Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.

2009-06-01

This Preliminary Assessment draft report will present the results of a literature search and preliminary assessment of the body of research, analysis methods, models and data deemed to be relevant to the Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment research. This report will provide: 1) a description of the problem space and the kinds of information pertinent to the problem space, 2) a discussion of key relevant or representative literature, 3) a discussion of models and modeling approaches judged to be potentially useful to the research, and 4) the next steps of this research that will be pursued based onmore » this preliminary assessment. This draft report represents a technical deliverable for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling (SAM) program. Specifically this draft report is the Task 1 deliverable for project PL09-UtilSocial-PD06, Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment. This project investigates non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessment, including nonproliferation assessment, proliferation resistance assessments, safeguards assessments and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about the State’s posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This project will find and fuse social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation. The aim of this research is to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment.« less

Do doctors accurately assess coronary risk in their patients? Preliminary results of the coronary health assessment study.

PubMed Central

Grover, S. A.; Lowensteyn, I.; Esrey, K. L.; Steinert, Y.; Joseph, L.; Abrahamowicz, M.

1995-01-01

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the ability of doctors in primary care to assess risk patients' risk of coronary heart disease. DESIGN--Questionnaire survey. SETTING--Continuing medical education meetings, Ontario and Quebec, Canada. SUBJECTS--Community based doctors who agreed to enroll in the coronary health assessment study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Ratings of coronary risk factors and estimates by doctors of relative and absolute coronary risk of two hypothetical patients and the "average" 40 year old Canadian man and 70 year old Canadian woman. RESULTS--253 doctors answered the questionnaire. For 30 year olds the doctors rated cigarette smoking as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important; for 70 year old patients they rated diabetes as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important. They rated each individual risk factor as significantly less important for 70 year olds than for 30 year olds (all risk factors, P < 0.001). They showed a strong understanding of the relative importance of specific risk factors, and most were confident in their ability to estimate coronary risk. While doctors accurately estimated the relative risk of a specific patient (compared with the average adult) they systematically overestimated the absolute baseline risk of developing coronary disease and the risk reductions associated with specific interventions. CONCLUSIONS--Despite guidelines on targeting patients at high risk of coronary disease accurate assessment of coronary risk remains difficult for many doctors. Additional strategies must be developed to help doctors to assess better their patients' coronary risk. PMID:7728035

The Soviet Military Views Operation Desert Storm: A Preliminary Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-23

NO. IACCESSION NO. 11. TITLE (Include Security Classification) The Soviet Military Views Operation Desert Storm: .A Preliminary Assessment UNCLASSIFIED...VIEWS OPERATION DESERT STORM: A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT Stephen J. Blank Av~qoxa 10 a r I~ )~ I.RA&I .1 . a .. _ . . .. J l tia.o.. .. ._ ’Vflstribitleu...preliminary assessments , largely through the spring of 1991, suggest lines of argument that will surely appear later in greater depth, detail, and

Preliminary assessment of the risk of Salmonella infection in dogs fed raw chicken diets.

PubMed

Joffe, Daniel J; Schlesinger, Daniel P

2002-06-01

This preliminary study assessed the presence of Salmonella spp. in a bones and raw food (BARF) diet and in the stools of dogs consuming it. Salmonella was isolated from 80% of the BARF diet samples (P < 0.001) and from 30% of the stool samples from dogs fed the diet (P = 0.105). Dogs fed raw chicken may therefore be a source of environmental contamination.

Preliminary assessment of the risk of Salmonella infection in dogs fed raw chicken diets

PubMed Central

Joffe, Daniel J.; Schlesinger, Daniel P.

2002-01-01

This preliminary study assessed the presence of Salmonella spp. in a bones and raw food (BARF) diet and in the stools of dogs consuming it. Salmonella was isolated from 80% of the BARF diet samples (P < 0.001) and from 30% of the stool samples from dogs fed the diet (P = 0.105). Dogs fed raw chicken may therefore be a source of environmental contamination. PMID:12058569

Dissonance-based eating disorder program reduces cardiac risk: A preliminary trial.

PubMed

Green, Melinda A; Willis, Mary; Fernandez-Kong, Kristen; Reyes, Shuhan; Linkhart, Ruby; Johnson, Molly; Thorne, Tyler; Kroska, Emily; Woodward, Halley; Lindberg, Jessica

2017-04-01

We conducted a randomized, controlled preliminary trial to examine the effect of a dissonance-based eating disorder program on eating disorder symptoms and cardiac risk indices in a community sample of women with subclinical and clinical symptoms (N = 47), examining the efficacy of the program in both the indicated prevention and treatment realms. Eating disorder symptoms, body mass index, and biomarkers of cardiac risk were examined in dissonance and assessment-only control conditions at baseline, postintervention, and 2-month follow-up. Specifically, we assessed mean R wave amplitude, QT interval length, vagal tone (high frequency spectral power of heart rate variability), and sympathetic tone (low/high frequency spectral power ratio) via electocardiography (ECG) at each assessment period. We predicted a statistically significant 2 (condition: control, dissonance) × 3 (time: baseline, postintervention, 2-month follow-up) interaction in the mixed factorial MANOVA results. Results confirmed this hypothesis. Eating disorder symptoms and cardiac risk indices decreased significantly among participants in the dissonance condition at postintervention and 2-month follow-up compared with baseline. Results provide support for the efficacy of a dissonance-based program in the reduction of eating disorder symptoms and cardiac risk indices among women with subclinical and clinical eating disorder symptoms. Findings establish the efficaciousness of this dissonance-based approach in the indicated prevention and treatment realms and establish its efficacy in reducing cardiac risk indicators. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

U.S. EPA Superfund Program's Policy for Risk and Dose Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walker, Stuart

2008-01-15

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Superfund Remediation and Technology Innovation (OSRTI) has primary responsibility for implementing the long-term (non-emergency) portion of a key U.S. law regulating cleanup: the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act, CERCLA, nicknamed 'Superfund'. The purpose of the Superfund program is to protect human health and the environment over the long term from releases or potential releases of hazardous substances from abandoned or uncontrolled hazardous waste sites. The focus of this paper is on risk and dose assessment policies and tools for addressing radioactively contaminated sites by the Superfund program. EPA has almost completedmore » two risk assessment tools that are particularly relevant to decommissioning activities conducted under CERCLA authority. These are the: 1. Building Preliminary Remediation Goals for Radionuclides (BPRG) electronic calculator, and 2. Radionuclide Outdoor Surfaces Preliminary Remediation Goals (SPRG) electronic calculator. EPA developed the BPRG calculator to help standardize the evaluation and cleanup of radiologically contaminated buildings at which risk is being assessed for occupancy. BPRGs are radionuclide concentrations in dust, air and building materials that correspond to a specified level of human cancer risk. The intent of SPRG calculator is to address hard outside surfaces such as building slabs, outside building walls, sidewalks and roads. SPRGs are radionuclide concentrations in dust and hard outside surface materials. EPA is also developing the 'Radionuclide Ecological Benchmark' calculator. This calculator provides biota concentration guides (BCGs), also known as ecological screening benchmarks, for use in ecological risk assessments at CERCLA sites. This calculator is intended to develop ecological benchmarks as part of the EPA guidance 'Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund: Process for Designing and Conducting Ecological

Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

PubMed

Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

2015-01-01

Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

Variable Lifting Index for Manual-Lifting Risk Assessment: A Preliminary Validation Study.

PubMed

Battevi, Natale; Pandolfi, Monica; Cortinovis, Ivan

2016-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of the new Variable Lifting Index (VLI) method, theoretically based on the Revised National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health [NIOSH] Lifting Equation (RNLE), in predicting the risk of acute low-back pain (LBP) in the past 12 months. A new risk variable termed the VLI for assessing variable manual lifting has been developed, but there has been no epidemiological study that evaluates the relationship between the VLI and LBP. A sample of 3,402 study participants from 16 companies in different industrial sectors was analyzed. Of the participants, 2,374 were in the risk exposure group involving manual materials handling (MMH), and 1,028 were in the control group without MMH. The VLI was calculated for each participant in the exposure group using a systematic approach. LBP information was collected by occupational physicians at the study sites. The risk of acute LBP was estimated by calculating the odds ratio (OR) between levels of the risk exposure and the control group using a logistic regression analysis. Both crude and adjusted ORs for body mass index, gender, and age were analyzed. Both crude and adjusted ORs showed a dose-response relationship. As the levels of VLI increased, the risk of LBP increased. This risk relationship existed when VLI was greater than 1. The VLI method can be used to assess the risk of acute LBP, although further studies are needed to confirm the outcome and to define better VLI categories. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

78 FR 45169 - GENECTIVE SA; Availability of Plant Pest Risk Assessment, Environmental Assessment, Preliminary...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-26

... Engineered for Herbicide Resistance AGENCY: Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice... herbicide glyphosate. We are also making available for public review our plant pest risk assessment... VCO-01981-5, which has been genetically engineered for resistance to the herbicide glyphosate. The...

Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graber, Robert R.

2010-01-01

A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

A spatially-dynamic preliminary risk assessment of the American peregrine falcon at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (version 1)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.

1997-06-01

The Endangered Species Act and the Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory require protection of the American peregrine falcon. A preliminary risk assessment of the peregrine was performed using a custom FORTRAN model and a geographical information system. Estimated doses to the falcon were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices. Hazard index results indicated no unacceptable risk to the falcon from the soil ingestion pathway, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. Scaling home ranges on themore » basis of maximizing falcon height for viewing prey decreased estimated risk by 69% in a canyons-based home range and increased estimated risk by 40% in a river-based home range. Improving model realism by weighting simulated falcon foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased risk by 93% in one exposure unit and by 82% in a second exposure unit. It was demonstrated that choice of toxicity reference values can have a substantial impact on risk estimates. Adding bioaccumulation factors for several organics increased partial hazard quotients by a factor of 110, but increased the mean hazard index by only 0.02 units. Adding a food consumption exposure pathway in the form of biomagnification factors for 15 contaminants of potential ecological concern increased the mean hazard index to 1.16 ({+-} 1.0), which is above the level of acceptability (1.0). Aroclor-1254, dichlorodiphenyltrichlorethane (DDT) and dichlorodiphenylethelyne (DDE) accounted for 81% of the estimated risk that includes soil ingestion and food consumption Contaminant pathways and a biomagnification component. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, falcon habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations. 123 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Environmental risk assessment of a genetically-engineered microorganism: Erwinia carotovora

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orvos, D.R.

1989-01-01

Environmental use of genetically-engineered microorganisms (GEMs) has raised concerns over potential ecological impact. Development of microcosm systems useful in preliminary testing for risk assessment will provide useful information for predicting potential structural, functional, and genetic effects of GEM release. This study was executed to develop techniques that may be useful in risk assessment and microbial ecology, to ascertain which parameters are useful in determining risk and to predict risk from releasing an engineered strain of Erwinia carotovora. A terrestrial microcosm system for use in GEM risk assessment studies was developed for use in assessing alterations of microbial structure and functionmore » that may be caused by introducing the engineered strain of E. carotovora. This strain is being developed for use as a biological control agent for plant soft rot. Parameters that were monitored included survival and intraspecific competition of E. carotovora, structural effects upon both total bacterial populations and numbers of selected bacterial genera, effects upon activities of dehydrogenase and alkaline phosphatase, effects upon soil nutrients, and potential for gene transfer into or out of the engineered strain.« less

San Mateo Creek Basin Preliminary Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The objective of this Preliminary Assessment is to evaluate the site using the Hazard Ranking System and the Superfund Chemical Data Matrix to determine if a threat to human health and the environment exists such that further action is warranted.

Preliminary Ecological Risk Assessment for Nitrogen at Pearl Harbor Naval Shipboard

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-12-01

Under authority of J. G. Grovhoug, Head R. H. Moore, Head Marine Environmental Quality Branch Environmental Science Division P I I I I I I I I PS I i... Environmental Science estuaries nitrogen Dissolved Concentration Potential eutrophication Particle Retention Efficiency Ecological Risk Assessment 16

Environment effects from SRB exhaust effluents: Technique development and preliminary assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldford, A. I.; Adelfang, S. I.; Hickey, J. S.; Smith, S. R.; Welty, R. P.; White, G. L.

1977-01-01

Techniques to determine the environmental effects from the space shuttle SRB (Solid Rocket Booster) exhaust effluents are used to perform a preliminary climatological assessment. The exhaust effluent chemistry study was performed and the exhaust effluent species were determined. A reasonable exhaust particle size distribution is constructed for use in nozzle analyses and for the deposition model. The preliminary assessment is used to identify problems that are associated with the full-scale assessment; therefore, these preliminary air quality results are used with caution in drawing conclusion regarding the environmental effects of the space shuttle exhaust effluents.

75 FR 1770 - An Approach to Using Toxicogenomic Data in U.S. EPA Human Health Risk Assessments: A Dibutyl...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-13

... qualitative aspects of the risk assessment because of the type of genomic data available for DBP. It is... Assessment (NCEA) within EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD). Toxicogenomics is the application of... exploratory methods for analyzing genomic data for application to risk assessment and some preliminary results...

EPA Releases Neonicotinoid Assessments for Public Comment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Release of preliminary ecological and human health risk assessments for the neonicotinoid insecticides clothianidin, thiamethoxam, and dinotefuran, and a preliminary ecological risk assessment for imidacloprid, assessing risks to birds,mammals, non-target

Preliminary risk assessment of the Mexican Spotted Owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.

The Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory requires that the Department of Energy takes special precautions to protect the Mexican Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis lucida). In order to do so, risk to the owl presented by radiological and nonradiological contaminants must be estimated. A preliminary risk assessment on the Mexican Spotted Owl in two Ecological Exposure Units (EEUs) was performed using a modified Environmental Protection Agency Quotient method, the FORTRAN model ECORSK4, and a geographic information system. Estimated doses to the owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime were comparedmore » against toxicological reference doses generating hazard indices (HIs) and hazard quotients (HQs) for three risk source types. The average HI was 0.20 for EEU-21 and 0.0015 for EEU-40. Under the risk parameter assumptions made, hazard quotient results indicated no unacceptable risk to the owl, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. An HI of 1.0 was used as the evaluative criteria for determining the acceptability of risk. This value was exceeded (1.06) in only one of 200 simulated potential nest sites. Cesium-137, Ni, {sup 239}Pu, Al and {sup 234}U we`re among the constituents with the highest partial HQs. Improving model realism by weighting simulated owl foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased the estimated risk by 72% (0.5 HI units) for EEU-21 and by 97.6% (6.3E-02 HI units) for EEU-40. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, owl habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain risk from contaminants at acceptably low levels.« less

Indoor air quality investigation and health risk assessment at correctional institutions.

PubMed

Ofungwu, Joseph

2005-04-01

A comprehensive indoor air-quality (IAQ) investigation was conducted at a state correctional facility in New Jersey, USA with a lengthy history of IAQ problems. The IAQ investigation comprised preliminary indoor air screening using direct readout instrumentation, indoor air/surface wipe sampling and laboratory analysis, as well as a heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system evaluation, and a building envelope survey. In addition to air sampling, a human health risk assessment was performed to evaluate the potential for exposure to site-related air contaminants with respect to the inmate and worker populations. The risk assessment results for the prison facility indicated the potential for significant health risks for the inmate population, possibly reflecting the effects of their confinement and extended exposure to indoor air contaminants, as compared to the prison guard and worker population. Based on the results of the risk assessment, several mitigation measures are recommended to minimize prison population health risks and improve indoor air quality at prison facilities.

Preliminary Mineral Resource Assessment of Selected Mineral Deposit Types in Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ludington, Steve; Orris, Greta J.; Bolm, Karen S.; Peters, Stephen G.; ,

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTION Wise decision-making and management of natural resources depend upon credible and reliable scientific information about the occurrence, distribution, quantity and quality of a country's resource base. Economic development decisions by governments require such information to be part of a Mineral Resource Assessment. Such Mineral Assessments are also useful to private citizens and international investors, consultants, and companies prior to entry and investment in a country. Assessments can also be used to help evaluate the economic risks and impact on the natural environment associated with development of resources. In February 2002, at the request of the Department of State and the then U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan (Robert P. Finn), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) prepared a detailed proposal addressing natural resources issues critical to the reconstruction of Afghanistan. The proposal was refined and updated in December 2003 and was presented as a 5-year work plan to USAID-Kabul in February 2004. USAID-Kabul currently funds this plan and this report presents a part of the preliminary results obligated for fiscal year 2006. A final Preliminary Assessment of the Non Fuel Mineral Resource of Afghanistan will be completed and delivered at the end of fiscal year 2007. Afghanistan has abundant metallic and non-metallic resources, but the potential resources have never been systematically assessed using modern methods. Much of the existing mineral information for Afghanistan was gathered during the 1950s and continued in the late 1980s until the departure of the geologic advisors from the Soviet Union. During this period, there were many mineral-related activities centered on systematic geologic mapping of the country, collection of geochemical and rock samples, implementation of airborne geophysical surveys, and exploration focused on the discovery of large mineral deposits. Many reports, maps, charts, and tables were produced at that time. Some of

Ecological risk assessment of depleted uranium in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clements, W.H.; Kennedy, P.L.; Myers, O.B.

1993-01-01

A preliminary ecological risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the effects of depleted uranium (DU) in the Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) ecosystem and its potential for human health effects. An ecological risk assessment of DU should include the processes of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Ecological risk assessments also should explicitly examine risks incurred by nonhuman as well as human populations, because risk assessments based only on human health do not always protect other species. To begin to assess the potential ecological risk of DU release to the environment we modeled DU transport through the principalmore » components of the aquatic ecosystem at APG. We focused on the APG aquatic system because of the close proximity of the Chesapeake Bay and concerns about potential impacts on this ecosystem. Our objective in using a model to estimate environmental fate of DU is to ultimately reduce the uncertainty about predicted ecological risks due to DU from APG. The model functions to summarize information on the structure and functional properties of the APG aquatic system, to provide an exposure assessment by estimating the fate of DU in the environment, and to evaluate the sources of uncertainty about DU transport.« less

L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

2011-01-01

This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

2012-01-01

BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

44 CFR 206.33 - Preliminary damage assessment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Preliminary damage assessment. 206.33 Section 206.33 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY DISASTER ASSISTANCE FEDERAL DISASTER ASSISTANCE The Declaration Process § 206...

44 CFR 206.33 - Preliminary damage assessment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Preliminary damage assessment. 206.33 Section 206.33 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY DISASTER ASSISTANCE FEDERAL DISASTER ASSISTANCE The Declaration Process § 206...

44 CFR 206.33 - Preliminary damage assessment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Preliminary damage assessment. 206.33 Section 206.33 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY DISASTER ASSISTANCE FEDERAL DISASTER ASSISTANCE The Declaration Process § 206...

44 CFR 206.33 - Preliminary damage assessment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Preliminary damage assessment. 206.33 Section 206.33 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY DISASTER ASSISTANCE FEDERAL DISASTER ASSISTANCE The Declaration Process § 206...

44 CFR 206.33 - Preliminary damage assessment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Preliminary damage assessment. 206.33 Section 206.33 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY DISASTER ASSISTANCE FEDERAL DISASTER ASSISTANCE The Declaration Process § 206...

Human Health Effects, Task Force Assessment, Preliminary Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aronow, Wilbert S.; And Others

Presented in this preliminary report is one of seven assessments conducted by a special task force of Project Clean Air, the Human Health Effects Task Force. The reports summarize assessments of the state of knowledge on various air pollution problems, particularly in California, and make tentative recommendations as to what the University of…

The assessment of seismic hazard for Gori, (Georgia) and preliminary studies of seismic microzonation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gogoladze, Z.; Moscatelli, M.; Giallini, S.; Avalle, A.; Gventsadze, A.; Kvavadze, N.; Tsereteli, N.

2016-12-01

Seismic risk is a crucial issue for South Caucasus, which is the main gateway between Asia and Europe. The goal of this work is to propose new methods and criteria for defining an overall approach aimed at assessing and mitigating seismic risk in Georgia. In this reguard seismic microzonation represents a highly useful tool for seismic risk assessmentin land management, for design of buildings or structures and for emergency planning.Seismic microzonation assessment of local seismic hazard,which is a component of seismicity resulting from specific local characteristics which cause local amplification and soil instability, through identification of zones with seismically homogeneous behavior. This paper presents the results of preliminary study of seismic microzonation of Gori, Georgia. Gori is and is located in the Shida Kartli region and on both sides of Liachvi and Mtkvari rivers, with area of about 135 km2around the Gori fortress. Gori is located in Achara-Trialeti fold-thrust belt, that is tectonically unstable. Half of all earthquakes in Gori area with magnitude M≥3.5 have happened along this fault zone and on basis of damage caused by previous earthquakes, this territory show the highest level of risk (the maximum value of direct losses) in central part of the town. The seismic microzonation map of level 1 for Gori was carried out using: 1) Already available data (i.e., topographic map and boreholes data), 2) Results of new geological surveys and 3) Geophysical measurements (i.e., MASW and noise measurements processed with HVSR technique). Our preliminary results highlight the presence of both stable zones susceptible to local amplifications and unstable zones susceptible to geological instability. Our results are directed to establish set of actions aimed at risk mitigation before initial onset of emergency, and to management of the emergency once the seismic event has occurred. The products obtained, will contain the basic elements of an integrated system

Preliminary Development of an Attrition Risk Assessment Instrument for Secondary Agricultural Educators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenhaw, Laura L.; Brashears, M. Todd; Burris, Scott; Meyers, Courtney; Morrison, Carley C.

2017-01-01

Secondary agricultural education has consistently faced a shortage of teachers for the past several decades. Because there are not enough newly qualified teachers certified annually to fill all the vacancies, attrition must be addressed. The purpose of this research was to develop and pilot test an attrition risk assessment instrument. Items were…

Preliminary Investigation of a Video-Based Stimulus Preference Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snyder, Katie; Higbee, Thomas S.; Dayton, Elizabeth

2012-01-01

Video clips may be an effective format for presenting complex stimuli in preference assessments. In this preliminary study, we evaluated the correspondence between preference hierarchies generated from preference assessments that included either toys or videos of the toys. The top-ranked item corresponded in both assessments for 5 of the 6…

California's forest resources. Preliminary assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1979-01-01

This Preliminary Assessment was prepared in response to the California Forest Resources Assessment and Policy Act of 1977 (FRAPA). This Act was passed to improve the information base upon which State resource administrators formulate forest policy. The Act provides for this report and a full assessment by 1987 and at five year intervals thereafter. Information is presented under the following chapter titles: introduction to the forest resources assessment program; the forest area: a general description; classifications of the forest lands; the watersheds; forest lands and the air resource; fish and wildlife resources; the forested rangelands; the wilderness; forest lands asmore » a recreation resource; the timber resource; wood energy; forest lands and the mineral, fossil fuels, and geothermal energy resources; mathematically modeling California's forest lands; vegetation mapping using remote sensing technology; important forest resources legislation; and, State and cooperative State/Federal forestry programs. Twelve indexes, a bibliography, and glossary are included. (JGB)« less

Revisions to US EPA Superfund Risk and Dose Assessment Models and Guidance - 13403

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walker, Stuart A.

2013-07-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Superfund program's six Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) internet based calculators for risk and dose assessment at Superfund sites are being revised to reflect better science, revisions to existing exposure scenarios and new scenarios, and changes to match up more closely with the EPA chemical regional screening level calculator. A revised version of the 1999 guidance document that provides an overview for the Superfund risk assessment process at radioactively contaminated sites, 'Radiation Risk Assessment At CERCLA Sites: Q and A', is being completed that will reflect Superfund recommended guidance andmore » other technical documents issued over the past 13 years. EPA is also issuing a series of fact sheets in the document 'Superfund Radiation Risk Assessment: A Community Tool-kit'. This presentation would go over those changes that are expected to be finished by this spring. (authors)« less

Conceptual overview and preliminary risk assessment of cryogen use in deep underground mine production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivret, J.; Millar, D. L.; Lyle, G.

2017-12-01

This research conducts a formal risk assessment for cryogenic fueled equipment in underground environments. These include fans, load haul dump units, and trucks. The motivating advantage is zero-emissions production in the subsurface and simultaneous provision of cooling for ultra deep mine workings. The driving force of the engine is the expansion of the reboiled cryogen following flash evaporation using ambient temperature heat. The cold exhaust mixes with warm mine air and cools the latter further. The use of cryogens as ‘fuel’ leads to much increased fuel transport volumes and motivates special considerations for distribution infrastructure and process including: cryogenic storage, distribution, handling, and transfer systems. Detailed specification of parts and equipment, numerical modelling and preparation of design drawings are used to articulate the concept. The conceptual design process reveals new hazards and risks that the mining industry has not yet encountered, which may yet stymie execution. The major unwanted events include the potential for asphyxiation due to oxygen deficient atmospheres, or physical damage to workers due to exposure to sub-cooled liquids and cryogenic gases. The Global Minerals Industry Risk Management (GMIRM) framework incorporates WRAC and Bow-Tie techniques and is used to identify, assess and mitigate risks. These processes operate upon the competing conceptual designs to identify and eliminate high risk options and improve the safety of the lower risk designs.

Consideration of Collision "Consequence" in Satellite Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hejduk, M.; Laporte, F.; Moury, M.; Newman, L.; Shepperd, R.

2017-01-01

Classic risk management theory requires the assessment of both likelihood and consequence of deleterious events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing collision likelihood but holds a completely static solution for collision consequence, treating all potential collisions as essentially equally worrisome. This may be true for the survival of the protected asset, but the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. This study leverages present work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method by which it can be estimated, to a particular confidence level, whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris and how this datum might alter conjunction remediation decisions. The more general question of orbital corridor protection is also addressed, and a preliminary framework presented by which both collision likelihood and consequence can be jointly considered in the risk assessment process.

TCA High Lift Preliminary Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wyatt, G. H.; Polito, R. C.; Yeh, D. T.; Elzey, M. E.; Tran, J. T.; Meredith, Paul T.

1999-01-01

This paper presents a TCA (Technology Concept Airplane) High lift Preliminary Assessment. The topics discussed are: 1) Model Description; 2) Data Repeatability; 3) Effect of Inboard L.E. (Leading Edge) Flap Span; 4) Comparison of 14'x22' TCA-1 With NTF (National Transonic Facility) Modified Ref. H; 5) Comparison of 14'x22' and NTF Ref. H Results; 6) Effect of Outboard Sealed Slat on TCA; 7) TCA Full Scale Build-ups; 8) Full Scale L/D Comparisons; 9) TCA Full Scale; and 10) Touchdown Lift Curves. This paper is in viewgraph form.

Risk Assessment Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): Transforming the Way We Assess Health Risks

PubMed Central

Williams, Pamela R. D.; Dotson, G. Scott; Maier, Andrew

2016-01-01

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors. PMID:22938698

Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

PubMed

Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

2016-04-01

WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional

[Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

PubMed

Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

2016-08-20

Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) 1/2 ; Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2 Health effect level ×2 exposure ratio ×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions

Assessing the Benefit-Risk Profile for Pediatric Implantable Auditory Prostheses.

PubMed

Fisher, Laurel M; Martinez, Amy S; Richmond, Frances J; Krieger, Mark D; Wilkinson, Eric P; Eisenberg, Laurie S

2017-01-01

Children with congenital cochleovestibular abnormalities associated with profound hearing loss have few treatment options if cochlear implantation does not yield benefit. An alternative is the auditory brainstem implant (ABI). Regulatory authority device approvals currently include a structured benefit-risk assessment. Such an assessment, for regulatory purposes or to guide clinical decision making, has not been published, to our knowledge, for the ABI and may lead to the design of a research program that incorporates regulatory authority, family, and professional input. Much structured benefit-risk research has been conducted in the context of drug trials; here we apply this approach to device studies. A qualitative framework organized benefit (speech recognition, parent self-report measures) and risk (surgery- and device-related) information to guide the selection of candidates thought to have potential benefit from ABI. Children with cochleovestibular anatomical abnormalities are challenging for appropriate assessment of candidacy for a cochlear implant or an ABI. While the research is still preliminary, children with an ABI appear to slowly obtain benefit over time. A team of professionals, including audiological, occupational, and educational therapy, affords maximum opportunity for benefit. Pediatric patients who have abnormal anatomy and are candidates for an implantable auditory prosthetic require an individualized, multisystems review. The qualitative benefit-risk assessment used here to characterize the condition, the medical need, potential benefits, risks, and risk management strategies has revealed the complex factors involved. After implantation, continued team support for the family during extensive postimplant therapy is needed to develop maximum auditory skill benefit.

Preliminary psychometric properties of the brief Negative Symptom Scale in youth at Clinical High-Risk for psychosis.

PubMed

Strauss, Gregory P; Chapman, Hannah C

2018-03-01

Preliminary psychometric properties of an adapted version of the Brief Negative Symptom Scale (BNSS) are reported in youth at Clinical High-Risk for psychosis (CHR). Participants included 29 CHR youth who met criteria for a prodromal syndrome on the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS). The adapted BNSS demonstrated excellent internal consistency, convergent validity, and discriminant validity, suggesting that the BNSS has utility for assessing negative symptoms in a CHR population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Operational risk assessment.

PubMed

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

Ecological risk assessment of depleted uranium in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground. Annual report, 1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clements, W.H.; Kennedy, P.L.; Myers, O.B.

1993-03-01

A preliminary ecological risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the effects of depleted uranium (DU) in the Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) ecosystem and its potential for human health effects. An ecological risk assessment of DU should include the processes of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Ecological risk assessments also should explicitly examine risks incurred by nonhuman as well as human populations, because risk assessments based only on human health do not always protect other species. To begin to assess the potential ecological risk of DU release to the environment we modeled DU transport through the principalmore » components of the aquatic ecosystem at APG. We focused on the APG aquatic system because of the close proximity of the Chesapeake Bay and concerns about potential impacts on this ecosystem. Our objective in using a model to estimate environmental fate of DU is to ultimately reduce the uncertainty about predicted ecological risks due to DU from APG. The model functions to summarize information on the structure and functional properties of the APG aquatic system, to provide an exposure assessment by estimating the fate of DU in the environment, and to evaluate the sources of uncertainty about DU transport.« less

Development of a preliminary relative risk model for evaluating regional ecological conditions in the Delaware River Estuary, USA.

PubMed

Iannuzzi, Timothy J; Durda, Judi L; Preziosi, Damian V; Ludwig, David F; Stahl, Ralph G; DeSantis, Amanda A; Hoke, Robert A

2010-01-01

Effective environmental management and restoration of urbanized systems such as the Delaware River Estuary requires a holistic understanding of the relative importance of various stressor-related impacts throughout the watershed, both historical and ongoing. To that end, it is important to involve as many stakeholders as possible in the management process and to develop a system for sharing of scientific data and information, as well as effective technical tools for evaluating and disseminating the data needed to make management decisions. In this study, we describe a preliminary assessment that was undertaken to evaluate the relative risks for the variety of stressors currently operating within the Delaware Estuary using a relative risk model (RRM) framework. This model was constructed using existing data and information on the ecological conditions and stressors in the main-stem Delaware River below the head of tide at Trenton, New Jersey, USA. A large database was developed with pertinent data from a variety of library, scientific, and regulatory sources. Data were compiled, reviewed, and characterized before development of the Estuary-specific RRM. Our primary goals and objectives in developing this preliminary RRM for the Estuary were to 1) determine if the RRM framework can be adapted to a large complex estuarine system such as the Delaware River, 2) identify the issues associated with adapting the model framework to the various management issues and regional areas/habitats of the River, 3) help identify data needs and potential refinements that might be needed to more specifically quantify relative stressor risks in various areas and habitats of the Estuary to better inform future management goals/actions by Stakeholders. The key conclusions of our preliminary assessment are 1) a diverse suite of stressors is likely affecting the ecological conditions of the Delaware Estuary, 2) chemical (toxicants/contaminants) and physical (sedimentation, habitat loss

[LaboRisCh: an algorithm for assessment of health risks due to chemicals in research laboratories and similar workplaces].

PubMed

Strafella, Elisabetta; Bracci, M; Calisti, R; Governa, M; Santarelli, Lory

2008-01-01

Chemical risk assessment in research laboratories is complicated by factors such as the large number of agents to be considered, each present in small quantities, and the very short and erratic periods of exposure, all of which make reliable environmental and biological monitoring particularly difficult and at times impossible. In such environments, a preliminary evaluation procedure based on algorithms would be useful to establish the hazard potential of a given situation and to guide the appropriate intervention. The LaboRisCh model was expressly designed to assess the health risk due to chemicals in research laboratories and similar workplaces. The model is based on the calculation of the value of a synthetic single risk index for each substance and compound found in a laboratory and, subsequently, of a further synthetic single risk index for the whole laboratory or, where required, a section thereof. This makes LaboRisCh a compromise between need for information, ease of use, and resources required for the assessment. The risk index includes several items, chiefly the physical and chemical properties, intrinsic hazard potential, amount, dilution, and time of exposure to each agent; waste management; possible interactions; presence and efficiency of collective and individual protection devices, and staff training in good laboratory practices. The value of the synthetic single index corresponds to one of three areas: no risk (green), possible risk (yellow), and certain risk (red). Preliminary data confirm the model. LaboRisCh appears to be a reliable method for chemical risk assessment in research laboratories and similar workplaces.

Regional risk assessment for contaminated sites part 2: ranking of potentially contaminated sites.

PubMed

Pizzol, Lisa; Critto, Andrea; Agostini, Paola; Marcomini, Antonio

2011-11-01

Environmental risks are traditionally assessed and presented in non spatial ways although the heterogeneity of the contaminants spatial distributions, the spatial positions and relations between receptors and stressors, as well as the spatial distribution of the variables involved in the risk assessment, strongly influence exposure estimations and hence risks. Taking into account spatial variability is increasingly being recognized as a further and essential step in sound exposure and risk assessment. To address this issue an innovative methodology which integrates spatial analysis and a relative risk approach was developed. The purpose of this methodology is to prioritize sites at regional scale where a preliminary site investigation may be required. The methodology aimed at supporting the inventory of contaminated sites was implemented within the spatial decision support sYstem for Regional rIsk Assessment of DEgraded land, SYRIADE, and was applied to the case-study of the Upper Silesia region (Poland). The developed methodology and tool are both flexible and easy to adapt to different regional contexts, allowing the user to introduce the regional relevant parameters identified on the basis of user expertise and regional data availability. Moreover, the used GIS functionalities, integrated with mathematical approaches, allow to take into consideration, all at once, the multiplicity of sources and impacted receptors within the region of concern, to assess the risks posed by all contaminated sites in the region and, finally, to provide a risk-based ranking of the potentially contaminated sites. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

MedlinePlus

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

[Risk assessment comparison of biomechanical overloading of the musculoskeletal system: 10 years' applied experience].

PubMed

Sala, Emma; Bonfiglioli, Roberta; Fostinellil, Jacopo; Tomasi, Cesare; Graziosi, Francesca; Violante, Francesco S; Apostoli, Pietro

2014-01-01

Risk assessment for upper extremity work related muscoloskeletal disorders by applying six methods of ergonomic: a ten years experience. The objective of this research was to verify and validate the multiple step method suggested by SIMLII guidelines and to compare results obtained by use of these methods: Washington State Standard, OCRA, HAL, RULA, OREGE and STRAIN INDEX. 598 workstations for a total of 1800 analysis by different methods were considered, by adopting the following multiple step procedure: prelinminary evaluation by Washington State method and OCRA checklist in all the working stations, RULA or HAL as first level evaluation, OREGE or SI as second level evaluation. The preliminary evaluation resulted negative (risk absent) in the 75% of examined work stations and by using checklist OCRA optimal-acceptable condition was found in 58% by HAL in 92% of analysis, by RULA in 100%, by OREGE in 64%; by SI in 70% of examined working positions. We observed similar evaluation of strain among methods and main differences have been observed in posture and frequency assessment. The preliminary evaluation by State of Washington method appears to be an adequate instrument for identify the working condition at risk. All the adopted methods were in a good agreement in two estreme situations: high risk or absent risk, expecially in absent risk conditions. Level of accordance varied on the basis of their rationale and of the role of their different components so SIML indications about the critical use of biouzechanical methods and about the possible use of more than one of them (considering working chlaracteristics) have been confirmed.

GM Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

Source-term development for a contaminant plume for use by multimedia risk assessment models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whelan, Gene; McDonald, John P.; Taira, Randal Y.

1999-12-01

Multimedia modelers from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) are collaborating to conduct a comprehensive and quantitative benchmarking analysis of four intermedia models: DOE's Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS), EPA's MMSOILS, EPA's PRESTO, and DOE's RESidual RADioactivity (RESRAD). These models represent typical analytically, semi-analytically, and empirically based tools that are utilized in human risk and endangerment assessments for use at installations containing radioactive and/or hazardous contaminants. Although the benchmarking exercise traditionally emphasizes the application and comparison of these models, the establishment of a Conceptual Site Model (CSM) should be viewed with equalmore » importance. This paper reviews an approach for developing a CSM of an existing, real-world, Sr-90 plume at DOE's Hanford installation in Richland, Washington, for use in a multimedia-based benchmarking exercise bet ween MEPAS, MMSOILS, PRESTO, and RESRAD. In an unconventional move for analytically based modeling, the benchmarking exercise will begin with the plume as the source of contamination. The source and release mechanism are developed and described within the context of performing a preliminary risk assessment utilizing these analytical models. By beginning with the plume as the source term, this paper reviews a typical process and procedure an analyst would follow in developing a CSM for use in a preliminary assessment using this class of analytical tool.« less

Schedule Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Greg

2003-01-01

Schedule risk assessments determine the likelihood of finishing on time. Each task in a schedule has a varying degree of probability of being finished on time. A schedule risk assessment quantifies these probabilities by assigning values to each task. This viewgraph presentation contains a flow chart for conducting a schedule risk assessment, and profiles applicable several methods of data analysis.

Wind energy development: methods for assessing risks to birds and bats pre-construction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Katzner, Todd E.; Bennett, Victoria; Miller, Tricia A.; Duerr, Adam E.; Braham, Melissa A.; Hale, Amanda

2016-01-01

Wind power generation is rapidly expanding. Although wind power is a low-carbon source of energy, it can impact negatively birds and bats, either directly through fatality or indirectly by displacement or habitat loss. Pre-construction risk assessment at wind facilities within the United States is usually required only on public lands. When conducted, it generally involves a 3-tier process, with each step leading to more detailed and rigorous surveys. Preliminary site assessment (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Tier 1) is usually conducted remotely and involves evaluation of existing databases and published materials. If potentially at-risk wildlife are present and the developer wishes to continue the development process, then on-site surveys are conducted (Tier 2) to verify the presence of those species and to assess site-specific features (e.g., topography, land cover) that may influence risk from turbines. The next step in the process (Tier 3) involves quantitative or scientific studies to assess the potential risk of the proposed project to wildlife. Typical Tier-3 research may involve acoustic, aural, observational, radar, capture, tracking, or modeling studies, all designed to understand details of risk to specific species or groups of species at the given site. Our review highlights several features lacking from many risk assessments, particularly the paucity of before-and-after-control- impact (BACI) studies involving modeling and a lack of understanding of cumulative effects of wind facilities on wildlife. Both are essential to understand effective designs for pre-construction monitoring and both would help expand risk assessment beyond eagles.

Real-Time Fall Risk Assessment Using Functional Reach Test.

PubMed

Williams, Brian; Allen, Brandon; Hu, Zhen; True, Hanna; Cho, Jin; Harris, Austin; Fell, Nancy; Sartipi, Mina

2017-01-01

Falls are common and dangerous for survivors of stroke at all stages of recovery. The widespread need to assess fall risk in real time for individuals after stroke has generated emerging requests for a reliable, inexpensive, quantifiable, and remote clinical measure/tool. In order to meet these requests, we explore the Functional Reach Test (FRT) for real-time fall risk assessment and implement the FRT function in mStroke , a real-time and automatic mobile health system for poststroke recovery and rehabilitation. mStroke is designed, developed, and delivered as an Application (App) running on a hardware platform consisting of an iPad and one or two wireless body motion sensors based on different mobile health functions. The FRT function in mStroke is extensively tested on healthy human subjects to verify its concept and feasibility. Preliminary performance will be presented to justify the further exploration of the FRT function in mStroke through clinical trials on individuals after stroke, which may guide its ubiquitous exploitation in the near future.

Assessing the seismic risk potential of South America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Smoczyk, Gregory M.

2016-01-01

We present here a simplified approach to quantifying regional seismic risk. The seismic risk for a given region can be inferred in terms of average annual loss (AAL) that represents long-term value of earthquake losses in any one year caused from a long-term seismic hazard. The AAL are commonly measured in the form of earthquake shaking-induced deaths, direct economic impacts or indirect losses caused due to loss of functionality. In the context of South American subcontinent, the analysis makes use of readily available public data on seismicity, population exposure, and the hazard and vulnerability models for the region. The seismic hazard model was derived using available seismic catalogs, fault databases, and the hazard methodologies that are analogous to the U.S. Geological Survey’s national seismic hazard mapping process. The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system’s direct empirical vulnerability functions in terms of fatality and economic impact were used for performing exposure and risk analyses. The broad findings presented and the risk maps produced herein are preliminary, yet they do offer important insights into the underlying zones of high and low seismic risks in the South American subcontinent. A more detailed analysis of risk may be warranted by engaging local experts, especially in some of the high risk zones identified through the present investigation.

Preliminary Assessment of Potential Avian Interactions at Four Proposed Wind Energy Facilities on Vandenberg Air Force Base, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The United States Air Force (USAF) is investigating whether to install wind turbines to provide a supplemental source of electricity at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) near Lompoc, California. As part of that investigation, VAFB sought assistance from the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to provide a preliminary characterization of the potential risk to wildlife resources (mainly birds and bats) from wind turbine installations. With wind power development expanding throughout North America and Europe, concerns have surfaced over the number of bird fatalities associated with wind turbines. Guidelines developed for the wind industry by the Nationalmore » Wind Coordinating Committee (NWCC) recommend assessing potential impacts to birds, bats, and other potentially sensitive resources before construction. The primary purpose of an assessment is to identify potential conflicts with sensitive resources, to assist developers with identifying their permitting needs, and to develop strategies to avoid impacts or to mitigate their effects. This report provides a preliminary (Phase I) biological assessment of potential impacts to birds and bats that might result from construction and operation of the proposed wind energy facilities on VAFB.« less

Large landslides in the Pyrenees: preliminary tasks carried out for a harmonized cross-border risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moya, José; Grandjean, Gilles; Copons, Ramon; Vaunat, Jean; Buxó, Pere; Colas, Bastien; Darrozes, José; Gasc, Muriel; Guinau, Marta; Gutiérrez, Francisco; García, Juan Carlos; Virely, Didier; Crosetto, Michele; Mas, Raül

2017-04-01

Large landslides are recognised as one of the main erosional agents in mountain ranges, having a significant influence on landscape evolution. However, few efforts have been carried out to assess their geomorphological impact from a regional perspective. Regional-scale investigations are also necessary for the reliable evaluation of the associated risks (i.e. for land-use planning). Large landslides are common in the Pyrenees but: 1) their geographic distribution on a regional scale is not well known; 2) their geological and geomorphological controlling factors have been only studied preliminarily; and 3) their state of activity and stability conditions are unknown for most of the cases. Regional analyses of large landslides, as those carried out by Crosta et al. (2013) in the Alps, are rare worldwide. Jarman et al. (2014) conducted a very preliminary analysis in a sector of the Pyrenees. The construction of a cartographic inventory constitutes the basics for such type of studies, which are typically hindered by the lack of cross-border landslide data bases and methodologies. The aim of this contribution is to present the preliminary works carried out for constructing a harmonized inventory of large landslides in the Pyrenees, involving for the first time both sides of the cordillera and the main groups working in landslide risk in France, Spain and Andorra. Methods used for landslide hazard and risk analysis have been compiled and compared, showing a significant divergence, even as regards the terminology. A preliminary cross-border inventory sheet on risk of large landslides has been prepared. It includes specific fields for the assessment of landslide activity (by using complimentary methods such as morpho-stratigraphy, morphometric analysis and remote techniques) and indirect potential costs (that typically overcome direct ones), which usually are neglected in the existing data bases. Crosta, G.B., Frattini, P. and Agliardi, F., 2013. Deep seated gravitational

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

PubMed

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

A preliminary benefit-risk assessment of varenicline in smoking cessation.

PubMed

Cahill, Kate; Stead, Lindsay; Lancaster, Tim

2009-01-01

Varenicline is a recently developed medication for smoking cessation, which has been available on prescription since 2006. It is a selective nicotinic acetylcholine receptor partial agonist, and is designed to reduce withdrawal symptoms and to lessen the rewards of continued smoking. Our objective in this article is to assess the efficacy of varenicline as an aid to smoking cessation and to weigh the potential benefits against the possible risks. We identified ten randomized controlled trials and one cohort study with historical controls. In total there were 7999 participants, 5112 of whom received varenicline. Eight of the trials compared varenicline with placebo for cessation, two compared it with nicotine replacement therapy and one tested extended use for relapse prevention. Three of the varenicline/placebo trials also included a bupropion arm. The recommended dosage of varenicline 1 mg twice daily more than doubled the chances of quitting at 6 months or longer, with a relative risk (RR) compared with placebo of 2.38 (95% CI 2.00, 2.84). It also outperformed bupropion (RR 1.52 [95% CI 1.22, 1.88]) and nicotine replacement (RR 1.31 [95% CI 1.01, 1.71]). A reduced dosage regimen of 1 mg daily also increased cessation (RR 1.88 [95% CI 1.35, 2.60]). In the trials, varenicline significantly reduced craving and other withdrawal symptoms. The most frequent adverse event was nausea, occurring in 30-40% of varenicline users. However, this was generally reported at mild to moderate levels, diminished over time and was associated with attributable discontinuation rates of between 0.6% and 7.6%. Other commonly occurring adverse events included insomnia, abnormal dreams and headache. Serious adverse events were rare, with no treatment-related deaths during the treatment or follow-up phases. Postmarketing surveillance has raised new questions about the safety of varenicline. In February 2008, the US FDA issued a public health advisory note, reporting a possible association

Realization of a service for the long-term risk assessment of diabetes-related complications.

PubMed

Lagani, Vincenzo; Chiarugi, Franco; Manousos, Dimitris; Verma, Vivek; Fursse, Joanna; Marias, Kostas; Tsamardinos, Ioannis

2015-07-01

We present a computerized system for the assessment of the long-term risk of developing diabetes-related complications. The core of the system consists of a set of predictive models, developed through a data-mining/machine-learning approach, which are able to evaluate individual patient profiles and provide personalized risk assessments. Missing data is a common issue in (electronic) patient records, thus the models are paired with a module for the intelligent management of missing information. The system has been deployed and made publicly available as Web service, and it has been fully integrated within the diabetes-management platform developed by the European project REACTION. Preliminary usability tests showed that the clinicians judged the models useful for risk assessment and for communicating the risk to the patient. Furthermore, the system performs as well as the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Risk Engine when both systems are tested on an independent cohort of UK diabetes patients. Our work provides a working example of risk-stratification tool that is (a) specific for diabetes patients, (b) able to handle several different diabetes related complications, (c) performing as well as the widely known UKPDS Risk Engine on an external validation cohort. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

PubMed

Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

2016-01-01

The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it tomore » be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.« less

Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

2011-01-01

This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.

Preliminary Safeguards Assessment for the Pebble-Bed Fluoride High-Temperature Reactor (PB-FHR) Concept

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Disser, Jay; Arthur, Edward; Lambert, Janine

2016-09-01

This report examines a preliminary design for a pebble bed fluoride salt-cooled high temperature reactor (PB-FHR) concept, assessing it from an international safeguards perspective. Safeguards features are defined, in a preliminary fashion, and suggestions are made for addressing further nuclear materials accountancy needs.

Adapting Interpersonal Psychotherapy for Older Adults at Risk for Suicide: Preliminary Findings

PubMed Central

Heisel, Marnin J.; Duberstein, Paul R.; Talbot, Nancy L.; King, Deborah A.; Tu, Xin M.

2010-01-01

We report preliminary findings of the first ever study testing a 16-week course of Interpersonal Psychotherapy (IPT) modified for older outpatients at elevated risk for suicide. Participants were referred from inpatient and outpatient medicine and mental health services. Psychotherapy sessions took place in a therapist’s office in a teaching hospital. Twelve adults 60 years or older (M=70.5, SD=6.1) with current thoughts of suicide (suicide ideation) or a wish to die (death ideation) or with recent self-injurious behavior were recruited into weekly sessions of IPT; one was subsequently excluded due to severe cognitive impairment. Participants completed measures of suicide ideation, death ideation, and depressive symptom severity at pre-treatment, mid-treatment, post-treatment, and at 3-month follow-up periods, and measures of therapeutic process variables. Preliminary findings of this uncontrolled pre-post-treatment study support the feasibility of recruiting and retaining older adults at-risk for suicide into psychotherapy research and suggest that adapted IPT is tolerable and safe. Findings indicate a substantial reduction in participant suicide ideation, death ideation, and depressive symptoms; controlled trials are needed to further evaluate these findings. We discuss implications for clinical care with at-risk older adults. PMID:20574546

A Preliminary Report of National Estimates from the National Assessment of Educational Progress, 1992 Mathematics Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elliott, Emerson J., Comp.

This report contains preliminary results from the 1992 mathematics assessment by the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) of nationally representative samples of about 26,000 4th, 8th and 12th grade students in 1,500 public schools and private schools in 44 states; and compares data to findings from the 1990 NAEP mathematics tests.…

Chemical Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

Satellite Power Systems (SPS): Concept development and evaluation program: Preliminary assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

A preliminary assessment of a potential Satellite Power System (SPS) is provided. The assessment includes discussion of technical and economic feasibility; the effects of microwave power transmission beams on biological, ecological, and electromagnetic systems; the impact of SPS construction, deployment, and operations on the biosphere and on society; and the merits of SPS compared to other future energy alternatives.

43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... pathways. (1) The authorized official shall make a preliminary identification of potential exposure pathways to facilitate identification of resources at risk. (2) Factors to be considered in this... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include, as...

43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... pathways. (1) The authorized official shall make a preliminary identification of potential exposure pathways to facilitate identification of resources at risk. (2) Factors to be considered in this... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include, as...

43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... pathways. (1) The authorized official shall make a preliminary identification of potential exposure pathways to facilitate identification of resources at risk. (2) Factors to be considered in this... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include, as...

43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... pathways. (1) The authorized official shall make a preliminary identification of potential exposure pathways to facilitate identification of resources at risk. (2) Factors to be considered in this... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include, as...

43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... pathways. (1) The authorized official shall make a preliminary identification of potential exposure pathways to facilitate identification of resources at risk. (2) Factors to be considered in this... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include, as...

A secondstep in development of a checklist for screening risk for violence in acute psychiatric patients: evaluation of interrater reliability of the Preliminary Scheme 33.

PubMed

Bjørkly, Stål; Moger, Tron A

2007-12-01

The Acute Project is a research project conducted on acute psychiatric admission wards in Norway. The objective is to develop and validate a structured, easy-to-use screening checklist for assessment of risk for violence in patients both during their stay in the ward and after discharge. The Preliminary Scheme 33 is a 33-item screening checklist with content domain inspired by the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management Scheme (HCR-20), the Brøset Violence Checklist, and eight risk factors extracted from the literature on risk assessment. The Preliminary Scheme 33 was designed and tested in two steps by a research group which includes the authors. The common aim of both steps was to develop this into a time economical, reliable, and valid checklist. In the first step in 2006 the predictive validity of the individual items was tested. The present work presents results from the second step, a study conducted to assess the interrater reliability of the 33 items. Eight clinicians working in an acute psychiatric unit volunteered to be raters and were trained to score the 33 items on a three-point scale in relation to 15 clinical vignettes, which contained information from 15 acute psychiatric patients' files. Analysis showed high interrater reliability for the total score with an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of .86 (95% CI: 0.74-0.94). However, a substantial proportion of the items had medium to low ICCs. Consequences of this finding for further development of these items into a brief screen are discussed.

Flood risk assessment of potential casualties in a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Englhardt, Johanna; Boekhorst, Ellen; Ward, Philip; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Flood risk assessment of potential casualties in a global scale. M. Andres Diaz-Loaiza (1), Johanna Englhardt (1), Ellen de Boekhorst (1), Philip J. Ward (1) and Jeroen Aerts (1) (1) Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands. andres.diazloaiza@vu.nl Floods are one of the most dangerous natural disasters for humanity, affecting many people every year. Quantitative risk models on a global scale are nowadays available tools for institutions and actors in charge of risk management in order to plan possible mitigation measures in case of flood risk events. Many of these models have been focus on potential economic damage, population and GDP exposure, but the potential casualties assessment has been left aside. This is partially due to the complexity of the problem itself, in which several variables like the age of a pedestrian (drag/exposed to a flood event), or his weight and swimming experience can be decisive for the complete understanding of the problem. In the present work is presented the advances for the development of a methodology in order to include in the GLOFRIS model a new indicator in case of flood risk events. Preliminary analysis relating the GDP with the potential casualties shows that undeveloped countries have more susceptibility to loss of life in case of flood events. This because the GDP indicator evidences as well the protection measures available in a country.

Landslide risk assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

1983-01-01

Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

Preliminary lung cancer risk assessment of exposure to radon progeny for Transylvania, Romania.

PubMed

Truta-Popa, Lucia-Adina; Dinu, Alexandra; Dicu, Tiberius; Szacsvai, Kinga; Cosma, Constantin; Hofmann, Werner

2010-09-01

The objective of the present study was to assess the lung cancer risk induced by exposures to radon progeny of people living in some areas of Transylvania, Romania. Indoor radon concentrations were measured in 667 dwellings of Stei area, Cluj, Bistrita-Nasaud, Sibiu, and Alba counties. Measurements were performed using CR-39 track detectors, exposed for a minimum of 3 mo. Average annual radon concentrations were 232, 114, 71, 62, and 161 Bq m for Stei area, Cluj, Bistrita-Nasaud, Sibiu, and Alba, respectively. The linear risk model of Darby was used to simulate the dose-effect relationship and relative lung cancer risk at low doses of alpha particles specific to residential radon exposures. Predicted relative risks at the measured exposure levels, together with information on the total number of reported lung cancer deaths and the number of people living in these regions, enabled us to estimate the fraction of lung cancer cases in each area that is attributable to radon. These percentages are 16.67% for Stei area, 9.09% for Cluj, 5.66% for Bistrita-Nasaud, 4.76% for Sibiu, and 12.28% for Alba county among lifetime non-smokers. Assuming that the smoking rates are similar for the investigated regions (10.72% smokers among men and 5.95% among women), around 64 to 69% of the total number of annual lung cancer deaths, stratified by sex, would be attributed to radon and occur among smoking male population, and around 35 to 44% would be attributed to radon and occur among smoking female population.

40 CFR 300.305 - Phase II-Preliminary assessment and initiation of action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 27 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Phase II-Preliminary assessment and initiation of action. 300.305 Section 300.305 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... the OSC is informed of their activities in natural resource damage assessment that may affect response...

A Preliminary Assessment of Mouflon Abundance at the Kahuku Unit of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

of Mouflon Abundance at the Kahuku Unit of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting...Preliminary Assessment of Mouflon Abundance at the Kahuku Unit of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM...of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park in November 2004. Photograph by Ben Kawakami Jr. A Preliminary Assessment of Mouflon Abundance at the Kahuku Unit

Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment of flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.

2009-12-01

Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the

A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tortorelli, J.P.

1995-08-01

A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactivemore » materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance.« less

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS - RESIDUAL RISK ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-pollutant impacts of air toxics emissions on human health and the environment. Details on the assessment process and methodologies can be found in EPA's Residual Risk Report to Congress issued in March of 1999 (see web site). To assess the health risks imposed by air toxics emissions from Coke Ovens to determine if control technology standards previously established are adequately protecting public health.

A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

2009-09-01

Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

2007-01-01

Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

Biota Modeling in EPA's Preliminary Remediation Goal and Dose Compliance Concentration Calculators for Use in EPA Superfund Risk Assessment: Explanation of Intake Rate Derivation, Transfer Factor Compilation, and Mass Loading Factor Sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manning, Karessa L.; Dolislager, Fredrick G.; Bellamy, Michael B.

The Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) calculators are screening level tools that set forth Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recommended approaches, based upon currently available information with respect to risk assessment, for response actions at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites, commonly known as Superfund. The screening levels derived by the PRG and DCC calculators are used to identify isotopes contributing the highest risk and dose as well as establish preliminary remediation goals. Each calculator has a residential gardening scenario and subsistence farmer exposure scenarios that require modeling of the transfer of contaminants frommore » soil and water into various types of biota (crops and animal products). New publications of human intake rates of biota; farm animal intakes of water, soil, and fodder; and soil to plant interactions require updates be implemented into the PRG and DCC exposure scenarios. Recent improvements have been made in the biota modeling for these calculators, including newly derived biota intake rates, more comprehensive soil mass loading factors (MLFs), and more comprehensive soil to tissue transfer factors (TFs) for animals and soil to plant transfer factors (BV's). New biota have been added in both the produce and animal products categories that greatly improve the accuracy and utility of the PRG and DCC calculators and encompass greater geographic diversity on a national and international scale.« less

Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment provide EPA staff with guidance for developing and using risk assessments. They also provide basic information to the public about the Agency's risk assessment methods.

Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at 'high risk': a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools.

PubMed

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-12-01

Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes(®), Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at 'high risk' followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Microbial Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

2009-01-01

Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

Identification of potentially hazardous human gene products in GMO risk assessment.

PubMed

Bergmans, Hans; Logie, Colin; Van Maanen, Kees; Hermsen, Harm; Meredyth, Michelle; Van Der Vlugt, Cécile

2008-01-01

Genetically modified organisms (GMOs), e.g. viral vectors, could threaten the environment if by their release they spread hazardous gene products. Even in contained use, to prevent adverse consequences, viral vectors carrying genes from mammals or humans should be especially scrutinized as to whether gene products that they synthesize could be hazardous in their new context. Examples of such potentially hazardous gene products (PHGPs) are: protein toxins, products of dominant alleles that have a role in hereditary diseases, gene products and sequences involved in genome rearrangements, gene products involved in immunomodulation or with an endocrine function, gene products involved in apoptosis, activated proto-oncogenes. For contained use of a GMO that carries a construct encoding a PHGP, the precautionary principle dictates that safety measures should be applied on a "worst case" basis, until the risks of the specific case have been assessed. The potential hazard of cloned genes can be estimated before empirical data on the actual GMO become available. Preliminary data may be used to focus hazard identification and risk assessment. Both predictive and empirical data may also help to identify what further information is needed to assess the risk of the GMO. A two-step approach, whereby a PHGP is evaluated for its conceptual dangers, then checked by data bank searches, is delineated here.

Strategic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Assessments of direct human exposure: the approach of EU risk assessments compared to scenario-based risk assessment.

PubMed

Wormuth, Matthias; Demou, Evangelia; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

2007-08-01

The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high-production-volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario-based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst-case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

PubMed

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment.

PubMed

Nicol, Sam; Chadès, Iadine

2017-01-01

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparatively rare. A risk-based approach has many potential advantages, including improved prediction and attribution of cause and effect; sensitivity analysis; continual learning; and optimal resource allocation. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to quantify the likelihood and consequence of non-compliance of new projects based on the occurrence probabilities of a set of expert-defined features. The BBN incorporates expert knowledge and continually improves its predictions based on new data as it is collected. We use simulation to explore the trade-off between the number of data points and the prediction accuracy of the BBN, and find that the BBN could predict risk with 90% accuracy using approximately 1000 data points. Although a further pilot test with real project data is required, our results suggest that a BBN is a promising method to monitor overall risks posed by development within an existing EIA process given a modest investment in data collection.

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

PubMed

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

"Winsight"™ Assessment System: Preliminary Theory of Action. Research Report. ETS RR-17-26

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wylie, E. Caroline

2017-01-01

The "Winsight"™Assessment System integrates summative, interim (including both benchmark assessments and testlets), and formative assessment components initially focused on mathematics and English language arts (ELA) in Grades 3-8 and high school.This report provides a preliminary theory of action for the Winsight Assessment System. A…

Principles in genetic risk assessment.

PubMed

Baptista, Pedro Viana

2005-03-01

Risk assessment constitutes an essential component of genetic counseling and testing, and the genetic risk should be estimated as accurately as possible for individual and family decision making. All relevant information retrieved from population studies and pedigree and genetic testing enhances the accuracy of the assessment of an individual's genetic risk. This review will focus on the following general aspects implicated in risk assessment: the increasing genetic information regarding disease; complex traits versus Mendelian disorders; and the influence of the environment and disease susceptibility. The influence of these factors on risk assessment will be discussed.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

A preliminary study of screening for risk of autism in children with fragile X syndrome: testing two risk cut-offs for the Checklist for Autism in Toddlers.

PubMed

Scambler, D J; Hepburn, S L; Hagerman, R J; Rogers, S J

2007-04-01

Risk criteria for the Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (CHAT) and modified risk criteria (i.e. the Denver Criteria) were compared in a group of children with fragile X syndrome (FXS) and autism. Participants were 17 children aged 2-4 years with DNA confirmation of FXS. Four children had autism and 13 children did not. Preliminary findings regarding the sensitivity and specificity of the CHAT for detecting risk for autism in children with FXS are as follows: using the original CHAT risk criteria, sensitivity and specificity were 50% and 100%, respectively; and using the Denver Criteria, sensitivity and specificity were 75% and 92%, respectively. The CHAT and the Denver Criteria resulted in preliminary findings suggesting high levels of sensitivity to autism in children with FXS.

Distribution and preliminary exposure assessment of bisphenol AF (BPAF) in various environmental matrices around a manufacturing plant in China.

PubMed

Song, Shanjun; Ruan, Ting; Wang, Thanh; Liu, Runzeng; Jiang, Guibin

2012-12-18

Increasing attention has been paid to bisphenol A and bisphenol (BP) analogues due to high production volumes, wide usage and potential adverse effects. Bisphenol AF (BPAF) is considered a new bisphenol analogue which is used as raw material in plastic industry, but little is known about its occurrence in the environment and the potential associated risk. In this work, BPAF levels and environmental distribution were reported in samples collected around a manufacturing plant and a preliminary exposure risk assessment to local residents was conducted. BPAF was detected in most of the samples, with levels in river ranging between preliminary BPAF exposure assessment based on the CSOIL model suggested that children could have higher intake of BPAF than adults through inhalation of soils, dermal exposure by soils contact and bathing with well water.

Preliminary feasibility assessment for Earth-to-space electromagnetic (Railgun) launchers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rice, E. E.; Miller, L. A.; Earhart, R. W.

1982-01-01

An Earth to space electromagnetic (railgun) launcher (ESRL) for launching material into space was studied. Potential ESRL applications were identified and initially assessed to formulate preliminary system requirements. The potential applications included nuclear waste disposal in space, Earth orbital applications, deep space probe launchers, atmospheric research, and boost of chemical rockets. The ESRL system concept consisted of two separate railgun launcher tubes (one at 20 deg from the horizontal for Earth orbital missions, the other vertical for solar system escape disposal missions) powered by a common power plant. Each 2040 m launcher tube is surrounded by 10,200 homopolar generator/inductor units to transmit the power to the walls. Projectile masses are 6500 kg for Earth orbital missions and 2055 kg for nuclear waste disposal missions. For the Earth orbital missions, the projectile requires a propulsion system, leaving an estimated payload mass of 650 kg. For the nuclear waste disposal in space mission, the high level waste mass was estimated at 250 kg. This preliminary assessment included technical, environmental, and economic analyses.

Principles in genetic risk assessment

PubMed Central

Baptista, Pedro Viana

2005-01-01

Risk assessment constitutes an essential component of genetic counseling and testing, and the genetic risk should be estimated as accurately as possible for individual and family decision making. All relevant information retrieved from population studies and pedigree and genetic testing enhances the accuracy of the assessment of an individual's genetic risk. This review will focus on the following general aspects implicated in risk assessment: the increasing genetic information regarding disease; complex traits versus Mendelian disorders; and the influence of the environment and disease susceptibility. The influence of these factors on risk assessment will be discussed. PMID:18360538

Technology Education Teacher Preparation for Students at Risk. Preliminary Report of the Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young-Hawkins, La Verne; DeLeon, John

A study was conducted to determine the role of technology teacher education programs in preparing new and experienced teachers for teaching and managing programs for students at risk of dropping out of school. The first part of the study focused on the methods of data collection and preliminary findings. Data were gathered through a…

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

PubMed

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

PubMed Central

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

Systematic risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructure elements - Oil and Gas subsectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gheorghiu, A.-D.; Ozunu, A.

2012-04-01

The concern for the protection of critical infrastructure has been rapidly growing in the last few years in Europe. The level of knowledge and preparedness in this field is beginning to develop in a lawfully organized manner, for the identification and designation of critical infrastructure elements of national and European interest. Oil and gas production, refining, treatment, storage and transmission by pipelines facilities, are considered European critical infrastructure sectors, as per Annex I of the Council Directive 2008/114/EC of 8 December 2008 on the identification and designation of European critical infrastructures and the assessment of the need to improve their protection. Besides identifying European and national critical infrastructure elements, member states also need to perform a risk analysis for these infrastructure items, as stated in Annex II of the above mentioned Directive. In the field of risk assessment, there are a series of acknowledged and successfully used methods in the world, but not all hazard identification and assessment methods and techniques are suitable for a given site, situation, or type of hazard. As Theoharidou, M. et al. noted (Theoharidou, M., P. Kotzanikolaou, and D. Gritzalis 2009. Risk-Based Criticality Analysis. In Critical Infrastructure Protection III. Proceedings. Third Annual IFIP WG 11.10 International Conference on Critical Infrastructure Protection. Hanover, New Hampshire, USA, March 23-25, 2009: revised selected papers, edited by C. Palmer and S. Shenoi, 35-49. Berlin: Springer.), despite the wealth of knowledge already created, there is a need for simple, feasible, and standardized criticality analyses. The proposed systematic risk assessment methodology includes three basic steps: the first step (preliminary analysis) includes the identification of hazards (including possible natural hazards) for each installation/section within a given site, followed by a criterial analysis and then a detailed analysis step

A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment

PubMed Central

Chadès, Iadine

2017-01-01

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparatively rare. A risk-based approach has many potential advantages, including improved prediction and attribution of cause and effect; sensitivity analysis; continual learning; and optimal resource allocation. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to quantify the likelihood and consequence of non-compliance of new projects based on the occurrence probabilities of a set of expert-defined features. The BBN incorporates expert knowledge and continually improves its predictions based on new data as it is collected. We use simulation to explore the trade-off between the number of data points and the prediction accuracy of the BBN, and find that the BBN could predict risk with 90% accuracy using approximately 1000 data points. Although a further pilot test with real project data is required, our results suggest that a BBN is a promising method to monitor overall risks posed by development within an existing EIA process given a modest investment in data collection. PMID:28686651

The Anaclitic-Introjective Depression Assessment: Development and preliminary validity of an observer-rated measure.

PubMed

Rost, Felicitas; Luyten, Patrick; Fonagy, Peter

2018-03-01

The two-configurations model developed by Blatt and colleagues offers a comprehensive conceptual and empirical framework for understanding depression. This model suggests that depressed patients struggle, at different developmental levels, with issues related to dependency (anaclitic issues) or self-definition (introjective issues), or a combination of both. This paper reports three studies on the development and preliminary validation of the Anaclitic-Introjective Depression Assessment, an observer-rated assessment tool of impairments in relatedness and self-definition in clinical depression based on the item pool of the Shedler-Westen Assessment Procedure. Study 1 describes the development of the measure using expert consensus rating and Q-methodology. Studies 2 and 3 report the assessment of its psychometric properties, preliminary reliability, and validity in a sample of 128 patients diagnosed with treatment-resistant depression. Four naturally occurring clusters of depressed patients were identified using Q-factor analysis, which, overall, showed meaningful and theoretically expected relationships with anaclitic/introjective prototypes as formulated by experts, as well as with clinical, social, occupational, global, and relational functioning. Taken together, findings reported in this paper provide preliminary evidence for the reliability and validity of the Anaclitic-Introjective Depression Assessment, an observer-rated measure that allows the detection of important nuanced differentiations between and within anaclitic and introjective depression. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Preliminary Testing of a Program to Prevent Type 2 Diabetes among High-Risk Youth.(research Papers)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grey, Margaret; Berry, Diane; Davidson, Maryanne; Galasso, Pam; Gustafson, Elaine; Melkus, Gail

2004-01-01

Type 2 diabetes is increasing among youth, with minority youth at highest risk. This preliminary study tested the feasibility of a school-based program to prevent type 2 diabetes in youth at risk. Forty-one participants (age 12.6 [+ or -] 1.1 years; 63% female, 51% African American, 44% Hispanic, and 5% Caucasian) were randomly assigned to one of…

Risk assessment and prioritization

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-01-01

The first step to take in order to prevent and minimize the dangers of disasters or attacks, is risk assessment, followed closely by prioritization. This article discusses key vulnerability and risk assessment that Volpe Center has conducted in suppo...

FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RISKS OF ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Framework for Children's Health Risk Assessment report can serve as a resource on children's health risk assessment and it addresses the need to provide a comprehensive and consistent framework for considering children in risk assessments at EPA. This framework lays out the process, points to existing published sources for more detailed information on life stage-specific considerations, and includes web links to specific online publications and relevant Agency science policy papers, guidelines and guidance. The document emphasizes the need to take into account the potential exposures to environmental agents during preconception and all stages of development and focuses on the relevant adverse health outcomes that may occur as a result of such exposures. This framework is not an Agency guideline, but rather describes the overall structure and the components considered important for children's health risk assessment. The document describes an approach that includes problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization, and also builds on Agency experience assessing risk to susceptible populations. The problem formulation step focuses on the life stage-specific nature of the analysis to include scoping and screening level questions for hazard characterization, dose response and exposure assessment. The risk characterization step recognizes the need to consider life stage-specific risks and explicitly describes the uncertainties and variability in the d

Screening for Malnutrition in Community Dwelling Older Japanese: Preliminary Development and Evaluation of the Japanese Nutritional Risk Screening Tool (NRST).

PubMed

Htun, N C; Ishikawa-Takata, K; Kuroda, A; Tanaka, T; Kikutani, T; Obuchi, S P; Hirano, H; Iijima, K

2016-02-01

Early and effective screening for age-related malnutrition is an essential part of providing optimal nutritional care to older populations. This study was performed to evaluate the adaptation of the original SCREEN II questionnaire (Seniors in the Community: Risk Evaluation for Eating and Nutrition, version II) for use in Japan by examining its measurement properties and ability to predict nutritional risk and sarcopenia in community-dwelling older Japanese people. The ultimate objective of this preliminary validation study is to develop a license granted full Japanese version of the SCREEN II. The measurement properties and predictive validity of the NRST were examined in this cross-sectional study of 1921 community-dwelling older Japanese people. Assessments included medical history, and anthropometric and serum albumin measurements. Questions on dietary habits that corresponded to the original SCREEN II were applied to Nutritional Risk Screening Tool (NRST) scoring system. Nutritional risk was assessed by the Geriatric Nutrition Risk Index (GNRI) and the short form of the Mini-Nutritional Assessment (MNA-SF). Sarcopenia was diagnosed according to the criteria of the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People. The nutritional risk prevalences determined by the GNRI and MNA-SF were 5.6% and 34.7%, respectively. The prevalence of sarcopenia was 13.3%. Mean NRST scores were significantly lower in the nutritionally at-risk than in the well-nourished groups. Concurrent validity analysis showed significant correlations between NRST scores and both nutritional risk parameters (GNRI or MNA-SF) and sarcopenia. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) of NRST for the prediction of nutritional risk were 0.635 and 0.584 as assessed by GNRI and MNA-SF, respectively. AUCs for the prediction of sarcopenia were 0.602 (NRST), 0.655 (age-integrated NRST), and 0.676 (age and BMI-integrated NRST). These results indicate that the NRST is a

Interactive Block Games for Assessing Children's Cognitive Skills: Design and Preliminary Evaluation.

PubMed

Lee, Kiju; Jeong, Donghwa; Schindler, Rachael C; Hlavaty, Laura E; Gross, Susan I; Short, Elizabeth J

2018-01-01

Background: This paper presents design and results from preliminary evaluation of Tangible Geometric Games (TAG-Games) for cognitive assessment in young children. The TAG-Games technology employs a set of sensor-integrated cube blocks, called SIG-Blocks, and graphical user interfaces for test administration and real-time performance monitoring. TAG-Games were administered to children from 4 to 8 years of age for evaluating preliminary efficacy of this new technology-based approach. Methods: Five different sets of SIG-Blocks comprised of geometric shapes, segmented human faces, segmented animal faces, emoticons, and colors, were used for three types of TAG-Games, including Assembly, Shape Matching, and Sequence Memory. Computational task difficulty measures were defined for each game and used to generate items with varying difficulty. For preliminary evaluation, TAG-Games were tested on 40 children. To explore the clinical utility of the information assessed by TAG-Games, three subtests of the age-appropriate Wechsler tests (i.e., Block Design, Matrix Reasoning, and Picture Concept) were also administered. Results: Internal consistency of TAG-Games was evaluated by the split-half reliability test. Weak to moderate correlations between Assembly and Block Design, Shape Matching and Matrix Reasoning, and Sequence Memory and Picture Concept were found. The computational measure of task complexity for each TAG-Game showed a significant correlation with participants' performance. In addition, age-correlations on TAG-Game scores were found, implying its potential use for assessing children's cognitive skills autonomously.

Interactive Block Games for Assessing Children's Cognitive Skills: Design and Preliminary Evaluation

PubMed Central

Lee, Kiju; Jeong, Donghwa; Schindler, Rachael C.; Hlavaty, Laura E.; Gross, Susan I.; Short, Elizabeth J.

2018-01-01

Background: This paper presents design and results from preliminary evaluation of Tangible Geometric Games (TAG-Games) for cognitive assessment in young children. The TAG-Games technology employs a set of sensor-integrated cube blocks, called SIG-Blocks, and graphical user interfaces for test administration and real-time performance monitoring. TAG-Games were administered to children from 4 to 8 years of age for evaluating preliminary efficacy of this new technology-based approach. Methods: Five different sets of SIG-Blocks comprised of geometric shapes, segmented human faces, segmented animal faces, emoticons, and colors, were used for three types of TAG-Games, including Assembly, Shape Matching, and Sequence Memory. Computational task difficulty measures were defined for each game and used to generate items with varying difficulty. For preliminary evaluation, TAG-Games were tested on 40 children. To explore the clinical utility of the information assessed by TAG-Games, three subtests of the age-appropriate Wechsler tests (i.e., Block Design, Matrix Reasoning, and Picture Concept) were also administered. Results: Internal consistency of TAG-Games was evaluated by the split-half reliability test. Weak to moderate correlations between Assembly and Block Design, Shape Matching and Matrix Reasoning, and Sequence Memory and Picture Concept were found. The computational measure of task complexity for each TAG-Game showed a significant correlation with participants' performance. In addition, age-correlations on TAG-Game scores were found, implying its potential use for assessing children's cognitive skills autonomously. PMID:29868520

Using risk assessment in periodontics.

PubMed

Woodman, Alan J

2014-08-01

Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

Presence and risk assessment of pharmaceuticals in surface water and drinking water.

PubMed

Sanderson, Hans

2011-01-01

Trace amounts of pharmaceuticals have been detected in surface waters in the nano- to microgram per liter range, and in drinking water in the nanogram/L range. The environmental risks of pharmaceuticals in surface waters have been evaluated and generally found to be low if the wastewater is treated before release to the environment. The human health risks of trace amounts of pharmaceuticals in drinking water have however not been evaluated in any great depth. Preliminary screening level assessments suggest risk to be low--but the public and decision-makers are concerned and would like the matter investigated more thoroughly, especially with regards to mixture effects, chronic long-term effects and sensitive sub-populations. The World Health Organization is currently evaluating the need for credible health based guidance associated with low concentrations of pharmaceuticals in drinking water. The aim of this paper is to summarize the state-of-the-science and the ongoing international debate on the topic.

Preliminary environmental assessment for the Satellite Power System (SPS). Volume 2: Detailed assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

Volume 2 provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of the Satellite Power System (SPS) on the environment in a technically detailed format more suitable for peer review than the executive summary of Vol. 1. It serves to integrate and assimilate information that has appeared in documents referenced herein and to focus on issues that are purely environmental. It discloses the state-of-knowledge as perceived from recently completed DOE-sponsored studies and defines prospective research and study programs that can advance the state-of-knowledge and provide an expanded data base for use in an assessment planned for 1980. Alternatives for research that may be implemented in order to achieve this advancement are also discussed.

The two-dimensional exposure rainfall-runoff assessment (TERRA)watershed model and its use in the FIFRA ecological risk assessment for antimicrobial uses of copper. FIFRA Scientific Advisory Panel Meeting; October 25-26.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The USEPA Office of Pesticide Programs (OPP) presented preliminary risk assessments of the two antimicrobial uses of copper during a public hearing held October 25-26, 2011 in Arlington, VA to a Scientific Advisory Panel convened the by the agency. In addition presentations were made on use of the ...

Development and Preliminary Reliability of a Multitasking Assessment for Executive Functioning After Concussion

PubMed Central

Radomski, Mary Vining; Davidson, Leslie Freeman; Finkelstein, Marsha; Weightman, Margaret M.; McCulloch, Karen L.; Scherer, Matthew R.

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES. Executive functioning deficits may result from concussion. The Charge of Quarters (CQ) Duty Task is a multitask assessment designed to assess executive functioning in servicemembers after concussion. In this article, we discuss the rationale and process used in the development of the CQ Duty Task and present pilot data from the preliminary evaluation of interrater reliability (IRR). METHOD. Three evaluators observed as 12 healthy participants performed the CQ Duty Task and measured performance using various metrics. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) quantified IRR. RESULTS. The ICC for task completion was .94. ICCs for other assessment metrics were variable. CONCLUSION. Preliminary IRR data for the CQ Duty Task are encouraging, but further investigation is needed to improve IRR in some domains. Lessons learned in the development of the CQ Duty Task could benefit future test development efforts with populations other than the military. PMID:25005507

Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aidala, Jim

1985-01-01

Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

PubMed Central

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

Space Radiation Risk Assessment for Future Lunar Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ponomarev, Artem; Atwell, Bill; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2007-01-01

For lunar exploration mission design, radiation risk assessments require the understanding of future space radiation environments in support of resource management decisions, operational planning, and a go/no-go decision. The future GCR flux was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which was coupled with the estimated neutron monitor rate from the Climax monitor using a statistical model. A probability distribution function for solar particle event (SPE) occurrence was formed from proton fluence measurements of SPEs occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Large proton SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice for which the fluences are greater than 2 10(exp 9) protons/sq cm for energies greater than 30 MeV, were also combined to extend the probability calculation for high level of proton fluences. The probability with which any given proton fluence level of a SPE will be exceeded during a space mission of defined duration was then calculated. Analytic energy spectra of SPEs at different ranks of the integral fluences were constructed over broad energy ranges extending out to GeV, and representative exposure levels were analyzed at those fluences. For the development of an integrated strategy for radiation protection on lunar exploration missions, effective doses at various points inside a spacecraft were calculated with detailed geometry models representing proposed transfer vehicle and habitat concepts. Preliminary radiation risk assessments from SPE and GCR were compared for various configuration concepts of radiation shelter in exploratory-class spacecrafts.

GAR Global Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

Probabilistic Anthrax Risk Assessment Tool v. 1.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knowlton, Robert; Hubbard, Josh

PARAT is a human health risk assessment tool for quantifying the uncertainty associated with inhalational exposures to Bacillus anthracis (Ba), which is the causative agent for contracting anthrax. The tool has a unique set of aerosol transport algorithms to account for indoor-outdoor deposition, re-aerosolization, building infiltration/exfiltration, and ventilation system effects, all of which are coded to preserve mass. PARAT is currently implemented within a Microsoft Excel application along with the Crystal Ball third-party add-on software that provides a Monte Carlo simulation technique for quantifying uncertainty in model predictions. The tool predicts both air and surface concentrations, as well as themore » fraction of the population that would contract a lethal dose from exposure to Ba. The tool can be used by decision makers to support Preliminary Remediaiton Goals (PRGs) to guide sampling and decontamination decisions after a release of Ba. Currently the de facto standard for recovery from a Ba release is a sampling protocol whereby all of the surface samples sent to a laboratory have to meet the requirement of “no culturable growth” on the media. This could lead to some very costly cleanups, as was evidenced following the 2001 anthrax letter attack responses. So PARAT may provide decision makers and risk assessors the ability to negotiate risk-based endpoints for the recovery process.« less

A Preliminary Examination of Specific Risk Assessment for Sexual Offenders against Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Proeve, Michael

2009-01-01

Specific risk questions concerning sexual offending, such as risk of offending against male victims given identified female victims, have seldom been discussed in the child sexual abuse literature. Two approaches to specific risk questions are described: (a) conditional probability calculations, and (b) the development of risk assessment…

Assessing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment Models (BOSC CSS meeting)

EPA Science Inventory

In vitro assays are increasingly being used in risk assessments Uncertainty in assays leads to uncertainty in models used for risk assessments. This poster assesses uncertainty in the ER and AR models.

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Cancer.gov

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

2012-12-01

As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

Advances in risk assessment and communication.

PubMed

Goldstein, Bernard D

2005-01-01

Risk analysis continues to evolve. There is increasing depth and breadth to each component of the four-step risk-assessment paradigm of hazard identification, dose-response analysis, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Basic conceptual approaches to understanding how people perceive risk are being tested against a growing body of empirical observations, many involving stakeholders. Emerging ideas such as the precautionary principle have provided challenges that have led to a rethinking of the role of risk assessment in environmental health. Newer problems, such as intergenerational issues posed by long-lasting radiation pollution, environmental justice, and the assessment and communication of risks related to terrorism, have spurred innovative approaches to risk analysis.

Preliminary assessment of pavement damage due to heavier loads on Louisiana highways.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-05-01

The current study makes a preliminary assessment of the impact of increasing the gross vehicle weight (GVW) from current legal limits to 100,000 lb (45,360 kg) on vehicles hauling sugarcane, rice, timber, and cotton. Sample sections of road in each a...

Schedule Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Greg

2003-01-01

Schedule Risk Assessment needs to determine the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. Task in a schedule should reflect the "most likely" duration for each task. IN reality, each task is different and has a varying degree of probability of finishing within or after the duration specified. Schedule risk assessment attempt to quantify these probabilities by assigning values to each task. Bridges the gap between CPM scheduling and the project's need to know the likelihood of "when".

Preliminary Ecotoxicity and Biodegradability Assessment of Metalworking Fluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerulová, Kristína; Amcha, Peter; Filická, Slávka

2010-01-01

The main aim of this study was to evaluate the potential of activated sludge from sewage treatment plant to degrade selected MWFs (ecotoxicity to bacterial consortium) and to evaluate the ecotoxicity by Lemna minor-higher plant. After evaluating the ecotoxicity, biodegradations rate with activated sludge was assessed on the basis of COD measurement. Preliminary study of measuring the ecotoxicity according to OECD 221 by Lemna minor shows effective concentration of Emulzin H at the rate of 81.6 mg l-1, for Ecocool 82.9 mg l-1, for BC 25 about 99.3 mg l-1, and for Dasnobor about 97.3 mg l-1. Preliminary study of measuring the ecotoxicity by bacterial consortium according to OECD 209 (STN EN ISO 8192) shows effective concentration of Blasocut BC 25 at the rate 227.4 mg l-1. According to OECD 302B, the biodegradations level of Emulzin H, Ecocool and BC 25 achieved 80% in 10 days. It can be stated that these MWFs have potential to ultimate degradation, but the statement has to be confirmed by a biodegradability test with other parameters than COD, which exhibits some disadvantages in testing O/W emulsions.

Development and preliminary reliability of a multitasking assessment for executive functioning after concussion.

PubMed

Smith, Laurel B; Radomski, Mary Vining; Davidson, Leslie Freeman; Finkelstein, Marsha; Weightman, Margaret M; McCulloch, Karen L; Scherer, Matthew R

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES. Executive functioning deficits may result from concussion. The Charge of Quarters (CQ) Duty Task is a multitask assessment designed to assess executive functioning in servicemembers after concussion. In this article, we discuss the rationale and process used in the development of the CQ Duty Task and present pilot data from the preliminary evaluation of interrater reliability (IRR). METHOD. Three evaluators observed as 12 healthy participants performed the CQ Duty Task and measured performance using various metrics. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) quantified IRR. RESULTS. The ICC for task completion was .94. ICCs for other assessment metrics were variable. CONCLUSION. Preliminary IRR data for the CQ Duty Task are encouraging, but further investigation is needed to improve IRR in some domains. Lessons learned in the development of the CQ Duty Task could benefit future test development efforts with populations other than the military. Copyright © 2014 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

MedlinePlus

... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

2013-01-01

The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

Public Risk Assessment Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mendeck, Gavin

2010-01-01

The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

The Coordinators of Psychiatric Education (COPE) Residency In-Training Exam: A Preliminary Psychometric Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montgomery, Gregory P. J.; Crockford, David N.; Hecker, Kent

2010-01-01

Objective: The Coordinators of Psychiatric Education (COPE) Residency In-Training Exam is a formative exam for Canadian psychiatric residents that was reconstructed using assessment best practices. An assessment of psychometric properties was subsequently performed on the exam to ensure preliminary validity and reliability. Methods: An exam…

Values in science and risk assessment.

PubMed

Wandall, Birgitte

2004-09-25

It is a widely accepted claim that scientific practice contains value judgments, i.e. decisions made on the basis of values. This paper clarifies the concepts involved in this claim and explains its implications for risk assessment. It is explained why values are necessarily a part of science and of risk assessment. A certain type of values that contribute to the aim of science, so-called epistemic values, are identified as rationally justified as basis for judgment in science. It is argued that the aims of pure science and risk assessment differ in some aspects and that consequently pure science's epistemic values are not sufficient for risk assessment. I suggest how the epistemic values may be supplemented in order to align better with the aim of risk assessment. It is concluded that since risk assessment is no less value-laden than pure science, it is important (a) that risk assessors become aware of what values they are (often implicitly) relying on, (b) that the values are justifiable, and (c) that transparency is ensured, i.e. that the values and value-based assumptions applied in particular risk assessments are explicitly acknowledged.

40 CFR 300.305 - Phase II-Preliminary assessment and initiation of action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Phase II-Preliminary assessment and initiation of action. 300.305 Section 300.305 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS NATIONAL OIL AND HAZARDOUS...

40 CFR 300.305 - Phase II-Preliminary assessment and initiation of action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Phase II-Preliminary assessment and initiation of action. 300.305 Section 300.305 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS NATIONAL OIL AND HAZARDOUS...

40 CFR 300.305 - Phase II-Preliminary assessment and initiation of action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Phase II-Preliminary assessment and initiation of action. 300.305 Section 300.305 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS NATIONAL OIL AND HAZARDOUS...

40 CFR 300.305 - Phase II-Preliminary assessment and initiation of action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Phase II-Preliminary assessment and initiation of action. 300.305 Section 300.305 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS NATIONAL OIL AND HAZARDOUS...

Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

MedlinePlus

... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

The reliability and preliminary validity of game-based fall risk assessment in community-dwelling older adults.

PubMed

Yamada, Minoru; Aoyama, Tomoki; Nakamura, Masatoshi; Tanaka, Buichi; Nagai, Koutatsu; Tatematsu, Noriatsu; Uemura, Kazuki; Nakamura, Takashi; Tsuboyama, Tadao; Ichihashi, Noriaki

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine whether the Nintendo Wii Fit program could be used for fall risk assessment in healthy, community-dwelling older adults. Forty-five community-dwelling older women participated in this study. The "Basic Step" and "Ski Slalom" modules were selected from the Wii Fit game program. The following 5 physical performance tests were performed: the 10-m walk test under single- and dual-task conditions, the Timed Up and Go test under single- and dual-task conditions, and the Functional Reach test. Compared with the faller group, the nonfaller group showed a significant difference in the Basic Step (P < .001) and a nonsignificant difference in the Ski Slalom (P = .453). The discriminating criterion between the 2 groups was a score of 111 points on the Basic Step (P < .001). The Basic Step showed statistically significant, moderate correlations between the dual-task lag of walking (r = -.547) and the dual-task lag of the Timed Up and Go test (r = -.688). These results suggest that game-based fall risk assessment using the Basic Step has a high generality and is useful in community-dwelling older adults. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporary Blinding Limits versus Maximum Permissible Exposure - A Paradigm Change in Risk Assessment for Visible Optical Radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reidenbach, Hans-Dieter

Safety considerations in the field of laser radiation have traditionally been restricted to maximum permissible exposure levels defined as a function of wavelength and exposure duration. But in Europe according to the European Directive 2006/25/EC on artificial optical radiation the employer has to include in his risk assessment indirect effects from temporary blinding. Whereas sufficient knowledge on various deterministic risks exists, only sparse quantitative data is available for the impairment of visual functions due to temporary blinding from visible optical radiation. The consideration of indirect effects corresponds to a paradigm change in risk assessment when situations have to be treated, where intrabeam viewing of low-power laser radiation is likely or other non-coherent visible radiation might influence certain visual tasks. In order to obtain a sufficient basis for the assessment of certain situations, investigations of the functional relationships between wavelength, exposure time and optical power and the resulting interference on visual functions have been performed and the results are reported. The duration of a visual disturbance is thus predictable. In addition, preliminary information on protective measures is given.

Consumer product in vitro digestion model: Bioaccessibility of contaminants and its application in risk assessment.

PubMed

Brandon, Esther F A; Oomen, Agnes G; Rompelberg, Cathy J M; Versantvoort, Carolien H M; van Engelen, Jacqueline G M; Sips, Adrienne J A M

2006-03-01

This paper describes the applicability of in vitro digestion models as a tool for consumer products in (ad hoc) risk assessment. In current risk assessment, oral bioavailability from a specific product is considered to be equal to bioavailability found in toxicity studies in which contaminants are usually ingested via liquids or food matrices. To become bioavailable, contaminants must first be released from the product during the digestion process (i.e. become bioaccessible). Contaminants in consumer products may be less bioaccessible than contaminants in liquid or food. Therefore, the actual risk after oral exposure could be overestimated. This paper describes the applicability of a simple, reliable, fast and relatively inexpensive in vitro method for determining the bioaccessibility of a contaminant from a consumer product. Different models, representing sucking and/or swallowing were developed. The experimental design of each model can be adjusted to the appropriate exposure scenarios as determined by the risk assessor. Several contaminated consumer products were tested in the various models. Although relevant in vivo data are scare, we succeeded to preliminary validate the model for one case. This case showed good correlation and never underestimated the bioavailability. However, validation check needs to be continued.

PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENTS OF SPATIAL INFLUENCES IN THE AMBOS NOGALES REGION OF THE US-MEXICAN BORDER

EPA Science Inventory

Ambient air measurements collected from 1994 to 1995 were used in a preliminary assessment of potential source and spatial influences in the Ambos Nogales border region (Nogales, Arizona, USA and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico). In this assessment, volatile organic compounds (VOC) and...

AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

EPA Science Inventory

In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

PubMed Central

Bos, Peter M. J.; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F.; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J. G. M.; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C. E.; Oomen, Agnes G.

2015-01-01

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy. PMID:26633430

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

PubMed

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

An assessment of local risk. [to area associated with commercial operations of aircraft with graphite fiber composite structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pocinki, L. S.

1979-01-01

A status report is presented on the assessment of the risk at Washington National Airport and the surrounding Washington, D.C. area associated with commercial operations of aircraft with graphite fiber composite in their structures. The presentation is outlined as follows: (1) overall strategy; (2) need for individual airport results; (3) airport-metro area model - submodels, method, assumptions and data; and (4) preliminary results for National Airport - D.C. area.

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

78 FR 14540 - Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Volatilization Assessment; Extension of Comment Period

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-06

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OPP-2008-0850; FRL-9380-7] Chlorpyrifos Registration... Federal Register issue of February 6, 2013, concerning Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary... volatilization assessment for the registration review of chlorpyrifos. EPA received requests from several...

Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, R. H.; Blohm, A. J.; Delgado, A.

2015-08-15

U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before finalmore » conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and

Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Donald R.

With increasing frequency, problems of environmental contamination are being analyzed from a risk perspective. Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment is written for those who wish to present the results of their examination of contaminated land in terms of risk.The opening chapters introduce the concepts of risk analysis for contaminated land. Risk management and the risk assessment process are based on a source-pathway-target framework. Readers are warned against an “over-reliance on the identification of contaminants rather than the potential pathways by which targets may be exposed to these hazards.” In the risk management framework presented in this book, risk evaluation and resultant decision making are seen as part of both the risk assessment and risk reduction process. The sharp separation of risk assessment from risk management as seen in the National Academy of Sciences' (NAS) risk assessment paradigm is not advocatedsemi; perhaps this is because the NAS' concern was regulatory decision while the book's concern is the assessment of a specific site.

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: MAGNETIC TAPE ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

Environmental Risk Assessment for a Developing Country like India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Shamsuzzaman; Saha, Indranil

2017-04-01

The developing world is facing an increased risk of accelerating disaster losses. A concrete risk assessment along with subsequent management program involving identification, mitigation and preparedness will assist in rehabilitation and reconstruction once the disaster has struck is critical to subvert the magnitude of the loss incurred. A developing country like India has been taken as an example to highlight the elements mentioned. Most countries like India in the developing world is facing a mounting challenge to promote economic growth and bring down poverty. In this scenario, significant climatic changes will not only impact key economic sectors but also add to the existing conundrum. Sudden onset of natural calamities pose an increasing problem to the developing countries for which risk management strategies need to be forged in order to deal with such hazards. If this is not the case, then a substantial diversion of financial resources to reconstruction in the post disaster phase severely messes up the budget planning process. This compromises economic growth in the long run. Envisaging cost effective mitigation measures to minimize environmental and socio economic toll from natural disasters is the immediate requirement. Often it has been found that an apparent lack of historical data on catastrophic events makes hazard assessment an extremely difficult process. For this it is useful to establish preliminary maps to identify high risk zones and justify the utilization of funds. Vulnerability studies assess the physical, social and economic consequences that result from the occurrence of a severe natural phenomenon. Also they take into account public awareness of risk and the consequent ability to cope with such risks. Risk analysis collates information from hazard assessment and vulnerability studies in the form of an estimation of probable future losses in the face of similar hazards. Promoting different governmental schemes to catastrophe risk absorption

Assessing risk for violence among male and female civil psychiatric patients: the HCR-20, PCL:SV, and VSC.

PubMed

Nicholls, Tonia L; Ogloff, James R P; Douglas, Kevin S

2004-01-01

This study evaluated the predictive validity of violence risk assessments conducted using the HCR-20, the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV), and by the Violence Screening Checklist (VSC) in a sample of 268 involuntarily hospitalized male and female psychiatric patients. Information pertaining to violence and crime was coded from medical charts and correctional records. The HCR-20/PCL:SV evidenced modest non-significant associations in postdictive assessments of inpatient violence among men. Moderate to strong significant associations were found between the HCR-20/PCL:SV and inpatient violence among women. Pseudo-prospective assessments using the HCR-20 and PCL:SV resulted in moderate to large relationships with violence and crime in men and women following community discharge. It is concluded that the VSC is a promising tool for assessing acute inpatient violence risk with men. Findings offer preliminary validation of the predictive validity of the HCR-20 and PCL:SV with female civil psychiatric patients. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

Preliminary human health risk assessment of arsenic and fluoride in tap water from Zacatecas, México.

PubMed

Martínez-Acuña, Mónica I; Mercado-Reyes, Marisa; Alegría-Torres, Jorge A; Mejía-Saavedra, José J

2016-08-01

Zacatecas state is located in the central area of Mexico, where the underground water contains elevated quantities of natural arsenic and fluoride. In order to estimate health risk associated with human exposure to these pollutants, tap water samples from the southern-central region of the state were analyzed. Ninety percent of the samples exceeded the levels of arsenic established by the World Health Organization (WHO) of 0.01 mg/L and 43 % exceeded the limit established by the NOM-127-SSA1(1) of 0.025 mg/L. Forty-three percent of the samples had fluoride levels above the Mexican regulation limit of 1.5 mg/L (NOM-127-SSA1). We used WHO and EPA's health risk assessment method, we estimated 80 % of the inhabitants of sites studied could be exposed to arsenic levels higher than those recommended by EPA and the WHO, 22 % could be exposed to fluoride levels higher than those recommended by EPA, and 16 % of the local population may be in risk of suffering dental fluorosis.

A preliminary assessment of the true morels (Morchella) in Newfoundland and Labrador

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A preliminary assessment of true morels (Morchella) from Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) was obtained by using DNA sequence data from portions of three genes to identify 20 collections from Newfoundland and one from a remote location in Labrador. To place this work in a broader context, data on 25 co...

An assessment of adult risks of paresthesia due to mercury from coal combustion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lipfert, F.; Moskowitz, P.; Fthenakis, V.

1993-11-01

This paper presents results from a probabilistic assessment of the mercury health risks associated with a hypothetical 1000 MW coal-fired power plant. The assessment draws on the extant knowledge in each of the important steps in the chain from emissions to health effects, based on methylmercury derived from seafood. For this assessment, we define three separate sources of dietary Hg: canned tuna (affected by global Hg), marine shellfish and finfish (affected by global Hg), and freshwater gamefish (affected by both global Hg and local deposition from nearby sources). We consider emissions of both reactive and elemental mercury from the hypotheticalmore » plant (assumed to burn coal with the US average Hg content) and estimate wet and dry deposition rates; atmospheric reactions are not considered. Mercury that is not deposited within 50 km is assumed to enter the global background pool. The incremental Hg in local fish is assumed to be proportional to the incremental total Hg deposition. Three alternative dose-response models were derived from published data on specific neurological responses, in this case, adult paresthesia (skin prickling or tingling of the extremities). Preliminary estimates show the upper 95th percentile of the baseline risk attributed to seafood consumption to be around 10{sup {minus}4} (1 chance in 10,000). Based on a doubling of Hg deposition in the immediate vicinity of the hypothetical plant, the incremental local risk from seafood would be about a factor of 4 higher. These risks should be compared to the estimated background prevalence rate of paresthesia, which is about 7%.« less

Quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in edible vegetable oils marketed in Shandong of China.

PubMed

Jiang, Dafeng; Xin, Chenglong; Li, Wei; Chen, Jindong; Li, Fenghua; Chu, Zunhua; Xiao, Peirui; Shao, Lijun

2015-09-01

This work studies on the quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in edible vegetable oils in Shandong, China. The concentrations of 15 PAHs in 242 samples were determined by high performance liquid chromatography coupled with fluorescence detection. The results indicated that the mean concentration of 15 PAHs in oil samples was 54.37 μg kg(-1). Low molecular weight PAH compounds were the predominant contamination. Especially, the carcinogenic benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) was detected at a mean concentration of 1.28 μg kg(-1), which was lower than the limit of European Union and China. A preliminary evaluation of human health risk assessment for PAHs was accomplished using BaP toxic equivalency factors and the incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR). The ILCR values for children, adolescents, adults, and seniors were all larger than 1 × 10(-6), indicating a high potential carcinogenic risk on the dietary exposed populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preliminary assessment on the bioaccessibility of contaminants of emerging concern in raw and cooked seafood.

PubMed

Alves, Ricardo N; Maulvault, Ana L; Barbosa, Vera L; Cunha, Sara; Kwadijk, Christiaan J A F; Álvarez-Muñoz, Diana; Rodríguez-Mozaz, Sara; Aznar-Alemany, Òscar; Eljarrat, Ethel; Barceló, Damià; Fernandez-Tejedor, Margarita; Tediosi, Alice; Marques, António

2017-06-01

A preliminary assessment of the bioaccessibility of contaminants of emerging concern (CeCs), including perfluorinated compounds (PFCs; i.e. PFOS and PFUnA), brominated flame retardants (BFRs; i.e. BDE47, BDE100, α-HBCD) and pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs; i.e. venlafaxine, methylparaben and UV-filter OC) was performed in seafood species available in the European markets. Additionally, the effect of steaming on CeCs bioaccessibility was also investigated for the first time. Overall, steaming affected differentially contaminants' concentrations, for instance, decreasing PFOS levels in flounder, but increasing both BDE47 and BDE100. CeCs bioaccessibility varied according to seafood species and contaminant group, i.e. in general, lower bioaccessibility values were obtained for PBDEs (<70%, except for mackerel), while PFCs and PPCPs revealed higher bioaccessibility percentages (between 71 and 95%). The lowest bioaccessibility value was obtained for α-HBCD (mussel; 14%), whereas the highest percentage was observed in venlafaxine (mullet; 95%). Our preliminary study reports also, for the first time, the effects of steaming on CeCs bioaccessibility. In most cases, bioaccessibility was not affected by cooking, however, a decrease was observed in PBDEs and venlafaxine bioaccessibility in steamed mussels and mullet, respectively, thus lowering the potential health risks associated with seafood consumption. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

PubMed

Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

2012-04-01

To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

Assessing the Risk of Sarcopenia in the Elderly: The Mini Sarcopenia Risk Assessment (MSRA) Questionnaire.

PubMed

Rossi, A P; Micciolo, R; Rubele, S; Fantin, F; Caliari, C; Zoico, E; Mazzali, G; Ferrari, E; Volpato, S; Zamboni, M

2017-01-01

to validate the MSRA questionnaire proposed as prescreening tool for sarcopenia, in a population of community-dwelling elderly subjects. observational study. community dwelling elderly subjects. 274 community dwelling elderly subjects, 177 women and 97 men, aged 66-78 years. Based on EWGSOP diagnostic criteria subjects were classified as sarcopenic and non-sarcopenic. The Mini Sarcopenia Risk Assessment (MSRA) questionnaire, is composed of seven questions and investigates anamnestic and nutritional characteristics related to risk of sarcopenia onset (age, protein and dairy products consumption, number of meals per day, physical activity level, number of hospitalizations and weight loss in the last year). 33.5% of the study population, were classified as sarcopenic. With the 7-item MSRA score, subjects with a score of 30 or less, had a 4-fold greater risk of being sarcopenic than subjects with a score higher than 30 (OR:4.20;95% CI:2.26-8.06); area under the ROC curve was 0.786 (95% CI:0.725-0.847). In a logistic regression, considering as dependent variable the probability of being sarcopenic, and as independent variables the 7 items of the questionnaire, two items (number of meals and milk and dairy products consumption) showed non-significant diagnostic power. A 5-item score was then derived and the area under the ROC curve was 0.789 (95% IC:0.728-0.851). Taking into account the cost of false positive and false negative costs and the prevalence of sarcopenia, the "optimal" threshold of the original MSRA score (based on 7 items) is 30, with a sensitivity of 0.804 and a specificity of 0.505, while the "optimal" threshold of the MSRA score based on 5 items, is 45, with a sensitivity of 0.804 and a specificity of 0.604. this preliminary study shows that the MSRA questionnaire is predictive of sarcopenia and can be suggested as prescreening instrument to detect this condition. The use of a short form of the MSRA questionnaire improves the capacity to identify

Assessing the Risk of Aquifer Salinization in a Large-Scale Coastal Irrigation Scheme in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaccaria, Daniele; Passarella, Giuseppe; D'Agostino, Daniela; Giordano, Raffaele; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel; Maggi, Sabino; Bruno, Delia; Foglia, Laura

2017-04-01

A research study was conducted on a coastal irrigated agricultural area of southern Italy to assess the risks of aquifer degradation likely resulting from the intensive groundwater pumping from individual farm wells and reduced aquifer recharge. Information were collected both from farmers and delivery system's operators during a survey conducted in 2012 revealing that farmers depend mainly on groundwater with the aim to achieve flexible irrigation management as opposed to the rigid rotational delivery service of surface water supply provided by the local water management agency. The study area is intensively farmed by small land-holding growers with high-value micro-irrigated horticultural crops. Our team appraised the soil and aquifer degradation hazards using a simplified procedure for environmental risk assessment that allowed identifying the risk-generating processes, evaluating the magnitude of impacts, and estimating the overall risks significance. We also collected the stakeholders' perceptions on agricultural water management and use through field interviews, whereas parallel investigations revealed significant aquifer salinity increase during the recent years. As a final step, some preliminary risk mitigation options were appraised by exploring the growers' response to possible changes of irrigation deliveries by the water management agency. The present study integrated multi-annual observations, data interpretation, and modelling efforts, which jointly enabled the analysis of complex water management scenarios and the development of informed decisions. Keywords: Environmental risk assessment, Fuzzy cognitive maps, Groundwater degradation, Seawater intrusion

Fact Sheet: Assessing Risks from Flame Retardants

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BENEFITS ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

Among the important types of information considered in decision making at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are the outputs of risk assessments and benefit-cost analyses. Risk assessments present estimates of the adverse consequences of exposure to environmental poll...

Preliminary zoning for risk assessment and remediation purposes in Portman Bay.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Sirvent, Carmen; Martínez-Sanchez, MJose; Garcia-Lorenzo, MariLuz; Hernandez-Cordoba, Manuel; Molina, Jose; Gonzalez, Eva; Perez-Espinosa, Victor

2014-05-01

determined using Cu-Kα radiation with an X-ray Diffractometer and appropriate software. Data for metal leached, Acid-volatile sulphide (AVS) and simultaneously extracted metals (SEM) were also obtained. The results allowed two types of materials to be differentiated. The first one with a fine particle size, is related with the direct discharge of wastes and contains jarosite and other minerals resulting of supergenic alteration. The pH is low and both the level of heavy metals and chemical reactivity are high. The second, different material is black sand, a sediment of coarse texture in which stable minerals, phylosilicates, iron oxides and hydroxides, siderite, pyrite and quartz predominate. The pH is close to neutrality and despite a high heavy metals level, the chemical reactivity is low. The data allowed a preliminary zoning of the risk in the area to be established, and this was the starting point to outline the remediation project.

Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

2016-12-01

Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

2016-02-01

Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tan, Zhibin (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Risk Assessment for Stonecutting Enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleksandrova, A. J.; Timofeeva, S. S.

2017-04-01

Working conditions at enterprises and artisanal workshops for the processing of jewelry and ornamental stones were considered. The main stages of the technological process for processing of stone raw materials were shown; dangerous processes in the extraction of stone and its processing were identified. The characteristic of harmful and dangerous production factors affecting stonecutters is given. It was revealed that the most dangerous are the increased level of noise and vibration, as well as chemical reagents. The results of a special assessment of the working conditions of stone-cutting plant workers are studied. Professions with high professional risk were identified; an analysis of occupational risks and occupational injuries was carried out. Risk assessment was produced by several methods; professions with high and medium risk indicators were identified by results of the evaluation. The application of risk assessment methods was given the possibility to justify rational measures reducing risks to the lowest possible level. The received quantitative indicators of risk of workers of the stone-cutting enterprises are the result of this work.

Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

2016-07-01

Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

PubMed

Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

2008-11-15

The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

Enhanced Preliminary Assessment Report: Fort Wingate Depot Activity Gallup, New Mexico

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-03-01

Census, 1980 Census of Population. U 20 uranium exploration, mining, and milling, while the trade sector is influenced by the Zuni and Navajo ...Five Indian reservations, eight national park areas ( Navajo , Chaco Canyon, Aztec Ruins, El Moro National Monuments, Mesa Verde, and Petrified Forest...Argonne National Laboratory Argonne, Illinois 60439 IAppmvd bo o. 90 0611 090 CETHA-BC-CR-90051 Enhanced Preliminary Assessment Report: Fort Wingate Depot

Preliminary assessment of a hysteroscopic fallopian tube heat and biomaterial technology for permanent female sterilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divakar, Prajan; Trembly, B. Stuart; Moodie, Karen L.; Hoopes, P. Jack; Wegst, Ulrike G. K.

2017-02-01

Recent failures in hysteroscopic female sterilization procedures have brought into question the implantation of nonresorbable metal devices into the fallopian tubes due to long-term risks such as migration, fragmentation, and tubal perforation. The goal of this study is to assess whether a porous, biodegradable implant can be deposited into the fallopian tube lumen with or without a local mild heat treatment to generate a safe and permanent fallopian tube occlusion/sterilization event. The technologies investigated included freeze-cast collagen-based scaffolds and magnetic nanoparticle (MNP) based scaffolds. In vitro assessment of iron oxide MNP-based scaffolds was performed to determine the absorption rate density (ARD); subsequent computational modeling quantified the thermal in vivo steady state temperature as a function of tubal radius for treatment planning. For collagen-based scaffolds, in vivo testing was performed to study the biocompatibility in a mouse flank model, followed by implantation into an in vivo anestrus feline uterine horn (animal model for the fallopian tube). Biological responses were studied histopathologically. Uterine horn patency was assessed via radiographic imaging. Preliminary studies suggest the MNP-impregnated scaffold and a safe, noninvasive AMF excitation field have potential to generate a sufficient focal fallopian tube thermal dose to create a fibrotic healing event and ultimately, permanent tubal occlusion.

Summary Report: Risk Assessment Forum Technical Workshop on Population-level Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

2008 technical workshop regarding development of additional guidelines or best practices for planning, implementing and interpreting ecological risk assessments that involve population-level assessment endpoints.

Assessment and management of risk for intimate partner violence by police officers using the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide.

PubMed

Belfrage, Henrik; Strand, Susanne; Storey, Jennifer E; Gibas, Andrea L; Kropp, P Randall; Hart, Stephen D

2012-02-01

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a crime that is present in all countries, seriously impacts victims, and demands a great deal of time and resources from the criminal justice system. The current study examined the use of the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide, 2nd ed. (SARA; Kropp, Hart, Webster, & Eaves, 1995), a structured professional judgment risk assessment and management tool for IPV, by police officers in Sweden over a follow-up of 18 months. SARA risk assessments had significant predictive validity with respect to risk management recommendations made by police, as well as with recidivism as indexed by subsequent contacts with police. Risk management mediated the association between risk assessment and recidivism: High levels of intervention were associated with decreased recidivism in high risk cases, but with increased recidivism in low risk cases. The findings support the potential utility of police-based risk assessment and management of IPV, and in particular the belief that appropriately structured risk assessment and management decisions can prevent violence. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

2012-01-01

The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

Health risk assessment of organic micropollutants in greywater for potable reuse.

PubMed

Etchepare, Ramiro; van der Hoek, Jan Peter

2015-04-01

In light of the increasing interest in development of sustainable potable reuse systems, additional research is needed to elucidate the risks of producing drinking water from new raw water sources. This article investigates the presence and potential health risks of organic micropollutants in greywater, a potential new source for potable water production introduced in this work. An extensive literature survey reveals that almost 280 organic micropollutants have been detected in greywater. A three-tiered approach is applied for the preliminary health risk assessment of these chemicals. Benchmark values are derived from established drinking water standards for compounds grouped in Tier 1, from literature toxicological data for compounds in Tier 2, and from a Threshold of Toxicological Concern approach for compounds in Tier 3. A risk quotient is estimated by comparing the maximum concentration levels reported in greywater to the benchmark values. The results show that for the majority of compounds, risk quotient values were below 0.2, which suggests they would not pose appreciable concern to human health over a lifetime exposure to potable water. Fourteen compounds were identified with risk quotients above 0.2 which may warrant further investigation if greywater is used as a source for potable reuse. The present findings are helpful in prioritizing upcoming greywater quality monitoring and defining the goals of multiple barriers treatment in future water reclamation plants for potable water production. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Panel 2: anticipatory risk assessment: identifying, assessing, and mitigating exposure risks before they occur.

PubMed

Guidotti, Tee L; Pacha, Laura

2011-07-01

Health threats place the military mission and deployed service members at risk. A commander's focus is on preventing acute health risks, such as diarrhea, because these quickly compromise the mission. However, in recent conflicts chronic and long-term illness risks have emerged as concerns. Department of Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff mandates require documentation of exposures and environmental conditions to reconstruct exposures and evaluate future health risks. Current processes for identifying and assessing hazards, including identification and assessment before deployment and in time to take action to prevent or reduce exposures, when followed, are generally adequate for known hazards. Identifying and addressing novel, unexpected risks remain challenges. Armed conflicts are associated with rapidly changing conditions, making ongoing hazard identification and assessment difficult. Therefore, surveillance of the environment for hazards and surveillance of personnel for morbidity must be practiced at all times. Communication of risk information to decision makers is critical but problematic. Preventive Medicine (PM) personnel should take responsibility for communicating this information to non-PM military medical people and to military commanders. Communication of risks identified and lessons learned between PM personnel of different military units is extremely important when one military unit replaces another in a deployed environment.

Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.

2005-01-01

A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

PubMed

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges.

PubMed

MacPhail, Robert C; Grulke, Eric A; Yokel, Robert A

2013-01-01

Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug, or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of practice. The precision with which risk can be estimated is inevitably constrained, however, by uncertainties arising from the lack of pertinent data. Developing accurate risk assessments for nanoparticles and nanoparticle-containing products may present further challenges because of the unique properties of the particles, uncertainties about their composition and the populations exposed to them, and how these may change throughout the particle's life cycle. This review introduces the evolving practice of risk assessment followed by some of the uncertainties that need to be addressed to improve our understanding of nanoparticle risks. Given the clarion call for life-cycle assessments of nanoparticles, an unprecedented degree of national and international coordination between scientific organizations, regulatory agencies, and stakeholders will be required to achieve this goal. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A support vector machine designed to identify breasts at high risk using multi-probe generated REIS signals: a preliminary assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gur, David; Zheng, Bin; Lederman, Dror; Dhurjaty, Sreeram; Sumkin, Jules; Zuley, Margarita

2010-02-01

A new resonance-frequency based electronic impedance spectroscopy (REIS) system with multi-probes, including one central probe and six external probes that are designed to contact the breast skin in a circular form with a radius of 60 millimeters to the central ("nipple") probe, has been assembled and installed in our breast imaging facility. We are conducting a prospective clinical study to test the performance of this REIS system in identifying younger women (< 50 years old) at higher risk for having or developing breast cancer. In this preliminary analysis, we selected a subset of 100 examinations. Among these, 50 examinations were recommended for a biopsy due to detection of a highly suspicious breast lesion and 50 were determined negative during mammography screening. REIS output signal sweeps that we used to compute an initial feature included both amplitude and phase information representing differences between corresponding (matched) EIS signal values acquired from the left and right breasts. A genetic algorithm was applied to reduce the feature set and optimize a support vector machine (SVM) to classify the REIS examinations into "biopsy recommended" and "non-biopsy" recommended groups. Using the leave-one-case-out testing method, the classification performance as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.816 +/- 0.042. This pilot analysis suggests that the new multi-probe-based REIS system could potentially be used as a risk stratification tool to identify pre-screened young women who are at higher risk of having or developing breast cancer.

Human health risk assessment of air emissions from development of unconventional natural gas resources.

PubMed

McKenzie, Lisa M; Witter, Roxana Z; Newman, Lee S; Adgate, John L

2012-05-01

Technological advances (e.g. directional drilling, hydraulic fracturing), have led to increases in unconventional natural gas development (NGD), raising questions about health impacts. We estimated health risks for exposures to air emissions from a NGD project in Garfield County, Colorado with the objective of supporting risk prevention recommendations in a health impact assessment (HIA). We used EPA guidance to estimate chronic and subchronic non-cancer hazard indices and cancer risks from exposure to hydrocarbons for two populations: (1) residents living >½ mile from wells and (2) residents living ≤ ½ mile from wells. Residents living ≤ ½ mile from wells are at greater risk for health effects from NGD than are residents living >½ mile from wells. Subchronic exposures to air pollutants during well completion activities present the greatest potential for health effects. The subchronic non-cancer hazard index (HI) of 5 for residents ≤ ½ mile from wells was driven primarily by exposure to trimethylbenzenes, xylenes, and aliphatic hydrocarbons. Chronic HIs were 1 and 0.4. for residents ≤ ½ mile from wells and >½ mile from wells, respectively. Cumulative cancer risks were 10 in a million and 6 in a million for residents living ≤ ½ mile and >½ mile from wells, respectively, with benzene as the major contributor to the risk. Risk assessment can be used in HIAs to direct health risk prevention strategies. Risk management approaches should focus on reducing exposures to emissions during well completions. These preliminary results indicate that health effects resulting from air emissions during unconventional NGD warrant further study. Prospective studies should focus on health effects associated with air pollution. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pollinator Risk Assessment Guidance

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This Guidance is part of a long-term strategy to advance the science of assessing the risks posed by pesticides to honey bees, giving risk managers the means to further improve pollinator protection in our regulatory decisions.

Preliminary bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equation for body composition assessment in young females from Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caicedo-Eraso, J. C.; González-Correa, C. H.; González-Correa, C. A.

2013-04-01

A previous study showed that reported BIA equations for body composition are not suitable for Colombian population. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a preliminary BIA equation for body composition assessment in young females from Colombia, using hydrodensitometry as reference method. A sample of 30 young females was evaluated. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were defined to minimize the variability of BIA. Height, weight, BIA, residual lung volume (RV) and underwater weight (UWW) were measured. A preliminary BIA equation was developed (r2 = 0.72, SEE = 2.48 kg) by stepwise multiple regression with fat-free mass (FFM) as dependent variable and weight, height and impedance measurements as independent variables. The quality of regression was evaluated and a cross-validation against 50% of sample confirmed that results obtained with the preliminary BIA equation is interchangeable with results obtained with hydrodensitometry (r2 = 0.84, SEE = 2.62 kg). The preliminary BIA equation can be used for body composition assessment in young females from Colombia until a definitive equation is developed. The next step will be increasing the sample, including a second reference method, as deuterium oxide dilution (D2O), and using multi-frequency BIA (MF-BIA). It would also be desirable to develop equations for males and other ethnic groups in Colombia.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de; Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C.; Renn, Ortwin

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the socialmore » impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.« less

Risk assessment [Chapter 9

Treesearch

Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

2014-01-01

What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

National-scale Assessment of Air Toxics Risks

EPA Science Inventory

The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

A risk assessment approach for fresh fruits.

PubMed

Bassett, J; McClure, P

2008-04-01

To describe the approach used in conducting a fit-for-purpose risk assessment of microbiological human pathogens associated with fresh fruit and the risk management recommendations made. A qualitative risk assessment for microbiological hazards in fresh fruit was carried out based on the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) framework, modified to consider multiple hazards and all fresh (whole) fruits. The assessment determines 14 significant bacterial, viral, protozoal and nematodal hazards associated with fresh produce, assesses the probable level of exposure from fresh fruit, concludes on the risk from each hazard, and considers and recommends risk management actions. A review of potential risk management options allowed the comparison of effectiveness with the potential exposure to each hazard. Washing to a recommended protocol is an appropriate risk management action for the vast majority of consumption events, particularly when good agricultural and hygienic practices are followed and with the addition of refrigerated storage for low acid fruit. Additional safeguards are recommended for aggregate fruits with respect to the risk from protozoa. The potentially complex process of assessing the risks of multiple hazards in multiple but similar commodities can be simplified in a qualitative assessment approach that employs the Codex methodology.

OPPT workplan risk assessment Methylene Chloride ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

These assessments will focus on the use of DCM and NMP in paint stripping. NMP exposures scenarios for this use result in inhalation and dermal exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of NMP will be discussed in the assessment. In the case of DCM, there are human health concerns for both cancer and non-cancer effects. This DCM assessment of paint stripping uses will focus only on inhalation exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of DCM will be discussed in the assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Development and Validation of the Evidence-Based Practice Process Assessment Scale: Preliminary Findings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubin, Allen; Parrish, Danielle E.

2010-01-01

Objective: This report describes the development and preliminary findings regarding the reliability, validity, and sensitivity of a scale that has been developed to assess practitioners' perceived familiarity with, attitudes about, and implementation of the phases of the evidence-based practice (EBP) process. Method: After a panel of national…

Advantages of new cardiovascular risk-assessment strategies in high-risk patients with hypertension.

PubMed

Ruilope, Luis M; Segura, Julian

2005-10-01

Accurate assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with hypertension is important when planning appropriate treatment of modifiable risk factors. The causes of CVD are multifactorial, and hypertension seldom exists as an isolated risk factor. Classic models of risk assessment are more accurate than a simple counting of risk factors, but they are not generalizable to all populations. In addition, the risk associated with hypertension is graded, continuous, and independent of other risk factors, and this is not reflected in classic models of risk assessment. This article is intended to review both classic and newer models of CVD risk assessment. MEDLINE was searched for articles published between 1990 and 2005 that contained the terms cardiovascular disease, hypertension, or risk assessment. Articles describing major clinical trials, new data about cardiovascular risk, or global risk stratification were selected for review. Some patients at high long-term risk for CVD events (eg, patients aged <50 years with multiple risk factors) may go untreated because they do not meet the absolute risk-intervention threshold of 20% risk over 10 years with the classic model. Recognition of the limitations of classic risk-assessment models led to new guidelines, particularly those of the European Society of Hypertension-European Society of Cardiology. These guidelines view hypertension as one of many risk and disease factors that require treatment to decrease risk. These newer guidelines include a more comprehensive range of risk factors and more finely graded blood pressure ranges to stratify patients by degree of risk. Whether they accurately predict CVD risk in most populations is not known. Evidence from the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation (VALUE) study, which stratified patients by several risk and disease factors, highlights the predictive value of some newer CVD risk assessments. Modern risk assessments, which include blood pressure

Preliminary evaluation of a measure for reliable assessment of need for constant visual observation in adults with traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Moessner, Anne; Malec, James F; Beveridge, Scott; Reddy, Cara Camiolo; Huffman, Tracy; Marton, Julia; Schmerzler, Audrey J

2016-01-01

To develop and provide initial validation of a measure for accurately determining the need for Constant Visual Observation (CVO) in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) admitted to inpatient rehabilitation. Rating scale development and evaluation through Rasch analysis and assessment of concurrent validity. One hundred and thirty-four individuals with moderate-severe TBI were studied in seven inpatient brain rehabilitation units associated with the National Institute for Disability, Independent Living and Rehabilitation Research (NIDILRR) TBI Model System. Participants were rated on the preliminary version of the CVO Needs Assessment scale (CVONA) and, by independent raters, on the Levels of Risk (LoR) and Supervision Rating Scale (SRS) at four time points during inpatient rehabilitation: admission, Days 2-3, Days 5-6 and Days 8-9. After pruning misfitting items, the CVONA showed satisfactory internal consistency (Person Reliability = 0.85-0.88) across time points. With reference to the LoR and SRS, low false negative rates (sensitivity > 90%) were associated with moderate-to-high false positive rates (29-56%). The CVONA may be a useful objective metric to complement clinical judgement regarding the need for CVO; however, further prospective study is desirable to further assess its utility in identifying at-risk patients, reducing adverse events and decreasing CVO costs.

Cloud-Based Smart Health Monitoring System for Automatic Cardiovascular and Fall Risk Assessment in Hypertensive Patients.

PubMed

Melillo, P; Orrico, A; Scala, P; Crispino, F; Pecchia, L

2015-10-01

The aim of this paper is to describe the design and the preliminary validation of a platform developed to collect and automatically analyze biomedical signals for risk assessment of vascular events and falls in hypertensive patients. This m-health platform, based on cloud computing, was designed to be flexible, extensible, and transparent, and to provide proactive remote monitoring via data-mining functionalities. A retrospective study was conducted to train and test the platform. The developed system was able to predict a future vascular event within the next 12 months with an accuracy rate of 84 % and to identify fallers with an accuracy rate of 72 %. In an ongoing prospective trial, almost all the recruited patients accepted favorably the system with a limited rate of inadherences causing data losses (<20 %). The developed platform supported clinical decision by processing tele-monitored data and providing quick and accurate risk assessment of vascular events and falls.

[Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

PubMed

Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

2012-12-01

Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

Health risk assessments for alumina refineries.

PubMed

Donoghue, A Michael; Coffey, Patrick S

2014-05-01

To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10(-6). The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries.

Risk assessment and risk scores in the management of aortic aneurysms.

PubMed

Von Meijenfeldt, Gerdine C I; Van Der Laan, Maarten J; Zeebregts, Clark J; Balm, Ron; Verhagen, Hence J M

2016-04-01

The decision whether to operate a patient or not can be challenging for a clinician for both ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) as well as elective AAAs. Prior to surgical intervention it would be preferable that the clinician exactly knows which clinical variables lower or increase the chances of morbidity and mortality postintervention. To help in the preoperative counselling and shared decision making several clinical variables can be identified as risk factors and with these, risk models can be developed. An ideal risk score for aneurysm repair includes routinely obtained physiological and anatomical variables, has excellent discrimination and calibration, and is validated in different geographical areas. For elective AAA repair, several risk scores are available, for ruptured AAA treatment, these scores are far less well developed. In this manuscript, we describe the designs and results of published risk scores for elective and open repair. Also, suggestions for uniformly reporting of risk factors and their statistical analyses are described. Furthermore, the preliminary results of a new risk model for ruptured aortic aneurysm will be discussed. This score identifies age, hemoglobin, cardiopulmonary resuscitation and preoperative systolic blood pressure as risk factors after multivariate regression analysis. This new risk score can help to identify patients that would not benefit from repair, but it can also potentially identify patients who would benefit and therefore lower turndown rates. The challenge for further research is to expand on validation of already existing promising risk scores in order to come to a risk model with optimal discrimination and calibration.

Momentary assessment of PTSD symptoms and sexual risk behavior in male OEF/OIF/OND Veterans.

PubMed

Black, Anne C; Cooney, Ned L; Justice, Amy C; Fiellin, Lynn E; Pietrzak, Robert H; Lazar, Christina M; Rosen, Marc I

2016-01-15

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in Veterans is associated with increased sexual risk behaviors, but the nature of this association is not well understood. Typical PTSD measurement deriving a summary estimate of symptom severity over a period of time precludes inferences about symptom variability, and whether momentary changes in symptom severity predict risk behavior. We assessed the feasibility of measuring daily PTSD symptoms, substance use, and high-risk sexual behavior in Veterans using ecological momentary assessment (EMA). Feasibility indicators were survey completion, PTSD symptom variability, and variability in rates of substance use and sexual risk behavior. Nine male Veterans completed web-based questionnaires by cell phone three times per day for 28 days. Median within-day survey completion rates maintained near 90%, and PTSD symptoms showed high within-person variability, ranging up to 59 points on the 80-point scale. Six Veterans reported alcohol or substance use, and substance users reported use of more than one drug. Eight Veterans reported 1 to 28 high-risk sexual events. Heightened PTSD-related negative affect and externalizing behaviors preceded high-risk sexual events. Greater PTSD symptom instability was associated with having multiple sexual partners in the 28-day period. These results are preliminary, given this small sample size, and multiple comparisons, and should be verified with larger Veteran samples. Results support the feasibility and utility of using of EMA to better understand the relationship between PTSD symptoms and sexual risk behavior in Veterans. Specific antecedent-risk behavior patterns provide promise for focused clinical interventions. Published by Elsevier B.V.

OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Fall risk assessment and prevention.

PubMed

Kline, Nancy E; Davis, Mary Elizabeth; Thom, Bridgette

2011-02-01

Patient falls are a common cause of morbidity and are the leading cause of injury deaths in adults age 65 years and older. Injuries sustained as result of falls in a cancer hospital are often severe, regardless of patient age, due to the nature of the underlying cancer. Falls are a nursing-sensitive indicator and nurses are in a unique position to assess, design, implement, and evaluate programs for fall risk reduction. We analyzed our nursing processes related to falls and fall prevention in conjunction with an evidence-based review, a research study to improve our fall risk-assessment process, and development of a comprehensive fall-reduction program. This article outlines how our institution developed a fall risk assessment for the oncology patient population, and utilized this assessment in a comprehensive nursing approach to fall prevention in both inpatient and outpatient settings.

Application of preliminary risk analysis at marble finishing plants in Recife's metropolitan area.

PubMed

de Melo Neto, Rútilo P; Kohlman Rabbani, Emilia R

2012-01-01

The finishing of marble occurs in quarries all over Brazil, being the most significant dimension of the ornamental stone sector, with 7,000 businesses. Recife's Metropolitan Area (RMR) contains approximately 106 marble quarries, 25 of them unionized. The study focused on the application of Preliminary Risk Analysis, conducted at two unionized quarries: M1, a small business; and the second, M2, considered a micro enterprise. In this analysis both the administrative and the productive sectors were evaluated. The fieldwork was done in the month of December 2010. The study revealed that the two quarries carried moderate risks in the administrative sector, mainly due to ergonomic factors, and that in the productive sectors the risks were high, specifically because of excess noise, dust material, and precarious electrical installations. Using the results of the qualitative analysis as a base, the need for quantitative study presents itself in order to determine the most adequate modes of protection to be of assistance in the management of these risks, guaranteeing the safety and health of the worker and consequently the improvement in productivity in this sector.

Air Quality Modeling Technical Support Document for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS Preliminary Interstate Transport Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In this technical support document (TSD) EPA describes the air quality modeling performed to support the 2015 ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) preliminary interstate transport assessment Notice of Data Availability (NODA).

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

PubMed

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barlow, Susan, E-mail: suebarlow@mistral.co.u; Schlatter, Josef; Federal Office of Public Health, Consumer Protection Directorate, Stauffacherstrasse 101, CH-8004 Zuerich

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitudemore » below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.« less

Preliminary viability assessment of Lake Mendocino forecast informed reservoir operations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jasperse, Jay; Ralph, Marty; Anderson, Michael; Brekke, Levi D.; Dillabough, Mike; Dettinger, Michael; Haynes, Alan; Hartman, Robert; Jones, Christy; Forbis, Joe; Rutten, Patrick; Talbot, Cary; Webb, Robert H.

2017-01-01

This report describes the preliminary viability assessment (PVA) of forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) for Lake Mendocino, which is located on the East Fork Russian River three miles east of Ukiah, California. The results described in this report represent the collective activities of the Lake Mendocino FIRO Steering Committee (SC) (SC members are named on the inside cover of the report). The SC consists of water managers and scientists from several federal, state, and local agencies, and universities who have teamed to evaluate whether current technology and scientific understanding can be utilized to improve reliability of meeting water management objectives of Lake Mendocino while not impairing flood protection. While the PVA provides an initial evaluation of the viability of FIRO as a concept, additional steps remain to complete the full viability assessment (FVA). Also, the PVA does not identify how FIRO strategies would be implemented. That effort would be the focus of the FVA, which builds off the analyses developed in the PVA. This report summarizes current Lake Mendocino operation and a preliminary analysis of FIRO alternatives, including analysis methods, results, and recommendations. A set of accompanying reports describes the analysis in detail. These are referred to herein as the Sonoma County Water Agency (SCWA) report, the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) report, and the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) report (SCWA 2017, USACE 2017, and CW3E 2017, respectively).

Ultrasonographic fetal well-being assessment, neonatal and postpartum findings of cloned pregnancies in cattle: A preliminary study on 10 fetuses and calves

PubMed Central

Buczinski, Sébastien; Fecteau, Gilles; Comeau, Geneviève; Boysen, Soren R.; Lefebvre, Réjean C.; Smith, Lawrence C.

2009-01-01

Cloned pregnancies in cattle are considered to be at risk due to a variety of fetal or adnexal abnormalities. Data is lacking concerning the possibility of transabdominal ultrasonography in the assessment of these high risk pregnancies. Transabdominal ultrasonography has rarely been reported in the assessment of bovine cloned pregnancies. Ten Holstein heifers carrying 8-month-old cloned fetuses were assessed by transabdominal ultrasonographic examination during the 3rd trimester of pregnancy. Fetal heart rates (FHR), movements, adnexal appearance, and placentome size were recorded. The outcome of the pregnancies was also noted and potential indicators of fetal demise recorded. Survival rate 1 week after birth was 30%. Mean FHR was 113 beats per minute (range: 92 to 128 bpm) during the fetal ultrasonography. No correlation between FHR and fetal activity was found. Fetal hyperactivity and imaging of hyperechoic particles in both allantoic and amniotic fluids were possible signs of fetal distress. Despite the size of the fetus and the deep bovine abdomen, fetal transabdominal ultrasonography can be performed in cattle. This preliminary study points to the necessity of further larger studies for defining normal and abnormal findings in bovine late pregnancy. PMID:19436477

Ultrasonographic fetal well-being assessment, neonatal and postpartum findings of cloned pregnancies in cattle: a preliminary study on 10 fetuses and calves.

PubMed

Buczinski, Sébastien; Fecteau, Gilles; Comeau, Geneviève; Boysen, Soren R; Lefebvre, Réjean C; Smith, Lawrence C

2009-03-01

Cloned pregnancies in cattle are considered to be at risk due to a variety of fetal or adnexal abnormalities. Data is lacking concerning the possibility of transabdominal ultrasonography in the assessment of these high risk pregnancies. Transabdominal ultrasonography has rarely been reported in the assessment of bovine cloned pregnancies. Ten Holstein heifers carrying 8-month-old cloned fetuses were assessed by transabdominal ultrasonographic examination during the 3rd trimester of pregnancy. Fetal heart rates (FHR), movements, adnexal appearance, and placentome size were recorded. The outcome of the pregnancies was also noted and potential indicators of fetal demise recorded. Survival rate 1 week after birth was 30%. Mean FHR was 113 beats per minute (range: 92 to 128 bpm) during the fetal ultrasonography. No correlation between FHR and fetal activity was found. Fetal hyperactivity and imaging of hyperechoic particles in both allantoic and amniotic fluids were possible signs of fetal distress. Despite the size of the fetus and the deep bovine abdomen, fetal transabdominal ultrasonography can be performed in cattle. This preliminary study points to the necessity of further larger studies for defining normal and abnormal findings in bovine late pregnancy.

Health Risk Assessments for Alumina Refineries

PubMed Central

Coffey, Patrick S.

2014-01-01

Objective: To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Methods: Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. Results: The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10−6. Conclusions: The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries. PMID:24806721

Ethics and transparent risk communication start with proper risk assessment methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oboni, Franco; Oboni, Cesar

2014-05-01

We will use throught this paper a "dialogue" between two professionals. One is aware of the misleading character of many risk assessments and wants to foster better approaches. A discomforting set of statements sets the background of the "story": public reactions to risk assessments are generally negative, the developer find it difficult to understand the reasons for general public negative reactions, many projects get often rejected without valid reasons by the public, anywhere in the world. Common practice approaches in Risk Assessment are discussed from the angle of public rejection, taking into account various studies that explicitly expose common practices limitations and voids. The hiatus between rational and well-balanced risk assessments and common practices is explored. Finally solutions to overcome the limitations of common practices and deliver to the public more realistic risk assessment on which to build a widespread consensus are reviewed. The paper conclusions relate to the need of: properly communicating risk throughout the life of a project, from cradle to grave, avoiding conflict of interest, having estimates that are understandable to foster good understanding of what a risk assessment can bring to better Human existence, in an ethical and fair way. The paper delivers a list of possible remedies and shows that "Common Practices" do not equate to "Best Practices": common practices are not to be proposed/used any longer if we want to avoid public distrust and misrepresentations. Many of the "modern" issues ranging from public distrust to insurance denial could be relieved or mitigated ahead of time if misrepresentation was kept at bay using five simple rules. Common practice Risk Assessments, especially those developed under conflict of interest situations, generally misrepresent risks and fail to give the "big picture", hence do not help taking valid decision and are prone to generating/fostering public distrust.

76 FR 63628 - Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-13

...] Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR) AGENCY: Federal... Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR). DATES: Comments must be received by November 14, 2011...., Washington, DC 20472-3100. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Michael M. Grimm, Individual Assistance Director...

Preliminary assessment of pavement damage due to heavier loads on Louisiana highways : technical summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-05-01

The principal objective of this study is to provide a preliminary assessment of the effect of increasing the gross vehicle weight (GVW) on Louisiana type 2 and type 6 vehicles as allowed by special permits, on pavement costs to rehabilitate the damag...

Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2015-04-01

Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

PubMed Central

Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

2016-01-01

Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

Chemical Mixtures Health Risk Assessment: Overview of Exposure Assessment, Whole Mixtures Assessments; Basic Concepts

EPA Science Inventory

This problems-based, half-day, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks f...

Army Independent Risk Assessment Guidebook

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-01

17 5.4.2 Step 2: Gather relevant technology and alternative information............... 17 5.4.3 Step 3: Secure SME support for readiness...level assessment. ................... 17 5.4.4 Step 4: SMEs assess TRL, IRL, and MRL for each technology. .............. 17 5.4.5 Step 5: Identify...technical risks, risk ratings, and mitigations. .................. 20 5.4.6 Step 6: SMEs identify key technologies

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.

1997-08-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities andmore » that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.« less

Falls risk assessment in older patients in hospital.

PubMed

Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata

2016-07-27

Falls are the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, usually affecting older patients. All hospitals in NHS organisations develop risk prevention policies that include falls risk assessment. Falls risk assessment involves the use of risk screening tools, aimed at identifying patients at increased risk of falls, and risk assessment tools, which identify a patient's risk factors for falls. Various risk screening tools have been used in clinical practice, but no single tool is able to identify all patients at risk of falls or to accurately exclude all those who are not at risk of falls. Guidelines recommend that patients aged 65 years and over who are admitted to hospital should be considered at high risk of falls and that a multifactorial falls risk assessment should be performed. Therefore, falls risk assessment tools should be used to identify the risk factors for each inpatient aged 65 years or over, in order to determine the most appropriate care plan for falls prevention and to maximise patient mobility and independence.

RISK AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN WATER-BASED RECREATION

EPA Science Inventory

The great number of individuals using recreational water resources presents a challenge with regard to protecting the health of these recreationists. Risk assessment provides a framework for characterizing the risk associated with exposure to microbial hazards and for managing r...

Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at ‘high risk’: a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools

PubMed Central

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-01-01

Background Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. Aim This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Design and setting Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Method Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes®, Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Results Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at ‘high risk’ followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). Conclusion The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. PMID:26541180

Preconception risk assessment of infertile couples

PubMed Central

Nekuei, Nafisehsadat; Kazemi, Ashraf; Ehsanpur, Soheila; Beigi, Nastaran Mohammad Ali

2013-01-01

Background: With regard to the importance of preconception conditions in maternal health and fertility, preconception risk assessment makes treatment trends and pregnancy outcome more successful among infertile couples. This study has tried to investigate preconception risk assessment in infertile couples. Materials and Methods: This is a descriptive analytical survey conducted on 268 subjects, selected by convenient sampling, referring to Isfahan infertility centers (Iran). The data were collected by questionnaires through interview and clients’ medical records. Pre-pregnancy risk assessment including history taking (personal, familial, medical, medications, menstruation, and pregnancy), exams (physical, genital, and vital signs), and routine test requests (routine, cervix, infections, and biochemical tests) was performed in the present study. Results: The results showed that the lowest percentage of taking a complete history was for personal history (0.4%) and the highest was for history of menstruation (100%). The lowest percentage of complete exam was for physical exam (3.4%) and the highest for genital exam (100%). With regard to laboratory assessment, the highest percentage was for routine tests (36.6%) and the lowest was for infection tests (0.4%). Conclusion: Based o the results of the present study, most of the risk assessment components are poorly assessed in infertile couples. With regard to the importance of infertility treatment, spending high costs and time on that, and existence of high-risk individuals as well as treatment failures, health providers should essentially pay special attention to preconception risk assessment in infertile couples in order to enhance the chance of success and promote treatment outcome. PMID:23983724

Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

2009-01-01

A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

Risk assessment for juvenile justice: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Schwalbe, Craig S

2007-10-01

Risk assessment instruments are increasingly employed by juvenile justice settings to estimate the likelihood of recidivism among delinquent juveniles. In concert with their increased use, validation studies documenting their predictive validity have increased in number. The purpose of this study was to assess the average predictive validity of juvenile justice risk assessment instruments and to identify risk assessment characteristics that are associated with higher predictive validity. A search of the published and grey literature yielded 28 studies that estimated the predictive validity of 28 risk assessment instruments. Findings of the meta-analysis were consistent with effect sizes obtained in larger meta-analyses of criminal justice risk assessment instruments and showed that brief risk assessment instruments had smaller effect sizes than other types of instruments. However, this finding is tentative owing to limitations of the literature.

Source-term development for a contaminant plume for use by multimedia risk assessment models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whelan, Gene; McDonald, John P.; Taira, Randal Y.; Gnanapragasam, Emmanuel K.; Yu, Charley; Lew, Christine S.; Mills, William B.

2000-02-01

Multimedia modelers from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and US Department of Energy (DOE) are collaborating to conduct a comprehensive and quantitative benchmarking analysis of four intermedia models: MEPAS, MMSOILS, PRESTO, and RESRAD. These models represent typical analytically based tools that are used in human-risk and endangerment assessments at installations containing radioactive and hazardous contaminants. The objective is to demonstrate an approach for developing an adequate source term by simplifying an existing, real-world, 90Sr plume at DOE's Hanford installation in Richland, WA, for use in a multimedia benchmarking exercise between MEPAS, MMSOILS, PRESTO, and RESRAD. Source characteristics and a release mechanism are developed and described; also described is a typical process and procedure that an analyst would follow in developing a source term for using this class of analytical tool in a preliminary assessment.

Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

Cancer.gov

Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

2016-01-01

NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

Presidential Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management

EPA Science Inventory

September 26, 1997. The Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, which was mandated as part of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, was disbanded on August 31, 1997, with some staff work continuing into September. The reports and asso...

Site-Specific Rules for Risk Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tucker, William; And Others

1994-01-01

This article examines the development of regulatory guidance upon which the technology of risk assessment has matured into a decision-making method of choice. It examines in particular the role of site-specific risk assessment at Superfund sites. (LZ)

A new methodology for assessment of pectus excavatum correction after bar removal in Nuss procedure: Preliminary study.

PubMed

Gomes-Fonseca, João; Vilaça, João L; Henriques-Coelho, Tiago; Direito-Santos, Bruno; Pinho, António C M; Fonseca, Jaime C; Correia-Pinto, Jorge

2017-07-01

The objective is to present a new methodology to assess quantitatively the impact of bar removal on the anterior chest wall, among patients with pectus excavatum who have undergone the Nuss procedure, and present a preliminary study using this methodology. We propose to acquire, for each patient, the surface of the anterior chest wall using a three-dimensional laser scanner at subsequent time points (short term: before and after surgery; long term: follow-up visit, 6months, and 12months after surgery). After surfaces postprocessing, the changes are assessed by overlapping and measuring the distances between surfaces. In this preliminary study, three time points were acquired and two assessments were performed: before vs after bar removal (early) and before vs 2-8weeks after bar removal (interim). In 21 patients, the signed distances and volumes between surfaces were computed and the data analysis was performed. This methodology revealed useful for monitoring changes in the anterior chest wall. On average, the mean, maximum, and volume variations, in the early assessment, were -0.1±0.1cm, -0.6±0.2cm, and 47.8±22.2cm 3 , respectively; and, in the interim assessment, were -0.5±0.2cm, -1.3±0.4cm, and 122.1±47.3cm 3 , respectively (p<0.05). Data analysis revealed that the time the bar was in situ was inversely and significantly correlated with postretraction and was a relevant predictor of its decrease following surgery (p<0.05). Additionally, gender and age suggested influencing the outcome. This methodology is novel, objective and safe, helping on follow-up of pectus excavatum patients. Moreover, the preliminary study suggests that the time the bar was in situ may be the main determinant of the anterior chest wall retraction following bar removal. Further studies should continue to corroborate and reinforce the preliminary findings, by increasing the sample size and performing long-term assessments. III. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Preliminary psycometric assessment of the Brazilian version of the DISABKIDS Atopic Dermatitis Module.

PubMed

Deon, Keila Cristiane; Santos, Danielle Maria de Souza Sério dos; Bullinger, Monika; Santos, Claudia Benedita dos

2011-12-01

To assess preliminary psychometric properties of the Brazilian Portuguese version of a questionnaire for measuring health-related quality of life in children and adolescents with atopic dermatitis. Cross-sectional study with a sample consisting of 52 children and adolescents aged 8 to 18 diagnosed with atopic dermatitis, and their parents or caregivers, selected at the dermatology department of a university hospital in the city of São Paulo, Southeast Brazil, in 2009. Construct validity, internal consistency and agreement between the responses of children and adolescents and their parents or caregivers were assessed in the Brazilian Portuguese version of the DISABKIDS-Atopic Dermatitis Module (ADM). Adequate internal consistency was found with Cronbach's alpha coefficients of 0.7024/0.8124 and 0.7239/0.8604. The multitrait multimethod analysis for assessing convergent validity showed measures higher than 0.30 for all items. The analysis showed good discriminant validity. Agreement between child self-report and parent proxy-report was evaluated using intra-class correlation with measures impact and social stigma of disease of 0.8173 and 0.7629, respectively. The study results showed that the DISABKIDS-ADM can be used by Brazilian researchers after its complete validation as it showed adequate preliminary psychometric properties and can be considered a valid, reliable instrument.

Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

2013-01-01

A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

Toward Probabilistic Risk Analyses - Development of a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Crescent City, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, F. I.; Leveque, R. J.; Hatheway, D.; Metzger, N.

2011-12-01

Risk is defined in many ways, but most are consistent with Crichton's [1999] definition based on the ''risk triangle'' concept and the explicit identification of three risk elements: ''Risk is the probability of a loss, and this depends on three elements: hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. If any of these three elements in risk increases or decreases, then the risk increases or decreases respectively." The World Meteorological Organization, for example, cites Crichton [1999] and then defines risk as [WMO, 2008] Risk = function (Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure) while the Asian Disaster Reduction Center adopts the more general expression [ADRC, 2005] Risk = function (Hazard, Vulnerability, Exposure) In practice, probabilistic concepts are invariably invoked, and at least one of the three factors are specified as probabilistic in nature. The Vulnerability and Exposure factors are defined in multiple ways in the relevant literature; but the Hazard factor, which is the focus of our presentation, is generally understood to deal only with the physical aspects of the phenomena and, in particular, the ability of the phenomena to inflict harm [Thywissen, 2006]. A Hazard factor can be estimated by a methodology known as Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) [González, et al., 2009]. We will describe the PTHA methodology and provide an example -- the results of a previous application to Seaside, OR. We will also present preliminary results for a PTHA of Crescent City, CA -- a pilot project and coastal modeling/mapping effort funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Region IX office as part of the new California Coastal Analysis and Mapping Project (CCAMP). CCAMP and the PTHA in Crescent City are being conducted under the nationwide FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) Program which focuses on providing communities with flood information and tools they can use to enhance their mitigation plans and better protect their citizens.

Chemical stimulation in unconventional hydrocarbons extraction in the USA: a preliminary environmental risk assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutra, Emilie; Spada, Matteo; Burgherr, Peter

2016-04-01

While the exploitation of unconventional resources recently shows an extensive development, the stimulation techniques in use in this domain arouse growing public concerns. Often in the shadow of the disputed hydraulic fracturing process, the matrix acidizing is however a complementary or alternative procedure to enhance the reservoir connectivity. Although acidizing processes are widespread within the traditional hydrocarbons sources exploration, the matrix acidizing does not appear to be commonly used in unconventional hydrocarbons formations due to their low permeability. Nonetheless, this process has been recently applied to the Monterey formation, a shale oil play in California. These stimulation fluids are composed by various chemicals, what represents a matter of concern for public as well as for authorities. As a consequence, a risk assessment implying an exposure and toxicity analysis is needed. Focusing on site surface accidents, e.g., leak of a chemical from a storage tank, we develop in this study concentration scenarios for different exposure pathways to estimate the potential environmental risk associated with the use of specific hazardous substances in the matrix acidizing process for unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs in the USA. Primary, information about the usage of different hazardous substances have been collected in order to extract the most frequently used chemicals. Afterwards, a probabilistic estimation of the environmental risk associated with the use of these chemicals is carried out by comparing the Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PEC) distribution with the Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNEC) value. The latter is collected from a literature review, whereas the PEC is estimated as probability distribution concentrations in different environmental compartments (e.g., soil) built upon various predefined accident scenarios. By applying a probabilistic methodology for the concentrations, the level at which the used chemicals

Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment: Problem Formulation

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Before the ecological risk assessment is conducted, risk assessors and risk managers engage in a planning dialogue to ensure that the risk assessment will enable the risk managers to make informed environmental decisions.

A Preliminary Assessment of Social Vulnerability in Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazra, Sugata; Islam, Nabiul

2017-04-01

The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta has a high population density and is exposed to rapid environmental changes making it one of the most stressed deltas in the world. The low-lying coastal areas of the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta comprise 19 coastal districts of Bangladesh and two districts in India with significant land areas within 5 meters of sea level has a population of more than 50 million people at an average population density of 1100 people/km2. This population is exposed to a range of hazards such as severe cyclones, coastal erosion, and salinization, exacerbated by climate change and subsidence which imply severe stress on the resource dependent community of this region. This situation is further complicated by poverty and limited social well-being such as poor access to education/ health/ drinking water/ sanitation facilities, and lack of food and energy security. Thus assessing social vulnerability can help to understand which communities are susceptible to environmental change and guide adaptation actions to address these threats. This preliminary study aims to construct a socio-economic index by assessing the social vulnerability of coastal communities of GBM Delta taking consistent and common secondary data from the Census of India and the Bangladesh Bureau of Statisticsand applyinga Principle Component Analysis(PCA) methodology. Several statistical tests like Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) have also been used to assess the appropriateness of using PCA. Among the selected common indicators, five major components are found to explain majority of the total variation of social vulnerability across the delta: (1) poverty, (2) dependency ratio, (3) agriculture dependency, (4) lack of sanitation and (5) existence of mud houses. The most important observation is the existence of a social vulnerability gradient across the coast. In other words, socially marginalised and vulnerable communities are found on the Delta margin in both India and

Caries Risk Assessment Item Importance

PubMed Central

Chaffee, B.W.; Featherstone, J.D.B.; Gansky, S.A.; Cheng, J.; Zhan, L.

2016-01-01

Caries risk assessment (CRA) is widely recommended for dental caries management. Little is known regarding how practitioners use individual CRA items to determine risk and which individual items independently predict clinical outcomes in children younger than 6 y. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of pediatric CRA items in dental providers’ decision making regarding patient risk and in association with clinically evident caries, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. CRA information was abstracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children initially aged 6 to 72 mo at a university pediatric dentistry clinic (n = 3,810 baseline; n = 1,315 with follow-up). The 17-item CRA form included caries risk indicators, caries protective items, and clinical indicators. Conditional random forests classification trees were implemented to identify and assign variable importance to CRA items independently associated with baseline high-risk designation, baseline evident tooth decay, and follow-up evident decay. Thirteen individual CRA items, including all clinical indicators and all but 1 risk indicator, were independently and statistically significantly associated with student/resident providers’ caries risk designation. Provider-assigned baseline risk category was strongly associated with follow-up decay, which increased from low (20.4%) to moderate (30.6%) to high/extreme risk patients (68.7%). Of baseline CRA items, before adjustment, 12 were associated with baseline decay and 7 with decay at follow-up; however, in the conditional random forests models, only the clinical indicators (evident decay, dental plaque, and recent restoration placement) and 1 risk indicator (frequent snacking) were independently and statistically significantly associated with future disease, for which baseline evident decay was the strongest predictor. In this predominantly high-risk population under caries-preventive care, more individual CRA items

Risk assessing study for Bio-CCS technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, A.; Sakamoto, Y.; Kano, Y.; Higashino, H.; Suzumura, M.; Tosha, T.; Nakao, S.; Komai, T.

2013-12-01

We have started a new R&D project titled 'Energy resources creation by geo-microbes and CCS'. It is new concept of a technology which cultivate methanogenic geo-microbes in reservoirs of geological CCS conditions to produce methane gas effectively and safely. As one of feasibility studies, we are evaluating risks around its new Bio-CCS technology. Our consideration involves risk scenarios about Bio-CCS in geological strata, marine environment, surface facilities, ambient air and injection sites. To cover risk scenarios in these areas, we are carrying out a sub-project with five sub-themes. Four sub-themes out of five are researches for identifying risk scenarios: A) Underground strata and injection well, B) Ambient air, C) Surface facilities and D) Seabed. We are developing risk assessment tool,named GERAS-CO2GS (Geo-environmental Risk Assessment System,CO2 Geological Storage Risk Assessment System. We are going to combine identified risk scenarios into GERAS-CO2GS accordingly. It is expected that new GERAS-CO2GS will contribute to risk assessment and management for not only Bio-CCS but also individual injection sites, and facilitate under standing of risks among legislators and concerned peoples around injection site.

Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment (NAS Final ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead. Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. People are exposed to a variety of chemicals throughout their daily lives. To protect public health, regulators use risk assessments to examine the effects of chemical exposures. This book provides guidance for assessing the risk of phthalates, chemicals found in many consumer products that have been shown to affect the development of the male reproductive system of laboratory animals. Because people are exposed to multiple phthalates and other chemicals that affect male reproductive development, a cumulative risk assessment should be conducted that evaluates the combined effects of exposure to all these chemicals. The book suggests an approach for cumulative risk assessment that can serve as a model for evaluating the health risks of other types of chemicals.

The evolution of violence risk assessment.

PubMed

Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

2014-10-01

Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

Assessing Suicide Risk Among Callers to Crisis Hotlines: A Confirmatory Factor Analysis

PubMed Central

Witte, Tracy K.; Gould, Madelyn S.; Munfakh, Jimmie Lou Harris; Kleinman, Marjorie; Joiner, Thomas E.; Kalafat, John

2012-01-01

Our goal was to investigate the factor structure of a risk assessment tool utilized by suicide hotlines and to determine the predictive validity of the obtained factors in predicting subsequent suicidal behavior. 1,085 suicidal callers to crisis hotlines were divided into three sub-samples, which allowed us to conduct an independent Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), EFA in a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (EFA/CFA) framework, and CFA. Similar to previous factor analytic studies (Beck et al., 1997; Holden & DeLisle, 2005; Joiner, Rudd, & Rajab, 1997; Witte et al., 2006), we found consistent evidence for a two-factor solution, with one factor representing a more pernicious form of suicide risk (i.e., Resolved Plans and Preparations) and one factor representing more mild suicidal ideation (i.e., Suicidal Desire and Ideation). Using structural equation modeling techniques, we found preliminary evidence that the Resolved Plans and Preparations factor trended toward being more predictive of suicidal ideation than the Suicidal Desire and Ideation factor. This factor analytic study is the first longitudinal study of the obtained factors. PMID:20578186

Ares-I-X Vehicle Preliminary Range Safety Malfunction Turn Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beaty, James R.; Starr, Brett R.; Gowan, John W., Jr.

2008-01-01

Ares-I-X is the designation given to the flight test version of the Ares-I rocket (also known as the Crew Launch Vehicle - CLV) being developed by NASA. As part of the preliminary flight plan approval process for the test vehicle, a range safety malfunction turn analysis was performed to support the launch area risk assessment and vehicle destruct criteria development processes. Several vehicle failure scenarios were identified which could cause the vehicle trajectory to deviate from its normal flight path, and the effects of these failures were evaluated with an Ares-I-X 6 degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) digital simulation, using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories Version 2 (POST2) simulation framework. The Ares-I-X simulation analysis provides output files containing vehicle state information, which are used by other risk assessment and vehicle debris trajectory simulation tools to determine the risk to personnel and facilities in the vicinity of the launch area at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and to develop the vehicle destruct criteria used by the flight test range safety officer. The simulation analysis approach used for this study is described, including descriptions of the failure modes which were considered and the underlying assumptions and ground rules of the study, and preliminary results are presented, determined by analysis of the trajectory deviation of the failure cases, compared with the expected vehicle trajectory.

NEUROTOXICOLOGY IN REGULATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The paper is to be published in the proceedings of a conference on learning disabilities. It summarizes the need for neurotoxicology data in risk assessment, the regulatory agencies which have authority to require toxicity testing, the overall process of risk assessment and the p...

Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebner, G.

2009-04-01

Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

Appraising the risk matrix 2000 static sex offender risk assessment tool.

PubMed

Tully, Ruth J; Browne, Kevin D

2015-02-01

This critical appraisal explores the reliability and validity of the Risk Matrix 2000 static sex offender risk assessment tool that is widely used in the United Kingdom. The Risk Matrix 2000 has to some extent been empirically validated for use with adult male sex offenders; however, this review highlights that further research into the validity of this static tool with sex offender subgroups or types is necessary in order to improve practical utility. The Risk Matrix 2000 relies on static risk predictors, thus it is limited in scope. This article argues that the addition of dynamic items that have been shown to be predictive of sexual recidivism would further enhance the tool. The paper argues that adding dynamic risk items would fit better with a rehabilitative approach to sex offender risk management and assessment. This would also provide a means by which to effectively plan sex offender treatment and evaluate individual offenders' progress in treatment; however, difficulties remain in identifying and assessing dynamic risk factors of sexual offending and so further research is required. © The Author(s) 2013.

Developing a pressure ulcer risk factor minimum data set and risk assessment framework.

PubMed

Coleman, Susanne; Nelson, E Andrea; Keen, Justin; Wilson, Lyn; McGinnis, Elizabeth; Dealey, Carol; Stubbs, Nikki; Muir, Delia; Farrin, Amanda; Dowding, Dawn; Schols, Jos M G A; Cuddigan, Janet; Berlowitz, Dan; Jude, Edward; Vowden, Peter; Bader, Dan L; Gefen, Amit; Oomens, Cees W J; Schoonhoven, Lisette; Nixon, Jane

2014-10-01

To agree a draft pressure ulcer risk factor Minimum Data Set to underpin the development of a new evidenced-based Risk Assessment Framework. A recent systematic review identified the need for a pressure ulcer risk factor Minimum Data Set and development and validation of an evidenced-based pressure ulcer Risk Assessment Framework. This was undertaken through the Pressure UlceR Programme Of reSEarch (RP-PG-0407-10056), funded by the National Institute for Health Research and incorporates five phases. This article reports phase two, a consensus study. Consensus study. A modified nominal group technique based on the Research and Development/University of California at Los Angeles appropriateness method. This incorporated an expert group, review of the evidence and the views of a Patient and Public Involvement service user group. Data were collected December 2010-December 2011. The risk factors and assessment items of the Minimum Data Set (including immobility, pressure ulcer and skin status, perfusion, diabetes, skin moisture, sensory perception and nutrition) were agreed. In addition, a draft Risk Assessment Framework incorporating all Minimum Data Set items was developed, comprising a two stage assessment process (screening and detailed full assessment) and decision pathways. The draft Risk Assessment Framework will undergo further design and pre-testing with clinical nurses to assess and improve its usability. It will then be evaluated in clinical practice to assess its validity and reliability. The Minimum Data Set could be used in future for large scale risk factor studies informing refinement of the Risk Assessment Framework. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The timber economy of the Mid-Atlantic region: some preliminary results from the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment

Treesearch

P.B. Aruna; D. Evan Mercer

1999-01-01

The Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA) is a multi-agency effort headed by the USEPA to assess the health and sustainability of ecosystems in an 8 state region. We present some preliminary results on the economic impact of forest industries from the socio-economic component of the MAIA forest assessment. Employment and income trends between1975-1995 are examined...

INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on complex animal models that better replicate human behavior and a wider array of molecular and mechanistic data relevant to interpreting the underlying cause(s) of toxicity. However, modern neurotoxicology studies are often more nuanced and complicated than traditional studies, and they often vary considerably in evaluation methods from one study to the next, impeding comparisons. This can pose particular difficulties for risk assessors, especially given the recent demand for chemical risk assessments to be more systematic and transparent. This presentation will introduce and provide some examples of specific challenges in neurotoxicity assessments of environmental chemicals. Some of these challenges are relatively new to the field, such as the incorporation of data on neuron-supportive glial cells into hazard characterization, while other challenges have persisted for several decades, but only recently are studies being designed to evaluate them, including analyses of latent neurotoxicity. The examples provided illustrate some future research areas of interest for scientists and risk assessors examining human neurotoxicity risk. This abstract will be presented to internal U.S. Food and Drug A

NATIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TOXICS RISKS ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sources. This national-scale effort will be initiated for the base year 1996 and repeated every three years thereafter to track trends and inform program development. Provide broad-scale understanding of inhalation risks for a subset of atmospherically-emitted air toxics to inform further data-gathering efforts and priority-setting for the EPA's Air Toxics Programs.

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Elwood, Richard W

2016-12-01

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

Completion of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry.

PubMed

Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma

2009-04-01

There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.

Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

PubMed

Turturro, A; Hart, R W

1987-01-01

A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

PubMed

Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

2018-01-01

Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

PubMed

Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

2015-01-01

Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

PubMed

Wallace, W Jon

2007-03-01

Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

REGIONAL SCALE COMPARATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) is an approach to regional-scale ecological risk assessment that is currently under development by EPA's Office of Research and Development. The pilot assessment will be done for the mid-Atlantic region and builds on data collected for th...

Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Roskilde University hosted a November 2015 workshop on “Environmental Risk – Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World”. Thirty attendees from 9 countries developed consensus recommendations regarding: implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process involving both universal and site-, region-, or problem-specific protection goals; addressing societal issues; risk management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. We encourage both cross- and inter-disciplinary approaches to address 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and non-chemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk management process; 5) consider socio-economics and increase transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference con

A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

Assessing carcinogenic risks associated with ingesting arsenic in farmed smeltfish (Ayu, Plecoglossus altirelis) in aseniasis-endemic area of Taiwan.

PubMed

Lee, Jin-Jing; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liang, Ching-Ping; Liu, Chen-Wuing

2008-09-15

This study spatially analyzed potential carcinogenic risks associated with ingesting arsenic (As) contents in aquacultural smeltfish (Plecoglossus altirelis) from the Lanyang Plain of northeastern Taiwan. Sequential indicator simulation (SIS) was adopted to reproduce As exposure distributions in groundwater based on their three-dimensional variability. A target cancer risk (TR) associated with ingesting As in aquacultural smeltfish was employed to evaluate the potential risk to human health. The probabilistic risk assessment determined by Monte Carlo simulation and SIS is used to propagate properly the uncertainty of parameters. Safe and hazardous aquacultural regions were mapped to elucidate the safety of groundwater use. The TRs determined from the risks at the 95th percentiles exceed one millionth, indicating that ingesting smeltfish that are farmed in the highly As-affected regions represents a potential cancer threat to human health. The 95th percentile of TRs is considered in formulating a strategy for the aquacultural use of groundwater in the preliminary stage.

Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

PubMed

Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

2014-12-01

Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

Environmental risk assessment of pharmaceutical drug substances--conceptual considerations.

PubMed

Länge, Reinhard; Dietrich, Daniel

2002-05-10

Drugs, i.e. active ingredients of human medicinal products, may be introduced into the environment after use in patients by sewage effluent pathways and consequently are detected at low concentrations in sewage effluents and in surface waters. Legal requirements in a number of geographical regions (Europe, US, and intended in Canada) demand environmental risk assessments (ERA) for new drug substances. Existing regulatory concepts of ERA are based initially on a set of short-term ecotoxicological studies in three to four different species, environmental behavior and the application of assessment factors to correct for the ERA inherent uncertainty. Based on theoretical considerations and the experience with a very limited, but well investigated, number of examples while considering that drugs are highly biologically active compounds, the appropriateness of this risk assessment procedure for all drug substances might be questioned. Indeed, e.g. long-term effects may occur at much lower concentrations and follow different toxicodynamic mechanism than extrapolated from short-term studies., In such cases, the application of assessment factors for deriving chronic no-observed effect concentration (NOECs) appears to be problematic. Although long-term tests with a variety of organisms would provide a complete database for the evaluation of the environmental risks, this is unachievable for all drugs due to time, money and animal welfare constraints. In order to avoid unnecessary testing, a concept is presented, which makes use of pharmacological and toxicological, as well as pharmaco- and toxicokinetic information derived from mammals during drug substance development. Useful data for adoption in a case-by-case testing strategy can be obtained by evaluating (a) the pharmacological activity, which indicates specific targets in mammalian species and may allow for an analysis, whether a similar target is available in aquatic species; (b) the mammalian toxicity, which may

Violence risk assessment as a medical intervention: ethical tensions

PubMed Central

Roychowdhury, Ashimesh; Adshead, Gwen

2014-01-01

Risk assessment differs from other medical interventions in that the welfare of the patient is not the immediate object of the intervention. However, improving the risk assessment process may reduce the chance of risk assessment itself being unjust. We explore the ethical arguments in relation to risk assessment as a medical intervention, drawing analogies, where applicable, with ethical arguments raised by general medical investigations. The article concludes by supporting the structured professional judgement approach as a method of risk assessment that is most consistent with the respect for principles of medical ethics. Recommendations are made for the future direction of risk assessment indicated by ethical theory. PMID:25237503

How TK-TD and population models for aquatic macrophytes could support the risk assessment for plant protection products.

PubMed

Hommen, Udo; Schmitt, Walter; Heine, Simon; Brock, Theo Cm; Duquesne, Sabine; Manson, Phil; Meregalli, Giovanna; Ochoa-Acuña, Hugo; van Vliet, Peter; Arts, Gertie

2016-01-01

This case study of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) workshop MODELINK demonstrates the potential use of mechanistic effects models for macrophytes to extrapolate from effects of a plant protection product observed in laboratory tests to effects resulting from dynamic exposure on macrophyte populations in edge-of-field water bodies. A standard European Union (EU) risk assessment for an example herbicide based on macrophyte laboratory tests indicated risks for several exposure scenarios. Three of these scenarios are further analyzed using effect models for 2 aquatic macrophytes, the free-floating standard test species Lemna sp., and the sediment-rooted submerged additional standard test species Myriophyllum spicatum. Both models include a toxicokinetic (TK) part, describing uptake and elimination of the toxicant, a toxicodynamic (TD) part, describing the internal concentration-response function for growth inhibition, and a description of biomass growth as a function of environmental factors to allow simulating seasonal dynamics. The TK-TD models are calibrated and tested using laboratory tests, whereas the growth models were assumed to be fit for purpose based on comparisons of predictions with typical growth patterns observed in the field. For the risk assessment, biomass dynamics are predicted for the control situation and for several exposure levels. Based on specific protection goals for macrophytes, preliminary example decision criteria are suggested for evaluating the model outputs. The models refined the risk indicated by lower tier testing for 2 exposure scenarios, while confirming the risk associated for the third. Uncertainties related to the experimental and the modeling approaches and their application in the risk assessment are discussed. Based on this case study and the assumption that the models prove suitable for risk assessment once fully evaluated, we recommend that 1) ecological scenarios be developed that are also

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

Assessing the Fire Risk for a Historic Hangar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Datta, Koushik; Morrison, Richard S.

2010-01-01

NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is evaluating options of reuse of its historic Hangar 1. As a part of this evaluation, a qualitative fire risk assessment study was performed to evaluate the potential threat of combustion of the historic hangar. The study focused on the fire risk trade-off of either installing or not installing a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System in the Hangar 1 deck areas. The assessment methodology was useful in discussing the important issues among various groups within the Center. Once the methodology was deemed acceptable, the results were assessed. The results showed that the risk remained in the same risk category, whether Hangar 1 does or does not have a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System. Note that the methodology assessed the risk to Hangar 1 and not the risk to an aircraft in the hangar. If one had a high value aircraft, the aircraft risk analysis could potentially show a different result. The assessed risk results were then communicated to management and other stakeholders.

Preliminary risk assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rice, E. E.; Denning, R. S.; Friedlander, A. L.

1982-01-01

Safety guidelines are presented. Waste form, waste processing and payload fabrication facilities, shipping casks and ground transport vehicles, payload primary container/core, radiation shield, reentry systems, launch site facilities, uprooted space shuttle launch vehicle, Earth packing orbits, orbit transfer systems, and space destination are discussed. Disposed concepts and risks are then discussed.

Landscape ecological risk assessment study in arid land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Lu; Amut, Aniwaer; Shi, Qingdong; Wang, Gary Z.

2007-09-01

The ecosystem risk assessment is an essential decision making system for predicting the reconstruction and recovery of a damaged ecosystem after intensive mankind activities. The sustainability of environment and resources of the lake ecosystem in arid districts have been paid close attention to by international communities as well as numerous experts and scholars. The ecological risk assessment offered a scientific foundation for making the decision and execution of ecological risk management. Bosten Lake, the largest inland freshwater lake in China, is the main water source of the industrial and agricultural production as well as the local residence in Yanqi basin, Kuara city and Yuri County in the southern Xinjiang. Bosten Lake also provides a direct water source for emergency transportation in the Lower Reaches of Tarim River. However, with the intensive utilizations of water and soil resources, the environmental condition in the Bosten Lake has become more and more serious. In this study, the theory and method of landscape ecological risk assessment has been practiced using 3S technologies combined with the frontier theory of landscape ecology. Defining the mainly risk resource including flood, drought, water pollution and rich nutrition of water has been evaluated based on the ecosystem risk assessment system. The main process includes five stages: regional natural resources analysis, risk receptor selection, risk sources evaluation, exposure and hazard analysis, and integrated risk assessment. Based on the risk assessment results, the environmental risk management countermeasure has been determined.

Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

Formaldehyde risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

Risk assessment analysis of the future technical unit dedicated to the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities.

PubMed

Grelier, S; Thetio, M; Quentin, V; Achache, V; Sanchez, N; Leroux, V; Durand, E; Pequignot, R

2011-03-01

The National Hospital of Saint Maurice (HNSM) for Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation aims at strengthening its position as a pivot rehabilitation and physical therapy center. The opening in 2011 of a new unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities meets this objective. This project includes several parts: clinical, financial, architectural, organizational, applied clinical research as well as dealing with medical equipments and information system. This study focuses on the risk assessment of this future technical unit. This study was conducted by a group of professionals working for the hospital. It started with the design of a functional model to better comprehend the system to be analyzed. Risk assessment consists in confronting this functional model to a list of dangers in order to determine the vulnerable areas of the system. Then the team designed some scenarios to identify the causes, securities barriers and consequences in order to rank the risks. The analysis targeted various dangers, e.g. political, strategic, financial, economical, marketing, clinical and operational. The team identified more than 70 risky scenarios. For 75% of them the criticality level was deemed initially tolerable and under control or unacceptable. The implementation of an action plan for reducing the level of risks before opening this technical unit brought the system down to an acceptable level at 66%. A year prior to opening this technical unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities, conducting this preliminary risk assessment, with its exhaustive and rigorous methodology, enabled the concerned professionals to work together around an action plan for reducing the risks. 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The application of quantitative risk assessment to microbial food safety risks.

PubMed

Jaykus, L A

1996-01-01

Regulatory programs and guidelines for the control of foodborne microbial agents have existed in the U.S. for nearly 100 years. However, increased awareness of the scope and magnitude of foodborne disease, as well as the emergence of previously unrecognized human pathogens transmitted via the foodborne route, have prompted regulatory officials to consider new and improved strategies to reduce the health risks associated with pathogenic microorganisms in foods. Implementation of these proposed strategies will involve definitive costs for a finite level of risk reduction. While regulatory decisions regarding the management of foodborne disease risk have traditionally been done with the aid of the scientific community, a formal conceptual framework for the evaluation of health risks from pathogenic microorganisms in foods is warranted. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA), which is formally defined as the technical assessment of the nature and magnitude of a risk caused by a hazard, provides such a framework. Reproducing microorganisms in foods present a particular challenge to QRA because both their introduction and numbers may be affected by numerous factors within the food chain, with all of these factors representing significant stages in food production, handling, and consumption, in a farm-to-table type of approach. The process of QRA entails four designated phases: (1) hazard identification, (2) exposure assessment, (3) dose-response assessment, and (4) risk characterization. Specific analytical tools are available to accomplish the analyses required for each phase of the QRA. The purpose of this paper is to provide a description of the conceptual framework for quantitative microbial risk assessment within the standard description provided by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) paradigm. Each of the sequential steps in QRA are discussed in detail, providing information on current applications, tools for conducting the analyses, and methodological and/or data

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2015-01-01

Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

School Suicide Risk Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brock, Stephen E.; Louvar Reeves, Melissa A.

2018-01-01

Suicide is a leading cause of death among youth ages 10 years and older. Further, recent federal surveillance data suggest the rates of suicidal ideation and behaviors to be increasing. With these facts in mind, in this paper, we examine the school psychologist's role in suicide risk assessment; which assesses the degree to which students, who…

Is health risk assessment unethical

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, B.L.

For persons who have followed the environmental movement in the US and in other countries, it comes as no revelation that the general public has been, and remains, quite concerned about environmental hazards. This concern has in turn led to national and local legislation that is intended to protect the environment and public health. In a parallel way, transnational public concerns have fostered international agreements on controlling such environmental hazards as shipments of hazardous wastes and ocean pollution. Over time, as governments have attempted to come to grips with controlling various environmental hazards, the development and use of health riskmore » assessment has become a well-favored practice by government and some private sector agencies. Because health risk assessment is used to ultimately manage environmental hazards that impact the well-being of people, it seems timely to raise the questions of to what extent are ethical considerations incorporated into health risk assessments and risk management actions.« less

Can we (actually) assess global risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2013-04-01

The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

2015-07-01

Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Peplinski, William John

Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for threemore » water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.« less

OVERVIEW OF RISK ASSESSMENT FOR TOXIC AND PATHOGENIC AGENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment is a process that defines the adverse health consequences of exposure to toxic or pathogenic agents. hen used in regulatory decision making, risk assessment is an important component of risk management, which "combines the risk assessment with the directives of re...

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study-Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions.

PubMed

Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E; Ankley, Gerald T; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y; Burgoon, Lyle D; Chiu, Weihsueh A; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B; Edwards, Stephen W; Guyton, Kathryn Z; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T; Thayer, Kristina A; Thomas, Russell S; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R; Vandenberg, John J; Villeneuve, Daniel L; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S

2016-11-01

The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure-response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I, Andersen ME, Ankley GT, Barone S, Birnbaum LS, Boekelheide K

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

2016-01-01

Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

Human health risk assessment case study: an abandoned metal smelter site in Poland.

PubMed

Wcisło, Eleonora; Ioven, Dawn; Kucharski, Rafal; Szdzuj, Jerzy

2002-05-01

United States Environmental Protection Agency methodologies for human health risk assessment (HRA) were applied in a Brownfields Demonstration Project on the Warynski smelter site (WSS), an abandoned industrial site at Piekary Slaskie town, Upper Silesia, Poland. The HRA included the baseline risk assessment (BRA) and the development of risk-based preliminary remedial goals (RBPRGs). The HRA focused on surface area covered with waste materials, which were evaluated with regard to the potential risks they may pose to humans. Cadmium, copper, iron, manganese, lead, and zinc were proposed as the contaminants of potential concern (COPCs) at WSS based on archive data on chemical composition of waste located on WSS. For the defined future land use patterns, the industrial (I) and recreational (II) exposure scenarios were assumed and evaluated. The combined hazard index for all COPCs was 3.1E+00 for Scenario I and 3.2E+00 for Scenario II. Regarding potential carcinogenic risks associated with the inhalation route, only cadmium was a contributor, with risks of 1.6E-06 and 2.6E-07 for Scenario I and Scenario II, respectively. The results of the BRA indicated that the potential health risks at WSS were mainly associated with waste material exposure to cadmium (industrial and recreational scenarios) and lead (industrial scenario). RBPRGs calculated under the industrial scenario were 1.17E+03 and 1.62E+03 mg/kg for cadmium and lead, respectively. The RBPRG for cadmium was 1.18E+03 mg/kg under the recreational scenario. The BRA results, as well as RBCs, are comparable for both scenarios, so it is impossible to prioritize land use patterns for WSS based on these results. For choosing a future land use pattern or an appropriate redevelopment option, different factors would be decisive in the decision-making process, e.g., social, market needs, technical feasibility and costs of redevelopment actions or acceptance of local community.

OPPT workplan risk assessment for antimony trioxide (CASRN ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This assessment will focus on the ecological hazards that may be associated with ATO use in flame retardants. Because ATO’s use in PET plastics was previously evaluated and determined to present minimal concerns for human health and the environment (EU, 2008), this use scenario will not be evaluated here. Human health risks have been evaluated previously and will be summarized in this assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

PubMed

Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-13

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

PubMed Central

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-01-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

Assessment of health risks of policies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk; Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen; Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidancemore » and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.« less

Preliminary environmental assessment for the satellite power system (SPS). Revision 1. Volume 1. Executive summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1980-01-01

A preliminary assessment of the environmental impacts of the proposed satellite power system (SPS) is summarized here. In this system, satellites would collect solar energy in space, convert it to microwaves, and transmit the microwaves to receiving antennas (rectennas) on earth. At the rectennas, the microwaves would be converted to electricity. The assessment considers microwave and nonmicrowave effects on the terrestrial environment and human health, atmospheric effects, and disruption of communications and other electromagnetic systems.

Application of geostatistics to risk assessment.

PubMed

Thayer, William C; Griffith, Daniel A; Goodrum, Philip E; Diamond, Gary L; Hassett, James M

2003-10-01

Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.

A preliminary risk assessment of organochlorines accumulated in fish to the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) in the Northwestern waters of Hong Kong.

PubMed

Hung, C L H; Xu, Y; Lam, J C W; Connell, D W; Lam, M H W; Nicholson, S; Richardson, B J; Lam, P K S

2006-11-01

The Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin is considered threatened due to several factors including pollution in Hong Kong and the risks due to consumption of fish tainted with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides were assessed. Six species of fish Collichthys lucida, Pseudosciaena crocea, Johnius sp., Thryssa sp., Mugil sp. and Trichiurus sp., which comprise the main prey species of humpback dolphins were collected for analyses. Risks due to total PCBs, total TEQs, PCB 118 and the pesticides were assessed with the use of toxicity reference values as the threshold reference benchmarks. The calculated risk quotients (RQs) showed that the risks associated with organochlorines were generally low. The highest RQ was associated with total TEQs suggesting that dioxin-like PCBs may pose the highest risk to the dolphins. The HCHs, total PCBs and heptachlor had comparatively high RQs and thus they should also be the priority organochlorines that would require further investigation.

South San Francisco Bay 2004 topographic lidar survey: Data overview and preliminary quality assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foxgrover, Amy C.; Jaffe, Bruce E.

2005-01-01

This report details the collection of lidar in South Bay, the ground-truthing efforts, preliminary accuracy assessments, and known limitations of the data set. We describe the data generated from the survey and how to obtain it. In addition, we present maps and sample imagery that provides a revealing look into the intricate topographic features of South Bay.

New method for assessing risks of email

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

2013-03-01

E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

PubMed Central

Wolt, Jeffrey D

2009-01-01

Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization. PMID:19883509

Ecological risk assessment conceptual model formulation for nonindigenous species.

PubMed

Landis, Wayne G

2004-08-01

This article addresses the application of ecological risk assessment at the regional scale to the prediction of impacts due to invasive or nonindigenous species (NIS). The first section describes risk assessment, the decision-making process, and introduces regional risk assessment. A general conceptual model for the risk assessment of NIS is then presented based upon the regional risk assessment approach. Two diverse examples of the application of this approach are presented. The first example is based upon the dynamics of introduced plasmids into bacteria populations. The second example is the application risk assessment approach to the invasion of a coastal marine site of Cherry Point, Washington, USA by the European green crab. The lessons learned from the two examples demonstrate that assessment of the risks of invasion of NIS will have to incorporate not only the characteristics of the invasive species, but also the other stresses and impacts affecting the region of interest.

Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

Risk assessment in the North Caucasus ski resorts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komarov, Anton Y.; Seliverstov, Yury G.; Glazovskaya, Tatyana G.; Turchaninova, Alla S.

2016-10-01

Avalanches pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of Russia. The constant growth of economic activity, and therefore the increased avalanche hazard, in the North Caucasus region lead to demand for the development of large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments.The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation (Federal Law 21.12.1994 N 68-FZ, 2016). However, Russian guidelines (SNIP 11-02-96, 2013; SNIP 22-02-2003, 2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting a new avalanche risk assessment approach, with the example of developing but poorly researched ski resort areas. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (appropriate, acceptable and inappropriate) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to an acceptable level or better. The analysis makes it possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different regions, analyze them and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures.

Preliminary remediation goals for use at the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-06-01

This report presents Preliminary Remediation Goals (PRGs) for use in human health risk assessment efforts under the United States Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office Environmental Restoration (ER) Division. Chemical-specific PRGs are concentration goals for individual chemicals for specific medium and land use combinations. The PRGs are referred to as risk-based because they have been calculated using risk assessment procedures. Risk-based calculations set concentration limits using both carcinogenic or noncarcinogenic toxicity values under specific exposure pathways. The PRG is a concentration that is derived from a specified excess cancer risk level or hazard quotient. This report provides the ERmore » Division with standardized PRGs which are integral to the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study process. By managing the assumptions and systems used in PRG derivation, the Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program will be able to control the level of quality assurance associated with these risk-based guideline values.« less

Preliminary remediation goals for use at the US Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office. Revision 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1996-05-01

This technical memorandum presents Preliminary Remediation Goals (PRGs) for use in human health risk assessment efforts under the United States Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office Environmental Restoration (ER) Division. This document provides the ER Division with standardized PRGs which are integral to the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study process. They are used during project scooping (Data Quality Objectives development), in screening level risk assessments to support early action or No Further Investigation decisions, and in the baselines risk assessment where they are employed in the selection of chemicals of potential concern. The primary objective of this document is to standardizemore » these values and eliminate any duplication of effort by providing PRGs to all contractors involved in risk activities. In addition, by managing the assumptions and systems used in PRG derivation, the ER Risk Assessment Program will be able to control the level of quality assurance associated with these risk-based guideline values.« less

GENOTOXICITY RISK ASSESSMENT: A PROPOSED CLASSIFICATION STRATEGY

EPA Science Inventory

Recent advances in genetic toxicity (mutagenicity) testing methods and in approaches to performing risk assessment are prompting a renewed effort to harmonize genotoxicity risk assessment across the world. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first published Guidelines fo...

Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

Risk assessment as standard work in design.

PubMed

Morrill, Patricia W

2013-01-01

This case study article examines a formal risk assessment as part of the decision making process for design solutions in high risk areas. The overview of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) tool with examples of its application in hospital building projects will demonstrate the benefit of those structured conversations. This article illustrates how two hospitals used FMEA when integrating operational processes with building projects: (1) adjacency decision for Intensive Care Unit (ICU); and (2) distance concern for handling of specimens from Surgery to Lab. Both case studies involved interviews that exposed facility solution concerns. Just-in-time studies using the FMEA followed the same risk assessment process with the same workshop facilitator involving structured conversations in analyzing risks. In both cases, participants uncovered key areas of risk enabling them to take the necessary next steps. While the focus of this article is not the actual design solution, it is apparent that the risk assessment brought clarity to the situations resulting in prompt decision making about facility solutions. Hospitals are inherently risky environments; therefore, use of the formal risk assessment process, FMEA, is an opportunity for design professionals to apply more rigor to design decision making when facility solutions impact operations in high risk areas. Case study, decision making, hospital, infection control, strategy, work environment.

Occurrence and preliminarily environmental risk assessment of selected pharmaceuticals in the urban rivers, China

PubMed Central

Zhou, Haidong; Ying, Tianqi; Wang, Xuelian; Liu, Jianbo

2016-01-01

Twelve selected pharmaceuticals including antibiotics, analgesics, antiepileptics and lipid regulators were analysed and detected in water samples collected from 18 sampling sections along the three main urban rivers in Yangpu District of Shanghai, China during four sampling campaigns. Besides, algal growth inhibition test was conducted to preliminarily assess the eco-toxicology induced by the target pharmaceuticals in the rivers. Mean levels for most of target compounds were generally below 100 ng/L at sampling sections, with the exception of caffeine and paracetamol presenting considerably high concentration. The detected pharmaceuticals in the urban rivers ranged from Preliminary eco-toxicological risk assessment showed that the presence of azithromycin, clarithromycin and caffeine may present an ecotoxicological risk in the urban rivers. For other tested pharmaceuticals the inhibition effects of single substances in the urban aquatic environment, based on the algae inhibition tests, were very imperceptible. PMID:27713558

Occurrence and preliminarily environmental risk assessment of selected pharmaceuticals in the urban rivers, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Haidong; Ying, Tianqi; Wang, Xuelian; Liu, Jianbo

2016-10-01

Twelve selected pharmaceuticals including antibiotics, analgesics, antiepileptics and lipid regulators were analysed and detected in water samples collected from 18 sampling sections along the three main urban rivers in Yangpu District of Shanghai, China during four sampling campaigns. Besides, algal growth inhibition test was conducted to preliminarily assess the eco-toxicology induced by the target pharmaceuticals in the rivers. Mean levels for most of target compounds were generally below 100 ng/L at sampling sections, with the exception of caffeine and paracetamol presenting considerably high concentration. The detected pharmaceuticals in the urban rivers ranged from Preliminary eco-toxicological risk assessment showed that the presence of azithromycin, clarithromycin and caffeine may present an ecotoxicological risk in the urban rivers. For other tested pharmaceuticals the inhibition effects of single substances in the urban aquatic environment, based on the algae inhibition tests, were very imperceptible.

A preliminary assessment of small steam Rankine and Brayton point-focusing solar modules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roschke, E. J.; Wen, L.; Steele, H.; Elgabalawi, N.; Wang, J.

1979-01-01

A preliminary assessment of three conceptual point-focusing distributed solar modules is presented. The basic power conversion units consist of small Brayton or Rankine engines individually coupled to two-axis, tracking, point-focusing solar collectors. An array of such modules can be linked together, via electric transport, to form a small power station. Each module also can be utilized on a stand-alone basis, as an individual power source.

Twenty Years of Progress in Violence Risk Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanson, R. Karl

2005-01-01

Violence risk assessment has advanced considerably in the last 20 years. In the 1980s, leading professionals questioned the very possibility of valid violence risk assessments; now, many of the major risk factors have been identified, and professional debate focuses on how best to combine these risk factors into meaningful evaluations. An…

Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

2010-01-01

An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

EPA Science Inventory

Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remington, Benjamin C.

2017-09-01

Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

Caseworker assessments of risk for recurrent maltreatment: association with case-specific risk factors and re-reports.

PubMed

Dorsey, Shannon; Mustillo, Sarah A; Farmer, Elizabeth M Z; Elbogen, Eric

2008-03-01

This article focuses on caseworkers' assessments of risk of maltreatment recurrence among families in contact with social services. Specifically, the article has two primary goals: (1) to examine the association between caseworkers' risk assessments and demographic, child, parent and family-level risk factors; and (2) to examine agreement between caseworkers' risk assessments and any subsequent report, or reports, of maltreatment. Data are from the baseline, 12-month, and 18-month assessments of the National Survey for Child and Adolescent Well-Being (NSCAW), a nationally representative sample of youth and families who were the subjects of allegations of maltreatment investigated by child welfare agencies. The sample consisted of a subset of NSCAW participants: cases with a report of child physical abuse or neglect who were not placed in out-of-home care (N=2,139). Analyses indicated that parent-level risk factors and a prior report of maltreatment were most strongly associated with caseworkers' assessments of risk for both physical abuse and neglect cases. A smaller set of factors, which varied by the type of maltreatment, were associated with a subsequent report of maltreatment. Despite some overlap in correlates of risk assessment and subsequent reports, analyses indicated that agreement between caseworkers' assessments of risk and re-reports was low. Findings suggest that although caseworkers' assessments were associated with a limited set of risk factors from the literature, few of these factors also were associated with a recurrent report of maltreatment. Correspondence between caseworkers' assessments of risk and a subsequent report of maltreatment was low, suggesting that considerable work may be needed to improve accuracy and identification of cases most at risk. This study provides information to assist caseworkers, administrators, and policymakers in thinking critically about risk assessment policies and procedures. Although caseworkers' assessments of

La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

2009-12-01

Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree

There is more to risk and safety planning than dramatic risks: Mental health nurses' risk assessment and safety-management practice.

PubMed

Higgins, Agnes; Doyle, Louise; Downes, Carmel; Morrissey, Jean; Costello, Paul; Brennan, Michael; Nash, Michael

2016-04-01

Risk assessment and safety planning are considered a cornerstone of mental health practice, yet limited research exists into how mental health nurses conceptualize 'risk' and how they engage with risk assessment and safety planning. The aim of the present study was to explore mental health nurses' practices and confidence in risk assessment and safety planning. A self-completed survey was administered to 381 mental health nurses in Ireland. The findings indicate that nurses focus on risk to self and risk to others, with the risk of suicide, self-harm, substance abuse, and violence being most frequently assessed. Risk from others and 'iatrogenic' risk were less frequently considered. Overall, there was limited evidence of recovery-oriented practice in relation to risk. The results demonstrate a lack of meaningful engagement with respect to collaborative safety planning, the identification and inclusion of protective factors, and the inclusion of positive risk-taking opportunities. In addition, respondents report a lack of confidence working with positive risk taking and involving family/carers in the risk-assessment and safety-planning process. Gaps in knowledge about risk-assessment and safety-planning practice, which could be addressed through education, are identified, as are the implications of the findings for practice and research. © 2015 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

A combined QSAR and partial order ranking approach to risk assessment.

PubMed

Carlsen, L

2006-04-01

QSAR generated data appear as an attractive alternative to experimental data as foreseen in the proposed new chemicals legislation REACH. A preliminary risk assessment for the aquatic environment can be based on few factors, i.e. the octanol-water partition coefficient (Kow), the vapour pressure (VP) and the potential biodegradability of the compound in combination with the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) and the actual tonnage in which the substance is produced. Application of partial order ranking, allowing simultaneous inclusion of several parameters leads to a mutual prioritisation of the investigated substances, the prioritisation possibly being further analysed through the concept of linear extensions and average ranks. The ranking uses endpoint values (log Kow and log VP) derived from strictly linear 'noise-deficient' QSAR models as input parameters. Biodegradation estimates were adopted from the BioWin module of the EPI Suite. The population growth impairment of Tetrahymena pyriformis was used as a surrogate for fish lethality.

Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

2015-11-01

Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

Ecological risk assessment of boreal sediments affected by metal mining: Metal geochemistry, seasonality, and comparison of several risk assessment methods.

PubMed

Väänänen, Kristiina; Kauppila, Tommi; Mäkinen, Jari; Leppänen, Matti T; Lyytikäinen, Merja; Akkanen, Jarkko

2016-10-01

The mining industry is a common source of environmental metal emissions, which cause long-lasting effects in aquatic ecosystems. Metal risk assessment is challenging due to variations in metal distribution, speciation, and bioavailability. Therefore, seasonal effects must be better understood, especially in boreal regions in which seasonal changes are large. We sampled 4 Finnish lakes and sediments affected by mining for metals and geochemical characteristics in autumn and late winter, to evaluate seasonal changes in metal behavior, the importance of seasonality in risk assessment, and the sensitivity and suitability of different risk assessment methods. We compared metal concentrations in sediment, overlying water, and porewater against environmental quality guidelines (EQGs). We also evaluated the toxicity of metal mixtures using simultaneously extracted metals and an acid volatile sulfides (SEM-AVS) approach together with water quality criteria (US Environmental Protection Agency equilibrium partitioning benchmarks). Finally, site-specific risks for 3 metals (Cu, Ni, Zn) were assessed using 2 biotic ligand models (BLMs). The metal concentrations in the impacted lakes were elevated. During winter stratification, the hypolimnetic O2 saturation levels were low (<6%) and the pH was acidic (3.5-6.5); however, abundant O2 (>89%) and neutral pH (6.1-7.5) were found after the autumnal water overturn. Guidelines were the most conservative benchmark for showing an increased risk of toxicity in the all of the lakes. The situation remained stable between seasons. On the other hand, SEM-AVS, equilibrium partition sediment benchmarks (ESBs), and BLMs provided a clearer distinction between lakes and revealed a seasonal variation in risk among some of the lakes, which evidenced a higher risk during late winter. If a sediment risk assessment is based on the situation in the autumn, the overall risk may be underestimated. It is advisable to carry out sampling and risk assessment

An Etiological Approach to Sexual Offender Assessment: CAse Formulation Incorporating Risk Assessment (CAFIRA).

PubMed

Craig, Leam A; Rettenberger, Martin

2018-05-19

Case formulations (CF) have been the cornerstone of effective practice in clinical psychology since the 1950s and now form one of the core competencies in clinical and forensic assessment. The use of CFs within forensic settings is becoming more relevant when working with offenders who have experienced significant trauma, suffered from personality disorder, and have displayed sexually abusive behavior. Furthermore, most North American and European jurisdictions insist that expert witnesses adopt an idiosyncratic approach to risk assessment and consider the characteristics of the individual as part of a wider formulation of the problem behavior. This article focuses specifically on CF incorporating risk assessment procedures of sexual offenders. While empirical support for the use of risk analysis and formulation in managing offending behavior generally, and sexual offending behavior in particular, is limited, there is mounting evidence to suggest that CF can improve understanding of an individual's problem sexual behaviors. We argue that by integrating risk formulations into the CF provides a conceptually robust link between the etiologically development of the problem sexual behavior and effective assessment and risk management of sexual offenders. As forensic treatment programs increasingly moved toward strength-based approaches, in keeping with the Risk-Need-Responsivity principles Andrews and Bonta (2004), and the Good Lives Model Ward and Stewart (Prof Psychol Res Pract 34:353-60, 2003) of offender rehabilitation, the use of CFs in the assessment, treatment, and management of sexual offenders is indispensable. We present an etiological framework for understanding risk in an individual sexual offender by integrating a case formulation model to include the use of (static, stable, and acute) actuarial and clinical risk assessment measures as well as protective risk factors, referred to as the CAse Formulation Incorporating Risk Assessment (CAFIRA) model.

Reliability and risk assessment of structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.

1991-01-01

Development of reliability and risk assessment of structural components and structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) the evaluation of the various uncertainties in terms of cumulative distribution functions for various structural response variables based on known or assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (2) evaluation of the failure probability; (3) reliability and risk-cost assessment; and (4) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual certification of man-rated structures by computational methods. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of man-rated structural components and structures can be effectively evaluated by using formal probabilistic methods.

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

Carbon/graphite fiber risk analysis and assessment study: Assessment of risk to the Lockheed Model L-1011 commercial transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniledes, J.; Koch, J. R.

1980-01-01

The risk associated with the accidental release of carbon/graphite fibers (CF) from fires on commercial transport aircraft incorporating composite materials was assessed. Data are developed to evaluate the potential for CF damage to electrical and electronic equipment, assess the cost risk, and evaluate the hazard to continued operation. The subjects covered include identification of susceptible equipments, determination of infiltration transfer functions, analysis of airport operations, calculation of probabilities of equipment failures, assessment of the cost risk, and evaluation of the hazard to continued operation. The results show the risks associated with CF contamination are negligible through 1993.

Historical perspective on risk assessment in the federal government.

PubMed

Graham, J D

1995-09-01

This article traces the evolution of risk assessment as an essential analytical tool in the federal government. In many programs and agencies, decisions cannot be made without the benefit of information from risk assessment. Although this analytical tool influences important public health and economic decisions, there is widespread dissatisfaction with the day-to-day practice of risk assessment. The article describes the sources of dissatisfaction that have been voiced by scientists, regulators, interest groups and ordinary citizens. Problems include the use of arbitrary exposure scenarios, the misuse of the 'carcinogen' label, the excessive reliance on animal cancer tests, the lack of formal uncertainty analysis the low priority assigned to noncancer endpoints, the poor communication of risk estimates and the neglect of inequities in the distribution of risk. Despite these limitations, the article argues that more danger rests in efforts to make decisions without any risk assessment. Recent Congressional and Administration interest in risk assessment is encouraging because it offers promise to learn from past mistakes and set in motion steps to enhance the risk assessment process.

Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suter II, G.W.

2003-06-18

The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management.more » It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.« less

Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health Perspectives

PubMed Central

Axelrad, Daniel A.; Bahadori, Tina; Bussard, David; Cascio, Wayne E.; Deener, Kacee; Dix, David; Thomas, Russell S.; Kavlock, Robert J.; Burke, Thomas A.

2017-01-01

Preventing adverse health effects of environmental chemical exposure is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and effects of environmentally induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Considering these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. PMID:28520487

Occupational health policies on risk assessment in Japan.