Progress in Turbulence Detection via GNSS Occultation Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornman, L. B.; Goodrich, R. K.; Axelrad, P.; Barlow, E.

2012-01-01

The increased availability of radio occultation (RO) data offers the ability to detect and study turbulence in the Earth's atmosphere. An analysis of how RO data can be used to determine the strength and location of turbulent regions is presented. This includes the derivation of a model for the power spectrum of the log-amplitude and phase fluctuations of the permittivity (or index of refraction) field. The bulk of the paper is then concerned with the estimation of the model parameters. Parameter estimators are introduced and some of their statistical properties are studied. These estimators are then applied to simulated log-amplitude RO signals. This includes the analysis of global statistics derived from a large number of realizations, as well as case studies that illustrate various specific aspects of the problem. Improvements to the basic estimation methods are discussed, and their beneficial properties are illustrated. The estimation techniques are then applied to real occultation data. Only two cases are presented, but they illustrate some of the salient features inherent in real data.

Economic impacts of hurricanes on forest owners

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

2010-01-01

We present a conceptual model of the economic impacts of hurricanes on timber producers and consumers, offer a framework indicating how welfare impacts can be estimated using econometric estimates of timber price dynamics, and illustrate the advantages of using a welfare theoretic model, which includes (1) welfare estimates that are consistent with neo-classical...

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Phase 2 evaluation report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

Documentation of the activities of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment during the 1976 Northern Hemisphere crop year is presented. A brief overview of the experiment is included as well as phase two area, yield, and production estimates for the United States Great Plains, Canada, and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics spring winter wheat regions. The accuracies of these estimates are compared with independent government estimates. Accuracy assessment of the United States Great Plains yardstick region based on a through blind sight analysis is given, and reasons for variations in estimating performance are discussed. Other phase two technical activities including operations, exploratory analysis, reporting, methods of assessment, phase three and advanced system design, technical issues, and developmental activities are also included.

Exceptional Information: Recognizing Threats and Exploiting Opportunities

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-09

EXCEPTIONAL INFORMATION : RECOGNIZING THREATS AND EXPLOITING OPPORTUNITIES A thesis presented to the Faculty of the U.S. Army...No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for... information . Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information , including suggestions for reducing this

Mission Status at Aura Science Team MOWG Meeting: EOS Aura

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, Dominic

2016-01-01

Presentation at the 24797-16 Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura Science Team Meeting (Mission Operations Work Group (MOWG)) at Rotterdam, Netherlands August 29, 2016. Presentation topics include mission summary, spacecraft subsystems summary, recent and planned activities, spacecraft anomalies, data capture, propellant usage and lifetime estimates, spacecraft maneuvers and ground track history, mission highlights and past spacecraft anomalies and reliability estimates.

Delay and environmental costs of truck crashes

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

This report presents estimates of certain categories of costs of truck- and bus-involved crashes. Crash related costs estimated as part of this study include vehicle delay costs, emission costs, and fuel consumption costs. In addition, this report al...

FIRST ORDER ESTIMATES OF ENERGY REQUIREMENTS FOR POLLUTION CONTROL

EPA Science Inventory

This report presents estimates of the energy demand attributable to environmental control of pollution from 'stationary point sources.' This class of pollution source includes powerplants, factories, refineries, municipal waste water treatment plants, etc., but excludes 'mobile s...

COST ESTIMATING EQUATIONS FOR BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES

EPA Science Inventory

This paper describes the development of an interactive internet-based cost-estimating tool for commonly used urban storm runoff best management practices (BMP), including: retention and detention ponds, grassed swales, and constructed wetlands. The paper presents the cost data, c...

Sensor Selection for Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Rinehart, Aidan W.

2015-01-01

This paper presents analytical techniques for aiding system designers in making aircraft engine health management sensor selection decisions. The presented techniques, which are based on linear estimation and probability theory, are tailored for gas turbine engine performance estimation and gas path fault diagnostics applications. They enable quantification of the performance estimation and diagnostic accuracy offered by different candidate sensor suites. For performance estimation, sensor selection metrics are presented for two types of estimators including a Kalman filter and a maximum a posteriori estimator. For each type of performance estimator, sensor selection is based on minimizing the theoretical sum of squared estimation errors in health parameters representing performance deterioration in the major rotating modules of the engine. For gas path fault diagnostics, the sensor selection metric is set up to maximize correct classification rate for a diagnostic strategy that performs fault classification by identifying the fault type that most closely matches the observed measurement signature in a weighted least squares sense. Results from the application of the sensor selection metrics to a linear engine model are presented and discussed. Given a baseline sensor suite and a candidate list of optional sensors, an exhaustive search is performed to determine the optimal sensor suites for performance estimation and fault diagnostics. For any given sensor suite, Monte Carlo simulation results are found to exhibit good agreement with theoretical predictions of estimation and diagnostic accuracies.

Sensor Selection for Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Rinehart, Aidan W.

2016-01-01

This paper presents analytical techniques for aiding system designers in making aircraft engine health management sensor selection decisions. The presented techniques, which are based on linear estimation and probability theory, are tailored for gas turbine engine performance estimation and gas path fault diagnostics applications. They enable quantification of the performance estimation and diagnostic accuracy offered by different candidate sensor suites. For performance estimation, sensor selection metrics are presented for two types of estimators including a Kalman filter and a maximum a posteriori estimator. For each type of performance estimator, sensor selection is based on minimizing the theoretical sum of squared estimation errors in health parameters representing performance deterioration in the major rotating modules of the engine. For gas path fault diagnostics, the sensor selection metric is set up to maximize correct classification rate for a diagnostic strategy that performs fault classification by identifying the fault type that most closely matches the observed measurement signature in a weighted least squares sense. Results from the application of the sensor selection metrics to a linear engine model are presented and discussed. Given a baseline sensor suite and a candidate list of optional sensors, an exhaustive search is performed to determine the optimal sensor suites for performance estimation and fault diagnostics. For any given sensor suite, Monte Carlo simulation results are found to exhibit good agreement with theoretical predictions of estimation and diagnostic accuracies.

Computer code for estimating installed performance of aircraft gas turbine engines. Volume 2: Users manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kowalski, E. J.

1979-01-01

A computerized method which utilizes the engine performance data and estimates the installed performance of aircraft gas turbine engines is presented. This installation includes: engine weight and dimensions, inlet and nozzle internal performance and drag, inlet and nacelle weight, and nacelle drag. A user oriented description of the program input requirements, program output, deck setup, and operating instructions is presented.

Range estimates of whale signals recorded by triplets of hydrophones.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Bras, R. J.; Nielsen, P.

2017-12-01

The International Monitoring System of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization includes a hydroacoustic network as one of the monitoring technologies. The underwater part of this network includes six stations and is now complete with the recent installation of the HA04 station located in the Southern Ocean island of Crozet (France). A large number of calls emanating from marine mammals are recorded by the hydrophones, and we present examples where the animals are sufficiently close that a range estimate can be attempted. We also present examples of scattered arrivals and related interpretations.

Fixed reproducible tangible wealth in the United States, 1925-94

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-08-01

This volume presents estimates of fixed reproducible tangible wealth in the United States for 192594 that were prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). It includes the investment series that were used to construct these estimates; for mo...

COST ESTIMATING EQUATIONS FOR BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES (BMP)

EPA Science Inventory

This paper describes the development of an interactive internet-based cost-estimating tool for commonly used urban storm runoff best management practices (BMP), including: retention and detention ponds, grassed swales, and constructed wetlands. The paper presents the cost data, c...

Communications availability: Estimation studies at AMSC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sigler, C. Edward, Jr.

1994-01-01

The results of L-band communications availability work performed to date are presented. Results include a L-band communications availability estimate model and field propagation trials using an INMARSAT-M terminal. American Mobile Satellite Corporation's (AMSC's) primary concern centers on availability of voice communications intelligibility, with secondary concerns for circuit-switched data and fax. The model estimates for representative terrain/vegetation areas are applied to the contiguous U.S. for overall L-band communications availability estimates.

Percent canopy cover and stand structure statistics from the Forest Vegetation Simulator

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston; Albert R. Stage

1999-01-01

Estimates of percent canopy cover generated by the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) are corrected for crown overlap using an equation presented in this paper. A comparison of the new cover estimate to some others is provided. The cover estimate is one of several describing stand structure. The structure descriptors also include major species, ranges of diameters, tree...

Identification of linear system models and state estimators for controls

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Chung-Wen

1992-01-01

The following paper is presented in viewgraph format and covers topics including: (1) linear state feedback control system; (2) Kalman filter state estimation; (3) relation between residual and stochastic part of output; (4) obtaining Kalman filter gain; (5) state estimation under unknown system model and unknown noises; and (6) relationship between filter Markov parameters and system Markov parameters.

Spectrum Modal Analysis for the Detection of Low-Altitude Windshear with Airborne Doppler Radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kunkel, Matthew W.

1992-01-01

A major obstacle in the estimation of windspeed patterns associated with low-altitude windshear with an airborne pulsed Doppler radar system is the presence of strong levels of ground clutter which can strongly bias a windspeed estimate. Typical solutions attempt to remove the clutter energy from the return through clutter rejection filtering. Proposed is a method whereby both the weather and clutter modes present in a return spectrum can be identified to yield an unbiased estimate of the weather mode without the need for clutter rejection filtering. An attempt will be made to show that modeling through a second order extended Prony approach is sufficient for the identification of the weather mode. A pattern recognition approach to windspeed estimation from the identified modes is derived and applied to both simulated and actual flight data. Comparisons between windspeed estimates derived from modal analysis and the pulse-pair estimator are included as well as associated hazard factors. Also included is a computationally attractive method for estimating windspeeds directly from the coefficients of a second-order autoregressive model. Extensions and recommendations for further study are included.

Missing texture reconstruction method based on error reduction algorithm using Fourier transform magnitude estimation scheme.

PubMed

Ogawa, Takahiro; Haseyama, Miki

2013-03-01

A missing texture reconstruction method based on an error reduction (ER) algorithm, including a novel estimation scheme of Fourier transform magnitudes is presented in this brief. In our method, Fourier transform magnitude is estimated for a target patch including missing areas, and the missing intensities are estimated by retrieving its phase based on the ER algorithm. Specifically, by monitoring errors converged in the ER algorithm, known patches whose Fourier transform magnitudes are similar to that of the target patch are selected from the target image. In the second approach, the Fourier transform magnitude of the target patch is estimated from those of the selected known patches and their corresponding errors. Consequently, by using the ER algorithm, we can estimate both the Fourier transform magnitudes and phases to reconstruct the missing areas.

A Structural Modeling Approach to a Multilevel Random Coefficients Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rovine, Michael J.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

2000-01-01

Presents a method for estimating the random coefficients model using covariance structure modeling and allowing one to estimate both fixed and random effects. The method is applied to real and simulated data, including marriage data from J. Belsky and M. Rovine (1990). (SLD)

Bank Regulation: Analysis of the Failure of Superior Bank, FSB, Hinsdale, Illinois

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-02-07

statement of financial position based on the fair value . The best evidence of fair value is a quoted market price in an active market, but if there is no...market price, the value must be estimated. In estimating the fair value of retained interests, valuation techniques include estimating the present...about interest rates, default, prepayment, and volatility. In 1999, FASB explained that when estimating the fair value for 7FAS No. 140: Accounting for

EPA’s Travel Efficiency Method (TEAM) AMPO Presentation

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Presentation describes EPA’s Travel Efficiency Assessment Method (TEAM) assessing potential travel efficiency strategies for reducing travel activity and emissions, includes reduction estimates in Vehicle Miles Traveled in four different geographic areas.

Critical length sampling: a method to estimate the volume of downed coarse woody debris

Treesearch

G& #246; ran St& #229; hl; Jeffrey H. Gove; Michael S. Williams; Mark J. Ducey

2010-01-01

In this paper, critical length sampling for estimating the volume of downed coarse woody debris is presented. Using this method, the volume of downed wood in a stand can be estimated by summing the critical lengths of down logs included in a sample obtained using a relascope or wedge prism; typically, the instrument should be tilted 90° from its usual...

Assessment of the Risks Presented by Carbon Fiber Composites Released From Motor Vehicle Fires

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-03-01

A risk assessment was conducted to estimate the potential losses through 1993 due to the usage of carbon fiber (CF) composites in U.S. motor vehicles, including automobiles and trucks. A methodology was developed to compute estimated dollar losses by...

EPA's SHEDS-multimedia model: children's cumulative pyrethroid exposure estimates and evaluation against NHANES biomarker data

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. EPA's SHEDS-Multimedia model was applied to enhance the understanding of children's exposures and doses to multiple pyrethroid pesticides, including major contributing chemicals and pathways. This paper presents combined dietary and residential exposure estimates and cum...

Program review presentation to Level 1, Interagency Coordination Committee

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

Progress in the development of crop inventory technology is reported. Specific topics include the results of a thematic mapper analysis, variable selection studies/early season estimator improvements, the agricultural information system simulator, large unit proportion estimation, and development of common features for multi-satellite information extraction.

ESTIMATING SOLAR RADIATION EXPOSURE IN WETLANDS USING RADIATION MODELS, FIELD DATA, AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

This seminar will describe development of methods for the estimation of solar radiation doses in wetlands. The methodology presents a novel approach to incorporating aspects of solar radiation dosimetry that have historically received limited attention. These include effects of a...

Methods for Estimating Water Withdrawals for Mining in the United States, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelace, John K.

2009-01-01

The mining water-use category includes groundwater and surface water that is withdrawn and used for nonfuels and fuels mining. Nonfuels mining includes the extraction of ores, stone, sand, and gravel. Fuels mining includes the extraction of coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Water is used for mineral extraction, quarrying, milling, and other operations directly associated with mining activities. For petroleum and natural gas extraction, water often is injected for secondary oil or gas recovery. Estimates of water withdrawals for mining are needed for water planning and management. This report documents methods used to estimate withdrawals of fresh and saline groundwater and surface water for mining during 2005 for each county and county equivalent in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Fresh and saline groundwater and surface-water withdrawals during 2005 for nonfuels- and coal-mining operations in each county or county equivalent in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands were estimated. Fresh and saline groundwater withdrawals for oil and gas operations in counties of six states also were estimated. Water withdrawals for nonfuels and coal mining were estimated by using mine-production data and water-use coefficients. Production data for nonfuels mining included the mine location and weight (in metric tons) of crude ore, rock, or mineral produced at each mine in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands during 2004. Production data for coal mining included the weight, in metric tons, of coal produced in each county or county equivalent during 2004. Water-use coefficients for mined commodities were compiled from various sources including published reports and written communications from U.S. Geological Survey National Water-use Information Program (NWUIP) personnel in several states. Water withdrawals for oil and gas extraction were estimated for six States including California, Colorado, Louisiana, New Mexico, Texas, and Wyoming, by using data from State agencies that regulate oil and gas extraction. Total water withdrawals for mining in a county were estimated by summing estimated water withdrawals for nonfuels mining, coal mining, and oil and gas extraction. The results of this study were distributed to NWUIP personnel in each State during 2007. NWUIP personnel were required to submit estimated withdrawals for numerous categories of use in their States to a national compilation team for inclusion in a national report describing water use in the United States during 2005. NWUIP personnel had the option of submitting the estimates determined by using the methods described in this report, a modified version of these estimates, or their own set of estimates or reported data. Estimated withdrawals resulting from the methods described in this report may not be included in the national report; therefore the estimates are not presented herein in order to avoid potential inconsistencies with the national report. Water-use coefficients for specific minerals also are not presented to avoid potential disclosure of confidential production data provided by mining operations to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Biennial Survey of Education in the United States, 1934-1936. Bulletin, 1937, No. 2. Volume II. Chapter III: Statistics of City School Systems, 1935-36

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herlihy, Lester B.; Deffenbaugh, Walter S.

1938-01-01

This report presents statistics of city school systems for the school year 1935-36. prior to 1933-34 school statistics for cities included in county unit systems were estimated. Most of these cities are in Florida, Louisiana, Maryland, and West Virginia. Since the method of estimating school statistics for the cities included with the counties in…

Intelligence/Electronic Warfare (IEW) direction-finding and fix estimation analysis report. Volume 2: Trailblazer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gardner, Robert; Gillis, James W.; Griesel, Ann; Pardo, Bruce

1985-01-01

An analysis of the direction finding (DF) and fix estimation algorithms in TRAILBLAZER is presented. The TRAILBLAZER software analyzed is old and not currently used in the field. However, the algorithms analyzed are used in other current IEW systems. The underlying algorithm assumptions (including unmodeled errors) are examined along with their appropriateness for TRAILBLAZER. Coding and documentation problems are then discussed. A detailed error budget is presented.

The Problem With Estimating Public Health Spending.

PubMed

Leider, Jonathon P

2016-01-01

Accurate information on how much the United States spends on public health is critical. These estimates affect planning efforts; reflect the value society places on the public health enterprise; and allows for the demonstration of cost-effectiveness of programs, policies, and services aimed at increasing population health. Yet, at present, there are a limited number of sources of systematic public health finance data. Each of these sources is collected in different ways, for different reasons, and so yields strikingly different results. This article aims to compare and contrast all 4 current national public health finance data sets, including data compiled by Trust for America's Health, the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO), the National Association of County and City Health Officials (NACCHO), and the Census, which underlie the oft-cited National Health Expenditure Account estimates of public health activity. In FY2008, ASTHO estimates that state health agencies spent $24 billion ($94 per capita on average, median $79), while the Census estimated all state governmental agencies including state health agencies spent $60 billion on public health ($200 per capita on average, median $166). Census public health data suggest that local governments spent an average of $87 per capita (median $57), whereas NACCHO estimates that reporting LHDs spent $64 per capita on average (median $36) in FY2008. We conclude that these estimates differ because the various organizations collect data using different means, data definitions, and inclusion/exclusion criteria--most notably around whether to include spending by all agencies versus a state/local health department, and whether behavioral health, disability, and some clinical care spending are included in estimates. Alongside deeper analysis of presently underutilized Census administrative data, we see harmonization efforts and the creation of a standardized expenditure reporting system as a way to meaningfully systematize reporting of public health spending and revenue.

Developing a Fundamental Model for an Integrated GPS/INS State Estimation System with Kalman Filtering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Canfield, Stephen

1999-01-01

This work will demonstrate the integration of sensor and system dynamic data and their appropriate models using an optimal filter to create a robust, adaptable, easily reconfigurable state (motion) estimation system. This state estimation system will clearly show the application of fundamental modeling and filtering techniques. These techniques are presented at a general, first principles level, that can easily be adapted to specific applications. An example of such an application is demonstrated through the development of an integrated GPS/INS navigation system. This system acquires both global position data and inertial body data, to provide optimal estimates of current position and attitude states. The optimal states are estimated using a Kalman filter. The state estimation system will include appropriate error models for the measurement hardware. The results of this work will lead to the development of a "black-box" state estimation system that supplies current motion information (position and attitude states) that can be used to carry out guidance and control strategies. This black-box state estimation system is developed independent of the vehicle dynamics and therefore is directly applicable to a variety of vehicles. Issues in system modeling and application of Kalman filtering techniques are investigated and presented. These issues include linearized models of equations of state, models of the measurement sensors, and appropriate application and parameter setting (tuning) of the Kalman filter. The general model and subsequent algorithm is developed in Matlab for numerical testing. The results of this system are demonstrated through application to data from the X-33 Michael's 9A8 mission and are presented in plots and simple animations.

Corrected score estimation in the proportional hazards model with misclassified discrete covariates

PubMed Central

Zucker, David M.; Spiegelman, Donna

2013-01-01

SUMMARY We consider Cox proportional hazards regression when the covariate vector includes error-prone discrete covariates along with error-free covariates, which may be discrete or continuous. The misclassification in the discrete error-prone covariates is allowed to be of any specified form. Building on the work of Nakamura and his colleagues, we present a corrected score method for this setting. The method can handle all three major study designs (internal validation design, external validation design, and replicate measures design), both functional and structural error models, and time-dependent covariates satisfying a certain ‘localized error’ condition. We derive the asymptotic properties of the method and indicate how to adjust the covariance matrix of the regression coefficient estimates to account for estimation of the misclassification matrix. We present the results of a finite-sample simulation study under Weibull survival with a single binary covariate having known misclassification rates. The performance of the method described here was similar to that of related methods we have examined in previous works. Specifically, our new estimator performed as well as or, in a few cases, better than the full Weibull maximum likelihood estimator. We also present simulation results for our method for the case where the misclassification probabilities are estimated from an external replicate measures study. Our method generally performed well in these simulations. The new estimator has a broader range of applicability than many other estimators proposed in the literature, including those described in our own earlier work, in that it can handle time-dependent covariates with an arbitrary misclassification structure. We illustrate the method on data from a study of the relationship between dietary calcium intake and distal colon cancer. PMID:18219700

On-line estimation of nonlinear physical systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christakos, G.

1988-01-01

Recursive algorithms for estimating states of nonlinear physical systems are presented. Orthogonality properties are rediscovered and the associated polynomials are used to linearize state and observation models of the underlying random processes. This requires some key hypotheses regarding the structure of these processes, which may then take account of a wide range of applications. The latter include streamflow forecasting, flood estimation, environmental protection, earthquake engineering, and mine planning. The proposed estimation algorithm may be compared favorably to Taylor series-type filters, nonlinear filters which approximate the probability density by Edgeworth or Gram-Charlier series, as well as to conventional statistical linearization-type estimators. Moreover, the method has several advantages over nonrecursive estimators like disjunctive kriging. To link theory with practice, some numerical results for a simulated system are presented, in which responses from the proposed and extended Kalman algorithms are compared. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Estimation of single plane unbalance parameters of a rotor-bearing system using Kalman filtering based force estimation technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrivastava, Akash; Mohanty, A. R.

2018-03-01

This paper proposes a model-based method to estimate single plane unbalance parameters (amplitude and phase angle) in a rotor using Kalman filter and recursive least square based input force estimation technique. Kalman filter based input force estimation technique requires state-space model and response measurements. A modified system equivalent reduction expansion process (SEREP) technique is employed to obtain a reduced-order model of the rotor system so that limited response measurements can be used. The method is demonstrated using numerical simulations on a rotor-disk-bearing system. Results are presented for different measurement sets including displacement, velocity, and rotational response. Effects of measurement noise level, filter parameters (process noise covariance and forgetting factor), and modeling error are also presented and it is observed that the unbalance parameter estimation is robust with respect to measurement noise.

Applications of harvesting system simulation to timber management and utilization analyses

Treesearch

John E. Baumgras; Chris B. LeDoux

1990-01-01

Applications of timber harvesting system simulation to the economic analysis of forest management and wood utilization practices are presented. These applications include estimating thinning revenue by stand age, estimating impacts of minimum merchantable tree diameter on harvesting revenue, and evaluating wood utilization alternatives relative to pulpwood quotas and...

Plantation thinning systems in the Southern United States

Treesearch

Bryce J. Stokes; William F. Watson

1996-01-01

This paper reviews southern pine management and thinning practices, describes three harvesting systems for thinning, and presents production and cost estimates, and utilization rates. The costs and product recoveries were developed from published sources using a spreadsheet analysis. Systems included tree-length, flail/chip, and cut-to-length. The estimated total...

Prediction of internal and external noise fields for blowdown wind tunnels.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hosier, R. N.; Mayes, W. H.

1972-01-01

Empirical methods have been developed to estimate the test section noise levels and the outside noise radiation patterns of blowdown wind tunnels. Included are considerations of noise generation by control valves, burners, turbulent boundary layers, and exhaust jets as appropriate. Sample test section and radiation field noise estimates are presented. The external estimates are noted to be in good agreement with the limited amount of available measurements.

Solutions for the diurnally forced advection-diffusion equation to estimate bulk fluid velocity and diffusivity in streambeds from temperature time series

Treesearch

Charles H. Luce; Daniele Tonina; Frank Gariglio; Ralph Applebee

2013-01-01

Work over the last decade has documented methods for estimating fluxes between streams and streambeds from time series of temperature at two depths in the streambed. We present substantial extension to the existing theory and practice of using temperature time series to estimate streambed water fluxes and thermal properties, including (1) a new explicit analytical...

Coal gasification systems engineering and analysis. Appendix D: Cost and economic studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

The detailed cost estimate documentation for the designs prepared in this study are presented. The include: (1) Koppers-Totzek, (2) Texaco (3) Babcock and Wilcox, (4) BGC-Lurgi, and (5) Lurgi. The alternate product cost estimates include: (1) Koppers-Totzek and Texaco single product facilities (methane, methanol, gasoline, hydrogen), (2) Kopers-Totzek SNG and MBG, (3) Kopers-Totzek and Texaco SNG and MBG, and (4) Lurgi-methane and Lurgi-methane and methanol.

Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium, 1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stengle, Thomas H. (Editor)

1993-01-01

This conference publication includes 40 papers and abstracts presented at the Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium on May 5-7, 1992. Sponsored by the Flight Dynamics Division of Goddard Space Flight Center, this symposium featured technical papers on a wide range of issues related to orbit-attitude prediction, determination, and control; attitude sensor calibration; attitude determination error analysis; attitude dynamics; and orbit decay and maneuver strategy. Government, industry, and the academic community participated in the preparation and presentation of these papers.

Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium 1996

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greatorex, Scott (Editor)

1996-01-01

This conference publication includes 34 papers and abstracts presented at the Flight Mechanics/ Estimation Theory Symposium on May 14-16, 1996. Sponsored by the Flight Dynamics Division of Goddard Space Flight Center, this symposium featured technical papers on a wide range of issues related to orbit-attitude prediction, determination, and control; attitude sensor calibration; attitude determination error analysis; attitude dynamics; and orbit decay and maneuver strategy. Government, industry, and the academic community participated in the preparation and presentation of these papers.

Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium, 1994

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartman, Kathy R. (Editor)

1994-01-01

This conference publication includes 41 papers and abstracts presented at the Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium on May 17-19, 1994. Sponsored by the Flight Dynamics Division of Goddard Space Flight Center, this symposium featured technical papers on a wide range of issues related to orbit-attitude prediction, determination and control; attitude sensor calibration; attitude determination error analysis; attitude dynamics; and orbit decay and maneuver strategy. Government, industry, and the academic community participated in the preparation and presentation of these papers.

Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium, 1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stengle, Thomas (Editor)

1990-01-01

This conference publication includes 32 papers and abstracts presented at the Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium on May 22-25, 1990. Sponsored by the Flight Dynamics Division of Goddard Space Flight Center, this symposium features technical papers on a wide range of issues related to orbit-attitude prediction, determination and control; attitude sensor calibration; attitude determination error analysis; attitude dynamics; and orbit decay and maneuver strategy. Government, industry, and the academic community participated in the preparation and presentation of these papers.

Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium 1995

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartman, Kathy R. (Editor)

1995-01-01

This conference publication includes 41 papers and abstracts presented at the Flight Mechanics/ Estimation Theory Symposium on May 16-18, 1995. Sponsored by the Flight Dynamics Division of Goddard Space Flight Center, this symposium featured technical papers on a wide range of issues related to orbit-attitude prediction, determination, and control; attitude sensor calibration; attitude determination error analysis; attitude dynamics; and orbit decay and maneuver strategy. Government, industry, and the academic community participated in the preparation and presentation of these papers.

Estimating contaminant loads in rivers: An application of adjusted maximum likelihood to type 1 censored data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.

2005-01-01

This paper presents an adjusted maximum likelihood estimator (AMLE) that can be used to estimate fluvial transport of contaminants, like phosphorus, that are subject to censoring because of analytical detection limits. The AMLE is a generalization of the widely accepted minimum variance unbiased estimator (MVUE), and Monte Carlo experiments confirm that it shares essentially all of the MVUE's desirable properties, including high efficiency and negligible bias. In particular, the AMLE exhibits substantially less bias than alternative censored‐data estimators such as the MLE (Tobit) or the MLE followed by a jackknife. As with the MLE and the MVUE the AMLE comes close to achieving the theoretical Frechet‐Cramér‐Rao bounds on its variance. This paper also presents a statistical framework, applicable to both censored and complete data, for understanding and estimating the components of uncertainty associated with load estimates. This can serve to lower the cost and improve the efficiency of both traditional and real‐time water quality monitoring.

Economic productivity by age and sex: 2007 estimates for the United States.

PubMed

Grosse, Scott D; Krueger, Kurt V; Mvundura, Mercy

2009-07-01

Human capital estimates of labor productivity are often used to estimate the economic impact of diseases and injuries that cause incapacitation or death. Estimates of average hourly, annual, and lifetime economic productivity, both market and household, were calculated in 2007 US dollars for 5-year age groups for men, women, and both sexes in the United States. Data from the American Time Use Survey were used to estimate hours of paid work and household services and hourly and annual earnings and household productivity. Present values of discounted lifetime earnings were calculated for each age group using the 2004 US life tables and a discount rate of 3% per year and assuming future productivity growth of 1% per year. The estimates of hours and productivity were calculated using the time diaries of 72,922 persons included in the American Time Use Survey for the years 2003 to 2007. The present value of lifetime productivity is approximately $1.2 million in 2007 dollars for children under 5 years of age. For adults in their 20s and 30s, it is approximately $1.6 million and then it declines with increasing age. Productivity estimates are higher for males than for females, more for market productivity than for total productivity. Changes in hours of paid employment and household services can affect economic productivity by age and sex. This is the first publication to include estimates of household services based on contemporary time use data for the US population.

Upper Grades Ideas.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thornburg, David; Beane, Pam

1983-01-01

Presents programming ideas using LOGO, activity for converting flowchart into a computer program, and a Pascal program for generating music using paddles. Includes the article "Helping Computers Adapt to Kids" by Philip Nothnagle; a program for estimating length of lines is included. (JN)

ASSESSMENT OF VOC EMISSIONS FROM FIBERGLASS BOAT MANUFACTURING

EPA Science Inventory

The report presents an assessment of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from fiberglass boat manufacturing. Description of the industry structure is presented, including estimates of the number of facilities, their size, and geographic distribution. The fiberglass boat m...

The dosimetric impact of including the patient table in CT dose estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowik, Patrik; Bujila, Robert; Kull, Love; Andersson, Jonas; Poludniowski, Gavin

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the dosimetric impact of including the patient table in Monte Carlo CT dose estimates for both spiral scans and scan projection radiographs (SPR). CT scan acquisitions were simulated for a Siemens SOMATOM Force scanner (Siemens Healthineers, Forchheim, Germany) with and without a patient table present. An adult male, an adult female and a pediatric female voxelized phantom were simulated. The simulated scans included tube voltages of 80 and 120 kVp. Spiral scans simulated without a patient table resulted in effective doses that were overestimated by approximately 5% compared to the same simulations performed with the patient table present. Doses in selected individual organs (breast, colon, lung, red bone marrow and stomach) were overestimated by up to 8%. Effective doses from SPR acquired with the x-ray tube stationary at 6 o’clock (posterior-anterior) were overestimated by 14-23% when the patient table was not included, with individual organ dose discrepancies (breast, colon, lung red bone marrow and stomach) all exceeding 13%. The reference entrance skin dose to the back were in this situation overestimated by 6-15%. These results highlight the importance of including the patient table in patient dose estimates for such scan situations.

First Order Estimates of Energy Requirements for Pollution Control. Interagency Energy-Environment Research and Development Program Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barker, James L.; And Others

This U.S. Environmental Protection Agency report presents estimates of the energy demand attributable to environmental control of pollution from stationary point sources. This class of pollution source includes powerplants, factories, refineries, municipal waste water treatment plants, etc., but excludes mobile sources such as trucks, and…

Photographic guidance for selecting flow resistance coefficients in high-gradient channels

Treesearch

Steven E. Yochum; Francesco Comiti; Ellen Wohl; Gabrielle C. L. David; Luca Mao

2014-01-01

Photographic guidance is presented to assist with the estimation of Manning’s n and Darcy-Weisbach f in high-gradient plane-bed, step-pool, and cascade channels. Reaches both with and without instream wood are included. These coefficients are necessary for the estimation of reachaverage velocity, energy loss, and...

Lake Powell management alternatives and values: CVM estimates of recreation benefits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Douglas, A.J.; Harpman, D.A.

2004-01-01

This paper presents data analyses based on information gathered from a recreation survey distributed during the spring of 1997 at Lake Powell. Recreation-linked management issues are the foci of the survey and this discussion. Survey responses to contingent valuation method (CVM) queries included in the questionnaire quantify visitor recreation values. The CVM estimates of the benefits provided by potential resource improvements are compared with the costs of the improvements in a benefit-cost analysis. The CVM questions covered three resources management issues including water quality improvement, sport fish harvest enhancement, and archeological site protection and restoration. The estimated benefits are remarkably high relative to the costs and range from $6 to $60 million per year. The dichotomous choice format was used in each of three resource CVM question scenarios. There were two levels of enhancement for each resource. There are, therefore, several consistency requirements—some of them unique to the dichotomous choice format—that the data and benefit estimates must satisfy. These consistency tests are presented in detail in the ensuing analysis.

An Economic Model of U.S. Airline Operating Expenses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Franklin D.

2005-01-01

This report presents a new economic model of operating expenses for 67 airlines. The model is based on data that the airlines reported to the United States Department of Transportation in 1999. The model incorporates expense-estimating equations that capture direct and indirect expenses of both passenger and cargo airlines. The variables and business factors included in the equations are detailed enough to calculate expenses at the flight equipment reporting level. Total operating expenses for a given airline are then obtained by summation over all aircraft operated by the airline. The model's accuracy is demonstrated by correlation with the DOT Form 41 data from which it was derived. Passenger airlines are more accurately modeled than cargo airlines. An appendix presents a concise summary of the expense estimating equations with explanatory notes. The equations include many operational and aircraft variables, which accommodate any changes that airline and aircraft manufacturers might make to lower expenses in the future. In 1999, total operating expenses of the 67 airlines included in this study amounted to slightly over $100.5 billion. The economic model reported herein estimates $109.3 billion.

Multi-ball and one-ball geolocation and location verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, D. J.; Townsend, J. L.

2017-05-01

We present analysis methods that may be used to geolocate emitters using one or more moving receivers. While some of the methods we present may apply to a broader class of signals, our primary interest is locating and tracking ships from short pulsed transmissions, such as the maritime Automatic Identification System (AIS.) The AIS signal is difficult to process and track since the pulse duration is only 25 milliseconds, and the pulses may only be transmitted every six to ten seconds. Several fundamental problems are addressed, including demodulation of AIS/GMSK signals, verification of the emitter location, accurate frequency and delay estimation and identification of pulse trains from the same emitter. In particular, we present several new correlation methods, including cross-cross correlation that greatly improves correlation accuracy over conventional methods and cross- TDOA and cross-FDOA functions that make it possible to estimate time and frequency delay without the need of computing a two dimensional cross-ambiguity surface. By isolating pulses from the same emitter and accurately tracking the received signal frequency, we are able to accurately estimate the emitter location from the received Doppler characteristics.

Attitude determination and parameter estimation using vector observations - Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markley, F. Landis

1989-01-01

Procedures for attitude determination based on Wahba's loss function are generalized to include the estimation of parameters other than the attitude, such as sensor biases. Optimization with respect to the attitude is carried out using the q-method, which does not require an a priori estimate of the attitude. Optimization with respect to the other parameters employs an iterative approach, which does require an a priori estimate of these parameters. Conventional state estimation methods require a priori estimates of both the parameters and the attitude, while the algorithm presented in this paper always computes the exact optimal attitude for given values of the parameters. Expressions for the covariance of the attitude and parameter estimates are derived.

Quantifying UK emissions of carbon dioxide using an integrative measurement strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzi, S.; Palmer, P.

2015-12-01

The main objective of the Greenhouse gAs Uk and Global Emissions (GAUGE) programme is to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes from the UK. GAUGE builds on the tall tower network established by the UK Government to estimate fluxes from England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. The GAUGE measurement programme includes two additional tall tower sites (one in North Yorkshire and one downwind of London); regular measurements of CO2 and CH4 isotopologues; instrumentation installed on a ferry that travels daily along the eastern coast of the UK from Scotland to Belgium; a research aircraft that has been deployed on a campaign basis; and a high-density network over East Anglia that is primarily focused on the agricultural sector. We have also included satellite observations from the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) through ongoing activities within the UK National Centre for Earth Observation. In this presentation, we will present new CO2 flux estimates for the UK inferred from GAUGE measurements using a nested, high-resolution (25 km) version of the GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport model and an ensemble Kalman filter. We will present our current best estimate for CO2 fluxes and a preliminary assessment of the efficacy of individual GAUGE data sources to spatially resolve CO2 flux estimates over the UK. We will also discuss how flux estimates inferred from the different models used within GAUGE can help to assess the role of transport model error and to determine an ensemble CO2 flux estimate for the UK.

Mass properties survey of solar array technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kraus, Robert

1991-01-01

An overview of the technologies, electrical performance, and mass characteristics of many of the presently available and the more advanced developmental space solar array technologies is presented. Qualitative trends and quantitative mass estimates as total array output power is increased from 1 kW to 5 kW at End of Life (EOL) from a single wing are shown. The array technologies are part of a database supporting an ongoing solar power subsystem model development for top level subsystem and technology analyses. The model is used to estimate the overall electrical and thermal performance of the complete subsystem, and then calculate the mass and volume of the array, batteries, power management, and thermal control elements as an initial sizing. The array types considered here include planar rigid panel designs, flexible and rigid fold-out planar arrays, and two concentrator designs, one with one critical axis and the other with two critical axes. Solar cell technologies of Si, GaAs, and InP were included in the analyses. Comparisons were made at the array level; hinges, booms, harnesses, support structures, power transfer, and launch retention mountings were included. It is important to note that the results presented are approximations, and in some cases revised or modified performance and mass estimates of specific designs.

Analysis of scanner data for crop inventories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horvath, R. (Principal Investigator); Cicone, R. C.; Kauth, R. J.; Malila, W. A.; Pont, W.; Thelen, B.; Sellman, A.

1981-01-01

Accomplishments for a machine-oriented small grains labeler T&E, and for Argentina ground data collection are reported. Features of the small grains labeler include temporal-spectral profiles, which characterize continuous patterns of crop spectral development, and crop calendar shift estimation, which adjusts for planting date differences of fields within a crop type. Corn and soybean classification technology development for area estimation for foreign commodity production forecasting is reported. Presentations supporting quarterly project management reviews and a quarterly technical interchange meeting are also included.

Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium 1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stengle, Thomas (Editor)

1988-01-01

This conference publication includes 28 papers and abstracts presented at the Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium on May 10 to 11, 1988. Sponsored by the Flight Dynamics Division of Goddard Space Flight Center, this symposium features technical papers on a wide range of issue related to orbit-attitude prediction, determination and control; attitude sensor calibration; attitude determination error analysis; attitude dynamics; and orbit decay and maneuver strategy. Government, industry, and the academic community participated in the preparation and presentation of these papers.

Container Surface Evaluation by Function Estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wendelberger, James G.

Container images are analyzed for specific surface features, such as, pits, cracks, and corrosion. The detection of these features is confounded with complicating features. These complication features include: shape/curvature, welds, edges, scratches, foreign objects among others. A method is provided to discriminate between the various features. The method consists of estimating the image background, determining a residual image and post processing to determine the features present. The methodology is not finalized but demonstrates the feasibility of a method to determine the kind and size of the features present.

On the estimation of risk associated with an attenuation prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, R. K.

1992-01-01

Viewgraphs from a presentation on the estimation of risk associated with an attenuation prediction is presented. Topics covered include: link failure - attenuation exceeding a specified threshold for a specified time interval or intervals; risk - the probability of one or more failures during the lifetime of the link or during a specified accounting interval; the problem - modeling the probability of attenuation by rainfall to provide a prediction of the attenuation threshold for a specified risk; and an accounting for the inadequacy of a model or models.

HZEFRG1: An energy-dependent semiempirical nuclear fragmentation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Townsend, Lawrence W.; Wilson, John W.; Tripathi, Ram K.; Norbury, John W.; Badavi, Francis F.; Khan, Ferdous

1993-01-01

Methods for calculating cross sections for the breakup of high-energy heavy ions by the combined nuclear and coulomb fields of the interacting nuclei are presented. The nuclear breakup contributions are estimated with an abrasion-ablation model of heavy ion fragmentation that includes an energy-dependent, mean free path. The electromagnetic dissociation contributions arising from the interacting coulomb fields are estimated by using Weizsacker-Williams theory extended to include electric dipole and electric quadrupole contributions. The complete computer code that implements the model is included as an appendix. Extensive comparisons of cross section predictions with available experimental data are made.

Estimation of streamflow for selected sites on the Carson and Truckee rivers in California and Nevada, 1944-80

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blodgett, J.C.; Oltmann, R.N.; Poeschel, K.R.

1984-01-01

Daily mean and monthly discharges were estimated for 10 sites on the Carson and Truckee Rivers for periods of incomplete records and for tributary sites affected by reservoir regulation. On the basis of the hydrologic characteristics, stream-flow data for a water year were grouped by month or season for subsequent regression analysis. In most cases, simple linear regressions adequately defined a relation of streamflow between gaging stations, but in some instances a nonlinear relation for several months of the water year was derived. Statistical data are presented to indicate the reliability of the estimated streamflow data. Records of discharges including historical and estimated data for the gaging stations for the water years 1944-80 are presented. (USGS)

Maximum Marginal Likelihood Estimation of a Monotonic Polynomial Generalized Partial Credit Model with Applications to Multiple Group Analysis.

PubMed

Falk, Carl F; Cai, Li

2016-06-01

We present a semi-parametric approach to estimating item response functions (IRF) useful when the true IRF does not strictly follow commonly used functions. Our approach replaces the linear predictor of the generalized partial credit model with a monotonic polynomial. The model includes the regular generalized partial credit model at the lowest order polynomial. Our approach extends Liang's (A semi-parametric approach to estimate IRFs, Unpublished doctoral dissertation, 2007) method for dichotomous item responses to the case of polytomous data. Furthermore, item parameter estimation is implemented with maximum marginal likelihood using the Bock-Aitkin EM algorithm, thereby facilitating multiple group analyses useful in operational settings. Our approach is demonstrated on both educational and psychological data. We present simulation results comparing our approach to more standard IRF estimation approaches and other non-parametric and semi-parametric alternatives.

Using open robust design models to estimate temporary emigration from capture-recapture data.

PubMed

Kendall, W L; Bjorkland, R

2001-12-01

Capture-recapture studies are crucial in many circumstances for estimating demographic parameters for wildlife and fish populations. Pollock's robust design, involving multiple sampling occasions per period of interest, provides several advantages over classical approaches. This includes the ability to estimate the probability of being present and available for detection, which in some situations is equivalent to breeding probability. We present a model for estimating availability for detection that relaxes two assumptions required in previous approaches. The first is that the sampled population is closed to additions and deletions across samples within a period of interest. The second is that each member of the population has the same probability of being available for detection in a given period. We apply our model to estimate survival and breeding probability in a study of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), where previous approaches are not appropriate.

Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) Mission Attitude Ground System Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sedlak, Joseph E.; Superfin, Emil; Raymond, Juan C.

2011-01-01

This paper presents an overview of the attitude ground system (AGS) currently under development for the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission. The primary responsibilities for the MMS AGS are definitive attitude determination, validation of the onboard attitude filter, and computation of certain parameters needed to improve maneuver performance. For these purposes, the ground support utilities include attitude and rate estimation for validation of the onboard estimates, sensor calibration, inertia tensor calibration, accelerometer bias estimation, center of mass estimation, and production of a definitive attitude history for use by the science teams. Much of the AGS functionality already exists in utilities used at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center with support heritage from many other missions, but new utilities are being created specifically for the MMS mission, such as for the inertia tensor, accelerometer bias, and center of mass estimation. Algorithms and test results for all the major AGS subsystems are presented here.

Using open robust design models to estimate temporary emigration from capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Bjorkland, R.

2001-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are crucial in many circumstances for estimating demographic parameters for wildlife and fish populations. Pollock's robust design, involving multiple sampling occasions per period of interest, provides several advantages over classical approaches. This includes the ability to estimate the probability of being present and available for detection, which in some situations is equivalent to breeding probability. We present a model for estimating availability for detection that relaxes two assumptions required in previous approaches. The first is that the sampled population is closed to additions and deletions across samples within a period of interest. The second is that each member of the population has the same probability of being available for detection in a given period. We apply our model to estimate survival and breeding probability in a study of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), where previous approaches are not appropriate.

Online Estimation of Model Parameters of Lithium-Ion Battery Using the Cubature Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Yong; Yan, Rusheng; Tian, Jindong; Zhou, Shijie; Hu, Chao

2017-11-01

Online estimation of state variables, including state-of-charge (SOC), state-of-energy (SOE) and state-of-health (SOH) is greatly crucial for the operation safety of lithium-ion battery. In order to improve estimation accuracy of these state variables, a precise battery model needs to be established. As the lithium-ion battery is a nonlinear time-varying system, the model parameters significantly vary with many factors, such as ambient temperature, discharge rate and depth of discharge, etc. This paper presents an online estimation method of model parameters for lithium-ion battery based on the cubature Kalman filter. The commonly used first-order resistor-capacitor equivalent circuit model is selected as the battery model, based on which the model parameters are estimated online. Experimental results show that the presented method can accurately track the parameters variation at different scenarios.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

2011-07-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, R.M.; Petracci, E.

2011-01-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates. PMID:21643476

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnes, C.; Ensminger, J.; O'Keefe, P.

This book presents papers on the use of wood fuels in Kenya. Topics considered include domestic energy consumption, historical aspects, the Kenyan economy, ecology, supply and demand, forests, aspects of energy consumption in a pastoral ecosystem, estimation of present and future demand for wood fuels, and energy source development.

Overview of Ongoing NRMRL GI Research

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation is an overview of ongoing NRMRL Green Infrastructure research and addresses the question: What do we need to know to present a cogent estimate of the value of Green Infrastructure? Discussions included are: stormwater well study, rain gardens and permeable su...

Retrospective Assessment of Cost Savings From Prevention

PubMed Central

Grosse, Scott D.; Berry, Robert J.; Tilford, J. Mick; Kucik, James E.; Waitzman, Norman J.

2016-01-01

Introduction Although fortification of food with folic acid has been calculated to be cost saving in the U.S., updated estimates are needed. This analysis calculates new estimates from the societal perspective of net cost savings per year associated with mandatory folic acid fortification of enriched cereal grain products in the U.S. that was implemented during 1997–1998. Methods Estimates of annual numbers of live-born spina bifida cases in 1995–1996 relative to 1999–2011 based on birth defects surveillance data were combined during 2015 with published estimates of the present value of lifetime direct costs updated in 2014 U.S. dollars for a live-born infant with spina bifida to estimate avoided direct costs and net cost savings. Results The fortification mandate is estimated to have reduced the annual number of U.S. live-born spina bifida cases by 767, with a lower-bound estimate of 614. The present value of mean direct lifetime cost per infant with spina bifida is estimated to be $791,900, or $577,000 excluding caregiving costs. Using a best estimate of numbers of avoided live-born spina bifida cases, fortification is estimated to reduce the present value of total direct costs for each year's birth cohort by $603 million more than the cost of fortification. A lower-bound estimate of cost savings using conservative assumptions, including the upper-bound estimate of fortification cost, is $299 million. Conclusions The estimates of cost savings are larger than previously reported, even using conservative assumptions. The analysis can also inform assessments of folic acid fortification in other countries. PMID:26790341

An Updated TRMM Composite Climatology of Tropical Rainfall and Its Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Jian-Jian; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Bolvin, David

2013-01-01

An updated 15-yr Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) composite climatology (TCC) is presented and evaluated. This climatology is based on a combination of individual rainfall estimates made with data from the primaryTRMMinstruments: theTRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the precipitation radar (PR). This combination climatology of passive microwave retrievals, radar-based retrievals, and an algorithm using both instruments simultaneously provides a consensus TRMM-based estimate of mean precipitation. The dispersion of the three estimates, as indicated by the standard deviation sigma among the estimates, is presented as a measure of confidence in the final estimate and as an estimate of the uncertainty thereof. The procedures utilized by the compositing technique, including adjustments and quality-control measures, are described. The results give a mean value of the TCC of 4.3mm day(exp -1) for the deep tropical ocean beltbetween 10 deg N and 10 deg S, with lower values outside that band. In general, the TCC values confirm ocean estimates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis, which is based on passive microwave results adjusted for sampling by infrared-based estimates. The pattern of uncertainty estimates shown by sigma is seen to be useful to indicate variations in confidence. Examples include differences between the eastern and western portions of the Pacific Ocean and high values in coastal and mountainous areas. Comparison of the TCC values (and the input products) to gauge analyses over land indicates the value of the radar-based estimates (small biases) and the limitations of the passive microwave algorithm (relatively large biases). Comparison with surface gauge information from western Pacific Ocean atolls shows a negative bias (16%) for all the TRMM products, although the representativeness of the atoll gauges of open-ocean rainfall is still in question.

Identification of dynamic systems, theory and formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maine, R. E.; Iliff, K. W.

1985-01-01

The problem of estimating parameters of dynamic systems is addressed in order to present the theoretical basis of system identification and parameter estimation in a manner that is complete and rigorous, yet understandable with minimal prerequisites. Maximum likelihood and related estimators are highlighted. The approach used requires familiarity with calculus, linear algebra, and probability, but does not require knowledge of stochastic processes or functional analysis. The treatment emphasizes unification of the various areas in estimation in dynamic systems is treated as a direct outgrowth of the static system theory. Topics covered include basic concepts and definitions; numerical optimization methods; probability; statistical estimators; estimation in static systems; stochastic processes; state estimation in dynamic systems; output error, filter error, and equation error methods of parameter estimation in dynamic systems, and the accuracy of the estimates.

A Geomagnetic Estimate of Mean Paleointensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voorhies, Coerte V.

2004-01-01

To test a statistical hypothesis about Earth's magnetic field against paleomagnetism, the present field is used to estimate time averaged paleointensity. The estimate used the modern magnetic multipole spectrum R(n), which gives the mean square induction represented by spherical harmonics of degree n averaged over the sphere of radius a = 6371.2 km. The hypothesis asserts that low degree multi-pole powers of the coresource field are distributed as chi-squared with 2n+1 degrees of freedom and expectation values, where c is the 3480 km radius of the Earth's core. (This is compatible with a usually mainly geocentric axial dipolar field). Amplitude K is estimated by fitting theoretical to observational spectra through degree 12. The resulting calibrated expectation spectrum is summed through degree 12 to estimate expected square intensity F(exp 2). The sum also estimates F(exp 2) averaged over geologic time, in so far as the present magnetic spectrum is a fair sample of that generated in the past by core geodynamic processes. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Hardware design and implementation of fast DOA estimation method based on multicore DSP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Rui; Zhao, Yingxiao; Zhang, Yue; Lin, Qianqiang; Chen, Zengping

2016-10-01

In this paper, we present a high-speed real-time signal processing hardware platform based on multicore digital signal processor (DSP). The real-time signal processing platform shows several excellent characteristics including high performance computing, low power consumption, large-capacity data storage and high speed data transmission, which make it able to meet the constraint of real-time direction of arrival (DOA) estimation. To reduce the high computational complexity of DOA estimation algorithm, a novel real-valued MUSIC estimator is used. The algorithm is decomposed into several independent steps and the time consumption of each step is counted. Based on the statistics of the time consumption, we present a new parallel processing strategy to distribute the task of DOA estimation to different cores of the real-time signal processing hardware platform. Experimental results demonstrate that the high processing capability of the signal processing platform meets the constraint of real-time direction of arrival (DOA) estimation.

Incidence of all-cause adult community-acquired pneumonia in primary care settings in France.

PubMed

Partouche, H; Lepoutre, A; Vaure, C Buffel du; Poisson, T; Toubiana, L; Gilberg, S

2018-04-12

To estimate the incidence of all-cause outpatient community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in adults in France from a national prospective observational study of CAP management in general practice (CAPA). Patients aged over 18 years presenting with signs or symptoms indicative of CAP associated with recent onset of unilateral crackles on auscultation and/or a new opacity on chest X-ray were included in the CAPA study. An ancillary survey (AIMSIS) aiming at identifying family physicians' difficulties in including patients and at collecting their opinion on the use of an electronic case report form, determined the number of non-included eligible patients. A three-step analysis was then performed, including computation of the total number of eligible patients, adjustment for seasonality, and extrapolation to the French FP population using indirect standardization to adjust for differences in characteristics between CAPA FPs and French FPs. Between September 2011 and July 2012, 267 (63%) CAPA investigators included 886 CAP patients. Most patients presented with mild CAP. The rates of hospitalization and one-month case fatality were 7% and 0.3%, respectively. Data from 336 (79%) AIMSIS investigators identified 641 additional patients and estimated at 234,023 the number of CAP patients per year (incidence of 4.7 per 1000 persons per year). Using a pragmatic case definition of CAP patients, this study estimated an incidence of 4.7 per 1000 persons per year that is in the lower half of the range of estimated incidences reported in primary care settings in industrialized countries. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phillips, William Scott

This seminar presentation describes amplitude models and yield estimations that look at the data in order to inform legislation. The following points were brought forth in the summary: global models that will predict three-component amplitudes (R-T-Z) were produced; Q models match regional geology; corrected source spectra can be used for discrimination and yield estimation; three-component data increase coverage and reduce scatter in source spectral estimates; three-component efforts must include distance-dependent effects; a community effort on instrument calibration is needed.

Using the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version in sexual violence risk assessments: Updated risk categories and recidivism estimates from a multisite sample of treated sexual offenders.

PubMed

Olver, Mark E; Mundt, James C; Thornton, David; Beggs Christofferson, Sarah M; Kingston, Drew A; Sowden, Justina N; Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Gordon, Audrey; Wong, Stephen C P

2018-04-30

The present study sought to develop updated risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003-2017), a sexual offender risk assessment and treatment planning tool. The overarching purpose was to increase the clarity and accuracy of communicating risk assessment information that includes a systematic incorporation of new information (i.e., change) to modify risk estimates. Four treated samples of sexual offenders with VRS-SO pretreatment, posttreatment, and Static-99R ratings were combined with a minimum follow-up period of 10-years postrelease (N = 913). Logistic regression was used to model 5- and 10-year sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism estimates across 6 different regression models employing specific risk and change score information from the VRS-SO and/or Static-99R. A rationale is presented for clinical applications of select models and the necessity of controlling for baseline risk when utilizing change information across repeated assessments. Information concerning relative risk (percentiles) and absolute risk (recidivism estimates) is integrated with common risk assessment language guidelines to generate new risk categories for the VRS-SO. Guidelines for model selection and forensic clinical application of the risk estimates are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

[An essay on Quebec's demographic development from 1534 to 2034].

PubMed

Charbonneau, H

1984-04-01

A general review of the development of the population of Quebec since 1534 is presented in the form of separate summaries for each 50-year period. Topics discussed include sources of data, estimates of the North American Indian population, and estimates of immigration. Some consideration is given to projections to the year 2034. (summary in ENG, SPA)

Nomographs for estimating surface fire behavior characteristics

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott

2007-01-01

A complete set of nomographs for estimating surface fire rate of spread and flame length for the original 13 and new 40 fire behavior fuel models is presented. The nomographs allow calculation of spread rate and flame length for wind in any direction with respect to slope and allow for nonheading spread directions. Basic instructions for use are included.

Net Operating Working Capital, Capital Budgeting, and Cash Budgets: A Teaching Example

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tuner, James A.

2016-01-01

Many introductory finance texts present information on the capital budgeting process, including estimation of project cash flows. Typically, estimation of project cash flows begins with a calculation of net income. Getting from net income to cash flows requires accounting for non-cash items such as depreciation. Also important is the effect of…

Undergraduate Financial Aid Estimates by Type of Institution in 2011-12. Web Tables. NCES 2014-169

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ifill, Nicole; Shaw, Stacy

2013-01-01

These Web Tables present estimates of tuition and fees, the total price of attendance (tuition and fees plus living expenses), and several types and combinations of financial aid packages that undergraduates received in 2011-12. The price of an undergraduate education varies widely depending on a number of characteristics, including institution…

Violence exposure among children with disabilities.

PubMed

Sullivan, Patricia M

2009-06-01

The focus of this paper is children with disabilities exposed to a broad range of violence types including child maltreatment, domestic violence, community violence, and war and terrorism. Because disability research must be interpreted on the basis of the definitional paradigm employed, definitions of disability status and current prevalence estimates as a function of a given paradigm are initially considered. These disability paradigms include those used in federal, education, juvenile justice, and health care arenas. Current prevalence estimates of childhood disability in the U.S. are presented within the frameworks of these varying definitions of disability status in childhood. Summaries of research from 2000 to 2008 on the four types of violence victimization addressed among children with disabilities are presented and directions for future research suggested.

Preliminary estimates of radiation exposures for manned interplanetary missions from anomalously large solar flare events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Townsend, Lawrence W.; Nealy, John E.; Wilson, John W.

1988-01-01

Preliminary estimates of radiation exposures for manned interplanetary missions resulting from anomalously large solar flare events are presented. The calculations use integral particle fluences for the February 1956, November 1960, and August 1972 events as inputs into the Langley Research Center nucleon transport code BRYNTRN. This deterministic code transports primary and secondary nucleons (protons and neutrons) through any number of layers of target material of arbitrary thickness and composition. Contributions from target nucleus fragmentation and recoil are also included. Estimates of 5 cm depth doses and dose equivalents in tissue are presented behind various thicknesses of aluminum, water, and composite aluminum/water shields for each of the three solar flare events.

Method for Estimating Water Withdrawals for Livestock in the United States, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelace, John K.

2009-01-01

Livestock water use includes ground water and surface water associated with livestock watering, feedlots, dairy operations, and other on-farm needs. The water may be used for drinking, cooling, sanitation, waste disposal, and other needs related to the animals. Estimates of water withdrawals for livestock are needed for water planning and management. This report documents a method used to estimate withdrawals of fresh ground water and surface water for livestock in 2005 for each county and county equivalent in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Categories of livestock included dairy cattle, beef and other cattle, hogs and pigs, laying hens, broilers and other chickens, turkeys, sheep and lambs, all goats, and horses (including ponies, mules, burros, and donkeys). Use of the method described in this report could result in more consistent water-withdrawal estimates for livestock that can be used by water managers and planners to determine water needs and trends across the United States. Water withdrawals for livestock in 2005 were estimated by using water-use coefficients, in gallons per head per day for each animal type, and livestock-population data. Coefficients for various livestock for most States were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey water-use program personnel or U.S. Geological Survey water-use publications. When no coefficient was available for an animal type in a State, the median value of reported coefficients for that animal was used. Livestock-population data were provided by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. County estimates were further divided into ground-water and surface-water withdrawals for each county and county equivalent. County totals from 2005 were compared to county totals from 1995 and 2000. Large deviations from 1995 or 2000 livestock withdrawal estimates were investigated and generally were due to comparison with reported withdrawals, differences in estimation techniques, differences in livestock coefficients, or use of livestock-population data from different sources. The results of this study were distributed to U.S. Geological Survey water-use program personnel in each State during 2007. Water-use program personnel are required to submit estimated withdrawals for all categories of use in their States to the National Water-Use Information Program for inclusion in a national report describing water use in the United States during 2005. Water-use program personnel had the option of submitting these estimates, a modified version of these estimates, or their own set of estimates or reported data. Estimated withdrawals resulting from the method described in this report are not presented herein to avoid potential inconsistencies with estimated withdrawals for livestock that will be presented in the national report, as different methods used by water-use personnel may result in different withdrawal estimates. Estimated withdrawals also are not presented to avoid potential disclosure of data for individual livestock operations.

Accuracy of the visual estimation method as a predictor of food intake in Alzheimer's patients provided with different types of food.

PubMed

Amano, Nobuko; Nakamura, Tomiyo

2018-02-01

The visual estimation method is commonly used in hospitals and other care facilities to evaluate food intake through estimation of plate waste. In Japan, no previous studies have investigated the validity and reliability of this method under the routine conditions of a hospital setting. The present study aimed to evaluate the validity and reliability of the visual estimation method, in long-term inpatients with different levels of eating disability caused by Alzheimer's disease. The patients were provided different therapeutic diets presented in various food types. This study was performed between February and April 2013, and 82 patients with Alzheimer's disease were included. Plate waste was evaluated for the 3 main daily meals, for a total of 21 days, 7 consecutive days during each of the 3 months, originating a total of 4851 meals, from which 3984 were included. Plate waste was measured by the nurses through the visual estimation method, and by the hospital's registered dietitians through the actual measurement method. The actual measurement method was first validated to serve as a reference, and the level of agreement between both methods was then determined. The month, time of day, type of food provided, and patients' physical characteristics were considered for analysis. For the 3984 meals included in the analysis, the level of agreement between the measurement methods was 78.4%. Disagreement of measurements consisted of 3.8% of underestimation and 17.8% of overestimation. Cronbach's α (0.60, P < 0.001) indicated that the reliability of the visual estimation method was within the acceptable range. The visual estimation method was found to be a valid and reliable method for estimating food intake in patients with different levels of eating impairment. The successful implementation and use of the method depends upon adequate training and motivation of the nurses and care staff involved. Copyright © 2017 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of sample size and testing power (Part 4).

PubMed

Hu, Liang-ping; Bao, Xiao-lei; Guan, Xue; Zhou, Shi-guo

2012-01-01

Sample size estimation is necessary for any experimental or survey research. An appropriate estimation of sample size based on known information and statistical knowledge is of great significance. This article introduces methods of sample size estimation of difference test for data with the design of one factor with two levels, including sample size estimation formulas and realization based on the formulas and the POWER procedure of SAS software for quantitative data and qualitative data with the design of one factor with two levels. In addition, this article presents examples for analysis, which will play a leading role for researchers to implement the repetition principle during the research design phase.

Stable Algorithm For Estimating Airdata From Flush Surface Pressure Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitmore, Stephen, A. (Inventor); Cobleigh, Brent R. (Inventor); Haering, Edward A., Jr. (Inventor)

2001-01-01

An airdata estimation and evaluation system and method, including a stable algorithm for estimating airdata from nonintrusive surface pressure measurements. The airdata estimation and evaluation system is preferably implemented in a flush airdata sensing (FADS) system. The system and method of the present invention take a flow model equation and transform it into a triples formulation equation. The triples formulation equation eliminates the pressure related states from the flow model equation by strategically taking the differences of three surface pressures, known as triples. This triples formulation equation is then used to accurately estimate and compute vital airdata from nonintrusive surface pressure measurements.

Entry Debris Field Estimation Methods and Application to Compton Gamma Ray Observatory Disposal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mrozinski, Richard B.

2001-01-01

For public safety reasons, the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO) was intentionally deorbited on June 4, 2000. This deorbit was NASA's first intentional controlled deorbit of a satellite, and more will come including the eventual deorbit of the International Space Station. To maximize public safety, satellite deorbit planning requires conservative estimates of the debris footprint size and location. These estimates are needed to properly design a deorbit sequence that places the debris footprint over unpopulated areas, including protection for deorbit contingencies. This paper details a method for estimating the length (range), width (crossrange), and location of entry and breakup debris footprints. This method utilizes a three degree-of-freedom Monte Carlo simulation incorporating uncertainties in all aspects of the problem, including vehicle and environment uncertainties. The method incorporates a range of debris characteristics based on historical data in addition to any vehicle-specific debris catalog information. This paper describes the method in detail, and presents results of its application as used in planning the deorbit of the CGRO.

Estimating post-marketing exposure to pharmaceutical products using ex-factory distribution data.

PubMed

Telfair, Tamara; Mohan, Aparna K; Shahani, Shalini; Klincewicz, Stephen; Atsma, Willem Jan; Thomas, Adrian; Fife, Daniel

2006-10-01

The pharmaceutical industry has an obligation to identify adverse reactions to drug products during all phases of drug development, including the post-marketing period. Estimates of population exposure to pharmaceutical products are important to the post-marketing surveillance of drugs, and provide a context for assessing the various risks and benefits, including drug safety, associated with drug treatment. This paper describes a systematic approach to estimating post-marketing drug exposure using ex-factory shipment data to estimate the quantity of medication available, and dosage information (stratified by indication or other factors as appropriate) to convert the quantity of medication to person time of exposure. Unlike the non-standardized methods often used to estimate exposure, this approach provides estimates whose calculations are explicit, documented, and consistent across products and over time. The methods can readily be carried out by an individual or small group specializing in this function, and lend themselves to automation. The present estimation approach is practical and relatively uncomplicated to implement. We believe it is a useful innovation. Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Finding and estimating chemical property data for environmental assessment.

PubMed

Boethling, Robert S; Howard, Philip H; Meylan, William M

2004-10-01

The ability to predict the behavior of a chemical substance in a biological or environmental system largely depends on knowledge of the physicochemical properties and reactivity of that substance. We focus here on properties, with the objective of providing practical guidance for finding measured values and using estimation methods when necessary. Because currently available computer software often makes it more convenient to estimate than to retrieve measured values, we try to discourage irrational exuberance for these tools by including comprehensive lists of Internet and hard-copy data resources. Guidance for assessors is presented in the form of a process to obtain data that includes establishment of chemical identity, identification of data sources, assessment of accuracy and reliability, substructure searching for analogs when experimental data are unavailable, and estimation from chemical structure. Regarding property estimation, we cover estimation from close structural analogs in addition to broadly applicable methods requiring only the chemical structure. For the latter, we list and briefly discuss the most widely used methods. Concluding thoughts are offered concerning appropriate directions for future work on estimation methods, again with an emphasis on practical applications.

Vision-based stress estimation model for steel frame structures with rigid links

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Hyo Seon; Park, Jun Su; Oh, Byung Kwan

2017-07-01

This paper presents a stress estimation model for the safety evaluation of steel frame structures with rigid links using a vision-based monitoring system. In this model, the deformed shape of a structure under external loads is estimated via displacements measured by a motion capture system (MCS), which is a non-contact displacement measurement device. During the estimation of the deformed shape, the effective lengths of the rigid link ranges in the frame structure are identified. The radius of the curvature of the structural member to be monitored is calculated using the estimated deformed shape and is employed to estimate stress. Using MCS in the presented model, the safety of a structure can be assessed gauge-freely. In addition, because the stress is directly extracted from the radius of the curvature obtained from the measured deformed shape, information on the loadings and boundary conditions of the structure are not required. Furthermore, the model, which includes the identification of the effective lengths of the rigid links, can consider the influences of the stiffness of the connection and support on the deformation in the stress estimation. To verify the applicability of the presented model, static loading tests for a steel frame specimen were conducted. By comparing the stress estimated by the model with the measured stress, the validity of the model was confirmed.

Fish assemblages

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarvey, Daniel J.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Li, Hiram W.; Li, Judith; Hauer, F. Richard; Lamberti, G.A.

2017-01-01

Methods to sample fishes in stream ecosystems and to analyze the raw data, focusing primarily on assemblage-level (all fish species combined) analyses, are presented in this chapter. We begin with guidance on sample site selection, permitting for fish collection, and information-gathering steps to be completed prior to conducting fieldwork. Basic sampling methods (visual surveying, electrofishing, and seining) are presented with specific instructions for estimating population sizes via visual, capture-recapture, and depletion surveys, in addition to new guidance on environmental DNA (eDNA) methods. Steps to process fish specimens in the field including the use of anesthesia and preservation of whole specimens or tissue samples (for genetic or stable isotope analysis) are also presented. Data analysis methods include characterization of size-structure within populations, estimation of species richness and diversity, and application of fish functional traits. We conclude with three advanced topics in assemblage-level analysis: multidimensional scaling (MDS), ecological networks, and loop analysis.

Quantification of Microbial Phenotypes

PubMed Central

Martínez, Verónica S.; Krömer, Jens O.

2016-01-01

Metabolite profiling technologies have improved to generate close to quantitative metabolomics data, which can be employed to quantitatively describe the metabolic phenotype of an organism. Here, we review the current technologies available for quantitative metabolomics, present their advantages and drawbacks, and the current challenges to generate fully quantitative metabolomics data. Metabolomics data can be integrated into metabolic networks using thermodynamic principles to constrain the directionality of reactions. Here we explain how to estimate Gibbs energy under physiological conditions, including examples of the estimations, and the different methods for thermodynamics-based network analysis. The fundamentals of the methods and how to perform the analyses are described. Finally, an example applying quantitative metabolomics to a yeast model by 13C fluxomics and thermodynamics-based network analysis is presented. The example shows that (1) these two methods are complementary to each other; and (2) there is a need to take into account Gibbs energy errors. Better estimations of metabolic phenotypes will be obtained when further constraints are included in the analysis. PMID:27941694

Kalman-Filter-Based Orientation Determination Using Inertial/Magnetic Sensors: Observability Analysis and Performance Evaluation

PubMed Central

Sabatini, Angelo Maria

2011-01-01

In this paper we present a quaternion-based Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) for estimating the three-dimensional orientation of a rigid body. The EKF exploits the measurements from an Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) that is integrated with a tri-axial magnetic sensor. Magnetic disturbances and gyro bias errors are modeled and compensated by including them in the filter state vector. We employ the observability rank criterion based on Lie derivatives to verify the conditions under which the nonlinear system that describes the process of motion tracking by the IMU is observable, namely it may provide sufficient information for performing the estimation task with bounded estimation errors. The observability conditions are that the magnetic field, perturbed by first-order Gauss-Markov magnetic variations, and the gravity vector are not collinear and that the IMU is subject to some angular motions. Computer simulations and experimental testing are presented to evaluate the algorithm performance, including when the observability conditions are critical. PMID:22163689

Structural Equation Modeling: A Framework for Ocular and Other Medical Sciences Research

PubMed Central

Christ, Sharon L.; Lee, David J.; Lam, Byron L.; Diane, Zheng D.

2017-01-01

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a modeling framework that encompasses many types of statistical models and can accommodate a variety of estimation and testing methods. SEM has been used primarily in social sciences but is increasingly used in epidemiology, public health, and the medical sciences. SEM provides many advantages for the analysis of survey and clinical data, including the ability to model latent constructs that may not be directly observable. Another major feature is simultaneous estimation of parameters in systems of equations that may include mediated relationships, correlated dependent variables, and in some instances feedback relationships. SEM allows for the specification of theoretically holistic models because multiple and varied relationships may be estimated together in the same model. SEM has recently expanded by adding generalized linear modeling capabilities that include the simultaneous estimation of parameters of different functional form for outcomes with different distributions in the same model. Therefore, mortality modeling and other relevant health outcomes may be evaluated. Random effects estimation using latent variables has been advanced in the SEM literature and software. In addition, SEM software has increased estimation options. Therefore, modern SEM is quite general and includes model types frequently used by health researchers, including generalized linear modeling, mixed effects linear modeling, and population average modeling. This article does not present any new information. It is meant as an introduction to SEM and its uses in ocular and other health research. PMID:24467557

Satellite Power Systems (SPS) space transportation cost analysis and evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

A picture of Space Power Systems space transportation costs at the present time is given with respect to accuracy as stated, reasonableness of the methods used, assumptions made, and uncertainty associated with the estimates. The approach used consists of examining space transportation costs from several perspectives to perform a variety of sensitivity analyses or reviews and examine the findings in terms of internal consistency and external comparison with analogous systems. These approaches are summarized as a theoretical and historical review including a review of stated and unstated assumptions used to derive the costs, and a performance or technical review. These reviews cover the overall transportation program as well as the individual vehicles proposed. The review of overall cost assumptions is the principal means used for estimating the cost uncertainty derived. The cost estimates used as the best current estimate are included.

Tracking Control of Mobile Robots Localized via Chained Fusion of Discrete and Continuous Epipolar Geometry, IMU and Odometry.

PubMed

Tick, David; Satici, Aykut C; Shen, Jinglin; Gans, Nicholas

2013-08-01

This paper presents a novel navigation and control system for autonomous mobile robots that includes path planning, localization, and control. A unique vision-based pose and velocity estimation scheme utilizing both the continuous and discrete forms of the Euclidean homography matrix is fused with inertial and optical encoder measurements to estimate the pose, orientation, and velocity of the robot and ensure accurate localization and control signals. A depth estimation system is integrated in order to overcome the loss of scale inherent in vision-based estimation. A path following control system is introduced that is capable of guiding the robot along a designated curve. Stability analysis is provided for the control system and experimental results are presented that prove the combined localization and control system performs with high accuracy.

The monetary burden of cystic echinococcosis in Iran.

PubMed

Fasihi Harandi, Majid; Budke, Christine M; Rostami, Sima

2012-01-01

Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is a globally distributed parasitic infection of humans and livestock. The disease is of significant medical and economic importance in many developing countries, including Iran. However, the socioeconomic impact of the disease, in most endemic countries, is not fully understood. The purpose of the present study was to determine the monetary burden of CE in Iran. Epidemiological data, including prevalence and incidence of CE in humans and animals, were obtained from regional hospitals, the scientific literature, and official government reports. Economic data relating to human and animal disease, including cost of treatment, productivity losses, and livestock production losses were obtained from official national and international datasets. Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to represent uncertainty in input parameters. Mean number of surgical CE cases per year for 2000-2009 was estimated at 1,295. The number of asymptomatic individuals living in the country was estimated at 635,232 (95% Credible Interval, CI 149,466-1,120,998). The overall annual cost of CE in Iran was estimated at US$232.3 million (95% CI US$103.1-397.8 million), including both direct and indirect costs. The cost associated with human CE was estimated at US$93.39 million (95% CI US$6.1-222.7 million) and the annual cost associated with CE in livestock was estimated at US$132 million (95% CI US$61.8-246.5 million). The cost per surgical human case was estimated at US$1,539. CE has a considerable economic impact on Iran, with the cost of the disease approximated at 0.03% of the country's gross domestic product. Establishment of a CE surveillance system and implementation of a control program are necessary to reduce the economic burden of CE on the country. Cost-benefit analysis of different control programs is recommended, incorporating present knowledge of the economic losses due to CE in Iran.

The Monetary Burden of Cystic Echinococcosis in Iran

PubMed Central

Fasihi Harandi, Majid; Budke, Christine M.; Rostami, Sima

2012-01-01

Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is a globally distributed parasitic infection of humans and livestock. The disease is of significant medical and economic importance in many developing countries, including Iran. However, the socioeconomic impact of the disease, in most endemic countries, is not fully understood. The purpose of the present study was to determine the monetary burden of CE in Iran. Epidemiological data, including prevalence and incidence of CE in humans and animals, were obtained from regional hospitals, the scientific literature, and official government reports. Economic data relating to human and animal disease, including cost of treatment, productivity losses, and livestock production losses were obtained from official national and international datasets. Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to represent uncertainty in input parameters. Mean number of surgical CE cases per year for 2000–2009 was estimated at 1,295. The number of asymptomatic individuals living in the country was estimated at 635,232 (95% Credible Interval, CI 149,466–1,120,998). The overall annual cost of CE in Iran was estimated at US$232.3 million (95% CI US$103.1–397.8 million), including both direct and indirect costs. The cost associated with human CE was estimated at US$93.39 million (95% CI US$6.1–222.7 million) and the annual cost associated with CE in livestock was estimated at US$132 million (95% CI US$61.8–246.5 million). The cost per surgical human case was estimated at US$1,539. CE has a considerable economic impact on Iran, with the cost of the disease approximated at 0.03% of the country's gross domestic product. Establishment of a CE surveillance system and implementation of a control program are necessary to reduce the economic burden of CE on the country. Cost-benefit analysis of different control programs is recommended, incorporating present knowledge of the economic losses due to CE in Iran. PMID:23209857

Methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter F in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Roy; Sando, Steven K.; McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.

2016-04-05

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to update methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on peak-flow data at streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2011. The methods allow estimation of peak-flow frequencies (that is, peak-flow magnitudes, in cubic feet per second, associated with annual exceedance probabilities of 66.7, 50, 42.9, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent) at ungaged sites. The annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively.Regional regression analysis is a primary focus of Chapter F of this Scientific Investigations Report, and regression equations for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented. The regression equations are based on analysis of peak-flow frequencies and basin characteristics at 537 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana and were developed using generalized least squares regression or weighted least squares regression.All of the data used in calculating basin characteristics that were included as explanatory variables in the regression equations were developed for and are available through the USGS StreamStats application (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/) for Montana. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application that was created by the USGS to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resource planning and management. The primary purpose of the Montana StreamStats application is to provide estimates of basin characteristics and streamflow characteristics for user-selected ungaged sites on Montana streams. The regional regression equations presented in this report chapter can be conveniently solved using the Montana StreamStats application.Selected results from this study were compared with results of previous studies. For most hydrologic regions, the regression equations reported for this study had lower mean standard errors of prediction (in percent) than the previously reported regression equations for Montana. The equations presented for this study are considered to be an improvement on the previously reported equations primarily because this study (1) included 13 more years of peak-flow data; (2) included 35 more streamflow-gaging stations than previous studies; (3) used a detailed geographic information system (GIS)-based definition of the regulation status of streamflow-gaging stations, which allowed better determination of the unregulated peak-flow records that are appropriate for use in the regional regression analysis; (4) included advancements in GIS and remote-sensing technologies, which allowed more convenient calculation of basin characteristics and investigation of many more candidate basin characteristics; and (5) included advancements in computational and analytical methods, which allowed more thorough and consistent data analysis.This report chapter also presents other methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites. Two methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites located on the same streams as streamflow-gaging stations are described. Additionally, envelope curves relating maximum recorded annual peak flows to contributing drainage area for each of the eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented and compared to a national envelope curve. In addition to providing general information on characteristics of large peak flows, the regional envelope curves can be used to assess the reasonableness of peak-flow frequency estimates determined using the regression equations.

Improved Analysis of GW150914 Using a Fully Spin-Precessing Waveform Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Arceneaux, C. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barclay, S. E.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bavigadda, V.; Bazzan, M.; Bejger, M.; Bell, A. S.; Berger, B. K.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bogan, C.; Bohe, A.; Bond, C.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; Broida, J. E.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Brunett, S.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cabero, M.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Callister, T.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Casanueva Diaz, C.; Casentini, J.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Cerboni Baiardi, L.; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Cheeseboro, B. D.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, C.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, S.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M.; Conte, A.; Conti, L.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Cowan, E. E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Craig, K.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Darman, N. S.; Dasgupta, A.; Da Silva Costa, C. F.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; De, S.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; De Laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; De Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Devine, R. C.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Giovanni, M.; Di Girolamo, T.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Douglas, R.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Ducrot, M.; Dwyer, S. E.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Engels, W.; Essick, R. C.; Etienne, Z.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Everett, R.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Fang, Q.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Fauchon-Jones, E.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Fenyvesi, E.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M.; Fournier, J.-D.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H. A. G.; Gaebel, S.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gaur, G.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Geng, P.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghosh, Abhirup; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.; Glaefke, A.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gonzalez Castro, J. M.; Gopakumar, A.; Gordon, N. A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S. E.; Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Grado, A.; Graef, C.; Graff, P. B.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J. J.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Henry, J.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hofman, D.; Holt, K.; Holz, D. E.; Hopkins, P.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huang, S.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J.-M.; Isi, M.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jang, H.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jian, L.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Johnson-McDaniel, N. K.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; K, Haris; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Kapadia, S. J.; Karki, S.; Karvinen, K. S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kéfélian, F.; Kehl, M. S.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kells, W.; Kennedy, R.; Key, J. S.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan, S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, Chi-Woong; Kim, Chunglee; Kim, J.; Kim, K.; Kim, N.; Kim, W.; Kim, Y.-M.; Kimbrell, S. J.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kissel, J. S.; Klein, B.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Kringel, V.; Królak, A.; Krueger, C.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Lackey, B. D.; Landry, M.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lasky, P. D.; Laxen, M.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, K.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Lewis, J. B.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lombardi, A. L.; London, L. T.; Lord, J. E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lousto, C. O.; Lovelace, G.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Magaña Zertuche, L.; Magee, R. M.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martynov, D. V.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Mastrogiovanni, S.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McRae, T.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E. L.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Metzdorff, R.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, A. L.; Miller, A.; Miller, B. B.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B. C.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Murphy, D. J.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nayak, R. K.; Nedkova, K.; Nelemans, G.; Nelson, T. J. N.; Neri, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Patrick, Z.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Perri, L. M.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O. J.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poe, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Price, L. R.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Qiu, S.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajan, C.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Re, V.; Read, J.; Reed, C. M.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Ricci, F.; Riles, K.; Rizzo, M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, R.; Romanov, G.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Sakellariadou, M.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sandeen, B.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O. E. S.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Schilling, R.; Schmidt, J.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schönbeck, A.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Setyawati, Y.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaffer, T.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shaltev, M.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sieniawska, M.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, N. D.; Smith, R. J. E.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stevenson, S. P.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Stratta, G.; Strauss, N. A.; Strigin, S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sunil, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepańczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, R.; Theeg, T.; Thirugnanasambandam, M. P.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toland, K.; Tomlinson, C.; Tonelli, M.; Tornasi, Z.; Torres, C. V.; Torrie, C. I.; Töyrä, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifirò, D.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tse, M.; Turconi, M.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van der Sluys, M. V.; van Heijningen, J. V.; Vano-Vinuales, A.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vaulin, R.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D. V.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L. E.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.; Wang, Y.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Weßels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whiting, B. F.; Williams, R. D.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Woehler, J.; Worden, J.; Wright, J. L.; Wu, D. S.; Wu, G.; Yablon, J.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yu, H.; Yvert, M.; ZadroŻny, A.; Zangrando, L.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zuraw, S. E.; Zweizig, J.; Boyle, M.; Brügmann, B.; Campanelli, M.; Chu, T.; Clark, M.; Haas, R.; Hemberger, D.; Hinder, I.; Kidder, L. E.; Kinsey, M.; Laguna, P.; Ossokine, S.; Pan, Y.; Röver, C.; Scheel, M.; Szilagyi, B.; Teukolsky, S.; Zlochower, Y.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration

2016-10-01

This paper presents updated estimates of source parameters for GW150914, a binary black-hole coalescence event detected by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) in 2015 [Abbott et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 061102 (2016).]. Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).] presented parameter estimation of the source using a 13-dimensional, phenomenological precessing-spin model (precessing IMRPhenom) and an 11-dimensional nonprecessing effective-one-body (EOB) model calibrated to numerical-relativity simulations, which forces spin alignment (nonprecessing EOBNR). Here, we present new results that include a 15-dimensional precessing-spin waveform model (precessing EOBNR) developed within the EOB formalism. We find good agreement with the parameters estimated previously [Abbott et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).], and we quote updated component masses of 35-3+5 M⊙ and 3 0-4+3 M⊙ (where errors correspond to 90% symmetric credible intervals). We also present slightly tighter constraints on the dimensionless spin magnitudes of the two black holes, with a primary spin estimate <0.65 and a secondary spin estimate <0.75 at 90% probability. Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).] estimated the systematic parameter-extraction errors due to waveform-model uncertainty by combining the posterior probability densities of precessing IMRPhenom and nonprecessing EOBNR. Here, we find that the two precessing-spin models are in closer agreement, suggesting that these systematic errors are smaller than previously quoted.

Incorporating indirect costs into a cost-benefit analysis of laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding.

PubMed

Finkelstein, Eric A; Allaire, Benjamin T; Dibonaventura, Marco Dacosta; Burgess, Somali M

2012-01-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the time to breakeven and 5-year net costs of laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB) taking both direct and indirect costs and cost savings into account. Estimates of direct cost savings from LAGB were available from the literature. Although longitudinal data on indirect cost savings were not available, these estimates were generated by quantifying the relationship between medical expenditures and absenteeism and between medical expenditures and presenteeism (reduced on-the-job productivity) and combining these elasticity estimates with estimates of the direct cost savings to generate total savings. These savings were then combined with the direct and indirect costs of the procedure to quantify net savings. By including indirect costs, the time to breakeven was reduced by half a year, from 16 to 14 quarters. After 5 years, net savings in medical expenditures from a gastric banding procedure were estimated to be $4970 (±$3090). Including absenteeism increased savings to $6180 (±$3550). Savings were further increased to $10,960 (±$5864) when both absenteeism and presenteeism estimates were included. This study presented a novel approach for including absenteeism and presenteeism estimates in cost-benefit analyses. Application of the approach to gastric banding among surgery-eligible obese employees revealed that the inclusion of indirect costs and cost savings improves the business case for the procedure. This approach can easily be extended to other populations and treatments. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Retrospective Assessment of Cost Savings From Prevention: Folic Acid Fortification and Spina Bifida in the U.S.

PubMed

Grosse, Scott D; Berry, Robert J; Mick Tilford, J; Kucik, James E; Waitzman, Norman J

2016-05-01

Although fortification of food with folic acid has been calculated to be cost saving in the U.S., updated estimates are needed. This analysis calculates new estimates from the societal perspective of net cost savings per year associated with mandatory folic acid fortification of enriched cereal grain products in the U.S. that was implemented during 1997-1998. Estimates of annual numbers of live-born spina bifida cases in 1995-1996 relative to 1999-2011 based on birth defects surveillance data were combined during 2015 with published estimates of the present value of lifetime direct costs updated in 2014 U.S. dollars for a live-born infant with spina bifida to estimate avoided direct costs and net cost savings. The fortification mandate is estimated to have reduced the annual number of U.S. live-born spina bifida cases by 767, with a lower-bound estimate of 614. The present value of mean direct lifetime cost per infant with spina bifida is estimated to be $791,900, or $577,000 excluding caregiving costs. Using a best estimate of numbers of avoided live-born spina bifida cases, fortification is estimated to reduce the present value of total direct costs for each year's birth cohort by $603 million more than the cost of fortification. A lower-bound estimate of cost savings using conservative assumptions, including the upper-bound estimate of fortification cost, is $299 million. The estimates of cost savings are larger than previously reported, even using conservative assumptions. The analysis can also inform assessments of folic acid fortification in other countries. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Propellant Management and Conditioning within the X-34 Main Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, T. M.; McDonald, J. P.; Hedayat, A.; Knight, K. C.; Champion, R. H., Jr.

1998-01-01

The X-34 hypersonic flight vehicle is currently under development by Orbital Sciences Corporation (Orbital). The Main Propulsion ystem as been designed around the liquid propellant Fastrac rocket engine currently under development at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. This paper presents analyses of the MPS subsystems used to manage the liquid propellants. These subsystems include the propellant tanks, the tank vent/relief subsystem, and the dump/fill/drain subsystem. Analyses include LOX tank chill and fill time estimates, LOX boil-off estimates, propellant conditioning simulations, and transient propellant dump simulations.

Computer code for estimating installed performance of aircraft gas turbine engines. Volume 3: Library of maps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kowalski, E. J.

1979-01-01

A computerized method which utilizes the engine performance data and estimates the installed performance of aircraft gas turbine engines is presented. This installation includes: engine weight and dimensions, inlet and nozzle internal performance and drag, inlet and nacelle weight, and nacelle drag. The use of two data base files to represent the engine and the inlet/nozzle/aftbody performance characteristics is discussed. The existing library of performance characteristics for inlets and nozzle/aftbodies and an example of the 1000 series of engine data tables is presented.

Solid State Lasers from an Efficiency Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnes, Norman P.

2007-01-01

Solid state lasers have remained a vibrant area of research because several major innovations expanded their capability. Major innovations are presented with emphasis focused on the laser efficiency. A product of efficiencies approach is developed and applied to describe laser performance. Efficiency factors are presented in closed form where practical and energy transfer effects are included where needed. In turn, efficiency factors are used to estimate threshold and slope efficiency, allowing a facile estimate of performance. Spectroscopic, thermal, and mechanical data are provided for common solid state laser materials.

System and method for controlling an engine based on ammonia storage in multiple selective catalytic reduction catalysts

DOEpatents

Sun, MIn; Perry, Kevin L.

2015-11-20

A system according to the principles of the present disclosure includes a storage estimation module and an air/fuel ratio control module. The storage estimation module estimates a first amount of ammonia stored in a first selective catalytic reduction (SCR) catalyst and estimates a second amount of ammonia stored in a second SCR catalyst. The air/fuel ratio control module controls an air/fuel ratio of an engine based on the first amount, the second amount, and a temperature of a substrate disposed in the second SCR catalyst.

Evaluation of Piloted Inputs for Onboard Frequency Response Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grauer, Jared A.; Martos, Borja

2013-01-01

Frequency response estimation results are presented using piloted inputs and a real-time estimation method recently developed for multisine inputs. A nonlinear simulation of the F-16 and a Piper Saratoga research aircraft were subjected to different piloted test inputs while the short period stabilator/elevator to pitch rate frequency response was estimated. Results show that the method can produce accurate results using wide-band piloted inputs instead of multisines. A new metric is introduced for evaluating which data points to include in the analysis and recommendations are provided for applying this method with piloted inputs.

Computer simulation results of attitude estimation of earth orbiting satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kou, S. R.

1976-01-01

Computer simulation results of attitude estimation of Earth-orbiting satellites (including Space Telescope) subjected to environmental disturbances and noises are presented. Decomposed linear recursive filter and Kalman filter were used as estimation tools. Six programs were developed for this simulation, and all were written in the basic language and were run on HP 9830A and HP 9866A computers. Simulation results show that a decomposed linear recursive filter is accurate in estimation and fast in response time. Furthermore, for higher order systems, this filter has computational advantages (i.e., less integration errors and roundoff errors) over a Kalman filter.

Optimal Doppler centroid estimation for SAR data from a quasi-homogeneous source

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jin, M. Y.

1986-01-01

This correspondence briefly describes two Doppler centroid estimation (DCE) algorithms, provides a performance summary for these algorithms, and presents the experimental results. These algorithms include that of Li et al. (1985) and a newly developed one that is optimized for quasi-homogeneous sources. The performance enhancement achieved by the optimal DCE algorithm is clearly demonstrated by the experimental results.

Highlights of Trends in Pregnancies and Pregnancy Rates by Outcome: Estimates for the United States, 1976-96.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ventura, Stephanie J.; Mosher, William D.; Curtin, Sally C.; Abma, Joyce C.; Henshaw, Stanley

1999-01-01

This report presents key findings from a comprehensive report on pregnancies and pregnancy rates for U.S. women. The study incorporates birth, abortion, and fetal loss data to compile national estimates of pregnancy rates according to a variety of characteristics, including age, race, Hispanic origin, and marital status. Data from the National…

Estimating force and power requirements for crosscut shearing of roundwood.

Treesearch

Rodger A. Arola

1972-01-01

Presents a procedure which, through the use of nomographs, permits rapid estimation of the force required to crosscut shear logs of various species and diameters with shear blades ranging in thickness from 1/4 to 7/8 inch. In addition, nomographs are included to evaluate hydraulic cylinder sizes, pump capacities, and motor horsepower requirements to effect the cut....

A New Lifetime Distribution with Bathtube and Unimodal Hazard Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barriga, Gladys D. C.; Louzada-Neto, Francisco; Cancho, Vicente G.

2008-11-01

In this paper we propose a new lifetime distribution which accommodate bathtub-shaped, unimodal, increasing and decreasing hazard function. Some special particular cases are derived, including the standard Weibull distribution. Maximum likelihood estimation is considered for estimate the tree parameters present in the model. The methodology is illustrated in a real data set on industrial devices on a lite test.

Comparison and testing of extended Kalman filters for attitude estimation of the Earth radiation budget satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deutschmann, Julie; Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack Y.; Rokni, Mohammad

1990-01-01

The testing and comparison of two Extended Kalman Filters (EKFs) developed for the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) is described. One EKF updates the attitude quaternion using a four component additive error quaternion. This technique is compared to that of a second EKF, which uses a multiplicative error quaternion. A brief development of the multiplicative algorithm is included. The mathematical development of the additive EKF was presented in the 1989 Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium along with some preliminary testing results using real spacecraft data. A summary of the additive EKF algorithm is included. The convergence properties, singularity problems, and normalization techniques of the two filters are addressed. Both filters are also compared to those from the ERBS operational ground support software, which uses a batch differential correction algorithm to estimate attitude and gyro biases. Sensitivity studies are performed on the estimation of sensor calibration states. The potential application of the EKF for real time and non-real time ground attitude determination and sensor calibration for future missions such as the Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) and the Small Explorer Mission (SMEX) is also presented.

An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology.

PubMed

Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly M; Clifton, James P; van de Schoot, Rens; Tiemensma, Jitske

2017-09-01

The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of health psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation models, latent growth curve (and mixture) models, and hierarchical linear models. Likewise, Bayesian methods can be used with small sample sizes since they do not rely on large sample theory. In this article, we discuss several important components of Bayesian statistics as they relate to health-based inquiries. We discuss the incorporation and impact of prior knowledge into the estimation process and the different components of the analysis that should be reported in an article. We present an example implementing Bayesian estimation in the context of blood pressure changes after participants experienced an acute stressor. We conclude with final thoughts on the implementation of Bayesian statistics in health psychology, including suggestions for reviewing Bayesian manuscripts and grant proposals. We have also included an extensive amount of online supplementary material to complement the content presented here, including Bayesian examples using many different software programmes and an extensive sensitivity analysis examining the impact of priors.

Conditions under which Arousal Does and Does Not Elevate Height Estimates

PubMed Central

Storbeck, Justin; Stefanucci, Jeanine K.

2014-01-01

We present a series of experiments that explore the boundary conditions for how emotional arousal influences height estimates. Four experiments are presented, which investigated the influence of context, situation-relevance, intensity, and attribution of arousal on height estimates. In Experiment 1, we manipulated the environmental context to signal either danger (viewing a height from above) or safety (viewing a height from below). High arousal only increased height estimates made from above. In Experiment 2, two arousal inductions were used that contained either 1) height-relevant arousing images or 2) height-irrelevant arousing images. Regardless of theme, arousal increased height estimates compared to a neutral group. In Experiment 3, arousal intensity was manipulated by inserting an intermediate or long delay between the induction and height estimates. A brief, but not a long, delay from the arousal induction served to increase height estimates. In Experiment 4, an attribution manipulation was included, and those participants who were made aware of the source of their arousal reduced their height estimates compared to participants who received no attribution instructions. Thus, arousal that is attributed to its true source is discounted from feelings elicited by the height, thereby reducing height estimates. Overall, we suggest that misattributed, embodied arousal is used as a cue when estimating heights from above that can lead to overestimation. PMID:24699393

Bayesian Mass Estimates of the Milky Way: Including Measurement Uncertainties with Hierarchical Bayes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eadie, Gwendolyn M.; Springford, Aaron; Harris, William E.

2017-02-01

We present a hierarchical Bayesian method for estimating the total mass and mass profile of the Milky Way Galaxy. The new hierarchical Bayesian approach further improves the framework presented by Eadie et al. and Eadie and Harris and builds upon the preliminary reports by Eadie et al. The method uses a distribution function f({ E },L) to model the Galaxy and kinematic data from satellite objects, such as globular clusters (GCs), to trace the Galaxy’s gravitational potential. A major advantage of the method is that it not only includes complete and incomplete data simultaneously in the analysis, but also incorporates measurement uncertainties in a coherent and meaningful way. We first test the hierarchical Bayesian framework, which includes measurement uncertainties, using the same data and power-law model assumed in Eadie and Harris and find the results are similar but more strongly constrained. Next, we take advantage of the new statistical framework and incorporate all possible GC data, finding a cumulative mass profile with Bayesian credible regions. This profile implies a mass within 125 kpc of 4.8× {10}11{M}⊙ with a 95% Bayesian credible region of (4.0{--}5.8)× {10}11{M}⊙ . Our results also provide estimates of the true specific energies of all the GCs. By comparing these estimated energies to the measured energies of GCs with complete velocity measurements, we observe that (the few) remote tracers with complete measurements may play a large role in determining a total mass estimate of the Galaxy. Thus, our study stresses the need for more remote tracers with complete velocity measurements.

Reference-material system for estimating health and environmental risks of selected material cycles and energy systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crowther, M.A.; Moskowitz, P.D.

1981-07-01

Sample analyses and detailed documentation are presented for a Reference Material System (RMS) to estimate health and environmental risks of different material cycles and energy systems. Data inputs described include: end-use material demands, efficiency coefficients, environmental emission coefficients, fuel demand coefficients, labor productivity estimates, and occupational health and safety coefficients. Application of this model permits analysts to estimate fuel use (e.g., Btu), occupational risk (e.g., fatalities), and environmental emissions (e.g., sulfur oxide) for specific material trajectories or complete energy systems. Model uncertainty is quantitatively defined by presenting a range of estimates for each data input. Systematic uncertainty not quantified relatesmore » to the boundaries chosen for analysis and reference system specification. Although the RMS can be used to analyze material system impacts for many different energy technologies, it was specifically used to examine the health and environmental risks of producing the following four types of photovoltaic devices: silicon n/p single-crystal cells produced by a Czochralski process; silicon metal/insulator/semiconductor (MIS) cells produced by a ribbon-growing process; cadmium sulfide/copper sulfide backwall cells produced by a spray deposition process; and gallium arsenide cells with 500X concentrator produced by a modified Czochralski process. Emission coefficients for particulates, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide; solid waste; total suspended solids in water; and, where applicable, air and solid waste residuals for arsenic, cadmium, gallium, and silicon are examined and presented. Where data are available the coefficients for particulates, sulfur oxides, and nitrogen oxides include both process and on-site fuel-burning emissions.« less

Studies of the net surface radiative flux from satellite radiances during FIFE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frouin, Robert

1993-01-01

Studies of the net surface radiative flux from satellite radiances during First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) are presented. Topics covered include: radiative transfer model validation; calibration of VISSR and AVHRR solar channels; development and refinement of algorithms to estimate downward solar and terrestrial irradiances at the surface, including photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) and surface albedo; verification of these algorithms using in situ measurements; production of maps of shortwave irradiance, surface albedo, and related products; analysis of the temporal variability of shortwave irradiance over the FIFE site; development of a spectroscopy technique to estimate atmospheric total water vapor amount; and study of optimum linear combinations of visible and near-infrared reflectances for estimating the fraction of PAR absorbed by plants.

METAPHOR: Probability density estimation for machine learning based photometric redshifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaro, V.; Cavuoti, S.; Brescia, M.; Vellucci, C.; Tortora, C.; Longo, G.

2017-06-01

We present METAPHOR (Machine-learning Estimation Tool for Accurate PHOtometric Redshifts), a method able to provide a reliable PDF for photometric galaxy redshifts estimated through empirical techniques. METAPHOR is a modular workflow, mainly based on the MLPQNA neural network as internal engine to derive photometric galaxy redshifts, but giving the possibility to easily replace MLPQNA with any other method to predict photo-z's and their PDF. We present here the results about a validation test of the workflow on the galaxies from SDSS-DR9, showing also the universality of the method by replacing MLPQNA with KNN and Random Forest models. The validation test include also a comparison with the PDF's derived from a traditional SED template fitting method (Le Phare).

Born iterative reconstruction using perturbed-phase field estimates.

PubMed

Astheimer, Jeffrey P; Waag, Robert C

2008-10-01

A method of image reconstruction from scattering measurements for use in ultrasonic imaging is presented. The method employs distorted-wave Born iteration but does not require using a forward-problem solver or solving large systems of equations. These calculations are avoided by limiting intermediate estimates of medium variations to smooth functions in which the propagated fields can be approximated by phase perturbations derived from variations in a geometric path along rays. The reconstruction itself is formed by a modification of the filtered-backpropagation formula that includes correction terms to account for propagation through an estimated background. Numerical studies that validate the method for parameter ranges of interest in medical applications are presented. The efficiency of this method offers the possibility of real-time imaging from scattering measurements.

National Hospital Discharge Survey: 2001 annual summary with detailed diagnosis and procedure data.

PubMed

Kozak, Lola Jean; Owings, Maria F; Hall, Margaret J

2004-06-01

This report presents 2001 national estimates and selected trend data on the use of non-Federal short-stay hospitals in the United States. Estimates are provided by selected patient and hospital characteristics, diagnoses, and surgical and nonsurgical procedures performed. Admission source and type, collected for the first time in the 2001 National Hospital Discharge Survey, are shown. The estimates are based on data collected through the National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS). The survey has been conducted annually since 1965. In 2001, data were collected for approximately 330,000 discharges. Of the 477 eligible non-Federal short-stay hospitals in the sample, 448 (94 percent) responded to the survey. Estimates of diagnoses and procedures are presented according to International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) code numbers. Rates are computed with 2001 population estimates based on the 2000 census. The appendix includes a comparison of rates computed with 1990 and 2000 census-based population estimates. An estimated 32.7 million inpatients were discharged from non-Federal short-stay hospitals in 2001. They used 159.4 million days of care and had an average length of stay of 4.9 days. Common first-listed discharge diagnoses included delivery, psychoses, pneumonia, malignant neoplasm, and coronary atherosclerosis. Males had higher rates for procedures such as cardiac catheterization and coronary artery bypass graft, and females had higher rates for procedures such as cholecystectomy and total knee replacement. The rates of all cesarean deliveries, primary and repeat, rose from 1995 to 2001; the rate of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery dropped 37 percent during this period.

Worldwide estimation of river concentrations of any chemical originating from sewage-treatment plants using dilution factors.

PubMed

Keller, Virginie D J; Williams, Richard J; Lofthouse, Caryn; Johnson, Andrew C

2014-02-01

Dilution factors are a critical component in estimating concentrations of so-called "down-the-drain" chemicals (e.g., pharmaceuticals) in rivers. The present study estimated the temporal and spatial variability of dilution factors around the world using geographically referenced data sets at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution. Domestic wastewater effluents were derived from national per capita domestic water use estimates and gridded population. Monthly and annual river flows were estimated by accumulating runoff estimates using topographically derived flow directions. National statistics, including the median and interquartile range, were generated to quantify dilution factors. Spatial variability of the dilution factor was found to be considerable; for example, there are 4 orders of magnitude in annual median dilution factor between Canada and Morocco. Temporal variability within a country can also be substantial; in India, there are up to 9 orders of magnitude between median monthly dilution factors. These national statistics provide a global picture of the temporal and spatial variability of dilution factors and, hence, of the potential exposure to down-the-drain chemicals. The present methodology has potential for a wide international community (including decision makers and pharmaceutical companies) to assess relative exposure to down-the-drain chemicals released by human pollution in rivers and, thus, target areas of potentially high risk. © 2013 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

Probablilistic evaluation of earthquake detection and location capability for Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, and West Virginia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mauk, F.J.; Christensen, D.H.

1980-09-01

Probabilistic estimations of earthquake detection and location capabilities for the states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and West Virginia are presented in this document. The algorithm used in these epicentrality and minimum-magnitude estimations is a version of the program NETWORTH by Wirth, Blandford, and Husted (DARPA Order No. 2551, 1978) which was modified for local array evaluation at the University of Michigan Seismological Observatory. Estimations of earthquake detection capability for the years 1970 and 1980 are presented in four regional minimum m/sub b/ magnitude contour maps. Regional 90% confidence error ellipsoids are included for m/sub b/ magnitude events from 2.0more » through 5.0 at 0.5 m/sub b/ unit increments. The close agreement between these predicted epicentral 90% confidence estimates and the calculated error ellipses associated with actual earthquakes within the studied region suggest that these error determinations can be used to estimate the reliability of epicenter location. 8 refs., 14 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Identification of modal parameters including unmeasured forces and transient effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cauberghe, B.; Guillaume, P.; Verboven, P.; Parloo, E.

2003-08-01

In this paper, a frequency-domain method to estimate modal parameters from short data records with known input (measured) forces and unknown input forces is presented. The method can be used for an experimental modal analysis, an operational modal analysis (output-only data) and the combination of both. A traditional experimental and operational modal analysis in the frequency domain starts respectively, from frequency response functions and spectral density functions. To estimate these functions accurately sufficient data have to be available. The technique developed in this paper estimates the modal parameters directly from the Fourier spectra of the outputs and the known input. Instead of using Hanning windows on these short data records the transient effects are estimated simultaneously with the modal parameters. The method is illustrated, tested and validated by Monte Carlo simulations and experiments. The presented method to process short data sequences leads to unbiased estimates with a small variance in comparison to the more traditional approaches.

Shopping on the Public and Private Health Insurance Marketplaces: Consumer Decision Aids and Plan Presentation.

PubMed

Wong, Charlene A; Kulhari, Sajal; McGeoch, Ellen J; Jones, Arthur T; Weiner, Janet; Polsky, Daniel; Baker, Tom

2018-05-29

The design of the Affordable Care Act's (ACA) health insurance marketplaces influences complex health plan choices. To compare the choice environments of the public health insurance exchanges in the fourth (OEP4) versus third (OEP3) open enrollment period and to examine online marketplace run by private companies, including a total cost estimate comparison. In November-December 2016, we examined the public and private online health insurance exchanges. We navigated each site for "real-shopping" (personal information required) and "window-shopping" (no required personal information). Public (n = 13; 12 state-based marketplaces and HealthCare.gov ) and private (n = 23) online health insurance exchanges. Features included consumer decision aids (e.g., total cost estimators, provider lookups) and plan display (e.g., order of plans). We examined private health insurance exchanges for notable features (i.e., those not found on public exchanges) and compared the total cost estimates on public versus private exchanges for a standardized consumer. Nearly all studied consumer decision aids saw increased deployment in the public marketplaces in OEP4 compared to OEP3. Over half of the public exchanges (n = 7 of 13) had total cost estimators (versus 5 of 14 in OEP3) in window-shopping and integrated provider lookups (window-shopping: 7; real-shopping: 8). The most common default plan orders were by premium or total cost estimate. Notable features on private health insurance exchanges were unique data presentation (e.g., infographics) and further personalized shopping (e.g., recommended plan flags). Health plan total cost estimates varied substantially between the public and private exchanges (average difference $1526). The ACA's public health insurance exchanges offered more tools in OEP4 to help consumers select a plan. While private health insurance exchanges presented notable features, the total cost estimates for a standardized consumer varied widely on public versus private exchanges.

Gravitational waves: search results, data analysis and parameter estimation: Amaldi 10 Parallel session C2.

PubMed

Astone, Pia; Weinstein, Alan; Agathos, Michalis; Bejger, Michał; Christensen, Nelson; Dent, Thomas; Graff, Philip; Klimenko, Sergey; Mazzolo, Giulio; Nishizawa, Atsushi; Robinet, Florent; Schmidt, Patricia; Smith, Rory; Veitch, John; Wade, Madeline; Aoudia, Sofiane; Bose, Sukanta; Calderon Bustillo, Juan; Canizares, Priscilla; Capano, Colin; Clark, James; Colla, Alberto; Cuoco, Elena; Da Silva Costa, Carlos; Dal Canton, Tito; Evangelista, Edgar; Goetz, Evan; Gupta, Anuradha; Hannam, Mark; Keitel, David; Lackey, Benjamin; Logue, Joshua; Mohapatra, Satyanarayan; Piergiovanni, Francesco; Privitera, Stephen; Prix, Reinhard; Pürrer, Michael; Re, Virginia; Serafinelli, Roberto; Wade, Leslie; Wen, Linqing; Wette, Karl; Whelan, John; Palomba, C; Prodi, G

The Amaldi 10 Parallel Session C2 on gravitational wave (GW) search results, data analysis and parameter estimation included three lively sessions of lectures by 13 presenters, and 34 posters. The talks and posters covered a huge range of material, including results and analysis techniques for ground-based GW detectors, targeting anticipated signals from different astrophysical sources: compact binary inspiral, merger and ringdown; GW bursts from intermediate mass binary black hole mergers, cosmic string cusps, core-collapse supernovae, and other unmodeled sources; continuous waves from spinning neutron stars; and a stochastic GW background. There was considerable emphasis on Bayesian techniques for estimating the parameters of coalescing compact binary systems from the gravitational waveforms extracted from the data from the advanced detector network. This included methods to distinguish deviations of the signals from what is expected in the context of General Relativity.

Gravitational Waves: Search Results, Data Analysis and Parameter Estimation. Amaldi 10 Parallel Session C2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Astone, Pia; Weinstein, Alan; Agathos, Michalis; Bejger, Michal; Christensen, Nelson; Dent, Thomas; Graff, Philip; Klimenko, Sergey; Mazzolo, Giulio; Nishizawa, Atsushi

2015-01-01

The Amaldi 10 Parallel Session C2 on gravitational wave(GW) search results, data analysis and parameter estimation included three lively sessions of lectures by 13 presenters, and 34 posters. The talks and posters covered a huge range of material, including results and analysis techniques for ground-based GW detectors, targeting anticipated signals from different astrophysical sources: compact binary inspiral, merger and ringdown; GW bursts from intermediate mass binary black hole mergers, cosmic string cusps, core-collapse supernovae, and other unmodeled sources; continuous waves from spinning neutron stars; and a stochastic GW background. There was considerable emphasis on Bayesian techniques for estimating the parameters of coalescing compact binary systems from the gravitational waveforms extracted from the data from the advanced detector network. This included methods to distinguish deviations of the signals from what is expected in the context of General Relativity.

User's guide to program FLEXSTAB. [aerodynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cavin, R. K., III; Colunga, D.

1975-01-01

A manual is presented for correctly submitting program runs in aerodynamics on the UNIVAC 1108 computer system. All major program modules are included. Control cards are documented for the user's convenience, and card parameters are included in order to provide some idea as to reasonable time estimates for the program modules.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kurtz, S.

This report summarizes the current status of the CPV industry and is updated from previous versions to include information from the last year. New information presented at the CPV-8 conference is included along with the addition of new companies that have announced their interest in CPV, and estimates of production volumes for 2011 and 2012.

A General Simulator Using State Estimation for a Space Tug Navigation System. [computerized simulation, orbital position estimation and flight mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boland, J. S., III

1975-01-01

A general simulation program is presented (GSP) involving nonlinear state estimation for space vehicle flight navigation systems. A complete explanation of the iterative guidance mode guidance law, derivation of the dynamics, coordinate frames, and state estimation routines are given so as to fully clarify the assumptions and approximations involved so that simulation results can be placed in their proper perspective. A complete set of computer acronyms and their definitions as well as explanations of the subroutines used in the GSP simulator are included. To facilitate input/output, a complete set of compatable numbers, with units, are included to aid in data development. Format specifications, output data phrase meanings and purposes, and computer card data input are clearly spelled out. A large number of simulation and analytical studies were used to determine the validity of the simulator itself as well as various data runs.

System for estimating fatigue damage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

LeMonds, Jeffrey; Guzzo, Judith Ann; Liu, Shaopeng

In one aspect, a system for estimating fatigue damage in a riser string is provided. The system includes a plurality of accelerometers which can be deployed along a riser string and a communications link to transmit accelerometer data from the plurality of accelerometers to one or more data processors in real time. With data from a limited number of accelerometers located at sensor locations, the system estimates an optimized current profile along the entire length of the riser including riser locations where no accelerometer is present. The optimized current profile is then used to estimate damage rates to individual risermore » components and to update a total accumulated damage to individual riser components. The number of sensor locations is small relative to the length of a deepwater riser string, and a riser string several miles long can be reliably monitored along its entire length by fewer than twenty sensor locations.« less

Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium, 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stengle, Thomas (Editor)

1991-01-01

Twenty-six papers and abstracts are presented. A wide range of issues related to orbit attitude prediction, orbit determination, and orbit control are examined including attitude sensor calibration, attitude dynamics, and orbit decay and maneuver strategy. Government, industry, and the academic community participated in the preparation and presentation of these papers.

Unbiased estimation of oceanic mean rainfall from satellite borne radiometer measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mittal, M. C.

1981-01-01

The statistical properties of the radar derived rainfall obtained during the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) are used to derive quantitative estimates of the spatial and temporal sampling errors associated with estimating rainfall from brightness temperature measurements such as would be obtained from a satelliteborne microwave radiometer employing a practical size antenna aperture. A basis for a method of correcting the so called beam filling problem, i.e., for the effect of nonuniformity of rainfall over the radiometer beamwidth is provided. The method presented employs the statistical properties of the observations themselves without need for physical assumptions beyond those associated with the radiative transfer model. The simulation results presented offer a validation of the estimated accuracy that can be achieved and the graphs included permit evaluation of the effect of the antenna resolution on both the temporal and spatial sampling errors.

The Cost of Crime to Society: New Crime-Specific Estimates for Policy and Program Evaluation

PubMed Central

French, Michael T.; Fang, Hai

2010-01-01

Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than ten years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost of society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields cost estimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime cost estimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime. PMID:20071107

The cost of crime to society: new crime-specific estimates for policy and program evaluation.

PubMed

McCollister, Kathryn E; French, Michael T; Fang, Hai

2010-04-01

Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than 10 years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost to society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields cost estimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime cost estimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lunar gravitational field estimation and the effects of mismodeling upon lunar satellite orbit prediction. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, John H.

1993-01-01

Lunar spherical harmonic gravity coefficients are estimated from simulated observations of a near-circular low altitude polar orbiter disturbed by lunar mascons. Lunar gravity sensing missions using earth-based nearside observations with and without satellite-based far-side observations are simulated and least squares maximum likelihood estimates are developed for spherical harmonic expansion fit models. Simulations and parameter estimations are performed by a modified version of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory's Planetary Ephemeris Program. Two different lunar spacecraft mission phases are simulated to evaluate the estimated fit models. Results for predicting state covariances one orbit ahead are presented along with the state errors resulting from the mismodeled gravity field. The position errors from planning a lunar landing maneuver with a mismodeled gravity field are also presented. These simulations clearly demonstrate the need to include observations of satellite motion over the far side in estimating the lunar gravity field. The simulations also illustrate that the eighth degree and order expansions used in the simulated fits were unable to adequately model lunar mascons.

Nonparametric EROC analysis for observer performance evaluation on joint detection and estimation tasks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wunderlich, Adam; Goossens, Bart

2014-03-01

The majority of the literature on task-based image quality assessment has focused on lesion detection tasks, using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, or related variants, to measure performance. However, since many clinical image evaluation tasks involve both detection and estimation (e.g., estimation of kidney stone composition, estimation of tumor size), there is a growing interest in performance evaluation for joint detection and estimation tasks. To evaluate observer performance on such tasks, Clarkson introduced the estimation ROC (EROC) curve, and the area under the EROC curve as a summary figure of merit. In the present work, we propose nonparametric estimators for practical EROC analysis from experimental data, including estimators for the area under the EROC curve and its variance. The estimators are illustrated with a practical example comparing MRI images reconstructed from different k-space sampling trajectories.

On-line implementation of nonlinear parameter estimation for the Space Shuttle main engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buckland, Julia H.; Musgrave, Jeffrey L.; Walker, Bruce K.

1992-01-01

We investigate the performance of a nonlinear estimation scheme applied to the estimation of several parameters in a performance model of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. The nonlinear estimator is based upon the extended Kalman filter which has been augmented to provide estimates of several key performance variables. The estimated parameters are directly related to the efficiency of both the low pressure and high pressure fuel turbopumps. Decreases in the parameter estimates may be interpreted as degradations in turbine and/or pump efficiencies which can be useful measures for an online health monitoring algorithm. This paper extends previous work which has focused on off-line parameter estimation by investigating the filter's on-line potential from a computational standpoint. ln addition, we examine the robustness of the algorithm to unmodeled dynamics. The filter uses a reduced-order model of the engine that includes only fuel-side dynamics. The on-line results produced during this study are comparable to off-line results generated previously. The results show that the parameter estimates are sensitive to dynamics not included in the filter model. Off-line results using an extended Kalman filter with a full order engine model to address the robustness problems of the reduced-order model are also presented.

Population estimates of Nearctic shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2000-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fell in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500,000. Population size was inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log (population size) and log (mass). Two outlying groups were evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, included species considered either to be "at risk" or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, included two species that are hunted. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada, and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Estimates of shorebird populations in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2001-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fall in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500 000. Population size is inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log(population size) and log(mass). Two outlying groups are evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, includes species considered to be either “at risk” or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, includes two species that are hunted. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration, and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Childress, Evan; Letcher, Benjamin H.

2017-01-01

Estimating thermal performance of organisms is critical for understanding population distributions and dynamics and predicting responses to climate change. Typically, performance curves are estimated using laboratory studies to isolate temperature effects, but other abiotic and biotic factors influence temperature-performance relationships in nature reducing these models' predictive ability. We present a model for estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations that includes environmental and individual variation. We fit the model in a Bayesian framework using MCMC sampling, which allowed for estimation of unobserved latent growth while propagating uncertainty. Fitting the model to simulated data varying in sampling design and parameter values demonstrated that the parameter estimates were accurate, precise, and unbiased. Fitting the model to individual growth data from wild trout revealed high out-of-sample predictive ability relative to laboratory-derived models, which produced more biased predictions for field performance. The field-based estimates of thermal maxima were lower than those based on laboratory studies. Under warming temperature scenarios, field-derived performance models predicted stronger declines in body size than laboratory-derived models, suggesting that laboratory-based models may underestimate climate change effects. The presented model estimates true, realized field performance, avoiding assumptions required for applying laboratory-based models to field performance, which should improve estimates of performance under climate change and advance thermal ecology.

Perceived risk of tamoxifen side effects: a study of the use of absolute frequencies or frequency bands, with or without verbal descriptors.

PubMed

Knapp, Peter; Gardner, Peter H; Raynor, David K; Woolf, Elizabeth; McMillan, Brian

2010-05-01

To investigate the effectiveness of presenting medicine side effect risk information in different forms, including that proposed by UK guidelines [[1] Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. Always read the leaflet-Getting the best information with every medicine. (Report of the Committee on Safety of Medicines Working Group on Patient Information). London: The Stationery Office, 2005.]. 134 Cancer Research UK (CRUK) website users were recruited via a 'pop-up'. Using a 2x2 factorial design, participants were randomly allocated to one of four conditions and asked to: imagine they had to take tamoxifen, estimate the risks of 4 side effects, and indicate a presentation mode preference. Those presented with absolute frequencies demonstrated greater accuracy in estimating 2 of 4 side effects, and of any side effect occurring, than those presented with frequency bands. Those presented with combined descriptors were more accurate at estimating the risk of pulmonary embolism than those presented with numeric descriptors only. Absolute frequencies outperform frequency bands when presenting side effect risk information. However, presenting such exact frequencies for every side effect may be much less digestible than all side effects listed under 5 frequency bands. Combined numerical and verbal descriptors may be better than numeric only descriptors when describing infrequent side effects. Information about side effects should be presented in ways that patients prefer, and which result in most accurate risk estimates. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methodology for National Water Savings Model and Spreadsheet Tool—Outdoor Water Use

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Alison, A; Chen, Yuting; Dunham, Camilla

This report describes the method Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) developed to estimate national impacts of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) WaterSense labeling program for weather-based irrigation controllers (WBIC). Estimated impacts include the national water savings attributable to the program and the net present value of the lifetime water savings for consumers of irrigation controllers.

Fractal-Based Lightning Channel Length Estimation from Convex-Hull Flash Areas for DC3 Lightning Mapping Array Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bruning, Eric C.; Thomas, Ronald J.; Krehbiel, Paul R.; Rison, William; Carey, Larry D.; Koshak, William; Peterson, Harold; MacGorman, Donald R.

2013-01-01

We will use VHF Lightning Mapping Array data to estimate NOx per flash and per unit channel length, including the vertical distribution of channel length. What s the best way to find channel length from VHF sources? This paper presents the rationale for the fractal method, which is closely related to the box-covering method.

Arkansas, 2009 forest inventory and analysis factsheet

Treesearch

James F. Rosson

2011-01-01

The summary includes estimates of forest land area (table 1), ownership (table 2), forest-type groups (table 3), volume (tables 4 and 5), biomass (tables 6 and 7), and pine plantation area (table 8) along with maps of Arkansas’ survey units (fig. 1), percent forest by county (fig. 2), and distribution of pine plantations (fig. 3). The estimates are presented by survey...

Pathfinder. Volume 9, Number 2, March/April 2011

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

vides audio, video, desktop sharing and chat.” The platform offers a real-time, Web- based presentation tool to create information and general...collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources...gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information . Send comments regarding this burden estimate or

The October 1973 space shuttle traffic model, revision 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

Traffic model data for the space shuttle for calendar years 1980 through 1991 are presented along with some supporting and summary data. This model was developed from the 1973 NASA Payload Model, dated October 1973, and the NASA estimate of the 1973 Non-NASA/Non-DoD Payload Model. The estimates for the DoD flights included are based on the 1971 DoD Mission Model.

On the estimation of jet-induced fountain lift and additional suckdown in hover for two-jet configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuhn, Richard E.; Bellavia, David C.; Corsiglia, Victor R.; Wardwell, Douglas A.

1991-01-01

Currently available methods for estimating the net suckdown induced on jet V/STOL aircraft hovering in ground effect are based on a correlation of available force data and are, therefore, limited to configurations similar to those in the data base. Experience with some of these configurations has shown that both the fountain lift and additional suckdown are overestimated but these effects cancel each other for configurations within the data base. For other configurations, these effects may not cancel and the net suckdown could be grossly overestimated or underestimated. Also, present methods do not include the prediction of the pitching moments associated with the suckdown induced in ground effect. An attempt to develop a more logically based method for estimating the fountain lift and suckdown based on the jet-induced pressures is initiated. The analysis is based primarily on the data from a related family of three two-jet configurations (all using the same jet spacing) and limited data from two other two-jet configurations. The current status of the method, which includes expressions for estimating the maximum pressure induced in the fountain regions, and the sizes of the fountain and suckdown regions is presented. Correlating factors are developed to be used with these areas and pressures to estimate the fountain lift, the suckdown, and the related pitching moment increments.

Precipitation estimates and comparison of satellite rainfall data to in situ rain gauge observations to further develop the watershed-modeling capabilities for the Lower Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dandridge, C.; Lakshmi, V.; Sutton, J. R. P.; Bolten, J. D.

2017-12-01

This study focuses on the lower region of the Mekong River Basin (MRB), an area including Burma, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand. This region is home to expansive agriculture that relies heavily on annual precipitation over the basin for its prosperity. Annual precipitation amounts are regulated by the global monsoon system and therefore vary throughout the year. This research will lead to improved prediction of floods and management of floodwaters for the MRB. We compare different satellite estimates of precipitation to each other and to in-situ precipitation estimates for the Mekong River Basin. These comparisons will help us determine which satellite precipitation estimates are better at predicting precipitation in the MRB and will help further our understanding of watershed-modeling capabilities for the basin. In this study we use: 1) NOAA's PERSIANN daily 0.25° precipitation estimate Climate Data Record (CDR), 2) NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) daily 0.25° estimate, and 3) NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) daily 0.1 estimate and 4) 488 in-situ stations located in the lower MRB provide daily precipitation estimates. The PERSIANN CDR precipitation estimate was able to provide the longest data record because it is available from 1983 to present. The TRMM precipitation estimate is available from 2000 to present and the GPM precipitation estimates are available from 2015 to present. It is for this reason that we provide several comparisons between our precipitation estimates. Comparisons were done between each satellite product and the in-situ precipitation estimates based on geographical location and date using the entire available data record for each satellite product for daily, monthly, and yearly precipitation estimates. We found that monthly PERSIANN precipitation estimates were able to explain up to 90% of the variability in station precipitation depending on station location.

Parameter Estimation and Model Selection for Indoor Environments Based on Sparse Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dehbi, Y.; Loch-Dehbi, S.; Plümer, L.

2017-09-01

This paper presents a novel method for the parameter estimation and model selection for the reconstruction of indoor environments based on sparse observations. While most approaches for the reconstruction of indoor models rely on dense observations, we predict scenes of the interior with high accuracy in the absence of indoor measurements. We use a model-based top-down approach and incorporate strong but profound prior knowledge. The latter includes probability density functions for model parameters and sparse observations such as room areas and the building footprint. The floorplan model is characterized by linear and bi-linear relations with discrete and continuous parameters. We focus on the stochastic estimation of model parameters based on a topological model derived by combinatorial reasoning in a first step. A Gauss-Markov model is applied for estimation and simulation of the model parameters. Symmetries are represented and exploited during the estimation process. Background knowledge as well as observations are incorporated in a maximum likelihood estimation and model selection is performed with AIC/BIC. The likelihood is also used for the detection and correction of potential errors in the topological model. Estimation results are presented and discussed.

Estimation of Fat-free Mass at Discharge in Preterm Infants Fed With Optimized Feeding Regimen.

PubMed

Larcade, Julie; Pradat, Pierre; Buffin, Rachel; Leick-Courtois, Charline; Jourdes, Emilie; Picaud, Jean-Charles

2017-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to validate a previously calculated equation (E1) that estimates infant fat-free mass (FFM) at discharge using data from a population of preterm infants receiving an optimized feeding regimen. Preterm infants born before 33 weeks of gestation between April 2014 and November 2015 in the tertiary care unit of Croix-Rousse Hospital in Lyon, France, were included in the study. At discharge, FFM was assessed by air displacement plethysmography (PEA POD) and was compared with FFM estimated by E1. FFM was estimated using a multiple linear regression model. Data on 155 preterm infants were collected. There was a strong correlation between the FFM estimated by E1 and FFM assessed by the PEA POD (r = 0.939). E1, however, underestimated the FFM (average difference: -197 g), and this underestimation increased as FFM increased. A new, more predictive equation is proposed (r = 0.950, average difference: -12 g). Although previous estimation methods were useful for estimating FFM at discharge, an equation adapted to present populations of preterm infants with "modern" neonatal care and nutritional practices is required for accuracy.

Improved Analysis of GW150914 Using a Fully Spin-Precessing Waveform Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Camp, J. B.;

Incorporating structure from motion uncertainty into image-based pose estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludington, Ben T.; Brown, Andrew P.; Sheffler, Michael J.; Taylor, Clark N.; Berardi, Stephen

2015-05-01

A method for generating and utilizing structure from motion (SfM) uncertainty estimates within image-based pose estimation is presented. The method is applied to a class of problems in which SfM algorithms are utilized to form a geo-registered reference model of a particular ground area using imagery gathered during flight by a small unmanned aircraft. The model is then used to form camera pose estimates in near real-time from imagery gathered later. The resulting pose estimates can be utilized by any of the other onboard systems (e.g. as a replacement for GPS data) or downstream exploitation systems, e.g., image-based object trackers. However, many of the consumers of pose estimates require an assessment of the pose accuracy. The method for generating the accuracy assessment is presented. First, the uncertainty in the reference model is estimated. Bundle Adjustment (BA) is utilized for model generation. While the high-level approach for generating a covariance matrix of the BA parameters is straightforward, typical computing hardware is not able to support the required operations due to the scale of the optimization problem within BA. Therefore, a series of sparse matrix operations is utilized to form an exact covariance matrix for only the parameters that are needed at a particular moment. Once the uncertainty in the model has been determined, it is used to augment Perspective-n-Point pose estimation algorithms to improve the pose accuracy and to estimate the resulting pose uncertainty. The implementation of the described method is presented along with results including results gathered from flight test data.

Addendum to the article: Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: Would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

PubMed

Bundschuh, Mirco; Newman, Michael C; Zubrod, Jochen P; Seitz, Frank; Rosenfeldt, Ricki R; Schulz, Ralf

2015-03-01

We argued recently that the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) are valuable metrics to include during null hypothesis significance testing: They inform the researcher about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes actually being true. Although commonly misunderstood, a reported p value estimates only the probability of obtaining the results or more extreme results if the null hypothesis of no effect was true. Calculations of the more informative PPV and NPV require a priori estimate of the probability (R). The present document discusses challenges of estimating R.

The Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM): Status and Recent Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshak, William; Khan, Maudood; Peterson, Harold

2011-01-01

Improvements to the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) are discussed. Recent results from an August 2006 run of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system that employs LNOM lightning NOx (= NO + NO2) estimates are provided. The LNOM analyzes Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) data to estimate the raw (i.e., unmixed and otherwise environmentally unmodified) vertical profile of lightning NOx. The latest LNOM estimates of (a) lightning channel length distributions, (b) lightning 1-m segment altitude distributions, and (c) the vertical profile of NOx are presented. The impact of including LNOM-estimates of lightning NOx on CMAQ output is discussed.

Techniques for estimating the quantity and quality of storm runoff from urban watersheds of Jefferson County, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evaldi, R.D.; Moore, B.L.

1994-01-01

Linear regression models are presented for estimating storm-runoff volumes, and mean con- centrations and loads of selected constituents in storm runoff from urban watersheds of Jefferson County, Kentucky. Constituents modeled include dissolved oxygen, biochemical and chemical oxygen demand, total and suspended solids, volatile residue, nitrogen, phosphorus and phosphate, calcium, magnesium, barium, copper, iron, lead, and zinc. Model estimations are a function of drainage area, percentage of impervious area, climatological data, and land uses. Estimation models are based on runoff volumes, and concen- trations and loads of constituents in runoff measured at 6 stormwater outfalls and 25 streams in Jefferson County.

Tug fleet and ground operations schedules and controls. Volume 3: Program cost estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Cost data for the tug DDT&E and operations phases are presented. Option 6 is the recommended option selected from seven options considered and was used as the basis for ground processing estimates. Option 6 provides for processing the tug in a factory clean environment in the low bay area of VAB with subsequent cleaning to visibly clean. The basis and results of the trade study to select Option 6 processing plan is included. Cost estimating methodology, a work breakdown structure, and a dictionary of WBS definitions is also provided.

Shape-based approach for the estimation of individual facial mimics in craniofacial surgery planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gladilin, Evgeny; Zachow, Stefan; Deuflhard, Peter; Hege, Hans-Christian

2002-05-01

Besides the static soft tissue prediction, the estimation of basic facial emotion expressions is another important criterion for the evaluation of craniofacial surgery planning. For a realistic simulation of facial mimics, an adequate biomechanical model of soft tissue including the mimic musculature is needed. In this work, we present an approach for the modeling of arbitrarily shaped muscles and the estimation of basic individual facial mimics, which is based on the geometrical model derived from the individual tomographic data and the general finite element modeling of soft tissue biomechanics.

Estimating aquifer transmissivity from specific capacity using MATLAB.

PubMed

McLin, Stephen G

2005-01-01

Historically, specific capacity information has been used to calculate aquifer transmissivity when pumping test data are unavailable. This paper presents a simple computer program written in the MATLAB programming language that estimates transmissivity from specific capacity data while correcting for aquifer partial penetration and well efficiency. The program graphically plots transmissivity as a function of these factors so that the user can visually estimate their relative importance in a particular application. The program is compatible with any computer operating system running MATLAB, including Windows, Macintosh OS, Linux, and Unix. Two simple examples illustrate program usage.

GEODYN programmers guide, volume 2, part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mullins, N. E.; Goad, C. C.; Dao, N. C.; Martin, T. V.; Boulware, N. L.; Chin, M. M.

1972-01-01

A guide to the GEODYN Program is presented. The program estimates orbit and geodetic parameters. It possesses the capability to estimate that set of orbital elements, station positions, measurement biases, and a set of force model parameters such that the orbital tracking data from multiple arcs of multiple satellites best fit the entire set of estimated parameters. GEODYN consists of 113 different program segments, including the main program, subroutines, functions, and block data routines. All are in G or H level FORTRAN and are currently operational on GSFC's IBM 360/95 and IBM 360/91.

Revisiting the Estimation of Dinosaur Growth Rates

PubMed Central

Myhrvold, Nathan P.

2013-01-01

Previous growth-rate studies covering 14 dinosaur taxa, as represented by 31 data sets, are critically examined and reanalyzed by using improved statistical techniques. The examination reveals that some previously reported results cannot be replicated by using the methods originally reported; results from new methods are in many cases different, in both the quantitative rates and the qualitative nature of the growth, from results in the prior literature. Asymptotic growth curves, which have been hypothesized to be ubiquitous, are shown to provide best fits for only four of the 14 taxa. Possible reasons for non-asymptotic growth patterns are discussed; they include systematic errors in the age-estimation process and, more likely, a bias toward younger ages among the specimens analyzed. Analysis of the data sets finds that only three taxa include specimens that could be considered skeletally mature (i.e., having attained 90% of maximum body size predicted by asymptotic curve fits), and eleven taxa are quite immature, with the largest specimen having attained less than 62% of predicted asymptotic size. The three taxa that include skeletally mature specimens are included in the four taxa that are best fit by asymptotic curves. The totality of results presented here suggests that previous estimates of both maximum dinosaur growth rates and maximum dinosaur sizes have little statistical support. Suggestions for future research are presented. PMID:24358133

PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE-MOVING AVERAGE (PARMA) MODELING WITH APPLICATIONS TO WATER RESOURCES.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, A.V.

1985-01-01

Results involving correlation properties and parameter estimation for autogressive-moving average models with periodic parameters are presented. A multivariate representation of the PARMA model is used to derive parameter space restrictions and difference equations for the periodic autocorrelations. Close approximation to the likelihood function for Gaussian PARMA processes results in efficient maximum-likelihood estimation procedures. Terms in the Fourier expansion of the parameters are sequentially included, and a selection criterion is given for determining the optimal number of harmonics to be included. Application of the techniques is demonstrated through analysis of a monthly streamflow time series.

Probability judgments under ambiguity and conflict

PubMed Central

Smithson, Michael

2015-01-01

Whether conflict and ambiguity are distinct kinds of uncertainty remains an open question, as does their joint impact on judgments of overall uncertainty. This paper reviews recent advances in our understanding of human judgment and decision making when both ambiguity and conflict are present, and presents two types of testable models of judgments under conflict and ambiguity. The first type concerns estimate-pooling to arrive at “best” probability estimates. The second type is models of subjective assessments of conflict and ambiguity. These models are developed for dealing with both described and experienced information. A framework for testing these models in the described-information setting is presented, including a reanalysis of a multi-nation data-set to test best-estimate models, and a study of participants' assessments of conflict, ambiguity, and overall uncertainty reported by Smithson (2013). A framework for research in the experienced-information setting is then developed, that differs substantially from extant paradigms in the literature. This framework yields new models of “best” estimates and perceived conflict. The paper concludes with specific suggestions for future research on judgment and decision making under conflict and ambiguity. PMID:26042081

Probability judgments under ambiguity and conflict.

PubMed

Smithson, Michael

2015-01-01

Whether conflict and ambiguity are distinct kinds of uncertainty remains an open question, as does their joint impact on judgments of overall uncertainty. This paper reviews recent advances in our understanding of human judgment and decision making when both ambiguity and conflict are present, and presents two types of testable models of judgments under conflict and ambiguity. The first type concerns estimate-pooling to arrive at "best" probability estimates. The second type is models of subjective assessments of conflict and ambiguity. These models are developed for dealing with both described and experienced information. A framework for testing these models in the described-information setting is presented, including a reanalysis of a multi-nation data-set to test best-estimate models, and a study of participants' assessments of conflict, ambiguity, and overall uncertainty reported by Smithson (2013). A framework for research in the experienced-information setting is then developed, that differs substantially from extant paradigms in the literature. This framework yields new models of "best" estimates and perceived conflict. The paper concludes with specific suggestions for future research on judgment and decision making under conflict and ambiguity.

Developing a method for estimating AADT on all Louisiana roads.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-07-01

Traffic flow volumes present key information needed for making transportation engineering and planning decisions. : Accurate traffic volume count has many applications including: roadway planning, design, air quality compliance, travel : model valida...

Best practices for roundabouts on state highways.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-07-01

This report presents a series of research findings from an investigation into roundabout operations. This includes a comparison of : several analysis tools for estimating roundabout performance (the Highway Capacity Manual, SIDRA, ARCADY, VISSIM, and...

Born iterative reconstruction using perturbed-phase field estimates

PubMed Central

Astheimer, Jeffrey P.; Waag, Robert C.

2008-01-01

A method of image reconstruction from scattering measurements for use in ultrasonic imaging is presented. The method employs distorted-wave Born iteration but does not require using a forward-problem solver or solving large systems of equations. These calculations are avoided by limiting intermediate estimates of medium variations to smooth functions in which the propagated fields can be approximated by phase perturbations derived from variations in a geometric path along rays. The reconstruction itself is formed by a modification of the filtered-backpropagation formula that includes correction terms to account for propagation through an estimated background. Numerical studies that validate the method for parameter ranges of interest in medical applications are presented. The efficiency of this method offers the possibility of real-time imaging from scattering measurements. PMID:19062873

VizieR Online Data Catalog: New proper motion stars with pm>=0.18"/yr (Boyd+, 2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyd, M. R.; Henry, T. J.; Jao, W.-C.; Subasavage, J. P.; Hambly, N. C.

2012-11-01

Here we present 1584 new southern proper motion systems with μ>=0.18"/yr and 16.5>R59F>=18.0. This search complements the six previous SuperCOSMOS-RECONS (SCR) proper motion searches of the southern sky for stars within the same proper motion range, but with R59F<=16.5. As in previous papers, we present distance estimates for these systems and find that three systems are estimated to be within 25pc, including one, SCR 1546-5534, possibly within the RECONS 10pc horizon at 6.7pc, making it the second nearest discovery of the searches. We find 97 white dwarf candidates with distance estimates between 10 and 120pc, as well as 557 cool subdwarf candidates. (5 data files).

Hubble Space Telescope Angular Velocity Estimation During the Robotic Servicing Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thienel, Julie K.; Sanner, Robert M.

2005-01-01

In 2004 NASA began investigation of a robotic servicing mission for the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Such a mission would require estimates of the HST attitude and rates in order to achieve a capture by the proposed Hubble robotic vehicle (HRV). HRV was to be equipped with vision-based sensors, capable of estimating the relative attitude between HST and HRV. The inertial HST attitude is derived from the measured relative attitude and the HRV computed inertial attitude. However, the relative rate between HST and HRV cannot be measured directly. Therefore, the HST rate with respect to inertial space is not known. Two approaches are developed to estimate the HST rates. Both methods utilize the measured relative attitude and the HRV inertial attitude and rates. First, a nonlinear estimator is developed. The nonlinear approach estimates the HST rate through an estimation of the inertial angular momentum. The development includes an analysis of the estimator stability given errors in the measured attitude. Second, a linearized approach is developed. The linearized approach is a pseudo-linear Kalman filter. Simulation test results for both methods are given, including scenarios with erroneous measured attitudes. Even though the development began as an application for the HST robotic servicing mission, the methods presented are applicable to any rendezvous/capture mission involving a non-cooperative target spacecraft.

Progress in navigation filter estimate fusion and its application to spacecraft rendezvous

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell

1994-01-01

A new derivation of an algorithm which fuses the outputs of two Kalman filters is presented within the context of previous research in this field. Unlike other works, this derivation clearly shows the combination of estimates to be optimal, minimizing the trace of the fused covariance matrix. The algorithm assumes that the filters use identical models, and are stable and operating optimally with respect to their own local measurements. Evidence is presented which indicates that the error ellipsoid derived from the covariance of the optimally fused estimate is contained within the intersections of the error ellipsoids of the two filters being fused. Modifications which reduce the algorithm's data transmission requirements are also presented, including a scalar gain approximation, a cross-covariance update formula which employs only the two contributing filters' autocovariances, and a form of the algorithm which can be used to reinitialize the two Kalman filters. A sufficient condition for using the optimally fused estimates to periodically reinitialize the Kalman filters in this fashion is presented and proved as a theorem. When these results are applied to an optimal spacecraft rendezvous problem, simulated performance results indicate that the use of optimally fused data leads to significantly improved robustness to initial target vehicle state errors. The following applications of estimate fusion methods to spacecraft rendezvous are also described: state vector differencing, and redundancy management.

The timber resources of Humboldt County, California.

Treesearch

Daniel D. Oswald

1968-01-01

This report presents the first complete inventory of Humboldt County's timber resources. Past Forest Survey inventories have included Humboldt County, but they were not designed to obtain volume estimates for an individual county. Humboldt County is part of a survey unit which also includes Del Norte County. There are eight such inventory units in California; and...

Sludge Conditioning. Sludge Treatment and Disposal Course #166. Instructor's Guide [and] Student Workbook.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carnegie, John W.

This lesson is an introduction to sludge conditioning. Topics covered include a brief explanation of colloidal systems, theory of chemical and heat conditioning, and conditioning aids. The lesson includes an instructor's guide and student workbook. The instructor's guide contains a description of the lesson, estimated presentation time,…

Kansas's forests, 2005: statistics, methods, and quality assurance

Treesearch

Patrick D. Miles; W. Keith Moser; Charles J. Barnett

2011-01-01

The first full annual inventory of Kansas's forests was completed in 2005 after 8,868 plots were selected and 468 forested plots were visited and measured. This report includes detailed information on forest inventory methods and data quality estimates. Important resource statistics are included in the tables. A detailed analysis of Kansas inventory is presented...

AgRISTARS. Semiannual program review presentation to level 1, interagency Coordination Committee

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

Results are presented for (1) spring small grains; (2) summer crops/corn and soybeans; and (3) crop signature characterization. The development of an early season approach, profile and segment based change estimation, and future satellite and sensor system requirements are discussed. Documentation for the inventory technology development project is included.

Affordability of Higher Education: California and Other States. Presentation to the Assembly Higher Education Committee. Report 11-01

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Jessika

2011-01-01

This is a summary of a presentation to the Assembly Higher Education Committee on college fee and total cost comparisons of California public universities with comparator universities in other states. This summary also includes grant award estimates and net cost of college by family income.

Verification bias: an under-recognized source of error in assessing the efficacy of MRI of the meniscii.

PubMed

Richardson, Michael L; Petscavage, Jonelle M

2011-11-01

The sensitivity and specificity of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for diagnosis of meniscal tears has been studied extensively, with tears usually verified by surgery. However, surgically unverified cases are often not considered in these studies, leading to verification bias, which can falsely increase the sensitivity and decrease the specificity estimates. Our study suggests that such bias may be very common in the meniscal MRI literature, and illustrates techniques to detect and correct for such bias. PubMed was searched for articles estimating sensitivity and specificity of MRI for meniscal tears. These were assessed for verification bias, deemed potentially present if a study included any patients whose MRI findings were not surgically verified. Retrospective global sensitivity analysis (GSA) was performed when possible. Thirty-nine of the 314 studies retrieved from PubMed specifically dealt with meniscal tears. All 39 included unverified patients, and hence, potential verification bias. Only seven articles included sufficient information to perform GSA. Of these, one showed definite verification bias, two showed no bias, and four others showed bias within certain ranges of disease prevalence. Only 9 of 39 acknowledged the possibility of verification bias. Verification bias is underrecognized and potentially common in published estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of MRI for the diagnosis of meniscal tears. When possible, it should be avoided by proper study design. If unavoidable, it should be acknowledged. Investigators should tabulate unverified as well as verified data. Finally, verification bias should be estimated; if present, corrected estimates of sensitivity and specificity should be used. Our online web-based calculator makes this process relatively easy. Copyright © 2011 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cart3D Simulations for the First AIAA Sonic Boom Prediction Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aftosmis, Michael J.; Nemec, Marian

2014-01-01

Simulation results for the First AIAA Sonic Boom Prediction Workshop (LBW1) are presented using an inviscid, embedded-boundary Cartesian mesh method. The method employs adjoint-based error estimation and adaptive meshing to automatically determine resolution requirements of the computational domain. Results are presented for both mandatory and optional test cases. These include an axisymmetric body of revolution, a 69deg delta wing model and a complete model of the Lockheed N+2 supersonic tri-jet with V-tail and flow through nacelles. In addition to formal mesh refinement studies and examination of the adjoint-based error estimates, mesh convergence is assessed by presenting simulation results for meshes at several resolutions which are comparable in size to the unstructured grids distributed by the workshop organizers. Data provided includes both the pressure signals required by the workshop and information on code performance in both memory and processing time. Various enhanced techniques offering improved simulation efficiency will be demonstrated and discussed.

USNO Master Clock Design Enhancements

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

25-27 January 1999, San Diego, California, USA (ION, Alexandria, Virginia), pp. 871-880. [3] R. Brown and P. Hwang , 1992, Introduction to Random...to the system include the use of a Kalman filter for phase and frequency estimates, decreasing the time interval between steers, and the redesign of...present operational system utilizes the dynamic mean as described in the previous section, but uses a Kalman filter to estimate the phase and frequency

China’s War by Other Means: Unveiling China’s Quest for Information Dominance

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-09

CHINA’S WAR BY OTHER MEANS: UNVEILING CHINA’S QUEST FOR INFORMATION DOMINANCE A thesis presented to the Faculty of the U.S...collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources...gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing this collection of information . Send comments regarding this burden estimate

Army College Fund Cost-Effectiveness Study

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-11-01

Section A.2 presents a theory of enlistment supply to provide a basis for specifying the regression model , The model Is specified in Section A.3, which...Supplementary materials are included in the final four sections. Section A.6 provides annual trends in the regression model variables. Estimates of the model ...millions, A.S. ESTIMATION OF A YOUTH EARNINGS FORECASTING MODEL Civilian pay is an important explanatory variable in the regression model . Previous

Accuracy and Precision of USNO GPS Carrier-Phase Time Transfer

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

values. Comparison measures used include estimates obtained from two-way satellite time/frequency transfer ( TWSTFT ), and GPS-based estimates obtained...the IGS are used as a benchmark in the computation. Frequency values have a few times 10 -15 fractional frequency uncertainty. TWSTFT values confirm...obtained from two-way satellite time/frequency transfer ( TWSTFT ), BIPM Circular T, and the International GNSS Service (IGS). At present, it is known that

A general model for attitude determination error analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markley, F. Landis; Seidewitz, ED; Nicholson, Mark

1988-01-01

An overview is given of a comprehensive approach to filter and dynamics modeling for attitude determination error analysis. The models presented include both batch least-squares and sequential attitude estimation processes for both spin-stabilized and three-axis stabilized spacecraft. The discussion includes a brief description of a dynamics model of strapdown gyros, but it does not cover other sensor models. Model parameters can be chosen to be solve-for parameters, which are assumed to be estimated as part of the determination process, or consider parameters, which are assumed to have errors but not to be estimated. The only restriction on this choice is that the time evolution of the consider parameters must not depend on any of the solve-for parameters. The result of an error analysis is an indication of the contributions of the various error sources to the uncertainties in the determination of the spacecraft solve-for parameters. The model presented gives the uncertainty due to errors in the a priori estimates of the solve-for parameters, the uncertainty due to measurement noise, the uncertainty due to dynamic noise (also known as process noise or measurement noise), the uncertainty due to the consider parameters, and the overall uncertainty due to all these sources of error.

On-line estimation of error covariance parameters for atmospheric data assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dee, Dick P.

1995-01-01

A simple scheme is presented for on-line estimation of covariance parameters in statistical data assimilation systems. The scheme is based on a maximum-likelihood approach in which estimates are produced on the basis of a single batch of simultaneous observations. Simple-sample covariance estimation is reasonable as long as the number of available observations exceeds the number of tunable parameters by two or three orders of magnitude. Not much is known at present about model error associated with actual forecast systems. Our scheme can be used to estimate some important statistical model error parameters such as regionally averaged variances or characteristic correlation length scales. The advantage of the single-sample approach is that it does not rely on any assumptions about the temporal behavior of the covariance parameters: time-dependent parameter estimates can be continuously adjusted on the basis of current observations. This is of practical importance since it is likely to be the case that both model error and observation error strongly depend on the actual state of the atmosphere. The single-sample estimation scheme can be incorporated into any four-dimensional statistical data assimilation system that involves explicit calculation of forecast error covariances, including optimal interpolation (OI) and the simplified Kalman filter (SKF). The computational cost of the scheme is high but not prohibitive; on-line estimation of one or two covariance parameters in each analysis box of an operational bozed-OI system is currently feasible. A number of numerical experiments performed with an adaptive SKF and an adaptive version of OI, using a linear two-dimensional shallow-water model and artificially generated model error are described. The performance of the nonadaptive versions of these methods turns out to depend rather strongly on correct specification of model error parameters. These parameters are estimated under a variety of conditions, including uniformly distributed model error and time-dependent model error statistics.

Workshop: Valuation for Environmental Policy: Ecological Benefits (2007)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Two-day workshop includes research examining There were presentations on the estimation of values for ecological goods and services such as water quality, wetlands, riparian habitat, and aquatic resources, improved methods for benefits transfer.

Goddard trajectory determination subsystem: Mathematical specifications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wagner, W. E. (Editor); Velez, C. E. (Editor)

1972-01-01

The mathematical specifications of the Goddard trajectory determination subsystem of the flight dynamics system are presented. These specifications include the mathematical description of the coordinate systems, dynamic and measurement model, numerical integration techniques, and statistical estimation concepts.

A modified blade element theory for estimation of forces generated by a beetle-mimicking flapping wing system.

PubMed

Truong, Q T; Nguyen, Q V; Truong, V T; Park, H C; Byun, D Y; Goo, N S

2011-09-01

We present an unsteady blade element theory (BET) model to estimate the aerodynamic forces produced by a freely flying beetle and a beetle-mimicking flapping wing system. Added mass and rotational forces are included to accommodate the unsteady force. In addition to the aerodynamic forces needed to accurately estimate the time history of the forces, the inertial forces of the wings are also calculated. All of the force components are considered based on the full three-dimensional (3D) motion of the wing. The result obtained by the present BET model is validated with the data which were presented in a reference paper. The difference between the averages of the estimated forces (lift and drag) and the measured forces in the reference is about 5.7%. The BET model is also used to estimate the force produced by a freely flying beetle and a beetle-mimicking flapping wing system. The wing kinematics used in the BET calculation of a real beetle and the flapping wing system are captured using high-speed cameras. The results show that the average estimated vertical force of the beetle is reasonably close to the weight of the beetle, and the average estimated thrust of the beetle-mimicking flapping wing system is in good agreement with the measured value. Our results show that the unsteady lift and drag coefficients measured by Dickinson et al are still useful for relatively higher Reynolds number cases, and the proposed BET can be a good way to estimate the force produced by a flapping wing system.

Motion Field Estimation for a Dynamic Scene Using a 3D LiDAR

PubMed Central

Li, Qingquan; Zhang, Liang; Mao, Qingzhou; Zou, Qin; Zhang, Pin; Feng, Shaojun; Ochieng, Washington

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a novel motion field estimation method based on a 3D light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sensor for motion sensing for intelligent driverless vehicles and active collision avoidance systems. Unlike multiple target tracking methods, which estimate the motion state of detected targets, such as cars and pedestrians, motion field estimation regards the whole scene as a motion field in which each little element has its own motion state. Compared to multiple target tracking, segmentation errors and data association errors have much less significance in motion field estimation, making it more accurate and robust. This paper presents an intact 3D LiDAR-based motion field estimation method, including pre-processing, a theoretical framework for the motion field estimation problem and practical solutions. The 3D LiDAR measurements are first projected to small-scale polar grids, and then, after data association and Kalman filtering, the motion state of every moving grid is estimated. To reduce computing time, a fast data association algorithm is proposed. Furthermore, considering the spatial correlation of motion among neighboring grids, a novel spatial-smoothing algorithm is also presented to optimize the motion field. The experimental results using several data sets captured in different cities indicate that the proposed motion field estimation is able to run in real-time and performs robustly and effectively. PMID:25207868

Motion field estimation for a dynamic scene using a 3D LiDAR.

PubMed

Li, Qingquan; Zhang, Liang; Mao, Qingzhou; Zou, Qin; Zhang, Pin; Feng, Shaojun; Ochieng, Washington

2014-09-09

This paper proposes a novel motion field estimation method based on a 3D light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sensor for motion sensing for intelligent driverless vehicles and active collision avoidance systems. Unlike multiple target tracking methods, which estimate the motion state of detected targets, such as cars and pedestrians, motion field estimation regards the whole scene as a motion field in which each little element has its own motion state. Compared to multiple target tracking, segmentation errors and data association errors have much less significance in motion field estimation, making it more accurate and robust. This paper presents an intact 3D LiDAR-based motion field estimation method, including pre-processing, a theoretical framework for the motion field estimation problem and practical solutions. The 3D LiDAR measurements are first projected to small-scale polar grids, and then, after data association and Kalman filtering, the motion state of every moving grid is estimated. To reduce computing time, a fast data association algorithm is proposed. Furthermore, considering the spatial correlation of motion among neighboring grids, a novel spatial-smoothing algorithm is also presented to optimize the motion field. The experimental results using several data sets captured in different cities indicate that the proposed motion field estimation is able to run in real-time and performs robustly and effectively.

Reinforcing flood-risk estimation.

PubMed

Reed, Duncan W

2002-07-15

Flood-frequency estimation is inherently uncertain. The practitioner applies a combination of gauged data, scientific method and hydrological judgement to derive a flood-frequency curve for a particular site. The resulting estimate can be thought fully satisfactory only if it is broadly consistent with all that is reliably known about the flood-frequency behaviour of the river. The paper takes as its main theme the search for information to strengthen a flood-risk estimate made from peak flows alone. Extra information comes in many forms, including documentary and monumental records of historical floods, and palaeological markers. Meteorological information is also useful, although rainfall rarity is difficult to assess objectively and can be a notoriously unreliable indicator of flood rarity. On highly permeable catchments, groundwater levels present additional data. Other types of information are relevant to judging hydrological similarity when the flood-frequency estimate derives from data pooled across several catchments. After highlighting information sources, the paper explores a second theme: that of consistency in flood-risk estimates. Following publication of the Flood estimation handbook, studies of flood risk are now using digital catchment data. Automated calculation methods allow estimates by standard methods to be mapped basin-wide, revealing anomalies at special sites such as river confluences. Such mapping presents collateral information of a new character. Can this be used to achieve flood-risk estimates that are coherent throughout a river basin?

Predicting the Magnetic Properties of ICMEs: A Pragmatic View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, P.; Linker, J.; Ben-Nun, M.; Torok, T.; Ulrich, R. K.; Russell, C. T.; Lai, H.; de Koning, C. A.; Pizzo, V. J.; Liu, Y.; Hoeksema, J. T.

2017-12-01

The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field plays a crucial role in being able to successfully predict space weather phenomena. Yet, thus far, it has proven extremely difficult to forecast with any degree of accuracy. In this presentation, we describe an empirically-based modeling framework for estimating Bz values during the passage of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The model includes: (1) an empirically-based estimate of the magnetic properties of the flux rope in the low corona (including helicity and field strength); (2) an empirically-based estimate of the dynamic properties of the flux rope in the high corona (including direction, speed, and mass); and (3) a physics-based estimate of the evolution of the flux rope during its passage to 1 AU driven by the output from (1) and (2). We compare model output with observations for a selection of events to estimate the accuracy of this approach. Importantly, we pay specific attention to the uncertainties introduced by the components within the framework, separating intrinsic limitations from those that can be improved upon, either by better observations or more sophisticated modeling. Our analysis suggests that current observations/modeling are insufficient for this empirically-based framework to provide reliable and actionable prediction of the magnetic properties of ICMEs. We suggest several paths that may lead to better forecasts.

State energy price and expenditure report 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1997-06-01

The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates individually for the 50 States and the District of Columbia and in aggregate for the United States. The price and expenditure estimates developed in the State Energy Price and Expenditure Data System (SEPEDS) are provided by energy source and economic sector and are published for the years 1970 through 1994. Consumption estimates used to calculate expenditures and the documentation for those estimates are taken from the State Energy Data Report 1994, Consumption Estimates (SEDR), published in October 1996. Expenditures are calculated by multiplying the price estimatesmore » by the consumption estimates, which are adjusted to remove process fuel; intermediate petroleum products; and other consumption that has no direct fuel costs, i.e., hydroelectric, geothermal, wind, solar, and photovoltaic energy sources. Documentation is included describing the development of price estimates, data sources, and calculation methods. 316 tabs.« less

The Flight Optimization System Weights Estimation Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wells, Douglas P.; Horvath, Bryce L.; McCullers, Linwood A.

2017-01-01

FLOPS has been the primary aircraft synthesis software used by the Aeronautics Systems Analysis Branch at NASA Langley Research Center. It was created for rapid conceptual aircraft design and advanced technology impact assessments. FLOPS is a single computer program that includes weights estimation, aerodynamics estimation, engine cycle analysis, propulsion data scaling and interpolation, detailed mission performance analysis, takeoff and landing performance analysis, noise footprint estimation, and cost analysis. It is well known as a baseline and common denominator for aircraft design studies. FLOPS is capable of calibrating a model to known aircraft data, making it useful for new aircraft and modifications to existing aircraft. The weight estimation method in FLOPS is known to be of high fidelity for conventional tube with wing aircraft and a substantial amount of effort went into its development. This report serves as a comprehensive documentation of the FLOPS weight estimation method. The development process is presented with the weight estimation process.

Estimating Power System Dynamic States Using Extended Kalman Filter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Zhenyu; Schneider, Kevin P.; Nieplocha, Jaroslaw

2014-10-31

Abstract—The state estimation tools which are currently deployed in power system control rooms are based on a steady state assumption. As a result, the suite of operational tools that rely on state estimation results as inputs do not have dynamic information available and their accuracy is compromised. This paper investigates the application of Extended Kalman Filtering techniques for estimating dynamic states in the state estimation process. The new formulated “dynamic state estimation” includes true system dynamics reflected in differential equations, not like previously proposed “dynamic state estimation” which only considers the time-variant snapshots based on steady state modeling. This newmore » dynamic state estimation using Extended Kalman Filter has been successfully tested on a multi-machine system. Sensitivity studies with respect to noise levels, sampling rates, model errors, and parameter errors are presented as well to illustrate the robust performance of the developed dynamic state estimation process.« less

Survival analysis for the missing censoring indicator model using kernel density estimation techniques

PubMed Central

Subramanian, Sundarraman

2008-01-01

This article concerns asymptotic theory for a new estimator of a survival function in the missing censoring indicator model of random censorship. Specifically, the large sample results for an inverse probability-of-non-missingness weighted estimator of the cumulative hazard function, so far not available, are derived, including an almost sure representation with rate for a remainder term, and uniform strong consistency with rate of convergence. The estimator is based on a kernel estimate for the conditional probability of non-missingness of the censoring indicator. Expressions for its bias and variance, in turn leading to an expression for the mean squared error as a function of the bandwidth, are also obtained. The corresponding estimator of the survival function, whose weak convergence is derived, is asymptotically efficient. A numerical study, comparing the performances of the proposed and two other currently existing efficient estimators, is presented. PMID:18953423

Survival analysis for the missing censoring indicator model using kernel density estimation techniques.

PubMed

Subramanian, Sundarraman

2006-01-01

This article concerns asymptotic theory for a new estimator of a survival function in the missing censoring indicator model of random censorship. Specifically, the large sample results for an inverse probability-of-non-missingness weighted estimator of the cumulative hazard function, so far not available, are derived, including an almost sure representation with rate for a remainder term, and uniform strong consistency with rate of convergence. The estimator is based on a kernel estimate for the conditional probability of non-missingness of the censoring indicator. Expressions for its bias and variance, in turn leading to an expression for the mean squared error as a function of the bandwidth, are also obtained. The corresponding estimator of the survival function, whose weak convergence is derived, is asymptotically efficient. A numerical study, comparing the performances of the proposed and two other currently existing efficient estimators, is presented.

Using the entire history in the analysis of nested case cohort samples.

PubMed

Rivera, C L; Lumley, T

2016-08-15

Countermatching designs can provide more efficient estimates than simple matching or case-cohort designs in certain situations such as when good surrogate variables for an exposure of interest are available. We extend pseudolikelihood estimation for the Cox model under countermatching designs to models where time-varying covariates are considered. We also implement pseudolikelihood with calibrated weights to improve efficiency in nested case-control designs in the presence of time-varying variables. A simulation study is carried out, which considers four different scenarios including a binary time-dependent variable, a continuous time-dependent variable, and the case including interactions in each. Simulation results show that pseudolikelihood with calibrated weights under countermatching offers large gains in efficiency if compared to case-cohort. Pseudolikelihood with calibrated weights yielded more efficient estimators than pseudolikelihood estimators. Additionally, estimators were more efficient under countermatching than under case-cohort for the situations considered. The methods are illustrated using the Colorado Plateau uranium miners cohort. Furthermore, we present a general method to generate survival times with time-varying covariates. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The accuracy of less: Natural bounds explain why quantity decreases are estimated more accurately than quantity increases.

PubMed

Chandon, Pierre; Ordabayeva, Nailya

2017-02-01

Five studies show that people, including experts such as professional chefs, estimate quantity decreases more accurately than quantity increases. We argue that this asymmetry occurs because physical quantities cannot be negative. Consequently, there is a natural lower bound (zero) when estimating decreasing quantities but no upper bound when estimating increasing quantities, which can theoretically grow to infinity. As a result, the "accuracy of less" disappears (a) when a numerical or a natural upper bound is present when estimating quantity increases, or (b) when people are asked to estimate the (unbounded) ratio of change from 1 size to another for both increasing and decreasing quantities. Ruling out explanations related to loss aversion, symbolic number mapping, and the visual arrangement of the stimuli, we show that the "accuracy of less" influences choice and demonstrate its robustness in a meta-analysis that includes previously published results. Finally, we discuss how the "accuracy of less" may explain asymmetric reactions to the supersizing and downsizing of food portions, some instances of the endowment effect, and asymmetries in the perception of increases and decreases in physical and psychological distance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Annual Estimates of Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions: 1860-1994

DOE Data Explorer

Stern, David I. [Boston Univ., MA (United States); Kaufmann, Robert K. [Boston Univ., MA (United States)

1998-01-01

The authors provide the first estimates, by year, of global man-made emissions of methane, from 1860 through 1994. The methods, including the rationale for the various coefficients and assumptions used in deriving the estimates, are described fully in Stern and Kaufmann (1995, 1996), which provides the estimates for the period 1860-1993; the data presented here are revised and updated through 1994. Some formulae and coefficients were also revised in that process. Estimates are provided for total anthropogenic emissions, as well as emissions for the following component categories: Flaring and Venting of Natural Gas; Oil and Gas Supply Systems, Excluding Flaring; Coal Mining; Biomass Burning; Livestock Farming; Rice Farming and Related Activities; Landfills. Changes in emissions over time were estimated by treating emissions as a function of variables (such as population or coal production) for which historical time series are available.

Nonlinear adaptive control system design with asymptotically stable parameter estimation error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishkov, Rumen; Darmonski, Stanislav

2018-01-01

The paper presents a new general method for nonlinear adaptive system design with asymptotic stability of the parameter estimation error. The advantages of the approach include asymptotic unknown parameter estimation without persistent excitation and capability to directly control the estimates transient response time. The method proposed modifies the basic parameter estimation dynamics designed via a known nonlinear adaptive control approach. The modification is based on the generalised prediction error, a priori constraints with a hierarchical parameter projection algorithm, and the stable data accumulation concepts. The data accumulation principle is the main tool for achieving asymptotic unknown parameter estimation. It relies on the parametric identifiability system property introduced. Necessary and sufficient conditions for exponential stability of the data accumulation dynamics are derived. The approach is applied in a nonlinear adaptive speed tracking vector control of a three-phase induction motor.

microclim: Global estimates of hourly microclimate based on long-term monthly climate averages

PubMed Central

Kearney, Michael R; Isaac, Andrew P; Porter, Warren P

2014-01-01

The mechanistic links between climate and the environmental sensitivities of organisms occur through the microclimatic conditions that organisms experience. Here we present a dataset of gridded hourly estimates of typical microclimatic conditions (air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation, sky radiation and substrate temperatures from the surface to 1 m depth) at high resolution (~15 km) for the globe. The estimates are for the middle day of each month, based on long-term average macroclimates, and include six shade levels and three generic substrates (soil, rock and sand) per pixel. These data are suitable for deriving biophysical estimates of the heat, water and activity budgets of terrestrial organisms. PMID:25977764

Microclim: Global estimates of hourly microclimate based on long-term monthly climate averages.

PubMed

Kearney, Michael R; Isaac, Andrew P; Porter, Warren P

2014-01-01

The mechanistic links between climate and the environmental sensitivities of organisms occur through the microclimatic conditions that organisms experience. Here we present a dataset of gridded hourly estimates of typical microclimatic conditions (air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation, sky radiation and substrate temperatures from the surface to 1 m depth) at high resolution (~15 km) for the globe. The estimates are for the middle day of each month, based on long-term average macroclimates, and include six shade levels and three generic substrates (soil, rock and sand) per pixel. These data are suitable for deriving biophysical estimates of the heat, water and activity budgets of terrestrial organisms.

Lunar base thermal management/power system analysis and design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcghee, Jerry R.

1992-01-01

A compilation of several lunar surface thermal management and power system studies completed under contract and IR&D is presented. The work includes analysis and preliminary design of all major components of an integrated thermal management system, including loads determination, active internal acquisition and transport equipment, external transport systems (active and passive), passive insulation, solar shielding, and a range of lunar surface radiator concepts. Several computer codes were utilized in support of this study, including RADSIM to calculate radiation exchange factors and view factors, RADIATOR (developed in-house) for heat rejection system sizing and performance analysis over a lunar day, SURPWER for power system sizing, and CRYSTORE for cryogenic system performance predictions. Although much of the work was performed in support of lunar rover studies, any or all of the results can be applied to a range of surface applications. Output data include thermal loads summaries, subsystem performance data, mass, and volume estimates (where applicable), integrated and worst-case lunar day radiator size/mass and effective sink temperatures for several concepts (shielded and unshielded), and external transport system performance estimates for both single and two-phase (heat pumped) transport loops. Several advanced radiator concepts are presented, along with brief assessments of possible system benefits and potential drawbacks. System point designs are presented for several cases, executed in support of the contract and IR&D studies, although the parametric nature of the analysis is stressed to illustrate applicability of the analysis procedure to a wide variety of lunar surface systems. The reference configuration(s) derived from the various studies will be presented along with supporting criteria. A preliminary design will also be presented for the reference basing scenario, including qualitative data regarding TPS concerns and issues.

Planning, evaluation and analytical studies in planetary quarantine and spacecraft sterilization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

The technical and analytical support used to aid in developing requirements for planetary quarantine are presented. The investigation was divided into 8 work tasks which are presented in tabular form. Data include methods of sterilization, safety margins for quarantine, revision of contamination logs for Mars and Venus, and estimates of encapsulated and 'free' microbial burden.

Low-flow characteristics of Indiana streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, J.A.

1983-01-01

Knowledge of low-flow data for Indiana streams is essential to the planners and developers of water resources for municipal, industrial, and recreational uses in the State. Low-flow data for 219 continuous-record gaging stations through the 1978 water year and for some stations since then are presented in tables and curves. Flow-duration and low-flow-frequency data were estimated or determined for continuous-record stations having more than 10 years of record. In addition, low-flow-frequency data were estimated for 248 partial-record stations. Methods for estimating these data are included in the report. (USGS)

Availability and Quality of Size Estimations of Female Sex Workers, Men Who Have Sex with Men, People Who Inject Drugs and Transgender Women in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

PubMed Central

Sabin, Keith; Zhao, Jinkou; Garcia Calleja, Jesus Maria; Sheng, Yaou; Arias Garcia, Sonia; Reinisch, Annette; Komatsu, Ryuichi

2016-01-01

Objective To assess the availability and quality of population size estimations of female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drug (PWID) and transgender women. Methods Size estimation data since 2010 were retrieved from global reporting databases, Global Fund grant application documents, and the peer-reviewed and grey literature. Overall quality and availability were assessed against a defined set of criteria, including estimation methods, geographic coverage, and extrapolation approaches. Estimates were compositely categorized into ‘nationally adequate’, ‘nationally inadequate but locally adequate’, ‘documented but inadequate methods’, ‘undocumented or untimely’ and ‘no data.’ Findings Of 140 countries assessed, 41 did not report any estimates since 2010. Among 99 countries with at least one estimate, 38 were categorized as having nationally adequate estimates and 30 as having nationally inadequate but locally adequate estimates. Multiplier, capture-recapture, census and enumeration, and programmatic mapping were the most commonly used methods. Most countries relied on only one estimate for a given population while about half of all reports included national estimates. A variety of approaches were applied to extrapolate from sites-level numbers to national estimates in two-thirds of countries. Conclusions Size estimates for FSW, MSM, PWID and transgender women are increasingly available but quality varies widely. The different approaches present challenges for data use in design, implementation and evaluation of programs for these populations in half of the countries assessed. Guidance should be further developed to recommend: a) applying multiple estimation methods; b) estimating size for a minimum number of sites; and, c) documenting extrapolation approaches. PMID:27163256

Hierarchical information fusion for global displacement estimation in microsensor motion capture.

PubMed

Meng, Xiaoli; Zhang, Zhi-Qiang; Wu, Jian-Kang; Wong, Wai-Choong

2013-07-01

This paper presents a novel hierarchical information fusion algorithm to obtain human global displacement for different gait patterns, including walking, running, and hopping based on seven body-worn inertial and magnetic measurement units. In the first-level sensor fusion, the orientation for each segment is achieved by a complementary Kalman filter (CKF) which compensates for the orientation error of the inertial navigation system solution through its error state vector. For each foot segment, the displacement is also estimated by the CKF, and zero velocity update is included for the drift reduction in foot displacement estimation. Based on the segment orientations and left/right foot locations, two global displacement estimates can be acquired from left/right lower limb separately using a linked biomechanical model. In the second-level geometric fusion, another Kalman filter is deployed to compensate for the difference between the two estimates from the sensor fusion and get more accurate overall global displacement estimation. The updated global displacement will be transmitted to left/right foot based on the human lower biomechanical model to restrict the drifts in both feet displacements. The experimental results have shown that our proposed method can accurately estimate human locomotion for the three different gait patterns with regard to the optical motion tracker.

Genetic parameters for hoof health traits estimated with linear and threshold models using alternative cohorts.

PubMed

Malchiodi, F; Koeck, A; Mason, S; Christen, A M; Kelton, D F; Schenkel, F S; Miglior, F

2017-04-01

A national genetic evaluation program for hoof health could be achieved by using hoof lesion data collected directly by hoof trimmers. However, not all cows in the herds during the trimming period are always presented to the hoof trimmer. This preselection process may not be completely random, leading to erroneous estimations of the prevalence of hoof lesions in the herd and inaccuracies in the genetic evaluation. The main objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for individual hoof lesions in Canadian Holsteins by using an alternative cohort to consider all cows in the herd during the period of the hoof trimming sessions, including those that were not examined by the trimmer over the entire lactation. A second objective was to compare the estimated heritabilities and breeding values for resistance to hoof lesions obtained with threshold and linear models. Data were recorded by 23 hoof trimmers serving 521 herds located in Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario. A total of 73,559 hoof-trimming records from 53,654 cows were collected between 2009 and 2012. Hoof lesions included in the analysis were digital dermatitis, interdigital dermatitis, interdigital hyperplasia, sole hemorrhage, sole ulcer, toe ulcer, and white line disease. All variables were analyzed as binary traits, as the presence or the absence of the lesions, using a threshold and a linear animal model. Two different cohorts were created: Cohort 1, which included only cows presented to hoof trimmers, and Cohort 2, which included all cows present in the herd at the time of hoof trimmer visit. Using a threshold model, heritabilities on the observed scale ranged from 0.01 to 0.08 for Cohort 1 and from 0.01 to 0.06 for Cohort 2. Heritabilities estimated with the linear model ranged from 0.01 to 0.07 for Cohort 1 and from 0.01 to 0.05 for Cohort 2. Despite a low heritability, the distribution of the sire breeding values showed large and exploitable variation among sires. Higher breeding values for hoof lesion resistance corresponded to sires with a higher prevalence of healthy daughters. The rank correlations between estimated breeding values ranged from 0.96 to 0.99 when predicted using either one of the 2 cohorts and from 0.94 to 0.99 when predicted using either a threshold or a linear model. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keating, K.A.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.; Moody, D.

2001-01-01

For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), minimum population size and allowable numbers of human-caused mortalities have been calculated as a function of the number of unique females with cubs-of-the-year (FCUB) seen during a 3- year period. This approach underestimates the total number of FCUB, thereby biasing estimates of population size and sustainable mortality. Also, it does not permit calculation of valid confidence bounds. Many statistical methods can resolve or mitigate these problems, but there is no universal best method. Instead, relative performances of different methods can vary with population size, sample size, and degree of heterogeneity among sighting probabilities for individual animals. We compared 7 nonparametric estimators, using Monte Carlo techniques to assess performances over the range of sampling conditions deemed plausible for the Yellowstone population. Our goal was to estimate the number of FCUB present in the population each year. Our evaluation differed from previous comparisons of such estimators by including sample coverage methods and by treating individual sightings, rather than sample periods, as the sample unit. Consequently, our conclusions also differ from earlier studies. Recommendations regarding estimators and necessary sample sizes are presented, together with estimates of annual numbers of FCUB in the Yellowstone population with bootstrap confidence bounds.

Trajectory prediction for ballistic missiles based on boost-phase LOS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeddanapudi, Murali; Bar-Shalom, Yaakov

1997-10-01

This paper addresses the problem of the estimation of the trajectory of a tactical ballistic missile using line of sight (LOS) measurements from one or more passive sensors (typically satellites). The major difficulties of this problem include: the estimation of the unknown time of launch, incorporation of (inaccurate) target thrust profiles to model the target dynamics during the boost phase and an overall ill-conditioning of the estimation problem due to poor observability of the target motion via the LOS measurements. We present a robust estimation procedure based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm that provides both the target state estimate and error covariance taking into consideration the complications mentioned above. An important consideration in the defense against tactical ballistic missiles is the determination of the target position and error covariance at the acquisition range of a surveillance radar in the vicinity of the impact point. We present a systematic procedure to propagate the target state and covariance to a nominal time, when it is within the detection range of a surveillance radar to obtain a cueing volume. Mont Carlo simulation studies on typical single and two sensor scenarios indicate that the proposed algorithms are accurate in terms of the estimates and the estimator calculated covariances are consistent with the errors.

An operational GLS model for hydrologic regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tasker, Gary D.; Stedinger, J.R.

1989-01-01

Recent Monte Carlo studies have documented the value of generalized least squares (GLS) procedures to estimate empirical relationships between streamflow statistics and physiographic basin characteristics. This paper presents a number of extensions of the GLS method that deal with realities and complexities of regional hydrologic data sets that were not addressed in the simulation studies. These extensions include: (1) a more realistic model of the underlying model errors; (2) smoothed estimates of cross correlation of flows; (3) procedures for including historical flow data; (4) diagnostic statistics describing leverage and influence for GLS regression; and (5) the formulation of a mathematical program for evaluating future gaging activities. ?? 1989.

A FORTRAN program for determining aircraft stability and control derivatives from flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maine, R. E.; Iliff, K. W.

1975-01-01

A digital computer program written in FORTRAN IV for the estimation of aircraft stability and control derivatives is presented. The program uses a maximum likelihood estimation method, and two associated programs for routine, related data handling are also included. The three programs form a package that can be used by relatively inexperienced personnel to process large amounts of data with a minimum of manpower. This package was used to successfully analyze 1500 maneuvers on 20 aircraft, and is designed to be used without modification on as many types of computers as feasible. Program listings and sample check cases are included.

Estimates of electricity requirements for the recovery of mineral commodities, with examples applied to sub-Saharan Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bleiwas, Donald I.

2011-01-01

To produce materials from mine to market it is necessary to overcome obstacles that include the force of gravity, the strength of molecular bonds, and technological inefficiencies. These challenges are met by the application of energy to accomplish the work that includes the direct use of electricity, fossil fuel, and manual labor. The tables and analyses presented in this study contain estimates of electricity consumption for the mining and processing of ores, concentrates, intermediate products, and industrial and refined metallic commodities on a kilowatt-hour per unit basis, primarily the metric ton or troy ounce. Data contained in tables pertaining to specific currently operating facilities are static, as the amount of electricity consumed to process or produce a unit of material changes over time for a great number of reasons. Estimates were developed from diverse sources that included feasibility studies, company-produced annual and sustainability reports, conference proceedings, discussions with government and industry experts, journal articles, reference texts, and studies by nongovernmental organizations.

Improved Methodology for Benefit Estimation of Preservation Projects

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-04-01

This research report presents an improved process for evaluating the benefits and economic tradeoffs associated with a variety of highway preservation projects. It includes a summary of results from a comprehensive phone survey concerning the use and...

Economics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Tables covering the selling price of hydrogen as a function of each process temperature studied are presented. Estimated selling price, based on capital costs and operating and maintenance costs, is included. In all cases, no credit was given for the methane component of hydrogen.

COSTS OF URBAN STORMWATER CONTROL

EPA Science Inventory

This report presents information on the cost of stormwater pollution control facilities in urban areas, including collection, control, and treatment systems. Information on prior cost studies of control technologies and cost estimating models used in these studies was collected,...

COSTS OF URBAN STORMWATER CONTROL

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents information on the cost of stormwater pollution control facilities in urban areas, including collection, control, and treatment systems. Information on prior cost studies of control technologies and cost estimating models used in these studies was collected, r...

Spectral analysis of groove spacing on Ganymede

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grimm, R. E.

1984-01-01

The technique used to analyze groove spacing on Ganymede is presented. Data from Voyager images are used determine the surface topography and position of the grooves. Power spectal estimates are statistically analyzed and sample data is included.

Prioritizing pharmaceuticals in municipal wastewater

EPA Science Inventory

Oral presentation at SETAC North America 32nd annual meeting, describing our prioritization of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), based on estimates of risks posed by API residues originating from municipal wastewater. Goals of this project include prioritization of APIs f...

A new family of stable elements for the Stokes problem based on a mixed Galerkin/least-squares finite element formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Franca, Leopoldo P.; Loula, Abimael F. D.; Hughes, Thomas J. R.; Miranda, Isidoro

1989-01-01

Adding to the classical Hellinger-Reissner formulation, a residual form of the equilibrium equation, a new Galerkin/least-squares finite element method is derived. It fits within the framework of a mixed finite element method and is stable for rather general combinations of stress and velocity interpolations, including equal-order discontinuous stress and continuous velocity interpolations which are unstable within the Galerkin approach. Error estimates are presented based on a generalization of the Babuska-Brezzi theory. Numerical results (not presented herein) have confirmed these estimates as well as the good accuracy and stability of the method.

Calculating system reliability with SRFYDO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morzinski, Jerome; Anderson - Cook, Christine M; Klamann, Richard M

2010-01-01

SRFYDO is a process for estimating reliability of complex systems. Using information from all applicable sources, including full-system (flight) data, component test data, and expert (engineering) judgment, SRFYDO produces reliability estimates and predictions. It is appropriate for series systems with possibly several versions of the system which share some common components. It models reliability as a function of age and up to 2 other lifecycle (usage) covariates. Initial output from its Exploratory Data Analysis mode consists of plots and numerical summaries so that the user can check data entry and model assumptions, and help determine a final form for themore » system model. The System Reliability mode runs a complete reliability calculation using Bayesian methodology. This mode produces results that estimate reliability at the component, sub-system, and system level. The results include estimates of uncertainty, and can predict reliability at some not-too-distant time in the future. This paper presents an overview of the underlying statistical model for the analysis, discusses model assumptions, and demonstrates usage of SRFYDO.« less

ANNz2: Photometric Redshift and Probability Distribution Function Estimation using Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadeh, I.; Abdalla, F. B.; Lahav, O.

2016-10-01

We present ANNz2, a new implementation of the public software for photometric redshift (photo-z) estimation of Collister & Lahav, which now includes generation of full probability distribution functions (PDFs). ANNz2 utilizes multiple machine learning methods, such as artificial neural networks and boosted decision/regression trees. The objective of the algorithm is to optimize the performance of the photo-z estimation, to properly derive the associated uncertainties, and to produce both single-value solutions and PDFs. In addition, estimators are made available, which mitigate possible problems of non-representative or incomplete spectroscopic training samples. ANNz2 has already been used as part of the first weak lensing analysis of the Dark Energy Survey, and is included in the experiment's first public data release. Here we illustrate the functionality of the code using data from the tenth data release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey. The code is available for download at http://github.com/IftachSadeh/ANNZ.

Robust inference in discrete hazard models for randomized clinical trials.

PubMed

Nguyen, Vinh Q; Gillen, Daniel L

2012-10-01

Time-to-event data in which failures are only assessed at discrete time points are common in many clinical trials. Examples include oncology studies where events are observed through periodic screenings such as radiographic scans. When the survival endpoint is acknowledged to be discrete, common methods for the analysis of observed failure times include the discrete hazard models (e.g., the discrete-time proportional hazards and the continuation ratio model) and the proportional odds model. In this manuscript, we consider estimation of a marginal treatment effect in discrete hazard models where the constant treatment effect assumption is violated. We demonstrate that the estimator resulting from these discrete hazard models is consistent for a parameter that depends on the underlying censoring distribution. An estimator that removes the dependence on the censoring mechanism is proposed and its asymptotic distribution is derived. Basing inference on the proposed estimator allows for statistical inference that is scientifically meaningful and reproducible. Simulation is used to assess the performance of the presented methodology in finite samples.

Lithium Resources for the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kesler, S.; Gruber, P.; Medina, P.; Keolian, G.; Everson, M. P.; Wallington, T.

2011-12-01

Lithium is an important industrial compound and the principal component of high energy-density batteries. Because it is the lightest solid element, these batteries are widely used in consumer electronics and are expected to be the basis for battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) for the 21st century. In view of the large incremental demand for lithium that will result from expanded use of various types of EVs, long-term estimates of lithium demand and supply are advisable. For GDP growth rates of 2 to 3% and battery recycling rates of 90 to 100%, total demand for lithium for all markets is expected to be a maximum of 19.6 million tonnes through 2100. This includes 3.2 million tonnes for industrial compounds, 3.6 million tonnes for consumer electronics, and 12.8 million tonnes for EVs. Lithium-bearing mineral deposits that might supply this demand contain an estimated resource of approximately 39 million tonnes, although many of these deposits have not been adequately evaluated. These lithium-bearing mineral deposits are of two main types, non-marine playa-brine deposits and igneous deposits. Playa-brine deposits have the greatest immediate resource potential (estimated at 66% of global resources) and include the Salar de Atacama (Chile), the source of almost half of current world lithium production, as well as Zabuye (China/Tibet) and Hombre Muerto (Argentina). Additional important playa-brine lithium resources include Rincon (Argentina), Qaidam (China), Silver Peak (USA) and Uyuni (Bolivia), which together account for about 35% of the estimated global lithium resource. Information on the size and continuity of brine-bearing aquifers in many of these deposits is limited, and differences in chemical composition of brines from deposit to deposit require different extraction processes and yield different product mixes of lithium, boron, potassium and other elements. Numerous other brines in playas (Great Salt Lake, Searles Lake), geothermal systems (Salton Sea) and oil fields contain lithium, but in low concentrations that add relatively little to estimated global resources. Igneous deposits, which constitute 26% of estimated global resources, consist largely of pegmatites, including past and present producers at Kings Mountain-Bessemer City (USA), Greenbushes (Australia) and Bikita (Zimbabwe), as well as numerous active prospects, especially in Canada and China. Amenability of these deposits to economic extraction is controlled by mineralogy and zoning of lithium, which vary considerably from deposit to deposit. An additional 8% of global lithium resources is estimated to be present in unusual deposits including largely hectorite clays in volcaniclastic rocks at Kings Valley (USA) and jadarite in lacustrine evaporite deposits (Serbia), which present new challenges to both mining and processing. If this highly varied population of deposits can be converted to reserves, lithium supplies for the 21st century EV market are relatively secure.

U.S. crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves 1997 annual report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, John H.; Grape, Steven G.; Green, Rhonda S.

1998-12-01

This report presents estimates of proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids as of December 31, 1997, as well as production volumes for the US and selected States and State subdivisions for the year 1997. Estimates are presented for the following four categories of natural gas: total gas (wet after lease separation), nonassociated gas and associated-dissolved gas (which are the two major types of wet natural gas), and total dry gas (wet gas adjusted for the removal of liquids at natural gas processing plants). In addition, reserve estimates for two types of natural gas liquids, leasemore » condensate and natural gas plant liquids, are presented. Also included is information on indicated additional crude oil reserves and crude oil, natural gas, and lease condensate reserves in nonproducing reservoirs. A discussion of notable oil and gas exploration and development activities during 1997 is provided. 21 figs., 16 tabs.« less

Application of the multiple PRF technique to resolve Doppler centroid estimation ambiguity for spaceborne SAR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, C. Y.; Curlander, J. C.

1992-01-01

Estimation of the Doppler centroid ambiguity is a necessary element of the signal processing for SAR systems with large antenna pointing errors. Without proper resolution of the Doppler centroid estimation (DCE) ambiguity, the image quality will be degraded in the system impulse response function and the geometric fidelity. Two techniques for resolution of DCE ambiguity for the spaceborne SAR are presented; they include a brief review of the range cross-correlation technique and presentation of a new technique using multiple pulse repetition frequencies (PRFs). For SAR systems, where other performance factors control selection of the PRF's, an algorithm is devised to resolve the ambiguity that uses PRF's of arbitrary numerical values. The performance of this multiple PRF technique is analyzed based on a statistical error model. An example is presented that demonstrates for the Shuttle Imaging Radar-C (SIR-C) C-band SAR, the probability of correct ambiguity resolution is higher than 95 percent for antenna attitude errors as large as 3 deg.

Temperature estimation from molecular nitrogen UV spectra in atmospheric pressure plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pepper, Keenan; Kim, Yongho; Kim, Jihun

2008-11-01

Atmospheric pressure plasmas have many potential applications to fuel processing, surface treatment, and manipulation of chemical reactions. These plasmas are often non-thermal, which means different species are not in equilibrium and have different effective temperatures. This is critical for many applications because it allows high concentrations of reactive species to be produced without using a prohibitive amount of power. In the present work, numerical software was developed to estimate the vibrational and rotational temperatures (Tvib and Trot) of N2 molecules from their ultraviolet emission spectra. The electron temperature Te can also be estimated by comparing the N2 spectrum to that of the N2^+ molecular ion. This technique is applied to several plasma sources including audio frequency, RF, and microwave devices. The results are presented and their implications for practical applications are discussed.

Orbit/attitude estimation with LANDSAT Landmark data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, D. L.; Waligora, S.

1979-01-01

The use of LANDSAT landmark data for orbit/attitude and camera bias estimation was studied. The preliminary results of these investigations are presented. The Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) error analysis capability was used to perform error analysis studies. A number of questions were addressed including parameter observability and sensitivity, effects on the solve-for parameter errors of data span, density, and distribution an a priori covariance weighting. The use of the GTDS differential correction capability with acutal landmark data was examined. The rms line and element observation residuals were studied as a function of the solve-for parameter set, a priori covariance weighting, force model, attitude model and data characteristics. Sample results are presented. Finally, verfication and preliminary system evaluation of the LANDSAT NAVPAK system for sequential (extended Kalman Filter) estimation of orbit, and camera bias parameters is given.

A Simulation Environment for Benchmarking Sensor Fusion-Based Pose Estimators.

PubMed

Ligorio, Gabriele; Sabatini, Angelo Maria

2015-12-19

In-depth analysis and performance evaluation of sensor fusion-based estimators may be critical when performed using real-world sensor data. For this reason, simulation is widely recognized as one of the most powerful tools for algorithm benchmarking. In this paper, we present a simulation framework suitable for assessing the performance of sensor fusion-based pose estimators. The systems used for implementing the framework were magnetic/inertial measurement units (MIMUs) and a camera, although the addition of further sensing modalities is straightforward. Typical nuisance factors were also included for each sensor. The proposed simulation environment was validated using real-life sensor data employed for motion tracking. The higher mismatch between real and simulated sensors was about 5% of the measured quantity (for the camera simulation), whereas a lower correlation was found for an axis of the gyroscope (0.90). In addition, a real benchmarking example of an extended Kalman filter for pose estimation from MIMU and camera data is presented.

Introduction to State Estimation of High-Rate System Dynamics.

PubMed

Hong, Jonathan; Laflamme, Simon; Dodson, Jacob; Joyce, Bryan

2018-01-13

Engineering systems experiencing high-rate dynamic events, including airbags, debris detection, and active blast protection systems, could benefit from real-time observability for enhanced performance. However, the task of high-rate state estimation is challenging, in particular for real-time applications where the rate of the observer's convergence needs to be in the microsecond range. This paper identifies the challenges of state estimation of high-rate systems and discusses the fundamental characteristics of high-rate systems. A survey of applications and methods for estimators that have the potential to produce accurate estimations for a complex system experiencing highly dynamic events is presented. It is argued that adaptive observers are important to this research. In particular, adaptive data-driven observers are advantageous due to their adaptability and lack of dependence on the system model.

Estimation of Faults in DC Electrical Power System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gorinevsky, Dimitry; Boyd, Stephen; Poll, Scott

2009-01-01

This paper demonstrates a novel optimization-based approach to estimating fault states in a DC power system. Potential faults changing the circuit topology are included along with faulty measurements. Our approach can be considered as a relaxation of the mixed estimation problem. We develop a linear model of the circuit and pose a convex problem for estimating the faults and other hidden states. A sparse fault vector solution is computed by using 11 regularization. The solution is computed reliably and efficiently, and gives accurate diagnostics on the faults. We demonstrate a real-time implementation of the approach for an instrumented electrical power system testbed, the ADAPT testbed at NASA ARC. The estimates are computed in milliseconds on a PC. The approach performs well despite unmodeled transients and other modeling uncertainties present in the system.

A tool to estimate the Fermi Large Area Telescope background for short-duration observations

DOE PAGES

Vasileiou, Vlasios

2013-07-25

Here, the proper estimation of the background is a crucial component of data analyses in astrophysics, such as source detection, temporal studies, spectroscopy, and localization. For the case of the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on board the Fermi spacecraft, approaches to estimate the background for short (≲1000 s duration) observations fail if they ignore the strong dependence of the LAT background on the continuously changing observational conditions. We present a (to be) publicly available background-estimation tool created and used by the LAT Collaboration in several analyses of Gamma Ray Bursts. This tool can accurately estimate the expected LAT background formore » any observational conditions, including, for example, observations with rapid variations of the Fermi spacecraft’s orientation occurring during automatic repointings.« less

Shallow Remineralization in the Sargasso Sea Estimated from Seasonal Variations in Oxygen and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ono, S.; Ennyu, A.; Najjar, R. G.; Bates, N.

1998-01-01

A diagnostic model of the mean annual cycles of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and oxygen below the mixed layer at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site is presented and used to estimate organic carbon remineralization in the seasonal thermocline. The model includes lateral and vertical advection as well as vertical, diffusion. Very good agreement is found for the remineralization estimates based on oxygen and DIC. Net remineralization averaged from mid-spring to early fall is found to be a maximum between 120 and 140 in. Remineralization integrated between 100 (the compensation depth) and 250 m during this period is estimated to be about 1 mol C/sq m. This flux is consistent with independent estimates of the loss of particulate and dissolved organic carbon.

Medical care at the Sweetwaters Music Festival.

PubMed

Yates, K M; Hazell, W C; Schweder, L

2001-04-13

To describe medical cover and medical presentations at the four-day 1999 Sweetwaters Music Festival, and make comparisons with other festivals. All medical contacts were counted, and patients presenting to the medical tent were included in the study. Case records were studied to determine demographic data, nature of complaint, treatment and disposition. A Medline literature search was performed to obtain information on other festivals. There were 2,231 medical contacts overall (8.9% of estimated attendees) and 217 presentations to the medical tent (0.9% of estimated attendees). 53% of patients presenting to the medical tent were men and the mean patient age was 25 years. Lacerations (16%), intoxication (13%), local infections (12%) and soft tissue injuries (9%) were the most common problems. There were no deaths or cardiac arrests. Problems encountered were similar to other music festivals, with minor injuries predominant.

STAMMEX high resolution gridded daily precipitation dataset over Germany: a new potential for regional precipitation climate research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolina, Olga; Simmer, Clemens; Kapala, Alice; Mächel, Hermann; Gulev, Sergey; Groisman, Pavel

2014-05-01

We present new high resolution precipitation daily grids developed at Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn and German Weather Service (DWD) under the STAMMEX project (Spatial and Temporal Scales and Mechanisms of Extreme Precipitation Events over Central Europe). Daily precipitation grids have been developed from the daily-observing precipitation network of DWD, which runs one of the World's densest rain gauge networks comprising more than 7500 stations. Several quality-controlled daily gridded products with homogenized sampling were developed covering the periods 1931-onwards (with 0.5 degree resolution), 1951-onwards (0.25 degree and 0.5 degree), and 1971-2000 (0.1 degree). Different methods were tested to select the best gridding methodology that minimizes errors of integral grid estimates over hilly terrain. Besides daily precipitation values with uncertainty estimates (which include standard estimates of the kriging uncertainty as well as error estimates derived by a bootstrapping algorithm), the STAMMEX data sets include a variety of statistics that characterize temporal and spatial dynamics of the precipitation distribution (quantiles, extremes, wet/dry spells, etc.). Comparisons with existing continental-scale daily precipitation grids (e.g., CRU, ECA E-OBS, GCOS) which include considerably less observations compared to those used in STAMMEX, demonstrate the added value of high-resolution grids for extreme rainfall analyses. These data exhibit spatial variability pattern and trends in precipitation extremes, which are missed or incorrectly reproduced over Central Europe from coarser resolution grids based on sparser networks. The STAMMEX dataset can be used for high-quality climate diagnostics of precipitation variability, as a reference for reanalyses and remotely-sensed precipitation products (including the upcoming Global Precipitation Mission products), and for input into regional climate and operational weather forecast models. We will present numerous application of the STAMMEX grids spanning from case studies of the major Central European floods to long-term changes in different precipitation statistics, including those accounting for the alternation of dry and wet periods and precipitation intensities associated with prolonged rainy episodes.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Emphasis on Aircraft Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iliff, K. W.; Maine, R. E.

1985-01-01

Accurate modeling of flexible space structures is an important field that is currently under investigation. Parameter estimation, using methods such as maximum likelihood, is one of the ways that the model can be improved. The maximum likelihood estimator has been used to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data for many years. Most of the literature on aircraft estimation concentrates on new developments and applications, assuming familiarity with basic estimation concepts. Some of these basic concepts are presented. The maximum likelihood estimator and the aircraft equations of motion that the estimator uses are briefly discussed. The basic concepts of minimization and estimation are examined for a simple computed aircraft example. The cost functions that are to be minimized during estimation are defined and discussed. Graphic representations of the cost functions are given to help illustrate the minimization process. Finally, the basic concepts are generalized, and estimation from flight data is discussed. Specific examples of estimation of structural dynamics are included. Some of the major conclusions for the computed example are also developed for the analysis of flight data.

How accurately can we estimate energetic costs in a marine top predator, the king penguin?

PubMed

Halsey, Lewis G; Fahlman, Andreas; Handrich, Yves; Schmidt, Alexander; Woakes, Anthony J; Butler, Patrick J

2007-01-01

King penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) are one of the greatest consumers of marine resources. However, while their influence on the marine ecosystem is likely to be significant, only an accurate knowledge of their energy demands will indicate their true food requirements. Energy consumption has been estimated for many marine species using the heart rate-rate of oxygen consumption (f(H) - V(O2)) technique, and the technique has been applied successfully to answer eco-physiological questions. However, previous studies on the energetics of king penguins, based on developing or applying this technique, have raised a number of issues about the degree of validity of the technique for this species. These include the predictive validity of the present f(H) - V(O2) equations across different seasons and individuals and during different modes of locomotion. In many cases, these issues also apply to other species for which the f(H) - V(O2) technique has been applied. In the present study, the accuracy of three prediction equations for king penguins was investigated based on validity studies and on estimates of V(O2) from published, field f(H) data. The major conclusions from the present study are: (1) in contrast to that for walking, the f(H) - V(O2) relationship for swimming king penguins is not affected by body mass; (2) prediction equation (1), log(V(O2) = -0.279 + 1.24log(f(H) + 0.0237t - 0.0157log(f(H)t, derived in a previous study, is the most suitable equation presently available for estimating V(O2) in king penguins for all locomotory and nutritional states. A number of possible problems associated with producing an f(H) - V(O2) relationship are discussed in the present study. Finally, a statistical method to include easy-to-measure morphometric characteristics, which may improve the accuracy of f(H) - V(O2) prediction equations, is explained.

Natural attenuation software (NAS): Assessing remedial strategies and estimating timeframes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mendez, E.; Widdowson, M.; Chapelle, F.; Casey, C.

2005-01-01

Natural Attenuation Software (NAS) is a screening tool to estimate remediation timeframes for monitored natural attenuation (MNA) and to assist in decision-making on the level of source zone treatment in conjunction with MNA using site-specific remediation objectives. Natural attenuation processes that NAS models include are advection, dispersion, sorption, non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) dissolution, and biodegradation of either petroleum hydrocarbons or chlorinated ethylenes. Newly-implemented enhancements to NAS designed to maximize the utility of NAS for site managers were observed. NAS has expanded source contaminant specification options to include chlorinated ethanes and chlorinated methanes, and to allow for the analysis of any other user-defined contaminants that may be subject to microbially-mediated transformations (heavy metals, radioisotopes, etc.). Included is the capability to model co-mingled plumes, with constituents from multiple contaminant categories. To enable comparison of remediation timeframe estimates between MNA and specific engineered remedial actions , NAS was modified to incorporate an estimation technique for timeframes associated with pump-and-treat remediation technology for comparison to MNA. This is an abstract of a paper presented at the 8th International In Situ and On-Site Bioremediation Symposium (Baltimore, MD 6/6-9/2005).

Magnetometer-only attitude and angular velocity filtering estimation for attitude changing spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Hongliang; Xu, Shijie

2014-09-01

This paper presents an improved real-time sequential filter (IRTSF) for magnetometer-only attitude and angular velocity estimation of spacecraft during its attitude changing (including fast and large angular attitude maneuver, rapidly spinning or uncontrolled tumble). In this new magnetometer-only attitude determination technique, both attitude dynamics equation and first time derivative of measured magnetic field vector are directly leaded into filtering equations based on the traditional single vector attitude determination method of gyroless and real-time sequential filter (RTSF) of magnetometer-only attitude estimation. The process noise model of IRTSF includes attitude kinematics and dynamics equations, and its measurement model consists of magnetic field vector and its first time derivative. The observability of IRTSF for small or large angular velocity changing spacecraft is evaluated by an improved Lie-Differentiation, and the degrees of observability of IRTSF for different initial estimation errors are analyzed by the condition number and a solved covariance matrix. Numerical simulation results indicate that: (1) the attitude and angular velocity of spacecraft can be estimated with sufficient accuracy using IRTSF from magnetometer-only data; (2) compared with that of RTSF, the estimation accuracies and observability degrees of attitude and angular velocity using IRTSF from magnetometer-only data are both improved; and (3) universality: the IRTSF of magnetometer-only attitude and angular velocity estimation is observable for any different initial state estimation error vector.

Organochlorines in urban soils from Central India: probabilistic health hazard and risk implications to human population.

PubMed

Kumar, Bhupander; Mishra, Meenu; Verma, V K; Rai, Premanjali; Kumar, Sanjay

2018-04-21

This study presents distribution of organochlorines (OCs) including HCH, DDT and PCBs in urban soils, and their environmental and human health risk. Forty-eight soil samples were extracted using ultrasonication, cleaned with modified silica gel chromatography and analyzed by GC-ECD. The observed concentrations of ∑HCH, ∑DDT and ∑PCBs in soils ranged between < 0.01-2.54, 1.30-27.41 and < 0.01-62.8 µg kg -1 , respectively, which were lower than the recommended soil quality guidelines. Human health risk was estimated following recommended guidelines. Lifetime average daily dose (LADD), non-cancer risk or hazard quotient (HQ) and incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) for humans due to individual and total OCs were estimated and presented. Estimated LADD were lower than acceptable daily intake and reference dose. Human health risk estimates were lower than safe limit of non-cancer risk (HQ < 1.0) and the acceptable distribution range of ILCR (10 -6 -10 -4 ). Therefore, this study concluded that present levels of OCs (HCH, DDT and PCBs) in studied soils were low, and subsequently posed low health risk to human population in the study area.

A stochastic estimation procedure for intermittently-observed semi-Markov multistate models with back transitions.

PubMed

Aralis, Hilary; Brookmeyer, Ron

2017-01-01

Multistate models provide an important method for analyzing a wide range of life history processes including disease progression and patient recovery following medical intervention. Panel data consisting of the states occupied by an individual at a series of discrete time points are often used to estimate transition intensities of the underlying continuous-time process. When transition intensities depend on the time elapsed in the current state and back transitions between states are possible, this intermittent observation process presents difficulties in estimation due to intractability of the likelihood function. In this manuscript, we present an iterative stochastic expectation-maximization algorithm that relies on a simulation-based approximation to the likelihood function and implement this algorithm using rejection sampling. In a simulation study, we demonstrate the feasibility and performance of the proposed procedure. We then demonstrate application of the algorithm to a study of dementia, the Nun Study, consisting of intermittently-observed elderly subjects in one of four possible states corresponding to intact cognition, impaired cognition, dementia, and death. We show that the proposed stochastic expectation-maximization algorithm substantially reduces bias in model parameter estimates compared to an alternative approach used in the literature, minimal path estimation. We conclude that in estimating intermittently observed semi-Markov models, the proposed approach is a computationally feasible and accurate estimation procedure that leads to substantial improvements in back transition estimates.

Numeric Estimates of Teratogenic Severity from Embryo-Fetal Developmental Toxicity Studies.

PubMed

Wise, L David

2016-02-01

A developing organism exposed to a toxicant will have a response that ranges from none to severe (i.e., death or malformation). The response at a given dosage may be termed teratogenic (or developmental toxic) severity and is dependent on exposure conditions. Prenatal/embryo-fetal developmental (EFD) toxicity studies in rodents and rabbits are the most consistent and definitive assessments of teratogenic severity, and teratogenesis screening assays are best validated against their results. A formula is presented that estimates teratogenic severity for each group, including control, within an EFD study. The developmental components include embryonic/fetal death, malformations, variations, and mean fetal weight. The contribution of maternal toxicity is included with multiplication factors to adjust for the extent of mortality, maternal body weight change, and other parameters deemed important. The derivation of the formula to calculate teratogenic severity is described. Various EFD data sets from the literature are presented to highlight considerations to the calculation of the various components of the formula. Each score is compared to the concurrent control group to obtain a relative teratogenic severity. The limited studies presented suggest relative scores of two- to

Reconstruction of Absorbed Doses to Fibroglandular Tissue of the Breast of Women undergoing Mammography (1960 to the Present)

PubMed Central

Thierry-Chef, Isabelle; Simon, Steven L.; Weinstock, Robert M.; Kwon, Deukwoo; Linet, Martha S.

2013-01-01

The assessment of potential benefits versus harms from mammographic examinations as described in the controversial breast cancer screening recommendations of the U.S. Preventive Task Force included limited consideration of absorbed dose to the fibroglandular tissue of the breast (glandular tissue dose), the tissue at risk for breast cancer. Epidemiological studies on cancer risks associated with diagnostic radiological examinations often lack accurate information on glandular tissue dose, and there is a clear need for better estimates of these doses. Our objective was to develop a quantitative summary of glandular tissue doses from mammography by considering sources of variation over time in key parameters including imaging protocols, x-ray target materials, voltage, filtration, incident air kerma, compressed breast thickness, and breast composition. We estimated the minimum, maximum, and mean values for glandular tissue dose for populations of exposed women within 5-year periods from 1960 to the present, with the minimum to maximum range likely including 90% to 95% of the entirety of the dose range from mammography in North America and Europe. Glandular tissue dose from a single view in mammography is presently about 2 mGy, about one-sixth the dose in the 1960s. The ratio of our estimates of maximum to minimum glandular tissue doses for average-size breasts was about 100 in the 1960s compared to a ratio of about 5 in recent years. Findings from our analysis provide quantitative information on glandular tissue doses from mammographic examinations which can be used in epidemiologic studies of breast cancer. PMID:21988547

Inhibition by ultraviolet and photosynthetically available radiation lowers model estimates of depth-integrated picophytoplankton photosynthesis: global predictions for Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus.

PubMed

Neale, Patrick J; Thomas, Brian C

2017-01-01

Phytoplankton photosynthesis is often inhibited by ultraviolet (UV) and intense photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), but the effects on ocean productivity have received little consideration aside from polar areas subject to periodic enhanced UV-B due to depletion of stratospheric ozone. A more comprehensive assessment is important for understanding the contribution of phytoplankton production to the global carbon budget, present and future. Here, we consider responses in the temperate and tropical mid-ocean regions typically dominated by picophytoplankton including the prokaryotic lineages, Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus. Spectral models of photosynthetic response for each lineage were constructed using model strains cultured at different growth irradiances and temperatures. In the model, inhibition becomes more severe once exposure exceeds a threshold (E max ) related to repair capacity. Model parameters are presented for Prochlorococcus adding to those previously presented for Synechococcus. The models were applied to estimate midday, water column photosynthesis based on an atmospheric model of spectral radiation, satellite-derived spectral water transparency and temperature. Based on a global survey of inhibitory exposure severity, a full-latitude section of the mid-Pacific and near-equatorial region of the east Pacific were identified as representative regions for prediction of responses over the entire water column. Comparing predictions integrated over the water column including versus excluding inhibition, production was 7-28% lower due to inhibition depending on strain and site conditions. Inhibition was consistently greater for Prochlorococcus compared to two strains of Synechococcus. Considering only the surface mixed layer, production was inhibited 7-73%. On average, including inhibition lowered estimates of midday productivity around 20% for the modeled region of the Pacific with UV accounting for two-thirds of the reduction. In contrast, most other productivity models either ignore inhibition or only include PAR inhibition. Incorporation of E max model responses into an existing spectral model of depth-integrated, daily production will enable efficient global predictions of picophytoplankton productivity including inhibition. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The woody biomass resource of East Oklahoma, 1993

Treesearch

James F. Rosson

1993-01-01

Tables are presented for fresh and dry biomass estimates of major trees in east Oklahoma by forest type, ownership, species, stand basal area, tree class, diameter, and height. Information for total tree, stem, and crown components is included.

Epidemiology of Mental Retardation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heber, Rick

Prevalence data on mental retardation is presented including international estimates on general prevalence, age directions, geographical variations within the United States, racial and ethnic variations, economic class distributions, family variations, and population distribution in institutions. Statistics are also provided in areas of specific…

Illicit and pharmaceutical drug consumption estimated via wastewater analysis. Part A: chemical analysis and drug use estimates.

PubMed

Baker, David R; Barron, Leon; Kasprzyk-Hordern, Barbara

2014-07-15

This paper presents, for the first time, community-wide estimation of drug and pharmaceuticals consumption in England using wastewater analysis and a large number of compounds. Among groups of compounds studied were: stimulants, hallucinogens and their metabolites, opioids, morphine derivatives, benzodiazepines, antidepressants and others. Obtained results showed the usefulness of wastewater analysis in order to provide estimates of local community drug consumption. It is noticeable that where target compounds could be compared to NHS prescription statistics, good comparisons were apparent between the two sets of data. These compounds include oxycodone, dihydrocodeine, methadone, tramadol, temazepam and diazepam. Whereas, discrepancies were observed for propoxyphene, codeine, dosulepin and venlafaxine (over-estimations in each case except codeine). Potential reasons for discrepancies include: sales of drugs sold without prescription and not included within NHS data, abuse of a drug with the compound trafficked through illegal sources, different consumption patterns in different areas, direct disposal leading to over estimations when using parent compound as the drug target residue and excretion factors not being representative of the local community. It is noticeable that using a metabolite (and not a parent drug) as a biomarker leads to higher certainty of obtained estimates. With regard to illicit drugs, consistent and logical results were reported. Monitoring of these compounds over a one week period highlighted the expected recreational use of many of these drugs (e.g. cocaine and MDMA) and the more consistent use of others (e.g. methadone). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Body mass estimates of hominin fossils and the evolution of human body size.

PubMed

Grabowski, Mark; Hatala, Kevin G; Jungers, William L; Richmond, Brian G

2015-08-01

Body size directly influences an animal's place in the natural world, including its energy requirements, home range size, relative brain size, locomotion, diet, life history, and behavior. Thus, an understanding of the biology of extinct organisms, including species in our own lineage, requires accurate estimates of body size. Since the last major review of hominin body size based on postcranial morphology over 20 years ago, new fossils have been discovered, species attributions have been clarified, and methods improved. Here, we present the most comprehensive and thoroughly vetted set of individual fossil hominin body mass predictions to date, and estimation equations based on a large (n = 220) sample of modern humans of known body masses. We also present species averages based exclusively on fossils with reliable taxonomic attributions, estimates of species averages by sex, and a metric for levels of sexual dimorphism. Finally, we identify individual traits that appear to be the most reliable for mass estimation for each fossil species, for use when only one measurement is available for a fossil. Our results show that many early hominins were generally smaller-bodied than previously thought, an outcome likely due to larger estimates in previous studies resulting from the use of large-bodied modern human reference samples. Current evidence indicates that modern human-like large size first appeared by at least 3-3.5 Ma in some Australopithecus afarensis individuals. Our results challenge an evolutionary model arguing that body size increased from Australopithecus to early Homo. Instead, we show that there is no reliable evidence that the body size of non-erectus early Homo differed from that of australopiths, and confirm that Homo erectus evolved larger average body size than earlier hominins. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Galactic cosmic ray radiation levels in spacecraft on interplanetary missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shinn, J. L.; Nealy, J. E.; Townsend, L. W.; Wilson, J. W.; Wood, J.S.

1994-01-01

Using the Langley Research Center Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) transport computer code (HZETRN) and the Computerized Anatomical Man (CAM) model, crew radiation levels inside manned spacecraft on interplanetary missions are estimated. These radiation-level estimates include particle fluxes, LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra, absorbed dose, and dose equivalent within various organs of interest in GCR protection studies. Changes in these radiation levels resulting from the use of various different types of shield materials are presented.

Energy efficient engine: Propulsion system-aircraft integration evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Owens, R. E.

1979-01-01

Flight performance and operating economics of future commercial transports utilizing the energy efficient engine were assessed as well as the probability of meeting NASA's goals for TSFC, DOC, noise, and emissions. Results of the initial propulsion systems aircraft integration evaluation presented include estimates of engine performance, predictions of fuel burns, operating costs of the flight propulsion system installed in seven selected advanced study commercial transports, estimates of noise and emissions, considerations of thrust growth, and the achievement-probability analysis.

State energy price and expenditure report 1993

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-12-01

The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates individually for the 50 states and the District of Columbia and in aggregate for the US. The five economic sectors used in SEPER correspond to those used in SEDR and are residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility. Documentation in appendices describe how the price estimates are developed, provide conversion factors for measures used in the energy analysis, and include a glossary. 65 tabs.

Estimated freshwater withdrawals in Texas, 1990

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lurry, Dee L.

1994-01-01

This report presents 1990 freshwater withdrawal estimates for Texas by source and category. Withdrawal source is either ground water or surface water. Withdrawal categories include: self-supplied irrigation, thermoelectric-power generation, water supply, industrial and mining, and other (domestic, commercial, livestock). Withdrawal data are aggregated by county, major aquifer, and principal river basin. Only the four major categories of irrigation, thermoelectric-power generation, water supply, and industrial and mining are illustrated in this report, although all data are tabulated.

An estimator for the standard deviation of a natural frequency. I.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schiff, A. J.; Bogdanoff, J. L.

1971-01-01

A brief review of mean-square approximate systems is given. The case in which the masses are deterministic is considered first in the derivation of an estimator for the upper bound of the standard deviation of a natural frequency. Two examples presented include a two-degree-of-freedom system and a case in which the disorder in the springs is perfectly correlated. For purposes of comparison, a Monte Carlo simulation was done on a digital computer.

Gene expression during blow fly development: improving the precision of age estimates in forensic entomology.

PubMed

Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

2011-01-01

Forensic entomologists use size and developmental stage to estimate blow fly age, and from those, a postmortem interval. Since such estimates are generally accurate but often lack precision, particularly in the older developmental stages, alternative aging methods would be advantageous. Presented here is a means of incorporating developmentally regulated gene expression levels into traditional stage and size data, with a goal of more precisely estimating developmental age of immature Lucilia sericata. Generalized additive models of development showed improved statistical support compared to models that did not include gene expression data, resulting in an increase in estimate precision, especially for postfeeding third instars and pupae. The models were then used to make blind estimates of development for 86 immature L. sericata raised on rat carcasses. Overall, inclusion of gene expression data resulted in increased precision in aging blow flies. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

SBML-PET: a Systems Biology Markup Language-based parameter estimation tool.

PubMed

Zi, Zhike; Klipp, Edda

2006-11-01

The estimation of model parameters from experimental data remains a bottleneck for a major breakthrough in systems biology. We present a Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) based Parameter Estimation Tool (SBML-PET). The tool is designed to enable parameter estimation for biological models including signaling pathways, gene regulation networks and metabolic pathways. SBML-PET supports import and export of the models in the SBML format. It can estimate the parameters by fitting a variety of experimental data from different experimental conditions. SBML-PET has a unique feature of supporting event definition in the SMBL model. SBML models can also be simulated in SBML-PET. Stochastic Ranking Evolution Strategy (SRES) is incorporated in SBML-PET for parameter estimation jobs. A classic ODE Solver called ODEPACK is used to solve the Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) system. http://sysbio.molgen.mpg.de/SBML-PET/. The website also contains detailed documentation for SBML-PET.

Multifidelity Analysis and Optimization for Supersonic Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kroo, Ilan; Willcox, Karen; March, Andrew; Haas, Alex; Rajnarayan, Dev; Kays, Cory

2010-01-01

Supersonic aircraft design is a computationally expensive optimization problem and multifidelity approaches over a significant opportunity to reduce design time and computational cost. This report presents tools developed to improve supersonic aircraft design capabilities including: aerodynamic tools for supersonic aircraft configurations; a systematic way to manage model uncertainty; and multifidelity model management concepts that incorporate uncertainty. The aerodynamic analysis tools developed are appropriate for use in a multifidelity optimization framework, and include four analysis routines to estimate the lift and drag of a supersonic airfoil, a multifidelity supersonic drag code that estimates the drag of aircraft configurations with three different methods: an area rule method, a panel method, and an Euler solver. In addition, five multifidelity optimization methods are developed, which include local and global methods as well as gradient-based and gradient-free techniques.

No brain expansion in Australopithecus boisei.

PubMed

Hawks, John

2011-10-01

The endocranial volumes of robust australopithecine fossils appear to have increased in size over time. Most evidence with temporal resolution is concentrated in East African Australopithecus boisei. Including the KNM-WT 17000 cranium, this sample comprises 11 endocranial volume estimates ranging in date from 2.5 million to 1.4 million years ago. But the sample presents several difficulties to a test of trend, including substantial estimation error for some specimens and an unusually low variance. This study reevaluates the evidence, using randomization methods and a related test using an explicit model of variability. None of these tests applied to the A. boisei endocranial volume sample produces significant evidence for a trend in that species, whether or not the early KNM-WT 17000 specimen is included. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The GIANT Encyclopedia of Science Activities for Children 3 to 6: More Than 600 Science Activities Written by Teachers for Teachers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Charner, Kathy, Ed.

This book presents science activities developed by teachers for children ages 3-6 years old. The activities aim to develop science skills including communication, observation, estimation, measurement, cause and effect, investigation, and evaluation in children by using their curiosity as a staring point. Activities include age suggestions, address…

A reference solar spectral irradiance for use in atmospheric modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

The present state of knowledge concerning the absolute magnitude and temporal variability of the solar spectral irradiance is outlined with emphasis on wavelengths relevant to the mesosphere and stratosphere. Reference spectra for the wavelength region 175 to 850 nm are presented including estimates for solar maximum and solar minimum conditions. Values for the Lyman alpha emission are given separately.

Intelligent Command and Control Demonstration Setup and Presentation Instructions

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-01

and Control Demonstration Setup and Presentation Instructions by Laurel C Sadler and Somiya Metu Computational and Information Sciences...0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing...instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection information . Send

Schools and Staffing Survey: 1994. Papers Presented at the 1994 Meeting of the American Statistical Association. Working Paper Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center for Education Statistics (ED), Washington, DC.

The 14 papers presented in this proceedings include: (1) "Intersurvey Consistency in School Surveys" (Wray Smith, Al Holt, Steven Kaufman, and Fritz Scheuren); (2) "Estimation Issues Related to the Student Component of the SASS" (Karen Ellen King and Steven Kaufman); (3) "Properties of the Schools and Staffing Survey's…

Update to An Inventory of Sources and Environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In 2006, EPA published an inventory of sources and environmental releases of dioxin-like compounds in the United States. This draft report presents an update and revision to that dioxin source inventory. It also presents updated estimates of environmental releases of dioxin-like compounds to the air, water, land and products. The sources are grouped into five broad categories: combustion sources, metals smelting/refining, chemical manufacturing, natural sources, and environmental reservoirs. Estimates of annual releases to land, air, and water are presented for reference years 1987, 1995, and 2000. While the overall decreasing trend in emissions seen in the original report continues, the individual dioxin releases in this draft updated report are generally higher than the values reported in 2006. This is largely due to the inclusion (in all three years) of additional sources in the quantitative inventory that were not included in the 2006 report. The largest new source included in this draft updated inventory was forest fires. In the 2006 report, this was classified as preliminary and not included in the quantitative inventory. The top three air sources of dioxin emissions in 2000 were forest fires, backyard burning of trash, and medical waste incinerators. The Report Presents An Update To The Dioxin Source Inventory Published In 2006 (U.S. Epa, 2006). The Peer-Review Panel For The 2006 Document Provided Additional Comments After The Final Report Had

Decision rules for unbiased inventory estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Argentiero, P. D.; Koch, D.

1979-01-01

An efficient and accurate procedure for estimating inventories from remote sensing scenes is presented. In place of the conventional and expensive full dimensional Bayes decision rule, a one-dimensional feature extraction and classification technique was employed. It is shown that this efficient decision rule can be used to develop unbiased inventory estimates and that for large sample sizes typical of satellite derived remote sensing scenes, resulting accuracies are comparable or superior to more expensive alternative procedures. Mathematical details of the procedure are provided in the body of the report and in the appendix. Results of a numerical simulation of the technique using statistics obtained from an observed LANDSAT scene are included. The simulation demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique in computing accurate inventory estimates.

State estimation improves prospects for ocean research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stammer, Detlef; Wunsch, C.; Fukumori, I.; Marshall, J.

Rigorous global ocean state estimation methods can now be used to produce dynamically consistent time-varying model/data syntheses, the results of which are being used to study a variety of important scientific problems. Figure 1 shows a schematic of a complete ocean observing and synthesis system that includes global observations and state-of-the-art ocean general circulation models (OGCM) run on modern computer platforms. A global observing system is described in detail in Smith and Koblinsky [2001],and the present status of ocean modeling and anticipated improvements are addressed by Griffies et al. [2001]. Here, the focus is on the third component of state estimation: the synthesis of the observations and a model into a unified, dynamically consistent estimate.

Development of a digital automatic control law for steep glideslope capture and flare

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halyo, N.

1977-01-01

A longitudinal digital guidance and control law for steep glideslopes using MLS (Microwave Landing System) data is developed for CTOL aircraft using modern estimation and control techniques. The control law covers the final approach phases of glideslope capture, glideslope tracking, and flare to touchdown for automatic landings under adverse weather conditions. The control law uses a constant gain Kalman filter to process MLS and body-mounted accelerometer data to form estimates of flight path errors and wind velocities including wind shear. The flight path error estimates and wind estimates are used for feedback in generating control surface commands. Results of a digital simulation of the aircraft dynamics and the guidance and control law are presented for various wind conditions.

Estimating Rooftop Suitability for PV: A Review of Methods, Patents, and Validation Techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melius, J.; Margolis, R.; Ong, S.

2013-12-01

A number of methods have been developed using remote sensing data to estimate rooftop area suitable for the installation of photovoltaics (PV) at various geospatial resolutions. This report reviews the literature and patents on methods for estimating rooftop-area appropriate for PV, including constant-value methods, manual selection methods, and GIS-based methods. This report also presents NREL's proposed method for estimating suitable rooftop area for PV using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data in conjunction with a GIS model to predict areas with appropriate slope, orientation, and sunlight. NREL's method is validated against solar installation data from New Jersey, Colorado, and Californiamore » to compare modeled results to actual on-the-ground measurements.« less

TRAN-STAT: statistics for environmental transuranic studies, July 1978, Number 5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

This issue is concerned with nonparametric procedures for (1) estimating the central tendency of a population, (2) describing data sets through estimating percentiles, (3) estimating confidence limits for the median and other percentiles, (4) estimating tolerance limits and associated numbers of samples, and (5) tests of significance and associated procedures for a variety of testing situations (counterparts to t-tests and analysis of variance). Some characteristics of several nonparametric tests are illustrated using the NAEG /sup 241/Am aliquot data presented and discussed in the April issue of TRAN-STAT. Some of the statistical terms used here are defined in a glossary. Themore » reference list also includes short descriptions of nonparametric books. 31 references, 3 figures, 1 table.« less

Towards Estimate of Present Day Ice Melting in Polar Regions From Altimetry, Gravity, Ocean Bottom Pressure and GPS Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Y.; Wu, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Munneke, P. K.; Simonsen, S. B.; van der Wal, W.; Vermeersen, B. L.

2013-12-01

The ice sheet in Polar Regions stores the largest freshwater bodies on Earth, sufficient to elevate global sea level by more than 65 meters if melted. The earth may have entered an intensive ice-melting episode, possibly due to anthropogenic global warming rather than natural orbit variations. Determining present-day ice mass balance, however, is complicated by the fact that most observations contain both present day ice melting signal and residual signals from past glacier melting. Despite decades of progress in geodynamic modeling and new observations, significant uncertainties remain in both. The key to separate present-day ice mass change and signals from past melting is to include data of different physical characteristics. We conducted a new global kinematic inversion scheme to estimate both present-day ice melting and past glacier signatures simultaneously and assess their contribution to current and future global mean sea level change. Our approach is designed to invert and separate present-day melting signal in the spherical harmonic domain using a globally distributed interdisciplinary data with distinct physical information. Interesting results with unprecedented precisions have been achieved so far. We will present our results of the estimated present-day ice mass balance trend in both Greenland and Antarctica ice sheet as well as other regions where significant mass change occurs.

Injuries and their burden in insured construction workers in Iran, 2012.

PubMed

Hatami, Seyed Esmaeil; Khanjani, Narges; Alavinia, Seyed Mohammad; Ravandi, Mohammad Reza Ghotbi

2017-03-01

The present study used disability adjusted life years (DALY) to estimate the burden of external cause of injuries in construction workers insured in Iran in 2012. The Global Burden of Disease method (2010) was used to estimate the years of life lost due to death (YLL) and years of life lost due to disability (YLD). DALY was calculated as the sum of YLL and YLD. There were 5352 injured construction workers in Iran (11.25 individuals per 1000). Falling was the most common incidence and included 2490 individuals (46.53%). Totally, DALY was estimated 18,557 years for all age groups and both genders including 17,821 YLD (96%) and 736 YLL (4%). The DALY related to construction work is high in Iran and it has notably affected the young. Hence more preventive methods should be applied to reduce the overall burden of specific external cause of injuries especially in young and inexperienced workers.

Identification and Inference for Econometric Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, Donald W. K.; Stock, James H.

2005-07-01

This volume contains the papers presented in honor of the lifelong achievements of Thomas J. Rothenberg on the occasion of his retirement. The authors of the chapters include many of the leading econometricians of our day, and the chapters address topics of current research significance in econometric theory. The chapters cover four themes: identification and efficient estimation in econometrics, asymptotic approximations to the distributions of econometric estimators and tests, inference involving potentially nonstationary time series, such as processes that might have a unit autoregressive root, and nonparametric and semiparametric inference. Several of the chapters provide overviews and treatments of basic conceptual issues, while others advance our understanding of the properties of existing econometric procedures and/or propose new ones. Specific topics include identification in nonlinear models, inference with weak instruments, tests for nonstationary in time series and panel data, generalized empirical likelihood estimation, and the bootstrap.

Definition and preliminary design of the Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) phase 1. Volume 3: Program cost estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

Cost estimates for phase C/D of the laser atmospheric wind sounder (LAWS) program are presented. This information provides a framework for cost, budget, and program planning estimates for LAWS. Volume 3 is divided into three sections. Section 1 details the approach taken to produce the cost figures, including the assumptions regarding the schedule for phase C/D and the methodology and rationale for costing the various work breakdown structure (WBS) elements. Section 2 shows a breakdown of the cost by WBS element, with the cost divided in non-recurring and recurring expenditures. Note that throughout this volume the cost is given in 1990 dollars, with bottom line totals also expressed in 1988 dollars (1 dollar(88) = 0.93 1 dollar(90)). Section 3 shows a breakdown of the cost by year. The WBS and WBS dictionary are included as an attachment to this report.

Study of design constraints on helicopter noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sternfeld, H., Jr.; Wiedersum, C. W.

1979-01-01

A means of estimating the noise generated by a helicopter main rotor using information which is generally available during the preliminary design phase of aircraft development is presented. The method utilizes design charts and tables which do not require an understanding of acoustical theory or computational procedures in order to predict the perceived noise level, a weighted sound pressure level, or C weighted sound pressure level of a single hovering rotor. A method for estimating the effective perceived noise level in forward flight is also included. In order to give the designer an assessment of the relative rotor performance, which may be traded off against noise, an additional chart for estimating the percent of available rotor thrust which must be expended in lifting the rotor and drive system, is included as well as approach for comparing the subjective acceptability of various rotors once the absolute sound pressure levels are predicted.

Predicted cubic-foot yields of sawmill products for black cherry trees

Treesearch

Leland F. Hanks

1980-01-01

Equations and tables for estimating the cubic-foot volumes of lumber, sawdust, and sawmill residue for black cherry trees are presented. Also included are cubic-foot and board-foot predictions for the sawlog portion of the trees.

Mathematics at the Mall.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fennell, Francis (Skip)

1998-01-01

Presents two activities involving number sense in and around the shopping mall. Activities include estimation, measurement, and applications using percent. Concludes that it is appropriate to help students visualize numbers, particularly large numbers, in a context that is familiar and will be constantly reinforced. (ASK)

Estimating future flood frequency and magnitude in basins affected by glacier wastage.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-03-01

We present field measurements of meteorology, hydrology and glaciers and long-term modeled projections of glacier mass balance and : stream flow informed by downscaled climate simulations. The study basins include Valdez Glacier Stream (342 km2 : ), ...

Intra-annual patterns in adult band-tailed pigeon survival estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.; Overton, Cory T.; Howe, Kristy H.

2015-01-01

Implications: We present the first inter-seasonal analysis of survival probability of the Pacific coast race of band-tailed pigeons and illustrate important temporal patterns that may influence future species management including harvest strategies and disease monitoring.

Valuing river characteristics using combined site choice and participation travel cost models.

PubMed

Johnstone, C; Markandya, A

2006-08-01

This paper presents new welfare measures for marginal changes in river quality in selected English rivers. The river quality indicators used include chemical, biological and habitat-level attributes. Economic values for recreational use of three types of river-upland, lowland and chalk-are presented. A survey of anglers was carried out and using these data, two travel cost models were estimated, one to predict the numbers of trips and the other to predict angling site choice. These models were then linked to estimate the welfare associated with marginal changes in river quality using the participation levels as estimated in the trip prediction model. The model results showed that higher flow rates, biological quality and nutrient pollution levels affect site choice and influence the likelihood of a fishing trip. Consumer surplus values per trip for a 10% change in river attributes range from pound 0.04 to pound 3.93 ( pound 2001) depending on the attribute.

Estimates of Terms in Ohm's Law During an Encounter with an Electron Diffusion Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Torbert, R. B.; Burch, J. L.; Giles, B. L.; Gershman, D.; Pollock, C. J.; Dorelli, J.; Avanov, L. A.; Argall, M.; Shuster, J.; Strangeway, R.;

An analysis of simulated and observed storm characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benestad, R. E.

2010-09-01

A calculus-based cyclone identification (CCI) method has been applied to the most recent re-analysis (ERAINT) from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts and results from regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The storm frequency for events with central pressure below a threshold value of 960-990hPa were examined, and the gradient wind from the simulated storm systems were compared with corresponding estimates from the re-analysis. The analysis also yielded estimates for the spatial extent of the storm systems, which was also included in the regional climate model cyclone evaluation. A comparison is presented between a number of RCMs and the ERAINT re-analysis in terms of their description of the gradient winds, number of cyclones, and spatial extent. Furthermore, a comparison between geostrophic wind estimated though triangules of interpolated or station measurements of SLP is presented. Wind still represents one of the more challenging variables to model realistically.

Analysis and Assessment of Peak Lightning Current Probabilities at the NASA Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, D. L.; Vaughan, W. W.

1999-01-01

This technical memorandum presents a summary by the Electromagnetics and Aerospace Environments Branch at the Marshall Space Flight Center of lightning characteristics and lightning criteria for the protection of aerospace vehicles. Probability estimates are included for certain lightning strikes (peak currents of 200, 100, and 50 kA) applicable to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Space Shuttle at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida, during rollout, on-pad, and boost/launch phases. Results of an extensive literature search to compile information on this subject are presented in order to answer key questions posed by the Space Shuttle Program Office at the Johnson Space Center concerning peak lightning current probabilities if a vehicle is hit by a lightning cloud-to-ground stroke. Vehicle-triggered lightning probability estimates for the aforementioned peak currents are still being worked. Section 4.5, however, does provide some insight on estimating these same peaks.

Estimation of object motion parameters from noisy images.

PubMed

Broida, T J; Chellappa, R

1986-01-01

An approach is presented for the estimation of object motion parameters based on a sequence of noisy images. The problem considered is that of a rigid body undergoing unknown rotational and translational motion. The measurement data consists of a sequence of noisy image coordinates of two or more object correspondence points. By modeling the object dynamics as a function of time, estimates of the model parameters (including motion parameters) can be extracted from the data using recursive and/or batch techniques. This permits a desired degree of smoothing to be achieved through the use of an arbitrarily large number of images. Some assumptions regarding object structure are presently made. Results are presented for a recursive estimation procedure: the case considered here is that of a sequence of one dimensional images of a two dimensional object. Thus, the object moves in one transverse dimension, and in depth, preserving the fundamental ambiguity of the central projection image model (loss of depth information). An iterated extended Kalman filter is used for the recursive solution. Noise levels of 5-10 percent of the object image size are used. Approximate Cramer-Rao lower bounds are derived for the model parameter estimates as a function of object trajectory and noise level. This approach may be of use in situations where it is difficult to resolve large numbers of object match points, but relatively long sequences of images (10 to 20 or more) are available.

US crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves 1996 annual report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1997-12-01

The EIA annual reserves report series is the only source of comprehensive domestic proved reserves estimates. This publication is used by the Congress, Federal and State agencies, industry, and other interested parties to obtain accurate estimates of the Nation`s proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. These data are essential to the development, implementation, and evaluation of energy policy and legislation. This report presents estimates of proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids as of December 31, 1996, as well as production volumes for the US and selected States and State subdivisionsmore » for the year 1996. Estimates are presented for the following four categories of natural gas: total gas (wet after lease separation), nonassociated gas and associated-dissolved gas (which are the two major types of wet natural gas), and total dry gas (wet gas adjusted for the removal of liquids at natural gas processing plants). In addition, reserve estimates for two types of natural gas liquids, lease condensate and natural gas plant liquids, are presented. Also included is information on indicated additional crude oil reserves and crude oil, natural gas, and lease condensate reserves in nonproducing reservoirs. A discussion of notable oil and gas exploration and development activities during 1996 is provided. 21 figs., 16 tabs.« less

Introduction to State Estimation of High-Rate System Dynamics

PubMed Central

Dodson, Jacob; Joyce, Bryan

2018-01-01

Engineering systems experiencing high-rate dynamic events, including airbags, debris detection, and active blast protection systems, could benefit from real-time observability for enhanced performance. However, the task of high-rate state estimation is challenging, in particular for real-time applications where the rate of the observer’s convergence needs to be in the microsecond range. This paper identifies the challenges of state estimation of high-rate systems and discusses the fundamental characteristics of high-rate systems. A survey of applications and methods for estimators that have the potential to produce accurate estimations for a complex system experiencing highly dynamic events is presented. It is argued that adaptive observers are important to this research. In particular, adaptive data-driven observers are advantageous due to their adaptability and lack of dependence on the system model. PMID:29342855

Manned Mars mission cost estimate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamaker, Joseph; Smith, Keith

1986-01-01

The potential costs of several options of a manned Mars mission are examined. A cost estimating methodology based primarily on existing Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) parametric cost models is summarized. These models include the MSFC Space Station Cost Model and the MSFC Launch Vehicle Cost Model as well as other modes and techniques. The ground rules and assumptions of the cost estimating methodology are discussed and cost estimates presented for six potential mission options which were studied. The estimated manned Mars mission costs are compared to the cost of the somewhat analogous Apollo Program cost after normalizing the Apollo cost to the environment and ground rules of the manned Mars missions. It is concluded that a manned Mars mission, as currently defined, could be accomplished for under $30 billion in 1985 dollars excluding launch vehicle development and mission operations.

Estimating respiratory rate from FBG optical sensors by using signal quality measurement.

PubMed

Yongwei Zhu; Maniyeri, Jayachandran; Fook, Victor Foo Siang; Haihong Zhang

2015-08-01

Non-intrusiveness is one of the advantages of in-bed optical sensor device for monitoring vital signs, including heart rate and respiratory rate. Estimating respiratory rate reliably using such sensors, however, is challenging, due to body movement, signal variation according to different subjects or body positions, etc. This paper presents a method for reliable respiratory rate estimation for FBG optical sensors by introducing signal quality estimation. The method estimates the quality of the signal waveform by detecting regularly repetitive patterns using proposed spectrum and cepstrum analysis. Multiple window sizes are used to cater for a wide range of target respiratory rates. Furthermore, the readings of multiple sensors are fused to derive a final respiratory rate. Experiments with 12 subjects and 2 body positions were conducted using polysomnography belt signal as groundtruth. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of the method.

An analysis of lateral stability in power-off flight with charts for use in design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zimmerman, Charles H

1937-01-01

The aerodynamic and mass factors governing lateral stability are discussed and formulas are given for their estimation. Relatively simple relationships between the governing factors and the resulting stability characteristics are presented. A series of charts is included with which approximate stability characteristics may be rapidly estimated. The effects of the various governing factors upon the stability characteristics are discussed in detail. It is pointed out that much additional research is necessary both to correlate stability characteristics with riding, flying, and handling qualities and to provide suitable data for accurate estimates of those characteristics of an airplane while it is in the design stage.

Support to LANL: Cost estimation. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

This report summarizes the activities and progress by ICF Kaiser Engineers conducted on behalf of Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL) for the US Department of Energy, Office of Waste Management (EM-33) in the area of improving methods for Cost Estimation. This work was conducted between October 1, 1992 and September 30, 1993. ICF Kaiser Engineers supported LANL in providing the Office of Waste Management with planning and document preparation services for a Cost and Schedule Estimating Guide (Guide). The intent of the Guide was to use Activity-Based Cost (ABC) estimation as a basic method in preparing cost estimates for DOEmore » planning and budgeting documents, including Activity Data Sheets (ADSs), which form the basis for the Five Year Plan document. Prior to the initiation of the present contract with LANL, ICF Kaiser Engineers was tasked to initiate planning efforts directed toward a Guide. This work, accomplished from June to September, 1992, included visits to eight DOE field offices and consultation with DOE Headquarters staff to determine the need for a Guide, the desired contents of a Guide, and the types of ABC estimation methods and documentation requirements that would be compatible with current or potential practices and expertise in existence at DOE field offices and their contractors.« less

A transverse oscillation approach for estimation of three-dimensional velocity vectors, part I: concept and simulation study.

PubMed

Pihl, Michael Johannes; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

2014-10-01

A method for 3-D velocity vector estimation using transverse oscillations is presented. The method employs a 2-D transducer and decouples the velocity estimation into three orthogonal components, which are estimated simultaneously and from the same data. The validity of the method is investigated by conducting simulations emulating a 32 × 32 matrix transducer. The results are evaluated using two performance metrics related to precision and accuracy. The study includes several parameters including 49 flow directions, the SNR, steering angle, and apodization types. The 49 flow directions cover the positive octant of the unit sphere. In terms of accuracy, the median bias is -2%. The precision of v(x) and v(y) depends on the flow angle ß and ranges from 5% to 31% relative to the peak velocity magnitude of 1 m/s. For comparison, the range is 0.4 to 2% for v(z). The parameter study also reveals, that the velocity estimation breaks down with an SNR between -6 and -3 dB. In terms of computational load, the estimation of the three velocity components requires 0.75 billion floating point operations per second (0.75 Gflops) for a realistic setup. This is well within the capability of modern scanners.

How much should I eat? Estimation of meal portions in anorexia nervosa.

PubMed

Milos, Gabriella; Kuenzli, Cornelia; Soelch, Chantal Martin; Schumacher, Sonja; Moergeli, Hanspeter; Mueller-Pfeiffer, Christoph

2013-04-01

Pathological concern regarding one's weight and weight gain is a crucial feature of anorexia nervosa. Consequently, anorexia nervosa patients often claim that they are uncertain regarding the amount of food they should eat. The present study investigated whether individuals with anorexia nervosa show an altered estimation of meal portion sizes and whether this estimation is modulated by an intent-to-eat instruction (where patients are asked to imagine having to eat the presented meal), meal type and meal portion size. Twenty-four women with anorexia nervosa and 27 healthy women estimated, using a visual analogue scale, the size of six different portions of three different meals, with and without intent-to-eat instructions. Subjects with anorexia nervosa estimated the size of small and medium meal portions (but not large meal servings) as being significantly larger, compared to estimates of healthy controls. The overestimation of small meal portions by anorexia nervosa subjects was significantly greater in the intent-to-eat, compared to general, condition. These findings suggest that disturbed perceptions associated with anorexia nervosa not only include interoceptive awareness (i.e., body weight and shape), but also extend to external disorder-related objects such as meal portion size. Specific therapeutic interventions, such as training regarding meal portion evaluation, could address these difficulties. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Optimal joint detection and estimation that maximizes ROC-type curves

PubMed Central

Wunderlich, Adam; Goossens, Bart; Abbey, Craig K.

2017-01-01

Combined detection-estimation tasks are frequently encountered in medical imaging. Optimal methods for joint detection and estimation are of interest because they provide upper bounds on observer performance, and can potentially be utilized for imaging system optimization, evaluation of observer efficiency, and development of image formation algorithms. We present a unified Bayesian framework for decision rules that maximize receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-type summary curves, including ROC, localization ROC (LROC), estimation ROC (EROC), free-response ROC (FROC), alternative free-response ROC (AFROC), and exponentially-transformed FROC (EFROC) curves, succinctly summarizing previous results. The approach relies on an interpretation of ROC-type summary curves as plots of an expected utility versus an expected disutility (or penalty) for signal-present decisions. We propose a general utility structure that is flexible enough to encompass many ROC variants and yet sufficiently constrained to allow derivation of a linear expected utility equation that is similar to that for simple binary detection. We illustrate our theory with an example comparing decision strategies for joint detection-estimation of a known signal with unknown amplitude. In addition, building on insights from our utility framework, we propose new ROC-type summary curves and associated optimal decision rules for joint detection-estimation tasks with an unknown, potentially-multiple, number of signals in each observation. PMID:27093544

Optimal Joint Detection and Estimation That Maximizes ROC-Type Curves.

PubMed

Wunderlich, Adam; Goossens, Bart; Abbey, Craig K

2016-09-01

Combined detection-estimation tasks are frequently encountered in medical imaging. Optimal methods for joint detection and estimation are of interest because they provide upper bounds on observer performance, and can potentially be utilized for imaging system optimization, evaluation of observer efficiency, and development of image formation algorithms. We present a unified Bayesian framework for decision rules that maximize receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-type summary curves, including ROC, localization ROC (LROC), estimation ROC (EROC), free-response ROC (FROC), alternative free-response ROC (AFROC), and exponentially-transformed FROC (EFROC) curves, succinctly summarizing previous results. The approach relies on an interpretation of ROC-type summary curves as plots of an expected utility versus an expected disutility (or penalty) for signal-present decisions. We propose a general utility structure that is flexible enough to encompass many ROC variants and yet sufficiently constrained to allow derivation of a linear expected utility equation that is similar to that for simple binary detection. We illustrate our theory with an example comparing decision strategies for joint detection-estimation of a known signal with unknown amplitude. In addition, building on insights from our utility framework, we propose new ROC-type summary curves and associated optimal decision rules for joint detection-estimation tasks with an unknown, potentially-multiple, number of signals in each observation.

Rotation otolith tilt-translation reinterpretation (ROTTR) hypothesis: a new hypothesis to explain neurovestibular spaceflight adaptation.

PubMed

Merfeld, Daniel M

2003-01-01

Normally, the nervous system must process ambiguous graviceptor (e.g., otolith) cues to estimate tilt and translation. The neural processes that help perform these estimation processes must adapt upon exposure to weightlessness and readapt upon return to Earth. In this paper we present a review of evidence supporting a new hypothesis that explains some aspects of these adaptive processes. This hypothesis, which we label the rotation otolith tilt-translation reinterpretation (ROTTR) hypothesis, suggests that the neural processes resulting in spaceflight adaptation include deterioration in the ability of the nervous system to use rotational cues to help accurately estimate the relative orientation of gravity ("tilt"). Changes in the ability to estimate gravity then also influence the ability of the nervous system to estimate linear acceleration ("translation"). We explicitly hypothesize that such changes in the ability to estimate "tilt" and "translation" will be measurable upon return to Earth and will, at least partially, explain the disorientation experienced when astronauts return to Earth. In this paper, we present the details and implications of ROTTR, review data related to ROTTR, and discuss the relationship of ROTTR to the influential otolith tilt-translation reinterpretation (OTTR) hypothesis as well as discuss the distinct differences between ROTTR and OTTR.

EXPOSURES AND INTERNAL DOSES OF ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) has released a final report that presents and applies a method to estimate distributions of internal concentrations of trihalomethanes (THMs) in humans resulting from a residential drinking water exposure. The report presents simulations of oral, dermal and inhalation exposures and demonstrates the feasibility of linking the US EPA’s information Collection Rule database with other databases on external exposure factors and physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling to refine population-based estimates of exposure. Review Draft - by 2010, develop scientifically sound data and approaches to assess and manage risks to human health posed by exposure to specific regulated waterborne pathogens and chemicals, including those addressed by the Arsenic, M/DBP and Six-Year Review Rules.

Upper Limits from Five Years of Blazar Observations with the VERITAS Cherenkov Telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archambault, S.; Archer, A.; Benbow, W.; Bird, R.; Biteau, J.; Buchovecky, M.; Buckley, J. H.; Bugaev, V.; Byrum, K.; Cerruti, M.; Chen, X.; Ciupik, L.; Connolly, M. P.; Cui, W.; Eisch, J. D.; Errando, M.; Falcone, A.; Feng, Q.; Finley, J. P.; Fleischhack, H.; Fortin, P.; Fortson, L.; Furniss, A.; Gillanders, G. H.; Griffin, S.; Grube, J.; Gyuk, G.; Hütten, M.; Håkansson, N.; Hanna, D.; Holder, J.; Humensky, T. B.; Johnson, C. A.; Kaaret, P.; Kar, P.; Kelley-Hoskins, N.; Kertzman, M.; Kieda, D.; Krause, M.; Krennrich, F.; Kumar, S.; Lang, M. J.; Maier, G.; McArthur, S.; McCann, A.; Meagher, K.; Moriarty, P.; Mukherjee, R.; Nguyen, T.; Nieto, D.; O'Faoláin de Bhróithe, A.; Ong, R. A.; Otte, A. N.; Park, N.; Perkins, J. S.; Pichel, A.; Pohl, M.; Popkow, A.; Pueschel, E.; Quinn, J.; Ragan, K.; Reynolds, P. T.; Richards, G. T.; Roache, E.; Rovero, A. C.; Santander, M.; Sembroski, G. H.; Shahinyan, K.; Smith, A. W.; Staszak, D.; Telezhinsky, I.; Tucci, J. V.; Tyler, J.; Vincent, S.; Wakely, S. P.; Weiner, O. M.; Weinstein, A.; Williams, D. A.; Zitzer, B.; VERITAS Collaboration; Fumagalli, M.; Prochaska, J. X.

2016-06-01

Between the beginning of its full-scale scientific operations in 2007 and 2012, the VERITAS Cherenkov telescope array observed more than 130 blazars; of these, 26 were detected as very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) γ-ray sources. In this work, we present the analysis results of a sample of 114 undetected objects. The observations constitute a total live-time of ˜570 hr. The sample includes several unidentified Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT) sources (located at high Galactic latitude) as well as all the sources from the second Fermi-LAT catalog that are contained within the field of view of the VERITAS observations. We have also performed optical spectroscopy measurements in order to estimate the redshift of some of these blazars that do not have spectroscopic distance estimates. We present new optical spectra from the Kast instrument on the Shane telescope at the Lick observatory for 18 blazars included in this work, which allowed for the successful measurement or constraint on the redshift of four of them. For each of the blazars included in our sample, we provide the flux upper limit in the VERITAS energy band. We also study the properties of the significance distributions and we present the result of a stacked analysis of the data set, which shows a 4σ excess.

Development of cost estimation tools for total occupational safety and health activities and occupational health services: cost estimation from a corporate perspective.

PubMed

Nagata, Tomohisa; Mori, Koji; Aratake, Yutaka; Ide, Hiroshi; Ishida, Hiromi; Nobori, Junichiro; Kojima, Reiko; Odagami, Kiminori; Kato, Anna; Tsutsumi, Akizumi; Matsuda, Shinya

2014-01-01

The aim of the present study was to develop standardized cost estimation tools that provide information to employers about occupational safety and health (OSH) activities for effective and efficient decision making in Japanese companies. We interviewed OSH staff members including full-time professional occupational physicians to list all OSH activities. Using activity-based costing, cost data were obtained from retrospective analyses of occupational safety and health costs over a 1-year period in three manufacturing workplaces and were obtained from retrospective analyses of occupational health services costs in four manufacturing workplaces. We verified the tools additionally in four workplaces including service businesses. We created the OSH and occupational health standardized cost estimation tools. OSH costs consisted of personnel costs, expenses, outsourcing costs and investments for 15 OSH activities. The tools provided accurate, relevant information on OSH activities and occupational health services. The standardized information obtained from our OSH and occupational health cost estimation tools can be used to manage OSH costs, make comparisons of OSH costs between companies and organizations and help occupational health physicians and employers to determine the best course of action.

Improved exposure estimation in soil screening and cleanup criteria for volatile organic chemicals.

PubMed

DeVaull, George E

2017-09-01

Soil cleanup criteria define acceptable concentrations of organic chemical constituents for exposed humans. These criteria sum the estimated soil exposure over multiple pathways. Assumptions for ingestion, dermal contact, and dust exposure generally presume a chemical persists in surface soils at a constant concentration level for the entire exposure duration. For volatile chemicals, this is an unrealistic assumption. A calculation method is presented for surficial soil criteria that include volatile depletion of chemical for these uptake pathways. The depletion estimates compare favorably with measured concentration profiles and with field measurements of soil concentration. Corresponding volatilization estimates compare favorably with measured data for a wide range of volatile and semivolatile chemicals, including instances with and without the presence of a mixed-chemical residual phase. Selected examples show application of the revised factors in estimating screening levels for benzene in surficial soils. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:861-869. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Sensitivity of Above-Ground Biomass Estimates to Height-Diameter Modelling in Mixed-Species West African Woodlands

PubMed Central

Aynekulu, Ermias; Pitkänen, Sari; Packalen, Petteri

2016-01-01

It has been suggested that above-ground biomass (AGB) inventories should include tree height (H), in addition to diameter (D). As H is a difficult variable to measure, H-D models are commonly used to predict H. We tested a number of approaches for H-D modelling, including additive terms which increased the complexity of the model, and observed how differences in tree-level predictions of H propagated to plot-level AGB estimations. We were especially interested in detecting whether the choice of method can lead to bias. The compared approaches listed in the order of increasing complexity were: (B0) AGB estimations from D-only; (B1) involving also H obtained from a fixed-effects H-D model; (B2) involving also species; (B3) including also between-plot variability as random effects; and (B4) involving multilevel nested random effects for grouping plots in clusters. In light of the results, the modelling approach affected the AGB estimation significantly in some cases, although differences were negligible for some of the alternatives. The most important differences were found between including H or not in the AGB estimation. We observed that AGB predictions without H information were very sensitive to the environmental stress parameter (E), which can induce a critical bias. Regarding the H-D modelling, the most relevant effect was found when species was included as an additive term. We presented a two-step methodology, which succeeded in identifying the species for which the general H-D relation was relevant to modify. Based on the results, our final choice was the single-level mixed-effects model (B3), which accounts for the species but also for the plot random effects reflecting site-specific factors such as soil properties and degree of disturbance. PMID:27367857

Visual illusion in mass estimation of cut food.

PubMed

Wada, Yuji; Tsuzuki, Daisuke; Kobayashi, Naoki; Hayakawa, Fumiyo; Kohyama, Kaoru

2007-07-01

We investigated the effect of the appearance of cut food on visual mass estimation. In this experiment, we manipulated the shape (e.g., a block, fine strips, or small cubes) of food samples of various masses, and presented them on a CRT display as stimuli. Eleven subjects participated in tasks to choose the picture of the food sample which they felt indicated a target mass. We used raw carrots and surimi (ground fish) gel as hard and soft samples, respectively. The results clearly confirm an existence of an illusion, and this indicates that the appearance of food interferes with visual mass estimation. Specifically, participants often overestimated the mass of finely cut food, especially fine strips, whereas they could accurately estimate the mass of block samples, regardless of the physical characteristics of the foods. The overestimation of the mass of cut food increased with the food's actual mass, and was particularly obvious with increases of apparent volume when cut into fine strips. These results suggest that the apparent volume of a food sample effects the visual estimation of its mass. Hence we can conclude that there are illusions associated with the visual presentation of food that may influence various food impressions, including satisfaction and eating behaviour.

Nonparametric change point estimation for survival distributions with a partially constant hazard rate.

PubMed

Brazzale, Alessandra R; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Krügel, Stefanie; Schiergens, Tobias S; Trentzsch, Heiko; Hartl, Wolfgang

2018-04-05

We present a new method for estimating a change point in the hazard function of a survival distribution assuming a constant hazard rate after the change point and a decreasing hazard rate before the change point. Our method is based on fitting a stump regression to p values for testing hazard rates in small time intervals. We present three real data examples describing survival patterns of severely ill patients, whose excess mortality rates are known to persist far beyond hospital discharge. For designing survival studies in these patients and for the definition of hospital performance metrics (e.g. mortality), it is essential to define adequate and objective end points. The reliable estimation of a change point will help researchers to identify such end points. By precisely knowing this change point, clinicians can distinguish between the acute phase with high hazard (time elapsed after admission and before the change point was reached), and the chronic phase (time elapsed after the change point) in which hazard is fairly constant. We show in an extensive simulation study that maximum likelihood estimation is not robust in this setting, and we evaluate our new estimation strategy including bootstrap confidence intervals and finite sample bias correction.

Estimation of the longitudinal and lateral-directional aerodynamic parameters from flight data for the NASA F/A-18 HARV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Napolitano, Marcello R.

1996-01-01

This progress report presents the results of an investigation focused on parameter identification for the NASA F/A-18 HARV. This aircraft was used in the high alpha research program at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. In this study the longitudinal and lateral-directional stability derivatives are estimated from flight data using the Maximum Likelihood method coupled with a Newton-Raphson minimization technique. The objective is to estimate an aerodynamic model describing the aircraft dynamics over a range of angle of attack from 5 deg to 60 deg. The mathematical model is built using the traditional static and dynamic derivative buildup. Flight data used in this analysis were from a variety of maneuvers. The longitudinal maneuvers included large amplitude multiple doublets, optimal inputs, frequency sweeps, and pilot pitch stick inputs. The lateral-directional maneuvers consisted of large amplitude multiple doublets, optimal inputs and pilot stick and rudder inputs. The parameter estimation code pEst, developed at NASA Dryden, was used in this investigation. Results of the estimation process from alpha = 5 deg to alpha = 60 deg are presented and discussed.

Elimination of Emergency Department Medication Errors Due To Estimated Weights.

PubMed

Greenwalt, Mary; Griffen, David; Wilkerson, Jim

2017-01-01

From 7/2014 through 6/2015, 10 emergency department (ED) medication dosing errors were reported through the electronic incident reporting system of an urban academic medical center. Analysis of these medication errors identified inaccurate estimated weight on patients as the root cause. The goal of this project was to reduce weight-based dosing medication errors due to inaccurate estimated weights on patients presenting to the ED. Chart review revealed that 13.8% of estimated weights documented on admitted ED patients varied more than 10% from subsequent actual admission weights recorded. A random sample of 100 charts containing estimated weights revealed 2 previously unreported significant medication dosage errors (.02 significant error rate). Key improvements included removing barriers to weighing ED patients, storytelling to engage staff and change culture, and removal of the estimated weight documentation field from the ED electronic health record (EHR) forms. With these improvements estimated weights on ED patients, and the resulting medication errors, were eliminated.

Equations and charts for the rapid estimation of hinge-moment and effectiveness parameters for trailing-edge controls having leading and trailing edges swept ahead of the Mach lines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goin, Kennith L

1951-01-01

Existing conical-flow solutions have been used to calculate the hinge-moments and effectiveness parameters of trailing-edge controls having leading and trailing edges swept ahead of the Mach lines and having streamwise root and tip chords. Equations and detailed charts are presented for the rapid estimation of these parameters. Also included is an approximate method by which these parameters may be corrected for airfoil-section thickness.

Study of plasma environments for the integrated Space Station electromagnetic analysis system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Nagendra

1992-01-01

The final report includes an analysis of various plasma effects on the electromagnetic environment of the Space Station Freedom. Effects of arcing are presented. Concerns of control of arcing by a plasma contactor are highlighted. Generation of waves by contaminant ions are studied and amplitude levels of the waves are estimated. Generation of electromagnetic waves by currents in the structure of the space station, driven by motional EMF, is analyzed and the radiation level is estimated.

Numerical approach for ECT by using boundary element method with Laplace transform

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Enokizono, M.; Todaka, T.; Shibao, K.

1997-03-01

This paper presents an inverse analysis by using BEM with Laplace transform. The method is applied to a simple problem in the eddy current testing (ECT). Some crack shapes in a conductive specimen are estimated from distributions of the transient eddy current on its sensing surface and magnetic flux density in the liftoff space. Because the transient behavior includes information on various frequency components, the method is applicable to the shape estimation of a comparative small crack.

Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model – A User’s Guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrow, William R.; Shehabi, Arman; Smith, Sarah Josephine

The Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model is a cost-performance techno-economic model that estimates total large-scale manufacturing costs for necessary to produce a given product. It is designed to provide production cost estimates for technology researchers to help guide technology research and development towards an eventual cost-effective product. The model presented in this user’s guide is generic and can be tailored to the manufacturing of any product, including the generation of electricity (as a product). This flexibility, however, requires the user to develop the processes and process efficiencies that represents a full-scale manufacturing facility. The generic model is comprised of several modulesmore » that estimate variable costs (material, labor, and operating), fixed costs (capital & maintenance), financing structures (debt and equity financing), and tax implications (taxable income after equipment and building depreciation, debt interest payments, and expenses) of a notional manufacturing plant. A cash-flow method is used to estimate a selling price necessary for the manufacturing plant to recover its total cost of production. A levelized unit sales price ($ per unit of product) is determined by dividing the net-present value of the manufacturing plant’s expenses ($) by the net present value of its product output. A user defined production schedule drives the cash-flow method that determines the levelized unit price. In addition, an analyst can increase the levelized unit price to include a gross profit margin to estimate a product sales price. This model allows an analyst to understand the effect that any input variables could have on the cost of manufacturing a product. In addition, the tool is able to perform sensitivity analysis, which can be used to identify the key variables and assumptions that have the greatest influence on the levelized costs. This component is intended to help technology researchers focus their research attention on tasks that offer the greatest opportunities for cost reduction early in the research and development stages of technology invention.« less

Use of NEXRAD radar-based observations for quality control of in-situ rain gauge measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, B. R.; Prat, O.; Leeper, R.

2017-12-01

Rain gauge quality control is an often over looked important step in the archive of historical precipitation estimates. We investigate the possibilities that exist for using ground based radar networks for quality control of rain gauge measurements. This process includes the point to pixel comparisons of the rain gauge measurements with NEXRAD observations. There are two NEXRAD based data sets used for reference; the NCEP stage IV and the NWS MRMS gridded data sets. The NCEP stage IV data set is available at 4km hourly for the period 2002-present and includes the radar-gauge bias adjusted precipitation estimate. The NWS MRMS data set includes several different variables such as reflectivity, radar-only estimates, precipitation flag, and radar-gauge bias adjusted precipitation estimates. The latter product provides for much more information to apply quality control such as identification of precipitation type, identification of storm type and Z-R relation. In addition, some of the variables are available at 5-minute scale. The rain gauge networks that are investigated are the Climate Reference Network (CRN), the Fischer-Porter Hourly Precipitation Database (HPD), and the Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS). The CRN network is available at the 5-minute scale, the HPD network is available at the 15-minute and hourly scale, and HADS is available at the hourly scale. The varying scales present challenges for comparisons. However given the higher resolution radar-based products we identify an optimal combination of rain gauge observations that can be compared to the radar-based information. The quality control process focuses on identifying faulty gauges in direct comparison while a deeper investigation focuses on event-based differences from light rain to extreme storms.

Estimating user costs as a basis for incentive/disincentive amounts in highway construction contracts.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-02-01

The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) occasionally includes an incentive/ disincentive for early completion (I/D) in its construction contracts. This report presents the results of a project to identify procedures that would (1) enhance th...

Counting Penguins.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perry, Mike; Kader, Gary

1998-01-01

Presents an activity on the simplification of penguin counting by employing the basic ideas and principles of sampling to teach students to understand and recognize its role in statistical claims. Emphasizes estimation, data analysis and interpretation, and central limit theorem. Includes a list of items for classroom discussion. (ASK)

How to handle stuck pipe and fishing problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brouse, M.

1983-01-01

This paper presents valuable information on evaluating fishing problems, including a rule of thumb equation for estimating the number of days that should be spent fishing. Also given is a description and usage breakdown of the numerous tools available to the operator.

A new approach to hierarchical data analysis: Targeted maximum likelihood estimation for the causal effect of a cluster-level exposure.

PubMed

Balzer, Laura B; Zheng, Wenjing; van der Laan, Mark J; Petersen, Maya L

2018-01-01

We often seek to estimate the impact of an exposure naturally occurring or randomly assigned at the cluster-level. For example, the literature on neighborhood determinants of health continues to grow. Likewise, community randomized trials are applied to learn about real-world implementation, sustainability, and population effects of interventions with proven individual-level efficacy. In these settings, individual-level outcomes are correlated due to shared cluster-level factors, including the exposure, as well as social or biological interactions between individuals. To flexibly and efficiently estimate the effect of a cluster-level exposure, we present two targeted maximum likelihood estimators (TMLEs). The first TMLE is developed under a non-parametric causal model, which allows for arbitrary interactions between individuals within a cluster. These interactions include direct transmission of the outcome (i.e. contagion) and influence of one individual's covariates on another's outcome (i.e. covariate interference). The second TMLE is developed under a causal sub-model assuming the cluster-level and individual-specific covariates are sufficient to control for confounding. Simulations compare the alternative estimators and illustrate the potential gains from pairing individual-level risk factors and outcomes during estimation, while avoiding unwarranted assumptions. Our results suggest that estimation under the sub-model can result in bias and misleading inference in an observational setting. Incorporating working assumptions during estimation is more robust than assuming they hold in the underlying causal model. We illustrate our approach with an application to HIV prevention and treatment.

Extension of the ADC Charge-Collection Model to Include Multiple Junctions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edmonds, Larry D.

2011-01-01

The ADC model is a charge-collection model derived for simple p-n junction silicon diodes having a single reverse-biased p-n junction at one end and an ideal substrate contact at the other end. The present paper extends the model to include multiple junctions, and the goal is to estimate how collected charge is shared by the different junctions.

Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klimont, Zbigniew; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Heyes, Chris; Purohit, Pallav; Cofala, Janusz; Rafaj, Peter; Borken-Kleefeld, Jens; Schöpp, Wolfgang

2017-07-01

This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of historical (1990-2010) global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2. 5, PM10), as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The estimates were developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where source- and region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e. kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, refuse burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 172 source regions (as well as international shipping), presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5° × 0.5° longitude-latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and, consequently, CO2 emissions, but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North America, and the Pacific region. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g. European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30 % in 1990 to well below 15 % in 2010, while Asia's contribution grew from just over 50 % to nearly two-thirds of the global total in 2010. For all PM species considered, Asian sources represented over 60 % of the global anthropogenic total, and residential combustion was the most important sector, contributing about 60 % for BC and OC, 45 % for PM2. 5, and less than 40 % for PM10, where large combustion sources and industrial processes are equally important. Global anthropogenic emissions of BC were estimated at about 6.6 and 7.2 Tg in 2000 and 2010, respectively, and represent about 15 % of PM2. 5 but for some sources reach nearly 50 %, i.e. for the transport sector. Our global BC numbers are higher than previously published owing primarily to the inclusion of new sources. This PM estimate fills the gap in emission data and emission source characterization required in air quality and climate modelling studies and health impact assessments at a regional and global level, as it includes both carbonaceous and non-carbonaceous constituents of primary particulate matter emissions. The developed emission dataset has been used in several regional and global atmospheric transport and climate model simulations within the ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project and beyond, serves better parameterization of the global integrated assessment models with respect to representation of black carbon and organic carbon emissions, and built a basis for recently published global particulate number estimates.

Solid Cancer Incidence in the Techa River Incidence Cohort: 1956-2007.

PubMed

Davis, F G; Yu, K L; Preston, D; Epifanova, S; Degteva, M; Akleyev, A V

2015-07-01

Previously reported studies of the Techa River Cohort have established associations between radiation dose and the occurrence of solid cancers and leukemia (non-CLL) that appear to be linear in dose response. These analyses include 17,435 cohort members alive and not known to have had cancer prior to January 1, 1956 who lived in areas near the river or Chelyabinsk City at some time between 1956 and the end of 2007, utilized individualized dose estimates computed using the Techa River Dosimetry System 2009 and included five more years of follow-up. The median and mean dose estimates based on these doses are consistently higher than those based on earlier Techa River Dosimetry System 2000 dose estimates. This article includes new site-specific cancer risk estimates and risk estimates adjusted for available information on smoking. There is a statistically significant (P = 0.02) linear trend in the smoking-adjusted all-solid cancer incidence risks with an excess relative risk (ERR) after exposure to 100 mGy of 0.077 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.013-0.15. Examination of site-specific risks revealed statistically significant radiation dose effects only for cancers of the esophagus and uterus with an ERR per 100 mGy estimates in excess of 0.10. Esophageal cancer risk estimates were modified by ethnicity and sex, but not smoking. While the solid cancer rates are attenuated when esophageal cancer is removed (ERR = 0.063 per 100 mGy), a dose-response relationship is present and it remains likely that radiation exposure has increased the risks for most solid cancers in the cohort despite the lack of power to detect statistically significant risks for specific sites.

Ecological risk assessment of aerial insectivores of the Clinch River/Poplar Creek system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baron, L.A.; Sample, B.E.

Risks to aerial insectivores (species that consume flying insects; rough-winged swallows, little brown bats, and endangered gray bats) were assessed for the CERCLA remedial investigation of the Clinch River/Poplar Creek system. Adult mayflies and sediment were collected from four locations and analyzed for contaminants. Sediment-to-mayfly contaminant transfer factors were generated from these data and used to estimate contaminant concentrations in mayflies from thirteen additional locations. Contaminants of potential concern (COPCs) were identified by comparing exposure estimates, generated using point estimates of parameter values, to NOAELS. COPCs included mercury, arsenic, and PCBs. Exposure to COPCs was re-estimated using Monte Carlo simulations.more » Adverse population effects were assumed likely if > 20% of the estimated exposure distribution was greater than the LOAEL. Exposure of swallows to mercury was a significant risk at two locations. Exposure of bats to mercury was a significant risk at only one location. While consideration of movement and foraging territory did not reduce estimated risks to swallows, when exposures for gray and little brown bats were re-estimated, population-level risks from mercury were no longer considered likely. As an endangered species however, protection is extended to individual gray bats. While less than 20% of the mercury exposure distribution for gray bats was > LOAEL, > 99% of the distribution was >NOAEL. Therefore, adverse effects may occur among maximally exposed individual gray bats. Available data indicate that contaminants in Poplar Creek are likely to present a risk to the swallow population, do not present a risk to the little brown bat population, and may present a risk to individual gray bats.« less

Estimation and simulation of multi-beam sonar noise.

PubMed

Holmin, Arne Johannes; Korneliussen, Rolf J; Tjøstheim, Dag

2016-02-01

Methods for the estimation and modeling of noise present in multi-beam sonar data, including the magnitude, probability distribution, and spatial correlation of the noise, are developed. The methods consider individual acoustic samples and facilitate compensation of highly localized noise as well as subtraction of noise estimates averaged over time. The modeled noise is included in an existing multi-beam sonar simulation model [Holmin, Handegard, Korneliussen, and Tjøstheim, J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 132, 3720-3734 (2012)], resulting in an improved model that can be used to strengthen interpretation of data collected in situ at any signal to noise ratio. Two experiments, from the former study in which multi-beam sonar data of herring schools were simulated, are repeated with inclusion of noise. These experiments demonstrate (1) the potentially large effect of changes in fish orientation on the backscatter from a school, and (2) the estimation of behavioral characteristics such as the polarization and packing density of fish schools. The latter is achieved by comparing real data with simulated data for different polarizations and packing densities.

Robust mislabel logistic regression without modeling mislabel probabilities.

PubMed

Hung, Hung; Jou, Zhi-Yu; Huang, Su-Yun

2018-03-01

Logistic regression is among the most widely used statistical methods for linear discriminant analysis. In many applications, we only observe possibly mislabeled responses. Fitting a conventional logistic regression can then lead to biased estimation. One common resolution is to fit a mislabel logistic regression model, which takes into consideration of mislabeled responses. Another common method is to adopt a robust M-estimation by down-weighting suspected instances. In this work, we propose a new robust mislabel logistic regression based on γ-divergence. Our proposal possesses two advantageous features: (1) It does not need to model the mislabel probabilities. (2) The minimum γ-divergence estimation leads to a weighted estimating equation without the need to include any bias correction term, that is, it is automatically bias-corrected. These features make the proposed γ-logistic regression more robust in model fitting and more intuitive for model interpretation through a simple weighting scheme. Our method is also easy to implement, and two types of algorithms are included. Simulation studies and the Pima data application are presented to demonstrate the performance of γ-logistic regression. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Improved analysis of ground vibrations produced by man-made sources.

PubMed

Ainalis, Daniel; Ducarne, Loïc; Kaufmann, Olivier; Tshibangu, Jean-Pierre; Verlinden, Olivier; Kouroussis, Georges

2018-03-01

Man-made sources of ground vibration must be carefully monitored in urban areas in order to ensure that structural damage and discomfort to residents is prevented or minimised. The research presented in this paper provides a comparative evaluation of various methods used to analyse a series of tri-axial ground vibration measurements generated by rail, road, and explosive blasting. The first part of the study is focused on comparing various techniques to estimate the dominant frequency, including time-frequency analysis. The comparative evaluation of the various methods to estimate the dominant frequency revealed that, depending on the method used, there can be significant variation in the estimates obtained. A new and improved analysis approach using the continuous wavelet transform was also presented, using the time-frequency distribution to estimate the localised dominant frequency and peak particle velocity. The technique can be used to accurately identify the level and frequency content of a ground vibration signal as it varies with time, and identify the number of times the threshold limits of damage are exceeded. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

3D brain tumor localization and parameter estimation using thermographic approach on GPU.

PubMed

Bousselham, Abdelmajid; Bouattane, Omar; Youssfi, Mohamed; Raihani, Abdelhadi

2018-01-01

The aim of this paper is to present a GPU parallel algorithm for brain tumor detection to estimate its size and location from surface temperature distribution obtained by thermography. The normal brain tissue is modeled as a rectangular cube including spherical tumor. The temperature distribution is calculated using forward three dimensional Pennes bioheat transfer equation, it's solved using massively parallel Finite Difference Method (FDM) and implemented on Graphics Processing Unit (GPU). Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used to solve the inverse problem and estimate the tumor size and location by minimizing an objective function involving measured temperature on the surface to those obtained by numerical simulation. The parallel implementation of Finite Difference Method reduces significantly the time of bioheat transfer and greatly accelerates the inverse identification of brain tumor thermophysical and geometrical properties. Experimental results show significant gains in the computational speed on GPU and achieve a speedup of around 41 compared to the CPU. The analysis performance of the estimation based on tumor size inside brain tissue also presented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal Mediation Analysis with Time-varying Mediators and Exposures, with Application to Survival Outcomes

PubMed Central

Zheng, Wenjing; van der Laan, Mark

2017-01-01

In this paper, we study the effect of a time-varying exposure mediated by a time-varying intermediate variable. We consider general longitudinal settings, including survival outcomes. At a given time point, the exposure and mediator of interest are influenced by past covariates, mediators and exposures, and affect future covariates, mediators and exposures. Right censoring, if present, occurs in response to past history. To address the challenges in mediation analysis that are unique to these settings, we propose a formulation in terms of random interventions based on conditional distributions for the mediator. This formulation, in particular, allows for well-defined natural direct and indirect effects in the survival setting, and natural decomposition of the standard total effect. Upon establishing identifiability and the corresponding statistical estimands, we derive the efficient influence curves and establish their robustness properties. Applying Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation, we use these efficient influence curves to construct multiply robust and efficient estimators. We also present an inverse probability weighted estimator and a nested non-targeted substitution estimator for these parameters. PMID:29387520

Assessment of biomass open burning emissions in Indonesia and potential climate forcing impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Permadi, Didin Agustian; Kim Oanh, Nguyen Thi

2013-10-01

This paper presents an emission inventory (EI) for biomass open burning (OB) sources including forest, agro-residue and municipal solid waste (MSW) in Indonesia for year 2007. The EI covered toxic air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) and was presented as annual and monthly average for every district, and further on a grid of 0.25° × 0.25°. A rigorous analysis of activity data and emission factor ranges was done to produce the low, best and high emission estimates for each species. Development of EI methodology for MSW OB which, to our best knowledge, has not been presented in detail in the literature was a focus of this paper. The best estimates of biomass OB emission of toxic air pollutants for the country, in Gg, were: 9.6 SO2; 98 NOx; 7411 CO; 335 NMVOC; 162 NH3; 439 PM10; 357 PM2.5; 24 BC; and 147 OC. The best emission estimates of GHGs, in Gg, were: 401 CH4, 57,247 CO2; and 3.6 N2O. The low and high values of the emission estimates for different species were found to range from -86% to +260% of the corresponding best estimates. Crop residue OB contributed more than 80% of the total biomass OB emissions, followed by forest fire of 2-12% (not including peat soil fire emission) and MSW (1-8%). An inter-annual active fires count for Indonesia showed relatively low values in 2007 which may be attributed to the high rainfall intensity under the influence of La Niña climate pattern in the year. Total estimated net climate forcing from OB in Indonesia was 110 (20 year horizon) and 73 (100 year horizon) Tg CO2 equivalents which is around 0.9-1.1% of that reported for the global biomass OB for both time horizons. The spatial distribution showed higher emissions in large urban areas in Java and Sumatra Island, while the monthly emissions indicated higher values during the dry months of August-October.

Flood area and damage estimation in Zhejiang, China.

PubMed

Liu, Renyi; Liu, Nan

2002-09-01

A GIS-based method to estimate flood area and damage is presented in this paper, which is oriented to developing countries like China, where labor is readily available for GIS data collecting, and tools such as, HEC-GeoRAS might not be readily available. At present local authorities in developing countries are often not predisposed to pay for commercial GIS platforms. To calculate flood area, two cases, non-source flood and source flood, are distinguished and a seed-spread algorithm suitable for source-flooding is described. The flood damage estimation is calculated in raster format by overlaying the flood area range with thematic maps and relating this to other socioeconomic data. Several measures used to improve the geometric accuracy and computing efficiency are presented. The management issues related to the application of this method, including the cost-effectiveness of approximate method in practice and supplementing two technical lines (self-programming and adopting commercial GIS software) to each other, are also discussed. The applications show that this approach has practical significance to flood fighting and control in developing countries like China.

Passive acoustic monitoring of beaked whale densities in the Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Hildebrand, John A; Baumann-Pickering, Simone; Frasier, Kaitlin E; Trickey, Jennifer S; Merkens, Karlina P; Wiggins, Sean M; McDonald, Mark A; Garrison, Lance P; Harris, Danielle; Marques, Tiago A; Thomas, Len

2015-11-12

Beaked whales are deep diving elusive animals, difficult to census with conventional visual surveys. Methods are presented for the density estimation of beaked whales, using passive acoustic monitoring data collected at sites in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) from the period during and following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (2010-2013). Beaked whale species detected include: Gervais' (Mesoplodon europaeus), Cuvier's (Ziphius cavirostris), Blainville's (Mesoplodon densirostris) and an unknown species of Mesoplodon sp. (designated as Beaked Whale Gulf - BWG). For Gervais' and Cuvier's beaked whales, we estimated weekly animal density using two methods, one based on the number of echolocation clicks, and another based on the detection of animal groups during 5 min time-bins. Density estimates derived from these two methods were in good general agreement. At two sites in the western GOM, Gervais' beaked whales were present throughout the monitoring period, but Cuvier's beaked whales were present only seasonally, with periods of low density during the summer and higher density in the winter. At an eastern GOM site, both Gervais' and Cuvier's beaked whales had a high density throughout the monitoring period.

A concept for adaptive performance optimization on commercial transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, Michael R.; Enns, Dale F.

1995-01-01

An adaptive control method is presented for the minimization of drag during flight for transport aircraft. The minimization of drag is achieved by taking advantage of the redundant control capability available in the pitch axis, with the horizontal tail used as the primary surface and symmetric deflection of the ailerons and cruise flaps used as additional controls. The additional control surfaces are excited with sinusoidal signals, while the altitude and velocity loops are closed with guidance and control laws. A model of the throttle response as a function of the additional control surfaces is formulated and the parameters in the model are estimated from the sensor measurements using a least squares estimation method. The estimated model is used to determine the minimum drag positions of the control surfaces. The method is presented for the optimization of one and two additional control surfaces. The adaptive control method is extended to optimize rate of climb with the throttle fixed. Simulations that include realistic disturbances are presented, as well as the results of a Monte Carlo simulation analysis that shows the effects of changing the disturbance environment and the excitation signal parameters.

Field evaluation of distance-estimation error during wetland-dependent bird surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Conway, Courtney J.

2012-01-01

Context: The most common methods to estimate detection probability during avian point-count surveys involve recording a distance between the survey point and individual birds detected during the survey period. Accurately measuring or estimating distance is an important assumption of these methods; however, this assumption is rarely tested in the context of aural avian point-count surveys. Aims: We expand on recent bird-simulation studies to document the error associated with estimating distance to calling birds in a wetland ecosystem. Methods: We used two approaches to estimate the error associated with five surveyor's distance estimates between the survey point and calling birds, and to determine the factors that affect a surveyor's ability to estimate distance. Key results: We observed biased and imprecise distance estimates when estimating distance to simulated birds in a point-count scenario (x̄error = -9 m, s.d.error = 47 m) and when estimating distances to real birds during field trials (x̄error = 39 m, s.d.error = 79 m). The amount of bias and precision in distance estimates differed among surveyors; surveyors with more training and experience were less biased and more precise when estimating distance to both real and simulated birds. Three environmental factors were important in explaining the error associated with distance estimates, including the measured distance from the bird to the surveyor, the volume of the call and the species of bird. Surveyors tended to make large overestimations to birds close to the survey point, which is an especially serious error in distance sampling. Conclusions: Our results suggest that distance-estimation error is prevalent, but surveyor training may be the easiest way to reduce distance-estimation error. Implications: The present study has demonstrated how relatively simple field trials can be used to estimate the error associated with distance estimates used to estimate detection probability during avian point-count surveys. Evaluating distance-estimation errors will allow investigators to better evaluate the accuracy of avian density and trend estimates. Moreover, investigators who evaluate distance-estimation errors could employ recently developed models to incorporate distance-estimation error into analyses. We encourage further development of such models, including the inclusion of such models into distance-analysis software.

Approaches to Refining Estimates of Global Burden and Economics of Dengue

PubMed Central

Shepard, Donald S.; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Betancourt-Cravioto, Miguel; Guzmán, María G.; Halstead, Scott B.; Harris, Eva; Mudin, Rose Nani; Murray, Kristy O.; Tapia-Conyer, Roberto; Gubler, Duane J.

2014-01-01

Dengue presents a formidable and growing global economic and disease burden, with around half the world's population estimated to be at risk of infection. There is wide variation and substantial uncertainty in current estimates of dengue disease burden and, consequently, on economic burden estimates. Dengue disease varies across time, geography and persons affected. Variations in the transmission of four different viruses and interactions among vector density and host's immune status, age, pre-existing medical conditions, all contribute to the disease's complexity. This systematic review aims to identify and examine estimates of dengue disease burden and costs, discuss major sources of uncertainty, and suggest next steps to improve estimates. Economic analysis of dengue is mainly concerned with costs of illness, particularly in estimating total episodes of symptomatic dengue. However, national dengue disease reporting systems show a great diversity in design and implementation, hindering accurate global estimates of dengue episodes and country comparisons. A combination of immediate, short-, and long-term strategies could substantially improve estimates of disease and, consequently, of economic burden of dengue. Suggestions for immediate implementation include refining analysis of currently available data to adjust reported episodes and expanding data collection in empirical studies, such as documenting the number of ambulatory visits before and after hospitalization and including breakdowns by age. Short-term recommendations include merging multiple data sources, such as cohort and surveillance data to evaluate the accuracy of reporting rates (by health sector, treatment, severity, etc.), and using covariates to extrapolate dengue incidence to locations with no or limited reporting. Long-term efforts aim at strengthening capacity to document dengue transmission using serological methods to systematically analyze and relate to epidemiologic data. As promising tools for diagnosis, vaccination, vector control, and treatment are being developed, these recommended steps should improve objective, systematic measures of dengue burden to strengthen health policy decisions. PMID:25412506

Approaches to refining estimates of global burden and economics of dengue.

PubMed

Shepard, Donald S; Undurraga, Eduardo A; Betancourt-Cravioto, Miguel; Guzmán, María G; Halstead, Scott B; Harris, Eva; Mudin, Rose Nani; Murray, Kristy O; Tapia-Conyer, Roberto; Gubler, Duane J

2014-11-01

Dengue presents a formidable and growing global economic and disease burden, with around half the world's population estimated to be at risk of infection. There is wide variation and substantial uncertainty in current estimates of dengue disease burden and, consequently, on economic burden estimates. Dengue disease varies across time, geography and persons affected. Variations in the transmission of four different viruses and interactions among vector density and host's immune status, age, pre-existing medical conditions, all contribute to the disease's complexity. This systematic review aims to identify and examine estimates of dengue disease burden and costs, discuss major sources of uncertainty, and suggest next steps to improve estimates. Economic analysis of dengue is mainly concerned with costs of illness, particularly in estimating total episodes of symptomatic dengue. However, national dengue disease reporting systems show a great diversity in design and implementation, hindering accurate global estimates of dengue episodes and country comparisons. A combination of immediate, short-, and long-term strategies could substantially improve estimates of disease and, consequently, of economic burden of dengue. Suggestions for immediate implementation include refining analysis of currently available data to adjust reported episodes and expanding data collection in empirical studies, such as documenting the number of ambulatory visits before and after hospitalization and including breakdowns by age. Short-term recommendations include merging multiple data sources, such as cohort and surveillance data to evaluate the accuracy of reporting rates (by health sector, treatment, severity, etc.), and using covariates to extrapolate dengue incidence to locations with no or limited reporting. Long-term efforts aim at strengthening capacity to document dengue transmission using serological methods to systematically analyze and relate to epidemiologic data. As promising tools for diagnosis, vaccination, vector control, and treatment are being developed, these recommended steps should improve objective, systematic measures of dengue burden to strengthen health policy decisions.

Outside users payload model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

The outside users payload model which is a continuation of documents and replaces and supersedes the July 1984 edition is presented. The time period covered by this model is 1985 through 2000. The following sections are included: (1) definition of the scope of the model; (2) discussion of the methodology used; (3) overview of total demand; (4) summary of the estimated market segmentation by launch vehicle; (5) summary of the estimated market segmentation by user type; (6) details of the STS market forecast; (7) summary of transponder trends; (8) model overview by mission category; and (9) detailed mission models. All known non-NASA, non-DOD reimbursable payloads forecast to be flown by non-Soviet-block countries are included in this model with the exception of Spacelab payloads and small self contained payloads. Certain DOD-sponsored or cosponsored payloads are included if they are reimbursable launches.

Hubble Space Telescope Star Tracker ad Two-Gyro Control Law Design, Implementation, and On-Orbit Performance. Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

VanArsdall, John C.

2005-01-01

The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) normally requires three gyroscopes for three-axis rate control. The loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia on STS-107 resulted in the cancellation of a shuttle-based HST Servicing Mission 4. Therefore, HST must operate using the on-board hardware until an alternate means of servicing can be accomplished. The probability of gyro failure indicates that fewer than three gyros will be operable before any servicing mission can be performe& To mitigate this, and to extend the HST life expectancy, a rate estimation and control algorithm was developed that requires two gyros to measure rate about two axes, with the remaining axis rate estimated using one of three alternate sensors. Three-axis magnetometers (MSS) are used for coarse rate estimation during large maneuvers and during occultations of other sensors. Fixed-Head Star Trackers (FHSTs) are used for rate estimation during safe mode recovery and during transition to science operations. Fine rate estimation during science operations is performed using the Fine Guidance Sensors (FGSs). The FHST mode (T2G) relies on star vectors as measured by the FHSTs to estimate vehicle rate about the axis not measured by the gyros. Since the FHSTs were not designed to estimate body rate, this method involves a unique set of problems that had to be overcome in the final design, such as the effect of FHST break tracks and moving targets on rate estimation. The solutions to these problems, as well as a detailed description of the design and implementation of the rate estimation are presented Also included are the time domain and frequency domain analysis of the T2G control law. A high fidelity HST simulator (HSTSIM) was used to verify T2G performance prior to on-orbit use. Results of these simulations are also presented. Finally, analysis of actual T2G on-orbit test results is presented for design validation.

Estimating the Entropy of Binary Time Series: Methodology, Some Theory and a Simulation Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Yun; Kontoyiannis, Ioannis; Bienenstock, Elie

2008-06-01

Partly motivated by entropy-estimation problems in neuroscience, we present a detailed and extensive comparison between some of the most popular and effective entropy estimation methods used in practice: The plug-in method, four different estimators based on the Lempel-Ziv (LZ) family of data compression algorithms, an estimator based on the Context-Tree Weighting (CTW) method, and the renewal entropy estimator. METHODOLOGY: Three new entropy estimators are introduced; two new LZ-based estimators, and the “renewal entropy estimator,” which is tailored to data generated by a binary renewal process. For two of the four LZ-based estimators, a bootstrap procedure is described for evaluating their standard error, and a practical rule of thumb is heuristically derived for selecting the values of their parameters in practice. THEORY: We prove that, unlike their earlier versions, the two new LZ-based estimators are universally consistent, that is, they converge to the entropy rate for every finite-valued, stationary and ergodic process. An effective method is derived for the accurate approximation of the entropy rate of a finite-state hidden Markov model (HMM) with known distribution. Heuristic calculations are presented and approximate formulas are derived for evaluating the bias and the standard error of each estimator. SIMULATION: All estimators are applied to a wide range of data generated by numerous different processes with varying degrees of dependence and memory. The main conclusions drawn from these experiments include: (i) For all estimators considered, the main source of error is the bias. (ii) The CTW method is repeatedly and consistently seen to provide the most accurate results. (iii) The performance of the LZ-based estimators is often comparable to that of the plug-in method. (iv) The main drawback of the plug-in method is its computational inefficiency; with small word-lengths it fails to detect longer-range structure in the data, and with longer word-lengths the empirical distribution is severely undersampled, leading to large biases.

Expert panel on practice patterns in the management of cow's milk protein allergy and associated economic burden of disease on health service in Turkey.

PubMed

Sekerel, Bulent Enis; Seyhun, Oznur

2017-09-01

To evaluate practice patterns in the management of cow's milk protein allergy (CMPA) and associated economic burden of disease on health service in Turkey. This study was based on experts' views on the practice patterns in management of CMPA manifesting with either proctocolitis or eczema symptoms and, thereby, aimed to estimate economic burden of CMPA. Practice patterns were determined via patient flow charts developed by experts using the modified Delphi method for CMPA presented with proctocolitis and eczema. Per patient total 2-year direct medical costs were calculated, including cost items of physician visits, laboratory tests, and treatment. According to the consensus opinion of experts, 2-year total direct medical cost from a payer perspective and societal perspective was calculated to be $US2,116.05 and $US2,435.84, respectively, in an infant with CMPA presenting with proctocolitis symptoms, and $US4,001.65 and $US4,828.90, respectively, in an infant with CMPA presenting with eczema symptoms. Clinical nutrition was the primary cost driver that accounted for 89-92% of 2-year total direct medical costs, while the highest total direct medical cost estimated from a payer perspective and societal perspective was noted for the management of an exclusively formula-fed infant presenting either with proctocolitis ($US3,743.85 and $US4,025.63, respectively) or eczema ($US6,854.10 and $US7,917.30, respectively). The first line use of amino acid based formula (AAF) was associated with total direct cost increment $US1,848.08 and $US3,444.52 in the case of proctocolitis and eczema, respectively. Certain limitations to this study should be considered. First, being focused only on direct costs, the lack of data on indirect costs or intangible costs of illness seems to be a major limitation of the present study, which likely results in a downward bias in the estimates of the economic cost of CMPA. Second, given the limited number of studies concerning epidemiology and practice patterns in CMPA in Turkey, use of expert clinical opinion of the panel members rather than real-life data on practice patterns that were used to identify direct medical costs might raise a concern with the validity and reliability of the data. Also, while this was a three-step study with six experts included in the first stage (developing local guidelines for diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up of infants with CMPA in Turkey) and 410 pediatricians included in the second stage (a cross-sectional questionnaire-survey to determine pediatricians' awareness and practice of CMPA in infants and children), only four members were included in the present Delphi panel, which allows a limited discussion. Third, lack of sensitivity analyses and exclusion of indirect costs and costs related to alterations in quality of life, behavior of infants, and general well-being of infants and their parents from the cost-analysis seems to be another limitation that may have caused under-estimation of relative cost-effectiveness of the formulae. Fourth, calculation of costs per local guidelines rather than real-life practice patterns is another limitation that, otherwise, would extend the knowledge achieved in the current study. Notwithstanding these limitations, the present expert panel provided practice patterns in the management of CMPA and an estimate of the associated costs, depending on the symptom profile at initial admission for the first time in Turkey. In conclusion, in providing the first health economic data on CMPA in Turkey, the findings revealed that CMPA imposes a substantial burden on the Turkish healthcare system from both a payer perspective and societal perspective, and indicated clinical nutrition as a primary cost driver. Management of infants presenting with eczema, exclusively formula-fed infants, and first line use of AAF were associated with higher estimates for 2-year direct medical costs.

Hierarchical graphical-based human pose estimation via local multi-resolution convolutional neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Aichun; Wang, Tian; Snoussi, Hichem

2018-03-01

This paper addresses the problems of the graphical-based human pose estimation in still images, including the diversity of appearances and confounding background clutter. We present a new architecture for estimating human pose using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). Firstly, a Relative Mixture Deformable Model (RMDM) is defined by each pair of connected parts to compute the relative spatial information in the graphical model. Secondly, a Local Multi-Resolution Convolutional Neural Network (LMR-CNN) is proposed to train and learn the multi-scale representation of each body parts by combining different levels of part context. Thirdly, a LMR-CNN based hierarchical model is defined to explore the context information of limb parts. Finally, the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed deep learning approach for human pose estimation.

A revised energy-balance framework for the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessler, A. E.

2017-12-01

Some of the most important conclusions of climate science are based on energy balance calculations, in which solar energy absorbed by the Earth system is set equal to infrared energy radiated to space. Traditionally, energy radiated to space is assumed to be proportional to surface temperature. We show here problems with this framework, including potential biases in estimates of climate sensitivity based on the 20th-century historical record. This could potentially explain why estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) using observations over the 20th century yield values lower than other estimates. We then present a modified version of the energy balance framework in which energy radiated to space is assumed to be proportional to tropical atmospheric temperature. We use this new framework to estimate ECS and obtain an estimate of 3°C, with a likely range (66% confidence interval) of 2.2-4.1°C.

Using groundwater levels to estimate recharge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Healy, R.W.; Cook, P.G.

2002-01-01

Accurate estimation of groundwater recharge is extremely important for proper management of groundwater systems. Many different approaches exist for estimating recharge. This paper presents a review of methods that are based on groundwater-level data. The water-table fluctuation method may be the most widely used technique for estimating recharge; it requires knowledge of specific yield and changes in water levels over time. Advantages of this approach include its simplicity and an insensitivity to the mechanism by which water moves through the unsaturated zone. Uncertainty in estimates generated by this method relate to the limited accuracy with which specific yield can be determined and to the extent to which assumptions inherent in the method are valid. Other methods that use water levels (mostly based on the Darcy equation) are also described. The theory underlying the methods is explained. Examples from the literature are used to illustrate applications of the different methods.

Estimating effect of environmental contaminants on women's subfecundity for the MoBa study data with an outcome-dependent sampling scheme

PubMed Central

Ding, Jieli; Zhou, Haibo; Liu, Yanyan; Cai, Jianwen; Longnecker, Matthew P.

2014-01-01

Motivated by the need from our on-going environmental study in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort (MoBa) study, we consider an outcome-dependent sampling (ODS) scheme for failure-time data with censoring. Like the case-cohort design, the ODS design enriches the observed sample by selectively including certain failure subjects. We present an estimated maximum semiparametric empirical likelihood estimation (EMSELE) under the proportional hazards model framework. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator were derived. Simulation studies were conducted to evaluate the small-sample performance of our proposed method. Our analyses show that the proposed estimator and design is more efficient than the current default approach and other competing approaches. Applying the proposed approach with the data set from the MoBa study, we found a significant effect of an environmental contaminant on fecundability. PMID:24812419

Estimating the parasitaemia of Plasmodium falciparum: experience from a national EQA scheme

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background To examine performance of the identification and estimation of percentage parasitaemia of Plasmodium falciparum in stained blood films distributed in the UK National External Quality Assessment Scheme (UKNEQAS) Blood Parasitology Scheme. Methods Analysis of performance for the diagnosis and estimation of the percentage parasitaemia of P. falciparum in Giemsa-stained thin blood films was made over a 15-year period to look for trends in performance. Results An average of 25% of participants failed to estimate the percentage parasitaemia, 17% overestimated and 8% underestimated, whilst 5% misidentified the malaria species present. Conclusions Although the results achieved by participants for other blood parasites have shown an overall improvement, the level of performance for estimation of the parasitaemia of P. falciparum remains unchanged over 15 years. Possible reasons include incorrect calculation, not examining the correct part of the film and not examining an adequate number of microscope fields. PMID:24261625

Assessing Spurious Interaction Effects in Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harring, Jeffrey R.; Weiss, Brandi A.; Li, Ming

2015-01-01

Several studies have stressed the importance of simultaneously estimating interaction and quadratic effects in multiple regression analyses, even if theory only suggests an interaction effect should be present. Specifically, past studies suggested that failing to simultaneously include quadratic effects when testing for interaction effects could…

Learning and Teaching Measurement (2003 Yearbook)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clements, Douglas H., Ed.

2003-01-01

Measurement can develop in the earliest years from children's experience, and it readily lends itself to real-world application. Focusing on research and practice, NCTM's 2003 Yearbook presents current thinking about the learning and teaching of measurement, including students' understanding, the mathematics of measurement, estimation and…

DISTRIBUTION AND QUALITY OF SEAGRASS MEADOWS IN THE PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract for oral presentation: Seagrass meadows have 22 ecological benefits and have an estimated value of $20,500 per acre in Florida. Seagrass meadows support a variety of marine life that includes macroalgae (148 species), epiphytes (1 13 species), macroinvertebrates (230 spe...

Evaluating AIDS Prevention: Contributions of Multiple Disciplines.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leviton, Laura C., Ed.; And Others

1990-01-01

Seven essays on efforts of evaluate prevention programs aimed at the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) are presented. Topics include public health psychology, mathematical models of epidemiology, estimates of incubation periods, ethnographic evaluations of AIDS prevention programs, an AIDS education model, theory-based evaluation, and…

The Rights of Homeless Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strong, Penny

This booklet presents information concerning homelessness and the education of homeless children nationwide and in Illinois. Estimates of the number of homeless children vary widely. Reasons for homeless children's failure to attend school include school residency requirements, delays in transfer of documents, and lack of transportation. The…

Financing Medical Education, 1982-1983.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Terrell, Charles; And Others

Information is presented on medical student financial aid programs and factors that should be addressed by the professional premedical/medical school advisor or the student about to enter medical school. Topics include the following: cost estimates; financial need and assistance; student expenses; purpose of financial assistance; applications…

Quantifying variation in speciation and extinction rates with clade data.

PubMed

Paradis, Emmanuel; Tedesco, Pablo A; Hugueny, Bernard

2013-12-01

High-level phylogenies are very common in evolutionary analyses, although they are often treated as incomplete data. Here, we provide statistical tools to analyze what we name "clade data," which are the ages of clades together with their numbers of species. We develop a general approach for the statistical modeling of variation in speciation and extinction rates, including temporal variation, unknown variation, and linear and nonlinear modeling. We show how this approach can be generalized to a wide range of situations, including testing the effects of life-history traits and environmental variables on diversification rates. We report the results of an extensive simulation study to assess the performance of some statistical tests presented here as well as of the estimators of speciation and extinction rates. These latter results suggest the possibility to estimate correctly extinction rate in the absence of fossils. An example with data on fish is presented. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Space shuttle propulsion estimation development verification, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogers, Robert M.

1989-01-01

The results of the Propulsion Estimation Development Verification are summarized. A computer program developed under a previous contract (NAS8-35324) was modified to include improved models for the Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) internal ballistics, the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) power coefficient model, the vehicle dynamics using quaternions, and an improved Kalman filter algorithm based on the U-D factorized algorithm. As additional output, the estimated propulsion performances, for each device are computed with the associated 1-sigma bounds. The outputs of the estimation program are provided in graphical plots. An additional effort was expended to examine the use of the estimation approach to evaluate single engine test data. In addition to the propulsion estimation program PFILTER, a program was developed to produce a best estimate of trajectory (BET). The program LFILTER, also uses the U-D factorized algorithm form of the Kalman filter as in the propulsion estimation program PFILTER. The necessary definitions and equations explaining the Kalman filtering approach for the PFILTER program, the models used for this application for dynamics and measurements, program description, and program operation are presented.

The Solar Neighborhood. XXVII. Discovery of New Proper Motion Stars with μ >= 0farcs18 yr-1 in the Southern Sky with 16.5 < R 59F <= 18.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyd, Mark R.; Henry, Todd J.; Jao, Wei-Chun; Subasavage, John P.; Hambly, Nigel C.

2011-09-01

Here we present 1584 new southern proper motion systems with μ >= 0farcs18 yr-1 and 16.5 > R 59F >= 18.0. This search complements the six previous SuperCOSMOS-RECONS (SCR) proper motion searches of the southern sky for stars within the same proper motion range, but with R 59F <= 16.5. As in previous papers, we present distance estimates for these systems and find that three systems are estimated to be within 25 pc, including one, SCR 1546-5534, possibly within the RECONS 10 pc horizon at 6.7 pc, making it the second nearest discovery of the searches. We find 97 white dwarf candidates with distance estimates between 10 and 120 pc, as well as 557 cool subdwarf candidates. The subdwarfs found in this paper make up nearly half of the subdwarf systems reported from our SCR searches and are significantly redder than those discovered thus far. The SCR searches have now found 155 red dwarfs estimated to be within 25 pc, including 10 within 10 pc. In addition, 143 white dwarf candidates and 1155 cool subdwarf candidates have been discovered. The 1584 systems reported here augment the sample of 4724 systems previously discovered in our SCR searches and imply that additional systems fainter than R 59F = 18.0 are yet to be discovered.

Probability based remaining capacity estimation using data-driven and neural network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yujie; Yang, Duo; Zhang, Xu; Chen, Zonghai

2016-05-01

Since large numbers of lithium-ion batteries are composed in pack and the batteries are complex electrochemical devices, their monitoring and safety concerns are key issues for the applications of battery technology. An accurate estimation of battery remaining capacity is crucial for optimization of the vehicle control, preventing battery from over-charging and over-discharging and ensuring the safety during its service life. The remaining capacity estimation of a battery includes the estimation of state-of-charge (SOC) and state-of-energy (SOE). In this work, a probability based adaptive estimator is presented to obtain accurate and reliable estimation results for both SOC and SOE. For the SOC estimation, an n ordered RC equivalent circuit model is employed by combining an electrochemical model to obtain more accurate voltage prediction results. For the SOE estimation, a sliding window neural network model is proposed to investigate the relationship between the terminal voltage and the model inputs. To verify the accuracy and robustness of the proposed model and estimation algorithm, experiments under different dynamic operation current profiles are performed on the commercial 1665130-type lithium-ion batteries. The results illustrate that accurate and robust estimation can be obtained by the proposed method.

Estimating Escherichia coli loads in streams based on various physical, chemical, and biological factors

PubMed Central

Dwivedi, Dipankar; Mohanty, Binayak P.; Lesikar, Bruce J.

2013-01-01

Microbes have been identified as a major contaminant of water resources. Escherichia coli (E. coli) is a commonly used indicator organism. It is well recognized that the fate of E. coli in surface water systems is governed by multiple physical, chemical, and biological factors. The aim of this work is to provide insight into the physical, chemical, and biological factors along with their interactions that are critical in the estimation of E. coli loads in surface streams. There are various models to predict E. coli loads in streams, but they tend to be system or site specific or overly complex without enhancing our understanding of these factors. Hence, based on available data, a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) is presented for estimating E. coli loads based on physical, chemical, and biological factors in streams. The BNN has the dual advantage of overcoming the absence of quality data (with regards to consistency in data) and determination of mechanistic model parameters by employing a probabilistic framework. This study evaluates whether the BNN model can be an effective alternative tool to mechanistic models for E. coli loads estimation in streams. For this purpose, a comparison with a traditional model (LOADEST, USGS) is conducted. The models are compared for estimated E. coli loads based on available water quality data in Plum Creek, Texas. All the model efficiency measures suggest that overall E. coli loads estimations by the BNN model are better than the E. coli loads estimations by the LOADEST model on all the three occasions (three-fold cross validation). Thirteen factors were used for estimating E. coli loads with the exhaustive feature selection technique, which indicated that six of thirteen factors are important for estimating E. coli loads. Physical factors included temperature and dissolved oxygen; chemical factors include phosphate and ammonia; biological factors include suspended solids and chlorophyll. The results highlight that the LOADEST model estimates E. coli loads better in the smaller ranges, whereas the BNN model estimates E. coli loads better in the higher ranges. Hence, the BNN model can be used to design targeted monitoring programs and implement regulatory standards through TMDL programs. PMID:24511166

What can we learn about Mars from satellite magnetic field measurements?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morschhauser, A.; Mittelholz, A.; Thomas, P.; Vervelidou, F.; Grott, M.; Johnson, C.; Lesur, V.; Lillis, R. J.

2017-12-01

The Mars orbiters MGS and MAVEN provide vector magnetic field data for Mars at a variety of altitudes, locations, and local times. In spite of the abundance of data, there are many open questions concerning the crustal magnetic field of Mars. In this contribution, we present our efforts to estimate the shutdown time of the Martian core dynamo and to estimate Martian paleopole locations, using magnetic field satellite data and models derived from these data [1]. Models are primarily based on MGS data, and we shortly present our recent advances to include MAVEN data. There exists some controversy concerning the timing of the Martian core dynamo shutdown [e.g., 2-5]. We address this question by studying the so-called visible magnetization [6-7] of impact craters larger than 400 km in diameter, and conclude that the dynamo ceased to operate in the Noachian period [8]. Further, paleopole locations have been used to constrain the dynamics of the Martian core dynamo [e.g. 4-5, 9]. However, such estimates are limited by the inherent non-uniqueness of inferring magnetization from magnetic field measurements. Here, we discuss how estimated paleopoles are influenced by this non-uniqueness and the limited signal-to-noise ratio of satellite measurements [6]. Furthermore, we discuss how paleopole locations may still be obtained from satellite magnetic field measurements. In this context, we present some new paleopole estimates for Mars including estimates of uncertainties. References: [1] A. Morschhauser et al. (2014), JGR, doi: 10.1002/2013JE004555 [2] R.J. Lillis et al. (2015), JGR, doi: 10.1002/2014je004774 [3] L.L. Hood et al. (2010), Icarus, doi: 10.1016/j.icarus.2010.01.009 [4] C. Milbury et al. (2012), JGR, doi: 10.1029/2012JE004099 [5] B. Langlais and M. Purucker (2007), PSS, 10.1016/j.pss.2006.03.008 [6] F. Vervelidou et al., On the accuracy of paleopole estimations from magnetic field measurements, GJI, under revision 2017 [7] D. Gubbins et al. (2011), GJI, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05153.x [8] B. Langlais and M. Purucker (2007), PSS, 10.1016/j.pss.2006.03.008 [8] F. Vervelidou et al., Constraining the date of the martian dynamo shutdown by means of craters' magnetization signatures, JGR, submitted 2017 [9] J. Arkani-Hamed and D. Boutin (2004), JGR, 10.1029/2003JE002229

Criterion-Related Validity of Sit-and-Reach Tests for Estimating Hamstring and Lumbar Extensibility: a Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Mayorga-Vega, Daniel; Merino-Marban, Rafael; Viciana, Jesús

2014-01-01

The main purpose of the present meta-analysis was to examine the scientific literature on the criterion-related validity of sit-and-reach tests for estimating hamstring and lumbar extensibility. For this purpose relevant studies were searched from seven electronic databases dated up through December 2012. Primary outcomes of criterion-related validity were Pearson´s zero-order correlation coefficients (r) between sit-and-reach tests and hamstrings and/or lumbar extensibility criterion measures. Then, from the included studies, the Hunter- Schmidt´s psychometric meta-analysis approach was conducted to estimate population criterion- related validity of sit-and-reach tests. Firstly, the corrected correlation mean (rp), unaffected by statistical artefacts (i.e., sampling error and measurement error), was calculated separately for each sit-and-reach test. Subsequently, the three potential moderator variables (sex of participants, age of participants, and level of hamstring extensibility) were examined by a partially hierarchical analysis. Of the 34 studies included in the present meta-analysis, 99 correlations values across eight sit-and-reach tests and 51 across seven sit-and-reach tests were retrieved for hamstring and lumbar extensibility, respectively. The overall results showed that all sit-and-reach tests had a moderate mean criterion-related validity for estimating hamstring extensibility (rp = 0.46-0.67), but they had a low mean for estimating lumbar extensibility (rp = 0. 16-0.35). Generally, females, adults and participants with high levels of hamstring extensibility tended to have greater mean values of criterion-related validity for estimating hamstring extensibility. When the use of angular tests is limited such as in a school setting or in large scale studies, scientists and practitioners could use the sit-and-reach tests as a useful alternative for hamstring extensibility estimation, but not for estimating lumbar extensibility. Key Points Overall sit-and-reach tests have a moderate mean criterion-related validity for estimating hamstring extensibility, but they have a low mean validity for estimating lumbar extensibility. Among all the sit-and-reach test protocols, the Classic sit-and-reach test seems to be the best option to estimate hamstring extensibility. End scores (e.g., the Classic sit-and-reach test) are a better indicator of hamstring extensibility than the modifications that incorporate fingers-to-box distance (e.g., the Modified sit-and-reach test). When angular tests such as straight leg raise or knee extension tests cannot be used, sit-and-reach tests seem to be a useful field test alternative to estimate hamstring extensibility, but not to estimate lumbar extensibility. PMID:24570599

The Ninth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey: First Spectroscopic Data from the SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahn, Christopher P.; Alexandroff, Rachael; Allende Prieto, Carlos

2012-11-19

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey III (SDSS-III) presents the first spectroscopic data from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). This ninth data release (DR9) of the SDSS project includes 535,995 new galaxy spectra (median z=0.52), 102,100 new quasar spectra (median z=2.32), and 90,897 new stellar spectra, along with the data presented in previous data releases. These spectra were obtained with the new BOSS spectrograph and were taken between 2009 December and 2011 July. In addition, the stellar parameters pipeline, which determines radial velocities, surface temperatures, surface gravities, and metallicities of stars, has been updated and refined with improvements in temperaturemore » estimates for stars with T_eff<5000 K and in metallicity estimates for stars with [Fe/H]>-0.5. DR9 includes new stellar parameters for all stars presented in DR8, including stars from SDSS-I and II, as well as those observed as part of the SDSS-III Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration-2 (SEGUE-2). The astrometry error introduced in the DR8 imaging catalogs has been corrected in the DR9 data products. The next data release for SDSS-III will be in Summer 2013, which will present the first data from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) along with another year of data from BOSS, followed by the final SDSS-III data release in December 2014.« less

Abort Trigger False Positive and False Negative Analysis Methodology for Threshold-Based Abort Detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melcher, Kevin J.; Cruz, Jose A.; Johnson Stephen B.; Lo, Yunnhon

2015-01-01

This paper describes a quantitative methodology for bounding the false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) probabilities associated with a human-rated launch vehicle abort trigger (AT) that includes sensor data qualification (SDQ). In this context, an AT is a hardware and software mechanism designed to detect the existence of a specific abort condition. Also, SDQ is an algorithmic approach used to identify sensor data suspected of being corrupt so that suspect data does not adversely affect an AT's detection capability. The FP and FN methodologies presented here were developed to support estimation of the probabilities of loss of crew and loss of mission for the Space Launch System (SLS) which is being developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The paper provides a brief overview of system health management as being an extension of control theory; and describes how ATs and the calculation of FP and FN probabilities relate to this theory. The discussion leads to a detailed presentation of the FP and FN methodology and an example showing how the FP and FN calculations are performed. This detailed presentation includes a methodology for calculating the change in FP and FN probabilities that result from including SDQ in the AT architecture. To avoid proprietary and sensitive data issues, the example incorporates a mixture of open literature and fictitious reliability data. Results presented in the paper demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach in providing quantitative estimates that bound the probability of a FP or FN abort determination.

Methodological Approaches for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Russell

This report presents a comprehensive framework for estimating the benefits and costs of Smart Grid projects and a step-by-step approach for making these estimates. The framework identifies the basic categories of benefits, the beneficiaries of these benefits, and the Smart Grid functionalities that lead to different benefits and proposes ways to estimate these benefits, including their monetization. The report covers cost-effectiveness evaluation, uncertainty, and issues in estimating baseline conditions against which a project would be compared. The report also suggests metrics suitable for describing principal characteristics of a modern Smart Grid to which a project can contribute. This first sectionmore » of the report presents background information on the motivation for the report and its purpose. Section 2 introduces the methodological framework, focusing on the definition of benefits and a sequential, logical process for estimating them. Beginning with the Smart Grid technologies and functions of a project, it maps these functions to the benefits they produce. Section 3 provides a hypothetical example to illustrate the approach. Section 4 describes each of the 10 steps in the approach. Section 5 covers issues related to estimating benefits of the Smart Grid. Section 6 summarizes the next steps. The methods developed in this study will help improve future estimates - both retrospective and prospective - of the benefits of Smart Grid investments. These benefits, including those to consumers, society in general, and utilities, can then be weighed against the investments. Such methods would be useful in total resource cost tests and in societal versions of such tests. As such, the report will be of interest not only to electric utilities, but also to a broad constituency of stakeholders. Significant aspects of the methodology were used by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop its methods for estimating the benefits and costs of its renewable and distributed systems integration demonstration projects as well as its Smart Grid Investment Grant projects and demonstration projects funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). The goal of this report, which was cofunded by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and DOE, is to present a comprehensive set of methods for estimating the benefits and costs of Smart Grid projects. By publishing this report, EPRI seeks to contribute to the development of methods that will establish the benefits associated with investments in Smart Grid technologies. EPRI does not endorse the contents of this report or make any representations as to the accuracy and appropriateness of its contents. The purpose of this report is to present a methodological framework that will provide a standardized approach for estimating the benefits and costs of Smart Grid demonstration projects. The framework also has broader application to larger projects, such as those funded under the ARRA. Moreover, with additional development, it will provide the means for extrapolating the results of pilots and trials to at-scale investments in Smart Grid technologies. The framework was developed by a panel whose members provided a broad range of expertise.« less

The Economic Burden of Child Maltreatment in the United States And Implications for Prevention

PubMed Central

Fang, Xiangming; Brown, Derek S.; Florence, Curtis; Mercy, James A.

2013-01-01

Objectives To present new estimates of the average lifetime costs per child maltreatment victim and aggregate lifetime costs for all new child maltreatment cases incurred in 2008 using an incidence-based approach. Methods This study used the best available secondary data to develop cost per case estimates. For each cost category, the paper used attributable costs whenever possible. For those categories that attributable cost data were not available, costs were estimated as the product of incremental effect of child maltreatment on a specific outcome multiplied by the estimated cost associated with that outcome. The estimate of the aggregate lifetime cost of child maltreatment in 2008 was obtained by multiplying per-victim lifetime cost estimates by the estimated cases of new child maltreatment in 2008. Results The estimated average lifetime cost per victim of nonfatal child maltreatment is $210,012 in 2010 dollars, including $32,648 in childhood health care costs; $10,530 in adult medical costs; $144,360 in productivity losses; $7,728 in child welfare costs; $6,747 in criminal justice costs; and $7,999 in special education costs. The estimated average lifetime cost per death is $1,272,900, including $14,100 in medical costs and $1,258,800 in productivity losses. The total lifetime economic burden resulting from new cases of fatal and nonfatal child maltreatment in the United States in 2008 is approximately $124 billion. In sensitivity analysis, the total burden is estimated to be as large as $585 billion. Conclusions Compared with other health problems, the burden of child maltreatment is substantial, indicating the importance of prevention efforts to address the high prevalence of child maltreatment. PMID:22300910

A normative price for energy from an electricity generation system: An Owner-dependent Methodology for Energy Generation (system) Assessment (OMEGA). Volume 2: Derivation of system energy price equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamberlain, R. G.; Mcmaster, K. M.

1981-01-01

The methodology presented is a derivation of the utility owned solar electric systems model. The net present value of the system is determined by consideration of all financial benefits and costs including a specified return on investment. Life cycle costs, life cycle revenues, and residual system values are obtained. Break-even values of system parameters are estimated by setting the net present value to zero.

Static Strength Characteristics of Mechanically Fastened Composite Joints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox, D. E.; Swaim, K. W.

1999-01-01

The analysis of mechanically fastened composite joints presents a great challenge to structural analysts because of the large number of parameters that influence strength. These parameters include edge distance, width, bolt diameter, laminate thickness, ply orientation, and bolt torque. The research presented in this report investigates the influence of some of these parameters through testing and analysis. A methodology is presented for estimating the strength of the bolt-hole based on classical lamination theory using the Tsai-Hill failure criteria and typical bolthole bearing analytical methods.

Body mass and stature estimation based on the first metatarsal in humans.

PubMed

De Groote, Isabelle; Humphrey, Louise T

2011-04-01

Archaeological assemblages often lack the complete long bones needed to estimate stature and body mass. The most accurate estimates of body mass and stature are produced using femoral head diameter and femur length. Foot bones including the first metatarsal preserve relatively well in a range of archaeological contexts. In this article we present regression equations using the first metatarsal to estimate femoral head diameter, femoral length, and body mass in a diverse human sample. The skeletal sample comprised 87 individuals (Andamanese, Australasians, Africans, Native Americans, and British). Results show that all first metatarsal measurements correlate moderately to highly (r = 0.62-0.91) with femoral head diameter and length. The proximal articular dorsoplantar diameter is the best single measurement to predict both femoral dimensions. Percent standard errors of the estimate are below 5%. Equations using two metatarsal measurements show a small increase in accuracy. Direct estimations of body mass (calculated from measured femoral head diameter using previously published equations) have an error of just over 7%. No direct stature estimation equations were derived due to the varied linear body proportions represented in the sample. The equations were tested on a sample of 35 individuals from Christ Church Spitalfields. Percentage differences in estimated and measured femoral head diameter and length were less than 1%. This study demonstrates that it is feasible to use the first metatarsal in the estimation of body mass and stature. The equations presented here are particularly useful for assemblages where the long bones are either missing or fragmented, and enable estimation of these fundamental population parameters in poorly preserved assemblages. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Reconstructive dosimetry for cutaneous radiation syndrome

PubMed Central

Lima, C.M.A.; Lima, A.R.; Degenhardt, Ä.L.; Valverde, N.J.; Da Silva, F.C.A.

2015-01-01

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a relatively significant number of radiological accidents have occurred in recent years mainly because of the practices referred to as potentially high-risk activities, such as radiotherapy, large irradiators and industrial radiography, especially in gammagraphy assays. In some instances, severe injuries have occurred in exposed persons due to high radiation doses. In industrial radiography, 80 cases involving a total of 120 radiation workers, 110 members of the public including 12 deaths have been recorded up to 2014. Radiological accidents in industrial practices in Brazil have mainly resulted in development of cutaneous radiation syndrome (CRS) in hands and fingers. Brazilian data include 5 serious cases related to industrial gammagraphy, affecting 7 radiation workers and 19 members of the public; however, none of them were fatal. Some methods of reconstructive dosimetry have been used to estimate the radiation dose to assist in prescribing medical treatment. The type and development of cutaneous manifestations in the exposed areas of a person is the first achievable gross dose estimation. This review article presents the state-of-the-art reconstructive dosimetry methods enabling estimation of local radiation doses and provides guidelines for medical handling of the exposed individuals. The review also presents the Chilean and Brazilian radiological accident cases to highlight the importance of reconstructive dosimetry. PMID:26445332

Technical notes and correspondence: Stochastic robustness of linear time-invariant control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stengel, Robert F.; Ray, Laura R.

1991-01-01

A simple numerical procedure for estimating the stochastic robustness of a linear time-invariant system is described. Monte Carlo evaluations of the system's eigenvalues allows the probability of instability and the related stochastic root locus to be estimated. This analysis approach treats not only Gaussian parameter uncertainties but non-Gaussian cases, including uncertain-but-bounded variation. Confidence intervals for the scalar probability of instability address computational issues inherent in Monte Carlo simulation. Trivial extensions of the procedure admit consideration of alternate discriminants; thus, the probabilities that stipulated degrees of instability will be exceeded or that closed-loop roots will leave desirable regions can also be estimated. Results are particularly amenable to graphical presentation.

Quantum chemical approach to estimating the thermodynamics of metabolic reactions.

PubMed

Jinich, Adrian; Rappoport, Dmitrij; Dunn, Ian; Sanchez-Lengeling, Benjamin; Olivares-Amaya, Roberto; Noor, Elad; Even, Arren Bar; Aspuru-Guzik, Alán

2014-11-12

Thermodynamics plays an increasingly important role in modeling and engineering metabolism. We present the first nonempirical computational method for estimating standard Gibbs reaction energies of metabolic reactions based on quantum chemistry, which can help fill in the gaps in the existing thermodynamic data. When applied to a test set of reactions from core metabolism, the quantum chemical approach is comparable in accuracy to group contribution methods for isomerization and group transfer reactions and for reactions not including multiply charged anions. The errors in standard Gibbs reaction energy estimates are correlated with the charges of the participating molecules. The quantum chemical approach is amenable to systematic improvements and holds potential for providing thermodynamic data for all of metabolism.

An atlas of monthly mean distributions of GEOSAT sea surface height, SSMI surface wind speed, AVHRR/2 sea surface temperature, and ECMWF surface wind components during 1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halpern, D.; Zlotnicki, V.; Newman, J.; Brown, O.; Wentz, F.

1991-01-01

Monthly mean global distributions for 1988 are presented with a common color scale and geographical map. Distributions are included for sea surface height variation estimated from GEOSAT; surface wind speed estimated from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program spacecraft; sea surface temperature estimated from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer on NOAA spacecrafts; and the Cartesian components of the 10m height wind vector computed by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting. Charts of monthly mean value, sampling distribution, and standard deviation value are displayed. Annual mean distributions are displayed.

Stochastic estimation of human shoulder impedance with robots: an experimental design.

PubMed

Park, Kyungbin; Chang, Pyung Hun

2011-01-01

Previous studies assumed the shoulder as a hinge joint during human arm impedance measurement. This is obviously a vast simplification since the shoulder is a complex of several joints with multiple degrees of freedom. In the present work, a practical methodology for more general and realistic estimation of human shoulder impedance is proposed and validated with a spring array. It includes a gravity compensation scheme, which is developed and used for the experiments with a spatial three degrees of freedom PUMA-type robot. The experimental results were accurate and reliable, and thus it has shown a strong potential of the proposed methodology in the estimation of human shoulder impedance. © 2011 IEEE

Towards an Early Software Effort Estimation Based on Functional and Non-Functional Requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassab, Mohamed; Daneva, Maya; Ormandjieva, Olga

The increased awareness of the non-functional requirements as a key to software project and product success makes explicit the need to include them in any software project effort estimation activity. However, the existing approaches to defining size-based effort relationships still pay insufficient attention to this need. This paper presents a flexible, yet systematic approach to the early requirements-based effort estimation, based on Non-Functional Requirements ontology. It complementarily uses one standard functional size measurement model and a linear regression technique. We report on a case study which illustrates the application of our solution approach in context and also helps evaluate our experiences in using it.

Instrumental Variable Methods for Continuous Outcomes That Accommodate Nonignorable Missing Baseline Values.

PubMed

Ertefaie, Ashkan; Flory, James H; Hennessy, Sean; Small, Dylan S

2017-06-15

Instrumental variable (IV) methods provide unbiased treatment effect estimation in the presence of unmeasured confounders under certain assumptions. To provide valid estimates of treatment effect, treatment effect confounders that are associated with the IV (IV-confounders) must be included in the analysis, and not including observations with missing values may lead to bias. Missing covariate data are particularly problematic when the probability that a value is missing is related to the value itself, which is known as nonignorable missingness. In such cases, imputation-based methods are biased. Using health-care provider preference as an IV method, we propose a 2-step procedure with which to estimate a valid treatment effect in the presence of baseline variables with nonignorable missing values. First, the provider preference IV value is estimated by performing a complete-case analysis using a random-effects model that includes IV-confounders. Second, the treatment effect is estimated using a 2-stage least squares IV approach that excludes IV-confounders with missing values. Simulation results are presented, and the method is applied to an analysis comparing the effects of sulfonylureas versus metformin on body mass index, where the variables baseline body mass index and glycosylated hemoglobin have missing values. Our result supports the association of sulfonylureas with weight gain. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Potential mineral resources, Payette National Forest, Idaho: description and probabilistic estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Johnson, Bruce R.; Cookro, Theresa M.; Lund, Karen; Watts, Kenneth C.; King, Harley D.; Kleinkopf, Merlin D.; Pitkin, James A.; Sanchez, J. David; Causey, J. Douglas

1998-01-01

The Payette National Forest (PNF), in west-central Idaho, is geologically diverse and contains a wide variety of mineral resources. Mineral deposit types are grouped into locatable, leasable, and salable categories. The PNF has substantial past production and identified resources of locatable commodities, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, tungsten, antimony, mercury, and opal. Minor lignitic coal is the only leasable mineral resource known to be present in the PNF. Resources of salable commodities in the PNF include sand-and-gravel, basalt for crushed-rock aggregate, and minor gypsum. Locatable mineral resources are geographically divided between eastern and western parts of the PNF. The western PNF lies west of the Riggins-to-Cascade highway (US 95 - Idaho 55), and the eastern PNF is east of that highway. The western and eastern parts of the PNF are geologically distinctive and have different types of locatable mineral deposits, so their locatable mineral resources are described separately. Within the western and eastern parts of the PNF, locatable deposit types generally are described in order of decreasing geologic age. An expert panel delineated tracts considered geologically permissive and (or) favorable for the occurrence of undiscovered mineral deposits of types that are known to be present within or near the PNF. The panel also estimated probabilities for undiscovered deposits, and used numerical simulation, based on tonnage-grade distribution models, to derive estimates of in-situ metals contained. These estimates are summarized in terms of mean and median measures of central tendency. Most grade and tonnage distributions appear to be log-normal, with the median lower than the mean. Inasmuch as the mean is influenced by the largest deposits in the model tonnage-grade distribution, the median provides a lower measure of central tendency and a more conservative estimation of undiscovered resources.

Towards Estimating the Magnitude of Earthquakes from EM Data Collected from the Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heraud, J. A.

2016-12-01

During the past three years, magnetometers deployed in the Peruvian coast have been providing evidence that the ULF pulses received are indeed generated at the subduction or Benioff zone. Such evidence was presented at the AGU 2015 Fall meeting, showing the results of triangulation of pulses from two magnetometers located in the central area of Peru, using data collected during a two-year period. The process has been extended in time, only pulses associated with the occurrence of earthquakes and several pulse parameters have been used to estimate a function relating the magnitude of the earthquake with the value of a function generated with those parameters. The results shown, including an animated data video, are a first approximation towards the estimation of the magnitude of an earthquake about to occur, based on electromagnetic pulses that originated at the subduction zone. During the past three years, magnetometers deployed in the Peruvian coast have been providing evidence that the ULF pulses received are indeed generated at the subduction or Benioff zone. Such evidence was presented at the AGU 2015 Fall meeting, showing the results of triangulation of pulses from two magnetometers located in the central area of Peru, using data collected during a two-year period. The process has been extended in time, only pulses associated with the occurrence of earthquakes have been used and several pulse parameters have been used to estimate a function relating the magnitude of the earthquake with the value of a function generated with those parameters. The results shown, including an animated data video, are a first approximation towards the estimation of the magnitude of an earthquake about to occur, based on electromagnetic pulses that originated at the subduction zone.

A time-and-motion approach to micro-costing of high-throughput genomic assays

PubMed Central

Costa, S.; Regier, D.A.; Meissner, B.; Cromwell, I.; Ben-Neriah, S.; Chavez, E.; Hung, S.; Steidl, C.; Scott, D.W.; Marra, M.A.; Peacock, S.J.; Connors, J.M.

2016-01-01

Background Genomic technologies are increasingly used to guide clinical decision-making in cancer control. Economic evidence about the cost-effectiveness of genomic technologies is limited, in part because of a lack of published comprehensive cost estimates. In the present micro-costing study, we used a time-and-motion approach to derive cost estimates for 3 genomic assays and processes—digital gene expression profiling (gep), fluorescence in situ hybridization (fish), and targeted capture sequencing, including bioinformatics analysis—in the context of lymphoma patient management. Methods The setting for the study was the Department of Lymphoid Cancer Research laboratory at the BC Cancer Agency in Vancouver, British Columbia. Mean per-case hands-on time and resource measurements were determined from a series of direct observations of each assay. Per-case cost estimates were calculated using a bottom-up costing approach, with labour, capital and equipment, supplies and reagents, and overhead costs included. Results The most labour-intensive assay was found to be fish at 258.2 minutes per case, followed by targeted capture sequencing (124.1 minutes per case) and digital gep (14.9 minutes per case). Based on a historical case throughput of 180 cases annually, the mean per-case cost (2014 Canadian dollars) was estimated to be $1,029.16 for targeted capture sequencing and bioinformatics analysis, $596.60 for fish, and $898.35 for digital gep with an 807-gene code set. Conclusions With the growing emphasis on personalized approaches to cancer management, the need for economic evaluations of high-throughput genomic assays is increasing. Through economic modelling and budget-impact analyses, the cost estimates presented here can be used to inform priority-setting decisions about the implementation of such assays in clinical practice. PMID:27803594

Earth resources data analysis program, phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

The efforts and findings of the Earth Resources Data Analysis Program are summarized. Results of a detailed study of the needs of EOD with respect to an applications development system (ADS) for the analysis of remotely sensed data, including an evaluation of four existing systems with respect to these needs are described. Recommendations as to possible courses for EOD to follow to obtain a viable ADS are presented. Algorithmic development comprised of several subtasks is discussed. These subtasks include the following: (1) two algorithms for multivariate density estimation; (2) a data smoothing algorithm; (3) a method for optimally estimating prior probabilities of unclassified data; and (4) further applications of the modified Cholesky decomposition in various calculations. Little effort was expended on task 3, however, two reports were reviewed.

Permeability estimations and frictional flow features passing through porous media comprised of structured microbeads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, C.

2017-12-01

Permeability estimation has been extensively researched in diverse fields; however, methods that suitably consider varying geometries and changes within the flow region, for example, hydraulic fracture closing for several years, are yet to be developed. Therefore, in the present study a new permeability estimation method is presented based on the generalized Darcy's friction flow relation, in particular, by examining frictional flow parameters and characteristics of their variations. For this examination, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of simple hydraulic fractures filled with five layers of structured microbeads and accompanied by geometry changes and flow transitions are performed. Consequently, it was checked whether the main structures and shapes of each flow path are preserved, even for geometry variations within porous media. However, the scarcity and discontinuity of streamlines increase dramatically in the transient- and turbulent-flow regions. The quantitative and analytic examinations of the frictional flow features were also performed. Accordingly, the modified frictional flow parameters were successfully presented as similarity parameters of porous flows. In conclusion, the generalized Darcy's friction flow relation and friction equivalent permeability (FEP) equation were both modified using the similarity parameters. For verification, the FEP values of the other aperture models were estimated and then it was checked whether they agreed well with the original permeability values. Ultimately, the proposed and verified method is expected to efficiently estimate permeability variations in porous media with changing geometric factors and flow regions, including such instances as hydraulic fracture closings.

Estimates of global, regional, and national annual CO{sub 2} emissions from fossil-fuel burning, hydraulic cement production, and gas flaring: 1950--1992

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boden, T.A.; Marland, G.; Andres, R.J.

1995-12-01

This document describes the compilation, content, and format of the most comprehensive C0{sub 2}-emissions database currently available. The database includes global, regional, and national annual estimates of C0{sub 2} emissions resulting from fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing, and gas flaring in oil fields for 1950--92 as well as the energy production, consumption, and trade data used for these estimates. The methods of Marland and Rotty (1983) are used to calculate these emission estimates. For the first time, the methods and data used to calculate CO, emissions from gas flaring are presented. This C0{sub 2}-emissions database is useful for carbon-cycle research, providesmore » estimates of the rate at which fossil-fuel combustion has released C0{sub 2} to the atmosphere, and offers baseline estimates for those countries compiling 1990 C0{sub 2}-emissions inventories.« less

On the representation and estimation of spatial uncertainty. [for mobile robot

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Randall C.; Cheeseman, Peter

1987-01-01

This paper describes a general method for estimating the nominal relationship and expected error (covariance) between coordinate frames representing the relative locations of objects. The frames may be known only indirectly through a series of spatial relationships, each with its associated error, arising from diverse causes, including positioning errors, measurement errors, or tolerances in part dimensions. This estimation method can be used to answer such questions as whether a camera attached to a robot is likely to have a particular reference object in its field of view. The calculated estimates agree well with those from an independent Monte Carlo simulation. The method makes it possible to decide in advance whether an uncertain relationship is known accurately enough for some task and, if not, how much of an improvement in locational knowledge a proposed sensor will provide. The method presented can be generalized to six degrees of freedom and provides a practical means of estimating the relationships (position and orientation) among objects, as well as estimating the uncertainty associated with the relationships.

Enhanced Performance Controller Design for Stochastic Systems by Adding Extra State Estimation onto the Existing Closed Loop Control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Yuyang; Zhang, Qichun; Wang, Hong

To enhance the performance of the tracking property , this paper presents a novel control algorithm for a class of linear dynamic stochastic systems with unmeasurable states, where the performance enhancement loop is established based on Kalman filter. Without changing the existing closed loop with the PI controller, the compensative controller is designed to minimize the variances of the tracking errors using the estimated states and the propagation of state variances. Moreover, the stability of the closed-loop systems has been analyzed in the mean-square sense. A simulated example is included to show the effectiveness of the presented control algorithm, wheremore » encouraging results have been obtained.« less

Emission measures derived from far ultraviolet spectra of T Tauri stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cram, L. E.; Giampapa, M. S.; Imhoff, C. L.

1980-06-01

Spectroscopic diagnostics based on UV emission line observations have been developed to study the solar chromosphere, transition region, and corona. The atmospheric properties that can be inferred from observations of total line intensities include the temperature, by identifying the ionic species present; the temperature distribution of the emission measure, from the absolute intensities; and the electron density of the source, from line intensity ratios sensitive to the electron density. In the present paper, the temperature distribution of the emission measure is estimated from observations of far UV emission line fluxes of the T Tauri stars, RW Aurigae and RU Lupi, made on the IUE. A crude estimate of the electron density of one star is obtained, using density-sensitive line ratios.

A gamma variate model that includes stretched exponential is a better fit for gastric emptying data from mice

PubMed Central

Bajzer, Željko; Gibbons, Simon J.; Coleman, Heidi D.; Linden, David R.

2015-01-01

Noninvasive breath tests for gastric emptying are important techniques for understanding the changes in gastric motility that occur in disease or in response to drugs. Mice are often used as an animal model; however, the gamma variate model currently used for data analysis does not always fit the data appropriately. The aim of this study was to determine appropriate mathematical models to better fit mouse gastric emptying data including when two peaks are present in the gastric emptying curve. We fitted 175 gastric emptying data sets with two standard models (gamma variate and power exponential), with a gamma variate model that includes stretched exponential and with a proposed two-component model. The appropriateness of the fit was assessed by the Akaike Information Criterion. We found that extension of the gamma variate model to include a stretched exponential improves the fit, which allows for a better estimation of T1/2 and Tlag. When two distinct peaks in gastric emptying are present, a two-component model is required for the most appropriate fit. We conclude that use of a stretched exponential gamma variate model and when appropriate a two-component model will result in a better estimate of physiologically relevant parameters when analyzing mouse gastric emptying data. PMID:26045615

Overview of the Global Nitrous Oxide Budget: The More We Think We Know, the Less We Really Know

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, E. A.

2016-12-01

The N2O budget is balanced in the real world, but our ability to account for past and present sources and sinks remains poor. This is true for both top-down atmospheric inversion models and bottom-up compilations of emission estimates by geographic region, economic sector, land use, and land management. Narrowing uncertainties would improve confidence in budgets and improve targeting of climate change mitigation. Estimates of the atmospheric lifetime of N2O range from 104 to 152 years, resulting in an uncertainty of nearly 5 Tg N2O-N/yr in atmospheric model inversion estimates of global sources. Top-down source estimates are also sensitive to the assumed pre-industrial, quasi-steady-state N2O concentration. However, land-use change and natural climatic variation in the centuries preceding the industrial revolution add uncertainty. While there is agreement that agricultural soils are now the largest single source of anthropogenic N2O emissions, recent estimates of direct emissions from fertilizer and manure application to soils range from 0.66 to 2.5 Tg N2O-N/yr. These discrepancies are due to differences in estimated activity data (application rates), in disaggregation of data by region and crop type, and in linear or nonlinear assumptions for estimating emission factors. Indirect N2O emissions (those occurring in downstream or downwind ecosystems receiving runoff or deposition derived from agricultural sources) have always been poorly constrained and difficult to estimate. It is unclear, for example, whether recent estimates of enhanced N2O emissions from oceans due to N inputs from land are already adequately accounted for by indirect emission estimates or are a previously underestimated source. Tropical deforestation generally results in a brief (months to years) increase in soil N2O emissions, followed by emissions from degraded lands that are lower than those of the original forest. The effect globally is probably a net reduction of soil emissions that should be included in global budgets, but that is poorly quantified and often ignored. Where land use change and management includes fire, pyrogenic emissions are important but still uncertain. N2O soil sinks are small globally, but present an interesting conundrum for our understanding of underlying processes of N2O consumption.

Parameter estimation techniques and application in aircraft flight testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

Technical papers presented at the symposium by selected representatives from industry, universities, and various Air Force, Navy, and NASA installations are given. The topics covered include the newest developments in identification techniques, the most recent flight-test experience, and the projected potential for the near future.

A Computer Program to Evaluate Timber Production Investments Under Uncertainty

Treesearch

Dennis L. Schweitzer

1968-01-01

A computer program has been written in Fortran IV to calculate probability distributions of present worths of investments in timber production. Inputs can include both point and probabilistic estimates of future costs, prices, and yields. Distributions of rates of return can also be constructed.

North Dakota's forests 2005

Treesearch

David E. Haugen; Michael Kangas; Susan J. Crocker; Charles H. Perry; Christopher W. Woodall; Brett J. Butler; Barry T. Wilson; Dan J. Kaisershot

2009-01-01

The first completed annual inventory of North Dakota's forests reports estimates of more than 724,000 acres of forest land. Information about forest attributes and forest health is presented along with information on agents of change including changing land use patterns and the introduction of nonnative plants, insects, and disease.

Connecting Neural Coding to Number Cognition: A Computational Account

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prather, Richard W.

2012-01-01

The current study presents a series of computational simulations that demonstrate how the neural coding of numerical magnitude may influence number cognition and development. This includes behavioral phenomena cataloged in cognitive literature such as the development of numerical estimation and operational momentum. Though neural research has…

Minnesota's forest resources in 2004

Treesearch

Patrick D. Miles; Gary J. Brand; Manfred E. Mielke

2006-01-01

This report presents forest statistics based on the five annual inventory panels measured from 2000 through 2004. Forest area is estimated at 16.2 million acres or 32 percent of the total land area in the State. Important pests in Minnesota forests include the forest tent caterpillar and spruce budworm.

Conceptual design of an in-space cryogenic fluid management facility, executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willen, G. S.; Riemer, D. H.; Hustvedt, D. C.

1981-01-01

The conceptual design of a Spacelab experiment to develop the technology associated with low gravity propellant management is summarized. The preliminary facility definition, conceptual design and design analysis, and facility development plan, including schedule and cost estimates for the facility, are presented.

Mission roles for the solar electric propulsion stage with the space transportation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

A briefing outline is presented of the mission roles for the solar electric propulsion stage (SEPS). Topics outlined include operational considerations and mission characteristics, trade studies and technology assessments influencing SEPS configuration definition, program support requirements, and development and operations cost estimates.

Voluntary Support of Education 1987-1988.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Council for Aid to Education, New York, NY.

The 29th edition of a publication featuring statistics on voluntary support of education is presented. Three sections have the following titles: (1) "Colleges and Universities" (including national estimates of expenditures and voluntary support, and survey results noting voluntary support by type of institution, voluntary support by source,…

COSTS OF BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES AND ASSOCIATED LAND FOR URBAN STORMWATER CONTROL

EPA Science Inventory

The purpose of this paper is to present information on the cost of stormwater pollution control facilities in urban areas, including collection, control, and treatment systems. Information on prior cost studies of control technologies and cost estimating models used in these stu...

Science and Society Test VI: Energy Economics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hafemeister, David W.

1982-01-01

Develops simple numerical estimates to quantify a variety of energy economics issues, including among others, a modified Verhulst equation (considers effect of finite resources on petroleum) for supply/demand economics and a phenomenological model for market penetration also presents an analysis of economic returns of an energy conservation…

In vitro to in vivo extrapolation of hepatic metabolism in fish: An inter-laboratory comparison of in vitro methods - presentation

EPA Science Inventory

Chemical biotransformation represents the largest source of uncertainty in chemical bioaccumulation assessments. Model-based estimates of chemical bioconcentration in fish may be greatly improved by including biotransformation rates, as measured in vitro. Substrate depletion assa...

FRAMES-2.0 Software System: Frames 2.0 Pest Integration (F2PEST)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Castleton, Karl J.; Meyer, Philip D.

2009-06-17

The implementation of the FRAMES 2.0 F2PEST module is described, including requirements, design, and specifications of the software. This module integrates the PEST parameter estimation software within the FRAMES 2.0 environmental modeling framework. A test case is presented.

Green above-stump weights for red oak, red maple and white birch in northern Michigan.

Treesearch

Helmuth M. Steinhilb; Edwin S. Miyata; Thomas R. Crow

1983-01-01

Presents the green weights of the above-stump portion of trees, boles, and residue for red oak, red maple, and white birch in northern Michigan. Estimating equations and green weight tables are included for the tree components of each species.

Space station program phase B definition: Nuclear reactor-powered space station cost and schedules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1971-01-01

Tabulated data are presented on the costs, schedules, and technical characteristics for the space station phases C and D program. The work breakdown structure, schedule data, program ground rules, program costs, cost-estimating rationale, funding schedules, and supporting data are included.

Estimating maneuvers for precise relative orbit determination using GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allende-Alba, Gerardo; Montenbruck, Oliver; Ardaens, Jean-Sébastien; Wermuth, Martin; Hugentobler, Urs

2017-01-01

Precise relative orbit determination is an essential element for the generation of science products from distributed instrumentation of formation flying satellites in low Earth orbit. According to the mission profile, the required formation is typically maintained and/or controlled by executing maneuvers. In order to generate consistent and precise orbit products, a strategy for maneuver handling is mandatory in order to avoid discontinuities or precision degradation before, after and during maneuver execution. Precise orbit determination offers the possibility of maneuver estimation in an adjustment of single-satellite trajectories using GPS measurements. However, a consistent formulation of a precise relative orbit determination scheme requires the implementation of a maneuver estimation strategy which can be used, in addition, to improve the precision of maneuver estimates by drawing upon the use of differential GPS measurements. The present study introduces a method for precise relative orbit determination based on a reduced-dynamic batch processing of differential GPS pseudorange and carrier phase measurements, which includes maneuver estimation as part of the relative orbit adjustment. The proposed method has been validated using flight data from space missions with different rates of maneuvering activity, including the GRACE, TanDEM-X and PRISMA missions. The results show the feasibility of obtaining precise relative orbits without degradation in the vicinity of maneuvers as well as improved maneuver estimates that can be used for better maneuver planning in flight dynamics operations.

A new method for parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamical equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Liu; He, Wen-Ping; Liao, Le-Jian; Wan, Shi-Quan; He, Tao

2015-01-01

Parameter estimation is an important scientific problem in various fields such as chaos control, chaos synchronization and other mathematical models. In this paper, a new method for parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamical equations is proposed based on evolutionary modelling (EM). This will be achieved by utilizing the following characteristics of EM which includes self-organizing, adaptive and self-learning features which are inspired by biological natural selection, and mutation and genetic inheritance. The performance of the new method is demonstrated by using various numerical tests on the classic chaos model—Lorenz equation (Lorenz 1963). The results indicate that the new method can be used for fast and effective parameter estimation irrespective of whether partial parameters or all parameters are unknown in the Lorenz equation. Moreover, the new method has a good convergence rate. Noises are inevitable in observational data. The influence of observational noises on the performance of the presented method has been investigated. The results indicate that the strong noises, such as signal noise ratio (SNR) of 10 dB, have a larger influence on parameter estimation than the relatively weak noises. However, it is found that the precision of the parameter estimation remains acceptable for the relatively weak noises, e.g. SNR is 20 or 30 dB. It indicates that the presented method also has some anti-noise performance.

CAREX Canada: an enhanced model for assessing occupational carcinogen exposure

PubMed Central

Peters, Cheryl E; Ge, Calvin B; Hall, Amy L; Davies, Hugh W; Demers, Paul A

2015-01-01

Objectives To estimate the numbers of workers exposed to known and suspected occupational carcinogens in Canada, building on the methods of CARcinogen EXposure (CAREX) projects in the European Union (EU). Methods CAREX Canada consists of estimates of the prevalence and level of exposure to occupational carcinogens. CAREX Canada includes occupational agents evaluated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer as known, probable or possible human carcinogens that were present and feasible to assess in Canadian workplaces. A Canadian Workplace Exposure Database was established to identify the potential for exposure in particular industries and occupations, and to create exposure level estimates among priority agents, where possible. CAREX EU data were reviewed for relevance to the Canadian context and the proportion of workers likely to be exposed by industry and occupation in Canada was assigned using expert assessment and agreement by a minimum of two occupational hygienists. These proportions were used to generate prevalence estimates by linkage with the Census of Population for 2006, and these estimates are available by industry, occupation, sex and province. Results CAREX Canada estimated the number of workers exposed to 44 known, probable and suspected carcinogens. Estimates of levels of exposure were further developed for 18 priority agents. Common exposures included night shift work (1.9 million exposed), solar ultraviolet radiation exposure (1.5 million exposed) and diesel engine exhaust (781 000 exposed). Conclusions A substantial proportion of Canadian workers are exposed to known and suspected carcinogens at work. PMID:24969047

A Bayesian Machine Learning Model for Estimating Building Occupancy from Open Source Data

DOE PAGES

Stewart, Robert N.; Urban, Marie L.; Duchscherer, Samantha E.; ...

2016-01-01

Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the artmore » by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian based informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000ft2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the art by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian model and informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000 ft 2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.« less

Measurement uncertainty and feasibility study of a flush airdata system for a hypersonic flight experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitmore, Stephen A.; Moes, Timothy R.

1994-01-01

Presented is a feasibility and error analysis for a hypersonic flush airdata system on a hypersonic flight experiment (HYFLITE). HYFLITE heating loads make intrusive airdata measurement impractical. Although this analysis is specifically for the HYFLITE vehicle and trajectory, the problems analyzed are generally applicable to hypersonic vehicles. A layout of the flush-port matrix is shown. Surface pressures are related airdata parameters using a simple aerodynamic model. The model is linearized using small perturbations and inverted using nonlinear least-squares. Effects of various error sources on the overall uncertainty are evaluated using an error simulation. Error sources modeled include boundarylayer/viscous interactions, pneumatic lag, thermal transpiration in the sensor pressure tubing, misalignment in the matrix layout, thermal warping of the vehicle nose, sampling resolution, and transducer error. Using simulated pressure data for input to the estimation algorithm, effects caused by various error sources are analyzed by comparing estimator outputs with the original trajectory. To obtain ensemble averages the simulation is run repeatedly and output statistics are compiled. Output errors resulting from the various error sources are presented as a function of Mach number. Final uncertainties with all modeled error sources included are presented as a function of Mach number.

[Comparison of three stand-level biomass estimation methods].

PubMed

Dong, Li Hu; Li, Feng Ri

2016-12-01

At present, the forest biomass methods of regional scale attract most of attention of the researchers, and developing the stand-level biomass model is popular. Based on the forestry inventory data of larch plantation (Larix olgensis) in Jilin Province, we used non-linear seemly unrelated regression (NSUR) to estimate the parameters in two additive system of stand-level biomass equations, i.e., stand-level biomass equations including the stand variables and stand biomass equations including the biomass expansion factor (i.e., Model system 1 and Model system 2), listed the constant biomass expansion factor for larch plantation and compared the prediction accuracy of three stand-level biomass estimation methods. The results indicated that for two additive system of biomass equations, the adjusted coefficient of determination (R a 2 ) of the total and stem equations was more than 0.95, the root mean squared error (RMSE), the mean prediction error (MPE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) were smaller. The branch and foliage biomass equations were worse than total and stem biomass equations, and the adjusted coefficient of determination (R a 2 ) was less than 0.95. The prediction accuracy of a constant biomass expansion factor was relatively lower than the prediction accuracy of Model system 1 and Model system 2. Overall, although stand-level biomass equation including the biomass expansion factor belonged to the volume-derived biomass estimation method, and was different from the stand biomass equations including stand variables in essence, but the obtained prediction accuracy of the two methods was similar. The constant biomass expansion factor had the lower prediction accuracy, and was inappropriate. In addition, in order to make the model parameter estimation more effective, the established stand-level biomass equations should consider the additivity in a system of all tree component biomass and total biomass equations.

Modification of the ECAS reference steam power generating plant to comply with the EPA 1979 new source performance standards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fogelson, S. A.; Chait, I. L.; Bradley, W. J.; Benson, W.

1980-01-01

Detailed capital cost estimates for the ECAS and modified reference plants in mid-1978 dollars for both 250 and 175 F (394 and 353 K) stack gas reheat temperatures based on the cost estimates developed for the ECAS study are presented. The scope of the work included technical assessment of sulfur dioxide scrubber system design, on site calcination versus purchased lime, reheat of stack gas, effect of sulfur dioxide scrubber on particulate emission, and control of nitrogen oxides.

Aerodynamic design guidelines and computer program for estimation of subsonic wind tunnel performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eckert, W. T.; Mort, K. W.; Jope, J.

1976-01-01

General guidelines are given for the design of diffusers, contractions, corners, and the inlets and exits of non-return tunnels. A system of equations, reflecting the current technology, has been compiled and assembled into a computer program (a user's manual for this program is included) for determining the total pressure losses. The formulation presented is applicable to compressible flow through most closed- or open-throat, single-, double-, or non-return wind tunnels. A comparison of estimated performance with that actually achieved by several existing facilities produced generally good agreement.

How to apply the optimal estimation method to your lidar measurements for improved retrievals of temperature and composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sica, R. J.; Haefele, A.; Jalali, A.; Gamage, S.; Farhani, G.

2018-04-01

The optimal estimation method (OEM) has a long history of use in passive remote sensing, but has only recently been applied to active instruments like lidar. The OEM's advantage over traditional techniques includes obtaining a full systematic and random uncertainty budget plus the ability to work with the raw measurements without first applying instrument corrections. In our meeting presentation we will show you how to use the OEM for temperature and composition retrievals for Rayleigh-scatter, Ramanscatter and DIAL lidars.

Online and unsupervised face recognition for continuous video stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Hongwen; Feng, Jufu

2009-10-01

We present a novel online face recognition approach for video stream in this paper. Our method includes two stages: pre-training and online training. In the pre-training phase, our method observes interactions, collects batches of input data, and attempts to estimate their distributions (Box-Cox transformation is adopted here to normalize rough estimates). In the online training phase, our method incrementally improves classifiers' knowledge of the face space and updates it continuously with incremental eigenspace analysis. The performance achieved by our method shows its great potential in video stream processing.

A method for nonlinear exponential regression analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Junkin, B. G.

1971-01-01

A computer-oriented technique is presented for performing a nonlinear exponential regression analysis on decay-type experimental data. The technique involves the least squares procedure wherein the nonlinear problem is linearized by expansion in a Taylor series. A linear curve fitting procedure for determining the initial nominal estimates for the unknown exponential model parameters is included as an integral part of the technique. A correction matrix was derived and then applied to the nominal estimate to produce an improved set of model parameters. The solution cycle is repeated until some predetermined criterion is satisfied.

Observed galaxy number counts on the lightcone up to second order: I. Main result

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bertacca, Daniele; Maartens, Roy; Clarkson, Chris, E-mail: daniele.bertacca@gmail.com, E-mail: roy.maartens@gmail.com, E-mail: chris.clarkson@gmail.com

2014-09-01

We present the galaxy number overdensity up to second order in redshift space on cosmological scales for a concordance model. The result contains all general relativistic effects up to second order that arise from observing on the past light cone, including all redshift effects, lensing distortions from convergence and shear, and contributions from velocities, Sachs-Wolfe, integrated SW and time-delay terms. This result will be important for accurate calculation of the bias on estimates of non-Gaussianity and on precision parameter estimates, introduced by nonlinear projection effects.

A model of the costs of community and nosocomial pediatric respiratory syncytial virus infections in Canadian hospitals

PubMed Central

Jacobs, Philip; Lier, Douglas; Gooch, Katherine; Buesch, Katharina; Lorimer, Michelle; Mitchell, Ian

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: Approximately one in 10 hospitalized patients will acquire a nosocomial infection (NI) after admission to hospital, of which 71% are due to respiratory viruses, including the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). NIs are concerning and lead to prolonged hospitalizations. The economics of NIs are typically described in generalized terms and specific cost data are lacking. OBJECTIVE: To develop an evidence-based model for predicting the risk and cost of nosocomial RSV infection in pediatric settings. METHODS: A model was developed, from a Canadian perspective, to capture all costs related to an RSV infection hospitalization, including the risk and cost of an NI, diagnostic testing and infection control. All data inputs were derived from published literature. Deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the estimates and to explore the impact of changes to key variables. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to estimate a confidence interval for the overall cost estimate. RESULTS: The estimated cost of nosocomial RSV infection adds approximately 30.5% to the hospitalization costs for the treatment of community-acquired severe RSV infection. The net benefits of the prevention activities were estimated to be equivalent to 9% of the total RSV-related costs. Changes in the estimated hospital infection transmission rates did not have a significant impact on the base-case estimate. CONCLUSIONS: The risk and cost of nosocomial RSV infection contributes to the overall burden of RSV. The present model, which was developed to estimate this burden, can be adapted to other countries with different disease epidemiology, costs and hospital infection transmission rates. PMID:24421788

Space transfer vehicle concepts and requirements study. Volume 3, book 1: Program cost estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peffley, Al F.

1991-01-01

The Space Transfer Vehicle (STV) Concepts and Requirements Study cost estimate and program planning analysis is presented. The cost estimating technique used to support STV system, subsystem, and component cost analysis is a mixture of parametric cost estimating and selective cost analogy approaches. The parametric cost analysis is aimed at developing cost-effective aerobrake, crew module, tank module, and lander designs with the parametric cost estimates data. This is accomplished using cost as a design parameter in an iterative process with conceptual design input information. The parametric estimating approach segregates costs by major program life cycle phase (development, production, integration, and launch support). These phases are further broken out into major hardware subsystems, software functions, and tasks according to the STV preliminary program work breakdown structure (WBS). The WBS is defined to a low enough level of detail by the study team to highlight STV system cost drivers. This level of cost visibility provided the basis for cost sensitivity analysis against various design approaches aimed at achieving a cost-effective design. The cost approach, methodology, and rationale are described. A chronological record of the interim review material relating to cost analysis is included along with a brief summary of the study contract tasks accomplished during that period of review and the key conclusions or observations identified that relate to STV program cost estimates. The STV life cycle costs are estimated on the proprietary parametric cost model (PCM) with inputs organized by a project WBS. Preliminary life cycle schedules are also included.

Multivariate statistical approach to estimate mixing proportions for unknown end members

USGS Publications Warehouse

Valder, Joshua F.; Long, Andrew J.; Davis, Arden D.; Kenner, Scott J.

2012-01-01

A multivariate statistical method is presented, which includes principal components analysis (PCA) and an end-member mixing model to estimate unknown end-member hydrochemical compositions and the relative mixing proportions of those end members in mixed waters. PCA, together with the Hotelling T2 statistic and a conceptual model of groundwater flow and mixing, was used in selecting samples that best approximate end members, which then were used as initial values in optimization of the end-member mixing model. This method was tested on controlled datasets (i.e., true values of estimates were known a priori) and found effective in estimating these end members and mixing proportions. The controlled datasets included synthetically generated hydrochemical data, synthetically generated mixing proportions, and laboratory analyses of sample mixtures, which were used in an evaluation of the effectiveness of this method for potential use in actual hydrological settings. For three different scenarios tested, correlation coefficients (R2) for linear regression between the estimated and known values ranged from 0.968 to 0.993 for mixing proportions and from 0.839 to 0.998 for end-member compositions. The method also was applied to field data from a study of end-member mixing in groundwater as a field example and partial method validation.

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Montana based on data through 1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Omang, R.J.; Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.

1986-01-01

Equations are presented for estimating flood magnitudes for ungaged sites in Montana based on data through 1983. The State was divided into eight regions based on hydrologic conditions, and separate multiple regression equations were developed for each region. These equations relate annual flood magnitudes and frequencies to basin characteristics and are applicable only to natural flow streams. In three of the regions, equations also were developed relating flood magnitudes and frequencies to basin characteristics and channel geometry measurements. The standard errors of estimate for an exceedance probability of 1% ranged from 39% to 87%. Techniques are described for estimating annual flood magnitude and flood frequency information at ungaged sites based on data from gaged sites on the same stream. Included are curves relating flood frequency information to drainage area for eight major streams in the State. Maximum known flood magnitudes in Montana are compared with estimated 1 %-chance flood magnitudes and with maximum known floods in the United States. Values of flood magnitudes for selected exceedance probabilities and values of significant basin characteristics and channel geometry measurements for all gaging stations used in the analysis are tabulated. Included are 375 stations in Montana and 28 nearby stations in Canada and adjoining States. (Author 's abstract)

Estimating Jupiter’s Gravity Field Using Juno Measurements, Trajectory Estimation Analysis, and a Flow Model Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galanti, Eli; Durante, Daniele; Finocchiaro, Stefano; Iess, Luciano; Kaspi, Yohai

2017-07-01

The upcoming Juno spacecraft measurements have the potential of improving our knowledge of Jupiter’s gravity field. The analysis of the Juno Doppler data will provide a very accurate reconstruction of spatial gravity variations, but these measurements will be very accurate only over a limited latitudinal range. In order to deduce the full gravity field of Jupiter, additional information needs to be incorporated into the analysis, especially regarding the Jovian flow structure and its depth, which can influence the measured gravity field. In this study we propose a new iterative method for the estimation of the Jupiter gravity field, using a simulated Juno trajectory, a trajectory estimation model, and an adjoint-based inverse model for the flow dynamics. We test this method both for zonal harmonics only and with a full gravity field including tesseral harmonics. The results show that this method can fit some of the gravitational harmonics better to the “measured” harmonics, mainly because of the added information from the dynamical model, which includes the flow structure. Thus, it is suggested that the method presented here has the potential of improving the accuracy of the expected gravity harmonics estimated from the Juno and Cassini radio science experiments.

Setting the scene for SWOT: global maps of river reach hydrodynamic variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumann, Guy J.-P.; Durand, Michael; Pavelsky, Tamlin; Lion, Christine; Allen, George

2017-04-01

Credible and reliable characterization of discharge from the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission using the Manning-based algorithms needs a prior estimate constraining reach-scale channel roughness, base flow and river bathymetry. For some places, any one of those variables may exist locally or even regionally as a measurement, which is often only at a station, or sometimes as a basin-wide model estimate. However, to date none of those exist at the scale required for SWOT and thus need to be mapped at a continental scale. The prior estimates will be employed for producing initial discharge estimates, which will be used as starting-guesses for the various Manning-based algorithms, to be refined using the SWOT measurements themselves. A multitude of reach-scale variables were derived, including Landsat-based width, SRTM slope and accumulation area. As a possible starting point for building the prior database of low flow, river bathymetry and channel roughness estimates, we employed a variety of sources, including data from all GRDC records, simulations from the long-time runs of the global water balance model (WBM), and reach-based calculations from hydraulic geometry relationships as well as Manning's equation. Here, we present the first global maps of this prior database with some initial validation, caveats and prospective uses.

Estimating Jupiter’s Gravity Field Using Juno Measurements, Trajectory Estimation Analysis, and a Flow Model Optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Galanti, Eli; Kaspi, Yohai; Durante, Daniele

The upcoming Juno spacecraft measurements have the potential of improving our knowledge of Jupiter’s gravity field. The analysis of the Juno Doppler data will provide a very accurate reconstruction of spatial gravity variations, but these measurements will be very accurate only over a limited latitudinal range. In order to deduce the full gravity field of Jupiter, additional information needs to be incorporated into the analysis, especially regarding the Jovian flow structure and its depth, which can influence the measured gravity field. In this study we propose a new iterative method for the estimation of the Jupiter gravity field, using a simulatedmore » Juno trajectory, a trajectory estimation model, and an adjoint-based inverse model for the flow dynamics. We test this method both for zonal harmonics only and with a full gravity field including tesseral harmonics. The results show that this method can fit some of the gravitational harmonics better to the “measured” harmonics, mainly because of the added information from the dynamical model, which includes the flow structure. Thus, it is suggested that the method presented here has the potential of improving the accuracy of the expected gravity harmonics estimated from the Juno and Cassini radio science experiments.« less

UPPER LIMITS FROM FIVE YEARS OF BLAZAR OBSERVATIONS WITH THE VERITAS CHERENKOV TELESCOPES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Archambault, S.; Archer, A.; Buckley, J. H.

2016-06-01

Between the beginning of its full-scale scientific operations in 2007 and 2012, the VERITAS Cherenkov telescope array observed more than 130 blazars; of these, 26 were detected as very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) γ -ray sources. In this work, we present the analysis results of a sample of 114 undetected objects. The observations constitute a total live-time of ∼570 hr. The sample includes several unidentified Fermi -Large Area Telescope (LAT) sources (located at high Galactic latitude) as well as all the sources from the second Fermi -LAT catalog that are contained within the field of view of the VERITASmore » observations. We have also performed optical spectroscopy measurements in order to estimate the redshift of some of these blazars that do not have spectroscopic distance estimates. We present new optical spectra from the Kast instrument on the Shane telescope at the Lick observatory for 18 blazars included in this work, which allowed for the successful measurement or constraint on the redshift of four of them. For each of the blazars included in our sample, we provide the flux upper limit in the VERITAS energy band. We also study the properties of the significance distributions and we present the result of a stacked analysis of the data set, which shows a 4 σ excess.« less

Synthetic Air Data Estimation: A case study of model-aided estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lie, F. Adhika Pradipta

A method for estimating airspeed, angle of attack, and sideslip without using conventional, pitot-static airdata system is presented. The method relies on measurements from GPS, an inertial measurement unit (IMU) and a low-fidelity model of the aircraft's dynamics which are fused using two, cascaded Extended Kalman Filters. In the cascaded architecture, the first filter uses information from the IMU and GPS to estimate the aircraft's absolute velocity and attitude. These estimates are used as the measurement updates for the second filter where they are fused with the aircraft dynamics model to generate estimates of airspeed, angle of attack and sideslip. Methods for dealing with the time and inter-state correlation in the measurements coming from the first filter are discussed. Simulation and flight test results of the method are presented. Simulation results using high fidelity nonlinear model show that airspeed, angle of attack, and sideslip angle estimation errors are less than 0.5 m/s, 0.1 deg, and 0.2 deg RMS, respectively. Factors that affect the accuracy including the implication and impact of using a low fidelity aircraft model are discussed. It is shown using flight tests that a single linearized aircraft model can be used in lieu of a high-fidelity, non-linear model to provide reasonably accurate estimates of airspeed (less than 2 m/s error), angle of attack (less than 3 deg error), and sideslip angle (less than 5 deg error). This performance is shown to be relatively insensitive to off-trim attitudes but very sensitive to off-trim velocity.

Genetic evaluation of claw health traits accounting for potential preselection of cows to be trimmed.

PubMed

Croué, Iola; Fikse, Freddy; Johansson, Kjell; Carlén, Emma; Thomas, Gilles; Leclerc, Hélène; Ducrocq, Vincent

2017-10-01

Claw lesions are one of the most important health issues in dairy cattle. Although the frequency of claw lesions depends greatly on herd management, the frequency can be lowered through genetic selection. A genetic evaluation could be developed based on trimming records collected by claw trimmers; however, not all cows present in a herd are usually selected by the breeder to be trimmed. The objectives of this study were to investigate the importance of the preselection of cows for trimming, to account for this preselection, and to estimate genetic parameters of claw health traits. The final data set contained 25,511 trimming records of French Holstein cows. Analyzed claw lesion traits were digital dermatitis, heel horn erosion, interdigital hyperplasia, sole hemorrhage circumscribed, sole hemorrhage diffused, sole ulcer, and white line fissure. All traits were analyzed as binary traits in a multitrait linear animal model. Three scenarios were considered: including only trimmed cows in a 7-trait model (scenario 1); or trimmed cows and contemporary cows not trimmed but present at the time of a visit (considering that nontrimmed cows were healthy) in a 7-trait model (scenario 2); or trimmed cows and contemporary cows not trimmed but present at the time of a visit (considering lesion records for trimmed cows only), in an 8-trait model, including a 0/1 trimming status trait (scenario 3). For scenario 3, heritability estimates ranged from 0.02 to 0.09 on the observed scale. Genetic correlations clearly revealed 2 groups of traits (digital dermatitis, heel horn erosion, and interdigital hyperplasia on the one hand, and sole hemorrhage circumscribed, sole hemorrhage diffused, sole ulcer, and white line fissure on the other hand). Heritabilities on the underlying scale did not vary much depending on the scenario: the effect of the preselection of cows for trimming on the estimation of heritabilities appeared to be negligible. However, including untrimmed cows as healthy caused bias in the estimation of genetic correlations. The use of a trimming status trait to account for preselection appears promising, as it allows consideration of the exhaustive population of cows present at the time a trimmer visited a farm without causing bias in genetic parameters. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Connolly, J.R.

Petrologic, bulk chemical, and mineralogic data are presented for 49 samples of tuffaceous rocks from core holes USW G-1 and UE-25a{number_sign}1 at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Included, in descending stratigraphic order, are 11 samples from the Topopah Spring Member of the Paintbrush Tuff, 12 samples from the Tuffaceous Beds of Calico Hills, 3 samples from the Prow Pass Member of the Crater Flat Tuff, 20 samples from the Bullfrog Member of the Crater Flat Tuff and 3 samples from the Tram Member of the Crater Flat Tuff. The suite of samples contains a wide variety of petrologic types, including zeolitized, glassy,more » and devitrified tuffs. Data vary considerably between groups of samples, and include thin section descriptions (some with modal analyses for which uncertainties are estimated), electron microprobe analyses of mineral phases and matrix, mineral identifications by X-ray diffraction, and major element analyses with uncertainty estimates.« less

MEGASTAR: The meaning of growth. An assessment of systems, technologies, and requirements. [methodology for display and analysis of energy production and consumption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

A methodology for the display and analysis of postulated energy futures for the United States is presented. A systems approach methodology including the methodology of technology assessment is used to examine three energy scenarios--the Westinghouse Nuclear Electric Economy, the Ford Technical Fix Base Case and a MEGASTAR generated Alternate to the Ford Technical Fix Base Case. The three scenarios represent different paths of energy consumption from the present to the year 2000. Associated with these paths are various mixes of fuels, conversion, distribution, conservation and end-use technologies. MEGASTAR presents the estimated times and unit requirements to supply the fuels, conversion and distribution systems for the postulated end uses for the three scenarios and then estimates the aggregate manpower, materials, and capital requirements needed to develop the energy system described by the particular scenario.

Interstellar Travel without 'Magic'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodcock, G.

The possibility of interstellar space travel has become a popular subject. Distances of light years are an entirely new realm for human space travel. New means of propulsion are needed. Speculation about propulsion has included "magic", space warps, faster-than-light travel, known physics such as antimatter for which no practical implementation is known and also physics for which current research offers at least a hint of implementation, i.e. fusion. Performance estimates are presented for the latter and used to create vehicle concepts. Fusion propulsion will mean travel times of hundreds of years, so we adopt the "space colony" concepts of O'Neill as a ship design that could support a small civilization indefinitely; this provides the technical means. Economic reasoning is presented, arguing that development and production of "space colony" habitats for relief of Earth's population, with addition of fusion engines, will lead to vessels that can go interstellar. Scenarios are presented and a speculative estimate of a timetable is given.

US crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves, 1992 annual report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1993-10-18

This report presents estimates of proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids as of December 31, 1992, as well as production volumes for the United States, and selected States and State subdivisions for the year 1992. Estimates are presented for the following four categories of natural gas: total gas (wet after lease separation), its two major components (nonassociated and associated-dissolved gas), and total dry gas (wet gas adjusted for the removal of liquids at natural gas processing plants). In addition, two components of natural gas liquids, lease condensate and natural gas plant liquids, have their reservesmore » and production data presented. Also included is information on indicated additional crude oil reserves and crude oil, natural gas, and lease condensate reserves in nonproducing reservoirs. A discussion of notable oil and gas exploration and development activities during 1992 is provided.« less

Quick estimate of oil discovery from gas-condensate reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sarem, A.M.

1966-10-24

A quick method of estimating the depletion performance of gas-condensate reservoirs is presented by graphical representations. The method is based on correlations reported in the literature and expresses recoverable liquid as function of gas reserves, producing gas-oil ratio, and initial and final reservoir pressures. The amount of recoverable liquid reserves (RLR) under depletion conditions, is estimated from an equation which is given. Where the liquid-reserves are in stock-tank barrels the gas reserves are in Mcf, with the arbitrary constant, N calculated from one graphical representation by dividing fractional oil recovery by the initial gas-oil ratio and multiplying 10U6D for convenience.more » An equation is given for estimating the coefficient C. These factors (N and C) can be determined from the graphical representations. An example calculation is included.« less

Real-Time Radar-Based Tracking and State Estimation of Multiple Non-Conformant Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Brandon; Arnett, Timothy; Macmann, Owen; Kumar, Manish

2017-01-01

In this study, a novel solution for automated tracking of multiple unknown aircraft is proposed. Many current methods use transponders to self-report state information and augment track identification. While conformant aircraft typically report transponder information to alert surrounding aircraft of its state, vehicles may exist in the airspace that are non-compliant and need to be accurately tracked using alternative methods. In this study, a multi-agent tracking solution is presented that solely utilizes primary surveillance radar data to estimate aircraft state information. Main research challenges include state estimation, track management, data association, and establishing persistent track validity. In an effort to realize these challenges, techniques such as Maximum a Posteriori estimation, Kalman filtering, degree of membership data association, and Nearest Neighbor Spanning Tree clustering are implemented for this application.

Shielding and activity estimator for template-based nuclide identification methods

DOEpatents

Nelson, Karl Einar

2013-04-09

According to one embodiment, a method for estimating an activity of one or more radio-nuclides includes receiving one or more templates, the one or more templates corresponding to one or more radio-nuclides which contribute to a probable solution, receiving one or more weighting factors, each weighting factor representing a contribution of one radio-nuclide to the probable solution, computing an effective areal density for each of the one more radio-nuclides, computing an effective atomic number (Z) for each of the one more radio-nuclides, computing an effective metric for each of the one or more radio-nuclides, and computing an estimated activity for each of the one or more radio-nuclides. In other embodiments, computer program products, systems, and other methods are presented for estimating an activity of one or more radio-nuclides.

Estimating the hydraulic parameters of a confined aquifer based on the response of groundwater levels to seismic Rayleigh waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiaolong; Xiang, Yang; Shi, Zheming

2018-05-01

Groundwater flow models implemented to manage regional water resources require aquifer hydraulic parameters. Traditional methods for obtaining these parameters include laboratory experiments, field tests and model inversions, and each are potentially hindered by their unique limitations. Here, we propose a methodology for estimating hydraulic conductivity and storage coefficients using the spectral characteristics of the coseismic groundwater-level oscillations and seismic Rayleigh waves. The results from Well X10 are consistent with the variations and spectral characteristics of the water-level oscillations and seismic waves and present an estimated hydraulic conductivity of approximately 1 × 10-3 m s-1 and storativity of 15 × 10-6. The proposed methodology for estimating hydraulic parameters in confined aquifers is a practical and novel approach for groundwater management and seismic precursor anomaly analyses.

Estimation Model of Spacecraft Parameters and Cost Based on a Statistical Analysis of COMPASS Designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gerberich, Matthew W.; Oleson, Steven R.

2013-01-01

The Collaborative Modeling for Parametric Assessment of Space Systems (COMPASS) team at Glenn Research Center has performed integrated system analysis of conceptual spacecraft mission designs since 2006 using a multidisciplinary concurrent engineering process. The set of completed designs was archived in a database, to allow for the study of relationships between design parameters. Although COMPASS uses a parametric spacecraft costing model, this research investigated the possibility of using a top-down approach to rapidly estimate the overall vehicle costs. This paper presents the relationships between significant design variables, including breakdowns of dry mass, wet mass, and cost. It also develops a model for a broad estimate of these parameters through basic mission characteristics, including the target location distance, the payload mass, the duration, the delta-v requirement, and the type of mission, propulsion, and electrical power. Finally, this paper examines the accuracy of this model in regards to past COMPASS designs, with an assessment of outlying spacecraft, and compares the results to historical data of completed NASA missions.

Estimates of Sputter Yields of Solar-Wind Heavy Ions of Lunar Regolith Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barghouty, Abdulmasser F.; Adams, James H., Jr.

2008-01-01

At energies of approximately 1 keV/amu, solar-wind protons and heavy ions interact with the lunar surface materials via a number of microscopic interactions that include sputtering. Solar-wind induced sputtering is a main mechanism by which the composition of the topmost layers of the lunar surface can change, dynamically and preferentially. This work concentrates on sputtering induced by solar-wind heavy ions. Sputtering associated with slow (speeds the electrons speed in its first Bohr orbit) and highly charged ions are known to include both kinetic and potential sputtering. Potential sputtering enjoys some unique characteristics that makes it of special interest to lunar science and exploration. Unlike the yield from kinetic sputtering where simulation and approximation schemes exist, the yield from potential sputtering is not as easy to estimate. This work will present a preliminary numerical scheme designed to estimate potential sputtering yields from reactions relevant to this aspect of solar-wind lunar-surface coupling.

Is a 'convenience' sample useful for estimating immunization coverage in a small population?

PubMed

Weir, Jean E; Jones, Carrie

2008-01-01

Rapid survey methodologies are widely used for assessing immunization coverage in developing countries, approximating true stratified random sampling. Non-random ('convenience') sampling is not considered appropriate for estimating immunization coverage rates but has the advantages of low cost and expediency. We assessed the validity of a convenience sample of children presenting to a travelling clinic by comparing the coverage rate in the convenience sample to the true coverage established by surveying each child in three villages in rural Papua New Guinea. The rate of DTF immunization coverage as estimated by the convenience sample was within 10% of the true coverage when the proportion of children in the sample was two-thirds or when only children over the age of one year were counted, but differed by 11% when the sample included only 53% of the children and when all eligible children were included. The convenience sample may be sufficiently accurate for reporting purposes and is useful for identifying areas of low coverage.

New Methods for Assessing and Reducing Uncertainty in Microgravity Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giniaux, J. M.; Hooper, A. J.; Bagnardi, M.

2017-12-01

Microgravity surveying, also known as dynamic or 4D gravimetry is a time-dependent geophysical method used to detect mass fluctuations within the shallow crust, by analysing temporal changes in relative gravity measurements. We present here a detailed uncertainty analysis of temporal gravity measurements, considering for the first time all possible error sources, including tilt, error in drift estimations and timing errors. We find that some error sources that are actually ignored, can have a significant impact on the total error budget and it is therefore likely that some gravity signals may have been misinterpreted in previous studies. Our analysis leads to new methods for reducing some of the uncertainties associated with residual gravity estimation. In particular, we propose different approaches for drift estimation and free air correction depending on the survey set up. We also provide formulae to recalculate uncertainties for past studies and lay out a framework for best practice in future studies. We demonstrate our new approach on volcanic case studies, which include Kilauea in Hawaii and Askja in Iceland.

Training specificity and transfer in time and distance estimation.

PubMed

Healy, Alice F; Tack, Lindsay Anderson; Schneider, Vivian I; Barshi, Immanuel

2015-07-01

Learning is often specific to the conditions of training, making it important to identify which aspects of the testing environment are crucial to be matched in the training environment. In the present study, we examined training specificity in time and distance estimation tasks that differed only in the focus of processing (FOP). External spatial cues were provided for the distance estimation task and for the time estimation task in one condition, but not in another. The presence of a concurrent alphabet secondary task was manipulated during training and testing in all estimation conditions in Experiment 1. For distance as well as for time estimation in both conditions, training of the primary estimation task was found to be specific to the presence of the secondary task. In Experiments 2 and 3, we examined transfer between one estimation task and another, with no secondary task in either case. When all conditions were equal aside from the FOP instructions, including the presence of external spatial cues, Experiment 2 showed "transfer" between tasks, suggesting that training might not be specific to the FOP. When the external spatial cues were removed from the time estimation task, Experiment 3 showed no transfer between time and distance estimations, suggesting that external task cues influenced the procedures used in the estimation tasks.

Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America—Modern data for climatic estimation from vegetation inventories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Strickland, Laura E.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

2012-01-01

Vegetation inventories (plant taxa present in a vegetation assemblage at a given site) can be used to estimate climatic parameters based on the identification of the range of a given parameter where all taxa in an assemblage overlap ("Mutual Climatic Range"). For the reconstruction of past climates from fossil or subfossil plant assemblages, we assembled the data necessary for such analyses for 530 woody plant taxa and eight climatic parameters in North America. Here we present examples of how these data can be used to obtain paleoclimatic estimates from botanical data in a straightforward, simple, and robust fashion. We also include matrices of climate parameter versus occurrence or nonoccurrence of the individual taxa. These relations are depicted graphically as histograms of the population distributions of the occurrences of a given taxon plotted against a given climatic parameter. This provides a new method for quantification of paleoclimatic parameters from fossil plant assemblages.

Estimating Causal Effects with Ancestral Graph Markov Models

PubMed Central

Malinsky, Daniel; Spirtes, Peter

2017-01-01

We present an algorithm for estimating bounds on causal effects from observational data which combines graphical model search with simple linear regression. We assume that the underlying system can be represented by a linear structural equation model with no feedback, and we allow for the possibility of latent variables. Under assumptions standard in the causal search literature, we use conditional independence constraints to search for an equivalence class of ancestral graphs. Then, for each model in the equivalence class, we perform the appropriate regression (using causal structure information to determine which covariates to include in the regression) to estimate a set of possible causal effects. Our approach is based on the “IDA” procedure of Maathuis et al. (2009), which assumes that all relevant variables have been measured (i.e., no unmeasured confounders). We generalize their work by relaxing this assumption, which is often violated in applied contexts. We validate the performance of our algorithm on simulated data and demonstrate improved precision over IDA when latent variables are present. PMID:28217244

Sensor fusion of cameras and a laser for city-scale 3D reconstruction.

PubMed

Bok, Yunsu; Choi, Dong-Geol; Kweon, In So

2014-11-04

This paper presents a sensor fusion system of cameras and a 2D laser sensorfor large-scale 3D reconstruction. The proposed system is designed to capture data on afast-moving ground vehicle. The system consists of six cameras and one 2D laser sensor,and they are synchronized by a hardware trigger. Reconstruction of 3D structures is doneby estimating frame-by-frame motion and accumulating vertical laser scans, as in previousworks. However, our approach does not assume near 2D motion, but estimates free motion(including absolute scale) in 3D space using both laser data and image features. In orderto avoid the degeneration associated with typical three-point algorithms, we present a newalgorithm that selects 3D points from two frames captured by multiple cameras. The problemof error accumulation is solved by loop closing, not by GPS. The experimental resultsshow that the estimated path is successfully overlaid on the satellite images, such that thereconstruction result is very accurate.

Slip-based terrain estimation with a skid-steer vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reina, Giulio; Galati, Rocco

2016-10-01

In this paper, a novel approach for online terrain characterisation is presented using a skid-steer vehicle. In the context of this research, terrain characterisation refers to the estimation of physical parameters that affects the terrain ability to support vehicular motion. These parameters are inferred from the modelling of the kinematic and dynamic behaviour of a skid-steer vehicle that reveals the underlying relationships governing the vehicle-terrain interaction. The concept of slip track is introduced as a measure of the slippage experienced by the vehicle during turning motion. The proposed terrain estimation system includes common onboard sensors, that is, wheel encoders, electrical current sensors and yaw rate gyroscope. Using these components, the system can characterise terrain online during normal vehicle operations. Experimental results obtained from different surfaces are presented to validate the system in the field showing its effectiveness and potential benefits to implement adaptive driving assistance systems or to automatically update the parameters of onboard control and planning algorithms.

The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Xie, Ping-Ping; Janowiak, John; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David

2003-01-01

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version 2 Monthly Precipitation Analysis is described. This globally complete, monthly analysis of surface precipitation at 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees latitude-longitude resolution is available from January 1979 to the present. It is a merged analysis that incorporates precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit-satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The merging approach utilizes the higher accuracy of the low-orbit microwave observations to calibrate, or adjust, the more frequent geosynchronous infrared observations. The data set is extended back into the premicrowave era (before 1987) by using infrared-only observations calibrated to the microwave-based analysis of the later years. The combined satellite-based product is adjusted by the raingauge analysis. This monthly analysis is the foundation for the GPCP suite of products including those at finer temporal resolution, satellite estimate, and error estimates for each field. The 23-year GPCP climatology is characterized, along with time and space variations of precipitation.

Estimation of images degraded by film-grain noise.

PubMed

Naderi, F; Sawchuk, A A

1978-04-15

Film-grain noise describes the intrinsic noise produced by a photographic emulsion during the process of image recording and reproduction. In this paper we consider the restoration of images degraded by film-grain noise. First a detailed model for the over-all photographic imaging system is presented. The model includes linear blurring effects and the signal-dependent effect of film-grain noise. The accuracy of this model is tested by simulating images according to it and comparing the results to images of similar targets that were actually recorded on film. The restoration of images degraded by film-grain noise is then considered in the context of estimation theory. A discrete Wiener filer is developed which explicitly allows for the signal dependence of the noise. The filter adaptively alters its characteristics based on the nonstationary first order statistics of an image and is shown to have advantages over the conventional Wiener filter. Experimental results for modeling and the adaptive estimation filter are presented.

An integrated uncertainty analysis and data assimilation approach for improved streamflow predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogue, T. S.; He, M.; Franz, K. J.; Margulis, S. A.; Vrugt, J. A.

2010-12-01

The current study presents an integrated uncertainty analysis and data assimilation approach to improve streamflow predictions while simultaneously providing meaningful estimates of the associated uncertainty. Study models include the National Weather Service (NWS) operational snow model (SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (SAC-SMA). The proposed approach uses the recently developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) to simultaneously estimate uncertainties in model parameters, forcing, and observations. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is configured with the DREAM-identified uncertainty structure and applied to assimilating snow water equivalent data into the SNOW17 model for improved snowmelt simulations. Snowmelt estimates then serves as an input to the SAC-SMA model to provide streamflow predictions at the basin outlet. The robustness and usefulness of the approach is evaluated for a snow-dominated watershed in the northern Sierra Mountains. This presentation describes the implementation of DREAM and EnKF into the coupled SNOW17 and SAC-SMA models and summarizes study results and findings.

Michigan's forests, 2004: statistics and quality assurance

Treesearch

Scott A. Pugh; Mark H. Hansen; Gary Brand; Ronald E. McRoberts

2010-01-01

The first annual inventory of Michigan's forests was completed in 2004 after 18,916 plots were selected and 10,355 forested plots were visited. This report includes detailed information on forest inventory methods, quality of estimates, and additional tables. An earlier publication presented analyses of the inventoried data (Pugh et al. 2009).

Manager's handbook for balsam fir in the North Central States.

Treesearch

William F. Johnston

1986-01-01

Presents the resource manager with a key to the recommended practices for managing balsam fir stands, especially for timber. Discusses control of growth , establishment, composition, and damaging agents; also discusses managing for boughs and Christmas trees, wildlife habitat, esthetics, water. Includes information on estimating yield and growth.

Inside Charter Schools: The Paradox of Radical Decentralization.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fuller, Bruce, Ed.

Deepening disaffection with public schools has inspired flight to private schools, home schooling, and charter schools. At present, there are about 1,700 charter schools, with total enrollments estimated to reach one million soon. This book looks at six strikingly different charter schools, including an evangelical home-schooling charter in…

Ghana. Country Demographic Profiles, No. 5.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bureau of the Census (DOC), Suitland, MD. Population Div.

Tables of demographic information about Ghana are presented, including size of population and estimates of fertility and mortality. The data were obtained primarily from population censuses in 1960 and 1970, a 1960 post-enumeration survey, and a 1971 supplementary enquiry. Because Ghana's vital registration system is incomplete, the data are not…

Childhood Chronic Illness: Prevalence, Severity, and Impact.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newacheck, Paul W.; Taylor, William R.

1992-01-01

Presents national estimates of the prevalence and impact of chronic childhood conditions using proxy responses for 17,110 children under age 18 years. Thirty-one percent of the children are affected by chronic conditions, which include respiratory allergies, repeated ear infections, and asthma. Psychosocial conditions moderate the impact of these…

ANOVA with Rasch Measures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Linacre, John Michael

Various methods of estimating main effects from ordinal data are presented and contrasted. Problems discussed include: (1) at what level to accumulate ordinal data into linear measures; (2) how to maintain scaling across analyses; and (3) the inevitable confounding of within cell variance with measurement error. An example shows three methods of…

On Campus Activity Guide. Environmental Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pinellas County School Board, Clearwater, FL.

Descriptions of about 100 secondary-level activities that can be done on the school grounds are presented. Among the lessons included are a study of life in sidewalk cracks, methods of estimating animal populations, soil testing, constructing and using triangulation instruments to map the school area, and creative writing exercises. Although most…

Public Schools Energy Conservation Measures, Report Number 4: Hindman Elementary School, Hindman, Kentucky.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Association of School Administrators, Arlington, VA.

Presented is a study identifying and evaluating opportunities for decreasing energy use at Hindman Elementary School, Hindman, Kentucky. Methods used in this engineering investigation include building surveys, computer simulations and cost estimates. Findings revealed that modifications to the school's boiler, temperature controls, electrical…

Tree mortality risk of oak due to gypsy moth

Treesearch

K.W. Gottschalk; J.J. Colbert; D.L. Feicht

1998-01-01

We present prediction models for estimating tree mortality resulting from gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, defoliation in mixed oak, Quercus sp., forests. These models differ from previous work by including defoliation as a factor in the analysis. Defoliation intensity, initial tree crown condition (crown vigour), crown position, and...

Disability Risks of Chronic Illnesses and Impairments. Disability Statistics Report 2.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LaPlante, Mitchell P.

This report provides results from an investigation of comparative disability risks of specific chronic physical and mental illnesses, diseases, and impairments. National estimates are presented of the risks of chronic health conditions causing disability--including activity limitation, work disability, and need for assistance in basic life…

Calculator. Owning a Small Business.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parma City School District, OH.

Seven activities are presented in this student workbook designed for an exploration of small business ownership and the use of the calculator in this career. Included are simulated situations in which students must use a calculator to compute property taxes; estimate payroll taxes and franchise taxes; compute pricing, approximate salaries,…

Endogenous pain modulation in chronic orofacial pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Moana-Filho, Estephan J; Herrero Babiloni, Alberto; Theis-Mahon, Nicole R

2018-06-15

Abnormal endogenous pain modulation was suggested as a potential mechanism for chronic pain, ie, increased pain facilitation and/or impaired pain inhibition underlying symptoms manifestation. Endogenous pain modulation function can be tested using psychophysical methods such as temporal summation of pain (TSP) and conditioned pain modulation (CPM), which assess pain facilitation and inhibition, respectively. Several studies have investigated endogenous pain modulation function in patients with nonparoxysmal orofacial pain (OFP) and reported mixed results. This study aimed to provide, through a qualitative and quantitative synthesis of the available literature, overall estimates for TSP/CPM responses in patients with OFP relative to controls. MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane databases were searched, and references were screened independently by 2 raters. Twenty-six studies were included for qualitative review, and 22 studies were included for meta-analysis. Traditional meta-analysis and robust variance estimation were used to synthesize overall estimates for standardized mean difference. The overall standardized estimate for TSP was 0.30 (95% confidence interval: 0.11-0.49; P = 0.002), with moderate between-study heterogeneity (Q [df = 17] = 41.8, P = 0.001; I = 70.2%). Conditioned pain modulation's estimated overall effect size was large but above the significance threshold (estimate = 1.36; 95% confidence interval: -0.09 to 2.81; P = 0.066), with very large heterogeneity (Q [df = 8] = 108.3, P < 0.001; I = 98.0%). Sensitivity analyses did not affect the overall estimate for TSP; for CPM, the overall estimate became significant if specific random-effect models were used or if the most influential study was removed. Publication bias was not present for TSP studies, whereas it substantially influenced CPM's overall estimate. These results suggest increased pain facilitation and trend for pain inhibition impairment in patients with nonparoxysmal OFP.

The economic burden of child sexual abuse in the United States.

PubMed

Letourneau, Elizabeth J; Brown, Derek S; Fang, Xiangming; Hassan, Ahmed; Mercy, James A

2018-05-01

The present study provides an estimate of the U.S. economic impact of child sexual abuse (CSA). Costs of CSA were measured from the societal perspective and include health care costs, productivity losses, child welfare costs, violence/crime costs, special education costs, and suicide death costs. We separately estimated quality-adjusted life year (QALY) losses. For each category, we used the best available secondary data to develop cost per case estimates. All costs were estimated in U.S. dollars and adjusted to the reference year 2015. Estimating 20 new cases of fatal and 40,387 new substantiated cases of nonfatal CSA that occurred in 2015, the lifetime economic burden of CSA is approximately $9.3 billion, the lifetime cost for victims of fatal CSA per female and male victim is on average $1,128,334 and $1,482,933, respectively, and the average lifetime cost for victims of nonfatal CSA is of $282,734 per female victim. For male victims of nonfatal CSA, there was insufficient information on productivity losses, contributing to a lower average estimated lifetime cost of $74,691 per male victim. If we included QALYs, these costs would increase by approximately $40,000 per victim. With the exception of male productivity losses, all estimates were based on robust, replicable incidence-based costing methods. The availability of accurate, up-to-date estimates should contribute to policy analysis, facilitate comparisons with other public health problems, and support future economic evaluations of CSA-specific policy and practice. In particular, we hope the availability of credible and contemporary estimates will support increased attention to primary prevention of CSA. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Defining Tsunami Magnitude as Measure of Potential Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, V. V.; Tang, L.

2016-12-01

The goal of tsunami forecast, as a system for predicting potential impact of a tsunami at coastlines, requires quick estimate of a tsunami magnitude. This goal has been recognized since the beginning of tsunami research. The work of Kajiura, Soloviev, Abe, Murty, and many others discussed several scales for tsunami magnitude based on estimates of tsunami energy. However, difficulties of estimating tsunami energy based on available tsunami measurements at coastal sea-level stations has carried significant uncertainties and has been virtually impossible in real time, before tsunami impacts coastlines. The slow process of tsunami magnitude estimates, including collection of vast amount of available coastal sea-level data from affected coastlines, made it impractical to use any tsunami magnitude scales in tsunami warning operations. Uncertainties of estimates made tsunami magnitudes difficult to use as universal scale for tsunami analysis. Historically, the earthquake magnitude has been used as a proxy of tsunami impact estimates, since real-time seismic data is available of real-time processing and ample amount of seismic data is available for an elaborate post event analysis. This measure of tsunami impact carries significant uncertainties in quantitative tsunami impact estimates, since the relation between the earthquake and generated tsunami energy varies from case to case. In this work, we argue that current tsunami measurement capabilities and real-time modeling tools allow for establishing robust tsunami magnitude that will be useful for tsunami warning as a quick estimate for tsunami impact and for post-event analysis as a universal scale for tsunamis inter-comparison. We present a method for estimating the tsunami magnitude based on tsunami energy and present application of the magnitude analysis for several historical events for inter-comparison with existing methods.

Estimation of Right-Lobe Graft Weight From Computed Tomographic Volumetry for Living Donor Liver Transplantation.

PubMed

Yang, X; Chu, C W; Yang, J D; Yang, K H; Yu, H C; Cho, B H; You, H

2017-03-01

The objective of the study was to establish a right-lobe graft weight (GW) estimation formula for living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) from right-lobe graft volume without veins (GV w/o_veins ), including portal vein and hepatic vein measured by computed tomographic (CT) volumetry, and to compare its estimation accuracy with those of existing formulas. Right-lobe GW estimation formulas established with the use of graft volume with veins (GV w_veins ) sacrifice accuracy because GW measured intra-operatively excludes the weight of blood in the veins. Right-lobe GW estimation formulas have been established with the use of right-lobe GV w/o_veins , but a more accurate formula must be developed. The present study developed right-lobe GW estimation formulas based on GV w/o_veins as well as GV w_veins , using 40 cases of Korean donors: GW = 29.1 + 0.943 × GV w/o_veins (adjusted R 2  = 0.94) and GW = 74.7 + 0.773 × GV w_veins (adjusted R 2  = 0.87). The proposed GW estimation formulas were compared with existing GV w_veins - and GV w/o_veins -based models, using 43 cases additionally obtained from two medical centers for cross-validation. The GV w/o_veins -based formula developed in the present study was most preferred (absolute error = 21.5 ± 16.5 g and percentage of absolute error = 3.0 ± 2.3%). The GV w/o_veins -based formula is preferred to the GV w_veins -based formula in GW estimation. Accurate CT volumetry and alignment between planned and actual surgical cutting lines are crucial in the establishment of a better GW estimation formula. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khachatryan, Vardan

The performance of missing transverse energy reconstruction algorithms is presented by our team using√s=8 TeV proton-proton (pp) data collected with the CMS detector. Events with anomalous missing transverse energy are studied, and the performance of algorithms used to identify and remove these events is presented. The scale and resolution for missing transverse energy, including the effects of multiple pp interactions (pileup), are measured using events with an identified Z boson or isolated photon, and are found to be well described by the simulation. Novel missing transverse energy reconstruction algorithms developed specifically to mitigate the effects of large numbers of pileupmore » interactions on the missing transverse energy resolution are presented. These algorithms significantly reduce the dependence of the missing transverse energy resolution on pileup interactions. Furthermore, an algorithm that provides an estimate of the significance of the missing transverse energy is presented, which is used to estimate the compatibility of the reconstructed missing transverse energy with a zero nominal value.« less

Accounting for Incomplete Species Detection in Fish Community Monitoring

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McManamay, Ryan A; Orth, Dr. Donald J; Jager, Yetta

2013-01-01

Riverine fish assemblages are heterogeneous and very difficult to characterize with a one-size-fits-all approach to sampling. Furthermore, detecting changes in fish assemblages over time requires accounting for variation in sampling designs. We present a modeling approach that permits heterogeneous sampling by accounting for site and sampling covariates (including method) in a model-based framework for estimation (versus a sampling-based framework). We snorkeled during three surveys and electrofished during a single survey in suite of delineated habitats stratified by reach types. We developed single-species occupancy models to determine covariates influencing patch occupancy and species detection probabilities whereas community occupancy models estimated speciesmore » richness in light of incomplete detections. For most species, information-theoretic criteria showed higher support for models that included patch size and reach as covariates of occupancy. In addition, models including patch size and sampling method as covariates of detection probabilities also had higher support. Detection probability estimates for snorkeling surveys were higher for larger non-benthic species whereas electrofishing was more effective at detecting smaller benthic species. The number of sites and sampling occasions required to accurately estimate occupancy varied among fish species. For rare benthic species, our results suggested that higher number of occasions, and especially the addition of electrofishing, may be required to improve detection probabilities and obtain accurate occupancy estimates. Community models suggested that richness was 41% higher than the number of species actually observed and the addition of an electrofishing survey increased estimated richness by 13%. These results can be useful to future fish assemblage monitoring efforts by informing sampling designs, such as site selection (e.g. stratifying based on patch size) and determining effort required (e.g. number of sites versus occasions).« less

Economic Consequences and Potentially Preventable Costs Related to Osteoporosis in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Dunnewind, Tom; Dvortsin, Evgeni P; Smeets, Hugo M; Konijn, Rob M; Bos, Jens H J; de Boer, Pieter T; van den Bergh, Joop P; Postma, Maarten J

2017-06-01

Osteoporosis often does not involve symptoms, and so the actual number of patients with osteoporosis is higher than the number of diagnosed individuals. This underdiagnosis results in a treatment gap. To estimate the total health care resource use and costs related to osteoporosis in the Netherlands, explicitly including fractures, and to estimate the proportion of fracture costs that are linked to the treatment gap and might therefore be potentially preventable; to also formulate, on the basis of these findings, strategies to optimize osteoporosis care and treatment and reduce its related costs. In this retrospective study, data of the Achmea Health Database representing 4.2 million Dutch inhabitants were used to investigate the economic consequence of osteoporosis in the Netherlands in 2010. Specific cohorts were created to identify osteoporosis-related fractures and their costs. Besides, costs of pharmaceutical treatment regarding osteoporosis were included. Using data from the literature, the treatment gap was estimated. Sensitivity analysis was performed on the base-case results. A total of 108,013 individuals with a history of fractures were included in this study. In this population, 59,193 patients were using anti-osteoporotic medication and 86,776 patients were using preventive supplements. A total number of 3,039 osteoporosis-related fractures occurred. The estimated total costs were €465 million. On the basis of data presented in the literature, the treatment gap in our study population was estimated to vary from 60% to 72%. The estimated total costs corrected for treatment gap were €1.15 to €1.64 billion. These results indicate room for improvement in the health care policy against osteoporosis. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Magnitude and Frequency of Floods on Nontidal Streams in Delaware

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries, Kernell G.; Dillow, Jonathan J.A.

2006-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of annual peak flows are required for the economical and safe design of transportation and water-conveyance structures. This report, done in cooperation with the Delaware Department of Transportation (DelDOT) and the Delaware Geological Survey (DGS), presents methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods on nontidal streams in Delaware at locations where streamgaging stations monitor streamflow continuously and at ungaged sites. Methods are presented for estimating the magnitude of floods for return frequencies ranging from 2 through 500 years. These methods are applicable to watersheds exhibiting a full range of urban development conditions. The report also describes StreamStats, a web application that makes it easy to obtain flood-frequency estimates for user-selected locations on Delaware streams. Flood-frequency estimates for ungaged sites are obtained through a process known as regionalization, using statistical regression analysis, where information determined for a group of streamgaging stations within a region forms the basis for estimates for ungaged sites within the region. One hundred and sixteen streamgaging stations in and near Delaware with at least 10 years of non-regulated annual peak-flow data available were used in the regional analysis. Estimates for gaged sites are obtained by combining the station peak-flow statistics (mean, standard deviation, and skew) and peak-flow estimates with regional estimates of skew and flood-frequency magnitudes. Example flood-frequency estimate calculations using the methods presented in the report are given for: (1) ungaged sites, (2) gaged locations, (3) sites upstream or downstream from a gaged location, and (4) sites between gaged locations. Regional regression equations applicable to ungaged sites in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain Physiographic Provinces of Delaware are presented. The equations incorporate drainage area, forest cover, impervious area, basin storage, housing density, soil type A, and mean basin slope as explanatory variables, and have average standard errors of prediction ranging from 28 to 72 percent. Additional regression equations that incorporate drainage area and housing density as explanatory variables are presented for use in defining the effects of urbanization on peak-flow estimates throughout Delaware for the 2-year through 500-year recurrence intervals, along with suggestions for their appropriate use in predicting development-affected peak flows. Additional topics associated with the analyses performed during the study are also discussed, including: (1) the availability and description of more than 30 basin and climatic characteristics considered during the development of the regional regression equations; (2) the treatment of increasing trends in the annual peak-flow series identified at 18 gaged sites, with respect to their relations with maximum 24-hour precipitation and housing density, and their use in the regional analysis; (3) calculation of the 90-percent confidence interval associated with peak-flow estimates from the regional regression equations; and (4) a comparison of flood-frequency estimates at gages used in a previous study, highlighting the effects of various improved analytical techniques.

Geometric relationships for homogenization in single-phase binary alloy systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unnam, J.; Tenney, D. R.; Stein, B. A.

1978-01-01

A semiempirical relationship is presented which describes the extent of interaction between constituents in single-phase binary alloy systems having planar, cylindrical, or spherical interfaces. This relationship makes possible a quick estimate of the extent of interaction without lengthy numerical calculations. It includes two parameters which are functions of mean concentration and interface geometry. Experimental data for the copper-nickel system are included to demonstrate the usefulness of this relationship.

Computation of European carbon balance components through synergistic use of CARBOEUROPE eddy covariance, MODIS remote sensing data and advanced ecosystem and statistical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichstein, M.; Dinh, N.; Running, S.; Seufert, G.; Tenhunen, J.; Valentini, R.

2003-04-01

Here we present spatially distributed bottom-up estimates of European carbon balance components for the year 2001, that stem from a newly built modeling system that integrates CARBOEUROPE eddy covariance CO_2 exchange data, remotely sensed vegetation properties via the MODIS-Terra sensor, European-wide soils data, and a suite of carbon balance models of different complexity. These estimates are able to better constrain top-down atmospheric-inversion carbon balance estimates within the dual-constraint approach for estimating continental carbon balances. The models that are used to calculate gross primary production (GPP) include a detailed layered canopy model with Farquhar-type photosynthesis (PROXELNEE), sun-shade big-leaf formulations operating at a daily time-step and a simple radiation-use efficiency model. These models are parameterized from eddy covariance data through inverse estimation techniques. Also for the estimation of soil and ecosystem respiration (Rsoil, Reco) we profit from a large data set of eddy covariance and soil chamber measurements, that enables us to the parameterize and validate a recently developed semi-empirical model, that includes a variable temperature sensitivity of respiration. As the outcome of the modeling system we present the most likely daily to annual numbers of carbon balance components (GPP, Reco, Rsoil), but we also issue a thorough analysis of biases and uncertainties in carbon balance estimates that are introduced through errors in the meteorological and remote sensing input data and through uncertainties in the model parameterization. In particular, we analyze 1) the effect of cloud contamination of the MODIS data, 2) the sensitivity to the land-use classification (Corine versus MODIS), 3) the effect of different soil parameterizations as derived from new continental-scale soil maps, and 4) the necessity to include soil drought effects into models of GPP and respiration. While the models describe the eddy covariance data quite well with r^2 values always greater than 0.7, there are still uncertainties in the European carbon balance estimate that exceed 0.3 PgC/yr. In northern (boreal) regions the carbon balance estimate is very much contingent on a high-quality filling of cloud contaminated remote sensing data, while in the southern (Mediterranean) regions a correct description of the soil water holding capacity is crucial. A major source of uncertainty also still is the estimation of heterotrophic respiration at continental scales. Consequently more spatial surveys on soil carbon stocks, turnover and history are needed. The study demonstrates that both, the inclusion of considerable geo-biological variability into a carbon balance modeling system, a high-quality cloud screening and gap-filling of the MODIS remote sensing data, and a correct description of soil drought effects are mandatory for realistic bottom-up estimates of European carbon balance components.

Climatological observations in the Philip Smith Mountains of the North Slope, Alaska: Climatology report series No. 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelley, J.J.; Foster, D.

1986-10-01

Climatological data from an automatic weather station (Aanderaa) located at the Alyeska Pipeline Service Company Material Site 117 (MS-117) are presented in this report. Data are listed for hourly averages daily. The data report covers the period 1 August 1985 to 31 May 1986. Observations in this report include wind speed and direction, temperature and barometric pressure. Descriptions of the instrumentation and estimates of reliability are included in the test. Various analyses of the data are presented in the appendices. A summary of the wind and temperature regime is presented through displays of cumulative frequencies of hourly temperatures and windmore » speeds for the 12-month period, June 1985 to May 1986.« less

Estimation of nonpoint source loadings of phosphorus for lakes in the Puget Sound region, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gilliom, Robert J.

1983-01-01

Control of eutrophication of lakes in watersheds undergoing development is facilitated by estimates of the amounts of phosphorus (P) that reach the lakes from areas under various types of land use. Using a mass-balance model, the author calculated P loadings from present-day P concentrations measured in lake water and from other easily measured physical characteristics in a total of 28 lakes in drainage basins that contain only forest and residential land. The loadings from background sources (forest-land drainage and bulk precipitation) to each of the lakes were estimated by methods developed in a previous study. Differences between estimated present-day P loadings and loadings from background sources were attributed to changes in land use. The mean increase in annual P yield resulting from conversion of forest to residential land use was 7 kilograms per square kilometer, not including septic tank system contributions. Calculated loadings from septic systems were found to correlate best with the number of near-shore dwellings around each lake in 1940. The regression equation expressing this relationship explained 36 percent of the sample variance. There was no significant correlation between estimated septic tank system P loadings and number of dwellings present in 1960 or 1970. The evidence indicates that older systems might contribute more phosphorus to lakes than newer systems, and that there may be substantial time lags between septic system installation and significant impacts on lake-water P concentrations. For lakes in basins that contain agricultural land, the P loading attributable to agriculture can be calculated as the difference between the estimated total loading and the sum of estimated loadings from nonagricultural sources. A comprehensive system for evaluating errors in all loading estimates is presented. The empirical relationships developed allow preliminary approximations of the cumulative impact development has had on P loading and the amounts of P loading from generalized land-use categories for Puget Sound lowland lakes. In addition, the sensitivity of a lake to increased loading can be evaluated using the mass-balance model. The data required are presently available for most lakes. Estimates of P loading are useful in developing water-quality goals, setting priorities for lake studies, and designing studies of individual lakes. The suitability of a method for management of individual lakes will often be limited by relatively high levels of uncertainty, especially if the method is used to evaluate relatively small increases in P loading.

A screening-level modeling approach to estimate nitrogen ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This paper presents a screening-level modeling approach that can be used to rapidly estimate nutrient loading and assess numerical nutrient standard exceedance risk of surface waters leading to potential classification as impaired for designated use. It can also be used to explore best management practice (BMP) implementation to reduce loading. The modeling framework uses a hybrid statistical and process based approach to estimate source of pollutants, their transport and decay in the terrestrial and aquatic parts of watersheds. The framework is developed in the ArcGIS environment and is based on the total maximum daily load (TMDL) balance model. Nitrogen (N) is currently addressed in the framework, referred to as WQM-TMDL-N. Loading for each catchment includes non-point sources (NPS) and point sources (PS). NPS loading is estimated using export coefficient or event mean concentration methods depending on the temporal scales, i.e., annual or daily. Loading from atmospheric deposition is also included. The probability of a nutrient load to exceed a target load is evaluated using probabilistic risk assessment, by including the uncertainty associated with export coefficients of various land uses. The computed risk data can be visualized as spatial maps which show the load exceedance probability for all stream segments. In an application of this modeling approach to the Tippecanoe River watershed in Indiana, USA, total nitrogen (TN) loading and risk of standard exce

Comparison study on disturbance estimation techniques in precise slow motion control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, S.; Nagamune, R.; Altintas, Y.; Fan, D.; Zhang, Z.

2010-08-01

Precise low speed motion control is important for the industrial applications of both micro-milling machine tool feed drives and electro-optical tracking servo systems. It calls for precise position and instantaneous velocity measurement and disturbance, which involves direct drive motor force ripple, guide way friction and cutting force etc., estimation. This paper presents a comparison study on dynamic response and noise rejection performance of three existing disturbance estimation techniques, including the time-delayed estimators, the state augmented Kalman Filters and the conventional disturbance observers. The design technique essentials of these three disturbance estimators are introduced. For designing time-delayed estimators, it is proposed to substitute Kalman Filter for Luenberger state observer to improve noise suppression performance. The results show that the noise rejection performances of the state augmented Kalman Filters and the time-delayed estimators are much better than the conventional disturbance observers. These two estimators can give not only the estimation of the disturbance but also the low noise level estimations of position and instantaneous velocity. The bandwidth of the state augmented Kalman Filters is wider than the time-delayed estimators. In addition, the state augmented Kalman Filters can give unbiased estimations of the slow varying disturbance and the instantaneous velocity, while the time-delayed estimators can not. The simulation and experiment conducted on X axis of a 2.5-axis prototype micro milling machine are provided.

PFA toolbox: a MATLAB tool for Metabolic Flux Analysis.

PubMed

Morales, Yeimy; Bosque, Gabriel; Vehí, Josep; Picó, Jesús; Llaneras, Francisco

2016-07-11

Metabolic Flux Analysis (MFA) is a methodology that has been successfully applied to estimate metabolic fluxes in living cells. However, traditional frameworks based on this approach have some limitations, particularly when measurements are scarce and imprecise. This is very common in industrial environments. The PFA Toolbox can be used to face those scenarios. Here we present the PFA (Possibilistic Flux Analysis) Toolbox for MATLAB, which simplifies the use of Interval and Possibilistic Metabolic Flux Analysis. The main features of the PFA Toolbox are the following: (a) It provides reliable MFA estimations in scenarios where only a few fluxes can be measured or those available are imprecise. (b) It provides tools to easily plot the results as interval estimates or flux distributions. (c) It is composed of simple functions that MATLAB users can apply in flexible ways. (d) It includes a Graphical User Interface (GUI), which provides a visual representation of the measurements and their uncertainty. (e) It can use stoichiometric models in COBRA format. In addition, the PFA Toolbox includes a User's Guide with a thorough description of its functions and several examples. The PFA Toolbox for MATLAB is a freely available Toolbox that is able to perform Interval and Possibilistic MFA estimations.

Operational Retrievals of Evapotranspiration: Are we there yet?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neale, C. M. U.; Anderson, M. C.; Hain, C.; Schull, M.; Isidro, C., Sr.; Goncalves, I. Z.

2017-12-01

Remote sensing based retrievals of evapotranspiration (ET) have progressed significantly over the last two decades with the improvement of methods and algorithms and the availability of multiple satellite sensors with shortwave and thermal infrared bands on polar orbiting platforms. The modeling approaches include simpler vegetation index (VI) based methods such as the reflectance-based crop coefficient approach coupled with surface reference evapotranspiration estimates to derive actual evapotranspiration of crops or, direct inputs to the Penman-Monteith equation through VI relationships with certain input variables. Methods that are more complex include one-layer or two-layer energy balance approaches that make use of both shortwave and longwave spectral band information to estimate different inputs to the energy balance equation. These models mostly differ in the estimation of sensible heat fluxes. For continental and global scale applications, other satellite-based products such as solar radiation, vegetation leaf area and cover are used as inputs, along with gridded re-analysis weather information. This presentation will review the state-of-the-art in satellite-based evapotranspiration estimation, giving examples of existing efforts to obtain operational ET retrievals over continental and global scales and discussing difficulties and challenges.

Automated quantification of surface water inundation in wetlands using optical satellite imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeVries, Ben; Huang, Chengquan; Lang, Megan W.; Jones, John W.; Huang, Wenli; Creed, Irena F.; Carroll, Mark L.

2017-01-01

We present a fully automated and scalable algorithm for quantifying surface water inundation in wetlands. Requiring no external training data, our algorithm estimates sub-pixel water fraction (SWF) over large areas and long time periods using Landsat data. We tested our SWF algorithm over three wetland sites across North America, including the Prairie Pothole Region, the Delmarva Peninsula and the Everglades, representing a gradient of inundation and vegetation conditions. We estimated SWF at 30-m resolution with accuracies ranging from a normalized root-mean-square-error of 0.11 to 0.19 when compared with various high-resolution ground and airborne datasets. SWF estimates were more sensitive to subtle inundated features compared to previously published surface water datasets, accurately depicting water bodies, large heterogeneously inundated surfaces, narrow water courses and canopy-covered water features. Despite this enhanced sensitivity, several sources of errors affected SWF estimates, including emergent or floating vegetation and forest canopies, shadows from topographic features, urban structures and unmasked clouds. The automated algorithm described in this article allows for the production of high temporal resolution wetland inundation data products to support a broad range of applications.

Bayesian Hierarchical Grouping: perceptual grouping as mixture estimation

PubMed Central

Froyen, Vicky; Feldman, Jacob; Singh, Manish

2015-01-01

We propose a novel framework for perceptual grouping based on the idea of mixture models, called Bayesian Hierarchical Grouping (BHG). In BHG we assume that the configuration of image elements is generated by a mixture of distinct objects, each of which generates image elements according to some generative assumptions. Grouping, in this framework, means estimating the number and the parameters of the mixture components that generated the image, including estimating which image elements are “owned” by which objects. We present a tractable implementation of the framework, based on the hierarchical clustering approach of Heller and Ghahramani (2005). We illustrate it with examples drawn from a number of classical perceptual grouping problems, including dot clustering, contour integration, and part decomposition. Our approach yields an intuitive hierarchical representation of image elements, giving an explicit decomposition of the image into mixture components, along with estimates of the probability of various candidate decompositions. We show that BHG accounts well for a diverse range of empirical data drawn from the literature. Because BHG provides a principled quantification of the plausibility of grouping interpretations over a wide range of grouping problems, we argue that it provides an appealing unifying account of the elusive Gestalt notion of Prägnanz. PMID:26322548

Estimating the Inertia Matrix of a Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Behcet; Keim, Jason; Shields, Joel

2007-01-01

A paper presents a method of utilizing some flight data, aboard a spacecraft that includes reaction wheels for attitude control, to estimate the inertia matrix of the spacecraft. The required data are digitized samples of (1) the spacecraft attitude in an inertial reference frame as measured, for example, by use of a star tracker and (2) speeds of rotation of the reaction wheels, the moments of inertia of which are deemed to be known. Starting from the classical equations for conservation of angular momentum of a rigid body, the inertia-matrix-estimation problem is formulated as a constrained least-squares minimization problem with explicit bounds on the inertia matrix incorporated as linear matrix inequalities. The explicit bounds reflect physical bounds on the inertia matrix and reduce the volume of data that must be processed to obtain a solution. The resulting minimization problem is a semidefinite optimization problem that can be solved efficiently, with guaranteed convergence to the global optimum, by use of readily available algorithms. In a test case involving a model attitude platform rotating on an air bearing, it is shown that, relative to a prior method, the present method produces better estimates from few data.

Oscillometric Blood Pressure Estimation: Past, Present, and Future.

PubMed

Forouzanfar, Mohamad; Dajani, Hilmi R; Groza, Voicu Z; Bolic, Miodrag; Rajan, Sreeraman; Batkin, Izmail

2015-01-01

The use of automated blood pressure (BP) monitoring is growing as it does not require much expertise and can be performed by patients several times a day at home. Oscillometry is one of the most common measurement methods used in automated BP monitors. A review of the literature shows that a large variety of oscillometric algorithms have been developed for accurate estimation of BP but these algorithms are scattered in many different publications or patents. Moreover, considering that oscillometric devices dominate the home BP monitoring market, little effort has been made to survey the underlying algorithms that are used to estimate BP. In this review, a comprehensive survey of the existing oscillometric BP estimation algorithms is presented. The survey covers a broad spectrum of algorithms including the conventional maximum amplitude and derivative oscillometry as well as the recently proposed learning algorithms, model-based algorithms, and algorithms that are based on analysis of pulse morphology and pulse transit time. The aim is to classify the diverse underlying algorithms, describe each algorithm briefly, and discuss their advantages and disadvantages. This paper will also review the artifact removal techniques in oscillometry and the current standards for the automated BP monitors.

Radioactive liquid wastes discharged to ground in the 200 Areas during 1976

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mirabella, J.E.

An overall summary is presented giving the radioactive liquid wastes discharged to ground during 1976 and since startup (for both total and decayed depositions) within the Production and Waste Management Division control zone (200 Area plateau). Overall summaries are also presented for 200 East Area and for 200 West Area. The data contain an estimate of the radioactivity discharged to individual ponds, cribs and specific retention sites within the Production and Waste Management Division during 1976 and from startup through December 31, 1976; an estimate of the decayed activities from startup through 1976; the location and reference drawings of eachmore » disposal site; and the usage dates of each disposal site. The estimates for the radioactivity discharged and for decayed activities dicharged from startup through December 31, 1976 are based upon Item 4 of the Bibliography. The volume of liquid discharged to the ponds also includes major nonradioactive streams. The wastes discharged during 1976 to each active disposal site are detailed on a month-to-month basis, along with the monthly maximum concentration and average concentration data. An estimate of the radioactivity discharged to each active site along with the remaining decayed activities is given.« less

Valuing recreational fishing quality at rivers and streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melstrom, Richard T.; Lupi, Frank; Esselman, Peter C.; Stevenson, R. Jan

2015-01-01

This paper describes an economic model that links the demand for recreational stream fishing to fish biomass. Useful measures of fishing quality are often difficult to obtain. In the past, economists have linked the demand for fishing sites to species presence-absence indicators or average self-reported catch rates. The demand model presented here takes advantage of a unique data set of statewide biomass estimates for several popular game fish species in Michigan, including trout, bass and walleye. These data are combined with fishing trip information from a 2008-2010 survey of Michigan anglers in order to estimate a demand model. Fishing sites are defined by hydrologic unit boundaries and information on fish assemblages so that each site corresponds to the area of a small subwatershed, about 100-200 square miles in size. The random utility model choice set includes nearly all fishable streams in the state. The results indicate a significant relationship between the site choice behavior of anglers and the biomass of certain species. Anglers are more likely to visit streams in watersheds high in fish abundance, particularly for brook trout and walleye. The paper includes estimates of the economic value of several quality change and site loss scenarios.

Categorical Working Memory Representations are used in Delayed Estimation of Continuous Colors

PubMed Central

Hardman, Kyle O; Vergauwe, Evie; Ricker, Timothy J

2016-01-01

In the last decade, major strides have been made in understanding visual working memory through mathematical modeling of color production responses. In the delayed color estimation task (Wilken & Ma, 2004), participants are given a set of colored squares to remember and a few seconds later asked to reproduce those colors by clicking on a color wheel. The degree of error in these responses is characterized with mathematical models that estimate working memory precision and the proportion of items remembered by participants. A standard mathematical model of color memory assumes that items maintained in memory are remembered through memory for precise details about the particular studied shade of color. We contend that this model is incomplete in its present form because no mechanism is provided for remembering the coarse category of a studied color. In the present work we remedy this omission and present a model of visual working memory that includes both continuous and categorical memory representations. In two experiments we show that our new model outperforms this standard modeling approach, which demonstrates that categorical representations should be accounted for by mathematical models of visual working memory. PMID:27797548

Joint Estimation of Contamination, Error and Demography for Nuclear DNA from Ancient Humans

PubMed Central

Slatkin, Montgomery

2016-01-01

When sequencing an ancient DNA sample from a hominin fossil, DNA from present-day humans involved in excavation and extraction will be sequenced along with the endogenous material. This type of contamination is problematic for downstream analyses as it will introduce a bias towards the population of the contaminating individual(s). Quantifying the extent of contamination is a crucial step as it allows researchers to account for possible biases that may arise in downstream genetic analyses. Here, we present an MCMC algorithm to co-estimate the contamination rate, sequencing error rate and demographic parameters—including drift times and admixture rates—for an ancient nuclear genome obtained from human remains, when the putative contaminating DNA comes from present-day humans. We assume we have a large panel representing the putative contaminant population (e.g. European, East Asian or African). The method is implemented in a C++ program called ‘Demographic Inference with Contamination and Error’ (DICE). We applied it to simulations and genome data from ancient Neanderthals and modern humans. With reasonable levels of genome sequence coverage (>3X), we find we can recover accurate estimates of all these parameters, even when the contamination rate is as high as 50%. PMID:27049965

Passive acoustic monitoring of beaked whale densities in the Gulf of Mexico

PubMed Central

Hildebrand, John A.; Baumann-Pickering, Simone; Frasier, Kaitlin E.; Trickey, Jennifer S.; Merkens, Karlina P.; Wiggins, Sean M.; McDonald, Mark A.; Garrison, Lance P.; Harris, Danielle; Marques, Tiago A.; Thomas, Len

2015-01-01

Beaked whales are deep diving elusive animals, difficult to census with conventional visual surveys. Methods are presented for the density estimation of beaked whales, using passive acoustic monitoring data collected at sites in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) from the period during and following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (2010–2013). Beaked whale species detected include: Gervais’ (Mesoplodon europaeus), Cuvier’s (Ziphius cavirostris), Blainville’s (Mesoplodon densirostris) and an unknown species of Mesoplodon sp. (designated as Beaked Whale Gulf — BWG). For Gervais’ and Cuvier’s beaked whales, we estimated weekly animal density using two methods, one based on the number of echolocation clicks, and another based on the detection of animal groups during 5 min time-bins. Density estimates derived from these two methods were in good general agreement. At two sites in the western GOM, Gervais’ beaked whales were present throughout the monitoring period, but Cuvier’s beaked whales were present only seasonally, with periods of low density during the summer and higher density in the winter. At an eastern GOM site, both Gervais’ and Cuvier’s beaked whales had a high density throughout the monitoring period. PMID:26559743

Estimation of the number of fluorescent end-members for quantitative analysis of multispectral FLIM data.

PubMed

Gutierrez-Navarro, Omar; Campos-Delgado, Daniel U; Arce-Santana, Edgar R; Maitland, Kristen C; Cheng, Shuna; Jabbour, Joey; Malik, Bilal; Cuenca, Rodrigo; Jo, Javier A

2014-05-19

Multispectral fluorescence lifetime imaging (m-FLIM) can potentially allow identifying the endogenous fluorophores present in biological tissue. Quantitative description of such data requires estimating the number of components in the sample, their characteristic fluorescent decays, and their relative contributions or abundances. Unfortunately, this inverse problem usually requires prior knowledge about the data, which is seldom available in biomedical applications. This work presents a new methodology to estimate the number of potential endogenous fluorophores present in biological tissue samples from time-domain m-FLIM data. Furthermore, a completely blind linear unmixing algorithm is proposed. The method was validated using both synthetic and experimental m-FLIM data. The experimental m-FLIM data include in-vivo measurements from healthy and cancerous hamster cheek-pouch epithelial tissue, and ex-vivo measurements from human coronary atherosclerotic plaques. The analysis of m-FLIM data from in-vivo hamster oral mucosa identified healthy from precancerous lesions, based on the relative concentration of their characteristic fluorophores. The algorithm also provided a better description of atherosclerotic plaques in term of their endogenous fluorophores. These results demonstrate the potential of this methodology to provide quantitative description of tissue biochemical composition.

Categorical working memory representations are used in delayed estimation of continuous colors.

PubMed

Hardman, Kyle O; Vergauwe, Evie; Ricker, Timothy J

2017-01-01

In the last decade, major strides have been made in understanding visual working memory through mathematical modeling of color production responses. In the delayed color estimation task (Wilken & Ma, 2004), participants are given a set of colored squares to remember, and a few seconds later asked to reproduce those colors by clicking on a color wheel. The degree of error in these responses is characterized with mathematical models that estimate working memory precision and the proportion of items remembered by participants. A standard mathematical model of color memory assumes that items maintained in memory are remembered through memory for precise details about the particular studied shade of color. We contend that this model is incomplete in its present form because no mechanism is provided for remembering the coarse category of a studied color. In the present work, we remedy this omission and present a model of visual working memory that includes both continuous and categorical memory representations. In 2 experiments, we show that our new model outperforms this standard modeling approach, which demonstrates that categorical representations should be accounted for by mathematical models of visual working memory. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Surface albedo observations at Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum, Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, J.F.; Rice, M.S.; Johnson, J. R.; Hare, T.M.

2008-01-01

During the Mars Exploration Rover mission, the Pancam instrument has periodically acquired large-scale panoramic images with its broadband (739??338 nm) filter in order to estimate the Lambert bolometric albedo of the surface along each rover's traverse. In this work we present the full suite of such estimated albedo values measured to date by the Spirit and Opportunity rovers along their traverses in Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum, respectively. We include estimated bolometric albedo values of individual surface features (e.g., outcrops, dusty plains, aeolian bed forms, wheel tracks, light-toned soils, and crater walls) as well as overall surface averages of the 43 total panoramic albedo data sets acquired to date. We also present comparisons to estimated Lambert albedo values taken from the Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) along the rovers' traverses, and to the large-scale bolometric albedos of the sites from the Viking Orbiter Infrared Thermal Mapper (IRTM) and Mars Global Surveyor/Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES). The ranges of Pancam-derived albedos at Gusev Crater (0.14 to 0.25) and in Meridiani Planum. (0.10 to 0.18) are in good agreement with IRTM, TES, and MOC orbital measurements. These data sets will be a useful tool and benchmark for future investigations of albodo variations with time, including measurements from orbital instruments like the Context Camera and High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Long-term, accurate albedo measurements could also be important for future efforts in climate modeling as well as for studies of active surface processes. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Surface albedo observations at Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum, Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, J. F.; Rice, M. S.; Johnson, J. R.; Hare, T. M.

2008-05-01

During the Mars Exploration Rover mission, the Pancam instrument has periodically acquired large-scale panoramic images with its broadband (739 +/- 338 nm) filter in order to estimate the Lambert bolometric albedo of the surface along each rover's traverse. In this work we present the full suite of such estimated albedo values measured to date by the Spirit and Opportunity rovers along their traverses in Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum, respectively. We include estimated bolometric albedo values of individual surface features (e.g., outcrops, dusty plains, aeolian bed forms, wheel tracks, light-toned soils, and crater walls) as well as overall surface averages of the 43 total panoramic albedo data sets acquired to date. We also present comparisons to estimated Lambert albedo values taken from the Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) along the rovers' traverses, and to the large-scale bolometric albedos of the sites from the Viking Orbiter Infrared Thermal Mapper (IRTM) and Mars Global Surveyor/Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES). The ranges of Pancam-derived albedos at Gusev Crater (0.14 to 0.25) and in Meridiani Planum (0.10 to 0.18) are in good agreement with IRTM, TES, and MOC orbital measurements. These data sets will be a useful tool and benchmark for future investigations of albedo variations with time, including measurements from orbital instruments like the Context Camera and High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Long-term, accurate albedo measurements could also be important for future efforts in climate modeling as well as for studies of active surface processes.

Coal resources of the Alton, Utah, EMRIA site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, William E.; Aigen, A.A.; Landis, Edwin R.

1976-01-01

The estimated original identified coal resources of the Alton, Utah, EMRIA (Energy Minerals Rehabilitation Inventory and Analysis) site--an area of about 3.6 square miles (9.3 square kilometres)--total almost 49 million tons (45 megatonnes). A larger area that surrounds and includes the Alton EMRIA site proper contains estimated original identified coal resources of almost 309 million tons (281 megatonnes). Of these estimated resources in the EMRIA site proper, almost 27 million tons (25 megatonnes) are in beds more than 10 feet thick (3 metres); these beds are overlain by less-than 200 feet (60 metres) of overburden. In the larger area around and including the EMRIA site, about 88.5 million tons (81 megatonnes) are in beds more than ten feet (3 metres) thick with less than 200 feet (60 metres) of overburden. All the estimated resources are in the Smirl zone in the upper part of the Dakota Formation of Cretaceous age. The coal has an apparent rank of subbituminous B, an average heating value of about 9,560 Btu, an average sulfur content of about 1.0 percent, and an average ash content of 7.2 percent. When compared with the average abundance of elements in the crust of the Earth as a whole, only selenium and boron were present in the Alton area coal samples in amounts an order of magnitude greater than the average crustal abundance. Beryllium, fluorine, nickel, zinc, and zirconium are all present in the Alton area samples in amounts that are about an order of magnitude less than the average crustal abundance.

Reference Model 5 (RM5): Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Y. H.; Jenne, D. S.; Thresher, R.

This report is an addendum to SAND2013-9040: Methodology for Design and Economic Analysis of Marine Energy Conversion (MEC) Technologies. This report describes an Oscillating Water Column Wave Energy Converter (OSWEC) reference model design in a complementary manner to Reference Models 1-4 contained in the above report. A conceptual design for a taut moored oscillating surge wave energy converter was developed. The design had an annual electrical power of 108 kilowatts (kW), rated power of 360 kW, and intended deployment at water depths between 50 m and 100 m. The study includes structural analysis, power output estimation, a hydraulic power conversionmore » chain system, and mooring designs. The results were used to estimate device capital cost and annual operation and maintenance costs. The device performance and costs were used for the economic analysis, following the methodology presented in SAND2013-9040 that included costs for designing, manufacturing, deploying, and operating commercial-scale MEC arrays up to 100 devices. The levelized cost of energy estimated for the Reference Model 5 OSWEC, presented in this report, was for a single device and arrays of 10, 50, and 100 units, and it enabled the economic analysis to account for cost reductions associated with economies of scale. The baseline commercial levelized cost of energy estimate for the Reference Model 5 device in an array comprised of 10 units is $1.44/kilowatt-hour (kWh), and the value drops to approximately $0.69/kWh for an array of 100 units.« less

Estimating Achievable Accuracy for Global Imaging Spectroscopy Measurement of Non-Photosynthetic Vegetation Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dennison, P. E.; Kokaly, R. F.; Daughtry, C. S. T.; Roberts, D. A.; Thompson, D. R.; Chambers, J. Q.; Nagler, P. L.; Okin, G. S.; Scarth, P.

2016-12-01

Terrestrial vegetation is dynamic, expressing seasonal, annual, and long-term changes in response to climate and disturbance. Phenology and disturbance (e.g. drought, insect attack, and wildfire) can result in a transition from photosynthesizing "green" vegetation to non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV). NPV cover can include dead and senescent vegetation, plant litter, agricultural residues, and non-photosynthesizing stem tissue. NPV cover is poorly captured by conventional remote sensing vegetation indices, but it is readily separable from substrate cover based on spectral absorption features in the shortwave infrared. We will present past research motivating the need for global NPV measurements, establishing that mapping seasonal NPV cover is critical for improving our understanding of ecosystem function and carbon dynamics. We will also present new research that helps determine a best achievable accuracy for NPV cover estimation. To test the sensitivity of different NPV cover estimation methods, we simulated satellite imaging spectrometer data using field spectra collected over mixtures of NPV, green vegetation, and soil substrate. We incorporated atmospheric transmittance and modeled sensor noise to create simulated spectra with spectral resolutions ranging from 10 to 30 nm. We applied multiple methods of NPV estimation to the simulated spectra, including spectral indices, spectral feature analysis, multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis, and partial least squares regression, and compared the accuracy and bias of each method. These results prescribe sensor characteristics for an imaging spectrometer mission with NPV measurement capabilities, as well as a "Quantified Earth Science Objective" for global measurement of NPV cover. Copyright 2016, all rights reserved.

A variational approach to parameter estimation in ordinary differential equations.

PubMed

Kaschek, Daniel; Timmer, Jens

2012-08-14

Ordinary differential equations are widely-used in the field of systems biology and chemical engineering to model chemical reaction networks. Numerous techniques have been developed to estimate parameters like rate constants, initial conditions or steady state concentrations from time-resolved data. In contrast to this countable set of parameters, the estimation of entire courses of network components corresponds to an innumerable set of parameters. The approach presented in this work is able to deal with course estimation for extrinsic system inputs or intrinsic reactants, both not being constrained by the reaction network itself. Our method is based on variational calculus which is carried out analytically to derive an augmented system of differential equations including the unconstrained components as ordinary state variables. Finally, conventional parameter estimation is applied to the augmented system resulting in a combined estimation of courses and parameters. The combined estimation approach takes the uncertainty in input courses correctly into account. This leads to precise parameter estimates and correct confidence intervals. In particular this implies that small motifs of large reaction networks can be analysed independently of the rest. By the use of variational methods, elements from control theory and statistics are combined allowing for future transfer of methods between the two fields.

Ultrasonic Shear Wave Elasticity Imaging (SWEI) Sequencing and Data Processing Using a Verasonics Research Scanner

PubMed Central

Deng, Yufeng; Rouze, Ned C.; Palmeri, Mark L.; Nightingale, Kathryn R.

2017-01-01

Ultrasound elasticity imaging has been developed over the last decade to estimate tissue stiffness. Shear wave elasticity imaging (SWEI) quantifies tissue stiffness by measuring the speed of propagating shear waves following acoustic radiation force excitation. This work presents the sequencing and data processing protocols of SWEI using a Verasonics system. The selection of the sequence parameters in a Verasonics programming script is discussed in detail. The data processing pipeline to calculate group shear wave speed (SWS), including tissue motion estimation, data filtering, and SWS estimation is demonstrated. In addition, the procedures for calibration of beam position, scanner timing, and transducer face heating are provided to avoid SWS measurement bias and transducer damage. PMID:28092508

Integration of a code for aeroelastic design of conventional and composite wings into ACSYNT, an aircraft synthesis program. [wing aeroelastic design (WADES)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mullen, J., Jr.

1976-01-01

A comparison of program estimates of wing weight, material distribution. structural loads and elastic deformations with actual Northrop F-5A/B data is presented. Correlation coefficients obtained using data from a number of existing aircraft were computed for use in vehicle synthesis to estimate wing weights. The modifications necessary to adapt the WADES code for use in the ACSYNT program are described. Basic program flow and overlay structure is outlined. An example of the convergence of the procedure in estimating wing weights during the synthesis of a vehicle to satisfy F-5 mission requirements is given. A description of inputs required for use of the WADES program is included.

Global Precipitation Measurement: Methods, Datasets and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tapiador, Francisco; Turk, Francis J.; Petersen, Walt; Hou, Arthur Y.; Garcia-Ortega, Eduardo; Machado, Luiz, A. T.; Angelis, Carlos F.; Salio, Paola; Kidd, Chris; Huffman, George J.;