Making the Case for Evidence-Based Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bates, Joanne; McClure, Janelle; Spinks, Andy

2010-01-01

Evidence-based practice is the collection, interpretation, and use of data, such as collection statistics or assessment results, that measure the effectiveness of a library media program. In this article, the authors will present various forms of evidence and show that any library media specialist can use data to make informed decisions that…

A Framework for Thinking about Informal Statistical Inference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Makar, Katie; Rubin, Andee

2009-01-01

Informal inferential reasoning has shown some promise in developing students' deeper understanding of statistical processes. This paper presents a framework to think about three key principles of informal inference--generalizations "beyond the data," probabilistic language, and data as evidence. The authors use primary school classroom…

Non-parametric model selection for subject-specific topological organization of resting-state functional connectivity.

PubMed

Ferrarini, Luca; Veer, Ilya M; van Lew, Baldur; Oei, Nicole Y L; van Buchem, Mark A; Reiber, Johan H C; Rombouts, Serge A R B; Milles, J

2011-06-01

In recent years, graph theory has been successfully applied to study functional and anatomical connectivity networks in the human brain. Most of these networks have shown small-world topological characteristics: high efficiency in long distance communication between nodes, combined with highly interconnected local clusters of nodes. Moreover, functional studies performed at high resolutions have presented convincing evidence that resting-state functional connectivity networks exhibits (exponentially truncated) scale-free behavior. Such evidence, however, was mostly presented qualitatively, in terms of linear regressions of the degree distributions on log-log plots. Even when quantitative measures were given, these were usually limited to the r(2) correlation coefficient. However, the r(2) statistic is not an optimal estimator of explained variance, when dealing with (truncated) power-law models. Recent developments in statistics have introduced new non-parametric approaches, based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, for the problem of model selection. In this work, we have built on this idea to statistically tackle the issue of model selection for the degree distribution of functional connectivity at rest. The analysis, performed at voxel level and in a subject-specific fashion, confirmed the superiority of a truncated power-law model, showing high consistency across subjects. Moreover, the most highly connected voxels were found to be consistently part of the default mode network. Our results provide statistically sound support to the evidence previously presented in literature for a truncated power-law model of resting-state functional connectivity. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic reasoning under time pressure: an assessment in Italian, Spanish and English psychology undergraduates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agus, M.; Hitchcott, P. K.; Penna, M. P.; Peró-Cebollero, M.; Guàrdia-Olmos, J.

2016-11-01

Many studies have investigated the features of probabilistic reasoning developed in relation to different formats of problem presentation, showing that it is affected by various individual and contextual factors. Incomplete understanding of the identity and role of these factors may explain the inconsistent evidence concerning the effect of problem presentation format. Thus, superior performance has sometimes been observed for graphically, rather than verbally, presented problems. The present study was undertaken to address this issue. Psychology undergraduates without any statistical expertise (N = 173 in Italy; N = 118 in Spain; N = 55 in England) were administered statistical problems in two formats (verbal-numerical and graphical-pictorial) under a condition of time pressure. Students also completed additional measures indexing several potentially relevant individual dimensions (statistical ability, statistical anxiety, attitudes towards statistics and confidence). Interestingly, a facilitatory effect of graphical presentation was observed in the Italian and Spanish samples but not in the English one. Significantly, the individual dimensions predicting statistical performance also differed between the samples, highlighting a different role of confidence. Hence, these findings confirm previous observations concerning problem presentation format while simultaneously highlighting the importance of individual dimensions.

Psychiatric Presentations During All 4 Phases of the Lunar Cycle.

PubMed

Francis, Omar J; Kopke, Bryan J; Affatato, Anthony J; Jarski, Robert W

2017-01-01

Context • Anecdotal evidence concerning a relationship between human illnesses and a full moon is frequently claimed by as many as 81% of mental health workers. Previous scientific investigations have studied only the full-moon phase and its possible effect on psychiatric presentations. However, information is limited about all 4 phases of the lunar cycle and their effects on different types of psychiatric disorders. Objective • This study primarily intended to evaluate the number of psychiatric presentations to a hospital's emergency department across all 4 phases of the lunar cycle. The secondary objective was to investigate the statistical differences among 5 categories of common mental disorders in relation to the 4 lunar phases. Design • This study was an observational analytic cohort study. Setting • The study took place in the emergency department of a 140-bed, community-teaching hospital. Participants • Participants were 1857 patients who were aged >17 y and who had had a psychiatric component to a visit to the emergency department. Outcome Measures • Data from electronic medical records were collected for 41 consecutive months. The participants were divided into 5 diagnostic groups based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th ed (DSM-5). The study measured the number of psychiatric presentations for each group during the 4 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-defined phases of the lunar cycle, and the study was statistically powered to detect small effects. Results • The following psychiatric presentations occurred: (1) 464 during the new moon; (2) 483 during the first quarter; (3) 449 during the full moon; and (4) 461 during the third quarter (4-group overall χ2, P = .89). Differences between the 5 diagnostic categories across the 4 lunar phases were not statistically significant (4-group overall χ2, P = .85 for the 5 diagnostic categories). Conclusions • Although many traditional and nontraditional providers believe in effects caused by the full moon based on casual observation or anecdotal evidence, this perception was not supported in the current study. Furthermore, no evidence demonstrated increased psychiatric presentations during the other 3 phases of the lunar cycle. The study found that the lunar cycle did not have an effect on the incidence of psychiatric presentations or on the DSM-5 categories. If lunar effects exist, they are probably small or infrequent, making them difficult to validate statistically. The current study's results, in concert with those of most other studies on the subject, provide evidence that should help dismiss misconceptions about the magnitude or frequency of lunar effects on psychiatric illnesses.

SMAR Sessions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ploutz-Snyder, Robert

2011-01-01

This slide presentation is a series of educational presentations that are on the statistical function of analysis of variance (ANOVA). Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) examines variability between groups, relative to within groups, to determine whether there's evidence that the groups are not from the same population. One other presentation reviews hypothesis testing.

Postnatal width changes in the internal structures of the human mandible: a longitudinal three-dimensional cephalometric study using implants.

PubMed

Baumrind, S; Korn, E L

1992-12-01

This paper presents case-specific quantitative evidence of the systematic lateral displacement of metallic implants in the mandibles of treated and untreated human subjects between the ages of 8.5 and 15.5 years. This evidence appears to be consistent with the inference of small, but systematic increases in distance between the internal structures of the two sides of the osseous mandible during growth. Such a conclusion, however, is inconsistent with traditional beliefs that the internal structures of the mandibular symphysis fuse at the midline during the first post-natal year and remain dimensionally constant thereafter. We recently published evidence of statistically significant transverse displacement of metallic implants in the mandibular body region for 12 of 28 subjects for whom longitudinal data were available. Of the twelve subjects for whom statistically significant changes were observed, widening occurred in eleven cases and narrowing in one. Matching data are now available on concurrent ramus changes for 22 of the same 28 subjects, including 11 of the 12 for whom statistically significant width changes had previously been noted in the body region. In eight of these 11 subjects, statistically significant widening in the ramus region was also observed. No subject had statistically significant widening in the ramus region without also having statistically significant widening in the body region. No subject had statistically significant trans-ramus narrowing.

Material Phase Causality or a Dynamics-Statistical Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koprinkov, I. G.

2010-11-25

The internal phase dynamics of a quantum system interacting with an electromagnetic field is revealed in details. Theoretical and experimental evidences of a causal relation of the phase of the wave function to the dynamics of the quantum system are presented sistematically for the first time. A dynamics-statistical interpretation of the quantum mechanics is introduced.

Constructing diagnostic likelihood: clinical decisions using subjective versus statistical probability.

PubMed

Kinnear, John; Jackson, Ruth

2017-07-01

Although physicians are highly trained in the application of evidence-based medicine, and are assumed to make rational decisions, there is evidence that their decision making is prone to biases. One of the biases that has been shown to affect accuracy of judgements is that of representativeness and base-rate neglect, where the saliency of a person's features leads to overestimation of their likelihood of belonging to a group. This results in the substitution of 'subjective' probability for statistical probability. This study examines clinicians' propensity to make estimations of subjective probability when presented with clinical information that is considered typical of a medical condition. The strength of the representativeness bias is tested by presenting choices in textual and graphic form. Understanding of statistical probability is also tested by omitting all clinical information. For the questions that included clinical information, 46.7% and 45.5% of clinicians made judgements of statistical probability, respectively. Where the question omitted clinical information, 79.9% of clinicians made a judgement consistent with statistical probability. There was a statistically significant difference in responses to the questions with and without representativeness information (χ2 (1, n=254)=54.45, p<0.0001). Physicians are strongly influenced by a representativeness bias, leading to base-rate neglect, even though they understand the application of statistical probability. One of the causes for this representativeness bias may be the way clinical medicine is taught where stereotypic presentations are emphasised in diagnostic decision making. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Graphical tools for network meta-analysis in STATA.

PubMed

Chaimani, Anna; Higgins, Julian P T; Mavridis, Dimitris; Spyridonos, Panagiota; Salanti, Georgia

2013-01-01

Network meta-analysis synthesizes direct and indirect evidence in a network of trials that compare multiple interventions and has the potential to rank the competing treatments according to the studied outcome. Despite its usefulness network meta-analysis is often criticized for its complexity and for being accessible only to researchers with strong statistical and computational skills. The evaluation of the underlying model assumptions, the statistical technicalities and presentation of the results in a concise and understandable way are all challenging aspects in the network meta-analysis methodology. In this paper we aim to make the methodology accessible to non-statisticians by presenting and explaining a series of graphical tools via worked examples. To this end, we provide a set of STATA routines that can be easily employed to present the evidence base, evaluate the assumptions, fit the network meta-analysis model and interpret its results.

Graphical Tools for Network Meta-Analysis in STATA

PubMed Central

Chaimani, Anna; Higgins, Julian P. T.; Mavridis, Dimitris; Spyridonos, Panagiota; Salanti, Georgia

2013-01-01

Network meta-analysis synthesizes direct and indirect evidence in a network of trials that compare multiple interventions and has the potential to rank the competing treatments according to the studied outcome. Despite its usefulness network meta-analysis is often criticized for its complexity and for being accessible only to researchers with strong statistical and computational skills. The evaluation of the underlying model assumptions, the statistical technicalities and presentation of the results in a concise and understandable way are all challenging aspects in the network meta-analysis methodology. In this paper we aim to make the methodology accessible to non-statisticians by presenting and explaining a series of graphical tools via worked examples. To this end, we provide a set of STATA routines that can be easily employed to present the evidence base, evaluate the assumptions, fit the network meta-analysis model and interpret its results. PMID:24098547

Comparing the Persuasiveness of Narrative and Statistical Evidence Using Meta-Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Mike; Preiss, Raymond W.

1997-01-01

Compares the persuasiveness of using statistical versus narrative evidence (case studies or examples) across 15 investigations. Indicates that when comparing messages, statistical evidence is more persuasive than narrative evidence. (PA)

Educational Psychology Working to Improve Psychological Well-Being: An Example

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dawson, Joe; Singh-Dhesi, Davinder

2010-01-01

This article presents one English local authority's educational psychology service's approach to supporting children and young people's psychological well-being. Evidence for the effectiveness of the therapeutic approaches adopted by one intervention (the Child Behaviour Intervention Initiative [CBII]) is presented. The statistical analysis…

Architectural Barriers to the Physically Disabled.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kirkland, Sue-Anne

Presented is evidence on the increasing need to plan for the accommodation of the physically handicapped in the design and construction of present and future public buildings and transportation facilities in Canada. Terms such as "architectural barriers" and "disability" are defined. Statistics on disability incidence in Canada…

Prostate Cancer—Health Professional Version

Cancer.gov

Prostate cancers are often adenocarcinomas. Prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia is often present in association with prostatic adenocarcinoma. Find evidence-based information on prostate cancer including treatment, causes and prevention, screening, research, genetics, and statistics.

Adolescent counterarguing of TV beer advertisements: evidence for effectiveness of alcohol education and critical viewing discussions.

PubMed

Slater, M D; Rouner, D; Murphy, K; Beauvais, F; Van Leuven, J; Domenech-Rodriguez, M M

1996-01-01

The pervasiveness of American youth's exposure to alcohol advertising is well-documented, as is the correlational evidence linking such exposure to alcohol-related attitudes, use, and expectancies. While efforts to train young people to resist persuasive appeals are often made in alcohol education programs, little evidence exists concerning the effectiveness of such efforts. The present study (N = 83) found that recency of exposure to alcohol education classes and discussion of alcohol advertising in such classes predicts cognitive resistance (counterarguing) of such advertisements months or even years after class exposure. Age, gender, and ethnicity were statistically controlled. While females tended to counterargue the alcohol advertisements more than did males, there was no statistically significant difference in the impact of education on males and females.

Published GMO studies find no evidence of harm when corrected for multiple comparisons.

PubMed

Panchin, Alexander Y; Tuzhikov, Alexander I

2017-03-01

A number of widely debated research articles claiming possible technology-related health concerns have influenced the public opinion on genetically modified food safety. We performed a statistical reanalysis and review of experimental data presented in some of these studies and found that quite often in contradiction with the authors' conclusions the data actually provides weak evidence of harm that cannot be differentiated from chance. In our opinion the problem of statistically unaccounted multiple comparisons has led to some of the most cited anti-genetically modified organism health claims in history. We hope this analysis puts the original results of these studies into proper context.

Teaching statistics to nursing students: an expert panel consensus.

PubMed

Hayat, Matthew J; Eckardt, Patricia; Higgins, Melinda; Kim, MyoungJin; Schmiege, Sarah J

2013-06-01

Statistics education is a necessary element of nursing education, and its inclusion is recommended in the American Association of Colleges of Nursing guidelines for nurse training at all levels. This article presents a cohesive summary of an expert panel discussion, "Teaching Statistics to Nursing Students," held at the 2012 Joint Statistical Meetings. All panelists were statistics experts, had extensive teaching and consulting experience, and held faculty appointments in a U.S.-based nursing college or school. The panel discussed degree-specific curriculum requirements, course content, how to ensure nursing students understand the relevance of statistics, approaches to integrating statistics consulting knowledge, experience with classroom instruction, use of knowledge from the statistics education research field to make improvements in statistics education for nursing students, and classroom pedagogy and instruction on the use of statistical software. Panelists also discussed the need for evidence to make data-informed decisions about statistics education and training for nurses. Copyright 2013, SLACK Incorporated.

Earthquake triggering in southeast Africa following the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neves, Miguel; Custódio, Susana; Peng, Zhigang; Ayorinde, Adebayo

2018-02-01

In this paper we present evidence of earthquake dynamic triggering in southeast Africa. We analysed seismic waveforms recorded at 53 broad-band and short-period stations in order to identify possible increases in the rate of microearthquakes and tremor due to the passage of teleseismic waves generated by the Mw8.6 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake. We found evidence of triggered local earthquakes and no evidence of triggered tremor in the region. We assessed the statistical significance of the increase in the number of local earthquakes using β-statistics. Statistically significant dynamic triggering of local earthquakes was observed at 7 out of the 53 analysed stations. Two of these stations are located in the northeast coast of Madagascar and the other five stations are located in the Kaapvaal Craton, southern Africa. We found no evidence of dynamically triggered seismic activity in stations located near the structures of the East African Rift System. Hydrothermal activity exists close to the stations that recorded dynamic triggering, however, it also exists near the East African Rift System structures where no triggering was observed. Our results suggest that factors other than solely tectonic regime and geothermalism are needed to explain the mechanisms that underlie earthquake triggering.

An Evidence-Based Medicine Curriculum Improves General Surgery Residents' Standardized Test Scores in Research and Statistics.

PubMed

Trickey, Amber W; Crosby, Moira E; Singh, Monika; Dort, Jonathan M

2014-12-01

The application of evidence-based medicine to patient care requires unique skills of the physician. Advancing residents' abilities to accurately evaluate the quality of evidence is built on understanding of fundamental research concepts. The American Board of Surgery In-Training Examination (ABSITE) provides a relevant measure of surgical residents' knowledge of research design and statistics. We implemented a research education curriculum in an independent academic medical center general residency program, and assessed the effect on ABSITE scores. The curriculum consisted of five 1-hour monthly research and statistics lectures. The lectures were presented before the 2012 and 2013 examinations. Forty residents completing ABSITE examinations from 2007 to 2013 were included in the study. Two investigators independently identified research-related item topics from examination summary reports. Correct and incorrect responses were compared precurriculum and postcurriculum. Regression models were calculated to estimate improvement in postcurriculum scores, adjusted for individuals' scores over time and postgraduate year level. Residents demonstrated significant improvement in postcurriculum examination scores for research and statistics items. Correct responses increased 27% (P < .001). Residents were 5 times more likely to achieve a perfect score on research and statistics items postcurriculum (P < .001). Residents at all levels demonstrated improved research and statistics scores after receiving the curriculum. Because the ABSITE includes a wide spectrum of research topics, sustained improvements suggest a genuine level of understanding that will promote lifelong evaluation and clinical application of the surgical literature.

When Is Statistical Evidence Superior to Anecdotal Evidence in Supporting Probability Claims? The Role of Argument Type

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoeken, Hans; Hustinx, Lettica

2009-01-01

Under certain conditions, statistical evidence is more persuasive than anecdotal evidence in supporting a claim about the probability that a certain event will occur. In three experiments, it is shown that the type of argument is an important condition in this respect. If the evidence is part of an argument by generalization, statistical evidence…

Understanding quantitative research: part 1.

PubMed

Hoe, Juanita; Hoare, Zoë

This article, which is the first in a two-part series, provides an introduction to understanding quantitative research, basic statistics and terminology used in research articles. Critical appraisal of research articles is essential to ensure that nurses remain up to date with evidence-based practice to provide consistent and high-quality nursing care. This article focuses on developing critical appraisal skills and understanding the use and implications of different quantitative approaches to research. Part two of this article will focus on explaining common statistical terms and the presentation of statistical data in quantitative research.

State Estimation Using Dependent Evidence Fusion: Application to Acoustic Resonance-Based Liquid Level Measurement.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaobin; Li, Zhenghui; Li, Guo; Zhou, Zhe

2017-04-21

Estimating the state of a dynamic system via noisy sensor measurement is a common problem in sensor methods and applications. Most state estimation methods assume that measurement noise and state perturbations can be modeled as random variables with known statistical properties. However in some practical applications, engineers can only get the range of noises, instead of the precise statistical distributions. Hence, in the framework of Dempster-Shafer (DS) evidence theory, a novel state estimatation method by fusing dependent evidence generated from state equation, observation equation and the actual observations of the system states considering bounded noises is presented. It can be iteratively implemented to provide state estimation values calculated from fusion results at every time step. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a low-frequency acoustic resonance level gauge to obtain high-accuracy measurement results.

Statistical power comparisons at 3T and 7T with a GO / NOGO task.

PubMed

Torrisi, Salvatore; Chen, Gang; Glen, Daniel; Bandettini, Peter A; Baker, Chris I; Reynolds, Richard; Yen-Ting Liu, Jeffrey; Leshin, Joseph; Balderston, Nicholas; Grillon, Christian; Ernst, Monique

2018-07-15

The field of cognitive neuroscience is weighing evidence about whether to move from standard field strength to ultra-high field (UHF). The present study contributes to the evidence by comparing a cognitive neuroscience paradigm at 3 Tesla (3T) and 7 Tesla (7T). The goal was to test and demonstrate the practical effects of field strength on a standard GO/NOGO task using accessible preprocessing and analysis tools. Two independent matched healthy samples (N = 31 each) were analyzed at 3T and 7T. Results show gains at 7T in statistical strength, the detection of smaller effects and group-level power. With an increased availability of UHF scanners, these gains may be exploited by cognitive neuroscientists and other neuroimaging researchers to develop more efficient or comprehensive experimental designs and, given the same sample size, achieve greater statistical power at 7T. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Lost in Translation: Piloting a Novel Framework to Assess the Challenges in Translating Scientific Uncertainty From Empirical Findings to WHO Policy Statements

PubMed Central

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Huang, Jonathan Y.; Jones, Catherine M.

2017-01-01

Background: Calls for evidence-informed public health policy, with implicit promises of greater program effectiveness, have intensified recently. The methods to produce such policies are not self-evident, requiring a conciliation of values and norms between policy-makers and evidence producers. In particular, the translation of uncertainty from empirical research findings, particularly issues of statistical variability and generalizability, is a persistent challenge because of the incremental nature of research and the iterative cycle of advancing knowledge and implementation. This paper aims to assess how the concept of uncertainty is considered and acknowledged in World Health Organization (WHO) policy recommendations and guidelines. Methods: We selected four WHO policy statements published between 2008-2013 regarding maternal and child nutrient supplementation, infant feeding, heat action plans, and malaria control to represent topics with a spectrum of available evidence bases. Each of these four statements was analyzed using a novel framework to assess the treatment of statistical variability and generalizability. Results: WHO currently provides substantial guidance on addressing statistical variability through GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) ratings for precision and consistency in their guideline documents. Accordingly, our analysis showed that policy-informing questions were addressed by systematic reviews and representations of statistical variability (eg, with numeric confidence intervals). In contrast, the presentation of contextual or "background" evidence regarding etiology or disease burden showed little consideration for this variability. Moreover, generalizability or "indirectness" was uniformly neglected, with little explicit consideration of study settings or subgroups. Conclusion: In this paper, we found that non-uniform treatment of statistical variability and generalizability factors that may contribute to uncertainty regarding recommendations were neglected, including the state of evidence informing background questions (prevalence, mechanisms, or burden or distributions of health problems) and little assessment of generalizability, alternate interventions, and additional outcomes not captured by systematic review. These other factors often form a basis for providing policy recommendations, particularly in the absence of a strong evidence base for intervention effects. Consequently, they should also be subject to stringent and systematic evaluation criteria. We suggest that more effort is needed to systematically acknowledge (1) when evidence is missing, conflicting, or equivocal, (2) what normative considerations were also employed, and (3) how additional evidence may be accrued. PMID:29179291

Statistical treatment for the wet bias in tree-ring chronologies: A case study from the InteriorWest, USA

Treesearch

Yan Sun; Matthew F. Bekker; R. Justin DeRose; Roger Kjelgren; S. -Y. Simon Wang

2017-01-01

Dendroclimatic research has long assumed a linear relationship between tree-ring increment and climate variables. However, ring width frequently underestimates extremely wet years, a phenomenon we refer to as ‘wet bias’. In this paper, we present statistical evidence for wet bias that is obscured by the assumption of linearity. To improve tree-ring-climate modeling, we...

Primer of statistics in dental research: part I.

PubMed

Shintani, Ayumi

2014-01-01

Statistics play essential roles in evidence-based dentistry (EBD) practice and research. It ranges widely from formulating scientific questions, designing studies, collecting and analyzing data to interpreting, reporting, and presenting study findings. Mastering statistical concepts appears to be an unreachable goal among many dental researchers in part due to statistical authorities' limitations of explaining statistical principles to health researchers without elaborating complex mathematical concepts. This series of 2 articles aim to introduce dental researchers to 9 essential topics in statistics to conduct EBD with intuitive examples. The part I of the series includes the first 5 topics (1) statistical graph, (2) how to deal with outliers, (3) p-value and confidence interval, (4) testing equivalence, and (5) multiplicity adjustment. Part II will follow to cover the remaining topics including (6) selecting the proper statistical tests, (7) repeated measures analysis, (8) epidemiological consideration for causal association, and (9) analysis of agreement. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A demonstration of the application of the new paradigm for the evaluation of forensic evidence under conditions reflecting those of a real forensic-voice-comparison case.

PubMed

Enzinger, Ewald; Morrison, Geoffrey Stewart; Ochoa, Felipe

2016-01-01

The new paradigm for the evaluation of the strength of forensic evidence includes: The use of the likelihood-ratio framework. The use of relevant data, quantitative measurements, and statistical models. Empirical testing of validity and reliability under conditions reflecting those of the case under investigation. Transparency as to decisions made and procedures employed. The present paper illustrates the use of the new paradigm to evaluate strength of evidence under conditions reflecting those of a real forensic-voice-comparison case. The offender recording was from a landline telephone system, had background office noise, and was saved in a compressed format. The suspect recording included substantial reverberation and ventilation system noise, and was saved in a different compressed format. The present paper includes descriptions of the selection of the relevant hypotheses, sampling of data from the relevant population, simulation of suspect and offender recording conditions, and acoustic measurement and statistical modelling procedures. The present paper also explores the use of different techniques to compensate for the mismatch in recording conditions. It also examines how system performance would have differed had the suspect recording been of better quality. Copyright © 2015 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Supporting the Transition from Primary School to Secondary School for Children Who Are Looked after

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brewin, Marnie; Statham, June

2011-01-01

Anecdotal evidence and statistics indicate that transition to secondary school for children who are "Looked After" is likely to present challenges. The present study aimed to find out the key factors that support Looked After children through this transition, as perceived by the main stakeholders. Data were gathered in two stages, using…

Predicting and downscaling ENSO impacts on intraseasonal precipitation statistics in California: The 1997/98 event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gershunov, A.; Barnett, T.P.; Cayan, D.R.; Tubbs, T.; Goddard, L.

2000-01-01

Three long-range forecasting methods have been evaluated for prediction and downscaling of seasonal and intraseasonal precipitation statistics in California. Full-statistical, hybrid-dynamical - statistical and full-dynamical approaches have been used to forecast El Nin??o - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - related total precipitation, daily precipitation frequency, and average intensity anomalies during the January - March season. For El Nin??o winters, the hybrid approach emerges as the best performer, while La Nin??a forecasting skill is poor. The full-statistical forecasting method features reasonable forecasting skill for both La Nin??a and El Nin??o winters. The performance of the full-dynamical approach could not be evaluated as rigorously as that of the other two forecasting schemes. Although the full-dynamical forecasting approach is expected to outperform simpler forecasting schemes in the long run, evidence is presented to conclude that, at present, the full-dynamical forecasting approach is the least viable of the three, at least in California. The authors suggest that operational forecasting of any intraseasonal temperature, precipitation, or streamflow statistic derivable from the available records is possible now for ENSO-extreme years.

Data on the migration of health-care workers: sources, uses, and challenges.

PubMed Central

Diallo, Khassoum

2004-01-01

The migration of health workers within and between countries is a growing concern worldwide because of its impact on health systems in developing and developed countries alike. Policy decisions need to be made at the national, regional and international levels to manage more effectively this phenomenon, but those decisions will be effective and correctly implemented and evaluated only if they are based on adequate statistical data. Most statistics on the migration of health-care workers are neither complete nor fully comparable, and they are often underused, limited (because they often give only a broad description of the phenomena) and not as timely as required. There is also a conflict between the wide range of potential sources of data and the poor statistical evidence on the migration of health personnel. There are two major problems facing researchers who wish to provide evidence on this migration: the problems commonly faced when studying migration in general, such as definitional and comparability problems of "worker migrations" and those related to the specific movements of the health workforce. This paper presents information on the uses of statistics and those who use them, the strengths and limitations of the main data sources, and other challenges that need to be met to obtain good evidence on the migration of health workers. This paper also proposes methods to improve the collection, analysis, sharing, and use of statistics on the migration of health workers. PMID:15375450

The “χ” of the Matter: Testing the Relationship between Paleoenvironments and Three Theropod Clades

PubMed Central

Sales, Marcos A. F.; Lacerda, Marcel B.; Horn, Bruno L. D.; de Oliveira, Isabel A. P.; Schultz, Cesar L.

2016-01-01

The view of spinosaurs as dinosaurs of semi-aquatic habits and strongly associated with marginal and coastal habitats are deeply rooted in both scientific and popular knowledge, but it was never statistically tested. Inspired by a previous analysis of other dinosaur clades and major paleoenvironmental categories, here we present our own statistical evaluation of the association between coastal and terrestrial paleoenvironments and spinosaurids, along with other two theropod taxa: abelisaurids and carcharodontosaurids. We also included a taphonomic perspective and classified the occurrences in categories related to potential biases in order to better address our interpretations. Our main results can be summarized as follows: 1) the taxon with the largest amount of statistical evidence showing it positively associated to coastal paleoenvironments is Spinosauridae; 2) abelisaurids and carcharodontosaurids had more statistical evidence showing them positively associated with terrestrial paleoenvironments; 3) it is likely that spinosaurids also occupied spatially inland areas in a way somehow comparable at least to carcharodontosaurids; 4) abelisaurids may have been more common than the other two taxa in inland habitats. PMID:26829315

Planetary Defense Legacy for a Certain Future

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-04-01

hyperbole. Although I could accept prior impacts as historical fact, having seen Meteor Crater in Arizona and accepted the evidence presented by Luis Alvarez...context of impersonal numbers or statistics, the lives of individuals lose meaning. A threat that puts 100 people at risk is likely to be seen as quite...automobiles even though air travel is statistically safer .52 Some sociologists have estimated that a risk of death of 1 in 1 million is the public’s

Factors that Affect Operational Reliability of Turbojet Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1956-01-01

The problem of improving operational reliability of turbojet engines is studied in a series of papers. Failure statistics for this engine are presented, the theory and experimental evidence on how engine failures occur are described, and the methods available for avoiding failure in operation are discussed. The individual papers of the series are Objectives, Failure Statistics, Foreign-Object Damage, Compressor Blades, Combustor Assembly, Nozzle Diaphrams, Turbine Buckets, Turbine Disks, Rolling Contact Bearings, Engine Fuel Controls, and Summary Discussion.

Level of clinical evidence presented at the International Society for Hip Arthroscopy Annual Scientific Meeting over 5 years (2010–2014)

PubMed Central

Kay, Jeffrey; de SA, Darren; Shallow, Scott; Simunovic, Nicole; Safran, Marc R.; Philippon, Marc J.; Ayeni, Olufemi R.

2015-01-01

The International Society for Hip Arthroscopy (ISHA) Annual Scientific Meeting is at the forefront of informing today’s orthopaedic surgeons and society of the rapid advances in the exponentially growing field of hip arthroscopy. The purpose of this study was to evaluate and observe any trends in the level of clinical evidence in the papers and posters presented at the ISHA Annual Scientific Meeting from 2010 to 2014. The online abstracts of the paper and poster presentations presented at the ISHA Annual Scientific Meetings were independently evaluated by two reviewers (582 total resulting presentations). Two reviewers screened these results for clinical studies and graded the quality of evidence from level I (i.e. randomized trials) to IV (i.e. case series) based on the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons classification system. Four hundred and twenty-eight presentations met the inclusion criteria and were evaluated. Overall, 10.1% of the presentations were level I, 12.8% were level II, 30.1% were level III and 47.0% were level IV evidence. Over time, from 2010 to 2014, we observed an increase in the percentage of level II paper presentations, an increase in the proportion of level III poster presentations, and a decrease in the proportion of both level IV paper and poster presentations. Significant non-random improvement in the level of evidence presented was noted for the poster presentations (P = 0.012) but not for the paper presentations (P = 0.61) over the study period. Statistical trends demonstrate ISHA’s increased awareness and commitment to presenting higher quality evidence as the availability of this evidence increases. PMID:27011857

Prediction of the effect of formulation on the toxicity of chemicals.

PubMed

Mistry, Pritesh; Neagu, Daniel; Sanchez-Ruiz, Antonio; Trundle, Paul R; Vessey, Jonathan D; Gosling, John Paul

2017-01-01

Two approaches for the prediction of which of two vehicles will result in lower toxicity for anticancer agents are presented. Machine-learning models are developed using decision tree, random forest and partial least squares methodologies and statistical evidence is presented to demonstrate that they represent valid models. Separately, a clustering method is presented that allows the ordering of vehicles by the toxicity they show for chemically-related compounds.

Power-up: A Reanalysis of 'Power Failure' in Neuroscience Using Mixture Modeling

PubMed Central

Wood, John

2017-01-01

Recently, evidence for endemically low statistical power has cast neuroscience findings into doubt. If low statistical power plagues neuroscience, then this reduces confidence in the reported effects. However, if statistical power is not uniformly low, then such blanket mistrust might not be warranted. Here, we provide a different perspective on this issue, analyzing data from an influential study reporting a median power of 21% across 49 meta-analyses (Button et al., 2013). We demonstrate, using Gaussian mixture modeling, that the sample of 730 studies included in that analysis comprises several subcomponents so the use of a single summary statistic is insufficient to characterize the nature of the distribution. We find that statistical power is extremely low for studies included in meta-analyses that reported a null result and that it varies substantially across subfields of neuroscience, with particularly low power in candidate gene association studies. Therefore, whereas power in neuroscience remains a critical issue, the notion that studies are systematically underpowered is not the full story: low power is far from a universal problem. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Recently, researchers across the biomedical and psychological sciences have become concerned with the reliability of results. One marker for reliability is statistical power: the probability of finding a statistically significant result given that the effect exists. Previous evidence suggests that statistical power is low across the field of neuroscience. Our results present a more comprehensive picture of statistical power in neuroscience: on average, studies are indeed underpowered—some very seriously so—but many studies show acceptable or even exemplary statistical power. We show that this heterogeneity in statistical power is common across most subfields in neuroscience. This new, more nuanced picture of statistical power in neuroscience could affect not only scientific understanding, but potentially policy and funding decisions for neuroscience research. PMID:28706080

On the correlation of angular position with time of occurrence of gamma-ray bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petrosian, Vahe; Efron, Bradley

1995-01-01

Evidence indicating that a large fraction of gamma-ray bursts are repeaters would provide strong support for noncosmological origin of these sources. Wang & Lingenfelter have claimed existance of a correlation between angular position and time of occurrence of bursts. We perform statistical tests and find a marginal evidence for nearby bursts occurring within 4 to 5 days of each other in the BATSE 1B catalog. This evidence is present also in the 2B catalogs, which in addition, shows some marginal evidence for bursts repetition at longer time delays up to the total length of the observations.

Using a higher criticism statistic to detect modest effects in a genome-wide study of rheumatoid arthritis

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

In high-dimensional studies such as genome-wide association studies, the correction for multiple testing in order to control total type I error results in decreased power to detect modest effects. We present a new analytical approach based on the higher criticism statistic that allows identification of the presence of modest effects. We apply our method to the genome-wide study of rheumatoid arthritis provided in the Genetic Analysis Workshop 16 Problem 1 data set. There is evidence for unknown bias in this study that could be explained by the presence of undetected modest effects. We compared the asymptotic and empirical thresholds for the higher criticism statistic. Using the asymptotic threshold we detected the presence of modest effects genome-wide. We also detected modest effects using 90th percentile of the empirical null distribution as a threshold; however, there is no such evidence when the 95th and 99th percentiles were used. While the higher criticism method suggests that there is some evidence for modest effects, interpreting individual single-nucleotide polymorphisms with significant higher criticism statistics is of undermined value. The goal of higher criticism is to alert the researcher that genetic effects remain to be discovered and to promote the use of more targeted and powerful studies to detect the remaining effects. PMID:20018032

The effect of studying A-level mathematics on performance in A-level physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutter, Pam

1994-01-01

Mathematics plays an important part in physics at all levels. At A-level, physics candidates who do not study A-level mathematics would seem to be at a disadvantage. This article presents statistical evidence to support this widely held belief.

Study of the relationship between solar activity and terrestrial weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sturrock, P. A.; Brueckner, G. E.; Dickinson, R. E.; Fukuta, N.; Lanzerotti, L. J.; Lindzen, R. S.; Park, C. G.; Wilcox, J. M.

1976-01-01

Evidence for some connection between weather and solar related phenomena is presented. Historical data of world wide temperature variations with relationship to change in solar luminosity are examined. Several test methods for estimating the statistical significance of such phenomena are discussed in detail.

Investigating the cognitive structure of stereotypes: Generic beliefs about groups predict social judgments better than statistical beliefs.

PubMed

Hammond, Matthew D; Cimpian, Andrei

2017-05-01

Stereotypes are typically defined as beliefs about groups, but this definition is underspecified. Beliefs about groups can be generic or statistical. Generic beliefs attribute features to entire groups (e.g., men are strong), whereas statistical beliefs encode the perceived prevalence of features (e.g., how common it is for men to be strong). In the present research, we sought to determine which beliefs-generic or statistical-are more central to the cognitive structure of stereotypes. Specifically, we tested whether generic or statistical beliefs are more influential in people's social judgments, on the assumption that greater functional importance indicates greater centrality in stereotype structure. Relative to statistical beliefs, generic beliefs about social groups were significantly stronger predictors of expectations (Studies 1-3) and explanations (Study 4) for unfamiliar individuals' traits. In addition, consistent with prior evidence that generic beliefs are cognitively simpler than statistical beliefs, generic beliefs were particularly predictive of social judgments for participants with more intuitive (vs. analytic) cognitive styles and for participants higher (vs. lower) in authoritarianism, who tend to view outgroups in simplistic, all-or-none terms. The present studies suggest that generic beliefs about groups are more central than statistical beliefs to the cognitive structure of stereotypes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

The Hanford Thyroid Disease Study: an alternative view of the findings.

PubMed

Hoffman, F Owen; Ruttenber, A James; Apostoaei, A Iulian; Carroll, Raymond J; Greenland, Sander

2007-02-01

The Hanford Thyroid Disease Study (HTDS) is one of the largest and most complex epidemiologic studies of the relation between environmental exposures to I and thyroid disease. The study detected no dose-response relation using a 0.05 level for statistical significance. The results for thyroid cancer appear inconsistent with those from other studies of populations with similar exposures, and either reflect inadequate statistical power, bias, or unique relations between exposure and disease risk. In this paper, we explore these possibilities, and present evidence that the HTDS statistical power was inadequate due to complex uncertainties associated with the mathematical models and assumptions used to reconstruct individual doses. We conclude that, at the very least, the confidence intervals reported by the HTDS for thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases are too narrow because they fail to reflect key uncertainties in the measurement-error structure. We recommend that the HTDS results be interpreted as inconclusive rather than as evidence for little or no disease risk from Hanford exposures.

Radial dependence of self-organized criticality behavior in TCABR tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

dos Santos Lima, G. Z.; Iarosz, K. C.; Batista, A. M.; Guimarães-Filho, Z. O.; Caldas, I. L.; Kuznetsov, Y. K.; Nascimento, I. C.; Viana, R. L.; Lopes, S. R.

2011-03-01

In this work we present evidence of the self-organized criticality behavior of the plasma edge electrostatic turbulence in the tokamak TCABR. Analyzing fluctuation data measured by Langmuir probes, we verify the radial dependence of self-organized criticality behavior at the plasma edge and scrape-off layer. We identify evidence of this radial criticality in statistical properties of the laminar period distribution function, power spectral density, autocorrelation, and Hurst parameter for the analyzed fluctuations.

A method for classification of multisource data using interval-valued probabilities and its application to HIRIS data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, H.; Swain, P. H.

1991-01-01

A method of classifying multisource data in remote sensing is presented. The proposed method considers each data source as an information source providing a body of evidence, represents statistical evidence by interval-valued probabilities, and uses Dempster's rule to integrate information based on multiple data source. The method is applied to the problems of ground-cover classification of multispectral data combined with digital terrain data such as elevation, slope, and aspect. Then this method is applied to simulated 201-band High Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (HIRIS) data by dividing the dimensionally huge data source into smaller and more manageable pieces based on the global statistical correlation information. It produces higher classification accuracy than the Maximum Likelihood (ML) classification method when the Hughes phenomenon is apparent.

Statistical tests of peaks and periodicities in the observed redshift distribution of quasi-stellar objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duari, Debiprosad; Gupta, Patrick D.; Narlikar, Jayant V.

1992-01-01

An overview of statistical tests of peaks and periodicities in the redshift distribution of quasi-stellar objects is presented. The tests include the power-spectrum analysis carried out by Burbidge and O'Dell (1972), the generalized Rayleigh test, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and the 'comb-tooth' test. The tests reveal moderate to strong evidence for periodicities of 0.0565 and 0.0127-0.0129. The confidence level of the periodicity of 0.0565 in fact marginally increases when redshifts are transformed to the Galactocentric frame. The same periodicity, first noticed in 1968, persists to date with a QSO population that has since grown about 30 times its original size. The prima facie evidence for periodicities in 1n(1 + z) is found to be of no great significance.

Statistical learning and the challenge of syntax: Beyond finite state automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elman, Jeff

2003-10-01

Over the past decade, it has been clear that even very young infants are sensitive to the statistical structure of language input presented to them, and use the distributional regularities to induce simple grammars. But can such statistically-driven learning also explain the acquisition of more complex grammar, particularly when the grammar includes recursion? Recent claims (e.g., Hauser, Chomsky, and Fitch, 2002) have suggested that the answer is no, and that at least recursion must be an innate capacity of the human language acquisition device. In this talk evidence will be presented that indicates that, in fact, statistically-driven learning (embodied in recurrent neural networks) can indeed enable the learning of complex grammatical patterns, including those that involve recursion. When the results are generalized to idealized machines, it is found that the networks are at least equivalent to Push Down Automata. Perhaps more interestingly, with limited and finite resources (such as are presumed to exist in the human brain) these systems demonstrate patterns of performance that resemble those in humans.

Improving the Principal Selection Process to Enhance the Opportunities for Women.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chapman, Judith

1986-01-01

Presents statistical profiles of Australian women principals and reviews research on school administrator selection in Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. To ensure equity, specific recommendations are given concerning vacancy announcements, criteria identification, consideration of evidence, and interviewing and decision-making…

Treatment of Selective Mutism: A Best-Evidence Synthesis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stone, Beth Pionek; Kratochwill, Thomas R.; Sladezcek, Ingrid; Serlin, Ronald C.

2002-01-01

Presents systematic analysis of the major treatment approaches used for selective mutism. Based on nonparametric statistical tests of effect sizes, major findings include the following: treatment of selective mutism is more effective than no treatment; behaviorally oriented treatment approaches are more effective than no treatment; and no…

Childhood Disintegrative Disorder: Issues for DSM-IV.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Volkmar, Fred R.

1992-01-01

This paper presents evidence regarding the validity of the diagnostic concept of "autistic-like" childhood disintegrative disorder, also known as Heller syndrome or as disintegrative psychosis. Its inclusion in the DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual) is supported, and proposed criteria and narrative description are provided.…

Patient education about anticoagulant medication: is narrative evidence or statistical evidence more effective?

PubMed

Mazor, Kathleen M; Baril, Joann; Dugan, Elizabeth; Spencer, Frederick; Burgwinkle, Pamela; Gurwitz, Jerry H

2007-12-01

To determine the relative impact of incorporating narrative evidence, statistical evidence or both into patient education about warfarin, a widely used oral anticoagulant medication. 600 patients receiving anticoagulant therapy were randomly assigned to view one of three versions of a video depicting a physician-patient encounter where anticoagulation treatment was discussed, or usual care (no video). The videos differed in whether the physician used narrative evidence (patient anecdotes), statistical evidence, or both to highlight key information. 317 patients completed both the baseline and post-test questionnaires. Questions assessed knowledge, beliefs and adherence to medication and laboratory monitoring regimens. All three approaches positively effected patients' warfarin-related knowledge, and beliefs in the importance of lab testing; there was also some indication that viewing a video strengthened belief in the benefits of warfarin. There was some indication that narrative evidence had a greater impact than statistical evidence on beliefs about the importance of lab testing and on knowledge. No other evidence of the differential effectiveness of either approach was found. No statistically significant effect was found on intent to adhere, or documented adherence to lab monitoring. Videos depicting a physician-patient dialogue about warfarin were effective in educating patients about anticoagulant medication, and had a positive impact on their beliefs. The use of narrative evidence in the form of patient anecdotes may be more effective than statistical evidence for some patient outcomes. Patients on oral anticoagulant therapy may benefit from periodic educational efforts reinforcing key medication safety information, even after initial education and ongoing monitoring. Incorporating patient anecdotes into physician-patient dialogues or educational materials may increase the effectiveness of the message.

Diagnostic accuracy of the clinical and CT findings for differentiating Kikuchi's disease and tuberculous lymphadenitis presenting with cervical lymphadenopathy.

PubMed

Baek, Hye Jin; Lee, Jeong Hyun; Lim, Hyun Kyung; Lee, Ha Young; Baek, Jung Hwan

2014-11-01

To determine the optimal clinical and CT findings for differentiating Kikuchi's disease (KD) and tuberculous lymphadenitis (TB) in patients presenting with cervical lymphadenopathy. From 2006 to 2010, 87 consecutive patients who were finally diagnosed with KD or TB were enrolled. Two radiologists performed independent analysis of contrast-enhanced neck CT images with regard to the involvement pattern, nodal or perinodal changes, and evidence of the previous infection. Significant clinical and CT findings of KD were determined by statistical analyses. Of the 87 patients, 27 (31%) were classified as having KD and 60 (69%) as having TB. Statistically significant findings of KD patients were younger age, presence of fever, involvement of ≥5 nodal levels or the bilateral neck, no or minimal nodal necrosis, marked perinodal infiltration, and no evidence of upper lung lesion or mediastinal lymphadenopathy. The presence of four or more statistically significant clinical and CT findings of KD had the largest area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (A z = 0.861; 95% confidence intervals 0.801, 0.909), with a sensitivity of 89% and specificity of 83%. CT can be a helpful tool for differentiating KD from TB, especially when it is combined with the clinical findings.

Robust hypothesis tests for detecting statistical evidence of two-dimensional and three-dimensional interactions in single-molecule measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calderon, Christopher P.; Weiss, Lucien E.; Moerner, W. E.

2014-05-01

Experimental advances have improved the two- (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) spatial resolution that can be extracted from in vivo single-molecule measurements. This enables researchers to quantitatively infer the magnitude and directionality of forces experienced by biomolecules in their native environment. Situations where such force information is relevant range from mitosis to directed transport of protein cargo along cytoskeletal structures. Models commonly applied to quantify single-molecule dynamics assume that effective forces and velocity in the x ,y (or x ,y,z) directions are statistically independent, but this assumption is physically unrealistic in many situations. We present a hypothesis testing approach capable of determining if there is evidence of statistical dependence between positional coordinates in experimentally measured trajectories; if the hypothesis of independence between spatial coordinates is rejected, then a new model accounting for 2D (3D) interactions can and should be considered. Our hypothesis testing technique is robust, meaning it can detect interactions, even if the noise statistics are not well captured by the model. The approach is demonstrated on control simulations and on experimental data (directed transport of intraflagellar transport protein 88 homolog in the primary cilium).

Statistical Data Editing in Scientific Articles.

PubMed

Habibzadeh, Farrokh

2017-07-01

Scientific journals are important scholarly forums for sharing research findings. Editors have important roles in safeguarding standards of scientific publication and should be familiar with correct presentation of results, among other core competencies. Editors do not have access to the raw data and should thus rely on clues in the submitted manuscripts. To identify probable errors, they should look for inconsistencies in presented results. Common statistical problems that can be picked up by a knowledgeable manuscript editor are discussed in this article. Manuscripts should contain a detailed section on statistical analyses of the data. Numbers should be reported with appropriate precisions. Standard error of the mean (SEM) should not be reported as an index of data dispersion. Mean (standard deviation [SD]) and median (interquartile range [IQR]) should be used for description of normally and non-normally distributed data, respectively. If possible, it is better to report 95% confidence interval (CI) for statistics, at least for main outcome variables. And, P values should be presented, and interpreted with caution, if there is a hypothesis. To advance knowledge and skills of their members, associations of journal editors are better to develop training courses on basic statistics and research methodology for non-experts. This would in turn improve research reporting and safeguard the body of scientific evidence. © 2017 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

Grammar Schools: Brief Flowering of Social Mobility?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barker, Bernard

2012-01-01

Grammar schools are increasingly remembered, especially by right-wing ideologues, as the agents of a "brief flowering" of post-war social mobility. This article presents statistical, documentary and interview evidence of secondary education in the eleven plus era, and finds nothing to justify the claim that selective schools produced a general…

How does new evidence change our estimates of probabilities? Carnap's formula revisited

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreinovich, Vladik; Quintana, Chris

1992-01-01

The formula originally proposed by R. Carnap in his analysis of induction is reviewed and its natural generalization is presented. A situation is considered where the probability of a certain event is determined without using standard statistical methods due to the lack of observation.

Evidence for Intact Memory-Guided Attention in School-Aged Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dixon, Matthew L.; Zelazo, Philip David; De Rosa, Eve

2010-01-01

Visual scenes contain many statistical regularities such as the likely identity and location of objects that are present; with experience, such regularities can be encoded and can ultimately facilitate the deployment of spatial attention to important locations. Memory-guided attention has been extensively examined in adults with the "contextual…

Commentary: Evidential Validity Versus Predictive Validity--The Need for Both

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montgomery, Alyssa; Dumont, Ron; Willis, John O.

2017-01-01

The articles presented in this Special Issue provide evidence for many statistically significant relationships among error scores obtained from the Kaufman Test of Educational Achievement, Third Edition (KTEA)-3 between various groups of students with and without disabilities. The data reinforce the importance of examiners looking beyond the…

Assessing the fit of site-occupancy models

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Bailey, L.L.

2004-01-01

Few species are likely to be so evident that they will always be detected at a site when present. Recently a model has been developed that enables estimation of the proportion of area occupied, when the target species is not detected with certainty. Here we apply this modeling approach to data collected on terrestrial salamanders in the Plethodon glutinosus complex in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA, and wish to address the question 'how accurately does the fitted model represent the data?' The goodness-of-fit of the model needs to be assessed in order to make accurate inferences. This article presents a method where a simple Pearson chi-square statistic is calculated and a parametric bootstrap procedure is used to determine whether the observed statistic is unusually large. We found evidence that the most global model considered provides a poor fit to the data, hence estimated an overdispersion factor to adjust model selection procedures and inflate standard errors. Two hypothetical datasets with known assumption violations are also analyzed, illustrating that the method may be used to guide researchers to making appropriate inferences. The results of a simulation study are presented to provide a broader view of the methods properties.

Empirical test of the performance of an acoustic-phonetic approach to forensic voice comparison under conditions similar to those of a real case.

PubMed

Enzinger, Ewald; Morrison, Geoffrey Stewart

2017-08-01

In a 2012 case in New South Wales, Australia, the identity of a speaker on several audio recordings was in question. Forensic voice comparison testimony was presented based on an auditory-acoustic-phonetic-spectrographic analysis. No empirical demonstration of the validity and reliability of the analytical methodology was presented. Unlike the admissibility standards in some other jurisdictions (e.g., US Federal Rule of Evidence 702 and the Daubert criteria, or England & Wales Criminal Practice Directions 19A), Australia's Unified Evidence Acts do not require demonstration of the validity and reliability of analytical methods and their implementation before testimony based upon them is presented in court. The present paper reports on empirical tests of the performance of an acoustic-phonetic-statistical forensic voice comparison system which exploited the same features as were the focus of the auditory-acoustic-phonetic-spectrographic analysis in the case, i.e., second-formant (F2) trajectories in /o/ tokens and mean fundamental frequency (f0). The tests were conducted under conditions similar to those in the case. The performance of the acoustic-phonetic-statistical system was very poor compared to that of an automatic system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal variations of volcanic eruption frequencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stothers, Richard B.

1989-01-01

Do volcanic eruptions have a tendency to occur more frequently in the months of May and June? Some past evidence suggests that they do. The present study, based on the new eruption catalog of Simkin et al.(1981), investigates the monthly statistics of the largest eruptions, grouped according to explosive magnitude, geographical latitude, and year. At the 2-delta level, no month-to-month variations in eruption frequency are found to be statistically significant. Examination of previously published month-to-month variations suggests that they, too, are not statistically significant. It is concluded that volcanism, at least averaged over large portions of the globe, is probably not periodic on a seasonal or annual time scale.

Philosophers assess randomized clinical trials: the need for dialogue.

PubMed

Miké, V

1989-09-01

In recent years a growing number of professional philosophers have joined in the controversy over ethical aspects of randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Morally questionable in their utilitarian approach, RCTs are claimed by some to be in direct violation of the second form of Kant's Categorical Imperative. But the arguments used in these critiques at times derive from a lack of insight into basic statistical procedures and the realities of the biomedical research process. Presented to physicians and other nonspecialists, including the lay public, such distortions can be harmful. Given the great complexity of statistical methodology and the anomalous nature of concepts of evidence, more sustained input into the interdisciplinary dialogue is needed from the statistical profession.

Passage relevance models for genomics search.

PubMed

Urbain, Jay; Frieder, Ophir; Goharian, Nazli

2009-03-19

We present a passage relevance model for integrating syntactic and semantic evidence of biomedical concepts and topics using a probabilistic graphical model. Component models of topics, concepts, terms, and document are represented as potential functions within a Markov Random Field. The probability of a passage being relevant to a biologist's information need is represented as the joint distribution across all potential functions. Relevance model feedback of top ranked passages is used to improve distributional estimates of query concepts and topics in context, and a dimensional indexing strategy is used for efficient aggregation of concept and term statistics. By integrating multiple sources of evidence including dependencies between topics, concepts, and terms, we seek to improve genomics literature passage retrieval precision. Using this model, we are able to demonstrate statistically significant improvements in retrieval precision using a large genomics literature corpus.

Power-up: A Reanalysis of 'Power Failure' in Neuroscience Using Mixture Modeling.

PubMed

Nord, Camilla L; Valton, Vincent; Wood, John; Roiser, Jonathan P

2017-08-23

Recently, evidence for endemically low statistical power has cast neuroscience findings into doubt. If low statistical power plagues neuroscience, then this reduces confidence in the reported effects. However, if statistical power is not uniformly low, then such blanket mistrust might not be warranted. Here, we provide a different perspective on this issue, analyzing data from an influential study reporting a median power of 21% across 49 meta-analyses (Button et al., 2013). We demonstrate, using Gaussian mixture modeling, that the sample of 730 studies included in that analysis comprises several subcomponents so the use of a single summary statistic is insufficient to characterize the nature of the distribution. We find that statistical power is extremely low for studies included in meta-analyses that reported a null result and that it varies substantially across subfields of neuroscience, with particularly low power in candidate gene association studies. Therefore, whereas power in neuroscience remains a critical issue, the notion that studies are systematically underpowered is not the full story: low power is far from a universal problem. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Recently, researchers across the biomedical and psychological sciences have become concerned with the reliability of results. One marker for reliability is statistical power: the probability of finding a statistically significant result given that the effect exists. Previous evidence suggests that statistical power is low across the field of neuroscience. Our results present a more comprehensive picture of statistical power in neuroscience: on average, studies are indeed underpowered-some very seriously so-but many studies show acceptable or even exemplary statistical power. We show that this heterogeneity in statistical power is common across most subfields in neuroscience. This new, more nuanced picture of statistical power in neuroscience could affect not only scientific understanding, but potentially policy and funding decisions for neuroscience research. Copyright © 2017 Nord, Valton et al.

A study of statistics anxiety levels of graduate dental hygiene students.

PubMed

Welch, Paul S; Jacks, Mary E; Smiley, Lynn A; Walden, Carolyn E; Clark, William D; Nguyen, Carol A

2015-02-01

In light of increased emphasis on evidence-based practice in the profession of dental hygiene, it is important that today's dental hygienist comprehend statistical measures to fully understand research articles, and thereby apply scientific evidence to practice. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate statistics anxiety among graduate dental hygiene students in the U.S. A web-based self-report, anonymous survey was emailed to directors of 17 MSDH programs in the U.S. with a request to distribute to graduate students. The survey collected data on statistics anxiety, sociodemographic characteristics and evidence-based practice. Statistic anxiety was assessed using the Statistical Anxiety Rating Scale. Study significance level was α=0.05. Only 8 of the 17 invited programs participated in the study. Statistical Anxiety Rating Scale data revealed graduate dental hygiene students experience low to moderate levels of statistics anxiety. Specifically, the level of anxiety on the Interpretation Anxiety factor indicated this population could struggle with making sense of scientific research. A decisive majority (92%) of students indicated statistics is essential for evidence-based practice and should be a required course for all dental hygienists. This study served to identify statistics anxiety in a previously unexplored population. The findings should be useful in both theory building and in practical applications. Furthermore, the results can be used to direct future research. Copyright © 2015 The American Dental Hygienists’ Association.

Lead exposure and eclampsia in Britain, 1883-1934.

PubMed

Troesken, Werner

2006-07-01

Eclampsia refers to a coma or seizure activity in a pregnant woman with no prior history of such activity. This paper presents a mix of historical and epidemiological evidence consistent with the hypothesis that chronic lead exposure is a predisposing factor for eclampsia. The historical evidence is based on research conducted by British physicians around 1900 showing that the geographic variation in eclampsia across England and Wales was correlated with lead levels in local drinking water supplies. A formal epidemiological analysis based on a data set of English and Welsh counties observed in 1883 corroborates the evidence presented by historical observers. In particular, the statistical results show that the death rate from eclampsia in counties with high-water-lead levels exceeded the death rate in counties with low-water-lead levels by a factor of 2.34 (95% CI: 1.54-3.14).

False-positive psychology: undisclosed flexibility in data collection and analysis allows presenting anything as significant.

PubMed

Simmons, Joseph P; Nelson, Leif D; Simonsohn, Uri

2011-11-01

In this article, we accomplish two things. First, we show that despite empirical psychologists' nominal endorsement of a low rate of false-positive findings (≤ .05), flexibility in data collection, analysis, and reporting dramatically increases actual false-positive rates. In many cases, a researcher is more likely to falsely find evidence that an effect exists than to correctly find evidence that it does not. We present computer simulations and a pair of actual experiments that demonstrate how unacceptably easy it is to accumulate (and report) statistically significant evidence for a false hypothesis. Second, we suggest a simple, low-cost, and straightforwardly effective disclosure-based solution to this problem. The solution involves six concrete requirements for authors and four guidelines for reviewers, all of which impose a minimal burden on the publication process.

The sumLINK statistic for genetic linkage analysis in the presence of heterogeneity.

PubMed

Christensen, G B; Knight, S; Camp, N J

2009-11-01

We present the "sumLINK" statistic--the sum of multipoint LOD scores for the subset of pedigrees with nominally significant linkage evidence at a given locus--as an alternative to common methods to identify susceptibility loci in the presence of heterogeneity. We also suggest the "sumLOD" statistic (the sum of positive multipoint LOD scores) as a companion to the sumLINK. sumLINK analysis identifies genetic regions of extreme consistency across pedigrees without regard to negative evidence from unlinked or uninformative pedigrees. Significance is determined by an innovative permutation procedure based on genome shuffling that randomizes linkage information across pedigrees. This procedure for generating the empirical null distribution may be useful for other linkage-based statistics as well. Using 500 genome-wide analyses of simulated null data, we show that the genome shuffling procedure results in the correct type 1 error rates for both the sumLINK and sumLOD. The power of the statistics was tested using 100 sets of simulated genome-wide data from the alternative hypothesis from GAW13. Finally, we illustrate the statistics in an analysis of 190 aggressive prostate cancer pedigrees from the International Consortium for Prostate Cancer Genetics, where we identified a new susceptibility locus. We propose that the sumLINK and sumLOD are ideal for collaborative projects and meta-analyses, as they do not require any sharing of identifiable data between contributing institutions. Further, loci identified with the sumLINK have good potential for gene localization via statistical recombinant mapping, as, by definition, several linked pedigrees contribute to each peak.

Infants with Williams syndrome detect statistical regularities in continuous speech.

PubMed

Cashon, Cara H; Ha, Oh-Ryeong; Graf Estes, Katharine; Saffran, Jenny R; Mervis, Carolyn B

2016-09-01

Williams syndrome (WS) is a rare genetic disorder associated with delays in language and cognitive development. The reasons for the language delay are unknown. Statistical learning is a domain-general mechanism recruited for early language acquisition. In the present study, we investigated whether infants with WS were able to detect the statistical structure in continuous speech. Eighteen 8- to 20-month-olds with WS were familiarized with 2min of a continuous stream of synthesized nonsense words; the statistical structure of the speech was the only cue to word boundaries. They were tested on their ability to discriminate statistically-defined "words" and "part-words" (which crossed word boundaries) in the artificial language. Despite significant cognitive and language delays, infants with WS were able to detect the statistical regularities in the speech stream. These findings suggest that an inability to track the statistical properties of speech is unlikely to be the primary basis for the delays in the onset of language observed in infants with WS. These results provide the first evidence of statistical learning by infants with developmental delays. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of EEG functional connectivity during statistical learning.

PubMed

Tóth, Brigitta; Janacsek, Karolina; Takács, Ádám; Kóbor, Andrea; Zavecz, Zsófia; Nemeth, Dezso

2017-10-01

Statistical learning is a fundamental mechanism of the brain, which extracts and represents regularities of our environment. Statistical learning is crucial in predictive processing, and in the acquisition of perceptual, motor, cognitive, and social skills. Although previous studies have revealed competitive neurocognitive processes underlying statistical learning, the neural communication of the related brain regions (functional connectivity, FC) has not yet been investigated. The present study aimed to fill this gap by investigating FC networks that promote statistical learning in humans. Young adults (N=28) performed a statistical learning task while 128-channels EEG was acquired. The task involved probabilistic sequences, which enabled to measure incidental/implicit learning of conditional probabilities. Phase synchronization in seven frequency bands was used to quantify FC between cortical regions during the first, second, and third periods of the learning task, respectively. Here we show that statistical learning is negatively correlated with FC of the anterior brain regions in slow (theta) and fast (beta) oscillations. These negative correlations increased as the learning progressed. Our findings provide evidence that dynamic antagonist brain networks serve a hallmark of statistical learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evidence for a Global Sampling Process in Extraction of Summary Statistics of Item Sizes in a Set.

PubMed

Tokita, Midori; Ueda, Sachiyo; Ishiguchi, Akira

2016-01-01

Several studies have shown that our visual system may construct a "summary statistical representation" over groups of visual objects. Although there is a general understanding that human observers can accurately represent sets of a variety of features, many questions on how summary statistics, such as an average, are computed remain unanswered. This study investigated sampling properties of visual information used by human observers to extract two types of summary statistics of item sets, average and variance. We presented three models of ideal observers to extract the summary statistics: a global sampling model without sampling noise, global sampling model with sampling noise, and limited sampling model. We compared the performance of an ideal observer of each model with that of human observers using statistical efficiency analysis. Results suggest that summary statistics of items in a set may be computed without representing individual items, which makes it possible to discard the limited sampling account. Moreover, the extraction of summary statistics may not necessarily require the representation of individual objects with focused attention when the sets of items are larger than 4.

Dynamic scaling in natural swarms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavagna, Andrea; Conti, Daniele; Creato, Chiara; Del Castello, Lorenzo; Giardina, Irene; Grigera, Tomas S.; Melillo, Stefania; Parisi, Leonardo; Viale, Massimiliano

2017-09-01

Collective behaviour in biological systems presents theoretical challenges beyond the borders of classical statistical physics. The lack of concepts such as scaling and renormalization is particularly problematic, as it forces us to negotiate details whose relevance is often hard to assess. In an attempt to improve this situation, we present here experimental evidence of the emergence of dynamic scaling laws in natural swarms of midges. We find that spatio-temporal correlation functions in different swarms can be rescaled by using a single characteristic time, which grows with the correlation length with a dynamical critical exponent z ~ 1, a value not found in any other standard statistical model. To check whether out-of-equilibrium effects may be responsible for this anomalous exponent, we run simulations of the simplest model of self-propelled particles and find z ~ 2, suggesting that natural swarms belong to a novel dynamic universality class. This conclusion is strengthened by experimental evidence of the presence of non-dissipative modes in the relaxation, indicating that previously overlooked inertial effects are needed to describe swarm dynamics. The absence of a purely dissipative regime suggests that natural swarms undergo a near-critical censorship of hydrodynamics.

Towards evidence-based computational statistics: lessons from clinical research on the role and design of real-data benchmark studies.

PubMed

Boulesteix, Anne-Laure; Wilson, Rory; Hapfelmeier, Alexander

2017-09-09

The goal of medical research is to develop interventions that are in some sense superior, with respect to patient outcome, to interventions currently in use. Similarly, the goal of research in methodological computational statistics is to develop data analysis tools that are themselves superior to the existing tools. The methodology of the evaluation of medical interventions continues to be discussed extensively in the literature and it is now well accepted that medicine should be at least partly "evidence-based". Although we statisticians are convinced of the importance of unbiased, well-thought-out study designs and evidence-based approaches in the context of clinical research, we tend to ignore these principles when designing our own studies for evaluating statistical methods in the context of our methodological research. In this paper, we draw an analogy between clinical trials and real-data-based benchmarking experiments in methodological statistical science, with datasets playing the role of patients and methods playing the role of medical interventions. Through this analogy, we suggest directions for improvement in the design and interpretation of studies which use real data to evaluate statistical methods, in particular with respect to dataset inclusion criteria and the reduction of various forms of bias. More generally, we discuss the concept of "evidence-based" statistical research, its limitations and its impact on the design and interpretation of real-data-based benchmark experiments. We suggest that benchmark studies-a method of assessment of statistical methods using real-world datasets-might benefit from adopting (some) concepts from evidence-based medicine towards the goal of more evidence-based statistical research.

On the limits of statistical learning: Intertrial contextual cueing is confined to temporally close contingencies.

PubMed

Thomas, Cyril; Didierjean, André; Maquestiaux, François; Goujon, Annabelle

2018-04-12

Since the seminal study by Chun and Jiang (Cognitive Psychology, 36, 28-71, 1998), a large body of research based on the contextual-cueing paradigm has shown that the cognitive system is capable of extracting statistical contingencies from visual environments. Most of these studies have focused on how individuals learn regularities found within an intratrial temporal window: A context predicts the target position within a given trial. However, Ono, Jiang, and Kawahara (Journal of Experimental Psychology, 31, 703-712, 2005) provided evidence of an intertrial implicit-learning effect when a distractor configuration in preceding trials N - 1 predicted the target location in trials N. The aim of the present study was to gain further insight into this effect by examining whether it occurs when predictive relationships are impeded by interfering task-relevant noise (Experiments 2 and 3) or by a long delay (Experiments 1, 4, and 5). Our results replicated the intertrial contextual-cueing effect, which occurred in the condition of temporally close contingencies. However, there was no evidence of integration across long-range spatiotemporal contingencies, suggesting a temporal limitation of statistical learning.

Incorporating oximeter analyses to investigate synchronies in heart rate while teaching and learning about race

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amat, Arnau; Zapata, Corinna; Alexakos, Konstantinos; Pride, Leah D.; Paylor-Smith, Christian; Hernandez, Matthew

2016-09-01

In this paper, we look closely at two events selected through event-oriented inquiry that were part of a classroom presentation on race. The first event was a provocative discussion about Mark Twain's ( Pudd'nhead Wilson, Harper, New York, 1899) and passing for being White. The other was a discussion on the use of the N-word. Grounded in authentic inquiry, we use ethnographic narrative, cogenerative dialogues, and video and oximeter data analyses as part of a multi-ontological approach for studying emotions. Statistical analysis of oximeter data shows statistically significant heart rate synchrony among two of the coteachers during their presentations, providing evidence of emotional synchrony, resonance, and social and emotional contagion.

Statistical Analysis of Deflation in Covariance and Resultant Pc Values for AQUA, AURA and TERRA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hasan, Syed O.

2016-01-01

This presentation will display statistical analysis performed for raw conjunction CDMs received for the EOS Aqua, Aura and Terra satellites within the period of February 2015 through July 2016. The analysis performed indicates a discernable deflation in covariance calculated at the JSpOC after the utilization of the dynamic drag consider parameter was implemented operationally in May 2015. As a result, the overall diminution in the conjunction plane intersection of the primary and secondary objects appears to be leading to reduced probability of collision (Pc) values for these conjunction events. This presentation also displays evidence for this theory with analysis of Pc trending plots using data calculated by the SpaceNav CRMS system.

An analysis of the relationship of flight hours and naval rotary wing aviation mishaps

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

evidence to support indicators used for sequestration, high flight hours, night flight, and overwater flight had statistically significant effects on...estimates found enough evidence to support indicators used for sequestration, high flight hours, night flight, and overwater flight had statistically ...38 C. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ................................................................38 D

Theory of atomic spectral emission intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yngström, Sten

1994-07-01

The theoretical derivation of a new spectral line intensity formula for atomic radiative emission is presented. The theory is based on first principles of quantum physics, electrodynamics, and statistical physics. Quantum rules lead to revision of the conventional principle of local thermal equilibrium of matter and radiation. Study of electrodynamics suggests absence of spectral emission from fractions of the numbers of atoms and ions in a plasma due to radiative inhibition caused by electromagnetic force fields. Statistical probability methods are extended by the statement: A macroscopic physical system develops in the most probable of all conceivable ways consistent with the constraining conditions for the system. The crucial role of statistical physics in transforming quantum logic into common sense logic is stressed. The theory is strongly supported by experimental evidence.

Economic fluctuations and statistical physics: Quantifying extremely rare and less rare events in finance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanley, H. E.; Gabaix, Xavier; Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran; Plerou, Vasiliki

2007-08-01

One challenge of economics is that the systems treated by these sciences have no perfect metronome in time and no perfect spatial architecture-crystalline or otherwise. Nonetheless, as if by magic, out of nothing but randomness one finds remarkably fine-tuned processes in time. We present an overview of recent research joining practitioners of economic theory and statistical physics to try to better understand puzzles regarding economic fluctuations. One of these puzzles is how to describe outliers, phenomena that lie outside of patterns of statistical regularity. We review evidence consistent with the possibility that such outliers may not exist. This possibility is supported by recent analysis of databases containing information about each trade of every stock.

An Extension of the Chi-Square Procedure for Non-NORMAL Statistics, with Application to Solar Neutrino Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sturrock, P. A.

2008-01-01

Using the chi-square statistic, one may conveniently test whether a series of measurements of a variable are consistent with a constant value. However, that test is predicated on the assumption that the appropriate probability distribution function (pdf) is normal in form. This requirement is usually not satisfied by experimental measurements of the solar neutrino flux. This article presents an extension of the chi-square procedure that is valid for any form of the pdf. This procedure is applied to the GALLEX-GNO dataset, and it is shown that the results are in good agreement with the results of Monte Carlo simulations. Whereas application of the standard chi-square test to symmetrized data yields evidence significant at the 1% level for variability of the solar neutrino flux, application of the extended chi-square test to the unsymmetrized data yields only weak evidence (significant at the 4% level) of variability.

Balneotherapy for osteoarthritis. A cochrane review.

PubMed

Verhagen, Arianne; Bierma-Zeinstra, Sita; Lambeck, Johan; Cardoso, Jefferson Rosa; de Bie, Rob; Boers, Maarten; de Vet, Henrica C W

2008-06-01

Balneotherapy (or spa therapy, mineral baths) for patients with arthritis is one of the oldest forms of therapy. We assessed effectiveness of balneotherapy for patients with osteoarthritis (OA). We performed a broad search strategy to retrieve eligible studies, selecting randomized controlled trials comparing balneotherapy with any intervention or with no intervention. Two authors independently assessed quality and extracted data. Disagreements were solved by consensus. In the event of clinical heterogeneity or lack of data we refrained from statistical pooling. Seven trials (498 patients) were included in this review: one performed an intention-to-treat analysis, 2 provided data for our own analysis, and one reported a "quality of life" outcome. We found silver-level evidence of mineral baths compared to no treatment (effect sizes 0.34-1.82). Adverse events were not measured or found in included trials. We found silver-level evidence concerning the beneficial effects of mineral baths compared to no treatment. Of all other balneological treatments, no clear effects were found. However, the scientific evidence is weak because of the poor methodological quality and the absence of an adequate statistical analysis and data presentation.

Risk, statistical inference, and the law of evidence: the use of epidemiological data in toxic tort cases.

PubMed

Brannigan, V M; Bier, V M; Berg, C

1992-09-01

Toxic torts are product liability cases dealing with alleged injuries due to chemical or biological hazards such as radiation, thalidomide, or Agent Orange. Toxic tort cases typically rely more heavily than other product liability cases on indirect or statistical proof of injury. There have been numerous theoretical analyses of statistical proof of injury in toxic tort cases. However, there have been only a handful of actual legal decisions regarding the use of such statistical evidence, and most of those decisions have been inconclusive. Recently, a major case from the Fifth Circuit, involving allegations that Benedectin (a morning sickness drug) caused birth defects, was decided entirely on the basis of statistical inference. This paper examines both the conceptual basis of that decision, and also the relationships among statistical inference, scientific evidence, and the rules of product liability in general.

Evidence, temperature, and the laws of thermodynamics.

PubMed

Vieland, Veronica J

2014-01-01

A primary purpose of statistical analysis in genetics is the measurement of the strength of evidence for or against hypotheses. As with any type of measurement, a properly calibrated measurement scale is necessary if we want to be able to meaningfully compare degrees of evidence across genetic data sets, across different types of genetic studies and/or across distinct experimental modalities. In previous papers in this journal and elsewhere, my colleagues and I have argued that geneticists ought to care about the scale on which statistical evidence is measured, and we have proposed the Kelvin temperature scale as a template for a context-independent measurement scale for statistical evidence. Moreover, we have claimed that, mathematically speaking, evidence and temperature may be one and the same thing. On first blush, this might seem absurd. Temperature is a property of systems following certain laws of nature (in particular, the 1st and 2nd Law of Thermodynamics) involving very physical quantities (e.g., energy) and processes (e.g., mechanical work). But what do the laws of thermodynamics have to do with statistical systems? Here I address that question. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

An Inferential Confidence Interval Method of Establishing Statistical Equivalence that Corrects Tryon's (2001) Reduction Factor

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tryon, Warren W.; Lewis, Charles

2008-01-01

Evidence of group matching frequently takes the form of a nonsignificant test of statistical difference. Theoretical hypotheses of no difference are also tested in this way. These practices are flawed in that null hypothesis statistical testing provides evidence against the null hypothesis and failing to reject H[subscript 0] is not evidence…

Assessing the Development of Educational Research Literacy: The Effect of Courses on Research Methods in Studies of Educational Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Groß Ophoff, Jana; Schladitz, Sandra; Leuders, Juliane; Leuders, Timo; Wirtz, Markus A.

2015-01-01

The ability to purposefully access, reflect, and use evidence from educational research (Educational Research Literacy) is expected of future professionals in educational practice. Based on the presented conceptual framework, a test instrument was developed to assess the different competency aspects: Information Literacy, Statistical Literacy, and…

InfoSyll: A Syllabary Providing Statistical Information on Phonological and Orthographic Syllables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chetail, Fabienne; Mathey, Stephanie

2010-01-01

There is now a growing body of evidence in various languages supporting the claim that syllables are functional units of visual word processing. In the perspective of modeling the processing of polysyllabic words and the activation of syllables, current studies investigate syllabic effects with subtle manipulations. We present here a syllabary of…

The Baby Boomer Generation--Impact on Public Libraries: Theoretical and Practical Evidence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kahlert, Maureen V.

This paper discusses the impact of the Baby Boomer generation on public libraries. The paper has five main objectives: (1) to provide a statistical and demographic profile of the Baby Boomers at the local, state, and national levels within Australia; (2) to provide characteristics of the Baby Boomer generation; (3) to present comparative results…

Teaching an Application of Bayes' Rule for Legal Decision-Making: Measuring the Strength of Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Satake, Eiki; Murray, Amy Vashlishan

2014-01-01

Although Bayesian methodology has become a powerful approach for describing uncertainty, it has largely been avoided in undergraduate statistics education. Here we demonstrate that one can present Bayes' Rule in the classroom through a hypothetical, yet realistic, legal scenario designed to spur the interests of students in introductory- and…

Affirmative Action Survey: Non Teacher-Certificated Female Staff. Prepared for the Non Teacher-Certificated Affirmative Action Advisory Committee.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peebles, Dorothy

This report presents findings of a survey of female staff members (secretaries, administrative assistants, clerks, matrons, psychoeducational consultants, teachers' aides, etc) in order to gain statistical evidence on which to build programs and formulate recommendations to improve their working conditions. Questionnaires were used in the survey…

A statistical survey of ultralow-frequency wave power and polarization in the Hermean magnetosphere.

PubMed

James, Matthew K; Bunce, Emma J; Yeoman, Timothy K; Imber, Suzanne M; Korth, Haje

2016-09-01

We present a statistical survey of ultralow-frequency wave activity within the Hermean magnetosphere using the entire MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging magnetometer data set. This study is focused upon wave activity with frequencies <0.5 Hz, typically below local ion gyrofrequencies, in order to determine if field line resonances similar to those observed in the terrestrial magnetosphere may be present. Wave activity is mapped to the magnetic equatorial plane of the magnetosphere and to magnetic latitude and local times on Mercury using the KT14 magnetic field model. Wave power mapped to the planetary surface indicates the average location of the polar cap boundary. Compressional wave power is dominant throughout most of the magnetosphere, while azimuthal wave power close to the dayside magnetopause provides evidence that interactions between the magnetosheath and the magnetopause such as the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability may be driving wave activity. Further evidence of this is found in the average wave polarization: left-handed polarized waves dominate the dawnside magnetosphere, while right-handed polarized waves dominate the duskside. A possible field line resonance event is also presented, where a time-of-flight calculation is used to provide an estimated local plasma mass density of ∼240 amu cm -3 .

Is Statistical Learning Constrained by Lower Level Perceptual Organization?

PubMed Central

Emberson, Lauren L.; Liu, Ran; Zevin, Jason D.

2013-01-01

In order for statistical information to aid in complex developmental processes such as language acquisition, learning from higher-order statistics (e.g. across successive syllables in a speech stream to support segmentation) must be possible while perceptual abilities (e.g. speech categorization) are still developing. The current study examines how perceptual organization interacts with statistical learning. Adult participants were presented with multiple exemplars from novel, complex sound categories designed to reflect some of the spectral complexity and variability of speech. These categories were organized into sequential pairs and presented such that higher-order statistics, defined based on sound categories, could support stream segmentation. Perceptual similarity judgments and multi-dimensional scaling revealed that participants only perceived three perceptual clusters of sounds and thus did not distinguish the four experimenter-defined categories, creating a tension between lower level perceptual organization and higher-order statistical information. We examined whether the resulting pattern of learning is more consistent with statistical learning being “bottom-up,” constrained by the lower levels of organization, or “top-down,” such that higher-order statistical information of the stimulus stream takes priority over the perceptual organization, and perhaps influences perceptual organization. We consistently find evidence that learning is constrained by perceptual organization. Moreover, participants generalize their learning to novel sounds that occupy a similar perceptual space, suggesting that statistical learning occurs based on regions of or clusters in perceptual space. Overall, these results reveal a constraint on learning of sound sequences, such that statistical information is determined based on lower level organization. These findings have important implications for the role of statistical learning in language acquisition. PMID:23618755

Validity evidence as a key marker of quality of technical skill assessment in OTL-HNS.

PubMed

Labbé, Mathilde; Young, Meredith; Nguyen, Lily H P

2018-01-13

Quality monitoring of assessment practices should be a priority in all residency programs. Validity evidence is one of the main hallmarks of assessment quality and should be collected to support the interpretation and use of assessment data. Our objective was to identify, synthesize, and present the validity evidence reported supporting different technical skill assessment tools in otolaryngology-head and neck surgery (OTL-HNS). We performed a secondary analysis of data generated through a systematic review of all published tools for assessing technical skills in OTL-HNS (n = 16). For each tool, we coded validity evidence according to the five types of evidence described by the American Educational Research Association's interpretation of Messick's validity framework. Descriptive statistical analyses were conducted. All 16 tools included in our analysis were supported by internal structure and relationship to variables validity evidence. Eleven articles presented evidence supporting content. Response process was discussed only in one article, and no study reported on evidence exploring consequences. We present the validity evidence reported for 16 rater-based tools that could be used for work-based assessment of OTL-HNS residents in the operating room. The articles included in our review were consistently deficient in evidence for response process and consequences. Rater-based assessment tools that support high-stakes decisions that impact the learner and programs should include several sources of validity evidence. Thus, use of any assessment should be done with careful consideration of the context-specific validity evidence supporting score interpretation, and we encourage deliberate continual assessment quality-monitoring. NA. Laryngoscope, 2018. © 2018 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Effectiveness of Exercise on Functional Mobility in Adults with Cerebral Palsy: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Lawrence, Hillary; Hills, Sara; Kline, Nicole; Weems, Kyra

2016-01-01

Purpose: We identified evidence evaluating the effect of exercise on functional mobility in adults (aged 18 y or older) with cerebral palsy (CP). Method: An exhaustive search was conducted using the electronic databases PubMed, MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, SPORTDiscus, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from the earliest available evidence (1975) to the present (January 2016) for studies whose participants were ambulatory adults with CP receiving conservative treatment to address functional mobility limitations. Two independent reviewers agreed on the eligibility, inclusion, and level of evidence of each study. The Maastricht-Amsterdam List (MAL) was used to assess evidence quality. Results: Five of the six studies included were randomized controlled trials, and one was a pre–post case series. Interventions included whole-body vibration, treadmill training without body-weight support, rhythmic auditory stimulation, dynamic balance and gait activities, progressive resistance training, and interactive serious gaming for balance. All studies were considered high quality, as indicated by their MAL scores. Four studies showed no statistical difference and trivial effect sizes between the intervention and the control group. Rhythmic auditory stimulation and interactive serious gaming were found to be statistically significant in benefiting adults with CP. Conclusions: Evidence of the effect of exercise on functional mobility for ambulatory adults with CP is lacking. A need exists for quality research to determine the best interventions for adults with CP to maximize functional mobility. PMID:27904240

Numerical test of the Edwards conjecture shows that all packings are equally probable at jamming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martiniani, Stefano; Schrenk, K. Julian; Ramola, Kabir; Chakraborty, Bulbul; Frenkel, Daan

2017-09-01

In the late 1980s, Sam Edwards proposed a possible statistical-mechanical framework to describe the properties of disordered granular materials. A key assumption underlying the theory was that all jammed packings are equally likely. In the intervening years it has never been possible to test this bold hypothesis directly. Here we present simulations that provide direct evidence that at the unjamming point, all packings of soft repulsive particles are equally likely, even though generically, jammed packings are not. Typically, jammed granular systems are observed precisely at the unjamming point since grains are not very compressible. Our results therefore support Edwards’ original conjecture. We also present evidence that at unjamming the configurational entropy of the system is maximal.

Assessing Attitudes towards Statistics among Medical Students: Psychometric Properties of the Serbian Version of the Survey of Attitudes Towards Statistics (SATS)

PubMed Central

Stanisavljevic, Dejana; Trajkovic, Goran; Marinkovic, Jelena; Bukumiric, Zoran; Cirkovic, Andja; Milic, Natasa

2014-01-01

Background Medical statistics has become important and relevant for future doctors, enabling them to practice evidence based medicine. Recent studies report that students’ attitudes towards statistics play an important role in their statistics achievements. The aim of the study was to test the psychometric properties of the Serbian version of the Survey of Attitudes Towards Statistics (SATS) in order to acquire a valid instrument to measure attitudes inside the Serbian educational context. Methods The validation study was performed on a cohort of 417 medical students who were enrolled in an obligatory introductory statistics course. The SATS adaptation was based on an internationally accepted methodology for translation and cultural adaptation. Psychometric properties of the Serbian version of the SATS were analyzed through the examination of factorial structure and internal consistency. Results Most medical students held positive attitudes towards statistics. The average total SATS score was above neutral (4.3±0.8), and varied from 1.9 to 6.2. Confirmatory factor analysis validated the six-factor structure of the questionnaire (Affect, Cognitive Competence, Value, Difficulty, Interest and Effort). Values for fit indices TLI (0.940) and CFI (0.961) were above the cut-off of ≥0.90. The RMSEA value of 0.064 (0.051–0.078) was below the suggested value of ≤0.08. Cronbach’s alpha of the entire scale was 0.90, indicating scale reliability. In a multivariate regression model, self-rating of ability in mathematics and current grade point average were significantly associated with the total SATS score after adjusting for age and gender. Conclusion Present study provided the evidence for the appropriate metric properties of the Serbian version of SATS. Confirmatory factor analysis validated the six-factor structure of the scale. The SATS might be reliable and a valid instrument for identifying medical students’ attitudes towards statistics in the Serbian educational context. PMID:25405489

Assessing attitudes towards statistics among medical students: psychometric properties of the Serbian version of the Survey of Attitudes Towards Statistics (SATS).

PubMed

Stanisavljevic, Dejana; Trajkovic, Goran; Marinkovic, Jelena; Bukumiric, Zoran; Cirkovic, Andja; Milic, Natasa

2014-01-01

Medical statistics has become important and relevant for future doctors, enabling them to practice evidence based medicine. Recent studies report that students' attitudes towards statistics play an important role in their statistics achievements. The aim of the study was to test the psychometric properties of the Serbian version of the Survey of Attitudes Towards Statistics (SATS) in order to acquire a valid instrument to measure attitudes inside the Serbian educational context. The validation study was performed on a cohort of 417 medical students who were enrolled in an obligatory introductory statistics course. The SATS adaptation was based on an internationally accepted methodology for translation and cultural adaptation. Psychometric properties of the Serbian version of the SATS were analyzed through the examination of factorial structure and internal consistency. Most medical students held positive attitudes towards statistics. The average total SATS score was above neutral (4.3±0.8), and varied from 1.9 to 6.2. Confirmatory factor analysis validated the six-factor structure of the questionnaire (Affect, Cognitive Competence, Value, Difficulty, Interest and Effort). Values for fit indices TLI (0.940) and CFI (0.961) were above the cut-off of ≥0.90. The RMSEA value of 0.064 (0.051-0.078) was below the suggested value of ≤0.08. Cronbach's alpha of the entire scale was 0.90, indicating scale reliability. In a multivariate regression model, self-rating of ability in mathematics and current grade point average were significantly associated with the total SATS score after adjusting for age and gender. Present study provided the evidence for the appropriate metric properties of the Serbian version of SATS. Confirmatory factor analysis validated the six-factor structure of the scale. The SATS might be reliable and a valid instrument for identifying medical students' attitudes towards statistics in the Serbian educational context.

Comment on "The effect of same-sex marriage laws on different-sex marriage: evidence from the Netherlands".

PubMed

Dinno, Alexis

2014-12-01

In the recent Demography article titled "The Effect of Same-Sex Marriage Laws on Different-Sex Marriage: Evidence From the Netherlands," Trandafir attempted to answer the question, Are rates of opposite sex marriage affected by legal recognition of same-sex marriages? The results of his approach to statistical inference-looking for evidence of a difference in rates of opposite-sex marriage-provide an absence of evidence of such effects. However, the validity of his conclusion of no causal relationship between same-sex marriage laws and rates of opposite-sex marriage is threatened by the fact that Trandafir did not also look for equivalence in rates of opposite-sex marriage in order to provide evidence of an absence of such an effect. Equivalence tests in combination with difference tests are introduced and presented in this article as a more valid inferential approach to the substantive question Trandafir attempted to answer.

An evaluation of the quality of statistical design and analysis of published medical research: results from a systematic survey of general orthopaedic journals.

PubMed

Parsons, Nick R; Price, Charlotte L; Hiskens, Richard; Achten, Juul; Costa, Matthew L

2012-04-25

The application of statistics in reported research in trauma and orthopaedic surgery has become ever more important and complex. Despite the extensive use of statistical analysis, it is still a subject which is often not conceptually well understood, resulting in clear methodological flaws and inadequate reporting in many papers. A detailed statistical survey sampled 100 representative orthopaedic papers using a validated questionnaire that assessed the quality of the trial design and statistical analysis methods. The survey found evidence of failings in study design, statistical methodology and presentation of the results. Overall, in 17% (95% confidence interval; 10-26%) of the studies investigated the conclusions were not clearly justified by the results, in 39% (30-49%) of studies a different analysis should have been undertaken and in 17% (10-26%) a different analysis could have made a difference to the overall conclusions. It is only by an improved dialogue between statistician, clinician, reviewer and journal editor that the failings in design methodology and analysis highlighted by this survey can be addressed.

Statistical physics and economic fluctuations: do outliers exist?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanley, H. Eugene

2003-02-01

We present an overview of recent research applying ideas of statistical physics to try to better understand puzzles regarding economic fluctuations. One of these puzzles is how to describe outliers, phenomena that lie outside of patterns of statistical regularity. We review evidence consistent with the possibility that such outliers may not exist. This possibility is supported by recent analysis by Plerou et al. of a database containing the bid, ask, and sale price of each trade of every stock. Further, the data support the picture of economic fluctuations, due to Plerou et al., in which a financial market alternates between being in an “equilibrium phase” where market behavior is split roughly equally between buying and selling, and an “out-of-equilibrium phase” where the market is mainly either buying or selling.

Taxes in a Labor Supply Model with Joint Wage-Hours Determination.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosen, Harvey S.

1976-01-01

Payroll and progressive income taxes play an enormous role in the American fiscal system. The purpose of this study is to present some econometric evidence on the effects of taxes on married women, a group of growing importance in the American labor force. A testable model of labor supply is developed which permits statistical estimation of a…

"People Can Go against the Government": Risk-Based Decision Making and High School Students' Concepts of Society

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radakovic, Nenad

2015-01-01

Research in mathematics education stresses the importance of content knowledge in solving authentic tasks in statistics and in risk-based decision making. Existing research supports the claim that students rely on content knowledge and context expertise to make sense of data. In this article, however, I present evidence that the relationship…

The Contradictory Effect of the "Global" on the "Local": Japanese Behaviour and Attitudes towards English Use in Local Contexts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Terasawa, Takunori

2018-01-01

This paper aims to establish that globalised social and linguistic changes have a more complicated impact on local behaviours and attitudes than is believed. Based on statistical analysis of nationally representative surveys in Japan, the paper presents evidence against the following two propositions: (1) globalisation increases local demand for…

ORD VI-Research Duplex and Wheeler Building, Indianapolis- Summary of Evidence to Date: Temporal Variability in Long-term Mitigation Performance and Before Mitigation: What Causes It?

EPA Science Inventory

We will present observations and statistical analysis on indoor air and soil gas data, collected over four years (including parts of five winter seasons) along with data on meteorological and hydrological variations at an unoccupied pre-1920 duplex. The monitoring program has now...

The 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake - a human-caused event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, C. D.

2013-12-01

A catalog of global human-caused earthquakes shows statistical evidence that the triggering of earthquakes by large-scale geoengineering activities depends on geological and tectonic constrains (in Klose 2013). Such geoengineering activities also include the filling of water reservoirs. This presentation illuminates mechanical and statistical aspects of the 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in light of the hypothesis of being NOT human-caused. However, available data suggest that the Wenchuan earthquake was triggered by the filling of the Zipungpu water reservoir 30 months prior to the mainshock. The reservoir spatially extended parallel and near to the main Beichuan fault zone in a highly stressed reverse fault regime. It is mechanically evident that reverse faults tend to be very trigger-sensitive due to mass shifts (static loads) that occur on the surface of the Earth's crust. These circumstances made a triggering of a seismic event of this magnitude at this location possible (in Klose 2008, 2012). The data show that the Wenchuan earthquake is not an outlier. From a statistical view point, the earthquake falls into the upper range of the family of reverse fault earthquakes that were caused by humans worldwide.

Exploring the practicing-connections hypothesis: using gesture to support coordination of ideas in understanding a complex statistical concept.

PubMed

Son, Ji Y; Ramos, Priscilla; DeWolf, Melissa; Loftus, William; Stigler, James W

2018-01-01

In this article, we begin to lay out a framework and approach for studying how students come to understand complex concepts in rich domains. Grounded in theories of embodied cognition, we advance the view that understanding of complex concepts requires students to practice, over time, the coordination of multiple concepts, and the connection of this system of concepts to situations in the world. Specifically, we explore the role that a teacher's gesture might play in supporting students' coordination of two concepts central to understanding in the domain of statistics: mean and standard deviation. In Study 1 we show that university students who have just taken a statistics course nevertheless have difficulty taking both mean and standard deviation into account when thinking about a statistical scenario. In Study 2 we show that presenting the same scenario with an accompanying gesture to represent variation significantly impacts students' interpretation of the scenario. Finally, in Study 3 we present evidence that instructional videos on the internet fail to leverage gesture as a means of facilitating understanding of complex concepts. Taken together, these studies illustrate an approach to translating current theories of cognition into principles that can guide instructional design.

Observational Word Learning: Beyond Propose-But-Verify and Associative Bean Counting.

PubMed

Roembke, Tanja; McMurray, Bob

2016-04-01

Learning new words is difficult. In any naming situation, there are multiple possible interpretations of a novel word. Recent approaches suggest that learners may solve this problem by tracking co-occurrence statistics between words and referents across multiple naming situations (e.g. Yu & Smith, 2007), overcoming the ambiguity in any one situation. Yet, there remains debate around the underlying mechanisms. We conducted two experiments in which learners acquired eight word-object mappings using cross-situational statistics while eye-movements were tracked. These addressed four unresolved questions regarding the learning mechanism. First, eye-movements during learning showed evidence that listeners maintain multiple hypotheses for a given word and bring them all to bear in the moment of naming. Second, trial-by-trial analyses of accuracy suggested that listeners accumulate continuous statistics about word/object mappings, over and above prior hypotheses they have about a word. Third, consistent, probabilistic context can impede learning, as false associations between words and highly co-occurring referents are formed. Finally, a number of factors not previously considered in prior analysis impact observational word learning: knowledge of the foils, spatial consistency of the target object, and the number of trials between presentations of the same word. This evidence suggests that observational word learning may derive from a combination of gradual statistical or associative learning mechanisms and more rapid real-time processes such as competition, mutual exclusivity and even inference or hypothesis testing.

The Use of Cronbach's Alpha When Developing and Reporting Research Instruments in Science Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taber, Keith S.

2017-06-01

Cronbach's alpha is a statistic commonly quoted by authors to demonstrate that tests and scales that have been constructed or adopted for research projects are fit for purpose. Cronbach's alpha is regularly adopted in studies in science education: it was referred to in 69 different papers published in 4 leading science education journals in a single year (2015)—usually as a measure of reliability. This article explores how this statistic is used in reporting science education research and what it represents. Authors often cite alpha values with little commentary to explain why they feel this statistic is relevant and seldom interpret the result for readers beyond citing an arbitrary threshold for an acceptable value. Those authors who do offer readers qualitative descriptors interpreting alpha values adopt a diverse and seemingly arbitrary terminology. More seriously, illustrative examples from the science education literature demonstrate that alpha may be acceptable even when there are recognised problems with the scales concerned. Alpha is also sometimes inappropriately used to claim an instrument is unidimensional. It is argued that a high value of alpha offers limited evidence of the reliability of a research instrument, and that indeed a very high value may actually be undesirable when developing a test of scientific knowledge or understanding. Guidance is offered to authors reporting, and readers evaluating, studies that present Cronbach's alpha statistic as evidence of instrument quality.

Contextualization of drug-mediator relations using evidence networks.

PubMed

Tran, Hai Joey; Speyer, Gil; Kiefer, Jeff; Kim, Seungchan

2017-05-31

Genomic analysis of drug response can provide unique insights into therapies that can be used to match the "right drug to the right patient." However, the process of discovering such therapeutic insights using genomic data is not straightforward and represents an area of active investigation. EDDY (Evaluation of Differential DependencY), a statistical test to detect differential statistical dependencies, is one method that leverages genomic data to identify differential genetic dependencies. EDDY has been used in conjunction with the Cancer Therapeutics Response Portal (CTRP), a dataset with drug-response measurements for more than 400 small molecules, and RNAseq data of cell lines in the Cancer Cell Line Encyclopedia (CCLE) to find potential drug-mediator pairs. Mediators were identified as genes that showed significant change in genetic statistical dependencies within annotated pathways between drug sensitive and drug non-sensitive cell lines, and the results are presented as a public web-portal (EDDY-CTRP). However, the interpretability of drug-mediator pairs currently hinders further exploration of these potentially valuable results. In this study, we address this challenge by constructing evidence networks built with protein and drug interactions from the STITCH and STRING interaction databases. STITCH and STRING are sister databases that catalog known and predicted drug-protein interactions and protein-protein interactions, respectively. Using these two databases, we have developed a method to construct evidence networks to "explain" the relation between a drug and a mediator.  RESULTS: We applied this approach to drug-mediator relations discovered in EDDY-CTRP analysis and identified evidence networks for ~70% of drug-mediator pairs where most mediators were not known direct targets for the drug. Constructed evidence networks enable researchers to contextualize the drug-mediator pair with current research and knowledge. Using evidence networks, we were able to improve the interpretability of the EDDY-CTRP results by linking the drugs and mediators with genes associated with both the drug and the mediator. We anticipate that these evidence networks will help inform EDDY-CTRP results and enhance the generation of important insights to drug sensitivity that will lead to improved precision medicine applications.

A statistical assessment of zero-polarization catalogues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, D.; Naghizadeh-Khouei, J.; Simmons, J. F. L.; Stewart, B. G.

1993-03-01

The statistical behavior associated with polarization measurements is presented. The cumulative distribution function for measurements of unpolarized sources normalized by the measurement error is considered and Kolmogorov tests have been applied to data which might be considered as being representative of assemblies of unpolarized stars. Tinbergen's (1979, 1982) and Piirola's I (1977) catalogs have been examined and reveal shortcomings, the former indicating the presence of uncorrected instrumental polarization in part of the data and both suggesting that the quoted errors are in general slightly underestimated. Citings of these catalogs as providing evidence that middle-type stars in general exhibit weak intrinsic polarizations are shown to be invalid.

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: “No evidence of effect” versus “evidence of no effect”

PubMed Central

Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Buyse, Marc

2015-01-01

This article is the first in a series exploring common pitfalls in statistical analysis in biomedical research. The power of a clinical trial is the ability to find a difference between treatments, where such a difference exists. At the end of the study, the lack of difference between treatments does not mean that the treatments can be considered equivalent. The distinction between “no evidence of effect” and “evidence of no effect” needs to be understood. PMID:25657905

Attitudes to statistics in primary health care physicians, Qassim province.

PubMed

Jahan, Saulat; Al-Saigul, Abdullah Mohammed; Suliman, Amel Abdalrhim

2016-07-01

Aim To investigate primary health care (PHC) physicians' attitudes to statistics, their self-reported knowledge level, and their perceived training needs in statistics. In spite of realization of the importance of statistics, inadequacies in physicians' knowledge and skills have been found, underscoring the need for in-service training. Understanding physicians' attitudes to statistics is vital in planning statistics training. The study was based on theory of planned behavior. A cross-sectional survey of all PHC physicians was conducted in Qassim province, from August to October 2014. Attitudes to statistics were determined by a self-administered questionnaire. The attitudes were assessed on four subscales including general perceptions; perceptions of knowledge and training; perceptions of statistics and evidence-based medicine; and perceptions of future learning. Findings Of 416 eligible participants, 338 (81.25%) responded to the survey. On a scale of 1-10, the majority (73.6%) of the participants self-assessed their level of statistics knowledge as five or below. The attitude scores could have a minimum of 20 and a maximum of 100, with higher scores showing a positive attitude. The participants showed a positive attitude with the mean score of 71.14 (±7.73). Out of the four subscales, 'perceptions of statistics and evidence-based medicine' subscale scored the highest, followed by 'perceptions of future learning'. PHC physicians have a positive attitude to statistics. However, they realize their gaps in knowledge in statistics, and are keen to fill these gaps. Statistics training, resulting in improved statistics knowledge is expected to lead to clinical care utilizing evidence-based medicine, and thus improvement to health care services.

Mechanical and Statistical Evidence of Human-Caused Earthquakes - A Global Data Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, C. D.

2012-12-01

The causality of large-scale geoengineering activities and the occurrence of earthquakes with magnitudes of up to M=8 is discussed and mechanical and statistical evidence is provided. The earthquakes were caused by artificial water reservoir impoundments, underground and open-pit mining, coastal management, hydrocarbon production and fluid injections/extractions. The presented global earthquake catalog has been recently published in the Journal of Seismology and is available for the public at www.cdklose.com. The data show evidence that geomechanical relationships exist with statistical significance between a) seismic moment magnitudes of observed earthquakes, b) anthropogenic mass shifts on the Earth's crust, and c) lateral distances of the earthquake hypocenters to the locations of the mass shifts. Research findings depend on uncertainties, in particular, of source parameter estimations of seismic events before instrumental recoding. First analyses, however, indicate that that small- to medium size earthquakes (M6) tend to be triggered. The rupture propagation of triggered events might be dominated by pre-existing tectonic stress conditions. Besides event specific evidence, large earthquakes such as China's 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake fall into a global pattern and can not be considered as outliers or simply seen as an act of god. Observations also indicate that every second seismic event tends to occur after a decade, while pore pressure diffusion seems to only play a role when injecting fluids deep underground. The chance of an earthquake to nucleate after two or 20 years near an area with a significant mass shift is 25% or 75% respectively. Moreover, causative effects of seismic activities highly depend on the tectonic stress regime in the Earth's crust in which geoengineering takes place.

Moderators and Mediators in Social Work Research: Toward a More Ecologically Valid Evidence Base for Practice

PubMed Central

Magill, Molly

2012-01-01

Summary Evidence-based practice involves the consistent and critical consumption of the social work research literature. As methodologies advance, primers to guide such efforts are often needed. In the present work, common statistical methods for testing moderation and mediation are identified, summarized, and corresponding examples, drawn from the substance abuse, domestic violence, and mental health literature, are provided. Findings While methodologically complex, analyses of these third variable effects can provide an optimal fit for the complexity involved in the provision of evidence-based social work services. While a moderator may identify the trait or state requirement for a causal relationship to occur, a mediator is concerned with the transmission of that relationship. In social work practice, these are questions of “under what conditions and for whom?” and of the “how?” of behavior change. Implications Implications include a need for greater attention to these methods among practitioners and evaluation researchers. With knowledge gained through the present review, social workers can benefit from a more ecologically valid evidence base for practice. PMID:22833701

Statistical field theory of futures commodity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

2018-02-01

The statistical theory of commodity prices has been formulated by Baaquie (2013). Further empirical studies of single (Baaquie et al., 2015) and multiple commodity prices (Baaquie et al., 2016) have provided strong evidence in support the primary assumptions of the statistical formulation. In this paper, the model for spot prices (Baaquie, 2013) is extended to model futures commodity prices using a statistical field theory of futures commodity prices. The futures prices are modeled as a two dimensional statistical field and a nonlinear Lagrangian is postulated. Empirical studies provide clear evidence in support of the model, with many nontrivial features of the model finding unexpected support from market data.

Evidence-based pathology in its second decade: toward probabilistic cognitive computing.

PubMed

Marchevsky, Alberto M; Walts, Ann E; Wick, Mark R

2017-03-01

Evidence-based pathology advocates using a combination of best available data ("evidence") from the literature and personal experience for the diagnosis, estimation of prognosis, and assessment of other variables that impact individual patient care. Evidence-based pathology relies on systematic reviews of the literature, evaluation of the quality of evidence as categorized by evidence levels and statistical tools such as meta-analyses, estimates of probabilities and odds, and others. However, it is well known that previously "statistically significant" information usually does not accurately forecast the future for individual patients. There is great interest in "cognitive computing" in which "data mining" is combined with "predictive analytics" designed to forecast future events and estimate the strength of those predictions. This study demonstrates the use of IBM Watson Analytics software to evaluate and predict the prognosis of 101 patients with typical and atypical pulmonary carcinoid tumors in which Ki-67 indices have been determined. The results obtained with this system are compared with those previously reported using "routine" statistical software and the help of a professional statistician. IBM Watson Analytics interactively provides statistical results that are comparable to those obtained with routine statistical tools but much more rapidly, with considerably less effort and with interactive graphics that are intuitively easy to apply. It also enables analysis of natural language variables and yields detailed survival predictions for patient subgroups selected by the user. Potential applications of this tool and basic concepts of cognitive computing are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neurological evidence linguistic processes precede perceptual simulation in conceptual processing.

PubMed

Louwerse, Max; Hutchinson, Sterling

2012-01-01

There is increasing evidence from response time experiments that language statistics and perceptual simulations both play a role in conceptual processing. In an EEG experiment we compared neural activity in cortical regions commonly associated with linguistic processing and visual perceptual processing to determine to what extent symbolic and embodied accounts of cognition applied. Participants were asked to determine the semantic relationship of word pairs (e.g., sky - ground) or to determine their iconic relationship (i.e., if the presentation of the pair matched their expected physical relationship). A linguistic bias was found toward the semantic judgment task and a perceptual bias was found toward the iconicity judgment task. More importantly, conceptual processing involved activation in brain regions associated with both linguistic and perceptual processes. When comparing the relative activation of linguistic cortical regions with perceptual cortical regions, the effect sizes for linguistic cortical regions were larger than those for the perceptual cortical regions early in a trial with the reverse being true later in a trial. These results map upon findings from other experimental literature and provide further evidence that processing of concept words relies both on language statistics and on perceptual simulations, whereby linguistic processes precede perceptual simulation processes.

Neurological Evidence Linguistic Processes Precede Perceptual Simulation in Conceptual Processing

PubMed Central

Louwerse, Max; Hutchinson, Sterling

2012-01-01

There is increasing evidence from response time experiments that language statistics and perceptual simulations both play a role in conceptual processing. In an EEG experiment we compared neural activity in cortical regions commonly associated with linguistic processing and visual perceptual processing to determine to what extent symbolic and embodied accounts of cognition applied. Participants were asked to determine the semantic relationship of word pairs (e.g., sky – ground) or to determine their iconic relationship (i.e., if the presentation of the pair matched their expected physical relationship). A linguistic bias was found toward the semantic judgment task and a perceptual bias was found toward the iconicity judgment task. More importantly, conceptual processing involved activation in brain regions associated with both linguistic and perceptual processes. When comparing the relative activation of linguistic cortical regions with perceptual cortical regions, the effect sizes for linguistic cortical regions were larger than those for the perceptual cortical regions early in a trial with the reverse being true later in a trial. These results map upon findings from other experimental literature and provide further evidence that processing of concept words relies both on language statistics and on perceptual simulations, whereby linguistic processes precede perceptual simulation processes. PMID:23133427

Addressing criticisms of existing predictive bias research: cognitive ability test scores still overpredict African Americans' job performance.

PubMed

Berry, Christopher M; Zhao, Peng

2015-01-01

Predictive bias studies have generally suggested that cognitive ability test scores overpredict job performance of African Americans, meaning these tests are not predictively biased against African Americans. However, at least 2 issues call into question existing over-/underprediction evidence: (a) a bias identified by Aguinis, Culpepper, and Pierce (2010) in the intercept test typically used to assess over-/underprediction and (b) a focus on the level of observed validity instead of operational validity. The present study developed and utilized a method of assessing over-/underprediction that draws on the math of subgroup regression intercept differences, does not rely on the biased intercept test, allows for analysis at the level of operational validity, and can use meta-analytic estimates as input values. Therefore, existing meta-analytic estimates of key parameters, corrected for relevant statistical artifacts, were used to determine whether African American job performance remains overpredicted at the level of operational validity. African American job performance was typically overpredicted by cognitive ability tests across levels of job complexity and across conditions wherein African American and White regression slopes did and did not differ. Because the present study does not rely on the biased intercept test and because appropriate statistical artifact corrections were carried out, the present study's results are not affected by the 2 issues mentioned above. The present study represents strong evidence that cognitive ability tests generally overpredict job performance of African Americans. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Is GAISE Evident? College Students' Perceptions of Statistics Classes as "Almost Not Math"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hedges, Sarai; Harkness, Shelly Sheats

2017-01-01

The connection between mathematics and statistics is an important aspect in understanding college students' learning of statistics because studies have shown relationships among mathematics attitudes and performance and statistics attitudes. Statistics attitudes, in turn, are related to performance in statistics courses. Little research has been…

"Plateau"-related summary statistics are uninformative for comparing working memory models.

PubMed

van den Berg, Ronald; Ma, Wei Ji

2014-10-01

Performance on visual working memory tasks decreases as more items need to be remembered. Over the past decade, a debate has unfolded between proponents of slot models and slotless models of this phenomenon (Ma, Husain, Bays (Nature Neuroscience 17, 347-356, 2014). Zhang and Luck (Nature 453, (7192), 233-235, 2008) and Anderson, Vogel, and Awh (Attention, Perception, Psychophys 74, (5), 891-910, 2011) noticed that as more items need to be remembered, "memory noise" seems to first increase and then reach a "stable plateau." They argued that three summary statistics characterizing this plateau are consistent with slot models, but not with slotless models. Here, we assess the validity of their methods. We generated synthetic data both from a leading slot model and from a recent slotless model and quantified model evidence using log Bayes factors. We found that the summary statistics provided at most 0.15 % of the expected model evidence in the raw data. In a model recovery analysis, a total of more than a million trials were required to achieve 99 % correct recovery when models were compared on the basis of summary statistics, whereas fewer than 1,000 trials were sufficient when raw data were used. Therefore, at realistic numbers of trials, plateau-related summary statistics are highly unreliable for model comparison. Applying the same analyses to subject data from Anderson et al. (Attention, Perception, Psychophys 74, (5), 891-910, 2011), we found that the evidence in the summary statistics was at most 0.12 % of the evidence in the raw data and far too weak to warrant any conclusions. The evidence in the raw data, in fact, strongly favored the slotless model. These findings call into question claims about working memory that are based on summary statistics.

How To Stop Sexual Harassment in Our Schools: A Handbook and Curriculum Guide for Administrators and Teachers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shoop, Robert J.; Edwards, Debra L.

Some educators continue to believe that sexual harassment is not a serious problem for their students. This book presents evidence to the contrary, citing statistics from recent surveys in which four out of five students reported that they have been the target of some form of sexual harassment during school. Part 1, comprised of seven chapters,…

CT Image Sequence Analysis for Object Recognition - A Rule-Based 3-D Computer Vision System

Treesearch

Dongping Zhu; Richard W. Conners; Daniel L. Schmoldt; Philip A. Araman

1991-01-01

Research is now underway to create a vision system for hardwood log inspection using a knowledge-based approach. In this paper, we present a rule-based, 3-D vision system for locating and identifying wood defects using topological, geometric, and statistical attributes. A number of different features can be derived from the 3-D input scenes. These features and evidence...

A Sociolinguistic Survey of Araki: A Dying Language of Vanuatu

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vari-Bogiri, Hannah

2005-01-01

Araki is one of around a hundred languages of the Republic of Vanuatu. It is a language spoken by the people of Araki, an islet situated near the south western part of Santo, in the north of Vanuatu. Linguistic statistics have shown a gradual decline in the number of speakers. This study presents evidence to show that Araki is a declining language…

PROBING FOR EVIDENCE OF PLUMES ON EUROPA WITH HST /STIS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sparks, W. B.; Bergeron, E.; Cracraft, M.

2016-10-01

Roth et al. (2014a) reported evidence for plumes of water venting from a southern high latitude region on Europa: spectroscopic detection of off-limb line emission from the dissociation products of water. Here, we present Hubble Space Telescope direct images of Europa in the far-ultraviolet (FUV) as it transited the smooth face of Jupiter to measure absorption from gas or aerosols beyond the Europa limb. Out of 10 observations, we found 3 in which plume activity could be implicated. Two observations showed statistically significant features at latitudes similar to Roth et al., and the third at a more equatorial location. Wemore » consider potential systematic effects that might influence the statistical analysis and create artifacts, and are unable to find any that can definitively explain the features, although there are reasons to be cautious. If the apparent absorption features are real, the magnitude of implied outgassing is similar to that of the Roth et al. feature; however, the apparent activity appears more frequently in our data.« less

Nazi Medical Research in Neuroscience: Medical Procedures, Victims, and Perpetrators.

PubMed

Loewenau, Aleksandra; Weindling, Paul J

Issues relating to the euthanasia killings of the mentally ill, the medical research conducted on collected body parts, and the clinical investigations on living victims under National Socialism are among the best-known abuses in medical history. But to date, there have been no statistics compiled regarding the extent and number of the victims and perpetrators, or regarding their identities in terms of age, nationality, and gender. "Victims of Unethical Human Experiments and Coerced Research under National Socialism," a research project based at Oxford Brookes University, has established an evidence-based documentation of the overall numbers of victims and perpetrators through specific record linkages of the evidence from the period of National Socialism, as well as from post-WWII trials and other records. This article examines the level and extent of these unethical medical procedures as they relate to the field of neuroscience. It presents statistical information regarding the victims, as well as detailing the involvement of the perpetrators and Nazi physicians with respect to their post-war activities and subsequent court trials.

Analysis of conference abstract-to-publication rate in UK orthopaedic research.

PubMed

Collier, Thomas; Roadley-Battin, Michelle; Darlow, Chloe; Chant, Philip; Hing, Caroline B; Smith, Toby O

2018-02-01

Presentation of research at orthopaedic conferences is an important component for surgical evidence-based practice. However, there remains uncertainty as to how many conference abstracts proceed to achieve full-text publication (FTP) for wider dissemination. This study aimed to determine the abstract-to-publication rate (APR) of research presented in the largest hip and knee orthopaedic meetings in the UK, and to identify predictive factors which influence the APR. All published abstracts (n=744) from the 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2010 British Hip Society (BHS) and the 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011 British Association for Surgery of the Knee (BASK) annual conference meetings were examined by four researchers independently. To determine whether abstracts had been published in full-text form, Google Scholar, Medline and EMBASE evidence databases were used to verify FTP status. Variables including sample size, statistical significance, grade of the first author, research affiliated institution and research design were extracted and analysed to identify whether these were associated with FTP. 176 out of 744 abstracts achieved FTP status (APR: 23.7%). Factors associated with FTP status included statistically significant results (P<0.01) and research design (P=0.02). Factors not associated included sample size, grade of the first author and research affiliated institution (P>0.05). APRs of the assessed BHS and BASK annual conference presentations are low in comparison to other scientific meetings. Encouragement should be provided to clinicians and academics to submit their work for publication to address this short fall, thereby enhancing the potential for full-text research publications to inform evidence-based orthopaedics. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Current and future health care professionals attitudes toward and knowledge of statistics: How confidence influences learning.

PubMed

Baghi, Heibatollah; Kornides, Melanie L

2013-01-01

Health care professionals require some understanding of statistics to successfully implement evidence based practice. Developing competency in statistical reasoning is necessary for students training in health care administration, research, and clinical care. Recently, the interest in healthcare professional's attitudes toward statistics has increased substantially due to evidence that these attitudes can hinder professionalism developing an understanding of statistical concepts. In this study, we analyzed pre- and post-instruction attitudes towards and knowledge of statistics obtained from health science graduate students, including nurses and nurse practitioners, enrolled in an introductory graduate course in statistics (n = 165). Results show that the students already held generally positive attitudes toward statistics at the beginning of course. However, these attitudes-along with the students' statistical proficiency-improved after 10 weeks of instruction. The results have implications for curriculum design and delivery methods as well as for health professionals' effective use of statistics in critically evaluating and utilizing research in their practices.

Current and future health care professionals attitudes toward and knowledge of statistics: How confidence influences learning

PubMed Central

Baghi, Heibatollah; Kornides, Melanie L.

2014-01-01

Background Health care professionals require some understanding of statistics to successfully implement evidence based practice. Developing competency in statistical reasoning is necessary for students training in health care administration, research, and clinical care. Recently, the interest in healthcare professional's attitudes toward statistics has increased substantially due to evidence that these attitudes can hinder professionalism developing an understanding of statistical concepts. Methods In this study, we analyzed pre- and post-instruction attitudes towards and knowledge of statistics obtained from health science graduate students, including nurses and nurse practitioners, enrolled in an introductory graduate course in statistics (n = 165). Results and Conclusions Results show that the students already held generally positive attitudes toward statistics at the beginning of course. However, these attitudes—along with the students’ statistical proficiency—improved after 10 weeks of instruction. The results have implications for curriculum design and delivery methods as well as for health professionals’ effective use of statistics in critically evaluating and utilizing research in their practices. PMID:25419256

Did egg-laying boas break Dollo's law? Phylogenetic evidence for reversal to oviparity in sand boas (Eryx: Boidae).

PubMed

Lynch, Vincent J; Wagner, Günter P

2010-01-01

Re-evolution of lost complex morphological characters has been proposed for several characters, including insect wings, limbs, eyes in snakes, and digits in lizards, among others. There has also been much interest in whether the transition from oviparity to viviparity is reversible, particularly in squamate reptiles where the transition to viviparity has occurred more times than in any other lineage. Here, we present a phylogenetic analysis of boid snakes based on a concatenated multigene study of all genera of erycines, New and Old World boines, plus other groups thought to be closely related with boines such as monotypic species Calabaria and Casarea. We reconstruct ancestral parity mode on this phylogeny and present statistical evidence that oviparity reevolved in a species of Old World sand boa in the genus Eryx nearly 60 million years after the initial boid transition to viviparity. Remarkably, like other viviparous boas hatchlings of oviparous Eryx lack an egg-tooth providing independent evidence that oviparity is a derived state in these species.

A statistical approach to selecting and confirming validation targets in -omics experiments

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Genomic technologies are, by their very nature, designed for hypothesis generation. In some cases, the hypotheses that are generated require that genome scientists confirm findings about specific genes or proteins. But one major advantage of high-throughput technology is that global genetic, genomic, transcriptomic, and proteomic behaviors can be observed. Manual confirmation of every statistically significant genomic result is prohibitively expensive. This has led researchers in genomics to adopt the strategy of confirming only a handful of the most statistically significant results, a small subset chosen for biological interest, or a small random subset. But there is no standard approach for selecting and quantitatively evaluating validation targets. Results Here we present a new statistical method and approach for statistically validating lists of significant results based on confirming only a small random sample. We apply our statistical method to show that the usual practice of confirming only the most statistically significant results does not statistically validate result lists. We analyze an extensively validated RNA-sequencing experiment to show that confirming a random subset can statistically validate entire lists of significant results. Finally, we analyze multiple publicly available microarray experiments to show that statistically validating random samples can both (i) provide evidence to confirm long gene lists and (ii) save thousands of dollars and hundreds of hours of labor over manual validation of each significant result. Conclusions For high-throughput -omics studies, statistical validation is a cost-effective and statistically valid approach to confirming lists of significant results. PMID:22738145

A description of Seismicity based on Non-extensive Statistical Physics: An introduction to Non-extensive Statistical Seismology.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallianatos, Filippos

2015-04-01

Despite the extreme complexity that characterizes earthquake generation process, simple phenomenology seems to apply in the collective properties of seismicity. The best known is the Gutenberg-Richter relation. Short and long-term clustering, power-law scaling and scale-invariance have been exhibited in the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity providing evidence for earthquakes as a nonlinear dynamic process. Regarding the physics of "many" earthquakes and how this can be derived from first principles, one may wonder, how can the collective properties of a set formed by all earthquakes in a given region, be derived and how does the structure of seismicity depend on its elementary constituents - the earthquakes? What are these properties? The physics of many earthquakes has to be studied with a different approach than the physics of one earthquake making the use of statistical physics necessary to understand the collective properties of earthquakes. Then a natural question arises. What type of statistical physics is appropriate to commonly describe effects from the microscale and crack opening level to the level of large earthquakes? An answer to the previous question could be non-extensive statistical physics, introduced by Tsallis (1988), as the appropriate methodological tool to describe entities with (multi) fractal distributions of their elements and where long-range interactions or intermittency are important, as in fracturing phenomena and earthquakes. In the present work, we review some fundamental properties of earthquake physics and how these are derived by means of non-extensive statistical physics. The aim is to understand aspects of the underlying physics that lead to the evolution of the earthquake phenomenon introducing the new topic of non-extensive statistical seismology. This research has been funded by the European Union (European Social Fund) and Greek national resources under the framework of the "THALES Program: SEISMO FEAR HELLARC" project. References F. Vallianatos, "A non-extensive approach to risk assessment", Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 211-216, 2009 F. Vallianatos and P. Sammonds "Is plate tectonics a case of non-extensive thermodynamics?" Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 389 (21), 4989-4993, 2010, F. Vallianatos, G. Michas, G. Papadakis and P. Sammonds " A non extensive statistical physics view to the spatiotemporal properties of the June 1995, Aigion earthquake (M6.2) aftershock sequence (West Corinth rift, Greece)", Acta Geophysica, 60(3), 758-768, 2012 F. Vallianatos and L. Telesca, Statistical mechanics in earth physics and natural hazards (editorial), Acta Geophysica, 60, 3, 499-501, 2012 F. Vallianatos, G. Michas, G. Papadakis and A. Tzanis "Evidence of non-extensivity in the seismicity observed during the 2011-2012 unrest at the Santorini volcanic complex, Greece" Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.,13,177-185, 2013 F. Vallianatos and P. Sammonds, "Evidence of non-extensive statistical physics of the lithospheric instability approaching the 2004 Sumatran-Andaman and 2011 Honshu mega-earthquakes" Tectonophysics, 590 , 52-58, 2013 G. Papadakis, F. Vallianatos, P. Sammonds, " Evidence of Nonextensive Statistical Physics behavior of the Hellenic Subduction Zone seismicity" Tectonophysics, 608, 1037 -1048, 2013 G. Michas, F. Vallianatos, and P. Sammonds, Non-extensivity and long-range correlations in the earthquake activity at the West Corinth rift (Greece) Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 713-724, 2013

Fluctuations and Noise in Stochastic Spread of Respiratory Infection Epidemics in Social Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yulmetyev, Renat; Emelyanova, Natalya; Demin, Sergey; Gafarov, Fail; Hänggi, Peter; Yulmetyeva, Dinara

2003-05-01

For the analysis of epidemic and disease dynamics complexity, it is necessary to understand the basic principles and notions of its spreading in long-time memory media. Here we considering the problem from a theoretical and practical viewpoint, presenting the quantitative evidence confirming the existence of stochastic long-range memory and robust chaos in a real time series of respiratory infections of human upper respiratory track. In this work we present a new statistical method of analyzing the spread of grippe and acute respiratory track infections epidemic process of human upper respiratory track by means of the theory of discrete non-Markov stochastic processes. We use the results of our recent theory (Phys. Rev. E 65, 046107 (2002)) for the study of statistical effects of memory in real data series, describing the epidemic dynamics of human acute respiratory track infections and grippe. The obtained results testify to an opportunity of the strict quantitative description of the regular and stochastic components in epidemic dynamics of social networks with a view to time discreteness and effects of statistical memory.

Analysis and interpretation of cost data in randomised controlled trials: review of published studies

PubMed Central

Barber, Julie A; Thompson, Simon G

1998-01-01

Objective To review critically the statistical methods used for health economic evaluations in randomised controlled trials where an estimate of cost is available for each patient in the study. Design Survey of published randomised trials including an economic evaluation with cost values suitable for statistical analysis; 45 such trials published in 1995 were identified from Medline. Main outcome measures The use of statistical methods for cost data was assessed in terms of the descriptive statistics reported, use of statistical inference, and whether the reported conclusions were justified. Results Although all 45 trials reviewed apparently had cost data for each patient, only 9 (20%) reported adequate measures of variability for these data and only 25 (56%) gave results of statistical tests or a measure of precision for the comparison of costs between the randomised groups. Only 16 (36%) of the articles gave conclusions which were justified on the basis of results presented in the paper. No paper reported sample size calculations for costs. Conclusions The analysis and interpretation of cost data from published trials reveal a lack of statistical awareness. Strong and potentially misleading conclusions about the relative costs of alternative therapies have often been reported in the absence of supporting statistical evidence. Improvements in the analysis and reporting of health economic assessments are urgently required. Health economic guidelines need to be revised to incorporate more detailed statistical advice. Key messagesHealth economic evaluations required for important healthcare policy decisions are often carried out in randomised controlled trialsA review of such published economic evaluations assessed whether statistical methods for cost outcomes have been appropriately used and interpretedFew publications presented adequate descriptive information for costs or performed appropriate statistical analysesIn at least two thirds of the papers, the main conclusions regarding costs were not justifiedThe analysis and reporting of health economic assessments within randomised controlled trials urgently need improving PMID:9794854

The relationship between obligatory cortical auditory evoked potentials (CAEPs) and functional measures in young infants.

PubMed

Golding, Maryanne; Pearce, Wendy; Seymour, John; Cooper, Alison; Ching, Teresa; Dillon, Harvey

2007-02-01

Finding ways to evaluate the success of hearing aid fittings in young infants has increased in importance with the implementation of hearing screening programs. Cortical auditory evoked potentials (CAEP) can be recorded in infants and provides evidence for speech detection at the cortical level. The validity of this technique as a tool of hearing aid evaluation needs, however, to be demonstrated. The present study examined the relationship between the presence/absence of CAEPs to speech stimuli and the outcomes of a parental questionnaire in young infants who were fitted with hearing aids. The presence/absence of responses was determined by an experienced examiner as well as by a statistical measure, Hotelling's T(2). A statistically significant correlation between CAEPs and questionnaire scores was found using the examiner's grading (rs = 0.45) and using the statistical grading (rs = 0.41), and there was reasonably good agreement between traditional response detection methods and the statistical analysis.

Preliminary Characterization of Erythrocytes Deformability on the Entropy-Complexity Plane

PubMed Central

Korol, Ana M; D’Arrigo, Mabel; Foresto, Patricia; Pérez, Susana; Martín, Maria T; Rosso, Osualdo A

2010-01-01

We present an application of wavelet-based Information Theory quantifiers (Normalized Total Shannon Entropy, MPR-Statistical Complexity and Entropy-Complexity plane) on red blood cells membrane viscoelasticity characterization. These quantifiers exhibit important localization advantages provided by the Wavelet Theory. The present approach produces a clear characterization of this dynamical system, finding out an evident manifestation of a random process on the red cell samples of healthy individuals, and its sharp reduction of randomness on analyzing a human haematological disease, such as β-thalassaemia minor. PMID:21611139

Testing for nonlinearity in time series: The method of surrogate data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Theiler, J.; Galdrikian, B.; Longtin, A.

1991-01-01

We describe a statistical approach for identifying nonlinearity in time series; in particular, we want to avoid claims of chaos when simpler models (such as linearly correlated noise) can explain the data. The method requires a careful statement of the null hypothesis which characterizes a candidate linear process, the generation of an ensemble of surrogate'' data sets which are similar to the original time series but consistent with the null hypothesis, and the computation of a discriminating statistic for the original and for each of the surrogate data sets. The idea is to test the original time series against themore » null hypothesis by checking whether the discriminating statistic computed for the original time series differs significantly from the statistics computed for each of the surrogate sets. We present algorithms for generating surrogate data under various null hypotheses, and we show the results of numerical experiments on artificial data using correlation dimension, Lyapunov exponent, and forecasting error as discriminating statistics. Finally, we consider a number of experimental time series -- including sunspots, electroencephalogram (EEG) signals, and fluid convection -- and evaluate the statistical significance of the evidence for nonlinear structure in each case. 56 refs., 8 figs.« less

Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values and Evidence of Presence of Dragon King (DK) in Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, T.; Ramos, F.; Rempel, E. L.; Silva, S.; C-L Chian, A.

2017-12-01

The solar wind constitutes a nonlinear dynamical system, presenting intermittent turbulence, multifractality and chaotic dynamics. One characteristic shared by many such complex systems is the presence of extreme events, that play an important role in several Geophysical phenomena and their statistical characterization is a problem of great practical relevance. This work investigates the presence of extreme events in time series of the modulus of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by Cluster spacecraft on February 2, 2002. One of the main results is that the solar wind near the Earth's bow shock can be modeled by the Generalized Pareto (GP) and Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) distributions. Both models present a statistically significant positive shape parameter which implyies a heavy tail in the probability distribution functions and an unbounded growth in return values as return periods become too long. There is evidence that current sheets are the main responsible for positive values of the shape parameter. It is also shown that magnetic reconnection at the interface between two interplanetary magnetic flux ropes in the solar wind can be considered as Dragon Kings (DK), a class of extreme events whose formation mechanisms are fundamentally different from others. As long as magnetic reconnection can be classified as a Dragon King, there is the possibility of its identification and even its prediction. Dragon kings had previously been identified in time series of financial crashes, nuclear power generation accidents, stock market and so on. It is believed that they are associated with the occurrence of extreme events in dynamical systems at phase transition, bifurcation, crises or tipping points.

Nurses' readiness for evidence-based practice at Finnish university hospitals: a national survey.

PubMed

Saunders, Hannele; Stevens, Kathleen R; Vehviläinen-Julkunen, Katri

2016-08-01

The aim of this study was to determine nurses' readiness for evidence-based practice at Finnish university hospitals. Although systematic implementation of evidence-based practice is essential to effectively improving patient outcomes and value of care, nurses do not consistently use evidence in practice. Uptake is hampered by lack of nurses' individual and organizational readiness for evidence-based practice. Although nurses' evidence-based practice competencies have been widely studied in countries leading the evidence-based practice movement, less is known about nurses' readiness for evidence-based practice in the non-English-speaking world. A cross-sectional descriptive survey design. The study was conducted in November-December 2014 in every university hospital in Finland with a convenience sample (n = 943) of practicing nurses. The electronic survey data were collected using the Stevens' Evidence-Based Practice Readiness Inventory, which was translated into Finnish according to standardized guidelines for translation of research instruments. The data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Nurses reported low to moderate levels of self-efficacy and low levels of evidence-based practice knowledge. A statistically significant, direct correlation was found between nurses' self-efficacy in employing evidence-based practice and their actual evidence-based practice knowledge level. Several statistically significant differences were found between nurses' socio-demographic variables and nurses' self-efficacy in employing evidence-based practice, and actual and perceived evidence-based practice knowledge. Finnish nurses at university hospitals are not ready for evidence-based practice. Although nurses are familiar with the concept of evidence-based practice, they lack the evidence-based practice knowledge and self-efficacy in employing evidence-based practice required for integrating best evidence into clinical care delivery. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Poor Families in 2001: Parents Working Less and Children Continue To Lag Behind. Child Trends Research Brief.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wertheimer, Richard

With increasing unemployment in the United States, the nation has seen a drop in the percentage of children in poverty with one or more parents in the workforce, a reverse of trends evident in the late 1990s. This research brief presents a statistical snapshot of working poor families with children in 2001. Analyses revealed that in 2001 children…

Living systematic reviews: 3. Statistical methods for updating meta-analyses.

PubMed

Simmonds, Mark; Salanti, Georgia; McKenzie, Joanne; Elliott, Julian

2017-11-01

A living systematic review (LSR) should keep the review current as new research evidence emerges. Any meta-analyses included in the review will also need updating as new material is identified. If the aim of the review is solely to present the best current evidence standard meta-analysis may be sufficient, provided reviewers are aware that results may change at later updates. If the review is used in a decision-making context, more caution may be needed. When using standard meta-analysis methods, the chance of incorrectly concluding that any updated meta-analysis is statistically significant when there is no effect (the type I error) increases rapidly as more updates are performed. Inaccurate estimation of any heterogeneity across studies may also lead to inappropriate conclusions. This paper considers four methods to avoid some of these statistical problems when updating meta-analyses: two methods, that is, law of the iterated logarithm and the Shuster method control primarily for inflation of type I error and two other methods, that is, trial sequential analysis and sequential meta-analysis control for type I and II errors (failing to detect a genuine effect) and take account of heterogeneity. This paper compares the methods and considers how they could be applied to LSRs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Efficient Coding and Statistically Optimal Weighting of Covariance among Acoustic Attributes in Novel Sounds

PubMed Central

Stilp, Christian E.; Kluender, Keith R.

2012-01-01

To the extent that sensorineural systems are efficient, redundancy should be extracted to optimize transmission of information, but perceptual evidence for this has been limited. Stilp and colleagues recently reported efficient coding of robust correlation (r = .97) among complex acoustic attributes (attack/decay, spectral shape) in novel sounds. Discrimination of sounds orthogonal to the correlation was initially inferior but later comparable to that of sounds obeying the correlation. These effects were attenuated for less-correlated stimuli (r = .54) for reasons that are unclear. Here, statistical properties of correlation among acoustic attributes essential for perceptual organization are investigated. Overall, simple strength of the principal correlation is inadequate to predict listener performance. Initial superiority of discrimination for statistically consistent sound pairs was relatively insensitive to decreased physical acoustic/psychoacoustic range of evidence supporting the correlation, and to more frequent presentations of the same orthogonal test pairs. However, increased range supporting an orthogonal dimension has substantial effects upon perceptual organization. Connectionist simulations and Eigenvalues from closed-form calculations of principal components analysis (PCA) reveal that perceptual organization is near-optimally weighted to shared versus unshared covariance in experienced sound distributions. Implications of reduced perceptual dimensionality for speech perception and plausible neural substrates are discussed. PMID:22292057

Cube search, revisited.

PubMed

Zhang, Xuetao; Huang, Jie; Yigit-Elliott, Serap; Rosenholtz, Ruth

2015-03-16

Observers can quickly search among shaded cubes for one lit from a unique direction. However, replace the cubes with similar 2-D patterns that do not appear to have a 3-D shape, and search difficulty increases. These results have challenged models of visual search and attention. We demonstrate that cube search displays differ from those with "equivalent" 2-D search items in terms of the informativeness of fairly low-level image statistics. This informativeness predicts peripheral discriminability of target-present from target-absent patches, which in turn predicts visual search performance, across a wide range of conditions. Comparing model performance on a number of classic search tasks, cube search does not appear unexpectedly easy. Easy cube search, per se, does not provide evidence for preattentive computation of 3-D scene properties. However, search asymmetries derived from rotating and/or flipping the cube search displays cannot be explained by the information in our current set of image statistics. This may merely suggest a need to modify the model's set of 2-D image statistics. Alternatively, it may be difficult cube search that provides evidence for preattentive computation of 3-D scene properties. By attributing 2-D luminance variations to a shaded 3-D shape, 3-D scene understanding may slow search for 2-D features of the target. © 2015 ARVO.

Cube search, revisited

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xuetao; Huang, Jie; Yigit-Elliott, Serap; Rosenholtz, Ruth

2015-01-01

Observers can quickly search among shaded cubes for one lit from a unique direction. However, replace the cubes with similar 2-D patterns that do not appear to have a 3-D shape, and search difficulty increases. These results have challenged models of visual search and attention. We demonstrate that cube search displays differ from those with “equivalent” 2-D search items in terms of the informativeness of fairly low-level image statistics. This informativeness predicts peripheral discriminability of target-present from target-absent patches, which in turn predicts visual search performance, across a wide range of conditions. Comparing model performance on a number of classic search tasks, cube search does not appear unexpectedly easy. Easy cube search, per se, does not provide evidence for preattentive computation of 3-D scene properties. However, search asymmetries derived from rotating and/or flipping the cube search displays cannot be explained by the information in our current set of image statistics. This may merely suggest a need to modify the model's set of 2-D image statistics. Alternatively, it may be difficult cube search that provides evidence for preattentive computation of 3-D scene properties. By attributing 2-D luminance variations to a shaded 3-D shape, 3-D scene understanding may slow search for 2-D features of the target. PMID:25780063

Evidence and evidence gaps in therapies of nasal obstruction and rhinosinusitis

PubMed Central

Rotter, Nicole

2016-01-01

Therapeutic decisions in otorhinolaryngology are based on clinical experience, surgical skills, and scientific evidence. Recently, evidence-based therapies have gained increased attention and importance due to their potential to improve the individual patient’s treatment and their potential at the same time to reduce treatment costs. In clinical practice, it is almost impossible to stay ahead of the increasing mass of literature and on the other hand critically assess the presented data. A solid scientific and statistical knowledge as well as a significant amount of spare time are required to detect systematic bias and other errors in study designs, also with respect to assessing whether or not a study should be part of an individual therapeutic decision. Meta-analyses, reviews, and clinical guidelines are, therefore, of increasing importance for evidence-based therapy in clinical practice. This review is an update of the availability of external evidence for the treatment of nasal obstruction and rhinosinusitis. It becomes evident that both groups of diseases differ significantly in the availability of external evidence. Furthermore, it becomes obvious that surgical treatment options are normally based on evidence of significantly lower quality than medical treatment options. PMID:28025606

The structure of intense vorticity in homogeneous isotropic turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jimenez, J.; Wray, A. A.; Saffman, P. G.; Rogallo, R. S.

1992-01-01

The structure of the intense vorticity regions is studied in numerically simulated homogeneous, isotropic, equilibrium turbulent flow fields at four different Reynolds numbers in the range Re(sub lambda) = 36-171. In accordance with previous investigators, this vorticity is found to be organized in coherent, cylindrical or ribbon-like, vortices ('worms'). A statistical study suggests that they are just especially intense features of the background, O(omega'), vorticity. Their radii scale with the Kolmogorov microscale and their lengths with the integral scale of the flow. An interesting observation is that the Reynolds number based on the circulation of the intense vortices, gamma/nu, increases monotonically with Re(sub lambda), raising the question of the stability of the structures in the limit of Re(sub lambda) approaching infinity. One and two-dimensional statistics of vorticity and strain are presented; they are non-gaussian, and the behavior of their tails depends strongly on the Reynolds number. There is no evidence of convergence to a limiting distribution in our range of Re(sub lambda), even though the energy spectra and the energy dissipation rate show good asymptotic properties in the higher Reynolds number cases. Evidence is presented to show that worms are natural features of the flow and that they do not depend on the particular forcing scheme.

Which symptom assessments and approaches are uniquely appropriate for paediatric concussion?

PubMed

Gioia, G A; Schneider, J C; Vaughan, C G; Isquith, P K

2009-05-01

To (a) identify post-concussion symptom scales appropriate for children and adolescents in sports; (b) review evidence for reliability and validity; and (c) recommend future directions for scale development. Quantitative and qualitative literature review of symptom rating scales appropriate for children and adolescents aged 5 to 22 years. Literature identified via search of Medline, Ovid-Medline and PsycInfo databases; review of reference lists in identified articles; querying sports concussion specialists. 29 articles met study inclusion criteria. 5 symptom scales examined in 11 studies for ages 5-12 years and in 25 studies for ages 13-22. 10 of 11 studies for 5-12-year-olds presented validity evidence for three scales; 7 studies provided reliability evidence for two scales; 7 studies used serial administrations but no reliable change metrics. Two scales included parent-reports and one included a teacher report. 24 of 25 studies for 13-22 year-olds presented validity evidence for five measures; seven studies provided reliability evidence for four measures with 18 studies including serial administrations and two examining Reliable Change. Psychometric evidence for symptom scales is stronger for adolescents than for younger children. Most scales provide evidence of concurrent validity, discriminating concussed and non-concussed groups. Few report reliability and evidence for validity is narrow. Two measures include parent/teacher reports. Few scales examine reliable change statistics, limiting interpretability of temporal changes. Future studies are needed to fully define symptom scale psychometric properties with the greatest need in younger student-athletes.

Quasi-experimental study designs series-paper 10: synthesizing evidence for effects collected from quasi-experimental studies presents surmountable challenges.

PubMed

Becker, Betsy Jane; Aloe, Ariel M; Duvendack, Maren; Stanley, T D; Valentine, Jeffrey C; Fretheim, Atle; Tugwell, Peter

2017-09-01

To outline issues of importance to analytic approaches to the synthesis of quasi-experiments (QEs) and to provide a statistical model for use in analysis. We drew on studies of statistics, epidemiology, and social-science methodology to outline methods for synthesis of QE studies. The design and conduct of QEs, effect sizes from QEs, and moderator variables for the analysis of those effect sizes were discussed. Biases, confounding, design complexities, and comparisons across designs offer serious challenges to syntheses of QEs. Key components of meta-analyses of QEs were identified, including the aspects of QE study design to be coded and analyzed. Of utmost importance are the design and statistical controls implemented in the QEs. Such controls and any potential sources of bias and confounding must be modeled in analyses, along with aspects of the interventions and populations studied. Because of such controls, effect sizes from QEs are more complex than those from randomized experiments. A statistical meta-regression model that incorporates important features of the QEs under review was presented. Meta-analyses of QEs provide particular challenges, but thorough coding of intervention characteristics and study methods, along with careful analysis, should allow for sound inferences. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Balance exercise for persons with multiple sclerosis using Wii games: a randomised, controlled multi-centre study.

PubMed

Nilsagård, Ylva E; Forsberg, Anette S; von Koch, Lena

2013-02-01

The use of interactive video games is expanding within rehabilitation. The evidence base is, however, limited. Our aim was to evaluate the effects of a Nintendo Wii Fit® balance exercise programme on balance function and walking ability in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). A multi-centre, randomised, controlled single-blinded trial with random allocation to exercise or no exercise. The exercise group participated in a programme of 12 supervised 30-min sessions of balance exercises using Wii games, twice a week for 6-7 weeks. Primary outcome was the Timed Up and Go test (TUG). In total, 84 participants were enrolled; four were lost to follow-up. After the intervention, there were no statistically significant differences between groups but effect sizes for the TUG, TUGcognitive and, the Dynamic Gait Index (DGI) were moderate and small for all other measures. Statistically significant improvements within the exercise group were present for all measures (large to moderate effect sizes) except in walking speed and balance confidence. The non-exercise group showed statistically significant improvements for the Four Square Step Test and the DGI. In comparison with no intervention, a programme of supervised balance exercise using Nintendo Wii Fit® did not render statistically significant differences, but presented moderate effect sizes for several measures of balance performance.

Use of statistical and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling and simulation to improve decision-making: A section summary report of the trends and innovations in clinical trial statistics conference.

PubMed

Kimko, Holly; Berry, Seth; O'Kelly, Michael; Mehrotra, Nitin; Hutmacher, Matthew; Sethuraman, Venkat

2017-01-01

The application of modeling and simulation (M&S) methods to improve decision-making was discussed during the Trends & Innovations in Clinical Trial Statistics Conference held in Durham, North Carolina, USA on May 1-4, 2016. Uses of both pharmacometric and statistical M&S were presented during the conference, highlighting the diversity of the methods employed by pharmacometricians and statisticians to address a broad range of quantitative issues in drug development. Five presentations are summarized herein, which cover the development strategy of employing M&S to drive decision-making; European initiatives on best practice in M&S; case studies of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics modeling in regulatory decisions; estimation of exposure-response relationships in the presence of confounding; and the utility of estimating the probability of a correct decision for dose selection when prior information is limited. While M&S has been widely used during the last few decades, it is expected to play an essential role as more quantitative assessments are employed in the decision-making process. By integrating M&S as a tool to compile the totality of evidence collected throughout the drug development program, more informed decisions will be made.

Statistical properties of the radiation belt seed population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boyd, A. J.; Spence, H. E.; Huang, C. -L.

Here, we present a statistical analysis of phase space density data from the first 26 months of the Van Allen Probes mission. In particular, we investigate the relationship between the tens and hundreds of keV seed electrons and >1 MeV core radiation belt electron population. Using a cross-correlation analysis, we find that the seed and core populations are well correlated with a coefficient of ≈0.73 with a time lag of 10–15 h. We present evidence of a seed population threshold that is necessary for subsequent acceleration. The depth of penetration of the seed population determines the inner boundary of themore » acceleration process. However, we show that an enhanced seed population alone is not enough to produce acceleration in the higher energies, implying that the seed population of hundreds of keV electrons is only one of several conditions required for MeV electron radiation belt acceleration.« less

Statistical properties of the radiation belt seed population

DOE PAGES

Boyd, A. J.; Spence, H. E.; Huang, C. -L.; ...

2016-07-25

Here, we present a statistical analysis of phase space density data from the first 26 months of the Van Allen Probes mission. In particular, we investigate the relationship between the tens and hundreds of keV seed electrons and >1 MeV core radiation belt electron population. Using a cross-correlation analysis, we find that the seed and core populations are well correlated with a coefficient of ≈0.73 with a time lag of 10–15 h. We present evidence of a seed population threshold that is necessary for subsequent acceleration. The depth of penetration of the seed population determines the inner boundary of themore » acceleration process. However, we show that an enhanced seed population alone is not enough to produce acceleration in the higher energies, implying that the seed population of hundreds of keV electrons is only one of several conditions required for MeV electron radiation belt acceleration.« less

Endpoints and cutpoints in head and neck oncology trials: methodical background, challenges, current practice and perspectives.

PubMed

Hezel, Marcus; von Usslar, Kathrin; Kurzweg, Thiemo; Lörincz, Balazs B; Knecht, Rainald

2016-04-01

This article reviews the methodical and statistical basics of designing a trial, with a special focus on the process of defining and choosing endpoints and cutpoints as the foundations of clinical research, and ultimately that of evidence-based medicine. There has been a significant progress in the treatment of head and neck cancer in the past few decades. Currently available treatment options can have a variety of different goals, depending e.g. on tumor stage, among other factors. The outcome of a specific treatment in clinical trials is measured using endpoints. Besides classical endpoints, such as overall survival or organ preservation, other endpoints like quality of life are becoming increasingly important in designing and conducting a trial. The present work is based on electronic research and focuses on the solid methodical and statistical basics of a clinical trial, on the structure of study designs and on the presentation of various endpoints.

Designing Anti-Binge Drinking Prevention Messages: Message Framing vs. Evidence Type.

PubMed

Kang, Hannah; Lee, Moon J

2017-09-27

We investigated whether presenting anti-binge drinking health campaign messages in different message framing and evidence types influences college students' intention to avoid binge drinking, based on prospect theory (PT) and exemplification theory. A 2 (message framing: loss-framed message/gain-framed message) X 2 (evidence type: statistical/narrative) between-subjects factorial design with a control group was conducted with 156 college students. College students who were exposed to the loss-framed message condition exhibited a higher level of intention to avoid binge drinking in the near future than those who did not see any messages (the control group). This finding was mainly among non-binge drinkers. Regardless of evidence type, those who were exposed to the messages exhibited a higher level of intention to avoid binge drinking than those in the control group. This is also mainly among non-binge drinkers. We also found the main effects of message framing and evidence type on attitude toward the message and the main effect of message framing on attitude toward drinking.

The Power of 'Evidence': Reliable Science or a Set of Blunt Tools?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wrigley, Terry

2018-01-01

In response to the increasing emphasis on 'evidence-based teaching', this article examines the privileging of randomised controlled trials and their statistical synthesis (meta-analysis). It also pays particular attention to two third-level statistical syntheses: John Hattie's "Visible learning" project and the EEF's "Teaching and…

Coupling Changing Student Demographics with Evidence-Based Leadership Practices: Leading Hispanic Friendly Learning Organizations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farmer, Tod Allen

2012-01-01

The study assessed the need for learning organizations to implement evidence-based policies and practices designed to enhance the academic and social success of Hispanic learners. Descriptive statistics and longitudinal data from the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES) and the National Clearinghouse for English Language Acquisition…

Statistical learning of an auditory sequence and reorganization of acquired knowledge: A time course of word segmentation and ordering.

PubMed

Daikoku, Tatsuya; Yatomi, Yutaka; Yumoto, Masato

2017-01-27

Previous neural studies have supported the hypothesis that statistical learning mechanisms are used broadly across different domains such as language and music. However, these studies have only investigated a single aspect of statistical learning at a time, such as recognizing word boundaries or learning word order patterns. In this study, we neutrally investigated how the two levels of statistical learning for recognizing word boundaries and word ordering could be reflected in neuromagnetic responses and how acquired statistical knowledge is reorganised when the syntactic rules are revised. Neuromagnetic responses to the Japanese-vowel sequence (a, e, i, o, and u), presented every .45s, were recorded from 14 right-handed Japanese participants. The vowel order was constrained by a Markov stochastic model such that five nonsense words (aue, eao, iea, oiu, and uoi) were chained with an either-or rule: the probability of the forthcoming word was statistically defined (80% for one word; 20% for the other word) by the most recent two words. All of the word transition probabilities (80% and 20%) were switched in the middle of the sequence. In the first and second quarters of the sequence, the neuromagnetic responses to the words that appeared with higher transitional probability were significantly reduced compared with those that appeared with a lower transitional probability. After switching the word transition probabilities, the response reduction was replicated in the last quarter of the sequence. The responses to the final vowels in the words were significantly reduced compared with those to the initial vowels in the last quarter of the sequence. The results suggest that both within-word and between-word statistical learning are reflected in neural responses. The present study supports the hypothesis that listeners learn larger structures such as phrases first, and they subsequently extract smaller structures, such as words, from the learned phrases. The present study provides the first neurophysiological evidence that the correction of statistical knowledge requires more time than the acquisition of new statistical knowledge. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Visualization and modeling of sub-populations of compositional data: statistical methods illustrated by means of geochemical data from fumarolic fluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawlowsky-Glahn, Vera; Buccianti, Antonella

In the investigation of fluid samples of a volcanic system, collected during a given period of time, one of the main goals is to discover cause-effect relationships that allow us to explain changes in the chemical composition. They might be caused by physicochemical factors, such as temperature, pressure, or non-conservative behavior of some chemical constituents (addition or subtraction of material), among others. The presence of subgroups of observations showing different behavior is evidence of unusually complex situations, which might render even more difficult the analysis and interpretation of observed phenomena. These cases require appropriate statistical techniques as well as sound a priori hypothesis concerning underlying geological processes. The purpose of this article is to present the state of the art in the methodology for a better visualization of compositional data, as well as for detecting statistically significant sub-populations. The scheme of this article is to present first the application, and then the underlying methodology, with the aim of the first motivating the second. Thus, the first part has the goal to illustrate how to understand and interpret results, whereas the second is devoted to expose how to perform a study of this kind. The case study is related to the chemical composition of a fumarole of Vulcano Island (southern Italy), called F14. The volcanic activity at Vulcano Island is subject to a continuous program of geochemical surveillance from 1978 up to now and the large data set of observations contains the main chemical composition of volcanic gases as well as trace element concentrations in the condensates of fumarolic gases. Out of the complete set of measured components, the variables H2S, HF and As, determined in samples collected from 1978 to 1993 (As is not available in recent samples) are used to characterize two groups in the original population, which proved to be statistically distinct. The choice of the variables is motivated by the importance of investigating the behavior of well-known toxicity elements, which show, like As, a significant mobility under hydrothermal conditions. The statistical methodology used for this study is based on models devised for compositional data. They include (1) the perturbation approach for a better visualization; (2) cluster analysis to detect groups; (3) confidence regions for the center of the groups to obtain graphical evidence of differences between groups; and (4) tests of hypothesis about centers and covariance structures to obtain statistical evidence about differences between groups. The fact that only three components are used allows us to illustrate the results using ternary diagrams.

“Plateau”-related summary statistics are uninformative for comparing working memory models

PubMed Central

van den Berg, Ronald; Ma, Wei Ji

2014-01-01

Performance on visual working memory tasks decreases as more items need to be remembered. Over the past decade, a debate has unfolded between proponents of slot models and slotless models of this phenomenon. Zhang and Luck (2008) and Anderson, Vogel, and Awh (2011) noticed that as more items need to be remembered, “memory noise” seems to first increase and then reach a “stable plateau.” They argued that three summary statistics characterizing this plateau are consistent with slot models, but not with slotless models. Here, we assess the validity of their methods. We generated synthetic data both from a leading slot model and from a recent slotless model and quantified model evidence using log Bayes factors. We found that the summary statistics provided, at most, 0.15% of the expected model evidence in the raw data. In a model recovery analysis, a total of more than a million trials were required to achieve 99% correct recovery when models were compared on the basis of summary statistics, whereas fewer than 1,000 trials were sufficient when raw data were used. At realistic numbers of trials, plateau-related summary statistics are completely unreliable for model comparison. Applying the same analyses to subject data from Anderson et al. (2011), we found that the evidence in the summary statistics was, at most, 0.12% of the evidence in the raw data and far too weak to warrant any conclusions. These findings call into question claims about working memory that are based on summary statistics. PMID:24719235

Critical appraisal of scientific articles: part 1 of a series on evaluation of scientific publications.

PubMed

du Prel, Jean-Baptist; Röhrig, Bernd; Blettner, Maria

2009-02-01

In the era of evidence-based medicine, one of the most important skills a physician needs is the ability to analyze scientific literature critically. This is necessary to keep medical knowledge up to date and to ensure optimal patient care. The aim of this paper is to present an accessible introduction into critical appraisal of scientific articles. Using a selection of international literature, the reader is introduced to the principles of critical reading of scientific articles in medicine. For the sake of conciseness, detailed description of statistical methods is omitted. Widely accepted principles for critically appraising scientific articles are outlined. Basic knowledge of study design, structuring of an article, the role of different sections, of statistical presentations as well as sources of error and limitation are presented. The reader does not require extensive methodological knowledge. As far as necessary for critical appraisal of scientific articles, differences in research areas like epidemiology, clinical, and basic research are outlined. Further useful references are presented. Basic methodological knowledge is required to select and interpret scientific articles correctly.

Truth, Damn Truth, and Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Velleman, Paul F.

2008-01-01

Statisticians and Statistics teachers often have to push back against the popular impression that Statistics teaches how to lie with data. Those who believe incorrectly that Statistics is solely a branch of Mathematics (and thus algorithmic), often see the use of judgment in Statistics as evidence that we do indeed manipulate our results. In the…

The Effect of a Student-Designed Data Collection: Project on Attitudes toward Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carnell, Lisa J.

2008-01-01

Students often enter an introductory statistics class with less than positive attitudes about the subject. They tend to believe statistics is difficult and irrelevant to their lives. Observational evidence from previous studies suggests including projects in a statistics course may enhance students' attitudes toward statistics. This study examines…

Annual Research Briefs, 1987

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moin, Parviz; Reynolds, William C.

1988-01-01

Lagrangian techniques have found widespread application to the prediction and understanding of turbulent transport phenomena and have yielded satisfactory results for different cases of shear flow problems. However, it must be kept in mind that in most experiments what is really available are Eulerian statistics, and it is far from obvious how to extract from them the information relevant to the Lagrangian behavior of the flow; in consequence, Lagrangian models still include some hypothesis for which no adequate supporting evidence was until now available. Direct numerical simulation of turbulence offers a new way to obtain Lagrangian statistics and so verify the validity of the current predictive models and the accuracy of their results. After the pioneering work of Riley (Riley and Patterson, 1974) in the 70's, some such results have just appeared in the literature (Lee et al, Yeung and Pope). The present contribution follows in part similar lines, but focuses on two particle statistics and comparison with existing models.

Source credibility and evidence format: examining the effectiveness of HIV/AIDS messages for young African Americans.

PubMed

Major, Lesa Hatley; Coleman, Renita

2012-01-01

Using experimental methodology, this study tests the effectiveness of HIV/AIDS prevention messages tailored specifically to college-aged African Americans. To test interaction effects, it intersects source role and evidence format. The authors used gain-framed and loss-framed information specific to young African Americans and HIV to test message effectiveness between statistical and emotional evidence formats, and for the first time, a statistical/emotional combination format. It tests which source--physician or minister--that young African Americans believe is more effective when delivering HIV/AIDS messages to young African Americans. By testing the interaction between source credibility and evidence format, this research expands knowledge on creating effective health messages in several major areas. Findings include a significant interaction between the role of physician and the combined statistical/emotional format. This message was rated as the most effective way to deliver HIV/AIDS prevention messages.

Inclusion probability for DNA mixtures is a subjective one-sided match statistic unrelated to identification information

PubMed Central

Perlin, Mark William

2015-01-01

Background: DNA mixtures of two or more people are a common type of forensic crime scene evidence. A match statistic that connects the evidence to a criminal defendant is usually needed for court. Jurors rely on this strength of match to help decide guilt or innocence. However, the reliability of unsophisticated match statistics for DNA mixtures has been questioned. Materials and Methods: The most prevalent match statistic for DNA mixtures is the combined probability of inclusion (CPI), used by crime labs for over 15 years. When testing 13 short tandem repeat (STR) genetic loci, the CPI-1 value is typically around a million, regardless of DNA mixture composition. However, actual identification information, as measured by a likelihood ratio (LR), spans a much broader range. This study examined probability of inclusion (PI) mixture statistics for 517 locus experiments drawn from 16 reported cases and compared them with LR locus information calculated independently on the same data. The log(PI-1) values were examined and compared with corresponding log(LR) values. Results: The LR and CPI methods were compared in case examples of false inclusion, false exclusion, a homicide, and criminal justice outcomes. Statistical analysis of crime laboratory STR data shows that inclusion match statistics exhibit a truncated normal distribution having zero center, with little correlation to actual identification information. By the law of large numbers (LLN), CPI-1 increases with the number of tested genetic loci, regardless of DNA mixture composition or match information. These statistical findings explain why CPI is relatively constant, with implications for DNA policy, criminal justice, cost of crime, and crime prevention. Conclusions: Forensic crime laboratories have generated CPI statistics on hundreds of thousands of DNA mixture evidence items. However, this commonly used match statistic behaves like a random generator of inclusionary values, following the LLN rather than measuring identification information. A quantitative CPI number adds little meaningful information beyond the analyst's initial qualitative assessment that a person's DNA is included in a mixture. Statistical methods for reporting on DNA mixture evidence should be scientifically validated before they are relied upon by criminal justice. PMID:26605124

Inclusion probability for DNA mixtures is a subjective one-sided match statistic unrelated to identification information.

PubMed

Perlin, Mark William

2015-01-01

DNA mixtures of two or more people are a common type of forensic crime scene evidence. A match statistic that connects the evidence to a criminal defendant is usually needed for court. Jurors rely on this strength of match to help decide guilt or innocence. However, the reliability of unsophisticated match statistics for DNA mixtures has been questioned. The most prevalent match statistic for DNA mixtures is the combined probability of inclusion (CPI), used by crime labs for over 15 years. When testing 13 short tandem repeat (STR) genetic loci, the CPI(-1) value is typically around a million, regardless of DNA mixture composition. However, actual identification information, as measured by a likelihood ratio (LR), spans a much broader range. This study examined probability of inclusion (PI) mixture statistics for 517 locus experiments drawn from 16 reported cases and compared them with LR locus information calculated independently on the same data. The log(PI(-1)) values were examined and compared with corresponding log(LR) values. The LR and CPI methods were compared in case examples of false inclusion, false exclusion, a homicide, and criminal justice outcomes. Statistical analysis of crime laboratory STR data shows that inclusion match statistics exhibit a truncated normal distribution having zero center, with little correlation to actual identification information. By the law of large numbers (LLN), CPI(-1) increases with the number of tested genetic loci, regardless of DNA mixture composition or match information. These statistical findings explain why CPI is relatively constant, with implications for DNA policy, criminal justice, cost of crime, and crime prevention. Forensic crime laboratories have generated CPI statistics on hundreds of thousands of DNA mixture evidence items. However, this commonly used match statistic behaves like a random generator of inclusionary values, following the LLN rather than measuring identification information. A quantitative CPI number adds little meaningful information beyond the analyst's initial qualitative assessment that a person's DNA is included in a mixture. Statistical methods for reporting on DNA mixture evidence should be scientifically validated before they are relied upon by criminal justice.

Cognitive-behavioral therapy for premenstrual syndrome and premenstrual dysphoric disorder: a systematic review.

PubMed

Lustyk, M Kathleen B; Gerrish, Winslow G; Shaver, Shelley; Keys, Shaunie L

2009-04-01

We systematically reviewed empirical studies that investigated the use of cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for premenstrual syndrome (PMS) or premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD). Our multi-database search identified seven published empirical reports. Three were identified as randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The methods utilized to investigate therapeutic efficacy of CBT in these studies varied widely from case reports to RCTs with pharmacotherapy comparison groups. Initially we provide a brief overview of CBT and justifications for its potential use to treat PMS/PMDD. Next, we provide critical evaluations of the analyses used in each study focusing on the detection of intervention effects assessed by statistically significant time by group interactions. When possible we calculate effect sizes to elucidate the clinical significance of results. Our review revealed a dearth of evidence providing statistically significant CBT intervention effects. Issues such as overall time investment, latency to treatment effects, and complementary and combined therapies are considered. We present a theoretical argument for applying mindfulness- and acceptance-based CBT interventions to PMS/PMDD and suggest future research in this area. In conclusion, to produce the necessary evidence-base support for PMS/PMDD given the limited empirical evidence reported here, researchers are called on to produce methodologically rigorous investigations of psychosocial interventions for PMS/PMDD.

Lead isotope ratios for bullets, forensic evaluation in a Bayesian paradigm.

PubMed

Sjåstad, Knut-Endre; Lucy, David; Andersen, Tom

2016-01-01

Forensic science is a discipline concerned with collection, examination and evaluation of physical evidence related to criminal cases. The results from the activities of the forensic scientist may ultimately be presented to the court in such a way that the triers of fact understand the implications of the data. Forensic science has been, and still is, driven by development of new technology, and in the last two decades evaluation of evidence based on logical reasoning and Bayesian statistic has reached some level of general acceptance within the forensic community. Tracing of lead fragments of unknown origin to a given source of ammunition is a task that might be of interest for the Court. Use of data from lead isotope ratios analysis interpreted within a Bayesian framework has shown to be suitable method to guide the Court to draw their conclusion for such task. In this work we have used isotopic composition of lead from small arms projectiles (cal. .22) and developed an approach based on Bayesian statistics and likelihood ratio calculation. The likelihood ratio is a single quantity that provides a measure of the value of evidence that can be used in the deliberation of the court. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

2.5-Year-Olds Use Cross-Situational Consistency to Learn Verbs under Referential Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scott, Rose M.; Fisher, Cynthia

2012-01-01

Recent evidence shows that children can use cross-situational statistics to learn new object labels under referential ambiguity (e.g., Smith & Yu, 2008). Such evidence has been interpreted as support for proposals that statistical information about word-referent co-occurrence plays a powerful role in word learning. But object labels represent only…

Risk Comprehension and Judgments of Statistical Evidentiary Appeals: When a Picture Is Not Worth a Thousand Words

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parrott, Roxanne; Silk, Kami; Dorgan, Kelly; Condit, Celeste; Harris, Tina

2005-01-01

Too little theory and research has considered the effects of communicating statistics in various forms on comprehension, perceptions of evidence quality, or evaluations of message persuasiveness. In a considered extension of Subjective Message Construct Theory (Morley, 1987), we advance a rationale relating evidence form to the formation of…

Radon and risk of death from cancer and cardiovascular diseases in the German uranium miners cohort study: follow-up 1946-2003.

PubMed

Kreuzer, Michaela; Grosche, B; Schnelzer, M; Tschense, A; Dufey, F; Walsh, L

2010-05-01

Data from the German uranium miners cohort study were analyzed to investigate the radon-related risk of mortality from cancer and cardiovascular diseases. The Wismut cohort includes 58,987 men who were employed for at least 6 months from 1946 to 1989 at the former Wismut uranium mining company in Eastern Germany. By the end of 2003, a total of 3,016 lung cancer deaths, 3,355 deaths from extrapulmonary cancers, 5,141 deaths from heart diseases and 1,742 deaths from cerebrovascular diseases were observed. Although a number of studies have already been published on various endpoints in the Wismut cohort, the aim of the present analyses is to provide a direct comparison of the magnitude of radon-related risk for different cancer sites and cardiovascular diseases using the same data set, the same follow-up period and the same statistical methods. A specific focus on a group of cancers of the extrathoracic airways is also made here, due to the assumed high organ doses from absorbed radon progeny. Internal Poisson regression was used to estimate the excess relative risk (ERR) per unit of cumulative exposure to radon in working level months (WLM) and its 95% confidence limits (CI). There was a statistically significant increase in the risk of lung cancer with increasing radon exposure (ERR/WLM = 0.19%; 95% CI: 0.17%; 0.22%). A smaller, but also statistically significant excess was found for cancers of the extrathoracic airways and trachea (ERR/WLM = 0.062%; 95% CI: 0.002%; 0.121%). Most of the remaining nonrespiratory cancer sites showed a positive relationship with increasing radon exposure, which, however, did not reach statistical significance. No increase in risk was noted for coronary heart diseases (ERR/WLM = 0.0003%) and cerebrovascular diseases (ERR/WLM = 0.001%). The present data provide clear evidence of an increased radon-related risk of death from lung cancer, some evidence for an increased radon-related risk of death from cancers of the extrathoracic airways and some other extrapulmonary cancers, and no evidence for mortality from cardiovascular diseases. These findings are consistent with the results of other miner studies and dosimetric calculations for radon-related organ doses.

Does concomitant tricuspid annuloplasty increase perioperative mortality and morbidity when correcting left-sided valve disease?

PubMed

Zhu, Tie-Yuan; Wang, Jian-Gang; Meng, Xu

2015-01-01

A best evidence topic in adult valvular surgery was written according to a structured protocol. The question addressed was 'Does concomitant tricuspid annuloplasty increase the perioperative mortality and morbidity when correcting left-sided valve disease?' A total of 561 papers were found using the reported search, of which 12 presented the best evidence to answer the clinical question. The authors, country, journal, date of publication, patient group studied, study type, relevant outcomes and results of these papers are tabulated. Among these 12 papers, there were nine retrospective studies, two cohort studies and one randomized controlled trial (RCT). Overall, additional tricuspid valve (TV) repair takes more time during operations, particularly with a ring annuloplasty method. The mean aortic cross-clamping times were 57-83 min without associated tricuspid repair and 62-100 min with, and cardiopulmonary bypass times without and with repair were 82-124 and 90-174 min, respectively. A study of 624 patients who had undergone isolated mitral valve (MV) surgery and MV surgery plus TV repair showed more female and atrial fibrillation patients in the tricuspid valve plasty (TVP) group, but no increase in the 30-day mortality was found. One RCT, presenting similar patient baseline characteristics, also found no difference in the hospital mortality rates between the TVP group and the non-TVP group. Another 10 studies also demonstrated no statistically significant differences in perioperative mortality. In a cohort study of 311 patients undergoing MV repair with or without tricuspid annuloplasty, postoperative complications, such as bleeding, stroke, pacemaker, haemofiltration and myocardial infarction, all showed no statistically significant differences in the two groups. One study retrospectively analysed a large number of patients undergoing either isolated left-sided valve surgery or a concomitant TV repair, and there were no statistically significant differences regarding major complications (bleeding, pacemaker, respiratory insufficiency, and renal failure). Moreover, another three studies also found no statistically significant differences in terms of bleeding, pacemaker, wound infection, neurological deficit, pericardial effusion, low cardiac output syndrome and dialysis. In conclusion, there is good evidence to support that tricuspid annuloplasty is a low-risk procedure and concomitant TV repair does not significantly increase the perioperative mortality and morbidity when correcting left-sided valve disease. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Plastic Surgery Statistics in the US: Evidence and Implications.

PubMed

Heidekrueger, Paul I; Juran, Sabrina; Patel, Anup; Tanna, Neil; Broer, P Niclas

2016-04-01

The American Society of Plastic Surgeons publishes yearly procedural statistics, collected through questionnaires and online via tracking operations and outcomes for plastic surgeons (TOPS). The statistics, disaggregated by U.S. region, leave two important factors unaccounted for: (1) the underlying base population and (2) the number of surgeons performing the procedures. The presented analysis puts the regional distribution of surgeries into perspective and contributes to fulfilling the TOPS legislation objectives. ASPS statistics from 2005 to 2013 were analyzed by geographic region in the U.S. Using population estimates from the 2010 U.S. Census Bureau, procedures were calculated per 100,000 population. Then, based on the ASPS member roster, the rate of surgeries per surgeon by region was calculated and the interaction of these two variables was related to each other. In 2013, 1668,420 esthetic surgeries were performed in the U.S., resulting in the following ASPS ranking: 1st Mountain/Pacific (Region 5; 502,094 procedures, 30 % share), 2nd New England/Middle Atlantic (Region 1; 319,515, 19 %), 3rd South Atlantic (Region 3; 310,441, 19 %), 4th East/West South Central (Region 4; 274,282, 16 %), and 5th East/West North Central (Region 2; 262,088, 16 %). However, considering underlying populations, distribution and ranking appear to be different, displaying a smaller variance in surgical demand. Further, the number of surgeons and rate of procedures show great regional variation. Demand for plastic surgery is influenced by patients' geographic background and varies among U.S. regions. While ASPS data provide important information, additional insight regarding the demand for surgical procedures can be gained by taking certain demographic factors into consideration. This journal requires that the authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jewitt, David, E-mail: jewitt@ucla.edu

Asteroids near the Sun can attain equilibrium temperatures sufficient to induce surface modification from thermal fracture, desiccation, and decomposition of hydrated silicates. We present optical observations of nine asteroids with perihelia <0.25 AU (sub-solar temperatures {>=}800 K) taken to search for evidence of thermal modification. We find that the broadband colors of these objects are diverse but statistically indistinguishable from those of planet-crossing asteroids having perihelia near 1 AU. Furthermore, images of these bodies taken away from perihelion show no evidence for on-going mass-loss (model-dependent limits {approx}<1 kg s{sup -1}) that might result from thermal disintegration of the surface. Wemore » conclude that, while thermal modification may be an important process in the decay of near-Sun asteroids and in the production of debris, our new data provide no evidence for it.« less

45 CFR 160.536 - Statistical sampling.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Statistical sampling. 160.536 Section 160.536... REQUIREMENTS GENERAL ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENTS Procedures for Hearings § 160.536 Statistical sampling. (a) In... statistical sampling study as evidence of the number of violations under § 160.406 of this part, or the...

42 CFR 1003.133 - Statistical sampling.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 42 Public Health 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Statistical sampling. 1003.133 Section 1003.133... AUTHORITIES CIVIL MONEY PENALTIES, ASSESSMENTS AND EXCLUSIONS § 1003.133 Statistical sampling. (a) In meeting... statistical sampling study as evidence of the number and amount of claims and/or requests for payment as...

45 CFR 160.536 - Statistical sampling.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Statistical sampling. 160.536 Section 160.536... REQUIREMENTS GENERAL ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENTS Procedures for Hearings § 160.536 Statistical sampling. (a) In... statistical sampling study as evidence of the number of violations under § 160.406 of this part, or the...

42 CFR 1003.133 - Statistical sampling.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Statistical sampling. 1003.133 Section 1003.133... AUTHORITIES CIVIL MONEY PENALTIES, ASSESSMENTS AND EXCLUSIONS § 1003.133 Statistical sampling. (a) In meeting... statistical sampling study as evidence of the number and amount of claims and/or requests for payment as...

Heads Up! a Calculation- & Jargon-Free Approach to Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Giese, Alan R.

2012-01-01

Evaluating the strength of evidence in noisy data is a critical step in scientific thinking that typically relies on statistics. Students without statistical training will benefit from heuristic models that highlight the logic of statistical analysis. The likelihood associated with various coin-tossing outcomes gives students such a model. There…

Evidence for collective expansion in light-particle emission following Au+Au collisions at 100, 150 and 250 A·MeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poggi, G.; Pasquali, G.; Bini, M.; Maurenzig, P.; Olmi, A.; Taccetti, N.; Alard, J. P.; Amouroux, V.; Basrak, Z.; Bastid, N.; Belayev, I. M.; Berger, L.; Blaich, Th.; Boussange, S.; Buta, A.; Čaplar, R.; Cerruti, C.; Cindro, N.; Coffin, J. P.; Donà, R.; Dupieux, P.; Dželalija, M.; Erö, J.; Fan, Z. G.; Fintz, P.; Fodor, Z.; Fraysse, L.; Freifelder, R.; Frolov, S.; Gobbi, A.; Grigorian, Y.; Guillaume, G.; Herrmann, N.; Hildenbrand, K. D.; Hölbling, S.; Houari, A.; Jeong, S. C.; Jundt, F.; Kecskemeti, J.; Koncz, P.; Korchagin, Y.; Kotte, R.; Krämer, M.; Kuhn, C.; Ibnouzahir, M.; Legrand, I.; Lebedev, A.; Maguire, C.; Manko, V.; Mgebrishvili, G.; Mösner, J.; Moisa, D.; Montarou, G.; Montbel, I.; Morel, P.; Neubert, W.; Pelte, D.; Petrovici, M.; Rami, F.; Ramillien, V.; Reisdorf, W.; Sadchikov, A.; Schüll, D.; Seres, Z.; Sikora, B.; Simion, V.; Smolyankin, S.; Sodan, U.; The, K.; Tezkratt, R.; Trzaska, M.; Vasiliev, M. A.; Wagner, P.; Wessels, J. P.; Wienold, T.; Wilhelmi, Z.; Wohlfarth, D.; Zhilin, A. V.; Danielewicz, P.; FOPI Collaboration

1995-02-01

Light-particle emission from Au+Au collisions has been studied in the bombarding-energy range 100-250 A·MeV, using ΔE- ER telescopes in coincidence with the FOPI detector in its phase I configuration. Center-of-mass energy spectra have been measured for Z = 1,2 isotopes emitted in central collisions at CM polar angles between 60° and 90°. Evidence for a collective expansion is reported, on the basis of the mean kinetic energies of hydrogen isotopes. Comparison is presented with statistical calculations (WIX code). For CM kinetic energy spectra, fair agreement is found between data and a recently developed transport model.

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

PubMed

Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

2018-02-01

Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.

Increased left hemisphere impairment in high-functioning autism: a tract based spatial statistics study.

PubMed

Perkins, Thomas John; Stokes, Mark Andrew; McGillivray, Jane Anne; Mussap, Alexander Julien; Cox, Ivanna Anne; Maller, Jerome Joseph; Bittar, Richard Garth

2014-11-30

There is evidence emerging from Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) research that autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are associated with greater impairment in the left hemisphere. Although this has been quantified with volumetric region of interest analyses, it has yet to be tested with white matter integrity analysis. In the present study, tract based spatial statistics was used to contrast white matter integrity of 12 participants with high-functioning autism or Aspergers syndrome (HFA/AS) with 12 typically developing individuals. Fractional Anisotropy (FA) was examined, in addition to axial, radial and mean diffusivity (AD, RD and MD). In the left hemisphere, participants with HFA/AS demonstrated significantly reduced FA in predominantly thalamic and fronto-parietal pathways and increased RD. Symmetry analyses confirmed that in the HFA/AS group, WM disturbance was significantly greater in the left compared to right hemisphere. These findings contribute to a growing body of literature suggestive of reduced FA in ASD, and provide preliminary evidence for RD impairments in the left hemisphere. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computerized EEG analysis for studying the effect of drugs on the central nervous system.

PubMed

Rosadini, G; Cavazza, B; Rodriguez, G; Sannita, W G; Siccardi, A

1977-11-01

Samples of our experience in quantitative pharmaco-EEG are reviewed to discuss and define its applicability and limits. Simple processing systems, such as the computation of Hjorth's descriptors, are useful for on-line monitoring of drug-induced EEG modifications which are evident also at the visual visual analysis. Power spectral analysis is suitable to identify and quantify EEG effects not evident at the visual inspection. It demonstrated how the EEG effects of compounds in a long-acting formulation vary according to the sampling time and the explored cerebral area. EEG modifications not detected by power spectral analysis can be defined by comparing statistically (F test) the spectral values of the EEG from a single lead at the different samples (longitudinal comparison), or the spectral values from different leads at any sample (intrahemispheric comparison). The presently available procedures of quantitative pharmaco-EEG are effective when applied to the study of mutltilead EEG recordings in a statistically significant sample of population. They do not seem reliable in the monitoring of directing of neuropyschiatric therapies in single patients, due to individual variability of drug effects.

Practice-based evidence study design for comparative effectiveness research.

PubMed

Horn, Susan D; Gassaway, Julie

2007-10-01

To describe a new, rigorous, comprehensive practice-based evidence for clinical practice improvement (PBE-CPI) study methodology, and compare its features, advantages, and disadvantages to those of randomized controlled trials and sophisticated statistical methods for comparative effectiveness research. PBE-CPI incorporates natural variation within data from routine clinical practice to determine what works, for whom, when, and at what cost. It uses the knowledge of front-line caregivers, who develop study questions and define variables as part of a transdisciplinary team. Its comprehensive measurement framework provides a basis for analyses of significant bivariate and multivariate associations between treatments and outcomes, controlling for patient differences, such as severity of illness. PBE-CPI studies can uncover better practices more quickly than randomized controlled trials or sophisticated statistical methods, while achieving many of the same advantages. We present examples of actionable findings from PBE-CPI studies in postacute care settings related to comparative effectiveness of medications, nutritional support approaches, incontinence products, physical therapy activities, and other services. Outcomes improved when practices associated with better outcomes in PBE-CPI analyses were adopted in practice.

Exchanging the liquidity hypothesis: Delay discounting of money and self-relevant non-money rewards

PubMed Central

Stuppy-Sullivan, Allison M.; Tormohlen, Kayla N.; Yi, Richard

2015-01-01

Evidence that primary rewards (e.g., food and drugs of abuse) are discounted more than money is frequently attributed to money's high degree of liquidity, or exchangeability for many commodities. The present study provides some evidence against this liquidity hypothesis by contrasting delay discounting of monetary rewards (liquid) and non-monetary commodities (non-liquid) that are self-relevant and utility-matched. Ninety-seven (97) undergraduate students initially completed a conventional binary-choice delay discounting of money task. Participants returned one week later and completed a self-relevant commodity delay discounting task. Both conventional hypothesis testing and more-conservative tests of statistical equivalence revealed correspondence in rate of delay discounting of money and self-relevant commodities, and in one magnitude condition, less discounting for the latter. The present results indicate that liquidity of money cannot fully account for the lower rate of delay discounting compared to non-money rewards. PMID:26556504

Temperature and Voltage Offsets in High- ZT Thermoelectrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, George S.

2018-06-01

Thermodynamic temperature can take on different meanings. Kinetic temperature is an expectation value and a function of the kinetic energy distribution. Statistical temperature is a parameter of the distribution. Kinetic temperature and statistical temperature, identical in Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics, can differ in other statistics such as those of Fermi-Dirac or Bose-Einstein when a field is present. Thermal equilibrium corresponds to zero statistical temperature gradient, not zero kinetic temperature gradient. Since heat carriers in thermoelectrics are fermions, the difference between these two temperatures may explain voltage and temperature offsets observed during meticulous Seebeck measurements in which the temperature-voltage curve does not go through the origin. In conventional semiconductors, temperature offsets produced by fermionic electrical carriers are not observable because they are shorted by heat phonons in the lattice. In high- ZT materials, however, these offsets have been detected but attributed to faulty laboratory procedures. Additional supporting evidence for spontaneous voltages and temperature gradients includes data collected in epistatic experiments and in the plasma Q-machine. Device fabrication guidelines for testing the hypothesis are suggested including using unipolar junctions stacked in a superlattice, alternating n/ n + and p/ p + junctions, selecting appropriate dimensions, doping, and loading.

A Statistical Study of Eiscat Electron and Ion Temperature Measurements In The E-region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussey, G.; Haldoupis, C.; Schlegel, K.; Bösinger, T.

Motivated by the large EISCAT data base, which covers over 15 years of common programme operation, and previous statistical work with EISCAT data (e.g., C. Hal- doupis, K. Schlegel, and G. Hussey, Auroral E-region electron density gradients mea- sured with EISCAT, Ann. Geopshysicae, 18, 1172-1181, 2000), a detailed statistical analysis of electron and ion EISCAT temperature measurements has been undertaken. This study was specifically concerned with the statistical dependence of heating events with other ambient parameters such as the electric field and electron density. The re- sults showed previously reported dependences such as the electron temperature being directly correlated with the ambient electric field and inversely related to the electron density. However, these correlations were found to be also dependent upon altitude. There was also evidence of the so called "Schlegel effect" (K. Schlegel, Reduced effective recombination coefficient in the disturbed polar E-region, J. Atmos. Terr. Phys., 44, 183-185, 1982); that is, the heated electron gas leads to increases in elec- tron density through a reduction in the recombination rate. This paper will present the statistical heating results and attempt to offer physical explanations and interpretations of the findings.

Temperature and Voltage Offsets in High-ZT Thermoelectrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, George S.

2017-10-01

Thermodynamic temperature can take on different meanings. Kinetic temperature is an expectation value and a function of the kinetic energy distribution. Statistical temperature is a parameter of the distribution. Kinetic temperature and statistical temperature, identical in Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics, can differ in other statistics such as those of Fermi-Dirac or Bose-Einstein when a field is present. Thermal equilibrium corresponds to zero statistical temperature gradient, not zero kinetic temperature gradient. Since heat carriers in thermoelectrics are fermions, the difference between these two temperatures may explain voltage and temperature offsets observed during meticulous Seebeck measurements in which the temperature-voltage curve does not go through the origin. In conventional semiconductors, temperature offsets produced by fermionic electrical carriers are not observable because they are shorted by heat phonons in the lattice. In high-ZT materials, however, these offsets have been detected but attributed to faulty laboratory procedures. Additional supporting evidence for spontaneous voltages and temperature gradients includes data collected in epistatic experiments and in the plasma Q-machine. Device fabrication guidelines for testing the hypothesis are suggested including using unipolar junctions stacked in a superlattice, alternating n/n + and p/p + junctions, selecting appropriate dimensions, doping, and loading.

The kappa statistic in rehabilitation research: an examination.

PubMed

Tooth, Leigh R; Ottenbacher, Kenneth J

2004-08-01

The number and sophistication of statistical procedures reported in medical rehabilitation research is increasing. Application of the principles and methods associated with evidence-based practice has contributed to the need for rehabilitation practitioners to understand quantitative methods in published articles. Outcomes measurement and determination of reliability are areas that have experienced rapid change during the past decade. In this study, distinctions between reliability and agreement are examined. Information is presented on analytical approaches for addressing reliability and agreement with the focus on the application of the kappa statistic. The following assumptions are discussed: (1) kappa should be used with data measured on a categorical scale, (2) the patients or objects categorized should be independent, and (3) the observers or raters must make their measurement decisions and judgments independently. Several issues related to using kappa in measurement studies are described, including use of weighted kappa, methods of reporting kappa, the effect of bias and prevalence on kappa, and sample size and power requirements for kappa. The kappa statistic is useful for assessing agreement among raters, and it is being used more frequently in rehabilitation research. Correct interpretation of the kappa statistic depends on meeting the required assumptions and accurate reporting.

Spectral likelihood expansions for Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagel, Joseph B.; Sudret, Bruno

2016-03-01

A spectral approach to Bayesian inference is presented. It pursues the emulation of the posterior probability density. The starting point is a series expansion of the likelihood function in terms of orthogonal polynomials. From this spectral likelihood expansion all statistical quantities of interest can be calculated semi-analytically. The posterior is formally represented as the product of a reference density and a linear combination of polynomial basis functions. Both the model evidence and the posterior moments are related to the expansion coefficients. This formulation avoids Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and allows one to make use of linear least squares instead. The pros and cons of spectral Bayesian inference are discussed and demonstrated on the basis of simple applications from classical statistics and inverse modeling.

DETECTING UNSPECIFIED STRUCTURE IN LOW-COUNT IMAGES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stein, Nathan M.; Dyk, David A. van; Kashyap, Vinay L.

Unexpected structure in images of astronomical sources often presents itself upon visual inspection of the image, but such apparent structure may either correspond to true features in the source or be due to noise in the data. This paper presents a method for testing whether inferred structure in an image with Poisson noise represents a significant departure from a baseline (null) model of the image. To infer image structure, we conduct a Bayesian analysis of a full model that uses a multiscale component to allow flexible departures from the posited null model. As a test statistic, we use a tailmore » probability of the posterior distribution under the full model. This choice of test statistic allows us to estimate a computationally efficient upper bound on a p-value that enables us to draw strong conclusions even when there are limited computational resources that can be devoted to simulations under the null model. We demonstrate the statistical performance of our method on simulated images. Applying our method to an X-ray image of the quasar 0730+257, we find significant evidence against the null model of a single point source and uniform background, lending support to the claim of an X-ray jet.« less

A pathway in the brainstem for roll-tilt of the subjective visual vertical: evidence from a lesion-behavior mapping study.

PubMed

Baier, Bernhard; Thömke, Frank; Wilting, Janine; Heinze, Caroline; Geber, Christian; Dieterich, Marianne

2012-10-24

The perceived subjective visual vertical (SVV) is an important sign of a vestibular otolith tone imbalance in the roll plane. Previous studies suggested that unilateral pontomedullary brainstem lesions cause ipsiversive roll-tilt of SVV, whereas pontomesencephalic lesions cause contraversive roll-tilts of SVV. However, previous data were of limited quality and lacked a statistical approach. We therefore tested roll-tilt of the SVV in 79 human patients with acute unilateral brainstem lesions due to stroke by applying modern statistical lesion-behavior mapping analysis. Roll-tilt of the SVV was verified to be a brainstem sign, and for the first time it was confirmed statistically that lesions of the medial longitudinal fasciculus (MLF) and the medial vestibular nucleus are associated with ipsiversive tilt of the SVV, whereas contraversive tilts are associated with lesions affecting the rostral interstitial nucleus of the MLF, the superior cerebellar peduncle, the oculomotor nucleus, and the interstitial nucleus of Cajal. Thus, these structures constitute the anatomical pathway in the brainstem for verticality perception. Present data indicate that graviceptive otolith signals present a predominant role in the multisensory system of verticality perception.

Quantitatively measured tremor in hand-arm vibration-exposed workers.

PubMed

Edlund, Maria; Burström, Lage; Hagberg, Mats; Lundström, Ronnie; Nilsson, Tohr; Sandén, Helena; Wastensson, Gunilla

2015-04-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the possible increase in hand tremor in relation to hand-arm vibration (HAV) exposure in a cohort of exposed and unexposed workers. Participants were 178 male workers with or without exposure to HAV. The study is cross-sectional regarding the outcome of tremor and has a longitudinal design with respect to exposure. The dose of HAV exposure was collected via questionnaires and measurements at several follow-ups. The CATSYS Tremor Pen(®) was used for measuring postural tremor. Multiple linear regression methods were used to analyze associations between different tremor variables and HAV exposure, along with predictor variables with biological relevance. There were no statistically significant associations between the different tremor variables and cumulative HAV or current exposure. Age was a statistically significant predictor of variation in tremor outcomes for three of the four tremor variables, whereas nicotine use was a statistically significant predictor of either left or right hand or both hands for all four tremor variables. In the present study, there was no evidence of an exposure-response association between HAV exposure and measured postural tremor. Increase in age and nicotine use appeared to be the strongest predictors of tremor.

Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence: The Case of Non-Local Perception, a Classical and Bayesian Review of Evidences

PubMed Central

Tressoldi, Patrizio E.

2011-01-01

Starting from the famous phrase “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” we will present the evidence supporting the concept that human visual perception may have non-local properties, in other words, that it may operate beyond the space and time constraints of sensory organs, in order to discuss which criteria can be used to define evidence as extraordinary. This evidence has been obtained from seven databases which are related to six different protocols used to test the reality and the functioning of non-local perception, analyzed using both a frequentist and a new Bayesian meta-analysis statistical procedure. According to a frequentist meta-analysis, the null hypothesis can be rejected for all six protocols even if the effect sizes range from 0.007 to 0.28. According to Bayesian meta-analysis, the Bayes factors provides strong evidence to support the alternative hypothesis (H1) over the null hypothesis (H0), but only for three out of the six protocols. We will discuss whether quantitative psychology can contribute to defining the criteria for the acceptance of new scientific ideas in order to avoid the inconclusive controversies between supporters and opponents. PMID:21713069

Clinical study of Mineral Trioxide Aggregate in primary molars. Comparison between Grey and White MTA--a long term follow-up (84 months).

PubMed

Cardoso-Silva, Cristina; Barbería, Elena; Maroto, Myriam; García-Godoy, Franklin

2011-02-01

The aim of the present study was to conduct a clinical and radiographic long-term evaluation of pulpotomy in temporary molars performed with Grey and White Mineral Trioxide Aggregate (MTA) and compare the results of Grey and White MTA pulpotomies in a sample of 233 primary molars with a maximum follow-up period of 84 months. The sample was selected from patients treated at the Department of Pediatric Dentistry, Faculty of Dentistry, Complutense University of Madrid, Spain. This prospective study included first and second primary molars treated with pulpotomy with Grey or White MTA, controlled for a maximum follow-up period of 84 months. Statistical analysis of clinical and radiographic findings was completed using ANOVA (P<0.05). Follow-up evaluations, performed every 6 months, revealed that only 2 molars treated with White MTA presented abscess and pathological mobility. Radiographic examination of the 210 molars revealed unfavourable pulp response in only 6 molars (internal or furcation root resorption), without statistically significant differences between Grey and White MTA. Two radiological findings were noticed: dentine bridge formation and partial or total root canal stenosis. Grey MTA induced a higher percentage of dentine bridges with statistically significant differences (P<0.05), and a higher percentage of pulp canal stenosis, without a statistically significant difference. Grey and White MTA presented high levels of clinical and radiographic success. Although the present study showed evidence of a very good biologic response with both types of MTA, Grey MTA showed significantly higher number of dentine bridge formation than White MTA. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Some new results on the statistics of radio wave scintillation. I - Empirical evidence for Gaussian statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rino, C. L.; Livingston, R. C.; Whitney, H. E.

1976-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of ionospheric scintillation data which shows that the underlying statistical structure of the signal can be accurately modeled by the additive complex Gaussian perturbation predicted by the Born approximation in conjunction with an application of the central limit theorem. By making use of this fact, it is possible to estimate the in-phase, phase quadrature, and cophased scattered power by curve fitting to measured intensity histograms. By using this procedure, it is found that typically more than 80% of the scattered power is in phase quadrature with the undeviated signal component. Thus, the signal is modeled by a Gaussian, but highly non-Rician process. From simultaneous UHF and VHF data, only a weak dependence of this statistical structure on changes in the Fresnel radius is deduced. The signal variance is found to have a nonquadratic wavelength dependence. It is hypothesized that this latter effect is a subtle manifestation of locally homogeneous irregularity structures, a mathematical model proposed by Kolmogorov (1941) in his early studies of incompressible fluid turbulence.

Subjective Ratings of Beauty and Aesthetics: Correlations With Statistical Image Properties in Western Oil Paintings

PubMed Central

Lehmann, Thomas; Redies, Christoph

2017-01-01

For centuries, oil paintings have been a major segment of the visual arts. The JenAesthetics data set consists of a large number of high-quality images of oil paintings of Western provenance from different art periods. With this database, we studied the relationship between objective image measures and subjective evaluations of the images, especially evaluations on aesthetics (defined as artistic value) and beauty (defined as individual liking). The objective measures represented low-level statistical image properties that have been associated with aesthetic value in previous research. Subjective rating scores on aesthetics and beauty correlated not only with each other but also with different combinations of the objective measures. Furthermore, we found that paintings from different art periods vary with regard to the objective measures, that is, they exhibit specific patterns of statistical image properties. In addition, clusters of participants preferred different combinations of these properties. In conclusion, the results of the present study provide evidence that statistical image properties vary between art periods and subject matters and, in addition, they correlate with the subjective evaluation of paintings by the participants. PMID:28694958

Statistical flaws in design and analysis of fertility treatment studies on cryopreservation raise doubts on the conclusions

PubMed Central

van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Nijs, M.

2011-01-01

Decisions about pharmacotherapy are being taken by medical doctors and authorities based on comparative studies on the use of medications. In studies on fertility treatments in particular, the methodological quality is of utmost importance in the application of evidence-based medicine and systematic reviews. Nevertheless, flaws and omissions appear quite regularly in these types of studies. Current study aims to present an overview of some of the typical statistical flaws, illustrated by a number of example studies which have been published in peer reviewed journals. Based on an investigation of eleven studies at random selected on fertility treatments with cryopreservation, it appeared that the methodological quality of these studies often did not fulfil the required statistical criteria. The following statistical flaws were identified: flaws in study design, patient selection, and units of analysis or in the definition of the primary endpoints. Other errors could be found in p-value and power calculations or in critical p-value definitions. Proper interpretation of the results and/or use of these study results in a meta analysis should therefore be conducted with care. PMID:24753877

Statistical flaws in design and analysis of fertility treatment -studies on cryopreservation raise doubts on the conclusions.

PubMed

van Gelder, P H A J M; Nijs, M

2011-01-01

Decisions about pharmacotherapy are being taken by medical doctors and authorities based on comparative studies on the use of medications. In studies on fertility treatments in particular, the methodological quality is of utmost -importance in the application of evidence-based medicine and systematic reviews. Nevertheless, flaws and omissions appear quite regularly in these types of studies. Current study aims to present an overview of some of the typical statistical flaws, illustrated by a number of example studies which have been published in peer reviewed journals. Based on an investigation of eleven studies at random selected on fertility treatments with cryopreservation, it appeared that the methodological quality of these studies often did not fulfil the -required statistical criteria. The following statistical flaws were identified: flaws in study design, patient selection, and units of analysis or in the definition of the primary endpoints. Other errors could be found in p-value and power calculations or in critical p-value definitions. Proper -interpretation of the results and/or use of these study results in a meta analysis should therefore be conducted with care.

The Effect of Student-Driven Projects on the Development of Statistical Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sovak, Melissa M.

2010-01-01

Research has shown that even if students pass a standard introductory statistics course, they often still lack the ability to reason statistically. Many instructional techniques for enhancing the development of statistical reasoning have been discussed, although there is often little to no experimental evidence that they produce effective results…

Debating Curricular Strategies for Teaching Statistics and Research Methods: What Does the Current Evidence Suggest?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barron, Kenneth E.; Apple, Kevin J.

2014-01-01

Coursework in statistics and research methods is a core requirement in most undergraduate psychology programs. However, is there an optimal way to structure and sequence methodology courses to facilitate student learning? For example, should statistics be required before research methods, should research methods be required before statistics, or…

Using Statistical Natural Language Processing for Understanding Complex Responses to Free-Response Tasks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeMark, Sarah F.; Behrens, John T.

2004-01-01

Whereas great advances have been made in the statistical sophistication of assessments in terms of evidence accumulation and task selection, relatively little statistical work has explored the possibility of applying statistical techniques to data for the purposes of determining appropriate domain understanding and to generate task-level scoring…

Fostering Change in College Students' Statistical Reasoning and Motivation through Statistical Investigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramirez-Faghih, Caroline Ann

2012-01-01

The goal of this study was to examine the reciprocal relationship between statistical investigation and motivation of college students in a Mathematical Reasoning course (Math 1). Unlike previous studies in which students' projects or statistical investigations have been examined as the final product that shows evidence of statistical…

Lichen planus affecting the female genitalia: A retrospective review of patients at Mayo Clinic.

PubMed

Fahy, Caoimhe M R; Torgerson, Rochelle R; Davis, Mark D P

2017-12-01

Genital or vulval lichen planus (VLP) may have a disabling effect on a patient's quality of life. Evidence-based management guidelines are lacking for VLP. We sought to review clinical presentation and treatment of patients who received a diagnosis of VLP. The 100 consecutive patients who received a diagnosis of VLP at Mayo Clinic between January 1, 1997, and December 31, 2015, were reviewed retrospectively. Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. Fisher's exact test and the Wilcoxon rank sum test were used for analysis of categorical and continuous variables, respectively. All statistical tests were 2 sided, with the α level set at .05 for statistical significance. The time to diagnosis for 49% of patients was more than 1 year. Three patients (3%) had vulval dysplasia, including invasive squamous cell carcinoma. Sixty-eight patients (68%) had multisite lichen planus disease. Eleven patients (11%) had disease remission. Dermatology was the lead specialty for 9 of these cases of remission. This was a retrospective, small-cohort study. A low frequency of disease remission was seen in patients with VLP. Patients with lichen planus benefit considerably from dermatology consultation. Further research is warranted to establish high-quality, evidence-based guidelines for multidisciplinary management of this challenging disease. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A method of classification for multisource data in remote sensing based on interval-valued probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Hakil; Swain, Philip H.

1990-01-01

An axiomatic approach to intervalued (IV) probabilities is presented, where the IV probability is defined by a pair of set-theoretic functions which satisfy some pre-specified axioms. On the basis of this approach representation of statistical evidence and combination of multiple bodies of evidence are emphasized. Although IV probabilities provide an innovative means for the representation and combination of evidential information, they make the decision process rather complicated. It entails more intelligent strategies for making decisions. The development of decision rules over IV probabilities is discussed from the viewpoint of statistical pattern recognition. The proposed method, so called evidential reasoning method, is applied to the ground-cover classification of a multisource data set consisting of Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and digital terrain data such as elevation, slope, and aspect. By treating the data sources separately, the method is able to capture both parametric and nonparametric information and to combine them. Then the method is applied to two separate cases of classifying multiband data obtained by a single sensor. In each case a set of multiple sources is obtained by dividing the dimensionally huge data into smaller and more manageable pieces based on the global statistical correlation information. By a divide-and-combine process, the method is able to utilize more features than the conventional maximum likelihood method.

Resister's logic: the anti-vaccination arguments of Alfred Russel Wallace and their role in the debates over compulsory vaccination in England, 1870-1907.

PubMed

Fichman, Martin; Keelan, Jennifer E

2007-09-01

In the 1880s, Alfred Russel Wallace, the celebrated co-discoverer of natural selection, launched himself into the centre of a politicised and polarised debate over the unpopular compulsory vaccination laws in England. Wallace never wavered in his belief that smallpox vaccination was useless and likely dangerous. Six years before his death, the anti-vaccinationists successfully secured a conscience clause that effectively dismantled the compulsory vaccination laws. Several other important Victorian scientists joined Wallace in the fight to repeal compulsory vaccination arguing that widely held views on the effectiveness of vaccination and evidence for immunity were inconclusive in the light of (then) contemporary standards of evidence. This article situates Wallace's anti-vaccination logic within the broader matrix of sociopolitical and cultural reform movements of the late Victorian era. Additionally it provides the first detailed analysis of his critique of vaccination science, in particular the role statistics played in his arguments. In this period, both pro-vaccinationists and anti-vaccinationists invested great efforts in collating and analysing statistical data sets that either supported or refuted the claims of vaccination's effectiveness. While each side presented 'controlled' case studies to support their assertions, without an unambiguous test to measure or demonstrate vaccination's effectiveness, the anti-vaccinationists continued to mount credible statistical critiques of vaccination science.

Tests for qualitative treatment-by-centre interaction using a 'pushback' procedure.

PubMed

Ciminera, J L; Heyse, J F; Nguyen, H H; Tukey, J W

1993-06-15

In multicentre clinical trials using a common protocol, the centres are usually regarded as being a fixed factor, thus allowing any treatment-by-centre interaction to be omitted from the error term for the effect of treatment. However, we feel it necessary to use the treatment-by-centre interaction as the error term if there is substantial evidence that the interaction with centres is qualitative instead of quantitative. To make allowance for the estimated uncertainties of the centre means, we propose choosing a reference value (for example, the median of the ordered array of centre means) and converting the individual centre results into standardized deviations from the reference value. The deviations are then reordered, and the results 'pushed back' by amounts appropriate for the corresponding order statistics in a sample from the relevant distribution. The pushed-back standardized deviations are then restored to the original scale. The appearance of opposite signs among the destandardized values for the various centres is then taken as 'substantial evidence' of qualitative interaction. Procedures are presented using, in any combination: (i) Gaussian, or Student's t-distribution; (ii) order-statistic medians or outward 90 per cent points of the corresponding order statistic distributions; (iii) pooling or grouping and pooling the internally estimated standard deviations of the centre means. The use of the least conservative combination--Student's t, outward 90 per cent points, grouping and pooling--is recommended.

Bayesian evaluation of effect size after replicating an original study

PubMed Central

van Aert, Robbie C. M.; van Assen, Marcel A. L. M.

2017-01-01

The vast majority of published results in the literature is statistically significant, which raises concerns about their reliability. The Reproducibility Project Psychology (RPP) and Experimental Economics Replication Project (EE-RP) both replicated a large number of published studies in psychology and economics. The original study and replication were statistically significant in 36.1% in RPP and 68.8% in EE-RP suggesting many null effects among the replicated studies. However, evidence in favor of the null hypothesis cannot be examined with null hypothesis significance testing. We developed a Bayesian meta-analysis method called snapshot hybrid that is easy to use and understand and quantifies the amount of evidence in favor of a zero, small, medium and large effect. The method computes posterior model probabilities for a zero, small, medium, and large effect and adjusts for publication bias by taking into account that the original study is statistically significant. We first analytically approximate the methods performance, and demonstrate the necessity to control for the original study’s significance to enable the accumulation of evidence for a true zero effect. Then we applied the method to the data of RPP and EE-RP, showing that the underlying effect sizes of the included studies in EE-RP are generally larger than in RPP, but that the sample sizes of especially the included studies in RPP are often too small to draw definite conclusions about the true effect size. We also illustrate how snapshot hybrid can be used to determine the required sample size of the replication akin to power analysis in null hypothesis significance testing and present an easy to use web application (https://rvanaert.shinyapps.io/snapshot/) and R code for applying the method. PMID:28388646

The statistical trade-off between word order and word structure – Large-scale evidence for the principle of least effort

PubMed Central

Koplenig, Alexander; Meyer, Peter; Wolfer, Sascha; Müller-Spitzer, Carolin

2017-01-01

Languages employ different strategies to transmit structural and grammatical information. While, for example, grammatical dependency relationships in sentences are mainly conveyed by the ordering of the words for languages like Mandarin Chinese, or Vietnamese, the word ordering is much less restricted for languages such as Inupiatun or Quechua, as these languages (also) use the internal structure of words (e.g. inflectional morphology) to mark grammatical relationships in a sentence. Based on a quantitative analysis of more than 1,500 unique translations of different books of the Bible in almost 1,200 different languages that are spoken as a native language by approximately 6 billion people (more than 80% of the world population), we present large-scale evidence for a statistical trade-off between the amount of information conveyed by the ordering of words and the amount of information conveyed by internal word structure: languages that rely more strongly on word order information tend to rely less on word structure information and vice versa. Or put differently, if less information is carried within the word, more information has to be spread among words in order to communicate successfully. In addition, we find that–despite differences in the way information is expressed–there is also evidence for a trade-off between different books of the biblical canon that recurs with little variation across languages: the more informative the word order of the book, the less informative its word structure and vice versa. We argue that this might suggest that, on the one hand, languages encode information in very different (but efficient) ways. On the other hand, content-related and stylistic features are statistically encoded in very similar ways. PMID:28282435

Haplotype-based association analysis of general cognitive ability in Generation Scotland, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, and UK Biobank.

PubMed

Howard, David M; Adams, Mark J; Clarke, Toni-Kim; Wigmore, Eleanor M; Zeng, Yanni; Hagenaars, Saskia P; Lyall, Donald M; Thomson, Pippa A; Evans, Kathryn L; Porteous, David J; Nagy, Reka; Hayward, Caroline; Haley, Chris S; Smith, Blair H; Murray, Alison D; Batty, G David; Deary, Ian J; McIntosh, Andrew M

2017-01-01

Cognitive ability is a heritable trait with a polygenic architecture, for which several associated variants have been identified using genotype-based and candidate gene approaches. Haplotype-based analyses are a complementary technique that take phased genotype data into account, and potentially provide greater statistical power to detect lower frequency variants. In the present analysis, three cohort studies (n total = 48,002) were utilised: Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (GS:SFHS), the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), and the UK Biobank. A genome-wide haplotype-based meta-analysis of cognitive ability was performed, as well as a targeted meta-analysis of several gene coding regions. None of the assessed haplotypes provided evidence of a statistically significant association with cognitive ability in either the individual cohorts or the meta-analysis. Within the meta-analysis, the haplotype with the lowest observed P -value overlapped with the D-amino acid oxidase activator ( DAOA ) gene coding region. This coding region has previously been associated with bipolar disorder, schizophrenia and Alzheimer's disease, which have all been shown to impact upon cognitive ability. Another potentially interesting region highlighted within the current genome-wide association analysis (GS:SFHS: P = 4.09 x 10 -7 ), was the butyrylcholinesterase ( BCHE ) gene coding region. The protein encoded by BCHE has been shown to influence the progression of Alzheimer's disease and its role in cognitive ability merits further investigation. Although no evidence was found for any haplotypes with a statistically significant association with cognitive ability, our results did provide further evidence that the genetic variants contributing to the variance of cognitive ability are likely to be of small effect.

Impact of seasonal variation, age and smoking status on human semen parameters: The Massachusetts General Hospital experience

PubMed Central

Chen, Zuying; Godfrey-Bailey, Linda; Schiff, Isaac; Hauser, Russ

2004-01-01

Background To investigate the relationship of human semen parameters with season, age and smoking status. Methods The present study used data from subjects recruited into an ongoing cross-sectional study on the relationship between environmental agents and semen characteristics. Our population consisted of 306 patients who presented to the Vincent Memorial Andrology Laboratory of Massachusetts General Hospital for semen evaluation. Sperm concentration and motility were measured with computer aided sperm analysis (CASA). Sperm morphology was scored using Tygerberg Kruger strict criteria. Regression analyses were used to investigate the relationships between semen parameters and season, age and smoking status, adjusting for abstinence interval. Results Sperm concentration in the spring was significantly higher than in winter, fall and summer (p < 0.05). There was suggestive evidence of higher sperm motility and percent of sperm with normal morphology in the spring than in the other seasons. There were no statistically significant relationships between semen parameters and smoking status, though current smokers tended to have lower sperm concentration. We also did not find a statistically significant relationship between age and semen parameters. Conclusions We found seasonal variations in sperm concentration and suggestive evidence of seasonal variation in sperm motility and percent sperm with normal morphology. Although smoking status was not a significant predictor of semen parameters, this may have been due to the small number of current smokers in the study. PMID:15507127

Math anxiety and exposure to statistics in messages about genetically modified foods: effects of numeracy, math self-efficacy, and form of presentation.

PubMed

Silk, Kami J; Parrott, Roxanne L

2014-01-01

Health risks are often communicated to the lay public in statistical formats even though low math skills, or innumeracy, have been found to be prevalent among lay individuals. Although numeracy has been a topic of much research investigation, the role of math self-efficacy and math anxiety on health and risk communication processing has received scant attention from health communication researchers. To advance theoretical and applied understanding regarding health message processing, the authors consider the role of math anxiety, including the effects of math self-efficacy, numeracy, and form of presenting statistics on math anxiety, and the potential effects for comprehension, yielding, and behavioral intentions. The authors also examine math anxiety in a health risk context through an evaluation of the effects of exposure to a message about genetically modified foods on levels of math anxiety. Participants (N = 323) were randomly assigned to read a message that varied the presentation of statistical evidence about potential risks associated with genetically modified foods. Findings reveal that exposure increased levels of math anxiety, with increases in math anxiety limiting yielding. Moreover, math anxiety impaired comprehension but was mediated by perceivers' math confidence and skills. Last, math anxiety facilitated behavioral intentions. Participants who received a text-based message with percentages were more likely to yield than participants who received either a bar graph with percentages or a combined form. Implications are discussed as they relate to math competence and its role in processing health and risk messages.

The Impact of an Interactive Statistics Module on Novices' Development of Scientific Process Skills and Attitudes in a First-Semester Research Foundations Course.

PubMed

Marsan, Lynnsay A; D'Arcy, Christina E; Olimpo, Jeffrey T

2016-12-01

Evidence suggests that incorporating quantitative reasoning exercises into existent curricular frameworks within the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) disciplines is essential for novices' development of conceptual understanding and process skills in these domains. Despite this being the case, such studies acknowledge that students often experience difficulty in applying mathematics in the context of scientific problems. To address this concern, the present study sought to explore the impact of active demonstrations and critical reading exercises on novices' comprehension of basic statistical concepts, including hypothesis testing, experimental design, and interpretation of research findings. Students first engaged in a highly interactive height activity that served to intuitively illustrate normal distribution, mean, standard deviation, and sample selection criteria. To enforce practical applications of standard deviation and p -value, student teams were subsequently assigned a figure from a peer-reviewed primary research article and instructed to evaluate the trustworthiness of the data. At the conclusion of this exercise, students presented their evaluations to the class for open discussion and commentary. Quantitative assessment of pre- and post-module survey data indicated a statistically significant increase both in students' scientific reasoning and process skills and in their self-reported confidence in understanding the statistical concepts presented in the module. Furthermore, data indicated that the majority of students (>85%) found the module both interesting and helpful in nature. Future studies will seek to develop additional, novel exercises within this area and to evaluate the impact of such modules across a variety of STEM and non-STEM contexts.

The Impact of an Interactive Statistics Module on Novices’ Development of Scientific Process Skills and Attitudes in a First-Semester Research Foundations Course†

PubMed Central

Marsan, Lynnsay A.; D’Arcy, Christina E.; Olimpo, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

Evidence suggests that incorporating quantitative reasoning exercises into existent curricular frameworks within the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) disciplines is essential for novices’ development of conceptual understanding and process skills in these domains. Despite this being the case, such studies acknowledge that students often experience difficulty in applying mathematics in the context of scientific problems. To address this concern, the present study sought to explore the impact of active demonstrations and critical reading exercises on novices’ comprehension of basic statistical concepts, including hypothesis testing, experimental design, and interpretation of research findings. Students first engaged in a highly interactive height activity that served to intuitively illustrate normal distribution, mean, standard deviation, and sample selection criteria. To enforce practical applications of standard deviation and p-value, student teams were subsequently assigned a figure from a peer-reviewed primary research article and instructed to evaluate the trustworthiness of the data. At the conclusion of this exercise, students presented their evaluations to the class for open discussion and commentary. Quantitative assessment of pre- and post-module survey data indicated a statistically significant increase both in students’ scientific reasoning and process skills and in their self-reported confidence in understanding the statistical concepts presented in the module. Furthermore, data indicated that the majority of students (>85%) found the module both interesting and helpful in nature. Future studies will seek to develop additional, novel exercises within this area and to evaluate the impact of such modules across a variety of STEM and non-STEM contexts. PMID:28101271

Full-text publication of abstracts presented at European Orthodontic Society congresses.

PubMed

Livas, Christos; Pandis, Nikolaos; Ren, Yijin

2014-10-01

Empirical evidence has indicated that only a subsample of studies conducted reach full-text publication and this phenomenon has become known as publication bias. A form of publication bias is the selectively delayed full publication of conference abstracts. The objective of this article was to examine the publication status of oral abstracts and poster-presentation abstracts, included in the scientific program of the 82nd and 83rd European Orthodontic Society (EOS) congresses, held in 2006 and 2007, and to identify factors associated with full-length publication. A systematic search of PubMed and Google Scholar databases was performed in April 2013 using author names and keywords from the abstract title to locate abstract and full-article publications. Information regarding mode of presentation, type of affiliation, geographical origin, statistical results, and publication details were collected and analyzed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression. Approximately 51 per cent of the EOS 2006 and 55 per cent of the EOS 2007 abstracts appeared in print more than 5 years post congress. A mean period of 1.32 years elapsed between conference and publication date. Mode of presentation (oral or poster), use of statistical analysis, and research subject area were significant predictors for publication success. Inherent discrepancies of abstract reporting, mainly related to presentation of preliminary results and incomplete description of methods, may be considered in analogous studies. On average 52.2 per cent of the abstracts presented at the two EOS conferences reached full publication. Abstracts presented orally, including statistical analysis, were more likely to get published. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Orthodontic Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Influence of environmental statistics on inhibition of saccadic return

PubMed Central

Farrell, Simon; Ludwig, Casimir J. H.; Ellis, Lucy A.; Gilchrist, Iain D.

2009-01-01

Initiating an eye movement is slowed if the saccade is directed to a location that has been fixated in the recent past. We show that this inhibitory effect is modulated by the temporal statistics of the environment: If a return location is likely to become behaviorally relevant, inhibition of return is absent. By fitting an accumulator model of saccadic decision-making, we show that the inhibitory effect and the sensitivity to local statistics can be dissociated in their effects on the rate of accumulation of evidence, and the threshold controlling the amount of evidence needed to generate a saccade. PMID:20080778

The 2002 NIMH Provisional Diagnostic Criteria for Depression of Alzheimer's Disease (PDC-dAD): Gauging their Validity over a Decade Later.

PubMed

Sepehry, Amir A; Lee, Philip E; Hsiung, Ging-Yuek R; Beattie, B Lynn; Feldman, Howard H; Jacova, Claudia

2017-01-01

Presented herein is evidence for criterion, content, and convergent/discriminant validity of the NIMH-Provisional Diagnostic Criteria for depression of Alzheimer's Disease (PDC-dAD) that were formulated to address depression in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Using meta-analytic and systematic review methods, we examined criterion validity evidence in epidemiological and clinical studies comparing the PDC-dAD to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders fourth edition (DSM-IV), and International Classification of Disease (ICD 9) depression diagnostic criteria. We estimated prevalence of depression by PDC, DSM, and ICD with an omnibus event rate effect-size. We also examined diagnostic agreement between PDC and DSM. To gauge content validity, we reviewed rates of symptom endorsement for each diagnostic approach. Finally, we examined the PDC's relationship with assessment scales (global cognition, neuropsychiatric, and depression definition) for convergent validity evidence. The aggregate evidence supports the validity of the PDC-dAD. Our findings suggest that depression in AD differs from other depressive disorders including Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) in that dAD is more prevalent, with generally a milder presentation and with unique features not captured by the DSM. Although the PDC are the current standard for diagnosis of depression in AD, we identified the need for their further optimization based on predictive validity evidence.

Investigating species co-occurrence patterns when species are detected imperfectly

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Bailey, L.L.; Nichols, J.D.

2004-01-01

1. Over the last 30 years there has been a great deal of interest in investigating patterns of species co-occurrence across a number of locations, which has led to the development of numerous methods to determine whether there is evidence that a particular pattern may not have occurred by random chance. 2. A key aspect that seems to have been largely overlooked is the possibility that species may not always be detected at a location when present, which leads to 'false absences' in a species presence/absence matrix that may cause incorrect inferences to be made about co-occurrence patterns. Furthermore, many of the published methods for investigating patterns of species co-occurrence do not account for potential differences in the site characteristics that may partially (at least) explain non-random patterns (e.g. due to species having similar/different habitat preferences). 3. Here we present a statistical method for modelling co-occurrence patterns between species while accounting for imperfect detection and site characteristics. This method requires that multiple presence/absence surveys for the species be conducted over a reasonably short period of time at most sites. The method yields unbiased estimates of probabilities of occurrence, and is practical when the number of species is small (< 4). 4. To illustrate the method we consider data collected on two terrestrial salamander species, Plethodonjordani and members of the Plethodon glutinosus complex, collected in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA. We find no evidence that the species do not occur independently at sites once site elevation has been allowed for, although we find some evidence of a statistical interaction between species in terms of detectability that we suggest may be due to changes in relative abundances.

Sewage workers: risk of acquiring enteric virus infections including hepatitis A.

PubMed

Divizia, Maurizio; Cencioni, Barbara; Palombi, Leonardo; Panà, Augusto

2008-07-01

To determine if sewage workers have an increased risk of acquiring viral infections, 66 workers at a small wastewater plant in north-eastern Italy and 72 control subjects recruited from blood donors were enrolled in a seroprevalence study to determine whether sewage workers are at increased risk of acquiring viral infections. In order to evaluate various risk factors, a questionnaire was filled out by each worker whereas seropositivity to Hepatitis A virus, Coxsackievirus B2 - B3 - B4 - B5, and Echovirus types 1 and 9 was determined in the laboratory. Anti-HAV antibodies were present in 37.8% of sewage workers and 36.1% of subjects in the control group. The difference was not statistically significant in the two groups, whereas a significant association was observed regarding age (P < 0.3). No association was observed with the occupational age, or with number and duration of contacts per day. The lack of evident occupational risk for hepatitis A among sewage workers may be explained by the adult age of the workers (mean age 41.3 years, range 22-58 years), and thus the antibody titre against different enteroviruses was determined. No statistically significant differences were evident with the raw values, but considering the 90 degrees percentile as a dichotomic value for the antibody levels a strong and significant association was present with Coxsackievirus B3 (O.R. 22.85, C.I. 95% 2.93-178.08) and Coxsackievirus B2 (O.R. 14.25, C.I. 95% 1.78-113.87). Analysis of the data confirms a limited risk of acquiring infection and/or disease but also the evident possibility of silent exposure to the viruses. The shift in HAV epidemiology and increased morbidity and mortality in adult age suggest that active immunization against hepatitis A should be considered.

Integration of DPC and clinical microbiological data in Japan reveals importance of confirming a negative follow-up blood culture in patients with MRSA bacteremia.

PubMed

Miyamoto, Naoki; Yahara, Koji; Horita, Rie; Yano, Tomomi; Tashiro, Naotaka; Morii, Daiichi; Tsutsui, Atsuko; Yaita, Kenichiro; Shibayama, Keigo; Watanabe, Hiroshi

2017-10-01

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bacteremia is one of the commonest and most life-threatening of all infectious diseases. The morbidity and mortality rates associated with MRSA bacteremia are higher than those associated with bacteremia caused by other pathogens. A common guideline in MRSA bacteremia treatment is to confirm bacteremia clearance through additional blood cultures 2-4 days after initial positive cultures and as needed thereafter. However, no study has presented statistical evidence of how and to what extent confirming a negative follow-up blood culture impacts clinical outcome. We present this evidence for the first time, by combining clinical microbiological data of blood cultures and the DPC administrative claims database; both had been systematically accumulated through routine medical care in hospitals. We used electronic medical records to investigate the clinical background and infection source in detail. By analyzing data from a university hospital, we revealed how survival curves change when a negative follow-up blood culture is confirmed. We also demonstrated confirmation of a negative culture is significantly associated with clinical outcomes: there was a more than three-fold increase in mortality risk (after adjusting for clinical background) if a negative blood culture was not confirmed within 14 days of the initial positive blood culture. Although we used data from only one university hospital, our novel approach and results will be a basis for future studies in several hospitals in Japan to provide statistical evidence of the clinical importance of confirming a negative follow-up blood culture in bacteremia patients, including those with MRSA infections. Copyright © 2017 Japanese Society of Chemotherapy and The Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evidence and Clinical Trials.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodman, Steven N.

1989-11-01

This dissertation explores the use of a mathematical measure of statistical evidence, the log likelihood ratio, in clinical trials. The methods and thinking behind the use of an evidential measure are contrasted with traditional methods of analyzing data, which depend primarily on a p-value as an estimate of the statistical strength of an observed data pattern. It is contended that neither the behavioral dictates of Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing methods, nor the coherency dictates of Bayesian methods are realistic models on which to base inference. The use of the likelihood alone is applied to four aspects of trial design or conduct: the calculation of sample size, the monitoring of data, testing for the equivalence of two treatments, and meta-analysis--the combining of results from different trials. Finally, a more general model of statistical inference, using belief functions, is used to see if it is possible to separate the assessment of evidence from our background knowledge. It is shown that traditional and Bayesian methods can be modeled as two ends of a continuum of structured background knowledge, methods which summarize evidence at the point of maximum likelihood assuming no structure, and Bayesian methods assuming complete knowledge. Both schools are seen to be missing a concept of ignorance- -uncommitted belief. This concept provides the key to understanding the problem of sampling to a foregone conclusion and the role of frequency properties in statistical inference. The conclusion is that statistical evidence cannot be defined independently of background knowledge, and that frequency properties of an estimator are an indirect measure of uncommitted belief. Several likelihood summaries need to be used in clinical trials, with the quantitative disparity between summaries being an indirect measure of our ignorance. This conclusion is linked with parallel ideas in the philosophy of science and cognitive psychology.

The Statistics Teaching Inventory: A Survey on Statistics Teachers' Classroom Practices and Beliefs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zieffler, Andrew; Park, Jiyoon; Garfield, Joan; delMas, Robert; Bjornsdottir, Audbjorg

2012-01-01

This paper reports on an instrument designed to assess the practices and beliefs of instructors of introductory statistics courses across the disciplines. Funded by a grant from the National Science Foundation, this project developed, piloted, and gathered validity evidence for the Statistics Teaching Inventory (STI). The instrument consists of 50…

Optimal multisensory decision-making in a reaction-time task.

PubMed

Drugowitsch, Jan; DeAngelis, Gregory C; Klier, Eliana M; Angelaki, Dora E; Pouget, Alexandre

2014-06-14

Humans and animals can integrate sensory evidence from various sources to make decisions in a statistically near-optimal manner, provided that the stimulus presentation time is fixed across trials. Little is known about whether optimality is preserved when subjects can choose when to make a decision (reaction-time task), nor when sensory inputs have time-varying reliability. Using a reaction-time version of a visual/vestibular heading discrimination task, we show that behavior is clearly sub-optimal when quantified with traditional optimality metrics that ignore reaction times. We created a computational model that accumulates evidence optimally across both cues and time, and trades off accuracy with decision speed. This model quantitatively explains subjects's choices and reaction times, supporting the hypothesis that subjects do, in fact, accumulate evidence optimally over time and across sensory modalities, even when the reaction time is under the subject's control.

Impact of time to therapy and presence of collaterals on the efficacy of FX06 in acute ST elevation myocardial infarction: a substudy of the F.I.R.E., the Efficacy of FX06 in the prevention of myocardial reperfusion injury trial.

PubMed

Hallén, Jonas; Petzelbauer, Peter; Schwitter, Jürg; Geudelin, Bernard; Buser, Peter; Atar, Dan

2010-04-01

To determine whether the efficacy of FX06 was dependent upon the timing of reperfusion therapy or the presence of collaterals in the Efficacy of FX06 in the prevention of myocardial reperfusion injury (F.I.R.E.) trial. Two hundred and thirty-four (234) patients presenting with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were randomised to FX06 or matching placebo given as an intravenous bolus at reperfusion. Infarct size was assessed at 5-7 days and four months after myocardial infarction by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging determined total late enhancement and necrotic core zone. Patients were stratified according to presentation status (time-to-therapy <3 hours, n=108; time-to-therapy=3-6 hours, n=115) and presence of collaterals (yes, 46; no, 177). There were no statistically significant differences between groups at day 5-7. At four months, we observed statistically significant reductions of both measures of infarct size (0.3% vs. 2.4%, p=0.038; 8.0% vs. 16.0%, p=0.032) in the group given FX06 and presenting early. There was also a statistically significant reduction of total late enhancement zone among patients given FX06 with collaterals (7.3% vs. 15.2%, p=0.043). No differences were evident among late presenters or those without collaterals. FX06 significantly reduced infarct size at four months in the early presenters and in those with collaterals.

Association of salivary gland hypofunction with diabetes mellitus and drugs among the elderly in Karachi, Pakistan.

PubMed

Lone, Muneeb Ahmed; Shaikh, Sameer; Lone, Maham Muneeb; Afaq, Ashar; Lone, Mohid Abrar

2017-05-01

Studies from Pakistan on salivary dysfunction are lacking, and the Pakistani elderly population is rapidly growing. Among the most common problems in the elderly that could have a deleterious impact on their quality of life are salivary gland hypofunction (SGH), diabetes mellitus (DM), and the intake of drugs with adverse effects on salivary function. In the present study, we aimed to find the association of SGH with DM and drugs among the elderly in Karachi, Pakistan. The inclusion criterion was affirmative answers to a series of standardized questions related to the symptoms of dry mouth. A total of 110 individuals were selected from a convenience sample of 200 people aged between 60 and 70 years. Diabetes, drug use, and SGH in the participants were determined by detailed medical and drug history, clinical examination, and sialometry. Similar to their international counterparts, the majority of the study participants demonstrated objective evidence of SGH. More importantly SGH was found to be statistically significant with respect to DM and medication (P < 0.05). For participants on medication, the minimum and maximum salivary flow rates were found to be 0.09 mL/min and 0.3 ml/min, respectively, whereas the minimum and maximum salivary flow rates in diabetic participants were 0.01 mL/min and 0.09 mL/min, respectively. In the present study, the majority of elderly participants whose presenting complaint was oral dryness was found to have objective evidence of SGH, with a statistically-significant association with DM and drugs. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Seven Pervasive Statistical Flaws in Cognitive Training Interventions

PubMed Central

Moreau, David; Kirk, Ian J.; Waldie, Karen E.

2016-01-01

The prospect of enhancing cognition is undoubtedly among the most exciting research questions currently bridging psychology, neuroscience, and evidence-based medicine. Yet, convincing claims in this line of work stem from designs that are prone to several shortcomings, thus threatening the credibility of training-induced cognitive enhancement. Here, we present seven pervasive statistical flaws in intervention designs: (i) lack of power; (ii) sampling error; (iii) continuous variable splits; (iv) erroneous interpretations of correlated gain scores; (v) single transfer assessments; (vi) multiple comparisons; and (vii) publication bias. Each flaw is illustrated with a Monte Carlo simulation to present its underlying mechanisms, gauge its magnitude, and discuss potential remedies. Although not restricted to training studies, these flaws are typically exacerbated in such designs, due to ubiquitous practices in data collection or data analysis. The article reviews these practices, so as to avoid common pitfalls when designing or analyzing an intervention. More generally, it is also intended as a reference for anyone interested in evaluating claims of cognitive enhancement. PMID:27148010

Evidence of the non-extensive character of Earth's ambient noise.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutalonis, Ioannis; Vallianatos, Filippos

2017-04-01

Investigation of dynamical features of ambient seismic noise is one of the important scientific and practical research challenges. In the same time there isgrowing interest concerning an approach to study Earth Physics based on thescience of complex systems and non extensive statistical mechanics which is a generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical physics (Vallianatos et al., 2016).This seems to be a promising framework for studying complex systems exhibitingphenomena such as, long-range interactions, and memory effects. Inthis work we use non-extensive statistical mechanics and signal analysis methodsto explore the nature of ambient noise as measured in the stations of the HSNC in South Aegean (Chatzopoulos et al., 2016). In the present work we analyzed the de-trended increments time series of ambient seismic noise X(t), in time windows of 20 minutes to 10 seconds within "calm time zones" where the human-induced noise presents a minimum. Following the non extensive statistical physics approach, the probability distribution function of the increments of ambient noise is investigated. Analyzing the probability density function (PDF)p(X), normalized to zero mean and unit varianceresults that the fluctuations of Earth's ambient noise follows a q-Gaussian distribution asdefined in the frame of non-extensive statisticalmechanics indicated the possible existence of memory effects in Earth's ambient noise. References: F. Vallianatos, G. Papadakis, G. Michas, Generalized statistical mechanics approaches to earthquakes and tectonics. Proc. R. Soc. A, 472, 20160497, 2016. G. Chatzopoulos, I.Papadopoulos, F.Vallianatos, The Hellenic Seismological Network of Crete (HSNC): Validation and results of the 2013 aftershock,Advances in Geosciences, 41, 65-72, 2016.

Rugby (the religion of Wales) and its influence on the Catholic church: should Pope Benedict XVI be worried?

PubMed Central

Farewell, Daniel M

2008-01-01

Objective To explore the perceived wisdom that papal mortality is related to the success of the Welsh rugby union team. Design Retrospective observational study of historical Vatican and sporting data. Main outcome measure Papal deaths between 1883 and the present day. Results There is no evidence of a link between papal deaths and any home nation grand slams (when one nation succeeds in beating all other competing teams in every match). There was, however, weak statistical evidence to support an association between Welsh performance and the number of papal deaths. Conclusion Given the dominant Welsh performances of 2008, the Vatican medical team should take special care of the pontiff this Christmas. PMID:19091757

Effectiveness of skills for academic and social success (SASS) with Portuguese adolescents.

PubMed

Vagos, Paula; Pereira, Anabela; Warner, Carrie Masia

2015-01-01

Social fears are common among adolescents and may considerably impair their lives. Even so, most adolescents do not seek professional help for these difficulties, making it important to promote evidence-based and preventive interventions in community samples. This research presents the effectiveness of an intervention with a group of five female adolescents who reported serious interference of their social fears in their daily life. At post-intervention, effectiveness was noticeable by high recovery, reliable individual change, and intragroup statistical change. The intervention showed impact for measures of social anxiety, avoidance, and assertiveness, and such impact was steady at 3-month follow-up. These findings add to the cumulative and transcultural evidence on the effectiveness of Skills for Academic and Social Success (SASS).

Sizes and locations of coronal mass ejections - SMM observations from 1980 and 1984-1989

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hundhausen, A. J.

1993-01-01

A statistical description of the sizes and locations of 1209 mass ejections observed with the SMM coronagraph/polarimeter in 1980 and 1984-1989 is presented. The average width of the coronal mass ejections detected with this instrument was close to 40 deg in angle for the entire period of SMM observations. No evidence was found for a significant change in mass ejection widths as reported by Howard et al. (1986). There is clear evidence for changes in the latitude distribution of mass ejections over this epoch. Mass ejections occurred over a much wider range of latitudes at the times of high solar activity (1980 and 1989) than at times of low activity (1985-1986).

Evicase: an evidence-based case structuring approach for personalized healthcare.

PubMed

Carmeli, Boaz; Casali, Paolo; Goldbraich, Anna; Goldsteen, Abigail; Kent, Carmel; Licitra, Lisa; Locatelli, Paolo; Restifo, Nicola; Rinott, Ruty; Sini, Elena; Torresani, Michele; Waks, Zeev

2012-01-01

The personalized medicine era stresses a growing need to combine evidence-based medicine with case based reasoning in order to improve the care process. To address this need we suggest a framework to generate multi-tiered statistical structures we call Evicases. Evicase integrates established medical evidence together with patient cases from the bedside. It then uses machine learning algorithms to produce statistical results and aggregators, weighted predictions, and appropriate recommendations. Designed as a stand-alone structure, Evicase can be used for a range of decision support applications including guideline adherence monitoring and personalized prognostic predictions.

Analysis of the procedures used to evaluate suicide crime scenes in Brazil: a statistical approach to interpret reports.

PubMed

Bruni, Aline Thaís; Velho, Jesus Antonio; Ferreira, Arthur Serra Lopes; Tasso, Maria Júlia; Ferrari, Raíssa Santos; Yoshida, Ricardo Luís; Dias, Marcos Salvador; Leite, Vitor Barbanti Pereira

2014-08-01

This study uses statistical techniques to evaluate reports on suicide scenes; it utilizes 80 reports from different locations in Brazil, randomly collected from both federal and state jurisdictions. We aimed to assess a heterogeneous group of cases in order to obtain an overall perspective of the problem. We evaluated variables regarding the characteristics of the crime scene, such as the detected traces (blood, instruments and clothes) that were found and we addressed the methodology employed by the experts. A qualitative approach using basic statistics revealed a wide distribution as to how the issue was addressed in the documents. We examined a quantitative approach involving an empirical equation and we used multivariate procedures to validate the quantitative methodology proposed for this empirical equation. The methodology successfully identified the main differences in the information presented in the reports, showing that there is no standardized method of analyzing evidences. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Applications of Bayesian Statistics to Problems in Gamma-Ray Bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meegan, Charles A.

1997-01-01

This presentation will describe two applications of Bayesian statistics to Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBS). The first attempts to quantify the evidence for a cosmological versus galactic origin of GRBs using only the observations of the dipole and quadrupole moments of the angular distribution of bursts. The cosmological hypothesis predicts isotropy, while the galactic hypothesis is assumed to produce a uniform probability distribution over positive values for these moments. The observed isotropic distribution indicates that the Bayes factor for the cosmological hypothesis over the galactic hypothesis is about 300. Another application of Bayesian statistics is in the estimation of chance associations of optical counterparts with galaxies. The Bayesian approach is preferred to frequentist techniques here because the Bayesian approach easily accounts for galaxy mass distributions and because one can incorporate three disjoint hypotheses: (1) bursts come from galactic centers, (2) bursts come from galaxies in proportion to luminosity, and (3) bursts do not come from external galaxies. This technique was used in the analysis of the optical counterpart to GRB970228.

Graphical Presentation of Patient-Treatment Interaction Elucidated by Continuous Biomarkers. Current Practice and Scope for Improvement.

PubMed

Shen, Yu-Ming; Le, Lien D; Wilson, Rory; Mansmann, Ulrich

2017-01-09

Biomarkers providing evidence for patient-treatment interaction are key in the development and practice of personalized medicine. Knowledge that a patient with a specific feature - as demonstrated through a biomarker - would have an advantage under a given treatment vs. a competing treatment can aid immensely in medical decision-making. Statistical strategies to establish evidence of continuous biomarkers are complex and their formal results are thus not easy to communicate. Good graphical representations would help to translate such findings for use in the clinical community. Although general guidelines on how to present figures in clinical reports are available, there remains little guidance for figures elucidating the role of continuous biomarkers in patient-treatment interaction (CBPTI). To combat the current lack of comprehensive reviews or adequate guides on graphical presentation within this topic, our study proposes presentation principles for CBPTI plots. In order to understand current practice, we review the development of CBPTI methodology and how CBPTI plots are currently used in clinical research. The quality of a CBPTI plot is determined by how well the presentation provides key information for clinical decision-making. Several criteria for a good CBPTI plot are proposed, including general principles of visual display, use of units presenting absolute outcome measures, appropriate quantification of statistical uncertainty, correct display of benchmarks, and informative content for answering clinical questions especially on the quantitative advantage for an individual patient with regard to a specific treatment. We examined the development of CBPTI methodology from the years 2000 - 2014, and reviewed how CBPTI plots were currently used in clinical research in six major clinical journals from 2013 - 2014 using the principle of theoretical saturation. Each CBPTI plot found was assessed for appropriateness of its presentation and clinical utility. In our review, a total of seven methodological papers and five clinical reports used CBPTI plots which we categorized into four types: those that distinguish the outcome effect for each treatment group; those that show the outcome differences between treatment groups (by either partitioning all individuals into subpopulations or modelling the functional form of the interaction); those that evaluate the proportion of population impact of the biomarker; and those that show the classification accuracy of the biomarker. The current practice of utilizing CBPTI plots in clinical reports suffers from methodological shortcomings: the lack of presentation of statistical uncertainty, the outcome measure scaled by relative unit instead of absolute unit, incorrect use of benchmarks, and being non-informative in answering clinical questions. There is considerable scope for improvement in the graphical representation of CBPTI in clinical reports. The current challenge is to develop instruments for high-quality graphical plots which not only convey quantitative concepts to readers with limited statistical knowledge, but also facilitate medical decision-making.

EvolQG - An R package for evolutionary quantitative genetics

PubMed Central

Melo, Diogo; Garcia, Guilherme; Hubbe, Alex; Assis, Ana Paula; Marroig, Gabriel

2016-01-01

We present an open source package for performing evolutionary quantitative genetics analyses in the R environment for statistical computing. Evolutionary theory shows that evolution depends critically on the available variation in a given population. When dealing with many quantitative traits this variation is expressed in the form of a covariance matrix, particularly the additive genetic covariance matrix or sometimes the phenotypic matrix, when the genetic matrix is unavailable and there is evidence the phenotypic matrix is sufficiently similar to the genetic matrix. Given this mathematical representation of available variation, the \\textbf{EvolQG} package provides functions for calculation of relevant evolutionary statistics; estimation of sampling error; corrections for this error; matrix comparison via correlations, distances and matrix decomposition; analysis of modularity patterns; and functions for testing evolutionary hypotheses on taxa diversification. PMID:27785352

Type I and type II residual stress in iron meteorites determined by neutron diffraction measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, Stefano; Pratesi, Giovanni; Kabra, Saurabh; Grazzi, Francesco

2018-04-01

In this work we present a preliminary investigation by means of neutron diffraction experiment to determine the residual stress state in three different iron meteorites (Chinga, Sikhote Alin and Nantan). Because of the very peculiar microstructural characteristic of this class of samples, all the systematic effects related to the measuring procedure - such as crystallite size and composition - were taken into account and a clear differentiation in the statistical distribution of residual stress in coarse and fine grained meteorites were highlighted. Moreover, the residual stress state was statistically analysed in three orthogonal directions finding evidence of the existence of both type I and type II residual stress components. Finally, the application of von Mises approach allowed to determine the distribution of type II stress.

Do climate extreme events foster violent civil conflicts? A coincidence analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

2014-05-01

Civil conflicts promoted by adverse environmental conditions represent one of the most important potential feedbacks in the global socio-environmental nexus. While the role of climate extremes as a triggering factor is often discussed, no consensus is yet reached about the cause-and-effect relation in the observed data record. Here we present results of a rigorous statistical coincidence analysis based on the Munich Re Inc. extreme events database and the Uppsala conflict data program. We report evidence for statistically significant synchronicity between climate extremes with high economic impact and violent conflicts for various regions, although no coherent global signal emerges from our analysis. Our results indicate the importance of regional vulnerability and might aid to identify hot-spot regions for potential climate-triggered violent social conflicts.

What Can Be Learned from Inverse Statistics?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlgren, Peter Toke Heden; Dahl, Henrik; Jensen, Mogens Høgh; Simonsen, Ingve

One stylized fact of financial markets is an asymmetry between the most likely time to profit and to loss. This gain-loss asymmetry is revealed by inverse statistics, a method closely related to empirically finding first passage times. Many papers have presented evidence about the asymmetry, where it appears and where it does not. Also, various interpretations and explanations for the results have been suggested. In this chapter, we review the published results and explanations. We also examine the results and show that some are at best fragile. Similarly, we discuss the suggested explanations and propose a new model based on Gaussian mixtures. Apart from explaining the gain-loss asymmetry, this model also has the potential to explain other stylized facts such as volatility clustering, fat tails, and power law behavior of returns.

Detection and description of non-linear interdependence in normal multichannel human EEG data.

PubMed

Breakspear, M; Terry, J R

2002-05-01

This study examines human scalp electroencephalographic (EEG) data for evidence of non-linear interdependence between posterior channels. The spectral and phase properties of those epochs of EEG exhibiting non-linear interdependence are studied. Scalp EEG data was collected from 40 healthy subjects. A technique for the detection of non-linear interdependence was applied to 2.048 s segments of posterior bipolar electrode data. Amplitude-adjusted phase-randomized surrogate data was used to statistically determine which EEG epochs exhibited non-linear interdependence. Statistically significant evidence of non-linear interactions were evident in 2.9% (eyes open) to 4.8% (eyes closed) of the epochs. In the eyes-open recordings, these epochs exhibited a peak in the spectral and cross-spectral density functions at about 10 Hz. Two types of EEG epochs are evident in the eyes-closed recordings; one type exhibits a peak in the spectral density and cross-spectrum at 8 Hz. The other type has increased spectral and cross-spectral power across faster frequencies. Epochs identified as exhibiting non-linear interdependence display a tendency towards phase interdependencies across and between a broad range of frequencies. Non-linear interdependence is detectable in a small number of multichannel EEG epochs, and makes a contribution to the alpha rhythm. Non-linear interdependence produces spatially distributed activity that exhibits phase synchronization between oscillations present at different frequencies. The possible physiological significance of these findings are discussed with reference to the dynamical properties of neural systems and the role of synchronous activity in the neocortex.

Statistical analysis of catalogs of extragalactic objects. II - The Abell catalog of rich clusters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hauser, M. G.; Peebles, P. J. E.

1973-01-01

The results of a power-spectrum analysis are presented for the distribution of clusters in the Abell catalog. Clear and direct evidence is found for superclusters with small angular scale, in agreement with the recent study of Bogart and Wagoner (1973). It is also found that the degree and angular scale of the apparent superclustering varies with distance in the manner expected if the clustering is intrinsic to the spatial distribution rather than a consequence of patchy local obscuration.

The horse-collar aurora - A frequent pattern of the aurora in quiet times

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hones, E. W., Jr.; Craven, J. D.; Frank, L. A.; Evans, D. S.; Newell, P. T.

1989-01-01

The frequent appearance of the 'horse-collar aurora' pattern in quiet-time DE 1 images is reported, presenting a two-hour image sequence that displays the basic features and shows that it sometimes evolves toward the theta configuration. There is some evidence for interplanetary magnetic field B(y) influence on the temporal development of the pattern. A preliminary statistical analysis finds the pattern appearing in one-third or more of the image sequences recorded during quiet times.

STEM crisis or STEM surplus? Yes and yes.

PubMed

Xue, Yi; Larson, Richard C

2015-05-01

The last decade has seen considerable concern regarding a shortage of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) workers to meet the demands of the labor market. At the same time, many experts have presented evidence of a STEM worker surplus. A comprehensive literature review, in conjunction with employment statistics, newspaper articles, and our own interviews with company recruiters, reveals a significant heterogeneity in the STEM labor market: the academic sector is generally oversupplied, while the government sector and private industry have shortages in specific areas.

STEM crisis or STEM surplus? Yes and yes

PubMed Central

Xue, Yi; Larson, Richard C.

2018-01-01

The last decade has seen considerable concern regarding a shortage of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) workers to meet the demands of the labor market. At the same time, many experts have presented evidence of a STEM worker surplus. A comprehensive literature review, in conjunction with employment statistics, newspaper articles, and our own interviews with company recruiters, reveals a significant heterogeneity in the STEM labor market: the academic sector is generally oversupplied, while the government sector and private industry have shortages in specific areas. PMID:29422698

Automated clustering-based workload characterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pentakalos, Odysseas I.; Menasce, Daniel A.; Yesha, Yelena

1996-01-01

The demands placed on the mass storage systems at various federal agencies and national laboratories are continuously increasing in intensity. This forces system managers to constantly monitor the system, evaluate the demand placed on it, and tune it appropriately using either heuristics based on experience or analytic models. Performance models require an accurate workload characterization. This can be a laborious and time consuming process. It became evident from our experience that a tool is necessary to automate the workload characterization process. This paper presents the design and discusses the implementation of a tool for workload characterization of mass storage systems. The main features of the tool discussed here are: (1)Automatic support for peak-period determination. Histograms of system activity are generated and presented to the user for peak-period determination; (2) Automatic clustering analysis. The data collected from the mass storage system logs is clustered using clustering algorithms and tightness measures to limit the number of generated clusters; (3) Reporting of varied file statistics. The tool computes several statistics on file sizes such as average, standard deviation, minimum, maximum, frequency, as well as average transfer time. These statistics are given on a per cluster basis; (4) Portability. The tool can easily be used to characterize the workload in mass storage systems of different vendors. The user needs to specify through a simple log description language how the a specific log should be interpreted. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section two presents basic concepts in workload characterization as they apply to mass storage systems. Section three describes clustering algorithms and tightness measures. The following section presents the architecture of the tool. Section five presents some results of workload characterization using the tool.Finally, section six presents some concluding remarks.

QUEST/Ada (Query Utility Environment for Software Testing) of Ada: The development of a program analysis environment for Ada

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, David B.

1988-01-01

A history of the Query Utility Environment for Software Testing (QUEST)/Ada is presented. A fairly comprehensive literature review which is targeted toward issues of Ada testing is given. The definition of the system structure and the high level interfaces are then presented. The design of the three major components is described. The QUEST/Ada IORL System Specifications to this point in time are included in the Appendix. A paper is also included in the appendix which gives statistical evidence of the validity of the test case generation approach which is being integrated into QUEST/Ada.

Traversing the conceptual divide between biological and statistical epistasis: systems biology and a more modern synthesis.

PubMed

Moore, Jason H; Williams, Scott M

2005-06-01

Epistasis plays an important role in the genetic architecture of common human diseases and can be viewed from two perspectives, biological and statistical, each derived from and leading to different assumptions and research strategies. Biological epistasis is the result of physical interactions among biomolecules within gene regulatory networks and biochemical pathways in an individual such that the effect of a gene on a phenotype is dependent on one or more other genes. In contrast, statistical epistasis is defined as deviation from additivity in a mathematical model summarizing the relationship between multilocus genotypes and phenotypic variation in a population. The goal of this essay is to review definitions and examples of biological and statistical epistasis and to explore the relationship between the two. Specifically, we present and discuss the following two questions in the context of human health and disease. First, when does statistical evidence of epistasis in human populations imply underlying biomolecular interactions in the etiology of disease? Second, when do biomolecular interactions produce patterns of statistical epistasis in human populations? Answers to these two reciprocal questions will provide an important framework for using genetic information to improve our ability to diagnose, prevent and treat common human diseases. We propose that systems biology will provide the necessary information for addressing these questions and that model systems such as bacteria, yeast and digital organisms will be a useful place to start.

Statistical Learning of Phonetic Categories: Insights from a Computational Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McMurray, Bob; Aslin, Richard N.; Toscano, Joseph C.

2009-01-01

Recent evidence (Maye, Werker & Gerken, 2002) suggests that statistical learning may be an important mechanism for the acquisition of phonetic categories in the infant's native language. We examined the sufficiency of this hypothesis and its implications for development by implementing a statistical learning mechanism in a computational model…

Dynamic modelling of n-of-1 data: powerful and flexible data analytics applied to individualised studies.

PubMed

Vieira, Rute; McDonald, Suzanne; Araújo-Soares, Vera; Sniehotta, Falko F; Henderson, Robin

2017-09-01

N-of-1 studies are based on repeated observations within an individual or unit over time and are acknowledged as an important research method for generating scientific evidence about the health or behaviour of an individual. Statistical analyses of n-of-1 data require accurate modelling of the outcome while accounting for its distribution, time-related trend and error structures (e.g., autocorrelation) as well as reporting readily usable contextualised effect sizes for decision-making. A number of statistical approaches have been documented but no consensus exists on which method is most appropriate for which type of n-of-1 design. We discuss the statistical considerations for analysing n-of-1 studies and briefly review some currently used methodologies. We describe dynamic regression modelling as a flexible and powerful approach, adaptable to different types of outcomes and capable of dealing with the different challenges inherent to n-of-1 statistical modelling. Dynamic modelling borrows ideas from longitudinal and event history methodologies which explicitly incorporate the role of time and the influence of past on future. We also present an illustrative example of the use of dynamic regression on monitoring physical activity during the retirement transition. Dynamic modelling has the potential to expand researchers' access to robust and user-friendly statistical methods for individualised studies.

Dangerous "spin": the probability myth of evidence-based prescribing - a Merleau-Pontyian approach.

PubMed

Morstyn, Ron

2011-08-01

The aim of this study was to examine logical positivist statistical probability statements used to support and justify "evidence-based" prescribing rules in psychiatry when viewed from the major philosophical theories of probability, and to propose "phenomenological probability" based on Maurice Merleau-Ponty's philosophy of "phenomenological positivism" as a better clinical and ethical basis for psychiatric prescribing. The logical positivist statistical probability statements which are currently used to support "evidence-based" prescribing rules in psychiatry have little clinical or ethical justification when subjected to critical analysis from any of the major theories of probability and represent dangerous "spin" because they necessarily exclude the individual , intersubjective and ambiguous meaning of mental illness. A concept of "phenomenological probability" founded on Merleau-Ponty's philosophy of "phenomenological positivism" overcomes the clinically destructive "objectivist" and "subjectivist" consequences of logical positivist statistical probability and allows psychopharmacological treatments to be appropriately integrated into psychiatric treatment.

Evaluation of the statistical evidence for Characteristic Earthquakes in the frequency-magnitude distributions of Sumatra and other subduction zone regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naylor, M.; Main, I. G.; Greenhough, J.; Bell, A. F.; McCloskey, J.

2009-04-01

The Sumatran Boxing Day earthquake and subsequent large events provide an opportunity to re-evaluate the statistical evidence for characteristic earthquake events in frequency-magnitude distributions. Our aims are to (i) improve intuition regarding the properties of samples drawn from power laws, (ii) illustrate using random samples how appropriate Poisson confidence intervals can both aid the eye and provide an appropriate statistical evaluation of data drawn from power-law distributions, and (iii) apply these confidence intervals to test for evidence of characteristic earthquakes in subduction-zone frequency-magnitude distributions. We find no need for a characteristic model to describe frequency magnitude distributions in any of the investigated subduction zones, including Sumatra, due to an emergent skew in residuals of power law count data at high magnitudes combined with a sample bias for examining large earthquakes as candidate characteristic events.

A bibliometric analysis of statistical terms used in American Physical Therapy Association journals (2011-2012): evidence for educating physical therapists.

PubMed

Tilson, Julie K; Marshall, Katie; Tam, Jodi J; Fetters, Linda

2016-04-22

A primary barrier to the implementation of evidence based practice (EBP) in physical therapy is therapists' limited ability to understand and interpret statistics. Physical therapists demonstrate limited skills and report low self-efficacy for interpreting results of statistical procedures. While standards for physical therapist education include statistics, little empirical evidence is available to inform what should constitute such curricula. The purpose of this study was to conduct a census of the statistical terms and study designs used in physical therapy literature and to use the results to make recommendations for curricular development in physical therapist education. We conducted a bibliometric analysis of 14 peer-reviewed journals associated with the American Physical Therapy Association over 12 months (Oct 2011-Sept 2012). Trained raters recorded every statistical term appearing in identified systematic reviews, primary research reports, and case series and case reports. Investigator-reported study design was also recorded. Terms representing the same statistical test or concept were combined into a single, representative term. Cumulative percentage was used to identify the most common representative statistical terms. Common representative terms were organized into eight categories to inform curricular design. Of 485 articles reviewed, 391 met the inclusion criteria. These 391 articles used 532 different terms which were combined into 321 representative terms; 13.1 (sd = 8.0) terms per article. Eighty-one representative terms constituted 90% of all representative term occurrences. Of the remaining 240 representative terms, 105 (44%) were used in only one article. The most common study design was prospective cohort (32.5%). Physical therapy literature contains a large number of statistical terms and concepts for readers to navigate. However, in the year sampled, 81 representative terms accounted for 90% of all occurrences. These "common representative terms" can be used to inform curricula to promote physical therapists' skills, competency, and confidence in interpreting statistics in their professional literature. We make specific recommendations for curriculum development informed by our findings.

Research Design and Statistical Methods in Indian Medical Journals: A Retrospective Survey

PubMed Central

Hassan, Shabbeer; Yellur, Rajashree; Subramani, Pooventhan; Adiga, Poornima; Gokhale, Manoj; Iyer, Manasa S.; Mayya, Shreemathi S.

2015-01-01

Good quality medical research generally requires not only an expertise in the chosen medical field of interest but also a sound knowledge of statistical methodology. The number of medical research articles which have been published in Indian medical journals has increased quite substantially in the past decade. The aim of this study was to collate all evidence on study design quality and statistical analyses used in selected leading Indian medical journals. Ten (10) leading Indian medical journals were selected based on impact factors and all original research articles published in 2003 (N = 588) and 2013 (N = 774) were categorized and reviewed. A validated checklist on study design, statistical analyses, results presentation, and interpretation was used for review and evaluation of the articles. Main outcomes considered in the present study were – study design types and their frequencies, error/defects proportion in study design, statistical analyses, and implementation of CONSORT checklist in RCT (randomized clinical trials). From 2003 to 2013: The proportion of erroneous statistical analyses did not decrease (χ2=0.592, Φ=0.027, p=0.4418), 25% (80/320) in 2003 compared to 22.6% (111/490) in 2013. Compared with 2003, significant improvement was seen in 2013; the proportion of papers using statistical tests increased significantly (χ2=26.96, Φ=0.16, p<0.0001) from 42.5% (250/588) to 56.7 % (439/774). The overall proportion of errors in study design decreased significantly (χ2=16.783, Φ=0.12 p<0.0001), 41.3% (243/588) compared to 30.6% (237/774). In 2013, randomized clinical trials designs has remained very low (7.3%, 43/588) with majority showing some errors (41 papers, 95.3%). Majority of the published studies were retrospective in nature both in 2003 [79.1% (465/588)] and in 2013 [78.2% (605/774)]. Major decreases in error proportions were observed in both results presentation (χ2=24.477, Φ=0.17, p<0.0001), 82.2% (263/320) compared to 66.3% (325/490) and interpretation (χ2=25.616, Φ=0.173, p<0.0001), 32.5% (104/320) compared to 17.1% (84/490), though some serious ones were still present. Indian medical research seems to have made no major progress regarding using correct statistical analyses, but error/defects in study designs have decreased significantly. Randomized clinical trials are quite rarely published and have high proportion of methodological problems. PMID:25856194

Research design and statistical methods in Indian medical journals: a retrospective survey.

PubMed

Hassan, Shabbeer; Yellur, Rajashree; Subramani, Pooventhan; Adiga, Poornima; Gokhale, Manoj; Iyer, Manasa S; Mayya, Shreemathi S

2015-01-01

Good quality medical research generally requires not only an expertise in the chosen medical field of interest but also a sound knowledge of statistical methodology. The number of medical research articles which have been published in Indian medical journals has increased quite substantially in the past decade. The aim of this study was to collate all evidence on study design quality and statistical analyses used in selected leading Indian medical journals. Ten (10) leading Indian medical journals were selected based on impact factors and all original research articles published in 2003 (N = 588) and 2013 (N = 774) were categorized and reviewed. A validated checklist on study design, statistical analyses, results presentation, and interpretation was used for review and evaluation of the articles. Main outcomes considered in the present study were - study design types and their frequencies, error/defects proportion in study design, statistical analyses, and implementation of CONSORT checklist in RCT (randomized clinical trials). From 2003 to 2013: The proportion of erroneous statistical analyses did not decrease (χ2=0.592, Φ=0.027, p=0.4418), 25% (80/320) in 2003 compared to 22.6% (111/490) in 2013. Compared with 2003, significant improvement was seen in 2013; the proportion of papers using statistical tests increased significantly (χ2=26.96, Φ=0.16, p<0.0001) from 42.5% (250/588) to 56.7 % (439/774). The overall proportion of errors in study design decreased significantly (χ2=16.783, Φ=0.12 p<0.0001), 41.3% (243/588) compared to 30.6% (237/774). In 2013, randomized clinical trials designs has remained very low (7.3%, 43/588) with majority showing some errors (41 papers, 95.3%). Majority of the published studies were retrospective in nature both in 2003 [79.1% (465/588)] and in 2013 [78.2% (605/774)]. Major decreases in error proportions were observed in both results presentation (χ2=24.477, Φ=0.17, p<0.0001), 82.2% (263/320) compared to 66.3% (325/490) and interpretation (χ2=25.616, Φ=0.173, p<0.0001), 32.5% (104/320) compared to 17.1% (84/490), though some serious ones were still present. Indian medical research seems to have made no major progress regarding using correct statistical analyses, but error/defects in study designs have decreased significantly. Randomized clinical trials are quite rarely published and have high proportion of methodological problems.

Epidemiological criteria for evidence of beneficial or adverse effects of elevated dosages of vitamins.

PubMed

Bruppacher, R

1989-01-01

Criteria for epidemiological evidence of effects of elevated dosages of vitamins are basically the same as those for the evidence of effects of other exposures. Given the unambiguous classifications of both exposure and cases, they comprise strength, significance, specificity, and consistency of the statistical association, plausible time relationship as well as dose-effect relationship and consistency with other evidence. Today, the term epidemiological evidence usually refers to field experience, often to "observational," i.e., non-experimental, evidence. An extreme example for this are the so-called "ecological studies," which are frequently criticized because of their potential for exaggerated interpretations, though they can be very helpful in constructing and supporting hypotheses. For very rare and long-term effects the description and evaluation of individual cases are often combined with attempts of quantification, by relating them to the estimated exposure of the source population. This is subject to numerous sources of errors. If it is difficult to confirm the existence of rare and late effects, as the collection and interpretation of data on the prevention of such effects often present almost insurmountable methodological challenges. However, with correct interpretation and by keeping the quantitative perspective in mind, epidemiological evidence can be extremely helpful in the assessment of the overall importance, i.e., the public health significance, of such effects.

Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: Temperature trends revisited

PubMed Central

Pascual, M.; Ahumada, J. A.; Chaves, L. F.; Rodó, X.; Bouma, M.

2006-01-01

The incidence of malaria in the East African highlands has increased since the end of the 1970s. The role of climate change in the exacerbation of the disease has been controversial, and the specific influence of rising temperature (warming) has been highly debated following a previous study reporting no evidence to support a trend in temperature. We revisit this result using the same temperature data, now updated to the present from 1950 to 2002 for four high-altitude sites in East Africa where malaria has become a serious public health problem. With both nonparametric and parametric statistical analyses, we find evidence for a significant warming trend at all sites. To assess the biological significance of this trend, we drive a dynamical model for the population dynamics of the mosquito vector with the temperature time series and the corresponding detrended versions. This approach suggests that the observed temperature changes would be significantly amplified by the mosquito population dynamics with a difference in the biological response at least 1 order of magnitude larger than that in the environmental variable. Our results emphasize the importance of considering not just the statistical significance of climate trends but also their biological implications with dynamical models. PMID:16571662

Statistical Hierarchy of Varying Speed of Light Cosmologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salzano, Vincenzo; Da¸browski, Mariusz P.

2017-12-01

Many varying speed of light (VSL) theories have been developed recently. Here we address the issue of their observational verification in a fully comprehensive way. By using the most updated cosmological probes, we test three different candidates for a VSL theory (Barrow & Magueijo, Avelino & Martins, and Moffat). We consider many different Ansätze for both the functional form of c(z) and the dark energy dynamics. We compare these results using a reliable statistical tool such as the Bayesian evidence. We find that the present cosmological data are perfectly compatible with any of these VSL scenarios, but for the Moffat model there is a higher Bayesian evidence ratio in favor of VSL rather than the c = constant ΛCDM scenario. Moreover, in such a scenario, the VSL signal can help to strengthen constraints on the spatial curvature (with indication toward an open universe), to clarify some properties of dark energy (exclusion of a cosmological constant at 2σ level), and is also falsifiable in the near future owing to peculiar issues that differentiate this model from the standard one. Finally, we apply an information prior and entropy prior in order to put physical constraints on the models, though still in favor Moffat’s proposal.

Current trends in treatment of hypertension in Karachi and cost minimization possibilities.

PubMed

Hussain, Izhar M; Naqvi, Baqir S; Qasim, Rao M; Ali, Nasir

2015-01-01

This study finds out drug usage trends in Stage I Hypertensive Patients without any compelling indications in Karachi, deviations of current practices from evidence based antihypertensive therapeutic guidelines and looks for cost minimization opportunities. In the present study conducted during June 2012 to August 2012, two sets were used. Randomized stratified independent surveys were conducted in doctors and general population - including patients, using pretested questionnaires. Sample sizes for doctors and general population were 100 and 400 respectively. Statistical analysis was conducted on Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS). Financial impact was also analyzed. On the basis of patients' doctors' feedback, Beta Blockers, and Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibitors were used more frequently than other drugs. Thiazides and low-priced generics were hardly prescribed. Beta blockers were prescribed widely and considered cost effective. This trend increases cost by two to ten times. Feedbacks showed that therapeutic guidelines were not followed by the doctors practicing in the community and hospitals in Karachi. Thiazide diuretics were hardly used. Beta blockers were widely prescribed. High priced market leaders or expensive branded generics were commonly prescribed. Therefore, there are great opportunities for cost minimization by using evidence-based clinically effective and safe medicines.

Physical Activity and Safety From Crime Among Adults: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

da Silva, Inacio C; Payne, Valerie L; Hino, Adriano Akira; Varela, Andrea Ramirez; Reis, Rodrigo S; Ekelund, Ulf; Hallal, Pedro C

2016-06-01

The aim of this study was to review the evidence to date on the association between physical activity and safety from crime. Articles with adult populations of 500+ participants investigating the association between physical activity and safety from crime were included. A methodological quality assessment was conducted using an adapted version of the Downs and Black checklist. The literature search identified 15,864 articles. After assessment of titles, abstracts and full-texts, 89 articles were included. Most articles (84.3%) were derived from high-income countries and only 3 prospective articles were identified. Articles presented high methodological quality. In 38 articles (42.7%), at least one statistically significant association in the expected direction was reported (ie, safety from crime was positively associated with physical activity). Nine articles (10.1%) found an association in the unexpected direction and 42 (47.2%) did not find statistically significant associations. The results did not change when we analyzed articles separately by sex, age, type of measurement, or domains of physical activity evaluated. The current evidence, mostly based on cross-sectional studies, suggests a lack of association between physical activity and safety from crime. Prospective studies and natural experiments are needed, particularly in areas with wide crime variability.

On the association between synoptic circulation and wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, A.; Paschalidou, A. K.; Kassomenos, P. A.; McGregor, G.

2014-02-01

In the present paper cluster analysis of 2-month air mass back-trajectories for three contrasting fire and non-fire events is conducted (high, low, and zero burnt area). The large fire event displays an air mass history dissimilar to other events whereby a 39-day period of warm and dry chiefly northerly anticyclonic conditions is evident, before a week of warmer predominantly southwesterly cyclonic activity, immediately prior to ignition. The pressure level of these anticyclonic air masses is above 800 hPa for more than 75 % of the trajectory length; this region is above the principal moisture transport regime of 800 hPa altitude. Analysis of variance on the mean rate of change of potential temperature identified weak statistically significant differences between two air mass pairs regarding the large fire: anticyclonic and cyclonic air masses in both cases ( p = 0.038 and p = 0.020). Such regularity of type and occurrence, approach pressure levels and statistically significant differences are not evident for the small and non-fire event air masses. Such understanding is expected to permit appropriate steps to be undertaken including superior prediction and improved suppression strategy.

Natural image statistics mediate brightness 'filling in'.

PubMed

Dakin, Steven C; Bex, Peter J

2003-11-22

Although the human visual system can accurately estimate the reflectance (or lightness) of surfaces under enormous variations in illumination, two equiluminant grey regions can be induced to appear quite different simply by placing a light-dark luminance transition between them. This illusion, the Craik-Cornsweet-O'Brien (CCOB) effect, has been taken as evidence for a low-level 'filling-in' mechanism subserving lightness perception. Here, we present evidence that the mechanism responsible for the CCOB effect operates not via propagation of a neural signal across space but by amplification of the low spatial frequency (SF) structure of the image. We develop a simple computational model that relies on the statistics of natural scenes actively to reconstruct the image that is most likely to have caused an observed series of responses across SF channels. This principle is tested psychophysically by deriving classification images (CIs) for subjects' discrimination of the contrast polarity of CCOB stimuli masked with noise. CIs resemble 'filled-in' stimuli; i.e. observers rely on portions of the stimuli that contain no information per se but that correspond closely to the reported perceptual completion. As predicted by the model, the filling-in process is contingent on the presence of appropriate low SF structure.

Enhanced visual statistical learning in adults with autism

PubMed Central

Roser, Matthew E.; Aslin, Richard N.; McKenzie, Rebecca; Zahra, Daniel; Fiser, József

2014-01-01

Individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are often characterized as having social engagement and language deficiencies, but a sparing of visuo-spatial processing and short-term memory, with some evidence of supra-normal levels of performance in these domains. The present study expanded on this evidence by investigating the observational learning of visuospatial concepts from patterns of covariation across multiple exemplars. Child and adult participants with ASD, and age-matched control participants, viewed multi-shape arrays composed from a random combination of pairs of shapes that were each positioned in a fixed spatial arrangement. After this passive exposure phase, a post-test revealed that all participant groups could discriminate pairs of shapes with high covariation from randomly paired shapes with low covariation. Moreover, learning these shape-pairs with high covariation was superior in adults with ASD than in age-matched controls, while performance in children with ASD was no different than controls. These results extend previous observations of visuospatial enhancement in ASD into the domain of learning, and suggest that enhanced visual statistical learning may have arisen from a sustained bias to attend to local details in complex arrays of visual features. PMID:25151115

Approaching Career Criminals With An Intelligence Cycle

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

including arrest statistics and “arrest statistics have been used as the main barometer of juvenile delinquent activity, (but) many juvenile... Statistical Briefing Book,” 187. 26 guided by theories about the causes of delinquent behavior, but there was no determination if those efforts achieved the...children.”110 However, the most evidence-based comparison of juvenile delinquency reduction programs is the statistical meta-analysis (a systematic

Characteristics of level-spacing statistics in chaotic graphene billiards.

PubMed

Huang, Liang; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Grebogi, Celso

2011-03-01

A fundamental result in nonrelativistic quantum nonlinear dynamics is that the spectral statistics of quantum systems that possess no geometric symmetry, but whose classical dynamics are chaotic, are described by those of the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE) or the Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE), in the presence or absence of time-reversal symmetry, respectively. For massless spin-half particles such as neutrinos in relativistic quantum mechanics in a chaotic billiard, the seminal work of Berry and Mondragon established the GUE nature of the level-spacing statistics, due to the combination of the chirality of Dirac particles and the confinement, which breaks the time-reversal symmetry. A question is whether the GOE or the GUE statistics can be observed in experimentally accessible, relativistic quantum systems. We demonstrate, using graphene confinements in which the quasiparticle motions are governed by the Dirac equation in the low-energy regime, that the level-spacing statistics are persistently those of GOE random matrices. We present extensive numerical evidence obtained from the tight-binding approach and a physical explanation for the GOE statistics. We also find that the presence of a weak magnetic field switches the statistics to those of GUE. For a strong magnetic field, Landau levels become influential, causing the level-spacing distribution to deviate markedly from the random-matrix predictions. Issues addressed also include the effects of a number of realistic factors on level-spacing statistics such as next nearest-neighbor interactions, different lattice orientations, enhanced hopping energy for atoms on the boundary, and staggered potential due to graphene-substrate interactions.

Reynolds number dependence of relative dispersion statistics in isotropic turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawford, Brian L.; Yeung, P. K.; Hackl, Jason F.

2008-06-01

Direct numerical simulation results for a range of relative dispersion statistics over Taylor-scale Reynolds numbers up to 650 are presented in an attempt to observe and quantify inertial subrange scaling and, in particular, Richardson's t3 law. The analysis includes the mean-square separation and a range of important but less-studied differential statistics for which the motion is defined relative to that at time t =0. It seeks to unambiguously identify and quantify the Richardson scaling by demonstrating convergence with both the Reynolds number and initial separation. According to these criteria, the standard compensated plots for these statistics in inertial subrange scaling show clear evidence of a Richardson range but with an imprecise estimate for the Richardson constant. A modified version of the cube-root plots introduced by Ott and Mann [J. Fluid Mech. 422, 207 (2000)] confirms such convergence. It has been used to yield more precise estimates for Richardson's constant g which decrease with Taylor-scale Reynolds numbers over the range of 140-650. Extrapolation to the large Reynolds number limit gives an asymptotic value for Richardson's constant in the range g =0.55-0.57, depending on the functional form used to make the extrapolation.

Statistical Characterization of the Mechanical Parameters of Intact Rock Under Triaxial Compression: An Experimental Proof of the Jinping Marble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Quan; Zhong, Shan; Cui, Jie; Feng, Xia-Ting; Song, Leibo

2016-12-01

We investigated the statistical characteristics and probability distribution of the mechanical parameters of natural rock using triaxial compression tests. Twenty cores of Jinping marble were tested under each different levels of confining stress (i.e., 5, 10, 20, 30, and 40 MPa). From these full stress-strain data, we summarized the numerical characteristics and determined the probability distribution form of several important mechanical parameters, including deformational parameters, characteristic strength, characteristic strains, and failure angle. The statistical proofs relating to the mechanical parameters of rock presented new information about the marble's probabilistic distribution characteristics. The normal and log-normal distributions were appropriate for describing random strengths of rock; the coefficients of variation of the peak strengths had no relationship to the confining stress; the only acceptable random distribution for both Young's elastic modulus and Poisson's ratio was the log-normal function; and the cohesive strength had a different probability distribution pattern than the frictional angle. The triaxial tests and statistical analysis also provided experimental evidence for deciding the minimum reliable number of experimental sample and for picking appropriate parameter distributions to use in reliability calculations for rock engineering.

Evidential evaluation of DNA profiles using a discrete statistical model implemented in the DNA LiRa software.

PubMed

Puch-Solis, Roberto; Clayton, Tim

2014-07-01

The high sensitivity of the technology for producing profiles means that it has become routine to produce profiles from relatively small quantities of DNA. The profiles obtained from low template DNA (LTDNA) are affected by several phenomena which must be taken into consideration when interpreting and evaluating this evidence. Furthermore, many of the same phenomena affect profiles from higher amounts of DNA (e.g. where complex mixtures has been revealed). In this article we present a statistical model, which forms the basis of software DNA LiRa, and that is able to calculate likelihood ratios where one to four donors are postulated and for any number of replicates. The model can take into account dropin and allelic dropout for different contributors, template degradation and uncertain allele designations. In this statistical model unknown parameters are treated following the Empirical Bayesian paradigm. The performance of LiRa is tested using examples and the outputs are compared with those generated using two other statistical software packages likeLTD and LRmix. The concept of ban efficiency is introduced as a measure for assessing model sensitivity. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Quantitative methods used in Australian health promotion research: a review of publications from 1992-2002.

PubMed

Smith, Ben J; Zehle, Katharina; Bauman, Adrian E; Chau, Josephine; Hawkshaw, Barbara; Frost, Steven; Thomas, Margaret

2006-04-01

This study examined the use of quantitative methods in Australian health promotion research in order to identify methodological trends and priorities for strengthening the evidence base for health promotion. Australian health promotion articles were identified by hand searching publications from 1992-2002 in six journals: Health Promotion Journal of Australia, Australian and New Zealand journal of Public Health, Health Promotion International, Health Education Research, Health Education and Behavior and the American Journal of Health Promotion. The study designs and statistical methods used in articles presenting quantitative research were recorded. 591 (57.7%) of the 1,025 articles used quantitative methods. Cross-sectional designs were used in the majority (54.3%) of studies with pre- and post-test (14.6%) and post-test only (9.5%) the next most common designs. Bivariate statistical methods were used in 45.9% of papers, multivariate methods in 27.1% and simple numbers and proportions in 25.4%. Few studies used higher-level statistical techniques. While most studies used quantitative methods, the majority were descriptive in nature. The study designs and statistical methods used provided limited scope for demonstrating intervention effects or understanding the determinants of change.

Comparative analysis of the effects combined physical procedures and alpha-lipoic acid on the electroneurographic parameters of patients with distal sensorimotor diabetic polyneuropathy

PubMed Central

Grbovic, Vesna; Jurisic-Skevin, Aleksandra; Djukic, Svetlana; Stefanović, Srdjan; Nurkovic, Jasmin

2016-01-01

[Purpose] Painful diabetic polyneuropathy occurs as a complication in 16% of all patients with diabetes mellitus. [Subjects and Methods] A clinical, prospective open-label randomized intervention study was conducted of 60 adult patients, with distal sensorimotor diabetic neuropathy two groups of 30 patients, with diabetes mellitus type 2 with distal sensorimotor diabetic neuropathy. Patients in group A were treated with combined physical procedures, and patients in group B were treated with alpha lipoic acid. [Results] There where a statistically significant improvements in terminal latency and the amplitude of the action potential in group A patients, while group B patients showed a statistically significant improvements in conduction velocity and terminal latency of n. peroneus. Group A patients showed a statistically significant improvements in conduction velocity and terminal latency, while group B patients also showed a statistically significant improvements in conduction velocity and terminal latency. This was reflected in a significant improvements in electrophysiological parameters (conduction velocity, amplitude and latency) of the motor and sensory nerves (n. peroneus, n. suralis). [Conclusion] These results present further evidence justifying of the use of physical agents in the treatment of diabetic sensorimotor polyneuropathy. PMID:27065527

Statistical analysis of secondary particle distributions in relativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguire, Stephen C.

1987-01-01

The use is described of several statistical techniques to characterize structure in the angular distributions of secondary particles from nucleus-nucleus collisions in the energy range 24 to 61 GeV/nucleon. The objective of this work was to determine whether there are correlations between emitted particle intensity and angle that may be used to support the existence of the quark gluon plasma. The techniques include chi-square null hypothesis tests, the method of discrete Fourier transform analysis, and fluctuation analysis. We have also used the method of composite unit vectors to test for azimuthal asymmetry in a data set of 63 JACEE-3 events. Each method is presented in a manner that provides the reader with some practical detail regarding its application. Of those events with relatively high statistics, Fe approaches 0 at 55 GeV/nucleon was found to possess an azimuthal distribution with a highly non-random structure. No evidence of non-statistical fluctuations was found in the pseudo-rapidity distributions of the events studied. It is seen that the most effective application of these methods relies upon the availability of many events or single events that possess very high multiplicities.

Undergraduate medical students’ perceptions, attitudes, and competencies in evidence-based medicine (EBM), and their understanding of EBM reality in Syria

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Teaching evidence-based medicine (EBM) should be evaluated and guided by evidence of its own effectiveness. However, no data are available on adoption of EBM by Syrian undergraduate, postgraduate, or practicing physicians. In fact, the teaching of EBM in Syria is not yet a part of undergraduate medical curricula. The authors evaluated education of evidence-based medicine through a two-day intensive training course. Methods The authors evaluated education of evidence-based medicine through a two-day intensive training course that took place in 2011. The course included didactic lectures as well as interactive hands-on workshops on all topics of EBM. A comprehensive questionnaire, that included the Berlin questionnaire, was used to inspect medical students’ awareness of, attitudes toward, and competencies’ in EBM. Results According to students, problems facing proper EBM practice in Syria were the absence of the following: an EBM teaching module in medical school curriculum (94%), role models among professors and instructors (92%), a librarian (70%), institutional subscription to medical journals (94%), and sufficient IT hardware (58%). After the course, there was a statistically significant increase in medical students' perceived ability to go through steps of EBM, namely: formulating PICO questions (56.9%), searching for evidence (39.8%), appraising the evidence (27.3%), understanding statistics (48%), and applying evidence at point of care (34.1%). However, mean increase in Berlin scores after the course was 2.68, a non-statistically significant increase of 17.86%. Conclusion The road to a better EBM reality in Syria starts with teaching EBM in medical school and developing the proper environment to facilitate transforming current medical education and practice to an evidence-based standard in Syria. PMID:22882872

Undergraduate medical students' perceptions, attitudes, and competencies in evidence-based medicine (EBM), and their understanding of EBM reality in Syria.

PubMed

Alahdab, Fares; Firwana, Belal; Hasan, Rim; Sonbol, Mohamad Bassam; Fares, Munes; Alnahhas, Iyad; Sabouni, Ammar; Ferwana, Mazen

2012-08-12

Teaching evidence-based medicine (EBM) should be evaluated and guided by evidence of its own effectiveness. However, no data are available on adoption of EBM by Syrian undergraduate, postgraduate, or practicing physicians. In fact, the teaching of EBM in Syria is not yet a part of undergraduate medical curricula. The authors evaluated education of evidence-based medicine through a two-day intensive training course. The authors evaluated education of evidence-based medicine through a two-day intensive training course that took place in 2011. The course included didactic lectures as well as interactive hands-on workshops on all topics of EBM. A comprehensive questionnaire, that included the Berlin questionnaire, was used to inspect medical students' awareness of, attitudes toward, and competencies' in EBM. According to students, problems facing proper EBM practice in Syria were the absence of the following: an EBM teaching module in medical school curriculum (94%), role models among professors and instructors (92%), a librarian (70%), institutional subscription to medical journals (94%), and sufficient IT hardware (58%). After the course, there was a statistically significant increase in medical students' perceived ability to go through steps of EBM, namely: formulating PICO questions (56.9%), searching for evidence (39.8%), appraising the evidence (27.3%), understanding statistics (48%), and applying evidence at point of care (34.1%). However, mean increase in Berlin scores after the course was 2.68, a non-statistically significant increase of 17.86%. The road to a better EBM reality in Syria starts with teaching EBM in medical school and developing the proper environment to facilitate transforming current medical education and practice to an evidence-based standard in Syria.

Exchanging the liquidity hypothesis: Delay discounting of money and self-relevant non-money rewards.

PubMed

Stuppy-Sullivan, Allison M; Tormohlen, Kayla N; Yi, Richard

2016-01-01

Evidence that primary rewards (e.g., food and drugs of abuse) are discounted more than money is frequently attributed to money's high degree of liquidity, or exchangeability for many commodities. The present study provides some evidence against this liquidity hypothesis by contrasting delay discounting of monetary rewards (liquid) and non-monetary commodities (non-liquid) that are self-relevant and utility-matched. Ninety-seven (97) undergraduate students initially completed a conventional binary-choice delay discounting of money task. Participants returned one week later and completed a self-relevant commodity delay discounting task. Both conventional hypothesis testing and more-conservative tests of statistical equivalence revealed correspondence in rate of delay discounting of money and self-relevant commodities, and in one magnitude condition, less discounting for the latter. The present results indicate that liquidity of money cannot fully account for the lower rate of delay discounting compared to non-money rewards. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association between smoking status and the parameters of vascular structure and function in adults: results from the EVIDENT study.

PubMed

Recio-Rodriguez, Jose I; Gomez-Marcos, Manuel A; Patino Alonso, Maria C; Martin-Cantera, Carlos; Ibañez-Jalon, Elisa; Melguizo-Bejar, Amor; Garcia-Ortiz, Luis

2013-12-01

The present study analyses the relation between smoking status and the parameters used to assess vascular structure and function. This cross-sectional, multi-centre study involved a random sample of 1553 participants from the EVIDENT study. The smoking status, peripheral augmentation index and ankle-brachial index were measured in all participants. In a small subset of the main population (265 participants), the carotid intima-media thickness and pulse wave velocity were also measured. After controlling for the effect of age, sex and other risk factors, present smokers have higher values of carotid intima-media thickness (p = 0.011). Along the same lines, current smokers have higher values of pulse wave velocity and lower mean values of ankle-brachial index but without statistical significance in both cases. Among the parameters of vascular structure and function analysed, only the IMT shows association with the smoking status, after adjusting for confounders.

Cross-language Transfer of Metalinguistic Skills: Evidence from Spelling English Words by Korean Students in Grades 4, 5 and 6.

PubMed

Yeon, Sookkyung; Bae, Han Suk; Joshi, R Malatesha

2017-11-01

The present study examined unique and shared contributions of Korean (first language) phonological, orthographic and morphological awareness (PA, OA and MA, respectively) to English (second/foreign language) spelling among 287 fourth-grade, fifth-grade and sixth-grade Korean children. Korean measures of PA, OA and MA were administered, in addition to English vocabulary and spelling measures. Results from structural equation modelling showed that PA, OA and MA were caused by one common construct, metalinguistic awareness (META), and the contribution of Korean META to English spelling was statistically significant, controlling for English vocabulary. In particular, Korean MA and PA played unique roles in explaining English spelling; whereas Korean OA did not significantly contribute to English spelling. Findings from the present study provided empirical evidence of first language META transfer effect on second/foreign language spelling development. Educational implications and future research ideas are discussed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hunting down the best model of inflation with Bayesian evidence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin, Jerome; Ringeval, Christophe; Trotta, Roberto

2011-03-15

We present the first calculation of the Bayesian evidence for different prototypical single field inflationary scenarios, including representative classes of small field and large field models. This approach allows us to compare inflationary models in a well-defined statistical way and to determine the current 'best model of inflation'. The calculation is performed numerically by interfacing the inflationary code FieldInf with MultiNest. We find that small field models are currently preferred, while large field models having a self-interacting potential of power p>4 are strongly disfavored. The class of small field models as a whole has posterior odds of approximately 3 ratiomore » 1 when compared with the large field class. The methodology and results presented in this article are an additional step toward the construction of a full numerical pipeline to constrain the physics of the early Universe with astrophysical observations. More accurate data (such as the Planck data) and the techniques introduced here should allow us to identify conclusively the best inflationary model.« less

Association between smoking status and the parameters of vascular structure and function in adults: results from the EVIDENT study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The present study analyses the relation between smoking status and the parameters used to assess vascular structure and function. Methods This cross-sectional, multi-centre study involved a random sample of 1553 participants from the EVIDENT study. Measurements: The smoking status, peripheral augmentation index and ankle-brachial index were measured in all participants. In a small subset of the main population (265 participants), the carotid intima-media thickness and pulse wave velocity were also measured. Results After controlling for the effect of age, sex and other risk factors, present smokers have higher values of carotid intima-media thickness (p = 0.011). Along the same lines, current smokers have higher values of pulse wave velocity and lower mean values of ankle-brachial index but without statistical significance in both cases. Conclusions Among the parameters of vascular structure and function analysed, only the IMT shows association with the smoking status, after adjusting for confounders. PMID:24289208

The Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema: a review of the biomarker-surrogate literature and a proposal for a criterion-based, quantitative, multidimensional hierarchical levels of evidence schema for evaluating the status of biomarkers as surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Lassere, Marissa N

2008-06-01

There are clear advantages to using biomarkers and surrogate endpoints, but concerns about clinical and statistical validity and systematic methods to evaluate these aspects hinder their efficient application. Section 2 is a systematic, historical review of the biomarker-surrogate endpoint literature with special reference to the nomenclature, the systems of classification and statistical methods developed for their evaluation. In Section 3 an explicit, criterion-based, quantitative, multidimensional hierarchical levels of evidence schema - Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema - is proposed to evaluate and co-ordinate the multiple dimensions (biological, epidemiological, statistical, clinical trial and risk-benefit evidence) of the biomarker clinical endpoint relationships. The schema systematically evaluates and ranks the surrogacy status of biomarkers and surrogate endpoints using defined levels of evidence. The schema incorporates the three independent domains: Study Design, Target Outcome and Statistical Evaluation. Each domain has items ranked from zero to five. An additional category called Penalties incorporates additional considerations of biological plausibility, risk-benefit and generalizability. The total score (0-15) determines the level of evidence, with Level 1 the strongest and Level 5 the weakest. The term ;surrogate' is restricted to markers attaining Levels 1 or 2 only. Surrogacy status of markers can then be directly compared within and across different areas of medicine to guide individual, trial-based or drug-development decisions. This schema would facilitate communication between clinical, researcher, regulatory, industry and consumer participants necessary for evaluation of the biomarker-surrogate-clinical endpoint relationship in their different settings.

Evaluation of forensic DNA mixture evidence: protocol for evaluation, interpretation, and statistical calculations using the combined probability of inclusion.

PubMed

Bieber, Frederick R; Buckleton, John S; Budowle, Bruce; Butler, John M; Coble, Michael D

2016-08-31

The evaluation and interpretation of forensic DNA mixture evidence faces greater interpretational challenges due to increasingly complex mixture evidence. Such challenges include: casework involving low quantity or degraded evidence leading to allele and locus dropout; allele sharing of contributors leading to allele stacking; and differentiation of PCR stutter artifacts from true alleles. There is variation in statistical approaches used to evaluate the strength of the evidence when inclusion of a specific known individual(s) is determined, and the approaches used must be supportable. There are concerns that methods utilized for interpretation of complex forensic DNA mixtures may not be implemented properly in some casework. Similar questions are being raised in a number of U.S. jurisdictions, leading to some confusion about mixture interpretation for current and previous casework. Key elements necessary for the interpretation and statistical evaluation of forensic DNA mixtures are described. Given the most common method for statistical evaluation of DNA mixtures in many parts of the world, including the USA, is the Combined Probability of Inclusion/Exclusion (CPI/CPE). Exposition and elucidation of this method and a protocol for use is the focus of this article. Formulae and other supporting materials are provided. Guidance and details of a DNA mixture interpretation protocol is provided for application of the CPI/CPE method in the analysis of more complex forensic DNA mixtures. This description, in turn, should help reduce the variability of interpretation with application of this methodology and thereby improve the quality of DNA mixture interpretation throughout the forensic community.

Electrophysiological Evidence of Heterogeneity in Visual Statistical Learning in Young Children with ASD

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jeste, Shafali S.; Kirkham, Natasha; Senturk, Damla; Hasenstab, Kyle; Sugar, Catherine; Kupelian, Chloe; Baker, Elizabeth; Sanders, Andrew J.; Shimizu, Christina; Norona, Amanda; Paparella, Tanya; Freeman, Stephanny F. N.; Johnson, Scott P.

2015-01-01

Statistical learning is characterized by detection of regularities in one's environment without an awareness or intention to learn, and it may play a critical role in language and social behavior. Accordingly, in this study we investigated the electrophysiological correlates of visual statistical learning in young children with autism…

The Necessity of the Hippocampus for Statistical Learning

PubMed Central

Covington, Natalie V.; Brown-Schmidt, Sarah; Duff, Melissa C.

2018-01-01

Converging evidence points to a role for the hippocampus in statistical learning, but open questions about its necessity remain. Evidence for necessity comes from Schapiro and colleagues who report that a single patient with damage to hippocampus and broader medial temporal lobe cortex was unable to discriminate new from old sequences in several statistical learning tasks. The aim of the current study was to replicate these methods in a larger group of patients who have either damage localized to hippocampus or a broader medial temporal lobe damage, to ascertain the necessity of the hippocampus in statistical learning. Patients with hippocampal damage consistently showed less learning overall compared with healthy comparison participants, consistent with an emerging consensus for hippocampal contributions to statistical learning. Interestingly, lesion size did not reliably predict performance. However, patients with hippocampal damage were not uniformly at chance and demonstrated above-chance performance in some task variants. These results suggest that hippocampus is necessary for statistical learning levels achieved by most healthy comparison participants but significant hippocampal pathology alone does not abolish such learning. PMID:29308986

On P values and effect modification.

PubMed

Mayer, Martin

2017-12-01

A crucial element of evidence-based healthcare is the sound understanding and use of statistics. As part of instilling sound statistical knowledge and practice, it seems useful to highlight instances of unsound statistical reasoning or practice, not merely in captious or vitriolic spirit, but rather, to use such error as a springboard for edification by giving tangibility to the concepts at hand and highlighting the importance of avoiding such error. This article aims to provide an instructive overview of two key statistical concepts: effect modification and P values. A recent article published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology on side effects related to statin therapy offers a notable example of errors in understanding effect modification and P values, and although not so critical as to entirely invalidate the article, the errors still demand considerable scrutiny and correction. In doing so, this article serves as an instructive overview of the statistical concepts of effect modification and P values. Judicious handling of statistics is imperative to avoid muddying their utility. This article contributes to the body of literature aiming to improve the use of statistics, which in turn will help facilitate evidence appraisal, synthesis, translation, and application.

Alignments of parity even/odd-only multipoles in CMB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aluri, Pavan K.; Ralston, John P.; Weltman, Amanda

2017-12-01

We compare the statistics of parity even and odd multipoles of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) sky from Planck full mission temperature measurements. An excess power in odd multipoles compared to even multipoles has previously been found on large angular scales. Motivated by this apparent parity asymmetry, we evaluate directional statistics associated with even compared to odd multipoles, along with their significances. Primary tools are the Power tensor and Alignment tensor statistics. We limit our analysis to the first 60 multipoles i.e. l = [2, 61]. We find no evidence for statistically unusual alignments of even parity multipoles. More than one independent statistic finds evidence for alignments of anisotropy axes of odd multipoles, with a significance equivalent to ∼2σ or more. The robustness of alignment axes is tested by making Galactic cuts and varying the multipole range. Very interestingly, the region spanned by the (a)symmetry axes is found to broadly contain other parity (a)symmetry axes previously observed in the literature.

Whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by a causal structure intervention?

PubMed

McNair, Simon; Feeney, Aidan

2015-02-01

People often struggle when making Bayesian probabilistic estimates on the basis of competing sources of statistical evidence. Recently, Krynski and Tenenbaum (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136, 430-450, 2007) proposed that a causal Bayesian framework accounts for peoples' errors in Bayesian reasoning and showed that, by clarifying the causal relations among the pieces of evidence, judgments on a classic statistical reasoning problem could be significantly improved. We aimed to understand whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by the causal structure intervention. In Experiment 1, although we observed causal facilitation effects overall, the effect was confined to participants high in numeracy. We did not find an overall facilitation effect in Experiment 2 but did replicate the earlier interaction between numerical ability and the presence or absence of causal content. This effect held when we controlled for general cognitive ability and thinking disposition. Our results suggest that clarifying causal structure facilitates Bayesian judgments, but only for participants with sufficient understanding of basic concepts in probability and statistics.

Willingness to Share Research Data Is Related to the Strength of the Evidence and the Quality of Reporting of Statistical Results

PubMed Central

Wicherts, Jelte M.; Bakker, Marjan; Molenaar, Dylan

2011-01-01

Background The widespread reluctance to share published research data is often hypothesized to be due to the authors' fear that reanalysis may expose errors in their work or may produce conclusions that contradict their own. However, these hypotheses have not previously been studied systematically. Methods and Findings We related the reluctance to share research data for reanalysis to 1148 statistically significant results reported in 49 papers published in two major psychology journals. We found the reluctance to share data to be associated with weaker evidence (against the null hypothesis of no effect) and a higher prevalence of apparent errors in the reporting of statistical results. The unwillingness to share data was particularly clear when reporting errors had a bearing on statistical significance. Conclusions Our findings on the basis of psychological papers suggest that statistical results are particularly hard to verify when reanalysis is more likely to lead to contrasting conclusions. This highlights the importance of establishing mandatory data archiving policies. PMID:22073203

Significance levels for studies with correlated test statistics.

PubMed

Shi, Jianxin; Levinson, Douglas F; Whittemore, Alice S

2008-07-01

When testing large numbers of null hypotheses, one needs to assess the evidence against the global null hypothesis that none of the hypotheses is false. Such evidence typically is based on the test statistic of the largest magnitude, whose statistical significance is evaluated by permuting the sample units to simulate its null distribution. Efron (2007) has noted that correlation among the test statistics can induce substantial interstudy variation in the shapes of their histograms, which may cause misleading tail counts. Here, we show that permutation-based estimates of the overall significance level also can be misleading when the test statistics are correlated. We propose that such estimates be conditioned on a simple measure of the spread of the observed histogram, and we provide a method for obtaining conditional significance levels. We justify this conditioning using the conditionality principle described by Cox and Hinkley (1974). Application of the method to gene expression data illustrates the circumstances when conditional significance levels are needed.

Integrated Analysis of Pharmacologic, Clinical, and SNP Microarray Data using Projection onto the Most Interesting Statistical Evidence with Adaptive Permutation Testing

PubMed Central

Pounds, Stan; Cao, Xueyuan; Cheng, Cheng; Yang, Jun; Campana, Dario; Evans, William E.; Pui, Ching-Hon; Relling, Mary V.

2010-01-01

Powerful methods for integrated analysis of multiple biological data sets are needed to maximize interpretation capacity and acquire meaningful knowledge. We recently developed Projection Onto the Most Interesting Statistical Evidence (PROMISE). PROMISE is a statistical procedure that incorporates prior knowledge about the biological relationships among endpoint variables into an integrated analysis of microarray gene expression data with multiple biological and clinical endpoints. Here, PROMISE is adapted to the integrated analysis of pharmacologic, clinical, and genome-wide genotype data that incorporating knowledge about the biological relationships among pharmacologic and clinical response data. An efficient permutation-testing algorithm is introduced so that statistical calculations are computationally feasible in this higher-dimension setting. The new method is applied to a pediatric leukemia data set. The results clearly indicate that PROMISE is a powerful statistical tool for identifying genomic features that exhibit a biologically meaningful pattern of association with multiple endpoint variables. PMID:21516175

The Triangle Technique: a new evidence-based educational tool for pediatric medication calculations.

PubMed

Sredl, Darlene

2006-01-01

Many nursing student verbalize an aversion to mathematical concepts and experience math anxiety whenever a mathematical problem is confronted. Since nurses confront mathematical problems on a daily basis, they must learn to feel comfortable with their ability to perform these calculations correctly. The Triangle Technique, a new educational tool available to nurse educators, incorporates evidence-based concepts within a graphic model using visual, auditory, and kinesthetic learning styles to demonstrate pediatric medication calculations of normal therapeutic ranges. The theoretical framework for the technique is presented, as is a pilot study examining the efficacy of the educational tool. Statistically significant results obtained by Pearson's product-moment correlation indicate that students are better able to calculate accurate pediatric therapeutic dosage ranges after participation in the educational intervention of learning the Triangle Technique.

Positivism in sociological research: USA and UK (1966-1990).

PubMed

Gartrell, C David; Gartrell, John W

2002-12-01

Positivism has been declared dead in sociological theory circles, yet questions remain as to its viability among researchers. The authors present diagnostic evidence about positivism in sociological practice through a content analysis of journal articles published in the late 1960s and the late 1980s in the sociological journals of the USA and Britain. Using an index based on seven elements of positivism that were characteristic of the 'theory construction' movement of the late 1960s, the authors find evidence of the effects of time and nation on the use of positivism. Disaggregation of the index reveals that most of the observed change is associated with the elements of 'instrumental' positivism, particularly statistics. The results raise questions about the relationship between theory and research and about sociologists' philosophies of science.

Intrinsic Factors Influencing Decision making of Arbitrators in Dispute Resolution of variation Claims

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, K. C.; Chaphalkar, N. B.; Patil, Smita K.

2018-06-01

Occurrence of disputes is a common feature in construction contracts. Adjudication of disputes through the arbitration process involves detailed and through analysis of facts and evidences related to the case before arriving at the final decision. These facts and evidences have been explored by researchers to develop dispute resolution mechanisms. As a part of the research, the present work identifies the factors which influence the decision making of arbitrators in resolving disputes through a case study of 72 arbitration awards and settled court cases related to Indian construction contracts. This work further seeks consensus for the identified factors from experts and also ranks the factors based on their importance with the help of the responses obtained through a questionnaire survey and statistical tests.

The double-deficit hypothesis: a comprehensive analysis of the evidence.

PubMed

Vukovic, Rose K; Siegel, Linda S

2006-01-01

The double-deficit hypothesis of developmental dyslexia proposes that deficits in phonological processing and naming speed represent independent sources of dysfunction in dyslexia. The present article is a review of the evidence for the double-deficit hypothesis, including a discussion of recent findings related to the hypothesis. Studies in this area have been characterized by variability in methodology--how dyslexia is defined and identified, and how dyslexia subtypes are classified. Such variability sets limitations on the extent to which conclusions may be drawn with respect to the double-deficit hypothesis. Furthermore, the literature is complicated by the persistent finding that measures of phonological processing and naming speed are significantly correlated, resulting in a statistical artifact that makes it difficult to disentangle the influence of naming speed from that of phonological processing. Longitudinal and intervention studies of the double-deficit hypothesis are needed to accumulate evidence that investigates a naming speed deficit that is independent of a phonological deficit for readers with dyslexia. The existing evidence does not support a persistent core deficit in naming speed for readers with dyslexia.

Flow and clogging of a sheep herd passing through a bottleneck.

PubMed

Garcimartín, A; Pastor, J M; Ferrer, L M; Ramos, J J; Martín-Gómez, C; Zuriguel, I

2015-02-01

We present an experimental study of a flock passing through a narrow door. Video monitoring of daily routines in a farm has enabled us to collect a sizable amount of data. By measuring the time lapse between the passage of consecutive animals, some features of the flow regime can be assessed. A quantitative definition of clogging is demonstrated based on the passage time statistics. These display broad tails, which can be fitted by power laws with a relatively large exponent. On the other hand, the distribution of burst sizes robustly evidences exponential behavior. Finally, borrowing concepts from granular physics and statistical mechanics, we evaluate the effect of increasing the door size and the performance of an obstacle placed in front of it. The success of these techniques opens new possibilities regarding their eventual extension to the management of human crowds.

Physical and dynamical studies of meteors. Meteor-fragmentation and stream-distribution studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sekanina, Z.; Southworth, R. B.

1975-01-01

Population parameters of 275 streams including 20 additional streams in the synoptic-year sample were found by a computer technique. Some 16 percent of the sample is in these streams. Four meteor streams that have close orbital resemblance to Adonis cannot be positively identified as meteors ejected by Adonis within the last 12000 years. Ceplecha's discrete levels of meteor height are not evident in radar meteors. The spread of meteoroid fragments along their common trajectory was computed for most of the observed radar meteors. There is an unexpected relationship between spread and velocity that perhaps conceals relationships between fragmentation and orbits; a theoretical treatment will be necessary to resolve these relationships. Revised unbiased statistics of synoptic-year orbits are presented, together with parallel statistics for the 1961 to 1965 radar meteor orbits.

Testing for periodicity of extinction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raup, David M.; Sepkoski, J. J., Jr.

1988-01-01

The statistical techniques used by Raup and Sepkoski (1984 and 1986) to identify a 26-Myr periodicity in the biological extinction record for the past 250 Myr are reexamined, responding in detail to the criticisms of Stigler and Wagner (1987). It is argued that evaluation of a much larger set of extinction data using a time scale with 51 sampling intervals supports the finding of periodicity. In a reply by Sigler and Wagner, the preference for a 26-Myr period is attributed to a numerical quirk in the Harland et al. (1982) time scale, in which the subinterval boundaries are not linear interpolations between the stage boundaries but have 25-Myr periodicity. It is stressed that the results of the stringent statistical tests imposed do not disprove periodicity but rather indicate that the evidence and analyses presented so far are inadequate.

A toolbox for determining subdiffusive mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meroz, Yasmine; Sokolov, Igor M.

2015-04-01

Subdiffusive processes have become a field of great interest in the last decades, due to amounting experimental evidence of subdiffusive behavior in complex systems, and especially in biological systems. Different physical scenarios leading to subdiffusion differ in the details of the dynamics. These differences are what allow to theoretically reconstruct the underlying physics from the results of observations, and will be the topic of this review. We review the main statistical analyses available today to distinguish between these scenarios, categorizing them according to the relevant characteristics. We collect the available tools and statistical tests, presenting them within a broader perspective. We also consider possible complications such as the subordination of subdiffusive mechanisms. Due to the advances in single particle tracking experiments in recent years, we focus on the relevant case of where the available experimental data is scant, at the level of single trajectories.

AGN jets under the microscope: A divide? Doctoral Thesis Award Lecture 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karouzos, M.; Britzen, S.; Witzel, A.; Zensus, A. J.; Eckart, A.

2012-06-01

A new paradigm for active galactic jet kinematics has emerged through detailed investigations of BL Lac objects using very long baseline radio interferometry. In this new scheme, most, if not all, jet components appear to remain stationary with respect to the core but show significant non-radial motions. This paper presents results from our kinematic investigation of the jets of a statistically complete sample of radio-loud flat-spectrum active galaxies, focusing on the comparison between the jet kinematic properties of BL Lacs and flat-spectrum radio-quasars. It is shown that there is a statistically significant difference between the kinematics of the two AGN classes, with BL Lacs showing more bent jets, that are wider and show slower movement along the jet axis, compared to flat-spectrum radio-quasars. This is interpreted as evidence for helically structured jets.

Flow and clogging of a sheep herd passing through a bottleneck

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcimartín, A.; Pastor, J. M.; Ferrer, L. M.; Ramos, J. J.; Martín-Gómez, C.; Zuriguel, I.

2015-02-01

We present an experimental study of a flock passing through a narrow door. Video monitoring of daily routines in a farm has enabled us to collect a sizable amount of data. By measuring the time lapse between the passage of consecutive animals, some features of the flow regime can be assessed. A quantitative definition of clogging is demonstrated based on the passage time statistics. These display broad tails, which can be fitted by power laws with a relatively large exponent. On the other hand, the distribution of burst sizes robustly evidences exponential behavior. Finally, borrowing concepts from granular physics and statistical mechanics, we evaluate the effect of increasing the door size and the performance of an obstacle placed in front of it. The success of these techniques opens new possibilities regarding their eventual extension to the management of human crowds.

Machine Learning Approaches for Clinical Psychology and Psychiatry.

PubMed

Dwyer, Dominic B; Falkai, Peter; Koutsouleris, Nikolaos

2018-05-07

Machine learning approaches for clinical psychology and psychiatry explicitly focus on learning statistical functions from multidimensional data sets to make generalizable predictions about individuals. The goal of this review is to provide an accessible understanding of why this approach is important for future practice given its potential to augment decisions associated with the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of people suffering from mental illness using clinical and biological data. To this end, the limitations of current statistical paradigms in mental health research are critiqued, and an introduction is provided to critical machine learning methods used in clinical studies. A selective literature review is then presented aiming to reinforce the usefulness of machine learning methods and provide evidence of their potential. In the context of promising initial results, the current limitations of machine learning approaches are addressed, and considerations for future clinical translation are outlined.

Low-dose ionizing radiation increases the mortality risk of solid cancers in nuclear industry workers: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Qu, Shu-Gen; Gao, Jin; Tang, Bo; Yu, Bo; Shen, Yue-Ping; Tu, Yu

2018-05-01

Low-dose ionizing radiation (LDIR) may increase the mortality of solid cancers in nuclear industry workers, but only few individual cohort studies exist, and the available reports have low statistical power. The aim of the present study was to focus on solid cancer mortality risk from LDIR in the nuclear industry using standard mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95% confidence intervals. A systematic literature search through the PubMed and Embase databases identified 27 studies relevant to this meta-analysis. There was statistical significance for total, solid and lung cancers, with meta-SMR values of 0.88, 0.80, and 0.89, respectively. There was evidence of stochastic effects by IR, but more definitive conclusions require additional analyses using standardized protocols to determine whether LDIR increases the risk of solid cancer-related mortality.

Effects of an Evidence-Based Text on Scepticism, Methodological Reasoning, Values and Juror Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leshowitz, Barry; Okun, Morris

2011-01-01

Research in social cognition laboratories and in simulated legal settings demonstrates that people often do not understand the statistical properties of evidence and are unable to detect scientifically flawed studies. In a mock jury study, we examined the effects of an evidence-based transcript on scepticism towards evidence obtained in flawed…

Five Years Later: A Look at Building and Triangulating Evidence in a School Library

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yutzey, Susan D.

2010-01-01

Participating in an evidence-based practice workshop in 2005 was a transforming experience for the author. She realized that the traditional statistics that she had painstakingly gathered and recorded for her annual report did not provide evidence of actual learning. Evidence acquired through assessment, both formative and summative, provides the…

Statistical evidence for common ancestry: Application to primates.

PubMed

Baum, David A; Ané, Cécile; Larget, Bret; Solís-Lemus, Claudia; Ho, Lam Si Tung; Boone, Peggy; Drummond, Chloe P; Bontrager, Martin; Hunter, Steven J; Saucier, William

2016-06-01

Since Darwin, biologists have come to recognize that the theory of descent from common ancestry (CA) is very well supported by diverse lines of evidence. However, while the qualitative evidence is overwhelming, we also need formal methods for quantifying the evidential support for CA over the alternative hypothesis of separate ancestry (SA). In this article, we explore a diversity of statistical methods using data from the primates. We focus on two alternatives to CA, species SA (the separate origin of each named species) and family SA (the separate origin of each family). We implemented statistical tests based on morphological, molecular, and biogeographic data and developed two new methods: one that tests for phylogenetic autocorrelation while correcting for variation due to confounding ecological traits and a method for examining whether fossil taxa have fewer derived differences than living taxa. We overwhelmingly rejected both species and family SA with infinitesimal P values. We compare these results with those from two companion papers, which also found tremendously strong support for the CA of all primates, and discuss future directions and general philosophical issues that pertain to statistical testing of historical hypotheses such as CA. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Screening for depressive symptoms in adolescents at school: New validity evidences on the short form of the Reynolds Depression Scale.

PubMed

Ortuño-Sierra, Javier; Aritio-Solana, Rebeca; Inchausti, Félix; Chocarro de Luis, Edurne; Lucas Molina, Beatriz; Pérez de Albéniz, Alicia; Fonseca-Pedrero, Eduardo

2017-01-01

The main purpose of the present study was to assess the depressive symptomatology and to gather new validity evidences of the Reynolds Depression Scale-Short form (RADS-SF) in a representative sample of youths. The sample consisted of 2914 adolescents with a mean age of 15.85 years (SD = 1.68). We calculated the descriptive statistics and internal consistency of the RADS-SF scores. Also, confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs) at the item level and successive multigroup CFAs to test measurement invariance, were conducted. Latent mean differences across gender and educational level groups were estimated, and finally, we studied the sources of validity evidences with other external variables. The level of internal consistency of the RADS-SF Total score by means of Ordinal alpha was .89. Results from CFAs showed that the one-dimensional model displayed appropriate goodness of-fit indices with CFI value over .95, and RMSEA value under .08. In addition, the results support the strong measurement invariance of the RADS-SF scores across gender and age. When latent means were compared, statistically significant differences were found by gender and age. Females scored 0.347 over than males in Depression latent variable, whereas older adolescents scored 0.111 higher than the younger group. In addition, the RADS-SF score was associated with the RADS scores. The results suggest that the RADS-SF could be used as an efficient screening test to assess self-reported depressive symptoms in adolescents from the general population.

Spatial correlation in precipitation trends in the Brazilian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buarque, Diogo Costa; Clarke, Robin T.; Mendes, Carlos Andre Bulhoes

2010-06-01

A geostatistical analysis of variables derived from Amazon daily precipitation records (trends in annual precipitation totals, trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, trend in length of dry spell, trend in number of wet days per year) gave results that are consistent with those previously reported. Averaged over the Brazilian Amazon region as a whole, trends in annual maximum precipitations were slightly negative, the trend in the length of dry spell was slightly positive, and the trend in the number of wet days in the year was slightly negative. For trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, spatial correlation between trends was found to extend up to a distance equivalent to at least half a degree of latitude or longitude, with some evidence of anisotropic correlation. Time trends in annual precipitation were found to be spatially correlated up to at least ten degrees of separation, in both W-E and S-N directions. Anisotropic spatial correlation was strongly evident in time trends in length of dry spell with much stronger evidence of spatial correlation in the W-E direction, extending up to at least five degrees of separation, than in the S-N. Because the time trends analyzed are shown to be spatially correlated, it is argued that methods at present widely used to test the statistical significance of climate trends over time lead to erroneous conclusions if spatial correlation is ignored, because records from different sites are assumed to be statistically independent.

Subaru Telescope limits on cosmological variations in the fine-structure constant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Michael T.; Cooksey, Kathy L.

2017-11-01

Previous, large samples of quasar absorption spectra have indicated some evidence for relative variations in the fine-structure constant (Δα/α) across the sky. However, they were likely affected by long-range distortions of the wavelength calibration, so it is important to establish a statistical sample of more reliable results from multiple telescopes. Here we triple the sample of Δα/α measurements from the Subaru Telescope which have been `supercalibrated' to correct for long-range distortions. A blinded analysis of the metallic ions in six intervening absorption systems in two Subaru quasar spectra provides no evidence for α variation, with a weighted mean of Δα/α = 3.0 ± 2.8stat ± 2.0sys parts per million (1σ statistical and systematic uncertainties). The main remaining systematic effects are uncertainties in the long-range distortion corrections, absorption profile models, and errors from redispersing multiple quasar exposures on to a common wavelength grid. The results also assume that terrestrial isotopic abundances prevail in the absorbers; assuming only the dominant terrestrial isotope is present significantly lowers Δα/α, though it is still consistent with zero. Given the location of the two quasars on the sky, our results do not support the evidence for spatial α variation, especially when combined with the 21 other recent measurements which were corrected for, or resistant to, long-range distortions. Our spectra and absorption profile fits are publicly available.

Wall enhancement on high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging may predict an unsteady state of an intracranial saccular aneurysm.

PubMed

Hu, Peng; Yang, Qi; Wang, Dan-Dan; Guan, Shao-Chen; Zhang, Hong-Qi

2016-10-01

The aneurysm wall has been reported to play a critical role in the formation, development, and even rupture of an aneurysm. We used high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (HRMRI) to investigate the aneurysm wall in an effort to identify evidence of inflammation invasion and define its relationship with aneurysm behavior. Patients with intracranial aneurysms who were prospectively evaluated using HRMRI between July 2013 and June 2014 were enrolled in this study. The aneurysm's wall enhancement and evidence of inflammation invasion were determined. In addition, the relationship between aneurysm wall enhancement and aneurysm size and symptoms, including ruptured aneurysms, giant unruputred intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) presenting as mass effect, progressively growing aneurysms, and aneurysms associated with neurological symptoms, was statistically analyzed. Twenty-five patients with 30 aneurysms were available for the current study. Fourteen aneurysms showed wall enhancement, including 6 ruptured and 8 unruptured aneurysms. Evidence of inflammation was identified directly through histological studies and indirectly through intraoperative investigations and clinical courses. The statistical analysis indicated no significant correlation between aneurysm wall enhancement and aneurysm size. However, there was a strong correlation between wall enhancement and aneurysm symptoms, with a kappa value of 0.86 (95 % CI 0.68-1). Aneurysm wall enhancement on HRMRI might be a sign of inflammatory change. Symptomatic aneurysms exhibited wall enhancement on HRMRI. Wall enhancement had a high consistent correlation of symptomatic aneurysms. Therefore, wall enhancement on HRMRI might predict an unsteady state of an intracranial saccular aneurysm.

Unobserved time effects confound the identification of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Auffhammer, Maximilian; Vincent, Jeffrey R

2012-07-24

A recent study by Feng et al. [Feng S, Krueger A, Oppenheimer M (2010) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107:14257-14262] in PNAS reported statistical evidence of a weather-driven causal effect of crop yields on human migration from Mexico to the United States. We show that this conclusion is based on a different statistical model than the one stated in the paper. When we correct for this mistake, there is no evidence of a causal link.

The impact of educational interventions on attitudes of emergency department staff towards patients with substance-related presentations: a quantitative systematic review.

PubMed

Gonzalez, Miriam; Clarke, Diana E; Pereira, Asha; Boyce-Gaudreau, Krystal; Waldman, Celeste; Demczuk, Lisa; Legare, Carol

2017-08-01

Visits to emergency departments for substance use/abuse are common worldwide. However, emergency department health care providers perceive substance-using patients as a challenging group to manage which can lead to negative attitudes. Providing education or experience-based exercises may impact positively on behaviors towards this patient population. Whether staff attitudes are similarly impacted by knowledge acquired through educational interventions remains unknown. To synthesize available evidence on the relationship between new knowledge gained through substance use educational interventions and emergency department health care providers' attitudes towards patients with substance-related presentations. Health care providers working in urban and rural emergency departments of healthcare facilities worldwide providing care to adult patients with substance-related presentations. Quantitative papers examining the impact of substance use educational interventions on health care providers' attitudes towards substance using patients. Experimental and non-experimental study designs. Emergency department staff attitudes towards patients presenting with substance use/abuse. A three-step search strategy was conducted in August 2015 with a search update in March 2017. Studies published since 1995 in English, French or Spanish were considered for inclusion. Two reviewers assessed studies for methodological quality using critical appraisal checklists from the Joanna Briggs Institute Meta-Analysis of Statistics Assessment and Review Instrument (JBI-MAStARI). Reviewers agreed on JBI-MAStARI methodological criteria a study must meet in order to be included in the review (e.g. appropriate use of statistical analysis). The data extraction instrument from JBI-MAStARI was used. As statistical pooling of the data was not possible, the findings are presented in narrative form. A total of 900 articles were identified as relevant for this review. Following abstract and full text screening, four articles were selected and assessed for methodological quality. One article met methodological criteria for inclusion in the review: use of random assignment and comparable study groups and measurement outcomes in a reliable and consistent manner. The included study was a cluster randomized controlled trial. Participants were emergency medicine residents with a mean age of 30 years. The study assessed the impact of a skills-based educational intervention on residents' attitudes, knowledge and practice towards patients with alcohol problems. While knowledge and practice behaviors improved one year following the intervention, there were no significant differences between groups on attitudinal measures. Employing educational interventions to improve the attitudes of emergency department staff towards individuals with drug and alcohol related presentations is not supported by evidence.

Preservation and analysis of footprint evidence within the archaeological record: examples from Valsequillo and Cuatrocienegas, Mexico.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, M.; Huddart, D.; Gonzalez, S.

2008-05-01

Human footprints provide a direct record of human occupation and can be used to make a range of biometric inferences about the individuals which left them. In this paper we describe the application of three-dimensional optical laser scanning in the preservation and analysis both human and animal footprints. Optical laser scanning provides a digital elevation model of a print or surface with a vertical accuracy typically less than + 0.01 mm. Not only does this provide a procedure for recording fragile footprint evidence but allows digital measurements to be made. It is also possible to use the techniques developed for rapid proto-typing to recreate the print as solid models for visualisation. The role of optical laser scanning in the preservation of footprint evidence is explored with specific reference to the controversial footprints of the Valsequillo Basin in Central Mexico which may provide some of the earliest evidence of human colonization of the Americas. More importantly, digital footprint scans provide a basis for the numerical analysis of footprints allowing the tools of geometric morphometrics to be applied. These tools have been widely developed in the fields of biology and physical anthropology and used to explore the anatomical significance of shape. One key question that can be addressed using this approach is to develop a statistical approach to the objective recognition of a human footprint thereby helping to verify their interpretation and archaeological significance. Using footprint data from sites across the World a statistical model for the recognition of human footprints is presented and used to evaluate the controversial footprint site of Valsequillo, (Puebla State) preserved in volcanic ash and those in the Cuatrocienegas Basin, (Coahuila State) preserved in travertine.

Substance use disorders: Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DSM-IV) and International Classification of Diseases, tenth edition (ICD-10).

PubMed

Hasin, Deborah; Hatzenbuehler, Mark L; Keyes, Katherine; Ogburn, Elizabeth

2006-09-01

Two major nomenclatures, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DSM-IV) and International Classification of Diseases, tenth edition (ICD-10), currently define substance use disorders for broad audiences of users with different training, experience and interests. A comparison of these definitions and their implications for DSM-V and ICD-11 has not been available. The background for the dependence concept and abuse, harmful use, withdrawal, substance-induced disorders and remission and other substance-related conditions is reviewed. Reliability evidence is presented, as is validity evidence from approaches including psychometric, genetic and animal studies. The relevance of the DSM-IV and ICD-10 compared to alternative systems (e.g. the Addiction Severity Index) is considered. Reliability and psychometric validity evidence for substance dependence is consistently strong, but more mixed for abuse and harmful use. Findings on the genetics of alcohol disorders support the validity of the dependence concept, while animal studies underscore the centrality of continued use despite negative consequences to the concept of dependence. While few studies on substance-induced disorders have been conducted, those published show good reliability and validity when elements of DSM-IV and ICD-10 are combined. Dependence in DSM-V and ICD-11 should be retained, standardizing both criteria sets and adding a severity measure. The consequences of heavy use should be measured independently of dependence; add cannabis withdrawal if further research supports existing evidence; conduct further studies of the substance-induced psychiatric categories; standardize their criteria across DSM-V and ICD-11; develop a theoretical basis for better remission criteria; consider changing substance 'abuse' to substance 'dysfunction disorder'; and conduct clinician education on the value of the diagnostic criteria.

An evidence-based evaluation on the use of platelet rich plasma in orthopedics – a review of the literature

PubMed Central

Hussain, Nasir; Johal, Herman; Bhandari, Mohit

2017-01-01

Within orthopedics, the use of platelet-rich plasma (PRP) has been rapidly increasing in popularity, however, its true effectiveness has yet to be fully established. Several studies find that injecting PRP to the site of injury does not provide any significant benefit with respect to clinical outcomes; however, many others report the contrary. Due to the conflicting evidence and multiple meta-analyses conducted on the topic, a literature review of high-quality evidence on the use of PRP for common orthopaedic conditions was performed. Thus far, the evidence appears to suggest that PRP may provide some benefit in patients who present with knee osteoarthritis or lateral epicondylitis. On the other hand, evidence appears to be inconsistent or shows a minimal benefit for PRP usage in rotator cuff repair, patellar and Achilles tendinopathies, hamstring injuries, anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) repair, and medial epicondylitis. There is limited confidence in the conclusions from the published meta-analyses due to issues with statistical pooling, and limited subgroup analyses exploring the substantial heterogeneity across studies. Evidence-based clinicians considering the use of PRP in their patients with musculoskeletal injuries should be weary that the literature appears to be inconsistent and thus far, inconclusive. PMID:28990574

A Knowledge Translation Programme to Increase the Utilization of Thoracic Spine Mobilization and Manipulation for Patients with Neck Pain.

PubMed

Karas, Steve; Westerheide, Angela; Daniel, Laura

2016-06-01

There is extensive evidence that mobilization and manipulation of the thoracic spine is associated with improved outcomes in patients with neck pain. However, these evidence-based techniques are not always utilized. Successful knowledge translation programmes are needed to move the best available evidence to clinical practice. The purpose of the present research was to evaluate the effects of a structured knowledge translation programme on the frequency of manual therapy techniques performed by physical therapists on patients with neck pain. Prior to our intervention, we assessed physical therapists' use of thoracic spine intervention for the treatment of neck pain and their knowledge of the evidence. We delivered a multimodal knowledge translation programme and then reassessed their use and knowledge of the interventions. The majority of our physical therapists increased the use of thoracic spine techniques for their patients with neck pain. The increase was greater in those who used the techniques infrequently. Overall knowledge of the evidence appeared unchanged. Knowledge translation programmes are essential in ensuring clinical use of evidence-based practice. Our programme results, although on a small scale and not statistically significant, showed a positive trend toward increased thoracic spine manual therapy use for neck pain. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Glacial meltwater cooling of the Gulf of Mexico - GCM implications for Holocene and present-day climates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Maasch, Kirk A.; Saltzman, Barry

1989-01-01

The NCAR Community Climate Model GCM is presently used to investigate the possible effects on regional and hemispheric climates of reduced SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico, in view of delta-O-18 records and terrestrial evidence for at least two major glacial meltwater discharges after the last glacial maximum. Three numerical experiments have been conducted with imposed gulfwide SST coolings of 3, 6, and 12 C; in all cases, significant reductions arise in the North Atlantic storm-track intensity, together with a strong decrease in transient eddy water vapor transport out of the Gulf of Mexico. Other statistically significant changes occur across the Northern Hemisphere.

How the Mastery Rubric for Statistical Literacy Can Generate Actionable Evidence about Statistical and Quantitative Learning Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tractenberg, Rochelle E.

2017-01-01

Statistical literacy is essential to an informed citizenry; and two emerging trends highlight a growing need for training that achieves this literacy. The first trend is towards "big" data: while automated analyses can exploit massive amounts of data, the interpretation--and possibly more importantly, the replication--of results are…

Why Are People Bad at Detecting Randomness? A Statistical Argument

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Joseph J.; Griffiths, Thomas L.

2013-01-01

Errors in detecting randomness are often explained in terms of biases and misconceptions. We propose and provide evidence for an account that characterizes the contribution of the inherent statistical difficulty of the task. Our account is based on a Bayesian statistical analysis, focusing on the fact that a random process is a special case of…

Teaching Statistics--Despite Its Applications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ridgway, Jim; Nicholson, James; McCusker, Sean

2007-01-01

Evidence-based policy requires sophisticated modelling and reasoning about complex social data. The current UK statistics curricula do not equip tomorrow's citizens to understand such reasoning. We advocate radical curriculum reform, designed to require students to reason from complex data.

Balneotherapy (or spa therapy) for rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Verhagen, Arianne P; Bierma-Zeinstra, Sita M A; Boers, Maarten; Cardoso, Jefferson R; Lambeck, Johan; de Bie, Rob; de Vet, Henrica C W

2015-04-11

No cure for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is known at present, so treatment often focuses on management of symptoms such as pain, stiffness and mobility. Treatment options include pharmacological interventions, physical therapy treatments and balneotherapy. Balneotherapy is defined as bathing in natural mineral or thermal waters (e.g. mineral baths, sulphur baths, Dead Sea baths), using mudpacks or doing both. Despite its popularity, reported scientific evidence for the effectiveness or efficacy of balneotherapy is sparse. This review, which evaluates the effects of balneotherapy in patients with RA, is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 2003 and updated in 2008. To perform a systematic review on the benefits and harms of balneotherapy in patients with RA in terms of pain, improvement, disability, tender joints, swollen joints and adverse events. We searched the Cochrane 'Rehabilitation and Related Therapies' Field Register (to December 2014), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (2014, Issue 1), MEDLIINE (1950 to December 2014), EMBASE (1988 to December 2014), the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) (1982 to December 2014), the Allied and Complementary Medicine Database (AMED) (1985 to December 2014), PsycINFO (1806 to December 2014) and the Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro). We applied no language restrictions; however, studies not reported in English, Dutch, Danish, Swedish, Norwegian, German or French are awaiting assessment. We also searched the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform for ongoing and recently completed trials. Studies were eligible if they were randomised controlled trials (RCTs) consisting of participants with definitive or classical RA as defined by the American Rheumatism Association (ARA) criteria of 1958, the ARA/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria of 1988 or the ACR/European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) criteria of 2010, or by studies using the criteria of Steinbrocker.Balneotherapy had to be the intervention under study, and had to be compared with another intervention or with no intervention.The World Health Organization (WHO) and the International League Against Rheumatism (ILAR) determined in 1992 a core set of eight endpoints in clinical trials concerning patients with RA. We considered pain, improvement, disability, tender joints, swollen joints and adverse events among the main outcome measures. We excluded studies when only laboratory variables were reported as outcome measures. Two review authors independently selected trials, performed data extraction and assessed risk of bias. We resolved disagreements by consensus and, if necessary, by third party adjudication. This review includes two new studies and a total of nine studies involving 579 participants. Unfortunately, most studies showed an unclear risk of bias in most domains. Four out of nine studies did not contribute to the analysis, as they presented no data.One study involving 45 participants with hand RA compared mudpacks versus placebo. We found no statistically significant differences in terms of pain on a 0 to 100-mm visual analogue scale (VAS) (mean difference (MD) 0.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.84 to 1.84), improvement (risk ratio (RR) 0.96, 95% CI 0.54 to 1.70) or number of swollen joints on a scale from 0 to 28 (MD 0.60, 95% CI -0.90 to 2.10) (very low level of evidence). We found a very low level of evidence of reduction in the number of tender joints on a scale from 0 to 28 (MD -4.60, 95% CI -8.72 to -0.48; 16% absolute difference). We reported no physical disability and presented no data on withdrawals due to adverse events or on serious adverse events.Two studies involving 194 participants with RA evaluated the effectiveness of additional radon in carbon dioxide baths. We found no statistically significant differences between groups for all outcomes at three-month follow-up (low to moderate level of evidence). We noted some benefit of additional radon at six months in terms of pain frequency (RR 0.6, 95% CI 0.4 to 0.9; 31% reduction; improvement in one or more points (categories) on a 4-point scale; moderate level of evidence) and 9.6% reduction in pain intensity on a 0 to 100-mm VAS (MD 9.6 mm, 95% CI 1.6 to 17.6; moderate level of evidence). We also observed some benefit in one study including 60 participants in terms of improvement in one or more categories based on a 4-point scale (RR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.7; 30% absolute difference; low level of evidence). Study authors did not report physical disability, tender joints, swollen joints, withdrawals due to adverse events or serious adverse events.One study involving 148 participants with RA compared balneotherapy (seated immersion) versus hydrotherapy (exercises in water), land exercises or relaxation therapy. We found no statistically significant differences in pain on the McGill Questionnaire or in physical disability (very low level of evidence) between balneotherapy and the other interventions. No data on improvement, tender joints, swollen joints, withdrawals due to adverse events or serious adverse events were presented.One study involving 57 participants with RA evaluated the effectiveness of mineral baths (balneotherapy) versus Cyclosporin A. We found no statistically significant differences in pain intensity on a 0 to 100-mm VAS (MD 9.64, 95% CI -1.66 to 20.94; low level of evidence) at 8 weeks (absolute difference 10%). We found some benefit of balneotherapy in overall improvement on a 5-point scale at eight weeks of 54% (RR 2.35, 95% CI 1.44 to 3.83). We found no statistically significant differences (low level of evidence) in the number of swollen joints, but some benefit of Cyclosporin A in the number of tender joints (MD 8.9, 95% CI 3.8 to 14; very low level of evidence). Physical disability, withdrawals due to adverse events and serious adverse events were not reported. Overall evidence is insufficient to show that balneotherapy is more effective than no treatment, that one type of bath is more effective than another or that one type of bath is more effective than mudpacks, exercise or relaxation therapy.

The social construction of "evidence-based'' drug prevention programs: a reanalysis of data from the Drug Abuse Resistance Education (DARE) program.

PubMed

Gorman, Dennis M; Huber, J Charles

2009-08-01

This study explores the possibility that any drug prevention program might be considered ;;evidence-based'' given the use of data analysis procedures that optimize the chance of producing statistically significant results by reanalyzing data from a Drug Abuse Resistance Education (DARE) program evaluation. The analysis produced a number of statistically significant differences between the DARE and control conditions on alcohol and marijuana use measures. Many of these differences occurred at cutoff points on the assessment scales for which post hoc meaningful labels were created. Our results are compared to those from evaluations of programs that appear on evidence-based drug prevention lists.

Normative evidence accumulation in unpredictable environments

PubMed Central

Glaze, Christopher M; Kable, Joseph W; Gold, Joshua I

2015-01-01

In our dynamic world, decisions about noisy stimuli can require temporal accumulation of evidence to identify steady signals, differentiation to detect unpredictable changes in those signals, or both. Normative models can account for learning in these environments but have not yet been applied to faster decision processes. We present a novel, normative formulation of adaptive learning models that forms decisions by acting as a leaky accumulator with non-absorbing bounds. These dynamics, derived for both discrete and continuous cases, depend on the expected rate of change of the statistics of the evidence and balance signal identification and change detection. We found that, for two different tasks, human subjects learned these expectations, albeit imperfectly, then used them to make decisions in accordance with the normative model. The results represent a unified, empirically supported account of decision-making in unpredictable environments that provides new insights into the expectation-driven dynamics of the underlying neural signals. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08825.001 PMID:26322383

Executive functioning and substance use in adolescence: Neurobiological and behavioral perspectives.

PubMed

Kim-Spoon, Jungmeen; Kahn, Rachel E; Lauharatanahirun, Nina; Deater-Deckard, Kirby; Bickel, Warren K; Chiu, Pearl H; King-Casas, Brooks

2017-06-01

The current review is guided by the theoretical perspective that emphasizes the regulating role of executive functioning (Carver et al., 2009) and presents studies that elucidate the ways that executive functioning (inhibition and working memory) explain individual differences in adolescent substance use independently or by regulating the reactive system (reward and punishment sensitivity). Behavioral studies indicate that main effects of executive functioning on adolescent substance use are often nonsignificant or weak in effect sizes. In contrast, emerging evidence suggests consistent and stronger regulating effects of executive functioning over reward and punishment sensitivity. Functional neuroimaging studies reveal significant associations between executive functioning task-related hemodynamic responses and substance use with strong effect sizes. There is also direct evidence from studies testing statistical interactions of the regulating effects of EF-related brain activation, and indirect evidence in studies examining functional connectivity, temporal discounting, and reinforced control. We note key future directions and ways to address limitations in existing work. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Civil war: is it all about disease and xenophobia? A comment on Letendre, Fincher & Thornhill.

PubMed

Hendrix, Cullen S; Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede

2012-02-01

Letendre, Fincher & Thornhill (2010) argue that pathogen intensity provides the ultimate explanation for why some countries are more prone to civil war than others. They argue that the economic and political factors highlighted in previous research on civil war are largely caused by underlying differences in pathogen intensity, and contend that disease proneness increases the risk of civil war through its effects on resource competition and xenophobia. They present empirical evidence that they interpret as consistent with their argument: a statistically significant correlation between pathogen intensity and civil war onset. In this comment, we raise concerns over their interpretation of the empirical evidence and their proposed causal mechanisms. We find that the data provide stronger evidence for the reverse causal relationship, namely that civil war causes disease to become more prevalent. This finding is consistent with the literatures on the public health effects of civil war as well as research on state capacity and public health. © 2011 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2011 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Evidence for solar flare directivity from the Gamma-Ray Spectrometer aboard the SMM satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vestrand, W. T.; Forrest, D. J.; Chupp, E. L.; Rieger, E.; Share, G. H.

1986-01-01

A number of observations from the SMM Gamma-Ray Spectrometer are presented that altogether strongly indicate that the high-energy emission from flares is anisotropic. They are: (1) the fraction of events detected at energies above 300 keV near the limb is significantly higher than is expected for isotropically emitting flares; (2) there is a statistically significant center-to-limb variation in the 300-1000-keV spectra of flares; and (3) nearly all of the events detected at above 10 MeV are located near the limb.

Direct evidence for a dual process model of deductive inference.

PubMed

Markovits, Henry; Brunet, Marie-Laurence; Thompson, Valerie; Brisson, Janie

2013-07-01

In 2 experiments, we tested a strong version of a dual process theory of conditional inference (cf. Verschueren et al., 2005a, 2005b) that assumes that most reasoners have 2 strategies available, the choice of which is determined by situational variables, cognitive capacity, and metacognitive control. The statistical strategy evaluates inferences probabilistically, accepting those with high conditional probability. The counterexample strategy rejects inferences when a counterexample shows the inference to be invalid. To discriminate strategy use, we presented reasoners with conditional statements (if p, then q) and explicit statistical information about the relative frequency of the probability of p/q (50% vs. 90%). A statistical strategy would accept the more probable inferences more frequently, whereas the counterexample one would reject both. In Experiment 1, reasoners under time pressure used the statistical strategy more, but switched to the counterexample strategy when time constraints were removed; the former took less time than the latter. These data are consistent with the hypothesis that the statistical strategy is the default heuristic. Under a free-time condition, reasoners preferred the counterexample strategy and kept it when put under time pressure. Thus, it is not simply a lack of capacity that produces a statistical strategy; instead, it seems that time pressure disrupts the ability to make good metacognitive choices. In line with this conclusion, in a 2nd experiment, we measured reasoners' confidence in their performance; those under time pressure were less confident in the statistical than the counterexample strategy and more likely to switch strategies under free-time conditions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Triangulating Evidence to Investigate the Validity of Measures: Evidence from Discussion during Instruction, Cognitive Interviews, and Written Assessments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burmester, Kristen O'Rourke

2011-01-01

Classrooms are a primary site of evidence about learning. Yet classroom proceedings often occur behind closed doors and hence evidence of student learning is observable only to the classroom teacher. The informal and undocumented nature of this information means that it is rarely included in statistical models or quantifiable analyses. This…

Will the US economy recover in 2010? A minimal spanning tree study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yiting; Lee, Gladys Hui Ting; Wong, Jian Cheng; Kok, Jun Liang; Prusty, Manamohan; Cheong, Siew Ann

2011-06-01

We calculated the cross correlations between the half-hourly times series of the ten Dow Jones US economic sectors over the period February 2000 to August 2008, the two-year intervals 2002-2003, 2004-2005, 2008-2009, and also over 11 segments within the present financial crisis, to construct minimal spanning trees (MSTs) of the US economy at the sector level. In all MSTs, a core-fringe structure is found, with consumer goods, consumer services, and the industrials consistently making up the core, and basic materials, oil & gas, healthcare, telecommunications, and utilities residing predominantly on the fringe. More importantly, we find that the MSTs can be classified into two distinct, statistically robust, topologies: (i) star-like, with the industrials at the center, associated with low-volatility economic growth; and (ii) chain-like, associated with high-volatility economic crisis. Finally, we present statistical evidence, based on the emergence of a star-like MST in Sep 2009, and the MST staying robustly star-like throughout the Greek Debt Crisis, that the US economy is on track to a recovery.

A unifying perspective on personality pathology across the life span: Developmental considerations for the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders

PubMed Central

TACKETT, JENNIFER L.; BALSIS, STEVE; OLTMANNS, THOMAS F.; KRUEGER, ROBERT F.

2010-01-01

Proposed changes in the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-V) include replacing current personality disorder (PD) categories on Axis II with a taxonomy of dimensional maladaptive personality traits. Most of the work on dimensional models of personality pathology, and on personality disorders per se, has been conducted on young and middle-aged adult populations. Numerous questions remain regarding the applicability and limitations of applying various PD models to early and later life. In the present paper, we provide an overview of such dimensional models and review current proposals for conceptualizing PDs in DSM-V. Next, we extensively review existing evidence on the development, measurement, and manifestation of personality pathology in early and later life focusing on those issues deemed most relevant for informing DSM-V. Finally, we present overall conclusions regarding the need to incorporate developmental issues in conceptualizing PDs in DSM-V and highlight the advantages of a dimensional model in unifying PD perspectives across the life span. PMID:19583880

Robot Training With Vector Fields Based on Stroke Survivors' Individual Movement Statistics.

PubMed

Wright, Zachary A; Lazzaro, Emily; Thielbar, Kelly O; Patton, James L; Huang, Felix C

2018-02-01

The wide variation in upper extremity motor impairments among stroke survivors necessitates more intelligent methods of customized therapy. However, current strategies for characterizing individual motor impairments are limited by the use of traditional clinical assessments (e.g., Fugl-Meyer) and simple engineering metrics (e.g., goal-directed performance). Our overall approach is to statistically identify the range of volitional movement capabilities, and then apply a robot-applied force vector field intervention that encourages under-expressed movements. We investigated whether explorative training with such customized force fields would improve stroke survivors' (n = 11) movement patterns in comparison to a control group that trained without forces (n = 11). Force and control groups increased Fugl-Meyer UE scores (average of 1.0 and 1.1, respectively), which is not considered clinically meaningful. Interestingly, participants from both groups demonstrated dramatic increases in their range of velocity during exploration following only six days of training (average increase of 166.4% and 153.7% for the Force and Control group, respectively). While both groups showed evidence of improvement, we also found evidence that customized forces affected learning in a systematic way. When customized forces were active, we observed broader distributions of velocity that were not present in the controls. Second, we found that these changes led to specific changes in unassisted motion. In addition, while the shape of movement distributions changed significantly for both groups, detailed analysis of the velocity distributions revealed that customized forces promoted a greater proportion of favorable changes. Taken together, these results provide encouraging evidence that patient-specific force fields based on individuals' movement statistics can be used to create new movement patterns and shape them in a customized manner. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to directly link engineering assessments of stroke survivors' exploration movement behaviors to the design of customized robot therapy.

Hybrid Evidence Theory-based Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis method for mid-frequency analysis of built-up systems with epistemic uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Shengwen; Yu, Dejie; Yin, Hui; Lü, Hui; Xia, Baizhan

2017-09-01

Considering the epistemic uncertainties within the hybrid Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis (FE/SEA) model when it is used for the response analysis of built-up systems in the mid-frequency range, the hybrid Evidence Theory-based Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis (ETFE/SEA) model is established by introducing the evidence theory. Based on the hybrid ETFE/SEA model and the sub-interval perturbation technique, the hybrid Sub-interval Perturbation and Evidence Theory-based Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis (SIP-ETFE/SEA) approach is proposed. In the hybrid ETFE/SEA model, the uncertainty in the SEA subsystem is modeled by a non-parametric ensemble, while the uncertainty in the FE subsystem is described by the focal element and basic probability assignment (BPA), and dealt with evidence theory. Within the hybrid SIP-ETFE/SEA approach, the mid-frequency response of interest, such as the ensemble average of the energy response and the cross-spectrum response, is calculated analytically by using the conventional hybrid FE/SEA method. Inspired by the probability theory, the intervals of the mean value, variance and cumulative distribution are used to describe the distribution characteristics of mid-frequency responses of built-up systems with epistemic uncertainties. In order to alleviate the computational burdens for the extreme value analysis, the sub-interval perturbation technique based on the first-order Taylor series expansion is used in ETFE/SEA model to acquire the lower and upper bounds of the mid-frequency responses over each focal element. Three numerical examples are given to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Validation of surrogate endpoints in advanced solid tumors: systematic review of statistical methods, results, and implications for policy makers.

PubMed

Ciani, Oriana; Davis, Sarah; Tappenden, Paul; Garside, Ruth; Stein, Ken; Cantrell, Anna; Saad, Everardo D; Buyse, Marc; Taylor, Rod S

2014-07-01

Licensing of, and coverage decisions on, new therapies should rely on evidence from patient-relevant endpoints such as overall survival (OS). Nevertheless, evidence from surrogate endpoints may also be useful, as it may not only expedite the regulatory approval of new therapies but also inform coverage decisions. It is, therefore, essential that candidate surrogate endpoints be properly validated. However, there is no consensus on statistical methods for such validation and on how the evidence thus derived should be applied by policy makers. We review current statistical approaches to surrogate-endpoint validation based on meta-analysis in various advanced-tumor settings. We assessed the suitability of two surrogates (progression-free survival [PFS] and time-to-progression [TTP]) using three current validation frameworks: Elston and Taylor's framework, the German Institute of Quality and Efficiency in Health Care's (IQWiG) framework and the Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema (BSES3). A wide variety of statistical methods have been used to assess surrogacy. The strength of the association between the two surrogates and OS was generally low. The level of evidence (observation-level versus treatment-level) available varied considerably by cancer type, by evaluation tools and was not always consistent even within one specific cancer type. Not in all solid tumors the treatment-level association between PFS or TTP and OS has been investigated. According to IQWiG's framework, only PFS achieved acceptable evidence of surrogacy in metastatic colorectal and ovarian cancer treated with cytotoxic agents. Our study emphasizes the challenges of surrogate-endpoint validation and the importance of building consensus on the development of evaluation frameworks.

[Legal medicine specialists within the framework of acute care : Analysis of legal medicine consultations in relation to the victims' statistics of the state office of criminal investigation in Saxony-Anhalt].

PubMed

Pliske, G; Heide, S; Lucas, B; Brandstädter, K; Walcher, F; Kropf, S; Lessig, R; Piatek, S

2018-05-01

In acute medical care, there are patients who have been injured by the influence of others. The aim of this study was to analyze all cases which were presented to the Institute for Legal Medicine of the University Halle (Saale). The cases where analyzed in relation to the victims' statistics of the state office of criminal investigation in Saxony-Anhalt. The consultations of the Institute for Legal Medicine Halle-Wittenberg for 2012-2015 were evaluated with regard to the age and gender distribution, the reasons for the consultation and time until the request for consultations. These cases were statistically compared to the victims' statistics of the state office of criminal investigation in Saxony-Anhalt 2014-2015. A total of 536 cases (55.6% male and 44.4% female patients) were evaluated. In all, 62.1% of patients were under 18 years of age; 43.5% of all consultations were requested by pediatric (surgery) clinics. The most common reasons for consultation were sexual child abuse or violence against children (50.7%). Compared to the victims' statistics, significantly more children were examined by legal medicine specialists than could have been expected (p < 0.001). In adult patients, the most common causes for consultation were acts of violence (20.4%) and domestic violence (10.1%). Among adults, significantly more women and fewer men were presented than expected (p = 0.001). There were only a small number of consultations of legal medicine specialists in relation to the victims' statistics. Most of them were children and women. The temporal latency between the act of violence and the consultations was one day and more. The latency and the renunciation of the consultation of the legal medicine specialists can lead to loss of evidence.

Rogue waves in terms of multi-point statistics and nonequilibrium thermodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadjihosseini, Ali; Lind, Pedro; Mori, Nobuhito; Hoffmann, Norbert P.; Peinke, Joachim

2017-04-01

Ocean waves, which lead to rogue waves, are investigated on the background of complex systems. In contrast to deterministic approaches based on the nonlinear Schroedinger equation or focusing effects, we analyze this system in terms of a noisy stochastic system. In particular we present a statistical method that maps the complexity of multi-point data into the statistics of hierarchically ordered height increments for different time scales. We show that the stochastic cascade process with Markov properties is governed by a Fokker-Planck equation. Conditional probabilities as well as the Fokker-Planck equation itself can be estimated directly from the available observational data. This stochastic description enables us to show several new aspects of wave states. Surrogate data sets can in turn be generated allowing to work out different statistical features of the complex sea state in general and extreme rogue wave events in particular. The results also open up new perspectives for forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme rogue wave events, and even for forecasting the occurrence of individual rogue waves based on precursory dynamics. As a new outlook the ocean wave states will be considered in terms of nonequilibrium thermodynamics, for which the entropy production of different wave heights will be considered. We show evidence that rogue waves are characterized by negative entropy production. The statistics of the entropy production can be used to distinguish different wave states.

Large-angle correlations in the cosmic microwave background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efstathiou, George; Ma, Yin-Zhe; Hanson, Duncan

2010-10-01

It has been argued recently by Copi et al. 2009 that the lack of large angular correlations of the CMB temperature field provides strong evidence against the standard, statistically isotropic, inflationary Lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmology. We compare various estimators of the temperature correlation function showing how they depend on assumptions of statistical isotropy and how they perform on the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) 5-yr Internal Linear Combination (ILC) maps with and without a sky cut. We show that the low multipole harmonics that determine the large-scale features of the temperature correlation function can be reconstructed accurately from the data that lie outside the sky cuts. The reconstructions are only weakly dependent on the assumed statistical properties of the temperature field. The temperature correlation functions computed from these reconstructions are in good agreement with those computed from the ILC map over the whole sky. We conclude that the large-scale angular correlation function for our realization of the sky is well determined. A Bayesian analysis of the large-scale correlations is presented, which shows that the data cannot exclude the standard ΛCDM model. We discuss the differences between our results and those of Copi et al. Either there exists a violation of statistical isotropy as claimed by Copi et al., or these authors have overestimated the significance of the discrepancy because of a posteriori choices of estimator, statistic and sky cut.

Objectively combining AR5 instrumental period and paleoclimate climate sensitivity evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Nicholas; Grünwald, Peter

2018-03-01

Combining instrumental period evidence regarding equilibrium climate sensitivity with largely independent paleoclimate proxy evidence should enable a more constrained sensitivity estimate to be obtained. Previous, subjective Bayesian approaches involved selection of a prior probability distribution reflecting the investigators' beliefs about climate sensitivity. Here a recently developed approach employing two different statistical methods—objective Bayesian and frequentist likelihood-ratio—is used to combine instrumental period and paleoclimate evidence based on data presented and assessments made in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Probabilistic estimates from each source of evidence are represented by posterior probability density functions (PDFs) of physically-appropriate form that can be uniquely factored into a likelihood function and a noninformative prior distribution. The three-parameter form is shown accurately to fit a wide range of estimated climate sensitivity PDFs. The likelihood functions relating to the probabilistic estimates from the two sources are multiplicatively combined and a prior is derived that is noninformative for inference from the combined evidence. A posterior PDF that incorporates the evidence from both sources is produced using a single-step approach, which avoids the order-dependency that would arise if Bayesian updating were used. Results are compared with an alternative approach using the frequentist signed root likelihood ratio method. Results from these two methods are effectively identical, and provide a 5-95% range for climate sensitivity of 1.1-4.05 K (median 1.87 K).

EVALUATION OF THE EXTRACELLULAR MATRIX OF INJURED SUPRASPINATUS IN RATS

PubMed Central

Almeida, Luiz Henrique Oliveira; Ikemoto, Roberto; Mader, Ana Maria; Pinhal, Maria Aparecida Silva; Munhoz, Bruna; Murachovsky, Joel

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To evaluate the evolution of injuries of the supraspinatus muscle by immunohistochemistry (IHC) and anatomopathological analysis in animal model (Wistar rats). Methods: Twenty-five Wistar rats were submitted to complete injury of the supraspinatus tendon, then subsequently sacrificed in groups of five animals at the following periods: immediately after the injury, 24h after the injury, 48h after, 30 days after and three months after the injury. All groups underwent histological and IHC analysis. Results: Regarding vascular proliferation and inflammatory infiltrate, we found a statistically significant difference between groups 1(control group) and 2 (24h after injury). IHC analysis showed that expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) showed a statistically significant difference between groups 1 and 2, and collagen type 1 (Col-1) evaluation presented a statistically significant difference between groups 1 and 4. Conclusion: We observed changes in the extracellular matrix components compatible with remodeling and healing. Remodeling is more intense 24h after injury. However, VEGF and Col-1 are substantially increased at 24h and 30 days after the injury, respectively. Level of Evidence I, Experimental Study. PMID:26997907

From evidence to understanding: a commentary on Fisher (1922) 'On the mathematical foundations of theoretical statistics'.

PubMed

Hand, David J

2015-04-13

The nature of statistics has changed over time. It was originally concerned with descriptive 'matters of state'--with summarizing population numbers, economic strength and social conditions. But during the course of the twentieth century its aim broadened to include inference--how to use data to shed light on underlying mechanisms, about what might happen in the future, about what would happen if certain actions were taken. Central to this development was Ronald Fisher. Over the course of his life he was responsible for many of the major conceptual advances in statistics. This is particularly illustrated by his 1922 paper, in which he introduced many of the concepts which remain fundamental to our understanding of how to extract meaning from data, right to the present day. It is no exaggeration to say that Fisher's work, as illustrated by the ideas he described and developed in this paper, underlies all modern science, and much more besides. This commentary was written to celebrate the 350th anniversary of the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society.

Thermal advection and stratification effects on surface winds and the low level meridional mass transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levy, Gad; Tiu, Felice S.

1990-01-01

Statistical tests are performed on the Seasat scatterometer observations to examine if and to what degree thermal advection and stratification effects manifest themselves in these remotely sensed measurements of mean wind and wind stress over the ocean. On the basis of a two layer baroclinic boundary layer model which is presented, it is shown that the thermal advection and stratification of the entire boundary layer as well as the geostrophic forcing influence the modeled near surface wind and wind stress profiles. Evidence of diurnal variation in the stratification under barotropic conditions is found in the data, with the daytime marine boundary layer being more convective than its nighttime counterpart. The temporal and spacial sampling pattern of the satellite makes it impossible to recover the full diurnal cycle, however. The observed effects of the thermal advection are shown to be statistically significant during the day (and presumed more convective) hours, causing a systematic increase in the poleward transport of mass and heat. The statistical results are in a qualitative agreement with the model simulations and cannot be reproduced in randomized control tests.

Lagrangian single-particle turbulent statistics through the Hilbert-Huang transform.

PubMed

Huang, Yongxiang; Biferale, Luca; Calzavarini, Enrico; Sun, Chao; Toschi, Federico

2013-04-01

The Hilbert-Huang transform is applied to analyze single-particle Lagrangian velocity data from numerical simulations of hydrodynamic turbulence. The velocity trajectory is described in terms of a set of intrinsic mode functions C(i)(t) and of their instantaneous frequency ω(i)(t). On the basis of this decomposition we define the ω-conditioned statistical moments of the C(i) modes, named q-order Hilbert spectra (HS). We show that such quantities have enhanced scaling properties as compared to traditional Fourier transform- or correlation-based (structure functions) statistical indicators, thus providing better insights into the turbulent energy transfer process. We present clear empirical evidence that the energylike quantity, i.e., the second-order HS, displays a linear scaling in time in the inertial range, as expected from a dimensional analysis. We also measure high-order moment scaling exponents in a direct way, without resorting to the extended self-similarity procedure. This leads to an estimate of the Lagrangian structure function exponents which are consistent with the multifractal prediction in the Lagrangian frame as proposed by Biferale et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 93, 064502 (2004)].

When Statistical Literacy Really Matters: Understanding Published Information about the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in South Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hobden, Sally

2014-01-01

Information on the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Southern Africa is often interpreted through a veil of secrecy and shame and, I argue, with flawed understanding of basic statistics. This research determined the levels of statistical literacy evident in 316 future Mathematical Literacy teachers' explanations of the median in the context of HIV/AIDS…

Increasing Confidence in a Statistics Course: Assessing Students' Beliefs and Using the Data to Design Curriculum with Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huchting, Karen

2013-01-01

Students were involved in the curriculum design of a statistics course. They completed a pre-assessment of their confidence and skills using quantitative methods and statistics. Scores were aggregated, and anonymous data were shown on the first night of class. Using these data, the course was designed, demonstrating evidence-based instructional…

The Storm of the Century! Promoting Student Enthusiasm for Applied Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fawcett, Lee; Newman, Keith

2017-01-01

This article describes a hands-on activity that has been used with students aged 12-18 years to promote the study of Statistics. We believe there is evidence to suggest an increase in student enthusiasm for Statistics at school, within the Mathematics curriculum, but also within other subjects such as Geography. We also believe that the use of…

Electrophysiological evidence of heterogeneity in visual statistical learning in young children with ASD.

PubMed

Jeste, Shafali S; Kirkham, Natasha; Senturk, Damla; Hasenstab, Kyle; Sugar, Catherine; Kupelian, Chloe; Baker, Elizabeth; Sanders, Andrew J; Shimizu, Christina; Norona, Amanda; Paparella, Tanya; Freeman, Stephanny F N; Johnson, Scott P

2015-01-01

Statistical learning is characterized by detection of regularities in one's environment without an awareness or intention to learn, and it may play a critical role in language and social behavior. Accordingly, in this study we investigated the electrophysiological correlates of visual statistical learning in young children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) using an event-related potential shape learning paradigm, and we examined the relation between visual statistical learning and cognitive function. Compared to typically developing (TD) controls, the ASD group as a whole showed reduced evidence of learning as defined by N1 (early visual discrimination) and P300 (attention to novelty) components. Upon further analysis, in the ASD group there was a positive correlation between N1 amplitude difference and non-verbal IQ, and a positive correlation between P300 amplitude difference and adaptive social function. Children with ASD and a high non-verbal IQ and high adaptive social function demonstrated a distinctive pattern of learning. This is the first study to identify electrophysiological markers of visual statistical learning in children with ASD. Through this work we have demonstrated heterogeneity in statistical learning in ASD that maps onto non-verbal cognition and adaptive social function. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Marigold (Calendula officinalis L.): an evidence-based systematic review by the Natural Standard Research Collaboration.

PubMed

Basch, Ethan; Bent, Steve; Foppa, Ivo; Haskmi, Sadaf; Kroll, David; Mele, Michelle; Szapary, Philippe; Ulbricht, Catherine; Vora, Mamta; Yong, Sophanna

2006-01-01

An evidence-based systematic review including written and statistical analysis of scientific literature, expert opinion, folkloric precedent, history, pharmacology, kinetics/dynamics, interactions, adverse effects, toxicology and dosing.

An evidence-based systematic review of saffron (Crocus sativus) by the Natural Standard Research Collaboration.

PubMed

Ulbricht, Catherine; Conquer, Julie; Costa, Dawn; Hollands, Whitney; Iannuzzi, Carmen; Isaac, Richard; Jordan, Joseph K; Ledesma, Natalie; Ostroff, Cathy; Serrano, Jill M Grimes; Shaffer, Michael D; Varghese, Minney

2011-03-01

An evidence-based systematic review including written and statistical analysis of scientific literature, expert opinion, folkloric precedent, history, pharmacology, kinetics/dynamics, interactions, adverse effects, toxicology, and dosing.

Computing Pathways for Urban Decarbonization.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremades, R.; Sommer, P.

2016-12-01

Urban areas emit roughly three quarters of global carbon emissions. Cities are crucial elements for a decarbonized society. Urban expansion and related transportation needs lead to increased energy use, and to carbon-intensive lock-ins that create barriers for climate change mitigation globally. The authors present the Integrated Urban Complexity (IUC) model, based on self-organizing Cellular Automata (CA), and use it to produce a new kind of spatially explicit Transformation Pathways for Urban Decarbonization (TPUD). IUC is based on statistical evidence relating the energy needed for transportation with the spatial distribution of population, specifically IUC incorporates variables from complexity science related to urban form, like the slope of the rank-size rule or spatial entropy, which brings IUC a step beyond existing models. The CA starts its evolution with real-world urban land use and population distribution data from the Global Human Settlement Layer. Thus, the IUC model runs over existing urban settlements, transforming the spatial distribution of population so the energy consumption for transportation is minimized. The statistical evidence that governs the evolution of the CA departs from the database of the International Association of Public Transport. A selected case is presented using Stuttgart (Germany) as an example. The results show how IUC varies urban density in those places where it improves the performance of crucial parameters related to urban form, producing a TPUD that shows where the spatial distribution of population should be modified with a degree of detail of 250 meters of cell size. The TPUD shows how the urban complex system evolves over time to minimize energy consumption for transportation. The resulting dynamics or urban decarbonization show decreased energy per capita, although total energy increases for increasing population. The results provide innovative insights: by checking current urban planning against a TPUD, urban planners could understand where existing plans contradict the Agenda 2030, primarily the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Climate Action (SDG 13), and Sustainable Cities and Communities (SDG 11). For the first time, evidence-based transformation pathways are produced to decarbonize cities.

Systematic review of learning curves for minimally invasive abdominal surgery: a review of the methodology of data collection, depiction of outcomes, and statistical analysis.

PubMed

Harrysson, Iliana J; Cook, Jonathan; Sirimanna, Pramudith; Feldman, Liane S; Darzi, Ara; Aggarwal, Rajesh

2014-07-01

To determine how minimally invasive surgical learning curves are assessed and define an ideal framework for this assessment. Learning curves have implications for training and adoption of new procedures and devices. In 2000, a review of the learning curve literature was done by Ramsay et al and it called for improved reporting and statistical evaluation of learning curves. Since then, a body of literature is emerging on learning curves but the presentation and analysis vary. A systematic search was performed of MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, ERIC, and the Cochrane Library from 1985 to August 2012. The inclusion criteria are minimally invasive abdominal surgery formally analyzing the learning curve and English language. 592 (11.1%) of the identified studies met the selection criteria. Time is the most commonly used proxy for the learning curve (508, 86%). Intraoperative outcomes were used in 316 (53%) of the articles, postoperative outcomes in 306 (52%), technical skills in 102 (17%), and patient-oriented outcomes in 38 (6%) articles. Over time, there was evidence of an increase in the relative amount of laparoscopic and robotic studies (P < 0.001) without statistical evidence of a change in the complexity of analysis (P = 0.121). Assessment of learning curves is needed to inform surgical training and evaluate new clinical procedures. An ideal analysis would account for the degree of complexity of individual cases and the inherent differences between surgeons. There is no single proxy that best represents the success of surgery, and hence multiple outcomes should be collected.

The Plasma Sheet as Natural Symmetry Plane for Dipolarization Fronts in the Earth's Magnetotail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frühauff, D.; Glassmeier, K.-H.

2017-11-01

In this work, observations of multispacecraft mission Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms are used for statistical investigation of dipolarization fronts in the near-Earth plasma sheet of the magnetotail. Using very stringent criteria, 460 events are detected in almost 10 years of mission data. Minimum variance analysis is used to determine the normal directions of the phase fronts, providing evidence for the existence of a natural symmetry of these phenomena, given by the neutral sheet of the magnetotail. This finding enables the definition of a local coordinate system based on the Tsyganenko model, reflecting the intrinsic orientation of the neutral sheet and, therefore, the dipolarization fronts. In this way, the comparison of events with very different background conditions is improved. Through this study, the statistical results of Liu, Angelopoulos, Runov, et al. (2013) are both confirmed and extended. In a case study, the knowledge of this plane of symmetry helps to explain the concave curvature of dipolarization fronts in the XZ plane through phase propagation speeds of magnetoacoustic waves. A second case study is presented to determine the central current system of a passing dipolarization front through a constellation of three spacecraft. With this information, a statistical analysis of spacecraft observations above and below the neutral sheet is used to provide further evidence for the neutral sheet as the symmetry plane and the central current system. Furthermore, it is shown that the signatures of dipolarization fronts are under certain conditions closely related to that of flux ropes, indicating a possible relationship between these two transient phenomena.

Phenotypic characterization of X-linked retinoschisis: Clinical, electroretinography, and optical coherence tomography variables

PubMed Central

Neriyanuri, Srividya; Dhandayuthapani, Sudha; Arunachalam, Jayamuruga Pandian; Raman, Rajiv

2016-01-01

Aims: To study the phenotypic characteristics of X-linked retinoschisis (XLRS) and report the clinical, electroretinogram (ERG), and optical coherence tomography (OCT) variables in Indian eyes. Design: A retrospective study. Materials and Methods: Medical records of 21 patients with retinoschisis who were genetically confirmed to have RS1 mutation were reviewed. The phenotype characterization included the age of onset, best-corrected visual acuity, refractive error, fundus findings, OCT, and ERG. Statistical Analysis Used: Data from both the eyes were used for analysis. A P < 0.05 was set as statistical significance. Data were not normally distributed (P < 0.05, Shapiro wilk); hence, nonparametric tests were used for statistical analysis. Results: All were males whose mean age of presentation was 9 years. Visual acuity was moderately impaired (median 0.6 logMAR, interquartile range: 0.47, 1) in these eyes with a hyperopic refractive error of median +1.75 Ds (interquartile range: +0.50 Ds, +4.25 Ds). About 54.7% of the eyes had both foveal and peripheral schisis, isolated foveal schisis was seen in 28.5% of the eyes, and schisis with retinal detachment was seen in 16.6% of the eyes. The inner nuclear layer was found to be commonly involved in the schisis, followed by outer nuclear and plexiform layers as evident on OCT. On ERG, a- and b-wave amplitudes were significantly reduced in eyes with foveal and peripheral schisis when compared to the eyes with only foveal schisis (P < 0.05). Conclusions: XLRS has phenotypic heterogeneity as evident on OCT, ERG, and clinical findings. PMID:27609164

Evaluation of Evidence of Statistical Support and Corroboration of Subgroup Claims in Randomized Clinical Trials.

PubMed

Wallach, Joshua D; Sullivan, Patrick G; Trepanowski, John F; Sainani, Kristin L; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Ioannidis, John P A

2017-04-01

Many published randomized clinical trials (RCTs) make claims for subgroup differences. To evaluate how often subgroup claims reported in the abstracts of RCTs are actually supported by statistical evidence (P < .05 from an interaction test) and corroborated by subsequent RCTs and meta-analyses. This meta-epidemiological survey examines data sets of trials with at least 1 subgroup claim, including Subgroup Analysis of Trials Is Rarely Easy (SATIRE) articles and Discontinuation of Randomized Trials (DISCO) articles. We used Scopus (updated July 2016) to search for English-language articles citing each of the eligible index articles with at least 1 subgroup finding in the abstract. Articles with a subgroup claim in the abstract with or without evidence of statistical heterogeneity (P < .05 from an interaction test) in the text and articles attempting to corroborate the subgroup findings. Study characteristics of trials with at least 1 subgroup claim in the abstract were recorded. Two reviewers extracted the data necessary to calculate subgroup-level effect sizes, standard errors, and the P values for interaction. For individual RCTs and meta-analyses that attempted to corroborate the subgroup findings from the index articles, trial characteristics were extracted. Cochran Q test was used to reevaluate heterogeneity with the data from all available trials. The number of subgroup claims in the abstracts of RCTs, the number of subgroup claims in the abstracts of RCTs with statistical support (subgroup findings), and the number of subgroup findings corroborated by subsequent RCTs and meta-analyses. Sixty-four eligible RCTs made a total of 117 subgroup claims in their abstracts. Of these 117 claims, only 46 (39.3%) in 33 articles had evidence of statistically significant heterogeneity from a test for interaction. In addition, out of these 46 subgroup findings, only 16 (34.8%) ensured balance between randomization groups within the subgroups (eg, through stratified randomization), 13 (28.3%) entailed a prespecified subgroup analysis, and 1 (2.2%) was adjusted for multiple testing. Only 5 (10.9%) of the 46 subgroup findings had at least 1 subsequent pure corroboration attempt by a meta-analysis or an RCT. In all 5 cases, the corroboration attempts found no evidence of a statistically significant subgroup effect. In addition, all effect sizes from meta-analyses were attenuated toward the null. A minority of subgroup claims made in the abstracts of RCTs are supported by their own data (ie, a significant interaction effect). For those that have statistical support (P < .05 from an interaction test), most fail to meet other best practices for subgroup tests, including prespecification, stratified randomization, and adjustment for multiple testing. Attempts to corroborate statistically significant subgroup differences are rare; when done, the initially observed subgroup differences are not reproduced.

A Geostatistical Scaling Approach for the Generation of Non Gaussian Random Variables and Increments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guadagnini, Alberto; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Riva, Monica; Panzeri, Marco

2016-04-01

We address manifestations of non-Gaussian statistical scaling displayed by many variables, Y, and their (spatial or temporal) increments. Evidence of such behavior includes symmetry of increment distributions at all separation distances (or lags) with sharp peaks and heavy tails which tend to decay asymptotically as lag increases. Variables reported to exhibit such distributions include quantities of direct relevance to hydrogeological sciences, e.g. porosity, log permeability, electrical resistivity, soil and sediment texture, sediment transport rate, rainfall, measured and simulated turbulent fluid velocity, and other. No model known to us captures all of the documented statistical scaling behaviors in a unique and consistent manner. We recently proposed a generalized sub-Gaussian model (GSG) which reconciles within a unique theoretical framework the probability distributions of a target variable and its increments. We presented an algorithm to generate unconditional random realizations of statistically isotropic or anisotropic GSG functions and illustrated it in two dimensions. In this context, we demonstrated the feasibility of estimating all key parameters of a GSG model underlying a single realization of Y by analyzing jointly spatial moments of Y data and corresponding increments. Here, we extend our GSG model to account for noisy measurements of Y at a discrete set of points in space (or time), present an algorithm to generate conditional realizations of corresponding isotropic or anisotropic random field, and explore them on one- and two-dimensional synthetic test cases.

Reexamining Psychokinesis: Comment on Bosch, Steinkamp, and Boller (2006)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radin, Dean; Nelson, Roger; Dobyns, York; Houtkooper, Joop

2006-01-01

H. Bosch, F. Steinkamp, and E. Boller's (see record 2006-08436-001) review of the evidence for psychokinesis confirms many of the authors' earlier findings. The authors agree with Bosch et al. that existing studies provide statistical evidence for psychokinesis, that the evidence is generally of high methodological quality, and that effect sizes…

School Vouchers and Student Achievement: Recent Evidence and Remaining Questions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rouse, Cecilia Elena; Barrow, Lisa

2009-01-01

In this article, we review the empirical evidence on the impact of education vouchers on student achievement and briefly discuss the evidence from other forms of school choice. The best research to date finds relatively small achievement gains for students offered education vouchers, most of which are not statistically different from zero.…

Precursors to language development in typically and atypically developing infants and toddlers: the importance of embracing complexity.

PubMed

D'Souza, Dean; D'Souza, Hana; Karmiloff-Smith, Annette

2017-05-01

In order to understand how language abilities emerge in typically and atypically developing infants and toddlers, it is important to embrace complexity in development. In this paper, we describe evidence that early language development is an experience-dependent process, shaped by diverse, interconnected, interdependent developmental mechanisms, processes, and abilities (e.g. statistical learning, sampling, functional specialization, visual attention, social interaction, motor ability). We also present evidence from our studies on neurodevelopmental disorders (e.g. Down syndrome, fragile X syndrome, Williams syndrome) that variations in these factors significantly contribute to language delay. Finally, we discuss how embracing complexity, which involves integrating data from different domains and levels of description across developmental time, may lead to a better understanding of language development and, critically, lead to more effective interventions for cases when language develops atypically.

Evidence for e+e-→γ ηc(1 S ) at center-of-mass energies between 4.01 and 4.60 GeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Ahmed, S.; Albrecht, M.; Alekseev, M.; Amoroso, A.; An, F. F.; An, Q.; Bai, J. Z.; Bai, Y.; Bakina, O.; Baldini Ferroli, R.; Ban, Y.; Bennett, D. W.; Bennett, J. V.; Berger, N.; Bertani, M.; Bettoni, D.; Bian, J. M.; Bianchi, F.; Boger, E.; Boyko, I.; Briere, R. A.; Cai, H.; Cai, X.; Cakir, O.; Calcaterra, A.; Cao, G. F.; Cetin, S. A.; Chai, J.; Chang, J. F.; Chelkov, G.; Chen, G.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, J. C.; Chen, M. L.; Chen, S. J.; Chen, X. R.; Chen, Y. B.; Chu, X. K.; Cibinetto, G.; Dai, H. L.; Dai, J. P.; Dbeyssi, A.; Dedovich, D.; Deng, Z. Y.; Denig, A.; Denysenko, I.; Destefanis, M.; de Mori, F.; Ding, Y.; Dong, C.; Dong, J.; Dong, L. Y.; Dong, M. Y.; Dorjkhaidav, O.; Dou, Z. L.; Du, S. X.; Duan, P. F.; Fang, J.; Fang, S. S.; Fang, X.; Fang, Y.; Farinelli, R.; Fava, L.; Fegan, S.; Feldbauer, F.; Felici, G.; Feng, C. Q.; Fioravanti, E.; Fritsch, M.; Fu, C. D.; Gao, Q.; Gao, X. L.; Gao, Y.; Gao, Y. G.; Gao, Z.; Garillon, B.; Garzia, I.; Goetzen, K.; Gong, L.; Gong, W. X.; Gradl, W.; Greco, M.; Gu, M. H.; Gu, S.; Gu, Y. T.; Guo, A. Q.; Guo, L. B.; Guo, R. P.; Guo, Y. P.; Haddadi, Z.; Han, S.; Hao, X. Q.; Harris, F. A.; He, K. L.; He, X. Q.; Heinsius, F. H.; Held, T.; Heng, Y. K.; Holtmann, T.; Hou, Z. L.; Hu, C.; Hu, H. M.; Hu, T.; Hu, Y.; Huang, G. S.; Huang, J. S.; Huang, S. H.; Huang, X. T.; Huang, X. Z.; Huang, Z. L.; Hussain, T.; Ikegami Andersson, W.; Ji, Q.; Ji, Q. P.; Ji, X. B.; Ji, X. L.; Jiang, X. S.; Jiang, X. Y.; Jiao, J. B.; Jiao, Z.; Jin, D. P.; Jin, S.; Jin, Y.; Johansson, T.; Julin, A.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kang, X. L.; Kang, X. S.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Ke, B. C.; Khan, T.; Khoukaz, A.; Kiese, P.; Kliemt, R.; Koch, L.; Kolcu, O. B.; Kopf, B.; Kornicer, M.; Kuemmel, M.; Kuhlmann, M.; Kupsc, A.; Kühn, W.; Lange, J. S.; Lara, M.; Larin, P.; Lavezzi, L.; Leithoff, H.; Leng, C.; Li, C.; Li, Cheng; Li, D. M.; Li, F.; Li, F. Y.; Li, G.; Li, H. B.; Li, H. J.; Li, J. C.; Li, Jin; Li, K.; Li, K.; Li, K. J.; Li, Lei; Li, P. L.; Li, P. R.; Li, Q. Y.; Li, T.; Li, W. D.; Li, W. G.; Li, X. L.; Li, X. N.; Li, X. Q.; Li, Z. B.; Liang, H.; Liang, Y. F.; Liang, Y. T.; Liao, G. R.; Lin, D. X.; Liu, B.; Liu, B. J.; Liu, C. X.; Liu, D.; Liu, F. H.; Liu, Fang; Liu, Feng; Liu, H. B.; Liu, H. H.; Liu, H. H.; Liu, H. M.; Liu, J. B.; Liu, J. Y.; Liu, K.; Liu, K. Y.; Liu, Ke; Liu, L. D.; Liu, P. L.; Liu, Q.; Liu, S. B.; Liu, X.; Liu, Y. B.; Liu, Z. A.; Liu, Zhiqing; Long, Y. F.; Lou, X. C.; Lu, H. J.; Lu, J. G.; Lu, Y.; Lu, Y. P.; Luo, C. L.; Luo, M. X.; Luo, X. L.; Lyu, X. R.; Ma, F. C.; Ma, H. L.; Ma, L. L.; Ma, M. M.; Ma, Q. M.; Ma, T.; Ma, X. N.; Ma, X. Y.; Ma, Y. M.; Maas, F. E.; Maggiora, M.; Malik, Q. A.; Mao, Y. J.; Mao, Z. P.; Marcello, S.; Meng, Z. X.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Mezzadri, G.; Min, J.; Min, T. J.; Mitchell, R. E.; Mo, X. H.; Mo, Y. J.; Morales Morales, C.; Morello, G.; Muchnoi, N. Yu.; Muramatsu, H.; Mustafa, A.; Nefedov, Y.; Nerling, F.; Nikolaev, I. B.; Ning, Z.; Nisar, S.; Niu, S. L.; Niu, X. Y.; Olsen, S. L.; Ouyang, Q.; Pacetti, S.; Pan, Y.; Papenbrock, M.; Patteri, P.; Pelizaeus, M.; Pellegrino, J.; Peng, H. P.; Peters, K.; Pettersson, J.; Ping, J. L.; Ping, R. G.; Pitka, A.; Poling, R.; Prasad, V.; Qi, H. R.; Qi, M.; Qi, T. Y.; Qian, S.; Qiao, C. F.; Qin, N.; Qin, X. S.; Qin, Z. H.; Qiu, J. F.; Rashid, K. H.; Redmer, C. F.; Richter, M.; Ripka, M.; Rolo, M.; Rong, G.; Rosner, Ch.; Sarantsev, A.; Savrié, M.; Schnier, C.; Schoenning, K.; Shan, W.; Shao, M.; Shen, C. P.; Shen, P. X.; Shen, X. Y.; Sheng, H. Y.; Shepherd, M. R.; Song, J. J.; Song, W. M.; Song, X. Y.; Sosio, S.; Sowa, C.; Spataro, S.; Sun, G. X.; Sun, J. F.; Sun, L.; Sun, S. S.; Sun, X. H.; Sun, Y. J.; Sun, Y. K.; Sun, Y. Z.; Sun, Z. J.; Sun, Z. T.; Tang, C. J.; Tang, G. Y.; Tang, X.; Tapan, I.; Tiemens, M.; Tsednee, B. T.; Uman, I.; Varner, G. S.; Wang, B.; Wang, B. L.; Wang, D.; Wang, D. Y.; Wang, Dan; Wang, K.; Wang, L. L.; Wang, L. S.; Wang, M.; Wang, P.; Wang, P. L.; Wang, W. P.; Wang, X. F.; Wang, Y.; Wang, Y. D.; Wang, Y. F.; Wang, Y. Q.; Wang, Z.; Wang, Z. G.; Wang, Z. H.; Wang, Z. Y.; Wang, Z. Y.; Weber, T.; Wei, D. H.; Wei, J. H.; Weidenkaff, P.; Wen, S. P.; Wiedner, U.; Wolke, M.; Wu, L. H.; Wu, L. J.; Wu, Z.; Xia, L.; Xia, Y.; Xiao, D.; Xiao, H.; Xiao, Y. J.; Xiao, Z. J.; Xie, X. H.; Xie, Y. G.; Xie, Y. H.; Xiong, X. A.; Xiu, Q. L.; Xu, G. F.; Xu, J. J.; Xu, L.; Xu, Q. J.; Xu, Q. N.; Xu, X. P.; Yan, L.; Yan, W. B.; Yan, W. C.; Yan, Y. H.; Yang, H. J.; Yang, H. X.; Yang, L.; Yang, Y. H.; Yang, Y. X.; Ye, M.; Ye, M. H.; Yin, J. H.; You, Z. Y.; Yu, B. X.; Yu, C. X.; Yu, J. S.; Yuan, C. Z.; Yuan, Y.; Yuncu, A.; Zafar, A. A.; Zeng, Y.; Zeng, Z.; Zhang, B. X.; Zhang, B. Y.; Zhang, C. C.; Zhang, D. H.; Zhang, H. H.; Zhang, H. Y.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, J. L.; Zhang, J. Q.; Zhang, J. W.; Zhang, J. Y.; Zhang, J. Z.; Zhang, K.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, S. Q.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Y. H.; Zhang, Y. T.; Zhang, Yu; Zhang, Z. H.; Zhang, Z. P.; Zhang, Z. Y.; Zhao, G.; Zhao, J. W.; Zhao, J. Y.; Zhao, J. Z.; Zhao, Lei; Zhao, Ling; Zhao, M. G.; Zhao, Q.; Zhao, S. J.; Zhao, T. C.; Zhao, Y. B.; Zhao, Z. G.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zheng, B.; Zheng, J. P.; Zheng, W. J.; Zheng, Y. H.; Zhong, B.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, X.; Zhou, X. K.; Zhou, X. R.; Zhou, X. Y.; Zhu, J.; Zhu, K.; Zhu, K. J.; Zhu, S.; Zhu, S. H.; Zhu, X. L.; Zhu, Y. C.; Zhu, Y. S.; Zhu, Z. A.; Zhuang, J.; Zou, B. S.; Zou, J. H.; Besiii Collaboration

2017-09-01

We present first evidence for the process e+e-→γ ηc(1 S ) at six center-of-mass energies between 4.01 and 4.60 GeV using data collected by the BESIII experiment operating at BEPCII. We measure the Born cross section at each energy using a combination of twelve ηc(1 S ) decay channels. We also combine all six energies under various assumptions for the energy-dependence of the cross section. If the process is assumed to proceed via the Y (4260 ), we measure a peak Born cross section σpeak(e+e-→γ ηc(1 S ))=2.11 ±0.49 (stat . )±0.36 (syst . ) pb with a statistical significance of 4.2 σ .

Statistics of the cosmic Mach number from numerical simulations of a cold dark matter universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suto, Yasushi; Cen, Renyue; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

1992-01-01

Results are presented of an analysis of the cosmic Mach number, M, the ratio of the streaming velocity, v, to the random velocity dispersion, sigma, of galaxies in a given patch of the universe, which was performed on the basis of hydrodynamical simulations of the cold dark matter scenario. Galaxy formation is modeled by application of detailed physical processes rather than by the ad hoc assumption of 'bias' between dark matter and galaxy fluctuations. The correlation between M and sigma is found to be very weak for both components. No evidence is found for a physical 'velocity bias' in the quantities which appear in the definition of M. Standard cold-dark-matter-dominated universes are in conflict, at a statistically significant level, with the available observation, in that they predict a Mach number considerably lower than is observed.

Maxima of two random walks: Universal statistics of lead changes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ben-Naim, E.; Krapivsky, P. L.; Randon-Furling, J.

2016-04-18

In this study, we investigate statistics of lead changes of the maxima of two discrete-time random walks in one dimension. We show that the average number of lead changes grows asmore » $${\\pi }^{-1}\\mathrm{ln}t$$ in the long-time limit. We present theoretical and numerical evidence that this asymptotic behavior is universal. Specifically, this behavior is independent of the jump distribution: the same asymptotic underlies standard Brownian motion and symmetric Lévy flights. We also show that the probability to have at most n lead changes behaves as $${t}^{-1/4}{(\\mathrm{ln}t)}^{n}$$ for Brownian motion and as $${t}^{-\\beta (\\mu )}{(\\mathrm{ln}t)}^{n}$$ for symmetric Lévy flights with index μ. The decay exponent $$\\beta \\equiv \\beta (\\mu )$$ varies continuously with the Lévy index when $$0\\lt \\mu \\lt 2$$, and remains constant $$\\beta =1/4$$ for $$\\mu \\gt 2$$.« less

Instruction in information structuring improves Bayesian judgment in intelligence analysts.

PubMed

Mandel, David R

2015-01-01

An experiment was conducted to test the effectiveness of brief instruction in information structuring (i.e., representing and integrating information) for improving the coherence of probability judgments and binary choices among intelligence analysts. Forty-three analysts were presented with comparable sets of Bayesian judgment problems before and immediately after instruction. After instruction, analysts' probability judgments were more coherent (i.e., more additive and compliant with Bayes theorem). Instruction also improved the coherence of binary choices regarding category membership: after instruction, subjects were more likely to invariably choose the category to which they assigned the higher probability of a target's membership. The research provides a rare example of evidence-based validation of effectiveness in instruction to improve the statistical assessment skills of intelligence analysts. Such instruction could also be used to improve the assessment quality of other types of experts who are required to integrate statistical information or make probabilistic assessments.

Experimental observation of steady inertial wave turbulence in deep rotating flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yarom, Ehud; Sharon, Eran

2015-11-01

We present experimental evidence of inertial wave turbulence in deep rotating fluid. Experiments were performed in a rotating cylindrical water tank, where previous work showed statistics similar to 2D turbulence (specifically an inverse energy cascade). Using Fourier analysis of high resolution data in both space (3D) and time we show that most of the energy of a steady state flow is contained around the inertial wave dispersion relation. The nonlinear interaction between the waves is manifested by the widening of the time spectrum around the dispersion relation. We show that as the Rossby number increases so does the spectrum width, with a strong dependence on wave number. Our results suggest that in some parameters range, rotating turbulence velocity field can be represented as a field of interacting waves (wave turbulence). Such formalism may provide a better understanding of the flow statistics. This work was supported by the Israel Science Foundation, Grant No. 81/12.

Low-dose ionizing radiation increases the mortality risk of solid cancers in nuclear industry workers: A meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Qu, Shu-Gen; Gao, Jin; Tang, Bo; Yu, Bo; Shen, Yue-Ping; Tu, Yu

2018-01-01

Low-dose ionizing radiation (LDIR) may increase the mortality of solid cancers in nuclear industry workers, but only few individual cohort studies exist, and the available reports have low statistical power. The aim of the present study was to focus on solid cancer mortality risk from LDIR in the nuclear industry using standard mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95% confidence intervals. A systematic literature search through the PubMed and Embase databases identified 27 studies relevant to this meta-analysis. There was statistical significance for total, solid and lung cancers, with meta-SMR values of 0.88, 0.80, and 0.89, respectively. There was evidence of stochastic effects by IR, but more definitive conclusions require additional analyses using standardized protocols to determine whether LDIR increases the risk of solid cancer-related mortality. PMID:29725540

A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

USGS Publications Warehouse

López-Carr, David; Pricope, Narcisa G.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Jankowska, Marta M.; Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.

2014-01-01

We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

Can the behavioral sciences self-correct? A social epistemic study.

PubMed

Romero, Felipe

2016-12-01

Advocates of the self-corrective thesis argue that scientific method will refute false theories and find closer approximations to the truth in the long run. I discuss a contemporary interpretation of this thesis in terms of frequentist statistics in the context of the behavioral sciences. First, I identify experimental replications and systematic aggregation of evidence (meta-analysis) as the self-corrective mechanism. Then, I present a computer simulation study of scientific communities that implement this mechanism to argue that frequentist statistics may converge upon a correct estimate or not depending on the social structure of the community that uses it. Based on this study, I argue that methodological explanations of the "replicability crisis" in psychology are limited and propose an alternative explanation in terms of biases. Finally, I conclude suggesting that scientific self-correction should be understood as an interaction effect between inference methods and social structures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Toxic epidermal necrolysis.

PubMed

Pereira, Frederick A; Mudgil, Adarsh Vijay; Rosmarin, David M

2007-02-01

Toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) is an unpredictable, life-threatening drug reaction associated with a 30% mortality. Massive keratinocyte apoptosis is the hallmark of TEN. Cytotoxic T lymphocytes appear to be the main effector cells and there is experimental evidence for involvement of both the Fas-Fas ligand and perforin/granzyme pathways. Optimal treatment for these patients remains to be clarified. Discontinuation of the offending drug and prompt referral to a burn unit are generally agreed upon steps. Beyond that, however, considerable controversy exists. Evidence both pro and con exists for the use of IVIG, systemic corticosteroid, and other measures. There is also evidence suggesting that combination therapies may be of value. All the clinical data, however, is anecdotal or based on observational or retrospective studies. Definitive answers are not yet available. Given the rarity of TEN and the large number of patients required for a study to be statistically meaningful, placebo controlled trials are logistically difficult to accomplish. The absence of an animal model further hampers research into this condition. This article reviews recent data concerning clinical presentation, pathogenesis and treatment of TEN. At the conclusion of this learning activity, participants should have acquired a more comprehensive knowledge of our current understanding of the classification, clinical presentation, etiology, pathophysiology, prognosis, and treatment of TEN.

Visual shape perception as Bayesian inference of 3D object-centered shape representations.

PubMed

Erdogan, Goker; Jacobs, Robert A

2017-11-01

Despite decades of research, little is known about how people visually perceive object shape. We hypothesize that a promising approach to shape perception is provided by a "visual perception as Bayesian inference" framework which augments an emphasis on visual representation with an emphasis on the idea that shape perception is a form of statistical inference. Our hypothesis claims that shape perception of unfamiliar objects can be characterized as statistical inference of 3D shape in an object-centered coordinate system. We describe a computational model based on our theoretical framework, and provide evidence for the model along two lines. First, we show that, counterintuitively, the model accounts for viewpoint-dependency of object recognition, traditionally regarded as evidence against people's use of 3D object-centered shape representations. Second, we report the results of an experiment using a shape similarity task, and present an extensive evaluation of existing models' abilities to account for the experimental data. We find that our shape inference model captures subjects' behaviors better than competing models. Taken as a whole, our experimental and computational results illustrate the promise of our approach and suggest that people's shape representations of unfamiliar objects are probabilistic, 3D, and object-centered. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

A Gender Bias Habit-Breaking Intervention Led to Increased Hiring of Female Faculty in STEMM Departments.

PubMed

Devine, Patricia G; Forscher, Patrick S; Cox, William T L; Kaatz, Anna; Sheridan, Jennifer; Carnes, Molly

2017-11-01

Addressing the underrepresentation of women in science is a top priority for many institutions, but the majority of efforts to increase representation of women are neither evidence-based nor rigorously assessed. One exception is the gender bias habit-breaking intervention (Carnes et al., 2015), which, in a cluster-randomized trial involving all but two departmental clusters ( N = 92) in the 6 STEMM focused schools/colleges at the University of Wisconsin - Madison, led to increases in gender bias awareness and self-efficacy to promote gender equity in academic science departments. Following this initial success, the present study compares, in a preregistered analysis, hiring rates of new female faculty pre- and post-manipulation. Whereas the proportion of women hired by control departments remained stable over time, the proportion of women hired by intervention departments increased by an estimated 18 percentage points ( OR = 2.23, d OR = 0.34). Though the preregistered analysis did not achieve conventional levels of statistical significance ( p < 0.07), our study has a hard upper limit on statistical power, as the cluster-randomized trial has a maximum sample size of 92 departmental clusters. These patterns have undeniable practical significance for the advancement of women in science, and provide promising evidence that psychological interventions can facilitate gender equity and diversity.

Monitoring the Extent of Forests on National to Global Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Townshend, J.; Townshend, J.; Hansen, M.; DeFries, R.; DeFries, R.; Sohlberg, R.; Desch, A.; White, B.

2001-05-01

Information on forest extent and change is important for many purposes, including understanding the global carbon cycle and managing natural resources. International statistics on forest extent are generated using many different sources often producing inconsistent results spatially and through time. Results will be presented comparing forest extent derived from the recent global Food and Agricultural Organization's (FAO) FRA 2000 report with products derived using wall-to-wall Landsat, AVHRR and MODIS data sets. The remotely sensed data sets provide consistent results in terms of total area despite considerable differences in spatial resolution. Although the location of change can be satisfactorily detected with all three remotely sensed data sets, reliable measurement of change can only be achieved through use of Landsat-resolution data. Contrary to the FRA 2000 results we find evidence of an increase in deforestation rates in the late 1990s in several countries. Also we have found evidence of considerable changes in some countries for which little or no change is reported by FAO. The results indicate the benefits of globally consistent analyses of forest cover based on multiscale remotely sensed data sets rather than a reliance on statistics generated by individual countries with very different definitions of forest and methods used to derive them.

Unique and Overlapping Symptoms in Schizophrenia Spectrum and Dissociative Disorders in Relation to Models of Psychopathology: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Renard, Selwyn B.; Huntjens, Rafaele J. C.; Lysaker, Paul H.; Moskowitz, Andrew; Aleman, André; Pijnenborg, Gerdina H. M.

2017-01-01

Schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSDs) and dissociative disorders (DDs) are described in the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-5) and tenth edition of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) as 2 categorically distinct diagnostic categories. However, several studies indicate high levels of co-occurrence between these diagnostic groups, which might be explained by overlapping symptoms. The aim of this systematic review is to provide a comprehensive overview of the research concerning overlap and differences in symptoms between schizophrenia spectrum and DDs. For this purpose the PubMed, PsycINFO, and Web of Science databases were searched for relevant literature. The literature contained a large body of evidence showing the presence of symptoms of dissociation in SSDs. Although there are quantitative differences between diagnoses, overlapping symptoms are not limited to certain domains of dissociation, nor to nonpathological forms of dissociation. In addition, dissociation seems to be related to a history of trauma in SSDs, as is also seen in DDs. There is also evidence showing that positive and negative symptoms typically associated with schizophrenia may be present in DD. Implications of these results are discussed with regard to different models of psychopathology and clinical practice. PMID:27209638

Effectiveness of aquatic exercise and balneotherapy: a summary of systematic reviews based on randomized controlled trials of water immersion therapies.

PubMed

Kamioka, Hiroharu; Tsutani, Kiichiro; Okuizumi, Hiroyasu; Mutoh, Yoshiteru; Ohta, Miho; Handa, Shuichi; Okada, Shinpei; Kitayuguchi, Jun; Kamada, Masamitsu; Shiozawa, Nobuyoshi; Honda, Takuya

2010-01-01

The objective of this review was to summarize findings on aquatic exercise and balneotherapy and to assess the quality of systematic reviews based on randomized controlled trials. Studies were eligible if they were systematic reviews based on randomized clinical trials (with or without a meta-analysis) that included at least 1 treatment group that received aquatic exercise or balneotherapy. We searched the following databases: Cochrane Database Systematic Review, MEDLINE, CINAHL, Web of Science, JDream II, and Ichushi-Web for articles published from the year 1990 to August 17, 2008. We found evidence that aquatic exercise had small but statistically significant effects on pain relief and related outcome measures of locomotor diseases (eg, arthritis, rheumatoid diseases, and low back pain). However, long-term effectiveness was unclear. Because evidence was lacking due to the poor methodological quality of balneotherapy studies, we were unable to make any conclusions on the effects of intervention. There were frequent flaws regarding the description of excluded RCTs and the assessment of publication bias in several trials. Two of the present authors independently assessed the quality of articles using the AMSTAR checklist. Aquatic exercise had a small but statistically significant short-term effect on locomotor diseases. However, the effectiveness of balneotherapy in curing disease or improving health remains unclear.

Discrepancies Between Plastic Surgery Meeting Abstracts and Subsequent Full-Length Manuscript Publications.

PubMed

Denadai, Rafael; Araujo, Gustavo Henrique; Pinho, Andre Silveira; Denadai, Rodrigo; Samartine, Hugo; Raposo-Amaral, Cassio Eduardo

2016-10-01

The purpose of this bibliometric study was to assess the discrepancies between plastic surgery meeting abstracts and subsequent full-length manuscript publications. Abstracts presented at the Brazilian Congress of Plastic Surgery from 2010 to 2011 were compared with matching manuscript publications. Discrepancies between the abstract and the subsequent manuscript were categorized as major (changes in the purpose, methods, study design, sample size, statistical analysis, results, and conclusions) and minor (changes in the title and authorship) variations. The overall discrepancy rate was 96 %, with at least one major (76 %) and/or minor (96 %) variation. There were inconsistencies between the study title (56 %), authorship (92 %), purpose (6 %), methods (20 %), study design (36 %), sample size (51.2 %), statistical analysis (14 %), results (20 %), and conclusions (8 %) of manuscripts compared with their corresponding meeting abstracts. As changes occur before manuscript publication of plastic surgery meeting abstracts, caution should be exercised in referencing abstracts or altering surgical practices based on abstracts' content. This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

Circadian temperature rhythms of older people

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monk, T. H.; Buysse, D. J.; Reynolds, C. F. 3rd; Kupfer, D. J.; Houck, P. R.

1995-01-01

This collection of studies had the aim of exploring whether older (77+ years) men and women have circadian body temperature rhythms different from those of younger adults. A total of 20 older men and 28 older women were compared with either 22 young men or 14 middle-aged men in four protocols; all but the first protocol using a subset of the sample. The four protocols were: 1) 24 h, and 2) 72 h data collections on a normal laboratory routine (sleeping at night); 3) between 36 h and 153 h of field data collection at home; and 4) 36 h of a constant conditions routine (wakeful bedrest under temporal isolation) in the laboratory. There was some evidence for an age-related phase advance in temperature rhythm, especially for the older men on a normal routine, though this was not present in the constant conditions protocol, where 5 of the older subjects showed major delays in the timing of the body temperature trough (10:00 or later). There was no statistically significant evidence from any of the protocols that older subjects generally had lower temperature rhythm amplitudes than younger adults. Only when older men were compared with younger men in 24-h rhythm amplitude by simple t-test did any comparison involving amplitude achieve statistical significance (p < 0.05).

Statistical significance estimation of a signal within the GooFit framework on GPUs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristella, Leonardo; Di Florio, Adriano; Pompili, Alexis

2017-03-01

In order to test the computing capabilities of GPUs with respect to traditional CPU cores a high-statistics toy Monte Carlo technique has been implemented both in ROOT/RooFit and GooFit frameworks with the purpose to estimate the statistical significance of the structure observed by CMS close to the kinematical boundary of the J/ψϕ invariant mass in the three-body decay B+ → J/ψϕK+. GooFit is a data analysis open tool under development that interfaces ROOT/RooFit to CUDA platform on nVidia GPU. The optimized GooFit application running on GPUs hosted by servers in the Bari Tier2 provides striking speed-up performances with respect to the RooFit application parallelised on multiple CPUs by means of PROOF-Lite tool. The considerable resulting speed-up, evident when comparing concurrent GooFit processes allowed by CUDA Multi Process Service and a RooFit/PROOF-Lite process with multiple CPU workers, is presented and discussed in detail. By means of GooFit it has also been possible to explore the behaviour of a likelihood ratio test statistic in different situations in which the Wilks Theorem may or may not apply because its regularity conditions are not satisfied.

Performance studies of GooFit on GPUs vs RooFit on CPUs while estimating the statistical significance of a new physical signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Florio, Adriano

2017-10-01

In order to test the computing capabilities of GPUs with respect to traditional CPU cores a high-statistics toy Monte Carlo technique has been implemented both in ROOT/RooFit and GooFit frameworks with the purpose to estimate the statistical significance of the structure observed by CMS close to the kinematical boundary of the J/ψϕ invariant mass in the three-body decay B + → J/ψϕK +. GooFit is a data analysis open tool under development that interfaces ROOT/RooFit to CUDA platform on nVidia GPU. The optimized GooFit application running on GPUs hosted by servers in the Bari Tier2 provides striking speed-up performances with respect to the RooFit application parallelised on multiple CPUs by means of PROOF-Lite tool. The considerable resulting speed-up, evident when comparing concurrent GooFit processes allowed by CUDA Multi Process Service and a RooFit/PROOF-Lite process with multiple CPU workers, is presented and discussed in detail. By means of GooFit it has also been possible to explore the behaviour of a likelihood ratio test statistic in different situations in which the Wilks Theorem may or may not apply because its regularity conditions are not satisfied.

Matching pollution with adaptive changes in mangrove plants by multivariate statistics. A case study, Rhizophora mangle from four neotropical mangroves in Brazil.

PubMed

Souza, Iara da Costa; Morozesk, Mariana; Duarte, Ian Drumond; Bonomo, Marina Marques; Rocha, Lívia Dorsch; Furlan, Larissa Maria; Arrivabene, Hiulana Pereira; Monferrán, Magdalena Victoria; Matsumoto, Silvia Tamie; Milanez, Camilla Rozindo Dias; Wunderlin, Daniel Alberto; Fernandes, Marisa Narciso

2014-08-01

Roots of mangrove trees have an important role in depurating water and sediments by retaining metals that may accumulate in different plant tissues, affecting physiological processes and anatomy. The present study aimed to evaluate adaptive changes in root of Rhizophora mangle in response to different levels of chemical elements (metals/metalloids) in interstitial water and sediments from four neotropical mangroves in Brazil. What sets this study apart from other studies is that we not only investigate adaptive modifications in R. mangle but also changes in environments where this plant grows, evaluating correspondence between physical, chemical and biological issues by a combined set of multivariate statistical methods (pattern recognition). Thus, we looked to match changes in the environment with adaptations in plants. Multivariate statistics highlighted that the lignified periderm and the air gaps are directly related to the environmental contamination. Current results provide new evidences of root anatomical strategies to deal with contaminated environments. Multivariate statistics greatly contributes to extrapolate results from complex data matrixes obtained when analyzing environmental issues, pointing out parameters involved in environmental changes and also evidencing the adaptive response of the exposed biota. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A computer-based instrumentation system for measurement of breath-by-breath oxygen consumption and carbon dioxide production.

PubMed

Sharma, C; Gallagher, R R

1994-01-01

Improvements are implemented (Version 4) in a Computer-Based Respiratory Measurement System (CBRMS) identified as Version 3. The programming language has been changed from Pascal to C. A Gateway 2000 desktop computer with 486 DX2/50MHz CPU and a plug-in data I/O board (KEITHLEY METRABYTE/ASYST/DAC's DAS-HRES 16-bit Analog and Digital I/O board) replaces an HP 9836 system used in Version 3. The breath-by-breath system consists of a mass spectrometer for measuring fractional concentrations of oxygen and carbon dioxide and the accommodation of a turbine or pneumotachometer for measuring inspiratory and expiratory flows. The temperature of the inspiratory and expiratory gases can be monitored if temperature corrections are necessary for the flow measurement device. These signals are presented to the PC via the data acquisition module. To compare the two Versions, ten significant respiratory parameters were investigated and compared for physiological resting states and steady states obtained during an exercise forcing. Both graphical and statistical (analysis of variance, regression, and correlation) tests were carried out on the data. The results from the two versions compared well for all ten parameters. Also, no evidence of a statistically significant difference was found between the resting and steady-state results of the present CBRMS (Version 4) and the previous CBRMS (Version 3). This evidence suggests that Version 3 (Pascal) has been successfully converted to Version 4 (C). Implementation of the CBRMS in C on a PC has several advantages.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Smoking increases the risk of diabetic foot amputation: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Min; Zhang, Wei; Yan, Zhaoli; Yuan, Xiangzhen

2018-02-01

Accumulating evidence suggests that smoking is associated with diabetic foot amputation. However, the currently available results are inconsistent and controversial. Therefore, the present study performed a meta-analysis to systematically review the association between smoking and diabetic foot amputation and to investigate the risk factors of diabetic foot amputation. Public databases, including PubMed and Embase, were searched prior to 29th February 2016. The heterogeneity was assessed using the Cochran's Q statistic and the I 2 statistic, and odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated and pooled appropriately. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the stability of the results. In addition, Egger's test was applied to assess any potential publication bias. Based on the research, a total of eight studies, including five cohort studies and three case control studies were included. The data indicated that smoking significantly increased the risk of diabetic foot amputation (OR=1.65; 95% CI, 1.09-2.50; P<0.0001) compared with non-smoking. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the pooled analysis did not vary substantially following the exclusion of any one study. Additionally, there was no evidence of publication bias (Egger's test, t=0.1378; P=0.8958). Furthermore, no significant difference was observed between the minor and major amputation groups in patients who smoked (OR=0.79; 95% CI, 0.24-2.58). The results of the present meta-analysis suggested that smoking is a notable risk factor for diabetic foot amputation. Smoking cessation appears to reduce the risk of diabetic foot amputation.

Clinical importance of caffeine dependence and abuse.

PubMed

Ogawa, Naoshi; Ueki, Hirofumi

2007-06-01

Caffeine is the most widely consumed psychoactive substance and is a legal stimulant that is readily available to children. Caffeine has occasionally been considered a drug of abuse and the potential for dependence on caffeine has been debated. Presently, due to a paucity of clinical evidence on caffeine dependence or abuse, no such diagnosis is included in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorder-fourth edition. The authors present two cases of abuse or dependence on the caffeine contained in 'eutrophic' (energy/nutritional) beverages or caffeine preparations, followed by a review of clinical studies demonstrating evidence that some people can manifest a clinical syndrome of caffeine dependence or abuse. The cases suggest that caffeine can produce a clinical dependence syndrome similar to those produced by other psychoactive substances and has a potential for abuse. In a recent study using a structured interview and the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorder-fourth edition criteria for substance dependence and abuse, a subset of the general population was found to demonstrate caffeine dependence or caffeine abuse. Therefore, the authors propose that companies or businesses manufacturing or marketing caffeine or products containing caffeine must meet the following guidelines: (i) clearly indicate the caffeine content of products containing comparatively higher quantities of caffeine; (ii) warn that such products should be avoided by infants and children wherever possible, and inform adult consumers about the precise quantity of caffeine that is considered safe for consumption; and (iii) clearly state that consuming large quantities of caffeine and the long-term use of caffeine carry health risks.

Response to Comments on "Evidence for mesothermy in dinosaurs".

PubMed

Grady, John M; Enquist, Brian J; Dettweiler-Robinson, Eva; Wright, Natalie A; Smith, Felisa A

2015-05-29

D'Emic and Myhrvold raise a number of statistical and methodological issues with our recent analysis of dinosaur growth and energetics. However, their critiques and suggested improvements lack biological and statistical justification. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Principles of Statistics: What the Sports Medicine Professional Needs to Know.

PubMed

Riemann, Bryan L; Lininger, Monica R

2018-07-01

Understanding the results and statistics reported in original research remains a large challenge for many sports medicine practitioners and, in turn, may be among one of the biggest barriers to integrating research into sports medicine practice. The purpose of this article is to provide minimal essentials a sports medicine practitioner needs to know about interpreting statistics and research results to facilitate the incorporation of the latest evidence into practice. Topics covered include the difference between statistical significance and clinical meaningfulness; effect sizes and confidence intervals; reliability statistics, including the minimal detectable difference and minimal important difference; and statistical power. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Are Interactions between cis-Regulatory Variants Evidence for Biological Epistasis or Statistical Artifacts?

PubMed

Fish, Alexandra E; Capra, John A; Bush, William S

2016-10-06

The importance of epistasis-or statistical interactions between genetic variants-to the development of complex disease in humans has been controversial. Genome-wide association studies of statistical interactions influencing human traits have recently become computationally feasible and have identified many putative interactions. However, statistical models used to detect interactions can be confounded, which makes it difficult to be certain that observed statistical interactions are evidence for true molecular epistasis. In this study, we investigate whether there is evidence for epistatic interactions between genetic variants within the cis-regulatory region that influence gene expression after accounting for technical, statistical, and biological confounding factors. We identified 1,119 (FDR = 5%) interactions that appear to regulate gene expression in human lymphoblastoid cell lines, a tightly controlled, largely genetically determined phenotype. Many of these interactions replicated in an independent dataset (90 of 803 tested, Bonferroni threshold). We then performed an exhaustive analysis of both known and novel confounders, including ceiling/floor effects, missing genotype combinations, haplotype effects, single variants tagged through linkage disequilibrium, and population stratification. Every interaction could be explained by at least one of these confounders, and replication in independent datasets did not protect against some confounders. Assuming that the confounding factors provide a more parsimonious explanation for each interaction, we find it unlikely that cis-regulatory interactions contribute strongly to human gene expression, which calls into question the relevance of cis-regulatory interactions for other human phenotypes. We additionally propose several best practices for epistasis testing to protect future studies from confounding. Copyright © 2016 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The ability of computed tomography to diagnose placental abruption in the trauma patient.

PubMed

Kopelman, Tammy R; Berardoni, Nicole E; Manriquez, Maria; Gridley, Daniel; Vail, Sydney J; Pieri, Paola G; O'Neill; Pressman, Melissa A

2013-01-01

Fetal demise following trauma remains a devastating complication largely owing to placental injury and abruption. Our objective was to determine if abdominopelvic computed tomographic (CT) imaging can assess for placental abruption (PA) when obtained to exclude associated maternal injuries. Retrospective review of pregnant trauma patients of 20-week gestation or longer presenting to a trauma center during a 7-year period who underwent CT imaging as part of their initial evaluation. Radiographic images were reviewed by a radiologist for evidence of PA and classified based on percentage of visualized placental enhancement. Blinded to CT results, charts were reviewed by an obstetrician for clinical evidence of PA and classified as strongly positive, possibly positive, or no evidence. A total of 176 patients met inclusion criteria. CT imaging revealed evidence of PA in 61 patients (35%). As the percentage of placental enhancement decreased, patients were more likely to have strong clinical manifestations of PA, reaching statistical significance when enhancement was less than 50%. CT imaging evidence of PA was apparent in all patients who required delivery for nonassuring fetal heart tones. CT imaging evaluation of the placenta can accurately identify PA and therefore can help stratify patients at risk for fetal complications. The likelihood of requiring delivery increased as placental enhancement declined to less than 25%. Diagnostic study, level III.

Exploring the interaction of patient activation and message design variables: message frame and presentation mode influence on the walking behavior of patients with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Ledford, Christy J W

2012-10-01

Examining interpersonal (physician-patient) communication strategies for promoting walking exercise to patients with type 2 diabetes assigned to primary care clinics, the study evaluated two message design variables--frame and presentation mode--as influencers of communication and adoption success. The single-site, four-week, prospective intervention study followed a 2×3 factorial, non-equivalent comparison group quasi-experimental design. Results showed frame was significantly related to steps walked; however, when including patient activation as an interaction, frame was non-significant. The model including patient activation interactions, however, detected significant mode effects on behavior. Results provide evidence that statistics are most effectively used with activated patients.

Interventions to improve the use of systematic reviews in decision-making by health system managers, policy makers and clinicians.

PubMed

Murthy, Lakshmi; Shepperd, Sasha; Clarke, Mike J; Garner, Sarah E; Lavis, John N; Perrier, Laure; Roberts, Nia W; Straus, Sharon E

2012-09-12

Systematic reviews provide a transparent and robust summary of existing research. However, health system managers, national and local policy makers and healthcare professionals can face several obstacles when attempting to utilise this evidence. These include constraints operating within the health system, dealing with a large volume of research evidence and difficulties in adapting evidence from systematic reviews so that it is locally relevant. In an attempt to increase the use of systematic review evidence in decision-making a number of interventions have been developed. These include summaries of systematic review evidence that are designed to improve the accessibility of the findings of systematic reviews (often referred to as information products) and changes to organisational structures, such as employing specialist groups to synthesise the evidence to inform local decision-making. To identify and assess the effects of information products based on the findings of systematic review evidence and organisational supports and processes designed to support the uptake of systematic review evidence by health system managers, policy makers and healthcare professionals. We searched The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science, and Health Economic Evaluations Database. We also handsearched two journals (Implementation Science and Evidence and Policy), Cochrane Colloquium abstracts, websites of key organisations and reference lists of studies considered for inclusion. Searches were run from 1992 to March 2011 on all databases, an update search to March 2012 was run on MEDLINE only. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), interrupted time-series (ITS) and controlled before-after studies (CBA) of interventions designed to aid the use of systematic reviews in healthcare decision-making were considered. Two review authors independently extracted the data and assessed the study quality. We extracted the median value across similar outcomes for each study and reported the range of values for each median value. We calculated the median of the two middlemost values if an even number of outcomes were reported. We included eight studies evaluating the effectiveness of different interventions designed to support the uptake of systematic review evidence. The overall quality of the evidence was very low to moderate.Two cluster RCTs evaluated the effectiveness of multifaceted interventions, which contained access to systematic reviews relevant to reproductive health, to change obstetric care; the high baseline performance in some of the key clinical indicators limited the findings of these studies. There were no statistically significant effects on clinical practice for all but one of the clinical indicators in selected obstetric units in Thailand (median effect size 4.2%, range -11.2% to 18.2%) and none in Mexico (median effect size 3.5%, range 0.1% to 19.0%). In the second cluster RCT there were no statistically significant differences in selected obstetric units in the UK (median effect RR 0.92; range RR 0.57 to RR 1.10). One RCT evaluated the perceived understanding and ease of use of summary of findings tables in Cochrane Reviews. The median effect of the differences in responses for the acceptability of including summary of findings tables in Cochrane Reviews versus not including them was 16%, range 1% to 28%. One RCT evaluated the effect of an analgesic league table, derived from systematic review evidence, and there was no statistically significant effect on self-reported pain. Only one RCT evaluated an organisational intervention (which included a knowledge broker, access to a repository of systematic reviews and provision of tailored messages), and reported no statistically significant difference in evidence informed programme planning.Three interrupted time series studies evaluated the dissemination of printed bulletins based on evidence from systematic reviews. A statistically significant reduction in the rates of surgery for glue ear in children under 10 years (mean annual decline of -10.1%; 95% CI -7.9 to -12.3) and in children under 15 years (quarterly reduction -0.044; 95% CI -0.080 to -0.011) was reported. The distribution to general practitioners of a bulletin on the treatment of depression was associated with a statistically significant lower prescribing rate each quarter than that predicted by the rates of prescribing observed before the distribution of the bulletin (8.2%; P = 0.005). Mass mailing a printed bulletin which summarises systematic review evidence may improve evidence-based practice when there is a single clear message, if the change is relatively simple to accomplish, and there is a growing awareness by users of the evidence that a change in practice is required. If the intention is to develop awareness and knowledge of systematic review evidence, and the skills for implementing this evidence, a multifaceted intervention that addresses each of these aims may be required, though there is insufficient evidence to support this approach.

Procedural and short-term safety of bronchial thermoplasty in clinical practice: evidence from a national registry and Hospital Episode Statistics.

PubMed

Burn, Julie; Sims, Andrew J; Keltie, Kim; Patrick, Hannah; Welham, Sally A; Heaney, Liam G; Niven, Robert M

2017-10-01

Bronchial thermoplasty (BT) is a novel treatment for severe asthma. Its mode of action and ideal target patient group remain poorly defined, though clinical trials provided some evidence on efficacy and safety. This study presents procedural and short-term safety evidence from routine UK clinical practice. Patient characteristics and safety outcomes (procedural complications, 30-day readmission and accident and emergency (A&E) attendance, length of stay) were assessed using two independent data sources, the British Thoracic Society UK Difficult Asthma Registry (DAR) and Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) database. A matched cohort (with records in both) was used to estimate safety outcome event rates and compare them with clinical trials. Between June 2011 and January 2015, 215 procedure records (83 patients; 68 treated in England) were available from DAR and 203 (85 patients) from HES. 152 procedures matched (59 patients; 6 centres), and of these, 11.2% reported a procedural complication, 11.8% resulted in emergency respiratory readmission, 0.7% in respiratory A&E attendance within 30 days (20.4% had at least one event) and 46.1% involved a post-procedure stay. Compared with published clinical trials which found lower hospitalisation rates, BT patients in routine clinical practice were, on average, older, had worse baseline lung function and asthma quality of life. A higher proportion of patients experienced adverse events compared with clinical trials. The greater severity of disease amongst patients treated in clinical practice may explain the observed rate of post-procedural stay and readmission. Study of long-term safety and efficacy requires continuing data collection.

Use of acetaminophen and risk of endometrial cancer: evidence from observational studies.

PubMed

Ding, Yuan-Yuan; Yao, Peng; Verma, Surya; Han, Zhen-Kai; Hong, Tao; Zhu, Yong-Qiang; Li, Hong-Xi

2017-05-23

Previous meta-analyses suggested that aspirin was associated with reduced risk of endometrial cancer. However, there has been no study comprehensively summarize the evidence of acetaminophen use and risk of endometrial cancer from observational studies. We systematically searched electronic databases (PubMed , EMBASE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library) for relevant cohort or case-control studies up to February 28, 2017. Two independent authors performed the eligibility evaluation and data extraction. All differences were resolved by discussion. A random-effects model was applied to estimate summary relative risks (RRs) with 95% CIs. All statistical tests were two-sided. Seven observational studies including four prospective cohort studies and three case-control studies with 3874 endometrial cancer cases were included for final analysis. Compared with never use acetaminophen, ever use this drug was not associated with risk of endometrial cancer (summarized RR = 1.02; 95% CI: 0.93-1.13, I2 = 0%). Similar null association was also observed when compared the highest category of frequency/duration with never use acetaminophen (summarized RR = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.70-1.11, I2 = 15.2%). Additionally, the finding was robust in the subgroup analyses stratified by study characteristics and adjustment for potential confounders and risk factors. There was no evidence of publication bias by a visual inspection of a funnel plot and formal statistical tests. In summary, the present meta-analysis reveals no association between acetaminophen use and risk of endometrial cancer. More large scale prospective cohort studies are warranted to confirm our findings and carry out the dose-response analysis of aforementioned association.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with non-contact soft tissue injuries in elite professional soccer players: influence on degree of injury and recovery time

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The biological mechanisms involved in non-contact musculoskeletal soft tissue injuries (NCMSTI) are poorly understood. Genetic risk factors may be associated with susceptibility to injuries, and may exert marked influence on recovery times. Methods Data on type and degree of injury and recovery time were collected in 73 male professional soccer players (43 White, 11 Black Africans and 19 Hispanics) who suffered total of 242 injuries (203 muscle, 24 ligament, and 15 tendon injuries). One single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) in the following genes were analyzed: Elastin (ELN); Titin (TTN); SRY-related HMG-box (SOX15); Insulin-like growth factor 2 (IGF2); Chemokine, CC motif, ligand 2 (CCL2); Collagen type 1 alpha 1(COL1A1); Collagen type 5 alpha 1 (COL5A1), and Tenascin C (TNC). Results There was evidence of a statistically significant association between the degree of injury and the IGF2 genotype (P = 0.034). In addition, there was evidence of a statistically significant association between the degree of muscle injury and CCL2 (P = 0.026) Finally, there was evidence of a statistically significant association between ELN and degree of injury (p = 0.009) and recovery time (P = 0.043). There was no evidence of a statistically significant association between any of the genes studied and degree of injury or recovery time for tendon injuries. Conclusion SNPs in the IGF2, CCL2, and ELN genes may be associated to the degree and recovery time of NCMSTI. PMID:23890452

Improving the Effectiveness of Fundraising Messages: The Impact of Charity Goal Attainment, Message Framing, and Evidence on Persuasion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Das, Enny; Kerkhof, Peter; Kuiper, Joyce

2008-01-01

This experimental study assessed the effectiveness of fundraising messages. Based on recent findings regarding the effects of message framing and evidence, effective fundraising messages should combine abstract, statistical information with a negative message frame and anecdotal evidence with a positive message frame. In addition, building on…

School Vouchers and Student Achievement: Recent Evidence, Remaining Questions. WP 2008-08

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rouse, Cecilia Elena; Barrow, Lisa

2008-01-01

In this article, we review the empirical evidence on the impact of education vouchers on student achievement, and briefly discuss the evidence from other forms of school choice. The best research to date finds relatively small achievement gains for students offered education vouchers, most of which are not statistically different from zero.…

The fighting hypothesis in combat: how well does the fighting hypothesis explain human left-handed minorities?

PubMed

Groothuis, Ton G G; McManus, I C; Schaafsma, Sara M; Geuze, Reint H

2013-06-01

The strong population bias in hand preference in favor of right-handedness seems to be a typical human trait. An elegant evolutionary hypothesis explaining this trait is the so-called fighting hypothesis that postulates that left-handedness is under frequency-dependent selection. The fighting hypothesis assumes that left-handers, being in the minority because of health issues, are still maintained in the population since they would have a greater chance of winning in fights than right-handers due to a surprise effect. This review critically evaluates the assumptions and evidence for this hypothesis and concludes that some evidence, although consistent with the fighting hypothesis, does not directly support it and may also be interpreted differently. Other supportive data are ambiguous or open for both statistical and theoretical criticism. We conclude that, presently, evidence for the fighting hypothesis is not particularly strong, but that there is little evidence to reject it either. The hypothesis thus remains an intuitively plausible explanation for the persistent left-hand preference in the population. We suggest alternative explanations and several ways forward for obtaining more crucial data for testing this frequently cited hypothesis. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

Evidence-based practice: the importance of education and leadership.

PubMed

Johansson, Birgitta; Fogelberg-Dahm, Marie; Wadensten, Barbro

2010-01-01

To describe evidence-based practice among head nurses and to explore whether number of years of duty is associated with such activities. Further to evaluate the effects of education on evidence-based practice and perceived support from immediate superiors. Registered nurses in Sweden are required by law to perform care based on research findings and best experiences. In order to achieve this, evidence-based practice (EBP) is of key importance. All 168 head nurses at two hospitals were asked to participate. Ninety-nine (59%) completed the survey. Data were collected using a study-specific web-based questionnaire. The majority reported a positive attitude towards EBP, but also a lack of time for EBP activities. A greater number of years as a head nurse was positively correlated with research utilization. Education in research methods and perceived support from immediate superiors were statistically and significantly associated with increased EBP activities. The present study highlights the value of education in research methods and the importance of supportive leadership. Education is an important factor in the employment of head nurses. We recommend interventions to create increased support for EBP among management, the goal being to deliver high-quality care and increase patient satisfaction.

Revealing the face of an ancient Egyptian: synthesis of current and traditional approaches to evidence-based facial approximation.

PubMed

Lindsay, Kaitlin E; Rühli, Frank J; Deleon, Valerie Burke

2015-06-01

The technique of forensic facial approximation, or reconstruction, is one of many facets of the field of mummy studies. Although far from a rigorous scientific technique, evidence-based visualization of antemortem appearance may supplement radiological, chemical, histological, and epidemiological studies of ancient remains. Published guidelines exist for creating facial approximations, but few approximations are published with documentation of the specific process and references used. Additionally, significant new research has taken place in recent years which helps define best practices in the field. This case study records the facial approximation of a 3,000-year-old ancient Egyptian woman using medical imaging data and the digital sculpting program, ZBrush. It represents a synthesis of current published techniques based on the most solid anatomical and/or statistical evidence. Through this study, it was found that although certain improvements have been made in developing repeatable, evidence-based guidelines for facial approximation, there are many proposed methods still awaiting confirmation from comprehensive studies. This study attempts to assist artists, anthropologists, and forensic investigators working in facial approximation by presenting the recommended methods in a chronological and usable format. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cocaine and thrombosis: a narrative systematic review of clinical and in-vivo studies

PubMed Central

Wright, Nat MJ; Martin, Matthew; Goff, Tom; Morgan, John; Elworthy, Rebecca; Ghoneim, Shariffe

2007-01-01

Purpose To systematically review the literature pertaining to the link between cocaine and either arterial or venous thrombosis. Procedures Narrative systematic review of Medline, CINAHL, Embase, Psycinfo and Cochrane databases supplemented by hand trawling of relevant journals and reference lists up to April 2007. In-vivo studies and those with clinical endpoints were included in the review. Results A total of 2458 abstracts led to 186 full-text papers being retrieved. 15 met the criteria for inclusion in the review. The weight of evidence would support cocaine as a pro-thrombotic agent. There is evidence of it activating thrombotic pathways. The effect of cocaine upon clinical endpoints has not been quantified though there is evidence of an association between cocaine and myocardial infarction particularly amongst young adults. Cocaine may also be a causal agent in cerebrovascular accident though studies lacked sufficient power to determine a statistically significant effect. There is a gap in the evidence pertaining to the issue of cocaine and venous thrombosis. Conclusion Clinicians should consider questioning for cocaine use particularly amongst young adults who present with cardiac symptoms. More epidemiological work is required to quantify the effect of cocaine upon both arterial and venous clotting mechanisms. PMID:17880705

Is there a role for cannabidiol in psychiatry?

PubMed

Khoury, Julia Machado; Neves, Maila de Castro Lourenço das; Roque, Marco Antônio Valente; Queiroz, Daniela Alves de Brito; Corrêa de Freitas, André Augusto; de Fátima, Ângelo; Moreira, Fabrício A; Garcia, Frederico Duarte

2017-02-20

Understanding whether cannabidiol (CBD) is useful and safe for the treatment of psychiatric disorders is essential to empower psychiatrists and patients to take good clinical decisions. Our aim was to conduct a systematic review regarding the benefits and adverse events (AEs) of CBD in the treatment of schizophrenia, psychotic disorders, anxiety disorders, depression, bipolar disorder and substance-use disorders. We conducted a literature search in PubMed, Scielo, and Clinicaltrials.gov databases. Evidence was classified according to the WFSBP task forces standards. Bibliographic research yielded 692 records. After analysis, we included six case reports and seven trials, comprising 201 subjects. Most the studies published presented several drawbacks and did not reach statistical significance. We have not found evidence regarding major depressive and bipolar disorders. The level of evidence for cannabis withdrawal is B; cannabis addiction is C2; treatment of positive symptoms in schizophrenia and anxiety in social anxiety disorder is C1. Discrete or no AEs were reported. The most frequently reported AEs are sedation and dizziness. The evidence regarding efficacy and safety of CBD in psychiatry is still scarce. Further larger well-designed randomised controlled trials are required to assess the effects of CBD in psychiatric disorders.

iRefWeb: interactive analysis of consolidated protein interaction data and their supporting evidence

PubMed Central

Turner, Brian; Razick, Sabry; Turinsky, Andrei L.; Vlasblom, James; Crowdy, Edgard K.; Cho, Emerson; Morrison, Kyle; Wodak, Shoshana J.

2010-01-01

We present iRefWeb, a web interface to protein interaction data consolidated from 10 public databases: BIND, BioGRID, CORUM, DIP, IntAct, HPRD, MINT, MPact, MPPI and OPHID. iRefWeb enables users to examine aggregated interactions for a protein of interest, and presents various statistical summaries of the data across databases, such as the number of organism-specific interactions, proteins and cited publications. Through links to source databases and supporting evidence, researchers may gauge the reliability of an interaction using simple criteria, such as the detection methods, the scale of the study (high- or low-throughput) or the number of cited publications. Furthermore, iRefWeb compares the information extracted from the same publication by different databases, and offers means to follow-up possible inconsistencies. We provide an overview of the consolidated protein–protein interaction landscape and show how it can be automatically cropped to aid the generation of meaningful organism-specific interactomes. iRefWeb can be accessed at: http://wodaklab.org/iRefWeb. Database URL: http://wodaklab.org/iRefWeb/ PMID:20940177

Nabilone therapy for cannabis withdrawal presenting as protracted nausea and vomiting.

PubMed

Lam, Philip W; Frost, David W

2014-09-22

Cannabis is one of the most commonly used recreational drugs worldwide. Psychoactive properties of the principal compound, δ-9-tetrahydrocannabinol include euphoria, a sense of relaxation and increased appetite. Chronic cannabis use has been associated with the development of a withdrawal syndrome on abrupt discontinuation. Withdrawal symptoms typically begin within 24 h of abstinence and manifest as irritability, nervousness, sleep disturbances and decreased appetite. There is growing evidence that supports the use of plant-derived and synthetic cannabinoids for the treatment of cannabis withdrawal. In this case report, we present 20-year-old woman who developed protracted nausea and vomiting secondary to cannabis withdrawal and was successfully treated with nabilone. Nausea and vomiting is not listed in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual-5 diagnostic criteria for cannabis withdrawal syndrome and is an uncommon symptom presentation. 2014 BMJ Publishing Group Ltd.

The forest and the trees. [comments on comet nuclei, cometary origin, and correlations among cometary data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whipple, Fred L.

1991-01-01

Comments on the nature of cometary nuclei, some problems regarding cometary origin, and some correlations among cometary data are presented. Comparisons with an earlier report on cometary nuclei are noted, and most of the earlier advances in concept are substantiated. The mean density of the Halley nucleus may have been underestimated, while the nature of the rotation remains uncertain. The dust/gas ratio apparently needs to be increased by as much as two times, perhaps to unity or higher. CHON grains appear to be important sources of gas. Evidence is presented to support the thesis that aging among long-period comets increases statistically as the periods decrease. Data on the orientation of cometary axes with respect to the Galaxy and the properties of clusters defined by these axes are presented.

The Love of Large Numbers: A Popularity Bias in Consumer Choice.

PubMed

Powell, Derek; Yu, Jingqi; DeWolf, Melissa; Holyoak, Keith J

2017-10-01

Social learning-the ability to learn from observing the decisions of other people and the outcomes of those decisions-is fundamental to human evolutionary and cultural success. The Internet now provides social evidence on an unprecedented scale. However, properly utilizing this evidence requires a capacity for statistical inference. We examined how people's interpretation of online review scores is influenced by the numbers of reviews-a potential indicator both of an item's popularity and of the precision of the average review score. Our task was designed to pit statistical information against social information. We modeled the behavior of an "intuitive statistician" using empirical prior information from millions of reviews posted on Amazon.com and then compared the model's predictions with the behavior of experimental participants. Under certain conditions, people preferred a product with more reviews to one with fewer reviews even though the statistical model indicated that the latter was likely to be of higher quality than the former. Overall, participants' judgments suggested that they failed to make meaningful statistical inferences.

Statistical polarization in greenhouse gas emissions: Theory and evidence.

PubMed

Remuzgo, Lorena; Trueba, Carmen

2017-11-01

The current debate on climate change is over whether global warming can be limited in order to lessen its impacts. In this sense, evidence of a decrease in the statistical polarization in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could encourage countries to establish a stronger multilateral climate change agreement. Based on the interregional and intraregional components of the multivariate generalised entropy measures (Maasoumi, 1986), Gigliarano and Mosler (2009) proposed to study the statistical polarization concept from a multivariate view. In this paper, we apply this approach to study the evolution of such phenomenon in the global distribution of the main GHGs. The empirical analysis has been carried out for the time period 1990-2011, considering an endogenous grouping of countries (Aghevli and Mehran, 1981; Davies and Shorrocks, 1989). Most of the statistical polarization indices showed a slightly increasing pattern that was similar regardless of the number of groups considered. Finally, some policy implications are commented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Targeted versus statistical approaches to selecting parameters for modelling sediment provenance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laceby, J. Patrick

2017-04-01

One effective field-based approach to modelling sediment provenance is the source fingerprinting technique. Arguably, one of the most important steps for this approach is selecting the appropriate suite of parameters or fingerprints used to model source contributions. Accordingly, approaches to selecting parameters for sediment source fingerprinting will be reviewed. Thereafter, opportunities and limitations of these approaches and some future research directions will be presented. For properties to be effective tracers of sediment, they must discriminate between sources whilst behaving conservatively. Conservative behavior is characterized by constancy in sediment properties, where the properties of sediment sources remain constant, or at the very least, any variation in these properties should occur in a predictable and measurable way. Therefore, properties selected for sediment source fingerprinting should remain constant through sediment detachment, transportation and deposition processes, or vary in a predictable and measurable way. One approach to select conservative properties for sediment source fingerprinting is to identify targeted tracers, such as caesium-137, that provide specific source information (e.g. surface versus subsurface origins). A second approach is to use statistical tests to select an optimal suite of conservative properties capable of modelling sediment provenance. In general, statistical approaches use a combination of a discrimination (e.g. Kruskal Wallis H-test, Mann-Whitney U-test) and parameter selection statistics (e.g. Discriminant Function Analysis or Principle Component Analysis). The challenge is that modelling sediment provenance is often not straightforward and there is increasing debate in the literature surrounding the most appropriate approach to selecting elements for modelling. Moving forward, it would be beneficial if researchers test their results with multiple modelling approaches, artificial mixtures, and multiple lines of evidence to provide secondary support to their initial modelling results. Indeed, element selection can greatly impact modelling results and having multiple lines of evidence will help provide confidence when modelling sediment provenance.

The statistical evaluation of duct tape end match as physical evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Ka Lok

Duct tapes are often submitted to crime laboratories as evidence associated with abductions, homicides, or construction of explosive devices. As a result, trace evidence examiners are often asked to analyze and compare commercial duct tapes so that they can establish possible evidentiary links. Duct tape end matches are believed to be the strongest association between exemplar and question samples because they are considered as evidence with unique individual characteristics. While end match analysis and comparison have long been undertaken by trace evidence examiners, there is a significant lack of scientific research for associating two or more segments of duct tapes. This study is designed to obtain statistical inferences on the uniqueness of duct tape tears. Three experiments were devised to compile the basis for a statistical assessment of the probability of duct tape end matches along with a proposed error rate. In one experiment, we conducted the equivalent of 10,000 end match examinations with an error rate of 0%. In the second experiment, we performed 2,704 end match examinations having 0% error rate. In the third experiment, using duct tape by an Elmendorf Tear tester, we conducted 576 end match examinations with an error rate of 0% and having all samples correctly associated. The results of this study indicate that end matches are distinguishable among a single roll of duct tape and between two different rolls of duct tape having very similar surface features and weave pattern.

Longitudinal Assessment of Self-Reported Recent Back Pain and Combat Deployment in the Millennium Cohort Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-15

participants who were followed for the development of back pain for an average of 3.9 years. Methods. Descriptive statistics and longitudinal...health, military personnel, occupational health, outcome assessment, statistics, survey methodology . Level of Evidence: 3 Spine 2016;41:1754–1763ack...based on the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.21 Statistical Analysis Descriptive and univariate analyses compared character- istics

Engaging Diverse Students in Statistical Inquiry: A Comparison of Learning Experiences and Outcomes of Under-Represented and Non-Underrepresented Students Enrolled in a Multidisciplinary Project-Based Statistics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dierker, Lisa; Alexander, Jalen; Cooper, Jennifer L.; Selya, Arielle; Rose, Jennifer; Dasgupta, Nilanjana

2016-01-01

Introductory statistics needs innovative, evidence-based teaching practices that support and engage diverse students. To evaluate the success of a multidisciplinary, project-based course, we compared experiences of under-represented (URM) and non-underrepresented students in 4 years of the course. While URM students considered the material more…

Venus geology, geochemistry, and geophysics - Research results from the USSR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barsukov, V. L.; Basilevsky, A. T.; Volkov, V. P.; Zharkov, V. N.

The book includes papers on the Venusian volcanism, hot-spot structures, the Lakshmi phenomenon, tesserae, ridge belts on plains, impact craters, evidence on the crustal dichotomy, the global tectonic style, resurfacing, and Venusian igneous rocks. Special attention is given to volatiles in the atmosphere and crust, the expansion of topography into spherical harmonics, rotation, statistical properties of topography and the gravity field, a physical model of Venus, and models of the thermal evolution of Venus. Also presented are an atlas of Venusian surface images and a table listing topographic features on Venus and their coordinates.

Fractal model of polarization switching kinetics in ferroelectrics under nonequilibrium conditions of electron irradiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslovskaya, A. G.; Barabash, T. K.

2018-03-01

The paper presents the results of the fractal and multifractal analysis of polarization switching current in ferroelectrics under electron irradiation, which allows statistical memory effects to be estimated at dynamics of domain structure. The mathematical model of formation of electron beam-induced polarization current in ferroelectrics was suggested taking into account the fractal nature of domain structure dynamics. In order to realize the model the computational scheme was constructed using the numerical solution approximation of fractional differential equation. Evidences of electron beam-induced polarization switching process in ferroelectrics were specified at a variation of control model parameters.

Reconnection Dynamics and Mutual Friction in Quantum Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurie, Jason; Baggaley, Andrew W.

2015-07-01

We investigate the behaviour of the mutual friction force in finite temperature quantum turbulence in He, paying particular attention to the role of quantized vortex reconnections. Through the use of the vortex filament model, we produce three experimentally relevant types of vortex tangles in steady-state conditions, and examine through statistical analysis, how local properties of the tangle influence the mutual friction force. Finally, by monitoring reconnection events, we present evidence to indicate that vortex reconnections are the dominant mechanism for producing areas of high curvature and velocity leading to regions of high mutual friction, particularly for homogeneous and isotropic vortex tangles.

Data fraud in clinical trials

PubMed Central

George, Stephen L; Buyse, Marc

2015-01-01

Highly publicized cases of fabrication or falsification of data in clinical trials have occurred in recent years and it is likely that there are additional undetected or unreported cases. We review the available evidence on the incidence of data fraud in clinical trials, describe several prominent cases, present information on motivation and contributing factors and discuss cost-effective ways of early detection of data fraud as part of routine central statistical monitoring of data quality. Adoption of these clinical trial monitoring procedures can identify potential data fraud not detected by conventional on-site monitoring and can improve overall data quality. PMID:25729561

Unrealistic comparative optimism: An unsuccessful search for evidence of a genuinely motivational bias

PubMed Central

Harris, Adam J. L.; de Molière, Laura; Soh, Melinda; Hahn, Ulrike

2017-01-01

One of the most accepted findings across psychology is that people are unrealistically optimistic in their judgments of comparative risk concerning future life events—they judge negative events as less likely to happen to themselves than to the average person. Harris and Hahn (2011), however, demonstrated how unbiased (non-optimistic) responses can result in data patterns commonly interpreted as indicative of optimism due to statistical artifacts. In the current paper, we report the results of 5 studies that control for these statistical confounds and observe no evidence for residual unrealistic optimism, even observing a ‘severity effect’ whereby severe outcomes were overestimated relative to neutral ones (Studies 3 & 4). We conclude that there is no evidence supporting an optimism interpretation of previous results using the prevalent comparison method. PMID:28278200

Unrealistic comparative optimism: An unsuccessful search for evidence of a genuinely motivational bias.

PubMed

Harris, Adam J L; de Molière, Laura; Soh, Melinda; Hahn, Ulrike

2017-01-01

One of the most accepted findings across psychology is that people are unrealistically optimistic in their judgments of comparative risk concerning future life events-they judge negative events as less likely to happen to themselves than to the average person. Harris and Hahn (2011), however, demonstrated how unbiased (non-optimistic) responses can result in data patterns commonly interpreted as indicative of optimism due to statistical artifacts. In the current paper, we report the results of 5 studies that control for these statistical confounds and observe no evidence for residual unrealistic optimism, even observing a 'severity effect' whereby severe outcomes were overestimated relative to neutral ones (Studies 3 & 4). We conclude that there is no evidence supporting an optimism interpretation of previous results using the prevalent comparison method.

Decays of J/psi (3100) to baryon final states

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eaton, M.W.

We present results for the decays of psi(3100) into baryon and hyperon final states. The sample studied here consists of 1.3 million produced psi decays. The decays into nonstrange baryons agree well with currently established results, but with better statistics. In addition, significant resonance formation in multibody final states is observed. The decay psi ..-->.. anti pp..gamma.., the first direct photon decay of the psi involving baryons in the final state, is presented and the theoretical implications of the decays are briefly explored. Several new decays of the psi involving strange baryons are explored, including the first observations of threemore » body final states involving hyperons. The I-spin symmetry of the strong decay psi ..-->.. baryons has clearly been observed. The reduced matrix elements for psi ..-->.. B anti B are presented for final states of different SU(3) content. The B/sub 8/ anti B/sub 8/ results are in excellent agreement with the psi being an SU(3) singlet as are the results for psi ..-->.. B/sub 10/ anti B/sub 10/. We present the first evidence for the SU(3) violating decays of the type psi ..-->.. B/sub 8/ anti B/sub 10/ + c.c.. Angular distributions for psi ..-->.. B/sub 8/ anti B/sub 8/ are presented and compared with theoretical predictions. Statistics are limited, but the data tends to prefer other than a 1 + Cos/sup 2/theta distribution.« less

Thermal equilibrium and statistical thermometers in special relativity.

PubMed

Cubero, David; Casado-Pascual, Jesús; Dunkel, Jörn; Talkner, Peter; Hänggi, Peter

2007-10-26

There is an intense debate in the recent literature about the correct generalization of Maxwell's velocity distribution in special relativity. The most frequently discussed candidate distributions include the Jüttner function as well as modifications thereof. Here we report results from fully relativistic one-dimensional molecular dynamics simulations that resolve the ambiguity. The numerical evidence unequivocally favors the Jüttner distribution. Moreover, our simulations illustrate that the concept of "thermal equilibrium" extends naturally to special relativity only if a many-particle system is spatially confined. They make evident that "temperature" can be statistically defined and measured in an observer frame independent way.

Synthesizing evidence on complex interventions: how meta-analytical, qualitative, and mixed-method approaches can contribute.

PubMed

Petticrew, Mark; Rehfuess, Eva; Noyes, Jane; Higgins, Julian P T; Mayhew, Alain; Pantoja, Tomas; Shemilt, Ian; Sowden, Amanda

2013-11-01

Although there is increasing interest in the evaluation of complex interventions, there is little guidance on how evidence from complex interventions may be reviewed and synthesized, and the relevance of the plethora of evidence synthesis methods to complexity is unclear. This article aims to explore how different meta-analytical approaches can be used to examine aspects of complexity; describe the contribution of various narrative, tabular, and graphical approaches to synthesis; and give an overview of the potential choice of selected qualitative and mixed-method evidence synthesis approaches. The methodological discussions presented here build on a 2-day workshop held in Montebello, Canada, in January 2012, involving methodological experts from the Campbell and Cochrane Collaborations and from other international review centers (Anderson L, Petticrew M, Chandler J, et al. systematic reviews of complex interventions. In press). These systematic review methodologists discussed the broad range of existing methods and considered the relevance of these methods to reviews of complex interventions. The evidence from primary studies of complex interventions may be qualitative or quantitative. There is a wide range of methodological options for reviewing and presenting this evidence. Specific contributions of statistical approaches include the use of meta-analysis, meta-regression, and Bayesian methods, whereas narrative summary approaches provide valuable precursors or alternatives to these. Qualitative and mixed-method approaches include thematic synthesis, framework synthesis, and realist synthesis. A suitable combination of these approaches allows synthesis of evidence for understanding complex interventions. Reviewers need to consider which aspects of complex interventions should be a focus of their review and what types of quantitative and/or qualitative studies they will be including, and this will inform their choice of review methods. These may range from standard meta-analysis through to more complex mixed-method synthesis and synthesis approaches that incorporate theory and/or user's perspectives. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do non-targeted effects increase or decrease low dose risk in relation to the linear-non-threshold (LNT) model?☆

PubMed Central

Little, M.P.

2011-01-01

In this paper we review the evidence for departure from linearity for malignant and non-malignant disease and in the light of this assess likely mechanisms, and in particular the potential role for non-targeted effects. Excess cancer risks observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in many medically and occupationally exposed groups exposed at low or moderate doses are generally statistically compatible. For most cancer sites the dose–response in these groups is compatible with linearity over the range observed. The available data on biological mechanisms do not provide general support for the idea of a low dose threshold or hormesis. This large body of evidence does not suggest, indeed is not statistically compatible with, any very large threshold in dose for cancer, or with possible hormetic effects, and there is little evidence of the sorts of non-linearity in response implied by non-DNA-targeted effects. There are also excess risks of various types of non-malignant disease in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in other groups. In particular, elevated risks of cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease and digestive disease are observed in the A-bomb data. In contrast with cancer, there is much less consistency in the patterns of risk between the various exposed groups; for example, radiation-associated respiratory and digestive diseases have not been seen in these other (non-A-bomb) groups. Cardiovascular risks have been seen in many exposed populations, particularly in medically exposed groups, but in contrast with cancer there is much less consistency in risk between studies: risks per unit dose in epidemiological studies vary over at least two orders of magnitude, possibly a result of confounding and effect modification by well known (but unobserved) risk factors. In the absence of a convincing mechanistic explanation of epidemiological evidence that is, at present, less than persuasive, a cause-and-effect interpretation of the reported statistical associations for cardiovascular disease is unreliable but cannot be excluded. Inflammatory processes are the most likely mechanism by which radiation could modify the atherosclerotic disease process. If there is to be modification by low doses of ionizing radiation of cardiovascular disease through this mechanism, a role for non-DNA-targeted effects cannot be excluded. PMID:20105434

A retrospective survey of research design and statistical analyses in selected Chinese medical journals in 1998 and 2008.

PubMed

Jin, Zhichao; Yu, Danghui; Zhang, Luoman; Meng, Hong; Lu, Jian; Gao, Qingbin; Cao, Yang; Ma, Xiuqiang; Wu, Cheng; He, Qian; Wang, Rui; He, Jia

2010-05-25

High quality clinical research not only requires advanced professional knowledge, but also needs sound study design and correct statistical analyses. The number of clinical research articles published in Chinese medical journals has increased immensely in the past decade, but study design quality and statistical analyses have remained suboptimal. The aim of this investigation was to gather evidence on the quality of study design and statistical analyses in clinical researches conducted in China for the first decade of the new millennium. Ten (10) leading Chinese medical journals were selected and all original articles published in 1998 (N = 1,335) and 2008 (N = 1,578) were thoroughly categorized and reviewed. A well-defined and validated checklist on study design, statistical analyses, results presentation, and interpretation was used for review and evaluation. Main outcomes were the frequencies of different types of study design, error/defect proportion in design and statistical analyses, and implementation of CONSORT in randomized clinical trials. From 1998 to 2008: The error/defect proportion in statistical analyses decreased significantly ( = 12.03, p<0.001), 59.8% (545/1,335) in 1998 compared to 52.2% (664/1,578) in 2008. The overall error/defect proportion of study design also decreased ( = 21.22, p<0.001), 50.9% (680/1,335) compared to 42.40% (669/1,578). In 2008, design with randomized clinical trials remained low in single digit (3.8%, 60/1,578) with two-third showed poor results reporting (defects in 44 papers, 73.3%). Nearly half of the published studies were retrospective in nature, 49.3% (658/1,335) in 1998 compared to 48.2% (761/1,578) in 2008. Decreases in defect proportions were observed in both results presentation ( = 93.26, p<0.001), 92.7% (945/1,019) compared to 78.2% (1023/1,309) and interpretation ( = 27.26, p<0.001), 9.7% (99/1,019) compared to 4.3% (56/1,309), some serious ones persisted. Chinese medical research seems to have made significant progress regarding statistical analyses, but there remains ample room for improvement regarding study designs. Retrospective clinical studies are the most often used design, whereas randomized clinical trials are rare and often show methodological weaknesses. Urgent implementation of the CONSORT statement is imperative.

Graduate admissions in clinical neuropsychology: the importance of undergraduate training.

PubMed

Karazsia, Bryan T; Stavnezer, Amy Jo; Reeves, Jonathan W

2013-11-01

Discussions of and recommendations for the training of clinical neuropsychologists exist at the doctoral, internship, and post-doctoral level. With few exceptions, the literature on undergraduate preparations in clinical neuropsychology is sparse and lacks empirical evidence. In the present study, graduate-level faculty and current trainees completed surveys about graduate school preparations. Faculty expectations of minimum and ideal undergraduate training were highest for research methods, statistics, and assessment. Preferences for "goodness of fit" also emerged as important admissions factors. These results offer evidence for desirable undergraduate preparations for advanced study in clinical neuropsychology. Although undergraduate training in psychology is intentionally broad, results from this study suggest that students who desire advanced study in clinical neuropsychology need to tailor their experiences to be competitive in the application process. The findings have implications for prospective graduate students, faculty who train and mentor undergraduates, and faculty who serve on admissions committees.

A Bayesian paradigm for decision-making in proof-of-concept trials.

PubMed

Pulkstenis, Erik; Patra, Kaushik; Zhang, Jianliang

2017-01-01

Decision-making is central to every phase of drug development, and especially at the proof of concept stage where risk and evidence must be weighed carefully, often in the presence of significant uncertainty. The decision to proceed or not to large expensive Phase 3 trials has significant implications to both patients and sponsors alike. Recent experience has shown that Phase 3 failure rates remain high. We present a flexible Bayesian quantitative decision-making paradigm that evaluates evidence relative to achieving a multilevel target product profile. A framework for operating characteristics is provided that allows the drug developer to design a proof-of-concept trial in light of its ability to support decision-making rather than merely achieve statistical significance. Operating characteristics are shown to be superior to traditional p-value-based methods. In addition, discussion related to sample size considerations, application to interim futility analysis and incorporation of prior historical information is evaluated.

Evidence of a genetic link between endometriosis and ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Lee, Alice W; Templeman, Claire; Stram, Douglas A; Beesley, Jonathan; Tyrer, Jonathan; Berchuck, Andrew; Pharoah, Paul P; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Pearce, Celeste Leigh

2016-01-01

To evaluate whether endometriosis-associated genetic variation affects risk of ovarian cancer. Pooled genetic analysis. University hospital. Genetic data from 46,176 participants (15,361 ovarian cancer cases and 30,815 controls) from 41 ovarian cancer studies. None. Endometriosis-associated genetic variation and ovarian cancer. There was significant evidence of an association between endometriosis-related genetic variation and ovarian cancer risk, especially for the high-grade serous and clear cell histotypes. Overall we observed 15 significant burden statistics, which was three times more than expected. By focusing on candidate regions from a phenotype associated with ovarian cancer, we have shown a clear genetic link between endometriosis and ovarian cancer that warrants further follow-up. The functional significance of the identified regions and SNPs is presently uncertain, though future fine mapping and histotype-specific functional analyses may shed light on the etiologies of both gynecologic conditions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Evidence for e + e - → γ η c ( 1 S ) at center-of-mass energies between 4.01 and 4.60 GeV

DOE PAGES

Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Ahmed, S.; ...

2017-09-06

In this paper, we present first evidence for the process e +e - → γη c(1S) at six center-of-mass energies between 4.01 and 4.60 GeV using data collected by the BESIII experiment operating at BEPCII. We measure the Born cross section at each energy using a combination of twelve η c(1S) decay channels. We also combine all six energies under various assumptions for the energy-dependence of the cross section. Finally, if the process is assumed to proceed via the Y (4260), we measure a peak Born cross section σ peak (e +e - → γη c(1S)) = 2.11 ± 0.49(stat.)more » ± 0.36(syst.) pb with a statistical significance of 4.2σ.« less

Evidence for e + e - → γ η c ( 1 S ) at center-of-mass energies between 4.01 and 4.60 GeV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Ahmed, S.

In this paper, we present first evidence for the process e +e - → γη c(1S) at six center-of-mass energies between 4.01 and 4.60 GeV using data collected by the BESIII experiment operating at BEPCII. We measure the Born cross section at each energy using a combination of twelve η c(1S) decay channels. We also combine all six energies under various assumptions for the energy-dependence of the cross section. Finally, if the process is assumed to proceed via the Y (4260), we measure a peak Born cross section σ peak (e +e - → γη c(1S)) = 2.11 ± 0.49(stat.)more » ± 0.36(syst.) pb with a statistical significance of 4.2σ.« less

Communicating Scientific Findings to Lawyers, Policy-Makers, and the Public (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, W.; Velsko, S. P.

2013-12-01

This presentation will summarize the authors' collaborative research on inferential errors, bias and communication difficulties that have arisen in the area of WMD forensics. This research involves analysis of problems that have arisen in past national security investigations, interviews with scientists from various disciplines whose work has been used in WMD investigations, interviews with policy-makers, and psychological studies of lay understanding of forensic evidence. Implications of this research for scientists involved in nuclear explosion monitoring will be discussed. Among the issues covered will be: - Potential incompatibilities between the questions policy makers pose and the answers that experts can provide. - Common misunderstandings of scientific and statistical data. - Advantages and disadvantages of various methods for describing and characterizing the strength of scientific findings. - Problems that can arise from excessive hedging or, alternatively, insufficient qualification of scientific conclusions. - Problems that can arise from melding scientific and non-scientific evidence in forensic assessments.

Face-space architectures: evidence for the use of independent color-based features.

PubMed

Nestor, Adrian; Plaut, David C; Behrmann, Marlene

2013-07-01

The concept of psychological face space lies at the core of many theories of face recognition and representation. To date, much of the understanding of face space has been based on principal component analysis (PCA); the structure of the psychological space is thought to reflect some important aspects of a physical face space characterized by PCA applications to face images. In the present experiments, we investigated alternative accounts of face space and found that independent component analysis provided the best fit to human judgments of face similarity and identification. Thus, our results challenge an influential approach to the study of human face space and provide evidence for the role of statistically independent features in face encoding. In addition, our findings support the use of color information in the representation of facial identity, and we thus argue for the inclusion of such information in theoretical and computational constructs of face space.

The happiness–income paradox revisited

PubMed Central

Easterlin, Richard A.; McVey, Laura Angelescu; Switek, Malgorzata; Sawangfa, Onnicha; Zweig, Jacqueline Smith

2010-01-01

The striking thing about the happiness–income paradox is that over the long-term —usually a period of 10 y or more—happiness does not increase as a country's income rises. Heretofore the evidence for this was limited to developed countries. This article presents evidence that the long term nil relationship between happiness and income holds also for a number of developing countries, the eastern European countries transitioning from socialism to capitalism, and an even wider sample of developed countries than previously studied. It also finds that in the short-term in all three groups of countries, happiness and income go together, i.e., happiness tends to fall in economic contractions and rise in expansions. Recent critiques of the paradox, claiming the time series relationship between happiness and income is positive, are the result either of a statistical artifact or a confusion of the short-term relationship with the long-term one. PMID:21149705

Altered cortical anatomical networks in temporal lobe epilepsy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Bin; He, Huiguang; Lu, Jingjing; Li, Wenjing; Dai, Dai; Li, Meng; Jin, Zhengyu

2011-03-01

Temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) is one of the most common epilepsy syndromes with focal seizures generated in the left or right temporal lobes. With the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), many evidences have demonstrated that the abnormalities in hippocampal volume and the distributed atrophies in cortical cortex. However, few studies have investigated if TLE patients have the alternation in the structural networks. In the present study, we used the cortical thickness to establish the morphological connectivity networks, and investigated the network properties using the graph theoretical methods. We found that all the morphological networks exhibited the small-world efficiency in left TLE, right TLE and normal groups. And the betweenness centrality analysis revealed that there were statistical inter-group differences in the right uncus region. Since the right uncus located at the right temporal lobe, these preliminary evidences may suggest that there are topological alternations of the cortical anatomical networks in TLE, especially for the right TLE.

Remembrance of inferences past: Amortization in human hypothesis generation.

PubMed

Dasgupta, Ishita; Schulz, Eric; Goodman, Noah D; Gershman, Samuel J

2018-05-21

Bayesian models of cognition assume that people compute probability distributions over hypotheses. However, the required computations are frequently intractable or prohibitively expensive. Since people often encounter many closely related distributions, selective reuse of computations (amortized inference) is a computationally efficient use of the brain's limited resources. We present three experiments that provide evidence for amortization in human probabilistic reasoning. When sequentially answering two related queries about natural scenes, participants' responses to the second query systematically depend on the structure of the first query. This influence is sensitive to the content of the queries, only appearing when the queries are related. Using a cognitive load manipulation, we find evidence that people amortize summary statistics of previous inferences, rather than storing the entire distribution. These findings support the view that the brain trades off accuracy and computational cost, to make efficient use of its limited cognitive resources to approximate probabilistic inference. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The end of destitution: evidence from urban British working households 1904-37.

PubMed

Gazeley, Ian; Newell, Andrew

2012-01-01

We estimate the reduction, almost to elimination, of absolute poverty among working households in urban Britain between 1904 and 1937. We exploit two recently-digitized data sets. The paper presents a statistical generalization, to working families in the whole of urban Britain, of the poverty decline found in the town studies by, amongst other, Bowley and Rowntree. We offer corroborative evidence and perform a simulated decomposition of the poverty reduction into its proximate causes. The two most important causes were the rise, 1904–37, of about 30% in real wages on the one hand and the reduction of one-third in the number of people in the average household over the same period. Between them, these two changes imply a near doubling of the income per capita of an average household supported by a worker on the average wage. We conclude with a discussion of deeper causes.

Bat head contains soft magnetic particles: evidence from magnetism.

PubMed

Tian, Lanxiang; Lin, Wei; Zhang, Shuyi; Pan, Yongxin

2010-10-01

Recent behavioral observations have indicated that bats can sense the Earth's magnetic field. To unravel the magnetoreception mechanism, the present study has utilized magnetic measurements on three migratory species (Miniopterus fuliginosus, Chaerephon plicata, and Nyctalus plancyi) and three non-migratory species (Hipposideros armiger, Myotis ricketti, and Rhinolophus ferrumequinum). Room temperature isothermal remanent magnetization acquisition and alternating-field demagnetization showed that the bats' heads contain soft magnetic particles. Statistical analyses indicated that the saturation isothermal remanent magnetization of brains (SIRM(1T_brain)) of migratory species is higher than those of non-migratory species. Furthermore, the SIRM(1T_brain) of migratory bats is greater than their SIRM(1T_skull). Low-temperature magnetic measurements suggested that the magnetic particles are likely magnetite (Fe3O4). This new evidence supports the assumption that some bats use magnetite particles for sensing and orientation in the Earth's magnetic field.

Statistics Anxiety Update: Refining the Construct and Recommendations for a New Research Agenda.

PubMed

Chew, Peter K H; Dillon, Denise B

2014-03-01

Appreciation of the importance of statistics literacy for citizens of a democracy has resulted in an increasing number of degree programs making statistics courses mandatory for university students. Unfortunately, empirical evidence suggests that students in nonmathematical disciplines (e.g., social sciences) regard statistics courses as the most anxiety-inducing course in their degree programs. Although a literature review exists for statistics anxiety, it was done more than a decade ago, and newer studies have since added findings for consideration. In this article, we provide a current review of the statistics anxiety literature. Specifically, related variables, definitions, and measures of statistics anxiety are reviewed with the goal of refining the statistics anxiety construct. Antecedents, effects, and interventions of statistics anxiety are also reviewed to provide recommendations for statistics instructors and for a new research agenda. © The Author(s) 2014.

Machines that go "ping" may improve balance but may not improve mobility or reduce risk of falls: a systematic review.

PubMed

Dennett, Amy M; Taylor, Nicholas F

2015-01-01

To determine the effectiveness of computer-based electronic devices that provide feedback in improving mobility and balance and reducing falls. Randomized controlled trials were searched from the earliest available date to August 2013. Standardized mean differences were used to complete meta-analyses, with statistical heterogeneity being described with the I-squared statistic. The GRADE approach was used to summarize the level of evidence for each completed meta-analysis. Risk of bias for individual trials was assessed with the (Physiotherapy Evidence Database) PEDro scale. Thirty trials were included. There was high-quality evidence that computerized devices can improve dynamic balance in people with a neurological condition compared with no therapy. There was low-to-moderate-quality evidence that computerized devices have no significant effect on mobility, falls efficacy and falls risk in community-dwelling older adults, and people with a neurological condition compared with physiotherapy. There is high-quality evidence that computerized devices that provide feedback may be useful in improving balance in people with neurological conditions compared with no therapy, but there is a lack of evidence supporting more meaningful changes in mobility and falls risk.

The point system for driver license administration : a viable alternative for Virginia?.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1972-01-01

Traffic safety research was noted to have been unable to produce any empirical evidence that the introduction of a point system would affect, either negatively or positively, traffic accident statistics. In view of this absence of evidence, the simil...

An evidence-based systematic review of gymnema (Gymnema sylvestre R. Br.) by the Natural Standard Research Collaboration.

PubMed

Ulbricht, Catherine; Abrams, Tracee Rae; Basch, Ethan; Davies-Heerema, Theresa; Foppa, Ivo; Hammerness, Paul; Rusie, Erica; Tanguay-Colucci, Shaina; Taylor, Sarah; Ulbricht, Catherine; Varghese, Minney; Weissner, Wendy; Woods, Jen

2011-09-01

An evidence-based systematic review of gymnema (Gymnema sylvestre R. Br.), including written and statistical analysis of scientific literature, expert opinion, folkloric precedent, history, pharmacology, kinetics/dynamics, interactions, adverse effects, toxicology, and dosing.

[Congresses of the Spanish Association of Pediatrics: bibliometric analysis as a springboard for debate].

PubMed

González de Dios, J; Paredes Cencillo, C

2004-12-01

Congresses are periodic meetings that are required to make known and discuss advances in the various fields of medicine. Bibliometric indicators are important tools used to determine the quality of scientific publications. However, this type of study is infrequently performed in free communications of congresses. A bibliometric study of all the free communications published in the congresses of the Spanish Association of Pediatrics over 4 years, divided in two periods (1996-1997 and 2000-2001) (n = 2677) was performed. Bibliometric indicators were classified into quantitative (productivity), qualitative (statistical accessibility) and scientific evidence. Quantitative indicators: There were 928 free communications in 1996, 681 in 1997, 560 in 2000, and 508 in 2001. Eighty-eight percent were in poster format and 87 % were in structured format. There was a median of six authors per communication. The main subject areas were infectology, neonatology, hemato-oncology, neurology and endocrinology. Ninety-five per cent of communications were signed by hospitals with a marked contribution by hospitals in Andalusia and Madrid. Qualitative indicators: Statistical accessibility < 2 in 86 % and > 7 in 2.9 %. Scientific evidence indicators: The quality of scientific evidence was good in only 1 % and was average in 9 %, since 90 % of all the studies were descriptive (mainly clinical cases). Evidence-based methodological concepts were used in only 1.9 %. Compared with 1996-1997, in 2000-2001 there were fewer communications, more posters, and more structured communications, as well as greater statistical accessibility and better scientific evidence indicators, but these differences were not statistically significant. Bibliometric study of the congresses of the Spanish Association of Pediatrics is a good starting point to analyze the quality of pediatric meetings and discuss possible solutions: a rigorous scientific committee with quality criteria, more analytical and/or experimental studies and fewer descriptive studies (especially clinical cases); restricting the number of authors per communication, greater collaboration with epidemiologists and/or biostatisticians, and favoring structured communications would also improve quality.

Hispanics in the Criminal Justice System--the "Nonexistent" Problem.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mandel, Jerry

1979-01-01

Though hidden from view by being considered "non-existent", the meager evidence indicates that Hispanics have an unusually high arrest and incarceration rate. Hispanic background is rarely asked on the six major sources of criminal justice statistics--statistics of arrests, courts, prisoners, juvenile delinquency, crime victimization, and public…

The Surprisingly Modest Relationship between SES and Educational Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harwell, Michael; Maeda, Yukiko; Bishop, Kyoungwon; Xie, Aolin

2017-01-01

Measures of socioeconomic status (SES) are routinely used in analyses of achievement data to increase statistical power, statistically control for the effects of SES, and enhance causality arguments under the premise that the SES-achievement relationship is moderate to strong. Empirical evidence characterizing the strength of the SES-achievement…

Assessing the Impact of Group Projects on Examination Performance in Social Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delucchi, Michael

2007-01-01

College teachers in the sciences and professional studies have endorsed collaborative learning group strategies for teaching undergraduate statistics courses, but few researchers provide empirical evidence that students' quantitative skills actually increase as a result of the collaborative experience. Assessment of the efficacy of collaborative…

Flipping the Classroom and Student Performance in Advanced Statistics: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Touchton, Michael

2015-01-01

I administer a quasi-experiment using undergraduate political science majors in statistics classes to evaluate whether "flipping the classroom" (the treatment) alters students' applied problem-solving performance and satisfaction relative to students in a traditional classroom environment (the control). I also assess whether general…

Measuring University Students' Approaches to Learning Statistics: An Invariance Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chiesi, Francesca; Primi, Caterina; Bilgin, Ayse Aysin; Lopez, Maria Virginia; del Carmen Fabrizio, Maria; Gozlu, Sitki; Tuan, Nguyen Minh

2016-01-01

The aim of the current study was to provide evidence that an abbreviated version of the Approaches and Study Skills Inventory for Students (ASSIST) was invariant across different languages and educational contexts in measuring university students' learning approaches to statistics. Data were collected on samples of university students attending…

Teaching Primary School Mathematics and Statistics: Evidence-Based Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Averill, Robin; Harvey, Roger

2010-01-01

Here is the only reference book you will ever need for teaching primary school mathematics and statistics. It is full of exciting and engaging snapshots of excellent classroom practice relevant to "The New Zealand Curriculum" and national mathematics standards. There are many fascinating examples of investigative learning experiences,…

A Psychophysiological Study of Processing HIV/AIDS Public Service Announcements: The Effects of Novelty Appeals, Sexual Appeals, Narrative Versus Statistical Evidence, and Viewer's Sex.

PubMed

Zhang, Jueman Mandy; Chen, Gina Masullo; Chock, T Makana; Wang, Yi; Ni, Liqiang; Schweisberger, Valarie

2016-07-01

This study used self-reports and physiological measures-heart rate (HR) and skin conductance level (SCL)-to examine the effects of novelty appeals, sexual appeals, narrative versus statistical evidence, and viewer's sex on cognitive and emotional processing of HIV/AIDS public service announcements (PSAs) among heterosexually active single college students. Novelty or sexual appeals differently affected self-reported attention and cognitive effort as measured by HR. High- rather than low-novelty HIV/AIDS PSAs, perceived as more attention-eliciting, did not lead to more cognitive effort. High- rather than low-sex HIV/AIDS PSAs, not perceived as more attention-eliciting, led to more cognitive effort as reflected by greater HR deceleration. Novelty or sexual appeals also affected self-reported emotional arousal and SCL differently. HIV/AIDS PSAs with high rather than low levels of novelty or sexual appeals led to greater self-reported arousal, but not greater SCL. Message evidence interacted with message appeals to affect cognitive effort. Participants exerted greater cognitive effort during high- rather than low-novelty narrative HIV/AIDS PSAs, and during low- rather than high-novelty statistical ones. The advantage of high over low sexual appeals was more obvious in statistical than in narrative HIV/AIDS PSAs. Males reported greater emotional arousal than females during high- rather than low-sex HIV/AIDS PSAs.

An exploratory study identifying where local government public health decision makers source their evidence for policy.

PubMed

Stoneham, Melissa; Dodds, James

2014-08-01

The Western Australian (WA) Public Health Bill will replace the antiquated Health Act 1911. One of the proposed clauses of the Bill requires all WA local governments to develop a Public Health Plan. The Bill states that Public Health Plans should be based on evidence from all levels, including national and statewide priorities, community needs, local statistical evidence, and stakeholder data. This exploratory study, which targeted 533 WA local government officers, aimed to identify the sources of evidence used to generate the list of public health risks to be included in local government Public Health Plans. The top four sources identified for informing local policy were: observation of the consequences of the risks in the local community (24.5%), statewide evidence (17.6%), local evidence (17.6%) and coverage in local media (16.2%). This study confirms that both hard and soft data are used to inform policy decisions at the local level. Therefore, the challenge that this study has highlighted is in the definition or constitution of evidence. SO WHAT? Evidence is critical to the process of sound policy development. This study highlights issues associated with what actually constitutes evidence in the policy development process at the local government level. With the exception of those who work in an extremely narrow field, it is difficult for local government officers, whose role includes policymaking, to read the vast amount of information that has been published in their area of expertise. For those who are committed to the notion of evidence-based policymaking, as advocated within the WA Public Health Bill, this presents a considerable challenge.

Invited Commentary: The Need for Cognitive Science in Methodology.

PubMed

Greenland, Sander

2017-09-15

There is no complete solution for the problem of abuse of statistics, but methodological training needs to cover cognitive biases and other psychosocial factors affecting inferences. The present paper discusses 3 common cognitive distortions: 1) dichotomania, the compulsion to perceive quantities as dichotomous even when dichotomization is unnecessary and misleading, as in inferences based on whether a P value is "statistically significant"; 2) nullism, the tendency to privilege the hypothesis of no difference or no effect when there is no scientific basis for doing so, as when testing only the null hypothesis; and 3) statistical reification, treating hypothetical data distributions and statistical models as if they reflect known physical laws rather than speculative assumptions for thought experiments. As commonly misused, null-hypothesis significance testing combines these cognitive problems to produce highly distorted interpretation and reporting of study results. Interval estimation has so far proven to be an inadequate solution because it involves dichotomization, an avenue for nullism. Sensitivity and bias analyses have been proposed to address reproducibility problems (Am J Epidemiol. 2017;186(6):646-647); these methods can indeed address reification, but they can also introduce new distortions via misleading specifications for bias parameters. P values can be reframed to lessen distortions by presenting them without reference to a cutoff, providing them for relevant alternatives to the null, and recognizing their dependence on all assumptions used in their computation; they nonetheless require rescaling for measuring evidence. I conclude that methodological development and training should go beyond coverage of mechanistic biases (e.g., confounding, selection bias, measurement error) to cover distortions of conclusions produced by statistical methods and psychosocial forces. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Expected Monotonicity – A Desirable Property for Evidence Measures?

PubMed Central

Hodge, Susan E.; Vieland, Veronica J.

2010-01-01

We consider here the principle of ‘evidential consistency’ – that as one gathers more data, any well-behaved evidence measure should, in some sense, approach the true answer. Evidential consistency is essential for the genome-scan design (GWAS or linkage), where one selects the most promising locus(i) for follow-up, expecting that new data will increase evidence for the correct hypothesis. Earlier work [Vieland, Hum Hered 2006;61:144–156] showed that many popular statistics do not satisfy this principle; Vieland concluded that the problem stems from fundamental difficulties in how we measure evidence and argued for determining criteria to evaluate evidence measures. Here, we investigate in detail one proposed consistency criterion – expected monotonicity (ExpM) – for a simple statistical model (binomial) and four likelihood ratio (LR)-based evidence measures. We show that, with one limited exception, none of these measures displays ExpM; what they do display is sometimes counterintuitive. We conclude that ExpM is not a reasonable requirement for evidence measures; moreover, no requirement based on expected values seems feasible. We demonstrate certain desirable properties of the simple LR and demonstrate a connection between the simple and integrated LRs. We also consider an alternative version of consistency, which is satisfied by certain forms of the integrated LR and posterior probability of linkage. PMID:20664208

Refining knowledge, attitude and practice of evidence-based medicine (EBM) among pharmacy students for professional challenges.

PubMed

Abu-Gharbieh, Eman; Khalidi, Doaa Al; Baig, Mirza R; Khan, Saeed A

2015-04-01

Practicing evidence based medicine (EBM) is a professional need for the future clinical pharmacist in UAE and around the world. An attempt was made to evaluate pharmacy student's knowledge, attitude and proficiency in the practice of EBM. A within-subject study design with pre and post survey and skill test were conducted using case based practice of EBM through a validated questionnaire. The results were tabulated and there was a statistically significant increase in pharmacy students' perceived ability to go through steps of EBM, namely: formulating PICO questions (95.3%), searching for evidence (97%), appraising the evidence (81%), understanding statistics (78.1%), and applying evidence at point of care (81.2%). In this study, workshops and (Problem Based Learning) PBLs were used as a module of EBM teaching and practices, which has been shown to be an effective educational method in terms of improving students' skills, knowledge and attitude toward EBM. Incorporating hands on experience, PBLs will become an impetus for developing EBM skills and critical appraisal of research evidence alongside routine clinical practice. This integration would constitute the cornerstone in lifting EBM in UAE up to the needed standards and would enable pharmacy students to become efficient pharmacists that rely on evidence in their health practice.

Evidence from prospective cohort studies does not support current dietary fat guidelines: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Harcombe, Zoë; Baker, Julien S; Davies, Bruce

2017-12-01

National dietary guidelines were introduced in 1977 and 1983, by the US and UK governments to reduce coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality by reducing dietary fat intake. Our 2016 systematic review examined the epidemiological evidence available to the dietary committees at the time; we found no support for the recommendations to restrict dietary fat. The present investigation extends our work by re-examining the totality of epidemiological evidence currently available relating to dietary fat guidelines. A systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies currently available, which examined the relationship between dietary fat, serum cholesterol and the development of CHD, were undertaken. Across 7 studies, involving 89 801 participants (94% male), there were 2024 deaths from CHD during the mean follow-up of 11.9±5.6 years. The death rate from CHD was 2.25%. Eight data sets were suitable for inclusion in meta-analysis; all excluded participants with previous heart disease. Risk ratios (RRs) from meta-analysis were not statistically significant for CHD deaths and total or saturated fat consumption. The RR from meta-analysis for total fat intake and CHD deaths was 1.04 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.10). The RR from meta-analysis for saturated fat intake and CHD deaths was 1.08 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.25). Epidemiological evidence to date found no significant difference in CHD mortality and total fat or saturated fat intake and thus does not support the present dietary fat guidelines. The evidence per se lacks generalisability for population-wide guidelines. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Influence of heat and moisture exchanger respiratory load on transcutaneous oxygenation in laryngectomized individuals: a randomized crossover study.

PubMed

Zuur, J Karel; Muller, Sara H; Sinaasappel, Michiel; Hart, Guus A M; van Zandwijk, Nico; Hilgers, Frans J M

2007-12-01

High-resistance heat and moisture exchangers (HMEs) have been reported to increase transcutaneous oxygenation (tcpO(2)) values in laryngectomized individuals and to negatively influence patient compliance. The goal of the present study was to validate earlier published results on short-term transcutaneous oxygenation changes by high-resistance HMEs. We conducted a randomized crossover study, monitoring the influence of an HME on tcpO(2) over a 2-hour time interval in 20 subjects. No evidence of an immediate HME effect (95% CI: -14.9-13.3 mm Hg, p = .91), or a time-dependent HME effect (95% CI: -.121 - .172 mm Hg/minute, p = .74), on tcpO(2) was found. After fitting the statistical model without time dependency, again no evidence of HME presence was seen (95% CI: -.5 mm Hg - 3.6 mm Hg, p = .15). In contrast to earlier suggestions, there is no evidence of increased tcpO(2) levels by high-resistance HMEs in laryngectomized individuals. Thus, using such HMEs has no added clinical value in this respect.

Balneotherapy (or spa therapy) for rheumatoid arthritis. An abridged version of Cochrane Systematic Review.

PubMed

Verhagen, A P; Bierma-Zeinstra, S M; Boers, M; Cardoso, J R; Lambeck, J; De Bie, R; De Vet, H C

2015-12-01

Treatment options for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) include pharmacological interventions, physical therapy treatments and balneotherapy. To evaluate the benefits and harms of balneotherapy in patients with RA. A systematic review. Studies were eligible if they were randomised controlled trials consisting of participants with definitive or classical RA. We searched various databases up to December 2014. Balneotherapy had to be the intervention under study, and had to be compared with another intervention or with no intervention. We considered pain, improvement, disability, tender joints, swollen joints and adverse events among the main outcome measures. We excluded studies when only laboratory variables were reported as outcome measures. Two review authors independently selected trials, performed data extraction and assessed risk of bias. This review includes nine studies involving 579 participants. Most studies showed an unclear risk of bias in most domains. We found no statistically significant differences on pain or improvement between mudpacks versus placebo (1 study; N.=45; hand RA; very low level of evidence). As for the effectiveness of additional radon in carbon dioxide baths, we found no statistically significant differences between groups for all outcomes at three-month follow-up (2 studies; N.=194; low to moderate level of evidence). We noted some benefit of additional radon at six months in pain (moderate level of evidence). One study (N.=148) compared balneotherapy (seated immersion) versus hydrotherapy (exercises in water), land exercises or relaxation therapy. We found no statistically significant differences in pain or in physical disability (very low level of evidence) between groups. We found no statistically significant differences in pain intensity at eight weeks, but some benefit of mineral baths in overall improvement at eight weeks compared to Cyclosporin A (1 study; N.=57; low level of evidence). Overall evidence is insufficient to show that balneotherapy is more effective than no treatment; that one type of bath is more effective than another or that one type of bath is more effective than exercise or relaxation therapy. We were not able to assess any clinical relevant impact of balneotherapy over placebo, no treatment or other treatments.

Tropical Convective Transition Statistics and Causality in the Water Vapor–Precipitation Relation

DOE PAGES

Kuo, Yi-Hung; Neelin, J. David; Mechoso, C. Roberto

2017-03-09

Previous work by various authors has pointed to the role of lower-free-tropospheric humidity in affecting the onset of deep convection in the tropics. Empirical relationships between column water vapor (CWV) and precipitation have been inferred to result from these effects. Evidence from previous work has included deep convective conditional instability calculations for entraining plumes, in which the lower-free-tropospheric environment affects the onset of deep convection due to the differential impact on buoyancy of turbulent entrainment of dry versus moist air. The relationship between deep convection and water vapor is, however, a two-way interaction because convection also moistens the free troposphere.more » The present study adds an additional line of evidence toward fully establishing the causality of the precipitation–water vapor relationship. Parameter perturbation experiments using the coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) with high-time-resolution output are analyzed for a set of statistics for the transition to deep convection, coordinated with observational diagnostics for the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) campaign and tropical western Pacific Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites. For low values of entrainment in the deep convective scheme, these statistics are radically altered and the observed pickup of precipitation with CWV is no longer seen. In addition to helping cement the dominant direction of causality in the fast-time-scale precipitation–CWV relationship, the results point to impacts of entrainment on the climatology. Because at low entrainment convection can fire before tropospheric moistening, the climatological values of relative humidity are lower than observed. These findings can be consequential to biases in simulated climate and to projections of climate change.« less

Tropical Convective Transition Statistics and Causality in the Water Vapor–Precipitation Relation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuo, Yi-Hung; Neelin, J. David; Mechoso, C. Roberto

Previous work by various authors has pointed to the role of lower-free-tropospheric humidity in affecting the onset of deep convection in the tropics. Empirical relationships between column water vapor (CWV) and precipitation have been inferred to result from these effects. Evidence from previous work has included deep convective conditional instability calculations for entraining plumes, in which the lower-free-tropospheric environment affects the onset of deep convection due to the differential impact on buoyancy of turbulent entrainment of dry versus moist air. The relationship between deep convection and water vapor is, however, a two-way interaction because convection also moistens the free troposphere.more » The present study adds an additional line of evidence toward fully establishing the causality of the precipitation–water vapor relationship. Parameter perturbation experiments using the coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) with high-time-resolution output are analyzed for a set of statistics for the transition to deep convection, coordinated with observational diagnostics for the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) campaign and tropical western Pacific Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites. For low values of entrainment in the deep convective scheme, these statistics are radically altered and the observed pickup of precipitation with CWV is no longer seen. In addition to helping cement the dominant direction of causality in the fast-time-scale precipitation–CWV relationship, the results point to impacts of entrainment on the climatology. Because at low entrainment convection can fire before tropospheric moistening, the climatological values of relative humidity are lower than observed. These findings can be consequential to biases in simulated climate and to projections of climate change.« less

Quality of water in the upper Ohio River basin and at Erie, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewis, Samuel James

1906-01-01

This paper discusses the quality of water on the most important tributaries of Ohio River in Pennsylvania, New York, West Virginia, and Maryland, and the nature of the water supply at Erie, Pa. The amount and character of the pollution is described and the results of drinking contaminated water as shown by typhoid statistics are indicated. The conditions on the tributaries of Ohio River in Ohio are discussed in Water-Supply and Irrigation Paper No. 79, United States Geological Survey, pages 129-187. The water supplies and sewerage of small towns high up toward the head of a large drainage system do not in many cases receive the attention they should. Epidemics of a waterborne disease which affect large municipalities near the mouth of the river and therefore attract attention must necessarily have their origin in the pollution of the watershed above. It is evident, therefore, that adequate sanitation of the small towns and a water supply as carefully guarded as that of a large city would prevent disease at its very source and be far less expensive than the costly battles which are waged against epidemics in huge centers of population after disease has broken out. Typhoid fever statistics for small towns in this section are seldom available and are more or less unreliable at best. The few figures given show the existence of virulent typhoid fever in most towns of the drainage areas in certain years, and as these towns drain into the streams the liability ofthe water to infection is evident. The significance of typhoid fever death rates will be better understood from the statistics presented below, which have been collated from a number of cities having excellent water supplies.

Mindfulness for palliative care patients. Systematic review.

PubMed

Latorraca, Carolina de Oliveira Cruz; Martimbianco, Ana Luiza Cabrera; Pachito, Daniela Vianna; Pacheco, Rafael Leite; Riera, Rachel

2017-12-01

Nineteen million adults worldwide are in need of palliative care. Of those who have access to it, 80% fail to receive an efficient management of symptoms. To assess the effectiveness and safety of mindfulness meditation for palliative care patients. We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, PEDro, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Opengrey, ClinicalTrials.gov and WHO-ICTRP. No restriction of language, status or date of publication was applied. We considered randomised clinical trials (RCTs) comparing any mindfulness meditation scheme vs any comparator for palliative care. Cochrane Risk of Bias (Rob) Table was used for assessing methodological quality of RCTs. Screening, data extraction and methodological assessments were performed by two reviewers. Mean differences (MD) (confidence intervals of 95% (CI 95%)) were considered for estimating effect size. Quality of evidence was appraised by GRADE. Four RCTs, 234 participants, were included. All studies presented high risk of bias in at least one RoB table criteria. We assessed 4 comparisons, but only 2 studies showed statistically significant difference for at least one outcome. 1. Mindfulness meditation (eight weeks, one session/week, daily individual practice) vs control: statistically significant difference in favour of control for quality of life - physical aspects. 2. Mindfulness meditation (single 5-minute session) vs control: benefit in favour of mindfulness for stress outcome in both time-points. None of the included studies analysed safety and harms outcomes. Although two studies have showed statistically significant difference, only one showed effectiveness of mindfulness meditation in improving perceived stress. This study focused on one single session of mindfulness of 5 minutes for adult cancer patients in palliative care, but it was considered as possessing high risk of bias. Other schemes of mindfulness meditation did not show benefit in any outcome evaluated (low and very low quality evidence). © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Response of feline eosinophilic plaques and lip ulcers to amoxicillin trihydrate-clavulanate potassium therapy: a randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled prospective study.

PubMed

Wildermuth, Brett E; Griffin, Craig E; Rosenkrantz, Wayne S

2012-04-01

In this study, we evaluated the treatment of feline eosinophilic plaques and lip ulcers with amoxicillin trihydrate-potassium clavulanate (Clavamox(®); Pfizer Animal Health). Nineteen cats with clinical and cytological findings consistent with eosinophilic plaques and/or lip ulcers were enrolled. Lesions were photographed and their areas measured in square centimetres before and after 21 days of therapy with either flavoured amoxicillin-clavulanate suspension or flavoured placebo suspension. Sixteen cats completed the study, with nine plaque lesions (four treatment and five placebo) and eight lip ulcer lesions (four treatment and four placebo) included in the analysis. All lesions were shown to have infection, with bacterial phagocytosis present on cytological examination. Coagulase-positive staphylococci were the most commonly isolated bacteria. The amoxicillin-clavulanate-treated eosinophilic plaque group had a statistically significant 96.2% reduction in mean lesion size (-7.60 cm(2), P = 0.0078) and an 80% reduction in mean percentage of microscopic fields demonstrating evidence of bacterial infection (P < 0.0001), whereas the placebo group did not. The amoxicillin-clavulanate-treated lip ulcer group had a 42.6% decrease in mean lesion size (-0.25 cm(2), P = 0.4125) and the placebo group a 36.6% increase (+0.49 cm(2), P = 0.1575), although neither change was statistically significant. The amoxicillin-clavulanate-treated lip ulcer group had a statistically significant 65.0% reduction in mean percentage of microscopic fields demonstrating evidence of bacterial infection (P < 0.0001), while no significant reduction was observed in the placebo group. A suspension of amoxicillin trihydrate-potassium clavulanate is an effective monotherapy for the treatment of feline eosinophilic plaques. © 2011 The Authors. Veterinary Dermatology. © 2011 ESVD and ACVD.

Electrophysiological evidence of statistical learning of long-distance dependencies in 8-month-old preterm and full-term infants.

PubMed

Kabdebon, C; Pena, M; Buiatti, M; Dehaene-Lambertz, G

2015-09-01

Using electroencephalography, we examined 8-month-old infants' ability to discover a systematic dependency between the first and third syllables of successive words, concatenated into a monotonous speech stream, and to subsequently generalize this regularity to new items presented in isolation. Full-term and preterm infants, while exposed to the stream, displayed a significant entrainment (phase-locking) to the syllabic and word frequencies, demonstrating that they were sensitive to the word unit. The acquisition of the systematic dependency defining words was confirmed by the significantly different neural responses to rule-words and part-words subsequently presented during the test phase. Finally, we observed a correlation between syllabic entrainment during learning and the difference in phase coherence between the test conditions (rule-words vs part-words) suggesting that temporal processing of the syllable unit might be crucial in linguistic learning. No group difference was observed suggesting that non-adjacent statistical computations are already robust at 8 months, even in preterm infants, and thus develop during the first year of life, earlier than expected from behavioral studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Helioseismology of pre-emerging active regions. III. Statistical analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnes, G.; Leka, K. D.; Braun, D. C.

The subsurface properties of active regions (ARs) prior to their appearance at the solar surface may shed light on the process of AR formation. Helioseismic holography has been applied to samples taken from two populations of regions on the Sun (pre-emergence and without emergence), each sample having over 100 members, that were selected to minimize systematic bias, as described in Paper I. Paper II showed that there are statistically significant signatures in the average helioseismic properties that precede the formation of an AR. This paper describes a more detailed analysis of the samples of pre-emergence regions and regions without emergencemore » based on discriminant analysis. The property that is best able to distinguish the populations is found to be the surface magnetic field, even a day before the emergence time. However, after accounting for the correlations between the surface field and the quantities derived from helioseismology, there is still evidence of a helioseismic precursor to AR emergence that is present for at least a day prior to emergence, although the analysis presented cannot definitively determine the subsurface properties prior to emergence due to the small sample sizes.« less

Advanced electrical current measurements of microdischarges: evidence of sub-critical pulses and ion currents in barrier discharge in air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Synek, Petr; Zemánek, Miroslav; Kudrle, Vít; Hoder, Tomáš

2018-04-01

Electrical current measurements in corona or barrier microdischarges are a challenge as they require both high temporal resolution and a large dynamic range of the current probe used. In this article, we apply a simple self-assembled current probe and compare it to commercial ones. An analysis in the time and frequency domain is carried out. Moreover, an improved methodology is presented, enabling both temporal resolution in sub-nanosecond times and current sensitivity in the order of tens of micro-amperes. Combining this methodology with a high-tech oscilloscope and self-developed software, a unique statistical analysis of currents in volume barrier discharge driven in atmospheric-pressure air is made for over 80 consecutive periods of a 15 kHz applied voltage. We reveal the presence of repetitive sub-critical current pulses and conclude that these can be identified with the discharging of surface charge microdomains. Moreover, extremely low, long-lasting microsecond currents were detected which are caused by ion flow, and are analysed in detail. The statistical behaviour presented gives deeper insight into the discharge physics of these usually undetectable current signals.

The Promises and Pitfalls of Genoeconomics*

PubMed Central

Benjamin, Daniel J.; Cesarini, David; Chabris, Christopher F.; Glaeser, Edward L.; Laibson, David I.; Guðnason, Vilmundur; Harris, Tamara B.; Launer, Lenore J.; Purcell, Shaun; Smith, Albert Vernon; Johannesson, Magnus; Magnusson, Patrik K.E.; Beauchamp, Jonathan P.; Christakis, Nicholas A.; Atwood, Craig S.; Hebert, Benjamin; Freese, Jeremy; Hauser, Robert M.; Hauser, Taissa S.; Grankvist, Alexander; Hultman, Christina M.; Lichtenstein, Paul

2012-01-01

This article reviews existing research at the intersection of genetics and economics, presents some new findings that illustrate the state of genoeconomics research, and surveys the prospects of this emerging field. Twin studies suggest that economic outcomes and preferences, once corrected for measurement error, appear to be about as heritable as many medical conditions and personality traits. Consistent with this pattern, we present new evidence on the heritability of permanent income and wealth. Turning to genetic association studies, we survey the main ways that the direct measurement of genetic variation across individuals is likely to contribute to economics, and we outline the challenges that have slowed progress in making these contributions. The most urgent problem facing researchers in this field is that most existing efforts to find associations between genetic variation and economic behavior are based on samples that are too small to ensure adequate statistical power. This has led to many false positives in the literature. We suggest a number of possible strategies to improve and remedy this problem: (a) pooling data sets, (b) using statistical techniques that exploit the greater information content of many genes considered jointly, and (c) focusing on economically relevant traits that are most proximate to known biological mechanisms. PMID:23482589

The Virtual Quake Earthquake Simulator: Earthquake Probability Statistics for the El Mayor-Cucapah Region and Evidence of Predictability in Simulated Earthquake Sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, K.; Yoder, M. R.; Heien, E. M.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.; Parker, J. W.; Donnellan, A.

2015-12-01

We introduce a framework for developing earthquake forecasts using Virtual Quake (VQ), the generalized successor to the perhaps better known Virtual California (VC) earthquake simulator. We discuss the basic merits and mechanics of the simulator, and we present several statistics of interest for earthquake forecasting. We also show that, though the system as a whole (in aggregate) behaves quite randomly, (simulated) earthquake sequences limited to specific fault sections exhibit measurable predictability in the form of increasing seismicity precursory to large m > 7 earthquakes. In order to quantify this, we develop an alert based forecasting metric similar to those presented in Keilis-Borok (2002); Molchan (1997), and show that it exhibits significant information gain compared to random forecasts. We also discuss the long standing question of activation vs quiescent type earthquake triggering. We show that VQ exhibits both behaviors separately for independent fault sections; some fault sections exhibit activation type triggering, while others are better characterized by quiescent type triggering. We discuss these aspects of VQ specifically with respect to faults in the Salton Basin and near the El Mayor-Cucapah region in southern California USA and northern Baja California Norte, Mexico.

SIG-VISA: Signal-based Vertically Integrated Seismic Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, D.; Mayeda, K. M.; Myers, S. C.; Russell, S.

2013-12-01

Traditional seismic monitoring systems rely on discrete detections produced by station processing software; however, while such detections may constitute a useful summary of station activity, they discard large amounts of information present in the original recorded signal. We present SIG-VISA (Signal-based Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis), a system for seismic monitoring through Bayesian inference on seismic signals. By directly modeling the recorded signal, our approach incorporates additional information unavailable to detection-based methods, enabling higher sensitivity and more accurate localization using techniques such as waveform matching. SIG-VISA's Bayesian forward model of seismic signal envelopes includes physically-derived models of travel times and source characteristics as well as Gaussian process (kriging) statistical models of signal properties that combine interpolation of historical data with extrapolation of learned physical trends. Applying Bayesian inference, we evaluate the model on earthquakes as well as the 2009 DPRK test event, demonstrating a waveform matching effect as part of the probabilistic inference, along with results on event localization and sensitivity. In particular, we demonstrate increased sensitivity from signal-based modeling, in which the SIGVISA signal model finds statistical evidence for arrivals even at stations for which the IMS station processing failed to register any detection.

Cave acoustics in prehistory: Exploring the association of Palaeolithic visual motifs and acoustic response.

PubMed

Fazenda, Bruno; Scarre, Chris; Till, Rupert; Pasalodos, Raquel Jiménez; Guerra, Manuel Rojo; Tejedor, Cristina; Peredo, Roberto Ontañón; Watson, Aaron; Wyatt, Simon; Benito, Carlos García; Drinkall, Helen; Foulds, Frederick

2017-09-01

During the 1980 s, acoustic studies of Upper Palaeolithic imagery in French caves-using the technology then available-suggested a relationship between acoustic response and the location of visual motifs. This paper presents an investigation, using modern acoustic measurement techniques, into such relationships within the caves of La Garma, Las Chimeneas, La Pasiega, El Castillo, and Tito Bustillo in Northern Spain. It addresses methodological issues concerning acoustic measurement at enclosed archaeological sites and outlines a general framework for extraction of acoustic features that may be used to support archaeological hypotheses. The analysis explores possible associations between the position of visual motifs (which may be up to 40 000 yrs old) and localized acoustic responses. Results suggest that motifs, in general, and lines and dots, in particular, are statistically more likely to be found in places where reverberation is moderate and where the low frequency acoustic response has evidence of resonant behavior. The work presented suggests that an association of the location of Palaeolithic motifs with acoustic features is a statistically weak but tenable hypothesis, and that an appreciation of sound could have influenced behavior among Palaeolithic societies of this region.

Effectiveness of propolis on oral health: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Hwu, Yueh-Juen; Lin, Feng-Yu

2014-12-01

The use of propolis mouth rinse or gel as a supplementary intervention has increased during the last decade in Taiwan. However, the effect of propolis on oral health is not well understood. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to present the best available evidence regarding the effects of propolis use on oral health, including oral infection, dental plaque, and stomatitis. Researchers searched seven electronic databases for relevant articles published between 1969 and 2012. Data were collected using inclusion and exclusion criteria. The Joanna Briggs Institute Meta Analysis of Statistics Assessment and Review Instrument was used to evaluate the quality of the identified articles. Eight trials published from 1997 to 2011 with 194 participants had extractable data. The result of the meta-analysis indicated that, although propolis had an effect on reducing dental plaque, this effect was not statistically significant. The results were not statistically significant for oral infection or stomatitis. Although there are a number of promising indications, in view of the limited number and quality of studies and the variation in results among studies, this review highlights the need for additional well-designed trials to draw conclusions that are more robust.

Incorporation of operator knowledge for improved HMDS GPR classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Levi; McClelland, Jessee R.; Walters, Joshua R.

2012-06-01

The Husky Mine Detection System (HMDS) detects and alerts operators to potential threats observed in groundpenetrating RADAR (GPR) data. In the current system architecture, the classifiers have been trained using available data from multiple training sites. Changes in target types, clutter types, and operational conditions may result in statistical differences between the training data and the testing data for the underlying features used by the classifier, potentially resulting in an increased false alarm rate or a lower probability of detection for the system. In the current mode of operation, the automated detection system alerts the human operator when a target-like object is detected. The operator then uses data visualization software, contextual information, and human intuition to decide whether the alarm presented is an actual target or a false alarm. When the statistics of the training data and the testing data are mismatched, the automated detection system can overwhelm the analyst with an excessive number of false alarms. This is evident in the performance of and the data collected from deployed systems. This work demonstrates that analyst feedback can be successfully used to re-train a classifier to account for variable testing data statistics not originally captured in the initial training data.

Searching Choices: Quantifying Decision-Making Processes Using Search Engine Data.

PubMed

Moat, Helen Susannah; Olivola, Christopher Y; Chater, Nick; Preis, Tobias

2016-07-01

When making a decision, humans consider two types of information: information they have acquired through their prior experience of the world, and further information they gather to support the decision in question. Here, we present evidence that data from search engines such as Google can help us model both sources of information. We show that statistics from search engines on the frequency of content on the Internet can help us estimate the statistical structure of prior experience; and, specifically, we outline how such statistics can inform psychological theories concerning the valuation of human lives, or choices involving delayed outcomes. Turning to information gathering, we show that search query data might help measure human information gathering, and it may predict subsequent decisions. Such data enable us to compare information gathered across nations, where analyses suggest, for example, a greater focus on the future in countries with a higher per capita GDP. We conclude that search engine data constitute a valuable new resource for cognitive scientists, offering a fascinating new tool for understanding the human decision-making process. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Topics in Cognitive Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Cognitive Science Society.

Comment on ‘Are physicists afraid of mathematics?’

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higginson, Andrew D.; Fawcett, Tim W.

2016-11-01

In 2012, we showed that the citation count for articles in ecology and evolutionary biology declines with increasing density of equations. Kollmer et al (2015 New J. Phys. 17 013036) claim this effect is an artefact of the manner in which we plotted the data. They also present citation data from Physical Review Letters and argue, based on graphs, that citation counts are unrelated to equation density. Here we show that both claims are misguided. We identified the effects in biology not by visual means, but using the most appropriate statistical analysis. Since Kollmer et al did not carry out any statistical analysis, they cannot draw reliable inferences about the citation patterns in physics. We show that when statistically analysed their data actually do provide evidence that in physics, as in biology, citation counts are lower for articles with a high density of equations. This indicates that a negative relationship between equation density and citations may extend across the breadth of the sciences, even those in which researchers are well accustomed to mathematical descriptions of natural phenomena. We restate our assessment that this is a genuine problem and discuss what we think should be done about it.

Computational and analytical comparison of flux discretizations for the semiconductor device equations beyond Boltzmann statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, Patricio; Koprucki, Thomas; Fuhrmann, Jürgen

2017-10-01

We compare three thermodynamically consistent numerical fluxes known in the literature, appearing in a Voronoï finite volume discretization of the van Roosbroeck system with general charge carrier statistics. Our discussion includes an extension of the Scharfetter-Gummel scheme to non-Boltzmann (e.g. Fermi-Dirac) statistics. It is based on the analytical solution of a two-point boundary value problem obtained by projecting the continuous differential equation onto the interval between neighboring collocation points. Hence, it serves as a reference flux. The exact solution of the boundary value problem can be approximated by computationally cheaper fluxes which modify certain physical quantities. One alternative scheme averages the nonlinear diffusion (caused by the non-Boltzmann nature of the problem), another one modifies the effective density of states. To study the differences between these three schemes, we analyze the Taylor expansions, derive an error estimate, visualize the flux error and show how the schemes perform for a carefully designed p-i-n benchmark simulation. We present strong evidence that the flux discretization based on averaging the nonlinear diffusion has an edge over the scheme based on modifying the effective density of states.

Statistical analyses and characteristics of volcanic tremor on Stromboli Volcano (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falsaperla, S.; Langer, H.; Spampinato, S.

A study of volcanic tremor on Stromboli is carried out on the basis of data recorded daily between 1993 and 1995 by a permanent seismic station (STR) located 1.8km away from the active craters. We also consider the signal of a second station (TF1), which operated for a shorter time span. Changes in the spectral tremor characteristics can be related to modifications in volcanic activity, particularly to lava effusions and explosive sequences. Statistical analyses were carried out on a set of spectra calculated daily from seismic signals where explosion quakes were present or excluded. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were applied to identify different classes of spectra. Three clusters of spectra are associated with two different states of volcanic activity. One cluster corresponds to a state of low to moderate activity, whereas the two other clusters are present during phases with a high magma column as inferred from the occurrence of lava fountains or effusions. We therefore conclude that variations in volcanic activity at Stromboli are usually linked to changes in the spectral characteristics of volcanic tremor. Site effects are evident when comparing the spectra calculated from signals synchronously recorded at STR and TF1. However, some major spectral peaks at both stations may reflect source properties. Statistical considerations and polarization analysis are in favor of a prevailing presence of P-waves in the tremor signal along with a position of the source northwest of the craters and at shallow depth.

Soy intake and breast cancer risk: an evaluation based on a systematic review of epidemiologic evidence among the Japanese population.

PubMed

Nagata, Chisato; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Tanaka, Keitaro; Tsuji, Ichiro; Tamakoshi, Akiko; Matsuo, Keitaro; Wakai, Kenji; Inoue, Manami; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Sasazuki, Shizuka

2014-03-01

We reviewed epidemiological studies of soy intake and breast cancer among Japanese women. This report is one among a series of articles by our research group, which is evaluating the existing evidence concerning the association between health-related lifestyles and cancer. Original data were obtained from MEDLINE searches using PubMed or from searches of the Ichushi database, complemented with manual searches. Evaluation of associations was based on the strength of evidence and the magnitude of association, together with biological plausibility. Five cohort studies and six case-control studies were identified. Among the cohort studies, two studies observed that total soy intake (in terms of total amounts of soy foods or soy isoflavones) was associated with a moderate (0.5 ≤ relative risk ≤ 0.67 with statistical significance) or strong (relative risk ≤ 0.5 with statistical significance) risk reduction of breast cancer in postmenopausal women. Among the case-control studies, two studies reported a weak (0.67 ≤ odds ratio ≤ 1.5 with statistical significance or 0.5 ≤ odds ratio ≤ 0.67 without statistical significance) inverse association between total soy intake and the risk of breast cancer. In the former, this association was observed in all women combined-premenopausal and postmenopausal women-but in the latter, the association was confined to postmenopausal women. The associations of intakes of individual soy foods with the risk of breast cancer were generally null. There is some evidence that supports the biological plausibility of a protective effect of isoflavones on breast cancer risk. We conclude that soy intake possibly decreases the risk of breast cancer among Japanese women.

Effect of early childhood malnutrition on tooth eruption in Haitian adolescents.

PubMed

Psoter, W; Gebrian, B; Prophete, S; Reid, B; Katz, R

2008-04-01

The objective of this retrospective cohort study was to determine the effects of early childhood protein-energy malnutrition (EC-PEM) and current nutritional status as defined by anthropomorphic measures on the exfoliation and eruption patterns of teeth among adolescents. Oral clinical examinations were conducted in 2005 using World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria on 498 11- to 13-year-old Haitians for whom early childhood malnutrition data were available. Anthropomorphic records (weight-for-age) from the Haitian Health Foundation computerized database on children from birth through 5-years old were utilized. Current heights and weights were ascertained. Both sets of data were converted to z-scores based on the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) referent database. Based upon these z-scores, EC-PEM and current malnutrition categories were developed for this study. The analyses separately regressed the number of primary and permanent teeth on age, gender, EC-PEM status and current nutritional status. Both a delayed exfoliation of primary teeth and a delayed eruption of permanent teeth were associated with EC-PEM and current stunting in adolescence. The observed associations were either direct and statistically significant or indirectly demonstrated by presenting evidence of confounding. The overall interpretation of the models is that malnutrition beginning in the earliest years and extending throughout childhood influences the exfoliation and eruption of teeth. These findings present evidence of an association between tooth exfoliation/eruption patterns and both EC-PEM and nutritional insufficiency (stunting) throughout childhood. This observed delay in the exfoliation of the primary dentition and in the eruption of the permanent dentition has practical significance in interpreting age-specific dental caries data from populations with different malnutrition experiences.

Effectiveness of Treatment Approaches for Children and Adolescents with Reading Disabilities: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

PubMed Central

Galuschka, Katharina; Ise, Elena; Krick, Kathrin; Schulte-Körne, Gerd

2014-01-01

Children and adolescents with reading disabilities experience a significant impairment in the acquisition of reading and spelling skills. Given the emotional and academic consequences for children with persistent reading disorders, evidence-based interventions are critically needed. The present meta-analysis extracts the results of all available randomized controlled trials. The aims were to determine the effectiveness of different treatment approaches and the impact of various factors on the efficacy of interventions. The literature search for published randomized-controlled trials comprised an electronic search in the databases ERIC, PsycINFO, PubMed, and Cochrane, and an examination of bibliographical references. To check for unpublished trials, we searched the websites clinicaltrials.com and ProQuest, and contacted experts in the field. Twenty-two randomized controlled trials with a total of 49 comparisons of experimental and control groups could be included. The comparisons evaluated five reading fluency trainings, three phonemic awareness instructions, three reading comprehension trainings, 29 phonics instructions, three auditory trainings, two medical treatments, and four interventions with coloured overlays or lenses. One trial evaluated the effectiveness of sunflower therapy and another investigated the effectiveness of motor exercises. The results revealed that phonics instruction is not only the most frequently investigated treatment approach, but also the only approach whose efficacy on reading and spelling performance in children and adolescents with reading disabilities is statistically confirmed. The mean effect sizes of the remaining treatment approaches did not reach statistical significance. The present meta-analysis demonstrates that severe reading and spelling difficulties can be ameliorated with appropriate treatment. In order to be better able to provide evidence-based interventions to children and adolescent with reading disabilities, research should intensify the application of blinded randomized controlled trials. PMID:24587110

The effect of garlic tablet on pro-inflammatory cytokines in postmenopausal osteoporotic women: a randomized controlled clinical trial.

PubMed

Mozaffari-Khosravi, Hassan; Hesabgar, Hamideh-al-Sadat; Owlia, Mohammad-Bagher; Hadinedoushan, Hossein; Barzegar, Kazem; Fllahzadeh, Mohammad Hossein

2012-12-01

Menopause is one of the important causes of osteoporosis which results from estrogen deficiency. In addition, some clinical and experimental evidence indicates that there is an association between increasing pro-inflammatory cytokine activity and postmenopausal bone loss. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of garlic tablet on pro-inflammatory cytokines in postmenopausal osteoporotic women. The present study was a double-blind randomized controlled clinical trial in Yazd conducted during November 2009 until July 2010. The sample included 44 postmenopausal osteoporotic women who were randomly assigned into two groups: the garlic group (GG) and the placebo group (PG). Participants in GG took two garlic tablets daily for 1 month and the participants in PG took placebo tablets in the same manner. Serum interlukin-1, interlukin-6, and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) were measured using the ELISA method before and after the intervention. Also, 24-hour dietary recall was recorded for estimation of daily intake of some nutrients. Data were analyzed using SPSS software. There was no statistically significant difference between interlukin-1 and interlukin-6 in the two groups before and after the intervention. The mean of TNF-α did not show any statistically significant difference between the two groups before and after the intervention, but it was significantly reduced by about 47% (from 31.14±50.53 to 19.33±22.19 ng/ml, P-value = 0.05) in GG after the intervention, However, no significant difference was seen in PG. The present study produced some evidence for an immunomodulatory effect of garlic, as well as the modulation of cytokine production.

Bayesian statistics in medicine: a 25 year review.

PubMed

Ashby, Deborah

2006-11-15

This review examines the state of Bayesian thinking as Statistics in Medicine was launched in 1982, reflecting particularly on its applicability and uses in medical research. It then looks at each subsequent five-year epoch, with a focus on papers appearing in Statistics in Medicine, putting these in the context of major developments in Bayesian thinking and computation with reference to important books, landmark meetings and seminal papers. It charts the growth of Bayesian statistics as it is applied to medicine and makes predictions for the future. From sparse beginnings, where Bayesian statistics was barely mentioned, Bayesian statistics has now permeated all the major areas of medical statistics, including clinical trials, epidemiology, meta-analyses and evidence synthesis, spatial modelling, longitudinal modelling, survival modelling, molecular genetics and decision-making in respect of new technologies.

Mapping the characteristics of network meta-analyses on drug therapy: A systematic review

PubMed Central

Tonin, Fernanda S.; Steimbach, Laiza M.; Mendes, Antonio M.; Borba, Helena H.; Pontarolo, Roberto

2018-01-01

Background Network meta-analysis (NMA) is a new tool developed to overcome some limitations of pairwise meta-analyses. NMAs provide evidence on more than two comparators simultaneously. This study aimed to map the characteristics of the published NMAs on drug therapy comparisons. Methods A systematic review of NMAs comparing pharmacological interventions was performed. Searches in Medline (PubMed) and Scopus along with manual searches were conducted. The main characteristics of NMAs were systematically collected: publication metadata, criteria for drug inclusion, statistical methods used, and elements reported. A methodological quality score with 25 key elements was created and applied to the included NMAs. To identify potential trends, the median of the publication year distribution was used as a cut-off. Results The study identified 365 NMAs published from 2003 to 2016 in more than 30 countries. Randomised controlled trials were the primary source of data, with only 5% including observational studies, and 230 NMAs used a placebo as a comparator. Less than 15% of NMAs were registered in PROSPERO or a similar system. One third of studies followed PRISMA and less than 9% Cochrane recommendations. Around 30% presented full-search strategies of the systematic review, and 146 NMAs stated the selection criteria for drug inclusion. Over 75% of NMAs presented network plots, but only half described their geometry. Statistical parameters (model fit, inconsistency, convergence) were properly reported by one third of NMAs. Although 216 studies exhibited supplemental material, no data set of primary studies was available. The methodological quality score (mean 13·9; SD 3·8) presented a slightly positive trend over the years. Conclusion The map of the published NMAs emphasises the potential of this tool to gather evidence in healthcare, but it also identified some weaknesses, especially in the report, which limits its transparency and reproducibility. PMID:29709028

Construct validity of the Groningen Frailty Indicator established in a large sample of home-dwelling elderly persons: Evidence of stability across age and gender.

PubMed

Peters, L L; Boter, H; Burgerhof, J G M; Slaets, J P J; Buskens, E

2015-09-01

The primary objective of the present study was to evaluate the validity of the Groningen Frailty Indicator (GFI) in a sample of Dutch elderly persons participating in LifeLines, a large population-based cohort study. Additional aims were to assess differences between frail and non-frail elderly and examine which individual characteristics were associated with frailty. By December 2012, 5712 elderly persons were enrolled in LifeLines and complied with the inclusion criteria of the present study. Mann-Whitney U or Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to assess the variability of GFI-scores among elderly subgroups that differed in demographic characteristics, morbidity, obesity, and healthcare utilization. Within subgroups Kruskal-Wallis tests were also used to examine differences in GFI-scores across age groups. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess associations between individual characteristics and frailty. The GFI discriminated between subgroups: statistically significantly higher GFI-median scores (interquartile range) were found in e.g. males (1 [0-2]), the oldest old (2 [1-3]), in elderly who were single (1 [0-2]), with lower socio economic status (1 [0-3]), with increasing co-morbidity (2 [1-3]), who were obese (2 [1-3]), and used more healthcare (2 [1-4]). Overall age had an independent and statistically significant association with GFI scores. Compared with the non-frail, frail elderly persons experienced statistically significantly more chronic stress and more social/psychological related problems. In the multivariate logistic regression model, psychological morbidity had the strongest association with frailty. The present study supports the construct validity of the GFI and provides an insight in the characteristics of (non)frail community-dwelling elderly persons participating in LifeLines. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Separating Putative Pathogens from Background Contamination with Principal Orthogonal Decomposition: Evidence for Leptospira in the Ugandan Neonatal Septisome

PubMed Central

Schiff, Steven J.; Kiwanuka, Julius; Riggio, Gina; Nguyen, Lan; Mu, Kevin; Sproul, Emily; Bazira, Joel; Mwanga-Amumpaire, Juliet; Tumusiime, Dickson; Nyesigire, Eunice; Lwanga, Nkangi; Bogale, Kaleb T.; Kapur, Vivek; Broach, James R.; Morton, Sarah U.; Warf, Benjamin C.; Poss, Mary

2016-01-01

Neonatal sepsis (NS) is responsible for over 1 million yearly deaths worldwide. In the developing world, NS is often treated without an identified microbial pathogen. Amplicon sequencing of the bacterial 16S rRNA gene can be used to identify organisms that are difficult to detect by routine microbiological methods. However, contaminating bacteria are ubiquitous in both hospital settings and research reagents and must be accounted for to make effective use of these data. In this study, we sequenced the bacterial 16S rRNA gene obtained from blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of 80 neonates presenting with NS to the Mbarara Regional Hospital in Uganda. Assuming that patterns of background contamination would be independent of pathogenic microorganism DNA, we applied a novel quantitative approach using principal orthogonal decomposition to separate background contamination from potential pathogens in sequencing data. We designed our quantitative approach contrasting blood, CSF, and control specimens and employed a variety of statistical random matrix bootstrap hypotheses to estimate statistical significance. These analyses demonstrate that Leptospira appears present in some infants presenting within 48 h of birth, indicative of infection in utero, and up to 28 days of age, suggesting environmental exposure. This organism cannot be cultured in routine bacteriological settings and is enzootic in the cattle that often live in close proximity to the rural peoples of western Uganda. Our findings demonstrate that statistical approaches to remove background organisms common in 16S sequence data can reveal putative pathogens in small volume biological samples from newborns. This computational analysis thus reveals an important medical finding that has the potential to alter therapy and prevention efforts in a critically ill population. PMID:27379237

About hypotheses and paradigms: exploring the Discreetness-Chance Paradigm.

PubMed

Kaellis, Eugene

2006-01-01

Hypotheses generally conform to paradigms which, over time, change, usually tardily, after they have become increasingly difficult to sustain under the impact of non-conforming evidence and alternative hypotheses, but more important, when they no longer are comfortably ensconced in the surrounding social-economic-political-cultural milieu. It is asserted that this milieu is the most important factor in shaping scientific theorizing. Some examples are cited: the rejection of the evidence that the world orbits around the sun (suspected by Pythagoras) in favor of centuries-long firm adherence to the Ptolemaic geocentric system; the early acceptance of Natural Selection in spite of its tautological essence and only conjectural supporting evidence, because it justified contemporaneous social-political ideologies as typified by, e.g., Spencer and Malthus. Economic, social, and cultural factors are cited as providing the ground, i.e., ideational substrate, for what is cited as the Discreetness-Chance Paradigm (DCP), that has increasingly dominated physics, biology, and medicine for over a century and which invokes small, discrete packets of energy/matter (quanta, genes, microorganisms, aberrant cells) functioning within an environment of statistical, not determined, causality. There is speculation on a possible paradigmatic shift from the DCP, which has fostered the proliferation, parallel with ("splitting") taxonomy, of alleged individual disease entities, their diagnoses, and, when available, their specific remedies, something particularly prominent in, e.g., psychiatry's Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, a codified compendium of alleged mental and behavioral disorders, but evident in any textbook of diagnosis and treatment of physical ailments. This presumed paradigm shift may be reflected in Western medicine, presently increasingly empirical and atomized, towards a growing acceptance of a more generalized, subject-oriented, approach to health and disease, a non-material-based system of energy flow dependent only on vitality, not anatomy; and a more cohesive, integrative patient-centered approach to therapy.

Bayesian Model Selection under Time Constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoege, M.; Nowak, W.; Illman, W. A.

2017-12-01

Bayesian model selection (BMS) provides a consistent framework for rating and comparing models in multi-model inference. In cases where models of vastly different complexity compete with each other, we also face vastly different computational runtimes of such models. For instance, time series of a quantity of interest can be simulated by an autoregressive process model that takes even less than a second for one run, or by a partial differential equations-based model with runtimes up to several hours or even days. The classical BMS is based on a quantity called Bayesian model evidence (BME). It determines the model weights in the selection process and resembles a trade-off between bias of a model and its complexity. However, in practice, the runtime of models is another weight relevant factor for model selection. Hence, we believe that it should be included, leading to an overall trade-off problem between bias, variance and computing effort. We approach this triple trade-off from the viewpoint of our ability to generate realizations of the models under a given computational budget. One way to obtain BME values is through sampling-based integration techniques. We argue with the fact that more expensive models can be sampled much less under time constraints than faster models (in straight proportion to their runtime). The computed evidence in favor of a more expensive model is statistically less significant than the evidence computed in favor of a faster model, since sampling-based strategies are always subject to statistical sampling error. We present a straightforward way to include this misbalance into the model weights that are the basis for model selection. Our approach follows directly from the idea of insufficient significance. It is based on a computationally cheap bootstrapping error estimate of model evidence and is easy to implement. The approach is illustrated in a small synthetic modeling study.

Does journal club membership improve research evidence uptake in different allied health disciplines: a pre-post study.

PubMed

Lizarondo, Lucylynn M; Grimmer-Somers, Karen; Kumar, Saravana; Crockett, Alan

2012-10-29

Although allied health is considered to be one 'unit' of healthcare providers, it comprises a range of disciplines which have different training and ways of thinking, and different tasks and methods of patient care. Very few empirical studies on evidence-based practice (EBP) have directly compared allied health professionals. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of a structured model of journal club (JC), known as iCAHE (International Centre for Allied Health Evidence) JC, on the EBP knowledge, skills and behaviour of the different allied health disciplines. A pilot, pre-post study design using maximum variation sampling was undertaken. Recruitment was conducted in groups and practitioners such as physiotherapists, occupational therapists, speech pathologists, social workers, psychologists, nutritionists/dieticians and podiatrists were invited to participate. All participating groups received the iCAHE JC for six months. Quantitative data using the Adapted Fresno Test (McCluskey & Bishop) and Evidence-based Practice Questionnaire (Upton & Upton) were collected prior to the implementation of the JC, with follow-up measurements six months later. Mean percentage change and confidence intervals were calculated to compare baseline and post JC scores for all outcome measures. The results of this study demonstrate variability in EBP outcomes across disciplines after receiving the iCAHE JC. Only physiotherapists showed statistically significant improvements in all outcomes; speech pathologists and occupational therapists demonstrated a statistically significant increase in knowledge but not for attitude and evidence uptake; social workers and dieticians/nutritionists showed statistically significant positive changes in their knowledge, and evidence uptake but not for attitude. There is evidence to suggest that a JC such as the iCAHE model is an effective method for improving the EBP knowledge and skills of allied health practitioners. It may be used as a single intervention to facilitate evidence uptake in some allied health disciplines but may need to be integrated with other strategies to influence practice behaviour in other practitioners. An in-depth analysis of other factors (e.g. individual, contextual, organisational), or the relative contribution of these variables is required to better understand the determinants of evidence uptake in allied health.

Does journal club membership improve research evidence uptake in different allied health disciplines: a pre-post study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Although allied health is considered to be one 'unit' of healthcare providers, it comprises a range of disciplines which have different training and ways of thinking, and different tasks and methods of patient care. Very few empirical studies on evidence-based practice (EBP) have directly compared allied health professionals. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of a structured model of journal club (JC), known as iCAHE (International Centre for Allied Health Evidence) JC, on the EBP knowledge, skills and behaviour of the different allied health disciplines. Methods A pilot, pre-post study design using maximum variation sampling was undertaken. Recruitment was conducted in groups and practitioners such as physiotherapists, occupational therapists, speech pathologists, social workers, psychologists, nutritionists/dieticians and podiatrists were invited to participate. All participating groups received the iCAHE JC for six months. Quantitative data using the Adapted Fresno Test (McCluskey & Bishop) and Evidence-based Practice Questionnaire (Upton & Upton) were collected prior to the implementation of the JC, with follow-up measurements six months later. Mean percentage change and confidence intervals were calculated to compare baseline and post JC scores for all outcome measures. Results The results of this study demonstrate variability in EBP outcomes across disciplines after receiving the iCAHE JC. Only physiotherapists showed statistically significant improvements in all outcomes; speech pathologists and occupational therapists demonstrated a statistically significant increase in knowledge but not for attitude and evidence uptake; social workers and dieticians/nutritionists showed statistically significant positive changes in their knowledge, and evidence uptake but not for attitude. Conclusions There is evidence to suggest that a JC such as the iCAHE model is an effective method for improving the EBP knowledge and skills of allied health practitioners. It may be used as a single intervention to facilitate evidence uptake in some allied health disciplines but may need to be integrated with other strategies to influence practice behaviour in other practitioners. An in-depth analysis of other factors (e.g. individual, contextual, organisational), or the relative contribution of these variables is required to better understand the determinants of evidence uptake in allied health. PMID:23106851

Re-visiting the Amplifier Gains of the HST/ACS Wide Field Channel CCDs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desjardins, Tyler D.; Grogin, Norman A.; ACS Team

2018-06-01

For the first time since HST Servicing Mission 4 (SM4) in May 2009, we present an analysis of the amplifier gains of the Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) Wide Field Channel (WFC) CCDs. Using a series of in-flight flat-field exposures taken in November 2017 with a tungsten calibration lamp, we utilize the photon transfer method to estimate the gains of the WFC1 and WFC2 CCD amplifiers. We find evidence that the gains of the four readout amplifiers have changed by a small, but statistically significant, 1–2% since SM4. We further present a study of historical ACS/WFC observations of the globular cluster NGC 104 (47 Tuc) in an attempt to estimate the time dependence of the gains.

A re-examination of the effects of biased lineup instructions in eyewitness identification.

PubMed

Clark, Steven E

2005-10-01

A meta-analytic review of research comparing biased and unbiased instructions in eyewitness identification experiments showed an asymmetry; specifically, that biased instructions led to a large and consistent decrease in accuracy in target-absent lineups, but produced inconsistent results for target-present lineups, with an average effect size near zero (Steblay, 1997). The results for target-present lineups are surprising, and are inconsistent with statistical decision theories (i.e., Green & Swets, 1966). A re-examination of the relevant studies and the meta-analysis of those studies shows clear evidence that correct identification rates do increase with biased lineup instructions, and that biased witnesses make correct identifications at a rate considerably above chance. Implications for theory, as well as police procedure and policy, are discussed.

A re-examination of the effects of biased lineup instructions in eyewitness identification.

PubMed

Clark, Steven E

2005-08-01

A meta-analytic review of research comparing biased and unbiased instructions in eyewitness identification experiments showed an asymmetry, specifically that biased instructions led to a large and consistent decrease in accuracy in target-absent lineups, but produced inconsistent results for target-present lineups, with an average effect size near zero (N. M. Steblay, 1997). The results for target-present lineups are surprising, and are inconsistent with statistical decision theories (i.e., D. M. Green & J. A. Swets, 1966). A re-examination of the relevant studies and the meta-analysis of those studies shows clear evidence that correct identification rates do increase with biased lineup instructions, and that biased witnesses make correct identifications at a rate considerably above chance. Implications for theory, as well as police procedure and policy, are discussed.

Somatic symptom disorder, a new DSM-5 diagnosis of an old clinical challenge

PubMed Central

Rosic, Tea; Kalra, Sameer; Samaan, Zainab

2016-01-01

Somatic symptom disorder (SSD) is characterised by a dysfunctional preoccupation with one or more physical symptoms. Patients with SSD often pursue excessive and unnecessary investigations, hospitalisations and treatments that significantly affect quality of life and drain healthcare resources. Thus, appropriate diagnosis and careful management are required to mitigate the patient's distress and to reduce the burden to the healthcare system. SSD is a new disorder defined in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual Fifth Edition (DSM-5), replacing somatoform and related disorders in the DSM-4-Text Revision with diagnostic criteria that are inclusive of a broad array of presentations. This report presents a detailed clinical case of an elderly man with a history of frequent hospital visits presenting with SSD. We discuss diagnostic challenges and evidence-based management in acute inpatient as well as in outpatient settings. We also review data on healthcare utilisation associated with SSD. PMID:26759438

Relation between delayed feedback and delay-coupled systems and its application to chaotic lasers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Soriano, Miguel C., E-mail: miguel@ifisc.uib-csic.es; Flunkert, Valentin; Fischer, Ingo

2013-12-15

We present a systematic approach to identify the similarities and differences between a chaotic system with delayed feedback and two mutually delay-coupled systems. We consider the general case in which the coupled systems are either unsynchronized or in a generally synchronized state, in contrast to the mostly studied case of identical synchronization. We construct a new time-series for each of the two coupling schemes, respectively, and present analytic evidence and numerical confirmation that these two constructed time-series are statistically equivalent. From the construction, it then follows that the distribution of time-series segments that are small compared to the overall delaymore » in the system is independent of the value of the delay and of the coupling scheme. By focusing on numerical simulations of delay-coupled chaotic lasers, we present a practical example of our findings.« less

Effects of climate change on daily minimum and maximum temperatures and cloudiness in the Shikoku region: a statistical downscaling model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tatsumi, Kenichi; Oizumi, Tsutao; Yamashiki, Yosuke

2015-04-01

In this study, we present a detailed analysis of the effect of changes in cloudiness (CLD) between a future period (2071-2099) and the base period (1961-1990) on daily minimum temperature (TMIN) and maximum temperature (TMAX) in the same period for the Shikoku region, Japan. This analysis was performed using climate data obtained with the use of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). We calibrated the SDSM using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the SDSM input and daily time series of temperature and CLD from 10 surface data points (SDP) in Shikoku. Subsequently, we validated the SDSM outputs, specifically, TMIN, TMAX, and CLD, obtained with the use of the NCEP reanalysis dataset and general circulation model (GCM) data against the SDP. The GCM data used in the validation procedure were those from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios and from the third generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios. Finally, the validated SDSM was run to study the effect of future changes in CLD on TMIN and TMAX. Our analysis showed that (1) the negative linear fit between changes in TMAX and those in CLD was statistically significant in winter while the relationship between the two changes was not evident in summer, (2) the dependency of future changes in TMAX and TMIN on future changes in CLD were more evident in winter than in other seasons with the present SDSM, (3) the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased in the southern part of Shikoku in summer in all the SDSM projections while DTR increased in the northern part of Shikoku in the same season in these projections, (4) the dependencies of changes in DTR on changes in CLD were unclear in summer and winter. Results of the SDSM simulations performed for climate change scenarios such as those from this study contribute to local-scale agricultural and hydrological simulations and development of agricultural and hydrological models.

Effectiveness of Aquatic Exercise and Balneotherapy: A Summary of Systematic Reviews Based on Randomized Controlled Trials of Water Immersion Therapies

PubMed Central

Kamioka, Hiroharu; Tsutani, Kiichiro; Okuizumi, Hiroyasu; Mutoh, Yoshiteru; Ohta, Miho; Handa, Shuichi; Okada, Shinpei; Kitayuguchi, Jun; Kamada, Masamitsu; Shiozawa, Nobuyoshi; Honda, Takuya

2010-01-01

Background The objective of this review was to summarize findings on aquatic exercise and balneotherapy and to assess the quality of systematic reviews based on randomized controlled trials. Methods Studies were eligible if they were systematic reviews based on randomized clinical trials (with or without a meta-analysis) that included at least 1 treatment group that received aquatic exercise or balneotherapy. We searched the following databases: Cochrane Database Systematic Review, MEDLINE, CINAHL, Web of Science, JDream II, and Ichushi-Web for articles published from the year 1990 to August 17, 2008. Results We found evidence that aquatic exercise had small but statistically significant effects on pain relief and related outcome measures of locomotor diseases (eg, arthritis, rheumatoid diseases, and low back pain). However, long-term effectiveness was unclear. Because evidence was lacking due to the poor methodological quality of balneotherapy studies, we were unable to make any conclusions on the effects of intervention. There were frequent flaws regarding the description of excluded RCTs and the assessment of publication bias in several trials. Two of the present authors independently assessed the quality of articles using the AMSTAR checklist. Conclusions Aquatic exercise had a small but statistically significant short-term effect on locomotor diseases. However, the effectiveness of balneotherapy in curing disease or improving health remains unclear. PMID:19881230

MTHFR gene polymorphism and risk of myeloid leukemia: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dong, Song; Liu, Yueling; Chen, Jieping

2014-09-01

An increasing body of evidence has shown that the amino acid changes at position 1298 might eliminate methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) enzyme activity, leading to insufficient folic acid and subsequent human chromosome breakage. Epidemiological studies have linked MTHFR single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs1801131 to myeloid leukemia risk, with considerable discrepancy in their results. We therefore were prompted to clarify this issue by use of a meta-analysis. The search terms were used to cover the possible reports in the MEDLINE, Web of Knowledge, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) databases. Odds ratios were estimated to assess the association of SNP rs1801131 with myeloid leukemia risk. Statistical heterogeneity was detected using the Q-statistic and I (2) metric. Subgroup analysis was performed by ethnicity, histological subtype, and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE). This meta-analysis of eight publications with a total of 1,114 cases and 3,227 controls revealed no global association. Nor did the subgroup analysis according to histological subtype and HWE show any significant associations. However, Asian individuals who harbored the CC genotype were found to have 1.66-fold higher risk of myeloid leukemia (odds ratio, 1.66; 95 % confidence interval, 1.10 to 2.49; P h = 0.342; I (2) = 0.114). Our meta-analysis has presented evidence supporting a possible association between the CC genotype of MTHFR SNP rs1801131 and myeloid leukemia in Asian populations.

Bayesian Hierarchical Random Effects Models in Forensic Science.

PubMed

Aitken, Colin G G

2018-01-01

Statistical modeling of the evaluation of evidence with the use of the likelihood ratio has a long history. It dates from the Dreyfus case at the end of the nineteenth century through the work at Bletchley Park in the Second World War to the present day. The development received a significant boost in 1977 with a seminal work by Dennis Lindley which introduced a Bayesian hierarchical random effects model for the evaluation of evidence with an example of refractive index measurements on fragments of glass. Many models have been developed since then. The methods have now been sufficiently well-developed and have become so widespread that it is timely to try and provide a software package to assist in their implementation. With that in mind, a project (SAILR: Software for the Analysis and Implementation of Likelihood Ratios) was funded by the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes through their Monopoly programme to develop a software package for use by forensic scientists world-wide that would assist in the statistical analysis and implementation of the approach based on likelihood ratios. It is the purpose of this document to provide a short review of a small part of this history. The review also provides a background, or landscape, for the development of some of the models within the SAILR package and references to SAILR as made as appropriate.

The unrealized promise of infant statistical word-referent learning

PubMed Central

Smith, Linda B.; Suanda, Sumarga H.; Yu, Chen

2014-01-01

Recent theory and experiments offer a new solution as to how infant learners may break into word learning, by using cross-situational statistics to find the underlying word-referent mappings. Computational models demonstrate the in-principle plausibility of this statistical learning solution and experimental evidence shows that infants can aggregate and make statistically appropriate decisions from word-referent co-occurrence data. We review these contributions and then identify the gaps in current knowledge that prevent a confident conclusion about whether cross-situational learning is the mechanism through which infants break into word learning. We propose an agenda to address that gap that focuses on detailing the statistics in the learning environment and the cognitive processes that make use of those statistics. PMID:24637154

Consistency and sources of divergence in recommendations on screening with questionnaires for presently experienced health problems or symptoms: a comparison of recommendations from the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care, UK National Screening Committee, and US Preventive Services Task Force.

PubMed

Thombs, Brett D; Saadat, Nazanin; Riehm, Kira E; Karter, Justin Michael; Vaswani, Akansha; Andrews, Bonnie K; Simons, Peter; Cosgrove, Lisa

2017-08-09

Recently, health screening recommendations have gone beyond screening for early-stage, asymptomatic disease to include "screening" for presently experienced health problems and symptoms using self-report questionnaires. We examined recommendations from three major national guideline organizations to determine the consistency of recommendations, identify sources of divergent recommendations, and determine if guideline organizations have identified any direct randomized controlled trial (RCT) evidence for the effectiveness of questionnaire-based screening. We reviewed recommendation statements listed by the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care (CTFPHC), the United Kingdom National Screening Committee (UKNSC), and the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) as of 5 September 2016. Eligible recommendations focused on using self-report questionnaires to identify patients with presently experienced health problems or symptoms. Within each recommendation and accompanying evidence review we identified screening RCTs. We identified 22 separate recommendations on questionnaire-based screening, including three CTFPHC recommendations against screening, eight UKNSC recommendations against screening, four USPSTF recommendations in favor of screening (alcohol misuse, adolescent depression, adult depression, intimate partner violence), and seven USPSTF recommendations that did not recommend for or against screening. In the four cases where the USPSTF recommended screening, either the CTFPHC, the UKNSC, or both recommended against. When recommendations diverged, the USPSTF expressed confidence in benefits based on indirect evidence, evaluated potential harms as minimal, and did not consider cost or resource use. CTFPHC and UKNSC recommendations against screening, on the other hand, focused on the lack of direct evidence of benefit and raised concerns about harms to patients and resource use. Of six RCTs that directly evaluated screening interventions, five did not report any statistically significant primary or secondary health outcomes in favor of screening, and one trial reported equivocal results. Only the USPSTF has made any recommendations for screening with questionnaires for presently experienced problems or symptoms. The CTFPHC and UKNSC recommended against screening in all of their recommendations. Differences in recommendations appear to reflect differences in willingness to assume benefit from indirect evidence and different approaches to assessing possible harms and resource consumption. There were no examples in any recommendations of RCTs with direct evidence of improved health outcomes.