Science.gov

Sample records for preliminary risk assessment

  1. Prenatal Child Abuse Risk Assessment: A Preliminary Validation Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weberling, Lara Cady; Forgays, Deborah Kirby; Crain-Thoreson, Catherine; Hyman, Ira

    2003-01-01

    Tested the validity of the Brigid Collins Risk Screener (BCRS) to assess child abuse risk in a sample of 49 expectant mothers. Found that at 3 months postpartum, high-risk mothers scored significantly lower on the quality of infants' physical, social, and emotional environments than moderate or low-risk mothers. Concluded that the BCRS appears to…

  2. Preliminary risk benefit assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rice, E. E.; Denning, R. S.; Friedlander, A. L.; Priest, C. C.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes the recent work of the authors on the evaluation of health risk benefits of space disposal of nuclear waste. The paper describes a risk model approach that has been developed to estimate the non-recoverable, cumulative, expected radionuclide release to the earth's biosphere for different options of nuclear waste disposal in space. Risk estimates for the disposal of nuclear waste in a mined geologic repository and the short- and long-term risk estimates for space disposal were developed. The results showed that the preliminary estimates of space disposal risks are low, even with the estimated uncertainty bounds. If calculated release risks for mined geologic repositories remain as low as given by the U.S. DOE, and U.S. EPA requirements continue to be met, then no additional space disposal study effort in the U.S. is warranted at this time. If risks perceived by the public are significant in the acceptance of mined geologic repositories, then consideration of space disposal as a complement to the mined geologic repository is warranted.

  3. Preliminary risk assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space, volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rice, E. E.; Denning, R. S.; Friedlander, A. L.

    1982-01-01

    The feasibility, desirability and preferred approaches for disposal of selected high-level nuclear wastes in space were analyzed. Preliminary space disposal risk estimates and estimates of risk uncertainty are provided.

  4. Preliminary risk assessment of radon in groundwater: a case study from Eskisehir, Turkey.

    PubMed

    Yuce, Galip; Gasparon, Massimo

    2013-06-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the radon concentrations in the water supplies of a residential area of central west Anatolia, Turkey. This research provides a preliminary risk assessment for inhabitants in the study area which can be applied for other regions. In 14 out of the 19 water supplies analysed, radon concentrations exceeded the maximum contaminant level (11.1 Bq l(-1)). The total annual effective doses of 10 for the wet season and 14 for the dry season out of the 19 water supplies are greater than the values recommended by EPA [Cancer Risk Coefficients for Environmental Exposure to Radionuclides, Federal Guidance Report No. 13 (US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, 1999) < http://www.epa.gov/rpdweb00/docs/federal/402-r-99-001.pdf >] (0.1 mSv a(-1)). The elevated radon concentrations in water resources are most probably linked with geological origin which contains significant amounts of radioactive minerals.

  5. A preliminary risk assessment of the Australian region power network to space weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marshall, R. A.; Smith, E. A.; Francis, M. J.; Waters, C. L.; Sciffer, M. D.

    2011-10-01

    It is well documented that power networks at high latitudes are vulnerable to the effects of space weather. In recent years the eastern Australia state power networks have been connected across state boundaries in order to improve robustness under increasing load demands and deliver power at competitive prices. However, this interconnectivity is likely to increase susceptibility of the network to space weather. Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) flow in power transmission lines as the result of "geoelectric" fields and their associated geomagnetic field variations according to Faraday's Law. In this paper previously documented occurrences of GIC activity from regions around the world are investigated and categorized by their effects on nearby power networks. A frequency domain filter that produces an index representing GIC activity is applied to geomagnetic field data recorded at locations near the documented GIC activity to determine risk level "GIC index" thresholds. Geomagnetic field data from the Australian region are processed using the "GIC filter" to provide a preliminary risk assessment of space weather related GIC activity to the Australian power network. The analysis suggests lower limit threshold GICy indices of 50, 100, 250, and 600 corresponding to the risk levels of "low," "moderate," "high," and "extreme," respectively. Analysis of GICy indices derived from Australian magnetometer data shows that only southern Australian regions reached the "moderate" risk levels defined in this study with mainland southern Australia stations reaching this risk level twice over the previous two solar cycles. Southern Australian regions such as Tasmania reached moderate levels approximately 20 times during the previous solar cycle. Furthermore, elevated risk levels are typically only observed in Australia during solar maximum and its decline phase.

  6. Aflatoxins in food products consumed in Brazil: a preliminary dietary risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Andrade, P D; de Mello, M Homem; França, J A; Caldas, E D

    2013-01-01

    A preliminary dietary exposure assessment for aflatoxins (AFs; AFB1, AFB2, AFG1 and AFG2) was conducted to evaluate the potential carcinogenic risks for the Brazilian population. AF concentration data in food were obtained from analysis reports issued by the Central Public Health Laboratory of the Federal District (LACEN-DF) and from published work. Food consumption and body weight (bw) data were obtained from a national survey conducted in 2008/2009. Cancer risks arising from exposure to aflatoxins were assessed using the carcinogenic potency of AFs estimated by the JECFA, and hepatitis B virus prevalence in the Brazilian population. Additionally, margins of exposure (MOE) were also calculated for the various scenarios investigated. A total of 942 food samples were analysed for AFs in the Federal District between 2002 and 2011 with 4.5% of them being positive for at least one aflatoxin (LOQ = 2 µg kg(-1)). The highest percentage of contamination was found in peanuts (8.1%) and Brazil nuts (6.0%), with mean levels ranging from 6.7 µg kg(-1) in peanut products to 36.9 µg kg(-1) in Brazil nuts. Most of the studies conducted elsewhere in Brazil found similar results. Total AF intake for the total Brazilian population and high consumers of food relevant for AF contamination in Brazil (upper bound; samples < LOQ = 0.5 LOQ) were 6.8 and 27.6 ng kg(-1) bw day(-1), respectively. Cancer risk reached 0.0753 cancers year(-1) per 10(5) individuals for the total population and 0.3056 cancers year(-1) per 10(5) individuals for high consumers. MOE reached 25 and 6 for the total population and high consumers, respectively, indicating a potential risk for consumers. Aflatoxins are genotoxic carcinogens, and government action should be maintained and continuously improved in order to guarantee that human exposure levels are kept as low as possible.

  7. Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

    2011-05-01

    This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

  8. Risk assessments for energy systems and role of preliminary degree-of-hazard evaluations

    SciTech Connect

    Habegger, L.J.; Fingleton, D.J.

    1985-11-01

    The appropriate approach to risk or hazard assessment can vary considerably, depending on various factors, including the intended application of the results and the time other resources available to conduct the assessment. This paper illustrates three types of interrelated assessments. Although they can be mutually supportive, they have fundamentally different objectives, which require major differences in approach. The example of the overall risk assessment of alternative major energy technologies illustrates the compilation of a wide range of available risk data applicable to these systems. However, major uncertainties exist in the assessments, and public perception of their importance could play an important role in final system evaluations. A more narrowly defined risk assessment, often focusing on an individual component of a larger system, is the most commonly used approach in regulatory applications. The narrow scope allows in-depth analysis of risks and associated uncertainties, but it may also contribute to a loss of perspective on the magnitude of the assessed risk relative to that of the unassessed risks. In some applications, it is useful to conduct semiquantitative degree-of-hazard evaluations as a means of setting priorities for detailed risk assessment. The MAHAS procedure described in this paper provides a means of rapidly ranking relative hazards from various sources using easily accessible data. However, these rankings should not be used as definitive input for selecting technology alternatives or developing regulations. 25 refs., 6 tabs.

  9. Preliminary Risk Assessment of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Mullen, M.A.; Foxx, T.S.

    1998-10-01

    The southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) is the fourth threatened or endangered species to undergo a preliminary assessment for estimating potential risk from environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The assessments are being conducted as part of a three-year project to develop a habitat management plan for threatened and endangered species and species of concern at the Laboratory. For the preliminary assessment, estimated doses were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices (HIs). This assessment included a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants (radionuclides, metals, and organic chemicals) to 100 simulated nest sites located within flycatcher potential habitat. Sources of contaminant values were 10,000-ft{sup 2} grid cells within an Ecological Exposure Unit (EEU). This EEU was estimated around the potential habitat and was based on the maximum home range for the fly catcher identified in the scientific literature. The tools used included a custom FORTRAN program, ECORSK5, and a geographic information system. Food consumption and soil ingestion contaminant pathways were addressed in the assessment. Using a four-category risk evaluation, HI results indicate no appreciable impact is expected to the southwestern willow flycatcher. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, flycatcher habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain low levels of risk from contaminants.

  10. [Preliminary health risk assessment of heavy metals in drinking waters in Beijing].

    PubMed

    Gao, Ji-jun; Zhang, Li-ping; Huang, Sheng-biao; Ma, Mei; Wang, Zi-jian

    2004-03-01

    Concentrations distribution of the Cu, Hg, Cd, As in drinking water in the 8 city districts and 10 counties in Beijing was studied based on a total of 120 random samples. Health risks associated with 4 metals in drinking water were assessed using USEPA health risk assessment model. The results showed that the concentrations of the heavy metals in drinking water in Beijing ranged from 0.81 to 6.96 micrograms.L-1 for Cu, 0.34-0.82 microgram.L-1 for Cd, 0.10-0.74 microgram.L-1 for Hg and 0.19-3.02 micrograms.L-1 for As. Among the health risks caused by the carcinogens in drinking water, the largest risk associated with As should be in Tongzhou County (2.0 x 10(-5).a-1) and that with Cd should be in Changping County (2.3 x 10(-6).a-1), while both were significantly lower than the maximum allowance levels recommended by ICRP(5 x 10(-5).a-1). Among the non-carcinogenic risks in drinking water, the largest risk was the risk associated with Hg, followed by Cu. The non-carcinogenic risks levels ranged from 10(-8) to 10(-9), much lower than the maximum allowance levels recommended by ICRP. PMID:15202233

  11. Vulnerability assessment for preliminary flood risk mapping and management in coastal areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greco, Michele; Martino, Giovanni

    2013-04-01

    Planning and management of coastal environment, both terrestrial and marine, is affected by several actions in environment resource conservation and improvement paying specific attention to risk forecasting and preventing. In such context the EU flood Directive 2007/60/EC, which requires Member States the assessment and management of flood risk, and the EU water framework Directive (2000/60/EC) are the key factors in the integrated river basin management to assure an efficient and rational use of resources. Afterwards, coastal risk assessment and mapping is a propaedeutic phase to plan and manage coastal areas. In this work risk analysis refers to the results obtained by the combined application of coastal flooding and erosion risks in the activities carried out to prepare Regional Coast Management Plan for the Ionian coast of Basilicata Region located in the south of Italy. In order to define the driving forces acting on the shore, high resolution lidar data, bathymetric information and wave climate statistics acquired by meteorological analyses on wind field data referred to different acquisition times are used. The systemic vulnerability estimation is achieved by composing both hazard factors combined in the Criticality Coastal Index depending on of the assessment of Coastal Flood Index and Coastal Erosion Index based on morphologic and socio-economic variables.

  12. Daily life behaviors and depression risk following stroke: a preliminary study using ecological momentary assessment.

    PubMed

    Jean, François A M; Swendsen, Joel D; Sibon, Igor; Fehér, Kristoffer; Husky, Mathilde

    2013-09-01

    Approximately one-third of stroke survivors have symptoms of depression. A better understanding of the early risk factors implicated in this form of comorbidity may contribute to the development of early prevention strategies and to improving outcomes for this population. The current study uses ecological momentary assessment techniques to identify behavioral risk factors for depression 3 months after stroke. Thirty-six participants completed ambulatory monitoring of daily life circumstances (location, social environment, and activity) 5 times per day during a 1-week period after hospital discharge. Clinician-administered measures of depression were also provided before discharge and 3 months later. Ambulatory monitoring revealed that depression scores at 3 months were lower among individuals with more social interactions but higher among those who reported having sports activities and working in the week following hospital discharge. Daily life behaviors may have important implications for understanding the risk of poststroke depression, and mobile technologies may provide important contributions to their investigation.

  13. Seasonal occurrence, removal efficiencies and preliminary risk assessment of multiple classes of organic UV filters in wastewater treatment plants.

    PubMed

    Tsui, Mirabelle M P; Leung, H W; Lam, Paul K S; Murphy, Margaret B

    2014-04-15

    Organic ultraviolet (UV) filters are applied widely in personal care products (PCPs), but the distribution and risks of these compounds in the marine environment are not well known. In this study, the occurrence and removal efficiencies of 12 organic UV filters in five wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) equipped with different treatment levels in Hong Kong, South China, were investigated during one year and a preliminary environmental risk assessment was carried out. Using a newly developed simultaneous multiclass quantification liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method, butyl methoxydibenzoylmethane (BMDM), 2,4-dihydroxybenzophenone (BP-1), benzophenone-3 (BP-3), benzophenone-4 (BP-4) and 2-ethyl-hexyl-4-trimethoxycinnamate (EHMC) were frequently (≥80%) detected in both influent and effluent with mean concentrations ranging from 23 to 1290 ng/L and 18-1018 ng/L, respectively; less than 2% of samples contained levels greater than 1000 ng/L. Higher concentrations of these frequently detected compounds were found during the wet/summer season, except for BP-4, which was the most abundant compound detected in all samples in terms of total mass. The target compounds behaved differently depending on the treatment level in WWTPs; overall, removal efficiencies were greater after secondary treatment when compared to primary treatment with >55% and <20% of compounds showing high removal (defined as >70% removal), respectively. Reverse osmosis was found to effectively eliminate UV filters from effluent (>99% removal). A preliminary risk assessment indicated that BP-3 and EHMC discharged from WWTPs may pose high risk to fishes in the local environment.

  14. Preliminary assessment of PCB risks to human and ecological health in the lower Passaic River.

    PubMed

    Finley, B L; Trowbridge, K R; Burton, S; Proctor, D M; Panko, J M; Paustenbach, D J

    1997-10-10

    slope factor, total risks were 1.9 x 10(-5); the "PCB-TEQ" method yielded total risks of 6.5 x 10(-4); and USEPA's recent suggested approach for evaluating "dioxin-like" and non-"dioxin-like" effects resulted in a total risk of 6.6 x 10(-4). This wide range in risk estimates indicates that it is critical to the risk management decision-making process that data requirements and risk assessment objectives be carefully evaluated early in the investigation process.

  15. Arsenic concentration in rice, fish, meat and vegetables in Cambodia: a preliminary risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wang, Hong-Sheng; Sthiannopkao, Suthipong; Chen, Zhuo-Jia; Man, Yu-Bon; Du, Jun; Xing, Guang-Hua; Kim, Kyoung-Woong; Mohamed Yasin, Mohamed Salleh; Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Wong, Ming-Hung

    2013-12-01

    To assess arsenic contaminations and its possible adverse health effects, food samples were collected from Kandal, Kratie and Kampong Cham in Cambodia. The highest and the lowest concentrations were observed in fish (mean 2,832 ng g(-1), ww) collected from Kandal province and cattle stomach (1.86 ± 1.10 ng g(-1), ww) collected from Kratie, respectively. The daily intake of arsenic via food consumption was 604, 9.70 and 136 μg day(-1) in Kandal, Kratie and Kampong Cham, respectively. The arsenic dietary intake in Kandal ranked No. 1 among all the 17 compared countries or regions. Fish consumption contributed the greatest proportion of total arsenic daily intake in Kandal (about 63.0 %) and Kampong Cham (about 69.8 %). It is revealed to be a much more important exposure pathway than drinking water for residents in Kampong Cham. The results of risk assessment suggested that the residents in Cambodia, particularly for people in Kandal province, suffer high public health risks due to consuming arsenic-contaminated food.

  16. A spatially-dynamic preliminary risk assessment of the American peregrine falcon at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (version 1)

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.

    1997-06-01

    The Endangered Species Act and the Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory require protection of the American peregrine falcon. A preliminary risk assessment of the peregrine was performed using a custom FORTRAN model and a geographical information system. Estimated doses to the falcon were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices. Hazard index results indicated no unacceptable risk to the falcon from the soil ingestion pathway, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. Scaling home ranges on the basis of maximizing falcon height for viewing prey decreased estimated risk by 69% in a canyons-based home range and increased estimated risk by 40% in a river-based home range. Improving model realism by weighting simulated falcon foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased risk by 93% in one exposure unit and by 82% in a second exposure unit. It was demonstrated that choice of toxicity reference values can have a substantial impact on risk estimates. Adding bioaccumulation factors for several organics increased partial hazard quotients by a factor of 110, but increased the mean hazard index by only 0.02 units. Adding a food consumption exposure pathway in the form of biomagnification factors for 15 contaminants of potential ecological concern increased the mean hazard index to 1.16 ({+-} 1.0), which is above the level of acceptability (1.0). Aroclor-1254, dichlorodiphenyltrichlorethane (DDT) and dichlorodiphenylethelyne (DDE) accounted for 81% of the estimated risk that includes soil ingestion and food consumption Contaminant pathways and a biomagnification component. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, falcon habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations. 123 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs.

  17. Chemical stimulation in unconventional hydrocarbons extraction in the USA: a preliminary environmental risk assessment.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutra, Emilie; Spada, Matteo; Burgherr, Peter

    2016-04-01

    While the exploitation of unconventional resources recently shows an extensive development, the stimulation techniques in use in this domain arouse growing public concerns. Often in the shadow of the disputed hydraulic fracturing process, the matrix acidizing is however a complementary or alternative procedure to enhance the reservoir connectivity. Although acidizing processes are widespread within the traditional hydrocarbons sources exploration, the matrix acidizing does not appear to be commonly used in unconventional hydrocarbons formations due to their low permeability. Nonetheless, this process has been recently applied to the Monterey formation, a shale oil play in California. These stimulation fluids are composed by various chemicals, what represents a matter of concern for public as well as for authorities. As a consequence, a risk assessment implying an exposure and toxicity analysis is needed. Focusing on site surface accidents, e.g., leak of a chemical from a storage tank, we develop in this study concentration scenarios for different exposure pathways to estimate the potential environmental risk associated with the use of specific hazardous substances in the matrix acidizing process for unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs in the USA. Primary, information about the usage of different hazardous substances have been collected in order to extract the most frequently used chemicals. Afterwards, a probabilistic estimation of the environmental risk associated with the use of these chemicals is carried out by comparing the Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PEC) distribution with the Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNEC) value. The latter is collected from a literature review, whereas the PEC is estimated as probability distribution concentrations in different environmental compartments (e.g., soil) built upon various predefined accident scenarios. By applying a probabilistic methodology for the concentrations, the level at which the used chemicals

  18. Second annual review update preliminary risk assessment of federally protected species at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Gonzales, G.J.; Gallegos, A.F.; Foxx, T.S.

    1998-02-01

    In FY96 and FY97, preliminary assessments were conducted of the potential risk from legacy waste to the American peregrine falcon (Falco peregrimus), the bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), and the Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida). Estimated doses were compared against toxicity reference values (TRVs) to generate hazard indices that included a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants (radionuclides, metals, and organic chemicals). The tools used included a custom FORTRAN code ECORSK, and a geographic information system. The assessments originally included only the soil ingestion contaminant pathway. Since the initial assessments, a food consumption contaminant pathway has been added, bioaccumulation and biomagnification of some contaminants have been factored into the food consumption pathway, and some of the TRVs against which estimated doses are compared have been changed to values which relate more closely to the Aves taxonomical class. With these and other more subtle improvements in model input parameters, ECORSK has been revised and the model has been re-executed for the owl and peregrine exposure units that originally generated the highest risk indices. This report contains the updated results. On average, results indicate a small potential for impact to the peregrine falcon, but no appreciable impact to the spotted owl nor the bald eagle. The original reports cited in this document should be consulted for details on methods.

  19. A Preliminary Examination of Specific Risk Assessment for Sexual Offenders against Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Proeve, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Specific risk questions concerning sexual offending, such as risk of offending against male victims given identified female victims, have seldom been discussed in the child sexual abuse literature. Two approaches to specific risk questions are described: (a) conditional probability calculations, and (b) the development of risk assessment…

  20. Preliminary aquatic risk assessment of imidacloprid after application in an experimental rice plot.

    PubMed

    Daam, Michiel A; Santos Pereira, Ana C; Silva, Emília; Caetano, Lia; Cerejeira, Maria José

    2013-11-01

    The potential aquatic risk of application of the neonicotinoid insecticide imidacloprid for aphid control in rice was assessed. To this end, imidacloprid was applied as Confidor(®) 200 SC at the recommended field dose of 100g a.i./ha to a Portuguese rice plot. Subsequently, fate of the test compound in water and potential effects of water samples on a battery of test species were determined. As compared to the first-tier predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) calculated using MED-Rice (around 30µg/L depending on the scenario used) and US-EPA (78µg/L) simulations, the actual peak concentration measured in the paddy water (52µg/L) was higher and lower, respectively. As was anticipated based on 50% effect concentrations (EC50 values) for Daphnia magna published in the open literature and that calculated in the present study (48h-EC50 immobility=84mg/L), no effects were observed of field water samples on daphnids. The sediment-dwelling ostracod Heterocypris incongruens, however, appeared relatively sensitive towards imidacloprid (6d-EC50 growth inhibition=0.01-0.015mg/L) and a slight effect was indeed noted in field samples taken the first week after application. Species sensitivity distributions based on published EC50 and NOEC values also revealed that other species are likely to be affected at the peak and time-weighted average imidacloprid concentrations, respectively. By applying the relative tolerance approach (i.e. by dividing the EC50 value of a certain species with that of Daphnia magna), ostracods appear to contain the most sensitive taxa to imidacloprid, followed by EPT (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera) taxa. Future field studies into (higher-tier) fate modelling of pesticides in rice paddies and effect assessment on field communities are required to ensure protection of aquatic life and wildlife (e.g. birds) from pesticide stress. PMID:23911212

  1. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation. 1996 update

    SciTech Connect

    Sample, B.E.; Hinzman, R.L.; Jackson, B.L.; Baron, L.

    1996-09-01

    More than approximately 50 years of operations, storage, and disposal of wastes generated by the three facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant) has resulted in a mosaic of uncontaminated property and lands that are contaminated to varying degrees. This contaminated property includes source areas and the terrestrial and aquatic habitats down gradient from these source areas. Although the integrator OUs generally contain considerable habitat for biota, the source OUs provide little or no suitable habitat. Historically, ecological risk assessment at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source OU. Endpoints considered in source OUs include plants, soil/litter invertebrates and processes, aquatic biota found in on-OU sediments and surface waters, and small herbivorous, omnivorous, and vermivorous (i.e., feeding on ground, litter, or soil invertebrates) wildlife. All of these endpoints have limited spatial distributions or home ranges such that numerous individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the source OU. Most analyses are not adequate for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the ORR that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. This report is a preliminary response to a plan for assessing risks to wide-ranging species.

  2. Health Risk Assessment using in vitro digestion model in assessing bioavailability of heavy metal in rice: A preliminary study.

    PubMed

    Omar, N A; Praveena, S M; Aris, A Z; Hashim, Z

    2015-12-01

    Little is known about the bioavailability of heavy metal contamination and its health risks after rice ingestion. This study aimed to determine bioavailability of heavy metal (As, Cd, Cu, Cr, Co, Al, Fe, Zn and Pb) concentrations in cooked rice and human Health Risk Assessment (HRA). The results found Zn was the highest (4.3±0.1 mg/kg), whereas As showed the lowest (0.015±0.001 mg/kg) bioavailability of heavy metal concentration in 22 varieties of cooked rice. For single heavy metal exposure, no potential of non carcinogenic health risks was found, while carcinogenic health risks were found only for As. Combined heavy metal exposures found that total Hazard Quotient (HQtotal) values for adult were higher than the acceptable range (HQTotal<1), whereas total Lifetime Cancer Risk (LCRTotal) values were higher than the acceptable range (LCRTotal values >1×10(-4)) for both adult and children. This study is done to understand that the inclusion of bioavailability heavy metal into HRA produces a more realistic estimation of human heavy metal exposure.

  3. A spatially-dynamic preliminary risk assessment of the bald eagle at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Gonzales, G.J.; Gallegos, A.F.; Foxx, T.S.; Fresquez, P.R.; Mullen, M.A.; Pratt, L.E.; Gomez, P.E.

    1998-04-01

    The Endangered Species Act of 1973 and the Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) require that the Department of Energy protect the bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), a state and federally listed species, from stressors such as contaminants. A preliminary risk assessment of the bald eagle was performed using a custom FORTRAN code, ECORSK5, and the geographical information system. Estimated exposure doses to the eagle for radionuclide, inorganic metal, and organic contaminants were derived for varying ratios of aquatic vs. terrestrial simulated diet and compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices (His). HI results indicate that no appreciable impact to the bald eagle is expected from contaminants at LANL from soil ingestion and food consumption pathways. This includes a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes linear additive toxicity. Improving model realism by weighting simulated eagle foraging based on distance from potential roost sites increased the HI by 76%, but still to inconsequential levels. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, eagle habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain risk from contaminants at low levels.

  4. Preliminary zoning for risk assessment and remediation purposes in Portman Bay.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pérez-Sirvent, Carmen; Martínez-Sanchez, MJose; Garcia-Lorenzo, MariLuz; Hernandez-Cordoba, Manuel; Molina, Jose; Gonzalez, Eva; Perez-Espinosa, Victor

    2014-05-01

    determined using Cu-Kα radiation with an X-ray Diffractometer and appropriate software. Data for metal leached, Acid-volatile sulphide (AVS) and simultaneously extracted metals (SEM) were also obtained. The results allowed two types of materials to be differentiated. The first one with a fine particle size, is related with the direct discharge of wastes and contains jarosite and other minerals resulting of supergenic alteration. The pH is low and both the level of heavy metals and chemical reactivity are high. The second, different material is black sand, a sediment of coarse texture in which stable minerals, phylosilicates, iron oxides and hydroxides, siderite, pyrite and quartz predominate. The pH is close to neutrality and despite a high heavy metals level, the chemical reactivity is low. The data allowed a preliminary zoning of the risk in the area to be established, and this was the starting point to outline the remediation project.

  5. Preliminary Assessment of Health Risks of Potentially Toxic Elements in Settled Dust over Beijing Urban Area

    PubMed Central

    Wan, Dejun; Zhan, Changlin; Yang, Guanglin; Liu, Xingqi; Yang, Jinsong

    2016-01-01

    To examine levels, health risks, sources, and spatial distributions of potentially toxic elements in settled dust over Beijing urban area, 62 samples were collected mostly from residential building outdoor surfaces, and their <63 μm fractions were measured for 12 potentially toxic elements. The results show that V, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, and Ba in dust are from predominantly natural sources, whereas Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Sb, and Pb mostly originate from anthropogenic sources. Exposure to these elements in dust has significant non-cancer risks to children but insignificant to adults. Cancer risks of Cr, Co, Ni, As, and Cd via inhalation and dermal contact are below the threshold of 10−6–10−4 but As via dust ingestion shows a tolerable risk. The non-cancer risks to children are contributed mainly (75%) by As, Pb, and Sb, and dominantly (92%) via dust ingestion, with relatively higher risks mainly occurring in the eastern and northeastern Beijing urban areas. Although Cd, Zn, and Cu in dust are heavily affected by anthropogenic sources, their health risks are insignificant. Source appointments suggest that coal burning emissions, the dominant source of As, are likely the largest contributors to the health risk, and traffic-related and industrial emissions are also important because they contribute most of the Pb and Sb in dust. PMID:27187427

  6. Technical Report on Preliminary Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Coles, Garill A.; Coble, Jamie B.; Hirt, Evelyn H.

    2013-09-17

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. AdvSMRs may provide a longer-term alternative to traditional light-water reactors (LWRs) and SMRs based on integral pressurized water reactor concepts currently being considered. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment. AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors. Some of this loss can be recovered through reduced capital costs through smaller size, fewer components, modular fabrication processes, and the opportunity for modular construction. However, the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments that are a step towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results from an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors by integrating real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors.

  7. Preliminary assessment of costs and risks of transporting spent fuel by barge

    SciTech Connect

    Tobin, R.L.; Meshkov, N.K.; Jones, R.H.

    1985-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the costs and risks associated with transporting spent fuel by barge. The barge movements would be made in combination with rail movements to transport spent fuel from plants to a repository. For the purpose of this analysis, three candidate repository sites are analyzed: Yucca Mountain, Nevada, Deaf Smith, Texas, and Hanford, Washington. This report complements a report prepared by Sandia National Laboratories in 1984 that analyzes the costs and risks of transporting spent fuel by rail and by truck to nine candidate repository sites.

  8. Preliminary risk assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space, volume 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rice, E. E.; Denning, R. S.; Friedlander, A. L.

    1982-01-01

    Safety guidelines are presented. Waste form, waste processing and payload fabrication facilities, shipping casks and ground transport vehicles, payload primary container/core, radiation shield, reentry systems, launch site facilities, uprooted space shuttle launch vehicle, Earth packing orbits, orbit transfer systems, and space destination are discussed. Disposed concepts and risks are then discussed.

  9. Ehrlichiosis in Household Dogs and Parasitized Ticks in Kerman-Iran: Preliminary Zoonotic Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Motaghipisheh, Shahrzad; Akhtardanesh, Baharak; Ghanbarpour, Reza; Aflatoonian, Mohammad Reza; Khalili, Mohammad; Nourollahifard, Saeed Reza; Mokhtari, Saghar

    2016-01-01

    Background: Ehrlichiosis is an emerging tick-borne zoonotic disease caused by the family of Anaplasmatacea. Recently, outbreak of human monocytic ehrlichiosis was reported in northern part of Iran. Besides, serological evidence of canine monocytic ehrlichiosis caused by Ehrlichia canis was reported from southeastern of Iran but the epidemiology of this disease is almost undetermined in Iran. The present study was designed to use PCR for detection of Ehrlichia spp. in tick infested household dogs and determination of risks of disease transmission to dog’s owners. Method: Blood samples were prepared from 100 tick infested household dogs after complete clinical examination. Complete cell blood count was done for each sample. DNA extraction was done and PCR was carried out by a commercial kit afterwards. Regarding to PCR results, blood samples were collected from owners and family members who were exposed to infected and non-infected dogs. A similar method was utilized for DNA extraction and PCR in human samples. Result: Ehrlichial DNA was detected by PCR in six percent of Rhipicephalus sanguineus tick pools and 9% of the examined dogs. No positive sample was detected among the 67 examined human bloods. Conclusion: Ehrlichiosis could be considered as an emerging canine disease but owning a dog should not be considered a major risk factor for ehrlichiosis in humans. Further serological and molecular studies in different parts of Iran are required to clarify the epidemiology of ehrlichiosis in canine, ticks, and human population. PMID:27308282

  10. Preliminary Assessment of Ergonomic Injury Risk Factors in the Extravehicular Mobility Unit Spacesuit Glove

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Amick, Ryan Z.; Reid, Christopher R.; Vu, Linh Q.; Nguyen, Dan; Sweet, Robert; McFarland, Shane; Rajulu, Sudhakar

    2016-01-01

    Injuries to the hands and fingers are commonly reported among astronauts who perform and train for Extravehicular Activities in the Extravehicular Mobility Unit Spacesuit. In an effort to better understand the physical and environmental ergonomic injury risk factors associated with spacesuit glove use, a custom built carrier glove with multiple integrated sensors was developed to be worn within the spacesuit glove with the purpose of measuring the physical and environmental variables acting on the fingers and hand, and the physiological response, within two pressurized glove conditions in a 1G laboratory setting. One male subject performed multiple dynamic and functional tasks in a pressurized EMU. Results indicate that the sensor glove is capable of measuring multiple physical and environmental variables associated with the development of finger and hand injuries observed in astronauts.

  11. Fukushima nuclear accident: preliminary assessment of the risks to non-human biota.

    PubMed

    Aliyu, Abubakar Sadiq; Ramli, Ahmad Termizi; Garba, Nuraddeen Nasiru; Saleh, Muneer Aziz; Gabdo, Hamman Tukur; Liman, Muhammad Sanusi

    2015-02-01

    This study assesses the 'radio-ecological' impacts of Fukushima nuclear accident on non-human biota using the ERICA Tool, which adopts an internationally verified methodology. The paper estimates the impacts of the accident on terrestrial and marine biota based on the environmental data reported in literature for Japan, China, South Korea and the USA. Discernible impacts have been detected in the marine biota around Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. This study confirms that the Fukushima accident had caused heavier damage to marine bionts compared with terrestrial flora and fauna, in Japan. PMID:24827576

  12. [Survey of arsenic concentrations in Chinese herbal medicines (CHMs) and preliminary risk assessment of As in CHMs on human health].

    PubMed

    Liu, Xiao-Juan; Liu, Wen-Ju; Lin, Ai-Jun; Liu, Yun-Xia

    2010-12-01

    Characteristics and concentrations of As in Chinese Herbal Medicines (CHMs) from Hebei province (including samples collected from fields and from medicine markets) were investigated, and the ADI (allowable daily intake) standard value from FAO/WHO was used for preliminary assessment of As risk on human health. The results showed that the average of As concentrations in different roots which were used as medicines, ranged from 0.14 mg/kg to 0.54 mg/kg,while for shoots which were used as medicines, average value of As concentrations in Dendranthema morifolium was 1.42 mg/kg, and the range in other species was from 0.09 mg/kg to 0.27 mg/kg. Based on Green Standards of Medicinal Plants and Preparations for Foreign Trade and Economy (2.0 mg/kg), the percentage of samples with As concentrations exceeding standard was 3.27% (n = 153) in roots and 9.09% (n = 44) in shoots,and 4.57% (n = 197) in total CHMs samples. As concentrations in CHMs from fields ranged from 0.03 mg/kg to 0.73 mg/kg,which were all lower than 2.0 mg/kg. However, As concentrations in CHMs from markets ranged from 0.05 mg/kg to 7.05 mg/kg, and the concentrations of As in 6.36% of samples exceeded the limited standard. Arsenic concentrations in samples from markets were significantly higher than those from fields (p < 0.05). As concentrations in Compositae were distributed widely from 0.08 mg/kg to 7.05 mg/kg,and the average at 0.87 mg/kg,while the average of As concentrations in other six families were between 0.21 mg/kg and 0.41 mg/kg, and As levels in 75% of samples for each family were below 0.5 mg/kg. Compared to Compositae samples, the CHMs from other families have higher security. ADI regulated by FAO/WHO was used to assess As risk in CHMs on human health in this study as well. As daily intake through CHMs from markets varied from 0.90 microg/d to 19.7 microg/d, and percentages of the daily intake of As in CHMs to ADI were in the range of 0.70% to 15.4%, which indicated that As in CHMs from markets

  13. Determination of furan levels in commercial samples of baby food from Brazil and preliminary risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Pavesi Arisseto, A; Vicente, E; De Figueiredo Toledo, M C

    2010-08-01

    Commercial baby food samples available on the Brazilian market (n = 31) were analysed for furan content using a gas chromatography-mass spectrometry method preceded by solid-phase microextraction. A limit of detection of 0.7 microg kg(-1), a limit of quantitation of 2.4 microg kg(-1), mean recoveries varying from 80% to 107%, and coefficients of variation ranging from 5.6% to 9.4% for repeatability and from 7.4% to 12.4% for within-laboratory reproducibility were obtained during an in-house validation. The levels of furan found in the samples were from not detected to 95.5 microg kg(-1). Samples containing vegetables and meat showed higher furan levels as compared with those containing only fruits. An exposure assessment showed furan intakes up to 2.4 microg kg(-1) body weight day(-1) (99th percentile) for babies fed exclusively with commercial baby foods. Margins of exposure obtained from intakes estimated in this work indicated a potential public health concern.

  14. Enhanced preliminary assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-02-01

    An Enhanced Preliminary Assessment was conducted at Fort Benjamin Harrison (FBH) Indiana, which is located approximately 12 miles from downtown Indianapolis in Lawrence Township, Marion County. FBH contains 2,501 acres, of which approximately 1,069 acres is covered by woodlands. Activities at FBH include administration, training, housing, and support. Sensitive environments at FBH include wetlands, habitat areas for the endangered Indiana bat, endangered plants, and historically and archeologically significant areas. FBH is a U.S. Army Soldier Support Center under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC). Based on information obtained during and subsequent to a site visit (15 through 18 October 1991), 36 types of Areas Requiring Environmental Evaluation (AREEs) were identified and grouped by the following categories: Facility Operations; Maintenance/Fueling Operations; Water Treatment Operations; Training Areas; Hazardous Materials Storage/Waste Handling Areas; Sanitary Wastewater Treatment Plants; Storage Tanks; Landfills/Incinerators; Medical Facilities; Burn Pit Areas; Spill Areas; Ammunition Storage; Coal Storage; and Facility-wide AREEs. This report presents a summary of findings for each AREE and recommendations for further action.

  15. Fractionation distribution and preliminary ecological risk assessment of As, Hg and Cd in ornithogenic sediments from the Ross Sea region, East Antarctica.

    PubMed

    Lou, Chuangneng; Liu, Xiaodong; Nie, Yaguang; Emslie, Steven D

    2015-12-15

    To evaluate mobility of toxic elements and their potential ecological risk caused by seabird biovectors, the fractionation distributions of arsenic (As), mercury (Hg) and cadmium (Cd) were investigated in three ornithogenic sediment profiles from the Ross Sea region, East Antarctica. The results show residual As holds a dominant position, and Hg mainly derives from residual, organic matter-bound and humic acid-bound fractions, indicating weak mobility of As and Hg. However, exchangeable Cd occupies a considerable proportion in studied samples, suggesting Cd has strong mobility. The preliminary evaluation of Sediment Quality Guidelines (SGQs) shows adverse biological effects may occur occasionally for As and Cd, and rarely for Hg. Using Risk Assessment Code (RAC), the ecological risk is assessed at moderate, low and very high for As, Hg and Cd pollution, respectively. Organic matter derived from guano is the main factor controlling the mobility of Hg and Cd through adsorption and complexation.

  16. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation

    SciTech Connect

    Sample, B.E.; Baron, L.A.; Jackson, B.L.

    1995-08-01

    Historically, ecological risk assessment at CERCLA sites [such as the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR)], has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source operable unit. Consequently the species that are generally considered are those with home ranges small enough such that multiple individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the contaminated site. This approach is adequate for sites with single, discrete areas of contamination that only provide habitat for species with limited requirements. This approach is not adequate however for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. Because wide-ranging wildlife species may travel between and use multiple contaminated sites they may be exposed to and be at risk from contaminants from multiple locations. Use of a particular contaminated site by wide-ranging species will be dependent upon the amount of suitable habitat available at that site. Therefore to adequately evaluate risks to wide-ranging species at the ORR-wide scale, the use of multiple contaminated sites must be weighted by the amount of suitable habitat on OUs. This reservation-wide ecological risk assessment is intended to identify which endpoints are significantly at risk; which contaminants are responsible for this risk; and which OUs significantly contribute to risk.

  17. Trace metals and organometals in selected marine species and preliminary risk assessment to human beings in Thane Creek area, Mumbai.

    PubMed

    Mishra, S; Bhalke, S; Saradhi, I V; Suseela, B; Tripathi, R M; Pandit, G G; Puranik, V D

    2007-10-01

    Trace metals and organometals were estimated in different types of marine organisms (fish, bivalve, crab and prawn) collected from the Trans-Thane Creek area, Mumbai. Thane Creek area is considered as most polluted area due to industrial discharges. Potential risks associated with consumption of marine organisms collected from this particular area to human beings were assessed. Concentrations of ten trace elements (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) in the edible part of marine organisms were analysed by atomic absorption spectrometer and differential pulse anodic stripping voltametric technique. Methyl mercury and tributyl tin were estimated using gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer in combination with solid phase micro extraction (SPME). An assessment of the risk on human beings due to consumption of marine organism was undertaken using toxic reference benchmark, namely the reference dose (RfD). The hazard index (HI), sum of hazard quotients calculated for all the pollutant showed that the risks from consumption of fish and marine organisms as a whole were generally low and are within safe limits.

  18. Preliminary risk assessment of the Mexican Spotted Owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Pratt, L.E.

    1997-02-01

    The Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory requires that the Department of Energy takes special precautions to protect the Mexican Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis lucida). In order to do so, risk to the owl presented by radiological and nonradiological contaminants must be estimated. A preliminary risk assessment on the Mexican Spotted Owl in two Ecological Exposure Units (EEUs) was performed using a modified Environmental Protection Agency Quotient method, the FORTRAN model ECORSK4, and a geographic information system. Estimated doses to the owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime were compared against toxicological reference doses generating hazard indices (HIs) and hazard quotients (HQs) for three risk source types. The average HI was 0.20 for EEU-21 and 0.0015 for EEU-40. Under the risk parameter assumptions made, hazard quotient results indicated no unacceptable risk to the owl, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. An HI of 1.0 was used as the evaluative criteria for determining the acceptability of risk. This value was exceeded (1.06) in only one of 200 simulated potential nest sites. Cesium-137, Ni, {sup 239}Pu, Al and {sup 234}U we`re among the constituents with the highest partial HQs. Improving model realism by weighting simulated owl foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased the estimated risk by 72% (0.5 HI units) for EEU-21 and by 97.6% (6.3E-02 HI units) for EEU-40. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, owl habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain risk from contaminants at acceptably low levels.

  19. Preliminary human health risk assessment of arsenic and fluoride in tap water from Zacatecas, México.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Acuña, Mónica I; Mercado-Reyes, Marisa; Alegría-Torres, Jorge A; Mejía-Saavedra, José J

    2016-08-01

    Zacatecas state is located in the central area of Mexico, where the underground water contains elevated quantities of natural arsenic and fluoride. In order to estimate health risk associated with human exposure to these pollutants, tap water samples from the southern-central region of the state were analyzed. Ninety percent of the samples exceeded the levels of arsenic established by the World Health Organization (WHO) of 0.01 mg/L and 43 % exceeded the limit established by the NOM-127-SSA1(1) of 0.025 mg/L. Forty-three percent of the samples had fluoride levels above the Mexican regulation limit of 1.5 mg/L (NOM-127-SSA1). We used WHO and EPA's health risk assessment method, we estimated 80 % of the inhabitants of sites studied could be exposed to arsenic levels higher than those recommended by EPA and the WHO, 22 % could be exposed to fluoride levels higher than those recommended by EPA, and 16 % of the local population may be in risk of suffering dental fluorosis.

  20. Preliminary human health risk assessment of arsenic and fluoride in tap water from Zacatecas, México.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Acuña, Mónica I; Mercado-Reyes, Marisa; Alegría-Torres, Jorge A; Mejía-Saavedra, José J

    2016-08-01

    Zacatecas state is located in the central area of Mexico, where the underground water contains elevated quantities of natural arsenic and fluoride. In order to estimate health risk associated with human exposure to these pollutants, tap water samples from the southern-central region of the state were analyzed. Ninety percent of the samples exceeded the levels of arsenic established by the World Health Organization (WHO) of 0.01 mg/L and 43 % exceeded the limit established by the NOM-127-SSA1(1) of 0.025 mg/L. Forty-three percent of the samples had fluoride levels above the Mexican regulation limit of 1.5 mg/L (NOM-127-SSA1). We used WHO and EPA's health risk assessment method, we estimated 80 % of the inhabitants of sites studied could be exposed to arsenic levels higher than those recommended by EPA and the WHO, 22 % could be exposed to fluoride levels higher than those recommended by EPA, and 16 % of the local population may be in risk of suffering dental fluorosis. PMID:27444184

  1. Topaz II preliminary safety assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Marshall, A.C. ); Standley, V. ); Voss, S.S. ); Haskin, E. )

    1993-01-10

    The Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) decided to investigate the possibility of launching a Russian Topaz II space nuclear power system. A preliminary safety assessment was conducted to determine whether or not a space mission could be conducted safely and within budget constraints. As part of this assessment, a safety policy and safety functional requirements were developed to guide both the safety assessment and future Topaz II activities. A review of the Russian flight safety program was conducted and documented. Our preliminary safety assessment included a top level event tree, neutronic analysis of normal and accident configurations, an evaluation of temperature coefficients of reactivity, a reentry and disposal analysis, and analysis of postulated launch abort impact accidents, and an analysis of postulated propellant fire and explosion accidents. Based on the assessment, it appears that it will be possible to safely launch the Topaz II system in the U.S. with some possible system modifications. The principal system modifications will probably include design changes to preclude water flooded criticality and to assure intact reentry.

  2. Topaz II preliminary safety assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Marshall, A.C. ); Standley, V. ); Voss, S.S. ); Haskin, E. . Dept. of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering)

    1992-01-01

    The Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) decided to investigate the possibility of launching a Russian Topaz 11 space nuclear power system. A preliminary safety assessment was conducted to determine whether or not a space mission could be conducted safely and within budget constraints. As part of this assessment, a safety policy and safety functional requirements were developed to guide both the safely assessment and future Topaz II activities. A review of the Russian flight safety program was conducted and documented. Our preliminary safety assessment included a top level event tree, neutronic analysis of normal and accident configurations, an evaluation of temperature coefficients of reactivity, a reentry and disposal analysis, and analysis of postulated launch abort impact accidents, and an analysis of postulated propellant fire and explosion accidents. Based on the assessment, it appears that it will be possible to safely launch the Topaz II system in the US with some possible system modifications. The principal system modifications will probably include design changes to preclude water flooded criticality and to assure intact reentry.

  3. Preliminary Hazards Assessment: Iron disulfide purification system

    SciTech Connect

    1991-07-30

    A process for the purification (washing) of iron disulfide (FeS{sub 2}) powder is conducted in the Northeast corner (Area 353) of the main plant building (Building 100). This location is about 130 feet from the fenced boundary of the Partnership School/Child Development Center. In the first steps of the process, raw iron disulfide powder is ground and separated by particle size. The ground and sized powder is then purified in a three-step acid washing process using both hydrochloric acid (HCI) and hydrofluoric (HF) acid. The iron disulfide process is an intermittent batch process conducted four to eight times a year. This study is a Preliminary Hazards Assessment (PHA) to assess the hazards associated with the iron disulfide process. This is a preliminary study and will be used to determine if additional safety analysis is necessary. The scope of the PHA includes assessment of the process steps of grinding, size classification, and purification. The purpose is to identify major hazards and determine if the current and newly added safeguards are adequate for operation. The PHA also lists recommendations for additional safety features that should be added to reduce the risks of operation.

  4. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  5. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

  6. A preliminary risk assessment of potential exposure to naturally occurring estrogens from Beijing (China) market milk products.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chen; Mi, Xiaoxia; Yuan, Yuwei; Chen, Gang; Ren, Li; Wang, Kaiqiang; Zhu, Dan; Qian, Yongzhong

    2014-09-01

    This study was conducted to determine the occurrence of the natural steroid hormones estrone (E1), 17α-estradiol (αE2), 17β-estradiol (βE2) and estriol (E3) in 38 commercial milk samples obtained from markets in Beijing, China. Liquid Chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) was employed to determine estrogens levels. The concentrations of E1, αE2, βE2 and E3 in different milk products varied from 0-146.12 ng/L, 0-70.12 ng/L, 0-31.85 ng/L to 0-2.18 ng/L, respectively. We compared exposures to estrogens through milk consumption with acceptable daily intakes (ADIs) and threshold for toxicological concern (TTC) to determine whether estrogen intakes from milk consumption are larger or smaller than the toxicity-based benchmarks. The combined margin of safety MOS (MOST) for total estrogens are about 72-99, 118-161, 539-1104, for 2-4, 4-7 year-old residential children, and adults, respectively. The lowest MOST for children of 2-4 years old result from comparing total of estrogens with the lowest TTC value (0.15 μg/person/day) (MOS=3.5). The MOS values suggest that the individual and total estrogens that may present in milk are not causing a health risk for the local residents, including young children.

  7. Radioactively contaminated areas: Bioindicator species and biomarkers of effect in an early warning scheme for a preliminary risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lourenço, Joana; Mendo, Sónia; Pereira, Ruth

    2016-11-01

    Concerns about the impacts on public health and on the natural environment have been raised regarding the full range of operational activities related to uranium mining and the rest of the nuclear fuel cycle (including nuclear accidents), nuclear tests and depleted uranium from military ammunitions. However, the environmental impacts of such activities, as well as their ecotoxicological/toxicological profile, are still poorly studied. Herein, it is discussed if organisms can be used as bioindicators of human health effects, posed by lifetime exposure to radioactively contaminated areas. To do so, information was gathered from several studies performed on vertebrates, invertebrate species and humans, living in these contaminated areas. The retrieved information was compared, to determine which are the most used bioindicators and biomarkers and also the similarities between human and non-human biota responses. The data evaluated are used to support the proposal for an early warning scheme, based on bioindicator species and on the most sensitive and commonly shared biomarkers, to perform a screening evaluation of radioactively contaminated sites. This scheme could be used to support decision-making for a deeper evaluation of risks to human health, making it possible to screen a large number of areas, without disturbing and alarming local populations.

  8. Radioactively contaminated areas: Bioindicator species and biomarkers of effect in an early warning scheme for a preliminary risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lourenço, Joana; Mendo, Sónia; Pereira, Ruth

    2016-11-01

    Concerns about the impacts on public health and on the natural environment have been raised regarding the full range of operational activities related to uranium mining and the rest of the nuclear fuel cycle (including nuclear accidents), nuclear tests and depleted uranium from military ammunitions. However, the environmental impacts of such activities, as well as their ecotoxicological/toxicological profile, are still poorly studied. Herein, it is discussed if organisms can be used as bioindicators of human health effects, posed by lifetime exposure to radioactively contaminated areas. To do so, information was gathered from several studies performed on vertebrates, invertebrate species and humans, living in these contaminated areas. The retrieved information was compared, to determine which are the most used bioindicators and biomarkers and also the similarities between human and non-human biota responses. The data evaluated are used to support the proposal for an early warning scheme, based on bioindicator species and on the most sensitive and commonly shared biomarkers, to perform a screening evaluation of radioactively contaminated sites. This scheme could be used to support decision-making for a deeper evaluation of risks to human health, making it possible to screen a large number of areas, without disturbing and alarming local populations. PMID:27343869

  9. GM Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  10. Ecological risk assessment on a cadmium contaminated soil landfill--a preliminary evaluation based on toxicity tests on local species and site-specific information.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chien-Min; Liu, Ming-Chao

    2006-04-15

    In recent years, methodology of ecological risk assessment has been developed and applied frequently for addressing various circumstances where ecological impacts are suspected or have occurred due to environmental contamination; however, its practice is very limited in Taiwan. In 1982, brown rice from rice paddy fields in Da-Tan, Tau-Yuan, was found to be contaminated with Cd and Pb due to illegal discharges of wastewater, known as the "Cd rice" incidence. Cadmium laden soil was transferred to a constructed landfill in an industrial park 15 years after the incident. Possible leakage of the landfill was suspected by committee members of a supervising board for the remediation process, and a preliminary ecological risk evaluation was requested. A possible risk scenario was that groundwater contamination due to the leachate containing Cd and Pb from the landfill could result in pollution of coastal water, and subsequently produce toxic effects to aquatic organisms. Chemical dissipation in groundwater systems was simulated and short-term chronic toxicity tests on larvae of three local aquatic species were also performed to determine the no-observed adverse-effect concentrations (NOAECs), as well as the predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs), of the two metals in the organisms tested. The hazard quotient (HQ), the ratio of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) to PNECs, was used for risk characterization. A worst-case-scenario calculation showed that the maximum Cd concentration at 60 m and farther downstream from the site in the groundwater system would be 0.0028 mg l(-1) with a maximum initial concentration of 0.65 mg l(-1) in the leachate, while for Pb, the highest concentration of 0.044 mg l(-1) would be reached at a distance of 40 m and farther, which was based on an initial concentration of 4.4 mg l(-1) in the leachate; however, both cases would only occur 80 years after the initiation of leakage. A presumed dilution factor of 100 was used to

  11. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries. PMID:19009454

  12. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  13. Preliminary assessment of the safety of IFMIF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, N. P.; Brañas, B.; Eriksson, E.; Natalizio, A.; Pinna, T.; Rodríguez-Rodrigo, L.; Ciattaglia, S.; Lässer, R.

    2007-08-01

    The International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) is a planned high-energy neutron source for the testing of candidate materials for future fusion power plants. Safety studies performed during the various stages of the conceptual design of IFMIF have been brought together in a preliminary assessment of the safety of IFMIF, identifying the principal hazards and the means to prevent or mitigate them. The design is based on dual high-energy deuteron accelerators delivering beams onto a flowing lithium target, in which neutrons are produced through a d-Li stripping reaction. The neutrons irradiate material samples in controlled conditions in a test cell. In all these systems, potential hazards arise, but analyses show that no postulated off-normal event can result in a significant risk of harm to the public. However, care must be taken in forthcoming detailed design development to minimise occupational radiation exposure during IFMIF operation and maintenance.

  14. Strategic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  15. Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  16. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson; Wagner, Stefan M.; Shigematsu, Mika; Risi, George; Kozlovac, Joe; Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke; Prat, Esmeralda

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  17. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  18. A preliminary risk assessment of organochlorines accumulated in fish to the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) in the Northwestern waters of Hong Kong.

    PubMed

    Hung, C L H; Xu, Y; Lam, J C W; Connell, D W; Lam, M H W; Nicholson, S; Richardson, B J; Lam, P K S

    2006-11-01

    The Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin is considered threatened due to several factors including pollution in Hong Kong and the risks due to consumption of fish tainted with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides were assessed. Six species of fish Collichthys lucida, Pseudosciaena crocea, Johnius sp., Thryssa sp., Mugil sp. and Trichiurus sp., which comprise the main prey species of humpback dolphins were collected for analyses. Risks due to total PCBs, total TEQs, PCB 118 and the pesticides were assessed with the use of toxicity reference values as the threshold reference benchmarks. The calculated risk quotients (RQs) showed that the risks associated with organochlorines were generally low. The highest RQ was associated with total TEQs suggesting that dioxin-like PCBs may pose the highest risk to the dolphins. The HCHs, total PCBs and heptachlor had comparatively high RQs and thus they should also be the priority organochlorines that would require further investigation. PMID:16516360

  19. Landslide risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  20. Public Risk Assessment Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  1. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  2. Environmental risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MacDonell, M.M.

    1997-10-01

    This paper presents a current overview of the basic elements of environmental risk assessment within the basic four-step process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and risk characterization. These general steps have been applied to assess both human and ecological risks from environmental exposures. Approaches used to identify hazards and exposures are being refined, including the use of optimized field sampling and more representative, rather than conservative,upper-bound estimates. In addition, toxicity data are being reviewed more rigorously as US and European harmonization initiatives gain strength, and the classification of chemicals has become more qualitative to more flexibly accommodate new dose-response information as it is developed. Finally, more emphasis is being placed on noncancer end points, and human and ecological risks are being weighed against each other more explicitly at the risk characterization phase. Recent advances in risk-based decision making reflect the increased transparency of the overall process, with more explicit incorporation of multiple trade-offs. The end result is a more comprehensive life-cycle evaluation of the risks associated with environmental exposures at contaminated sites.

  3. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Pohl, Phillip

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the risk implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.

  4. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Findings

    SciTech Connect

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-07-16

    Often the methodologies for assessing proliferation risk are focused around the inherent vulnerability of nuclear energy systems and associated safeguards. For example an accepted approach involves ways to measure the intrinsic and extrinsic barriers to potential proliferation. This paper describes preliminary investigation into non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve proliferation assessment and advance the approach to assessing nuclear material diversion. Proliferation resistance assessment, safeguard assessments and related studies typically create technical information about the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to diversion of nuclear material. The purpose of this research project is to find ways to integrate social information with technical information by explicitly considering the role of culture, groups and/or individuals to factors that impact the possibility of proliferation. When final, this work is expected to describe and demonstrate the utility of social science modeling in proliferation and proliferation risk assessments.

  5. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  6. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates aremore » based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.« less

  7. Preliminary melter performance assessment report

    SciTech Connect

    Elliott, M.L.; Eyler, L.L.; Mahoney, L.A.; Cooper, M.F.; Whitney, L.D.; Shafer, P.J.

    1994-08-01

    The Melter Performance Assessment activity, a component of the Pacific Northwest Laboratory`s (PNL) Vitrification Technology Development (PVTD) effort, was designed to determine the impact of noble metals on the operational life of the reference Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant (HWVP) melter. The melter performance assessment consisted of several activities, including a literature review of all work done with noble metals in glass, gradient furnace testing to study the behavior of noble metals during the melting process, research-scale and engineering-scale melter testing to evaluate effects of noble metals on melter operation, and computer modeling that used the experimental data to predict effects of noble metals on the full-scale melter. Feed used in these tests simulated neutralized current acid waste (NCAW) feed. This report summarizes the results of the melter performance assessment and predicts the lifetime of the HWVP melter. It should be noted that this work was conducted before the recent Tri-Party Agreement changes, so the reference melter referred to here is the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) melter design.

  8. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the riskmore » implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.« less

  9. Preliminary Assessment of Turbomachinery Codes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mazumder, Quamrul H.

    2007-01-01

    This report assesses different CFD codes developed and currently being used at Glenn Research Center to predict turbomachinery fluid flow and heat transfer behavior. This report will consider the following codes: APNASA, TURBO, GlennHT, H3D, and SWIFT. Each code will be described separately in the following section with their current modeling capabilities, level of validation, pre/post processing, and future development and validation requirements. This report addresses only previously published and validations of the codes. However, the codes have been further developed to extend the capabilities of the codes.

  10. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  11. GM risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, P A C

    2010-03-01

    GM risk assessments (GMRAs) play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of each GMRA will be able to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to asses any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all "what if" scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This article sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GMRA. While reference is made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  12. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  13. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  14. A support vector machine designed to identify breasts at high risk using multi-probe generated REIS signals: a preliminary assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gur, David; Zheng, Bin; Lederman, Dror; Dhurjaty, Sreeram; Sumkin, Jules; Zuley, Margarita

    2010-02-01

    A new resonance-frequency based electronic impedance spectroscopy (REIS) system with multi-probes, including one central probe and six external probes that are designed to contact the breast skin in a circular form with a radius of 60 millimeters to the central ("nipple") probe, has been assembled and installed in our breast imaging facility. We are conducting a prospective clinical study to test the performance of this REIS system in identifying younger women (< 50 years old) at higher risk for having or developing breast cancer. In this preliminary analysis, we selected a subset of 100 examinations. Among these, 50 examinations were recommended for a biopsy due to detection of a highly suspicious breast lesion and 50 were determined negative during mammography screening. REIS output signal sweeps that we used to compute an initial feature included both amplitude and phase information representing differences between corresponding (matched) EIS signal values acquired from the left and right breasts. A genetic algorithm was applied to reduce the feature set and optimize a support vector machine (SVM) to classify the REIS examinations into "biopsy recommended" and "non-biopsy" recommended groups. Using the leave-one-case-out testing method, the classification performance as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.816 +/- 0.042. This pilot analysis suggests that the new multi-probe-based REIS system could potentially be used as a risk stratification tool to identify pre-screened young women who are at higher risk of having or developing breast cancer.

  15. Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture is a local event in the aneurysm wall that naturally demands tools to assess the risk for local wall rupture. Consequently, global parameters like the maximum diameter and its expansion over time can only give very rough risk indications; therefore, they frequently fail to predict individual risk for AAA rupture. In contrast, the Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment (BRRA) method investigates the wall’s risk for local rupture by quantitatively integrating many known AAA rupture risk factors like female sex, large relative expansion, intraluminal thrombus-related wall weakening, and high blood pressure. The BRRA method is almost 20 years old and has progressed considerably in recent years, it can now potentially enrich the diameter indication for AAA repair. The present paper reviews the current state of the BRRA method by summarizing its key underlying concepts (i.e., geometry modeling, biomechanical simulation, and result interpretation). Specifically, the validity of the underlying model assumptions is critically disused in relation to the intended simulation objective (i.e., a clinical AAA rupture risk assessment). Next, reported clinical BRRA validation studies are summarized, and their clinical relevance is reviewed. The BRRA method is a generic, biomechanics-based approach that provides several interfaces to incorporate information from different research disciplines. As an example, the final section of this review suggests integrating growth aspects to (potentially) further improve BRRA sensitivity and specificity. Despite the fact that no prospective validation studies are reported, a significant and still growing body of validation evidence suggests integrating the BRRA method into the clinical decision-making process (i.e., enriching diameter-based decision-making in AAA patient treatment).

  16. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-06-01

    This Preliminary Assessment draft report will present the results of a literature search and preliminary assessment of the body of research, analysis methods, models and data deemed to be relevant to the Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment research. This report will provide: 1) a description of the problem space and the kinds of information pertinent to the problem space, 2) a discussion of key relevant or representative literature, 3) a discussion of models and modeling approaches judged to be potentially useful to the research, and 4) the next steps of this research that will be pursued based on this preliminary assessment. This draft report represents a technical deliverable for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling (SAM) program. Specifically this draft report is the Task 1 deliverable for project PL09-UtilSocial-PD06, Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment. This project investigates non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessment, including nonproliferation assessment, proliferation resistance assessments, safeguards assessments and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about the State’s posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This project will find and fuse social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation. The aim of this research is to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment.

  17. Risk Assessment System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    FEAT, a software system for evaluating risks, was developed by Lockheed and later enhanced under NASA funding. FEAT uses directed graph - or digraph - models to provide information on cause and effect if a set of failure events occurs. James Miller, the program designer at Lockheed, formed DiGraphics, Inc. to market the software that has evolved from FEAT. The Diquest Analyzer, the company's flagship product, assists product designers in identifying the redundancies and weaknesses of a system. The software has applications in the chemical industry for risk assessment, design evaluation, and change management. Additional markets have been found in operations monitoring diagnostics and training of new personnel.

  18. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    SciTech Connect

    Lipfert, F.W.; Saroff, L.

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  19. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivitymore » analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.« less

  20. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  1. Risk Assessment Workgroup report.

    PubMed

    Donohue, Joyce; Orme-Zavaleta, Jennifer; Burch, Michael; Dietrich, Daniel; Hawkins, Belinda; Lloyd, Tony; Munns, Wayne; Steevens, Jeffery; Steffensen, Dennis; Stone, Dave; Tango, Peter

    2008-01-01

    The Risk Assessment Work Group focused on six charge questions related to CHABS, cyanobacteria and their toxins. The charge questions covered the following topics: Research needed to reduce uncertainty in establishing health based guidelines. Research that minimize the cost and maximize the benefits of various regulatory approaches. Exposure pathways for receptors of concern. Data available to support the derivation of health-based guideline values for harmful cyanobacterial algal blooms. Ecological services that guidelines or regulations should protect? A framework for making risk management determinations that incorporates consideration of the characteristics of CHABs, the risk for human health, ecosystem viability, and the costs and benefits of CHABs detection and management? The Work Group concluded that there is a considerable amount of human case-study data and information from animal studies to demonstrate that cyanobacterial toxins pose a hazard to humans, domestic animals, wildlife, and the ecosystem. However, the data on dose-response are limited and confounded by a lack of sufficient pure toxin to conduct most of the toxicological studies that will be needed in order to answer remaining questions on risk, and to provide the data for quantitative dose-response analysis. The Work Group recommended that research on purification or synthesis of pure toxin must be accomplished before the large scale studies to establish dose-response relationships will be possible. As the necessary-pure toxins become available, the Work Group recommended that studies be prioritized by the impact that they will have on reducing the uncertainty in the risk assessment in order to minimize the research costs and maximize the risk assessment benefits. Use of quantitative structure activity relationships (QSAR) and toxicity equivalency factor studies are also recommended as approaches for filling dose-response data gaps. The Work Group recognized that CHABs rarely introduce single

  2. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG&G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers` needs and the product have been established.

  3. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established.

  4. School Age Effects of the Newborn Individualized Developmental Care and Assessment Program for Medically Low-Risk Preterm Infants: Preliminary Findings

    PubMed Central

    McAnulty, Gloria; Duffy, Frank H.; Kosta, Sandra; Weisenfeld, Neil I.; Warfield, Simon K.; Butler, Samantha C.; Bernstein, Jane Holmes; Zurakowski, David; Als, Heidelise

    2012-01-01

    Background: By school-age, even low-risk moderately preterm-born children show more neuro-cognitive deficits, motor impairments, academic underachievement, behavioral problems, and poor social adaptation than full-term peers. Aim: To evaluate the outcomes at school-age for moderately preterm-born children (29-33 weeks gestational age), appropriate in growth for gestational age (AGA) and medically at low-risk, randomized to Newborn Individualized Developmental Care and Assessment Program (NIDCAP) or standard care in the Newborn Intensive Care Unit. At school-age, the experimental (E) group will show better neuropsychological and neuro-electrophysiological function, as well as improved brain structure than the control (C) group. Materials and Methods: The original sample consisted of 30 moderately preterm-born infants (29 to 33 weeks), 23 (8C and 15E) of them were evaluated at 8 years of age, corrected-for-prematurity with neuropsychological, EEG spectral coherence, and diffusion tensor magnetic resonance imaging (DT-MRI) measures. Results: E-performed significantly better than C-group children on the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children-Second Edition (KABC-II) and trended towards better scores on the Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure Test. They also showed more mature frontal and parietal brain connectivities, and more mature fiber tracts involving the internal capsule and the cingulum. Neurobehavioral results in the newborn period successfully predicted neuropsychological functioning at 8 years corrected age. Conclusion: Moderately preterm infants cared for with the NIDCAP intervention showed improved neuropsychological and neuro-electrophysiological function as well as improved brain structure at school-age. PMID:23951557

  5. Temporal trends in the levels of metals, PCDD/Fs and PCBs in the vicinity of a municipal solid waste incinerator. Preliminary assessment of human health risks.

    PubMed

    Rovira, Joaquim; Vilavert, Lolita; Nadal, Martí; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

    2015-09-01

    The concentrations of PCDD/Fs, PCBs, and metals were determined in soil and air samples collected near a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) located in Mataró (Catalonia, Spain), being the health risks for the population living in the vicinity of the facility subsequently assessed. We also established the temporal trends with respect to previous surveys performed in the same zone. In general terms, the highest environmental levels of the pollutants were found in the city of Mataró and were independent on the distance to the MSWI. Soil levels of metals did not show temporal variations between the current and previous campaigns. However, the concentrations of metals in air samples collected in 2011 and 2013, were lower than those found in our 2008 survey. Regarding PCDD/Fs and PCBs, no differences were noted between the levels of the current survey and those corresponding to 2008. Anyhow, the concentrations of metals, PCDD/Fs, and PCBs in soils and air did not exceed the reference values established by regulatory organizations, being also in the low range of other similar studies recently reported. Finally, the human non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks due to exposure to metals, PCDD/Fs, and PCBs, were, for the population living in the neighborhood of the MSWI, considered as acceptable according to international standards.

  6. Preliminary health risk assessment for polybrominated diphenyl ethers and polybrominated dibenzo-p-dioxins/furans in seafood from Guangzhou and Zhoushan, China.

    PubMed

    Miyake, Yuichi; Jiang, Qinting; Yuan, Wang; Hanari, Nobuyasu; Okazawa, Tsuyoshi; Wyrzykowska, Barbara; So, Man Ka; Lam, Paul K S; Yamashita, Nobuyoshi

    2008-01-01

    Dietary intake is one of the important routes of human exposure to brominated flame retardants (BFRs) such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). The use of PBDEs may also result in exposure to polybrominated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PBDDs/DFs), as these compounds are impurities in technical mixtures of BFRs and can also be formed unintentionally by the same processes that generate chlorinated dioxins. This study determined the concentrations of polybrominated compounds in common seafood in Guangzhou and Zhoushan, and assessed the health risks of these chemicals via consumption of contaminated seafood. Seafood samples (fish, bivalves, shrimp, crab, and cephalopods) purchased from local markets in 2003 and 2004 were analyzed for PBDEs and PBDDs/DFs. The highest concentration of total PBDEs (46.3 ng g(-1) lipid wt.) was detected in fish from Guangzhou, in which BDEs 47 and 209 were the two predominant congeners. The total daily intakes of PBDEs, PBDDs, and PBDFs were, 946, 6.39, and 6.54 pg kg(-1) body weight (bw) in Guangzhou, and 489, 4.99, and 7.65 pg kg(-1) bw in Zhoushan, respectively. The hazard ratios for PBDDs and PBDFs were both greater than unity, indicating that these compounds may pose some health risks to the local population.

  7. Temporal trends in the levels of metals, PCDD/Fs and PCBs in the vicinity of a municipal solid waste incinerator. Preliminary assessment of human health risks.

    PubMed

    Rovira, Joaquim; Vilavert, Lolita; Nadal, Martí; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

    2015-09-01

    The concentrations of PCDD/Fs, PCBs, and metals were determined in soil and air samples collected near a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) located in Mataró (Catalonia, Spain), being the health risks for the population living in the vicinity of the facility subsequently assessed. We also established the temporal trends with respect to previous surveys performed in the same zone. In general terms, the highest environmental levels of the pollutants were found in the city of Mataró and were independent on the distance to the MSWI. Soil levels of metals did not show temporal variations between the current and previous campaigns. However, the concentrations of metals in air samples collected in 2011 and 2013, were lower than those found in our 2008 survey. Regarding PCDD/Fs and PCBs, no differences were noted between the levels of the current survey and those corresponding to 2008. Anyhow, the concentrations of metals, PCDD/Fs, and PCBs in soils and air did not exceed the reference values established by regulatory organizations, being also in the low range of other similar studies recently reported. Finally, the human non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks due to exposure to metals, PCDD/Fs, and PCBs, were, for the population living in the neighborhood of the MSWI, considered as acceptable according to international standards. PMID:26130170

  8. EDTA chelation reappraisal following new clinical trials and regular use in millions of patients: review of preliminary findings and risk/benefit assessment.

    PubMed

    Born, Tammy; Kontoghiorghe, Christina N; Spyrou, Aspasia; Kolnagou, Annita; Kontoghiorghes, George J

    2013-01-01

    EDTA chelation therapy is regularly used in thousands of patients worldwide. An FDA approval of more than 50 years ago for heavy metal detoxification prompted many physicians to use EDTA as an alternative medicine for many categories of patients. Recently, NIH initiated the so-called Trial to Assess Chelation Therapy (TACT), which has been designed to evaluate whether EDTA and high dose oral vitamins and mineral therapy could offer clinical, quality of life, and economic benefits for patients with a previous myocardial infraction. A 50% reduction of urinary Pb and improvement of systolic blood pressure was observed in 33 cardiovascular patients following 20 iv administrations. In another study involving 15 patients of different categories, EDTA also has been shown to be an effective and nontoxic chelator for the removal of xenobiotic metals such as Pb, Cd, Ni and Al. Administration of iv EDTA on weekly basis appears to be a sufficient and nontoxic protocol for treating patients with suspected overload and toxicity of xenobiotic metals especially Pb and Cd. The causative effect of xenobiotic metals in cancer, cardiovascular, neurodegenerative, renal and other diseases needs further investigation. Similarly, the use of EDTA chelation therapy in other conditions, which are not related to xenobiotic metal toxicity needs further investigation and confirmation of therapeutic use from controlled randomized clinical trials. Metal balance and drug interaction studies are required to clarify the risk/benefit assessment for the long term use of EDTA in patients with excess xenobiotic metal toxicity and in other conditions.

  9. EDTA chelation reappraisal following new clinical trials and regular use in millions of patients: review of preliminary findings and risk/benefit assessment.

    PubMed

    Born, Tammy; Kontoghiorghe, Christina N; Spyrou, Aspasia; Kolnagou, Annita; Kontoghiorghes, George J

    2013-01-01

    EDTA chelation therapy is regularly used in thousands of patients worldwide. An FDA approval of more than 50 years ago for heavy metal detoxification prompted many physicians to use EDTA as an alternative medicine for many categories of patients. Recently, NIH initiated the so-called Trial to Assess Chelation Therapy (TACT), which has been designed to evaluate whether EDTA and high dose oral vitamins and mineral therapy could offer clinical, quality of life, and economic benefits for patients with a previous myocardial infraction. A 50% reduction of urinary Pb and improvement of systolic blood pressure was observed in 33 cardiovascular patients following 20 iv administrations. In another study involving 15 patients of different categories, EDTA also has been shown to be an effective and nontoxic chelator for the removal of xenobiotic metals such as Pb, Cd, Ni and Al. Administration of iv EDTA on weekly basis appears to be a sufficient and nontoxic protocol for treating patients with suspected overload and toxicity of xenobiotic metals especially Pb and Cd. The causative effect of xenobiotic metals in cancer, cardiovascular, neurodegenerative, renal and other diseases needs further investigation. Similarly, the use of EDTA chelation therapy in other conditions, which are not related to xenobiotic metal toxicity needs further investigation and confirmation of therapeutic use from controlled randomized clinical trials. Metal balance and drug interaction studies are required to clarify the risk/benefit assessment for the long term use of EDTA in patients with excess xenobiotic metal toxicity and in other conditions. PMID:22991933

  10. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage. PMID:23477199

  11. Artificial-turf playing fields: contents of metals, PAHs, PCBs, PCDDs and PCDFs, inhalation exposure to PAHs and related preliminary risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Menichini, Edoardo; Abate, Vittorio; Attias, Leonello; De Luca, Silvia; di Domenico, Alessandro; Fochi, Igor; Forte, Giovanni; Iacovella, Nicola; Iamiceli, Anna Laura; Izzo, Paolo; Merli, Franco; Bocca, Beatrice

    2011-11-01

    The artificial-turf granulates made from recycled rubber waste are of health concern due the possible exposure of users to dangerous substances present in the rubber, and especially to PAHs. In this work, we determined the contents of PAHs, metals, non-dioxin-like PCBs (NDL-PCBs), PCDDs and PCDFs in granulates, and PAH concentrations in air during the use of the field. The purposes were to identify some potential chemical risks and to roughly assess the risk associated with inhalation exposure to PAHs. Rubber granulates were collected from 13 Italian fields and analysed for 25 metals and nine PAHs. One further granulate was analysed for NDL-PCBs, PCDDs, PCDFs and 13 PAHs. Air samples were collected on filter at two fields, using respectively a high volume static sampler close to the athletes and personal samplers worn by the athletes, and at background locations outside the fields. In the absence of specific quality standards, we evaluated the measured contents with respect to the Italian standards for soils to be reclaimed as green areas. Zn concentrations (1 to 19 g/kg) and BaP concentrations (0.02 to 11 mg/kg) in granulates largely exceeded the pertinent standards, up to two orders of magnitude. No association between the origin of the recycled rubber and the contents of PAHs and metals was observed. The sums of NDL-PCBs and WHO-TE PCDDs+PCDFs were, respectively, 0.18 and 0.67×10(-5) mg/kg. The increased BaP concentrations in air, due to the use of the field, varied approximately from <0.01 to 0.4 ng/m(3), the latter referring to worst-case conditions as to the release of particle-bound PAHs. Based on the 0.4 ng/m(3) concentration, an excess lifetime cancer risk of 1×10(-6) was calculated for an intense 30-year activity. PMID:21907387

  12. Preliminary assessment of risk from toxic materials that might be mobilized in the decommissioning of Aberdeen Proving Ground Building E5032

    SciTech Connect

    Rosenblatt, D.H.; Brubaker, K.L.

    1991-12-01

    Aberdeen Proving Ground Building E5032 is scheduled for decommissioning, that is, for demolition. Because the building was formerly used for small-scale operations with incendiary and toxic chemical agents, it presents unusual concerns for occupational and public health safety during the demolition. For this reason, an anticipatory risk assessment was conducted, taking into consideration the building's history, properties of potential residual contaminants (particularly chemical and incendiary agents), and assumptions relating to meteorological conditions and envisioned modes of demolition. Safe maximum levels in concrete floors for the worst case were estimated to be: white phosphorus, 3200 mg/kg; mustard, 94 mg/kg; nerve agent GA (tabun), 6 mg/kg; cyanide, 500 mg/kg; and sulfide, 1400 mg/kg. These values will serve as planning guidance for the activities to follow. It is emphasized that the estimates must be reviewed, and perhaps revised, after sampling and analysis are completed, the demolition methodology is chosen, and dust emissions are measured under operating conditions.

  13. Preliminary assessment of risk from toxic materials that might be mobilized in the decommissioning of Aberdeen Proving Ground Building E5032

    SciTech Connect

    Rosenblatt, D.H.; Brubaker, K.L.

    1991-12-01

    Aberdeen Proving Ground Building E5032 is scheduled for decommissioning, that is, for demolition. Because the building was formerly used for small-scale operations with incendiary and toxic chemical agents, it presents unusual concerns for occupational and public health safety during the demolition. For this reason, an anticipatory risk assessment was conducted, taking into consideration the building`s history, properties of potential residual contaminants (particularly chemical and incendiary agents), and assumptions relating to meteorological conditions and envisioned modes of demolition. Safe maximum levels in concrete floors for the worst case were estimated to be: white phosphorus, 3200 mg/kg; mustard, 94 mg/kg; nerve agent GA (tabun), 6 mg/kg; cyanide, 500 mg/kg; and sulfide, 1400 mg/kg. These values will serve as planning guidance for the activities to follow. It is emphasized that the estimates must be reviewed, and perhaps revised, after sampling and analysis are completed, the demolition methodology is chosen, and dust emissions are measured under operating conditions.

  14. Optimal Temporal Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Simen, Patrick; deSouza, Laura; Cohen, Jonathan D.; Holmes, Philip

    2011-01-01

    Time is an essential feature of most decisions, because the reward earned from decisions frequently depends on the temporal statistics of the environment (e.g., on whether decisions must be made under deadlines). Accordingly, evolution appears to have favored a mechanism that predicts intervals in the seconds to minutes range with high accuracy on average, but significant variability from trial to trial. Importantly, the subjective sense of time that results is sufficiently imprecise that maximizing rewards in decision-making can require substantial behavioral adjustments (e.g., accumulating less evidence for a decision in order to beat a deadline). Reward maximization in many daily decisions therefore requires optimal temporal risk assessment. Here, we review the temporal decision-making literature, conduct secondary analyses of relevant published datasets, and analyze the results of a new experiment. The paper is organized in three parts. In the first part, we review literature and analyze existing data suggesting that animals take account of their inherent behavioral variability (their “endogenous timing uncertainty”) in temporal decision-making. In the second part, we review literature that quantitatively demonstrates nearly optimal temporal risk assessment with sub-second and supra-second intervals using perceptual tasks (with humans and mice) and motor timing tasks (with humans). We supplement this section with original research that tested human and rat performance on a task that requires finding the optimal balance between two time-dependent quantities for reward maximization. This optimal balance in turn depends on the level of timing uncertainty. Corroborating the reviewed literature, humans and rats exhibited nearly optimal temporal risk assessment in this task. In the third section, we discuss the role of timing uncertainty in reward maximization in two-choice perceptual decision-making tasks and review literature that implicates timing uncertainty

  15. Risk Assessment: Implications for Biologic Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ost, David H.

    1995-01-01

    Discusses risk assessment, including risk assessment as a modeling process, models and social values, political decision making, the public, and risk assessment techniques in the biology classroom. (MKR)

  16. Practical approaches to risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Brooke-Taylor, S

    2001-06-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing food regulations is growing with the globalization of our food supply. The World Trade Organization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. The relevant international organization for food standards, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, recognises risk analysis, and its component parts risk assessment, risk management and risk communication, as the basis for scientific decision-making. Risk assessment comprises two activities: hazard evaluation; and exposure estimation. A hazard may be chemical, microbiological or nutritional in origin. The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation by four examples involving: (1) food additives, (2) microbiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses, (3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  17. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  18. Computer Security Risk Assessment

    1992-02-11

    LAVA/CS (LAVA for Computer Security) is an application of the Los Alamos Vulnerability Assessment (LAVA) methodology specific to computer and information security. The software serves as a generic tool for identifying vulnerabilities in computer and information security safeguards systems. Although it does not perform a full risk assessment, the results from its analysis may provide valuable insights into security problems. LAVA/CS assumes that the system is exposed to both natural and environmental hazards and tomore » deliberate malevolent actions by either insiders or outsiders. The user in the process of answering the LAVA/CS questionnaire identifies missing safeguards in 34 areas ranging from password management to personnel security and internal audit practices. Specific safeguards protecting a generic set of assets (or targets) from a generic set of threats (or adversaries) are considered. There are four generic assets: the facility, the organization''s environment; the hardware, all computer-related hardware; the software, the information in machine-readable form stored both on-line or on transportable media; and the documents and displays, the information in human-readable form stored as hard-copy materials (manuals, reports, listings in full-size or microform), film, and screen displays. Two generic threats are considered: natural and environmental hazards, storms, fires, power abnormalities, water and accidental maintenance damage; and on-site human threats, both intentional and accidental acts attributable to a perpetrator on the facility''s premises.« less

  19. Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E.

    1995-09-01

    This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC.

  20. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk Context Scale.…

  1. Guidance for performing preliminary assessments under CERCLA

    SciTech Connect

    1991-09-01

    EPA headquarters and a national site assessment workgroup produced this guidance for Regional, State, and contractor staff who manage or perform preliminary assessments (PAs). EPA has focused this guidance on the types of sites and site conditions most commonly encountered. The PA approach described in this guidance is generally applicable to a wide variety of sites. However, because of the variability among sites, the amount of information available, and the level of investigative effort required, it is not possible to provide guidance that is equally applicable to all sites. PA investigators should recognize this and be aware that variation from this guidance may be necessary for some sites, particularly for PAs performed at Federal facilities, PAs conducted under EPA`s Environmental Priorities Initiative (EPI), and PAs at sites that have previously been extensively investigated by EPA or others. The purpose of this guidance is to provide instructions for conducting a PA and reporting results. This guidance discusses the information required to evaluate a site and how to obtain it, how to score a site, and reporting requirements. This document also provides guidelines and instruction on PA evaluation, scoring, and the use of standard PA scoresheets. The overall goal of this guidance is to assist PA investigators in conducting high-quality assessments that result in correct site screening or further action recommendations on a nationally consistent basis.

  2. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

  4. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment.

  5. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. PMID:24913749

  6. Preliminary dose assessment of the Chernobyl accident

    SciTech Connect

    Hull, A.P.

    1987-01-01

    From the major accident at Unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power station, a plume of airborne radioactive fission products was initially carried northwesterly toward Poland, thence toward Scandinavia and into Central Europe. Reports of the levels of radioactivity in a variety of media and of external radiation levels were collected in the Department of Energy's Emergency Operations Center and compiled into a data bank. Portions of these and other data which were obtained directly from published and official reports were utilized to make a preliminary assessment of the extent and magnitude of the external dose to individuals downwind from Chernobyl. Radioactive /sup 131/I was the predominant fission product. The time of arrival of the plume and the maximum concentrations of /sup 131/I in air, vegetation and milk and the maximum reported depositions and external radiation levels have been tabulated country by country. A large amount of the total activity in the release was apparently carried to a significant elevation. The data suggest that in areas where rainfall occurred, deposition levels were from ten to one-hundred times those observed in nearby ''dry'' locations. Sufficient spectral data were obtained to establish average release fractions and to establish a reference spectra of the other nuclides in the release. Preliminary calculations indicated that the collective dose equivalent to the population in Scandinavia and Central Europe during the first year after the Chernobyl accident would be about 8 x 10/sup 6/ person-rem. From the Soviet report, it appears that a first year population dose of about 2 x 10/sup 7/ person-rem (2 x 10/sup 5/ Sv) will be received by the population who were downwind of Chernobyl within the U.S.S.R. during the accident and its subsequent releases over the following week. 32 refs., 14 figs., 20 tabs.

  7. Topographical Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Phil Daling, PNNL

    2002-09-24

    TRA was developed as a computer tool for the DOE Office of River Protection (ORP) that will provides the capability to visualize and rapidly understand information about the risks associated with the River protection Project (RPP). Previously, technical and programmatic risk management within ORP had relied heavily on risk lists and other techniques that presented risk information but did not place it in perspective of the overall project. This made it difficult for ORP senior management to understand the risk information presented, prioritize their activities, and provide direction to ORP staff and contractors about how to manage specific risk events. The TRA visualization tool, provides the appropriate context and perspective that allows senior management to effectively manage risks. Basically, the TRA overlays information about risks associated with specific activities and their magnitudes on top of the project baseline schedule. this provides senior management with information about the magnitudes of specific risk events as well as their timing, and allows them to focus their attention and resources on the risks that merit attention and possible further action. The TRA tool can also be used to display other types of information associated with scheduled activities, such as cost to date, technical performance, schedule performance, etc. Additionally, the base of the 3-dimensional representation can be changed to other types of graphics, such as maps, process flow diagrams, etc., which allows the display of other types of informatio, such as hazards, health and safety risks, and system availability.

  8. Topographical Risk Assessment

    2002-09-24

    TRA was developed as a computer tool for the DOE Office of River Protection (ORP) that will provides the capability to visualize and rapidly understand information about the risks associated with the River protection Project (RPP). Previously, technical and programmatic risk management within ORP had relied heavily on risk lists and other techniques that presented risk information but did not place it in perspective of the overall project. This made it difficult for ORP seniormore » management to understand the risk information presented, prioritize their activities, and provide direction to ORP staff and contractors about how to manage specific risk events. The TRA visualization tool, provides the appropriate context and perspective that allows senior management to effectively manage risks. Basically, the TRA overlays information about risks associated with specific activities and their magnitudes on top of the project baseline schedule. this provides senior management with information about the magnitudes of specific risk events as well as their timing, and allows them to focus their attention and resources on the risks that merit attention and possible further action. The TRA tool can also be used to display other types of information associated with scheduled activities, such as cost to date, technical performance, schedule performance, etc. Additionally, the base of the 3-dimensional representation can be changed to other types of graphics, such as maps, process flow diagrams, etc., which allows the display of other types of informatio, such as hazards, health and safety risks, and system availability.« less

  9. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  10. Guide for ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    1998-04-01

    Ecological risk assessment evaluates the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors. Ecological risk assessment provides a critical element for environmental decision making by giving risk managers an approach for considering available scientific information along with the other factors they need to consider (e.g., social, legal, political, or economic) in selecting a course of action. The primary audience for this document is risk assessors and risk managers at EPA, although these Guidelines also may be useful to others outside the Agency.

  11. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factormore » (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis« less

  12. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Carlos Castillo, Jerel Nelson

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factor (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis

  13. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  14. Balancing risk: Ethical issues in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Longstreth, J.D.

    1992-06-01

    The last five decades have seen an explosive growth of information, accompanied by the development of a strong environmental movement. These two factors have been critical contributors to the development of the scientific discipline that has come to be called risk analysis or risk assessment. In this context, risk assessment can be described as an analytic approach used to organize large amounts of information from diverse disciplines so as to evaluate the possible impacts of pollution on human health and the environment. Early efforts in this field focused on the protection of human health. More recently, however, it has been realized that humans and their environment are intimately linked and that environmental impacts must also be evaluated. At some point, it seems likely that the joint goals of protecting human health and the environment may come into conflict. This essay reviews current developments in the assessment of risks both to humans and the environment in order to expose similarities and differences with the ultimate aim of opening a dialogue between scientists in the different disciplines so that evaluation strategies can be designed which will enable decision makers to make trade-offs between human health and environmental risk is an informed and egalitarian way.

  15. PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL, HEALTH AND SAFETY RISK ASSESSMENT ON THE INTEGRATION OF A PROCESS UTILIZING LOW-ENERGY SOLVENTS FOR CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE ENABLED BY A COMBINATION OF ENZYMES AND VACUUM REGENERATION WITH A SUBCRITICAL PC POWER PLANT

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzgerald, David; Vidal, Rafael; Russell, Tania; Babcock, Doosan; Freeman, Charles; Bearden, Mark; Whyatt, Greg; Liu, Kun; Frimpong, Reynolds; Lu, Kunlei; Salmon, Sonja; House, Alan; Yarborough, Erin

    2014-12-31

    The results of the preliminary environmental, health and safety (EH&S) risk assessment for an enzyme-activated potassium carbonate (K2CO3) solution post-combustion CO2 capture (PCC) plant, integrated with a subcritical pulverized coal (PC) power plant, are presented. The expected emissions during normal steady-state operation have been estimated utilizing models of the PCC plant developed in AspenTech’s AspenPlus® software, bench scale test results from the University of Kentucky, and industrial experience of emission results from a slipstream PCC plant utilizing amine based solvents. A review of all potential emission species and their sources was undertaken that identified two credible emission sources, the absorber off-gas that is vented to atmosphere via a stack and the waste removed from the PCC plant in the centrifuge used to reclaim enzyme and solvent. The conditions and compositions of the emissions were calculated and the potential EH&S effects were considered as well as legislative compliance requirements. Potential mitigation methods for emissions during normal operation have been proposed and solutions to mitigate uncontrolled releases of species have been considered. The potential emissions were found to pose no significant EH&S concerns and were compliant with the Federal legislation reviewed. The limitations in predicting full scale plant performance from bench scale tests have been noted and further work on a larger scale test unit is recommended to reduce the level of uncertainty.

  16. Risk and Risk Assessment in Environmental Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chiras, Daniel D.

    1982-01-01

    Risk assessment (the identification of hazards, the determination of the probability of a hazardous event occurring, and an estimation of the severity of such an event's occurrence) is suggested as a technique to be used to analyze current issues in environmental education in an objective manner. (PEB)

  17. Suicidal ideation: Are refugees more at risk compared to host population? Findings from a preliminary assessment in a refugee community in Nigeria.

    PubMed

    Akinyemi, O O; Atilola, O; Soyannwo, T

    2015-12-01

    Among the serious mental health problems that may be associated with being a refugee is suicidal behavior. This study aimed to assess the prevalence and correlates of suicidal ideation among African refugees in Oru-Ijebu Nigeria. Suicidal ideation was assessed using appropriate section in the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview while the brief version of the WHO Quality of Life was used to assess quality of life as a clinical variable. Study involved 444 refugees and 527 non-refugee member of host community. Result showed that the prevalence of suicidal ideation was significantly higher among the refugees than the non-refugee comparison group (27.3% vs. 17.3%; p<0.001). Social status and quality of life was significantly poorer among the refugees compared with their non-refugee members of same community. Quality of life was the only factor independently associated with suicidal ideations among refugees. In conclusion, the study shows that the prevalence of suicidal ideation is significantly higher among the refugees than the non-refugee members of the host community and calls for innovative ways of extending mental health services to refugees at the study site.

  18. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  19. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  20. Risk assessment in international operations.

    PubMed

    Stricklin, Daniela L

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umeå has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently. PMID:18325560

  1. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  2. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  3. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  4. Preliminary risk assessment of the wet landscape option for reclamation of oil sands mine tailings: bioassays with mature fine tailings pore water.

    PubMed

    Madill, R E; Orzechowski, M T; Chen, G; Brownlee, B G; Bunce, N J

    2001-06-01

    Chemical and biological assays have been carried out on the "pore water" that results from the settling of the tailings that accompany bitumen recovery from the Athabasca oil sands. Examination of the nonacidic extracts of pore water by gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy allowed the identification of numerous two- to three-ring polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs), to a total concentration of 2.6 micrograms/L of pore water. The PACs were biodegraded by microflora naturally present in the pore water. Acute toxicity was associated principally with the acidic fraction (naphthenic acids) of pore water extracts according to the Microtox assay; other work has shown that acute toxicity dissipates fairly rapidly. Both individual PACs and concentrated pore water extracts showed minimal levels of binding to the rat Ah receptor and induced minimal ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase activity in primary rat hepatocytes, showing an insignificant risk of inducing monooxygenase activity. Taken together with previous work showing negligible mutagenic activity of these extracts, we conclude that it should be possible to develop tailing slurries into biologically productive artificial lakes.

  5. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-03-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe a qualitative risk assessment process that supplements the requirements of DOE/AL 5481.1B. Although facility managers have a choice of assessing risk either quantitatively or qualitatively, trade offs are involved in making the most appropriate choice for a given application. The results that can be obtained from a quantitative risk assessment are significantly more robust than those results derived from a qualitative approach. However, the advantages derived from quantitative risk assessment are achieved at a greater expenditure of money, time and convenience. This document provides the elements of a framework for performing a much less costly qualitative risk assessment, while retaining the best attributes of quantitative methods. The approach discussed herein will; (1) provide facility managers with the tools to prepare consistent, site wide assessments, and (2) aid the reviewers who may be tasked to evaluate the assessments. Added cost/benefit measures of the qualitative methodology include the identification of mechanisms for optimally allocating resources for minimizing risk in an expeditious, and fiscally responsible manner.

  6. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  7. Caries management by risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Young, Douglas A; Featherstone, John D B

    2013-02-01

    Caries disease is multifactorial. Whether caries disease will be expressed and damage dental hard tissue is dependent on the patient's own unique make-up of pathogenic risk factors and protective factors. Objectives This manuscript will review the science of managing caries disease based on assessing caries risk. Methods The caries balance/imbalance model and a practical caries risk assessment procedure for patients aged 6 years through adult will illustrate how treatment options can be based on caries risk. Results Neither the forms nor the clinical protocols are meant to imply there is currently only one correct way this can be achieved, rather are used in this manuscript as examples only. Conclusions It is important to have the forms and protocols simple and easy to understand when implementing caries management by risk assessment into clinical practice. The science of CAMBRA based on the caries balance/imbalance model was reviewed and an example protocol was presented.

  8. The risk assessment information system

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.

    1998-06-01

    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at http://risk.lsd.ornl.gov/homepage/rap{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at http://www.doe.gov/riskcenter/home.html.

  9. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  10. Carcinogen risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed.

  11. Space Radiation Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blakely, E.

    Evaluation of potential health effects from radiation exposure during and after deep space travel is important for the future of manned missions To date manned missions have been limited to near-Earth orbits with the moon our farthest distance from earth Historical space radiation career exposures for astronauts from all NASA Missions show that early missions involved total exposures of less than about 20 mSv With the advent of Skylab and Mir total career exposure levels increased to a maximum of nearly 200 mSv Missions in deep space with the requisite longer duration of the missions planned may pose greater risks due to the increased potential for exposure to complex radiation fields comprised of a broad range of radiation types and energies from cosmic and unpredictable solar sources The first steps in the evaluation of risks are underway with bio- and physical-dosimetric measurements on both commercial flight personnel and international space crews who have experience on near-earth orbits and the necessary theoretical modeling of particle-track traversal per cell including the contributing effects of delta-rays in particle exposures An assumption for biologic effects due to exposure of radiation in deep space is that they differ quantitatively and qualitatively from that on earth The dose deposition and density pattern of heavy charged particles are very different from those of sparsely ionizing radiation The potential risks resulting from exposure to radiation in deep space are cancer non-cancer and genetic effects Radiation from

  12. Preliminary Investigation of a Video-Based Stimulus Preference Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snyder, Katie; Higbee, Thomas S.; Dayton, Elizabeth

    2012-01-01

    Video clips may be an effective format for presenting complex stimuli in preference assessments. In this preliminary study, we evaluated the correspondence between preference hierarchies generated from preference assessments that included either toys or videos of the toys. The top-ranked item corresponded in both assessments for 5 of the 6…

  13. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  14. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  15. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  16. Risk assessment of sensitizing agents.

    PubMed

    Gerberick, G F

    1994-01-01

    This review describes an approach that has been used to assess the skin sensitization risk of new product ingredients prior to and after marketing. The risk assessment process utilizes a comparative toxicological approach in which data on the inherent toxicity of a material and the exposure to it through manufacturing or consumer use or foreseeable misuse are integrated and compared with data generated by 'benchmark' materials of similar chemistry or product application, or both. This approach has been valuable in providing an accurate assessment of skin sensitization potential and the basis for eventual safe marketing of a wide range of consumer household and personal care products and topical pharmaceuticals.

  17. EPA's neurotoxicity risk assessment guidelines.

    PubMed

    Boyes, W K; Dourson, M L; Patterson, J; Tilson, H A; Sette, W F; MacPhail, R C; Li, A A; O'Donoghue, J L

    1997-12-01

    The proposed Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment Guidelines (U.S. EPA, 1995c Fed. Reg. 60(192), 52032-52056) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) were the subject of a workshop at the 1997 Meeting of the Society of Toxicology. The workshop considered the role of guidelines in the risk assessment process, the primary features, scientific basis, and implications of the guidelines for EPA program offices, as well as for industrial neurotoxicologists from the perspectives of both pesticides and toxic substances regulation. The U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS, 1983, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process) established a framework for distinguishing risk management from risk assessment, the latter being the result of integrating hazard identification, hazard characterization, and exposure assessment data. The guidelines are intended to establish operating principles that will be used when examining data in a risk assessment context. The proposed neurotoxicity risk assessment guidelines provide a conceptual framework for deciding whether or not a chemically induced effect can be considered to be evidence of neurotoxicity. Topics in the proposed guidelines include structural and functional effects, dose-response and -duration considerations, and relationships between effects. Among the issues that must be considered are the multiplicity of chemical effects, the levels of biological organization in the nervous system, and the tests, measurements, and protocols used. Judgment of the adversity of an effect depends heavily on the amount and types of data available. The attribution of a chemically induced effect to an action on the nervous system depends on several factors such as the quality of the study, the nature of the outcome, dose-response and time-response relationships, and the possible involvement of nonneural factors. The guidelines will also serve as a reference for those conducting neurotoxicity testing, as well as establish a

  18. Collision risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sánchez Ortiz, N.; Belló Mora, M.; Graziano, M.; Pina Caballero, F.; Sánchez Pérez, J. M.; Klinkrad, H.

    2001-10-01

    Avoidance of near misses or collisions is required for almost all satellites on orbit, but it is of particular interest for manned missions and spacecraft at densely populated regions. In order to avoid these possible collisions, it is needed to determine a possible conjunction and its associated uncertainty. Two main constraints must be taken into account when a tool to forecast the collision risk of an object is being developed: the high number of objects in space and the accuracy of the catalogued object data. The number of objects on Earth orbit makes impossible to propagate all the catalogued objects, thus filtering and parallel processing techniques are presented. The accuracy of the catalogued object data and the propagation of the error over the time identify a position ellipsoid of error, whose behaviour has an important influence on some parameters on the filtering techniques and the way the collision probability is computed. Some collision probability methods are presented.

  19. Risk assessment methodologies for biotechnology impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillett, James W.

    1986-07-01

    By combining hazard assessment of effects of a potential biotechnology product with exposure assessments based on study of the genetically engineered organism's fate, conclusions may be reached about the risk involved in release of the product to the environment. In order to make this risk assessment, criteria (including regulatory endpoints) must be established and then developed further against a data base from well-accepted tests. Other aspects requiring research and development include test evaluation, quality assurance, statistical procedures, and methods of identifying and monitoring not only the nominal organism(s) in the products, but also any contaminating material or organisms to which the genetically engineered components may be transferred in the environment. Application of microcosm technology to testing of genetically engineered organisms is expected to be important, since these systems may be used safely to understand fate and effects prior to (or in place of) testing the product in the environment. Limitations in the use of microcosms may be offset by the cost-effectiveness and incisiveness of results, as has been shown for other pollutants. Risk management for biotechnology products currently lacks an adequate background, but components of the process exist or can be developed. New resources, in terms of personnel, training, facilities, and funding, will be needed in order to apply the risk assessment paradigm used for toxic chemicals and pesticides. We will need to know:

  20. Topics in cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Olin, S S; Neumann, D A; Foran, J A; Scarano, G J

    1997-01-01

    The estimation of carcinogenic risks from exposure to chemicals has become an integral part of the regulatory process in the United States within the past decade. With it have come considerable controversy and debate over the scientific merits and shortcomings of the methods and their impact on risk management decisions. In this paper we highlight selected topics of current interest in the debate. As an indication of the level of public concern, we note the major recent reports on risk assessment from the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S Environmental Protection Agency's proposed substantial revisions to its Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. We identify and briefly frame several key scientific issues in cancer risk assessment, including the growing recognition of the importance of understanding the mode of action of carcinogenesis in experimental animals and in humans, the methodologies and challenges in quantitative extrapolation of cancer risks, and the question of how to assess and account for human variability in susceptibility to carcinogens. In addition, we discuss initiatives in progress that may fundamentally alter the carcinogenesis testing paradigm. PMID:9114281

  1. Earthquake Risk Assessment and Risk Transfer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liechti, D.; Zbinden, A.; Rüttener, E.

    Research on risk assessment of natural catastrophes is very important for estimating its economical and social impact. The loss potentials of such disasters (e.g. earthquake and storms) for property owners, insurance and nationwide economies are driven by the hazard, the damageability (vulnerability) of buildings and infrastructures and depend on the ability to transfer these losses to different parties. In addition, the geographic distribution of the exposed values, the uncertainty of building vulnerability and the individual deductible are main factors determining the size of a loss. The deductible is the key element that steers the distribution of losses between insured and insurer. Therefore the risk analysis concentrates on deductible and vulnerability of insured buildings and maps their variations to allow efficient decisions. With consideration to stochastic event sets, the corresponding event losses can be modelled as expected loss grades of a Beta probability density function. Based on deductible and standard deviation of expected loss grades, the loss for the insured and for the insurer can be quantified. In addition, the varying deductible impact on different geographic regions can be described. This analysis has been carried out for earthquake insurance portfolios with various building types and different deductibles. Besides quantifying loss distributions between insured and insurer based on uncertainty assumptions and deductible consideration, mapping yields ideas to optimise the risk transfer process and can be used for developing risk mitigation strategies.

  2. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. PMID:25321142

  3. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03883.001 PMID:25321142

  4. PRELIMINARY INVESTIGATION OF A VIDEO-BASED STIMULUS PREFERENCE ASSESSMENT

    PubMed Central

    Snyder, Katie; Higbee, Thomas S; Dayton, Elizabeth

    2012-01-01

    Video clips may be an effective format for presenting complex stimuli in preference assessments. In this preliminary study, we evaluated the correspondence between preference hierarchies generated from preference assessments that included either toys or videos of the toys. The top-ranked item corresponded in both assessments for 5 of the 6 participants, and the top- and bottom-ranked items corresponded for 4 participants. The implications of these results for future research on video preference assessments are discussed. PMID:22844148

  5. Preliminary investigation of a video-based stimulus preference assessment.

    PubMed

    Snyder, Katie; Higbee, Thomas S; Dayton, Elizabeth

    2012-01-01

    Video clips may be an effective format for presenting complex stimuli in preference assessments. In this preliminary study, we evaluated the correspondence between preference hierarchies generated from preference assessments that included either toys or videos of the toys. The top-ranked item corresponded in both assessments for 5 of the 6 participants, and the top- and bottom-ranked items corresponded for 4 participants. The implications of these results for future research on video preference assessments are discussed.

  6. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    SciTech Connect

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-11-13

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  7. Toxicological risk assessment. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect

    Clayson, D.B.; Krewski, D.; Munro, I.

    1985-01-01

    This book contains the following chapters: Epidemiological Methods for Assessment of Human Cancer Risk. Assessment of Human Exposure to Environmental Contaminants with Special Reference to Cancer. Influence of Nutrition, Immunologic Status, and Other Factors on Development of Cancer. Significance of Benefits in Regulatory Decision Making. Measuring Health Benefits. Food Safety Regulations. Case Study-Asbestos. Vinyl Chloride - A Cancer Case Study. An Integrated Approach to the Study of Formaldehyde Carcinogenicity in Rats and Mice. Determination of Human Risk in Regulating Polychlorinated Biphenyls Saccharin - A Bitter-Sweet Case.

  8. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  9. Human Health Effects, Task Force Assessment, Preliminary Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aronow, Wilbert S.; And Others

    Presented in this preliminary report is one of seven assessments conducted by a special task force of Project Clean Air, the Human Health Effects Task Force. The reports summarize assessments of the state of knowledge on various air pollution problems, particularly in California, and make tentative recommendations as to what the University of…

  10. Decade of karst risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yolkin, Vladimir

    2010-05-01

    Karst is one of the most hazardous processes on the Earth, at about 13% of the Russian area, including more than 300 towns and thousands of smaller settlements with 19% of the total population of Russia, are subject to karst deformations (Ragozin, 1994). During the time period 2000-2004, regional karst hazard and risk assessment was developed as an example of the Tatarstan Republic (Ragozin and Yolkin, 2003). The published paper was the first Russian research paper dedicated the technique and cartographic examples of probabilistic-deterministic risk assessment from karst processes. At present time, the technique of assessment of karst risk is improved, as well as investigations with reference to various areal or linear recipients are performed. In particular, for the pipeline systems the assessment of karst economic risk adapts, according to two scenarios: the pessimistic one (the most adverse in consequences) and the most probable (Yolkin and Anikeev, 2007, Yolkin, 2008,2009). By karst risk we mean the probabilistic index of hazard of karst and karst-suffosion sinkholes and surface settlements established for a certain object as it possible losses in various spheres for a given time period. Quantitative karst-hazard and risk assessment is carried out on the basis of the analysis of geological structure of territory, hydrogeological and engineering-geological conditions of territory, identification and prediction of karst hazards in time and space, assessment of vulnerability of objects to karst hazards, ranking and mapping of karst hazards as well as karst economic, social risks of losses. The obtained values of economic or social risk are the basis for choosing engineering protection measures, alternative design solutions and for estimating service conditions. It is necessary to mention that the procedure of vulnerability assessment is poorly developed with reference not only to karst sinkholes, but also to dangerous geological processes in general. For

  11. Cove Point liquefied natural gas operations: a preliminary review of the risk

    SciTech Connect

    Margulies, T.S.

    1980-12-01

    In response to a request from Calvert County, Maryland the Energy and Coastal Zone Administration has made an effort to evaluate the impacts associated with the transport of LNG to Cove Point. This report discusses a study that has been performed to provide a preliminary review of the risk to the public. Several tasks included in the study were: (1) Review of safety and preventive measures currently being used to prevent a hazardous release of LNG; (2) Review of the calculated risk associated with tanker accidents including a discussion of the probabilistic ship collision and vapor cloud dispersion models used in a risk assessment of the Cove Point operation by Science Applications, Inc.; (3) provide an overview of risk assessment techniques applicable to marine transportation and facility problems in the event that further expansion of the Cove Point facility or a new facility is proposed and; (4) develop information on the population distribution surrounding Cove Point.

  12. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  13. Collegiate Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, David S.; Janosik, Steven M.

    An instrument to help administrators assess the liability resulting from alcohol-related activities on the college campus is presented. The hazards and associated liability of these events can be reduced by developing an aggressive risk management strategy designed to inform, educate, and coordinate the actions of individuals and groups associated…

  14. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  15. Picillo Farm ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Under the direction of US Environmental Protection Agency, Region 1, a baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems located on-site and off-site/downstream of a Superfund site in Coventry, Rhode Island. Surveys of biota and ecosystems were focused in the vicinity of 26 soil, sediment, and surface water sampling locations used for the RI/FS site contamination assessment, to cross-link data on biological receptors to site-specific habitat maps. Classes of contaminants of concern (COCs), selected independently for each medium based on exceedances of ecotoxicity criteria, for which risks to one or more indicator communities and species were calculated, included VOCs, SVOCs, metals, PCBs and pesticides. Simple hazard quotients were used to estimate risks for benthic and pelagic communities of the aquatic and wetland exposure zones, using AWQC and NOAA sediment guidelines. These aquatic criteria also were applied to a site-specific exposure models for all life stages of the Green Frog (Rana clamitans). To complement the benthic invertebrate risk estimates, site-derived sediments also were used for toxicity tests of Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca. Published, species-specific and/or extrapolated toxicity effects endpoints were used in site-specific, mathematical food chain exposure assessment models for the Amedcan Woodcock (Scolopax minor), Short-tailed Shrew (Blarina brevicauda) and Mink (Mustela vison), to estimate organismal risks for a variety of foraging scenarios within one or more exposure zone. Incremental site contributions to risks from metals were inferred using local background data, whereas all risks from organic compounds were assumed to be site-derived.

  16. OVERCOMING OBSTACLES TO POPULATIONS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Driven by management goals, statutory requirements and stakeholder interests, populations of wildlife and aquatic organisms often are the assessment endpoint entities (assessment populations) identified in site-specific ecological risk assessments. Yet, risks to populations are ...

  17. Pilot Implementation and Preliminary Evaluation of START:AV Assessments in Secure Juvenile Correctional Facilities.

    PubMed

    Desmarais, Sarah L; Sellers, Brian G; Viljoen, Jodi L; Cruise, Keith R; Nicholls, Tonia L; Dvoskin, Joel A

    2012-01-01

    The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV) is a new structured professional judgment guide for assessing short-term risks in adolescents. The scheme may be distinguished from other youth risk assessment and treatment planning instruments by its inclusion of 23 dynamic factors that are each rated for both vulnerability and strength. In addition, START:AV is also unique in that it focuses on multiple adverse outcomes-namely, violence, self-harm, suicide, unauthorized leave, substance abuse, self-neglect, victimization, and general offending-over the short-term (i.e., weeks to months) rather than long-term (i.e., years). This paper describes a pilot implementation and preliminary evaluation of START:AV in three secure juvenile correctional facilities in the southern United States. Specifically, we examined the descriptive characteristics and psychometric properties of START:AV assessments completed by 21 case managers on 291 adolescent offenders (250 boys and 41 girls) at the time of admission. Results provide preliminary support for the feasibility of completing START:AV assessments as part of routine practice. Findings also highlight differences in the characteristics of START:AV assessments for boys and girls and differential associations between the eight START:AV risk domains. Though results are promising, further research is needed to establish the reliability and validity of START:AV assessments completed in the field. PMID:23316116

  18. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment familiarization training

    SciTech Connect

    Phillabaum, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    Philadelphia Electric Company (PECo) created a Nuclear Group Risk and Reliability Assessment Program Plan in order to focus the utilization of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in support of Limerick Generating Station and Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The continuation of a PRA program was committed by PECo to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) prior to be the issuance of an operating license for Limerick Unit 1. It is believed that increased use of PRA techniques to support activities at Limerick and Peach Bottom will enhance PECo's overall nuclear excellence. Training for familiarization with PRA is designed for attendance once by all nuclear group personnel to understand PRA and its potential effect on their jobs. The training content describes the history of PRA and how it applies to PECo's nuclear activities. Key PRA concepts serve as the foundation for the familiarization training. These key concepts are covered in all classes to facilitate an appreciation of the remaining material, which is tailored to the audience. Some of the concepts covered are comparison of regulatory philosophy to PRA techniques, fundamentals of risk/success, risk equation/risk summation, and fault trees and event trees. Building on the concepts, PRA insights and applications are then described that are tailored to the audience.

  20. [Predictive microbiology and risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Hildebrandt, G; Kleer, J

    2004-05-01

    Predictive microbiology (predictive modelling PM), in spite of its limits and short-comings, may often contribute to a reduction of the problems arising when HACCP systems are established or microbiological risk assessment is done. Having identified the agents which constitute a risk and the contamination rate and density in the raw material, the influences of production steps and storage on these microorganisms have to be examined. Finally, there should be an exposure assessment, i.e. an estimate of the contamination density in the final product at the time of consumption. Should the exposure assessment together with data from dose response assessments reveal a potential for intake of inacceptable numbers of organisms, the risk identified has to be characterized. As a consequence, risk management should result in a modification of the composition of the product and/or of the production process so that the risk does not surpass an acceptable limit. For this approach it is indispensable to have product- and process-specific information on the multiplication of pathogens prior to heat treatment, on reduction of their density by thermal treatment and on growth or dying of organisms having survived heat treatment or penetrated into the product after heat treatment as post-process contaminant. Commonly, challenge tests are conducted to provide such information. But they are time consuming and, as their results are only valid for the specific product tested and the conditions prevailing during the experiment, the have to be repeated if there is any modification of intrinsic or extrinsic factors. At least partially, the PM may replace the challenge tests. The efficiency of the models is rated particularly high if they are used already at the stage of product development when the question has to be answered whether a planned recipe or process of production are already save or have to be modified to become save. PMID:15233338

  1. Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

  2. Preliminary assessment of pump IST effectiveness

    SciTech Connect

    DiBiasio, A.; Grove, E.; Carbonaro, J.

    1994-06-01

    A preliminary review of Inservice Testing (IST) effectiveness for Code Class 1, 2, and 3 pumps at nuclear power plants was performed. IST requirements are specified by ASME Section XI, and the Operations and Maintenance Standard (OM Part 6). The INPO NPRDS database was used to provide failure reports for these components for 1988 to 1992. This time frame coincides with the issuance of Generic Letter 89-04, which resulted in a more consistent application of the requirements by the licensees. For this time period, 2585 pump failures were reported. A review of these failures indicated that the majority (71.6%) were due to external leakage, and were excluded from this study since these events typically do not affect pump operability and are not detected by the measurement of IST parameters. Of the remaining 733 events, a review was performed to identify the primary failure causes, failure modes, and method of detection. Plant testing programs, consisting of IST, surveillance testing, and special testing, detected approximately 40% of these occurrences. Others were detected through operational abnormalities, routine and incidental observations, alarms, and while performing maintenance. This paper provides a discussion of the results of the study.

  3. Preliminary assessment of Termoskan observations of Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, B.; Naraeva, M. K.; Selivanov, A. S.; Betts, B. H.; Svitek, T.; Kharlamov, V. D.; Romanov, A. V.; Santee, M. L.; Gektin, Y. M.; Fomin, D. A.; Paige, D. A.; Panfilov, A. S.; Crisp, D.; Head, J. W.; Murchie, S. L.; Martin, T. Z.

    1991-02-01

    The limited set of high-resolution observations of the 8-12 micron thermal emission from Mars' equatorial regions by the Termoskan instrument onboard the Phobos '88 spacecraft in February and March of 1989 is considered. Observations were also simultaneously acquired in the 0.5 to 1.0 micron region. A combined U.S. and Soviet scientific team made a preliminary quantitative evaluation of about 25 percent of the entire data set. It is found that there is a close agreement with the Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper brightness temperatures, confirming the accuracy of the Termoskan system and calibration. A novel pattern of emission from particles was observed in the morning and assumed to be water or ice. Thermal emission from surface features is varied and distinct down to the limit of resolution. The presence of unusually insulating material has been detected in the uppermost fraction of a millimeter of the Martian surface in places where the shadow of Phobos briefly eclipsed by the surface.

  4. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  5. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  6. Preliminary findings of an intervention integrating modified directly observed therapy and risk reduction counseling.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, C G; Freels, S; Creticos, C M; Oltean, A; Douglas, R

    2007-04-01

    Various interventions have been proposed to address these ongoing needs of HIV-positive patients as they encounter challenges with medication adherence and risk reduction. This report presents the findings of a study that pilots 'DAART+', an intervention that integrates modified directly observed therapy (MDOT), and risk reduction counseling for a population of marginally housed, substance-using persons. The pilot study intended to assess the feasibility of the intervention and to obtain data to assess the intervention's potential effectiveness. The preliminary data reveal that 83% of participants who completed the intervention (n=18) had undetectable viral load (VL) (VL< or =400 copies/mL) which represents a 2.15 log(10) decrease from baseline. Risk behaviors also changed modestly with self-reported increases in condom usage.

  7. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    PubMed

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China. PMID:27363124

  8. The OPTIONS model of sexual risk assessment for adolescents.

    PubMed

    Lusczakoski, Kathryn D; Rue, Lisa A

    2012-03-01

    Typically, clinical evaluations of adolescents' sexual risk is based on inquiring about past sexual activity, which is limited by not including an adolescent's cognitive decision making regarding their past sexual decisions. This study describes the novel OPTIONS framework for assessing adolescent sexual risk including three general categories of risk (e.g., primary, secondary, and tertiary risk), which is designed to overcome the limitation of action-based assessment of risk and improve practitioners' ability to assess the levels of sexual risk. A convenience sample of 201 older adolescents (18-19 years of age) completed an online version of the Relationship Options Survey (ROS), designed to measure the OPTIONS sexual risk assessment. Bivariate correlation among the subscales functioned in the hypothesized manner, with all correlations being statistically significant. Using the OPTIONS model, 22.4% participants were classified as high risk primary, 7.0% participants were classified as high risk secondary, and 27.4% participants were classified as high risk tertiary. The study provided preliminary evidence for OPTIONS model of sexual assessment, which provides a more tailored evaluation by including cognitive decisions regarding an adolescent's sexual actions.

  9. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements. PMID:27800443

  10. Disability and work: risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Meusz, C

    Recent parliamentary debate has brought the rights of disabled people back into the spotlight of media attention. In the workplace, the occupational health nurse (OHN) is uniquely placed to make a positive contribution to the achievement of equal opportunities for people with disabilities. The author describes a risk assessment approach to the occupational health and safety of disabled persons and their employers. Such approaches can help to ensure that the work skills of all employees are used to maximum potential.

  11. Analytical Chemistry Core Capability Assessment - Preliminary Report

    SciTech Connect

    Barr, Mary E.; Farish, Thomas J.

    2012-05-16

    The concept of 'core capability' can be nebulous one. Even at a fairly specific level, where core capability equals maintaining essential services, it is highly dependent upon the perspective of the requestor. Samples are submitted to analytical services because the requesters do not have the capability to conduct adequate analyses themselves. Some requests are for general chemical information in support of R and D, process control, or process improvement. Many analyses, however, are part of a product certification package and must comply with higher-level customer quality assurance requirements. So which services are essential to that customer - just those for product certification? Does the customer also (indirectly) need services that support process control and improvement? And what is the timeframe? Capability is often expressed in terms of the currently utilized procedures, and most programmatic customers can only plan a few years out, at best. But should core capability consider the long term where new technologies, aging facilities, and personnel replacements must be considered? These questions, and a multitude of others, explain why attempts to gain long-term consensus on the definition of core capability have consistently failed. This preliminary report will not try to define core capability for any specific program or set of programs. Instead, it will try to address the underlying concerns that drive the desire to determine core capability. Essentially, programmatic customers want to be able to call upon analytical chemistry services to provide all the assays they need, and they don't want to pay for analytical chemistry services they don't currently use (or use infrequently). This report will focus on explaining how the current analytical capabilities and methods evolved to serve a variety of needs with a focus on why some analytes have multiple analytical techniques, and what determines the infrastructure for these analyses. This information will be

  12. Risk assessment of shellfish toxins.

    PubMed

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-11-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  13. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-01-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  14. The Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (ERASOR): preliminary psychometric data.

    PubMed

    Worling, James R

    2004-06-01

    The Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (ERASOR) is an empirically guided checklist designed to assist clinicians to estimate the short-term risk of a sexual reoffense for youth aged 12-18 years of age. The ERASOR provides objective coding instructions for 25 risk factors (16 dynamic and 9 static). To investigate the psychometric properties, risk ratings were collected from 28 clinicians who evaluated 136 adolescent males (aged 12-18 years) following comprehensive, clinical assessments. Preliminary psychometric data (i.e., interrater agreement, item-total correlation, internal consistency) were found to be supportive of the reliability and item composition of the tool. ERASOR ratings also significantly discriminated adolescents based on whether or not they had previously been sanctioned for a prior sexual offense. PMID:15326883

  15. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis; Volume 2, Figures [and] Volume 3, Technical Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

    1991-05-31

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history.

  16. Risk based guideline values and the development of preliminary remediation goals

    SciTech Connect

    Brothers, R.A.; Cox, D.M.; Guty, J.L.; Miller, D.B.; Motheramgari, K.; Stinnette, S.E.

    1995-02-01

    Risk managers at federal facilities often need a risk-based tool to rapidly assess the possible human health risks of large numbers of sites before completing a baseline risk assessment. Risk-based concentrations, based on Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) development methodology, can be used as screening guideline values. We have developed a set of guideline values (GVs) for the Mound Facility at Miamisburg, Ohio, that are risk based, decision-making tools. The GVs are used (with regulatory approval) to rapidly assess the possibility that sites may be considered for {open_quotes}no action{close_quotes} decisions. The GVs are neither PRGs nor final remedial action levels. Development of the GVs on a facilitywide basis incorporated known contaminants of potential concern, physical and chemical characteristics of contaminated media, current and potential future land uses, and exposure pathway assumptions. Because no one site was used in the development process, the GVs can be applied (after consideration of the land use and exposure potential) to any site on the facility. The facilitywide approach will streamline the PRG development process by minimizing the efforts to develop site-specific PRGs for each operable unit at a considerable saving of time and effort.

  17. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed Central

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E.; Dinu, Irina

    2015-01-01

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario—Tainted blood transfusion infection risk—That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making. PMID:26287224

  18. Preliminary results of Aruba wind resource assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Guda, M.H.

    1996-12-31

    As part of a project to assess the possibilities for wind energy utilitization in the Dutch Antilles islands, windspeed and -direction data were collected in Aruba for two years, from March 1992 to February 1994. Five sites that were estimated to be representative for the islands` wind regimes, were monitored during this period: two sites on the windward coast, one east and one west; two inland sites, again one east and one west, and one site topping the cliffs overlooking the eastern windward coast. Additionally, twenty years worth of data were analyzed for the reference site at the airport, which is in the middle part of the island, on the leeward coast. Correlation calculations between these data and the data for the project sites were performed, in order to establish a methodology for estimating the long-term behavior of the wind regimes at these sites. 8 figs., 3 tabs.

  19. ECO 201: Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The objectives of this course is to provide participants with knowledge about the fundamentals of ecological risk assessment. A brief history of how ecological risk assessment has evolved over time and how it is both similar to and different from human health risk assessment wil...

  20. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  1. Preliminary Assessment of Overweight Mainline Vehicles

    SciTech Connect

    Siekmann, Adam; Capps, Gary J; Lascurain, Mary Beth

    2011-11-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration requested information regarding overweight and oversized vehicle traffic entering inspection stations (ISs) in order to develop strategies for future research efforts and possibly help guide regulatory issues involving overweight commercial motor vehicles (CMVs). For a period of one month, inspection stations in Knox County and Greene County, Tennessee, recorded overweight and oversized vehicles that entered these ISs. During this period, 435 CMVs were recorded using an electronic form filled out by enforcement personnel at the IS. Of the 435 CMVs recorded, 381 had weight information documented with them. The majority (52.2%) of the vehicles recorded were five-axle combination vehicles, and 50.6% of all the vehicles were permitted to operate above the legal weight limit in Tennessee, which is 80,000 lb for vehicles with five or more axles. Only 16.8% of the CMVs recorded were overweight gross (11.5% of permitted vehicles) and 54.1% were overweight on an axle group. The low percentage of overweight gross CMVs was because only 45 of the vehicles over 80,000 lb. were not permitted. On average, axles that were overweight were 2,000 lb. over the legal limit for an axle or group of axles. Of the vehicles recorded, 172 vehicles were given a North American Standard (NAS) inspection during the assessment. Of those, 69% of the inspections were driver-only inspections (Level III) and only 25% of the inspections had a vehicle component (such as a Level I or Level II). The remaining 6% of inspections did not have valid Aspen numbers; the type of was inspection unknown. Data collected on the types of trailers of each vehicle showed that about half of the recorded CMVs could realistically be given a Level I (full vehicle and driver) inspection; this estimate was solely based on trailer type. Enforcement personnel at ISs without an inspection pit have difficulty fully inspecting certain vehicles due to low clearance below the trailer

  2. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 1

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication) are discussed. PMID:27800435

  3. Metabolism, variability and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dorne, J L C M

    2010-02-01

    improve the risk assessment of chemical mixtures were explored (1) harmonization of the use of uncertainty factors for human and ecological risk assessment using mechanistic descriptors (2) use of toxicokinetics interaction data to derive UFs for chemical mixtures. The use of toxicokinetics data in risk assessment are discussed together with future approaches including sound statistical approaches to optimise predictability of models and recombinant technology/toxicokinetics assays to identify metabolic routes for chemicals and screen mixtures of environmental health importance. PMID:19932147

  4. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    PubMed

    Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Mach, Megan E; Martone, Rebecca G; Singh, Gerald G; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M A

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  5. Hellsgate Winter Range : Wildlife Mitigation Project. Preliminary Environmental Assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1995-01-01

    The Bonneville Power Administration proposes funding the Hellsgate Winter Range Wildlife Mitigation Project in cooperation with the Colville Convederated Tribes and Bureau of Indian Affairs. This Preliminary Environmental Assessment examines the potential environmental effects of acquiring and managing property for wildlife and wildlife habitat within a large project area. The Propose action is intended to meet the need for mitigation of wildlife and wild life habitat that was adversely affected by the construction of Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph Dams and their reservoirs.

  6. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    PubMed Central

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  7. RISK AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN WATER-BASED RECREATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The great number of individuals using recreational water resources presents a challenge with regard to protecting the health of these recreationists. Risk assessment provides a framework for characterizing the risk associated with exposure to microbial hazards and for managing r...

  8. Assessing research risks systematically: the net risks test.

    PubMed

    Wendler, D; Miller, F G

    2007-08-01

    Dual-track assessment directs research ethics committees (RECs) to assess the risks of research interventions based on the unclear distinction between therapeutic and non-therapeutic interventions. The net risks test, in contrast, relies on the clinically familiar method of assessing the risks and benefits of interventions in comparison to the available alternatives and also focuses attention of the RECs on the central challenge of protecting research participants. PMID:17664310

  9. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  10. Meteoroid Risk Assessment of Lunar Habitat Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Evans, Steven W.; Stallworth, Roderick; Robinson, Jennifer; Stellingwerf, Robert; Engler, Erich

    2006-01-01

    Preliminary analyses have been performed of meteoroid impacts on lunar surface structures built with elements made from in situ materials. The SPHC hydrodynamic code was used to simulate impacts, and was validated against hypervelocity impact test results. Impact risk will affect necessary wall thicknesses, depth of burial, and placement of lunar base structures.

  11. Assessing risks to ecosystem quality

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1995-12-31

    Ecosystems are not organisms. Because ecosystems do not reproduce, grow old or sick, and die, the term ecosystem health is somewhat misleading and perhaps should not be used. A more useful concept is ``ecosystem quality,`` which denotes a set of desirable ecosystem characteristics defined in terms of species composition, productivity, size/condition of specific populations, or other measurable properties. The desired quality of an ecosystem may be pristine, as in a nature preserve, or highly altered by man, as in a managed forest or navigational waterway. ``Sustainable development`` implies that human activities that influence ecosystem quality should be managed so that high-quality ecosystems are maintained for future generations. In sustainability-based environmental management, the focus is on maintaining or improving ecosystem quality, not on restricting discharges or requiring particular waste treatment technologies. This approach requires management of chemical impacts to be integrated with management of other sources of stress such as erosion, eutrophication, and direct human exploitation. Environmental scientists must (1) work with decision makers and the public to define ecosystem quality goals, (2) develop corresponding measures of ecosystem quality, (3) diagnose causes for departures from desired states, and (4) recommend appropriate restoration actions, if necessary. Environmental toxicology and chemical risk assessment are necessary for implementing the above framework, but they are clearly not sufficient. This paper reviews the state-of-the science relevant to sustaining the quality of aquatic ecosystems. Using the specific example of a reservoir in eastern Tennessee, the paper attempts to define roles for ecotoxicology and risk assessment in each step of the management process.

  12. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  13. Environmental risk assessment of paroxetine.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Virginia L; Constable, David J C; Hannah, Robert E

    2004-06-15

    watershed-based environmental risk assessment model, PhATE, to predict environmental concentrations (PECs). Comparison of the calculated PECs with the PNEC allows an assessment of potential environmental risk. Within the 1-99% of stream segments in the PhATE model, PEC values ranged from 0.003 to 100 ng/L. The risk assessment PEC/PNEC ratios ranged from approximately 3 x 10(-8) to approximately 3 x 10(-3), indicating a wide margin of safety, since a PEC/PNEC ratio <1 is generally considered to represent a low risk to the environment. In addition, Microtox studies carried out on PM biodegradation byproducts indicated no detectable residual toxicity. Any compounds in the environment as a result of the biodegradation of PM should be innocuous polar byproducts that should not exert any toxic effects. PMID:15260335

  14. Risk modelling for vaccination: a risk assessment perspective.

    PubMed

    Wooldridge, M

    2007-01-01

    Any risk assessment involves a number of steps. First, the risk manager, in close liaison with the risk assessor, should identify the question of interest. Then, the hazards associated with each risk question should be identified. Only then can the risks themselves be assessed. Several questions may reasonably be asked about the risk associated with avian influenza vaccines and their use. Some apply to any vaccine, while others are specific to avian influenza. Risks may occur during manufacture and during use. Some concern the vaccines themselves, while others address the effect of failure on disease control. The hazards associated with each risk question are then identified. These may be technical errors in design, development or production, such as contamination or failure to inactivate appropriately. They may relate to the biological properties of the pathogens themselves displayed during manufacture or use, for example, reversion to virulence, shedding or not being the right strain for the subsequent challenge. Following a consideration of risks and hazards, the information needed and an outline of the steps necessary to assess the risk is summarized, for an illustrative risk question using, as an example, the risks associated with the use of vaccines in the field. A brief consideration of the differences between qualitative and quantitative risk assessments is also included, and the potential effects of uncertainty and variability on the results are discussed.

  15. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  16. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    PubMed

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  17. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Cancer.gov

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  18. A Quantitative Software Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Alice

    2002-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews a risk assessment model as applied to software development. the presentation uses graphs to demonstrate basic concepts of software reliability. It also discusses the application to the risk model to the software development life cycle.

  19. Photogrammetry in Experiments for Hydrogeological Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barazzetti, L.; Scaioni, M.; Feng, T.; Qiao, G.; Lu, P.; Tong, X.; Li, R.

    2013-01-01

    The construction of scaled-down simulation platforms is largely used to support investigations for the assessment of hydrological risk. Achieved outcomes can be integrated and assimilated to numerical analyses for the study of unstable slope collapse, debris transport, and hydrological modeling in general. During design of such simulation platforms, a relevant role has to be given to the spatial sensor network (SSN) to deploy, which is in charge of collecting geo-referenced, quantitative information during experiments. Photogrammetry (including 3D imaging sensors) can play an important role in SSN owing to its capability of collecting 2D images and 3D point clouds data covering wide surfaces without any contact. Different kinds of metric measurements can be then extracted from datasets. The aim of this paper is to give an overview and some examples on the potential of photogrammetry in hydrogeological experiments. After a general introduction on a few preliminary issues (sensors, calibration, ground reference, usage of imaging or ranging sensors), potential applications are classified into 2D and 3D categories. Examples are focused on a scaled-down landslide simulation platform developed at Tongji University (Shanghai, P. R. China).

  20. [Forest health ecological risk assessment in China].

    PubMed

    Xiao, Fengjin; Ouyang, Hua; Cheng, Shulan; Zhang, Qiang

    2004-02-01

    Forest health ecological risk assessment is an important factor in forest resources management. In this paper, we selected forest fire, forest disease-pest disasters and acid rain as main risk sources, described the risk resources by probability, intensity and distributing, and mapped each risk source. The endpoints were the damages that the risk acceptor might and these damages might cause ecosystems' organization and function changing under the uncertainty risk sources. Endpoints of forest might compose of productivity descent, reducing biodiversity, forest degrading, forest ecological function declining, furthermore, forest disappearing. We described exposure in terms of intensity, space, and time. In the exposure and hazard analysis, we used fragile index to show frangibility or resistibility (resistibility is reverse to frangibility), and analyzed the damages by different risk sources. Risk assessment and management was the integrated phase of the research. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of risk sources, all risk index were overlaid in the China map by GIS, which divided the region into 30 ecological risk sub-zones (provinces), according to risk index of each risk sub-zone, and the forest in China was divided into six levels of risk zones. In every level of risk zones, we also put forward the countermeasures for forest health ecological risk management. The result of assessment could provide scientific basis for forest management.

  1. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  2. Preliminary assessment of fleets covered by the Energy Policy Act

    SciTech Connect

    Hu, P.S.; Davis, S.C.; Wang, M.Q.

    1994-12-31

    To facilitate the goal of decreasing oil imports by 10 percent by the year 2000 and 30 percent by 2010, two sections of the Energy Policy Act encourage and mandate alternative fuel vehicles in the acquisition of fleet vehicles. The first step in estimating the contribution of these mandates toward meeting the aforementioned goal entails identifying affected fleets. This paper presents a preliminary assessment of potential vehicle fleet coverage. Only a limited number of companies in the methanol, ethanol, and hydrogen industries are likely to quality for this mandate. Whereas, many of the oil producers, petroleum refiners, and electricity companies are likely to be regulated.

  3. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rahm-Crites, L.

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  4. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  5. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  6. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  7. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  8. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  9. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  10. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  11. Ecological risk assessment framework -- the NAS perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1993-06-01

    A Workshop on Ecological Risk Assessment was held on February 26--March 1, 1991, at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia. In addition to presentation and discussion of the case study papers, the workshop included breakout sessions to discuss conceptual and technical aspects of ecological risk assessment. A general consensus emerged that an ecological version of the 1983 framework is desirable and feasible. The committee concluded that the 1983 human health framework could be expanded to accomodate both human health and ecological risk assessment. For general applicability to ecological assessments, the 1983 scheme requires augmentation to address some of the interfaces between science and management, primarily because of the need to focus on appropriate questions relevant to applicable environmental law and policy under different circumstances. Specifically, the scheme needs modification to address (1) the influence of legal and regulatory considerations on the initial stages of ecological risk assessment and (2) the importance of characterizing ecological risks in terms that are intelligible to risk managers. The committee`s opinion is that these augmentations are as important for human health risk assessment as they are for ecological risk assessment. This paper briefly describes the framework recommended by the Committee and compares it to EPA`s recently-published Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment.

  12. Biologically based, quantitative risk assessment of neurotoxicants.

    PubMed

    Slikker, W; Crump, K S; Andersen, M E; Bellinger, D

    1996-01-01

    The need for biologically based, quantitative risk assessment procedures for noncancer endpoints such as neurotoxicity has been discussed in reports by the United States Congress (Office of Technology Assessment, OTA), National Research Council (NRC), and a federal coordinating council. According to OTA, current attention and resources allocated to health risk assessment research are inadequate and not commensurate with its impact on public health and the economy. Methods to include continuous rather than dichotomous data for neurotoxicity endpoints, biomarkers of exposure and effects, and pharmacokinetic and mechanistic data have been proposed for neurotoxicity risk assessment but require further review and validation before acceptance. The purpose of this symposium was to examine procedures to enhance the risk assessment process for neurotoxicants and to discuss techniques to make the process more quantitative. Accordingly, a review of the currently used safety factor risk assessment approach for neurotoxicants is provided along with specific examples of how this process may be enhanced with the use of the benchmark dose approach. The importance of including physiologically based pharmacokinetic data in the risk assessment process and specific examples of this approach is presented for neurotoxicants. The role of biomarkers of exposure and effect and mechanistic information in the risk assessment process are also addressed. Finally, quantitative approaches with the use of continuous neurotoxicity data are demonstrated and the outcomes compared to those generated by currently used risk assessment procedures. PMID:8838636

  13. Risk Assessment: An Examination of Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince-Embury, Sandra

    A meta-analysis of theoretical debates concerned with the assessment of risk associated with the use of nuclear power as an energy source is presented in this paper. Based on a central premise that risk assessment has a direct impact on national policy decisions and is associated with different perspectives reflective of different social sectors,…

  14. LINES OF EVIDENCE IN WILDLIFE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological risk assessment has evolved rapidly from a qualitative set of observations to a quantitative science during the past decade. Methods for assessing risk to wildlife, however, remain largely theoretical as the empirical data required for accurate estimates of exposure o...

  15. Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  16. Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

    EPA Science Inventory

    Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

  17. Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on compl...

  18. Risk Assess: What's Safe? What's Not? Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffy, Roslyn

    2010-01-01

    "Risk assess!" The words sound like a verbal stop sign. "Stop! Think! Consider!" In this article, the author presents an example of risk assessing that came from a nature education conference in Crieff, Scotland, that she attended as part of an international group of educators seeking ways to increase children's experiences with nature. The…

  19. Fuzzy sets applications for cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Molchanov, P A; Dudatiev, A V; Podobna, Y Y; Molchanova, O P

    2002-09-01

    The method of cancer risk assessment on the basis of the Fuzzy Set Theory is presented. The method is based on a multifactor risk assessment of cancer diseases. The individual risk of cancer disease is evaluated as the probability of disease multiplied by the value of an individual dose. An acupuncture method of cancer risk assessments was developed. The method is based on the analysis of changes of an electromagnetic field (biofield) of a person. The method allows to determine both cancer probability and probable location of the process.

  20. Russian risk assessment methods and approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Dvorack, M.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Smith, R.E.

    1996-07-01

    One of the benefits resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union is the increased dialogue currently taking place between American and Russian nuclear weapons scientists in various technical arenas. One of these arenas currently being investigated involves collaborative studies which illustrate how risk assessment is perceived and utilized in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The collaborative studies indicate that, while similarities exist with respect to some methodologies, the assumptions and approaches in performing risk assessments were, and still are, somewhat different in the FSU as opposed to that in the US. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the present knowledge of risk assessment methodologies and philosophies within the two largest nuclear weapons laboratories of the Former Soviet Union, Arzamas-16 and Chelyabinsk-70. Furthermore, This paper will address the relative progress of new risk assessment methodologies, such as Fuzzy Logic, within the framework of current risk assessment methods at these two institutes.

  1. Environmental radiation: risk benchmarks or benchmarking risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Bates, Matthew E; Valverde, L James; Vogel, John T; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    In the wake of the compound March 2011 nuclear disaster at the Fukushima I nuclear power plant in Japan, international public dialogue has repeatedly turned to questions of the accuracy of current risk assessment processes to assess nuclear risks and the adequacy of existing regulatory risk thresholds to protect us from nuclear harm. We confront these issues with an emphasis on learning from the incident in Japan for future US policy discussions. Without delving into a broader philosophical discussion of the general social acceptance of the risk, the relative adequacy of existing US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) risk thresholds is assessed in comparison with the risk thresholds of federal agencies not currently under heightened public scrutiny. Existing NRC thresholds are found to be among the most conservative in the comparison, suggesting that the agency's current regulatory framework is consistent with larger societal ideals. In turning to risk assessment methodologies, the disaster in Japan does indicate room for growth. Emerging lessons seem to indicate an opportunity to enhance resilience through systemic levels of risk aggregation. Specifically, we believe bringing systemic reasoning to the risk management process requires a framework that (i) is able to represent risk-based knowledge and information about a panoply of threats; (ii) provides a systemic understanding (and representation) of the natural and built environments of interest and their dependencies; and (iii) allows for the rational and coherent valuation of a range of outcome variables of interest, both tangible and intangible. Rather than revisiting the thresholds themselves, we see the goal of future nuclear risk management in adopting and implementing risk assessment techniques that systemically evaluate large-scale socio-technical systems with a view toward enhancing resilience and minimizing the potential for surprise. PMID:21608107

  2. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  3. Adapted Assessment of Phonological Sensitivity Skills: A Preliminary Investigation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pufpaff, Lisa A.

    2011-01-01

    Children with little or no functional speech are at risk for literacy acquisition. Assessment of early literacy skills is particularly challenging among this population due to the need for children to provide a spoken response to tasks. This study explored the effects of adapted response modes on measures of phonological sensitivity. Assessment…

  4. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  5. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments - A Review.

    PubMed

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-03-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models.

  6. Reward learning in pediatric depression and anxiety: Preliminary findings in a high-risk sample

    PubMed Central

    Morris, Bethany H.; Bylsma, Lauren M.; Yaroslavsky, Ilya; Kovacs, Maria; Rottenberg, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    Background Reward learning has been postulated as a critical component of hedonic functioning that predicts depression risk. Reward learning deficits have been established in adults with current depressive disorders, but no prior studies have examined the relationship of reward learning and depression in children. The present study investigated reward learning as a function of familial depression risk and current diagnostic status in a pediatric sample. Method The sample included 204 children of parents with a history of depression (n=86 high-risk offspring) or parents with no history of major mental disorder (n=118 low-risk offspring). Semi-structured clinical interviews were used to establish current mental diagnoses in the children. A modified signal detection task was used to assess reward learning. We tested whether reward learning was impaired in high-risk offspring relative to low-risk offspring. We also tested whether reward learning was impaired in children with current disorders known to blunt hedonic function (depression, social phobia, PTSD, GAD, n=13) compared to children with no disorders and to a psychiatric comparison group with ADHD. Results High- and low-risk youth did not differ in reward learning. However, youth with current anhedonic disorders (depression, social phobia, PTSD, GAD) exhibited blunted reward learning relative to nondisordered youth and those with ADHD. Conclusions Our results are a first demonstration that reward learning deficits are present among youth with disorders known to blunt anhedonic function and that these deficits have some degree of diagnostic specificity. We advocate for future studies to replicate and extend these preliminary findings. PMID:25826304

  7. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  8. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    SciTech Connect

    Barlow, Susan

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  9. Risk Assessment for Tooth Wear.

    PubMed

    Kontaxopoulou, Isavella; Alam, Sonia

    2015-08-01

    Tooth wear has an increasing prevalence in the UK population. The aetiology is commonly multifactorial, and the aetiopathology is through a combination of erosion, attrition, abrasion and abfraction. Erosion is associated with intrinsic or extrinsic acids, and therefore subjects with reflux disease and eating disorders are at increased risk. Fruit juice, fruits and carbonated drink consumption, frequency of consumption and specific habits are also risk factors. Attrition is more prevalent in bruxists. Other habits need to be considered when defining the risk of tooth wear. Abrasion is usually associated with toothbrushing and toothpastes, especially in an already acidic environment. Patients with extensive lesions that affect dentin may be at higher risk, as well as those presenting with unstained lesions. Monitoring of the progress of tooth wear is recommended to identify those with active tooth wear. Indices for tooth wear are a helpful aid. PMID:26556515

  10. Risk Assessment for Tooth Wear.

    PubMed

    Kontaxopoulou, Isavella; Alam, Sonia

    2015-08-01

    Tooth wear has an increasing prevalence in the UK population. The aetiology is commonly multifactorial, and the aetiopathology is through a combination of erosion, attrition, abrasion and abfraction. Erosion is associated with intrinsic or extrinsic acids, and therefore subjects with reflux disease and eating disorders are at increased risk. Fruit juice, fruits and carbonated drink consumption, frequency of consumption and specific habits are also risk factors. Attrition is more prevalent in bruxists. Other habits need to be considered when defining the risk of tooth wear. Abrasion is usually associated with toothbrushing and toothpastes, especially in an already acidic environment. Patients with extensive lesions that affect dentin may be at higher risk, as well as those presenting with unstained lesions. Monitoring of the progress of tooth wear is recommended to identify those with active tooth wear. Indices for tooth wear are a helpful aid.

  11. Preliminary Ecotoxicity and Biodegradability Assessment of Metalworking Fluids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerulová, Kristína; Amcha, Peter; Filická, Slávka

    2010-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to evaluate the potential of activated sludge from sewage treatment plant to degrade selected MWFs (ecotoxicity to bacterial consortium) and to evaluate the ecotoxicity by Lemna minor-higher plant. After evaluating the ecotoxicity, biodegradations rate with activated sludge was assessed on the basis of COD measurement. Preliminary study of measuring the ecotoxicity according to OECD 221 by Lemna minor shows effective concentration of Emulzin H at the rate of 81.6 mg l-1, for Ecocool 82.9 mg l-1, for BC 25 about 99.3 mg l-1, and for Dasnobor about 97.3 mg l-1. Preliminary study of measuring the ecotoxicity by bacterial consortium according to OECD 209 (STN EN ISO 8192) shows effective concentration of Blasocut BC 25 at the rate 227.4 mg l-1. According to OECD 302B, the biodegradations level of Emulzin H, Ecocool and BC 25 achieved 80% in 10 days. It can be stated that these MWFs have potential to ultimate degradation, but the statement has to be confirmed by a biodegradability test with other parameters than COD, which exhibits some disadvantages in testing O/W emulsions.

  12. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  13. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  14. Enhancing the Ecological Risk Assessment Process

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, Virginia H

    2008-01-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest (1) thorough peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and (2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it

  15. Preliminary associations between childhood neglect, MIF, and cortisol: potential pathways to long-term disease risk.

    PubMed

    Bick, Johanna; Nguyen, Victoria; Leng, Lin; Piecychna, Marta; Crowley, Michael J; Bucala, Richard; Mayes, Linda C; Grigorenko, Elena L

    2015-01-01

    The study examined Hypothalamus-Pituitary-Adrenal (HPA) axis and inflammatory signaling in 206 youth with histories of prenatal drug exposure and self-reported histories of maltreatment. Youth with histories of severe neglect showed elevated levels of cortisol, the end product of the HPA axis, in comparison to youth with lower or minimal levels of neglect. Histories of severe neglect also were associated with increased levels of Macrophage Migration Inhibitory Factor (MIF), a cytokine known to be intricately involved in HPA axis regulation. Salivary MIF levels also were positively associated with youth age and prenatal drug exposure. These MIF and cortisol alterations may signal pathophysiological disruptions in the neuro-endocrine and immune systems, which may lead to trajectories of increased disease risk among vulnerable youth. Our findings also provide preliminary support for the validity and reliability of a noninvasive salivary assessment of MIF.

  16. Preliminary Associations Between Childhood Neglect, MIF, and Cortisol: Potential Pathways to Long-Term Disease Risk

    PubMed Central

    Bick, Johanna; Nguyen, Victoria; Leng, Lin; Piecychna, Marta; Crowley, Michael J.; Bucala, Richard; Mayes, Linda C.; Grigorenko, Elena L.

    2015-01-01

    The study examined Hypothalamus Pituitary Adrenal (HPA) axis and inflammatory signaling in 206 youth with histories of prenatal drug exposure and self reported histories of maltreatment. Youth with histories of severe neglect showed elevated levels of cortisol, the end product of the HPA axis, in comparison to youth with lower or minimal levels of neglect. Histories of severe neglect also were associated with increased levels of Macrophage Migration Inhibitory Factor (MIF), a cytokine known to be intricately involved in HPA axis regulation. Salivary MIF levels also were positively associated with youth age and prenatal drug exposure. These MIF and cortisol alterations may signal pathophysiological disruptions in the neuro endocrine and immune systems, which may lead to trajectories of increased disease risk among vulnerable youth. Our findings also provide preliminary support for the validity and reliability of a noninvasive salivary assessment of MIF. PMID:25380347

  17. Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Graber, Robert R.

    2010-01-01

    A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

  18. RESRAD-ECORISK: A computer code for ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Cheng, J.J.

    1995-12-01

    RESRAD-ECORISK is a PC-based computer code developed by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) to estimate risks from exposure of ecological receptors at sites contaminated with potentially hazardous chemicals. The code is based on and is consistent with the methodologies of RESRAD-CHEM, an ANL-developed computer code for assessments of human health risk. RESRAD-ECORISK uses environmental fate and transport models to estimate contaminant concentrations in environmental media from an initial contaminated soil source and food-web uptake models to estimate contaminant doses to ecological receptors. The dose estimates are then used to estimate a risk for the ecological receptor and to calculate preliminary soil guidelines for reducing risks to acceptable levels. Specifically, RESRAD-ECORISK calculates (1) a species-specific applied daily dose for each contaminant (using species-specific life history information and site-specific environmental media concentrations), (2) an ecological hazard quotient (EHQ) for each contaminant and species, and (3) preliminary soil cleanup criteria for each contaminant and receptor. RESRAD-ECORISK incorporates a user-friendly menu-driven interface, databases and default values for a variety of ecological and chemical parameters, and on-line help for easy operation. The code is sufficiently flexible to simulate different contaminated sites and incorporate site-specific ecological data.

  19. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Wendland, W.G. )

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance.

  20. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    PubMed

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

  1. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

  2. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  3. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  4. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  5. Risk Assessment and Alternatives Assessment: Comparing Two Methodologies

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The selection and use of chemicals and materials with less hazardous profiles reflects a paradigm shift from reliance on risk minimization through exposure controls to hazard avoidance. This article introduces risk assessment and alternatives assessment frameworks in order to clarify a misconception that alternatives assessment is a less effective tool to guide decision making, discusses factors promoting the use of each framework, and also identifies how and when application of each framework is most effective. As part of an assessor's decision process to select one framework over the other, it is critical to recognize that each framework is intended to perform different functions. Although the two frameworks share a number of similarities (such as identifying hazards and assessing exposure), an alternatives assessment provides a more realistic framework with which to select environmentally preferable chemicals because of its primary reliance on assessing hazards and secondary reliance on exposure assessment. Relevant to other life cycle impacts, the hazard of a chemical is inherent, and although it may be possible to minimize exposure (and subsequently reduce risk), it is challenging to assess such exposures through a chemical's life cycle. Through increased use of alternatives assessments at the initial stage of material or product design, there will be less reliance on post facto risk‐based assessment techniques because the potential for harm is significantly reduced, if not avoided, negating the need for assessing risk in the first place. PMID:26694655

  6. Perioperative risk assessment. Common misconceptions.

    PubMed

    Mishriki, Y Y

    1989-04-01

    Proper assessment of the preoperative patient is a blend of the art and science of medicine. The body of literature dealing with the various facets of this assessment has grown in the past few years. Unfortunately, this core of knowledge is neither well taught to residents-in-training nor well appreciated by many practicing physicians. Thus, evaluation of the surgical patient is often guided by personal anecdotes and unjustified assumptions. Seven common misconceptions are addressed in this article. PMID:2648378

  7. Framework for metals risk assessment [ Journal Article

    EPA Science Inventory

    This is a science-based document that describes basic principles that address the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  8. Assessing risk: Putting toxicity in perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, C.

    1993-08-01

    Opinions on risk assessment vary from believing the process to be a purely pursuit at one extreme to professing that it is merely a {open_quotes}plug and chug{close_quotes} or {open_quotes}turn the crank{close_quotes} exercise at the other. Those familiar with the field recognize, however, that risk assessment is basically a process of exercising good scientific analysis and judgement. More specifically, risk assessment is the devise by which one arrives at decisions concerning accidental chemical exposures, chemical tolerances in food, allowable workplace chemical exposures and chemicals in the environment from uncontrolled industrial and waste sites. This paper discussess risk assessment and relations to the Superfund.

  9. Uncertainty in Mixtures and Cumulative Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Humans and environmental species are rarely exposed to single chemicals. These chemicals typically affect multiple tissues through multiple modes of action, which may depend on the dose. Mixtures risk assessment may employ dose response information from the mixture of interest,...

  10. Salivary Biomarkers for Caries Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Lihong; Shi, Wenyuan

    2013-01-01

    Saliva contains various microbes and host biological components that could be used for caries risk assessment. This review focuses on the research topics that connect dental caries with saliva, including both the microbial and host components within saliva. PMID:23505756

  11. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  12. USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
    John C. Rockett
    Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

  13. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    PubMed Central

    Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-01-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  14. Risk Assessment in Child Sexual Abuse Cases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levenson, Jill S.; Morin, John W.

    2006-01-01

    Despite continuing improvements in risk assessment for child protective services (CPS) and movement toward actuarial prediction of child maltreatment, current models have not adequately addressed child sexual abuse. Sexual abuse cases present unique and ambiguous indicators to the investigating professional, and risk factors differ from those…

  15. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  16. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  17. APPLICATION OF FETAX IN ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS: A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A workshop sponsored by NIEHS in 2000 evaluated the use of FETAX as a screening method for identifying the developmental toxicity potenial of chemical and environmental samples. Workshop recommendations pertinent to environmental risk assessment suggested that additional comparat...

  18. Preliminary assessment of radon potential of the Pacific coast states

    SciTech Connect

    Otton, J.K. )

    1993-04-01

    The US Geological Survey has recently released preliminary assessments of the radon potential in Washington, Oregon, and California. These assessments, funded by the Environmental Protection Agency, are based on geology, soils, aeroradiometric data, indoor radon data, and housing characteristics. Coastal mountain areas with low-uranium basaltic rocks and high soil moisture, and drier inland areas of low-uranium basaltic rocks in the northern part of the three-stage area have low round potential (<10 percent of homes with >4 pCi/L). Areas with highly permeable, uraniferous glacial outwash deposits in central and northeastern Washington; local areas with uraniferous marine shales in southern and south-central California; areas of granites, acidic volcanic rocks and alluvium derived from then in southeastern Oregon and central California; and steep soils developed on volcanic rocks in the Columbia River Gorge all have moderate (10-25 percent of homes with >4 pCi/L) radon potential. Extreme levels of indoor radon are possible in the northern Spokane, Wash. suburbs where homes may be sited on uranium occurrences. the radon potential of Mojave-Desert areas with high-uranium soils and rocks seems to be lowered by low radon entry rates, probably caused by slab-on-grade construction, use of evaporative coolers, and lifestyle factors. With the uranium-rich soils and rocks present, however, high indoor radon levels are possible where unusual housing conditions are present.

  19. Risk assessment Barter Island radar installation, Alaska

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-05

    This document contains the baseline human health risk assessment and the ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the Barter Island Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line radar installation. Fourteen sites at the Barter Island radar installation underwent remedial investigations (RIS) during the summer of 1993. The presence of chemical contamination in the soil, sediments, and surface water at the installation was evaluated and reported in the Barter Island Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) United States Air Force 1994a. The analytical data reported in the RI/FS form the basis for the human health and ecological risk assessment. The primary contaminants of concern at the 14 sites are diesel and gasoline from past spills and/or leaks. The general location of the Barter Island radar installation is shown in Figure 1-1. The 14 sites investigated and the types of samples collected at each site are presented in Table 1-1. The purpose of the risk assessment is to evaluate the human and ecological health risks that may be associated with chemicals released to the environment at the 14 sites investigated during the RIs. The risk assessment characterizes the probability that measured concentrations of hazardous chemical substances will cause adverse effects in humans or the environment in the absence of remediation. The risk assessment will be used to determine if remediation (site cleanup) is necessary and also to rank sites for remedial action. Additionally, it will be used as a model for the risk assessment to be performed at the other DEW Line installations (Bullen Point, Oliktok Point, Point Lonely, Barrow Point, Wainwright, and Point Lay) and the Cape Lisburne radar installation. pg18. JMD.

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment of the modular HTGR plant. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Everline, C.J.; Bellis, E.A.; Vasquez, J.

    1986-06-01

    A preliminary probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed for the modular HTGR (MHTGR). This PRA is preliminary in the context that although it updates the PRA issued earlier to include a wider spectrum of events for Licensing Basis Events (LBE) selection, the final version will not be issued until later. The primary function of the assessment was to assure compliance with the NRC interim safety goals imposed by the top-level regulatory criteria, and utility/user requirements regarding public evacuation or sheltering. In addition, the assessment provides a basis for designer feedback regarding reliability allocations and barrier retention requirements as well as providing a basis for the selection of licensing basis events (LBEs) and the safety classification of structures, systems, and components. The assessment demonstrates that both the NRC interim safety goals and utility/user imposed sheltering/evacuation requirements are satisfied. Moreover, it is not anticipated that design changes introduced will jeopardize compliance with the interim safety goals or utility/user requirements. 61 refs., 48 figs., 24 tabs.

  1. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  2. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  3. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  4. Comprehensive methodology for ecological risk assessment of contaminated soils

    SciTech Connect

    Kuperman, R.G.

    1994-12-31

    Development of a comprehensive methodology for ecological risk assessment and monitoring of contaminated soils is essential to assess the impacts of environmental contaminants on soil community and biologically-mediated processes in soil. The proposed four-step plan involves (1) a thorough survey of the soil community to establish biodiversity and a base-line community structure, (2) toxicity trials on indicator species and whole soil invertebrate communities, (3) laboratory and field tests on indicator processes and (4) the use of statistical and simulation models to ascertain changes in the soil ecosystems. This methodology was used in portions of the US Army`s Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland as part of an ecological risk assessment. Previous soil analyses showed extensive surface soil contamination with metals, nitrate and PCBs. Preliminary results from field surveys of soil invertebrate communities showed significant reductions in total abundance of animals, reductions in the abundance of several taxonomic and functional groups of soil invertebrates, and changes in the activity of epigeic arthropods in contaminated areas when compared with the local ``background`` area. Laboratory tests also demonstrated that microbial activity and success of egg hatching of ground beetle Harpalus pensylvanicus were reduced in contaminated soils. These results suggest that impacts to soil ecosystems should be explicitly considered in ecological risk assessment. The proposed comprehensive methodology appears to offer an efficient and potentially cost saving tool for remedial investigations of contaminated sites.

  5. NATIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TOXICS RISKS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

  6. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  7. Risk Assessment in the 21st Century

    EPA Science Inventory

    For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional app...

  8. Validating a multifactorial falls risk assessment.

    PubMed

    James, Michele B; Kimmons, Nancy J; Schasberger, Britta; Lefkowitz, Abigail

    2014-01-01

    Reducing risk of falls has been identified as a national safety goal by The Joint Commission (TJC). The purpose was to determine if the total score on the multifactorial Falls Risk Assessment accurately identifies the risk of falls in a homebound client. In addition, the study examined if any individual item had a higher predictive power with the incidence of falls. One hundred clients (> 65 years old) who sustained an avoidable fall during a home care episode of care, plus 25 home care clients in the same age range and time period, who did not fall. A retrospective chart review, including Falls Risk Assessment (FRA) performed at start of care, demographic information, specific physical therapy (PT) evaluation, and visit notes if necessary to determine if the fall met the inclusion criteria. Scores for each individual area of the assessment were collected for statistical analysis. Data were analyzed by a biostatistician using simple linear regression, t-tests, and regression of variable combinations. The total score on the multifactorial risk assessment tool was shown to have a strong relationship with incidence of falls. The average scores of individuals who fell after assessment were significantly higher than those of individuals who did not fall. No single factors were found to be highly predictive. A single approach to decreasing falls is likely to be less effective than a multipronged approach. Caregivers and providers are advised to consider the entirety of the falls risk and direct comprehensive interventions to address the multiple factors that lead to falls.

  9. Blue print for building a risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Otsuki, H.K.; Eagan-McNeill, E.

    1997-05-01

    Federal and stet regulations require the operator of a miscellaneous waste treatment unit to demonstrate compliance with environmental performance standard. A sample risk assessment is demonstrated as a means of showing compliance for such a treatment unit. A new Open Burning and Open Detonation (OB/OD) facility for explosive wastes at LLNL experimental site is used. Simplified, the process of performing a risk assessment consists of characterization of the treatment operation and estimation of emission rates; evaluation of the emission dispersion to estimate acute exposure; and evaluation of human and environmental risks. Each step may require the environmental analysts to perform detained date gathering, modeling and calculations, and to negotiate with facility operations personnel and regulatory representatives. The Risk Assessment Protocol, which explains the assumptions, model selection and inputs, and data selection, must ultimately withstand the rigors of regulatory review and public scrutiny.s

  10. Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors Into Cumulative Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Rider, Cynthia V.; Dourson, Michael L.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Mumtaz, Moiz M.; Price, Paul S.; Simmons, Jane Ellen

    2012-01-01

    The role of nonchemical stressors in modulating the human health risk associated with chemical exposures is an area of increasing attention. On 9 March 2011, a workshop titled “Approaches for Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment” took place during the 50th Anniversary Annual Society of Toxicology Meeting in Washington D.C. Objectives of the workshop included describing the current state of the science from various perspectives (i.e., regulatory, exposure, modeling, and risk assessment) and presenting expert opinions on currently available methods for incorporating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments. Herein, distinct frameworks for characterizing exposure to, joint effects of, and risk associated with chemical and nonchemical stressors are discussed. PMID:22345310

  11. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs.

  12. Ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors.

    PubMed Central

    Hutchinson, T H; Brown, R; Brugger, K E; Campbell, P M; Holt, M; Länge, R; McCahon, P; Tattersfield, L J; van Egmond, R

    2000-01-01

    The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals proposes a tiered approach for the ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors, integrating exposure and hazard (effects) characterization. Exposure assessment for endocrine disruptors should direct specific tests for wildlife species, placing hazard data into a risk assessment context. Supplementing the suite of mammalian screens now under Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) validation, high priority should be given to developing a fish screening assay for detecting endocrine activity in oviparous species. Taking into account both exposure characterization and alerts from endocrine screening, higher tier tests are also a priority for defining adverse effects. We propose that in vivo mammalian and fish assays provide a comprehensive screening battery for diverse hormonal functions (including androgen, estrogen, and thyroid hormone), whereas Amphibia should be considered at higher tiers if there are exposure concerns. Higher tier endocrine-disruptor testing should include fish development and fish reproduction tests, whereas a full life-cycle test could be subsequently used to refine aquatic risk assessments when necessary. For avian risk assessment, the new OECD Japanese quail reproduction test guideline provides a valuable basis for developing a test to detecting endocrine-mediated reproductive effects; this species could be used, where necessary, for an avian life-cycle test. For aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, data from existing developmental and reproductive tests remain of high value for ecological risk assessment. High priority should be given to research into comparative endocrine physiology of invertebrates to support data extrapolation to this diverse fauna. PMID:11102288

  13. Modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Koutsoumanis, Konstantinos

    2009-02-01

    In this study, I describe a systematic approach for modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment that is based on the incorporation of kinetic spoilage modeling in exposure assessment by combining data and models for the specific spoilage organisms (SSO: fraction of the total microflora responsible for spoilage) with those for pathogens. The structure of the approach is presented through an exposure assessment application for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef. The proposed approach allows for identifying spoiled products at the time of consumption by comparing the estimated level of SSO (pseudomonads) with the spoilage level (level of SSO at which spoilage is observed). The results of the application indicate that ignoring spoilage in risk assessment could lead to significant overestimations of risk.

  14. Methodology and a preliminary data base for examining the health risks of electricity generation from uranium and coal fuels

    SciTech Connect

    El-Bassioni, A.A.

    1980-08-01

    An analytical model was developed to assess and examine the health effects associated with the production of electricity from uranium and coal fuels. The model is based on a systematic methodology that is both simple and easy to check, and provides details about the various components of health risk. A preliminary set of data that is needed to calculate the health risks was gathered, normalized to the model facilities, and presented in a concise manner. Additional data will become available as a result of other evaluations of both fuel cycles, and they should be included in the data base. An iterative approach involving only a few steps is recommended for validating the model. After each validation step, the model is improved in the areas where new information or increased interest justifies such upgrading. Sensitivity analysis is proposed as the best method of using the model to its full potential. Detailed quantification of the risks associated with the two fuel cycles is not presented in this report. The evaluation of risks from producing electricity by these two methods can be completed only after several steps that address difficult social and technical questions. Preliminary quantitative assessment showed that several factors not considered in detail in previous studies are potentially important. 255 refs., 21 figs., 179 tabs.

  15. Assessment of wind turbine seismic risk : existing literature and simple study of tower moment demand.

    SciTech Connect

    Prowell, Ian; Veers, Paul S.

    2009-03-01

    Various sources of risk exist for all civil structures, one of which is seismic risk. As structures change in scale, the magnitude of seismic risk changes relative to risk from other sources. This paper presents an introduction to seismic hazard as applied to wind turbine structures. The existing design methods and research regarding seismic risk for wind turbines is then summarized. Finally a preliminary assessment is made based on current guidelines to understand how tower moment demand scales as rated power increases. Potential areas of uncertainty in the application of the current guidelines are summarized.

  16. Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plattner, Th.; Plapp, T.; Hebel, B.

    2006-06-01

    An urgent need to take perception into account for risk assessment has been pointed out by relevant literature, its impact in terms of risk-related behaviour by individuals is obvious. This study represents an effort to overcome the broadly discussed question of whether risk perception is quantifiable or not by proposing a still simple but applicable methodology. A novel approach is elaborated to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive quantification of risk in comparison to present formal risk evaluation practice. A consideration of relevant factors enables a explicit quantification of individual risk perception and evaluation. The model approach integrates the effective individual risk reff and a weighted mean of relevant perception affecting factors PAF. The relevant PAF cover voluntariness of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk, knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and subjective recurrence frequency perception. The approach assigns an individual weight to each PAF to represent its impact magnitude. The quantification of these weights is target-group-dependent (e.g. experts, laypersons) and may be effected by psychometric methods. The novel approach is subject to a plausibility check using data from an expert-workshop. A first model application is conducted by means of data of an empirical risk perception study in Western Germany to deduce PAF and weight quantification as well as to confirm and evaluate model applicbility and flexibility. Main fields of application will be a quantification of risk perception by individual persons in a formal and technical way e.g. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating differing perspectives of experts and non-experts. For decision making processes this model will have to be applied with caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk acceptance or risk evaluation. The approach may well explain how risk perception differs, but not why it differs. The

  17. Preliminary Assessment of Sponge Biodiversity on Saba Bank, Netherlands Antilles

    PubMed Central

    Thacker, Robert W.; Díaz, M. Cristina; de Voogd, Nicole J.; van Soest, Rob W. M.; Freeman, Christopher J.; Mobley, Andrew S.; LaPietra, Jessica; Cope, Kevin; McKenna, Sheila

    2010-01-01

    Background Saba Bank Atoll, Netherlands Antilles, is one of the three largest atolls on Earth and provides habitat for an extensive coral reef community. To improve our knowledge of this vast marine resource, a survey of biodiversity at Saba Bank included a multi-disciplinary team that sampled fishes, mollusks, crustaceans, macroalgae, and sponges. Methodology/Principal Findings A single member of the dive team conducted surveys of sponge biodiversity during eight dives at six locations, at depths ranging from 15 to 30 m. This preliminary assessment documented the presence of 45 species pooled across multiple locations. Rarefaction analysis estimated that only 48 to 84% of species diversity was sampled by this limited effort, clearly indicating a need for additional surveys. An analysis of historical collections from Saba and Saba Bank revealed an additional 36 species, yielding a total of 81 sponge species recorded from this area. Conclusions/Significance This observed species composition is similar to that found on widespread Caribbean reefs, indicating that the sponge fauna of Saba Bank is broadly representative of the Caribbean as a whole. A robust population of the giant barrel sponge, Xestospongia muta, appeared healthy with none of the signs of disease or bleaching reported from other Caribbean reefs; however, more recent reports of anchor chain damage to these sponges suggests that human activities can have dramatic impacts on these communities. Opportunities to protect this extremely large habitat should be pursued, as Saba Bank may serve as a significant reservoir of sponge species diversity. PMID:20502643

  18. Wind power in Eritrea, Africa: A preliminary resource assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Garbesi, K.; Rosen, K.; Van Buskirk, R.

    1997-12-31

    The authors preliminary assessment of Eritrean wind energy potential identified two promising regions: (1) the southeastern Red Sea coast and (2) the mountain passes that channel winds between the coastal lowlands and the interior highlands. The coastal site, near the port city of Aseb, has an exceptionally good resource, with estimated average annual wind speeds at 10-m height above 9 m/s at the airport and 7 m/s in the port. Furthermore, the southern 200 km of coastline has offshore WS{sub aa} > 6 m/s. This area has strong potential for development, having a local 20 MW grid and unmet demand for the fishing industry and development. Although the highland sites contain only marginal wind resources ({approximately} 5 m/s), they warrant further investigation because of their proximity to the capital city, Asmera, which has the largest unmet demand and a larger power grid (40 MW with an additional 80 MW planned) to absorb an intermittent source without storage.

  19. Preliminary radiometric calibration assessment of ALOS AVNIR-2

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bouvet, M.; Goryl, P.; Chander, G.; Santer, R.; Saunier, S.

    2008-01-01

    This paper summarizes the activities carried out in the frame of the data quality activities of the Advanced Visible and Near Infrared Radiometer type 2 (AVNIR-2) sensor onboard the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS). Assessment of the radiometric calibration of the AVNIR-2 multi-spectral imager is achieved via three intercomparisons to currently flying sensors over the Libyan desert, during the first year of operation. AU three methodologies indicate a slight underestimation of AVNIR-2 in band 1 by 4 to 7% with respect to other sensors radiometric scale. Band 2 does not show any obvious bias. Results for band 3 are affected by saturation due to inappropriate gain setting. Two methodologies indicate no significant bias in band 4. Preliminary results indicate possible degradations of the AVNIR-2 channels, which, when modeled as an exponentially decreasing functions, have time constants of respectively 13.2 %.year-1, 8.8%.year-1 and 0.1%.year-1 in band 1, 2 and 4 (with respect to the radiometric scale of the MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, MERIS). Longer time series of AVNIR-2 data are needed to draw final conclusions. ?? 2007 IEEE.

  20. Phonological assessment and analysis tools for Tagalog: Preliminary development.

    PubMed

    Chen, Rachelle Kay; Bernhardt, B May; Stemberger, Joseph P

    2016-01-01

    Information and assessment tools concerning Tagalog phonological development are minimally available. The current study thus sets out to develop elicitation and analysis tools for Tagalog. A picture elicitation task was designed with a warm-up, screener and two extension lists, one with more complex and one with simpler words. A nonlinear phonological analysis form was adapted from English (Bernhardt & Stemberger, 2000) to capture key characteristics of Tagalog. The tools were piloted on a primarily Tagalog-speaking 4-year-old boy living in a Canadian-English-speaking environment. The data provided initial guidance for revision of the elicitation tool (available at phonodevelopment.sites.olt.ubc.ca). The analysis provides preliminary observations about possible expectations for primarily Tagalog-speaking 4-year-olds in English-speaking environments: Lack of mastery for tap/trill 'r', and minor mismatches for vowels, /l/, /h/ and word stress. Further research is required in order to develop the tool into a norm-referenced instrument for Tagalog in both monolingual and multilingual environments. PMID:27096390

  1. Preliminary Assessment of Thrust Augmentation of NEP Based Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chew, Gilbert; Pelaccio, Dennis G.; Chiroux, Robert; Pervan, Sherry; Rauwolf, Gerald A.; White, Charles

    2005-01-01

    Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), with support from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, has conducted a preliminary study to compare options for augmenting the thrust of a conventional nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) system. These options include a novel nuclear propulsion system concept known as Hybrid Indirect Nuclear Propulsion (HINP) and conventional chemical propulsion. The utility and technical feasibility of the HINP concept are assessed, and features and potential of this new in-space propulsion system concept are identified. As part of the study, SAIC developed top-level design tools to model the size and performance of an HINP system, as well as for several chemical propulsion options, including liquid and gelled propellants. A mission trade study was performed to compare a representative HINP system with chemical propulsion options for thrust augmentation of NEP systems for a mission to Saturn's moon Titan. Details pertaining to the approach, features, initial demonstration results for HINP model development, and the mission trade study are presented. Key technology and design issues associated with the HINP concept and future work recommendations are also identified.

  2. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    PubMed

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  3. Resource handbook on transportation risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, S. Y.; Biwer, B. M.; Monette, F. A.; Environmental Assessment; SNL; BAPL; USOE; Battelle Memorial Inst.

    2003-01-01

    This resource handbook contains useful information to streamline radioactive material transportation risk assessments for National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents prepared for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) programs. Streamlining refers to instituting steps that can increase the efficiency of future assessments, reduce costs, and promote increased quality and consistency across the DOE complex. This handbook takes advantage of the wealth of information developed through decades of DOE's NEPA experience. It contains a review of historical assessments; a description of comprehensive and generally acceptable transportation risk assessment methodology (i.e., models); and a compilation of supporting data, parameters, and generally accepted assumptions. This handbook also includes a discussion paper that addresses cumulative impacts (Appendix A). The discussion paper illustrates the evolving and sometimes unresolved issues encountered in transportation risk assessment. Other topics, such as sabotage, environmental justice, and human factors, may be addressed in the future. This resource document was developed as the first primary reference book providing useful information for conducting transportation risk assessments for radioactive material in the NEPA context.

  4. Risk assessment and risk management of noncriteria pollutants.

    PubMed

    Lee, S D

    1990-10-01

    Noncriteria air pollutants are synonymous with hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), air toxics or toxic air pollutants (TAPs). The term noncriteria pollutants refers to all air pollutants except for the criteria pollutants (SOx, PM, NOx, CO, O3, and Pb). Air toxics are pervasive in our environment worldwide in varying degrees. Uses of these chemicals are varied and numerous; their emissions are ubiquitous, and they include organic compounds such as chlorinated hydrocarbons, dioxins, aldehydes, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, and heavy metals such as chromium, nickel, cadmium, and mercury. There are more than 70,000 chemicals that are in use commercially in the United States, and we know relatively little about their ambient concentrations, persistence, transport and transformation as well as their effects on health and the environment, many of which take decades to emerge. The United States Environmental Protection Agency, under the authority of Section 112 of the Clean Air Act, is mandated to regulate any air pollutant which, in the Administrator's judgment, "causes, or contributes to, air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to result in an increase in serious irreversible or incapacitating reversible illness." For such regulatory decision-making, EPA's Office of Health and Environmental Assessment (OHEA) provides scientific assessment of health effects for potentially hazardous air pollutants. In accordance with risk assessment guidelines developed by OHEA over the years, Health Assessment Documents (HADs) containing risk assessment information were prepared and were subjected to critical review and careful revision to produce Final Draft HADs which serve as scientific databases for regulatory decision-making by the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) in its risk management process. EPA developed databases such as the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) and the National Air Toxics Information Clearinghouse (NATICH) and a technical

  5. Risk factors for and assessment of constipation.

    PubMed

    Chapman, Sherree; Hungerford, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    Constipation commonly occurs in older people, particularly in hospital or residential care settings, and leads to decreased quality of life and increased healthcare costs. Despite its frequency, however, nurses often overlook the condition. One possible reason for this may be the lack of appropriate tools or scales for nurses to assess risk factors for developing constipation. This article identifies, from the academic literature, 14 risk factors for developing constipation in older people. These factors are then considered in light of four common constipation assessment charts. The article concludes by arguing the need for more comprehensive assessment tools to, firstly, identify risk factors; and, secondly, support the implementation of appropriate preventative strategies that will enable better health outcomes for older people.

  6. Method and apparatus for assessing cardiovascular risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Albrecht, Paul (Inventor); Bigger, J. Thomas (Inventor); Cohen, Richard J. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    The method for assessing risk of an adverse clinical event includes detecting a physiologic signal in the subject and determining from the physiologic signal a sequence of intervals corresponding to time intervals between heart beats. The long-time structure of fluctuations in the intervals over a time period of more than fifteen minutes is analyzed to assess risk of an adverse clinical event. In a preferred embodiment, the physiologic signal is an electrocardiogram and the time period is at least fifteen minutes. A preferred method for analyzing the long-time structure variability in the intervals includes computing the power spectrum and fitting the power spectrum to a power law dependence on frequency over a selected frequency range such as 10.sup.-4 to 10.sup.-2 Hz. Characteristics of the long-time structure fluctuations in the intervals is used to assess risk of an adverse clinical event.

  7. Concepts of modern risk assessment and management.

    PubMed

    Corbin, S B

    1994-01-01

    An emerging and increasingly complex array of environmental health concerns face dental practitioners in both the private and public sectors. These concerns are challenging and possibly threatening the traditionally inviolable dentist-patient relationship. Regulatory bodies, health risk experts, attorneys, and enthusiastic media are inserting themselves into the process. Essential assets for "successful" dental practitioners include enhanced expertise in basic science and technology, including the area of risk assessment, and development of broadened perspectives and skills for communicating with patients and the public.

  8. Preliminary biogeochemical assessment of EPICA LGM and Holocene ice samples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulat, S.; Alekhina, I.; Marie, D.; Wagenbach, D.; Raynaud, D.; Petit, J. R.

    2009-04-01

    weak signals were possible to generate which are now under cloning. The signals were hard to reproduce because of rather low volume of samples. More ice volume is needed to get the biosignal stronger and reproducible. Meantime we are adjusting PCR and in addition testing DNA repair-enzyme cocktail in case of DNA damage. As a preliminary conclusion we would like to highlight the following. Both Holocene and LGM ice samples (EDC99 and EDML) are very clean in terms of Ultra low biomass and Ultra low DOC content. The most basal ice of EDC and EDML ice cores could help in assessing microbial biomass and diversity if present under the glacier at the ice-bedrock boundary. * The present-day consortium includes S. Bulat, I. Alekhina, P. Normand, D. Prieur, J-R. Petit and D. Raynaud (France) and E. Willerslev and J.P. Steffensen (Denmark)

  9. A Monte Carlo simulation approach for flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agili, Hachem; Chokmani, Karem; Oubennaceur, Khalid; Poulin, Jimmy; Marceau, Pascal

    2016-04-01

    Floods are the most frequent natural disaster and the most damaging in Canada. The issue of assessing and managing the risk related to this disaster has become increasingly crucial for both local and national authorities. Brigham, a municipality located in southern Quebec Province, is one of the heavily affected regions by this disaster because of frequent overflows of the Yamaska River reaching two to three times per year. Since Irene Hurricane which hit the region in 2011 causing considerable socio-economic damage, the implementation of mitigation measures has become a major priority for this municipality. To do this, a preliminary study to evaluate the risk to which this region is exposed is essential. Conventionally, approaches only based on the characterization of the hazard (e.g. floodplains extensive, flood depth) are generally adopted to study the risk of flooding. In order to improve the knowledge of this risk, a Monte Carlo simulation approach combining information on the hazard with vulnerability-related aspects of buildings has been developed. This approach integrates three main components namely hydrological modeling through flow-probability functions, hydraulic modeling using flow-submersion height functions and the study of buildings damage based on damage functions adapted to the Quebec habitat. The application of this approach allows estimating the annual average cost of damage caused by floods on buildings. The obtained results will be useful for local authorities to support their decisions on risk management and prevention against this disaster.

  10. Recidivism Risk Assessment for Adult Sexual Offenders.

    PubMed

    Holoyda, Brian J; Newman, William J

    2016-02-01

    Sexual offending is a significant public health problem in the USA due to its prevalence and the substantial impact it has on victims, victims' families, and the legal and mental health systems. The assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk is an important aspect of developing effective management strategies for sexual offenders in terms of placement, treatment, and other interventions. Researchers have developed numerous tools to aid in the assessment of sexual violence recidivism risk, including actuarial measures, structured professional judgment methods, and psychophysiologic assessment of sexual interests. The Static-99R and Sexual Violence Risk-20 are two instruments that have received substantial research attention for their ability to accurately compare offenders' risk of recidivism to normative group data. Penile plethysmography and visual reaction time are used to evaluate subjects' responses to sexual stimuli in an effort to characterize offenders' sexual arousal and interest, respectively. Though current research has focused on risk assessment tools' predictive utility, future research will need to examine the impact that actuarial and structured professional judgment tools have on reducing recidivism if they are to have relevance in the management of sexual offenders. PMID:26781555

  11. Assessment of health risks of policies

    SciTech Connect

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana; and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  12. Recording pressure ulcer risk assessment and incidence.

    PubMed

    Plaskitt, Anne; Heywood, Nicola; Arrowsmith, Michaela

    2015-07-15

    This article reports on the introduction of an innovative computer-based system developed to record and report pressure ulcer risk and incidence at an acute NHS trust. The system was introduced to ensure that all patients have an early pressure ulcer risk assessment, which prompts staff to initiate appropriate management if a pressure ulcer is detected, thereby preventing further patient harm. Initial findings suggest that this electronic process has helped to improve the timeliness and accuracy of data on pressure ulcer risk and incidence. In addition, it has resulted in a reduced number of reported hospital-acquired pressure ulcers.

  13. Preliminary Mineral Resource Assessment of Selected Mineral Deposit Types in Afghanistan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ludington, Steve; Orris, Greta J.; Bolm, Karen S.; Peters, Stephen G.; ,

    2007-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Wise decision-making and management of natural resources depend upon credible and reliable scientific information about the occurrence, distribution, quantity and quality of a country's resource base. Economic development decisions by governments require such information to be part of a Mineral Resource Assessment. Such Mineral Assessments are also useful to private citizens and international investors, consultants, and companies prior to entry and investment in a country. Assessments can also be used to help evaluate the economic risks and impact on the natural environment associated with development of resources. In February 2002, at the request of the Department of State and the then U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan (Robert P. Finn), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) prepared a detailed proposal addressing natural resources issues critical to the reconstruction of Afghanistan. The proposal was refined and updated in December 2003 and was presented as a 5-year work plan to USAID-Kabul in February 2004. USAID-Kabul currently funds this plan and this report presents a part of the preliminary results obligated for fiscal year 2006. A final Preliminary Assessment of the Non Fuel Mineral Resource of Afghanistan will be completed and delivered at the end of fiscal year 2007. Afghanistan has abundant metallic and non-metallic resources, but the potential resources have never been systematically assessed using modern methods. Much of the existing mineral information for Afghanistan was gathered during the 1950s and continued in the late 1980s until the departure of the geologic advisors from the Soviet Union. During this period, there were many mineral-related activities centered on systematic geologic mapping of the country, collection of geochemical and rock samples, implementation of airborne geophysical surveys, and exploration focused on the discovery of large mineral deposits. Many reports, maps, charts, and tables were produced at that time. Some of

  14. New method for assessing risks of email

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  15. Supplemental risk-assessment guidance for the Superfund program. Part 1. Guidance for Public-Health Risk Assessments. Part 2. Guidance for ecological Risk Assessments. Draft report (Final)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-06-01

    This guidance manual was developed to address the practical aspects and issues pertaining to the Superfund risk-assessment process for both public health and environment concerns. Part 1, Guidance for Public Health Risk Assessments, supplements the Superfund Public Health Evaluation Manual and Superfund Exposure Assessment Manual and the Endangerment Assessment Handbook. Explicit guidance on technical matters which should be followed in developing public health risk assessments for EPA Region 1. The guidance addresses hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, risk characterization, and uncertainty/limitations. Part 2 of the manual, Guidance for Ecological Risk Assessments, addresses the collection of site-specific data needed to support an ecological risk assessment, describes a framework for conducting the assessments, and provides several specific approaches for assessing risks to systems exposed to chemical contamination in different media.

  16. [Effects of an educational campaign on cardiovascular risk factors in a French town (Epernon, study town). Methods and preliminary results: prevalence and level of risk factors].

    PubMed

    Bruckert, E; Emmerich, J; Thomas, D; Charpak, Y; Bichon, L; Clergeot, A

    1994-01-01

    The authors report the methods and preliminary findings of a study scheduled to last 5 years, which aims to evaluate cardiovascular risk factor changes in response to an education program. The population sample consisted of 961 subjects, from Epernon itself (the study town) and from two control towns. The assessment criteria were reported at the beginning of the study and then again after 2 and 5 years. They consisted of an analysis of medical events and of biomedical and dietary data and a detailed analysis of behavior with regard to health and socio-economic variables. Preliminary data show that the samples were similar in Epernon and the control towns and also comparable to some French epidemiological data. There is a striking difference between the percentage of subjects aware of their blood pressure (65.5%) and blood cholesterol (13.4%) levels.

  17. Environment effects from SRB exhaust effluents: Technique development and preliminary assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldford, A. I.; Adelfang, S. I.; Hickey, J. S.; Smith, S. R.; Welty, R. P.; White, G. L.

    1977-01-01

    Techniques to determine the environmental effects from the space shuttle SRB (Solid Rocket Booster) exhaust effluents are used to perform a preliminary climatological assessment. The exhaust effluent chemistry study was performed and the exhaust effluent species were determined. A reasonable exhaust particle size distribution is constructed for use in nozzle analyses and for the deposition model. The preliminary assessment is used to identify problems that are associated with the full-scale assessment; therefore, these preliminary air quality results are used with caution in drawing conclusion regarding the environmental effects of the space shuttle exhaust effluents.

  18. Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

    SciTech Connect

    Moss, R. H.; Delgado, A.; Malone, E L.

    2015-08-15

    U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before final conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure

  19. Preliminary impact assessment of effusive eruptions at Etna volcano

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cappello, Annalisa; Michaud-Dubuy, Audrey; Branca, Stefano; De Beni, Emanuela; Del Negro, Ciro

    2016-04-01

    Lava flows are a recurring and widespread form of volcanic activity that threaten people and property around the world. The growing demographic congestion around volcanic structures increases the potential risks and costs that lava flows represent, and leads to a pressing need for faster and more accurate assessment of lava flow impact. To fully evaluate potential effects and losses that an effusive eruption may cause to society, property and environment, it is necessary to consider the hazard, the distribution of the exposed elements at stake and the associated vulnerability. Lava flow hazard assessment is at an advanced state, whereas comprehensive vulnerability assessment is lacking. Cataloguing and analyzing volcanic impacts provide insight on likely societal and physical vulnerabilities during future eruptions. Here we quantify the lava flow impact of two past main effusive eruptions of Etna volcano: the 1669, which is the biggest and destructive flank eruption to have occurred on Etna in historical time, and the 1981, lasting only 6 days, but characterized by an intense eruptive dynamics. Different elements at stake are considered, including population, hospitals, critical facilities, buildings of historic value, industrial infrastructures, gas and electricity networks, railways, roads, footways and finally land use. All these elements were combined with the 1669 and 1981 lava flow fields to quantify the social damage and economic loss.

  20. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    SciTech Connect

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  1. Preliminary characterization of risks in the nuclear waste management system based on information in the literature

    SciTech Connect

    Daling, P.M.; Rhoads, R.E.; Van Luick, A.E.; Fecht, B.A.; Nilson, S.A.; Sevigny, N.L.; Armstrong, G.R.; Hill, D.H.; Rowe, M.; Stern, E.

    1992-01-01

    This document presents preliminary information on the radiological and nonradiological risks in the nuclear waste management system. The objective of the study was to (1) review the literature containing information on risks in the nuclear waste management system and (2) use this information to develop preliminary estimates of the potential magnitude of these risks. Information was collected on a broad range of risk categories to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in communicating information about the risks in the waste management systems. The study examined all of the portions of the nuclear waste management system currently expected to be developed by the DOE. The scope of this document includes the potential repository, the integral MRS facility, and the transportation system that supports the potential repository and the MRS facility. Relevant literature was reviewed for several potential repository sites and geologic media. A wide range of ``risk categories`` are addressed in this report: (1) public and occupational risks from accidents that could release radiological materials, (2) public and occupational radiation exposure resulting from routine operations, (3) public and occupational risks from accidents involving hazards other than radioactive materials, and (4) public and occupational risks from exposure to nonradioactive hazardous materials during routine operations. The report is intended to provide a broad spectrum of risk-related information about the waste management system. This information is intended to be helpful for planning future studies.

  2. Development of sensitive and reliable LC-MS/MS methods for the determination of three fluoroquinolones in water and fish tissue samples and preliminary environmental risk assessment of their presence in two rivers in northern Poland.

    PubMed

    Wagil, Marta; Kumirska, Jolanta; Stolte, Stefan; Puckowski, Alan; Maszkowska, Joanna; Stepnowski, Piotr; Białk-Bielińska, Anna

    2014-09-15

    Antibiotic consumption (e.g. fluoroquinolones (FQs)) and, as a consequence, their presence in the environment, have received a lot of attention in the last several years due to increasing numbers of diseases and infections that are becoming resistant to traditional treatments for both humans and animals. In addition, even though antibiotics are safe for human and veterinary usage, ecosystems may be exposed to these substances. In this study, analytical methods for determining enrofloxacin (ENR), norfloxacin (NOR) and ciprofloxacin (CIP) in water samples and fish tissue based on the LC-MS/MS technique were developed and validated. As there is no data available concerning the risks posed by antibiotics in Poland, the proposed methods were applied for monitoring drug presence in environmental samples collected from two rivers in northern Poland. Evaluations of the ecotoxicity of ENR, NOR and CIP towards four different species of aquatic organisms: marine bacteria (Vibrio fischeri), green algae (Scenedesmus vacuolatus), duckweed (Lemna minor) and crustacean (Daphnia magna), were also carried out. All the investigated compounds were detected at least once in the survey. NOR was found to be the most ubiquitous drug with concentrations of up to 442.8 ng L(-1). Moreover, it was established that L. minor is the most sensitive species to the investigated drugs (EC50NOR = 0.13 mg L(-1), EC50ENR = 0.22 mg L(-1) and EC50CIP = 0.34 mg L(-1)). The calculated risk quotient (RQ) values confirmed that the concentrations of the investigated FQs in the environmental samples were at a level of moderate environmental risk (1risk (RQCIP = 8.1). PMID:25016107

  3. Development of sensitive and reliable LC-MS/MS methods for the determination of three fluoroquinolones in water and fish tissue samples and preliminary environmental risk assessment of their presence in two rivers in northern Poland.

    PubMed

    Wagil, Marta; Kumirska, Jolanta; Stolte, Stefan; Puckowski, Alan; Maszkowska, Joanna; Stepnowski, Piotr; Białk-Bielińska, Anna

    2014-09-15

    Antibiotic consumption (e.g. fluoroquinolones (FQs)) and, as a consequence, their presence in the environment, have received a lot of attention in the last several years due to increasing numbers of diseases and infections that are becoming resistant to traditional treatments for both humans and animals. In addition, even though antibiotics are safe for human and veterinary usage, ecosystems may be exposed to these substances. In this study, analytical methods for determining enrofloxacin (ENR), norfloxacin (NOR) and ciprofloxacin (CIP) in water samples and fish tissue based on the LC-MS/MS technique were developed and validated. As there is no data available concerning the risks posed by antibiotics in Poland, the proposed methods were applied for monitoring drug presence in environmental samples collected from two rivers in northern Poland. Evaluations of the ecotoxicity of ENR, NOR and CIP towards four different species of aquatic organisms: marine bacteria (Vibrio fischeri), green algae (Scenedesmus vacuolatus), duckweed (Lemna minor) and crustacean (Daphnia magna), were also carried out. All the investigated compounds were detected at least once in the survey. NOR was found to be the most ubiquitous drug with concentrations of up to 442.8 ng L(-1). Moreover, it was established that L. minor is the most sensitive species to the investigated drugs (EC50NOR = 0.13 mg L(-1), EC50ENR = 0.22 mg L(-1) and EC50CIP = 0.34 mg L(-1)). The calculated risk quotient (RQ) values confirmed that the concentrations of the investigated FQs in the environmental samples were at a level of moderate environmental risk (1risk (RQCIP = 8.1).

  4. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect

    2009-01-18

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program (The Program). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC, in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE).

  5. TOXICOGENOMICS AND HUMAN DISEASE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory


    Toxicogenomics and Human Disease Risk Assessment.

    Complete sequencing of human and other genomes, availability of large-scale gene
    expression arrays with ever-increasing numbers of genes displayed, and steady
    improvements in protein expression technology can hav...

  6. Risk Assessment with Adolescent Sex Offenders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christodoulides, T. E.; Richardson, G.; Graham, F.; Kennedy, P. J.; Kelly, T. P.

    2005-01-01

    The paper describes an evaluation of a risk assessment tool's effectiveness in distinguishing adolescent sexual offenders who had committed further sexual offences from those who had not. The sample consisted of 50 male adolescent sexual offenders referred to a forensic outpatient service within a healthcare setting. The adolescents within the…

  7. Computational Toxicology in Cancer Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment over the last half century has, for many individual cases served us well, but has proceeded on an extremely slow pace and has left us with considerable uncertainty. There are certainly thousands of compounds and thousands of exposure scenarios that remain unteste...

  8. Chemical Mixtures: Cancer Risk Assessment Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    Presentation will describe how EPA uses linear and nonlinear methods to derive cancer slope factors and reference doses,respectively, for single carcinogens, as described in EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. Then, the presentation will show how these toxicity ...

  9. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR QUANTITATIVE RESPONSE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Relative Potency Factor approach (RPF) is used to normalize and combine different toxic potencies among a group of chemicals selected for cumulative risk assessment. The RPF method assumes that the slopes of the dose-response functions are all equal; but this method depends o...

  10. Clinical Model for Suicide Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kral, Michael J.; Sakinofsky, Isaac

    1994-01-01

    Presents suicide risk assessment in a two-tiered model comprising background/contextual factors and subjectivity. The subjectivity portion is formulated around Shneidman's concepts of perturbation and lethality. Discusses decision of hospital admission versus ambulatory care. Suggests that theoretically informed approach should serve both…

  11. Assessing suicide risk in older adults.

    PubMed

    Diggle-Fox, Barbara Suzy

    2016-10-20

    Suicide in older adults is continuing to rise and, as the older population increases, so will the rate of suicide. By learning more about the risk factors, assessment areas to explore, and ways to improve treatment, primary care providers can help decrease the incidence of suicidal behaviors in this population. PMID:27623296

  12. AXES OF EXTRAPOLATION IN RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extrapolation in risk assessment involves the use of data and information to estimate or predict something that has not been measured or observed. Reasons for extrapolation include that the number of combinations of environmental stressors and possible receptors is too large to c...

  13. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MICROBIAL AGENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Compared to chemical risk assessment, the process for microbial agents and infectious disease is more complex because of host factors and the variety of settings in which disease transmission can occur. While the National Academy of Science has established a paradigm for performi...

  14. The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

    The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

  15. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    PubMed

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  16. Resources for global risk assessment: The International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases

    SciTech Connect

    Wullenweber, Andrea Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database ( (www.tera.org/iter)) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at (http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm), and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET ( (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/)). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  17. Small scale water recycling systems--risk assessment and modelling.

    PubMed

    Diaper, C; Dixon, A; Bulier, D; Fewkes, A; Parsons, S A; Strathern, M; Stephenson, T; Strutt, J

    2001-01-01

    This paper aims to use quantitative risk analysis, risk modelling and simulation modelling tools to assess the performance of a proprietary single house grey water recycling system. A preliminary Hazard and Operability study (HAZOP) identified the main hazards, both health related and economic, associated with installing the recycling system in a domestic environment. The health related consequences of system failure were associated with the presence of increased concentrations of micro-organisms at the point of use, due to failure of the disinfection system and/or the pump. The risk model was used to assess the increase in the probability of infection for a particular genus of micro-organism, Salmonella spp, during disinfection failure. The increase in the number of cases of infection above a base rate rose from 0.001% during normal operation, to 4% for a recycling system with no disinfection. The simulation model was used to examine the possible effects of pump failure. The model indicated that the anaerobic COD release rate in the system storage tank increases over time and dissolved oxygen decreases during this failure mode. These conditions are likely to result in odour problems.

  18. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  19. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    PubMed

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates.

  20. Fragility fracture: recent developments in risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Aspray, Terry J

    2015-02-01

    More than half of older women who sustain a fragility fracture do not have osteoporosis by World Health Organization (WHO) bone mineral density (BMD) criteria; and, while BMD has been used to assess fracture risk for over 30 years, a range of other skeletal and nonskeletal clinical risk factors (CRFs) for fracture have been recognized. More than 30 assessment tools using CRFs have been developed, some predicting fracture risk and others low BMD alone. Recent systematic reviews have reported that many tools have not been validated against fracture incidence, and that the complexity of tools and the number of CRFs included do not ensure best performance with poor assessment of (internal or comparative) validity. Internationally, FRAX® is the most commonly recommended tool, in addition to QFracture in the UK, The Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada (CAROC) tool in Canada and Garvan in Australia. All tools estimate standard 10-year risk of major osteoporotic and 10-year risk of hip fracture: FRAX® is able to estimate fracture risk either with or without BMD, but CAROC and Garvan both require BMD and QFracture does not. The best evidence for the utility of these tools is in case finding but there may be future prospects for the use of 10-year fracture risk as a common currency with reference to the benefits of treatment, whether pharmacological or lifestyle. The use of this metric is important in supporting health economic analyses. However, further calibration studies will be needed to prove that the tools are robust and that their estimates can be used in supporting treatment decisions, independent of BMD.

  1. Multilocus Genetic Risk Scores for Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David‐Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    Background Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL‐rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT‐rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). Methods and Results TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age‐ and sex‐matched case–control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature‐based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5‐rs6025 and F2‐rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. Conclusions We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. PMID:25341889

  2. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect

    McVeigh, J.; Cohen, J.; Vorum, M.; Porro, G.; Nix, G.

    2007-03-01

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program ('the Program'). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC (PERI), in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE). This requires both computational development (i.e., creating a spreadsheet-based analysis tool) and a synthesis of judgments by a panel of researchers and experts of the expected results of the Program's R&D.

  3. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons

    SciTech Connect

    Evangelista de Duffard, A.M.; Duffard, R.

    1996-04-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone, dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or charges in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. 121 refs., 1 tab.

  4. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons.

    PubMed Central

    Evangelista de Duffard, A M; Duffard, R

    1996-01-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone,dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or changes in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. PMID:9182042

  5. Opioid risk assessment in palliative medicine.

    PubMed

    Dale, Rebecca; Edwards, Jeremy; Ballantyne, Jane

    2016-03-01

    Pain management with opioids is an integral part of palliative medicine. As the doses and durations of opioid therapy increase, the inherent risks of opioid therapy rise. Although opioids are effective analgesics, they bring with them complex medical and psychological side effects. Aberrant behavior is dangerous and can be difficult to identify as it results in a splitting in the goals of treatment between the patient and providers. One effective strategy in preventing that situation is through the early identification of at-risk patients. There are several tools that can help identify patients at higher risk of addiction and aberrant behaviors during opioid therapy. Structured use of these tools in conjunction with the clinic exam, regular follow-up visits, and lab testing can further reduce patient risk and improve success in opioid therapy. This article will review the background behind a structured strategy for opioid risk assessment using the Opioid Risk Tool, SOAPP-R, and DIRE tools. In addition, example aberrant behaviors and follow-up strategies will be reviewed. It will be demonstrated that careful screening and follow-up allow risk factors to be recognized and addressed early. PMID:27058865

  6. Silent Aircraft Initiative Concept Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nickol, Craig L.

    2008-01-01

    A risk assessment of the Silent Aircraft Initiative's SAX-40 concept design for extremely low noise has been performed. A NASA team developed a list of 27 risk items, and evaluated the level of risk for each item in terms of the likelihood that the risk would occur and the consequences of the occurrence. The following risk items were identified as high risk, meaning that the combination of likelihood and consequence put them into the top one-fourth of the risk matrix: structures and weight prediction; boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) and inlet design; variable-area exhaust and thrust vectoring; displaced-threshold and continuous descent approach (CDA) operational concepts; cost; human factors; and overall noise performance. Several advanced-technology baseline concepts were created to serve as a basis for comparison to the SAX-40 concept. These comparisons indicate that the SAX-40 would have significantly greater research, development, test, and engineering (RDT&E) and production costs than a conventional aircraft with similar technology levels. Therefore, the cost of obtaining the extremely low noise capability that has been estimated for the SAX-40 is significant. The SAX-40 concept design proved successful in focusing attention toward low noise technologies and in raising public awareness of the issue.

  7. A toolbox for rockfall Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agliardi, F.; Mavrouli, O.; Schubert, M.; Corominas, J.; Crosta, G. B.; Faber, M. H.; Frattini, P.; Narasimhan, H.

    2012-04-01

    Rockfall Quantitative Risk Analysis for mitigation design and implementation requires evaluating the probability of rockfall events, the probability and intensity of impacts on structures (elements at risk and countermeasures), their vulnerability, and the related expected costs for different scenarios. A sound theoretical framework has been developed during the last years both for spatially-distributed and local (i.e. single element at risk) analyses. Nevertheless, the practical application of existing methodologies remains challenging, due to difficulties in the collection of required data and to the lack of simple, dedicated analysis tools. In order to fill this gap, specific tools have been developed in the form of Excel spreadsheets, in the framework of Safeland EU project. These tools can be used by stakeholders, practitioners and other interested parties for the quantitative calculation of rock fall risk through its key components (probabilities, vulnerability, loss), using combinations of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Three tools have been developed, namely: QuRAR (by UNIMIB), VulBlock (by UPC), and RiskNow-Falling Rocks (by ETH Zurich). QuRAR implements a spatially distributed, quantitative assessment methodology of rockfall risk for individual buildings or structures in a multi-building context (urban area). Risk is calculated in terms of expected annual cost, through the evaluation of rockfall event probability, propagation and impact probability (by 3D numerical modelling of rockfall trajectories), and empirical vulnerability for different risk protection scenarios. Vulblock allows a detailed, analytical calculation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete frame buildings to rockfalls and related fragility curves, both as functions of block velocity and the size. The calculated vulnerability can be integrated in other methodologies/procedures based on the risk equation, by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock

  8. Microbiological risk assessment in developing countries.

    PubMed

    Cahill, Sarah M; Jouve, Jean-Louis R

    2004-09-01

    Microbiological risk assessment (MRA) has been evolving at the national and international levels as a systematic and objective approach for evaluating information pertaining to microbiological hazards in foods and the risks they pose. This process has been catalyzed by international food trade requirements to base sanitary measures on sound scientific evidence and appropriate risk assessments. All countries, including developing countries, need to understand and use MRA. MRA is resource intensive, as has been demonstrated by some of the the assessments undertaken in industrialized countries. However, when used in the appropriate circumstances MRA offers many benefits. The process of undertaking MRA improves the understanding of key issues, enables an objective evaluation of risk management options, and provides a scientific justification for actions. Although the gap between developing countries and some industrialized countries is quite extensive with regard to MRA, many developing countries recognize the need to at least understand and move toward using MRA. This process requires development of infrastructure and enhancement of scientific and technical expertise while making optimal use of limited resources. International organizations, such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, are in a position to provide countries with guidance, training, information resources, and technical assistance to develop and/or strengthen food safety infrastructure. Enhanced cooperation and collaboration at all levels are needed for such efforts to be successful and to ensure that MRA, as a food safety tool, is available to all countries. PMID:15453597

  9. Clinical Risk Assessment in Intensive Care Unit

    PubMed Central

    Asefzadeh, Saeed; Yarmohammadian, Mohammad H.; Nikpey, Ahmad; Atighechian, Golrokh

    2013-01-01

    Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin's Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital) through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG) performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN) was in respiratory care “Ventilator's alarm malfunction (no alarm)” with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal “not washing the NG-Tube” with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care. PMID:23930171

  10. 2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

  11. Trends in quantitative cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Morris, S C

    1991-01-01

    Quantitative cancer risk assessment is a dynamic field, more closely coupled to rapidly advancing biomedical research than ever before. Six areas of change and growth are identified: expansion from models of cancer initiation to a more complete picture of the total carcinogenic process; trend from curve-fitting to biologically based models; movement from upperbound estimates to best estimates, with a more complete treatment of uncertainty; increased consideration of the role of susceptibility; growing development of expert systems and decision support systems; and emerging importance of risk communication. PMID:2050076

  12. Code System for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment.

    2001-03-27

    Version 00 SEISIM1 calculates the probabilities of seismically induced failures for components and systems and propagates these calculations to determine the probability of accident sequences and the resulting total risk, which is quantified as an expected value of radiation release and exposure from a given nuclear power plant. SEISIM1 was developed as a fundamental tool for the systems analysis portion of the NRC's Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP). The SSMRP provides a complete, self-containedmore » methodology to assess and quantify the risk to nuclear power plants from seismic events and seismically induced failures.« less

  13. Towards a nanospecific approach for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dekkers, Susan; Oomen, Agnes G; Bleeker, Eric A J; Vandebriel, Rob J; Micheletti, Christian; Cabellos, Joan; Janer, Gemma; Fuentes, Natalia; Vázquez-Campos, Socorro; Borges, Teresa; Silva, Maria João; Prina-Mello, Adriele; Movia, Dania; Nesslany, Fabrice; Ribeiro, Ana R; Leite, Paulo Emílio; Groenewold, Monique; Cassee, Flemming R; Sips, Adrienne J A M; Dijkzeul, Aart; van Teunenbroek, Tom; Wijnhoven, Susan W P

    2016-10-01

    In the current paper, a new strategy for risk assessment of nanomaterials is described, which builds upon previous project outcomes and is developed within the FP7 NANoREG project. NANoREG has the aim to develop, for the long term, new testing strategies adapted to a high number of nanomaterials where many factors can affect their environmental and health impact. In the proposed risk assessment strategy, approaches for (Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationships ((Q)SARs), grouping and read-across are integrated and expanded to guide the user how to prioritise those nanomaterial applications that may lead to high risks for human health. Furthermore, those aspects of exposure, kinetics and hazard assessment that are most likely to be influenced by the nanospecific properties of the material under assessment are identified. These aspects are summarised in six elements, which play a key role in the strategy: exposure potential, dissolution, nanomaterial transformation, accumulation, genotoxicity and immunotoxicity. With the current approach it is possible to identify those situations where the use of nanospecific grouping, read-across and (Q)SAR tools is likely to become feasible in the future, and to point towards the generation of the type of data that is needed for scientific justification, which may lead to regulatory acceptance of nanospecific applications of these tools.

  14. Towards a nanospecific approach for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dekkers, Susan; Oomen, Agnes G; Bleeker, Eric A J; Vandebriel, Rob J; Micheletti, Christian; Cabellos, Joan; Janer, Gemma; Fuentes, Natalia; Vázquez-Campos, Socorro; Borges, Teresa; Silva, Maria João; Prina-Mello, Adriele; Movia, Dania; Nesslany, Fabrice; Ribeiro, Ana R; Leite, Paulo Emílio; Groenewold, Monique; Cassee, Flemming R; Sips, Adrienne J A M; Dijkzeul, Aart; van Teunenbroek, Tom; Wijnhoven, Susan W P

    2016-10-01

    In the current paper, a new strategy for risk assessment of nanomaterials is described, which builds upon previous project outcomes and is developed within the FP7 NANoREG project. NANoREG has the aim to develop, for the long term, new testing strategies adapted to a high number of nanomaterials where many factors can affect their environmental and health impact. In the proposed risk assessment strategy, approaches for (Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationships ((Q)SARs), grouping and read-across are integrated and expanded to guide the user how to prioritise those nanomaterial applications that may lead to high risks for human health. Furthermore, those aspects of exposure, kinetics and hazard assessment that are most likely to be influenced by the nanospecific properties of the material under assessment are identified. These aspects are summarised in six elements, which play a key role in the strategy: exposure potential, dissolution, nanomaterial transformation, accumulation, genotoxicity and immunotoxicity. With the current approach it is possible to identify those situations where the use of nanospecific grouping, read-across and (Q)SAR tools is likely to become feasible in the future, and to point towards the generation of the type of data that is needed for scientific justification, which may lead to regulatory acceptance of nanospecific applications of these tools. PMID:27255696

  15. Improving environmental risk assessment of human pharmaceuticals.

    PubMed

    Ågerstrand, Marlene; Berg, Cecilia; Björlenius, Berndt; Breitholtz, Magnus; Brunström, Björn; Fick, Jerker; Gunnarsson, Lina; Larsson, D G Joakim; Sumpter, John P; Tysklind, Mats; Rudén, Christina

    2015-05-01

    This paper presents 10 recommendations for improving the European Medicines Agency's guidance for environmental risk assessment of human pharmaceutical products. The recommendations are based on up-to-date, available science in combination with experiences from other chemical frameworks such as the REACH-legislation for industrial chemicals. The recommendations concern: expanding the scope of the current guideline; requirements to assess the risk for development of antibiotic resistance; jointly performed assessments; refinement of the test proposal; mixture toxicity assessments on active pharmaceutical ingredients with similar modes of action; use of all available ecotoxicity studies; mandatory reviews; increased transparency; inclusion of emission data from production; and a risk management option. We believe that implementation of our recommendations would strengthen the protection of the environment and be beneficial to society. Legislation and guidance documents need to be updated at regular intervals in order to incorporate new knowledge from the scientific community. This is particularly important for regulatory documents concerning pharmaceuticals in the environment since this is a research field that has been growing substantially in the last decades.

  16. Preliminary environmental assessment for the Satellite Power System (SPS). Volume 2: Detailed assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    Volume 2 provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of the Satellite Power System (SPS) on the environment in a technically detailed format more suitable for peer review than the executive summary of Vol. 1. It serves to integrate and assimilate information that has appeared in documents referenced herein and to focus on issues that are purely environmental. It discloses the state-of-knowledge as perceived from recently completed DOE-sponsored studies and defines prospective research and study programs that can advance the state-of-knowledge and provide an expanded data base for use in an assessment planned for 1980. Alternatives for research that may be implemented in order to achieve this advancement are also discussed.

  17. Value impact assessment: A preliminary assessment of improvement opportunities at the Quantico Central Heating Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Brambley, M.R.; Weakley, S.A.

    1990-09-01

    This report presents the results of a preliminary assessment of opportunities for improvement at the US Marine Corps (USMC) Quantico, Virginia, Central Heating Plant (CHP). This study is part of a program intended to provide the CHP staff with a computerized Artificial Intelligence (AI) decision support system that will assist in a more efficient, reliable, and safe operation of their plant. As part of the effort to provide the AI decision support system, a team of six scientists and engineers from the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) visited the plant to characterize the conditions and environment of the CHP. This assessment resulted in a list of potential performance improvement opportunities at the CHP. In this report, 12 of these opportunities are discussed and qualitatively analyzed. 70 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.

  18. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth.

  19. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. PMID:26215051

  20. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  1. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed Central

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a “gold standard” for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  2. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  3. Risk and revisionism in arsenic cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Mushak, P; Crocetti, A F

    1995-01-01

    Oral exposures of nonoccupational populations to environmental inorganic arsenic are associated with skin and internal cancers as well as various noncarcinogenic effects. Cancer risk assessments have been based largely on epidemiological studies of a large population exposed to inorganic arsenic in well water in Taiwan. Criticisms and skepticism of the use of the Taiwanese data for estimating arsenic cancer risks outside of Taiwan, including potential use by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for regulatory purposes, have been expressed on various grounds. The nature and extent of such criticisms have sharpened with recent findings in the exposed Taiwanese of increased incidence of internal cancers (bladder, kidney, liver, and lung), in addition to already-observed skin cancer, coupled with a good likelihood that these findings will produce more stringent arsenic regulation in the United States and elsewhere. These criticisms collectively posit a revisionist view that: 1) cancer incidence among the Taiwanese was amplified by a number of host and environmental factors not applicable elsewhere, 2) the cancer dose-response curve may not be linear at the lower exposures elsewhere, and 3) there is a toxicokinetic and metabolic threshold to cancer risk that was exceeded by the Taiwanese. However, a number of the arguments against wide use of the Taiwanese data are flawed and subject to challenge. We explore some of these arguments and their critical evaluation, particularly as they concern certain exposure, metabolic, and nutritional determinants of the cancer risk of inorganic arsenic in the Taiwanese. PMID:7588479

  4. Revisions to US EPA Superfund Risk and Dose Assessment Models and Guidance - 13403

    SciTech Connect

    Walker, Stuart A.

    2013-07-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Superfund program's six Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) internet based calculators for risk and dose assessment at Superfund sites are being revised to reflect better science, revisions to existing exposure scenarios and new scenarios, and changes to match up more closely with the EPA chemical regional screening level calculator. A revised version of the 1999 guidance document that provides an overview for the Superfund risk assessment process at radioactively contaminated sites, 'Radiation Risk Assessment At CERCLA Sites: Q and A', is being completed that will reflect Superfund recommended guidance and other technical documents issued over the past 13 years. EPA is also issuing a series of fact sheets in the document 'Superfund Radiation Risk Assessment: A Community Tool-kit'. This presentation would go over those changes that are expected to be finished by this spring. (authors)

  5. [Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms].

    PubMed

    Costa, Thadeu Estevam Moreira Maramaldo; Dias, Aline Peçanha Muzy; Scheidegger, Erica Miranda Damasio; Marin, Victor Augustus

    2011-01-01

    Since the commercial approve in 1996, the global area of transgenic crops has raised more than 50 times. In the last two decades, governments have been planning strategies and protocols for safety assessment of food and feed genetically modified (GM). Evaluation of food safety should be taken on a case-by-case analysis depending on the specific traits of the modified crops and the changes introduced by the genetic modification, using for this the concept of substantial equivalence. This work presents approaches for the risk assessment of GM food, as well as some problems related with the genetic construction or even with the expression of the inserted gene.

  6. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  7. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    SciTech Connect

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  8. [Methods of risk assessment and their validation].

    PubMed

    Baracco, Alessandro

    2014-01-01

    The review of the literature data shows several methods for the the risks assessment of biomnechanical overload of the musculoskeletal system in activities with repetitive strain of the upper limbs and manual material handling. The application of these methods should allow the quantification ofriskfor the working population, the identification of the preventive measures to reduce the risk and their effectiveness and thle design of a specific health surveillance scheme. In this paper we analyze the factors which must be taken into account in Occupational Medicine to implement a process of validation of these methods. In conclusion we believe it will necessary in the future the availability of new methods able to analyze and reduce the risk already in the design phase of the production process. PMID:25558718

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment of disassembly procedures

    SciTech Connect

    O`Brien, D.A.; Bement, T.R.; Letellier, B.C.

    1993-11-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe the use of Probabilistic Risk (Safety) Assessment (PRA or PSA) at a Department of Energy (DOE) facility. PRA is a methodology for (i) identifying combinations of events that, if they occur, lead to accidents (ii) estimating the frequency of occurrence of each combination of events and (iii) estimating the consequences of each accident. Specifically the study focused on evaluating the risks associated with dissembling a hazardous assembly. The PRA for the operation included a detailed evaluation only for those potential accident sequences which could lead to significant off-site consequences and affect public health. The overall purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of establishing a risk-consequence goal for DOE operations.

  10. Degraded Environments Alter Prey Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Lönnstedt, Oona M; McCormick, Mark I; Chivers, Douglas P

    2013-01-01

    Elevated water temperatures, a decrease in ocean pH, and an increasing prevalence of severe storms have lead to bleaching and death of the hard corals that underpin coral reef ecosystems. As coral cover declines, fish diversity and abundance declines. How degradation of coral reefs affects behavior of reef inhabitants is unknown. Here, we demonstrate that risk assessment behaviors of prey are severely affected by coral degradation. Juvenile damselfish were exposed to visual and olfactory indicators of predation risk in healthy live, thermally bleached, and dead coral in a series of laboratory and field experiments. While fish still responded to visual cues in all habitats, they did not respond to olfactory indicators of risk in dead coral habitats, likely as a result of alteration or degradation of chemical cues. These cues are critical for learning and avoiding predators, and a failure to respond can have dramatic repercussions for survival and recruitment. PMID:23403754

  11. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-11-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  12. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-01-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  13. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  14. Risk assessment of GM plants: avoiding gridlock?

    PubMed

    Wilkinson, Mike J; Sweet, Jeremy; Poppy, Guy M

    2003-05-01

    Cultivation of genetically modified crops is presently based largely on four crops containing few transgenes and grown in four countries. This will soon change and pose new challenges for risk assessment. A more structured approach that is as generic as possible is advocated to study consequences of gene flow. Hazards should be precisely defined and prioritized, with emphasis on quantifying elements of exposure. This requires coordinated effort between large, multidisciplinary research teams.

  15. Implementing caries risk assessment and clinical interventions.

    PubMed

    Young, Douglas A; Featherstone, John D B

    2010-07-01

    This article suggests a practical methodology to implement the scientific information presented in the earlier articles into clinical practice. The Caries Balance/Imbalance Model and a practical caries risk assessment procedure for patients aged 6 years through adult illustrate evidence-based treatment options. Neither the forms nor the clinical protocols are meant to imply that there is currently only one correct way that this can be achieved; they are used in this article only as examples.

  16. Preliminary Volcano-Hazard Assessment for Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Waythomas, Christopher F.; Dorava, Joseph M.; Miller, Thomas P.; Neal, Christina A.; McGimsey, Robert G.

    1997-01-01

    Redoubt Volcano is a stratovolcano located within a few hundred kilometers of more than half of the population of Alaska. This volcano has erupted explosively at least six times since historical observations began in 1778. The most recent eruption occurred in 1989-90 and similar eruptions can be expected in the future. The early part of the 1989-90 eruption was characterized by explosive emission of substantial volumes of volcanic ash to altitudes greater than 12 kilometers above sea level and widespread flooding of the Drift River valley. Later, the eruption became less violent, as developing lava domes collapsed, forming short-lived pyroclastic flows associated with low-level ash emission. Clouds of volcanic ash had significant effects on air travel as they drifted across Alaska, over Canada, and over parts of the conterminous United States causing damage to jet aircraft. Economic hardships were encountered by the people of south-central Alaska as a result of ash fallout. Based on new information gained from studies of the 1989-90 eruption, an updated assessment of the principal volcanic hazards is now possible. Volcanic hazards from a future eruption of Redoubt Volcano require public awareness and planning so that risks to life and property are reduced as much as possible.

  17. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  18. Ecological risk assessment benefits environmental management

    SciTech Connect

    Fairbrother, A.; Kapustka, L.A.; Williams, B.A.; Glicken, J.

    1994-12-31

    The ecological risk assessment process in its ideal form is an unbiased approach for assessing the probability of harm to the environment as a consequence of a given action. This information can then be combined with other societal values and biases in the management of such risks. However, as the process currently is understood, decision makers often are accused of manipulating information in order to generate decisions or achieve buy in from the public in support of a particular political agenda. A clear understanding of the nature of the risk management process can help define areas where information should be free from social or personal bias, and areas where values and judgments are critical. The authors do not propose to discuss the individual`s decision-making process, but rather to address the social process of risk communication and environmentally-related decision-making, identifying which parts of that process require bias-free, scientifically generated information about the consequences of various actions and which parts need an understanding of the social values which underlie the informed choices among those possible actions.

  19. Korean Risk Assessment Model for Breast Cancer Risk Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Methods Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. Results The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (p<0.001 and <0.001, respectively). The observed incidence of breast cancer in the two cohorts was similar to the expected incidence from the KoBCRAT (KMCC, p = 0.880; NCC, p = 0.878). The AUC using the KoBCRAT was 0.61 for the KMCC and 0.89 for the NCC cohort. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the KoBCRAT is a better tool for predicting the risk of breast cancer in Korean women, especially urban women. PMID:24204664

  20. A Preliminary Evaluation of Season-ahead Flood Risks Globally

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, D.; Ward, P.; Block, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    Globally, flood catastrophes lead all natural hazards in terms of impacts on society, causing billions of dollars of damages each year. While short-term flood warning systems are improving in number and sophistication, forecasting systems on the order of months to seasons are a rarity, yet may lead to further disaster preparedness. In this study, prospects of season-ahead flood forecasts are investigated by examining inter-annual climate variability on seasonal maximum floods, particularly how ENSO and other large-scale phenomena may modulate discharge and flood severity. Predictability of main seasonal floods is also assessed globally using PCR-GLOBWB simulations with large- and local- climate drivers, and validated with GRDC streamflow. Skillful prediction can lead to season-ahead flood probabilities, flood extent, estimated damages, and eventually integrate into early warning systems for informed advanced planning and management. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and/or little capacity to develop early warning flood systems.

  1. Space Radiation Risk Assessment for Future Lunar Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ponomarev, Artem; Atwell, Bill; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2007-01-01

    For lunar exploration mission design, radiation risk assessments require the understanding of future space radiation environments in support of resource management decisions, operational planning, and a go/no-go decision. The future GCR flux was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which was coupled with the estimated neutron monitor rate from the Climax monitor using a statistical model. A probability distribution function for solar particle event (SPE) occurrence was formed from proton fluence measurements of SPEs occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Large proton SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice for which the fluences are greater than 2 10(exp 9) protons/sq cm for energies greater than 30 MeV, were also combined to extend the probability calculation for high level of proton fluences. The probability with which any given proton fluence level of a SPE will be exceeded during a space mission of defined duration was then calculated. Analytic energy spectra of SPEs at different ranks of the integral fluences were constructed over broad energy ranges extending out to GeV, and representative exposure levels were analyzed at those fluences. For the development of an integrated strategy for radiation protection on lunar exploration missions, effective doses at various points inside a spacecraft were calculated with detailed geometry models representing proposed transfer vehicle and habitat concepts. Preliminary radiation risk assessments from SPE and GCR were compared for various configuration concepts of radiation shelter in exploratory-class spacecrafts.

  2. Violence risk assessment as a medical intervention: ethical tensions

    PubMed Central

    Roychowdhury, Ashimesh; Adshead, Gwen

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment differs from other medical interventions in that the welfare of the patient is not the immediate object of the intervention. However, improving the risk assessment process may reduce the chance of risk assessment itself being unjust. We explore the ethical arguments in relation to risk assessment as a medical intervention, drawing analogies, where applicable, with ethical arguments raised by general medical investigations. The article concludes by supporting the structured professional judgement approach as a method of risk assessment that is most consistent with the respect for principles of medical ethics. Recommendations are made for the future direction of risk assessment indicated by ethical theory. PMID:25237503

  3. Offshore blowouts, data for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Holand, P.

    1995-12-31

    Blowouts are, besides gas leakages, the major contributor to the total risk for offshore installations. Therefore, the blowout risk is always included in Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) of offshore installations in the Norwegian Sector of the North Sea. SINTEF Offshore Blowout Database has existed since 1984 (until 1990 it was called Marintek`s blowout database). In 1990 the responsibility of the database was transferred to SINTEF Safety and Reliability. Throughout these years the database has been used for assessing blowout risk associated to development and operation of fields offshore Norway. Six oil companies and two consultants are presently sponsoring the database. These companies are using the database when performing risk analyses. During the past three years the database has been subjected to a thorough quality improvement, both with respect to the user interface, and most important, regarding the blowout data included in the database. What is unique with this database, besides the high quality of blowout descriptions, is first that the blowout causes are categorized related to loss of primary and secondary barriers. Secondly that the user interface makes it possible to establish searches to withdraw information regarding any blowout type subjected for specific searches.

  4. Suicide risk assessment and suicide risk formulation: essential components of the therapeutic risk management model.

    PubMed

    Silverman, Morton M

    2014-09-01

    Suicide and other suicidal behaviors are often associated with psychiatric disorders and dysfunctions. Therefore, psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-risk individuals and offer treatment to reduce that risk. Although a suicide risk assessment is a core competency requirement, many clinical psychiatrists lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide risk. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide risk formulation sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. Based on data collected via a suicide risk assessment, a suicide risk formulation is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable risk of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment planning, and interventions to reduce risk. This paper addresses the components of this process in the context of the model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient developed at the Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) 19 Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center by Wortzel et al.

  5. Project Fox: Assessing Risks Posed By Asteroids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhardt, J.; Chen, X.; Liu, W.; Manchev, P.; Paté-Cornell, M.

    2013-12-01

    In order to make decisions on how to invest limited research dollars on asteroid surveillance and mitigation options, an analytic understanding of the risks posed by impacts is necessary. Qualitative and quantitative studies have been performed to assess such risks, and some reasonable point estimates have been proposed. However, since consequential asteroid impacts tend to be rare events, point estimates and expected annual death rates do not adequately convey the heavy tail of the distribution, potentially leading to misguided resource allocations. We propose and develop a framework for new risk measures, including a distribution over the number of fatalities from asteroid impacts and the probability of a globally consequential impact. We implement a simulation of asteroid impacts using probabilistic inputs for impactor characteristics, and a Poisson process for asteroid arrivals over the next 100 years. Simulation results indicate that a significant portion of the risk to humans comes from asteroids in the 300-1000 meter diameter range; this is because asteroid impacts in this range can produce global effects, and are more frequent than those from asteroids greater than 1km in diameter. The relative importance of this size regime in overall asteroid impact risk is robust in simulation results, and we find the magnitude of risks is still sensitive to factors that contribute global effects from an asteroid impact. Initial results are provided on the sensitivity of impact risks to various mitigation measures, including 'civil defense' methods. These results underscore the need for next-generation survey missions, and can help provide the basis for setting future space telescope observation requirements.

  6. Risk assessment of CST-7 proposed waste treatment and storage facilities Volume I: Limited-scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of proposed CST-7 waste treatment & storage facilities. Volume II: Preliminary hazards analysis of proposed CST-7 waste storage & treatment facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Sasser, K.

    1994-06-01

    In FY 1993, the Los Alamos National Laboratory Waste Management Group [CST-7 (formerly EM-7)] requested the Probabilistic Risk and Hazards Analysis Group [TSA-11 (formerly N-6)] to conduct a study of the hazards associated with several CST-7 facilities. Among these facilities are the Hazardous Waste Treatment Facility (HWTF), the HWTF Drum Storage Building (DSB), and the Mixed Waste Receiving and Storage Facility (MWRSF), which are proposed for construction beginning in 1996. These facilities are needed to upgrade the Laboratory`s storage capability for hazardous and mixed wastes and to provide treatment capabilities for wastes in cases where offsite treatment is not available or desirable. These facilities will assist Los Alamos in complying with federal and state requlations.

  7. Water risk assessment for river basins in China based on WWF water risk assessment tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, N.; Qiu, Y.; Gan, H.; Niu, C.; Liu, J.; Gan, Y.; Zhou, N.

    2014-09-01

    Water resource problems, one of the most important environmental and socio-economic issues, have been a common concern worldwide in recent years. Water resource risks are attracting more and more attention from the international community and national governments. Given the current situations of water resources and the water environment, and the characteristics of water resources management and information statistics of China, this paper establishes an index system for water risk assessment in river basins of China based on the index system of water risk assessment proposed by the World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF) and German Investment and Development Co., Ltd (DEG). The new system is more suitable for Chinese national conditions and endorses the international assessment index. A variety of factors are considered to determine the critical values of classification for each index, and the indexes are graded by means of 5-grade and 5-score scales; the weights and calculation methods of some indexes are adjusted, with the remaining indexes adopting the method of WWF. The Weighted Comprehensive Index Summation Process is adopted to calculate the integrated assessment score of the river basin. The method is applied to the Haihe River basin in China. The assessment shows that the method can accurately reflect the water risk level of different river basins. Finally, the paper discusses the continuing problems in water risk assessment and points out the research required to provide a reference for further study in this field.

  8. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  9. Preliminary tsunami hazard assessment in British Columbia, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Insua, T. L.; Grilli, A. R.; Grilli, S. T.; Shelby, M. R.; Wang, K.; Gao, D.; Cherniawsky, J. Y.; Harris, J. C.; Heesemann, M.; McLean, S.; Moran, K.

    2015-12-01

    Ocean Networks Canada (ONC), a not-for-profit initiative by the University of Victoria that operates several cabled ocean observatories, is developing a new generation of ocean observing systems (referred to as Smart Ocean Systems™), involving advanced undersea observation technologies, data networks and analytics. The ONC Tsunami project is a Smart Ocean Systems™ project that addresses the need for a near-field tsunami detection system for the coastal areas of British Columbia. Recent studies indicate that there is a 40-80% probability over the next 50 for a significant tsunami impacting the British Columbia (BC) coast with runups higher than 1.5 m. The NEPTUNE cabled ocean observatory, operated by ONC off of the west coast of British Columbia, could be used to detect near-field tsunami events with existing instrumentation, including seismometers and bottom pressure recorders. As part of this project, new tsunami simulations are underway for the BC coast. Tsunami propagation is being simulated with the FUNWAVE-TVD model, for a suite of new source models representing Cascadia megathrust rupture scenarios. Simulations are performed by one-way coupling in a series of nested model grids (from the source to the BC coast), whose bathymetry was developed based on digital elevation maps (DEMs) of the area, to estimate both tsunami arrival time and coastal runup/inundation for different locations. Besides inundation, maps of additional parameters such as maximum current are being developed, that will aid in tsunami hazard assessment and risk mitigation, as well as developing evacuation plans. We will present initial results of this work for the Port Alberni inlet, in particular Ucluelet, based on new source models developed using the best available data. We will also present a model validation using measurements of the 2011 transpacific Tohoku-oki tsunami recorded in coastal BC by several instruments from various US and Canadian agencies.

  10. Asteroid Airbursts: Risk Assessment and Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2015-12-01

    Airbursts are events in which small (meters to tens-of-meters in diameter) asteroids deposit most of their energy in the atmosphere with a total energy greater than small nuclear explosions (>0.1 kilotons of TNT). The airburst risk is higher than previous assessments for two reasons. First, they are more frequent than previously thought. The Tunguska-class (~40 meters) population estimate has doubled, and Chelyabinsk-class (~20 meters) has increased by a factor of 2.6. Second, asteroid airbursts are significantly more damaging than previously assumed. In most cases, they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions of the same yield. Past Near-Earth Object (NEO) risk assessments concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population but the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from low-probability, high-consequence events is large. Nearly 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course, have been catalogued. This has reduced their assessed near-term statistical risk by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from small objects would therefore be increasing even if their absolute assessed risk were not. Uncertainty in the number of small NEOs remains large and can only be reduced by expanded surveys. One strategy would be to count small NEOs making close passes in statistically significant numbers. For example, there are about 25 times as many objects of a given size that pass within the distance of geosynchronous orbit than collide with the earth, and 2000 times as many pass within a lunar distance (accounting for gravitational focusing). An asteroid the size of the Chelyabinsk impactor (~20 m) could potentially be observed within geosynchronous orbit every two years and within lunar orbit nearly once a week. A Tunguska-sized asteroid (~40 m) passes within a

  11. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    SciTech Connect

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In Section 2 we provide context for this report

  12. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:19048472

  13. Workshop overview: Arsenic research and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Sams, Reeder Wolf, Douglas C.; Ramasamy, Santhini; Ohanian, Ed; Chen, Jonathan; Lowit, Anna

    2007-08-01

    The chronic exposure of humans through consumption of high levels of inorganic arsenic (iAs)-contaminated drinking water is associated with skin lesions, peripheral vascular disease, hypertension, and cancers. Additionally, humans are exposed to organic arsenicals when used as pesticides and herbicides (e.g., monomethylarsonic acid, dimethylarsinic acid (DMA{sup V}) also known as cacodylic acid). Extensive research has been conducted to characterize the adverse health effects that result from exposure to iAs and its metabolites to describe the biological pathway(s) that lead to adverse health effects. To further this effort, on May 31, 2006, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) sponsored a meeting entitled 'Workshop on Arsenic Research and Risk Assessment'. The invited participants from government agencies, academia, independent research organizations and consultants were asked to present their current research. The overall focus of these research efforts has been to determine the potential human health risks due to environmental exposures to arsenicals. Pursuant in these efforts is the elucidation of a mode of action for arsenicals. This paper provides a brief overview of the workshop goals, regulatory context for arsenical research, mode of action (MOA) analysis in human health risk assessment, and the application of MOA analysis for iAs and DMA{sup V}. Subsequent papers within this issue will present the research discussed at the workshop, ensuing discussions, and conclusions of the workshop.

  14. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  15. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  16. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:21384330

  17. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  18. Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

  19. THE ROLE OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN ADDRESSING HAZARDOUS WASTE ISSUES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment plays many important roles in addressing hazardous waste issues. In addition to providing a scientific framework and common health metric to evaluate risks. Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or "Superfund") risk assessm...

  20. Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

  1. PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENTS OF SPATIAL INFLUENCES IN THE AMBOS NOGALES REGION OF THE US-MEXICAN BORDER

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ambient air measurements collected from 1994 to 1995 were used in a preliminary assessment of potential source and spatial influences in the Ambos Nogales border region (Nogales, Arizona, USA and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico). In this assessment, volatile organic compounds (VOC) and...

  2. Preliminary environmental assessment for the Satellite Power System (SPS). Revision 1. Volume 2. Detailed assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is considering several options for generating electrical power to meet future energy needs. The satellite power system (SPS), one of these options, would collect solar energy through a system of satellites in space and transfer this energy to earth. A reference system has been described that would convert the energy to microwaves and transmit the microwave energy via directive antennas to large receiving/rectifying antennas (rectennas) located on the earth. At the rectennas, the microwave energy would be converted into electricity. The potential environmental impacts of constructing and operating the satellite power system are being assessed as a part of the Department of Energy's SPS Concept Development and Evaluation Program. This report is Revision I of the Preliminary Environmental Assessment for the Satellite Power System published in October 1978. It refines and extends the 1978 assessment and provides a basis for a 1980 revision that will guide and support DOE recommendations regarding future SPS development. This is Volume 2 of two volumes. It contains the technical detail suitable for peer review and integrates information appearing in documents referenced herein. The key environmental issues associated with the SPS concern human health and safety, ecosystems, climate, and electromagnetic systems interactions. In order to address these issues in an organized manner, five tasks are reported: (I) microwave-radiation health and ecological effects; (II) nonmicrowave health and ecological effectss; (III) atmospheric effects; (IV) effects on communication systems due to ionospheric disturbance; and (V) electromagnetic compatibility. (WHK)

  3. Ecological risk assessment of contaminated soil.

    PubMed

    Jensen, John; Pedersen, Marianne Bruus

    2006-01-01

    This review has described three cases of ecological risk assessment. The cases include two heavy metals (Cu and Zn) and an anthropogenic organic chemical (DDT). It concludes that there are at least two major constraints hampering the use of laboratory tests to predict effects under natural field conditions. One key issue is bioavailability, and another is suboptimal conditions or multiple stresses in the field such as climatic stress (drought, frost), predators, competition, or food shortage. On the basis of the presented case studies, it was possible to answer three essential questions often raised in connection to ecological risk assessment of contaminated sites. 1. To what extend does soil screening level (SSL) estimate the risk? The SSL are generally derived at levels corresponding to the lowest observed effect levels in laboratory studies, which often is close to the background levels found in many soils. In the cases of zinc and especially DDT, the SSL seemed quite conservative, whereas for copper they resemble the level at which changes in the community structure of soil microarthropods and the plant community have been observed at contaminated sites. The SSL correspond as a whole relatively well with concentrations where no effects or only minor effects were observed in controlled field studies. However, large variation in field surveys can often make it difficult to conclude to what extent the SSL corresponded to no-effect levels in the field. 2. Do bioassays represent a more realistic risk estimate? Here, there is no firm conclusion. The zinc study in UK showed a better relationship between the outcome of ex situ bioassays and field observations than the SSL. The latter overestimated the risk compared to field observations. However, this would be species dependent, as the sensitivity to metals may vary considerably between recognized test species, even within the same group of organisms, such as Folsomia candida and Folsomia fimetaria or Eisenia fetida

  4. Health risk assessment of irradiated topaz

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, J.W.; Baum, J.W.

    1993-01-01

    Irradiated topaz gemstones are currently processed for color improvement by subjecting clear stones to neutron or high-energy electron irradiations, which leads to activation of trace elements in the stones. Assessment of the risk to consumers required the identification and quantification of the resultant radionuclides and the attendant exposure. Representative stones from Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sri Lanka were irradiated and analyzed for gamma ray and beta particle emissions, using sodium iodide and germanium spectrometers; and Geiger-Muller, plastic and liquid scintillation, autoradiography, and thermoluminescent-dosimetry measurement techniques. Based on these studies and other information derived from published literature, dose and related risk estimates were made for typical user conditions. New criteria and methods for routine assays for acceptable release, based on gross beta and gross photon emissions from the stones, were also developed.

  5. Assessment of abilities in basketball: a preliminary study.

    PubMed

    Derri, V; Kioumourtzoglou, E; Tzetzis, G

    1998-08-01

    Understanding the responding at two competitive levels of sports is prerequisite for successful identification and selection of the best athletes. The present study is a preliminary report about scores on 17 cognitive, perceptual, motor, and psychological measures of 13 elite Greek basketball athletes (national team), 20 to 22 years of age, and 15 children on a national basketball team and 14 to 15 years of age. Longitudinal studies must be conducted for the identification of the relationships among these measures and basketball performance and the development of a model for selection of athletes.

  6. Twenty Years of Progress in Violence Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanson, R. Karl

    2005-01-01

    Violence risk assessment has advanced considerably in the last 20 years. In the 1980s, leading professionals questioned the very possibility of valid violence risk assessments; now, many of the major risk factors have been identified, and professional debate focuses on how best to combine these risk factors into meaningful evaluations. An…

  7. Session: Pre-development project risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Curry, Richard; Linehan, Andy

    2004-09-01

    This second session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of two presentations followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The focus of the presentations was on the practices and methodologies used in the wind energy industry for assessing risk to birds and bats at candidate project sites. Presenters offered examples of pre-development siting evaluation requirements set by certain states. Presentation one was titled ''Practices and Methodologies and Initial Screening Tools'' by Richard Curry of Curry and Kerlinger, LLC. Presentation two was titled ''State of the Industry in the Pacific Northwest'' by Andy Linehan, CH2MHILL.

  8. Assessing risk of solid waste compost

    SciTech Connect

    Dyer, J.M.; Razvi, A.S. )

    1987-03-01

    This paper addresses the movement of metals in soils and their accumulation in plants. Research with sewage sludge compost indicates that these risks can be minimized with proper handling and management. The objectives of this study were: (I) to evaluate potential groundwater contamination due to plant nutrients and heavy metals in the compost; and (II) to assess the accumulation of metals in plants grown on compost-amended soil. Data are presented for analyses of nickel, lead, cadmium, copper and zinc in snap beans.

  9. Methodological challenges in health risk assessment. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1987-10-12

    Risk assessment, a major activity of both health and regulatory agencies, is subject to large and unavoidable uncertainties. Thus, different teams of knowledgeable experts can come to different conclusions about risks to human health from various sorts of hazards. This report examines and compares analyses by two or more agencies of ten health hazards or potential hazards: ethylene dibromide, formaldehyde, Tris, dioxin (limited to cancer risks of contaminated soil), lead (reproductive effects), cotton dust, noise (long-term hearing impairment), passive smoking, dietary fat (cancer risks), and the radiation hazards of mammography. Each set of risk assessments is analyzed in depth. The report then turns to cross-cutting analyses of such matters as setting priorities for risk assessment, approaches and methods used to evaluate different kinds of risks, and the relationships between risk assessment and risk management. Overall, the report found large differences among risk assessments of the same hazard, but these differences are often quite appropriate.

  10. Preliminary resource assessment of coalbed methane in the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-04-01

    Preliminary results of the DOE Methane Recovery from Coalbeds Project reveal that many of the coal regions in the United States have significant volumes of coalbed methane. These results show that 45 cooperative wells drilled to date have helped to update the estimates of methane in the various coal regions. The most promising coal region is in the Green River Basin where preliminary estimates show that the methane potential may be over 23 trillion cubic feet. Another area of considerable interest is in the Arkoma Basin where the methane content of coal samples ranged from 200 to 400 cubic feet per ton (cf/ton) of coal. The methane estimte in this basin is between 1.6 to 3.6 trillion cubic feet. The Piceance Creek coal region is an area presently generating considerable interest and industry activity. The methane content of the coal samples extracted from this basin averaged over 100 cf/ton. The Northern Appalachian region also shows considerable promise.

  11. Preliminary report on the ecological assessment of Waste Area Grouping 5 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect

    Ashwood, T.L.; Suter, G.W. II; Stewart, A.J.

    1992-09-01

    In support of the remedial investigation for Waste Area Grouping (WAG) 5, staff of the Environmental Sciences Division of Oak Ridge National Laboratory have conducted preliminary ecological assessment activities. A screening level ecological risk assessment has been completed, ambient toxicity tests have been conducted on streams and seeps within WAG 5, WAG 5 has been surveyed for rare and endangered species and wetlands, and wild turkeys that may feed on contaminated vegetation and insects in WAG 5 have been screened for beta-emitting isotopes and [sup 137]Cs. The screening-level ecological risk assessment identified some data gaps that were addressed in the ecological assessment plan. These include gaps in data on the toxicity of surface water and soil within WAG 5 and on the status of rare and endangered species. In addition, the screening-level risk assessment identified the need for data on the level of contaminants in wild turkeys that may be consumed by predatory wildlife and humans. Three rounds of ambient toxicity tests on six streams and seeps, using the microcrustacean Ceriodaphnia, have identified potential toxicity in three of the sample sites. Further tests are required to identify the toxicant. No rare or endangered animal species have been identified in the WAG 5 area.

  12. NEUROBEHAVIORAL TESTING IN HUMAN RISK ASSESSMENT

    PubMed Central

    Rohlman, Diane S.; Lucchini, Roberto; Anger, W. Kent; Bellinger, David C.; van Thriel, Christoph

    2008-01-01

    Neurobehavioral tests are being increasingly used in human risk assessment and there is a strong need for guidance. The field of neurobehavioral toxicology has evolved from research which initially focused on using traditional neuropsychological tests to identify “abnormal cases” to include methods used to detect sub-clinical deficits, to further incorporate the use of neurosensory assessment, and to expand testing from occupational populations to vulnerable populations including older adults and children. Even as exposures in the workplace are reduced, they have been increasing in the environment and research on exposure has now expanded to cross the entire lifetime. These neurobehavioral methods are applied in research and the findings used for regulatory purposes to develop preventative action for exposed populations. This paper reflects a summary of the talks presented at the symposium presented at the 11th meeting of the International Neurotoxicology Association. PMID:18539229

  13. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    PubMed

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  14. Health assessment for Monsanto Corporation, Augusta, Georgia, Region 4. CERCLIS No. GAD001700699. Preliminary report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-01-19

    The Monsanto Corporation 75-acre site is located in Augusta (Richmond County), Georgia. Preliminary on-site groundwater sampling results (the most recent occurring in 1986) identified arsenic, the only contaminant reported. Based on available information, the site is considered to be of potential public health concern because of the risk to human health caused by the possibility of human exposure to hazardous substances.

  15. Simplified probabilistic risk assessment in fuel reprocessing

    SciTech Connect

    Solbrig, C.W.

    1993-03-01

    An evaluation was made to determine if a backup mass tracking computer would significantly reduce the probability of criticality in the fuel reprocessing of the Integral Fast Reactor. Often tradeoff studies, such as this, must be made that would greatly benefit from a Probably Risk Assessment (PRA). The major benefits of a complete PRA can often be accrued with a Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA). An SPRA was performed by selecting a representative fuel reprocessing operation (moving a piece of fuel) for analysis. It showed that the benefit of adding parallel computers was small compared to the benefit which could be obtained by adding parallelism to two computer input steps and two of the weighing operations. The probability of an incorrect material moves with the basic process is estimated to be 4 out of 100 moves. The actual values of the probability numbers are considered accurate to within an order of magnitude. The most useful result of developing the fault trees accrue from the ability to determine where significant improvements in the process can be made. By including the above mentioned parallelism, the error move rate can be reduced to 1 out of 1000.

  16. Simplified probabilistic risk assessment in fuel reprocessing

    SciTech Connect

    Solbrig, C.W.

    1993-01-01

    An evaluation was made to determine if a backup mass tracking computer would significantly reduce the probability of criticality in the fuel reprocessing of the Integral Fast Reactor. Often tradeoff studies, such as this, must be made that would greatly benefit from a Probably Risk Assessment (PRA). The major benefits of a complete PRA can often be accrued with a Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA). An SPRA was performed by selecting a representative fuel reprocessing operation (moving a piece of fuel) for analysis. It showed that the benefit of adding parallel computers was small compared to the benefit which could be obtained by adding parallelism to two computer input steps and two of the weighing operations. The probability of an incorrect material moves with the basic process is estimated to be 4 out of 100 moves. The actual values of the probability numbers are considered accurate to within an order of magnitude. The most useful result of developing the fault trees accrue from the ability to determine where significant improvements in the process can be made. By including the above mentioned parallelism, the error move rate can be reduced to 1 out of 1000.

  17. The new tapestry of risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Weiss, Bernard; Cory-Slechta, Deborah; Gilbert, Steven G.; Mergler, Donna; Miller, Elise; Miller, Claudia; Newland, M. Christopher; Rice, Deborah; Schettler, Ted

    2008-01-01

    Neurotoxicology is entering a new phase in how it views and practices risk assessment. Perhaps more than any of the other disciplines that comprise the science of toxicology, it has been compelled to consider a daunting array of factors other than those directly coupled to chemical and dose, and the age and sex of the subject population. In epidemiological investigations, researchers are increasingly cognizant of the problems introduced by allegedly controlling for variables classified as confounders or covariates. In essence, they reason, the consequence is blurring or even concealing interactions of exposure with modifiers such as the individual’s social ecology. Other researchers question the traditional practice of relying on values such as NOAELs when they are abstracted from a biological entity that in reality represents a multiplicity of intertwined systems. Although neurotoxicologists have come to recognize the complexities of assessing risk in all its dimensions, they still face the challenge of communicating this view to the health professions at large. PMID:18501430

  18. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  19. A statistical model for collective risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keef, Caroline; Tawn, Jonathan A.; Lamb, Rob

    2010-05-01

    In this paper we present the theoretical basis of a statistical method that can be used as the basis of a collective risk assessment for country (or continent)-wide events. Our method is based on the conditional dependence model of Heffernan and Tawn (2004), which has been extended to handle missing data and temporal dependence by Keef et al (2009). This model describes the full joint distribution function of a set of variables and incorporates separate models for the marginal and dependence characteristics of the set using a copula approach. The advantages of this model include; the flexibility in terms of types of dependence modelled; the ability to handle situations where the dependence in the tails of the data is not the same as that in the main body of the data; the ability to handle both temporal and spatial dependence; and the ability to model a large number of variables. In this paper we present further extensions to the statistical model which allow us to simulate country-wide extreme events with the correct spatial and temporal structure and show an application to river flood events. Heffernan J. E. and Tawn J. A. (2004) A conditional approach for multivariate extreme values (with discussion) J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 66 497-546 Keef, C., J. Tawn, and C. Svensson. (2009). Spatial risk assessment for extreme river flows. Applied Statistics 58,(5) pp 601-618

  20. Hydrogen quantitative risk assessment workshop proceedings.

    SciTech Connect

    Groth, Katrina M.; Harris, Aaron P.

    2013-09-01

    The Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) Toolkit Introduction Workshop was held at Energetics on June 11-12. The workshop was co-hosted by Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and HySafe, the International Association for Hydrogen Safety. The objective of the workshop was twofold: (1) Present a hydrogen-specific methodology and toolkit (currently under development) for conducting QRA to support the development of codes and standards and safety assessments of hydrogen-fueled vehicles and fueling stations, and (2) Obtain feedback on the needs of early-stage users (hydrogen as well as potential leveraging for Compressed Natural Gas [CNG], and Liquefied Natural Gas [LNG]) and set priorities for %E2%80%9CVersion 1%E2%80%9D of the toolkit in the context of the commercial evolution of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). The workshop consisted of an introduction and three technical sessions: Risk Informed Development and Approach; CNG/LNG Applications; and Introduction of a Hydrogen Specific QRA Toolkit.

  1. Cyanide analyses for risk and treatability assessments

    SciTech Connect

    MacFarlane, I.D.; Elseroad, H.J.; Pergrin, D.E.; Logan, C.M.

    1994-12-31

    Cyanide, an EPA priority pollutant and target analyte, is typically measured as total. However, cyanide complexation, information which is not acquired through total cyanide analysis, is often a driver of cyanide toxicity and treatability. A case study of a former manufacture gas plant (MGP) is used to demonstrate the usability of various cyanide analytical methods for risk and treatability assessments. Several analytical methods, including cyanide amenable to chlorination and weak acid dissociable cyanide help test the degree of cyanide complexation. Generally, free or uncomplexed cyanide is more biologically available, toxic, and reactive than complexed cyanide. Extensive site testing has shown that free and weakly dissociable cyanide composes only a small fraction of total cyanide as would be expected from the literature, and that risk assessment will be more realistic considering cyanide form. Likewise, aqueous treatment for cyanide can be properly tested if cyanide form is accounted for. Weak acid dissociable cyanide analyses proved to be the most reliable (and potentially acceptable) cyanide method, as well as represent the most toxic and reactive cyanide forms.

  2. Physiologically based pharmacokinetics and cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Andersen, M E; Krishnan, K

    1994-01-01

    Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling involves mathematically describing the complex interplay of the critical physicochemical and biological determinants involved in the disposition of chemicals. In this approach, the body is divided into a number of biologically relevant tissue compartments, arranged in an anatomically accurate manner, and defined with appropriate physiological characteristics. The extrapolation of pharmacokinetic behavior of chemicals from high dose to low dose for various exposure routes and species is possible with this approach because these models are developed by integrating quantitative information on the critical determinants of chemical disposition under a biological modeling framework. The principal application of PBPK models is in the prediction of tissue dosimetry of toxic moiety (e.g., parent chemical, reactive metabolite, macromolecular adduct) of a chemical. Such an application has been demonstrated with dichloromethane, a liver and lung carcinogen in the B6C3F1 mouse. The PBPK model-based risk assessment approach estimated a cancer risk to people of 3.7 x 10(-8) for a lifetime inhalation exposure of 1 micrograms/m3, which is lower by more than two orders of magnitude than that calculated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency using the linearized multistage model (for low-dose extrapolation) and body surface correction factor (for interspecies scaling). The capability of predicting the target tissue exposure to toxic moiety in people with PBPK models should help reduce the uncertainty associated with the extrapolation procedures adopted in conventional dose-response assessment. PMID:8187697

  3. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    SciTech Connect

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-08-26

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  4. Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, Scott L.; Gee, Ken; Mathias, Donovan; Olsen, Michael

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

  5. Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment for Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Betul Demircioglu, Mine; Sesetyan, Karin; Erdik, Mustafa

    2010-05-01

    Using a GIS-environment to present the results, seismic risk analysis is considered as a helpful tool to support the decision making for planning and prioritizing seismic retrofit intervention programs at large scale. The main ingredients of seismic risk analysis consist of seismic hazard, regional inventory of buildings and vulnerability analysis. In this study, the assessment of the national earthquake hazard based on the NGA ground motion prediction models and the comparisons of the results with the previous models have been considered, respectively. An evaluation of seismic risk based on the probabilistic intensity ground motion prediction for Turkey has been investigated. According to the Macroseismic approach of Giovinazzi and Lagomarsino (2005), two alternative vulnerability models have been used to estimate building damage. The vulnerability and ductility indices for Turkey have been taken from the study of Giovinazzi (2005). These two vulnerability models have been compared with the observed earthquake damage database. A good agreement between curves has been clearly observed. In additional to the building damage, casualty estimations based on three different methods for each return period and for each vulnerability model have been presented to evaluate the earthquake loss. Using three different models of building replacement costs, the average annual loss (AAL) and probable maximum loss ratio (PMLR) due to regional earthquake hazard have been provided to form a basis for the improvement of the parametric insurance model and the determination of premium rates for the compulsory earthquake insurance in Turkey.

  6. Quality assurance checks on ecological risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Ferson, S.; Ginzburg, L.

    1995-12-31

    Three major criticisms are routinely made against probabilistic ecological risk assessments: (1) input distributions are often not available, (2) correlations and dependencies are often ignored, and (3) mathematical structure of the ecological model is often questionable. These criticisms are well understood by risk analysts, but it is generally assumed that their only solution is additional empirical effort to develop input distributions, measure correlations and validate the model. As a practical matter, since such empirical information is typically incomplete (and indeed often quite sparse), analysts are forced to make assumptions without empirical justifications. There are, however, computational methods that may allow analysts to sidestep a lack of information to partially or completely answer the three criticisms. When empirical information about the input distributions is limited, comprehensive representations of uncertainty can be estimated using traditional confidence interval or bounding procedures. Using recently developed methods, the probability distribution bounds can be used directly in calculations. When the correlation and dependency structure among variables is unknown, bounds on solutions can be computed without having to make unjustified and possibly false assumptions about independence. Finally, automated checks on the ecological model or mathematical expression used in the risk analysis can be employed to ensure the absence of several classes of structural and mathematical errors. Several kinds of profound errors which are routinely committed in practice, including dimensional or unit discordance, infeasible configurations for correlation, and multiple instantiations of a repeated variable, can all be detected using currently available methods and software.

  7. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of disassembly procedures

    SciTech Connect

    O`Brien, D.A.; Bement, T.R.; Letellier, B.C.

    1993-10-01

    Probabilistic Risk (Safety) Assessment (PRA or PSA) is an analytic methodology for identifying the combination of events that, if they occur, lead to accidents. Accidents are defined as those events causing loss or injury to people, property, or the environment. PRA also provides a method for estimating the frequency of occurrence of each combination of events and the consequences of each accident. The Los Alamos effort for this study is summarized as follows: The focus of the Los Alamos study was on evaluating the risks specifically associated with disassembling a Los Alamos-designed device. The PRA for the disassembly operation included a detailed evaluation only for those potential accident sequences which could lead to significant off-site consequences and affect public health. The overall purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of a risk consequence goal for DOE operations. Often called a Level 3 PRA (or PSA), the methods are general and can with a little modification be applied to other procedures or processes.

  8. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  9. Preliminary Benefits Assessment of Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests (TASAR)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Henderson, Jeff; Idris, Husni; Wing, David J.

    2012-01-01

    While en route, aircrews submit trajectory change requests to air traffic control (ATC) to better meet their objectives including reduced delays, reduced fuel burn, and passenger comfort. Aircrew requests are currently made with limited to no information on surrounding traffic. Consequently, these requests are uninformed about a key ATC objective, ensuring traffic separation, and therefore less likely to be accepted than requests informed by surrounding traffic and that avoids creating conflicts. This paper studies the benefits of providing aircrews with on-board decision support to generate optimized trajectory requests that are probed and cleared of known separation violations prior to issuing the request to ATC. These informed requests are referred to as traffic aware strategic aircrew requests (TASAR) and leverage traffic surveillance information available through Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) In capability. Preliminary fast-time simulation results show increased benefits with longer stage lengths since beneficial trajectory changes can be applied over a longer distance. Also, larger benefits were experienced between large hub airports as compared to other airport sizes. On average, an aircraft equipped with TASAR reduced its travel time by about one to four minutes per operation and fuel burn by about 50 to 550 lbs per operation depending on the objective of the aircrew (time, fuel, or weighted combination of time and fuel), class of airspace user, and aircraft type. These preliminary results are based on analysis of approximately one week of traffic in July 2012 and additional analysis is planned on a larger data set to confirm these initial findings.

  10. Preliminary assessment report for Kent National Guard Facility (Installation 53065), 24410 Military Road, Kent, Washington

    SciTech Connect

    Ketels, P.; Aggarwal, P.; Rose, C.M.

    1993-08-01

    This report presents the results of the preliminary assessment (PA) conducted by Argonne National Laboratory at the Washington Army National Guard property in Kent, Washington. Preliminary assessments of federal facilities are being conducted to compile the information necessary for completing preremedial activities and to provide a basis for establishing corrective actions in response to releases of hazardous substances. The principal objective of the PA is to characterize the site accurately and determine the need for further action by examining site activities, quantities of hazardous substances present, and potential pathways by which contamination could affect public health and the environment.

  11. 44 CFR 206.33 - Preliminary damage assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... requesting this support. (b) Damage assessment teams. Damage assessment teams will be composed of at least... possible. Other State and Federal agencies, and voluntary relief organizations may also be asked to... official will brief team members on damage criteria, the kind of information to be collected for...

  12. Preliminary Design and Fabrication Assessment for Two Solar Sail Candidates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weis, R.

    1977-01-01

    Primary emphasis is directed to the spinning sail design and fabrication assessment. Several methods of fabricating the spinning sail blades are presented and compared. Evaluations are made of each proposed design, as well as the baseline design. These efforts resulted in the recommendation of an apparent optimum design and fabrication plan with an assessment of the major advantages/disadvantages of each concept considered.

  13. Various Assessments Utilized in California Preliminary Administrative Services Preparation Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Erickson, Deborah E.

    2016-01-01

    Every two years, institutions sponsoring credentialing programs in California are required to submit a detailed biennial report, which includes data on at least four key assessments showing 1) candidate competence and/or 2) program efficacy. This article reports the types of assessments used from 25 institutions that completed biennial reports for…

  14. U.S. EPA Superfund Program's Policy for Risk and Dose Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Walker, Stuart

    2008-01-15

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Superfund Remediation and Technology Innovation (OSRTI) has primary responsibility for implementing the long-term (non-emergency) portion of a key U.S. law regulating cleanup: the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act, CERCLA, nicknamed 'Superfund'. The purpose of the Superfund program is to protect human health and the environment over the long term from releases or potential releases of hazardous substances from abandoned or uncontrolled hazardous waste sites. The focus of this paper is on risk and dose assessment policies and tools for addressing radioactively contaminated sites by the Superfund program. EPA has almost completed two risk assessment tools that are particularly relevant to decommissioning activities conducted under CERCLA authority. These are the: 1. Building Preliminary Remediation Goals for Radionuclides (BPRG) electronic calculator, and 2. Radionuclide Outdoor Surfaces Preliminary Remediation Goals (SPRG) electronic calculator. EPA developed the BPRG calculator to help standardize the evaluation and cleanup of radiologically contaminated buildings at which risk is being assessed for occupancy. BPRGs are radionuclide concentrations in dust, air and building materials that correspond to a specified level of human cancer risk. The intent of SPRG calculator is to address hard outside surfaces such as building slabs, outside building walls, sidewalks and roads. SPRGs are radionuclide concentrations in dust and hard outside surface materials. EPA is also developing the 'Radionuclide Ecological Benchmark' calculator. This calculator provides biota concentration guides (BCGs), also known as ecological screening benchmarks, for use in ecological risk assessments at CERCLA sites. This calculator is intended to develop ecological benchmarks as part of the EPA guidance 'Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund: Process for Designing and Conducting Ecological Risk

  15. 78 FR 36787 - Rechanneling the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia Risk Assessment During Drug...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-06-19

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Rechanneling the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia... the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia Risk Assessment During Drug Development Without...

  16. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  17. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.; McKenna, S. A.; Hadgu, T.; Kalinina, E.

    2011-12-01

    This study uses a quantitative risk-assessment approach to place the uncertainty associated with enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) development into meaningful context and to identify points of attack that can reduce risk the most. Using the integrated geothermal assessment tool, GT-Mod, we calculate the complimentary cumulative distribution function of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) that results from uncertainty in a variety of geologic and economic input parameter values. EGS is a developing technology that taps deep (2-10km) geologic heat sources for energy production by "enhancing" non-permeable hot rock through hydraulic stimulation. Despite the promise of EGS, uncertainties in predicting the physical end economic performance of a site has hindered its development. To address this, we apply a quantitative risk-assessment approach that calculates risk as the sum of the consequence, C, multiplied by the range of the probability, ΔP, over all estimations of a given exceedance probability, n, over time, t. The consequence here is defined as the deviation from the best estimate LCOE, which is calculated using the 'best-guess' input parameter values. The analysis assumes a realistic but fictitious EGS site with uncertainties in the exploration success rate, the sub-surface thermal gradient, the reservoir fracture pattern, and the power plant performance. Uncertainty in the exploration, construction, O&M, and drilling costs are also included. The depth to the resource is calculated from the thermal gradient and a target resource temperature of 225 °C. Thermal performance is simulated using the Gringarten analytical solution. The mass flow rate is set to produce 30 MWe of power for the given conditions and is adjusted over time to maintain that rate over the plant lifetime of 30 years. Simulations are conducted using GT-Mod, which dynamically links the physical systems of a geothermal site to simulate, as an integrated, multi-system component, the

  18. Music therapy assessment in school settings: a preliminary investigation.

    PubMed

    Wilson, B L; Smith, D S

    2000-01-01

    The present investigation was undertaken in response to music therapists working in school settings for information relating to the availability of music therapy assessments and the feasibility of standardizing an assessment instrument for music therapists to use in school settings. Five research questions were identified, and the music therapy literature was surveyed to compile responses to those questions. Three different online data bases (ERIC, PsycINFO, and Article 1st) were used, covering articles published between 1980 and 1997. Individual hand searches were done of the Arts in Psychotherapy, Journal of Music Therapy, Journal of Research in Music Education, Journal of the International Association of Music for the Handicapped, Music Therapy and Music Therapy Perspectives. The questions and responses were as follows: 1. Which music-based assessment tools are being used with children with disabilities? Little commonality in assessment tools being used by music therapists and researchers was discovered. Of the total 41 studies, 20 (49%) reported using a "named" or "titled" assessment tool, and in the remaining 51% of studies, the authors reported using an untitled, and usually experimenter-designed, original assessment tool. 2. Have certain assessments been used in more than one study? Very limited replication of existing assessments was found. Of the 16 "named" assessments, only 3 were found to be used in more than one research study. 3. Are the actual assessments published along with the articles describing their use? Only 3 of the 20 studies using named assessments were published along with the journal article. Of the remaining 21 studies using original, experimenter-designed assessment tools, only 6 (28%) had the assessment instrument published with the article. 4. What is the primary purpose for using the assessment? Six primary purposes emerged from the review of the literature: to compare with data obtained from other assessment measures or from other

  19. Risk-Assessment for Equipment Operating on the Lunar Surface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richmond, R. C.; Kusiak, A.; Ramachandran, N.

    2008-01-01

    Particle-size distribution of lunar dust simulant is evaluated using scanning electron spectroscopy in order to consider approaches to evaluating risk to individual mechanical components operating on the lunar surface. Assessing component risk and risk-mitigation during actual operations will require noninvasive continuous data gathering on numerous parameters. Those data sets would best be evaluated using data-mining algorithms to assess risk, and recovery from risk, of individual mechanical components in real-time.

  20. Risk assessment for loader- and dozer-related fatal incidents in U.S. mining.

    PubMed

    Md-Nor, Zainalabidin; Kecojevic, Vladislav; Komljenovic, Dragan; Groves, William

    2008-06-01

    The paper presents the results of research aimed at developing a risk assessment process that can be used to more thoroughly characterise risks associated with loader- and dozer-related fatal incidents in US mining. The assessment is based on historical data obtained from the US Mine Safety and Health Administration investigation reports, which includes 77 fatal incidents that occurred from 1995 to 2006. The Preliminary Hazard Assessment method is used in identifying and quantifying risks. Risk levels are then developed using a pre-established risk matrix that ranks them according to probability and severity. The resulting assigned risk value can then be used to prioritise risk control strategies. A total of 10 hazards were identified for loaders. The hazards 'failure to follow adequate maintenance procedure' and 'failure of mechanical/electrical/hydraulic components' were the most severe and frequent hazards and they fell into the category of 'high' risk. The same number of hazards was identified for dozers. The hazard 'failure to identify adverse site/geological conditions' was the most severe and frequent hazard and it fell into the category of 'high' risk. PMID:18642163

  1. L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

  2. Assessment of Nano Cellulose from Peach Palm Residue as Potential Food Additive: Part II: Preliminary Studies.

    PubMed

    Andrade, Dayanne Regina Mendes; Mendonça, Márcia Helena; Helm, Cristiane Vieira; Magalhães, Washington L E; de Muniz, Graciela Ines Bonzon; Kestur, Satyanarayana G

    2015-09-01

    High consumption of dietary fibers in the diet is related to the reduction of the risk of non-transmitting of chronic diseases, prevention of the constipation etc. Rich diets in dietary fibers promote beneficial effects for the metabolism. Considering the above and recognizing the multifaceted advantages of nano materials, there have been many attempts in recent times to use the nano materials in the food sector including as food additive. However, whenever new product for human and animal consumption is developed, it has to be tested for their effectiveness regarding improvement in the health of consumers, safety aspects and side effects. However, before it is tried with human beings, normally such materials would be assessed through biological tests on a living organism to understand its effect on health condition of the consumer. Accordingly, based on the authors' finding reported in a previous paper, this paper presents body weight, biochemical (glucose, cholesterol and lipid profile in blood, analysis of feces) and histological tests carried out with biomass based cellulose nano fibrils prepared by the authors for its possible use as food additive. Preliminary results of the study with mice have clearly brought out potential of these fibers for the said purpose. PMID:26344977

  3. Relative risk analysis of the use of radiation-emitting medical devices: A preliminary application

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, E.D.

    1996-06-01

    This report describes the development of a risk analysis approach for evaluating the use of radiation-emitting medial devices. This effort was performed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The assessment approach has bee applied to understand the risks in using the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis for developing regulations and quality assurance requirements in the use of nuclear medical devices. The risk approach identifies and assesses the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance for the medical system. The approach uses expert screening techniques and relative risk profiling to incorporate the type, quality, and quantity of data available and to present results in an easily understood form.

  4. IRIS Toxicological Review of Diisobutyl Phthalate (Dibp) (Preliminary Assessment Materials)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In September 2014, EPA released the draft literature searches and associated search strategies, evidence tables, and exposure response arrays for DIBP to obtain input from stakeholders and the public prior to developing the draft IRIS assessment. Specifically, EPA was interested ...

  5. Preliminary Non-Fuel Mineral Resource Assessment of Afghanistan 2007

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peters, Stephen G.; Ludington, Stephen; Orris, Greta J.; Sutphin, David M.; Bliss, James D.; Rytuba, James J.

    2007-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) cooperated with the Afghanistan Geological Survey (AGS) of the Afghanistan Ministry of Mines to assess the undiscovered non-fuel mineral resources of Afghanistan between 2006 and 2007. This report presents the results of this work and contains chapters describing and assessing the mineral resources of Afghanistan. An accompanying Geographical Information System (GIS) is an accompanying disk that includes supporting data. Funding for this effort was provided by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).

  6. Ecological risk assessment of contaminated soil.

    PubMed

    Jensen, John; Pedersen, Marianne Bruus

    2006-01-01

    This review has described three cases of ecological risk assessment. The cases include two heavy metals (Cu and Zn) and an anthropogenic organic chemical (DDT). It concludes that there are at least two major constraints hampering the use of laboratory tests to predict effects under natural field conditions. One key issue is bioavailability, and another is suboptimal conditions or multiple stresses in the field such as climatic stress (drought, frost), predators, competition, or food shortage. On the basis of the presented case studies, it was possible to answer three essential questions often raised in connection to ecological risk assessment of contaminated sites. 1. To what extend does soil screening level (SSL) estimate the risk? The SSL are generally derived at levels corresponding to the lowest observed effect levels in laboratory studies, which often is close to the background levels found in many soils. In the cases of zinc and especially DDT, the SSL seemed quite conservative, whereas for copper they resemble the level at which changes in the community structure of soil microarthropods and the plant community have been observed at contaminated sites. The SSL correspond as a whole relatively well with concentrations where no effects or only minor effects were observed in controlled field studies. However, large variation in field surveys can often make it difficult to conclude to what extent the SSL corresponded to no-effect levels in the field. 2. Do bioassays represent a more realistic risk estimate? Here, there is no firm conclusion. The zinc study in UK showed a better relationship between the outcome of ex situ bioassays and field observations than the SSL. The latter overestimated the risk compared to field observations. However, this would be species dependent, as the sensitivity to metals may vary considerably between recognized test species, even within the same group of organisms, such as Folsomia candida and Folsomia fimetaria or Eisenia fetida

  7. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

    SciTech Connect

    Tortorelli, J.P.

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance.

  8. Melanoma susceptibility genes and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Marzuka-Alcalá, Alexander; Gabree, Michele Jacobs; Tsao, Hensin

    2014-01-01

    Familial melanoma accounts for approximately a tenth of all melanoma cases. The most commonly known melanoma susceptibility gene is the highly penetrant CDKN2A (p16INK4a) locus, which is transmitted in an autosomal dominant fashion and accounts for approximately 20-50 % of familial melanoma cases. Mutated p16INK4a shows impaired capacity to inhibit the cyclin D1-CDK4 complex, allowing for unchecked cell cycle progression. Mutations in the second protein coded by CDKN2A, p14ARF, are much less common and result in proteasomal degradation of p53 with subsequent accumulation of DNA damage as the cell progresses through the cell cycle without a functional p53-mediated DNA damage response. Mutations in CDK4 that impair the inhibitory interaction with p16INK4a also increase melanoma risk but these mutations are extremely rare. Genes of the melanin biosynthetic pathway, including MC1R and MITF, have also been implicated in melanomagenesis. MC1R variants were traditionally thought to increase risk for melanoma secondary to intensified UV-mediated DNA damage in the setting of absent photoprotective eumelanin. Accumulation of pheomelanin, which appears to have a carcinogenic effect regardless of UV exposure, may be a more likely mechanism. Impaired SUMOylation of the E318K variant of MITF results in increased transcription of genes that confer melanocytes with a pro-malignant phenotype. Mutations in the tumor suppressor BAP1 enhance the metastatic potential of uveal melanoma and predispose to cutaneous/ocular melanoma, atypical melanocytic tumors, and other internal malignancies (COMMON syndrome). Genome-wide association studies have identified numerous low-risk alleles. Although several melanoma susceptibility genes have been identified, risk assessment tools have been developed only for the most common gene implicated with hereditary melanoma, CDKN2A. MelaPRO, a validated model that relies on Mendelian inheritance and Bayesian probability theories, estimates carrier

  9. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-01

    Measurements of radon gas (222Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the 226Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m-3 to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m-3, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m-3 to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m-3, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m-3 to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m-3, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m-3 to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m-3 and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m-3 to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m-3, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m-3, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m-3, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m-3 and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m-3, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the action level for radon gas of 148 Bq m-3 proposed by EPA except monazite 0.15 kg, struverite 0.15 kg and 0.25 kg. Whereas

  10. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    SciTech Connect

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-27

    Measurements of radon gas ({sup 222}Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the {sup 226}Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m{sup −3} to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m{sup −3} to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m{sup −3}, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m{sup −3} to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m{sup −3}, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m{sup −3} to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m{sup −3} and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m{sup −3} to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m{sup −3}, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m{sup −3} and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the

  11. Risk assessment of malicious biocontamination of food.

    PubMed

    Elad, Daniel

    2005-06-01

    Throughout the last decades of the 20th century, the biological threat evolved from primarily a government-controlled weapon to a tool of terrorism. One of the consequences of this trend is the near impossibility of foreseeing when and how an act of bioterrorism will occur. The suitability of food products for such an act stems from the multitude of microorganisms that may be used for contamination and the vulnerability of the products during and after processing. Tests that would enable the detection of a large variety of microorganisms quickly, reliably, and economically should also provide satisfactory means to prevent acts of malicious biocontamination of food products. Until such means become available, a priority-based approach to the problem is probably the most practical. Priorities should be determined based on a systematic risk assessment to define the relative likelihood of a certain microorganism being used in an act of malicious food contamination. Criteria to be evaluated are availability, weaponization processes, delivery of an effective dose, probability of early detection, and the microorganism's resistance to the conditions to which it will be exposed. Because the results of such an assessment may vary according to prevailing conditions, the assessment must be based on the existing circumstances. The results of the assessment should then be applied to the various procedures of food processing, which should further reduce the number of potential microbial threats. Existing methods of screening food for contaminating microorganisms and existing food safety and security procedures such as hazard analysis and critical control point programs may have to be modified to become suitable for the detection of acts of bioterrorism.

  12. Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sergio C.; Zezere, Jose L.

    2015-04-01

    Exposed Population is a major topic that needs to be taken into account in a full landslide risk analysis. Usually, risk analysis is based on an accounting of inhabitants number or inhabitants density, applied over statistical or administrative terrain units, such as NUTS or parishes. However, this kind of approach may skew the obtained results underestimating the importance of population, mainly in territorial units with predominance of rural occupation. Furthermore, the landslide susceptibility scores calculated for each terrain unit are frequently more detailed and accurate than the location of the exposed population inside each territorial unit based on Census data. These drawbacks are not the ideal setting when landslide risk analysis is performed for urban management and emergency planning. Dasymetric cartography, which uses a parameter or set of parameters to restrict the spatial distribution of a particular phenomenon, is a methodology that may help to enhance the resolution of Census data and therefore to give a more realistic representation of the population distribution. Therefore, this work aims to map and to compare the population distribution based on a traditional approach (population per administrative terrain units) and based on dasymetric cartography (population by building). The study is developed in the Region North of Lisbon using 2011 population data and following three main steps: i) the landslide susceptibility assessment based on statistical models independently validated; ii) the evaluation of population distribution (absolute and density) for different administrative territorial units (Parishes and BGRI - the basic statistical unit in the Portuguese Census); and iii) the dasymetric population's cartography based on building areal weighting. Preliminary results show that in sparsely populated administrative units, population density differs more than two times depending on the application of the traditional approach or the dasymetric

  13. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    SciTech Connect

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  14. Mechanical system reliability and risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cruse, T. A.; Mahadevan, S.; Huang, Q.; Mehta, S.

    1994-11-01

    A new methodology is reported for the prediction of the reliability of mechanical structures subject to multiple failure modes, including noncritical damage. The reduction of system reliability due to accumulated damage is quantitatively estimated by updating the critical system failure states at each level of damage. Correlated design variables are automatically accounted for in the system reliability calculations. Second-order reliability bounds are reported which are unbiased to the ordering of the events. A system risk assessment methodology is also reported that accounts for the cost of multiple types of failure modes and includes the effect of inspection success on reducing the consequences of system failure. Application of the new technology is illustrated for a simplified system model of an aeropropulsion rotor system. However, the methodology is general and is applicable to any engineering system.

  15. System Analysis and Risk Assessment System.

    2000-11-20

    Version 00 SARA4.16 is a program that allows the user to review the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and to perform limited sensitivity analysis on these results. This tool is intended to be used by a less technical oriented user and does not require the level of understanding of PRA concepts required by a full PRA analysis tool. With this program a user can review the information generated by a PRA analyst andmore » compare the results to those generated by making limited modifications to the data in the PRA. Also included in this program is the ability to graphically display the information stored in the database. This information includes event trees, fault trees, P&IDs and uncertainty distributions. SARA 4.16 is incorporated in the SAPHIRE 5.0 code package.« less

  16. United States Environmental Protection Agency: Use of risk assessment and risk management methodologies. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Lamuro, R.J.

    1992-09-30

    Make a full investigation of the policy implications and appropriate uses of risk assessment and risk management in regulatory programs under various Federal laws to prevent cancer and other chronic health effects which may result from exposure to hazardous substances. This is the primary mission of the Risk Assessment and Management Commission (Risk Commission). The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA), created the Risk Commission reflecting Congress' concern over agency use of risk assessment and risk management techniques and methodologies to implement federal laws protective of human health. The Risk Commission is to consider: methods for measuring and describing risks of chronic health effects from hazardous substances; methods to reflect uncertainties associated with estimation techniques, and whether it is possible or desirable to develop a consistent risk assessment methodology or a consistent standard of acceptable risk for various federal programs.

  17. Some issues in risk assessment for agricultural chemicals.

    PubMed

    Rodricks, J V; Rachman, N J

    1990-01-01

    Risk assessment is now a significant feature of most environmental risk management programs, in both industry and government. The purpose of this paper is to describe the elements of risk assessment, their strengths and limitations, and their relationship to other activities, including research and risk management. Risk assessment issues to be examined are those especially important to the agricultural community, including problems of high-risk subpopulations, exposure through unauthorized pathways (e.g., those resulting from groundwater contamination or pesticide misuse), and inadequacies in toxicity and residue data bases.

  18. Assessing calibration of multinomial risk prediction models.

    PubMed

    Van Hoorde, Kirsten; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Timmerman, Dirk; Van Huffel, Sabine; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Van Calster, Ben

    2014-07-10

    Calibration, that is, whether observed outcomes agree with predicted risks, is important when evaluating risk prediction models. For dichotomous outcomes, several tools exist to assess different aspects of model calibration, such as calibration-in-the-large, logistic recalibration, and (non-)parametric calibration plots. We aim to extend these tools to prediction models for polytomous outcomes. We focus on models developed using multinomial logistic regression (MLR): outcome Y with k categories is predicted using k - 1 equations comparing each category i (i = 2, … ,k) with reference category 1 using a set of predictors, resulting in k - 1 linear predictors. We propose a multinomial logistic recalibration framework that involves an MLR fit where Y is predicted using the k - 1 linear predictors from the prediction model. A non-parametric alternative may use vector splines for the effects of the linear predictors. The parametric and non-parametric frameworks can be used to generate multinomial calibration plots. Further, the parametric framework can be used for the estimation and statistical testing of calibration intercepts and slopes. Two illustrative case studies are presented, one on the diagnosis of malignancy of ovarian tumors and one on residual mass diagnosis in testicular cancer patients treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy. The risk prediction models were developed on data from 2037 and 544 patients and externally validated on 1107 and 550 patients, respectively. We conclude that calibration tools can be extended to polytomous outcomes. The polytomous calibration plots are particularly informative through the visual summary of the calibration performance.

  19. Evolutionary Consequences for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gochfeld, Michael; Burger, Joanna

    1993-01-01

    Discusses the use of the human health risk assessment model as a basis for developing ecological risk assessment (ERA). For ERA, risk to individuals is less important than the survival of the population, with the exception of endangered species. Suggests that ERA take into account the relative reproductive value of the potentially impacted…

  20. Debris Flow Risk Management Framework and Risk Analysis in Taiwan, A Preliminary Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsao, Ting-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Ko; Chiou, Lin-Bin; Cheng, Chin-Tung; Lo, Wen-Chun; Chen, Chen-Yu; Lai, Cheng-Nong; Ju, Jiun-Ping

    2010-05-01

    Taiwan is located on a seismically active mountain belt between the Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. After 1999's Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6), landslide and debris flow occurred frequently. In Aug. 2009, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan and numerous landslides and debris flow events, some with tremendous fatalities, were observed. With limited resources, authorities should establish a disaster management system to cope with slope disaster risks more effectively. Since 2006, Taiwan's authority in charge of debris flow management, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), completed the basic investigation and data collection of 1,503 potential debris flow creeks around Taiwan. During 2008 and 2009, a debris flow quantitative risk analysis (QRA) framework, based on landslide risk management framework of Australia, was proposed and conducted on 106 creeks of the 30 villages with debris flow hazard history. Information and value of several types of elements at risk (bridge, road, building and crop) were gathered and integrated into a GIS layer, with the vulnerability model of each elements at risk applied. Through studying the historical hazard events of the 30 villages, numerical simulations of debris flow hazards with different magnitudes (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years return period) were conducted, the economic losses and fatalities of each scenario were calculated for each creek. When taking annual exceeding probability into account, the annual total risk of each creek was calculated, and the results displayed on a debris flow risk map. The number of fatalities and frequency were calculated, and the F-N curves of 106 creeks were provided. For F-N curves, the individual risk to life per year of 1.0E-04 and slope of 1, which matched with international standards, were considered to be an acceptable risk. Applying the results of the 106 creeks onto the F-N curve, they were divided into 3 categories: Unacceptable, ALARP (As Low As Reasonable Practicable) and

  1. Youth attitudes towards tobacco control: a preliminary assessment.

    PubMed

    Waller, Bronwen J; Cohen, Joanna E; Ashley, Mary Jane

    2004-01-01

    The attitudes of Ontario youth toward the sale and price of cigarettes, making smoking against the law, and tobacco company truthfulness were assessed in 2001 and compared to adult attitudes in 2000 and youth attitudes in 2003. Youth were more supportive of restricting cigarette sales and raising prices than adults, and more likely to agree that the government should make smoking against the law, but they were less distrustful of tobacco companies. In 2003, youth were more supportive of sales restrictions and making smoking illegal, and more distrustful of tobacco companies, than in 2001. More comprehensive assessments and continued monitoring of youth attitudes are needed. PMID:15841850

  2. Barriers to household investment in residential energy conservation: preliminary assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffman, W.L.

    1982-12-01

    A general assessment of the range of barriers which impede household investments in weatherization and other energy efficiency improvements for their homes is provided. The relationship of similar factors to households' interest in receiving a free energy audits examined. Rates of return that underly household investments in major conservation improvements are assessed. A special analysis of household knowledge of economically attractive investments is provided that compares high payback improvements specified by the energy audit with the list of needed or desirable conservation improvements identified by respondents. (LEW)

  3. Some Nigerian Anti-Tuberculosis Ethnomedicines: A Preliminary Efficacy Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Ibekwe, Nneka N.; Nvau, John B.; Oladosu, Peters O.; Usman, Auwal M.; Ibrahim, Kolo; Boshoff, Helena I.; Dowd, Cynthia S.; Orisadipe, Abayomi T.; Aiyelaagbe, Olapeju; Adesomoju, Akinbo A.; Barry, Clifton E.; Okogun, Joseph I.

    2014-01-01

    Ethnopharmacological significance Nigerian herbalists possess indigenous ethnomedicinal recipes for the management of tuberculosis and related ailments. Aim of the study To carry out a collaborative preliminary modern scientific evaluation of the efficacy of some Nigerian ethnomedicines used by traditional medicine practitioners (TMPs) in the management of tuberculosis and related ailments Materials and methods Ethnomedicinal recipes (ETMs) were collected from TMPs from locations in various ecological zones of Nigeria under a collaborative understanding. The aqueous methanolic extracts of the ETMs were screened against Mycobacterium bovis, BCG and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb.) strain H37Rv using the broth microdilution method. Results Extracts of ETMs screened against BCG showed 69% activity against the organism. The activities varied from weak, ≤ 2500μg /mL to highly active, 33μg /mL 64% of the extracts were active against M. tb. The activities of the extracts against M.tb. varied from weak, ≤ 2500μg /mL to highly active, 128μg/mL. There was 77% agreement in results obtained using BCG or M. tb. as test organisms Conclusion The results show clear evidence for the efficacy of the majority of indigenous Nigerian herbal recipes in the ethnomedicinal management of tuberculosis and related ailments. BCG may be effectively used, to a great extent, as the organism for screening for potential anti-M. tb. agents. A set of prioritization criteria for the selection of plants for initial further studies for the purpose of antituberculsis drug discovery research is proposed. PMID:24911338

  4. 76 FR 63628 - Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR)

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-10-13

    ... Operations Manual (9327.2-PR) AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION: Notice of... comments on the draft Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR... proposed manual is not a rulemaking and the Federal Rulemaking Portal is being utilized only as a...

  5. South San Francisco Bay 2004 topographic lidar survey: Data overview and preliminary quality assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Foxgrover, Amy C.; Jaffe, Bruce E.

    2005-01-01

    This report details the collection of lidar in South Bay, the ground-truthing efforts, preliminary accuracy assessments, and known limitations of the data set. We describe the data generated from the survey and how to obtain it. In addition, we present maps and sample imagery that provides a revealing look into the intricate topographic features of South Bay.

  6. The risk assessment of environmental and human hazards

    SciTech Connect

    Paustenbach, D.J.

    1988-01-01

    A complete handbook for conducting risk assessments for environmental and occupational health hazards. This casebook, the first of its kind, presents 22 case studies, including many of the most important and thorough risk assessments ever conducted. Describes state-of-the-art approaches to assessing the low-dose response, estimating exposure, and evaluating the risks to birds and fish. Serves as a how-to-text, as well as a reference for developing high-quality environmental and human health risk assessments. Covers diverse hazards, such as waste sites; contaminated air, soil, and water; consumer products; and indoor air. All assessments are fully documented and referenced.

  7. PRELIMINARY EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT FINDINGS FROM THE TAMPA ASTHMATIC CHILDREN'S STUDY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Tampa Asthmatic Children's Study (TACS) was a pilot study that focused on developing and evaluating air pollution exposure assessment methods and participant recruiting tools. The four-week study was performed in October and November, 2003. The study involved repeated daily...

  8. IRIS Toxicological Review of Inorganic Arsenic (Preliminary Assessment Materials)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In April 2014, EPA released the draft literature searches and associated search strategies, evidence tables, and exposure response arrays for inorganic arsenic (iAs) to obtain input from stakeholders and the public prior to developing the draft IRIS assessment. Specifically, EPA ...

  9. IRIS Toxicological Review of Hexabromocyclododecane (Hbcd)(Preliminary Assessment Materials)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In March 2014, EPA released the draft literature searches and associated search strategies, evidence tables, and exposure response arrays for HBCD to obtain input from stakeholders and the public prior to developing the draft IRIS assessment. Specifically, EPA was interested in c...

  10. IRIS Toxicological Review of Dibutyl Phthalate (Dbp) (Preliminary Assessment Materials)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In January 2015, EPA released the draft literature searches and associated search strategies, evidence tables, and exposure response arrays for DBP to obtain input from stakeholders and the public prior to developing the draft IRIS assessment. Specifically, EPA was interested in ...

  11. IRIS Toxicological Review of Diisononyl Phthalate (Dinp) (Preliminary Assessment Materials)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In August 2014, EPA released the draft literature searches and associated search strategies, evidence tables, and exposure response arrays for DINP to obtain input from stakeholders and the public prior to developing the draft IRIS assessment. Specifically, EPA was interested in ...

  12. IRIS Toxicological Review of Diethyl Phthalate (DEP) (Preliminary Assessment Materials)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In March 2014, EPA released the draft literature searches and associated search strategies, evidence tables, and exposure response arrays for DEP to obtain input from stakeholders and the public prior to developing the draft IRIS assessment. Specifically, EPA was interested in co...

  13. Preliminary Assessment of Potential Avian Interactions at Four Proposed Wind Energy Facilities on Vandenberg Air Force Base, California

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2004-08-01

    The United States Air Force (USAF) is investigating whether to install wind turbines to provide a supplemental source of electricity at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) near Lompoc, California. As part of that investigation, VAFB sought assistance from the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to provide a preliminary characterization of the potential risk to wildlife resources (mainly birds and bats) from wind turbine installations. With wind power development expanding throughout North America and Europe, concerns have surfaced over the number of bird fatalities associated with wind turbines. Guidelines developed for the wind industry by the National Wind Coordinating Committee (NWCC) recommend assessing potential impacts to birds, bats, and other potentially sensitive resources before construction. The primary purpose of an assessment is to identify potential conflicts with sensitive resources, to assist developers with identifying their permitting needs, and to develop strategies to avoid impacts or to mitigate their effects. This report provides a preliminary (Phase I) biological assessment of potential impacts to birds and bats that might result from construction and operation of the proposed wind energy facilities on VAFB.

  14. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    2011-03-01

    contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

  15. Health Risk Assessment of Irradiated Topaz

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, Kevin Lyle

    1991-06-01

    Radiation-produced blue topaz, indistinguishable from natural blue topaz, is produced by several different techniques. Published information on radionuclides present, activity levels, equipment necessary to detect activated nuclides and dosimetric assessment is lacking. Using a 60 megawatt nuclear reactor, fifty-one samples of colorless topaz from Nigeria, Sri Lanka, India and Brazil were irradiated with thermal and fast neutron fluences ranging from 1.8 times 10 13 to 9.2 times 1018 neutrons cm^{-2}. Seventeen MeV electrons produced by a linear accelerator were also used to irradiate 36 colorless topaz from the same countries. Gamma ray or positron-emitting nuclides were identified using calibrated well-type NaI or germanium detectors. For germanium detectors having relative efficiencies of approximately 20 percent, an analysis time of one hour or more was needed. Geiger Mueller (G-M) detectors, scintillators (plastic and liquid), gas flow proportional counters, a ZnS detector and autoradiography techniques were used to measure charged particle activity. Isotopes produced from neutron activation included 182Ta, ^ {59}Fe, 46Sc, 51Cr, 54Mn, 124Sb, ^{32 }P, 77As, ^ {183}Ta, 77Ge, 72Ga, and ^{24 }Na. Possible nuclides produced from 17 MeV electron treatment include ^{68 }Ga, 64Cu, ^ {49}Cr, and 18F. Positive identification of the electron activated nuclides was not possible because of the short half-lives involved (<1 day). Of the possible pure beta emitters activated during neutron bombardment, 32P and 35S are the most likely to be produced. The identification of 32P was made using a three point beta absorption analysis with a G-M detector. Skin and breast cancer risk estimates were calculated for various sized topaz containing NRC exempt concentration levels. When compared to a negligible individual risk level (NIRL) of 10^{-7}, the risk of an irradiated topaz in contact with the skin or three inches from breast tissue was a small fraction of the NIRL. At a risk

  16. Seismic Hazard Assessment of Middle East Region: Based on the Example to Georgia (Preliminary results)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsereteli, N. S.; Akkar, S.; Askan, A.; Varazanashvili, O.; Adamia, S.; Chkhitunidze, M.

    2012-12-01

    The country of Georgia is located between Russia and Turkey. The main morphological units of Georgia are the mountain ranges of the Greater and Lesser Caucasus separated by the Black Sea-Rioni and Kura (Mtkvari)-South Caspian intermountain troughs. Recent geodynamics of Georgia and adjacent territories of the Black Sea-Caspian Sea region, as a whole, are determined by its position between the still-converging Eurasian and Africa-Arabian plates. That caused moderate seismicity in the region. However, the risk resulting from these earthquakes is considerably high, as recent events during the last two decades have shown. Seismic hazard and risk assessment is a major research topic in various recent international and national projects. Despite the current efforts, estimation of regional seismic hazard assessment remains as a major problem. Georgia is one of the partners of ongoing regional project EMME (Earthquake Model for Middle East region). The main objective of EMME is calculation of Earthquake hazard uniformly with heights standards. One approach used in the project is the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment PSHA. In this study, we present the preliminary results of PSHA for Georgia in this project attempting to improve gaps especially in such steps as: determination of seismic sources; selection or derivation of ground motion prediction equations models; estimation of maximum magnitude Mmax. Seismic sources (SS) were obtained on the bases of structural geology, parameters of seismicity and seismotectonics. Finely new SS have been developed for Georgia and adjacent region. Each zone was defined with the following parameters: the magnitude-frequency parameters, maximum magnitude, and depth distribution as well as modern dynamical characteristics widely used for complex processes. As the ground motion dataset is absolutely insufficient by itself to derive a ground motion prediction model for Georgia, two approaches were taken in defining ground motions. First

  17. Preliminary Testing of a Program to Prevent Type 2 Diabetes among High-Risk Youth.(research Papers)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grey, Margaret; Berry, Diane; Davidson, Maryanne; Galasso, Pam; Gustafson, Elaine; Melkus, Gail

    2004-01-01

    Type 2 diabetes is increasing among youth, with minority youth at highest risk. This preliminary study tested the feasibility of a school-based program to prevent type 2 diabetes in youth at risk. Forty-one participants (age 12.6 [+ or -] 1.1 years; 63% female, 51% African American, 44% Hispanic, and 5% Caucasian) were randomly assigned to one of…

  18. The Process of Suicide Risk Assessment: Twelve Core Principles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Granello, Darcy Haag

    2010-01-01

    Suicide risk assessment requires counselors to determine client risk factors, warning signs, and protective factors. The content of suicide assessment has received attention in the literature. The guiding principles of the process of suicide assessment, however, have not yet been articulated. This article contains 12 core process principles that…

  19. Issues in Violent Risk Assessment: Lessons Learned and Future Directions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.

    2005-01-01

    Realizing that the assessment of dangerousness with a yes/no format as a poor form of violent risk assessment has been the most important lesson learned about violence in the last 20 years. Further examining (a) what outcome and (b) how the indicators of the outcome should be measured has resulted in better violent risk assessment. The most…

  20. Data used in preliminary performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (1990)

    SciTech Connect

    Rechard, R.P ); Luzzolino, H. ); Sandha, J.S. )

    1990-12-01

    This report documents the data available as of August 1990 and used by the Performance Assessment Division of Sandia National Laboratories in its December 1990 preliminary performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Parameter values are presented in table form for the geologic subsystem, engineered barriers, borehole flow properties, climate variability, and intrusion characteristics. Sources for the data and a brief discussion of each parameter are provided. 101 refs., 72 figs., 21 tabs.

  1. Preliminary environmental assessment for the satellite power system (SPS). Revision 1. Volume 1. Executive summary

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-01-01

    A preliminary assessment of the environmental impacts of the proposed satellite power system (SPS) is summarized here. In this system, satellites would collect solar energy in space, convert it to microwaves, and transmit the microwaves to receiving antennas (rectennas) on earth. At the rectennas, the microwaves would be converted to electricity. The assessment considers microwave and nonmicrowave effects on the terrestrial environment and human health, atmospheric effects, and disruption of communications and other electromagnetic systems.

  2. Preliminary technology utilization assessment of the robotic fruit harvester

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilhelm, J.

    1982-01-01

    The results of an analysis whose purpose was to examine the history and progress of mechanical fruit harvesting, to determine the significance of a robotic fruit tree harvester and to assess the available market for such a product are summarized. Background information that can be used in determining the benefit of a proof of principle demonstration is provided. Such a demonstration could be a major step toward the transfer of this NASA technology.

  3. Objectifying Facial Expressivity Assessment of Parkinson's Patients: Preliminary Study

    PubMed Central

    Patsis, Georgios; Jiang, Dongmei; Sahli, Hichem; Kerckhofs, Eric; Vandekerckhove, Marie

    2014-01-01

    Patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) can exhibit a reduction of spontaneous facial expression, designated as “facial masking,” a symptom in which facial muscles become rigid. To improve clinical assessment of facial expressivity of PD, this work attempts to quantify the dynamic facial expressivity (facial activity) of PD by automatically recognizing facial action units (AUs) and estimating their intensity. Spontaneous facial expressivity was assessed by comparing 7 PD patients with 8 control participants. To voluntarily produce spontaneous facial expressions that resemble those typically triggered by emotions, six emotions (amusement, sadness, anger, disgust, surprise, and fear) were elicited using movie clips. During the movie clips, physiological signals (facial electromyography (EMG) and electrocardiogram (ECG)) and frontal face video of the participants were recorded. The participants were asked to report on their emotional states throughout the experiment. We first examined the effectiveness of the emotion manipulation by evaluating the participant's self-reports. Disgust-induced emotions were significantly higher than the other emotions. Thus we focused on the analysis of the recorded data during watching disgust movie clips. The proposed facial expressivity assessment approach captured differences in facial expressivity between PD patients and controls. Also differences between PD patients with different progression of Parkinson's disease have been observed. PMID:25478003

  4. Dynamic Attack Tree Tool for Risk Assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Black, Karl

    2012-03-13

    DATT enables interactive visualization, qualitative analysis and recording of cyber and other forms of risk. It facilitates dynamic risk-based approaches (as opposed to static compliance-based) to security and risk management in general. DATT allows decision makers to consistently prioritize risk mitigation strategies and quickly see where attention is most needed across the enterprise.

  5. Population-scale assessment endpoints in ecological risk assessment. Part 1: Reflections of stakeholder values.

    PubMed

    Landis, Wayne G

    2006-01-01

    The selection of appropriate assessment endpoints is a basic element of an ecological risk assessment, especially at regional or watershed scales. Because ecological services often are tied to specific species, the risk to populations is a critical endpoint and feature of ecological risk assessments. The first item is a discussion of the replacement of population-level risk assessment with the construct of a population-scale assessment endpoint. Next, the criteria that are currently used for assessment endpoints are reviewed and evaluated for utility in an ecological risk assessment. Following this examination, assessment endpoints from a number of regional-scale ecological risk assessments are compared. The outcome of this evaluation is that population-scale assessment endpoints are important expressions of the valued components of ecological structures. Finally, a few recommendations for the selection of assessment endpoints at a population scale are listed. PMID:16640323

  6. Falls risk assessment in older patients in hospital.

    PubMed

    Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata

    2016-07-27

    Falls are the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, usually affecting older patients. All hospitals in NHS organisations develop risk prevention policies that include falls risk assessment. Falls risk assessment involves the use of risk screening tools, aimed at identifying patients at increased risk of falls, and risk assessment tools, which identify a patient's risk factors for falls. Various risk screening tools have been used in clinical practice, but no single tool is able to identify all patients at risk of falls or to accurately exclude all those who are not at risk of falls. Guidelines recommend that patients aged 65 years and over who are admitted to hospital should be considered at high risk of falls and that a multifactorial falls risk assessment should be performed. Therefore, falls risk assessment tools should be used to identify the risk factors for each inpatient aged 65 years or over, in order to determine the most appropriate care plan for falls prevention and to maximise patient mobility and independence. PMID:27461329

  7. Statistical problems in the assessment of nuclear risks

    SciTech Connect

    Easterling, R. G.

    1980-01-01

    Information on nuclear power plant risk assessment is presented concerning attitudinal problems; and methodological problems involving expert opinions, human error probabilities, nonindependent events, uncertainty analysis, and acceptable risk criteria.

  8. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment SAS Macro (Gail Model)

    Cancer.gov

    A SAS macro (commonly referred to as the Gail Model) that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

  9. Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Decision Making During Spacecraft Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2009-01-01

    Decisions made during the operational phase of a space mission often have significant and immediate consequences. Without the explicit consideration of the risks involved and their representation in a solid model, it is very likely that these risks are not considered systematically in trade studies. Wrong decisions during the operational phase of a space mission can lead to immediate system failure whereas correct decisions can help recover the system even from faulty conditions. A problem of special interest is the determination of the system fault protection strategies upon the occurrence of faults within the system. Decisions regarding the fault protection strategy also heavily rely on a correct understanding of the state of the system and an integrated risk model that represents the various possible scenarios and their respective likelihoods. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling is applicable to the full lifecycle of a space mission project, from concept development to preliminary design, detailed design, development and operations. The benefits and utilities of the model, however, depend on the phase of the mission for which it is used. This is because of the difference in the key strategic decisions that support each mission phase. The focus of this paper is on describing the particular methods used for PRA modeling during the operational phase of a spacecraft by gleaning insight from recently conducted case studies on two operational Mars orbiters. During operations, the key decisions relate to the commands sent to the spacecraft for any kind of diagnostics, anomaly resolution, trajectory changes, or planning. Often, faults and failures occur in the parts of the spacecraft but are contained or mitigated before they can cause serious damage. The failure behavior of the system during operations provides valuable data for updating and adjusting the related PRA models that are built primarily based on historical failure data. The PRA models, in turn

  10. Preliminary assessment of the controlled release of radionuclides from waste packages containing borosilicate waste glass

    SciTech Connect

    Strachan, D.M.; McGrail, B.P.; Apted, M.J.; Engle, D.W.; Eslinger, P.W.

    1990-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide a preliminary assessment of the release-rate for an engineered barriers subsystem (EBS) containing waste packages of defense high-level waste borosilicate glass at geochemical and hydrological conditions similar to the those at Yucca Mountain. The relationship between the proposed Waste Acceptance Preliminary Specifications (WAPS) test of glass- dissolution rate and compliance with the NRC`s release-rate criterion is also evaluated. Calculations are reported for three hierarchical levels: EBS analysis, waste-package analysis, and waste-glass analysis. The following conclusions identify those factors that most acutely affect the magnitude of, or uncertainty in, release-rate performance.

  11. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  12. Risk information provided to prospective oocyte donors in a preliminary phone call.

    PubMed

    Gurmankin, A D

    2001-01-01

    In order to accommodate for the present shortage of oocyte donors, oocyte-donation programs place ads in college newspapers and provide large monetary compensation to encourage participation. Large compensation acts as a strong incentive for young women to undergo the potentially risky procedure of donation. In this enticing situation, it is particularly important for programs to fully inform prospective donors of the risks of the procedure so that they can accurately weigh the costs and benefits of donating. However, because oocyte-donor programs must alleviate the shortage of donors if they wish to maintain a financially viable business, there is reason to fear that they may minimize or misrepresent risks when recruiting egg donors. In this pilot study, the risk information provided by programs (n=19) to prospective oocyte donors in a preliminary phone call inquiry was investigated. The majority of the programs provided incomplete and/or inaccurate risk information. Policy changes are recommended to reduce the potential for undue influence and to standardize and regulate the risk information provided to prospective egg donors. PMID:11954633

  13. Baseline risk assessment of groundwater contamination at the uranium mill tailings site, near Gunnison, Colorado. Revision 2

    SciTech Connect

    1996-06-01

    This report is the second site-specific risk assessment document prepared for the Ground Water Project at the Gunnison site. A preliminary risk assessment was conducted in 1990 to determine whether long-term use of ground water from private wells near the Gunnison site had the potential for adverse health effects. Due to the results of that preliminary risk assessment, the residents were provided bottled water on an interim basis. In July 1994, the residents and the nearby Valco cement/concrete plant were given the option to connect to anew alternate water supply system, eliminating the bottled water option. This document evaluates current and potential future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site characterization will be used to determine whether more action is needed to protect human health and the environment and to comply with the EPA standards.

  14. Risk assessment and toxicology databases for health effects assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, P.Y.; Wassom, J.S.

    1990-12-31

    Scientific and technological developments bring unprecedented stress to our environment. Society has to predict the results of potential health risks from technologically based actions that may have serious, far-reaching consequences. The potential for error in making such predictions or assessment is great and multiplies with the increasing size and complexity of the problem being studied. Because of this, the availability and use of reliable data is the key to any successful forecasting effort. Scientific research and development generate new data and information. Much of the scientific data being produced daily is stored in computers for subsequent analysis. This situation provides both an invaluable resource and an enormous challenge. With large amounts of government funds being devoted to health and environmental research programs and with maintenance of our living environment at stake, we must make maximum use of the resulting data to forecast and avert catastrophic effects. Along with the readily available. The most efficient means of obtaining the data necessary for assessing the health effects of chemicals is to utilize applications include the toxicology databases and information files developed at ORNL. To make most efficient use of the data/information that has already been prepared, attention and resources should be directed toward projects that meticulously evaluate the available data/information and create specialized peer-reviewed value-added databases. Such projects include the National Library of Medicine`s Hazardous Substances Data Bank, and the U.S. Air Force Installation Restoration Toxicology Guide. These and similar value-added toxicology databases were developed at ORNL and are being maintained and updated. These databases and supporting information files, as well as some data evaluation techniques are discussed in this paper with special focus on how they are used to assess potential health effects of environmental agents. 19 refs., 5 tabs.

  15. Development of a collision risk assessment tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alarcon Rodriguez, J.; Martinez Fadrique, F.; Klinkrad, H.

    The avoidance of near misses and catastrophic collisions is of particular interest to manned missions and to valuable assets at densely populated altitude regions. GMV has developed a software tool for ESOC, ESA's European Space Operations Centre, which forecasts close conjunctions of selected spacecraft with over 8,000 objects included in the USSPACECOM catalog. The Collision Risk Assessment Tool (CRASS) generates collision risk estimates and collision warnings based on collision probability for a time span on the order of one week. In the framework of this activity, several collision probability algorithms have been implemented and tested. Considerable effort has also been placed in the characterisation of orbit determination errors and covariance propagation. The direct comparison of orbits of several spacecraft against a large catalog is an extremely computation intensive task. As a consequence, pre-filtering and parallel computing techniques have been proposed and used in the past as a means to reduce the computing time. However, the "smart sieve" algorithm devised and implemented by GMV retains the reliability of a "direct" method while drastically reducing the computing time. Therefore, the "smart sieve" is far more reliable than traditional pre-filtering techniques with no need for parallel computing. Besides, the method presents no constraints or singularities for any terrestrial orbit, as it is not based on simplifying assumptions. In summary, the method's main characteristics are general applicability, high reliability, and high computing efficiency. As a result of the increased efficiency, the field of application of the tool can be extended to other challenging problems. For instance, all to all comparisons of objects within a large catalog, or comparisons of a single spacecraft against a complete catalog over long periods of time can be completed in a reasonable time.

  16. Risk assessment of nonhazardous oil-field waste disposal in salt caverns.

    SciTech Connect

    Elcock, D.

    1998-03-05

    In 1996, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) conducted a preliminary technical and legal evaluation of disposing of nonhazardous oil-field wastes (NOW) into salt caverns. Argonne determined that if caverns are sited and designed well, operated carefully, closed properly, and monitored routinely, they could be suitable for disposing of oil-field wastes. On the basis of these findings, Argonne subsequently conducted a preliminary evaluation of the possibility that adverse human health effects (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) could result from exposure to contaminants released from the NOW disposed of in domal salt caverns. Steps used in this evaluation included the following: identifying potential contaminants of concern, determining how humans could be exposed to these contaminants, assessing contaminant toxicities, estimating contaminant intakes, and calculating human cancer and noncancer risk estimates. Five postclosure cavern release scenarios were assessed. These were inadvertent cavern intrusion, failure of the cavern seal, failure of the cavern through cracks, failure of the cavern through leaky interbeds, and a partial collapse of the cavern roof. Assuming a single, generic, salt cavern and generic oil-field wastes, potential human health effects associated with constituent hazardous substances (arsenic, benzene, cadmium, and chromium) were assessed under each of these scenarios. Preliminary results provided excess cancer risk and hazard index (referring to noncancer health effects) estimates that were well within the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) target range for acceptable exposure risk levels. These results led to the preliminary conclusion that from a human health perspective, salt caverns can provide an acceptable disposal method for nonhazardous oil-field wastes.

  17. Satellite Power System (SPS) environmental impacts, preliminary assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Livingston, F. R.

    1978-01-01

    Present power plant assessment factors are used to present satellite power system (SPS) impacts. In contrast to oil, gas, nuclear and coal fueled power plants, the SPS and hydroelectric power plants produce air, water, and solid waste emissions only during the construction phase. Land use impacts result from the placement of rectennas used for microwave receiving and rectifying. Air quality impacts of the SPS resulting from the construction phase amount to 0.405 metric tons per megawatt year. Solid wastes impacts are 0.108 metric tons per year of operation. Other impacts such as those caused by heavy lift launch vehicle sites are also discussed.

  18. Preliminary assessment of potential CDM early start projects in Brazil

    SciTech Connect

    Meyers, S.; Sathaye, J.; Lehman, B.; Schumacher, K.; van Vliet, O.; Moreira, J.R.

    2000-11-01

    The Brazil/US Aspen Global Forum on Climate Change Policies and Programs has facilitated a dialogue between key Brazil and US public and private sector leaders on the subject of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). With support from the US government, a cooperative effort between Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of Sao Paulo conducted an assessment of a number of projects put forth by Brazilian sponsors. Initially, we gathered information and conducted a screening assessment for ten projects in the energy sector and six projects in the forestry sector. Some of the projects appeared to offer greater potential to be attractive for CDM, or had better information available. We then conducted a more detailed assessment of 12 of these projects, and two other projects that were submitted after the initial screening. An important goal was to assess the potential impact of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) on the financial performance of projects. With the exception of the two forestry-based fuel displacement projects, the impact of CERs on the internal rate of return (IRR) is fairly small. This is true for both the projects that displace grid electricity and those that displace local (diesel-based) electricity production. The relative effect of CERs is greater for projects whose IRR without CERs is low. CERs have a substantial effect on the IRR of the two short-rotation forestry energy substitution projects. One reason is that the biofuel displaces coke and oil, both of which are carbon-intensive. Another factor is that the product of these projects (charcoal and woodfuel, respectively) is relatively low value, so the revenue from carbon credits has a strong relative impact. CERs also have a substantial effect on the NPV of the carbon sequestration projects. Financial and other barriers pose a challenge for implementation of most of the projects. In most cases, the sponsor lacks sufficient capital, and loans are available only at high interest

  19. Preliminary assessment of industrial needs for an advanced ocean technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mourad, A. G.; Maher, K. M.; Balon, J. E.; Coyle, A. G.; Henkener, J. A.

    1979-01-01

    A quick-look review of selected ocean industries is presented for the purpose of providing NASA OSTA with an assessment of technology needs and market potential. The size and growth potential, needs and problem areas, technology presently used and its suppliers, are given for industries involved in deep ocean mining, petrochemicals ocean energy conversion. Supporting services such as ocean bottom surveying; underwater transportation, data collection, and work systems; and inspection and diving services are included. Examples of key problem areas that are amenable to advanced technology solutions are included. Major companies are listed.

  20. Preliminary assessment of factors influencing riverine fish communities in Massachusetts.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Armstrong, David S.; Richards, Todd A.; Brandt, Sara L.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation (MDCR), Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MDEP), and the Massachusetts Department of Fish and Game (MDFG), conducted a preliminary investigation of fish communities in small- to medium-sized Massachusetts streams. The objective of this investigation was to determine relations between fish-community characteristics and anthropogenic alteration, including flow alteration and impervious cover, relative to the effect of physical basin and land-cover (environmental) characteristics. Fish data were obtained for 756 fish-sampling sites from the Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife fish-community database. A review of the literature was used to select a set of fish metrics responsive to flow alteration. Fish metrics tested include two fish-community metrics (fluvial-fish relative abundance and fluvial-fish species richness), and five indicator species metrics (relative abundance of brook trout, blacknose dace, fallfish, white sucker, and redfin pickerel). Streamflows were simulated for each fish-sampling site using the Sustainable Yield Estimator application (SYE). Daily streamflows and the SYE water-use database were used to determine a set of indicators of flow alteration, including percent alteration of August median flow, water-use intensity, and withdrawal and return-flow fraction. The contributing areas to the fish-sampling sites were delineated and used with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to determine a set of environmental characteristics, including elevation, basin slope, percent sand and gravel, percent wetland, and percent open water, and a set of anthropogenic-alteration variables, including impervious cover and dam density. Two analytical techniques, quantile regression and generalized linear modeling, were applied to determine the association between fish-response variables and the selected environmental and

  1. Assessing human health risk in the USDA forest service

    SciTech Connect

    Hamel, D.R.

    1990-12-31

    This paper identifies the kinds of risk assessments being done by or for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. Summaries of data sources currently in use and the pesticide risk assessments completed by the agency or its contractors are discussed. An overview is provided of the agency`s standard operating procedures for the conduct of toxicological, ecological, environmental fate, and human health risk assessments.

  2. A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

    2009-09-01

    Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

  3. [Research progress on index system of regional ecological risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Meng, Ji-Jun; Zhao, Chun-Hong

    2009-04-01

    Regional ecological risk assessment (RERA) covers the assessments of multiple risk sources, receptors, and endpoints, while the selection of assessment indices is quite complicated, being a hotspot in regional environment management research. Domestic and international researches on RERA revealed that three processes in RERA are of vital, i.e., risk probability assessment measured by risk probability index, status and value assessment of ecosystem at regional scale indicated by ecological index, and vulnerability assessment of each ecosystem in a region under risk measured by vulnerability index. The main problems in the establishment of RERA index system are the strong subjectivity and poor comparability, and thus, the index system should be set up in the three key processes under the principles of objectivity, integration, hierarchy, and comparability. Due to the fact that the status and value assessment of ecosystem is most complicated, the index system should be formulated by compulsory and optional components to increase the comparability of RERA results between regions.

  4. Cancer Risk Assessment for Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richmond, Robert C.; Curreri, Peter A. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    is predominantly used for assessing cancer risk caused by space radiation, and that is the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Fact #2: The atomic-bomb-survivor database, itself a remarkable achievement, contains uncertainties. These include the actual exposure to each individual, the radiation quality of that exposure, and the fact that the exposure was to acute doses of predominantly low-LET radiation, not to chronic exposures of high-LET radiation expected on long-duration interplanetary manned missions.

  5. Preliminary assessment of RX 72601, a new anticholinesterase in man

    PubMed Central

    Dettmar, P. W.; Metcalf, G.; Smith, M. H.; Gillett, G. B.; Hedges, Annmarie; Richens, A.

    1974-01-01

    1 The effect of RX 72601, neostigmine plus atropine, or saline on neuromuscular blockade with (+)-tubocurarine was studied in a double blind trial in four healthy male volunteers. 2 The methods used to assess neuromuscular function were voluntary grip strength and indirectly evoked muscle twitches. The muscarinic action was assessed by measuring intestinal motility with a pressure sensitive radio pill, and auscultation of the abdomen. Blood pressure and pulse rate were also recorded. The degree of acetylcholinesterase inhibition achieved in whole blood was determined before and at intervals after the administration of the anticholinesterases. 3 Both RX 72601 (0.66-0.83 mg) and neostigmine (2.5 mg) completely reversed the neuromuscular blockade produced by tubocurarine, but the time course of reversal differed. RX 72601 (0.66-0.83 mg) produced similar inhibition of acetylcholinesterase in whole blood to neostigmine (2.5 mg). The doses of RX 72601 used caused minimal stimulation at muscarinic sites as evidenced by the limited effect on pulse rate and intestinal activity. 4 It was concluded that RX 72601 could be safely used to reverse the effects of neuromuscular blockade without the need for premedication with atropine. PMID:22454950

  6. Preliminary materials assessment for the Satellite Power System (SPS)

    SciTech Connect

    Teeter, R.R.; Jamieson, W.M.

    1980-01-01

    Presently, there are two SPS reference design concepts (one using silicon solar cells; the other using gallium arsenide solar cells). A materials assessment of both systems was performed based on the materials lists set forth in the DOE/NASA SPS Reference System Report: Concept Development and Evaluation Program. This listing identified 22 materials (plus miscellaneous and organics) used in the SPS. Tracing the production processes for these 22 materials, a total demand for over 20 different bulk materials (copper, silicon, sulfuric acid, etc.) and nealy 30 raw materials (copper ore, sand, sulfur ore, etc.) was revealed. Assessment of these SPS material requirements produced a number of potential material supply problems. The more serious problems are those associated with the solar cell materials (gallium, gallium arsenide, sapphire, and solar grade silicon), and the graphite fiber required for the satellite structure and space construction facilities. In general, the gallium arsenide SPS option exhibits more serious problems than the silicon option, possibly because gallium arsenide technology is not as well developed as that for silicon. Results are presented and discussed in detail. (WHK)

  7. Risk assessment of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in water.

    PubMed

    Mena, Kristina D; Gerba, Charles P

    2009-01-01

    enhances its growth. The organism is usually found in whirlpools when the chlorine concentrations are low, but it has been isolated even in the presence of 3.00 ppm residual free chlorine (Price and Ahearn 1988). Many outbreaks of folliculitis and ear infections have been reportedly associated with the use of whirlpools and hot tubs that contain P. aeruginosa (Ratnam et al. 1986). Outbreaks have also been reported from exposure to P. aeruginosa in swimming pools and water slides. Although P. aeruginosa has a reputation for being resistant to disinfection, most studies show that it does not exhibit any marked resistance to the disinfectants used to treat drinking water such as chlorine, chloramines, ozone, or iodine. One author, however, did find it to be slightly more resistant to UV disinfection than most other bacteria (Wolfe 1990). Although much has been written about biofilms in the drinking water industry, very little has been reported regarding the role of P. aeruginosa in biofilms. Tap water appears to be a significant route of transmission in hospitals, from colonization of plumbing fixtures. It is still not clear if the colonization results from the water in the distribution system, or personnel use within the hospital. Infections and colonization can be significantly reduced by placement of filters on the water taps. The oral dose of P. aeruginosa required to establish colonization in a healthy subject is high (George et al. 1989a). During dose-response studies, even when subjects (mice or humans) were colonized via ingestion, there was no evidence of disease. P. aeruginosa administered by the aerosol route at levels of 10(7) cells did cause disease symptoms in mice, and was lethal in aerosolized doses of 10(9) cells. Aerosol dose-response studies have not been undertaken with human subjects. Human health risks associated with exposure to P. aeruginosa via drinking water ingestion were estimated using a four-step risk assessment approach. The risk of colonization

  8. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  9. Options for management of municipal solid waste in New York City: A preliminary comparison of health risks and policy implications

    PubMed Central

    Moy, Pearl; Krishnan, Nikhil; Ulloa, Priscilla; Cohen, Steven; Brandt-Rauf, Paul W.

    2008-01-01

    Landfill disposal and waste-to-energy (WTE) incineration remain the two principal options for managing municipal solid waste (MSW). One critical determinant of the acceptability of these options is the different health risks associated with each. In this analysis relying on published data and exposure modeling, we have performed health risk assessments for landfill disposal versus WTE treatment options for the management of New York City’s MSW. These are based on the realistic scenario of using a waste transfer station (WTS) in Brooklyn and then transporting the untreated MSW by truck to a landfill in Pennsylvania or using a WTE facility in Brooklyn and then transporting the resultant ash by truck to a landfill in Pennsylvania. The overall results indicate that the individual cancer risks for both options would be considered generally acceptable, although the risk from landfilling is approximately 5 times greater than from WTE treatment; the individual non-cancer health risks for both options would be considered generally unacceptable, although once again the risk from landfilling is approximately 5 times greater than from WTE treatment. If one considers only the population in Brooklyn that would be directly affected by the siting of either a WTS or a WTE facility in their immediate neighborhood, individual cancer and non-cancer health risks for both options would be considered generally acceptable, but risks for the former remain considerably higher than for the latter. These results should be considered preliminary due to several limitations of this study such as: consideration of risks only from inhalation exposures; assumption that only volume and not composition of the waste stream is altered by WTE treatment; reliance on data from the literature rather than actual measurements of the sites considered, assuming comparability of the sites. However, the results of studies such as this, in conjunction with ecological, socioeconomic and equity considerations

  10. 75 FR 82387 - Next Generation Risk Assessment Public Dialogue Conference

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-30

    ... robust system for chemical risk assessment by incorporating new knowledge about molecular system biology... molecular systems biology, the advent of several recent reports from the National Research Council,...

  11. A new approach to risk assessment integrating scientific evaluation and economic assessment of costs and benefits.

    PubMed

    Barnard, R C

    1996-10-01

    Traditional quantitative risk assessment based on conservative generic assumptions led to an upper-bound risk value with minimum or no consideration of costs and benefits. There is a growing consensus for a new approach to risk assessment based on a combination of scientific risk assessment and economic cost-benefit analysis. Scientific evaluation would be improved to support the economic cost-benefit analysis. The objective is to demonstrate whether the benefits justify the costs. The move in the new direction is shown by Executive Order 12866 and the Office of Management and Budget implementing document, the proposed regulatory reform legislation in Congress, the draft report of the Risk Assessment and Risk Management Commission, and the Safe Drinking Water Act Amendments of 1996 that enacted the new approach combining scientific and economic assessment of risk. This Commentary discusses these developments with particular reference to contemplated changes in scientific risk assessment to support a parallel economic risk-benefit analysis. PMID:8933625

  12. An Integrated Approach to Risk Assessment for Concurrent Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Voss, Luke; Feather, Martin; Cornford, Steve

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes an approach to risk assessment and analysis suited to the early phase, concurrent design of a space mission. The approach integrates an agile, multi-user risk collection tool, a more in-depth risk analysis tool, and repositories of risk information. A JPL developed tool, named RAP, is used for collecting expert opinions about risk from designers involved in the concurrent design of a space mission. Another in-house developed risk assessment tool, named DDP, is used for the analysis.

  13. A comparison of risk assessment techniques from qualitative to quantitative

    SciTech Connect

    Altenbach, T.J.

    1995-02-13

    Risk assessment techniques vary from purely qualitative approaches, through a regime of semi-qualitative to the more traditional quantitative. Constraints such as time, money, manpower, skills, management perceptions, risk result communication to the public, and political pressures all affect the manner in which risk assessments are carried out. This paper surveys some risk matrix techniques, examining the uses and applicability for each. Limitations and problems for each technique are presented and compared to the others. Risk matrix approaches vary from purely qualitative axis descriptions of accident frequency vs consequences, to fully quantitative axis definitions using multi-attribute utility theory to equate different types of risk from the same operation.

  14. Risk assessment of thyroid follicular cell tumors.

    PubMed Central

    Hill, R N; Crisp, T M; Hurley, P M; Rosenthal, S L; Singh, D V

    1998-01-01

    Thyroid follicular cell tumors arise in rodents from mutations, perturbations of thyroid and pituitary hormone status with increased stimulation of thyroid cell growth by thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), or a combination of the two. The only known human thyroid carcinogen is ionizing radiation. It is not known for certain whether chemicals that affect thyroid cell growth lead to human thyroid cancer. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency applies the following science policy positions: 1) chemically induced rodent thyroid tumors are presumed to be relevant to humans; 2) when interspecies information is lacking, the default is to assume comparable carcinogenic sensitivity in rodents and humans; 3) adverse rodent noncancer thyroid effects due to chemically induced thyroid-pituitary disruption are presumed to be relevant to humans; 4) linear dose-response considerations are applied to thyroid cancer induced by chemical substances that either do not disrupt thyroid functioning or lack mode of action information; 5) nonlinear thyroid cancer dose-response considerations are applied to chemicals that reduce thyroid hormone levels, increase TSH and thyroid cell division, and are judged to lack mutagenic activity; and 6) nonlinear considerations may be applied in thyroid cancer dose-response assessments on a case-by-case basis for chemicals that disrupt thyroid-pituitary functioning and demonstrate some mutagenic activity. Required data for risk assessment purposes is mode of action information on mutagenicity, increases in follicular cell growth (cell size and number) and thyroid gland weight, thyroid-pituitary hormones, site of action, correlations between doses producing thyroid effects and cancer, and reversibility of effects when dosing ceases. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 PMID:9681971

  15. Risk Assessment During the 2002 Etnean Eruption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rongo, R.; Crisci, G. M.

    2003-04-01

    A two-dimensional cellular automata model for the simulation of lava flows, has been in the past validated on real cases of Etnean eruptions. Its latest release, SCIARA-hex1 was applied on the 1991--93 Etnean eruption in the validation phase. Lava flows can be viewed as a dynamic system based on local interactions with discrete time and space, where space is represented by hexagonal cells, whose specification (state) describes the characteristics (substates) of the corresponding piece of space. The substates are: altitude, lava thickness, temperature, lava flows. SCIARA-hex1 was applied during the Etnean crisis in the summer of 2001, when a new eruption threatened the town of Nicolosi. The real-case study was performed in collaboration with the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Vulcanology of Catania, Sicily. A new real-time application of SCIARA has been the risk assessment for the new event which occurred in the autumn of 2002. Two major eruptions have charactersied this event. The first, started on the NE flank of the volcano, with lava generated by a fracture between 2500 ma.s.l and 2350 ma.s.l., near the 1809 fracture and point towards the town of Linguaglossa. The second one has interested the SW flank, with an emission point near 2700 ma.s.l., between the SE main crater and La Montagnola and flowing over the 2001 lava field. The simulation results have been consistent with the real lava flow paths, despite poor morphology data due to the presence of solidified magma from the 2001 event. SCIARA has proved to be a reliable and flexible tool for forecasting lava flow paths and for assessing hazard for this event, besides the development of real-time scenarios.

  16. Preliminary assessment report for National Guard Facility, Installation 25255, Rehoboth, Massachusetts. Installation Restoration Program

    SciTech Connect

    Haffenden, R.; Flaim, S.; Krokosz, M.

    1993-08-01

    This report presents the results of the preliminary assessment (PA) conducted by Argonne National Laboratory at the Massachusetts Army National Guard (MAARNG) property known as the Rehoboth National Guard Facility (RNGF) in Rehoboth, Massachusetts. Preliminary assessments of federal facilities are being conducted to compile the information necessary for completing preremedial activities and to provide a basis for establishing corrective actions in response to releases of hazardous substances. The principal objective of the PA is to characterize the site accurately and determine the need for ftirther action by examining site activities, quantities of hazardous substances present, and potential pathways by which contamination could affect public health and the environment. This PA satisfies, for the RNGF property, phase I of the Department of Defense Installation Restoration Program (IRP). The scope of this assessment is limited to the facilities under the control of the MAARNG and the past activities contained within that area.

  17. Development and preliminary reliability of a multitasking assessment for executive functioning after concussion.

    PubMed

    Smith, Laurel B; Radomski, Mary Vining; Davidson, Leslie Freeman; Finkelstein, Marsha; Weightman, Margaret M; McCulloch, Karen L; Scherer, Matthew R

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES. Executive functioning deficits may result from concussion. The Charge of Quarters (CQ) Duty Task is a multitask assessment designed to assess executive functioning in servicemembers after concussion. In this article, we discuss the rationale and process used in the development of the CQ Duty Task and present pilot data from the preliminary evaluation of interrater reliability (IRR). METHOD. Three evaluators observed as 12 healthy participants performed the CQ Duty Task and measured performance using various metrics. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) quantified IRR. RESULTS. The ICC for task completion was .94. ICCs for other assessment metrics were variable. CONCLUSION. Preliminary IRR data for the CQ Duty Task are encouraging, but further investigation is needed to improve IRR in some domains. Lessons learned in the development of the CQ Duty Task could benefit future test development efforts with populations other than the military.

  18. Environmental implications of accelerated gasohol production: preliminary assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-01-01

    This report assesses the environmental impacts of increasing US production of fuel ethanol by 330 million gallons per year in the 1980 to 1981 time frame in order to substitute gasohol for 10% of the unleaded gasoline consumed in the United States. Alternate biomass feedstocks are examined and corn is selected as the most logical feedstock, based on its availability and cost. Three corn conversion processes that could be used to attain the desired 1980 to 1981 production are identified; fermentation plants that use a feedstock of starch and wastes from an adjacent corn refining plants are found to have environmental and economic advantages. No insurmountable environmental problems can be achieved using current technology; the capital and operating costs of this control are estimated. If ethanol production is increased substantially after 1981, the environmentally acceptable use or disposal of stillage, a liquid by-product of fermentation, could become a serious problem.

  19. Assessing interpersonal aspects of schizoid personality disorder: preliminary validation studies.

    PubMed

    Kosson, David S; Blackburn, Ronald; Byrnes, Katherine A; Park, Sohee; Logan, Caroline; Donnelly, John P

    2008-03-01

    In 2 studies, we examined the reliability and validity of an interpersonal measure of schizoid personality disorder (SZPD) based on nonverbal behaviors and interpersonal interactions occurring during interviews. A total of 556 male jail inmates in the United States participated in Study 1; 175 mentally disordered offenders in maximum security hospitals in the United Kingdom participated in Study 2. Across both samples, scores on the Interpersonal Measure of Schizoid Personality Disorder (IM-SZ) exhibited adequate reliability and patterns of correlations with other measures consistent with expectations. The scale displayed patterns of relatively specific correlations with interview and self-report measures of SZPD. In addition, the IM-SZ correlated in an expected manner with features of psychopathy and antisocial personality and with independent ratings of interpersonal behavior. We address implications for assessment of personality disorder.

  20. Documentation of the Ecological Risk Assessment Computer Model ECORSK.5

    SciTech Connect

    Anthony F. Gallegos; Gilbert J. Gonzales

    1999-06-01

    The FORTRAN77 ecological risk computer model--ECORSK.5--has been used to estimate the potential toxicity of surficial deposits of radioactive and non-radioactive contaminants to several threatened and endangered (T and E) species at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). These analyses to date include preliminary toxicity estimates for the Mexican spotted owl, the American peregrine falcon, the bald eagle, and the southwestern willow flycatcher. This work has been performed as required for the Record of Decision for the construction of the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) Facility at LANL as part of the Environmental Impact Statement. The model is dependent on the use of the geographic information system and associated software--ARC/INFO--and has been used in conjunction with LANL's Facility for Information Management and Display (FIMAD) contaminant database. The integration of FIMAD data and ARC/INFO using ECORSK.5 allows the generation of spatial information from a gridded area of potential exposure called an Ecological Exposure Unit. ECORSK.5 was used to simulate exposures using a modified Environmental Protection Agency Quotient Method. The model can handle a large number of contaminants within the home range of T and E species. This integration results in the production of hazard indices which, when compared to risk evaluation criteria, estimate the potential for impact from consumption of contaminants in food and ingestion of soil. The assessment is considered a Tier-2 type of analysis. This report summarizes and documents the ECORSK.5 code, the mathematical models used in the development of ECORSK.5, and the input and other requirements for its operation. Other auxiliary FORTRAN 77 codes used for processing and graphing output from ECORSK.5 are also discussed. The reader may refer to reports cited in the introduction to obtain greater detail on past applications of ECORSK.5 and assumptions used in deriving model parameters.