being addressed first with detailed studies of the relatively thin space suit fabric as the first example . Additional studies to validate the model of the head coverings (bubble, helmet, visors.. .) will be undertaken in the near future. The purpose of this paper is to present the details of the model as it is now and to examine its impact on estimates of astronaut health risks. In this respect, the nonuniform distribution of mass of the space suit provides increased shielding in some directions and some organs. These effects can be most important in terms of health risks and especially critical to evaluation of potential early radiation effects .

  5. Quality measures for geostatistical prediction of log-normal soil properties.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, R. M.

    2012-04-01

    A signature of non-linear processes in the soil is the non-normal distribution of soil properties. A common non-normal distribution is the log-normal, in which the variable Z can be transformed to a variable with a normal distribution by Y = log e(Z). Log-normal variables are common in soil geochemistry and hydrology. It is standard practice in geostatistics to use the log-transformation for such variables before spatial modelling and prediction, and there are procedures to back-transform predictions of Y to the original scale of measurement Z. This is important because values on the original scale are commonly required either for scientific purposes or for practical applications such as the assessment of potential contaminant concentrations in soil. One of the strengths of geostatistics is that geostatistical prediction returns a prediction error variance. Furthermore, this variance can be computed before a survey is undertaken, for a range of possible different sampling networks, since it depends only on the disposition of sample sites, and the variogram model of spatial dependence. This allows the most efficient network to be selected: one which will provide estimates of sufficient precision (where the prediction error variances are within acceptable bounds) without over-sampling. In log-normal kriging the prediction error variance depends not only on the variogram and the sampling array, but also on the conditional mean value of the variable, which is not known until after sampling. This means that the usual pre-survey quality measures which can be computed to guide the planning of geostatistical surveys are not available for log-normal variables. Given that many critical variables, such as contaminant concentrations, are often log-normally distributed, this is a serious gap in the capablity of geostatistics to facilitate rational sampling design for environmental management and monitoring. In this paper I propose and demonstrate some quality measures that can

  6. Thermal buoyancy on Venus: Preliminary results of finite element modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burt, J. D.; Head, James W., III

    1992-01-01

    Enhanced surface temperatures and a thinner lithosphere on Venus relative to Earth have been cited as leading to increased lithospheric buoyancy. This would limit or prevent subduction on Venus and favor the construction of thickened crust through underthrusting. In order to evaluate the conditions distinguishing between underthrusting and subduction, we have modeled the thermal and buoyancy consequences of the subduction end member. This study considers the fate of a slab from the time it starts to subduct, but bypasses the question of subduction initiation. Thermal changes in slabs subducting into a mantle having a range of initial geotherms are used to predict density changes and thus their overall buoyancy. Finite element modeling is then applied in a first approximation of the assessment of the relative rates of subduction as compared to the buoyant rise of the slab through a viscous mantle.

  7. Modeling and simulation for space medicine operations: preliminary requirements considered

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dawson, D. L.; Billica, R. D.; McDonald, P. V.

    2001-01-01

    The NASA Space Medicine program is now developing plans for more extensive use of high-fidelity medical simulation systems. The use of simulation is seen as means to more effectively use the limited time available for astronaut medical training. Training systems should be adaptable for use in a variety of training environments, including classrooms or laboratories, space vehicle mockups, analog environments, and in microgravity. Modeling and simulation can also provide the space medicine development program a mechanism for evaluation of other medical technologies under operationally realistic conditions. Systems and procedures need preflight verification with ground-based testing. Traditionally, component testing has been accomplished, but practical means for "human in the loop" verification of patient care systems have been lacking. Medical modeling and simulation technology offer potential means to accomplish such validation work. Initial considerations in the development of functional requirements and design standards for simulation systems for space medicine are discussed.

  8. A preliminary model of ion beam neutralization. [in thruster plasmas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parks, D. E.; Katz, I.

    1979-01-01

    A theoretical model of neutralized thruster ion beam plasmas has been developed. The basic premise is that the beam forms an electrostatic trap for the neutralizing electrons. A Maxwellian spectrum of electron energies is maintained by collisions between trapped electrons and by collective randomization of velocities of electrons injected from the neutralizer into the surrounding plasma. The theory contains the observed barometric law relationship between electron density and electron temperatures and ion beam spreading in good agreement with measured results.

  9. Preliminary development of the Active Colonoscopy Training Model

    PubMed Central

    Choi, JungHun; Ravindra, Kale; Robert, Randolph; Drozek, David

    2011-01-01

    Formal colonoscopy training requires a significant amount of time and effort. In particular, it requires actual patients for a realistic learning experience. The quality of colonoscopy training varies, and includes didactic courses and procedures proctored by skilled surgeons. A colonoscopy training model is occasionally used as part of the training method, but the effects are minute due to both the simple and tedious training procedures. To enhance the educational effect of the colonoscopy training model, the Active Colonoscopy Training Model (ACTM) has been developed. ACTM is an interactive colonoscopy training device which can create the environment of a real colonoscopy procedure as closely as possible. It comprises a configurable rubber colon, a human torso, sensors, a display, and the control part. The ACTM provides audio and visual interaction to the trainee by monitoring important factors, such as forces caused by the distal tip and the shaft of the colonoscope and the pressure to open up the lumen and the localization of the distal tip. On the computer screen, the trainee can easily monitor the status of the colonoscopy, which includes the localization of the distal tip, maximum forces, pressure inside the colon, and surgery time. The forces between the rubber colon and the constraints inside the ACTM are measured and the real time display shows the results to the trainee. The pressure sensors will check the pressure at different parts of the colon. The real-time localized distal tip gives the colonoscopy trainee easier and more confident operation without introducing an additional device in the colonoscope. With the current need for colonoscopists and physicians, the ACTM can play an essential role resolving the problems of the current colonoscopy training model, and significantly improve the training quality of the colonoscopy. PMID:22915931

  10. Building a geological reference platform using sequence stratigraphy combined with geostatistical tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bourgine, Bernard; Lasseur, Éric; Leynet, Aurélien; Badinier, Guillaume; Ortega, Carole; Issautier, Benoit; Bouchet, Valentin

    2015-04-01

    In 2012 BRGM launched an extensive program to build the new French Geological Reference platform (RGF). Among the objectives of this program is to provide the public with validated, reliable and 3D-consistent geological data, with estimation of uncertainty. Approx. 100,000 boreholes over the whole French national territory provide a preliminary interpretation in terms of depths of main geological interfaces, but with an unchecked, unknown and often low reliability. The aim of this paper is to present the procedure that has been tested on two areas in France, in order to validate (or not) these boreholes, with the aim of being generalized as much as possible to the nearly 100,000 boreholes waiting for validation. The approach is based on the following steps, and includes the management of uncertainty at different steps: (a) Selection of a loose network of boreholes owning a logging or coring information enabling a reliable interpretation. This first interpretation is based on the correlation of well log data and allows defining 3D sequence stratigraphic framework identifying isochronous surfaces. A litho-stratigraphic interpretation is also performed. Be "A" the collection of all boreholes used for this step (typically 3 % of the total number of holes to be validated) and "B" the other boreholes to validate, (b) Geostatistical analysis of characteristic geological interfaces. The analysis is carried out firstly on the "A" type data (to validate the variogram model), then on the "B" type data and at last on "B" knowing "A". It is based on cross-validation tests and evaluation of the uncertainty associated to each geological interface. In this step, we take into account inequality constraints provided by boreholes that do not intersect all interfaces, as well as the "litho-stratigraphic pile" defining the formations and their relationships (depositing surfaces or erosion). The goal is to identify quickly and semi-automatically potential errors among the data, up to

  11. Preliminary Environmental Flow and Transport Modeling at the INEEL

    SciTech Connect

    Magnuson, Swen O; Mccarthy, James Michael; Navratil, James Dale

    1999-09-01

    The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) is located in southeastern Idaho in the USA. The primary mission since the laboratory was founded in 1949 has been nuclear reactor research. Fifty-two reactors have been built and operated on the INEEL. Other principal activities at the laboratory have been reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel. Low-level radioactive waste generated on site and mixed and transuranic waste from the Rocky Flats plutonium processing facility in Colorado has been disposed on the INEEL at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC). Waste disposal at the RWMC began in 1952 with shallow land burial in pits and trenches. The INEEL was placed on the National Priorities List (NPL) in 1989. The resulting environmental assessments of the potential negative health impacts of disposed waste at the RWMC have required the use of predictive numerical simulations. A petroleum reservoir simulator called TETRAD was modified for use in simulating environmental flow and transport. Use of this code has allowed the complex subsurface stratigraphy to be simulated, including an extensive region of unsaturated fractured basalt. Dual continual simulation approaches have been used to assess combined aqueous- and gaseous-phase transport of volatile organic compounds as well as dissolved-phase transport of radionuclides. Calibration of the simulator to available monitoring data has increased the confidence in the simulator results to the point where the model sensitivities are being used to direct additional characterization efforts. Eventually, as the model calibration improves and confidence in the model predictions increases, the simulator will be used as a decision tool for selecting remedial alternatives for the wastes buried at the RWMC. An overview of the overall program including a summary of laboratory actinide migration studies will be presented.

  12. Preliminary model for human lipoprotein metabolism in hyperlipoproteinemia.

    PubMed

    Phair, R D; Hammond, M G; Bowden, J A; Fried, M; Fisher, W R; Berman, M

    1975-12-01

    A model is proposed for the metabolism of plasma lipoprotein apoproteins based on studies of a hyperlipoproteinemic subject who received 2.5 mCi[3H]leucine intravenously. Measurements included apoprotein specific activities (apo-B and apo-C) of very low density lipoprotein (VLDL) and of three low density lipoprotein (LDL) subspecies, Sf 17 LDL, Sf 10 LDL, and Sf 4 LDL. Activities of plasma albumin were also determined. The data were analyzed using a compartmental model and the SAAM computer program. A chain-like series of compartments were necessary to simulate plasma VLDL kinetics, suggesting a multistep delipidation process. The data are consistent with the notion that VLDL is the dominant LDL precursor. Two modes of conversion from VLDL to LDL are required. After partial delipidation some VLDL is converted to the Sf 17 LDL, while the remainder undergoes further delipidation before being converted to Sf 4 LDL, the major plasma LDL component. Some direct release of LDL into plasma had to be introduced to fit the data, about 24% of total LDL production. The three LDL subspecies follow a precursor-product relationship (Sf 17 leads to Sf 10 leads to Sf 4). The analysis also indicates that in using labeled leucine as a tracer, the slow exchange of leucine with the total body protein pool must be considered in trying to resolve the LDL subsystem and in the estimation of steady-state apoprotein levels. In view of the fact that the proposed model is based predominantly on the data from a single patient, no generalizations can be made about parameter values. The study is most valuable, however, in pointing out metabolic pathways not considered before and in calling attention to variables that must be considered in the design of experiments to study lipoprotein kinetics.

  13. A Preliminary Ship Design Model for Cargo Throughput Optimization

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-06-01

    displacement weight [LT] cargo ship’s weight excluding fuel and propulsion system [LT] fuel weight of the fuel [LT] prop weight of the propulsion system ...9 where  is the total ship’s displacement, prop is the weight of the propulsion system , fuel is the weight of the fuel, and cargo is the weight...prediction using spreadsheet model,” Kobe University of Mercantile Marine, Kobe, Japan, 2003. [3] C. B. McKesson, “A parametric method for

  14. Field observations, preliminary model analysis, and aquifer thermal efficiency

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, R.T.; Delin, G.N.

    1993-01-01

    In the first model, the sensitivity analysis assumed 8 days of injection of 150°C water at 18.9 liters per second (L/s), 8 days of storage, and 8 days of withdrawal of hot water at 18.9 L/s. The analysis indicates that, for practical ranges of hydraulic and thermal properties, the ratio of horizontal to vertical hydraulic conductivity is the least important property and thermal dispersivity is the most important property used to compute temperature and aquifer thermal efficiency

  15. Preliminary Shape and Spin Axis Models for Two Asteroids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephens, Robert D.; Warner, Brian D.

    2015-04-01

    A combination of dense lightcurves obtained by the authors over several apparitions and sparse data was used to model shapes for two asteroids: the Mars-crosser (21028) 1989 TO and Hungaria member (32814) 1990 XZ. For 1989 TO, a reasonably reliable spin axis and period of (86°, 0°, 3.66527 h) was found, although one of (292°, -62°, 3.66527 h) cannot be formally excluded. The solution for 1990 XZ is ambiguous. While two solutions are presented, they are not considered very reliable determinations.

  16. A geostatistical extreme-value framework for fast simulation of natural hazard events.

    PubMed

    Youngman, Benjamin D; Stephenson, David B

    2016-05-01

    We develop a statistical framework for simulating natural hazard events that combines extreme value theory and geostatistics. Robust generalized additive model forms represent generalized Pareto marginal distribution parameters while a Student's t-process captures spatial dependence and gives a continuous-space framework for natural hazard event simulations. Efficiency of the simulation method allows many years of data (typically over 10 000) to be obtained at relatively little computational cost. This makes the model viable for forming the hazard module of a catastrophe model. We illustrate the framework by simulating maximum wind gusts for European windstorms, which are found to have realistic marginal and spatial properties, and validate well against wind gust measurements.

  17. Preliminary conceptual model for mineral evolution in Yucca Mountain

    SciTech Connect

    Duffy, C.J.

    1993-12-01

    A model is presented for mineral alteration in Yucca Mountain, Nevada, that suggests that the mineral transformations observed there are primarily controlled by the activity of aqueous silica. The rate of these reactions is related to the rate of evolution of the metastable silica polymorphs opal-CT and cristobalite assuming that a{sub SiO{sub 2(aq)}} is fixed at the equilibrium solubility of the most soluble silica polymorph present. The rate equations accurately predict the present depths of disappearance of opal-CT and cristobalite. The rate equations have also been used to predict the extent of future mineral alteration that may result from emplacement of a high-level nuclear waste repository in Yucca Mountain. Relatively small changes in mineralogy are predicted, but these predictions are based on the assumption that emplacement of a repository would not increase the pH of water in Yucca Mountain nor increase its carbonate content. Such changes may significantly increase mineral alteration. Some of the reactions currently occurring in Yucca Mountain consume H{sup +} and CO{sub 3}{sup 2{minus}}. Combining reaction rate models for these reactions with water chemistry data may make it possible to estimate water flux through the basal vitrophyre of the Topopah Spring Member and to help confirm the direction and rate of flow of groundwater in Yucca Mountain.

  18. Preliminary Fracture Model for The SE Geysers Geothermal Reservoir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furrey, L.; Furrey, L.; Wagoner, J.; Elkibbi, M.; Hutchings, L. J.

    2001-12-01

    In this study we combine interpretation of steam entry points, seismicity, shear-wave splitting, geology, and rock physics to develop a fracture model for the Southeast Geysers reservoir in an attempt to improve understanding of the permeability and steam flow within the reservoir. The Geysers is a dry steam field located approximately 140 km NNW of San Francisco, in Sonoma and Lake Counties in northern California. We developed this model by utilizing three-dimensional coordinates of wellbores and observations of steam entries encountered during drilling in conjunction with the locations of microearthquakes, the orientations of fractures from shear-wave splitting, geologic interpretation, and the result of rock physics interpretations. We utilize earthVision5.1TM visualization software in analyzing this data. We are interested in analyzing the fault, fractures, or fracture sets that appear to have the major control over fluid flow at reservoir depths. Faults offsetting the reservoir graywacke and felsite are generally identified by indirect methods. Fault detection within the reservoir rocks is difficult because the geology is relatively homogeneous and lacks marker horizons. Most high-angle faults mapped at the surface are truncated above the reservoir by thrust faults, and do not project to zones of high permeability within the reservoir. Thus, we utilize steam entry points along with geological formation topography to assist in the identification of faults at depth.

  19. Preliminary Model Results of Beach Profile Dynamics with Stratigraphy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reniers, A. J.; Koktas, M.; Gallagher, E. L.; Wadman, H. M.; Brodie, K. L.; Johnson, B. D.; McNinch, J.

    2014-12-01

    The presence of spatial variation in grain size within the surf and swash zone is often ignored in numerical modeling whereas Upon closer inspection, a broad range of grain sizes is visible on a beach. This could potentially lead to a significant mismatch between predictions and observations of profile evolution given the strong sensitivity of sediment transport formulae to the grain size. To explore this in more detail, numerical simulations with XBeach have been performed to simulate the observations of changes in beach profile and stratigraphy within the swash zone at Duck, NC, under a range of wave and tidal conditions (see presentations by Wadman et al., and Gallagher et al. for complementary information on the observations at this conference). The research focus is to establish the morphodynamic response to the sediment dynamics at short and longer time scales in the presence of stratigraphy. A better understanding of the mechanisms and subsequently improved modeling will provide more accurate predictions of the morphodynamic response of the beach during moderate and extreme conditions. It will also help in the interpretation of sediment layering of the beach to relate to past extreme storms on geological time scales.

  20. Preliminary Chaotic Model of Snapover on High Voltage Solar Cells

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackey, Willie R.

    1995-01-01

    High voltage power systems in space will interact with the space plasma in a variety of ways. One of these, Snapover, is characterized by a sudden enlargement of the electron current collection area across normally insulating surfaces. A power drain on solar array power systems will results from this enhanced current collection. Optical observations of the snapover phenomena in the laboratory indicates a functional relation between bia potential and surface glow area. This paper shall explore the potential benefits of modeling the relation between current and bia potential as an aspect of bifurcation analysis in chaos theory. Successful characterizations of snapover as a chaotic phenomena may provide a means of snapover prevention and control through chaotic synchronization.

  1. Preliminary characterization and modeling of SMA-based textile composites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masuda, Arata; Ni, Qing-Qing; Sone, Akira; Zhang, Run-Xin; Yamamura, Takahiko

    2004-07-01

    In this paper, we conduct a feasibility study to investigate the future potential of textile composites with shape memory alloys. Two different types of SMA-based textile composites are presented. First, a composite plate with embedded woven SMA layer is fabricated, and the stiffness tuning capability is evaluated by impact vibration tests. The results are not favorable, but may be improved by increasing the volume fraction of SMA, and by controlling the prestrain more accurately during the lamination process. The modeling and analysis methodology for woven SMA-based composites are briefly discussed. Then, the possibility of textile composites with SMA stitching is discussed, that is expected to give the composites multi-functions such as tunable stiffness, shape control and sensing capability, selectively distributed on demand.

  2. Modeling of enterprise information systems implementation: a preliminary investigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusuf, Yahaya Y.; Abthorpe, M. S.; Gunasekaran, Angappa; Al-Dabass, D.; Onuh, Spencer

    2001-10-01

    The business enterprise has never been in greater need of Agility and the current trend will continue unabated well into the future. It is now recognized that information system is both the foundation and a necessary condition for increased responsiveness. A successful implementation of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) can help a company to move towards delivering on its competitive objectives as it enables suppliers to reach out to customers beyond the borders of traditional market defined by geography. The cost of implementation, even when it is successful, could be significant. Bearing in mind the potential strategic benefits, it is important that the implementation project is managed effectively. To this end a project cost model against which to benchmark ongoing project expenditure versus activities completed has been proposed in this paper.

  3. Preliminary empirical model of inner boundary of ion plasma sheet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, J. B.; Zhang, D.; Reme, H.; Dandouras, I.; Sauvaud, J. A.; Fu, H. S.; Wei, X. H.

    2015-09-01

    The penetration of the plasma sheet into the inner magnetosphere is important to both ring current formation and spacecraft charging at geosynchronous orbit. This paper, using hot ion data recorded by HIA of TC-1/DSP, establishes an empirical model of the inner boundary of ion plasma sheet (IBIPS) on the near equatorial plane. All IBIPS are located inside geocentric radial distance of 9 RE. We divided local times (LT) into eight local time bins and found that during quiet times (Kp ⩽ 2-), the IBIPS is closest to the Earth on the pre-midnight side (LT = 1930-2130) and farthest on the dawn side (LT = 0430-0730), which differs from previous spiral models. The geocentric radius of IBIPS in each local time bin can be described by a linear fitting function: Rps = A + Bkp · Kp. The changing rate Bkp of the radius of IBIPS relative to Kp index on the midnight side (LT = 2230-0130) and post-night side (LT = 0130-0430) are the two largest (0.66 and 0.67), indicating that the IBIPS on the night side (LT = 2230-0430) moves fastest when Kp changes. Since the IBIPSs in different local times bins have different changing rates, both the size and shape of IBIPS change when Kp varies. The correlation coefficients between the radius of IBIPS and the instantaneous Kp increase with the increase of ΔT (the time difference between IBIPS crossing time and preceding Kp interval), which suggests that with the increase of ΔT, the radius of IBIPS is more and more controlled by instantaneous Kp, and the influence of preceding Kp becomes weaker. The response time of IBIPS to Kp is between 80 and 95 min. When ΔT > 95 min, the correlation coefficient basically keeps unchanged and only has a weak increase, suggesting that the IBIPS is mainly determined by the convection electric field represented by instantaneous Kp.

  4. MODEL SELECTION FOR GEOSTATISTICAL MODELS. (R829095C001)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  5. Geostatistical uncertainty of assessing air quality using high-spatial-resolution lichen data: A health study in the urban area of Sines, Portugal.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro, Manuel C; Pinho, P; Branquinho, C; Llop, Esteve; Pereira, Maria J

    2016-08-15

    In most studies correlating health outcomes with air pollution, personal exposure assignments are based on measurements collected at air-quality monitoring stations not coinciding with health data locations. In such cases, interpolators are needed to predict air quality in unsampled locations and to assign personal exposures. Moreover, a measure of the spatial uncertainty of exposures should be incorporated, especially in urban areas where concentrations vary at short distances due to changes in land use and pollution intensity. These studies are limited by the lack of literature comparing exposure uncertainty derived from distinct spatial interpolators. Here, we addressed these issues with two interpolation methods: regression Kriging (RK) and ordinary Kriging (OK). These methods were used to generate air-quality simulations with a geostatistical algorithm. For each method, the geostatistical uncertainty was drawn from generalized linear model (GLM) analysis. We analyzed the association between air quality and birth weight. Personal health data (n=227) and exposure data were collected in Sines (Portugal) during 2007-2010. Because air-quality monitoring stations in the city do not offer high-spatial-resolution measurements (n=1), we used lichen data as an ecological indicator of air quality (n=83). We found no significant difference in the fit of GLMs with any of the geostatistical methods. With RK, however, the models tended to fit better more often and worse less often. Moreover, the geostatistical uncertainty results showed a marginally higher mean and precision with RK. Combined with lichen data and land-use data of high spatial resolution, RK is a more effective geostatistical method for relating health outcomes with air quality in urban areas. This is particularly important in small cities, which generally do not have expensive air-quality monitoring stations with high spatial resolution. Further, alternative ways of linking human activities with their

  6. [Geostatistical analysis on distribution pattern of the tobacco budworm larva in Enshi, Hubei, China].

    PubMed

    Xia, Peng-Liang; Wang, Rui; Tan, Jun

    2014-03-01

    Tobacco budworm (Helicoverpa assulta) larvae feed on tobacco leaves (Nicotiana sp.), resulting in significant loss in tobacco production. Geostatistical method was used to analyze H. assulta spatial patterns and dynamics in this paper. The results showed that, H. assulta larvae appeared 40 days after the tobacco plants transplanting, and reached its peak at the early-mature period. The nested spherical and exponential model was the major model for tobacco budworm larva in the field, suggesting its aggregated distribution. The spatial variability C/(C0 + C) was larger than 0.75, which indicated H. assulta larva had wider structural variation and narrower random variation. There was a massive migration of tobacco budworm larva in the fast-growing stage of tobacco. Its quantity became stable after that, especially at the mature stage of tobacco.

  7. An assessment of gas emanation hazard using a geographic information system and geostatistics.

    PubMed

    Astorri, F; Beaubien, S E; Ciotoli, G; Lombardi, S

    2002-03-01

    This paper describes the use of geostatistical analysis and GIS techniques to assess gas emanation hazards. The Mt. Vulsini volcanic district was selected for this study because of the wide range of natural phenomena locally present that affect gas migration in the near surface. In addition, soil gas samples that were collected in this area should allow for a calibration between the generated risk/hazard models and the measured distribution of toxic gas species at surface. The approach used during this study consisted of three general stages. First data were digitally organized into thematic layers, then software functions in the GIS program "ArcView" were used to compare and correlate these various layers, and then finally the produced "potential-risk" map was compared with radon soil gas data in order to validate the model and/or to select zones for further, more-detailed soil gas investigations.

  8. Low Order Modeling Tools for Preliminary Pressure Gain Combustion Benefits Analyses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paxson, Daniel E.

    2012-01-01

    Pressure gain combustion (PGC) offers the promise of higher thermodynamic cycle efficiency and greater specific power in propulsion and power systems. This presentation describes a model, developed under a cooperative agreement between NASA and AFRL, for preliminarily assessing the performance enhancement and preliminary size requirements of PGC components either as stand-alone thrust producers or coupled with surrounding turbomachinery. The model is implemented in the Numerical Propulsion Simulation System (NPSS) environment allowing various configurations to be examined at numerous operating points. The validated model is simple, yet physics-based. It executes quickly in NPSS, yet produces realistic results.

  9. Soil Moisture Estimation by Assimilating L-Band Microwave Brightness Temperature with Geostatistics and Observation Localization

    PubMed Central

    Han, Xujun; Li, Xin; Rigon, Riccardo; Jin, Rui; Endrizzi, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    The observation could be used to reduce the model uncertainties with data assimilation. If the observation cannot cover the whole model area due to spatial availability or instrument ability, how to do data assimilation at locations not covered by observation? Two commonly used strategies were firstly described: One is covariance localization (CL); the other is observation localization (OL). Compared with CL, OL is easy to parallelize and more efficient for large-scale analysis. This paper evaluated OL in soil moisture profile characterizations, in which the geostatistical semivariogram was used to fit the spatial correlated characteristics of synthetic L-Band microwave brightness temperature measurement. The fitted semivariogram model and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter algorithm are combined together to weight and assimilate the observations within a local region surrounding the grid cell of land surface model to be analyzed. Six scenarios were compared: 1_Obs with one nearest observation assimilated, 5_Obs with no more than five nearest local observations assimilated, and 9_Obs with no more than nine nearest local observations assimilated. The scenarios with no more than 16, 25, and 36 local observations were also compared. From the results we can conclude that more local observations involved in assimilation will improve estimations with an upper bound of 9 observations in this case. This study demonstrates the potentials of geostatistical correlation representation in OL to improve data assimilation of catchment scale soil moisture using synthetic L-band microwave brightness temperature, which cannot cover the study area fully in space due to vegetation effects. PMID:25635771

  10. Soil moisture estimation by assimilating L-band microwave brightness temperature with geostatistics and observation localization.

    PubMed

    Han, Xujun; Li, Xin; Rigon, Riccardo; Jin, Rui; Endrizzi, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    The observation could be used to reduce the model uncertainties with data assimilation. If the observation cannot cover the whole model area due to spatial availability or instrument ability, how to do data assimilation at locations not covered by observation? Two commonly used strategies were firstly described: One is covariance localization (CL); the other is observation localization (OL). Compared with CL, OL is easy to parallelize and more efficient for large-scale analysis. This paper evaluated OL in soil moisture profile characterizations, in which the geostatistical semivariogram was used to fit the spatial correlated characteristics of synthetic L-Band microwave brightness temperature measurement. The fitted semivariogram model and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter algorithm are combined together to weight and assimilate the observations within a local region surrounding the grid cell of land surface model to be analyzed. Six scenarios were compared: 1_Obs with one nearest observation assimilated, 5_Obs with no more than five nearest local observations assimilated, and 9_Obs with no more than nine nearest local observations assimilated. The scenarios with no more than 16, 25, and 36 local observations were also compared. From the results we can conclude that more local observations involved in assimilation will improve estimations with an upper bound of 9 observations in this case. This study demonstrates the potentials of geostatistical correlation representation in OL to improve data assimilation of catchment scale soil moisture using synthetic L-band microwave brightness temperature, which cannot cover the study area fully in space due to vegetation effects.

  11. Bayesian Geostatistical Analysis and Ecoclimatic Determinants of Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis Infection among Horses

    PubMed Central

    Boysen, Courtney; Davis, Elizabeth G.; Beard, Laurie A.; Lubbers, Brian V.; Raghavan, Ram K.

    2015-01-01

    Kansas witnessed an unprecedented outbreak in Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis infection among horses, a disease commonly referred to as pigeon fever during fall 2012. Bayesian geostatistical models were developed to identify key environmental and climatic risk factors associated with C. pseudotuberculosis infection in horses. Positive infection status among horses (cases) was determined by positive test results for characteristic abscess formation, positive bacterial culture on purulent material obtained from a lanced abscess (n = 82), or positive serologic evidence of exposure to organism (≥1:512)(n = 11). Horses negative for these tests (n = 172)(controls) were considered free of infection. Information pertaining to horse demographics and stabled location were obtained through review of medical records and/or contact with horse owners via telephone. Covariate information for environmental and climatic determinants were obtained from USDA (soil attributes), USGS (land use/land cover), and NASA MODIS and NASA Prediction of Worldwide Renewable Resources (climate). Candidate covariates were screened using univariate regression models followed by Bayesian geostatistical models with and without covariates. The best performing model indicated a protective effect for higher soil moisture content (OR = 0.53, 95% CrI = 0.25, 0.71), and detrimental effects for higher land surface temperature (≥35°C) (OR = 2.81, 95% CrI = 2.21, 3.85) and habitat fragmentation (OR = 1.31, 95% CrI = 1.27, 2.22) for C. pseudotuberculosis infection status in horses, while age, gender and breed had no effect. Preventative and ecoclimatic significance of these findings are discussed. PMID:26473728

  12. Bayesian Geostatistical Analysis and Ecoclimatic Determinants of Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis Infection among Horses.

    PubMed

    Boysen, Courtney; Davis, Elizabeth G; Beard, Laurie A; Lubbers, Brian V; Raghavan, Ram K

    2015-01-01

    Kansas witnessed an unprecedented outbreak in Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis infection among horses, a disease commonly referred to as pigeon fever during fall 2012. Bayesian geostatistical models were developed to identify key environmental and climatic risk factors associated with C. pseudotuberculosis infection in horses. Positive infection status among horses (cases) was determined by positive test results for characteristic abscess formation, positive bacterial culture on purulent material obtained from a lanced abscess (n = 82), or positive serologic evidence of exposure to organism (≥ 1:512)(n = 11). Horses negative for these tests (n = 172)(controls) were considered free of infection. Information pertaining to horse demographics and stabled location were obtained through review of medical records and/or contact with horse owners via telephone. Covariate information for environmental and climatic determinants were obtained from USDA (soil attributes), USGS (land use/land cover), and NASA MODIS and NASA Prediction of Worldwide Renewable Resources (climate). Candidate covariates were screened using univariate regression models followed by Bayesian geostatistical models with and without covariates. The best performing model indicated a protective effect for higher soil moisture content (OR = 0.53, 95% CrI = 0.25, 0.71), and detrimental effects for higher land surface temperature (≥ 35°C) (OR = 2.81, 95% CrI = 2.21, 3.85) and habitat fragmentation (OR = 1.31, 95% CrI = 1.27, 2.22) for C. pseudotuberculosis infection status in horses, while age, gender and breed had no effect. Preventative and ecoclimatic significance of these findings are discussed.

  13. ON THE GEOSTATISTICAL APPROACH TO THE INVERSE PROBLEM. (R825689C037)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Abstract

    The geostatistical approach to the inverse problem is discussed with emphasis on the importance of structural analysis. Although the geostatistical approach is occasionally misconstrued as mere cokriging, in fact it consists of two steps: estimation of statist...

  14. Hierarchical Modeling and Robust Synthesis for the Preliminary Design of Large Scale Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koch, Patrick N.

    1997-01-01

    Large-scale complex systems are characterized by multiple interacting subsystems and the analysis of multiple disciplines. The design and development of such systems inevitably requires the resolution of multiple conflicting objectives. The size of complex systems, however, prohibits the development of comprehensive system models, and thus these systems must be partitioned into their constituent parts. Because simultaneous solution of individual subsystem models is often not manageable iteration is inevitable and often excessive. In this dissertation these issues are addressed through the development of a method for hierarchical robust preliminary design exploration to facilitate concurrent system and subsystem design exploration, for the concurrent generation of robust system and subsystem specifications for the preliminary design of multi-level, multi-objective, large-scale complex systems. This method is developed through the integration and expansion of current design techniques: Hierarchical partitioning and modeling techniques for partitioning large-scale complex systems into more tractable parts, and allowing integration of subproblems for system synthesis; Statistical experimentation and approximation techniques for increasing both the efficiency and the comprehensiveness of preliminary design exploration; and Noise modeling techniques for implementing robust preliminary design when approximate models are employed. Hierarchical partitioning and modeling techniques including intermediate responses, linking variables, and compatibility constraints are incorporated within a hierarchical compromise decision support problem formulation for synthesizing subproblem solutions for a partitioned system. Experimentation and approximation techniques are employed for concurrent investigations and modeling of partitioned subproblems. A modified composite experiment is introduced for fitting better predictive models across the ranges of the factors, and an approach for

  15. A geostatistical method applied to the geochemical study of the Chichinautzin Volcanic Field in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robidoux, P.; Roberge, J.; Urbina Oviedo, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    The origin of magmatism and the role of the subducted Coco's Plate in the Chichinautzin volcanic field (CVF), Mexico is still a subject of debate. It has been established that mafic magmas of alkali type (subduction) and calc-alkali type (OIB) are produced in the CVF and both groups cannot be related by simple fractional crystallization. Therefore, many geochemical studies have been done, and many models have been proposed. The main goal of the work present here is to provide a new tool for the visualization and interpretation of geochemical data using geostatistics and geospatial analysis techniques. It contains a complete geodatabase built from referred samples over the 2500 km2 area of CVF and its neighbour stratovolcanoes (Popocatepetl, Iztaccihuatl and Nevado de Toluca). From this database, map of different geochemical markers were done to visualise geochemical signature in a geographical manner, to test the statistic distribution with a cartographic technique and highlight any spatial correlations. The distribution and regionalization of the geochemical signatures can be viewed in a two-dimensional space using a specific spatial analysis tools from a Geographic Information System (GIS). The model of spatial distribution is tested with Linear Decrease (LD) and Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) interpolation technique because they best represent the geostatistical characteristics of the geodatabase. We found that ratio of Ba/Nb, Nb/Ta, Th/Nb show first order tendency, which means visible spatial variation over a large scale area. Monogenetic volcanoes in the center of the CVF have distinct values compare to those of the Popocatepetl-Iztaccihuatl polygenetic complex which are spatially well defined. Inside the Valley of Mexico, a large quantity of monogenetic cone in the eastern portion of CVF has ratios similar to the Iztaccihuatl and Popocatepetl complex. Other ratios like alkalis vs SiO2, V/Ti, La/Yb, Zr/Y show different spatial tendencies. In that case, second

  16. Spatial continuity measures for probabilistic and deterministic geostatistics

    SciTech Connect

    Isaaks, E.H.; Srivastava, R.M.

    1988-05-01

    Geostatistics has traditionally used a probabilistic framework, one in which expected values or ensemble averages are of primary importance. The less familiar deterministic framework views geostatistical problems in terms of spatial integrals. This paper outlines the two frameworks and examines the issue of which spatial continuity measure, the covariance C(h) or the variogram ..sigma..(h), is appropriate for each framework. Although C(h) and ..sigma..(h) were defined originally in terms of spatial integrals, the convenience of probabilistic notation made the expected value definitions more common. These now classical expected value definitions entail a linear relationship between C(h) and ..sigma..(h); the spatial integral definitions do not. In a probabilistic framework, where available sample information is extrapolated to domains other than the one which was sampled, the expected value definitions are appropriate; furthermore, within a probabilistic framework, reasons exist for preferring the variogram to the covariance function. In a deterministic framework, where available sample information is interpolated within the same domain, the spatial integral definitions are appropriate and no reasons are known for preferring the variogram. A case study on a Wiener-Levy process demonstrates differences between the two frameworks and shows that, for most estimation problems, the deterministic viewpoint is more appropriate. Several case studies on real data sets reveal that the sample covariance function reflects the character of spatial continuity better than the sample variogram. From both theoretical and practical considerations, clearly for most geostatistical problems, direct estimation of the covariance is better than the traditional variogram approach.

  17. A 3D Geostatistical Mapping Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Weiss, W. W.; Stevenson, Graig; Patel, Ketan; Wang, Jun

    1999-02-09

    This software provides accurate 3D reservoir modeling tools and high quality 3D graphics for PC platforms enabling engineers and geologists to better comprehend reservoirs and consequently improve their decisions. The mapping algorithms are fractals, kriging, sequential guassian simulation, and three nearest neighbor methods.

  18. Mercury emissions from coal combustion in Silesia, analysis using geostatistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zasina, Damian; Zawadzki, Jaroslaw

    2015-04-01

    Data provided by the UNEP's report on mercury [1] shows that solid fuel combustion in significant source of mercury emission to air. Silesia, located in southwestern Poland, is notably affected by mercury emission due to being one of the most industrialized Polish regions: the place of coal mining, production of metals, stone mining, mineral quarrying and chemical industry. Moreover, Silesia is the region with high population density. People are exposed to severe risk of mercury emitted from both: industrial and domestic sources (i.e. small household furnaces). Small sources have significant contribution to total emission of mercury. Official and statistical analysis, including prepared for international purposes [2] did not provide data about spatial distribution of the mercury emitted to air, however number of analysis on Polish public power and energy sector had been prepared so far [3; 4]. The distribution of locations exposed for mercury emission from small domestic sources is interesting matter merging information from various sources: statistical, economical and environmental. This paper presents geostatistical approach to distibution of mercury emission from coal combustion. Analysed data organized in 2 independent levels: individual, bottom-up approach derived from national emission reporting system [5; 6] and top down - regional data calculated basing on official statistics [7]. Analysis, that will be presented, will include comparison of spatial distributions of mercury emission using data derived from sources mentioned above. Investigation will include three voivodeships of Poland: Lower Silesian, Opole (voivodeship) and Silesian using selected geostatistical methodologies including ordinary kriging [8]. References [1] UNEP. Global Mercury Assessment 2013: Sources, Emissions, Releases and Environmental Transport. UNEP Chemicals Branch, Geneva, Switzerland, 2013. [2] NCEM. Poland's Informative Inventory Report 2014. NCEM at the IEP-NRI, 2014. http

  19. Prediction of regional flow duration curves: geostatistical techniques versus multivariate regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugliese, A.; Farmer, W. H.; Castellarin, A.; Archfield, S. A.; Vogel, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    A period-of-record flow duration curve (FDC) represents the relationship between the magnitude and frequency of daily streamflows. Prediction of FDCs in ungauged basins is of great importance in those locations characterized by sparse, or more often missing, streamflow observations. We present a detailed comparison of two approaches which are capable of predicting an FDC in ungauged basins. An adaptation of the geostatistical method Top-kriging employs a linear weighted average of dimensionless empirical FDCs, standardized for a reference streamflow value. Weights are the result of the application of Top-kriging over a point index which, empirically, expresses the similarity between curves. Dimensional FDCs are then reconstructed developing a similar Top-kriging-based model capable of predicting the reference streamflow in the same sites. The second method is based on regional multiple linear regressions and is one of the most common method for prediction of FDCs in ungauged sites. Comparisons of these two methods are made at 182, mostly unregulated, river catchments in the southeastern U.S. using a three-fold cross-validation algorithm. Our results reveal that the two methods perform very similarly throughout flow-regimes, showing average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.566 and 0.662 in natural scale, while 0.883 and 0.829 in log-transformed scale, for the geostatistical and the linear regression models, respectively. However, some complementarities are shown in the very low-flow regime, i.e. duration greater than 0.95, where the two models highlight different behaviors whether considering natural or log-transformed streamflows.

  20. Environmental Barrier Coating (EBC) Durability Modeling; An Overview and Preliminary Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Abdul-Aziz, A.; Bhatt, R. T.; Grady, J. E.; Zhu, D.

    2012-01-01

    A study outlining a fracture mechanics based model that is being developed to investigate crack growth and spallation of environmental barrier coating (EBC) under thermal cycling conditions is presented. A description of the current plan and a model to estimate thermal residual stresses in the coating and preliminary fracture mechanics concepts for studying crack growth in the coating are also discussed. A road map for modeling life and durability of the EBC and the results of FEA model(s) developed for predicting thermal residual stresses and the cracking behavior of the coating are generated and described. Further initial assessment and preliminary results showed that developing a comprehensive EBC life prediction model incorporating EBC cracking, degradation and spalling mechanism under stress and temperature gradients typically seen in turbine components is difficult. This is basically due to mismatch in thermal expansion difference between sub-layers of EBC as well as between EBC and substrate, diffusion of moisture and oxygen though the coating, and densification of the coating during operating conditions as well as due to foreign object damage, the EBC can also crack and spall from the substrate causing oxidation and recession and reducing the design life of the EBC coated substrate.

  1. A preliminary model to avoid the overestimation of sample size in bioequivalence studies.

    PubMed

    Ramírez, E; Abraira, V; Guerra, P; Borobia, A M; Duque, B; López, J L; Mosquera, B; Lubomirov, R; Carcas, A J; Frías, J

    2013-02-01

    Often the only available data in literature for sample size estimations in bioequivalence studies is intersubject variability, which tends to result in overestimation of sample size. In this paper, we proposed a preliminary model of intrasubject variability based on intersubject variability for Cmax and AUC data from randomized, crossovers, bioequivalence (BE) studies. From 93 Cmax and 121 AUC data from test-reference comparisons that fulfilled BE criteria, we calculated intersubject variability for the reference formulation and intrasubject variability from ANOVA. Lineal and exponential models (y=a(1-e-bx)) were fitted weighted by the inverse of the variance, to predict the intrasubject variability based on intersubject variability. To validate the model we calculated the coefficient of cross-validation of data from 30 new BE studies. The models fit very well (R2=0.997 and 0.990 for Cmax and AUC respectively) and the cross-validation correlation were 0.847 for Cmax and 0.572 for AUC. A preliminary model analyses allow us to estimate the intrasubject variability based on intersubject variability for sample size calculation purposes in BE studies. This approximation provides an opportunity for sample size reduction avoiding unnecessary exposure of healthy volunteers. Further modelling studies are desirable to confirm these results especially suggestions of the higher intersubject variability range.

  2. A multiple-point geostatistical approach to quantifying uncertainty for flow and transport simulation in geologically complex environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cronkite-Ratcliff, C.; Phelps, G. A.; Boucher, A.

    2011-12-01

    In many geologic settings, the pathways of groundwater flow are controlled by geologic heterogeneities which have complex geometries. Models of these geologic heterogeneities, and consequently, their effects on the simulated pathways of groundwater flow, are characterized by uncertainty. Multiple-point geostatistics, which uses a training image to represent complex geometric descriptions of geologic heterogeneity, provides a stochastic approach to the analysis of geologic uncertainty. Incorporating multiple-point geostatistics into numerical models provides a way to extend this analysis to the effects of geologic uncertainty on the results of flow simulations. We present two case studies to demonstrate the application of multiple-point geostatistics to numerical flow simulation in complex geologic settings with both static and dynamic conditioning data. Both cases involve the development of a training image from a complex geometric description of the geologic environment. Geologic heterogeneity is modeled stochastically by generating multiple equally-probable realizations, all consistent with the training image. Numerical flow simulation for each stochastic realization provides the basis for analyzing the effects of geologic uncertainty on simulated hydraulic response. The first case study is a hypothetical geologic scenario developed using data from the alluvial deposits in Yucca Flat, Nevada. The SNESIM algorithm is used to stochastically model geologic heterogeneity conditioned to the mapped surface geology as well as vertical drill-hole data. Numerical simulation of groundwater flow and contaminant transport through geologic models produces a distribution of hydraulic responses and contaminant concentration results. From this distribution of results, the probability of exceeding a given contaminant concentration threshold can be used as an indicator of uncertainty about the location of the contaminant plume boundary. The second case study considers a

  3. [Spatial structure analysis and distribution simulation of Therioaphis trifolii population based on geostatistics and GIS].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Rong; Leng, Yun-fa; Zhu, Meng-meng; Wang, Fang

    2007-11-01

    Based on geographic information system and geostatistics, the spatial structure of Therioaphis trifolii population of different periods in Yuanzhou district of Guyuan City, the southern Ningxia Province, was analyzed. The spatial distribution of Therioaphis trifolii population was also simulated by ordinary Kriging interpretation. The results showed that Therioaphis trifolii population of different periods was correlated spatially in the study area. The semivariograms of Therioaphis trifolii could be described by exponential model, indicating an aggregated spatial arrangement. The spatial variance varied from 34.13%-48.77%, and the range varied from 8.751-12.049 km. The degree and direction of aggregation showed that the trend was increased gradually from southwest to northeast. The dynamic change of Therioaphis trifolii population in different periods could be analyzed intuitively on the simulated maps of the spatial distribution from the two aspects of time and space, The occurrence position and degree of Therioaphis trifolii to a state of certain time could be determined easily.

  4. Geostatistical analysis of disease data: estimation of cancer mortality risk from empirical frequencies using Poisson kriging

    PubMed Central

    Goovaerts, Pierre

    2005-01-01

    associated uncertainty, while being easier to implement than a full Bayesian model. The availability of a public-domain executable makes the geostatistical analysis of health data, and its comparison to traditional smoothers, more accessible to common users. In future papers this methodology will be generalized to the simulation of the spatial distribution of risk values and the propagation of the uncertainty attached to predicted risks in local cluster analysis. PMID:16354294

  5. Precipitation estimation in mountainous terrain using multivariate geostatistics. Part II: isohyetal maps

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hevesi, Joseph A.; Flint, Alan L.; Istok, Jonathan D.

    1992-01-01

    Values of average annual precipitation (AAP) may be important for hydrologic characterization of a potential high-level nuclear-waste repository site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Reliable measurements of AAP are sparse in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain, and estimates of AAP were needed for an isohyetal mapping over a 2600-square-mile watershed containing Yucca Mountain. Estimates were obtained with a multivariate geostatistical model developed using AAP and elevation data from a network of 42 precipitation stations in southern Nevada and southeastern California. An additional 1531 elevations were obtained to improve estimation accuracy. Isohyets representing estimates obtained using univariate geostatistics (kriging) defined a smooth and continuous surface. Isohyets representing estimates obtained using multivariate geostatistics (cokriging) defined an irregular surface that more accurately represented expected local orographic influences on AAP. Cokriging results included a maximum estimate within the study area of 335 mm at an elevation of 7400 ft, an average estimate of 157 mm for the study area, and an average estimate of 172 mm at eight locations in the vicinity of the potential repository site. Kriging estimates tended to be lower in comparison because the increased AAP expected for remote mountainous topography was not adequately represented by the available sample. Regression results between cokriging estimates and elevation were similar to regression results between measured AAP and elevation. The position of the cokriging 250-mm isohyet relative to the boundaries of pinyon pine and juniper woodlands provided indirect evidence of improved estimation accuracy because the cokriging result agreed well with investigations by others concerning the relationship between elevation, vegetation, and climate in the Great Basin. Calculated estimation variances were also mapped and compared to evaluate improvements in estimation accuracy. Cokriging estimation variances

  6. Introduction to this Special Issue on Geostatistics and Scaling of Remote Sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    1999-01-01

    The germination of this special PE&RS issue began at the Royal Geographical Society (with the Institute of British Geographers)(RCS-IBC) annual meeting in January, 1997 held at the University of Exeter in Exeter, England. The cold and snow of an England winter were greatly tempered by the friendly and cordial discussions that ensued at the meeting on possible ways to foster both dialog and research across "the Big Pond" between geographers in the US and the UK on the use of geostatistics and geospatial techniques for remote sensing of land surface processes. It was decided that one way to stimulate and enhance cooperation on the application of geostatistics and geospatial methods in remote sensing was to hold parallel sessions on these topics at appropriate meeting venues in 1998 in both the US and the UK Selected papers given at these sessions would be published as a special issue of PE&RS on the US side, and as a special issue of Computers and Geosciences (C&G) on the UK side, to highlight the commonality in research on geostatistics and geospatial methods in remote sensing and spatial data analysis on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence, a session on "Ceostatistics and Geospatial Techniques for Remote Sensing of Land Surface Processes" was held at the Association of American Geographers (AAG) annual meeting in Boston, Massachusetts in March, 1998, sponsored by the AAG's Remote Sensing Specialty Group (RSSG). A similar session was held at the RGS-IBG annual meeting in Guildford, Surrey, England in January 1998, organized by the Modeling and Advanced Techniques Special Interest Group (MAT SIG) of the Remote Sensing Society (RSS). The six papers that in part, comprise this issue of PE&RS, are the US complement to such a dual journal publication effort. Both of us are co-editors of each of the journal special issues, with the lead editor of each journal being from their respective side of the Atlantic where the journals are published. The special

  7. Geostatistical prediction of flow-duration curves in an index-flow framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugliese, A.; Castellarin, A.; Brath, A.

    2014-09-01

    An empirical period-of-record flow-duration curve (FDC) describes the percentage of time (duration) in which a given streamflow was equaled or exceeded over an historical period of time. In many practical applications one has to construct FDCs in basins that are ungauged or where very few observations are available. We present an application strategy of top-kriging, which makes the geostatistical procedure capable of predicting FDCs in ungauged catchments. Previous applications of top-kriging mainly focused on the prediction of point streamflow indices (e.g. flood quantiles, low-flow indices, etc.); here the procedure is used to predict the entire curve in ungauged sites as a weighted average of standardised empirical FDCs through the traditional linear-weighting scheme of kriging methods. In particular, we propose to standardise empirical FDCs by a reference index-flow value (i.e. mean annual flow, or mean annual precipitation × the drainage area) and to compute the overall negative deviation of the curves from this reference value. We then propose to use these values, which we term total negative deviation (TND), for expressing the hydrological similarity between catchments and for deriving the geostatistical weights. We focus on the prediction of FDCs for 18 unregulated catchments located in central Italy, and we quantify the accuracy of the proposed technique under various operational conditions through an extensive cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. The cross-validation points out that top-kriging is a reliable approach for predicting FDCs with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measures ranging from 0.85 to 0.96 (depending on the model settings) very low biases over the entire duration range, and an enhanced representation of the low-flow regime relative to other regionalisation models that were recently developed for the same study region.

  8. Wave climate model of the Mid-Atlantic shelf and shoreline (Virginian Sea): Model development, shelf geomorphology, and preliminary results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldsmith, V.; Morris, W. D.; Byrne, R. J.; Whitlock, C. H.

    1974-01-01

    A computerized wave climate model is developed that applies linear wave theory and shelf depth information to predict wave behavior as they pass over the continental shelf as well as the resulting wave energy distributions along the coastline. Reviewed are also the geomorphology of the Mid-Atlantic Continental Shelf, wave computations resulting from 122 wave input conditions, and a preliminary analysis of these data.

  9. Geostatistics and cost-effective environmental remediation

    SciTech Connect

    Rautman, C.A.

    1996-04-12

    Numerous sites within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex have been contaminated with various radioactive and hazardous materials by defense-related activities during the post-World War II era. The perception is that characterization and remediation of these contaminated sites will be too costly using currently available technology. Consequently, the DOE Office of Technology Development has funded development of a number of alternative processes for characterizing and remediating these sites. The former Feed-Materials Processing Center near Fernald, Ohio (USA), was selected for demonstrating several innovative technologies. Contamination at the Fernald site consists principally of particulate uranium and derivative compounds in surficial soil. A field-characterization demonstration program was conducted during the summer of 1994 specifically to demonstrate the relative economic performance of seven proposed advanced-characterization tools for measuring uranium activity of in-situ soils. These innovative measurement technologies are principally radiation detectors of varied designs. Four industry-standard measurement technologies, including conventional, regulatory-agency-accepted soil sampling followed by laboratory geochemical analysis, were also demonstrated during the program for comparative purposes. A risk-based economic-decision model has been used to evaluate the performance of these alternative characterization tools. The decision model computes the dollar value of an objective function for each of the different characterization approaches. The methodology not only can assist site operators to choose among engineering alternatives for site characterization and/or remediation, but also can provide an objective and quantitative basis for decisions with respect to the completeness of site characterization.

  10. Validating spatial structure in canopy water content using geostatistics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sanderson, E. W.; Zhang, M. H.; Ustin, S. L.; Rejmankova, E.; Haxo, R. S.

    1995-01-01

    Heterogeneity in ecological phenomena are scale dependent and affect the hierarchical structure of image data. AVIRIS pixels average reflectance produced by complex absorption and scattering interactions between biogeochemical composition, canopy architecture, view and illumination angles, species distributions, and plant cover as well as other factors. These scales affect validation of pixel reflectance, typically performed by relating pixel spectra to ground measurements acquired at scales of 1m(exp 2) or less (e.g., field spectra, foilage and soil samples, etc.). As image analysis becomes more sophisticated, such as those for detection of canopy chemistry, better validation becomes a critical problem. This paper presents a methodology for bridging between point measurements and pixels using geostatistics. Geostatistics have been extensively used in geological or hydrogeolocial studies but have received little application in ecological studies. The key criteria for kriging estimation is that the phenomena varies in space and that an underlying controlling process produces spatial correlation between the measured data points. Ecological variation meets this requirement because communities vary along environmental gradients like soil moisture, nutrient availability, or topography.

  11. Spatial analysis of hazardous waste data using geostatistics

    SciTech Connect

    Zirschky, J.H.

    1984-01-01

    The objective of this investigation was to determine if geostatistics could be a useful tool for evaluating hazardous waste sites. Three sites contaminated by dioxin (2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD)) were investigated. The first site evaluated was a creek into which TCDD-contaminated soil had eroded. The second site was a town in which TCDD-contaminated wastes had been sprayed onto the streets. Finally, the third site was a highway of which the shoulders were contaminated by dust deposition from a nearby hazardous waste site. The distribution of TCDD at the first and third sites were investigated using kriging, an optimal estimation technique. By using kriging, the areas of both sites requiring cleanup were successfully identified. At the second site, the town, satisfactory results were not obtained. The distribution of contamination in this town is believed to be very heterogeneous; thus, reasonable estimates could not be obtained. Additional sampling was therefore recommended at this site. Based upon this research, geostatistics appears to be a very useful tool for evaluating a hazardous waste site if the distribution of contaminants at the site is homogeneous, or can be divided into homogeneous areas.

  12. A Preliminary and Simplified Closed Brayton Cycle Modeling for a Space Reactor Application

    SciTech Connect

    Guimaraes, Lamartine Nogueira Frutuoso; Camillo, Giannino Ponchio

    2008-01-21

    The Nuclear Energy Division (ENU) of the Institute for Advanced Studies (IEAv) has started a preliminary design study for a Closed Brayton Cycle Loop (CBCL) aimed at a space reactor application. The main objectives of the study are: 1) to establish a starting concept for the CBCL components specifications, and 2) to build a demonstrative simulator of CBCL. This preliminary design study is developing the CBCL around the NOELLE 60290 turbo machine. The actual nuclear reactor study is being conducted independently. Because of that, a conventional heat source is being used for the CBCL, in this preliminary design phase. This paper describes the steady state simulator of the CBCL operating with NOELLE 60290 turbo machine. In principle, several gases are being considered as working fluid, as for instance: air, helium, nitrogen, CO{sub 2} and gas mixtures such as helium and xenon. However, for this first application pure helium will be used as working fluid. Simplified models of heat and mass transfer were developed to simulate thermal components. Future efforts will focus on implementing a graphical interface to display the thermal process variables in steady state and to keep track of the modifications being implemented at the NOELLE 60290 turbo machine in order to build the CBCL.

  13. A Preliminary Data Model for Orbital Flight Dynamics in Shuttle Mission Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    ONeill, John; Shalin, Valerie L.

    2000-01-01

    The Orbital Flight Dynamics group in Shuttle Mission Control is investigating new user interfaces in a project called RIOTS [RIOTS 2000]. Traditionally, the individual functions of hardware and software guide the design of displays, which results in an aggregated, if not integrated interface. The human work system has then been designed and trained to navigate, operate and integrate the processors and displays. The aim of RIOTS is to reduce the cognitive demands of the flight controllers by redesigning the user interface to support the work of the flight controller. This document supports the RIOTS project by defining a preliminary data model for Orbital Flight Dynamics. Section 2 defines an information-centric perspective. An information-centric approach aims to reduce the cognitive workload of the flight controllers by reducing the need for manual integration of information across processors and displays. Section 3 describes the Orbital Flight Dynamics domain. Section 4 defines the preliminary data model for Orbital Flight Dynamics. Section 5 examines the implications of mapping the data model to Orbital Flight Dynamics current information systems. Two recurring patterns are identified in the Orbital Flight Dynamics work the iteration/rework cycle and the decision-making/information integration/mirroring role relationship. Section 6 identifies new requirements on Orbital Flight Dynamics work and makes recommendations based on changing the information environment, changing the implementation of the data model, and changing the two recurring patterns.

  14. Audiomagnetotelluric Data and Preliminary Two-Dimensional Models from Spring, Dry Lake, and Delamar Valleys, Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McPhee, Darcy K.; Chuchel, Bruce A.; Pellerin, Louise

    2008-01-01

    This report presents audiomagnetotelluric (AMT) data along fourteen profiles in Spring, Delamar, and Dry Lake Valleys, and the corresponding preliminary two-dimensional (2-D) inverse models. The AMT method is a valuable tool for estimating the electrical resistivity of the Earth over depth ranges from a few meters to less than one kilometer, and it is important for revealing subsurface structure and stratigraphy within the Basin and Range province of eastern Nevada, which can be used to define the geohydrologic framework of the region. We collected AMT data by using the Geometrics StrataGem EH4 system. Profiles were 0.7 - 3.2 km in length with station spacing of 50-400 m. Data were recorded in a coordinate system parallel to and perpendicular to the regional geologic-strike direction with Z positive down. We show AMT station locations, sounding curves of apparent resistivity, phase, and coherency, and 2-D models of subsurface resistivity along the profiles. The 2-D inverse models are computed from the transverse electric (TE), transverse magnetic (TM), and TE+TM mode data by using a conjugate gradient, finite-difference method. Preliminary interpretation of the 2-D models defines the structural framework of the basins and the resistivity contrasts between alluvial basin-fill, volcanic units, and carbonate basement rocks.

  15. Geostatistical Methods For Determination of Roughness, Topography, And Changes of Antarctic Ice Streams From SAR And Radar Altimeter Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Herzfeld, Ute C.

    2002-01-01

    The central objective of this project has been the development of geostatistical methods fro mapping elevation and ice surface characteristics from satellite radar altimeter (RA) and Syntheitc Aperture Radar (SAR) data. The main results are an Atlas of elevation maps of Antarctica, from GEOSAT RA data and an Atlas from ERS-1 RA data, including a total of about 200 maps with 3 km grid resolution. Maps and digital terrain models are applied to monitor and study changes in Antarctic ice streams and glaciers, including Lambert Glacier/Amery Ice Shelf, Mertz and Ninnis Glaciers, Jutulstraumen Glacier, Fimbul Ice Shelf, Slessor Glacier, Williamson Glacier and others.

  16. Preliminary assessment of the behavioral activation model in Japanese undergraduate students.

    PubMed

    Takagaki, Koki; Okajima, Isa; Kunisato, Yoshihiko; Nakajima, Shun; Kanai, Yoshihiro; Ishikawa, Shin-Ichi; Sakano, Yuji

    2013-02-01

    Many studies have reported that behavioral activation is an effective intervention for depression. The behavioral activation model is based on several formulations. For example, depressive mood leads to avoidant behaviors, avoidance negatively affects social contacts, decreased socialization lessens opportunities for positive reinforcement, and a decrease in positive reinforcement results in more depressive mood. The purpose of this study was to examine relationships among avoidant behavior, social contact, frequency of positive reinforcement, and depressive mood by using structural equation modeling to assess support for aspects of this behavioral activation model. Participants were 630 Japanese undergraduate students and vocational school students. Results provided preliminary support for the model. Treating both avoidance and activating behavior might contribute to decreased impairment.

  17. Preliminary structural sizing of a Mach 3.0 high-speed civil transport model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blackburn, Charles L.

    1992-01-01

    An analysis has been performed pertaining to the structural resizing of a candidate Mach 3.0 High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) conceptual design using a computer program called EZDESIT. EZDESIT is a computer program which integrates the PATRAN finite element modeling program to the COMET finite element analysis program for the purpose of calculating element sizes or cross sectional dimensions. The purpose of the present report is to document the procedure used in accomplishing the preliminary structural sizing and to present the corresponding results.

  18. A dispersion model approach to the preliminary design of adsorber beds for trace contaminants

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Madey, R.; Czayka, M.; Forsythe, R.; Povlis, J.; Yin, K.

    1976-01-01

    It is shown that a dispersion model for the transport of a gas through a porous medium can be useful in the preliminary design of adsorber beds for the control of trace contaminants. The transmission function is considered, taking into account the transmission of 102-ppm acetaldehyde in helium flowing at various flow rates through an absorber bed. The experiments were conducted at a temperature of 25.0 C. Attention is given to a representation of the experimental breakthrough curve, the volume adsorption capacity, temperature studies, and correlations.

  19. Formal Modeling and Analysis of a Preliminary Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS)Concept

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carrreno, Victor A.; Gottliebsen, Hanne; Butler, Ricky; Kalvala, Sara

    2004-01-01

    New concepts for automating air traffic management functions at small non-towered airports raise serious safety issues associated with the software implementations and their underlying key algorithms. The criticality of such software systems necessitates that strong guarantees of the safety be developed for them. In this paper we present a formal method for modeling and verifying such systems using the PVS theorem proving system. The method is demonstrated on a preliminary concept of operation for the Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) project at NASA Langley.

  20. Modeling of Particle Acceleration at Multiple Shocks via Diffusive Shock Acceleration: Preliminary Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, L. Neergaard; Zank, G. P.

    2013-01-01

    Successful forecasting of energetic particle events in space weather models require algorithms for correctly predicting the spectrum of ions accelerated from a background population of charged particles. We present preliminary results from a model that diffusively accelerates particles at multiple shocks. Our basic approach is related to box models in which a distribution of particles is diffusively accelerated inside the box while simultaneously experiencing decompression through adiabatic expansion and losses from the convection and diffusion of particles outside the box. We adiabatically decompress the accelerated particle distribution between each shock by either the method explored in Melrose and Pope (1993) and Pope and Melrose (1994) or by the approach set forth in Zank et al. (2000) where we solve the transport equation by a method analogous to operator splitting. The second method incorporates the additional loss terms of convection and diffusion and allows for the use of a variable time between shocks. We use a maximum injection energy (E(sub max)) appropriate for quasi-parallel and quasi-perpendicular shocks and provide a preliminary application of the diffusive acceleration of particles by multiple shocks with frequencies appropriate for solar maximum (i.e., a non-Markovian process).

  1. Finite-element-analysis model and preliminary ground testing of controls-structures interaction evolutionary model reflector

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reaves, Mercedes C.; Belvin, W. Keith; Bailey, James P.

    1992-01-01

    Results of two different nonlinear finite element analyses and preliminary test results for the final design of the Controls-Structures Interaction Evolutionary Model are presented. Load-deflection data bases are generalized from analysis and testing of the 16-foot diameter, dish shaped reflector. Natural frequencies and mode shapes are obtained from vibrational analysis. Experimental and analytical results show similar trends; however, future test hardware modifications and finite element model refinement would be necessary to obtain better correlation. The two nonlinear analysis procedures are both adequate techniques for the analysis of prestressed structures with complex geometries.

  2. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Progress and Preliminary Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenzweig, C.

    2011-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and agricultural trade modeling groups around the world. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Recent progress and the current status of AgMIP will be presented, highlighting three areas of activity: preliminary results from crop pilot studies, outcomes from regional workshops, and emerging scientific challenges. AgMIP crop modeling efforts are being led by pilot studies, which have been established for wheat, maize, rice, and sugarcane. These crop-specific initiatives have proven instrumental in testing and contributing to AgMIP protocols, as well as creating preliminary results for aggregation and input to agricultural trade models. Regional workshops are being held to encourage collaborations and set research activities in motion for key agricultural areas. The first of these workshops was hosted by Embrapa and UNICAMP and held in Campinas, Brazil. Outcomes from this meeting have informed crop modeling research activities within South America, AgMIP protocols, and future regional workshops. Several scientific challenges have emerged and are currently being addressed by AgMIP researchers. Areas of particular interest include geospatial weather generation, ensemble methods for climate scenarios and crop models, spatial aggregation of field-scale yields to regional and global production, and characterization of future changes in climate variability.

  3. High-performance computational and geostatistical experiments for testing the capabilities of 3-d electrical tomography

    SciTech Connect

    Carle, S. F.; Daily, W. D.; Newmark, R. L.; Ramirez, A.; Tompson, A.

    1999-01-19

    This project explores the feasibility of combining geologic insight, geostatistics, and high-performance computing to analyze the capabilities of 3-D electrical resistance tomography (ERT). Geostatistical methods are used to characterize the spatial variability of geologic facies that control sub-surface variability of permeability and electrical resistivity Synthetic ERT data sets are generated from geostatistical realizations of alluvial facies architecture. The synthetic data sets enable comparison of the "truth" to inversion results, quantification of the ability to detect particular facies at particular locations, and sensitivity studies on inversion parameters

  4. Geo-statistical modeling to evaluate the socio-economic impacts of households in the context of low-lying areas conversion in Colombo metropolitan region-Sri Lanka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemakumara, GPTS; Rainis, Ruslan

    2015-02-01

    Living in Low-lying areas is a challenging task, but due to the lack of suitable land at affordable prices, thousands of householders have been establishing their own houses on Low-lying areas. Manipulation and conversion of low lying areas have led to an increase in the frequency and severity of micro disasters because the cumulative effect of these settlements is very high. Therefore, it is needed to examine how individual households have been emerging in Low-lying areas. This process is primarily influenced and controlled by Socio-economic factors. In the field survey conducted for this study, 388 householders were interviewed face to face to obtain the primary data. Collected data were applied to the Multivariate binary logistic Model. The Dependent variable of the model was set as Stable Houses and Non-Stable Houses based on the weighted values that were obtained from the field observations. Independent variables of this study are nine key aspects of the socio-economic conditions in these areas. Units of analysis of the study were taken as individual housing plots in the study area. The particular combination of Socio-Economic factors that exerted influence on each housing plot was measured using predicted probability value of logistic model and linked it with GIS land plot's map. Accuracy of Final Model is 86.9 % and probability level of influencing factors given a clear idea about household distribution and status while providing guidance about how the planning authorities should monitor and manage low lying areas, taking into consideration the present housing condition of these areas.

  5. Preliminary assessment of PWR Steam Generator modelling in RELAP5/MOD3. International Agreeement Report

    SciTech Connect

    Preece, R.J.; Putney, J.M.

    1993-07-01

    A preliminary assessment of Steam Generator (SG) modelling in the PWR thermal-hydraulic code RELAP5/MOD3 is presented. The study is based on calculations against a series of steady-state commissioning tests carried out on the Wolf Creek PWR over a range of load conditions. Data from the tests are used to assess the modelling of primary to secondary side heat transfer and, in particular, to examine the effect of reverting to the standard form of the Chen heat transfer correlation in place of the modified form applied in RELAP5/MOD2. Comparisons between the two versions of the code are also used to show how the new interphase drag model in RELAP5/MOD3 affects the calculation of SG liquid inventory and the void fraction profile in the riser.

  6. Modeling of Particle Acceleration at Multiple Shocks Via Diffusive Shock Acceleration: Preliminary Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, Linda Neergaard; Zank, Gary P.

    2013-01-01

    We present preliminary results from a model that diffusively accelerates particles at multiple shocks. Our basic approach is related to box models (Protheroe and Stanev, 1998; Moraal and Axford, 1983; Ball and Kirk, 1992; Drury et al., 1999) in which a distribution of particles is diffusively accelerated inside the box while simultaneously experiencing decompression through adiabatic expansion and losses from the convection and diffusion of particles outside the box (Melrose and Pope, 1993; Zank et al., 2000). We adiabatically decompress the accelerated particle distribution between each shock by either the method explored in Melrose and Pope (1993) and Pope and Melrose (1994) or by the approach set forth in Zank et al. (2000) where we solve the transport equation by a method analogous to operator splitting. The second method incorporates the additional loss terms of convection and diffusion and allows for the use of a variable time between shocks. We use a maximum injection energy (Emax) appropriate for quasi-parallel and quasi-perpendicular shocks (Zank et al., 2000, 2006; Dosch and Shalchi, 2010) and provide a preliminary application of the diffusive acceleration of particles by multiple shocks with frequencies appropriate for solar maximum (i.e., a non-Markovian process).

  7. [Spatial distribution of soil animals: a geostatistical approach].

    PubMed

    Gongal'skiĭ, K B; Zaĭtsev, A S; Savin, F A

    2009-01-01

    Spatial distribution is one of the main parameters of populations of soil animals. Spatial soil ecology having been developing during last decades bases animal distribution estimates on the geostatistic approach. A simple principle underlying the latter's methodology is that samples placed close to each other have more similarity than those distantly placed, it is usually called autocorrelation. The principles of basic statistics cannot be applied to autocorrelated data. Apiplying variograms, Mantel test, Moran index, and SADIE statistics enables to reveal the size of clusters of both soil parameters and soil animal aggregations. This direction of investigations quite popular in the western literature is just rarely employed by Russian soil ecologists. Statistically correct procedures allow developing field sampling methodology that is vital in applied studies of soil ecology, namely, in bioindication and ecotoxicology of soils, in the assessment of biological resources in terms of abundance and biomass of soil animals. This methodology has a decisive importance in the development of soil biogeography.

  8. Bayesian geostatistics in health cartography: the perspective of malaria

    PubMed Central

    Patil, Anand P.; Gething, Peter W.; Piel, Frédéric B.; Hay, Simon I.

    2011-01-01

    Maps of parasite prevalences and other aspects of infectious diseases that vary in space are widely used in parasitology. However, spatial parasitological datasets rarely, if ever, have sufficient coverage to allow exact determination of such maps. Bayesian geostatistics (BG) is a method for finding a large sample of maps that can explain a dataset, in which maps that do a better job of explaining the data are more likely to be represented. This sample represents the knowledge that the analyst has gained from the data about the unknown true map. BG provides a conceptually simple way to convert these samples to predictions of features of the unknown map, for example regional averages. These predictions account for each map in the sample, yielding an appropriate level of predictive precision. PMID:21420361

  9. Interactive Declustering of Spatial Environmental Data for Geostatistical Analyses

    SciTech Connect

    Christopher P. Oertel; John R. Giles; Stanley M. Miller

    2009-01-01

    Clustered sampling often results during environmental site investigations when localized areas are over-sampled due to specific concerns in those areas or due to monitoring programs focused on specific zones. An interactive, nearest-neighbor method for efficient spatial declustering has been developed as part of the ongoing monitoring and assessment of Cs-137 concentrations in soils at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) site. Insitu field measurements of Cs-137 have been obtained with a field gamma-ray spectrometer using a sampling layout with points concentrated around several former nuclear processing facilities. The spatial declustering process allows for more useful and productive geostatistical studies focused on characterization of spatial dependence and subsequent spatial estimation to generate maps that depict Cs-137 concentrations across the site.

  10. Bayesian geostatistics in health cartography: the perspective of malaria.

    PubMed

    Patil, Anand P; Gething, Peter W; Piel, Frédéric B; Hay, Simon I

    2011-06-01

    Maps of parasite prevalences and other aspects of infectious diseases that vary in space are widely used in parasitology. However, spatial parasitological datasets rarely, if ever, have sufficient coverage to allow exact determination of such maps. Bayesian geostatistics (BG) is a method for finding a large sample of maps that can explain a dataset, in which maps that do a better job of explaining the data are more likely to be represented. This sample represents the knowledge that the analyst has gained from the data about the unknown true map. BG provides a conceptually simple way to convert these samples to predictions of features of the unknown map, for example regional averages. These predictions account for each map in the sample, yielding an appropriate level of predictive precision.

  11. Medical Geography: a Promising Field of Application for Geostatistics.

    PubMed

    Goovaerts, P

    2009-01-01

    The analysis of health data and putative covariates, such as environmental, socio-economic, behavioral or demographic factors, is a promising application for geostatistics. It presents, however, several methodological challenges that arise from the fact that data are typically aggregated over irregular spatial supports and consist of a numerator and a denominator (i.e. population size). This paper presents an overview of recent developments in the field of health geostatistics, with an emphasis on three main steps in the analysis of areal health data: estimation of the underlying disease risk, detection of areas with significantly higher risk, and analysis of relationships with putative risk factors. The analysis is illustrated using age-adjusted cervix cancer mortality rates recorded over the 1970-1994 period for 118 counties of four states in the Western USA. Poisson kriging allows the filtering of noisy mortality rates computed from small population sizes, enhancing the correlation with two putative explanatory variables: percentage of habitants living below the federally defined poverty line, and percentage of Hispanic females. Area-to-point kriging formulation creates continuous maps of mortality risk, reducing the visual bias associated with the interpretation of choropleth maps. Stochastic simulation is used to generate realizations of cancer mortality maps, which allows one to quantify numerically how the uncertainty about the spatial distribution of health outcomes translates into uncertainty about the location of clusters of high values or the correlation with covariates. Last, geographically-weighted regression highlights the non-stationarity in the explanatory power of covariates: the higher mortality values along the coast are better explained by the two covariates than the lower risk recorded in Utah.

  12. Estimating transmissivity in the Edwards Aquifer using upscaling, geostatistics, and Bayesian updating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Painter, S. L.; Jiang, Y.; Woodbury, A. D.

    2002-12-01

    The Edwards Aquifer, a highly heterogeneous karst aquifer located in south central Texas, is the sole source of drinking water for more than one million people. Hydraulic conductivity (K) measurements in the Edwards Aquifer are sparse, highly variable (log-K variance of 6.4), and are mostly from single-well drawdown tests that are appropriate for the spatial scale of a few meters. To support ongoing efforts to develop a groundwater management (MODFLOW) model of the San Antonio segment of the Edwards Aquifer, a multistep procedure was developed to assign hydraulic parameters to the 402 m x 402 m computational cells intended for the management model. The approach used a combination of nonparametric geostatistical analysis, stochastic simulation, numerical upscaling, and automatic model calibration based on Bayesian updating [1,2]. Indicator correlograms reveal a nested spatial structure in the well-test K of the confined zone, with practical correlation ranges of 3,600 and 15,000 meters and a large nugget effect. The fitted geostatistical model was used in unconditional stochastic simulations by the sequential indicator simulation method. The resulting realizations of K, defined at the scale of the well tests, were then numerically upscaled to the block scale. A new geostatistical model was fitted to the upscaled values. The upscaled model was then used to cokrige the block-scale K based on the well-test K. The resulting K map was then converted to transmissivity (T) using deterministically mapped aquifer thickness. When tested in a forward groundwater model, the upscaled T reproduced hydraulic heads better than a simple kriging of the well-test values (mean error of -3.9 meter and mean-absolute-error of 12 meters, as compared with -13 and 17 meters for the simple kriging). As the final step in the study, the upscaled T map was used as the prior distribution in an inverse procedure based on Bayesian updating [1,2]. When input to the forward groundwater model, the

  13. Geostatistical analysis of space variation in underground water various quality parameters in Kłodzko water intake area (SW part of Poland)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Namysłowska-Wilczyńska, Barbara

    2016-09-01

    This paper presents selected results of research connected with the development of a (3D) geostatistical hydrogeochemical model of the Kłodzko Drainage Basin, dedicated to the spatial variation in the different quality parameters of underground water in the water intake area (SW part of Poland). The research covers the period 2011-2012. Spatial analyses of the variation in various quality parameters, i.e., contents of: iron, manganese, ammonium ion, nitrate ion, phosphate ion, total organic carbon, pH redox potential and temperature, were carried out on the basis of the chemical determinations of the quality parameters of underground water samples taken from the wells in the water intake area. Spatial variation in the parameters was analyzed on the basis of data obtained (November 2011) from tests of water taken from 14 existing wells with a depth ranging from 9.5 to 38.0 m b.g.l. The latest data (January 2012) were obtained (gained) from 3 new piezometers, made in other locations in the relevant area. A depth of these piezometers amounts to 9-10 m. Data derived from 14 wells (2011) and 14 wells + 3 piezometers (2012) were subjected to spatial analyses using geostatistical methods. The evaluation of basic statistics of the quality parameters, including their histograms of distributions, scatter diagrams and correlation coefficient values r were presented. The directional semivariogram function γ(h) and the ordinary (block) kriging procedure were used to build the 3D geostatistical model. The geostatistical parameters of the theoretical models of directional semivariograms of the water quality parameters under study, calculated along the wells depth (taking into account the terrain elevation), were used in the ordinary (block) kriging estimation. The obtained results of estimation, i.e., block diagrams allowed us to determine the levels of increased values of estimated averages Z* of underground water quality parameters.

  14. Use of a Transition Probability/Markov Approach to Improve Geostatistical of Facies Architecture

    SciTech Connect

    Carle, S.F.

    2000-11-01

    Facies may account for the largest permeability contrasts within the reservoir model at the scale relevant to production. Conditional simulation of the spatial distribution of facies is one of the most important components of building a reservoir model. Geostatistical techniques are widely used to produce realistic and geologically plausible realizations of facies architecture. However, there are two stumbling blocks to the traditional indicator variogram-based approaches: (1) intensive data sets are needed to develop models of spatial variability by empirical curve-fitting to sample indicator (cross-) variograms and to implement ''post-processing'' simulation algorithms; and (2) the prevalent ''sequential indicator simulation'' (SIS) methods do not accurately produce patterns of spatial variability for systems with three or more facies (Seifert and Jensen, 1999). This paper demonstrates an alternative transition probability/Markov approach that emphasizes: (1) Conceptual understanding of the parameters of the spatial variability model, so that geologic insight can support and enhance model development when data are sparse. (2) Mathematical rigor, so that the ''coregionalization'' model (including the spatial cross-correlations) obeys probability law. (3) Consideration of spatial cross-correlation, so that juxtapositional tendencies--how frequently one facies tends to occur adjacent to another facies--are honored.

  15. Characterizing the spatial structure of endangered species habitat using geostatistical analysis of IKONOS imagery

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wallace, C.S.A.; Marsh, S.E.

    2005-01-01

    Our study used geostatistics to extract measures that characterize the spatial structure of vegetated landscapes from satellite imagery for mapping endangered Sonoran pronghorn habitat. Fine spatial resolution IKONOS data provided information at the scale of individual trees or shrubs that permitted analysis of vegetation structure and pattern. We derived images of landscape structure by calculating local estimates of the nugget, sill, and range variogram parameters within 25 ?? 25-m image windows. These variogram parameters, which describe the spatial autocorrelation of the 1-m image pixels, are shown in previous studies to discriminate between different species-specific vegetation associations. We constructed two independent models of pronghorn landscape preference by coupling the derived measures with Sonoran pronghorn sighting data: a distribution-based model and a cluster-based model. The distribution-based model used the descriptive statistics for variogram measures at pronghorn sightings, whereas the cluster-based model used the distribution of pronghorn sightings within clusters of an unsupervised classification of derived images. Both models define similar landscapes, and validation results confirm they effectively predict the locations of an independent set of pronghorn sightings. Such information, although not a substitute for field-based knowledge of the landscape and associated ecological processes, can provide valuable reconnaissance information to guide natural resource management efforts. ?? 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

  16. Integrating address geocoding, land use regression, and spatiotemporal geostatistical estimation for groundwater tetrachloroethylene.

    PubMed

    Messier, Kyle P; Akita, Yasuyuki; Serre, Marc L

    2012-03-06

    Geographic information systems (GIS) based techniques are cost-effective and efficient methods used by state agencies and epidemiology researchers for estimating concentration and exposure. However, budget limitations have made statewide assessments of contamination difficult, especially in groundwater media. Many studies have implemented address geocoding, land use regression, and geostatistics independently, but this is the first to examine the benefits of integrating these GIS techniques to address the need of statewide exposure assessments. A novel framework for concentration exposure is introduced that integrates address geocoding, land use regression (LUR), below detect data modeling, and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME). A LUR model was developed for tetrachloroethylene that accounts for point sources and flow direction. We then integrate the LUR model into the BME method as a mean trend while also modeling below detects data as a truncated Gaussian probability distribution function. We increase available PCE data 4.7 times from previously available databases through multistage geocoding. The LUR model shows significant influence of dry cleaners at short ranges. The integration of the LUR model as mean trend in BME results in a 7.5% decrease in cross validation mean square error compared to BME with a constant mean trend.

  17. Integrating Address Geocoding, Land Use Regression, and Spatiotemporal Geostatistical Estimation for Groundwater Tetrachloroethylene

    PubMed Central

    Messier, Kyle P.; Akita, Yasuyuki; Serre, Marc L.

    2012-01-01

    Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based techniques are cost-effective and efficient methods used by state agencies and epidemiology researchers for estimating concentration and exposure. However, budget limitations have made statewide assessments of contamination difficult, especially in groundwater media. Many studies have implemented address geocoding, land use regression, and geostatistics independently, but this is the first to examine the benefits of integrating these GIS techniques to address the need of statewide exposure assessments. A novel framework for concentration exposure is introduced that integrates address geocoding, land use regression (LUR), below detect data modeling, and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME). A LUR model was developed for Tetrachloroethylene that accounts for point sources and flow direction. We then integrate the LUR model into the BME method as a mean trend while also modeling below detects data as a truncated Gaussian probability distribution function. We increase available PCE data 4.7 times from previously available databases through multistage geocoding. The LUR model shows significant influence of dry cleaners at short ranges. The integration of the LUR model as mean trend in BME results in a 7.5% decrease in cross validation mean square error compared to BME with a constant mean trend. PMID:22264162

  18. PORFLOW MODELING FOR A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THE PERFORMANCE OF NEW SALTSTONE DISPOSAL UNIT DESIGNS

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, F.

    2012-08-06

    At the request of Savannah River Remediation (SRR), SRNL has analyzed the expected performance obtained from using seven 32 million gallon Saltstone Disposal Units (SDUs) in the Z-Area Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF) to store future saltstone grout. The analysis was based on preliminary SDU final design specifications. The analysis used PORFLOW modeling to calculate the release of 20 radionuclides from an SDU and transport of the radionuclides and daughters through the vadose zone. Results from this vadose zone analysis were combined with previously calculated releases from existing saltstone vaults and FDCs and a second PORFLOW model run to calculate aquifer transport to assessment points located along a boundary 100 m from the nearest edge of the SDF sources. Peak concentrations within 12 sectors spaced along the 100 m boundary were determined over a period of evaluation extending 20,000 years after SDF closure cap placement. These peak concentrations were provided to SRR to use as input for dose calculations.

  19. Site characterization methodology for aquifers in support of bioreclamation activities. Volume 2: Borehole flowmeter technique, tracer tests, geostatistics and geology. Final report, August 1987-September 1989

    SciTech Connect

    Young, S.C.

    1993-08-01

    This report discusses a field demonstration of a methodology for characterizing an aquifer's geohydrology in the detail required to design an optimum network of wells and/or infiltration galleries for bioreclamation systems. The project work was conducted on a 1-hectare test site at Columbus AFB, Mississippi. The technical report is divided into two volumes. Volume I describes the test site and the well network, the assumptions, and the application of equations that define groundwater flow to a well, the results of three large-scale aquifer tests, and the results of 160 single-pump tests. Volume II describes the bore hole flowmeter tests, the tracer tests, the geological investigations, the geostatistical analysis and the guidelines for using groundwater models to design bioreclamation systems. Site characterization, Hydraulic conductivity, Groundwater flow, Geostatistics, Geohydrology, Monitoring wells.

  20. A preliminary numerical model on the incipient motion conditions of flooded vehicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Castelli, Fabio; Oumeraci, Hocine

    2014-05-01

    The constant increase of the population living in cities and the concerns related to the climate change make flood risk in urban areas a crucial issue in terms of potential damages, casualties and injuries to the people. Vehicles are generally recognized as one of the most aggravating factors in case of floodings in the urban environment. On one hand they interact with the flow modifying locally flood parameters or causing obstructions, on the other hand they are indirectly responsible of many fatalities. According to many studies, most of deaths for drowning occurs in the cars and this drives the need to better understand the conditions in which the vehicles become unstable and consequently dangerous for people and infrastructures. In the view of better assessing the vulnerability during a flood, a deepening in the knowledge of this phenomenon is required. The approach proposed consist of a 3D numerical model able to clarify the occurrence of these conditions and the interaction between flood and vehicles. The model relies on the experimental data provided in literature. In this preliminary study the traditional approach typically used for the incipient motion threshold conditions of river sediments is adapted for the specific geometry of a vehicle. The dimensional analysis of the existing experimental data, is the preliminary step in order to design numerical simulations. The proposed conceptual model is the basis for the numerical analysis aiming at the generalization of empirical results. The dimensionless graph coming from the experiments shows a significant difference between vehicles with a density lower (empty car) than water and larger (filled by floodwater) than water. These behaviors represent both realistic conditions during a sudden flood. The 3D numerical simulation clarifies flow behavior around the obstacle and allows some hints on new approaches for flood modeling in the urban environment.

  1. A Preliminary Study in Applying the Function-Based Intervention Decision Model in Consultation to Increase Treatment Integrity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gann, Candace J.; Kunnavatana, S. Shanun

    2016-01-01

    This preliminary study investigated the use of the Function-Based Intervention Decision Model (Decision Model; Umbreit, Ferro, Liaupsin, & Lane, 2007) to improve teacher treatment integrity for a function-based classroom management plan. The participants were a special education teacher and three elementary-age students receiving special…

  2. Geostatistical noise filtering of geophysical images : application to unexploded ordnance (UXO) sites.

    SciTech Connect

    Saito, Hirotaka; McKenna, Sean Andrew; Coburn, Timothy C.

    2004-07-01

    Geostatistical and non-geostatistical noise filtering methodologies, factorial kriging and a low-pass filter, and a region growing method are applied to analytic signal magnetometer images at two UXO contaminated sites to delineate UXO target areas. Overall delineation performance is improved by removing background noise. Factorial kriging slightly outperforms the low-pass filter but there is no distinct difference between them in terms of finding anomalies of interest.

  3. Genetic Geostatistical Framework for Spatial Analysis of Fine-Scale Genetic Heterogeneity in Modern Populations: Results from the KORA Study.

    PubMed

    Diaz-Lacava, A N; Walier, M; Holler, D; Steffens, M; Gieger, C; Furlanello, C; Lamina, C; Wichmann, H E; Becker, T

    2015-01-01

    Aiming to investigate fine-scale patterns of genetic heterogeneity in modern humans from a geographic perspective, a genetic geostatistical approach framed within a geographic information system is presented. A sample collected for prospective studies in a small area of southern Germany was analyzed. None indication of genetic heterogeneity was detected in previous analysis. Socio-demographic and genotypic data of German citizens were analyzed (212 SNPs; n = 728). Genetic heterogeneity was evaluated with observed heterozygosity (H O ). Best-fitting spatial autoregressive models were identified, using socio-demographic variables as covariates. Spatial analysis included surface interpolation and geostatistics of observed and predicted patterns. Prediction accuracy was quantified. Spatial autocorrelation was detected for both socio-demographic and genetic variables. Augsburg City and eastern suburban areas showed higher H O values. The selected model gave best predictions in suburban areas. Fine-scale patterns of genetic heterogeneity were observed. In accordance to literature, more urbanized areas showed higher levels of admixture. This approach showed efficacy for detecting and analyzing subtle patterns of genetic heterogeneity within small areas. It is scalable in number of loci, even up to whole-genome analysis. It may be suggested that this approach may be applicable to investigate the underlying genetic history that is, at least partially, embedded in geographic data.

  4. Physical frailty, disability, and dynamics in health perceptions: a preliminary mediation model

    PubMed Central

    Mulasso, Anna; Roppolo, Mattia; Rabaglietti, Emanuela

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Frailty is a condition characterized by loss of functional reserve and altered homeostatic capacity. The aging process is related with complex indicators of physiological state. This study aims, with a preliminary mediation model, to reveal the possible role of mediator of health perceptions variability in the relationship between frailty and disability. Patients and methods A longitudinal study (100 days) was performed. Data from 92 institutionalized older adults were used in the analysis. Frailty was assessed in baseline using the Italian version of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe – Frailty Instrument; health perceptions were assessed on a daily basis by three visual analog scale questions; and disability was measured in baseline and post-test using the Katz Activities of Daily Living questionnaire. The product-of-coefficient mediation approach was used to test direct and indirect effects of frailty. Results Results showed that daily variability of health perceptions plays the role of mediator between frailty and disability. In all the steps, statistically significant results were found. Conclusion This preliminary result may indicate that physical frailty increases the variability in health perceptions contributing to disability. PMID:27042027

  5. Geostatistical Analysis of Spatial Variability of Mineral Abundance and Kd in Frenchman Flat, NTS, Alluvium

    SciTech Connect

    Carle, S F; Zavarin, M; Pawloski, G A

    2002-11-01

    LLNL hydrologic source term modeling at the Cambric site (Pawloski et al., 2000) showed that retardation of radionuclide transport is sensitive to the distribution and amount of radionuclide sorbing minerals. While all mineralogic information available near the Cambric site was used in these early simulations (11 mineral abundance analyses from UE-5n and 9 from RNM-l), these older data sets were qualitative in nature, with detection limits too high to accurately measure many of the important radionuclide sorbing minerals (e.g. iron oxide). Also, the sparse nature of the mineral abundance data permitted only a hypothetical description of the spatial distribution of radionuclide sorbing minerals. Yet, the modeling results predicted that the spatial distribution of sorbing minerals would strongly affect radionuclide transport. Clearly, additional data are needed to improve understanding of mineral abundances and their spatial distributions if model predictions in Frenchman Flat are to be defensible. This report evaluates new high-resolution quantitative X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) data on mineral distributions and their abundances from core samples recently collected from drill hole ER-5-4. The total of 94 samples from ER-5-4 were collected at various spacings to enable evaluation of spatial variability at a variety of spatial scales as small as 0.3 meters and up to hundreds of meters. Additional XRD analyses obtained from drillholes UE-Sn, ER-5-3, and U-11g-1 are used to augment evaluation of vertical spatial variability and permit some evaluation of lateral spatial variability. A total of 163 samples are evaluated. The overall goal of this study is to understand and characterize the spatial variation of sorbing minerals in Frenchman Flat alluvium using geostatistical techniques, with consideration for the potential impact on reactive transport of radionuclides. To achieve this goal requires an effort to ensure that plausible geostatistical models are used to

  6. Stochastic simulation of geological data using isometric mapping and multiple-point geostatistics with data incorporation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ting; Du, Yi; Huang, Tao; Li, Xue

    2016-02-01

    Constrained by current hardware equipment and techniques, acquisition of geological data sometimes is difficult or even impossible. Stochastic simulation for geological data is helpful to address this issue, providing multiple possible results of geological data for resource prediction and risk evaluation. Multiple-point geostatistics (MPS) being one of the main branches of stochastic simulation can extract the intrinsic features of patterns from training images (TIs) that provide prior information to limit the under-determined simulated results, and then copy them to the simulated regions. Because the generated models from TIs are not always linear, some MPS methods using linear dimensionality reduction are not suitable to deal with nonlinear models of TIs. A new MPS method named ISOMAPSIM was proposed to resolve this issue, which reduces the dimensionality of patterns from TIs using isometric mapping (ISOMAP) and then classifies these low-dimensional patterns for simulation. Since conditional models including hard data and soft data influence the simulated results greatly, this paper further studies ISOMAPSIM using hard data and soft data to obtain more accurate simulations for geological modeling. Stochastic simulation of geological data is processed respectively under several conditions according to different situations of conditional models. The tests show that the proposed method can reproduce the structural characteristics of TIs under all conditions, but the condition using soft data and hard data together performs best in simulation quality; moreover, the proposed method shows its advantages over other MPS methods that use linear dimensionality reduction.

  7. Preliminary performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, December 1992. Volume 3, Model parameters: Sandia WIPP Project

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-12-29

    This volume documents model parameters chosen as of July 1992 that were used by the Performance Assessment Department of Sandia National Laboratories in its 1992 preliminary performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Ranges and distributions for about 300 modeling parameters in the current secondary data base are presented in tables for the geologic and engineered barriers, global materials (e.g., fluid properties), and agents that act upon the WIPP disposal system such as climate variability and human-intrusion boreholes. The 49 parameters sampled in the 1992 Preliminary Performance Assessment are given special emphasis with tables and graphics that provide insight and sources of data for each parameter.

  8. Geostatistical simulation of rock quality designation (RQD) to support facilities design at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Cromer, M.V.; Zelinski, W.P.

    1996-12-31

    The conceptual design of the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository facility includes shafts and ramps as access to the repository horizon, located 200 to 400 m below ground surface. Geostatistical simulation techniques are being employed to produce numerical models of selected material properties (rock characteristics) in their proper spatial positions. These numerical models will be used to evaluate behavior of various engineered features, the effects of construction and operating practices, and the waste-isolation performance of the overall repository system. The work presented here represents the first attempt to evaluate the spatial character of the rock strength index known as rock quality designation (RQD). Although it is likely that RQD reflects an intrinsic component of the rock matrix, this component becomes difficult to resolve given the frequency and orientation of data made available from vertical core records. The constraints of the two-dimensional study along the axis of an exploratory drift allow bounds to be placed upon the resulting interpretations, while the use of an indicator transformation allows focus to be placed on specific details that may be of interest to design engineers. The analytical process and subsequent development of material property models is anticipated to become one of the principal means of summarizing, integrating, and reconciling the diverse suite of earth-science data acquired through site characterization and of recasting the data in formats specifically designed for use in further modeling of various physical processes.

  9. The geostatistical approach for structural and stratigraphic framework analysis of offshore NW Bonaparte Basin, Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Wahid, Ali Salim, Ahmed Mohamed Ahmed Yusoff, Wan Ismail Wan; Gaafar, Gamal Ragab

    2016-02-01

    Geostatistics or statistical approach is based on the studies of temporal and spatial trend, which depend upon spatial relationships to model known information of variable(s) at unsampled locations. The statistical technique known as kriging was used for petrophycial and facies analysis, which help to assume spatial relationship to model the geological continuity between the known data and the unknown to produce a single best guess of the unknown. Kriging is also known as optimal interpolation technique, which facilitate to generate best linear unbiased estimation of each horizon. The idea is to construct a numerical model of the lithofacies and rock properties that honor available data and further integrate with interpreting seismic sections, techtonostratigraphy chart with sea level curve (short term) and regional tectonics of the study area to find the structural and stratigraphic growth history of the NW Bonaparte Basin. By using kriging technique the models were built which help to estimate different parameters like horizons, facies, and porosities in the study area. The variograms were used to determine for identification of spatial relationship between data which help to find the depositional history of the North West (NW) Bonaparte Basin.

  10. Global modeling of the lower three polyads of PH 3: Preliminary results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikitin, A. V.; Champion, J.-P.; Butler, R. A. H.; Brown, L. R.; Kleiner, I.

    2009-07-01

    In order to model the high-resolution infrared spectrum of the phosphine molecule in the 3 μm region, a global approach involving the lower three polyads of the molecule (Dyad, Pentad and Octad) as been applied using an effective hamiltonian in the form of irreducible tensors. This model allowed to describe all the 15 vibrational states involved and to consider explicitly all relevant ro-vibrational interactions that cannot be accounted for by conventional perturbation approaches. 2245 levels (up to J = 14) observed through transitions arising from 34 cold and hot bands including all available existing data as well as new experimental data have been fitted simultaneously using a unique set of effective hamiltonian parameters. The rms achieved is 0.63 × 10 -3 cm -1 for 450 Dyad levels, 1.5 × 10 -3 cm -1 for 1058 Pentad levels (from 3585 transitions) and 4.3 × 10 -3 cm -1 for 737 Octad levels (from 2243 transitions). This work represents the first theoretical modeling of the 3 μm region. It also improves the modeling of the region around 4.5 μm by dividing the rms reported by previous works by a factor 6. A preliminary intensity analysis based on consistent sets of effective dipole moment operators for cold and hot bands has been simultaneously undertaken for direct comparison between observed and modeled absorption from 700 to 3500 cm -1.

  11. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): simulation design and preliminary results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kravitz, B.; Robock, A.; Tilmes, S.; Boucher, O.; English, J. M.; Irvine, P. J.; Jones, A.; Lawrence, M. G.; MacCracken, M.; Muri, H.; Moore, J. C.; Niemeier, U.; Phipps, S. J.; Sillmann, J.; Storelvmo, T.; Wang, H.; Watanabe, S.

    2015-06-01

    We present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named GeoMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, including key uncertainties in extreme events, the use of geoengineering as part of a portfolio of responses to climate change, and the relatively new idea of cirrus cloud thinning to allow more longwave radiation to escape to space. We discuss experiment designs, as well as the rationale for those designs, showing preliminary results from individual models when available. We also introduce a new feature, called the GeoMIP Testbed, which provides a platform for simulations that will be performed with a few models and subsequently assessed to determine whether the proposed experiment designs will be adopted as core (Tier 1) GeoMIP experiments. This is meant to encourage various stakeholders to propose new targeted experiments that address their key open science questions, with the goal of making GeoMIP more relevant to a broader set of communities.

  12. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): simulation design and preliminary results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kravitz, B.; Robock, A.; Tilmes, S.; Boucher, O.; English, J. M.; Irvine, P. J.; Jones, A.; Lawrence, M. G.; MacCracken, M.; Muri, H.; Moore, J. C.; Niemeier, U.; Phipps, S. J.; Sillmann, J.; Storelvmo, T.; Wang, H.; Watanabe, S.

    2015-10-01

    We present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named GeoMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP project simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, including key uncertainties in extreme events, the use of geoengineering as part of a portfolio of responses to climate change, and the relatively new idea of cirrus cloud thinning to allow more longwave radiation to escape to space. We discuss experiment designs, as well as the rationale for those designs, showing preliminary results from individual models when available. We also introduce a new feature, called the GeoMIP Testbed, which provides a platform for simulations that will be performed with a few models and subsequently assessed to determine whether the proposed experiment designs will be adopted as core (Tier 1) GeoMIP experiments. This is meant to encourage various stakeholders to propose new targeted experiments that address their key open science questions, with the goal of making GeoMIP more relevant to a broader set of communities.

  13. Preliminary subsonic aerodynamic model for simulation studies of the HL-20 lifting body

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jackson, E. Bruce; Cruz, Christopher I.

    1992-01-01

    A nonlinear, six-degree-of-freedom aerodynamic model for an early version of the HL-20 lifting body is described and compared with wind tunnel data upon which it is based. Polynomial functions describing most of the aerodynamic parameters are given and tables of these functions are presented. Techniques used to arrive at these functions are described. Basic aerodynamic coefficients were modeled as functions of angles of attack and sideslip. Vehicle lateral symmetry was assumed. Compressibility (Mach) effects were ignored. Control-surface effectiveness was assumed to vary linearly with angle of deflection and was assumed to be invariant with the angle of sideslip. Dynamic derivatives were obtained from predictive aerodynamic codes. Landing-gear and ground effects were scaled from Space Shuttle data. The model described is provided to support pilot-in-the-loop simulation studies of the HL-20. By providing the data in tabular format, the model is suitable for the data interpolation architecture of many existing engineering simulation facilities. Because of the preliminary nature of the data, however, this model is not recommended for study of the absolute performance of the HL-20.

  14. Preliminary design, analysis, and costing of a dynamic scale model of the NASA space station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gronet, M. J.; Pinson, E. D.; Voqui, H. L.; Crawley, E. F.; Everman, M. R.

    1987-01-01

    The difficulty of testing the next generation of large flexible space structures on the ground places an emphasis on other means for validating predicted on-orbit dynamic behavior. Scale model technology represents one way of verifying analytical predictions with ground test data. This study investigates the preliminary design, scaling and cost trades for a Space Station dynamic scale model. The scaling of nonlinear joint behavior is studied from theoretical and practical points of view. Suspension system interaction trades are conducted for the ISS Dual Keel Configuration and Build-Up Stages suspended in the proposed NASA/LaRC Large Spacecraft Laboratory. Key issues addressed are scaling laws, replication vs. simulation of components, manufacturing, suspension interactions, joint behavior, damping, articulation capability, and cost. These issues are the subject of parametric trades versus the scale model factor. The results of these detailed analyses are used to recommend scale factors for four different scale model options, each with varying degrees of replication. Potential problems in constructing and testing the scale model are identified, and recommendations for further study are outlined.

  15. A central neuropathic pain model by DSP-4 induced lesion of noradrenergic neurons: preliminary report.

    PubMed

    Kudo, Takashi; Kushikata, Tetsuya; Kudo, Mihoko; Kudo, Tsuyoshi; Hirota, Kazuyoshi

    2010-09-06

    Neuropathic pain models are classified as central and peripheral pain models. Although various peripheral neuropathic pain models are established, central pain models are based only on spinal cord injury. DSP-4 is a competitive inhibitor of norepinephrine uptake that selectively degenerates the locus coeruleus (LC)-noradrenergic neurons projection to the cerebral cortex and hippocampus. In the present study, we have tested whether lesion of LC-noradrenergic neurons by ip DSP-4 (0, 10, 30, 50 mg/kg, n=7 each) could provide a new central neuropathic pain model in rats using a hot-plate and tail-flick tests. DSP-4 significantly reduced the hot-plate latency and norepinephrine contents especially in the coerulean regions. However, DSP-4 did not change tail-flick latency. There are significant correlations of the latency in the hot-plate test with norepinephrine contents in the cerebral cortex (r=0.432, p=0.022), the hippocampus (r=0.465, p=0.013) and the pons (r=0.400, p=0.035) but not with those in the hypothalamus and the spinal cord. As response to hot-plate and tail-flick implies supra-spinal process and spinal reflex, respectively, central neuropathic pain may be facilitated by DSP-4 depleting LC-noradrenergic neurons although the present data are preliminary.

  16. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): Simulation design and preliminary results

    DOE PAGES

    Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Robock, Alan; Tilmes, S.; ...

    2015-10-27

    We present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named GeoMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP project simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, including key uncertainties in extreme events, the use of geoengineering as part of a portfolio of responses to climate change, and the relatively new idea of cirrus cloud thinning to allow more long wave radiation to escape to space. We discuss experiment designs, as well as the rationale formore » those designs, showing preliminary results from individual models when available. We also introduce a new feature, called the GeoMIP Testbed, which provides a platform for simulations that will be performed with a few models and subsequently assessed to determine whether the proposed experiment designs will be adopted as core (Tier 1) GeoMIP experiments. In conclusion, this is meant to encourage various stakeholders to propose new targeted experiments that address their key open science questions, with the goal of making GeoMIP more relevant to a broader set of communities.« less

  17. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): Simulation design and preliminary results

    SciTech Connect

    Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Robock, Alan; Tilmes, S.; Boucher, Olivier; English, J. M.; Irvine, Peter J.; Jones, Andrew; Lawrence, M. G.; MacCracken, Michael C.; Muri, Helene O.; Moore, John C.; Niemeier, Ulrike; Phipps, Steven J.; Sillmann, Jana; Storelvmo, Trude; Wang, Hailong; Watanabe, Shingo

    2015-10-27

    We present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named GeoMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP project simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, including key uncertainties in extreme events, the use of geoengineering as part of a portfolio of responses to climate change, and the relatively new idea of cirrus cloud thinning to allow more long wave radiation to escape to space. We discuss experiment designs, as well as the rationale for those designs, showing preliminary results from individual models when available. We also introduce a new feature, called the GeoMIP Testbed, which provides a platform for simulations that will be performed with a few models and subsequently assessed to determine whether the proposed experiment designs will be adopted as core (Tier 1) GeoMIP experiments. In conclusion, this is meant to encourage various stakeholders to propose new targeted experiments that address their key open science questions, with the goal of making GeoMIP more relevant to a broader set of communities.

  18. Addicted to Pain: A Preliminary Model of Sexual Masochism as Addiction.

    PubMed

    Kurt, Holly; Ronel, Natti

    2016-02-04

    An exploratory, qualitative, phenomenological study focused on the experience of pain while participating in sexual masochistic acts. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with nine individuals (four female, five male) who regularly participate in sexually masochistic acts and point to pain as central to their experience. Qualitative analysis of the data revealed several key characteristics of the participant's experience: the first time, intoxication, craving and withdrawal, tolerance, pain as control, and the pain inducing partner. The findings indicate that the way pain is experienced while mitigated through masochistic behavior creates an addictive process that coincides with a chronic behavioral spin contextualization. This article presents a preliminary model of addiction to physical pain in light of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th ed.; DSM-5) definition of substance-related and addictive disorders and the behavioral spin theory.

  19. Preliminary evidence for an emotion dysregulation model of generalized anxiety disorder.

    PubMed

    Mennin, Douglas S; Heimberg, Richard G; Turk, Cynthia L; Fresco, David M

    2005-10-01

    Three studies provide preliminary support for an emotion dysregulation model of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). In study 1, students with GAD reported heightened intensity of emotions, poorer understanding of emotions, greater negative reactivity to emotional experience, and less ability to self-soothe after negative emotions than controls. A composite emotion regulation score significantly predicted the presence of GAD, after controlling for worry, anxiety, and depressive symptoms. In study 2, these findings were largely replicated with a clinical sample. In study 3, students with GAD, but not controls, displayed greater increases in self-reported physiological symptoms after listening to emotion-inducing music than after neutral mood induction. Further, GAD participants had more difficulty managing their emotional reactions. Implications for GAD and psychopathology in general are discussed.

  20. Performance of an upper-ocean model coupled to an atmospheric GCM: preliminary results. Vol. 2

    SciTech Connect

    Pollard, D.

    1982-02-01

    A global dynamical model of the upper ocean and sea ice is coupled to the OSU atmospheric general circulation model. Preliminary results are described from a 16-month simulation with seasonally-varying insolation, and compared with both observations and the results from two earlier experiments with simpler upper-ocean models. The present ocean model consists of two vertically homogeneous layers of variable thickness: the upper layer represents the well-mixed layer and can entrain or detrain fluid locally with the lower layer, as in standard mixed-layer models. The second layer typically has thicknesses of approx.100 to approx.400 meters and crudely represents the seasonal thermocline and the part of the main thermocline involved in the subtropical gyres; it rests immiscibly on deep water of no motion where the density contrast is prescribed. Horizontal advection is predicted in both layers by the primitive momentum equations. Sea ice can form if the upper-layer temperature (SST) drops to freezing, after which the local ice thickness is predicted thermo-dynamically with ice dynamics neglected. The 16-month simulation is started from relatively realistic conditions obtained by spinning up the atmospheric and oceanic models separately. After several months of the coupled run, errors of up to 4/sup 0/C in the SST appear in the western oceans, probably due to the underestimate of the western boundary currents inherent in coarse-grid oceanic models. Equatorial upwelling and undercurrents are simulated but extend basin-wide, producing SSTs up to 6/sup 0/C too cold in the western equatorial Pacific. The large-scale seasonal variation of sea-ice thickness and extent are fairly realistic. Surface heat fluxes are compared with observations and with an earlier control integration of the atmospheric GCM, in an effort to distinguish between errors in the SST caused by the upper-ocean model and those caused by the atmospheric model. 38 refs., 11 figs.

  1. Efficient Geostatistical Inversion under Transient Flow Conditions in Heterogeneous Porous Media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, Ole; Cirpka, Olaf A.; Bastian, Peter; Ippisch, Olaf

    2014-05-01

    The assessment of hydraulic aquifer parameters is important for the evaluation of anthropogenic impacts on groundwater resources. The distribution of these parameters determines flow paths and solute travel times and is therefore critical for the successful design and deployment of remediation schemes at contaminated sites. Direct measurement of these properties is not possible, making indirect observations through dependent quantities and parameter estimation a necessity. The geostatistical approach characterizes these hydraulic parameters without predetermined zonation. The parameter fields are treated as stochastic processes, optionally incorporating a priori information in the probability distribution. Maximizing the likelihood of the parameters with regard to the given observations yields a parameter estimate with high spatial resolution. This approach naturally leads to nonlinear least squares optimization problems, namely objective functions of the form L(Y ) = 1(Y ')TQ -Y1YY ' + 1[F(Y) - z]T Q-z1z [F(Y )- z], 2 2 where Y are the parameters, Y ' their deviations from the a priori estimate, QY Y their covariance matrix, z the measurements, Qzz their covariance matrix and F the forward model mapping parameters to observations. In theory, this objective function may be minimized using standard gradient-based techniques like Gauss-Newton. Due to the typically high number of parameters, however, this is not practical. Let nY be the number of parameters and nz the number of observations. Then QY Y and its inverse are both dense nY ×nY matrices, and the sensitivity matrix Hz := δz/δY is a nz ×nY matrix that has to be assembled using forward or adjoint model runs. Specialized schemes have been developed to reduce the dimensionality of the problem and avoid the high cost of handling products with QY Y -1. This enables efficient inversion in the case of a moderate number of observations as encountered in stationary inversion, where the cost of assembling Hz is in

  2. Using rank-order geostatistics for spatial interpolation of highly skewed data in a heavy-metal contaminated site.

    PubMed

    Juang, K W; Lee, D Y; Ellsworth, T R

    2001-01-01

    The spatial distribution of a pollutant in contaminated soils is usually highly skewed. As a result, the sample variogram often differs considerably from its regional counterpart and the geostatistical interpolation is hindered. In this study, rank-order geostatistics with standardized rank transformation was used for the spatial interpolation of pollutants with a highly skewed distribution in contaminated soils when commonly used nonlinear methods, such as logarithmic and normal-scored transformations, are not suitable. A real data set of soil Cd concentrations with great variation and high skewness in a contaminated site of Taiwan was used for illustration. The spatial dependence of ranks transformed from Cd concentrations was identified and kriging estimation was readily performed in the standardized-rank space. The estimated standardized rank was back-transformed into the concentration space using the middle point model within a standardized-rank interval of the empirical distribution function (EDF). The spatial distribution of Cd concentrations was then obtained. The probability of Cd concentration being higher than a given cutoff value also can be estimated by using the estimated distribution of standardized ranks. The contour maps of Cd concentrations and the probabilities of Cd concentrations being higher than the cutoff value can be simultaneously used for delineation of hazardous areas of contaminated soils.

  3. Investigating feedback mechanisms between stress and grain-size: preliminary findings from finite-element modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cross, A. J.; Prior, D. J.; Ellis, S. M.

    2012-12-01

    It is widely accepted that changes in stress and grain size can induce a switch between grain-size insensitive (GSI) and sensitive (GSS) creep mechanisms. Under steady-state conditions, grains evolve to an equilibrium size in the boundary region between GSS and GSI, described by the paleopiezometer for a given material. Under these conditions, significant rheological weakening is not expected, as grain size reduction processes are balanced by grain growth processes. However, it has been shown that the stress field surrounding faults varies through the seismic cycle, with both rapid loading and unloading of stress possible in the co- and post-seismic stages. We propose that these changes in stress in the region of the brittle-ductile transition zone may be sufficient to force a deviation from the GSI-GSS boundary and thereby cause a change in grain size and creep mechanism prior to system re-equilibration. Here we present preliminary findings from numerical modelling of stress and grain size changes in response to loading of mechanical inhomogeneities. Our results are attained using a grain-size evolution (GSE) subroutine incorporated into the SULEC finite-element code developed by Susan Ellis and Susanne Buiter, which utilises an iterative approach of solving for spatial and temporal changes in differential stress, grain size and active creep mechanism. Preliminary models demonstrate that stress changes in response to the opening of a fracture in a flowing medium can be significant enough to cause a switch from GSI to GSS creep. These results are significant in the context of understanding spatial variations and feedback between stress, grain size and deformation mechanisms through the seismic cycle.

  4. Preliminary Modeling of Two-Phase Flow at the Main Endeavour Vent Field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, S.; Lowell, R. P.

    2011-12-01

    The high temperature hydrothermal vents of Main Endeavour Field (MEF), Juan de Fuca ridge exhibited quasi-steady North-South trending spatial gradients of both temperature and salinity for more than a decade before a magmatic event changed the vent characteristics. In order to explain these observations, we construct two-dimensional numerical models of two-phase hydrothermal flow of the MEF. We consider both along-axis and across-axis simulations, taking into account the vent field geometry and incorporating various parameters, such as different basal temperature distributions and permeability structures that might affect the vent fluid temperature and chemistry. Preliminary results from across-axis models, in which the basal temperature decreases linearly away from the ridge axis and results in a single high-temperature plume, indicate that basal temperature alone does not affect steady-state vent temperature and salinity of the vents. Simulations that include the presence of a high-permeability extrusive layer 2A atop the spreading ridge results in a zone of narrower and lower temperature venting. The effect of a low permeability zone of anhydrite would tend to mitigate the decrease in temperature, however. Along-axis simulations performed to date, with an extended uniform high temperature basal boundary, produce multiple plumes; but the plumes do not exhibit a strong along-axis gradient in vent salinity or temperature as observed at the MEF. These preliminary results suggest that the observed N-S gradient in temperature and salinity at MEF reflects interplay between heat source and either near the surface or deep-seated heterogeneous permeability structures. Three-dimensional simulations might ultimately be required to understand hydrothermal circulation at the MEF.

  5. Coupling geostatistics to detailed reservoir description allows better visualization and more accurate characterization/simulation of turbidite reservoirs: Elk Hills oil field, California

    SciTech Connect

    Allan, M.E.; Wilson, M.L.; Wightman, J. )

    1996-01-01

    The Elk Hills giant oilfield, located in the southern San Joaquin Valley of California, has produced 1.1 billion barrels of oil from Miocene and shallow Pliocene reservoirs. 65% of the current 64,000 BOPD production is from the pressure-supported, deeper Miocene turbidite sands. In the turbidite sands of the 31 S structure, large porosity permeability variations in the Main Body B and Western 31 S sands cause problems with the efficiency of the waterflooding. These variations have now been quantified and visualized using geostatistics. The end result is a more detailed reservoir characterization for simulation. Traditional reservoir descriptions based on marker correlations, cross-sections and mapping do not provide enough detail to capture the short-scale stratigraphic heterogeneity needed for adequate reservoir simulation. These deterministic descriptions are inadequate to tie with production data as the thinly bedded sand/shale sequences blur into a falsely homogenous picture. By studying the variability of the geologic petrophysical data vertically within each wellbore and spatially from well to well, a geostatistical reservoir description has been developed. It captures the natural variability of the sands and shales that was lacking from earlier work. These geostatistical studies allow the geologic and petrophysical characteristics to be considered in a probabilistic model. The end-product is a reservoir description that captures the variability of the reservoir sequences and can be used as a more realistic starting point for history matching and reservoir simulation.

  6. Coupling geostatistics to detailed reservoir description allows better visualization and more accurate characterization/simulation of turbidite reservoirs: Elk Hills oil field, California

    SciTech Connect

    Allan, M.E.; Wilson, M.L.; Wightman, J.

    1996-12-31

    The Elk Hills giant oilfield, located in the southern San Joaquin Valley of California, has produced 1.1 billion barrels of oil from Miocene and shallow Pliocene reservoirs. 65% of the current 64,000 BOPD production is from the pressure-supported, deeper Miocene turbidite sands. In the turbidite sands of the 31 S structure, large porosity & permeability variations in the Main Body B and Western 31 S sands cause problems with the efficiency of the waterflooding. These variations have now been quantified and visualized using geostatistics. The end result is a more detailed reservoir characterization for simulation. Traditional reservoir descriptions based on marker correlations, cross-sections and mapping do not provide enough detail to capture the short-scale stratigraphic heterogeneity needed for adequate reservoir simulation. These deterministic descriptions are inadequate to tie with production data as the thinly bedded sand/shale sequences blur into a falsely homogenous picture. By studying the variability of the geologic & petrophysical data vertically within each wellbore and spatially from well to well, a geostatistical reservoir description has been developed. It captures the natural variability of the sands and shales that was lacking from earlier work. These geostatistical studies allow the geologic and petrophysical characteristics to be considered in a probabilistic model. The end-product is a reservoir description that captures the variability of the reservoir sequences and can be used as a more realistic starting point for history matching and reservoir simulation.

  7. Preliminary Results from Electric Arc Furnace Off-Gas Enthalpy Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Nimbalkar, Sachin U; Thekdi, Arvind; Keiser, James R; Storey, John Morse

    2015-01-01

    This article describes electric arc furnace (EAF) off-gas enthalpy models developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to calculate overall heat availability (sensible and chemical enthalpy) and recoverable heat values (steam or power generation potential) for existing EAF operations and to test ORNL s new EAF waste heat recovery (WHR) concepts. ORNL s new EAF WHR concepts are: Regenerative Drop-out Box System and Fluidized Bed System. The two EAF off-gas enthalpy models described in this paper are: 1.Overall Waste Heat Recovery Model that calculates total heat availability in off-gases of existing EAF operations 2.Regenerative Drop-out Box System Model in which hot EAF off-gases alternately pass through one of two refractory heat sinks that store heat and then transfer it to another gaseous medium These models calculate the sensible and chemical enthalpy of EAF off-gases based on the off-gas chemical composition, temperature, and mass flow rate during tap to tap time, and variations in those parameters in terms of actual values over time. The models provide heat transfer analysis for the aforementioned concepts to confirm the overall system and major component sizing (preliminary) to assess the practicality of the systems. Real-time EAF off-gas composition (e.g., CO, CO2, H2, and H2O), volume flow, and temperature data from one EAF operation was used to test the validity and accuracy of the modeling work. The EAF off-gas data was used to calculate the sensible and chemical enthalpy of the EAF off-gases to generate steam and power. The article provides detailed results from the modeling work that are important to the success of ORNL s EAF WHR project. The EAF WHR project aims to develop and test new concepts and materials that allow cost-effective recovery of sensible and chemical heat from high-temperature gases discharged from EAFs.

  8. Model-Updated Image-Guided Neurosurgery: Preliminary Analysis Using Intraoperative MR.

    PubMed

    Miga, Michael I; Staubert, Andreas; Paulsen, Keith D; Kennedy, Francis E; Tronnier, Volker M; Roberts, David W; Hartov, Alex; Platenik, Leah A; Lunn, Karen E

    2000-10-01

    In this paper, initial clinical data from an intraoperative MR system are compared to calculations made by a three-dimensional finite element model of brain deformation. The preoperative and intraoperative MR data was collected on a patient undergoing a resection of an astrocytoma, grade 3 with non-enhancing and enhancing regions. The image volumes were co-registered and cortical displacements as well as subsurface structure movements were measured retrospectively. These data were then compared to model predictions undergoing intraoperative conditions of gravity and simulated tumor decompression. Computed results demonstrate that gravity and decompression effects account for approximately 40% and 30%, respectively, totaling a 70% recovery of shifting structures with the model. The results also suggest that a non-uniform decompressive stress distribution may be present during tumor resection. Based on this preliminary experience, model predictions constrained by intraoperative surface data appear to be a promising avenue for correcting brain shift during surgery. However, additional clinical cases where volumetric intraoperative MR data is available are needed to improve the understanding of tissue mechanics during resection.

  9. A Preliminary SPARROW Model of Suspended Sediment for the Conterminous United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schwarz, Gregory E.

    2008-01-01

    This report describes the results of a preliminary Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model of suspended sediment for the conterminous United States. The analysis is based on flux estimates compiled from more than 1,800 long-term monitoring stations operated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) during the period 1975-2007. The SPARROW model is structured on the Reach File 1 (RF1) stream network, consisting of approximately 62,000 reach segments. The reach network has been modified to include more than 4,000 reservoirs, an important landscape feature affecting the delivery of suspended sediment. The model identifies six sources of sediment, including the stream channel and five classes of land use: urban, forested, Federal nonforested, agricultural and other, and noninundated land. The delivery of sediment from landform sources to RF1 streams is mediated by soil permeability, erodibility, slope, and rainfall; streamflow is found to affect the amount of sediment mobilized from the stream channel. The results show agricultural land and the stream channel to be major sources of sediment flux. Per unit area, Federal nonforested and urban lands are the largest landform sediment sources. Reservoirs are identified as major sites for sediment attenuation. This report includes a description for how the model results can be used to assess changes in instream sediment flux and concentration resulting from proposed changes in the regulation of sediment discharge from construction sites.

  10. A modelling of the interaction between electromagnetic radiation and West Ford needles clusters: a preliminary study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandeville, J.-C.; Perrin, J.-M.

    Radar observations of small space debris made with the Goldstone radar facility have shown that a population of small particles do exist at an altitude larger than 2000 km. This population has been identified with clusters of copper needles created upon the deployment of the West Ford needles project, by MIDAS satellites in 1961 and 1963. This set of particles is either not taken into account in the debris models or only added to other populations. But owing to their specific physical and geometrical properties, the sunlight they scatter could affect, for instance, the spaceborne astronomical experiments. In order to assess this threat it is necessary to model their physical and geometric characteristics. A preliminary modelling using spheres suggests that some improvement is needed. We propose a better approach with long conductive cylinders as a model for the clusters. The interaction of solar light with these particles allows us to estimate the spurious flux scattered inside spaceborne instruments. We conclude that for a given spatial configuration light flashes can affect seriously the operating mode of high sensitivity instruments.

  11. A general parallelization strategy for random path based geostatistical simulation methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mariethoz, Grégoire

    2010-07-01

    The size of simulation grids used for numerical models has increased by many orders of magnitude in the past years, and this trend is likely to continue. Efficient pixel-based geostatistical simulation algorithms have been developed, but for very large grids and complex spatial models, the computational burden remains heavy. As cluster computers become widely available, using parallel strategies is a natural step for increasing the usable grid size and the complexity of the models. These strategies must profit from of the possibilities offered by machines with a large number of processors. On such machines, the bottleneck is often the communication time between processors. We present a strategy distributing grid nodes among all available processors while minimizing communication and latency times. It consists in centralizing the simulation on a master processor that calls other slave processors as if they were functions simulating one node every time. The key is to decouple the sending and the receiving operations to avoid synchronization. Centralization allows having a conflict management system ensuring that nodes being simulated simultaneously do not interfere in terms of neighborhood. The strategy is computationally efficient and is versatile enough to be applicable to all random path based simulation methods.

  12. Geostatistical Analyses of the Persistence and Inventory of Carbon Tetrachloride in the 200 West Area of the Hanford Site

    SciTech Connect

    Murray, Christopher J.; Bott, Yi-Ju; Truex, Michael J.

    2007-04-30

    This report documents two separate geostatistical studies performed by researchers from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate the carbon tetrachloride plume in the groundwater on the Hanford Site.

  13. Geostatistical prediction of flow-duration curves in an index-flow framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugliese, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio; Brath, Armando

    2014-05-01

    An empirical period-of-record Flow-Duration Curve (FDC) describes the percentage of time (duration) in which a given streamflow was equaled or exceeded over an historical period of time. FDCs have always attracted a great deal of interest in engineering applications because of their ability to provide a simple yet comprehensive graphical view of the overall historical variability of streamflows in a river basin, from floods to low-flows. Nevertheless, in many practical applications one has to construct FDC in basins that are ungauged or where very few observations are available. We present in this study an application strategy of Topological kriging (or Top-kriging), which makes the geostatistical procedure capable of predicting flow-duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged catchments. Previous applications of Top-kriging mainly focused on the prediction of point streamflow indices (e.g. flood quantiles, low-flow indices, etc.). In this study Top-kriging is used to predict FDCs in ungauged sites as a weighted average of standardised empirical FDCs through the traditional linear-weighting scheme of kriging methods. Our study focuses on the prediction of FDCs for 18 unregulated catchments located in Central Italy, for which daily streamflow series with length from 5 to 40 years are available, together with information on climate referring to the same time-span of each daily streamflow sequence. Empirical FDCs are standardised by a reference index-flow value (i.e. mean annual flow, or mean annual precipitation times the catchment drainage area) and the overall deviation of the curves from this reference value is then used for expressing the hydrological similarity between catchments and for deriving the geostatistical weights. We performed an extensive leave-one-out cross-validation to quantify the accuracy of the proposed technique, and to compare it to traditional regionalisation models that were recently developed for the same study region. The cross-validation points

  14. Ground-water flow in Melton Valley, Oak Ridge reservation, Roane County, Tennessee; preliminary model analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tucci, Patrick

    1986-01-01

    Shallow land burial of low-level radioactive waste has been practiced since 1951 in Melton Valley. Groundwater flow modeling was used to better understand the geohydrology of the valley, and to provide a foundation for future contaminant transport modeling. The three-dimensional, finite difference model simulates the aquifer as a two layer system that represents the regolith and bedrock. Transmissivities, which were adjusted during model calibration, range from 8 to 16 sq ft/day for the regolith, and from 0.2 to 1.5 sq ft/day for bedrock. An anisotropy ratio of 1:3 for strike-normal to strike-parallel transmissivity values, in conjunction with recharge rate = 6% of precipitation that is uniformly distributed over the model area, produces the best match between simulated and observed water levels. Simulated water levels generally compare well to observed or estimated 1978 groundwater conditions. Simulated water levels for the regolith for 39 of 69 comparison points are within +/- 10 ft of average 1978 levels. Simulated vertical flow components are in the observed direction for 9 of 11 comparison points. Preliminary simulations indicate that nearly all groundwater flow is within the regolith and discharges to either the Clinch River or the White Oak Creek-Melton Branch drainage systems. Less than 3% of the flow is between the regolith and bedrock, and < 1% of total groundwater flow discharges to the Clinch River through bedrock. Additional data needed to refine and further calibrate the model, include: (1) quantity and areal distribution of recharge; (2) water levels in the regolith near the model boundaries and beyond the Clinch River; (3) water levels and aquifer characteristics for bedrock; and (4) additional surface water data. (Author 's abstract)

  15. Preliminary development of a stochastic model to analyze risk associated with the transport of hazardous substances. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Tumeo, M.A.

    1993-02-01

    Because of the recognized risks associated with the transport of hazardous substances (both useable materials and wastes), federal, state, and local agencies are under growing pressure to minimize the risk of spills and accidental releases of dangerous substances and in the event of a spill event, to protect the public from adverse effects. To meet this need, a preliminary computer model is presented for use in incident management in urban and rural traffic operations. The model is in the Macintosh Hypercard format and allows the user to assess the risks associated with transport of hazardous substances, including the potential of an accidental release and risks to the public and the environment should a release occur. As part of the long-term model development strategy, the preliminary model was tested at a workshop of Alaska Department of Transportation personnel and researchers from the University of Alaska Fairbanks Transportation Research Center. During the workshop, participants were asked to critique the model structure, user interface, and utility. Specific suggestions were solicited on how the model could be strengthened and improved. An overall rating sheet was filled out by each participant to provide a quasi-quantitative assessment of the model as a management tool. The preliminary model will serve as the core for the development and refinement of a more sophisticated risk analysis model.

  16. Preliminary Review of Models, Assumptions, and Key Data used in Performance Assessments and Composite Analysis at the Idaho National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Arthur S. Rood; Swen O. Magnuson

    2009-07-01

    This document is in response to a request by Ming Zhu, DOE-EM to provide a preliminary review of existing models and data used in completed or soon to be completed Performance Assessments and Composite Analyses (PA/CA) documents, to identify codes, methodologies, main assumptions, and key data sets used.

  17. Estimating the effect of hospital closure on areawide inpatient hospital costs: a preliminary model and application.

    PubMed Central

    Shepard, D S

    1983-01-01

    A preliminary model is developed for estimating the extent of savings, if any, likely to result from discontinuing a specific inpatient service. By examining the sources of referral to the discontinued service, the model estimates potential demand and how cases will be redistributed among remaining hospitals. This redistribution determines average cost per day in hospitals that receive these cases, relative to average cost per day of the discontinued service. The outflow rate, which measures the proportion of cases not absorbed in other acute care hospitals, is estimated as 30 percent for the average discontinuation. The marginal cost ratio, which relates marginal costs of cases absorbed in surrounding hospitals to the average costs in those hospitals, is estimated as 87 percent in the base case. The model was applied to the discontinuation of all inpatient services in the 75-bed Chelsea Memorial Hospital, near Boston, Massachusetts, using 1976 data. As the precise value of key parameters is uncertain, sensitivity analysis was used to explore a range of values. The most likely result is a small increase ($120,000) in the area's annual inpatient hospital costs, because many patients are referred to more costly teaching hospitals. A similar situation may arise with other urban closures. For service discontinuations to generate savings, recipient hospitals must be low in costs, the outflow rate must be large, and the marginal cost ratio must be low. PMID:6668181

  18. Geostatistics and the representative elementary volume of gamma ray tomography attenuation in rocks cores

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vogel, J.R.; Brown, G.O.

    2003-01-01

    Semivariograms of samples of Culebra Dolomite have been determined at two different resolutions for gamma ray computed tomography images. By fitting models to semivariograms, small-scale and large-scale correlation lengths are determined for four samples. Different semivariogram parameters were found for adjacent cores at both resolutions. Relative elementary volume (REV) concepts are related to the stationarity of the sample. A scale disparity factor is defined and is used to determine sample size required for ergodic stationarity with a specified correlation length. This allows for comparison of geostatistical measures and representative elementary volumes. The modifiable areal unit problem is also addressed and used to determine resolution effects on correlation lengths. By changing resolution, a range of correlation lengths can be determined for the same sample. Comparison of voxel volume to the best-fit model correlation length of a single sample at different resolutions reveals a linear scaling effect. Using this relationship, the range of the point value semivariogram is determined. This is the range approached as the voxel size goes to zero. Finally, these results are compared to the regularization theory of point variables for borehole cores and are found to be a better fit for predicting the volume-averaged range.

  19. Using geostatistical methods to estimate snow water equivalence distribution in a mountain watershed

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Balk, B.; Elder, K.; Baron, J.

    1998-01-01

    Knowledge of the spatial distribution of snow water equivalence (SWE) is necessary to adequately forecast the volume and timing of snowmelt runoff.  In April 1997, peak accumulation snow depth and density measurements were independently taken in the Loch Vale watershed (6.6 km2), Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado.  Geostatistics and classical statistics were used to estimate SWE distribution across the watershed.  Snow depths were spatially distributed across the watershed through kriging interpolation methods which provide unbiased estimates that have minimum variances.  Snow densities were spatially modeled through regression analysis.  Combining the modeled depth and density with snow-covered area (SCA produced an estimate of the spatial distribution of SWE.  The kriged estimates of snow depth explained 37-68% of the observed variance in the measured depths.  Steep slopes, variably strong winds, and complex energy balance in the watershed contribute to a large degree of heterogeneity in snow depth.

  20. Spatial variability of selected physicochemical parameters within peat deposits in small valley mire: a geostatistical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pawłowski, Dominik; Okupny, Daniel; Włodarski, Wojciech; Zieliński, Tomasz

    2014-12-01

    Geostatistical methods for 2D and 3D modelling spatial variability of selected physicochemical properties of biogenic sediments were applied to a small valley mire in order to identify the processes that lead to the formation of various types of peat. A sequential Gaussian simulation was performed to reproduce the statistical distribution of the input data (pH and organic matter) and their semivariances, as well as to honouring of data values, yielding more `realistic' models that show microscale spatial variability, despite the fact that the input sample cores were sparsely distributed in the X-Y space of the study area. The stratigraphy of peat deposits in the Ldzań mire shows a record of long-term evolution of water conditions, which is associated with the variability in water supply over time. Ldzań is a fen (a rheotrophic mire) with a through-flow of groundwater. Additionally, the vicinity of the Grabia River is marked by seasonal inundations of the southwest part of the mire and increased participation of mineral matter in the peat. In turn, the upper peat layers of some of the central part of Ldzań mire are rather spongy, and these peat-forming phytocoenoses probably formed during permanent waterlogging.

  1. Fast Geostatistical Inversion using Randomized Matrix Decompositions and Sketchings for Heterogeneous Aquifer Characterization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Malley, D.; Le, E. B.; Vesselinov, V. V.

    2015-12-01

    We present a fast, scalable, and highly-implementable stochastic inverse method for characterization of aquifer heterogeneity. The method utilizes recent advances in randomized matrix algebra and exploits the structure of the Quasi-Linear Geostatistical Approach (QLGA), without requiring a structured grid like Fast-Fourier Transform (FFT) methods. The QLGA framework is a more stable version of Gauss-Newton iterates for a large number of unknown model parameters, but provides unbiased estimates. The methods are matrix-free and do not require derivatives or adjoints, and are thus ideal for complex models and black-box implementation. We also incorporate randomized least-square solvers and data-reduction methods, which speed up computation and simulate missing data points. The new inverse methodology is coded in Julia and implemented in the MADS computational framework (http://mads.lanl.gov). Julia is an advanced high-level scientific programing language that allows for efficient memory management and utilization of high-performance computational resources. Inversion results based on series of synthetic problems with steady-state and transient calibration data are presented.

  2. Geostatistical estimates of future recharge for the Death Valley region

    SciTech Connect

    Hevesi, J.A.; Flint, A.L.

    1998-12-01

    Spatially distributed estimates of regional ground water recharge rates under both current and potential future climates are needed to evaluate a potential geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, which is located within the Death Valley ground-water region (DVGWR). Determining the spatial distribution of recharge is important for regional saturated-zone ground-water flow models. In the southern Nevada region, the Maxey-Eakin method has been used for estimating recharge based on average annual precipitation. Although this method does not directly account for a variety of location-specific factors which control recharge (such as bedrock permeability, soil cover, and net radiation), precipitation is the primary factor that controls in the region. Estimates of recharge obtained by using the Maxey-Eakin method are comparable to estimates of recharge obtained by using chloride balance studies. The authors consider the Maxey-Eakin approach as a relatively simple method of obtaining preliminary estimates of recharge on a regional scale.

  3. Modeling and preliminary testing socket-residual limb interface stiffness of above-elbow prostheses.

    PubMed

    Sensinger, Jonathon W; Weir, Richard F ff

    2008-04-01

    The interface between the socket and residual limb can have a significant effect on the performance of a prosthesis. Specifically, knowledge of the rotational stiffness of the socket-residual limb (S-RL) interface is extremely useful in designing new prostheses and evaluating new control paradigms, as well as in comparing existing and new socket technologies. No previous studies, however, have examined the rotational stiffness of S-RL interfaces. To address this problem, a math model is compared to a more complex finite element analysis, to see if the math model sufficiently captures the main effects of S-RL interface rotational stiffness. Both of these models are then compared to preliminary empirical testing, in which a series of X-rays, called fluoroscopy, is taken to obtain the movement of the bone relative to the socket. Force data are simultaneously recorded, and the combination of force and movement data are used to calculate the empirical rotational stiffness of elbow S-RL interface. The empirical rotational stiffness values are then compared to the models, to see if values of Young's modulus obtained in other studies at localized points may be used to determine the global rotational stiffness of the S-RL interface. Findings include agreement between the models and empirical results and the ability of persons to significantly modulate the rotational stiffness of their S-RL interface a little less than one order of magnitude. The floor and ceiling of this range depend significantly on socket length and co-contraction levels, but not on residual limb diameter or bone diameter. Measured trans-humeral S-RL interface rotational stiffness values ranged from 24-140 Nm/rad for the four subjects tested in this study.

  4. Inherited pelvic organ prolapse in the mouse: preliminary evaluation of a new murine model

    PubMed Central

    MCNANLEY, Anna R.; JOHNSON, Aimee M.; FLYNN, Michael K.; WOOD, Ronald W.; KENNEDY, Scott D.; REEDER, Jay E.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives/Introduction To report the initial anatomic, radiographic, and genetic evaluations of a novel form of spontaneous pelvic organ prolapse (S-POP) in mice. Methods We observed S-POP in a colony of UPII-SV40T transgenic mice developed for studies on bladder cancer. We utilized magnetic resonance imaging and necropsy to characterize this finding. We have established a breeding colony to identify inheritance patterns and for future studies. Results Selective breeding isolated the S-POP phenotype from the transgene. In contrast to other animal models, the S-POP mouse does not require an obligatory antecedent event to manifest pelvic organ prolapse. Necropsy and imaging demonstrate significant displacement of the pelvic organs distal to the pelvic floor in both sexes. The appearance of the POP is similar to that seen in the human female phenotype. Preliminary breeding studies indicate an autosomal dominant inheritance pattern. Conclusions This mouse may be an effective animal model for the study of POP in humans. PMID:18802654

  5. Planning Genomic Study in an Animal Model of Depression: a Preliminary Report

    PubMed Central

    Farnam, Alireza; Fakhari, Ali; Roshangar, Leila; Kahni, Sajjad; Farhang, Sara

    2011-01-01

    Introduction Interaction of several genes is responsible for psychiatric diseases such as depression. Despite the numerous microarray studies in this field, findings are controversial and hard to conclude. Methods Male Wistar rats were randomly selected to receive Chronic Mild Stress model for 4 weeks. Different aspects of depression were measured by forced swimming test, open field trial and sucrose preference tests in the experience group and controls. Results Sucrose was preferred by 40% of CMS group and 80% of controls (p=0.025). Twenty percent of CMS group and 80% of controls were “active” (p=0.001). Last escape was at minute 238 for CMS group and minute 245 for controls and controls had more escape efforts. Conclusion This paper is a preliminary report of a genomic study on animal model of depression which tries to achieve reliable results by a joint of clinical view with recent techniques. Predicted challenges in this procedure and the solutions as well as the limitations may be helpful for future researches. PMID:23678424

  6. A Preliminary Model of Motivation for Pornography Consumption Among Men Participating in Zoophilic Virtual Environments.

    PubMed

    de Souza Aranha E Silva, Renata Almeida; Baltieri, Danilo Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Although zoophilic blogs and websites attract the attention of zoophiles and others who are curious about this sexual activity, the motivations for consuming this type of pornography are not clear. This study aimed to confirm the factorial validity of the Pornography Consumption Inventory in an online sample of men with sexual interest in animals, and to construct an association model between motivations for pornography consumption and the following psychological variables: depression, sexual impulsiveness, and strength of sexual interest in animals. In this cross-sectional study, we located a website that catered to a network of people with a sexual interest in animals. Subsequently, a questionnaire was made available online to members of this network. Results support the 4-factor model of the Pornography Consumption Inventory. Depression and strength of sexual interest in animals were negatively and positively correlated with the sexual curiosity factor, respectively. Sexual impulsiveness was positively associated with the emotional avoidance, excitement seeking, and sexual pleasure factors. Depression and sexual impulsiveness were positively correlated. Psychological factors can differently motivate the consumption of pornography among men who visit zoophilic blogs and websites. With these preliminary data, we can identify some characteristics of this population.

  7. Preliminary clinical nursing leadership competency model: a qualitative study from Thailand.

    PubMed

    Supamanee, Treeyaphan; Krairiksh, Marisa; Singhakhumfu, Laddawan; Turale, Sue

    2011-12-01

    This qualitative study explored the clinical nursing leadership competency perspectives of Thai nurses working in a university hospital. To collect data, in-depth interviews were undertaken with 23 nurse administrators, and focus groups were used with 31 registered nurses. Data were analyzed using content analysis, and theory development was guided by the Iceberg model. Nurses' clinical leadership competencies emerged, comprising hidden characteristics and surface characteristics. The hidden characteristics composed three elements: motive (respect from the nursing and healthcare team and being secure in life), self-concept (representing positive attitudes and values), and traits (personal qualities necessary for leadership). The surface characteristics comprised specific knowledge of nurse leaders about clinical leadership, management and nursing informatics, and clinical skills, such as coordination, effective communication, problem solving, and clinical decision-making. The study findings help nursing to gain greater knowledge of the essence of clinical nursing leadership competencies, a matter critical for theory development in leadership. This study's results later led to the instigation of a training program for registered nurse leaders at the study site, and the formation of a preliminary clinical nursing leadership competency model.

  8. Geostatistical analysis of groundwater level using Euclidean and non-Euclidean distance metrics and variable variogram fitting criteria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Theodoridou, Panagiota G.; Karatzas, George P.; Varouchakis, Emmanouil A.; Corzo Perez, Gerald A.

    2015-04-01

    Groundwater level is an important information in hydrological modelling. Geostatistical methods are often employed to map the free surface of an aquifer. In geostatistical analysis using Kriging techniques the selection of the optimal variogram model is very important for the optimal method performance. This work compares three different criteria, the least squares sum method, the Akaike Information Criterion and the Cressie's Indicator, to assess the theoretical variogram that fits to the experimental one and investigates the impact on the prediction results. Moreover, five different distance functions (Euclidean, Minkowski, Manhattan, Canberra, and Bray-Curtis) are applied to calculate the distance between observations that affects both the variogram calculation and the Kriging estimator. Cross validation analysis in terms of Ordinary Kriging is applied by using sequentially a different distance metric and the above three variogram fitting criteria. The spatial dependence of the observations in the tested dataset is studied by fitting classical variogram models and the Matérn model. The proposed comparison analysis performed for a data set of two hundred fifty hydraulic head measurements distributed over an alluvial aquifer that covers an area of 210 km2. The study area is located in the Prefecture of Drama, which belongs to the Water District of East Macedonia (Greece). This area was selected in terms of hydro-geological data availability and geological homogeneity. The analysis showed that a combination of the Akaike information Criterion for the variogram fitting assessment and the Brays-Curtis distance metric provided the most accurate cross-validation results. The Power-law variogram model provided the best fit to the experimental data. The aforementioned approach for the specific dataset in terms of the Ordinary Kriging method improves the prediction efficiency in comparison to the classical Euclidean distance metric. Therefore, maps of the spatial

  9. Integrating geophysical data for mapping the contamination of industrial sites by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: A geostatistical approach

    SciTech Connect

    Colin, P.; Nicoletis, S.; Froidevaux, R.; Garcia, M.

    1996-12-31

    A case study is presented of building a map showing the probability that the concentration in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) exceeds a critical threshold. This assessment is based on existing PAH sample data (direct information) and on an electrical resistivity survey (indirect information). Simulated annealing is used to build a model of the range of possible values for PAH concentrations and of the bivariate relationship between PAH concentrations and electrical resistivity. The geostatistical technique of simple indicator kriging is then used, together with the probabilistic model, to infer, at each node of a grid, the range of possible values which the PAH concentration can take. The risk map is then extracted for this characterization of the local uncertainty. The difference between this risk map and a traditional iso-concentration map is then discussed in terms of decision-making.

  10. Preliminary Results from an Assimilation of TOMS Aerosol Observations Into the GOCART Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    daSilva, Arlindo; Weaver, Clark J.; Ginoux, Paul; Torres, Omar; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    At NASA Goddard we are developing a global aerosol data assimilation system that combines advances in remote sensing and modeling of atmospheric aerosols. The goal is to provide high resolution, 3-D aerosol distributions to the research community. Our first step is to develop a simple assimilation system for Saharan mineral aerosol. The Goddard Chemistry and Aerosol Radiation model (GOCART) provides accurate 3-D mineral aerosol size distributions that compare well with TOMS satellite observations. Surface, mobilization, wet and dry deposition, convective and long-range transport are all driven by assimilated fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System, GEOS-DAS. Our version of GOCART transports sizes from.08-10 microns and only simulates Saharan dust. TOMS radiance observations in the ultra violet provide information on the mineral and carbonaceous aerosol fields. We use two main observables in this study: the TOMS aerosol index (AI) which is directly related to the ratio of the 340 and 380 radiances and the 380 radiance. These are sensitive to the aerosol optical thickness, the single scattering albedo and the height of the aerosol layer. The Goddard Aerosol Assimilation System (GAAS) uses the Data Assimilation Office's Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) to combine TOMS observations and GOCART model first guess fields. At this initial phase we only assimilate observations into the the GOCART model over regions of Africa and the Atlantic where mineral aerosols dominant and carbonaceous aerosols are minimal, Our preliminary results during summer show that the assimilation with TOMS data modifies both the aerosol mass loading and the single scattering albedo. Assimilated aerosol fields will be compared with assimilated aerosol fields from GOCART and AERONET observations over Cape Verde.

  11. Geostatistics as a tool to study mite dispersion in physic nut plantations.

    PubMed

    Rosado, J F; Picanço, M C; Sarmento, R A; Pereira, R M; Pedro-Neto, M; Galdino, T V S; de Sousa Saraiva, A; Erasmo, E A L

    2015-08-01

    Spatial distribution studies in pest management identify the locations where pest attacks on crops are most severe, enabling us to understand and predict the movement of such pests. Studies on the spatial distribution of two mite species, however, are rather scarce. The mites Polyphagotarsonemus latus and Tetranychus bastosi are the major pests affecting physic nut plantations (Jatropha curcas). Therefore, the objective of this study was to measure the spatial distributions of P. latus and T. bastosi in the physic nut plantations. Mite densities were monitored over 2 years in two different plantations. Sample locations were georeferenced. The experimental data were analyzed using geostatistical analyses. The total mite density was found to be higher when only one species was present (T. bastosi). When both the mite species were found in the same plantation, their peak densities occurred at different times. These mites, however, exhibited uniform spatial distribution when found at extreme densities (low or high). However, the mites showed an aggregated distribution in intermediate densities. Mite spatial distribution models were isotropic. Mite colonization commenced at the periphery of the areas under study, whereas the high-density patches extended until they reached 30 m in diameter. This has not been reported for J. curcas plants before.

  12. Analysis of alluvial hydrostratigraphy using indicator geostatistics, with examples from Santa Clara Valley, California

    SciTech Connect

    1995-03-01

    Current trends in hydrogeology seek to enlist sedimentary concepts in the interpretation of permeability structures. However, existing conceptual models of alluvial deposition tend to inadequately account for the heterogeneity caused by complex sedimentological and external factors. This dissertation presents three analyses of alluvial hydrostratigraphy using indicator geostatistics. This approach empirically acknowledges both the random and structured qualities of alluvial structures at scales relevant to site investigations. The first analysis introduces the indicator approach, whereby binary values are assigned to borehole-log intervals on the basis of inferred relative permeability; it presents a case study of indicator variography at a well-documented ground-water contamination site, and uses indicator kriging to interpolate an aquifer-aquitard sequence in three dimensions. The second analysis develops an alluvial-architecture context for interpreting semivariograms, and performs comparative variography for a suite of alluvial sites in Santa Clara Valley, California. The third analysis investigates the use of a water well perforation indicator for assessing large-scale hydrostratigraphic structures within relatively deep production zones.

  13. Spatial analysis of lettuce downy mildew using geostatistics and geographic information systems.

    PubMed

    Wu, B M; van Bruggen, A H; Subbarao, K V; Pennings, G G

    2001-02-01

    ABSTRACT The epidemiology of lettuce downy mildew has been investigated extensively in coastal California. However, the spatial patterns of the disease and the distance that Bremia lactucae spores can be transported have not been determined. During 1995 to 1998, we conducted several field- and valley-scale surveys to determine spatial patterns of this disease in the Salinas valley. Geostatistical analyses of the survey data at both scales showed that the influence range of downy mildew incidence at one location on incidence at other locations was between 80 and 3,000 m. A linear relationship was detected between semivariance and lag distance at the field scale, although no single statistical model could fit the semi-variograms at the valley scale. Spatial interpolation by the inverse distance weighting method with a power of 2 resulted in plausible estimates of incidence throughout the valley. Cluster analysis in geographic information systems on the interpolated disease incidence from different dates demonstrated that the Salinas valley could be divided into two areas, north and south of Salinas City, with high and low disease pressure, respectively. Seasonal and spatial trends along the valley suggested that the distinction between the downy mildew conducive and nonconducive areas might be determined by environmental factors.

  14. Radon risk mapping in southern Belgium: an application of geostatistical and GIS techniques.

    PubMed

    Zh, H C; Charlet, J M; Poffijn, A

    2001-05-14

    A data set of long-term radon measurements in approximately 2200 houses in southern Belgium has been collected in an on-going national radon survey. The spatial variation of indoor Rn concentrations is modelled by variograms. A radon distribution map is produced using the log-normal kriging technique. A GIS is used to digitise, process and integrate a variety of data, including geological maps, Rn concentrations associated with house locations and an administrative map, etc. It also allows evaluation of the relationships between various spatial data sets with the goal of producing radon risk maps. Based on geostatistical mapping and spatial analysis, we define three categories of risk areas: high risk, medium risk and low risk area. The correlation between radon concentrations and geological features is proved in this study. High and medium Rn risk zones are dominantly situated in bedrock from the Cambrian to Lower Devonian, although a few medium risk zones are within the Jurassic. It is evident that high-risk zones are related to a strongly folded and fractured context.

  15. A geostatistical approach to identify and mitigate agricultural nitrous oxide emission hotspots.

    PubMed

    Turner, P A; Griffis, T J; Mulla, D J; Baker, J M; Venterea, R T

    2016-12-01

    Anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a trace gas with severe environmental costs, are greatest from agricultural soils amended with nitrogen (N) fertilizer. However, accurate N2O emission estimates at fine spatial scales are made difficult by their high variability, which represents a critical challenge for the management of N2O emissions. Here, static chamber measurements (n=60) and soil samples (n=129) were collected at approximately weekly intervals (n=6) for 42-d immediately following the application of N in a southern Minnesota cornfield (15.6-ha), typical of the systems prevalent throughout the U.S. Corn Belt. These data were integrated into a geostatistical model that resolved N2O emissions at a high spatial resolution (1-m). Field-scale N2O emissions exhibited a high degree of spatial variability, and were partitioned into three classes of emission strength: hotspots, intermediate, and coldspots. Rates of emission from hotspots were 2-fold greater than non-hotspot locations. Consequently, 36% of the field-scale emissions could be attributed to hotspots, despite representing only 21% of the total field area. Variations in elevation caused hotspots to develop in predictable locations, which were prone to nutrient and moisture accumulation caused by terrain focusing. Because these features are relatively static, our data and analyses indicate that targeted management of hotspots could efficiently reduce field-scale emissions by as much 17%, a significant benefit considering the deleterious effects of atmospheric N2O.

  16. Usage of multivariate geostatistics in interpolation processes for meteorological precipitation maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gundogdu, Ismail Bulent

    2017-01-01

    Long-term meteorological data are very important both for the evaluation of meteorological events and for the analysis of their effects on the environment. Prediction maps which are constructed by different interpolation techniques often provide explanatory information. Conventional techniques, such as surface spline fitting, global and local polynomial models, and inverse distance weighting may not be adequate. Multivariate geostatistical methods can be more significant, especially when studying secondary variables, because secondary variables might directly affect the precision of prediction. In this study, the mean annual and mean monthly precipitations from 1984 to 2014 for 268 meteorological stations in Turkey have been used to construct country-wide maps. Besides linear regression, the inverse square distance and ordinary co-Kriging (OCK) have been used and compared to each other. Also elevation, slope, and aspect data for each station have been taken into account as secondary variables, whose use has reduced errors by up to a factor of three. OCK gave the smallest errors (1.002 cm) when aspect was included.

  17. Quantifying the Relationship between Dynamical Cores and Physical Parameterizations by Geostatistical Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yorgun, M. S.; Rood, R. B.

    2010-12-01

    The behavior of atmospheric models is sensitive to the algorithms that are used to represent the equations of motion. Typically, comprehensive models are conceived in terms of the resolved fluid dynamics (i.e. the dynamical core) and subgrid, unresolved physics represented by parameterizations. Deterministic weather predictions are often validated with feature-by-feature comparison. Probabilistic weather forecasts and climate projects are evaluated with statistical methods. We seek to develop model evaluation strategies that identify like “objects” - coherent systems with an associated set of measurable parameters. This makes it possible to evaluate processes in models without needing to reproduce the time and location of, for example, a particular observed cloud system. Process- and object-based evaluation preserves information in the observations by avoiding the need for extensive spatial and temporal averaging. As a concrete example, we focus on analyzing how the choice of dynamical core impacts the representation of precipitation in the Pacific Northwest of the United States, Western Canada, and Alaska; this brings attention to the interaction of the resolved and the parameterized components of the model. Two dynamical cores are considered within the Community Atmosphere Model. These are the Spectral (Eulerian), which relies on global basis functions and the Finite Volume (FV), which uses only local information. We introduce the concept of "meteorological realism" that is, do local representations of large-scale phenomena, for example, fronts and orographic precipitation, look like the observations? A follow on question is, does the representation of these phenomena improve with resolution? Our approach to quantify meteorological realism starts with methods of geospatial statistics. Specifically, we employ variography, which is a geostatistical method which is used to measure the spatial continuity of a regionalized variable, and principle component

  18. Using Geostatistical Data Fusion Techniques and MODIS Data to Upscale Simulated Wheat Yield

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castrignano, A.; Buttafuoco, G.; Matese, A.; Toscano, P.

    2014-12-01

    Population growth increases food request. Assessing food demand and predicting the actual supply for a given location are critical components of strategic food security planning at regional scale. Crop yield can be simulated using crop models because is site-specific and determined by weather, management, length of growing season and soil properties. Crop models require reliable location-specific data that are not generally available. Obtaining these data at a large number of locations is time-consuming, costly and sometimes simply not feasible. An upscaling method to extend coverage of sparse estimates of crop yield to an appropriate extrapolation domain is required. This work is aimed to investigate the applicability of a geostatistical data fusion approach for merging remote sensing data with the predictions of a simulation model of wheat growth and production using ground-based data. The study area is Capitanata plain (4000 km2) located in Apulia Region, mostly cropped with durum wheat. The MODIS EVI/NDVI data products for Capitanata plain were downloaded from the Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LPDAAC) remote for the whole crop cycle of durum wheat. Phenological development, biomass growth and grain quantity of durum wheat were simulated by the Delphi system, based on a crop simulation model linked to a database including soil properties, agronomical and meteorological data. Multicollocated cokriging was used to integrate secondary exhaustive information (multi-spectral MODIS data) with primary variable (sparsely distributed biomass/yield model predictions of durum wheat). The model estimates looked strongly spatially correlated with the radiance data (red and NIR bands) and the fusion data approach proved to be quite suitable and flexible to integrate data of different type and support.

  19. Preliminary Evaluation of the DUSTRAN Modeling Suite for Modeling Atmospheric Chloride Transport

    SciTech Connect

    Jensen, Philip; Tran, Tracy; Fritz, Bradley; Rutz, Frederick; Ross, Steven; Gorton, Alicia; Devanathan, Ram; Plante, Paul; Trainor, Kevin

    2016-05-03

    This study investigates the potential of DUSTRAN, a dust dispersion modeling system developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, to model the transport of sea salt aerosols (SSA). Results from DUSTRAN simulations run with historical meteorological data were compared against privately-measured chloride data at the near coastal Maine Yankee Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) and the Environmental Protection Agency-measured CASTNET data from Acadia National Park (NP). The comparisons have provided both encouragement as to the practical value of DUSTRAN’s CALPUFF model and suggestions for further software development opportunities. All modeled concentrations were within one order of magnitude of those measured and a few test cases showed excellent agreement between modeled and measured concentrations. However, there is a lack of consistency in discrepancy which may be due to inaccurate extrapolation of meteorological data, underlying model physics, and the source term. Future research will refine the software to better capture physical phenomena. Overall, results indicate that with parameter refinement, DUSTRAN has the potential to simulate atmospheric chloride transport from known sources to inland sites for the purpose of determining the corrosion susceptibility of various structures, systems, and components at the site.

  20. A multiple-point geostatistical method for characterizing uncertainty of subsurface alluvial units and its effects on flow and transport

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cronkite-Ratcliff, C.; Phelps, G.A.; Boucher, A.

    2012-01-01

    This report provides a proof-of-concept to demonstrate the potential application of multiple-point geostatistics for characterizing geologic heterogeneity and its effect on flow and transport simulation. The study presented in this report is the result of collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Stanford University. This collaboration focused on improving the characterization of alluvial deposits by incorporating prior knowledge of geologic structure and estimating the uncertainty of the modeled geologic units. In this study, geologic heterogeneity of alluvial units is characterized as a set of stochastic realizations, and uncertainty is indicated by variability in the results of flow and transport simulations for this set of realizations. This approach is tested on a hypothetical geologic scenario developed using data from the alluvial deposits in Yucca Flat, Nevada. Yucca Flat was chosen as a data source for this test case because it includes both complex geologic and hydrologic characteristics and also contains a substantial amount of both surface and subsurface geologic data. Multiple-point geostatistics is used to model geologic heterogeneity in the subsurface. A three-dimensional (3D) model of spatial variability is developed by integrating alluvial units mapped at the surface with vertical drill-hole data. The SNESIM (Single Normal Equation Simulation) algorithm is used to represent geologic heterogeneity stochastically by generating 20 realizations, each of which represents an equally probable geologic scenario. A 3D numerical model is used to simulate groundwater flow and contaminant transport for each realization, producing a distribution of flow and transport responses to the geologic heterogeneity. From this distribution of flow and transport responses, the frequency of exceeding a given contaminant concentration threshold can be used as an indicator of uncertainty about the location of the contaminant plume boundary.

  1. Numerical Modeling of Hailstorms and Hailstone Growth. Part I: Preliminary Model Verification and Sensitivity Tests.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farley, R. D.; Orville, H. D.

    1986-12-01

    This paper is the first in a three part series describing numerical simulations of hailstorms and hailstone growth using a two-dimensional, time-dependent cloud model. In this model. cloud water, cloud ice and rain are treated via standard parameterization technique The precipitating ice field is discretized into 20 logarith-mically spaced size categories which evolve in, and interact with the time-dependent dynamic framework. Ice particles are generated by the freezing of raindrops and via a parameterization of the Bergeron process. Growth of these ice particles is based on wet and dry growth concepts applied to the continuous accretion process.The model has been used to simulate a severe supercellular hailstorm from the National Hail Research Experiment These simulations include cases assuming various microphysical configurations of the model along with simplified cloud seeding experiments The simulations indicate many areas of agreement between the model results and observation chief among them being the characteristic sloping updraft and moving gust front, the rounded dome cloud top, the radar overhang, and the intense precipitation cascade. The major observed features which were not properly simulated were the persistent bounded weak echo region and the high concentrations of giant hail and associated high radar reflectivity values. The model results have also been compared to and are consistent with aircraft measurements of the thermodynamic structure of the subcloud region, and the basic internal structure of hailstorms.The model simulations and the storm were prodigious producers of surface rain and hail. The model was unable to simulate the vast amounts of large hail observed for this case, mainly due to depiction of the cloud water caused by embryo generation mechanisms being too efficient, although the two-dimensionality of the model may also limit hail production. Recirculation of hall embryos from the forward overhang back down into the leading edge of

  2. Geostatistic applied to seismic noise measurements for hydrothermal basin characterization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boaga, Jacopo; Trevisani, Sebastiano; Agostini, Laura; Galgaro, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    We present a geo-statistical analysis applied to seismic noise measurements in the framework of a thermal basin characterization. The site test is located in the N-E part of Italy (Caldiero, Verona Province) where more than 100 passive single station seismic noise measurements were conducted. The final aim was the characterization of an important hydrothermal basin, which is exploited since the Roman Period. The huge amount of measurements offers high density cover, since the measurements point has average spacing of 100 m for a total area investigated of ca 100ha. The HVSR (Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio) is a geophysical passive technique used to retrieve fundamental resonance frequency of the subsoil. The measurement consists in passive recording of seismic noise with 3 components broadband receivers. From the spectral analysis of the recorded data, we can retrieve the resonance frequency of soil and hence information about depth and mechanical properties of soil covers. Since HVSR is a punctual measurement, 2d map of the results are usually extracted with interpolation procedure, as common kriging or natural neighbor techniques. Despite this accurate statistical procedure are rarely adopted for HVSR analysis, limiting the real significance of the dataset. As a matter of fact, rigorous statistical approach of the spatial distribution is neglected in common HVSR geophysical prospecting. Here we present the use of advanced spatial-statistic technique (e.g. cross-validation, residual distribution etc.) applied to HVSR data. Our results show as critic data scrubbing, joined to rigorous statistical approach for data interpolation, are mandatory to assure meaningful structural interpretation of microtremor HVSR survey. The maps obtained are compared with boreholes data, reflection seismic prospecting, and geological information. The proposed procedure highlighted the potential of these quick passive measurements, if correctly treated from the statistical point

  3. Geostatistical applications in petroleum geology and sedimentary geology

    SciTech Connect

    Murray, C.J.

    1992-01-01

    Statistical tools can aid the geologist in understanding geologic data, and in the solution of real-world problems. This thesis examines several tools, concentrating on techniques with wide applicability in sedimentary and petroleum geology. A case study presents the use of geostatistics for mapping hydrocarbon pore volume and risk assessment in an area surrounding Amos Draw field in the northern Powder River basin of Wyoming. The study used sequential Gaussian and indicator simulation techniques, and documents the ability of indicator simulation to incorporate correlated secondary data. Reservoir characterization requires the generation of numerical grids of geologic properties. Because those properties differ for each rock type, one should first simulate the distribution of rock types, and then the distribution of the reservoir properties. This thesis proposes two multivariate statistical techniques, discriminant function analysis and cluster analysis, for the identification of petrophysical rock types in the Muddy Formation at Amos Draw. The geology of those rock types is discussed using core descriptions, thin-sections, and well log data. The rock types were simulated in three dimensions using indicator principal component simulation. The study also used simulated annealing for post-processing of the simulations, incorporating information from the wells on the transition frequencies between the rock types. The third case study used runs analysis for the identification of patterns in bed thickness and grain size in turbidites. Upward-thickening and thinning patterns have been used to assign turbidite sequences to depositional environments, although there has been disagreement on their identification. Runs analysis was applied to a turbidite section in the Sites Formation at Cache Creek, in northern California.

  4. Wolter X-Ray Microscope Computed Tomography Ray-Trace Model with Preliminary Simulation Results

    SciTech Connect

    Jackson, J A

    2006-02-27

    code, (5) description of the modeling code, (6) the results of a number of preliminary imaging simulations, and (7) recommendations for future Wolter designs and for further modeling studies.

  5. Kernel Density Reconstruction for Lagrangian Photochemical Modelling. Part 1: Model Formulation and Preliminary Tests

    SciTech Connect

    Monforti, F; Vitali, L; Bellasio, R; Bianconi, R

    2006-02-21

    In this paper a new approach to photochemical modeling is investigated and a lagrangian particle model named Photochemical Lagrangian Particle Model (PLPM) is described. Lagrangian particle models are a consolidated tool to deal with the dispersion of pollutants in the atmosphere. Good results have been obtained dealing with inert pollutants. In recent years, a number of pioneering works have shown as Lagrangian models can be of great interest when dealing with photochemistry, provided that special care is given in the reconstruction of chemicals concentration in the atmosphere. Density reconstruction can be performed through the so called ''box counting'' method: an Eulerian grid for chemistry is introduced and density is computed counting particles in each box. In this way one of the main advantages of the Lagrangian approach, the grid independence, is lost. Photochemical reactions are treated in PLPM by means of the complex chemical mechanism SAPRC90 and four density reconstruction methods have been developed, based on the kernel density estimator approach, in order to obtain grid-free accurate concentrations. These methods are all fully grid-free but they differ each other in considering local or global features of the particles distribution, in treating the Cartesian directions separately or together and in being based on receptors or particles positions in space.

  6. [Spatial distribution pattern of Chilo suppressalis analyzed by classical method and geostatistics].

    PubMed

    Yuan, Zheming; Fu, Wei; Li, Fangyi

    2004-04-01

    Two original samples of Chilo suppressalis and their grid, random and sequence samples were analyzed by classical method and geostatistics to characterize the spatial distribution pattern of C. suppressalis. The limitations of spatial distribution analysis with classical method, especially influenced by the original position of grid, were summarized rather completely. On the contrary, geostatistics characterized well the spatial distribution pattern, congregation intensity and spatial heterogeneity of C. suppressalis. According to geostatistics, the population was up to Poisson distribution in low density. As for higher density population, its distribution was up to aggregative, and the aggregation intensity and dependence range were 0.1056 and 193 cm, respectively. Spatial heterogeneity was also found in the higher density population. Its spatial correlativity in line direction was more closely than that in row direction, and the dependence ranges in line and row direction were 115 and 264 cm, respectively.

  7. Mathematical Model of Cold Cap—Preliminary One-Dimensional Model Development

    SciTech Connect

    Pokorny, Richard; Hrma, Pavel R.

    2011-03-25

    The ultimate goal of batch-melting studies, laboratory-scale, large-scale, or mathematical modeling is to increase the rate of glass processing in an energy-efficient manner. Mathematical models are not merely an intermediate step between laboratory-scale and large-scale studies, but are also an important tool for assessing the responses of melters to vast combinations of process parameters. In the simplest melting situation considered in this study, a cold cap of uniform thickness rests on a pool of molten glass from which it receives a steady uniform heat flux. Thus, as the feed-to-glass conversion proceeds, the temperature, velocity, and extent of feed reactions are functions of the position along the vertical coordinate, and these functions do not vary with time. This model is used for the sensitivity analyses on the effects of key parameters on the cold-cap behavior.

  8. Preliminary investigation of flow dynamics during the start-up of a bulb turbine model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coulaud, M.; Fraser, R.; Lemay, J.; Duquesne, P.; Aeschlimann, V.; Deschênes, C.

    2016-11-01

    Nowadays, the electricity network undergoes more perturbations due to the market demand. Additionally, an increase of the production from alternative resources such as wind or solar also induces important variations on the grid. Hydraulic power plants are used to respond quickly to these variations to stabilize the network. Hydraulic turbines have to face more frequent start-up and stop sequences that might shorten significantly their life time. In this context, an experimental analysis of start-up sequences has been conducted on the bulb turbine model of the BulbT project at the Hydraulic Machines Laboratory (LAMH) of Laval University. Maintaining a constant head, guide vanes are opened from 0 ° to 30 °. Three guide vanes opening speed have been chosen from 5 °/s to 20 °/s. Several repetitions were done for each guide vanes opening speed. During these sequences, synchronous time resolved measurements have been performed. Pressure signals were recorded at the runner inlet and outlet and along the draft tube. Also, 25 pressure measurements and strain measurements were obtained on the runner blades. Time resolved particle image velocimetry were used to evaluate flowrate during start-up for some repetitions. Torque fluctuations at shaft were also monitored. This paper presents the experimental set-up and start-up conditions chosen to simulate a prototype start-up. Transient flowrate methodology is explained and validation measurements are detailed. The preliminary results of global performances and runner pressure measurements are presented.

  9. Comparisons of the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) to Preliminary SDO EVE Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamberlin, Phillip

    2010-01-01

    The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) launched February 11,2010 from Kennedy Space Center and started normal science operations in April 2010. One of the instruments onboard SDO, the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE), will measure the solar EUV irradiance from 0.1-105 nm with 0.1 nm spectral resolution as well as a measure of the broad-band Lyman-Alpha emission (121.6 nm), all with less than 10 percent uncertainties. One of the biggest improvements of EVE over its predecessors is its ability to continuously measure the complete spectrum every 10 seconds, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. This temporal coverage and cadence will greatly enhance the knowledge of the solar EUV variations during solar flares. This paper will present a comparison of the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM), which can produce an estimated EUV spectrum at 10 seconds temporal resolution, to the preliminary results from SDO EVE. The discussion will focus on the short-term EUV flare variations and evolution.

  10. Flare Comparisons of the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) to Preliminary SDO EVE Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamberlon, Phillip C.

    2010-01-01

    The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) launched February 11, 2010 from Kennedy Space Center and started normal science operations in April 2010. One of the instruments onboard SDO, the EUV Variability- Experiment (EVE), will measure the solar EUV irradiance from 0.1-105 nm with 0.1 nm spectral resolution as well as a measure of the broad-band Lyman-Alpha emission (121.0 rim), all with less than 10 percent uncertainties. One of the biggest improvements of EVE over its predecessors is its ability to continuously measure the complete spectrum ever y 10 seconds, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. This temporal coverage and cadence will greatly enhance the knowledge of the solar EUV variations during solar flares. This paper will present a comparison of the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM), which can produce an estimated EUV spectrum at 10 seconds temporal resolution, to the preliminary flare observation results from SDO EVE. The discussion will focus on the short-term EUV flare variations and evolution.

  11. Simulating Late Ordovician deep ocean O2 with an earth system climate model. Preliminary results.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Amico, Daniel F.; Montenegro, Alvaro

    2016-04-01

    The geological record provides several lines of evidence that point to the occurrence of widespread and long lasting deep ocean anoxia during the Late Ordovician, between about 460-440 million years ago (ma). While a series of potential causes have been proposed, there is still large uncertainty regarding how the low oxygen levels came about. Here we use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) with Late Ordovician paleogeography to verify the impacts of paleogeography, bottom topography, nutrient loading and cycling and atmospheric concentrations of O2 and CO2 on deep ocean oxygen concentration during the period of interest. Preliminary results so far are based on 10 simulations (some still ongoing) covering the following parameter space: CO2 concentrations of 2240 to 3780 ppmv (~8x to 13x pre-industrial), atmospheric O2 ranging from 8% to 12% per volume, oceanic PO4 and NO3 loading from present day to double present day, reductions in wind speed of 50% and 30% (winds are provided as a boundary condition in the UVic ESCM). For most simulations the deep ocean remains well ventilated. While simulations with higher CO2, lower atmospheric O2 and greater nutrient loading generate lower oxygen concentration in the deep ocean, bottom anoxia - here defined as concentrations <10 μmol L-1 - in these cases is restricted to the high-latitue northern hemisphere. Further simulations will address the impact of greater nutrient loads and bottom topography on deep ocean oxygen concentrations.

  12. Fugacity based modeling for pollutant fate and transport during floods. Preliminary results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deda, M.; Fiorini, M.; Massabo, M.; Rudari, R.

    2010-09-01

    Fugacity based modeling for pollutant fate and transport during floods. Preliminary results Miranda Deda, Mattia Fiorini, Marco Massabò, Roberto Rudari One of the concerns that arises during floods is whether the wide-spreading of chemical contamination is associated with the flooding. Many potential sources of toxics releases during floods exists in cities or rural area; hydrocarbons fuel storage system, distribution facilities, commercial chemical storage, sewerage system are only few examples. When inundated homes and vehicles can also be source of toxics contaminants such as gasoline/diesel, detergents and sewage. Hazardous substances released into the environment are transported and dispersed in complex environmental systems that include air, plant, soil, water and sediment. Effective environmental models demand holistic modelling of the transport and transformation of the materials in the multimedia arena. Among these models, fugacity-based models are distribution based models incorporating all environmental compartments and are based on steady-state fluxes of pollutants across compartment interfaces (Mackay "Multimedia Environmental Models" 2001). They satisfy the primary objective of environmental chemistry which is to forecast the concentrations of pollutants in the environments with respect to space and time variables. Multimedia fugacity based-models has been used to assess contaminant distribution at very different spatial and temporal scales. The applications range from contaminant leaching to groundwater, runoff to surface water, partitioning in lakes and streams, distribution at regional and even global scale. We developped a two-dimensional fugacity based model for fate and transport of chemicals during floods. The model has three modules: the first module estimates toxins emission rates during floods; the second modules is the hydrodynamic model that simulates the water flood and the third module simulate the dynamic distribution of chemicals in

  13. Low Noise Results From IMS Site Surveys: A Preliminary New High-Frequency Low Noise Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebeling, C.; Astiz, L.; Starovoit, Y.; Tavener, N.; Perez, G.; Given, H. K.; Barrientos, S.; Yamamoto, M.; Hfaiedh, M.; Stewart, R.; Estabrook, C.

    2002-12-01

    Zimbabwe (Archaean granite). Based on a composite of the results from these five surveys, we propose a preliminary IMS Low-Noise Model (pIMS-LNM) consisting of a revision downward of Peterson's NLNM in the passband from 0.1 to about 0.7 s and an extension of Peterson's NLNM above 0.1 to 0.07 s. As these low noise results are derived from data recorded at temporary installations, improved resolution of this model will be possible when data from final installations become available. Preliminary International Monitoring System Low Noise Model (pIMS-LNM) for periods from 0.07 to 0.70 s. Decibels are relative to ground acceleration ((m/s2)2/Hz). Values presented in (Period, dB) format. Figure in bold is from Peterson's NLNM. [(0.07,-167.0),(0.08,-168.0),(0.09,-169.0),(0.10,-169.5), (0.11,-170.5),(0.13,-171.0),(0.14,-171.5),(0.17,-172.0), (0.20,-1 72.5),(0.25,-173.0),(0.30,-173.5),(0.40,-173.0), (0.50,-172.0),(0.60,-171.0),(0.70,-170.0),(0.80,-169.2)] Reference Peterson, J., 1993. Observations and Modeling of Seismic Background Noise, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 93-322, 47 p.

  14. Characterization of Ambient Air Pollution Measurement Error in a Time-Series Health Study using a Geostatistical Simulation Approach.

    PubMed

    Goldman, Gretchen T; Mulholland, James A; Russell, Armistead G; Gass, Katherine; Strickland, Matthew J; Tolbert, Paige E

    2012-09-01

    In recent years, geostatistical modeling has been used to inform air pollution health studies. In this study, distributions of daily ambient concentrations were modeled over space and time for 12 air pollutants. Simulated pollutant fields were produced for a 6-year time period over the 20-county metropolitan Atlanta area using the Stanford Geostatistical Modeling Software (SGeMS). These simulations incorporate the temporal and spatial autocorrelation structure of ambient pollutants, as well as season and day-of-week temporal and spatial trends; these fields were considered to be the true ambient pollutant fields for the purposes of the simulations that followed. Simulated monitor data at the locations of actual monitors were then generated that contain error representative of instrument imprecision. From the simulated monitor data, four exposure metrics were calculated: central monitor and unweighted, population-weighted, and area-weighted averages. For each metric, the amount and type of error relative to the simulated pollutant fields are characterized and the impact of error on an epidemiologic time-series analysis is predicted. The amount of error, as indicated by a lack of spatial autocorrelation, is greater for primary pollutants than for secondary pollutants and is only moderately reduced by averaging across monitors; more error will result in less statistical power in the epidemiologic analysis. The type of error, as indicated by the correlations of error with the monitor data and with the true ambient concentration, varies with exposure metric, with error in the central monitor metric more of the classical type (i.e., independent of the monitor data) and error in the spatial average metrics more of the Berkson type (i.e., independent of the true ambient concentration). Error type will affect the bias in the health risk estimate, with bias toward the null and away from the null predicted depending on the exposure metric; population-weighting yielded the

  15. Examining the spatial distribution of flower thrips in southern highbush blueberries by utilizing geostatistical methods.

    PubMed

    Rhodes, Elena M; Liburd, Oscar E; Grunwald, Sabine

    2011-08-01

    Flower thrips (Frankliniella spp.) are one of the key pests of southern highbush blueberries (Vaccinium corymbosum L. x V. darrowii Camp), a high-value crop in Florida. Thrips' feeding and oviposition injury to flowers can result in fruit scarring that renders the fruit unmarketable. Flower thrips often form areas of high population, termed "hot spots", in blueberry plantings. The objective of this study was to model thrips spatial distribution patterns with geostatistical techniques. Semivariogram models were used to determine optimum trap spacing and two commonly used interpolation methods, inverse distance weighting (IDW) and ordinary kriging (OK), were compared for their ability to model thrips spatial patterns. The experimental design consisted of a grid of 100 white sticky traps spaced at 15.24-m and 7.61-m intervals in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Thirty additional traps were placed randomly throughout the sampling area to collect information on distances shorter than the grid spacing. The semivariogram analysis indicated that, in most cases, spacing traps at least 28.8 m apart would result in spatially independent samples. Also, the 7.61-m grid spacing captured more of the thrips spatial variability than the 15.24-m grid spacing. IDW and OK produced maps with similar accuracy in both years, which indicates that thrips spatial distribution patterns, including "hot spots," can be modeled using either interpolation method. Future studies can use this information to determine if the formation of "hot spots" can be predicted using flower density, temperature, and other environmental factors. If so, this development would allow growers to spot treat the "hot spots" rather than their entire field.

  16. Preliminary study of verteporfin photodynamic therapy in a canine prostate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Zheng; Hetzel, Fred; Dole, Ken; Luck, David; Beckers, Jill; Maul, Don

    2009-06-01

    Photodynamic therapy (PDT) mediated with verteporfin was investigated as an alternative modality for the treatment of prostate cancer. Materials and Methods: Vertoporfin-mediated photodynamic effects on the prostate and its adjacent structures (underlying colon and bladder) were evaluated in a healthy canine model. Interstitial prostate PDT was performed by irradiating individual lobes with a diode laser (689 nm) and 1-cm cylindrical diffuser fibers at various light doses and drug-light intervals (DLI) to activate the IV administrated photosensitizer (0.5 or 2 mg/kg). The sensitivity of the adjacent tissues to Vertoporfin-PDT was determined by superficially irradiating the serosal surface of the bladder and colon with a microlens fiber. The prostate and adjacent tissues were harvested one-week after the treatment and subjected to histopathological examination. Results: Histopathological examinations confirmed that verteporfin PDT could destroy a clinically significant volume of prostatic tissue in the animal model. At the drug dose of 0.5 mg/kg, the light irradiation of 100 J/cm could induce a lesion diameter of 2 cm at DLI of 15 min and 1.2 cm at DLI of 3 hrs, respectively. This implies a strong influence of DLI on the lesion volume. The shorter DLI might produce stronger vascular effect and therefore more severe tissue damage. The colon was more sensitive to verteporfin PDT than the bladder. At the possible light dose level caused by light scattering during intra-prostate irradiation, the damage to the bladder and colon were superficial and minimal. Conclusions: The preliminary results clearly demonstrate that verteporfin PDT could be an effective means to destroy prostate gland and its usefulness for the treatment of prostate cancer is worth further investigation.

  17. A preliminary model for the development of sporadic serous ovarian adenocarcinoma

    SciTech Connect

    Chenevix-Trench, G.; Kerr, J.; Hurst, T.

    1994-09-01

    The genetic events that give rise to ovarian adenocarcinoma are poorly understood, nor is it known whether the benign, low malignant potential (LMP) and malignant tumors represent a continuum. This study reports K-ras mutation and loss of heterozygosity (LOH) analysis in 116 tumors, including benign and LMP tumors, on twelve chromosomes chosen mainly because they contain candidate suppressor genes. The data were analyzed with respect to clinicopathological information. The highest rates of LOH were on chromosomes 17 and 18. With the exception of chromosomes 2 and X, all the others were deleted in 25-50% of tumors. Significant associations were found between LOH on chromosomes 7 and 9p, and between chromosomes 5, 17 and 18. LOH was observed in benign and LMP tumors on chromosomes 7 and 9, and homozygous deletions of markers at 9p21 were detected in 2/10 ovarian tumor cell lines. The target of the 9p deletions is likely to be the MTS1/p16 cdk4 inhibitor gene and mutation analysis is under way. A single tumor had a rearrangement of the plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 locus on chromosome 7 but deletion mapping indicates that this may not be the target of chromosome 7 LOH. K-ras mutations were detected in nine tumors, and were significantly more common in LMP than in malignant tumors. A preliminary genetic model for ovarian tumorigenesis in presented based on these and published data. This model proposes that LMP and malignant tumors arise independently in benign neoplasms in which LOH of chromosomes 7 and 9 has occurred. LMP tumors then develop following activation of the K-ras oncogene, while malignant tumors arise from inactivation of p53 and many other tumor suppressor genes.

  18. Dynamical ice sheet model coupling with the GEOS-5 AGCM: A preliminary assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cullather, R. I.; Zhao, B.; Nowicki, S.; Suarez, M. J.

    2013-12-01

    Dynamical ice sheet models (ISMs) have been developed to address well-known limitations in eustatic change prediction capabilities. Coupling ISMs to an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is not straightforward, due in part to the extreme difference in spatial scales between the ISM mesh and AGCM grid. In given locations, ISM element edge lengths may be a few km or less, while the AGCM typically has grid spacings on the order of 10s to 100s of km. The Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) is a finite-volume AGCM and employs a cube-sphere atmospheric grid (nominally 1° resolution) and a catchment-based land surface scheme that operates on sub-grid scale areas, or tiles, that describe surface characteristics. The land surface component communicates with the atmosphere on a semi-implicit time step via the exchange grid. In this study, coupling between the AGCM and the ISM is facilitated through sub-grid scale land surface tiles that are defined for each element of the ISM. The ISM used here is the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) from NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Univ. California at Irvine, which has been adapted for the Greenland Ice Sheet using the 72,320-element Schlagel mesh and using a shallow ice approximation. In the AGCM, land surface tiles are uniquely characterized through a simple downscaling parameterization of surface temperature within each AGCM grid box using a defined lapse rate. On each land surface tile, GEOS-5 employs an advanced snow hydrology model for improved representation of the ice sheet surface mass balance. This preliminary assessment focuses on the differences in the AGCM surface mass balance and surface temperature fields resulting from the downscaling measures employed in the context of an exchange grid, semi-implicit coupling with the atmosphere, and the response of the ISM. Differences in AGCM computational performance with the addition of Greenland tiles is examined, and comparative advantages of

  19. Development and Preliminary Evaluation of a Particulate Matter Emission Factor Model for European Motor Vehicles.

    PubMed

    Singh, Rakesh B; Colls, Jeremy J

    2000-10-01

    Although modeling of gaseous emissions from motor vehicles is now quite advanced, prediction of particulate emissions is still at an unsophisticated stage. Emission factors for gasoline vehicles are not reliably available, since gasoline vehicles are not included in the European Union (EU) emission test procedure. Regarding diesel vehicles, emission factors are available for different driving cycles but give little information about change of emissions with speed or engine load. We have developed size-specific speed-dependent emission factors for gasoline and diesel vehicles. Other vehicle-generated emission factors are also considered and the empirical equation for re-entrained road dust is modified to include humidity effects. A methodology is proposed to calculate modal (accelerating, cruising, or idling) emission factors. The emission factors cover particle size ranges up to 10 um, either from published data or from user-defined size distributions. A particulate matter emission factor model (PMFAC), which incorporates virtually all the available information on particulate emissions for European motor vehicles, has been developed. PMFAC calculates the emission factors for five particle size ranges [i.e., total suspended particulates (TSP), PM10, PM5, PM25, and PM1] from both vehicle exhaust and nonexhaust emissions, such as tire wear, brake wear, and re-entrained road dust. The model can be used for an unlimited number of roads and lanes, and to calculate emission factors near an intersection in user-defined elements of the lane. PMFAC can be used for a variety of fleet structures. Hot emission factors at the user-defined speed can be calculated for individual vehicles, along with relative cold-to-hot emission factors. The model accounts for the proportions of distance driven with cold engines as a function of ambient temperature and road type (i.e., urban, rural, or motorway). A preliminary evaluation of PMFAC with an available dispersion model to predict the

  20. Development and preliminary evaluation of a particulate matter emission factor model for European motor vehicles.

    PubMed

    Singh, R B; Colls, J J

    2000-10-01

    Although modeling of gaseous emissions from motor vehicles is now quite advanced, prediction of particulate emissions is still at an unsophisticated stage. Emission factors for gasoline vehicles are not reliably available, since gasoline vehicles are not included in the European Union (EU) emission test procedure. Regarding diesel vehicles, emission factors are available for different driving cycles but give little information about change of emissions with speed or engine load. We have developed size-specific speed-dependent emission factors for gasoline and diesel vehicles. Other vehicle-generated emission factors are also considered and the empirical equation for re-entrained road dust is modified to include humidity effects. A methodology is proposed to calculate modal (accelerating, cruising, or idling) emission factors. The emission factors cover particle size ranges up to 10 microns, either from published data or from user-defined size distributions. A particulate matter emission factor model (PMFAC), which incorporates virtually all the available information on particulate emissions for European motor vehicles, has been developed. PMFAC calculates the emission factors for five particle size ranges [i.e., total suspended particulates (TSP), PM10, PM5, PM2.5, and PM1] from both vehicle exhaust and nonexhaust emissions, such as tire wear, brake wear, and re-entrained road dust. The model can be used for an unlimited number of roads and lanes, and to calculate emission factors near an intersection in user-defined elements of the lane. PMFAC can be used for a variety of fleet structures. Hot emission factors at the user-defined speed can be calculated for individual vehicles, along with relative cold-to-hot emission factors. The model accounts for the proportions of distance driven with cold engines as a function of ambient temperature and road type (i.e., urban, rural, or motorway). A preliminary evaluation of PMFAC with an available dispersion model to predict

  1. Potential of the Galaxy from the Besançon galaxy model including non-axisymmetric components: Preliminary results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernández-Trincado, J. G.; Robin, A. C.; Bienaymé, O.; Reylé, C.; Valenzuela, O.; Pichardo, B.

    2014-07-01

    In this contributed poster we present a preliminary attempt to compute a non-axisymmetric potential together with previous axisymmetric potential of the Besançon galaxy model. The contribution by non-axisymmetric components are modeled by the superposition of inhomogeneous ellipsoids to approximate the triaxial bar and superposition of homogeneous oblate spheroids for a stellar halo, possibly triaxial. Finally, we have computed the potential and force field for these non-axisymmetric components in order to constraint the total mass of the Milky Way. We present preliminary results for the rotation curve and the contribution of the bar to it. This approach will allow future studies of dynamical constraints from comparisons of kinematical simulations with upcoming surveys such as RAVE, BRAVA, APOGEE, and GAIA in the near future. More details, are presented in https://gaia.ub.edu/Twiki/pub/GREATITNFC/ProgramFinalconference/Poster_JG.Fern%e1ndez.pdf.

  2. Testing the channel flow model in the eastern Himalaya, eastern Bhutan: insights from preliminary thermobarometric data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agustsson, K. S.; Gordon, S. M.; Long, S. P.; Seward, G. G.; Zeiger, K. J.; Penfold, M. L.

    2013-12-01

    The study of modern continent-continent collision provides insight into the links between the upper and lower crust, including the processes involved in the deep burial and exhumation of crustal rocks. Rocks of the Greater Himalayan Sequence (GHS), which were buried to mid- to lower-crustal levels, are exposed throughout the Himalayan orogenic belt, between the top-to-the-south Main Central Thrust and the top-to-the-north South Tibetan Detachment. The GHS consists of orthogneiss, metasedimentary rocks, and large-scale (>100 km2) leucogranite bodies. Within the Bhutan Himalaya, the top-to-the south Kakhtang Thrust (KT) separates the GHS into upper (GHSu) and lower (GHSl) structural levels. Previous studies have mapped the location of the KT by the crossing of the second sillimanite isograd and by a significant increase in the volume of crystallized melt. Previous work in Bhutan has mainly focused on the GHSl, whereas the extrusion of the higher-temperature GHSu has not been well studied, and there is little quantitative data describing the P-T history of these rocks. In order to test between different end-member models for the exhumation of the GHSu, including channel flow and critical taper, new thermobarometry data was collected from a transect of samples across the KT. The channel-flow model predicts that the GHSu would have achieved peak upper-amphibolite facies P-T conditions followed by retrograde, near-isothermal decompression. In contrast, the critical-taper model predicts near-isobaric cooling of the GHSu. The electron microprobe at UC-Santa Barbara was used to measure the composition of and test for zoning within garnet, plagioclase, and biotite. Garnets in all four samples are typically subhedral to euhedral and show relatively weak zonation and flat Mg, Fe, and Ca profiles. A few garnets do exhibit bell-shaped Mn and Ca profiles. In addition, a ca. 100 μm rim high in Mg, Ca and Mn but low in Fe is present on all garnets and is indicative of diffusional

  3. Preliminary Development of a Unified Viscoplastic Constitutive Model for Alloy 617 with Special Reference to Long Term Creep Behavior

    SciTech Connect

    Sham, Sam; Walker, Kevin P.

    2008-01-01

    The expected service life of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant is 60 years. Structural analyses of the Intermediate Heat Exchanger (IHX) will require the development of unified viscoplastic constitutive models that address the material behavior of Alloy 617, a construction material of choice, over a wide range of strain rates. Many unified constitutive models employ a yield stress state variable which is used to account for cyclic hardening and softening of the material. For low stress values below the yield stress state variable these constitutive models predict that no inelastic deformation takes place which is contrary to experimental results. The ability to model creep deformation at low stresses for the IHX application is very important as the IHX operational stresses are restricted to very small values due to the low creep strengths at elevated temperatures and long design lifetime. This paper presents some preliminary work in modeling the unified viscoplastic constitutive behavior of Alloy 617 which accounts for the long term, low stress, creep behavior and the hysteretic behavior of the material at elevated temperatures. The preliminary model is presented in one-dimensional form for ease of understanding, but the intent of the present work is to produce a three-dimensional model suitable for inclusion in the user subroutines UMAT and USERPL of the ABAQUS and ANSYS nonlinear finite element codes. Further experiments and constitutive modeling efforts are planned to model the material behavior of Alloy 617 in more detail.

  4. Geostatistical characteristic of space-time variation in quality parameters in Klodzko water supply system (SW part of Poland)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Namysłowska-Wilczyńska, Barbara

    2015-04-01

    Selected results of research connected with the development of a (3D) geostatistical hydrogeochemical model of the Klodzko city area, dedicated to the spatial and time variation in the quality parameters in the Klodzko water supply system (SW part of Poland) will be presented. The research covers the period 2007 ÷ 2011. Spatial analyses of the variation in three different quality parameters, i.e. Fe iron [g/m3] content, Mn manganese [g/m3] content and NH4+ ammonium ion [g/m3] content, were carried out. Spatial and time variation in the parameters was analyzed on the basis of the data (2007 ÷ 2011). Thematic databases, containing original data on coordinates X, Y (latitude and longitude) and Z (time - years) and on regionalized variables, i.e. the water quality parameters in the Klodzko water supply system, were created. The input for the studies were the chemical determinations of the quality parameters of water samples taken in the Klodzko water supply system area in different periods of time. These data were subjected to spatial analyses using geostatistical methods. The geostatistical parameters of the assumed theoretical models of directional semivariograms functions of the studied water quality parameters, calculated for the time (years) interval, were used in the ordinary (block) kriging estimation. Generally, the behaviour of the quality parameters in the Klodzko water supply system has been found to vary in space and time. Thanks to the multidirectional spatial analyses some regularities in the variation in the water supply system in the Klodzko city area have been identified. In the considered time interval, the shapes of the directional Fe iron content semivariogram show a tendency to vary periodically. The courses of the directional semivariograms of Mn manganese content and NH4+ ammonium ion content show some tendencies towards directional variation over the passing years: distinctly expressed trends of variability for Mn content and stronger for NH4

  5. Preliminary Model Comparison Results From the Sim-SEQ Project Using TOUGH2, STOMP, Eclipse, and VESA Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Mukhopadhyay, Sumit; Doughty, Christine A.; Bacon, Diana H.; Bacci, Giacomo; Govindan, Rajesh; Shi, Ji-Quan; Gasda, Sarah E.; Ramanathan, Ramya; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Hosseini, Seyyed; Birkholzer, Jens

    2013-11-01

    Sim-SEQ is an international initiative on model comparison for geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), with an objective to understand and, if possible, quantify model uncertainties. Model comparison efforts in Sim-SEQ are initially limited to one specific field test site, hereafter referred to as the Sim-SEQ Study site (or S-3 site). Within Sim-SEQ, different modeling teams are developing conceptual models of CO2 injection at the S-3 site. One of the conceptual models, developed by the LBNL team, is based on TOUGH2/EOS7C. In this paper, we present some preliminary model predictions of the S-3 site using the TOUGH2/EOS7C simulator. We also compare the predictions of the TOUGH2 simulator with three other conceptual models, developed by three different organizations, of the S-3 site.

  6. Novel applications of multiple-point geostatistics in remote sensing, geophysics, climate science and surface hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mariethoz, G.; Jha, S. K.; McCabe, M. F.; Evans, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Recent advances in multiple-point geostatistics (MPS) offer new possibilities in remote sensing, surface hydrology and climate modeling. MPS is an ensemble of tools for the characterization of spatial phenomena. Its most prominent characteristic is the use of training images for defining what type of spatial patterns are deemed to result from the processes under study. In the last decade, MPS have been increasingly used to characterize 3D subsurface structures consisting of geological facies, with application primarily to reservoir engineering, hydrogeology and mining. Although the methods show good results, a consistent difficulty relates to finding appropriate training images to describe largely unknown geological formations. Despite this issue, the growing interest in MPS triggered a series of different methodological advances, leading to improved computational performance and increased flexibility. With these recent improvements, the scientific community now has unprecedented numerical tools that allow dealing with a wide range of problems outside the realm of subsurface applications. These include the simulation of continuous variables as well as complex non-linear ensembles of multivariate properties. It is found that these new tools are ideal to address a number of issues in scientific fields related to surface modeling of environmental systems and geophysical data. Shifting focus and investigating the application of MPS to surface hydrology results in a wealth of training images that are readily available, thanks to global networks of remote sensing measurements. This presentation will delineate recent results in this direction, including MPS applications to the stochastic downscaling of climate models, the completion of partially informed remote sensing images and the processing of geophysical data. A major advantage is the use of satellite images taken at regular intervals, which can be used to inform both the spatial and temporal variability of

  7. Estimating the Depth of Stratigraphic Units from Marine Seismic Profiles Using Nonstationary Geostatistics

    SciTech Connect

    Chihi, Hayet; Galli, Alain; Ravenne, Christian; Tesson, Michel; Marsily, Ghislain de

    2000-03-15

    The object of this study is to build a three-dimensional (3D) geometric model of the stratigraphic units of the margin of the Rhone River on the basis of geophysical investigations by a network of seismic profiles at sea. The geometry of these units is described by depth charts of each surface identified by seismic profiling, which is done by geostatistics. The modeling starts by a statistical analysis by which we determine the parameters that enable us to calculate the variograms of the identified surfaces. After having determined the statistical parameters, we calculate the variograms of the variable Depth. By analyzing the behavior of the variogram we then can deduce whether the situation is stationary and if the variable has an anisotropic behavior. We tried the following two nonstationary methods to obtain our estimates: (a) The method of universal kriging if the underlying variogram was directly accessible. (b) The method of increments if the underlying variogram was not directly accessible. After having modeled the variograms of the increments and of the variable itself, we calculated the surfaces by kriging the variable Depth on a small-mesh estimation grid. The two methods then are compared and their respective advantages and disadvantages are discussed, as well as their fields of application. These methods are capable of being used widely in earth sciences for automatic mapping of geometric surfaces or for variables such as a piezometric surface or a concentration, which are not 'stationary,' that is, essentially, possess a gradient or a tendency to develop systematically in space.

  8. Porous media flux sensitivity to pore-scale geostatistics: A bottom-up approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Palma, P. R.; Guyennon, N.; Heße, F.; Romano, E.

    2017-04-01

    Macroscopic properties of flow through porous media can be directly computed by solving the Navier-Stokes equations at the scales related to the actual flow processes, while considering the porous structures in an explicit way. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of the pore-scale spatial distribution on seepage velocity through numerical simulations of 3D fluid flow performed by the lattice Boltzmann method. To this end, we generate multiple random Gaussian fields whose spatial correlation follows an assigned semi-variogram function. The Exponential and Gaussian semi-variograms are chosen as extreme-cases of correlation for short distances and statistical properties of the resulting porous media (indicator field) are described using the Matèrn covariance model, with characteristic lengths of spatial autocorrelation (pore size) varying from 2% to 13% of the linear domain. To consider the sensitivity of the modeling results to the geostatistical representativeness of the domain as well as to the adopted resolution, porous media have been generated repetitively with re-initialized random seeds and three different resolutions have been tested for each resulting realization. The main difference among results is observed between the two adopted semi-variograms, indicating that the roughness (short distances autocorrelation) is the property mainly affecting the flux. However, computed seepage velocities show additionally a wide variability (about three orders of magnitude) for each semi-variogram model in relation to the assigned correlation length, corresponding to pore sizes. The spatial resolution affects more the results for short correlation lengths (i.e., small pore sizes), resulting in an increasing underestimation of the seepage velocity with the decreasing correlation length. On the other hand, results show an increasing uncertainty as the correlation length approaches the domain size.

  9. MSFC Stream Model Preliminary Results: Modeling Recent Leonid and Perseid Encounters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooke, William J.; Moser, Danielle E.

    2004-01-01

    The cometary meteoroid ejection model of Jones and Brown (1996b) was used to simulate ejection from comets 55P/Tempel-Tuttle during the last 12 revolutions, and the last 9 apparitions of 109P/Swift-Tuttle. Using cometary ephemerides generated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory s (JPL) HORIZONS Solar System Data and Ephemeris Computation Service, two independent ejection schemes were simulated. In the first case, ejection was simulated in 1 hour time steps along the comet s orbit while it was within 2.5 AU of the Sun. In the second case, ejection was simulated to occur at the hour the comet reached perihelion. A 4th order variable step-size Runge-Kutta integrator was then used to integrate meteoroid position and velocity forward in time, accounting for the effects of radiation pressure, Poynting-Robertson drag, and the gravitational forces of the planets, which were computed using JPL s DE406 planetary ephemerides. An impact parameter was computed for each particle approaching the Earth to create a flux profile, and the results compared to observations of the 1998 and 1999 Leonid showers, and the 1993 and 2004 Perseids.

  10. Adaptive geostatistical sampling enables efficient identification of malaria hotspots in repeated cross-sectional surveys in rural Malawi

    PubMed Central

    Chipeta, Michael G.; McCann, Robert S.; Phiri, Kamija S.; van Vugt, Michèle; Takken, Willem; Diggle, Peter; Terlouw, Anja D.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction In the context of malaria elimination, interventions will need to target high burden areas to further reduce transmission. Current tools to monitor and report disease burden lack the capacity to continuously detect fine-scale spatial and temporal variations of disease distribution exhibited by malaria. These tools use random sampling techniques that are inefficient for capturing underlying heterogeneity while health facility data in resource-limited settings are inaccurate. Continuous community surveys of malaria burden provide real-time results of local spatio-temporal variation. Adaptive geostatistical design (AGD) improves prediction of outcome of interest compared to current random sampling techniques. We present findings of continuous malaria prevalence surveys using an adaptive sampling design. Methods We conducted repeated cross sectional surveys guided by an adaptive sampling design to monitor the prevalence of malaria parasitaemia and anaemia in children below five years old in the communities living around Majete Wildlife Reserve in Chikwawa district, Southern Malawi. AGD sampling uses previously collected data to sample new locations of high prediction variance or, where prediction exceeds a set threshold. We fitted a geostatistical model to predict malaria prevalence in the area. Findings We conducted five rounds of sampling, and tested 876 children aged 6–59 months from 1377 households over a 12-month period. Malaria prevalence prediction maps showed spatial heterogeneity and presence of hotspots—where predicted malaria prevalence was above 30%; predictors of malaria included age, socio-economic status and ownership of insecticide-treated mosquito nets. Conclusions Continuous malaria prevalence surveys using adaptive sampling increased malaria prevalence prediction accuracy. Results from the surveys were readily available after data collection. The tool can assist local managers to target malaria control interventions in areas with the

  11. Simulation of Solute Flow and Transport in a Geostatistically Generated Fractured Porous System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Assteerawatt, A.; Helmig, R.; Haegland, H.; Bárdossy, A.

    2007-12-01

    Fractured aquifer systems have provided important natural resources such as petroleum, gas, water and geothermal energy and have also been recently under investigation for their suitability as storage sites for high-level nuclear waste. The resource exploitation and potential utilization have led to extensive studies aiming of understanding, characterizing and finally predicting the behavior of fractured aquifer systems. By applying a discrete model approach to study flow and transport processes, fractures are determined discretely and the effect of individual fractures can be explicitly investigated. The critical step for the discrete model is the generation of a representative fracture network since the development of flow paths within a fractured system strongly depends on its structure. The geostatistical fracture generation (GFG) developed in this study aims to create a representative fracture network, which combines the spatial structures and connectivity of a fracture network, and the statistical distribution of fracture geometries. The spatial characteristics are characterized from indicator fields, which are evaluated from fracture trace maps. A global optimization, Simulated annealing, is utilized as a generation technique and the spatial characteristics are formulated to its objective function. We apply the GFG to a case study at a Pliezhausen field block, which is a sandstone of a high fracture density. The generated fracture network from the GFG are compared with the statistically generated fracture network in term of structure and hydraulic behavior. As the GFG is based on a stochastic concept, several realizations of the same descriptions can be generated, hence, an overall behavior of the fracture-matrix system have to be investigated from various realizations which leads to a problem of computational demand. In order to overcome this problem, a streamline method for a solute transport in a fracture porous system is presented. The results obtained

  12. Geostatistical analysis of soil geochemical data from an industrial area (Puertollano, South-Central Spain).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esbrí, José M.; Higueras, Pablo; López-Berdonces, Miguel A.; García-Noguero, Eva M.; González-Corrochano, Beatriz; Fernández-Calderón, Sergio; Martínez-Coronado, Alba

    2015-04-01

    Puertollano is the biggest industrial city of Castilla-La Mancha, with 48,086 inhabitants. It is located 250 km South of Madrid in the North border of the Ojailén River valley. The industrial area includes a big coal open pit (ENCASUR), two power plants (EON and ELCOGAS), a petrochemical complex (REPSOL) and a fertiliser factory (ENFERSA), all located in the proximities of the town. These industries suppose a complex scenario in terms of metals and metalloids emissions. For instance, mercury emissions declared to PRTR inventory during 2010 were 210 kg year-1 (REPSOL), 130 kg year-1 (ELCOGAS) and 11,9 kg year-1 (EON). Besides it still remains an unaccounted possibly of diffuse sources of other potentially toxic elements coming from the different industrial sites. Multielemental analyses of soils from two different depths covering the whole valley were carried out by means of XRF with a portable Oxford Instruments device. Geostatistical data treatment was performed using SURFER software, applying block kriging to obtain interpolation maps for the study area. Semivariograms of elemental concentrations make a clear distinction between volatile (Hg, Se) and non-volatile elements (Cu, Ni), with differences in scales and variances between the two soil horizons considered. Semivariograms also show different models for elements emitted by combustion processes (Ni) and for anomalous elements from geological substrate (Pb, Zn). In addition to differences in anisotropy of data, these models reflect different forms of elemental dispersion; despite this, identification of particular sources for the different elements is not possible for this geochemical data set.

  13. Massively Parallel Geostatistical Inversion of Coupled Processes in Heterogeneous Porous Media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ngo, A.; Schwede, R. L.; Li, W.; Bastian, P.; Ippisch, O.; Cirpka, O. A.

    2012-04-01

    The quasi-linear geostatistical approach is an inversion scheme that can be used to estimate the spatial distribution of a heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity field. The estimated parameter field is considered to be a random variable that varies continuously in space, meets the measurements of dependent quantities (such as the hydraulic head, the concentration of a transported solute or its arrival time) and shows the required spatial correlation (described by certain variogram models). This is a method of conditioning a parameter field to observations. Upon discretization, this results in as many parameters as elements of the computational grid. For a full three dimensional representation of the heterogeneous subsurface it is hardly sufficient to work with resolutions (up to one million parameters) of the model domain that can be achieved on a serial computer. The forward problems to be solved within the inversion procedure consists of the elliptic steady-state groundwater flow equation and the formally elliptic but nearly hyperbolic steady-state advection-dominated solute transport equation in a heterogeneous porous medium. Both equations are discretized by Finite Element Methods (FEM) using fully scalable domain decomposition techniques. Whereas standard conforming FEM is sufficient for the flow equation, for the advection dominated transport equation, which rises well known numerical difficulties at sharp fronts or boundary layers, we use the streamline diffusion approach. The arising linear systems are solved using efficient iterative solvers with an AMG (algebraic multigrid) pre-conditioner. During each iteration step of the inversion scheme one needs to solve a multitude of forward and adjoint problems in order to calculate the sensitivities of each measurement and the related cross-covariance matrix of the unknown parameters and the observations. In order to reduce interprocess communications and to improve the scalability of the code on larger clusters

  14. Estimating Solar PV Output Using Modern Space/Time Geostatistics (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, S. J.; George, R.; Bush, B.

    2009-04-29

    This presentation describes a project that uses mapping techniques to predict solar output at subhourly resolution at any spatial point, develop a methodology that is applicable to natural resources in general, and demonstrate capability of geostatistical techniques to predict the output of a potential solar plant.

  15. Adapting geostatistics to analyze spatial and temporal trends in weed populations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Geostatistics were originally developed in mining to estimate the location, abundance and quality of ore over large areas from soil samples to optimize future mining efforts. Here, some of these methods were adapted to weeds to account for a limited distribution area (i.e., inside a field), variatio...

  16. Oil Spill Detection and Modelling: Preliminary Results for the Cercal Accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    da Costa, R. T.; Azevedo, A.; da Silva, J. C. B.; Oliveira, A.

    2013-03-01

    two-dimensional surface plume transport model VOILS [1] with the oil spreading formulation enabled. The remaining oil weathering processes (evaporation, emulsification, dispersion and dissolution in the water column) and shoreline retention were disregarded. The computational structure of the model is based on Eulerian-Lagrangian formulations, horizontal unstructured mesh discretization and it is soft-coupled with the tri-dimensional hydrodynamic model SELFE - Semi-Implicit Eulerian Lagrangian Finite Element [15] that uses hybrid sigma-Z coordinates in the vertical. The preliminary results of this hindcast simulation for the Cercal oil spill are presented and compared with available satellite SAR images. The forcings used play an important role in the final results. During the late stage spreading phases of the oil, about one month after the spill, the Douro River outflow is best seen in the SAR images. The morphology of the river outflow is discussed according to traditional coastal dynamics, and compared with model results. In addition to several interesting physical features that were identified, we report on the generation of Internal Solitary Waves (ISW) in the vicinity of the Douro River Plume (DRP). It is well known that trains of short-period internal waves can be generated by river plumes (such as the Columbia River). The internal structure of the observed internal waves (elevation waves or mode-2 versus mode-1 internal waves) is discussed based on the SAR signatures and available stratification. The present work has been conducted under an FCT - Fundaç ão para a Ciência e a Tecnologia / MCTES - Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior (PIDDAC - Programa de Investimentos e Despesas de Desenvolvimento da Administraç ão Central) Portuguese funded project entitled PAC:MAN Pollution accidents in coastal areas: a Risk management system (PTDC/AACAMB/113469/2008).

  17. Modeling EEG fractal dimension changes in wake and drowsy states in humans--a preliminary study.

    PubMed

    Bojić, Tijana; Vuckovic, Aleksandra; Kalauzi, Aleksandar

    2010-01-21

    Aim of this preliminary study was to examine and compare topographic distribution of Higuchi's fractal dimension (FD, measure of signal complexity) of EEG signals between states of relaxed wakefulness and drowsiness, as well as their FD differences. The experiments were performed on 10 healthy individuals using a fourteen-channel montage. An explanation is offered on the causes of the detected FD changes. FD values of 60s records belonging to wake (Hori's stage 1) and drowsy (Hori's stages 2-4) states were calculated for each channel and each subject. In 136 out of 140 epochs an increase in FD was obtained. Relationship between signal FD and its relative alpha amplitude was mathematically modeled and we quantitatively demonstrated that the increase in FD was predominantly due to a reduction in alpha activity. The model was generalized to include other EEG oscillations. By averaging FD values for each channel across 10 subjects, four clusters (O2O1; T6P4T5P3; C3F3F4C4F8F7; T4T3) for the wake and two clusters (O2O1P3T6P4T5; C3C4F4F3F8T4T3F7) for the drowsy state were statistically verified. Topographic distribution of FD values in wakefulness showed a lateral symmetry and a partial fronto-occipital gradient. In drowsiness, a reduction in the number of clusters was detected, due to regrouping of channels T3, T4, O1 and O2. Topographic distribution of absolute FD differences revealed largest values at F7, O1 and F3. Reorganization of channel clusters showed that regionalized brain activity, specific for wakefulness, became more global by entering into drowsiness. Since the global increase in FD during wake-to-drowsy transition correlated with the decrease of alpha power, we inferred that increase of EEG complexity may not necessarily be an index of brain activation.

  18. Gd uptake experiments for preliminary set of functionalized adsorbents (with content model)

    DOE Data Explorer

    Clinton Noack

    2015-03-16

    These data summarize adsorption experiments conducted with Gd in 0.5 M NaCl. Results represent preliminary, proof-of-concept data utilizing fine-powder silica gel as the adsorbent support. Future testing will focus on larger, application-appropriate beads.

  19. A space-time geostatistical framework for ensemble nowcasting using rainfall radar fields and gauge data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caseri, Angelica; Ramos, Maria Helena; Javelle, Pierre; Leblois, Etienne

    2016-04-01

    Floods are responsible for a major part of the total damage caused by natural disasters. Nowcasting systems providing public alerts to flash floods are very important to prevent damages from extreme events and reduce their socio-economic impacts. The major challenge of these systems is to capture high-risk situations in advance, with good accuracy in the intensity, location and timing of future intense precipitation events. Flash flood forecasting has been studied by several authors in different affected areas. The majority of the studies combines rain gauge data with radar imagery advection to improve prediction for the next few hours. Outputs of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models have also been increasingly used to predict ensembles of extreme precipitation events that might trigger flash floods. One of the challenges of the use of NWP for ensemble nowcasting is to successfully generate ensemble forecasts of precipitation in a short time calculation period to enable the production of flood forecasts with sufficient advance to issue flash flood alerts. In this study, we investigate an alternative space-time geostatistical framework to generate multiple scenarios of future rainfall for flash floods nowcasting. The approach is based on conditional simulation and an advection method applied within the Turning Bands Method (TBM). Ensemble forecasts of precipitation fields are generated based on space-time properties given by radar images and precipitation data collected from rain gauges during the development of the rainfall event. The results show that the approach developed can be an interesting alternative to capture precipitation uncertainties in location and intensity and generate ensemble forecasts of rainfall that can be useful to improve alerts for flash floods, especially in small areas.

  20. Spatial analysis of the distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and losses in maize crop productivity using geostatistics.

    PubMed

    Farias, Paulo R S; Barbosa, José C; Busoli, Antonio C; Overal, William L; Miranda, Vicente S; Ribeiro, Susane M

    2008-01-01

    The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), is one of the chief pests of maize in the Americas. The study of its spatial distribution is fundamental for designing correct control strategies, improving sampling methods, determining actual and potential crop losses, and adopting precise agricultural techniques. In São Paulo state, Brazil, a maize field was sampled at weekly intervals, from germination through harvest, for caterpillar densities, using quadrates. In each of 200 quadrates, 10 plants were sampled per week. Harvest weights were obtained in the field for each quadrate, and ear diameters and lengths were also sampled (15 ears per quadrate) and used to estimate potential productivity of the quadrate. Geostatistical analyses of caterpillar densities showed greatest ranges for small caterpillars when semivariograms were adjusted for a spherical model that showed greatest fit. As the caterpillars developed in the field, their spatial distribution became increasingly random, as shown by a model adjusted to a straight line, indicating a lack of spatial dependence among samples. Harvest weight and ear length followed the spherical model, indicating the existence of spatial variability of the production parameters in the maize field. Geostatistics shows promise for the application of precise methods in the integrated control of pests.

  1. SINGLE-SHELL TANK INTEGRITY PROJECT ANALYSIS OF RECORD-PRELIMINARY MODELING PLAN FOR THERMAL AND OPERATING LOADS

    SciTech Connect

    RAST RS; RINKER MW; BAPANAALLI SK; DEIBLER JE; GUZMAN-LEONG CE; JOHNSON KI; KARRI NK; PILLI SP; SANBORN SE

    2010-10-22

    This document is a Phase I deliverable for the Single-Shell Tank Analysis of Record effort. This document is not the Analysis of Record. The intent of this document is to guide the Phase II detailed modeling effort. Preliminary finite element models for each of the tank types were developed and different case studies were performed on one or more of these tank types. Case studies evaluated include thermal loading, waste level variation, the sensitivity of boundary effects (soil radial extent), excavation slope or run to rise ratio, soil stratigraphic (property and layer thickness) variation at different farm locations, and concrete material property variation and their degradation under thermal loads. The preliminary analysis document reviews and preliminary modeling analysis results are reported herein. In addition, this report provides recommendations for the next phase of the SST AOR project, SST detailed modeling. Efforts and results discussed in this report do not include seismic modeling as seismic modeling is covered by a separate report. The combined results of both static and seismic models are required to complete this effort. The SST AOR project supports the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of River Protection (ORP) mission for obtaining a better understanding of the structural integrity of Hanford's SSTs. The 149 SSTs, with six different geometries, have experienced a range of operating histories which would require a large number of unique analyses to fully characterize their individual structural integrity. Preliminary modeling evaluations were conducted to determine the number of analyses required for adequate bounding of each of the SST tank types in the Detailed Modeling Phase of the SST AOR Project. The preliminary modeling was conducted in conjunction with the Evaluation Criteria report, Johnson et al. (2010). Reviews of existing documents were conducted at the initial stage of preliminary modeling. These reviews guided the topics that were

  2. Video modelling interventions to teach spontaneous requesting using AAC devices to individuals with autism: a preliminary investigation.

    PubMed

    Banda, Devender R; Copple, Karen S; Koul, Rajinder K; Sancibrian, Sherry L; Bogschutz, Renee J

    2010-01-01

    This multiple baseline study investigated to what extent individuals with autism would learn to operate a speech generating device (SGD) to request a preferred object by observing a video model. The intervention consisted of each participant viewing a 10- to15-s video model that demonstrated the requesting of a preferred object using a SGD. Baseline, intervention and generalisation were all implemented within a public school, special education classroom. After viewing the video model, two participants displayed the ability to request preferred items using the SGD without prompting or cues. However, the participants did not generalise requesting using the SGD to a second preferred object. The study provides preliminary evidence that video modelling can be used to teach individuals with autism and severe cognitive disabilities requesting skills using an SGD.

  3. Nonlinear feature extraction and Bayesian mixture model approaches to target classification using MMW ISAR imagery: a preliminary study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Britton, Adrian; Copsey, Keith D.; Maskall, Guy T.; Webb, Andrew R.; West, Karl

    2000-07-01

    The problem we are addressing is one of generalization: given training data characterizing a set of targets (in specific configurations), how can we design a classifier that is robust to changes in target configuration and can generalize to other targets of the same generic class? The specific problem is identifying land vehicles from an inverse synthetic aperture radar image of the target. Issues in data modeling, experimental design and exploratory data analysis are discussed. Two complementary approaches are described: one that seeks to capture structure in the high- dimensional data space by projecting the data nonlinearly to a reduced dimensional feature space prior to classification; and a second that models the data in the data space using a Bayesian mixture model approach. Preliminary results for the mixture model approach are presented.

  4. Fish-Friendly Hydropower Turbine Development & Deployment: Alden Turbine Preliminary Engineering and Model Testing

    SciTech Connect

    Foust, J.; Hecker, G.; Li, S.; Allen, G.

    2011-10-01

    The Alden turbine was developed through the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) former Advanced Hydro Turbine Systems Program (1994-2006) and, more recently, through the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the DOE's Wind & Water Power Program. The primary goal of the engineering study described here was to provide a commercially competitive turbine design that would yield fish passage survival rates comparable to or better than the survival rates of bypassing or spilling flow. Although the turbine design was performed for site conditions corresponding to 92 ft (28 m) net head and a discharge of 1500 cfs (42.5 cms), the design can be modified for additional sites with differing operating conditions. During the turbine development, design modifications were identified for the spiral case, distributor (stay vanes and wicket gates), runner, and draft tube to improve turbine performance while maintaining features for high fish passage survival. Computational results for pressure change rates and shear within the runner passage were similar in the original and final turbine geometries, while predicted minimum pressures were higher for the final turbine. The final turbine geometry and resulting flow environments are expected to further enhance the fish passage characteristics of the turbine. Computational results for the final design were shown to improve turbine efficiencies by over 6% at the selected operating condition when compared to the original concept. Prior to the release of the hydraulic components for model fabrication, finite element analysis calculations were conducted for the stay vanes, wicket gates, and runner to verify that structural design criteria for stress and deflections were met. A physical model of the turbine was manufactured and tested with data collected for power and efficiency, cavitation limits, runaway speed, axial and radial thrust, pressure pulsations, and wicket gate torque. All parameters were observed to fall within ranges

  5. SRS 2010 Vegetation Inventory GeoStatistical Mapping Results for Custom Reaction Intensity and Total Dead Fuels.

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, Lloyd A.; Paresol, Bernard

    2014-09-01

    This report of the geostatistical analysis results of the fire fuels response variables, custom reaction intensity and total dead fuels is but a part of an SRS 2010 vegetation inventory project. For detailed description of project, theory and background including sample design, methods, and results please refer to USDA Forest Service Savannah River Site internal report “SRS 2010 Vegetation Inventory GeoStatistical Mapping Report”, (Edwards & Parresol 2013).

  6. A Preliminary Report on a New Measure: Internalization of the Model Minority Myth Measure (IM-4) and Its Psychological Correlates among Asian American College Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoo, Hyung Chol; Burrola, Kimberly S.; Steger, Michael F.

    2010-01-01

    This investigation is a preliminary report on a new measure of internalization of the model minority myth. In 3 studies, there was evidence for the validation of the 15-item Internalization of the Model Minority Myth Measure (IM-4), with 2 subscales. The Model Minority Myth of Achievement Orientation referred to the myth of Asian Americans'…

  7. Three-dimensional geostatistical inversion of flowmeter and pumping test data.

    PubMed

    Li, Wei; Englert, Andreas; Cirpka, Olaf A; Vereecken, Harry

    2008-01-01

    We jointly invert field data of flowmeter and multiple pumping tests in fully screened wells to estimate hydraulic conductivity using a geostatistical method. We use the steady-state drawdowns of pumping tests and the discharge profiles of flowmeter tests as our data in the inference. The discharge profiles need not be converted to absolute hydraulic conductivities. Consequently, we do not need measurements of depth-averaged hydraulic conductivity at well locations. The flowmeter profiles contain information about relative vertical distributions of hydraulic conductivity, while drawdown measurements of pumping tests provide information about horizontal fluctuation of the depth-averaged hydraulic conductivity. We apply the method to data obtained at the Krauthausen test site of the Forschungszentrum Jülich, Germany. The resulting estimate of our joint three-dimensional (3D) geostatistical inversion shows an improved 3D structure in comparison to the inversion of pumping test data only.

  8. Geochemical and geostatistical evaluation, Arkansas Canyon Planning Unit, Fremont and Custer Counties, Colorado

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Weiland, E.F.; Connors, R.A.; Robinson, M.L.; Lindemann, J.W.; Meyer, W.T.

    1982-01-01

    A mineral assessment of the Arkansas Canyon Planning Unit was undertaken by Barringer Resources Inc., under the terms of contract YA-553-CTO-100 with the Bureau of Land Management, Colorado State Office. The study was based on a geochemical-geostatistical survey in which 700 stream sediment samples were collected and analyzed for 25 elements. Geochemical results were interpreted by statistical processing which included factor, discriminant, multiple regression and characteristic analysis. The major deposit types evaluated were massive sulfide-base metal, sedimentary and magmatic uranium, thorium vein, magmatic segregation, and carbonatite related deposits. Results of the single element data and multivariate geostatistical analysis indicate that limited potential exists for base metal mineralization near the Horseshoe, El Plomo, and Green Mountain Mines. Thirty areas are considered to be anomalous with regard to one or more of the geochemical parameters evaluated during this study. The evaluation of carbonatite related mineralization was restricted due to the lack of geochemical data specific to this environment.

  9. Analysis of Large Scale Spatial Variability of Soil Moisture Using a Geostatistical Method

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-01-25

    consists of a heating element and thermocouple emplaced in epoxy in a hypodermic needle , which is encased in a porous ceramic matrix. This sensor is...Sensors 2010, 10, 913-932; doi:10.3390/s100100913 sensors ISSN 1424-8220 www.mdpi.com/journal/sensors Article Analysis of Large Scale Spatial...in calibration and validation of large-scale satellite based data assimilation systems. Spatial analysis using geostatistical approaches was used to

  10. Use of geostatistics to determine the spatial distribution and infestation rate of leaf-cutting ant nests (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in eucalyptus plantations.

    PubMed

    Lasmar, O; Zanetti, R; dos Santos, A; Fernandes, B V

    2012-08-01

    One of the fundamental steps in pest sampling is the assessment of the population distribution in the field. Several studies have investigated the distribution and appropriate sampling methods for leaf-cutting ants; however, more reliable methods are still required, such as those that use geostatistics. The objective of this study was to determine the spatial distribution and infestation rate of leaf-cutting ant nests in eucalyptus plantations by using geostatistics. The study was carried out in 2008 in two eucalyptus stands in Paraopeba, Minas Gerais, Brazil. All of the nests in the studied area were located and used for the generation of GIS maps, and the spatial pattern of distribution was determined considering the number and size of nests. Each analysis and map was made using the R statistics program and the geoR package. The nest spatial distribution in a savanna area of Minas Gerais was clustered to a certain extent. The models generated allowed the production of kriging maps of areas infested with leaf-cutting ants, where chemical intervention would be necessary, reducing the control costs, impact on humans, and the environment.

  11. Accuracy and uncertainty analysis of soil Bbf spatial distribution estimation at a coking plant-contaminated site based on normalization geostatistical technologies.

    PubMed

    Liu, Geng; Niu, Junjie; Zhang, Chao; Guo, Guanlin

    2015-12-01

    Data distribution is usually skewed severely by the presence of hot spots in contaminated sites. This causes difficulties for accurate geostatistical data transformation. Three types of typical normal distribution transformation methods termed the normal score, Johnson, and Box-Cox transformations were applied to compare the effects of spatial interpolation with normal distribution transformation data of benzo(b)fluoranthene in a large-scale coking plant-contaminated site in north China. Three normal transformation methods decreased the skewness and kurtosis of the benzo(b)fluoranthene, and all the transformed data passed the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test threshold. Cross validation showed that Johnson ordinary kriging has a minimum root-mean-square error of 1.17 and a mean error of 0.19, which was more accurate than the other two models. The area with fewer sampling points and that with high levels of contamination showed the largest prediction standard errors based on the Johnson ordinary kriging prediction map. We introduce an ideal normal transformation method prior to geostatistical estimation for severely skewed data, which enhances the reliability of risk estimation and improves the accuracy for determination of remediation boundaries.

  12. Integration of GIS, Geostatistics, and 3-D Technology to Assess the Spatial Distribution of Soil Moisture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Betts, M.; Tsegaye, T.; Tadesse, W.; Coleman, T. L.; Fahsi, A.

    1998-01-01

    The spatial and temporal distribution of near surface soil moisture is of fundamental importance to many physical, biological, biogeochemical, and hydrological processes. However, knowledge of these space-time dynamics and the processes which control them remains unclear. The integration of geographic information systems (GIS) and geostatistics together promise a simple mechanism to evaluate and display the spatial and temporal distribution of this vital hydrologic and physical variable. Therefore, this research demonstrates the use of geostatistics and GIS to predict and display soil moisture distribution under vegetated and non-vegetated plots. The research was conducted at the Winfred Thomas Agricultural Experiment Station (WTAES), Hazel Green, Alabama. Soil moisture measurement were done on a 10 by 10 m grid from tall fescue grass (GR), alfalfa (AA), bare rough (BR), and bare smooth (BS) plots. Results indicated that variance associated with soil moisture was higher for vegetated plots than non-vegetated plots. The presence of vegetation in general contributed to the spatial variability of soil moisture. Integration of geostatistics and GIS can improve the productivity of farm lands and the precision of farming.

  13. Geostatistical estimation of signal-to-noise ratios for spectral vegetation indices

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ji, Lei; Zhang, Li; Rover, Jennifer R.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Chen, Xuexia

    2014-01-01

    In the past 40 years, many spectral vegetation indices have been developed to quantify vegetation biophysical parameters. An ideal vegetation index should contain the maximum level of signal related to specific biophysical characteristics and the minimum level of noise such as background soil influences and atmospheric effects. However, accurate quantification of signal and noise in a vegetation index remains a challenge, because it requires a large number of field measurements or laboratory experiments. In this study, we applied a geostatistical method to estimate signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) for spectral vegetation indices. Based on the sample semivariogram of vegetation index images, we used the standardized noise to quantify the noise component of vegetation indices. In a case study in the grasslands and shrublands of the western United States, we demonstrated the geostatistical method for evaluating S/N for a series of soil-adjusted vegetation indices derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. The soil-adjusted vegetation indices were found to have higher S/N values than the traditional normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and simple ratio (SR) in the sparsely vegetated areas. This study shows that the proposed geostatistical analysis can constitute an efficient technique for estimating signal and noise components in vegetation indices.

  14. Geostatistical estimation of signal-to-noise ratios for spectral vegetation indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, Lei; Zhang, Li; Rover, Jennifer; Wylie, Bruce K.; Chen, Xuexia

    2014-10-01

    In the past 40 years, many spectral vegetation indices have been developed to quantify vegetation biophysical parameters. An ideal vegetation index should contain the maximum level of signal related to specific biophysical characteristics and the minimum level of noise such as background soil influences and atmospheric effects. However, accurate quantification of signal and noise in a vegetation index remains a challenge, because it requires a large number of field measurements or laboratory experiments. In this study, we applied a geostatistical method to estimate signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) for spectral vegetation indices. Based on the sample semivariogram of vegetation index images, we used the standardized noise to quantify the noise component of vegetation indices. In a case study in the grasslands and shrublands of the western United States, we demonstrated the geostatistical method for evaluating S/N for a series of soil-adjusted vegetation indices derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. The soil-adjusted vegetation indices were found to have higher S/N values than the traditional normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and simple ratio (SR) in the sparsely vegetated areas. This study shows that the proposed geostatistical analysis can constitute an efficient technique for estimating signal and noise components in vegetation indices.

  15. Preliminary physiologically based pharmacokinetic models for benzo[a]pyrene and dibenzo[def,p]chrysene in rodents

    SciTech Connect

    Crowell, Susan Ritger; Amin, Shantu G.; Anderson, Kim A.; Krishnegowda, Gowdahalli; Sharma, Arun K.; Soelberg, Jolen J.; Williams, David E.; Corley, Richard A.

    2011-12-15

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous environmental contaminants generated as byproducts of natural and anthropogenic combustion processes. Despite significant public health concern, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling efforts for PAHs have so far been limited to naphthalene, plus simpler PK models for pyrene, nitropyrene, and benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P). The dearth of published models is due in part to the high lipophilicity, low volatility, and myriad metabolic pathways for PAHs, all of which present analytical and experimental challenges. Our research efforts have focused upon experimental approaches and initial development of PBPK models for the prototypic PAH, B[a]P, and the more potent, albeit less studied transplacental carcinogen, dibenzo[def,p]chrysene (DBC). For both compounds, model compartments included arterial and venous blood, flow limited lung, liver, richly perfused and poorly perfused tissues, diffusion limited fat, and a two compartment theoretical gut (for oral exposures). Hepatic and pulmonary metabolism was described for both compounds, as were fractional binding in blood and fecal clearance. Partition coefficients for parent PAH along with their diol and tetraol metabolites were estimated using published algorithms and verified experimentally for the hydroxylated metabolites. The preliminary PBPK models were able to describe many, but not all, of the available data sets, comprising multiple routes of exposure (oral, intravenous) and nominal doses spanning several orders of magnitude. Supported by Award Number P42 ES016465 from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. -- Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present PBPK models for benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) and dibenzo[def,p]chrysene (DBC). Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer B[a]P model accurately predicts data from multiple sources over a wide dose range. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer DBC model was based on the B[a]P model as less chemical specific

  16. Preliminary Goddard geopotential using optical tracking data and a comparison with SAO models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lerch, F. J.; Wagner, C. A.; Putney, B. H.; Nickerson, K. G.

    1971-01-01

    A preliminary Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) geopotential and center of mass station coordinate solution was obtained from satellite orbital data using numerical integration theory. This geodetic solution is a prelude to a more general solution which will combine the 1971 International Satellite Geodesy Experiment (ISAGEX) laser data with the present data being employed. The present GSFC geopotential solution consists of the spherical harmonic coefficients through degree and order eight with higher order satellite resonant coefficients. The solution represents a first iteration result from 17 satellites with approximately 150 weekly orbital arcs containing some 40,000 optical observations. The GSFC preliminary result is compared with final results from the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO) solutions including the 1969 SAO Standard Earth II solution. One aspect of interest for the comparison is that SAO uses an analytic theory for the orbital solution whereas GSFC uses a numerical integration theory. The comparison of geopotential results shows that good agreement exists in general but that there are some areas of minor differences.

  17. Geostatistical Characteristic of Space -Time Variation in Underground Water Selected Quality Parameters in Klodzko Water Intake Area (SW Part of Poland)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Namysłowska-Wilczyńska, Barbara

    2016-04-01

    This paper presents selected results of research connected with the development of a (3D) geostatistical hydrogeochemical model of the Klodzko Drainage Basin, dedicated to the spatial and time variation in the selected quality parameters of underground water in the Klodzko water intake area (SW part of Poland). The research covers the period 2011÷2012. Spatial analyses of the variation in various quality parameters, i.e, contents of: ammonium ion [gNH4+/m3], NO3- (nitrate ion) [gNO3/m3], PO4-3 (phosphate ion) [gPO4-3/m3], total organic carbon C (TOC) [gC/m3], pH redox potential and temperature C [degrees], were carried out on the basis of the chemical determinations of the quality parameters of underground water samples taken from the wells in the water intake area. Spatial and time variation in the quality parameters was analyzed on the basis of archival data (period 1977÷1999) for 22 (pump and siphon) wells with a depth ranging from 9.5 to 38.0 m b.g.l., later data obtained (November 2011) from tests of water taken from 14 existing wells. The wells were built in the years 1954÷1998. The water abstraction depth (difference between the terrain elevation and the dynamic water table level) is ranged from 276÷286 m a.s.l., with an average of 282.05 m a.s.l. Dynamic water table level is contained between 6.22 m÷16.44 m b.g.l., with a mean value of 9.64 m b.g.l. The latest data (January 2012) acquired from 3 new piezometers, with a depth of 9÷10m, which were made in other locations in the relevant area. Thematic databases, containing original data on coordinates X, Y (latitude, longitude) and Z (terrain elevation and time - years) and on regionalized variables, i.e. the underground water quality parameters in the Klodzko water intake area determined for different analytical configurations (22 wells, 14 wells, 14 wells + 3 piezometers), were created. Both archival data (acquired in the years 1977÷1999) and the latest data (collected in 2011÷2012) were analyzed

  18. A model of preliminary breakdown pulse peak currents and their relation to the observed electric field pulses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kašpar, Petr; Santolík, Ondřej; Kolmašová, Ivana; Farges, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Preliminary breakdown pulses (PBPs) occur in the initial phase of lightning. A realistic model for their description is employed to investigate relation between PBP peak currents and PBP electric field amplitudes and their relation to the return stroke (RS) peak currents. We demonstrate that the PBP peak currents can reach 200 kA and can be comparable or higher than the corresponding RS peak currents. For a typical PBP electric field waveform PBP peak currents are approximately proportional to the electric field amplitudes. We show that the PBP bipolar overshoot depends primarily on the characteristic time of the line conductivity increase. The magnitude of the charge centers is demonstrated to be very large in order to model the observed PBPs with amplitudes up to 32 V/m at 100 km. Such energetic current pulses might be capable to produce elves or terrestrial gamma ray flashes.

  19. Understanding the Health Behaviors of Survivors of Childhood and Young-Adult Cancer: Preliminary Analysis and Model Development

    PubMed Central

    Vuotto, Stefanie C.; Procidano, Mary E.; Annunziato, Rachel A.

    2015-01-01

    The current study presents preliminary correlational data used to develop a model depicting the psychosocial pathways that lead to the health behaviors of survivors of childhood and young-adult cancer. Data collected from a sample of 18- to 30-year-old cancer survivors (n = 125) was used to examine the relations among interpersonal support and nonsupport, personal agency, avoidance, depressive symptoms and self-efficacy as they related to health behaviors. The outcome measures examined included tobacco and alcohol use, diet, exercise, sunscreen use, medication compliance and follow-up/screening practices. Correlational analyses revealed a number of significant associations among variables. Results are used to inform the development of a health behavior model. Implications for health promotion and survivorship programming are discussed, as well as directions for future research. PMID:27417357

  20. Impacts of cool cities on air quality: A preliminary modeling assessment for Nashville TN, Dallas TX and Atlanta GA

    SciTech Connect

    Taha, Haider

    1998-06-15

    Previous atmospheric modeling efforts that concentrated on the Los Angeles Basin suggested beneficial and significant air quality impacts from cool cities strategies. This paper discusses an extension of similar modeling efforts to three regions, Atlanta GA, Dallas - Ft. Worth TX, and Nashville TN, that experience smog and air quality problems. According to the older ozone air quality standard (120 ppb), these regions were classified as serious, moderate, and marginal, respectively, but may be out of compliance with respect to the newer, 80-ppb/8-hours standard. Results from this exploratory modeling work suggest a range of possible impacts on meteorological and air quality conditions. For example, peak ozone concentrations during each region's respective episode could be decreased by 1-6 ppb (conservative and optimistic scenarios, respectively) in Nashville, 5-15 ppb in Dallas - Fort Worth, and 5-12 ppb in Atlanta following implementation of cool cities. The reductions are generally smaller than those obtained from simulating the Los Angeles Basin but are still significant. In all regions, the simulations suggest, the net, domain-wide effects of cool cities are reductions in ozone mass and improvements in air quality. In Atlanta, Nashville, and Dallas, urban areas benefiting from reduced smog reach up to 8460, 7350, and 12870 km{sup 2} in area, respectively. Results presented in this paper should be taken as exploratory and preliminary. These will most likely change during a more comprehensive modeling study to be started soon with the support of the US Environmental Protection Agency. The main purpose of the present project was to obtain the initial data (emission inventories) for these regions, simulate meteorological conditions, and perform preliminary sensitivity analysis. In the future, additional regions will be simulated to assess the potential of cool cities in improving urban air quality.

  1. Potential impacts of climate change on tropospheric ozone in California: a preliminary episodic modeling assessment of the Los Angeles basin and the Sacramento valley

    SciTech Connect

    Taha, Haider

    2001-01-01

    In this preliminary and relatively short modeling effort, an initial assessment is made for the potential air quality implications of climate change in California. The focus is mainly on the effects of changes in temperature and related meteorological and emission factors on ozone formation. Photochemical modeling is performed for two areas in the state: the Los Angeles Basin and the Sacramento Valley.

  2. Development of a preliminary relative risk model for evaluating regional ecological conditions in the Delaware River Estuary, USA.

    PubMed

    Iannuzzi, Timothy J; Durda, Judi L; Preziosi, Damian V; Ludwig, David F; Stahl, Ralph G; DeSantis, Amanda A; Hoke, Robert A

    2010-01-01

    Effective environmental management and restoration of urbanized systems such as the Delaware River Estuary requires a holistic understanding of the relative importance of various stressor-related impacts throughout the watershed, both historical and ongoing. To that end, it is important to involve as many stakeholders as possible in the management process and to develop a system for sharing of scientific data and information, as well as effective technical tools for evaluating and disseminating the data needed to make management decisions. In this study, we describe a preliminary assessment that was undertaken to evaluate the relative risks for the variety of stressors currently operating within the Delaware Estuary using a relative risk model (RRM) framework. This model was constructed using existing data and information on the ecological conditions and stressors in the main-stem Delaware River below the head of tide at Trenton, New Jersey, USA. A large database was developed with pertinent data from a variety of library, scientific, and regulatory sources. Data were compiled, reviewed, and characterized before development of the Estuary-specific RRM. Our primary goals and objectives in developing this preliminary RRM for the Estuary were to 1) determine if the RRM framework can be adapted to a large complex estuarine system such as the Delaware River, 2) identify the issues associated with adapting the model framework to the various management issues and regional areas/habitats of the River, 3) help identify data needs and potential refinements that might be needed to more specifically quantify relative stressor risks in various areas and habitats of the Estuary to better inform future management goals/actions by Stakeholders. The key conclusions of our preliminary assessment are 1) a diverse suite of stressors is likely affecting the ecological conditions of the Delaware Estuary, 2) chemical (toxicants/contaminants) and physical (sedimentation, habitat loss

  3. Hierarchical probabilistic regionalization of volcanism for Sengan region in Japan using multivariate statistical techniques and geostatistical interpolation techniques

    SciTech Connect

    Park, Jinyong; Balasingham, P; McKenna, Sean Andrew; Pinnaduwa H.S.W. Kulatilake

    2004-09-01

    Sandia National Laboratories, under contract to Nuclear Waste Management Organization of Japan (NUMO), is performing research on regional classification of given sites in Japan with respect to potential volcanic disruption using multivariate statistics and geo-statistical interpolation techniques. This report provides results obtained for hierarchical probabilistic regionalization of volcanism for the Sengan region in Japan by applying multivariate statistical techniques and geostatistical interpolation techniques on the geologic data provided by NUMO. A workshop report produced in September 2003 by Sandia National Laboratories (Arnold et al., 2003) on volcanism lists a set of most important geologic variables as well as some secondary information related to volcanism. Geologic data extracted for the Sengan region in Japan from the data provided by NUMO revealed that data are not available at the same locations for all the important geologic variables. In other words, the geologic variable vectors were found to be incomplete spatially. However, it is necessary to have complete geologic variable vectors to perform multivariate statistical analyses. As a first step towards constructing complete geologic variable vectors, the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) zone 54 projected coordinate system and a 1 km square regular grid system were selected. The data available for each geologic variable on a geographic coordinate system were transferred to the aforementioned grid system. Also the recorded data on volcanic activity for Sengan region were produced on the same grid system. Each geologic variable map was compared with the recorded volcanic activity map to determine the geologic variables that are most important for volcanism. In the regionalized classification procedure, this step is known as the variable selection step. The following variables were determined as most important for volcanism: geothermal gradient, groundwater temperature, heat discharge, groundwater

  4. Preliminary Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.1

    EPA Science Inventory

    The AMAD will perform two annual CMAQ model simulations, one with the current publically available version of the CMAQ model (v5.0.2) and the other with the beta version of the new model (v5.1). The results of each model simulation will then be compared to observations and the pe...

  5. Preliminary groundwater flow model of the basin-fill aquifers in Detrital, Hualapai, and Sacramento Valleys, Mohave County, northwestern Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tillman, Fred D; Garner, Bradley D.; Truini, Margot

    2013-01-01

    Preliminary numerical models were developed to simulate groundwater flow in the basin-fill alluvium in Detrital, Hualapai, and Sacramento Valleys in northwestern Arizona. The purpose of this exercise was to gather and evaluate available information and data, to test natural‑recharge concepts, and to indicate directions for improving future regional groundwater models of the study area. Both steady-state and transient models were developed with a single layer incorporating vertically averaged hydraulic properties over the model layer. Boundary conditions for the models were constant-head cells along the northern and western edges of the study area, corresponding to the location of the Colorado River, and no-flow boundaries along the bedrock ridges that bound the rest of the study area, except for specified flow where Truxton Wash enters the southern end of Hualapai Valley. Steady-state conditions were simulated for the pre-1935 period, before the construction of Hoover Dam in the northwestern part of the model area. Two recharge scenarios were investigated using the steady-state model—one in which natural aquifer recharge occurs directly in places where water is available from precipitation, and another in which natural aquifer recharge from precipitation occurs in the basin-fill alluvium that drains areas of available water. A transient model with 31 stress periods was constructed to simulate groundwater flow for the period 1935–2010. The transient model incorporates changing Colorado River, Lake Mead, and Lake Mohave water levels and includes time-varying groundwater withdrawals and aquifer recharge. Both the steady-state and transient models were calibrated to available water-level observations in basin-fill alluvium, and simulations approximate observed water-level trends throughout most of the study area.

  6. [Spatial variability of soil nutrients based on geostatistics combined with GIS--a case study in Zunghua City of Hebei Province].

    PubMed

    Guo, X; Fu, B; Ma, K; Chen, L

    2000-08-01

    Geostatistics combined with GIS was applied to analyze the spatial variability of soil nutrients in topsoil (0-20 cm) in Zunghua City of Hebei Province. GIS can integrate attribute data with geographical data of system variables, which makes the application of geostatistics technique for large spatial scale more convenient. Soil nutrient data in this study included available N (alkaline hydrolyzing nitrogen), total N, available K, available P and organic matter. The results showed that the semivariograms of soil nutrients were best described by spherical model, except for that of available K, which was best fitted by complex structure of exponential model and linear with sill model. The spatial variability of available K was mainly produced by structural factor, while that of available N, total N, available P and organic matter was primarily caused by random factor. However, their spatial heterogeneity degree was different: the degree of total N and organic matter was higher, and that of available P and available N was lower. The results also indicated that the spatial correlation of the five tested soil nutrients at this large scale was moderately dependent. The ranges of available N and available P were almost same, which were 5 km and 5.5 km, respectively. The range of total N was up to 18 km, and that of organic matter was 8.5 km. For available K, the spatial variability scale primarily expressed exponential model between 0-3.5 km, but linear with sill model between 3.5-25.5 km. In addition, five soil nutrients exhibited different isotropic ranges. Available N and available P were isotropic through the whole research range (0-28 km). The isotropic range of available K was 0-8 km, and that of total N and organic matter was 0-10 km.

  7. Linking Tectonics and Surface Processes through SNAC-CHILD Coupling: Preliminary Results Towards Interoperable Modeling Frameworks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, E.; Kelbert, A.; Peckham, S. D.

    2014-12-01

    We demonstrate that code coupling can be an efficient and flexible method for modeling complicated two-way interactions between tectonic and surface processes with SNAC-CHILD coupling as an example. SNAC is a deep earth process model (a geodynamic/tectonics model), built upon a scientific software framework called StGermain and also compatible with a model coupling framework called Pyre. CHILD is a popular surface process model (a landscape evolution model), interfaced to the CSDMS (Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System) modeling framework. We first present proof-of-concept but non-trivial results from a simplistic coupling scheme. We then report progress towards augmenting SNAC with a Basic Model Interface (BMI), a framework-agnostic standard interface developed by CSDMS that uses the CSDMS Standard Names as controlled vocabulary for model communication across domains. Newly interfaced to BMI, SNAC will be easily coupled with CHILD as well as other BMI-compatible models. In broader context, this work will test BMI as a general and easy-to-implement mechanism for sharing models between modeling frameworks and is a part of the NSF-funded EarthCube Building Blocks project, "Earth System Bridge: Spanning Scientific Communities with Interoperable Modeling Frameworks."

  8. Percutaneous Irreversible Electroporation Lung Ablation: Preliminary Results in a Porcine Model

    SciTech Connect

    Deodhar, Ajita; Monette, Sebastien; Single, Gordon W.; Hamilton, William C.; Thornton, Raymond H.; Sofocleous, Constantinos T.; Maybody, Majid; Solomon, Stephen B.

    2011-12-15

    Objective: Irreversible electroporation (IRE) uses direct electrical pulses to create permanent 'pores' in cell membranes to cause cell death. In contrast to conventional modalities, IRE has a nonthermal mechanism of action. Our objective was to study the histopathological and imaging features of IRE in normal swine lung. Materials and Methods: Eleven female swine were studied for hyperacute (8 h), acute (24 h), subacute (96 h), and chronic (3 week) effects of IRE ablation in lung. Paired unipolar IRE applicators were placed under computed tomography (CT) guidance. Some applicators were deliberately positioned near bronchovascular structures. IRE pulse delivery was synchronized with the cardiac rhythm only when ablation was performed within 2 cm of the heart. Contrast-enhanced CT scan was performed immediately before and after IRE and at 1 and 3 weeks after IRE ablation. Representative tissue was stained with hematoxylin and eosin for histopathology. Results: Twenty-five ablations were created: ten hyperacute, four acute, and three subacute ablations showed alveolar edema and necrosis with necrosis of bronchial, bronchiolar, and vascular epithelium. Bronchovascular architecture was maintained. Chronic ablations showed bronchiolitis obliterans and alveolar interstitial fibrosis. Immediate post-procedure CT images showed linear or patchy density along the applicator tract. At 1 week, there was consolidation that resolved partially or completely by 3 weeks. Pneumothorax requiring chest tube developed in two animals; no significant cardiac arrhythmias were noted. Conclusion: Our preliminary porcine study demonstrates the nonthermal and extracellular matrix sparing mechanism of action of IRE. IRE is a potential alternative to thermal ablative modalities.

  9. Preliminary simulation of a M6.5 earthquake on the Seattle Fault using 3D finite-difference modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stephenson, William J.; Frankel, Arthur D.

    2000-01-01

    A three-dimensional finite-difference simulation of a moderate-sized (M 6.5) thrust-faulting earthquake on the Seattle fault demonstrates the effects of the Seattle Basin on strong ground motion in the Puget lowland. The model area includes the cities of Seattle, Bremerton and Bellevue. We use a recently developed detailed 3D-velocity model of the Seattle Basin in these simulations. The model extended to 20-km depth and assumed rupture on a finite fault with random slip distribution. Preliminary results from simulations of frequencies 0.5 Hz and lower suggest amplification can occur at the surface of the Seattle Basin by the trapping of energy in the Quaternary sediments. Surface waves generated within the basin appear to contribute to amplification throughout the modeled region. Several factors apparently contribute to large ground motions in downtown Seattle: (1) radiation pattern and directivity from the rupture; (2) amplification and energy trapping within the Quaternary sediments; and (3) basin geometry and variation in depth of both Quaternary and Tertiary sediments

  10. Estimating the volume and age of water stored in global lakes using a geo-statistical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Messager, Mathis Loïc; Lehner, Bernhard; Grill, Günther; Nedeva, Irena; Schmitt, Oliver

    2016-12-01

    Lakes are key components of biogeochemical and ecological processes, thus knowledge about their distribution, volume and residence time is crucial in understanding their properties and interactions within the Earth system. However, global information is scarce and inconsistent across spatial scales and regions. Here we develop a geo-statistical model to estimate the volume of global lakes with a surface area of at least 10 ha based on the surrounding terrain information. Our spatially resolved database shows 1.42 million individual polygons of natural lakes with a total surface area of 2.67 × 106 km2 (1.8% of global land area), a total shoreline length of 7.2 × 106 km (about four times longer than the world's ocean coastline) and a total volume of 181.9 × 103 km3 (0.8% of total global non-frozen terrestrial water stocks). We also compute mean and median hydraulic residence times for all lakes to be 1,834 days and 456 days, respectively.

  11. Geostatistics and Geographic Information Systems to Study the Spatial Distribution of Grapholita molesta (Busck) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in Peach Fields.

    PubMed

    Duarte, F; Calvo, M V; Borges, A; Scatoni, I B

    2015-08-01

    The oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta (Busck), is the most serious pest in peach, and several insecticide applications are required to reduce crop damage to acceptable levels. Geostatistics and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are employed to measure the range of spatial correlation of G. molesta in order to define the optimum sampling distance for performing spatial analysis and to determine the current distribution of the pest in peach orchards of southern Uruguay. From 2007 to 2010, 135 pheromone traps per season were installed and georeferenced in peach orchards distributed over 50,000 ha. Male adult captures were recorded weekly from September to April. Structural analysis of the captures was performed, yielding 14 semivariograms for the accumulated captures analyzed by generation and growing season. Two sets of maps were constructed to describe the pest distribution. Nine significant models were obtained in the 14 evaluated periods. The range estimated for the correlation was from 908 to 6884 m. Three hot spots of high population level and some areas with comparatively low populations were constant over the 3-year period, while there is a greater variation in the size of the population in different generations and years in other areas.

  12. Estimating the volume and age of water stored in global lakes using a geo-statistical approach.

    PubMed

    Messager, Mathis Loïc; Lehner, Bernhard; Grill, Günther; Nedeva, Irena; Schmitt, Oliver

    2016-12-15

    Lakes are key components of biogeochemical and ecological processes, thus knowledge about their distribution, volume and residence time is crucial in understanding their properties and interactions within the Earth system. However, global information is scarce and inconsistent across spatial scales and regions. Here we develop a geo-statistical model to estimate the volume of global lakes with a surface area of at least 10 ha based on the surrounding terrain information. Our spatially resolved database shows 1.42 million individual polygons of natural lakes with a total surface area of 2.67 × 10(6) km(2) (1.8% of global land area), a total shoreline length of 7.2 × 10(6) km (about four times longer than the world's ocean coastline) and a total volume of 181.9 × 10(3) km(3) (0.8% of total global non-frozen terrestrial water stocks). We also compute mean and median hydraulic residence times for all lakes to be 1,834 days and 456 days, respectively.

  13. Estimating the volume and age of water stored in global lakes using a geo-statistical approach

    PubMed Central

    Messager, Mathis Loïc; Lehner, Bernhard; Grill, Günther; Nedeva, Irena; Schmitt, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Lakes are key components of biogeochemical and ecological processes, thus knowledge about their distribution, volume and residence time is crucial in understanding their properties and interactions within the Earth system. However, global information is scarce and inconsistent across spatial scales and regions. Here we develop a geo-statistical model to estimate the volume of global lakes with a surface area of at least 10 ha based on the surrounding terrain information. Our spatially resolved database shows 1.42 million individual polygons of natural lakes with a total surface area of 2.67 × 106 km2 (1.8% of global land area), a total shoreline length of 7.2 × 106 km (about four times longer than the world's ocean coastline) and a total volume of 181.9 × 103 km3 (0.8% of total global non-frozen terrestrial water stocks). We also compute mean and median hydraulic residence times for all lakes to be 1,834 days and 456 days, respectively. PMID:27976671

  14. A novel geotechnical/geostatistical approach for exploration and production of natural gas from multiple geologic strata, Phase 1

    SciTech Connect

    Overbey, W.K. Jr.; Reeves, T.K.; Salamy, S.P.; Locke, C.D.; Johnson, H.R.; Brunk, R.; Hawkins, L. )

    1991-05-01

    This research program has been designed to develop and verify a unique geostatistical approach for finding natural gas resources. The research has been conducted by Beckley College, Inc. (Beckley) and BDM Engineering Services Company (BDMESC) under contract to the US Department of Energy (DOE), Morgantown Energy Technology Center. Phase 1 of the project consisted of compiling and analyzing relevant geological and gas production information in selected areas of Raleigh County, West Virginia, ultimately narrowed to the Eccles, West Virginia, 7 {1/2} minute Quadrangle. The Phase 1 analysis identified key parameters contributing to the accumulation and production of natural gas in Raleigh County, developed analog models relating geological factors to gas production, and identified specific sites to test and verify the analysis methodologies by drilling. Based on the Phase 1 analysis, five sites have been identified with high potential for economic gas production. Phase 2 will consist of drilling, completing, and producing one or more wells at the sites identified in the Phase 1 analyses. The initial well is schedules to the drilled in April 1991. This report summarizes the results of the Phase 1 investigations. For clarity, the report has been prepared in two volumes. Volume 1 presents the Phase 1 overview; Volume 2 contains the detailed geological and production information collected and analyzed for this study.

  15. Predictive models applied to groundwater level forecasting: a preliminary experience on the alluvial aquifer of the Magra River (Italy).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brozzo, Gianpiero; Doveri, Marco; Lelli, Matteo; Scozzari, Andrea

    2010-05-01

    Computer-based decision support systems are getting a growing interest for water managing authorities and water distribution companies. This work discusses a preliminary experience in the application of computational intelligence in a hydrological modeling framework, regarding the study area of the alluvial aquifer of the Magra River (Italy). Two sites in the studied area, corresponding to two distinct groups of wells (Battifollo and Fornola) are managed by the local drinkable water distribution company (ACAM Acque), which serves the area of La Spezia, on the Ligurian coast. Battifollo has 9 wells with a total extraction rate of about 240 liters per second, while Fornola has 44 wells with an extraction rate of about 900 liters per second. Objective of this work is to make use of time series coming from long-term monitoring activities in order to assess the trend of the groundwater level with respect to a set of environmental and exploitation parameters; this is accomplished by the experimentation of a suitable model, eligible to be used as a predictor. This activity moves on from the modeling of the system behavior, based on a set of Input/Output data, in order to characterize it without necessarily a prior knowledge of any deterministic mechanism (system identification). In this context, data series collected by continuous hydrological monitoring instrumentation installed in the studied sites, together with meteorological and water extraction data, have been analyzed in order to assess the applicability and performance of a predictive model of the groundwater level. A mixed approach (both data driven and process-based) has been experimented on the whole dataset relating to the last ten years of continuous monitoring activity. The system identification approach presented here is based on the integration of an adaptive technique based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and a blind deterministic identification approach. According to this concept, the behavior of

  16. A Probabilistic Model for the Distribution of Authorships: A Preliminary Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ajiferuke, Isola

    The purpose of this study was to develop a model for the distribution of authorships--based on the initial hypothesis that the distribution of authorships follows a shifted Waring distribution--and to test the derived model and some other discrete probability models for goodness-of-fit against empirical data. Bibliographic data from 15 abstracting…

  17. Toward modeling of radio-frequency ablation lesions for image-guided left atrial fibrillation therapy: model formulation and preliminary evaluation.

    PubMed

    Linte, Cristian A; Camp, Jon J; Holmes, David R; Rettmann, Maryam E; Packer, Douglas L; Robb, Richard A

    2013-01-01

    In the context of image-guided left atrial fibrillation therapy, relatively very little work has been done to consider the changes that occur in the tissue during ablation in order to monitor therapy delivery. Here we describe a technique to predict the lesion progression and monitor the radio-frequency energy delivery via a thermal ablation model that uses heat transfer principles to estimate the tissue temperature distribution and resulting lesion. A preliminary evaluation of the model was conducted in ex vivo skeletal beef muscle tissue while emulating a clinically relevant tissue ablation protocol. The predicted temperature distribution within the tissue was assessed against that measured directly using fiberoptic temperature probes and showed agreement within 5°C between the model-predicted and experimentally measured tissue temperatures at prescribed locations. We believe this technique is capable of providing reasonably accurate representations of the tissue response to radio-frequency energy delivery.

  18. Preliminary ice shelf-ocean simulation results from idealized standalone-ocean and coupled model intercomparison projects (MIPs)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asay-Davis, Xylar; Martin, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    The second Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP (ISOMIP+) and the first Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean MIP (MISOMIP1) prescribe a set of idealized experiments for ocean models with ice-shelf cavities and coupled ice sheet-ocean models, respectively. ISOMIP+ and MISOMIP1 were designed together with the third Marine Ice Sheet MIP (MISMIP+) with three main goals, namely that the MIPs should provide: a controlled forum for researchers to compare their model results with those from other models during model development. a path for testing components in the process of developing coupled ice sheet-ocean models. a basic setup from which a large variety of parameter and process studies can usefully be performed. The experimental design for the three MIPs is currently under review in Geoscientific Model Development (Asay-Davis et al. 2015, doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-9859-2015). We present preliminary results from ISOMIP+ and MISOMIP1 experiments using several ocean-only and coupled ice sheet-ocean models. Among ocean models, we show that differences in model behavior are significant enough that similar results can only be achieved by tuning model parameters (e.g. boundary-layer transfer coefficients, drag coefficients, vertical mixing parameterizations) for each models. This tuning is constrained by a desired mean melt rate in quasi-steady state under specified forcing conditions, akin to how models would be tuned based on observations for non-idealized simulations. We also present a number of parameter studies based the MIP experiments. Again, using several models, we show that melt rates respond sub-linearly to both changes in the square root of the drag coefficient and the heat-transfer coefficient, and that melting is relatively insensitive to horizontal-mixing coefficients (perhaps because the resolution is sufficient to permit eddies) but more sensitive to vertical-mixing coefficients. We show that the choice of the equation of state (linear or nonlinear) does not have a significant impact as long as

  19. Idealized Land-sea Warming Contrast Experiments with Two Global Circulation Models: Preliminary results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, J. E. E.; Lee, J. L.; Hong, S. Y.

    2014-12-01

    Simulations of warming climates with climate models have pointed out that land surface temperatures will increase more rapidly than sea surface temperature (SST), which is known as the "land-sea warming contrast". We investigate the response of a zonally symmetric atmosphere to robust land-sea surface warming contrast using two global circulation models (GCMs): Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Model (NIM) and Global and Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs). NIM is a Finite-volume icosahedral model developed as a next-generation operational model at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA ESRL). Full model physics were taken from Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) physics suite. GRIMs is a spectral model which has been developed in Korea (Hong et al., 2013, APJAS). It has flexibility for selection of comparable physics options with NIM. Two sets of experiments are designed: one is the control experiment with zonally-symmetric distributions with maxima at the equator and varying off-equatorial temperature gradients on ocean and land. The other experiment will impose the land/sea warming ratio of 1.5. Since two models can be set up with identical physics parameterizations, general consensus on responses and model-dependent feedback can be suggested.

  20. A preliminary evaluation of the motivational model of pain self-management in persons with spinal cord injury related pain

    PubMed Central

    Molton, Ivan R.; Jensen, Mark P.; Nielson, Warren; Cardenas, Diana; Ehde, Dawn M.

    2008-01-01

    Chronic pain commonly accompanies long-term disabilities such as spinal cord injury (SCI). Research suggests that patient motivation to engage in adaptive pain coping strategies, such as exercise/stretching and task persistence, is an important factor in determining the impact that this pain will have on quality of life. One recently proposed model (the “Motivational Model of Pain Self-Management”) suggests that motivation to manage pain is influenced by two primary variables: beliefs about the importance of engaging in pain self-management (i.e., “perceived importance”) and beliefs about one's own ability to engage in these behaviors (i.e., “self-efficacy”). The purpose of this study was to provide a preliminary test of this model in a sample of 130 adults with SCI who completed a return by mail survey. Measures included a numerical rating scale of pain intensity and the revised version of the Multidimensional Pain Readiness to Change Questionnaire. Mediation analyses were performed using multiple regression. Results suggested that the effects of perceived importance and self-efficacy on exercise behavior were mediated by readiness to engage in exercise, consistent with the proposed model. However, the model could not be established for the outcome of task persistence. Perspective: This study tests a model describing motivation to engage in pain management behaviors (i.e., “readiness to change”) in adults with spinal cord injury. This model could potentially aid clinicians in their conceptualization of the factors that affect patient motivation to manage pain. PMID:18359668

  1. Preliminary Safety Assessment of New Azinesulfonamide Analogs of Aripiprazole using Prokaryotic Models

    PubMed Central

    Powroźnik, Beata; Słoczyńska, Karolina; Marciniec, Krzysztof; Zajdel, Paweł; Pękala, Elżbieta

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Determination of the mutagenic potential of new biologically active compounds is of great concern for preliminary toxicity testing and drug development. Methods: The mutagenic and antimutagenic effects of some quinoline- and isoquinolinesulfonamide analogs of aripiprazole (1-8), which display potent antidepressant, anxiolytic, and antipsychotic properties, were evaluated using the Vibrio harveyi assay and OSIRIS Property Explorer software. Additionally, the Ames test was used as the reference. Results: In silico prediction showed that compounds 5 (N-(3-(4-(2,3- dichlorophenyl)piperazin-1-yl)propyl)quinoline-7-sulfonamide) and 6 (N-(4-(4-(2,3- Dichlorophenyl)piperazin-1-yl)butyl)quinoline-7-sulfonamide) trigger a mutagenic structural alert. However, this was not confirmed by in vitro assays, as none of the tested compounds displayed mutagenic activity against all tested strains of bacteria. Moreover, compounds 1-8 displayed a protective effect against the mutagenicity induced by a direct acting mutagen NQNO. The most beneficial antimutagenic properties showed compound 5 which exhibited strong antimutagenic properties in all tested V. harveyi strains. High antimutagenic potency of this compound was confirmed in the Ames TA100 assay system. Conclusion: Newly synthesized azinesulfonamide analogs of aripiprazole may be considered as genotoxically safe as they do not display mutagenic activity on the tester strains. Moreover, the tested compounds demonstrated significant antimutagenic properties that can be valuable for prevention of the NQNO genotoxicity. Additionally, it appears that the Vibrio harveyi assay can be applied for primary mutagenicity and antimutagenicity assessment of chemical substances, thus, representing a useful alternative tool for compounds safety evaluation. PMID:27766221

  2. Insights into bedrock surface morphology using low-cost passive seismic surveys and integrated geostatistical analysis.

    PubMed

    Trevisani, S; Boaga, J; Agostini, L; Galgaro, A

    2017-02-01

    The HVSR (Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio) technique is very popular in the context of seismic microzonation and for the mapping of shallow seismic reflectors, such as the sediment/bedrock transition surface. This easy-to-deploy single station passive seismic technique permits the collection of a considerable amount of HVSR data in a cost-effective way. It is not surprising that some recent studies have adopted single station micro-tremor analyses in order to retrieve information on geological structures in 1D, 2D or even 3D reconstructions. However, the interpolation approaches followed in these studies for extending the punctual HVSR data spatially are not supported by a detailed spatial statistical analysis. Conversely, in order to exploit the informative content and quantify the related uncertainty of HVSR data it is necessary to utilize a deep spatial statistical analysis and objective interpolation approaches. Moreover, the interpolation approach should make it possible to use expert knowledge and auxiliary information. Accordingly, we present an integrated geostatistical approach applied to HVSR data, collected for retrieving information on the morphology of a buried bedrock surface. The geostatistical study is conducted on an experimental dataset of 116 HVSR data collected in a small thermal basin located in the Venetian Plain (Caldiero Basin, N-E Italy). The explorative geostatistical analysis of the data coupled with the use of interpolation kriging techniques permit the extraction of relevant information on the resonance properties of the subsoil. The utilized approach, based on kriging with external drift (or its extension, i.e. regression kriging), permits the researcher to take into account auxiliary information, evaluate the related prediction uncertainty, and highlight abrupt variations in subsoil resonance frequencies. The results of the analysis are discussed, also with reflections pertaining to the geo-engineering and geo

  3. Preliminary analysis of an agent-based model for a tick-borne disease.

    PubMed

    Gaff, Holly

    2011-04-01

    Ticks have a unique life history including a distinct set of life stages and a single blood meal per life stage. This makes tick-host interactions more complex from a mathematical perspective. In addition, any model of these interactions must involve a significant degree of stochasticity on the individual tick level. In an attempt to quantify these relationships, I have developed an individual-based model of the interactions between ticks and their hosts as well as the transmission of tick-borne disease between the two populations. The results from this model are compared with those from previously published differential equation based population models. The findings show that the agent-based model produces significantly lower prevalence of disease in both the ticks and their hosts than what is predicted by a similar differential equation model.

  4. 3-D finite element modelling of facial soft tissue and preliminary application in orthodontics.

    PubMed

    Chen, Si; Lou, Hangdi; Guo, Liang; Rong, Qiguo; Liu, Yi; Xu, Tian-Min

    2012-01-01

    Prediction of soft tissue aesthetics is important for achieving an optimal outcome in orthodontic treatment planning. Previously, applicable procedures were mainly restricted to 2-D profile prediction. In this study, a generic 3-D finite element (FE) model of the craniofacial soft and hard tissue was constructed, and individualisation of the generic model based on cone beam CT data and mathematical transformation was investigated. The result indicated that patient-specific 3-D facial FE model including different layers of soft tissue could be obtained through mathematical model transformation. Average deviation between the transformed model and the real reconstructed one was 0.47 ± 0.77 mm and 0.75 ± 0.84 mm in soft and hard tissue, respectively. With boundary condition defined according to treatment plan, such FE model could be used to predict the result of orthodontic treatment on facial soft tissue.

  5. In Vitro Studies and Preliminary Mathematical Model for Jet Fuel and Noise Induced Auditory Impairment

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-06-01

    and necrosis were enhanced when cells were exposed to JP-8 or hydrocarbons with oligomycin (in vitro noise surrogate). The PD model is designed to...the production of free radicals in the hair cells of the cochlea. The model assumes that free radical (FR) generation and oxidative stress combine... model ), together with its effect, and the effect of noise, on the generation of free radicals in the cochlea, and their impact on inducing cellular

  6. Preliminary Investigation of Microdosimetric Track Structure Physics Models in Geant4-DNA and RITRACKS.

    PubMed

    Douglass, Michael; Penfold, Scott; Bezak, Eva

    2015-01-01

    The major differences between the physics models in Geant4-DNA and RITRACKS Monte Carlo packages are investigated. Proton and electron ionisation interactions and electron excitation interactions in water are investigated in the current work. While these packages use similar semiempirical physics models for inelastic cross-sections, the implementation of these models is demonstrated to be significantly different. This is demonstrated in a simple Monte Carlo simulation designed to identify differences in interaction cross-sections.

  7. Preliminary Investigation of Microdosimetric Track Structure Physics Models in Geant4-DNA and RITRACKS

    PubMed Central

    Bezak, Eva

    2015-01-01

    The major differences between the physics models in Geant4-DNA and RITRACKS Monte Carlo packages are investigated. Proton and electron ionisation interactions and electron excitation interactions in water are investigated in the current work. While these packages use similar semiempirical physics models for inelastic cross-sections, the implementation of these models is demonstrated to be significantly different. This is demonstrated in a simple Monte Carlo simulation designed to identify differences in interaction cross-sections. PMID:26124856

  8. Preliminary gravity inversion model of basins east of Yucca Flat, Nevada Test Site, Nevada.

    SciTech Connect

    Geoffrey A. Phelps; Carter W. Roberts, and Barry C. Moring

    2006-03-17

    The Yucca Flat eastern extension study area, a 14 kilometer by 45 kilometer region contiguous to Yucca Flat on the west and Frenchman Flat on the south, is being studied to expand the boundary of the Yucca Flat hydrogeologic model. The isostatic residual gravity anomaly was inverted to create a model of the depth of the geologic basins within the study area. Such basins typically are floored by dense pre-Tertiary basement rocks and filled with less-dense Tertiary volcanic and sedimentary rocks and Quaternary alluvium, a necessary condition for the use of gravity modeling to predict the depth to the pre-Tertiary basement rocks within the basins. Three models were created: a preferred model to represent the best estimate of depth to pre-Tertiary basement rocks in the study area, and two end-member models to demonstrate the possible range of solutions. The preferred model predicts shallow basins, generally less than 1,000m depth, throughout the study area, with only Emigrant Valley reaching a depth of 1,100m. Plutonium valley and West Fork Scarp Canyon have maximum depths of 800m and 1,000m, respectively. The end-member models indicate that the uncertainty in the preferred model is less than 200m for most of the study area.

  9. Is a Swine Model of Arteriovenous Malformation Suitable for Human Extracranial Arteriovenous Malformation? A Preliminary Study

    SciTech Connect

    Lv, Ming-ming; Fan, Xin-dong; Su, Li-xin

    2013-10-15

    Objective: A chronic arteriovenous malformation (AVM) model using the swine retia mirabilia (RMB) was developed and compared with the human extracranial AVM (EAVM) both in hemodynamics and pathology, to see if this brain AVM model can be used as an EAVM model. Methods: We created an arteriovenous fistula between the common carotid artery and the external jugular vein in eight animals by using end-to-end anastomosis. All animals were sacrificed 1 month after surgery, and the bilateral retia were obtained at autopsy and performed hematoxylin and eosin staining and immunohistochemistry. Pre- and postsurgical hemodynamic evaluations also were conducted. Then, the blood flow and histological changes of the animal model were compared with human EAVM. Results: The angiography after operation showed that the blood flow, like human EAVM, flowed from the feeding artery, via the nidus, drained to the draining vein. Microscopic examination showed dilated lumina and disrupted internal elastic lamina in both RMB of model and nidus of human EAVM, but the thickness of vessel wall had significant difference. Immunohistochemical reactivity for smooth muscle actin, angiopoietin 1, and angiopoietin 2 were similar in chronic model nidus microvessels and human EAVM, whereas vascular endothelial growth factor was significant difference between human EAVM and RMB of model. Conclusions: The AVM model described here is similar to human EAVM in hemodynamics and immunohistochemical features, but there are still some differences in anatomy and pathogenetic mechanism. Further study is needed to evaluate the applicability and efficacy of this model.

  10. Preliminary results from a four-working space, double-acting piston, Stirling engine controls model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daniele, C. J.; Lorenzo, C. F.

    1980-01-01

    A four working space, double acting piston, Stirling engine simulation is being developed for controls studies. The development method is to construct two simulations, one for detailed fluid behavior, and a second model with simple fluid behaviour but containing the four working space aspects and engine inertias, validate these models separately, then upgrade the four working space model by incorporating the detailed fluid behaviour model for all four working spaces. The single working space (SWS) model contains the detailed fluid dynamics. It has seven control volumes in which continuity, energy, and pressure loss effects are simulated. Comparison of the SWS model with experimental data shows reasonable agreement in net power versus speed characteristics for various mean pressure levels in the working space. The four working space (FWS) model was built to observe the behaviour of the whole engine. The drive dynamics and vehicle inertia effects are simulated. To reduce calculation time, only three volumes are used in each working space and the gas temperature are fixed (no energy equation). Comparison of the FWS model predicted power with experimental data shows reasonable agreement. Since all four working spaces are simulated, the unique capabilities of the model are exercised to look at working fluid supply transients, short circuit transients, and piston ring leakage effects.

  11. Timescape: a simple space-time interpolation geostatistical Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciolfi, Marco; Chiocchini, Francesca; Gravichkova, Olga; Pisanelli, Andrea; Portarena, Silvia; Scartazza, Andrea; Brugnoli, Enrico; Lauteri, Marco

    2016-04-01

    Environmental sciences include both time and space variability in their datasets. Some established tools exist for both spatial interpolation and time series analysis alone, but mixing space and time variability calls for compromise: Researchers are often forced to choose which is the main source of variation, neglecting the other. We propose a simple algorithm, which can be used in many fields of Earth and environmental sciences when both time and space variability must be considered on equal grounds. The algorithm has already been implemented in Java language and the software is currently available at https://sourceforge.net/projects/timescapeglobal/ (it is published under GNU-GPL v3.0 Free Software License). The published version of the software, Timescape Global, is focused on continent- to Earth-wide spatial domains, using global longitude-latitude coordinates for samples localization. The companion Timescape Local software is currently under development ad will be published with an open license as well; it will use projected coordinates for a local to regional space scale. The basic idea of the Timescape Algorithm consists in converting time into a sort of third spatial dimension, with the addition of some causal constraints, which drive the interpolation including or excluding observations according to some user-defined rules. The algorithm is applicable, as a matter of principle, to anything that can be represented with a continuous variable (a scalar field, technically speaking). The input dataset should contain position, time and observed value of all samples. Ancillary data can be included in the interpolation as well. After the time-space conversion, Timescape follows basically the old-fashioned IDW (Inverse Distance Weighted) interpolation Algorithm, although users have a wide choice of customization options that, at least partially, overcome some of the known issues of IDW. The three-dimensional model produced by the Timescape Algorithm can be

  12. New advances in methodology for statistical tests useful in geostatistical studies

    SciTech Connect

    Borgman, L.E.

    1988-05-01

    Methodology for statistical procedures to perform tests of hypothesis pertaining to various aspects of geostatistical investigations has been slow in developing. The correlated nature of the data precludes most classical tests and makes the design of new tests difficult. Recent studies have led to modifications of the classical t test which allow for the intercorrelation. In addition, results for certain nonparametric tests have been obtained. The conclusions of these studies provide a variety of new tools for the geostatistician in deciding questions on significant differences and magnitudes.

  13. Preliminary results of Physiological plant growth modelling for human life support in space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sasidharan L, Swathy; Dussap, Claude-Gilles; Hezard, Pauline

    2012-07-01

    Human life support is fundamental and crucial in any kind of space explorations. MELiSSA project of European Space Agency aims at developing a closed, artificial ecological life support system involving human, plants and micro organisms. Consuming carbon dioxide and water from the life support system, plants grow in one of the chambers and convert it into food and oxygen along with potable water. The environmental conditions, nutrient availability and its consumption of plants should be studied and necessarily modeled to predict the amount of food, oxygen and water with respect to the environmental changes and limitations. The reliability of a completely closed system mainly depends on the control laws and strategies used. An efficient control can occur, only if the system to control is itself well known, described and ideally if the responses of the system to environmental changes are predictable. In this aspect, the general structure of plant growth model has been designed together with physiological modelling.The physiological model consists of metabolic models of leaves, stem and roots, of which concern specific metabolisms of the associated plant parts. On the basis of the carbon source transport (eg. sucrose) through stem, the metabolic models (leaf and root) can be interconnected to each other and finally coupled to obtain the entire plant model. For the first step, leaf metabolic model network was built using stoichiometric, mass and energy balanced metabolic equations under steady state approach considering all necessary plant pathways for growth and maintenance of leaves. As the experimental data for lettuce plants grown in closed and controlled environmental chambers were available, the leaf metabolic model has been established for lettuce leaves. The constructed metabolic network is analyzed using known stoichiometric metabolic technique called metabolic flux analysis (MFA). Though, the leaf metabolic model alone is not sufficient to achieve the

  14. Modelling the Cooling of Coffee: Insights from a Preliminary Study in Indonesia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Widjaja, Wanty

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses an attempt to examine pre-service teachers' mathematical modelling skills. A modelling project investigating relationships between temperature and time in the process of cooling of coffee was chosen. The analysis was based on group written reports of the cooling of coffee project and observation of classroom discussion.…

  15. Toward an Integrative Model of Creativity and Personality: Theoretical Suggestions and Preliminary Empirical Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fü rst, Guillaume; Ghisletta, Paolo; Lubart, Todd

    2016-01-01

    The present work proposes an integrative model of creativity that includes personality traits and cognitive processes. This model hypothesizes that three high-order personality factors predict two main process factors, which in turn predict intensity and achievement of creative activities. The personality factors are: "Plasticity" (high…

  16. A preliminary coupled MT-GA model for the prediction of highway runoff quality.

    PubMed

    Opher, Tamar; Friedler, Eran

    2009-07-15

    Pollutants accumulated on road pavement during dry periods are washed off the surface with runoff water during rainfall events, presenting a potentially hazardous non-point source of pollution. Estimation of pollutant loads in these runoff waters is required for developing mitigation and management strategies, yet the numerous factors involved and their complex interconnected influences make straightforward assessment impossible. Data-driven models (DDMs) have lately been used in water and environmental research and have shown very good prediction ability. The proposed methodology of a coupled MT-GA (model tree-genetic algorithm) model provides an effective, accurate and easily calibrated predictive model for EMC (event mean concentration) of highway runoff pollutants. The models were trained and verified using a comprehensive data set of runoff events monitored in various highways in California, USA. EMCs of Cr, Pb, Zn, TOC and TSS were modeled, using different combinations of explanatory variables. The models' prediction ability in terms of correlation between predicted and actual values of both training and verification data was mostly higher than previously reported values. Sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the relative significance of each explanatory variable and the models' response to changes in input values.

  17. Remote sensing input to GIS-integrated cotton growth model: preliminary results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gogineni, Swapna; Thomasson, J. Alex; Iqbal, Javed; Wooten, James R.; Kolla, Bulli M.; Sui, Ruixiu

    2004-11-01

    External-interface computer code has been written for the cotton growth model, Gossym, such that it can be operated from the ArcView GIS interface. Remote-sensing data have been incorporated as an estimator of plant height for feedback to the model. Management zones are delineated automatically based on available spatially variable data, and Gossym subsequently calculates outputs for each management zone, and uses current remote-sensing data in the calculations. This advanced Gossym model system also gathers local weather data automatically over the internet. Development and use of the model system are also described. Site-specific field data and remotely sensed images have been collected extensively on two agricultural fields in Mississippi from 1998 through 2003. Evaluation of yield prediction based on the Gossym model system indicated that current remote-sensing data can enhance accuracy. Details of experimentation and data analysis are presented.

  18. Preliminary evaluation of PSCM and BIPP melter design and operating conditions using physical modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Skarda, R.J.; Hauser, S.G.; Fort, J.A.

    1985-05-01

    The Glass Melter Physical Modeling investigation was initiated to support Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) Hanford Waste Vitrification Program. Specifically, results discussed herein are those of the modeled B-Plant Immobilization Pilot Plant (BIPP) and Pilot Scale Ceramic Melter (PSCM) designs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate various melter design features using laboratory scale models. Hydrodynamic, thermal, and electrical similarity between the modeling fluid and the molten glass were primary objectives. Stroboscopic velocity measurements (flow visualization), temperature measurements, and electrical potential measurements were used to investigate the molten glass behavior. Results from this effort are to provide input to melter design and proposed operation in addition to providing a data base for verifying numerical models. 13 refs., 48 figs., 24 tabs.

  19. Preliminary studies of tunnel interface response modeling using test data from underground storage facilities.

    SciTech Connect

    Sobolik, Steven Ronald; Bartel, Lewis Clark

    2010-11-01

    correctly image the tunnel. This report represents a preliminary step in the development of a methodology to convert numerical predictions of rock properties to an estimation of the extent of rock damage around an underground facility and its corresponding seismic velocity, and the corresponding application to design a testing methodology for tunnel detection.

  20. Optimization-based multiple-point geostatistics: A sparse way

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalantari, Sadegh; Abdollahifard, Mohammad Javad

    2016-10-01

    In multiple-point simulation the image should be synthesized consistent with the given training image and hard conditioning data. Existing sequential simulation methods usually lead to error accumulation which is hardly manageable in future steps. Optimization-based methods are capable of handling inconsistencies by iteratively refining the simulation grid. In this paper, the multiple-point stochastic simulation problem is formulated in an optimization-based framework using a sparse model. Sparse model allows each patch to be constructed as a superposition of a few atoms of a dictionary formed using training patterns, leading to a significant increase in the variability of the patches. To control the creativity of the model, a local histogram matching method is proposed. Furthermore, effective solutions are proposed for different issues arisen in multiple-point simulation. In order to handle hard conditioning data a weighted matching pursuit method is developed in this paper. Moreover, a simple and efficient thresholding method is developed which allows working with categorical variables. The experiments show that the proposed method produces acceptable realizations in terms of pattern reproduction, increases the variability of the realizations, and properly handles numerous conditioning data.

  1. Preliminary development of a nuclear propulsion officer enlistment supply model. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Serfass, P.T.

    1986-09-01

    This study constructs linear forecasting models, for each of the six Navy Recruiting Areas and the Recruiting Command, that attempt to predict future United States Navy Nuclear Propulsion Officer contracts signed in any one of four fiscal year quarters, given estimates of independent supply variables included in the models. The models are developed using stepwise multiple regression analysis with ordinary least squares and are supported by historical data from fiscal years 1981 through 1985. In developing the models, the thesis examines the relationship between the contracts signed in a given quarter and the following supply variables: number of recruiters, annual goals of number of contracts to be signed, military-to-civilian pay ratio, unemployment rate, size of target population (in the form of market share), advertising and marketing costs and seasonal effects, represented by proxy variables. The assumptions of using multiple regression analysis and linear models are examined through a graphical study of the residuals and do not seem to be refuted. Each of the models are corrected for first order autocorrelation. Validation of the forecasting models was attempted by the comparison of predicted contracts signed in a quarter against new contract data obtained for fiscal year 1986. The results of the forecasting comparisons are much worse than expected. Possible causes for the large error percentages in the comparisons are mentioned in this study but not examined in detail.

  2. Preliminary gravity inversion model of Frenchman Flat Basin, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Phelps, Geoffrey A.; Graham, Scott E.

    2002-01-01

    The depth of the basin beneath Frenchman Flat is estimated using a gravity inversion method. Gamma-gamma density logs from two wells in Frenchman Flat constrained the density profiles used to create the gravity inversion model. Three initial models were considered using data from one well, then a final model is proposed based on new information from the second well. The preferred model indicates that a northeast-trending oval-shaped basin underlies Frenchman Flat at least 2,100 m deep, with a maximum depth of 2,400 m at its northeast end. No major horst and graben structures are predicted. Sensitivity analysis of the model indicates that each parameter contributes the same magnitude change to the model, up to 30 meters change in depth for a 1% change in density, but some parameters affect a broader area of the basin. The horizontal resolution of the model was determined by examining the spacing between data stations, and was set to 500 square meters.

  3. Preliminary gravity inversion model of Frenchman Flat Basin, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Phelps, G.A.; Graham, S.E.

    2002-10-01

    The depth of the basin beneath Frenchman Flat is estimated using a gravity inversion method. Gamma-gamma density logs from two wells in Frenchman Flat constrained the density profiles used to create the gravity inversion model. Three initial models were considered using data from one well, then a final model is proposed based on new information from the second well. The preferred model indicates that a northeast-trending oval-shaped basin underlies Frenchman Flat at least 2,100 m deep, with a maximum depth of 2,400 m at its northeast end. No major horst and graben structures are predicted. Sensitivity analysis of the model indicates that each parameter contributes the same magnitude change to the model, up to 30 meters change in depth for a 1% change in density, but some parameters affect a broader area of the basin. The horizontal resolution of the model was determined by examining the spacing between data stations, and was set to 500 square meters.

  4. A preliminary C-band scatterometer model function for the ERS-1 AMI instrument

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Freilich, M. H.; Dunbar, R. S.

    1993-01-01

    Backscatter cross section (sigma(sub 0)) measurements from the ERS-1 scatterometer are collocated with surface wind velocity data from operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) analyses to yield a fully empirical C band model function. The empirical model does not obey a power law at speeds less than 5 m/s, and upwind/crosswind ratios are small for all incidence angles at low wind speeds and for small incidence angles at all wind speeds. Downwind sigma(sub 0) exceeds upwind values for incidence angles below approximately 28 degrees. The full ERS-1 scatterometer data set has been reprocessed using the NWP model function.

  5. Preliminary evaluation of the Minerals Management Service`s offshore modeling system: A long-range modeling alternative

    SciTech Connect

    Capuano, M.E.; Kienzle, M.A.; Steorts, W.L.

    1994-12-31

    The Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service (MMS) has recently adopted an alternative modeling capability for tracking pollutant releases from offshore platforms in the Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. The new modeling system provides transport and diffusion capabilities well beyond the existing straight-line Gaussian models (OCD, Offshore and Coastal Dispersion Model and E.P.A.`s SCREEN Model), which are limited by design to a maximum 50 km range. The new model, {open_quotes}SLAM{close_quotes} (Short-range Layered Atmospheric Model), is part of the Offshore Modeling System, which provides a well integrated modeling capability supported by a fully automated dial-up data service. The Offshore Modeling System executes on a Sun SPARCStation 2 at the MMS in New Orleans. All weather observations are provided through WSI Corporation and are ingested by the model`s preprocessor which builds validated model input files. A typical model simulation takes less than 60 minutes from start to finish as compared to the very time-intensive model preparation required by current regulatory models.

  6. Characterizing regional soil mineral composition using spectroscopyand geostatistics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mulder, V.L.; de Bruin, S.; Weyermann, J.; Kokaly, Raymond F.; Schaepman, M.E.

    2013-01-01

    This work aims at improving the mapping of major mineral variability at regional scale using scale-dependent spatial variability observed in remote sensing data. Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data and statistical methods were combined with laboratory-based mineral characterization of field samples to create maps of the distributions of clay, mica and carbonate minerals and their abundances. The Material Identification and Characterization Algorithm (MICA) was used to identify the spectrally-dominant minerals in field samples; these results were combined with ASTER data using multinomial logistic regression to map mineral distributions. X-ray diffraction (XRD)was used to quantify mineral composition in field samples. XRD results were combined with ASTER data using multiple linear regression to map mineral abundances. We testedwhether smoothing of the ASTER data to match the scale of variability of the target sample would improve model correlations. Smoothing was donewith Fixed Rank Kriging (FRK) to represent the mediumand long-range spatial variability in the ASTER data. Stronger correlations resulted using the smoothed data compared to results obtained with the original data. Highest model accuracies came from using both medium and long-range scaled ASTER data as input to the statistical models. High correlation coefficients were obtained for the abundances of calcite and mica (R2 = 0.71 and 0.70, respectively). Moderately-high correlation coefficients were found for smectite and kaolinite (R2 = 0.57 and 0.45, respectively). Maps of mineral distributions, obtained by relating ASTER data to MICA analysis of field samples, were found to characterize major soil mineral variability (overall accuracies for mica, smectite and kaolinite were 76%, 89% and 86% respectively). The results of this study suggest that the distributions of minerals and their abundances derived using FRK-smoothed ASTER data more closely match the spatial

  7. Preliminary characterization of materials for a reactive transport model validation experiment

    SciTech Connect

    Siegel, M.D.; Ward, D.B.; Cheng, W.C.; Bryant, C.; Chocas, C.S.; Reynolds, C.G.

    1993-03-01

    The geochemical properties of a porous sand and several tracers (Ni, Br, and Li) have been characterized for use in a caisson experiment designed to validate sorption models used in models of inactive transport. The surfaces of the sand grains have been examined by a combination of techniques including potentiometric titration, acid leaching, optical microscopy, and scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive spectroscopy. The surface studies indicate the presence of small amounts of carbonate, kaolinite and iron-oxyhydroxides. Adsorption of nickel, lithium and bromide by the sand was measured using batch techniques. Bromide was not sorbed by the sand. A linear (K{sub d}) or an isotherm sorption model may adequately describe transport of Li; however, a model describing the changes of pH and the concentrations of other solution species as a function of time and position within the caisson and the concomitant effects on Ni sorption may be required for accurate predictions of nickel transport.

  8. A model of motivational orientation for youth sport: some preliminary work.

    PubMed

    Wong, E H; Bridges, L J

    1995-01-01

    This project was an attempt to test a model of motivational orientation in the youth sport setting. Although previous developmental work in this area had examined a number of intra- and interpersonal variables thought to influence children's motivational orientation, few studies have tested an integrated model. Questionnaires assessing perceived competence, perceived control, competitive trait anxiety, and motivational orientation were completed by 108 boys. Additionally, 12 coaches were observed for two games in order to record coaching behaviors during competition. The model tested demonstrated an excellent fit of data. In particular, the model showed that both coaching behaviors and children's trait anxiety causally influenced perception of control. Moreover, perceived control causally determined both perceived competence and motivational orientation. Lastly, the influence of coaching behavior and trait anxiety on perceived competence were mediated by perceived control. Implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.

  9. Regression model estimation of early season crop proportions: North Dakota, some preliminary results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lin, K. K. (Principal Investigator)

    1982-01-01

    To estimate crop proportions early in the season, an approach is proposed based on: use of a regression-based prediction equation to obtain an a priori estimate for specific major crop groups; modification of this estimate using current-year LANDSAT and weather data; and a breakdown of the major crop groups into specific crops by regression models. Results from the development and evaluation of appropriate regression models for the first portion of the proposed approach are presented. The results show that the model predicts 1980 crop proportions very well at both county and crop reporting district levels. In terms of planted acreage, the model underpredicted 9.1 percent of the 1980 published data on planted acreage at the county level. It predicted almost exactly the 1980 published data on planted acreage at the crop reporting district level and overpredicted the planted acreage by just 0.92 percent.

  10. Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation Experiments - North Atlantic Basin; Preliminary Experiment Plan.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-12-01

    and will be allowed to evolve as the experiment proceeds. A brief description by participants of models and data assimilation methods are included....describes the approach to implement a comparative environment in which to assess numerical ocean model nowcast/forecast capabilities and data assimilation ... methods and techniques. Goals are stated which provide direction for the long term, the next five years, and specifically for the next two years. A

  11. Mapping forest parameters using geostatistics and remote sensing data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, Sian Patricia

    This work presents a new method for characterising forests with remote sensing data using numerical scene simulations and spatial statistics. The principal study area is Cat Tien National Park, Vietnam. This site has undergone both recent changes in vegetation composition associated with population pressures, as well as historical changes due to military activities during the 1960s and 70s and provides an appropriate location for spatio-temporal monitoring of forest structure. The principal remote sensing data used comprises a set of panchromatic declassified air-photos (1965--1966). The lack of flight details for these makes established techniques for exterior orientation impractical. An alternative means to geo-rectifying these data is therefore presented. This focuses on a new application of a stereomatching algorithm, where a disparity model, related to topographic features, is first built and then co-registered to a geo-referenced elevation model to provide the transformation required to correct the air-photos. These geo-rectified data are then processed for forest parameter extraction. Scene modelling is used to produce simulations of varying ground structure. A geo-optical model is used to capture the shape and size distribution of objects in the scene, and to allow for crown shading on the trees. The scene variogram is considered as a combination of spatial interactions between scene elements (crown and ground), which are described by 'component variograms'. These are examined under differing scene specifications, and used to explore and explain the mechanisms responsible for variations in scene variogram 'range' across multi-spectral data. The scene simulations provide a set of candidate model variograms, derived from physical realisations of scene structure, for use in inverting the experimental scene variogram, where forest structural parameters are derived from the realisation associated with the best fit. Results are presented for the high resolution

  12. Effects of a New Allograft Processing Procedure on Graft Healing in a Canine Model: A Preliminary Study