Science.gov

Sample records for preliminary risk assessment

  1. 76 FR 52945 - Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Human Health Risk Assessment; Extension of Comment...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-08-24

    ... AGENCY Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Human Health Risk Assessment; Extension of Comment... availability of the chlorpyrifos registration review; preliminary human health risk assessment. This document... for the chlorpyrifos reregistration review, preliminary human health risk assessment, established...

  2. Preliminary Risk Assessment Associated with IGSCC of BWR Vessel Internals

    SciTech Connect

    A. Ware; K. Morton; M. Nitzel; N. Chokshi; T-Y. Chang

    1999-08-01

    BWR core shrouds and other reactor internals important to safety are experiencing intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC). The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has followed the problem, and as part of its investigations, contracted with the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) to conduct a risk assessment. The overall project objective is to assess the potential consequences and risks associated with the failure of IGSCC-susceptible BWR vessel internals, with specific consideration given to potential cascading and common mode effects. The paper presents an overview of the program, discusses the results of a preliminary qualitative assessment, and summarizes a simplified risk assessment that was conducted on sequences resulting from failures of jet pump components of a BWR/4 plant.

  3. Prenatal Child Abuse Risk Assessment: A Preliminary Validation Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weberling, Lara Cady; Forgays, Deborah Kirby; Crain-Thoreson, Catherine; Hyman, Ira

    2003-01-01

    Tested the validity of the Brigid Collins Risk Screener (BCRS) to assess child abuse risk in a sample of 49 expectant mothers. Found that at 3 months postpartum, high-risk mothers scored significantly lower on the quality of infants' physical, social, and emotional environments than moderate or low-risk mothers. Concluded that the BCRS appears to…

  4. EPA Releases the First of Four Preliminary Risk Assessments for Insecticides Potentially Harmful to Bees

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    WASHINGTON-- The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced a preliminary pollinator risk assessment for the neonicotinoid insecticide, imidacloprid, which shows a threat to some pollinators. EPA's assessment, prepared in collaboration wit

  5. Preliminary data on a new opioid risk assessment measure: the Brief Risk Interview.

    PubMed

    Jones, Ted; Moore, Todd

    2013-01-01

    Risk assessment and stratification have become a central issue in prescribing opioids to patients with chronic pain. Research to date on various risk screening measures has shown that a clinical interview by an experienced clinician offers superior predictive ability in identifying patients who are more likely to engage in future medication aberrant behavior. The current study represents a pilot study of an interview rating scale that is designed to replicate this clinical assessment. This study compares the predictions of medication aberrant behavior made by the Opioid Risk Tool, the Screener and Opioid Assessment for Patients with Pain-Revised, and the new interview rating scale, the Brief Risk Interview (BRI). A sample of 196 patients was assessed by each of the three risk measures and then follow-up data were gathered at 6 months post interview to determine which patients had engaged in medication aberrant behavior and had been discharged from the practice. The BRI shows superior predictive ability in identifying patients who later engage in medication aberrant behavior. Although more study in other settings is needed, these preliminary data suggest that the Brief Risk Interview could be a useful tool for any pain clinician in assessing risk through the use of information gathered in a brief interview.

  6. Preliminary risk benefit assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rice, E. E.; Denning, R. S.; Friedlander, A. L.; Priest, C. C.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes the recent work of the authors on the evaluation of health risk benefits of space disposal of nuclear waste. The paper describes a risk model approach that has been developed to estimate the non-recoverable, cumulative, expected radionuclide release to the earth's biosphere for different options of nuclear waste disposal in space. Risk estimates for the disposal of nuclear waste in a mined geologic repository and the short- and long-term risk estimates for space disposal were developed. The results showed that the preliminary estimates of space disposal risks are low, even with the estimated uncertainty bounds. If calculated release risks for mined geologic repositories remain as low as given by the U.S. DOE, and U.S. EPA requirements continue to be met, then no additional space disposal study effort in the U.S. is warranted at this time. If risks perceived by the public are significant in the acceptance of mined geologic repositories, then consideration of space disposal as a complement to the mined geologic repository is warranted.

  7. Preliminary risk assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space, volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rice, E. E.; Denning, R. S.; Friedlander, A. L.

    1982-01-01

    The feasibility, desirability and preferred approaches for disposal of selected high-level nuclear wastes in space were analyzed. Preliminary space disposal risk estimates and estimates of risk uncertainty are provided.

  8. A preliminary spatial assessment of risk: Marine birds and chronic oil pollution on Canada's Pacific coast.

    PubMed

    Fox, C H; O'Hara, P D; Bertazzon, S; Morgan, K; Underwood, F E; Paquet, P C

    2016-12-15

    Chronic oil pollution poses substantial risks to marine birds and other marine wildlife worldwide. On Canada's Pacific coast, the negative ecological consequences to marine birds and marine ecosystems in general remain poorly understood. Using information relating to oil spill probability of occurrence, areas of overall importance to marine birds, and the at-sea distribution and density of 12 marine bird species and seven bird groups, including multiple Species at Risk, we undertook a spatial assessment of risk. Our results identify two main areas important to marine birds potentially at higher risk of exposure to oil. For individual bird species or species groups, those predicted to have elevated bird densities near the mainland and the northeast coast of Vancouver Island were identified as being at higher potential risk of exposure. Our results, however, should be considered preliminary. As with other anthropogenic stressors, in order to better understand and subsequently mitigate the consequences of chronic oil pollution on marine birds, improved information relating to marine birds and the occurrence of oil spills on Canada's Pacific coast is needed.

  9. Assessment of Risk in Chronic Airways Disease Evaluation (ARCADE): Protocol and preliminary data.

    PubMed

    Gale, Nichola S; Albarrati, Ali M; Munnery, Margaret M; Munnery, Iain C; Irfan, Mujammil; Bolton, Charlotte E; Rambaran, Curtis N; Singer, Ruth M Tal; Cockcroft, John R; Shale, Dennis J

    2014-11-01

    Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a multisystem disease. Established comorbidities include cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, loss of muscle mass and function, depression, and impaired quality of life. The natural history is not well understood. The Assessment of Risk in Chronic Airways Disease Evaluation (ARCADE) is a longitudinal study of comorbidities in COPD. The primary aims are to delineate the progression and interrelationships of cardiovascular disease and associated comorbidities. Each year ARCADE aims to recruit 250 patients diagnosed with COPD and 50 comparators (free from respiratory disease). Assessments include spirometry, body composition, blood pressure, aortic stiffness (pulse wave velocity (PWV)), noninvasive measures of cardiac output, systemic inflammatory mediators, blood and urine biochemistry, and physical and health outcomes. These will be repeated at 2 and 5 years. In the first year of recruitment, 350 patients and 100 comparators were recruited. The reproducibility of aortic PWV, cardiac output, stroke volume, and cardiac index was evaluated and accepted in 30 patients free from overt cardiovascular disease. The preliminary data from ARCADE have demonstrated acceptable reproducibility of hemodynamic outcome measures. Further longitudinal data collection will increase knowledge of the progression and interactions between cardiovascular risk factors and other comorbidities in COPD.

  10. Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

    2011-05-01

    This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

  11. Notification: Preliminary Research to Evaluate EPA's Use of and Adherence to Quality Management Policies in Chemical Risk Assessments

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Project #OPE-FY14-0012, December 19, 2013. The Office of Inspector General (OIG) is starting preliminary research on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) use of and adherence to quality management policies in chemical risk assessments.

  12. Preliminary Risk Assessment of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Mullen, M.A.; Foxx, T.S.

    1998-10-01

    The southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) is the fourth threatened or endangered species to undergo a preliminary assessment for estimating potential risk from environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The assessments are being conducted as part of a three-year project to develop a habitat management plan for threatened and endangered species and species of concern at the Laboratory. For the preliminary assessment, estimated doses were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices (HIs). This assessment included a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants (radionuclides, metals, and organic chemicals) to 100 simulated nest sites located within flycatcher potential habitat. Sources of contaminant values were 10,000-ft{sup 2} grid cells within an Ecological Exposure Unit (EEU). This EEU was estimated around the potential habitat and was based on the maximum home range for the fly catcher identified in the scientific literature. The tools used included a custom FORTRAN program, ECORSK5, and a geographic information system. Food consumption and soil ingestion contaminant pathways were addressed in the assessment. Using a four-category risk evaluation, HI results indicate no appreciable impact is expected to the southwestern willow flycatcher. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, flycatcher habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain low levels of risk from contaminants.

  13. Preliminary Health Risk Assessment of Potentially Toxic Metals in Surface Water of the Himalayan Rivers, Nepal.

    PubMed

    Tripathee, Lekhendra; Kang, Shichang; Sharma, Chhatra Mani; Rupakheti, Dipesh; Paudyal, Rukumesh; Huang, Jie; Sillanpää, Mika

    2016-12-01

    This study investigates the contamination levels and risk assessments of 14 elements (Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Pb, Li, Mn, Mo, Ni, Sb, Sr, V and Zn) in three sub-basins of Himalayan rivers. Water samples were collected and the hazard quotient (HQ), hazard index (HI), and water quality index (WQI) were calculated. Total average concentrations of the metals were 135.03, 80.10 and 98.34 µg/L in Gandaki, Indrawati and Dudh Koshi rivers, respectively. The results of HQ and HI were less than unity, suggesting a low risk of metals in the region. However, HQ for antimony (Sb) was found to be 4.4 × 10(-1), 2.1 × 10(-1) and 5.4 × 10(-1) in three river basins and HI near unity, suggesting its potential risk. Additionally, HI for Cd in Indrawati was 5.4 × 10(-1) also close to unity, suggesting that Cd could have a potential risk to the local residents and aquatic ecosystems. Further, WQI suggested that the rivers Gandaki and Indrawati fell into the excellent water quality and river Dudh Koshi fell into good water quality.

  14. Arsenic concentration in rice, fish, meat and vegetables in Cambodia: a preliminary risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wang, Hong-Sheng; Sthiannopkao, Suthipong; Chen, Zhuo-Jia; Man, Yu-Bon; Du, Jun; Xing, Guang-Hua; Kim, Kyoung-Woong; Mohamed Yasin, Mohamed Salleh; Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Wong, Ming-Hung

    2013-12-01

    To assess arsenic contaminations and its possible adverse health effects, food samples were collected from Kandal, Kratie and Kampong Cham in Cambodia. The highest and the lowest concentrations were observed in fish (mean 2,832 ng g(-1), ww) collected from Kandal province and cattle stomach (1.86 ± 1.10 ng g(-1), ww) collected from Kratie, respectively. The daily intake of arsenic via food consumption was 604, 9.70 and 136 μg day(-1) in Kandal, Kratie and Kampong Cham, respectively. The arsenic dietary intake in Kandal ranked No. 1 among all the 17 compared countries or regions. Fish consumption contributed the greatest proportion of total arsenic daily intake in Kandal (about 63.0 %) and Kampong Cham (about 69.8 %). It is revealed to be a much more important exposure pathway than drinking water for residents in Kampong Cham. The results of risk assessment suggested that the residents in Cambodia, particularly for people in Kandal province, suffer high public health risks due to consuming arsenic-contaminated food.

  15. A spatially-dynamic preliminary risk assessment of the American peregrine falcon at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (version 1)

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.

    1997-06-01

    The Endangered Species Act and the Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory require protection of the American peregrine falcon. A preliminary risk assessment of the peregrine was performed using a custom FORTRAN model and a geographical information system. Estimated doses to the falcon were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices. Hazard index results indicated no unacceptable risk to the falcon from the soil ingestion pathway, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. Scaling home ranges on the basis of maximizing falcon height for viewing prey decreased estimated risk by 69% in a canyons-based home range and increased estimated risk by 40% in a river-based home range. Improving model realism by weighting simulated falcon foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased risk by 93% in one exposure unit and by 82% in a second exposure unit. It was demonstrated that choice of toxicity reference values can have a substantial impact on risk estimates. Adding bioaccumulation factors for several organics increased partial hazard quotients by a factor of 110, but increased the mean hazard index by only 0.02 units. Adding a food consumption exposure pathway in the form of biomagnification factors for 15 contaminants of potential ecological concern increased the mean hazard index to 1.16 ({+-} 1.0), which is above the level of acceptability (1.0). Aroclor-1254, dichlorodiphenyltrichlorethane (DDT) and dichlorodiphenylethelyne (DDE) accounted for 81% of the estimated risk that includes soil ingestion and food consumption Contaminant pathways and a biomagnification component. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, falcon habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations. 123 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs.

  16. Chemical stimulation in unconventional hydrocarbons extraction in the USA: a preliminary environmental risk assessment.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutra, Emilie; Spada, Matteo; Burgherr, Peter

    2016-04-01

    While the exploitation of unconventional resources recently shows an extensive development, the stimulation techniques in use in this domain arouse growing public concerns. Often in the shadow of the disputed hydraulic fracturing process, the matrix acidizing is however a complementary or alternative procedure to enhance the reservoir connectivity. Although acidizing processes are widespread within the traditional hydrocarbons sources exploration, the matrix acidizing does not appear to be commonly used in unconventional hydrocarbons formations due to their low permeability. Nonetheless, this process has been recently applied to the Monterey formation, a shale oil play in California. These stimulation fluids are composed by various chemicals, what represents a matter of concern for public as well as for authorities. As a consequence, a risk assessment implying an exposure and toxicity analysis is needed. Focusing on site surface accidents, e.g., leak of a chemical from a storage tank, we develop in this study concentration scenarios for different exposure pathways to estimate the potential environmental risk associated with the use of specific hazardous substances in the matrix acidizing process for unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs in the USA. Primary, information about the usage of different hazardous substances have been collected in order to extract the most frequently used chemicals. Afterwards, a probabilistic estimation of the environmental risk associated with the use of these chemicals is carried out by comparing the Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PEC) distribution with the Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNEC) value. The latter is collected from a literature review, whereas the PEC is estimated as probability distribution concentrations in different environmental compartments (e.g., soil) built upon various predefined accident scenarios. By applying a probabilistic methodology for the concentrations, the level at which the used chemicals

  17. Second annual review update preliminary risk assessment of federally protected species at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Gonzales, G.J.; Gallegos, A.F.; Foxx, T.S.

    1998-02-01

    In FY96 and FY97, preliminary assessments were conducted of the potential risk from legacy waste to the American peregrine falcon (Falco peregrimus), the bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), and the Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida). Estimated doses were compared against toxicity reference values (TRVs) to generate hazard indices that included a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants (radionuclides, metals, and organic chemicals). The tools used included a custom FORTRAN code ECORSK, and a geographic information system. The assessments originally included only the soil ingestion contaminant pathway. Since the initial assessments, a food consumption contaminant pathway has been added, bioaccumulation and biomagnification of some contaminants have been factored into the food consumption pathway, and some of the TRVs against which estimated doses are compared have been changed to values which relate more closely to the Aves taxonomical class. With these and other more subtle improvements in model input parameters, ECORSK has been revised and the model has been re-executed for the owl and peregrine exposure units that originally generated the highest risk indices. This report contains the updated results. On average, results indicate a small potential for impact to the peregrine falcon, but no appreciable impact to the spotted owl nor the bald eagle. The original reports cited in this document should be consulted for details on methods.

  18. A Preliminary Examination of Specific Risk Assessment for Sexual Offenders against Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Proeve, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Specific risk questions concerning sexual offending, such as risk of offending against male victims given identified female victims, have seldom been discussed in the child sexual abuse literature. Two approaches to specific risk questions are described: (a) conditional probability calculations, and (b) the development of risk assessment…

  19. Preliminary aquatic risk assessment of imidacloprid after application in an experimental rice plot.

    PubMed

    Daam, Michiel A; Santos Pereira, Ana C; Silva, Emília; Caetano, Lia; Cerejeira, Maria José

    2013-11-01

    The potential aquatic risk of application of the neonicotinoid insecticide imidacloprid for aphid control in rice was assessed. To this end, imidacloprid was applied as Confidor(®) 200 SC at the recommended field dose of 100g a.i./ha to a Portuguese rice plot. Subsequently, fate of the test compound in water and potential effects of water samples on a battery of test species were determined. As compared to the first-tier predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) calculated using MED-Rice (around 30µg/L depending on the scenario used) and US-EPA (78µg/L) simulations, the actual peak concentration measured in the paddy water (52µg/L) was higher and lower, respectively. As was anticipated based on 50% effect concentrations (EC50 values) for Daphnia magna published in the open literature and that calculated in the present study (48h-EC50 immobility=84mg/L), no effects were observed of field water samples on daphnids. The sediment-dwelling ostracod Heterocypris incongruens, however, appeared relatively sensitive towards imidacloprid (6d-EC50 growth inhibition=0.01-0.015mg/L) and a slight effect was indeed noted in field samples taken the first week after application. Species sensitivity distributions based on published EC50 and NOEC values also revealed that other species are likely to be affected at the peak and time-weighted average imidacloprid concentrations, respectively. By applying the relative tolerance approach (i.e. by dividing the EC50 value of a certain species with that of Daphnia magna), ostracods appear to contain the most sensitive taxa to imidacloprid, followed by EPT (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera) taxa. Future field studies into (higher-tier) fate modelling of pesticides in rice paddies and effect assessment on field communities are required to ensure protection of aquatic life and wildlife (e.g. birds) from pesticide stress.

  20. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation. 1996 update

    SciTech Connect

    Sample, B.E.; Hinzman, R.L.; Jackson, B.L.; Baron, L.

    1996-09-01

    More than approximately 50 years of operations, storage, and disposal of wastes generated by the three facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant) has resulted in a mosaic of uncontaminated property and lands that are contaminated to varying degrees. This contaminated property includes source areas and the terrestrial and aquatic habitats down gradient from these source areas. Although the integrator OUs generally contain considerable habitat for biota, the source OUs provide little or no suitable habitat. Historically, ecological risk assessment at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source OU. Endpoints considered in source OUs include plants, soil/litter invertebrates and processes, aquatic biota found in on-OU sediments and surface waters, and small herbivorous, omnivorous, and vermivorous (i.e., feeding on ground, litter, or soil invertebrates) wildlife. All of these endpoints have limited spatial distributions or home ranges such that numerous individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the source OU. Most analyses are not adequate for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the ORR that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. This report is a preliminary response to a plan for assessing risks to wide-ranging species.

  1. A spatially-dynamic preliminary risk assessment of the bald eagle at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Gonzales, G.J.; Gallegos, A.F.; Foxx, T.S.; Fresquez, P.R.; Mullen, M.A.; Pratt, L.E.; Gomez, P.E.

    1998-04-01

    The Endangered Species Act of 1973 and the Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) require that the Department of Energy protect the bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), a state and federally listed species, from stressors such as contaminants. A preliminary risk assessment of the bald eagle was performed using a custom FORTRAN code, ECORSK5, and the geographical information system. Estimated exposure doses to the eagle for radionuclide, inorganic metal, and organic contaminants were derived for varying ratios of aquatic vs. terrestrial simulated diet and compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices (His). HI results indicate that no appreciable impact to the bald eagle is expected from contaminants at LANL from soil ingestion and food consumption pathways. This includes a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes linear additive toxicity. Improving model realism by weighting simulated eagle foraging based on distance from potential roost sites increased the HI by 76%, but still to inconsequential levels. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, eagle habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain risk from contaminants at low levels.

  2. Preliminary zoning for risk assessment and remediation purposes in Portman Bay.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pérez-Sirvent, Carmen; Martínez-Sanchez, MJose; Garcia-Lorenzo, MariLuz; Hernandez-Cordoba, Manuel; Molina, Jose; Gonzalez, Eva; Perez-Espinosa, Victor

    2014-05-01

    determined using Cu-Kα radiation with an X-ray Diffractometer and appropriate software. Data for metal leached, Acid-volatile sulphide (AVS) and simultaneously extracted metals (SEM) were also obtained. The results allowed two types of materials to be differentiated. The first one with a fine particle size, is related with the direct discharge of wastes and contains jarosite and other minerals resulting of supergenic alteration. The pH is low and both the level of heavy metals and chemical reactivity are high. The second, different material is black sand, a sediment of coarse texture in which stable minerals, phylosilicates, iron oxides and hydroxides, siderite, pyrite and quartz predominate. The pH is close to neutrality and despite a high heavy metals level, the chemical reactivity is low. The data allowed a preliminary zoning of the risk in the area to be established, and this was the starting point to outline the remediation project.

  3. Health Risk Assessment using in vitro digestion model in assessing bioavailability of heavy metal in rice: A preliminary study.

    PubMed

    Omar, N A; Praveena, S M; Aris, A Z; Hashim, Z

    2015-12-01

    Little is known about the bioavailability of heavy metal contamination and its health risks after rice ingestion. This study aimed to determine bioavailability of heavy metal (As, Cd, Cu, Cr, Co, Al, Fe, Zn and Pb) concentrations in cooked rice and human Health Risk Assessment (HRA). The results found Zn was the highest (4.3±0.1 mg/kg), whereas As showed the lowest (0.015±0.001 mg/kg) bioavailability of heavy metal concentration in 22 varieties of cooked rice. For single heavy metal exposure, no potential of non carcinogenic health risks was found, while carcinogenic health risks were found only for As. Combined heavy metal exposures found that total Hazard Quotient (HQtotal) values for adult were higher than the acceptable range (HQTotal<1), whereas total Lifetime Cancer Risk (LCRTotal) values were higher than the acceptable range (LCRTotal values >1×10(-4)) for both adult and children. This study is done to understand that the inclusion of bioavailability heavy metal into HRA produces a more realistic estimation of human heavy metal exposure.

  4. Chronic toxicity of copper to five benthic invertebrates in laboratory-formulated sediment: sensitivity comparison and preliminary risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Roman, Yblin E; De Schamphelaere, Karel A C; Nguyen, Lien T H; Janssen, Colin R

    2007-11-15

    Five benthic organisms commonly used for sediment toxicity testing were chronically (28 to 35 days) exposed to copper in standard laboratory-formulated sediment (following Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development guidelines) and lethal and sub-lethal toxicities were evaluated. Sub-lethal endpoints considered were reproduction and biomass production for Lumbriculus variegatus, growth and reproduction for Tubifex tubifex, growth and emergence for Chironomus riparius, and growth for Gammarus pulex and Hyalella azteca. Expressed on whole-sediment basis the observed lethal sensitivity ranking (from most to least sensitive) was: G. pulex>L. variegatus>H. azteca=C. riparius=T. tubifex, with median chronic lethal concentrations (LC50) between 151 and 327 mg/kg dry wt. The sub-lethal sensitivity ranking (from most to least sensitive, with the most sensitive endpoint between parentheses): C. riparius (emergence)>T. tubifex (reproduction)=L. variegatus (reproduction)>G. pulex (growth)>H. azteca (growth), with median effective concentrations (EC50) between 59.2 and 194 mg/kg dry wt. No observed effect concentrations (NOEC) or 10% effective concentrations (EC10) for the five benthic invertebrates were used to perform a preliminary risk assessment for copper in freshwater sediment by means of (a) the "assessment factor approach" or (b) the statistical extrapolation approach (species sensitivity distribution). Depending on the data (NOEC or EC10) and the methodology used, we calculated a Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC) for sediment between 3.3 and 47.1 mg Cu/dry wt. This range is similar to the range of natural (geochemical) background concentrations of copper in sediments in Europe, i.e. 90% of sediments have a concentration between 5 and 49 mg Cu/kg dry wt. A detailed analysis of the outcome of this preliminary exercise highlighted that multiple issues need to be explored for achieving a scientifically more sound risk assessment and for the development of

  5. Preliminary Assessment of Health Risks of Potentially Toxic Elements in Settled Dust over Beijing Urban Area

    PubMed Central

    Wan, Dejun; Zhan, Changlin; Yang, Guanglin; Liu, Xingqi; Yang, Jinsong

    2016-01-01

    To examine levels, health risks, sources, and spatial distributions of potentially toxic elements in settled dust over Beijing urban area, 62 samples were collected mostly from residential building outdoor surfaces, and their <63 μm fractions were measured for 12 potentially toxic elements. The results show that V, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, and Ba in dust are from predominantly natural sources, whereas Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Sb, and Pb mostly originate from anthropogenic sources. Exposure to these elements in dust has significant non-cancer risks to children but insignificant to adults. Cancer risks of Cr, Co, Ni, As, and Cd via inhalation and dermal contact are below the threshold of 10−6–10−4 but As via dust ingestion shows a tolerable risk. The non-cancer risks to children are contributed mainly (75%) by As, Pb, and Sb, and dominantly (92%) via dust ingestion, with relatively higher risks mainly occurring in the eastern and northeastern Beijing urban areas. Although Cd, Zn, and Cu in dust are heavily affected by anthropogenic sources, their health risks are insignificant. Source appointments suggest that coal burning emissions, the dominant source of As, are likely the largest contributors to the health risk, and traffic-related and industrial emissions are also important because they contribute most of the Pb and Sb in dust. PMID:27187427

  6. Risk Assessment in the Recovery of Food for Social Solidarity Purposes: Preliminary Data.

    PubMed

    Milicevic, Vesna; Colavita, Giampaolo; Castrica, Marta; Ratti, Sabrina; Baldi, Antonella; Balzaretti, Claudia M

    2016-09-20

    of surplus from catering service and their reuse at COs should be planned with correct procedures, and the volunteer's knowledge on the hygienic aspects appears to be a critical point. The recovery and the charitable activities require an appropriate assessment and careful risk analysis, in order to manage the complexity of no profit organization.

  7. Risk Assessment in the Recovery of Food for Social Solidarity Purposes: Preliminary Data

    PubMed Central

    Milicevic, Vesna; Colavita, Giampaolo; Castrica, Marta; Ratti, Sabrina; Baldi, Antonella; Balzaretti, Claudia M.

    2016-01-01

    recovery of surplus from catering service and their reuse at COs should be planned with correct procedures, and the volunteer’s knowledge on the hygienic aspects appears to be a critical point. The recovery and the charitable activities require an appropriate assessment and careful risk analysis, in order to manage the complexity of no profit organization. PMID:28058252

  8. Technical Report on Preliminary Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Coles, Garill A.; Coble, Jamie B.; Hirt, Evelyn H.

    2013-09-17

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. AdvSMRs may provide a longer-term alternative to traditional light-water reactors (LWRs) and SMRs based on integral pressurized water reactor concepts currently being considered. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment. AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors. Some of this loss can be recovered through reduced capital costs through smaller size, fewer components, modular fabrication processes, and the opportunity for modular construction. However, the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments that are a step towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results from an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors by integrating real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors.

  9. Preliminary assessment of costs and risks of transporting spent fuel by barge

    SciTech Connect

    Tobin, R.L.; Meshkov, N.K.; Jones, R.H.

    1985-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the costs and risks associated with transporting spent fuel by barge. The barge movements would be made in combination with rail movements to transport spent fuel from plants to a repository. For the purpose of this analysis, three candidate repository sites are analyzed: Yucca Mountain, Nevada, Deaf Smith, Texas, and Hanford, Washington. This report complements a report prepared by Sandia National Laboratories in 1984 that analyzes the costs and risks of transporting spent fuel by rail and by truck to nine candidate repository sites.

  10. Preliminary risk assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space, volume 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rice, E. E.; Denning, R. S.; Friedlander, A. L.

    1982-01-01

    Safety guidelines are presented. Waste form, waste processing and payload fabrication facilities, shipping casks and ground transport vehicles, payload primary container/core, radiation shield, reentry systems, launch site facilities, uprooted space shuttle launch vehicle, Earth packing orbits, orbit transfer systems, and space destination are discussed. Disposed concepts and risks are then discussed.

  11. Fukushima nuclear accident: preliminary assessment of the risks to non-human biota.

    PubMed

    Aliyu, Abubakar Sadiq; Ramli, Ahmad Termizi; Garba, Nuraddeen Nasiru; Saleh, Muneer Aziz; Gabdo, Hamman Tukur; Liman, Muhammad Sanusi

    2015-02-01

    This study assesses the 'radio-ecological' impacts of Fukushima nuclear accident on non-human biota using the ERICA Tool, which adopts an internationally verified methodology. The paper estimates the impacts of the accident on terrestrial and marine biota based on the environmental data reported in literature for Japan, China, South Korea and the USA. Discernible impacts have been detected in the marine biota around Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. This study confirms that the Fukushima accident had caused heavier damage to marine bionts compared with terrestrial flora and fauna, in Japan.

  12. [Survey of arsenic concentrations in Chinese herbal medicines (CHMs) and preliminary risk assessment of As in CHMs on human health].

    PubMed

    Liu, Xiao-Juan; Liu, Wen-Ju; Lin, Ai-Jun; Liu, Yun-Xia

    2010-12-01

    Characteristics and concentrations of As in Chinese Herbal Medicines (CHMs) from Hebei province (including samples collected from fields and from medicine markets) were investigated, and the ADI (allowable daily intake) standard value from FAO/WHO was used for preliminary assessment of As risk on human health. The results showed that the average of As concentrations in different roots which were used as medicines, ranged from 0.14 mg/kg to 0.54 mg/kg,while for shoots which were used as medicines, average value of As concentrations in Dendranthema morifolium was 1.42 mg/kg, and the range in other species was from 0.09 mg/kg to 0.27 mg/kg. Based on Green Standards of Medicinal Plants and Preparations for Foreign Trade and Economy (2.0 mg/kg), the percentage of samples with As concentrations exceeding standard was 3.27% (n = 153) in roots and 9.09% (n = 44) in shoots,and 4.57% (n = 197) in total CHMs samples. As concentrations in CHMs from fields ranged from 0.03 mg/kg to 0.73 mg/kg,which were all lower than 2.0 mg/kg. However, As concentrations in CHMs from markets ranged from 0.05 mg/kg to 7.05 mg/kg, and the concentrations of As in 6.36% of samples exceeded the limited standard. Arsenic concentrations in samples from markets were significantly higher than those from fields (p < 0.05). As concentrations in Compositae were distributed widely from 0.08 mg/kg to 7.05 mg/kg,and the average at 0.87 mg/kg,while the average of As concentrations in other six families were between 0.21 mg/kg and 0.41 mg/kg, and As levels in 75% of samples for each family were below 0.5 mg/kg. Compared to Compositae samples, the CHMs from other families have higher security. ADI regulated by FAO/WHO was used to assess As risk in CHMs on human health in this study as well. As daily intake through CHMs from markets varied from 0.90 microg/d to 19.7 microg/d, and percentages of the daily intake of As in CHMs to ADI were in the range of 0.70% to 15.4%, which indicated that As in CHMs from markets

  13. Enhanced preliminary assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-02-01

    An Enhanced Preliminary Assessment was conducted at Fort Benjamin Harrison (FBH) Indiana, which is located approximately 12 miles from downtown Indianapolis in Lawrence Township, Marion County. FBH contains 2,501 acres, of which approximately 1,069 acres is covered by woodlands. Activities at FBH include administration, training, housing, and support. Sensitive environments at FBH include wetlands, habitat areas for the endangered Indiana bat, endangered plants, and historically and archeologically significant areas. FBH is a U.S. Army Soldier Support Center under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC). Based on information obtained during and subsequent to a site visit (15 through 18 October 1991), 36 types of Areas Requiring Environmental Evaluation (AREEs) were identified and grouped by the following categories: Facility Operations; Maintenance/Fueling Operations; Water Treatment Operations; Training Areas; Hazardous Materials Storage/Waste Handling Areas; Sanitary Wastewater Treatment Plants; Storage Tanks; Landfills/Incinerators; Medical Facilities; Burn Pit Areas; Spill Areas; Ammunition Storage; Coal Storage; and Facility-wide AREEs. This report presents a summary of findings for each AREE and recommendations for further action.

  14. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  15. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation

    SciTech Connect

    Sample, B.E.; Baron, L.A.; Jackson, B.L.

    1995-08-01

    Historically, ecological risk assessment at CERCLA sites [such as the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR)], has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source operable unit. Consequently the species that are generally considered are those with home ranges small enough such that multiple individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the contaminated site. This approach is adequate for sites with single, discrete areas of contamination that only provide habitat for species with limited requirements. This approach is not adequate however for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. Because wide-ranging wildlife species may travel between and use multiple contaminated sites they may be exposed to and be at risk from contaminants from multiple locations. Use of a particular contaminated site by wide-ranging species will be dependent upon the amount of suitable habitat available at that site. Therefore to adequately evaluate risks to wide-ranging species at the ORR-wide scale, the use of multiple contaminated sites must be weighted by the amount of suitable habitat on OUs. This reservation-wide ecological risk assessment is intended to identify which endpoints are significantly at risk; which contaminants are responsible for this risk; and which OUs significantly contribute to risk.

  16. A Preliminary Study of the Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Techniques to High-Energy Laser Safety

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2001-12-01

    that scintillation gain exceeds a given level (g) ............... 19 Figure 8. Typical dose - response curve for laser-induced ocular damage...23 Figure 9. Probit transformation of the dose - response curve for laser-induced ocular dam age...Protection Criteria An important element in the probabilistic risk assessment is the biological damage model (or dose response curve ). This describes

  17. Preliminary risk assessment of the Mexican Spotted Owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Pratt, L.E.

    1997-02-01

    The Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory requires that the Department of Energy takes special precautions to protect the Mexican Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis lucida). In order to do so, risk to the owl presented by radiological and nonradiological contaminants must be estimated. A preliminary risk assessment on the Mexican Spotted Owl in two Ecological Exposure Units (EEUs) was performed using a modified Environmental Protection Agency Quotient method, the FORTRAN model ECORSK4, and a geographic information system. Estimated doses to the owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime were compared against toxicological reference doses generating hazard indices (HIs) and hazard quotients (HQs) for three risk source types. The average HI was 0.20 for EEU-21 and 0.0015 for EEU-40. Under the risk parameter assumptions made, hazard quotient results indicated no unacceptable risk to the owl, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. An HI of 1.0 was used as the evaluative criteria for determining the acceptability of risk. This value was exceeded (1.06) in only one of 200 simulated potential nest sites. Cesium-137, Ni, {sup 239}Pu, Al and {sup 234}U we`re among the constituents with the highest partial HQs. Improving model realism by weighting simulated owl foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased the estimated risk by 72% (0.5 HI units) for EEU-21 and by 97.6% (6.3E-02 HI units) for EEU-40. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, owl habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain risk from contaminants at acceptably low levels.

  18. Preliminary human health risk assessment of arsenic and fluoride in tap water from Zacatecas, México.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Acuña, Mónica I; Mercado-Reyes, Marisa; Alegría-Torres, Jorge A; Mejía-Saavedra, José J

    2016-08-01

    Zacatecas state is located in the central area of Mexico, where the underground water contains elevated quantities of natural arsenic and fluoride. In order to estimate health risk associated with human exposure to these pollutants, tap water samples from the southern-central region of the state were analyzed. Ninety percent of the samples exceeded the levels of arsenic established by the World Health Organization (WHO) of 0.01 mg/L and 43 % exceeded the limit established by the NOM-127-SSA1(1) of 0.025 mg/L. Forty-three percent of the samples had fluoride levels above the Mexican regulation limit of 1.5 mg/L (NOM-127-SSA1). We used WHO and EPA's health risk assessment method, we estimated 80 % of the inhabitants of sites studied could be exposed to arsenic levels higher than those recommended by EPA and the WHO, 22 % could be exposed to fluoride levels higher than those recommended by EPA, and 16 % of the local population may be in risk of suffering dental fluorosis.

  19. Topaz II preliminary safety assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marshall, Albert C.; Standley, Vaughn; Voss, Susan S.; Haskin, Eric

    1993-01-01

    The Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) decided to investigate the possibility of launching a Russian Topaz II space nuclear power system. A preliminary safety assessment was conducted to determine whether or not a space mission could be conducted safely and within budget constraints. As part of this assessment, a safety policy and safety functional requirements were developed to guide both the safety assessment and future Topaz II activities. A review of the Russian flight safety program was conducted and documented. Our preliminary safety assessment included a top level event tree, neutronic analysis of normal and accident configurations, an evaluation of temperature coefficients of reactivity, a reentry and disposal analysis, and analysis of postulated launch abort impact accidents, and an analysis of postulated propellant fire and explosion accidents. Based on the assessment, it appears that it will be possible to safely launch the Topaz II system in the U.S. with some possible system modifications. The principal system modifications will probably include design changes to preclude water flooded criticality and to assure intact reentry.

  20. Topaz II preliminary safety assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Marshall, A.C. ); Standley, V. ); Voss, S.S. ); Haskin, E. . Dept. of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering)

    1992-01-01

    The Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) decided to investigate the possibility of launching a Russian Topaz 11 space nuclear power system. A preliminary safety assessment was conducted to determine whether or not a space mission could be conducted safely and within budget constraints. As part of this assessment, a safety policy and safety functional requirements were developed to guide both the safely assessment and future Topaz II activities. A review of the Russian flight safety program was conducted and documented. Our preliminary safety assessment included a top level event tree, neutronic analysis of normal and accident configurations, an evaluation of temperature coefficients of reactivity, a reentry and disposal analysis, and analysis of postulated launch abort impact accidents, and an analysis of postulated propellant fire and explosion accidents. Based on the assessment, it appears that it will be possible to safely launch the Topaz II system in the US with some possible system modifications. The principal system modifications will probably include design changes to preclude water flooded criticality and to assure intact reentry.

  1. Topaz II preliminary safety assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Marshall, A.C. ); Standley, V. ); Voss, S.S. ); Haskin, E. )

    1993-01-10

    The Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) decided to investigate the possibility of launching a Russian Topaz II space nuclear power system. A preliminary safety assessment was conducted to determine whether or not a space mission could be conducted safely and within budget constraints. As part of this assessment, a safety policy and safety functional requirements were developed to guide both the safety assessment and future Topaz II activities. A review of the Russian flight safety program was conducted and documented. Our preliminary safety assessment included a top level event tree, neutronic analysis of normal and accident configurations, an evaluation of temperature coefficients of reactivity, a reentry and disposal analysis, and analysis of postulated launch abort impact accidents, and an analysis of postulated propellant fire and explosion accidents. Based on the assessment, it appears that it will be possible to safely launch the Topaz II system in the U.S. with some possible system modifications. The principal system modifications will probably include design changes to preclude water flooded criticality and to assure intact reentry.

  2. 78 FR 8522 - Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Evaluation of the Potential Risk From...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-06

    ... AGENCY Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Evaluation of the Potential Risk From Volatilization... review of chlorpyrifos and opens a public comment period on this document. Registration review is EPA's... has completed a preliminary volatilization assessment for chlorpyrifos uses. After reviewing...

  3. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. ... you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed by the CDC and get a personalized ...

  4. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  5. Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: Preliminary Assessment of Federal Financial Risks and Cost Reimbursement and Notification Policies and Procedures

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-11-12

    amended (OPA), which Congress enacted after the Exxon Valdez spill in 1989, authorized use of the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund (Fund), which is...regulations affects which parties ultimately are subject to the various liabilities and financial risks. In 1990, after the Exxon Valdez oil spill in the...to charge certain costs 77Congress created the Fund in 1986, but not until the Exxon Valdez grounding and the passage

  6. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS - RESIDUAL RISK ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-pollutant impacts of air toxics emissions on human health and the environment. Details on the assessment process and methodologies can be found in EPA's Residual Risk Report to Congress issued in March of 1999 (see web site). To assess the health risks imposed by air toxics emissions from Coke Ovens to determine if control technology standards previously established are adequately protecting public health.

  7. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

  8. GM Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  9. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  10. Strategic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  11. Pollinator Risk Assessment Guidance

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This Guidance is part of a long-term strategy to advance the science of assessing the risks posed by pesticides to honey bees, giving risk managers the means to further improve pollinator protection in our regulatory decisions.

  12. San Mateo Creek Basin Preliminary Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The objective of this Preliminary Assessment is to evaluate the site using the Hazard Ranking System and the Superfund Chemical Data Matrix to determine if a threat to human health and the environment exists such that further action is warranted.

  13. Preliminary ecological risk assessment of butylparaben and benzylparaben -1. Removal efficiency in wastewater treatment, acute/chronic toxicity for aquatic organisms, and effects on medaka gene expression.

    PubMed

    Yamamoto, Hiroshi; Watanabe, Mikako; Hirata, Yoshiko; Nakamura, Yuki; Nakamura, Yudai; Kitani, Chise; Sekizawa, Jun; Uchida, Masaya; Nakamura, Hiroshi; Kagami, Yoshihiro; Koshio, Masaaki; Hirai, Narisato; Tatarazako, Norihisa

    2007-01-01

    Butylparaben and benzylparaben, used as preservatives mainly in cosmetic products, have recently been found to be weakly estrogenic. Batch activated-sludge treatment and batch chlorination were carried out to roughly determine the removal efficiency of a wastewater treatment plant. Combining the removal efficiency with the estimated annual consumption and the unaltered excretion ratio, the maximum predicted environmental concentration (PEC) was estimated. Conventional acute/chronic toxicity tests were conducted using Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes), daphnia (Daphnia magna), and green algae (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata) for n-butylparaben, i-butylparaben, and benzylparaben. Medaka vitellogenin assays were also conducted for the three compounds and DNA microarray analysis was carried out to examine the effects of benzylparaben on gene expression. The plasma vitellogenin concentration of male medaka increased for concentrations of 200, 100, and 100 microg L(-1) n-butylparaben, i-butylparaben, and benzylparaben for 14 days, respectively, while the expression levels of genes encoding proteins such as p53, cytochrome P450 3A40, and choriogenin-L increased for concentrations higher than 4 microg L(-1) of benzylparaben. Furthermore, the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) was calculated using the lethal or effect concentration 50 (LC50 or EC50) values and no-effect concentrations (NOECs) obtained in the toxicity tests for these compounds. The maximum concentrations found in the aquatic environment or sewage effluent (MEC eff) were used to carry out preliminary environmental risk assessment. The calculated MEC/PNEC ratio suggests the necessity of further study such as a more detailed large-scale monitoring and chronic toxicity tests including reproduction inhibition and endocrine disruption.

  14. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hoornstra, E; Notermans, S

    2001-05-21

    The production of safe food is being increasingly based on the use of risk analysis, and this process is now in use to establish national and international food safety objectives. It is also being used more frequently to guarantee that safety objectives are met and that such guarantees are achieved in a cost-effective manner. One part of the overall risk analysis procedure-risk assessment-is the scientific process in which the hazards and risk factors are identified, and the risk estimate or risk profile is determined. Risk assessment is an especially important tool for governments when food safety objectives have to be developed in the case of 'new' contaminants in known products or known contaminants causing trouble in 'new' products. Risk assessment is also an important approach for food companies (i) during product development, (ii) during (hygienic) process optimalization, and (iii) as an extension (validation) of the more qualitative HACCP-plan. This paper discusses these two different types of risk assessment, and uses probability distribution functions to assess the risks posed by Escherichia coli O157:H7 in each case. Such approaches are essential elements of risk management, as they draw on all available information to derive accurate and realistic estimations of the risk posed. The paper also discusses the potential of scenario-analysis in simulating the impact of different or modified risk factors during the consideration of new or improved control measures.

  15. Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  16. Lung cancer risk in relation to traffic-related nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs exposure: a preliminary probabilistic assessment.

    PubMed

    Liao, Chung-Min; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Wei-Yu; Ju, Yun-Ru; Li, Wen-Hsuan; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Liao, Vivian Hsiu-Chuan; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Ling, Min-Pei

    2011-06-15

    Exposures to carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been linked to human lung cancer. The purpose of this study was to assess lung cancer risk caused by inhalation exposure to nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs at the population level in Taiwan appraised with recent published data. A human respiratory tract model was linked with a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model to estimate deposition fraction and internal organic-specific PAHs doses. A probabilistic risk assessment framework was developed to estimate potential lung cancer risk. We reanalyzed particle size distribution, total-PAHs, particle-bound benzo(a)pyrene (B[a]P) and PM concentrations. A dose-response profile describing the relationships between external B[a]P concentration and lung cancer risk response was constructed based on population attributable fraction (PAF). We found that 90% probability lung cancer risks ranged from 10(-5) to 10(-4) for traffic-related nano and ultrafine particle-bound PAHs, indicating a potential lung cancer risk. The particle size-specific PAF-based excess annual lung cancer incidence rate due to PAHs exposure was estimated to be less than 1 per 100,000 population, indicating a mild risk factor for lung cancer. We concluded that probabilistic risk assessment linked PAF for limiting cumulative PAHs emissions to reduce lung cancer risk plays a prominent role in future government risk assessment program.

  17. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson; Wagner, Stefan M.; Shigematsu, Mika; Risi, George; Kozlovac, Joe; Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke; Prat, Esmeralda

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  18. Development of a 4-NQO toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach to enable a preliminary risk assessment of unknown genotoxic compounds detected by the Ames II test in UV/H₂O₂ water treatment samples.

    PubMed

    Martijn, Bram J; Van Rompay, An R; Penders, Eric J M; Alharbi, Yousif; Baggelaar, Paul K; Kruithof, Joop C; Rietjens, Ivonne M C M

    2016-02-01

    An approach to enable a preliminary risk assessment of unknown genotoxic compounds formed by MP UV/H2O2 treatment of nitrate rich water, is described. Since the identity and concentration of specific genotoxic compounds is not established yet, a compound specific risk assessment cannot be performed. This limitation is circumvented by introducing a toxic equivalency factor, converting the concentration of unknown genotoxic compounds expressed by an Ames II test response into equivalent concentrations of 4-nitroquinoline oxide (4-NQO), to enable a preliminary risk assessment. Based on the obtained 4-NQO equivalent concentrations for the tested water samples and 4-NQO carcinogenicity data, an indication of the associated risk of the by MP UV/H2O2 treatment produced nitrated genotoxic compounds is obtained via the margin of exposure (MOE) approach. Based on a carcinogen study by Tang et al. (2004), a body weight of 70 kg and a drinking water consumption of 2 L per day, the 4-NQO equivalent concentration should not exceed 80 ng/L associated with a negligible risk. Application of this approach on samples from MP UV/H2O2 treated water of a full scale drinking water production facility, a 4-NQO equivalent concentration of 107 ng/L was established. These results indicate a safety concern in case this water would be distributed as drinking water without further post treatment.

  19. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  20. Risk Assessment Tools

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-10-01

    2W0 ww) A number of computer-based risk assessment tools were enhanced or creaited to provide Increased access to risk assessment instruments and...produced an extensible authoring tool , SYNTAS, for test instruments that will simplify the data gathering phase of subsequent work. SYNTAS gives DNA...Ultimately it became a computer-assisted software engineerting (CASE) tool capable of producing a wide variety of assessment instruments . In addition, its

  1. Landslide risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  2. EPA Releases the First of Four Preliminary Risk Assessments for Insecticides Potentially Harmful to Bees/First-of-its-kind assessment delivers on President Obamas National Pollinator Strategy

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Delivering on the President's National Pollinator Strategy means EPA is committed not only to protecting bees and reversing bee loss, but for the first time assessing the health of the colony for the neonicotinoid pesticides, said Jim Jones Assista

  3. Public Risk Assessment Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  4. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  5. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Greg

    2003-01-01

    Schedule Risk Assessment needs to determine the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. Task in a schedule should reflect the "most likely" duration for each task. IN reality, each task is different and has a varying degree of probability of finishing within or after the duration specified. Schedule risk assessment attempt to quantify these probabilities by assigning values to each task. Bridges the gap between CPM scheduling and the project's need to know the likelihood of "when".

  6. Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment provide EPA staff with guidance for developing and using risk assessments. They also provide basic information to the public about the Agency's risk assessment methods.

  7. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Findings

    SciTech Connect

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-07-16

    Often the methodologies for assessing proliferation risk are focused around the inherent vulnerability of nuclear energy systems and associated safeguards. For example an accepted approach involves ways to measure the intrinsic and extrinsic barriers to potential proliferation. This paper describes preliminary investigation into non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve proliferation assessment and advance the approach to assessing nuclear material diversion. Proliferation resistance assessment, safeguard assessments and related studies typically create technical information about the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to diversion of nuclear material. The purpose of this research project is to find ways to integrate social information with technical information by explicitly considering the role of culture, groups and/or individuals to factors that impact the possibility of proliferation. When final, this work is expected to describe and demonstrate the utility of social science modeling in proliferation and proliferation risk assessments.

  8. Assessment of Risk in Newborns.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Umansky, Warren; Seaton, Jane B.

    1979-01-01

    To assess risk status of newborns, data were collected on 776 newborns using a high risk register. Analysis of high risk characteristics revealed 261 primary risk incidents in the sample and 292 secondary risk factors. (Author/PHR)

  9. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  10. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R. G.; Jusko, M. J.; Clemmons, M. A.

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates are based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.

  11. Risk assessment for pulmonary resection.

    PubMed

    Brunelli, Alessandro

    2010-01-01

    Risk assessment for pulmonary resection must include a preliminary cardiac evaluation. Patients deemed at prohibitive cardiac risk should be evaluated and treated as per American Heart Association/American Society of Cardiology guidelines. Those with low cardiac risk or with optimized treatment can proceed with pulmonary assessment. A systematic measurement of lung carbon monoxide diffusing capacity is recommended. In addition, predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second should not be used alone for patient selection because it is not an accurate predictor of complications, particularly in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The use of exercise testing should be emphasized. Low-technology tests, such as stair climbing, can be used whenever a formal cardiopulmonary exercise test is not readily available. However, in case of suboptimal performance (ie, <22 m in the stair-climbing test) patients should be referred to cardiopulmonary exercise testing with measurement of Vo(2max) for a better definition of their aerobic reserve. A Vo(2max) less than 10 mL/kg/min (or <35% of predicted) indicates a high risk for major lung resection.

  12. Preliminary melter performance assessment report

    SciTech Connect

    Elliott, M.L.; Eyler, L.L.; Mahoney, L.A.; Cooper, M.F.; Whitney, L.D.; Shafer, P.J.

    1994-08-01

    The Melter Performance Assessment activity, a component of the Pacific Northwest Laboratory`s (PNL) Vitrification Technology Development (PVTD) effort, was designed to determine the impact of noble metals on the operational life of the reference Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant (HWVP) melter. The melter performance assessment consisted of several activities, including a literature review of all work done with noble metals in glass, gradient furnace testing to study the behavior of noble metals during the melting process, research-scale and engineering-scale melter testing to evaluate effects of noble metals on melter operation, and computer modeling that used the experimental data to predict effects of noble metals on the full-scale melter. Feed used in these tests simulated neutralized current acid waste (NCAW) feed. This report summarizes the results of the melter performance assessment and predicts the lifetime of the HWVP melter. It should be noted that this work was conducted before the recent Tri-Party Agreement changes, so the reference melter referred to here is the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) melter design.

  13. Preliminary Assessment of Turbomachinery Codes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mazumder, Quamrul H.

    2007-01-01

    This report assesses different CFD codes developed and currently being used at Glenn Research Center to predict turbomachinery fluid flow and heat transfer behavior. This report will consider the following codes: APNASA, TURBO, GlennHT, H3D, and SWIFT. Each code will be described separately in the following section with their current modeling capabilities, level of validation, pre/post processing, and future development and validation requirements. This report addresses only previously published and validations of the codes. However, the codes have been further developed to extend the capabilities of the codes.

  14. GM risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, P A C

    2010-03-01

    GM risk assessments (GMRAs) play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of each GMRA will be able to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to asses any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all "what if" scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This article sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GMRA. While reference is made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  15. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  16. A support vector machine designed to identify breasts at high risk using multi-probe generated REIS signals: a preliminary assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gur, David; Zheng, Bin; Lederman, Dror; Dhurjaty, Sreeram; Sumkin, Jules; Zuley, Margarita

    2010-02-01

    A new resonance-frequency based electronic impedance spectroscopy (REIS) system with multi-probes, including one central probe and six external probes that are designed to contact the breast skin in a circular form with a radius of 60 millimeters to the central ("nipple") probe, has been assembled and installed in our breast imaging facility. We are conducting a prospective clinical study to test the performance of this REIS system in identifying younger women (< 50 years old) at higher risk for having or developing breast cancer. In this preliminary analysis, we selected a subset of 100 examinations. Among these, 50 examinations were recommended for a biopsy due to detection of a highly suspicious breast lesion and 50 were determined negative during mammography screening. REIS output signal sweeps that we used to compute an initial feature included both amplitude and phase information representing differences between corresponding (matched) EIS signal values acquired from the left and right breasts. A genetic algorithm was applied to reduce the feature set and optimize a support vector machine (SVM) to classify the REIS examinations into "biopsy recommended" and "non-biopsy" recommended groups. Using the leave-one-case-out testing method, the classification performance as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.816 +/- 0.042. This pilot analysis suggests that the new multi-probe-based REIS system could potentially be used as a risk stratification tool to identify pre-screened young women who are at higher risk of having or developing breast cancer.

  17. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  18. Falls risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Gallacher, Rose

    2017-02-22

    What was the nature of the CPD activity, practice-related feedback and/or event and/or experience in your practice? The CPD article outlined the causes and consequences of falls for older patients. It discussed the falls risk assessment tools, and falls prevention measures.

  19. Formaldehyde risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

  20. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-06-01

    This Preliminary Assessment draft report will present the results of a literature search and preliminary assessment of the body of research, analysis methods, models and data deemed to be relevant to the Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment research. This report will provide: 1) a description of the problem space and the kinds of information pertinent to the problem space, 2) a discussion of key relevant or representative literature, 3) a discussion of models and modeling approaches judged to be potentially useful to the research, and 4) the next steps of this research that will be pursued based on this preliminary assessment. This draft report represents a technical deliverable for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling (SAM) program. Specifically this draft report is the Task 1 deliverable for project PL09-UtilSocial-PD06, Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment. This project investigates non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessment, including nonproliferation assessment, proliferation resistance assessments, safeguards assessments and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about the State’s posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This project will find and fuse social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation. The aim of this research is to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment.

  1. Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture is a local event in the aneurysm wall that naturally demands tools to assess the risk for local wall rupture. Consequently, global parameters like the maximum diameter and its expansion over time can only give very rough risk indications; therefore, they frequently fail to predict individual risk for AAA rupture. In contrast, the Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment (BRRA) method investigates the wall’s risk for local rupture by quantitatively integrating many known AAA rupture risk factors like female sex, large relative expansion, intraluminal thrombus-related wall weakening, and high blood pressure. The BRRA method is almost 20 years old and has progressed considerably in recent years, it can now potentially enrich the diameter indication for AAA repair. The present paper reviews the current state of the BRRA method by summarizing its key underlying concepts (i.e., geometry modeling, biomechanical simulation, and result interpretation). Specifically, the validity of the underlying model assumptions is critically disused in relation to the intended simulation objective (i.e., a clinical AAA rupture risk assessment). Next, reported clinical BRRA validation studies are summarized, and their clinical relevance is reviewed. The BRRA method is a generic, biomechanics-based approach that provides several interfaces to incorporate information from different research disciplines. As an example, the final section of this review suggests integrating growth aspects to (potentially) further improve BRRA sensitivity and specificity. Despite the fact that no prospective validation studies are reported, a significant and still growing body of validation evidence suggests integrating the BRRA method into the clinical decision-making process (i.e., enriching diameter-based decision-making in AAA patient treatment). PMID:27757402

  2. Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

    PubMed

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

  3. Nanotechnologies: Risk assessment model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giacobbe, F.; Monica, L.; Geraci, D.

    2009-05-01

    The development and use of nanomaterials has grown widely in the last years. Hence, it is necessary to carry out a careful and aimed risk assessment for the safety of the workers. The objective of this research is a specific assessment model finalized to the workplaces where the personnel work manipulating nanoparticles. This model mainly takes into account the number of exposed workers, the dimensions of particles, the information found in the safety data sheets and the uncertainties about the danger level coming from the exposition to nanomaterials. The evaluation algorithm considers the normal work conditions, the abnormal (e.g. breakdown air filter) and emergency situations (e.g. package cracking). It has been necessary to define several risk conditions in order to quantify the risk by increasing levels ("low", "middle" and "high" level). Each level includes appropriate behavioural procedures. In particular for the high level, it is advisable that the user carries out urgent interventions finalized to reduce the risk level (e.g. the utilization of vacuum box for the manipulation, high efficiency protection PPE, etc). The model has been implemented in a research laboratory where titanium dioxide and carbon nanotubes are used. The outcomes taken out from such specific evaluation gave a risk level equal to middle.

  4. Development and preliminary validation of the Opioid Abuse Risk Screener

    PubMed Central

    Henrie-Barrus, Patricia; Averill, Lynnette A; Sudweeks, Richard R; Averill, Christopher L; Mota, Natalie

    2016-01-01

    Prescription opioid drug abuse has reached epidemic proportions. Individuals with chronic pain represent a large population at considerable risk of abusing opioids. The Opioid Abuse Risk Screener was developed as a comprehensive self-administered measure of potential risk that includes a wide range of critical elements noted in the literature to be relevant to opioid risk. The creation, refinement, and preliminary modeling of the item pool, establishment of preliminary concurrent validity, and the determination of the factor structure are presented. The initial development and validation of the Opioid Abuse Risk Screener shows promise for effective risk stratification. PMID:28070401

  5. Development and preliminary validation of the Opioid Abuse Risk Screener.

    PubMed

    Henrie-Barrus, Patricia; Averill, Lynnette A; Sudweeks, Richard R; Averill, Christopher L; Mota, Natalie

    2016-01-01

    Prescription opioid drug abuse has reached epidemic proportions. Individuals with chronic pain represent a large population at considerable risk of abusing opioids. The Opioid Abuse Risk Screener was developed as a comprehensive self-administered measure of potential risk that includes a wide range of critical elements noted in the literature to be relevant to opioid risk. The creation, refinement, and preliminary modeling of the item pool, establishment of preliminary concurrent validity, and the determination of the factor structure are presented. The initial development and validation of the Opioid Abuse Risk Screener shows promise for effective risk stratification.

  6. Risk Assessment System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    FEAT, a software system for evaluating risks, was developed by Lockheed and later enhanced under NASA funding. FEAT uses directed graph - or digraph - models to provide information on cause and effect if a set of failure events occurs. James Miller, the program designer at Lockheed, formed DiGraphics, Inc. to market the software that has evolved from FEAT. The Diquest Analyzer, the company's flagship product, assists product designers in identifying the redundancies and weaknesses of a system. The software has applications in the chemical industry for risk assessment, design evaluation, and change management. Additional markets have been found in operations monitoring diagnostics and training of new personnel.

  7. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    SciTech Connect

    Lipfert, F.W.; Saroff, L.

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  8. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  9. Biota Modeling in EPA's Preliminary Remediation Goal and Dose Compliance Concentration Calculators for Use in EPA Superfund Risk Assessment: Explanation of Intake Rate Derivation, Transfer Factor Compilation, and Mass Loading Factor Sources

    SciTech Connect

    Manning, Karessa L.; Dolislager, Fredrick G.; Bellamy, Michael B.

    2016-11-01

    The Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) calculators are screening level tools that set forth Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA) recommended approaches, based upon currently available information with respect to risk assessment, for response actions at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites, commonly known as Superfund. The screening levels derived by the PRG and DCC calculators are used to identify isotopes contributing the highest risk and dose as well as establish preliminary remediation goals. Each calculator has a residential gardening scenario and subsistence farmer exposure scenarios that require modeling of the transfer of contaminants from soil and water into various types of biota (crops and animal products). New publications of human intake rates of biota; farm animal intakes of water, soil, and fodder; and soil to plant interactions require updates be implemented into the PRG and DCC exposure scenarios. Recent improvements have been made in the biota modeling for these calculators, including newly derived biota intake rates, more comprehensive soil mass loading factors (MLFs), and more comprehensive soil to tissue transfer factors (TFs) for animals and soil to plant transfer factors (BV s). New biota have been added in both the produce and animal products categories that greatly improve the accuracy and utility of the PRG and DCC calculators and encompass greater geographic diversity on a national and international scale.

  10. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  11. Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  12. Temporal trends in the levels of metals, PCDD/Fs and PCBs in the vicinity of a municipal solid waste incinerator. Preliminary assessment of human health risks.

    PubMed

    Rovira, Joaquim; Vilavert, Lolita; Nadal, Martí; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

    2015-09-01

    The concentrations of PCDD/Fs, PCBs, and metals were determined in soil and air samples collected near a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) located in Mataró (Catalonia, Spain), being the health risks for the population living in the vicinity of the facility subsequently assessed. We also established the temporal trends with respect to previous surveys performed in the same zone. In general terms, the highest environmental levels of the pollutants were found in the city of Mataró and were independent on the distance to the MSWI. Soil levels of metals did not show temporal variations between the current and previous campaigns. However, the concentrations of metals in air samples collected in 2011 and 2013, were lower than those found in our 2008 survey. Regarding PCDD/Fs and PCBs, no differences were noted between the levels of the current survey and those corresponding to 2008. Anyhow, the concentrations of metals, PCDD/Fs, and PCBs in soils and air did not exceed the reference values established by regulatory organizations, being also in the low range of other similar studies recently reported. Finally, the human non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks due to exposure to metals, PCDD/Fs, and PCBs, were, for the population living in the neighborhood of the MSWI, considered as acceptable according to international standards.

  13. Ecological risk assessment, prediction, and assessing risk predictions.

    PubMed

    Gibbs, Mark

    2011-11-01

    Ecological risk assessment embodied in an adaptive management framework is becoming the global standard approach for formally assessing and managing the ecological risks of technology and development. Ensuring the continual improvement of ecological risk assessment approaches is partly achieved through the dissemination of not only the types of risk assessment approaches used, but also their efficacy. While there is an increasing body of literature describing the results of general comparisons between alternate risk assessment methods and models, there is a paucity of literature that post hoc assesses the performance of specific predictions based on an assessment of risk and the effectiveness of the particular model used to predict the risk. This is especially the case where risk assessments have been used to grant consent or approval for the construction of major infrastructure projects. While postconstruction environmental monitoring is increasingly commonplace, it is not common for a postconstruction assessment of the accuracy and performance of the ecological risk assessment and underpinning model to be undertaken. Without this "assessment of the assessment," it is difficult for other practitioners to gain insight into the performance of the approach and models used and therefore, as argued here, this limits the rate of improvement of risk assessment approaches.

  14. Risk assessment for safety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hadlock, Charles R.; Glaser, Peter E.

    The application of probabilistic risk-assessment techniques to space missions is discussed, with a focus on the International Space Station. The types of hazards likely to be caused by random events; design, operational, and management errors; and intentional intervention are examined along with their secondary effects; and the top-level safety requirements defined by NASA are considered. It is suggested that such qualitative stipulations be supplemented with more quantitative measures such as used in the nuclear-power industry; the major features of such quantitative methods are reviewed.

  15. Risk assessment in travel medicine.

    PubMed

    Leggat, Peter A

    2006-01-01

    Risk assessment is an integral part of pre-travel and post- assessment. Risk assessment largely determines what health and safety advice and interventions are given within the relevant prevailing travel health guidelines. Risk assessment needs time and depends on information, including that given by the traveller. Risk assessment also needs to be documented. Risk assessment of the traveller preferably starts before they enter the consulting room, where travellers may complete a pre-travel health questionnaire. Armed with this information, risk assessment may be assisted by access to computerised travel health databases and the published literature. Experience of travel to the destination may also assist in risk assessment and the tour operator, overseas employer or agency, the traveller or even the travel health advisers themselves may provide this information.

  16. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  17. Risk assessment for carnitine.

    PubMed

    Hathcock, John N; Shao, Andrew

    2006-10-01

    Carnitine is a conditionally essential amino acid-like compound involved in the transport of long-chain fatty acids into the mitochondria during the beta-oxidation process. Carnitine has become an increasingly popular ingredient in dietary supplements, especially weight loss and some sports nutrition products. A number of clinical trials have been conducted examining the effect of carnitine supplementation on weight loss and energy balance. Regarding safety, systematic evaluation of the research designs and data do not provide a basis for risk assessment and the usual safe upper level of intake (UL) derived from it unless the newer methods described as the observed safe level (OSL) or highest observed intake (HOI) are utilized. The OSL risk assessment method indicates that the evidence of safety is strong at intakes up to 2000mg/day l-carnitine equivalents for chronic supplementation, and this level is identified as the OSL. Although much higher levels have been tested without adverse effects and may be safe, the data for intakes above 2000mg/day are not sufficient for a confident conclusion of long-term safety.

  18. Advances in stalking risk assessment.

    PubMed

    McEwan, Troy E; Pathé, Michele; Ogloff, James R P

    2011-01-01

    Over the past 15 years, forensic mental health has become more concerned with the concepts of violence prevention, management, and treatment. The development of specialist tools to aid in the assessment of a range of risks reflects this concern. This article explores contemporary thinking on violence risk assessment and how this knowledge can be applied to the relatively newer field of stalking risk assessment. The role of risk state and risk status are discussed, in addition to the way that standard structured professional judgment procedures need to be adapted to reflect the variety of risks present in stalking situations. The authors go on to describe the development and format of the Stalking Risk Profile, a set of structured professional judgment guidelines for assessing risk in stalkers. Suggestions are made for future research to enhance knowledge and improve practice in the field of stalking risk assessment.

  19. Preliminary assessment of risk from toxic materials that might be mobilized in the decommissioning of Aberdeen Proving Ground Building E5032

    SciTech Connect

    Rosenblatt, D.H.; Brubaker, K.L.

    1991-12-01

    Aberdeen Proving Ground Building E5032 is scheduled for decommissioning, that is, for demolition. Because the building was formerly used for small-scale operations with incendiary and toxic chemical agents, it presents unusual concerns for occupational and public health safety during the demolition. For this reason, an anticipatory risk assessment was conducted, taking into consideration the building`s history, properties of potential residual contaminants (particularly chemical and incendiary agents), and assumptions relating to meteorological conditions and envisioned modes of demolition. Safe maximum levels in concrete floors for the worst case were estimated to be: white phosphorus, 3200 mg/kg; mustard, 94 mg/kg; nerve agent GA (tabun), 6 mg/kg; cyanide, 500 mg/kg; and sulfide, 1400 mg/kg. These values will serve as planning guidance for the activities to follow. It is emphasized that the estimates must be reviewed, and perhaps revised, after sampling and analysis are completed, the demolition methodology is chosen, and dust emissions are measured under operating conditions.

  20. Preliminary assessment of risk from toxic materials that might be mobilized in the decommissioning of Aberdeen Proving Ground Building E5032

    SciTech Connect

    Rosenblatt, D.H.; Brubaker, K.L.

    1991-12-01

    Aberdeen Proving Ground Building E5032 is scheduled for decommissioning, that is, for demolition. Because the building was formerly used for small-scale operations with incendiary and toxic chemical agents, it presents unusual concerns for occupational and public health safety during the demolition. For this reason, an anticipatory risk assessment was conducted, taking into consideration the building's history, properties of potential residual contaminants (particularly chemical and incendiary agents), and assumptions relating to meteorological conditions and envisioned modes of demolition. Safe maximum levels in concrete floors for the worst case were estimated to be: white phosphorus, 3200 mg/kg; mustard, 94 mg/kg; nerve agent GA (tabun), 6 mg/kg; cyanide, 500 mg/kg; and sulfide, 1400 mg/kg. These values will serve as planning guidance for the activities to follow. It is emphasized that the estimates must be reviewed, and perhaps revised, after sampling and analysis are completed, the demolition methodology is chosen, and dust emissions are measured under operating conditions.

  1. Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) by Multi-parametric Observations: Preliminary Results of PRIME experiment within the PRE-EARTHQUAKES EU-FP7 Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tramutoli, V.; Inan, S.; Jakowski, N.; Pulinets, S. A.; Romanov, A.; Filizzola, C.; Shagimuratov, I.; Pergola, N.; Ouzounov, D. P.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Parrot, M.; Genzano, N.; Lisi, M.; Alparlsan, E.; Wilken, V.; Tsybukia, K.; Romanov, A.; Paciello, R.; Zakharenkova, I.; Romano, G.

    2012-12-01

    The integration of different observations together with the refinement of data analysis methods, is generally expected to improve our present knowledge of preparatory phases of earthquakes and of their possible precursors. This is also the main goal of PRE-EARTHQUAKES (Processing Russian and European EARTH observations for earthQUAKE precursors Studies) the FP7 Project which, to this aim, committed together, different international expertise and observational capabilities, in the last 2 years. In the learning phase of the project, different parameters (e.g. thermal anomalies, total electron content, radon concentration, etc.), measured from ground and satellite systems and analyzed by using different data analysis approaches, have been studied for selected geographic areas and specific seismic events in the past. Since July 2012 the PRIME (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Real-time Integration and Monitoring Experiment) started attempting to perform, on the base of independent observations collected and integrated in real-time through the PEG (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Geo-portal), a Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) on selected geographic areas of Europe (Italy-Greece-Turkey) and Asia (Kamchatka, Sakhalin, Japan). In this paper, results so far achieved as well as the potential and opportunities they open for a worldwide Earthquake Observation System (EQuOS) - as a dedicated component of GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems) - will be presented.

  2. Optimal Temporal Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Simen, Patrick; deSouza, Laura; Cohen, Jonathan D.; Holmes, Philip

    2011-01-01

    Time is an essential feature of most decisions, because the reward earned from decisions frequently depends on the temporal statistics of the environment (e.g., on whether decisions must be made under deadlines). Accordingly, evolution appears to have favored a mechanism that predicts intervals in the seconds to minutes range with high accuracy on average, but significant variability from trial to trial. Importantly, the subjective sense of time that results is sufficiently imprecise that maximizing rewards in decision-making can require substantial behavioral adjustments (e.g., accumulating less evidence for a decision in order to beat a deadline). Reward maximization in many daily decisions therefore requires optimal temporal risk assessment. Here, we review the temporal decision-making literature, conduct secondary analyses of relevant published datasets, and analyze the results of a new experiment. The paper is organized in three parts. In the first part, we review literature and analyze existing data suggesting that animals take account of their inherent behavioral variability (their “endogenous timing uncertainty”) in temporal decision-making. In the second part, we review literature that quantitatively demonstrates nearly optimal temporal risk assessment with sub-second and supra-second intervals using perceptual tasks (with humans and mice) and motor timing tasks (with humans). We supplement this section with original research that tested human and rat performance on a task that requires finding the optimal balance between two time-dependent quantities for reward maximization. This optimal balance in turn depends on the level of timing uncertainty. Corroborating the reviewed literature, humans and rats exhibited nearly optimal temporal risk assessment in this task. In the third section, we discuss the role of timing uncertainty in reward maximization in two-choice perceptual decision-making tasks and review literature that implicates timing uncertainty

  3. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-08-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data.

  4. Fact Sheet: Assessing Risks from Flame Retardants

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  5. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  6. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    SciTech Connect

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area.

  7. Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E.

    1995-09-01

    This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC.

  8. Guidance for performing preliminary assessments under CERCLA

    SciTech Connect

    1991-09-01

    EPA headquarters and a national site assessment workgroup produced this guidance for Regional, State, and contractor staff who manage or perform preliminary assessments (PAs). EPA has focused this guidance on the types of sites and site conditions most commonly encountered. The PA approach described in this guidance is generally applicable to a wide variety of sites. However, because of the variability among sites, the amount of information available, and the level of investigative effort required, it is not possible to provide guidance that is equally applicable to all sites. PA investigators should recognize this and be aware that variation from this guidance may be necessary for some sites, particularly for PAs performed at Federal facilities, PAs conducted under EPA`s Environmental Priorities Initiative (EPI), and PAs at sites that have previously been extensively investigated by EPA or others. The purpose of this guidance is to provide instructions for conducting a PA and reporting results. This guidance discusses the information required to evaluate a site and how to obtain it, how to score a site, and reporting requirements. This document also provides guidelines and instruction on PA evaluation, scoring, and the use of standard PA scoresheets. The overall goal of this guidance is to assist PA investigators in conducting high-quality assessments that result in correct site screening or further action recommendations on a nationally consistent basis.

  9. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  10. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

  11. Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baert, K.; Francois, K.; de Meulenaer, B.; Devlieghere, F.

    A risk can be defined as a function of the probability of an adverse health effect and the severity of that effect, consequential to a hazard in food (Codex Alimentarius, 1999) . During a risk assessment, an estimate of the risk is obtained. The goal is to estimate the likelihood and the extent of adverse effects occurring to humans due to possible exposure(s) to hazards. Risk assessment is a scientifically based process consisting of the following steps: (1) hazard identification, (2) hazard characterization, (3) exposure assessment and (4) and risk characterization (Codex Alimentarius, 1999).

  12. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment.

  13. Preliminary dose assessment of the Chernobyl accident

    SciTech Connect

    Hull, A.P.

    1987-01-01

    From the major accident at Unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power station, a plume of airborne radioactive fission products was initially carried northwesterly toward Poland, thence toward Scandinavia and into Central Europe. Reports of the levels of radioactivity in a variety of media and of external radiation levels were collected in the Department of Energy's Emergency Operations Center and compiled into a data bank. Portions of these and other data which were obtained directly from published and official reports were utilized to make a preliminary assessment of the extent and magnitude of the external dose to individuals downwind from Chernobyl. Radioactive /sup 131/I was the predominant fission product. The time of arrival of the plume and the maximum concentrations of /sup 131/I in air, vegetation and milk and the maximum reported depositions and external radiation levels have been tabulated country by country. A large amount of the total activity in the release was apparently carried to a significant elevation. The data suggest that in areas where rainfall occurred, deposition levels were from ten to one-hundred times those observed in nearby ''dry'' locations. Sufficient spectral data were obtained to establish average release fractions and to establish a reference spectra of the other nuclides in the release. Preliminary calculations indicated that the collective dose equivalent to the population in Scandinavia and Central Europe during the first year after the Chernobyl accident would be about 8 x 10/sup 6/ person-rem. From the Soviet report, it appears that a first year population dose of about 2 x 10/sup 7/ person-rem (2 x 10/sup 5/ Sv) will be received by the population who were downwind of Chernobyl within the U.S.S.R. during the accident and its subsequent releases over the following week. 32 refs., 14 figs., 20 tabs.

  14. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  15. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    PubMed

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  16. AVLIS Criticality risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Brereton, S.J., LLNL

    1998-04-29

    U-235 and uranium depleted in U-235) are cooled and accumulated in solid metallic form in canisters. The collected product and tails material is weighed and transferred into certified, critically safe, shipping containers (DOT specification 6M with 2R containment vessel). These will be temporarily stored, and then shipped offsite either for use by a fuel fabricator, or for disposal. Tails material will be packaged for disposal. A criticality risk assessment was performed for AVLIS IPD runs. In this analysis, the likelihood of occurrence of a criticality was examined. For the AVLIS process, there are a number of areas that have been specifically examined to assess whether or not the frequency of occurrence of a criticality is credible (frequency of occurrence > 10-6/yr). In this paper, we discuss only two of the areas: the separator and canister operations.

  17. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  18. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: MAGNETIC TAPE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  19. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  20. Risk-Assessment Computer Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dias, William C.; Mittman, David S.

    1993-01-01

    RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

  1. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

  2. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  3. Preliminary Youth Risk Behavior Survey Results--1993.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Joyce, Comp.

    This paper provides the results of a 1993 survey of 2,684 New Hampshire high school students in regard to risk taking, personal violence, suicide, tobacco use, alcohol abuse, drug abuse, acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) education, sexual activity, nutrition, and exercise. It found that in the preceding 30 days, 10.8 percent of students…

  4. PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL, HEALTH AND SAFETY RISK ASSESSMENT ON THE INTEGRATION OF A PROCESS UTILIZING LOW-ENERGY SOLVENTS FOR CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE ENABLED BY A COMBINATION OF ENZYMES AND VACUUM REGENERATION WITH A SUBCRITICAL PC POWER PLANT

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzgerald, David; Vidal, Rafael; Russell, Tania; Babcock, Doosan; Freeman, Charles; Bearden, Mark; Whyatt, Greg; Liu, Kun; Frimpong, Reynolds; Lu, Kunlei; Salmon, Sonja; House, Alan; Yarborough, Erin

    2014-12-31

    The results of the preliminary environmental, health and safety (EH&S) risk assessment for an enzyme-activated potassium carbonate (K2CO3) solution post-combustion CO2 capture (PCC) plant, integrated with a subcritical pulverized coal (PC) power plant, are presented. The expected emissions during normal steady-state operation have been estimated utilizing models of the PCC plant developed in AspenTech’s AspenPlus® software, bench scale test results from the University of Kentucky, and industrial experience of emission results from a slipstream PCC plant utilizing amine based solvents. A review of all potential emission species and their sources was undertaken that identified two credible emission sources, the absorber off-gas that is vented to atmosphere via a stack and the waste removed from the PCC plant in the centrifuge used to reclaim enzyme and solvent. The conditions and compositions of the emissions were calculated and the potential EH&S effects were considered as well as legislative compliance requirements. Potential mitigation methods for emissions during normal operation have been proposed and solutions to mitigate uncontrolled releases of species have been considered. The potential emissions were found to pose no significant EH&S concerns and were compliant with the Federal legislation reviewed. The limitations in predicting full scale plant performance from bench scale tests have been noted and further work on a larger scale test unit is recommended to reduce the level of uncertainty.

  5. Suicidal ideation: Are refugees more at risk compared to host population? Findings from a preliminary assessment in a refugee community in Nigeria.

    PubMed

    Akinyemi, O O; Atilola, O; Soyannwo, T

    2015-12-01

    Among the serious mental health problems that may be associated with being a refugee is suicidal behavior. This study aimed to assess the prevalence and correlates of suicidal ideation among African refugees in Oru-Ijebu Nigeria. Suicidal ideation was assessed using appropriate section in the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview while the brief version of the WHO Quality of Life was used to assess quality of life as a clinical variable. Study involved 444 refugees and 527 non-refugee member of host community. Result showed that the prevalence of suicidal ideation was significantly higher among the refugees than the non-refugee comparison group (27.3% vs. 17.3%; p<0.001). Social status and quality of life was significantly poorer among the refugees compared with their non-refugee members of same community. Quality of life was the only factor independently associated with suicidal ideations among refugees. In conclusion, the study shows that the prevalence of suicidal ideation is significantly higher among the refugees than the non-refugee members of the host community and calls for innovative ways of extending mental health services to refugees at the study site.

  6. Risk assessment of dietary supplements.

    PubMed

    Boobis, Alan R

    2007-01-01

    Risk assessment of dietary supplements shares many of the requirements of that for other chemicals, although there are some important differences. Amongst these is the essential nature of some nutrients so that it may be necessary to balance the need to minimize toxicological risk with the need to avoid deficiency. There may also be limitations on experimental design, in that high doses may not be achievable for nutritional reasons and available human data on toxicological hazard is likely to be very limited. Prior to embarking on a risk assessment the problem needs to be formulated. This involves risk assessors, risk managers and relevant stakeholders. A key decision is whether a risk assessment is necessary and, if so, what is required of the assessment. This will shape the nature and output of the assessment. Risk assessment itself is a scientific process comprising four steps, hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment and risk characterization. Hazard identification involves determining the range of toxicological effects that might be caused by the substance, whilst hazard characterization establishes dose-response relationships, toxicological and species relevance of the findings and establishes health based guidance values. Exposure assessment involves predicting or measuring the level, pattern and duration of intake of the substance by exposed individuals. This may require dietary consumption data. Finally, risk characterization is the process whereby all of the prior information is integrated to reach conclusions in a form appropriate to the question posed. The nature of the output can take several different forms, and may be qualitative or quantitative. There are some cross-cutting issues in risk assessment, primarily on uncertainty and variability. The sources of uncertainty at each step of the risk assessment should be clearly identified and quantified to the extent possible. Variability requires that the risk assessment should

  7. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  8. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  9. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  10. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-03-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe a qualitative risk assessment process that supplements the requirements of DOE/AL 5481.1B. Although facility managers have a choice of assessing risk either quantitatively or qualitatively, trade offs are involved in making the most appropriate choice for a given application. The results that can be obtained from a quantitative risk assessment are significantly more robust than those results derived from a qualitative approach. However, the advantages derived from quantitative risk assessment are achieved at a greater expenditure of money, time and convenience. This document provides the elements of a framework for performing a much less costly qualitative risk assessment, while retaining the best attributes of quantitative methods. The approach discussed herein will; (1) provide facility managers with the tools to prepare consistent, site wide assessments, and (2) aid the reviewers who may be tasked to evaluate the assessments. Added cost/benefit measures of the qualitative methodology include the identification of mechanisms for optimally allocating resources for minimizing risk in an expeditious, and fiscally responsible manner.

  11. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  12. APPROACHES FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recognizing the need to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of risk assessments globally, the WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development form...

  13. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: HALOGENATED SOLVENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Halogenated Solvent Degreasing Facilities. These assessments utilize existing models and d...

  14. The risk assessment information system

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.

    1998-06-01

    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at http://risk.lsd.ornl.gov/homepage/rap{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at http://www.doe.gov/riskcenter/home.html.

  15. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  16. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  17. Carcinogen risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed.

  18. Groundwater abstraction pollution risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lytton, L; Howe, S; Sage, R; Greenaway, P

    2003-01-01

    A generic groundwater pollution risk assessment methodology has been developed to enable the evaluation and ranking of the potential risk of pollution to groundwater abstractions. The ranking can then be used to prioritise risk management or mitigation procedures in a robust and quantifiable framework and thus inform business investment decisions. The risk assessment consider the three components of the pollution transport model: source-pathway-receptor. For groundwater abstractions these correspond to land use (with associated pollutants and shallow subsurface characteristics), aquifer and the abstraction borehole. An hierarchical approach was chosen to allow the risk assessment to be successfully carried out with different quality data for different parts of the model. The 400-day groundwater protection zone defines the catchment boundary that form the spatial limit of the land use audit for each receptor. A risk score is obtained for each land use (potential pollution source) within the catchment. These scores are derived by considering the characteristics (such as load, persistence and toxicity) of all pollutants pertaining to each land use, their on-site management and the potential for the unsaturated subsurface to attenuate their effects in the event of a release. Risk scores are also applied to the aquifer characteristics (as pollutant pathway) and to the abstraction borehole (as pollutant receptor). Each risk score is accompanied by an uncertainty score which provides a guide to the confidence in the data used to compile the risk assessment. The application of the methodology has highlighted a number of problems in this type of work and results of initial case studies are being used to trial alternative scoring methods and a more simplified approach to accelerate the process of pollution risk assessment.

  19. Preliminary Investigation of a Video-Based Stimulus Preference Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snyder, Katie; Higbee, Thomas S.; Dayton, Elizabeth

    2012-01-01

    Video clips may be an effective format for presenting complex stimuli in preference assessments. In this preliminary study, we evaluated the correspondence between preference hierarchies generated from preference assessments that included either toys or videos of the toys. The top-ranked item corresponded in both assessments for 5 of the 6…

  20. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  1. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  2. Cancer risk assessment of toxaphene.

    PubMed

    Buranatrevedh, Surasak

    2004-07-01

    The primary purpose is to do cancer risk assessment of toxaphene by using four steps of risk assessment proposed by the United States National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC). Four steps of risk assessment including hazard identification, dose-response relationship, exposure assessment, and risk characterization were used to evaluate cancer risk of toxaphene. Toxaphene was the most heavily used insecticide in many parts of the world before it was banned in 1982. It increased incidence of neoplasms of liver and uterus in mice and increased incidence of neoplasms of endocrine organs, thyroid, pituitary, adrenal, mammary glands, and reproductive systems in rats. From mice's and rats' study, slope factor for toxaphene is 0.8557 (mg/ kg/day)(-1). Lifetime average daily dose (LADD) of toxaphene from ambient air, surface water, soil, and fish were 1.08 x 10(-6), 5.71 x 10(-6), 3.43 x 10(-7), and 7.96 x 10(-5) mg/kg/day, respectively. Cancer risk of toxaphene for average exposure is 7.42 x 10(-5). From this study, toxaphene might have carcinogenic risk among humans.

  3. Risk assessment methodologies for biotechnology impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillett, James W.

    1986-07-01

    By combining hazard assessment of effects of a potential biotechnology product with exposure assessments based on study of the genetically engineered organism's fate, conclusions may be reached about the risk involved in release of the product to the environment. In order to make this risk assessment, criteria (including regulatory endpoints) must be established and then developed further against a data base from well-accepted tests. Other aspects requiring research and development include test evaluation, quality assurance, statistical procedures, and methods of identifying and monitoring not only the nominal organism(s) in the products, but also any contaminating material or organisms to which the genetically engineered components may be transferred in the environment. Application of microcosm technology to testing of genetically engineered organisms is expected to be important, since these systems may be used safely to understand fate and effects prior to (or in place of) testing the product in the environment. Limitations in the use of microcosms may be offset by the cost-effectiveness and incisiveness of results, as has been shown for other pollutants. Risk management for biotechnology products currently lacks an adequate background, but components of the process exist or can be developed. New resources, in terms of personnel, training, facilities, and funding, will be needed in order to apply the risk assessment paradigm used for toxic chemicals and pesticides. We will need to know:

  4. Tungsten: A Preliminary Environmental Risk Assessment

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-05-01

    Gastropod Food Source B A BUILDING STRONG® Uptake of W in Gastropod Food Source Exposed to Cabbage (251 mg/kg) Soil (547 ± 34) mg/kg soil Rates...exposure Assimilation efficiency greater Soil to Gastropod Days of exposure 0 5 10 15 20 Tu ng st en (m g/ kg ) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Cabbage to Gastropod

  5. Earthquake Risk Assessment and Risk Transfer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liechti, D.; Zbinden, A.; Rüttener, E.

    Research on risk assessment of natural catastrophes is very important for estimating its economical and social impact. The loss potentials of such disasters (e.g. earthquake and storms) for property owners, insurance and nationwide economies are driven by the hazard, the damageability (vulnerability) of buildings and infrastructures and depend on the ability to transfer these losses to different parties. In addition, the geographic distribution of the exposed values, the uncertainty of building vulnerability and the individual deductible are main factors determining the size of a loss. The deductible is the key element that steers the distribution of losses between insured and insurer. Therefore the risk analysis concentrates on deductible and vulnerability of insured buildings and maps their variations to allow efficient decisions. With consideration to stochastic event sets, the corresponding event losses can be modelled as expected loss grades of a Beta probability density function. Based on deductible and standard deviation of expected loss grades, the loss for the insured and for the insurer can be quantified. In addition, the varying deductible impact on different geographic regions can be described. This analysis has been carried out for earthquake insurance portfolios with various building types and different deductibles. Besides quantifying loss distributions between insured and insurer based on uncertainty assumptions and deductible consideration, mapping yields ideas to optimise the risk transfer process and can be used for developing risk mitigation strategies.

  6. Preliminary investigation of a video-based stimulus preference assessment.

    PubMed

    Snyder, Katie; Higbee, Thomas S; Dayton, Elizabeth

    2012-01-01

    Video clips may be an effective format for presenting complex stimuli in preference assessments. In this preliminary study, we evaluated the correspondence between preference hierarchies generated from preference assessments that included either toys or videos of the toys. The top-ranked item corresponded in both assessments for 5 of the 6 participants, and the top- and bottom-ranked items corresponded for 4 participants. The implications of these results for future research on video preference assessments are discussed.

  7. Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.

    2005-01-01

    A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of

  8. Human Health Effects, Task Force Assessment, Preliminary Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aronow, Wilbert S.; And Others

    Presented in this preliminary report is one of seven assessments conducted by a special task force of Project Clean Air, the Human Health Effects Task Force. The reports summarize assessments of the state of knowledge on various air pollution problems, particularly in California, and make tentative recommendations as to what the University of…

  9. Toxicological risk assessment. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect

    Clayson, D.B.; Krewski, D.; Munro, I.

    1985-01-01

    This book contains the following chapters: Epidemiological Methods for Assessment of Human Cancer Risk. Assessment of Human Exposure to Environmental Contaminants with Special Reference to Cancer. Influence of Nutrition, Immunologic Status, and Other Factors on Development of Cancer. Significance of Benefits in Regulatory Decision Making. Measuring Health Benefits. Food Safety Regulations. Case Study-Asbestos. Vinyl Chloride - A Cancer Case Study. An Integrated Approach to the Study of Formaldehyde Carcinogenicity in Rats and Mice. Determination of Human Risk in Regulating Polychlorinated Biphenyls Saccharin - A Bitter-Sweet Case.

  10. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    SciTech Connect

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-11-13

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  11. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  12. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  13. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  14. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  15. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  16. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  17. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  18. Collegiate Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, David S.; Janosik, Steven M.

    An instrument to help administrators assess the liability resulting from alcohol-related activities on the college campus is presented. The hazards and associated liability of these events can be reduced by developing an aggressive risk management strategy designed to inform, educate, and coordinate the actions of individuals and groups associated…

  19. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  20. Picillo Farm ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Under the direction of US Environmental Protection Agency, Region 1, a baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems located on-site and off-site/downstream of a Superfund site in Coventry, Rhode Island. Surveys of biota and ecosystems were focused in the vicinity of 26 soil, sediment, and surface water sampling locations used for the RI/FS site contamination assessment, to cross-link data on biological receptors to site-specific habitat maps. Classes of contaminants of concern (COCs), selected independently for each medium based on exceedances of ecotoxicity criteria, for which risks to one or more indicator communities and species were calculated, included VOCs, SVOCs, metals, PCBs and pesticides. Simple hazard quotients were used to estimate risks for benthic and pelagic communities of the aquatic and wetland exposure zones, using AWQC and NOAA sediment guidelines. These aquatic criteria also were applied to a site-specific exposure models for all life stages of the Green Frog (Rana clamitans). To complement the benthic invertebrate risk estimates, site-derived sediments also were used for toxicity tests of Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca. Published, species-specific and/or extrapolated toxicity effects endpoints were used in site-specific, mathematical food chain exposure assessment models for the Amedcan Woodcock (Scolopax minor), Short-tailed Shrew (Blarina brevicauda) and Mink (Mustela vison), to estimate organismal risks for a variety of foraging scenarios within one or more exposure zone. Incremental site contributions to risks from metals were inferred using local background data, whereas all risks from organic compounds were assumed to be site-derived.

  1. Preliminary assessment of valve IST effectiveness

    SciTech Connect

    Grove, E.; DiBiasio, A.; Carbonaro, J.

    1994-06-01

    A preliminary review of 1ST effectiveness for Code Class 1, 2, and 3 valves at nuclear power plants was performed. These requirements are specified by ASME Section 11, and the Operations and Maintenance Standards (OM-10). The INPO NPRDS database was used to provide failure reports for these components for 1988 to 1992. This time period coincides with the issuance of Generic Letter 89-04, which resulted in a more consistent application of the requirements by the licensees. For this time period, 8593 valve failures were identified. From the review of the NPRDS database, the primary failure causes and failure modes for motor operated (MOV), air operated (AOV), and check valves (CV) were identified. Solenoid operated valves (SOV) were not reviewed in this study. Plant testing programs were effective in identifying approximately 60% of the CV failures, 46% of the AOV failures, and 44% of the MOV failures.

  2. Pilot Implementation and Preliminary Evaluation of START:AV Assessments in Secure Juvenile Correctional Facilities.

    PubMed

    Desmarais, Sarah L; Sellers, Brian G; Viljoen, Jodi L; Cruise, Keith R; Nicholls, Tonia L; Dvoskin, Joel A

    2012-01-01

    The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV) is a new structured professional judgment guide for assessing short-term risks in adolescents. The scheme may be distinguished from other youth risk assessment and treatment planning instruments by its inclusion of 23 dynamic factors that are each rated for both vulnerability and strength. In addition, START:AV is also unique in that it focuses on multiple adverse outcomes-namely, violence, self-harm, suicide, unauthorized leave, substance abuse, self-neglect, victimization, and general offending-over the short-term (i.e., weeks to months) rather than long-term (i.e., years). This paper describes a pilot implementation and preliminary evaluation of START:AV in three secure juvenile correctional facilities in the southern United States. Specifically, we examined the descriptive characteristics and psychometric properties of START:AV assessments completed by 21 case managers on 291 adolescent offenders (250 boys and 41 girls) at the time of admission. Results provide preliminary support for the feasibility of completing START:AV assessments as part of routine practice. Findings also highlight differences in the characteristics of START:AV assessments for boys and girls and differential associations between the eight START:AV risk domains. Though results are promising, further research is needed to establish the reliability and validity of START:AV assessments completed in the field.

  3. OVERCOMING OBSTACLES TO POPULATIONS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Driven by management goals, statutory requirements and stakeholder interests, populations of wildlife and aquatic organisms often are the assessment endpoint entities (assessment populations) identified in site-specific ecological risk assessments. Yet, risks to populations are ...

  4. Probabilistic risk assessment familiarization training

    SciTech Connect

    Phillabaum, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    Philadelphia Electric Company (PECo) created a Nuclear Group Risk and Reliability Assessment Program Plan in order to focus the utilization of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in support of Limerick Generating Station and Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The continuation of a PRA program was committed by PECo to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) prior to be the issuance of an operating license for Limerick Unit 1. It is believed that increased use of PRA techniques to support activities at Limerick and Peach Bottom will enhance PECo's overall nuclear excellence. Training for familiarization with PRA is designed for attendance once by all nuclear group personnel to understand PRA and its potential effect on their jobs. The training content describes the history of PRA and how it applies to PECo's nuclear activities. Key PRA concepts serve as the foundation for the familiarization training. These key concepts are covered in all classes to facilitate an appreciation of the remaining material, which is tailored to the audience. Some of the concepts covered are comparison of regulatory philosophy to PRA techniques, fundamentals of risk/success, risk equation/risk summation, and fault trees and event trees. Building on the concepts, PRA insights and applications are then described that are tailored to the audience.

  5. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  6. Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

  7. Preliminary assessment of pump IST effectiveness

    SciTech Connect

    DiBiasio, A.; Grove, E.; Carbonaro, J.

    1994-06-01

    A preliminary review of Inservice Testing (IST) effectiveness for Code Class 1, 2, and 3 pumps at nuclear power plants was performed. IST requirements are specified by ASME Section XI, and the Operations and Maintenance Standard (OM Part 6). The INPO NPRDS database was used to provide failure reports for these components for 1988 to 1992. This time frame coincides with the issuance of Generic Letter 89-04, which resulted in a more consistent application of the requirements by the licensees. For this time period, 2585 pump failures were reported. A review of these failures indicated that the majority (71.6%) were due to external leakage, and were excluded from this study since these events typically do not affect pump operability and are not detected by the measurement of IST parameters. Of the remaining 733 events, a review was performed to identify the primary failure causes, failure modes, and method of detection. Plant testing programs, consisting of IST, surveillance testing, and special testing, detected approximately 40% of these occurrences. Others were detected through operational abnormalities, routine and incidental observations, alarms, and while performing maintenance. This paper provides a discussion of the results of the study.

  8. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  9. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  10. The OPTIONS model of sexual risk assessment for adolescents.

    PubMed

    Lusczakoski, Kathryn D; Rue, Lisa A

    2012-03-01

    Typically, clinical evaluations of adolescents' sexual risk is based on inquiring about past sexual activity, which is limited by not including an adolescent's cognitive decision making regarding their past sexual decisions. This study describes the novel OPTIONS framework for assessing adolescent sexual risk including three general categories of risk (e.g., primary, secondary, and tertiary risk), which is designed to overcome the limitation of action-based assessment of risk and improve practitioners' ability to assess the levels of sexual risk. A convenience sample of 201 older adolescents (18-19 years of age) completed an online version of the Relationship Options Survey (ROS), designed to measure the OPTIONS sexual risk assessment. Bivariate correlation among the subscales functioned in the hypothesized manner, with all correlations being statistically significant. Using the OPTIONS model, 22.4% participants were classified as high risk primary, 7.0% participants were classified as high risk secondary, and 27.4% participants were classified as high risk tertiary. The study provided preliminary evidence for OPTIONS model of sexual assessment, which provides a more tailored evaluation by including cognitive decisions regarding an adolescent's sexual actions.

  11. Religious History in the Schools: A Preliminary Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bigham, Darrel E.

    This paper is a preliminary assessment and proposed plan of action resulting from a discussion of the state of religious history in Indiana schools. A group of teachers, professors, and administrators met informally in these discussions to identify opportunities for change. The group recognized that religion has been a major force in history, and…

  12. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements. PMID:27800443

  13. La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

    2009-12-01

    Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree

  14. Analytical Chemistry Core Capability Assessment - Preliminary Report

    SciTech Connect

    Barr, Mary E.; Farish, Thomas J.

    2012-05-16

    The concept of 'core capability' can be nebulous one. Even at a fairly specific level, where core capability equals maintaining essential services, it is highly dependent upon the perspective of the requestor. Samples are submitted to analytical services because the requesters do not have the capability to conduct adequate analyses themselves. Some requests are for general chemical information in support of R and D, process control, or process improvement. Many analyses, however, are part of a product certification package and must comply with higher-level customer quality assurance requirements. So which services are essential to that customer - just those for product certification? Does the customer also (indirectly) need services that support process control and improvement? And what is the timeframe? Capability is often expressed in terms of the currently utilized procedures, and most programmatic customers can only plan a few years out, at best. But should core capability consider the long term where new technologies, aging facilities, and personnel replacements must be considered? These questions, and a multitude of others, explain why attempts to gain long-term consensus on the definition of core capability have consistently failed. This preliminary report will not try to define core capability for any specific program or set of programs. Instead, it will try to address the underlying concerns that drive the desire to determine core capability. Essentially, programmatic customers want to be able to call upon analytical chemistry services to provide all the assays they need, and they don't want to pay for analytical chemistry services they don't currently use (or use infrequently). This report will focus on explaining how the current analytical capabilities and methods evolved to serve a variety of needs with a focus on why some analytes have multiple analytical techniques, and what determines the infrastructure for these analyses. This information will be

  15. Applications of Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Burns, K.J.; Chapman, J.R.; Follen, S.M.; O'Regan, P.J. )

    1991-05-01

    This report provides a summary of potential and actual applications of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) technology and insights. Individual applications are derived from the experiences of a number of US nuclear utilities. This report identifies numerous applications of PRA techniques beyond those typically associated with PRAs. In addition, believing that the future use of PRA techniques should not be limited to those of the past, areas of plant operations, maintenance, and financial resource allocation are discussed. 9 refs., 3 tabs.

  16. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-01-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  17. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis; Volume 2, Figures [and] Volume 3, Technical Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

    1991-05-31

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history.

  18. [Risk assessment in pain therapy].

    PubMed

    Schoeffel, D; Casser, H R; Bach, M; Kress, H G; Likar, R; Locher, H; Steinleitner, W; Strohmeier, M; Brunner, H; Treede, R D; Zieglgänsberger, W; Sandkühler, J

    2008-10-01

    Analgesic therapy is not without risk. However, the risk of most analgesic interventions is minor compared to the risk of the inadequate treatment of pain and insufficient treatment may lead to chronic pain.A correct diagnosis should be the basis of any specific treatment of pain disorders. Only a diagnosis which implicates a multi-disciplinary assessment and which considers both the pathoanatomical, functional and biopsychosocial dysfunctions can lead to an adequate therapeutic intervention. Furthermore, therapeutic planning should include the personal needs of the patient and should have realistic aims.Pharmacological treatment is guided by the WHO pain ladder. The risks of the relevant substance groups must be considered. NSAIDs (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) which are included in all steps of the WHO pain ladder carry specific risks for the gastrointestinal, cardiovascular and renal systems and are contraindicated in many patients in need of analgesic therapy, e.g. in many elderly patients. Opioids which are recommended at steps 2 and 3 of the WHO pain ladder have less organ toxicity but they are still used reluctantly. Coanalgetics, especially antidepressants bear specific risks and the discussion on suicide rates under antidepressant medication is ongoing.Invasive methods such as the intrathecal application of analgesics are valuable procedures if the indication is correct and the treating physician has sufficient experience. Pain therapy is essential and the risks of the procedures are manageable. Considering the current knowledge on the mechanisms of pain sensitisation, the lack of adequate pain control can lead to chronic pain with severe consequences for the patient.

  19. Stochastic risk assessment of sites contaminated by hazardous wastes

    SciTech Connect

    Batchelor, B.; Araganth, V.; Valdes, J.

    1998-04-01

    Stochastic risk assessment models offer the potential for being more objective by explicitly considering variability. Such a model has been developed for a site contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) by representing the parameters used in the risk assessment as probability distribution functions (pdf) rather than single values. The pdf for total risk calculated by the model is approximately lognormal, although the pdf of parameters in the model take on a variety of forms. A first-order approximation to the model provides good estimates for the high end of the distribution, which is of concern when conservative risk assessments are desirable. The first-order approximation provides good estimates even when the level of variation of the parameters is increased well above levels that are normally expected. A procedure was developed to apply the stochastic risk assessment model in a series of calculations to determine preliminary remediation goals for the site. In addition, a simplified technique was developed to calculate preliminary remediation goals using only results from simulating risk with initial site conditions.

  20. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E; Dinu, Irina

    2015-08-14

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario-Tainted blood transfusion infection risk-That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.

  1. Preliminary results of Aruba wind resource assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Guda, M.H.

    1996-12-31

    As part of a project to assess the possibilities for wind energy utilitization in the Dutch Antilles islands, windspeed and -direction data were collected in Aruba for two years, from March 1992 to February 1994. Five sites that were estimated to be representative for the islands` wind regimes, were monitored during this period: two sites on the windward coast, one east and one west; two inland sites, again one east and one west, and one site topping the cliffs overlooking the eastern windward coast. Additionally, twenty years worth of data were analyzed for the reference site at the airport, which is in the middle part of the island, on the leeward coast. Correlation calculations between these data and the data for the project sites were performed, in order to establish a methodology for estimating the long-term behavior of the wind regimes at these sites. 8 figs., 3 tabs.

  2. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed Central

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E.; Dinu, Irina

    2015-01-01

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario—Tainted blood transfusion infection risk—That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making. PMID:26287224

  3. Risk assessment for neurobehavioral toxicity

    SciTech Connect

    McMillan, D.E.

    1987-12-01

    A study of the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC) found neurobehavioral toxicity to be one of the areas where almost no data are available for the assessment of toxicity. Using the NAS/NRC report and a data base from the American Conference of Government Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH), an estimate of the number of neurobehavioral toxins in commercial chemicals can be made. Although the assumption made in making such a calculation may be invalid, the exercise suggests that the number of neurobehavioral toxins may be quite large. There does seem to be general agreement as to what type of neurobehavioral test procedures are appropriate for regulatory purposes. Select committees have consistently recommended the use of test batteries that include schedule-controlled behavior, motor activity, and neuropathological examination following in vivo perfusion, for regulatory purposes. Alkyltin data developed from such a battery were applied to the risk assessment model employed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in their calculations of acceptable daily intake. Using this test battery and the EPA risk assessment model, the acceptable daily intake calculated is of the same order of magnitude as the total limit values established by the ACGIH. A number of special issues in neurobehavioral toxicity also are discussed, including the definition of adverse neurobehavioral toxic effect, species extrapolation, correlation of behavior and neuropathology, alternative methods, and quality of life issues.

  4. 78 FR 14540 - Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Volatilization Assessment; Extension of Comment Period

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-03-06

    ... AGENCY Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Volatilization Assessment; Extension of Comment.... SUMMARY: EPA issued a notice in the Federal Register issue of February 6, 2013, concerning Chlorpyrifos... comment of its preliminary volatilization assessment for the registration review of chlorpyrifos....

  5. Risk Assessment-- A Science in Controversy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ravetz, J. R.

    1982-01-01

    Discusses principle themes/issues of risk assessment, using examples from the "nuclear debate." Indicates that while an objective scientific core to decisions on risks exists, this is conditioned in its interpretation by inexactness, uncertainty, and value-commitments. Considers risk assessment elements, risk quantification in real…

  6. Preliminary Assessment of Overweight Mainline Vehicles

    SciTech Connect

    Siekmann, Adam; Capps, Gary J; Lascurain, Mary Beth

    2011-11-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration requested information regarding overweight and oversized vehicle traffic entering inspection stations (ISs) in order to develop strategies for future research efforts and possibly help guide regulatory issues involving overweight commercial motor vehicles (CMVs). For a period of one month, inspection stations in Knox County and Greene County, Tennessee, recorded overweight and oversized vehicles that entered these ISs. During this period, 435 CMVs were recorded using an electronic form filled out by enforcement personnel at the IS. Of the 435 CMVs recorded, 381 had weight information documented with them. The majority (52.2%) of the vehicles recorded were five-axle combination vehicles, and 50.6% of all the vehicles were permitted to operate above the legal weight limit in Tennessee, which is 80,000 lb for vehicles with five or more axles. Only 16.8% of the CMVs recorded were overweight gross (11.5% of permitted vehicles) and 54.1% were overweight on an axle group. The low percentage of overweight gross CMVs was because only 45 of the vehicles over 80,000 lb. were not permitted. On average, axles that were overweight were 2,000 lb. over the legal limit for an axle or group of axles. Of the vehicles recorded, 172 vehicles were given a North American Standard (NAS) inspection during the assessment. Of those, 69% of the inspections were driver-only inspections (Level III) and only 25% of the inspections had a vehicle component (such as a Level I or Level II). The remaining 6% of inspections did not have valid Aspen numbers; the type of was inspection unknown. Data collected on the types of trailers of each vehicle showed that about half of the recorded CMVs could realistically be given a Level I (full vehicle and driver) inspection; this estimate was solely based on trailer type. Enforcement personnel at ISs without an inspection pit have difficulty fully inspecting certain vehicles due to low clearance below the trailer

  7. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 1

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication) are discussed. PMID:27800435

  8. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    PubMed

    Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Mach, Megan E; Martone, Rebecca G; Singh, Gerald G; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M A

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  9. Hellsgate Winter Range : Wildlife Mitigation Project. Preliminary Environmental Assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1995-01-01

    The Bonneville Power Administration proposes funding the Hellsgate Winter Range Wildlife Mitigation Project in cooperation with the Colville Convederated Tribes and Bureau of Indian Affairs. This Preliminary Environmental Assessment examines the potential environmental effects of acquiring and managing property for wildlife and wildlife habitat within a large project area. The Propose action is intended to meet the need for mitigation of wildlife and wild life habitat that was adversely affected by the construction of Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph Dams and their reservoirs.

  10. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    PubMed Central

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  11. Meteoroid Risk Assessment of Lunar Habitat Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Evans, Steven W.; Stallworth, Roderick; Robinson, Jennifer; Stellingwerf, Robert; Engler, Erich

    2006-01-01

    Preliminary analyses have been performed of meteoroid impacts on lunar surface structures built with elements made from in situ materials. The SPHC hydrodynamic code was used to simulate impacts, and was validated against hypervelocity impact test results. Impact risk will affect necessary wall thicknesses, depth of burial, and placement of lunar base structures.

  12. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  13. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    PubMed

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  14. Assessing risks to ecosystem quality

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1995-12-31

    Ecosystems are not organisms. Because ecosystems do not reproduce, grow old or sick, and die, the term ecosystem health is somewhat misleading and perhaps should not be used. A more useful concept is ``ecosystem quality,`` which denotes a set of desirable ecosystem characteristics defined in terms of species composition, productivity, size/condition of specific populations, or other measurable properties. The desired quality of an ecosystem may be pristine, as in a nature preserve, or highly altered by man, as in a managed forest or navigational waterway. ``Sustainable development`` implies that human activities that influence ecosystem quality should be managed so that high-quality ecosystems are maintained for future generations. In sustainability-based environmental management, the focus is on maintaining or improving ecosystem quality, not on restricting discharges or requiring particular waste treatment technologies. This approach requires management of chemical impacts to be integrated with management of other sources of stress such as erosion, eutrophication, and direct human exploitation. Environmental scientists must (1) work with decision makers and the public to define ecosystem quality goals, (2) develop corresponding measures of ecosystem quality, (3) diagnose causes for departures from desired states, and (4) recommend appropriate restoration actions, if necessary. Environmental toxicology and chemical risk assessment are necessary for implementing the above framework, but they are clearly not sufficient. This paper reviews the state-of-the science relevant to sustaining the quality of aquatic ecosystems. Using the specific example of a reservoir in eastern Tennessee, the paper attempts to define roles for ecotoxicology and risk assessment in each step of the management process.

  15. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  16. Environmental risk assessment of paroxetine.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Virginia L; Constable, David J C; Hannah, Robert E

    2004-06-15

    watershed-based environmental risk assessment model, PhATE, to predict environmental concentrations (PECs). Comparison of the calculated PECs with the PNEC allows an assessment of potential environmental risk. Within the 1-99% of stream segments in the PhATE model, PEC values ranged from 0.003 to 100 ng/L. The risk assessment PEC/PNEC ratios ranged from approximately 3 x 10(-8) to approximately 3 x 10(-3), indicating a wide margin of safety, since a PEC/PNEC ratio <1 is generally considered to represent a low risk to the environment. In addition, Microtox studies carried out on PM biodegradation byproducts indicated no detectable residual toxicity. Any compounds in the environment as a result of the biodegradation of PM should be innocuous polar byproducts that should not exert any toxic effects.

  17. Risk modelling for vaccination: a risk assessment perspective.

    PubMed

    Wooldridge, M

    2007-01-01

    Any risk assessment involves a number of steps. First, the risk manager, in close liaison with the risk assessor, should identify the question of interest. Then, the hazards associated with each risk question should be identified. Only then can the risks themselves be assessed. Several questions may reasonably be asked about the risk associated with avian influenza vaccines and their use. Some apply to any vaccine, while others are specific to avian influenza. Risks may occur during manufacture and during use. Some concern the vaccines themselves, while others address the effect of failure on disease control. The hazards associated with each risk question are then identified. These may be technical errors in design, development or production, such as contamination or failure to inactivate appropriately. They may relate to the biological properties of the pathogens themselves displayed during manufacture or use, for example, reversion to virulence, shedding or not being the right strain for the subsequent challenge. Following a consideration of risks and hazards, the information needed and an outline of the steps necessary to assess the risk is summarized, for an illustrative risk question using, as an example, the risks associated with the use of vaccines in the field. A brief consideration of the differences between qualitative and quantitative risk assessments is also included, and the potential effects of uncertainty and variability on the results are discussed.

  18. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  19. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    PubMed

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  20. A Quantitative Software Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Alice

    2002-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews a risk assessment model as applied to software development. the presentation uses graphs to demonstrate basic concepts of software reliability. It also discusses the application to the risk model to the software development life cycle.

  1. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Cancer.gov

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  2. Revised Methods for Worker Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA is updating and changing the way it approaches pesticide risk assessments. This new approach will result in more comprehensive and consistent evaluation of potential risks of food use pesticides, non-food use pesticides, and occupational exposures.

  3. Assessing Human Health Risk from Pesticides

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  4. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT: WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997 scien...

  5. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment (ERA) and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997...

  6. Preliminary development of a stochastic model to analyze risk associated with the transport of hazardous substances. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Tumeo, M.A.

    1993-02-01

    Because of the recognized risks associated with the transport of hazardous substances (both useable materials and wastes), federal, state, and local agencies are under growing pressure to minimize the risk of spills and accidental releases of dangerous substances and in the event of a spill event, to protect the public from adverse effects. To meet this need, a preliminary computer model is presented for use in incident management in urban and rural traffic operations. The model is in the Macintosh Hypercard format and allows the user to assess the risks associated with transport of hazardous substances, including the potential of an accidental release and risks to the public and the environment should a release occur. As part of the long-term model development strategy, the preliminary model was tested at a workshop of Alaska Department of Transportation personnel and researchers from the University of Alaska Fairbanks Transportation Research Center. During the workshop, participants were asked to critique the model structure, user interface, and utility. Specific suggestions were solicited on how the model could be strengthened and improved. An overall rating sheet was filled out by each participant to provide a quasi-quantitative assessment of the model as a management tool. The preliminary model will serve as the core for the development and refinement of a more sophisticated risk analysis model.

  7. Issues in risk assessment. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    The volume is the first in a series to be prepared by the Committee on Risk Assessment Methodology (CRAM) in the National Research Council's Board on Enviromental Studies and Toxicology. Three issues related to risk assessment are addressed here: use of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in animal bioassays for carcinogenicity, the two-state model of carcinogenesis, and a paradigm for ecologic risk assessment.

  8. AVLIS Production Plant Preliminary Quality Assurance Plan and Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1984-11-15

    This preliminary Quality Assurance Plan and Assessment establishes the Quality Assurance requirements for the AVLIS Production Plant Project. The Quality Assurance Plan defines the management approach, organization, interfaces, and controls that will be used in order to provide adequate confidence that the AVLIS Production Plant design, procurement, construction, fabrication, installation, start-up, and operation are accomplished within established goals and objectives. The Quality Assurance Program defined in this document includes a system for assessing those elements of the project whose failure would have a significant impact on safety, environment, schedule, cost, or overall plant objectives. As elements of the project are assessed, classifications are provided to establish and assure that special actions are defined which will eliminate or reduce the probability of occurrence or control the consequences of failure. 8 figures, 18 tables.

  9. Preliminary assessment of fleets covered by the Energy Policy Act

    SciTech Connect

    Hu, P.S.; Davis, S.C.; Wang, M.Q.

    1994-12-31

    To facilitate the goal of decreasing oil imports by 10 percent by the year 2000 and 30 percent by 2010, two sections of the Energy Policy Act encourage and mandate alternative fuel vehicles in the acquisition of fleet vehicles. The first step in estimating the contribution of these mandates toward meeting the aforementioned goal entails identifying affected fleets. This paper presents a preliminary assessment of potential vehicle fleet coverage. Only a limited number of companies in the methanol, ethanol, and hydrogen industries are likely to quality for this mandate. Whereas, many of the oil producers, petroleum refiners, and electricity companies are likely to be regulated.

  10. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  11. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rahm-Crites, L.

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  12. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  13. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  14. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  15. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brekke, Levi D.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Anderson, Jamie D.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Townsley, Edwin S.; Harrison, Alan; Pruitt, Tom

    2009-04-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios.

  16. Ecological risk assessment framework -- the NAS perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1993-06-01

    A Workshop on Ecological Risk Assessment was held on February 26--March 1, 1991, at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia. In addition to presentation and discussion of the case study papers, the workshop included breakout sessions to discuss conceptual and technical aspects of ecological risk assessment. A general consensus emerged that an ecological version of the 1983 framework is desirable and feasible. The committee concluded that the 1983 human health framework could be expanded to accomodate both human health and ecological risk assessment. For general applicability to ecological assessments, the 1983 scheme requires augmentation to address some of the interfaces between science and management, primarily because of the need to focus on appropriate questions relevant to applicable environmental law and policy under different circumstances. Specifically, the scheme needs modification to address (1) the influence of legal and regulatory considerations on the initial stages of ecological risk assessment and (2) the importance of characterizing ecological risks in terms that are intelligible to risk managers. The committee`s opinion is that these augmentations are as important for human health risk assessment as they are for ecological risk assessment. This paper briefly describes the framework recommended by the Committee and compares it to EPA`s recently-published Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment.

  17. Blood Pressure Variability: Can Nonlinear Dynamics Enhance Risk Assessment During Cardiovascular Surgery? A Feasibility Study

    PubMed Central

    Subramaniam, Balachundhar; Khabbaz, Kamal R.; Heldt, Thomas; Lerner, Adam B.; Mittleman, Murray A.; Davis, Roger B.; Goldberger, Ary L.; Costa, Madalena D.

    2014-01-01

    Brief Summary We propose that complex (nonlinear) fluctuations of hemodynamic variables (including systemic blood pressure parameters) during cardiovascular surgery contain information relevant to risk assessment and intraoperative management. Preliminary analysis of a pilot study supports the feasibility and potential merits of performing a larger, prospective study to assess the clinical utility of such new dynamical measures and to evaluate their potential role in enhancing contemporary approaches to risk assessment of major adverse events. PMID:24508020

  18. Summary Report: Risk Assessment Forum Technical Workshop on Population-level Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    2008 technical workshop regarding development of additional guidelines or best practices for planning, implementing and interpreting ecological risk assessments that involve population-level assessment endpoints.

  19. Site-Specific Rules for Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucker, William; And Others

    1994-01-01

    This article examines the development of regulatory guidance upon which the technology of risk assessment has matured into a decision-making method of choice. It examines in particular the role of site-specific risk assessment at Superfund sites. (LZ)

  20. Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  1. LINES OF EVIDENCE IN WILDLIFE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological risk assessment has evolved rapidly from a qualitative set of observations to a quantitative science during the past decade. Methods for assessing risk to wildlife, however, remain largely theoretical as the empirical data required for accurate estimates of exposure o...

  2. Risk Assessment: An Examination of Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince-Embury, Sandra

    A meta-analysis of theoretical debates concerned with the assessment of risk associated with the use of nuclear power as an energy source is presented in this paper. Based on a central premise that risk assessment has a direct impact on national policy decisions and is associated with different perspectives reflective of different social sectors,…

  3. Risk Assess: What's Safe? What's Not? Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffy, Roslyn

    2010-01-01

    "Risk assess!" The words sound like a verbal stop sign. "Stop! Think! Consider!" In this article, the author presents an example of risk assessing that came from a nature education conference in Crieff, Scotland, that she attended as part of an international group of educators seeking ways to increase children's experiences…

  4. Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

    EPA Science Inventory

    Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

  5. Russian risk assessment methods and approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Dvorack, M.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Smith, R.E.

    1996-07-01

    One of the benefits resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union is the increased dialogue currently taking place between American and Russian nuclear weapons scientists in various technical arenas. One of these arenas currently being investigated involves collaborative studies which illustrate how risk assessment is perceived and utilized in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The collaborative studies indicate that, while similarities exist with respect to some methodologies, the assumptions and approaches in performing risk assessments were, and still are, somewhat different in the FSU as opposed to that in the US. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the present knowledge of risk assessment methodologies and philosophies within the two largest nuclear weapons laboratories of the Former Soviet Union, Arzamas-16 and Chelyabinsk-70. Furthermore, This paper will address the relative progress of new risk assessment methodologies, such as Fuzzy Logic, within the framework of current risk assessment methods at these two institutes.

  6. Production Risk Assessing Methodology (PRAM).

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-05-01

    the price up five-fold which translates to $30.M. On the optimistic side,this same commodity market could bring the price down to one half of the price...57 PWMIW- A recognitinn that past product ion probl ems represent f ut ri , producto ; risk areas suggested an empirically developed risk structure

  7. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  8. Cardiovascular risk assessment: a global perspective.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Dong; Liu, Jing; Xie, Wuxiang; Qi, Yue

    2015-05-01

    An important strategy in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the early identification of high-risk individuals. Effective implementation of a strategy to identify these individuals in a clinical setting is reliant on the availability of appropriate CVD risk-assessment models and guideline recommendations. Several well-known models for CVD risk assessment have been developed and utilized in the USA and Europe, but might not be suitable for use in other regions or countries. Very few reports have discussed the development of risk-assessment models and recommendations from a global perspective. In this Review, we discuss why risk-assessment methods developed from studies in one geographical region or ethnic population might not be suitable for other regions or populations, and examine the availability and characteristics of predictive models in areas beyond the USA or Europe. In addition, we compare the differences in risk-assessment recommendations outlined in CVD clinical guidelines from developed and developing countries, and consider their potential effect on clinical practice. This overview of cardiovascular risk assessment from a global perspective can potentially guide low-to-middle-income countries in the development or validation of their own CVD risk-assessment models, and the formulation of recommendations in their own clinical guidelines according to local requirements.

  9. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  10. Risk Assessment: Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners Refined Human Health Risk Characterization

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This November 2005 memo and appendices describe the methods by which EPA conducted its refined risk assessment of the Major Source and Area Source facilities within the perchloroethylene (perc) dry cleaners source category.

  11. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  12. A Preliminary Assessment of LANDSAT-4 Thematic Mapper Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodenough, D. G.; Fleming, E. A.; Dickinson, K.

    1984-01-01

    The results of a preliminary assessment of both raw and NASA processed Thematic Mapper (TM) data are discussed. Geometric correction of NASA processed TM data was carried out. Correction was possible to within 3 pixels in the along track direction and 2 pixels in the across track direction. A preliminary evaluation of TM imagery provided by the NASA LANDSAT Assessmemt System for geometric accuracy and map information content was performed on samples of imagery. The initial indications were that bands 3, 5 and 7 contain the most useful cartographic information. The resolution of rural and urban detail as well as the fit to plotted map detail was found to be improved over LANDSAT MSS, and such images may provide adequate revision information for 1:250,000 maps in areas where it is not currently profitable to use LANDSAT MSS. The relative gains and offsets for each detector in each band of raw data were calculated in a study of the radiometric correction of TM data. This was done for different subscenes as well as a full scene and the variation of the results with direction of scan and position of subscene were studied.

  13. Preliminary Associations Between Childhood Neglect, MIF, and Cortisol: Potential Pathways to Long-Term Disease Risk

    PubMed Central

    Bick, Johanna; Nguyen, Victoria; Leng, Lin; Piecychna, Marta; Crowley, Michael J.; Bucala, Richard; Mayes, Linda C.; Grigorenko, Elena L.

    2015-01-01

    The study examined Hypothalamus Pituitary Adrenal (HPA) axis and inflammatory signaling in 206 youth with histories of prenatal drug exposure and self reported histories of maltreatment. Youth with histories of severe neglect showed elevated levels of cortisol, the end product of the HPA axis, in comparison to youth with lower or minimal levels of neglect. Histories of severe neglect also were associated with increased levels of Macrophage Migration Inhibitory Factor (MIF), a cytokine known to be intricately involved in HPA axis regulation. Salivary MIF levels also were positively associated with youth age and prenatal drug exposure. These MIF and cortisol alterations may signal pathophysiological disruptions in the neuro endocrine and immune systems, which may lead to trajectories of increased disease risk among vulnerable youth. Our findings also provide preliminary support for the validity and reliability of a noninvasive salivary assessment of MIF. PMID:25380347

  14. Guidelines for Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These Guidelines set forth principles and procedures to guide EPA scientists in evaluating environmental contaminants that may pose neurotoxic risks, and inform Agency decision makers and the public about these procedures.

  15. Risk Assessment for Tooth Wear.

    PubMed

    Kontaxopoulou, Isavella; Alam, Sonia

    2015-08-01

    Tooth wear has an increasing prevalence in the UK population. The aetiology is commonly multifactorial, and the aetiopathology is through a combination of erosion, attrition, abrasion and abfraction. Erosion is associated with intrinsic or extrinsic acids, and therefore subjects with reflux disease and eating disorders are at increased risk. Fruit juice, fruits and carbonated drink consumption, frequency of consumption and specific habits are also risk factors. Attrition is more prevalent in bruxists. Other habits need to be considered when defining the risk of tooth wear. Abrasion is usually associated with toothbrushing and toothpastes, especially in an already acidic environment. Patients with extensive lesions that affect dentin may be at higher risk, as well as those presenting with unstained lesions. Monitoring of the progress of tooth wear is recommended to identify those with active tooth wear. Indices for tooth wear are a helpful aid.

  16. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    SciTech Connect

    Barlow, Susan

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  17. Prospective actuarial risk assessment: a comparison of five risk assessment instruments in different sexual offender subtypes.

    PubMed

    Rettenberger, Martin; Matthes, Anna; Boer, Douglas P; Eher, Reinhard

    2010-04-01

    This study examines the predictive validity of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders: Static-99, Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, Sexual Violence Risk-20, and Psychopathy Checklist-Revised in a prospective research design. Although risk assessment is part of a regime leading to various efforts to reduce risk by treatment and aftercare, all instruments show good predictive validity. However, depending on the instrument, recidivism category, and subgroup, the predictive accuracy varies markedly. Furthermore, the authors fail to demonstrate predictive validity for sexual violent reoffences-for the whole sample and for all subgroups. The results, nevertheless, support the utility and predictive validity of actuarial risk assessment complementary to treatment efforts to reduce risk. On the other hand, forensic practitioners have to be aware of the limitations of actuarial risk assessment methods, in particular as regards to variable predictive accuracy for different sexual offender subgroups and reoffence categories.

  18. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  19. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  20. Enhancing the Ecological Risk Assessment Process

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, Virginia H

    2008-01-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest (1) thorough peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and (2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it

  1. Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Graber, Robert R.

    2010-01-01

    A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

  2. Vehicle emission unit risk factors for transportation risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Biwer, B.M.; Butler, J.P.

    1999-12-01

    When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often by as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per=kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessment for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

  3. Sonographic evaluation of pediatric localized scleroderma: preliminary disease assessment measures

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Our earlier work in the ultrasonograpy of localized scleroderma (LS) suggests that altered levels of echogenicity and vascularity can be associated with disease activity. Utrasound is clinically benign and readily available, but can be limited by operator dependence. We present our efforts to standardize image acquisition and interpretation of pediatric LS to better evaluate the correlation between specific sonographic findings and disease activity. Methods Several meetings have been held among our multi-center group (LOCUS) to work towards standardizing sonographic technique and image interpretation. Demonstration and experience in image acquisition were conducted at workshop meetings. Following meetings in 2007, an ultrasound measure was developed to standardize evaluation of differences in echogenicity and vascularity. Based upon our initial observations, we have labeled this an ultrasound disease activity measure. This preliminary measure was subsequently evaluated on over 180 scans of pediatric LS lesions. This review suggested that scoring levels should be expanded to better capture the range of observed differences. The revised levels and their definitions were formulated at a February 2009 workshop meeting. We have also developed assessments for scoring changes in tissue thickness and lesion size to better determine if these parameters aid evaluation of disease state. Results We have standardized our protocol for acquiring ultrasound images of pediatric LS lesions. A wide range of sonographic differences has been seen in the dermis, hypodermis, and deep tissue layers of active lesions. Preliminary ultrasound assessments have been generated. The disease activity measure scores for altered levels of echogenicity and vascularity in the lesion, and other assessments score for differences in lesion tissue layer thickness and changes in lesion size. Conclusions We describe the range of sonographic differences found in pediatric LS, and present our

  4. Development of a preliminary framework for informing the risk analysis and risk management of nanoparticles.

    PubMed

    Morgan, Kara

    2005-12-01

    Decisions are often made even when there is uncertainty about the possible outcomes. However, methods for making decisions with uncertainty in the problem framework are scarce. Presently, safety assessment for a product containing engineered nano-scale particles is a very poorly structured problem. Many fields of study may inform the safety assessment of such particles (e.g., ultrafines, aerosols, debris from medical devices), but engineered nano-scale particles may present such unique properties that extrapolating from other types of studies may introduce, and not resolve, uncertainty. Some screening-level health effects studies conducted specifically on engineered nano-scale materials have been published and many more are underway. However, it is clear that the extent of research needed to fully and confidently understand the potential for health or environmental risk from engineered nano-scale particles may take years or even decades to complete. In spite of the great uncertainty, there is existing research and experience among researchers that can help to provide a taxonomy of particle properties, perhaps indicating a relative likelihood of risk, in order to prioritize nanoparticle risk research. To help structure this problem, a framework was developed from expert interviews of nanotechnology researchers. The analysis organizes the information as a system based on the risk assessment framework, in order to support the decision about safety. In the long term, this framework is designed to incorporate research results as they are generated, and therefore serve as a tool for estimating the potential for human health and environmental risk.

  5. Assessing Risk in Graphically Presented Financial Series.

    PubMed

    Sobolev, Daphne; Harvey, Nigel

    2016-12-01

    It has been argued that traders use their natural sensitivity to the fractal properties of price graphs to assess risk and that they are better able to do this when given price change as well as price level information. This approach implies that risk assessments should be higher when the Hurst exponents are lower, that this relationship should be stronger in the presence of price change information and that risk assessment should depend more strongly on the Hurst exponent than on the standard deviation of the series. Participants in Experiment 1 decided which of two assets was riskier by inspecting graphs of their price series. Graphs with lower Hurst exponents were selected only by those who were less emotionally stable and hence more sensitive to risk. However, when both price series and price change series were presented, the assets with lower Hurst exponents were selected by all participants. In a second experiment, participants were given both price level and price change series for a number of assets and rated the risk of trading in each one. Ratings depended more strongly on Hurst exponents than on other measures of volatility. They also depended on indicators of potential loss. Human risk assessment deviates from the way that risk is measured in modern finance theory: it requires integration of information relevant to both uncertainty and loss aversion, thereby imposing high attentional demands on traders. These demands may impair risk assessment but they can be eased by adding displays of price change information.

  6. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    PubMed

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

  7. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Wendland, W.G. )

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance.

  8. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-12-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  9. USE OF TOXICOGENOMICS DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The goal of this project is to address the question, “Can existing toxicogenomics (TG) data improve Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) chemical health or risk assessments?” Although genomics data promises to impact multiple areas of science, medicine, law, and policy, there are only a few areas where genomics data currently has application (e.g., biomarkers of disease). As the technology continues to advance, EPA will need to prepare for genomics data availability and submission by: 1) identifying areas of risk assessment where such data may be particularly useful; 2) developing acceptance criteria for inclusion of toxicogenomics data in risk assessment; and 3) developing approaches for the use of toxicogenomics in risk assessment. These needs will likely require an iterative and collaborative research process between risk assessors and scientists (inside and outside the Agency). At the NCEA sponsored Genomics and Risk Assessment Colloquium in 2003, one of the recommendations was to conduct case studies that could provide a practical attempt to incorporate currently available toxicogenomics data that would illuminate issues and the methods development. This project is responds to this recommendation. To address the question of whether TG data can improve health risk assessments, a case study will be performed in which TG data for one chemical will be incorporated qualitatively within the hazard characterization step of a recent or ongoing EPA chemical he

  10. Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment (NAS Final ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead. Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. People are exposed to a variety of chemicals throughout their daily lives. To protect public health, regulators use risk assessments to examine the effects of chemical exposures. This book provides guidance for assessing the risk of phthalates, chemicals found in many consumer products that have been shown to affect the development of the male reproductive system of laboratory animals. Because people are exposed to multiple phthalates and other chemicals that affect male reproductive development, a cumulative risk assessment should be conducted that evaluates the combined effects of exposure to all these chemicals. The book suggests an approach for cumulative risk assessment that can serve as a model for evaluating the health risks of other types of chemicals.

  11. ASSESSING WATERBORNE RISKS: AN INTRODUCTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Information in this article can help readers evaluate the results of epidemiologic studies of

    waterborne disease risks. It is important that readers understand the various epidemiologic study

    designs, their strengths and limitations, and potential biases. Terminolog...

  12. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

  13. Estimation of coronary risk factors in British schoolchildren: a preliminary report.

    PubMed Central

    Armstrong, N; Balding, J; Gentle, P; Kirby, B

    1990-01-01

    Surveys from several countries have identified the presence of risk factors known to be associated with coronary heart disease in children. Data on the distribution of coronary risk factor variables in British children are scarce. This study was therefore designed to test the feasibility of collecting coronary risk factor data from British children and to conduct a preliminary examination of the problem. One hundred and seven children (mean age 12.8 yr) had their height, weight, triceps skinfold and blood pressure checked. Blood samples for cholesterol and HDL-cholesterol analysis were obtained from 93 children. Peak VO2 was determined on 48 children, 76 children had their daily activity monitored and 59 children's stage of sexual maturity was assessed. The boys' peak VO2 was significantly higher than the girls, whether expressed in l.min-1 (p less than 0.05) or ml.kg.-1min-1 (p less than 0.01). No other significant differences (p greater than 0.05) between the sexes were detected. The results indicate that children have relatively high serum cholesterol levels (boys 4.58 +/- 0.79; girls 4.72 +/- 0.80 mmol.l-1). The willingness and enthusiasm of the children, parents and schools to take part in the study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of a large scale study being successfully pursued in the United Kingdom. Images Figure 1 PMID:2350671

  14. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  15. Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment of flood risk assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.

    2009-12-01

    Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the

  16. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  17. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  18. How We Assess Risks to Pollinators

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has a new risk assessment framework for bees as part of its regulatory decision-making process for all pesticides, which relies on a tiered process, focuses on major routes of exposure, and distinguishes different types of pesticide treatment.

  19. TOXICOLOGICAL BASIS FOR DRINKING WATER RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is charged with protecting human health and the environment. Environmental protection decisions are often guided by risk assessments that are used to develop regulatory policy and other related guidance. Historically, in environmen...

  20. Guidelines for Reproductive Toxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These guidelines discuss the scientific basis for concern about exposure to agents that cause reproductive toxicity and describe the principles and procedures to be followed in conducting risk assessments for reproductive toxicity.

  1. Framework for metals risk assessment [ Journal Article

    EPA Science Inventory

    This is a science-based document that describes basic principles that address the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  2. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  3. USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
    John C. Rockett
    Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

  4. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Peplinski, William John; Mitchell, Roger; Binning, David; Meszaros, Jenny

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  5. Risk Assessment and Alternatives Assessment: Comparing Two Methodologies

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The selection and use of chemicals and materials with less hazardous profiles reflects a paradigm shift from reliance on risk minimization through exposure controls to hazard avoidance. This article introduces risk assessment and alternatives assessment frameworks in order to clarify a misconception that alternatives assessment is a less effective tool to guide decision making, discusses factors promoting the use of each framework, and also identifies how and when application of each framework is most effective. As part of an assessor's decision process to select one framework over the other, it is critical to recognize that each framework is intended to perform different functions. Although the two frameworks share a number of similarities (such as identifying hazards and assessing exposure), an alternatives assessment provides a more realistic framework with which to select environmentally preferable chemicals because of its primary reliance on assessing hazards and secondary reliance on exposure assessment. Relevant to other life cycle impacts, the hazard of a chemical is inherent, and although it may be possible to minimize exposure (and subsequently reduce risk), it is challenging to assess such exposures through a chemical's life cycle. Through increased use of alternatives assessments at the initial stage of material or product design, there will be less reliance on post facto risk‐based assessment techniques because the potential for harm is significantly reduced, if not avoided, negating the need for assessing risk in the first place. PMID:26694655

  6. [Risk assessment in upper limb overload].

    PubMed

    Martinelli, R; Casilli, A; Fanelli, C; Pizzuti, S; Tarquini, M; Tobia, L; Paoletti, A

    2007-01-01

    One of the most important factors of the work-related musculoskeletal disorders of the upper extremities (WMSDs) is the biomechanical overload. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the possibility to predict the upper limb repetitive stress, according to risk assessment procedures. In order to this aim, we gathered clinical-anamnestic data and risk assessment considerations of a cohort of workers in a car industry.

  7. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    PubMed Central

    Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-01-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  8. Risk Assessment in Child Sexual Abuse Cases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levenson, Jill S.; Morin, John W.

    2006-01-01

    Despite continuing improvements in risk assessment for child protective services (CPS) and movement toward actuarial prediction of child maltreatment, current models have not adequately addressed child sexual abuse. Sexual abuse cases present unique and ambiguous indicators to the investigating professional, and risk factors differ from those…

  9. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  10. FRAMEWORK FOR INORGANIC METALS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA has prepared a framework to guide risk assessors in assessing human and ecological risks of inorganic metals. Metals and metal compounds have properties not generally encountered with organic chemicals. For example, metals are neither created nor destroyed by biological a...

  11. Risk assessment in Finland: theory and practice.

    PubMed

    Anttonen, Hannu; Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-09-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  12. Cognitive assessment of children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia: Preliminary findings

    PubMed Central

    Abraham, Anna; Appaji, L.

    2009-01-01

    Aim: The objective of this study was to assess the cognitive functions of Indian children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), periodically after initiation of treatment since prospective longitudinal research in this area on the Indian population has not been adequately documented. Unlike many western studies that have targeted survivors of ALL, we aimed to bring out the cognitive outcome after initiation of treatment. Materials and Methods: The cognitive functions of 19 patients diagnosed to have ALL were assessed using standardized tests after induction chemotherapy, and periodically thereafter following the second course of treatment comprising central nervous system-directed radiotherapy, and chemotherapy using intrathecal methotrexate. Results: The study found a statistically significant decline in the intelligence quotient and a deficit in the cognitive function of analytical reasoning. Conclusion: This preliminary study supports findings of an earlier Indian study and many studies conducted in the west. Since the life expectancy of these children has increased and most of them have long-term survival, and even cure, we suggest that identifying and managing children with cognitive difficulties are important in the rehabilitation of these children. PMID:20668601

  13. Preliminary assessment of radon potential of the Pacific coast states

    SciTech Connect

    Otton, J.K. )

    1993-04-01

    The US Geological Survey has recently released preliminary assessments of the radon potential in Washington, Oregon, and California. These assessments, funded by the Environmental Protection Agency, are based on geology, soils, aeroradiometric data, indoor radon data, and housing characteristics. Coastal mountain areas with low-uranium basaltic rocks and high soil moisture, and drier inland areas of low-uranium basaltic rocks in the northern part of the three-stage area have low round potential (<10 percent of homes with >4 pCi/L). Areas with highly permeable, uraniferous glacial outwash deposits in central and northeastern Washington; local areas with uraniferous marine shales in southern and south-central California; areas of granites, acidic volcanic rocks and alluvium derived from then in southeastern Oregon and central California; and steep soils developed on volcanic rocks in the Columbia River Gorge all have moderate (10-25 percent of homes with >4 pCi/L) radon potential. Extreme levels of indoor radon are possible in the northern Spokane, Wash. suburbs where homes may be sited on uranium occurrences. the radon potential of Mojave-Desert areas with high-uranium soils and rocks seems to be lowered by low radon entry rates, probably caused by slab-on-grade construction, use of evaporative coolers, and lifestyle factors. With the uranium-rich soils and rocks present, however, high indoor radon levels are possible where unusual housing conditions are present.

  14. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment of the modular HTGR plant. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Everline, C.J.; Bellis, E.A.; Vasquez, J.

    1986-06-01

    A preliminary probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed for the modular HTGR (MHTGR). This PRA is preliminary in the context that although it updates the PRA issued earlier to include a wider spectrum of events for Licensing Basis Events (LBE) selection, the final version will not be issued until later. The primary function of the assessment was to assure compliance with the NRC interim safety goals imposed by the top-level regulatory criteria, and utility/user requirements regarding public evacuation or sheltering. In addition, the assessment provides a basis for designer feedback regarding reliability allocations and barrier retention requirements as well as providing a basis for the selection of licensing basis events (LBEs) and the safety classification of structures, systems, and components. The assessment demonstrates that both the NRC interim safety goals and utility/user imposed sheltering/evacuation requirements are satisfied. Moreover, it is not anticipated that design changes introduced will jeopardize compliance with the interim safety goals or utility/user requirements. 61 refs., 48 figs., 24 tabs.

  16. Risk assessment Barter Island radar installation, Alaska

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-05

    This document contains the baseline human health risk assessment and the ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the Barter Island Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line radar installation. Fourteen sites at the Barter Island radar installation underwent remedial investigations (RIS) during the summer of 1993. The presence of chemical contamination in the soil, sediments, and surface water at the installation was evaluated and reported in the Barter Island Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) United States Air Force 1994a. The analytical data reported in the RI/FS form the basis for the human health and ecological risk assessment. The primary contaminants of concern at the 14 sites are diesel and gasoline from past spills and/or leaks. The general location of the Barter Island radar installation is shown in Figure 1-1. The 14 sites investigated and the types of samples collected at each site are presented in Table 1-1. The purpose of the risk assessment is to evaluate the human and ecological health risks that may be associated with chemicals released to the environment at the 14 sites investigated during the RIs. The risk assessment characterizes the probability that measured concentrations of hazardous chemical substances will cause adverse effects in humans or the environment in the absence of remediation. The risk assessment will be used to determine if remediation (site cleanup) is necessary and also to rank sites for remedial action. Additionally, it will be used as a model for the risk assessment to be performed at the other DEW Line installations (Bullen Point, Oliktok Point, Point Lonely, Barrow Point, Wainwright, and Point Lay) and the Cape Lisburne radar installation. pg18. JMD.

  17. New Methodology for Rapid Seismic Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melikyan, A. E.; Balassanian, S. Y.

    2002-05-01

    Seismic risk is growing worldwide and is, increasingly, a problem of developing countries. Along with growing urbanization future earthquakes will have more disastrous social and economic consequences. Seismic risk assessment and reduction are important goals for each country located in seismically active zone. For Armenia these goals are of primary importance because the results of studies carried out by Armenian NSSP for assessment of the losses caused by various types of disasters in Armenia had shown that earthquakes are the most disastrous hazard for Armenia. The strategy for seismic risk reduction in 1999 was adopted by the Government of Armenia as a high priority state program. The world experience demonstrates that for efficient response the rapid assessment of seismic losses is necessary. There are several state-of-the-art approaches for seismic risk assessment (Radius, Hazus, etc.). All of them required large amount of various input data, which is impossible to collect in many developing countries, in particular in Armenia. Taking into account this very serious problem existing for developing countries, as well as rapid seismic risk assessment need immediately after strong earthquake the author undertake the attempt to contribute into a new approach for rapid seismic risk assessment under the supervision of Prof. S. Balassanian. The analysis of numerous factors influencing seismic risk in Armenia shows that the following elements contribute most significantly to the possible losses: seismic hazard; density of population; vulnerability of structures. Proposed approach for rapid seismic risk assessment based on these three factors has been tested for several seismic events. These tests have shown that such approach might represent from 80 to 90 percent of real losses.

  18. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  19. Comprehensive methodology for ecological risk assessment of contaminated soils

    SciTech Connect

    Kuperman, R.G.

    1994-12-31

    Development of a comprehensive methodology for ecological risk assessment and monitoring of contaminated soils is essential to assess the impacts of environmental contaminants on soil community and biologically-mediated processes in soil. The proposed four-step plan involves (1) a thorough survey of the soil community to establish biodiversity and a base-line community structure, (2) toxicity trials on indicator species and whole soil invertebrate communities, (3) laboratory and field tests on indicator processes and (4) the use of statistical and simulation models to ascertain changes in the soil ecosystems. This methodology was used in portions of the US Army`s Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland as part of an ecological risk assessment. Previous soil analyses showed extensive surface soil contamination with metals, nitrate and PCBs. Preliminary results from field surveys of soil invertebrate communities showed significant reductions in total abundance of animals, reductions in the abundance of several taxonomic and functional groups of soil invertebrates, and changes in the activity of epigeic arthropods in contaminated areas when compared with the local ``background`` area. Laboratory tests also demonstrated that microbial activity and success of egg hatching of ground beetle Harpalus pensylvanicus were reduced in contaminated soils. These results suggest that impacts to soil ecosystems should be explicitly considered in ecological risk assessment. The proposed comprehensive methodology appears to offer an efficient and potentially cost saving tool for remedial investigations of contaminated sites.

  20. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  1. NATIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TOXICS RISKS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

  2. Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) Volume III: Part A

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) Volume 3A provides policies and guiding principles on the application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods to human health and ecological risk assessment in the EPA Superfund Program.

  3. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  4. Risk Assessment in the 21st Century

    EPA Science Inventory

    For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional app...

  5. Blue print for building a risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Otsuki, H.K.; Eagan-McNeill, E.

    1997-05-01

    Federal and stet regulations require the operator of a miscellaneous waste treatment unit to demonstrate compliance with environmental performance standard. A sample risk assessment is demonstrated as a means of showing compliance for such a treatment unit. A new Open Burning and Open Detonation (OB/OD) facility for explosive wastes at LLNL experimental site is used. Simplified, the process of performing a risk assessment consists of characterization of the treatment operation and estimation of emission rates; evaluation of the emission dispersion to estimate acute exposure; and evaluation of human and environmental risks. Each step may require the environmental analysts to perform detained date gathering, modeling and calculations, and to negotiate with facility operations personnel and regulatory representatives. The Risk Assessment Protocol, which explains the assumptions, model selection and inputs, and data selection, must ultimately withstand the rigors of regulatory review and public scrutiny.s

  6. Methodology and a preliminary data base for examining the health risks of electricity generation from uranium and coal fuels

    SciTech Connect

    El-Bassioni, A.A.

    1980-08-01

    An analytical model was developed to assess and examine the health effects associated with the production of electricity from uranium and coal fuels. The model is based on a systematic methodology that is both simple and easy to check, and provides details about the various components of health risk. A preliminary set of data that is needed to calculate the health risks was gathered, normalized to the model facilities, and presented in a concise manner. Additional data will become available as a result of other evaluations of both fuel cycles, and they should be included in the data base. An iterative approach involving only a few steps is recommended for validating the model. After each validation step, the model is improved in the areas where new information or increased interest justifies such upgrading. Sensitivity analysis is proposed as the best method of using the model to its full potential. Detailed quantification of the risks associated with the two fuel cycles is not presented in this report. The evaluation of risks from producing electricity by these two methods can be completed only after several steps that address difficult social and technical questions. Preliminary quantitative assessment showed that several factors not considered in detail in previous studies are potentially important. 255 refs., 21 figs., 179 tabs.

  7. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs.

  8. TSCA Work Plan Chemical Risk Assessment: 1 ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    1-Bromopropane (CASRN 106-94-5): or 1-BP is a volatile organic chemical that is considered moderately persistent in the environment but does not have the potential to bioaccumulate in fish or other animals. The majority of the 1-BP production volume (~ 47%) is used as a vapor degreaser for optics electronics, plastics, and metals. 1-BP also is used as an aerosol solvent in cleaning products, as a spray fixative in arts and crafts, and as a spot cleaner in various industrial/commercial/consumer sectors. Focus of the Risk Assessment: The assessment will focus on uses of 1-BP in commercial (i.e., vapor degreasing, spray adhesives, and dry cleaning) and consumer applications (i.e., aerosol solvent cleaners and spray adhesives). Given the range of endpoints (i.e., cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), susceptible populations are expected to include adults (including pregnant women) in commercial uses and children (as bystanders) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women) for consumer uses. Thus, the assessment will focus on all humans/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its work on the a

  9. Ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors.

    PubMed Central

    Hutchinson, T H; Brown, R; Brugger, K E; Campbell, P M; Holt, M; Länge, R; McCahon, P; Tattersfield, L J; van Egmond, R

    2000-01-01

    The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals proposes a tiered approach for the ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors, integrating exposure and hazard (effects) characterization. Exposure assessment for endocrine disruptors should direct specific tests for wildlife species, placing hazard data into a risk assessment context. Supplementing the suite of mammalian screens now under Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) validation, high priority should be given to developing a fish screening assay for detecting endocrine activity in oviparous species. Taking into account both exposure characterization and alerts from endocrine screening, higher tier tests are also a priority for defining adverse effects. We propose that in vivo mammalian and fish assays provide a comprehensive screening battery for diverse hormonal functions (including androgen, estrogen, and thyroid hormone), whereas Amphibia should be considered at higher tiers if there are exposure concerns. Higher tier endocrine-disruptor testing should include fish development and fish reproduction tests, whereas a full life-cycle test could be subsequently used to refine aquatic risk assessments when necessary. For avian risk assessment, the new OECD Japanese quail reproduction test guideline provides a valuable basis for developing a test to detecting endocrine-mediated reproductive effects; this species could be used, where necessary, for an avian life-cycle test. For aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, data from existing developmental and reproductive tests remain of high value for ecological risk assessment. High priority should be given to research into comparative endocrine physiology of invertebrates to support data extrapolation to this diverse fauna. PMID:11102288

  10. Risk assessment of mixed waste sites

    SciTech Connect

    Montague, D.F.; Holton, G.A.; King, C.M.

    1987-12-31

    As part of its ongoing efforts to ensure environmental regulation compliance at DOE facilities, DOE published on April 26, 1985, a notice of intent to write an Environmental Impact Statement on Waste Management Activities for Groundwater Protection (Groundwater EIS) at the Savannah River Plant (SRP). To perform a human health risk assessment of each waste site for each closure action considered, DuPont organized a project team led by personnel from the Savannah River Laboratory (SRL) and supported by outside contractors specializing in risk assessment work. As part of that team, JBF Associates, Inc. (JBFA) performed an atmospheric containment transport analysis and human health risk assessment of nonradioactive contaminants from SRP waste sites. For each waste site, three closure actions were examined: (1) excavate the site, backfill it, and cap it followed by regular groundwater monitoring (Option 1); (2) backfill and cap the site followed by regular groundwater monitoring (Option 2); and (3) no remedial action, regular groundwater monitoring, and some site maintenance work (Option 3). The human health risk assessment performed by JBFA estimated the public and worker risks from contaminants released to the atmosphere from each waste site for each closure option. This paper first presents the methodology JBFA used to estimate the public and worker risks attributable to the inhalation and ingestion of airborne, nonradioactive contaminants. Following the description of the analysis methodology, the authors present the risk results for the waste sites that were due to atmospherically released nonradioactive contaminants. Both worker risks and public risks are presented. Finally, the authors present the results and conclusions derived from their analysis of the risk from airborne, nonradioactive contaminants.

  11. Modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Koutsoumanis, Konstantinos

    2009-02-01

    In this study, I describe a systematic approach for modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment that is based on the incorporation of kinetic spoilage modeling in exposure assessment by combining data and models for the specific spoilage organisms (SSO: fraction of the total microflora responsible for spoilage) with those for pathogens. The structure of the approach is presented through an exposure assessment application for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef. The proposed approach allows for identifying spoiled products at the time of consumption by comparing the estimated level of SSO (pseudomonads) with the spoilage level (level of SSO at which spoilage is observed). The results of the application indicate that ignoring spoilage in risk assessment could lead to significant overestimations of risk.

  12. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    PubMed

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  13. Assessment of wind turbine seismic risk : existing literature and simple study of tower moment demand.

    SciTech Connect

    Prowell, Ian; Veers, Paul S.

    2009-03-01

    Various sources of risk exist for all civil structures, one of which is seismic risk. As structures change in scale, the magnitude of seismic risk changes relative to risk from other sources. This paper presents an introduction to seismic hazard as applied to wind turbine structures. The existing design methods and research regarding seismic risk for wind turbines is then summarized. Finally a preliminary assessment is made based on current guidelines to understand how tower moment demand scales as rated power increases. Potential areas of uncertainty in the application of the current guidelines are summarized.

  14. Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on complex animal models that better replicate human behavior and a wider array of molecular and mechanistic data relevant to interpreting the underlying cause(s) of toxicity. However, modern neurotoxicology studies are often more nuanced and complicated than traditional studies, and they often vary considerably in evaluation methods from one study to the next, impeding comparisons. This can pose particular difficulties for risk assessors, especially given the recent demand for chemical risk assessments to be more systematic and transparent. This presentation will introduce and provide some examples of specific challenges in neurotoxicity assessments of environmental chemicals. Some of these challenges are relatively new to the field, such as the incorporation of data on neuron-supportive glial cells into hazard characterization, while other challenges have persisted for several decades, but only recently are studies being designed to evaluate them, including analyses of latent neurotoxicity. The examples provided illustrate some future research areas of interest for scientists and risk assessors examining human neurotoxicity risk. This abstract will be presented to internal U.S. Food and Drug A

  15. Wind power in Eritrea, Africa: A preliminary resource assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Garbesi, K.; Rosen, K.; Van Buskirk, R.

    1997-12-31

    The authors preliminary assessment of Eritrean wind energy potential identified two promising regions: (1) the southeastern Red Sea coast and (2) the mountain passes that channel winds between the coastal lowlands and the interior highlands. The coastal site, near the port city of Aseb, has an exceptionally good resource, with estimated average annual wind speeds at 10-m height above 9 m/s at the airport and 7 m/s in the port. Furthermore, the southern 200 km of coastline has offshore WS{sub aa} > 6 m/s. This area has strong potential for development, having a local 20 MW grid and unmet demand for the fishing industry and development. Although the highland sites contain only marginal wind resources ({approximately} 5 m/s), they warrant further investigation because of their proximity to the capital city, Asmera, which has the largest unmet demand and a larger power grid (40 MW with an additional 80 MW planned) to absorb an intermittent source without storage.

  16. Preliminary radiometric calibration assessment of ALOS AVNIR-2

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bouvet, M.; Goryl, P.; Chander, G.; Santer, R.; Saunier, S.

    2008-01-01

    This paper summarizes the activities carried out in the frame of the data quality activities of the Advanced Visible and Near Infrared Radiometer type 2 (AVNIR-2) sensor onboard the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS). Assessment of the radiometric calibration of the AVNIR-2 multi-spectral imager is achieved via three intercomparisons to currently flying sensors over the Libyan desert, during the first year of operation. AU three methodologies indicate a slight underestimation of AVNIR-2 in band 1 by 4 to 7% with respect to other sensors radiometric scale. Band 2 does not show any obvious bias. Results for band 3 are affected by saturation due to inappropriate gain setting. Two methodologies indicate no significant bias in band 4. Preliminary results indicate possible degradations of the AVNIR-2 channels, which, when modeled as an exponentially decreasing functions, have time constants of respectively 13.2 %.year-1, 8.8%.year-1 and 0.1%.year-1 in band 1, 2 and 4 (with respect to the radiometric scale of the MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, MERIS). Longer time series of AVNIR-2 data are needed to draw final conclusions. ?? 2007 IEEE.

  17. Preliminary Assessment of Thrust Augmentation of NEP Based Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chew, Gilbert; Pelaccio, Dennis G.; Chiroux, Robert; Pervan, Sherry; Rauwolf, Gerald A.; White, Charles

    2005-01-01

    Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), with support from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, has conducted a preliminary study to compare options for augmenting the thrust of a conventional nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) system. These options include a novel nuclear propulsion system concept known as Hybrid Indirect Nuclear Propulsion (HINP) and conventional chemical propulsion. The utility and technical feasibility of the HINP concept are assessed, and features and potential of this new in-space propulsion system concept are identified. As part of the study, SAIC developed top-level design tools to model the size and performance of an HINP system, as well as for several chemical propulsion options, including liquid and gelled propellants. A mission trade study was performed to compare a representative HINP system with chemical propulsion options for thrust augmentation of NEP systems for a mission to Saturn's moon Titan. Details pertaining to the approach, features, initial demonstration results for HINP model development, and the mission trade study are presented. Key technology and design issues associated with the HINP concept and future work recommendations are also identified.

  18. Concepts in critical thinking applied to caries risk assessment in dental education.

    PubMed

    Guzman-Armstrong, Sandra; Warren, John J; Cunningham-Ford, Marsha A; von Bergmann, HsingChi; Johnsen, David C

    2014-06-01

    Much progress has been made in the science of caries risk assessment and ways to analyze caries risk, yet dental education has seen little movement toward the development of frameworks to guide learning and assess critical thinking in caries risk assessment. In the absence of previous proactive implementation of a learning framework that takes the knowledge of caries risk and critically applies it to the patient with the succinctness demanded in the clinical setting, the purpose of this study was to develop a model learning framework that combines the science of caries risk assessment with principles of critical thinking from the education literature. This article also describes the implementation of that model at one dental school and presents some preliminary assessment data.

  19. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2016-12-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  20. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    PubMed

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  1. ORAMUS(WINDOWS). Ozone Risk AssessMent Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R.G.; Jusko, M.J.; Biller, W.F.

    1998-12-01

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates are based on the EPA`s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.

  2. ORAMUS(DOS). Ozone Risk AssessMent Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R.G.; Jusko, M.J.; Biller, W.F.

    1998-12-01

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates are based on the EPA`s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 acute health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.

  3. Preliminary biogeochemical assessment of EPICA LGM and Holocene ice samples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulat, S.; Alekhina, I.; Marie, D.; Wagenbach, D.; Raynaud, D.; Petit, J. R.

    2009-04-01

    weak signals were possible to generate which are now under cloning. The signals were hard to reproduce because of rather low volume of samples. More ice volume is needed to get the biosignal stronger and reproducible. Meantime we are adjusting PCR and in addition testing DNA repair-enzyme cocktail in case of DNA damage. As a preliminary conclusion we would like to highlight the following. Both Holocene and LGM ice samples (EDC99 and EDML) are very clean in terms of Ultra low biomass and Ultra low DOC content. The most basal ice of EDC and EDML ice cores could help in assessing microbial biomass and diversity if present under the glacier at the ice-bedrock boundary. * The present-day consortium includes S. Bulat, I. Alekhina, P. Normand, D. Prieur, J-R. Petit and D. Raynaud (France) and E. Willerslev and J.P. Steffensen (Denmark)

  4. Method and apparatus for assessing cardiovascular risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Albrecht, Paul (Inventor); Bigger, J. Thomas (Inventor); Cohen, Richard J. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    The method for assessing risk of an adverse clinical event includes detecting a physiologic signal in the subject and determining from the physiologic signal a sequence of intervals corresponding to time intervals between heart beats. The long-time structure of fluctuations in the intervals over a time period of more than fifteen minutes is analyzed to assess risk of an adverse clinical event. In a preferred embodiment, the physiologic signal is an electrocardiogram and the time period is at least fifteen minutes. A preferred method for analyzing the long-time structure variability in the intervals includes computing the power spectrum and fitting the power spectrum to a power law dependence on frequency over a selected frequency range such as 10.sup.-4 to 10.sup.-2 Hz. Characteristics of the long-time structure fluctuations in the intervals is used to assess risk of an adverse clinical event.

  5. Risk factors for and assessment of constipation.

    PubMed

    Chapman, Sherree; Hungerford, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    Constipation commonly occurs in older people, particularly in hospital or residential care settings, and leads to decreased quality of life and increased healthcare costs. Despite its frequency, however, nurses often overlook the condition. One possible reason for this may be the lack of appropriate tools or scales for nurses to assess risk factors for developing constipation. This article identifies, from the academic literature, 14 risk factors for developing constipation in older people. These factors are then considered in light of four common constipation assessment charts. The article concludes by arguing the need for more comprehensive assessment tools to, firstly, identify risk factors; and, secondly, support the implementation of appropriate preventative strategies that will enable better health outcomes for older people.

  6. A Monte Carlo simulation approach for flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agili, Hachem; Chokmani, Karem; Oubennaceur, Khalid; Poulin, Jimmy; Marceau, Pascal

    2016-04-01

    Floods are the most frequent natural disaster and the most damaging in Canada. The issue of assessing and managing the risk related to this disaster has become increasingly crucial for both local and national authorities. Brigham, a municipality located in southern Quebec Province, is one of the heavily affected regions by this disaster because of frequent overflows of the Yamaska River reaching two to three times per year. Since Irene Hurricane which hit the region in 2011 causing considerable socio-economic damage, the implementation of mitigation measures has become a major priority for this municipality. To do this, a preliminary study to evaluate the risk to which this region is exposed is essential. Conventionally, approaches only based on the characterization of the hazard (e.g. floodplains extensive, flood depth) are generally adopted to study the risk of flooding. In order to improve the knowledge of this risk, a Monte Carlo simulation approach combining information on the hazard with vulnerability-related aspects of buildings has been developed. This approach integrates three main components namely hydrological modeling through flow-probability functions, hydraulic modeling using flow-submersion height functions and the study of buildings damage based on damage functions adapted to the Quebec habitat. The application of this approach allows estimating the annual average cost of damage caused by floods on buildings. The obtained results will be useful for local authorities to support their decisions on risk management and prevention against this disaster.

  7. Preliminary Mineral Resource Assessment of Selected Mineral Deposit Types in Afghanistan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ludington, Steve; Orris, Greta J.; Bolm, Karen S.; Peters, Stephen G.; ,

    2007-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Wise decision-making and management of natural resources depend upon credible and reliable scientific information about the occurrence, distribution, quantity and quality of a country's resource base. Economic development decisions by governments require such information to be part of a Mineral Resource Assessment. Such Mineral Assessments are also useful to private citizens and international investors, consultants, and companies prior to entry and investment in a country. Assessments can also be used to help evaluate the economic risks and impact on the natural environment associated with development of resources. In February 2002, at the request of the Department of State and the then U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan (Robert P. Finn), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) prepared a detailed proposal addressing natural resources issues critical to the reconstruction of Afghanistan. The proposal was refined and updated in December 2003 and was presented as a 5-year work plan to USAID-Kabul in February 2004. USAID-Kabul currently funds this plan and this report presents a part of the preliminary results obligated for fiscal year 2006. A final Preliminary Assessment of the Non Fuel Mineral Resource of Afghanistan will be completed and delivered at the end of fiscal year 2007. Afghanistan has abundant metallic and non-metallic resources, but the potential resources have never been systematically assessed using modern methods. Much of the existing mineral information for Afghanistan was gathered during the 1950s and continued in the late 1980s until the departure of the geologic advisors from the Soviet Union. During this period, there were many mineral-related activities centered on systematic geologic mapping of the country, collection of geochemical and rock samples, implementation of airborne geophysical surveys, and exploration focused on the discovery of large mineral deposits. Many reports, maps, charts, and tables were produced at that time. Some of

  8. [Monitoring and risk assessment of campylobacter infections].

    PubMed

    Bartelt, E

    2004-08-01

    The aim of a national study of a "Quantitative Risk Assessment of Campylobacter infections and broiler chicken" at the Federal Institute for Risk Assessment is to estimate the chicken meat associated risk of Campylobacteriosis in Germany by using probabilistic models. Furthermore, process parameters (modelling parameters) with the most vital impact on the risk of Campylobacteriosis due to chicken meat have to be elaborated to give recommendations for risk management options in the whole food chain. The outcome of Joint FAO/WHO Expert Consultations on Risk Assessment of Microbiological Hazards in Foods (JEMRA) with respect to Campylobacter spp. in broiler chickens are the baseline for the national approach. In addition, national studies from Canada, Denmark and The Netherlands have to be considered. Typical regional data with respect to the disease, to risk factors in Germany and to the qualitative and quantitative occurrence of Campylobacter in broiler chickens along the "farm-to-fork" continuum have to be collected and validated for elaboration of the four elements of a risk assessment. Data on the prevalence of the agent at different stages of the food chain given in available surveillance systems in Germany are limited with respect to their suitability as incoming parameters for the models. A monitoring programme, as required in the Directive 2003/99/EC on the monitoring of zoonoses and zoonotic agents, as well as coordinated programmes for the official food control authorities, could improve the data baseline for risk assessment studies for instance. To collect all necessary information on the quantitative load of Camylobacter in broiler chickens will go beyond the scope of any existing or future monitoring systems. Results can only be achieved by detailed studies. Beside this, regional data on production and processing of broiler chicken, consumption data and information on the behaviour of consumers in households when preparing broiler chicken products are

  9. [Benefit-risk assessment of vaccination strategies].

    PubMed

    Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre Yves

    2007-04-01

    This article summarises the various stages of the risk/benefit assessment of vaccination strategies. Establishing the awaited effectiveness of a vaccination strategy supposes to have an epidemiologic description of the disease to be prevented. The effectiveness of the vaccine strategy will be thus expressed in numbers of cases, hospitalizations or deaths avoided. The effectiveness can be direct, expressed as the reduction of the incidence of the infectious disease in the vaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated subjects. It can also be indirect, the unvaccinated persons being protected by the suspension in circulation of the pathogenic agent, consecutive to the implementation of the vaccination campaign. The risks of vaccination related to the adverse effects detected during the clinical trials preceding marketing are well quantified, but other risks can occur after marketing: e.g., serious and unexpected adverse effects detected by vaccinovigilance systems, or risk of increase in the age of cases if the vaccination coverage is insufficient. The medico-economic evaluation forms a part of the risks/benefit assessment, by positioning the vaccine strategy comparatively with other interventions for health. Epidemiologic and vaccinovigilance informations must be updated very regularly, which underlines the need for having an operational and reliable real time monitoring system to accompany the vaccination strategies. Lastly, in the context of uncertainty which often accompanies the risks/benefit assessments, it is important that an adapted communication towards the public and the doctors is planned.

  10. Recidivism Risk Assessment for Adult Sexual Offenders.

    PubMed

    Holoyda, Brian J; Newman, William J

    2016-02-01

    Sexual offending is a significant public health problem in the USA due to its prevalence and the substantial impact it has on victims, victims' families, and the legal and mental health systems. The assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk is an important aspect of developing effective management strategies for sexual offenders in terms of placement, treatment, and other interventions. Researchers have developed numerous tools to aid in the assessment of sexual violence recidivism risk, including actuarial measures, structured professional judgment methods, and psychophysiologic assessment of sexual interests. The Static-99R and Sexual Violence Risk-20 are two instruments that have received substantial research attention for their ability to accurately compare offenders' risk of recidivism to normative group data. Penile plethysmography and visual reaction time are used to evaluate subjects' responses to sexual stimuli in an effort to characterize offenders' sexual arousal and interest, respectively. Though current research has focused on risk assessment tools' predictive utility, future research will need to examine the impact that actuarial and structured professional judgment tools have on reducing recidivism if they are to have relevance in the management of sexual offenders.

  11. Health Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures | Science ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The implementation of Superfund requires a methodology for estimating health risk from multi-chemical contamination at ambient levels. Most often, the chemical composition of these mixtures is poorly characterized, exposure data are uncertain and toxicologic data on the known components of the mixture are limited. However, a potential human health hazard may exist and the U.S.EPA, state and local governments need to be able to assess the total hazard in order to make decisions on appropriate action. This report describes a procedure for assessing the risks from chemical mixtures that includes options when different kinds of data are available. Good-quality information on the mixture of concern or a similar mixture should always be used. Less desirable, but still useful approach, is to utilize data on components and their interactions. The quality of exposure and toxicity data must be determined and the uncertainties involved in each risk assessment must be thoroughly discussed. ater contamination is briefly discussed since it is of vital concern as the primary exposure medium for chemical mixtures. The methodology for estimating the human health risk from single chemicals, both carcinogens and systemic toxicants, is reviewed as it forms the basis for the assessment of mixtures. The Implementation of Superfund requires a methodology for estimating health risk from multi-chemical contamination at ambient levels. Most often, the chemical composition of these mix

  12. Assessment of health risks of policies

    SciTech Connect

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana; and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  13. RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE DYE AND PIGMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This risk assessment calculates the maximum loadings of constituents found in dyes and pigment industries waste streams which can be disposed in different types of waste management units without causing health benchmarks to be exceeded at plausible receptor locations. The assessment focuses on potential risks from volatilization and leaching to groundwater of constituents disposed in surface impoundments and landfills with either clay liners or composite liners. This product will be used by EPA decision makers to assist in determining whether certain waste streams generated by the dyes and pigments industries should be designated as hazardous.

  14. Pressure sore risk assessment in children.

    PubMed

    Waterlow, J A

    1997-07-01

    A multi-centred study was undertaken involving 300 children ranging from neonates to children aged 16 years. The purpose of the study was to investigate the possibility of designing a pressure sore risk assessment scoring system suitable for the paediatric area of care. It was found that the following conclusions can be drawn: (i) Children are at risk of developing pressure sores; (ii) A version of the adult Waterlow card was not appropriate, especially at the younger end of the scale; (iii) There are identifiable situations and treatments which do pose a risk of pressure sore development. Admission documentation and a care plan within a hospital policy is recommended as the best method of drawing nurses' attention to the risk factors involved and the measures which need to be taken to alleviate the risk of tissue damage.

  15. Environment effects from SRB exhaust effluents: Technique development and preliminary assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldford, A. I.; Adelfang, S. I.; Hickey, J. S.; Smith, S. R.; Welty, R. P.; White, G. L.

    1977-01-01

    Techniques to determine the environmental effects from the space shuttle SRB (Solid Rocket Booster) exhaust effluents are used to perform a preliminary climatological assessment. The exhaust effluent chemistry study was performed and the exhaust effluent species were determined. A reasonable exhaust particle size distribution is constructed for use in nozzle analyses and for the deposition model. The preliminary assessment is used to identify problems that are associated with the full-scale assessment; therefore, these preliminary air quality results are used with caution in drawing conclusion regarding the environmental effects of the space shuttle exhaust effluents.

  16. Recording pressure ulcer risk assessment and incidence.

    PubMed

    Plaskitt, Anne; Heywood, Nicola; Arrowsmith, Michaela

    2015-07-15

    This article reports on the introduction of an innovative computer-based system developed to record and report pressure ulcer risk and incidence at an acute NHS trust. The system was introduced to ensure that all patients have an early pressure ulcer risk assessment, which prompts staff to initiate appropriate management if a pressure ulcer is detected, thereby preventing further patient harm. Initial findings suggest that this electronic process has helped to improve the timeliness and accuracy of data on pressure ulcer risk and incidence. In addition, it has resulted in a reduced number of reported hospital-acquired pressure ulcers.

  17. New method for assessing risks of email

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  18. Application of geostatistics to risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Thayer, William C; Griffith, Daniel A; Goodrum, Philip E; Diamond, Gary L; Hassett, James M

    2003-10-01

    Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.

  19. Preliminary characterization of risks in the nuclear waste management system based on information in the literature

    SciTech Connect

    Daling, P.M.; Rhoads, R.E.; Van Luick, A.E.; Fecht, B.A.; Nilson, S.A.; Sevigny, N.L.; Armstrong, G.R.; Hill, D.H.; Rowe, M.; Stern, E.

    1992-01-01

    This document presents preliminary information on the radiological and nonradiological risks in the nuclear waste management system. The objective of the study was to (1) review the literature containing information on risks in the nuclear waste management system and (2) use this information to develop preliminary estimates of the potential magnitude of these risks. Information was collected on a broad range of risk categories to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in communicating information about the risks in the waste management systems. The study examined all of the portions of the nuclear waste management system currently expected to be developed by the DOE. The scope of this document includes the potential repository, the integral MRS facility, and the transportation system that supports the potential repository and the MRS facility. Relevant literature was reviewed for several potential repository sites and geologic media. A wide range of ``risk categories`` are addressed in this report: (1) public and occupational risks from accidents that could release radiological materials, (2) public and occupational radiation exposure resulting from routine operations, (3) public and occupational risks from accidents involving hazards other than radioactive materials, and (4) public and occupational risks from exposure to nonradioactive hazardous materials during routine operations. The report is intended to provide a broad spectrum of risk-related information about the waste management system. This information is intended to be helpful for planning future studies.

  20. Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

    SciTech Connect

    Moss, R. H.; Delgado, A.; Malone, E L.

    2015-08-15

    U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before final conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure

  1. Preliminary impact assessment of effusive eruptions at Etna volcano

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cappello, Annalisa; Michaud-Dubuy, Audrey; Branca, Stefano; De Beni, Emanuela; Del Negro, Ciro

    2016-04-01

    Lava flows are a recurring and widespread form of volcanic activity that threaten people and property around the world. The growing demographic congestion around volcanic structures increases the potential risks and costs that lava flows represent, and leads to a pressing need for faster and more accurate assessment of lava flow impact. To fully evaluate potential effects and losses that an effusive eruption may cause to society, property and environment, it is necessary to consider the hazard, the distribution of the exposed elements at stake and the associated vulnerability. Lava flow hazard assessment is at an advanced state, whereas comprehensive vulnerability assessment is lacking. Cataloguing and analyzing volcanic impacts provide insight on likely societal and physical vulnerabilities during future eruptions. Here we quantify the lava flow impact of two past main effusive eruptions of Etna volcano: the 1669, which is the biggest and destructive flank eruption to have occurred on Etna in historical time, and the 1981, lasting only 6 days, but characterized by an intense eruptive dynamics. Different elements at stake are considered, including population, hospitals, critical facilities, buildings of historic value, industrial infrastructures, gas and electricity networks, railways, roads, footways and finally land use. All these elements were combined with the 1669 and 1981 lava flow fields to quantify the social damage and economic loss.

  2. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect

    2009-01-18

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program (The Program). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC, in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE).

  3. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    PubMed

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  4. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    SciTech Connect

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  5. Assessing Seasonal Lake Dynamics in Arctic Alaska: Preliminary Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hinkel, K. M.; Beck, R. A.; Healey, N.; Jones, S.; Lenters, J.; Lyons, E. A.; Shah, C. A.; Sheng, Y.; Smith, L. C.; Winston, B. S.; Jones, B. M.

    2008-12-01

    Lakes on the coastal plain of arctic Alaska have developed atop continuous permafrost. Recent research suggests that lake levels, rates of bank erosion and drainage, and depth of the thaw bulb in sediments beneath the lake may increase in response to a warmer and wetter climate. Assessment of lake dynamics entails separating seasonal and interannual fluctuations from the long-term response. A program to study lake dynamics was initiated in 2008 and includes: (1) analysis of both long-term lake changes and seasonal/ interannual fluctuations using high-resolution satellite imagery and aerial photographs, (2) repeated high- resolution mapping of shoreline configuration in spring and late summer using differential GPS combined with water level sensors, (3) conducting bathymetric surveys to determine basin shape and water volume, (4) evaluating the relation between wind vectors and surface water currents with real-time satellite networked GPS-enabled floats and a wide-area wireless network, and (5) quantifying the energy and water balance on a representative lake using data collected from a fully instrumented buoy. Lake basins surveyed near Barrow, Alaska have a maximum depth of 1.5-3.0 m and are characterized by a steep drop-off near the shore and very gradual deepening toward the center. Seasonal shoreline fluctuations are observed in most lakes, with the maximum effect noted in low-lying regions of the lake margin as the water level gradually falls through summer. Preliminary analysis of the lake energy and water balance is presented, including measurements of incoming and outgoing radiation, latent and sensible heat flux, and associated lake temperature and atmospheric parameters. In subsequent years, measurements will be made on lakes further inland where the surficial geology and climate differs from the coastal environment.

  6. 43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... pathways. (1) The authorized official shall make a preliminary identification of potential exposure pathways to facilitate identification of resources at risk. (2) Factors to be considered in this... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include,...

  7. 43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... pathways. (1) The authorized official shall make a preliminary identification of potential exposure pathways to facilitate identification of resources at risk. (2) Factors to be considered in this... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include,...

  8. 43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... pathways. (1) The authorized official shall make a preliminary identification of potential exposure pathways to facilitate identification of resources at risk. (2) Factors to be considered in this... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include,...

  9. 43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... pathways. (1) The authorized official shall make a preliminary identification of potential exposure pathways to facilitate identification of resources at risk. (2) Factors to be considered in this... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include,...

  10. 43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... pathways. (1) The authorized official shall make a preliminary identification of potential exposure pathways to facilitate identification of resources at risk. (2) Factors to be considered in this... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include,...

  11. Risk Assessment for Toxic Air Pollutants: A Citizen's Guide

    MedlinePlus

    ... IT ALL UP Public health agencies concerned with air quality perform risk assessments to determine the increased risk of illness from a specific human exposure to a toxic air pollutant. Risk assessment is a four-step process: ( ...

  12. Ecosystem services in risk assessment and management. ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The ecosystem services (ES) concept holds much promise for environmental decision making. Even so, the concept has yet to gain full traction in the decisions and policies of environmental agencies in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. Here we examine the opportunities for and implications of including ES in risk assessments and the risk management decisions that they inform. We assert that use of ES will: 1) lead to more comprehensive environmental protection; 2) help to articulate the benefits of environmental decisions, policies, and actions; 3) better inform the derivation of environmental quality standards; 4) enable integration of human health and ecological risk assessment; and 5) facilitate horizontal integration of policies, regulations, and programs. We provide the technical basis and supporting rationale for each assertion, relying on examples taken from experiences in the United States and European Union. Specific recommendations are offered for use of ES in risk assessment and risk management, and issues and challenges to advancing use of ES are described along with some of the science needed to improve the value of the ES concept to environmental protection. This paper is one of 4 papers generated from the 2014 Pellston Workshop “Ecosystem Services, Environmental Stressors and Decision Making,” organized jointly by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry and the Ecological Society of America. The main workshop objective was

  13. An approach to security risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Engells, Thomas E

    2012-01-01

    Use of a brief survey instrument described in this article can be a useful means of obtaining actionable information in regards to risk assessment and crime prevention, the author points out. The survey yields data that assists in the prioritization of effort that can enhance the impact of a limited pool of qualified specialists.

  14. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MICROBIAL AGENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Compared to chemical risk assessment, the process for microbial agents and infectious disease is more complex because of host factors and the variety of settings in which disease transmission can occur. While the National Academy of Science has established a paradigm for performi...

  15. AXES OF EXTRAPOLATION IN RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extrapolation in risk assessment involves the use of data and information to estimate or predict something that has not been measured or observed. Reasons for extrapolation include that the number of combinations of environmental stressors and possible receptors is too large to c...

  16. TOXICOGENOMICS AND HUMAN DISEASE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory


    Toxicogenomics and Human Disease Risk Assessment.

    Complete sequencing of human and other genomes, availability of large-scale gene
    expression arrays with ever-increasing numbers of genes displayed, and steady
    improvements in protein expression technology can hav...

  17. Risk Assessment with Adolescent Sex Offenders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christodoulides, T. E.; Richardson, G.; Graham, F.; Kennedy, P. J.; Kelly, T. P.

    2005-01-01

    The paper describes an evaluation of a risk assessment tool's effectiveness in distinguishing adolescent sexual offenders who had committed further sexual offences from those who had not. The sample consisted of 50 male adolescent sexual offenders referred to a forensic outpatient service within a healthcare setting. The adolescents within the…

  18. Methodology for qualitative urban flooding risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Leitão, João P; Almeida, Maria do Céu; Simões, Nuno E; Martins, André

    2013-01-01

    Pluvial or surface flooding can cause significant damage and disruption as it often affects highly urbanised areas. Therefore it is essential to accurately identify consequences and assess the risks associated with such phenomena. The aim of this study is to present the results and investigate the applicability of a qualitative flood risk assessment methodology in urban areas. This methodology benefits from recent developments in urban flood modelling, such as the dual-drainage modelling concept, namely one-dimensional automatic overland flow network delineation tools (e.g. AOFD) and 1D/1D models incorporating both surface and sewer drainage systems. To assess flood risk, the consequences can be estimated using hydraulic model results, such as water velocities and water depth results; the likelihood was estimated based on the return period of historical rainfall events. To test the methodology two rainfall events with return periods of 350 and 2 years observed in Alcântara (Lisbon, Portugal) were used and three consequence dimensions were considered: affected public transportation services, affected properties and pedestrian safety. The most affected areas in terms of flooding were easily identified; the presented methodology was shown to be easy to implement and effective to assess flooding risk in urban areas, despite the common difficulties in obtaining data.

  19. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR QUANTITATIVE RESPONSE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Relative Potency Factor approach (RPF) is used to normalize and combine different toxic potencies among a group of chemicals selected for cumulative risk assessment. The RPF method assumes that the slopes of the dose-response functions are all equal; but this method depends o...

  20. The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

    The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

  1. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  2. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    PubMed

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  3. exLOPA for explosion risks assessment.

    PubMed

    Markowski, Adam S

    2007-04-11

    The European Union regulations require safety and health protection of workers who are potentially at risk from explosive atmosphere areas. According to the requirements, the operators of installations where potentially explosive atmosphere can occur are obliged to produce an explosion protection document. The key objective of this document is the assessment of explosion risks. This paper is concerned with the so-called explosion layer of protection analysis (exLOPA), which allows for semi-quantitative explosion risk assessment for process plants where explosive atmospheres occur. The exLOPA is based on the original work of CCPS for LOPA but takes into account some typical factors appropriate for explosion, like the probability that an explosive atmosphere will occur, probability that sources of ignition will be present and become effective as well as the probability of failure on demand for appropriate explosion prevention and mitigation means.

  4. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  5. Preliminary assessment on the bioaccessibility of contaminants of emerging concern in raw and cooked seafood.

    PubMed

    Alves, Ricardo N; Maulvault, Ana L; Barbosa, Vera L; Cunha, Sara; Kwadijk, Christiaan J A F; Álvarez-Muñoz, Diana; Rodríguez-Mozaz, Sara; Aznar-Alemany, Òscar; Eljarrat, Ethel; Barceló, Damià; Fernandez-Tejedor, Margarita; Tediosi, Alice; Marques, António

    2017-02-13

    A preliminary assessment of the bioaccessibility of contaminants of emerging concern (CeCs), including perfluorinated compounds (PFCs; i.e. PFOS and PFUnA), brominated flame retardants (BFRs; i.e. BDE47, BDE100, α-HBCD) and pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs; i.e. venlafaxine, methylparaben and UV-filter OC) was performed in seafood species available in the European markets. Additionally, the effect of steaming on CeCs bioaccessibility was also investigated for the first time. Overall, steaming affected differentially contaminants' concentrations, for instance, decreasing PFOS levels in flounder, but increasing both BDE47 and BDE100. CeCs bioaccessibility varied according to seafood species and contaminant group, i.e. in general, lower bioaccessibility values were obtained for PBDEs (<70%, except for mackerel), while PFCs and PPCPs revealed higher bioaccessibility percentages (between 71 and 95%). The lowest bioaccessibility value was obtained for α-HBCD (mussel; 14%), whereas the highest percentage was observed in venlafaxine (mullet; 95%). Our preliminary study reports also, for the first time, the effects of steaming on CeCs bioaccessibility. In most cases, bioaccessibility was not affected by cooking, however, a decrease was observed in PBDEs and venlafaxine bioaccessibility in steamed mussels and mullet, respectively, thus lowering the potential health risks associated with seafood consumption.

  6. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    PubMed

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates.

  7. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect

    McVeigh, J.; Cohen, J.; Vorum, M.; Porro, G.; Nix, G.

    2007-03-01

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program ('the Program'). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC (PERI), in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE). This requires both computational development (i.e., creating a spreadsheet-based analysis tool) and a synthesis of judgments by a panel of researchers and experts of the expected results of the Program's R&D.

  8. Air Quality Modeling Technical Support Document for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS Preliminary Interstate Transport Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    In this technical support document (TSD) EPA describes the air quality modeling performed to support the 2015 ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) preliminary interstate transport assessment Notice of Data Availability (NODA).

  9. Results of a preliminary assessment of an explosive projectile launch system

    SciTech Connect

    Reaugh, J.E.

    1995-07-31

    This report presents results on a preliminary assessment of accelerating a projectile by a sequence of timed explosions. Computerized simulations were performed with CALE, a two-dimensional Arbitrary Language Eulerian program to examine principles and preferred operating parameters.

  10. New approaches in human health risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

    2016-01-01

    Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu). PMID:27974141

  11. Multilocus Genetic Risk Scores for Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David‐Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    Background Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL‐rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT‐rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). Methods and Results TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age‐ and sex‐matched case–control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature‐based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5‐rs6025 and F2‐rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. Conclusions We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. PMID:25341889

  12. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons.

    PubMed Central

    Evangelista de Duffard, A M; Duffard, R

    1996-01-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone,dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or changes in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. PMID:9182042

  13. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons

    SciTech Connect

    Evangelista de Duffard, A.M.; Duffard, R.

    1996-04-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone, dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or charges in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. 121 refs., 1 tab.

  14. Opioid risk assessment in palliative medicine.

    PubMed

    Dale, Rebecca; Edwards, Jeremy; Ballantyne, Jane

    2016-03-01

    Pain management with opioids is an integral part of palliative medicine. As the doses and durations of opioid therapy increase, the inherent risks of opioid therapy rise. Although opioids are effective analgesics, they bring with them complex medical and psychological side effects. Aberrant behavior is dangerous and can be difficult to identify as it results in a splitting in the goals of treatment between the patient and providers. One effective strategy in preventing that situation is through the early identification of at-risk patients. There are several tools that can help identify patients at higher risk of addiction and aberrant behaviors during opioid therapy. Structured use of these tools in conjunction with the clinic exam, regular follow-up visits, and lab testing can further reduce patient risk and improve success in opioid therapy. This article will review the background behind a structured strategy for opioid risk assessment using the Opioid Risk Tool, SOAPP-R, and DIRE tools. In addition, example aberrant behaviors and follow-up strategies will be reviewed. It will be demonstrated that careful screening and follow-up allow risk factors to be recognized and addressed early.

  15. Silent Aircraft Initiative Concept Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nickol, Craig L.

    2008-01-01

    A risk assessment of the Silent Aircraft Initiative's SAX-40 concept design for extremely low noise has been performed. A NASA team developed a list of 27 risk items, and evaluated the level of risk for each item in terms of the likelihood that the risk would occur and the consequences of the occurrence. The following risk items were identified as high risk, meaning that the combination of likelihood and consequence put them into the top one-fourth of the risk matrix: structures and weight prediction; boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) and inlet design; variable-area exhaust and thrust vectoring; displaced-threshold and continuous descent approach (CDA) operational concepts; cost; human factors; and overall noise performance. Several advanced-technology baseline concepts were created to serve as a basis for comparison to the SAX-40 concept. These comparisons indicate that the SAX-40 would have significantly greater research, development, test, and engineering (RDT&E) and production costs than a conventional aircraft with similar technology levels. Therefore, the cost of obtaining the extremely low noise capability that has been estimated for the SAX-40 is significant. The SAX-40 concept design proved successful in focusing attention toward low noise technologies and in raising public awareness of the issue.

  16. A toolbox for rockfall Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agliardi, F.; Mavrouli, O.; Schubert, M.; Corominas, J.; Crosta, G. B.; Faber, M. H.; Frattini, P.; Narasimhan, H.

    2012-04-01

    Rockfall Quantitative Risk Analysis for mitigation design and implementation requires evaluating the probability of rockfall events, the probability and intensity of impacts on structures (elements at risk and countermeasures), their vulnerability, and the related expected costs for different scenarios. A sound theoretical framework has been developed during the last years both for spatially-distributed and local (i.e. single element at risk) analyses. Nevertheless, the practical application of existing methodologies remains challenging, due to difficulties in the collection of required data and to the lack of simple, dedicated analysis tools. In order to fill this gap, specific tools have been developed in the form of Excel spreadsheets, in the framework of Safeland EU project. These tools can be used by stakeholders, practitioners and other interested parties for the quantitative calculation of rock fall risk through its key components (probabilities, vulnerability, loss), using combinations of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Three tools have been developed, namely: QuRAR (by UNIMIB), VulBlock (by UPC), and RiskNow-Falling Rocks (by ETH Zurich). QuRAR implements a spatially distributed, quantitative assessment methodology of rockfall risk for individual buildings or structures in a multi-building context (urban area). Risk is calculated in terms of expected annual cost, through the evaluation of rockfall event probability, propagation and impact probability (by 3D numerical modelling of rockfall trajectories), and empirical vulnerability for different risk protection scenarios. Vulblock allows a detailed, analytical calculation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete frame buildings to rockfalls and related fragility curves, both as functions of block velocity and the size. The calculated vulnerability can be integrated in other methodologies/procedures based on the risk equation, by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock

  17. 2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

  18. Preliminary Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Canadian Coastlines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leonard, L. J.; Rogers, G. C.; Mazzotti, S.

    2012-12-01

    We present a preliminary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment of Canadian coastlines from local and far-field, earthquake and large landslide sources. Our multifaceted analysis is based on published historical, paleotsunami and paleoseismic data, modelling, and empirical relations between fault area, earthquake magnitude and tsunami runup. We consider geological sources with known tsunami impacts on Canadian coasts (e.g., Cascadia and other Pacific subduction zones; the 1755 Lisbon tsunami source; Atlantic continental slope failures) as well as potential sources with previously unknown impact (e.g., Explorer plate subduction; Caribbean subduction zones; crustal faults). The cumulative estimated tsunami hazard for potentially damaging runup (≥ 1.5 m) of the outer Canadian Pacific coastline is ~40-80% in 50 y, respectively one and two orders of magnitude greater than the outer Atlantic (~1-15%) and the Arctic (< 1%). For larger runup with significant damage potential (≥ 3 m), Pacific hazard is ~10-30% in 50 y, again much larger than both the Atlantic (~1-5%) and Arctic (< 1%). For outer Pacific coastlines, the ≥ 1.5 m runup hazard is dominated by far-field subduction zone sources, but the probability of runup ≥ 3 m is highest for local megathrust sources, particularly the Cascadia subduction zone; potential thrust sources along the Explorer and Queen Charlotte margins may also be significant for the more northern coasts of British Columbia, where there is a lack of known paleo-event data. For the more sheltered inner Pacific coastlines of Juan de Fuca and Georgia Straits, the hazard at both levels is contributed mainly by Cascadia megathrust events. Tsunami hazard on the Atlantic coastline is dominated by poorly-constrained far-field subduction sources; a lesser hazard is posed by near-field continental slope failures similar to the 1929 Grand Banks event. Tsunami hazard on the Arctic coastline is poorly constrained, but is likely dominated by continental

  19. Biostatistics Series Module 8: Assessing Risk

    PubMed Central

    Hazra, Avijit; Gogtay, Nithya

    2017-01-01

    In observational studies, as well as in interventional ones, it is frequently necessary to estimate risk that is the association between an observed outcome or event and exposure to one or more factors that may be contributing to the event. Understanding incidence and prevalence are the starting point in any discussion of risk assessment. Incidence rate uses person-time as the denominator rather than a simple count. Ideally, rates and ratios estimated from samples should be presented with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). To assess the importance of an individual risk factor, it is necessary to compare the risk of the outcome in the exposed group with that in the nonexposed group. A comparison between risks in different groups can be made by examining either their ratio or the difference between them. The 2 × 2 contingency table comes in handy in the calculation of ratios. Odds ratio (OR) is the ratio of the odds of an event in the exposed group, to the odds of the same event in the nonexposed group. It can range from zero to infinity. When the odds of an outcome in the two groups are identical, then the OR equals one. OR >1 indicates exposure increases risk while OR <1 indicates that exposure is protecting against risk. The OR should be presented with its 95% CI to enable more meaningful interpretation – if this interval includes 1, then even a relatively large OR will not carry much weight. The relative risk (RR) denotes the ratio of risk (probability) of event in exposed group to risk of same event in the nonexposed group. Its interpretation is similar (but not identical) to the OR. If the event in question is relatively uncommon, values of OR and RR tend to be similar. Absolute risk reduction (ARR) is a measure of the effectiveness of an intervention with respect to a dichotomous event. It is calculated as proportion experiencing the event in control group minus the proportion experiencing the event in treated group. It is often used to

  20. 77 FR 58590 - Determining Technical Adequacy of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Risk-Informed License...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-09-21

    ... COMMISSION Determining Technical Adequacy of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Risk-Informed License...: LWR Edition,'' Section 19.1, ``Determining the Technical Adequacy of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for... Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Risk-Informed License Amendment Requests After Initial Fuel Load''...

  1. Improving environmental risk assessment of human pharmaceuticals.

    PubMed

    Ågerstrand, Marlene; Berg, Cecilia; Björlenius, Berndt; Breitholtz, Magnus; Brunström, Björn; Fick, Jerker; Gunnarsson, Lina; Larsson, D G Joakim; Sumpter, John P; Tysklind, Mats; Rudén, Christina

    2015-05-05

    This paper presents 10 recommendations for improving the European Medicines Agency's guidance for environmental risk assessment of human pharmaceutical products. The recommendations are based on up-to-date, available science in combination with experiences from other chemical frameworks such as the REACH-legislation for industrial chemicals. The recommendations concern: expanding the scope of the current guideline; requirements to assess the risk for development of antibiotic resistance; jointly performed assessments; refinement of the test proposal; mixture toxicity assessments on active pharmaceutical ingredients with similar modes of action; use of all available ecotoxicity studies; mandatory reviews; increased transparency; inclusion of emission data from production; and a risk management option. We believe that implementation of our recommendations would strengthen the protection of the environment and be beneficial to society. Legislation and guidance documents need to be updated at regular intervals in order to incorporate new knowledge from the scientific community. This is particularly important for regulatory documents concerning pharmaceuticals in the environment since this is a research field that has been growing substantially in the last decades.

  2. Value impact assessment: A preliminary assessment of improvement opportunities at the Quantico Central Heating Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Brambley, M.R.; Weakley, S.A.

    1990-09-01

    This report presents the results of a preliminary assessment of opportunities for improvement at the US Marine Corps (USMC) Quantico, Virginia, Central Heating Plant (CHP). This study is part of a program intended to provide the CHP staff with a computerized Artificial Intelligence (AI) decision support system that will assist in a more efficient, reliable, and safe operation of their plant. As part of the effort to provide the AI decision support system, a team of six scientists and engineers from the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) visited the plant to characterize the conditions and environment of the CHP. This assessment resulted in a list of potential performance improvement opportunities at the CHP. In this report, 12 of these opportunities are discussed and qualitatively analyzed. 70 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.

  3. Preliminary environmental assessment for the Satellite Power System (SPS). Volume 2: Detailed assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    Volume 2 provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of the Satellite Power System (SPS) on the environment in a technically detailed format more suitable for peer review than the executive summary of Vol. 1. It serves to integrate and assimilate information that has appeared in documents referenced herein and to focus on issues that are purely environmental. It discloses the state-of-knowledge as perceived from recently completed DOE-sponsored studies and defines prospective research and study programs that can advance the state-of-knowledge and provide an expanded data base for use in an assessment planned for 1980. Alternatives for research that may be implemented in order to achieve this advancement are also discussed.

  4. Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund: Process for Designing and Conducting Ecological Risk Assessments - Interim Final

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document provides guidance to site managers and Remedial Project Managers who are legally responsible for the management of a site on how to design and conduct technically defensible ecological risk assessments for the Superfund program.

  5. Assessment of the health status in the Massa Lombarda cohort: a preliminary description of the program evaluating cardio-cerebro-vascular disease risk factors and quality of life in an elderly population.

    PubMed

    Nascetti, S; Linarello, S; Scurti, M; Grandi, E; Gaddoni, M; Noera, G; Gaddi, A

    2004-01-01

    The Massa Lombarda program (MLP) is the first step of a European multi-center program, promoted and coordinated from Bologna University's Academic Spin off Health Research and Development, which attempts to manage advanced sanitary research in general population. The instant individual definition (IID) study is the first phase of the program concerning the study of risk factors (RF) and early diagnosis of coronary heart disease (CHD), through a new diagnostic technology called myocardial perfusion scoring system (MPS). The study consists of a longitudinal observational epidemiological investigation of adult population (above 25 years of age) resident in Massa Lombarda (Ravenna), with the survey of social and biological parameters. The elderly part of the population (1000 subjects above 75 years) was submitted to a more complex analysis, as part of the study on health status in European aging populations, aimed at revealing the determinants influencing the healthy aging, and at identifying their impact on mortality,cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity, disability and decline of quality of life. Laboratory analyses were aimed at identifying the following factors: (i) Genetic markers related to pro and anti-inflammatory cytokine- codifying genes. (ii) Oxidative stress-involved molecules,and inflammation-involved genes, and more in general genes involved in the brittleness(iii) (ApoE). Appraising the degree of interaction with non-genetic factors, like measurable immunological markers in the peripheral blood, markers of reactions to oxidative stress,evaluation of metabolic parameters. Moreover, old population is expected to answer the questionnaires for evaluation of the dietary habits, physical activity, self-sufficiency,cognitive ability, motor coordination, perceived stress and social relationships.

  6. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth.

  7. Manitoba Art Assessment Program 1983. Preliminary Report: Test Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Manitoba Dept. of Education, Winnipeg. Curriculum Development Branch.

    A description of scoring procedures and results of student performance on art objectives and actual test items is presented. The purpose of this preliminary report is to provide detailed information on student performance for use by classroom teachers in forming judgments about the instructional program. All data are based on the provincial sample…

  8. Preliminary Validation of a Methodology for Assessing Software Quality

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-07-01

    method is termed the Reliability Prediction System (RePS). The RePS methodology was initially presented in NUREG /GR-0019. The current effort is a...preliminary validation of the RePS methodology with respect to its ability to predict software quality (measured in this report and in NUREG /GR-0019 in terms

  9. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed Central

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a “gold standard” for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  10. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  11. Development of a preliminary relative risk model for evaluating regional ecological conditions in the Delaware River Estuary, USA.

    PubMed

    Iannuzzi, Timothy J; Durda, Judi L; Preziosi, Damian V; Ludwig, David F; Stahl, Ralph G; DeSantis, Amanda A; Hoke, Robert A

    2010-01-01

    Effective environmental management and restoration of urbanized systems such as the Delaware River Estuary requires a holistic understanding of the relative importance of various stressor-related impacts throughout the watershed, both historical and ongoing. To that end, it is important to involve as many stakeholders as possible in the management process and to develop a system for sharing of scientific data and information, as well as effective technical tools for evaluating and disseminating the data needed to make management decisions. In this study, we describe a preliminary assessment that was undertaken to evaluate the relative risks for the variety of stressors currently operating within the Delaware Estuary using a relative risk model (RRM) framework. This model was constructed using existing data and information on the ecological conditions and stressors in the main-stem Delaware River below the head of tide at Trenton, New Jersey, USA. A large database was developed with pertinent data from a variety of library, scientific, and regulatory sources. Data were compiled, reviewed, and characterized before development of the Estuary-specific RRM. Our primary goals and objectives in developing this preliminary RRM for the Estuary were to 1) determine if the RRM framework can be adapted to a large complex estuarine system such as the Delaware River, 2) identify the issues associated with adapting the model framework to the various management issues and regional areas/habitats of the River, 3) help identify data needs and potential refinements that might be needed to more specifically quantify relative stressor risks in various areas and habitats of the Estuary to better inform future management goals/actions by Stakeholders. The key conclusions of our preliminary assessment are 1) a diverse suite of stressors is likely affecting the ecological conditions of the Delaware Estuary, 2) chemical (toxicants/contaminants) and physical (sedimentation, habitat loss

  12. Revisions to US EPA Superfund Risk and Dose Assessment Models and Guidance - 13403

    SciTech Connect

    Walker, Stuart A.

    2013-07-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Superfund program's six Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) internet based calculators for risk and dose assessment at Superfund sites are being revised to reflect better science, revisions to existing exposure scenarios and new scenarios, and changes to match up more closely with the EPA chemical regional screening level calculator. A revised version of the 1999 guidance document that provides an overview for the Superfund risk assessment process at radioactively contaminated sites, 'Radiation Risk Assessment At CERCLA Sites: Q and A', is being completed that will reflect Superfund recommended guidance and other technical documents issued over the past 13 years. EPA is also issuing a series of fact sheets in the document 'Superfund Radiation Risk Assessment: A Community Tool-kit'. This presentation would go over those changes that are expected to be finished by this spring. (authors)

  13. [Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms].

    PubMed

    Costa, Thadeu Estevam Moreira Maramaldo; Dias, Aline Peçanha Muzy; Scheidegger, Erica Miranda Damasio; Marin, Victor Augustus

    2011-01-01

    Since the commercial approve in 1996, the global area of transgenic crops has raised more than 50 times. In the last two decades, governments have been planning strategies and protocols for safety assessment of food and feed genetically modified (GM). Evaluation of food safety should be taken on a case-by-case analysis depending on the specific traits of the modified crops and the changes introduced by the genetic modification, using for this the concept of substantial equivalence. This work presents approaches for the risk assessment of GM food, as well as some problems related with the genetic construction or even with the expression of the inserted gene.

  14. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  15. Assessing the cancer risk from environmental PCBs.

    PubMed Central

    Cogliano, V J

    1998-01-01

    A new approach to assessing the cancer risk from environmental polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) considers both toxicity and environmental processes to make distinctions among environmental mixtures. New toxicity information from a 1996 cancer study of four commercial mixtures strengthens the case that all PCB mixtures can cause cancer, although different mixtures have different potencies. Environmental processes alter PCB mixtures through partitioning, chemical transformation, and preferential bioaccumulation; these processes can increase or decrease toxicity considerably. Bioaccumulated PCBs are of greatest concern because they appear to be more toxic than commercial PCBs and more persistent in the body. The new approach uses toxicity studies of commercial mixtures to develop a range of cancer potency estimates and then considers the effect of environmental processes to choose appropriate values for representative classes of environmental mixtures. Guidance is given for assessing risks from different exposure pathways, less-than-lifetime and early-life exposures, and mixtures containing dioxinlike compounds. PMID:9618347

  16. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    SciTech Connect

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  17. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-11-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  18. The Chornobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Bar`yakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.; Kholosha, V.; Shestopalov, V.

    1999-10-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chornobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chornobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chornobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  19. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-01-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  20. Degraded environments alter prey risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lönnstedt, Oona M; McCormick, Mark I; Chivers, Douglas P

    2012-01-01

    Elevated water temperatures, a decrease in ocean pH, and an increasing prevalence of severe storms have lead to bleaching and death of the hard corals that underpin coral reef ecosystems. As coral cover declines, fish diversity and abundance declines. How degradation of coral reefs affects behavior of reef inhabitants is unknown. Here, we demonstrate that risk assessment behaviors of prey are severely affected by coral degradation. Juvenile damselfish were exposed to visual and olfactory indicators of predation risk in healthy live, thermally bleached, and dead coral in a series of laboratory and field experiments. While fish still responded to visual cues in all habitats, they did not respond to olfactory indicators of risk in dead coral habitats, likely as a result of alteration or degradation of chemical cues. These cues are critical for learning and avoiding predators, and a failure to respond can have dramatic repercussions for survival and recruitment.

  1. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  2. Preliminary Volcano-Hazard Assessment for Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Waythomas, Christopher F.; Dorava, Joseph M.; Miller, Thomas P.; Neal, Christina A.; McGimsey, Robert G.

    1997-01-01

    Redoubt Volcano is a stratovolcano located within a few hundred kilometers of more than half of the population of Alaska. This volcano has erupted explosively at least six times since historical observations began in 1778. The most recent eruption occurred in 1989-90 and similar eruptions can be expected in the future. The early part of the 1989-90 eruption was characterized by explosive emission of substantial volumes of volcanic ash to altitudes greater than 12 kilometers above sea level and widespread flooding of the Drift River valley. Later, the eruption became less violent, as developing lava domes collapsed, forming short-lived pyroclastic flows associated with low-level ash emission. Clouds of volcanic ash had significant effects on air travel as they drifted across Alaska, over Canada, and over parts of the conterminous United States causing damage to jet aircraft. Economic hardships were encountered by the people of south-central Alaska as a result of ash fallout. Based on new information gained from studies of the 1989-90 eruption, an updated assessment of the principal volcanic hazards is now possible. Volcanic hazards from a future eruption of Redoubt Volcano require public awareness and planning so that risks to life and property are reduced as much as possible.

  3. Depression in primary care: assessing suicide risk

    PubMed Central

    Ng, Chung Wai Mark; How, Choon How; Ng, Yin Ping

    2017-01-01

    Major depression is a common condition seen in the primary care setting. This article describes the suicide risk assessment of a depressed patient, including practical aspects of history-taking, consideration of factors in deciding if a patient requires immediate transfer for inpatient care and measures to be taken if the patient is not hospitalised. It follows on our earlier article about the approach to management of depression in primary care. PMID:28210741

  4. Point Judith, Rhode Island, Breakwater Risk Assessment

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-08-01

    cycle of storm events includes both the extreme damaging events as well as the operational events that limit safe navigation. 2.5 Wave and water ...compared to the as-built condition is unknown. This report provides a summary of a life- cycle risk assessment of the Point Judith Main breakwater. The... water level climate, probabilistic characteristics of the historical wave and water level climate, simulated breakwater damage and wave overtopping

  5. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    PubMed

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  6. Ecological risk assessment benefits environmental management

    SciTech Connect

    Fairbrother, A.; Kapustka, L.A.; Williams, B.A.; Glicken, J.

    1994-12-31

    The ecological risk assessment process in its ideal form is an unbiased approach for assessing the probability of harm to the environment as a consequence of a given action. This information can then be combined with other societal values and biases in the management of such risks. However, as the process currently is understood, decision makers often are accused of manipulating information in order to generate decisions or achieve buy in from the public in support of a particular political agenda. A clear understanding of the nature of the risk management process can help define areas where information should be free from social or personal bias, and areas where values and judgments are critical. The authors do not propose to discuss the individual`s decision-making process, but rather to address the social process of risk communication and environmentally-related decision-making, identifying which parts of that process require bias-free, scientifically generated information about the consequences of various actions and which parts need an understanding of the social values which underlie the informed choices among those possible actions.

  7. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  8. Real-Time Fall Risk Assessment Using Functional Reach Test

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Brian; Allen, Brandon; True, Hanna; Cho, Jin; Harris, Austin; Fell, Nancy

    2017-01-01

    Falls are common and dangerous for survivors of stroke at all stages of recovery. The widespread need to assess fall risk in real time for individuals after stroke has generated emerging requests for a reliable, inexpensive, quantifiable, and remote clinical measure/tool. In order to meet these requests, we explore the Functional Reach Test (FRT) for real-time fall risk assessment and implement the FRT function in mStroke, a real-time and automatic mobile health system for poststroke recovery and rehabilitation. mStroke is designed, developed, and delivered as an Application (App) running on a hardware platform consisting of an iPad and one or two wireless body motion sensors based on different mobile health functions. The FRT function in mStroke is extensively tested on healthy human subjects to verify its concept and feasibility. Preliminary performance will be presented to justify the further exploration of the FRT function in mStroke through clinical trials on individuals after stroke, which may guide its ubiquitous exploitation in the near future. PMID:28167961

  9. 49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Risk Assessment Criteria B Appendix B to Part 236... B to Part 236—Risk Assessment Criteria The safety-critical performance of each product for which risk assessment is required under this part must be assessed in accordance with the following...

  10. 49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Risk Assessment Criteria B Appendix B to Part 236... B to Part 236—Risk Assessment Criteria The safety-critical performance of each product for which risk assessment is required under this part must be assessed in accordance with the following...

  11. Probabilistic Anthrax Risk Assessment Tool v. 1.0

    SciTech Connect

    Knowlton, Robert; Hubbard, Josh

    2016-07-14

    PARAT is a human health risk assessment tool for quantifying the uncertainty associated with inhalational exposures to Bacillus anthracis (Ba), which is the causative agent for contracting anthrax. The tool has a unique set of aerosol transport algorithms to account for indoor-outdoor deposition, re-aerosolization, building infiltration/exfiltration, and ventilation system effects, all of which are coded to preserve mass. PARAT is currently implemented within a Microsoft Excel application along with the Crystal Ball third-party add-on software that provides a Monte Carlo simulation technique for quantifying uncertainty in model predictions. The tool predicts both air and surface concentrations, as well as the fraction of the population that would contract a lethal dose from exposure to Ba. The tool can be used by decision makers to support Preliminary Remediaiton Goals (PRGs) to guide sampling and decontamination decisions after a release of Ba. Currently the de facto standard for recovery from a Ba release is a sampling protocol whereby all of the surface samples sent to a laboratory have to meet the requirement of “no culturable growth” on the media. This could lead to some very costly cleanups, as was evidenced following the 2001 anthrax letter attack responses. So PARAT may provide decision makers and risk assessors the ability to negotiate risk-based endpoints for the recovery process.

  12. Risk assessment of CST-7 proposed waste treatment and storage facilities Volume I: Limited-scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of proposed CST-7 waste treatment & storage facilities. Volume II: Preliminary hazards analysis of proposed CST-7 waste storage & treatment facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Sasser, K.

    1994-06-01

    In FY 1993, the Los Alamos National Laboratory Waste Management Group [CST-7 (formerly EM-7)] requested the Probabilistic Risk and Hazards Analysis Group [TSA-11 (formerly N-6)] to conduct a study of the hazards associated with several CST-7 facilities. Among these facilities are the Hazardous Waste Treatment Facility (HWTF), the HWTF Drum Storage Building (DSB), and the Mixed Waste Receiving and Storage Facility (MWRSF), which are proposed for construction beginning in 1996. These facilities are needed to upgrade the Laboratory`s storage capability for hazardous and mixed wastes and to provide treatment capabilities for wastes in cases where offsite treatment is not available or desirable. These facilities will assist Los Alamos in complying with federal and state requlations.

  13. Offshore blowouts, data for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Holand, P.

    1995-12-31

    Blowouts are, besides gas leakages, the major contributor to the total risk for offshore installations. Therefore, the blowout risk is always included in Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) of offshore installations in the Norwegian Sector of the North Sea. SINTEF Offshore Blowout Database has existed since 1984 (until 1990 it was called Marintek`s blowout database). In 1990 the responsibility of the database was transferred to SINTEF Safety and Reliability. Throughout these years the database has been used for assessing blowout risk associated to development and operation of fields offshore Norway. Six oil companies and two consultants are presently sponsoring the database. These companies are using the database when performing risk analyses. During the past three years the database has been subjected to a thorough quality improvement, both with respect to the user interface, and most important, regarding the blowout data included in the database. What is unique with this database, besides the high quality of blowout descriptions, is first that the blowout causes are categorized related to loss of primary and secondary barriers. Secondly that the user interface makes it possible to establish searches to withdraw information regarding any blowout type subjected for specific searches.

  14. Suicide risk assessment and suicide risk formulation: essential components of the therapeutic risk management model.

    PubMed

    Silverman, Morton M

    2014-09-01

    Suicide and other suicidal behaviors are often associated with psychiatric disorders and dysfunctions. Therefore, psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-risk individuals and offer treatment to reduce that risk. Although a suicide risk assessment is a core competency requirement, many clinical psychiatrists lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide risk. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide risk formulation sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. Based on data collected via a suicide risk assessment, a suicide risk formulation is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable risk of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment planning, and interventions to reduce risk. This paper addresses the components of this process in the context of the model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient developed at the Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) 19 Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center by Wortzel et al.

  15. Project Fox: Assessing Risks Posed By Asteroids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhardt, J.; Chen, X.; Liu, W.; Manchev, P.; Paté-Cornell, M.

    2013-12-01

    In order to make decisions on how to invest limited research dollars on asteroid surveillance and mitigation options, an analytic understanding of the risks posed by impacts is necessary. Qualitative and quantitative studies have been performed to assess such risks, and some reasonable point estimates have been proposed. However, since consequential asteroid impacts tend to be rare events, point estimates and expected annual death rates do not adequately convey the heavy tail of the distribution, potentially leading to misguided resource allocations. We propose and develop a framework for new risk measures, including a distribution over the number of fatalities from asteroid impacts and the probability of a globally consequential impact. We implement a simulation of asteroid impacts using probabilistic inputs for impactor characteristics, and a Poisson process for asteroid arrivals over the next 100 years. Simulation results indicate that a significant portion of the risk to humans comes from asteroids in the 300-1000 meter diameter range; this is because asteroid impacts in this range can produce global effects, and are more frequent than those from asteroids greater than 1km in diameter. The relative importance of this size regime in overall asteroid impact risk is robust in simulation results, and we find the magnitude of risks is still sensitive to factors that contribute global effects from an asteroid impact. Initial results are provided on the sensitivity of impact risks to various mitigation measures, including 'civil defense' methods. These results underscore the need for next-generation survey missions, and can help provide the basis for setting future space telescope observation requirements.

  16. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  17. Preliminary tsunami hazard assessment in British Columbia, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Insua, T. L.; Grilli, A. R.; Grilli, S. T.; Shelby, M. R.; Wang, K.; Gao, D.; Cherniawsky, J. Y.; Harris, J. C.; Heesemann, M.; McLean, S.; Moran, K.

    2015-12-01

    Ocean Networks Canada (ONC), a not-for-profit initiative by the University of Victoria that operates several cabled ocean observatories, is developing a new generation of ocean observing systems (referred to as Smart Ocean Systems™), involving advanced undersea observation technologies, data networks and analytics. The ONC Tsunami project is a Smart Ocean Systems™ project that addresses the need for a near-field tsunami detection system for the coastal areas of British Columbia. Recent studies indicate that there is a 40-80% probability over the next 50 for a significant tsunami impacting the British Columbia (BC) coast with runups higher than 1.5 m. The NEPTUNE cabled ocean observatory, operated by ONC off of the west coast of British Columbia, could be used to detect near-field tsunami events with existing instrumentation, including seismometers and bottom pressure recorders. As part of this project, new tsunami simulations are underway for the BC coast. Tsunami propagation is being simulated with the FUNWAVE-TVD model, for a suite of new source models representing Cascadia megathrust rupture scenarios. Simulations are performed by one-way coupling in a series of nested model grids (from the source to the BC coast), whose bathymetry was developed based on digital elevation maps (DEMs) of the area, to estimate both tsunami arrival time and coastal runup/inundation for different locations. Besides inundation, maps of additional parameters such as maximum current are being developed, that will aid in tsunami hazard assessment and risk mitigation, as well as developing evacuation plans. We will present initial results of this work for the Port Alberni inlet, in particular Ucluelet, based on new source models developed using the best available data. We will also present a model validation using measurements of the 2011 transpacific Tohoku-oki tsunami recorded in coastal BC by several instruments from various US and Canadian agencies.

  18. Asteroid Airbursts: Risk Assessment and Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2015-12-01

    Airbursts are events in which small (meters to tens-of-meters in diameter) asteroids deposit most of their energy in the atmosphere with a total energy greater than small nuclear explosions (>0.1 kilotons of TNT). The airburst risk is higher than previous assessments for two reasons. First, they are more frequent than previously thought. The Tunguska-class (~40 meters) population estimate has doubled, and Chelyabinsk-class (~20 meters) has increased by a factor of 2.6. Second, asteroid airbursts are significantly more damaging than previously assumed. In most cases, they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions of the same yield. Past Near-Earth Object (NEO) risk assessments concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population but the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from low-probability, high-consequence events is large. Nearly 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course, have been catalogued. This has reduced their assessed near-term statistical risk by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from small objects would therefore be increasing even if their absolute assessed risk were not. Uncertainty in the number of small NEOs remains large and can only be reduced by expanded surveys. One strategy would be to count small NEOs making close passes in statistically significant numbers. For example, there are about 25 times as many objects of a given size that pass within the distance of geosynchronous orbit than collide with the earth, and 2000 times as many pass within a lunar distance (accounting for gravitational focusing). An asteroid the size of the Chelyabinsk impactor (~20 m) could potentially be observed within geosynchronous orbit every two years and within lunar orbit nearly once a week. A Tunguska-sized asteroid (~40 m) passes within a

  19. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    SciTech Connect

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In Section 2 we provide context for this report

  20. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  1. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  2. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  3. Workshop overview: Arsenic research and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Sams, Reeder Wolf, Douglas C.; Ramasamy, Santhini; Ohanian, Ed; Chen, Jonathan; Lowit, Anna

    2007-08-01

    The chronic exposure of humans through consumption of high levels of inorganic arsenic (iAs)-contaminated drinking water is associated with skin lesions, peripheral vascular disease, hypertension, and cancers. Additionally, humans are exposed to organic arsenicals when used as pesticides and herbicides (e.g., monomethylarsonic acid, dimethylarsinic acid (DMA{sup V}) also known as cacodylic acid). Extensive research has been conducted to characterize the adverse health effects that result from exposure to iAs and its metabolites to describe the biological pathway(s) that lead to adverse health effects. To further this effort, on May 31, 2006, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) sponsored a meeting entitled 'Workshop on Arsenic Research and Risk Assessment'. The invited participants from government agencies, academia, independent research organizations and consultants were asked to present their current research. The overall focus of these research efforts has been to determine the potential human health risks due to environmental exposures to arsenicals. Pursuant in these efforts is the elucidation of a mode of action for arsenicals. This paper provides a brief overview of the workshop goals, regulatory context for arsenical research, mode of action (MOA) analysis in human health risk assessment, and the application of MOA analysis for iAs and DMA{sup V}. Subsequent papers within this issue will present the research discussed at the workshop, ensuing discussions, and conclusions of the workshop.

  4. Satellite Power Systems (SPS): Concept development and evaluation program: Preliminary assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    A preliminary assessment of a potential Satellite Power System (SPS) is provided. The assessment includes discussion of technical and economic feasibility; the effects of microwave power transmission beams on biological, ecological, and electromagnetic systems; the impact of SPS construction, deployment, and operations on the biosphere and on society; and the merits of SPS compared to other future energy alternatives.

  5. PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENTS OF SPATIAL INFLUENCES IN THE AMBOS NOGALES REGION OF THE US-MEXICAN BORDER

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ambient air measurements collected from 1994 to 1995 were used in a preliminary assessment of potential source and spatial influences in the Ambos Nogales border region (Nogales, Arizona, USA and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico). In this assessment, volatile organic compounds (VOC) and...

  6. [Thinking on risk assessment and risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    PubMed

    Yu, Xueqing; Xie, Yanming; Wang, Yongyan

    2012-01-01

    Drug risk assessment and management is an important measure for reducing the adverse drug reaction and enhancing medication safety of the patient. Based on the concepts of drug risk assessment and risk management, and domestic and international drug risk management situation, this paper discusses the risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine.

  7. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  8. INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT - RESULTS FROM AN INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

    EPA Science Inventory

    The WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety and international partners have developed a framework for integrated assessment of human health and ecological risks and four case studies. An international workshop was convened to consider how ecological and health risk assess...

  9. Preliminary environmental assessment for the Satellite Power System (SPS). Revision 1. Volume 2. Detailed assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is considering several options for generating electrical power to meet future energy needs. The satellite power system (SPS), one of these options, would collect solar energy through a system of satellites in space and transfer this energy to earth. A reference system has been described that would convert the energy to microwaves and transmit the microwave energy via directive antennas to large receiving/rectifying antennas (rectennas) located on the earth. At the rectennas, the microwave energy would be converted into electricity. The potential environmental impacts of constructing and operating the satellite power system are being assessed as a part of the Department of Energy's SPS Concept Development and Evaluation Program. This report is Revision I of the Preliminary Environmental Assessment for the Satellite Power System published in October 1978. It refines and extends the 1978 assessment and provides a basis for a 1980 revision that will guide and support DOE recommendations regarding future SPS development. This is Volume 2 of two volumes. It contains the technical detail suitable for peer review and integrates information appearing in documents referenced herein. The key environmental issues associated with the SPS concern human health and safety, ecosystems, climate, and electromagnetic systems interactions. In order to address these issues in an organized manner, five tasks are reported: (I) microwave-radiation health and ecological effects; (II) nonmicrowave health and ecological effectss; (III) atmospheric effects; (IV) effects on communication systems due to ionospheric disturbance; and (V) electromagnetic compatibility. (WHK)

  10. Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

  11. Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

  12. Dosimetry and Risk Assessment: Fundamental Concepts

    SciTech Connect

    Fisher, Darrell R.

    2005-12-29

    Radiation dosimetry is important for characterizing radiation exposures and for risk assessment. In a medical setting, dosimetry is important for evaluating the safety of administered radiopharmaceuticals and for planning the safe administration of therapeutic radionuclides. Environmental dosimetry helps establish the safety of radionuclide releases from electric power production and other human activities. Internal and external dosimetry help us understand the consequences of radiation exposure. The absorbed dose is the fundamental quantity in radiation dosimetry from which all other operational values in radiation protection are obtained. Equivalent dose to tissue and effective dose to the whole body are derivatives of absorbed dose and constructs of risk. Mathematical systems supported by computer software facilitate dose calculations and make it possible to estimate internal dose based on bioassay or other biokinetic data. Risk coefficients for radiation-induced cancer rely primarily on data from animal studies and long-term observations of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bomb survivors. Low-dose research shows that mechanisms of radiation interactions with tissue are dose-dependent, but the resulting biological effects are not necessarily linear with absorbed dose. Thus, the analysis of radiation effects and associated risks must account for the influences of microscopic energy distributions at the cellular level, dose-rate, cellular repair of sub-lethal radiation damage, and modifying factors such as bystander effects, adaptive response, and genomic instability.

  13. Harmonization of international risk assessment protocol.

    PubMed

    Toyofuku, Hajime

    2006-01-01

    For over centuries developments in food production and new food safety management systems in most developed countries have been perceived by many to be efficient in the prevention of food-borne disease. Nevertheless a number of problems remain dominant, one of these being the high level of food-borne microbiological disease which seems, for some pathogens, to have increased over the last decades. The development of an interdisciplinary approach with direct interaction between surveillance and risk analysis systems is described as a potential basis for improved prevention of food-borne disease. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment is a relatively new scientific approach, able to link data from food within the entire food chain and the various data on human disease to provide a clear estimation of risk. Today food safety is one of the WHOs top eleven priorities; the Organization calls for more systematic and aggressive steps to be taken to reduce significantly the risk of microbiological food-borne diseases. Dealing with this challenge is one of the major challenges for the 21st century in regard to food safety, implying a significant re-direction of food microbiology efforts in many parts of the world.

  14. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients: a comparison of commonly used risk scoring programs.

    PubMed

    Ulusoy, Sükrü

    2013-12-01

    Several calculation modalities are used today for cardiovascular risk assessment. Cardiovascular risk assessment should be performed in all hypertensive patients. Risk assessment methods being based on the population in which the patient lives and the inclusion of factors such as ethnicity variations, socioeconomic status, and medication use will contribute to improvements in risk assessments. The results should be shared with the patient, and modifiable risk factors must be effectively treated.

  15. Health risk assessment of irradiated topaz

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, J.W.; Baum, J.W.

    1993-01-01

    Irradiated topaz gemstones are currently processed for color improvement by subjecting clear stones to neutron or high-energy electron irradiations, which leads to activation of trace elements in the stones. Assessment of the risk to consumers required the identification and quantification of the resultant radionuclides and the attendant exposure. Representative stones from Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sri Lanka were irradiated and analyzed for gamma ray and beta particle emissions, using sodium iodide and germanium spectrometers; and Geiger-Muller, plastic and liquid scintillation, autoradiography, and thermoluminescent-dosimetry measurement techniques. Based on these studies and other information derived from published literature, dose and related risk estimates were made for typical user conditions. New criteria and methods for routine assays for acceptable release, based on gross beta and gross photon emissions from the stones, were also developed.

  16. Risk assessment of soybean-based phytoestrogens.

    PubMed

    Kwack, Seung Jun; Kim, Kyu-Bong; Kim, Hyung Sik; Yoon, Kyung Sil; Lee, Byung Mu

    2009-01-01

    Koreans generally consume high quantities of soybean-based foods that contain a variety of phytoestrogens, such as, daidzein, zenistein, and biochalin A. However, phytoestrogens are considered to be potential endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDC), which interfere with the normal function of the hormonal and reproductive systems. Therefore, dietary exposure to soybean-based phytoestrogens is of concern for Koreans, and comparative dietary risk assessments are required between Japanese (high consumers) versus Americans (low consumers). In this study, a relative risk assessment was conducted based upon daily intake levels of soybean-based foods and phytoestrogens in a Korean cohort, and the risks of photoestrogens were compared with those posed by estradiol and other EDC. Koreans approximately 30-49 yr of age consume on average a total of 135.2 g/d of soy-based foods including soybean, soybean sauce, soybean paste, and soybean oil, and 0.51 mg/kg body weight (bw)/d of phytoestrogens such as daidzein and genistein. Using estimated daily intakes (EDI) and estrogenic potencies (EP), margins of safety (MOS) were calculated where 0.05 is for estradiol (MOS value <1, considered to exert a positive estrogenic effect); thus, MOS values of 1.89 for Japanese, 1.96 for Koreans, and 5.55 for Americans indicate that consumption of soybean-based foods exerted no apparent estrogenic effects, as all MOS values were all higher than 1. For other synthetic EDC used as reference values, MOS values were dieldrin 27, nonylphenol 250, butyl benzyl phthalate 321, bisphenol A 1000, biochanin A 2203, and coumesterol 2898. These results suggest that dietary exposure to phytoestrogens, such as daidzein and genistein, poses a relatively higher health risk for humans than synthetic EDC, although MOS values were all greater than 1.

  17. Twenty Years of Progress in Violence Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanson, R. Karl

    2005-01-01

    Violence risk assessment has advanced considerably in the last 20 years. In the 1980s, leading professionals questioned the very possibility of valid violence risk assessments; now, many of the major risk factors have been identified, and professional debate focuses on how best to combine these risk factors into meaningful evaluations. An…

  18. Preliminary report on the ecological assessment of Waste Area Grouping 5 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect

    Ashwood, T.L.; Suter, G.W. II; Stewart, A.J.

    1992-09-01

    In support of the remedial investigation for Waste Area Grouping (WAG) 5, staff of the Environmental Sciences Division of Oak Ridge National Laboratory have conducted preliminary ecological assessment activities. A screening level ecological risk assessment has been completed, ambient toxicity tests have been conducted on streams and seeps within WAG 5, WAG 5 has been surveyed for rare and endangered species and wetlands, and wild turkeys that may feed on contaminated vegetation and insects in WAG 5 have been screened for beta-emitting isotopes and [sup 137]Cs. The screening-level ecological risk assessment identified some data gaps that were addressed in the ecological assessment plan. These include gaps in data on the toxicity of surface water and soil within WAG 5 and on the status of rare and endangered species. In addition, the screening-level risk assessment identified the need for data on the level of contaminants in wild turkeys that may be consumed by predatory wildlife and humans. Three rounds of ambient toxicity tests on six streams and seeps, using the microcrustacean Ceriodaphnia, have identified potential toxicity in three of the sample sites. Further tests are required to identify the toxicant. No rare or endangered animal species have been identified in the WAG 5 area.

  19. 78 FR 23901 - Interagency Risk Assessment-Listeria monocytogenes

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-04-23

    ... Food Safety and Inspection Service Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail... risk assessment (QRA), ``Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens... and on the FSIS Web site at http://www.fsis.usda.gov/PDF/Listeria-Transcript_062309.pdf ). II....

  20. Laboratory Biosafety and Biosecurity Risk Assessment Technical Guidance Document

    SciTech Connect

    Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M; Caskey, Susan Adele

    2014-07-01

    The purpose of this document is threefold: 1) to describe the laboratory bio safety and biosecurity risk assessment process and its conceptual framework; 2) provide detailed guidance and suggested methodologies on how to conduct a risk assessment; and 3) present some practical risk assessment process strategies using realistic laboratory scenarios.

  1. Assessing risk of solid waste compost

    SciTech Connect

    Dyer, J.M.; Razvi, A.S. )

    1987-03-01

    This paper addresses the movement of metals in soils and their accumulation in plants. Research with sewage sludge compost indicates that these risks can be minimized with proper handling and management. The objectives of this study were: (I) to evaluate potential groundwater contamination due to plant nutrients and heavy metals in the compost; and (II) to assess the accumulation of metals in plants grown on compost-amended soil. Data are presented for analyses of nickel, lead, cadmium, copper and zinc in snap beans.

  2. Command hallucinations, compliance, and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hersh, K; Borum, R

    1998-01-01

    Command hallucinations are auditory hallucinations that instruct a patient to act in specific ways; these commands can range in seriousness from innocuous to life-threatening. This article summarizes two areas of research regarding command hallucinations: rates of compliance with command hallucinations; and factors associated with compliance. Researchers have reported rates of compliance ranging from 39.2 percent to 88.5 percent. Compliance has not been consistently related to dangerousness of commands. Instead, research suggests that Individuals are more likely to comply with commands if they recognize the hallucinated voice and if their hallucinations are related to a delusion. Implications for risk assessment are discussed in light of the research.

  3. Session: Pre-development project risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Curry, Richard; Linehan, Andy

    2004-09-01

    This second session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of two presentations followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The focus of the presentations was on the practices and methodologies used in the wind energy industry for assessing risk to birds and bats at candidate project sites. Presenters offered examples of pre-development siting evaluation requirements set by certain states. Presentation one was titled ''Practices and Methodologies and Initial Screening Tools'' by Richard Curry of Curry and Kerlinger, LLC. Presentation two was titled ''State of the Industry in the Pacific Northwest'' by Andy Linehan, CH2MHILL.

  4. Anthropometry in cardio-metabolic risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Mišigoj-Duraković, Marjeta; Sorić, Maroje; Duraković, Zijad

    2014-03-01

    High prevalence of obesity, as a major public health problem, is connected with chronic cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. That is why some simple anthropometric parameters were developed to estimate overweight and obesity, and in the primary screening of risk groups. In this field, body mass index (BMI) is the most frequent parameter, both in epidemiological research and in everyday practice. It is a part of the algorithm used in the early detection of overweight and obese persons. However, BMI does not provide any data on body composition. This is why it is particularly insufficient in estimating body mass in physically active persons and in athletes who are often overweight, with a higher proportion of lean body mass but without any excess fat, as well as in those with normal weight but lower than normal lean body mass and/ or gentle skeleton. Over the last few decades, attention has been especially directed to different body fat distribution in relation to chronic cardio-vascular and metabolic diseases. Waist circumference (WC) is the best anthropometric predictor of cardiovascular risk. It is considered an indirect parameter of visceral fat. WC and waist-to-hip ratio are good parameters showing body fat distribution and cardio-metabolic risk. Waist-to-height ratio is suggested by some authors to be an even better parameter of cardio-vascular risk and metabolic syndrome. Hypertriglyceridemia combined with increased WC is considered a marker of atherogenic metabolic risk. The paper also deals with procedures of body composition analysis. Anthropometric assessment of body composition analysis belongs to a group of simple and inexpensive procedures. Development of generalised equations for body density prediction introduced anthropometric methods in the analysis of body composition in everyday practice.

  5. NEUROBEHAVIORAL TESTING IN HUMAN RISK ASSESSMENT

    PubMed Central

    Rohlman, Diane S.; Lucchini, Roberto; Anger, W. Kent; Bellinger, David C.; van Thriel, Christoph

    2008-01-01

    Neurobehavioral tests are being increasingly used in human risk assessment and there is a strong need for guidance. The field of neurobehavioral toxicology has evolved from research which initially focused on using traditional neuropsychological tests to identify “abnormal cases” to include methods used to detect sub-clinical deficits, to further incorporate the use of neurosensory assessment, and to expand testing from occupational populations to vulnerable populations including older adults and children. Even as exposures in the workplace are reduced, they have been increasing in the environment and research on exposure has now expanded to cross the entire lifetime. These neurobehavioral methods are applied in research and the findings used for regulatory purposes to develop preventative action for exposed populations. This paper reflects a summary of the talks presented at the symposium presented at the 11th meeting of the International Neurotoxicology Association. PMID:18539229

  6. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    PubMed

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  7. High risk cohort study for psychiatric disorders in childhood: rationale, design, methods and preliminary results.

    PubMed

    Salum, Giovanni Abrahão; Gadelha, Ary; Pan, Pedro Mario; Moriyama, Tais Silveira; Graeff-Martins, Ana Soledade; Tamanaha, Ana Carina; Alvarenga, Pedro; Valle Krieger, Fernanda; Fleitlich-Bilyk, Bacy; Jackowski, Andrea; Sato, João Ricardo; Brietzke, Elisa; Polanczyk, Guilherme Vanoni; Brentani, Helena; de Jesus Mari, Jair; Do Rosário, Maria Conceição; Manfro, Gisele Gus; Bressan, Rodrigo Affonseca; Mercadante, Marcos Tomanik; Miguel, Eurípedes Constantino; Rohde, Luis Augusto

    2015-03-01

    The objective of this study is to present the rationale, methods, design and preliminary results from the High Risk Cohort Study for the Development of Childhood Psychiatric Disorders. We describe the sample selection and the components of each phases of the study, its instruments, tasks and procedures. Preliminary results are limited to the baseline phase and encompass: (i) the efficacy of the oversampling procedure used to increase the frequency of both child and family psychopathology; (ii) interrater reliability and (iii) the role of differential participation rate. A total of 9937 children from 57 schools participated in the screening procedures. From those 2512 (random = 958; high risk = 1554) were further evaluated with diagnostic instruments. The prevalence of any child mental disorder in the random strata and high-risk strata was 19.9% and 29.7%. The oversampling procedure was successful in selecting a sample with higher family rates of any mental disorders according to diagnostic instruments. Interrater reliability (kappa) for the main diagnostic instrument range from 0.72 (hyperkinetic disorders) to 0.84 (emotional disorders). The screening instrument was successful in selecting a sub-sample with "high risk" for developing mental disorders. This study may help advance the field of child psychiatry and ultimately provide useful clinical information.

  8. Assessments of direct human exposure: the approach of EU risk assessments compared to scenario-based risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wormuth, Matthias; Demou, Evangelia; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2007-08-01

    The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high-production-volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario-based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst-case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.

  9. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  10. Cyanide analyses for risk and treatability assessments

    SciTech Connect

    MacFarlane, I.D.; Elseroad, H.J.; Pergrin, D.E.; Logan, C.M.

    1994-12-31

    Cyanide, an EPA priority pollutant and target analyte, is typically measured as total. However, cyanide complexation, information which is not acquired through total cyanide analysis, is often a driver of cyanide toxicity and treatability. A case study of a former manufacture gas plant (MGP) is used to demonstrate the usability of various cyanide analytical methods for risk and treatability assessments. Several analytical methods, including cyanide amenable to chlorination and weak acid dissociable cyanide help test the degree of cyanide complexation. Generally, free or uncomplexed cyanide is more biologically available, toxic, and reactive than complexed cyanide. Extensive site testing has shown that free and weakly dissociable cyanide composes only a small fraction of total cyanide as would be expected from the literature, and that risk assessment will be more realistic considering cyanide form. Likewise, aqueous treatment for cyanide can be properly tested if cyanide form is accounted for. Weak acid dissociable cyanide analyses proved to be the most reliable (and potentially acceptable) cyanide method, as well as represent the most toxic and reactive cyanide forms.

  11. Hydrogen quantitative risk assessment workshop proceedings.

    SciTech Connect

    Groth, Katrina M.; Harris, Aaron P.

    2013-09-01

    The Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) Toolkit Introduction Workshop was held at Energetics on June 11-12. The workshop was co-hosted by Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and HySafe, the International Association for Hydrogen Safety. The objective of the workshop was twofold: (1) Present a hydrogen-specific methodology and toolkit (currently under development) for conducting QRA to support the development of codes and standards and safety assessments of hydrogen-fueled vehicles and fueling stations, and (2) Obtain feedback on the needs of early-stage users (hydrogen as well as potential leveraging for Compressed Natural Gas [CNG], and Liquefied Natural Gas [LNG]) and set priorities for %E2%80%9CVersion 1%E2%80%9D of the toolkit in the context of the commercial evolution of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). The workshop consisted of an introduction and three technical sessions: Risk Informed Development and Approach; CNG/LNG Applications; and Introduction of a Hydrogen Specific QRA Toolkit.

  12. Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, Scott L.; Gee, Ken; Mathias, Donovan; Olsen, Michael

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

  13. Actuarial assessment of risk among sex offenders.

    PubMed

    Harris, Grant T; Rice, Marnie E

    2003-06-01

    The appraisal of risk among sex offenders has seen recent advances through the advent of actuarial assessments. Statistics derived from Relative Operating Characteristics (ROCs) permit the comparison of predictive accuracies achieved by different instruments even among samples that exhibit different base rates of recidivism. Such statistics cannot, however, solve problems introduced when items from actuarial tools are omitted, when reliability is low, or when there is high between-subject variability in the duration of the follow-up. We present empirical evidence suggesting that when comprehensive actuarial tools (VRAG and SORAG) are scored with high reliability, without missing items, and when samples of offenders have fixed and equal opportunity for recidivism, predictive accuracies are maximized near ROC areas of 0.90. Although the term "dynamic" has not been consistently defined, such accuracies leave little room for further improvement in long-term prediction by dynamic risk factors. We address the mistaken idea that long-term, static risk levels have little relevance for clinical intervention with sex offenders. We conclude that highly accurate prediction of violent criminal recidivism can be achieved by means of highly reliable and thorough scoring of comprehensive multi-item actuarial tools using historical items (at least until potent therapies are identified). The role of current moods, attitudes, insights, and physiological states in causing contemporaneous behavior notwithstanding, accurate prediction about which sex offenders will commit at least one subsequent violent offense can be accomplished using complete information about past conduct.

  14. Classification accuracy of actuarial risk assessment instruments.

    PubMed

    Neller, Daniel J; Frederick, Richard I

    2013-01-01

    Users of commonly employed actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) hope to generate numerical probability statements about risk; however, ARAI manuals often do not explicitly report data that are essential for understanding the classification accuracy of the instruments. In addition, ARAI manuals often contain data that have the potential for misinterpretation. The authors of the present article address the accurate generation of probability statements. First, they illustrate how the reporting of numerical probability statements based on proportions rather than predictive values can mislead users of ARAIs. Next, they report essential test characteristics that, to date, have gone largely unreported in ARAI manuals. Then they discuss a graphing method that can enhance the practice of clinicians who communicate risk via numerical probability statements. After the authors review several strategies for selecting optimal cut-off scores, they show how the graphing method can be used to estimate positive predictive values for each cut-off score of commonly used ARAIs, across all possible base rates. They also show how the graphing method can be used to estimate base rates of violent recidivism in local samples.

  15. Viral factors in influenza pandemic risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Lipsitch, Marc; Barclay, Wendy; Raman, Rahul; Russell, Charles J; Belser, Jessica A; Cobey, Sarah; Kasson, Peter M; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Riley, Steven; Beauchemin, Catherine AA; Bedford, Trevor; Friedrich, Thomas C; Handel, Andreas; Herfst, Sander; Murcia, Pablo R; Roche, Benjamin; Wilke, Claus O; Russell, Colin A

    2016-01-01

    The threat of an influenza A virus pandemic stems from continual virus spillovers from reservoir species, a tiny fraction of which spark sustained transmission in humans. To date, no pandemic emergence of a new influenza strain has been preceded by detection of a closely related precursor in an animal or human. Nonetheless, influenza surveillance efforts are expanding, prompting a need for tools to assess the pandemic risk posed by a detected virus. The goal would be to use genetic sequence and/or biological assays of viral traits to identify those non-human influenza viruses with the greatest risk of evolving into pandemic threats, and/or to understand drivers of such evolution, to prioritize pandemic prevention or response measures. We describe such efforts, identify progress and ongoing challenges, and discuss three specific traits of influenza viruses (hemagglutinin receptor binding specificity, hemagglutinin pH of activation, and polymerase complex efficiency) that contribute to pandemic risk. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18491.001 PMID:27834632

  16. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    SciTech Connect

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-08-26

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  17. Preliminary Benefits Assessment of Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests (TASAR)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Henderson, Jeff; Idris, Husni; Wing, David J.

    2012-01-01

    While en route, aircrews submit trajectory change requests to air traffic control (ATC) to better meet their objectives including reduced delays, reduced fuel burn, and passenger comfort. Aircrew requests are currently made with limited to no information on surrounding traffic. Consequently, these requests are uninformed about a key ATC objective, ensuring traffic separation, and therefore less likely to be accepted than requests informed by surrounding traffic and that avoids creating conflicts. This paper studies the benefits of providing aircrews with on-board decision support to generate optimized trajectory requests that are probed and cleared of known separation violations prior to issuing the request to ATC. These informed requests are referred to as traffic aware strategic aircrew requests (TASAR) and leverage traffic surveillance information available through Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) In capability. Preliminary fast-time simulation results show increased benefits with longer stage lengths since beneficial trajectory changes can be applied over a longer distance. Also, larger benefits were experienced between large hub airports as compared to other airport sizes. On average, an aircraft equipped with TASAR reduced its travel time by about one to four minutes per operation and fuel burn by about 50 to 550 lbs per operation depending on the objective of the aircrew (time, fuel, or weighted combination of time and fuel), class of airspace user, and aircraft type. These preliminary results are based on analysis of approximately one week of traffic in July 2012 and additional analysis is planned on a larger data set to confirm these initial findings.

  18. Preliminary assessment report for Kent National Guard Facility (Installation 53065), 24410 Military Road, Kent, Washington

    SciTech Connect

    Ketels, P.; Aggarwal, P.; Rose, C.M.

    1993-08-01

    This report presents the results of the preliminary assessment (PA) conducted by Argonne National Laboratory at the Washington Army National Guard property in Kent, Washington. Preliminary assessments of federal facilities are being conducted to compile the information necessary for completing preremedial activities and to provide a basis for establishing corrective actions in response to releases of hazardous substances. The principal objective of the PA is to characterize the site accurately and determine the need for further action by examining site activities, quantities of hazardous substances present, and potential pathways by which contamination could affect public health and the environment.

  19. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  20. U.S. EPA Superfund Program's Policy for Risk and Dose Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Walker, Stuart

    2008-01-15

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Superfund Remediation and Technology Innovation (OSRTI) has primary responsibility for implementing the long-term (non-emergency) portion of a key U.S. law regulating cleanup: the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act, CERCLA, nicknamed 'Superfund'. The purpose of the Superfund program is to protect human health and the environment over the long term from releases or potential releases of hazardous substances from abandoned or uncontrolled hazardous waste sites. The focus of this paper is on risk and dose assessment policies and tools for addressing radioactively contaminated sites by the Superfund program. EPA has almost completed two risk assessment tools that are particularly relevant to decommissioning activities conducted under CERCLA authority. These are the: 1. Building Preliminary Remediation Goals for Radionuclides (BPRG) electronic calculator, and 2. Radionuclide Outdoor Surfaces Preliminary Remediation Goals (SPRG) electronic calculator. EPA developed the BPRG calculator to help standardize the evaluation and cleanup of radiologically contaminated buildings at which risk is being assessed for occupancy. BPRGs are radionuclide concentrations in dust, air and building materials that correspond to a specified level of human cancer risk. The intent of SPRG calculator is to address hard outside surfaces such as building slabs, outside building walls, sidewalks and roads. SPRGs are radionuclide concentrations in dust and hard outside surface materials. EPA is also developing the 'Radionuclide Ecological Benchmark' calculator. This calculator provides biota concentration guides (BCGs), also known as ecological screening benchmarks, for use in ecological risk assessments at CERCLA sites. This calculator is intended to develop ecological benchmarks as part of the EPA guidance 'Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund: Process for Designing and Conducting Ecological Risk

  1. Various Assessments Utilized in California Preliminary Administrative Services Preparation Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Erickson, Deborah E.

    2016-01-01

    Every two years, institutions sponsoring credentialing programs in California are required to submit a detailed biennial report, which includes data on at least four key assessments showing 1) candidate competence and/or 2) program efficacy. This article reports the types of assessments used from 25 institutions that completed biennial reports for…

  2. Preliminary Design and Fabrication Assessment for Two Solar Sail Candidates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weis, R.

    1977-01-01

    Primary emphasis is directed to the spinning sail design and fabrication assessment. Several methods of fabricating the spinning sail blades are presented and compared. Evaluations are made of each proposed design, as well as the baseline design. These efforts resulted in the recommendation of an apparent optimum design and fabrication plan with an assessment of the major advantages/disadvantages of each concept considered.

  3. Quantitative risk assessment for zoonotic transmission of Cryptosporidium parvum infection attributable to recreational use of farmland.

    PubMed

    Hill, A; Nally, P; Chalmers, R M; Pritchard, G C; Giles, M

    2011-08-01

    Cryptosporidiosis caused by Cryptosporidium parvum infection is a major cause of enteric illness in man and there is a significant reservoir in animals, particularly young ruminant species. To preliminary assess the magnitude of the risk posed by contact with faeces produced by infected livestock, two microbiological risk assessments have been developed: one for the risk of human infection with C. parvum while camping on contaminated land recently grazed by infected suckler cattle and a comparable risk assessment for camping on land recently spread with contaminated cattle slurry. Using a worst-case scenario approach, the upper level of risk was estimated to be one infection in every 6211 person-visits for a camping event on land recently grazed by infected cattle. Translated into camping events of 100 persons, this risk estimate would most likely lead to zero (98% likelihood) or one infection (1% likelihood). The results for cattle slurry model are similar despite different pathways. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for the grazing cattle model only. This suggested that the time between grazing and camping was the most important control strategy, but increasing hand-washing frequency and the removal of cattle faeces before camping would also be beneficial. If the upper level of risk were to be judged unacceptable then further data would be required to more accurately estimate the risk of infection through these scenarios. Further research would also be required to assess the fraction of cases attributable to camping and/or environmental contact with Cryptosporidium oocysts.

  4. 78 FR 36787 - Rechanneling the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia Risk Assessment During Drug...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-06-19

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Rechanneling the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia... the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia Risk Assessment During Drug Development Without...

  5. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  6. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.; McKenna, S. A.; Hadgu, T.; Kalinina, E.

    2011-12-01

    This study uses a quantitative risk-assessment approach to place the uncertainty associated with enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) development into meaningful context and to identify points of attack that can reduce risk the most. Using the integrated geothermal assessment tool, GT-Mod, we calculate the complimentary cumulative distribution function of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) that results from uncertainty in a variety of geologic and economic input parameter values. EGS is a developing technology that taps deep (2-10km) geologic heat sources for energy production by "enhancing" non-permeable hot rock through hydraulic stimulation. Despite the promise of EGS, uncertainties in predicting the physical end economic performance of a site has hindered its development. To address this, we apply a quantitative risk-assessment approach that calculates risk as the sum of the consequence, C, multiplied by the range of the probability, ΔP, over all estimations of a given exceedance probability, n, over time, t. The consequence here is defined as the deviation from the best estimate LCOE, which is calculated using the 'best-guess' input parameter values. The analysis assumes a realistic but fictitious EGS site with uncertainties in the exploration success rate, the sub-surface thermal gradient, the reservoir fracture pattern, and the power plant performance. Uncertainty in the exploration, construction, O&M, and drilling costs are also included. The depth to the resource is calculated from the thermal gradient and a target resource temperature of 225 °C. Thermal performance is simulated using the Gringarten analytical solution. The mass flow rate is set to produce 30 MWe of power for the given conditions and is adjusted over time to maintain that rate over the plant lifetime of 30 years. Simulations are conducted using GT-Mod, which dynamically links the physical systems of a geothermal site to simulate, as an integrated, multi-system component, the

  7. L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

  8. Relative risk analysis of the use of radiation-emitting medical devices: A preliminary application

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, E.D.

    1996-06-01

    This report describes the development of a risk analysis approach for evaluating the use of radiation-emitting medial devices. This effort was performed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The assessment approach has bee applied to understand the risks in using the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis for developing regulations and quality assurance requirements in the use of nuclear medical devices. The risk approach identifies and assesses the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance for the medical system. The approach uses expert screening techniques and relative risk profiling to incorporate the type, quality, and quantity of data available and to present results in an easily understood form.

  9. Risk-Assessment for Equipment Operating on the Lunar Surface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richmond, R. C.; Kusiak, A.; Ramachandran, N.

    2008-01-01

    Particle-size distribution of lunar dust simulant is evaluated using scanning electron spectroscopy in order to consider approaches to evaluating risk to individual mechanical components operating on the lunar surface. Assessing component risk and risk-mitigation during actual operations will require noninvasive continuous data gathering on numerous parameters. Those data sets would best be evaluated using data-mining algorithms to assess risk, and recovery from risk, of individual mechanical components in real-time.

  10. [Risk assessment of periodontal disease in Hungary].

    PubMed

    Hermann, Péter; Borbély, Judit; Gera, István; Fejérdy, Pál; Soós, Borbála; Madléna, Melinda

    2011-06-01

    In this study, risk determinants were assessed for periodontal disease in the oral health survey of a representative Hungarian adult population sample. 4153 individuals participated in the study after formal consent. Participants were questionned on level of education, dental office attendance, smoking habits, oral hygiene habits and general health conditions. Quality of fixed partial dentures (FPD) were evaluated. Periodontal health status was assessed with the CPI method according to WHO criteria. When the prevalence of CPI scores was assessed by educational level, significant differences were found between groups. With increasing levels of education, a significantly higher percentage of subjects visited the dental office regularly. Higher prevalence of CPI 0 was found among those with higher level of education but there was also high prevalence of CPI 2, representing bad oral hygiene in the highly educated group. Findings of our study showed high percentage (66%) of the population attending the dental office only in case of emergency. The investigation revealed destructive effect of unsatisfactory construction of FPD on the periodontium. Healthy periodontium (CPI 0) was found among 16% of those wearing no FPD and 9% among FPD-wearers. The prevalence of deep periodontal pockets (CPI 4) was 1,6 times higher among smokers as non-smokers. Oral health statistics play an important role in planning for improvement of dental health care. Hungary needs effective prevention programs and emphasize on regular dental office attendance of individuals to improve the nation's oral health status.

  11. A Successful ED Fall Risk Program Using the KINDER 1 Fall RiskAssessment Tool.

    PubMed

    Townsend, Ann B; Valle-Ortiz, Marisol; Sansweet, Tracy

    2016-11-01

    Emergency nurses did not perform falls risk assessments routinely on our ED patients; the instrument used was aimed at inpatients. We identified a need to revise fall assessment practices specific to our emergency department. The purpose of the performance improvement project was to reduce ED falls and evaluate the use of an ED-specific fall risk tool, the KINDER 1 Fall Risk Assessment. The plan was to establish fall risk assessment practices at point of ED entry and to decrease total falls.

  12. Using breast milk to assess breast cancer risk: the role of mass spectrometry-based proteomics.

    PubMed

    Schneider, Sallie S; Aslebagh, Roshanak; Ngounou Wetie, Armand G; Sturgeon, Susan R; Darie, Costel C; Arcaro, Kathleen F

    2014-01-01

    Although mammography and treatment advances have led to declines in breast cancer mortality in the United States, breast cancer remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Breast cancer in young women is associated with increased mortality and current methods of detecting breast cancers in this group of women have known limitations. Tools for accurately assessing personal breast cancer risk in young women are needed to identify those women who would benefit the most from earlier intervention. Proteomic analysis of breast milk could identify biomarkers of breast cancer risk and provide a tool for identifying women at increased risk. A preliminary analysis of milk from four women provides a proof of concept for using breast milk to assess breast cancer risk.

  13. IRIS Toxicological Review of Diisobutyl Phthalate (Dibp) (Preliminary Assessment Materials)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In September 2014, EPA released the draft literature searches and associated search strategies, evidence tables, and exposure response arrays for DIBP to obtain input from stakeholders and the public prior to developing the draft IRIS assessment. Specifically, EPA was interested ...

  14. Enhanced Preliminary Assessment Report: Pontiac Storage Activity, Pontiac, Michigan

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-03-01

    objective of the enhanced PA was to assess the PSA’s present environmental status and the need for any further action required at the site prior to...of this erhanced PA is to assess the PSA’s present environmental status to determine the need for any further action. The enhanced PA involved...if any , of these materials contain asbestos. 3 o Spray-painting was formerly conducted in the maintenance area of Section C of the main facility. A

  15. Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Roskilde University hosted a November 2015 workshop on “Environmental RiskAssessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World”. Thirty attendees from 9 countries developed consensus recommendations regarding: implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process involving both universal and site-, region-, or problem-specific protection goals; addressing societal issues; risk management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. We encourage both cross- and inter-disciplinary approaches to address 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and non-chemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk management process; 5) consider socio-economics and increase transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference con

  16. Nanomaterials: a challenge for toxicological risk assessment?

    PubMed

    Haase, Andrea; Tentschert, Jutta; Luch, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    Nanotechnology has emerged as one of the central technologies in the twenty-first century. This judgment becomes apparent by considering the increasing numbers of people employed in this area; the numbers of patents, of scientific publications, of products on the market; and the amounts of money invested in R&D. Prospects originating from different fields of nanoapplication seem unlimited. However, nanotechnology certainly will not be able to meet all of the ambitious expectations communicated, yet has high potential to heavily affect our daily life in the years to come. This might occur in particular in the field of consumer products, for example, by introducing nanomaterials in cosmetics, textiles, or food contact materials. Another promising area is the application of nanotechnology in medicine fueling hopes to significantly improve diagnosis and treatment of all kinds of diseases. In addition, novel technologies applying nanomaterials are expected to be instrumental in waste remediation and in the production of efficient energy storage devices and thus may help to overcome world's energy problems or to revolutionize computer and data storage technologies. In this chapter, we will focus on nanomaterials. After a brief historic and general overview, current proposals of how to define nanomaterials will be summarized. Due to general limitations, there is still no single, internationally accepted definition of the term "nanomaterial." After elaborating on the status quo and the scope of nanoanalytics and its shortcomings, the current thinking about possible hazards resulting from nanoparticulate exposures, there will be an emphasis on the requirements to be fulfilled for appropriate health risk assessment and regulation of nanomaterials. With regard to reliable risk assessments, until now there is still the remaining issue to be resolved of whether or not specific challenges and unique features exist on the nanoscale that have to be tackled and distinctively

  17. Ecological risk assessments for watersheds: Lessons learned from case studies

    SciTech Connect

    Marcy, S.K.M.

    1994-12-31

    The USEPA Office of Water and Risk Assessment Forum are co-sponsoring the development of watershed level ecological risk assessments in Big Darby Creek, OH, Clinch River, VA, Middle Platte River Wetlands, NE, Snake River, ID, and Waquoit Bay Estuary, MA. The case studies are testing the Agency`s Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment at a watershed scale for multiple stressors. During case study development much has been learned about how to apply and modify the principles in the Framework to landscape scale risk assessments. Insights include how to select appropriate assessment endpoints to drive the risk assessment, how to effectively increase involvement by risk management teams, and provide decision opportunities for managers throughout development. The case studies demonstrate diverse ways to conduct watershed risk assessments, and illustrate the importance of multiple risk hypotheses in conceptual models addressing the combined and relative risk of chemical, physical and biological stressors. Issues the case studies highlight include the need for a process to determine when watershed risk assessments are appropriate and at what level of complexity they should be performed, how to increase the use of the ecological risk assessments in management decision-making and how to determine the best risk reduction strategy. An update on the watershed case studies will be provided and the insights and issues stated above, discussed.

  18. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

    SciTech Connect

    Tortorelli, J.P.

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance.

  19. Development of an agility assessment module for preliminary fighter design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ngan, Angelen; Bauer, Brent; Biezad, Daniel; Hahn, Andrew

    1996-01-01

    A FORTRAN computer program is presented to perform agility analysis on fighter aircraft configurations. This code is one of the modules of the NASA Ames ACSYNT (AirCraft SYNThesis) design code. The background of the agility research in the aircraft industry and a survey of a few agility metrics are discussed. The methodology, techniques, and models developed for the code are presented. FORTRAN programs were developed for two specific metrics, CCT (Combat Cycle Time) and PM (Pointing Margin), as part of the agility module. The validity of the code was evaluated by comparing with existing flight test data. Example trade studies using the agility module along with ACSYNT were conducted using Northrop F-20 Tigershark and McDonnell Douglas F/A-18 Hornet aircraft models. The sensitivity of thrust loading and wing loading on agility criteria were investigated. The module can compare the agility potential between different configurations and has the capability to optimize agility performance in the preliminary design process. This research provides a new and useful design tool for analyzing fighter performance during air combat engagements.

  20. Dissolution test for risk assessment of nanoparticles: a pilot study.

    PubMed

    Bove, Pasquale; Malvindi, Maria Ada; Kote, Sachin Sayaji; Bertorelli, Rosalia; Summa, Maria; Sabella, Stefania

    2017-03-09

    Worldwide efforts are currently trying to produce effective risk assessment models for orally ingested nanoparticles. These tests should provide quantitative information on the bioaccessibility and bioavailability of products of biotransformation, such as dissolved ionic species and/or aggregates. In vitro dissolution tests might be useful for nanoparticle risk assessment, because of their potential to quantitatively monitor the changes of specific properties (e.g., dissolution, agglomeration, etc.), which are critical factors linked to bioaccessibility/bioavailability. Unfortunately, the technological advancement of such tools is currently hampered by the complexity and evolving nature of nanoparticle properties that are strongly influenced by the environment and are often difficult to trace in a standardized manner. Hence, the test's success depends on its ability to quantify such properties using standardized experimental conditions to mimic reality as closely as possible. Here we applied an in vitro dissolution test to quantify the dissolution of silver nanoparticles under dynamic conditions, which likely occur in human digestion, providing a clear description of the bioaccessible ionic species (free and matrix bound ions or soluble silver organic or inorganic complexes) occurring during the different digestion phases. We demonstrated the test feasibility using a multi-technique approach and following pre-standardized operational procedures to allow for a comprehensive description of the process as a whole. Moreover, this can favour data reliability for benchmarking. Finally, we showed how the estimated values of the bioaccessible ionic species relate to absorption and excretion parameters, as measured in vivo. The outcomes presented in this work highlight the potential regulatory role of the dissolution test for orally ingested nanoparticles and, although preliminary, experimentally demonstrate the regulatory oriented "read-across" principle.

  1. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    SciTech Connect

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-27

    Measurements of radon gas ({sup 222}Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the {sup 226}Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m{sup −3} to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m{sup −3} to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m{sup −3}, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m{sup −3} to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m{sup −3}, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m{sup −3} to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m{sup −3} and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m{sup −3} to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m{sup −3}, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m{sup −3} and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the

  2. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-01

    Measurements of radon gas (222Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the 226Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m-3 to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m-3, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m-3 to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m-3, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m-3 to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m-3, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m-3 to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m-3 and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m-3 to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m-3, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m-3, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m-3, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m-3 and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m-3, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the action level for radon gas of 148 Bq m-3 proposed by EPA except monazite 0.15 kg, struverite 0.15 kg and 0.25 kg. Whereas

  3. Risk assessment of malicious biocontamination of food.

    PubMed

    Elad, Daniel

    2005-06-01

    Throughout the last decades of the 20th century, the biological threat evolved from primarily a government-controlled weapon to a tool of terrorism. One of the consequences of this trend is the near impossibility of foreseeing when and how an act of bioterrorism will occur. The suitability of food products for such an act stems from the multitude of microorganisms that may be used for contamination and the vulnerability of the products during and after processing. Tests that would enable the detection of a large variety of microorganisms quickly, reliably, and economically should also provide satisfactory means to prevent acts of malicious biocontamination of food products. Until such means become available, a priority-based approach to the problem is probably the most practical. Priorities should be determined based on a systematic risk assessment to define the relative likelihood of a certain microorganism being used in an act of malicious food contamination. Criteria to be evaluated are availability, weaponization processes, delivery of an effective dose, probability of early detection, and the microorganism's resistance to the conditions to which it will be exposed. Because the results of such an assessment may vary according to prevailing conditions, the assessment must be based on the existing circumstances. The results of the assessment should then be applied to the various procedures of food processing, which should further reduce the number of potential microbial threats. Existing methods of screening food for contaminating microorganisms and existing food safety and security procedures such as hazard analysis and critical control point programs may have to be modified to become suitable for the detection of acts of bioterrorism.

  4. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    SciTech Connect

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  5. Impact assessment of risk management interventions.

    PubMed

    Shryock, T R

    2012-04-01

    Much effort has been invested in the development and implementation of international recommendations to manage the risk of foodborne antimicrobial resistance, and monitoring programmes to measure bacterial antimicrobial resistance and antimicrobial product volumes. A variety of approaches have been recommended for various stakeholders in the food animal and food production sectors. Interestingly, much less consideration has been given to the establishment of success criteria for the individual interventions and even less for the cumulative effects, when all interventions are considered together as consecutive 'hurdles' along the food chain. The author explores the outcome and unforeseen consequences of these various interventions and appropriate methods that could provide data to assess their impact, as well as key learning experiences that should lead to refinements of such interventions in the future.

  6. United States Environmental Protection Agency: Use of risk assessment and risk management methodologies. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Lamuro, R.J.

    1992-09-30

    Make a full investigation of the policy implications and appropriate uses of risk assessment and risk management in regulatory programs under various Federal laws to prevent cancer and other chronic health effects which may result from exposure to hazardous substances. This is the primary mission of the Risk Assessment and Management Commission (Risk Commission). The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA), created the Risk Commission reflecting Congress' concern over agency use of risk assessment and risk management techniques and methodologies to implement federal laws protective of human health. The Risk Commission is to consider: methods for measuring and describing risks of chronic health effects from hazardous substances; methods to reflect uncertainties associated with estimation techniques, and whether it is possible or desirable to develop a consistent risk assessment methodology or a consistent standard of acceptable risk for various federal programs.

  7. Risk Assessment of the Carbon Nanotube Group

    PubMed Central

    Morimoto, Yasuo; Ogura, Isamu; Kobayashi, Norihiro; Naya, Masato; Ema, Makoto; Endoh, Shigehisa; Shimada, Manabu; Ogami, Akira; Myojyo, Toshihiko; Oyabu, Takako; Gamo, Masashi; Kishimoto, Atsuo; Igarashi, Takuya; Hanai, Sosuke

    2015-01-01

    This study assessed the health risks via inhalation and derived the occupational exposure limit (OEL) for the carbon nanotube (CNT) group rather than individual CNT material. We devised two methods: the integration of the intratracheal instillation (IT) data with the inhalation (IH) data, and the “biaxial approach.” A four‐week IH test and IT test were performed in rats exposed to representative materials to obtain the no observed adverse effect level, based on which the OEL was derived. We used the biaxial approach to conduct a relative toxicity assessment of six types of CNTs. An OEL of 0.03 mg/m3 was selected as the criterion for the CNT group. We proposed that the OEL be limited to 15 years. We adopted adaptive management, in which the values are reviewed whenever new data are obtained. The toxicity level was found to be correlated with the Brunauer‐Emmett‐Teller (BET)‐specific surface area (BET‐SSA) of CNT, suggesting the BET‐SSA to have potential for use in toxicity estimation. We used the published exposure data and measurement results of dustiness tests to compute the risk in relation to particle size at the workplace and showed that controlling micron‐sized respirable particles was of utmost importance. Our genotoxicity studies indicated that CNT did not directly interact with genetic materials. They supported the concept that, even if CNT is genotoxic, it is secondary genotoxicity mediated via a pathway of genotoxic damage resulting from oxidative DNA attack by free radicals generated during CNT‐elicited inflammation. Secondary genotoxicity appears to involve a threshold. PMID:25943334

  8. Inhalation cancer risk assessment of cobalt metal.

    PubMed

    Suh, Mina; Thompson, Chad M; Brorby, Gregory P; Mittal, Liz; Proctor, Deborah M

    2016-08-01

    Cobalt compounds (metal, salts, hard metals, oxides, and alloys) are used widely in various industrial, medical and military applications. Chronic inhalation exposure to cobalt metal and cobalt sulfate has caused lung cancer in rats and mice, as well as systemic tumors in rats. Cobalt compounds are listed as probable or possible human carcinogens by some agencies, and there is a need for quantitative cancer toxicity criteria. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has derived a provisional inhalation unit risk (IUR) of 0.009 per μg/m(3) based on a chronic inhalation study of soluble cobalt sulfate heptahydrate; however, a recent 2-year cancer bioassay affords the opportunity to derive IURs specifically for cobalt metal. The mechanistic data support that the carcinogenic mode of action (MOA) is likely to involve oxidative stress, and thus, non-linear/threshold mechanisms. However, the lack of a detailed MOA and use of high, toxic exposure concentrations in the bioassay (≥1.25 mg/m(3)) preclude derivation of a reference concentration (RfC) protective of cancer. Several analyses resulted in an IUR of 0.003 per μg/m(3) for cobalt metal, which is ∼3-fold less potent than the provisional IUR. Future research should focus on establishing the exposure-response for key precursor events to improve cobalt metal risk assessment.

  9. 77 FR 76050 - Draft Environmental Assessment and Preliminary Finding of No Significant Impact Concerning a...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-12-26

    ... HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Draft Environmental Assessment and Preliminary Finding of No Significant Impact Concerning a Genetically Engineered Atlantic Salmon; Availability AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Food and Drug Administration (FDA, the Agency) is...

  10. 78 FR 10620 - Draft Environmental Assessment and Preliminary Finding of No Significant Impact Concerning a...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-14

    ... HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Draft Environmental Assessment and Preliminary Finding of No...: Food and Drug Administration, HHS. ACTION: Notice; extension of comment period. SUMMARY: The Food and... conditions of use specified in materials submitted by AquaBounty Technologies, Inc., in support of a...

  11. 76 FR 63628 - Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR)

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-10-13

    ... Assistance Act, as amended (42 U.S.C. 5170 and 5191). The PDA information, along with the Governor's request...) Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) nationwide in response to an impacted State's request. The primary... support. If the Governor determines that the State does not have adequate resources to respond and...

  12. Preliminary Performance Assessment for Disposal of APT and CLWR/TEF Wastes at SRS

    SciTech Connect

    Wilhite, E.L.

    1998-10-26

    This section provides the descriptive information for understanding the analyses presented in this preliminary performance assessment. This section addresses the approach taken in the PA, provides a general description of the Savannah River Site E-Area low-level waste facility, and discusses the performance criteria used for evaluating performance.

  13. A preliminary assessment of the true morels (Morchella) in Newfoundland and Labrador

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A preliminary assessment of true morels (Morchella) from Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) was obtained by using DNA sequence data from portions of three genes to identify 20 collections from Newfoundland and one from a remote location in Labrador. To place this work in a broader context, data on 25 co...

  14. Barriers to household investment in residential energy conservation: preliminary assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffman, W.L.

    1982-12-01

    A general assessment of the range of barriers which impede household investments in weatherization and other energy efficiency improvements for their homes is provided. The relationship of similar factors to households' interest in receiving a free energy audits examined. Rates of return that underly household investments in major conservation improvements are assessed. A special analysis of household knowledge of economically attractive investments is provided that compares high payback improvements specified by the energy audit with the list of needed or desirable conservation improvements identified by respondents. (LEW)

  15. Evolutionary Consequences for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gochfeld, Michael; Burger, Joanna

    1993-01-01

    Discusses the use of the human health risk assessment model as a basis for developing ecological risk assessment (ERA). For ERA, risk to individuals is less important than the survival of the population, with the exception of endangered species. Suggests that ERA take into account the relative reproductive value of the potentially impacted…

  16. FRAMEWORK FOR INORGANIC METALS RISK ASSESSMENT - 1/2007

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA¿s Risk Assessment Forum has prepared a framework to guide risk assessors in assessing human and ecological risks of inorganic metals. Metals and metal compounds have properties not generally encountered with organic chemicals. For example, metals are neither created nor d...

  17. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  18. Risk Assessment Document for Coke Oven MACT Residual Risk

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The residual risk analysis described in this report addresses four coke plants subject to the 1993coke oven MACT standards (40 CFR Part 63 Subpart L) and estimates potential risks due to HAPsemissions from facilities involved in coking operations.

  19. Preliminary Assessment of Potential Avian Interactions at Four Proposed Wind Energy Facilities on Vandenberg Air Force Base, California

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2004-08-01

    The United States Air Force (USAF) is investigating whether to install wind turbines to provide a supplemental source of electricity at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) near Lompoc, California. As part of that investigation, VAFB sought assistance from the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to provide a preliminary characterization of the potential risk to wildlife resources (mainly birds and bats) from wind turbine installations. With wind power development expanding throughout North America and Europe, concerns have surfaced over the number of bird fatalities associated with wind turbines. Guidelines developed for the wind industry by the National Wind Coordinating Committee (NWCC) recommend assessing potential impacts to birds, bats, and other potentially sensitive resources before construction. The primary purpose of an assessment is to identify potential conflicts with sensitive resources, to assist developers with identifying their permitting needs, and to develop strategies to avoid impacts or to mitigate their effects. This report provides a preliminary (Phase I) biological assessment of potential impacts to birds and bats that might result from construction and operation of the proposed wind energy facilities on VAFB.

  20. Preliminary Testing of a Program to Prevent Type 2 Diabetes among High-Risk Youth.(research Papers)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grey, Margaret; Berry, Diane; Davidson, Maryanne; Galasso, Pam; Gustafson, Elaine; Melkus, Gail

    2004-01-01

    Type 2 diabetes is increasing among youth, with minority youth at highest risk. This preliminary study tested the feasibility of a school-based program to prevent type 2 diabetes in youth at risk. Forty-one participants (age 12.6 [+ or -] 1.1 years; 63% female, 51% African American, 44% Hispanic, and 5% Caucasian) were randomly assigned to one of…

  1. IRIS Toxicological Review of Hexabromocyclododecane (Hbcd)(Preliminary Assessment Materials)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In March 2014, EPA released the draft literature searches and associated search strategies, evidence tables, and exposure response arrays for HBCD to obtain input from stakeholders and the public prior to developing the draft IRIS assessment. Specifically, EPA was interested in c...

  2. Assessing Young Children for Imaginativeness Through Oral Reporting: Preliminary Results.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yawkey, Thomas D.; Yawkey, Margaret L.

    The present study describes the initial use of a measure for assessing children's imaginative predispositions and reports findings of significant relationships between oral reports of imaginativeness and selected individual and family variables. Subjects were 50 preschool children 4 to 5 years of age. Variables investigated were number of parents…

  3. IRIS Toxicological Review of Dibutyl Phthalate (Dbp) (Preliminary Assessment Materials)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In January 2015, EPA released the draft literature searches and associated search strategies, evidence tables, and exposure response arrays for DBP to obtain input from stakeholders and the public prior to developing the draft IRIS assessment. Specifically, EPA was interested in ...

  4. IRIS Toxicological Review of Diisononyl Phthalate (Dinp) (Preliminary Assessment Materials)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In August 2014, EPA released the draft literature searches and associated search strategies, evidence tables, and exposure response arrays for DINP to obtain input from stakeholders and the public prior to developing the draft IRIS assessment. Specifically, EPA was interested in ...

  5. IRIS Toxicological Review of Inorganic Arsenic (Preliminary Assessment Materials)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In April 2014, EPA released the draft literature searches and associated search strategies, evidence tables, and exposure response arrays for inorganic arsenic (iAs) to obtain input from stakeholders and the public prior to developing the draft IRIS assessment. Specifically, EPA ...

  6. PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THREE NCO LEADERSHIP PREPARATION TRAINING SYSTEMS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    HOOD, PAUL D.; AND OTHERS

    THREE ALTERNATIVE LEADERSHIP TRAINING SYSTEMS WERE STUDIED TO EVALUATE WHAT MIGHT BE THE MOST FEASIBLE METHOD OF IDENTIFYING AND TRAINING POTENTIAL JUNIOR NONCOMMISSIONED OFFICERS, AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE IN THEIR ARMY CAREERS. TRAINING OBJECTIVES WERE DEFINED AND TRAINING MATERIALS AND ASSESSMENT DEVICES WERE DEVELOPED AND REFINED FOR APPLICATION IN…

  7. PRELIMINARY EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT FINDINGS FROM THE TAMPA ASTHMATIC CHILDREN'S STUDY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Tampa Asthmatic Children's Study (TACS) was a pilot study that focused on developing and evaluating air pollution exposure assessment methods and participant recruiting tools. The four-week study was performed in October and November, 2003. The study involved repeated daily...

  8. The Assessment of Shyness in Children: Preliminary Instrumentation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lazarus, Philip J.

    Shyness is a prevalent problem among grade school children, and several instruments for measuring shyness are being developed. Some of these assessment instruments include the Shyness Line, the Shyness Problem Line, and the Shyness Self Report, questionnaires focusing on children's feelings, thoughts and behaviors related to shyness. These…

  9. IRIS Toxicological Review of Diethyl Phthalate (DEP) (Preliminary Assessment Materials)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In March 2014, EPA released the draft literature searches and associated search strategies, evidence tables, and exposure response arrays for DEP to obtain input from stakeholders and the public prior to developing the draft IRIS assessment. Specifically, EPA was interested in co...

  10. Reliability and validity of self-reported assessment of exposure and outcome variables for manual lifting tasks: a preliminary investigation.

    PubMed

    Yeung, Simon S; Genaidy, Ash M; Karwowski, Waldemar; Leung, P C

    2002-09-01

    The reliability and validity of self-reported assessment of exposure and outcome variables were examined for manual lifting activities among ten physiotherapists. In this study, the participants evaluated the effects of five lifting variables on perceived effort, twice separated by a one-week period. One hundred and sixty-two lifting conditions were evaluated by each subject. The exposure and outcome lifting variables were described in linguistic terms. Intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC(1,1)) analysis revealed a mean value of 0.62 for all lifting activities. The self-reported assessment was cross-validated with the NIOSH lifting index by mapping the linguistic variables into numerical ranges. Moderate correlations (r = 0.54 and 0.53, p<0.01) were obtained between perceived physical exertion/perceived risk and lifting index. The findings of this study provide preliminary indications that human-based methodologies may be further explored on experienced workers.

  11. Seismic Hazard Assessment of Middle East Region: Based on the Example to Georgia (Preliminary results)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsereteli, N. S.; Akkar, S.; Askan, A.; Varazanashvili, O.; Adamia, S.; Chkhitunidze, M.

    2012-12-01

    The country of Georgia is located between Russia and Turkey. The main morphological units of Georgia are the mountain ranges of the Greater and Lesser Caucasus separated by the Black Sea-Rioni and Kura (Mtkvari)-South Caspian intermountain troughs. Recent geodynamics of Georgia and adjacent territories of the Black Sea-Caspian Sea region, as a whole, are determined by its position between the still-converging Eurasian and Africa-Arabian plates. That caused moderate seismicity in the region. However, the risk resulting from these earthquakes is considerably high, as recent events during the last two decades have shown. Seismic hazard and risk assessment is a major research topic in various recent international and national projects. Despite the current efforts, estimation of regional seismic hazard assessment remains as a major problem. Georgia is one of the partners of ongoing regional project EMME (Earthquake Model for Middle East region). The main objective of EMME is calculation of Earthquake hazard uniformly with heights standards. One approach used in the project is the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment PSHA. In this study, we present the preliminary results of PSHA for Georgia in this project attempting to improve gaps especially in such steps as: determination of seismic sources; selection or derivation of ground motion prediction equations models; estimation of maximum magnitude Mmax. Seismic sources (SS) were obtained on the bases of structural geology, parameters of seismicity and seismotectonics. Finely new SS have been developed for Georgia and adjacent region. Each zone was defined with the following parameters: the magnitude-frequency parameters, maximum magnitude, and depth distribution as well as modern dynamical characteristics widely used for complex processes. As the ground motion dataset is absolutely insufficient by itself to derive a ground motion prediction model for Georgia, two approaches were taken in defining ground motions. First

  12. Assessing uncertainty in published risk estimates using ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Introduction: The National Research Council recommended quantitative evaluation of uncertainty in effect estimates for risk assessment. This analysis considers uncertainty across model forms and model parameterizations with hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] and lung cancer mortality as an example. The objective is to characterize model uncertainty by evaluating estimates across published epidemiologic studies of the same cohort.Methods: This analysis was based on 5 studies analyzing a cohort of 2,357 workers employed from 1950-74 in a chromate production plant in Maryland. Cox and Poisson models were the only model forms considered by study authors to assess the effect of Cr(VI) on lung cancer mortality. All models adjusted for smoking and included a 5-year exposure lag, however other latency periods and model covariates such as age and race were considered. Published effect estimates were standardized to the same units and normalized by their variances to produce a standardized metric to compare variability within and between model forms. A total of 5 similarly parameterized analyses were considered across model form, and 16 analyses with alternative parameterizations were considered within model form (10 Cox; 6 Poisson). Results: Across Cox and Poisson model forms, adjusted cumulative exposure coefficients (betas) for 5 similar analyses ranged from 2.47 to 4.33 (mean=2.97, σ2=0.63). Within the 10 Cox models, coefficients ranged from 2.53 to 4.42 (mean=3.29, σ2=0.

  13. Data used in preliminary performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (1990)

    SciTech Connect

    Rechard, R.P ); Luzzolino, H. ); Sandha, J.S. )

    1990-12-01

    This report documents the data available as of August 1990 and used by the Performance Assessment Division of Sandia National Laboratories in its December 1990 preliminary performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Parameter values are presented in table form for the geologic subsystem, engineered barriers, borehole flow properties, climate variability, and intrusion characteristics. Sources for the data and a brief discussion of each parameter are provided. 101 refs., 72 figs., 21 tabs.

  14. Preliminary environmental assessment for the satellite power system (SPS). Revision 1. Volume 1. Executive summary

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-01-01

    A preliminary assessment of the environmental impacts of the proposed satellite power system (SPS) is summarized here. In this system, satellites would collect solar energy in space, convert it to microwaves, and transmit the microwaves to receiving antennas (rectennas) on earth. At the rectennas, the microwaves would be converted to electricity. The assessment considers microwave and nonmicrowave effects on the terrestrial environment and human health, atmospheric effects, and disruption of communications and other electromagnetic systems.

  15. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    2011-03-01

    contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

  16. Risk Assessment for Human Immunodeficiency Virus among Pregnant Hispanic Adolescents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berger, David K.; And Others

    1993-01-01

    Assessed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk status of pregnant Hispanic adolescents in New York City. One-third of 87 adolescents were identified as being at increased risk for HIV infection. Sexual risk-taking behavior was most common factor that increased HIV risk. Birthplace and nationality were significantly associated with HIV risk…

  17. Preliminary technology utilization assessment of the robotic fruit harvester

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilhelm, J.

    1982-01-01

    The results of an analysis whose purpose was to examine the history and progress of mechanical fruit harvesting, to determine the significance of a robotic fruit tree harvester and to assess the available market for such a product are summarized. Background information that can be used in determining the benefit of a proof of principle demonstration is provided. Such a demonstration could be a major step toward the transfer of this NASA technology.

  18. Issues in Violent Risk Assessment: Lessons Learned and Future Directions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.

    2005-01-01

    Realizing that the assessment of dangerousness with a yes/no format as a poor form of violent risk assessment has been the most important lesson learned about violence in the last 20 years. Further examining (a) what outcome and (b) how the indicators of the outcome should be measured has resulted in better violent risk assessment. The most…

  19. The Process of Suicide Risk Assessment: Twelve Core Principles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Granello, Darcy Haag

    2010-01-01

    Suicide risk assessment requires counselors to determine client risk factors, warning signs, and protective factors. The content of suicide assessment has received attention in the literature. The guiding principles of the process of suicide assessment, however, have not yet been articulated. This article contains 12 core process principles that…

  20. Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Decision Making During Spacecraft Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2009-01-01

    Decisions made during the operational phase of a space mission often have significant and immediate consequences. Without the explicit consideration of the risks involved and their representation in a solid model, it is very likely that these risks are not considered systematically in trade studies. Wrong decisions during the operational phase of a space mission can lead to immediate system failure whereas correct decisions can help recover the system even from faulty conditions. A problem of special interest is the determination of the system fault protection strategies upon the occurrence of faults within the system. Decisions regarding the fault protection strategy also heavily rely on a correct understanding of the state of the system and an integrated risk model that represents the various possible scenarios and their respective likelihoods. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling is applicable to the full lifecycle of a space mission project, from concept development to preliminary design, detailed design, development and operations. The benefits and utilities of the model, however, depend on the phase of the mission for which it is used. This is because of the difference in the key strategic decisions that support each mission phase. The focus of this paper is on describing the particular methods used for PRA modeling during the operational phase of a spacecraft by gleaning insight from recently conducted case studies on two operational Mars orbiters. During operations, the key decisions relate to the commands sent to the spacecraft for any kind of diagnostics, anomaly resolution, trajectory changes, or planning. Often, faults and failures occur in the parts of the spacecraft but are contained or mitigated before they can cause serious damage. The failure behavior of the system during operations provides valuable data for updating and adjusting the related PRA models that are built primarily based on historical failure data. The PRA models, in turn